Patent Document ID: 8185347
Application ID: 11021591
Patent Status: 1

Claim One:
1. A method comprising: determining characteristic parameters on the basis of a series of m values (H — 1, H — 2,. .. , H_m) over time, the values being descriptive for a predetermined production process in a Supply Chain Management application, the series having linear characteristics, the determining including: a) computing differences, denoted as Δ_i, between pairs of values (H_i, H_i+p) of points (t_i, t_i+p) of the historical time series, the points having a predetermined time distance to each other, denoted as p; b) determining the median value, denoted as Δ_i_M, of the computed differences Δ_i; c) computing, on the basis of the determined median value Δ_i_M, a trend parameter, denoted as T, T being defined as T=Δ — 1_M/p; and forecasting, in a computer, a process on the basis of a series of values over time (H — 1, H — 2,. .. , H_m), the values representing a historical series which is descriptive for the process having the characteristic parameters found in the determining, the series having linear characteristics, the forecasting including: a) for each value of the historical series (H — 1, H — 2,. .. , H_m), computing a basic value G, the basic value representing the transition between past and present, the basic value G being defined by G=H+t_i_T, with H being the value of the historical time series at the time point −t_i; b) computing the median basic value G_M over all the computed basic values G; and c) computing forecast values F, the forecast values being defined as F=(G_M+t_i T), with t_i being the time point of the forecast value F.