Source: https://www.martenlaw.com/newsletter/20170117-esa-climate-change-best-available-science
Timestamp: 2019-04-26 00:05:06+00:00

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Recent cases involving imperiled species present interesting case studies of the tensions inherent in the Endangered Species Act [ESA] in dealing with science, uncertainty, and the politics of climate change. The first of these cases addresses the ESA listing of the wolverine; the second, of the Beringia bearded seal. Both cases concern species dwelling on the front line of the impacts of climate change: the Arctic and near-Arctic. Both cases raise the question of whether model-based climate predictions constitute the “best scientific and commercial data available” upon which to base government listing decisions. Together, the cases highlight both strengths and weaknesses of the ESA to protect species in the realm of a warming climate.
The North American wolverine, the largest terrestrial member of the weasel family, relies on deep snow to den and reproduce. Climate models predict long-term decline in snow cover in the wolverines’ habitat. The wolverine, not unlike the polar bear, is expected to be affected directly over the coming decades by warming temperatures and declines in snow levels. Seeing this, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) proposed to list the North American wolverine as a threatened species. This proposal, however, inspired a torrent of comments to FWS questioning or opposing the decision. The states of Colorado, Utah, Alaska, Idaho, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Montana all filed comments, either questioning the FWS analysis (Oregon and Washington), or outright opposing the listing (Utah, Alaska, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana). Following its receipt of these comments and a great deal of internal debate, FWS did an about-face and withdrew the proposed rule that it had issued 18 months earlier. The withdrawal led to the expected legal challenge filed by Defenders of Wildlife against the Secretary of the Interior, and the Director of FWS.
Ironically, the wolverine’s population in the United States is not obviously decreasing. So the case initially presented the question of whether it is appropriate to list a species as threatened based on long-term climate models when its present population is not necessarily in decline, and may even be increasing. Much of the case, however, turned on whether the FWS used the “best available science” as the ESA requires in listing decisions. The science relied upon by FWS for the proposed listing rule was complex – even cutting edge. It involved the down-scaling of an ensemble-average of long-term, coarse-scale, global climate models (“GPMs”), an averaging of selected emissions models, an hydrologic model which translated the climate models into snow-water equivalent and snow depth, and satellite imagery to correlate the GCM outputs to the ground. This enabled the mapping of known wolverine dens to current and projected snow cover. The modeling work came largely from two papers published in 2010 and 2011. The science was impressive, yet admittedly imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain in various respects, particularly in the spread of uncertainty in emission models over decades, since the modeling went out to 2045 and 2085, and in the downscaling of global models to attempt to make them locally predictive at a finer scale of resolution.
The climatemodels were those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) and are used by scientists and governments the world over. There are approximately 20 of these models and the study relied on by FWS averaged ten of them. But despite the high competence accorded IPCC climate models, modeling Earth’s future climate with any degree of precision, particularly beyond 2050, is not surprisingly an uncertain enterprise. Predictive climate models depend on the unknown future level of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) emitted into the atmosphere. “By mid-21st century, the magnitude of the projected climate change is substantially affected by the choice of emissions scenario.” And there is exceedingly wide variability in the projections. Emissions models, of which there are about 40, are really socio-economic-political assumptions incorporating various combinations of fossil fuel use, economic growth, transitions to renewable power sources, and global efforts to reduce emissions. The model used in the wolverine case adopted a scenario “reflecting a rapidly growing economy but with significant movement toward renewable power sources.”  The reviewing District Court characterized this choice as a “mid-range to conservative scenario.” Yet one may question if application of this scenario is appropriate now in light of the energy policies of the new administration. In any event, these not-strictly-scientific choices are inevitably components of the “best available science” used by the FWS and NMFS, and will take on increasing importance – and likely invite still more controversy – for any listing decisions relying on longer-range, post 2050, projections.
Loss of the sub-species in the contiguous United States would not represent a significant gap in relation to its entire range, which includes areas within the contiguous United States, Canada and Alaska. The population in the lower 48 states represents a small fraction of the entire range, such that it is insignificant when compared to its entire range.
There are too many unknowns as to how wolverines will respond to changes, indeed they may adapt.
The court’s reaction to these concerns from the states was blunt: “Of the numerous Western states which urged the Service not to list the wolverine and attacked the agency’s reliance on… [the study model], not one provided any scientific evidence directly rebuffing the study’s conclusions.” In other words, the comments were not in the Court’s view scientifically substantive. It appeared that the court instead saw the comments as per se objections against the use of climate projections in listing decisions.
Put another way, the court’s message was that it is beyond dispute that the globe is warming, that northerly, snowy ranges, particularly at the lower latitudes of such ranges, will eventually be snow-free, and that this completely snow-dependent creature will be imperiled. “It doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows…” and the best available science, even if incomplete or flawed, is certainly good enough, in the court’s view, to tell us what everybody already knew. The court seemed to imply that demands for extra-fine precision in the modeling were possibly disingenuous, concealing perhaps more fundamental, policy-oriented objections to the use of the ESA to conserve species in this long-term, projective way.
The wolverine case entailed two complete listing turnarounds. FWS’s listing was followed by its withdrawal of the listing, which was followed by judicial vacatur of the withdrawal, and remand. The bearded seal case involved a similar suite of listing turnarounds: the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) adopted a final rule listing the Beringia bearded seal DPS. The Alaska District Court vacated the listing and the Ninth Circuit then reversed the District Court’s vacatur, and remanded.
The predictions, as in the case of the wolverine, were considered reasonably supported by data through about 2050. This is because the model to mid-century will estimate the unfolding impacts of greenhouse gas emissions already known to be present in the atmosphere. NMFS, however, emphasized the greater uncertainty inherent in any longer-range prediction since it must rely upon estimating unknown future emissions.
The district court seized upon this long-term uncertainty in vacating the listing rule as arbitrary and capricious. “Under the facts in this case, forecasting more than 50 years into the future is simply too speculative and remote to support a determination that the bearded seal is in danger of becoming extinct.” In the court’s view there was no significant threat to the bearded seal before 2090. “[The] farther into the future the analysis extends, the greater the uncertainty.” Significantly, the court also held that there was insufficient data regarding the actual impact on the population from the gradual loss of sea ice, and that additional studies are needed.
The Ninth Circuit rejected this insistence upon the need for more certainty, and reversed the Alaska District Court’s decision. The court noted NMFS’s projected monthly sea ice concentrations between March and July for each decade from 2025 to 2095; the results (presumably in the near term) performed reliably well when applied to observational data in the Arctic. The court was possibly also influenced by a dramatic new study showing that temperatures in the Arctic were 30 years ahead of schedule and that the Arctic would be nearly ice free in summer by mid-century. The Ninth Circuit held that the IPCC climate models constituted the “best available science” and “reasonably supported the determination that a species reliant on sea ice would likely become endangered in the foreseeable future.” The projection up to 2050 was a period in which “specific data” supported the IPCC climate projections. What about the reliability of projections after that time, when the choices among emissions scenarios cause the results to diverge more dramatically?
The fact that climate projections for 2050 through 2100 may be volatile does not deprive those projections of value in the rulemaking process. The ESA does not require NMFS to make listing decisions only if the underlying research is ironclad and absolute. … NMFS provided a reasonable and scientifically supported methodology for addressing volatility in its long-term climate projections, and it represented fairly the shortcomings of those projections – that is all the ESA requires.
The Ninth Circuit also noted there is no ironclad definition of “foreseeable future,” and that different time frames are appropriate for different species and different threats. The court was emphatic that the ESA does not require an agency to obtain data which does not exist. It is merely to use the best available data, and explain its shortcomings.
Both court cases ultimately upheld the use of decades-forward climate change projections incorporating emissions scenarios as the best available science, if not the best possible science.
These cases together also illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the ESA in the realm of a warming climate. Strengths: there is actually a statutory framework (the ESA listing process) whereby threats to species caused by environmental changes, on great scales of space (global effects) and time (decades) can actually be considered in an orderly administrative setting. This can be accomplished with scientific input and peer review, subject to judicial oversight. Weaknesses: the exhaustive, expensive, lengthy, back-and-fourth history of each of these cases, and evident lack of universal consensus for the use of climate science in listing decisions, particularly beyond mid-century.
The wolverine case tested the best available science concept, as well as how that concept can be manipulated by decision-makers when a particular outcome is sought. The bearded seal case, in particular, tested the limits of what is “foreseeable” and how tenuous the line is between predictability and chance.
[FWS] expect[s] that it will indirectly enhance national and international cooperation and coordination of conservation efforts, enhance research programs, and encourage the development of mitigation measures that could help slow habitat loss and population declines.
It is likely that the tensions in the ESA listings between the science and best available science, between evidence and reasoned opinion, will themselves continue, far into the future.
 16 U.S.C. §1533(b)(1)(A). If after conducting the assessment, the applicable service finds it likely that a species will “become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range,” it must list that species as threatened. 16 U.S.C. §1532(20), §1533(b)(1)(B)(ii).
 Defenders of Wildlife v. Jewell, 176 F.Supp.3d 975 (D. Montana, 2016) [herein cited as Jewell].
 FWS received 118,000 submissions from affected states, non-governmental organizations, and interested individuals. Jewell at 986.
 “While the reclusive nature of the wolverine makes it nearly impossible to know for certain, it is estimated that no more than 300 individuals live in the contiguous United States.” Jewell at 980. The court’s description of the animal is of interest: “The wolverine is custom-built for life in mountainous, snowy environments, and relies upon snow for its existence at the most fundamental level. Physiologically, the wolverine exhibits a number of snow-adapted traits, including a lower threshold of thermoneutrality at -40° C; dense, hydrophobic, frost-resistant hair; and very low foot loadings, due to its disproportionately large paws [citation omitted]. Wolverines move effortlessly through deep snow and steep terrain—scientists observed one intrepid radio-collared individual travel eleven kilometers in four hours, gaining over 2,000 feet in elevation to summit an 8,000 foot mountain in Montana’s Glacier National Park.” Jewell at979.
 That “populations are continuing to expand both within the area currently inhabited by wolverines as well as suitable habitat not currently occupied and/or occupied with a few individuals” is one of the reasons that FWS withdrew the listing. Jewell at 994.
 The two papers are: J.P. Copeland et al., The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine (Gulo gulo): do climatic constraints limit its geographic distribution?, 88 Canadian J. Zoology, 2010, 233-246 [cited by the court as Copeland (2010)]; and Kevin S. McKelvey et al., Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, 21 Ecological Applications, no. 8, 2011, 2882-2897 [cited by the court as McKelvey (2011) ].
 FWS, in its withdrawal rationale, stated that “the Service did not have the [sic] sufficient resolution of predictive climate models nor certainty in those models to make definitive conclusions about both the amount and persistence of snowfall at the scale of specific wolverine den sites.” Jewell at 994. It stated that while the model was “the most sophisticated analysis of the impacts of climate change at a scale specific to wolverine,” its scale was not “fine enough to deal with the site-specific characteristics of wolverine dens.” Id. These FWS conclusions thus fly in the face of its initial reliance on the same studies to propose the listing rule.
 IPCC assessment reports may be found at https://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm.
 Emissions assumptions are called “Representative Concentration Pathways (“RPCs). Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been climbing steadily since the Industrial Revolution, but the rate of increase has increased dramatically in the last half of the 20th century. About half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2011 have occurred in the last 40 years. These findings are drawn from Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers found at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf [herein referred to as the IPCC Synthesis Report].
 IPCC Synthesis Report at 10.
 “Projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide range, depending on both socio-economic development and climate policy.” IPCC Synthesis Report at 8-10.
 According to the court, “[t]he four most common scenarios are: (1) A2, representing heavy use of fossil fuels; (2) A1B, reflecting a rapidly growing economy but with significant movement toward renewable power sources; and (3) Bl or B2, which represent more conservative scenarios associated with organized efforts to reduce emissions worldwide.” [Citation omitted.] The McKelvey (2011) authors applied the A1B emissions scenario to the averaged GCMs.” Jewell, footnote 6.
 The A2 emissions scenario, representing continued heavy use of fossil fuels, would likely portend greater, not less habitat loss for the wolverine, reinforcing the FWS’s listing decision.
 Most if not all models require the exercise of scientifically-informed judgment in selecting data and input parameters, and this professional expertise, peer-reviewed or otherwise, is part of what goes into the assessment of best available science. More fundamental “game changing” emissions scenarios involving socio-economic-political assumptions are arguably of a different order. It is not evident from the court case what the effects on wolverine habitat would be if other emissions scenarios had been chosen, but even conservative models do not show reversing trends in this century. “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios.” IPCC Synthesis Report at 10. “Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6.” IPCC Synthesis Report at 16.
 See generally, Jewell at 986-89. Not all states responded in the same way to the proposed listing. The list aggregates various responses from the opposing states. Some states included objections to federal control over the species, principally raising two points: that states are well-equipped to monitor and manage these populations; and that statewide conservation strategies should be used in lieu of listing. E.g., Jewell at 987-89.
 Jewell at 989. The two were among seven peer reviewers, five of whom supported FWS’s work on the proposed rule. They were co-authors on Copeland (2010) (cited in footnote 7 above). Jewell, footnote 9. In the spring of 2013, FWS had solicited comments from seven peer reviewers. They were asked to answer questions about the quality and comprehensiveness of the biology, the modeling, its conclusions, and the proposed rule, and whether there were any significant omissions or inconsistencies. Jewell at 989.
 Jewell at 1000 (emphasis added).
 FWS also sponsored a workshop of experts to get their views. “By February 2014 … the Service decided to convene a science panel to “[g]ain a better understanding of the level of agreement among scientists regarding” the science behind the Proposed Rule, as well as any “sources of uncertainty.” The Service did “[n]ot expect[ ] consensus, but hop[ed] to improve confidence in [its] decision.” [Citation omitted.] Nonetheless, “[w]ithdrawal of the proposed listing remain[ed] a potential outcome following the science panel.” Jewell at 991. “The Panel consisted of nine “experts in climate change, wolverines and other mammalian carnivores, habitat modelers, and population ecologists.” They were asked to score their feelings about how reliable the science was. The experts felt the snow cover projections were “about right” in the short term, but believed the model might be overestimating snow cover in the long-term. Id.
 The court was well aware that any ESA listing depends on fitting the candidate species to specific statutory requirements, and not an impressionistic notion of peril: “[T]he wolverine is a relic of the northern hemisphere’s last ice age, and it survives in very low numbers in those limited areas in the contiguous United States where ice age-like conditions persist. The wolverine’s sensitivity to climate change, in general, cannot really be questioned. In fact, many believe, similar to the polar bear, that the wolverine may serve as a land-based indicator of global warming. However, as explained in detail in this order, general supposition does not drive a listing determination under the ESA.” Jewell at 980. What does drive a listing determination with respect to a species are the requirements of 16 U.S.C. §1533(b)(1), including for example subsections (A)[“[T]he present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range…”] and (E)[“[O]ther natural or man-made factors affecting its continued existence…”].
 840 F.3d 671 (9th Cir. 2016)[herein cited as Pritzker]; rev’g Alaska Oil and Gas Association v. Pritzker, 2014 WL 3726121 (D. Alaska)[herein cited as Pritzker Lower Court Case].
 See generally Pritzker at 676.
 Pritzker Lower Court Case at 14. NMFS also applied the IPCC predictive models to observational data collected annually on sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Pritzker at 678.
 Pritzker Lower Court Case at 11.
 According to NMFS, “The model projections of global warming (defined as the expected global change in surface air temperature) out to about 2040-2050 are primarily due to emissions that have already occurred and those that will occur over the next decade. Thus conditions projected to mid-century are less sensitive to assumed future emissions scenarios. For the second half of the 21st century, however, the choice of an emissions scenario becomes the major source of variation among climate projections.” Pritzker Lower Court Case at 14.
Various commentators on the Beringia bearded seal listing rule suggested that the best scientific data cannot support a 100-year “foreseeable future,” and that 50 years sould be the maximum. Some suggested that current science cannot support a time horizon of greater than 20 years. One commentator said “projections of climate scenarios beyond 2050 are too heavily dependent on socioeconomic assumptions and are therefore too divergent for reliable use in assessing threats to the species.” Pritzker Lower Court Case at 13.
 Pritzker Lower Court Case at 15.
 Pritzker at 682. The court relied upon a Department of Interior internal memorandum on the more flexible interpretation of “foreseeable future.” Office of the Solicitor, Memorandum on the Meaning of “Foreseeable Future” in Section 3(20) of the Endangered Species Act, No. M-37021 (Jan. 16, 2009).
 Pritzker at 683-84 [citations omitted].
 The FWS’s original proposed rule listing the wolverine included this disclaimer: “A determination to list the contiguous United States DPS of the North American wolverine as a threatened species under the [ESA], if [the Service] ultimately determine[s] that listing is warranted, will not regulate greenhouse gas emissions. Rather, it will reflect a determination that the DPS meets the definition of a threatened species under the Act, thereby establishing certain protections for them under the ESA.” Jewell at 985 [emphasis added].

References: §1533
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