Patent Publication Number: US-2007123755-A1

Title: System and Method for Repetitive Interval Clinical Evaluations

Description:
RELATED APPLICATIONS  
      This application is a continuation-in-part of and claims priority to U.S. application, Ser. No. 11/251,555, by Rice, entitled “System for Repetitive Interval Clinical Evaluation”, filed on Oct. 14, 2005, which claims priority to U.S. Pat. No. 6,955,647 B2, by Rice, entitled “System and Method for Repetitive Interval Clinical Evaluations”, filed Dec. 6, 2002, which is a continuation in part of U.S. Non provisional patent application 10/174,498, file Jun. 17, 2002, which are incorporated by reference, respectively, as if each was sent forth in its entirety herein. 
    
    
     TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION  
      The present invention relates to healthcare systems and more particularly, to a system and method of modeling chronic disease using a non-linear model together with a set of optimization routines to reduce healthcare costs and improve quality at the same time.  
     BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION  
      More than 90 million Americans live with chronic diseases. Care for these Americans accounts for more than 60% of the nation&#39;s medical care costs. By definition, a chronic disease progresses over time with a generally predictable set of costly exacerbations, complications and recurrences.  
      A central precept to the discussions on health care costs is that there is a cost-quality function from which one may derive a linear cost-quality curve. On such a cost quality curve, so the argument goes, any reduction in the planned budgetary growth of health care dollars will result in lower-quality health care. To the contrary, however, the actual cost-quality curve for health care has been shown to be significantly non-linear.  FIGS. 1A and 1B  depict the perceived and actual cost-quality curves showing the relationship between cost and health care quality.  FIG. 1A  depicts an expected cost-quality curve  10 , while  FIG. 1B  depicts the actual non-linear cost-quality curve  12 .  
      In the actual health care cost-quality curve  12  of  FIG. 1B , increased costs do not always correlate to improved quality. Instead, there has been shown to be a “quality valley”  14 , where health care quality actually decreases with increased expenditures for health care. Understanding this potential “quality valley”  14  is essential to the creation of real improvements and cost savings in health care. That is, if “quality valley”  14  could be either carefully managed against for either its elimination or, if it cannot be eliminated, its avoidance, there could be an opportunity simultaneously decrease costs and improve quality.  
      Research for two common medical diagnoses, congestive heart failure (CHF) and pneumonia, for example, indicates wide variation in outcomes among providers. By matching severity-adjusted mortality data to hospital-specific charge data, one can observe that higher average charges often associate with a lower quality of care.  
      These results support the conclusion that significant 5 variations in charges exists among hospitals. These variances may imply that higher costs associate with lower quality (resulting, for example, in higher severity-adjusted mortality rates). This represents unnecessary resource utilization.  
      Making comparisons among the ten countries having the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita further validates this conclusion. Data from the United States Statistical Abstract indicates that the United States spends the largest percentage of its gross domestic product (GDP) on health care, while exhibiting one of the world&#39;s lowest life expectancy at birth (LEAB rates). International health expenditure studies are difficult to conduct, however, because of factors such as data quality, variable accounting methods, and significant social-cultural differences. Despite these shortcomings, a highly reasonable conclusion remains that, with the present systems and methods for managing diseases such as CHF and pneumonia, spending more dollars on health care results in a decrease in health care quality received, as measured on a large scale, for example, by LEAB rates.  
      Although every physician should consider the best interests of his/her patients, the medical system has evolved with a history of incentives, threats (e.g., medical malpractice), and customs that can significantly increase costs, while not improving quality.  
      Additionally, disease intervention processes and treatments, all too frequently seek to improve patient comfort, longevity, and physical functioning. These processes and treatments employ surrogate endpoints based on logical, but unproven, extensions of an existing, but incomplete, disease process model. A great number of physician actions are based on these surrogate endpoints. These surrogate endpoints, however, often lead to increased costs and examinations without improved results.  
      A need exists, therefore, for significant efforts to optimize the cost and quality relationship of healthcare. Prior efforts focus on the development of “best practices” protocols, medical error reduction, bulk purchasing and pharmaceutical benefits management, new medicine, minimally invasive surgery and the redesign of care systems. These efforts seek to more effectively manage demand for health services. While past practices are important, these efforts fail to address any way to reduce costs and improve quality in healthcare. In particular, they already fail to provide for complication identification and proactive symptom treatment of chronic disease exacerbation in the individual patient.  
      One avenue of attempting to better practice early complication identification and proactive symptom treatment has been through the use of computers. Such attempts to use computers, for example, may center on communicating automatically with a patient regarding a previously diagnosed disease. In such processes, automatic therapy adjustment becomes responsive to information received from the patient. Such automated schemes of medical treatment typically involve the use of computers and the Internet to treat patients remotely. The purpose of these conventional schemes of remote treatment by using computers or Internet avoids unnecessary office visits, thereby effecting savings in overall healthcare costs. Thereby, a physician may be virtually “present” at the patient&#39;s location and help treat the patients remotely.  
      Unfortunately, attempts to automate patient-physician communications do not change previous paradigms for certain chronic diseases. With many of these chronic diseases, infrequent physician visits, either in person or through a virtual office, are accepted as normal. Thus, it has not been possible to identify evolving complications, exacerbations or recurrences, within certain classes of chronic disease patients. At the same time, early interventions may mitigate a patient&#39;s worsening clinical condition. In fact, in many instances, early interventions may avoid the need for emergency medical services altogether. Also, disease predictive models have not proven effective to predict the worsening of a patient&#39;s condition from chronic diseases. Because of these and other reasons, a standardized therapy based upon broad demographic models is difficult or impossible to employ remotely.  
      A need exists, therefore, for a system and method that allow early detection of chronic disease exacerbations or complications in order to decrease the need for emergency medical services while measurably improving patient outcomes.  
      Returning to the above discussion regarding the health care cost-quality curve, often chronic diseases, such as CHF, exhibit a non-linear cost-quality relationship. Accordingly, managing a patient&#39;s condition preventively, as opposed to remedically, may assist in avoiding a “quality valley.” That is, such preventive management could avoid the situation of increased health care expenditures, ironically, resulting in lower returns in patient outcome. If it were possible to achieve early detection of chronic disease exacerbations or complications, well before the greater cost treatments are necessary, then the health care industry could avoid troubling regions of a non-linear cost-quality curve. In a larger sense, therefore, there is a need for an early detection method and system making it possible to greatly reduce overall health care costs while improving patient quality of life.  
     SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION  
      To achieve these and other advantages and in accordance with the purpose of the present invention, as embodied and broadly described, the present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention includes a computer implemented method of impending a progression of a disease within a patient. The disease is defined to establish the associated parameters of the condition. Repetitive measurements of the disease associated parameters are then entered into a computer system. These measurements are evaluated via the computer system, which then performs a statistical analysis on a patient&#39;s history. The goal of this analysis is to find a way to minimize costs by providing preventative treatment in the manner to do the most good for the chronic condition. This analysis can be used to alert the patient to get care as needed based on the performed statistical analysis. This statistical analysis is transmitted over a network to a plurality of health care providers who can apply secondary prevention techniques and methodologies to alleviate potential future problem.  
      The present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention comprises an apparatus to identify potential future problems in a patient that will require medical intervention, comprising: a computer device made up of a processor and memory. The computer memory contains programming that executes a series of steps. The computer collects measurements on a set of disease associated chaotic parameters repetitively, and the stores the measurements in a data storage location. The repetitive measurements of disease associated chaotic parameters are evaluated. This evaluation is combined with historical measurements contained in the memory. The statistical analysis then occurs when has the goal of minimizing costs by providing a higher quality of care by using preventive medicine to minimize the need for more expensive emergency care. The program also alerts both the patient and health care providers to potential problems.  
      The present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention comprises a method to impede disease progression. A set of disease associated chaotic parameters are defined. Once defined, the parameters are collected by taking repetitive measurements of the defined parameters by the patient interfacing with a computer. The disease associated chaotic parameters are then evaluated and stored in computer memory. A statistical analysis on the patient is then performed with the objective of providing preventative treatment to minimize the need for emergency treatments in the future. The method also insures that secondary medical procedures are ready, while the patient and a health care team are made aware of a situation that could require future intervention via a network connection.  
      The present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention comprises a computer implemented method of reducing healthcare costs. Starting with a diagnosis of a patient&#39;s condition, a set of disease associated parameters are established. Repetitive measurements are taken and evaluated. Statistical and medical analysis on a patient&#39;s history are performed bade on the repetitive measurements. The objective is to minimize costs by providing low cost preventative treatment to minimize the need for more expensive emergency treatments in the future; It can also alert the patient to those statistical or clinical analyses which indicate a potential future problem that requires intervention, allowing them to apply secondary prevention techniques to address said potential future problem and/or impede a progression of the condition.  
      The present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention comprises a computer program embodied on a computer-readable medium for monitoring and controlling a method of impending a progression of a disease within a patient. As before, a set of disease associated parameters are defined, and repetitive measurements the parameters are taken. The measurements are evaluated and a statistical analysis on a patient&#39;s history of measurements is performed. The objective of the analysis is to minimizing costs by providing low cost preventative treatment to minimize the need for more expensive emergency treatments in the future. There is also the added benefit of alerting the patient to those statistical analyses which indicate a potential future problem that requires intervention and allows the application of secondary prevention techniques to address said potential future problem.  
      The present invention can be characterized according to one aspect the invention comprises a computer program embodied on a computer-readable medium for monitoring and controlling an apparatus to identify potential future problems in a patient that will require medical intervention. The device is comprised of a computer device comprised of a computer memory and a compute processor. The computer memory is operable to store lines of code that when executed by the computer processor. The computer program executes several steps. It collects repetitive measurements on a set of disease associated chaotic parameters and stores them in a data storage location. It then evaluates the repetitive measurements of disease parameters and combines the repetitive measurements with historical repetitive measurements stored in the data storage location. It then performs statistical analysis on a patient&#39;s history of repetitive measurements of the parameters, with the objective of minimizing costs by providing low cost preventative treatment to minimize the need for more expensive emergency treatments in the future. This analysis also has the benefit of alerting the patient to a potential future problem that requires intervention. It can also alert a healthcare team that can apply secondary prevention techniques to address said potential future problem.  
      It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only are not restrictive of the invention, as claimed. 
    
    
     BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS  
      The present invention will be described with particular embodiments thereof, and references will be made to the drawings in which:  
       FIGS. 1A and 1B  illustrate perceived linear and actual non-linear relationship between health care costs and quality of care;  
       FIG. 2  provides flow charge depicting one embodiment of the method provided by the present invention;  
       FIG. 3  give a flow diagram illustrating one embodiment of a process performed by the system of the present invention;  
       FIG. 4  shows a set-up process which a patient may employ in using an embodiment of the present invention;  
       FIG. 5-8  and  9 A-B present exemplary screen shots of the steps performed by the health parameter statistical control measurement tool according to an embodiment of the present invention;  
       FIG. 10  depicts an exemplary screen shot of a “Report” according to an embodiment of the present invention;  
       FIG. 11  portrays an exemplary screen shot of an additional alerting step according to an embodiment of the present invention;  
       FIG. 12  shows an exemplary screenshot of an “EXIT” step according to an embodiment of the present invention;  
      FIGS.  13 A-B show one view of a computer spreadsheet having embedded formulae which an embodiment of the present invention may use to record, manipulate, and present information to an interface such as those of  FIGS. 5 through 12 ; and  
       FIG. 14  illustrates a typical computer system for employing the many aspects of the present invention. 
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION  
      The present invention provides a method and system for improved identification and evaluation of exacerbations and complications relating to chronic diseases. One embodiment of the present invention relates to a system to optimize chronic disease care optimization may be defined as the process of early identification of exacerbations, complications and recurrences. Early identification allows a patient to alert his healthcare provider, receives preventive or early stage remedial treatments, and/or avoid costly and intensive remedial medical interventions and/or hospitalizations. The collected data leads to early identification and the opportunity for alerting the patient or the health care provider of a situation.  
      The issue of cost as it relates to the level of healthy care received can be thought of in terms of quality. Quality has been defined as the level of results with respect to the overall cost. The quality goal of this project is to maintain patient health for the longest time for the least cost. Statistics can be used to determine the optimal use of resources at the needed time to maintain a high level of quality care without the patient having to come to a medical setting. Use of these statistical methods can make increase the patient&#39;s quality of care when applied to remote medicine.  
      While statistics cannot be used to give a definitive answer of what will cause an individual to experience a loss of quality, it can be used to give guidance. Through use of multiple measurements over a period of time, a pattern can be established. The information collected can be used in concert with statistical methods to determine if a patient&#39;s overall health is getting better or worse. These methods can be any statistical method known to those skilled in the art, such as the Deming method or any of the methods of quality control.  
      The most effective way to treat the most people with the highest level of care is to optimize resources. One way to optimize the limited resources is in the area of preventative care. Monitoring of a patients condition i.e. metrics and the timely entering of the data can be utilized to assist in the preventive care arena by addressing problems before they become unmanageable.  
      Preventative care of course has quality spectrum. At the upper end of this spectrum is the Deming statistical method, wherein the most good is done with respect to the available resources. This uses statistically placed care to keep a person from getting sick or their condition getting worse. A little further down on the spectrum there might be a system where the patient is allowed to deteriorate to a point where preventative care is still available, but the patient&#39;s health has still decreased and it cost more to recover. The bottom end of the spectrum is no preventative care and everything is treated only when it becomes debilitating. The goal is to use the Deming method to make the most good of available resources, keep cost low, and people healthy.  
      One embodiment of the present invention may use a nonlinear model, such as a chaotic model. However, various non-linear models may be envisaged. In chaotic models, a sensitive dependence exists on model initial conditions and assumptions. Mathematically, the initial conditions of a system, when varied by an exceedingly small amount, can result in widely variable outcomes without a distinguishable pattern.  
      In a chaotic or complex system, repetitive measurements improve the ability to model and predict future conditions. Weather prediction provides a classic example of non-linear systems with “chaotic” or “complex” components. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), a component of the U.S. Department of Commerce gathers data and predicts the weather. Several decades ago, as mainframe computers became available to solve large data set problems, programs to model weather systems began to evolve from improving NOAA&#39;s weather predicting ability. Soon, NOAA discovered that if the input data of the program varied by some exceedingly small amount (e.g., if barometric pressure at some location increased by an un-measurable thousandth of an inch), then the model output differed drastically.  
      Optimizing a non-linear system with a “chaotic” component employs repetitive data sampling where the critical element is the periodicity of the data sampling. The best possible weather predictions, for example, depend on frequent measurements over time. More intensive measurements taken less frequently are not a reliable approach for optimizing weather prediction.  
      Now, a repetitive data sampling system has direct applications to healthcare. For example, one embodiment of the present invention may be used to identify problems associated with the care of a patient diagnosed with congestive heart failure (CHF). CHF is characterized by a heart muscle that cannot pump blood effectively. Patients with CHF generally have difficulty breathing because excess fluids “behind a weakened heart accumulate in the lungs. Care for CHF patients includes medicines such as diuretics to improve breathing by removing excess fluids. With the removal of excess fluids, the patient&#39;s lungs become “clear,” which allows the patient to breathe more normally.  
      Because water is the primary component of the human body, body weight measurements (on an ongoing basis) are an excellent indicator of the clinical status of a patient with CHF. Current care of most CHF patients includes visits to physicians&#39; offices approximately every 3 to 6 months, depending on the severity of symptoms. By monitoring body weight twice a week, hospitalization rate and corresponding costs can be reduced by approximately 50-90%. Thus, cost has been reduced and quality of life has improved. Repetitive clinical monitoring of body weight, for example, twice a week, in CHF patients should be the “standard of care.” 
      Just as weather prediction may be viewed as a chaotic system, so too may prediction of emergency conditions with chronic diseases be considered a chaotic system problem. It should be noted here, however, that the present invention is not limited to applications in CHF, but may have use in applications to other chronic diseases such as, but not limited to, diabetes, asthma, emphysema, cancer, and other cardiovascular diseases known to those skilled in the art.  
      Nonetheless, CHF provides an excellent case for applying the teachings of the present invention, since CHF patients represent the largest disease class and the most commonly hospitalized group of individuals over the age of in the United States. Just as two weather conditions may, in almost all salient aspects, appear virtually identical, two CHF patients may appear much the same on one day, but exhibit drastically different conditions in only a very short span of time. In one example, two CHF patients could “look” clinically identical in two discrete observations having the exact same medical histories, lifestyle, and clinical findings and can be seen, diagnosed and treated at the exact same time in the exact same way. However, these discrete observations lack any historical trends. One cannot accurately predict which patient will progress with an uneventful clinical course and which patient will deteriorate and need intensive care without additional data.  
      This example of two “identical” patients may be considered as analogous to the weather system model in that the two “identical” weather conditions exhibiting two seemingly identical initial conditions (differing barometric pressure by an un-measurable thousandth of an inch). Only repetitive monitoring will cause historical trends to distinguish between patients in many instances.  
      Interestingly, an individual&#39;s body weight provides an easily measured parameter that enables prediction of likely exacerbations and complications in CHF patients. CHF patients have occasional exacerbations that require hospitalization and intensive care. However, a predictable sequence of symptoms and findings precedes the patient&#39;s “decomposition.” CHF patients often begin a pattern of weight gain. This progression of an easily measured parameter provides a window of opportunity for emergency condition prevention in CHF patients. Mitigation of disease exacerbations consists primarily of alerting the patient, and eventually, the healthcare provider team of the weight gain trend. When the healthcare team knows that a CHF patient is gaining weight, the treatment can be changed. For example, incremental doses of diuretics, changes in diet and other measures can very effectively prevent the acute clinical exacerbation.  
      Thus, in chronic disease care, more frequent data inputs can result in earliest detection of clinical exacerbations and complications. In this instance, secondary prevention can address an evolving problem before the problem incapacitates the patient and requires intensive, expensive, and, often times, less successful medical intervention.  
      The present invention, therefore, includes a method and process to support the more frequent collection of relevant chronic disease data, which may avoid the need for such interventions. Referring to  FIG. 2  to understand the present inventions, there appears a flow chart depicts a repetitive, interval, clinical evaluation method  20  consistent with the teachings of the present invention. In step  22 , a patient may be diagnosed with a chronic disease or condition. This disease or chronic condition may have a specific set of disease-associated parameters that may be measured by the healthcare team in a clinical environment or the patient at home.  
      These parameters may be either objective measurements, such as the patient&#39;s weight, as discussed previously, or subjective measurements, as when dealing with other conditions such as mental disease. The patient or healthcare provider in step  24  measures the parameters. These measurements are then compiled by a computer program as part of the patient&#39;s historical record. The instant measurements are evaluated for potential data entry errors or indication of immediate healthcare problems in step  26 . In step  28 , the overall history of measurements is studied to identify statistical or medical indicators of worsening conditions or potential problems. The patient or healthcare team is then alerted at step  30  to potential future problems. This alert allows secondary prevention techniques to be applied to the patient&#39;s condition. This allows the disease condition to be treated in a proactive rather than reactive manner, such as through the application of secondary prevention techniques at step  32 . Furthermore, this allows patient quality of life to increase while reducing healthcare costs. Furthermore, this approach, when taken on a macroscopic scale, can significantly decrease healthcare costs of an individual medical practice, a hospital system or geographical region.  
       FIG. 3  illustrates the flow of one embodiment of a process  40  that a computer may implement as part of the present invention. In step  42 , process  40  starts by downloading a program application, for example, a JAVA applet from a Web server. The JAVA applet may run on a patient&#39;s computer using a JAVA-compatible Web browser, such as Netscape Navigator or Microsoft Internet Explorer. It should be noted that if a second patient desires to also use the system, the program application may be written to accommodate additional patients or, alternatively, the second patient may download the JAVA applet another time, in order, for example, to keep the associated patient information separate.  
      In step  44 , after the JAVA applet is downloaded, the patient initially sets up the system. In step  46 , the  5  process creates a desktop icon.  FIG. 4  illustrates an example of the set up process  50  according to an embodiment of the present invention. So, referring to  FIG. 4 , in step  54 , a first time patient inputs an identifying name. The process then continues to the health parameter  10  statistical control measurement tool. A repeat patient, in step  56 , simply double clicks on a desktop icon to enter the program, and then the process goes, via step  58 , to the health parameter statistical control measurement tool.  
      Referring back to  FIG. 3 , process  40  proceeds to the  15  health parameter statistical control measurement tool at data tracker step  60 . The health parameter statistical control measurement tool receives inputs or parameters associated with a particular patient&#39;s health condition or clinical status. The health parameter statistical control measurement tool will be described in more detail below with respect to  FIGS. 5-9 .  
      In step  62 , process  40  generates a report, which may include a graph covering a desired time frame selected by the patient. In exit system step  64 , the process reaches an endpoint. These steps will be explained in more detail below with respect to  FIGS. 10-12 .  
       FIGS. 5-9  present exemplary screen shots, such as screen shot  70  of  FIG. 5 , to illustrate the steps performed by the health parameter statistical control measurement tool of the present invention. After a patient signs into the system, the system goes to health parameter statistical control measurement tool as indicated by the highlighted “TRACKER” button  72  of screen shot  70  of FIG.  
      The system will be here described in conjunction with an application for a CHF patient, wherein the system tracks the parameter of a CHF patient&#39;s body weight as a way to prevent chronic disease condition exacerbations. Because many other chronic diseases have easily measured parameters highly associated with the patient IS clinical status, the system of this invention can be broadly applied to the care of these diseases as well. Chronic diseases in the United States that may be tracked include, but are not limited to: . asthma, for which peak flow can be measured; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (emphysema), for which flow can be measured; . diabetes, for which glucose can be measured; . other cardiovascular diseases such as arrhythmia, infarction, ischemia, arteriosclerosis for which number of nitroglycerin tablets taken daily, number of chest pain episodes, ambulation distance without pain, minutes walking without pain, etc. can be measured; . rehabilitation, such as from hip and knee replacements, for which ambulation paces/activity can be measured; or . cancer, post chemotherapy/post radiation of toxicity such as food/liquid intake, etc. can be measured.  
      Following a prompt from a computer supporting the present invention&#39;s process, a CHF patient or healthcare worker may enter the patient&#39;s measured body weight or other measured parameters. In the embodiment shown in  FIG. 5 , the patient clicks on number pad  74 , which appears on screen  70  to enter the weight, which appears in display area  76 .  
       FIG. 6  illustrates an example in which the patient entered a weight of  125  in display area  76 . Once the patient enters the weight, the button  78  labeled “Done” may be pressed to continue. It should be noted that in other embodiments, the patient might be asked to confirm the entry. Other methods of data entry, either manual or automated, as known to those skilled in the art, may be  5  used to facilitate the process.  
       FIG. 7  provides the next exemplary screen shot  80  where the patient may confirm that he has completed the weight entry for the day. Next, the process prompts the patient to click on the appropriate tab to continue. As shown, the patient may have several options. For example, the patient may choose to receive a report by clicking on the “REPORTS” icon  82 , information on “WHY THIS MATTERS” by clicking on icon  84 , or exit the system by clicking on the “EXIT” icon  86 .  
      In  FIG. 8 , screen shot  90  indicates that the patient entered a weight of 145 the next time. Once the patient enters the weight, icon  92  labeled “Done” is clicked to continue. It should be noted that in other embodiments, the patient might be asked to confirm the entry.  
       FIG. 9A and 9B  illustrate further exemplary screen shots  100  and  102 , respectively. In  FIG. 9A , the body weight entered of 185 exceeds a control range for the particular patient, causing the system to give the patient an “Alert” report  104 , for example, with the words that “Bill, the weight you entered is a large change from recent entries, we recommend you consider calling your healthcare provider.” Next icon  106  allows the patient to progress to screen  102  of  FIG. 9B .  
      Because the weight of 185 is entered after the initial entry of 125 on the same day,  FIG. 9B  shows a subsequent screen shot with a message  108  stating, for example, that “Bill, you have already entered the following weight for today.” Icons  110  and  112  permit, respectively, the patient to confirm that the entry is correct by clicking “If Correct, Click Here” or to modify by clicking “To Modify, Click Here.” A message  110  guides the patient with the statement that “For best results, try to weigh yourself at about the same time each day, wearing about the same amount of clothing. For instance, in your underwear when you first get up in the morning.” Other steps, as known to those skilled in the art, and messages may be taken to ensure the coherency and integrity of the data collection process.  
      The present invention performs a statistical analysis on the data collected through the above screens using an averaging program and self-comparison of data. The system may use a control range established by the Deming statistical method, or other methodologies as known to those skilled in the art. In one example, when the weight of the patient exceeds about three percent of the control range, the system produces an Alert to the patient.  
      Statistical analyses steps for congestive heart failure may include establishing a base line weight associated with an initial stable condition for the patient. The system will then perform an analysis under consistent guidelines to establish weight data for future measurements. Then, the process will have the patient record his weight data and compare the data to baseline. This will permit a determination of a percentage weight change from the base line. In the preferred embodiment, if the percentage weight change represents a weight greater than a set percentage for the patient, the present invention will generate an alert.  
      These control limits may be based on the individual and the population as a whole. For example, the system may  30  identify a trend of increasing weight for the individual or the fact that the individuals weight has exceeded an accepted value based on the individual&#39;s sex/height and age. Statistical analysis for other disease conditions can be approached in a similar manner. That is, with other diseases a baseline for one or more parameters may be set. Frequent subsequent data may then be collected from the patient relating to or containing measurements of the specific parameters. Statistical changes for parameters then may be established, based in part upon the character of the disease process and the particular details of the patient. The statistical changes that are used to analyze the patient will be dependent upon the disease, the volatility inherent in the data being measured, and other factors as known to those skilled in the art.  
      In  FIG. 10 , exemplary screen shot  120  presents a graphical report that the present invention may provide. As discussed previously, the patient may choose to obtain a report by simply pressing “REPORTS” button  82 . The report may track parameter(s) associated with the patient&#39;s clinical status. In the example shown, a graph of the measured body weight over a specified period of time is provided. The patient may choose the period of time reported, such as ten days, or thirty days, or another time interval.  
      In  FIG. 11 , screen shot  122 , explains the importance of tracking those parameter(s) to the patient. The patient may obtain more information on the significance of the tracking of the parameters by simply pressing “WHY THIS MATTERS” button  124 . Exemplary screen shot  122  explains the importance of tracking weight in CHF patients and prompts the patient to call a physician or healthcare provider if the records indicate that his body weight is increasing. In another embodiment, the system may send an alert to the patient&#39;s healthcare team to initiate the process where the healthcare team then contacts the patient to schedule a physical examination.  
      In  FIG. 12 , exemplary screen shot  130  appears when the patient desires to exit the system. Screen shot  130  provides a disclaimer or warning to the patient in window  132  that the program does not replace medical care. The patient then exits the system by clicking “EXIT” icon  134 , or may return to system operations by clicking “BACK” icon  136 .  
      In another embodiment, the present invention takes information from a remotely located patient for statistical and medical analysis. The system then determines whether or not that information indicates a worsening medical condition that may require intervention by a healthcare professional. Instead of treating the medical condition from a remote location by using computers and the Internet with conventional schemes, the present invention informs that patient and/or healthcare team of the fact that there may be cause for additional review of the patient. This intervention is based upon the results of statistical or medical analysis of one or more pre-selected parameters associated with a diagnosed condition. As a result of this notification, the system encourages, or may actually schedule, the patient to visit a physician or other health care professional, rather than attempting to avoid office visits. As a result, the patient may receive more prompt and, perhaps, more effective, less intensive medical attention.  
       FIGS. 13 and 14  illustrate one embodiment of the statistical or medical analysis step  16  of  FIG. 2  performed by the present invention. Through the analysis of a patient&#39;s condition, the present invention determines whether a violation has occurred of one or more rules that would give rise to an early-stage alert condition, as stated with reference to step  18  of  FIG. 2 .  
      In essence, the calculations of the present embodiment may be understood with reference to spreadsheet  140 , which shows two exemplary rules for which the present embodiment may test. Clearly, although the rules here stated relate to a CHF patient, similar or different rules could be established and tested consistent with the scope and purposes of the present invention.  
      A first rule, then, for which spreadsheet  140  tests has to do with a patient&#39;s weight gain from one day to another. Rule 1 tests the deviation in daily weight against a minimum and a maximum weight gain. The minimum weight for which the system generates first alert is three pounds change in body weight. This amount may be based on such sources as the medical or scientific literature relating to the patient&#39;s condition. The maximum weight gain in this instance is five pounds, again, here based on the particular patient&#39;s condition and relevant scientific or medical literature. Rule 1 further calculates, using a value here called sigma. The value of sigma changes according to the patient&#39;s average weight over twenty consecutive measurements. From the sigma value a critical difference value of 2.88 times the square root of 2, which product is further multiplied by the relevant value of sigma value at the time of the patient weight measurement to yield a test value.  
      By initializing the below-described sigma at 0.98, an initial critical difference of 4.0 pounds over a one-day interval, for example, results. Thus, in the event of a weight change or 4.0 pounds, the present invention will transmit an alert to the patient.  
      A second rule for which this instance of the present embodiment tests in deviations in daily weight is also based on a moving or rolling twenty-weight measurement set. Such a set of measurements may be obtained, for example, through twenty days of continual daily weight measurements. Under this second rule, the present invention determines whether a minimum difference of two pounds is measured. No upper limit pertains to this second rule. The process derives a critical difference as a rolling average of twenty measurements, but here using a seven-measurement lag—and three times the moving sigma, based on twenty prior measurements, as specified in detail below.  
      For purposes of the present embodiment and in the case of CHF, the seven-measurement lag may represent, for 5 example, the set of twenty measurements where the most recent measurement occurred seven days ago and the least recent occurred twenty-seven days ago, with daily measurements occurring each of the intervening days.  
      In another embodiment, a different set of measurements might be more appropriate to take than the twenty measurements and seven-day lag used in the CHF case. Different diseases may develop acute exacerbations over varying amounts of time. It is important to exclude the timeframe of the evolving change from the baseline  15  measurements. For example, in diabetic ketoacidosis, the time of evolving symptoms might be three days. So, in that example, it would be best to exclude the past three days measurements from the baseline data. This would have the effect of assuring the most effective early warning. In other words, data arising during the evolution of the exacerbation will not contribute to an artificially elevating baseline. With more particular reference to spread sheet  140  of  FIG. 13A -B and to further explain the application of the two rules mentioned above, notice that there appears. Information, including the date of a patient&#39;s weight measurement of column  142  and the location of which the weight measurement occurred of column  144 . For the exemplary patient “Bill Price,” the weight measurements (e.g., 156 pounds taken at Dr. Minor&#39;s office on Nov. 29, 1999) appear on column  146 . Column  148  shows the results of a rolling twenty-day average of patient Bill Price&#39;s weights (e.g., a weight of 165.375 calculated on Oct. 1, 2002). In Column  150  appears a further set of data which includes a rolling twenty-day average of patient Bill Price&#39;s weight, but measured with a twenty-day lag.  
      That is, the data represents for the current day that information for which the most recent of the twenty days occurs twenty days prior. A daily difference of measurements appears at column  152 , followed by a scalar number, in column  154 , representing the magnitude of the difference of the current day&#39;s measurement from the lagged twenty-day measurement from column  150 . Column  156  calculates the average of up to the prior twenty-days measurements of the absolute value measurements appearing in column  154 . The values for column  158  derive from the rules, and have the column title UCLmt, depicting a limit calculation based on the value of 3.27 times the MrBar value. Column  160  presents the number MR, as from column  154 , but here revised according to comparison of if the MR value is greater than the UCLmt value, then the column  160  value is given as the MrBar value. Otherwise, the process uses the MR value for its further calculations. After twenty measurements, column  162  presents a further revised MrBar value, similar to that derived in column  156  and revised as the average of the past twenty values of Revised MR of column  160 . These cumulative calculations derive the above-mentioned sigma value as the corresponding value of the Revised MR divided by 1.128, which column  164  contains. Then, based on the existing sigma value, the calculated value of the above-mentioned formula of 2.88 times the square root of 2 further multiplied by the sigma value of column  164  appears in column  166  as the critical value to be tested against. The rule one minimum appearing in column  168  is the greater of 3 or the critical difference value in column  166 . Column  170  shows the determined value for weight according to the first rule limit. This value ranges from three to five pounds.  
      At column  172 , a weight measurement moving average is taken for use in further calculations. Column  174  shows the results of a calculation for the moving average maximum variation from the moving average. In column  176  appears the critical difference calculation for the measurements against the rule two limits. The results of passing or failing the boundaries of rules one and two are shown in columns  178  and  180 , respectively.  
      As should be clear from the above, the particular values for the rules and the number of rules may change depending on the particular chronic disease and the associated parameters for the disease for which early detection proves beneficial. Nonetheless, the clear import of the above description is that the present invention, through a potentially wide variety of embodiments provides a system and method of modeling chronic disease using a non-linear model together with a set of optimization routines to reduce healthcare costs and improve quality at the same time.  
      For many chronic conditions, the worsening of a patient&#39;s health does not follow a predictive model, and standardized therapies based upon broad demographic models are not suitable. These conditions make it difficult to treat some types of chronic diseases remotely.  
      In general, certain parameters are associated with certain types of chronic diseases. For example, a patient&#39;s weight is generally associated with congestive heart failure, whereas peak flow is generally associated with asthma. Glucose is generally associated with diabetes, whereas mood and depression charts are generally associated with mental health problems.  
      In an embodiment, statistical models that have been applied to chaotic systems, such as to weather forecasting by NOAA, are applied to one or more selected parameters of the patient associated with a chronic disease to determine the probability of worsening medical condition of the patient. By alerting the patient or their healthcare providers of the potentially worsening medical condition, the condition may be diagnosed, treated and managed early on by a healthcare professional, thereby avoiding more catastrophic and costly medical intervention later where the potential outcomes are not as favorable.  
      The methods and apparatus of the present invention, or certain aspects or portions thereof, taken the form of program code (i.e., instructions) embodied in tangible media, such as floppy diskettes, CD-ROMS, hard drives, or any other machine-readable storage medium, wherein, when the program code is loaded into and executed by a machine, such as a computer, the machine becomes an apparatus for practicing the invention. The methods and apparatus of the present invention may also embody the form of program code transmitted over some transmission medium, such as over electrical wiring or cabling, through fiber optics, or via any other form of transmission, as known to those skilled in the art, wherein, when the program code is received and loaded into and executed by a machine such as a computer, the machine becomes an apparatus for practicing the invention. When implemented on a general-purpose processor, the program code combines with the processor to provide a unique apparatus that operates analogously to specific logic circuits.  
       FIG. 14  illustrates a typical computer system including traditional components of a personal computer. The present invention can have components similar to those  
      shown, and furthermore, through accessing the Internet, the system may interact and interface with components on larger computer similar to examples illustrated in  FIG. 14 .  
      A general-purpose workstation computer  190  comprises a processor  192  having an input/output (“I/O”) section  194 , a central processing unit (“CPU”)  196  and a memory section  198 . The r/o section  194  is couples to keyboard  200 , display unit  202 , disk storage unit  202  and CD-ROM drive unit  204 . The CD unit  204  can read CD-ROM medium  206  that typically contains programs and data  208 . The disk storage unit can be, or is connected to, a database or network server  210 . The connection can be via a modem or other digital communication devices, such as wireless receiver and transmission components as used in PDAs and wireless communication devices known to one or ordinary skill in the art. The database server and network server  210  can be the same advice or two separate but coupled devices. Computer  190  may be a network appliance, personal computer, desktop computer, laptop computer, top box, web access device (such as WEBTVO (Microsoft Corporation, or any like device. Use of computers also contemplates other devices similar to or incorporating computers, such as personal computers, television interfaces, kiosks, and the like.  
      Embodiments of the present invention may be implemented in a standalone system, entirely on the patients computer hard drive so that there are no privacy or security concerns. The method according to embodiments of the present invention does not necessarily need a computer at all. A person may use a telephone, a personal digital assistant (PDA), or other means to record the data measurements described above. The patient also could be alerted by telephone, or such other means.  
      The present invention provides a computer-implemented method of impeding a progression of a disease condition or tracking the rehabilitation of a patent in order to reduce healthcare costs and improve patient quality of life. To accomplish this, a set of disease or condition-associated parameters is defined. These disease-associated parameters may be unique to a specific diagnosed disease such as, but not limited to: congestive heart failure, diabetes, asthma, emphysema, cancer, infarction, ischemia, arteriosclerosis, toxicity, mental disease, depression or arrhythmia. These parameters include but are not limited to: body weight, peak flow, glucose, number of nitroglycerin tablets taken, number of chest pain episodes, minutes walking without pain, ambulation distance without pain, number of emesis, number of episodes of diarrhea, mood charts, depression charts, and food/liquid intake.  
      Once a patient has been diagnosed with a specific disease condition, a series of repetitive measurements on a set of disease-associated parameters associated with the patient&#39;s diagnosed disease are collected on a frequent basis. The data may either be automatically entered or manually entered into the computer system shown in  FIG. 13A -B. For example, as previously discussed, the patient may enter their body weight through a patient interface presented on the computers display, via keyboard  200 , or through a data collection device, such as a scale, directly coupled to I/O interface  194 . This illustrates an objective measurement. However, some measurements, such as those associated with mental disease, may rely on subjective measurements taken by the patient or health care provider.  
      This data may first be evaluated to eliminate data entry errors or health problems indicated by that single data point. Next, the computer, either locally or remotely, may perform a series of analyses to identify potential future problems that may require medical intervention. By early identification of these potential problems, the patient or their healthcare provider may apply-secondary prevention techniques to address or reduce the risk of these potential future problems. The failure to identify and take secondary prevention actions in many cases accounts for the “quality valley”  14  shown in  FIG. 1B  that is associated with increased medical costs and reduced outcomes. Early identification, and proactive measures helps to reduce medical costs and increase the likely of favorable outcomes, or impeded the progression of a disease. The failure to address these potential problems  5  will often result in later more invasive medical intervention with less favorable outcomes. This condition often accounts for “quality valley”  14 . The statistical or medical analysis performed on the data may compare the data to predetermined control limits,  10  trend analysis, tests for special cases, such as the Western Electric Rules, or other such analyses as are known to those skilled in the art.  
      The present invention may be implemented by a computer program executed within a computer, such as a personal computer, personal data assistant, network appliance, web access device, computer kiosks, television interfaces or like device. The program may comprise instructions that enable to processor to perform the tasks of: (1) collecting and evaluating the repetitive measurements supplied by the patient or healthcare provider; (2) performing statistical analysis on a series or history of repetitive measurements; and (3) alerting the patient or health care provider to those analyses which indicate a potential future problem. These steps allow the patient and/or healthcare team to apply secondary prevention techniques that address the potential future problem. Thus, allowing the patient to enjoy a more favorable outcome and reduced health care expense.  
      In one embodiment, a computer performs the process of collecting clinical parameters, processing, data alerts, and subsequent data. Another embodiment uses and automated telephone system coupled to a computer system. In such a system, a patient “signs up” for the service and receives a password. As part of the sign-up process, the patient&#39;s disease, home phone number and preferred call times are submitted. The automated system then calls the patient on a predetermined schedule. A computer-generated voice asks for the patient&#39;s password, and then prompts entry of the patient&#39;s data. For example, in the case of congestive heart failure, the collected data is body weight. The automated system verifies the integrity of the data and ends the phone call. An “alert” advises the patient of an abnormal reading, and may transfer the patient directly and automatically to a physician&#39;s office, answering service, or other requested number. The automated system may also automatically re-call the patient to confirm understanding of the alert. Such a system may use voice recognition and synthesis in all or part as the patient interfaces. Similarly, other information transactions can be accomplished on various wireless and PDA-type devices.  
      From the above description of the invention it is manifest that various equivalents can be used to implement the concepts of the present invention without departing from its scope. Moreover, while the invention has been described with specific reference to certain embodiments, a person of ordinary skill in the art would recognize that changes could be made in form detail without departing from the spirit and the scope of the invention. The described embodiments are to be considered in all respects as illustrative and restrictive. It should also be understood that the invention is not limited to the particular embodiments described herein, but is capable of many equivalents rearrangements modifications, and substitutions without departing from the scope of the invention.