CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: pt
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: PROJECTO DE RESOLUCAO DO CONSELHO RELATIVA AO EFEITO DE ESTUFA E A COMUNIDADE

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
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 ---pagebreak--- COMISSÃO DAS COMUNIDADES EUROPEIAS
                                    COM(88 ) 656 final
                                    Bruxelas , 14 de Dezembro de 1988
         COMUNICAÇÃO DA COMISSÃO AO CONSELHO
                          sobre
  "O Problema    do Efeito de Estufa e a Comunidade"
                            e
                      Projecto de
                  RESOLUÇÃO DO CONSELHO
     relativa ao efeito de estufa e a Comunidade
             ( Apresentados pela Comissão )
                          j j
 ---pagebreak---      ComunicaçSo da ComissSo ao Conselho
             sobre
"0 PROBLEMA DO EFEITO DE ESTUFA
        E A COMUNIDADE "
 ---pagebreak---                                 -2-
                               ÍNDICE
                                                Na    Paginas
RESUMO DE EXECUÇÃO E CONCLUSÕES                 A-C     4-11
I.    UMA INTRODUÇÃO AO PROBLEMA DO EFEITO DE
      ENTUFA
      O que é o efeito de estufa resumidamente  1- 2   12-13
      Gases com efeito de estufa : fontes de
      emissão e tendências da concentração
      atmosférica                               3-10   13-20
      Potenciais consequências climáticas do
      aumento das concentrações dos gases com
      efeito de estufa                         11-13   20-2 "
      Potenciais impactes das alterações
      climáticas                               14-LI   27-22
II .  0 ENQUADRAMENTO E . AS PERSPECTIVAS
      INTERNACIQNÁIS
      Introdução                                   22  32-23
      A conferência mundial sobre "A Atmosfera
      em transformação " ( Toronto , 27-30 de
      Junho de 1988 )                              23  33-38
      Evoluções futuras possfvels              24-28   38-40
III . ANALISE DAS ACÇOES POSSÍVEIS
      Introdução                               29-31   40-41
      Actividades de investigação              32-36   42-44
      Acção preventiva                         37-42   44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                    -3-
                                                    Na      Págir.a
       AdaptaçSo planeada                          43-45     48-49
       CooperaçSo com os países em desenvolvimento     46    49-50
IV .   CONCLUSÕES DA COMISSÃO                      47-58  .  51-54
ANEXO
A Conferência de " Villach "
( Villach-Xustrla , 9-15 de Outubro de 1985 )        A           55
0 Simpósio da CEE sobre " CO2 e outros
gases com efeito de estufa*'
( Bruxelas , 3-5 de Novembro de 1986 )               B           5?
As reuniões de trabalho sobre " Políticas
em desenvolvimento em resposta às alterações
climáticas " ( Villach-Áustria , 28 de Setembro -
 - 2 de Outubro de 1987 e Bellagio-Itália ,
9 ■ - 13 de Novembro de 1987 )                       C       58-60
0 relatório da Comissão Brundtland                   D           61
A resolução do Parlamento Europeu                    E           61
 ---pagebreak---                                            -4-
                          RESUMO BE EXECUÇÃO E CONCLUSÕES
A.        RESUMO
A. 1 .    Introdução
          Em 19 de Julho de 1988 , a Comissão decidiu criar um grupo
          interserviços destinado a apresentar, até meados de Novembro de
          1988 , ideias preliminares relativamente a possíveis acçces
          da Comunidade respeitantes ao " problema do efeito de es:u
          fa " .
          0 . objectivo deste documento é, com base no trabalho do grupo acima mencionado,
           neceruna perspectlva geral de tal problema e apresentar conclus3es e recomenda ¬
          ções relativas a trabalhos posterior a empreender ímedia-
          tamente , acções a tomar urgentemente e acções relativas ao possí¬
          vel papel da Comunidade Europeia no debate internacional
          deste assunto complexo , ;
A. 2 .    0 problema do efeito de estufa
A , 2.1 . As actuais condições climáticas na Terra são determinadas ,
          em larga medida , pela composição da atmosfera .
          Vapor de água , dio'xido de carbono ( C0 2 ), metano ( CH4 ), õxi
          do de azoto ( NgO ), ozono (0 3 ) e, desde hi pouco tempo, CFC, armazenam
           na atmosfeha parte da radiação solar      incidente - através - da absorção
          de parte da radiação de infravermelhos que é emitida pela
           Terra para equilibrar a radiação solar incidente .
A.2.2 . 0 homem está a modificar^ a uma taxa inaudita, a composição
           da atmosfera . As concentrações de todos os gases que exer
           cem um efeito de estufa estão a aumentar devido à inter ¬
           ferência das actividades humanas com os ciclos biogeequí -
          mlcos de tais substâncias . A dimensão de tais modificações
          é significativa em termos de potenciais alterações climátí
          cas .
          t do conhecimento actual que os balanços térmicos terres ¬
           tres estão a ser modificados e que se seguirão inevitável
          mente algumas alterações climáticas , que dependem da di ¬
          mensão de tais modificações .
 ---pagebreak---                                      -5-
A. 2 . 3 . 0 mais importante gás com efeito de estufa ê o COg cujas
           emissões resultam , sobretudo , da queima de combustíveis
            fo^seeis (5 Gtor. de carbono / ano*) , queima de lenha e deccm
            posição de biomassa das florestas associada à desflores -
            taçao ( 0,5-2 Gton de carbono por ano )»
            0 COg é actualmente responsável por cerca de um poucc mais
            de 50 Jé do efeito de estufa . Cerca de 25 % deste efeitc é
            devido aos CFG utilizados em diversas aplicações tais como
            aerosóis , latas de pulverizaçSo ,       ar condicionado , frigo ¬
            ríficos , solventes , empacotamentos , etc . 0 restante é atri
            buível ao metano ( CH4 ) proveniente do gado , dos arrozais ,
            da exploração de gás natural , da queima ineficiente de bio
            massa e carvão , ao õxido de azoto ( NgO ) proveniente da com
            bustao de combustíveis fosseis e da utilização de fertili ¬
            zantes azotados e ainda do ozono troposférico resultante
            de processos fotoquímicos na atmosfera poluída . As emis ¬
            sões dos gases com efeito de estufa têm aumentado sigr.i -
            f icativamer.te nas últimas décadas .
A. 2 . 4 , Com base nos resultados dos modelos climáticos globais , pode con ¬
            cluir-se que a Terra sofrerá um aumento da temperatura su
            perficial média entre 1,5°C e 4,5°C se a concentração ccs
            gases com efeito de estufa atingir 0 dobro da concentração
            destes gases na época pré-industrial . Se se mantiverem as
            tendências actuals , prevê -se que isto aconteça antes de 2D50 - .
 A , 2.5 , Os actuais modelos climáticos náo são capazes de fornecer
             uma avaliação regional segura das potenciais alterações cli'
             mátic&e que correspondem à subida média da temperatura da
             superfície terrestre acima mencionada .
             Avaliações grosseiras indicam que a subida da temperatura
             na Europa pode ser mais elevada que a média mundial .
 A. 2 . 6 , Os impactos indlrectos de tais alterações climáticas pedem
             ser resumidos do seguinte modo :
             - uma subida do nível do mar ( de 30 cm a 1,5 m para um acue
                cimento da ordem dos 1,5a 4,5°C );
             - uma redução dos gelos marinhos ;
             - uma redução dos recursos hídricos em algumas regiões ;
             - modificações da produtividade agrícola ;
             - impactos sobre a saiíde humana e impactos ecológicos .
 * 1 GTons= 10 ^ toneladas = 1 0_00._ milhoes _de toneladas
 ---pagebreak---                                                -6-
 A, 3,       O enauadramentc e a» perspectiva » internacional »
 A.3.1 , Na " Conferência Internacional sobre a avaliação e papel cio
             C0 2 e de outros gases oom efeito de estufa nas variações
             climáticas e impactos associados " ( Villach , 9a 15 de Ou tu
             bro de 1985 } chegou-se a um consenso científico relativa -
             mente aos factoras básicos do problema do efeito de estufa
             referido nos pontos anteriores .
 A. 3 . 2 . As oonclusÕes da Conferência de Villach foram posteriormen
             te desenvolvidas num aimpdelo da CEE em Bruxelas (3 a 5 . de
             Novembro de 1986 ) em matéria de " COg e outros gases com
             efeito da estufa : impactos climáticos e assoolados " e r.u-
             ma reunião de trabalho realizada em Bellagio (9 a 13 de
             Novembro de 1987 ) relativa ás " Políticas em desenvolvimen ¬
             to em resposta à a alterações climáticas ".
 A , 3 . 3 . 0 problema do efeito de estufa fci igualmente considerai ;;
             no âmbito do trabalho da Comissão Brundtland . Seguír.do as
             recomendações dessa Comissão , realizou -se em Toronto ( 27
             a 30 de Junho de 1988 ) uma Conferência Mundial sobre 1 ^
                 atmosfera em transformação , implicações para a segurança
             global ". Foram nomeadamente recomendadas                          nessa conferên ¬
             cia as seguinte,'.; accões :
             - Ratificar o Protocolo de Montreal relativo às Substâncias
                  que Reduzem a Camada de Ozono . 0 Protocolo deverá ser re ¬
                  visto em 1990 nò sentido cie assegurar um» •“ tqua*e ; ' - total elimina ¬
                  ção das emissões de CFC completamente halogenados até ao
                  ano 2000 .
             - Estabelecer políticas energéticas destinadas a reduzir as emissões
                  de CQg e outros gases vestigiais de modo a diminuir os ris
/•              ■ cos de um futuro aquecimento global .
                  Reduzir as emissões de COg em cerca de 20 % relativamente
                  aos níveis de 1988 até ao ano de 2005, como um objectivo
              .■ global inicial nas nações industrializadas .
              - Estabelecer objectivos para melhoramentos da eficiência
                  energética que estão dlrectamente relacionados com as re
                  duçÕes de CCg e outros gases com efeito de estufa .
              - Encetar o desenvolvimento de uma convenção global .
              - Criar um Fundo para a Atmosfera Mundial ,
  2.3,4 . ija ' possível            resultado - a curto prazo das actívidades
              internacionais acima mencionadas é *• â - ’ábéftura ,                   já em 1989 ,
              do processo de preparação de um acordo relativo - ao probiema
              4b «feito de estufa, incluindo eventualmente protocolos sobr« a limitaria
 ---pagebreak---                                         -7-
  A. 3 . 5 . Os próximos acontecimentos importantes no sentido desse ecoa¬
               do      serão provavelmente :
              - a reunião de trabalho internacional em matéria de legis ¬
                 lação e política a realizar em Ottawa no início de 1553 ;
              - uma conferência política a elevado nível a convocar r.o
                 Outono de 1990 pelo Ministério do Ambiente dos Países
                 Baixos ;
              - a Segunda Conferência Mundial sobre Clima , Genebra , Jur.ho
                 de 19 90 ;
              - a Conferência Intergovernamental em matéria de desenvol ¬
                 vimento sustentável em 1992 , que poderã constituir o
                 acontecimento culminante .
  A. 4 .      Possíveis acçães
  A.4.1 . As políticas que abordam o problema do efeito de estufa
              podem incluir aoções preventivas e / ou de adaptação .
  A , 4 . 2 . A acção preventiva é aquela que tem por objectivo a redução
              das emissões des gases com efeito de estufa , de modo a re ¬
              duzir os efeitos previsíveis .
              No caso do CG -» as áreas de intervenção mais importantes
              são o sector energético , de um modo geral , e a silvicul ¬
              tura nas regiões tropicais .
              Constituem exemplos de medidas no domínio da energia que poderiam
              contribuir para reduzir as emissões de COg :
              - o aumento da eficiência energética ( tanto no abasteci ¬
                  mento como no consumo ) ;
>•            - optar por -combustíveis com menor teor de carvão ;
               - promover fontes de energia renováveis e a utilização susten¬
                  tável de biomassa ;
               - promover a energia nuclear segura .
              A promoção de tecnologias energéticas inovadoras para apoiar
               estas medidas reveste -se de particular importância .
               A longo prazo , os novos sistemas energéticos não baseades
               no carbono poderiam prestar uma contribuição * significativa para
               a redução das emissões de COg *
 ---pagebreak---                                           -8-
              i  ,
             E obvio que r.em todas as medidas acima mencionadas tem a
             mesma eficácia . Além disso , é necessária uma cuidadosa ava
             liação da sua viabilidade económica .
             As políticas no domínio da silvicultura devem procurar in ¬
             verter as actuais tendências no sentido da desf lorestaçãc ,
             especialmente nas regiões equatoriais . Isto exigiria , em
             especial, a promoção de substitutos para a ler.ha utilizada
             massivamente como combustível nessas regiões e a promoção
             de práticas agrícolas sustentáveis de modo a que a expan ¬
             são agrícola nao envolva a queimarem larga escala, de flo ¬
             restas para desbravar terrenos .
 A. 4 . 3 . São menos fáceis de identificar as acções possíveis no ser.ti_
             do de diminuir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa
             tais como o CH4 e o NgO , dadas as incertezas que rodeiam
             as emissões destas substâncias .
             Podem ser explorados os seguintes assuntos :
           . - Minimizar as perdas de CH4 na extracção , transporte e
                 utilização de gás natural .
             - Minimizar as perdas de CH 4 provenientes dos aterros .
             - Minimizar as emissões de N2O resultantes da queima de
                 combustíveis fosseis .
             - Estudar possíveis melhoramentos da gestáo pecuária , cul
                 tivo do arroz e gestão de lagoas tendo como objectivc a
                 redução da libertação de CH4 .
             - Estudar possíveis práticas de gestSo de fertilização aper
                 feiçoadas para reduzir a libertação de NgO proveniente da
                 utilização de fertilizantes azotados .
^A.4,4 . No caso dosCFC , deverá ser viável a eliminação quase total
               das emlssSes de CFG até ao ano 2000 por meio da restrição da
             produção e recaptura, reciclagem ou destruição dos CFC nos
             produtos existentes .
 A. 4 . 5 . Poder&o vir a ser necessárias medidas de adaptação ( como
              as necessárias para evitar ou diminuir os danos causados
             pelas alterações climáticas e impactos associados ) desti ¬
             nadas a tratar os efeitos que , apesar das acçÕes de pre
             venção , não é possível evitar .
             Na presente fase , nao é possível pormenorizar medidas de
              adaptação que poderão vir a ser necessárias na Comunidade
              devido à ausência dç una avaliação regional segura dos irr.pac
 ---pagebreak---                                           -9-
        De um modo geral ,. a adaptação relativa à subida do nível
        do mar poderia incluir diques marítimos / barreiras concra
        inundações,, programas nacionais de seguros contra inunda
        çSes , construção de reservatórios ( para combater o aurr.en
        to da salinidade ), abandono de regiões desenvolvidas em
        zonas de Cota baixa , transferência das populações para
        fora dos locais vulneráveis , prntecção dos ecossistemas
        costeiros .
        São necessários mais estudos para identificar as possíveis
        medidas de adaptação em outros sectores , tais como a agri ¬
        cultura e a silvicultura .
 B.^    CONCLUSÕES RELATIVAS AO ESTADO DOS CONHECIMENTOS SOBRE 0 PROBLEMA DO EFEITO DE ESTUFA
 B.l .  A composição' da atmosfera terrestre está a ser modificada ,
        de um modo significativo , pelas actividades humanas .
        Com base nos resultados dos modelos                climáticos globais , os
        cientistas concordam que uma duplicação da concentração
        atmosférica de C0 2 equivalente conduzirá a um aumento da                            y
        temperatura superficial média da ordem dos 1,5 a 4,5°C . E
        provável que se verifique esta duplicação até meados dc
        próximo século .
        De acordo com os dados climatéricos, a resultante alteração
        das condições climáticas médias globais situar- se - á " para
        além da gama de climas que existiram durante as épocas his
   •    tóricas passadas e durante as épocas geólogicas recentes ."
  B.2 . No momento presente , os diversos impactos de tais alterações
/       climáticas e- as suas consequências sócio -económicas nac po­
        dem ser avaliadas pormenorizadamente de um modo seguro . Con
        tudo , os trabalhos preliminares efectuados nesta matéria
        indicam que OB r I nros oSo sl nrnrinn temente filrvfvion o que nn
        consequências directas e indirectas sao potencialmente
        disruptivas .
  B.3 . Os recentes acontecimentos internacionais ■'"■tornaram
        presente                o          debate mundial deste problema . Ccns
        tatou-se claramente que chegou a altura de desenvolver es ¬
        tratégias viáveis enquanto se aceleram os esforços de in ¬
        vestigação .
 ---pagebreak---                                     * 10
c,    CONCLUSSES   DA   COMISSflO
c.o . As prlncipEls      conclusões       desv relatõrio encontram -se
       aqui  resumidas . No Capitulo     IV deste documento é fornecida
       uma apresentação completa .
C.l . A Comunidade deve aplicar na íntegra a Conver.cao de Vier.a
      para a protecção da camada de ozono e o Protocolo de Montreal
      relativo às substâncias que reduzem a camada de czono e deve
      participar actlvamente na renegociação desse Protocole .
C.2 . A Comunidade deve acolher favoravelmente o início das dis
      cussÕes sobre as possibilidades de um acordo internacional
      para a future protecçlo ' ' da atmosfera . Deve encontrar-se preparada
      para prestar uma contribuição . importante à preparação e nego ¬
      ciação desse acordo que poderia incluir a definição ce
      objectivos específicos para limitar as emissões de gases
      com efeito de estufa bem como a definição de medidas e                            /
      programas de redução de emissões . .                                      .. e 'y
                                                                             /
C.3 , Por conseguinte ,       a   Comi3sSo    tomaré     a ■ 1ni c1 at 1 ve^
      de     lançar       um ampio       programa     de estudo das opções
      políticas para nvallar a exequibilidade , custos e resulta ¬
      dos prováveis das medidas possíveis para reduzir as emis ¬
      sões de gases com efeito de estufa . Os resultados de tal
      programa forneceriam contribuições uteis para o debate
      internacional desta questão .
      As principais áreas de tal programa devem ser :
      - identificação e avaliação técnica de medidas e tecnolo ¬
         gias eusceptíveis de reduzir as emissões de gases co.r.
         efeito de estufa ;
      - análise das repercussões e impactos econõmicos , indus ¬
        triais , energétioos, sociais e institucionais das medidas e   tecncla
         glas possíveis acima mencionadas ; .
      - cenários das políticas de estruturação e avaliação re ¬
         ferentes espcr« ! nl monte non ptu/.r. fvn l r. nlvn ;: cr.l.rni.ógi oos
         para o limite das emissões de COg .
 ---pagebreak---  - definição de um quadro de análise de decisões
 - identificação e avaliação de políticas de adaptação .
 A Comunidafie e 03 seus Estados-msmbros deverr, ter agcra em
 conta nas suas decisões no âmbito das políticas ( relaciona
 das com a energia ou com outros sectores relevantes para
 este assunto ) o problema das alterações climáticas              poten
 ciais associadas ao efeito de estufa . Um estudo antecipado
 deste problema poderia evitar rio futuro custos mals eleva
 dos .
Além disto , a Comissão promoverá acções para reforçar e alargar os esforços
no domínio das economias de energia , melhoramento da eficiência energética ,
desenvolvimento de novas fontes energéticas , utilização da tecnologia nu¬
clear segura . Deve ser atribuída uma elevada prioridade ao desenvolvimento
e promoção acelerados de tecnologias Inovadoras à escala comercial nestes
domínios .
Não restam dúvidas que tais acções se justificarri devido â$ necessidades em
termos de energia e ambiente , independentemente das incertezas que rodeiam
alguns aspectos científicos do problema do efeito de estufa .
Seria de especial importância a possibilidade de quantificar o Melhoramento
da eficiância energética em termos de reduções de COg .
 4
A Comunidade deve apoiar programas de investigação vigorosos sobre todos
  os     aspectos do problema do efeito de estufa e deve proporcionar novas
tecnologias energéticas dotadas de um potencial para limitar as emissões    »
de GO.,.
 ---pagebreak---                                       12 -
I. AW INTRODUCTION TO THE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
   What the "greenhouse effect* is in short
1. The climate conditions we experience on earth are due/ among other
   things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
   composition . Without the atmosphere / the average surface temperature of
   the earth / which is presently of around 15°C / would be as low as -18°C .
   In fact / the heat balance of the earth / which receives radiation from
   the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space / is largely governed
   by the composition of the atmosphere .
   Firstly water vapour / mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere / is an
   effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
   radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
   surface temperature of the earth .
   Moreover/ other substances such as carbon dioxide ( COg)/ methane ( CH^)/
   nitrous oxide (^0) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs ) have the property of
   being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
   retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
   infra-red radiation .
   Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
                  (1 )
   by the earth .
   The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
   coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2. The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
   significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
   mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
   balance of the earth .
^ Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
   ultraviolet radiation from the sun .    Moreover ozone contributes to the
   absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
   contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere . Any change
   in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
   thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 13 -
     In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CO.,,
     CFCs, CH^, ^0, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
     gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
     and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
     depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
     This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect "
     because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
     incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
     radiation by the ground, warms the air and is then retained by the glass
     from escaping again .
greenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.   The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
     have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4 . In case of carbon dioxide ( CO^) :
     a.  Emission sources :
         Most of anthropogenic C0_ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
                         * .     . *
         ( around 5 Gtons of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
         contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
         biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
         the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
         of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
         CO2 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
         increased in 25 years , since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
         more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
         Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to emission
         with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each , followed by gas with
          less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
          It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
         been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
 * 1 Gton * 109 tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 14
The share of CC^ emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :
                COg emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                           and as X of world total
                                          1950         1965     I    1980
I         Region              | Mt /y* I    X    Mt / y* I   X I Mt /y* I X I
| North America               I 723    I 44,7 I 1003     I 32,1 | 1380|26,7 I
I URSS and Eastern Europe     I 291    I 18,0 I 750      1 24,0 | 12511 24,2 I
( China                       I 23     I 1,4 I 178       1 5,7 1 439 | 8,5 I
I Western Europe              I 379    I 23,4 I 643      1 20,6 ! 853 | 16,5 !
| Japan , Australia           I *5     I 2,8 I 137       1 4,4 | 300 ) 5,8 I
iDeveloping Countries         I 92     I 5*7 I 250 1 8,0 | 631 1 12,2         I
lOthers ( worldwide gas       I 63     I   3*9 I 163 1 5,2 ! 310 | 6,0        I
Iflaring , bunkers )          I        !       !          1      1       1    I
I                             I         I      I          1      1       1    I
| World total                 I 1618 I 100 I 3126 1 loo i 51701100            I
I                             I        !       !          1      1       I    I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle "
            US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of CC^ emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 15 -
The trends of COj world emission from different fossil fuels for the
period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US OOE / ER-0239
report referred to above ) :
           5000 [               '              1         .. I.
                                                     « * •    * • –
           4000 _                   ^             **              -
           3000 _
        S 2000
       |o 1000
           îooo U
        s1 600800 Н: J?
            800 \-
                                                                  î
        £         Υ                         ·>
        X 400 Γ                      .. X
        o                         . »»' •/
        °          -           °Py
                              'y
            200 -            S
                      y•
                     y*
            100 u_i_i_i_
                1950          1960           1970          1980
                                          Year
The steep increase of yearly COg emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels . Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
    I Fuel               1 1 985 CC>2 emissions in |
    I                    1 mi Ilion tons carbon /y |
    I gas                1               807             1
    I oi l               1              2189             I
    I coal               I              2181             I
    I gas flaring I                       52             I
    I Total              I              5229             I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 16 -
        Per capita CO ^ emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
        are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
        I         Country            | Per capita C(>2 emissions (tons I
        I                            I of : arbon per inhabitant )     I
        I      United States         |               4,9               I
        I      German Dem . Rep .    |               4,9               I
        I      Canada                |               4,4               I
        I      Czechoslovakia        |               4,1                I
        I      Australia             |               3,9                I
        I      Soviet Union          |               3,3               I
        I      Poland                |               3,0                I
        I      Belgium               |               3,0                I
        I      Germany , Fed . Rep . |               2,9                I
        I      United Kingdom        |               2,5                !
        I      Netherlands           ¡               2,5                I
        I      France                 |              2,0                I
        I      Japan                 |               1,9                 I
        I      Italy                  I              1,5                 I
        I      Spain                  I              1,4                 I
        I      China                 |               0,5                I
        I      Brazil                |               0,3                 I
        I      India                 |               0,1                I
        I      World average         |               1,0                 I
        Calculated from : Smith, I.M. ( 1988) : Ct^ and climate change;
        Draft technical review, EIA Coal Research , London , and UN
        statistical data
    b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
        Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
        COg has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
        There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
        was around 275-285 ppm . The rate of concentration increase for Ct^
        has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
        year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
*
  1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                         17 -
         C02 concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
         emissions , mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation , on
         the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans *
         and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
         emissions and this leads to more C02 stored in the atmosphere .
5.   In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans , air conditioning, refrigerators , solvents,
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
         to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
         by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
         note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
         higher than that of C02, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
         trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than C02' on a
         molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
         of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100
         years ) .
*
   1 ppb = part per billion * 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 18 -
6. In case of methane ( CH ,) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
       paddy fields , natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
       Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH 4,
       cycle is not well known .
       Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
       sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
       shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )
       Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50 )
       Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
       Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
       Oceans                                 10 (+/- 3 )
       Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
       Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
       Han-Made Sources (million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc .) 75 (+/-  35 )
       Rice paddies                           70 (+/-  30 )
       Biomass burning                        70 (+/-  40 )
       Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/-  25 )
       Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                  D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 19 -
b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
    Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
    0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
    northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983 ). Average yearly increase
    over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
In case of nitrous oxide (N^O) :
a.  Emission sources :
    Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
    fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
    seem also to give a significant contribution .
    Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
    Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
    is most difficult .     It is estimated that the overall emissions are
    as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
    brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
    authors ) :
    Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
    Oceans and estuaries                    2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
    Natural soils                           6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
    Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
     Fossil fuel combustion                 4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
    Biomass burning                         0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
     Fertilized soils                       0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
    Cultivated naturai soils                1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
     ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases"
                D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 20 -
     b.   Atmospheric concentration trends :
          N^O atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
          290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .  The present rate of increase is
          around 0,25% per year .
 8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
     greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
     natural cycles . Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
     quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
     observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .
 9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
     future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
     those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
     assumptions .
10 . It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
      From this point of view , uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
      It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for CC^, 25% for CFC 's , 20% for CH^, ^0 and 0^
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 21
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83 ) = 13%,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons = 19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3% , 1990 = 5.4% , 2000 = 7.1% . Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20/ GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .  However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                           - 22 -
The results are summarized in next figure .
          Commitment to Future Warming in the WR1 Scenario*
              WU Sctauk»
              WUSctauio.
              n Hl(h EmWoni
              H Baae Cue
                    Modest PoUdcs
              fc>| Slow Build-Up
                                                                    r
    °l-■“––rri–T–I
     I960                2000
                                    1 ■Hl r0 -1-
                                            3025 I           3050 I  2075
                                    □ AU    Ài i À         k      k
                                                                  À       COj within the forecast period
           Approximate year of commitment to warming
           equal to 13 to 43 dqrm centigrade above pre¬
           industrial temperahire.
           Approximate year of commitment to warming
           equal to 13 to 43 degrees centigrade above 1960
           temperatures.
Source : Kintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
              WRI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                  -2 3-
                                                 Energy Policies in the WR1 Scenarios
                                                                         Related Energy Model Parameter Value
Каве Сам Зсоадло
  'Tlttsmtas-Aft-Uaual/' she inertial model of growth and
  change in the world csicrfry industry
  No pci«es to slow carbon dicedtie emissions
  Mirjmal             fo rar-pro’'^ end-use efficiency                   (Rate of change - 0.8% per year)
  Mcdetf sttmuhrtO for synh.reb aevifopnient                             (Final Pricc - S3 5-£4.25 per CJ in 2005)
  Mintóuì stiùmius for dcvel&pmcnt ol solar energy                       (Fina) Pricc » $1550 per CJ in 2)25)
  gyStKTiS
  No policy to limit tropical deforestation or to encourage
  reforestation
  Mim&'ui cnvifcnmental cesia includcd in pricf of energy                ($0J0 per CJ for coal; $1.00 per CJ for tynfucU)
High Emia^kra.0 Sœti&rio
• Accekrateti growth ir energy use Is encouraged
• No potjcxni to efow carton dioxide emissions
° No sUmuius to improve end-use efficiency                               (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coal                              (Rate of improvement - 0 75% per year)
• Streng stimulus for svnfuels development                               (Final Price - $2. 75-5350 per CJ in 1995)
• No stimulus for derelopiaient of solår energy systems                  (Final Price - $20 per CJ in 2040)
• Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
  agriculture
• Token environmental costs included in price of energy                  ($0.15 per C] for coal; $0.50 per C) for synfucls)
Modest Polices Scenario
• Strong stimulus for im proved end-use efftdency                        (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
• Modest stimulus foi solar energy                                       (Final price - $15.00 per Cj in 2025)
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
  protection more intensive rather ihan extensive
  agriculture encouraged
• Substantia] environmental costs imposed on energy                       ($0.60 per G] for cool; $1 .50 per GJ for synfuels)
  pnees to discourage soud fuel use and encourage
  fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
• Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency                   (Rate of improvement - 1.5% per year)
• Rap»d introduction of solar energy encouraged                           (Final Price • $12.00 per Cj m 2000)
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
  protection
• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                    ($1.20 per GJ for coa); $3.00 per C) for aynfuels)
  discourage soitd fuel use ano encourage fuel-switching
                 Total Emissions of C02 in the WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)
                   r–––-         1              .               – - 1        '■ ■ 1 1    1,1        1 "*    11    i
                   ]
              32 J                                                                            ■
                               WR! Sean*rt«                                              y?
                               H:gh Emissions                                          y
              “            ÀbutClX                                                    /
              ^            if- Modes! Policirs                                  y
                           © Slow Budd-up
        w     U.                                                        J*
        i
        I *•                                           y
        1 "■                                   /
        ê     14 '
                2«                                            '            *          --
                     -,-1-1-1-
                 1975                 2CC0             2025             2050                 2073
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 24 -
By a different approach . Dr. R. A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK, has recently tried to
link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
probabilities to the possible outcome .
The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                           RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 tN°C)
    (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
    (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY           EQUILIBRIUM|(TRAN8IENT) (C ) CLIMATIC
                                                                         CUMAT,C CHANGE
                                                                                     CHANGE
             - ïï'à 2< *Z9J >_ _
             -
                                              e.0 "
                                                    . J2.5J5J
                                                      J2.5J5._t ) _ __
                                              6.0 " "                                     p
                                                 .
                                                       -              r – rp . 'r,
                                                                BEST GUESS 1 : .45
    j-                                              b             _ *_ :           T   \ T
    dfc-T+T-r-±n-ir-3K
      800      700      1 800
                          8Ó0 J      500      ^2T\1695
                                                        J  - - 2005
                                                        1695 2005
                                                                 » 2015
                                                                    2015 2025
                                                                         2025 2035
                                                                                2035 2045
                                                                                     2045
                                                                                           -
    t
      EQUIVALENT CO.CONC
    ‘EQUIVALENT  C02* C0NC
                        I
                            ((ppmv)
                              ppmv
                                 I
                                   ) 1
                                             /Æ \       \                     •      yEAR
                                                                                     YEAR
                        I        I   \ SÿffJ                                  1
                                                  + 2016
                                     y        ^ +• -2026
                                                      2026
                                                                          ^^1
                                                  “ 2036
    ÉÊÊmr/                   S'*
                                                  -M4S
                                                  +2045
                                                   1YEAR
                                                    YEAR
                                                                                   \         \
    (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
  emissions
-   T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
  increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CO2 concentration
- “ transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
  due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
  been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 25 -
         The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
         above mentioned evaluation :
         ■- Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which
          we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
          outside this range is less than 1% .
        - The "best-guess" range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
          probability of warming within this range is 45% .
        - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
          best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 .   The presently available climate models predict ( with various degrees of
                                                                     (1 )
       uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts       :
       - Global-Mean Surface Warming (very probable ). For a doubling of
         atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
         the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
         expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C . The most significant
         uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course , the actual
         rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
         rate of greenhouse gases , natural fluctuations in the climate system,
         and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
         climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
       - Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).    Increased heating
         of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
         greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
         average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
         decreases in rainfall .
       - Polar Winter Surface Warming ( very probable ).  As the sea ice boundary
         is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
         surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
         water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
         surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
  (1 )
       Source : NRC ( 1987 ); Current Issues in Climate Change , National Research
                 Council , Washington DC , USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 26 -
     - Summer Continental Dryness /Warming ( likely in the long term). Several
        studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods / and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course / these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ). As the climate
        warms/ the increased poleward penetration of warm/ moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects, it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ). Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere .  The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that "the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects (processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO , 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 27 -
     As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "CO^ and other
     greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
     Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
           Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain, it is now
           believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
           produce a significant change during the 21st century .
         “ ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
           50 years .
         - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
           temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
           by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 . Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on         and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        "The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
         global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years , while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C , sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     . heating and therefore expanding the ocean water ;
     . melting of mountain glaciers ;
     . melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica;
     . a possible (but unlikely) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28 -
     A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
     avai labié .
     The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
     seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1 / 5 meter (Toronto Conference/ June
     1988 ).
     A significant rise in sea level would :
     . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
     . accelerate coastal erosion;
     . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
     . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 . Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .  This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Water Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes . As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption;
     . power génération ;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the CO^ atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 29 -
into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .
The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :
. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
  regional level ;
. length of growing season;
. number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change" view : emphasises the significance of gradual
  increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
  long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
  agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
  unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
  from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
  flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
summarised below ^ :
"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
   plant growth rates ;
     Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987 ) ; The Impact of Climate
     Variations on Agriculture , Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
     and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 30
 - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
 - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality ;
 - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature , the magnitude and
location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
  levels are high latitude , semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
  areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
                                                      (1 )
  USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen         et al , show
  reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats ,
  due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs , changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 31
     In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
     give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
     effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
     about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
     detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
     systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19 . Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of CC^ on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
       . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
          forest ecosystems ;
       . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
       . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
       . disturbance of timber - and woodproducts markets and trade ;
       . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
          ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
          reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health .  It could in particular :
        . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
          temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
        . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies ( extreme
          events );
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 32
      Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
      tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
      face health problems .
21 .  Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
      The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
        . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
        . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
        . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct /
          resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity;
        . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
          reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
          could migrate ).
      The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
      thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
      Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
      coupled , both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
      capable of being modified by climate .
      However / it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
      fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
      overfishing .
 II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRANEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
 Introduction
22 .  Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
      équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
      déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall / 1863; ArrheniuS / 1896;
      Chamberlin / 1899 ).
      Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du C0£ par un
      réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 33 -
    Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
    milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
    tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
    Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
    l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
    Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
    des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the " Villach " conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract CC^
       rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on " CO^ and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change " ( Vi l lach-Aust ri a , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bel lagio-Ita ly , 9-13 November 1987 );
    . The Brundtland Commission' s report
     „ The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere " ( Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
     its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
     Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
     this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere, implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         34 -
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
     Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
     Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
     ■- Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended , globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
      - Far-reaching impacts wilt be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     " A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                                 35
Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of C02 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of C02 is an imperative
goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce C02 emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
Reduce C02 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly, the
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
modifications in supplies .
Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally ,
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency, a
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
 ( i ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels, ( ii ) reviewing
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
 related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                    36
   proliferation . If these problems can be solved/ through improved
   engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
   could have a role to play in lowering COg emissions .
 - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
                                                                         î
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and
   approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made
   through reduction of fossil fuel combustion , to reduce ( i > emissions
   of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
   environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
   tropospheric ozone ; (iii ) other non-Cl^ greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
   the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
   use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations ,
   Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
   framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
   convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
   international exchange of information and support of research and
   monitoring , and should provide a framework for specific protocols
   for addressing particular issues, taking into account existing
   international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
   International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
   in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
   Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 37 -
Establish a World Atmosphere Fund, financed in part by a levy on
fossil fuel consumption of industrialised countries , to mobilize a
substantial part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government -to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
Increase significantly the funding for research , development and
transfer of information on renewable energy , if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
agreements .
Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Developments ( WCED ) report , " Our Common Future ", including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts , monitoring , research and analysis related to the changing
atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
         and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
         Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" ( to be published in
         the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
         conferences mentioned under paragraph 26, and other future meetings
         dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
         establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
         changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         environment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation , already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 39 -
     ~ the Second World Climate Conference/ Geneva / June 1990;
     - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above (and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist in :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b ) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 . Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     In this respect / it is worth stressing the global / complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
      ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) ;
         "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change/ including policy responses to it / and a number of
          other issues / above all in the field of environment and development .
          This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
          impact by region/ and hence by country/ of climatic change and the
          extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
          international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 40 -
           The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
           ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
           of the difference in regional impact should not / however/ be allowed
           to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
           Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
           regions into "winners" or " losers". This is not a "zero-sum" game .
           Unless action is taken , it could be a negative sum game of highly
           uncertain proportions ."
 III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
 Introduction
29 .  Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
      international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
      the greenhouse issue .
      Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview, could
      include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
             emissions );
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
             to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
             preventive measures ).
30 .  Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
      ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of COg emissions );
      (b ) those which may be taken at a European level ( e.g. planning for
            water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 41
     ( c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
           to be adopted, taking account of ( a ) and of particular European
           conditions ).
     The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Heasures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
           increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
           ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
           will happen , when , where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
           uncertain as the range of the " when" and "where" becomes smaller .
           Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
           could consider .
     ( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
           - which danger , when and where , one has to face and what
             consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
              large are to be expected ;
           - how to implement at best the measures decided ;
     Therefore , the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two .
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
                                                                                \
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 42 -
 Research activities
32 . Already since 1980 , the Commission of the European Communities is
     carrying out a research programme in Climatology , whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
     resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations , the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops , forests , water
           resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased CO^ and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - A3 -
     ( A ) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
           upon agriculture and industry (the impacts of the alternance of
           droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources, the impacts
           of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
           agriculture and industry ).
     ( 5 ) The milting of Alpine glaciers .
     ( 6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
           probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
           affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
     ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community ,
           due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
           consequences for agriculture , consequences for costline regions of
           the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
3A . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution ,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as CC^ is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&O programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 44 -
35 . Elimination of Cf^ at the source could eventually become a new domain of
     resarch .    No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
     avai lable .
     New directions for research in this field should be explored .
36. Moreover, the management of the COg problem implies both the definition
     of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
     objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
     how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
     reduction .    The implementation action will have to determine the
     economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction, the
     allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
     institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
     System Analysis can , in principle , provide the adequate basis for
     looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
     possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
     Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
     environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
     Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
     systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
     The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
     should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
     energy related CCg emissions reduction measures and programmes .
     The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
     costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
     on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37 . Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
     in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
     This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
     concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
     greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
     objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 45 -
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including, in case of CO^,
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39 * Carbon dioxide CCO^> emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , CO^ emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at CO^ emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO .,
        There are several types of technical energy related measures that
        could curb CO^ emissions , as listed below .
        Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
        physical potential of CC^ emission reduction of a given measure and
        its economic viability .
        The following technical measures , which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce CO^ emissions from
        carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs , better insulation , more efficient cars , electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                               - 46 -
    - improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration,
      introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
      high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD, etc .);
b . Energy Supply
    - fuel switching to less CO^ emitting fuels (the relation of
      emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
      the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
      follows : 121 , 100, 88, 58 );
    - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
      windpower , hydro, geothermal , photovoltaics );^
    - increased use of nuclear power .
c . Biotic sources
    - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
      cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
      the CO^ atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
    - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
      technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
      be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
    - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
      forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
      carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing COg emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 47 -
   System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
   exploring consequences of economic -energy-environmental related
   measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
   information on the feasibility of measures to achieve COg reduction
   goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
   technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
   objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
   a . Conserve forest resources
        - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
          developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
          cause further deforestation ;
        - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
          forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
          sustainable basis ;
        - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
        - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
        - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
          utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
        - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
          tropical regions ;
        - promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,
    c . Natural ecosystem protection
        - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
           relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 48 -
40 . CFCs «lissions
     Possible preventative actions are :
     a . Constrain use
     b . Constrain production
     c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, N^O emissions
     Actions which could be considered are :
     a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
     b. Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
     c . Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
     d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
         cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
     e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
         N^O release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 . The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
     greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
     feasible , could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
     measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 . Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
     impacts in long-term planning , most likely at the regional and national
     levels .
     Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
     if it is believed that :
     - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
        to in the short term ;
     - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
        effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
        now , it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
        atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 49 -
     At this stage it is not possible to cover* even in qualitative and
     simple way* all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
     in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
     However* it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
     measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
44 . Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
     - Sea walls / flood barriers .
     - National flood insurance programmes .
     - Construction of reservoirs (to combat increased salinity).
     - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
     - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
     - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 . Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
     impacts on agriculture are :
     - More efficient use of fertilisers .
     - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production ;
     - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
     - Changes to policies supporting land management * such as soil erosion
        control * water management * etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
46 . All the above measures * both as regards preventive action and as regards
     planned adaptation * should also be developed to take into account the
     needs of the developing countries * and how the Community 's development
     aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
     the greenhouse effect . In particular :
     a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
         prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
         deforestation* conserving wetlands * coastal ecosystems and the
         genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 50 -
b) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 51
 IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 .  The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
      protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
      that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
      application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision ,
      Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 .  The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
      renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
      deplete the ozone layer .   The Protocol should be revised so that the
      CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
      recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .  The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
      possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
      the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
      to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
      include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
      greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
      programmes .
50 .  Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
      substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the feasibility ,
      costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
      emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
      international debate on the issue .
      The main areas of such programme should be :
         - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
            in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
         - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
            implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
            and technologies ;
                                                                                t
         - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
            to possible strategic targets for COg emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 52 -
         A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
         this frame .
         The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
       - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
         probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
         benefits .
       - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
         unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
         decision analysis exercise .
     The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
     energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
     policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
     exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
     The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
     research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
     climatology and energy .
     Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem / the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy /
     involving in particular developing countries / towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                          53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of C0£ reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit        emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     envi ronment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
          which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
          for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
          precariously low , coastal states , etc . Such maping would form a
          reference basis against which policies could be evaluated . It would
          certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
          developing countries .
       - xhe greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
          account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
          for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
          modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
          in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                         54 τ
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         increased, in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                   - 55
                 ANNEX
Recent aajor events on the greenhouse issue
                                            f
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of C0-, and of other greenhouse gases In climate variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP, WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
       long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
       as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
       structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
       planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
       without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
       longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
       greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
       global climate in the next century ."
      "While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
       actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
       affected by governmental policies on energy conservation , use of
       fossil fuels , and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
       little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
       magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
       atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
       ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 57
      "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
       into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
       policies on social and economic development , environmental
       programmes, and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
      ■Public information efforts should be increased by international
       agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
       change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
       this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
      "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
       regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
       are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless , the understanding of the
       greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
       policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
       effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
       should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on " C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC , DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 .    It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric COj and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue, mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
         dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
         intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
         closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                         58
       - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
           necessary exchange of information between policy analysts / decision
           makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   CVillach ~ Austria/ 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy/
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to " start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document / the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      ■ Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
        after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
        of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
        emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
        greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
        Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
        energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
        efficiency/ reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing COg
        emissions .   Research and development on alternative (non-fossil )
        energy systems must be greatly intensified .
        ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
        Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation /
        e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
        Forest Action Plan / 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
        because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture /
 ---pagebreak---                               - 59 -
energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
( 4 ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; N20
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices , etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed in terms of CC^ equivalence ) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these , regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 60 -
( 7) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities ,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes , atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP (World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / GEMS ( Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
   monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
   changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU , UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP ) is an important
component of the WCP , as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak---                                        61 -
D. The Brundtland Commission 's report
   The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
   the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
   body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
   the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
   promoting a sustainable development .
   Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
   Session in the fall of 1987 .
    This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
    international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
    It is suggested to consider :
    "- improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
     - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,
       mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
     - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
       of the causative gases ; and
     - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
       climate changes and rising sea level ."
     The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
     international convention on "management policies for all
     environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E. The European Parliament resolution
   The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
   resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of COg in
   the atmosphere :
   " The European Parliament
     - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
       research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
       of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
       B2-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy/ Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment /
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth’s average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning/ intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up/ which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator / will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and , in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution , provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since , contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former ;
2.  Calls upon the Commission , in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges, thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 63
   3. Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
       from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
       in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
       purification respectively;
   4.  Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation, for which the
       Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
. 5.   Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
       put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
       countries ;
 . 6.  Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
       research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
       especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
       ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
   7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
       essential requirement for climatic stability;
   8.  Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
       the Northern hemisphere , which are largely responsible for
       jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
       given access to the latest technological know-how;
   9.  Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
       quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
       directly responsible - about the implications of the human
       activities in question , while explaining the need for effective
       measures ;
  10 . Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
       climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
       a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
  11 . Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
       its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---                                    1
                 Programa de trabalho da Comissão sobre
            a análise das opções de acção para fazer face
              aos riscos associados ao " efeito de estufa "
I. CONTEÚDO DO PROGRAMA
   0 presente programa deverá fornecer os elementos necessários para
   determinar   o possível papel da Comunidade e dos Estados-membros
   na       definição e promoção das medidas necessárias para fazer
   face aos riscos associados ao efeito de estufa , no âmbito das
   instâncias internacionais adequadas .
   Tendo em conta este objectivo , o presente programa de trabalho
   abordará os seguintes temas :
   A.  Identificação das opções de acção para prevenir / reduzir as
       emissões dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito de estufa
       Serão definidas as medidas necessárias para atingir reduções estra ¬
       tégicas das emissões dos diferentes gases responsáveis pelo efeito
       de estufa , o que implica , para cada gás , a determinação exacta
       das opções disponíveis para redução das emissões , do nível de
       redução das emissões associado a cada opção , e do conjunto de
       medidas necessárias para atingir reduções estratégicas . 0 potencial
       para a prevenção / redução das emissões será considerado para os
       seguintes sectores :
 ---pagebreak---                                  ?:
                             - 2 -
   - produção de energia ;
   - consumo de energia ( incluindo transportes );
   - produções industriais ;
   - utilização de produtos ;
   - actividades agrícolas .
   Será necessária uma abordagem apropriada que tome em consideração
   as diferentes situações especificas de cada pais ou grupo de paises ,
   nomeadamente no que diz respeito a :
   - nível de desenvolvimento económico;
   - políticas de energia em vigor ;
   - geografia .
B. Implicações das opções Dara redução das emissões
   A opção de redução das emissões será analisada quanto aos seguintes
   pontos :
   - implicações técnicas e industriais ;
   - implicações económicas e financeiras ;
   - implicações políticas , institucionais e sociais .
C. Desenvolvimento de um quadro de análise para tomada de decisões
   Proceder-se-á ao desenvolvimento de um quadro para estruturação
   das informações disponíveis sobre todos os aspectos relativos
   ao problema do efeito de estufa , de forma a permitir a identi ¬
   ficação das eventuais vantagens ( em termos de redução de risco
   de mudanças climáticas , etc .), correspondentes às diferentes
   opções de acção . 0 quadro tomará em consideração os seguintes
   pontos :
   - emissões e reduções de emissões ;
   - implicações de tais reduções ;
   - dados científicos disponíveis sobre as vantagens potenciais
     de controlos de emissões alternativas .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 3 -
   0 quadro será concebido de forma a ter em conta as incertezas
   sobre as emissões , a eficácia dos controlos e as mudanças cli ¬
   máticas e seus efeitos , e irá permitir a identificação dos
    resultados mais prováveis das diferentes acções .
   0 quadro permitirá ainda examinar as implicações de um adiamento
   das acções . Através da estruturação do problema e da identificação
   das áreas-chave de incerteza em relação às quais os efeitos são
   mais sensiveis , o quadro fornecerá um importante instrumento
   para avaliar as acções e permitirá concentrar as futuras investi - ^
   gações em questões-chave de decisão .                                /
                                                                      y
                                                                     /
D. Avaliação das possíveis vantagens das diferentes opções de acção
   através de um quadro de análise de decisões e do estabelecimento
   dos cenários climáticos e de impacto resultantes da aplicação
   das opções de controlo das emissões
   0 quadro será utilizado para determinar os possíveis resultados
   das opções de redução das emissões alternativas e do seu calendário
   ( cenários ), indicando igualmente a probabilidade relativa das
   vantagens conseguidas .
E. Identificação e avaliação de medidas de adaptação necessárias
   para os diferentes cenários referidos no ponto D.
   Apesar da aplicação de acções de controlo das emissões , continuam
   a existir riscos residuais associados a emissões passadas ou futuras
   para a atmosfera . Será, por conseguinte , necessário identificar
   medidas de adaptação ( isto é , acções de protecção das pessoas ,
   bens e agricultura ) de forma a combater tais riscos . Proceder-
   -se-á à identificação da amplitude e localização dos riscos-chave
   residuais e serão avaliadas , em termos de despesas e tempo, as
   implicações das diferentes medidas de adaptação, que deverão
    ser        prioritárias de forma a assegurar uma redução máxima
   dos riscos residuais com os recursos disponíveis , dando especial
   atenção às principais áreas de risco .
 ---pagebreak---                                                          - 4 -
                       II . LISTA PORMENORIZADA DAS ACTIVIDADES
                            A . execução deste programa requer , entre outras , as seguintes acti -
                            vidades :
                            A.    Opções de previsão e redução das emissões
                                  i    Preparação da previsão de emissões para cada gás respon¬
                                       sável pelo efeito de estufa . Tais emissões devem ser
                                       analisadas por ( a ) região e por Cb ) agrupamentos políticos
                                       estratégicos e económicos .
                                  ii   Determinação dos factores ( para além da aplicação do
                                       controlo ) susceptiveis de influenciar emissões futuras .
                                       Cálculo da sua probabilidade e desenvolvimento de cenários
                                       de emissões alternativas .
                                  iii  Identificação das opções disponíveis de controlo das
     •'     ,/l>
  fe 'ÿ ■                              emissões para cada gás responsável pelo efeito de estufa .
  yv ;?. v%;>
                                       Avaliação da amplitude das reduções potenciais para cada
                                       cenário de emissão .
           Ь:;
    p/ ■
                            B.    Avaliação das implicações das opções de controlo das emissões
        i.
                                  i    Determinação de viabilidade , custo e calendário de aplicação
    I.                                 de cada medida de redução das emissões .
   jt? *       ' ..ï
                                  ii   Avaliação dos efeitos económicos e sociais .
  ife5
 ü                                iii  Avaliação dos efeitos de distribuição ( a ) em cada pais ,
 Kl                                    ( b ) entre países e ( c ) entre agrupamentos políticos e
 11                  .                 estratégi eos .
 Il i
                            C.    Estabelecimento de um quadro para integração das informações
 Kat                              adquiridas ao longo do programa de trabalho
P
fe'4
 ---pagebreak---                           - 5 -
   0 quadro deverá ser elaborado de modo a :
   - apresentar as implicações de acções alternativas , incluindo
      os custos e benefícios potenciais ;
   - indicar as implicações da tomada de acção em momentos diferentes;
   - indicar a força de possiveis decisões ( sobre estratégias
      de controlo ou de adaptação ), tendo em conta as incertezas
      das previsões e dos dados científicos disponíveis ;
   - reservar um espaço para a continuação da investigação, indis ¬
      pensável para apoiar as decisões que terão de ser tomadas .
D. Avaliação das estratégias de controlo de emissões
   i     Determinação das possiveis vantagens alcançadas através
         das estratégias de controlo das emissões . Este trabalho
         exige uma revisão critica dos mecanismos de ligação entre
         as concentrações dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito de
         estufa e a subida da temperatura do globo , incidindo
         especialmente nos sistemas de "feed back ", momentos de
         aplicação e implicações para os climas regionais .
   ii    Preparação de uma avaliação daprobabi lidade de previsões
         alternativas e suas implicações com base numa revisão
         critica . Este trabalho deverá integrar os pareceres dos
         principais peritos e a determinação das probabilidades
         práticas que traduzam a incerteza dos diferentes resultados .
   iii   Com base nessas informações e nas informações obtidas
         sobre as reduções das emissões ( A. ) e as suas implicações
         ( B. ), o quadro de decisões desenvolvido em C. será utilizado
         para avaliar os custos , benefícios e outras implicações
         das opções alternativas de controlo das emissões .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 6 -
      E.  Avaliação das medidas de adaptação
          i     Revisão das implicações dos diferentes niveis de aquecimento
                nas inf ra-est ruturas e fornecimento de alimentos na Europa ;
                identificação de outras implicações-chave . Avaliação
                dos efeitos sobre outros agrupamentos politicos e económicos .
          ii    Revisão das opções que podem ser aplicadàs para responder
                às potenciais alterações ( i ) na Europa (por ex . novas
                variedades de colheitas , diferentes práticas de planea¬
                mento , etc .).
          iii   Avaliação dos custos e beneficios de medidas de adaptação
                alternativas , com base na avaliação discutida em D. e
                utilizando o quadro desenvolvido em C. ; avaliação da
                probabilidade de tais medidas se mostrarem eficazes ,
                tendo em conta os efeitos previstos .
III . ORIENTAÇÕES PARA APLICAÇÃO DO PROGRAMA
      A.  Na execução deste programa a Comissão terá inteiramente em
          conta as outras actividades relevantes dentro da Comunidade
          e a nivel mundial , tais como :
          - o programa de investigação da CE      sobre climatologia e perigos
             naturais ;
          - os resultados de recentes conferências internacionais ( tais
             como a Conferência sobre Alterações Atmosféricas , Toronto ,
             Junho 88 );
          - o grupo de trabalho UNEP/ WMO sobre alterações climáticas ;
          etc .
          Para esse fim , a Comissão estabelecerá uma cooperação
          adequada com as principais organizações que se dedicam a
           estas actividades .
 ---pagebreak---                               - 7 -
     B.   Com a assistência do Comité referido no artigo 1Q da Decisão ,
          a Comissão definirá os processos e etapas concretas para este
          programa , bem como as informações a serem fornecidas pelos Estados-
          -membros .
          As organizações e departamentos governamentais competentes
          nos Estados-membros serão associados a este trabalho através
          do Comité acima referido .
IV .  FINANCIAMENTO DO PROGRAMA
     Os fundos necessários para a execução do programa foram calculados
     em 6 milhões de ECUs .
 ---pagebreak---                                        Projecto
                                           de
                Resolução do Conselho relativa ao " efeito de estufa
                                    s a Comunidade "
0 Conselho das Comunidades Europeias ,
Tendo em conta o Tratado que institui a Comunidade Económica Europeia ,
Tendo em conta o projecto de resolução da Comissão,
Considerando que o Tratado que institui a Comunidade Económica Europeia, com a
redacçlo que lhe foi dada pelo Acto Único Europeu, prevê o desenvolvimento e a
aplicação de uma política comunitária em matéria de ambiente e que esse mesmo
Tratado prevê que a Comunidade tenha em conta , na elaboração da sua acção neste
domínio, nomeadamente os dados científicos e técnicos disponíveis e as vantagens
e custos que podem decorrer da acção ou da ausência de acç&o;
Considerando que a presente resolução se inspira nas considerações contidas na
Resolução relativa a um programa de acção das Comunidades Europeias em matéria
de ambiente ( 2 ), de 19 de Outubro de 1987, nomeadamente a oportunidade de actuar
 ao nível adequado,' bem como a necessidade de coordenar as act1 vidades ao nível
 Internacional , avaliar as vantagens e os custos das acções previstas e preparar
 a acção, sob o ponto de vista técnico e político, de forma apropriada ;
 Considerando que os dados cientificos disponiveis indicam , nomeadamente os
 resultados dos programas de pesquisa em matéria de ambiente da Comunidade ,
 que a composição da atmosfera está a ser objecto de alterações signifi ¬
 cativas provocadas pelas actividades humanas e que com base nos modelos
 climatolôgicos disponiveis , tal facto poderia implicar , dentro de um
 determinado prazo , alterações climáticas devido ao chamado efeito de
 estufa e consequentemente , um impacte importante no ambiente , no individuo
 e nas actividades respectivas ;
  ( 1 ) JO n° C 328 de 7.12.1987 , P.1 .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 2 -
Consi derando que , tendo em conta a natureza e a dimensão dos riscos provocados
pelo efeito de estufa, urge proceder a uma análise das possibilidades de acção
destinadas è prevenção ou redução desses riscos ;
Considerando que , por ocasião de conferências internacionais recentes , be regi *
tou um amplo consenso rslati vamente è necessidade urgente de prever medidas
destinadas a reduzir as emissões dos gases responsáveis pelo efeito de estufa ;
Considerando que , tendo em conta a complexidade do problema " efeito de estufa "
e as implicações consideráveis e diversas quer desse efeito quer das medidas
previsíveis para evitar ou minimizar as consequências respectivas , é necessária
uma produnda análise prévia das opções políticas possíveis , adoptadas mediante
metodologias apropriadas que tenham nomeadamente em conta , de forma adequada ,
as incertezas que se mantêm relati vamente a diversos aspectos do cssunto em ca^
sa ;
Considerando que é da maior importância que a Comunidade e os Estado-membros rei
pectlvos se encontrem em condições de prestar um contributo fundamental para a
análise e elaboração das eventuais decisões políticas a adoptar nos contextos
internacionais adequados , a fim de actuarem , da forma mais eficaz , contra os ris
COB de alterações climáticas ,
Acolhe favoravelmente a comunicação da Comissão relativa ao " efeito de estuda e
a Comunidade " e aprova as principais concLusões e recomendações nela contidas ;
Declara qua a Comunidade deveria prestar atenção crescente aos riscos das poss_1_
veis alterações climáticas , associados ao efeito de estufa , e que devéria contrj
buir , de forma substancial , para fomentar a análise e o debate relativament às
medidas possíveis destinadas a obstara esses riscos ;
Acolhe favoravelmente a iniciativa da Comissão de lançamento de um programa de
 trabalho relativo à avaliação das opções políticas destinadas a fazer face aos
 riscos associados ao efeito de estufa e aprova os objectivos desse programa ;
 ---pagebreak---       • -?                            - 3 -
Insta os Estado8-membro8 a cooperarem actívamente com a Comissão na execução
do programa de trabalho acima referido e a coordenarem as actividades respecti.
vas no domínio do efeito de estufa no âmbito desse programa ;
Insta a Comissão a apresentar ao COnselho e ao Parlamento Europeu um relatório
sobre a evolução registada / em meados de 1990 / e um relatório final sobre os
resultados obtidos através desse programa e sobre as conclusóes retiradas no
final de 1991 .