Opinion ID: 807161
Heading Depth: 4
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: “Small Numbers” Determination

Text: Plaintiffs argue that, even if the Service applied a permissible “small numbers” interpretation in the 2008 final rule, the substance of the agency’s “small numbers” analysis is arbitrary and capricious because (1) it accounts for only some of the proposed oil and gas exploration activities, and (2) it relies on “unproven” or “inadequate” monitoring and mitigation techniques. Notably, however, Plaintiffs do not challenge the Service’s “negligible impact” finding, as they did in their CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY v. SALAZAR 9543 unsuccessful challenge to the Service’s 2006 Beaufort Sea incidental take regulations. See Kempthorne, 588 F.3d at 711 (upholding the Service’s “negligible impact” finding because the agency “made scientific predictions within the scope of its expertise, the circumstance in which we exercise our greatest deference”). [6] First, Plaintiffs argue that the Service’s “small numbers” determination is arbitrary and capricious because the analysis ignores expected impacts from oil and gas support operations and onshore activities. Plaintiffs concede that the Service discusses these impacts elsewhere in the final rule. See, e.g., 73 Fed. Reg. at 33,224 (“[N]oise and disturbance from aircraft and vessel traffic associated with exploration projects are expected to have relatively localized, short-term effects.”); id. at 33,227 (“Onshore activities will have the potential to interact with polar bears mainly during the fall and ice-covered season when bears come ashore to feed, den, or travel.”). It is true that the final rule’s “small numbers” analysis focuses primarily on offshore, open-water exploration activities. However, this focus is not irrational because the analysis notes that these are the areas “where the majority of the proposed activities would occur.” 73 Fed. Reg. at 33,234. Moreover, the “small numbers” analysis does refer to onshore activities, expressly noting that “[w]here terrestrial activities may occur in coastal areas of Alaska in polar bear denning habitat, specific mitigation measures will be required to minimize Industry impacts.” Id. The final rule also explains, in response to comments: [W]e expect industry operations will only interact with small numbers of these animals in open water habitats. Of course, some of the proposed explor- atory activities will occur on land as well. However, we have reviewed the proposed activities, both on land and at sea, and . . . . [t]his review leads us to conclude that, while some incidental take of wal- ruses and polar bears is reasonably expected to 9544 CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY v. SALAZAR occur, these takes will be limited to non-lethal disturbances, affecting a small number of animals . . . . Id. at 33,244 (emphasis added). [7] Second, Plaintiffs argue that the Service’s “small numbers” determination relies on mitigation and monitoring measures “that are either unproven or that have been shown to be inadequate.” However, the overall record supports the Service’s conclusion that the mitigation and monitoring measures are effective. The 2008 Chukchi Sea rule notes that “[t]he mitigation measures associated with the Beaufort Sea incidental take regulations have proven to minimize human-bear interactions and will be part of the requirements of future LOAs associated with the Chukchi Sea incidental take regulations.” Id. at 33,229. The Service’s rule listing the polar bear as threatened under the ESA notes that the “mitigative regulations” imposed on oil and gas activities “have proven to be highly successful in providing for polar bear conservation in Alaska.” 73 Fed. Reg. 28,212, 28,265-66 (May 15, 2008). Indeed, we implicitly endorsed the Service’s mitigation measures when we analyzed Plaintiffs’ challenge to the 2006 Beaufort Sea incidental take regulations under NEPA. See Kempthorne, 588 F.3d at 712 (“[T]he EA provides convincing reasons to believe that incidental take regulations will ameliorate the impact of takes. LOAs include mitigating guidelines that minimize disturbances to, among other things, denning females.”). Accordingly, we hold that the Service’s “small numbers” determination is not arbitrary and capricious.