Daily Papers

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

This paper establishes a mathematical foundation for the Adam optimizer, elucidating its connection to natural gradient descent through Riemannian and information geometry. We rigorously analyze the diagonal empirical Fisher information matrix (FIM) in Adam, clarifying all detailed approximations and advocating for the use of log probability functions as loss, which should be based on discrete distributions, due to the limitations of empirical FIM. Our analysis uncovers flaws in the original Adam algorithm, leading to proposed corrections such as enhanced momentum calculations, adjusted bias corrections, and gradient clipping. We refine the weight decay term based on our theoretical framework. Our modified algorithm, Fisher Adam (FAdam), demonstrates superior performance across diverse domains including LLM, ASR, and VQ-VAE, achieving state-of-the-art results in ASR.

Since their introduction, diffusion models have quickly become the prevailing approach to generative modeling in many domains. They can be interpreted as learning the gradients of a time-varying sequence of log-probability density functions. This interpretation has motivated classifier-based and classifier-free guidance as methods for post-hoc control of diffusion models. In this work, we build upon these ideas using the score-based interpretation of diffusion models, and explore alternative ways to condition, modify, and reuse diffusion models for tasks involving compositional generation and guidance. In particular, we investigate why certain types of composition fail using current techniques and present a number of solutions. We conclude that the sampler (not the model) is responsible for this failure and propose new samplers, inspired by MCMC, which enable successful compositional generation. Further, we propose an energy-based parameterization of diffusion models which enables the use of new compositional operators and more sophisticated, Metropolis-corrected samplers. Intriguingly we find these samplers lead to notable improvements in compositional generation across a wide set of problems such as classifier-guided ImageNet modeling and compositional text-to-image generation.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

Predicting properties of complex, large-scale quantum systems is essential for developing quantum technologies. We present an efficient method for constructing an approximate classical description of a quantum state using very few measurements of the state. This description, called a classical shadow, can be used to predict many different properties: order log M measurements suffice to accurately predict M different functions of the state with high success probability. The number of measurements is independent of the system size, and saturates information-theoretic lower bounds. Moreover, target properties to predict can be selected after the measurements are completed. We support our theoretical findings with extensive numerical experiments. We apply classical shadows to predict quantum fidelities, entanglement entropies, two-point correlation functions, expectation values of local observables, and the energy variance of many-body local Hamiltonians. The numerical results highlight the advantages of classical shadows relative to previously known methods.

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are among the most widely and successfully applied optimizers for multi-objective problems. However, to store many optimal trade-offs (the Pareto optima) at once, MOEAs are typically run with a large, static population of solution candidates, which can slow down the algorithm. We propose the dynamic NSGA-II (dNSGA-II), which is based on the popular NSGA-II and features a non-static population size. The dNSGA-II starts with a small initial population size of four and doubles it after a user-specified number tau of function evaluations, up to a maximum size of mu. Via a mathematical runtime analysis, we prove that the dNSGA-II with parameters mu geq 4(n + 1) and tau geq 256{50} e n computes the full Pareto front of the OneMinMax benchmark of size n in O(log(mu) tau + mu log(n)) function evaluations, both in expectation and with high probability. For an optimal choice of mu and tau, the resulting O(n log(n)) runtime improves the optimal expected runtime of the classic NSGA-II by a factor of Theta(n). In addition, we show that the parameter tau can be removed when utilizing concurrent runs of the dNSGA-II. This approach leads to a mild slow-down by a factor of O(log(n)) compared to an optimal choice of tau for the dNSGA-II, which is still a speed-up of Theta(n / log(n)) over the classic NSGA-II.