Opinion ID: 3065942
Heading Depth: 4
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: The “Five Considerations”

Text: Aside from the four “danger signs,” our decision in Eddleman addressed broadly what Justice Breyer called “five sets of considerations.” Id. at 261. The five considerations were: (1) Whether the “contribution limits will significantly restrict the amount of funding available for challengers to run competitive campaigns”; (2) whether “political parties [must] abide by exactly the same low contribution limits that apply to other contributors”; (3) how “volunteer services” are treated; (4) whether “contribution limits are . . . adjusted for inflation”; and (5) whether there exists “any special justification that might warrant a contribution limit so low or so restrictive.” Id. at 253-61. In Eddleman, we addressed each of these considerations in some way. (1). With respect to the first consideration, whether the limits restrict challengers, the Court in Randall considered statistical analyses relevant to discerning “the critical question . . . [, i.e., whether] a candidate running against an incumbent officeholder [can] mount an effective challenge.” Id. at 255. The Court noted that it emphasized the competitiveness of races because it was a proxy for the relative ability of a challenger to overcome the advantages of incumbency. Id. In Eddleman, we recognized the importance of considering “all dollars likely to be forthcoming in a campaign, rather 12690 LAIR v. BULLOCK than the isolated contribution, and . . . consider[ed] factors such as whether the candidate can look elsewhere for money, the percentage of contributions that are affected, the total cost of a campaign, and how much money each candidate would lose.” Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1094 (internal citations omitted). We repeatedly emphasized that the mere fact that a candidate could have raised more money without the limits was not the relevant inquiry; rather, the issue was whether the limit prevented a campaign from being effective. Id. at 1095 (“[A]part from bald, conclusory allegations that their campaigns would have been more effective had they been able to raise more money, none of the witnesses offered any specifics as to why their campaigns were not effective.”) (internal quotation marks omitted). We found that “Montana candidates remain able to mount effective campaigns.” Id. (describing candidates who claimed the limits prevented effective campaigns but some of which raised more money after the limits were in place and another who won with a large surplus of campaign funds). Additionally, even though the contribution limits restrict the total amount of funds raised, candidates were still able to raise funds “well within the range of money needed to run an effective . . . campaign.” Id. at 1094-95. Specific to the Court’s concern with challengers to incumbency, we discussed provisions that increased the ability of challengers to overcome the effects of incumbency. First, we pointed out that “§ 13-37-216 also contains a provision preventing incumbents from using excess funds from one campaign in future campaigns.” Id. at 1095. Second, we found that “the average gap between the total amount of money raised by incumbents and challengers for all legislative races was only $65.00 per race,” so there was almost no difference between incumbents and challengers in the amount of money they raised. Id. Third, relying on Buckley and Shrink Missouri, we suggested that there was no evidence that Montana’s limitations allowed incumbents to leverage their incumbency unfairly against their challengers. Id. at 1095-96. LAIR v. BULLOCK 12691 The district court did not look to our opinion in Eddleman. Instead, it conducted its own inquiry. For example, it compared the Vermont limits for state senate and house with those of Montana and concluded that Montana’s were lower. Opinion and Order at 29. We think the district court did not account for one key difference between Vermont and Montana. While Vermont’s contribution limits apply to a “twoyear general election cycle,” Randall, 548 U.S. at 238-39, Montana’s limits apply to “each election,” Mont. Code Ann. § 13-37-216(1)(a), meaning that if there is a contested primary, the district court has understated Montana’s limits by half. See Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1088 (“[T]he amount an individual may contribute to a candidate doubles when the candidate participates in a contested primary.”). In other words, if there is a primary, Montana’s limit for the state legislature is $320, which is greater than Vermont’s limit for state senate ($300) and much higher than its limit for state house ($200). Additionally, we are concerned that the evidence the district court received and credited—which because of our time constraints, the parties have not briefed and we have not examined as thoroughly as we ordinarily would like—does not adequately account for the revenues actually available to candidates. For example, Montana only requires that the identity of donors contributing $35 or more, and their aggregate amount of contributions, be disclosed. Mont. Code Ann. § 1337-229(2)-(3). While a candidate is required to disclose an “itemized account of proceeds that total less than $35 from a person,” the donor’s identity is not disclosed and therefore does not count against an individual’s aggregate contribution limit. Mont. Code Ann. § 13-37-229(8). Thus, it is likely that Montana’s limits understate the actual contributions made to the candidates. These are matters that, undoubtedly, would benefit from briefing and oral argument but raise serious concerns in our minds whether there is sufficient evidence to overrule Eddleman.6 6 Neither the State of Montana, nor the appellees, had access to the district court’s Opinion and Order when the motion and opposition were filed. The State of Montana, however, had the benefit of the district court’s Opinion and Order before filing its reply the next day. 12692 LAIR v. BULLOCK (2). With respect to the second consideration, the limits on political parties, the Court was concerned that Vermont’s statute required “that political parties abide by exactly the same low contribution limits that apply to other contributors.” Randall, 548 U.S. at 256. The cumulative restrictions imposed by the Vermont statute “severely inhibit[ed] collective political activity by preventing a political party from using contributions by small donors to provide meaningful assistance to any individual candidate,” including a party’s ability to engage in “coordinated spending on advertising, candidate events, voter lists, mass mailings, even yard signs.” Randall, 548 U.S. at 256-58. In contrast to Vermont’s statute, we noted, in Eddleman, that in Montana political parties were not subject to the same low contribution limit as individuals. Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1094 (discussing the increase in amount that can be contributed by political parties, “almost doubling the amount that may be contributed in some races”). Despite the obvious differences between Vermont and Montana, the district court concluded that the Montana statute was inconsistent with this factor because “political committees [were held] to the same contribution limits as individuals” and this “inhibit[s] the associational rights of political committees and, consequently, a full and robust exchange of views.” Opinion and Order at 32 (internal quotation marks omitted). Instead of addressing Randall’s concern with limits on political parties, the district court focused on limits on political committees under § 13-37-216. Political committees are not political parties. Political committees—including PACs and local party affiliates—are subject to the same limits as individuals. Mont. Code Ann. § 13-37-216(3). “Political party organizations,” however, are exempted from this restriction under the statute and subject to a much higher cap. For example, individuals and political committees may not contribute more than $630 to a gubernatorial candidate, but a political party organization can contribute up to $22,600. Id. LAIR v. BULLOCK 12693 § 13-37-216(1)(a), (3)(a), as adjusted by Admin. R. Mont. § 44.10.338(1)(a), (2)(a). Furthermore, the district court’s opinion fails to acknowledge that even political committees remain free to spend as much money as they desire promoting a candidate. See Citizens United v. Fed. Election Comm’n, 558 U.S. 310 (2010); see also Am. Tradition P’ship, Inc. v. Bullock, 132 S. Ct. 2490 (2012). As we pointed out, the PACs have many other ways “to convey their support.” Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1094. They just cannot give the money directly to the candidate. Thus, the district court’s analysis on this point is inapposite; under the Montana statute political committees remain free to participate in a “full and robust exchange of views.” (3). The third consideration is the treatment of volunteer services. Montana’s scheme, however, is far more permissive than Vermont’s statute. In Randall, Vermont counted expenses incurred during the provision of volunteer services as contributions. Randall, 548 U.S. at 259-60. As we explained, “the [Montana] statute in no way prevents PACs[, and individuals,] from affiliating with their chosen candidates in ways other than direct contributions, such as donating money to a candidate’s political party, volunteering individual members’ services, sending direct mail to their supporters, or taking out independent newspaper, radio, or television ads to convey their support.” Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1094. Moreover, we noted that nothing prevents “individuals and PACs [from] . . . engag[ing] in independent political expression, to associate actively through volunteering their services, and to assist in a limited but nonetheless substantial extent in supporting the candidates and committees with financial resources.” Id. at 1096. The district court concluded that Montana treats volunteer services in the same manner as Vermont, “not exclud[ing] the expenses . . . volunteers incur, such as travel expenses, in the course of campaign activities.” Opinion and Order at 34 12694 LAIR v. BULLOCK (internal quotation marks omitted). This conclusion appears to be error. Testimony provided by the plaintiff ’s own witnesses —as well as a stipulation of the parties—established that expenses incurred by volunteers are not considered contributions under Montana law. Tr. at 50-54, 74-76, 154-56 (Sept. 12, 2012). Even more importantly, other testimony established that an individual, political party, or political committee can actually hire staff for a candidate, and that would not be considered a contribution. Id. (4). The fourth consideration is whether the limits are adjusted for inflation. Vermont’s limits were not. Randall, 548 U.S. at 261. As we noted in Eddleman, the Montana contribution limits are regularly adjusted for inflation. Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1089. The district court recognized that Montana adjusts its limits for inflation, but suggested that the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) is a flawed method of accounting for inflation. Opinion and Order at 35-36. The district court made that determination on the basis of near anecdotal testimony that the cost of pencils, yard signs, postage, and fuel have increased faster than the CPI. Id. at 13. The district court also noted that the CPI does not account for certain inputs that an effective campaign requires. Id. at 35. This is too thin a reed to cling to in order to overturn our decision in Eddleman. We do not doubt that the CPI fails to capture all changes in campaign costs. It is, however, a wellrecognized mechanism for adjusting for inflation, and we have no indication that the Supreme Court intended that states do anything else to “index limits.” Randall, 548 U.S. at 261. We continue to believe that Montana’s statute will survive the Court’s analysis in Randall. If we were to examine the district court’s findings, its methodology would raise a number of questions. For example, the district court apparently did not consider whether pencils, yard signs, postage, and fuel fall within the underlying basket of goods used to calculate the LAIR v. BULLOCK 12695 CPI, nor did it question whether other campaign costs—such as office space—may have gone down during the same period. Further, even as we acknowledge that campaign costs have gone up over time, so have contribution limits risen since their inception in 1994, yet the district court made no attempt to compare the overall increase in the contribution limits with the overall increases in campaign inputs that were the subject of testimony at trial. (5). The fifth and final consideration is a catchall: Whether there are any “special justification[s]” for the limits that “bring about . . . serious associational and expressive problems.” Randall, 548 U.S. at 261. We identified at least one justification for why Montana’s contribution limits are among the lowest in the nation: “[T]he State of Montana remains one of the least expensive states in the nation in which to run a political campaign.” Eddleman, 343 F.3d at 1094. Thus, unlike Randall, where Vermont’s justification was based solely upon the prevention of corruption, Montana specifically justified the low limits based on the relative inexpense of campaigning in Montana, a state where, for many offices, “campaign[ing] primarily [takes place] door-to-door, and only occasionally [through] advertis[ing] on radio and television.” Id. [4] Most importantly, in Eddleman, after considering all of the factors deemed important by Justice Breyer’s plurality opinion in Randall, we held that the Montana contribution limit does not prevent candidates from amassing the resources necessary to run an effective, competitive campaign. Id. at 1094-95, 1098. We cannot conclude that Randall is, in any material way, inconsistent with our analysis in Eddleman. Therefore, under Miller, we remain bound by Eddleman.7 7 We also note that the district court failed to perform a careful severability analysis. Instead, it relied on the Court’s severability analysis of a quite different Vermont statute—leveraging what might be the only offensive part of this statute to strike down the entire statute, the majority of which has not even been effectively challenged. See Opinion and Order at 36-37. 12696 LAIR v. BULLOCK