Source: http://staweb.sta.cathedral.org/departments/math/mhansen/public_html/1516apst/1516apst.htm
Timestamp: 2019-04-25 16:48:25+00:00

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2. Send Mr. Hansen an e-mail. Be sure to use the “double underscore” convention. See contact information for more details.
1. Read the Reserved Words handout from Wednesday, including the parts we did not go over in detail.
2. Read the first part of the preface (pp. xiii through xvi only) in your main textbook. No reading notes are required for this section.
Your notes may be in any style or format that you personally find helpful. They may be brief or extensive. However, you may not copy them from another student, and you need to be able to justify (if asked in class) why they were worth writing. “The topic was in boldface” is not an adequate justification. For example, if you write, “A sample is a subset of the population, selected for study in some prescribed manner,” you are probably wasting your time. Did you really not know what a sample is? Or if you didn’t know, did you really find that definition helpful? Recommendation: Put useful things in your reading notes that you didn’t already know, or things that you have questions about. Rephrasing in your own words is more helpful for learning than simply copying.
Note: The Barron’s review book is useful for reviewing for tests, but you do not need to bring it to class on a regular basis until late December or early January. Until then, bring only your main textbook. You will be informed of when to start bringing the Barron’s book to class.
IMPORTANT: Written homework must conform to the instructions found in the “HW guidelines” link above the schedule.
In class: Distributions, left and right skewness (including extreme skewness), bimodality, normality, and introduction to CLT.
1(a) If you were one of the students whose dotplot in Tuesday’s HW assignment had movie titles running across the x-axis and millions of dollars marked on the y-axis, redo your dotplot so that it is a real dotplot (or histogram, if you prefer).
2. Read pp. 27-39. Reading notes are required, as always.
3. Write pp. 31-32 #2.4 and 2.8.
4. Write pp. 40-41 #2.12, 2.15, and 2.20.
HW due: Read pp. 42-63. Reading notes are required, as always. Most future assignments will not repeat the reminder that reading notes are always required.
1. Write a better answer to #2.20 on p. 41.
2. Write pp. 41-42 #2.24, 2.28.
3. Perform all steps in the mini-lab described below.
Step 1: Using your calculator, press the MATH key. Then choose PRB from the menu, and select the randInt function. Enter the arguments 1 and 10, separated by a comma. Then press ENTER.
Press ENTER 15 or 20 more times. (Press only the ENTER key, nothing else.) Observe how a fresh pseudorandom value is produced each time you press ENTER.
Remember, you need to record 10 lines similar to that. The lowercase letter n will be used throughout the course to indicate the sample size. On those extremely rare occasions when we need to refer to the population size, we will use the capital letter N.
Remember, you need to record 10 lines similar to that.
Step 4: Make a histogram or dotplot of your 10 sample means from step 2. Follow the rule of thumb we discussed of using 5 to 7 bins.
Step 5: Make a separate histogram or dotplot using the same horizontal scale as in step 4, sized exactly the same as in step 4, but this time, record the dots or histogram bars for your 10 sample means from step 3.
Step 6: What, if anything, is the purpose of this exercise? If you can’t figure it out, write “?” for your answer to step 6, and we will see if the purpose becomes clearer when we combine our data in class.
HW due: Write p. 54 #2.40, p. 67 #2.58, and p. 69 #2.69.
2. Write pp. 85-87 #3.11ab, 3.14ab.
3. Write p. 93 #3.16.
HW due: Read pp. 97-113.
In class: Pop NTQ (notation and terminology quiz). The scores were meh.
No additional written HW is due. Please use this as an opportunity to get caught up on any previous HW assignments and to make flashcards for yourself. If the entire class aces the NTQ today, there will be a special prize. Note: All notation and terminology topics discussed in class, as well as all notation and terminology covered in the first 113 pages of the textbook, are fair game for the NTQ.
Senior retreat. William must report for roll call; all others are excused.
Original questions: Must be legible and fully written out in advance. You will be reading your question directly from your HW paper, and no fumbling for papers is allowed. Scoring is lenient, with full credit granted in almost all cases. Questions must be relevant to our study of statistics and must be legitimate for inclusion on Wednesday’s test; those are the only real criteria.
Copied questions: Must include full page reference and question number, written on your HW paper. No fumbling or last-minute thumbing through the textbook to find candidate questions will be permitted. Scoring is based on the level of challenge achieved, from lowest (recognition/recall) to highest (evaluation).
Evaluation: Student exercises critical judgment between alternatives and exhibits mastery of subject area.
Synthesis: Student assembles smaller components in new and creative ways to answer a question.
Analysis: Student breaks a problem into several smaller parts in order to plan an approach.
Application: Student uses subject knowledge in order to answer a relatively straightforward question.
Cognition: Student demonstrates the ability to state his knowledge in more depth than mere recall.
Recall: Student can “fill in the blank” to recall a fact from the subject of statistics.
Recognition: Student demonstrates some level of awareness of basic terminology or notation.
2. Last week, we were starting to make a list of Control, Randomization of Assignment, and Replication procedures when we were interrupted by the emergency drill. Under “control,” we had already listed blocking (including the use of matched pairs, which is “blocking to the max”), blinding, double blinding, and use of a control group. Come up with 2 or 3 more ways in which control can be enhanced.
1. Write #3.30 on p. 116, and rate each of the subparts on the RRCAASE scale.
2. Write another review question, and see if you can get all the way into the upper end of the scale (A, S, or E).
Test (100 pts.) on all material covered thus far.
HW due: Read pp. 117-124, 127-136.
2. Highlight or circle the “*” footnote at the bottom of p. 156. Throughout our course, we will use the p and convention, not the and p convention.
2. Write #3.56 on p. 138, #3.62 and #3.63 on p. 140, and #4.4 on p. 157.
HW due: Read pp. 159-174.
HW due: Write #4.33 on pp. 175-176. Note: In part (a), be sure to use the word “skewness” in your answer, and support your conclusion with an appropriate visual aid. In part (b), remember what we learned about describing distributions and making comparisons.
This is a short assignment so that you can spend most of the weekend recharging yourself and enjoying the beautiful weather. However, take the assignment seriously and do a good job on it. Don’t simply “pencil-whip” your answers, since you won’t learn much that way.
1. Read pp. 176-183, 186-189.
2. Redo your assignment that was due on Tuesday. This time, do it correctly. (Everyone had at least some room for improvement.) This assignment may be graded for correctness in addition to completion.
No additional written HW due.
No class. However, group leaders are required to submit their proposed project milestones by e-mail over the weekend (deadline: 11:59 p.m. Sunday). Feedback will be provided by e-mail.
1. Turn to page 189 of your textbook. Answer the question: “Which distribution has more variability, the one depicted by Histogram A or the one depicted by Histogram B?” Explain your answer in your own words.
2. Fill in the blank: Statistics computed from repeated sampling (using small samples) have ____ variability than statistics computed from repeated sampling (using large samples) from the same population. Explain your answer in your own words, citing something from your own experience.
3. Write #4.54-4.57 (all 4 problems, all parts) on p. 193.
4. Write #4.64 on p. 194.
HW due: Work on your group project.
New material covered in class (not in textbook): NPP, MSE.
HW due: Draft of group project.
2. Final version of group project (including, at the end of the document, a one-paragraph group leader report that justifies the proposed point split) will be accepted until 3:30 p.m.
1. Prepare two (2) good, short review questions for tomorrow’s Big Quiz. Or, if you make a multi-part question, a single one will suffice. An example of a multi-part review question is shown below.
2. Write pp. 208-210 #5.6, 5.11.
3. Write pp. 218-221 #5.21, 5.22, 5.28, 5.34.
Suppose that the LSRL given by is thought to be good model of the predicted age (in years) at which a young male resident of Slobbenia experiences his first kiss, where x denotes the number of siblings he has. The subjects of the study (n = 9) consisted of 1 only child, 2 who had 1 sibling each, 2 who had 2 siblings each, 2 who had 3 siblings each, 1 who had 4 siblings, and 1 who had 5 siblings. The standard deviation of the ages of the 9 subjects at the time of first kiss was 1.8568 years.
(a) What is the explanatory variable in this study?
(b) What is the response variable in this study?
(c) State the y-intercept and interpret it in the context of this problem.
(d) State the slope and interpret it in the context of this problem.
(e) Compute the correlation coefficient and interpret it in the context of this problem.
(f) Predict the age, to the nearest month, at which a young fellow from Slobbenia will experience his first kiss if he has one brother and one sister. Show formula, plug-ins, and answer.
(g) Does the model apply to extremely large families, such as one Slobbenian family that was reported to have 18 children? Give two reasons for your answer.
Big Quiz (70 points) on all recent material.
No additional HW is due.
“Homework amnesty” is now in effect for the first quarter. You may save any or all of your Q1 assignments if you wish, but they will no longer be scanned. However, you need to keep all Q2 assignments in your 3-ring binder until late January, the start of Q3.
HW due: Read pp. 221-233; write #5.36ab. Note: For part (b), compute the 10 residuals by hand, by using the formula (i.e., true y minus predicted y) in each case. This is the last time you will have to do this by hand. Use the RESID list (created by your calculator when you execute STAT CALC 8) to check your work. When constructing your residual plot (scatterplot), remember to put x on the x-axis and RESID on the y-axis. Also remember to transcribe your residual plot onto your HW paper.
HW due: Read pp. 238-252; write #5.54 on p. 253.
In class: Groups will start generating ideas to propose for the experiment project.
Note: This assignment is due at 12:01 a.m., not at class time, so that you can receive feedback at the start of class. The original deadline of 12:01 a.m. Monday was not permitted under STA rules that homework cannot be required on nights before non-class days. Therefore, the revised deadline is 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday.
so that your e-mail will not be lost. An example is shown below.
Our group would like to see whether students can tell the difference between Safeway generic cola and Coke Classic.
Control: All sips of cola will be administered in a double-blind format, labeled only as “A” and “B.” To avoid contamination of later subjects by subjects who may have been able to discern a difference between A and B, the choice of which cola is A and which is B will be concealed from everyone except Billy, and different subjects will have different assignments of A and B. Billy will have no interaction with the test subjects. The design is matched-pairs, with each subject receiving both A and B colas. Between sips of cola, each subject will be given a sip of water to cleanse the palate. Temperature of A and B will be kept uniform.
Randomization of assignment: Order of administration of A and B will be randomized, as will the assignment of colas to the labels A and B. In other words, for some subjects, “A” will denote Safeway cola and “B” the Coke Classic, but for other subjects it will be the other way around. A coin flip will be used for both randomizations.
HW due: Revise your project proposals. All groups can improve the control aspect of the design. E-mail your revision before the start of class.
HW due: Revise your project proposals as needed, and append your proposed milestones. Project leader or deputy should send e-mail, with similar subject line as before, NLT 1:39 p.m. on Thursday.
You can adjust your milestones later, provided the time remaining to the milestone is greater than or equal to the extension you request. (For example, you can’t wait until 1 day before a milestone to request a 2-day extension, because you obviously must have known more than 1 day before the milestone that you were running late.) Make sure that your milestones are reasonable. You will have some class time for group meetings, but not much: approximately 10 minutes per class day. Feel free to add more milestones if it helps your planning. See example milestones below.
Note: If M4 is delayed by Mr. Hansen’s action, delay will be added to M5 deadline.
HW due: Read pp. 264-267 (middle), chapter summary on pp. 268-269, and 279-286. An open-notes quiz is possible.
HW due: Work on your group project, and write #6.10 (p. 287).
In class: Work on your group project for the first half of the period (approximately). Then, read pp. 288-310.
HW due: Do as much of the conditional probability mini-project as possible. Problems 3 through 6 are required. Hopefully, you already recorded the answers for #2, and #3 is an interesting challenge problem (suggested but not required). You may work with a partner if you wish, but you must document your collaboration on the top of the first sheet, and each person must fill out a separate written answer sheet. Your answers will almost certainly require extra sheets of paper in order to show your work and assumptions.
HW due: Write pp. 310-313 #6.28, 6.30, 6.32, 6.33, 6.34, 6.38, 6.40.
1. Complete your conditional probability mini-project, incorporating the corrections from Tuesday’s class.
2. Read pp. 313-320, 323-332. Reading notes are required, as always.
HW due: Write #6.50, 6.56, 6.57, 6.64, 6.66.
1. Read pp. 335-343, and correct the typo on p. 343 (in the upper table, sequence number 2 should have 4 digits indicated as correct, not 3).
2. Write #6.80a on p. 346. Be sure to state your methodology clearly (how many digits you are choosing at a time from the random digit table, what each outcome represents, what line you are starting at, how to handle repeats, etc.), and use a table to record both your digits and the observed outcomes. Use a clear way of indicating whether or not your driver received a license in the lottery, and perform that process at least 20 times (i.e., at least 20 simulated full lotteries, not merely 20 digit selections). Compute by explicitly showing the division of the number of successes by the number of trials. Note: A “trial” here refers to a full lottery, in which several numbers are drawn and the individual of interest either receives or fails to receive a license. The reader should be able to make sense of your recordkeeping without any additional verbal explanation from you. You are not allowed to be cryptic. You are practicing for a situation in which a grader assigns points to your methodology and execution of a simulation.
3. If a basketball player is a 90% free-throw shooter, and if the trials are independent, you may think that having a run of 3 missed free throws in a row is rare. (After all, if we ask for the probability that the next 3 shots will all be missed, the answer is 0.13, or 0.001.) However, in a random set of 200 free throws, the occurrence of at least one run of 3 misses in a row is not so rare. Design a simulation to estimate the probability that a set of 200 free throws includes at least one run of 3 misses in a row. Important: Remember that the word “trial” has different meanings depending on context. From the player’s point of view, “trial” means one free throw. From the point of view of the simulation, however, a “trial” consists of 200 free throws, and the trial is scored as “success” or “failure” depending on whether at least one run of 3 misses in a row occurs in those 200 simulated free throws.
4. (Optional.) Estimate the probability requested in #3 by executing your simulation methodology. The best tool for doing this is a spreadsheet. Remember that you will need multiple trials, where each trial consists of 200 free throws. To get an accurate estimate, you should use 5,000 or more trials, i.e., at least a million simulated free throws.
1. Read pp. 348-349 (chapter summary, omitting Bayes’ rule), 357-365. Reading notes are required, as always.
2. Write #6.84, 6.88abcd, 6.90, 6.93, 6.94, 6.96.
Note: The normalpdf function is found under the 2nd DISTR menu (2nd function of the VARS key).
(b) Sketch the curve from part (a) on your HW paper.
(c) What name do we give to the curve sketched in part (b)?
(f) On the same set of axes you used in part (d), plot the function Y2 = invNorm(X) and label the two functions so that it is clear which is which.
(g) Is invNorm the inverse of the cumulative normal distribution? How can you tell?
3. The probability that a data value in a normal distribution lies between a z-score of –0.25 and a z-score of 1.2 (i.e., between 0.25 standard deviations below the mean and 1.2 standard deviations above the mean) is given by normalcdf(-.25,1.2,0,1). The 0 and 1 can actually be omitted if you wish.
HW due: Review for test. In order to prepare for the test, you should not reread the entire textbook. Instead, you should work problems, preferably from the ends of the chapters as opposed to the ends of the sections. If you find yourself unable to make headway, that would be a time to reread the text to refresh your memory.
Your test will cover pp. 221-370 in the textbook, plus additional discussion topics from class.
Question: What is expected in order to earn 4 out of 4 points for today’s HW assignment?
Answer: A minimum of 35 minutes of focused time on task, documented by a time log, and a written record of all the review problems that you worked. Odd-numbered problems are recommended, since they have answers in the back of the book. That way, you can adjust your metaknowledge and determine whether you are on track or not.
HW due: Continue reviewing for test and writing out additional review problems of your choice (at least another 35 minutes’ worth). See suggestions and ground rules as stated in the previous calendar entry.
Test (100 points) on pp. 221-370, plus additional classroom discussion topics.
Examples of additional topics would include the NOIR hierarchy of scales (nominal, ordinal, integer, ratio) and the process of making a tree diagram to compute PPV or NPV.
Video presentation on chaos and fractals. If you miss class for any reason, you will be required to view the video on your own time. There is a technical glitch at 51:30, but when you get there, you can work around the glitch by waiting a moment and then pressing the left arrow key or by manually resetting the play point to 51:31. The line that is partially garbled is this: “Math is our one and only strategy for understanding the complexity of nature,” spoken by Dr. Ralph Abraham of the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Classes resume. An open-notes quiz on the fractals video is likely.
In class: Review for midterm exam.
HW due: Begin working problems from the Barron’s review book. It is strongly suggested that you follow the standard time limits (2 minutes and 15 seconds for each multiple-choice problem, 13 minutes for a standard free-response problem, and 25 minutes for a “long” free-response problem). “Long” free-response problems are always #6 in the practice exams.
Important: All responses (even multiple-choice) must be recorded on standard HW sheets, not in the review book itself.
Last-minute Q&A session, MH-102, 8:30-9:55 a.m. (optional).
Midterm Exam (20% of your semester grade) for the three students who have made special arrangements, MH-108, 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon.
Midterm Exam (20% of your semester grade) for everyone else, MH-311, 2:00-4:00 p.m.
HW due: Read §7.4 (pp. 372-383). Reading notes are required, as always.
Snow day. The assignment originally due today has been postponed until Monday. If Monday also turns out to be a snow day, you will need to check this page for additional assignments that will be due when school resumes.
1. Read §7.5 (pp. 386-394). Reading notes are required, as always.
2. Write #7.33, 7.37, 7.41, 7.42. When calculating variance and s.d., you may use your STAT CALC 1 feature as discussed in class. Show all other work clearly, however, including the nitty-gritty of the calculation of the mean. For the AP exam, you are expected to show your work when calculating the mean of a discrete random variable.
3. Continue to monitor www.modd.net for additional assignments.
1. Read §7.6 (pp. 397-412). Reading notes are required, as always.
2. Write #7.47, 7.50, 7.55, 7.60.
HW due: Write #7.64 (rough sketch required for each), 7.66 (rough sketch required for each), 7.70 (rough sketch required for each).
HW due: Read §7.7 and §8.1. If you used your time to advantage on Thursday morning, you may have little or no HW.
1. Write the entire sentence, inserting and underlining the missing words: A sampling distribution is not like a regular distribution of data, since instead of considering the different data values and their relative frequencies (the way we would with a _________ _________ histogram), a sampling distribution considers the values that a _________ could have and the relative frequencies of those _________ .
2. A common wrong answer Mr. Hansen has received to the question “What is a sampling distribution?” is “A distribution of a sample.” Write a short sentence explaining why this is wrong. Is there anything correct in that answer, or is a student who writes it simply clueless?
3. Write #7.104, 7.105, and 7.106abc on p. 431.
4. Write #7.110 and 7.112 on p. 432.
5. Write #7.123 on p. 433.
6. Prepare #8.1, 8.2, and 8.3 on p. 449 for oral presentation. You may make written notes if you prefer.
No class. However, you are expected to read about the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and to be able to discuss the differences between the polling predictions and the actual outcomes.
1. Make sure that you know the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses and how the results compared with what had been predicted.
2. Write #8.7abc on p. 450.
1. Read §8.2 (pp. 450-459).
unless the underlying data distribution has outliers or strong skewness.
In practice, however, few population distributions outside the realm of business and economics are likely to be this badly behaved.
4. Write #8.10, 8.12, and 8.13 on pp. 459-460.
HW due: Read §8.3 (pp. 461-466).
Note: This assignment is due today, regardless of whether or not you are taking a “senior skip day.” Be prepared to show your reading notes in addition to tomorrow’s assignment at the start of class tomorrow.
Also note: Class will start late today, at approximately 8:25.
HW due: Write #8.23, 8.24, 8.28, and 8.30 (pp. 466-467).
Important: Remember to convert all uses of in your textbook to p, and all uses of p to Bare answers are never permitted. For example, your answer to #8.28(c) should begin with the setup (n = 400), then the thing that you are seeking, namely P(0.25 0.35).
1. Read the Chapter 8 summary (pp. 469-470).
2. Read §9.1 (pp. 475-480).
3. Write #8.33, 8.34, 8.36, and 8.37 on p. 470.
1. Read §§9.2 and 9.3 (pp. 482-505). Reading notes are required, as always.
2. On p. 487, underline or circle the italicized text in the middle of the page. This is a critical fact to keep in mind! It is saying that the 95% confidence you have in a confidence interval you compute does not equal the probability that the parameter lies in that interval, but rather the confidence you have in the method. The illustration in Figure 9.4 is what you want to remember. Most of the 95% confidence intervals (that is, 95% in the long run) will include the parameter value, but the probability that any particular interval includes the parameter is unknowable. Remember, probability equals long-run relative frequency, and with a single interval, there is no long run. This is a subtle distinction, and you should read it several times. It may not sink in or convince you even after several readings, but you need to know it regardless.
In-class activity: Start on tomorrow’s HW.
HW due: At the top of the www.modd.net page, click on the “VIDEOS!” link and watch videos #1, 3B, and 4. Total running time is about 67 minutes, which means that you will need to use time both at school and at home. You are responsible for all the information contained in the videos. Note-taking is encouraged.
1. Read §9.4 (pp. 508-513) and the chapter summary (p. 517).
2. On p. 517, modify the formulas and the comments so that they conform to the notation that we and the AP people use. In other words, change all occurrences of p to , and change all occurrences of to p.
3. Next to the formulas for n (bottom formula and fourth from the bottom), add a note that n must always be rounded up to the next higher integer. For example, if the formula gives n = 171.08, your answer would be 172, even though 171 is closer. Note: Mr. Hansen does not recommend using either of these formulas. Instead, it is much more informative to use what you know about m.o.e. to solve a straightforward inequality (assuming that your algebra skills are acceptable, that is). The inequality technique will be demonstrated in class; you are not expected to know it already.
4. Cross out the third formula from the bottom, since we do not use it.
(a) Explain why we never use the third formula from the bottom in practice.
(b) Write #9.54 on p. 518.
(c) Write #9.60 on p. 519.
HW due: Read §10.1 (pp. 525-529) and §10.2 (pp. 531-534). This is a relatively short reading assignment, but the information is super-critical for the remainder of the course. It would probably be a good idea to do the reading twice. Keep good reading notes.
HW due: Read §10.3 (pp. 537-548).
1. Begin studying your STAT TESTS handout that was distributed earlier this week. (If you have lost yours, click the STAT TESTS link under the AP Exam Review section near the bottom of the STAtistics Zone web page.) You eventually will need to know all the assumptions by heart for all the various tests. For now, all you need to memorize are the assumptions for tests 2, 5, 8, and A.
2. As always, remember to change all occurrences of p to and to change all occurrences of to p in problems assigned from the textbook.
3. Write #10.4, #10.6, and #10.11 on pp. 529-530.
4. Write #10.16 on p. 535.
HW due: Continue reading and memorizing your STAT TESTS handout. Be prepared for a possible quiz today on 2, 5, 8, and A. You are also expected to know why we do not use 1, 3, 7, and 9, and you should know the tan boxes on pp. 552-553 by heart.
In class: Quiz on the STAT TESTS handout, covering tests 2, 5, 8, and A. You are also expected to know why we do not use 1, 3, 7, and 9, and you should know the tan boxes on pp. 552-553 by heart.
Note: From now until the AP exam, pop quizzes on the STAT TESTS handout are possible each day. Material covered on the quizzes is cumulative, since eventually you need to know all of the handout contents for the AP exam. As of right now, all you are required to know is 2, 5, 8, and A, plus the reason that we avoid 1, 3, 7, and 9.
HW due: Read §10.4 (pp. 550-558). Reading notes are required, as always.
HW due: Write #10.41 (p. 550) and #10.61 (p. 561). Use full PHA(S)TPC procedures for each, including the S (sketch) step. With practice, you should be able to do problems of this difficulty in 10-13 minutes each.
1. Read this article (or the shorter summary that appeared in today’s Washington Post) and be prepared to discuss it. Reading notes are required, as always.
2. Read §§10.5 and 10.6 (pp. 562-570, 571-574), as well as the chapter summary on pp. 575-576.
3. Mark up the chapter summary (pp. 575-576) so that the notation conforms to our standards and the AP exam’s standards. In other words, change all occurrences of p to and all occurrences of to p.
4. Write a “meaningful paragraph” as described in Activity 10.2 on p. 575. If you do it correctly, this will be the most valuable exercise you do in our class this spring.
1. Set a timer for 13 minutes (19.5 minutes if you have extended time), and write out a complete solution to #4 from the 2005 AP exam. If you run out of time, stop and proceed to step 2.
2. Carefully read the scoring guidelines for #4 only. Use a different color of pen or pencil to mark your work, and determine a score (1, 2, 3, or 4) by following the exact scoring rubric given. Write your score at the top of your first page, and circle the number.
3. Write a short paragraph in which you address yourself by name and politely suggest some improvements to yourself (things to remember, things you could have done more quickly, etc.). Even if you earned a score of 4, you will surely have noticed some things you could improve.
1. Set a timer for 34 minutes (51 minutes if you have extended time), and write out a complete response to #6 from the 2003 Form B exam and #5ab from the 2004 Form B exam. Note that since you are omitting part (c) from the shorter question, the total time is less than the 25 + 13 minutes that you would normally be provided.
2. (Optional, but strongly recommended.) Download the scoring rubric for 2003 Form B and the scoring rubric for 2004 Form B, and compute a score for yourself.
In class: Review, review, review.
Test (100 pts.) on all recent material. Do you have to know how to compute 1-sample confidence intervals? How to conduct 1-sample statistical tests with full PHA(S)TPC procedures? How to write intelligently about Type I and Type II errors and the inherent tradeoffs involved? How to find the mean and standard deviation of any random variable whose distribution is given? How to state and work with the CLT? How to mark up your formula sheet so that it is helpful to you? How to define the word “confidence” as opposed to “probability”? Yes for all of the above.
What about material from previous chapters? Do you still need to know what is meant by independence? Mutually exclusive cases? Blocking? Bias? Outliers? IQR? Standard deviation? Yes again to all. Our course is cumulative, and everything that you learned earlier in the year is still fair game. However, the more recent material will be tested in greater depth and for greater credit.
1. Read §11.1 (pp. 583-597). Reading notes are required, as always. There will be a point deduction if your reading notes include the df formula from p. 586, p. 587, or p. 596.
2. Rephrase the penultimate sentence of the paragraph just below the middle of p. 594, using terminology you learned in the previous chapter. The sentence you are to rephrase begins with the phrase, “If the population variances are equal, . . .” Write your reworded version on your HW paper.
3. Write #11.1 and #11.4 on p. 598.
No additional written HW is due. However, one or two quizzes over recent material are likely. If you have been keeping up and paying attention in class, there is no need to study more than usual.
Your assignment is to read How to Lie with Statistics (a quick, enjoyable read) and to work a little bit each day (20-30 minutes is a good target) on AP review. The time you spend on AP review is like money in the bank—every little bit you do will help boost your knowledge. Be sure to do your AP review correctly, though. Don’t look at the questions while flipping back to the answers and saying, “Yeah, yeah, yeah, that’s pretty close to what I would have said.” You’re wasting your time if you do that. Instead, write down your answers and make an emotional commitment to what you write. Then, check all your answers at the end of each group of questions. When you get something wrong, it stings, and the pain that you feel will help you learn from your mistakes.
You must pretend to take the AP review questions under time pressure (2 minutes and 15 seconds for each multiple-choice question, 13 minutes for each “regular” free-response question, and 25 minutes for each “#6” free-response problem). Write down your answers as if your score really depends on what you write. Otherwise, you’re not pushing yourself hard enough, and you won’t get much learning benefit.
The price of knowledge is the pain of confusion. Experience the pain, and live through it to become a better student going forward. Read the explanations for any problems that you either got wrong or got right only by guessing. No pain, no brain gain.
Be prepared to show some organized written evidence of AP review. The review spreadsheet (in Excel or PDF) is recommended, but any other organized written evidence will also be accepted. If all you have is scribbles in your review book, that’s better than nothing, but you would do much better to keep everything together in a notebook, especially the free-response problems. Remember, 50% of your exam score will be based on free-response problems.
In class: Quiz and/or graded discussion of How to Lie with Statistics. Bring your book to class so that you can return it.
HW due: Continue your AP review. Bring your written evidence for a quick visual inspection. Remember, the discipline of tracking your progress (preferably by topic area) is for your benefit, so that you will do better on the AP exam in May.
1. Write p. 640 #11.86a (PHATPC procedures required).
2. Write p. 641 #11.89 (PHATPC procedures required).
3. Write “yes” or “no” for the second of the three questions posed at the end of #11.88. (The second question is referring to the first question, namely, “Is there any difference between the true proportions of yes responses to these questions?”) We will then have a discussion of all three questions.
HW due: Continue working on AP review (approx.. 20 minutes per night, or more if you can manage). It is strongly recommended that you select a 2-sample t or 2-proportion z problem as part of your review.
6. A group of 24 students from a certain school is recruited to participate in a weight estimation test. Half of them, randomly chosen, are asked to add modeling clay to a small lump until the lump weighs about a pound, all the while being forced to listen to a white noise generator at 70 dB. The other 12 volunteers serve as controls and are allowed to construct their lumps of approximately one pound in silence.
(a) Explain why a one-sample test is not appropriate, even though only one group of 24 students was recruited from the school.
(b) If the table above really did come from a single sample, what additional randomization condition(s) would you want to add in order to make the control treatment of silence be valid? Give a reason for your answer.
(c) If the table above really did come from a single sample, with each row denoting a different subject, which assumption(s) for a standard one-sample hypothesis test would be met, if any, and which assumption(s) would be violated, if any? Give evidence to support your answer.
(d) Conduct a two-sample hypothesis test to see if there is evidence that lumps produced in silence have different weights, on average, from lumps produced in the presence of white noise. Use = 0.05.
(e) Construct parallel (or side-by-side) boxplots to compare the two sets of raw data. What is the most striking difference between the samples?
(f) Formulate (but do not test) a suitable pair of hypotheses to address the observation you made in part (e).
HW due: Three more days of AP review. Target is at least 20 minutes per night, for a total of 60 additional minutes since our last class on Monday. If it is not possible for you to do homework on Monday night because of the Consent Forum, then two days of at least 30 minutes each will suffice.
HW due: Continue your AP review.
In class: 2-way tests for homogeneity of proportions and for independence.
HW due: Continue your AP review, but this time, be sure to do at least one 2-way problem. Hint: Such problems are easily identified, since they are the only problems that contain matrices as part of the setup.
In class: At least one quiz, possibly two. At least one quiz will cover the AP formula sheets. You need to know what the formulas mean, which formulas are important, which ones should be rewritten, and which s.e. formulas on the third page correspond to which calculator features under the STAT TESTS menu. All of this material has been covered previously, but now that the AP exam is approaching, you need to have the information readily available in your mind.
In class: Another quiz or two, with at least one of them similar to what was described for yesterday.
In class: The Must-Pass Quiz begins! We will probably start with a written section to get everyone launched on the first few questions. Those who do well will be offered the opportunity to finish up their final few questions in front of the class. Remember, a passing score is 8 correct out of 10, and you are not allowed to miss any of the starred questions.
HW due: Continue your AP review. Continue to bring your review log to class each day. Be prepared to show at least one example that you have worked of a chi-square G.O.F. problem, a chi-square 2-way problem, and a LSRL t-test problem.
In class: MPQ and at least one other quiz, possibly more than one. Be prepared to do problems equivalent in difficulty to AP-type free-response questions on chi-square G.O.F., chi-square 2-way, and/or LSRL t.
In class: Quiz(zes) on LSRL t procedures are likely. If you were absent when we covered this material, or if you would like additional targeted and personalized review, please be sure to stop by during office hours before today.
In class: MPQ and review of common AP student pitfalls.
In class: MPQ and (quite possibly) another quiz or two.
In class: Visit by Dan Daniels, STA ’46. Mr. Daniels graduated in August 1944 after completing high school in two years plus a summer. His age cohort, however, is the class of 1946.
Field Trip. Depart STA (bus on service road near Martin Gym) shortly after 8:00 a.m. Regular school dress is required. We will be back by 1:00 p.m., in time for lunch and your Block 6 class period.
Those not going on the field trip today should report to MH-102 at the usual time for roll call and a worksheet.
HW due: Continue your AP review. Even if you are taking the AP exam, you need to report to class for roll call and a check of your overall AP review record. After that is complete, you will have the option of leaving to study on your own, or staying until about 12:10 to participate in a group review session.
AP Examination, 12:15 p.m., Trapier Theater. Leave your cell phone at home or in your car; do not bring it anywhere remotely close to the exam room. Bring spare pencils, a spare calculator (if you have one), and spare batteries. Do not bring notes or scratch paper.
Anyone not going on this field trip (including anyone who went on the previous field trip) should report to MH-102 at 8:00 a.m. as usual. Roll will be taken, and you will be given an assignment related to this article.
What is the lesson of Anscombe’s quartet? Write your answer in 4 words.
End of Q4. No additional HW due.

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