Opinion ID: 3038513
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: Salinity

Text: Appellant also points to the Army Corps’ inadequate analysis of the impacts of channel deepening on the salinity of the Columbia River estuary. Salinity has a tremendous impact on the estuary’s health. Like levels of toxins in the river, the salinity of the estuary is a matter of vital importance to the juvenile salmon which must rest and readjust in the estuary before transitioning from fresh water to salt water in the 9 Following its assertion that side-slope sediment need not be tested, the majority holds, in the alternative, that the Corp has in fact tested side-slope sediments. It bases this holding on a pathetic sample size — two samples from outside the navigation channel. To hold that two samples from outside the navigation channel, when dredging is planned for more than one hundred miles of the Columbia, satisfies NEPA standards borders on the absurd. 10132 NORTHWEST ENVIRONMENTAL ADVOCATES v. NMFS ocean. The administrative record documents that deepening the Columbia River channel over the past century and other changes to the structure of the river have “likely caused the largest changes in salinity intrusion and density stratification” in the estuary. Salmon at River’s End: The Role of the Estuary in the Decline and Recovery of Columbia River Salmon, NMFS Technical Memorandum at 99 (2001). At issue is the accuracy of the Army Corps’ models for measuring impacts of channel deepening on salinity. Contrary to the majority’s assertion, NWEA does present a “cogent challenge” to the old model, the WES model, a challenge supported by the record. NOAA Fisheries warned the Corps not to use its older salinity model because of the imprecision of its measurements of salinity in the shallow areas that are favored by salmonids: The WES model used to evaluate change in salinity intrusion was not validated nor designed to assess impacts in the shallow, side channel habitat used by salmon. In other words, an analysis is needed of whether the model would predict current conditions to determine credibility of its ability to predict future conditions. WES was not asked to conduct such an assessment, and commented that — if such valida- tion were needed — a new model would have to be developed. Notes from NOAA Fisheries meeting to “Clarify Science Issues for Columbia River Channel Deepening Project,” (Oct. 6, 2000). Heeding this admonition, the Corps developed a new model for measuring salinity, the Oregon Health and Sciences University/Oregon Graduate Institute (OHSH/OGI) model. NWEA argues that the Corps rushed development of this new salinity model and used it only to evaluate the accuracy of the older model. Furthermore, the Corps appears to have NORTHWEST ENVIRONMENTAL ADVOCATES v. NMFS 10133 employed the new salinity model too hastily, before its accuracy had been verified. The developers of the model expressed concern about reliance on its results given the uncertainty surrounding them.10 However, the Corps relied on the findings based on this highly uncertain new model to conclude that salinity would increase in the shallows by less than .5 ppt (parts per thousand) and that this would have no impact. The district court apparently relied, not on evidence within the record, but upon its own Google search about the Corps’ salinity model. The Corps relied upon a model admittedly fraught with uncertainty to reach its conclusion that the channel deepening would produce no adverse impact on the salmonids from salinity in the estuaries. I suggest that studies employing an older, inadequate model followed by complete reliance on an untested model does not constitute the “hard look” required by NEPA. IV. CONCLUSION Fundamentally, the majority takes an ostrich’s head-in-thesand approach to reviewing the agency’s analysis, settling for the Corps’ explanation without undertaking the required review of its decision making. It is true, we are not permitted to substitute our judgment for the reasoned decision of the agency. Neither, however, are we permitted to rubber-stamp the agency’s decision of what factors must be considered and what factors need not be considered without taking a detailed look at whether the agency’s reasoning is sound. Here, it is not. 10 Uncertainty as to the accuracy and adequacy of the model is compounded by the impacts of climate change on the Pacific Ocean and Columbia River — how will now-certain rising of sea level impact salinity of the estuarine lower Columbia River? We don’t know because the Corps has not considered this significant factor. 10134 NORTHWEST ENVIRONMENTAL ADVOCATES v. NMFS The “hard look” here went awry. The Corps, as it must, acknowledged profound consequences from erosion if large quantities of sand are removed from the littoral system. Anyone familiar with the Washington coastline has seen the devastation from past erosion (consequences the Corps admits were caused by its own past bad practices). The Corps acknowledges that it has designated a deep-water disposal site to hold huge quantities of dredge spoils, but has no plan of mitigation if that site is used for its intended purpose. Nor does the Corps analyze when and how much erosion is likely to occur—only that it will be profound and devastating. Its analysis of increased toxicity that may result from dredging is completely inadequate, as is its analysis of possible changes in salinity. Last, but certainly not least, the economic analysis is highly suspect. My bottom line is that the Corps has substantially more work to do. Hence my dissent.