Opinion ID: 801892
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 3

Heading: Availability of a Permanent Repository

Text: With these NEPA obligations in mind, we turn to the Commission’s conclusion that a permanent repository for SNF will be available “when necessary.” In so concluding, the Commission examined the historical difficulty—now measured in decades rather than years—in establishing a permanent facility. See, e.g., Waste Confidence Decision Update, 75 Fed. Reg. at 81,049. Though a number of commenters suggested that the social and political barriers to building a geologic repository are too great to conclude that a facility could be built in any reasonable timeframe, the Commission believes that the lessons learned from the Yucca Mountain program and the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future will ensure that, through “open and transparent” decisionmaking, a consensus would be reached. Id. Further, the Commission noted that the Nuclear Waste Policy Act mandates a repository program, demonstrating the continued commitment and obligation of the federal government to pursue one. The scientific and experiential knowledge of the past decades, the Commission explained, would enable the government to create a suitable repository by the time one is needed. Id.
Petitioners argue that the Commission’s conclusion regarding permanent storage violates NEPA in two ways: First, it fails to fully account for the significant societal and political barriers that may delay or prevent the opening of a repository. Second, the Commission’s conclusion that a permanent repository will be available “when necessary” fails to define the term “necessary” in any meaningful way and does not address the effects of a failure to establish a repository in time. Petitioners further contest the Commission’s claim that the WCD constitutes an EA for permanent disposal, let alone the 11 EIS they contend is required here. The Commission responds by contending that it “candidly acknowledged” the societal and political challenges, and crafted the WCD to account for those risks. Overcoming political obstacles is not the responsibility of the Commission, it contends, and the NRC’s conclusion that institutional obstacles will not prevent a repository from being built is entitled to substantial deference. The Commission contends that the selection of a precise date for Finding 2 is not required by NEPA or any other laws governing the NRC, and the Commission used the “when necessary” formulation as far back as 1977. See NRDC v. Nuclear Regulatory Comm’n, 582 F.2d 166, 170, 175 (2d Cir. 1978). As for examining the environmental effects of failing to establish a repository, the Commission contends that the WCD is an EA supporting the revision of 10 C.F.R. § 51.23(a). No EIS is necessary regarding permanent disposal because, the Commission argues, the WCD is not a major federal action, and conducting an EIS for this issue would be the sort of “abstract exercise” the Supreme Court declined to require in Baltimore Gas and Electric Company v. NRDC, 462 U.S. 87, 100 (1983). Further, the Commission’s existing “Table S-3” already considers the environmental effects of the nuclear fuel cycle generally and found no significant impacts. Therefore, the Commission believes, no EIS is required.
The Commission’s “when necessary” finding is already imperiled by our conclusion that the WCD is a major federal action. We hold that the WCD must be vacated as to its revision to Finding 2 because the WCD fails to properly analyze the environmental effects of its permanent disposal conclusion. 12 While we share petitioners’ considerable skepticism as to whether a permanent facility can be built given the societal and political barriers to selecting a site, we need not resolve whether the Commission adequately considered those barriers. Likewise, we need not decide whether, as the Commission contends, an agency’s interpretation of the political landscape surrounding its field of expertise merits deference. Instead, we hold the WCD is defective on far simpler grounds: As we have determined, the WCD is a major federal action because it is used to allow the licensing of nuclear plants. See supra Part II. Therefore, the WCD requires an EIS or, alternatively, an EA that concludes with a finding of no significant impact. The Commission did not supply a suitable FONSI here because it did not examine the environmental effects of failing to establish a repository. Even taking the Commission’s word that the WCD constitutes an EA for the permanent storage conclusion, see Waste Confidence Decision Update, 75 Fed. Reg. at 81,042, the EA is insufficient because a finding that “reasonable assurance exists that sufficient mined geologic repository capacity will be available when necessary,” id. at 81,041, does not describe a probability of failure so low as to dismiss the potential consequences of such a failure. Under NEPA, an agency must look at both the probabilities of potentially harmful events and the consequences if those events come to pass. See, e.g., Carolina Envtl. Study Grp. v. U.S., 510 F.2d 796, 799 (D.C. Cir. 1975). An agency may find no significant impact if the probability is so low as to be “remote and speculative,” or if the combination of probability and harm is sufficiently minimal. See, e.g., City of New York v. Dep’t of Transp., 715 F.2d 732, 738 (2d Cir. 1983) (“The concept of overall risk incorporates the significance of possible adverse consequences discounted by the improbability of their occurrence.”). Here, a “reasonable assurance” that permanent storage will be available is a far cry 13 from finding the likelihood of nonavailability to be “remote and speculative.” The Commission failed to examine the environmental consequences of failing to establish a repository when one is needed. The Commission argues that its “Table S-3” already accounts for the environmental effects of the nuclear fuel cycle and finds no significant impact. Not so. Table S-3, like the Commission itself, presumes the existence of a geologic repository. Therefore, it cannot explain the environmental effects of a failure to secure a permanent facility. The Commission also complains that conducting a full analysis regarding permanent storage would be an “abstract exercise.” Perhaps the Commission thinks so because it perceives the required analysis to be of the effects of the permanent repository itself. But we are focused on the effects of a failure to secure permanent storage. The Commission apparently has no longterm plan other than hoping for a geologic repository. If the government continues to fail in its quest to establish one, then SNF will seemingly be stored on site at nuclear plants on a permanent basis. The Commission can and must assess the potential environmental effects of such a failure.