Patent Document ID: 8768745
Application ID: 12183154
Patent Status: 1

Claim One:
1. A print demand forecasting system for use with a print production system in which multiple print jobs are processed over a selected time interval, comprising: a data collection tool, said data collection tool collecting print demand data for each print job processed during the selected time interval; mass memory for storing the collected print demand data; a computer implemented service manager for processing the stored print demand data to obtain a first time series component and a second time series component, said computer implemented service manager corresponding the first time series component with a first forecast model and the second time series component with a second forecast model; and a selector process, operating with said computer implemented service manager to select one of the first forecast model and the second forecast model by: solving a plurality of first logistic regression equations associated with the first forecast model to determine a first estimation of one or more probability values for a next observation, wherein the plurality of first logistic regression equations vary as a function of the first time series component, solving a plurality of second logistic regression equations associated with the second forecast model to determine a second estimation of one or more probability values for a next observation, wherein the plurality of second logistic regression equations vary as a function of the second time series component, wherein one or more of the first estimation and the second estimation have an error of 2.4% or less, and selecting one of the first forecast model and the second forecast model whose estimation is associated with a highest probability value, wherein the selected one of the first forecast model and the second forecast model is used to obtain forecast data forecasting print production demand for a selected time outside of the selected time interval, wherein the selector process is configured to: smooth the print demand data to obtain smoothed values, compute a histogram with the smoothed values, obtain at least one threshold from the histogram, and use the at least one threshold to segment the print demand data.