Opinion ID: 1998065
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 8

Heading: Weight of Categories

Text: The Scale is divided into four basic categories. The first two categories, Seriousness of Offense and Offense History, are considered static categories because they relate to the registrant's prior criminal conduct. The factors comprising Seriousness of Offense category include: degree of force, degree of contact, and age of victim. The factors comprising the Offense History category include: victim selection, number of offenses/victims, duration of offensive behavior, length of time since last offense, and history of anti-social acts. The remaining two categories, Characteristics of Offender and Community Support are considered to be dynamic categories, because they are evidenced by current conditions. The factors constituting the Characteristics of Offender category include response to treatment and substance abuse. The final category, Community Support, measures the registrant's therapeutic support, residential support, and employment/educational stability. Each of the Scale's thirteen factors is assigned a risk level: low risk (=0), moderate risk (=1), or high risk (=3). The total for all levels within a category provides a score that is then weighted based on the particular category. The point total of the Seriousness of Crime category, which is designed to predict the nature of any re-offense, if it occurs, is multiplied by five. The Offense History, Characteristics of Offender, and Community Support categories are multiplied by three, two, and one respectively. The registrant and amici contend that both the static factors are weighted too heavily in the Scale. Further, they assert that the dynamic factors, those that emphasize the subjectiveness of the offender and reflect his recent behavior, are not given sufficient importance in the Scale. Various amici contend that the Scale fails to give proper consideration to assessments of an offender's characteristics and post-sentence behavior. In addition, several amici argue that, in order to accurately predict risk of re-offense, any scale should be combined with a clinical interview of the offender. A Committee of mental health professionals and legal experts (Committee) developed the Scale. They examined risk assessment scales being used in the United States and Canada. After reviewing the scientific literature, the Committee selected for inclusion in the Scale those factors that met two conditions. First, all of the factors selected had to be empirically supported in the risk assessment field as criteria positively related to the risk of re-offense. Second, all of the factors selected had to be fairly concrete criteria that could be gathered in a consistent and reliable manner. In preparing the Scale, the Committee also conducted clinical interviews. Criteria that were too cumbersome, too expensive to ascertain, or too difficult to gather in a reliable manner were not used. The Committee's decision to weight the static factors, particularly the Seriousness of Offense category, higher than the dynamic factors is consistent with the majority of scientific literature in this area. See, e.g., Vernon L. Quinsey et al., Predicting Sexual Offenses, in Assessing Dangerousness, 114 (Jacquelyn C. Campbell ed., 1995); Joseph J. Ranero & Linda Meyer Williams, Recidivism Among Convicted Sex Offenders: A 10-Year Followup Study, 49 Federal Probation 58 (1985); Frank Tracy et al., Program Evaluation: Recidivism Research Involving Sex Offenders, in the Sexual Aggressor, 198 (Joanne G. Greer & Irving D. Stuart eds., 1993). Most studies show that the static factors used in the Scale are the best predictors of risk of re-offense. Ibid. Risk assessment experts generally agree that the best predictor of a registrant's future criminal sexual behavior is his or her prior criminal record. We emphasize that the focus on prior offenses is not due to any attempt at punishment but is rather a scientific attempt to better protect the public safety from registrants likely to re-offend. Although the static factors are weighted the highest, the Scale also includes various dynamic factors, such as the registrant's likely response to treatment, residential support, employment/educational stability, and therapeutic support. Those factors were weighted less heavily in the Scale because the scientific literature generally shows that they are not as good predictors of risk of re-offense as are the static factors. Ibid. Although the weights assigned to the categories in the Scale have not been scientifically proven to be valid, the State has produced sufficient evidence to convince us that the factors used in the Scale are reliable predictors of recidivism and are weighted in the Scale according to their relative effectiveness as predictors. The greater weight attached to the static categories is in accord with expert opinion on criminal sexual behavior. Cf. W.P. v. Poritz, supra, at 1222 (finding that higher weight accorded to past offenses does not violate due process). Although using both the Scale and clinical interviews of registrants may on some occasions provide a more accurate prediction of risk of re-offense than use of the Scale alone, the Committee decided that clinical interviews of each registrant were not necessary. That decision was based on scientific literature that showed that the use of actuarial concrete predictors is at least as good, if not in most cases better, in terms of reliability and predictability than clinical interviews. After conducting a cost-benefit analysis of requiring clinical interviews of each offender, the Committee determined that the minimal improvement in predictability that might be gained by using clinical interviews could not justify the high cost associated with conducting such interviews for each registrant. Based on the record presented, that decision appears reasonable. The registrant and amici curiae also question whether the new guidelines properly consider whether psychological or psychiatric profiles indicate a high risk of recidivism. N.J.S.A. 2C:7-8b(5). That concern is part of the larger problem of what role expert testimony related to psychological or psychiatric profiles should play in Megan's Law cases. In In re G.B., 286 N.J. Super. 396, 407, 669 A. 2d 303 (1996), the Appellate Division was persuaded, in light of the circumstances surrounding the offense, to remand the case to permit the registrant to present expert testimony demonstrating that the variable factors that related to him should result in a lower tier classification. We granted the State's petition of certification, 143 N.J. 328, 670 A. 2d 1068 (1996), limited solely to the issue of the use of experts in a Megan's Law hearing. Accordingly, we defer our decision with respect to expert testimony, including psychological and psychiatric testimony, until we have an opportunity to hear that case. We do suggest, however, that the Attorney General be prepared to show that the State has properly responded to the Court's directive in Doe v. Poritz, supra, 142 N.J. at 24, n. 5, 662 A. 2d 367, that in the court-mandated revised guidelines psychological or psychiatric profiles be considered in support of a low-risk assessment as well as a high-risk assessment.