Opinion ID: 896887
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Population and Trends.

Text: [¶ 8] We have considered population and trends on a district wide basis and also for the specific county in or to which it has been proposed the judgeship be retained or transferred. To examine trends in population changes, we have reviewed data assembled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University (State Data Center). The population changes from 1990 to 2000 in the districts under review are reflected in the following graph based on data assembled by the State Data Center and the U.S. Census Bureau in its Profiles of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1990 1995 2000 Judicial District Population Population Population ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- East Central (3 counties) 114,046 122,763 133,873 Northwest (6 counties) 98,355 96,792 95,449 Southeast (11 counties) 90,995 87,855 86,767 [¶ 9] Analysis done by the State Data Center provides the following population projections for 2005, 2010, and 2015. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Projected 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015 Judicial District Population Population Population ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- East Central (3 counties) 134,324 138,921 143,266 Northwest (6 counties) 97,114 97,353 97,506 Southeast (11 counties) 83,951 83,030 82,040 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [¶ 10] This population data illustrates clearly discernible trends. Over the past two census periods, the East Central Judicial District has experienced a steady increase in population. The increase is projected to continue for the next decade. Over the last two census periods, the population in the Northwest and Southeast Judicial Districts has generally declined and population projections for the next decade indicate marginal change. The impact of these population dynamics is reflected in the relationship between available or potential judicial resources and the population within the districts. Based on the 2000 population, the East Central Judicial District, with 7 judges and 2 referees, has a population per judge/referee of 14,875. An additional judge in the district reduces the population per judge/referee to 13,387. The Northwest Judicial District, with 7 judges and 1 referee, has a population per judge/referee of 11,931. The loss of a judge in that district increases the population per judge/referee to 13,636. The Southeast Judicial District, with 6 judges and no referees, has a population per judge of 14,461. An additional judge in the district would reduce the population per judge/referee to 12,395. Thus, based on 2000 population figures, the transfer of the vacant judgeship to the East Central Judicial District results in relative parity in population per judge/referee. This relative parity remains constant when considering projected district populations over the next fifteen years. Based on the projected 2010 population, the East Central Judicial District with an additional judge would have a population per judge/referee of 13,892. The Northwest Judicial District after a transfer would have a population per judge/referee of 13,907. The Southeast Judicial District, with the current complement of 6 judges, would have a population per judge of 13,838. When considering the projected 2015 population, the East Central Judicial District with an additional judge would have a population per judge/referee of 14,327. The Northwest Judicial District after a transfer would have a population per judge/referee of 13,929, and the Southeast Judicial District, with 6 judges, would have a population per judge of 13,673. [¶ 11] Because the location of the main population centers within a district also affects the amount of travel required of judges in the district, we also note the population changes in the specific county in which it is proposed that the judgeship be retained or transferred. The following graph based on information from the State Data Center and the U.S. Census Bureau Profiles reflects county populations. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1990 1995 2000 Counties Population Population Population --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cass 102,874 111,802 123,138 Ward 57,921 58,711 58,795 Stutsman 22,241 21,387 21,908 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Projections assembled by the State Data Center for populations in these counties in 2005, 2010, and 2015 are shown in the next graph. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Projected 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015 Counties Population Population Population ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cass 123,511 128,096 132,486 Ward 60,880 61,531 62,049 Stutsman 20,821 20,820 20,762 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [¶ 12] County-specific population data over the last two census periods and projections for the next fifteen years confirm the district-wide trend noted above. [¶ 13] The ten-year period from 1990 to 2000 also shows a significant change in the population age spread as reflected in the changes in the population aged 0 to 17 years in the counties in the districts under consideration. The following graphs based on the U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Censuses show this population change. Children Ages 0 to 17 Years ------------------------------------------------------------------- East Central 1990 2000 Numeric Percent District Census Census Change Change ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cass 25,690 28,848 + 3,158 + 12.29 Steele 632 624 -8 - 1.27 Traill 2,244 2,104 - 140 - 6.24 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 28,566 31,576 + 3,010 + 10.54 ------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------- Northwest 1990 2000 Numeric Percent District Census Census Change Change ------------------------------------------------------------------- Burke 742 467 - 275 - 37.06 Divide 692 462 - 230 - 33.24 McKenzie 2,111 1,756 - 355 - 16.82 Mountrail 2,108 1,860 - 248 - 11.76 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ward 16,252 15,423 - 829 - 5.10 Williams 6,326 5,172 - 1,154 - 18.24 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 28,231 25,140 - 3,091 - 10.95 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Southeast 1990 2000 Numeric Percent District Census Census Change Change Barnes 3,092 2,624 - 468 - 15.14 Dickey 1,527 1,369 - 158 - 10.35 Eddy 738 651 - 87 - 11.79 Foster 1,094 985 - 109 - 9.96 Griggs 857 621 - 236 - 27.54 LaMoure 1,465 1,138 - 327 - 22.32 Ransom 1,531 1,471 - 60 - 3.92 Richland 4,917 4,437 - 480 - 9.76 Sargent 1,224 1,155 - 69 - 5.64 Stutsman 5,785 5,005 - 780 - 13.48 Wells 1,434 1,149 - 285 - 19.87 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 23,664 20,605 - 3,059 - 12.93 ------------------------------------------------------------------- [¶ 14] Age distribution within a district affects the need for judicial services. As discussed below in the description of the weighted caseload study, juvenile dependency and juvenile delinquency proceedings are assigned great weight in the caseload study because of significant demands on judicial time for each case type. Therefore, a district with a significantly higher proportion of minors will place greater demand on judicial services than the same population with older members. [¶ 15] Conversely, an increasingly elderly population makes fewer demands on the judicial system than the same number of younger citizens. This is particularly true with respect to age and the commission of criminal offenses. Statistics prepared by the Office of Attorney General's Bureau of Criminal Investigation shows a significant drop in arrests of persons over the age of 44. Arrests by Age Group, 1990-1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Age Group 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Under 10 213 217 200 207 199 281 208 204 205 202 10-12 573 713 809 754 765 895 881 953 758 628 13-14 1486 1677 1784 1827 2137 2396 2433 2429 2165 1877 15 1272 1223 1461 1395 1609 1796 2077 1980 1775 1586 16 1370 1340 1501 1873 1646 2044 2138 2115 2034 1977 17 1586 1455 1686 1687 1890 2020 2201 2099 2238 2159 18 1763 1906 1887 1810 1828 2306 2238 2210 2610 2356 19 2072 1878 2110 1783 2143 2238 2279 2330 2611 2693 20 1779 1777 1749 1753 1774 1997 1991 2170 2366 2220 21 1138 1081 1086 1057 1200 1320 1304 1240 1385 1186 22 970 902 1029 1057 1057 1149 1163 1166 1063 1039 23 860 768 809 858 930 940 1026 922 1040 807 24 839 703 703 677 859 951 929 911 821 741 25-29 3340 3104 2830 2841 3002 3242 3506 3451 3390 2858 30-34 2204 2214 2258 2347 2542 2910 3023 2709 2642 2230 35-39 1460 1587 1624 1711 1854 2278 2264 2494 2497 2166 40-44 935 1012 1029 1046 1244 1431 1633 1710 1689 1500 45-49 613 579 592 659 717 901 918 958 967 919 50-54 359 379 373 378 463 485 516 523 513 515 55-59 280 243 213 226 225 262 251 266 270 234 60-64 169 132 149 122 126 154 143 153 103 107 65+ 227 249 244 292 263 256 225 215 221 198 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Age Not Reported 393 445 310 264 147 267 426 185 60 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Arrest Total 25508 25532 26571 26670 28737 32399 33614 33634 33548 30258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ [¶ 16] The Profiles of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000 prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that North Dakota has 233,342 people or 36.33% of the state's population over the age of 44. [¶ 17] For the districts under consideration, the following graphs based upon the U.S. Census Bureau Profiles show the percentage of population over age 44 by county: East Central ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- County Total Population Population Over 44 Percentage Over 44 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Cass 123,138 36,055 29.28% Steele 2,258 1,006 44.55% Traill 8,477 3,452 40.72% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 133,873 40,513 30.26% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Northwest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- County Total Population Population Over 44 Percentage Over 44 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Burke 2,242 1,197 53.39% Divide 2,283 1,281 56.11% McKenzie 5,737 2,326 40.54% Mountrail 6,631 2,782 41.95% Ward 58,795 18,622 31.67% Williams 19,761 7,999 40.48% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 95,449 34,207 35.84% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Southeast ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- County Total Population Population Over 44 Percentage Over 44 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Barnes 11,775 5,115 43.44% Dickey 5,757 2,506 43.53% Eddy 2,757 1,319 47.84% Foster 3,759 1,594 42.40% Griggs 2,754 1,418 51.49% LaMoure 4,701 2,228 47.39% Ransom 5,890 2,572 43.67% Richland 17,998 6,344 35.25% Sargent 4,366 1,860 42.60% Stutsman 21,908 8,956 40.88% Wells 5,102 2,563 50.24% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 86,767 36,475 42.04% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------