CELEX: 51988PC0386
Language: en
Date: 1988-07-27
Title: Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION concerning a Community programmme in the field of strategic analysis, forecasting and evaluation in matters of research and technology (1988-1992) MONITOR (presented by the Commission)

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COM (88) 386
Vol. 1988/0140
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 ---pagebreak--- COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
                                            COM(88 ) 386 final - SYN 147
                                            Brussels , 27 July 1988
                          Proposai for a
                         COUNCIL DECISION
       concerning a Community programmme in the field of
        strategic analysis , forecasting and evaluation
             in matters of research and technology
                            ( 1988-1992 )
                          MONITOR
                 ( presented by the Commission )
                                       I ..
                                    /:
 ---pagebreak---                                                                  - j?F«r
                     TABLE       OF    CONTENTS
                                                                        Page
Preamble .                                                                i
Explanatory Mémorandum .                                                  ii
Annex 1 : Summary of the main points ( analyses and proposals )
            contained in the reports and opinions relating to
            proposal C0M(87)502 and main conclusions drawn
            by the Commission .                                           vi
Proposal for a Council Decision .                                         1
Annex : Community programme in the field of strategic analysis ,          5
         forecasting and evaluation in matters of research
         and technology .
Financial Annex .                                                         9
                                    *******
 ---pagebreak---                                    - i -
PREAMBLE
The Commission proposes a research programme in strategic analysis ,
forecasting and evaluation of research and technology .
The programme covers THREE      FIELDS OF     ACTION  closely   connected  and
complementary in function :
  °     Strategic and    impact   analyse ^   relating to     scientific and
       technological developments ( SAST )
  °    FAST (*) forecasting
  °    Research   and  studies   aimed     at  improving   methodologies   and
       effectiveness of the evaluation of R and D actions ( SPEAR) (*).
The current proposal also modifies and replaces the proposal C0M(87)502 .
It is presented by virtue of Article 149 § 3 of the EEC Treaty .
It takes into account the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee on
the above proposal , the opinion and amendments approved by the European
Parliament as well as the discussions and recommendations provoked by the
proposal within the Community
The actions of scientific and technical monitoring originally foreseen by
C0M(87)502 will be developed in the different services of the Commission
and particularly the Joint Research Centre where they will benefit from a
proper   environment of scientific and technical support .
Given the importance of the proposed modifications ,           the Commission
invites the Council to request , a new opinion on first reading from the
Parliament .
    SAST : Strategic Analyses in the field of Science and Technology
    FAST : Forecasting and Assessment in Science and Technology
    SPEAR : Support Programme for the Evaluation     Activities   in the field of Research .
1
  Annexe 1 summarises the main points arising from these opinions and
  discussions and the conclusions drawn by the Commission .
 ---pagebreak--- EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
Reinforcing the international economic competitiveness of the European
countries is a condition and a consequence of the progress in European
construction .        Such compet i t i veness ciepends on congruence between
socio-economic structures and the new technical system which will be at
the heart of the third industrial revolution .
To achieve the economic , social , quality of life and cohesion objectives
of the Single European Act , it is vital that the " Framework Programme of
Community research and technological development " takes into account the
economic , social and cultural dimensions of European construction .
1 . The " Framework Programme " and tools to serve priority definition .
The Single European Act gives an altogether new significance to the
Community policy on Science and Technology ( S&T ).              The " Framework
Programme " sets its content , its priorities and the means devoted to
research .     The Framework Programme is in its turn implemented through
specific programmes .
Although modest compared with the research efforts of the Member States ,
the actions of the Framework Programme have important multiplier effects
by virtue of their European specificity and their complementarity to
national actions .      Thus it is essential to ensure this specificity and
complementarity through careful , firmly based selection of priority lines
of action .     Likewise it is necessary to measure the impact of Community
activities in order to guide future action .
In fact , it is necessary to provide different bodies responsible for
preparation of the Framework Programme with information and analyses
relevant to    the choices to be nade .
In this context ,      it is necessary to understand the scientific and
technical environment , its evolution , the strengths and weaknesses of
Europe compared with its competitiors ,           the impact of science and
technology in industrial , social and economic development and thereby
improve the effectiveness and impact of Community action .
That is to say , it is vital at Community level :
    . To promote   scientific and technical monitoring
      Scientific and technical monitoring consists of detecting emerging
      discoveries   in laboratories and companies as well as the most
      significant technological innovations .       It is necessary to identify
      actions which can improve the analyses and appreciations underlying
      the Community S&T policy and to provide information useful to other
      Community policies .
 ---pagebreak---    . To undertake strategic and impact analyses .
      Strategic and impact analyses have as objective , the highlighting , for
      a scientific field , a technological sector , an economic field of
      activity , the prospects of development , the strengths and weaknesses
      of the countries of the Community ,         the outside threats and
      opportunities and the S&T options open to the Commission , and the
      position of the different actors concerned        ( industrial , Member
      States , social groups , third countries ) with respect to these
      options .
   . To carry out European long term forecasting analyses, particularly
      regarding the interfaces between science, technology , the economy
      and society .
      The purpose of such " global " forecasting is to shed light on
      relations between changes in SST and long-term socio-economic
      developments in the European countries in major areas of critical
      importance for the future of society . Its function is not only to
      identify the challenges of the direct relations between science ,
      technology , economy and society but also to provide long term global
      analyses of the contribution of science and technology to the major
      objectives of the Community in the 1990s ( internal market , economic
      and social cohesion ) taking into account potential trends in world
      economic and social development .
   . To improve the evalu at ion of the effectiveness and impact of
      Community R and D activities on solid scientific , methodological and
      management bases .
      The evaluation of R&D programmes and other forms of intervention in
      the execution of R&D consists of comparing the original objectives ,
      the means made available and the results obtained . At the Community
      level , this is undertaken by Evaluation Groups independent of the
      Commission .  It is a vital step in the ex post verification that the
      programmes undertaken have been well conceived and executed .
      Meanwhile , it is more and more necessary to improve the theoretical
      foundations and methodological tools of the evaluation activities
      by exchanges of information and experience at the Community ,
      national and international levels , and by methods of measurement of
      the impact and efficiency of R&D activities .
These activities , although distinct     in terms     of     the   methodology
used , their organisational modes and means of execution , respond to a
common objective : to be tools in the definition of priorities for and
means of action . They must therefore be conceived and executed in a
coordinated manner to be effective .
 ---pagebreak---                                      -  IV  -
2.   The new situation arising from the objectives of 1992 and adjustments
     in tools of forecasting , strategic analysis and evaluation in matters
     of science and technology .
The Commission already has a large ,           in certain    respects   unique ,
experience in these different fields of activity .
The new context and prospects created by the Single Act for the Common
RDT policy in the perspective of 1992 and after demands a series of
readjustments     which    move   towards     greater    specialisation     and
differentiation , but at the same time towards closer integration of the
different activities . Therefore it is necessary :
a ) To strengthen the activities of the Comunity in the area of scien¬
    tific and technical monitoring .
    Activities of monitoring scientific and technical change constitute a
    permanent function of the Services of the Commission .            For this
    reason ,  the Commission considers it necessary to stimulate scientific
    and technical monitoring activities in the different services of the
    Commission in their own fields of competence , and particularly within
    the new Joint Research Centre where they will benefit from a proper
    environment of scientific and technical support .
b ) To give a stronger operational character to technology assessment
    actions through the undertaking of analyses of a strategic nature " on
    demand ",   that  Ts the    to say    as the    need arises    during the
    implementation of the " Framework Programme ".
    Hence the need to regroup around a programme SAST strategic and impact
    analyses in matters of science and technology as specifically required
    by the Framework Programme ;
c ) To strengthen the specificity and utility of the forecasting
    activities by developing global analyses and the study of relations
    between science , technology , economy and society , with reference in
    particular to the two main objectives of the Community for the 1990s :
    completion of the internal market and reinforcing economic and social
    cohesion within the Community .
    This is the reason why the Commission proposes a readjustment of the
    FAST activities by concentrating its work on problems of integration
    of science and technology into society and on the position of the
    Community vis a vis international developments .
d ) To stimulate Coesmumty research and studies on methods to increase
    the effectiveness and iepact of R and D activities
    While the activities of R and D evaluation are carried out according
    to the specific requirements of each activity , the research actions
    and studies considered here , including the development of quantitative
    indicators , are intended to promote the capacity to measure the
    effectiveness and impact of R and D.        In so doing , they will also
    provide useful elements to Technology Assessment activities .
 ---pagebreak---                                     V
    Hence the interest and opportunity to develop activities in support of
    evaluations    such  as   those  foreseen  in  the   Action  Plan  of  the
    Commission in this field ( OJ C14 of 20 . . 1.87 ) and to integrate these
    support activities within the framework of the present action given
    their close complementarity to strategic and impact analyses and to
    forecasting actions ;
e ) and finally , to derive better results and greater benefits from these
    actions by assuring closer cooperation with activities of forecasting
    and of impact assessment ( e.g.    regional impact , environmental impact )
    undertaken by other Commission departments as well as to ensure the
    highest level of scientific quality .
    Whence the devices envisaged by the Commission to promote maximum
    internal synergy and the most appropriate interaction with the actors
    of R&D systems and of the Community 's technological development .
    In particular the constitution in the Commission of " ad hoc networks "
    to follow the activities SAST and SPEAR , and for FAST activities the
    creation of an " Interservice Group " composed of interested Directors
    General and chaired by the Director General of DG XII .
    Similarly , concerning interactions with the Member States , in addition
    to those    assured by a CGC ( Management and Coordination Advisory
    Committee)common to the three fields of action , the Community proposes
    to  :
    - reinforce the " 12+1 " FAST forecasting network ;
    - create a " 12+1 " SPEAR network designed to tighten, at the Community
       level , the cooperation between national units specialising in the
       evaluation of R and D programmes ;
    - establish frequent working connections with CREST , CODEST , and IRDAC
       around carefully targeted objectives ;
    - promote the association of concerned socio-economic groups           and
       institutions ( industry trade unions etc ) in the execution of      the
       different activities .
 ---pagebreak---                                            vi
                                                                     ANNEX 1
                             SUMMARY OF THE HAIN POINTS
                              ( ANALYSES AND PROPOSALS )
                      CONTAINED IN THE REPORTS AND OPINIONS
                         RELATING TO PROPOSAL C0M<87)502
1 . INTRODUCTION
    The object of this note is twofold .
    Firstly  to  recall    succinctly    the  principal  analyses  and   proposals
    concerning the Proposal C0M(87)502 contained in
    - the evaluation report on FAST II drawn up on 10 October 1987 by a group
      of experts appointed by the Commission and chaired by Mr.Chabbal ;
    - the opinion of the Advisory Committee on Programme Management ( ACPM ) on
      FAST II dated 27 January 1988 ;
    - the opinion of the European Parliament on COM(87)502 approved in
      plenary session on 9 March 1988 ( rapporteur : Mrs.Viehof f );
    - the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee on COM(87)502 approved
      in plenary session on 27 January 1988 ( rapporteur : Mr Rosengrave ).
    Secondly to indicate the main conclusions drawn by the Commission from
    these opinions and reports .
2 . THE FAST II EVALUATION REPORT
    2.1 . The evaluation report establishes a diagnosis ,     draws two principal
          conclusions for the future and puts forward a proposal .
          - The diagnosis
            The diagnosis made in September 1987 on the results obtained and
            the  impact   of    FAST work  in the Commission   and in the Member
            States is one of half success and half failure .
            The group responsible for this diagnosis draws attention to the
            misunderstanding that has persisted up to now concerning the
            objectives and methods of the FAST programme .        The " misunder¬
            standing " was due to the belief that a S / T forecasting programme
 ---pagebreak---                           - vil-
with a clear socio-economic orientation      alone would   have been
sufficient   as   a  means   of  identifying    priorities   for  the
Community research    and   technological development policy .
The group does consider, however, that FAST II has made a
positive contribution in two respects : first , FAST is still one
of the research programmes which in Europe produces " global "
forecasting analyses and syntheses on technological , economic and
social changes and , secondly , it has stimulated and encouraged
the contribution of human and social sciences to the study of
science and technology .
The group's two main concusions
The first conclusion drawn by the group is that more than ever
the Commission needs a system for the assessment , strategic
analysis and forecasting of the development of science and
technology that includes analyses on the implications and effects
on the economy and the social development of the Member States of
the Community .
By definition such a system will have to be multi-faceted         and
will require a significant financial and human input .
The second conclusion is that the FAST team will not be capable ,
because of its specific expertise and the very limited amounts of
funding proposed ( 14 million ECU , a team o7 6 and later 8
research workers ), of organizing and coordinating the whole
system .
The proposai
Consequently , the group proposes that the future programme should
focus on two distinct activities which will be designated by two
different names :
. The first activity would concern " global " forecasting which
  would be the responsibility of the FAST team .     However , before
  making a start on new research projects , the FAST team would
  first have to complete over the next three to four years the
  exploitation of the resutts from FAST II research . In addition
  to this priority task the FAST team would also be expected to
  take part in interdepartmental work and provide general
  information on its forecasting activities .      Lastly , the FAST
  team would have to provide the secretariat and management
  function for twenty or so schemes aimed at promoting the
  interaction of the social sciences with technologists and
  businessmen ( via " heavy workshops ", summer schools and any
  other forms which make such interaction possible ).
. The second activity would consist in helping to improve the
  work being done by the various Commission departments in the
  field of strategic analysis and science and technology
  monitoring .    This would involve the setting up of a new team
  whose task would be to implement and manage schemes aimed at
  encouraging , stimulating and presenting more effectively the
  work being done by the Commission 's departments .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - vi i i
3 . THE OPINION OF THE ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT ON FAST II
    The ACPM for FAST II has not         delivered a formal opinion on proposal
    C0M(87)502 , since it does not regard itself as empowered to do so .
    However , some of its analyses of the results and experience of FAST II
    may be valuable in terms of assessing the future of FAST activities .
    According to the ACPM :
    - FAST II has been an evolutionary and innovative process , making FAST
       into a joint venture between the Member States and the Commission .
    - The approach adopted by FAST ( integration of the societal and the
       technical approach ) has contributed to the growth of European expertise
       in assessing the social implications of scientific and technological
       change ;
    - There is a need to strengthen the interaction between FAST activities
       and the socio-economTc interests concerned^         particularly in the stage
       of the utilization of results .         To this end the Commission ought to
       play a more direct and active role .
    - It is vital in future to match the level of appropriations provided
       more closely to the objectives of the programme .
    - It is necessary to focus the activities of the ACPM on the aspects of
       management and interfacing with " customers" in the Member States and to
       delegate the function of scientific guarantor or have it discharged by
       an outside body in order to make it more effective .
4 . OPINION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
    Parliament has stressed that        it is     important in strategic terms to
    possess at the earliest possible stage forecasts which take into account
    the assessment of the potential social impact of scientific and
    technological progress .
    Its opinion deals principally with the three guiding principles adopted
    by the Commission in formulating its proposal , namely :
    a ) the     establishment    of   closer     links   between    FAST   work   and
        customers / users , which leads on to the idea of programming FAST work
        more flexibly in response to requirements that emerge gradually during
        the implementation of the Framework Programme ;
    b ) greater coordi nat ion between FAST work and similar work undertaken by
        the other Commission departments ;
    c ) more effective integrat ion of FAST activities with the science and
        technology forecasting and assessment carried out in the Memeber
        States .
    On the question of links with customers , Parliament , while endorsing the
    principle,      proposes that the circle of customers be enlarged to include
    Parliament itself ,      regional authorities ,    national ( and internat iona l )
    trade unions and social organizations .          In this context , Parliament not
    only considers it desirable to increase cooperation between and
 ---pagebreak---                                           ix
    harmonization of FAST and the STOA project , but also proposes more
    regular consultations between FAST and the European Parliament , for
    example in the form of an annual public hearing .
    On   the  question   of  coordination  with  the  work   of  other   Commission
    departments , Parliament welcomes the Commission 's intention to set up an
    interdepartmental forecasting group .     However, it believes that in order
    for the principle of coordination to be effective in practice , there is a
    need to devise a different organizational structure for FAST .         The fact
    that FAST is organizationally under DG XII is a constraining factor on
    the inter-disciplinary and horizontal character of the work FAST has to
    do .
    On the matter of integrating with similar activities in the Member
    States , the European Parliament considers it essential that the Member
    States should adopt a more active attitude to FAST 's activities , by :
    - reinforcing the role of the national FAST units ;
    - earmarking   more    funds  and  human  resources   to   the  diffusion   and
       valorisation oi1 FAST activities in each country ;
    - having FAST publications translated into the national languages and
       presenting them in good quality , easily readable brochures .
    Parliament also addresses two other issues : the scientific guarantor and
    the principal subjects of research under the new FAST programme .
    With respect to the scientific quality . Parliament proposes that one of
    the two CGC members from each country should be " a man of science"
    able to evaluate the scientific content of FAST studies .
    It proposes five new themes :
    - the impact of new technologies on the relations                 between   the
       industrialized countries and the developing countries ;
    - new technologies and urban renewal ;
    - the effects of the growing use of computer technology in the cultural
       education of the population;
    - computer illiteracy ;
    - relations between new scientific paradigms and societal concepts .
5 . OPINION OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE
    The ESC delivered a very favourable opinion on the proposal as a whole .
    It nevertheless made the points that :
    - FAST activities should not be confined to requests emanating from the
       Commission and the Member States but should also respond to those from
       the Economic and Social Committee and other institutional bodies of the
       Community :
 ---pagebreak---                                           X
    - strategic assessment of science and technology should be based on the
      inclusion in the process of assessment of all persons involved in and
      affected by science and technology ;
    - the limited extent to which the        existence of   FAST is    known in  the
      Member   States  is  to be   deplored .   Attention   to the    diffusion and
      valorisation of FAST results must be a priority for 1~988 ;
    - the funding set aside for the new FAST programme , although consistent
      with the provisions of the Framework Programme , is modest in relation
      to its objectives .
6 . MAIN CONCLUSIONS PRAWN BY THE COMMISSION
    E The   Commission   accepts  the  need    to  reinforce    the   activities  of
      scientific and technological monitoring at the Community level building
      on existing monitoring systems in the Member States and the Community
      ( e.g. EUROTECHALERT ), and notably on the various institutes of the JRC .
    B The Commission also accepts the idea of making more operational the
      actions of Technology Assessment by developing Tn addi t ion to impact
      analyses new actions of a medium term strategic nature .        Carried out on
      demand as required during the realisation of the ‘‘Framework Programme ",
      the strategic technology assessment exercises must show the options
      open to the Commission in setting its scientific and technological
      priorities and in relation to other Community policies as well as the
      manner in which the other concerned actors ( industrialists , national
      public authorities , social groups etc ) are situated with respect to
      these options .
    S The Commission is in broad agreement with the diagnosis of the
      evaluation group ,     which explains the new direction of the FAST
      programme in its proposal C0M(87)502 .      However , its overall assessment
      of FAST II is generally speaking more favourable than that of the
      expert group , taking into due consideration the use of results from
      FAST II by its own departments and the positive impact that FAST II has
      had in certain Member States . In any case, the Commission also believes
      that the FAST team should specialise in matters of " global " forecasting
      as well as research into major themes at the interface of science,
      technology , the economy , and society , and that it must continue its
      actions in favour of the interaction among researchers in the human ,
      social , natural and physical sciences and technologists , industrialists
      and other concerned social actors . In this perspective , the Commission
      considers it necessary to reinforce the specificity and utility of the
      forecasting activities by developing " global " analyses and studies at
      the interfaces science / technology / economy / society ,   particularly with
      reference to the two major objectives of the Community for the 1990s :
      the completion of the internal market and reinforcing economic and
      social cohesion within the Community .
    B The Commission is convinced of the need to increase by 3 million ECU ,
      the financial resources originally foreseen in proposal C0M(87)502 .
      The opportunity for an increase in resources has been underlined by the
      Parliament , the Economic and Social Committee and by the " Evaluation
      Group " of FAST II which insisted on the inadequacy of the resources
      envisaged .    The increase proposed remains within the limits of Action
 ---pagebreak---   Line 8 of the " Framework Programme ".   It is a logical and operational
  adaptation to the adjustments made to the nature and content of the
  act ivities .
S The Commission wholeheartedly endorses the     idea that it  is now more
  important than ever to set up an integrated system of technological
  assessment strategic analysis ,    of forecasting and of evaluation of R
  and D programmes .    Such a system must develop gradually according to
  need and based on close cooperation between the various services of the
  Commission most closely concerned , always maintaining the necessary
  distinctions at an operational level between the different activities ,
  taking into account their specificities in terms of functions ,
  methodologies utilised and modes of management and organisation .
 ---pagebreak---                                           -1-
                          PROPOSAL FOR A COUNCIL DECISION
                                     of
                   adopting a Community programme in the field
                              of strategic analysis ,
                     forecasting and evaluation in matters of
                              research and technology
                                     ( MONITOR )
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,
Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community ,
and in particular Article 130 Q ( 2 ) thereof
                                                      1
Having regard to the proposal from the Commission
                                                 2
In cooperation with the European Parliament
Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Social Committee"^
- whereas Article 130K of the Treaty states that the Framework Programme
  should be implemented through specific programmes developed within each
  act i vi ty ;
                                                   A
- whereas by its Decision of 28 September 1987 the Council has adopted a
  framework programme of Community research and technological development
  ( 1987-1991 ), providing for activities in the fields of forecasting and
  assessment in science and technology and in evaluation of programmes ;
- whereas ,     for the selection of Community actions ,       the framework
  programme sets out criteria among which is that of contributing to the
  strengthening of economic and social cohesion of the Community ,
  consistent with the pursuit of scientific and technical quality ;
  O.J. No C
  O.J. No C
  O.J. No C
  O.J. No L 302 , 24.10.1987 , p.1
 ---pagebreak---                                           -2-
- whereas the Single European Act enters the European Communities into a
   phase of European construction - notably in scientific , technological
   and industrial cooperation - and therefore calls for a strengthening
   and renewing of long term and strategic analysis and technological
   assessment .
- whereas the growing impact of science and technology on social and
   economic life reinforces , as underlined by the Economic and Social
   Committee , the role and utility of long term analysis of the social and
   economic consequences of developments in science and technology in the
   highlighting of choices in matters of RDT ;
- whereas in 1987 the European Parliament approved , on an experimental
   basis ,   the setting up of an assessment body of scientific and
   technological options ( STOA :     Scientific and Technological Options
   Assessment ) and given the importance of cooperation between Community
   institutions at this level ;
- whereas several    important initiatives have been taken in the Member
   States in matters of programme evaluation , forecasting and technology
   assessment ;
- whereas the Commission, in carrying out its duties regarding evaluation
   of R and D activities , must have the support of reliable methods ,
   appropriate indicators and a network of experienced European
   specialists in order that the effectiveness of its evaluations and its
   capability to measure the impact of R and D activities are improved ;
- whereas the evaluation report of FAST II has been taken into account ;
- whereas the    scientific   and Technical Research     Committee ( CREST )   has
   been consulted on the following measures ;
HAS ADOPTED THIS DECISION :
                                   Article 1
A specific research and technological development programme for the
European Economic Community in the field of Strategic Analysis,
Forecasting and Evaluation in Matters of Research and Technology
( MONITOR ), as defined in the Annex is hereby adopted for a period of five
years from 1 January 1988 .
                                   Article 2
The amount deemed necessary for the execution of the programme is 22
Million ECU , including expenditure on a staff of 12 to 27 persons ( 6A ,
28 , 4 C , - 1988 ; 12A , 2B , 8C - 1989 ; 15A , 28 , 1 OC - 1990 / 92 ) and costs
associated with researchers seconded from Member States to a maximum of
47 man years .
 ---pagebreak---                                             -3-
                                     Article 3
Detailed rules for the implementation of the programme and the rate of
the Community 's financial participation are set out in the Annex .
                                     Artide 4
1.    In the third year of the programme implementation , the Commission
      shall undertake a review of the programme and it shall report to the
      Council and the European Parliament on the results thereof ,
      together , if necessary,        with any proposals for modification or
      prolongation .
2.     An evaluation of the results achieved shall be conducted by the
      Commission , which shall report thereon to the Council and the
      Parliament .
3.    The above mentioned reports shall be established having regard to
      the objectives set out in the Annex to this Decision and in
      conformity with the provisions of Art . 2 ( 2 ) of the framework
      programme .
4.    The Commission will regularly inform - but particularly in the first
      half of 1990 and the end of 1991 - the Council and the Parliament of
      the state of its activities .
                                     Article 5
1.    The Commission shall be responsible for the execution of the
      programme and shall be assisted in its implementation by a
      Management and Coordination Advisory Committee ( C6C ), which shall be
      set up in accordance with the provisions laid down in Council
      Decision 84 / 338/ Euratom , ECSC , EEc .
2.    The contracts entered into by the Commission shall regulate the
      rights and obligations of each party , including the methods of
      disseminating, protecting and exploiting the research results .
                                     Article 6
The Commission is authorised to negotiate, in accordance with Article 130
N of the EEC treaty , agreements with international organizations , those
non-Member States participating in European cooperation in the field of
Scientific and Technological Research ( COST ) and those European countries
having concluded framework agreements in scientific and technical
cooperation with the Community , with a view to associating them wholly or
partly with the programme .
5
   O.J. No L 177 , 4.7.1984 , p.25
 ---pagebreak---                                        -4-
l-Jhorc framework agreements  for   scientific and technical cooperation
between non-Member States     and   the European Communities have been
concluded , organizations and enterprises established in those countries
may participate in a project undertaken within this programme .
                                 Article 7
This Decision is addressed to the Member States .
Done at Brussels , the .
                                             For the Council
                                             The President .
 ---pagebreak---                                             -5-
                                          ANNEX
                        COMMUNITY PROGRAMME IN THE FIELD OF
                           STRATEGIC ANALYSIS , FORECASTING
                        AND EVALUATION IN RATTERS OF RESEARCH
                                    AND TECHNOLOGY
                                       ( MONITOR )
I     AIMS AND ACTIVITIES
  I.The purpose of the programme is to be instrumental in identifying new
      directions and priorities for the Community research and technological
      development policy and to help show more clearly the relationships
      between it and the other common policies .
      It involves factual and strategic analysis and forecasting relating to
      the scientific and technological environment and its interaction with
      economic and social developments .
  2 . It comprises three activities :
      - Strategie and impact analysis ( SAST );
      - FAST forecasting ;
      - Research and studies to improve methodologies and effectiveness of
        evaluation of R and D activities ( SPEAR ).
II . CONTENT AND WORKING METHODS
B Strategie and impact analysis ( SAST )
3 . The SAST activities consist of carrying out " targeted " analyses in a
    scientific field , technology , sector , or a challenging theme . The aim
    is to show the options available to       the   Commission’s    Science and
    Technology policy and interactions with other policies as well as the
    way in which the different concerned actors ( industrialists ,        certain
    local    public  authorities ,   member    and non-member   states ,   social
    groups . _ ) situate themselves with regard to the options .
4 . These activities consist of :
    a)   the preparation of reports on the prospects for development and the
         strengths and weaknesses of the European Community , a group of coun¬
         tries in the Community ,         particularly with respect to R&D
         structures , a high technology sector , a scientific field or in
         relation to important changes in other countries' science and
         technology policies , particularly those outside the Community .
 ---pagebreak---     b)    the carrying out of technology assessments into the state of
         development of a technology and its future evolution , constraints
         to innovation , industrial and socio-economic impact within the
         Community ( by sector , region ....), requirements in terms of R and D
         and investment financing etc ; and
    c)   the preparation of reports of strategic analyses ( Strategic
         Dossiers ) shedding light , for a given problem, on alternatives open
         to the European Community and proposing precise orientations for
         action .
5 . The Commission will establish an annual calendar of priority
      activities which will be adopted after consultation with the C6C .
B FAST forecasting
6 . The FAST forecasting activities are a reoriented follow up to previous
    FAST programmes : they include study of scientific and technological
    changes and their many interactions with economic and social changes .
    Their aim is to provide the Commission with global analyses and long
    term projections . The projections are to be useful in relation to the
    Community’s major objectives for the 1990s , namely the creation of a
    single internal market and strengthening economic and social cohesion
    within the Community ,       and in the light of worldwide economic and
    social developments .
/. Forecasting includes :
    a ) the preparation of reports (" Forecasting dossiers" ) on major topics
        or phenomena of a global character .        The choice of these topics
        will depend on their relevance and significance in relation to the
        objectives of the Common RDT policy .       They may extend beyond the
        strictly European framework ;
    b ) the undertaking of studies of the implications and consequences of
        selected scientific and technical developments which present
        important challenges for society in the future;
    c ) the synthesis and critical analysis of the main forecasting studies
        published worldwide ;
    d ) the preparation every two years of a Report on the economic and
        social implications of technological change , particularly in Europe .
8 . These activities will be defined according to a biennial work programme
    established by the Commission in consultation with the CGC .
9 . These activities will involve the participation of experts and working
    groups from outside the Commission under the responsibility and
    guidance of the FAST team in consultation with other concerned
    Commission services ( including , where necessary , officials from other
    Di rector at es-General seconded to the FAST team for limited periods ) and
    visiting scientists on secondment from the Member States or even from
    non-member countries .
 ---pagebreak---      In addition , the activities under ( a ) and ( b ) will be organized in such
     a way as to ensure the broadest and most efficient possible interaction
     between the actors involved .           To that end the Counci l , the Parliament
     and the Economic and Social Committee will be regularly informed of the
     results of these activities .
10 . FAST forecasting activities are also intended to continue to stimulate
     the development of European forecasting efforts and expertise . To this
     end it will be necessary to reinforce the FAST ”12 + 1 " network
     ( comprising the 12 national FAST units nominated by the Member States
     to ensure interaction between Community activities and similar work
     undertaken in their own countries ) and to encourage the setting up of
     an informal network of European " prospectivists ".
S Activities in support of the evaluation of R&D Programmes ( SPEAR )
11 . Research and studies in support of evaluation of R and D activities at
     the Community level are intended to improve the theoretical and
     methodological bases , as well as the methods of organisation and
     management of , Community , national and international R and D programmes .
     They will also analyse and improve the effectiveness and impact of R&D
     activities , and support the evaluation " Plan of Action".
12 . To this end , the SPEAR activities comprise :
        the preparation, in conformity with the evaluation Plan of Action of
        A   to  5  horizontal       evaluation s of  certain   activities   common   to
        Community ^   nat i o na l or international research in order to analyse
        their impact and identify means to improve their effectiveness at
        Community level .        This covers analyses of methods of support and of
        management of national and Community research .
     - research actions into methodologies of evaluation of R and D            prog-
        rammes in order to           increase their   utility and make them more
        credible to their users .          This will be in conformity with articles
        5 , 6 and 7 of the Plan of Action referenced above .
        In particular it must :
        ° improve methods for evaluations which cover at               the same time
           Community and related national R&D programmes ;
        0 stimulate research into the methodology of evaluation and its use
           in Member States ;
        ° develop quantitative indicators that can describe the quality and
           utility of research and its contribution              to  the   Community 's
           economic and social development ; and
        0 prepare    guidelines       for   the  carrying   out   of   R&D   programme
           evaluations in the light of the European experience .
13 . The Commission will establish an annual calendar of priority
     activities which will be adopted after consultation with the CGC .
 *
     See Action Ptan O.J. C 14 of 20 January 1987 pp 5-8
 ---pagebreak---                                          -8-
III . IMPLEMENTATION
14 . The preceding paragraphs define the aims of the various activities .
     They specify the products and services expected and the appropriate
     working methods .
     Given the different nature of these activities , and their specificity ,
     implementation will include :
     - involving in the above mentioned activities research centres or
       research teams from the Community countries specializing in
       strategic and impact analyses , forecasting and evaluation of R and D
       programmes , especially by setting up networks , organising workshops ,
       seminars . .. .
     - The setting up of two " 12+1 " networks ,        one linked to FAST
       forecasting, the other to SPEAR . Their objectives will be the
       exchange and diffusion of information,          promotion within the
       Community of more effective means of forecasting and of evaluation
       of R and D , and also the exploitation of results; and
     - secondment of visiting scientists from national institutions and
       governments to take part in the various activities .
     The financial contribution of the Community towards these activities
     could be up to 100% of necessary expenditures .
 ---pagebreak---                                          -9-
                                 FINANCIAL ANNEX
1 . BUDGET HEAPING : 7385*.
    This programme     in the  field of    strategic analysis ,  forecasting and
    evaluation in matters of research and technology forms part of action line
    8.3 of the Framework programme " forecasting and assessment and other
    back-up measures ( including statistics )".      Of the total amount of 22
    Million ECU , 3 Million ECU are from action line 8.1 , " stimulation ,
    enhancement and use of human resources ".
2 . LEGAL BASIS
    Arti cle 130 Q , § 2 .
3 . DESCRIPTION OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
    The purpose of this project is to contribute to the identification of new
    directions and priorities in the common research and technological
    development policy and to establish more clearly the relationships between
    it and the other common policies and to the improvement of evaluation of R
    and D programmes .
    It comprises three activities :
    - Strategie and impact analyses ( SAST );
    - FAST forecasting ;
    - Research and studies in support of the evaluation of R and D activities
      ( SPEAR ).
    The SAST activities consist of carrying out impact studies ( technological ,
    industrial , socio-economic , environmental ) and analyses " targeted " at a
    scientific field , technology , sector . The aim is to show the strategic
    options available to the Community 's science and technology policy and the
    way in which the different actors concerned , inside and outside the
    Community , situate themselves with respect to these options .
    The FAST activities include the study of scientific and technological
    changes and their many interactions with economic and social changes .    The
    aim of this work is to provide the Commission with long term global
    projections that will be useful to it when determining its choices in
    science and technology policy , particularly in the light of the Community 's
    major objectives for the 1990s , namely the creation of a single internal
    market and the strengthening of economic and social cohesion within the
    Community .
   Budget line 7385 regroups , from 1.1.1989 , the three activity sectors SAST ,
   FAST , SPEAR for which specific accounting codes must be established .
   Expenditure up to 31.12.1988 concerns only FAST and will continue to be
   imputed to budget line 7300 . Budget line 7386 concerning SPEAR activities in
   the draft 1989 budget , must consequently be discontinued . The agreement of
   the budgetary authorities to this new presentation will be sought during the
   1989 budgetary procedure .
 ---pagebreak---                                        -10-
    The SPEAR    activities concern  the definition   of practical   and reliable
    procedures for the evaluation of R and D programmes and other methods of
    carrying out R and D. They also cover the means of support and management
    of research . The goal is on one hand to provide programme managers and
    other concerned officials with information helpful to the improvement of
    their means of operation, and on the other hand to develop methodological
    recommendations ( e.g. selection of quantitative indicators ) for programme
    evaluators .
    To ensure the best possible integration of these activities into the
    different stages of development of the Community research programme , these
    activities will be carried out in response to specific requests of the
    Commission in consultation with the CGC and other Community institutions
    during the realisation of the Framework Programme ,     with the exception of
    the activities of FAST forecasting which are organised via two-year work
    programmes , 1989-90 and 1991-92 . The activities of SPEAR must furthermore
    be  conducted in   accord with  the Action  Plan of   the Commission  for the
    evaluation of programmes .
4 . JUSTIFICATION
    The facility to provide the Commission with information and to shed light
    on long term industrial , economic and social challenges to the countries of
    the European Community brought about by scientific and technological change
    is necessary for the effective, coherent and pertinent development of the
    Community’s research programme , and its        relation to other Community
    policies , and to national science and technology policies .
    The progress which can be realised at a theoretical , methodological and
    operational level in European forecasting in the field of science and
    technology and in technology assessment , is a distinct advantage in
    defining common strategies for the development and use of science and
    technology in the general interest of Europe .
    Concerning the improvement of methods and indicators allowing the
    evaluation of the quality and utility of programmes and other actions of R
    and D , the Community action must simultaneously encourage the assembly of
    dispersed European expertise, the stimulation of the development of this
    expertise and the taking into account of the European dimension in
    evaluation of R&D programmes . Community or national .
 ---pagebreak---                                                - 11-
5 . FINANCIAL COSTS OF INTERVENTION ACTIVITIES
    The   estimated      total   cost    for    the  Community   budget for   the  period
    ( 1988-1992 ) is ( in millions of ECUs ): 22.0 .
    The flow of expenditures relevant to the Community Budget is as follows ( in
    millions of ECUs .)
    B   COW1ITHENTS .
    GLOBAL TABLE ( SAST , FAST , SPEAR )
                               B. 1988     PDB.1989       1990   1991    1992     Total
        Personnel                  1 060    1  773,5    2  321,5 2 500   2 570    10 225
        Administrative and
        technical costs               360      566,5       553,5   555      515    2 550
        FAST Networks'88              480
        Cont ract s / Networks        900   1 460       2 425    2 345   1 615     9 225
           Tota l                  2 8001   3 800       5 300    5 400   4 700    22 000
        Breakdown into the three separate activities is as follows :
    A ) STRATEGIC AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ( SAST )
                               B.1988      PDB.1989       1990     1991   1992    Total
        - Personnel                           563,5       716,5     770     800   2 850
        - Administrative and
          technical costs                     101,5       148,5     160     180     590
        - Contracts / networks      -         285      1 035      1 070     720   3 110
          Total                               950      1 900      2 000  1 700    6 550
   In the budget for 1988, personnel costs as at 1st January 1988 , together with
   related administrative costs are charged to the budget of the old programme for a
   total amount of 1.2 million ECU .            Following the adoption of the programme by the
   Council , the budgetary situation will be adjusted to conform to the new decision .
 ---pagebreak---                                             - 12-
   B ) FAST FORECASTING
                               B . 1988  P0B.1989  1990    1991    1992      Total
       - Personnel             1 060        890     900     910      920    4 680
       - Administrative and
         technical costs           360      345     280     265      200     1 450
       - FAST networks'88          480 )
         Cont r act s / Networks 900 )      615     920     825      580     4 320
         Total                 2   800 1  1 850   2 100   2 000   1 700    10 450
       SUPPORT FOR EVALUATION OF R&D PROGRAMMES ( SPEAR )
                              B. 1988    P0B.1989  1990    1991    1992      Total
       - Personnel                 -
                                            320     705     820      850     2 695
       - Administrative
         and technical
         costs                     _
                                            120     125     130      135       510
       - Contracts /
         Networks                  -
                                            560     470     450      315     1 795
         Total                     -
                                          1 000   1 300   1 400   1 300      5 000
   ■ PAYhENTS .
      GLOBAL TABLE ( SAST , FAST , SPEAR )
                              B.1988     PDB.1989   1990  1991  1992     1993     Total
      Personnel                1 060     1 773,5  2 321,5 2 500 2 570      -     10 225
      Administrative
      and technical
      costs                        360     566,5    553,5   555   515      -      2 550
      FAST networks '88            480 )
      Contracts / Networks         160 )   860    1 590   1 855 2 060    2 220    9 225
      Total                   2 0601     3 200    4 465   4 910 5 145 2 220 22 000
1
  See page 11
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 13-
   Breakdown into the three separate activities is as follows :
   A ) STRATEGIC AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ( SAST )
                           B.1988  PDB.1989      1990  1991  1992 1993   Total
       Personnel             -
                                    563,5       716,5   770   800   -
                                                                         2 850
       Administrât ive
       and technical
       costs                        101,5       148,5   160   180          590
       Contracts /
       Networks              -
                                     50         355     670   970 1 065  3 110
         Total               -
                                    715       1 220   1 600 1 950 1 065  6 550
       FAST FORECASTING
                          B.1988   PDB.1989      1990  1991  1992 1992   Total
       Personnel          1 060      890          900   910   920   -
                                                                         4 680
       Admini strat ive
       and technical
       costs                360      345          280   265   200   -
                                                                         1 450
       Networks '88 /       480 )
       Contracts / Networks 160 )    450          720   725   730 1 055  4 320
        Tota l            2 0601   1 685        1 900 1 900 1 850 1 055 10 450
1
  See page 11
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 14-
C ) SUPPORT FOR EVALUATION OF R&D PROGRAMMES ( SPEAR )
                       B.1988      APB . 1989   1990    1991   1992  1993    Total
    Personnel                         320        705     820    850     -
                                                                             2 695
    Administrât ive
    and technical
    costs                              120       125     130    135            510
    Cont racts /
    Networks                           360       515     460    360   100    1 795
      Total                            800    1  345   1 410 1  345   100    5 000
M   METHODS OF CALCULATION
    A ) PERSONNEL COSTS
      - Personnel requirements for 1988 have been estimated at :
        6 ( six ) temporary agents - Grade A ( scientific researchers )
        2 ( two ) temporary agents - Grade B
        4 ( four ) temporary agents - Grade C.
        These posts have already been authorised in the 1988 budget .
      - Personnel requirements for 1989 have been estimated at :
        12 ( twelve ) temporary agents - Grade A ( scientific researchers )
         2 ( two ) temporary agents - Grade B
         8 ( eight ) temporary agents - Grade C.
        The new posts , 6A and 4C ,     have been requested in the Commission 's
        proposed budget for 1989 .
      - The requirements for 1990-1992 have been estimated at :
        15 ( fifteen ) temporary agents - Grade A ( scientific researchers )
         2 ( two ) temporary agents - Grade B
        10 ( ten ) temporary agents - Grade C.
        The additional new posts ,    2A and 1C ,    will be requested during the
        budgetary procedure for 1990 .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 15-
 - Breakdown into the three separate activities is as follows :
                                    1988          1989        1 990-1 992
    0 Strategic and Impact
      analysis ( SAST )               –
                                               3A,1B,1C         5A,1B,2C
    ° FAST forecasting            6A,2B,4C     5A,1B,4C         5A,1B,4C
    0 Support for evaluation
      of R&D programmes ( SPEAR )              4A ,    3C       5A ,   4C
    Total :                       6A,2B,4C   1 2A,2B,8C       1 5A,2B,1 0C
    Under this heading is also included the contribution by the
    Commission to the expenses of associated researchers ( visiting
    fellows ) seconded by the Member States .       The number of associated
    researchers has been estimated at 47 man years for the period in
    question ( 1988-1992 ) for the three combined activities : 12 man years
    for SAST ; 20 man years for FAST ;   and 15 man years for SPEAR .
    In addition to personnel costs , these amounts cover mission expenses ,
    representation costs and occasional payments .
    It should be borne in mind that FAST 's scientific personnel ( central
    team + visiting fellows ) is composed of researchers who will
    themselves carry out research and not limit themselves solely to
    management / administrative roles .
    Concerning SPEAR ,     in order to guarantee that the methodological
    studies are incorporated into specific programme evaluations , the
    personnel will be incorporated into the group which is normally
    charged with the task of evaluation described in Plan of Action ( O.J.
    C14 of 20.1.87 , pp 5-8 ).
B ) ADMINISTRATIVE AND TECHNICAL EXPENSES
    These refer in particular to :
    - Management Committee meetings ( CGC ) and working groups , expert
      meetings , publication and documentation costs , costs incurred in
      obtaining data bank information, etc .;
    - Purchase, hire and maintenance of computer equipment , including
      necessary software .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 16-
  C ) NETWORK / CONTRACT EXPENSES
      1)  Network costs
          These refer in particular to research expenses ( meetings ,
          diffusion and valorisation of results , conferences ,       working
          seminars and debates in Brussels ,         publication of concise
          information documentation , of ad hoc syntheses for the general
          public ( in several languages ), making available communications
          and video back-up, etc . incurred in the direct organisation and
          animation of the network activities .
      2)  Contract Expenses
          These refer to expenses involved in carrying out strategic and
          impact analysis , forecasting, and support for evaluation, to the
          contributions      demanded      from certain     research  centres
          participating in various network      activities ,   and in certain
          activities of diffusion and valorisation of results .
          They also refer to expenses incurred for research contracts , for
          " scenario writing",      animation of workshops and contracts for
          students and " stagiai res" ( travel and training ), expert and
          auditing contracts and other operations .
B FUNDING OF EXPENSES
  The credits necessary to cover the Community contribution to the
  activities must be included in the budgets for the years 1988-1992 .
B NETHOD OF CONTROL
  0 administrative control by the Director General for Financial Control
     in putting the budget into effect ;
  0 scientific control :
     - Management and Coordination Advisory Committee ( CGC )
  O
     verification of accounts by the Auditor of Accounts in conformity with
     the regulations of the Treaty .