Source: https://paulsporer.com/category/trolling-the-wire/
Timestamp: 2019-04-22 10:16:40+00:00

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Early games made it difficult to get any Monday picks in with the holiday, but the rest are updated in the sidebar. Some of the picks are thinning out, but the TTW All-Stars include Felipe Paulino, AJ Burnett, Erik Bedard and of course, Edwin Jackson. Jackson’s becoming less available, but he is still on enough wires to fit into the threshold. I still like Anthony Bass despite a hiccup last week. Meanwhile, JA Happ looks like he might be emerging as a solid option to rely on going forward for those who stream starters. I was surprised to see Trevor Cahill down at 15% at ESPN, but I guess his peripherals have been pretty weak thanks in large part to his elevated walk rate after walking 3 in each of his last three starts.
Last week saw 12 of the 23 recommendations pick up a win. That has to be an all-time high for TTW. The ERA was nice at 3.53, but the WHIP was high at 1.40 thanks in large part to the aforementioned Bass as well as Ross Detwiler and Juan Nicasio getting smoked. Detwiler lost his rotation spot to Chien-Ming Wang. Not sure how I missed RA Dickey‘s second start against San Diego on Sunday. I feel like that wasn’t listed when I checked the list last week because I had him for his May 22nd start in Pittsburgh. Maybe it was an oversight on my part or a schedule change later on. He was amazing in both, but now he’s on too many rosters too qualify. And finally, Mike Minor has a lot to prove before reappearing on a TTW slate.
Max Scherzer – knew that wouldn’t last long and 15 Ks will accelerate the process.
Ervin Santana – another one I knew wouldn’t last and a strong 2-start week sopped up his remaining availability.
Jeff Samardzija – he has really transformed himself this season as he has K’d just fewer than 6 twice in his 8 starts.
Chris Capuano – took his first loss in San Diego last week, but that hasn’t stopped him from being on 100% of ESPN league rosters.
Bud Norris – surprised and bummed about this one as he usually floats under the radar because of the Astros, but impossible to ignore his three win stretch during which he has a 0.47 ERA in 19 innings.
Check the sidebar for this week’s picks.
Just about a week left (season ends Wednesday, September 28th) and while there might not be a lot of undecided races in Major League Baseball, there are still plenty of undecided winners in fantasy leagues everywhere. Just within my own leagues there is one where five teams are split by just 6.0 points and another where three teams split by 6.5 points. And of course any head-to-head league comes right down to the wire.
Last week’s spot starter picks did quite well if I may shed any modesty for a moment as they posted a 2.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 67 innings. Just one of the 10 pitchers gave up more than three runs (Wade Davis, 4) and six gave up one or none so in a week when getting the best out your last remaining starts is especially crucial, these guys came through.
In theory every game counts the same, but in April or even August you have time overcome nightmarish starts, but with nine days left in the season it’s do or die. One implosion can end your chances depending on the league standings.
With precious little time left, I’m focusing only on prime picks. If you’re in Hail Mary mode just about anyone with a pulse will qualify so I don’t think I need to highlight those guys. I’m going for the best and best (or best of the rest as it were since these are guys on many waiver wires).
Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – Holland has been mostly good to us and a start in Oakland is pretty close to a no-brainer with someone of his talent.
Edwin Jackson (STL v. NYM) – He’s been a stalwart for those who stream pitchers because no matter how well he pitched, he couldn’t seem to get any real respect this year.
No one of note – Javier Vazquez finally had his ownership rate move up significantly and it is now 73% so he is no longer available to us spot start players. Some marginal guys I considered that would be upper tier Hail Marys include Brad Peacock, Brandon McCarthy and Wade Miley.
Still no one – Philip Humber and Jeff Niemann are among the few longshot options, but Humber has been very inconsistent since the All-Star break and Niemann has the Yankees.
Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SF) – A favorable matchup against a weak lineup (in a huge game for both teams, of course) and he has walked just three in his last five starts (all in one start against San Diego).
Matt Harrison (TEX v. SEA) – An even better matchup than Collmenter and while his control isn’t as sharp, his propensity for strikeouts is a bit higher.
Aaron Harang (SD v. LAD) – I have covered Harang at home on more than one occasion, he’s money at home.
Joe Saunders (ARI v. SF) – I know what you’re thinking, you thought I wasn’t going with risky plays here down the stretch, but Saunders has been money for a nice stretch and I like him against a weak lineup even if the game means a ton for both teams.
Mike Minor (ATL @ WAS), Edwin Jackson (STL v. CHC), Bud Norris (HOU v. COL), Derek Holland (TEX v. SEA) – All four have been staples on the Trolling so I don’t feel I really need to sell you on them with commentary. If you have been streaming for any period of time, chances are you have used one or more of these guys on multiples occasions.
Monday-Wednesday later this week when the spots become official.
I didn’t love anyone for tonight’s games so this week’s Trolling will focus on Tuesday through Friday. As with Sunday’s picks, I will mention some Hail Mary picks throughout that you can consider if you’re desperately trying to make a move. I’m not counting these in my actual tally because while they are calculated picks that have enough upside to deliver, they are only being mentioned for the most dire of situations.
I will show you the weekly results with and without them just for fun, but note that the official numbers at year’s end will not include the longshot picks from Sunday and the rest of the season.
Mike Minor (ATL v. FLO) – He has gotten some dirty wins and his 3.58 ERA the last month (28 IP) isn’t off-the-charts great, but I love the strikeout potential with 30 in those 28 IP & 8.2 K/9 for the year.
Mike Leake (CIN v. CHC) – He just threw a complete game giving up two runs on three hits against these Cubs and he has a 2.74 ERA and 3.5 K/BB in 23 innings (3 starts) against them this year.
Cory Luebke (SD @ SF) – Up and down lately as the rookie seems to be hitting a bit of a wall (no more than 6 IP in last 6 starts). Alas he remains a strong strikeout asset. Despite three straight losses, he is still a worthy option, especially against the Giants.
Guillermo Moscoso (OAK v. LAA) – Home: 6-2, 2.26 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB; road: 2-6, 4.82, 1.43 and 1.2. Let’s play the numbers here.
Dillon Gee (NYM v. WAS) – He has been too inconsistent lately as he too may be suffering from the proverbial rookie wall, but he has three straight outings with six strikeouts and he is markedly better at home with a 3.18 ERA against 5.59 on the road.
Edwin Jackson (STL @ PIT) – I don’t understand how someone can be as good as he has been this season yet still have ownership rates below 50% at multiple outlets.
Wade Davis (TB @ BAL) – On the heels of a complete game effort with two earned runs against the Red Sox, Davis earns a look against an inferior opponent by comparison.
Derek Holland (TEX v. CLE) – The human rollercoaster. Someone this inconsistent might be best suited for a Hail Mary, but I believe in his immense talent. He laid an egg last time out against the Indians, but I think he gets them back.
Randall Delgado (ATL v. FLO) – Ultra-talented rookie against a lame Marlins team could end well. He has been limited innings-wise in his first couple of starts since the recall, but he has also looked strong.
Bud Norris (HOU v. PHI) – Normally a standard pick, but against Roy Halladay his chances at a win are severely limited while the Phillies offense has become more imposing as the season has developed.
Rich Harden (OAK v. LAA) – He has crazy strikeout potential, but I think everyone has had him on their team at one point or another and knows just how maddening it can be. Tread cautiously.
Anibal Sanchez is still only on 72% of teams at ESPN. I won’t count him as a pick because he isn’t widely available, but check your league just in case. He should be back at 100% the way he has been throwing the last month.
Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. DET) – Hate to go against my Tigers not only because they are my favorite team, but also because they have been rolling lately. However, McCarthy has also been rolling and he could stop the locomotive known as the Tigers, especially at home.
Homer Bailey (CIN v. CHC) – Strong skills, but gopheritis continues to bite Bailey year after year. A career-best 3.2 K/BB is worth buying into and it’s been even better the last month with a 5.8 K/BB powered by his 8.2 K/9 in 38 innings.
Javier Vazquez (FLO @ WAS) – I have been rolling him out weekly and it continues this week, though his ownership rate has finally crept above 60%. Still too low.
Tim Stauffer (SD v. ARI) – Another hometown hero with a 2.76 in PETCO against a 4.95 mark on the road. The skills are significantly better, too, with 6.5 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB marks at home against 5.7 and 1.7 on the road. I thought he could be an any venue kind of guy, but it hasn’t played out that way in 2011.
Felipe Paulino (KC v. CHW) – A microcosm of his inconsistency can be seen in his last two starts: shuts down the Mariners in Seattle and gets crushed by the A’s in Oakland. Strikeout potential is significant.
For many teams, Sunday could mark the end of their 2011 season. Head-to-head leagues are in the playoffs and teams facing elimination will need their team’s best effort to advance on. Hopefully enough categories are close enough to make winning a possibility as opposed to an unthinkable long-shot.
Since there will be different situations across leagues on Sunday, I will break the picks up between all-in picks and standard picks. All-in picks are for those who need a miracle and just need to pile up strikeouts, win chances and hope for the best with the rates. They will want to scoop as many standard picks as they can, but they may also need to dip into the all-in ones depending on availability.
Standard Picks: recommended for anyone employing spot-starting this season.
Javier Vazquez (FLO @ PIT) – He has allowed more than three just once since June 12th, I have no idea how he isn’t on more teams. He is easily the #1 spot start for Sunday especially with a favorable opponent.
Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SD) – I remain stunned at how little love he has gotten this year even as his sample of quality of work expands. He is still too available in my opinion. He has been really sharp since a flameout start to begin August allowing no more than two runs in any of his six subsequent starts. Throw in a very favorable opponent and he is an easy auto-start.
James McDonald (PIT v. FLO) – Obviously recommending opponents against each other limits the amount of wins you could possibly get, but Vazquez also might be on a team in your league whereas McDonald isn’t as likely to be on one. He hasn’t quite been as sharp as Vazquez of late, but he hasn’t given up more than three runs since August 5th.
All-In Picks: recommending only for team managers desperate to make an impact whether in their final day of their H2H battle or in the waning days of their roto league.
Jake Westbrook (STL v. ATL) – The Braves are reeling having lost 7 of 10 while Westbrook was really sharp his last time out including nine strikeouts. It was the first time he struck out more than four since July 15th.
Zach Stewart (CHW v. CLE) – After two shellackings, he went & threw a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts against Minnesota in his last outing. The odd thing is that one of the shellackings was doled out by the Twins. He has shown both his upside & downside. Like the Braves, the Indians are 3-8 in their last 10.
Edinson Volquez (CIN @ COL) – First off he is starting in Coors Field which is enough to make this a Hail Mary pick, but also consider that he is returning from the minors where he was sent for poor performance. However anyone with any knowledge of Volquez knows just how good he can be so it might worth taking the chance that he returns to the majors with a bang.

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