Opinion ID: 2002109
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: Prospective Need.

Text: The Substantive Rules of the Council on Affordable Housing, which became effective in August 1986, see 18 N.J.R. 1124(b), 18 N.J.R. 1527(a), and expire in February 1996, provide that the prospective regional need for low- and moderate-income housing be calculated primarily on the basis of the estimated regional population growth from 1987, the base year for determining present need, to 1993. The population figures are divided into eight age groups or cohorts: Less than twenty-five years; twenty-five to twenty-nine years; thirty to thirty-four years; thirty-five to forty-four years; forty-five to fifty-four years; fifty-five to sixty-four years; sixty-five to seventy-four years; and seventy-five years and over. Using 1980 county-based statistics, the population growth projections are converted into estimates of growth in households, based on headship rates, which predict the expected percentages of household formation in each age group. See AMG Realty Co., supra, 207 N.J. Super. at 403, 504 A. 2d 692. After the projected number of households in each age cohort has been calculated for both 1987 and 1993, statewide 1980-based income statistics are used to project the percentage of households in each age cohort that will qualify for low- and moderate-income housing. The difference between the projected number of low- and moderate-income households in each age cohort for 1987, as compared with 1993, constitutes the projected county-wide need by age group for low- and moderate-income housing units. The county-wide figures are combined in order to arrive at the prospective need for each of the State's six regions. N.J.A.C. 5:92-5.6; 5:92  Appendix A at 92-44 to 92-46. County-wide data constitute the statistical basis from which each region's prospective need for low- and moderate-income housing has been calculated. Because prospective need is defined as the difference between the projected number of low- and moderate-income households in 1987 and 1993, and COAH's regulations became effective in 1986, the calculation of the estimated number of 1987 and 1993 low- and moderate-income households necessarily relied in part on statistical projections. The source data include the following studies: State of New Jersey, Dep't of Labor, Div. of Planning and Research, Office of Demographic and Economic Analysis, Population Estimates for New Jersey, July 1, 1984 (Trenton, NJ: Div. of Planning and Research, Sept. 1985) (1984 Population Estimates); State of New Jersey, Department of Health, New Jersey State and County Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and Race (Trenton, NJ: Center for Health Statistics, Oct. 1985) (1985 Population Estimates); State of New Jersey, Dep't of Labor, Div. of Planning and Research, Office of Demographic and Economic Analysis, Population Projections  New Jersey and Counties: 1990 to 2020 (Trenton, NJ: Div. of Planning and Research, November 1985) (1990-2020 Population Projections). See N.J.A.C. 5:92  Appendix A at 92-44, -45, and -58. The 1984 Population Estimates rely on actual 1980 census data for municipalities and counties, and include provisional estimates as of July 1, 1984, for both municipalities and counties, but without breakdowns by age cohorts. The 1985 population estimates are county-wide only, but include age-group breakdowns. The 1990-2020 Population Projections include population projections at five-year intervals on a county-wide basis only, and include breakdowns by age groups. (COAH's projections for 1993 are based on three-fifths of the difference between the 1990 and 1995 county-wide population projections.) The calculation of projected household formations is also based on county-specific headship rates. N.J.A.C. 5:92  Appendix A at 92-45. Examination of the specific underlying data used by COAH leads inescapably to the conclusion that the calculation of each region's prospective need, based on anticipated population growth and household formation by age cohort from 1987 to 1993, represents the cumulative county-wide population and household projections within each region. The underlying data do not contain municipal-population projections beyond 1984.