Source: https://pressurevesseltech.asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/article.aspx?articleid=2687888
Timestamp: 2019-04-19 05:34:19+00:00

Document:
Manuscript received December 3, 2017; final manuscript received July 5, 2018; published online December 14, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Tomoyo Taniguchi.
Earthquakes represent a class of natural-technical (NaTech) hazards which in the past have been responsible of major accidents and significant losses in many industrial sites. However, while codes and standards are issued to design specific structures and equipment in both the civil and industrial domain, established procedures for seismic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of process plants are not yet available. In this paper, a critical review of seismic QRA methods applicable to process plants is carried out. Their limitations are highlighted and areas where further research is needed are identified. This will allow to refine modeling tools in order to increase the capabilities of risk analysis in process plants subjected to earthquakes.
European Parliament, 2012, “ Directive 2012/18/EU (Seveso III) on the Control of Major-Accident Hazards Involving Dangerous Substances Amending and Subsequently Repealing Council Directive 96/82/EC,” European Union, Bruxelles, pp. 1–37.
HAZUS, 2001, Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology, National Institute of Building Science, Risk Management Solutions, Menlo Park, CA.
Hinz, G. , and Kerkhof, K. , 2013, “ System Identification and Reduction of Vibrations of Piping in Different Conditions,” ASME Paper No. PVP2013-97694.
Huang, Y. N. , Whittaker, A. S. , and Luco, N. , 2011, “ A Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure for Nuclear Power Plants—Part II: Application,” Nucl. Eng. Des., 241(9), pp. 3985–3995.
TNO, 1992, “ Methods for the Determination of Possible Damage, Green Book,” Director General of Labour, Voorburg, The Netherlands, Report No. CPR16E.
Caputo, A. C. , Giannini, R. , and Paolacci, F. , 2015, “ Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants: State of the Art Review and Directions for Future Research,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45374.
Alessandri, S. , Caputo, A. C. , Corritore, D. , Giannini, R. , Paolacci, F. , and Phan, H. N. , 2017, “ On the Use of Proper Fragility Models for Quantitative Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants in Seismic Prone Areas,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65137.
Paolacci, F. , Giannini, R. , and De Angelis, M. , 2012, “ Analysis of the Seismic Risk of Major-Hazard Industrial Plants and Applicability of Innovative Seismic Protection Systems,” Petrochemicals, P. Vivek , ed., IntechOpen, London.
Karamanos, S. , Bursi, O. S. , Reza, M. S. , Paolacci, F. , Varelis, G. , and Hoffmeister, B. , 2013, “ Structural Safety of Industrial Steel Tanks, Pressure Vessels and Piping Systems Under Seismic Loading,” INDUSE Project, Research Fund for Coal and Steel, European Union, Luxembourg, Final Report No. RFSR-CT-2009-00022.
Kikic, S. , Moncraz, P. , and Noakowsky, P. , 2001, “ A Preliminary Analysis of the Tupras Refinery Stack Collapse During Kocaeli Earthquake of 17 August 1999,” CICIND, Zurich, Switzerland, Vol. 17(1), CICIND Report.
Thermal and Nuclear Power Engineering Society, 2011, “ Special Topic: Reconstruction From the Earthquake (2nd report), Report of the Disaster Situation—Sendai Thermal Power Station and Shin-Sendai Thermal Power Station of Tohoku Electoric Power, Nakoso Power Plant of Joban Joint Power,” Vol. 62, Thermal and Nuclear Power Engineering Society, Sendai, Japan, pp. 1–7 (in Japanese).
Jain, S. K. , Lettis, W. R. , Murty, C. V. R. , and Bardet, J. P. , 2002, “ Bhuj, India Earthquake Reconnaissance Report. Supplement to Earthquake Spectra,” Vol. 18(S1), Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA.
Maekawa, A. , 2012, Recent Advances in Seismic Response Analysis of Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tanks, Earthquake-Resistant Structures, M. Abbas , ed., IntechOpen, London.
Mikami, A. , Sato, Y. , Otani, A. , Iwamoto, K. , and Iijima, T. , 2009, “ The Ultimate Strength of Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tanks Under Earthquakes, Elasto-Plastic Dynamic Analysis With FSI of Buckling Failure Modes,” ASME Paper No. PVP2009-77067.
Cortes, G. , and Nussbaumer, A. , 2011, “ Experimental Study on the Seismic Behavior of Shell-Base Connections in Large Storage Tanks,” Third International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COMPDYN), Corfu, Greece, May 25–28, pp. 1–8.
Matsui, T. , 2009, “ Sloshing in a Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tank With a Single-Deck Type Floating Roof Under Seismic Excitation,” ASME J. Pressure Vessel Technol., 131(2), p. 021303.
Nishi, H. , 2012, “ Damage on Hazardous Materials Facilities,” International Symposium on Engineering Lessons Learned From the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake,” Tokyo, Japan, Mar. 1–4, pp. 1–12.
Moat, A. M. , Morrison, J. T. A. , and Wong, S. , 2000, “ Performance of Industrial Facilities During 1999 Earthquakes: Implications for Risk Managers,” Global Change and Catastrophe Risk Management: Earthquake Risks in Europe, EuroConference, Laxenburg, Austria, July 6–9, pp. 1–12.
NFPA 59A, 2013, Standards for the Production, Storage and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA.
BS EN, 2005, “ Eurocode 8: Design of Structures for Earthquake Resistance–Part 1: General Rules, Seismic Actions and Rules for Buildings,” British Standard EN, Brussels, Belgium, Standard No. EN 1998-1.
Cornell, A. C. , 1968, “ Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58(5), pp. 1583–1606.
McGuire, R. K. , 1995, “ Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Design Earthquakes: Closing the Loop,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 85(5), pp. 1275–1284.
Bazzurro, P. , and Cornell, C. A. , 1999, “ Disaggregation of Seismic Hazard,” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 89(2), pp. 501–520.
Phan, H. , Paolacci, F. , and Alessandri, S. , 2018, “ Enhanced Seismic Fragility Analysis of Unanchored Steel Storage Tanks Accounting for Uncertain Modeling Parameters,” ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. (accepted).
Abrahamson, N. A. , 1992, “ Non-Stationary Spectral Matching,” Seismol. Res. Lett., 63(1), p. 30.
Cimellaro, G. P. , and Sebastiano, M. , 2015, “ A Computer-Based Environment for Processing and Selection of Seismic Ground Motion Records: OPENSIGNAL,” Front. Built Environ., 1, pp. 17–34.
Malhotra, P. K. , and Veletsos, A. S. , 1994, “ Uplifting Response of Unanchored Liquid-Storage Tanks,” J. Struct. Eng., 120(12), pp. 3524–3546.
Phan, H. N. , Paolacci, F. , and P. Alessandri, S. , 2016, “ Fragility Analysis Methods for Steel Storage Tanks in Seismic Prone Areas,” ASME Paper No. PVP2016-63102.
Phan, H. N. , Paolacci, F. , and Mongabure, F. , 2017, “ Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of Unanchored Steel Liquid Storage Tanks Subjected to Seismic Loadings,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65814.
Zeng, L. , Jansson, L. G. , and Venev, Y. , 2014, “ On Pipe Elbow Elements in ABAQUS and Benchmark Tests,” ASME Paper No. PVP2014-28920.
Otani, A. , Shibutani, T. , Morishita, M. , Nakamura, I. , and Shiratori, M. , 2017, “ Seismic Qualification of Piping System by Detailed Inelastic Response Analysis—Part 2: A Guideline for Piping Seismic Inelastic Response Analysis,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65190.
Sone, A. , Yamauchi, T. , and Masuda, A. , 2014, “ A Load Combination Method for Seismic Design of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom Piping Systems With Friction Characteristics and Multiple Support Systems,” ASME Paper No. PVP2014-28132.
Vathi, M. , Karamanos, S. A. , Kapogiannis, I. A. , and Spiliopoulos, K. V. , 2015, “ Performance Criteria for Liquid Storage Tanks and Piping Systems Subjected to Seismic Loading,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45700.
Campedel, M. , Antonioni, G. , Cozzani, V. , Buratti, N. , Ferracuti, B. , and Savoia, M. , 2008, “ Quantitative Risk Assessment of Accidents Induced by Seismic Events in Industrial Sites,” Chemical Engineering Transaction, Vol. 13, MIlan, Italy.
ALA, 2002, “ Seismic Design and Retrofit of Piping Systems,” American Lifelines Alliance, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC.
Iervolino, I. , Fabbrocino, G. , and Manfredi, G. , 2004, “ Fragility of Standard Industrial Structures by a Response Surface Based Method,” J. Earthquake Eng., 8(6), pp. 927–945.
Bu, S. J. , and Abhinav, G. , 2015, “ Seismic Fragility of Threaded Tee-Joint Connections in Piping System,” Int. J. Pressure Vessels Piping, 132–133, pp. 106–118.
Caprinozzi, S. , Ahmed, M. , Paolacci, F. , Bursi, O. S. , and La Salandra, V. , 2017, “ Univariate Fragility Models for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Refinery Piping Systems,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65138.
Wieschollek, M. , Hoffmeister, B. , and Feldmann, M. , 2013, “ Experimental and Numerical Investigations on Nozzle Reinforcements,” ASME Paper No. PVP2013-97430.
Vathi, M. , and Karamanos, S. A. , 2015, “ Simplified Model for the Seismic Performance of Unanchored Liquid Storage Tanks,” ASME Paper No. PVP2015-45695.
Caputo, A. C. , 2016, “ A Model for Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Process Plants,” ASME Paper No. PVP2016-63280.
Uijt De Haag, P. A. M. , and Ale, B. J. M. , 2005, “ Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, Purple Book,” Committee for the Prevention of Disasters, The Hague, Netherlands, Report No. CPR18E.
Reniers, G. , and Cozzani, V. , 2013, Domino Effects in the Process Industries, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, p. 84.
Salzano, S. , and Cozzani, V. , 2005, “ The Analysis of Domino Accidents Triggered by Vapor Cloud Explosions,” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 90, pp. 271–284.
Pinkawa, M. , Hoffmeister, B. , and Feldmann, M. , 2014, “ Floor Response Spectra Considering Influence of Higher Modes and Dissipative Behaviour,” Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities, S. Klinkel , C. Butenweg , G. Lin , and B. Holtschoppen , eds., Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden, Germany.
STREST, 2016, “ Harmonized Approach to Stress Tests for Critical Infrastructures against Natural Hazards, STREST Reference Report: Report on Lessons Learned From Recent Catastrophic Events,” G. Tsionis, A. Pinto, D. Giardini, and A. Mignan, eds., European Union, Luxembourg.
Sadeg-Azar, H. , and Hasenbank-Kriegbaum, T. D. , 2014, “ Probabilistic Seismic Analysis of Existing Industrial Facilities,” International Conference on Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities (SeDIF), Aachen, Germany, Sept. 26–27, pp. 101–112.
Caputo, A. C. , and Vigna, A. , 2017, “ Numerical Simulation of Seismic Risk and Loss Propagation Effects in Process Plants: An Oil Refinery Case Study,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65465.
Romeo, R. W. , 2014, “ Seismic Risk Analysis of a Oil-Gas Storage Plant,” Conference on Seismic Design of Industrial Facilities (SeDIF), Aachen, Germany, Sept. 26–27, ed., pp. 17–26.
Walley, P. , 1991, Statistical Reasoning With Imprecise Probabilities, Chapman and Hall, New York.
Shafer, G. , 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Caputo, A. C. , and Paolacci, F. , 2017, “ A Method to Estimate Process Plant Seismic Resilience,” ASME Paper No. PVP2017-65464.
API/ASME, 2007, “ Fitness for Service,” The American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York, Standard No. API 579-1/ASME FFS-1.
Caputo AC, Paolacci F, Bursi OS, Giannini R. Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants. ASME. J. Pressure Vessel Technol. 2018;141(1):010901-010901-15. doi:10.1115/1.4040804.

References: V. 
 V. 
 V. 
 V. 
 V. 
 V.