Source: https://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/jerome-jerome/?tag=20168dcdesart
Timestamp: 2019-04-22 09:48:13+00:00

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Two partisan representation indexes are built. They are gathering States Partisan pattern effects. For Democrats or Republicans, Jérôme and Jérôme distinguish historical strongholds (partisan stability over 1952-2012) from those which are considered as “new” strongholds (over 1980-2012).
the opposition Nominee Vote share at primaries is included in the concerned States, asserting that the higher his or her score is, the more weakened the incumbent candidate is.
A pooling process combining cross-section and time series data is then used as a forecasting method. That is, Jérôme and Jérôme first run a vote function, combining observations from 50 American states (+DC) over the 1980-2012 election years (N = 459 observations). Then, they use the (OLS) estimated parameters of the vote function to provide a forecast for the popular vote in each state. Finally, they use they state level predictions to generate an electoral vote forecast.
The state-by-state political economy model correctly predicted the two-party result in 2004 (Jérôme & Jérôme-Speziari, 2004), 2008 (Adaken, 2008; Pottier, 2008) and 2012 (Jérôme & Jérôme-Speziari, 2012; 2013).
Adaken, Y. (2008). La simumation des économistes donne Obama gagnant haut la main, www.lexpansion.com, 10 octobre.
Pottier, J.-M. (2008). Barack Obama, Chouchou des prévisionnistes, www.challenges.fr, 31 octobre.
Campbell, J.E. (1992). Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States. American Journal of Political Science, 36(2), 386-407.
Holbrook, T.M. (1991). Presidential Elections in Space and Time. American Journal of Political Science, 35, 91-109.
Jérôme, B. & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2004). Bush l’emporterait sur Kerry. La lettre deL’Expansion n°1730 , 25 octobre: p.2.
Jérôme, B. & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2007). Prévision de la présidentielle 2007 : qui sera aux commandes du pays ?, in Lechypre E. France, l’Equation à 7 inconnues, L’Expansion, janvier, n°715, p.28.
Jérôme B., Lewis-Beck M.S. & Lafay J.D. (1993). Les prévisions des modèles politico-économiques, in Lafay, Cheminement du futur, Le Figaro Economie, (19 mars).
Jérôme, B. & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2016). State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory, PS: Political Science and Politics, 49(4), 680-686.
Jérôme, B. & Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2013). Why the State-by-State Political Economy Model Did It Right, PS: Political Science and Politics, 46(1).
Jérôme B. & Véronique Jérôme-Speziari (2012). Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from a State-by-State Political Economy Model. PS: Political Science and Politics, 45(4): 663–68.
Jérôme, B. & Jérôme-Speziari, V., Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2003). Reordering the French Election Calendar : Forecasting the Consequences for 2002. European Journal of Political Research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Amsterdam , Vol.42, Issue 3 : 425 – 440, May 2003.
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari V. (2004). Forecasting the 2002 Election: Lessons from the Political Economy Model, in M.S. Lewis-Beck (ed.), The French Voter before and after the 2002 Elections., Palgrave.
Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari V. & Lewis-Beck, M.S., (1999), Polls fail in France : Forecasts of the 1997 Legislative Election. International Journal of Forecasting, North Holland Elsevier, 15, 163-174.
Rosenstone, S.J. (1983), Forecasting Presidential Elections, Yale University Press, New Haven an London.

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