Source: http://www.thefroghorn.com/profile/497-jared/content/
Timestamp: 2019-04-19 00:26:48+00:00

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Cam Norrie lost this morning 2-6, 5-7 to Lorenzo Sorego in the Round of 16 at Monte Carlo. Making the third round is a good result for Cam after his failures at Indian Wells and Houston and this is his best ever performance in a Masters 1000 event, but Sorego is/was ranked #96, so it's still disappointing that Cam can't easily beat those ranked below him even while upsetting more highly ranked players.
Cam beat Fucsovics this morning 7-6 (7-3), 6-3 in the 2nd round at Monte Carlo and has advanced to to the third round (Round of 16) where he will play #96 Lorenzo Sonego, a 23-year-old 6' 3" Italian, who is also a clay specialist. Cam appears to have regained his winning form and he should be favored, so that means (to me) that he probably won't win this one.
The Camster's W was his first ever in a Masters 1000 level event. And, as projected by CTR (the "DUSHEE" of college tennis), TCU moved up to #7 in the nation, our highest ranking of the year, within the coveted Top 8 for possible super-regional purposes and ahead of our arch-rival Baylor, who came in at #8. Read em and weep Bears! 1. Ohio State (they reclaim the top spot) 2. Texas (L; last week was the first ever #1 ranking for the Longhorns and they fall one spot this week) 3. Florida (L) 4. Wake Forest 5. Virginia 6. Mississippi State (W; W in an exhibition) 7. the Fighting Frogs of lil ole TCU 8. Baylor (L) 9. North Carolina (L) 10. USC 11. A&M (W) 12. Stanford 13. Tennessee (W) 14. UCLA (W) 15. Illinois (W; W in an exhibition) 16. Columbia (W) 17. Georgia 18. Tech (W) 19. Michigan 20. N.C. State 21. Alabama 22. South Carolina 23. Notre Dame 24. Arizona 25. Oklahoma (W) 26. Mississippi 27. Arizona State (W; W in an exhibition) 32. Oklahoma State (W; W; next up in the Big 12 tourney on Friday) 39. Tulane (W) 46. USF (W although technically rained out) Alexandrovich Rybakovsky is now 3rd in singles; Alastair Gray is 24th; Rybo/Gray leapt up to 15th in doubles and Reese Stalder/Bertus Kruger are 17th (if they stay there, they all might make the NCAA's). We seem to be peaking nicely just as postseason play commences. Hopefully, we'll keep it up.
Cam beat Mannarino today for his first W in several weeks in the opening round at Monte Carlo 6-4, 6-3. He will now face #37 Marton Fucsovics, a 27-year-old player from Hungary in the 2nd round. He won't be favored as Fucsovic is best on clay, but Cam's matches don't always follow form, so we'll see.
Cam Norrie is off to Monaco where he is scheduled to play in the opening round of the Monte-Carlo Open tomorrow at 4:00 a.m. (CDT) against #58 Adrian Mannarino, a 30--year-old Frenchman. Due to his weak play in the last few weeks, Cam has slipped to #56, so this match (on clay) should be relatively even. Cam beat him the only time they've previously played 6-4, 6-4 in Los Cabos last year.
LOL. Tech's stunning upset of Baylor yesterday has caused CollegeTennisRanks to change their projections - TCU is now projected to pass Baylor and move up to #7 in tomorrow's ITA rankings, and Baylor will fall to 8th (despite the H2H advantage over us). Also, this means that Tech will probably be ranked #18th, within striking distance of hosting a regional if they can make it up to #16th which is possible if they beat OU Friday and certain if they could then beat Texas in the semis. The problem for Baylor is that they have 9 really good W's but this is the week that the ITA expands to the Top 10 W's and our 10th W is much more impressive than theirs. What if scenarios are speculative, but if we can beat Oklahoma State, and if either UNC, A&M or USC win their conference tourneys, our possible match against Baylor could decide who gets the Top 8 advantage and who doesn't. CTR also has a cool "what if" app and I ran it for us beating Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas, and if that happens, we could end up as high as 5th (and we'd knock Texas off the #1 perch). Kind of like DUSHEE, CTR is usually but not always predictive of what will happen with the ITA. We'll find out tomorrow when the rankings are released.
The Big 12 announced the seedings and schedule for this weekend's conference tournament championship and, as projected, we're the 3rd seed and will face #6 Oklahoma State (yet again) Friday at 12:00 noon in Lawrence. The Cowboys are 14-10 and have W's over ...- oh wait, just scroll back a few posts and read the preview for yesterday because it hasn't changed much... This will be the third time we've faced them this season so we know them fairly well - supposedly, it's tough to beat a team 3 times in a year, but I'm not sure if that applies in tennis. #4 Tech will face #5 OU in the other quarter and the winner of that will play #1 Texas in a semi and the winner of our match will play #2 Baylor in the other semi. Obviously, we want to win it, but if we don't, the least we want is to do well enough to preserve our expected #8 ranking, which means we need to do better than North Carolina, A&M and USC, who are chasing us in the rankings. It'd also be very cool if we can catch and pass Baylor and we'll have a good chance to do that if we can win 2 rounds. Texas is expected to be #1; Baylor to be #7 and TCU #8, so this will be a very stacked tourney.
Three matches remain and the Frogs lead 3-1. Gray and Kruger are into their 3rd sets after coming back to triumph in their 2nd sets. Fomba could still win in straight sets. Gray 0-0 in his 3rd; Kruger 3-2 in his 3rd; Fomba 3-4. Gray 1-0; Kruger 4-2!; Fomba 4-all. Gray 1-all; Kruger 5-3; Fomba 5-all. I'm betting on Bertus to clinch first... Gray 1-2; Kruger 5-4; Fomba 6-5. Maybe it'll be Luc to clinch... Bertus clinches 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 and the Frogs win 4-1!! We're 19-5 and clinched the #3 seed in the Big12 and a probable Top 8 ranking! A very impressive singles performance after getting beat in the doubles.
Trailing 1-0, the Frogs need a better performance in singles. It'll be Rybakov v. Vocel; Gray v. Dubinski; Stalder v. Tybar; Kruger v. Scaglia; Fomba v. Hudd; and Jong v. Brady Draheim in a late line-up switch by the Cowboys. We need 4 of these... Early, it's Rybakov 1-1; Gray 1-2; Stalder 2-1; Kruger 1-2; Fomba 1-0; Jong 2-0. Rybo 2-1; Gray 1-3; Stalder 2-all; Kruger 1-2; Fomba 2-love; Jong 3-love. Rybo up a break 3-1; Gray down a break 2-3; Stalder 3-2; Kruger 2-3; Fomba 3-love; Jong 4-love. Rybakovsky 4-1; AG 2-4; Widow 3-all; Krugs 3-all; Luc 3-1; Sander 5-love! Rybo 5-2; Gray falls 2-6; Stalder 5-3; Kruger 3-5; Fomba 4-2; Jong takes his first set 6-1! Rybo 5-3; Gray 0-0 in his 2nd; Stalder takes it 6-3; Kruger falls 3-6; Fomba 5-2; Jong 1-love in his 2nd. Rybakov wins 6-3; Gray 1-all in his 2nd; Stalder 2-love in his 2nd; Kruger 1-love in his 2nd; Fomba 5-3 in his 1st; Jong 3-love in his 2nd. All 2nd sets as Fomba wins 6-3 (TCU takes 4 first sets). Rybo 0-0; Gray 2-1; Stalder 2-love; Kruger 1-all; Fomba 0-0; Jong 4-love. Jong wins 6-1, 6-1 and it's TCU 1 OSU 1!! Rybo 2-1; Gray 3-all; Widow 5-love!; Kruger 4-1; Fomba 2-love. Looking good! Stalder wins 6-3, 6-0 and it's TCU 2 OSU 1!! Rybakov 2-1; Gray 3-4; Kruger 5-1!; Fomba 2-love. Rybakov 3-1; Gray 3-5; Kruger takes his 2nd set 6-1 and is now in his 3rd; Fomba 2-1. Rybo 4-1; Gray 4-5; Kruger 0-1 in his 3rd; Fomba 2-all. Alex 5-1!; Ali breaks back and it's 5-all; Bertus 1-1 in his 3rd; Luc 2-3. Rybo takes his match 6-3, 6-1 and it's TCU 3 Oklahoma State 1!! Gray 6-5; Kruger 1-2 in his 3rd; Fomba 2-3. We just need 1 more! Alastair Gray takes his 2nd set 7-5! Kruger 3-2 in his 3rd; Fomba 3-4 in his 2nd.
I'm thinking that Tiger might take it... And he does! His 15th major; 5th green jacket, 14 years since his last Masters W!
Oklahoma State is 14-9 this season and 8-2 at home. Last night, they gave Texas quite a tussle and only lost 4-3, so they're a very good team despite "only" being ranked 26th and the lowest ranked Big 12 team. They have W's over Omaha, Creighton, Arkansas, Arizona State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, California, Villanova, NC State, Memphis, Oral Roberts, Charlotte, UMKC and Tech and L's to TCU (in the ITA Kickoff), Mississippi, Wake Forest, San Diego, Tulsa, UCF, Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas. They are 1-3 in the Big12 and are fighting to avoid the #6 (and lowest) seed in the Big 12 tourney in Lawrence next week. They are led by #76 Matel Vocel (Czech Republic) and #122 Artur Dubinski (Belarus) and they also have Maxim Tybar (Belarus), Mathieu Scaglia (France), Emile Hudd (London) and Luke Hammond (Birmingham, UK) as singles players. In doubles, Tybar and Scaglia are ranked #29. Their coach is Jay Udwadia, who's been there since 2012 - he's a former Razorback. All-time, TCU leads the historic series 13-10, including 6 straight and 7 out of the last 8 matches. The last 4 matches, the Frogs have swept the Cowboys 4-0. In Stillwater, however, the all-time series is tied at 3-all. We should be favored, but if they can take Texas to 4-3, they can do the same to us. We better be ready in our final match of the regular season. At stake is a possible Top 8 ranking and the 3rd seed in the Big12 tourney. The match is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. tomorrow. In addition to Texas's 4-3 W over Oklahoma State (which clinched at least a share of the Big12 title for the 8th time), Mississippi State trounced A&M in College Station 6-1.
Not much is "obvious" as yet because we're currently in a negotiating period that was mandated by the Justice Department as part of the approval process that is needed for finalization of the announced purchase by Disney of various sports properties of 21st Century Fox, which is itself re-organizing itself into a separate entity to be named Fox Sports (or "new Fox"). Going forward, New Fox will own only the sports properties on Big Fox (the network of over-the-air stations), FS1 and FS2 and they have confirmed in an SEC filing that they have no interest in re-purchasing any of the various assets (including all of the remaining Fox Regionals and other channels) that were part of the announced (and still pending) sale. That is, Disney is buying all remaining Fox sports properties, but in order to get approval to do so, they must also sell much of those properties. There have been various bidders, including Amazon, Charter, Ice Cube's Big3 and MSG (and maybe others). Some of the various Fox assets have a lot of value (because of high subscription fees and existing contracts with pro teams); some don't have much value. We don't know as yet what will be sold and what won't and to whom and we certainly don't know how much the purchase prices will (or won't) be. At this point, nothing is "obvious." TCU's current Tier 3 deal is with Fox and although we don't know for sure how much we get for that because it was never announced, CDC did say at the time that he accepted a little less than $1 million per year in order to get more programming on. That is why I estimated that we're getting about $900,000 from Fox. That will last for a little more than a year or so, and then, in 2020, that will now move to Disney as part of this new Big12 Disney deal. Most, if not all, of those events will then be available on ESPN+. Currently, and until 2020, those TCU events are available in the D-FW area on FSSW (a Fox Regional) and in the rest of the country on the FoxCollege Sports Networks (Atlantic, Central and Pacific) and sometimes on other Fox Regionals. Disney is buying all Fox Regionals and the FCS Networks but will have to disgorge the Fox Regionals. We don't know what will happen with the FCS Networks; my guess is that they will be shut down because no one will buy them. We'll see. Someone will buy FSSW as well as the other Regionals but we don't know who (as yet). For TCU, this new Big 12 deal will essentially become our Tier 3 deal; hence the blurring of Tiers 1-3 for the 8 non-UT/OU Big12 schools. The Big 12, however, allows each school to negotiate separate Tier 3 deals - like UT (with the LHN) and OU (with SoonerSports). Similarly, KU has an independent Tier 3 deal with ESPN for their basketball for which they are (and apparently will continue to be) paid separately. Also, West Virginia has independent arrangements with some local stations that pay them separately. It will still be possible for the other schools to have separate Tier 3 deals, but it isn't likely for many of us because the new Disney Big 12 deal requires us to provide 50+ events and there won't be much more to offer. Also, it isn't "obvious" what TCU will be getting in distribution for this new deal, but I'm guessing it will be a little more that the existing $900,000 because we negotiated as a conference and were therefore able to leverage UT and OU (and their road games will be part of the package) to get a little more for each conference school. What happens to FSSW doesn't really matter to me because I'm not that big of a Mavs or Rangers fan. What happens to the FCS Networks does though - if they are folded, I'll just cancel my extra sports package that gets them for me and order ESPN+ instead.
Whew! The Frogs won, but just barely, 4-3 over Oklahoma on the road today. The Sooners took the doubles point and the early 1-0 lead, and then they took a 2-0 lead when Stalder fell 3-6, 2-6. But the Frogs came roaring back after that with W's from Sander Jong (6-2, 6-2), Alex Rybakov (6-4, 6-2) and Luc Fomba (6-4, 6-4) to take a 3-2 lead. Then, Kruger fell 4-6, 3-6 and it was all up to the Englishman - Alastair Gray - who won his first set 6-3 but lost 6-7 in a breaker in the 2nd. But AG prevailed in the 3rd set 6-4 and clinched the 4-3 W for the Frogs! We're now 18-5, 2-2 in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Virginia beat UNC 4-2. This is good news for us (as explained above) because it now means we are likely to finally make it to #8 in the ITA rankings. But we need to beat Oklahoma State on Sunday to ensure that.
If you're busy calculating "what if" scenarios for our rankings, the key match today (other than TCU at OU) is #9 North Carolina at #5 Virginia. We're "projected" to be #8 if we beat OU, but if UNC beats Virginia, then we're projected to be #9. So, we're clearly for the Cavs to beat the Tarheels today so our chances to crack the Top 8 are better. Their match starts at 2:00 p.m. - ours is later this evening. Of course, if we end up 8th and the Heels are 9th (or vice versa), we could end up playing them (again) in the supers. I'd much rather that be at home than on the road. (Of course, lots could happen in the conference tourneys that would change all that, but this is the type of thing that I'm obsessing about as the regular season winds down).
After reading a little more about this new deal, it looks like it's blurring our Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 product a little because ESPN is in the process of buying the Fox College Sports Networks and some Regionals. Now, we get about $900,000 per year for our Tier 3 stuff with Fox - when this deal takes effect, we'll be getting about $2.2 million from ESPN for most of that with a little left over to do a smallish deal (probably also with ESPN but possibly with someone else) for whatever is left. The difference is that most of this will be paid via the conference rather than individually. The key question is whether ESPN will close down the Fox College Sports Networks so that the product is solely available on ESPN+. if so, we the viewers will have to pay for ESPN+ stuff that we currently get for "free" (if we can get the Fox network on which they are broadcast). But I already pay about $5 per month to get the extra sports package that contains the Fox networks, so now I'll just pay for ESPN+ rather than for them. So it's kind of a wash.
Cam (#55) lost his 5th straight match today, this time 6-3, 6-4 to #372 Joran Tipsarevic in the first round at the clay court tourney in Houston. Yet another terrible result. TCU holds the all-time edge 14-11 over the OU Sooners, including the last 5 in a row, a streak that started in 2016, immediately following a string of 9 straight that OU won over the Frogs. This will be the 7th meeting in Norman, where the Sooners lead the all-time series 4-2. Tomorrow's matches are scheduled for 6:00 p.m.
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Morning-Buzz/2019/04/10/ESPN-Big-12.aspx It means ESPN or ABC will cover the CCG in 2019, 2021 and 2023, there will be a special Big12 part of ESPN+ and that all schools other than Texas and Oklahoma will provide over 50 events per year for ESPN+ coverage (TCU starting in 2020). And it means more money. I think this is part of ESPN buying the Fox College Sports Networks and gradually taking over the Tier 3 deals for 8 Big12 schools. I guess I'm gonna have to buy ESPN+ in 2 years or so because Olympic sports will be available there. More details will (apparently) be announced later today. Here's the Big 12's announcement: www.Big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=211799146.
Very pithy! I couldn't have said it better!

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