Court Opinion

ID: 9378815
Source: CourtListenerOpinion
Date Created: 2023-03-13 18:00:40.420271+00
Date Added: 2024-06-11T17:16:07.287204
License: Public Domain

Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023    Page: 1
                                                                                   FILED
                                                                       United States Court of Appeals
                      UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                           Tenth Circuit

                              FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                          March 13, 2023
                          _________________________________
                                                                          Christopher M. Wolpert
                                                                              Clerk of Court
  GERARDO CABALLERO-VEGA,

        Petitioner,

  v.                                                          No. 21-9506
                                                          (Petition for Review)
  MERRICK B. GARLAND, United States
  Attorney General,

        Respondent.
                          _________________________________

                              ORDER AND JUDGMENT*
                          _________________________________

 Before HOLMES, Chief Judge, and EBEL and EID, Circuit Judges.**
                    _________________________________

       Gerardo Caballero-Vega,1 a Mexican citizen, entered the United States in 1993

 without admission or parole by an immigration officer when he was eight years old.

 He was removed to Mexico in 2019. Shortly after his removal, Caballero-Vega

       *
          This order and judgment is not binding precedent, except under the doctrines
 of law of the case, res judicata, and collateral estoppel. It may be cited, however, for
 its persuasive value consistent with Fed. R. App. P. 32.1 and 10th Cir. R. 32.1.
        **
           After examining the briefs and appellate record, this panel has determined
 unanimously to honor the parties’ request for a decision on the briefs without oral
 argument. See Fed. R. App. P. 34(f); 10th Cir. R. 34.1(G). The case is therefore
 submitted without oral argument.
        1
          Caballero-Vega’s last name is often misspelled as “Cabellero-Vega”
 throughout this litigation, including in the caption on appeal. We use the correct
 spelling in this order and judgment and direct the Clerk’s Office to correct the case
 caption as well.
Appellate Case: 21-9506      Document: 010110825418     Date Filed: 03/13/2023    Page: 2

 returned to the United States and applied for asylum, withholding of removal, and

 protection under the Convention Against Torture. Later that year, the Immigration

 Judge (“IJ”) granted his application for asylum, which the Department of Homeland

 Security (“DHS”) appealed to the Board of Immigration Appeals (“the BIA”). In

 2020, the BIA vacated the IJ’s decision for clear error and ordered Caballero-Vega’s

 removal to Mexico. The following year, Caballero-Vega filed a petition for review in

 this court. We reverse the BIA’s vacation of the IJ’s decision and remand the case

 for further review.

                                               I.

       Eight years after Caballero-Vega entered the United States, the San Francisco

 Immigration Court granted him the opportunity to depart the country voluntarily by

 2005. However, Caballero-Vega remained in the United States, and the grant became

 a final order of removal.

       Caballero-Vega became a criminal informant for the San Mateo County

 District Attorney in 2012. He reported to law enforcement on the drug, firearm, and

 human trafficking conducted by Nuestra Familia, a California prison gang, as well as

 the Norteño Gang, Nuestra Familia’s “foot soldiers” in the streets. R. Vol. I at 143.

 Following his informant work, he testified against Nuestra Familia members in

 criminal court. Caballero-Vega was placed in a witness protection program during

 and after his testimony.

       In January 2019, following his arrest in Colorado, Caballero-Vega was taken

 into immigration custody and removed to Mexico. On the day of his arrival, eight

                                           2
Appellate Case: 21-9506     Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 3

 armed men dressed in military clothing bearing the initials of the Cartel Jalisco

 Nueva Generación cartel (“CJNG”) approached him in the street. They “demanded

 [his] identification paperwork, took pictures of his repatriation certificate,

 and . . . told [him] they would be back for him in the morning.” Id. at 72. Caballero-

 Vega escaped and took a bus to Tijuana, Mexico, where he was again approached by

 eight men dressed in CJNG clothing. They “pushed [him] to the wall, asked who he

 was, and whether he was seeking asylum in the United States,” before taking pictures

 of his repatriation certificate. Id. at 73. However, Caballero-Vega was able to

 escape again.

       Caballero-Vega reentered the United States two months after leaving,

 presenting himself at a port of entry to apply for asylum, withholding of removal, and

 protection under the Convention Against Torture. Caballero-Vega alleged past

 persecution and a well-founded fear of persecution on account of his membership in

 particular social groups consisting of “informants who have testified in court against

 gangs” and “witnesses who have testified against gangs and come to the attention of

 the group they testified against.” Id. at 3 (quotation marks omitted).

       On November 13, 2019, the IJ granted Caballero-Vega’s application for

 asylum, finding that he had established a well-founded fear of future persecution

 based on his membership in the group of “informants who have testified in court

 against gangs.” Id. at 90. In reaching that conclusion, the IJ determined that “the

 evidence of the cooperation between the Norteño gang and Mexican cartels [is]

                                             3
Appellate Case: 21-9506     Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 4

 sufficient to establish the gang and cartel would be motivated to harm [Caballero-

 Vega] on account of being an informant and witness.” Id. at 93.

         DHS appealed the decision to the BIA. On December 15, 2020, the BIA

 sustained DHS’s appeal, vacated the IJ’s grant of Caballero-Vega’s asylum, and

 ordered Caballero-Vega’s removal to Mexico. Specifically, the BIA found that there

 was “clear error in the [IJ]’s finding that there’s a reasonable possibility that

 [Caballero-Vega’s] 2012 status as an informant and his 2013 or 2014 United States

 testimony against United States gang members will be a central reason for possible

 future harm to [him] upon removal to Mexico.” Id. at 4. The BIA maintained that

 “the [IJ’s] findings are speculative that [Caballero-Vega]—who was not threatened or

 harmed in the roughly seven years following his time as an informant and after

 having given testimony against United States gang members—would be persecuted

 by Mexican cartel members because he was an informant who testified against

 United States gang members.” Id.

         Caballero-Vega timely filed a petition for review in this court on January 14,

 2021.

                                             II.

         We review the BIA’s “legal determinations de novo, and its findings of fact

 under a substantial-evidence standard.” Niang v. Gonzalez, 422 F.3d 1187, 1196

 (10th Cir. 2005) (citation omitted). Pursuant to 8 C.F.R. § 1003.1(d)(3)(i), the BIA

 may not engage in “de novo review of findings of fact determined by an [IJ],” but

 must review facts determined by the IJ for clear error. We have determined that

                                             4
Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023    Page: 5

 under the “rare circumstance[] . . . where an IJ makes factual credibility

 determinations which the BIA in turn rejects,” we consider “de novo whether the

 BIA, in making its own factual findings, actually reviewed the IJ’s decision only for

 clear error.” Kabba v. Mukasey, 530 F.3d 1239, 1245 (10th Cir. 2008).

                                           III.

       As a threshold matter, we first address the government’s argument that we may

 not review Caballero-Vega’s claim that the BIA exceeded the scope of its authority

 because he failed to initially present this claim to the BIA. The government provides

 scarce support for or explanation of this contention. We understand the government

 to be arguing that, on appeal, Caballero-Vega has challenged the standard of review

 actually applied by the BIA and, because he never presented this issue in a petition

 for rehearing or request for reconsideration with the BIA, it has not been preserved

 for our review.

       We acknowledge that “[t]he failure to raise an issue on appeal to the BIA

 constitutes failure to exhaust administrative remedies with respect to that question

 and deprives the Court of Appeals of jurisdiction to hear the matter.” Rivera-Zurita

 v. I.N.S., 946 F.2d 118, 120 n.2 (10th Cir. 1991). Indeed, as we have previously held,

 the exhaustion requirement is derived from “a fundamental principle of

 administrative law that an agency must have the opportunity to rule on a challenger’s

 arguments before the challenger may bring those arguments to court.” Garcia-

 Carbajal v. Holder, 625 F.3d 1233, 1237 (10th Cir. 2010).

                                            5
Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023        Page: 6

       The government cites Sidabutar v. Gonzales to support its argument that

 Caballero-Vega’s failure to raise his claim to the BIA about the scope of its authority

 renders that claim unreviewable before us. See Resp’t Br. at 34 (citing Sidabutar v.

 Gonzales, 503 F.3d 1116, 1122 (10th Cir. 2007) (holding petitioner’s claim that the

 BIA exceeded scope of appellate review “should have been brought before the BIA in

 the first instance through a motion to reconsider or reopen” and, because it wasn’t,

 “the petitioners[] failed to exhaust administrative remedies” on it)). Although the

 government’s characterization of Sidabutar is accurate, its application of Sidabutar

 to this case is not. Sidabutar’s appeal to the BIA challenged the IJ’s finding that he

 was “ineligible for asylum based on [his] failure to comply with the application’s

 one-year filing deadline.” Sidabutar, 503 F.3d at 1119. But, before this Court, he

 argued that the BIA had “improperly engaged in de novo factfinding in concluding

 [that he] did not suffer ‘past persecution’ for purposes of seeking a restriction on

 removal.” Id. at 1118. As Caballero-Vega correctly notes, whereas Sidabutar

 provided the BIA “no opportunity to address” the issue of its alleged de novo

 factfinding, Reply Br. at 2, he “has advanced the same legal theory throughout these

 proceedings,” id. at 3.

       Before the BIA, Caballero-Vega contended that the IJ’s factual findings “are

 not ‘clearly erroneous’ simply because . . . [DHS] endorses a different view of the

 evidence.” R. Vol. I at 11 (citations omitted). On appeal, his argument is the same:

 “Did the [BIA] . . . correctly apply the clear error standard where it reversed the

 Immigration Court’s nexus finding because the [BIA] endorsed a different

                                             6
Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 7

 interpretation of the evidence in the record?” Pet. Br. at 11. Caballero-Vega accuses

 the BIA of having “engaged in de novo reweighing of the evidence,” id. at 17, but he

 has presented this as a criticism of the BIA’s clear-error analysis, not an allegation

 that the wrong standard of review was used.

       If Caballero-Vega were arguing that the BIA applied de novo review where

 only clear-error review was appropriate, our case law indicates he would have had to

 raise that issue to the BIA before we could hear it. However, Caballero-Vega is not

 alleging that the BIA used the wrong standard, but rather, that it wrongly concluded

 that the IJ clearly erred when it found that Caballero-Vega would face a reasonable

 possibility of future harm if he were removed to Mexico. Caballero-Vega’s reference

 to “de novo reweighing” provides an example of what he views as the BIA’s

 misapplication of the clear-error standard; it is not an assertion that the BIA applied a

 new and erroneous standard of review. See Kabba, 530 F.3d at 1244 (reviewing

 petitioner’s argument that the BIA “committed legal error by analyzing the IJ’s

 credibility determination de novo, rather than under the required clearly erroneous

 standard” without requiring a petition for rehearing or request for reconsideration).

 His brief clearly asserts the former argument. See, e.g., Pet. Br. at 16–21

 (analogizing to a Supreme Court case about whether a circuit court “properly applied

 the clearly erroneous standard of review to a petitioner’s sex discrimination claim”).

 Caballero-Vega’s argument that the BIA reached an erroneous conclusion using the

 clear-error standard of review was made before the BIA and need not have been

                                             7
Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418         Date Filed: 03/13/2023    Page: 8

 presented in a petition for rehearing or request for reconsideration for us to hear it on

 appeal.2

                                                 IV.

       Having established that we may properly review Caballero-Vega’s claim that

 the BIA exceeded the scope of its authority, we now consider the merits of the claim.

 Because Caballero-Vega claims that the BIA improperly rejected the IJ’s factual

 findings, we review the BIA’s decision de novo. See Kabba, 530 F.3d at 1245. This

 means that we must evaluate whether the BIA has sufficiently justified its finding

 that the IJ’s decision is clearly erroneous. See id. at 1245–49 (reviewing the BIA’s

       2
          The dissent argues that Caballero-Vega “never gave the BIA an opportunity
 to address” his claim that it incorrectly concluded that the IJ’s factual findings were
 clearly erroneous; as a result, this Court lacks jurisdiction to consider Caballero-
 Vega’s claim. Diss. op. at 1. However, there is a key distinction between this case
 and those cited by the dissent in which this Court found that it did not have
 jurisdiction because of a failure to exhaust administrative remedies. In this case,
 Caballero-Vega presented the same legal theory before the BIA that he makes before
 this Court—that the IJ’s factual findings were not clearly erroneous. That is not true
 of the relevant cases the dissent cites. See Garcia-Carbajal, 625 F.3d at 1237–38
 (“The only question [Garcia-Carbajal] presented for decision to the BIA was whether
 the immigration judge ‘failed to engage in the [two step] analysis described in the
 BIA decision in Silva-Trevino.’ . . . Before us, he has abandoned this particular legal
 theory entirely. Instead of challenging the process by which his case was analyzed,
 he now seeks to challenge the substance of the results it reached.” (emphasis in
 original) (citation omitted)); Sidabutar, 503 F.3d at 1118, 1122 (“On appeal to the
 BIA, Sidabutar . . . argued that the IJ erred in concluding [he was] ineligible for
 asylum based on [his] failure to comply with the application’s one-year filing
 deadline,” but before this Court, Sidabutar made a “procedural challenge to the
 BIA’s . . . finding that he failed to establish (1) past persecution, and (2) the
 unreasonableness of relocation to another part of Indonesia where the IJ made no
 such finding in the first instance.” (internal quotation marks omitted)). The dissent
 would have Caballero-Vega ask the BIA to decide whether it conducted its own
 clear-error review correctly, but that is not required by Sidabutar or Garcia-
 Carbajal.
                                             8
Appellate Case: 21-9506    Document: 010110825418         Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 9

 justifications for its finding and concluding that those justifications were clearly

 erroneous); see also Wu Lin v. Lynch, 813 F.3d 122, 129 (2d Cir. 2016) (“[D]e novo

 review does not mean that we can redetermine de novo whether we think the IJ has

 committed clear error. It means that we must determine whether the BIA has

 provided sufficient justification for its conclusion that the IJ has committed clear

 error. It also means that we must make sure that the BIA has not violated the

 prohibition against making its own findings of fact.”)

       Under 8 U.S.C. § 1158(b)(1), the Attorney General has the discretion to grant

 asylum to “refugees.” A “refugee” includes a noncitizen who is “unable or unwilling

 to return to” his country “because of . . . a well-founded fear of persecution on

 account of . . . membership in a particular social group.” Id. § 1101(a)(42)(A).

 “[P]ersecution may be inflicted by the government itself, or by a non-governmental

 group that ‘the government is unwilling or unable to control.’” Wiransane v.

 Ashcroft, 366 F.3d 889, 893 (10th Cir. 2004) (citation omitted).

       For a fear of persecution to be well-founded, there must be “‘a reasonable

 possibility’ that the alien would be persecuted upon removal to his country of

 nationality.” Jin Bin Wu v. Holder, 481 F. App’x 427, 429 (10th Cir. 2012)

 (unpublished)3 (quoting 8 C.F.R. § 1208.13(b)(1)). Even a ten percent chance of

 being persecuted may be sufficient to satisfy this standard. See I.N.S. v. Cardoza-

 Fonseca, 480 U.S. 421, 440 (1987). However, because the well-founded fear of

       3
         “Unpublished decisions are not precedential, but may be cited for their
 persuasive value.” 10th Cir. R. 32.1 (2023).
                                             9
Appellate Case: 21-9506     Document: 010110825418        Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 10

  persecution must be “on account of” membership in a particular social group, a

  petitioner must show the nexus between the harm the petitioner fears and his

  particular social group. 8 U.S.C. § 1101(a)(42)(A). Whether such a nexus exists is a

  question of fact.

        The IJ’s analysis of the nexus between the harm Caballero-Vega fears and his

  particular social group is based on a substantial amount of evidence, including: a

  phone call from the Norteño gang members’ attorney telling Caballero-Vega that “he

  had placed the . . . leaders of the Norteño gang . . . in a large amount of trouble,” R.

  Vol. I at 92; the testimony of a former Senior Inspector with the San Mateo County

  District Attorney, who explained that Caballero-Vega “is still at risk from retaliation

  from . . . the Norteño gang as a whole,” id.; opinions from U.S. law enforcement

  officials and gang experts indicating that “Mexican cartels . . . cooperate[] with the

  Norteño gang in exchanging intelligence, controlled substances, and weapons,” id.;

  an official report from the California Attorney General finding that “California has

  seen increasing partnerships between transnational cartels and prison gangs,” id. at

  92–93; opinions from experts who “have classified th[e] cooperation between the

  cartels and American gangs as part of a criminal organization that all agree to help

  each other,” and have further indicated that this cooperation “does not stop at simply

  the exchange of information,” id. at 93; and “evidence that cartels beat and killed

  individuals associated with witnesses or cooperators with the government . . . [and]

  the Mexican government did next to nothing to investigate the crimes,” id. (internal

  quotation marks and citations omitted). Based on this evidence, the IJ concluded that

                                             10
Appellate Case: 21-9506     Document: 010110825418         Date Filed: 03/13/2023     Page: 11

  it was reasonable for Caballero-Vega to fear that Mexican cartels would harm him if

  they discovered he had testified against Norteño gang members. See id.

         The BIA’s review of the IJ’s nexus finding is not substantiated nearly as well.

  The BIA notes that Caballero-Vega was not threatened or harmed when he was

  stopped in Mexico. See id. at 4. It observes that Caballero-Vega was also not

  “threatened or harmed in the roughly seven years following his time as an informant

  and after having given testimony against United States gang members.” Id. Finally,

  it reasons that the IJ’s “findings are speculative that [Caballero-Vega] . . . would be

  persecuted by Mexican cartel members because he was an informant who testified

  against United States gang members.” Id.

         We find insufficient the BIA’s explanation for its finding that the IJ’s decision

  is clearly erroneous. The fact that Caballero-Vega was not persecuted in Mexico is

  of little-to-no probative value here because he escaped before he could be identified

  by cartel members. Likewise, the fact that he was not threatened or harmed in the

  United States following his time as an informant is unhelpful because he was in

  witness protection for that entire period. Finally, the expert testimony cited by the IJ

  demonstrates that Mexican cartel members and United States gang members

  cooperate extensively, so the fact that Caballero-Vega testified against individuals

  based in the United States, not Mexico, is not dispositive. Thus, none of the reasons

  the BIA offers for vacating the IJ’s decision justifies the BIA’s finding of clear error.

         We remand Caballero-Vega’s case to the BIA to accept the IJ’s decision or to

  provide further justification for its finding that the IJ’s decision is clearly erroneous.

                                              11
Appellate Case: 21-9506   Document: 010110825418    Date Filed: 03/13/2023   Page: 12

                                        V.

        For the foregoing reasons, we REVERSE the judgment of the BIA of

  Immigration Appeals and REMAND for further proceedings consistent with this

  opinion.

                                             Entered for the Court

                                             Allison H. Eid
                                             Circuit Judge

                                        12
Appellate Case: 21-9506       Document: 010110825418         Date Filed: 03/13/2023       Page: 13

  21-9506, Caballero-Vega v. Garland
  HOLMES, C.J., Dissenting.

         I respectfully dissent. Even if we assume—as the majority would have it—that

  Petitioner’s argument complaining about the BIA’s alleged de novo reweighing of the

  evidence amounts to no more than an attack on the BIA’s application of the clear-error

  standard, rather than an argument that the BIA erred by applying a different standard of

  review altogether (i.e., de novo review), see Maj. Op. at 7, it is plain that Petitioner never

  gave the BIA an opportunity to address this attack, upon which he relies in seeking

  reversal. Contrary to the suggestion of the majority in footnote 2, Petitioner did have an

  obligation to give the BIA this opportunity—even if it meant filing a motion to reconsider

  or reopen. And, accordingly, he has failed to exhaust this argument, and we lack

  jurisdiction to consider it. See Garcia-Carbajal v. Holder, 625 F.3d 1233, 1237 (10th

  Cir. 2010) (“It is a fundamental principle of administrative law that an agency must have

  the opportunity to rule on a challenger’s arguments before the challenger may bring those

  arguments to court.”); Rivera-Zurita v. I.N.S., 946 F.2d 118, 120 n.2 (10th Cir. 1991)

  (“The failure to raise an issue on appeal to the Board constitutes failure to exhaust

  administrative remedies with respect to that question and deprives the Court of Appeals

  of jurisdiction to hear the matter.”).

         It only serves to reason that this is so because at issue before the BIA was the

  quality of the IJ’s assessment of the facts. See Pet.’s BIA Br., Aplt.’s App. at 11 (“The

  Immigration Judge’s finding that Caballero-Vega would be persecuted on account of his
Appellate Case: 21-9506      Document: 010110825418          Date Filed: 03/13/2023         Page: 14

  membership in the particular social group was not clearly erroneous.” (emphases added)

  (bold-face font omitted)). Yet on appeal here, Petitioner’s argument zeros in the BIA’s

  alleged failings in assessing the facts. See Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 11 (“Did the Board of

  Immigration Appeals correctly apply the clear error standard where it reversed the

  Immigration Court’s nexus finding because the Board endorsed a different interpretation

  of the evidence in the record?” (emphasis added)). Indeed, the majority’s own

  recounting of Petitioner’s arguments before the BIA and our court reveals as much: viz.,

  it reveals that, before the BIA, the focus was the alleged failings of the IJ’s factual

  analysis—an analysis that Petitioner defended—and, yet, before our court, the focus is on

  the alleged defects of the BIA’s factual analysis—an analysis that Petitioner condemns.

  See Maj. Op. at 6–7.

         The majority supports its reasoning in substantial part by citing Kabba v. Mukasey,

  530 F.3d 1239 (10th Cir. 2008), where we restated the inquiry that the petitioner urged us

  to apply in this way: “[D]id the BIA commit possible legal error by reciting the clear

  error standard but actually applying a far less deferential standard of review to the IJ’s

  credibility determinations, in which case we would review that application of law de

  novo.” Id. at 1244. And we ultimately agreed with the petitioner and concluded thusly:

  “Although the BIA’s opinion set forth the correct standard of review and recited a

  conclusion that the IJ’s credibility findings were clearly erroneous, the BIA did not apply

  this deferential standard in substance.” Id. at 1245 (emphasis added).

                                                2
Appellate Case: 21-9506       Document: 010110825418           Date Filed: 03/13/2023       Page: 15

         But this case is procedurally distinguishable from Kabba in one central respect—

  which explains why the Kabba panel could review the standard of review issue without

  confronting the obstacle of exhaustion, and we cannot review Petitioner’s assumed attack

  on the BIA’ application of the clearly erroneous standard. Specifically, in Kabba, we

  considered the petitioner’s appeal after the BIA had reversed the IJ’s credibility

  determination—ostensibly, under a clearly erroneous standard—and remanded to the IJ

  to enter an order of removal. Id. at 1243. The IJ did so, and the petitioner appealed again

  to the BIA. See id. at 1244. Critically, in this agency appeal—not only did the BIA

  affirm and reincorporate its prior decision—but it explicitly addressed the question of

  whether it had correctly applied the clearly erroneous standard of review. See id. As we

  recounted: “The BIA also supplemented its prior decision by stating that it did not engage

  in fact finding in its first decision and that the IJ’s credibility finding was clearly

  erroneous.” Id. (emphasis added).

         That was the procedural posture of Kabba when the petitioner appealed that BIA

  decision to us. Unremarkably, under those circumstances, we reached the question in

  Kabba of whether the BIA correctly applied the clearly erroneous standard, without a hint

  of concern regarding whether this issue had been properly exhausted. That is because it

  actually had been exhausted. See id. at 1245; see also Sidabutar v. Gonzales, 503 F.3d

  1116, 1118, 1122 (10th Cir. 2007) (“[B]ecause the BIA sufficiently considered

  Sidabutar’s two unraised claims in its final order and that final order was properly

                                                  3
Appellate Case: 21-9506      Document: 010110825418         Date Filed: 03/13/2023      Page: 16

  appealed in this petition for review, we assert jurisdiction over the matters directly ruled

  on by the BIA.” (emphases added)).

         But Kabba’s procedural circumstances bear no resemblance to those before

  us. Petitioner here never gave the BIA an opportunity to consider—much less rule on—

  his assumed challenge to the BIA’s application of the clearly erroneous standard. In

  other words, he neither raised the issue in his BIA brief, nor did the BIA rule on the

  issue. Petitioner was obliged to put this issue before the BIA—even if it meant filing a

  motion to reconsider or reopen. See Sidabutar, 503 F.3d at 1122 (noting that the

  petitioner “should have brought [the unexhausted claims] before the BIA in the first

  instance through a motion to reconsider or reopen”). Therefore, Petitioner’s argument

  comes to us unexhausted, and we have no jurisdiction to consider it.

         Given that Petitioner’s assumed challenge to the BIA’s application of the clearly

  erroneous standard is unexhausted and thus unreviewable, the next step should be to

  apply the deferential substantial evidence standard to the BIA’s factual nexus

  determination—a truth that even Petitioner recognizes. See Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 25

  (arguing in the alternative that “[e]ven the deferential ‘substantial evidence’ standard

  does not support the Board’s finding that Mr. Caballero-Vega’s informant work and

  testimony would not be ‘one central reason’ for his persecution” (bold-face font

  omitted)). And under that deferential standard—which the majority’s analysis elides—

  suffice it to say that a reasonable adjudicator would not be compelled to conclude that the

  BIA erred on the nexus determination. See Uanreroro v. Gonzales, 443 F.3d 1197, 1204

                                                4
Appellate Case: 21-9506      Document: 010110825418           Date Filed: 03/13/2023   Page: 17

  (10th Cir. 2006) (“[A]dministrative findings of fact are conclusive unless any reasonable

  adjudicator would be compelled to conclude to the contrary.” (quoting 8 U.S.C.

  § 1252(b)(4)(B)); Niang v. Gonzales, 422 F.3d 1187, 1196 (10th Cir. 2005) (same); cf.

  Maj. Op. at 10 (making the observation—which would be insufficient for reversal under

  the deferential substantial evidence standard—that “[t]he Board’s review of the IJ’s

  nexus finding is not substantiated nearly as well” as the IJ’s nexus analysis).

  Accordingly, I would uphold the BIA’s judgment and deny the Petition for review.

         For the foregoing reasons, I respectfully dissent.

                                               5