Source: https://snapdraft.rotowire.com/soccer/article.php?id=42354
Timestamp: 2019-04-23 16:24:09+00:00

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Harry Kane, TOT at CRY ($13,500): Given the lack of high-end options on this slate, there should be a lot of money to spend and it only makes sense to use Kane. He has the best odds to score, and that's what you're hoping for because his floor is generally under 10 fantasy points. I probably wouldn't consider Kane if Crystal Palace weren't struggling, but they've lost five of their last six in all competitions and already gave up multiple goals at home against Liverpool, Southampton and Arsenal. Marko Arnautovic ($12,000) has a better floor, but Huddersfield play extremely defensively at home and have allowed only 47 shots in their last five matches, fourth-best in the league.
Jamie Vardy, LEI v. BRN ($10,500): In this range, it's a fight between Vardy, Danny Ings ($11,000) and Callum Wilson ($10,000). I don't want to back Vardy because he hasn't been consistent, failing to surpass eight fantasy points in three of his last four. However, it's hard to ignore the matchup because Burnley have allowed 109 shots, including 35 on target, a league-high in the last five games. Because of that, Vardy has the second-best odds to score on the slate. As for Ings, Southampton have just one goal in their last four matches. Wilson will likely be a popular option since he's killing it, but Newcastle have a clean sheet in their last two matches.
Wilfried Zaha, CRY v. TOT ($8,500): There aren't many cheap forwards to consider unless Kelechi Iheanacho ($8,500) returns to the starting XI, and even then his floor is close to zero. Zaha is intriguing because he's at least been decent in the last two matches against Arsenal and Chelsea, creating six chances and making six tackles. If his floor reaches 10 fantasy points, he's not a bust, and it also helps that Spurs have allowed at least one goal in their last five matches in all competitions. The only other players with a floor at this price are Isaac Success and Ayoze Perez, and I can't bring myself to recommend them.
Marc Albrighton, LEI v. BRN ($7,500): Similar to the forwards, there aren't many enticing midfield options. Felipe Anderson ($9,000) will be a popular pick after scoring a brace last weekend, but I'd rather bet on Leicester against a Burnley team getting run over by everyone. Even without James Maddison, Leicester should grab a couple goals and Albrighton is my pick after playing 90 minutes in each of the last two matches. He's racked up a ridiculous 35 crosses in those starts, and more importantly will likely be on corners and set pieces with Maddison out. Hopefully, that will lead to the 24-point floor he had in the West Ham match. If Albrighton makes the score sheet, he could be one of the biggest steals on the slate. That's not the case for any of the higher-priced guys as Roberto Pereyra and Erik Lamela have no floor, while Christian Eriksen may not play a full 90 after going the entire way Tuesday against PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League.
Luka Milivojevic, CRY v. TOT ($8,000): Milivojevic looks like an odd play against Spurs on the surface, but he's had a surprisingly high floor for his price, scoring more than 15 points for most of the season. In addition to creating chances or getting a shot on goal, he's averaging a combined six tackles, interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes. You're not counting on him to score from the penalty spot, but his floor has been high enough to consider every week as a second midfielder. The other options at this price either have no upside or a smaller floor. Etienne Capoue ($8,500) and Wilfred Ndidi ($8,500) are in the same mold, but they cost a little more and don't take corners.
Ryan Fraser, BOU at NEW ($7,500): After a hot start to the season, Fraser has slowed down and that's why I'm tentative on this play. He's more valuable in GPP because most of his floor comes from creating chances and Newcastle have held back-to-back clean sheets. But assuming Newcastle don't dominate this match, Fraser could reach the floor he had against Man United (20 points) and he's more likely to make the score sheet than any of the other options near him. I like Kenedy because of his definite floor, but there's no upside. I'd also consider James Ward-Prowse at the same price if he gets another start because he has eight chances created in his last two starts, while Andros Townsend ($6,500) is as far down as I'd go, just don't put too many Crystal Palace players on you roster.
Steve Cook, BOU at NEW ($6,500): Cook doesn't have the same upside as Kieran Trippier ($7,500), but his floor is the same and that's good enough for a top defender. In the matches where he doesn't get a lot of clearances, he usually adds in other defensive stats and that's why he's finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points just two times this season. Even better is that Newcastle have surprisingly forced the fourth-most clearances (138) in the last five games, the same number as Liverpool.
Kevin Long, BRN at LEI ($4,500): Long comes at a discount since he's likely to start for James Tarkowski ($7,000), who is dealing with a groin problem. Long made 10 clearances in 63 minutes against Cardiff and in 16 starts last season averaged a combined 10 tackles and clearances per 90 minutes. If he starts, this is an easy pick because Leicester should be attacking most of the match. Simon Francis has a similar floor, while Kiko Femenia is the upside play as a fullback, both at the same price.
Jonny Evans, LEI v. BRN ($4,000): Evans is another defender set to start for an injured regular, this one being Harry Maguire. Since there aren't many others at this price, Evans is the play if you have to save money. His floor may be below 10 fantasy points, but he has a great chance for a clean sheet and that alone would be enough for him to make value.
Kasper Schmeichel, LEI v. BRN ($4,500): The goalkeeper prices remain hard to predict, and Schmeichel is an absolute steal as the biggest favorite with the fewest goals allowed expected on the slate. There are few reasons to spend up for someone like Hugo Lloris ($6,500) even though he's averaging close to 20 points. Schmeichel doesn't make many saves, but he should win and it's hard to see him giving up more than one goal against a Burnley side averaging just over one goal per match.

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