Opinion ID: 374662
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: The Statistical Case.

Text: 45 Western Electric's Jacksonville Installation Division has never employed a black supervisor, 18 nor has any black person ever advanced to Index 5. Western Electric employed no black installers between 1940 and 1960. The first plaintiffs to become installers were R. B. Wright and F. J. Smith, hired in 1964. The hire dates and dates of promotion for each plaintiff are set out in the margin. 19 46 The pretrial stipulation contained the names and hire dates of all installers who were working for Western Electric as of January 1, 1976. The race of each installer was given, as were the number of months each required to achieve Index 2, Index 3, and so forth. In Western Electric's analysis of the stipulated figures, the advancement times of all white installers, regardless of date of hire, were averaged and compared with blacks. This analysis revealed the following: 47 Average Time (in Months) to Advance to: ----------------------------------------------- Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 -------- -------- -------- ------- Blacks 17.8 55.8 79.0 Whites 17.2 60.8 98.8 153.6 48 In the pretrial stipulation, plaintiffs reserved the right to challenge the accuracy of the foregoing statistical analysis, 20 and did so at trial. Plaintiffs pointed out that some whites whose advancement times were figured into the averages were hired in the 1950's and early 1960's when the Index Plan, the residency requirements for advancement, and operative economic factors were different from those existing during the years when Western Electric hired blacks. Plaintiffs thus called to the court's attention the need for caution in approaching the statistics, and plaintiffs' objections were sufficient to preclude a holding that they stipulated to Western Electric's analysis, even though they failed to present any alternative analysis to assist the court. 49 To isolate by means of statistics the causes for a phenomenon, it is necessary to hold constant as many relevant variables as possible. Advancement times of installers hired in the middle 1950's cannot validly be compared with the times of those hired in the late 1960's, since many variables other than race, such as economic conditions, the promotion plans then in effect, the residency requirements, demographics, needs of the company, and strength of employee organizations, could explain a different rate of advancement for the two groups. Therefore, since date of hire was not held constant in Western Electric's analysis, that analysis is not statistically valid. We also note that some of the more intelligent and ambitious installers hired in the 1950's and 1960's had, in all likelihood, become supervisors by January 1976. We assume their advancement rates, although not reflected in the stipulated figures, would have been faster than their white contemporaries who remained installers. 21 50 A more valid comparison between blacks and whites can be drawn from the stipulated figures. Advancement rates of whites hired in 1964 or later can be ascertained and laid alongside the rates of blacks. Our own rough calculations 22 using such figures show the following: 51 These figures reveal a much different picture than that reflected in Western Electric's statistical analysis. For example, whites hired contemporaneously with blacks seem on the average to have achieved Index 3 a full year sooner than their black coworkers, not five months later, as suggested by Western Electric's analysis. Moreover, whites in that group reached Index 5, on average, in 76.3 months after hire, rather than in the 153.6 months that Western Electric's averages indicate. 52