Patent Document ID: 20020026347
Application ID: 09929356
Patent Status: 0

Claim One:
1. A method of forecasting future orders of parts for products sold to customers, comprising the steps of: determining a time-course record of orders with respect to each part and extracting low-order-rate parts whose order records show order rate to have fallen below the predetermined level; determining from each such order record at least one parameter indicating a characteristic of orders after the order rate fell below the predetermined level, classifying the extracted low-order-rate parts into multiple categories and using the parameter indicating the characteristic of orders to calculate for each of the multiple categories an order occurrence probability distribution; carrying out Monte Carlo simulation based on the calculated order occurrence probability distributions to determine occurrence rate probability distributions of number of orders during a predetermined period; and forecasting future number of orders of the low-order-rate parts based on the calculated occurrence rate probability distributions of number of orders during the predetermined period.