Source: http://research.omicsgroup.org/index.php/Andrey_Korotayev
Timestamp: 2019-04-22 14:51:13+00:00

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In 2012 he was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.
Andrey Vitalievich Korotayev (Russian: Андре́й Вита́льевич Корота́ев; born February 17, 1961) is a Russian anthropologist, economic historian, and sociologist, with major contributions to world-systems theory, cross-cultural studies, Near Eastern history, Big History, and mathematical modeling of social and economic macrodynamics.
He is currently the Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Risks of Sociopolitical Destabilization of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, and a Senior Research Professor at the Center for Big History and System Forecasting of the Institute of Oriental Studies   as well as in the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
In addition, he is a Senior Research Professor of the International Laboratory on Political Demography and Social Macrodynamics (PDSM) of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, as well as a Full Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State University.
He is co-editor of the journals Social Evolution & History and Journal of Globalization Studies, as well as History & Mathematics almanac (together with Leonid Grinin and Arno Tausch).
Together with Askar Akayev and George Malinetsky he is a coordinator of the Russian Academy of Sciences Program "System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of World Dynamics".
Born in Moscow, Andrey Korotayev attended Moscow State University, where he received a B.A. in 1984 and an M.A. in 1989. He earned a Ph.D. in 1993 from Manchester University, and in 1998 a Doctor of Sciences degree from the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Since 2000, he has been Professor and Director of the Anthropology of the East Center at the Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow, and Senior Research Professor in the Oriental Institute and Institute for African Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences. In 2001-2003, he also directed the "Anthropology of the East" Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow and is now the Head of the Laboratory of Monitoring of the Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks at this University. In 2003-2004, he was a visiting member at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, NJ.
Korotayev is a laureate of the Russian Science Support Foundation in "The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences" nomination (2006). In 2012 he was awarded with the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.
In this field he has proposed one of the most convincing mathematical explanations for von Foerster's Doomsday Equation. In collaboration with his colleagues, Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina, he has shown that till the 1970s the hyperbolic growth of the world population was accompanied by quadratic-hyperbolic growth of the world GDP, and developed a number of mathematical models describing both this phenomenon; he has also described mathematically the World System withdrawal from the blow-up regime observed in the recent decades.
He has also produced a number of mathematical models describing specifically long-term political-demographic dynamics of Egypt and used them for a demographic structural analysis of the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Korotayev was one of the first to predict and assess the 2013 Egyptian Revolution .
In collaboration with Daria Khaltourina he has made a significant contribution to the study of the factors of the current Russian demographic crisis. They have demonstrated that post-Soviet Russia experiences one of the world's highest prevalence of alcohol-related problems, which contributes to high mortality rates in this region. Reduction in alcohol-related problems in Russia can have strong effects on mortality decline. They have analyzed the plausibility of application of general principles of alcohol policy translated in the Russian Federation. Korotayev and Khaltourina have shown that alcohol policy approaches could be implemented in the same ways as they have been in other countries. In addition, according to Korotayev, there should be special attention to decreasing distilled spirits consumption, illegal alcohol production, nonbeverage alcohol consumption, and enforcement of current governmental regulations.
In general, Korotayev and his colleagues have suggested a rather novel approach to the world-system analysis. Within this approach the main emphasis is moved to the generation and diffusion of innovations. If a society borrows systematically important technological innovations, its evolution already cannot be considered as really independent, but should rather be considered as a part of a larger evolving entity, within which such innovations are systematically produced and diffused. The main idea of the world-system approach was to find the evolving unit. The basic idea was that it is impossible to account for the evolution of a single society without taking into consideration that it was a part of a larger whole. However, traditional world-system analysis concentrated on bulk-good movements, and core – periphery exploitation, somehow neglecting the above-mentioned dimension. However, according to Korotayev, the information network turns out to be the oldest mechanism of the World System integration, and remained extremely important throughout its whole history, remaining important up to the present. It seems to be even more important than the core – periphery exploitation (for example, without taking this mechanism into consideration it appears impossible to account for such things as the demographic explosion in the 20th century, whose proximate cause was the dramatic decline of mortality, but whose main ultimate cause was the diffusion of innovations produced almost exclusively within the World System core). This also suggests a redefinition of the World System core. Within the approach in question the core is not the World System zone, which exploits other zones, but rather the World System core is the zone with the highest innovation donor/recipient ratio, the principal innovation donor.
Korotayev was also one of the pioneers (together with his colleagues) of the study of correlation between spatial distributions of folklore-mythological motifs  and genetic markers, as well as linguistic and sociostructural characteristics, and produced in this area significant results with respect to the deep history reconstruction.
Al-Masjid al-Nabawi (the Mosque of the Prophet) in Medina, Saudi Arabia, is the site of Muhammad's tomb.
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth (KomKniga/URSS, 2006, with Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina).
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends (KomKniga/URSS, 2006, with Artemy Malkov and Daria Khaltourina).
Evolutionary Agent-Based Model of Pre-State Warfare Patterns: Cross-Cultural Tests. World Cultures 15/1 (2004): 28–36 (with Mikhail Burtsev).
A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution in the Journal of World Systems Research 11/1 (2005): 79-93.
Return of the White Raven: Postdiluvial Reconnaissance Motif A2234.1.1 Reconsidered. Journal of American Folklore 119 (2006): 472–520.
Korotayev, Andrey; Zinkina, Julia; Bogevolnov, Justislav (2011). "Kondratieff waves in global invention activity (1900–2008)". Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (7): 1280. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.011.
Malkov, Artemy; Zinkina, Julia; Korotayev, Andrey (2012). "The origins of dragon-kings and their occurrence in society". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 391 (21): 5215. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2012.05.045.
Globalization Shuffles Cards of the World Pack: In Which Direction is the Global Economic-Political Balance Shifting? World Futures, 70: 515–545, 2014 (with Leonid Grinin).
Evolution: A Big History Perspective. Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2011. ISBN 978-5-7057-2905-0 <co-editor, with Leonid Grinin and Barry Rodrigue; in English>.
Evolution: Cosmic, Biological, and Social / Edited by L. E. Grinin, R. L. Carneiro, A. V. Korotayev, F. Spier. Volgograd, Uchitel 2011.
Forecasting and Modeling of Crises and World Dynamics. Moscow: LKI/URSS, 2010 <co-editor, with Askar Akayev and Georgy Malinetsky; in Russian>.
System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks. Moscow: LKI/URSS, 2010 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Evolution: Problems and Discussions. Moscow: LKI/URSS, 2010 <co-editor; in Russian>.
History and Mathematics. Evolutionary Historical Macrodynamics. Moscow: LIBROCOM/URSS, 2010 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Causes of the Russian Revolution. Moscow: LKI/URSS, 2010 <co-editor; in Russian>.
System Monitoring. Global and Regional Development. Moscow: LIBROCOM /URSS, 2010 <co-editor; in Russian>.
History and Mathematics. Processes and Models. М.: URSS, 2009 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Political Aspects of Modernity / Ed. by L. E. Grinin, D. D. Beliaev, A. V. Korotayev. Moscow: LIBROCOM/URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in English>.
Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Ancient and Medieval Cultures/ Ed. by L. E. Grinin, D. D. Beliaev, A. V. Korotayev. Moscow: LIBROCOM/URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in English>.
Problems of Mathematical History. Historical Reconstruction, Forecasting, Methodology. М.: LIBROCOM /URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Problems of Mathematical History. Mathematical Modeling of Historical Processes. М.: LIBROCOM /URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Problems of Mathematical History. Basics, Information Resources, Data Analysis. М.: LIBROCOM /URSS, 2008. С. 235–245 <co-editor; in Russian>.
History and Mathematics. Models and Theories. Moscow: LKI/URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Alcohol Catastrophe. Moscow: LENAND/URSS, 2008 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Interethnic Relations in Contemporary Tanzania. The 2005 Field Season of the Russian Multidisciplinary Expedition in the United Republic of Tanzania. Moscow: Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2007 <co-editor; in Russian>.
History & Mathematics: Analyzing and Modeling Global Development. Moscow: URSS, 2006 <co-editor; in English>.
History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: URSS, 2006 <co-editor; in English>.
History and Complexity Studies: Mathematical Modeling of Social Dynamics. Moscow: URSS, 2005 <co-editor; in Russian>.
The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2004 <co-editor; in Russian>.
The Moscow School of Quantitative Cross-Cultural Research. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE, 2003 (Cross-Cultural Research 37/1) <co-editor; in English>.
Alternatives of Social Evolution. Vladivostok: Dal'nauka, 2000 <co-editor; in English>.
Civilizational Models of Politogenesis. Moscow: Inst. for Afr. Stud. Press, 2000 <co-editor; in English>.
Alternatives Pathways to Civilization. Moscow: Logos, 2000 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Sociobiology of Ritual and Group Identity: A Homology of Animal and Human Behaviour. Moscow: Russian State University for Humanities, 1998 <co-editor; in English>.
Alternativity of History. Donetsk: Donetskoe Otdelenie SAMI, 1992 <co-editor; in Russian>.
Archaic Society: Key Problems of Evolutionary Sociology. Moscow: Institut istorii SSSR AN SSSR, 1991 <co-editor; in Russian>.
^ a b "The Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences". Russian Academy of Sciences. Retrieved June 27, 2006.
^ "Андрей Витальевич Коротаев". Istina. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
^ "Journal of Globalization Studies". 2010. ISSN 2075-8103.
^ "History and mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies". URSS. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
^ Note that the analysis of log-linear oscillations in the gold price dynamics for 2003–2010 conducted recently by him together with Askar Akayev allowed them to forecast in November 2010 a possible start of the second wave of the global crisis in June – August 2011. See Askar Akayev, Alexey Fomin, Sergey Tsirel, and Andrey Korotayev. Log-Periodic Oscillation Analysis Forecasts the Burst of the "Gold Bubble" in April – June 2011. Structure and Dynamics 4/3 (2010): 1-11.
^ Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. (2006). "Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends". Moscow: URSS.
^ a b See, e.g., Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS Publishers, 2006.
^ See, e.g., Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS Publishers, 2006; Korotayev A. V. A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution // Journal of World-Systems Research 11/1 (2005): 79–93; for a detailed mathematical analysis of this issue see A Compact Mathematical Model of the World System Economic and Demographic Growth, 1 CE - 1973 CE; for an analysis of this pattern suggested by Korotayev see, e.g., Carter, B., (2008), “Five or six step scenario for evolution?” Int. J. Astrobiology 7 (2008) 177-182. As Francis Heylighen puts it, "an elegant example is the explanation by Korotayev of the hyperbolic growth of the world population until 1960. In the model, population growth is initially modeled by a traditional logistic growth equation, where population N starts by growing exponentially but then slows down until it reaches the maximum value expressed by the carrying capacity of the environment. This carrying capacity is proportional to the overall productivity of technology, i.e. its ability to extract from the natural environment the resources necessary for survival. In a second equation, the growth of technological productivity is considered to be proportional to the technology that is already there (simple exponential growth), but also to the population number, under the simple assumption that more individuals will discover more innovations. The authors shows that the two equations together produce a hyperbolic growth curve that mimics the observed historical growth of world population with a surprising accuracy (explaining over 99% of the variation for the period 500 BC–1962)" (Heylighen, Francis (2007). "Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the global brain" (PDF). In Modelski, G.; Devezas, T.; Thompson, W. Globalization as an Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change. London: Routledge. ISBN 978-0-415-77361-4 ).
^ a b Zinkina J., Korotayev A. Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts (Emerging Risks and Way Out). World Futures 70/2 (2014): 120–139.
^ Alexander V. Markov, and Andrey V. Korotayev (2007) "Phanerozoic marine biodiversity follows a hyperbolic trend" Palaeoworld 16(4): pp. 311-318; Markov, AV; Korotaev, AV (2008). "Hyperbolic growth of marine and continental biodiversity through the phanerozoic and community evolution". Zhurnal obshchei biologii 69 (3): 175–94. PMID 18677962.
^ a b c Korotayev A.V., Khaltourina D.A. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS, 2006. ISBN 5-484-00560-4.
^ Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 (2011): 139-169.
^ Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5/2 (2006): 112–147.
^ Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5/2 (2006): 112–147; see also Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS, 2006; Korotayev A.V., Khaltourina D.A. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS, 2006. ISBN 5-484-00560-4; note that these findings are relevant for the preindustrial social systems only.
^ Kohler, Timothy A., and Charles Reed. Explaining the Structure and Timing of Formation of Pueblo I Villages in the Northern U.S. Southwest. In Sustainable Lifeways: Cultural Persistence in an Ever-changing Environment, edited by Naomi F. Miller, Katherine M. Moore, and Kathleen Ryan, pp. 150-179. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, 2012.
^ See, e.g., Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 (2011): 139-169.
^ See, e.g., Korotayev A., Khaltourina D. Russian Demographic Crisis in Cross-National Perspective. Russia and Globalization: Identity, Security, and Society in an Era of Change. Ed. by D. W. Blum. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008. P. 37-78; Khaltourina, D. A., & Korotayev, A. V. 'Potential for alcohol policy to decrease the mortality crisis in Russia', Evaluation & the Health Professions, vol. 31, no. 3, Sep 2008. pp. 272–281.
^ Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. (2006), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Moscow: URSS, ISBN 5-484-00414-4  (Chapter 6: Reconsidering Weber: Literacy and "the Spirit of Capitalism"). P.87-91.
^ Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. (2006), Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Moscow: URSS, ISBN 5-484-00414-4  (Chapter 6: Reconsidering Weber: Literacy and "the Spirit of Capitalism"). P.88-91.
^ a b Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. (2006). "Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth". Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5-484-00414-4.
^ "Review of Social Macroevolution: Genesis and Transformation of the World System by Leonid Grinin and Andrey Korotayev". Social Studies. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
^ Korotayev A. V. A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution.Journal of World-Systems Research 11/1 (2005): 79–93; Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. (2006). Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5-484-00414-4; Korotayev A. Compact Mathematical Models of World System Development, and How they can Help us to Clarify our Understanding of Globalization Processes // Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change / Edited by George Modelski, Tessaleno Devezas, and William R. Thompson. London: Routledge, 2007. P. 133-160.
^ Korotayev, Andrey; Zinkina, Julia; Bogevolnov, Justislav (2011). "Kondratieff waves in global invention activity (1900–2008)". Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (7): 1280. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.02.011.
^ Andrey Korotayev. "World Religions and Social Evolution of the Old World Oikumene Civilizations: a Cross-Cultural Perspective". Mellen Press. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
^ See, e.g., Korotayev A. Form of marriage, sexual division of labor, and postmarital residence in cross-cultural perspective: A reconsideration. Journal of anthropological research ISSN 0091-7710. 2003, Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 69-89, Korotayev A. Division of Labor by Gender and Postmarital Residence in Cross-Cultural Perspective: A Reconsideration. Cross-Cultural Research. 2003, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp.335-372 doi:10.1177/1069397103253685.
^ Korotayev A., Berezkin Yu., Kozmin A., Arkhipova A.Return of the White Raven: Postdiluvial Reconnaissance Motif A2234.1.1 Reconsidered // Journal of American Folklore 119: 472–520.
^ See, e.g., "Midwest-Amazonian" Folklore-Mythological Parallels?. Acta Americana 14/1 (2006): 5–24; Myths and Genes. A Deep Historical Reconstruction. Moscow: Librokom/URSS, 2011; Which genes and myths did the different waves of the peopling of Americas bring to the New World?.
^ "Regions Based on Social Structure: A Reconsideration" 41 (5). Current Anthropology. 2000. pp. 668–69.
^ Andrey V. Korotayev (2003). "Unilineal Descent Groups and Deep Christianization: A Cross-Cultural Comparison". Journal of Comparative Social Science (Cross-Cultural Research) 37 (1): 132–156.
^ Korotayev A. V. (2000). "Parallel Cousin (FBD) Marriage, Islamization, and Arabization". Ethnology (JSTOR) 39 (4): 395–407.
^ E.g., Sabaean Cultural-Political Area: Some General Trends of Evolution // Proceedings of the Seminar for Arabian Studies. 23 (1993): 49-60.
^ See his Ancient Yemen, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1994; and his Pre-Islamic Yemen, Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz Verlag, 1995.
^ Korotayev A. V. "Were There Any Truly Matrilineal Lineages in the Arabian Peninsula?" Proceedings of the Seminar for Arabian Studies 25 (1995); pp. 83-98.
^ Socio-Political Conflict in the Qatabanian Kingdom? (A preliminary re-interpretation of the Qatabanic inscription R 3566). Proceedings of the Seminar for Arabian Studies 27 (1997): 141–158; this interpretation has been recognized as authoritative by the Corpus of South Arabian Inscriptions (Pisa: Edizioni Plus, 2004).
^ "A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia" 2 (2). Cliodynamics. 2011. pp. 1–28.
^ Korotayev A., Klimenko V., Proussakov D. "Origins of Islam: Political-Anthropological and Environmental Context" 53 (3-4). Acta Orientalia Academiae Scientiarum Hungaricae. pp. 243–276.
A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis. Structure and Dynamics. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57 (with Sergey Tsirel).

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