Opinion ID: 391912
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: The 1980 Undercount Estimates Based on the 1980 Census

Text: 13 Two other significant events have occurred during the pendency of this appeal, events which we notice judicially. See Fed.R.Evid. 201. On December 11, 1980, the Census Bureau announced its decision that it would not on its own initiative, voluntarily adjust the 1980 census count for underenumeration but would obviously comply with any final court orders requiring it to do so. In a lengthy position paper supporting its position (filed with the Court at oral argument on February 12, 1981), the Census Bureau stated that it is now clear from the tabulation of 1980 returns that the head count will exceed the April 1980 estimate by a very large margin. Instead of counting 222 million people, as previously estimated, the minimum final count for the Nation as a whole has reached 225.2 million and now is expected to be between 225.7 and 226.0 million persons. These figures come close to the pre-census estimate of the head count plus the pre-census estimated undercount. In the December 11 document, the Bureau stated its view that the 1980 undercount is probably considerably smaller than in prior censuses due to the improvement of census procedures. It says that the apparent zero undercount results from the under-enumeration of legal residents being offset by enumeration of illegal residents. Based on these circumstances, the Bureau draws the conclusion: At present, the Bureau has no sound statistical basis for estimating the true undercount or introducing the adjustments. It further explains this conclusion as follows: 14 The relative undercount was probably considerably smaller in 1980 than in earlier censuses but its extent and distribution cannot be reliably defined or estimated because we are not able to measure how many illegals were present and counted. In the absence of reliable information on illegals, and in light of the data now in hand, it is clear that the true population and, hence the undercount for 1980 cannot be reliably estimated in the near term, if at all. Because of the much smaller measured undercount, it is our firm judgment on statistical grounds that adjustments for undercount are not in the public interest. 15 45 Fed.Reg. 82874 (1980). 16 The second significant event occurred February 23, 1981, when the Census Bureau released its 1980 Census Population Totals for Racial and Spanish Origin Groups in U. S. That report shows the following figures: 17 Percent United States 1980 1970 Distribution 1980 1970 Total .............. 226,504,825 203,211,926 100.0 100.0 White ............... 188,340,790 177,748,975 83.2 87.5 Black ................ 26,488,218 22,580,289 11.7 11.1 American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut .... 1,418,195 827,268 0.6 0.4 Asian and Pacific Islander ............. 3,500,636 1,538,721 1.5 0.8 Other ................. 6,756,986 516,673 3.0 0.3 ------------------- Persons of Spanish Origin .............. 14,605,883 9,072,602 6.4 4.5 Persons not of Spanish Origin ..... 211,898,942 194,139,324 93.6 95.5 The report states: 18 Comparisons with demographic estimates suggest that the 1980 undercount rate for blacks may be in the range of 4.5 to 5.5% compared to the estimated miss rate of 7.7% in 1970. In short, the Bureau feels that it may have achieved a 30-40% improvement in the undercount rate between 1970 and 1980. Similar analyses for other groups have not been completed.