Patent Document ID: 9864354
Application ID: 13581450
Patent Status: 1

Claim One:
1. A method of development planning in a hydrocarbon management scenario, comprising: creating a hierarchy of models of a hydrocarbon management system, comprising: obtaining a sufficiently-fine level of detail and a ground truth level of detail, wherein the sufficiently-fine level of detail is a coarser level of detail as compared to the ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension; identifying modeling dimensions in which known parameters and uncertainties relevant to the hydrocarbon management system are represented; generating a ground-truth model based on the ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension; generating a sufficiently-fine model based on the sufficiently-fine level of detail for each modeling dimension; estimating a parameter space that expresses outcomes of model instances in the sufficiently-fine model; using a computer, running ground-truth model instances to generate results of the ground-truth model, the ground-truth model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; generating a first intermediate model by identifying a first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension generally between the ground-truth level of detail and the sufficiently fine level of detail; using a computer, running first intermediate model instances to generate results of the first intermediate model, the first intermediate model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; determining whether the first intermediate model is sufficiently calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the first intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model, wherein sufficiently calibrated means that the first intermediate model can be used as a proxy for the ground-truth model to enable a development planning decision to be made; when the first intermediate model is not sufficiently calibrated to the ground-truth model, generating a second intermediate model by identifying a second intermediate level of detail generally between the ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension and the first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension, running second intermediate model instances to generate results of the second intermediate model, determining whether the second intermediate model is sufficiently calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the second intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model; when one of the first and second intermediate models is sufficiently calibrated to the ground-truth model, connecting one of the first and second intermediate models to the sufficiently-fine model; outputting one or more model instances of the sufficiently-fine model, the first intermediate model instances, and the second intermediate model instances; making a decision regarding size, timing, or location of a production facility, a potential subsequent expansion of a production facility, or a connection to a production facility based at least in part on the output model instances; and causing the decision to be performed for the production facility.