Source: https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/providing_the_balance_of_technological_and_social_changes_in_real-time_regime_plus_the_economic_grow2/
Timestamp: 2019-04-21 06:08:30+00:00

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There is a long list of reasons and factors being seen as responsible for declining economic growth, no matter which country or region is analysed (see, e.g., Korotayev and Tsirel 2010; Grinin and Korotayev 2010a, 2010b, 2011, 2014a, 2014b, 2014c, 2015; Korotayev, Zinkina, and Bogevolnov 2011; Grinin, Korotayev, and Malkov 2010; Grinin, Tsirel, and Korotayev 2015). But are these listed or yet-to-be-found reasons and factors the root causes that really hold back the economies of most countries in the world? Or are they consequences of some deep-lying processes, reflecting the effects of objective patterns of development that are still concealed from researchers – despite the fact that famous economists wrote about the increasing uncertainty in economy and politics? (Friedman 1956; Krugman 1979; Bernanke 1984). Nowadays, many people see the number one reason in the ineffective modelling of further economic growth as there are no visible ways to reverse this trend, and no solutions have come up for any of the problems. Ben Bernanke, the former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), stated that a victorious war or vigorous preparation for such a war could be the best ways to lead the American economy out of the growing crisis (Polunin 2015). The Russian academic literature features debates on the need for a shift to a different model of economic growth in Russia (Kudrin and Gurvich 2014).
More than thirty years ago, in an attempt to throw some light on the inconsistencies of the Soviet Union's economy, we concluded that the then existing economic theories and scientific knowledge in general had run out of their explanatory capabilities in the search of ways to overcome negative developments. The main reason behind it is that so far scientific knowledge, including economic knowledge, has been gained through acquisition and processing of empirical evidence of the past and subjective judgement based on data interpretation. Thus, if we take a look at references to present-day textbooks, for example, macroeconomics course books, then we will find that they are totally based on the content that dates back to the second or third quarters of last century (e.g., Romer 2015). The author of another book on the theory of economic growth writes, ‘In the theory of growth, just as in macroeconomics and mainstream economic theory, research is closely linked to, conclusions verified and confirmed through empirical developments, or it is questioned, disproved and often initiated by empirical studies’. In other words, all these reflections are very much based in a constant forward projection of given data, interpreted not only with unchanged means but also without changing the methodology.
The identification of a single criteria to assess the development of humankind, i. e. the time between the need to achieve the common goal of the development and the reality where the human society finds itself at every moment, in any form of presentation, and each particular person in relation to this goal. Within this perspective, if the time between arising of a particular person's need and the fulfilment of this need tends to shrink, the humankind demonstrates correct and effective progression toward the goal.
To achieve this goal, the authors offered several scenarios of the ‘global solidarity revolution’. They hope that scientists, religious leaders and business representatives of one country could have influence on their peers from other countries, and then they, all together, could address critical issues and work out general solutions. Unfortunately, first, these calls for coordinated efforts could hardly be heard while the existing model of humankind development is at work. Second, in view of the systemic approach to the development of human society, as a result of simultaneous setting of multiple goals, none of them might fail in achievement, and such pattern is well known from history.
And, finally, using the only possible index to measure and compare all processes and phenomena – that is the time, and the only criteria for efficiency of the human-system development – that is on the one hand, the time between the need to attain the single development goal, and on the other hand – the reality, in which, at any given moment, the society and each human individual find themselves in relation to such goal, would provide us with the entirely new understanding of the human-system development.
Today, the humanity is distributed over the time-lines between the origin of the need for implementation of the goal and satisfaction of such need in various points and within various time domains. The greater the distance between human communities, regions, countries and systems on this vector of time, the harder, if not impossible, is to establish a dialogue between them and to ensure peace. When civilizations, peoples, nations, large and small communities and individuals find themselves in different linear and spherical time domains, they have different levels of consciousness, which prevents them from ever aligning their interests and understanding. This underlies the origin and aggravation of all woes of humankind. And this makes communities migrating around the globe in search of a better life. This implies that the crisis in global development, wars, terrorism, riots, man-made and natural disasters and all other negative developments stem from deep-lying laws that are common for both nature and humankind. Moreover, as long as people live in different linear and spherical time domains, there will be a semblance that the planet is inhabited by numerous co-existing local civilizations different from one another (Bondarenko 2014a). This is why it is extremely important to set a new direction to the development of humankind so that all people on Earth are equally ‘in-between’. In this case, the level of consciousness of each individual will be brought in harmony with other people's levels of consciousness, and they will be able to coordinate their interests in identifying a model for their existence. Hence we will comprehend and realize faster that we all live towards the objective goal of attaining perfection. In all other cases, as we set out in previous articles and would like to emphasize again, development may result in a totally different, opposite scenario: dead end, rever-se development to start anew, or a catastrophic finale, of ‘apocalypse’.
– Paradigm 1 implies a direct relationship between production and consumption, which is short in terms of time and space. It originated when everything was produced with manual labour that was in the possession of the humankind, and all produce was consumed soon afterwards. This is the pre-industrial type of production for one's own needs and on a made-to-order basis for a particular consumer at the level of a household (craftsmen). Therefore, the time between arising of a particular person's need and the satisfaction thereof was the shortest. But since the goal was not recognized, the manufacturing capabilities were limited, and the range of needs was narrow, undeveloped and inaccessible for most of the population, then the development was challenged by some troublesome times, food riots, epidemics, uprisings and wars, a great number of deaths, demographic and environmental disasters, urban destruction and decay, downturn in trade and crafts, etc. (see, e.g., Turchin 2003; Turchin and Korotayev 2006, 2014; Turchin and Nefedov 2009; Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006; Korotayev et al. 2011; Korotayev, Malkov, and Grinin 2014). The human society development towards the goal was spontaneous, either approaching it or moving away from it.
– Paradigm 2 implies that the relationship between production and consumption is mediated. This development paradigm originated at the outset of technological developments, division of labour, emerging markets, diffusion of middlemen and the universal equivalent for exchange of deliverables, i.e. money. Progressive geographical expansion and development of foreign trade brought about the transformation of the first direct development paradigm into the second mediated one. Its development was accelerated by the transition to industrial technologies. The flow of production was formed. Domestic and foreign trade was evolving, too, featuring geographical expansion to a global scale. Production and trade were focused on mass markets to achieve the only goal, namely generating as much profit as possible. Demand from the abstract end-consumer is met through a spontaneous, archaic, market-based form of communication, mediated by the extension of time and space. The needs of individuals are not considered. Under these conditions, uncertainty of consumption resulted in the emergence of an increasingly growing disproportion between the time of production and the time of circulation of goods and money and, finally, caused them to grow utterly desynchronized. The time of circulation exceeds manifold the time of production. A huge gap appeared between the dynamics of physical and monetary factors of production. The development towards the goal is spontaneous with evolution followed by involution, and vice versa (see, e.g., Grinin, Korotayev, and Malkov 2010). Therefore, cycles and crises, chaos and complexity, and all other negative events in the human society development, being the result of this development paradigm, repeat themselves, but on a greater scale and with greater probability of a catastrophe in the final stage. Moreover, the increase in the time of circulation of goods and money compared to the time of their production is the underlying reason for inefficient use of all, including human, resources, or for non-recoverable losses.
Combating the financial crisis with the tools of monetary policy only aggravates this gap in the movement of the real product and money, and makes for a greater disproportion between the time of production and the time of circulation of goods and money. This is exactly why Raghuram Rajan, President of the Reserve Bank of India, believes that the monetary policy of the advanced countries creates an environment similar to the one that triggered the Great Depression 80 years ago. Raghuram Rajan presented this outlook at the International Conference on Economics held by the London Business School in late June 2015. Rajan's words become even weightier, considering his predictions for the 2007–2008 crisis back in 2005 and his record of service. For example, before taking over leadership of India's central bank, he worked as a chief economist with the IMF and is a recognized authority in the world of economics. ‘I am concerned that in order to accelerate economic development we are slowly drifting into the same problems that existed in the 1930s’, Raghuram Rajan said while speaking from the platform during the conference in London. ‘I think this is a universal problem. This is not just a problem of advanced or emerging markets. It is all much broader and more complex’ (Manukov 2015).
When speaking about the problems driving the world to a new Great Depression, Rajan refers to the efforts made by the central banks of many developed countries to spur sluggish economies after a financial crisis through ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing (QE). The US, Japanese and European banks have resorted to these measures in recent years. Raghuram Rajan fears that quantitative easing programs may cause the developing countries to retaliate to maintain their share in the markets, as it was the case in the 1930s. He says, ‘[t]he problem is that while trying to achieve growth through QE out of nothing, we do not create this growth but take it away from one another’ (Manukov 2015). All the more so as the US FRS ‘created’ several trillions of dollars for the three QE waves. They have not demonstrated any spill-over effects yet since the velocity of money is still lagging behind the pre-crises levels (Manukov 2015). Thus, the fears expressed by Raghuram Rajan that the world may be slipping into a new Great Depression are reasonable.
Any attempts and real efforts that have been recently made to reshape the existing model of development, for example through renunciation of the Bretton Woods System and the dollar as the only world currency, will only lead to greater disproportions. Thus, in its efforts to create an equivalent of western international financial structures, today China has taken part in the establishment of a BRICS international bank, a currency pool, and a bank for Asian infrastructure development, and emerges as one of the world's leaders in terms of its influence in Asia and other parts of the world (see, e.g., Grinin, Tsirel, and Korotayev 2015). China is already using its holdings of gold and foreign exchange to assist the weak and struggling nations, to which China is going to extend loans. For instance, China provides support to Venezuela and Argentina, and makes similar promises to Russia – meaning that China is strengthening its position as a lender of last resort for many countries, thus reshaping dramatically the global economy. Even though the Western supremacy in the world economy may or may not be terminated, under these conditions there is no guarantee that the Chinese supremacy will not occur. If the Yuan, which accounts for over 80 % of all trading operations and more than 90 % of all international transactions worth hundreds trillion dollars, becomes the world reserve currency, there is no guarantee that China, like the USA, will not begin printing national money without any limits. Once it ceases to be the world's factory supplying its goods to all destinations on the planet, China may replace them with the only commodity, i.e. money, and make for another Bretton Woods System or a greater gap between real products and money. The disproportions will increase whose consequences are rather obvious.
The same negative consequences will result from evolvement of the existing development model, for example consolidation of BRICS, the Eurasian Union or any other union, since the new environment with a common global market based on the consolidated space offering free movement of goods, services, capital and labour, will not allow to become new powerful centers of economic development. Why? Because it maintains and enhances the lack of balance between the time of circulation of goods and money and the time of their production. And secondly, because today all countries have different ‘in-between’ time positions, i.e. at different levels of development compared to the objective development goal, and they will never be able to get their interests coordinated.
Thus, we can see that the existing paradigm of human development represents mediated relationships between people that are not consistent with the present era of hypervelocities, digital, info-, cogno-, nano- and other technologies of the 21st century, and the employment of these technologies is not yet intended for implementation of the objective goal of the human society development.
But are the above-cited suggestions really correct? As for the Chinese experience, we should note as follows: yes, indeed, we witnessed a Chinese economic miracle called a socialist market economy. As some researchers of China suppose, this economy incorporates the systemic approach and determines the way a modern economy can and must develop. But our studies based on the worldview approach have shown (we mentioned it in our previous section) that the Chinese economy is not quite effective. Let us refer to facts. For example, in 2009–2013, USD 6.8 trillion of investment was wasted because of the Chinese government's endeavours to stimulate economic growth and hyperactivity of the construction industry. This is what research conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Academy of Macroeconomic Research showed. During this period, nearly half of all investments in the Chinese economy were ‘ineffective’, as pointed out by the authors. Evidence of this can be found, for example, in ghost cities with empty high-rise buildings (Fig. 3), unused motorways and abandoned steelworks (Nevelsky 2014; Grinin, Tsirel, and Korotayev 2015). Similar examples of inefficient use of all resources, including human resources, can be found in every country of the world, including Russia.
Let us return to China. While demonstrating a very high level of income inequality and inevitable reorientation from foreign trade to the domestic market, the growth rates of the Chinese economy are going down dramatically. ‘Persistent slowdown of the Chinese economy within the next years may lower global economic growth below the level of 2 %, which is interpreted as a recession, Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, one of the world's largest investment banks explains: “The next global recession will be made in China,” he predicted in his interview to Bloomberg. According to Sharma, “over the next couple of years, China is likely to be the biggest source of vulnerability for the global economy”’ (Los 2015). This is confirmed by many other facts as well. For example, ‘Chinese corporate debt is estimated at USD 16.1 trillion, or 160 % of GDP, which is twice as much compared to the USA. Experts see the reason for such a big debt in Beijing's endeavours to stabilize economic growth. Wang Tao, Chief China Economist at UBS (Switzerland), whom the agency quotes, believes that the current situation may lead to “a crash landing” of the Chinese economy. He emphasizes that over the past few years Chinese officials have been trying to stimulate capital inflows into the real economy. But now corporate incomes slow down as the prices decrease, which makes debt repayment even harder’ (IA lenta.ru 2015). Let us give another example. On July 27, 2015, for the second time in the past month, the Chinese stock market tumbled by 8.5 %. This marked the record-breaking fall of the Chinese indices in the past eight years… (Ibid.) These facts fully confirm our implications for the lack of effectiveness of the Chinese model (Grinin, Tsirel, and Korotayev 2015).
Therefore, we can conclude that the existing model of development represents mediated relations between people, which, on the one hand, are not consistent with the present era of hypervelocities, digital, info-, cogno-, nano- and other technologies as we have said before, and, on the other hand, it is rather ineffective and tends to exhaust all types of resources. All this multiplies as long as the development towards the objective goal occurs by trial and error, unconsciously, or as the model is denied. Or it occurs in a conscious way, but to the benefit of a limited number of people and their individual goals. This is why transition to another path of development is of the highest priority. But this path must make for development towards the objective goal in a conscious way, through evolutionary, irreversible and continuous minimization of the ‘in-between’ time, and full achievement of the goal.
Another example. Today, in the light of the ongoing crisis and deterioration of purchasing power, the existing retail sector, as one of the key elements of the mediated development paradigm, is looking out for new ways to expand its impact and influence consumers. Previously, NLP technologies were used to influence the customer, thus boosting sales and generating profit. Nowadays digital technologies have replaced them. They do not only include interactive di- gital assistants used for promotional purposes, but also 3D printers in e-com-merce to print goods in a specially equipped delivery truck while on the way to customers (Fig. 5), promotion of cyber and wearable technologies, and technologies offering to carry your physical presence over into the virtual world using mirror touch screens.
According to recent research conducted by ResponseTap, 73 % of respondents representing the business community stated the information on individual purchasing experiences was of great importance. These days dominance is potentially assigned not to the Internet that offers human-to-human interaction, but the Internet of Things. The inventors of these systems believe that pretty soon big customer data are likely to transform to super data. Using them, the IoT technologies will be able to collect and interpret information, and send findings directly to marketing specialists. As we can see, all this predetermines artificial intelligence surpassing that of humans.
Therefore, if we take a look at the retail sector, we can see that we are here also moving towards our own ‘singularity’. We refer to the point where the time between the origin of the need for some product and availability of this product for purchasing tends to zero, where the digital and physical retail worlds converge, and the borders disappear completely; when traditional stores become as ‘smart’ as their Internet peers (or even ‘smarter’); when purchasing data and history are instantly registered and stored by the system; and the level of Artificial Intelligence impresses customers all over, regardless where they decide to pick and buy products. Soon there will be no borders between offline and online trading, as the ‘retail singularity’ or, rather, technological singularity in commerce would sweep off all such borders on the way (Rees 2015). Is not what the American scientist Vernor Vinge wrote about in 1993 in his article ‘The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era’, a topic also looked at by other scientists (Vinge 1993; Hanson 1998), including Russian researchers (Novoselov 2001). According to Vinge, ‘singularity’ is to occur as soon as ‘in thirty years (i.e. in 2023), when technologies allow for superhuman intelligence creation. Shortly afterwards, the age of human supremacy will inevitably come to an end’. Whatever the case, according to Vinge (and, by the way, Stephen Hawking and other prominent scientists, as well), we still have a long way to go to Apocalypse. But is it really only about moving to apocalypse? Whether Vinge and Stephen Hawking are right or not, we will uncover below.
A similar situation that shows that the world stands on the brink of technological singularity is observed when ‘smart’ cities of the future are created. The first smart city appeared in South Korea. This largest project for construction of a ‘smart’ city is called Songdo. It is located on a man-made island. This grand project is being implemented by Cisco, 3M, Posco E&C and United Technology (IA Mico. Technology 2014).
Using the example of Songdo, experts began to discuss another problem of a smart city, apart from continuous monitoring of every person, when the Control Centre provides images of people at every corner of the city, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is the risk of so-called digital inequality. It turns out that complete integration into the urban environment is only available for a per-son who owns an advanced gadget with all applications installed. Citizens who do not have up-to-date smartphones for whatever reason become deprived of most of their rights and find themselves disconnected from the vast majority of crucial processes. For example, in a smart city they will not be able to choose to make a payment either online or in the same old way through a bank office. They will not be able to buy a train ticket at a booking office or take advantage of any other opportunities.
Besides, Russia currently demonstrates a discernible trend towards the ideas of a digital revolution. We can imagine how dangerous these digital technologies, nano-, bio- and cognitive technologies, virtual reality, development of the Internet of Things, creation of smart cities, and other artificial intelligence technologies are. Digital inequality will become more severe, and other adverse effects will show up, if these technologies are widely used not just within the existing paradigm of development, but also the new one, and if the humankind does not recognize the objective development goal.
The most important thing that we have derived from the worldview approach is that it helps to define the fundamental concept of the new model of living arrangement and to substantiate the need for and possibility of the development and implementation of the MEGAPROJECT titled ‘The Territory of Advanced Development: For the Good of the People’. The core idea of the Megaproject in solving the strategic goals is to build up a new basis at each local level in any country of the world simultaneously, i.e. new direct human relations adequate to the technologies of the 21st century, and a mechanism for their implementation through real-time coordination of the interests of the government, community and business with the interests of an individual. This is the shortest practicable way to the desired future. Why? Because while every individual represents being a customer and a consumer of all the goods, at the same time rep-resents the government, business or civil society, and as the time between the arising of the need for achievement of the goal and the fulfilment of this need decreases, the interests will increasingly match.
Globally: an international interdisciplinary team of scientists and practitioners could be created to develop the Megaproject with the involvement of the global intellectual community in the development of the proposed model where people are united by a network, possibly under the auspices of the UN. Given that in September 2015 in New York the international community has approved a new set of goals for sustainable development for the next 15 years and the Sustainable Development Agenda (UN 2015), it is crucial for all humankind that from the very beginning this set of goals should be considered as part of the objective development goal, now that the global demographic development and scarcity of natural resources are increasingly problematic (Ibid.).
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