Patent Application: US-81506204-A

Abstract:
risk assessment and diagnosis of a complex disorder often requires measuring an underlying quantitative phenotype . association studies in unrelated populations can implicate genetic factors contributing to disease risk , and experiments using pooled dna provide a less costly but necessarily less powerful alternative to methods based on individual genotyping . although the sample sizes required for pooling and individual genotyping studies have been compared in certain instances , general results have not been reported in the context of association studies , nor have there been clear comparisons of pooling based on quantitative and qualitative phenotypes . here we use exact numerical calculations and analytical approximations to examine the sample size requirements of association tests for quantitative traits and affected - unaffected studies using pooled dna . we show , in analogy with selection experiments , that the optimal design for virtually any quantitative phenotype is to pool the top and bottom 27 % of individuals , regardless of marker frequency or inheritance mode ; this design requires a population only 24 % larger than that required for individual genotyping . furthermore , this design is approximately four times more efficient than typical affected - unaffected studies of dna pooled from individuals classified as affected or unaffected .

Description:
the present invention provides analytic results for association tests . it is shown that the results obtained closely approximate the analytic results to exact numerical calculations . the invention further extends the analysis to qualitative phenotypes using a genotype relative risk model . a particular quantitative phenotype x is standardized to have unit variance and zero mean . the phenotype is hypothesized to be affected by alleles a 1 and a 2 , with frequencies p and 1 − p respectively , at a particular qtl . the population fractions p ( g ) for genotypes g = a 1 a 1 , a 1 a 2 , and a 2 a 2 are assumed obey hardy - weinberg equilibrium . using standard notation for a variance components model ( falconer and mackay , 1996 ), the effect μ g of genotype g on phenotype x is a − μ for a 1 a 1 , d − μ for a 1 a 2 , and − a − μ for a 2 a 2 . the constant μ =( 2p − 1 ) a + 2p ( 1 − p ) d ensures that the mean of x is zero . the ratio d / a describes the inheritance mode for allele a 1 . dominant , recessive , and additive inheritance are special cases with d / a equal to + 1 , − 1 , and 0 , respectively . the phenotypic variance due to the qtl may be partitioned into the additive variance σ a 2 and the dominance variance σ d 2 , with σ a 2 + σ d 2 = 2 pq [ a − d ( p − q )] 2 + 4 p 2 q 2 d 2 . the additive variance is often much larger than the dominance variance even if the inheritance mode is not purely additive . the exceptions are qtls with a recessive minor alleles and dominant major alleles , which are difficult to detect in unselected populations . the contribution of remaining genetic and environmental factors is assumed to follow a normal distribution with residual variance σ r 2 , of particular interest here are complex traits : the effect of any single qtl is small , σ a 2 + σ d 2 & lt ; 0 . 05 , and the residual variance σ r 2 is nearly 1 . a genotype relative risk model corresponds to classifying individuals as affected ( x & gt ; x t ) or unaffected ( x & lt ; x t ) based on a specific threshold x t . the proportion r of the total population that is affected is the overall risk or disease incidence ; the probability that an individual with genotype g is affected , relative to the probability for an individual with genotype a 2 a 2 , is the genotype relative risk . if the inheritance mode of a 1 is additive and a is small compared to σ r , the relative risk is multiplicative with allele dose . the sample size n required to detect association between genotype g and the quantitative phenotype or the disease risk depends on the type i error rate α , the type ii error rate β , and the test statistic and experimental design ( snedecor and cochran , 1989 ), as well as on the underlying genetic model . for a one - sided test of a single marker , α = 1 − φ ( z α ), where φ ( z ) is the cumulative probability distribution for standard normal deviate z , defines α in terms of deviate z α . similarly , 1 − β is the power to reject the null hypothesis and z 1 − β = φ − 1 ( β ). for a genome scan , the values α = 5 × 10 − 8 ( z α = 5 . 33 ) and 1 − β = 0 . 8 ( z 1 − β =− 0 . 84 ) have been suggested ( risch and merikangas , 1996 ). we consider two experimental designs using dna pooled from individuals selected from a sample of size n : affected - unaffected pools , with dna pooled from n affected and n unaffected individuals ; and tail pools , with dna pooled from n individuals at each tail of the phenotype distribution . the test statistic for these designs is the frequency difference of the a 1 allele between the pools . the multinomial distribution describing the test statistic may be used to calculate exactly the sample size required to achieve statistical significance at specified power . when the number of a 1 alleles summed over both pools is large , the distribution of the test statistic is approximately normal . a significant association is detected if the allele frequency difference between pools is at least z α times the standard deviation of its estimator , or z α p 1 / 2 ( 1 − p ) 1 / 2 / n 1 / 2 . furthermore , when the additive variance σ a 2 is small and the residual variance σ r 2 is close to 1 , convenient analytic approximations for the sample size requirements may be derived . for the affected - unaffected design , n = rn of the individuals are expected to be diagnosed as affected , and an additional n matched controls are selected from the remainder of the population . the analytic approximation for the sample size is n c - c =[ z α − z 1 − β ] 2 [ σ r 2 / σ a 2 ]· 2 r ( 1 − r ) 2 / y 2 [ 1 + x t ( 1 − σ r 2 ) 1 / 2 / 2 3 / 2 σ r 2 p 1 / 2 ( 1 − p ) 1 / 2 ] 2 . ( eq . 1 ) the term y is the height of the standard normal distribution at the normal deviate x t / σ r corresponding to the threshold between affected and unaffected phenotypic values . the tail pools are parameterized by the fraction ρ = n / n of population selected for each pool , and ρ plays a role analogous to the overall disease incidence r in the affected - unaffected design . the analytical approximation for the sample size is n tail =[ z α − z 1 − β ] 2 [ σ r 2 / σ a 2 ]· ρ / 2 y 2 , ( eq . 2 ) where y is the height of the standard normal distribution for normal deviate φ − 1 ( ρ ). the design may be optimized by selecting ρ to minimize n tail , which corresponds to minimizing ρ / 2y 2 . with this approximation , the optimal fraction is 0 . 27 and is independent of α , β , and all parameters of the genetic model . a third method , individual genotyping , serves as a baseline for evaluating the efficiency of the two pooling - based methods . the sample size required to achieve significance using individual genotyping is n indiv =[ z α − z 1 − β σ r ] 2 / σ a 2 , ( eq . 3 ) p ( x | g )=( 2π ) − 1 / 2 exp [−( x − μ g ) 2 / σ r 2 ], and the overall phenotype distribution is the sum of the three normal distributions , when an upper threshold x u is specified to select a fraction ρ of the total population with phenotypic values above the threshold , the equation ρ = σ g { 1 − φ [( x u − μ g )/ σ g ]} p ( g ). may be solved numerically for x u as a function of ρ . the genotypes of individuals selected by x & gt ; x u follow a multinomial distribution ; the probability that an individual has genotype g is θ u ( g )={ 1 − φ [( x u − μ g )/ σ g ]} p ( g )/ ρ . a multinomial distribution is similarly defined using a lower threshold x l , 1 = σ g θ l ( g )= ρ − 1 σ g φ [( x l − μ g )/ σ g ] p ( g ). for an affected - unaffected design , the fraction in the upper pool is r and the fraction in the lower pool is 1 − r , yielding x u = x l = x t . the relative risk for genotype g is [ θ u ( g )/ p ( g )]/[ θ u ( a 2 a 2 )/ p ( a 2 a 2 )]. sample size requirements may be obtained directly from the multinomial distributions of genotypes by exhaustively tabulating allele counts c u and c l in the upper and lower pools for each distinct composition of genotypes among the n selected individuals . the distribution corresponding to null hypothesis , θ ( g )= p ( g ), is used to define the smallest threshold δc such that c u − c l ≦ δc with probability a or less . the discrete allele count usually yields the strict inequality . next , the distributions under the alternative hypothesis are considered , and the probability that c u − c l ≦ δc is tabulated to provide the power . if the power is greater than or equal to the specified 1 − β , the choice of n and n = n / ρ or n / r is feasible . a search is performed for the smallest feasible n with r or ρ specified . for tail pools , ρ is then varied to find the overall optimum . when the number of alleles summed over both pools is large , the allele frequency difference follows a normal distribution . under the null hypothesis , the mean is zero and variance is σ 0 2 / n = p ( 1 − p )/ n . this result is derived by noting that the variance of the frequency difference is twice the variance of the mean for a single pool of n individuals . the allele frequency variance for an individual is p ( 1 − p )/ 2 , and averaging over the n individuals reduces the variance by the factor n . under the alternative hypothesis , the expected allele frequency difference δp is δ p = p u − p l = σ g [ θ u ( g )− θ l ( g )] p g where the genotype - dependent allele frequency p g is 1 for g = a 1 a 1 , 0 . 5 for a 1 a 2 , and 0 for a 2 a 2 . the variance is σ 1 2 / n , where σ 1 2 is obtained from the multinomial distribution ( beyer , 1984 ), σ 1 2 = σ g [ θ u ( g )+ θ l ( g )] p g 2 −( p u 2 + p l 2 ). the number of individuals required per pool for type i error α and power 1 − β is n =[ z ασ 0 − z 1 − β σ 1 ] 2 / δp 2 . for affected - unaffected pools , n = n / r is the required sample size . for tail pools , n = n / ρ , and ρ is varied to find the smallest n . the normal approximation underestimates the sample size requirement relative to the exact results from the multinomial distribution . when the sum of the alleles in both pools is at least 60 , the difference in sample sizes is no greater than 5 %. we chose 60 alleles in both pools as the criterion for switching from the multinomial to the normal calculation . standard algorithms were employed to perform the root search for x u and x l , the optimization , and the integration over the tail of a normal distribution ( press , 1997 ). the analytic results are obtained by setting σ 1 2 to σ 0 2 and expanding δp to second order in the effect size μ g , corresponding loosely to a perturbation theory for probability distributions ( chandler , 1987 ). from a taylor series expansion , where y =( 2π ) − 1 / 2 exp (− z 2 / 2 ). substituting this result into the expressions for θ ( g ) using b = μ g / σ r and z = x u / σ r = φ − 1 ( 1 − ρ ), where x is the threshold used to select the pool , yields for the tail design p u = p +( y / ρ ) e [( μ g / σ r ) p g ]+( y | z |/ 2ρ ) e [( μ g / σ r ) 2 p g ] and p l = p −( y / ρ ) e [( μ g / σ r ) p g ]+( y | z |/ 2ρ ) e [( μ g / σ r ) 2 p g ]. the corresponding results for the affected - unaffected pools , with z = φ − 1 ( 1 − r ), are p u = p +( y / r ) e [( μ g / σ r ) p g ]+( y | z |/ 2 r ) e [( μ g / σ r ) 2 p g ] and p l = p −[ y /( 1 − r )] e [( μ g / σ r ) p g ]−[ y | z |/ 2 ( 1 − r )] e [( μ g / σ r ) 2 p g ]. e [ μ g p g ]= σ g p ( g ) μ g p g = σ a [ p ( 1 − p )/ 2 ] 1 / 2 , and e [ μ g 2 p g ]= σ g p ( g ) μ g 2 p g =( 1 / 2 )( 1 − σ r 2 )− 4 p 2 ( 1 − p ) 2 ad +( 2 p − 1 ) σ d 2 / 2 ≈ σ a 2 / 2 . δ p = 2 1 / 2 yσ 0 σ a / ρσ r , tail pools , and δ p =[ 1 + x t σ a / 2 3 / 2 σ 0 σ r 2 ] yσ 0 σ a / 2 1 / 2 r ( 1 − r ) σ r , affected - unaffected pools , approximate genotype relative risks may also be obtained from the taylor series expansion for θ ( g ). to lowest order , the relative risk for the heterozygote is approximately 1 +( d + a ) y / rσ r , and for the a 1 a 1 homozygote is 1 + 2ay / rσ r . for additive inheritance , d = 0 , and the relative risk is multiplicative with allele dose when ay / rσ r is small . for a complex trait σ r is close to 1 , and for a minor allele , a ≈ σ a /( 2p ) 1 / 2 . when the disease incidence is 10 %, the parameter required to be small is 1 . 24σ a / p 1 / 2 . for individual genotyping , the regression model used to test significance is where the residual contribution ε to the phenotype has zero mean and is uncorrelated with p g . using standard statistical methods ( snedecor , 1989 ), the test statistic b 1 under the null hypothesis has mean zero and variance var ( b 1 | null ) given by var ( b 1 | null )= n − 1 var ( x )/ var ( p g )= 1 / n [ p ( 1 − p )/ 2 ]. e ( b 1 )= cov ( x , p g )/ var ( x )= σ a [ p ( 1 − p )/ 2 ] 1 / 2 , var ( b 1 | alt )= n − 1 var ( ε )/ var ( p g )= σ r 2 / n [ p ( 1 − p )/ 2 ]. the sample size required for a one - sided test of b 1 with type i error α and power 1 − β is n =[ z α var ( b 1 | null ) 1 / 2 − z 1 − β var ( b 1 | alt ) 1 / 2 ] 2 / e ( b 1 ) 2 , the sample sizes required for the pooled dna designs are compared in fig1 to the sample size n indiv required by individual genotyping . the ratio n c - c / n indiv ( dashed line ) is a function of the disease incidence r , while n tail / n indiv ( solid line ) is a function of the pooling fraction ρ . for typical disease incidence , r ˜ 10 %, the affected - unaffected design requires a sample 5 . 3 × larger than that required for individual genotyping . compared to the tail design , it measures an allele frequency difference that is half as large and is approximately 4 × less efficient . the tail design , with ρ = 27 %, requires a sample only 1 . 24 × larger than required for individual genotyping . the tail design is also robust to variation in ρ near its optimum , as values from 19 % to 37 % drop the efficiency no more than 5 %. the analytic theory indicates that the additive variance σ a 2 , or equivalently the genotype relative risk for an allele of known frequency , is the most important factor determining the sample size requirements . this dependence is shown in fig2 a with exact numerical results for affected - unaffected pools ( dashed line ) and tail pools ( solid line ) for type i error of 5 × 10 − 8 and power of 0 . 8 . the minor allele frequency is 10 %, its effect on the quantitative phenotype is purely additive , and the disease incidence is 10 %. the analytic approximations ( solid circles ) from eq . 1 and 2 are nearly indistinguishable from the exact results when the genotype relative risk drops below a factor of 2 . as predicted by the analytic theory , the tail pools require smaller sample sizes than the affected - unaffected pools , and the gap grows wider for alleles with a smaller effect on the phenotype . for relative risks of 2 to 5 , the deviations from analytic theory are moderate ; above a relative risk of 5 , the phenotype is monogenic with respect to locus g , and the analytic approximations for complex traits are no longer valid . the allele frequency difference between pools at the significance threshold is shown in fig2 b for affected - unaffected pools ( dashed line ) and tail pools ( solid line ). the measurement error in the allele frequency difference must be smaller than the significance threshold to detect association ( darvasi , 1994 ). evaluations that provide a frequency difference measurement accurate to 0 . 04 can detect association with alleles responsible for 1 % of the total phenotypic variance , corresponding to a heterozygote relative risk of 1 . 5 . the allele frequency difference measurement must be accurate to 0 . 01 to detect association with an allele explaining 0 . 1 % of the phenotypic variance , corresponding to a relative risk of 1 . 14 . to test the range of validity of the analytic estimates for pooling , we performed a series of exact calculations of sample size requirements as a function of p and d / a . large deviations were seen only when the magnitude of a gene effect μ g approached σ r in size , or , equivalently , when σ a 2 was larger than the minor allele frequency or when a genotype relative risk was larger than 5 ( results not shown ). for additive contributions from a minor allele , the range of validity corresponds to σ a 2 & lt ; 2p . the advantages of the methods disclosed herein include the following . the optimal fraction for tail pooling , 27 %, is independent of all model parameters including allele frequency , inheritance mode , effect size , and type i error and power , for virtually any qtl contributing to a complex trait . the exceptions to this finding are rare qtls with relative risks of 5 or greater , and rare , recessive alleles , both of which are more difficult to detect than more frequent alleles contributing to the same overall phenotypic variance . in addition , the tail design is approximately 4 - 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