Opinion ID: 3209079
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: The GEIS Thoroughly Considers

Text: Essentially Common Risks to Reactor Sites The States argue that the NRC could not generically analyze the impacts of the continued storage of spent nuclear fuel because it failed to employ “conservative bounding assumptions” in the GEIS, particularly with regard to estimating the risks of pool fires and pool leaks. Specifically, the States contend that the NRC based its environmental impact determinations on data from two reactor sites—one in Surry, Virginia, and another near Lake Michigan. According to the States, neither plant captures the full range of risks across the country because the population density near the 13 Surry plant is 300 people per square mile, and the density near the Lake Michigan plant is 860 people per square mile. See J.A. 862-63, 868, 870. Because the GEIS ignores populationwide effects and the impacts at atypical sites, the States posit that the NRC must consider these impacts on a site-specific basis. We noted in New York I that “[b]oth the Supreme Court and this court have endorsed the [NRC’s] longstanding practice of considering environmental issues through general rulemaking in appropriate circumstances.” 681 F.3d at 480. We also stated that “we see no reason that a comprehensive general analysis would be insufficient to examine on-site risks that are essentially common to all plants.” Id. Furthermore, “whether the analysis is generic or site-by-site, it must be thorough and comprehensive,” id. at 481, and we are “most deferential” to the “NRC’s technical judgments and predictions . . . [,]” Blue Ridge Env’tl Def. League v. NRC, 716 F.3d 183, 195 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). While we acknowledged in New York I that a generic analysis of impacts is “particularly” appropriate when the NRC utilizes “conservative bounding assumptions and the opportunity for concerned parties to raise site-specific differences at the time of a specific site’s licensing,” we did not make those factors essential. 681 F.3d at 480. Instead, the cornerstone of our holding was that the NRC may generically analyze risks that are “essentially common” to all plants so long as that analysis is “thorough and comprehensive.” In this case, we are convinced that the NRC has met that standard. True, the NRC’s analysis is not “bounding” in a strict sense. For example, in assessing the risks of pool fires, the GEIS relies on seismic data that covers “about 70 percent” of reactor sites. J.A. 870. This data therefore does not 14 “bound” the environmental impacts of spent fuel storage but instead approximates the variance in harms. For pool leaks, the NRC provides a high-level analysis of spent fuel discharges but neglects any estimate of the expected errors for its input variables, instead averring to specific “low” values for these parameters. See J.A. 849. Furthermore, the GEIS attempts to justify its reliance on data from the Surry and Lake Michigan plants by noting that the average risks to individuals are independent of population density. See J.A. 868. However, the NRC admits that this data covers only “the 90th percentile population density” and that “the accident consequences could be greater at higher population sites.” J.A. 868; see also J.A. 1367 (conceding that values in the GEIS “do not represent worst-case values”). Nonetheless, according deference to the NRC’s technical decision-making, see Blue Ridge, 716 F.3d at 195, we find nothing in the GEIS to undermine the NRC’s conclusion that the identified risks are “essentially common” to all reactor sites. The GEIS incorporates research demonstrating how the risk analysis for pool fires is conservative, see J.A. 1348, 1366-67, and analyzes the variance in seismic risks, see J.A. 870. The NRC also considers “typical hydrologic characteristics at nuclear power plant sites” when assessing the impacts of pool leaks. J.A. 1054. Furthermore, the GEIS “explain[s] qualitatively the factors that may cause the risk to be lower or higher than” at the Surry and Lake Michigan plants. J.A. 1367. Regardless, the NRC need not provide a perfect analysis, only one that is “thorough and comprehensive . . . .” New York I, 681 F.3d at 481. We hold that the GEIS meets this requirement. The States rely on Limerick Ecology Action, Inc. v. NRC, 869 F.2d 719, 738 (3d Cir. 1989), for the proposition that the NRC cannot generically analyze the site-specific 15 consequences of reactor accidents, and hence, we are told, also the impacts of continued storage of spent nuclear fuel. However, not only is Limerick non-binding on this Court, but we recognized in NRDC v. NRC that the Third Circuit’s dicta in Limerick “did not foreclose the possibility that [reactor accident mitigation alternatives] could be dealt with ‘generically’ through a subsequent rulemaking.” 2016 WL 1639661, at ; see also id. at  n.2. Accordingly, we deny the petitions for review on this issue.