Opinion ID: 2632447
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Adequacy of the FEIR's Water Supply Analysis

Text: Plaintiffs contend the FEIR is deficient in that it fails to identify the actual source of most of the water needed to fill the project's long-term demand, an analytical gap that serves to obscure the undisclosed environmental impacts of the project. The County's assurance, through the FEIR's mitigation measure WS-1, that development entitlements will not be granted until agreements and financing for water supplies are in place does not remedy the deficiency, plaintiffs argue. Rather, the promise of future environmental analysis merely sidesteps the County's obligation to disclose and consider the impacts of supplying water to the entire planned Sunrise Douglas project at the outset, before approving that project. Moreover, plaintiffs maintain, insofar as the FEIR relies' on mitigation measures proposed in the Water Forum Proposal, those are legally inadequate to support approval of the Sunrise Douglas project because they have not been embodied in a legally enforceable agreement. Relying in part on the FEIR's use of information drawn from the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR, the Court of Appeal held the FEIR's treatment of water sources and impacts satisfied CEQA's requirements. The identified sources were not speculative, although they were not completed. Unlike the reliance on illusory supplies condemned in earlier appellate decisions, the Court of Appeal concluded, here the FEIR identified and assessed the impacts of using  future water supplies. Real parties and Rancho Cordova, similarly, contend the FEIR adequately identified and addressed future water supplies. CEQA, Rancho Cordova argues, requires only that the County use its best efforts to disclose all that [it] reasonably could, not to actually secure a water source and work out all the uncertainties and competing demands before an environmental review would be adequate.
The fundamental purpose of an EIR is to provide public agencies and the public in general with detailed information about the effect which a proposed project is likely to have on the environment. (§ 21061.) To that end, the EIR shall include a detailed statement setting forth ... [a]ll significant effects on the environment of the proposed project. (§ 21100, subd. (b)(1).) It is common ground for the parties and the lower court that the EIR in this case was required to analyze the effects of providing water to this large housing and commercial development, and that in order to do so the EIR had, in some manner, to identify the planned sources of that water. The principal disputed issue is how firmly future water supplies for a proposed project must be identified or, to put the question in reverse, what level of uncertainty regarding the availability of water supplies can be tolerated in an EIR for a land use plan. Neither CEQA itself, nor the CEQA Guidelines, [5] nor any of this court's decisions address this question specifically. On a general level, section 15144 of the CEQA Guidelines (Cal.Code Regs., tit. 14), addressing the need to forecast future events in an EIR, states that [w]hile foreseeing the unforeseeable is not possible, an agency must use its best efforts to find out and disclose all that it reasonably can. We endorsed this view in Laurel Heights I, supra, 47 Cal.3d at pages 398-399, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278, explaining that an EIR must address the impacts of reasonably foreseeable future activities related to the proposed project. The Courts of Appeal, however, have in several decisions specifically addressed the sufficiency of an EIR's analysis of future water supplies. In Santiago County Water Dist. v. County of Orange (1981) 118 Cal.App.3d 818, 173 Cal.Rptr. 602, the EIR for a proposed mining project stated that the mine would consume 12,000 to 15,000 gallons of water daily and that the local water district would supply it, but provided no information as to the impacts on water service elsewhere of supplying that amount of water to the mine. ( Id. at pp. 830-831, 173 Cal.Rptr. 602.) The Court of Appeal held that without any facts from which to evaluate the pros and cons of supplying the [needed] amount of water to the mine ( id. at p. 829, 173 Cal.Rptr. 602), the EIR was inadequate. Long-term supplies for a large projecta residential community and resort to be developed over 25 yearswere addressed in Stanislaus Natural Heritage Project v. County of Stanislaus (1996) 48 Cal. App.4th 182, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625 ( Stanislaus Natural Heritage ). The EIR noted that `[a] firm water supply has not yet been established beyond the first five years of development, although the applicant is pursuing several sources.' ( Id. at p. 195, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625.) Although the EIR listed several possible sources of long-term water supply ( id. at p. 194, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625), it provided no analysis of the likelihood of their materializing and their environmental impacts if employed. Instead, the EIR deferred such analysis to future environmental review of water acquisitions or detailed project-level review for future phases of development, providing as a mitigation measure that if the applicant failed to demonstrate and analyze the impacts of future water supplies, further phases of the development would not be approved. ( Id. at p. 195, 55 Cal. Rptr.2d 625.) The appellate court held this treatment of future water supplies defeated CEQA's fundamental informational purpose. Before approving a specific plan for an entire development, the decision makers must be informed of the intended source or sources of water for the project, what the impact will be if supplied from a particular source or possible sources and if that impact is adverse how it will be addressed. ( Stanislaus Natural Heritage, supra, 48 Cal. App.4th at p. 206, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625.) CEQA, the court recognized, permits the environmental analysis for long-term, multipart projects to be tiered, so that the broad overall impacts analyzed in an EIR at the first-tier programmatic level need not be reassessed as each of the project's subsequent, narrower phases is approved, [6] but tiering is not a device for deferring the identification of significant environmental impacts that the adoption of a specific plan can be expected to cause. ( Stanislaus Natural Heritage, at p. 199, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625.) Nor can the unanalyzed impacts of unknown water sources be mitigated by providing that if water proves unavailable, the project's future phases will not be built: While it might be argued that not building a portion of the project is the ultimate mitigation, it must be borne in mind that the EIR must address the project and assumes the project will be built. ( Id. at p. 206, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625.) In Santa Clarita Organization for Planning the Environment v. County of Los Angeles (2003) 106 Cal.App.4th 715, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186 ( Santa Clarita ), the EIR for a residential and commercial development project, for which the Castaic Lake Water Agency (Castaic) was to supply water, relied for analysis of cumulative development impacts on Castaic receiving its full entitlement of 54,200 afa from the State Water Project and purchasing an additional 41,000 afa in State Water Project water rights from another agency. ( Id. at pp. 718-719, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186.) Quoting another appellate court's recent observation that because the State Water Project had never been fully constructed there is a huge gap between what is promised and what can be delivered, rendering State Water Project entitlements nothing more than hopes, expectations, water futures or, as the parties refer to them, `paper water' ( Planning & Conservation League v. Department of Water Resources (2000) 83 Cal.App.4th 892, 908, fn. 5, 100 Cal.Rptr.2d 173), the Santa Clarita court held the EIR's water supply discussion was inadequate because of its assumption that 100 percent of Castaic's State Water Project entitlement would be available to Castaic. ( Santa Clarita, at p. 722, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186; see also California Oak Foundation v. City of Santa Clarita (2005) 133 Cal.App.4th 1219, 1238-1239, 1244, 35 Cal.Rptr.3d 434 ( California Oak ) [disapproving EIR for an industrial park because the water supply analysis relied, without adequate consideration of the attendant uncertainties, on Castaic's purchase of 41,000 afa in imported State Water Project water].) Finally, Napa Citizens for Honest Government v. Napa County Bd. of Supervisors (2001) 91 Cal.App.4th 342, 110 Cal. Rptr.2d 579 ( Napa Citizens ) considered the closely related issue of what constitutes an adequate discussion of contingencies in case the anticipated water supplies for a land use project fail to materialize. The EIR for an industrial development project in Napa County stated that water would be supplied by the City of American Canyon, which already supplied other users in the area. American Canyon's water sources were adequate for planned growth in the short term, but in the longer term would fall short unless that city was able to purchase additional water from the City of Vallejo, as it was trying to do. The EIR assumed that purchase would go through and therefore found the project's demand for water would have no significant impact. ( Id. at p. 372, 110 Cal. Rptr.2d 579.) The appellate court held the EIR inadequate for not disclosing possible alternative water sources and their impacts. In light of the uncertainty regarding American Canyon's future supplies, the EIR cannot simply label the possibility that they will not materialize as `speculative,' and decline to address it. The County should be informed if other sources exist, and be informed, in at least general terms, of the environmental consequences of tapping such resources. ( Id. at p. 373, 110 Cal.Rptr.2d 579.) While these decisions state no definitive standard of certainty for analysis of future water supplies, they do articulate certain principles for analytical adequacy under CEQA, principles with which we agree. First, CEQA's informational purposes are not satisfied by an EIR that simply ignores or assumes a solution to the problem of supplying water to a proposed land use project. Decision makers must, under the law, be presented with sufficient facts to evaluate the pros and cons of supplying the amount of water that the [project] will need. ( Santiago County Water Dist. v. County of Orange, supra, 118 Cal.App.3d at p. 829, 173 Cal.Rptr. 602.) Second, an adequate environmental impact analysis for a large project, to be built and occupied over a number of years, cannot be limited to the water supply for the first stage or the first few years. While proper tiering of environmental review allows an agency to defer analysis of certain details of later phases of long-term linked or complex projects until those phases are up for approval, CEQA's demand for meaningful information is not satisfied by simply stating information will be provided in the future. ( Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal.App.4th at p. 723, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186.) As the CEQA Guidelines explain: Tiering does not excuse the lead agency from adequately analyzing reasonably foreseeable significant environmental impacts of the project and does not justify deferring such analysis to a later tier EIR or negative declaration. (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 14, § 15152, subd. (b).) Tiering is properly used to defer analysis of environmental impacts and mitigation measures to later phases when the impacts or mitigation measures are not determined by the first-tier approval decision but are specific to the later phases. For example, to evaluate or formulate mitigation for site specific effects such as aesthetics or parking ( id., § 15152 [Discussion]) may be impractical when an entire large project is first approved; under some circumstances analysis of such impacts might be deferred to a later tier EIR. [7] But the future water sources for a large land use project and the impacts of exploiting those sources are not the type of information that can be deferred for future analysis. An EIR evaluating a planned land use project must assume that all phases of the project will eventually be built and will need water, and must analyze, to the extent reasonably possible, the impacts of providing water to the entire proposed project. ( Stanislaus Natural Heritage, supra, 48 Cal.App.4th at p. 206, 55 Cal. Rptr.2d 625.) Third, the future water supplies identified and analyzed must bear a likelihood of actually proving available; speculative sources and unrealistic allocations (paper water) are insufficient bases for decision-making under CEQA. ( Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal.App.4th at pp. 720-723, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186.) An EIR for a land use project must address the impacts of likely future water sources, and the EIR's discussion must include a reasoned analysis of the circumstances affecting the likelihood of the water's availability. ( California Oak, supra, 133 Cal.App.4th at p. 1244, 35 Cal.Rptr.3d 434.) Finally, where even a full discussion leaves some uncertainty regarding actual availability of the anticipated future water sources, CEQA requires some discussion of possible replacement sources or alternatives to use of the anticipated water, and of the environmental consequences of those contingencies. ( Napa Citizens, supra, 91 Cal.App.4th at p. 373, 110 Cal.Rptr.2d 579.) The law's informational demands may not be met, in this context, simply by providing that future development will not proceed if the anticipated water supply fails to materialize. But when an EIR makes a sincere and reasoned attempt to analyze the water sources the project is likely to use, but acknowledges the remaining uncertainty, a measure for curtailing development if the intended sources fail to materialize may play a role in the impact analysis. (See id. at p. 374,110 Cal.Rptr.2d 579.) Significantly, none of the Court of Appeal decisions on point holds or suggests that an EIR for a land use plan is inadequate unless it demonstrates that the project is definitely assured water through signed, enforceable agreements with a provider and already built or approved treatment and delivery facilities. Requiring certainty when a long-term, large-scale development project is initially approved would likely be unworkable, as it would require water planning to far outpace land use planning. Indeed, one appellate court has held that speculative water planning, in which water is developed before the need for it has been finally determined, itself violates CEQA. ( County of Amador v. El Dorado County Water Agency, supra, 76 Cal.App.4th at p. 950, 91 Cal. Rptr.2d 66 [water project should not have been approved before county's general plan was adopted and the impacts of planned growth in land use were analyzed].) Examination of other state statutes specifically addressing the coordination of land use and water planning supports our conclusion CEQA should not be understood to require assurances of certainty regarding long-term future water supplies at an early phase of planning for large land development projects. Pertinent are two measures enacted in 2001 to ensure that local land use authorities will thoroughly consider the availability of water supplies before approving major new developments. (Tepper, New Water Requirements for Large-Scale Developments (Jan.2005) 27 L.A. Law. 18, 20.) Government Code section 66473.7 generally requires a city or county, before approving a subdivision map for a residential development of more than 500 units, to obtain from the applicable public water system a written verification that adequate water supplies will be available for that project as well as other existing and planned future uses for a projected 20-year period. When the verification rests on supplies not yet available to the water provider, it is to be based on firm indications the water will be available in the future, including written contracts for water rights, approved financing programs for delivery facilities, and the regulatory approvals required to construct infrastructure and deliver the water. ( Id., subd. (d).) The subdivision map may be approved only if the water system verifies, or the city or county finds on substantial evidence, that water supplies will be adequate. ( Id., subd. (b); see Tepper, New Water Requirements for Large-Scale Developments, supra, 27 L.A. Law. at p. 20.) While the verification or finding is required as a condition of subdivision approval, [n]othing in this section shall preclude the [local] legislative body ... from making the determinations required in this section earlier than the subdivision approval stage. (Gov.Code, § 66473.7, subd. ( l ).) Water Code sections 10910 to 10912, enacted in 1995 but substantially amended in 2001, apply more broadly to any large land use project (not only residential developments) and to approval of any such project subject to CEQA (not only to subdivision map approvals). (Wat.Code, §§ 10910, subd. (a), 10912, subds. (a), (b).) They require the city or county considering a project to obtain, at the outset of the CEQA process, a water supply assessment from the applicable public water system. (Wat.Code, § 10910, subd. (b).) The water supply assessment is then to be included in any CEQA document the city or county prepares for the project. (Wat.Code, § 10911, subd. (b).) [8] With regard to existing supply entitlements and rights, a water supply assessment must include assurances such as written contracts, capital outlay programs and regulatory approvals for facilities construction (paralleling the assurances Gov.Code, § 66473.7, subd. (d) requires for future water), but as to additional future supplies needed to serve the project, the assessment need include only the public water system's plans for acquiring the additional supplies, including cost and time estimates and regulatory approvals the system anticipates needing. (Wat.Code, §§ 10910, subd. (d)(2), 10911, subd. (a).) Taken together, Water Code sections 10910 to 10912 and Government Code section 66473.7 thus demand, as amicus curiae Association of California Water Agencies explains, that water supplies must be identified with more specificity at each step as land use planning and water supply planning move forward from general phases to more specific phases. The plans and estimates that Water Code section 10910 mandates for future water supplies at the time of any approval subject to CEQA must, under Government Code section 66473.7, be replaced by firm assurances at the subdivision map approval stage. To interpret CEQA itself as requiring such firm assurances of future water supplies at relatively early stages of the land use planning and approval process would put CEQA in tension with these more specific water planning statutes. Consistent with the foregoing, we emphasize that the burden of identifying likely water sources for a project varies with the stage of project approval involved; the necessary degree of confidence involved for approval of a conceptual plan is much lower than for issuance of building permits. The ultimate question under CEQA, moreover, is not whether an EIR establishes a likely source of water, but whether it adequately addresses the reasonably foreseeable impacts of supplying water to the project. If the uncertainties inherent in long-term land use and water planning make it impossible to confidently identify the future water sources, an EIR may satisfy CEQA if it acknowledges the degree of uncertainty involved, discusses the reasonably foreseeable alternativesincluding alternative water sources and the option of curtailing the development if sufficient water is not available for later phasesand discloses the significant foreseeable environmental effects of each alternative, as well as mitigation measures to minimize each adverse impact. (§ 21100, subd. (b).) In approving a project based on an EIR that takes this approach, however, the agency would also have to make, as appropriate to the circumstances, any findings CEQA requires regarding incorporated mitigation measures, infeasibility of mitigation, and overriding benefits of the project (§ 21081) as to each alternative prong of the analysis. Moreover, CEQA, in our understanding, does not require a city or county, each time a new land use development comes up for approval, to reinvent the water planning wheel. Every urban water supplier is already required to prepare and periodically update an urban water management plan, which must, inter alia, describe and project estimated past, present, and future water sources, supply and demand for at least 20 years into the future. (Wat.Code, §§ 10620-10631.) When an individual land use project requires CEQA evaluation, the urban water management plan's information and analysis may be incorporated in the water supply and demand assessment required by both the Water Code and CEQA [i]f the projected water demand associated with the proposed project was accounted for in the most recently adopted urban water management plan. (Wat.Code § 10910, subd. (c)(2).) Thus the Water Code and the CEQA provision requiring compliance with it (Pub. Resources Code, § 21151.9) contemplate that analysis in an individual project's CEQA evaluation may incorporate previous overall water planning projections, assuming the individual project's demand was included in the overall water plan. Finally, before assessing the adequacy of the FEIR's water supply analysis, we pause to clarify the nature of our review. As explained earlier, an agency may abuse its discretion under CEQA either by failing to proceed in the manner CEQA provides or by reaching factual conclusions unsupported by substantial evidence. (§ 21168.5.) Judicial review of these two types of error differs significantly: while we determine de novo whether the agency has employed the correct procedures, scrupulously enforcing] all legislatively mandated CEQA requirements ( Citizens of Goleta Valley v. Board of Supervisors (1990) 52 Cal.3d 553, 564, 276 Cal.Rptr. 410, 801 P.2d 1161), we accord greater deference to the agency's substantive factual conclusions. In reviewing for substantial evidence, the reviewing court may not set aside an agency's approval of an EIR on the ground that an opposite conclusion would have been equally or more reasonable, for, on factual questions, our task is not to weigh conflicting evidence and determine who has the better argument. ( Laurel Heights I, supra, 47 Cal.3d at p. 393, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278.) In evaluating an EIR for CEQA compliance, then, a reviewing court must adjust its scrutiny to the nature of the alleged defect, depending on whether the claim is predominantly one of improper procedure or a dispute over the facts. For example, where an agency failed to require an applicant to provide certain information mandated by CEQA and to include that information in its environmental analysis, we held the agency failed to proceed in the manner prescribed by CEQA. ( Sierra Club v. State Bd. of Forestry (1994) 7 Cal.4th 1215, 1236, 32 Cal.Rptr.2d 19, 876 P.2d 505; see also Santiago County Water Dist. v. County of Orange, supra, 118 Cal. App.3d at p. 829, 173 Cal.Rptr. 602 [EIR legally inadequate because of lack of water supply and facilities analysis].) In contrast, in a factual dispute over whether adverse effects have been mitigated or could be better mitigated ( Laurel Heights I, supra, 47 Cal.3d at p. 393, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278), the agency's conclusion would be reviewed only for substantial evidence. Thus, in Laurel Heights I, we rejected as a matter of law the agency's contention that the EIR did not need to evaluate the impacts of the project's foreseeable future uses because there had not yet been a formal decision on those uses ( id. at pp. 393-399, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278), but upheld as supported by substantial evidence the agency's finding that the project impacts described in the EIR were adequately mitigated ( id. at pp. 407-408, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278). (See also California Oak, supra, 133 Cal. App.4th at p. 1244, 35 Cal.Rptr.3d 434 [absent uncertain purchase of additional water, as to which the EIR's discussion is legally inadequate, substantial evidence of sufficient water supplies does not exist].)
As previously described, the Sunrise Douglas Community and Specific Plans proposed to rely initially on between 5,000 and 10,000 afa of groundwater to be extracted at the Well Field, a new well facility drawing from the region's deeper aquifer; the FEIR analyzed the impacts and needed mitigation of such extraction. Plaintiffs contend competing identified uses for the Well Field water, in particular growth in the Mather Field, Sunrise Corridor and Security Park areas of the County and the replacement of contaminated groundwater sources serving those areas, are likely to use the full 10,000 afa capacity of the Well Field, making the planned use of the same water for the Sunrise Douglas development completely out of the question. . As a result, plaintiffs argue, the Sunrise Douglas project will need instead to employ some other, unknown near-term water source, the impacts of which have not been analyzed. [9] As explained above, we review solely for substantial evidence the County's factual conclusion that 5,000 afa or more of Well Field water will be available for Sunrise Douglas. We disagree with plaintiffs that the FEIR's analysis of near-term water supply is inadequate on this ground. The FEIR noted that capacity would not be reserved in the [Well Field] for any specific user; capacity would simply be available to users on a `first-come, first-served' basis, since the [Well Field] would be a public water facility; acknowledged that existing and new demand in the Mather Field, Sunrise Corridor and Security Park areas might also be satisfied from the Well Field; and made clear that serving all these demands as well as a significant portion of the Sunrise Douglas project from the Well Field would require much more water than the 10,000 afa that source can safely provide. Nothing plaintiffs cite in the administrative record, however, demonstrates that these competing demands can be satisfied only from the Well Field or that they will all materialize in full in the near term and have priority over the Sunrise Douglas project. Uncertainty in the form of competition for identified water sources is an important point that should be discussed in an EIR's water supply analysisand was herebut it does not necessarily render development of the planned water supply too unlikely. In fact, the record indicates that a substantial portion of the projected Well Field water is likely to be used for the Sunrise Douglas project. The FEIR explains that the initial phase of Well Field construction (three wells, pumping about 2,265 afa) would include a pipeline connecting the wells to the Sunrise Douglas project's water distribution system and to a storage tank located at Sunrise Boulevard and Douglas Road. Those facilities would be constructed and operational within an estimated 18 months of project approval. Only with the second phase of construction (three additional wells pumping about 3,262 afa) would the Well Field be connected to the Water Agency's larger Zone 40 system, where it might also serve other users. The County's findings also state that developers within the Specific Plan area will be required to pay a per unit fee to purchase insurance for compensation of any Well Field neighbors whose wells fail as a result of the project. With regard to competition from other planned development, the findings state that already entitled development is expected to call, in the following six years, on about 3,000 of the Well Field's 10,000 afa production, leaving about 7,000 afamore than the FEIR's projected near-term demand of about 5,500 afafor development within the SunRidge Specific Plan area. With regard to replacement of contaminated groundwater, both the FEIR and the findings refer to other remediation and replacement efforts not involving Well Field water; what approaches will be taken and how successful they will be appear partly unknown. While much uncertainty remains, then, the record contains substantial evidence demonstrating a reasonable likelihood that a water source the provider plans to use for the Sunrise Douglas projecta source that will initially be connected only to the Sunrise Douglas project, for which the Sunrise Douglas project developers will pay a special insurance fee, and which is not already allocated to other entitled useswill indeed be available at least in substantial part to supply the Sunrise Douglas project's near-term needs. Nor did the County, in this instance, fail to proceed in the manner required by CEQA. With regard to the near-term exploitation of groundwater from the Well Field, the FEIR neither improperly used tiering to defer all analysis of supplies to future stages of the project, as in Stanislaus Natural, Heritage, supra, 48 Cal. App.4th 182, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625, nor relied upon demonstrably illusory supplies, as in Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal.App.4th 715, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186, and California Oak, supra, 133 Cal.App.4th 1219, 35 Cal. Rptr.3d 434. Although the FEIR did not demonstrate a level of certainty regarding future supplies comparable to that required for subdivision approval under Government Code section 66473.7, CEQA does not demand such certainty at the relatively early planning stage involved here. The Attorney General, as amicus curiae in support of plaintiffs, points out that the Specific Plan occupies a later land use planning stage than the Community Plan and that, under Government Code section 65457, a subdivision application consistent with the Specific Plan would not require further CEQA analysis unless substantial changes had occurred to the project or the surrounding circumstances, or new information had surfaced about the project's impacts (see Pub. Res.Code, § 21166). Nonetheless, to satisfy CEQA, an EIR for a specific plan need not demonstrate certainty regarding the project's future water supplies. To the extent a subsequent subdivision proposal relies on different water sources than were proposed in the specific plan it implements, or the likely availability of the intended water sources has changed between the time of the specific plan and the subdivision application (or more has been learned about the impacts of exploiting those sources), changes in the project, the surrounding circumstances or the available information would exist within the meaning of section 21166, requiring additional CEQA analysis under that section and Government Code section 65457. In holding the FEIR's analysis of supplying water to the Specific Plan area from the Well Field satisfies CEQA, therefore, we do not imply that the FEIR's analysis would suffice for approval of a future subdivision application proposing to use different or additional near-term water sources.
With regard to the long-term provision of surface water supplies to the project, plaintiffs again stress the competing demands for new water in the County, including other planned growth and the replacement of contaminated groundwater. They first note that the only assured source of new surface water supplies, 15,000 afa in federal Fazio water (not all of which is yet available for diversion), is clearly inadequate to meet long-term water demand in the southern part of the County. In so arguing, however, plaintiffs seemingly ignore the additional planned surface water supplies disclosed in the Water Forum Proposal and the FEIR. True, those supplies are not certain to materialize: even the Fazio water may in practice be limited to something less than 15,000 afa by lack of adequate diversion and transmission facilities, while neither binding contracts nor established facilities financing has been demonstrated for the remaining new surface water. But as we have seen, CEQA does not require this level of certainty at planning stages prior to approval of permits, subdivision maps or other development entitlements. (Cf.Gov. Code, § 66473.7, subd. (d) [detailed verification of future supplies required at subdivision approval stage].) The FEIR discloses the remaining uncertainty regarding actual provision of surface water, noting that provision of a long-term reliable water supply ... cannot be ensured until facilities are approved. The EIR thus contains substantial evidence to support the conclusion that some part of the planned new surface water supplies will be developed and made available to the Water Agency for use in its Zone 40. Plaintiffs are correct, however, that the FEIR's discussion of the total long-term water supply and demand in the Water Agency's Zone 40 (which includes the Sunrise Douglas project) leaves too great a degree of uncertainty regarding the long-term availability of water for this project. Factual inconsistencies and lack of clarity in the FEIR leave the readerand the decision makerswithout substantial evidence for concluding that sufficient water is, in fact, likely to be available for the Sunrise Douglas project at full build out. Most fundamentally, the project FEIR and the Water Forum Proposal final EIR provide no consistent and coherent description of the future demand for new water due to growth in Zone 40 or of the amount of new surface water that is potentially available to serve that growth. Regarding demand, the FEIR (in its background water supply discussion) states: The average water demand to support growth approved in the 1993 General Plan for the Zone 40 area, as expanded, is approximately 113,000 AF/yr. But the Water Forum Proposal and its associated final EIR, assertedly working from the same general plan growth projections, provide a lower estimate: 87,000 afa in expanded Zone 40 demand by the year 2030. The reason for divergence in these estimates is not explained. Also left unclear is whether these figures represent water demand from expected growth alone or total demand including that from expected growth. As to supply, the FEIR, relying on the Water Forum Proposal, projects new surface water deliveries of approximately 63,857 afa to the south area of the County (which includes the project and the Well Field), but elsewhere (responding to a comment on the Draft EIR) discloses only 45,000 afa of expected new surface water (15,000 AF/year of `Fazio' water from the [Central Valley Project]; 30,000 AF/year from an assignment of [the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)'s] appropriative water rights on the American River), plus an application for an undisclosed amount of surplus supplies on the Sacramento River. The final EIR for the Water Forum Proposal, however, is more optimistic, disclosing to up to 78,000 afa in new surface water. [10] The FEIR does not explain the divergence between its estimates and those in the Water Forum Proposal, or even the FEIR's own use of divergent new surface water supply figures in different portions of its discussion. In its findings approving the project, the Board used the FEIR's estimated demand figure of 113,000 afa and the FEIR's new surface water supply figure of approximately 63,857 afa, but did not attempt to explain the different estimates appearing elsewhere in the Water Forum Proposal and FEIR. An explanation of the differences among these figures may well exist, but it did not appear in the FEIR presented to the public and the Board. Nor does the FEIR make clear how the available water supply is expected to meet total Zone 40 demand over the long term and, hence, why a sufficient amount of the identified water should reasonably be expected to be available for the Sunrise Douglas project. Demand of 113,000 afa to support growth obviously cannot be met with new supplies of 63,857 afa. Even using the lowest demand figure of 87,000 afa and the highest new surface water supply figure of 78,000 afa (both drawn from the Water Forum Proposal, not from the FEIR), a significant gap remains. The general answer given in the FEIR, and echoed by real parties and Rancho Cordova, is that the new surface water supplies are to be used conjunctively with groundwater supplies. But this explanation is vague and unquantified. By itself, reliance on conjunctive use is inadequate, for, as plaintiffs argue, CEQA requires more than a reference to a water supply management practice as water supply analysis. How much groundwater, existing and new, will be used with how much new surface water? In what combinations will these sources be used during wet and dry years, respectively? No such description of planned future water use appears in the FElIR. As an amicus curiae observes: The conjunctive use program ... lacks quantification, with no analysis that would disclose whether the program will produce sufficient supplies and storage capacity to meet expected demands. Instead of itself providing an analytically complete and coherent explanation, the FEIR notes that a full analysis of the planned conjunctive use program must await environmental review of the Water Agency's Zone 40 master plan update, which was pending at the time the FEIR was released. The Board's findings repeat this explanation. To the extent the FEIR attempted, in effect, to tier from a future environmental document, we reject its approach as legally improper under CEQA. If the environmental impact analysis the Water Agency expects to perform on its Zone 40 master plan update is important to understanding the long-term water supply for the Sunrise Douglas project, it should be performed in the Sunrise Douglas project FEIR even though that might result in subsequent duplication by the master plan update. If, as Rancho Cordova argues, such duplication would be an impractical waste of resources, the County could instead have deferred analysis and approval of the Sunrise Douglas project until the master plan update analysis was complete, then tiered the project FEIR from the programmatic analysis it performed there. What the County could not do was avoid full discussion of the likely water sources for the Sunrise Douglas project by referring to a not yet complete comprehensive analysis in the Zone 40 master plan update. CEQA's informational purpose is not satisfied by simply stating information will be provided in the future. ( Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal. App.4th at p. 723, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186.) A reader of the FEIR, moreover, cannot readily derive the missing quantitative analysis of conjunctive use from the figures provided. The 10,000 afa in new groundwater to be drawn from the Well Field does not appear sufficient to bridge the dry-year gap between new surface water supplies and demand due to Zone 40 growth, which appears to be 42,000 afa at a minimum: 45,000 afa in planned dry-year surface water diversion rights versus 87,000 afa in demand (both figures per the Water Forum Proposal final EIR). In wet years even less groundwater would be available for extraction, as conjunctive use involves recharging the aquifer in wet years. To be sure, the County's burden in preparing the FEIR for the Sunrise Douglas project was not necessarily to demonstrate with certainty that the County's total water supply in the year 2030 would be sufficient to meet its total demand, though some discussion of total supply and demand is necessary to evaluate the long-term cumulative impact of development on water supply. ( Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal.App.4th at p. 719, 131 Cal. Rptr.2d 186; see also CEQA Guidelines, Cal.Code Regs., tit. 14, § 15130, subd. (b)(1)(B) [cumulative impact analysis may employ projections in general planning documents].) But CEQA did require that the FEIR show a likelihood, water would be available, over the long term, for this project. [11] Without an explanation that shows at least an approximate long-term sufficiency in total supply, the public and decision makers could have no confidence that the identified sources were actually likely to fully serve this extraordinarily large development project. An EIR that neglects to explain the likely sources of water and analyze their impacts, but leaves long-term water supply considerations to later stages of the project, does not serve the purpose of sounding an `environmental alarm bell' ( Laurel Heights I, supra, 47 Cal.3d at p. 392, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426,' 764 P.2d 278) before the project has taken on overwhelming bureaucratic and financial momentum ( id. at p. 395, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278). In this respect, the FEIR's discussions of near- and long-term water supplies differ significantly. As explained in part I.B. above, the FEIR included substantial evidence that competing users would not deprive the Sunrise Douglas project of most of its planned groundwater from the Well Field. But the FEIR contains no evidence, other than the gross demand figures (which are, as noted, inconsistent) regarding the uses that might be expected to compete with Sunrise Douglas for the planned new surface water over the next 20 or more years. Real parties point to a discussion of conjunctive use in the Water Forum Proposal that refers to larger amounts of groundwater than will be drawn from the Well Field. But the origin and precise reference of these figures is not explained, nor is their connection to the demand figures made entirely plain. [12] More important, neither these figures nor any reference to this analysis appears in the FEIR or even, so far as we are able to determine, in the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR. A reader of the FEIR could not reasonably be expected to ferret out an unreferenced discussion in the earlier Water Forum Proposal, interpret that discussion's unexplained figures without assistance, and spontaneously incorporate them into the FEIR's own discussion of total projected supply and demand. The data in an EIR must not only be sufficient in quantity, it must be presented in a manner calculated to adequately inform the public and decision makers, who may not be previously familiar with the details of the project. [1 Information `scattered here and there in EIR appendices' or a report `buried in an appendix,' is not a substitute for `a good faith reasoned analysis.' ( California Oak, supra, 133 Cal.App.4th at p. 1239, 35 Cal.Rptr.3d 434, quoting Santa Clarita, supra, 106 Cal.App.4th at pp. 722-723, 131 Cal.Rptr.2d 186.) To the extent the County, in certifying the FEIR as complete, relied on information not actually incorporated or described and referenced in the FEIR, it failed to proceed in the manner provided in CEQA. We do not hold or suggest that the Sunrise Douglas FEIR needed to reproduce or repeat an environmental impact analysis for new surface water supplies already performed in connection with the Water Forum Proposal. As discussed in the statement of facts, the final EIR for the Water Forum Proposal did discuss the impacts of the planned additional diversions of American River water; indeed, a summary of these impacts and the proposed mitigation measures occupies 85 pages of that EIR. The contemplated diversions include additional water for the Water Agency to use in its Zone 40 area, which, as noted, includes Sunrise Douglas. To the extent the Community and Specific Plans call for that same surface water to be used by the Sunrise Douglas development, the FEIR could have properly tiered from or incorporated the earlier environmental analysis. CEQA does not require that the information on impacts of diversion laid out in the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR be repeated in environmental documents for every development that depends on that water. (See § 21068.5 [through tiering, applicable analysis information in an EIR for a policy or program may be incorporated by reference in later narrow or site-specific project EIR's].) [13] The FEIR did not, however, make sufficiently clear its relationship with the Water Forum Proposal's environmental impact analysis. Although the FEIR's water supply discussion refers at several points to the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR, the FEIR does not state that it is tiered from or incorporates parts of the earlier document. In its background discussion, the FEIR lists the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR as one of the technical analyses upon which it is based but, again, does not expressly incorporate any part of that document by reference or state that it is formally tiered from the earlier environmental impact analysis. Because it does not expressly tier from or incorporate the earlier documents, a reader of the FEIR would not be alerted that in order to apprehend the intended surface water supply for the Sunrise Douglas project, and particularly the impacts of exploiting that supply, he or she must separately read parts of those earlier documents. And the reader who did look to the earlier documents would do so without explicit reference in the FEIR to the particular portions incorporated. When an EIR uses tiering or incorporation, it must give the reader a better road map to the information it intends to convey. (See CEQA Guidelines, Cal.Code Regs., tit. 14, §§ 15150, subd. (c) [when an EIR incorporates an earlier environmental document by reference, the incorporated part of the referenced document shall be briefly summarized where possible and [t]he relationship between the incorporated part of the referenced document and the EIR shall be described], 15152, subd. (g) [when tiering is used, [t]he later EIR or negative declaration should state that the lead agency is using the tiering concept and that it is being tiered with the earlier EIR].) The audience to whom an EIR must communicate is not the reviewing court but the public and the government officials deciding on the project. That a party's briefs to the court may explain or supplement matters that are obscure or incomplete in the EIR, for example, is irrelevant, because the public and decision makers did not have the briefs available at the time the project was reviewed and approved. The question is therefore not whether the project's significant environmental effects can be clearly explained, but whether they were. The Sunrise Douglas FEIR fails that test. Because the FEIR failed to explicitly incorporate the impacts and mitigation discussion in the Water Forum Proposal's final EIR, it lacks, contrary to CEQA's requirements, enforceable mitigation measures for the surface water diversions intended to serve the Sunrise Douglas project. A public agency shall provide that measures to mitigate or avoid significant effects on the environment are fully enforceable through permit conditions, agreements, or other measures. Conditions of project approval may be set forth in referenced documents which address required mitigation measures or, in the case of the adoption of a plan, policy, regulation, or other public project, by incorporating the mitigation measures into the plan, policy, regulation, or project design. (§ 21081.6, subd. (b); see also CEQA Guidelines, Cal.Code Regs., tit. 14, § 15126.4, subd. (a)(2).) The County could have complied with this command by incorporating the Water Forum Proposal final EIR's mitigation measures into the Community and Specific Plans. But absent such incorporation, the FEIR, and the County's findings based on it, are inadequate to support project approval under CEQA because they do not discuss the impacts of new surface water diversions, enforceable measures to mitigate those impacts, or the remaining unmitigated impacts. (See § 21081.) [14] In this respect, the County failed to proceed in the manner required by CEQA. Real parties also assert that the FEIR's mitigation measure WS-1, which states that entitlements for development within the Sunrise Douglas project shall not be granted without firm proof of available water supplies, assures that water will be available for later phases of the project. As discussed earlier, however, an EIR may not substitute a provision precluding further development for identification and analysis of the project's intended and likely water sources. While it might be argued that not building a portion of the project is the ultimate mitigation, it must be borne in mind that the EIR must address the project and assumes the project will be built. ( Stanislaus Natural Heritage, supra, 48 Cal.App.4th at p. 206, 55 Cal.Rptr.2d 625.) A provision like WS-1 could serve to supplement an EIR's discussion of the impacts of exploiting the intended water sources; in that case, however, the EIR, in order adequately to inform decision makers and the public, would then need to discuss the probability that the intended water sources for later phases of development will not eventuate, the environmental impacts of curtailing the project before completion, and mitigation measures planned to minimize any such significant impacts. The Sunrise Douglas FEIR did not attempt such an analysis. In this respect as well, the County erred procedurally. In short, the FEIR's long-term water supply discussion suffers from both lack of substantial evidence to support its key factual conclusion and legally defective procedures. On the factual question of how future surface water supplies will, serve this project as well as other projected demand in the area, the project FEIR presents a jumble of seemingly inconsistent figures for future total area demand and surface water supply, with no plainly stated, coherent analysis of how the supply is to meet the demand. The reader attempting to understand the County's plan for providing water to the entire Sunrise Douglas development is left to rely on inference and speculation. In this respect, the FEIR water supply discussion fails to disclose the `anahytic route the ... agency traveled from evidence to action' and is thus not sufficient to allow informed decision making. ( Laurel Heights I, supra, 47 Cal.3d at p. 404, 253 Cal.Rptr. 426, 764 P.2d 278.) The concurring and dissenting opinion purports to find our holdingthat the FEIR's long-term water supply discussion is legally insufficient, while the short-term discussion is adequatesurprising and the distinctions on which it rests elusive. (Conc. & dis. opn. of Baxter, J., post, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at pp. 851, 852, 150 P.3d at p. 734.) For maximum clarity, we summarize the pertinent distinctions here. (1) The time periods involved: According to the FEIR, the first phase of groundwater supply is to occur within about 18 months of project approval, with the second phase following as needed. In contrast, real parties suggest full build out of the Community Plan may take 15 to 20 years. As the planning horizon is extended, one's confidence that large quantities of new surface water will be available, and not allocated to competing projects that may be developed in the future, necessarily decreases. (2) Discussion of facilities and competing uses: As already discussed (see ante, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at p. 839, 150 P.3d at p. 724), the administrative record contains information on the potential competitors for Well Field water that, taken together with information on the planned development of the facilities for delivering the water to Sunrise Douglas, is sufficient to demonstrate a likelihood of its availability for Sunrise Douglas. In contrast, the record contains no information (beyond the County's general plan projections) on other planned long-term developments in Zone 40. Nor does the FEIR disclose any concrete plans for new surface water diversion, treatment and transmission facilities that would tend to tie the new water particularly to Sunrise Douglas. A reader of the FEIR is not informed what other Zone 40 development projects are in prospect over the long term, what their specific water needs will be, or when they will draw on available supplies. [15] In these circumstances, the FEIR could not demonstrate a likelihood of adequate long-term supply for Sunrise Douglas without showing that plans for the Zone 40 area call for at least a rough balance between water supply and demand, a showing the FEIR fails to make. (3) Analysis of impacts and mitigation measures: The FEIR analyzes the impacts of withdrawing groundwater from the Well Field to meet the project's water needs in the near term and proposes mitigation measures, which the County adopted in approving the project. As already discussed, however, the FEIR contains no discussion of the impacts of new surface water diversion or the measures needed to mitigate those impacts and does not adequately incorporate the impact and mitigation discussion contained in the Water Form Proposal's final EIR. (See ante, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at pp. 844-845, 150 P.3d at pp. 728-729.) The FEIR neither states that it is tiered from that earlier EIR, nor expressly incorporates the pertinent discussion from it, nor guides the reader with a summary of the contents of the earlier discussion or a specific reference to the discussion's location within the earlier document, nor incorporates mitigation measures proposed in the earlier EIR into proposed measures the County could adopt as enforceable requirements for implementing the Community and Specific Plans. The concurring and dissenting opinion also asserts that our decision here will hold Sunrise Douglas and other developments hostage to a balancing of supply and demand for all conceivable development that is not prohibited by the County's general plan. (Conc. & dis. opn. of Baxter, J., post, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at p. 852, 150 P.3d at p. 735.) This claim misses the mark for two reasons, both of which we have already explained. First, CEQA does not necessarily require that an EIR show that total water supply and demand are or will be in balance in an area. The EIR may by other means demonstrate a reasonable likelihood that water will be available for the project from an identified source (see ante, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at pp. 839-840, 150 P.3d at pp. 724-725 [near-term water supply discussion for this project]) and, even without a showing that water from the identified source is likely to be sufficient, an EIR may satisfy CEQA by fully disclosing the uncertainty, the other possible outcomes, their impacts and appropriate mitigation measures. (See ante, 53 Cal.Rptr.3d at pp. 836-837, 150 P.3d at p. 722.) [16] Second, long-term local water planning is not a burden that must be taken up anew, for CEQA purposes, each time a development is proposed; rather, cities and counties may rely on existing urban water management plans, so long as the expected new demand of the development was included in the water management plan's future demand accounting. (See ante, 53 Cal. Rptr.3d at pp. 836-837, 150 P.3d at pp. 722-723; Wat.Code, § 10910, subd. (c)(2); Pub. Resources Code, § 21151.9.) In summary, the FEIR's long-term water supply discussion suffers from both procedural and factual flaws. Procedurally, the FEIR improperly purports to tier from a future environmental document, the pending Zone 40 master plan analysis. The FEIR also fails to properly incorporate or tier from the impact and mitigation discussion of the Water Forum Proposal and hence to include in the present project enforceable mitigation measures for the large new surface water diversions proposed. Finally, it relies on a provision for curtailing later stages of development if water supplies do not materialize without disclosing, or proposing mitigation for, the environmental effects of such truncation. Factually, the FEIR's use of inconsistent supply and demand figures, and its failure to explain how those figures match up, results in a lack of substantial evidence that new surface water diversions are likely to supply the project's long-term needs. We think that with approval at stake of a development project ultimately expected to use more than 22,000 afa of wateralmost 4 percent of the entire County's projected urban demand in the year 2030CEQA entitles the decision makers and the public to a legally proper procedure and to a clearer, more coherent and consistent explanation of how, given the competing demands expected to arise for new watersupplies, water is to be provided to the project.