vtt/episode_031_small.vtt

WEBVTT

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 The following is a conversation with George Hotz.

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 He's the founder of Comma AI,

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 a machine learning based vehicle automation company.

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 He is most certainly an outspoken personality

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 in the field of AI and technology in general.

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 He first gained recognition for being the first person

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 to carry on lock and iPhone.

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 And since then, he's done quite a few interesting things

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 at the intersection of hardware and software.

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 This is the artificial intelligence podcast.

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 If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube,

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 give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon,

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 or simply connect with me on Twitter.

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 Alex Friedman, spelled F R I D M A N.

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 And I'd like to give a special thank you to Jennifer

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 from Canada for her support of the podcast on Patreon.

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 Merci beaucoup, Jennifer.

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 She's been a friend and an engineering colleague

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 for many years since I was in grad school.

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 Your support means a lot and inspires me

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 to keep this series going.

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 And now here's my conversation with George Hotz.

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 Do you think we're living in a simulation?

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 Yes, but it may be unfalsifiable.

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 What do you mean by unfalsifiable?

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 So if the simulation is designed in such a way

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 that they did like a formal proof

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 to show that no information can get in and out.

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 And if their hardware is designed for the anything

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 in the simulation to always keep the hardware in spec,

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 it may be impossible to prove

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 whether we're in a simulation or not.

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 So they've designed it such that it's a closed system,

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 you can't get outside the system.

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 Well, maybe it's one of three worlds.

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 We're either in a simulation which can be exploited,

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 we're in a simulation which not only can't be exploited,

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 but like the same thing's true about VMs.

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 A really well designed VM,

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 you can't even detect if you're in a VM or not.

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 That's brilliant.

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 So we're, yeah, so the simulation is running

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 on a virtual machine.

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 But now in reality, all VMs have ways to detect.

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 That's the point.

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 I mean, is it, you've done quite a bit of hacking yourself.

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 So you should know that really any complicated system

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 will have ways in and out.

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 So this isn't necessarily true going forward.

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 I spent my time away from comma,

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 I learned a cock, it's a dependently typed,

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 like it's a language for writing math proofs.

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 And if you write code that compiles in a language like that,

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 it is correct by definition.

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 The types check it's correctance.

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 So it's possible that the simulation

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 is written in a language like this, in which case, yeah.

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 Yeah, but that can't be sufficiently expressive

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 of language like that.

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 Oh, it can.

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 It can be?

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 Oh, yeah.

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 Okay, well, so, all right, so.

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 The simulation doesn't have to be tearing complete

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 if it has a scheduled end date.

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 Looks like it does actually with entropy.

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 I mean, I don't think that a simulation

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 that results in something as complicated as the universe

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 would have a formal proof of correctness, right?

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 It's possible, of course.

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 We have no idea how good their tooling is.

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 And we have no idea how complicated

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 the universe computer really is.

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 It may be quite simple.

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 It's just very large, right?

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 It's very, it's definitely very large.

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 But the fundamental rules might be super simple.

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 Yeah, Conway's gonna like kinda stop.

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 Right, so if you could hack,

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 so imagine the simulation that is hackable,

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 if you could hack it,

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 what would you change about the universe?

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 Like how would you approach hacking a simulation?

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 The reason I gave that talk?

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 By the way, I'm not familiar with the talk you gave.

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 I just read that you talked about escaping the simulation

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 or something like that.

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 So maybe you can tell me a little bit

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 about the theme and the message there too.

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 It wasn't a very practical talk

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 about how to actually escape a simulation.

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 It was more about a way of restructuring

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 an us versus them narrative.

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 If we continue on the path we're going with technology,

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 I think we're in big trouble,

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 like as a species and not just as a species,

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 but even as me as an individual member of the species.

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 So if we could change rhetoric to be more like,

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 to think upwards,

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 like to think about that we're in a simulation

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 and how we could get out,

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 already we'd be on the right path.

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 What you actually do once you do that,

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 well, I assume I would have acquired way more intelligence

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 in the process of doing that, so I'll just ask that.

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 So the thinking upwards,

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 what kind of ideas,

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 what kind of breakthrough ideas do you think thinking

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 in that way could inspire?

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 And why did you say upwards?

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 Upwards.

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 Into space?

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 Are you thinking sort of exploration in all forms?

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 The space narrative that held for the modernist generation

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 doesn't hold as well for the postmodern generation.

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 What's the space narrative?

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 Are we talking about the same space?

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 The three dimensional space?

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 No, no, space, like going up space,

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 like building like Elon Musk,

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 like we're going to build rockets,

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 we're going to go to Mars,

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 we're going to colonize the universe.

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 And the narrative you're referring,

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 I was born in the Soviet Union,

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 you're referring to the race to space?

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 The race to space, yeah.

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 Yes, explore, okay.

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 That was a great modernist narrative.

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 Yeah.

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 It doesn't seem to hold the same weight in today's culture.

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 I'm hoping for good postmodern narratives that replace it.

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 So let's think, so you work a lot with AI.

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 So AI is one formulation of that narrative.

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 There could be also,

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 I don't know how much you do in VR and AR.

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 Yeah.

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 That's another, I know less about it,

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 but every time I play with it and our research,

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 it's fascinating, that virtual world.

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 Are you interested in the virtual world?

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 I would like to move to virtual reality.

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 In terms of your work?

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 No, I would like to physically move there.

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 The apartment I can rent in the cloud

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 is way better than the apartment I can rent in the real world.

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 Well, it's all relative, isn't it?

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 Because others will have very nice apartments too,

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 so you'll be inferior in the virtual world as well.

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 But that's not how I view the world, right?

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 I don't view the world.

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 I mean, that's a very like, almost zero summish way

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 to view the world.

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 Say like, my great apartment isn't great

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 because my neighbor has one too.

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 No, my great apartment is great

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 because like, look at this dishwasher, man.

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 You just touch the dish and it's washed, right?

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 And that is great in and of itself

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 if I had the only apartment

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 or if everybody had the apartment.

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 I don't care.

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 So you have fundamental gratitude.

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 The world first learned of Geohot, George Hots

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 in August 2007, maybe before then,

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 but certainly in August 2007

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 when you were the first person to unlock,

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 carry on lock an iPhone.

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 How did you get into hacking?

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 What was the first system you discovered

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 vulnerabilities for and broke into?

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 So that was really kind of the first thing.

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 I had a book in 2006 called Gray Hat Hacking.

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 And I guess I realized that

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 if you acquired these sort of powers

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 you could control the world.

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 But I didn't really know that much

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 about computers back then.

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 I started with electronics.

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 The first iPhone hack was physical.

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 Cardware.

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 You had to open it up and pull an address line high.

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 And it was because I didn't really know

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 about software exploitation.

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 I learned that all in the next few years

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 and I got very good at it.

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 But back then I knew about like

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 how memory chips are connected to processors and stuff.

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 But you knew about software and programming.

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 You didn't know.

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 Oh really, so your view of the world

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 and computers was physical, was hardware.

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 Actually, if you read the code that I released with that

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 in August 2007, it's atrocious.

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 What language was it?

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 C.

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 C, nice.

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 And in a broken sort of state machine, ask C.

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 I didn't know how to program.

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 Yeah.

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 So how did you learn to program?

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 What was your journey?

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 I mean, we'll talk about it.

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 You've live streamed some of your programming.

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 This chaotic, beautiful mess.

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 How did you arrive at that?

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 Years and years of practice.

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 I interned at Google after,

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 the summer after the iPhone unlock.

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 And I did a contract for them

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 where I built a hardware for Street View

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 and I wrote a software library to interact with it.

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 And it was terrible code.

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 And for the first time I got feedback

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 from people who I respected saying,

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 no, like, don't write code like this.

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 Now, of course, just getting that feedback is not enough.

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 The way that I really got good was,

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 I wanted to write this thing that could emulate

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 and then visualize like arm binaries

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 because I wanted to hack the iPhone better.

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 And I didn't like that I couldn't see what the,

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 I couldn't single step through the processor

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 because I had no debugger on there,

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 especially for the low level things like the boot ROM

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 and the boot loader.

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 So I tried to build this tool to do it.

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 And I built the tool once and it was terrible.

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 I built the tool second times, it was terrible.

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 I built the tool third time.

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 This by the time I was at Facebook, it was kind of okay.

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 And then I built the tool fourth time

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 when I was a Google intern again in 2014.

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 And that was the first time I was like,

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 this is finally usable.

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 How do you pronounce this, Kira?

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 Kira, yeah.

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 So it's essentially the most efficient way

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 to visualize the change of state of the computer

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 as the program is running.

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 That's what you mean by debugger.

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 Yeah, it's a timeless debugger.

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 So you can rewind just as easily as going forward.

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 Think about, if you're using GDB,

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 you have to put a watch on a variable.

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 If you want to see if that variable changes.

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 In Kira, you can just click on that variable.

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 And then it shows every single time

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 when that variable was changed or accessed.

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 Think about it like get for your computer's, the run lock.

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 So there's like a deep log of the state of the computer

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 as the program runs and you can rewind.

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 Why isn't that, maybe it is, maybe you can educate me.

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 Why isn't that kind of debugging used more often?

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 Because the tooling's bad.

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 Well, two things.

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 One, if you're trying to debug Chrome,

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 Chrome is a 200 megabyte binary

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 that runs slowly on desktops.

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 So that's gonna be really hard to use for that.

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 But it's really good to use for like CTFs

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 and for boot ROMs and for small parts of code.

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 So it's hard if you're trying to debug like massive systems.

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 What's a CTF and what's a boot ROM?

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 A boot ROM is the first code that executes

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 the minute you give power to your iPhone.

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 Okay.

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 And CTF were these competitions that I played.

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 Capture the flag.

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 Capture the flag.

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 I was gonna ask you about that.

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 What are those, those look at,

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 I watched a couple of videos on YouTube.

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 Those look fascinating.

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 What have you learned about maybe at the high level

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 in the vulnerability of systems from these competitions?

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 I feel like in the heyday of CTFs,

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 you had all of the best security people in the world

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 challenging each other and coming up

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 with new toy exploitable things over here.

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 And then everybody, okay, who can break it?

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 And when you break it, you get like,

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 there's like a file in the server called flag.

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 And then there's a program running,

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 listening on a socket that's vulnerable.

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 So you write an exploit, you get a shell,

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 and then you cat flag, and then you type the flag

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 into like a web based scoreboard and you get points.

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 So the goal is essentially to find an exploit in the system

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 that allows you to run shell,

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 to run arbitrary code on that system.

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 That's one of the categories.

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 That's like the Poneable category.

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 Poneable?

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 Yeah, Poneable.

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 It's like, you know, you Pone the program.

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 It's a program.

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 Oh, yeah.

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 You know, first of all, I apologize, I'm gonna say,

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 it's because I'm Russian,

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 but maybe you can help educate me.

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 Some video game like misspelled

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 to own way back in the day.

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 Yeah, and it's just,

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 I wonder if there's a definition

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 and I'll have to go to Urban Dictionary for it.

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 Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what it says.

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 Okay, so what was the heyday of CTL, by the way,

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 but was it, what decade are we talking about?

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 I think like, I mean, maybe I'm biased

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 because it's the era that I played,

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 but like 2011 to 2015,

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 because the modern CTF scene

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 is similar to the modern competitive programming scene.

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 You have people who like do drills.

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 You have people who practice.

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 And then once you've done that,

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 you've turned it less into a game of generic computer skill

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 and more into a game of, okay, you memorize,

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 you drill on these five categories.

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 And then before that, it wasn't,

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 it didn't have like as much attention as it had.

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 I don't know, they were like,

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 I won $30,000 once in Korea

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 for one of these competitions.

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 Holy crap.

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 Yeah, they were, they were, that was...

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 So that means, I mean, money is money,

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 but that means there was probably good people there.

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 Exactly, yeah.

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 Are the challenges human constructed

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 or are they grounded in some real flaws in real systems?

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 Usually they're human constructed,

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 but they're usually inspired by real flaws.

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 What kind of systems are imagined

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 is really focused on mobile?

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 Like what has vulnerabilities these days?

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 Is it primarily mobile systems like Android?

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 Oh, everything does.

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 Yeah, of course.

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 The price has kind of gone up

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 because less and less people can find them.

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 And what's happened in security is now,

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 if you want to like jailbreak an iPhone,

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 you don't need one exploit anymore, you need nine.

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 Nine change together?

13:39.160 --> 13:40.000
 What would you mean?

13:40.000 --> 13:40.840
 Yeah, wow.

13:40.840 --> 13:44.800
 Okay, so it's really, what's the benefit?

13:44.800 --> 13:48.240
 Speaking higher level philosophically about hacking.

13:48.240 --> 13:50.400
 I mean, it sounds from everything I've seen about you,

13:50.400 --> 13:55.040
 you just love the challenge and you don't want to do anything.

13:55.040 --> 13:58.120
 You don't want to bring that exploit out into the world

13:58.120 --> 14:01.680
 and do any actual, let it run wild.

14:01.680 --> 14:02.760
 You just want to solve it

14:02.760 --> 14:05.400
 and then you go on to the next thing.

14:05.400 --> 14:08.440
 Oh yeah, I mean, doing criminal stuff's not really worth it.

14:08.440 --> 14:10.520
 And I'll actually use the same argument

14:10.520 --> 14:15.440
 for why I don't do defense for why I don't do crime.

14:15.440 --> 14:16.840
 If you want to defend a system,

14:16.840 --> 14:19.280
 say the system has 10 holes, right?

14:19.280 --> 14:22.240
 If you find nine of those holes as a defender,

14:22.240 --> 14:24.240
 you still lose because the attacker gets in

14:24.240 --> 14:25.520
 through the last one.

14:25.520 --> 14:26.360
 If you're an attacker,

14:26.360 --> 14:28.720
 you only have to find one out of the 10.

14:28.720 --> 14:30.760
 But if you're a criminal,

14:30.760 --> 14:34.800
 if you log on with a VPN nine out of the 10 times,

14:34.800 --> 14:37.760
 but one time you forget, you're done.

14:37.760 --> 14:39.400
 Because you're caught, okay.

14:39.400 --> 14:41.160
 Because you only have to mess up once

14:41.160 --> 14:42.920
 to be caught as a criminal.

14:42.920 --> 14:44.320
 That's why I'm not a criminal.

14:45.920 --> 14:47.080
 But okay, let me,

14:47.080 --> 14:49.520
 cause I was having a discussion with somebody

14:49.520 --> 14:52.440
 just at a high level about nuclear weapons,

14:52.440 --> 14:56.240
 actually why we're having blown ourselves up yet.

14:56.240 --> 14:59.840
 And my feeling is all the smart people in the world,

14:59.840 --> 15:04.120
 if you look at the distribution of smart people,

15:04.120 --> 15:06.760
 smart people are generally good.

15:06.760 --> 15:07.680
 And then the Southern person,

15:07.680 --> 15:09.480
 I was talking to Sean Carroll, the physicist,

15:09.480 --> 15:11.400
 and he was saying no good and bad people

15:11.400 --> 15:14.080
 are evenly distributed amongst everybody.

15:14.080 --> 15:18.080
 My sense was good hackers are in general good people

15:18.080 --> 15:20.400
 and they don't want to mess with the world.

15:20.400 --> 15:21.920
 What's your sense?

15:21.920 --> 15:24.720
 I'm not even sure about that.

15:25.920 --> 15:30.520
 Like, I have a nice life.

15:30.520 --> 15:32.120
 Crime wouldn't get me anything.

15:34.320 --> 15:36.520
 But if you're good and you have these skills,

15:36.520 --> 15:38.720
 you probably have a nice life too, right?

15:38.720 --> 15:40.160
 Right, you can use the father things.

15:40.160 --> 15:41.120
 But is there an ethical,

15:41.120 --> 15:44.200
 is there a little voice in your head that says,

15:46.120 --> 15:49.040
 well, yeah, if you could hack something

15:49.040 --> 15:50.720
 to where you could hurt people

15:52.840 --> 15:54.960
 and you could earn a lot of money doing it though,

15:54.960 --> 15:56.320
 not hurt physically perhaps,

15:56.320 --> 15:59.000
 but disrupt their life in some kind of way.

16:00.200 --> 16:02.360
 Isn't there a little voice that says,

16:03.360 --> 16:04.560
 Well, two things.

16:04.560 --> 16:06.800
 One, I don't really care about money.

16:06.800 --> 16:08.680
 So like the money wouldn't be an incentive.

16:08.680 --> 16:10.640
 The thrill might be an incentive.

16:10.640 --> 16:14.440
 But when I was 19, I read crime and punishment.

16:14.440 --> 16:16.120
 That was another great one

16:16.120 --> 16:18.440
 that talked me out of ever really doing crime.

16:19.400 --> 16:21.720
 Cause it's like, that's gonna be me.

16:21.720 --> 16:25.040
 I'd get away with it, but it would just run through my head.

16:25.040 --> 16:26.480
 Even if I got away with it, you know?

16:26.480 --> 16:27.640
 And then you do crime for long enough,

16:27.640 --> 16:28.960
 you'll never get away with it.

16:28.960 --> 16:30.360
 That's right, in the end.

16:30.360 --> 16:32.680
 That's a good reason to be good.

16:32.680 --> 16:34.880
 I wouldn't say I'm good, I would just say I'm not bad.

16:34.880 --> 16:38.080
 You're a talented programmer and a hacker

16:38.080 --> 16:40.920
 in a good positive sense of the word.

16:40.920 --> 16:43.360
 You've played around, found vulnerabilities

16:43.360 --> 16:44.720
 in various systems.

16:44.720 --> 16:46.120
 What have you learned broadly

16:46.120 --> 16:49.480
 about the design of systems and so on

16:49.480 --> 16:51.520
 from that whole process?

16:53.280 --> 16:58.280
 You learn to not take things

16:59.280 --> 17:02.160
 for what people say they are,

17:02.160 --> 17:05.320
 but you look at things for what they actually are.

17:07.040 --> 17:07.880
 Yeah.

17:07.880 --> 17:10.080
 I understand that's what you tell me it is,

17:10.080 --> 17:11.320
 but what does it do?

17:12.960 --> 17:14.600
 And you have nice visualization tools

17:14.600 --> 17:16.720
 to really know what it's really doing.

17:16.720 --> 17:20.080
 Oh, I wish I'm a better programmer now than I was in 2014.

17:20.080 --> 17:21.880
 I said, Kira, that was the first tool

17:21.880 --> 17:23.440
 that I wrote that was usable.

17:23.440 --> 17:25.360
 I wouldn't say the code was great.

17:25.360 --> 17:27.360
 I still wouldn't say my code is great.

17:28.840 --> 17:30.760
 So how was your evolution as a programmer?

17:30.760 --> 17:32.280
 Except practice.

17:32.280 --> 17:33.880
 You started with C,

17:33.880 --> 17:35.560
 what point did you pick up Python?

17:35.560 --> 17:37.080
 Because you're pretty big in Python now.

17:37.080 --> 17:39.960
 Now, yeah, in college,

17:39.960 --> 17:42.520
 I went to Carnegie Mellon when I was 22.

17:42.520 --> 17:44.200
 I went back, I'm like,

17:44.200 --> 17:46.640
 I'm gonna take all your hardest CS courses

17:46.640 --> 17:47.640
 and we'll see how I do, right?

17:47.640 --> 17:48.560
 Like, did I miss anything

17:48.560 --> 17:51.520
 by not having a real undergraduate education?

17:51.520 --> 17:54.240
 Took operating systems, compilers, AI,

17:54.240 --> 17:56.880
 and they're like a freshman Weeder math course.

17:56.880 --> 18:01.880
 And some of those classes you mentioned,

18:03.320 --> 18:04.240
 pretty tough, actually.

18:04.240 --> 18:05.640
 They're great.

18:05.640 --> 18:07.640
 At least when the 2012,

18:07.640 --> 18:10.240
 circa 2012 operating systems and compilers

18:11.240 --> 18:14.440
 were two of the best classes I've ever taken in my life.

18:14.440 --> 18:15.640
 Because you write an operating system

18:15.640 --> 18:16.840
 and you write a compiler.

18:18.080 --> 18:19.760
 I wrote my operating system in C

18:19.760 --> 18:21.400
 and I wrote my compiler in Haskell,

18:21.400 --> 18:26.400
 but somehow I picked up Python that semester as well.

18:26.400 --> 18:28.080
 I started using it for the CTFs, actually.

18:28.080 --> 18:30.320
 That's when I really started to get into CTFs

18:30.320 --> 18:33.360
 and CTFs, you're all to race against the clock.

18:33.360 --> 18:35.120
 So I can't write things and see.

18:35.120 --> 18:36.240
 Oh, there's a clock component.

18:36.240 --> 18:37.840
 So you really want to use the programming language

18:37.840 --> 18:38.960
 just so you can be fastest.

18:38.960 --> 18:40.080
 48 hours.

18:40.080 --> 18:41.440
 Pwn as many of these challenges as you can.

18:41.440 --> 18:42.280
 Pwn.

18:42.280 --> 18:43.120
 Yeah.

18:43.120 --> 18:43.960
 You got like 100 points of challenge,

18:43.960 --> 18:45.360
 whatever team gets the most.

18:46.360 --> 18:50.240
 You were both at Facebook and Google for a brief stint.

18:50.240 --> 18:51.080
 Yeah.

18:51.080 --> 18:54.920
 With Project Zero, actually, at Google for five months

18:54.920 --> 18:56.960
 where you develop Kira.

18:56.960 --> 18:59.280
 What was Project Zero about in general?

19:01.760 --> 19:05.160
 Just curious about the security efforts in these companies.

19:05.160 --> 19:08.840
 Well, Project Zero started the same time I went there.

19:08.840 --> 19:10.080
 What year is it there?

19:11.080 --> 19:12.320
 2015.

19:12.320 --> 19:13.160
 2015.

19:13.160 --> 19:15.040
 So that was right at the beginning of Project Zero.

19:15.040 --> 19:16.200
 It's small.

19:16.200 --> 19:18.840
 It's Google's offensive security team.

19:18.840 --> 19:23.840
 I'll try to give the best public facing explanation

19:25.680 --> 19:26.520
 that I can.

19:26.520 --> 19:30.960
 So the idea is basically,

19:30.960 --> 19:33.240
 these vulnerabilities exist in the world.

19:33.240 --> 19:35.240
 Nation states have them.

19:35.240 --> 19:37.440
 Some high powered bad actors have them.

19:39.840 --> 19:44.200
 Sometimes people will find these vulnerabilities

19:44.200 --> 19:47.960
 and submit them in bug bounties to the companies.

19:47.960 --> 19:49.440
 But a lot of the companies don't only care.

19:49.440 --> 19:50.520
 They don't even fix the bug.

19:50.520 --> 19:53.760
 It doesn't hurt for there to be a vulnerability.

19:53.760 --> 19:55.880
 So Project Zero is like, we're going to do it different.

19:55.880 --> 19:57.840
 We're going to announce a vulnerability

19:57.840 --> 19:59.640
 and we're going to give them 90 days to fix it.

19:59.640 --> 20:00.800
 And then whether they fix it or not,

20:00.800 --> 20:03.200
 we're going to drop the Zero Day.

20:03.200 --> 20:04.080
 Oh, wow.

20:04.080 --> 20:05.240
 We're going to drop the weapon on the textbook.

20:05.240 --> 20:06.080
 That's so cool.

20:06.080 --> 20:07.480
 That is so cool.

20:07.480 --> 20:09.200
 I love that deadlines.

20:09.200 --> 20:10.040
 Oh, that's so cool.

20:10.040 --> 20:10.880
 Give them real deadlines.

20:10.880 --> 20:12.320
 Yeah.

20:12.320 --> 20:15.800
 And I think it's done a lot for moving the industry forward.

20:15.800 --> 20:20.360
 I watched your coding sessions on the streamed online.

20:20.360 --> 20:25.280
 You code things up, the basic projects, usually from scratch.

20:25.280 --> 20:28.200
 I would say, sort of as a programmer myself,

20:28.200 --> 20:30.360
 just watching you, that you type really fast

20:30.360 --> 20:34.440
 and your brain works in both brilliant and chaotic ways.

20:34.440 --> 20:35.800
 I don't know if that's always true,

20:35.800 --> 20:37.600
 but certainly for the live streams.

20:37.600 --> 20:41.320
 So it's interesting to me because I'm much slower

20:41.320 --> 20:43.520
 and systematic and careful.

20:43.520 --> 20:48.040
 And you just move probably in order of magnitude faster.

20:48.040 --> 20:51.800
 So I'm curious, is there a method to your madness?

20:51.800 --> 20:53.040
 Or is it just who you are?

20:53.040 --> 20:54.720
 There's pros and cons.

20:54.720 --> 20:58.080
 There's pros and cons to my programming style.

20:58.080 --> 21:00.360
 And I'm aware of them.

21:00.360 --> 21:04.480
 If you ask me to get something up and working quickly

21:04.480 --> 21:06.800
 with an API that's kind of undocumented,

21:06.800 --> 21:08.880
 I will do this super fast because I will throw things

21:08.880 --> 21:10.200
 at it until it works.

21:10.200 --> 21:14.720
 If you ask me to take a vector and rotate it 90 degrees

21:14.720 --> 21:19.320
 and then flip it over the X, Y plane,

21:19.320 --> 21:22.280
 I'll spam program for two hours and won't get it.

21:22.280 --> 21:23.480
 Oh, because it's something that you

21:23.480 --> 21:26.240
 could do with a sheet of paper or think through design

21:26.240 --> 21:30.400
 and then just you really just throw stuff at the wall

21:30.400 --> 21:34.600
 and you get so good at it that it usually works.

21:34.600 --> 21:36.920
 I should become better at the other kind as well.

21:36.920 --> 21:39.440
 Sometimes I will do things methodically.

21:39.440 --> 21:41.200
 It's nowhere near as entertaining on the Twitch streams.

21:41.200 --> 21:43.520
 I do exaggerate it a bit on the Twitch streams as well.

21:43.520 --> 21:45.480
 The Twitch streams, I mean, what do you want to see a game

21:45.480 --> 21:46.840
 or you want to see actions permit, right?

21:46.840 --> 21:48.200
 I'll show you APM for programming too.

21:48.200 --> 21:50.280
 Yeah, I'd recommend people go to it.

21:50.280 --> 21:53.800
 I think I watched probably several hours that you put,

21:53.800 --> 21:57.480
 like I've actually left you programming in the background

21:57.480 --> 22:00.400
 while I was programming because you made me,

22:00.400 --> 22:03.120
 it was like watching a really good gamer.

22:03.120 --> 22:06.240
 It's like energizes you because you're like moving so fast

22:06.240 --> 22:08.840
 and so it's awesome, it's inspiring.

22:08.840 --> 22:11.200
 It made me jealous that like,

22:12.280 --> 22:14.280
 because my own programming is inadequate

22:14.280 --> 22:16.960
 in terms of speed, so I was like.

22:16.960 --> 22:20.520
 So I'm twice as frantic on the live streams

22:20.520 --> 22:22.680
 as I am when I code without, oh.

22:22.680 --> 22:23.720
 It's super entertaining.

22:23.720 --> 22:26.400
 So I wasn't even paying attention to what you were coding,

22:26.400 --> 22:29.760
 which is great, it's just watching you switch windows

22:29.760 --> 22:31.400
 and Vim, I guess is the most way.

22:31.400 --> 22:33.000
 Yeah, does Vim on screen?

22:33.000 --> 22:35.640
 I've developed a workload Facebook and stuck with it.

22:35.640 --> 22:37.320
 How do you learn new programming tools,

22:37.320 --> 22:39.440
 ideas, techniques these days?

22:39.440 --> 22:42.080
 What's your like methodology for learning new things?

22:42.080 --> 22:45.920
 So I wrote for comma,

22:47.200 --> 22:49.280
 the distributed file systems out in the world

22:49.280 --> 22:50.720
 are extremely complex.

22:50.720 --> 22:55.280
 Like if you want to install something like like like Ceph,

22:55.280 --> 22:58.760
 Ceph is I think the like open infrastructure

22:58.760 --> 23:03.040
 distributed file system or there's like newer ones

23:03.040 --> 23:05.880
 like seaweed FS, but these are all like 10,000

23:05.880 --> 23:06.880
 plus line projects.

23:06.880 --> 23:09.520
 I think some of them are even 100,000 line

23:09.520 --> 23:11.120
 and just configuring them as a nightmare.

23:11.120 --> 23:16.120
 So I wrote, I wrote one, it's 200 lines

23:16.440 --> 23:18.880
 and it uses like engine X of the line servers

23:18.880 --> 23:21.600
 and has this little master server that I wrote and go.

23:21.600 --> 23:24.840
 And the way I go, this, if I would say

23:24.840 --> 23:27.240
 that I'm proud per line of any code I wrote,

23:27.240 --> 23:29.160
 maybe there's some exploits that I think are beautiful

23:29.160 --> 23:31.320
 and then this, this is 200 lines

23:31.320 --> 23:33.720
 and just the way that I thought about it,

23:33.720 --> 23:35.560
 I think was very good and the reason it's very good

23:35.560 --> 23:37.640
 is because that was the fourth version of it that I wrote

23:37.640 --> 23:39.320
 and I had three versions that I threw away.

23:39.320 --> 23:41.000
 You mentioned, did you say go?

23:41.000 --> 23:41.840
 I wrote a go, yeah.

23:41.840 --> 23:42.680
 And go.

23:42.680 --> 23:43.880
 Is that a functional language?

23:43.880 --> 23:45.280
 I forget what go is.

23:45.280 --> 23:47.160
 Go is Google's language.

23:47.160 --> 23:48.200
 Right.

23:48.200 --> 23:49.480
 It's not functional.

23:49.480 --> 23:54.480
 It's some, it's like, in a way it's C++, but easier.

23:56.160 --> 23:58.200
 It's strongly typed.

23:58.200 --> 23:59.760
 It has a nice ecosystem around it.

23:59.760 --> 24:01.680
 When I first looked at it, I was like,

24:01.680 --> 24:03.800
 this is like Python, but it takes twice as long

24:03.800 --> 24:05.600
 to do anything.

24:05.600 --> 24:09.600
 Now that I've open pilot is migrating to C,

24:09.600 --> 24:11.000
 but it still has large Python components,

24:11.000 --> 24:12.760
 I now understand why Python doesn't work

24:12.760 --> 24:15.840
 for large code bases and why you want something like go.

24:15.840 --> 24:16.680
 Interesting.

24:16.680 --> 24:18.680
 So why, why doesn't Python work for,

24:18.680 --> 24:21.720
 so even most, speaking for myself at least,

24:21.720 --> 24:24.960
 like we do a lot of stuff, basically demo level work

24:24.960 --> 24:29.240
 with autonomous vehicles and most of the work is Python.

24:29.240 --> 24:32.440
 Why doesn't Python work for large code bases?

24:32.440 --> 24:37.440
 Because, well, lack of type checking is a big one.

24:37.920 --> 24:39.360
 So errors creep in.

24:39.360 --> 24:41.920
 Yeah, and like you don't know,

24:41.920 --> 24:45.320
 the compiler can tell you like nothing, right?

24:45.320 --> 24:48.440
 So everything is either, you know,

24:48.440 --> 24:49.880
 like syntax errors, fine,

24:49.880 --> 24:51.800
 but if you misspell a variable in Python,

24:51.800 --> 24:53.000
 the compiler won't catch that.

24:53.000 --> 24:56.600
 There's like linters that can catch it some of the time.

24:56.600 --> 24:57.560
 There's no types.

24:57.560 --> 25:00.520
 This is really the biggest downside.

25:00.520 --> 25:02.640
 And then we'll Python slow, but that's not related to it.

25:02.640 --> 25:04.840
 Well, maybe it's kind of related to it, so it's lack of.

25:04.840 --> 25:06.600
 So what's in your toolbox these days?

25:06.600 --> 25:07.760
 Is it Python or what else?

25:07.760 --> 25:08.600
 Go.

25:08.600 --> 25:10.240
 I need to move to something else.

25:10.240 --> 25:12.880
 My adventure into dependently typed languages,

25:12.880 --> 25:14.240
 I love these languages.

25:14.240 --> 25:17.520
 They just have like syntax from the 80s.

25:18.520 --> 25:21.120
 What do you think about JavaScript?

25:21.120 --> 25:24.000
 ES6, like the modern type script?

25:24.000 --> 25:27.320
 JavaScript is, the whole ecosystem

25:27.320 --> 25:29.320
 is unbelievably confusing.

25:29.320 --> 25:32.840
 NPM updates a package from 022 to 025

25:32.840 --> 25:34.560
 and that breaks your Babel linter,

25:34.560 --> 25:38.560
 which translates your ES5 into ES6, which doesn't run on.

25:38.560 --> 25:42.480
 So why do I have to compile my JavaScript again, huh?

25:42.480 --> 25:44.040
 It may be the future though.

25:44.040 --> 25:45.800
 You think about, I mean,

25:45.800 --> 25:47.400
 I've embraced JavaScript recently

25:47.400 --> 25:52.280
 just because just like I've continually embraced PHP,

25:52.280 --> 25:55.360
 it seems that these worst possible languages live on

25:55.360 --> 25:57.480
 for the longest, like cockroaches never die.

25:57.480 --> 26:00.760
 Yeah, well, it's in the browser and it's fast.

26:00.760 --> 26:01.680
 It's fast.

26:01.680 --> 26:02.520
 Yeah.

26:02.520 --> 26:05.480
 It's in the browser and compute might stay become,

26:05.480 --> 26:06.440
 you know, the browser,

26:06.440 --> 26:09.040
 it's unclear what the role of the browser is

26:09.040 --> 26:11.800
 in terms of distributed computation in the future.

26:11.800 --> 26:12.640
 So.

26:13.600 --> 26:15.240
 JavaScript is definitely here to stay.

26:15.240 --> 26:16.080
 Yeah.

26:16.080 --> 26:18.160
 It's interesting if autonomous vehicles

26:18.160 --> 26:19.480
 will run on JavaScript one day.

26:19.480 --> 26:21.760
 I mean, you have to consider these possibilities.

26:21.760 --> 26:24.280
 Well, all our debug tools are JavaScript.

26:24.280 --> 26:26.040
 We actually just open source them.

26:26.040 --> 26:28.160
 We have a tool explorer, which you can annotate

26:28.160 --> 26:30.080
 your disengagements and we have tool Kibana,

26:30.080 --> 26:32.920
 which lets you analyze the can traffic from the car.

26:32.920 --> 26:35.240
 So basically any time you're visualizing something

26:35.240 --> 26:37.720
 about the log using JavaScript.

26:37.720 --> 26:40.120
 Well, the web is the best UI toolkit by far.

26:40.120 --> 26:40.960
 Yeah.

26:40.960 --> 26:41.880
 So, and then, you know what?

26:41.880 --> 26:42.760
 You're coding in JavaScript.

26:42.760 --> 26:43.600
 We have a React guy.

26:43.600 --> 26:44.440
 He's good.

26:44.440 --> 26:46.080
 React, nice.

26:46.080 --> 26:46.920
 Let's get into it.

26:46.920 --> 26:49.120
 So let's talk autonomous vehicles.

26:49.120 --> 26:50.640
 You found a comma AI.

26:51.440 --> 26:54.920
 Let's, at a high level,

26:54.920 --> 26:57.880
 how did you get into the world of vehicle automation?

26:57.880 --> 26:59.920
 Can you also just, for people who don't know,

26:59.920 --> 27:01.400
 tell the story of comma AI?

27:01.400 --> 27:02.920
 Sure.

27:02.920 --> 27:06.120
 So I was working at this AI startup

27:06.120 --> 27:09.240
 and a friend approached me and he's like,

27:09.240 --> 27:12.080
 dude, I don't know where this is going,

27:12.080 --> 27:15.160
 but the coolest applied AI problem today

27:15.160 --> 27:16.480
 is self driving cars.

27:16.480 --> 27:17.720
 I'm like, well, absolutely.

27:18.800 --> 27:20.520
 You wanna meet with Elon Musk

27:20.520 --> 27:24.560
 and he's looking for somebody to build a vision system

27:24.560 --> 27:27.600
 for autopilot.

27:27.600 --> 27:29.320
 This is when they were still on AP one.

27:29.320 --> 27:30.840
 They were still using Mobileye.

27:30.840 --> 27:33.680
 Elon back then was looking for a replacement.

27:33.680 --> 27:37.320
 And he brought me in and we talked about a contract

27:37.320 --> 27:39.040
 where I would deliver something

27:39.040 --> 27:41.640
 that meets Mobileye level performance.

27:41.640 --> 27:43.920
 I would get paid $12 million if I could deliver it tomorrow

27:43.920 --> 27:46.720
 and I would lose $1 million for every month I didn't deliver.

27:47.720 --> 27:49.080
 So I was like, okay, this is a great deal.

27:49.080 --> 27:50.800
 This is a super exciting challenge.

27:52.360 --> 27:53.200
 You know what?

27:53.200 --> 27:55.840
 It takes me 10 months, I get $2 million, it's good.

27:55.840 --> 27:57.160
 Maybe I can finish up in five.

27:57.160 --> 27:58.880
 Maybe I don't finish it at all and I get paid nothing

27:58.880 --> 28:00.880
 and I'll work for 12 months for free.

28:00.880 --> 28:02.960
 So maybe just take a pause on that.

28:02.960 --> 28:04.280
 I'm also curious about this

28:04.280 --> 28:06.360
 because I've been working in robotics for a long time.

28:06.360 --> 28:08.320
 And I'm curious to see a person like you just step in

28:08.320 --> 28:12.000
 and sort of somewhat naive, but brilliant, right?

28:12.000 --> 28:14.000
 So that's the best place to be

28:14.000 --> 28:17.240
 because you basically full steam take on a problem.

28:17.240 --> 28:19.720
 How confident, from that time,

28:19.720 --> 28:21.320
 because you know a lot more now,

28:21.320 --> 28:23.440
 at that time, how hard do you think it is

28:23.440 --> 28:25.880
 to solve all of autonomous driving?

28:25.880 --> 28:30.440
 I remember I suggested to Elon in the meeting

28:30.440 --> 28:33.120
 on putting a GPU behind each camera

28:33.120 --> 28:35.120
 to keep the compute local.

28:35.120 --> 28:38.000
 This is an incredibly stupid idea.

28:38.000 --> 28:40.080
 I leave the meeting 10 minutes later and I'm like,

28:40.080 --> 28:41.560
 I could have spent a little bit of time

28:41.560 --> 28:42.880
 thinking about this problem before I went in.

28:42.880 --> 28:44.200
 Why is this a stupid idea?

28:44.200 --> 28:46.280
 Oh, just send all your cameras to one big GPU.

28:46.280 --> 28:48.240
 You're much better off doing that.

28:48.240 --> 28:50.160
 Oh, sorry, you said behind every camera.

28:50.160 --> 28:51.000
 Every camera.

28:51.000 --> 28:51.840
 Every small GPU.

28:51.840 --> 28:52.720
 I was like, oh, I'll put the first few layers

28:52.720 --> 28:54.520
 of my comms there.

28:54.520 --> 28:56.080
 Like why did I say that?

28:56.080 --> 28:56.920
 That's possible.

28:56.920 --> 28:59.000
 It's possible, but it's a bad idea.

28:59.000 --> 29:00.480
 It's not obviously a bad idea.

29:00.480 --> 29:01.320
 Pretty obviously bad.

29:01.320 --> 29:02.960
 But whether it's actually a bad idea or not,

29:02.960 --> 29:05.240
 I left that meeting with Elon, like beating myself up.

29:05.240 --> 29:07.080
 I'm like, why did I say something stupid?

29:07.080 --> 29:09.360
 Yeah, you haven't, like you haven't at least

29:09.360 --> 29:12.240
 like thought through every aspect fully.

29:12.240 --> 29:13.200
 He's very sharp too.

29:13.200 --> 29:15.760
 Like usually in life, I get away with saying stupid things

29:15.760 --> 29:16.960
 and then kind of course,

29:16.960 --> 29:18.560
 right away he called me out about it.

29:18.560 --> 29:19.800
 And like, usually in life,

29:19.800 --> 29:21.120
 I get away with saying stupid things.

29:21.120 --> 29:24.640
 And then like people will, you know,

29:24.640 --> 29:26.080
 a lot of times people don't even notice.

29:26.080 --> 29:28.200
 And I'll like correct it and bring the conversation back.

29:28.200 --> 29:30.600
 But with Elon, it was like, nope, like, okay.

29:30.600 --> 29:33.520
 Well, that's not at all why the contract fell through.

29:33.520 --> 29:35.520
 I was much more prepared the second time I met him.

29:35.520 --> 29:36.360
 Yeah.

29:36.360 --> 29:39.640
 But in general, how hard did you think it,

29:39.640 --> 29:43.680
 like 12 months is a tough timeline?

29:43.680 --> 29:45.720
 Oh, I just thought I'd clone Mobileye IQ three.

29:45.720 --> 29:47.560
 I didn't think I'd solve level five self driving

29:47.560 --> 29:48.400
 or anything.

29:48.400 --> 29:51.000
 So the goal there was to do lane keeping,

29:51.000 --> 29:52.840
 good lane keeping.

29:52.840 --> 29:55.560
 I saw my friend showed me the outputs from Mobileye.

29:55.560 --> 29:57.680
 And the outputs from Mobileye was just basically two lanes

29:57.680 --> 29:59.440
 and a position of a lead car.

29:59.440 --> 30:01.560
 I'm like, I can gather a data set

30:01.560 --> 30:03.440
 and train this net in weeks.

30:03.440 --> 30:04.840
 And I did.

30:04.840 --> 30:07.600
 Well, first time I tried the implementation of Mobileye

30:07.600 --> 30:11.240
 in a Tesla, I was really surprised how good it is.

30:11.240 --> 30:12.320
 It's quite incredibly good.

30:12.320 --> 30:14.080
 Cause I thought it's just cause I've done

30:14.080 --> 30:14.920
 a lot of computer vision.

30:14.920 --> 30:18.880
 I thought it'd be a lot harder to create a system

30:18.880 --> 30:20.040
 that that's stable.

30:21.000 --> 30:22.440
 So I was personally surprised.

30:22.440 --> 30:25.000
 Just, you know, have to admit it.

30:25.000 --> 30:27.840
 Cause I was kind of skeptical before trying it.

30:27.840 --> 30:31.200
 Cause I thought it would go in and out a lot more.

30:31.200 --> 30:33.160
 It would get disengaged a lot more.

30:33.160 --> 30:35.000
 And it's pretty robust.

30:36.200 --> 30:39.720
 So what, how, how, how hard is the problem

30:39.720 --> 30:42.080
 when you, when you tackled it?

30:42.080 --> 30:45.760
 So I think AP one was great. Like Elon talked

30:45.760 --> 30:49.040
 about disengagements on the 405 down in LA

30:49.040 --> 30:51.040
 with like the lane marks were kind of faded

30:51.040 --> 30:52.960
 and the Mobileye system would drop out.

30:53.960 --> 30:57.240
 Like I had something up and working

30:57.240 --> 31:01.440
 that I would say was like the same quality in three months.

31:02.480 --> 31:04.560
 Same quality, but how do you know?

31:04.560 --> 31:07.400
 You say stuff like that confidently, but you can't,

31:07.400 --> 31:12.120
 and I love it, but the question is you can't,

31:12.120 --> 31:13.880
 you're kind of going by feel cause you just,

31:13.880 --> 31:15.560
 You're going by feel, absolutely, absolutely.

31:15.560 --> 31:17.280
 Like, like I would take, I hadn't,

31:17.280 --> 31:18.480
 I borrowed my friend's Tesla.

31:18.480 --> 31:20.760
 I would take AP one out for a drive.

31:20.760 --> 31:22.320
 And then I would take my system out for a drive.

31:22.320 --> 31:24.440
 And seems reasonably like the same.

31:26.080 --> 31:30.480
 So the 405, how hard is it to create something

31:30.480 --> 31:34.200
 that could actually be a product that's deployed?

31:34.200 --> 31:39.200
 I mean, I've read an article where Elon, this respond,

31:39.520 --> 31:41.880
 it said something about you saying that

31:41.880 --> 31:46.880
 to build autopilot is more complicated

31:47.080 --> 31:51.880
 than a single George Hodds level job.

31:51.880 --> 31:55.520
 How hard is that job to create something

31:55.520 --> 31:57.480
 that would work across the globally?

31:58.960 --> 32:00.640
 Why don't the global is the challenge,

32:00.640 --> 32:02.240
 but Elon followed that up by saying

32:02.240 --> 32:04.920
 it's going to take two years and a company of 10 people.

32:04.920 --> 32:07.920
 And here I am four years later with a company of 12 people.

32:07.920 --> 32:09.960
 And I think we still have another two to go.

32:09.960 --> 32:10.800
 Two years.

32:10.800 --> 32:13.120
 So yeah, so what do you think,

32:13.120 --> 32:15.960
 what do you think about how Tesla's progressing

32:15.960 --> 32:19.200
 with autopilot of V2, V3?

32:19.200 --> 32:23.120
 I think we've kept pace with them pretty well.

32:24.080 --> 32:26.880
 I think navigating autopilot is terrible.

32:26.880 --> 32:31.120
 We had some demo features internally of the same stuff

32:31.120 --> 32:32.720
 and we would test it and I'm like,

32:32.720 --> 32:34.720
 I'm not shipping this even as like open source software

32:34.720 --> 32:35.560
 to people.

32:35.560 --> 32:37.400
 What do you think is terrible?

32:37.400 --> 32:39.600
 Consumer Reports does a great job of describing it.

32:39.600 --> 32:41.240
 Like when it makes a lane change,

32:41.240 --> 32:43.600
 it does it worse than a human.

32:43.600 --> 32:46.960
 You shouldn't ship things like autopilot, open pilot,

32:46.960 --> 32:49.760
 they lane keep better than a human.

32:49.760 --> 32:53.440
 If you turn it on for a stretch of highway,

32:53.440 --> 32:56.680
 like an hour long, it's never going to touch a lane line.

32:56.680 --> 32:59.040
 Human will touch probably a lane line twice.

32:59.040 --> 33:00.080
 You just inspired me.

33:00.080 --> 33:02.200
 I don't know if you're grounded in data on that.

33:02.200 --> 33:03.280
 I read your paper.

33:03.280 --> 33:05.400
 Okay, but no, but that's interesting.

33:06.720 --> 33:09.840
 I wonder actually how often we touch lane lines

33:11.200 --> 33:13.400
 a little bit because it is.

33:13.400 --> 33:14.960
 I could answer that question pretty easily

33:14.960 --> 33:15.800
 with the common data side.

33:15.800 --> 33:16.920
 Yeah, I'm curious.

33:16.920 --> 33:17.760
 I've never answered it.

33:17.760 --> 33:18.600
 I don't know.

33:18.600 --> 33:20.000
 I just too was like my personal.

33:20.000 --> 33:22.400
 It feels right, but that's interesting

33:22.400 --> 33:23.800
 because every time you touch a lane,

33:23.800 --> 33:26.760
 that's a source of a little bit of stress

33:26.760 --> 33:29.320
 and kind of lane keeping is removing that stress.

33:29.320 --> 33:31.840
 That's ultimately the biggest value add

33:31.840 --> 33:34.240
 honestly is just removing the stress

33:34.240 --> 33:35.480
 of having to stay in lane.

33:35.480 --> 33:39.040
 And I think I don't think people fully realize

33:39.040 --> 33:41.960
 first of all that that's a big value add,

33:41.960 --> 33:45.000
 but also that that's all it is.

33:45.000 --> 33:48.560
 And that not only I find it a huge value add.

33:48.560 --> 33:50.440
 I drove down when we moved to San Diego,

33:50.440 --> 33:52.640
 I drove down in an enterprise rental car

33:52.640 --> 33:53.480
 and I missed it.

33:53.480 --> 33:55.480
 So I missed having the system so much.

33:55.480 --> 33:59.200
 It's so much more tiring to drive

33:59.200 --> 34:00.320
 without it.

34:00.320 --> 34:02.960
 It's, it is that lane centering.

34:02.960 --> 34:04.840
 That's the key feature.

34:04.840 --> 34:05.680
 Yeah.

34:06.600 --> 34:08.960
 And in a way it's the only feature

34:08.960 --> 34:11.040
 that actually adds value to people's lives

34:11.040 --> 34:12.200
 in autonomous vehicles today.

34:12.200 --> 34:13.840
 Waymo does not add value to people's lives.

34:13.840 --> 34:15.880
 It's a more expensive, slower Uber.

34:15.880 --> 34:18.640
 Maybe someday it'll be this big cliff where it adds value,

34:18.640 --> 34:19.480
 but I don't usually.

34:19.480 --> 34:20.320
 It's fascinating.

34:20.320 --> 34:22.560
 I haven't talked to, this is good.

34:22.560 --> 34:25.840
 Cause I haven't, I have intuitively,

34:25.840 --> 34:28.320
 but I think we're making it explicit now.

34:28.320 --> 34:33.320
 I actually believe that really good lane keeping

34:35.480 --> 34:37.240
 is a reason to buy a car.

34:37.240 --> 34:38.440
 Will be a reason to buy a car.

34:38.440 --> 34:39.720
 It is a huge value add.

34:39.720 --> 34:41.760
 I've never, until we just started talking about it,

34:41.760 --> 34:43.880
 haven't really quite realized it,

34:43.880 --> 34:48.880
 that I've felt with Elon's chase of level four

34:49.440 --> 34:52.360
 is not the correct chase.

34:52.360 --> 34:56.000
 It was on, cause you should just say Tesla has the best

34:56.000 --> 34:58.320
 as if from a Tesla perspective say,

34:58.320 --> 35:00.600
 Tesla has the best lane keeping.

35:00.600 --> 35:04.160
 Kama AI should say Kama AI is the best lane keeping.

35:04.160 --> 35:05.640
 And that is it.

35:05.640 --> 35:06.480
 Yeah.

35:06.480 --> 35:07.320
 Yeah.

35:07.320 --> 35:08.160
 Do you think?

35:08.160 --> 35:09.920
 You have to do the longitudinal as well.

35:09.920 --> 35:10.960
 You can't just lane keep.

35:10.960 --> 35:12.920
 You have to do ACC,

35:12.920 --> 35:15.840
 but ACC is much more forgiving than lane keep,

35:15.840 --> 35:17.400
 especially on the highway.

35:17.400 --> 35:22.000
 By the way, are you Kama AI's camera only, correct?

35:22.000 --> 35:23.440
 No, we use the radar.

35:23.440 --> 35:26.960
 We, from the car, you're able to get to, okay.

35:26.960 --> 35:28.800
 We can do it camera only now.

35:28.800 --> 35:29.640
 It's gotten to the point,

35:29.640 --> 35:31.600
 but we leave the radar there as like a,

35:31.600 --> 35:33.440
 it's fusion now.

35:33.440 --> 35:35.440
 Okay, so let's maybe talk through

35:35.440 --> 35:37.920
 some of the system specs on the hardware.

35:37.920 --> 35:42.880
 What's the hardware side of what you're providing?

35:42.880 --> 35:44.720
 What's the capabilities on the software side

35:44.720 --> 35:46.800
 with OpenPilot and so on?

35:46.800 --> 35:51.800
 So OpenPilot as the box that we sell that it runs on,

35:51.800 --> 35:53.920
 it's a phone in a plastic case.

35:53.920 --> 35:54.840
 It's nothing special.

35:54.840 --> 35:56.200
 We sell it without the software.

35:56.200 --> 35:57.840
 So you're like, you know, you buy the phone,

35:57.840 --> 35:58.920
 it's just easy.

35:58.920 --> 36:00.240
 It'll be easy set up,

36:00.240 --> 36:01.720
 but it's sold with no software.

36:03.480 --> 36:06.600
 OpenPilot right now is about to be 0.6.

36:06.600 --> 36:07.880
 When it gets to 1.0,

36:07.880 --> 36:09.680
 I think we'll be ready for a consumer product.

36:09.680 --> 36:11.120
 We're not gonna add any new features.

36:11.120 --> 36:13.800
 We're just gonna make the lane keeping really, really good.

36:13.800 --> 36:15.120
 Okay, I got it.

36:15.120 --> 36:16.120
 So what do we have right now?

36:16.120 --> 36:18.200
 It's a Snapdragon 820.

36:18.200 --> 36:23.200
 It's a Sony IMX 298 forward facing camera,

36:23.680 --> 36:24.720
 driver monitoring camera.

36:24.720 --> 36:26.400
 It's just a selfie cam on the phone.

36:26.400 --> 36:30.000
 And a can transceiver,

36:30.000 --> 36:32.320
 maybe it's a little thing called pandas.

36:32.320 --> 36:35.040
 And they talk over USB to the phone

36:35.040 --> 36:36.400
 and then they have three can buses

36:36.400 --> 36:37.560
 that they talk to the car.

36:38.560 --> 36:40.920
 One of those can buses is the radar can bus.

36:40.920 --> 36:42.920
 One of them is the main car can bus.

36:42.920 --> 36:44.920
 And the other one is the proxy camera can bus.

36:44.920 --> 36:47.320
 We leave the existing camera in place.

36:47.320 --> 36:49.560
 So we don't turn AEB off.

36:49.560 --> 36:51.040
 Right now we still turn AEB off

36:51.040 --> 36:52.280
 if you're using our longitudinal,

36:52.280 --> 36:54.320
 but we're gonna fix that before 1.0.

36:54.320 --> 36:55.160
 Got it.

36:55.160 --> 36:56.000
 Wow, that's cool.

36:56.000 --> 36:57.960
 So in its can both ways.

36:57.960 --> 37:02.120
 So how are you able to control vehicles?

37:02.120 --> 37:05.520
 So we proxy the vehicles that we work with

37:05.520 --> 37:08.960
 already have a lane keeping assist system.

37:08.960 --> 37:12.520
 So lane keeping assist can mean a huge variety of things.

37:12.520 --> 37:16.120
 It can mean it will apply a small torque

37:16.120 --> 37:18.920
 to the wheel after you've already crossed a lane line

37:18.920 --> 37:22.720
 by a foot, which is the system in the older Toyotas.

37:22.720 --> 37:26.360
 Versus like, I think Tesla still calls it lane keeping assist

37:26.360 --> 37:28.920
 where it'll keep you perfectly in the center of the lane

37:28.920 --> 37:29.960
 on the highway.

37:31.240 --> 37:34.000
 You can control like you with the joystick, the cars.

37:34.000 --> 37:36.600
 So these cars already have the capability of drive by wire.

37:36.600 --> 37:41.600
 So is it, is it trivial to convert a car

37:41.600 --> 37:43.320
 that it operates with?

37:43.320 --> 37:47.480
 It open pilot is able to control the steering.

37:48.480 --> 37:49.720
 Oh, a new car or a car that we,

37:49.720 --> 37:52.800
 so we have support now for 45 different makes of cars.

37:52.800 --> 37:54.880
 What are the cars in general?

37:54.880 --> 37:56.360
 Mostly Honda's and Toyotas.

37:56.360 --> 38:00.640
 We support almost every Honda and Toyota made this year.

38:01.680 --> 38:04.480
 And then bunch of GM's, bunch of Subaru's.

38:04.480 --> 38:05.960
 But it doesn't have to be like a Prius.

38:05.960 --> 38:07.320
 It could be Corolla as well.

38:07.320 --> 38:10.760
 Oh, the 2020 Corolla is the best car with open pilot.

38:10.760 --> 38:11.720
 It just came out there.

38:11.720 --> 38:14.200
 The actuator has less lag than the older Corolla.

38:15.840 --> 38:18.240
 I think I started watching a video with you.

38:18.240 --> 38:21.480
 I mean, the way you make videos is awesome.

38:21.480 --> 38:24.320
 It's just literally at the dealership streaming.

38:25.320 --> 38:26.160
 I had my friend to follow him.

38:26.160 --> 38:27.560
 I probably want to stream for an hour.

38:27.560 --> 38:31.120
 Yeah, and basically like if stuff goes a little wrong,

38:31.120 --> 38:33.160
 you just like, you just go with it.

38:33.160 --> 38:34.000
 Yeah, I love it.

38:34.000 --> 38:34.840
 It's real.

38:34.840 --> 38:35.680
 Yeah, it's real.

38:35.680 --> 38:42.000
 That's so beautiful and it's so in contrast to the way

38:42.000 --> 38:44.600
 other companies would put together a video like that.

38:44.600 --> 38:46.000
 Kind of why I like to do it like that.

38:46.000 --> 38:46.840
 Good.

38:46.840 --> 38:49.720
 I mean, if you become super rich one day and successful,

38:49.720 --> 38:52.280
 I hope you keep it that way because I think that's actually

38:52.280 --> 38:54.600
 what people love, that kind of genuine.

38:54.600 --> 38:56.520
 Oh, it's all that has value to me.

38:56.520 --> 38:59.840
 Money has no, if I sell out to like make money,

38:59.840 --> 39:00.680
 I sold out.

39:00.680 --> 39:01.520
 It doesn't matter.

39:01.520 --> 39:02.360
 What do I get?

39:02.360 --> 39:04.440
 Yacht, I don't want a yacht.

39:04.440 --> 39:09.440
 And I think Tesla actually has a small inkling of that

39:09.440 --> 39:11.240
 as well with autonomy day.

39:11.240 --> 39:14.000
 They did reveal more than, I mean, of course,

39:14.000 --> 39:15.680
 there's marketing communications, you could tell,

39:15.680 --> 39:17.640
 but it's more than most companies would reveal,

39:17.640 --> 39:20.960
 which is I hope they go towards that direction

39:20.960 --> 39:23.000
 more other companies, GM, Ford.

39:23.000 --> 39:25.400
 Oh, Tesla's going to win level five.

39:25.400 --> 39:26.560
 They really are.

39:26.560 --> 39:27.800
 So let's talk about it.

39:27.800 --> 39:33.000
 You think, you're focused on level two currently, currently.

39:33.000 --> 39:36.160
 We're going to be one to two years behind Tesla

39:36.160 --> 39:37.160
 getting to level five.

39:37.160 --> 39:38.520
 OK.

39:38.520 --> 39:39.320
 We're Android, right?

39:39.320 --> 39:39.880
 We're Android.

39:39.880 --> 39:40.680
 You're Android.

39:40.680 --> 39:42.240
 I'm just saying once Tesla gets it,

39:42.240 --> 39:43.440
 we're one to two years behind.

39:43.440 --> 39:45.680
 I'm not making any timeline on when Tesla's going to get it.

39:45.680 --> 39:46.120
 That's right.

39:46.120 --> 39:46.360
 You did.

39:46.360 --> 39:46.960
 That's brilliant.

39:46.960 --> 39:48.560
 I'm sorry, Tesla investors, if you

39:48.560 --> 39:50.520
 think you're going to have an autonomous robot taxi

39:50.520 --> 39:54.920
 fleet by the end of the year, I'll bet against that.

39:54.920 --> 39:57.720
 So what do you think about this?

39:57.720 --> 40:03.280
 The most level four companies are kind of just

40:03.280 --> 40:08.360
 doing their usual safety driver, doing full autonomy kind

40:08.360 --> 40:08.800
 of testing.

40:08.800 --> 40:10.880
 And then Tesla does basically trying

40:10.880 --> 40:15.280
 to go from lane keeping to full autonomy.

40:15.280 --> 40:16.840
 What do you think about that approach?

40:16.840 --> 40:18.360
 How successful would it be?

40:18.360 --> 40:20.680
 It's a ton better approach.

40:20.680 --> 40:23.960
 Because Tesla is gathering data on a scale

40:23.960 --> 40:25.200
 that none of them are.

40:25.200 --> 40:29.560
 They're putting real users behind the wheel of the cars.

40:29.560 --> 40:34.440
 It's, I think, the only strategy that works, the incremental.

40:34.440 --> 40:37.000
 Well, so there's a few components to Tesla approach

40:37.000 --> 40:38.800
 that's more than just the incremental.

40:38.800 --> 40:41.400
 What you spoke with is the software,

40:41.400 --> 40:43.720
 so over the air software updates.

40:43.720 --> 40:44.800
 Necessity.

40:44.800 --> 40:46.440
 I mean, Waymo crews have those too.

40:46.440 --> 40:47.560
 Those aren't.

40:47.560 --> 40:48.080
 But no.

40:48.080 --> 40:49.800
 Those differentiate from the automakers.

40:49.800 --> 40:50.080
 Right.

40:50.080 --> 40:53.440
 No lane keeping systems have no cars with lane keeping system

40:53.440 --> 40:54.760
 have that except Tesla.

40:54.760 --> 40:55.720
 Yeah.

40:55.720 --> 40:59.760
 And the other one is the data, the other direction,

40:59.760 --> 41:01.840
 which is the ability to query the data.

41:01.840 --> 41:03.480
 I don't think they're actually collecting

41:03.480 --> 41:05.240
 as much data as people think, but the ability

41:05.240 --> 41:09.440
 to turn on collection and turn it off.

41:09.440 --> 41:13.400
 So I'm both in the robotics world, in the psychology,

41:13.400 --> 41:15.000
 human factors world.

41:15.000 --> 41:17.320
 Many people believe that level two autonomy

41:17.320 --> 41:20.040
 is problematic because of the human factor.

41:20.040 --> 41:23.280
 Like the more the task is automated,

41:23.280 --> 41:25.960
 the more there's a vigilance decrement.

41:25.960 --> 41:27.200
 You start to fall asleep.

41:27.200 --> 41:30.480
 You start to become complacent, start texting more and so on.

41:30.480 --> 41:32.200
 Do you worry about that?

41:32.200 --> 41:35.000
 Because if you're talking about transition from lane keeping

41:35.000 --> 41:40.960
 to full autonomy, if you're spending 80% of the time

41:40.960 --> 41:43.080
 not supervising the machine, do you

41:43.080 --> 41:47.080
 worry about what that means for the safety of the drivers?

41:47.080 --> 41:49.640
 One, we don't consider OpenPilot to be 1.0

41:49.640 --> 41:52.880
 until we have 100% driver monitoring.

41:52.880 --> 41:55.000
 You can cheat right now, our driver monitoring system.

41:55.000 --> 41:56.080
 There's a few ways to cheat it.

41:56.080 --> 41:58.160
 They're pretty obvious.

41:58.160 --> 41:59.680
 We're working on making that better.

41:59.680 --> 42:02.520
 Before we ship a consumer product that can drive cars,

42:02.520 --> 42:04.240
 I want to make sure that I have driver monitoring

42:04.240 --> 42:05.440
 that you can't cheat.

42:05.440 --> 42:09.000
 What's a successful driver monitoring system look like?

42:09.000 --> 42:11.680
 Is it all about just keeping your eyes on the road?

42:11.680 --> 42:12.760
 Well, a few things.

42:12.760 --> 42:16.600
 So that's what we went with at first for driver monitoring.

42:16.600 --> 42:17.160
 I'm checking.

42:17.160 --> 42:19.000
 I'm actually looking at where your head is looking.

42:19.000 --> 42:19.880
 The camera's not that high.

42:19.880 --> 42:21.840
 Resolution eyes are a little bit hard to get.

42:21.840 --> 42:22.880
 Well, head is big.

42:22.880 --> 42:23.560
 I mean, that's just.

42:23.560 --> 42:24.640
 Head is good.

42:24.640 --> 42:28.720
 And actually, a lot of it, just psychology wise,

42:28.720 --> 42:30.720
 to have that monitor constantly there,

42:30.720 --> 42:33.400
 it reminds you that you have to be paying attention.

42:33.400 --> 42:35.080
 But we want to go further.

42:35.080 --> 42:36.760
 We just hired someone full time to come on

42:36.760 --> 42:37.960
 to do the driver monitoring.

42:37.960 --> 42:40.600
 I want to detect phone in frame, and I

42:40.600 --> 42:42.600
 want to make sure you're not sleeping.

42:42.600 --> 42:44.880
 How much does the camera see of the body?

42:44.880 --> 42:47.480
 This one, not enough.

42:47.480 --> 42:48.400
 Not enough.

42:48.400 --> 42:50.720
 The next one, everything.

42:50.720 --> 42:52.920
 What's interesting, FishEye, is we're

42:52.920 --> 42:55.200
 doing just data collection, not real time.

42:55.200 --> 42:59.200
 But FishEye is a beautiful being able to capture the body.

42:59.200 --> 43:03.280
 And the smartphone is really the biggest problem.

43:03.280 --> 43:03.880
 I'll show you.

43:03.880 --> 43:07.800
 I can show you one of the pictures from our new system.

43:07.800 --> 43:08.160
 Awesome.

43:08.160 --> 43:10.520
 So you're basically saying the driver monitoring

43:10.520 --> 43:13.080
 will be the answer to that.

43:13.080 --> 43:15.320
 I think the other point that you raised in your paper

43:15.320 --> 43:16.920
 is good as well.

43:16.920 --> 43:20.400
 You're not asking a human to supervise a machine

43:20.400 --> 43:23.920
 without giving them the they can take over at any time.

43:23.920 --> 43:25.760
 Our safety model, you can take over.

43:25.760 --> 43:27.720
 We disengage on both the gas or the brake.

43:27.720 --> 43:28.880
 We don't disengage on steering.

43:28.880 --> 43:29.920
 I don't feel you have to.

43:29.920 --> 43:31.720
 But we disengage on gas or brake.

43:31.720 --> 43:34.240
 So it's very easy for you to take over.

43:34.240 --> 43:36.400
 And it's very easy for you to reengage.

43:36.400 --> 43:39.320
 That switching should be super cheap.

43:39.320 --> 43:40.800
 The cars that require, even autopilot,

43:40.800 --> 43:42.400
 requires a double press.

43:42.400 --> 43:44.360
 That's almost, I see, I don't like that.

43:44.360 --> 43:46.440
 And then the cancel.

43:46.440 --> 43:48.320
 To cancel in autopilot, you either

43:48.320 --> 43:49.920
 have to press cancel, which no one knows where that is.

43:49.920 --> 43:51.000
 So they press the brake.

43:51.000 --> 43:53.360
 But a lot of times you don't want to press the brake.

43:53.360 --> 43:54.560
 You want to press the gas.

43:54.560 --> 43:56.880
 So you should cancel on gas or wiggle the steering wheel,

43:56.880 --> 43:57.960
 which is bad as well.

43:57.960 --> 43:58.920
 Wow, that's brilliant.

43:58.920 --> 44:01.440
 I haven't heard anyone articulate that point.

44:01.440 --> 44:04.960
 Oh, there's a lot I think about.

44:04.960 --> 44:09.800
 Because I think actually Tesla has done a better job

44:09.800 --> 44:12.920
 than most automakers at making that frictionless.

44:12.920 --> 44:16.600
 But you just described that it could be even better.

44:16.600 --> 44:19.320
 I love Super Cruise as an experience.

44:19.320 --> 44:21.120
 Once it's engaged.

44:21.120 --> 44:22.800
 I don't know if you've used it, but getting the thing

44:22.800 --> 44:25.040
 to try to engage.

44:25.040 --> 44:27.480
 Yeah, I've used the driven Super Cruise a lot.

44:27.480 --> 44:29.680
 So what's your thoughts on the Super Cruise system in general?

44:29.680 --> 44:32.640
 You disengage Super Cruise, and it falls back to ACC.

44:32.640 --> 44:34.600
 So my car is still accelerating.

44:34.600 --> 44:36.280
 It feels weird.

44:36.280 --> 44:39.000
 Otherwise, when you actually have Super Cruise engaged

44:39.000 --> 44:41.200
 on the highway, it is phenomenal.

44:41.200 --> 44:42.320
 We bought that Cadillac.

44:42.320 --> 44:43.240
 We just sold it.

44:43.240 --> 44:45.600
 But we bought it just to experience this.

44:45.600 --> 44:47.440
 And I wanted everyone in the office to be like,

44:47.440 --> 44:49.360
 this is what we're striving to build.

44:49.360 --> 44:52.800
 GM pioneering with the driver monitoring.

44:52.800 --> 44:55.040
 You like their driver monitoring system?

44:55.040 --> 44:56.440
 It has some bugs.

44:56.440 --> 45:01.960
 If there's a sun shining back here, it'll be blind to you.

45:01.960 --> 45:03.360
 But overall, mostly, yeah.

45:03.360 --> 45:05.960
 That's so cool that you know all this stuff.

45:05.960 --> 45:09.960
 I don't often talk to people that because it's such a rare car,

45:09.960 --> 45:10.960
 unfortunately, currently.

45:10.960 --> 45:12.760
 We bought one explicitly for that.

45:12.760 --> 45:15.040
 We lost like $25K in the deprecation,

45:15.040 --> 45:16.720
 but it feels worth it.

45:16.720 --> 45:21.280
 I was very pleasantly surprised that our GM system

45:21.280 --> 45:26.320
 was so innovative and really wasn't advertised much,

45:26.320 --> 45:28.480
 wasn't talked about much.

45:28.480 --> 45:31.840
 And I was nervous that it would die, that it would disappear.

45:31.840 --> 45:33.520
 Well, they put it on the wrong car.

45:33.520 --> 45:35.680
 They should have put it on the bolt and not some weird Cadillac

45:35.680 --> 45:36.640
 that nobody bought.

45:36.640 --> 45:39.520
 I think that's going to be into, they're saying at least

45:39.520 --> 45:41.840
 it's going to be into their entire fleet.

45:41.840 --> 45:44.320
 So what do you think about, as long as we're

45:44.320 --> 45:46.920
 on the driver monitoring, what do you think

45:46.920 --> 45:51.920
 about Elon Musk's claim that driver monitoring is not needed?

45:51.920 --> 45:53.680
 Normally, I love his claims.

45:53.680 --> 45:55.560
 That one is stupid.

45:55.560 --> 45:56.560
 That one is stupid.

45:56.560 --> 46:00.320
 And he's not going to have his level five fleet

46:00.320 --> 46:01.320
 by the end of the year.

46:01.320 --> 46:04.880
 Hopefully, he's like, OK, I was wrong.

46:04.880 --> 46:06.280
 I'm going to add driver monitoring.

46:06.280 --> 46:08.240
 Because when these systems get to the point

46:08.240 --> 46:10.320
 that they're only messing up once every 1,000 miles,

46:10.320 --> 46:14.080
 you absolutely need driver monitoring.

46:14.080 --> 46:15.880
 So let me play, because I agree with you,

46:15.880 --> 46:17.320
 but let me play devil's advocate.

46:17.320 --> 46:22.440
 One possibility is that without driver monitoring,

46:22.440 --> 46:29.400
 people are able to self regulate, monitor themselves.

46:29.400 --> 46:30.680
 So your idea is, I'm just.

46:30.680 --> 46:34.160
 You're seeing all the people sleeping in Teslas?

46:34.160 --> 46:35.280
 Yeah.

46:35.280 --> 46:38.320
 Well, I'm a little skeptical of all the people sleeping

46:38.320 --> 46:43.960
 in Teslas because I've stopped paying attention to that kind

46:43.960 --> 46:45.680
 of stuff because I want to see real data.

46:45.680 --> 46:47.240
 It's too much glorified.

46:47.240 --> 46:48.720
 It doesn't feel scientific to me.

46:48.720 --> 46:52.560
 So I want to know how many people are really sleeping

46:52.560 --> 46:55.080
 in Teslas versus sleeping.

46:55.080 --> 46:57.640
 I was driving here, sleep deprived,

46:57.640 --> 46:59.520
 in a car with no automation.

46:59.520 --> 47:01.040
 I was falling asleep.

47:01.040 --> 47:02.120
 I agree that it's hypey.

47:02.120 --> 47:04.840
 It's just like, you know what?

47:04.840 --> 47:08.480
 If Elon put driver monitoring, my last autopilot experience

47:08.480 --> 47:12.200
 was I rented a Model 3 in March and drove it around.

47:12.200 --> 47:13.640
 The wheel thing is annoying.

47:13.640 --> 47:15.440
 And the reason the wheel thing is annoying.

47:15.440 --> 47:17.080
 We use the wheel thing as well, but we

47:17.080 --> 47:18.720
 don't disengage on wheel.

47:18.720 --> 47:21.720
 For Tesla, you have to touch the wheel just enough

47:21.720 --> 47:25.320
 to trigger the torque sensor to tell it that you're there,

47:25.320 --> 47:29.720
 but not enough as to disengage it, which don't use it

47:29.720 --> 47:30.440
 for two things.

47:30.440 --> 47:31.360
 Don't disengage on wheel.

47:31.360 --> 47:32.400
 You don't have to.

47:32.400 --> 47:35.360
 That whole experience, wow, beautifully put.

47:35.360 --> 47:38.360
 All those elements, even if you don't have driver monitoring,

47:38.360 --> 47:41.080
 that whole experience needs to be better.

47:41.080 --> 47:43.760
 Driver monitoring, I think would make,

47:43.760 --> 47:46.200
 I mean, I think supercruise is a better experience

47:46.200 --> 47:48.440
 once it's engaged over autopilot.

47:48.440 --> 47:51.600
 I think supercruise is a transition to engagement

47:51.600 --> 47:55.200
 and disengagement are significantly worse.

47:55.200 --> 47:57.880
 There's a tricky thing, because if I were to criticize

47:57.880 --> 48:00.800
 supercruise, it's a little too crude.

48:00.800 --> 48:03.640
 And I think it's like six seconds or something.

48:03.640 --> 48:06.080
 If you look off road, it'll start warning you.

48:06.080 --> 48:09.120
 It's some ridiculously long period of time.

48:09.120 --> 48:14.120
 And just the way, I think it's basically, it's a binary.

48:15.840 --> 48:17.440
 It should be adapted.

48:17.440 --> 48:19.880
 Yeah, it needs to learn more about you.

48:19.880 --> 48:23.160
 It needs to communicate what it sees about you more.

48:23.160 --> 48:25.800
 I'm not, you know, Tesla shows what it sees

48:25.800 --> 48:27.160
 about the external world.

48:27.160 --> 48:29.120
 It would be nice if supercruise would tell us

48:29.120 --> 48:30.840
 what it sees about the internal world.

48:30.840 --> 48:31.960
 It's even worse than that.

48:31.960 --> 48:33.320
 You press the button to engage

48:33.320 --> 48:35.480
 and it just says supercruise unavailable.

48:35.480 --> 48:36.320
 Yeah, why?

48:36.320 --> 48:37.800
 Why?

48:37.800 --> 48:41.480
 Yeah, that transparency is good.

48:41.480 --> 48:43.520
 We've renamed the driver monitoring packet

48:43.520 --> 48:45.360
 to driver state.

48:45.360 --> 48:46.280
 Driver state.

48:46.280 --> 48:48.360
 We have car state packet, which has the state of the car

48:48.360 --> 48:51.040
 and driver state packet, which has state of the driver.

48:51.040 --> 48:52.240
 So what is it?

48:52.240 --> 48:54.080
 Estimate their BAC.

48:54.080 --> 48:54.920
 What's BAC?

48:54.920 --> 48:55.920
 Blood alcohol, kind of.

48:57.360 --> 48:59.240
 You think that's possible with computer vision?

48:59.240 --> 49:00.080
 Absolutely.

49:02.560 --> 49:04.520
 It's a, to me, it's an open question.

49:04.520 --> 49:06.600
 I haven't looked into too much.

49:06.600 --> 49:08.440
 Actually, I quite seriously looked at the literature.

49:08.440 --> 49:10.840
 It's not obvious to me that from the eyes and so on,

49:10.840 --> 49:11.680
 you can tell.

49:11.680 --> 49:13.440
 You might need stuff from the car as well.

49:13.440 --> 49:15.760
 You might need how they're controlling the car, right?

49:15.760 --> 49:17.360
 And that's fundamentally at the end of the day

49:17.360 --> 49:18.640
 what you care about.

49:18.640 --> 49:21.640
 But I think, especially when people are really drunk,

49:21.640 --> 49:23.640
 they're not controlling the car nearly as smoothly

49:23.640 --> 49:25.160
 as they would look at them walking, right?

49:25.160 --> 49:27.240
 They're, the car is like an extension of the body.

49:27.240 --> 49:29.360
 So I think you could totally detect.

49:29.360 --> 49:30.880
 And if you could fix people who are drunk,

49:30.880 --> 49:32.840
 distracted, asleep, if you fix those three.

49:32.840 --> 49:35.480
 Yeah, that's a huge, that's huge.

49:35.480 --> 49:38.240
 So what are the current limitations of OpenPilot?

49:38.240 --> 49:41.720
 What are the main problems that still need to be solved?

49:41.720 --> 49:45.440
 We're hopefully fixing a few of them in zero six.

49:45.440 --> 49:48.400
 We're not as good as autopilot at stop cars.

49:49.440 --> 49:54.240
 So if you're coming up to a red light at like 55,

49:55.200 --> 49:56.880
 so it's the radar stopped car problem,

49:56.880 --> 49:59.200
 which is responsible for two autopilot accidents,

49:59.200 --> 50:01.480
 it's hard to differentiate a stopped car

50:01.480 --> 50:03.640
 from a like signpost.

50:03.640 --> 50:05.320
 Yeah, static object.

50:05.320 --> 50:07.520
 So you have to fuse, you have to do this visually.

50:07.520 --> 50:09.600
 There's no way from the radar data to tell the difference.

50:09.600 --> 50:10.680
 Maybe you can make a map,

50:10.680 --> 50:13.840
 but I don't really believe in mapping at all anymore.

50:13.840 --> 50:14.920
 Wait, wait, wait, what?

50:14.920 --> 50:16.040
 You don't believe in mapping?

50:16.040 --> 50:16.880
 No.

50:16.880 --> 50:21.120
 So you're basically, the OpenPilot solution is saying,

50:21.120 --> 50:22.480
 react to the environment as you see it,

50:22.480 --> 50:24.480
 just like human doing beings do.

50:24.480 --> 50:26.200
 And then eventually when you want to do navigate

50:26.200 --> 50:30.400
 on OpenPilot, I'll train the net to look at ways.

50:30.400 --> 50:31.360
 I'll run ways in the background,

50:31.360 --> 50:32.200
 I'll train and come down a way.

50:32.200 --> 50:33.560
 Are you using GPS at all?

50:33.560 --> 50:34.840
 We use it to ground truth.

50:34.840 --> 50:37.440
 We use it to very carefully ground truth the paths.

50:37.440 --> 50:39.560
 We have a stack which can recover relative

50:39.560 --> 50:41.800
 to 10 centimeters over one minute.

50:41.800 --> 50:43.440
 And then we use that to ground truth

50:43.440 --> 50:45.880
 exactly where the car went in that local part

50:45.880 --> 50:47.800
 of the environment, but it's all local.

50:47.800 --> 50:49.160
 How are you testing in general?

50:49.160 --> 50:51.400
 Just for yourself, like experiments and stuff.

50:51.400 --> 50:54.000
 Where are you located?

50:54.000 --> 50:54.840
 San Diego.

50:54.840 --> 50:55.680
 San Diego.

50:55.680 --> 50:56.520
 Yeah.

50:56.520 --> 50:57.360
 Okay.

50:57.360 --> 50:59.760
 So you basically drive around there,

50:59.760 --> 51:02.200
 collect some data and watch the performance?

51:02.200 --> 51:04.800
 We have a simulator now and we have,

51:04.800 --> 51:06.440
 our simulator is really cool.

51:06.440 --> 51:08.120
 Our simulator is not,

51:08.120 --> 51:09.720
 it's not like a Unity based simulator.

51:09.720 --> 51:11.840
 Our simulator lets us load in real estate.

51:12.880 --> 51:13.720
 What do you mean?

51:13.720 --> 51:16.760
 We can load in a drive and simulate

51:16.760 --> 51:20.280
 what the system would have done on the historical data.

51:20.280 --> 51:21.480
 Ooh, nice.

51:22.520 --> 51:24.360
 Interesting.

51:24.360 --> 51:26.080
 Right now we're only using it for testing,

51:26.080 --> 51:28.640
 but as soon as we start using it for training.

51:28.640 --> 51:29.480
 That's it.

51:29.480 --> 51:30.840
 That's all set up for us.

51:30.840 --> 51:33.040
 What's your feeling about the real world versus simulation?

51:33.040 --> 51:34.320
 Do you like simulation for training?

51:34.320 --> 51:35.720
 If this moves to training?

51:35.720 --> 51:40.040
 So we have to distinguish two types of simulators, right?

51:40.040 --> 51:44.720
 There's a simulator that like is completely fake.

51:44.720 --> 51:46.720
 I could get my car to drive around in GTA.

51:47.800 --> 51:51.080
 I feel that this kind of simulator is useless.

51:51.880 --> 51:53.640
 You're never, there's so many.

51:54.640 --> 51:57.000
 My analogy here is like, okay, fine.

51:57.000 --> 51:59.920
 You're not solving the computer vision problem,

51:59.920 --> 52:02.440
 but you're solving the computer graphics problem.

52:02.440 --> 52:03.280
 Right.

52:03.280 --> 52:04.600
 And you don't think you can get very far

52:04.600 --> 52:08.040
 by creating ultra realistic graphics?

52:08.040 --> 52:10.360
 No, because you can create ultra realistic graphics

52:10.360 --> 52:13.160
 or the road, now create ultra realistic behavioral models

52:13.160 --> 52:14.600
 of the other cars.

52:14.600 --> 52:16.920
 Oh, well, I'll just use myself driving.

52:16.920 --> 52:18.280
 No, you won't.

52:18.280 --> 52:21.640
 You need real, you need actual human behavior

52:21.640 --> 52:23.320
 because that's what you're trying to learn.

52:23.320 --> 52:25.840
 The driving does not have a spec.

52:25.840 --> 52:29.920
 The definition of driving is what humans do when they drive.

52:29.920 --> 52:32.800
 Whatever Waymo does, I don't think it's driving.

52:32.800 --> 52:33.640
 Right.

52:33.640 --> 52:36.400
 Well, I think actually Waymo and others,

52:36.400 --> 52:38.920
 if there's any use for reinforcement learning,

52:38.920 --> 52:40.360
 I've seen it used quite well.

52:40.360 --> 52:41.640
 I studied pedestrians a lot too,

52:41.640 --> 52:44.360
 is try to train models from real data

52:44.360 --> 52:46.920
 of how pedestrians move and try to use reinforcement learning

52:46.920 --> 52:50.040
 models to make pedestrians move in human like ways.

52:50.040 --> 52:53.520
 By that point, you've already gone so many layers,

52:53.520 --> 52:55.680
 you detected a pedestrian.

52:55.680 --> 52:59.640
 Did you hand code the feature vector of their state?

52:59.640 --> 53:00.480
 Right.

53:00.480 --> 53:02.880
 Did you guys learn anything from computer vision

53:02.880 --> 53:04.600
 before deep learning?

53:04.600 --> 53:07.160
 Well, okay, I feel like this is...

53:07.160 --> 53:10.840
 So perception to you is the sticking point.

53:10.840 --> 53:13.760
 I mean, what's the hardest part of the stack here?

53:13.760 --> 53:18.760
 There is no human understandable feature vector

53:19.680 --> 53:22.000
 separating perception and planning.

53:23.040 --> 53:25.120
 That's the best way I can put that.

53:25.120 --> 53:25.960
 There is no...

53:25.960 --> 53:29.600
 So it's all together and it's a joint problem.

53:29.600 --> 53:31.480
 So you can take localization.

53:31.480 --> 53:32.960
 Localization and planning,

53:32.960 --> 53:34.760
 there is a human understandable feature vector

53:34.760 --> 53:36.000
 between these two things.

53:36.000 --> 53:38.720
 I mean, okay, so I have like three degrees position,

53:38.720 --> 53:40.560
 three degrees orientation and those derivatives,

53:40.560 --> 53:42.000
 maybe those second derivatives, right?

53:42.000 --> 53:44.520
 That's human understandable, that's physical.

53:44.520 --> 53:48.560
 The between perception and planning.

53:49.520 --> 53:53.600
 So like Waymo has a perception stack and then a planner.

53:53.600 --> 53:55.560
 And one of the things Waymo does right

53:55.560 --> 54:00.000
 is they have a simulator that can separate those two.

54:00.000 --> 54:02.920
 They can like replay their perception data

54:02.920 --> 54:03.920
 and test their system,

54:03.920 --> 54:04.880
 which is what I'm talking about

54:04.880 --> 54:06.520
 about like the two different kinds of simulators.

54:06.520 --> 54:08.240
 There's the kind that can work on real data

54:08.240 --> 54:10.920
 and there's the kind that can't work on real data.

54:10.920 --> 54:13.880
 Now, the problem is that I don't think

54:13.880 --> 54:16.160
 you can hand code a feature vector, right?

54:16.160 --> 54:17.360
 Like you have some list of like,

54:17.360 --> 54:19.040
 well, here's my list of cars in the scenes.

54:19.040 --> 54:21.280
 Here's my list of pedestrians in the scene.

54:21.280 --> 54:23.240
 This isn't what humans are doing.

54:23.240 --> 54:24.920
 What are humans doing?

54:24.920 --> 54:25.760
 Global.

54:27.200 --> 54:28.040
 Some, some.

54:28.040 --> 54:31.960
 You're saying that's too difficult to hand engineer.

54:31.960 --> 54:34.120
 I'm saying that there is no state vector.

54:34.120 --> 54:36.560
 Given a perfect, I could give you the best team

54:36.560 --> 54:38.520
 of engineers in the world to build a perception system

54:38.520 --> 54:40.640
 and the best team to build a planner.

54:40.640 --> 54:42.640
 All you have to do is define the state vector

54:42.640 --> 54:43.960
 that separates those two.

54:43.960 --> 54:48.560
 I'm missing the state vector that separates those two.

54:48.560 --> 54:49.400
 What do you mean?

54:49.400 --> 54:54.000
 So what is the output of your perception system?

54:54.000 --> 54:56.880
 Output of the perception system.

54:56.880 --> 55:01.560
 It's, there's, okay, well, there's several ways to do it.

55:01.560 --> 55:03.840
 One is the slam component is localization.

55:03.840 --> 55:05.920
 The other is drivable area, drivable space.

55:05.920 --> 55:06.760
 Drivable space, yep.

55:06.760 --> 55:09.000
 And then there's the different objects in the scene.

55:09.000 --> 55:09.840
 Yep.

55:11.000 --> 55:16.000
 And different objects in the scene over time maybe

55:16.000 --> 55:18.720
 to give you input to then try to start

55:18.720 --> 55:21.560
 modeling the trajectories of those objects.

55:21.560 --> 55:22.400
 Sure.

55:22.400 --> 55:23.240
 That's it.

55:23.240 --> 55:25.160
 I can give you a concrete example of something you missed.

55:25.160 --> 55:26.000
 What's that?

55:26.000 --> 55:28.640
 So say there's a bush in the scene.

55:28.640 --> 55:30.920
 Humans understand that when they see this bush

55:30.920 --> 55:34.680
 that there may or may not be a car behind that bush.

55:34.680 --> 55:37.280
 Drivable area and a list of objects does not include that.

55:37.280 --> 55:38.920
 Humans are doing this constantly

55:38.920 --> 55:40.920
 at the simplest intersections.

55:40.920 --> 55:43.880
 So now you have to talk about occluded area.

55:43.880 --> 55:44.720
 Right.

55:44.720 --> 55:47.800
 Right, but even that, what do you mean by occluded?

55:47.800 --> 55:49.640
 Okay, so I can't see it.

55:49.640 --> 55:51.840
 Well, if it's the other side of a house, I don't care.

55:51.840 --> 55:53.560
 What's the likelihood that there's a car

55:53.560 --> 55:55.280
 in that occluded area, right?

55:55.280 --> 55:58.080
 And if you say, okay, we'll add that,

55:58.080 --> 56:00.680
 I can come up with 10 more examples that you can't add.

56:01.680 --> 56:03.960
 Certainly occluded area would be something

56:03.960 --> 56:06.760
 that simulator would have because it's simulating

56:06.760 --> 56:11.320
 the entire, you know, occlusion is part of it.

56:11.320 --> 56:12.680
 Occlusion is part of a vision stack.

56:12.680 --> 56:13.520
 Vision stack.

56:13.520 --> 56:16.600
 But what I'm saying is if you have a hand engineered,

56:16.600 --> 56:20.040
 if your perception system output can be written

56:20.040 --> 56:22.240
 in a spec document, it is incomplete.

56:23.120 --> 56:27.800
 Yeah, I mean, I certainly, it's hard to argue with that

56:27.800 --> 56:30.120
 because in the end, that's going to be true.

56:30.120 --> 56:31.760
 Yeah, and I'll tell you what the output

56:31.760 --> 56:32.720
 of our perception system is.

56:32.720 --> 56:33.560
 What's that?

56:33.560 --> 56:37.120
 It's a 1024 dimensional vector.

56:37.120 --> 56:38.000
 Transparent neural net.

56:38.000 --> 56:39.000
 Oh, you know that.

56:39.000 --> 56:42.000
 No, that's the 1024 dimensions of who knows what.

56:43.520 --> 56:45.160
 Because it's operating on real data.

56:45.160 --> 56:47.000
 Yeah.

56:47.000 --> 56:48.320
 And that's the perception.

56:48.320 --> 56:50.360
 That's the perception state, right?

56:50.360 --> 56:53.520
 Think about an autoencoder for faces, right?

56:53.520 --> 56:54.720
 If you have an autoencoder for faces

56:54.720 --> 56:59.720
 and you say it has 256 dimensions in the middle,

56:59.720 --> 57:00.680
 and I'm taking a face over here

57:00.680 --> 57:02.800
 and projecting it to a face over here.

57:02.800 --> 57:05.360
 Can you hand label all 256 of those dimensions?

57:06.280 --> 57:09.240
 Well, no, but those are generated automatically.

57:09.240 --> 57:11.360
 But even if you tried to do it by hand,

57:11.360 --> 57:15.520
 could you come up with a spec between your encoder

57:15.520 --> 57:16.360
 and your decoder?

57:17.400 --> 57:20.720
 No, no, because it wasn't designed, but they're...

57:20.720 --> 57:22.600
 No, no, no, but if you could design it,

57:23.600 --> 57:26.480
 if you could design a face reconstructor system,

57:26.480 --> 57:28.080
 could you come up with a spec?

57:29.240 --> 57:32.320
 No, but I think we're missing here a little bit.

57:32.320 --> 57:35.080
 I think you're just being very poetic

57:35.080 --> 57:37.880
 about expressing a fundamental problem of simulators,

57:37.880 --> 57:41.640
 that they are going to be missing so much

57:42.480 --> 57:44.680
 that the feature of actually

57:44.680 --> 57:47.080
 would just look fundamentally different

57:47.080 --> 57:50.440
 from in the simulated world than the real world.

57:51.280 --> 57:53.800
 I'm not making a claim about simulators.

57:53.800 --> 57:57.120
 I'm making a claim about the spec division

57:57.120 --> 57:58.800
 between perception and planning.

57:58.800 --> 57:59.640
 And planning.

57:59.640 --> 58:00.840
 Even in your system.

58:00.840 --> 58:01.800
 Just in general.

58:01.800 --> 58:03.360
 Right, just in general.

58:03.360 --> 58:05.680
 If you're trying to build a car that drives,

58:05.680 --> 58:07.280
 if you're trying to hand code

58:07.280 --> 58:08.760
 the output of your perception system,

58:08.760 --> 58:10.960
 like saying, here's a list of all the cars in the scene.

58:10.960 --> 58:11.920
 Here's a list of all the people.

58:11.920 --> 58:13.120
 Here's a list of the occluded areas.

58:13.120 --> 58:14.920
 Here's a vector of drivable areas.

58:14.920 --> 58:16.600
 It's insufficient.

58:16.600 --> 58:18.000
 And if you start to believe that,

58:18.000 --> 58:20.840
 you realize that what Waymo and Cruz are doing is impossible.

58:20.840 --> 58:24.320
 Currently, what we're doing is the perception problem

58:24.320 --> 58:28.200
 is converting the scene into a chessboard.

58:29.200 --> 58:31.720
 And then you reason some basic reasoning

58:31.720 --> 58:33.400
 around that chessboard.

58:33.400 --> 58:38.080
 And you're saying that really there's a lot missing there.

58:38.080 --> 58:40.240
 First of all, why are we talking about this?

58:40.240 --> 58:42.840
 Because isn't this a full autonomy?

58:42.840 --> 58:44.720
 Is this something you think about?

58:44.720 --> 58:47.680
 Oh, I want to win self driving cars.

58:47.680 --> 58:52.680
 So your definition of win includes the full five.

58:53.680 --> 58:55.800
 I don't think level four is a real thing.

58:55.800 --> 58:59.720
 I want to build the AlphaGo of driving.

58:59.720 --> 59:04.720
 So AlphaGo is really end to end.

59:06.160 --> 59:07.000
 Yeah.

59:07.000 --> 59:09.840
 Is, yeah, it's end to end.

59:09.840 --> 59:12.480
 And do you think this whole problem,

59:12.480 --> 59:14.680
 is that also kind of what you're getting at

59:14.680 --> 59:16.640
 with the perception and the planning?

59:16.640 --> 59:19.440
 Is that this whole problem, the right way to do it,

59:19.440 --> 59:21.600
 is really to learn the entire thing?

59:21.600 --> 59:23.680
 I'll argue that not only is it the right way,

59:23.680 --> 59:27.640
 it's the only way that's going to exceed human performance.

59:27.640 --> 59:29.960
 Well, it's certainly true for Go.

59:29.960 --> 59:31.520
 Everyone who tried to hand code Go things

59:31.520 --> 59:33.440
 built human inferior things.

59:33.440 --> 59:36.200
 And then someone came along and wrote some 10,000 line thing

59:36.200 --> 59:39.800
 that doesn't know anything about Go that beat everybody.

59:39.800 --> 59:41.080
 It's 10,000 lines.

59:41.080 --> 59:43.360
 True, in that sense.

59:43.360 --> 59:47.520
 The open question then that maybe I can ask you

59:47.520 --> 59:52.520
 is driving is much harder than Go.

59:53.440 --> 59:56.240
 The open question is how much harder?

59:56.240 --> 59:59.480
 So how, because I think the Elon Musk approach here

59:59.480 --> 1:00:01.600
 with planning and perception is similar

1:00:01.600 --> 1:00:02.960
 to what you're describing,

1:00:02.960 --> 1:00:07.960
 which is really turning into not some kind of modular thing,

1:00:08.280 --> 1:00:11.120
 but really do formulate as a learning problem

1:00:11.120 --> 1:00:13.360
 and solve the learning problem with scale.

1:00:13.360 --> 1:00:17.120
 So how many years, put one,

1:00:17.120 --> 1:00:18.880
 how many years would it take to solve this problem

1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:21.680
 or just how hard is this freaking problem?

1:00:21.680 --> 1:00:24.560
 Well, the cool thing is,

1:00:24.560 --> 1:00:27.800
 I think there's a lot of value

1:00:27.800 --> 1:00:29.840
 that we can deliver along the way.

1:00:30.840 --> 1:00:35.840
 I think that you can build lame keeping assist

1:00:36.600 --> 1:00:41.440
 actually plus adaptive cruise control plus, okay,

1:00:41.440 --> 1:00:46.000
 looking at ways extends to like all of driving.

1:00:46.000 --> 1:00:47.920
 Yeah, most of driving, right?

1:00:47.920 --> 1:00:49.760
 Oh, your adaptive cruise control treats red lights

1:00:49.760 --> 1:00:51.200
 like cars, okay.

1:00:51.200 --> 1:00:53.480
 So let's jump around with you mentioned

1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:55.760
 that you didn't like navigate an autopilot.

1:00:55.760 --> 1:00:57.760
 What advice, how would you make it better?

1:00:57.760 --> 1:01:00.560
 Do you think as a feature that if it's done really well,

1:01:00.560 --> 1:01:02.360
 it's a good feature?

1:01:02.360 --> 1:01:07.360
 I think that it's too reliant on like hand coded hacks

1:01:07.520 --> 1:01:10.400
 for like, how does navigate an autopilot do a lane change?

1:01:10.400 --> 1:01:13.400
 It actually does the same lane change every time

1:01:13.400 --> 1:01:14.320
 and it feels mechanical.

1:01:14.320 --> 1:01:15.920
 Humans do different lane changes.

1:01:15.920 --> 1:01:17.360
 Humans, sometimes we'll do a slow one,

1:01:17.360 --> 1:01:18.920
 sometimes do a fast one.

1:01:18.920 --> 1:01:20.880
 Navigate an autopilot at least every time I use it

1:01:20.880 --> 1:01:23.040
 is it the identical lane change?

1:01:23.040 --> 1:01:24.280
 How do you learn?

1:01:24.280 --> 1:01:26.800
 I mean, this is a fundamental thing actually

1:01:26.800 --> 1:01:30.400
 is the breaking and accelerating,

1:01:30.400 --> 1:01:33.960
 something that still, Tesla probably does it better

1:01:33.960 --> 1:01:36.800
 than most cars, but it still doesn't do a great job

1:01:36.800 --> 1:01:39.960
 of creating a comfortable natural experience

1:01:39.960 --> 1:01:42.680
 and navigate an autopilot is just lane changes

1:01:42.680 --> 1:01:44.120
 and extension of that.

1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:49.120
 So how do you learn to do natural lane change?

1:01:49.120 --> 1:01:52.920
 So we have it and I can talk about how it works.

1:01:52.920 --> 1:01:57.920
 So I feel that we have the solution for lateral

1:01:58.720 --> 1:02:00.640
 but we don't yet have the solution for longitudinal.

1:02:00.640 --> 1:02:03.360
 There's a few reasons longitudinal is harder than lateral.

1:02:03.360 --> 1:02:06.920
 The lane change component, the way that we train on it

1:02:06.920 --> 1:02:10.840
 very simply is like our model has an input

1:02:10.840 --> 1:02:14.040
 for whether it's doing a lane change or not.

1:02:14.040 --> 1:02:16.360
 And then when we train the end to end model,

1:02:16.360 --> 1:02:19.560
 we hand label all the lane changes because you have to.

1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:22.440
 I've struggled a long time about not wanting to do that

1:02:22.440 --> 1:02:24.280
 but I think you have to.

1:02:24.280 --> 1:02:25.320
 Or the training data.

1:02:25.320 --> 1:02:26.520
 For the training data, right?

1:02:26.520 --> 1:02:28.280
 We actually have an automatic ground truth

1:02:28.280 --> 1:02:30.600
 or which automatically labels all the lane changes.

1:02:30.600 --> 1:02:31.680
 Was that possible?

1:02:31.680 --> 1:02:32.720
 To automatically label lane changes?

1:02:32.720 --> 1:02:33.560
 Yeah.

1:02:33.560 --> 1:02:34.800
 And detect the lane I see when it crosses it, right?

1:02:34.800 --> 1:02:36.680
 And I don't have to get that high percent accuracy

1:02:36.680 --> 1:02:38.080
 but it's like 95 good enough.

1:02:38.080 --> 1:02:38.960
 Okay.

1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:43.200
 Now I set the bit when it's doing the lane change

1:02:43.200 --> 1:02:44.840
 in the end to end learning.

1:02:44.840 --> 1:02:47.920
 And then I set it to zero when it's not doing a lane change.

1:02:47.920 --> 1:02:49.720
 So now if I want us to do a lane change a test time,

1:02:49.720 --> 1:02:52.360
 I just put the bit to a one and it'll do a lane change.

1:02:52.360 --> 1:02:54.640
 Yeah, but so if you look at the space of lane change,

1:02:54.640 --> 1:02:57.320
 you know some percentage, not a hundred percent,

1:02:57.320 --> 1:03:01.120
 that we make as humans is not a pleasant experience

1:03:01.120 --> 1:03:02.800
 because we messed some part of it up.

1:03:02.800 --> 1:03:04.320
 It's nerve wracking to change.

1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:05.760
 If you look, you have to see,

1:03:05.760 --> 1:03:06.920
 it has to accelerate.

1:03:06.920 --> 1:03:09.920
 How do we label the ones that are natural and feel good?

1:03:09.920 --> 1:03:11.560
 You know, that's the,

1:03:11.560 --> 1:03:13.360
 because that's your ultimate criticism,

1:03:13.360 --> 1:03:17.000
 the current navigate and autopilot just doesn't feel good.

1:03:17.000 --> 1:03:18.520
 Well, the current navigate and autopilot

1:03:18.520 --> 1:03:21.720
 is a hand coded policy written by an engineer in a room

1:03:21.720 --> 1:03:25.080
 who probably went out and tested it a few times on the 280.

1:03:25.080 --> 1:03:28.560
 Probably a more, a better version of that.

1:03:28.560 --> 1:03:29.400
 But yes.

1:03:29.400 --> 1:03:30.560
 That's how we would have written it.

1:03:30.560 --> 1:03:31.400
 Yeah.

1:03:31.400 --> 1:03:33.480
 Maybe Tesla did a Tesla, they tested it in.

1:03:33.480 --> 1:03:34.920
 That might have been two engineers.

1:03:34.920 --> 1:03:35.760
 Two engineers.

1:03:35.760 --> 1:03:37.400
 Yeah.

1:03:37.400 --> 1:03:40.120
 No, but so if you learn the lane change,

1:03:40.120 --> 1:03:42.480
 if you learn how to do a lane change from data,

1:03:42.480 --> 1:03:44.680
 just like you have a label that says lane change

1:03:44.680 --> 1:03:48.040
 and then you put it in when you want it to do the lane change,

1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:49.640
 it'll automatically do the lane change

1:03:49.640 --> 1:03:51.600
 that's appropriate for the situation.

1:03:51.600 --> 1:03:54.720
 Now, to get at the problem of some humans

1:03:54.720 --> 1:03:55.960
 do bad lane changes,

1:03:57.400 --> 1:03:59.920
 we haven't worked too much on this problem yet.

1:03:59.920 --> 1:04:03.120
 It's not that much of a problem in practice.

1:04:03.120 --> 1:04:06.160
 My theory is that all good drivers are good in the same way

1:04:06.160 --> 1:04:08.440
 and all bad drivers are bad in different ways.

1:04:09.360 --> 1:04:11.320
 And we've seen some data to back this up.

1:04:11.320 --> 1:04:12.400
 Well, beautifully put.

1:04:12.400 --> 1:04:16.560
 So you just basically, if that's true hypothesis,

1:04:16.560 --> 1:04:19.920
 then your task is to discover the good drivers.

1:04:19.920 --> 1:04:21.800
 The good drivers stand out

1:04:21.800 --> 1:04:23.360
 because they're in one cluster

1:04:23.360 --> 1:04:25.200
 and the bad drivers are scattered all over the place

1:04:25.200 --> 1:04:27.240
 and your net learns the cluster.

1:04:27.240 --> 1:04:28.080
 Yeah.

1:04:28.080 --> 1:04:30.800
 So you just learn from the good drivers

1:04:30.800 --> 1:04:32.200
 and they're easy to cluster.

1:04:33.200 --> 1:04:34.240
 In fact, we learned from all of them

1:04:34.240 --> 1:04:35.840
 and the net automatically learns the policy

1:04:35.840 --> 1:04:36.920
 that's like the majority.

1:04:36.920 --> 1:04:38.440
 But we'll eventually probably have to build some out.

1:04:38.440 --> 1:04:41.560
 So if that theory is true, I hope it's true

1:04:41.560 --> 1:04:46.440
 because the counter theory is there is many clusters,

1:04:49.480 --> 1:04:53.680
 maybe arbitrarily many clusters of good drivers.

1:04:53.680 --> 1:04:55.840
 Because if there's one cluster of good drivers,

1:04:55.840 --> 1:04:57.600
 you can at least discover a set of policies.

1:04:57.600 --> 1:04:59.000
 You can learn a set of policies

1:04:59.000 --> 1:05:00.640
 which would be good universally.

1:05:00.640 --> 1:05:01.640
 Yeah.

1:05:01.640 --> 1:05:04.560
 That would be nice if it's true.

1:05:04.560 --> 1:05:06.560
 And you're saying that there is some evidence that...

1:05:06.560 --> 1:05:09.720
 Let's say lane changes can be clustered into four clusters.

1:05:09.720 --> 1:05:10.560
 Right.

1:05:10.560 --> 1:05:12.040
 There's a finite level of...

1:05:12.040 --> 1:05:15.280
 I would argue that all four of those are good clusters.

1:05:15.280 --> 1:05:18.360
 All the things that are random are noise and probably bad.

1:05:18.360 --> 1:05:20.360
 And which one of the four you pick?

1:05:20.360 --> 1:05:21.920
 Or maybe it's 10 or maybe it's 20.

1:05:21.920 --> 1:05:22.760
 You can learn that.

1:05:22.760 --> 1:05:23.800
 It's context dependent.

1:05:23.800 --> 1:05:25.040
 It depends on the scene.

1:05:26.760 --> 1:05:30.440
 And the hope is it's not too dependent on the driver.

1:05:31.400 --> 1:05:34.240
 Yeah, the hope is that it all washes out.

1:05:34.240 --> 1:05:36.960
 The hope is that the distribution is not bimodal.

1:05:36.960 --> 1:05:39.080
 The hope is that it's a nice Gaussian.

1:05:39.080 --> 1:05:41.640
 So what advice would you give to Tesla?

1:05:41.640 --> 1:05:45.000
 How to fix, how to improve, navigate an autopilot?

1:05:45.000 --> 1:05:48.240
 That's the lessons that you've learned from Kamii.

1:05:48.240 --> 1:05:50.560
 The only real advice I would give to Tesla

1:05:50.560 --> 1:05:52.920
 is please put driver monitoring in your cars.

1:05:53.920 --> 1:05:55.160
 With respect to improving it.

1:05:55.160 --> 1:05:56.000
 You can't do that anymore.

1:05:56.000 --> 1:05:57.280
 I started to interrupt.

1:05:57.280 --> 1:06:01.760
 But there's a practical nature of many of hundreds of thousands

1:06:01.760 --> 1:06:05.760
 of cars being produced that don't have a good driver facing camera.

1:06:05.760 --> 1:06:07.520
 The Model 3 has a selfie cam.

1:06:07.520 --> 1:06:08.680
 Is it not good enough?

1:06:08.680 --> 1:06:10.800
 Did they not have put IR LEDs for night?

1:06:10.800 --> 1:06:11.640
 That's a good question.

1:06:11.640 --> 1:06:13.360
 But I do know that it's fish eye

1:06:13.360 --> 1:06:15.800
 and it's relatively low resolution.

1:06:15.800 --> 1:06:16.760
 So it's really not designed.

1:06:16.760 --> 1:06:18.760
 It wasn't designed for driver monitoring.

1:06:18.760 --> 1:06:21.760
 You can hope that you can kind of scrape up

1:06:21.760 --> 1:06:24.400
 and have something from it.

1:06:24.400 --> 1:06:27.520
 But why didn't they put it in today?

1:06:27.520 --> 1:06:28.280
 Put it in today.

1:06:28.280 --> 1:06:29.520
 Put it in today.

1:06:29.520 --> 1:06:31.520
 Every time I've heard Carpathian talk about the problem

1:06:31.520 --> 1:06:33.240
 and talking about like software 2.0

1:06:33.240 --> 1:06:35.240
 and how the machine learning is gobbling up everything,

1:06:35.240 --> 1:06:37.440
 I think this is absolutely the right strategy.

1:06:37.440 --> 1:06:40.160
 I think that he didn't write and navigate on autopilot.

1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.240
 I think somebody else did and kind of hacked it on top of that stuff.

1:06:43.240 --> 1:06:45.680
 I think when Carpathian says, wait a second,

1:06:45.680 --> 1:06:47.440
 why did we hand code this lane change policy

1:06:47.440 --> 1:06:48.360
 with all these magic numbers?

1:06:48.360 --> 1:06:49.360
 We're going to learn it from data.

1:06:49.360 --> 1:06:49.840
 They'll fix it.

1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:51.040
 They already know what to do there.

1:06:51.040 --> 1:06:54.360
 Well, that's Andre's job is to turn everything

1:06:54.360 --> 1:06:57.480
 into a learning problem and collect a huge amount of data.

1:06:57.480 --> 1:07:01.120
 The reality is, though, not every problem

1:07:01.120 --> 1:07:04.080
 can be turned into a learning problem in the short term.

1:07:04.080 --> 1:07:07.280
 In the end, everything will be a learning problem.

1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:12.880
 The reality is, like if you want to build L5 vehicles today,

1:07:12.880 --> 1:07:15.600
 it will likely involve no learning.

1:07:15.600 --> 1:07:20.320
 And that's the reality is, so at which point does learning start?

1:07:20.320 --> 1:07:23.480
 It's the crutch statement that LiDAR is a crutch.

1:07:23.480 --> 1:07:27.240
 Which point will learning get up to part of human performance?

1:07:27.240 --> 1:07:31.960
 It's over human performance on ImageNet, classification,

1:07:31.960 --> 1:07:34.000
 on driving, it's a question still.

1:07:34.000 --> 1:07:35.760
 It is a question.

1:07:35.760 --> 1:07:39.160
 I'll say this, I'm here to play for 10 years.

1:07:39.160 --> 1:07:40.280
 I'm not here to try to.

1:07:40.280 --> 1:07:42.960
 I'm here to play for 10 years and make money along the way.

1:07:42.960 --> 1:07:45.040
 I'm not here to try to promise people

1:07:45.040 --> 1:07:47.600
 that I'm going to have my L5 taxi network up and working

1:07:47.600 --> 1:07:48.200
 in two years.

1:07:48.200 --> 1:07:49.400
 Do you think that was a mistake?

1:07:49.400 --> 1:07:50.520
 Yes.

1:07:50.520 --> 1:07:53.160
 What do you think was the motivation behind saying

1:07:53.160 --> 1:07:56.640
 that other companies are also promising L5 vehicles

1:07:56.640 --> 1:08:01.880
 with their different approaches in 2020, 2021, 2022?

1:08:01.880 --> 1:08:05.720
 If anybody would like to bet me that those things do not pan out,

1:08:05.720 --> 1:08:07.000
 I will bet you.

1:08:07.000 --> 1:08:10.800
 Even money, even money, I'll bet you as much as you want.

1:08:10.800 --> 1:08:13.600
 So are you worried about what's going to happen?

1:08:13.600 --> 1:08:16.040
 Because you're not in full agreement on that.

1:08:16.040 --> 1:08:19.160
 What's going to happen when 2022, 2021 come around

1:08:19.160 --> 1:08:22.800
 and nobody has fleets of autonomous vehicles?

1:08:22.800 --> 1:08:25.000
 Well, you can look at the history.

1:08:25.000 --> 1:08:26.880
 If you go back five years ago, they

1:08:26.880 --> 1:08:29.880
 were all promised by 2018 and 2017.

1:08:29.880 --> 1:08:32.200
 But they weren't that strong of promises.

1:08:32.200 --> 1:08:36.240
 I mean, Ford really declared.

1:08:36.240 --> 1:08:40.560
 I think not many have declared as definitively

1:08:40.560 --> 1:08:42.600
 as they have now these dates.

1:08:42.600 --> 1:08:43.320
 Well, OK.

1:08:43.320 --> 1:08:45.040
 So let's separate L4 and L5.

1:08:45.040 --> 1:08:46.800
 Do I think that it's possible for Waymo

1:08:46.800 --> 1:08:50.960
 to continue to hack on their system

1:08:50.960 --> 1:08:53.400
 until it gets to level four in Chandler, Arizona?

1:08:53.400 --> 1:08:55.040
 Yes.

1:08:55.040 --> 1:08:56.800
 No safety driver?

1:08:56.800 --> 1:08:57.600
 Chandler, Arizona?

1:08:57.600 --> 1:08:59.600
 Yeah.

1:08:59.600 --> 1:09:02.440
 By which year are we talking about?

1:09:02.440 --> 1:09:06.120
 Oh, I even think that's possible by like 2020, 2021.

1:09:06.120 --> 1:09:09.480
 But level four, Chandler, Arizona, not level five,

1:09:09.480 --> 1:09:11.480
 New York City.

1:09:11.480 --> 1:09:15.920
 Level four, meaning some very defined streets.

1:09:15.920 --> 1:09:17.400
 It works out really well.

1:09:17.400 --> 1:09:18.280
 Very defined streets.

1:09:18.280 --> 1:09:20.680
 And then practically, these streets are pretty empty.

1:09:20.680 --> 1:09:24.680
 If most of the streets are covered in Waymos,

1:09:24.680 --> 1:09:28.360
 Waymo can kind of change the definition of what driving is.

1:09:28.360 --> 1:09:28.920
 Right?

1:09:28.920 --> 1:09:31.720
 If your self driving network is the majority

1:09:31.720 --> 1:09:34.120
 of cars in an area, they only need

1:09:34.120 --> 1:09:35.720
 to be safe with respect to each other,

1:09:35.720 --> 1:09:38.640
 and all the humans will need to learn to adapt to them.

1:09:38.640 --> 1:09:41.120
 Now go drive in downtown New York.

1:09:41.120 --> 1:09:42.200
 Oh, yeah, that's.

1:09:42.200 --> 1:09:43.440
 I mean, already.

1:09:43.440 --> 1:09:46.040
 You can talk about autonomy and like on farms,

1:09:46.040 --> 1:09:48.520
 it already works great, because you can really just

1:09:48.520 --> 1:09:51.320
 follow the GPS line.

1:09:51.320 --> 1:09:56.800
 So what does success look like for Kama AI?

1:09:56.800 --> 1:09:58.200
 What are the milestones like where

1:09:58.200 --> 1:09:59.800
 you can sit back with some champagne

1:09:59.800 --> 1:10:04.120
 and say, we did it, boys and girls?

1:10:04.120 --> 1:10:06.320
 Well, it's never over.

1:10:06.320 --> 1:10:07.800
 Yeah, but don't be so.

1:10:07.800 --> 1:10:10.400
 You must drink champagne every time you celebrate.

1:10:10.400 --> 1:10:11.440
 So what is good?

1:10:11.440 --> 1:10:13.160
 What are some wins?

1:10:13.160 --> 1:10:19.480
 A big milestone that we're hoping for by mid next year

1:10:19.480 --> 1:10:20.680
 is profitability of the company.

1:10:20.680 --> 1:10:28.560
 And we're going to have to revisit the idea of selling

1:10:28.560 --> 1:10:30.280
 a consumer product.

1:10:30.280 --> 1:10:32.720
 But it's not going to be like the Kama One.

1:10:32.720 --> 1:10:36.240
 When we do it, it's going to be perfect.

1:10:36.240 --> 1:10:39.600
 OpenPilot has gotten so much better in the last two years.

1:10:39.600 --> 1:10:41.680
 We're going to have a few features.

1:10:41.680 --> 1:10:43.760
 We're going to have 100% driver monitoring.

1:10:43.760 --> 1:10:46.720
 We're going to disable no safety features in the car.

1:10:46.720 --> 1:10:48.760
 Actually, I think it'd be really cool what we're doing right

1:10:48.760 --> 1:10:51.600
 now, our project this week is we're analyzing the data set

1:10:51.600 --> 1:10:53.240
 and looking for all the AEB triggers

1:10:53.240 --> 1:10:55.640
 from the manufacturer systems.

1:10:55.640 --> 1:10:59.440
 We have better data set on that than the manufacturers.

1:10:59.440 --> 1:11:02.960
 How much does Toyota have 10 million miles of real world

1:11:02.960 --> 1:11:05.360
 driving to know how many times they're AEB triggered?

1:11:05.360 --> 1:11:10.880
 So let me give you, because you asked, financial advice.

1:11:10.880 --> 1:11:12.440
 Because I work with a lot of automakers

1:11:12.440 --> 1:11:15.840
 and one possible source of money for you,

1:11:15.840 --> 1:11:21.400
 which I'll be excited to see you take on, is basically

1:11:21.400 --> 1:11:29.120
 selling the data, which is something that most people,

1:11:29.120 --> 1:11:31.800
 and not selling in a way where here, here at Automaker,

1:11:31.800 --> 1:11:33.000
 but creating.

1:11:33.000 --> 1:11:35.480
 We've done this actually at MIT, not for money purposes,

1:11:35.480 --> 1:11:37.760
 but you could do it for significant money purposes

1:11:37.760 --> 1:11:39.440
 and make the world a better place

1:11:39.440 --> 1:11:44.240
 by creating a consortia where automakers would pay in

1:11:44.240 --> 1:11:46.960
 and then they get to have free access to the data.

1:11:46.960 --> 1:11:52.400
 And I think a lot of people are really hungry for that

1:11:52.400 --> 1:11:54.200
 and would pay significant amount of money for it.

1:11:54.200 --> 1:11:55.400
 Here's the problem with that.

1:11:55.400 --> 1:11:56.840
 I like this idea all in theory.

1:11:56.840 --> 1:11:59.640
 It'd be very easy for me to give them access to my servers.

1:11:59.640 --> 1:12:02.280
 And we already have all open source tools to access this data.

1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:03.400
 It's in a great format.

1:12:03.400 --> 1:12:05.560
 We have a great pipeline.

1:12:05.560 --> 1:12:07.120
 But they're going to put me in the room

1:12:07.120 --> 1:12:10.120
 with some business development guy.

1:12:10.120 --> 1:12:12.400
 And I'm going to have to talk to this guy.

1:12:12.400 --> 1:12:15.040
 And he's not going to know most of the words I'm saying.

1:12:15.040 --> 1:12:17.280
 I'm not willing to tolerate that.

1:12:17.280 --> 1:12:18.840
 OK, Mick Jagger.

1:12:18.840 --> 1:12:19.800
 No, no, no, no.

1:12:19.800 --> 1:12:21.040
 But I think I agree with you.

1:12:21.040 --> 1:12:21.720
 I'm the same way.

1:12:21.720 --> 1:12:22.960
 But you just tell them the terms

1:12:22.960 --> 1:12:24.640
 and there's no discussion needed.

1:12:24.640 --> 1:12:30.480
 If I could just tell them the terms, then like, all right.

1:12:30.480 --> 1:12:31.600
 Who wants access to my data?

1:12:31.600 --> 1:12:36.680
 I will sell it to you for, let's say,

1:12:36.680 --> 1:12:37.640
 you want a subscription?

1:12:37.640 --> 1:12:40.680
 I'll sell you for 100k a month.

1:12:40.680 --> 1:12:41.200
 Anyone?

1:12:41.200 --> 1:12:42.000
 100k a month?

1:12:42.000 --> 1:12:43.040
 100k a month?

1:12:43.040 --> 1:12:45.080
 I'll give you access to the data subscription?

1:12:45.080 --> 1:12:45.680
 Yeah.

1:12:45.680 --> 1:12:46.680
 Yeah, I think that's kind of fair.

1:12:46.680 --> 1:12:48.440
 Came up with that number off the top of my head.

1:12:48.440 --> 1:12:50.840
 If somebody sends me like a three line email where it's like,

1:12:50.840 --> 1:12:54.000
 we would like to pay 100k a month to get access to your data.

1:12:54.000 --> 1:12:56.160
 We would agree to like reasonable privacy terms

1:12:56.160 --> 1:12:58.360
 of the people who are in the data set.

1:12:58.360 --> 1:12:59.520
 I would be happy to do it.

1:12:59.520 --> 1:13:01.200
 But that's not going to be the email.

1:13:01.200 --> 1:13:03.120
 The email is going to be, hey, do you

1:13:03.120 --> 1:13:05.560
 have some time in the next month where we can sit down

1:13:05.560 --> 1:13:07.000
 and we can, I don't have time for that.

1:13:07.000 --> 1:13:08.360
 We're moving too fast.

1:13:08.360 --> 1:13:10.040
 You could politely respond to that email,

1:13:10.040 --> 1:13:13.240
 but not saying I don't have any time for your bullshit.

1:13:13.240 --> 1:13:15.440
 You say, oh, well, unfortunately, these are the terms.

1:13:15.440 --> 1:13:19.280
 And so this is what we try to, we brought the cost down

1:13:19.280 --> 1:13:22.320
 for you in order to minimize the friction, the communication.

1:13:22.320 --> 1:13:22.920
 Yeah, absolutely.

1:13:22.920 --> 1:13:26.720
 Here's the whatever it is, $1, $2 million a year.

1:13:26.720 --> 1:13:28.880
 And you have access.

1:13:28.880 --> 1:13:31.440
 And it's not like I get that email from like,

1:13:31.440 --> 1:13:32.720
 but OK, am I going to reach out?

1:13:32.720 --> 1:13:34.200
 Am I going to hire a business development person

1:13:34.200 --> 1:13:35.840
 who's going to reach out to the automakers?

1:13:35.840 --> 1:13:36.480
 No way.

1:13:36.480 --> 1:13:36.880
 Yeah.

1:13:36.880 --> 1:13:37.840
 OK, I got you.

1:13:37.840 --> 1:13:38.520
 I admire.

1:13:38.520 --> 1:13:39.680
 If they reached into me, I'm not

1:13:39.680 --> 1:13:40.600
 going to ignore the email.

1:13:40.600 --> 1:13:42.160
 I'll come back with something like, yeah,

1:13:42.160 --> 1:13:44.560
 if you're willing to pay $100,000 for access to the data,

1:13:44.560 --> 1:13:46.080
 I'm happy to set that up.

1:13:46.080 --> 1:13:48.200
 That's worth my engineering time.

1:13:48.200 --> 1:13:49.520
 That's actually quite insightful of you.

1:13:49.520 --> 1:13:50.440
 You're right.

1:13:50.440 --> 1:13:52.480
 Probably because many of the automakers

1:13:52.480 --> 1:13:54.480
 are quite a bit old school, there

1:13:54.480 --> 1:13:56.200
 will be a need to reach out.

1:13:56.200 --> 1:13:58.440
 And they want it, but there will need

1:13:58.440 --> 1:13:59.800
 to be some communication.

1:13:59.800 --> 1:14:00.160
 You're right.

1:14:00.160 --> 1:14:06.760
 Mobileye circa 2015 had the lowest R&D spend of any chipmaker.

1:14:06.760 --> 1:14:10.640
 Like per, and you look at all the people who work for them,

1:14:10.640 --> 1:14:12.120
 and it's all business development people

1:14:12.120 --> 1:14:15.320
 because the car companies are impossible to work with.

1:14:15.320 --> 1:14:17.880
 Yeah, so you have no patience for that,

1:14:17.880 --> 1:14:20.040
 and you're a legit Android, huh?

1:14:20.040 --> 1:14:21.440
 I have something to do, right?

1:14:21.440 --> 1:14:24.040
 Like, it's not like I don't mean to be a dick and say,

1:14:24.040 --> 1:14:25.920
 I don't have patience for that, but it's like,

1:14:25.920 --> 1:14:29.160
 that stuff doesn't help us with our goal of winning

1:14:29.160 --> 1:14:30.560
 self driving cars.

1:14:30.560 --> 1:14:33.800
 If I want money in the short term,

1:14:33.800 --> 1:14:38.040
 if I showed off the actual learning tech that we have,

1:14:38.040 --> 1:14:40.160
 it's somewhat sad.

1:14:40.160 --> 1:14:43.000
 It's years and years ahead of everybody else's.

1:14:43.000 --> 1:14:43.720
 Maybe not Tesla's.

1:14:43.720 --> 1:14:45.720
 I think Tesla has similar stuff to us, actually.

1:14:45.720 --> 1:14:47.640
 I think Tesla has similar stuff, but when you compare it

1:14:47.640 --> 1:14:50.920
 to what the Toyota Research Institute has,

1:14:50.920 --> 1:14:53.480
 you're not even close to what we have.

1:14:53.480 --> 1:14:55.840
 No comments, but I also can't.

1:14:55.840 --> 1:14:58.440
 I have to take your comments.

1:14:58.440 --> 1:15:01.960
 I intuitively believe you, but I have

1:15:01.960 --> 1:15:04.680
 to take it with a grain of salt because,

1:15:04.680 --> 1:15:07.440
 I mean, you are an inspiration because you basically

1:15:07.440 --> 1:15:10.000
 don't care about a lot of things that other companies care

1:15:10.000 --> 1:15:10.880
 about.

1:15:10.880 --> 1:15:16.600
 You don't try to bullshit, in a sense, like make up stuff,

1:15:16.600 --> 1:15:18.600
 so to drive up valuation.

1:15:18.600 --> 1:15:19.960
 You're really very real, and you're

1:15:19.960 --> 1:15:22.280
 trying to solve the problem, and I admire that a lot.

1:15:22.280 --> 1:15:26.520
 What I don't necessarily fully can't trust you on about your

1:15:26.520 --> 1:15:28.440
 respect is how good it is, right?

1:15:28.440 --> 1:15:33.320
 I can only, but I also know how bad others are.

1:15:33.320 --> 1:15:36.680
 I'll say two things about, trust, but verify, right?

1:15:36.680 --> 1:15:38.040
 I'll say two things about that.

1:15:38.040 --> 1:15:42.360
 One is try, get in a 2020 Corolla,

1:15:42.360 --> 1:15:46.680
 and try OpenPilot 0.6 when it comes out next month.

1:15:46.680 --> 1:15:48.400
 I think already, you'll look at this,

1:15:48.400 --> 1:15:51.400
 and you'll be like, this is already really good.

1:15:51.400 --> 1:15:54.240
 And then, I could be doing that all with hand labelers

1:15:54.240 --> 1:15:58.000
 and all with the same approach that Mobileye uses.

1:15:58.000 --> 1:16:00.040
 When we release a model that no longer

1:16:00.040 --> 1:16:05.000
 has the lanes in it, that only outputs a path,

1:16:05.000 --> 1:16:08.720
 then think about how we did that machine learning,

1:16:08.720 --> 1:16:10.080
 and then right away, when you see,

1:16:10.080 --> 1:16:11.240
 and that's going to be an OpenPilot,

1:16:11.240 --> 1:16:13.000
 that's going to be an OpenPilot before 1.0,

1:16:13.000 --> 1:16:14.400
 when you see that model, you'll know

1:16:14.400 --> 1:16:15.360
 that everything I'm saying is true,

1:16:15.360 --> 1:16:16.840
 because how else did I get that model?

1:16:16.840 --> 1:16:17.320
 Good.

1:16:17.320 --> 1:16:19.240
 You know what I'm saying is true about the simulator.

1:16:19.240 --> 1:16:20.600
 Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is super exciting.

1:16:20.600 --> 1:16:22.680
 That's super exciting.

1:16:22.680 --> 1:16:25.760
 But I listened to your talk with Kyle,

1:16:25.760 --> 1:16:30.480
 and Kyle was originally building the aftermarket system,

1:16:30.480 --> 1:16:34.920
 and he gave up on it because of technical challenges,

1:16:34.920 --> 1:16:37.360
 because of the fact that he's going

1:16:37.360 --> 1:16:39.160
 to have to support 20 to 50 cars.

1:16:39.160 --> 1:16:41.120
 We support 45, because what is he

1:16:41.120 --> 1:16:43.440
 going to do when the manufacturer ABS system triggers?

1:16:43.440 --> 1:16:45.480
 We have alerts and warnings to deal with all of that

1:16:45.480 --> 1:16:48.400
 and all the cars, and how is he going to formally verify it?

1:16:48.400 --> 1:16:49.800
 Well, I got 10 million miles of data.

1:16:49.800 --> 1:16:53.240
 It's probably better verified than the spec.

1:16:53.240 --> 1:16:57.720
 Yeah, I'm glad you're here talking to me.

1:16:57.720 --> 1:17:01.120
 I'll remember this day, because it's interesting.

1:17:01.120 --> 1:17:04.160
 If you look at Kyle's from Cruise,

1:17:04.160 --> 1:17:06.320
 I'm sure they have a large number of business development

1:17:06.320 --> 1:17:10.200
 folks, and he's working with GM.

1:17:10.200 --> 1:17:13.280
 He could work with Argo AI, worked with Ford.

1:17:13.280 --> 1:17:18.520
 It's interesting, because chances that you fail businesswise,

1:17:18.520 --> 1:17:21.120
 like bankrupt, are pretty high.

1:17:21.120 --> 1:17:23.880
 And yet, it's the Android model,

1:17:23.880 --> 1:17:26.440
 is you're actually taking on the problem.

1:17:26.440 --> 1:17:28.160
 So that's really inspiring.

1:17:28.160 --> 1:17:30.920
 Well, I have a long term way for comedy to make money, too.

1:17:30.920 --> 1:17:34.400
 And one of the nice things when you really take on the problem,

1:17:34.400 --> 1:17:36.760
 which is my hope for autopilot, for example,

1:17:36.760 --> 1:17:41.040
 is things you don't expect, ways to make money,

1:17:41.040 --> 1:17:44.160
 or create value that you don't expect will pop up.

1:17:44.160 --> 1:17:48.560
 I've known how to do it since 2017 is the first time I said it.

1:17:48.560 --> 1:17:50.440
 Which part to know how to do which part?

1:17:50.440 --> 1:17:52.520
 Our long term plan is to be a car insurance company.

1:17:52.520 --> 1:17:53.160
 Insurance.

1:17:53.160 --> 1:17:55.320
 Yeah, I love it.

1:17:55.320 --> 1:17:56.680
 I make driving twice as safe.

1:17:56.680 --> 1:17:57.680
 Not only that, I have the best data

1:17:57.680 --> 1:18:00.040
 such to know who statistically is the safest drivers.

1:18:00.040 --> 1:18:02.160
 And oh, oh, we see you.

1:18:02.160 --> 1:18:03.720
 We see you driving unsafely.

1:18:03.720 --> 1:18:05.360
 We're not going to insure you.

1:18:05.360 --> 1:18:08.960
 And that causes a bifurcation in the market,

1:18:08.960 --> 1:18:10.920
 because the only people who can't get common insurance

1:18:10.920 --> 1:18:12.760
 or the bad drivers, Geico can insure them.

1:18:12.760 --> 1:18:15.360
 Their premiums are crazy high, our premiums are crazy low.

1:18:15.360 --> 1:18:16.240
 We win car insurance.

1:18:16.240 --> 1:18:18.120
 Take over that whole market.

1:18:18.120 --> 1:18:21.560
 OK, so if we win, if we win, but that's

1:18:21.560 --> 1:18:23.800
 I'm saying like how do you turn comma into a $10 billion

1:18:23.800 --> 1:18:24.640
 company is that.

1:18:24.640 --> 1:18:25.600
 That's right.

1:18:25.600 --> 1:18:30.000
 So you Elon Musk, who else?

1:18:30.000 --> 1:18:32.720
 Who else is thinking like this and working like this

1:18:32.720 --> 1:18:33.160
 in your view?

1:18:33.160 --> 1:18:34.800
 Who are the competitors?

1:18:34.800 --> 1:18:36.160
 Are there people seriously?

1:18:36.160 --> 1:18:39.480
 I don't think anyone that I'm aware of is seriously

1:18:39.480 --> 1:18:45.280
 taking on lane keeping, like to where it's a huge business that

1:18:45.280 --> 1:18:51.400
 turns eventually to full autonomy that then creates

1:18:51.400 --> 1:18:53.440
 other businesses on top of it and so on.

1:18:53.440 --> 1:18:56.480
 Thinks insurance, thinks all kinds of ideas like that.

1:18:56.480 --> 1:19:00.480
 Do you know anyone else thinking like this?

1:19:00.480 --> 1:19:02.200
 Not really.

1:19:02.200 --> 1:19:02.960
 That's interesting.

1:19:02.960 --> 1:19:06.560
 I mean, my sense is everybody turns to that in like four

1:19:06.560 --> 1:19:07.800
 or five years.

1:19:07.800 --> 1:19:11.240
 Like Ford, once the autonomy doesn't fall through.

1:19:11.240 --> 1:19:12.600
 But at this time.

1:19:12.600 --> 1:19:14.120
 Elon's the iOS.

1:19:14.120 --> 1:19:16.720
 By the way, he paved the way for all of us.

1:19:16.720 --> 1:19:18.000
 It's not iOS, true.

1:19:18.000 --> 1:19:21.520
 I would not be doing comma AI today if it was not

1:19:21.520 --> 1:19:23.480
 for those conversations with Elon.

1:19:23.480 --> 1:19:26.840
 And if it were not for him saying like,

1:19:26.840 --> 1:19:28.600
 I think he said like, well, obviously we're not

1:19:28.600 --> 1:19:31.280
 going to use LiDAR, we use cameras, humans use cameras.

1:19:31.280 --> 1:19:32.600
 So what do you think about that?

1:19:32.600 --> 1:19:33.880
 How important is LiDAR?

1:19:33.880 --> 1:19:36.960
 Everybody else's on L5 is using LiDAR.

1:19:36.960 --> 1:19:39.160
 What are your thoughts on his provocative statement

1:19:39.160 --> 1:19:41.320
 that LiDAR is a crutch?

1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:43.520
 See, sometimes they'll say dumb things like the driver

1:19:43.520 --> 1:19:45.680
 monitoring thing, but sometimes they'll say absolutely

1:19:45.680 --> 1:19:48.400
 completely 100% obviously true things.

1:19:48.400 --> 1:19:50.840
 Of course LiDAR is a crutch.

1:19:50.840 --> 1:19:53.040
 It's not even a good crutch.

1:19:53.040 --> 1:19:54.200
 You're not even using it.

1:19:54.200 --> 1:19:56.920
 They're using it for localization,

1:19:56.920 --> 1:19:58.160
 which isn't good in the first place.

1:19:58.160 --> 1:20:00.480
 If you have to localize your car to centimeters

1:20:00.480 --> 1:20:04.280
 in order to drive, that's not driving.

1:20:04.280 --> 1:20:06.320
 Currently not doing much machine learning.

1:20:06.320 --> 1:20:09.280
 I thought LiDAR data, meaning like to help you

1:20:09.280 --> 1:20:12.840
 in the task of general task of perception.

1:20:12.840 --> 1:20:15.320
 The main goal of those LiDARs on those cars

1:20:15.320 --> 1:20:18.840
 I think is actually localization more than perception,

1:20:18.840 --> 1:20:20.080
 or at least that's what they use them for.

1:20:20.080 --> 1:20:20.920
 Yeah, that's true.

1:20:20.920 --> 1:20:22.480
 If you want to localize to centimeters,

1:20:22.480 --> 1:20:23.720
 you can't use GPS.

1:20:23.720 --> 1:20:25.120
 The fancies GPS in the world can't do it,

1:20:25.120 --> 1:20:26.960
 especially if you're under tree cover and stuff.

1:20:26.960 --> 1:20:28.480
 LiDAR you can do this pretty easily.

1:20:28.480 --> 1:20:30.240
 So really they're not taking on,

1:20:30.240 --> 1:20:33.200
 I mean in some research they're using it for perception,

1:20:33.200 --> 1:20:35.840
 but and they're certainly not, which is sad,

1:20:35.840 --> 1:20:38.680
 they're not fusing it well with vision.

1:20:38.680 --> 1:20:40.560
 They do use it for perception.

1:20:40.560 --> 1:20:42.400
 I'm not saying they don't use it for perception,

1:20:42.400 --> 1:20:45.480
 but the thing that they have vision based

1:20:45.480 --> 1:20:47.680
 and radar based perception systems as well.

1:20:47.680 --> 1:20:51.440
 You could remove the LiDAR and keep around

1:20:51.440 --> 1:20:54.040
 a lot of the dynamic object perception.

1:20:54.040 --> 1:20:56.320
 You want to get centimeter accurate localization.

1:20:56.320 --> 1:20:59.120
 Good luck doing that with anything else.

1:20:59.120 --> 1:21:02.880
 So what should a cruise Waymo do?

1:21:02.880 --> 1:21:05.360
 Like what would be your advice to them now?

1:21:06.400 --> 1:21:11.400
 I mean Waymo is actually, they're serious.

1:21:11.400 --> 1:21:13.120
 Waymo out of the ball of them,

1:21:13.120 --> 1:21:16.120
 are quite serious about the long game.

1:21:16.120 --> 1:21:20.680
 If L5 is a lot, is requires 50 years,

1:21:20.680 --> 1:21:24.000
 I think Waymo will be the only one left standing at the end

1:21:24.000 --> 1:21:26.560
 with a given the financial backing that they have.

1:21:26.560 --> 1:21:28.640
 They're boo Google box.

1:21:28.640 --> 1:21:31.040
 I'll say nice things about both Waymo and cruise.

1:21:32.320 --> 1:21:33.480
 Let's do it.

1:21:33.480 --> 1:21:34.320
 Nice is good.

1:21:35.720 --> 1:21:39.200
 Waymo is by far the furthest along with technology.

1:21:39.200 --> 1:21:41.160
 Waymo has a three to five year lead

1:21:41.160 --> 1:21:42.880
 on all the competitors.

1:21:43.960 --> 1:21:48.640
 If the Waymo looking stack works,

1:21:48.640 --> 1:21:49.720
 maybe three year lead.

1:21:49.720 --> 1:21:51.280
 If the Waymo looking stack works,

1:21:51.280 --> 1:21:52.800
 they have a three year lead.

1:21:52.800 --> 1:21:55.800
 Now, I argue that Waymo has spent too much money

1:21:55.800 --> 1:21:59.240
 to recapitalize, to gain back their losses

1:21:59.240 --> 1:22:00.160
 in those three years.

1:22:00.160 --> 1:22:03.600
 Also self driving cars have no network effect like that.

1:22:03.600 --> 1:22:04.800
 Uber has a network effect.

1:22:04.800 --> 1:22:07.120
 You have a market, you have drivers and you have riders.

1:22:07.120 --> 1:22:09.880
 Self driving cars, you have capital and you have riders.

1:22:09.880 --> 1:22:11.400
 There's no network effect.

1:22:11.400 --> 1:22:13.800
 If I want to blanket a new city in self driving cars,

1:22:13.800 --> 1:22:16.000
 I buy the off the shelf Chinese knockoff self driving cars

1:22:16.000 --> 1:22:17.160
 and I buy enough of them in the city.

1:22:17.160 --> 1:22:18.360
 I can't do that with drivers.

1:22:18.360 --> 1:22:20.840
 And that's why Uber has a first mover advantage

1:22:20.840 --> 1:22:22.640
 that no self driving car company will.

1:22:23.960 --> 1:22:26.520
 Can you just a thing, let a little bit.

1:22:26.520 --> 1:22:28.160
 Uber, you're not talking about Uber,

1:22:28.160 --> 1:22:29.240
 the autonomous vehicle Uber.

1:22:29.240 --> 1:22:30.960
 You're talking about the Uber cars.

1:22:30.960 --> 1:22:31.800
 Yeah.

1:22:31.800 --> 1:22:32.640
 I'm Uber.

1:22:32.640 --> 1:22:35.920
 I open for business in Austin, Texas, let's say.

1:22:35.920 --> 1:22:38.760
 I need to attract both sides of the market.

1:22:38.760 --> 1:22:41.200
 I need to both get drivers on my platform

1:22:41.200 --> 1:22:42.720
 and riders on my platform.

1:22:42.720 --> 1:22:45.320
 And I need to keep them both sufficiently happy, right?

1:22:45.320 --> 1:22:46.520
 Riders aren't going to use it

1:22:46.520 --> 1:22:48.960
 if it takes more than five minutes for an Uber to show up.

1:22:48.960 --> 1:22:50.120
 Drivers aren't going to use it

1:22:50.120 --> 1:22:52.120
 if they have to sit around all day and there's no riders.

1:22:52.120 --> 1:22:54.480
 So you have to carefully balance a market.

1:22:54.480 --> 1:22:56.240
 And whenever you have to carefully balance a market,

1:22:56.240 --> 1:22:58.280
 there's a great first mover advantage

1:22:58.280 --> 1:23:01.000
 because there's a switching cost for everybody, right?

1:23:01.000 --> 1:23:02.120
 The drivers and the riders

1:23:02.120 --> 1:23:04.080
 would have to switch at the same time.

1:23:04.080 --> 1:23:08.880
 Let's even say that, let's say, Uber shows up.

1:23:08.880 --> 1:23:13.880
 And Uber somehow agrees to do things at a bigger,

1:23:14.800 --> 1:23:17.440
 we've done it more efficiently, right?

1:23:17.440 --> 1:23:19.800
 Uber only takes 5% of a car

1:23:19.800 --> 1:23:21.600
 instead of the 10% that Uber takes.

1:23:21.600 --> 1:23:22.760
 No one is going to switch

1:23:22.760 --> 1:23:24.920
 because the switching cost is higher than that 5%.

1:23:24.920 --> 1:23:27.200
 So you actually can, in markets like that,

1:23:27.200 --> 1:23:28.520
 you have a first mover advantage.

1:23:28.520 --> 1:23:29.360
 Yeah.

1:23:30.160 --> 1:23:32.720
 Autonomous vehicles of the level five variety

1:23:32.720 --> 1:23:34.560
 have no first mover advantage.

1:23:34.560 --> 1:23:36.800
 If the technology becomes commoditized,

1:23:36.800 --> 1:23:39.520
 say I want to go to a new city, look at the scooters.

1:23:39.520 --> 1:23:41.480
 It's going to look a lot more like scooters.

1:23:41.480 --> 1:23:44.040
 Every person with a checkbook

1:23:44.040 --> 1:23:45.720
 can blanket a city in scooters

1:23:45.720 --> 1:23:47.920
 and that's why you have 10 different scooter companies.

1:23:47.920 --> 1:23:48.760
 Which one's going to win?

1:23:48.760 --> 1:23:49.600
 It's a race to the bottom.

1:23:49.600 --> 1:23:51.040
 It's a terrible market to be in

1:23:51.040 --> 1:23:53.160
 because there's no market for scooters.

1:23:54.960 --> 1:23:56.520
 And the scooters don't get a say

1:23:56.520 --> 1:23:57.480
 in whether they want to be bought

1:23:57.480 --> 1:23:58.440
 and deployed to a city or not.

1:23:58.440 --> 1:23:59.280
 Right.

1:23:59.280 --> 1:24:00.120
 So yeah.

1:24:00.120 --> 1:24:02.080
 We're going to entice the scooters with subsidies

1:24:02.080 --> 1:24:02.920
 and deals.

1:24:03.840 --> 1:24:05.480
 So whenever you have to invest that capital,

1:24:05.480 --> 1:24:06.720
 it doesn't...

1:24:06.720 --> 1:24:07.560
 It doesn't come back.

1:24:07.560 --> 1:24:08.600
 Yeah.

1:24:08.600 --> 1:24:12.320
 They can't be your main criticism of the Waymo approach.

1:24:12.320 --> 1:24:14.840
 Oh, I'm saying even if it does technically work.

1:24:14.840 --> 1:24:17.040
 Even if it does technically work, that's a problem.

1:24:17.040 --> 1:24:18.000
 Yeah.

1:24:18.000 --> 1:24:21.720
 I don't know if I were to say, I would say,

1:24:22.840 --> 1:24:23.520
 you're already there.

1:24:23.520 --> 1:24:24.560
 I haven't even thought about that.

1:24:24.560 --> 1:24:26.520
 But I would say the bigger challenge

1:24:26.520 --> 1:24:27.760
 is the technical approach.

1:24:29.760 --> 1:24:31.840
 So Waymo's cruise is...

1:24:31.840 --> 1:24:33.000
 And not just the technical approach,

1:24:33.000 --> 1:24:34.800
 but of creating value.

1:24:34.800 --> 1:24:39.800
 I still don't understand how you beat Uber,

1:24:40.760 --> 1:24:43.480
 the human driven cars.

1:24:43.480 --> 1:24:44.920
 In terms of financially,

1:24:44.920 --> 1:24:47.160
 it doesn't make sense to me

1:24:47.160 --> 1:24:50.080
 that people want to get an autonomous vehicle.

1:24:50.080 --> 1:24:52.800
 I don't understand how you make money.

1:24:52.800 --> 1:24:56.440
 In the long term, yes, like real long term,

1:24:56.440 --> 1:24:58.640
 but it just feels like there's too much

1:24:58.640 --> 1:24:59.960
 capital investment needed.

1:24:59.960 --> 1:25:01.200
 Oh, and they're going to be worse than Ubers

1:25:01.200 --> 1:25:02.440
 because they're going to stop

1:25:02.440 --> 1:25:04.760
 for every little thing everywhere.

1:25:06.320 --> 1:25:07.360
 I'll say a nice thing about cruise.

1:25:07.360 --> 1:25:08.440
 That was my nice thing about Waymo.

1:25:08.440 --> 1:25:09.280
 They're three years ahead of me.

1:25:09.280 --> 1:25:10.120
 It was a nice...

1:25:10.120 --> 1:25:10.960
 Oh, because they're three years.

1:25:10.960 --> 1:25:12.480
 They're three years technically ahead of everybody.

1:25:12.480 --> 1:25:13.960
 Their tech stack is great.

1:25:14.800 --> 1:25:17.920
 My nice thing about cruise is GM buying them

1:25:17.920 --> 1:25:19.160
 was a great move for GM.

1:25:20.600 --> 1:25:22.240
 For $1 billion,

1:25:22.240 --> 1:25:25.600
 GM bought an insurance policy against Waymo.

1:25:26.560 --> 1:25:30.000
 They put cruise is three years behind Waymo.

1:25:30.000 --> 1:25:32.600
 That means Google will get a monopoly

1:25:32.600 --> 1:25:35.160
 on the technology for at most three years.

1:25:36.840 --> 1:25:38.880
 And if technology works,

1:25:38.880 --> 1:25:40.840
 you might not even be right about the three years.

1:25:40.840 --> 1:25:41.840
 It might be less.

1:25:41.840 --> 1:25:42.680
 Might be less.

1:25:42.680 --> 1:25:44.320
 Cruise actually might not be that far behind.

1:25:44.320 --> 1:25:47.360
 I don't know how much Waymo has waffled around

1:25:47.360 --> 1:25:49.760
 or how much of it actually is just that long tail.

1:25:49.760 --> 1:25:50.600
 Yeah, okay.

1:25:50.600 --> 1:25:53.600
 If that's the best you could say in terms of nice things,

1:25:53.600 --> 1:25:55.200
 that's more of a nice thing for GM

1:25:55.200 --> 1:25:58.560
 that that's a smart insurance policy.

1:25:58.560 --> 1:25:59.680
 It's a smart insurance policy.

1:25:59.680 --> 1:26:01.880
 I mean, I think that's how...

1:26:01.880 --> 1:26:05.200
 I can't see cruise working out any other.

1:26:05.200 --> 1:26:07.840
 For cruise to leapfrog Waymo would really surprise me.

1:26:10.400 --> 1:26:13.000
 Yeah, so let's talk about the underlying assumptions

1:26:13.000 --> 1:26:13.840
 of everything is...

1:26:13.840 --> 1:26:15.440
 We're not gonna leapfrog Tesla.

1:26:17.560 --> 1:26:19.240
 Tesla would have to seriously mess up

1:26:19.240 --> 1:26:20.440
 for us to leapfrog them.

1:26:20.440 --> 1:26:23.240
 Okay, so the way you leapfrog, right,

1:26:23.240 --> 1:26:26.120
 is you come up with an idea

1:26:26.120 --> 1:26:28.560
 or you take a direction, perhaps secretly,

1:26:28.560 --> 1:26:30.640
 that the other people aren't taking.

1:26:31.640 --> 1:26:36.640
 And so cruise, Waymo, even Aurora...

1:26:38.080 --> 1:26:40.080
 I don't know, Aurora, Zooks is the same stack as well.

1:26:40.080 --> 1:26:41.720
 They're all the same code base even.

1:26:41.720 --> 1:26:44.120
 They're all the same DARPA Urban Challenge code base.

1:26:44.120 --> 1:26:45.360
 It's...

1:26:45.360 --> 1:26:47.760
 So the question is, do you think there's a room

1:26:47.760 --> 1:26:49.120
 for brilliance and innovation there

1:26:49.120 --> 1:26:50.560
 that will change everything?

1:26:51.560 --> 1:26:53.880
 Like say, okay, so I'll give you examples.

1:26:53.880 --> 1:26:58.880
 It could be if revolution and mapping, for example,

1:26:59.640 --> 1:27:03.040
 that allow you to map things,

1:27:03.040 --> 1:27:05.840
 do HD maps of the whole world,

1:27:05.840 --> 1:27:08.080
 all weather conditions somehow really well,

1:27:08.080 --> 1:27:13.080
 or revolution and simulation,

1:27:14.480 --> 1:27:18.840
 to where all the way you said before becomes incorrect.

1:27:20.480 --> 1:27:21.520
 That kind of thing.

1:27:21.520 --> 1:27:23.920
 Any room for breakthrough innovation?

1:27:24.920 --> 1:27:25.960
 What I said before about,

1:27:25.960 --> 1:27:28.280
 oh, they actually get the whole thing, well,

1:27:28.280 --> 1:27:32.600
 I'll say this about we divide driving into three problems.

1:27:32.600 --> 1:27:33.800
 And I actually haven't solved the third yet,

1:27:33.800 --> 1:27:34.800
 but I haven't had any idea how to do it.

1:27:34.800 --> 1:27:36.120
 So there's the static.

1:27:36.120 --> 1:27:38.000
 The static driving problem is assuming

1:27:38.000 --> 1:27:40.120
 you are the only car on the road, right?

1:27:40.120 --> 1:27:42.000
 And this problem can be solved 100%

1:27:42.000 --> 1:27:44.000
 with mapping and localization.

1:27:44.000 --> 1:27:45.760
 This is why farms work the way they do.

1:27:45.760 --> 1:27:48.440
 If all you have to deal with is the static problem,

1:27:48.440 --> 1:27:50.160
 and you can statically schedule your machines, right?

1:27:50.160 --> 1:27:52.680
 It's the same as like statically scheduling processes.

1:27:52.680 --> 1:27:54.040
 You can statically schedule your tractors

1:27:54.040 --> 1:27:56.160
 to never hit each other on their paths, right?

1:27:56.160 --> 1:27:57.520
 Because then you know the speed they go at.

1:27:57.520 --> 1:28:00.160
 So that's the static driving problem.

1:28:00.160 --> 1:28:03.160
 Maps only helps you with the static driving problem.

1:28:03.920 --> 1:28:06.960
 Yeah, the question about static driving,

1:28:06.960 --> 1:28:08.800
 you've just made it sound like it's really easy.

1:28:08.800 --> 1:28:10.160
 Static driving is really easy.

1:28:11.880 --> 1:28:13.040
 How easy?

1:28:13.040 --> 1:28:16.480
 How, well, because the whole drifting out of lane,

1:28:16.480 --> 1:28:18.760
 when Tesla drifts out of lane,

1:28:18.760 --> 1:28:21.960
 it's failing on the fundamental static driving problem.

1:28:21.960 --> 1:28:24.440
 Tesla is drifting out of lane?

1:28:24.440 --> 1:28:27.720
 The static driving problem is not easy for the world.

1:28:27.720 --> 1:28:30.320
 The static driving problem is easy for one route.

1:28:31.840 --> 1:28:33.920
 One route in one weather condition

1:28:33.920 --> 1:28:37.920
 with one state of lane markings

1:28:37.920 --> 1:28:40.920
 and like no deterioration, no cracks in the road.

1:28:40.920 --> 1:28:42.600
 Well, I'm assuming you have a perfect localizer.

1:28:42.600 --> 1:28:44.200
 So that's all for the weather condition

1:28:44.200 --> 1:28:45.560
 and the lane marking condition.

1:28:45.560 --> 1:28:46.640
 But that's the problem.

1:28:46.640 --> 1:28:47.680
 How do you have a perfect localizer?

1:28:47.680 --> 1:28:50.560
 You can build, perfect localizers are not that hard to build.

1:28:50.560 --> 1:28:53.360
 Okay, come on now, with LIDAR.

1:28:53.360 --> 1:28:54.200
 LIDAR, yeah.

1:28:54.200 --> 1:28:55.040
 With LIDAR, okay.

1:28:55.040 --> 1:28:56.440
 LIDAR, yeah, but you use LIDAR, right?

1:28:56.440 --> 1:28:58.640
 Like you use LIDAR, build a perfect localizer.

1:28:58.640 --> 1:29:00.960
 Building a perfect localizer without LIDAR,

1:29:03.000 --> 1:29:04.320
 it's gonna be hard.

1:29:04.320 --> 1:29:05.760
 You can get 10 centimeters without LIDAR,

1:29:05.760 --> 1:29:07.240
 you can get one centimeter with LIDAR.

1:29:07.240 --> 1:29:09.280
 I'm not even concerned about the one or 10 centimeters.

1:29:09.280 --> 1:29:12.680
 I'm concerned if every once in a while you just weigh off.

1:29:12.680 --> 1:29:17.480
 Yeah, so this is why you have to carefully

1:29:17.480 --> 1:29:20.040
 make sure you're always tracking your position.

1:29:20.040 --> 1:29:21.760
 You wanna use LIDAR camera fusion,

1:29:21.760 --> 1:29:24.480
 but you can get the reliability of that system

1:29:24.480 --> 1:29:28.000
 up to 100,000 miles

1:29:28.000 --> 1:29:29.720
 and then you write some fallback condition

1:29:29.720 --> 1:29:32.160
 where it's not that bad if you're way off, right?

1:29:32.160 --> 1:29:33.800
 I think that you can get it to the point,

1:29:33.800 --> 1:29:36.800
 it's like ASL D that you're never in a case

1:29:36.800 --> 1:29:38.480
 where you're way off and you don't know it.

1:29:38.480 --> 1:29:40.240
 Yeah, okay, so this is brilliant.

1:29:40.240 --> 1:29:41.160
 So that's the static.

1:29:41.160 --> 1:29:42.280
 Static.

1:29:42.280 --> 1:29:45.960
 We can, especially with LIDAR and good HD maps,

1:29:45.960 --> 1:29:47.080
 you can solve that problem.

1:29:47.080 --> 1:29:47.920
 It's easy.

1:29:47.920 --> 1:29:51.840
 The static, the static problem is so easy.

1:29:51.840 --> 1:29:54.000
 It's very typical for you to say something's easy.

1:29:54.000 --> 1:29:54.840
 I got it.

1:29:54.840 --> 1:29:56.920
 It's not as challenging as the other ones, okay.

1:29:56.920 --> 1:29:58.760
 Well, okay, maybe it's obvious how to solve it.

1:29:58.760 --> 1:29:59.760
 The third one's the hardest.

1:29:59.760 --> 1:30:01.920
 And a lot of people don't even think about the third one

1:30:01.920 --> 1:30:03.640
 and even see it as different from the second one.

1:30:03.640 --> 1:30:05.720
 So the second one is dynamic.

1:30:05.720 --> 1:30:08.560
 The second one is like, say there's an obvious example,

1:30:08.560 --> 1:30:10.360
 it's like a car stopped at a red light, right?

1:30:10.360 --> 1:30:12.520
 You can't have that car in your map

1:30:12.520 --> 1:30:13.720
 because you don't know whether that car

1:30:13.720 --> 1:30:14.880
 is gonna be there or not.

1:30:14.880 --> 1:30:17.960
 So you have to detect that car in real time

1:30:17.960 --> 1:30:21.600
 and then you have to do the appropriate action, right?

1:30:21.600 --> 1:30:24.800
 Also, that car is not a fixed object.

1:30:24.800 --> 1:30:26.600
 That car may move and you have to predict

1:30:26.600 --> 1:30:28.680
 what that car will do, right?

1:30:28.680 --> 1:30:30.840
 So this is the dynamic problem.

1:30:30.840 --> 1:30:31.680
 Yeah.

1:30:31.680 --> 1:30:32.800
 So you have to deal with this.

1:30:32.800 --> 1:30:36.640
 This involves, again, like you're gonna need models

1:30:36.640 --> 1:30:38.760
 of other people's behavior.

1:30:38.760 --> 1:30:40.160
 Do you, are you including in that?

1:30:40.160 --> 1:30:42.320
 I don't wanna step on the third one.

1:30:42.320 --> 1:30:46.600
 Oh, but are you including in that your influence

1:30:46.600 --> 1:30:47.440
 on people?

1:30:47.440 --> 1:30:48.280
 Ah, that's the third one.

1:30:48.280 --> 1:30:49.120
 Okay.

1:30:49.120 --> 1:30:49.960
 That's the third one.

1:30:49.960 --> 1:30:51.880
 We call it the counterfactual.

1:30:51.880 --> 1:30:52.720
 Yeah, brilliant.

1:30:52.720 --> 1:30:53.560
 And that.

1:30:53.560 --> 1:30:54.920
 I just talked to Judea Pro who's obsessed

1:30:54.920 --> 1:30:55.760
 with counterfactuals.

1:30:55.760 --> 1:30:58.640
 Counterfactual, oh yeah, yeah, I read his books.

1:30:58.640 --> 1:31:03.640
 So the static and the dynamic are our approach right now

1:31:03.960 --> 1:31:07.600
 for lateral will scale completely to the static and dynamic.

1:31:07.600 --> 1:31:10.760
 The counterfactual, the only way I have to do it yet,

1:31:10.760 --> 1:31:14.000
 the thing that I wanna do once we have all of these cars

1:31:14.000 --> 1:31:16.760
 is I wanna do reinforcement learning on the world.

1:31:16.760 --> 1:31:18.880
 I'm always gonna turn the exploiter up to max.

1:31:18.880 --> 1:31:20.440
 I'm not gonna have them explore.

1:31:20.440 --> 1:31:22.760
 But the only real way to get at the counterfactual

1:31:22.760 --> 1:31:24.080
 is to do reinforcement learning

1:31:24.080 --> 1:31:26.360
 because the other agents are humans.

1:31:27.760 --> 1:31:30.080
 So that's fascinating that you break it down like that.

1:31:30.080 --> 1:31:31.680
 I agree completely.

1:31:31.680 --> 1:31:33.600
 I've spent my life thinking about this problem.

1:31:33.600 --> 1:31:34.920
 This is beautiful.

1:31:34.920 --> 1:31:37.880
 And part of it, cause you're slightly insane,

1:31:37.880 --> 1:31:42.880
 because not my life, just the last four years.

1:31:43.120 --> 1:31:48.120
 No, no, you have some non zero percent of your brain

1:31:48.920 --> 1:31:52.360
 has a madman in it, which is a really good feature.

1:31:52.360 --> 1:31:55.920
 But there's a safety component to it

1:31:55.920 --> 1:31:57.320
 that I think when there's sort of

1:31:57.320 --> 1:31:59.040
 with counterfactuals and so on,

1:31:59.040 --> 1:32:00.280
 that would just freak people out.

1:32:00.280 --> 1:32:03.320
 How do you even start to think about this in general?

1:32:03.320 --> 1:32:07.600
 I mean, you've had some friction with NHTSA and so on.

1:32:07.600 --> 1:32:12.600
 I am frankly exhausted by safety engineers.

1:32:14.280 --> 1:32:19.280
 The prioritization on safety over innovation

1:32:21.360 --> 1:32:23.720
 to a degree where it kills, in my view,

1:32:23.720 --> 1:32:26.200
 kills safety in the longterm.

1:32:26.200 --> 1:32:28.080
 So the counterfactual thing,

1:32:28.080 --> 1:32:31.560
 they just actually exploring this world

1:32:31.560 --> 1:32:33.600
 of how do you interact with dynamic objects and so on?

1:32:33.600 --> 1:32:34.840
 How do you think about safety?

1:32:34.840 --> 1:32:38.120
 You can do reinforcement learning without ever exploring.

1:32:38.120 --> 1:32:39.200
 And I said that, like,

1:32:39.200 --> 1:32:41.560
 so you can think about your, in like reinforcement learning,

1:32:41.560 --> 1:32:44.320
 it's usually called like a temperature parameter.

1:32:44.320 --> 1:32:45.360
 And your temperature parameter

1:32:45.360 --> 1:32:48.080
 is how often you deviate from the argmax.

1:32:48.080 --> 1:32:50.720
 I could always set that to zero and still learn.

1:32:50.720 --> 1:32:52.840
 And I feel that you'd always want that set to zero

1:32:52.840 --> 1:32:54.080
 on your actual system.

1:32:54.080 --> 1:32:54.920
 Gotcha.

1:32:54.920 --> 1:32:58.160
 But the problem is you first don't know very much

1:32:58.160 --> 1:32:59.560
 and so you're going to make mistakes.

1:32:59.560 --> 1:33:01.680
 So the learning, the exploration happens through mistakes.

1:33:01.680 --> 1:33:03.240
 We're all ready, yeah, but.

1:33:03.240 --> 1:33:06.080
 Okay, so the consequences of a mistake.

1:33:06.080 --> 1:33:09.400
 OpenPilot and Autopilot are making mistakes left and right.

1:33:09.400 --> 1:33:12.560
 We have 700 daily active users,

1:33:12.560 --> 1:33:14.080
 1,000 weekly active users.

1:33:14.080 --> 1:33:18.920
 OpenPilot makes tens of thousands of mistakes a week.

1:33:18.920 --> 1:33:21.160
 These mistakes have zero consequences.

1:33:21.160 --> 1:33:22.520
 These mistakes are,

1:33:22.520 --> 1:33:26.800
 oh, I wanted to take this exit and it went straight.

1:33:26.800 --> 1:33:28.520
 So I'm just going to carefully touch the wheel.

1:33:28.520 --> 1:33:29.360
 The humans catch them.

1:33:29.360 --> 1:33:30.640
 The humans catch them.

1:33:30.640 --> 1:33:33.120
 And the human disengagement is labeling

1:33:33.120 --> 1:33:35.000
 that reinforcement learning in a completely

1:33:35.000 --> 1:33:36.200
 consequence free way.

1:33:37.240 --> 1:33:39.840
 So driver monitoring is the way you ensure they keep.

1:33:39.840 --> 1:33:40.680
 Yes.

1:33:40.680 --> 1:33:42.120
 They keep paying attention.

1:33:42.120 --> 1:33:43.240
 How's your messaging?

1:33:43.240 --> 1:33:45.200
 Say I gave you a billion dollars,

1:33:45.200 --> 1:33:46.960
 so you would be scaling it now.

1:33:47.800 --> 1:33:49.720
 Oh, if I could scale, I couldn't scale with any amount of money.

1:33:49.720 --> 1:33:51.640
 I'd raise money if I could, if I had a way to scale it.

1:33:51.640 --> 1:33:53.320
 Yeah, you're not, no, I'm not focused on scale.

1:33:53.320 --> 1:33:54.160
 I don't know how to do.

1:33:54.160 --> 1:33:55.760
 Oh, like, I guess I could sell it to more people,

1:33:55.760 --> 1:33:56.960
 but I want to make the system better.

1:33:56.960 --> 1:33:57.800
 Better, better.

1:33:57.800 --> 1:33:58.840
 And I don't know how to.

1:33:58.840 --> 1:34:01.080
 But what's the messaging here?

1:34:01.080 --> 1:34:02.560
 I got a chance to talk to Elon.

1:34:02.560 --> 1:34:07.560
 And he basically said that the human factor doesn't matter.

1:34:09.280 --> 1:34:10.360
 You know, the human doesn't matter

1:34:10.360 --> 1:34:12.280
 because the system will perform.

1:34:12.280 --> 1:34:14.760
 There'll be sort of a, sorry to use the term,

1:34:14.760 --> 1:34:16.120
 but like a singular, like a point

1:34:16.120 --> 1:34:17.920
 where it gets just much better.

1:34:17.920 --> 1:34:20.800
 And so the human, it won't really matter.

1:34:20.800 --> 1:34:25.000
 But it seems like that human catching the system

1:34:25.000 --> 1:34:29.360
 when it gets into trouble is like the thing

1:34:29.360 --> 1:34:32.720
 which will make something like reinforcement learning work.

1:34:32.720 --> 1:34:35.640
 So how do you, how do you think messaging for Tesla,

1:34:35.640 --> 1:34:39.080
 for you, for the industry in general, should change?

1:34:39.080 --> 1:34:40.840
 I think my messaging is pretty clear,

1:34:40.840 --> 1:34:43.080
 at least like our messaging wasn't that clear

1:34:43.080 --> 1:34:45.200
 in the beginning and I do kind of fault myself for that.

1:34:45.200 --> 1:34:48.480
 We are proud right now to be a level two system.

1:34:48.480 --> 1:34:50.360
 We are proud to be level two.

1:34:50.360 --> 1:34:51.640
 If we talk about level four,

1:34:51.640 --> 1:34:53.200
 it's not with the current hardware.

1:34:53.200 --> 1:34:55.920
 It's not going to be just a magical OTA upgrade.

1:34:55.920 --> 1:34:57.280
 It's going to be new hardware.

1:34:57.280 --> 1:35:00.000
 It's going to be very carefully thought out right now.

1:35:00.000 --> 1:35:01.560
 We are proud to be level two.

1:35:01.560 --> 1:35:03.320
 And we have a rigorous safety model.

1:35:03.320 --> 1:35:05.680
 I mean, not like, like, okay, rigorous.

1:35:05.680 --> 1:35:06.600
 Who knows what that means?

1:35:06.600 --> 1:35:08.600
 But we at least have a safety model

1:35:08.600 --> 1:35:09.560
 and we make it explicit.

1:35:09.560 --> 1:35:11.800
 It's in safety.md and open pilot.

1:35:11.800 --> 1:35:13.960
 And it says, seriously though.

1:35:13.960 --> 1:35:14.800
 Safety.md.

1:35:14.800 --> 1:35:15.840
 Safety.md.

1:35:16.840 --> 1:35:18.400
 This is really, this is so Android.

1:35:18.400 --> 1:35:21.800
 So, well, this is, this is the safety model

1:35:21.800 --> 1:35:25.520
 and I like to have conversations like if, like, you know,

1:35:25.520 --> 1:35:27.120
 sometimes people will come to you and they're like,

1:35:27.120 --> 1:35:29.240
 your system's not safe.

1:35:29.240 --> 1:35:30.080
 Okay.

1:35:30.080 --> 1:35:31.080
 Have you read my safety docs?

1:35:31.080 --> 1:35:32.720
 Would you like to have an intelligent conversation

1:35:32.720 --> 1:35:33.560
 about this?

1:35:33.560 --> 1:35:34.400
 And the answer is always no.

1:35:34.400 --> 1:35:36.880
 They just like scream about, it runs Python.

1:35:38.240 --> 1:35:39.080
 Okay. What?

1:35:39.080 --> 1:35:41.560
 So you're saying that, that because Python's not real time,

1:35:41.560 --> 1:35:44.240
 Python not being real time never causes disengagement.

1:35:44.240 --> 1:35:47.640
 Disengagement's are caused by, you know, the model is QM.

1:35:47.640 --> 1:35:49.760
 But safety.md says the following.

1:35:49.760 --> 1:35:50.600
 First and foremost,

1:35:50.600 --> 1:35:53.000
 the driver must be paying attention at all times.

1:35:54.240 --> 1:35:55.320
 I don't consider, I do,

1:35:55.320 --> 1:35:57.720
 I still consider the software to be alpha software

1:35:57.720 --> 1:36:00.080
 until we can actually enforce that statement.

1:36:00.080 --> 1:36:03.280
 But I feel it's very well communicated to our users.

1:36:03.280 --> 1:36:04.520
 Two more things.

1:36:04.520 --> 1:36:09.080
 One is the user must be able to easily take control

1:36:09.080 --> 1:36:10.880
 of the vehicle at all times.

1:36:10.880 --> 1:36:14.440
 So if you step on the gas or brake with open pilot,

1:36:14.440 --> 1:36:16.400
 it gives full manual control back to the user

1:36:16.400 --> 1:36:18.680
 or press the cancel button.

1:36:18.680 --> 1:36:23.240
 Step two, the car will never react so quickly.

1:36:23.240 --> 1:36:26.000
 We define so quickly to be about one second

1:36:26.000 --> 1:36:27.640
 that you can't react in time.

1:36:27.640 --> 1:36:29.480
 And we do this by enforcing torque limits,

1:36:29.480 --> 1:36:31.520
 braking limits and acceleration limits.

1:36:31.520 --> 1:36:36.520
 So we have like our torque limits way lower than Tesla's.

1:36:36.520 --> 1:36:39.080
 This is another potential.

1:36:39.080 --> 1:36:40.240
 If I could tweak autopilot,

1:36:40.240 --> 1:36:41.360
 I would lower their torque limit

1:36:41.360 --> 1:36:42.960
 and I would add driver monitoring.

1:36:42.960 --> 1:36:46.240
 Because autopilot can jerk the wheel hard.

1:36:46.240 --> 1:36:47.520
 Open pilot can't.

1:36:47.520 --> 1:36:52.080
 It's, we limit and all this code is open source, readable.

1:36:52.080 --> 1:36:54.880
 And I believe now it's all MISRA C compliant.

1:36:54.880 --> 1:36:55.800
 What's that mean?

1:36:57.080 --> 1:37:00.400
 MISRA is like the automotive coding standard.

1:37:00.400 --> 1:37:03.400
 At first, I've come to respect,

1:37:03.400 --> 1:37:04.960
 I've been reading like the standards lately

1:37:04.960 --> 1:37:05.920
 and I've come to respect them.

1:37:05.920 --> 1:37:07.800
 They're actually written by very smart people.

1:37:07.800 --> 1:37:09.920
 Yeah, they're brilliant people actually.

1:37:09.920 --> 1:37:11.320
 They have a lot of experience.

1:37:11.320 --> 1:37:13.360
 They're sometimes a little too cautious,

1:37:13.360 --> 1:37:16.800
 but in this case, it pays off.

1:37:16.800 --> 1:37:18.440
 MISRA is written by like computer scientists

1:37:18.440 --> 1:37:19.840
 and you can tell by the language they use.

1:37:19.840 --> 1:37:21.080
 You can tell by the language they use.

1:37:21.080 --> 1:37:24.440
 They talk about like whether certain conditions in MISRA

1:37:24.440 --> 1:37:26.520
 are decidable or undecidable.

1:37:26.520 --> 1:37:28.360
 And you mean like the halting problem?

1:37:28.360 --> 1:37:31.600
 And yes, all right, you've earned my respect.

1:37:31.600 --> 1:37:33.120
 I will read carefully what you have to say

1:37:33.120 --> 1:37:35.760
 and we want to make our code compliant with that.

1:37:35.760 --> 1:37:38.160
 All right, so you're proud level two, beautiful.

1:37:38.160 --> 1:37:42.320
 So you were the founder and I think CEO of Kama AI,

1:37:42.320 --> 1:37:44.320
 then you were the head of research.

1:37:44.320 --> 1:37:46.080
 What the heck are you now?

1:37:46.080 --> 1:37:47.480
 What's your connection to Kama AI?

1:37:47.480 --> 1:37:49.640
 I'm the president, but I'm one of those like

1:37:49.640 --> 1:37:53.440
 unelected presidents of like a small dictatorship country,

1:37:53.440 --> 1:37:55.200
 not one of those like elected presidents.

1:37:55.200 --> 1:37:57.640
 Oh, so you're like Putin when he was like the, yeah,

1:37:57.640 --> 1:37:58.980
 I got you.

1:37:58.980 --> 1:38:02.120
 So there's, what's the governance structure?

1:38:02.120 --> 1:38:04.800
 What's the future of Kama AI finance?

1:38:04.800 --> 1:38:08.120
 I mean, yeah, as a business, do you want,

1:38:08.120 --> 1:38:11.640
 are you just focused on getting things right now,

1:38:11.640 --> 1:38:14.920
 making some small amount of money in the meantime

1:38:14.920 --> 1:38:17.520
 and then when it works, it works a new scale.

1:38:17.520 --> 1:38:20.480
 Our burn rate is about 200 K a month

1:38:20.480 --> 1:38:23.040
 and our revenue is about 100 K a month.

1:38:23.040 --> 1:38:24.920
 So we need to forex our revenue,

1:38:24.920 --> 1:38:28.200
 but we haven't like tried very hard at that yet.

1:38:28.200 --> 1:38:30.160
 And the revenue is basically selling stuff online.

1:38:30.160 --> 1:38:32.360
 Yeah, we sell stuff shop.com.ai.

1:38:32.360 --> 1:38:33.920
 Is there other, well, okay.

1:38:33.920 --> 1:38:35.360
 So you'll have to figure out.

1:38:35.360 --> 1:38:37.880
 That's our only, see, but to me,

1:38:37.880 --> 1:38:40.400
 that's like respectable revenues.

1:38:40.400 --> 1:38:42.640
 We make it by selling products to consumers

1:38:42.640 --> 1:38:45.040
 for honest and transparent about what they are.

1:38:45.040 --> 1:38:49.000
 Most actually level four companies, right?

1:38:50.720 --> 1:38:54.320
 Cause you could easily start blowing up like smoke,

1:38:54.320 --> 1:38:57.080
 like overselling the hype and feeding into,

1:38:57.080 --> 1:38:59.080
 getting some fundraisers.

1:38:59.080 --> 1:39:00.520
 Oh, you're the guy, you're a genius

1:39:00.520 --> 1:39:01.800
 because you hacked the iPhone.

1:39:01.800 --> 1:39:02.920
 Oh, I hate that.

1:39:02.920 --> 1:39:03.760
 I hate that.

1:39:03.760 --> 1:39:06.360
 Yeah, I can trade my social capital for more money.

1:39:06.360 --> 1:39:07.320
 I did it once.

1:39:07.320 --> 1:39:10.320
 I almost regret it doing it the first time.

1:39:10.320 --> 1:39:11.640
 Well, on a small tangent,

1:39:11.640 --> 1:39:16.560
 what's your, you seem to not like fame

1:39:16.560 --> 1:39:18.840
 and yet you're also drawn to fame.

1:39:18.840 --> 1:39:23.840
 What's, where have you on, where are you on that currently?

1:39:24.560 --> 1:39:27.200
 Have you had some introspection, some soul searching?

1:39:27.200 --> 1:39:28.480
 Yeah.

1:39:28.480 --> 1:39:32.200
 I actually, I've come to a pretty stable position on that.

1:39:32.200 --> 1:39:33.880
 Like after the first time,

1:39:33.880 --> 1:39:36.840
 I realized that I don't want attention from the masses.

1:39:36.840 --> 1:39:39.160
 I want attention from people who I respect.

1:39:39.160 --> 1:39:41.960
 Who do you respect?

1:39:41.960 --> 1:39:43.960
 I can give a list of people.

1:39:43.960 --> 1:39:47.200
 So are these like Elon Musk type characters?

1:39:47.200 --> 1:39:49.040
 Yeah.

1:39:49.040 --> 1:39:50.000
 Actually, you know what?

1:39:50.000 --> 1:39:51.200
 I'll make it more broad than that.

1:39:51.200 --> 1:39:52.600
 I won't make it about a person.

1:39:52.600 --> 1:39:54.040
 I respect skill.

1:39:54.040 --> 1:39:56.880
 I respect people who have skills, right?

1:39:56.880 --> 1:40:00.280
 And I would like to like be,

1:40:00.280 --> 1:40:01.400
 I'm not gonna say famous,

1:40:01.400 --> 1:40:03.760
 but be like known among more people

1:40:03.760 --> 1:40:05.440
 who have like real skills.

1:40:05.440 --> 1:40:10.440
 Who in cars, do you think have skill?

1:40:12.560 --> 1:40:13.720
 Not do you respect?

1:40:15.000 --> 1:40:17.760
 Oh, Kyle Voat has skill.

1:40:17.760 --> 1:40:19.880
 A lot of people at Waymo have skill.

1:40:19.880 --> 1:40:20.840
 And I respect them.

1:40:20.840 --> 1:40:23.760
 I respect them as engineers.

1:40:23.760 --> 1:40:24.920
 Like I can think, I mean,

1:40:24.920 --> 1:40:26.280
 I think about all the times in my life

1:40:26.280 --> 1:40:27.960
 where I've been like dead set on approaches

1:40:27.960 --> 1:40:29.160
 and they turn out to be wrong.

1:40:29.160 --> 1:40:30.000
 Yeah.

1:40:30.000 --> 1:40:31.720
 So I mean, this might, I might be wrong.

1:40:31.720 --> 1:40:34.720
 I accept that, I accept that there's a decent chance

1:40:34.720 --> 1:40:36.600
 that I'm wrong.

1:40:36.600 --> 1:40:38.400
 And actually, I mean, having talked to Chris Armson,

1:40:38.400 --> 1:40:40.480
 Sterling Anderson, those guys,

1:40:40.480 --> 1:40:43.360
 I mean, I deeply respect Chris.

1:40:43.360 --> 1:40:44.640
 I just admire the guy.

1:40:46.040 --> 1:40:47.400
 He's legit.

1:40:47.400 --> 1:40:48.960
 When you drive a car through the desert

1:40:48.960 --> 1:40:52.400
 when everybody thinks it's impossible, that's legit.

1:40:52.400 --> 1:40:53.840
 And then I also really respect the people

1:40:53.840 --> 1:40:55.680
 who are like writing the infrastructure of the world,

1:40:55.680 --> 1:40:57.360
 like the Linus Torvalds and the Chris Ladin.

1:40:57.360 --> 1:40:59.080
 Oh yeah, they were doing the real work.

1:40:59.080 --> 1:41:00.800
 I know they're doing the real work.

1:41:02.000 --> 1:41:03.760
 Having talked to Chris Ladin,

1:41:03.760 --> 1:41:05.680
 you realize, especially when they're humble,

1:41:05.680 --> 1:41:07.680
 it's like, you realize, oh, you guys,

1:41:07.680 --> 1:41:09.640
 we're just using your...

1:41:09.640 --> 1:41:10.480
 Oh yeah.

1:41:10.480 --> 1:41:11.520
 All the hard work that you did.

1:41:11.520 --> 1:41:13.120
 Yeah, that's incredible.

1:41:13.120 --> 1:41:17.160
 What do you think, Mr. Anthony Lewandowski?

1:41:18.440 --> 1:41:21.640
 What do you, he's a, he's another mad genius.

1:41:21.640 --> 1:41:22.480
 Sharp guy.

1:41:22.480 --> 1:41:23.320
 Oh yeah.

1:41:23.320 --> 1:41:27.640
 What, do you think he might long term become a competitor?

1:41:27.640 --> 1:41:28.840
 Oh, to comma?

1:41:28.840 --> 1:41:32.400
 Well, so I think that he has the other right approach.

1:41:32.400 --> 1:41:35.280
 I think that right now, there's two right approaches.

1:41:35.280 --> 1:41:37.680
 One is what we're doing and one is what he's doing.

1:41:37.680 --> 1:41:39.800
 Can you describe, I think it's called Pronto AI,

1:41:39.800 --> 1:41:42.360
 he's starting using, do you know what the approach is?

1:41:42.360 --> 1:41:43.200
 I actually don't know.

1:41:43.200 --> 1:41:45.040
 Embark is also doing the same sort of thing.

1:41:45.040 --> 1:41:47.280
 The idea is almost that you want to,

1:41:47.280 --> 1:41:51.800
 so if you're, I can't partner with Honda and Toyota.

1:41:51.800 --> 1:41:56.800
 Honda and Toyota are like 400,000 person companies.

1:41:57.600 --> 1:41:59.400
 It's not even a company at that point.

1:41:59.400 --> 1:42:01.400
 Like I don't think of it like, I don't personify it.

1:42:01.400 --> 1:42:06.400
 I think of it like an object, but a trucker drives for a fleet.

1:42:07.120 --> 1:42:10.280
 Maybe that has like, some truckers are independent.

1:42:10.280 --> 1:42:12.080
 Some truckers drive for fleets with a hundred trucks.

1:42:12.080 --> 1:42:14.960
 There are tons of independent trucking companies out there.

1:42:14.960 --> 1:42:18.120
 Start a trucking company and drive your costs down

1:42:18.120 --> 1:42:23.120
 or figure out how to drive down the cost of trucking.

1:42:23.760 --> 1:42:26.560
 Another company that I really respect is Nauto.

1:42:26.560 --> 1:42:28.320
 Actually, I respect their business model.

1:42:28.320 --> 1:42:31.560
 Nauto sells a driver monitoring camera

1:42:31.560 --> 1:42:33.920
 and they sell it to fleet owners.

1:42:33.920 --> 1:42:38.920
 If I owned a fleet of cars and I could pay 40 bucks a month

1:42:39.120 --> 1:42:41.280
 to monitor my employees,

1:42:42.400 --> 1:42:45.520
 this is gonna like reduces accidents 18%.

1:42:45.520 --> 1:42:48.960
 It's so like that in the space,

1:42:48.960 --> 1:42:52.000
 that is like the business model that I like most respect

1:42:53.400 --> 1:42:55.360
 because they're creating value today.

1:42:55.360 --> 1:42:57.840
 Yeah, which is, that's a huge one.

1:42:57.840 --> 1:42:59.800
 How do we create value today with some of this?

1:42:59.800 --> 1:43:01.680
 And the length keeping thing is huge.

1:43:01.680 --> 1:43:03.800
 And it sounds like you're creeping in

1:43:03.800 --> 1:43:06.680
 or full steam ahead on the drive of monitoring too.

1:43:06.680 --> 1:43:09.240
 Which I think actually where the short term value,

1:43:09.240 --> 1:43:10.480
 if you can get right.

1:43:10.480 --> 1:43:12.800
 I still, I'm not a huge fan of the statement

1:43:12.800 --> 1:43:15.120
 that everything is to have drive of monitoring.

1:43:15.120 --> 1:43:16.120
 I agree with that completely,

1:43:16.120 --> 1:43:18.680
 but that statement usually misses the point

1:43:18.680 --> 1:43:21.920
 that to get the experience of it right is not trivial.

1:43:21.920 --> 1:43:22.840
 Oh, no, not at all.

1:43:22.840 --> 1:43:25.280
 In fact, like, so right now we have,

1:43:25.280 --> 1:43:28.480
 I think the timeout depends on speed of the car,

1:43:29.560 --> 1:43:32.520
 but we want to depend on like the scene state.

1:43:32.520 --> 1:43:35.440
 If you're on like an empty highway,

1:43:35.440 --> 1:43:37.680
 it's very different if you don't pay attention

1:43:37.680 --> 1:43:40.600
 than if like you're like coming up to a traffic light.

1:43:42.040 --> 1:43:45.720
 And long term, it should probably learn from the driver

1:43:45.720 --> 1:43:48.120
 because that's to do, I watched a lot of video.

1:43:48.120 --> 1:43:49.480
 We've built a smartphone detector

1:43:49.480 --> 1:43:51.520
 just to analyze how people are using smartphones

1:43:51.520 --> 1:43:53.400
 and people are using it very differently.

1:43:53.400 --> 1:43:57.760
 And there's this, it's a texting styles.

1:43:57.760 --> 1:44:00.320
 We haven't watched nearly enough of the videos.

1:44:00.320 --> 1:44:01.800
 We haven't, I got millions of miles

1:44:01.800 --> 1:44:02.960
 of people driving cars.

1:44:02.960 --> 1:44:05.960
 In this moment, I spent a large fraction of my time

1:44:05.960 --> 1:44:10.880
 just watching videos because it's never fails to learn.

1:44:10.880 --> 1:44:13.480
 Like I've never failed from a video watching session

1:44:13.480 --> 1:44:15.400
 to learn something I didn't know before.

1:44:15.400 --> 1:44:19.640
 In fact, I usually, like when I eat lunch, I'll sit,

1:44:19.640 --> 1:44:20.680
 especially when the weather is good

1:44:20.680 --> 1:44:22.080
 and just watch pedestrians.

1:44:22.080 --> 1:44:26.400
 With an eye to understand like from a computer vision eye,

1:44:26.400 --> 1:44:29.280
 just to see, can this model, can you predict

1:44:29.280 --> 1:44:30.480
 what are the decisions made?

1:44:30.480 --> 1:44:33.040
 And there's so many things that we don't understand.

1:44:33.040 --> 1:44:34.760
 This is what I mean about state vector.

1:44:34.760 --> 1:44:37.880
 Yeah, it's, I'm trying to always think like,

1:44:37.880 --> 1:44:40.280
 because I'm understanding in my human brain,

1:44:40.280 --> 1:44:42.000
 how do we convert that into,

1:44:43.000 --> 1:44:44.960
 how hard is the learning problem here?

1:44:44.960 --> 1:44:46.960
 I guess is the fundamental question.

1:44:46.960 --> 1:44:51.800
 So something that's from a hacking perspective,

1:44:51.800 --> 1:44:54.200
 this is always comes up, especially with folks.

1:44:54.200 --> 1:44:56.480
 Well, first, the most popular question is

1:44:56.480 --> 1:44:58.440
 the trolley problem, right?

1:44:58.440 --> 1:45:01.960
 So that's not a sort of a serious problem.

1:45:01.960 --> 1:45:05.000
 There are some ethical questions, I think that arise.

1:45:06.080 --> 1:45:09.600
 Maybe you wanna, do you think there's any ethical,

1:45:09.600 --> 1:45:11.280
 serious ethical questions?

1:45:11.280 --> 1:45:14.080
 We have a solution to the trolley problem at com.ai.

1:45:14.080 --> 1:45:15.920
 Well, so there is actually an alert

1:45:15.920 --> 1:45:18.000
 in our code, ethical dilemma detected.

1:45:18.000 --> 1:45:18.960
 It's not triggered yet.

1:45:18.960 --> 1:45:21.040
 We don't know how yet to detect the ethical dilemmas,

1:45:21.040 --> 1:45:22.360
 but we're a level two system.

1:45:22.360 --> 1:45:23.760
 So we're going to disengage and leave

1:45:23.760 --> 1:45:25.320
 that decision to the human.

1:45:25.320 --> 1:45:26.680
 You're such a troll.

1:45:26.680 --> 1:45:28.760
 No, but the trolley problem deserves to be trolled.

1:45:28.760 --> 1:45:32.040
 Yeah, that's a beautiful answer actually.

1:45:32.040 --> 1:45:34.440
 I know, I gave it to someone who was like,

1:45:34.440 --> 1:45:36.600
 sometimes people ask like you asked about the trolley problem.

1:45:36.600 --> 1:45:38.080
 Like you can have a kind of discussion about it.

1:45:38.080 --> 1:45:39.720
 Like when you get someone who's like really like

1:45:39.720 --> 1:45:43.600
 earnest about it, because it's the kind of thing where

1:45:43.600 --> 1:45:45.600
 if you ask a bunch of people in an office,

1:45:45.600 --> 1:45:48.360
 whether we should use a SQL stack or no SQL stack,

1:45:48.360 --> 1:45:50.600
 if they're not that technical, they have no opinion.

1:45:50.600 --> 1:45:52.360
 But if you ask them what color they want to paint the office,

1:45:52.360 --> 1:45:54.040
 everyone has an opinion on that.

1:45:54.040 --> 1:45:56.040
 And that's why the trolley problem is.

1:45:56.040 --> 1:45:57.280
 I mean, that's a beautiful answer.

1:45:57.280 --> 1:45:59.240
 Yeah, we're able to detect the problem

1:45:59.240 --> 1:46:01.960
 and we're able to pass it on to the human.

1:46:01.960 --> 1:46:03.760
 Wow, I've never heard anyone say it.

1:46:03.760 --> 1:46:06.160
 This is your nice escape route.

1:46:06.160 --> 1:46:07.320
 Okay, but...

1:46:07.320 --> 1:46:08.680
 Proud level two.

1:46:08.680 --> 1:46:09.760
 I'm proud level two.

1:46:09.760 --> 1:46:10.600
 I love it.

1:46:10.600 --> 1:46:14.400
 So the other thing that people have some concern about

1:46:14.400 --> 1:46:17.800
 with AI in general is hacking.

1:46:17.800 --> 1:46:21.400
 So how hard is it, do you think, to hack an autonomous vehicle

1:46:21.400 --> 1:46:25.000
 either through physical access or through the more sort of

1:46:25.000 --> 1:46:28.240
 popular now, these adversarial examples on the sensors?

1:46:28.240 --> 1:46:30.720
 Okay, the adversarial examples one.

1:46:30.720 --> 1:46:32.320
 You want to see some adversarial examples

1:46:32.320 --> 1:46:34.880
 that affect humans, right?

1:46:34.880 --> 1:46:38.040
 Oh, well, there used to be a stop sign here,

1:46:38.040 --> 1:46:40.000
 but I put a black bag over the stop sign

1:46:40.000 --> 1:46:43.520
 and then people ran it, adversarial, right?

1:46:43.520 --> 1:46:48.360
 Like, there's tons of human adversarial examples too.

1:46:48.360 --> 1:46:52.240
 The question in general about security, if you saw,

1:46:52.240 --> 1:46:54.040
 something just came out today and there are always

1:46:54.040 --> 1:46:57.560
 such hypey headlines about how navigate on autopilot

1:46:57.560 --> 1:47:00.960
 was fooled by a GPS spoof to take an exit.

1:47:00.960 --> 1:47:01.800
 Right.

1:47:01.800 --> 1:47:03.920
 At least that's all they could do was take an exit.

1:47:03.920 --> 1:47:06.720
 If your car is relying on GPS in order

1:47:06.720 --> 1:47:10.240
 to have a safe driving policy, you're doing something wrong.

1:47:10.240 --> 1:47:12.680
 If you're relying, and this is why V2V

1:47:12.680 --> 1:47:17.680
 is such a terrible idea, V2V now relies on both parties

1:47:18.160 --> 1:47:19.800
 getting communication right.

1:47:19.800 --> 1:47:24.800
 This is not even, so I think of safety,

1:47:26.080 --> 1:47:28.480
 security is like a special case of safety, right?

1:47:28.480 --> 1:47:31.880
 Safety is like we put a little, you know,

1:47:31.880 --> 1:47:33.360
 piece of caution tape around the hole

1:47:33.360 --> 1:47:35.560
 so that people won't walk into it by accident.

1:47:35.560 --> 1:47:38.240
 Security is like put a 10 foot fence around the hole

1:47:38.240 --> 1:47:40.120
 so you actually physically cannot climb into it

1:47:40.120 --> 1:47:42.360
 with barbed wire on the top and stuff, right?

1:47:42.360 --> 1:47:44.560
 So like if you're designing systems

1:47:44.560 --> 1:47:47.440
 that are like unreliable, they're definitely not secure.

1:47:48.440 --> 1:47:51.240
 Your car should always do something safe

1:47:51.240 --> 1:47:53.400
 using its local sensors.

1:47:53.400 --> 1:47:55.240
 And then the local sensor should be hardwired.

1:47:55.240 --> 1:47:57.400
 And then could somebody hack into your can boss

1:47:57.400 --> 1:47:58.640
 and turn your steering wheel on your brakes?

1:47:58.640 --> 1:48:01.240
 Yes, but they could do it before comma AI too, so.

1:48:02.800 --> 1:48:04.680
 Let's think out of the box and some things.

1:48:04.680 --> 1:48:09.400
 So do you think teleoperation has a role in any of this?

1:48:09.400 --> 1:48:13.880
 So remotely stepping in and controlling the cars?

1:48:13.880 --> 1:48:18.880
 No, I think that if the safety operation

1:48:21.320 --> 1:48:26.160
 by design requires a constant link to the cars,

1:48:26.160 --> 1:48:27.560
 I think it doesn't work.

1:48:27.560 --> 1:48:31.080
 So that's the same argument used for V2I, V2V.

1:48:31.080 --> 1:48:34.280
 Well, there's a lot of non safety critical stuff

1:48:34.280 --> 1:48:35.120
 you can do with V2I.

1:48:35.120 --> 1:48:37.440
 I like V2I, I like V2I way more than V2V

1:48:37.440 --> 1:48:39.280
 because V2I is already like,

1:48:39.280 --> 1:48:40.880
 I already have internet in the car, right?

1:48:40.880 --> 1:48:43.280
 There's a lot of great stuff you can do with V2I.

1:48:44.280 --> 1:48:46.320
 Like for example, you can,

1:48:46.320 --> 1:48:48.880
 well, where I already have V2V, Waze is V2I, right?

1:48:48.880 --> 1:48:50.520
 Waze can route me around traffic jams.

1:48:50.520 --> 1:48:52.760
 That's a great example of V2I.

1:48:52.760 --> 1:48:54.440
 And then, okay, the car automatically talks

1:48:54.440 --> 1:48:55.800
 to that same service, like it works.

1:48:55.800 --> 1:48:56.800
 So it's improving the experience,

1:48:56.800 --> 1:48:59.480
 but it's not a fundamental fallback for safety.

1:48:59.480 --> 1:49:04.160
 No, if any of your things that require

1:49:04.160 --> 1:49:07.480
 wireless communication are more than QM,

1:49:07.480 --> 1:49:10.640
 like have an ASL rating, you shouldn't.

1:49:10.640 --> 1:49:14.200
 You previously said that life is work

1:49:15.440 --> 1:49:17.480
 and that you don't do anything to relax.

1:49:17.480 --> 1:49:20.800
 So how do you think about hard work?

1:49:20.800 --> 1:49:22.200
 Well, what is it?

1:49:22.200 --> 1:49:24.720
 What do you think it takes to accomplish great things?

1:49:24.720 --> 1:49:25.840
 And there's a lot of people saying

1:49:25.840 --> 1:49:28.280
 that there needs to be some balance.

1:49:28.280 --> 1:49:29.600
 You know, you need to,

1:49:29.600 --> 1:49:31.120
 in order to accomplish great things,

1:49:31.120 --> 1:49:32.200
 you need to take some time off,

1:49:32.200 --> 1:49:34.640
 you need to reflect and so on.

1:49:34.640 --> 1:49:37.840
 And then some people are just insanely working,

1:49:37.840 --> 1:49:39.640
 burning the candle on both ends.

1:49:39.640 --> 1:49:41.360
 How do you think about that?

1:49:41.360 --> 1:49:43.400
 I think I was trolling in the Suraj interview

1:49:43.400 --> 1:49:45.600
 when I said that off camera,

1:49:45.600 --> 1:49:47.240
 but right before I spoke to a little bit of weed,

1:49:47.240 --> 1:49:49.800
 like, you know, come on, this is a joke, right?

1:49:49.800 --> 1:49:50.880
 Like I do nothing to relax.

1:49:50.880 --> 1:49:52.560
 Look where I am, I'm at a party, right?

1:49:52.560 --> 1:49:53.960
 Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure.

1:49:53.960 --> 1:49:55.200
 That's true.

1:49:55.200 --> 1:49:58.040
 So no, no, of course I don't.

1:49:58.040 --> 1:49:59.800
 When I say that life is work though,

1:49:59.800 --> 1:50:01.960
 I mean that like, I think that

1:50:01.960 --> 1:50:04.200
 what gives my life meaning is work.

1:50:04.200 --> 1:50:05.720
 I don't mean that every minute of the day

1:50:05.720 --> 1:50:06.560
 you should be working.

1:50:06.560 --> 1:50:08.000
 I actually think this is not the best way

1:50:08.000 --> 1:50:09.800
 to maximize results.

1:50:09.800 --> 1:50:12.040
 I think that if you're working 12 hours a day,

1:50:12.040 --> 1:50:14.920
 you should be working smarter and not harder.

1:50:14.920 --> 1:50:17.880
 Well, so it gives work gives you meaning

1:50:17.880 --> 1:50:20.520
 for some people, other sorts of meaning

1:50:20.520 --> 1:50:24.560
 is personal relationships, like family and so on.

1:50:24.560 --> 1:50:27.200
 You've also in that interview with Suraj

1:50:27.200 --> 1:50:30.720
 or the trolling mentioned that one of the things

1:50:30.720 --> 1:50:33.400
 you look forward to in the future is AI girlfriends.

1:50:33.400 --> 1:50:34.360
 Yes.

1:50:34.360 --> 1:50:38.800
 So that's a topic that I'm very much fascinated by,

1:50:38.800 --> 1:50:39.840
 not necessarily girlfriends,

1:50:39.840 --> 1:50:41.880
 but just forming a deep connection with AI.

1:50:41.880 --> 1:50:42.960
 Yeah.

1:50:42.960 --> 1:50:44.400
 What kind of system do you imagine

1:50:44.400 --> 1:50:46.240
 when you say AI girlfriend,

1:50:46.240 --> 1:50:47.800
 whether you were trolling or not?

1:50:47.800 --> 1:50:49.720
 No, that one I'm very serious about.

1:50:49.720 --> 1:50:52.360
 And I'm serious about that on both a shallow level

1:50:52.360 --> 1:50:53.680
 and a deep level.

1:50:53.680 --> 1:50:55.720
 I think that VR brothels are coming soon

1:50:55.720 --> 1:50:57.800
 and are gonna be really cool.

1:50:57.800 --> 1:50:59.760
 It's not cheating if it's a robot.

1:50:59.760 --> 1:51:01.080
 I see the slogan already.

1:51:01.080 --> 1:51:04.320
 Um, but...

1:51:04.320 --> 1:51:06.200
 There's a, I don't know if you've watched

1:51:06.200 --> 1:51:08.320
 or just watched the Black Mirror episode.

1:51:08.320 --> 1:51:09.320
 I watched the latest one, yeah.

1:51:09.320 --> 1:51:11.320
 Yeah, yeah.

1:51:11.320 --> 1:51:13.160
 Oh, the Ashley 2 one?

1:51:13.160 --> 1:51:15.120
 Or the...

1:51:15.120 --> 1:51:16.920
 No, where there's two friends

1:51:16.920 --> 1:51:20.160
 who were having sex with each other in...

1:51:20.160 --> 1:51:21.240
 Oh, in the VR game.

1:51:21.240 --> 1:51:23.560
 In the VR game, it's the two guys,

1:51:23.560 --> 1:51:26.720
 but one of them was a female, yeah.

1:51:26.720 --> 1:51:27.560
 Yeah, the...

1:51:27.560 --> 1:51:29.560
 Which is another mind blowing concept.

1:51:29.560 --> 1:51:33.320
 That in VR, you don't have to be the form.

1:51:33.320 --> 1:51:37.720
 You can be two animals having sex, it's weird.

1:51:37.720 --> 1:51:38.560
 I mean, I'll see how nice

1:51:38.560 --> 1:51:40.280
 that the software maps the nerve endings, right?

1:51:40.280 --> 1:51:41.600
 Yeah, it's weird.

1:51:41.600 --> 1:51:44.480
 I mean, yeah, they sweep a lot of the fascinating,

1:51:44.480 --> 1:51:46.440
 really difficult technical challenges under the rug,

1:51:46.440 --> 1:51:48.360
 like assuming it's possible

1:51:48.360 --> 1:51:51.160
 to do the mapping of the nerve endings, then...

1:51:51.160 --> 1:51:52.000
 I wish, yeah, I saw that.

1:51:52.000 --> 1:51:53.800
 The way they did it with the little like stim unit

1:51:53.800 --> 1:51:55.400
 on the head, that'd be amazing.

1:51:56.800 --> 1:51:58.760
 So, well, no, no, on a shallow level,

1:51:58.760 --> 1:52:01.640
 like you could set up like almost a brothel

1:52:01.640 --> 1:52:05.160
 with like real dolls and Oculus quests,

1:52:05.160 --> 1:52:06.200
 write some good software.

1:52:06.200 --> 1:52:08.280
 I think it'd be a cool novelty experience.

1:52:09.280 --> 1:52:11.400
 But no, on a deeper, like emotional level.

1:52:12.800 --> 1:52:16.960
 I mean, yeah, I would really like to fall in love

1:52:16.960 --> 1:52:18.120
 with the machine.

1:52:18.120 --> 1:52:23.120
 Do you see yourself having a long term relationship

1:52:23.120 --> 1:52:27.520
 of the kind monogamous relationship that we have now

1:52:27.520 --> 1:52:31.360
 with the robot, with the AI system, even?

1:52:31.360 --> 1:52:32.680
 Not even just the robot.

1:52:32.680 --> 1:52:37.680
 So, I think about maybe my ideal future.

1:52:38.200 --> 1:52:43.200
 When I was 15, I read Eliezer Yudkowsky's early writings

1:52:44.320 --> 1:52:49.120
 on the singularity and like that AI

1:52:49.120 --> 1:52:53.040
 is going to surpass human intelligence massively.

1:52:53.040 --> 1:52:55.480
 He made some Moore's law based predictions

1:52:55.480 --> 1:52:57.400
 that I mostly agree with.

1:52:57.400 --> 1:52:59.360
 And then I really struggled

1:52:59.360 --> 1:53:01.360
 for the next couple of years of my life.

1:53:01.360 --> 1:53:03.360
 Like, why should I even bother to learn anything?

1:53:03.360 --> 1:53:06.160
 It's all gonna be meaningless when the machine show up.

1:53:06.160 --> 1:53:07.000
 Right.

1:53:07.000 --> 1:53:10.520
 Well, maybe when I was that young,

1:53:10.520 --> 1:53:12.040
 I was still a little bit more pure

1:53:12.040 --> 1:53:13.160
 and really like clung to that.

1:53:13.160 --> 1:53:14.720
 And then I'm like, well, the machine's ain't here yet.

1:53:14.720 --> 1:53:16.800
 You know, and I seem to be pretty good at this stuff.

1:53:16.800 --> 1:53:18.520
 Let's try my best, you know,

1:53:18.520 --> 1:53:20.320
 like what's the worst that happens?

1:53:20.320 --> 1:53:23.440
 But the best possible future I see

1:53:23.440 --> 1:53:26.120
 is me sort of merging with the machine.

1:53:26.120 --> 1:53:28.120
 And the way that I personify this

1:53:28.120 --> 1:53:30.800
 is in a longterm and augments relationship with the machine.

1:53:32.160 --> 1:53:33.320
 Oh, you don't think there's room

1:53:33.320 --> 1:53:35.040
 for another human in your life

1:53:35.040 --> 1:53:37.440
 if you really truly merge with another machine?

1:53:38.440 --> 1:53:40.240
 I mean, I see merging.

1:53:40.240 --> 1:53:44.240
 I see like the best interface to my brain

1:53:45.520 --> 1:53:48.000
 is like the same relationship interface

1:53:48.000 --> 1:53:49.320
 to merge with an AI, right?

1:53:49.320 --> 1:53:51.440
 What does that merging feel like?

1:53:52.440 --> 1:53:55.320
 I've seen couples who've been together for a long time

1:53:55.320 --> 1:53:57.840
 and like, I almost think of them as one person.

1:53:57.840 --> 1:54:01.280
 Like couples who spend all their time together and...

1:54:01.280 --> 1:54:02.120
 That's fascinating.

1:54:02.120 --> 1:54:03.320
 You're actually putting,

1:54:03.320 --> 1:54:05.520
 what does that merging actually looks like?

1:54:05.520 --> 1:54:07.600
 It's not just a nice channel.

1:54:07.600 --> 1:54:11.640
 Like a lot of people imagine it's just an efficient link,

1:54:11.640 --> 1:54:13.800
 search link to Wikipedia or something.

1:54:13.800 --> 1:54:14.640
 I don't believe in that.

1:54:14.640 --> 1:54:17.120
 But it's more, you're saying that there's the same kind of,

1:54:17.120 --> 1:54:19.520
 the same kind of relationship you have with another human

1:54:19.520 --> 1:54:22.960
 as a deep relationship is that's what merging looks like.

1:54:22.960 --> 1:54:24.480
 That's pretty...

1:54:24.480 --> 1:54:26.680
 I don't believe that link is possible.

1:54:26.680 --> 1:54:28.120
 I think that that link, so you're like,

1:54:28.120 --> 1:54:30.160
 oh, I'm gonna download Wikipedia right to my brain.

1:54:30.160 --> 1:54:33.360
 My reading speed is not limited by my eyes.

1:54:33.360 --> 1:54:36.800
 My reading speed is limited by my inner processing loop.

1:54:36.800 --> 1:54:38.680
 And to like bootstrap that

1:54:38.680 --> 1:54:42.440
 sounds kind of unclear how to do it and horrifying.

1:54:42.440 --> 1:54:46.560
 But if I am with somebody, and I'll use somebody

1:54:46.560 --> 1:54:51.400
 who is making a super sophisticated model of me

1:54:51.400 --> 1:54:53.200
 and then running simulations on that model,

1:54:53.200 --> 1:54:54.120
 I'm not gonna get into the question

1:54:54.120 --> 1:54:55.880
 whether the simulations are conscious or not.

1:54:55.880 --> 1:54:58.240
 I don't really wanna know what it's doing.

1:54:58.240 --> 1:55:01.600
 But using those simulations to play out hypothetical futures

1:55:01.600 --> 1:55:04.880
 for me, deciding what things to say to me

1:55:04.880 --> 1:55:08.720
 to guide me along a path and that's how I envision it.

1:55:08.720 --> 1:55:13.720
 So on that path to AI of super human level intelligence,

1:55:13.720 --> 1:55:15.680
 you've mentioned that you believe in the singularity,

1:55:15.680 --> 1:55:17.280
 that singularity is coming.

1:55:17.280 --> 1:55:20.440
 Again, could be trolling, could be not, could be part...

1:55:20.440 --> 1:55:21.760
 All trolling has truth in it.

1:55:21.760 --> 1:55:22.840
 I don't know what that means anymore.

1:55:22.840 --> 1:55:24.520
 What is the singularity?

1:55:24.520 --> 1:55:26.720
 So yeah, so that's really the question.

1:55:26.720 --> 1:55:29.280
 How many years do you think before the singularity

1:55:29.280 --> 1:55:30.920
 of what form do you think it will take?

1:55:30.920 --> 1:55:34.200
 Does that mean fundamental shifts in capabilities of AI?

1:55:34.200 --> 1:55:36.960
 Does it mean some other kind of ideas?

1:55:36.960 --> 1:55:40.120
 Maybe that's just my roots, but...

1:55:40.120 --> 1:55:42.920
 So I can buy a human being's worth of computers

1:55:42.920 --> 1:55:46.000
 for things worth of compute for like a million bucks a day.

1:55:46.000 --> 1:55:47.800
 It's about one TPU pod V3.

1:55:47.800 --> 1:55:50.240
 I want like, I think they claim a hundred pay to flops.

1:55:50.240 --> 1:55:51.080
 That's being generous.

1:55:51.080 --> 1:55:52.320
 I think humans are actually more like 20.

1:55:52.320 --> 1:55:53.160
 So that's like five humans.

1:55:53.160 --> 1:55:54.040
 That's pretty good.

1:55:54.040 --> 1:55:55.560
 Google needs to sell their TPUs.

1:55:56.840 --> 1:55:58.640
 But no, I could buy GPUs.

1:55:58.640 --> 1:56:02.280
 I could buy a stack of like, I buy 1080TIs,

1:56:02.280 --> 1:56:03.880
 build data center full of them.

1:56:03.880 --> 1:56:07.280
 And for a million bucks, I can get a human worth of compute.

1:56:08.160 --> 1:56:12.280
 But when you look at the total number of flops in the world,

1:56:12.280 --> 1:56:14.400
 when you look at human flops,

1:56:14.400 --> 1:56:17.040
 which goes up very, very slowly with the population,

1:56:17.040 --> 1:56:19.760
 and machine flops, which goes up exponentially,

1:56:19.760 --> 1:56:22.360
 but it's still nowhere near.

1:56:22.360 --> 1:56:24.040
 I think that's the key thing

1:56:24.040 --> 1:56:25.880
 to talk about when the singularity happened.

1:56:25.880 --> 1:56:28.560
 When most flops in the world are silicon

1:56:28.560 --> 1:56:32.280
 and not biological, that's kind of the crossing point.

1:56:32.280 --> 1:56:35.480
 Like they are now the dominant species on the planet.

1:56:35.480 --> 1:56:38.720
 And just looking at how technology is progressing,

1:56:38.720 --> 1:56:40.360
 when do you think that could possibly happen?

1:56:40.360 --> 1:56:41.680
 Do you think it would happen in your lifetime?

1:56:41.680 --> 1:56:43.640
 Oh yeah, definitely in my lifetime.

1:56:43.640 --> 1:56:44.480
 I've done the math.

1:56:44.480 --> 1:56:47.560
 I like 2038 because it's the UNIX timestamp roll over.

1:56:49.920 --> 1:56:51.840
 Yeah, beautifully put.

1:56:52.680 --> 1:56:57.680
 So you've said that the meaning of life is to win.

1:56:58.000 --> 1:56:59.560
 If you look five years into the future,

1:56:59.560 --> 1:57:01.000
 what does winning look like?

1:57:02.640 --> 1:57:03.720
 So...

1:57:03.720 --> 1:57:08.720
 I can go into technical depth to what I mean by that, to win.

1:57:11.720 --> 1:57:12.720
 It may not mean...

1:57:12.720 --> 1:57:14.400
 I was criticized for that in the comments.

1:57:14.400 --> 1:57:17.720
 Like, doesn't this guy want to save the penguins in Antarctica?

1:57:17.720 --> 1:57:20.960
 Or like, oh man, listen to what I'm saying.

1:57:20.960 --> 1:57:23.720
 I'm not talking about like I have a yacht or something.

1:57:24.720 --> 1:57:26.720
 I am an agent.

1:57:26.720 --> 1:57:28.720
 I am put into this world.

1:57:28.720 --> 1:57:32.720
 And I don't really know what my purpose is.

1:57:33.720 --> 1:57:36.720
 But if you're a reinforcement, if you're an intelligent agent

1:57:36.720 --> 1:57:39.720
 and you're put into a world, what is the ideal thing to do?

1:57:39.720 --> 1:57:41.720
 Well, the ideal thing, mathematically,

1:57:41.720 --> 1:57:43.720
 you can go back to like Schmidt Hoover theories about this,

1:57:43.720 --> 1:57:46.720
 is to build a compressive model of the world.

1:57:46.720 --> 1:57:49.720
 To build a maximally compressive to explore the world

1:57:49.720 --> 1:57:52.720
 such that your exploration function maximizes

1:57:52.720 --> 1:57:55.720
 the derivative of compression of the past.

1:57:55.720 --> 1:57:58.720
 Schmidt Hoover has a paper about this.

1:57:58.720 --> 1:58:01.720
 And like, I took that kind of as like a personal goal function.

1:58:02.720 --> 1:58:04.720
 So what I mean to win, I mean like,

1:58:04.720 --> 1:58:08.720
 maybe this is religious, but like I think that in the future

1:58:08.720 --> 1:58:10.720
 I might be given a real purpose.

1:58:10.720 --> 1:58:12.720
 Or I may decide this purpose myself.

1:58:12.720 --> 1:58:14.720
 And then at that point, now I know what the game is

1:58:14.720 --> 1:58:15.720
 and I know how to win.

1:58:15.720 --> 1:58:18.720
 I think right now I'm still just trying to figure out what the game is.

1:58:18.720 --> 1:58:19.720
 But once I know...

1:58:20.720 --> 1:58:22.720
 So you have...

1:58:22.720 --> 1:58:25.720
 You have imperfect information.

1:58:25.720 --> 1:58:27.720
 You have a lot of uncertainty about the reward function

1:58:27.720 --> 1:58:28.720
 and you're discovering it.

1:58:28.720 --> 1:58:29.720
 Exactly.

1:58:29.720 --> 1:58:30.720
 But the purpose is...

1:58:30.720 --> 1:58:31.720
 That's a better way to put it.

1:58:31.720 --> 1:58:33.720
 The purpose is to maximize it

1:58:33.720 --> 1:58:36.720
 while you have a lot of uncertainty around it.

1:58:36.720 --> 1:58:38.720
 And you're both reducing the uncertainty

1:58:38.720 --> 1:58:40.720
 and maximizing at the same time.

1:58:40.720 --> 1:58:43.720
 And so that's at the technical level.

1:58:43.720 --> 1:58:44.720
 What is the...

1:58:44.720 --> 1:58:46.720
 If you believe in the universal prior,

1:58:46.720 --> 1:58:48.720
 what is the universal reward function?

1:58:48.720 --> 1:58:50.720
 That's the better way to put it.

1:58:50.720 --> 1:58:53.720
 So that win is interesting.

1:58:53.720 --> 1:58:56.720
 I think I speak for everyone in saying that

1:58:56.720 --> 1:59:01.720
 I wonder what that reward function is for you.

1:59:01.720 --> 1:59:06.720
 And I look forward to seeing that in five years and ten years.

1:59:06.720 --> 1:59:09.720
 I think a lot of people including myself are cheering you on, man.

1:59:09.720 --> 1:59:11.720
 So I'm happy you exist.

1:59:11.720 --> 1:59:13.720
 And I wish you the best of luck.

1:59:13.720 --> 1:59:14.720
 Thanks for talking today, man.

1:59:14.720 --> 1:59:15.720
 Thank you.

1:59:15.720 --> 1:59:20.720
 This was a lot of fun.