Patent Publication Number: US-10779023-B2

Title: Content prediction for cloud-based delivery

Description:
TECHNICAL FIELD 
     The present invention relates generally to a method, system, and computer program product for delivery of content. More particularly, the present invention relates to a method, system, and computer program product for content prediction for cloud-based delivery. 
     BACKGROUND 
     A content delivery network or content distribution network (CDN) is a geographically distributed network of proxy servers and their data centers. The goal of a CDN is to distribute service spatially relative to end-users to provide high availability and high performance. Content owners typically pay CDN operators to deliver their content to end users. CDNs serve a large portion of the Internet content today, including web objects (e.g., text, graphics and scripts), downloadable objects (e.g., media files, software, documents), applications (e.g., e-commerce, portals), live streaming media, on-demand streaming media, and social networks and other networking platforms. Media platforms and other networking platforms allow users to post content to the networking platform, interact with other users, and share content. 
     SUMMARY 
     The illustrative embodiments provide a method, system, and computer program product. An embodiment of a computer-implemented method includes receiving content interaction data associated with content. The embodiment further includes analyzing the content interaction data to determine a sentiment associated with the content. In the embodiment, the content interaction data is associated with a first geographical location. The embodiment further includes predicting trending of the content to a predetermined level in at least one other geographical location based upon the sentiment. The embodiment further includes determining a recommendation for delivery of the content in a second geographical location of the at least one other geographical location. 
     Another embodiment further includes determining a cost of delivery of the content in each of the at least one other geographical locations, wherein the recommendation is based upon the determined cost of delivery. In another embodiment, the cost of delivery is based upon a bandwidth cost in each of at least one other geographical locations. 
     Another embodiment further includes configuring a content delivery network to provide the content based upon the recommendation. 
     In another embodiment, predicting trending of the of the content further includes predicting a probability of the content trending to the predetermined level in the at least one other geographical location, and determining that the probability exceeds a threshold value. 
     In another embodiment, the sentiment is determined using cognitive processing. In another embodiment, the cognitive processing includes natural language processing. In another embodiment, trending of the content is predicted using cognitive processing. In another embodiment, trending of the content is predicted using a truth maintenance system model. In another embodiment, trending of the content is further predicted using a Dempster-Schafer model. 
     In another embodiment, the recommendation includes a recommended quality of delivery of the content. 
     An embodiment includes a computer usable program product. The computer usable program product includes one or more computer-readable storage devices, and program instructions stored on at least one of the one or more storage devices. 
     An embodiment includes a computer system. The computer system includes one or more processors, one or more computer-readable memories, and one or more computer-readable storage devices, and program instructions stored on at least one of the one or more storage devices for execution by at least one of the one or more processors via at least one of the one or more memories. 
    
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
       Certain novel features believed characteristic of the invention are set forth in the appended claims. The invention itself, however, as well as a preferred mode of use, further objectives and advantages thereof, will best be understood by reference to the following detailed description of the illustrative embodiments when read in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein: 
         FIG. 1  depicts a block diagram of a network of data processing systems in which illustrative embodiments may be implemented; 
         FIG. 2  depicts a block diagram of a data processing system in which illustrative embodiments may be implemented; 
         FIG. 3  depicts a block diagram of an example configuration for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment; 
         FIG. 4  depicts an example sequence for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment; and 
         FIG. 5  depicts a flowchart of an example process for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment. 
     
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
     The illustrative embodiments described herein are directed to trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery. Embodiments recognize that content owners often want to serve up their content with global distribution, but they cannot control the cost of delivering the content effectively when the content quickly “goes viral” in nature. In one or more embodiments, “going viral” refers to media content, such as video or images, trending and/or spreading quickly and widely among users on the Internet through networking sites or other electronic communication. Embodiments further recognize that a need exists for a way for a content owner to maximize cloud based content delivery for viral content, while still effectively managing the cost of the content delivery with a service provider. 
     One or more embodiments are directed to predicting media content, such as social media content, to trend and/or spread quickly, or go viral, based on collaboration data associated with a particular geographical location and trending of content interactions. One or more embodiments are further directed to optimizing a cost of delivery for the content owner for the content delivery to minimize delivery cost for viral streaming content from a cloud-based delivery system such as a CDN. In one or more embodiments, a media platform driven crowd-based prediction model is used to optimize cost delivery from a global cloud-based offering. In one or more embodiments, media based content is dynamically collected, and an analysis is conducted to yield a structured approach for viral based prediction for certain geographical locations based on other specific geographic locations trending with the same or similar content. 
     In one or more embodiments, a system receives content, e.g., social media content, and analyzes the content to determine a sentiment of the content using cognitive processing to predict if the content is expected to go viral and an identification of one or more geographical locations for which the content is expected to go viral. In one or more embodiments, sentiment is an indication of an attitude, view, or opinion toward the content from one or more users of a media platform, such as a social media platform. In one or more embodiments, the sentiment is indicative of a popularity of the content among the one or more users. In a particular embodiment, the system analyzes the content using natural language processing. In one or more embodiments, the system predicts a probability of the content going viral based upon the sentiment and one or more geographical locations for which the content is expected to go viral. In one or more embodiments, if the probability is greater than a predetermined threshold, the system determines a cost optimization of content delivery for the content. 
     In one or more embodiments, the cost optimization includes an optimal cost of delivery of the content for particular geographical regions. In one or more embodiments, the system determines a content staging recommendation based upon the cost optimization including a recommendation of an amount of content to be staged and one or more recommended geographical locations to stage the content for optimal delivery of the content. 
     An embodiment can be implemented as a software application. The application implementing an embodiment can be configured as a modification of an existing networking system or platform, as a separate application that operates in conjunction with an existing networking system or platform, a standalone application, or some combination thereof. 
     The illustrative embodiments are described with respect to certain types of tools and platforms, procedures and algorithms, services, devices, data processing systems, environments, components, and applications only as examples. Any specific manifestations of these and other similar artifacts are not intended to be limiting to the invention. Any suitable manifestation of these and other similar artifacts can be selected within the scope of the illustrative embodiments. 
     Furthermore, the illustrative embodiments may be implemented with respect to any type of data, data source, or access to a data source over a data network. Any type of data storage device may provide the data to an embodiment of the invention, either locally at a data processing system or over a data network, within the scope of the invention. Where an embodiment is described using a mobile device, any type of data storage device suitable for use with the mobile device may provide the data to such embodiment, either locally at the mobile device or over a data network, within the scope of the illustrative embodiments. 
     The illustrative embodiments are described using specific code, designs, architectures, protocols, layouts, schematics, and tools only as examples and are not limiting to the illustrative embodiments. Furthermore, the illustrative embodiments are described in some instances using particular software, tools, and data processing environments only as an example for the clarity of the description. The illustrative embodiments may be used in conjunction with other comparable or similarly purposed structures, systems, applications, or architectures. For example, other comparable mobile devices, structures, systems, applications, or architectures therefor, may be used in conjunction with such embodiment of the invention within the scope of the invention. An illustrative embodiment may be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination thereof. 
     The examples in this disclosure are used only for the clarity of the description and are not limiting to the illustrative embodiments. Additional data, operations, actions, tasks, activities, and manipulations will be conceivable from this disclosure and the same are contemplated within the scope of the illustrative embodiments. 
     Any advantages listed herein are only examples and are not intended to be limiting to the illustrative embodiments. Additional or different advantages may be realized by specific illustrative embodiments. 
     Furthermore, a particular illustrative embodiment may have some, all, or none of the advantages listed above. 
     With reference to the figures and in particular with reference to  FIGS. 1 and 2 , these figures are example diagrams of data processing environments in which illustrative embodiments may be implemented.  FIGS. 1 and 2  are only examples and are not intended to assert or imply any limitation with regard to the environments in which different embodiments may be implemented. A particular implementation may make many modifications to the depicted environments based on the following description. 
       FIG. 1  depicts a block diagram of a network of data processing systems in which illustrative embodiments may be implemented. Data processing environment  100  is a network of computers in which the illustrative embodiments may be implemented. Data processing environment  100  includes network  102 . Network  102  is the medium used to provide communications links between various devices and computers connected together within data processing environment  100 . Network  102  may include connections, such as wire, wireless communication links, or fiber optic cables. 
     Clients or servers are only example roles of certain data processing systems connected to network  102  and are not intended to exclude other configurations or roles for these data processing systems. Server  104  and server  106  couple to network  102  along with storage unit  108 . Software applications may execute on any computer in data processing environment  100 . Clients  110 ,  112 , and  114  are also coupled to network  102 . A data processing system, such as server  104  or  106 , or client  110 ,  112 , or  114  may contain data and may have software applications or software tools executing thereon. 
     Only as an example, and without implying any limitation to such architecture,  FIG. 1  depicts certain components that are usable in an example implementation of an embodiment. For example, servers  104  and  106 , and clients  110 ,  112 ,  114 , are depicted as servers and clients only as example and not to imply a limitation to a client-server architecture. As another example, an embodiment can be distributed across several data processing systems and a data network as shown, whereas another embodiment can be implemented on a single data processing system within the scope of the illustrative embodiments. Data processing systems  104 ,  106 ,  110 ,  112 , and  114  also represent example nodes in a cluster, partitions, and other configurations suitable for implementing an embodiment. 
     Device  132  is an example of a device described herein. For example, device  132  can take the form of a smartphone, a tablet computer, a laptop computer, client  110  in a stationary or a portable form, a wearable computing device, or any other suitable device. Any software application described as executing in another data processing system in  FIG. 1  can be configured to execute in device  132  in a similar manner. Any data or information stored or produced in another data processing system in  FIG. 1  can be configured to be stored or produced in device  132  in a similar manner. 
     Servers  104  and  106 , storage unit  108 , and clients  110 ,  112 , and  114 , and device  132  may couple to network  102  using wired connections, wireless communication protocols, or other suitable data connectivity. Clients  110 ,  112 , and  114  may be, for example, personal computers or network computers. 
     In the depicted example, server  104  may provide data, such as boot files, operating system images, and applications to clients  110 ,  112 , and  114 . Clients  110 ,  112 , and  114  may be clients to server  104  in this example. Clients  110 ,  112 ,  114 , or some combination thereof, may include their own data, boot files, operating system images, and applications. Data processing environment  100  may include additional servers, clients, and other devices that are not shown. Server  104  includes an application  105  that may be configured to implement one or more of the functions described herein for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with one or more embodiments. 
     Server  106  includes a media platform  107  configured to allow users to post content and express a sentiment towards the content as described herein with respect to various embodiments. Storage device  108  includes one or more databases  109  configured to store data such as a content corpus as described herein. Data processing environment  100  further includes a content delivery network (CDN)  120  configured to deliver content determined to be trending or “going viral” in one or more particular geographic locations as described with respect to certain embodiments herein. 
     In the depicted example, data processing environment  100  may be the Internet. Network  102  may represent a collection of networks and gateways that use the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) and other protocols to communicate with one another. At the heart of the Internet is a backbone of data communication links between major nodes or host computers, including thousands of commercial, governmental, educational, and other computer systems that route data and messages. Of course, data processing environment  100  also may be implemented as a number of different types of networks, such as for example, an intranet, a local area network (LAN), or a wide area network (WAN).  FIG. 1  is intended as an example, and not as an architectural limitation for the different illustrative embodiments. 
     Among other uses, data processing environment  100  may be used for implementing a client-server environment in which the illustrative embodiments may be implemented. A client-server environment enables software applications and data to be distributed across a network such that an application functions by using the interactivity between a client data processing system and a server data processing system. Data processing environment  100  may also employ a service oriented architecture where interoperable software components distributed across a network may be packaged together as coherent business applications. Data processing environment  100  may also take the form of a cloud, and employ a cloud computing model of service delivery for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g. networks, network bandwidth, servers, processing, memory, storage, applications, virtual machines, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or interaction with a provider of the service. 
     With reference to  FIG. 2 , this figure depicts a block diagram of a data processing system in which illustrative embodiments may be implemented. Data processing system  200  is an example of a computer, such as servers  104  and  106 , or clients  110 ,  112 , and  114  in  FIG. 1 , or another type of device in which computer usable program code or instructions implementing the processes may be located for the illustrative embodiments. 
     Data processing system  200  is also representative of a data processing system or a configuration therein, such as device  132  or server  104  in  FIG. 1  in which computer usable program code or instructions implementing the processes of the illustrative embodiments may be located. Data processing system  200  is described as a computer only as an example, without being limited thereto. Implementations in the form of other devices, such as device  132  in  FIG. 1 , may modify data processing system  200 , such as by adding a touch interface, and even eliminate certain depicted components from data processing system  200  without departing from the general description of the operations and functions of data processing system  200  described herein. 
     In the depicted example, data processing system  200  employs a hub architecture including North Bridge and memory controller hub (NB/MCH)  202  and South Bridge and input/output (I/O) controller hub (SB/ICH)  204 . Processing unit  206 , main memory  208 , and graphics processor  210  are coupled to North Bridge and memory controller hub (NB/MCH)  202 . Processing unit  206  may contain one or more processors and may be implemented using one or more heterogeneous processor systems. Processing unit  206  may be a multi-core processor. Graphics processor  210  may be coupled to NB/MCH  202  through an accelerated graphics port (AGP) in certain implementations. 
     In the depicted example, local area network (LAN) adapter  212  is coupled to South Bridge and I/O controller hub (SB/ICH)  204 . Audio adapter  216 , keyboard and mouse adapter  220 , modem  222 , read only memory (ROM)  224 , universal serial bus (USB) and other ports  232 , and PCI/PCIe devices  234  are coupled to South Bridge and I/O controller hub  204  through bus  238 . Hard disk drive (HDD) or solid-state drive (SSD)  226  and CD-ROM  230  are coupled to South Bridge and I/O controller hub  204  through bus  240 . PCI/PCIe devices  234  may include, for example, Ethernet adapters, add-in cards, and PC cards for notebook computers. PCI uses a card bus controller, while PCIe does not. ROM  224  may be, for example, a flash binary input/output system (BIOS). Hard disk drive  226  and CD-ROM  230  may use, for example, an integrated drive electronics (IDE), serial advanced technology attachment (SATA) interface, or variants such as external-SATA (eSATA) and micro-SATA (mSATA). A super I/O (SIO) device  236  may be coupled to South Bridge and I/O controller hub (SB/ICH)  204  through bus  238 . 
     Memories, such as main memory  208 , ROM  224 , or flash memory (not shown), are some examples of computer usable storage devices. Hard disk drive or solid state drive  226 , CD-ROM  230 , and other similarly usable devices are some examples of computer usable storage devices including a computer usable storage medium. 
     An operating system runs on processing unit  206 . The operating system coordinates and provides control of various components within data processing system  200  in  FIG. 2 . The operating system may be a commercially available operating system for any type of computing platform, including but not limited to server systems, personal computers, and mobile devices. An object oriented or other type of programming system may operate in conjunction with the operating system and provide calls to the operating system from programs or applications executing on data processing system  200 . 
     Instructions for the operating system, the object-oriented programming system, and applications or programs, such as application  105  in  FIG. 1 , are located on storage devices, such as in the form of code  226 A on hard disk drive  226 , and may be loaded into at least one of one or more memories, such as main memory  208 , for execution by processing unit  206 . The processes of the illustrative embodiments may be performed by processing unit  206  using computer implemented instructions, which may be located in a memory, such as, for example, main memory  208 , read only memory  224 , or in one or more peripheral devices. 
     Furthermore, in one case, code  226 A may be downloaded over network  201 A from remote system  201 B, where similar code  201 C is stored on a storage device  201 D. in another case, code  226 A may be downloaded over network  201 A to remote system  201 B, where downloaded code  201 C is stored on a storage device  201 D. 
     The hardware in  FIGS. 1-2  may vary depending on the implementation. Other internal hardware or peripheral devices, such as flash memory, equivalent non-volatile memory, or optical disk drives and the like, may be used in addition to or in place of the hardware depicted in  FIGS. 1-2 . In addition, the processes of the illustrative embodiments may be applied to a multiprocessor data processing system. 
     In some illustrative examples, data processing system  200  may be a personal digital assistant (PDA), which is generally configured with flash memory to provide non-volatile memory for storing operating system files and/or user-generated data. A bus system may comprise one or more buses, such as a system bus, an I/O bus, and a PCI bus. Of course, the bus system may be implemented using any type of communications fabric or architecture that provides for a transfer of data between different components or devices attached to the fabric or architecture. 
     A communications unit may include one or more devices used to transmit and receive data, such as a modem or a network adapter. A memory may be, for example, main memory  208  or a cache, such as the cache found in North Bridge and memory controller hub  202 . A processing unit may include one or more processors or CPUs. 
     The depicted examples in  FIGS. 1-2  and above-described examples are not meant to imply architectural limitations. For example, data processing system  200  also may be a tablet computer, laptop computer, or telephone device in addition to taking the form of a mobile or wearable device. 
     Where a computer or data processing system is described as a virtual machine, a virtual device, or a virtual component, the virtual machine, virtual device, or the virtual component operates in the manner of data processing system  200  using virtualized manifestation of some or all components depicted in data processing system  200 . For example, in a virtual machine, virtual device, or virtual component, processing unit  206  is manifested as a virtualized instance of all or some number of hardware processing units  206  available in a host data processing system, main memory  208  is manifested as a virtualized instance of all or some portion of main memory  208  that may be available in the host data processing system, and disk  226  is manifested as a virtualized instance of all or some portion of disk  226  that may be available in the host data processing system. The host data processing system in such cases is represented by data processing system  200 . 
     With reference to  FIG. 3 , this figure depicts a block diagram of an example configuration  300  for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment. The example embodiment includes an application  302 . In a particular embodiment, application  302  is an example of application  105  of  FIG. 1 . 
     Application  302  receives media content  304 , geographical location data  306 , and media interaction data  308  from a networking platform. Media content  304  includes content posted to a networking platform. Media interaction data  308  includes data indicating interactions between users associated with a networking platform including interactions indicative of a sentiment of the users towards media content  304 . Geographical location data  306  includes data indicative of one or more geographical locations associated with one or more of media content  304  and media interaction data  308 . In a particular embodiment, geographical location data  306  includes information indicative of a geographical location of one or more users associated with media interaction data  308 . 
     Application  302  includes a sentiment analysis component  310 , one or more cognitive learning models  312 , a viral content prediction component  314 , a geographic prediction component  316 , a cost classification component  318 , a cost optimization selection component  320 , and a content staging recommendation component  322 . 
     In the embodiment, sentiment analysis component  310  is configured to determine a sentiment of media content  304  based upon media interaction data  308 . In a particular embodiment, sentiment analysis component  310  determines a sentiment of media content  304  using NLP. Cognitive learning model(s)  312  include one or more cognitive learning models used for predicting if media content  304  is expected to trend at a predetermined level or go viral. Viral content prediction component  314  is configured to predict if media content  304  is expected to trend or go viral based upon the sentiment using cognitive learning model(s)  312 . 
     In an embodiment, viral content prediction component  314  is configured to use a non-monotonic reasoning approach to evaluate, based on trends and data derived from media interaction data  308 , which media content will actually become viral. In an example, assume four discrete content sets (A, B, C, and D) exist in media content  304  of which any one or more of the content sets could become viral first, two content sets could become viral at the same time, three content sets may become viral at the same time, all four content sets may become viral at the same time, or no content sets become viral at the same time. 
     In a particular embodiment, viral content prediction component  314  utilizes a truth maintenance system (TMS) and Dempster-Schafer (DS) mathematical theory of evidence to form cognitive learning model(s)  312 . The TMS collects evidence about each of the content sets in media content  304  in parallel and also collects evidence about the content sets from media interaction data  308  about which outcome is more likely to happen. For example, the TMS maintains a set of facts (a1, a2, a3, . . . an), some of which support that content set A will become viral while others support that A will not become viral. Similarly, the TMS maintains similar evidence regarding the other content sets B, C, D. Further, a1 may be at a given point in time be supporting evidence that A will become viral, but then new information a7 is introduced later in time that could invalidate a1. In other words, because of the facts of a7, viral content prediction component  314  can now conclude that a1 suggests that A will not become viral. Such cognitive thinking is often referred to as non-monotonic reasoning in computer science or logic processing. 
     In addition to a TMS, viral content prediction component  314  leverages the DS mathematical theory of evidence to model the beliefs in all the pieces of evidence such as a1, a2, . . . an, in which the TMS in combination with the DS approach allows viral content prediction component  314  to manage the belief in each of these sets and revise them when necessary in light of new information leading to whether content set A will become viral or not. In addition, viral content prediction component  314  may utilize the DS mathematical theory of evidence to assign a ranking or score to each of the evidence elements (a1, a2, . . . an). 
     A more detailed discussion of the application of the TMS and DS theory of belief as applied to predicting of viral content is described herein. The utility of probability theory for modeling reasoning with uncertainty is often limited by the lack of sufficient data to accurately estimate the prior and conditional probabilities required in using Bayes&#39; rule. The DS theory sidesteps the requirement for this data by accepting an incomplete probabilistic model without prior or conditional probabilities. Given the incompleteness of the model, the DS theory does not answer arbitrary probabilistic questions. Rather than estimating the probability of a hypothesis, the DS theory uses belief intervals to estimate how close the evidence is to determining the truth of a hypothesis. 
     When used to model sources of evidence that are not independent, the DS theory can yield misleading and counter intuitive results. Since sets of competing evidence regarding whether a content is going viral or not are available, the DS approach assists significantly in the process of avoiding errors. It should be noted that a non-monotonic approach in accumulating assertions have provisions for retracting assertions, and the D-S approach can be used together with a non-monotonic approach. 
     The use of the D-S approach requires an inference engine to deduce belief functions. Particular embodiments utilize an assumption-based TMS to provide a symbolic mechanism for identifying a set of assumptions needed to assemble the desired proofs. One or more embodiments, assign probabilities to the assumptions, and the TMS is used as a symbolic engine for computing degrees of belief sought by the DS theory. Another use of the TMS is to handle the effect of retracting assumptions when the assumptions are invalidated by the evidence and to keep track of multiple plausible sets of assertions which can coexist in the absence of complete knowledge. TMS arose as a way of providing the ability to do dependency backtracking when assumptions or assertions are retracted because they are contradicted by the current knowledge, and to support non-monotonic reasoning. Non-monotonic reasoning is an approach in which axioms and/or rules of inference are extended to make it possible to reason with incomplete information. 
     In an embodiment, a formalism for modeling belief using the DS theory is as follows: 
     Let X be the universal set which is the set representing all possible states of a system under consideration. The power set
 
2 X  
 
is the set of all subsets of X including the empty set Ø. For example, if:
 
 X={a,b} 
 
then
 
2 X   ={Ø,{a},{b},X}.| 
 
The elements of the power set can be taken to represent propositions concerning the actual state of the system, by containing all and only the states in which the proposition is true.
 
     The theory of evidence assigns a belief mass to each element of the power set. Formally, a function
 
 m:  2 X →[0,1]
 
is called a basic belief assignment (BBA), when it has two properties. First, the mass of the empty set is zero:
 
 m (Ø)=0.
 
Second, the masses of the remaining members of the power set add up to a total of 1:
 
                 ∑     A   ∈     2   X         ⁢           ⁢     m   ⁡     (   A   )         =   1         
The mass m(A) of A, a given member of the power set, expresses the proportion of all relevant and available evidence that supports the claim that the actual state belongs to A but to no particular subset of A. The value of m(A) pertains only to the set A and makes no additional claims about any subsets of A, each of which have, by definition, their own mass.
 
     From the mass assignments, the upper and lower bounds of a probability interval can be defined. This interval contains the precise probability of a set of interest (in the classical sense), and is bounded by two non-additive continuous measures called belief (or support) and plausibility:
 
 bel ( A )≤ P ( A )≤ pl ( A ).|
 
The belief bel(A) for a set A is defined as the sum of all the masses of subsets of the set of interest:
 
     
       
         
           
             
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     The plausibility pl(A) is the sum of all the masses of the sets B that intersect the set of interest A: 
     
       
         
           
             
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     The two measures are related to each other as follows:
 
 pl ( A )=1− bel ( Ā )
 
     And conversely, for finite A, given the belief measure bel(B) for all subsets B of A, we can find the masses m(A) with the following inverse function: 
               m   ⁡     (   A   )       =       ∑     B   ❘     B   ⊆   A         ⁢           ⁢         (     -   1     )            A   -   B            ⁢     bel   ⁡     (   B   )                 
where |A−B| is the difference of the cardinalities of the two sets.
 
     It follows from the last two equations that, for a finite set X, you need know only one of the three (mass, belief, or plausibility) to deduce the other two; although it may be necessary to know the values for many sets in order to calculate one of the other values for a particular set. In the case of an infinite X, there can be well-defined belief and plausibility functions but no well-defined mass function. 
     To combine evidence of two independent sets of mass assignments, that is to combine evidence from different sources, Dempster&#39;s rule of combination is used. Dempster&#39;s rule strongly emphasizes the agreement between multiple sources and ignores the conflicting evidence through a normalization factor. Specifically, the combination (called the joint mass) is calculated from the two sets of masses m 1  and m 2  in the following manner: 
                 m     1   ,   2       ⁡     (   ∅   )       =       0   ❘     
     ⁢       m     1   ,   2       ⁡     (   A   )         =         (       m   1     ⊕     m   2       )     ⁢     (   A   )       =         1     1   -   K       ⁢       ∑       B   ⋂   C     =     A   ≠   ∅         ⁢           ⁢         m   1     ⁡     (   B   )       ⁢       m   2     ⁡     (   C   )             ❘     
     ⁢   where                     K   =         ∑       B   ⋂   C     =   ∅       ⁢           ⁢       m   1     ⁢     (   B   )     ⁢         m   2     ⁡     (   C   )       .         ❘           
and K is a measure of the amount of conflict between the two mass sets.
 
     In one or more embodiments, viral content prediction component  314  provides for a systematic approach to predict that a specific media content will go viral based upon the TMS-based and DS-based cognitive models. 
     Geographic prediction component  318  is configured to iteratively apply the prediction produced by viral content prediction component  314  to a global model to predict whether the content will go viral in a particular geographical location. In a particular embodiment, geographic prediction component  318  uses a multiple geographic prediction procedure to dynamically convert content to conduct an analysis to yield a structured approach for viral prediction for certain geographic locations based on trending data associated with one or more other specific geographic locations. In one or more embodiments, geographic prediction component  318  enables an alignment between the “viral” nature of each media content across multiple geographic locations. For example, geographic prediction component  318  may determine that certain type of content that goes viral in Spain may be more likely to go viral in Ecuador six hours later according to progress of a day across time zones, but may determine that the content will not go viral in Brazil. 
     Cost classification component  318  is configured to determine a cost classification of trending content indicating a cost of delivery of the trending content in a particular geographic area by considering certain factors such as bandwidth costs in each geographical area. Cost optimization selection component  320  is configured to employ a cost estimation function that is cost-focused to implement cost reduction within a cloud-based hosting environment while maximizing business value to the content owner. In a particular embodiment, cost optimization selection component  320  is configured to establish an upper boundary (e.g., 0.9) and a lower boundary (0.5) for cost-based optimization. In one or more embodiments, cost optimization selection component  320  determines an optimal hosting location and optimal content quality for the hosting location to deliver the content in the particular geographical locations. For example, cost optimization selection component  320  may determine an optimal quality of delivery of the content in a particular geographical location based upon bandwidth availability and device capability in the geographical location. In an example, a particular geographical location may include use of a large number of mobile devices for viewing media content as opposed to a computer or television. In such a situation, cost optimization selection component  320  may determine that the media content may be provided with at a lower quality that consumes less bandwidth, thus saving bandwidth costs in the particular geographical location. 
     Content staging recommendation component  322  is configured to provide a content staging recommendation  324  to a content provider based upon the cost optimization function determined by cost optimization selection component  320 . In a particular embodiment, content staging recommendation component  322  uses cognitive processing to derive a cloud-based content staging recommendation to host an optimal amount of media content to be staged and a location for optimal delivery while minimizing cost of delivering the content to the content owner. In a particular embodiment, content staging recommendation component  322  may determine that to save bandwidth costs, the potentially viral content should be re-encoded to a lower quality that reduces the overall size of the media content. In one or more embodiments, content staging recommendation  324  is used to configure a CDN to provide the media content in an optimal manner. 
     With reference to  FIG. 4 , this figure depicts an example sequence  400  for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment. In the embodiment, a system uses a prediction model  402  to analyze geographic data and media interactions  404  associated with media content using a DS algorithm  406  and TMS  408  as described herein with respect to various embodiments. Prediction model  402  determines a viral prediction triggering event using iterative processing  412  to determine viral content scope  414 . Viral content scope  414  includes an identification of particular media content that is trending (e.g., going viral) and one or more geographical locations in which the media content is expected to trend. 
     The system performs data collection  416  to collect data such as content interaction data from users associated with the media content and one or more geographical areas and stored the data in database  418  including a content corpus having media content, content interactions, and geographical location data. The system performs data classification  420  on the data to identify one or more classification types associated with the data. The system performs cost classification  422  of trending content indicating a cost of delivery of the trending content in a particular geographic area and stores the cost classification within database  418 . The system further performs a cost estimation function  424  to determine an optimal hosting location and optimal content quality for the hosting location to deliver the content in the particular geographical locations. 
     The system further provides a content staging recommendation includes feedback and reporting information  428  to a content owner  430  based upon the cost optimization function. In one or more embodiments, the feedback and reporting information includes a ranking recommendation indicating a ranking of delivery options for delivering the media content by a CDN to particular geographic locations. In particular embodiments, the delivery options are ranked by an optimized cost considering cost of delivery and business value. 
     With reference to  FIG. 5 , this figure depicts a flowchart of an example process  500  for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery in accordance with an illustrative embodiment. In block  502 , application  105  receives content associated with a media platform. In particular embodiments, the content includes one or more of video, image, audio data, or social media content. In block  504 , application  105  analyzes the content and content interactions associated with the content to determine a sentiment of the content using cognitive processing. In one or more embodiments, the sentiment is an indication of an attitude, view, or opinion toward the content from one or more users of the media platform. In one or more embodiments, the sentiment is indicative of a popularity of the content among the one or more users. In a particular embodiment, application  105  analyzes the content using natural language processing (NLP). 
     In block  506 , application  105  predicts a probability of the content going viral or otherwise trending above a predetermined level in one or more geographical locations based upon the sentiment and geographical location data. In block  508 , application  105  determines if the probability is greater than a threshold value. If application  105  determines that the probability is not greater than the threshold value, process  500  proceeds to block  510 . In block  510 , application  105  configures a CDN to deliver the content using a default content delivery configuration and process  500  ends. 
     If application  105  determines that the probability is greater than the threshold value, process  500  proceeds to block  512 . In block  512 , application  105  determines a cost optimization of content delivery for the content. In one or more embodiments, the cost optimization includes an optimal cost of delivery of the content for particular geographical regions. In block  514 , the system determines a content staging recommendation based upon the cost optimization including a recommendation of a quality of delivery of the content to be staged and one or more recommended geographical locations to stage the content for optimal delivery of the content. In a particular embodiment, application  105  uses cognitive processing to derive a cloud-based content staging recommendation to host an optimal amount of content to be staged and a location for optimal delivery while minimizing cost of delivering the content to the content owner. In particular embodiments, the content staging recommendation includes a ranking of delivery options for delivering the content by a CDN to particular geographic locations. In particular embodiments, the delivery options are ranked by an optimized cost considering cost of delivery and business value of delivering the content in the recommended manner. 
     In block  516 , application  105  provides the content staging recommendation to a content provider or content owner. In block  518 , application  105  determines whether the recommendation has been accepted by the content provider or content owner. If application  105  determines that the recommendation has not been accepted by the content provider or content owner, process  500  continues to block  510  in which application  105  configures the CDN to deliver the content using the default content delivery configuration and process  500  ends. 
     If application  105  determines that the recommendation has been accepted by the content provider or content owner, process  500  continues to block  520 . In block  520 , application  105  configures the CDN based upon the content staging recommendation to deliver the content in the predicted geographical locations. Process  500  then ends. 
     Thus, a computer implemented method, system or apparatus, and computer program product are provided in the illustrative embodiments for trending media content prediction for cloud-based delivery and other related features, functions, or operations. Where an embodiment or a portion thereof is described with respect to a type of device, the computer implemented method, system or apparatus, the computer program product, or a portion thereof, are adapted or configured for use with a suitable and comparable manifestation of that type of device. 
     Where an embodiment is described as implemented in an application, the delivery of the application in a Software as a Service (SaaS) model is contemplated within the scope of the illustrative embodiments. In a SaaS model, the capability of the application implementing an embodiment is provided to a user by executing the application in a cloud infrastructure. The user can access the application using a variety of client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based e-mail), or other light-weight client-applications. The user does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including the network, servers, operating systems, or the storage of the cloud infrastructure. In some cases, the user may not even manage or control the capabilities of the SaaS application. In some other cases, the SaaS implementation of the application may permit a possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings. 
     The present invention may be a system, a method, and/or a computer program product at any possible technical detail level of integration. The computer program product may include a computer readable storage medium (or media) having computer readable program instructions thereon for causing a processor to carry out aspects of the present invention. 
     The computer readable storage medium can be a tangible device that can retain and store instructions for use by an instruction execution device. The computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but is not limited to, an electronic storage device, a magnetic storage device, an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, a semiconductor storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. A non-exhaustive list of more specific examples of the computer readable storage medium includes the following: a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or Flash memory), a static random access memory (SRAM), a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a memory stick, a floppy disk, a mechanically encoded device such as punch-cards or raised structures in a groove having instructions recorded thereon, and any suitable combination of the foregoing. A computer readable storage medium, as used herein, is not to be construed as being transitory signals per se, such as radio waves or other freely propagating electromagnetic waves, electromagnetic waves propagating through a waveguide or other transmission media (e.g., light pulses passing through a fiber-optic cable), or electrical signals transmitted through a wire. 
     Computer readable program instructions described herein can be downloaded to respective computing/processing devices from a computer readable storage medium or to an external computer or external storage device via a network, for example, the Internet, a local area network, a wide area network and/or a wireless network. The network may comprise copper transmission cables, optical transmission fibers, wireless transmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers and/or edge servers. A network adapter card or network interface in each computing/processing device receives computer readable program instructions from the network and forwards the computer readable program instructions for storage in a computer readable storage medium within the respective computing/processing device. 
     Computer readable program instructions for carrying out operations of the present invention may be assembler instructions, instruction-set-architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state-setting data, configuration data for integrated circuitry, or either source code or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Smalltalk, C++, or the like, and procedural programming languages, such as the “C” programming language or similar programming languages. The computer readable program instructions may execute entirely on the user&#39;s computer, partly on the user&#39;s computer, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user&#39;s computer and partly on a remote computer or entirely on the remote computer or server. In the latter scenario, the remote computer may be connected to the user&#39;s computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer (for example, through the Internet using an Internet Service Provider). In some embodiments, electronic circuitry including, for example, programmable logic circuitry, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), or programmable logic arrays (PLA) may execute the computer readable program instructions by utilizing state information of the computer readable program instructions to personalize the electronic circuitry, in order to perform aspects of the present invention. 
     Aspects of the present invention are described herein with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer readable program instructions. 
     These computer readable program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks. These computer readable program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium that can direct a computer, a programmable data processing apparatus, and/or other devices to function in a particular manner, such that the computer readable storage medium having instructions stored therein comprises an article of manufacture including instructions which implement aspects of the function/act specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks. 
     The computer readable program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer, other programmable data processing apparatus, or other device to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer, other programmable apparatus or other device to produce a computer implemented process, such that the instructions which execute on the computer, other programmable apparatus, or other device implement the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks. 
     The flowchart and block diagrams in the Figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of systems, methods, and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of instructions, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function(s). In some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the blocks may occur out of the order noted in the Figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems that perform the specified functions or acts or carry out combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.