Opinion ID: 2424209
Heading Depth: 1
Heading Rank: 28

Heading: The State's Two Experts [43]

Text: The State elicited the testimony of Dr. Bari Erlichson (Erlichson), Director of the Office of Education Data from the DOE and Dr. Eric Allen Hanushek (Hanushek), a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. Both witnesses opined there is an insufficient correlation between spending and achievement. The State's first expert, Erlichson, presented a series of scatter-graphs from which she drew the conclusion there is little or no correlation between the ratio of a district's spending to adequacy and the performance of its students on standardized tests for the 2009-2010 school year. [44] Interestingly, from these same scatter-graphs, the expert concluded there is a pattern demonstrating affluent districts do better on standardized tests in comparison to less affluent districts. Based on her experience in compiling education assessment data for the DOE, Erlichson prepared a series of scatter-graphs comparing various standardized test assessment data with spending to adequacy ratios for districts in particular socio-economic groupings for the 2009-2010 school year, only. Erlichson, 3 T 18:2-19:11. It should be noted, no data was yet available for FY 11, the year to be examined. Nor was any evidence offered concerning comparisons with prior years or trends. Consequently, the exact effects of the reductions for FY 11 are unknown. However, the remand specifically posed whether the current level of funding can provide a thorough and efficient education, and not did it in fact provide the same. To understand the conclusions Erlichson drew from the data presented, preliminarily, it is necessary to first explain the origin of the assessment data and then explain the composition of the scatter-graphs to illustrate this data. See D-46. The assessment data was gathered from the results of the standardized exams for NJ ASK 4 and 8, and HSPA, for mathematics and language arts, all administered in 2009-2010. Individual student data was aggregated to determine the percentage of students within each district who achieved proficiency on the exam for that grade in 2009-2010. [45] As aforementioned, there is no established State standard measuring whether a district is delivering or meeting the CCCS, and the available assessments currently used by the State are either the statewide benchmarks under No Child Left Behind or the yearly progress towards those benchmarks. Erlichson, 3 T 50:13-51:5. Each district was plotted on the scatter-graph's X and Y axis, according to the percentage of students who reached proficiency within the district and the district's spending to adequacy ratio. Erlichson, 3 T 18:2-19:11; see also D-46. On each scatter-graph, the horizontal, X-axis represented the percentage of students who reached proficiency within a district as compared to the statewide pass rate. The State pass rate, represented by a zero in the center of the X-axis, was an arbitrary point of focus chosen by the State, merely for purposes of convenience in comparing student achievement across the State. [46] The statewide pass rate, which re-sets each year the test is taken, is the total number of students statewide who demonstrated proficiency or better on a particular test for the particular grade divided by the number of students statewide who took the test. For example, a district which was plotted on the zero point of the X-axis had exactly 60% of its students pass the exam in that year, and thus was on-par with the State pass rate. See D-46. Specifically, for the 2009-2010 school year, the statewide pass rate for NJ ASK 4 on language arts was 60%, or, alternatively, 60% of the total students in New Jersey taking that test were able to pass. [47] The districts plotted to the right of the zero were districts performing better than the State pass rate and districts plotted to the left of zero were those performing worse than the State pass rate. The vertical, Y-axis on each scatter-graph depicted the ratio between a district's spending budget and its adequacy ratio. D-46. The zero in center of the Y-axis represented the point where spending and adequacy were equivalent. Ibid. As such, those districts plotted below the zero point were spending below their adequacy budget, and districts plotted above the zero point were spending above their adequacy budget. Ibid. Finally, the last variable segregated the scatter-graph data to show districts either by their DFG rating or by the percentage of at-risk students within those districts. [48] Ibid. From these scatter-graphs, the witness discerned two salient conclusions, although curiously contradictory. First, there was no demonstrated pattern between spending to adequacy and performance. Erlichson, 3 T 93:5-13. The State conceded its purpose in eliciting this testimony via the graphs was to illustrate at some point there is no causative connection between funding and outcome. Id. at 67:9-10. For the reasons heretofore set forth this conclusion has no place in this remand. Second, the series of graphs demonstrated a sobering pattern reflecting districts with a higher percentage of poverty, or those in the less affluent DFG categories, perform at a lower level of proficiency on the standardized tests than districts with less poverty or in higher DFG categories. Id. at 88:9-17. Even without quantification of the districts which appeared on either side of the State pass rate, a pattern was clearly discernable: more affluent districts performed better and more readily passed State requirements. Given the expert's conclusion spending over and above adequacy may not necessarily correlate with the level of performance, it was impossible for Erlichson not to agree with the broad picture overall student performance was better in the wealthier districts. Doctor Eric Allan Hanushek (Hanushek), offered by the State as its expert, is a nationally recognized, although apparently a controversial figure in educational finance policy. Currently a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, with a glittering curriculum vitae and other various recognitions and appointments in the field of the economics of educational financing, his entire career has been dedicated to determining the factors, including educational spending, which affect student achievement. He has authored numerous books and articles concerning the dynamics affecting student performance. Given his extensive background and recognized achievements in his field, Hanushek was qualified as an expert in educational finance policy. His provocative theory, which shall be detailed hereinafter, is worthy of serious review. Hanushek opined the current level of funding, using the SFRA formula, can provide a thorough and efficient education to the school children of New Jersey. Hanushek, 5 T 20:6-9. To reach this conclusion, he, essentially, utilized two foundational premises. First, there is an insufficient correlation between spending and student performance. Id. at 33:9-13. Having reviewed national standardized test and educational expenditure data, Hanushek opined the data demonstrated spending on education increased substantially over the last several decades, D-80, however, student performance had not substantially improved as one would expect with this rise in levels of financial input. Hanushek, 5 T 28:22-29:25; D-82. In other words, on a national level, increases in aid have not resulted in substantially increased student achievement, and the same pattern was also evident in New Jersey. Id. at 21:1-5. Hanushek compared per pupil spending in New Jersey to the national per pupil spending average. See D-83. From 1990 to 2000 spending was relatively consistent in New Jersey between $12,581 per pupil to $12,927, and it was greater than the national averages of $7,741 per pupil in 1990 and $8,644 in 2000. Ibid. From 2000 to 2008, New Jersey experienced an increase of 36%, adjusted for inflation, in student expenditures, as compared to the 25% increase in the national average. Hanushek, 5 T 29:2-9; see also D-84-86. Student expenditures per pupil rose to $17,620, as compared to $10,297 nationally. See D-83. In 2008, New Jersey was one of, if not the, the highest per pupil spending of all other states. [49] Hanushek, 5 T 29:9-11. Although, student performance for the years when New Jersey increased its spending was better than the national average, the difference in achievement was minimal considering the spending increases New Jersey implemented. Hanushek, 5 T 32:1-10; see also D-84-86. Second, Hanushek opined it is far more important how money is spent than how much is spent. Hanushek, 5 T 28:7-11. Specifically, rather than focusing on how much more money to infuse into the system, significantly better performance results could be achieved by removing the bottom five to eight percent of ineffective teachers and modestly increasing class sizes. He urged the bulk of studies performed on class sizes suggest reductions of one to two students have no noticeable effect on student achievement. [50] As such, he concluded the effectiveness of teachers more significantly impacts performance than any changes in class size. Id. at 35:3-12. Accordingly, he opined, each class may be increased by one to two students, and even up to five students, without negatively affecting student performance. Id. at 54:1-4. Although the Master was impressed with Hanushek's thoughtful, if thought provoking analysis, it was problematic for this hearing for several reasons. First, the focus of Hanushek's testimony was predominantly national, rather than focusing upon New Jersey. Second, there was a dearth of any meaningful review of the obstacles; e.g. collective bargaining agreements, union contracts, tenure and statutory provisions, may have on removal of the five to eight percent of our least capable teachers. Hanushek acknowledged he had not specifically studied any such agreements in New Jersey or the applicable statutory provisions. Furthermore, his testimony failed to give consideration to the possible costs associated with identifying and removing the five to eight percent of our least capable teachers. [51] In support of Hanushek's proposition for removal of underperforming teachers, the State cited to N.J.S.A. 18A:28-5, providing tenured teachers may be removed for inefficiency, and N.J.S.A. 18A:6-11, requiring written notice for inefficiency removal and 90 days to correct or overcome the inefficiency. Dfs.' Post-Trial Br. ¶ 300. While the statutes appear to allow removal tenured teachers, the testimony from several superintendents appeared to suggest the removal process is more onerous and costly than a literal reading of the statutes might suggest. See Whitaker, 10 T 50:12-51:2 (difficult to remove teachers); Tardalo, 12 T 43:6-12 (noting hundreds of thousands of dollars in legal fees to remove tenured teacher). Finally, Hanushek's testimony did not account for the possibility, if not the reality, there already have been significant increases in class size since the implementation of SFRA. As discussed above, the district witnesses testified to increases in class size having taken place already. Furthermore, New Jersey, by statute, mandates certain levels for class sizes in high poverty districts, where forty percent or more of the students are at-risk. The statute mandates, with some minor exception, grades K-3 cannot exceed 21 students, grades 4-5 cannot exceed 23 students, and grades 6-12 cannot exceed 24 students. See P-2; see also N.J.A.C. 6A:13-3.1. As such, the proposition urged by Hanushek cannot, by law, be implemented in high poverty districts, of which there are 114 in New Jersey. Hanushek conceded he had not studied New Jersey class size data over any time period which would permit conclusions specific to New Jersey school children. Moreover, Hanushek conceded the greater the funding reductions, leading to even greater increases in class size, would cause greater hesitancy in concluding there would be no impact on performance. Hanushek, 5 T 79:2-18. If class sizes had already been increased, as they apparently have, then the result of further enlargements in class size to accommodate the budget cuts, as suggested by Hanushek, could lead to a compounded effect which would further deleteriously affect student performance. Lastly, the data reviewed by Hanushek pre-dated, at least in large part, SFRA funding or reductions thereto. Accordingly, while the Master found Hanushek's testimony compelling, and worthy of further review by educators, legislators, and government officials, its focus was not New Jersey. Certainly general propositions may be made across state lines; however, for this hearing the focus necessarily need be on New Jersey. Without having the opportunity to review prior increases in class sizes, current labor contracts, typical cost of removal of our least capable teachers or the implications of tenure, Hanushek's conclusions are better left examined on another day, possibly in another forum. The lack of correlation between spending and performance may also be an intriguing theory worthy of legislative review, however, the same has no probative force in assisting the State in meeting its burden before this court. The State's reliance on this position is ironic as it is in direct contravention of the underlying principle of SFRA: the amount of aid necessary to deliver a thorough and efficient education as measured by the CCCS can be quantified and costed out. Abbott XX, supra, 199 N.J. at 195 [971 A. 2d 989] (By way of [`costing out'], the level of resources needed for students to perform to specified standards, in New Jersey the CCCS, is identified.). The remand requires a determination whether with the reductions of State aid, through the SFRA formula, districts can provide a thorough and efficient education to their students. Despite the court's efforts to confine the hearing within the remand's parameters, the State's presentation appeared more oriented to the Supreme Court. Accordingly, one of the central tenets of the State's experts' testimony, lack of correlation between spending and performance, can have little or no bearing on this hearing. The sole purpose of this hearing was to determine whether the reductions in State aid, resulting in less than full funding of SFRA, can pass constitutional muster. The limited nature of the remand was to ascertain whether there was sufficient latitude in the SFRA formula such that the reduced funding would not affect the delivery of a thorough and efficient education. The State was either unwilling or unable to meet its burden, at least as it concerned Erlichson and Hanushek.