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investing

Stocks vs Bonds vs Commodities

The goal here is to determine the expected return of bonds, stocks, and commodities given current market conditions. I previously addressed stocks vs bonds here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/on11bs/bonds\_vs\_stocks\_and\_short\_term\_returns\_now\_is\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/on11bs/bonds_vs_stocks_and_short_term_returns_now_is_the/). Since then the stock market appears to have peaked, as I expected. However, the bond market is also having a rough go of it. Bonds continue to have a higher expected return than stocks, but neither are expected to be good. For this reason, I’ve been casting about for another place to invest. Real-estate is expensive as well, and I already own plenty. However, I have been hearing that commodities may be the place to be, so I decided to investigate further. I’ve reworked my analysis, and put it at [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BSHryGSdk3idC\_izY14qAa7zdSm\_3LLsZA2MNybyAIg/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BSHryGSdk3idC_izY14qAa7zdSm_3LLsZA2MNybyAIg/edit?usp=sharing). I’ve removed all mentions of real dollars and am now discussing nominal dollars and returns only, as looking at real dollars doubles the number of columns in the spreadsheet and lowers the correlations I find (because I do not know how to predict inflation). Coupons and dividends are reinvested, as before. I’ve also changed how things are organized so that stocks, bonds, and commodities are on a more equal footing. Bonds are just one possible investment, rather than the reference point for stocks. **I use the following predictors / valuation measures:** *Stocks:* Jesse Livermore's Average Investor Equity Allocation (AIEA) has the best performance that I’ve found. Briefly, AIEA is (Stocks Owned) / (Stocks + Bonds + Cash Owned) by the entire market. It can be thought of as a fear/greed indicator, where higher values are greedy and lower values are fearful. AIEA is discussed here: [https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/](https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predictor-of-future-stock-market-returns/), and the raw data is available here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qis). I find a historical R\^2 of 0.86 and a current expected 10 year CAGR of -0.8 +/- 2.5%. *Bonds:* The mechanism used for the model is that the bonds held are traded each month for new bonds at the new interest rate. This takes into account the effect of changing interest rates on the value of bonds held, but not taxes or fees. Coupon payments are reinvested. The given interest rate for the current ten year bond is a good (though not perfect) predictor for what the ten year return will be. The data comes from [http://www.econ.yale.edu/\~shiller/data/ie\_data.xls](http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls) I find a historical R\^2 of 0.88 and a current expected 10 year CAGR of 2.1 +/- 2.0% *Commodities:* I did not find any good suggestions in my searching, and tried a wide range of possibilities. The best predictor that I found was GSCI/GDP. GSCI is S&P’s commodity index, with records back to 1970 here: [https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gsci](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gsci). GDP is the U.S. gross domestic product, with data here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP). This implies that there is a natural level of investment in commodities, compared to GDP. If you know of something better, please let me know. I find a historical R\^2 of 0.64 and a current expected 10 year CAGR of 13.5 +/- 10%. The high uncertainty here is largely because the correlation got markedly worse in 2005, around the time of global financial crisis. Commodities suffered a bubble and pop, with a peak in June of 2008. In addition to the demand fluctuation related to the global financial crisis, this was the time that massive oil and natural gas investment was occurring, which ended up crashing the prices until recently. So it is clear that Commodities have a higher expected return going forward. However, much of this depends on whether you believe that the correlation breakdown in 2005 is permanent or temporary. Personally, I am confident enough to put a sizeable commodities investment in DBC, a commodities futures fund, but not going all in. **Back tests:** As before, I worked out an optimal back tested strategy. With this I find the following CAGRs, from January, 1970 to January, 2021. Stocks only: 10.93% Bonds only: 7.18% Commodities only:6.79% Stock and Bonds: 13.42% Stocks and Commodities and Bonds: 17.18%. For each of these, I use the indicators from six months prior to the current date. This happens to give better results, as well as being possible without a time machine. I switch the entire portfolio to the best investment once a month, where the best investment has a fudge factor. That is, if expected stock return > expected bond return + 0.8%, I go with stocks. Otherwise I go with bonds. If I wish to look at commodities, If find that it almost never a good idea to choose commodities over stocks. However, if expected bonds return > expected commodity return + 0.5%, I stick with bonds. Otherwise, I stay go with commodities. By the time I get to commodities, the model feels over fit, which means that it should used with caution. However, we can still stick with the conclusion that commodities are cheap right now, and likely have much more upside. **Warnings** * Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All back testing requires diligence about when and how past rules may break down in the future. * AIEA measures a natural level for stock vs bond ownership. This is not a fundamental parameter, with an underlying theory about why the natural level should be where it is, or will remain the same in the future. * Though GSCI/GDP feels like it could be fundamental parameter, it leaves out important phenomena, like the changing structure of the economy, as well as paradigm shifts in commodity extraction technology. * I don't take into account taxes or other transaction costs. * My analysis starts in 1970, because that is when the commodities data becomes available. This is a smaller data set than I ‘d like. * I’m using the S&P 500, 10 year US treasuries, and GSCI because they have long data sets, not because I consider them to be optimal investments.

t3_u64m1i

investing

Which trading strategy Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) used?

I recently read about the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) . Can anybody know which strategy they use to get 40% annual return? I want to know all of their strategy. Each and every. Is it possible to find which trading method they are using?? I find one "When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management". It is more dramatic information rather than technical. I want to know every technical details. Can anybody tell very details of their method ??? Any book?? Any Online material ??

t3_u63w5c

investing

Inflation might temper sooner than expected

I was firmly in the camp that inflation and rate hikes are going to be severe this year. Then I thought some more, and wonder if the inflation will die down sooner than I thought (meaning the prior inflated prices will stay, but new inflation going forward will be tempered.) The reason is 2-fold: 1) inflated prices are taking away real purchasing power from consumers. This will hit their pocket books, and wages have never grown faster than inflation in the past decade. Even with this year larger than usual raise, it's still behind inflation. 2) household debts are pretty high, making households sensitive to even small rises in interest rates (same goes for US debt.) this will again depress spending. as long as the US government doesn't hand out more money or forgive tons of debt, the debt overhang effectively act as a deflationary factor. My greatest fear, however, is that if monetary tightening is not enough, there will still be speculative money floating around, causing continued asset prices to rise unreasonably, especially in housing. I have another scenario for rate hikes which I didn't consider before: it's middle of the road between low rates and runaway inflation, and very high rates, moderate to severe recession and low inflation--rate hike to about 3-4%, inflation rate decelerating to 5-6%, mild recession, average 30-year mortgage rates to hit 6-7% this year, and stock market PE to shrink moderately. So not like a catastrophic scenario. Anybody poke some holes in my theory? And I hear people saying that interest rate needs to be higher than inflation rate in order to tamp down inflation. I don't understand the reasoning behind it. Why does it require 9+% interest rate to battle a 9% inflation rate? If someone can enlighten me on this, that would be appreciated.

t3_u63673

investing

How to trade SPX option during night time?

[https://go.cboe.com/24x5](https://go.cboe.com/24x5) Above link shows that it can be traded nearly 24x5. But I don't see how to trade it outside normal trading hours on brokerage trading platform. I have TD Ameritrade account and webull account. Thanks.

t3_u60tak

investing

Bond Rout Promises More Pain for Investors

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-rout-promises-more-pain-for-investors-11650122040?mod=hp_lead_pos3 The worst bond rout in decades shows few signs of abating, threatening further pain for both investors and borrowers. Rising Treasury yields are in many ways a reflection of a robust economy. A big reason why many investors expect continued high inflation in the near term is that households are flush with cash and eager to spend their money on travel and leisure activities as they begin to worry less about the Covid-19 pandemic. The labor market is also, by some measures, the tightest in decades, giving workers leverage to demand better wages and confidence that they can always find a different job if they lose their current one. These forces, though, are precisely why the Fed has been trying to push up bond yields by promising a rapid series of interest-rate increases—an effort whose urgency hasn’t been diminished by a modestly encouraging inflation report last week. Many investors are saying they expect bond prices to continue to fall this year, and ***some contend it won’t be clear that the central bank’s message is getting through until stock prices suffer more serious declines.*** Treasury yields largely reflect expectations for short-term rates over the life of a bond. They in turn set a floor on borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed, now, wants borrowing costs to rise to slow consumer demand and bring down inflation—and it is succeeding at least in the first of goals, with the average 30-year mortgage climbing last week to 5% for the first time since 2011. One hope of some bond investors is that surging consumer prices, coupled with higher borrowing costs, could slow consumer demand in relatively short order. In that case, the Fed could keep tightening monetary policy, but officials wouldn’t feel the need to raise their rate forecasts further, allowing bond yields to stabilize. Guessing the final destination of interest rates is extremely difficult, he said, but ***one sign that the Fed might need to do more than currently expected is that stocks, as a whole, have only experienced modest declines, with the S&P 500 down 7.8% year-to-date.*** --- Caveat Emptor people. #Don't fight the Fed.

t3_u60cpp

investing

What's the quickest way for a Gen Z'er to own real estate in this economy?

I've been investing in the market for a year and I've been studying the overall markets/stock market since I was 18-19 ish. I'm very conservative and figured I'd rather learn more since my small amount of money wouldn't matter in the short term. eventually I started working more and I went from basically no debt, barely any Net worth to a now no debt, 10k net worth within a year (investing made me really see the value in money so I worked more to spam buy VTI and other such things) I wanted to build a good source of passive income that's truly useful to me combined with being able to cycle it from my stocks portfolio to real estate to stocks again, in a sort of loop. and real estate sounds like the best bet, as well as giving me a place to stay. However, we all know how hard it is to buy a house right now, and especially if you're just starting from scratch like I am. I am wondering if it's better to just tune off the breaks for stock market investing and to move my efforts to real estate but the stock market seems so simple compared to real estate, and I really would love to be so proud of owning a home or anything for that matter. But the sad reality is, mostly everybody around my age of 21-22 will never own anything and most think they won't own anything either. I do not want to be a self fulfilling prophecy and I want to try as hard as I can. But how does one get started? is this even the right sub for this or should I try a real estate focused sub?

t3_u5zpo6

investing

Tax efficient investing after retirement accounts

So I have the benefit of being able to fully max my 401(k), IRA, and HSA each year. Generally speaking, I split my contributions between traditional and after-tax dollars. My employer does not permit after-tax contributions to my 401(k), so I can't participate in a MEGA backdoor Roth. Additional contributions that I make are going to a taxable brokerage account. I've done well in 2022 and I'm looking at a large tax bill for next year's taxes. There's probably nothing I can do about 2022, but what are some alternative ways to set up to reduce your tax bill on investment gains for relatively frequent trading? BESIDES the obvious answer of "don't sell your investments to trigger a realized, taxable gain", are there other legal entities such as partnerships or setting up a corporation that could help reduce taxes on gains from year to year? Other methods?

t3_u5ys58

investing

Bonds vs. Stocks Discussion

This is a mostly discussed topic, Bonds vs choosing Stocks. Financial advisors said you should invest 60% stocks 40% bonds to mitigate the risk from stocks. WallStreetBets people think you should go full on options, which I'm not very comfortable with that much risks. How many people here are actually following 60-40 rule? And is this investment strategy really effective? Can anyone shed a light please?

t3_u5yolp

investing

All options for borrowing against home equity?

Thinking about investing a second home. I want to explore borrowing the equity on my current home to partially fund the down payment. What are all of my options? I heard about some methods and understand the risks. I just want to learn what all possible options I have here to make an informed decision in the future. Thanks ahead of time

t3_u5ybm3

investing

Investments that Cash flow that arent Real Estate?

Basically the title. What kind of investments are out there that generate consistent income that don't involve the purchase, maintenance and upkeep of real estate? I.e. You invest in it, it generates money on a monthly/quarterly/time goes here basis if you play your cards right, and generally doesn't swing wildly in the amount it returns to you

t3_u5y549

investing

Minimum income needed to invest comfortably to make 1 million before 30?

Hello, 20M software engineering major here GameStop made a lot of people hundreds of thousands, and I know that trying to get rich quickly comes with its risks, but what minimum income is needed to invest comfortably to meet this goal? Also, how would I get there? GameStop? Crypto? Real estate? Options?

t3_u5y2t1

investing

What type of account should I invest in if I want to retire early?

I am confused on which type of investing accounts I should invest my money in if I plan to use the 4% rule and live off my Investments. I currently have a regular brokerage account and a Roth IRA but am concerned if I can live off these when I retire due to the taxes on the regular brokerage and the limits on the Roth. Should I open a Traditional IRA or max out Roth then invest in my regular brokerage? Thanks! Background: 19M wanting to retire before 35. Reinvest all dividends.

t3_u5xsq1

investing

Vanguard LifeStrategy 100% Equity or VUSA (S&P 500 UCITS ETF) or..

Hi all, I live in the UK and I have been regularly investing £300 which is 16% of my salary every month in the Vanguard life strategy 100% Equity fund for a year. At the moment I have around £10k (as I have transferred some lump sums | had saved). I am not sure if I should keep investing in this blended fund or a lower fee ETF? I am now 24 years old and my intention is to just keep investing a fixed percentage every month but I am now unsure which option is the best. Another option is the FTSE global all cap. Any help, is much appreciated!

t3_u5vpwp

investing

How do you manage risk in your portfolio?

Is there a good way to measure how risky your current portfolio is? I’ve looked at indicators like beta, sharpe ratio, and sortino ratio in the past, but I’m not sure how to actually use it to manage my portfolio. Are there other indicators for things like interest rate risk? Or is managing risk really just about understanding the individual companies and sectors you’re invested in?

t3_u5vdw4

investing

Special Dividends question

Stock is paying 2.13 special dividend. Stock is $3.10 buy side. If i buy 10,000 shares the dividend is $21,000 . So a purchase of $31,000 turns into $52,000 after dividend payout. Barring massive price drop, this seems like a solid investment. Am i missing something? Thanks for input.

t3_u5sr4f

investing

Is it reasonable to expect S&P 500 ETF return rates to continue averaging ~10.5% in the future?

I know that Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 recession, has said that he thinks it is a "dangerous bubble" and that he is expecting an "epic crash." Do you agree? Moreover, is it reasonable to expect S&P 500 ETF return rates to continue averaging \~10.5% in the future?

t3_u5tkb4

investing

i started investing with little money.

Hey everyone i have a question. so i started investing with little money. I put my first 500$ in vanguard etf. I intend to put like 50 every month. Im 25 and i have a long term plan to do it for like 15-20 years or something. Do you think its worth it. I think the amount is really small but thats what i can invest unfortunately.

t3_u5r59s

investing

Thanks to Margin I made $300k in TSLA but I don’t like margin calls. Wouldn’t a home equity loan be better?

It sucked when brokerage sold part of my positions when TSLA dropped 20% then recovered in a few days but not prior to Fidelity selling some of my position. To avoid this shouldn’t a home equity loan be a better choice? No margin call and lower interest rate ! Yes I know about collateral risk I’ve considered that so don’t waste your time schooling me into a risk I’m willing to take. Home equity loan better to margin loan? What’s your experience?

t3_u5odbb

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 17, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u5j6gg

investing

Confused about choosing Accumulation or income S&P 500 fund

HI all, hoping someone can help with this. Not sure whether to choose an accumulation or income fund option. I understand the differences between the two but wondered am I better off selecting Income, and setting a manual reinvest in the broker app. This way I could potentially turn off compounding if I ever needed the dividends paid out. Does that make sense as an option and would there be any issues here?

t3_u51j0t

investing

How do I calculate margin requirements with portfolio margin? [Example below]

On [tdameritrade's website](https://www.tdameritrade.com/investment-products/margin-trading/portfolio-margin.html) they give this example of how to calculate the margin requirement of a Collar trade. * Long 10,000 shares of  XYZ @ 97.73 * Long 100 XYZ April 95 Puts @ 1.02 * Short 100 XYZ April 105 Calls @ .40 They say the margin requirement is 33,500. How is this formulated?Can someone work me through the math?

t3_u526tf

investing

YTD Top 25 Stocks S&P 500: Take a look and see how many of you were in this Sector?

Here are the top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 year to date. Take a look at the sectors and first figure out how much you have invested in these sectors and compare your returns YTD to these. None of these moves are a surprise as most prognosticators outside of Cathy Woods were telling us this is where we should be concentrating since 3rd Qtr of 2021. Stocktwits provides this information for free each week as well as the ability to share your thoughts on your stocks via a twitter like format. https://imgur.com/OfIBbuX

t3_u57akr

investing

Is P/E ratio still a good indicator for deciding which stocks to invest in?

I remember reading long ago that 15:1 was a good P/E ratio for a company. I just saw that Disney is trading at 77:1 and who knows about many other high flyers. I understand that some companies are in growth mode, and may not even have earnings, but what about all the others? I understand there isn’t just one metric, but spending $77 to generate $1 in earnings sounds crazy. Does it make sense to start by focus on companies with low P/E ratio?

t3_u559cn

investing

Investing in Colombian Emeralds?

Anybody invest in emeralds? Thinking about diversifying a bit into them. Thoughts on investing in Colombian emeralds? How liquid would they be, and how has their track record upscale (or lack thereof) been? Could not find much info when Googling its's performance history.

t3_u51w6y

investing

What will happen if an online broker just disappear?

Hey. I am new in the world of investing and i want to make my first steps although a little afraid. I want to buy an etf for long term but my only problem is what will happen if let's say Degiro website just disappear? If the go broke and just close the site. How am i safe? If i can't login to my account to retrieve anything? This is the only thing stopping me right now from buying.

t3_u4wn1v

investing

Upcoming phosphorus shortage (?) as an investment opportunity

Howdy folks, I was listening to a podcast last night (it's not in English so I'm not going to link it here) with a paleo-climatologist talking about global warming/climate change and all that interesting and often controversial stuff. Not the point. One thing he noted, however, is the availability and use of phosphorus for food production. He claimed that humans cannot artificially synthesize P and that it is crucial for food production and that it will be the new oil in a decade. Some studies and articles related to this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18326-7 https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/farmers-are-facing-a-phosphorus-crisis-the-solution-starts-with-soil Has anyone here done some research on this topic? Is this an investment opportunity worth pursuing, in your opinion?

t3_u4wke3

investing

Is there a way to evaluate bond investment opportunities like using the Graham number formula for evaluating stock investments? I am looking at the Canadian Government Bond Index ETF, as I thought a bond index would be a good place to start. Any help?

From my point of view, bonds are more difficult to understand than stocks in terms of assessing their inherent value, but that is probably because I have mainly been working with stocks in my portfolio. Can anyone suggest resources to learn more about the bond market?

t3_u4w6id

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 16, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u4tt04

investing

how does one invest in MIT?

Just guessing the engineers and department at MIT aren't publicly trade but I'd like to [invest in this](https://news.mit.edu/2022/thermal-heat-engine-0413#:~:text=Engineers%20at%20MIT%20and%20the,that%20of%20traditional%20steam%20turbines.)

t3_u4n9vy

investing

Are there fees when trying to buy Schwab ETFs through your VG brokerage?

Interested in buying some SCHD into my vanguard personal brokerage account. But I can’t tell if VG will charge me a fee for doing this or not. If they do, then I guess it wouldn’t be worth it for just doing a share here and there when I get some extra cash. I also have a Robinhood account. Would I just be better off buying it there? Thanks.

t3_u4kxlm

investing

Ten Members Of International Stock Manipulation Ring Charged In Manhattan Federal Court

Global “Pump-and-Dump” Scheme Targeted Retail Investors and Generated Over $100 Million in Illicit Proceeds: https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/ten-members-international-stock-manipulation-ring-charged-manhattan-federal-court This is just one of the juicy parts: >First, the defendants and their co-conspirators secretly amassed control of the vast majority of the stock of certain publicly traded companies that were traded on the over-the-counter (“OTC”) market in the United States. Second, the defendants and their co-conspirators then manipulated the price and trading volume for these stocks, causing the share price and trading volume to become artificially inflated, through coordinated trading and false and misleading promotional campaigns that they funded. I am *really* curious on which stocks on the OTC market were impacted. I wonder how many people on /r/pennystocks fell victim to it. The whole indictment is an interesting read, I recommend reading the full thing.

t3_u4ko6u

investing

Are PLTR and AFRM good picks for dollar cost averaging?

Peter Thiel is one of the founders of Palantir. I just read his book Zero to One, and it was no secret that he’s a genius with uncanny foresight and a data driven mind - but reading his book solidified it for me. He outlined how Palantir has done some truly mind blowing things in terms of data mining. And with the web becoming evermore interwoven into our lives, being able to invest in a company in that industry seems like a good choice. The appeal of Affirm lies in the fact that it’s in online sales. Folks shop online continuously, Affirm helps them do it when they can’t quite make payment for the things they really need.

t3_u4kbq5

investing

Rules for withdrawing contributions from Roth IRA account?

Hello all. As I await for my tax advisor to get back to me, I hit some financial issues and am in need of some immediate funds. I am not clear on the rules for withdrawing contributions for a Roth IRA account. My account is more than 5 years old. Am I allowed to withdraw contributions only without incurring any penalty? I can't imagine you would have to pay taxes on this since this was taxed money that was invested to begin with. Are there any other gotchas I have to worry about? I would think that I would have the option to choose what kind of withdraw to make, such as FIFO, but I'm not getting any of those options when I get to the point of withdrawing. Any help would be appreciated. And I know this isn't the ideal situation (my apologies if this is the wrong sub - figured the majority would know best in here). Thanks.

t3_u4j1p9

investing

Twitter board adopts ‘poison pill’ after Musk’s $43 billion bid to buy company

**Note:** The term poison pill refers to a defense strategy used by a target firm to prevent or discourage a potential hostile takeover by an acquiring company. Potential targets use this tactic in order to make them look less attractive to the potential acquirer: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/poisonpill.asp **Article:** https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/15/twitter-board-adopts-poison-pill-after-musks-43-billion-offer-to-buy-company.html Twitter adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan, often called a “poison pill,” a day after billionaire Elon Musk offered to buy the company for $43 billion, the company announced Friday. The board voted unanimously to adopt the plan. Under the new structure, if any person or group acquires beneficial ownership of at least 15% of Twitter’s outstanding common stock without the board’s approval, other shareholders will be allowed to purchase additional shares at a discount. The plan is set to expire on April 14, 2023. Such a move is a common way to fend off a potential hostile takeover by diluting the stake of the entity eying the takeover. “The Rights Plan will reduce the likelihood that any entity, person or group gains control of Twitter through open market accumulation without paying all shareholders an appropriate control premium or without providing the Board sufficient time to make informed judgments and take actions that are in the best interests of shareholders,” the company said in a press release. Twitter noted that the rights plan would not prevent the board from accepting an acquisition offer if the board deems it in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. Musk already owns a more than 9% stake in Twitter as revealed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing last week. Soon after his stake became public, Twitter’s CEO announced plans for Musk to join the board. But days later, Musk reversed course and decided not to join the board after all. If he had joined, Musk would not be allowed to accumulate more than 14.9% of beneficial ownership of the company’s outstanding common stock. Also on Friday, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources, that Twitter brought on JPMorgan to help respond to Musk’s bid. Twitter had already been working with Goldman Sachs and Musk has been working with Morgan Stanley. Several outlets including The New York Post reported Twitter was also fielding interest from Thoma Bravo, though it’s still uncertain a bid will materialize, according to sources who spoke to Reuters. JPMorgan has history with Musk, suing Tesla over a matter related to his 2018 tweet claiming he had “funding secured” to take the company private. Tesla later countersued the bank. JPMorgan, Twitter and Thoma Bravo declined comment. In a live-streamed interview at the TED2022 conference in Vancouver on Thursday, Musk laid out his vision for making Twitter’s algorithms more publicly accessible and limiting content moderation. He also acknowledged he’s “not sure” if he’ll actually be able to buy Twitter, though he said he does have “sufficient assets” to fund the deal if accepted. Despite his fortune, Musk has much of his assets tied up in equity in his companies including Tesla, meaning he’d likely have to liquidate or borrow against his assets to come up with a large sum. But Musk said “there is” a Plan B if his initial offer to buy the company and take it private, which he called his “best and final,” is rejected. He declined to provide further details in the TED interview. On Friday, Twitter’s former CEO and current board member Jack Dorsey tweeted that “the real issue” is that “as a public company, twitter has always been ‘for sale.’”

t3_u4ht6s

investing

Is there a place to park my money in robinhood (or similar) for a downpayment?

Thanks to previous posts I know that for my situation (want to buy a house in 3-5 years) I should gets bonds etc, but I'm wondering if anyone knows of an option that can be done with robinhood (or similar app since I'm thinking of ditching robinhood anyway) since I like the convenience of seeing all your $ and returns at once, from an app. Basically the past couple years I've saved 75k putting into what I thought were low-medium risk (Index funds + MSFT, DHR, QQQ, HD, BABA, GOOGL) - overall return is -3%. Discover savings account is at 0.05%, better than my -3% investing skills but I'd still be losing $ to inflation. I see a few bond ETFs on robinhood but those all have negative returns somehow....

t3_u4h5js

investing

Hey everyone i want to start investing.

Hey everyone, so probably this is frequent asked but: I am 27 years old and i kinda landed a pretty stable job. I have an emergency account and i would like to start investing. Everyone is telling about etfs. I know what they are and everything but i am too scared to start investing as it's my first steps in this world. I can afford 50-100 dollars per month to add to the etf. Do you think it's worth it starting investing in etfs in my age. My plan is to just put some money there and let it grow over the years for like 20-25 years. I just need the first push from guys with more knowledge than me. Is it really worth starting now.

t3_u4g2k9

investing

Twitter Brings on JPMorgan to assist in talks with potential buyers

Twitter Inc. has brought on a second investment bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., to help it respond to Elon Musk’s hostile bid, according to people familiar with the matter. The largest U.S. bank started work recently to assist Twitter in talks with potential buyers, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. Source: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-15/twitter-brings-on-jpmorgan-as-adviser-alongside-goldman](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-15/twitter-brings-on-jpmorgan-as-adviser-alongside-goldman)

t3_u4fh7b

investing

Unexplained funds in IRA?

I finished contributing to my Vanguard Roth IRA for 2021 and noticed $750 showed up in the account for 2022 that I did not contribute. I checked my bank account which is the only account attached to my IRA account for transfers and there is nothing showing $750 coming out of there. It also does not show the $750 on my IRA transaction history. Any ideas?

t3_u4dtdw

investing

Opinions Needed: Employee Share Buy In Plan. 15% discounted shares. How much should I invest?

Hi everyone! I get to choose whether to take 1% - 10% to buy 15% discounted company shares. How would you think about which percentage to choose? It's my first year working, not much in savings. But I do like my paychecks atm. I appreciate all input Edit: I want to thank everyone for your help & perspective. It’s very much appreciated. I decided to max out my contributions

t3_u4cupj

investing

Investing in the Past as Entertainment and Education

Does anyone know of a trading platform that has simulation of the past? Like a sort of 'live historical stock market data paper-trader' where you can make all the plays you wish you would have. Works near identical to a regular paper trading platform, except you can set the date back and fast-forward/rewind through time.

t3_u49d80

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 15, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u43um0

investing

Where can I simulate the effect of a large market order on the current buy/sell market.

E.g. if I wanted to instantly sell 10,000 shares of a company but only 5,000 buy orders are at the listed price, 2,000 at the next lowest, etc. Obviously I'd get diminishing returns on those sales as the buy orders went down in price. I know how to see a market depth chart but I haven't been able to find a service or calculator for actually pricing against it. I know NASDAQ level 2 does this but it's private.

t3_u3wn02

investing

Should I keep it to one brokerage account?

Hi! I am still a pretty new investor. I have an IRA with Fidelity and also a brokerage account in which I invest in index funds. I have decided to invest some in individual company stocks and thought about using E*Trade for that because it seems easy. Is this a good idea or should I keep all of my investing (both index funds and individual stocks) in the same brokerage account?

t3_u3wm21

investing

Need more knowledgeable Bond experts

Well, as rates rise, more people are asking about Bonds. There is a subreddit /r/bonds. There isn't much traffic, or seemingly much knowledge if I'm there with my speculative angle on that market. But that can change! Join me in helping them! I know there are some actual fixed income people here.... Sorry if this breaks the rules.

t3_u3uym5

investing

What am I missing about $GOOGL?

Google has: *Nearly its lowest P/E since 2015 *Still putting up insane growth numbers YoY *At a roughly 9 month low and very strong support *Obviously a very strong future with tons of investment in research and development (particularly cloud computing and working on autonomous cars) *Stock split coming up that could have a bit of upside Especially with continued earnings growth it just looks like such a good spot. I know it had an insane (65%!) 2021, but the P/E ratio actually went down since then, which would mean the market was just pricing in (and technically underpricing because P/E dropped) the earnings growth throughout 2021. So yea, it looks really good to me I am just wondering what other people's thoughts are on $GOOGL, and if I am missing anything about this because it just seems like an incredibly good deal to me at this spot.

t3_u3tufz

investing

What are some investment ideas that are atypical but can have great returns?

What are some investment strategies that you have utilized that may take a little upfront work, but have great returns in the long run? And no, mutual funds, stocks, ETFs and buying rental properties have all been talked to death here. I'm more asking about something not everybody thinks about, but are actually great strategies that have worked for you. Thanks.

t3_u3stlu

investing

Trying to understand 10 year yields, help?

"The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates. It's also seen as a sign of investor sentiment about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments." - Investopedia. If this is true then why has the 10 year yield gone up and stocks gone down since January? Any help? Seems like the higher the 10 year yield goes the lower the stock market goes. Trying to better understand bonds. 🤔

t3_u3pc3z

investing

I have been looking at either Devon or Marathon as a potential buy

Longer question. I have been researching the annual percentage increases of either Devon Energy (DVN) or Marathon Oil (MRO) and wondered if the community had any thoughts on things to consider for or against for each. Please delete if this too specific.

t3_u3nr55

investing

I honestly think Xebec Adsorption ($XBC) is going to triple in 2-3 months. Please read my analysis and see if you agree!

Xebec is now (as of yesterday) the world's largest carbon capture and storage project, with pre-existing operations in hydrogen energy and gas filtration, while also working with 8 European countries (includes Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway) with its subsidiary HyGear to produce green fuel for aviation. Its total assets after debt are £301.33m (so their market cap of £205m is actually backed by that and more unlike majority of other firms). Revenue for Q4 was £45.90m and actually reported a PROFIT which was higher than expected (although FY21 net loss margin 18.6%). Forecasts, as they have for months, see it in slight net loss for next year or two, but anything can happen). I've been doing this stuff for a few years now and honestly this is just such a unique opportunity right now. Especially being under $3. My biggest holding by far. Go check the current 5 year chart and it'll blow your mind.

t3_u3iq4e

investing

Commodity ETFs - risk tolerance and possible inflation hedge?

Good day all - I'm researching various commodity ETFs in an effort to hedge against inflation. Currently the majority of my holdings are in stocks (\~30%) and an investment property (\~60%). This is disregarding my 401k which is managed in a diversified lifecycle fund (I max this out and pretend it doesn't exist). I've done some research (admittedly not enough) and believe that commodities are a good way to hedge against inflation (regarding my non-retirement investments). Rather than going out and buying copper/cows/soy/gold, I've found several ETF's that would allow me some exposure. I went to buy shares of JJC (copper futures ETF) through fidelity and had to agree to a "high risk" investment via an online disclosure. A few questions: 1. I know that some investments can lead to theoretical infinite losses (i.e. shorting a stock). I assume that investing in a commodities ETF (i.e. JJC) limits my loss to my total investment - is this correct? For example if I purchase $1000 worth of JJC, my maximum loss is $1000? 2. Are these ETF's subject to bubbles? I don't mean copper bubbles, but ETF speculation bubbles? I guess what I'm trying to say is that as ETF positions are purchased, does that money get put into actual commodity purchases by the ETF and more shares issued, or will increased demand in ETF drive up prices of the ETF because no new shares are created? Hope that made sense. 3. Are there any good resources you can recommend for getting smart on commodity ETFs? Why are they considered so risky? I know these are rookie questions - please don't hurt me. I'd like to purchase more of these (i.e. wheat, soy, gold). As I understand they are mostly investment tools as they typically inverse stock market gains. I do believe we're in for a stock market correction but I'd rather hedge than liquidate my stock positions.

t3_u3hexb

investing

Since everyone is big on I-bonds right now, allow me to make an argument AGAINST them

**While no one can predict the future, I am using historical data to argue that your average rate might be as low as 2.2%.** [https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/IBondRateChart.pdf](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/IBondRateChart.pdf) If I'm reading this chart correctly, the first column is your "fixed" locked in minimum rate. If you buy a bond now, your "fixed" rate will be 0% and will fluctuate each 6 months. Every time you buy a bond, the fixed rate is different. The best time period was if you bought between May and Oct of 2000, when the fixed rate was 3.6%. Those people (if they still own their bonds) will be making 10.85% right now, compared to new buyers making 7.12%. Since the current fixed rate is 0%, I will compare to another time when the rate was 0%. 2008 gives us the the longest time period for comparison, and averages to 2.16% 2011 gives us 2.01% 2015 gives us 2.16% 2020 gives us 3.35% Now, all this being said, inflation might stay very high for the next 5-10 years, in which case the rate will stay generously high also. But since I hadn't heard anything truly contrarian yet, I wanted to play devil's advocate.

t3_u33khr

investing

Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter for $41.39 billion

After taking a 9.2% stake in twitter, Elon musk has now offered to buy the entire company for $41.39 billion. This comes after some recent news announcement of Elon Musk not accepting the board seat position at Twitter because of some alleged background check. According to Twitter CEO, Parag Agarwal, Twitter and Elon couldn’t come to an agreement regarding the board. Parag notified his employees that there could soon be noise around the company. Twitter shares closed at a market cap of around $36.7 billion as of Wednesday. Shares are up 11% pre market as of this writing.

t3_u3eaw3

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 14, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u3cxzs

investing

Has the age of robotics and automation peaked?

I've been in the iShares Automation & Robotics and although I think the future is going to be in these sectors the ETF has been pounded down in recent months. Is this a really badly balanced ETF for this sector, is the future not in these underlying companies or is it just irrational markets now?

t3_u3c85d

investing

I hardly resist buying EDV (extended term treasury STRIPS).

I hardly resist buying EDV and making it 10% of my portfolio, even though my portfolio is composed of 100% stock index funds according to my long-term investment strategy. The news is terrible for the bond market, especially for long-term bonds: inflation is reaching its 40-year high, oil prices are high and could rise even more due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and a possible oil embargo on Russia. Higher oil prices could lead to even higher inflation. The Fed has already announced multiple interest rate hikes over the next 3 years. And all this terrible news is already priced in the bonds! I understand that buying EDV today means market timing, but I hardly resist buying it.

t3_u3at2d

investing

how do I explain to my smaller sibling that literally everything is investing?

I hear this from them that they do not want to invest and only want to spend their money. So I tried explaining that actually everything is an investment, if you buy a meal you enjoy, you’re investing your money in exchange for satiety, if you pay to do something you like, that’s an investment too, literally everything is an investment. I want them to think like this, because ever since I started thinking like this, everything became better. I would seek out the value in everything instead of just buying and selling things, value was something I could finally perceive. And now that crypto is becoming a real commerce tool with projects like Binance Pay and Exeno, I feel like I’ll be spending money much more easily. Since I’ll be paying in crypto directly, I’ll be directly pulling out profit to spend, which is why I need this mindset more than ever. I need to explain to him that investing early is crucial. And that understanding where your money goes is elemental. There’s one way that I could get him to spend money with the most fulfilment and it’s like that. Investing isn’t just buying a stock and selling it, it goes way deeper than that, it’s part of our every day life, and I wish more people understood this.

t3_u392xs

investing

Alleghany shareholder sues to block $11.6 billion Berkshire buyout over lack of disclosures

Alleghany Corp, which agreed last month to be acquired by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc, was sued on Wednesday by a shareholder who accused the insurance company of making inadequate and misleading disclosures about the $11.6 billion takeover. In a complaint filed in Manhattan federal court, the plaintiff Shiva Stein said Alleghany failed in a proxy statement to adequately explain the financial basis for the "fairness opinion" issued by its bankers at Goldman Sachs, which assessed whether the deal was fair to shareholders.

t3_u33xkn

investing

what will happen when artificial intelligence is used in the markets

I'm sure it is already Ofcourse but I'm talking about when it gets to the point where whoever has the technology is guaranteed to always win. They know exactly where and when the markets will move. Backed by billions of dollars There has to be and will be point where tech and government Influence on the markets will just be too much and all the other players stop playing as they see it as fixed . The way the markets have been the last 100 years won't be the future , it just won't work anymore .

t3_u33wj4

investing

apps similar to My Stock Portfolio?

I currently use Vanguard for all my investing but as everyone knows, their app and reporting is shit. I love MSP but I have to enter every transaction. So, is there a similar app out there but one that can connect to Vanguard? Would love to here what everyone else uses

t3_u33t10

investing

Is FB is a solid long term buy?

After the recent price drop it seems unlikely the price could hurdle downward super significantly in the near future, unless the company itself also goes out of business entirely, which also seems extremely unlikely. I think the real bet here is, if Facebook goes out of business. If they do money will be lost on the investment. If they don’t then long term there likely could be profitability. Even if not to the same extent as just a broad equity index fund

t3_u32n29

investing

The real reason for "Record" profits.

Does anyone else think that it would just make sense that companies report higher profits during a period of inflation? Seems like the political spin is greed, but for investing this could show some new signs to look for. I've been thinking about starting to try and make "inflation-corrected" numbers when looking at company earnings. What do you guys think is this just obvious, or is their a flaw in my thinking? Thanks for any feedback

t3_u2rd6a

investing

Question about AT&T spin-off and WBD

I just had AT&T do the spin-off and got new shares of WBD. On my apps. should my $T and $WBD shares both display a new "average cost" after a while? Because didn't the spin-off lead to recalculation of the basis for those shares? I hope this question makes sense. Thank you!

t3_u2rckf

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 13, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u2m0sj

investing

Real Estate vs Index Fund

I just made up my mind to pump money into my life over the next decade. Since Jan I’ve been saving 75% of my income in an account labeled “Investments” and have narrowed things down to Fidelity index fund FNTEX or rental properties. I can’t see a benefit of rentals over index funds but lots of people buy rentals. Just asking for some perspective. Thanks.

t3_u2hbg2

investing

Is acorns a legitimate way to invest?

Delete if not okay, but I didn’t want to post to the acorns sub bc of bias As the title says, is acorns an okay thing to use to invest with stocks? For example, about 52% of my money invests into large companies, like Apple and Amazon, then with 10% into midsize companies and the rest is into small companies, some international companies, and a bitcoin etf. Is this relatively good? Because my investing sucks ass atm and was wondering if this is an okay way to invest my money?

t3_u2gv52

investing

Buying I-bonds today will yield a guaranteed return of 8.37% in the next 12 months. What is the case for not maxing this out?

Why would I not max this out? I understand that I-bonds exist to simply keep up with inflation and if the S&P moons I have missed out, but this kind of no risk return is not something I have come across in my short time investing. The other side of the coin is the S&P could continue to struggle. Someone explain to me why I shouldn't throw my money at this. 8.37% comes from 7.12% from the first 6 months and the calculated 9.62% for the second 6.

t3_u2gt5t

investing

Opened a Treasury Direct Account to purchase I bonds....

Is anyone else doing this? Is it as easy as it seams? Had no issues opening the account and linking my funding account. Do I just need to put in $10k and let it go for the year? And assume that I can put in $10k each year after? If an emergency arrises I can pull the purchase it seems? Just take a 3 month penalty if held less than 5 years? Is there anything I missing before I fund? ​ Thank you!

t3_u2fxcd

investing

Crypto IRA - are they a good choice for long term holding?

Looking to diversify a small percentage of the growth percentage of my retirement with crypto. Probably about 3% overall. Right now I’m about 90% stocks in my mid 40s. I have been looking into Crypto IRAs. Any thoughts on these? Are they legit and safe? Should I just buy and hold crypto another way? I don’t currently have any crypto, just 401k, IRA, and a brokerage account I keep for short term investments. The crypto investment would be a long term hold. Edit: it’s not a post about investing in crypto but using the crypto IRA as opposed to just buying through another means.

t3_u2cvto

investing

Which investing website has the best layout?

I'm looking to get into investing, mainly in ETFs and also setting up a Roth IRA. For a while I was trading individual stocks on TD Ameritrade but their website is absolutely terrible and frustrating to use. For the other investment firms (Fidelity, Vanguard, etc), which one has the most simple website for me to trade on? Thank you!

t3_u2b9c8

investing

Investing in TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities). Good idea?

I’ve been thinking about where to invest my money lately. I’ve been long stocks for 10+ years. I’ve been thinking about TIPS (treasury inflation protected securities). I don’t understand exactly how they work though. It seems like they are currently paying 7.5% interest annually. With inflation rising to 8.5%, I assume they will now be at 8.5%. Am I missing something? I would be more than happy with 8.5% in the market right now. Why not just get the guaranteed 8.5% from the TIPS. I understand that I’m technically breaking even due to inflation, but I think I’m ok with that for the short term. Help me understand if I’m missing something.

t3_u2780b

investing

Investing 10-20k into googl since December and will continue until split. Opinions?

I’ve been investing 10-20K per month in Google since December and plan to continue that trend until the split happens. I’ll then half that and start throwing more into spy and voo. My thinking is it’s a long term hold and with waymo not even really being talked about yet could be a major upside 4-5 years down the road if their partners start licensing their technology. Also alphabet has some other moonshot potential companies like wing that started delivering items in Houston via drone. Or am I just a big dummy? Currently holding 22 shares at 2750 cost basis. Edit- goal is to have 40 shares before split Edit- my income monthly is about 30-40K depending on commissions that month. Last month I hit 50K but that’s an unlucky trend 30K is the basis there.

t3_u25fu5

investing

LVMH Q1 results exceed expectations with +29% revenue increase YoY

From LVMH's IR website ([https://www.lvmh.com/news-documents/press-releases/good-start-to-the-year-for-lvmh-2022/](https://www.lvmh.com/news-documents/press-releases/good-start-to-the-year-for-lvmh-2022/)): >*LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s leading high-quality products group, recorded revenue of* ***18 billion euros*** *in the first quarter of 2022,* ***up 29% compared to the same period in 2021.*** ***Organic revenue growth was 23%.*** *LVMH had a good start to the year against a backdrop of continued disruption from the health crisis and marked by the dramatic events in Ukraine. All business groups achieved double-digit revenue growth, except for Wines & Spirits, which continued to see supply constraints. The United States and Europe also achieved double-digit revenue growth; Asia continued to grow over the quarter despite the impact of a tightening of health restrictions in China in March.The LVMH Group is closely monitoring developments in Ukraine and the region. Its first priority was to ensure the safety of its employees in Ukraine and to provide them with all the necessary financial and operational assistance.* Market's expectations noted at 17,03 bn EUR. Actual revenue was **18 billion euros ($19.59 billion).**([https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LVMH-MOET-HENNESSY-LOUIS-4669/news/LVMH-1Q-Revenue-Outstripped-Expectations-Despite-Global-Pressures-40035685/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LVMH-MOET-HENNESSY-LOUIS-4669/news/LVMH-1Q-Revenue-Outstripped-Expectations-Despite-Global-Pressures-40035685/)) According to IR especially their biggest category Fashion & Leather Goods, including their in-house brands Louis Vuitton & Dior postet strong numbers, as category revenue rose by 35% YoY (30% organically growth) to 9,123 bn EUR, which makes up about half of the total Q1 revenue. Weakest link was the Wines & Spirits compartment that missed double digit growth at 8% increase (2% organic) in revenue that at the same time is the smallest category the company reports in. Notwithstanding the economic pressures at the moment LVMH stands out with strong numbers. Waiting on the transcript and commentary of their Q&A session. Anybody? WKN: 853292 *Disclaimer: I am a shareholder of LVMH stock.* *Crosspost from* /r/stocks : [*https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/u24upf/lvmh\_q1\_results\_exceed\_expectations\_with\_29/*](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/u24upf/lvmh_q1_results_exceed_expectations_with_29/) Edit: typo, added info

t3_u254b1

investing

Shorting the Las Vegas Housing Market

For a variety of reasons that would take a long time to explain, I believe the fundamentals of the Las Vegas housing market are terrible and prices will peak in the next several months. I've looked at a lot of REITs, but all the residential ones I can find are pretty diversified and not concentrated in any one region. Does anyone know of any REITs focused primarily on the Las Vegas residential market? Or does anyone have other suggestions on how to short a regional housing market (as opposed to shorting the entire housing market)? Thanks!

t3_u21wbq

investing

SQQQ as Insurance to tech heavy portfolio?

I have two separate portfolio’s; one long term investing (30k), one short-term “trading” (2k). In my short-term im heavy tech, and trade basic options such as calls/puts both short and long term (limited long d/t small capital); does anyone here have any experience with SQQQ; if so, opinions on using SQQQ as insurance to a tech heavy/risk heavy portfolio such as the aforementioned? Percentage you might use to insure? For ex, if 1.5k is in tech stocks, would you use $250 in SQQQ (essentially equivalent to $750 (1/2 invested portfolio) as insurance to cover potential loss? Thoughts/comments? Im 24 y.o. so love taking on risk

t3_u20aq4

investing

I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

Since inflation might be peaking, this might be the highest variable rate for I bonds that we'll see for a while! And probably best to lock in the current 7.12% in April while you can, so that it can have both high rates in the year long minimum holding period. https://tipswatch.com/2022/04/12/i-bondss-new-variable-rate-will-rise-to-9-62-with-the-may-reset/

t3_u1yuea

investing

What happens to my broker-held shares in case of a merger?

I bought some Discovery stock last week, ahead of the Warner merger, and now that the merger is complete, Warner Bros Discovery is trading. However, my broker account still shows Discovery shares, and I can’t do anything with them. Will the automatically be replaced with Warner Bros. Discovery at some point, or does my broker have to do that manually?

t3_u1yd5b

investing

Help me convince my wife to properly invest $250k

Quick story: My daughter inherited a house (fully paid for and tenated) that (if sold today) would net about $250k (after closing costs and such). Problem is, this house was rented in the "good 'ol boy" way, where the house is making approximately $1k/mo, but then it has taxes and fixes that drain about $5k/yr. Net profit is \~$7k. I told my wife that this is insane, and that we could sell this house and use the money to help our daughter have a headstart in life. She could make so much more off of the funds from the investment, and she would also have no headaches with the renters or anything like that. What are some ways this could be invested to make more than what it currently returns. One suggestion I have had is QYLD with DRIP, but I would love to show her three or four other options to really drive the point home.

t3_u1y0xf

investing

CPI rises 1.2% in March, 8.5% over last 12 months

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm You can see a very specific breakdown per item here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm >The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. >Increases in the indexes for gasoline, shelter, and food were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The gasoline index rose 18.3 percent in March and accounted for over half of the all items monthly increase; other energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 1.0 percent and the food at home index rose 1.5 percent. >The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in March following a 0.5-percent increase the prior month. The shelter index was by far the biggest factor in the increase, with a broad set of other indexes also contributing, including those for airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance. In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 3.8 percent over the month. >The all items index continued to accelerate, rising 8.5 percent for the 12 months ending March, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.5 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 32.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 8.8 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1981.

t3_u1xyrn

investing

Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 12, 2022

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here! If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following: * How old are you? What country do you live in? * Are you employed/making income? How much? * What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?) * What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs? * What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?) * What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?) * Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses? * And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. Please consider consulting our FAQ first - https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/faq And our [side bar](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/about/sidebar) also has useful resources. Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered financial rep before making any financial decisions!

t3_u1ukwd

investing

Bayer reaches $80 mln PCB contamination settlement with Ohio. Is Monsanto buy?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bayer-reaches-80-mln-pcb-contamination-settlement-with-ohio-2022-03-24/ Is Bayer/Monsanto a buy? It's been climbing for one month straight and I guess that's because of GMOs given the situation at Ukraine.

t3_u1ua9c

investing

Qualcomms dividend strategy

All, Recently qualcomm announced that they would focus on increasing dividends over time instead of share buybacks. Can someone please explain how this affects things in the longer run and why dividends are better than buybacks, at least for qualcomm?

t3_u1tbp2

investing

IRA Recharacterization Questions

I funded my Roth IRA for the 2021 tax year in 2021 up to the max. However, my MAGI is over the income limit, so now I'm overfunded and will be charged 6% a year that I'm over. My Roth IRA funds are all in equity and I would rather not sell any to get below the limit. I've already funded my Roth IRA for 2022 so I can't just move funds from 2021 to 2022. My question is: if I do an IRA Recharacterization from Roth IRA to Traditional IRA selecting just those assets to get me below the income limit to avoid a penalty do I keep my stock holding/cost basis/acquisition date, etc in the new Traditional IRA account? Or are my stocks liquidated at whatever the market is at at the end of the day I make my IRA Recharacterization request and I now have to reinvest those back into the stocks I had previously in my Roth account? I hope this makes sense and if anyone has any suggestions on other options that I have available I'd appreciate it.

t3_u1q5mk

investing

Nine Years Ago, someone here asked what stock to hold for 20 years. Whats your pick for the next 9 years?

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1bbbgh/if_you_were_to_buy_a_stock_today_to_hold_for_20/ I saved this thread and looked back to see winners and losers. Some interesting picks here, GOOG, AAPL, along with some "safer" picks. Towards the bottom a few folks suggest TSLA, and at the very bottom, back in 2013, with -3 votes, someone suggests buying Bitcoin! So... which stocks are you holding for 9, 10 years?

t3_u1ocku

investing

Carbon capture technology?

What is your opinion of carbon capture technology and it’s future. I’ve heard a lot of hype surrounding capturing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in carbon wells etc. What companies are pioneering this industry, especially those listed on the TSX or NYSE. And how viable is it going forward ?

t3_u1nadv

investing

Advice on what to do with 70k FL lot

Hi all, I’m currently struggling with what to do with a plot of land worth around 70K in a small coastal town in FL (not waterfront or anything though). I’ve been considering various options and am honestly in an analysis paralysis. I’m 28 years old and rent in a different city in FL, have a well-paying job, and am overall doing well financially. My idea is to scale this investment and not use it for anything personal. On one hand, I can build a house on the lot (approx. 300k), save in agent fees and some closing costs, then either sell or rent it out when it’s completed a year later, depending on the market. On the other hand, I can sell it now, have that money on hand to shop around for a single-family home in a different FL city. I could either rinse and repeat or rent it out. The FL market is absolutely crazy right now though. I don’t see it slowing down but if something were to happen, I’d be waiting for the construction to finish and be stuck with an expensive mortgage. I like the idea of having the money to shop around for the right deal but maybe I’m approaching this wrong? Maybe the best thing would be to throw it into a fund or other investment type. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

t3_u1mgq5

investing

Kindred Group (KIND SDB) Analysis… Worth the Gamble?

*Disclaimer:* huge bricks of text coming up... **Stock Valuation:** European comps 888 Holdings, Entain Plc, and Flutter Entertainment trade at avg. multiples of 17.9x EBITDA and 3.5x sales. 888 Holdings is half the size of Kindred on a revenue basis, and a quarter of the size on an EBITDA basis. Entain is 2.5x larger than Kindred on a revenue basis, but less than 2x its size on an EBITDA basis. Flutter is 4.5x the size of Kindred on a revenue basis but only 2.5x its size on an EBITDA basis. These comparisons point to the significantly higher profitability of Kindred vis-à-vis its peers (discussed further below) US-domiciled comp DraftKings is slightly smaller than Kindred on a revenue basis and will lose approximately $615 million on an EBITDA basis this year. DraftKings trades at 17x revenue. **Profitability Considerations vs. Competitors:** • FanDuel (the US online sports betting segment of Flutter Entertainment) sales and marketing expense % of revenue is 42%. It will not be EBITDA profitable until 2023. DraftKings sales and marketing % of revenue is 65%. They will not be EBITDA profitable until 2024. DraftKings has publicly stated that it will take 2 to 3 years for each new customer acquisition to generate a positive profit contribution. • Kindred’s harnassing of “Big Data” to create efficiencies and “stickiness” in customer acquisition has led to a sales and marketing expense % of revenue of 21%, more than 50% below the ratio of its US competitors. This is the reason Kindred has EBITDA margins of over 30%. European comps have EBITDA margins in the mid 20s, and US comps, as shown above, continue to lose money. These economies of scale have to do with Kindred’s huge head start in entering the online sports and casino gambling market, and its lead in exploiting the data generated and steady infrastructure built up over these years. Kindred Group was founded in 1997 (same year as 888 Holdings), while Entain was founded in 2004, FanDuel was founded in 2009, and DraftKings in 2012. Kindred Group and the Europeans clearly saw this opportunity earlier. • Kindred generates 67% of its revenue in Western Europe, 31% in ROW (rest of world includes Eastern Europe, the Nordic Countries, Australia, and Asia), and 2% in the US. (Attached chart shows geographic exposure of peer group) Kindred, through its Unibet brand, has just won 2 additional state licenses in the US (Virginia and Arizona) and now is in a total of 6 states. Unibet was recently chosen as the online sportsbook partner of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Generally, each state awards 7 to 8 licenses, and there are still 30 states that have not yet legalized online sports betting and gambling. The break-down of US states presence is shown below: ​ ||Number of US States Operating in|States| |:-|:-|:-| |Kindred Group|6|VA, AZ, NJ, PA, IN, IA| |DraftKings|13|NJ, WV, IN, NJ, MI, CO, IL, IA, NC, VA, PA, NH, TN| |FanDuel|10| IL, CO, VA, PA, IN, WV, IA, NJ, TN, MI| |Entain (BetMGM) |10|MI, NV, NJ, IA, WV, IN, TN, CO, VA, PA| |888 Holdings |3|NJ, NV, DE | • The take-away here is that Kindred, which is the 3rd largest global online sports betting and casino gaming company, still has a miniscule share of the total market opportunity. It will generate approximately $1,250 of revenue this year in Europe; $610 million of revenue in ROW; and $40 million in the US. These represent market shares of 5.2% in Europe, 5.1% in ROW, and 0.3% in the US, which it just entered in 2021. Growth going forward will be enormous. **Short-Term Catalysts:** • As of 09/21/21 Kindred’s revenue had already surpassed the revenue of last year’s entire third quarter. In the third quarter of 2020 the economy had reopened post-covid, and there were a large number of live sporting events - so Q3 2021 was supposed to be up against very tough comps. The enormous increase in avg. revenue per day seen at the beginning of July was positively affected by the Euro Cup 2020 soccer tournament held through July 11. The key point is that the valuation and profit growth of Kindred are going to look even better than I have described. **Long-Term Catalysts – The Balance Sheet, Shareholder Return Yield, and M&A:** • Kindred has a 2.5% dividend yield (safe and growing) and a 50 million GBP share repurchase authorization. They have repurchased 16 million GBP shares year-to-date at an average cost of 146.00 SEK. They have an additional 34 million worth of shares to repurchase this year. • Assuming about 300 million GPB of free cash flow in 2021 (using their historical average free cash flow % of EBITDA) and Kindred’s goal of “returning 75% of free cash flow to shareholders every year,” this equates to a total return yield (dividend + buybacks) of 7.4%. Investors will love to own an appreciating asset with a yield that dwarfs the 10-year US treasury yield of 1.3% and even lower government bond yields in Europe. • Kindred’s fortress-like balance sheet and free cash flow retention makes M&A a continual opportunity for them. They have identified several candidates in the US and believe that most new entrants will fail because they are too late to the party and don’t have the financial resources to build out the infrastructure, brand awareness, regulatory expertise, and data-driven marketing advantage that Kindred possesses. • Kindred is itself a very attractive take-over target for brick-and-mortar casino operators facing declining revenue growth, regulatory crackdown in Macau, trends in “stay-at-home consumption,” and an extremely late start at getting into the online gambling sector. Potential buyers include Wynn Resorts, Caesars, Las Vegas Sands, and Penn National Gaming. A potential take-out of Kindred at a 15x forward EBITDA multiple (DraftKings just offered 19x forward EBITDA for Entain), would value KIND stock at 410 SEK. ​ **Major Shareholders:** Capital Group – 7.03% Avanza Pension – 3.35% Veralda Investment – 3.00% Unionen - 2.95% Swedish National Pension Fund – 2.48% TIN Funds - 1.98% BlackRock - 1.91% Kindred Group Plc - 1.82% Life Insurance Skandia - 1.71% Bassac GP - 1.71% Nordea Funds - 1.66% Janus Henderson Investors - 1.44% Goldman Sachs Asset Management- 1.39% Dimensional Fund Advisors - 1.32% Epoch - 1.31% Total Top 15 - 35.07% **Officers and Directors:** Anders Strom, Chairman and Founder - 3.00% Henrik Tjarnstrom, CEO - 0.80% Rest of Supervisory Board - 0.20% Rest of Executive Team - 0.30% O&D Total 4.30% ​ **Conclusion:** I believe that this is a fantastic opportunity. Kindred operates in one of the fastest growing industries globally (recession and inflation proof) and is the best run company in online sports betting and gambling. It will generate profit and cash flow margins far in excess of its peers, and will use this cash flow to further strengthen its competitive moat and to return money to shareholders in a way that will give us very high fixed returns on top of massive capital appreciation potential.

t3_u1lk8p

investing

Should I convert my stock shares to DRS (Direct Registration System)?

I'm kinda scared of a market collapse soon and I'm wondering what will happen to my stock shares if my broker were to collapse. Let's say for example Schwabb was to collapse and fail, my street shares would be toast, right? But if I have DRS shares, I'd still be safe, right?

t3_u1if68

investing

Realistically, where do you see the stock market in the next 10 years?

Hi there, We can all feel the negative atmosphere in the stock market, since the beginning of the year, we've been hearing nothing but bad news. Now, let's try to look beyond the near term challenges. What are your realistic expectations for the stock market in the next 10 years? Will it be positive return? Negative return? Neutral? Which sectors will outperform and which will underperform? My opinion: I can't think of a scenario where tech will NOT outperform the market. Even if interest rates hit 10% and a world war breaks out, I think tech will still be standing tall and strong. (Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor nor a professional at all.)

t3_u1hvc4

investing

Question on how bonds work

I have been trying to tell my parents that letting their money sit in a savings account is one of the worst things they could be doing. For my own personal portfolio, I have nearly all of money in full market etfs like VOO. Of course my parents are much closer to retirement age, and extremely risk-averse. I told them that government bonds would be a good option since they are considered risk-free and wouldn't lose value in a downturn like SPY or VOO. I am also looking at actual government bonds and not a bond etf that could lose value. My question is, how does someone even go about purchasing bonds, and is there a recommended length that people normally purchase (1-year, 2-year, 5 year)? I only really know about stocks and etfs, so the bond market is entirely new to me.

t3_u1gfir

investing

Curiousity never killed the cat

Have some of the members in this community considered investing on the JSE (South African stocks)? If so, which stocks peaked your interest? And what do you base your analysis on? I'm looking to invest in some stocks that will give me a "safe" return over a 1 year period as I'm saving up to buy property. I don't want to put it in the bank as I believe stocks/ETFs will render a larger return on investment. I was thinking to buy some higher risk stocks like Steinhoff and Renergen and the majority to be safe holdings like a S&P500 tracking ETF and maybe Nasdaq? Your intellect is much appreciated

t3_u1gcx3

investing

AT&T-WBD Stock Spinoff Question

For every one share of AT&T, investors were supposed to get .24 shares of WBD. I have 8 shares of AT&T in a portfolio, and only got 1 share of WBD. I get why they wouldn’t distribute fractional shares, but will I get compensated for this? That’s around $20 in value lost. Edit: You will receive cash in lieu of fractional shares. Thank you, everyone.

t3_u1fv8f

investing

Calls and Puts. I understand what happens when one exercises a call option

But what happens when one exercises a put option? I started trading options in very very small amounts just to see how they work. I have not exercised an actual call option but I know that you get the 100 shares for the price set in the option. Puts are a totally different animal for me. It took me much longer to understand just how they work and now I get it but I still don’t know what happens if I chose to exercise one. I know the general rule is to sell the options but I am just curious and fairly new to the whole options game.

t3_u1e1op

investing

Investing in REITs and your thoughts

Only learning about REITs, and just wanted some ideas from you level headed bunch... Do many of you invest in REITs? On the whole what are the thoughts on these... A good way to diversify and have a little exposure to real estate? As good as owning the real estate? Any good REITs I can look into? Bonus if it's UK Thanks

t3_u1dqrc

investing

I'm looking for the name of the extremely successful financial firm that averaged mid/high double-digit yearly returns for several years then became 100% private?

I watched a fascinating hour-long documentary on youtube 1-2 years ago on a channel similar to "Cold Fusion" that does documentaries on financial companies and I'm trying to find the documentary I watched 1-2 years ago so I can view it again. Here are details I remember: * This company started in the 1980's when 2 guys (possibly 1 was a mathematician?) realized that their price prediction models ***based on technical analysis*** could accurately predict future price movements * The company was modestly successful at the beginning but they reinvested their profits into hiring geniuses at math & computer science who all signed NDA's and worked for the financial company to make the models even better which led to huge profits * The yearly rates of return were consistently in the 50% - 200% range for at least a dozen years * The company was so successful that they kicked out all their investors and fired all their clients and became only available for the investing benefit of its own employees/owners The financial firm may have possibly been Blackstone Inc. or BlackRock Inc. but the wikipedia pages don't seem to be 100% in agreement with the things about the company as told by the youtube video. **Can anyone tell me the name of the financial firm so I have a better chance of finding the documentary I watched?** ___ **TL;DR:** I'm looking for the name of the extremely successful financial firm that averaged mid/high double-digit yearly returns for several years then became 100% private? ___ **Edit: u/Savik519 nailed it! It's "Renaissance Technologies" now I just need to find the video!** 😁

t3_u1db9f

investing

ATT options post spinoff include WBD stock?

I read a lot about the ATT, Warner spin off, and now that it has happened, I am still confused about the call options. I bought 100 shares of the NEW ATT post spin off. I wanted to sell a covered call, but all the prices are of T1 options, so a 20$ covered call is like 400$ premium. But from what I read , this includes a 24% of WB. So does that mean if I sell covered calls of the NEW post spinoff Att stock, and I get assigned, the buyer will also get the value of 24% of WB stock from me even though I dont own that stock? It will be like partial naked selling of calls?? Am I understanding this right??

t3_u1d9ue

investing

Can we actually use this way of thinking while analyzing companies? - From one up on wall street

[https://imgur.com/a/NOlsUIH](https://imgur.com/a/NOlsUIH) It doesn't really make sense to find out net cash per share, and if it was trading exactly at that value, thinking ur getting the equity for free ain't correct right.. Or am I missing something? There is no guarantee that the stock would trade at or higher than the net cash per share if it was found out to be below net cash per share right? Why did peter lynch claim this

t3_u1cumz

investing

State Sponsored 529 vs. Third party (Vanguard)

Hello, just had a newborn son and we are setting up a 529 early for education. We'll be contributing smaller monthly payments but honestly the majority of the funding will come from grandparents who want to keep it pretty well funded (we are very fortunate that they are so generous). ​ Anyways I live in Florida and was reading all about the 529 here (which we prefer over prepaid tuition), and as I was about to sign up I saw that Vanguard, and other brokerages, also offer their own 529s. ​ Does anyone have experience with a private one over the state sponsored one? Is there a reason to go with one over the other? It looks to me like Vanguard has way more investment options so I was leaning that way but if there's a reason to stay with Florida I will. ​ Thanks in advance

t3_u1crzx

investing

Doing a virtual stock market game in my highschool economics class. Can I get some help?

I think the best choice would be to choose stocks that fluctuate a lot so I can make money fast. No IPOs are allowed in the game. We start with $100k and I think the game lasts for a month give or take. Whoever wins gets their name printed on a big trophy so itd be pretty cool to win. Any helpful suggestions on what to do to win would be much appreciated. Thanks Edit: we’re not allowed to short stocks

t3_u1c64b

investing

Is 50/50 Tesla Apple a bad investment?

I already have $250 per paycheck in a Roth IRA with a safer investment but i want to put around $100 a month into something, I was looking at the warren Buffett 90/10 option but I was on a portfolio visualized and 50% apple 50% Tesla had around a 50/60% return, compared to the 90/10 15% return. But is this a bad investment? It feels like it is, but I just don’t know. The high return looks good but I don’t want to lose money

t3_u1bo92

investing

UK Investors - How to get exposure to Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF

Hi investorers, Anyone here from the UK managed to invest in ARKK? I feel like it's a good time to start dollar cost averaging the fund but I can't buy in the UK because "ARK have not provided key information documents (KIDs)". Anyone got any workarounds? Thanks!

t3_u19dmr