Opinion ID: 3037600
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: APHIS’s Factual Determinations

Text: Plaintiffs further argue that the administrative record does not support the factual determinations underlying the Final Rule. They have identified four problems with the agency’s analysis which, plaintiffs contend, demonstrate that the Final Rule is arbitrary and capricious. We conclude that these objections are without merit. [3] Plaintiffs first point out that the risk management analysis improperly presented four different estimates, varying by a large margin, for the probability that a mated pair of medflies will be introduced in a medfly-suitable region. These inconsistencies are not fatal to the Final Rule. The underlying data are consistent with the figures cited in the analysis’s executive summary and with the agency’s ultimate conclusions about the likelihood of medfly introduction. Because these discrepancies within the risk management analysis do not appear to have affected APHIS’s final decision, we decline to overturn the regulation on this basis. See Alaska Dep’t of Environmental Conservation v. EPA, 540 U.S. 461, 497 (2004) (“Even when an agency explains its decision with less than ideal clarity, a reviewing court will not upset the decision on that account if the agency’s path may reasonably be discerned.”) (quotation marks and citation omitted). [4] Plaintiffs’ second objection concerns the risk management analysis’s estimate of eight as the maximum number of larvae per fruit that will lead to viable adults. Plaintiffs assert that this estimate is baseless because the agency’s direct sampling in 2001 indicated that the average larvae per fruit varied between four and twelve. We are unpersuaded by this argu6384 CACTUS CORNER v. USDA ment for two reasons. First, the estimate used in the risk management analysis is not equivalent to the figure cited by plaintiffs. The risk management analysis estimated the number of viable larvae (i.e., those that will reach adulthood), while the 2001 sampling data merely represents the number of larvae observed, without adjusting for larvae mortality. Although APHIS discovered clementines that contained as many as twelve larvae, only about 10% of those larvae would be expected to reach adulthood. Plaintiffs argue that this 90% mortality rate is offset by the fact that only 10% of larvae are detected, but the detection rate cited by plaintiffs is based on grapefruit data. Although the agency discussed this grapefruit data in the risk management analysis, APHIS never assumed that the detection rate for grapefruit is identical to the clementine’s, a decision supported by the agency’s observation that the characteristics of these fruits differ.3 Indeed, elsewhere APHIS assumed that medflies are more easily detected in clementines than in grapefruit. Compare A.R. 1401 (citing a study in which only 35% of infested grapefruit were detected) with 67 Fed. Reg. at 64736 (assuming that 75% of infested clementines will be detected). In short, the 2001 sampling data does not support plaintiffs’ claim that the maximum number of viable larvae is greater than eight. [5] The second reason we reject plaintiffs’ argument is that, even if the 2001 sampling data would support a different estimate than the one chosen, APHIS was within its discretion in using an alternative method to calculate this value. The agency relied on a 1999 study of clementines which suggested that the maximum survival rate for medfly larvae is less than 8%. Conservatively assuming that an infested clementine could contain up to 100 eggs, the risk management analysis estimated that the maximum number of viable larvae was eight. See A.R. 1402-03 ((100 eggs per fruit) x (maximum 3 “We note . . . that clementines are smaller fruit than grapefruit and have therefore a much larger surface area to inspect. Clementines are also easier to dissect than grapefruit.” A.R. 1401. CACTUS CORNER v. USDA 6385 survival rate of .0765) = 8 viable larvae per fruit). Because we “defer to the evaluations of agencies when the evidence presents conflicting views,” Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations v. Bureau of Reclamation, 426 F.3d 1082, 1090 (9th Cir. 2005), we reject this challenge to the Final Rule. Third, plaintiffs maintain that the Final Rule’s control measures cannot logically fix the medfly problem, because the infestation rate observed in 2001 was 0.16% while the Final Rule only protects against infestation rates greater than 1.5%.4 Plaintiffs thus question how “[l]imiting the maximum infestation rate under the Rule to a value almost ten times higher than the infestation rate in 2001 would [ ] be expected to make a difference.” But APHIS addressed this issue in the Final Rule, explaining that it was “unconvinced that the level of infestation observed in samples taken later in the shipping season are representative of” the infestation rates that existed earlier in the season. 67 Fed. Reg. at 64713. APHIS believed that the medfly infestation rates in Spain varied over the course of the 2001-2002 shipping season. The agency concluded that these rates were greater than 0.16% early in the season, when the first shipments reached American shores. It was within these early-season clementines, which were on the market by November 2001, that live medfly larvae were found. According to APHIS, by the time it began collecting data later that season, the infestation rates had fallen. Because “the infestations associated with early season shipments” were greater than 0.16%, APHIS chose not to rely on its sampling data in the risk management analysis. Id. at 64714. 4 APHIS can detect infestation levels as low as 1.5% because the Final Rule requires that “APHIS inspectors [ ] cut and inspect 200 fruit that are randomly selected” from each shipment of clementines. 7 C.F.R. § 319.56-2jj(f). By sampling 200 fruit, there is a 95% probability that the agency will detect medfly larvae in shipments in which only 1.5% of the clementines are infested. 67 Fed. Reg. at 64712. 6386 CACTUS CORNER v. USDA [6] The agency’s assumption, that the early-season infestation rates exceeded 0.16%, is supported by empirical evidence, including the “higher than average trap captures” and “higher than average temperatures” that existed early in the season. Id. Because APHIS addressed plaintiffs’ specific concern, and its selection of the target rate is otherwise defensible, we will not disturb the agency’s judgment. See Pacific Coast, 426 F.3d at 1090 (“an agency must have discretion to rely on the reasonable opinions of its own qualified experts”) (citation omitted). [7] Fourth, Plaintiffs challenge the revised cold treatment protocol, arguing that APHIS was wrong to implement this protocol because the agency’s experts could not validate the protocol’s effectiveness. Although a panel of experts recommended further research in May 2002, APHIS subsequently conducted the ORACBA study, whose results demonstrated “a high degree of confidence” that the revised treatment protocol “should achieve the probit 9 level of security.” Given the ORACBA results, APHIS’s decision to implement the revised protocol did not “run[ ] counter to the evidence before the agency.” Id. (citation omitted). In their reply brief, plaintiffs argue for the first time that the ORACBA report does not support the risk management analysis’s assumption that the revised protocol will result in probit 9 mortality. They contend that the ORACBA report only supports the use of an 18-day treatment, and that the report’s conclusions regarding the 14-day treatment (which is permitted under the Final Rule) are inapplicable because ORACBA relied on a study of lemons, not clementines. This argument is without merit. Even assuming that plaintiffs could properly raise this issue in the reply brief, we decline plaintiffs’ invitation to second-guess the agency. In promulgating the Final Rule, APHIS considered and addressed numerous comments pertaining to the revised cold treatment protocol, including concerns about the efficacy of treatments shorter than 18 days. See, e.g., 67 Fed. Reg. at 64730-64733. The agency’s CACTUS CORNER v. USDA 6387 reliance on a study of lemons in devising the 14-day protocol was a discretionary judgment call to which we defer. See Pacific Coast, 426 F.3d at 1090.