Patent Publication Number: US-10319242-B2

Title: Maneuver prediction for surrounding traffic

Description:
FIELD 
     This disclosure relates to systems and methods for vehicle navigation. In particular, the present disclosure is concerned with navigating a vehicle based on predicted trajectories of other vehicles. 
     BACKGROUND 
     Vehicles operating in traffic may have different capabilities and, accordingly, operate at different speeds and/or travel in different corridors. For example, some aircraft within an airspace may operate at lower speeds and altitudes than others. As a result, an aircraft capable of operating efficiently at high speeds may be forced to fly at a suboptimal speed to accommodate slower traffic occupying the same flight corridor. The planned arrival time of the aircraft at its destination may, therefore, be delayed and the aircraft may burn more fuel than it would have otherwise. In another situation, an air traffic controller may require the aircraft to increase its altitude to avoid any interference with the slower aircraft. However, such unplanned maneuvers may burn more fuel than a preplanned change in trajectory performed to occupy a more efficient cruising altitude or to maneuver at a more efficient rate. 
     In situations such as those above, an operator of the vehicle can attempt to make a maneuver that mitigates the interference of the slower traffic. However, existing navigations systems may not offer sufficient information of other traffic for the operator to plan and implement such a maneuver. For example, when deciding whether to change trajectory, an aircraft pilot may only have access to limited traffic information from radio communication or traffic collision avoidance system (“TCAS”) advisories. By relying on such limited traffic information, the pilot may make a maneuver that is more costly (i.e., less efficient) than its alternatives. Moreover, because the pilot must take the effort to obtain and analyze the available traffic information, the pilot may be unable to make a timely request for a change in trajectory from an air traffic controller. 
     SUMMARY 
     This disclosure relates to navigating a vehicle based on predicted trajectories of other vehicles. Systems, methods, and computer-program products consistent with the disclosure perform operations including receiving location information of other vehicles. The operations also include comparing the location information of the other vehicles with an intended trajectory information of the vehicle. The operations further include determining that interference exists based on the comparing. Additionally, the operations include determining a modification to the intended trajectory information of the vehicle that resolves the interference with one of the other vehicles. Moreover, the operations include presenting the modification to the intended trajectory information of the vehicle to an operator of the vehicle. Further, the operations include modifying the intended trajectory using the modification. 
     The features, functions, and advantages that have been discussed can be achieved independently in various embodiments or may be combined in yet other embodiments further details of which can be seen with reference to the following description and drawings. 
    
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
       The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate the present teachings and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the disclosure. 
         FIG. 1  illustrates an example of an environment for implementing systems and processes in accordance an embodiment of the present disclosure. 
         FIG. 2  illustrates an example of a vehicle in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure. 
         FIG. 3  illustrates a block diagram of a vehicle processing system in accordance with an embodiment of the disclosure. 
         FIG. 4  illustrates a process flow diagram including operations performed in accordance an embodiment of the present disclosure. 
         FIG. 5  illustrates an example of a computer-user interface in accordance an embodiment of the present disclosure. 
     
    
    
     It should be noted that some details of the figures have been simplified and are drawn to facilitate understanding of the present teachings, rather than to maintain strict structural accuracy, detail, and scale. 
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
     This disclosure relates to systems and methods for vehicle navigation. In particular, the present disclosure is directed to navigating a vehicle based on predicted trajectories (e.g., position, direction or travel, and/or acceleration) of other vehicles. Methods and systems in accordance with aspects of the present disclosure can predetermine a modification to a trajectory (e.g., a change in a planned speed, direction, and/or altitude) of the vehicle that eliminates interference with a predicted trajectory of another vehicle. As used herein, interference refers to a condition in which the predicted path of at least one vehicle traveling potentially affects (e.g., slows or modifies) the planned trajectory of another vehicle. However, in the context of this application, interference does not include determining imminent physical collisions between vehicles. Further, the methods and systems can present the modification to an operator of the vehicle along with information that assists the operator in choosing whether to accept such modification. In implementations, the modification includes a maneuver (e.g., a, turn, a decent, or a climb) that minimizes a possibility that transit of the vehicle through a particular path (e.g., a predefined travel corridor) followed by the vehicle will be delayed and/or blocked by the other vehicle (e.g., a slower aircraft), for example, the methods and systems can predict whether a flight plan of an aircraft interferes with the other aircraft and determine a change of the flight plan (e.g., an early step climb) that avoids the interference. Implementations, the prediction can be based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (“ADS-B”) information of surrounding air traffic. Additionally, the prediction can be based on historical information (e.g., past performance of the other aircraft&#39;s routine flights). Further, the prediction can be based on environmental information obtained from sensors, such as wind, temperature, and air density. Further, in implementations, the modification is only proposed if it provides a sufficient benefit. For example, where the modification is for an aircraft to perform a step climb earlier than called for in the flight plan, the modification may only be presented to a pilot if the reduction in time, cost, and/or risk provide a sufficient cost benefit (e.g., greater than a threshold amount of time and/or fuel savings). 
       FIG. 1  is an example of an environment  2  for implementing methods and systems in accordance with aspects of the disclosure. The environment  2  includes airspace  10 , an air traffic management facility  12 , and an airport  14 . The airspace  10  can include a region through which a number of aircraft  16  pass under control of the air traffic management facility  12 . For example, the air traffic management facility  12  can be located at the airport  14  and be responsible for directing some or all of the aircraft  16  to maintain separation and/or flight corridors as they arrive and depart the airport  14 , as well as when passing through the airspace  10 . The air traffic management facility  12  includes a communication system  18  that allows two-way communication with the aircraft  16 . Each of the aircraft  16  can be equipped with communication equipment (not shown in  FIG. 1 ), such as a radio and/or a data link (e.g., ADS-B). 
     While environment  2  is illustrated using air travel, it is understood that implementations consistent with the present disclosure can be applied to terrestrial vehicles. For example, the vehicles can be fully-autonomous or semi-autonomous automobiles, trucks, and the like controlled by a central or distributed management system to maintain separation and travel lanes while traveling on a road. 
       FIG. 2  illustrates an example of a vehicle  20  in accordance with aspects of the disclosure. In implementations, the vehicle  20  can be an aircraft, which may be the same or similar to those previously described (e.g., aircraft  16 ). In accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, the vehicle  20  includes a communication system  21  and a vehicle processing system  22 . The communication system  21  can be one or more devices providing a radio and/or a data link for exchanging information between the vehicle  20  and other systems (e.g. aircraft  16  and/or air traffic management facility  12 . In accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, the communication system  21  can send and/or receive traffic information and intended trajectory information. The traffic information can describe the current states of other vehicles. In implementations, the traffic information can include, for each vehicle, an identifier, a position, a velocity, an acceleration, a direction, one or more weather conditions, a fuel level, a weight and/or a center of gravity. The communication system  21  can receive such data at a real-time or a near real-time rate. 
     The intended trajectory information can include a preplanned path of a vehicle traveling from an origin location (e.g., airport  14 ) to a destination (e.g., a different airport similar to airport  14 ) during a particular trip. In implementations, the intended trajectory information can specify the origin location, the destination, a path, and rates of travel between the origin and the destination (e.g., latitudes, longitudes altitudes, and/or velocities) each portion of the path. For example, the intended trajectory information can be a flight plan for an aircraft determined by, for example, a pilot, a flight manager, and/or a flight planning software application. Additionally, the intended trajectory information can include physical information of the aircraft such as gross weight, fuel level, and center of gravity. 
     The vehicle processing system  22  can be one or more devices for monitoring and controlling the vehicle  20 . In implementations, the vehicle processing system  22  can receive, process, store, distribute, and/or display information regarding the state of the vehicle  20  between a various systems and sensors of the vehicle  20 . For example, the vehicle processing system  22  can be a flight management system that receives information from sensors monitoring the state of vehicle&#39;s drivetrain, and controls, processes such information, and drives displays for an operator of the vehicle  20 . In accordance with aspects of the present of disclosure, the vehicle processing system  22  can include a navigation module  24 , a path module  25 , and an interference module  26 . In some implementations, the navigation module  24 , the path module  25 , and/or the interference module  26  are components of the vehicle processing system  22 . In other implementations, the navigation module  24 , the path module  25 , and/or the interference module  26  are physically separate units having respective computer processors communicatively coupled to the vehicle processing system  22  and to one another (e.g., avionics units communicating via a military standard-1553 (MIL-STD-1553) or an Aeronautical Radio, Incorporated (ARINC) data network). 
     The navigation module  24  can be hardware, software, or a combination thereof that determines the position and speed of the vehicle  20 . The path module  25  can be hardware, software, or a combination thereof communicatively linked with the navigation module  24  and the interference module  26 , that guides the vehicle along an intended trajectory, which can include the same information as previously described. 
     The interference module  26  can be hardware, software, or a combination thereof communicatively linked with the navigation module  24  and the path module  25  that predicts potential interferences with other vehicles, determines probabilities of such interferences, and determines recommendations for avoiding such interferences. In accordance with aspects of the present disclosure, the interference module  26  compares intended trajectory information of the vehicle  20  obtained from, e.g., the path module  25  with traffic data and intended trajectory information of other vehicles (e.g., aircraft  16 ) received via the communication system  21 . Additionally, based on the comparison, the path module  25  can determine a modification of the intended trajectory information of the vehicle  20  to avoid interference with another vehicle. The modification of the intended trajectory information of the vehicle  20  can be provided to the path module  25  for presentation to the operator of the vehicle  20 , along with details of the prediction, such as a probability of the predicted interference and a time frame for the predicted interference. For example, where vehicle  20  is an aircraft, the interference module  26  can predict trajectories of other aircraft based on location and flight plans obtained via an ADS-B data link, and compare the predicted trajectories to a planned flight path of the vehicle  20 . Based on such comparison, the interference module  26  can recommend that the vehicle perform, e.g., a preplanned step climb to a particular flight level early to avoid interference from the other aircraft that is also predicted to use the same flight level. By doing so, the aircraft can be occupy that flight level before the other aircraft. For example, the pilot of the aircraft can request the flight level from air traffic control (air traffic management facility  12 ) and, if approved, control the aircraft to the corresponding altitude. Thus, the disclosed system supports the pilot by making recommendations of when to request a certain flight level. In implementations, the recommendations can be based on a balance of costs. For example, requesting a certain flight level earlier than expected can result in some cost penalty because the aircraft may too heavy for the particular level. However, such cost penalty might outweigh the costs of staying on the lower level (e.g. being too light or being obstructed by a slower aircraft). Additionally, the pilot can control the aircraft to climb at a gradual rate that is more efficient (in terms of fuel, time and/or risk) than would be required for an unplanned climb necessitated by the interference if such interference had not been predicted. 
       FIG. 3  illustrates a block diagram of a system  30  in accordance with aspects of the disclosure. The system  30  includes a communication system  21 , a vehicle processing system  22 , a navigation module  24 , a path module  25 , and an interference module  26 , all of which can be the same or similar to those described previously. In accordance with aspects of the disclosure, the system  30  includes hardware and software that perform processes and functions described herein. In particular, the vehicle processing system  22  includes a computing device  330 , an input/output (I/O) device  333 , and a storage system  335 . The I/O device  333  can include any device that enables an individual (e.g., a pilot) to interact with the computing device  330  (e.g., a user interface) and/or any device that enables the computing device  330  present information to the individual. For example, I/O device  333  can be a display and keyboard of a Control Display Unit (“CDU”) and/or an Engine Instrument Crew Alerting System (“EICAS”). 
     The storage system  335  can comprise a computer-readable, non-volatile hardware storage device that stores information and computer program instructions. For example, the storage system  335  can be one or more flash drives and/or hard disk drives. Additionally, in accordance with aspects of the disclosure, the storage system  335  includes historical information  337  and intended trajectory information  338 . The historical information  337  can be a collection of data about prior trips and/or past trajectories of vehicles (e.g., aircraft  16 ). In implementations, the historical information  337  can incorporate information obtained from previous flight plans and/or flight profiles of the other aircraft. For example, the historical information  337  can include information for a routine flight of an airline from a particular origin to a particular destination. The information can include the type of aircraft, flight plans of the aircraft, and the trajectory of the aircraft. Further, the historical information  337  can indicate maneuvers typically taken by the aircraft for the flight. For example, the historical data  337  can indicate locations and times during a routing flight at which an aircraft changes altitude (e.g., timing and position of descending and performing an approach). Further, the historical information  337  can indicate the state of the vehicle and its surroundings during the flight. For example, it can include aircraft type, configuration, weight, fuel load, and weather information. Intended trajectory information  338  can be the same or similar to that previously described. For example, the intended trajectory information  338  can includes information describing a particular trip taken by a vehicle including the system  30 . In implementations, the intended trajectory information  338  is a flight plan of an aircraft. 
     In embodiments, the computing device  330  includes one or more processors  339 , one or more memory devices  341  (e.g., RAM and ROM), one or more I/O interfaces  343 , and one or more network interfaces  344 . The memory device  341  can include a local memory (e.g., a random access memory and a cache memory) employed during execution of program instructions. Additionally, the computing device  330  includes at least one communication channel  346  (e.g., a data bus) by which it communicates with the I/O device  333 , the storage system  335 , the navigation module  24 , the path module  25 , and the interference module  26 . The processor  339  executes computer program instructions (e.g., an operating system), which can be stored in the memory device  341  and/or storage system  335 . Moreover, in accordance with aspects of the disclosure, the processor  339  can execute computer program instructions of the storage system  335 , the navigation module  24 , and the path module  25  to perform processes and functions described herein. 
     The vehicle processing system  22  can comprise any general purpose or special purpose computing article of manufacture capable of executing computer program instructions installed thereon (e.g., a personal computer, server, etc.). In implementations, the vehicle processing system  22  incorporates the functionality of existing flight management systems. However, it is understood that the vehicle processing system  22  is only representative of various possible equivalent-computing devices that can perform the processes described herein. To this extent, in embodiments, the functionality provided by the computing device  330  can be any combination of general and/or specific purpose hardware and/or computer program instructions. For example, the computing device  330  can be an off-the-shelf personal computer or a ruggedized flight mission computer. In each embodiment, the program instructions and hardware can be created using standard programming and engineering techniques, respectively. 
     The flowchart in  FIG. 4  illustrates functionality and operation of possible implementations of systems, devices, methods, and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present disclosure. Each block in the flow diagram of  FIG. 4  can represent a module, segment, or portion of program instructions, which includes one or more computer executable instructions for implementing the illustrated functions and operations. In some alternative implementations, the functions and/or operations illustrated in a particular block of the flow diagram can occur out of the order shown in  FIG. 4 . For example, two blocks shown in succession can be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks can sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the flow diagram and combinations of blocks in the block can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems that perform the specified functions or acts, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions. 
       FIG. 4  illustrates a flow diagram of an exemplary process  400  for predicting interference between a first vehicle and one or more other vehicles. Further, the process  400  can provide an operator with a choice of one or more maneuvers that mitigate the interference. In implementations the process  400  predicts aviation traffic along a trajectory of an aircraft and determines a change to an existing flight plan (e.g., an early climb) that can avoid the interfering traffic in a manner that saves fuel and/or time by, for example, by modifying the time and/or location of a preplanned maneuver (e.g., an early climb to a particular flight level). 
     At  405 , the process  400  (executed, e.g., by vehicle processing system  22 ) obtains location information one or more other vehicles. The location information can be obtained by a communication system (e.g., communication system  21 ) via radio or data link transmissions. The location information can include traffic information and trip information, which can be the same or similar to those previously described. In some implementations, the information relates to a multitude of vehicles, such that the first vehicle can predict potential interferences with planned trajectories of any of the other vehicles. 
     At  411 , the process  400  (using, e.g., interference module  26 ) determines one or more relevant vehicles from among the other vehicles based on the location information obtained at  405 . In implementations, the determination of the relevant vehicles includes comparing the traffic information and/or the trip information of the one or more other vehicles to the trajectory (e.g., intended trajectory information  338 ) of the first vehicle and determining a probability that one of the other vehicles will interfere (e.g., obstruct in time and location). For example, the process  400  can determine that a particular one of the other vehicles is not relevant if there is no chance (0.0%) that its trajectory can intersect that of the first vehicle based on that particular vehicle&#39;s location, speed, and trajectory. In implementations, the relevance of another vehicle can also be determined using by historical data (e.g., historical data  337 ), such as past ADS-B data and past trip data (e.g., flight plans and schedules of other aircraft and/or airlines). For example, the vehicles can be aircraft and the determination of the relevant vehicle may exclude any aircraft that do not climb to flight levels, aircraft staying only on the same route for a short time, or aircraft only crossing the planned route at a relevant altitude. 
     At  415 , the process  400  determines current and predicted positions of the relevant vehicles determined at  411 . In implementations, the location information obtained at  405  for the relevant trips determined at  411  is analyzed to predict the trajectories and/or speed profiles of the other vehicles. For example, based on the information in the ADS-B messages and/or historical ADS-B recordings of a relevant aircraft (e.g., historical information  337 ), the process  400  (using, e.g., interference module  26 ) can predict of profile the position, altitude, and speed of the aircraft. 
     At  419 , the process  400  compares current and predicted locations of the relevant vehicles determined at  415  with intended trajectory information of the first vehicle (e.g., intended trajectory information  338 ). At  423 , the process  400  determines whether any interference exists based on the comparison made at  419 . Additionally, in embodiments, the process determines with a likelihood of the interference (e.g., a percentage chance) and a time frame during which the interference may exist (e.g., 20-30 minutes, the next 15 minutes). If no interference exits, the process  400  iteratively restarts. However, if an interference is determined at  423  (“Yes”), then at  427 , the process  400  determines one or more modifications to the intended trajectory (e.g., a maneuver) that resolves the interference with the at least one or more other vehicles. For example, an aircraft can determine that an early step climb to a planned flight level will avoid the interference, and determine an optimal time and rate for the step climb based on the current state of the aircraft, sensor data (e.g., current wind, temperature, air density), and the surrounding traffic. 
     At  431 , the process  400  presents the modification determined at  427  to the operator of the first vehicle using a computer-user interface (e.g., I/O device  333 ). For example, the solutions can presented to a pilot of the vehicle on a CDU and/or an EICAS. At  435 , the process  400  determines whether one of the solutions presented at  427  was accepted. If not (“No”), the process  400  iteratively restarts. However, if one of the solutions presented at  427  is accepted (“Yes”), then at  439  the process  400  modifies the intended trajectory of the first vehicle based on the solution. At  443 , the process  400  executes the modification of the intended trajectory of the first vehicle. 
       FIG. 5  illustrates an example of a computer-user interface  500  presenting a predicted interference and a solution to the interference in accordance with aspects of the present disclosure (e.g.,  431 ). In implementations, the computer-user interface  500  can be presented by a navigation system (e.g., vehicle processing system  22 ) using a display device (e.g. I/O device  333 ). For example, the display device can be a CDU and/or EICAS presenting an aircraft on a map from a birds-eye-view along with a message indicating a solution (e.g.,  427 ) to avoid a particular aircraft, along with a likelihood of the interference and a time frame during the solution should be executed (e.g.,  FIG. 4, 443 ). The pilot of the aircraft can accept the proposed change using the CDU/EICAS, which can automatically request a change in flight plan with air traffic control (e.g., air traffic management facility  12 ) and update the flight profile for the aircraft to incorporate the solution. 
     The present disclosure is not to be limited in terms of the particular embodiments described in this application, which are intended as illustrations of various aspects. Many modifications and variations can be made without departing from its spirit and scope, as will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Functionally equivalent methods and apparatuses within the scope of the disclosure, in addition to those enumerated herein, will be apparent to those skilled in the art from the foregoing descriptions. Such modifications and variations are intended to fall within the scope of the appended claims. The present disclosure is to be limited only by the terms of the appended claims, along with the full scope of equivalents to which such claims are entitled. It is also to be understood that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only, and is not intended to be limiting. 
     With respect to the use of substantially any plural and/or singular terms herein, those having skill in the art can translate from the plural to the singular and/or from the singular to the plural as is appropriate to the context and/or application. The various singular/plural permutations may be expressly set forth herein for sake of clarity. 
     It will be understood by those within the art that, in general, terms used herein, and especially in the appended claims (e.g., bodies of the appended claims) are generally intended as “open” terms (e.g., the term “including” should be interpreted as “including but not limited to,” the term “having” should be interpreted as “having at least,” the term “includes” should be interpreted as “includes but is not limited to,” etc.). It will be further understood by those within the art that if a specific number of an introduced claim recitation is intended, such an intent will be explicitly recited in the claim, and in the absence of such recitation no such intent is present. For example, as an aid to understanding, the following appended claims may contain usage of the introductory phrases “at least one” and “one or more” to introduce claim recitations. However, the use of such phrases should not be construed to imply that the introduction of a claim recitation by the indefinite articles “a” or “an” limits any particular claim containing such introduced claim recitation to embodiments containing only one such recitation, even when the same claim includes the introductory phrases “one or more” or “at least one” and indefinite articles such as “a” or “an” (e.g., “a” and/or “an” should be interpreted to mean “at least one” or “one or more”); the same holds true for the use of definite articles used to introduce claim recitations. In addition, even if a specific number of an introduced claim recitation is explicitly recited, those skilled in the art will recognize that such recitation should be interpreted to mean at least the recited number (e.g., the bare recitation of “two recitations,” without other modifiers, means at least two recitations, or two or more recitations). Furthermore, in those instances where a convention analogous to “at least one of A, B, and C, etc.” is used, in general such a construction is intended in the sense one having skill in the art would understand the convention (e.g., “a system having at least one of A, B, and C” would include but not be limited to systems that have A alone, B alone, C alone, A and B together, A and C together, B and C together, and/or A, B, and C together, etc.). In those instances where a convention analogous to “at least one of A, B, or C, etc.” is used, in general such a construction is intended in the sense one having skill in the art would understand the convention (e.g., “a system having at least one of A, B, or C” would include but not be limited to systems that have A alone, B alone, C alone, A and B together, A and C together, B and C together, and/or A, B, and C together, etc.). It will be further understood by those within the art that virtually any disjunctive word and/or phrase presenting two or more alternative terms, whether in the description, claims, or drawings, should be understood to contemplate the possibilities of including one of the terms, either of the terms, or both terms. For example, the phrase “A or B” will be understood to include the possibilities of “A” or “B” or “A and B.” In addition, where features or aspects of the disclosure are described in terms of Markush groups, those skilled in the art will recognize that the disclosure is also thereby described in terms of any individual member or subgroup of members of the Markush group. 
     While various aspects and embodiments have been disclosed herein, other aspects and embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art. The various aspects and embodiments disclosed herein are for purposes of illustration and are not intended to be limiting, with the true scope and spirit being indicated by the following claims.