Opinion ID: 1593630
Heading Depth: 2
Heading Rank: 4

Heading: Admissibility of the Actuarial Instruments

Text: Although relatively new in the judicial context, the actuarial method of risk assessment has been used rather extensively in other settings. E. Janus & R. Prenky, Forensic Use of Actuarial Risk Assessment with Sex Offenders: Accuracy, Admissibility, and Accountability, 40 Am. Crim. L.Rev. 1443, 1454 (2003). Dr. Hoberman explained the methodology of both actuarial instruments in this case. He testified that the Static-99 is a ten-item measure developed by looking at the characteristics of approximately 4,000 sex offenders to see which characteristics they possessed were associated with the likelihood of reoffense within 15 years, as defined by reconviction. [12] The items that make up the Static-99 include prior sex offenses as measured by arrest or conviction, history of general violence, the number of prior sentencing occasions, marital status, and characteristics of the victim such as sex and whether the victim was a stranger. Dr. Hoberman explained that the MnSOST-R is a sixteen-item measure developed by looking at the characteristics of approximately 1,000 individuals to see what characteristics were highly correlated to rearrest for sexual offenses within six years of release. The items include whether the victim was a stranger, the age of the victims, whether force was used, employment history of the offender, the offender's drug use at or around the time of offense, age of the offender, whether the offender has completed chemical dependency or sex offender treatment, and whether the offender had any disciplinary offenses during his or her most recent incarceration. When Dr. Hoberman applied the Static-99 to Murrell he found that, according to the instrument, a person with Murrell's characteristics falls into the high risk category for reoffense. The score Murrell received is associated with a 52 percent chance of reconviction within fifteen years. Dr. Hoberman stated that the MnSOST-R, as applied by him to Murrell, placed Murrell in the high risk category for reoffense. According to Dr. Hoberman, the most recent research indicates that individuals in the high risk category of the MnSOST-R have a 72 percent chance of being rearrested for a sex offense within six years. Murrell argues that the trial court abused its discretion in admitting Dr. Hoberman's testimony as to the results of the Static-99 and MnSOST-R actuarial instruments. Specifically, he argues that the instruments reflect only the results of a group analysis and, therefore, are irrelevant and not helpful to the jury in that they do not address the issue of whether Murrell is likely to reoffend.
The determination of whether to admit evidence is within the sound discretion of the trial court. A trial court will be found to have abused its discretion when a ruling is clearly against the logic of the circumstances then before the court and is so arbitrary and unreasonable as to shock the sense of justice and indicate a lack of careful consideration. State v. Johns, 34 S.W.3d 93, 111 (Mo. banc 2000). This Court's direct appeal review is for prejudice, not mere error, and the trial court's decision will be reversed only if the error was so prejudicial that it deprived the defendant of a fair trial. State v. Strong, 142 S.W.3d 702, 710 (Mo. banc 2004). Trial court error is not prejudicial unless there is a reasonable probability that the trial court's error affected the outcome of the trial. State v. Zink, 181 S.W.3d 66, 73 (Mo. banc 2005).
Missouri's SVP statute is civil in nature. See Kansas v. Hendricks, 521 U.S. at 367-68, 117 S.Ct. 2072. Admission of expert testimony in civil cases is governed by section 490.065. State Board of Registration for the Healing Arts v. Edward W. McDonagh, 123 S.W.3d 146, 153 (Mo. banc 2003). The statute provides, in relevant part: 1. In any civil action, if scientific, technical or other specialized knowledge will assist the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue, a witness qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education may testify thereto in the form of an opinion or otherwise. . . . 3. The facts or data in a particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to him at or before the hearing and must be of a type reasonably relied upon by experts in the field in forming opinions or inferences upon the subject and must be otherwise reasonably reliable. Sections 490.065.1, 490.065.3. The first issues of admissibility under 490.065.1 are whether specialized knowledge will assist the trier of fact and whether the expert is qualified by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education to render an opinion. Sec. 490.065.1. Murrell couches his relevance argument in a way that attacks Dr. Hoberman's utilization of the actuarial instruments in this case as not helpful to the trier of fact under 490.065.1. His focus on that section is misguided. 490.065.1 involves only the questions of whether expert testimony will assist the jury in understanding the evidence or determining a fact in issue and, if so, if the particular expert is qualified to testify. Murrell does not contest those two issues in this case. The admissibility of the actuarial instruments, and Murrell's relevance argument, is controlled by section 490.065.3. Under the statute, if expert testimony is needed and if the expert is qualified to testify under subsection 1, the expert is entitled to base his opinion upon facts or data 1) of a type reasonably relied upon by experts in the field, and 2) which must otherwise be reasonably reliable. If facts or data are both reasonably reliable and reasonably relied on by experts in the field when forming an opinion on the matter at issue, they will necessarily be relevant to the case, and testimony as to the facts and data will be admissible. Dr. Hoberman was asked if the data in this case, the actuarial instruments, were the type of instruments or data reasonably relied upon by experts in the field in forming opinions about a person's risk of future sexual violence. He answered affirmatively. The State presented evidence of the frequent use of actuarial instruments and their general acceptance in the scientific community. Dr. Hoberman stated that in almost every SVP case he had participated in, one of the [department of mental health] evaluators has used at least one actuarial measure and typically two, the Static-99 and the MnSOST-R. Dr. Hoberman testified that the Static-99 is used in fifteen of the seventeen states with SVP statutes. In the past two years, reported cases in at least twelve states have recognized experts' reliance on the Static-99 as a risk-assessment tool in cases involving sexually violent predators. [13] At least five Missouri cases in the past three years reference the admission of the Static-99. [14] Actuarial instruments are not only relied upon by the states in their cases against alleged SVPs, but also by experts for sexual offenders as well. See In re Commitment of Simons, 213 Ill.2d 523, 290 Ill.Dec. 610, 821 N.E.2d 1184, 1192, (2004) (citing People v. Calhoun, 118 Cal.App.4th 519, 13 Cal.Rptr.3d 166, 168 (2004)). It is clear that actuarial instruments are reasonably relied upon by experts in evaluating a sexually violent predator's risk of reoffense. The second issue under 490.065.3 is whether the data is reasonably reliable. Dr. Hoberman testified that it was his belief that the MnSOST-R has been validated and is widely accepted. He cited an authoritative text entitled Evaluating Sex Offenders, by Dr. Dennis Doren, that advocates the use of the Static-99 and MnSOST-R instruments. He testified that another authoritative text, Forensic Management of Sexual Offenders, lists the MnSOST-R as one of the risk assessment tools used in the evaluation of sexual offenders. Dr. Hoberman instructed that the Static-99 has been subject to at least twenty-two cross-validation studies bolstering its reliability. He stated that the MnSOST-R has also been subject to cross-validation. Indeed, many scholars have concluded that the predictive efficacy of actuarial methods of risk assessment is superior to clinically derived assessments of risk. E. Janus & R. Prenky, Forensic Use of Actuarial Risk Assessment with Sex Offenders: Accuracy, Admissibility, and Accountability, 40 Am.Crim. L.Rev. 1443, 1457 (2003). There was testimony that, contrary to the contention of Murrell, the Static-99 is relevant to the risk of recidivism for the individual as well as the test group. Dr. Hoberman stated that the instrument provides experts with an indicator of the factors that sex offenders who recidivate have in common. He instructed that the expert then looks at the individual being evaluated to determine whether he possesses the characteristics shown by the Static-99 to be indicative of recidivism. The person being evaluated is then given a score based on the characteristics he or she possesses, which indicates the percentage of likelihood of reoffense for a person with those characteristics; in this case Murrell. Finally, any concern about the accuracy of the actuarial instruments was made known to the jury and goes to the weight the evidence should receive. Dr. Hoberman illuminated the issues surrounding the accuracy of these instruments and their limitations. He agreed that there is no way to know what personality disorders the individuals making up the Static-99 suffered from. He instructed that at least two experts in the field have criticized the MnSOST-R as over-predicting the risk of reoffense. On cross-examination Dr. Hoberman admitted that there is no way to determine for certain that Murrell will commit a sexually violent offense if released. He agreed that he could offer nothing more than probabilities and there was no way to tell whether Murrell would be in the class of the 52 percent of people who were reconvicted, as guided by the Static-99, or the 48 percent who were not. The trial court was correct in finding that the actuarial instruments were reasonably reliable. This holding does not ignore Murrell's argument that the actuarial instruments are irrelevant because they are a product of the recidivism rate of the test group, not the individual being evaluated. Under the statute, determination of whether the facts and data relied upon are relevant is made relative to the testimony of the expert. If the facts and data are shown to be reasonably relied upon by experts in the field, they are necessarily relevant to the issue the expert is addressing. The only way to attack the admissibility of that information is to show that the facts and data are not the type experts in the field are relying on or are not reliable. Murrell has simply failed to show that actuarial instruments are not reasonably relied upon or that they are not reliable in evaluating an SVP's risk of reoffense. Additionally, it is essential to note that Dr. Hoberman's testimony indicated actuarial instruments are merely one of many tools considered in the evaluation and that he does not conclude his analysis of a person's future risk on the instruments alone. Dr. Hoberman stated that characteristics unique to the individual are omitted from the instruments and must be considered. He reviewed approximately 7,000 to 10,000 pages of Murrell's records during his assessment. He considered Murrell's offense history and personal characteristics, such as his mental abnormality, his past substance abuse, and his periodic refusal to take his medication. In other words, the evidence indicates Dr. Hoberman made his own clinical assessment in coming to a conclusion regarding Murrell's risk of reoffense and the actuarial instruments were used to corroborate his assessment; they were not the sole basis for it. Admissibility should not be confused with submissibility. The holding today does not suggest that testimony as to the results of an actuarial instrument as applied to an individual standing alone, without the accompanying independent clinical assessment, would be a sufficiently reliable basis to commit an individual as an SVP. As courts in other states have recognized, testimony incorporating the results of actuarial instruments is admissible in cases involving the civil commitment of an SVP when the instruments are used in conjunction with a full clinical evaluation. See In re Commitment of Simons, 213 Ill.2d 523, 290 Ill.Dec. 610, 821 N.E.2d 1184, 1192 (2004) (actuarial instruments are generally accepted by professionals who assess sexually violent offenders and therefore are perfectly admissible in a court of law); In re Detention of Holtz, 653 N.W.2d 613, 619-20 (Iowa App. 2002) (actuarial instruments admissible when used in conjunction with clinical evaluation). In this case, there was ample evidence that Dr. Hoberman conducted an independent clinical evaluation. Moreover, the sole issue before the Court is whether an expert in a civil commitment trial may testify as to the results of actuarial instruments. The Court does not hold that an expert can argue based on the Static-99 that the particular offender has a 52% chance of reoffending. Rather, the Court holds the expert may base his or her opinion on actuarials because they constitute facts or data of a type reasonably relied upon and are otherwise reasonably reliable. The expert may testify that according to actuarials a certain percentage of people with characteristics like Murrell's do reoffend; that data can be part of the assessment as to whether Murrell is more likely than not to reoffend because although actuarials are not determinative, they are relevant to that determination. At trial, the jury heard the following: [Prosecutor]: So does it (Static-99) give you any percentages or produce a result that comes out in percentages? [Dr. Hoberman]: The score Mr. Murrell received is associated with a 52 percent chance of being reconvicted for a sex offense over a 15 year period of time. To the extent this exchange was meant to convey to the jury that Murrell himself has a 52 percent chance of reoffending within the next 15 years, it was a misapplication of the actuarial results. However, the specific question and answer were not objected to by the defense and have not been challenged in Murrell's points relied on. Even had Murrell raised the issue here, the Court would not find plain error. On cross-examination of Dr. Hoberman, the jury heard the following testimony: [Defense Counsel]: You don't know if Mr. Murrell would fall in that 52 percent (of individuals who reoffended) or in that 48 percent (of individuals who did not), do you? [Dr. Hoberman]: I do not. [Defense Counsel]: There's no way to tell? [Dr. Hoberman]: No way to tell. [Defense Counsel]: Wouldn't you agree with me that it's kind of hard to talk specifics regarding Mr. Murrell and the Static-99 if you don't know exactly which side of this he fits in? [Dr. Hoberman]: I think what you can say is what I said, which is that he has characteristics. You don't know which side he fits in, which is why you look at other actuarial measures, to use as many of them as possible to see to what degree they converge. [Defense Counsel]: Okay. But looking at the Static-99, you can't say whether Mr. Murrell was in the 52 percent number or the 48 percent number who don't reoffend? [Dr. Hoberman]: Correct. Any improper characterization conveyed to the jury was cured by Dr. Hoberman's testimony on cross-examination. In sum, the trial court correctly held that the actuarial instruments utilized by Dr. Hoberman in assessing Murrell's risk of recidivism constituted facts or data of a type reasonably relied upon by experts in the field and which were otherwise reasonably reliable. The testimony regarding Dr. Hoberman's utilization of those instruments was, therefore, admissible under 490.065.