Opinion ID: 622359
Heading Depth: 4
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Our Mandate in Tri-Valley CAREs I

Text: In Tri-Valley Cares I, we affirmed the original EA on all grounds, except for its failure to consider the impact of a possible terrorist attack. On that ground alone, we remanded for the DOE to consider whether the threat of terrorist activity necessitates the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement, by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the human health, safety, and environmental risks associated with a terrorist attack at LLNL's BSL-3 facility. Tri-Valley Cares I, 203 Fed.Appx. at 107 (citing San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace v. Nuclear Regulatory Comm'n, 449 F.3d 1016 (9th Cir.2006) ( Mothers for Peace I )). Following that decision, in Mothers for Peace II, we upheld the NRC's finding of no significant impact in a revised EA in which the NRC first analyzed site the site-specific low risk factors, and then bounded the maximum impact of an attack using an MCE model. See San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace v. NRC, 635 F.3d 1109 (9th Cir.2011) ( Mothers for Peace II ) (applying 28 U.S.C. § 157(b)(2)(A)). An agency has the discretion to determine the physical scope used for measuring environmental impacts so long as the scope of analysis is reasonable. Idaho Sporting Cong. v. Rittenhouse, 305 F.3d 957, 973 (9th Cir.2002). If the proposed action does not significantly alter the status quo, it does not have a significant impact under NEPA. Burbank Anti-Noise Group v. Goldschmidt, 623 F.2d 115, 116 (9th Cir.1980). At bottom, an agency need only provide a convincing statement of why the threat did not require an EIS to satisfy NEPA. See Ocean Advocates v. U.S. Army Corps. of Eng'rs, 402 F.3d 846, 864 (9th Cir.2005) (internal citations and quotation marks omitted). An agency is not required to consider every scenario, and further, nothing in NEPA requires it to rely on purely empirical data. Id.
The DOE utilized its MCE scenario, developed in the original EA, to evaluate the outer bounds of a pathogen release. In Tri-Valley Cares I, we previously upheld the use of this centrifuge model for a bounding analysis of the impacts of abnormal catastrophic events, including earthquakes and accidental plane crashes. There, the model was applied not to measure the cause of the triggering event, but rather the outer limits of its impact. In selecting the centrifuge model to measure the potential impact of a direct terrorist attack on the LLNL BSL-3 facility, the DOE specifically reasoned that the catastrophic release model was analogous to the direct attack scenario because the triggering incidents (earthquake or accidental plane crash in the former, intentional plane crash or suicide bombing in the latter) would result in similar structural damage to the LLNL BSL-3 facility. Moreover, the DOE further refined its analysis of a terrorist attack using the centrifuge model by highlighting several key distinctions from the Army's original model that would significantly alter the consequences of such an event at the LLNL facilityspecifically: (1) the very limited quantities of biological agents generally in use; (2) the likely destruction of pathogens resulting from the fire caused by an airplane crash or explosive device; and (3) the likely destruction of pathogens resulting from general environmental exposure. Because the Army's catastrophic release scenario measured the effects of a catastrophic event at LLNL BSL-3, it was reasonable that the model be applied to consider the outer bounds of a threat of terrorist attack. We read Mothers for Peace II as supporting the proposition that use of an MCE model, such as the catastrophic release scenario applied here, is an acceptable method to simulate the bounds of a direct terrorist attack when the agency decision to use that model is reasonably supported by agency evidence. See Mothers for Peace II, 635 F.3d at 1113 (affirming assessment of a terrorist threat where agency projected pathogen release using maximum credible event). [3] Here, as in Mothers for Peace II, the DOE applied a general MCE analysis to measure the outer limits of the impact of a direct terrorist attack. The MCE centrifuge model used in the original EA was an outer bounding model for a hypothetical maximum credible event it was not designed to be unique to only one particular incident, or even type of incident. We find the DOE's use of the MCE centrifuge model sufficient under NEPA and Mothers for Peace II because the DOE reasonably justified its selection based upon record evidence and additional analysis of site-specific factors. Whether we agree that a centrifuge model was the best way to assess the threat of direct terrorist attack is not the inquiry before us. Lands Council, 537 F.3d at 988 ([w]hen specialists express conflicting views, an agency must have discretion to rely on the reasonable opinions of its own qualified experts even if, as an original matter, a court might find contrary views more persuasive.) (internal citations omitted). Under NEPA, we must refrain from acting as a type of omnipotent scientist, and instead must restrict ourselves to inquiring only whether an agency took a hard look at the potential environmental impacts at issue. Muckleshoot Indian Tribe v. U.S. Forest Serv., 177 F.3d 800, 814 (9th Cir.1999) (per curiam) (quoting Robertson v. Methow Valley Citizens Council, 490 U.S. 332, 350, 109 S.Ct. 1835, 104 L.Ed.2d 351 (1989)). When reasonable scientists disagree on appropriate models for analysis, we must defer to agency experts. Lands Council, 537 F.3d at 988. Here, the DOE provided ample justification and evidence for why it used the centrifuge model to assess the impact of a terrorist attack: it analogized triggering events, compared critical distinctions, and considered uniquely different circumstances. Accordingly, because of the deference that must be afforded to the agency, we find that the DOE took the requisite hard look at the threat of direct terrorist attack.
In assessing the impact of a terrorist threat by the theft and release by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist outsider, the DOE used a comparative nationwide analysis to determine that the LLNL BSL-3 facility would not be an attractive terrorist target. Specifically, the DOE explained that the LLNL BSL-3 would not alter the status quo basis because there are hundreds of other BSL-3 facilities in the United States that regularly handle and store the same substances, and moreover, that such substances are also available to potential terrorists from common environmental sources. Tri-Valley CAREs contends that the DOE's analysis is deficient because, pursuant to 40 C.F.R. § 1508.27(a), the DOE must assess the risk of terrorist theft and release in the context of the Livermore locale. We disagree. Although 40 C.F.R. § 1508.27(a) suggests that site-specific actions are generally evaluated in the context of a project locale, nothing in the regulation prohibits the DOE from exercising its discretion to apply a nationwide analysis when appropriate. See Nat'l Parks & Cons. Ass'n v. Babbitt, 241 F.3d 722, 731 (9th Cir.2001). The identification of the geographic area within which a project's impacts on the environmental resources may occur is a task assigned to the special competency of the appropriate agencies. Kleppe v. Sierra Club, 427 U.S. 390, 414, 96 S.Ct. 2718, 49 L.Ed.2d 576 (1976). We find that the DOE's determination of the potential impact of a terrorist theft and release of a pathogen on a national level satisfies NEPA because the record does not show any meaningful difference between the materials present at the LLNL BSL-3 facility and those present at other BSL-3 facilities nationwide. Nowhere in the record is there any proof that the LLNL BSL-3 facility is more prone or attractive to terrorist theft and release of a pathogen by an outsider than any other BSL-3 facility. To the contrary, the record reveals that LLNL is actually one of the most heavily guarded federal facilities, in contrast to hundreds of relatively unguarded BSL-3 facilities nationwide. Given that there are more than 1,300 other BSL-3 facilities nationwide, many of which lack the safeguards of LLNL's BSL-3 facility, and further, given that many of the BSL-3 pathogens also exist in the natural environment, DOE reasonably concluded that the construction of a BSL-3 facility at LLNL did not change the status quo, and therefore found no significant impact. See Burbank Anti-Noise Group v. Goldschmidt, 623 F.2d 115, 116 (9th Cir.1980) (holding that where a proposed project does not alter the status quo then it does not have a significant impact). Accordingly, we find that the DOE reasonably exercised its discretion in determining no significant impact from the threat of theft and release by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist outsider.
Lastly, the DOE's discussion of the impact of the potential theft and release of a pathogen by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider also satisfies NEPA. Although the DOE did not use an empirical model, it engaged in a thorough two-step probabilistic analysis that assessed: (1) the probability that an insider with access to BSL-3 pathogens would have the motive to commit such an attack; and (2) the public threat that would result, assuming that an insider did have the access and motive to release a pathogen. Tri-Valley CAREs' claim that the DOE violated NEPA because it did not employ empirical analysis fails. Empirical analysis is not required under NEPA; an agency must only provide a convincing statement of why the threat did not require an EIS. See Ocean Advocates v. U.S. Army Corps. of Eng'rs, 402 F.3d 846, 864 (9th Cir.2005). The DOE laid out its dual-tiered probabilistic analysis, discretely defined the scope of its inquiry, and thoughtfully examined the likelihood of an insider stealing and releasing pathogens from LLNL. Based upon the facts that (1) a very small number of people have access to the select agents at LLNL BSL-3, all of whom are subject to extensive screening procedures from multiple agencies; and (2) the form and quantities of the pathogens at LLNL BSL-3 would require significant additional efforts to bring about a terrorist attack, the DOE concluded that the threat of a theft and release by an insider was not significant. The DOE's methodical inquiry satisfies NEPA's requirement that it provide a convincing statement as to why the threat did not require an EIS. Accordingly, we find that the DOE reasonably concluded, based upon its discretion and a thorough examination of the evidence in the record, that threat of terrorist attack by a theft and release from a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider was not significant.