Opinion ID: 3053972
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: Sufficiency of MMS’s Environmental Analysis

Text: MMS has not provided a convincing statement of reasons explaining why Shell’s exploratory drilling plans at these specific sites would have an insignificant impact on bowhead whales and Inupiat subsistence activities. As a result, we are unpersuaded that MMS took the requisite “hard look” at the environmental impact of this project. There remain substantial questions as to whether Shell’s plan may cause significant harm to the people and wildlife of the Beaufort Sea region. Respondents’ primary response is that, through the tiering process, the agency sufficiently analyzed all possible environALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15571 mental impacts of this project. The EA is “tiered” to the multi-sale EIS and the EAs for Lease Sales 195 and 202 pursuant to 40 C.F.R. § 1502.20. According to Respondents, any analysis that is allegedly missing from the EA is adequately covered in those previous documents. Respondents point out that OCSLA only allows thirty days to approve an EP, see 43 U.S.C. § 1340(c)(1), and argue that this short statutory deadline encourages a streamlined review process. The agency may not, however, hide behind the cloak of its generalized multi-sale EIS. NEPA applies to all stages of the OCSLA cycle. Vill. of False Pass v. Clark, 733 F.2d 605, 614 (9th Cir. 1984). When the agency is tasked with assessing the environmental impacts of a particular exploration plan, it has a duty to take a hard look at the consequences of drilling in specific sites. As the agency itself noted in the multi-sale EIS, “[a]ny proposed exploration or development plans that may result for [the area] evaluated in this EIS, would require additional NEPA environmental analysis using site specific information.” MMS’s environmental analysis is inadequate because it fails to consider the impacts this specific project will have on bowhead whales and Inupiat subsistence activities.
MMS’s EA fails to take a hard look at whether Shell’s exploratory drilling program would have a “significant” effect on bowhead whales, an endangered species. See 40 C.F.R. § 1508.27(b)(9) (agency should consider “degree to which the action may adversely affect an endangered or threatened species”). The EA lacks sufficient analysis on the consequences of underwater noise and its impact on bowheads’ migratory routes. Although the presence of some negative effects does not mandate a finding of significant impact, the agency must “consider the degree of adverse effect on a species.” Env’t Protection Info. Center (EPIC) v. U.S. Forest Serv., 451 F.3d 1005, 1010-11 (9th Cir. 2006); see also Native Ecosystems Council, 428 F.3d at 1240-41 (any mention of an adverse 15572 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE impact does not necessarily compel an EIS, but an agency should not use a “soft touch or brush-off of negative effects”). [7] The major shortcoming of the agency’s environmental analysis is that it does not assess the impacts that would be felt by the bowhead whale population from a project in the migratory route that involves two drillships and two icebreakers. The multi-sale EIS envisions “[a] maximum of two drilling rigs” would be used during this time, and the EA “assumed that two drilling rigs with icebreaker support might operate during any year.” However, aside from nominally mentioning the possible extent of this project, the studies relied upon by the agency do not actually assess the potential significance of underwater noise from a drilling operation of this scope. [8] The multi-sale EIS discusses, in a general sense, the impact of noise on bowhead whales, citing a number of studies that have been conducted on the topic. However, that document contains no studies that analyze the effects of noise from a project with two drillships and two icebreakers. The studies assessing the effect of noise in other situations suggest that bowheads respond to drilling noise by altering their migration speed and swimming direction to avoid closely approaching the noise sources. In discussing icebreaker noise, the multi-sale EIS states, “[e]ffects of an actual icebreaker on migrating bowheads, especially mothers and calves, could be biologically significant.” Moreover, studies cited in the multisale EIS use varying methodologies and come to inconclusive results. Many of these reports use noise simulations, but there is limited data on how bowheads would respond in an uncontrolled setting. The reports state: “There are no observations of bowhead reactions to icebreakers breaking ice,” and “playback results may somewhat understate the differences between truly undisturbed whales versus those exposed to playbacks.” The generalized information contained in the multi-sale EIS does not adequately demonstrate that the agency has taken a hard look at the effects of Shell’s project ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15573 on bowhead whales. After making the observation that noise could cause significant biological effects, there is not additional information that supports why any specific project would not cause real harm to whale populations. In particular, it is not evident from the multi-sale EIS that a project using the type of equipment proposed by Shell would not have a significant impact on bowhead whales. The EA does not cure this infirmity. The EA gives only a brief description of the level of noise the individual drillships in Shell’s proposal could make, but does not examine the combined effect of all vessels operating simultaneously. The agency’s analysis relies in large part on a biological opinion (“BiOp”) prepared by the National Marine Fisheries Service (“NMFS”) in 2006. MMS asserts that the BiOp “covers the proposed Shell operations” because it assumed a situation where two drilling rigs with icebreaker support would operate in an area covering up to twelve wells. But there is no indication that the BiOp in fact relies on studies involving two drillships and two icebreakers. The BiOp acknowledges that the “potential total adverse effects of long-term added noise, disturbance, and related avoidance of feeding and resting habitat . . . are unknown.” In addition, “[t]here has been no documented evidence that noise from previous OCS operations has served as a barrier to migration,” but “[c]oncentrations of loud noise and disturbance activities during the open water period have the potential to cause large numbers of bowheads to avoid using areas for resting and feeding for long periods of time . . . while the noise producing activities continue.” This analysis indicates that there are serious concerns and uncertainties about the manner in which the endangered bowhead population would respond to Shell’s three year exploratory drilling plan. Despite these concerns, the BiOp goes on to allege that “bowhead whales exposed to noise-producing activities . . . most likely would experience temporary, nonlethal effects.” It comes to the conclusion that “such exploratory drilling would not jeopardize the population.” This determina15574 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE tion is not supported by the BiOp’s contrary assertions that noise could cause serious adverse effects. MMS realizes the distinguishing characteristics between Shell’s specific proposal and the scope of prior studies, but does not then engage in any additional analysis. The agency admits in the EA that, “in the past, operations with one drill ship and associated icebreakers have displaced the migration slightly, and no whales were sighted between the operations and shore, but it is unknown what the increased level of effect of two proposed drillships and associated icebreakers and other attendant vessels would be.” In MMS’s own review of a 1993 monitoring study, the agency notes that the report “detected behavioral changes in bowheads around drillship operations near Camden Bay.” MMS goes on to state: With regards to the MMS significance criteria, there is no evidence that the offshore displacement . . . persisted for more than a generation (about 17 years). So, the level of effect of a drillship in Camden Bay is probably not significant by MMS NEPA standards. However, the same type of displacement to the east of Kaktovik where whales frequently feed would affect growth and could have a more serious biological effect. Also, even though there isn’t a significant biological effect from in Camden Bay operations, there could be a significant sociocultural effect if the bowheads do not migrate back into the shore- ward portion of the migration corridor as they approach Cross Island. Notably, the EA also states that the “effect on bowheads is likely to be greater than for [the 1993 activities] because of Shell’s proposal to use two drillships, two large icebreakers, and several associated vessels.” Although the agency mentions the possibility for increased impacts on bowhead whales and the human populations who depend on them, it fails to ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15575 take a hard look at whether a proposal of this magnitude will have significant impacts on this endangered species. The agency’s attempt to rely upon a monitoring program as a mitigation measure is similarly ill-founded. This section of the EA ends with a discussion of “Stipulation No. 4” which requires that Shell conduct a site-specific whale monitoring program during its drilling operations. Instead of insisting on alternative mitigation measures or conducting a full EIS at this time, MMS states it “has the authority to modify approved operations to ensure that significant biological populations or habitats deserving protection are not subject to a threat of serious, irreparable, or immediate harm.” [9] Federal regulations define “mitigation” as a way to avoid, minimize, rectify, or compensate for the impact of a potentially harmful action. 40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.20(a)-(e). An agency can rely upon mitigation measures in determining whether an environmental impact is significant. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 734. In order to be effective, a mitigation measure must be supported by analytical data demonstrating why it will “constitute an adequate buffer against the negative impacts that may result from the authorized activity.” Id. A mitigation measure must render potential impacts “so minor as to not warrant an EIS.” Id. The proposed monitoring program fails this test, as it could detect impacts only after they have occurred. MMS’s statement that it would reserve the authority to modify approved operations does not provide enough protection under this standard. A court must be able to review, in advance, how specific measures will bring projects into compliance with environmental standards. See id. at 733 (“The Parks Service proposes to increase the risk of harm to the environment and then perform its studies. . . . This approach has the process exactly backwards.”). Monitoring may serve to confirm the appropriateness of a mitigation measure, but that does not make it an adequate mitigation measure in itself. See EPIC, 451 F.3d at 1015-16. 15576 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE [10] After considering the gaps in the multi-sale EIS and the EA, we conclude that the agency failed to take a “hard look” under NEPA because it did not provide a well-reasoned analysis of site-specific impacts to the endangered bowhead whale population. The tiered OCSLA process allows general analysis at the lease-sale stage, but the agency must then consider site-specific impacts before approving an individual exploration plan. See Pit River Tribe v. U.S. Forest Serv., 469 F.3d 768, 784 (9th Cir. 2006) (holding that agency could not rely on “vague prior programmatic statements,” but needed to consider “site-specific impacts” when a “critical decision has been made to act” on a lease sale); Vill. of False Pass v. Watt, 565 F. Supp. 1123, 1135 (D. Alaska 1983) (“[A] purpose of OCSLA is to permit an expedient resolution of preliminary matters in the development of oil lands while preserving administrative and judicial review for future times when potential threats to the environment are readily visualized and evaluated.”). As the agency itself notes in the multi-sale EIS, the tiered approach “builds on the premise that as both the agencies and companies involved move from general planning, to leasing, to exploration . . . the specificity of the information improves. The accompanying environmental analysis that flows from each stage also is more specific with respect to location, timing, and magnitude.” The EA contains the names of Shell’s drilling vessels (the Kulluk and the Frontier Discoverer) and icebreakers (the Kapitan Dranitzyn and the Vladimire Ignatyuk), and mentions the other vessels Shell intends to use. However, merely noting the details of Shell’s EP does not demonstrate that the effects of this plan were actually analyzed. The results of the studies in the multi-sale EIS and EA were inconclusive. The agency may not rely on past studies on the general impact of noise on bowhead whales to justify its failure to conduct a particularized assessment here. This is especially true when past studies acknowledged that noise levels may, in certain circumstances, cause significant disturbances to whales. Additionally, MMS’s analysis should take ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15577 a closer look at the locations of Shell’s individual wells in relationship to the migratory patterns of the bowhead whales. [11] In sum, MMS abrogated its NEPA duties because neither the EA nor the documents it tiers to considers the specific parameters and potential dangers of Shell’s project. There is substantial uncertainty about how various levels of noise would affect whales and their migratory patterns. See 40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.27(b)(5), (9) (in its review, agency should consider degree to which possible effects to the environment are highly uncertain, as well as how action may adversely affect an endangered species). Furthermore, the proposed mitigation measure does not save the plan because it is not clear that a monitoring program will ameliorate potentially serious negative impacts. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 734.

[12] MMS also failed to take a “hard look” at the effects Shell’s project would have on the Inupiat’s subsistence uses of bowhead whales. The agency’s review should consider how the proposal affects public health or safety, and the degree to which its impact on the human environment is unknown or highly controversial. 40 C.F.R. §§ 1508.27(b)(2), (4), (5). MMS defines a “significant” effect on a sociocultural system as: “A chronic disruption of sociocultural systems that occurs for a period of 2-5 years, with a tendency toward the displacement of existing social patterns.” [13] As discussed above, MMS did not adequately evaluate the consequences of drilling in these specific locations on bowhead whale populations. That same analysis applies to the effect the drilling plan will have on the bowhead whale harvest and the important role this tradition plays in Inupiat culture. MMS’s failure to consider the parameters of Shell’s plan 15578 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE results in an inadequate analysis of the impacts of this proposal on communities that rely on bowhead whales for subsistence. The EA itself notes that even if underwater noise does not cause a significant biological effect for the whales themselves, “there could be a significant sociocultural effect if the bowheads do not migrate back” into the “migration corridor.” MMS acknowledges this possibility, but then comes to the inexplicable conclusion that this project can proceed without other modifications. The agency further states that “ideally, drilling and high resolution seismic activity would not deflect whales until . . . whalers had harvested whales,” but does not give any rationale explaining why it expects this ideal scenario will occur. The EA itself admits that “it is unknown what the increased level of effect of two proposed drillships and associated icebreakers and other attendant vessels would be.” [14] Without examining the possible level of disruption to the Inupiat harvest of bowhead whales, MMS offers only “conclusory assertions” that impacts will not be significant. See Ocean Advocates, 402 F.3d at 864-66 (holding that Army Corps of Engineers failed to take “hard look” where its assessment included only conclusory assertions and did not discuss contrary evidence). Accordingly, Petitioners correctly posit that the agency must conduct greater analysis of how Shell’s activities in these particular locations, using two drillships and two icebreakers, will affect the Inupiat’s reliance on the bowhead harvest. MMS asserts that any threat to the Inupiat’s subsistence whaling would be minimized through a conflict avoidance agreement. Again, the deficiencies in the agency’s analysis are not cured through its proposed mitigation measure. In order to rely on mitigation to obviate further analysis, the measure must be identified and its effectiveness analyzed. Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 733-36 (holding EIS must be prepared where monitoring and mitigation measures were uncertain). Additionally, “[m]itigation must be ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15579 discussed in sufficient detail to ensure that environmental consequences have been fairly evaluated.” Neighbors of Cuddy Mountain v. U.S. Forest Serv., 137 F.3d 1372, 1380 (9th Cir. 1998) (internal quotation marks and citation omitted). The agency must provide analytic data on the efficacy of a proposed measure, and the court must decide whether it “will render such impacts so minor as to not warrant an EIS.” Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 734. [15] The conflict avoidance agreement process is too vague and uncertain as a mitigation measure to justify the agency’s decision not to engage in further analysis. Conflict avoidance agreements come about through a voluntary process and are renegotiated every year. The agency is not party to the process, and any agreement made is not legally binding. The EA itself notes that without an agreement, there are serious questions about whether the project would have significant impacts on Inupiat communities. The agency states: “Without such conflict avoidance measures in place, significant impacts to the subsistence resources and hunts for bowhead whales, seals, and polar bears could occur.” It goes on to say: “Only a carefully constructed and monitored [conflict avoidance agreement] could produce some remedy to disturbances to bowhead whales and the subsistence hunt.” The language used by MMS reveals the real risks this project poses to the bowhead population and Inupiat communities. An annual voluntary re-negotiation process does not sufficiently mitigate the concerns raised by Petitioners and acknowledged by the agency. [16] Simply because conflict avoidance agreements have been used effectively in the past does not mean that an agency can rely on them to cure inadequacies in the environmental assessment.4 MMS abdicates its responsibility for analyzing 4 Before drilling operations were stayed by this court in August 2007, Shell and the local whaling captains negotiated a year-long agreement that would have deferred drilling operations until after completion of the Nuiqsut whale hunt. 15580 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE the effects on subsistence whaling by leaving it up to the parties to come up with their own agreement, outside of the NEPA review process. MMS does provide that, if the parties fail to reach an agreement, MMS may re-examine the situation and make a “final determination on the adequacy of the measures taken to prevent unreasonable conflicts with subsistence harvests.” However, this provision is not sufficient to meet the agency’s obligations. There is still no analytical data that shows how the process would reduce the impact to whaling below the level of significance. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 734 (citing Idaho Sporting Congress, 137 F.3d at 1151). By relying on the uncertain outcome of the conflict avoidance agreement process, the agency deprives this court of its ability to review whether the measure is sufficiently protective. In sum, the agency is not relieved of its responsibility to conduct more specific analysis on how this project will affect the Inupiat harvest of bowhead whales.
Shell’s activities will also affect other Inupiat subsistence resources, such as beluga whales, caribou, and fish. Petitioners urge the agency to take a closer look at the impacts of exploration because of the proximity of the proposed activities to the Inupiat hunting and fishing grounds. The EA’s comments focus almost entirely on the subsistence use of bowhead whales. It notes only in one sentence that “helicopter and aircraft supply flights have the potential to disturb caribou movements and alter the subsistence hunt.” The multi-sale EIS takes a cursory glance at these other animal populations, stating that drilling activities “could affect the availability of” beluga whales to subsistence hunters. The study further acknowledges that flight activity may disturb caribou populations.5 5 In a separate agreement, Shell has agreed to keep helicopter traffic above 1,500 feet to minimize any interference with the caribou hunt. ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15581 The biggest gap in the agency’s multi-sale EIS and EA is the lack of both information and analysis examining the impacts this project will have on fish populations. In analyzing fish populations, the EA acknowledges: “Given scientific uncertainty surrounding how several important fish species would react to varying levels of drilling program noise, we believe it possible there will be more than a minimal level of effect on some species.” MMS acknowledges that it “cannot concur” with Shell’s assurances that its activities “may have minimal to no impact on fish.” The agency goes on to state: The MMS also cannot concur that the effects on all fish species would be ‘short term’ or that these potential effects are insignificant, nor would they be limited to the ‘. . . localized displacement of fish . . .’, because they could persist for up to five months each year for three consecutive years and they could occur during critical times in the life cycle of important fish species. The MMS remains concerned that the potential adverse effects described for several fish species will occur to an unknown degree, however none are expected to exceed the level that would require three generations to recover (the threshold for a significant effect). After this lengthy discussion on concerns and gaps in the data, the EA’s abrupt conclusion that any potential effects will be insignificant is unsubstantiated. This is the type of “conclusory assertion” that is disfavored by this court because the agency has not provided any scientific data that justifies this position. See Ocean Advocates, 402 F.3d at 864. The EA notes that it does not have the data to examine the full effect of underwater noise on fish movement. When information necessary to determine the effects is readily available or easily gathered, the law requires that an agency gather such 15582 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE information. See Nat’l Parks & Conservation Ass’n, 241 F.3d at 733 (stating agency’s “lack of knowledge does not excuse the preparation of an EIS; rather it requires the [agency] to do the necessary work to obtain it.”). Here, MMS has not shown that this information is unattainable. If data on the impacts of fish is not readily available, then the agency must give a more complete explanation of how, in light of those gaps, it still believes this project would not cause a significant impact on fish and the communities that consume them. The EA ultimately concludes that Inupiat communities may suffer cultural consequences from drilling activities, but does not state whether these effects will be “significant.” Instead, the EA relies on mitigation measures in the hopes that they would ameliorate any harm done: “Required mitigation, monitoring, and conflict avoidance measures . . . would serve collectively to mitigate disturbance effects on Native lifestyles and subsistence practices and likely would mitigate any consequent impacts on sociocultural systems.” As discussed above, these mitigation measures do not go far enough to rectify the potential that Shell’s project will cause substantial harm to Inupiat communities on Alaska’s northern shore. [17] In sum, MMS failed to take a “hard look” at the impacts this plan will have on Inupiat subsistence activities. The agency notes the gaps in its data and the potential for serious consequences, but then comes to the unsubstantiated conclusion that any impacts will be insignificant. The agency’s broad assertions are not supported by the record. See EPIC, 451 F.3d at 1009 (agency must consider all relevant factors and provide a convincing statement of reasons to justify its decision). Accordingly, MMS should create either a revised environmental analysis or, as necessary, an environmental impact statement, taking a closer look at how Shell’s drilling in these specific sites will affect Inupiat subsistence activities. ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15583
[18] Despite any other insufficiencies, MMS’s environmental analysis does adequately examine the impacts of a potential crude oil spill. The EA states, “[f]or purposes of this EA analysis, no crude oil spills are assumed from exploration activities. This assumption is based on the low rate of exploratory drilling blowouts per well drilled and the history of exploration spills on the Arctic OCS . . . .” Petitioners contend that this assumption is erroneous, and the agency must consider the likelihood of a spill in relationship to the harm such an event would cause. This argument is unavailing. The agency’s assessment makes the proper inquiry into the risk of an oil spill, and no further analysis is required in relationship to this exploration plan. In the process of NEPA review, an agency should consider the “degree to which the possible effects on the human environment are highly uncertain or involve unique or unknown risks.” 40 C.F.R. § 1508.27(b)(5). NEPA does not require consideration of risks that are “merely speculative” or “infinitesimal.” No GWEN Alliance v. Aldridge, 855 F.2d 1380, 1386 (9th Cir. 1988); Ground Zero Ctr. for Non-Violent Action v. U.S. Dep’t of the Navy, 383 F.3d 1082, 1090 (9th Cir. 2004). An agency should assess the likelihood of a particular risk along with the consequences of such an accident. See City of New York v. U.S. Dep’t of Transp., 715 F.2d 732, 746 (9th Cir. 1983) (“It is only the risk of accident that might render the proposed action environmentally significant. That circumstance obliges the agency to undertake risk assessment: an estimate of both the consequences that might occur and the probability of their occurrence.”). Despite its initial assumption that an oil spill will not occur, the EA includes discussion of the effects of a potential spill on the Inupiat subsistence harvest and a variety of animal species. The EA also incorporates the multi-sale EIS’s extensive discussion of a potential spill. The multi-sale EIS recognizes 15584 ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE that “[a] very large oil spill is an issue of concern to everyone. . . . A very large oil spill is a low-probability event with the potential for very high effects.” The EIS analyzes data from spills around the world, since very large spills in U.S. waters have been extremely rare. The document further considers the potential effects of “small” and “large” oil spills in the Beaufort Sea region. Appended to the multi-sale EIS is a lengthy document entitled “The Information, Models and Assumptions We Use to Analyze the Effects of Oil Spills in this EIS.” This report includes information on the history and behavior of spilled oil. In evaluating the risks of an oil spill, the agency has, over time, conducted extensive studies on the likelihood of oil spills in the Beaufort Sea. These include the 2002 and 2006 Bercha Reports on the “Alternative Oil Spill Occurrence Estimators and their Variability for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.” The analysis of oil spill risks was updated in the EAs for both Lease Sale 195 and Lease Sale 202. There is no indication that the agency erred in relying on these documents in its review of this specific project. Petitioners argue that extensive discussion of spills in MMS’s prior analyses and the requirement that an oil response plan be prepared is evidence that an oil spill is a reasonably foreseeable event. Under their logic, the EA should therefore have included analysis on the possibility of such a spill. Petitioners support this contention by citing to cases where an agency was required to consider even remote risks that could cause great harm. See, e.g., San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace v. Nuclear Regulatory Comm’n, 449 F.3d 1016, 1030-31 (9th Cir. 2006) (holding that agency was unreasonable in categorically dismissing the possibility of a terrorist attack as “too remote and highly speculative” to warrant NEPA consideration). Petitioners also point out that, even if an oil spill is unlikely, the consequences could be great. Petitioners contend that the EA’s blanket “assumption” failed to adequately consider the relationship between the risk and the consequences of an oil spill. ALASKA WILDERNESS v. KEMPTHORNE 15585 Petitioners’ position on this issue is flawed. The EA properly tiers to the lengthy discussion of the risk and impacts of oil spills in the multi-sale EIS. This case may be distinguished from San Luis Obispo Mothers for Peace because here, the agency does not claim it has no obligation to consider this risk, but only that it has sufficiently done so in previous studies. There is no evidence that anything about this particular project requires separate analysis on oil spills. No special risk creates the need for additional evaluation of factors that were not already considered in MMS’s prior studies. Although the language in the EA may not have been ideal, MMS’s “assumption” that there would not be an oil spill was supplemented with comprehensive studies on the likelihood and impact of such an event. Accordingly, the agency did not act arbitrarily and capriciously in its assessment of the potential effects of an oil spill from this project.