Opinion ID: 446520
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Primary Weight

Text: 61 Insurance Company Petitioners, repeating the argument made by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety in its petition for reconsideration, claim that, in arriving at a 15-33 pound range of primary weight reduction on the basis of estimates by automobile manufacturers, NHTSA simply excluded from its analysis the estimates of Chrysler, Volkswagen, and Mitsubishi that weight savings would be significantly less than the agency's 15-pound minimum. Brief for Insurance Company Petitioners at 37. It is true enough that NHTSA excluded those submissions, but not without sound reasons. As noted in some detail in the agency's response to petitions for reconsideration, Chrysler's 10-pound estimate was for a Phase II bumper system. Compliance with a 2.5/2.5 Phase I standard could be expected to yield additional weight savings of 1-2 pounds. 47 Fed.Reg. 56,645. More importantly, Chrysler noted that its estimate was a minimum figure. Id. Similarly, Volkswagen indicated that its 8-pound savings estimate referred only to the savings from one particular design change; total savings were expected to be higher. Id. The exclusion of Mitsubishi's low estimate of 11-13 pounds was explained by the fact that Mitsubishi sales were relatively insignificant. Since the savings estimates were not weighted to reflect the United States sales volumes of particular cars or manufacturers, the agency deleted low and high extreme estimates submitted by manufacturers with very small sales in the United States. Thus, it excluded Mitsubishi's low estimate of 11-13 pounds but also Volvo's high estimate of 39 pounds. Id. 62 Petitioner CFAS charges that, in estimating weight reductions, NHTSA failed to consider the effect of the fuel economy test procedures of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Brief for Petitioner CFAS at 30. The argument is that consumer estimation of new-car fuel economy is based upon EPA mileage ratings; and that the EPA classifies vehicles for purposes of its fuel efficiency tests according to weight classes. See 40 C.F.R. §§ 86.129-80, 600.111-80 (1983). Because vehicles in the same class, even if of different weight, will be tested as though they weigh the same, manufacturers lack the incentive to reduce a vehicle's weight unless they can achieve a weight reduction large enough to move the vehicle into the next lower class. Since the weight savings achievable under the new bumper system are small (15-33 pounds) relative to the weight class increments used by EPA (250 pounds for cars over two tons and 125 pounds for cars under two tons), manufacturers, according to CFAS, will save money by using heavier, cheaper materials and forgo the potential weight reductions. 63 It is patently false to assert that the agency failed to consider this point. See 47 Fed.Reg. 56,646. Petitioner's quarrel is with the resolution of it--and even there we think the agency not only acted within the bounds of reason but clearly has the better of the argument. It is fallacious, to begin with, to assume that consumer expectation of fuel economy is the manufacturer's only incentive to reduce weight. The agency observed that there are quite independent incentives, such as the fact that many weight-reducing changes (e.g., the removal of energy-absorbing pistons) reduce manufacturer costs. Id. Even assuming, [243 U.S.App.D.C. 135] however, that consumer expectation of fuel economy is the only incentive, that that expectation is based entirely upon EPA estimates, and that the manner of computing EPA estimates will remain unchanged (none of which assumptions we consider the agency was obliged to indulge); the petitioner's argument would still be flawed. The lumpiness of current EPA weight classes does not necessarily reduce the incentive, on average, to take advantage of small weight reductions. In designing cars, there are many small potential weight savings. The 15 to 33-pound savings offered by the new bumper standard--alone or in combination with secondary weight reductions that it makes possible--may be just enough in some cases to make it worth the manufacturer's while to implement a whole host of changes that together would be enough to move the vehicle into the next weight category. When this occurs, a far larger weight reduction is achieved than would be made possible by the bumper change itself. Thus, one might reasonably conclude that, on average, the bumper weight reduction potential would be given its full effect. 64 In addition, the agency noted that it had calculated its weight savings range from what manufacturers had told it they would in fact do, not from what they thought was theoretically possible. Id. Nothing in the record calls those intentions about future weight reductions into question. Moreover, the agency used its own studies as a check on manufacturer estimates of weight savings, id., concluding that, if anything, the 33-pound upper-range estimate was too low. 47 Fed.Reg. 21,832. We find no basis for overturning the agency's judgment on this point.