Opinion ID: 410990
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: The federal standard of allowable inferences

Text: 12 Defendant contends that the judgment can be sustained even if a federal standard is applied, because the inferences necessarily drawn by the jury were not reasonable or allowable ones. Defendant cites cases such as Smith v. General Motors Corp., 227 F.2d 210 (5th Cir.1955), and McNamara v. American Motors Corp., 247 F.2d 445 (5th Cir.1957), for the proposition that if the inference is only a guess or a possibility, or is no more probable than one of several others, then a verdict must be directed for defendant. Smith, supra, 227 F.2d at 213. 3 There are two distinct thoughts in this statement. The first is that an inference is not reasonable if it is only a guess or a possibility, for such an inference is not based on the evidence but is pure conjecture and speculation. This proposition is undoubtedly sound. See, e.g., Green v. Reynolds Metals Co., 328 F.2d 372 (5th Cir.1964). The second proposition is that, even though an inference supporting the verdict is a reasonable one, it cannot stand if there are other equally probable inferences; that is, where a case is proved by circumstantial evidence the court must find that the preponderance of evidence supports the plaintiff, and if there are two or more equally probable inferences only one of which supports the plaintiff a verdict must be directed for the defendant. This rule of equally probable inferences is no longer sound. 13 In Planters Manufacturing Co. v. Protection Mutual Insurance Co., 380 F.2d 869 (5th Cir.), cert. denied, 389 U.S. 930, 88 S.Ct. 293, 19 L.Ed.2d 282 (1967), the rule of equally probable inferences was rejected. The court explained that the rule was based on the Supreme Court's precedent in Pennsylvania R.R. v. Chamberlin, 288 U.S. 333, 53 S.Ct. 391, 77 L.Ed. 819 (1932), which had been superseded by Lavender v. Kurn, 327 U.S. 645, 66 S.Ct. 740, 90 L.Ed. 916 (1946). 4 Id. 380 F.2d at 872-74. The court held that 14 it is immaterial that evidence may equally support an inconsistent inference, if in fact fairminded men might draw from the evidence the inference sought by the [opponent to a directed verdict].... The question, then, is whether [the] evidence ... constitutes a basis from which the jury might with reason have inferred [for the plaintiff], and it is no answer to that question to say that a conflicting inference might with equal probability have been drawn therefrom. 15 Id. at 878. Accord, Continental Ore Co. v. Union Carbide Corp., 370 U.S. 690, 696, 82 S.Ct. 1404, 1409, 8 L.Ed.2d 777 (1962) (we are bound to give the [plaintiff] the benefit of all inferences which the evidence fairly supports even though contrary inferences might reasonably be drawn). See generally, 9 Wright & Miller, Federal Practice and Procedure, Sec. 2528 at 563-68 (1971). 5 16 Smith v. General Motors, supra, and similar cases were decided at a time when state law controlled the sufficiency of the evidence in diversity cases. Under the modern case law applying a federal standard, a verdict based on circumstantial evidence is not infirm simply because the evidence supports an equally probable inference to the contrary. It is the jury that chooses among allowable inferences. The standard for determining whether an inference is allowable is generally whether it is a reasonable one, that is, whether it is one that reasonable and fair-minded men in the exercise of impartial judgment might draw from the evidence. Boeing Company v. Shipman, supra, 411 F.2d at 375. An inference is not unreasonable simply because it is based in part on conjecture, for an inference by definition is at least partially conjectural. Helene Curtis Industries, Inc. v. Pruitt, 385 F.2d 841, 851 (5th Cir.1967), cert. denied, 391 U.S. 913, 88 S.Ct. 1806, 20 L.Ed.2d 652 (1968). Yet a jury will not be allowed to engage in a degree of speculation and conjecture that renders its finding a guess or mere possibility. Id. Such an inference is infirm because it is not based on the evidence. Unavoidably, [i]n deciding how much the jury can speculate ... [t]he line of demarcation which we are required to walk is ephemeral. Id.