Opinion ID: 3066157
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: The BiOp’s determination of OMR flow limits was

Text: influenced by more than Figures B-13 and B-14 The district court’s experts concluded that it was the BiOp’s apparent exclusive reliance on Figures B-13 and B-14 that was problematic: as they acknowledged, the figures could be useful in tandem with other analyses and data. The district court therefore based its invalidation of the !5,000 cfs OMR flow limit on its finding that the limit “depend[s] so heavily” on Figures B-13 and B-14. San Luis & DeltaMendota, 760 F. Supp. 2d at 968. After conducting an independent review of the record, however, we hold that the BiOp’s determination of OMR flow limits was sufficiently influenced by several other population-level analyses in addition to Figures B-13 and B-14. Together with Figures B- 13 and B-14, these analyses provide substantial evidence that supports the BiOp’s !5,000 cfs OMR flow limit. First, the BiOp expressly notes that it employed multiple analyses in determining the OMR flow limits, stating with regards to Actions 1 and 2 that “recent analyses indicate that cumulative adult entrainment and salvage are lower when OMR flows are no more negative than !5,000 cfs in the December through March period.” BiOp at 281 (emphasis added). Although the BiOp fails to specify exactly which studies it relies on,25 at least one of these studies is the BiOp does not exclusively rely on Figures B-13 and B-14 in determining the OMR flow limits. 25 The BiOp should have been more explicit in describing exactly which studies it used in its analysis. Had the BiOp been similarly vague throughout its analysis, its lack of specificity may have presented a problem. Here, however, the BiOp has provided sufficient support for its conclusions. SAN LUIS V. JEWELL 65 contextually apparent: a 2008 study by Wim J. Kimmerer, Losses of Sacramento River Chinook Salmon and Delta Smelt to Entrainment, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science (hereinafter “Kimmerer 2008”). Kimmerer’s study was referred to throughout the BiOp, and his data was reproduced in a chart estimating adult entrainment. BiOp at 281. The Kimmerer 2008 study quantified the relationship between population losses and OMR flows between 1995 and 2006, concluding—consistent with Figure B-14—that as OMR flow becomes more negative, delta smelt population losses increase. Moreover, in Figure E-4, the FWS read Kimmerer 2008 to show that when OMR flows are more negative than !5,000 cfs—the “break” observed in Figure B- 13—population loss typically exceeds 10 percent. BiOp at 250 (Figure E-4). Figure E-4 shows a strong correlation between flows more negative than !5,000 cfs and high smelt population losses, supporting Figure B-13’s “break.” See BiOp at 250; see also BiOp at 213 (discussing Figure E-4).26 26 Even if Figure E-4’s correlation were less apparent, not all analyses will yield clear “change points,” and therefore the fact that none is immediately apparent in a study does not mean that the study cannot support an agency’s specifically defined limits; such a holding would effectively prohibit an agency from setting exact limits in any circumstance in which a clear change point did not emerge from the data. In the present situation, Kimmerer 2008 and Figure E-4 present a reasonable justification for a !5,000 cfs limit, which does appear to be an approximate point of some significance. That Kimmerer 2008 may also provide a reasonable justification for a !4,999 or a !5,001 limit does not make the FWS’s policy choice arbitrary and capricious, especially given the significant deference owed to the agency in our review. To do so smacks more of strict scrutiny than arbitrary and capricious review under the APA and ESA. Even were the range of the limit justified by Kimmerer 2008 substantially greater than this, and it most likely is, it is not appropriate for 66 SAN LUIS V. JEWELL Second, the BiOp was more explicit in describing its bases for determining the !5,000 cfs limit for Action 3, stating that “[t]he OMR flows associated with the protectiveness criteria defined above have been derived from particle tracking modeling27 with the input assumptions defined below.” BiOp at 360. Because Action 3 protects larval and juvenile delta smelt specifically, which are generally smaller than 20 mm (0.79 inches)—too small for salvage facility tracking—particle tracking modeling was necessary to estimate Action 3 entrainment. BiOp at 282. The district court appears to have misunderstood the distinction between the analyses supporting the Action 1 and 2 limits and those supporting the Action 3 limits. San Luis & Delta-Mendota, 760 F. Supp. 2d at 922 (finding that the FWS derived the !5,000 cfs limit for Action 3 from the district court’s previous order, from a non-linear DWR model, and from Figure B-13, failing to mention the particle tracking modeling). The particle tracking modeling results are reflected in the BiOp’s figure B-16, and demonstrate a low risk of entrainment as long as OMR flows remain below !2,000 cfs, increasing to a 20 percent risk at !3,500 cfs. BiOp at 366–67. The high entrainment at more negative flows would potentially place at risk 80 percent of all larval/juvenile smelt over the period of the approximately four months that Action 3 is under effect. BiOp at 366. As the OMR flow approaches !5,000 cfs, the modeling predicts that smelt entrainment will near 100 percent at multiple a reviewing court to second guess the agency’s scientific judgments in such matters where, as is the case here, the agency’s determination appears to fall within the data-justified range. 27 Particle tracking modeling simulates larval fish by inserting neutrally buoyant particles into a model domain with flow conditions. SAN LUIS V. JEWELL 67 stations. BiOp at 367. Given such findings, the FWS did not act unreasonably in setting the OMR flow limits; the particle tracking modeling completed for Action 3 provides independent support for the OMR limits. Third, the DWR recommended to the FWS that it set the parameters at !5,000 cfs. In its informal comments to the FWS, it recommended that “[t]he justification for using a range of !5000 to !1250 cfs OMR rather than the !5000 cfs the FWS, USBR, and DWR proposed to the District Court last summer should be more clearly explained.” In formal comments submitted to Reclamation just two weeks before the BiOp was due, the DWR criticized the RPA Component 1 (Action 2) because it “call[ed] for much more restrictive Old and Middle River Flows than supported by the best available data to reasonably minimize entrainment of adult delta smelt.” As the DWR noted, the “proposed flows range from !1,250 cfs to !5,000 cfs. The current set flow of !5,000 cfs should be used except in specific circumstances relating to fish survey and salvage data, because it is better supported by the available scientific information.” (emphasis added) The DWR added that [i]n DWR’s October 16 submittal we presented the monthly analysis of Old and Middle River (OMR) flows and salvage of adult delta smelt that was also provided to Judge Wanger in 2007. This analysis appears to have been ignored by the FWS even though the analysis is more highly predictive of adult delta smelt salvage than any of the analysis presented by the FWS in the Draft BO. It clearly shows that when the monthly OMR 68 SAN LUIS V. JEWELL flows are more negative than about !5,000 cfs., the risk of salvage increases dramatically. .... Given the lack of clear relationship between salvage and population effects, any constraints on salvage needs to focus on avoiding peak entrainment events rather than attempting to eliminate salvage. Therefore, we again suggest that this analysis be included in the BO and that the !5,000 cfs OMR flows on a 14 day average period be used except in rare circumstances where the data indicates that less negative flows are needed to protect against peak entrainment events. (emphasis added). Fourth, in its comments on an early draft BiOp, the independent peer review also urged consideration of the relationship between salvage and OMR flows: “[The relationship between OMR flows and salvage] is a sound and valuable way to set targets to reduce entrainment. The USFWS also presents a reasonable regression analysis to determine the break-point in the OMR-salvage relationship . . . . The breakpoints determined by these analyses were used to justify the selection of target OMR flows.”28 It was not arbitrary and capricious for the FWS to rely on DWR’s own 28 At the same time, the DWR criticized the draft because “the analysis appeared to be well done but was poorly described and largely undocumented.” SAN LUIS V. JEWELL 69 expertise and views on the appropriate flow limits, even if it did not accept DWR’s preferred recommendation. Finally, we have one last observation in this area. When the district court remanded the 2005 BiOp as arbitrary and capricious—a BiOp that concluded that the operations of CVP and SWP would not adversely affect the delta smelt—the district court ordered Reclamation and DWR to “operate the CVP and SWP to achieve a daily average net upstream (reverse) flow in the OMR not to exceed [!]5,000 cfs on a seven-day running average.” San Luis & DeltaMendota, 760 F. Supp. 2d at 863–64. During the drafting of the BiOp, an interagency delta smelt team (known as the “Delta Smelt OCAP BO Technical Team”) “discussed the merits of using !5,000 OMR per Wanger Order rather than !3,500 OMR as recommended in the proposed draft action.” Notes of the meeting state: The !5,000 OMR cap was established by Wanger. The Team discussed the biological needs of the smelt to remove jeopardy and adverse modification. What might have worked in the year 2002 might not work correctly in 2009 because the population has crashed. It was suggested that scaling the amount of protection to the fall mid-water trawl (FMWT) (i.e. an estimate of abundance) would be helpful. .... If !5,000 OMR is the cap to protect adults, then the cap for Action #3 should be less than that, because the juvenile behave more like 70 SAN LUIS V. JEWELL particles. . . . OMR rates directly relate to zone of entrainment. If fish are really out of the central Delta then perhaps !5,000 OMR might provide sufficient protection. However, it is extremely difficult to determine when fish are out of South/Central Delta. The district court criticized the FWS for relying on “a provisional court order, entered as a remedial stopgap measure pending comprehensive scientific analysis.” San Luis & Delta-Mendota, 760 F. Supp. 2d at 896. We understand the district court’s concern and agree with the court’s general proposition that evidence used to support a “stopgap measure” is not, without more, substantial evidence supporting a final measure. But we also think the principle is not so easily applied in this case. As the district court noted, its 2007 order—in which the !5,000 cfs figure was found—was based on an evidentiary hearing in which two studies were introduced that considered the relationship between OMR flows and delta smelt salvage. Id. According to the district court, one of these studies was the basis for B- 13. The FWS can hardly be faulted for thinking that the district court’s acceptance of those studies and the issuing of an order with real-world consequences for people and smelt might present at least a prima facie case for the !5,000 cfs figure. We understand and agree with the district court that if the district court’s interim order was the sole basis for the FWS’s BiOp that it would not constitute substantial evidence. But, in 2008, the FWS was at least entitled to rely on the studies the district court had accepted (albeit on an interim basis) in 2007. The interagency team’s infelicitous reference to the “Wanger Order” was surely a shorthand for the SAN LUIS V. JEWELL 71 evidence on which the district court based its interim order, and not just the order itself. Additionally, we can take notice of the fact that by 2008, when the BiOp was issued, the FWS had a year’s experience living under the district court’s order, as the members of the interagency delta smelt team undoubtedly knew. Again, if the “Wanger Order” was the sole evidence in the record for the FWS’s RPA Component 2 (Action 3), we would not hesitate to find that the agency had not relied on the “best scientific data available,” but where the !5,000 cfs figure in the Wanger Order was one more data point for the agency, we cannot find that the agency’s reference is irrelevant or improper.