Opinion ID: 392800
Heading Depth: 4
Heading Rank: 1

Heading: Development of a Durable Filter

Text: 64 The most vigorously controverted issue in this case concerns durability, which the EPA has recognized as the key remaining problem. Collection efficiencies and regeneration techniques have progressed to the point where the most critical issue is whether the efficiency and regeneration mechanism can be maintained over the useful life of the vehicle. 45 Fed.Reg. 14,496, 14,498 (1980). Both parties focus on the GM Opel test, in which a metal mesh trap survived over 12,000 miles; the EPA views this test as a stirring demonstration of how far research had progressed in the brief springtime of trap-oxidizer research, while GM sees the 12,000-mile mark as insubstantial compared to the 50,000- to 100,000-mile goal. 65 The EPA has predicted that the necessary work can be accomplished in time for 1985 model year production. The agency points to the wide variety of materials that have demonstrated appropriate initial efficiencies; several of these are hybrids, 28 suggesting that new combinations of present candidates, rather than hitherto untested substances, may provide the answer. The EPA noted the rapid pace of achievement since attention turned to trap-oxidizers: 66 Considerable progress has occurred in the last 11/2 years. Initial aftertreatment research concentrated on the use of simple traps and gasoline engine catalytic converters, with basic problems of efficiency and backpressure. In the last 11/2 years we have seen marked improvements in efficiency and backpressure, and more importantly, a general consensus that the trap-oxidizer can periodically (and possibly even continually) incinerate the particulate matter. Methods for regeneration initiation and control have been investigated and repetitive incineration has been demonstrated for several trap-oxidizers. 67 45 Fed.Reg. 14,496, 14,498 (1980). The small number of successful tests reflected the recent focus on trap-oxidizers, not a persistent record of failure: At this time, EPA has limited trap-oxidizer durability data, as researchers have been reluctant to fund durability testing until other, more basic questions were solved. Id. 29 Finally, the manufacturers themselves had projected the possibility of introducing trap-oxidizers in 1985 models. See Summary and Analysis of Comments on the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking at 40-41 (1979) (hereinafter cited as Analysis of Comments), J.A. 358-59. The agency fully recognized that no durable, efficient filter material was presently available, but concluded that, based on current progress and past achievements, there were sufficient grounds for believing that one would be developed in time for the 1985 standard. 68 We conclude that these are plausible reasons for a determination that the industry is capable of solving the durability problem in the allotted time. The EPA could reasonably refuse to be discouraged by the limited initial success, as the project is relatively young. The rapidity of recent progress is a factor that the agency may consider in making a prediction of future capabilities. See Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. v. OSHA, 509 F.2d 1301, 1309 (2d Cir. 1975), cert. denied, 421 U.S. 992, 95 S.Ct. 1998, 44 L.Ed.2d 482 (1975). And the industry's own predictions, while not determinative, support the view that success in this kind of research can realistically be expected within the proposed time frame. We conclude that the EPA's durability prediction, though uncertain, is no more uncertain than such estimates inherently must be, and that the EPA has met the requirement of reasoned decisionmaking. 69