Opinion ID: 2382857
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 49

Heading: Cases with a Similar Likelihood of Receiving a Death Sentence (Index of Outcomes Measure)

Text: The majority also applies the Master's index-of-outcomes method of constituting comparison groups. The index method recognizes that there may not be enough cases on all fours with the case under review to conduct a reliable proportionality review. To compensate, the method gathers a group of cases that are similar in terms of culpability but not necessarily similar in terms of their factual contexts. The Master's index is based on empirical evidence of the types of factual characteristics that best explain sentencing outcomes. Using a statistical technique called multiple regression analysis, each factor is weighted according to its tendency to induce juries to sentence defendants to death. Each case is given a score based on the factors present. Cases then are arranged in order of their scores, and cases with similar scores (near neighbors) are chosen to form a comparison group. The index method is designed to generate a group of cases that may be quite disparate factually but quite similar in their overall levels of culpability. According to the Master, with the index method it is possible to determine the relative culpability of different defendants based on the case characteristics that, on a statistical basis, best explain which defendants actually received death sentences. Final Report, supra, at 87. Because I have reservations concerning the index method for creating comparison groups, I would tend to emphasize the more straightforward methods for constructing comparison groups that involve the identification of salient factors. As noted, the Master's index is based on a multiple regression that identifies what factors tend to persuade juries to impose the death penalty and what factors do not. For that sort of multiple regression to work with any accuracy, a substantial number of juries must have returned death verdicts. If there are only three or four death verdicts, conducting the multiple regression analysis may be pointless. The Master addressed that problem by mislabeling over thirty life-sentenced cases as death-sentenced cases. See Final Report, supra, Appendix B. In doing so, he created enough data to make an analysis feasible, but he also created an analysis that may not identify accurately the factors that sway juries in the system that uses the rules the Court has laid down. Stated simply, too few death verdicts issued by properly instructed juries may exist for anyone to know what factors tend to induce such juries to return death verdicts. Because the majority seems to rely in part on the index method of forming comparison groups, I review the results those groups produce notwithstanding my concerns regarding the methodology used to create them. I include two sets of results, one using only statutorily enumerated aggravating and mitigating factors, the other using factors that have little obvious relationship to the factors enumerated in the statute.