Source: https://www.stopcholera.org/aggregator/sources/1?page=2
Timestamp: 2019-04-19 13:04:57+00:00

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[The mass-spectrometric analysis of MALDI-TOF in identification and typing of strains of comma bacillus].
The data base “Protein profiles of mass-specters of representatives of species of Vibrio cholerae for program MALDI Biotyper” was used to implement typing of strains of comma bacillus isolated at the territory of the Russian Federation in 2010-2012. Also, analysis of degree of similarity and differences among constant ribosomal proteins was implemented. According the results of MALDI-TOF mass-spectrometry strains of V.cholerae were grouped in two distinct clusters. The first cluster included all epidemically dangerous strains isolated from people arrived in Moscow from India 2010-2012. The second cluster included atoxigenic vibrio with no relation to serogroups O1/O139 isolated from residents of Taganrog in 2011. The analysis of main specters of all collection permitted to identify taxon - specific components distinguishing strains of non-O1/non-O139 from strains of V.cholerae El Tor. Hence, the developed data base of proteom portraits of V.cholerae permits identifying, studying and to typing of agents of cholera and other representatives of V.cholerae species detecting their phylogenetic affinity that is ultimately useful for establishing origin of strains isolated from objects of environment and epidemiological decoding of episodes of disease.
Vibrio cholerae genomic diversity within and between patients.
Cholera is a severe, water-borne diarrhoeal disease caused by toxin-producing strains of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Comparative genomics has revealed 'waves' of cholera transmission and evolution, in which clones are successively replaced over decades and centuries. However, the extent of V. cholerae genetic diversity within an epidemic or even within an individual patient is poorly understood. Here, we characterized V. cholerae genomic diversity at a micro-epidemiological level within and between individual patients from Bangladesh and Haiti. To capture within-patient diversity, we isolated multiple (8 to 20) V. cholerae colonies from each of eight patients, sequenced their genomes and identified point mutations and gene gain/loss events. We found limited but detectable diversity at the level of point mutations within hosts (zero to three single nucleotide variants within each patient), and comparatively higher gene content variation within hosts (at least one gain/loss event per patient, and up to 103 events in one patient). Much of the gene content variation appeared to be due to gain and loss of phage and plasmids within the V. cholerae population, with occasional exchanges between V. cholerae and other members of the gut microbiota. We also show that certain intra-host variants have phenotypic consequences. For example, the acquisition of a Bacteroides plasmid and non-synonymous mutations in a sensor histidine kinase gene both reduced biofilm formation, an important trait for environmental survival. Together, our results show that V. cholerae is measurably evolving within patients, with possible implications for disease outcomes and transmission dynamics.
Antibiotic Susceptibility of Non-Cholera Vibrios Isolated from Farmed and Wild Marine Fish (Argyrosomus japonicus), Implications for Public Health.
This study aimed to evaluate the antibiogram and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) of Vibrio isolates recovered from a marine fish (Argyrosomus japonicus) and water samples from two commercial dusky kob aquaculture farms and the Kariega estuary, South Africa, and to evaluate these findings for their public health implications. A total of 277 molecularly confirmed Vibrio isolates consisting of 126 Vibrio fluvialis, 45 Vibrio vulnificus, 30 Vibrio Parahaemolyticus, and 76 vibrios belonging to species of the genus other than Vibrio cholerae were subjected to susceptibility testing to 15 antibiotics by the disc diffusion method. Multiple antibiotic resistance index (MARI) was used to determine the antibiotic resistance-associated health risk, while polymerase chain reaction was used to evaluate the presence of 14 ARGs for nonsusceptible strains. Highest resistances were recorded to amoxicillin (76.2%), ampicillin (67.5%), erythromycin (38.3%), and doxycycline (35.0%), while susceptibilities were highest to gentamicin (100%), followed by norfloxacin (97.8%), florfenicol (90.3%), tetracycline (87.7%), and chloramphenicol (87.4%). We recorded a 58.5% multidrug resistance (resistance to ≥2 antimicrobial classes). MARI did not vary significantly between sites (p > 0.05); however, values of >0.2 were recorded in 40% (108/277) of all strains tested. ARG markers, ampC, blaOXA, tetA, tetM, dfr1, sul1, sul2, ermB, nptII, strA, and SXT integrase, were detected in one or more strains with ermB (82.5%), sul2 (53.8%), strA (44%), dfr1 (42.3%), and tetM (38.3%) being the most abundant. Healthy marine finfish (dusky kob) and their environment can serve as reservoirs for antibiotic resistant vibrios and ARGs, which could be disseminated to humans and other susceptible bacteria and this therefore becomes a public health concern.
Bivalent oral cholera vaccine in participants aged 1 year and older in the Dominican Republic: A phase III, single-arm, safety and immunogenicity trial.
The Dominican Republic, historically non-endemic for cholera, is experiencing an ongoing cholera epidemic. We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of two doses of the killed bivalent (O1 and O139) whole-cell oral cholera vaccine (OCV) on day (D)0 and D14 in healthy participants aged ≥1 year. Immediate unsolicited systemic adverse events (AEs) were monitored up to 30 minutes and solicited systemic reactions, up to 7 days after each vaccination. Unsolicited AEs were recorded up to D14 (post-dose 1) and 30 days post-dose 2. A vibriocidal antibody assay with microtiter technique was used to measure serum antibodies to V. cholerae strains (O1 El Tor Inaba, O1 El Tor Ogawa, O139) on D0, D14 and D28. Geometric mean titers (GMTs) and seroconversion (≥4-fold increase from D0) rates were calculated. We recruited 336 participants; 112 in three age groups (1-4, 5-14 and ≥15 years). No safety concerns were observed. GMTs increased from baseline for all serotypes, with marked increases for O1 Inaba and Ogawa post-dose 1. Post-dose 2 GMTs tended to be equal or slightly lower, with ranges: O1 Inaba, 283 (95% confidence interval 191-419) to 612 (426-880); O1 Ogawa, 346 (223-536) to 754 (553-1028); and O139, 20.3 (13.5-30.6) to 43.8 (30.1-63.7). Seroconversion rates post-dose 2 for O1 Inaba and Ogawa were high (≥87%) for all age groups. OCV demonstrated an acceptable safety profile and robust immunogenicity in these participants, in-line with previous observations in epidemic and endemic settings.This study is registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02434822).
Spatial and population drivers of persistent cholera transmission in rural Bangladesh: Implications for vaccine and intervention targeting.
We identify high risk clusters and measure their persistence in time and analyze spatial and population drivers of small area incidence over time. The geographically linked population and cholera surveillance data in Matlab, Bangladesh for a 10-year period were used. Individual level data were aggregated by local 250 × 250 m communities. A retrospective space-time scan statistic was applied to detect high risk clusters. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify risk factors for cholera. We identified 10 high risk clusters, the largest of which was in the southern part of the study area where a smaller river flows into a large river. There is persistence of local spatial patterns of cholera and the patterns are related to both the population composition and ongoing spatial diffusion from nearby areas over time. This information suggests that targeting interventions to high risk areas would help eliminate locally persistent endemic areas.
A cholera outbreak in a rural north central Nigerian community: an unmatched case-control study.
BACKGROUND: Cholera remains a disease of public health importance in Nigeria associated with high morbidity and mortality. In November 2014, the Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme (NFELTP) was notified of an increase in suspected cholera cases in Gomani, Kwali Local Government Area. NFELTP residents were deployed to investigate the outbreak with the objectives of verifying the diagnosis, identifying risk factors and instituting appropriate control measures to control the outbreak.
METHODS: We conducted an unmatched case-control study. We defined a cholera case as any person aged ≥5 years with acute watery diarrhea in Gomani community. We identified community controls. A total of 43 cases and 68 controls were recruited. Structured questionnaires were administered to both cases and controls. Four stool samples from case-patients and two water samples from the community water source were collected for laboratory investigation. We performed univariate and bivariate analysis using Epi-Info version 7.1.3.10.
RESULTS: The mean age of cases and controls was 20.3 years and 25.4 respectively (p value 0.09). Females constituted 58.1% (cases) and 51.5%(controls). The attack rate was 4.3% with a case fatality rate of 13%. Four stool (100%) specimen tested positive for Vibrio cholerae. The water source and environment were polluted by indiscriminate defecation. Compared to controls, cases were more likely to have drank from Zamani river (OR 14.2, 95% CI: 5.5-36.8) and living in households(HH) with more than 5 persons/HH (OR 5.9, 95% CI: 1.3-27.2). Good hand hygiene was found to be protective (OR 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1-0.7).
CONCLUSION: Vibrio cholerae was the cause of the outbreak in Gomani. Drinking water from Zamani river, living in overcrowded HH and poor hand hygiene were significantly associated with the outbreak. We initiated hand hygiene and water treatment to control the outbreak.
Identification of common virulence factors present in enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli isolated from diarrhoeal patients in Kolkata, India.
AIMS: Development of an effective vaccine against enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is largely dependent on the conscientious understanding of different virulence associated factors from diverse geographical areas. So, the objective of this study is to elucidate the distribution of enterotoxins, CF and NCVF in clinical ETEC strains isolated between 2008 and 2014 from two hospitals in Kolkata, India.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Multiplex PCR method was used for detection of two enterotoxin genes, 11 common CFs and five common NCVFs. Among the 350 tested ETEC strains, 61% strains possessed est+elt genes, 25% est and 14% elt. Among 56% CF positive ETEC strains, CS21 was the prevalent one (37%) followed by CS6 (36%). NCVF genes were present in 59% of the ETEC strains; eatA was the most prevalent (65%) followed by etpA (51%). There were 29% strains negative for any CFs or NCVFs.
CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a pattern exists between CS6, eatA and toxins. We observed est with or without elt, CS6 with or without CS5 and with or without eatA were present in 24% of clinical ETEC strains (59/250) analysed. CS21 has emerged as another predominant CF but it had diverse CFs and NCVFs.
SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Prevalence of ETEC virulence factors would help in tracking ETEC globally and suggests the need of a multivalent ETEC vaccine.
Confirmation of cholera by rapid diagnostic test amongst patients admitted to the cholera treatment centre in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
INTRODUCTION: Cholera is endemic in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1978, and Uvira in South-Kivu has been reporting suspected cholera cases nearly every week for over a decade. The clinical case definition for suspected cholera is relatively non-specific, and cases are rarely confirmed by laboratory methods, especially in endemic settings. This may lead to over-estimation of cholera cases and limit effective public health responses.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Between April 2016 and November 2017, 69% of the 2,059 patients admitted to the Uvira Cholera Treatment Centre (CTC) were tested for cholera with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Of those admitted as suspected cholera cases, only 40% tested positive for cholera, equivalent to an estimated annual incidence of suspected/confirmed cholera in Uvira of 43.8 and 16.3 cases per 10,000 inhabitants respectively. A multivariable logistic regression indicates that boys aged 2 to 4 years, girls aged 5 to 15 years and adult men are respectively 1.9, 2.1 and 1.8 times more likely to test positive than adult women. On the contrary, boys under 2 are 10 times less likely to test positive. The odds of testing positive also increase as weekly admissions to the CTC rise, with up to a 5-fold increase observed during the weeks with the highest numbers of admissions compared to the lowest ones. Other predictors of cholera confirmation include duration of stay at the CTC, clinical outcome of admission, lower weekly rainfall and area of residence in Uvira, with the northern part of town having the highest confirmation rate.
CONCLUSION: Cholera is an on-going public health problem in Uvira but the majority of suspected cases admitted to the CTC were found to be negative for cholera after RDT testing. These findings may have important implications for cholera control strategies in favour of interventions that address cholera and other diarrhoeal diseases alike.
Molecular characterization of NDM-1-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae ST29, ST347, ST1224, and ST2558 causing sepsis in neonates in a tertiary care hospital of North-East India.
Geographical differences can manifest in different spectra of microorganisms and patterns of antibiotic resistance. Considering this, Enterobacteriacae isolated from septicemic neonates from a tertiary care centre in Agartala, India were studied with focus on carbapenem resistance. Two hundred non-duplicate Enterobacteriaceae, of which 12 NDM-1-producing K. pneumoniae were recovered. Antibiotic susceptibility tests and detection of ESBLs and carbapenemases were performed for all Enterobacteriaceae. For NDM-1-producing isolates, plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance genes, addiction systems, genetic environment of blaNDM-1 and virulence genes was investigated by PCR. Bacterial clonal relatedness was established using REP-PCR, PFGE, and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). Transferability of blaNDM-1 was tested by conjugation and transconjugants were characterized. K. pneumoniae was the primary organism causing sepsis in neonates. Antibiotic resistance to different antimicrobials was high except for aminoglycosides and carbapenems. The blaCTX-M was prevalent in all isolates. All carbapenem-resistant isolates harboured blaNDM-1 as the only carbapenemase. blaCTX-M-15 and qnrS1 were detected in all. Plasmid analysis of transconjugants revealed that blaNDM-1 along with blaCTX-M-15, qnrS1, qnrB1, aac(6')-Ib, aac(6')-Ib-cr and ccdAB or vagCD addiction systems were carried on large IncFIIK conjugative plasmids of varied sizes. blaNDM-1 was associated with ISAba125 or ISEc33 element at its 5'-end. In addition, all isolates also harboured wabG, uge, fimH, mrkD, and entB virulence genes. The NDM-1-producing K. pneumoniae isolates belonged to four distinct clones and were distributed in 4 STs (ST347, ST29, ST2558, and ST1224), of which ST347 was predominant. The association of blaNDM-1 with diverse STs in K. pneumoniae from neonates indicates the promiscuity of the gene and its widespread dissemination.
The review contains some brief information on cholera epidemics in Africa. Based on the results of the whole genome sequencing of 30 clinical strains isolated in Africa in different periods of the 7th cholera pandemic (1985-2012), extensive genetic diversity has been revealed. It is demonstrated that at present cholera epidemics in Africa are caused by new variants of the agent, which emerged in South- Eastern Asia in consequence of not only new genes acquisition, but also genome alterations of pandemicity and pathogenicity islands. SNP analysis of 53 strains circulating at different times in the territory of the continent, as well as isolated in South-Eastern Asia, has been carried out. Phylogenetic relations between the majority of the African and Asian strains have been established. In addition, strains were shown to exist that are, apparently, endemic to the African region. Identified genetic diversity of the strains with varying virulence and drug resistance points out the necessity of continuous molecular monitoring of the cholera agent in Africa.
The cholera outbreak in Yemen: lessons learned and way forward.
The Yemen cholera outbreak has been driven by years of conflict and has now become the largest in epidemiologically recorded history with more than 1.2 million cases since the beginning of the outbreak in April, 2017. In this report we review and discuss the cholera management strategies applied by the major international humanitarian health organizations present in Yemen. We find the response by the organizations examined to have been more focused on case management than on outbreak prevention. Oral Cholera Vaccines (OCVs) were not delivered until nearly 16 months into the outbreak. A recent scale-up of the global OCV stockpile will hopefully allow for rapid mass deployment of the OCV in future humanitarian emergencies. Continuous funding to this stockpile will be crucial to maintain this option for prevention and control of cholera outbreaks. Of equal importance will be the timely recognition of the need for mass OCV deployment and development of more specific, comprehensive and actionable evidence-based frameworks to help guide this decision, however difficult this may be. The outbreak highlights the importance for international humanitarian health organizations to have a continuous discussion about whether and to what extent they should increase their focus on pre-emptively addressing the environmental determinants of communicable diseases in humanitarian emergencies. Strong advocacy from the public health community for peace and the protection of human health, by bringing to attention the public health impacts of armed conflict and keeping the world's political leaders accountable to their actions, will remain crucial.
In silico prediction of drug resistance due to S247R mutation of Influenza H1N1 neuraminidase protein.
We present here in silico studies on antiviral drug resistance due to a novel mutation of influenza A/H1N1 neuraminidase (NA) protein. Influenza A/H1N1 virus was responsible for a recent pandemic and is currently circulating among the seasonal influenza strains. M2 and NA are the two major viral proteins related to pathogenesis in humans and have been targeted for drug designing. Among them, NA is preferred because the ligand-binding site of NA is highly conserved between different strains of influenza virus. Different mutations of the NA active site residues leading to drug resistance or susceptibility of the virus were studied earlier. We report here a novel mutation (S247R) in the NA protein that was sequenced earlier from the nasopharyngeal swab from Sri Lanka and Thailand in the year 2009 and 2011, respectively. Another mutation (S247N) was already known to confer resistance to oseltamivir. We did a comparative study of these two mutations vis-a-vis the drug-sensitive wild type NA to understand the mechanism of drug resistance of S247N and to predict the probability of the novel S247R mutation to become resistant to the currently available drugs, oseltamivir and zanamivir. We performed molecular docking- and molecular dynamics-based analysis of both the mutant proteins and showed that mutation of S247R affects drug binding to the protein by positional displacement due to altered active site cavity architecture, which in turn reduces the affinity of the drug molecules to the NA active site. Our analysis shows that S247R may have high probability of being resistant.
Disease and Famine as Weapons of War in Yemen.
Bacterial contamination and health risks of drinking water from the municipal non-government managed water treatment plants.
Water quality and bacterial contamination from 18 drinking water municipal plants in three locations at Giza governorate were investigated. The average total count of bacteria detected after four stages of treatments in the investigated plants was 32 CFU/1 mL compared to 2330 cfu/mL for raw water, with a reduction percentage of 98.6. Although there is a relatively high removal percent of bacterial contamination from the water sources, however, several bacterial pathogens were identified in the produced water prepared for drinking including Enterococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Shigella spp. After 3 days of water incubation at 30 °C, the amount of bacterial endotoxins ranged from 77 to 137 ng/mL in the water produced from the municipal plants compared to 621-1260 ng/mL for untreated water. The main diseases reported from patients attending different clinics and hospitals during summer 2014 at the surveyed locations and assuredly due to drinking water from these plants indicated that diarrheas and gastroenteritis due to E. coli and Campylobacter jejuni constituted 65.7% of the total patients followed by bacillary dysentery or shigellosis due to Shigella spp. (7.9%) and cholera due to Vibrio cholera (7.2%). There was an increase in serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) as well as urea and creatinine values of guinea pigs consuming water produced from the non-governmental plants for 6 months indicating remarkable liver and kidney damages. Histological sections of liver and kidney from the tested animal revealed liver having ballooning degeneration of hepatocytes and distortion and fragmentation of the nuclei, while the section of the kidney showed irregularly distributed wrinkled cells, degenerated Bowman's capsule, congested blood vessels, and inflammatory cells.
The potential impact of case-area targeted interventions in response to cholera outbreaks: A modeling study.
BACKGROUND: Cholera prevention and control interventions targeted to neighbors of cholera cases (case-area targeted interventions [CATIs]), including improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccine (OCV), and prophylactic antibiotics, may be able to efficiently avert cholera cases and deaths while saving scarce resources during epidemics. Efforts to quickly target interventions to neighbors of cases have been made in recent outbreaks, but little empirical evidence related to the effectiveness, efficiency, or ideal design of this approach exists. Here, we aim to provide practical guidance on how CATIs might be used by exploring key determinants of intervention impact, including the mix of interventions, "ring" size, and timing, in simulated cholera epidemics fit to data from an urban cholera epidemic in Africa.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a micro-simulation model and calibrated it to both the epidemic curve and the small-scale spatiotemporal clustering pattern of case households from a large 2011 cholera outbreak in N'Djamena, Chad (4,352 reported cases over 232 days), and explored the potential impact of CATIs in simulated epidemics. CATIs were implemented with realistic logistical delays after cases presented for care using different combinations of prophylactic antibiotics, OCV, and/or point-of-use water treatment (POUWT) starting at different points during the epidemics and targeting rings of various radii around incident case households. Our findings suggest that CATIs shorten the duration of epidemics and are more resource-efficient than mass campaigns. OCV was predicted to be the most effective single intervention, followed by POUWT and antibiotics. CATIs with OCV started early in an epidemic focusing on a 100-m radius around case households were estimated to shorten epidemics by 68% (IQR 62% to 72%), with an 81% (IQR 69% to 87%) reduction in cases compared to uncontrolled epidemics. These same targeted interventions with OCV led to a 44-fold (IQR 27 to 78) reduction in the number of people needed to target to avert a single case of cholera, compared to mass campaigns in high-cholera-risk neighborhoods. The optimal radius to target around incident case households differed by intervention type, with antibiotics having an optimal radius of 30 m to 45 m compared to 70 m to 100 m for OCV and POUWT. Adding POUWT or antibiotics to OCV provided only marginal impact and efficiency improvements. Starting CATIs early in an epidemic with OCV and POUWT targeting those within 100 m of an incident case household reduced epidemic durations by 70% (IQR 65% to 75%) and the number of cases by 82% (IQR 71% to 88%) compared to uncontrolled epidemics. CATIs used late in epidemics, even after the peak, were estimated to avert relatively few cases but substantially reduced the number of epidemic days (e.g., by 28% [IQR 15% to 45%] for OCV in a 100-m radius). While this study is based on a rigorous, data-driven approach, the relatively high uncertainty about the ways in which POUWT and antibiotic interventions reduce cholera risk, as well as the heterogeneity in outbreak dynamics from place to place, limits the precision and generalizability of our quantitative estimates.
CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that CATIs using OCV, antibiotics, and water treatment interventions at an appropriate radius around cases could be an effective and efficient way to fight cholera epidemics. They can provide a complementary and efficient approach to mass intervention campaigns and may prove particularly useful during the initial phase of an outbreak, when there are few cases and few available resources, or in order to shorten the often protracted tails of cholera epidemics.
Preventing cholera outbreaks through early targeted interventions.
In a Perspective, Lorenz von Seidlein and Jacqueline L. Deen discuss the implications of Andrew Azman and colleagues' accompanying study for management of cholera outbreaks.
Evaluation of integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) core and support functions after the revitalisation of IDSR in Uganda from 2012 to 2016.
BACKGROUND: Uganda is a low income country that continues to experience disease outbreaks caused by emerging and re-emerging diseases such as cholera, meningococcal meningitis, typhoid and viral haemorrhagic fevers. The Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy was adopted by WHO-AFRO in 1998 as a comprehensive strategy to improve disease surveillance and response in WHO Member States in Africa and was adopted in Uganda in 2000. To address persistent inconsistencies and inadequacies in the core and support functions of IDSR, Uganda initiated an IDSR revitalisation programme in 2012. The objective of this evaluation was to assess IDSR core and support functions after implementation of the revitalised IDSR programme.
METHODS: The evaluation was a cross-sectional survey that employed mixed quantitative and qualitative methods. We assessed IDSR performance indicators, knowledge acquisition, knowledge retention and level of confidence in performing IDSR tasks among health workers who underwent IDSR training. Qualitative data was collected to guide the interpretation of quantitative findings and to establish a range of views related to IDSR implementation.
RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2016, there was an improvement in completeness of monthly reporting (69 to 100%) and weekly reporting (56 to 78%) and an improvement in timeliness of monthly reporting (59 to 93%) and weekly reporting (40 to 68%) at the national level. The annualised non-polio AFP rate increased from 2.8 in 2012 to 3.7 cases per 100,000 population < 15 years in 2016. The case fatality rate for cholera decreased from 3.2% in 2012 to 2.1% in 2016. All districts received IDSR feedback from the national level. Key IDSR programme challenges included inadequate numbers of trained staff, inadequate funding, irregular supervision and high turnover of trained staff. Recommendations to improve IDSR performance included: improving funding, incorporating IDSR training into pre-service curricula for health workers and strengthening support supervision.
CONCLUSION: The revitalised IDSR programme in Uganda was associated with improvements in performance. However in 2016, the programme still faced significant challenges and some performance indicators were still below the target. It is important that the documented gains are consolidated and challenges are continuously identified and addressed as they emerge.
Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.
BACKGROUND: Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed.
METHODS: We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior).
RESULTS: We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of several macro metrics of interest: an epidemic curve, a risk perception curve, and a distribution of different types of coping strategies over time.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral aspects of decision making under risk into spatial disease ABMs using machine learning algorithms. This is especially relevant when studying cumulative impacts of behavioral changes and possible intervention strategies.
The influence of climate change on waterborne disease and Legionella: a review.
Climate change is predicted to have a major impact on people's lives with the recent extreme weather events and varying abnormal temperature profiles across the world raising concerns. The impacts of global warming are already being observed, from rising sea levels and melting snow and ice to changing weather patterns. Scientists state unequivocally that these trends cannot be explained by natural variability in climate alone. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, have warmed the earth by dramatically increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere; as these concentrations increase, the more the earth will warm. Climate change and related extreme weather events are being exacerbated sooner than has previously been considered and are already adversely affecting ecosystems and human health by increasing the burden and type of disease at a local level. Changes to the marine environment and freshwater supplies already affect significant parts of the world's population and warmer temperatures, especially in more temperate regions, may see an increased spread and transmission of diseases usually associated with warmer climes including, for example, cholera and malaria; these impacts are likely to become more severe in a greater number of countries. This review discusses the impacts of climate change including changes in infectious disease transmission, patterns of waterborne diseases and the likely consequences of climate change due to warmer water, drought, higher rainfall, rising sea levels and flooding.
Environmental surveillance for Vibrio cholerae in selected households' water storage systems in Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA) prior to the 2014 cholera outbreak in Accra, Ghana.
Cholera is a global public health problem with high endemicity in many developing countries in Africa. In 2014, Ghana experienced its largest epidemic with more than 20,000 cases and 200 deaths; most of it occurred in the Accra Metropolitan Area (AMA). Ghana's disease surveillance system is mainly clinically based and focused on case detection and management. Environmental exploration for the etiological agents is missing from the surveillance strategy. This study therefore assessed the occurrence of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in water storage systems in selected high risk areas in the AMA area prior to the 2014 outbreak. Three hundred twenty water samples from 80 households' water storage systems were analyzed for toxigenic Vibrio cholerae using the bacterial culture method. Presumptive V. cholerae was isolated from 83.8% of households' water storage systems. The viable cells ranged from 1 to 1400 CFU/100 ml. Vibrio cholerae O1 serotype was isolated from five households in Old Fadama, one household in Shiabu, and one household in Bukom in the month of May and a similar trend was observed for the months of June and July. The presence of Vibro cholerae in the water storage vessels used for drinking confirms the need to consider environmental surveillance for toxigenic Vibro cholerae particularly in high-risk areas to strengthen the existing surveillance system.

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