Patent Document ID: 10087723
Application ID: 14977823
Patent Status: 1

Claim One:
1. A computerized method performed by a computer system to automatically select most likely simulated basin results produced by a user selected stratigraphic forward model simulation program as a function of available geologic data used to derive a plurality of forward model input parameters for said stratigraphic forward model simulation program and available observed measurements of an actual basin used to derive a plurality of validation data values of said actual basin, said method comprising: calculating by said computer system a probability distribution for each of said plurality of validation data values; calculating by said computer system a probability distribution for each of said plurality of forward model input parameters; creating by said computer system a plurality of forward model input parameter sets by varying each of said plurality of forward model input parameters within a range of each of said plurality of forward model input parameters such that each of said plurality of forward model input parameter sets is unique from other forward model input parameter sets within said plurality of forward model input parameter sets; executing by said computer system said stratigraphic forward model simulation program with each forward model parameter set of said plurality of forward model parameter sets in order to obtain a plurality of stratigraphic simulation model results such that each stratigraphic simulation model result of said plurality of stratigraphic simulation model results is uniquely associated with said forward model input parameter set of said plurality of forward model input parameter sets used to obtain each stratigraphic simulation model result; evaluating by said computer system each stratigraphic simulation model result of said plurality of stratigraphic simulation model results to obtain a plurality of simulation validation data values for each stratigraphic simulation model result at a location on each stratigraphic simulation model result comparable to said plurality of validation data values of said actual basin; determining by said computer system probabilities for each simulation validation data value of each of said plurality of simulation data values for each stratigraphic simulation model result of said plurality of simulation model results based on said calculated probability distribution of each comparable validation data value of said plurality of validation data values of said actual basin; determining by said computer system probabilities for each forward model input parameter of said plurality of forward model input parameters of each forward model input parameter set of said plurality of forward model input parameter sets associated with each stratigraphic simulation model result of said plurality of said stratigraphic simulation model results based on said calculated probability distribution of each forward model input parameter of said plurality of forward model input parameters; calculating by said computer system a simulation model result likelihood for each stratigraphic simulation model result of said plurality of stratigraphic simulation model results, by combining together said determined probabilities of said plurality of forward model input parameters of said forward model input parameter set associated with each stratigraphic simulation model result to obtain a combination of forward model input parameter probabilities for each stratigraphic simulation model result, combining together said probabilities of said plurality of simulation validation data values associated with each stratigraphic simulation model result to obtain a combination of simulation validation data value probabilities for each stratigraphic simulation model result, and then combining said combination of forward model input parameter probabilities with said combination of simulation validation data value probabilities for each stratigraphic simulation model result to obtain said simulation model result likelihood for each stratigraphic simulation model result; and selecting automatically by said computer system at least one stratigraphic simulation model result and associated forward model input parameter set as most likely as a function of said at least one stratigraphic simulation model result having a higher simulation model result likelihood than other stratigraphic simulation model results of said plurality stratigraphic simulation model results.