Opinion ID: 572145
Heading Depth: 3
Heading Rank: 2

Heading: Statistical Proof of Disparate Impact

Text: 23 We have in the past looked to the EEOC Uniform Guidelines on Employment Selection Procedures, 29 C.F.R. § 1607.4D (adverse impact may be inferred where, assuming not too small a sample, the members of a protected group are selected at a rate that is less than four-fifths of the rate at which a more successful group is selected) (EEOC Guidelines), for guidance in determining whether a disparity is sufficiently substantial to violate Title VII, see, e.g., Bushey v. New York State Civil Serv. Comm'n, 733 F.2d 220, 225-26 (2d Cir.1984), and also have relied on standard deviation analysis for this purpose. See, e.g., Guardians Ass'n of New York City Police Dep't, Inc. v. Civil Serv. Comm'n of the City of New York, 630 F.2d 79, 86 & n. 4 (2d Cir.1980). 24 The EEOC Guidelines state in relevant part: 25 A selection rate for any race, sex, or ethnic group which is less than four-fifths ( 4/5) (or eighty percent) of the rate for the group with the highest rate will generally be regarded by the Federal enforcement agencies as evidence of adverse impact, while a greater than four-fifths rate will generally not be regarded by Federal enforcement agencies as evidence of adverse impact. Smaller differences in selection rate may nevertheless constitute adverse impact, where they are significant in both statistical and practical terms.... 26 29 C.F.R. § 1607.4D (1990). The Guidelines provide no more than a rule of thumb to aid in determining whether an employment practice has a disparate impact. See Watson, 487 U.S. at 995-96 n. 3, 108 S.Ct. at 2789 n. 3. Standard deviation analysis measures the probability that a result is a random deviation from the predicted result--the more standard deviations the lower the probability the result is a random one. See Ottaviani v. State Univ. of New York at New Paltz, 875 F.2d 365, 371 (2d Cir.1989); D. Baldus and J. Cole, Statistical Proof of Discrimination, § 9.03 (1980) (defining standard deviation, explaining and applying it). Social scientists consider a finding of two standard deviations significant, meaning there is about one chance in 20 that the explanation for a deviation could be random and the deviation must be accounted for by some factor other than chance. Ottaviani, 875 F.2d at 371. A finding of two or three standard deviations (one in 384 chance the result is random) is generally highly probative of discriminatory treatment. Id. at 372. 27 There is no minimum statistical threshold requiring a mandatory finding that a plaintiff has demonstrated a violation of Title VII. Courts should take a case-by-case approach in judging the significance or substantiality of disparities, one that considers not only statistics but also all the surrounding facts and circumstances. Id. 372-73; see also International Bhd. of Teamsters, 431 U.S. at 340, 97 S.Ct. at 1857 (statistics come in infinite variety and ... their usefulness depends on all of the surrounding facts and circumstances). 28 Applying these principles, we believe Judge Duffy correctly held there was not a sufficiently substantial disparity in the rates at which black and white candidates passed the written examination. Plainly, evidence that the pass rate of black candidates was more than four-fifths that of white candidates is highly persuasive proof that there was not a significant disparity. See EEOC Guidelines, 29 C.F.R. § 1607.4D (1990); cf. Bushey, 733 F.2d at 225-26 (applying 80 percent rule). Additionally, though the disparity was found to be statistically significant, it was of limited magnitude, see Bilingual Bicultural Coalition on Mass Media, Inc. v. Federal Communications Comm'n, 595 F.2d 621, 642 n. 57 (D.C.Cir.1978) (Robinson, J., dissenting in part) (statistical significance tells nothing of the importance, magnitude, or practical significance of a disparity) (citing H. Blalock, Social Statistics 163 (2d ed. 1972)), as the district court demonstrated by positing that if two additional black candidates passed the written examination the disparity would no longer be of statistical importance. See 44 Fed.Reg. 11996, 11999 (March 2, 1979) (approving of use of hypothetical alterations in results of challenged employment practice to determine whether disparity was too small to find an illegal disparate impact). 29 These factors, considered in light of the admonition that no minimum threshold of statistical significance mandates a finding of a Title VII violation, persuade us that the district court was justified in ruling there was an insufficient showing of a disparity between the rates at which black and white candidates passed the written examination.