Opinion ID: 187435
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: Future Reductions in Emissions

Text: When it is evident that federally enforceable pollution controls will yield significant near-term reductions in emissions, EPA accounts for those forecasted reductions in estimating an area's emissions levels for the purpose of evaluating contribution. See Letter from Stephen L. Johnson, Adm'r, EPA, to David M. Flannery, Counsel For Midwest Ozone Group et al., Attach. at 13 (Aug. 16, 2007) (Johnson Attach.). Industry petitioners argue that EPA overestimated emissions levels and thus made mistaken designations by failing to account for future reductions from two federal programs: the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and the NOx State Implementation Plan (also known as the NOx SIP Call). See generally North Carolina v. EPA, 531 F.3d 896, 902-03 (D.C.Cir.) (describing programs), modified, 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C.Cir.2008). We find no error in EPA's refusal to consider estimates of lower emissions levels that might result from these two programs. EPA promulgated CAIR to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions from upwind sources in 28 states and the District of Columbia that contribute to nonattainment levels for ozone and PM2.5 in downwind states. Id. at 903. When EPA made its PM2.5 designations, it reasonably decided emissions reductions from CAIR were, at the time, uncertain and should not be a factor in estimating emissions levels for the designations process. See Johnson Attach. at 13 (explaining that EPA would include projected emissions reductions only for federally enforceable agreements that were in place by the time that EPA was required to promulgate the designations in December 2004). As discussed above, designations for C/MSAs, counties, and townships turn in part on contributions from identifiable sources. When EPA made its designation decisions in December 2004, there was no assurance that a state's compliance with CAIR, which did not become effective until March 2005, would result in reduced PM2.5 emissions for specific sources. Indeed, CAIR did not require states to submit to EPA their recommendations as to which power plants would reduce SO2 and NOx emissions and how they would do so until September 2006  nearly two years after the agency had designated areas under the PM2.5 NAAQS. See Rule To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule), 70 Fed. Reg. 25,162, 25,162 (May 12, 2005); Rule To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone (Clean Air Interstate Rule): Reconsideration, 71 Fed. Reg. 25,304, 25,305 (Apr. 28, 2006) (Each State covered by CAIR may independently determine which emission sources to control, and which control measures to adopt.). Even EPA's provisional compliance regime  designed to start reductions in emissions levels before states were required to file their plans  did not take effect until more than a year after the agency had completed designating areas. See Rulemaking on Section 126 Petition from North Carolina To Reduce Interstate Transport of Fine Particulate Matter and Ozone, 71 Fed.Reg. 25,328, 25,328 (Apr. 28, 2006); see also North Carolina, 531 F.3d at 903 (describing program). It was therefore reasonable for EPA to disregard as too speculative any claimed emissions reductions that might come from CAIR when it promulgated the PM2.5 designations in December 2004. See Johnson Attach. at 8 n. 11. It was likewise reasonable for EPA to disregard forecasted reductions from the NOx SIP Call. Created to reduce ozone pollution, this program requires 22 upwind states and the District of Columbia to decrease NOx emissions, a significant precursor to PM2.5, but it has nothing to do with reducing SO2, another significant PM2.5 precursor. See Finding of Significant Contribution and Rulemaking for Certain States in the Ozone Transport Assessment Group Region for Purposes of Reducing Regional Transport of Ozone, 63 Fed.Reg. 57,356, 57,356 (Oct. 27, 1998). The power plants in question are often among the largest sources of SO2 in their respective areas. See Johnson Attach. at 8. EPA concluded that reducing NOx but not SO2 was a step in the right direction for reducing PM2.5, but it fell short of what EPA required to consider forecasted reductions in its designations. See id. at 14. Lacking evidence of significant near-term reductions in SO2, EPA reasonably decided not to alter nonattainment designations based only on forecasted reductions in NOx. See, e.g., Technical Support Document § 6.4.4.1 (Factor 9) (showing EPA designated as attainment Stokes County, North Carolina, because a power plant there installed controls certain to reduce significantly both NOx and SO2).