Opinion ID: 179768
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 4

Heading: NMFS's Use of Bioenergetic Modeling

Text: Finally, plaintiffs challenge NMFS's use of bioenergetic modeling to supplement the Corps' observation-based estimates of sea lion predation. Plaintiffs have not demonstrated that NMFS's estimates are arbitrary or capricious under the APA. We therefore uphold the agency's use of bioenergetic modeling. As we have explained, the Corps observed pinniped predation at the Bonneville Dam between 2002 and 2007 and produced predation estimates based on those actual observations. NMFS determined that the Corps' observation-based method underestimated the number of fish killed by sea lions at the dam and therefore supplemented the Corps' figures with estimates produced through a bioenergetic consumption model. [11] Although plaintiffs raise a number of objections to NMFS's reliance on the bioenergetic estimates to augment the Corps' predation rates, their arguments are unpersuasive. First, there is no meaningful dispute that the Corps' observation-based estimates lead to some undercounting. Thus, NMFS's conclusion that [t]he actual number of salmonids consumed is certainly larger than the numbers reported by the Corps is not unreasonable. The Marine Mammal Commission agreed with the agency's conclusion that the Corps understated predation, concurring in NMFS's conclusion that the number of pinnipeds present at the dam likely is greater than the number observed. NMFS's decision to look beyond the Corps' observation-based estimates was therefore reasonable. See Lands Council v. McNair, 537 F.3d 981, 993-94 (9th Cir.2008) (en banc) ([A]s non-scientists, we decline to impose bright-line rules on the [agency] regarding particular means that it must take in every case to show us that it has met the [statutory] requirements. Rather, we hold that the [agency] must support its conclusions that a project meets the requirements of the [statute] ... with studies that the agency, in its expertise, deems reliable.), abrogated in part on other grounds by Winter v. Natural Res. Def. Council, Inc., 555 U.S. 7, 129 S.Ct. 365, 172 L.Ed.2d 249 (2008). Second, plaintiffs have not demonstrated that the bioenergetic models used by the agency produced unreliable estimates. Plaintiffs rely on a letter in which the Marine Mammal Commission questioned some of the agency's early estimates based on bioenergetic modeling. Plaintiffs have not shown, however, that the Commission criticized the agency's final bioenergetic calculations. Nor have they shown that the Commission asserted that modeling was an improper method of helping to estimate actual sea lion predation. Plaintiffs also rely on a declaration submitted by their expert, Dr. Andrew Trites, that challenges some of the assumptions of NMFS's bioenergetic consumption model. Dr. Trites' submission, however, demonstrates only that several of the agency's factual assumptions are subject to some dispute, not that the agency's assumptions were arbitrary or capricious. See Marsh v. Oregon Natural Res. Council, 490 U.S. 360, 378, 109 S.Ct. 1851, 104 L.Ed.2d 377 (1989) (When specialists express conflicting views, an agency must have discretion to rely on the reasonable opinions of its own qualified experts even if, as an original matter, a court might find contrary views more persuasive.); see also Baltimore Gas & Elec. Co. v. Natural Res. Def. Council, 462 U.S. 87, 103, 103 S.Ct. 2246, 76 L.Ed.2d 437 (1983) (when an agency is making predictions, within its area of special expertise ..., as opposed to simple findings of fact, a reviewing court must generally be at its most deferential). Furthermore, in measuring sea lion predation, NMFS relied primarily on the Corps' estimates and only secondarily on the bioenergetic consumption estimates. See Pinniped Removal Authority, 73 Fed. Reg. at 15,485, 15,486. NMFS used the bioenergetic data to supplement rather than supplant the Corps' estimates. Finally, we observe that the bioenergetic consumption estimates do not appear to have been material to NMFS's decision. NMFS determined that sea lion predation was significant under the MMPA even at the mortality levels supplied by the Corps. See id. at 15,485. The agency's decision thus would have been the same even if the Corps' estimates were not supplemented by the bioenergetic consumption estimates.