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Mars would suggest that life in the solar system originated on at least two planets. The discovery of microbial life on Jupiter's moon Europa would demonstrate that single-celled life can arise and survive permanently independent of direct sunlight. The search for traces of fossil or recent life in the solar system will help to determine the factor \(f_l\) more precisely in the future. Currently, many authors assume that simple life could evolve as soon as it is physically and chemically possible. If simple life emerged after 300 million years, why did the evolution to intelligent life take more than 4.5 billion years? Life remained unicellular for the first 2.5 billion years. If you could visit the Earth of that time, you would find a planet not unlike Mars, but with oceans, but Mars had those too in its early days. White clouds would pass through a shimmering orange, oxygen-poor atmosphere. There were few visible traces of life. One was stromatolites, limestone formations whose slimy surface was one of the few visible signs of microbial life. 2 billion years ago, the first cyanobacteria had begun to produce oxygen. Then, in Earth-historical dimensions only a little later, something happened that was to fundamentally change the further development of life. Somewhere, perhaps at the edge of a geothermal spring or in a tidal pool at the seashore, several bacteria entered into a symbiosis and formed a new cell type. More importantly, this new cell type was able to procreate and thus survived! Important evolutionary steps on the way to intelligent life. The transition from prokaryotes to eukaryotes was complete. In the cells, mitochondria now supplied the cell with energy, the nucleus contained the genetic material, and a cell membrane protected the new cell. A new type of unicellular life had emerged. Larger cells that could work more effectively through division of labor. On a geological scale, shortly thereafter, the first multicellular organisms emerged. A step in evolution that prokaryotes never succeeded in taking, but which has been independently demonstrated more than 25 times in eukaryotes. From multicellular organisms vertebrates and plants should develop later, but the invasion of the land would have to wait for another billion years. Today one calls this time the "Cambrian explosion". In a short time span of 5 to 10 million years the precursors of all species known today developed. Every plant, every insect, every vertebrate that we know today or of which fossils have ever been found only came into being in the last 500 million years. For the factor \(f_i\) this could mean that the formation of intelligent life takes a very long time. This is not certain, and there may well be good reasons why it has taken a long time on Earth. However, statistical studies suggest that it is more likely that \(f_i\) is significantly less than 1 [3]. \(f_c\) - Proportion of civilizations that send detectable signals into space. A civilization will inevitably send signals into space at certain points in its technological development. This could be a conscious decision, but it is considerably more likely that they are technology signatures, such as radio waves, which are emitted only as a side effect. The analog signals from Earth's first radio transmissions have now penetrated more than 100 light-years into space. However, since their transmission strength decreases with the square of the distance, they are likely to be very difficult to receive, if at all. In todays terrestrial radio transmissions, only a small amount of energy is radiated into space, because anything else would be a waste of energy, since all the receivers are located on Earth. The time of strong radio emissions on earth is coming to an end. The frequencies are getting larger and larger in order to transmit data faster, the transmission power is getting smaller because the reception technology has developed further. Television towers are increasingly being replaced by geostationary satellites, which use much less transmitting power. If they still transmit, it is often with directional radio. Radio and television transmissions are increasingly being delivered via the Internet's cable networks. When terrestrial broadcasting actually still occurs, it is in compressed digital format that is difficult to distinguish from noise. But not all communication is terrestrial. Once a civilization begins to explore its planetary system, it will need to communicate with its own spacecraft. For this type of communication, large radio antennas will be built to deliver their energy in a specific direction, and if the signals are delivered in pulse form, much higher transmission strengths can be achieved. The range of the signals is much greater, but they are sent only in the direction of the spacecraft and therefore can be received only on planetary systems behind it. The energy expenditure to actively send signals into space is enormous, the benefit questionable. In which frequency band and how should be sent? With radio waves or rather lasers? Furthermore, there could be good reasons why civilizations, despite existing capability, do not want to communicate or even actively obscure the technology signatures of their planet. Any estimation of \(f_c\) remains pure speculation. However, it is plausible to assume that due to involuntary radio emissions alone, the probability is significant and greater than 0. However, the comparatively short range severely limits the receivability of the signals. The transmission and reception technology has made enormous progress in the last 50 years. By interconnecting several radio telescopes, it is now possible to create virtual antennas on a scale that seemed unthinkable a few years ago. In 2012, for the SETI project, several radio telescopes distributed around the globe were connected for the first time by means of Very Long Baseline Interferometry in order to examine the star Gliese 581, 20 light-years away, for radio emissions. Nothing was found. [8] Detection of faint signals from several light-years away is now, if not already within the realm of the technically possible, at least within the realm of the technically conceivable. But radio emissions are not the only detectable technology signature. It is conceivable that future generations of infrared telescopes could directly detect the heat signature of cities on exoplanets. Better optical telescopes could detect space debris in orbit around a planet, or large-scale technological structures "parked" at Lagrangian points or in geostationary orbit around a planet. An optimistic upper limit for \(f_c\) is therefore assumed to be 0.6. Perhaps it is more difficult than expected to detect the technology signatures of other civilizations. Most communication on Earth today is encrypted, compressed, and digital. To outsiders, it might sound like noise. In the original formulation of the Drake equation \(f_c\) was estimated to be 0.1 to 0.2. Therefore, 0.1 shall serve as a lower limit here. \(L\) - Total time over which the civilizations are detectable. Although actively transmitting civilizations are unlikely, it is reasonable to assume that a technological civilization in its immediate vicinity should be detectable only as a result of its involuntarily emitted signals. The total period of detectability depends on many factors. However, the lifetime of the technologically active civilization plays a crucial role. How long does a technological civilization exist? The lifetime could be limited by natural disasters on a planetary scale. Asteroid impacts, neighboring supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, or increased stellar activity have the potential to adversely affect a civilization or all life on a planet. Technological civilizations may be able to protect themselves to some extent from such events, but Earth history shows that mass extinctions are not uncommon. A study of 60 past civilizations on Earth concluded that the average lifespan of such a civilization is 420 years. [7] But how meaningful are such numbers? The decline of one civilization on Earth has usually been synonymous with the rise of another. Populations and technologies were often assimilated. Should we not rather speak of "human civilization" in relation to the Earth? On our planet there have been traces of different cultures for at least 5000 years and a line of development that can be drawn from the cultures of early times to the present day. One sees them in different language families, in cultural and scientific traditions. Why do we calculate today worldwide with Arabic numerals and not with Roman numerals? Why are Latin letters even on Chinese car license plates? The cultures on earth do not exist in isolation, they build on each other. The "world culture" of today is a mixture of the accumulated traditions and experiences of different civilizations over a period of more than 5000 years. Of these 5000 years, however, only the last 250 years since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution can be considered technological. During this time, mankind has managed to cause lasting damage to the vital ozone layer and to influence the climate several times. For example, severe air pollution in the second half of the 20th century led to a decrease in the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. An effect called "Global Dimming" was so alarming to some researchers in the 1970s that they feared a man-made ice age. This effect masked the rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and now that the atmosphere is cleaner in many places, we are seeing signs of global warming. Humanity has arrived in the Anthropocene, a (so far only proposed) geologic age in which humans have become the most important influence on the planet's ecosystem. Perhaps the age of mankind as a technological civilization should only be given as 75 years. This is the period since the detonation of the first atomic bomb. A weapon with which it was possible for the first time to destroy the complete biosphere of the planet. Currently, 9 nations have an estimated total of 14000 nuclear warheads. More than enough to set back life on the planet by several 100 million years. The optimistic assumption is that a civilization that has reached a certain level of technology can survive for a very long time. Mankind has proven that it can influence the earth's climate in one direction or another. A civilization
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