Opinion ID: 150474
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 10

Heading: Even if We Were to Speculate About the Effect of the Statewide Qualification Criteria, Our Speculation Would Be Inconclusive

Text: Even if we were to ignore Buckley 's guidance and engage in speculation (which we do not think is proper), we would lack confidence in any of our guesses about how the statewide eligibility criteria will affect the political opportunity of minor-party candidates in safe districts. It is quite likely, for instance, that the statewide eligibility criteria will have no effect at all on the political opportunity of minor-party candidates in safe districts. The record shows that in the 2008 election, each major party appears to have been reluctant to field candidates in its opponent's safe districts. Indeed, although candidates from both major parties were eligible for full CEP funding in every district, [16] there were 72 General Assembly districts (out of a total of 187) in which one major party declined to field a candidate. Green Party II, 648 F.Supp.2d at 324. The statewide qualification criteria can hardly be said to harm the political opportunity of minor-party candidates in safe districts if the major parties are not taking advantage of the statewide eligibility criteria to field publically financed candidates in those districts. It is not at all certain, moreover, that providing public funds to a second major-party candidate will in any way affect the minor-party candidate's success at the polls. It may be that minor-party candidates have a core group of supporters that cannot be convinced to vote for a major-party candidate no matter how much money the major-party candidate spends. It is also possible that the statewide eligibility criteria could actually increase the political opportunity of some minor-party candidates. Consider a safe Democratic district, such as the district encompassing New Haven. Funding a Republican challenger in that district may force the Democratic candidate to moderate her views and campaign closer to the center of the ideological spectrum. That could cause voters on the far left of the ideological spectrum to become disenchanted with the Democratic candidate and switch their votes to the Green Party candidate. There are, therefore, some situations in which providing CEP funding to a second major-party candidate may actually help a minor-party candidate at the polls. Indeed, it is possible that the CEP's statewide eligibility criteria could dramatically improve the political opportunity of a minor party and thereby cause exactly the kind of political sea change that characterizes what Buckley called the potential fluidity of American political life. 424 U.S. at 97, 96 S.Ct. 612 (quotation marks omitted). The only time in recent memory that a minor-party candidate has won an election in Connecticut was the election of Governor Lowell Weicker on the A Connecticut Party line in 1990. See Green Party II, 648 F.Supp.2d at 325. If a minor-party candidate were able to match that achievement, then under the CEP his or her party would be deemed a major party and would, in the next election, be able to field candidates and receive full CEP funding in every legislative and statewide election. [17] Such an outcome could transform the once-minor, now-major party into a statewide political force, catalyzing the party's efforts to secure a permanent place as a third major party or, alternatively, providing the means for the party to supplant one of the two existing major parties. What is more, in order to secure full funding in every legislative and statewide election under the CEP, a minor party need not field a winning candidate in the governor's race; the party need only field a candidate who earns twenty percent of the vote in that race. See Conn. Gen.Stat. § 9-372(5). Thus, the CEP's statewide qualification criteria provide a path to state-wide viability by which minor parties can bypass the difficult process of building political support in each individual area of the state. If a minor party can field a single gubernatorial candidate who earns twenty percent of the vote, the party will immediately have access to millions of public dollars to field candidates for each state office in the next election. In that situation, the CEP's statewide eligibility criteria operate not as a burden but as a boon to minor parties that are able to achieve a small but significant measure of statewide support. Of course, our analysis in this section has been speculation. It is possible that under the CEP no minor-party candidate will ever achieve 20% of the vote in the gubernatorial election. As the District Court reasoned, moreover, it is possible that, with the benefit of full CEP funding, a second major-party candidate in a safe district will significantly reduce the political opportunity of the minor-party candidates in that district. But as we have explained, it is also possible that the statewide qualification criteria will increase the political opportunity of minor-party candidates, possibly in dramatic fashion. Thus, even if we were to ignore Buckley's guidance and speculate about the potential effect of the CEP's statewide qualification criteria on minor-party candidates, our speculation would yield no clear prediction.
In sum, we are presented with insufficient evidence that the CEP's statewide qualification criteria have, in practice, operated to reduce the strength of minor-party candidates in safe districts below that attained by such candidates before the system was put in place. Even if we were to speculate about the criteria's effects in safe districts, we would reach inconclusive resultsthe criteria may harm minor-party candidates, they may have no effect at all on minor-party candidates, and they may even help minor-party candidates. It is even possible that the CEP's statewide qualification criteria will dramatically increase the political opportunity of a minor party who gains a small but significant percentage of the vote in a gubernatorial election. As Buckley made clear, when the General Assembly designed the CEP, it was able to choose from a range of formulations of qualification criteria that would protect the public fisc and not foster factionalism and yet also recognize the public interest in the fluidity of our political affairs. 424 U.S. at 103-04, 96 S.Ct. 612. Because the CEP's statewide qualification criteria require a substantial showing of public support in a gubernatorial election, yet also provide for a dramatic expansion of a minor-party's political opportunity if it achieves that showingand because there is insufficient evidence that the statewide qualification criteria impose an unfair or unnecessary burden on minor-party candidates in safe districtswe cannot say, on this record, that the General Assembly's choice of statewide qualification criteria falls without the permissible range. Id. at 104, 96 S.Ct. 612. We therefore hold that the District Court erred in concluding that the CEP's statewide qualification criteria unconstitutionally discriminate against minor parties and their candidates.