Opinion ID: 2588468
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 3

Heading: Actuarial Instruments

Text: The final issue presented by two of the petitioners is whether actuarial instruments may be admitted to aid in the prediction of future dangerousness and, if these instruments are admitted, the appropriate test of their reliability. In greatly simplified terms, there are two broad approaches to conducting risk assessments: clinical judgment or actuarial assessment. See generally Dennis M. Doren, Using Risk Assessment Instrumentation, in Evaluating Sex Offenders: A Manual for Civil Commitments and Beyond ch. 5, at 103 (2002). The clinical approach requires evaluators to consider a wide range of risk factors and then form an overall opinion concerning future dangerousness. The actuarial approach evaluates a limited set of predictors and then combines these variables using a predetermined, numerical weighting system to determine future risk of reoffense which may be adjusted (or not) by expert evaluators considering potentially important factors not included in the actuarial measure. Actuarial approaches use statistical analysis to identify a number of risk factors that assist in the prediction of future dangerousness. Because actuarial models are based on statistical analysis of small sample sizes, they have a variety of potential predictive shortcomings. See generally Harry M. Hoberman, Dangerousness and Sex Offenders Assessing Risk for Future Sex Offenses, in 2 The Sexual Predator (Anita Schlank ed., 2001). However, despite their potential statistical limitations, some experts have called for the complete rejection of clinical assessment in favor of purely actuarial assessment. See Vernon L. Quinsey et al., Fifteen Arguments Against Actuarial Risk Appraisal, in Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk 171 (1998). The crux of the parties' arguments is whether actuarial instruments should be viewed as novel scientific evidence. Strauss argues that actuarial instruments are novel scientific evidence. [11] If so, the standard we apply in Washington to determine whether evidence based on novel scientific procedures is admissible is that set forth in Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013, 1014 (D.C.Cir. 1923). The Frye standard requires a trial court to determine whether a scientific theory or principle `has achieved general acceptance in the relevant scientific community' before admitting it into evidence. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 56, 857 P.2d 989 (quoting State v. Martin, 101 Wash.2d 713, 719, 684 P.2d 651 (1984)). `[T]he core concern ... is only whether the evidence being offered is based on established scientific methodology.' Young, 122 Wash.2d at 56, 857 P.2d 989 (quoting State v. Cauthron, 120 Wash.2d 879, 889, 846 P.2d 502 (1993)). The State contends actuarial instruments are not novel scientific evidence, so the trial court need not conduct a Frye hearing. The State asserts the methods and procedures used to construct actuarial instruments are well accepted in the scientific community and that Strauss' arguments go to weight rather than admissibility. Finally, the State contends Strauss did not preserve this error through objection at trial. The Washington Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (WATSA) joins the State, arguing that actuarial instruments anchor their risk assessments. [12] Moreover, WATSA argues the proof of the scientific community's acceptance of actuarial instruments is that the failure to use such instruments constitutes an ethical violation for its members. If the State and WATSA's contentions are correct, the use of these instruments as an aid to expert opinion testimony should be assessed under ER 702 and ER 703. State v. Baity, 140 Wash.2d 1, 10, 991 P.2d 1151 (2000). We agree with the State and WATSA. On two prior occasions, we have accepted evidence of predictions of future dangerousness in SVP commitment hearings as based on established scientific methodology and declined to require a separate hearing under Frye. First, in Young, we examined clinical predictions of future dangerousness. We held an independent Frye determination unnecessary because predictions of dangerousness do not violate due process. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 56, 857 P.2d 989. We accepted the uncertainty surrounding psychiatric predictions and found them amenable to due process with procedural safeguards and a heavy burden of proof. In re Harris, 98 Wash.2d 276, 280-81, 654 P.2d 109 (1982). We also relied upon the fact that such predictions had previously been used to impose exceptional sentencing in sex offender cases. See State v. Pryor, 115 Wash.2d 445, 454, 799 P.2d 244 (1990). We viewed this as an analogous proposition already deemed admissible under Frye. Consequently, we held an independent evidentiary analysis unnecessary. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 56-57, 857 P.2d 989. The second occasion in which we examined the scientific basis for predicting future dangerousness was In re Detention of Campbell, 139 Wash.2d 341, 355, 986 P.2d 771 (1999). Campbell challenged the prediction of future dangerousness both as inadmissible profile evidence and as inadmissible under Frye /ER 702. [13] The essence of Campbell's argument was that the State's expert testimony on dangerousness, which was based on clinical assessment, should have been excluded due to the superiority of actuarial assessment. [14] We disagreed and rejected Campbell's arguments under the precedents of our Young decision and the United States Supreme Court's decision in Barefoot v. Estelle, 463 U.S. 880, 896-903, 103 S.Ct. 3383, 77 L.Ed.2d 1090 (1983) (holding predictions of future dangerousness should be admitted and evaluated by the fact finder). We concluded differences in opinion, which Campbell argued demonstrated the unreliability of the expert's testimony, went to the weight of the evidence rather than to its admissibility. Campbell, 139 Wash.2d at 358, 986 P.2d 771. Based on our established precedent, we reiterate that the Frye standard has been satisfied by both clinical and actuarial determinations of future dangerousness. Our conclusion is similar to that of other jurisdictions, which have upheld the use of actuarial assessments. Relying upon the thorough analysis of the New Jersey Court of Appeals, the New Jersey Supreme Court concluded actuarial risk assessment instruments may be admissible in evidence in a civil commitment proceeding under the SVPA when such tools are used in the formation of the basis for a testifying expert's opinion concerning the future dangerousness of a sex offender. In re Commitment of R.S., 173 N.J. 134, 801 A.2d 219, 221 (2002); In re C.A., 146 N.J. 71, 679 A.2d 1153 (1996) (holding Frye inapplicable to actuarial device unique to New Jersey SVPA); accord State v. Fields, 201 Ariz. 321, 35 P.3d 82 (2001) (holding Frye inapplicable to predictions of future dangerousness based upon actuarial instruments). We agree with the supreme courts of New Jersey and Arizona. We hold Strauss's arguments go to the weight of the evidence rather than its admissibility and are to be assessed under ER 702 and ER 703. The second challenge to the use of actuarial assessments is advanced by Johnson, who argues that actuarial instruments are inadmissible profiling tools because they do nothing more than assign values to characteristics in an effort to fit an individual within a profile. [15] Johnson argues we have defined and excluded inadmissible profile testimony as evidence that merely identifies a person as a member of a group likely to commit a crime. State v. Petrich, 101 Wash.2d 566, 576, 683 P.2d 173 (1984); In re Marriage of Luckey, 73 Wash.App. 201, 208, 868 P.2d 189 (1994); State v. Braham, 67 Wash.App. 930, 936, 841 P.2d 785 (1992); State v. Maule, 35 Wash.App. 287, 293, 667 P.2d 96 (1983); State v. Claflin, 38 Wash.App. 847, 690 P.2d 1186 (1984). Johnson contends actuarial evidence unquestionably fits squarely within the definition of profile testimony [16] and is thus inadmissible. The State refutes this argument with the admissible nature of expert testimony on dangerousness. The State argues if such testimony is admissible, then actuarial models, which it asserts are more reliable than clinical judgment, should be equally admissible. We are persuaded by the State's arguments. The circumstances of the testimony at issue under our profiling jurisprudence are distinguishable from those here. We have clearly rooted our rejection of profile testimony in ER 403, ER 702, and ER 703. Under ER 403, we have determined that profile testimony should be excluded because its potential for prejudice is significant compared to its minimal probative value. Petrich, 101 Wash.2d at 576, 683 P.2d 173; Braham, 67 Wash.App. at 939, 841 P.2d 785 (testimony on SVP grooming behaviors similar to conduct of defendant inadmissible under ER 403); Claflin, 38 Wash.App. at 852, 690 P.2d 1186 (testimony that 43 percent of child molestation cases reported to have been committed by father figures inadmissible under ER 403). Other profile testimony has been rejected under ER 702 and ER 703. In Marriage of Luckey, an expert testified that he had administered the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory to the father in a custody dispute and concluded that the father's scaled scores matched the profiles of known child molesters. Marriage of Luckey, 73 Wash.App. at 204, 868 P.2d 189. The Court of Appeals affirmed the trial court's exclusion of this evidence under ER 702 and ER 703. Marriage of Luckey, 73 Wash.App. at 204, 868 P.2d 189; Maule, 35 Wash.App. at 293, 667 P.2d 96 (holding ER 702 and ER 703 excluded testimony by expert that the majority of child sexual abuse cases involve a male parent-figure). Testimony regarding the future dangerousness of SVPs, by its nature, is prejudicial. The purpose of the testimony, after all, is to assist the fact finder in determining whether the SVP is likely to commit future violent acts. The correct standard balances the potential for unfair prejudice against the evidence's probative value. The probative value of this testimony is high and directly relevant to whether an individual should be committed as a sexually violent predator. Consequently, we have already rejected challenges to predictions of future dangerousness under ER 403. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 53, 857 P.2d 989. We concluded it was not reversible error for the court to admit evidence of prior criminal activity to predict future dangerousness because the likelihood of continued violence on the part of these individuals was central to the determination of whether they should be committed under the SVPA. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 53, 857 P.2d 989. Similarly, we have already accepted expert predictions of future violence central to the ultimate question here: whether petitioners suffer from a mental abnormality or personality disorder. Young, 122 Wash.2d at 58, 857 P.2d 989. We hold that actuarial assessments, which satisfy the requirements of ER 403, ER 702, and ER 703 are admissible and not profile evidence.