Opinion ID: 770944
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 3

Heading: Racially-polarized elections between white candidates

Text: 43 In 1994 and 1996 there were 51 general election contests held in the four challenged House Districts involving two white candidates. Of these 51 elections, American Indian voters and white voters preferred different candidates in 29 contests (21 in majority-white districts and 8 in majority-Indian districts). In jurisdictions with a majority-white voting age population, the candidate preferred by Indian voters lost 14 of 21 elections (67%); in 11 of those 21 elections (52%) the Indian-preferred candidate was defeated by a white bloc vote in excess of 60%. In jurisdictions with a majority-Indian voting age population, the candidate preferred by Indian voters won all 8 contests. 44 During the same period, there were 5 white-white election contests for the State House of Representatives or Senate for which BERA analyses were performed. We consider these contests, occurring in the challenged districts and involving the same public office subject to challenge, to be more probative than election contests for other offices. NAACP v. City of Niagara Falls, 65 F.3d 1002, 1015 n.16 (2d Cir. 1995). Of these 5, white and Indian voters preferred different candidates in 4 of the contests. See Table 3 below. 45 Table 3 White/White Legislative General Elections in HDs 73, 74, 85 and 86 District Year Position Split White vote Indian vote Whether or County/ pref.? for white- for Indian- Indian Percentage preferred preferred candidate Indian candidate candidate won or lost voting age population (VAP) HD 73 1994 State No -- -- -- 28% Indian VAP Rep. HD 74 1994 State Yes 77.8% 79.1% Lost 14% Indian VAP Rep. HD 86 1994 State Yes 71.2% 87.0% Lost 19% Indian VAP Senate HD 86 1996 State Yes 75.9% 89.1% Lost 19% Indian VAP Rep. HD 85 1994 State Yes 71.7% 88.7% Won 66% Indian VAP Senate 46 In districts with a majority-white voting age population (HDs 73, 74 and 86), the candidate preferred by Indian voters lost all 3 split-preference election contests; in each case, white bloc voting exceeded 71%. In the 1 district with a majority-Indian voting age population, the candidate preferred by Indian voters won the sole election contest. 47 An analysis of white-white elections in all eight of the districts challenged at trial produces similar evidence that white bloc voting usually defeats the Indian-preferred candidate. Of the 100 contests analyzed, white and Indian voters preferred different candidates in 50 elections (31 in majority-white jurisdictions and 19 in majority-Indian jurisdictions). In majority-white districts, the Indian-preferred candidate was defeated 24 of 31 times (77%); more than 60% of white voters voted as a bloc to defeat the Indian-preferred candidate in 17 of those 31 election contests (55%). In majority-Indian districts, the Indian-preferred white candidate won 15 of 19 contests (79%). If only state legislative elections are considered, the Indian-preferred candidate was defeated in all split-preference contests, and in 5 of those 6 instances (83%) by a white bloc voting in excess of 60%. In contrast, the Indian-preferred candidate won both of the elections in a majority-Indian district. Thus, an analysis of racially-polarized white-white contests reveals legally significant white bloc voting as defined by Gingles. 48 The State urges us to consider, as the district court did not, the extent to which a majority of white and Indian voters agreed on candidates in the relevant electoral contests. In Askew v. City of Rome, 127 F.3d 1355, 1385 (11th Cir. 1997), it was error for the district court to consider only those elections in which black and white voters preferred different candidates. In Askew, black candidates (who were also black-preferred) ran in 33 elections. Id. at 1381. In 23 elections the white majority preferred the black candidate and the black candidate won all 23 of those contests. Id. at 1381, 1385. In the 10 contests in which the white majority did not prefer the black candidate, the black candidate lost. Id. at 1385. The district court considered only the 10 split-preference contests to be probative. The Eleventh Circuit disagreed, and held that the excluded 23 contests were probative as well. Id. 49 Askew has no analog here. Of the 17 contests between white and Indian candidates considered by the district court, in both majority-white and majority-Indian jurisdictions, the majority of white voters preferred the white candidate 16 out of 17 times. In the sole remaining contest, the white vote was split 50-50 between the two candidates. It is true that there was more agreement between white and Indian voters when no Indian candidates were in the race. But we have no evidence to suggest that most of these contests that the State claims to evidence racial agreement actually touched on issues of heightened concern to the Indian community. In fact the scant evidence is to the contrary. 12 In addition, none of the contests to which the State points for support are state legislative elections. Without more, we cannot conclude that the district court erred by failing to consider the extent to which white and Indian voters did not have split preferences in white-white contests.