Court Opinion

ID: 9479994
Source: CourtListenerOpinion
Date Created: 2023-08-05 07:34:53.861966+00
Date Added: 2024-06-11T17:47:25.036107
License: Public Domain

PREGERSON, Circuit Judge,
dissenting:
I do not disagree with the majority’s analysis of the law. I do disagree, however, with its application to the facts of this case. Appellants are indigent, confirmed alcoholics. The probabilities are strong that they will stay in King County, that they will again indulge in alcohol, that they will be arrested, and that they will return to the Cedar Hills Treatment Center.
The plaintiffs cite unchallenged statistics that they have a 35% to 75% chance of returning to the drug treatment facility. The majority argues that a standing determination may not be made on the basis of such “naked statistical assertions.” True, we have in this circuit expressed a preference “to describe ‘probability’ qualitatively, as requiring a very significant possibility, and not quantitatively, as mandating a ‘greater than fifty percent’ likelihood.” Sample v. Johnson, 771 F.2d 1335, 1343 (9th Cir.1985). Such a preference does not, however, obviate all use of statistical information. Statistical information goes far in supporting qualitative determinations of probability, particularly in cases such as these.
Given the social and medical conditions of the appellants lives, conditions supported by the analysis of official government reports, there is indeed a qualitative probability that the alleged harm will recur. The appellants have established there is a credible threat they will again suffer the harm they have alleged. We are not here dealing with mere physical or theoretical possibilities. I would therefore reverse the district court’s dismissal of appellants’ claims.