Opinion ID: 848629
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 11

Heading: the distinction between fact and reasonable possibility

Text: The mischief here is that, once a juror hears evidence that rezoning occurred, the juror will have difficulty concluding anything but that rezoning was reasonably possible when the taking occurred. As noted earlier in this opinion on p. 397, it is not necessarily true that the possibility reasonably existed at the time of the taking. Rezoning might have become reasonably possible only upon the happening of one or more events after the taking. The taking itself could be one such event, as plaintiff argued at trial. Moreover, it does not follow from the fact that something occurs that people could have reasonably believed beforehand that it would occur. Consider these illustrations: In January 1968 one could have predicted that it was reasonably possible that Neil Armstrong would set foot on the moon in July 1969. Similarly, one could say today that it is reasonably possible that man will visit Mars in future years. Merely because an event occurred does not mean that it was reasonably possible on a given date beforehand. Reasonable predictions of space exploration require one to know much about the status of our space program at the time the prediction is made. An accurate assessment of the reasonable possibility of these two space explorations depends on the information known beforehand. Similarly, a reasonable prediction of future rezoning requires that certain knowledge be available to the market participant at the time of the taking. See p. 396 n. 7 of this opinion. The distinction between the fact of an occurrence and whether it was reasonably possible on a given date before it occurred has eluded many. For example, one prominent treatise, cited by the trial court, the dissent in the Court of Appeals, and Justice Markman, characterized the fact of posttaking rezoning as weighty evidence. 4 Nichols, Eminent Domain (3d ed.), § 12C.03[3]. It is not enough that posttaking rezoning is probative of an antecedent possibility of rezoning, as Justice Markman argues. The question is was it reasonably possible at the time of the taking? In this case, the taking was two-and-one-half years before rezoning occurred. The fact that rezoning did occur does not mean that it was reasonably possible at the time of or before the taking that it would occur. At first blush, posttaking rezoning is compelling evidence that there was a strong possibility of rezoning at the time of the taking. But the admission of this evidence was unfair because of the significant danger that the jury would not properly limit its consideration of it. Admission of this evidence risks that the jury will accord it weight wildly disproportionate to its probative value and treat rezoning when the taking occurred as a foregone conclusion. [11] This is the hindsight bias discussed by Justice Young that leads the jury to give the evidence undue weight and render it unfairly prejudicial. See ante at 390 n. 36. Rather than prove Justice Young's point, this bias demonstrates why the evidence can be relevant yet unfairly prejudicial. Evidence of posttaking rezoning also tends to confuse the value of property once rezoned and its value when it was only reasonably possible that it would be rezoned. In a takings case, the amount that the property owner is entitled to be paid is the latter value. However, the jury may improperly award just compensation based on the value of the land as rezoned as if the property had already been rezoned before the taking. Justice Markman proceeds on the faith that the jury can limit the evidence to its proper sphere. See post at 408-409. However, this approach negates the trial court's role as a gatekeeper under MRE 403. The court must ensure that the influence of the evidence presented to the jury is not wildly disproportionate to its probative value. In every case, the fact of subsequent rezoning is unavailable to the market participant at the time of the taking. As Justice Markman points out, it allows one party the benefit of the skyscraper or stadium looming overhead whereas the market participant was limited to imagination and someday plans. It is highly prejudicial because it gives one party an unfair advantage over the other by giving the jury information that the hypothetical market participant could not have obtained. [12] Just as the market does not have the benefit of twenty-twenty hindsight, neither do litigants. The jury must assess the value of the property `on the basis of facts as they then would have appeared to and been evaluated by the mythical buyer and seller.' Roach v. Newton Redevelopment Auth., 381 Mass. 135, 138, 407 N.E.2d 1251 (1980), quoting New Jersey v. Gorga, 26 N.J. 113, 118, 138 A.2d 833 (1958). [13] In the interest of having the same availability of information as the market participants at the time of the taking, the jury should not know of posttaking rezoning. It causes too great a danger of confusion of the issues and unfair prejudice to the taking party, outweighing its probative value. [14]