CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: en
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: DRAFT COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE COMMUNITY

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
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 ---pagebreak--- COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
                                              COM(88 ) 656 final
                                              Brussels , 16 November 1988
                          COMMUNICATION TO THE COUNCIL
                  " The Greenhouse Effect and the      Community "
           Commission work programme concerning the evaluation of
             policy options to deal with the "greenhouse effect "
                                         and
                                        draft
                                 COUNCIL RESOLUTION
                   on the greenhouse effect and the Community
                          ( presented by the Commission )
    1if pi
        f–^7
        IS3     4? 3rs           §9
 ---pagebreak--- Draft Communication from the Commission to the Council
                "THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
                  AND THE COHNUNITY"
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 2 -
                                     CONTENTS
                                                            Paragraph  Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS                               A~C   4-11
I.     AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
      What the greenhouse effect is in short                    1-2    12 - 13
      Greenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric      3-10    13- 20
      concentration trends
      Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse 11-13    20-27
      gases concentrations
      Potential impacts of climate changes                   14-21    27-32
II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
      Introduction                                               22   32- 33
      The world conference on " The Changing Atmosphere "        23   33- 38
      ( Toronto , 27-30 June 1988 )
      Future possible developments                           24-28    38-40
III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTION
      Introduction                                           29-31    40-41
      Research    activities                                 32-36    42-44
      Préventive action                                      37-42    44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 3 -
                                                           Paragraph  Page
      Planned adaptation                                   43-45     48- 49
      Cooperation with developing countries                   46     49- 50
IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION                         47-58     51-54
ANNEX
The " Villach " Conférence                                     A       56
( Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 )
The EEC Symposium on " CC^ and other greenhouse gases"         B       57
( Brussels , 3-5 November 1986 )
                                                         <
The workshops on " Developing policies for responding          C     58-60 •
to climatic change " ( Villach - Austria , 28 September-
2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy ,
9-13 November 1987 )
The Brundtland Commission's report                             D       61
The European Parliament resolution                             E       61
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 4 -
                             EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
 A.          SUMMARY
 A.1 .      Introduction
            On 19 July 1988 the Commission has decided to create an interservice
            group to elaborate by mid-November 1988 preliminary ideas on
            possible Community action in respect of the " Greenhouse issue ".
            The aim of this document , based on the work of the above mentioned
            group , is to give an overview of such issue and to present
            conclusions and recommendations about further work to be immediately
            started , action to be urgently undertaken and on the possible role
            of the European Community in the international debate on this
            complex subject .
A. 2 .      The greenhouse issue
A. 2.1 .    The present climatic conditions on the earth are governed to a large
           extent by the composition of the atmosphere .
           Water vapour , carbon dioxide ( CC^), methane ( CH^), nitrous oxide
            (N^O ) , ozone ( O^) and, since recently, CFC 's , by absorbing part of
           the infrared radiation which is emitted by the earth to balance the
           incoming solar radiation , store part of the latter in the
           atmosphere .
A. 2 . 2 . Man is modifying at an unprecedented rate the composition of the
           atmosphere . Concentrations of all the so called "greenhouse gases "
           are increasing due to interference of human activities with the
           biogeochemical cycles of such substances . The size of these
           modifications is significant in terms of potential climatic changes .
           We know today that the thermal balance of the earth is being
           modified and that some warming and possible associated climate
           changes wilt follow depending on the size of such modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 5 -
 A. 2 . 3. The most relevant greenhouse gas is COg whose emissions are mostly
            due to fossil fuels burning (5 Gtons of carbon/year *),wood burning
            and decomposition of forest biomass linked to deforestation
            ( 0,5-2 Gtons of carbon /year ).
            C02 is presently responsible for slightly more than 50% of the
            greenhouse effect .  Another 25% of this effect is due to CFCs used
            in a variety of applications such as aerosols , spray cans , air
            conditioning , refrigerators , solvents , packaging , etc . The rest is
            attribuable to methane ( CH^) from livestock, rice paddy fields,
           natural gas exploitation , inefficient burning of biomass and coal ,
           to nitrous oxide ( NgO) coming from fossil fuels combustion and from
           nitrogen fertilizers use and to tropospheric ozone due to
           photochemical processes in the polluted atmosphere . Emissions of
           greenhouse gases have been significantly increasing in the last
           decades .
A. 2 . 4 . Based on the results of global climate models it may be concluded
           that the earth will be committed to an increase of the average
           surface temperature in the range of 1,5-4,5°C by a doubling of the
           pre-industrial equivalent greenhouse gases concentration . At the
           present trends , this is expected to happen before the year 2050 .
A. 2 . 5 . Present climatic models are not capable to offer reliable regional
           assessment of potential climatic modifications corresponding to the
           above mentioned average increase of surface temperature .
           Rough evaluations show that over Europe temperature increase could
           be larger than the world average .
A. 2.6 .   The indirect impacts of such climatic modifications might be
           summarized as follows :
           - a sea level rise ( from 30 cm to 1,5 m for a warming in the range
               1,5-4,5°C );
           - a réduction of sea ice ;
           - a réduction of water resources in some régions ;
           - modifications in agricultural productivity;
           - human health and ecology impacts .
*                 O
   1 Gton = 10      tons = 1.000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                                - 6 -
  A. 3 .        The international framework and perspectives
 A. 3.1 .       A scientific consensus on the basic facts of the greenhouse issue
                referred to in previous paragraphs was reached at the " International
                Conference on the assessment and the role of CO^ and of other
               greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts
                ( Villach , 9-15 October 1985 ).
 A. 3 . 2 .    Conclusions of the Villach Conference were further developed at an
               EEC symposium in Brussels ( 3-5 November 1986) on " CO2 and other
               greenhouse gases : climate and associated impacts " and at workshops
               in Villach ( 28 September-2 October 1987) and in Bellagio ( 9-13
               November 1987 ) on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
               change ".
                                                       (
 A. 3 . 3 .    The greenhouse issue was also considered in the frame of work by the
               Brundtland Commission . Following recommendations of that Commission
               a World Conference on "the changing atmosphere , implications for
               global security" has been held in Toronto ( 27-30 June 1988 ). The
               following actions i.a . were recommended by that conference :
            - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
               Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
              complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
              the year 2000 .
            - Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of CO2 and other trace
              gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
           - Reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
              the year 2005 as an initial global goal in the industrialized
              nations .
           - Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
              related to reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gases .
           - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention .
           - Establish a World Atmosphère Fund .
A. 3 . 4 .    A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
              activities is initiation , already in 1989, of the process for
              preparing an agreement on the greenhouse issue, including eventually
              protocols on limitations of greenhouse gases emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 7 -
 A. 3 . 5 . Next essential events on the way to that agreement will probably
              be :
           - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
              early in 1989;
           - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1990
              by the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
           - the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva, June 1990;
           - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
              which could be the culminating event .
A.4 .        Possible actions
A. 4.1 .     Policies to deal with the greenhouse issue might include preventive
             and / or adaptive actions .
A. 4 . 2 .   Preventive action is that aiming at curbing greenhouse gases
             emissions in order to reduce expected effects .
             In case of C0£, the energy sector in general and forestry in the
             tropical regions are the most relevant areas for intervention .
             Examples of energy measures which could contribute to curb CC^
             emissions are :
             - increase energy efficiency (both on the supply and on the demand
                side );
             - switch to less carbon intensive fuels ;
            - promote renewable energy sources and sustainable use of biomass ;
            - promote safe nuclear energy .
             The promotion of innovative energy technologies to support such
            measures seems to be of particular importance .
             In the long term new non-carbon based energy systems could give a
            significant contribution to curbing CO ^ emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 8 -
             Of course not all the above mentioned measures are equally
             effective .  Moreover , a careful assessment of their economic
             viability is required .
             Forestry policies should tend to reverse present deforestation
             trends especially in the equatorial regions . This would in
             particular require promoting substitutes for wood used massively as
             fuel in those regions and promoting sustainable agricultural
             practices so that agricultural expansion did not involve large scale
             forest burning to clear land .
 A. 4 . 3 .  Possible action to decrease emissions of greenhouse gases such as
             CH^ and ^0 is less easy to identify given the uncertainties
             surrounding emissions of these substances .
             The following subjects could be explored :
            - Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural
 #             gas .
            - Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
            - Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
            - Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
               cultivation and lagoons management, aiming at reducing CH^
               release .
            - Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
               ^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
A. 4 . 4 .  In case of CFC 's, the nearly total elimination of CFC 's emissions
            should be feasible by the year 2000 by constraining production and
            recapturing, recycling or destroying CFC 's in existing products .
A. 4 . 5 .  Adaptation measures ( i.e. thoses required in order to prevent or
            decrease damages due to climatic changes and associated impacts )
            might be required to deal with effects which , despite preventive
            actions, come out to be unavoidable .
            At this stage it is not possible to detail adaptation measures which
            could be required in the Community because of the lack of a reliable
            regional assessment of potential impacts .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 9 -
       In general , adaptation to deal with the sea level rise could include
       sea wall / flood barriers , national flood insurance programmes ,
       construction of reservoirs ( to combat increased salinity),
       abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas, other
       relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites , protection of
      coastal ecosystems .
      More study is needed to identify possible adaptation measures in
      other sectors such as agriculture and forestry .
B.    CONCLUSIONS ON THE STATE OF KNOWLEDGE ON THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
8.1 . The composition of the earth 's atmosphere is being significantly
      modified by human activités .
      Based on results of global climatic models , scientists agree that a
      doubling of the equivalent COg atmospheric concentration will bring
      an increase of the average surface temperature in the range
      1,5-4,5°C .    Such doubling is likely to happen within the first half
      of next century .
      According to climatic data the resulting change in average global
      climatic conditions will be beyond the range of climates that have
      existed during the historical past and during recent geological
      times .
B.2 . The various impacts of such climatic change and their socio-economic
      consequences cannot be reliably assessed in detail at present .
      However the preliminary works made on this subject show that the
      risks are alarmingly high and the likely direct and indirect
      consequences potentially disruptive .
B.3 . Recent international events have introduced a sense of urgency in
      the world-wide debate on the issue . It has come out clearly that
      this is the time to work out viable strategies while accelerating
      research efforts .
 ---pagebreak---                                        10 -
C.       CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
C.O.     The main conclusions of this report are summarized here .  A complete
        presentation is given in Chapter IV of this document .
C.1 .    The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
        protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on
        substances that deplete the ozone layer and it should participate
        actively in the renegotiation of such Protocol .
C.2 .   The Community should welcome initiation of discussions on the
        possibilities of an international agreement for the future
        protection of the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an
        important contribution to the preparation and negotiation of such an
        agreement which might include the establishment of specific targets
        for limiting emissions of greenhose gases as well as definition of
        emission reduction measures and programmes .
C.3 .   Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
        substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the
        feasibility , costs and likely results of possible measures to limit
        greenhouse gases emissions .
        The main areas of such programme should be :
      - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
        capable to reduce greenhouse gases emissions ;
      - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
        implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
        and technologies ;
      - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred irv particular
        to possible strategic targets for CO^ emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                               11
 establishing a decision analysis framework ,
 identifying and evaluating adaptive policies .
The Community and its Member States should by now take into account
in their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors
relevant to the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes
linked to the greenhouse effect .  Early consideration of such issue
could avoid higher costs in future .
Moreover , the Commission will take action to reinforce and expand
efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency
improvement , development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear
technology . The accelerated development and promotion of innovative
commercial-scale technologies in these fields should be given high
priority .
There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both
energy and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties
on some scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
efficiency improvements in terms of CO., reductions .
The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
relevent aspects of the greenhouse issue and should provide new
energy technologies having the potential to limit CO^ emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 12 -
I.  AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
    Uhat the "greenhouse effect " is in short
1.  The climate conditions we experience on earth are due , among other
   things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
   composition . Without the atmosphere, the average surface temperature of
   the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .
    In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
   the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space , is largely governed
   by the composition of the atmosphere .
    Firstly water vapour, mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere, is an
   effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
   radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
   surface temperature of the earth .
   Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide (COg), methane (CH^),
   nitrous oxide (N2O) and chlorof luorocarbons (CFCs) have the property of
   being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
   retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
   infra-red radiation .
   Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
   by the earth . ^
   The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
   coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2. The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
   significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
   mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
   balance of the earth .
   Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
   ultraviolet radiation from the sun .   Moreover ozone contributes to the
   absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
   contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere . Any change
   in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
   thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 13 -
      In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of C02,
      CFCs, CH^, N20, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
      gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
      and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
     depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
     This phenomenon is usually referred to as the " greenhouse effect "
     because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
     incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
     radiation by the ground , warms the air and is then retained by the glass
     from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases ; emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.   The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
     have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4 . In case of carbon dioxide ( CO^) :
     a.   Emission sources :
          Most of anthropogenic C0_ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning ■
          ( around 5 Gtons of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
          contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
          biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
          the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
          of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
          C02 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
          increased in 25 years, since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
          more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
          Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to- emission
          with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each , followed by gas with
          less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
          It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
          been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
*               O
   1 Gton = 10    tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 14 -
  The share of CC^ emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
 parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
  following table :
                  COj emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                             and as % of world total
                                               1950 I         1965         I  1980
  I         Region               | Mt / y*  I     X    I Mt /y*       X I Mt /y* I X    I
  I North America                I 723      I  44,7 I 1003         32,1 1 1380 1 26,7   I
  | URSS and Eastern Europe      I 291      I  18,0 I 750          24,0 1 1251 1 24,2  I
  I China                        I 23      I    1 / 4 I 178         5/ 7 | 439 1 8,5   I
  I Western Europe               I 379      I  23,4 I 643          20/ 6 1 853 1 16,5  I
  | Japan , Australia            I 45      I    2,8 I 137           4/ 4 1 300 1 5,8   I
 ( Developing Countries         I 92       I    5 / 7 I 250         8/ 0 | 631 1 12,2  I
 I Others ( worldwide gas       I 63       I    3 / 9 I 163         5 / 2 | 31 0 1 6,0 I
 Iflaring, bunkers )            !          !                              I      I     I
 I                              I          I                              I      I     I
 | World total                  I 1618     I  100     I 3126 100 I 5 1 70 1 100        I
 I                              I          I                              !      I     I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle"
              US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of                        emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                              - 15 -
 The trends of CO^ world emission from different fossil fuels for the
 period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US OOE / ER-0239
 report referred to above ) :
             5000 Γ                1                 1           .. 1 .   I
             4000 _
             3000 _            f»
         |> 2000 _vr'-             Coi»            X
                                                                        -
        O          ^            1.72%' v*,r. . A.–
          σ»                 . . » * ■–
        o 1000 _ ‘ ‘
         s 800 : J?
        •2 600 - /                                     v^-~r'r*'~
                                                                        :
         M           y<
       U           ^                             •jr
       O
          * 400 f-                      *<• •/
                                              .X
       O           -
              200 I-         X
              100 i___I_I_I_I
                1950           1960               1970            1980
                                              Year
The steep increase of yearly CO2 emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil ,, by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels . Consequently ZO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
    I Fuel               1 1 985 CO2 emissions in |
    I                    Imillion tons carbon /yl
   I gas                 !                  807                1
   I oi l               1                  2189                I
   1 coal               I                  2181               I
   1 gas flaring I                           52               I
   1 Total              I                 5229                I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                            16 -
        Per capita C0£ emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
        are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
          I        Country             | Per capita CO ^ emissions (tons I
         I                             | of carbon per inhabitant )        I
         I     United States           |               4,9                 I
         I     German Dem . Rep .      |               4,9                 I
         I     Canada                  |              4,4                  I
         I     Czechoslovakia         |               4,1                 I
         I     Australia              |               3,9                 I
         I     Soviet Union           |               3,3                 I
        I      Poland                 |               3,0                 I
        I      Belgium                |               3,0                 I
        I      Germany , Fed . Rep . |                2,9                 I
        I      United Kingdom         |               2,5                 I
        I      Netherlands            |               2,5                 I
        I      France                 |               2,0                 I
        I      Japan                 |                1,9                I
       I       Italy                 I                1,5                I
       I       Spain                 I                1,4                I
       I       China                 |                0,5                I
       I       Brazil                |                0,3                I
       I       India                 |                0,1                I
       I       World average         |                1,0                I
      Calculated from : Smith, I.M. ( 1988 ) : CC^ and climate change;
      Draft technical review , EIA Coal Research , London, and UN
      statistical data
  Ь.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
      Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
      CO^ has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
      There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
      was around 275-285 ppm . The rate of concentration increase for CO^
      has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
      year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 17 -
          C(>2 concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
          emissions, mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation, on
          the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans .
          and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
         emissions and this leads to more C02 stored in the atmosphere. .
 5.  In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans, air conditioning, refrigerators, solvents,
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
         to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is .
        by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
        note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
        higher than that of C02, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
        trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than C02 ' on a
        molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
        of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100
        years ).
*
  1 ppb = part per billion = 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 18 -
In case of methane ( CH ,) :
a.    Emission sources :
■ –■ Present man-made emissions of CH^- come mainly from livestock, rice
     paddy fields , natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
     Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH .
                                                                        4
     cycle is not well known .
     Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
     sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
     shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
     Natural Sources ( million tons per year ) :
     Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )
     Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50 )
     Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
     Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
     Oceans                                 10 (+/- 3 )
     Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
     Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
     Man-Made Sources ( million tons per year ) :
     Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc .) 75 (+/- 35 )
     Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30 )
     Biomass burning                        70 (+/- 40 )
     Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
     Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
     ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases " -
                D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 19 -
   b.   Atmospheric concentration trends :
        Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
        0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
        northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983). Average yearly increase
       over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
7. In case of nitrous oxide ( N.,0 ) :
   a.   Emission sources :
       Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
       fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
       seem also to give a significant contribution .
       Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
       Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
       is most difficult .      It is estimated that the overall emissions are
       as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
       brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
       authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
       Oceans and estuaries                     2.0 (+/- 1.0)
       Natural soils                            6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
       Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
       Fossil fuel combustion                   4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
       Biomass burning                          0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
       Fertilized soils                         0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
       Cultivated natural soils                 1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 20 -
      b.   Atmospheric concentration trends :
           ^0 atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
           290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 . The present rate of increase is
          around 0,25% per year .
  8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
      greenhouse gases is due to  the interference of human activities with the
      natural cycles . Yet there  are significant uncertainties concerning the
      quantitative relationships  between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
      observed increase of their  atmospheric concentrations .
  9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
      future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
      those trends .  However scenarios may be developed using different
      assumptions .
10 .  It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
     From this point of view , uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for CC^, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, ^0 and 0^
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 21
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to ...
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83) = 13%,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons = 19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4%, 2000 = 7.1% . Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20/ GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .  However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                            22
The results are summarized in next figure .
       Commitment to Future Warming in the WRI Scenario*
           WRi Scénario»
            [* ) High Emissions
            H Base Case
            |^| Modest Policies
                  Slow Build-Up
                                                                      ilSSlSllIllillfi:
                                                                         „ ,!!. ilii
                                                                    liiiSiBliiiliil
                                                                                              .
                            ^ ! 1‘П-) ”■<5*^^
                                           1~| 2023rr
                                                 I Iп Р^2030 Ir|          '                                            1
                                                          À2
                                                          À 030 А1I     2073
                                             I 3025 I I     2030  I     2073
                                               Ам
                                            □i ÀÉÎIU]
                                               À il R] À  А      À
                                                                 À            A Stow    BuÜd-Up docs
                                                                                   Slow Build-Up
                                                                                   CO| within the
                                                                                   CO,
                                                                                                  doc* not
                                                                                                       not reach
                                                                                              iht forvcatf
                                                                                                           resch double
                                                                                                   forvcut period
        Approximate year of commitment to wanning
        equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above pre¬
        industrial temperature.
        Approximate year of commitment to wanning
        equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above 1960
        temperatures.
Source : Mintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
          WRI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                     2 3-
                                                Energy Policies in the WRl Scenarios
                                                                         Related Energy Model Parameter Value
 Bue Case Scenario
 • "Business-As-Usual," the inertial model of growth and
   change in the world energy industry
 • No policies to slow carbon dioxide omissions
 • Minima! stimulus lo improve end-use efficicncy                       (Rate of change - 0.8% per year)
 • Modcjt stimulus forsynfuels devciopment                              (Final Price - S3.15-S4.25 per CJ in 2005)
 • Minimal stimulus /or development of solar energy                     (Final Price • $16.50 per CJ in 2025)
   systems
• No policy to limit tropical deforestation or to encourage
   reforestation
* Minimal environmenta! costs includcd in priée of energy               ($0.30 per Cj for coal; $1.00 per CJ for synfuels)
High Emissions Scénario
* Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
• No policies to slow carbón dioxide emissions
• No stimulus to improvc end-use efficicncy                             (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coat                             (Rale of improvement - 0.75% per year)
• Strong stimulus for syn/ucls development                              (Final Price - S2.75-S3.50 per CJ in 1995)
• No stimulus for deveiopment of solar energy systems                   (Final Price - $20 per CJ in 2040)
• Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
   agriculture
• Token environmental costs included in price of energy                 ($0.15 per CJ for coal; $0.50 per CJ for synfuels)
Modest Policies Scenario
• Strong stimulus for improved end-use efficiency                       (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
• Modest stimulus for solar energy                                      (Final price - $15.00 per CJ in 2025 )
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
   protection; more intensive rather than extensive
   agriculture encouraged
• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                     (S0.60 per GJ for coal; $1 .50 per CJ for synfuels)
   prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
   fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scenario
• Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency                 (Rate of improvement - 1.5% per year)
• Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged                         (Final Price - $12.00 per CJ in 2000)
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
   protection
• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                  ($1.20 per CJ for coal; $3.00 per CJ for synfuels)
   discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                   Total Emissions of C02 in tht WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)
               ”1
               .. |         WRI  ScuuHot
                            WRl SeuuHot                                                /
                                                                                        /
                         ■ High Emissions                                           /
               a -^      ABMCJK
                         ▲ Base Case                                            /
               2$ J      if Modest
                         if Modest Policies
                                     Policies                                S'
                          • Slow Build-up                                 /
         s                                                          y*
         i     “■
        I
        <3                                         /
                                                     X
         2
         0
         1     ».
               12 -
                0 Н-1-1-1-1-1
                  1*73              2000             2023             2030               2073
 ---pagebreak---                                                 24 -
 By a different approach . Or . R.A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
 of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
 link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
 probabilities to the possible outcome .
 The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                            RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE
                                     TEMPERATUHE CHANGE [FROM 1985 IN°C)
        (B)
        (B ) CLIMATE
             CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
                     SENSITIVITY        EQU,UBRXIM <™ANS.ENT) (C)               CL1MAT|C CHANGE
                                                                           (C ) CLIMATIC     CHANGE
                 - - - d - -3->_
                 -
        I                                      8.0 - •
       I                                             ._(2.5jj._1 ) _ П_Г"■_ ?
                                               6.0 + ‘
                                               4.0T                                               S
                                                 n le                        _ U_r .00 a
                                            .  30 T                       _ r _-               i <
                                                                    BEST GUESS       :   .45      ,
                                                 sT1°
                                                     * <1 ITT
                                                           -0 -RT
                                                                1. 1-
                                                                    )       t_
                                                                             -
      i                   III                                                       v ■
      r+z-rh-rrtn-                                      .1       : J. : •"~l~     » J > . J–
         800      700      800 |!
                           CÔO       500        χ/ \1θθ51095 20052005 2015
                                                                         2015 2025
                                                                                2025 2035
                                                                                       2035 2045
                                                                                             2045
     I! EQUIVALENT CO.CONC
                   COJCONC (ppmv)     Jj ■             \                             1       YEAR
                                                                                             YEAR
      I                  1     +         //fl ■‘l99' N.                              1
      I               *  I       I    1
                                                     2006                            i
                                                  + 2015
                                                     2026
                                                     2035
                           АА
                            A                       YEAR
                                                    YEAR                                            >
    (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
  emissions
    T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
  increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CC^ concentration
- " transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
  due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
  been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 25 -
        The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
        above mentioned evaluation :
           Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which
         we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
         outside this range is less than 1% .
      - The "best-guess " range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
         probability of warming within this range is 45% .
      - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .    This median value - the
         best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 . The presently available climate models predict ( with various degrees of
     uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts ^* :
     - Global-Mean Surface Warming ( very probable ). For a doubling of
       atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
       the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
       expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C . The most significant
       uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course, the actual
       rate of  warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
       rate of  greenhouse gases, natural fluctuations in the climate system,
       and the  detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
       climate  system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
     - Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).    Increased heating
       of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
       greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
       average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
       decreases in rainfall .
     - Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).    As the sea ice boundary
       is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
       surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
       water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
       surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1)
     Source : NRC ( 1987); Current Issues in Climate Change, National Research
               Council , Washington DC, USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 26 -
      - Summer Continental Dryness /Warming ( likely in the long term ). Several
         studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
         over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
         This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
         and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-tp-summer
         reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
         equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
         climate .
      - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ). As the climate
        warms , the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
      To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
      mentioning also a :
      - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ). Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere . The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that " the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects ( processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO, 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 27 -
      As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "Ct^ and other
      greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
      Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
                                                                              I
          - Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain , it is now
            believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
            produce a significant change during the 21st century .
          - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
            50 years .
         - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
            temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
            by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 .  Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on " C0£ and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        "The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,,
         global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years , while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C , sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     . heating and therefore expanding the ocean water;
     . melting of mountain glaciers ;
     . melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica;
     . a possible (but unlikely) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 28 -
      A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
      avai labié .
      The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
      seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference , June
      1988 ).
      A significant rise in sea level would :
      . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
      . accelerate coastal erosion ;
      . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
      . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 .  Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .   This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Water Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase, some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes . As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption;
     . power génération;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the COg atmospheric
     concentration would   stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate   and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and   vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially   since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 29 -
  into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
 and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
 modifications .
 The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
 altering :
 . total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
    regional level ;
 . length of growing season;
 . number of extreme temperature events .
 There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
 change .
- The " Slow change " view : emphasises the significance of gradual
   increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual,
    long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
   agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
   unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
   from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
   flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
                    ( 2)
summarised below         :
"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
    plant growth rates ;
      Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
      Variations on Agriculture , Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
      and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands .
 ---pagebreak---                                      30 -
  - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
  - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality;
  - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
 soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature , the magnitude and
 location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
   levels are high latitude, semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
   areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
   USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen ^ et al, show
   reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats,
   due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs , changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 31
      In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
      give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
      effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
      about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
      detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
      systems in various regions of the world .
      Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
      both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
      effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
      socio-economic impacts .
19 .  Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of CO^ on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
         . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
           forest ecosystems ;
         . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
        . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
        . disturbance of timber - and woodproducts markets and trade ;
        . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
           ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
           reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health .   It could in particular :
        . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
           temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
        . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme
           events );
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 32 -
        Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
        tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
        face health problems .
 21 .   Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
        The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
          . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
          . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
          . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,
            resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;
          . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
            reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
            could migrate ).
        The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
        thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
        Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
       coupled, both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
       capable of being modified by climate .
       However, it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
       fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
       overf i shing .
  II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
  Introduction
22 . Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
       équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
       déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
       Chamberlin , 1899 ).
       Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du CO^ par un
       réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 33 -
       Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
       milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
       tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
       Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
       l' objet de l' attention des responsables_politiques .__ _ _
       Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
      des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
      effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
      globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
      de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
      donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
      concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
      As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
     evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
      . the "Villach" conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985);
      . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract CO^
         rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
     . The EEC Symposium on "COg and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
         3-5 November 1986 );
     . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding' to climatic
        change " (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
        Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987);
     . The Brundtland Commission 's report
     . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June
        1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
    Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere , implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988
                            )
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 34 -
23 .  This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
      Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
      recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
      More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
      Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
      organizations participated in the sessions .
      Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
     "- Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended, globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
          inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
       - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise, which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     "A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                             - 35 -
Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of C02 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of C02 is an imperative
goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce C02 emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
Reduce C02 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly, the
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements .  About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
modifications in supplies .
Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally,
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency, a
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
(i ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels, (ii ) reviewing
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 36 -
     proliferation . If these problems can be solved , through improved
     engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
     could have a role to play in lowering COg emissions .
  - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and
    approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made
    through reduction of fossil fuel combustion , to reduce ( i ) emissions
    of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
    environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
    tropospheric ozone; ( iii ) other non-Ct^ greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
    the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
    use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations ,
    Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
    framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
    convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
    international exchange of information and support of research and
    monitoring, and should provide a framework for specific protocols
    for addressing particular issues , taking into account existing
    international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
    International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
    in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
    Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 37 -
 - Establish a World Atmosphere Fund, financed in part by a levy on
    fossil fuel consumption of industrialized countries , to mobilize a
    substantial part of the resources needed for implementation of the
    Action Plan for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
 - Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
    to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
    government -to -government discussion of responses and strategies .
 - Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
   within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
   Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
    It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
   regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
    Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
   oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
- Increase significantly the funding for research, development and
   transfer of information on renewable energy, if necessary by the
   establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
   technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
   developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
   the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
   agreements .
- Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
   cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
- Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
   proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
   Development"s ( WCED ) report , "Our Common Future", including the
   establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
   enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
   sustainably .
- Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
   developing nations to participate in international mitigation
   efforts , monitoring, research and analysis related to the changing
   atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
          and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
          Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" ( to be published in
          the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
          conferences mentioned under paragraph 26 , and other future meetings
          dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
          establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
          changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         environment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developaents
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation, already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 39 -
      “ the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June 1990;
     “ the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist in :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b ) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 . Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
     ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
        "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
         other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
          This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
          impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
         extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
          international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 40 -
             The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
             ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
             of the difference in regional impact should not , however, be allowed
             to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
             Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
             regions into "winners " or " losers ". This is not a "zero-sum" game .
             Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
             uncertain proportions ."
  III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
  Introduction
29 .    Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
        international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
       the greenhouse issue .
       Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview , could
       include :
            - research ;
            - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
               emissions );
            - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
               to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
               preventive measures ).
30 .   Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
       ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
             international agreement (e.g. reduction of CO^ emissions);
       (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
             water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
             countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
             tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
             policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 41
      ( c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
            to be adopted , taking account of ( a ) and of particular European
            conditions ).
     The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
            increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
            ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
            will happen , when, where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
            uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
            Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
            could consider .
     ( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to' know
            - which danger, when and where, one has to face and what
              consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
              large are to be expected;
            - how to implement at best the measures decided;
     Therefore, the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two.
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 42 -
 Research activities
32 .  Already since 1980 , the Commission of the European Communities is
      carrying out a research programme in Climatology, whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
      resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations, the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops , forests , water
           resources (bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased CO ^ and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 43 -
       ( 4 ) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
             upon agriculture and industry ( the impacts of the alternance of
             droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources / the impacts
             of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
             agriculture and industry ).
      ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
      ( 6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
             probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
             affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
      ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community,
             due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
             consequences for agriculture , consequences for cost line regions of
             the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
34 . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as CO^ is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies , rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---  35 . Elimination of CC^ at the source could eventually become a new domain of
        resarch .    No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
        avai lable .
        New directions for research in this field should be explored .
 36 . Moreover, the management of the CO^ problem implies both the definition
       of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
       objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
       how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
       reduction . The implementation action will have to determine the
       economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction , the
       allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
       institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
       System Analysis can, in principle , provide the adequate basis for
       looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
       possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals;
       Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
       environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
       Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
       systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
       The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
      should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
      energy related CC^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
      The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
      costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
      on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37 .  Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
      in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
      This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
      concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
      greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
      objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 45 -
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including, in case of CO^
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39 . Carbon dioxide ( Ct^) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , CO^ emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at COg emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO^                    i
        There are several types of technical energy related measures that
        could curb CC^ emissions , as listed below.
        Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
        physical potential of COg emission reduction of a given measure and
        its economic viability .
        The following technical measures , which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce CO^ emissions from
        carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs, better insulation, more efficient cars , electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 46 -
      - improving the efficiency of energy supply ( e.g. cogeneration ,
         introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
         high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);
 b . Energy Supply
      - fuel switching to less CO^ emitting fuels ( the relation of CC^
        emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
        the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
         follows : 121 , 100 , 88 , 58 );
     - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
        windpower , hydro , geothermal , photovoltaics );
     - increased use of nuclear power .
 c . Biotic sources
     - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
        cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
        the CC^ atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
     - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
        technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
        be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
     - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
        forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
        carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing CO^ emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand , any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 47 -
    System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
   exploring consequences of economic -energy-environmental related
   measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
    information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CC^ reduction
   goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
   technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
   objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
   a . Conserve forest resources
        - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
          developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
          cause further deforestation ;
        - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
          forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
          sustainable basis ;
        - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest ^ires;
        - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
        - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
          utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
      . - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
          tropical regions ;
        - promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,
   c . Natural ecosystem protection
        - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
          relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 48 -
 40 .   CFCs emissions
       Possible preventative actions are :
       a . Constrain use
       b . Constrain production
       c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
            *
41 . CH^, N^O emissions
       Actions which could be considered are :
       a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
       b . Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
       c . Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
       d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
            cultivation and lagoons management, aiming at reducing CH^ release.
       e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
            ^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 .  The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
      greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
      feasible, could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
      measures .
  Planned adaptation
43 .  Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
      impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
      levels .
      Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
      if it is believed that :
      - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
          to in the short term ;
      - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
          effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
          now , it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
          atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 49 -
        At this stage it is not possible to cover, even in qualitative and
        simple way, all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
        in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
        However , it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
       measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
 44 .  Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
       - Sea walls / flood barriers .
       - National flood insurance programmes .
       - Construction of reservoirs ( to combat increased salinity ).
       - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
       ~ Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
       - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 .   Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
       impacts on agriculture are :
      - More efficient use of fertilisers .
      - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production;
      - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
      - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
          control , water management , etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
46 .  All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
      planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
      needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
      aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
      the greenhouse effect . In particular :
      a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
           prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
           deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
           genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                    50 -
b) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                           51
  IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 .    The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
       protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
       that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
       application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision ,
       Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 .   The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
       renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
       deplete the ozone layer .   The Protocol should be revised so that the
       CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
       recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .   The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
       possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
       the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
       to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
       include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
       greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
       programmes .
50 .   Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
       substantial policy~options study programme to evaluate the feasibility,
       costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
       emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
       international debate on the issue .
       The main areas of such programme should be :
         - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
            in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
         - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
            implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
         - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for CO^ emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 52 -
           A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
           this frame .
           The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
         - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
           probabi listical ly policy options and their likely results an
           benefits .
        - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
           unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
           decision analysis exercise .
      The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
      energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
      policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
      exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
      The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
      research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
      climatology and energy .
      Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem, the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy ,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                                                                k
                                     - 53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority . .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of CO^ reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit COg emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     environment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
         which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as,
         for instance, islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
         precariously low, coastal states, etc . Such maping would form a
         reference basis against which policies could be evaluated . It would
         certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
         developing countries .
       – The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
         account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
         for instance, dams , agricultural projects which involve major
         modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
         in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                         54 -
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
          increased , in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak--- Recent aajor events on the greenhouse issue ---pagebreak---                                      - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of C0-, and of other greenhouse gases in climate variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria , 9-15 October 1985 ))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP , WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      " Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
        long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
        as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
        structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
        planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
       without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
        longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
       greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
       global climate in the next century ."
      "While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
       actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
       affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
       fossil fuels, and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
       little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
       magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
       atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
       ecosystems , agriculture, water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 57 -
       "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
         into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
         policies on social and economic development , environmental
         programmes , and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
       " Public information efforts should be increased by international
         agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
         change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
        this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
       "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
        regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
        are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless , the understanding of the
        greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
        policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
        effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
        should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC, DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 . It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric COg and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue, mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
          dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
          intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
          closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                          58 -
         - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
             necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
             makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   (Villach - Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to " start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
       after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
       of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
       emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
       greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
       Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
       energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
       efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing CO^
       emissions . Research and development on alternative ( non-fossil )
       energy systems must be greatly intensified .
       ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
       Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation ,
       e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
       Forest Action Plan , 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
       because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture ,
 ---pagebreak---                                - 59 -
 energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
 deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
 additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
 ( 4 ) Other Trace Gases
 Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; NgO
 reduction strategies ; agricultural practices , etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
 ( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases ( expressed in terms of C02 equivalence ) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these, regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                               - 60 -
 ( 7 ) Monitoring
 The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
 considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
 changes, atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
 consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
 It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / GEMS ( Unite Nations
 Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
    monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
    changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU, UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 61 -
D. The Brundtland Commission's report
   The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
   the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
   body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
   the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
   promoting a sustainable development .
   Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
   Session in the fall of 1987 .
    This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
    international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
    It is suggested to consider :
       improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
     - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,
       mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
     - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
       of the causative gases ; and
     - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
       climate changes and rising sea level ."
     The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
     international convention on "management policies for all
     environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E. The European Parliament resolution
   The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
   resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of C02 in
   the atmosphere :
   " The European Parliament
     - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
       research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
       of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
       B2-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up , which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and , in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of ' the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution, provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since, contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;
2.  Calls upon the Commission, in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 63 -
  3 . Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
        from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
       in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
       purification respectively;
  4.   Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation , for which the
       Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
  5.   Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
       put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
       countries ;
  6.   Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
       research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
       especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
       ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
  7.   Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
      essential requirement for climatic stability;
  8.  Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
      the Northern hemisphere , which are largely responsible for
      jeopardizing climate, to ensure that the developing nations are
      given access to the latest technological know-how ;
 9.   Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
      quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
      directly responsible - about the implications of the human
      activities in question , while explaining the need for effective
      measures ;
10 .  Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
      climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
      a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 .  Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
      its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---                        Commission 's work programme on
                the analysis of policy options to deal with
               risks associated with the "greenhouse: issue "
I. CONTENT OF THE PROGRAMME
   This programme should provide the elements useful to establish the
   possible role of the Community and of its Member States in defining and
   promoting within the appropriate international fora the measures needed
   to deal with risks associated with the greenhouse effect .
   To this end this work programme will deal with the following subjects :
   A.  Identification of Policy options to prevent / reduce Emissions of
       Greenhouse Gases .
       The measures needed to achieve strategic target 'reductions in
       emissions of different greenhouse gases will be identified .
       For each greenhouse gas , this will involve a detailed assessment of
       the options available for emissions reductions, the level of
       emission reduction associated with each option , and the package of
       measures needed to achieve strategic target reductions . The
       potential for emissions prevention / reduction will be considered for
       the following sectors :
       - energy production ;
       - energy consumption ( including transportation );
       - industrial productions ;
       - use of products ;
       - agricultural activities .
       An appropriate approach will be needed to take into account the
       different specific situation of countries or groups of countries .
       In particular it will need to consider the following :
 ---pagebreak---                                 - 2 -
    - State of économie development ;
    - current energy policies ;
    - geography .
G.  Implications of Options for Emission Reductions .
    The emission reduction options will be examined to assess the
    following :
    - technical and industrial implications ;
    - financial and économie implications ;
    - political , institutional and social implications .
C.  Development of a Decision Analysis Framework .
    A framework will be developed in order to structure the available
    information on all aspects of the greenhouse issue , in such a way
   as to allow identification of likely benefits ( in terms of
    reduction of risks of climate modifications , etc .) corresponding to
   different policy options . The framework will take account of ;
   - emissions and emission reductions ;
   - the implications of these réductions ;
   - available scientific data on the potential benefits of
      alternative emission controls .
   The framework will be designed to take account of uncertainty about
   emissions , effectiveness of controls , climate change and effects
   and will allow for the identification of the most likely outcomes
   resulting from different actions .
   The framework will also allow the implications of delaying action
   to be examined . By structuring the problem and identifying key
   areas of uncertainty to which outcomes are most sensitive , the
   framework will provide an important tool for evaluating actions and
   for focussing future research on key decision questions .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 3 -
     0.  Evaluation of likely benefits of different policy options by use of
         a decision analysis framework and establishment of the climatic and
         impact scenarios resulting from implementation of emission control
         options .
         The framework will be used to determine the possible outcomes of
         the alternative emission reduction options and their timing
          ( scenarios ).  It will also indicate the relative likelihood of the
         benefits that would be achieved .
     E.  Identification and evaluation of adaptive measures needed under the
         different scenarios worked out under D. above
         Even with the implementation of emission control policies there
         will still be residual risks associated with past emissions and the
         remaining future emissions to the atmosphere . Adaptive measures
         ( i.e. actions to protect people , property, agriculture and economic
         and natural resources ) will therefore need to be identified to cope
         with these risks .    The magnitude and location of key residual risks
         wilt be identified and the cost and time implications of taking
         different adaptive measures will be evaluated . Adaptive measures .
         will need to be prioritised to insure maximum residual risk
         reduction with resources available , and that focus is placed on key
         areas of concern .
II . DETAILED LIST OF ACTIVITIES
     The execution of this programme will require i.a . the following
     activities :
     A.  Emissions analysis and émission réduction options .
         i      Prepare emission trend analysis for each Greenhouse gas .
                These emissions should be analysed by ( a ) region ( b ) by
                political , strategic and economic groupings .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 4 -
    ii     Determine factors ( other than implementation of control )
           likely to influence future emissions .     Assess their likelihood
           and develop alternative emissions scenarios .
    iii    Identify the available emission control options for each
           Greenhouse gas . Assess under the different emission scenarios
           the extent of the potential reductions .
B. Assessment of Emission Control Options Implications
   i       Determine the practicality , cost and implementation timing of
          each of the emission reduction measures .
   ii      Assess the social and economic effects .
   iii    Assess the distributional effects ( a ) within individual
          countries , ( b) between countries , ( c ) between political and
          strategic groupings .
C. Establish a framework to integrate information developed during the
   work programme
   The framework should be designed to :
   - show the implications of alternative actions , including the costs
       and potential benefits ;
   - indicate the implications of taking action at different times ;
   - indicate the robustness of possible decisions ( on control
       strategies or adaptive strategies ) taking account of the
       uncertainties in the predictions and in the available scientific
       data );
   - provide a focus on the further research required to support the
       decisions that need to be taken .
 ---pagebreak---   An Assessment of Emission Control Strategies
  i     Determine the likely benefits that would be achieved through
       the Emission Control Strategies . This work will require a
       critical review of mechanisms linking Greenhouse gas
       concentrations to global warming with particular reference to
       feed back systems , timing and implications for regional
       climates .
 ii    Based on the critical review , prepare an assessment of the
       likelihood of the alternative predictions and their
       implications . This work should integrate the views of the
       principal experts and if practical probabilities will be
       assigned to reflect the uncertainty of different outcomes .
 iii   Drawing on this information , and on information developed on
       emission reductions ( A ) and their implications ( B ), the
      decision framework developed under C will be used to assess
      the costs , benefits and other implications of alternative
      emission control options .
Assessment of Adaptive Measures
i     Review the implications of different levels of warming
      particularly on European infrastructure and food supply;
      identify other key implications . Assess the effects on other
      political and economic groupings of countries .
ii    Undertake a review of options that might be implemented to
      respond to the potential changes Ci ) (eg new crop varieties ,
      changing planning practices , etc .).
iii   Based on the assessment undertaken in ( D ) and using the
      framework developed in ( C ), assess the costs and benefits of
      alternative adaptive measures ; assess the likelihood that such
      adaptive measures would prove effective taking account of the
      predicted effects .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 6 -
III .  GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PROGRAMME
       A.   In executing this programme the Commission will take full account
           of the other relevant activities both inside the Community and
           worldwide , such as :
           - the EC research programme on climatology and natural hazards ;
           - the EC joint research center programmes on energy conservation ,
              solar energy and thermal conversion , nuclear safety , etc .;
           - the outcome of recent international conferences ( such as the
              conference on the Changing Atmosphere , Toronto , June 88 );
           - The UNEP / WMO working party on climatic change ;
           etc .
           To this end the Commission will establish appropriate cooperation
           with the relevant organizations involved in such activities .
      8.   Assisted by the Committee referred to in Article 1 of the Decision ,
           the Commission will define the procedures and the concrete steps
           for this working programme , as well as the information to be
           provided by Member States .
           Competent organizations and government departments in Member States
          will be associated with the work through the above mentioned
          Committee .
IV .  FINANCING OF THE PROGRAMME
      The funds estimated as necessary for the implementation of the
      programme amount to 6 million ECU .
 ---pagebreak---                                       Draft
         Council resolution on the greenhouse issue and the Community
 The Council of the European Communities ,
Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community,
Having regard to the draft resolution from the Commission ,
whereas the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community , as amended
by the Single European Act provides for the development and implementation
of a Community policy on the environment and the same Treaty also provides
that in preparing its action in this field, the Community will take account
of the available scientific and technical data and of the potential
benefits and costs of action or of lack of action ;
whereas this resolution is guided by the considerations set out in the
resolution of 19 October 1987 concerning an action programme of the
                                            (1 )
European Communities on the environment          i.e. the desirability of action
at the appropriate level and the need to coordinate work at international
level , to assess the benefits and costs of the actions envisaged and to
make adequate technical and political preparation for such action;
whereas the available scientific data , in particular results from Community
Environmental Research Programmes , show that the composition of the
atmosphere is being significantly modified by human activities and
according to the available climatic models this could finally bring, by a
so called " greenhouse effect ", climatic modifications involving important
impacts on the environment , on human beings and their activities ;
whereas , given the nature and the size of risks involved in the greenhouse
issue , it is urgent to examine possibilities for action aiming at
preventing or reducing those risks ;
(1)
     OJ n° C 328 of 7.12.1987, p.1 .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 2 -
  whereas in the frame of recent international conferences , a very broad
  consensus has been reached on the need of urgently considering measures to
  reduce greenhouse gases emissions :
 whereas , given the complexity of the greenhouse effect issue and the many
 and far reaching implications both of this effect and of measures which
 could be considered to prevent or to mitigate its consequences , a careful
 prior examination of possible policy options is required which should be
 made by appropriate methodologies taking in particular into account
 adequately the uncertainties still outstanding on several aspects of the
 issue ;
 whereas it is of the utmost importance that the Community and its Member
 States are in a position to give a fundamental contribution to the
 reflexion on and elaboration of policy decisions to be eventually taken
 within the appropriate international fora in order to act in the most
 effective manner against the risks of climatic modifications .
 Welcomes the communication from the Commission on " the greenhouse issue and
 the Community" and approves its main conclusions and recommendations ;
 Declares that the Community should devote increasing attention to the risks
of potential climatic changes involved in the greenhouse issue and should
contribute substantially to promote reflexion and discussion on possible
measures to counter those risks ;
Welcomes the initiative of the Commission to launch a work programme
concerning the evaluation of policy options to deal with risks associated
with the greenhouse issue and approves the objectives of such programme ;
Invites Member States to cooperate actively with the Commission in the
execution of the above mentioned work programme and to coordinate their
relevant activities on the greenhouse issue within that framework ;
Invites the Commission to present to the Council and to the European
Parliament a progress report by mid of 1990 and a final report on the
results obtained by that work programme and on the conclusions drawn by
end 1991 .