Opinion ID: 209534
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Six State and Local Disparity Studies

Text: The primary focus of the district court’s compelling interest analysis, and of the parties’ arguments on appeal, is the evidentiary strength of six particular disparity studies conducted at the state or local level. A disparity study, in this context, is a study attempting to measure the difference—or disparity—between the number of contracts or contract dollars actually awarded to minority-owned businesses in a particular contract market, on the one hand, and the number of contracts or contract dollars that one would expect to be awarded to minority-owned business given their presence in that particular contract market, on the other hand. Disparity studies can be relevant to the compelling interest analysis because, as Justice O’Connor has explained, “[w]here there is a significant statistical disparity between the number of qualified minority contractors willing and able to perform a particular service and the number of such contractors actually engaged by [a] locality or the locality’s prime contractors, an inference of discriminatory exclusion could arise.” Croson, 488 U.S. at 509; see also W.H. Scott Constr., 199 F.3d at 218 (“Given Croson’s emphasis on statistical evidence, other courts considering equal protection challenges to minority-participation programs have looked to disparity indices, or to computations of disparity percentages, in determining whether Croson’s evidentiary burden is satisfied.”). Here, the district court reviewed the parameters and findings of one state-wide and five local disparity studies, and concluded that these studies “analyze evidence of discrimination from a diverse cross-section of jurisdictions across the United States, and 2008-1017 23 they constitute prima facie evidence of a nation-wide pattern or practice of discrimination in public and private contracting.” Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 838-39. On appeal, Rothe argues that the district court was wrong to rely on these studies because (1) the data analyzed by the studies was stale by the time of the 2006 reenactment, (2) the studies were not truly “before Congress,” (3) the studies are methodologically flawed and therefore unreliable, and (4) the studies do not establish that DOD itself has played any role in the discriminatory exclusion of minority-owned contractors. We will address each argument in turn.
Rothe argues that “[t]he extremely great weight of authority” holds that data more than five years old is necessarily stale for purposes of measuring contracting disparities, and that therefore “most of the data in most of the six studies and all of the data in some of the studies was stale” by the time of the 2006 reenactment. Rothe Br. at 29-30. 7 Rothe points to the recommendation of the USCCR that “Federal officials must discard disparity studies conducted using data that is more than five years old,” 8 and to the statements of experts relied on by the USCCR in reaching this recommendation (including Professor George R. La Noue, Rothe’s expert in previous stages of this case). Beyond the USCCR report, however, Rothe points to no judicial authority finding 7 In the aggregate, the studies covered data pertaining to contracts awarded as early as 1995 and as late as 2003. See Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 839 (New York City data from 1997-2002; Alameda County data from 2000-2003; Cuyahoga County data from 1998-2000; Dallas data from 1997-2000; Cincinnati data from 1995-2001; Virginia data from 1997-2002). 8 USCCR, Disparity Studies as Evidence of Discrimination in Federal Contracting 79 (May 2006) (“USCCR Disparity Studies”), available at http://www.usccr.gov/pubs/DisparityStudies5-2006.pdf (last visited Sept. 27, 2008). 2008-1017 24 that data more than five years old is stale per se, and we decline to adopt such a per se rule here. Indeed, as the district court noted, other circuit courts have relied on studies containing data more than five years old when conducting compelling interest analyses. See Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 839 n.86; W. States Paving Co. v. Wash. State Dep’t of Transp., 407 F.3d 983, 992 (9th Cir. 2005) (relying on the Appendix, published in 1996); Sherbrooke Turf, Inc. v. Minn. Dep’t of Transp., 345 F.3d 964, 970 (8th Cir. 2003) (same). Here, the district court considered the USCCR’s recommendation but declined to follow it, explaining that the court “must realistically focus on the availability of current data,” and finding that the data used in the six studies is not stale because it “was the most current data available at the time that these studies were performed [between 2002 and 2005].” Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 840. While we certainly agree with the USSCR that researchers should use current data when possible, we agree with the district court that Congress “should be able to rely on the most recently available data so long as that data is reasonably up-to-date.” Id.; see also Rothe III, 262 F.3d at 1331 (whether evidence is stale “is a factual question for the district court to resolve”). Because these disparity studies analyzed data pertaining to contracts awarded as recently as 2000 or even 2003, and because Rothe does not point to more recent, available data, 9 we affirm the district court’s conclusion that the data analyzed in these six disparity studies was not stale at the relevant time. 9 Rothe notes that DOD and the SBA collect data on the race of certain subcontractors, and implies that this data is more recent than the data analyzed in the disparity studies. Rothe Br. at 5. But Rothe concedes that DOD does not yet “centrally access” this data, and thus Rothe fails to establish that DOD could have compiled this data for Congress at the time of the 2006 reenactment. Id. 2008-1017 25
Rothe next argues that the district court was wrong to rely on the six disparity studies because “[t]here is no proof [the studies] were ever ‘before’ Congress,” or that they were ever “subject to any kind of analysis, hearing, or findings.” Rothe Br. at 27. In Rothe V, we explained that for evidence to be relevant in the strict scrutiny analysis, it “must be proven to have been before Congress prior to enactment of the racial classification.” 413 F.3d at 1338. It would be error for the district court to rely on studies without “a finding that [they] were put before Congress prior to the date of the present reauthorization in relation to section 1207 and to ground its enactment.” Id. Taking note of our holding, the district court found in Rothe VI that “[a]lthough the full text of these six disparity studies was not printed in the Congressional Record, . . . the repeated reference to these studies in Congressional hearings and floor debates indicates that these studies were before Congress.” 499 F. Supp. 2d at 839 n.83. The district court cited floor speeches by Senator Ted Kennedy and Representative Cynthia McKinney, in which these members of Congress referred to the six disparity studies by title, author, and date. See id. at 835-38. 10 Beyond these floor speeches, however, the district court did not identify any further references to the studies in Congressional proceedings—in particular, the court did not identify a single hearing at which the studies were named or discussed. On appeal, DOD does not identify any hearings to which the district court might have been referring, and Rothe contends—apparently 10 For example, Senator Kennedy stated in a floor speech on November 10, 2005, that “[y]ears of Congressional hearings have shown that minorities historically have been excluded from both public and private construction contracts in general,” and later stated that “[such] problems are detailed in many recent disparity studies, including [the six studies at issue here].” 151 Cong. Rec. S12668-01, 2005 WL 3018127 (Nov. 10, 2005). 2008-1017 26 uncontroverted by DOD—that these six studies were not in fact discussed at any Congressional hearings. Audio Recording of Oral Arg., available at http://oralarguments.cafc.uscourts.gov/mp3/2008-1017.mp3, at 10:30-11:00. Although we are mindful that Congress has broad discretion to regulate its internal proceedings, see Am. Fed’n of Gov’t Employees v. United States, 330 F.3d 513, 522 (D.C. Cir. 2003), we are hesitant to conclude that the mere mention of a statistical study in a speech on the floor of the House of Representatives or the Senate is sufficient to put the study “before Congress” for purposes of Congress’ obligation to amass a “strong basis in evidence” for race-conscious action. We recognize that there is no dispute that these six studies were completed prior to the 2006 reenactment of Section 1207, and in that sense they were indeed “before” the acting legislature. But beyond their mere mention, there is no indication that these studies were debated or reviewed by members of Congress or by any witnesses. Cf. Sherbrooke Turf, 345 F.3d at 969-70 (relying on the Appendix, itself “a Department of Justice summary of more than fifty documents and thirty congressional hearings on minority-owned businesses prepared in response to the Adarand decision” (emphasis added)). And because Congress made no findings concerning these studies, we cannot even broach the question of whether to defer to Congress in any respect regarding them. 11 Cf. Croson, 488 U.S. at 500 (“The factfinding process of legislative bodies is generally entitled to a presumption of regularity and deferential review by the judiciary. . . . But when a 11 Findings regarding the disparity studies, however, are to be distinguished from formal findings of discrimination by DOD, which Congress was emphatically not required to make. See Dean v. City of Shreveport, 438 F.3d 448, 455 (5th Cir. 2006) (“[T]he government need not incriminate itself with a formal finding of discrimination prior to using a race-conscious remedy.”). 2008-1017 27 legislative body chooses to employ a suspect classification, it cannot rest upon a generalized assertion as to the classification’s relevance to its goals.”). Ultimately, however, we need not decide whether these six studies were put before Congress, because we will hold in any event that the studies do not provide a substantially probative and broad-based statistical foundation necessary for the “strong basis in evidence” that must be the predicate for nationwide, race-conscious action.
Rothe contends that the six disparity studies contain methodological defects, relating primarily to the studies’ availability analyses, which render their conclusions about the existence of certain disparities unreliable. The district court acknowledged Rothe’s contentions, but rejected them as unsupported by “expert report[s] or other competent summary judgment evidence.” Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d. at 847; see also id. at 847 n.96 (“None of [Rothe’s] expert reports address the six disparity studies cited by McKinney and Kennedy in support of the 2006 Reauthorization.”); id. at 848 (“Rothe failed to rebut the statistical evidence contained in any of the six disparity studies with ‘credible, particularized’ evidence from its own expert reports.”); id. at 851 (“Rothe’s generalized objections regarding the alleged deficiencies of the Ohio Disparity Study are conclusory and are not competent summary judgment evidence.”); id. at 859 (“[T]he argument of counsel regarding the alleged deficiencies of the [Cincinnati] study are not competent summary judgment evidence.”). This was error. In Rothe III, we instructed the district court to “undertake the same type of detailed, skeptical, non-deferential analysis undertaken by the Croson Court,” because “Congress is entitled to no deference in determining whether Congress 2008-1017 28 had a compelling interest in enacting the racial classification” (as opposed to deference in the conduct of its factfinding proceedings). 262 F.3d at 1321. Many of Rothe’s objections to the six disparity studies at issue here are of the same general character as the objections articulated by Justice O’Connor to the statistical evidence offered by the government in Croson—i.e., objections to the parameters used to select the relevant pool of contractors. The potential pitfalls of race-conscious legislation are far too great for a court to dismiss such objections as incompetently offered, rather than to address them on their merits. See Regents of Univ. of Cal. v. Bakke, 438 U.S. 265, 291 (1978) (opinion of Powell, J.) (“Racial and ethnic distinctions of any sort are inherently suspect and thus call for the most exacting judicial examination.”), quoted in Parents Involved, 127 S. Ct. at 2764-65 (2007); Fullilove v. Klutznick, 448 U.S. 448, 491 (1990) (“Any preference based on racial or ethnic criteria must necessarily receive a most searching examination.”), quoted in Adarand III, 515 U.S. at 223, and Wygant, 476 U.S. at 273 (plurality opinion of Powell, J.). Rather than remand this case a third time, however, we will consider here whether these studies are sufficiently probative for purposes of Congress’ burden to amass a “strong basis in evidence.” We note that although there are six studies, four of them were conducted by the same research consultant—Mason Tillman Associates— and employ very similar methodologies. The two remaining studies—the Cincinnati study, by Griffin & Strong, and the Virginia study, by MGT of America—are similar to the others in some basic respects. As the district court explained, all of the studies sought to calculate a ratio “between the expected contract amount of a given race/gender group and the actual 2008-1017 29 contract amount received by that group.“ Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 842 (citing the New York City study). In general, “[a] disparity ratio less than 0.80”—i.e., a finding that a given minority group received less than eighty percent of the expected amount— “indicates a relevant degree of disparity,” and might support an inference of discrimination. Id.; see, e.g., Eng’g Contractors Ass’n of S. Fla., Inc. v. Metro. Dade County, 122 F.3d 895, 914 (11th Cir. 1997) (“In general . . . disparity indices of 80% [i.e., 0.80] or greater, which are close to full participation, are not considered indications of discrimination.”). The district court reviewed the various disparity ratios found by each of the six studies for each of several minority groups in each of several industry categories, see Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 835-64, and we will not repeat them all. For example, however, the New York City study determined that Black Americans represented 16.72% of available construction firms but received only 1.7% of prime construction contract dollars, a statistically significant underutilization which can be expressed as a disparity ratio of 0.10. Other disparity ratios found by the studies included, for further example, 0.30 for Asian American firms in Alameda County construction subcontracts, 0.03 for Hispanic firms in Virginia professional services contracts, and 0.14 for Native American firms in Cincinnati supplies and services contracts during fiscal year 2000. Rothe’s primary objection to the six disparity studies regards their availability analysis, or benchmark analysis—i.e., the steps taken to ensure that only those minority-owned contractors who are qualified, willing, and able to perform the prime contracts at issue are considered when forming the denominator of a disparity ratio. See Croson, 488 U.S. at 501-02 (“[W]here special qualifications are necessary, the 2008-1017 30 relevant statistical pool for purposes of demonstrating discriminatory exclusion must be the number of minorities qualified to undertake the particular task.”). As Professor Ian Ayres, DOD’s expert in previous stages of this case, explained in a written statement before the USCCR, “the crucial question in disparity studies is to develop a credible methodology to estimate this benchmark share of contracts minorities would receive in the absence of discrimination,” and “[t]he touchstone for measuring the benchmark is to determine whether the firm is ‘ready, willing, and able’ to do business with the government.” J.A. at A777 (USCCR Disparity Studies, supra note 7, at 66). Rothe contends that these six studies misapplied this “touchstone” of Croson, and erroneously included any minority-owned firm that was deemed willing or potentially willing and able, without regard to whether that firm was qualified. In particular, Rothe objects to the studies’ use of lists compiled by local business associations, and of community outreach, to identify minority-owned businesses. After reviewing the availability analyses contained in the six studies, we conclude that this defect does not substantially undercut the results of the four studies conducted by Mason Tillman Associates, because the bulk of the businesses considered in these studies were identified in ways that would tend to establish their qualifications, such as by their presence on city contract records and bidder lists. See, e.g., J.A. at A2999 (New York City study: of available prime contractors owned by minorities or women (“M/WBEs”), 23.48 percent were identified via “Prime Contractor Utilization,” 76.22 percent identified via “Certification Lists,” and 0.30 percent identified via “Willingness Survey of Chamber Membership and Trade Association Membership Lists”); J.A. at A1578 (Dallas study: “77.04 percent of the prime contractors available in the four industries combined were 2008-1017 31 obtained from public agency and certification lists,” including “[m]ore than 75 percent of the M/WBEs,” while “[c]ompanies identified through outreach only were 26.35 percent of the M/WBEs”); J.A. at 1943 (Cuyahoga County study: “90.71 percent of the prime contractors available in the four industries combined were obtained from either utilized prime contractors, bidder lists, or certification lists,” including “73.42 percent of the [M/WBEs],” while “4.52 percent [of the M/WBEs] were identified solely through community meetings”); J.A. at A2674 (Alameda County study: of available prime contractor M/WBEs, 55.17 percent identified via “Alameda County and Other Government Records,” 37.43 percent identified via “Agency Certification Lists,” 0.57 percent identified via “Business Outreach Events,” 1.54 percent via “Trade Association Membership Lists,” and 5.29 percent identified via “Chamber Membership Lists”). We are less confident in this aspect of the Virginia and Cincinnati studies, because the availability methodology employed in those studies appears less likely to have weeded out unqualified businesses. See J.A. at A1780 (Cincinnati study: requiring only that a firm “does business within an industry group from which the City of Cincinnati makes certain purchases”; that “[t]he firm’s owner has demonstrated that he or she believes the firm is qualified and able to perform the work” (emphasis added); and that “[b]y the owner’s actions, he or she has demonstrated an interest in obtaining work from the entity”); J.A. at A2128 (Virginia study: “For our analysis we used vendor data as the basis of the availability component . . . . Using this approach, we assume that all firms in the relevant market area are ready, willing, and able to do work for the Commonwealth at the prime or sub level.” (emphasis added)). 2008-1017 32 We are even more troubled, however, by the failure of five of the studies to account sufficiently for potential differences in size, or relative capacity, of the businesses included in those studies. As Professor Ayres explained to the USCCR, “‘qualified’ firms may have substantially different capacities,” and thus might be expected to bring in substantially different amounts of business even in the absence of discrimination: Firms A and B may both be qualified to do some business with the government, but one firm may be a multinational with many plants, while the other firm may be a sole proprietorship with only a single plant. The ‘qualified-firm counting’ approach ignores differences in capacity and deems the single-plant firm to be equally ‘available’ to serve the government as the multiplant firm. It might assume, for example, that the manufacturers of a small micro-brewery brand and Budweiser are equally available to sell beer. J.A. at A778 (USCCR Disparity Studies at 67) (emphasis in original). The Eleventh Circuit has explained similarly that “[b]ecause they are bigger, bigger firms have a bigger chance to win bigger contracts. It follows that, all other factors being equal and in a perfectly nondiscriminatory market, one would expect the bigger (on average) non-MWBE firms to get a disproportionately higher percentage of total construction dollars awarded than the smaller MWBE firms.” Eng’g Contractors Ass’n, 122 F.3d at 917. And we ourselves criticized a statistic, offered by DOD in an earlier stage of this case, in part because it “[did] not take into account the fact that the sheer number of businesses owned by minorities may not be significantly correlated with the volume of business conducted by minority-owned businesses.” Rothe III, 262 F.3d at 1324; see also W. States Paving Co., 407 F.3d at 1000 (“[T]he fact that [disadvantaged business enterprises] constitute 11.17% of the Washington market does not establish that they are able to perform 11.17% of the work.”). 2008-1017 33 Here, each of the six disparity studies accounted for the relative sizes of contracts awarded to minority-owned businesses, by measuring the utilization of minority-owned contractors—i.e., the numerator in a disparity ratio—in terms of contract-dollars directed to minority-owned businesses rather than in the raw number of contracts awarded. But none of the studies took complementary account of the relative sizes of the businesses themselves. Rather, each of the studies measured the availability of minority-owned businesses—i.e., the denominator in a disparity ratio—by the percentage of firms in the market owned by minorities, instead of by the percentage of total marketplace capacity those firms could provide. 12 See J.A. at A1603 (Dallas study: introducing concept of disparity ratio as comparison between “the proportion of contract dollars awarded to [MBEs and WBEs]” and “the proportion of available MBEs and WBEs in the relevant market area” (emphases added)); J.A. at A1962 (Cuyahoga County study: same); J.A. at A2702 (Alameda County study: same); J.A. at A3031 (New York City study: “Under a fair and equitable system of awarding contracts, the proportion of contract dollars awarded to M/WBEs would be approximate to the proportion of available M/WBEs in the relevant market area.” (emphases added)); J.A. at A1768 (Cincinnati study: defining “disparity index” as “the percentage of M/WFBE participation in government contracts,” i.e., “the percentage of contracting dollars paid to 12 Constance F. Citro, one of the experts appearing before the USCCR panel on disparity studies in December of 2005, wrote that comparing utilization measured in terms of contract-dollars against availability measured in terms of number of firms is akin to comparing apples to oranges. See J.A. at A767 (USCCR Disparity Studies, supra note 7, at 56). While we do not adopt that statement as a general prohibition, we certainly agree with Dr. Citro that for a disparity ratio to have significant probative value, “the same time period and metric (dollars or numbers) should be used in measuring the utilization and availability shares.” J.A. at A772 (USCCR Disparity Studies, supra note 7, at 61). 2008-1017 34 M/WFBE” firms, divided by “the percentage of M/WFBEs in the relevant population of local firms” (emphases added)); J.A. at A2211 (Virginia study: describing “underlying assumption” of study’s disparity analysis that “absent discrimination, the proportion of dollars received by a particular MBE group should approximate that group’s proportion of the relevant population of vendors” (emphases added)). We do not mean to suggest that the studies completely ignored the question of firm size. In the New York City study, for example, the disparity analysis was “restricted to an examination of the prime contract awards of $1,000,000 and under to limit the capacity required to perform the contracts subjected to the statistical analysis.” J.A. at A3005. Similarly, the Dallas study attempted to control for capacity by ensuring that firms had a “demonstrated ability to win large competitively bid contracts,” J.A. at A1582; the study concluded that “the majority of the City’s contracts are small,” and “[t]herefore, to perform on most City contracts, even the competitively bid construction projects, the available firms only required minimal capacity.” J.A. at A1602; see also J.A. at A1928 (Cuyahoga County study: similar approach). But while these parameters may have ensured that each minority-owned business in the studies met a capacity threshold—i.e., had the capacity to bid for and to complete any one contract—these parameters simply fail to account for the relative capacities of businesses to bid for more than one contract at a time, or, borrowing from Professor Ayres’s example, the difference between the volume of a particular microbrewed beer in the marketplace at a given time and the volume of Budweiser. This 2008-1017 35 failure renders the disparity ratios calculated by the studies substantially less probative, on their own, of the likelihood of discrimination. 13 Of course, the studies could have accounted for firm size even without changing their disparity-ratio methodologies; they could have employed regression analysis to determine whether there was a statistically significant correlation between the size of a firm and the share of contract-dollars awarded to it. See Eng’g Contractors Ass’n, 122 F.3d at 917 (explaining that “regression analysis is a statistical procedure for determining the relationship between a dependent and independent variable, e.g., the dollar value of a contract award and firm size,” and that “[t]he point of a regression analysis is to determine whether the relationship between the two variables is statistically meaningful”). But of the six studies, only the Virginia study conducted this type of regression analysis: The regression analysis which included the independent variables of a firm—age of company, owner education level, number of employees, percent of revenue from private sector, and owner experience for industry groupings—had an R square of .18, indicating that the independent variables explained only 18 percent of the variations in firm revenue categories. J.A. at A2234. And although the Virginia study did find “a consistent and negative relationship between MBE status and revenue” even after accounting for such “independent” variables, J.A. at A2235, the relatively lax “qualified, willing, and able” requirements of the Virginia study render this conclusion less probative. 13 According to Professor Ayres, the Department of Commerce Benchmark Study employed a true “capacity” methodology, which “calculates in dollar terms the capacity of qualified firms to do business with the government” and uses as a benchmark for each industry the minority-owned businesses’ “share of the industry’s total capacity.” J.A. at A778 (USCCR Disparity Studies, supra note 7, at 67). 2008-1017 36 To be clear, we do not hold that the defects in the availability and capacity analyses in these six disparity studies render the studies wholly unreliable for any purpose. Where the calculated disparity ratios are low enough, we do not foreclose the possibility that an inference of discrimination might still be permissible for some of the minority groups in some of the studied industries in some of the jurisdictions. And we recognize that a minority-owned firm’s capacity and qualifications may themselves be affected by discrimination. 14 But we hold that the defects we have noted detract dramatically from the probative value of these six studies, and, in conjunction with their limited geographic coverage, render the studies insufficient to form the statistical core of the “strong basis in evidence” required to uphold the statute.
In Rothe III, we explained that, although Section 1207 is subject to scrutiny that is no less strict than the scrutiny applied to the race-based policies of municipalities, Congress nevertheless has, in a sense, a “‘broader brush’ than municipalities for remedying discrimination,” because Congress has the power to legislate for the entire nation. 262 F.3d at 1329. In particular, we wrote that “[w]hereas municipalities must necessarily identify discrimination in the immediate locality to justify a race-based program, we do not think that Congress needs to have had evidence before it of discrimination in all fifty states in order to justify the 1207 program.” Id.; see also Adarand Constructors, Inc. v. Slater, 228 F.3d 1147, 1165 (10th Cir. 2000) (“Adarand 14 But see Concrete Works of Colo., Inc. v. City & County of Denver, 540 U.S. 1027, 1032 (2003) (Scalia, J., dissenting from denial of cert.) (“The Tenth Circuit accepted the city’s contention that . . . MBEs . . . ‘are generally smaller and less experienced because of industry discrimination.’ The argument fails because it rests on nothing but speculation.” (internal citation omitted)). 2008-1017 37 VII”) (“The fact that Congress’s enactments must serve a compelling interest does not necessitate the conclusion that the scope of that interest must be as geographically limited as that of a local government.”). However, we were clear that “evidence of a few isolated instances of discrimination would be insufficient to uphold the nationwide program,” and we left to the district court the question of “[w]here to draw the line . . . in the first instance.” Rothe III, 262 F.3d at 1330. The district court has now drawn a line, holding that “[t]hese six state and local disparity studies analyze evidence of discrimination from a diverse cross-section of jurisdictions across the United States, and they constitute prima facie evidence of a nation-wide pattern or practice of discrimination in public and private contracting.” Rothe VI, 499 F. Supp. 2d at 838-39 (footnote omitted). It is now up to us to review this holding, and we cannot affirm it. We take judicial notice that the United States comprises over three thousand counties and county-equivalent regions, 15 and, as of July 1, 2007, there are at least two hundred cities or metropolitan areas with populations above 200,000 people. 16 It may be reasonable to assume that there are some demographic and industrial similarities between many of the larger cities and counties across the country. And we still think that Congress need not amass evidence of discrimination in all fifty states to meet its burden. But we would be hesitant to conclude even from methodologically unimpeachable disparity studies of one state, two counties, 15 See, e.g., United States Geological Survey, Frequently Asked Questions, “How many counties are there in the United States?” available at http://www.usgs.gov/faq/list_faq_by_category/get_answer.asp?id=785 (last visited September 28, 2008). 16 See United States Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Population for Incorporated Places Over 100,000, Ranked by July 1, 2007 Population: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007, available at http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/tables/SUB-EST200701.csv (last visited September 28, 2008). 2008-1017 38 and three cities that there is a “nation-wide pattern or practice of discrimination in public and private contracting,” where the discrimination is on the same order as the local discrimination that might be inferred from the six studies. Here, given the weaknesses in the six studies’ benchmark analyses as described above, we simply cannot agree with the district court’s conclusion. We stress that in holding these six studies insufficient in this case, we do not necessarily disapprove of decisions by other circuit courts that have relied, directly or indirectly, on municipal disparity studies to establish a federal compelling interest. Different studies, in the context of different legislative history, may support different conclusions. In particular, the Appendix, relied on by the Ninth and Tenth Circuits in the context of certain race-conscious measures pertaining to federal highway construction, references the Urban Institute Report, which itself analyzed over fifty disparity studies and relied for its conclusions on over thirty of those studies, a far broader basis than the six studies here provide. See Adarand VII, 228 F.3d at 1172-73; W. States Paving Co., 407 F.3d at 992-93; Urban Institute Report, supra note 5, at 9. 17