Patent Application: US-10972402-A

Abstract:
a method , system and program storage device for measurement acquisition using predictive models which : can improve scalability ; can accommodate devices that operate in a disconnected mode ; and enable integration of data from sources with different time granularities . various features can be embodied in software and an object - oriented implementation is described . different implementations are described , such as standalone predictive models implemented only on a manager or managed system ; or a parallel implementation with predictive models running on both the manager and managed systems . in a parallel model implementation , the agent constructs a predictive model that is conveyed to the manager system . the models are used in parallel , possibly with no communication for an extended time . the manager uses its model to provide tentative values of measurement variables to management applications . the agent uses its model to check its accuracy . if the model is found to be insufficiently accurate , an updated model is transmitted to the manager . the invention allows other measurement acquisition protocols to operate concurrently on the same measurement variables .

Description:
[ 0081 ] fig1 a depicts an example of a system having features of the present invention . as depicted , an administrator or other end - user ( 122 ) interacts with the manager ( 120 ) to manage or use information on ( or available through ) one or more managed ( also called agent ) systems ( 125 ). the manager system ( 120 ) and / or managed system ( 125 ) hardware can be any mainframe or server architecture , including but not limited to those sold by the ibm corporation under the trademarks es9000 , as400 , or rs6000 . the managed system could also be an intermediary device such as a gateway , router , or proxy server ; or an end - user device such as client machine such as a personal computer sold by ibm corporation under the trademarks aptiva and thinkpad . although shown “ connected ” to the manager system , those skilled in the art will appreciate that the managed system ( 125 ) could be a disconnectable “ mobile ” device such as a portable , handheld , or palmtop device . as is well known , the manager system ( 120 ) and / or managed system ( 125 ) can be running an operating system ( not shown ) including but not limited to : unix ( a trademark of the open group ); those sold by the ibm corporation under the trademarks aix , mvs , or os2 ; or those sold by microsoft under the trademarks windows nt , windows 95 or windows ce . those skilled in the art will appreciate that the manager ( 120 ) and managed ( 125 ) systems may be connected by a network ( s ) ( not shown ) such as a lan , wan , or the internet and communicating by appropriate well known networking protocols , such as ethernet , token ring and / or the tcp / ip suite of protocols . such hardware , software and networking alternatives and equivalents are well known to those skilled in the art , are not part of the present invention and thus will not be discussed further . the manager ( 120 ) can include a plurality of management applications ( 100 ) that obtain measurement data from the manager measurement repository ( 110 ). data items are supplied to this repository by the ( mbm ) manager protocol handler ( 115 ) and possibly other ( non - mbm ) protocol handlers ( 160 ). the manager protocol handler may use one or more timers ( 150 ) to periodically update the manager measurement repository with predicted values of measurement variables . these predictions are obtained from the manager model handler ( 140 ) based on one or more predictive models ( 141 ) and measurement data communicated from the managed system ( 125 ). predictive models employed by the manager can be constructed from model specification messages ( 142 ). as will be described in more detail below , the present invention has features for dynamically creating , updating and deleting predictive model specifications . in one example , the models include a model definition ( i . e ., its algebraic form , such as eq ( 1 ) vs . eq . ( 2 )), its parameters ( e . g ., a and b in eq . ( 1 )), and data inputs ( which measurement variables are used ). in order for the manager protocol handler to create the model on the manager , it can : ( a ) parse the model , the model parameters , and the data inputs sent by an agent protocol handler ( 130 ); ( b ) create objects for these elements ; and ( c ) initialize these objects ( e . g ., build relationships between the objects ). an alternative is to transmit to the manager system ( 120 ), the objects built on the managed system ( 125 ) by the agent model handler ( 140 ). for example , if sun microsystem &# 39 ; s object oriented programming language , trademarked under the name java is used , objects can be serialized ( using java &# 39 ; a built - in object serialization functionality ) on the managed system and then transmitted to and reconstructed on the manager system . interactions with the managed system ( 125 ) and overall coordination of mbm on the manager is handled by the manager protocol handler ( 115 ). in this example , two types of messages are exchanged between the manager ( 120 ) and managed system ( 125 ). a model specification message ( 142 ) is sent from managed system ( 125 ) to the manager ( 120 ); it contains a model definition , its parameter values , and the data inputs . a non - model message ( 143 ) does not contain a model specification ; such messages are exchanged bi - directionally . within the managed system , the agent protocol handler ( 130 ): ( a ) handles requests from and replies to the manager ; ( b ) uses the agent model handler ( 145 ) to create , update , and check the validity of the predictive models ( 141 ) provided to managers ; and ( c ) keeps a record in the agent measurement repository ( 170 ) of the measurement values known to the manager . model checking , updating , and confirmations are done periodically , as governed by the timer components ( 150 ). one or more agent data access facilities ( 135 ) provide access to measurements of the managed system . predictive model ( s ) ( 141 ) on the managed system are constructed by the agent model handler . mbm can be applied to areas other than the management of information technology resources . in particular , and by way of example only , consider a financial application . this application trades securities in markets around the world . as such , obtaining current pricing information is critical . to this end , the financial application runs on a manager system ( 120 ) node that obtains pricing data from multiple agent systems ( 125 ) that supply data for specific markets . thus , mbm can provide a low - overhead way to obtain current pricing data if there are reasonably accurate predictive models for the prices of the interest ( e . g ., time series models , such as those used to forecast econometric data ). here , the application ( 100 ) is a trading application . the manager measurement repository ( 110 ) contains pricing data . the manager protocol handler ( 115 ) communicates with the agents ( 125 ) that supply the pricing data . the manager model handler ( 140 ) constructs predictive models of the pricing data based on information supplied by the agents that supply this data . the agent procotol handler ( 130 ) communicates with the manager protocol handler to supply the pricing data and model specifications ( 142 ). the agent data access facility ( 135 ) obtains pricing data for a specific security . the agent measurement repository ( 170 ) contains pricing data that corresponds to that maintained on the manager . the agent model handler ( 145 ) constructs predictive models based on the pricing data in the agent measurement repository ( 170 ). the other protocol handler ( 160 ) provides alternative means for accessing pricing data . the timer ( 150 ) provides a mechanism for initiating periodic actions in the manager protocol handler ( 115 ) and the agent protocol handler ( 130 ). consider now an example of a management application . fig1 b depicts an example of a flow that will be discussed in a health - monitoring application ( although the flow is fully general ). in this example , the application ( 100 ) plots data items such as cpu utilization , response times , and network utilizations , all of which are of interest to administrators who want a “ live feed ” of the wellness of the managed systems ( 125 ). as depicted , the flow begins at block 2210 , with the application being notified that a data item has been created or modified . the application then ( 100 ) checks the status for the data item . in block 2220 , if the data item has a status code of “ tentative ”, the value is plotted ( e . g ., as an open circle ) to indicate that it is based on model predictions . in block 2230 , if the data item has a status code of “ confirmed ”, this can be plotted ( e . g ., with a filled circle ) to indicate a higher level of confidence . in block 2240 , if the data item has a status code of “ actual ”, the data value can be plotted ( e . g ., with an asterisk ) to indicate that this represents an actual value . although an object - oriented software approach is used to describe the operation of the present invention ( see e . g ., booch , 1994 ), those skilled in the art will appreciate that many other implementations are within the spirit and scope of the present invention . objects are instances of classes . classes define methods ( procedures ) and attributes ( variables ) that are common to all objects within the same class . a system is specified in terms of : ( a ) a class diagram that displays which classes know about ( e . g ., have pointers to ) which other classes ; ( b ) descriptions of the methods that each class provides ; and ( c ) scenarios that show how sequences of steps can be used to achieve desired functions . in this example , the convention is that class names begin with an upper case letter ; method names begin with a lower case letter and end with parentheses ( to indicate that they are functions ); and scenario names are in bold italics . begin with the class diagrams . standard booch notation is used in which : ( a ) a cloud indicates a class ; ( b ) inheritance is indicated by an arrow that points from the child class to its parent ; ( c ) the knows - about relation is depicted by a line that has a solid dot attached to the class that knows about the class at the other end of the line ; and ( d ) a one - to - many knows - about relationship is specified by a “ knows - about ” line that is annotated with a lower case n . [ 0092 ] fig2 b depicts an example of a class diagram for a superset of the components in fig1 a . as depicted , an application ( 2010 ) object knows about a managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ), and a managermeasurementrepository knows about all application objects that have mbm subscriptions . a managermeasurementrepository contains a plurality of dataitem ( 2095 ) objects . there is one dataitem object for each data item in the managermeasurementrepository . a managermeasurementrepository knows about a managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ), and the reverse holds as well . the otherprotocolhandler ( 2025 ) objects know about the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ). the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ) knows about a managermodelhandler ( 2040 ). the managermodelhandler has a plurality of modelspecification ( 2045 ) objects , each of which describes a model for measurement of a variable . the managerprotocolhandler also knows about a plurality of timer ( 2050 ) objects . specifically , the managerprotocolhandler knows about one timer object for each measurement variable . the timer ( 2050 ) knows about the client for which it is created . thus , the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ) is a subclass of a timerclient ( 2060 ) ( as indicated by the arrow ). the timerclient ( 2060 ) is a common abstraction that allows timer objects to invoke a special method ( timerexpiration ( )) in the timerclient . the use of such abstractions provides modularity in object - oriented applications . to one skilled in the art , the definition and implementation of the timerclient is straight forward . as such , it is not addressed further . the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ) object knows about a plurality of agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) objects . the agentprotocolhandler only knows about a single managerprotocolhandler . the agentprotocolhandler uses two timer ( 2050 ) objects for each measurement variable . one timer tracks the interval for checking the variable &# 39 ; s predictive model . the second timer determines when to send a heart - beat message to the manager . the agentprotocolhandler inherits from the timerclient ( 2060 ). the agentprotocolhandler knows about a plurality of agentdataaccessfacility ( 2070 ) objects ( one for each type of data , such as vmstat , netstat , and iostat in unix systems ); and the agentprotocolhandler also knows about an agentmodelhandler ( 2090 ). the agentprotocolhandler and agentmodelhandler know about an agentmeasurementrepository object ( 2098 ), which is used to record measurement values reported to the manager . as such , an agentmeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) knows about a plurality of dataitem ( 2095 ) objects . the agentmodelhandler constructs predictive models for measurement variables and provides a way to check their accuracy . [ 0096 ] fig2 b depicts an example of a class diagram describing the dataitem ( 2095 ) and the modelspecification ( 2045 ) classes in more detail . as depicted , a dataitem ( 2095 ) includes : ( 1 ) a variableid ( 2310 ) that indicates the measurement variable for which the dataitem provides a value , ( 2 ) preferably a statuscode ( 2320 ) that specifies the status ( i . e ., “ tentative ”, “ confirmed ”, “ actual ”) of the data item , and ( 3 ) a datavalue ( 2330 ) that contains the numeric value for the dataitem . a modelspecification ( 2045 ) includes : ( 1 ) a variableid that uniquely identifies the measurement variable ; ( 2 ) a modeldefinition ( 2340 ) class that describes the functional form of the model ( e . g ., polish postfix notation ); ( 3 ) a modelparameters ( 2050 ) class that specifies the parameter values to use for constants in the modeldefinition ( e . g ., a and b in eq . ( 1 )), and ( 4 ) a modelinputs class ( 2360 ) that relates variables in the modelspecification to dataitems in the measurement repositories ( e . g ., relates x ( t − 1 ) to the last dataitem for the variable x ). [ 0097 ] fig3 a depicts examples of simple classes used as inputs to and outputs from the methods herein described . an accuracy ( 3010 ) class quantifies how close a predicted value must be to the observed value . this could be unit - less ( e . g ., a percent ), an absolute value , or something else . the classes : boolean ( 3020 ); elapsedtime ( 3040 ) ( a time value ); and objectid ( 3050 ) are well known to those skilled in the art . the class heartbeatinterval ( 3060 ) has a well understood data type — a time value — which is used to express the interval between confirmation messages sent from the managed system ( 125 ) to the manager ( 120 ). the classes : sampleinterval ( 3110 ); and timestamp ( 3120 ) are time values . the timerid ( 3130 ) is a handle used in the timer class . the void ( 3150 ) class is used to indicate that no class is defined . having introduced exemplary classes in the present embodiment , their operation will now be discussed . the methods required for the dataitem and modeldefinition classes , and the classes depicted in fig2 a and fig3 a include : constructors , setting a value , and getting a value . such methods are straight forward to implement and so are not considered further . fig3 b , and 4 - 10 depict examples of methods for additional classes . for the most part , the logic of these methods is straight forward . where this is not the case , elaboration is supplied in the description of the method or in the scenarios presented later on . [ 0100 ] fig3 b depicts an example of a method in the application class . as depicted , there is only one : notify ( ). the notify ( ) ( 30010 ) method is invoked to inform an application object of a change in a measurement variable to which the object has subscribed . the behavior is specific to the application , as in the example depicted in fig1 a . [ 0101 ] fig4 depicts examples of methods used in the managerprotocolhandler class ( 2030 ). the concurrrentupdate ( ) ( 4005 ) method is invoked when a measurement variable is updated by another protocol handler . more detail is provided in the concurrentupdate scenario , discussed later . the createmodel ( ) ( 4010 ) method constructs an in - storage representation of the modelspecification ( 2045 ) object . this can be implemented as an expression tree ( see fig6 b ), which is well known art ( e . g ., aho and ullman , 1972 ). a getdatareply ( ) ( 4020 ) method is invoked when a measured value is supplied to the manager protocolhandler ( 2030 ) through the mbm protocol . the getdatareply ( ) ( 4020 ) method updates the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ). a heartbeat ( ) ( 4030 ) method is invoked when a heart - beat message is received from the managed system ( 125 ), in which case the status of the variable in the heart - beat message is changed from “ tentative ” to “ confirmed ”. a modelupdaterequest ( ) ( 4040 ) method is used to request an update of the model for the variable . the modelupdatereply ( ) ( 4050 ) method is invoked when the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) sends a model update , in which case the managermodelhandler ( 2030 ) is called to change its model . the subscribe ( ) ( 4060 ) method is invoked to request an mbm subscription to a measurement variable . a timerexpiration ( ) ( 4070 ) method is invoked to provide periodic updates of the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) for a measurement variable . this is done by creating a dataitem whose value is obtained from the managermodelhandler ( via getpredictedvalue ( )) ( fig6 ) and whose statuscode is “ tentative .” an unsubscribe ( ) ( 4080 ) method removes the mbm subscription for a specified variable . [ 0102 ] fig5 depicts examples of methods in the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) class . the checkmodel ( ) ( 5010 ) method determines if the model for a specified variable is within any accuracy bounds which may have been specified in the subscription to the managed system . a concurrentupdate ( ) ( 5020 ) method notifies the managed system ( 125 ) that a non - mbm protocol handler has updated a dataitem for a subscribed - to measurement variable . a getmodelconfirmationtime ( ) ( 5030 ) method returns the time at which a specified variable was last confirmed to be within its accuracy bounds . this requires that the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) keep historical information on when the model &# 39 ; s accuracy is checked . a getdatarequest ( ) ( 5040 ) method obtains the current value of a specified measurement variable by requesting it from the appropriate agentdataaccessfacility ( 2070 ). a subscribes ( 5060 ) method is invoked when a manager subscribes to a specified measurement variable . the subscription can also include a specified : bound for the accuracy of the predicted values ( accuracy ); interval for the heart beat message ( heartbeatinterval ) confirming the specified accuracy ; and an interval ( sampleinterval ) during which values are to be updated in the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ). the timerexpiration ( ) ( 5070 ) method checks the accuracy of the predictive model for a specified variable . the unsubscribe ( ) ( 5080 ) method removes the subscription to a specified measurement variable . [ 0103 ] fig6 a depicts examples of methods for the managermodelhandler ( 2040 ) class . an example of a createmodel ( ) ( 6010 ) method includes the steps of : extracting the modeldefinition ( 2340 ), modelparameters ( 2350 ), and modelinputs ( 2360 ) from the modelspecification ( 2045 ); allocating storage ; and then constructing an expression tree for the model . a deletemodel ( ) ( 6020 ) method frees the storage allocated . a getpredictedvalue ( ) ( 6030 ) method invokes the model &# 39 ; s expression tree for the specified values in the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) to obtain a predicted value at the timestamp specified . an updatemodel ( ) ( 6040 ) modifies the expression tree in accordance with those elements of the argument modelspecification that have changed since the expression tree was created ( or last updated ). to elaborate , consider an example of an expression tree for eq ( 1 ), depicted in fig6 b . as depicted , the leaves of the tree ( at nodes 60040 , 60050 , 60060 , and 60070 ) can be constants or variables . each non - root node specifies how to combine results . in node 60020 , it is specified that the value of a ( in node 60040 ) should be multiplied by the value of x ( t − 1 ) ( in node 60050 ). in nodes 60030 and 60060 , the same is specified for b ( in node 60060 ) and x ( t − 2 ) ( in node 60070 ), respectively . in node 60010 , the root specifies that the result produced by the subtree , rooted at node 60020 , should be added to the result produced by the subtree rooted at node 60030 . an expression tree can be modified in several ways . one modification is to replace a term , such as changing x ( t − 2 ) ( in node 60070 ) to x ( t − 3 ). another modification is to add an expression subtree . for example , consider a model update that changes eq ( 1 ) to the following : x ( t )= a * x ( t − 1 )+ b * x ( t − 2 )+ d * x ( t − 4 ) tm eq ( 1 ′) updating the expression tree in fig6 b to correspond to eq ( 1 ′) can be accomplished using the following steps : ( a ) add to node 60010 , another child that specifies a multiply operation ; ( b ) add two children to this new child such that one corresponds to d and the other corresponds to x ( t − 4 ). still another modification is to delete a subtree from the expression tree . for example , if the term a * x ( t − 1 ) is removed from eq ( 1 ), then we should delete the subtree rooted at node 60020 from the expression tree in fig6 b . [ 0108 ] fig7 depicts examples of methods for the agentmodelhandler ( 2090 ) class . a definemodel ( ) ( 7010 ) method performs model identification and parameter estimation ( e . g ., as in box and jenkins , 1976 ) to construct a model of a specified variable based on measurements in the agentmeasurementrepository . optionally , if a model with a specified accuracy value can be created , then an expression tree for the model is built and a non - null modelspecification ( 2045 ) object is returned . otherwise , the modelspecification returned is null . a deletemodel ( ) ( 7020 ) method deletes the model context information from the agentmodelhandler . a getpredictedvalue ( ) ( 7040 ) method returns an estimated value of a specified measurement variable based on the measured values in the agentmeasurementrepository ( 2098 ) at a specified timestamp . [ 0109 ] fig8 depicts examples of methods for the timer ( 2050 ) object . the deletetimer ( ) ( 8010 ) method deletes a specified timer . the resettimer ( 8020 ) resets a specified timer at a specified elapsed time value ( elapsedtime ). a settimer ( ) ( 8030 ) method sets a specified timer at a specified elapsed time value ( elapsedtime ). these methods ( or their equivalents ) are well known to one versed in the art . [ 0110 ] fig9 depicts examples of methods for the agentdataaccessfacility ( 2070 ). a getvalue ( ) ( 9010 ) method retrieves a value for a specified measurement variable . a startcollection ( ) ( 9020 ) method triggers the start of collection of values for a specified measurement variable . a stopcollection ( ) ( 9030 ) method triggers the end of collection of values for a specified measurement variable . these methods ( or their equivalents ) are also well known to one versed in the art . [ 0111 ] fig1 depicts examples of methods in the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ). observe that a corresponding dataitem ( 2095 ) object is uniquely identified by the value of its variableid and its timestamp . a deletevariable ( ) ( 10005 ) method eliminates all dataitems in the managermeasurementrepository with the variableid specified . a getstatuscode ( ) ( 10010 ) method retrieves the statuscode of the corresponding dataitem . a getvalue ( ) ( 10020 ) method obtains the datavalue of a corresponding dataitem . an updatevalue ( ) ( 10030 ) method creates a new dataitem for the variableid and timestamp specified , if such a dataitem does not exist already . otherwise , the dataitem &# 39 ; s datavalue and / or statuscode are changed to that of the parameters specified in the arguments of the method . a putvalue ( ) ( 10040 ) method creates a new dataitem and sets its statuscode to “ actual ”. this method is the only way that non - mbm maps add dataitems to the managermeasurementrepository . as such , this method provides a way for the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ) to be notified of concurrent updates to measurement variables . a subscribe ( ) ( 10060 ) method specifies : the variable for which a managed system desires a subscription ; a desired accuracy bound of the variable ; the heart - beat interval for which confirmations are desired ; the sample interval in which values are to be updated in the managermeasurementrepository ; and the object to be notified when such updates occur . [ 0112 ] fig1 depicts examples of methods in the agentmeasurementrepository ( 2098 ). a deletevariable ( ) ( 11005 ) method eliminates all dataitems in the agentmeasurementrepository with the variableid specified . a getvalue ( ) ( 11020 ) method obtains the datavalue for the dataitem ( correpsonding to the variableid and timestamp ). a putvalue ( ) ( 11040 ) method creates a new dataitem with a specified data value . [ 0113 ] fig1 depicts several exemplary scenarios and their sequencing dependencies . a subscribe scenario ( 210 ) occurs when an application ( 100 ) uses mbm to subscribe to a measurement variable , thereby enabling the use of predictive models that provide tentative updates . the checkmodel scenario ( 220 ) describes how predictive models can be are checked for accuracy and the actions taken when the accuracy is below what is expected . the heartbeat scenario ( 230 ) illustrates how periodic heart - beat messages can be used to provide the manager with confirmations of tentative values . the unsubscribe scenario ( 240 ) details how subscriptions can be revoked by an application ( 100 ). the concurrentupdate scenario ( 270 ) shows how other maps can update measurement variables concurrently . the tentativeupdate scenario ( 260 ) shows how tentative updates can be constructed and posted into the managermeasurementrepository . note that the subscribe scenario must occur before any of the others . indeed , the darkened oval indicates that this scenario is the starting point . also , note that the scenarios checkmodel , heartbeat , concurrentupdate , and tentativeupdate can occur in any order with respect to one another . in the sequel , scenarios are presented as booch object interaction diagrams . objects are indicated by their class name . this appears at the top of the diagram . if there are multiple objects of the same class , then a suffix is added . the class of each object appears at the top of the diagram . the relative time at which interactions occur proceeds from top to bottom . interactions take the form of method invocations , with the arrow pointing from caller to the call - ee . with the exception of the statuscode class , arguments and return values are not specified . processing within a method is indicated by an arrow that is shaped like a backwards letter “ c .” [ 0115 ] fig1 depicts an example of the first part of the subscribe scenario ( 210 ). as depicted , in steps 13010 , 13020 and 13030 , the subscription request is propagated from the application ( 2010 ), to the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ), to the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ), and then to the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ). in steps 13040 , 13050 , 13060 , 13070 and 13080 , data collection is begun on the managed system ( 125 ) and the agentmeasurementrepository ( 2098 ) is updated . in steps 13090 , 13100 , and 13110 , the manager ( 125 ) receives the values of measurements obtained from the managed system , places them in the managermeasurementrepository ( with a statuscode of “ actual ”), and notifies the application that the data are present . in steps 13120 , 13130 and 13140 , the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) attempts to define a model of the subscribed - to variable . in this scenario , insufficient data exist to construct a modelspecification ( 2045 ), and so a null value is returned from the definemodel ( ) method ( 7010 ). also , note that within the definemodel ( ) method invoked in ( 13120 ), objects are created within the agent model handler ( 13125 ). [ 0116 ] fig1 a and 14b depicts an example of the second part of the subscribe scenario . as depicted , in step 14010 , the scenario is initiated by the expiration of a check model timer ( timerck ). ( recall that timerck is set in fig1 in ( 12050 ), it is set again in ( 14100 ).) in steps 14020 and 14030 , the managed system obtains another value of the measurement variable for which the subscription has been initiated . in steps 14040 , 14050 and 14060 : the manager ( 120 ) receives the values of measurements obtained from the managed system ( 125 ); places them in the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) ( with a statuscode of “ actual ”); and notifies the application ( 2010 ) that the data are present . in steps 14070 , 14080 , and 14090 : the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) defines a model for the variable for which the subscription is done . as depicted , two data values are sufficient to define the model , although in practice more data may be required . in step 14100 , a timer is set ( timerck ) to trigger periodic accuracy checking of the of the model . in step 14110 another timer ( timerhb ) is set , to trigger periodic heart - beat messages . in steps 14120 and 14130 , the model of the variable is communicated to the manager , and the managermodelhandler ( 2040 ) creates the expression tree for this model . in step 14140 , a timer ( timerud ) is set so that the managermeasurementrepository is updated periodically . note that during the execution of the createmodel ( ) ( 14120 ) method in the manager protocol handler , the string form of the model specification received from the managed system is parsed ( 14125 ) and an object representation ( as in fig2 a ) is created . further , during the execution of the createmodel ( ) method ( 14130 ) in the manager model handler , objects are created and initialized ( 14135 ). the checkmodel scenario is organized into two sub - cases . fig1 depicts an example of interactions when the predictive model is found to be within the accuracy limits specified on the subscription message . as depicted , in step 15010 , the scenario is initiated by the expiration of the check - model timer ( timerck ). in steps 15020 , 15030 ) and 15040 : the predicted value of the measurement variable is obtained using getvalue ( ) in ( 15030 ) and ( 15040 ). in step 15050 , the actual value is obtained from the agent data access facility ( 135 ). in step 15060 , the two values are compared and found to be sufficiently close . in step 15070 , the timer ( timerck ) is set so that periodic checking continues . [ 0118 ] fig1 depicts an example of the checkmodel scenario when the model is found not to be sufficiently accurate . as depicted , in step 16010 , the scenario is initiated by the expiration of the check - model timer ( timerck ). in steps 16020 , 16030 , and 16040 : the expected and actual value of the measurement variable are obtained . in step 16050 , the model is checked and found to be insufficiently accurate ( not within a specified accuracy bound ). in steps 16060 , 16070 , 16080 , and 16090 : the agentmeasurementrepository and managermeasurementrepository are updated with the most current values . note that in step 16080 the managermeasurementrepository is updated with a statuscode of “ actual ”. in steps 16100 , 16110 , 16120 , 16130 and 16140 : the current model is deleted ; a new model is constructed ; and sent to the manager . in step 16150 , a timer ( timerck ) is set so that periodic model checking continues . in step 16160 , the manager processes the updated model . note that during the execution of the definemodel ( ) method ( step 16110 ) of the agent model handler , objects are created and initialized ( step 16135 ). also , during the execution of the modelupdatereply ( ) method ( step 16140 ), the string form of the model specification received from the managed system is parsed and an object representation of the model specification ( as in fig2 b ) is created . further , during the execution of the updatemodel ( ) method ( step 16160 ) of the manager model handler , objects are updated and initialized ( step 16165 ). [ 0119 ] fig1 depicts an example of interactions for the heartbeat scenario . as depicted , in step 17010 , the heart - beat timer expires , which initiates the scenario . in step 17020 , the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) obtains the time at which the model of the measurement variable was last confirmed . in step 17030 , the heart - beat message is sent to the manager . in step 17040 , a timer ( timerhb ) is set so that this scenario will be repeated periodically . in steps 17050 , 17060 , 17070 and 17080 : the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) is updated with a statuscode of “ confirmed ”; and the application is notified of the status change . note that a single heart - beat message can result in updating multiple dataitem objects since these correspond to values of a measurement variable at different time stamps , all of which are confirmed by the heart - beat message . [ 0120 ] fig1 a and 18b depicts an example of interactions for the unsubscribe scenario . as depicted , in step 18010 , an application ( 100 ) initiates the revocation of subscription . in step 18020 , the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) removes all dataitem objects for the specified measurement variable . in steps 18030 , 18040 and 18050 , the timer and model for the measurement variable are deleted on the manager ( 120 ). in step 18060 , the managed system ( 125 ) is informed that the subscription is revoked . in steps 18070 , 18080 , 18090 , 18100 and 18110 , the managed system ( 125 ) deletes : the timers ; the repository entries ; and the collection tasks associated with the specified measurement variable . note that during the execution of the deletemodel ( ) method ( step 18050 ) of the manager model handler , objects are deleted ( step 18055 ). also , during the execution of the deletemodel ( ) ( step 18090 ) of the agent model handler , objects are deleted ( step 18095 ). [ 0121 ] fig1 depicts an example of the concurrentupdate scenario . this refers to a situation in which a non - mbm protocol is being used concurrently with mbm . for simplicity , not all of the architectural components of this non - mbm protocol are shown , just the element on the manager ( 120 ) that updates the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ). ( clearly , there must be at least one component on the managed system ( 125 ) as well .) as depicted , in step 19010 , the non - mbm map ( otherprotocolhandler ) updates the managermeasurementrepository using the putvalue ( ) method . in step 19020 , the putvalue ( ) method invokes the updatevalue ( ) method with a statuscode of “ actual ”. in step 19030 and 19040 : the managerprotocolhandler ( 2030 ) is informed of the concurrent update , which in turn informs the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ). in step 19050 , the agentmeasurementrepository ( 2098 ) is updated . [ 0122 ] fig2 depicts an example of the tentativeupdate scenario . as depicted , in step 20010 , the scenario is initiated by the update timer expiration ( timerud ) on the manager ( 120 ). in steps 20020 , 20030 , and 20040 : the predicted value of the measurement variable is obtained . note that no actual values are obtained from the managed system in this scenario since we are only considering the use of tentative values by the application ( 100 ). in step 20050 , the managermeasurementrepository ( 2020 ) is updated with a statuscode of “ tentative ”. in step 20060 , the application is notified that a new value is available . in step 20070 , the update timer is set so that the scenario can be repeated . one difficulty in practice with the proposed embodiment is that the manager must predict values at time stamps that are determined by the clock on the managed system , but the manager and managed systems may not have synchronized clocks . this can be addressed by using a relative time stamp that indexes a set of sampling intervals . for example , a three could be used to identify the third sampling interval . this approach only requires that clocks operate at the same rate . another consideration in practice is handling memory management of dataitem objects that are created in the measurement repositories ( on the manager ( 1110 ) and managed ( 170 ) systems ). to one versed in the art , knowledge of memory management schemes is common , such as only allowing a fixed amount of history or providing installation controls to establish specific policies . various efficiency improvements are possible in the embodiment herein described . first , in the checkmodel scenario depicted in fig1 , updating the predictive model on the managed system is accomplished by deleting the existing model and defining a new model . however , within the spirit and scope of the present invention , some efficiencies can be gained by doing incremental adjustments to the model , thereby avoiding overheads such as releasing and re - allocating storage . a second efficiency is to extend the embodiment to address groups of measurement variables . with this extension , the statuscode and timestamp objects refer to a set of measurement variables and their values . to one skilled in the art , this is relatively straight forward since it only requires modest adjustments to the parameters passed in method calls and to the objects used inside these methods . another variation of the present invention is to eliminate the statuscode of “ confirmed ” by including in the heart - beat message the values of the confirmed dataitem objects . this approach simplifies the design somewhat . it also simplifies the user interface for management applications such as that described in fig1 a . the main disadvantage of this approach is that message sizes can increase considerably if there is a long delay between heart - beat messages and / or a large number of measurement variables are acquired using mbm . again , to one skilled in the art , this variation is straight forward to implement . another straight forward extension to the present invention is to have multiple managers for a single managed system . doing so requires that dataitems in the agentmeasurementrepository ( 2098 ) and modelspecifications ( 2045 ) in the agentmodelhandler ( 2090 ) be indexed by manager so that the agentprotocolhandler ( 2080 ) can determine if the manager &# 39 ; s predictions are within the accuracy bounds specified by the subscription . yet another fairly easy extension to the present invention is to use heart - beat messages to determine if a managed system is severely impaired . that is , the manager uses a second timer object for each variable ( or variable group ) to provide a notification of when a heart - beat message is expected . if the message does not arrive , then a notification is sent or an action is taken to address a potential problem with the managed system . last , it is observed that one approach to handling concurrent updates ( fig1 ) by other maps generates a message ( 143 ) from the manager to the managed system . this is done so that other maps need not be aware of the mbm protocol . if this restriction is removed , then it can be required of other maps to : ( a ) inform the agentprotocolhandler when data are obtained ; and ( b ) inform the managerprotocolhandler when the update is posted . with this approach , the number of messages exchanged is reduced . yet another alternative is to consider predictive models that are present only on the manager system ( 120 ). this may arise , for example , when there is a single controller that is doing load balancing across diverse systems ( e . g ., a workstation and a supercomputer ) and hence the controller needs to model the systems to which jobs are sent in order to estimate their load levels . note that this alternative still requires model specifications that consist of a model definition , parameter values , and input data . still another alternative is that the predictive models ( 141 ) are present only on the managed system ( 125 ). indeed , it may be that the managed system is a standalone system . such an implementation provides a way to more effectively manage resources . in the current state - of - the - art , thresholds are used to control resource consumption so that catastrophic conditions are avoided . for example , in a router , excessive cpu consumption can deprive the router of processing needed to support basic kernel services . thus , there is typically an upper limit specified on the cpu that can be consumed by nonessential processes . this limit is typically set sufficiently low to accommodate a variety of circumstances , such as different kinds of message processing . as a result , the limit is often too low for some kinds of message traffic , and it may be too high for others . by having a predictive model that can forecast future values of cpu consumption , it is possible to employ a more efficient approach to resource management in which the threshold depends on predicted values . hence , the effective upper limit for cpu consumption will be higher when the traffic is less demanding and lower when the traffic is more demanding . note that this embodiment still requires model specifications that consist of a model definition , parameter values , and input data . now that the invention has been described by way of a preferred embodiment , with alternatives , various modifications and improvements will occur to those of skill in the art . thus , it should be understood that the detailed description should be construed as an example and not a limitation . the invention is properly defined by the appended claims . the following references are hereby incorporated herein by reference in their entirety : a . v . aho and j . d . ulhman , the theory of parsing , translation , and compiling , prentice - hall , 1972 . r . f . berry and j . l . hellerstein , “ a flexible and scalable approach to navigating measurement data in performance management applications ,” second ieee conference on systems management , toronto , canada , june , 1996 . g . booch , object - oriented analysis and design , the benjamin / cummings publishing company , redwood city , calif . 1994 . g . e . p . box and g . m . jenkins , time series analysis forecasting and control , prentice hall , 1976 . t . m . cover and j . a . thomas , elements of information theory ; 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