Opinion ID: 622359
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 4

Heading: The Draft Revised Environmental Assessment (DREA)

Text: On remand, the DOE prepared a DREA in March 2007, addressing the impacts associated with terrorist attacks to determine whether the threat of terrorist attack necessitated preparation of an EIS. The DREA was circulated for public comment from April 11, 2007 through May 11, 2007. To analyze the threat that terrorist activity posed to the LLNL BSL-3 laboratory, the DOE was required to take a different approach than it did when analyzing the threat posed by accidents. Because there are an infinite number of possible modes of attack, the DOE considered three general types of terrorist threats: (1) a direct terrorist attack at the LLNL BSL-3 facility, resulting in loss of containment; (2) the theft and release of pathogenic material by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist outsider; and (3) the theft and release of pathogenic material by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider.
The DOE considered various possible modes of direct terrorist attack on the LLNL facility, including a suicidal plane crash or an explosive device delivered by vehicle or on foot. In considering the impact of this type of threat, the DOE used the centrifuge scenario to determine the bounded or outer limits of any release, and then analyzed factors which could mitigate such a release. The DOE concluded that the outer bounds of dispersion in a terrorist attack would be the same as those of the catastrophic release scenario used in the original EA. The centrifuge model analysis supported a finding of no significance for terrorist threat based upon a direct attack on the LLNL BSL-3 facility. To further validate its findings using the centrifuge model, [2] the DOE also considered several factors that would further limit the consequences of a direct terrorist attack. Specifically, (1) very limited quantities of biological agents are generally in use at LLNL BSL-3, (2) a fire resulting from an airplane crash or explosive device would likely kill many pathogens quickly; and (3) in the unlikely event of bioagent release, microorganisms would generally be rendered innocuous by exposure to generally occurring environmental conditions. The DOE concluded that these factors in the aggregate would substantially reduce the number of pathogens released and capable of human infection, as the result of a direct attack. It also concluded that the impact of a facility breach caused by a direct terrorist act would be no greater than the impacts addressed in the Army's catastrophic release scenario analyzed in the initial EA.
The DREA next considered the threat of the theft and release of a pathogen by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist outsider. It examined this possible form of attack by evaluating the types of pathogens available at the LLNL BSL-3 facility in comparison to the types of pathogens available from other sources, including other BSL-3 facilities and the natural environment. Comparatively speaking, the DOE reasoned that hundreds of other BSL-3 facilities in the United States regularly handle and store the same types of substances as the LLNL BSL-3 facility. Moreover, many substances are available from common environmental sources. Thus, a terrorist outsider seeking such materials could find them in many BSL-3 facilities nationwide, most of which lack the safeguards and security infrastructure of LLNL. Unlike the majority of the 1,350 BSL-3 labs nationwide, most of which are academic or clinical facilities, LLNL BSL-3 is surrounded by a patrolled security fence with badge-identification required for entry; it has its own security force, including an armed emergency response force. Access to the BSL-3 facility is limited to employees registered with the CDC and trained and qualified under its guidelines. Access to individual lab rooms within the building is limited to staff members approved to work during specific shifts, and all lab rooms are equipped with motion sensors. Finally, within the lab, select agents are stored in locked freezers when not in use. Accordingly, the DOE reasoned that when considered against the thousands of other sources from which a terrorist outsider could obtain the same pathogenic materials, the addition of a single, highly-guarded BSL-3 facility at LLNL did not significantly alter the status quo.
Lastly, the DOE considered the potential impact of the theft and release of a pathogen by an LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider. To evaluate this threat, the DOE did not use an empirical model, but rather, engaged in a two-step probabilistic analysis: (1) assessing the probability that an insider with access to BSL-3 pathogens would have the motive to commit such an attack; and (2) assessing the public threat assuming that an insider had the access and motive to release a pathogen. With regard to the first prong of the DOE's insider theft and release analysis, the DOE found that the likelihood that an insider would have the motive to commit such an attack was very low, based upon the small number of persons with access to pathogens at the LLNL BSL-3 facility (fewer than ten) and the high number of screenings and protective programs and security procedures, unique to the LLNL BSL-3 facility. In addition to complying with nationwide DOJ risk assessment screenings, HHS authorization screenings, and CDC registration, LLNL BSL-3 requires its employees to also comply with its own monitoring and training system, Select Agent Human Reliability Program. Further, even assuming motive, the DOE found that the risk of effective theft and release by a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider was extremely low because a LLNL BSL-3 terrorist insider would need to further cultivate and prepare any covertly removed pathogen before release. The DOE specifically reasoned that this outcome further rendered the threat of insider theft and release highly improbable because direct removal of any significant quantity of a pathogen would be quickly noticed because (1) material inventories are regularly audited, and (2) the LLNL BSL-3 facility does not even contain large amounts of ready-to-use aerosolized pathogens, but instead stores them in small, frozen samples, in 2 ML vials.