Source: http://www.morganwick.com/2017/11/
Timestamp: 2019-04-18 21:17:49+00:00

Document:
Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5; with NBC hosting a game the Saturday before Christmas Eve, I’m assuming protections were due in Week 4 again this year, and the above notwithstanding, Week 10 is part of the main flex period this year, as it was in 2006, 2011, and last year. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
New this year, the flexed-out game always moves to the network from which the flexed-in game comes, regardless of which network it would air on normally. This should give the NFL some incentive to flex in games from the same network as the tentative, especially late in the year, to avoid having to deal with the rather restrictive crossflex rules more than necessary. It also affects CBS and Fox’s protection incentives; if the tentative is a game that would be valuable even if it needs to be flexed out (such as a Cowboys game), that affects both networks’ willingness to leave a week unprotected equally.
Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC, although Week 17 is exempt from team appearance limits. For the entire first decade of SNF, no team started the season completely tapped out at any measure, with every team having no more than three NBC appearances or five overall appearances; however, this year the Chiefs and Steelers have been given six appearances across all primetime packages, and in the Chiefs’ case, only Week 5’s Texans game even fell within the early flex period (and both NFL Network appearances are genuinely in primetime) – especially headscratching since the Jaguars and Browns have been saved from having to play Thursday night at all (the new Week 17 rules may have something to do with this, with the Jags and Browns being saved by a quirk of the calendar). A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.
Selected game: New England @ Denver.
Selected game: Green Bay @ Pittsburgh.
Selected game: Philadelphia @ Seattle.
Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh. Regarding the changes that were made, for many the headline is “Fox would rather have Seahawks-Jaguars in the late slot than Cowboys-Giants”, but in fact the move indicates the opposite of what it seems to, serving as a testament to how much of a draw Cowboys-Giants still is even in the early slot. Cowboys-Giants now gets to anchor an early slate where the best worse team across all the games is Tampa Bay at 4-7, only two games better than the Giants, and salvage good or at least acceptable ratings for the early slot with two name teams that can pop a rating no matter what. Meanwhile, Seahawks-Jags isn’t being moved to the late slot to be Fox’s new feature game, but to serve as the undercard to Eagles-Rams, inflating ratings in Jacksonville and the Pacific Northwest and serving as a backup if Eagles-Rams gets out of hand, and given the mediocrity of the early slate might have actually gotten better distribution had it remained early; I suspect it was only chosen as the game to move late to keep the Seahawks from having to play at 10 AM in their normal time zone (the Niners have to do the same thing, but Houston is in Central time, not on the Atlantic coast, and the Niners almost want to lose at this point). I bring all this up because it has bearing on the Week 15 flex.
Prospects: 5-6 v. 5-6, but as usual it would take the apocalypse hitting to dislodge a Cowboys game from Sunday night, and Oakland, at least, is still in playoff contention.
Likely protections: Patriots-Steelers (CBS) and probably Packers-Panthers (FOX).
Other possible games: Rams-Seahawks would be a good choice to flex in under more ideal circumstances. Any other games would involve going to teams below .500, and Cardinals-Trumps is the only game that stays with teams at 5-6 or above.
Analysis: If there is an argument for the league flexing in Rams-Seahawks, it’s the fact that right now it’s pinned to the 4 PM ET timeslot on the singleheader network when the doubleheader network’s protected game will in all likelihood determine home field in the NFC. Fox’s own protected game could feature the return of Aaron Rodgers so while Rams-Seahawks would be an attractive game to show in the home markets of teams with CBS early games, it’s probably not worth diluting Packers-Panthers distribution and undermining the CBS feature game to broaden Rams-Seahawks’ reach. The NFL has stepped in to broaden the distribution of potentially under-distributed singleheader-network games (especially those otherwise pinned to 4:05) before, most notably with the “protection override” of Chiefs-Broncos a few years ago (even Saints-Rams being crossflexed to CBS this past week arguably falls in this category, though it’s also precisely the situation for which the crossflex was developed regardless of original timeslot). But the Cowboys have never been flexed out of Sunday night, even when circumstances would absolutely warrant it with any other team, and with a game that still has playoff meaning (certainly for the Raiders), NBC would scream bloody murder at losing a Cowboys game even when swapping two potentially 5-7 teams for an 8-3 v. 7-4 divisional clash featuring the big (but lukewarm) Los Angeles market.
Notably (especially if you want to stick to the crossflex era), the league had a somewhat similar situation in Week 12 of 2014, and kept a matchup between the top two teams in the NFC West, the Cardinals at Seahawks, 8-1 v. 6-3 at the time the decision had to be made (with the Cardinals holding the league’s best record), in the late time slot of the Fox singleheader playing second fiddle to the 7-2 Lions at the 7-2 Patriots, while keeping CBS’ late slot anchored by a much more mediocre Dolphins-Broncos contest that stood at 5-4 v. 7-2, worse than either of those Fox games. The game the league kept on NBC that time involved a Cowboys team with a much less disappointing season (the problem was lopsidedness, not overall mediocrity), their opponents the Giants were and are a bigger draw in their own right than the Raiders, and all else being equal the Rams can probably pop a bigger rating than the Cardinals, but given the league’s other history with Cowboys SNF games color me skeptical that they’ll pull the trigger now.
Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Oakland Raiders (no change).
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Jaguars-Titans, Packers-Lions, Bills-Dolphins, Cardinals-Seahawks.
Prospects: 5-5 v. 9-2. Not terrible, exactly, and the Ravens actually came into the week tied for the second wild card (if Vikings-Panthers is flexed in I could see Ravens-Steelers being CBS’ lead game), but still a bit lopsided and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry has seen better days.
Likely protections: Raiders-Chiefs or Vikings-Panthers if anything (CBS) and Cowboys-Giants (FOX).
Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Eagles (10-1)-Rams (8-3), Vikings (9-2)-Panthers (8-3), Seahawks (7-4)-Jaguars (7-4).
Impact of Monday Night Football: Will the Ravens be 6-5 and tied for the second wild card, or will they fall to a 4-6 Texans team at home and potentially set up the Steelers needing only a win to clinch the division, if they haven’t clinched it already?
Analysis: Ravens-Steelers is likely to have immediate playoff implications for both teams, and I continue to hold that it’s hard to imagine it losing its spot if the Ravens win (even if they lose the game is really only in jeopardy because the alternatives are strong enough to overcome the tentative game bias), but if they lose things get interesting, not only in regards to the question of whether it loses its spot at all but what game it gets replaced with. The general manager of the Coliseum is on record saying that “there are no restrictions on the venue playing host to a Sunday night game”, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the league would be so quick to take Eagles-Rams with Vikings-Panthers sitting there as an alternative. It’s worth noting that Fox has the doubleheader and could make Eagles-Rams its lead late game without any game time changes, while Vikings-Panthers was crossflexed to CBS, and while the league could conceivably “undo” the crossflex to get it a wider audience CBS would likely want another game to be crossflexed back at the very least (as they’d be left with five games with only three of them in the early slot), assuming such a thing is even possible at all; flexing it into Sunday night not only means Ravens-Steelers doesn’t get caught up in the crossflex rules but actually takes a crossflex off the board without replacement (which could be important, as all seven Fox-to-CBS crossflexes have been used). The Jaguars continue to be potential ratings poison, and if Eagles-Rams got flexed in Fox could always go back to their original plan, as a Cowboys game, even against the woeful Giants, is always better than most alternatives.
Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change) (if the Ravens win Monday night), Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (if the Ravens lose Monday night, CBS didn’t protect it, and previously crossflexed games can be moved to Sunday night), Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams (if the Ravens lose Monday night and Vikings-Panthers is protected or can’t be moved to Sunday night for other reasons).
Prospects: 5-5 v. 8-2. Not terrible, exactly, and the Ravens are actually tied for the second wild card, but still a bit lopsided and the Steelers-Ravens rivalry has seen better days.
Other possible games: The general manager of the Coliseum is now on record saying that “there are no restrictions on the venue playing host to a Sunday night game”, but Vikings-Panthers remains a game the league (if not NBC) might prefer to Eagles-Rams even without the Eagles’ one-loss status, if CBS didn’t protect it. Seahawks-Jaguars remains a game that would be a strong option if one of the teams wasn’t the Jags.
Analysis: The Ravens play on Monday night against a beatable Texans team and if they win (and possibly even if both they and the Steelers lose) it’s hard to imagine this game losing its spot. But if the game becomes more lopsided, 9-2 v. 8-3, as either Eagles-Rams or Vikings-Panthers could be, would be very difficult to pass up, even though Ravens-Steelers would still have playoff implications for both teams.
Prospects: 5-5 v. 4-6, but as usual it would take the apocalypse hitting to dislodge a Cowboys game from Sunday night.
Other possible games: Rams-Seahawks would be a good choice to flex in under more ideal circumstances. Any other games would involve going to teams below .500, and Dolphins-Bills, Cardinals-Trumps, Texans-Jaguars, and even Bengals-Vikings aren’t that appealing even then; certainly they wouldn’t overcome the tentative game bias even if the Cowboys weren’t involved.
Possible games: Panthers-Falcons, Jaguars-Titans, Packers-Lions, Bills-Dolphins, Cowboys-Eagles, Cardinals-Seahawks.
Prospects: 8-1 v. 6-3 and a matchup between two teams in the thick of the playoff mix.
Likely protections: Probably Patriots-Bills (CBS) and honestly, probably nothing for Fox, as any of their games are possibly protectable.
Other possible games: Panthers-Saints and Vikings-Falcons are the only games involving only teams above .500.
Analysis: At the same time it announced a crossflex for Week 12, the league also announced it was moving Panthers-Saints to become Fox’s lead national game this week, and listed a “final schedule” for both weeks, implying Eagles-Seahawks isn’t going to be flexed out no matter what. Of course it’s not like either game was going to overcome the tentative game bias anyway, not when the teams involved are this good (the best-case scenario for a flex is Panthers-Saints at 8-2 v. 7-3 with Eagles-Seahawks at 8-2 v. 6-4), but this allows me to make next week’s post right after the Monday night game ends.
Final prediction/actual selection: Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks (no change).
Prospects: 4-5 v. 7-2. The AFC is shoddy enough that the Ravens are only a game out of the wild card, but this game is looking pretty lopsided with the Steelers running away with the division, and the Ravens-Steelers rivalry can’t carry a game by itself anymore.
Other possible games: As mentioned last week, the general manager of the Coliseum is now on record saying that “there are no restrictions on the venue playing host to a Sunday night game”. Still, if Vikings-Panthers is unprotected the league may want to make good neighbors with USC and the Coliseum’s neighbors and take Vikings-Panthers even with a slightly worse pair of records, especially with the Eagles on SNF the previous week and the Rams having an outside shot at being flexed in next week (if the Cowboys’ invulnerability to being flexed out somehow disappears). Seahawks-Jaguars remains a game involving a good pair of records but a team in the Jaguars the league and networks may instinctively blanch at the prospect of featuring.
Prospects: 5-4 v. 4-5, but as usual it would take the apocalypse hitting to dislodge a Cowboys game from Sunday night.
Other possible games: Rams-Seahawks would be a good choice to flex in under more ideal circumstances. Any other games would involve going to teams below .500, and Dolphins-Bills and Cardinals-Trumps aren’t that appealing even then; certainly they wouldn’t overcome the tentative game bias even if the Cowboys weren’t involved.
Prospects: 5-4 v. 7-2 and two name teams, very difficult to let go of. For the Packers, beating the Bears on the road without Aaron Rodgers likely saves this game from being flexed out.
Likely protections: Broncos-Raiders or Dolphins-Patriots (CBS) and probably Panthers-Jets if anything (FOX).
Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Saints (7-2)-Rams (7-2) and Dolphins (4-4)-Patriots (7-2).
Impact of Monday Night Football: The Dolphins are trying to make Dolphins-Patriots a matchup of two teams with records above .500, but with identical records to the tentative.
Analysis: As mentioned earlier, any notion of flexing out this game depended on the Packers losing to the Bears and painting a picture of a Packers team in freefall.
Final prediction: Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).
Prospects: 4-4 v. 6-2 and two name teams, very difficult to let go of. The Packers haven’t won since Aaron Rodgers went down, but those games were against good, playoff-worthy teams. The Lions are a little more concerning as they were 3-4 before the game, but the Packers would need to lose to the 3-5 Bears for this game to be in serious jeopardy.
Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games. That said, if they were bigger-name teams and if it weren’t for the Chiefs already being maxed out on primetime appearances, I might have named Bills-Chiefs as a candidate for protection, and if it weren’t for the latter, the quality of the tentative, and how long it would make the trip from the Thanksgiving night game in Washington, it’d at least be under consideration for a move to Sunday night. In lieu of that, the league’s only options involving only teams at or above .500 are Saints-Rams, which depends on a night game at the Coliseum the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend being an option, or Dolphins-Patriots, which may or may not have been protected. Panthers-Jets might sneak in if I was wrong about Fox’s protection (Bucs-Falcons was also somewhat viable at the time).
Analysis: For reasons I lay out below, Saints-Rams may well be a viable option. USC’s season would be over except for a possible Pac-12 Championship Game trip, which I believe would be at Levi’s Stadium. It would pit a big market, albeit one that’s lukewarm towards having their own NFL team (let alone two), against a name team in its own right, and two division leaders at what’s currently 6-2. It’s an iffier proposition than in two weeks, but if it looks like the Packers are going into freefall without Aaron Rodgers, it’d be hard for the league not to make the flex. Panthers-Jets and Dolphins-Pats would result in less unplanned travel from Washington, but would need the weaker AFC East teams to win (and the Dolphins have a Monday night tilt with the Panthers). If the Packers lose, expect me to have a convoluted prediction in my Last-Minute Remarks.
Prospects: 8-1 v. 5-3, a skosh lopsided but the Seahawks are still very much in the playoff mix.
Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is the only game involving only teams above .500. Vikings-Falcons and Rams-Cardinals might also be viable, but it’d be very hard for them to overcome the tentative game bias under the circumstances.
Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-2. The Ravens aren’t quite out of the playoff race, but the Steelers may be pulling away with the division, and this rivalry doesn’t have the fire it used to.
Other possible games: I didn’t look at the comments on my Week 7 post until I started putting this one together, so I didn’t see that the general manager of the Coliseum is now on record saying that “there are no restrictions on the venue playing host to a Sunday night game”. The article is specifically in the context of Eagles-Rams, so I’m not sure how much that applies to Saints-Rams which would be more unbeatable, or even if the article being about Eagles-Rams itself implies that Saints-Rams can’t be flexed to primetime (regardless I have to assume the fact the article talks about it implies that Eagles-Rams wasn’t protected). As it stands Eagles-Rams may have to contend with a Vikings-Panthers game that’s nearly as strong record-wise, and if Saints-Rams gets flexed the NFL may want to stay away from flexing in a second Rams home game if it has another viable option. Of course all this assumes CBS didn’t protect Vikings-Panthers. Seahawks-Jaguars also remains an intriguing option, but I’m not even sure it would replace Eagles-Rams as Fox’s featured late game if Eagles-Rams were flexed in, the Jags have that little juice. But it’d still have more juice than the emerging dark horse Titans-Cardinals.
Prospects: 5-3 v. 4-5, but again it would take the apocalypse hitting to dislodge a Cowboys game from Sunday night.
Likely protections: Patriots-Steelers (confirmed) (CBS) and probably Packers-Panthers (FOX).
Other possible games: Rams-Seahawks looks to be a very strong potential option. Dolphins-Bills and Cardinals-Trumps are dark horses.
Prospects: 7-1 v. 4-3, but when it’s the Cowboys the records don’t matter, and these are the top two teams in the division.
Likely protections: Ravens-Packers, with a possibility of Patriots-Raiders if that game in Mexico City could be flexed to primetime to begin with (CBS) and Rams-Vikings if anything (FOX).
Other possible games: Bengals-Broncos and Cardinals-Texans pit two 3-4 teams against each other, and Natives-Saints pits a 3-4 team against a 5-2 team. You’d have to take a below-.500 team if I’m right about the protections.
Analysis: The protected games, especially Rams-Vikings, are juicier, but it’s hard to imagine the league flexing out of a game featuring a Cowboys team above .500 (at that mark at worst) going up against what might be the best team in the league.
Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).
Prospects: 4-3 v. 6-2 and two name teams, very difficult to let go of, even if the Packers go into the tank without Aaron Rodgers. The Packers would need to lose to the Lions this week, and then the Bears in the last week before the decision needs to come down, to put this in serious jeopardy.
Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games. That said, if they were bigger-name teams and if it weren’t for the Chiefs already being maxed out on primetime appearances, I might have named Bills-Chiefs as a candidate for protection, and if it weren’t for the latter, the quality of the tentative, and how long it would make the trip from the Thanksgiving night game in Washington, it’d at least be under consideration for a move to Sunday night. In lieu of that, the league’s only options involving only teams at or above .500 are Saints-Rams, which depends on a night game at the Coliseum the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend being an option, or Dolphins-Patriots, which may or may not have been protected.
Prospects: 7-1 v. 5-2, about as good as could be hoped for at the moment.
Prospects: 4-4 v. 6-2. The Ravens have snapped their losing skid, but the Steelers might be starting to run away with the division, and this rivalry doesn’t have as much fire as it used to.
Likely protections: Raiders-Chiefs or Vikings-Panthers if anything (CBS) and Cowboys-Giants or (less likely) Eagles-Rams (FOX).
Other possible games: Did CBS leave Vikings-Panthers unprotected? If so, it’d be hard to beat. Is it possible for the Coliseum to host a Sunday night game in mid-December, after college football season is over but in the midst of USC finals, and would the NFL be okay with the Eagles having back-to-back Sunday night games? If so, that becomes an option, though if NBC were as desperate for it as one of my commenters thinks they’d have it scheduled to begin with (yes, no one thought the Rams would be this good, but still). But even without those two games, keep an eye on Seahawks-Jaguars. Would the NFL flex out of a game involving a rivalry that still has some resonance and a team with a fanbase far outside its home market for one involving a team most people are only aware of because they’re surprised they’re still in Jacksonville? Wait and see.
Prospects: 4-3 v. 3-5, but again it would take the apocalypse hitting to dislodge a Cowboys game from Sunday night.
Other possible games: If one of the teams in the tentative weren’t the Cowboys, Rams-Seahawks would be another reason not to flex in Eagles-Rams the previous week, with Dolphins-Bills a bit behind. Texans-Jaguars, Bengals-Vikings, and Cardinals-Trumps are worth keeping an eye on as games involving teams at 3-4.
Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

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