Source: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/kriegler
Timestamp: 2019-04-26 11:50:14+00:00

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Dr. Elmar Kriegler is Acting Head of the Research Department "Transformation Pathways" at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where he puts his focus on the Research Area "Mitigation and Sustainable Development Pathways". His core expertise is in integrated assessment of climate change, scenario analysis and decision making under uncertainty.
Elmar Kriegler has coordinated several international integrated assessment modeling projects and has been a coordinator or member of the scientific boards of several German and EU research projects. He had a coordinating role in the development of the Shared-Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in support of new scenarios for climate change research. He is also member of the scientific steering committee of the Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC). Elmar Kriegler has been a lead author for the chapters on "Transformation Pathways" in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report of Working Group 3 and "1.5°C Mitigation Pathways" in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C Warming and is currently serving as a lead author for the chapter on "Mitigation pathways compatible with long-term goals" in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group 3. He has published more than 80 articles in refereed journals and was named Highly Cited Researcher in 2018.
Elmar Kriegler received a diploma (MS equivalent) in physics from the University of Freiburg, Germany, in 1998, and a Ph.D. from the University of Potsdam, Germany, in 2005. He was a Marie Curie Fellow at the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA.
J. Rogelj, A. Popp, K. V. Calvin, G. Luderer, J. Emmerling, D. Gernaat, S. Fujimori, J. Strefler, T. Hasegawa, G. Marangoni, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, D. P. van Vuuren, J. Doelman, L. Drouet, J. Edmonds, O. Fricko, M. Harmsen, P. Havlík, F. Humpenöder, E. Stehfest and M. Tavoni (2018) Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change 8: 325–332, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3.
D. Huppmann, J. Rogelj, E. Kriegler, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2018) A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research [Comment]. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4.
J. Strefler, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler, A. Popp, A. Giannousakis, O. Edenhofer (2018) Between Scylla and Charybdis: Delayed mitigation narrows the passage between large-scale CDR and high costs. Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab2ba.
D. L. McCollum, W. Zhou, C. Bertram, H.-S. de Boer, V. Bosetti, S. Busch, J. Deprés, L. Drouet, J. Emmerling, M. Fay, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, M. Gidden, M. Harmsen, D. Huppmann, G. Iyer, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, C. Nicolas, S. Pachauri, S. Parkinson, M. Poblete-Cazenave, P. Rafaj, N. Rao, J. Rozenberg A. Schmitz, W. Schoepp, D.P. van Vuuren, K. Riahi (OA February 2019) Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Energy, 3, 7, 589-599, doi: 10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z.
Z. Vrontisi, G. Luderer, B. Saveyn, K. Keramidas, A. Reis Lara, L. Baumstark, C. Bertram, H. Sytze de Boer, L. Drouet, K. Fragkiadakis, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, C. Guivarch, A. Kitous, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, E. Ó Broin, L. Paroussos, D. P. van Vuuren (2018) Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab53e.
J. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, R. J. Millar, M. Allen, O. Boucher, M. Cain, P. M. Forster, E. Kriegler, D. Shindell (2018) Implications of possible interpretations of ‘greenhouse gas balance’ in the Paris Agreement. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A - Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0445.
C. Weber, D. L. McCollum, J. Edmonds, P. Faria, A. Pyanet, J. Rogelj, M. Tavoni, J. Thoma, E. Kriegler (2018) Mitigation scenarios must cater to new users [Comment]. Nature Climate Change, 8, 10, 845-848, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0293-8.
A. Schultes, M. Leimbach, G. Luderer, R.C. Pietzker, L. Baumstark, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler, O. Edenhofer (OA Januar 2019) Optimal international technology cooperation for the low-carbon transformation. Climate Policy, 18, 9, 1165-1176, doi: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1409190.
E. Kriegler, G. Luderer, N. Bauer, L. Baumstark, S. Fujimori, A. Popp, J. Rogelj, J. Strefler, D. P. van Vuuren (2018) Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A - Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0457.
J. Strefler, T. Amann, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler, J. Hartmann (2018) Potential and costs of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering of rocks. Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4.
G. Luderer, Z. Vrontisi, C. Bertram, O.Y. Edelenbosch, R. C. Pietzcker, J. Rogelj, H. Sytze De Boer, L. Drouet, J. Emmerling, O. Fricko, S. Fujimori, P. Havlik, G. Iyer, K. Keramidas, A. Kitous, M. Pehl, V. Krey, K. Riahi, B. Saveyn, M. Tavoni, D. P. van Vuuren, E. Kriegler (2018) Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5-2 °C pathways. Nature Climate Change, 8, 7, 626-633, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6.
E. Kriegler, C. Bertram, T. Kuramochi, M. Jakob, M. Pehl, M. Stevanovic, N. Höhne, G. Luderer, J.C. Minx, H. Fekete, J. Hilaire, L. Luna, A. Popp, J.C. Steckel, S. Sterl, A. Yalew, J.P. Dietrich, O. Edenhofer (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4f1.
C. Bertram, G. Luderer, A. Popp, J.C. Minx, W.F. Lamb, M. Stevanovic, F. Humpenöder, A. Giannousakis, E. Kriegler (2018) Targeted policies can compensate most of the increased sustainability risks in 1.5 °C mitigation scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 13, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac3ec.
N. Bauer, J. Hilaire, R.J. Brecha, J. Edmonds, K. Jiang, E. Kriegler, H-H. Rogner, F. Sferra (2016) Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework. Energy 111: 580-592.
U. Kreidenweis, F. Humpenöder, M. Stevanović, B. L. Bodirsky, E. Kriegler, H. Lotze-Campen, A. Popp. “Afforestation to Mitigate Climate Change: Impacts on Food Prices under Consideration of Albedo Effects.” Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 8 (August 1, 2016): 085001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085001.
C.D. Jones, P. Ciais, S. J. Davis, P. Friedlingstein, T. Gasser, G. P. Peters, J. Rogelj, D. P. van Vuuren, J. G. Canadell, A. Cowie, R. B. Jackson, M. Jonas, E. Kriegler, E. Littleton, J. A. Lowe, J. Milne, G. Shrestha, P. Smith, A. Torvanger, A. Wiltshire “Simulating the Earth System Response to Negative Emissions.” Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 9 (September 1, 2016): 095012. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012.
D.P. van Vuuren, H. van Soest, K. Riahi, L. Clarke, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, J. Rogelj, M. Schaeffer, M. Tavoni. “Carbon Budgets and Energy Transition Pathways.” Environmental Research Letters 11, no. 7 (July 1, 2016): 075002. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002.
K.L. Ebi, T. Kram, D.P. van Vuuren, B.C. O’Neill, E. Kriegler (2014) A new toolkit for developing scenarios for climate change research and policy analysis, Environment, 56(2): 6-16.
K. Calvin, L. Clarke, V. Krey, G. Blanford, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. Kriegler, G. Luderer, P. R. Shukla (2012) The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise. Energy Economics, 34(3): S251-S260.
E. Kriegler, M. Conestabile (2012) Building consistency (interview). Nature Climate Change, 2: 702.
E. Kriegler, B. C. O’Neill, S. Hallegatte, T. Kram, R. J. Lempert, R. H. Moss, T. Wilbanks (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: a new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 22: 807-822.
A. Lorenz, E. Kriegler, H. Held, M. G. W. Schmidt (2012) How to measure the importance of climate risk for determining optimal global abatement policies? Climate Change Economics, 3(1): 1250004-2-1250004-28.
A. Lorenz, M. G. W. Schmidt, E. Kriegler, H. Held, (2012) Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 17 (1-2): 163-175.
G. Luderer, R. Pietzcker, E. Kriegler, M. Haller, N. Bauer (2012) Asia’s role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R. Energy Economics, 34(3): S378-S390.
V. J. Schweizer, E. Kriegler (2012) Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4) 044011.
E. Kriegler (2011) Comment on “The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming”. Energy Economics, 33(4): 594-596.
M. G. W. Schmidt, A. Lorenz, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2011) Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies. Climatic Change, 104(3-4): 783-791.
E. Kriegler. J. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2009) Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), 106(13): 5041-5046.
H. Held, E. Kriegler, K. Lessmann, O. Edenhofer (2009) Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty. Energy Economics 31(1): S50-S61.
D. Patino-Echeverri, P. Fischbeck, E. Kriegler (2009) The economic and environmental costs of regulatory uncertainty for coal-fired power plants. Environmental Science & Technology 43(3): 578-584.
E. Kriegler (2009) Updating under unknown unknowns: An open version of Bayes' rule. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 50(4): 583-596.
H. Held, T. Augustin, E. Kriegler (2008) Bayesian learning for a class of priors with prescribed marginals. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 49: 212-233.
T. Lenton, H. Held, E. Kriegler, J.W. Hall, H. Held, R. Dawson, H.-J. Schellnhuber (2008) Tipping element's in the earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105: 1786-1793.
E. Kriegler (2007) On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate sytem? Environmental Research Letters 2, 011001.
E. Kriegler, H. Held (2005) Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 39: 185-209 (pre-press version of the paper).
O. Edenhofer, N. Bauer, E. Kriegler (2005) The impact of technological change on climate protection and welfare: Insights from the model MIND. Ecological Economics 54: 277-292.
E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner (2004) Sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors for the 21st century. Climatic Change 66: 345-387 (pre-press version of the paper).
J. Rogelj, D. Shindell, K. Jiang, S. Fifita, P. Forster, V. Ginzburg, C. Handa, H. Kheshgi, S. Kobayashi, E. Kriegler, L. Mundaca, R. Séférian, M. V. Vilariño (2018) Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
P. Forster, D. Huppmann, E. Kriegler, L. Mundaca, C. Smith, J. Rogelj, R. Séférian (2018) Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable developmentsupplementary material. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
Clarke L., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. Babiker, G. Blanford, K. Fisher-Vanden, J.-C. Hourcade, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, A. Löschel, D. McCollum, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P.R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, B. van der Zwaan, and D. P. van Vuuren, 2014: Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Krey V., O. Masera, G. Blanford, T. Bruckner, R. Cooke, K. Fisher-Vanden, H. Haberl, E. Hertwich, E. Kriegler, D. Mueller, S. Paltsev, L. Price, S. Schlömer, D. Ürge-Vorsatz, D. P. van Vuuren, and T. Zwickel, 2014: Annex II: Metrics & Methodology. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
O. Edenhofer, E. Kriegler, N. Bauer (2002) Szenarien zum Umbau des Energiesystems (Scenarios for a transition of the energy system), External report to the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), in German. Partly published in: WBGU (2003) World in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems, Chapter 4.5.1, Earthscan, London.
E. Kriegler, H. Held, T. Bruckner (2007) Climate protection strategies under ambiguity about catastrophic consequences. In J. Kropp, J. Scheffran (eds): Advanced Methods for Decision Making and Risk Management in Sustainability Science, Nova Science Publ. Inc., New York, pp. 3-42.
E. Kriegler (2007). Updating and testing beliefs: An open version of Bayes' rule. In: G. de Cooman, J. Vejnarova, M. Zaffalon (Eds.), Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA'07), pp. 271-280.
N. Bauer, O. Edenhofer, H. Held, E. Kriegler (2005) Uncertainty of the role of carbon capturing and sequestration within climate change mitigation strategies. In: E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith und C.F. Gilboy (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies. Volume 1: Peer-Reviewed Papers and Plenary Presentations, IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme, Elsevier Science.
J. Sachs, N. Nakicenovic, D. Messner, J. Rockström, G. Schmidt-Traub, S. Busch, G. Clarke, O. Gaffney, E. Kriegler, P. Kolp, J. Leininger, K. Riahi, S. van der Leeuw, D. van Vuuren, C. Zimm (2018) Transformations for Sustainable Development: A Synthesis. In Ed.: E. Kriegler, D. Messner, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, J. Rockström, J. Sachs, S. van der Leeuw, D. van Vuuren (2018) Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
N. Arnell, T. Kram, T. Carter, K. Ebi, J. Edmonds, S. Hallegatte, E. Kriegler, R. Mathur, B. C. O’Neill, K. Riahi, H. Winkler, D. van Vuuren, T. Zwickel (2011) A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation research. Scenario Framework Paper. Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). 42 p.
K. Tanaka, E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007) Aggregated carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate model (ACC2). Reports on Earth System Science No. 40, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg.
E. Kriegler (2005) Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change. Ph.D. thesis, University of Potsdam, 1-258 p.

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