Opinion ID: 1206802
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: The District Court's Use of Population Density

Text: The District Court first erred in concluding that New York City's population density makes Cavera's offense more serious here than in the nation generally. While it is possible that this is the case, as my dissenting colleague also explains, neither the data relied on by the District Court nor reasonably available statistics support that conclusion. The District Court cited evidence showing that New York City is the most densely populated city in the country and evidence it claimed showed that homicide rates in large urban areas remain substantially higher than in suburban and rural areas. Lucania, 379 F.Supp.2d at 295 & n. 3 (citing National League of Cities, 30 Most Densely Populated Cities, http:// www.nlc.org/about_cities/cities_101/187. aspx (last visited Nov. 20, 2008); U.S. Dep't of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Homicide Trends in the U.S., Trends by City Size (hereinafter Trends by City Size ), http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/city. htm (last visited Nov. 20, 2008)). It then reasoned that an above-Guidelines sentence would not cause unwarranted disparities because [f]irearms are less likely to cause harm in more rural areas, if only because they are less likely to cause harm to innocent bystanders. Lucania, 379 F.Supp.2d at 296. But, nothing in the reports cited by the District Court supports the conclusion that the risk of harm from firearms is greater in more densely populated cities than in the rest of the country. According to the data cited, there are more homicides in large cities than in small cities and suburban and rural areas. See Trends by City Size. The report cited, however, does not compare homicide rates in these geographic subdivisions, as the District Court apparently believed, see Lucania, 379 F.Supp.2d at 295; rather, it compares the absolute number of homicides in large cities and other areas. As my dissenting colleague notes, when homicide victimization rates per 100,000 inhabitants are considered, the data reflect that recently homicide rates have not directly correlated with city size: cities with populations between 250,000 and one million have higher homicide rates than cities with one million or more residents. See Trends by City Size: Homicide Victimization Rates per 100,000 Population for Cities over 100,000 by Population Group, http://www.ojp. usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/tables/vcitytab.htm (last visited Nov. 20, 2008). [4] When we turn to the key metric  relative rates of gun-related homicides in New York City versus elsewhere  the statistics do not support the District Court's conclusion. Homicide rates in the region that includes New York City appear to reflect the national average, while [r]ates of murder, and especially those involving guns, are higher in southern regions of the United Statesin the East South Central, West South Central, and the South Atlantic regions. U.S. Dep't of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Homicide Trends in the U.S., Regional Trends, http://www.ojp.usdoj. gov/bjs/homicide/region.htm (last visited Nov. 20, 2008) (The rates of the Middle Atlantic [New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania] and East North Central regions were closest to the national average of all regions.). In addition, in view of the fact that almost eighty percent of the United States population lives in urban areas, see U.S. Census Bureau, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT OF THE UNITED STATES: 2004-2005, Population 28, tbl.25, available at http://www. census.gov/prod/2004pubs/04statab/pop.pdf (last visited Nov. 20, 2008), the assumption that New York City is far from the national average just because most other locales are more rural, without further analysis, seems tenuous at best. Nor, as my dissenting colleague points out, do the data suggest that innocent bystanders face a heightened risk of harm from firearms in New York City. In 2007, [v]ery few victims of homicides were strangers to their perpetrators or were killed in random attacks. Press Release, New York Police Department, Mayor Bloomberg and Commissioner Kelly Announce that City is on course to set a New Record in Crime Reduction  Fewest Murders Since Records Have Been Kept, No.2007-066 (Dec. 26, 2007), http://www. nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/pr/pr_2007_066. shtml (last visited Nov. 20, 2008); see also Al Baker, City Homicides Still Dropping, to Under 500, N.Y. TIMES, Nov. 23, 2007, at Al (reporting that the Police Department's official crime statistics showed in November 2007 that with roughly half the killings analyzed, only 35 were found to be committed by strangers, a microscopic statistic in a city of more than 8.2 million). This appears to have been the case at the time of Cavera's criminal conduct as well. Homicide statistics for 2004 reflect that [s]treet murders are down. Innocent bystanders, once the subject of so many screaming headlines, no longer need Kevlar.... New Yorkers are far less likely to be killed by a stranger or casual acquaintance now than 15 years ago. Shaila K. Dewan, As Murders Fall, New Tactics Are Tried Against Remainder, N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 31, 2004, at Bl; see also Greg Gittrich, Death (Mostly) by Association, N.Y. DAILY NEWS, Oct. 1, 2004, at 3 (quoting Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly in 2004 as stating that [i]t is highly unlikely that a tourist or a law-abiding citizen would be the victim of murder). If nothing else, the statistics show that it is neither obvious nor common sense that firearms present a heightened risk of injury to bystanders in New York City because it is densely populated, at least not in the recent years during which Cavera committed his crime. [5] In sum, the fact that more homicides occur in large cities than in rural or suburban areas does not support the inference that the rate of homicides is greater in New York City than on average in this country. Even assuming a higher homicide rate in New York City, the fact that New York City is more densely populated does not support the inference that more innocent bystanders may be hurt by gun violence in New York City than on average in this country. And even assuming that more guns in New York City means more potential for harm here than on average elsewhere, there is nothing to support the assumption that trafficked guns in New York City are more likely to cause harm than they would on average in the country.