CELEX: 51987PC0502R(01)
Language: en
Date: 1988-01-20
Title: Proposal for a COUNCIL DECISION concerning Community action in the field of forecasting and assessment in science and technology (FAST) (submitted by the Commission)

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COM (87) 502
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 ---pagebreak--- COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
 REVISED VERSION                               COM(87 ) 502 final /2
 THIS DOCUMENT CANCELS AND                    Brussels , 20 January 1988
 REPLACES DOCUMENT
 COMC87 ) 502 final
 CONCERNS ALL THE LANGUAGES
                                    Proposai for a
                                   COUNCIL DECISION
                    concerning Community action in the field of
                     forecasting and assessment in science and
                                       technology
                                         ( FAST )
                            ( submitted by the Commission )
 ---pagebreak---                                   EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
           The present communication and the proposal for decision in the
           Annex concern the continuation of FAST activities .        FAST is the
           research programme for forecasting of long term changes in the
           field of science and technology and assessment of their
           implications and consequences for the future development of the
           Member States .         The programme aims to contribute to the
           definition of priorities for the Community 's RTD     policy .
           The FAST programme was approved in 1978 for an experimental phase
           of five years ( 1978-1983 ).       As the results of this phase were
           considered positive and worthwhile , a second FASJ programme was
           agreed in July 1983 .        The second programme will corne to an end
           on 31st December , 1987 .
 I        FORECASTING OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF FAST
 1.       The Purpose of Forecasting
         The essential role of forecasting is to examine the possible and
         probable evolution of science and technology and study its
         implications and consequences for the socio-economic development
         of a particular country , region .... In this respect forecasting is
         an indispensable tool in the elaboration of any science and
         technological policy .
2.       The Achievements of the FAST Programme
         FAST I     ( 1978-1983 ) was the originator of the preparatory work
         which gave rise to the ESPRIT programme .        It also contributed to
         the elaboration of a European policy on biotechnology and to the
         creation of CUBE ( Concertat ion Unit for Biotechnology in Europe ).
         Tor its part ,     FAST II not only contributed to the identification
         and    definition   of   certain  research activities  included   in the
         second " Framework Programme for Scientific and Technological
         Activities of the Community ", but its achievements also resulted
         in:
             the assessment of the importance of the growth in services and
             " immaterial " technologies during the next 15-20 years , and an
             understanding of why success in " Europe of the Services” is so
             important and represents a challenge to European innovation and
             the economic policy ;
1
    P rD :   Research and Technological Development
 ---pagebreak---                                           -2-
       .  the    alerting     of   researchers ,    industrialists    and  public
          officials to the fact that better nan-machine communication in
          complex systems will in the future be one of the central
          challenges_ a_t _the         heart   of   technological    development .
          Henceforth errors in this field will be of major consequence to
          the increasing vulnerability of the systems present              in our
          society ;
      .   The identification of the convergence and integration of
          technologies as one of the major sources of future turbulence
          in the productive system ( in 10-15 years ).          As a result , the
         mastering of these phenomena will condition Europe 's
          industrial competitiveness in the long term ;
         The realisation by public and private decision makers that an
         effective long term science and technology policy cannot be
         governed solely by the objective of improving the supply of
         technology , but that European competitiveness must also take
         into account        the process    of diffusion   and the capacity to
         i nvent new uses f or technology which respond to a real social
         n eed .
    In its role as a catalyst for new initiatives , FAST has had an
    impact within the Member States both on public authorities , and in
    academic and industrial circles . The following can be mentioned :
    .    the national research programme " in support of the FAST
         programme " set up in Belgium to look into the socio-economic
         consequences of scientific and technological development .
         the promotion of close cooperation in the field of cognitive
         sciences      between   the  most   renowned  research   centres  in the
         European Community .
    .    the role played by the FAST network covering the 12 countries
         of the Community and organised by the research centre of an
         industrial      federation   in the elaboration of the Commission 's
         " Forestry Action Programme ".
    .    The promotion of new forecasting and assessment activities in
         science and technology on a national ( governmental and /or
         parliamentary ) and regional level ( see below )).
II  FAST ACTIVITIES : A NEW DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE
   The Commission recognises the importance of the results of the
   FAST programme .          It also remains convinced of the necessity for a
   continuous observ a tion of scientific and technological change , of
   a     long     term forecasting       analysis of    the possibilities and
   challenges for Europe together with an accurate assessment cf the
   social        . mpact    of the development and diffusion of new
   technologies . It has therefore included long term forecasting and
   assessment of science and technology ( FAST ) amongst the priorities
   of the Framework Programme for Scientific ana Technological
   Activities_of the European Commurity                    Furthermore ,   during
   discussions related to the " Framewor I; Pi ogramme ",          several Member
 ---pagebreak---                                                 -3-
          States explicitly attached high priority to the FAST activities ,
         which were considered an essential element in the planning process
         of the Community research programme .
         However ,      the Commission deems it necessary to modify the work and
         mode of       operation of FAST to take into account :
         a ) changes which have come about within the field of operation of
              FAST at      the level of the       European Community and within the
              Member States i.e. , the existence of new Community research
              programmes such as BRITE , EURAM, ESPRIT , RACE , NON-NUCLEAR
              ENERGY , and activities such as CUBE , MEDIA , COMMETT ; equally ,
              one should mention the creation by the European Parliament of
              STOA ( Scientific and Technological Options Assessment ),
              together with the setting up in several Member States of new
              activities or institutions for forecasting and assessment in
              science and technology , such as NOTA in the Netherlands ( 1986 ),
              the Teknologinaevnet           in    Denmark ( 1986 ),          the National
              Forecasting and Assesseinent Agency in Spain ( 1987 ),                      the
              Programme for Information and Communication Technologies ( PICT )
              in      the     U.K.      ( 1986 ),      the     " Sozialwissenschaftliche
              Techni kf orschung " activity of the BMFT in the Federal Republic
              of Germany ( 1986 );
           b ) the new responsibilities and Community tasks ratified by the
                Single Act . This
               - has      determined   that     Community   actions      in   the   field of
                  research and technological development be included in a
                  " pluriannual framework programme ".             Consequently , FAST 's
                  activities now have a definite " client ",                the " Framework
                  Programme ",     and their mandate         is   clearly      defined :    to
                  contribute to      the    periodic     revision     of    the   " Framework
                  Programme ";
               - has fixed 1992 as the           date for    the establishment         of the
                  " internal market ".     This calls for FAST to pay still greater
                  attention     to the effects of the " internal market " on the
                  long term development of science and technology beyond 1992 ;
               - has reaffirmed the objective of stimulating greater economic
                  and social cohesion in the Community , particularly through
                  lessening the      gap between       the various       regions and the
                  underdevelopment of the least favoured areas . In accordance
                  with this objective ,          it seems appropriate that FAST 's
                  activities should also analyse long term scientific and
                  technological trends from the angle of their input to
                  economic and social cohesion in the Community ;
          c ) tiew requirements to which forecasting and assessment ^f
               science and technology must           respond in the years to come .
The        not’on     of   assessment    in   the   context   of    FAST    should    not  be
confused with the notion of assessment of research programmes or R&D .
The meaning of assessment in the FAST context , as it is understood in
the tern; " Technology Assessment ", has as its objective the study of
the snort and long term implications and consequences of scientific
and techn ./ logical developments on a sectoral or global : vel for
r <•••<,? > rch , industry , the economy , the environment and so < iety in oener • l .
 ---pagebreak---                                            -4-
              Particularly necessary is the development of scientific tools
              to provide decision makers with an adequate analysis and
             understanding of complex systems .
  Ill  THE NEW FAST : INSPIRING PRINCIPLES
       Two major principles should inspire the modification of the FAST
       activities , the formal operation of which will commence in 1988,
       taking into account the results of an evaluation of the programme
       which . is presently being carried out by a group of independent
       experts . Their report will be ready end December 1987 .
       F i r st principle : a greater integration of the FAST activities
       into the different stages of the planning of the Community
       research programme .
       To date , FAST 's analyses , focused on the long term , have been at
      a level removed from the process of defining the priorities of
      the Common R&D Programme .            Following the signing of the Single
      Act and the approval of the Framework Programme , FAST activities
      must also include as part of their function the forecasting and
      assessment analysis of economic and social impacts integrated
      into the different stages              of the planning of the Community
      research programme .
      This principle implies two practical innovations :
      S first ,     the need for fle xibility in the research activities and
          met hod s of a ction of FAST in order that it responds efficiently
          to the different requirements of the Commission .             From this
          follows the demand for executing short term research studies in
           lino with the requirements which emerge during the execution of
          the Framework Programme or from other demands expressed by the
          Commission . It also follows that it is impossible to detine in
          advance the entire range of research topics for the entire
          period of     the new     FAST .     It  is nevertheless necessary to
           identify a f ew k ey theme s of major interest and of a global
          rat _re to which        the Commission wishes to pay particular
          attention by stimulating research studies over 2-3 years .
          These studies are indispensable because , through their focus on
          key issues , they will give the necessary macroscopic and global
          overview of the long term changes in science and technology ;
      ■ Secondly ,       grea t er coord ination and integration of the
          cross-disciplinary , multisector ial activities of FAST and the
          ac tivities of the o ther Ds G.       As already noted , these have now
          incorporated dimensions of forecasting changes of strategic
          importance .
5
 ---pagebreak---                                       -5-
         It is clear that the FAST activities , as a tool for the
        planning of the Community research programme , are of concern
        not only to DGXII - JCR , but are also of direct interest to
         DGXIII and DGIII ( particularly in view of the completion of the
        Internal Market in 1992 ).     It is also clear that , to the extent
        that FAST research stimulates the awareness of           the scientific
        and technological dimension in other Community policies ,            and
        vice-versa ,   FAST 's work and results are of interest and direct
        concern to the other Commission services .          FAST research must
        therefore take into account the work carried out by the other
        services in order to be better integrated and to respond
        effectively to their needs and requests .
        Hence   the opportunity and reasons         exist   for   setting up a
        " Groupe Interservices de la Prospective " ( GIP ) .      GIP will have
        the task of participating in the orientation of FAST
        acitivities and ensuring that they are followed up and
        valorised by the Commission services directly concerned .              It
        will also serve to enhance the diffusion and valorisation of
        long term analyses and assessments            realised" by    the other
        services in their specific areas of competence .
     Second principle : reinforce links between FAST type activities
     at the national level and the Community FAST .
     The FAST networks ^ should be reinforced in their role as tools
     for the promotion of intra-European cooperation and for
     integration between national and Community activities in the
     field of science and technology forecasting and socio-economic
     assessment of technology .
     This role is the subject of continued demands from researchers ,
    national and local agents involved in science and technology
    policies and industrialists , regarding matters which concern , for
    example :
    o the availability at Community level of a facility allowing the
       exchange of information and experience in the development and
       utilisation of science and technology indicators , the aim of
       which is to take into account            the   different     aspects  and
       evolution of S & T in Europe .
       These indicators should encourage the reflection and analysis
       by the different actors within the science and technology field
       and serve as bases for discussion and negotiation between the
       actors , allowing for better clarification of the challenges and
       decisions    involved .     Such   is  the   role   of   the   indicators
       developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation .
There exists    an official    network of    12 national     FAST units .     In
addition , there are multiple ad hoc research networks ( cognitive
sciences , services , forestry , technologies of light , food and health ,
EURETA ..).      The development of these cooperative European networks
represents another important accomplishment of the FAST programme 1
 ---pagebreak---          The availability of these indicators is both important and
        useful for European decision makers .         Thus , most of the Member
        countries have made efforts in this direction on a national
         level and within the framework of international organisations
         ( notably the OECD ), particularly in comparing the indicators
        avai lable .
        It is inconceivable and unrealistic for one organisation to
        centralise the development of these European indicators .              It
        therefore follows that it is out of the question for FAST to
        conceive and formulate Community indicators .            The needs made
        most apparent by the Member States are : the stimulation of
        contacts , exchanges of information and experience ; the study of
        the means available to improve the production                  of these
        indicators ;      the development of new indicators ;            and the
        utilisation of the existing tools for analyses at Community
        level .     FAST 's precise task will be to create an environment ,
        by means of its network activities , favouring the establishment
        of closer links at a European level between the manufacturers
        ( researchers ) and users ( public authorities , private sector ..)
        of these indicators .       To this end , FAST will also rely on the
        new " scientific monitoring " unit created within DG XII and the
        work of this nature carried out by the JCR concerning
        technological strategic analyses , together with the activities
       of COOEST .
     o Theoretical        development and     the promotion of exchange of
       experiences       in   matters   of   methodology ,    organi sat ion  and
       uti lisation of long term research and " Technology Assessment "
        in Community countries .
       Methodological problems , both at a theoretical and practical
        level , are becoming increasingly accentuated . This is because
       of the complexity of the phenomena studied , the stochastic
       character of their dynamics and the consequent uncertainties of
       the actors involved .         We are far removed from the certainties
        implied by the forecasting and assessment experts of the 60s
       and 70s .     One of the contributions of FAST will be to stimulate
       advances in methodology through seminars , meetings between
        researchers and users , and the production of ad hoc " state of
       the art " methodological reports . The results obtained could be
       shared with developed countries , such as the U.S. and Japan ,
       and    with Latin American , African and Asian countries , wh^ch are
       interested in carrying out work similar to that of FASl .               It
       will     be    done    in   close   cooperation     with   the    relevant
       Directorates, of DGXII and DGI .
This is the case notably in five Latin American countries ( Argentina ,
Brazil , Columbia , Mexico and Venezuela ) which have recently launched
a joint forecasting and assessment programme on science and
technology for Latin America with explicit reference to the Community
FAST programme .       It is called the Projecto Latino-Americano de Alta
Technologia Ano 2000 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      -7-
      To be effective , it is essential that the organisation and
      realisation of the FAST networks be based , more extensively
      than in the past , on national FAST units and decentralised
     modes of operation .            This would involve a more active
     participation by the Member States in the financing ,       operation
     and valorisation of FAST activities .
IV FUNCTIONS OF THE NEW FAST ( CONTENT AND APPROACH )
   The actions of        the new FAST will    respond to three principal
   functions :
   - a " Forecasting " function ;
   - an " Assessment " function ;
   - a " Monitoring " function .
   While these functions are interrelated and difficult to define in
   isolation ( particularly on an operational level),'       the following
   characteristics of each function can be outlined .
   The Forecasting function consists of presenting hypotheses and
   shedding light on the long term opportunities , problems and
   challenges to Europe of the major scientific , technological ,
   social and economic mutations .        It will focus on a number of key
   areas of a global nature such as :
   I The long term implications for European industry and its
     compet i t i vi ty in the context of the internationalisation of the
     economy and the increasing convergence and interaction between
     different technologies ( notably : materials , microelectronics ,
     advanced production technologies , and light technologies ).       The
     integration between agriculture , the chemical industry and
     energy , which was already studied in FAST II , should be further
     investigated in depth ;
   B The implications and long term consequences for the smaller
     countries of the Community ( in terms of population ,           market
     size ,     etc .)    of  the   development   and  diffusion   of   new
     technologies ;
   1 The long term implications of developments in human biology ;
   B The long term implications of scientific and technological
     development in transport , energy , communication etc . for the
     Community 's urban areas as we enter the XXIst century .
   The Technology Assessment Function will involve three types of
   analyses :
   - factual analyses concerning the prospects of change for a
     technology , sector or scientific field , the analysis of an
     important report or a major event ;
 ---pagebreak--- I'                                         -8-
\          - anticipation and      impact analyses into the technological ,
              economic and social implications of likely developments in a
              particular field , family of technologies or at the interface
              between a number of different technologies and sectors ;
           - stra tegic ana lyse s of the European situation ( strengths and
              weaknesses , interregional comparisons within the Community ,
              international comparisons ) in order to contribute to the
              coordination of national research policies ( COPOL activity ) and
             to complement the work of the JCR .
    12 .   The "Monitoring'1 function will include analyses of scientific       and
          technologi cal indicators ,        methodology of forecasting         and
          technology assessment ,         and the institutionalisation          and
          utilisation of        long term analyses ,         together with      the
           identification of new trends related to problems investigated and
          methods used .    Particular attention will be paid to :
          - new methods of studying complex systems ;
          - improving methods of formulating and using scenarios ;
          - the analysis of the relevance and usefulness of public opinion
             surveys concerning science and technology ;
          - relations     between    researchers    and    users   for   a   better
             realisation of the results          of   long    term   research   and
             " Technology Assessment ".
          The " monitoring " function will be strictly complementary to the
          " scientific monitoring " activity undertaken by DGXII-JCR and by
         other Commission Services ( notably within OsG VI , XII , XIII ) and
          to the Stimulation Programme and CODEST . It wilt equally rely on
          the various " scanning" and " monitoring " activities of the Member
          States .
          To a greater extent than in the past , the work of the new FAST
         will incorporate on a world scale the dynamics of production ,
         consumption and diffusion of science and technology ,                their
          implications for the Common RTD policy and Europe 's long term
         strategies for scientific and technological cooperation with
         other developed countries and the Third World countries .
         To successfully fulfil its objectives ,        FAST will draw on its own
         internal resources ,       on highly qualified visiting scientists
         seconded from the Member States , external expertise ( contracts )
         and European networks of researchers .         Use will also be made of
         " panel groups " and " workshops ", which have given good results in
         other forecasting and technology assessment exercises .
         Finally , particular attention ( rendered possible by the human
         and financial resources made available ) will be paid to the
         diffusion and valorisation of results 3 .
     It is interesting to note in this context that the forecasting and
     technology assessment programme SOTECH of Rhenanie-Westphalia , FRG ,
     has just allocated 3 million DM solely for diffusing the results of
     the programme over a period from 1985-1988 .
  4
 ---pagebreak---                                     -9-
V  OPERATION OF THE NEW FAST :     THE PROPOSAL
   In the light of the above ,             it is proposed that the FAST
   activities continue , conforming to the priorities defined by the
   " Framework    Programme ",    for    a   further  period   of  5  years
   ( 1988-1992 ).      The   FAST   activities    are  considered  a  basic
   instrument     in   the   formulation      of  the   Community  research
   programme .
   Bearing in mind the need for flexibility and in order to define
   the precise content of the major research themes , together with
   the testing and instigation of the modifications deemed necessary
  on the basis of the principles given above ,            it is proposed to
  proceed on a step by step basis .
   The first year must allow for :
  - the completion of the diffusion and analysis of the FAST II
      results in respect of their utilisation within the services of
      the Commission and the Member States .
  - the testing of the feasibility of proposals submitted by the
      independent evaluation group of FAST which will report at the
     end of December 1987, as well as the new methods of operation
     already identified and retained by the Commission .
  - the definition of the precise content of the key research
      issues mentioned above for the years 1989-1992 ,             and the
     detailed programme of further FAST studies for 1989-1990 .
  The Commission will define the              detailed programme of FAST
  activities for 1991-1992 in 1990 ,          in the light of the previous
  years' experience .
  For this purpose ,     the Commission will be assisted by the General
  Advisory Committee ( GAC ),     the creation of which is mentioned in
  Article 3 of the Decision .
                                         *
                                       *   *
                                         *
  The Council is invited to approve the Decision contained herein
  for a new FAST programme .
 ---pagebreak---                                       1
              PRCPOSAL      FOR A
                            COUNCIL DECISION
      concerning Community action in the field of forecasting and
                  assessment in science and technology
                                     FAST
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,
Having regard to Article 130 Q § 2 of the Treaty establishing the
European Economic Community ,
having regard to the proposal from, the Commission
in cooperation with the European Parliament ,^
having
Committee
         regard to the opinion of                      Economic and Social
whereas  the Community has as its task the promotion of a harmonious economic ,
and social development between the Member States in the context of
growing economic and commercial relations with other countries and
whereas scientific and technological changes play a r6le of
increasing importance in      future economic and social development ;
whereas closer technological and scientific cooperation between
universities , research centres and enterprises within the Member
States ,            with extra-Community cooperation ,          is absolutely
necessary to safeguard a capacity for long-term European strategies
in high     technology ,   comparable     to those of other world economic and
technological powers ;
whereas the increasingly complex and stochastic relations between
science and technology , on the one hand , and the phenomena of growing
integration between the different sciences and basic technologies , on
the other , call for continuous and vigilant monitoring ;
whereas the internationalisation of technologies and markets , in the
light of intense competition , increasing R & D costs , reduction in
the life cycle of products and great uncertainties on a regulatory
and monetary level , require efficient monitoring of research and
technology , particulary on an international and European level ;
 Advice : 0 J . lApproval          : QJ . ; Amendaient : 0 J          _)
3 0 J .
                                                                                12
 ---pagebreak---                                                - 2 -
    whereas     forecasting       in science     and   technology   based   on    European
    cooperation nroves - in the context of the Single European Act ~ indispensable
    for formulating common " visions " and strategies with regard to the
    long-term economic and social outcomes to be given to the development
    ancJ utilisation of new technologies ;
    whereas in 1986 the European Parliament approved , on an experimental
    basis , the setting up of an assessement body of scientific and
    technological options ( STOA : Scientific and Technological Options
    Assessment ) ;
    whe r eas   the   Economic     and   Social  Committee   has on   several occasions
    emphasised the importance and usefulness it gives to forecasting and
    assessment      of   the   implications     and socio-economic      consequences of
    scientific and technological changes ;
   whereas several important initiatives have been taken in most of the
    Member States regarding the institutionalisation ,                    either within
   governmental bodies or at parliamentary level , of activities for
    forecasting and assessment in science and technology ;
    whereas      in   the    last    few years     other    Commission    departments have
   developed the means for strategic analysis of long term developments
    in their fields of interest , including the impact of technological
    change related thereto ;
   ■whereas     the    promotion and       development    of   Community   networks     for
    cooperation and research between organisations specialising in
    forecasting and assessment of science and technology constitutes one
   of the most significant attainments of the FAST activities to date ;
   whereas the framework programme of Community action for research and
   technological development ( 1987-1991 ) envisages
   horizontal Community activity in forecasting and assessment of
   science and technology ( encompassing all technological sectors and
   fields of application , calling for a t ransdi sc i pi inary approach );
   whereas the work programme of such an action , in its function as a
   tool for the planning of Community research , must be defined on a
    flexible basis to adapt to the needs which emerge in the execution of
   the " Framework Programme ";
   whereas the       Scientific and        Technical Research Committee      ( Crest' ) has
   delivered its opinion,                        -
  HAS DECIDED AS FOLLOWS             ' ;
                                             Article 1
    A new Community action in the field of forecasting and assessment of
    science and technology ( entitled FAST ),                 defined in the Annex ,
    following the FAST II research programmers hereby adopted for a
    period of 5 years , beginning on 1 January , 1988 .
    A
       0 J    ...
13
 ---pagebreak---                                        3
                                   Artide 2
The appropriations necessary to cover the Community contribution in
the execution of the new FAST are estimated at 14,0 million Ecus over
5 years , including personnel costs ( 6A , 2B , 4C for 1988 and 8A , 2B ,
5C for the following years ) and the cost of researchers seconded to
FAST by the Member States to a maximum of 25 man years .              The
allocation of this amount is given in the Annex .
                                  Article 3
The Commission shall undertake the execution of the FAST activities .  It
will be assisted in its work by a General Advisory Committee ( GAC ) in
accordance with the resolutions laid down in Decision 84 / 338 Euratom ,
CECA , CEE . The GAC-FAST will be called the European Committee £or the
Forecasting and Assessment of Science and Technology ( CEPEST ).
 Comité Europeén de la Prospective et de l' Evaluation Scientifique et
Technique .
 ---pagebreak---                                                 4
                                            Annex
   Action of research in the field of forecasting and assessment in
                         Science and Technology ( New FAST )
1.   The      aim  of    the   FAST     activities      is    to    contribute    to   the
    identification and definition of new directions and priorites for
    a common policy for research and technological development in the
    European Community and the links with other Community policies .
    To this end FAST will analyse long term scientific and
    technological          changes      and     study      their      implications     for
    socio-economic development               and   the    quality      of   life  in   the
    countries of the Community .
2.  The actions of          the new      FAST will     respond to three principal
    functions :
    - a " forecasting” function ,
    - an " assessment " function ,
    - a " monitoring " function .
    fl The forecasting function will develop hypotheses and shed light
       on the long term opportunities , problems and challenges to
       Europe of scientific ,              technological ,        social and economic
       developments .         It will focus on a number of key problem areas
       of a global nature , such as .
        . the     long    term implications         and consequences         for European
            industry and its competitiveness in the context of the
            internationalisation of the economy ,                   of the increasing
            convergence and interaction between different technologies
            ( notably : materials , microelectronics , advanced production
            technologies and light technologies ).                       The integration
            between the agricultural ,            chemical and energy industries
            which was already studied            in   FAST   II    should be developed
            further ;
         . the implications and long term consequences for the smaller
            countries of the Community ( in terms of population ,                   market
            size ,     etc .)   of    the    development       and    diffusion    of   new
            technologies ;
         . the implications and long term consequences of developments
             in human biology ;
          . the long term implications and consequences of scientific and
             technological         development         in        transport ,       energy ,
             communications ,      etc . for the Community 's urban areas as we
             enter the XXIst century ;
      B The Technology Assessment function will comprise three types of
          analyses :
          . factual analyses concerning the prospects for a technology ,
             sector or scientific field , the analysis of a major event ;
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       . anticipation and            impact    analyses   into the   technological ,
          economic and social implications of likely developments in a
         particular field , family of technologies or at the interface
         between a number of different technologies and sectors ;
       . strategic analyses of the E uropean position ( strengths and
         weaknesses , interregional comparisons with the Community ,
          international comparisons ).
   D The " Monitoring " function will include analyses on scientific
      and technological indi cators,the methodology of forecasting and
      technology assessment and their institutionalisation and
      ut i l i sat ion .
II Mode of Operation
3. The preceding paragraphs have laid down the general framework -
   and the major guidelines - of the FAST activities in relation to
   which the work programme is defined .                Bearing in mind the nature
   of forecasting and assessment activities and the integrative
   function of FAST in the different stages of the planning process
   of Community research , the work programme has been defined on a
   flexible bas-is to correspond to the needs of the Commission and
   Member States             as they emerge during the execution of the
   " Framework Programme ".
4. The work programme will be defined and put into effect by the
   Commission ,          in cooperation with CEPEST ,            according to the
   following arrangements .
5. For     the    first     year   ( 1988 )   three  lines of    action are   to be
   followed :
   Line of Action I concerns activities of diffusion and analysis of
   the results of FAST II in view of their utilisation :
   a ) Within the Commission
        - organisation of internal seminars for the presentation and
           debate of the results and proposals of FAST by groups of
           Directorates General according to the subject , and also to
           CODEST ,       IRDAC and other consultative committees of the
           Commission ;
        - diffusion         of   short      information    flashes   on   the   most
           significant results .
   b ) In the Member States with the aid and active participation oi
        the Members of CEPEST :
        - organisation of seminars and working meetings in each Member
           State of the Community with specialised audiences ,                  ( for
           example those responsible for R & D , or industrialists in
           the European food system ) based on strategic and / or
           exploratory synthesis dossiers already produced by FAST
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            before December 1987 ; also to a larger public in the form of
            one-day    conferences   focused ,     for example ,        on the
            presentation of the second FAST final report ;
         - drafting and     translating   into Community     languages of new
            short   synthesis   documents    presenting    principal    messages
            issuing from FAST 's research ;
         - continuation of the publication of articles in specialised
            scientific reviews ;
         - publication of the results of FAST in bulletins , journals or
            reviews of national ministries responsible for research and
            scientific development policy .
     Line of Action II aims in particular at experimenting with and
     verifying :
     - the capacity of FAST to produce short term studies responding
        to demands expressed by the Commission ;
     - the function of the GIP ( Groupe Interservices de Prospective );
        and
     - conditions    which   must be  met   in  order   that   FAST 's work   can
        analyse problems at a world level more effectively than                in
        the past .
     Equally under this line of action will figure the experimentation
     and verification of propositions submitted by the evaluation
     group of FAST II and retained by the Commission in cooperation
     with CEPEST .
     Line of Action III concerns         the   realisation    of   the  research
     activities themselves :
     a ) two assessment exercises on the long term implications and
         consequences of scientific and technological change ; the first
         would aim at developing an in-depth assessment of the impact
         of new technologies on land use within the perspective of a
         common European policy on land use ; the second would refer to
         the implications and consequences over the next 20-30 years of
         the development and diffusion of new technologies for the
         smaller countries of the Community ( in terms of population ,
         market size , etc .);
     b ) the development of two cooperative networks , one on science
         and technology indicators in the European Community ; the other
         on research methodologies for technology assessment and
         forecasting .
  6.  In conformity with § II . 3 above ,     during the course of the first
     year the Commission witl define :
     - the precise content of the central             key   areas   of   research
        mentioned in § 1.2 for 1989-1992 ,
n
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   - the detailed programme of further FASI activities for the years
     1989-1990 .
7. The  Commission   will define  the   detailed  programme   of  FAST
   activities for 1991-1992 in 1990 .
8. The structuring of FAST activities does not exclude the
   possibility of carrying out studies of short duration which
   correspond to the particular circumstances of the Commission .
9. The setting up of the FAST activities will involve the following
   elements :
   0 the development and reinforcement of the FAST " 12 + 1 " network ,
     comprising 12 national   FAST units nominated by      the Member
     States ;
   0 The association of research centres or teams in the Community
     countries specialised in the work of forecasting and assessment
     in science and technology for the realisation of the three
     lines of action mentioned above by , for example , setting up
     ad-hoc European cooperative networks ;
   ° The detachment to the FAST unit by Community and national
     institutions of high level scientific " visiting fellows " ( to a
     maximum  of   S  men for  1988 ) each   of  whom  will   actively
     participate in the realisation of the activities described
     above .
                                 *******
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                              FINANCIAL ANNEX
1. Allocation of Budget
   7300   Forecasting and assessment        in the field of   science and
          technology ( FAST )
2. Legal Basis
   Article 130 Q , § 2 .
3. Descripti on of Research Activities
   The objective of the FAST activities is to contribute to the
   identification and definition of new directions and priorities to
   be taken for the research policy and technological development of
   the European Community .      To this end , FAST will analyse the long
   term scientific and technological changes and study their
   implications and consequences for the socio-economic development
   of the Member countries .
   In order to carry out its function , FAST will , amongst other
   factors , promote intra-Community cooperation between centres and
   research units     in the   Member   States  involved in  the   field  of
   forecasting and assessment of science and technology ,        by setting
   up European ad hoc research networks .
   In order to ensure the best possible integration of FAST
   activities at the various stages of the planning of the Community
   research programme , FAST 's work will be developed and executed in
   response to requests expressed by the Commission and the Member
   States as needs emerge during the execution of the " Framework
   Programme ".     It is not therefore possible to define in advance
   the entire    list of  research themes for the overall duration of
   the new FAST .    It is thus necessary to proceed step by step .
   The work programme of the first year ( 1988 ) is clearly defined .
   Also defined are the possible key research themes for the years
   1989 - 1992 .
   During the first year , the precise content of the work programme
   for the years 1989 - 1990 will be elaborated , always respecting
   the principle of flexibility .
    In 1990 , the work programme for the years 1991 and 1992 will be
    finalised in the light of the previous years' experience .
    The first year ( 1988 ) will therefore comprise three lines of
    action :
    I    The diffusion and valorisation of the         results of    FAST II
         within the Commission ,        other Community institutions and ^
         Member States ,
                                                                             2a
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     II     The testing and validation of new methods of effecting the
            forecasting and assessment of science and technology within
            the Commission with a view to increasing their value and
           operational usefulness ,
     III    The setting up of a certain number of research activities
            ( two exercises of technological assessment ; network studies
           on science and technology indicators ^ in the Community ,
           experimental phase of the network EURETA , a working group
           on methods of forecasting and assessment in science and
           technology ) .
     As far as the activities of the following years ( 1989-1992 ) are
     concerned , they will revolve around :
     - pluriannual research activities based on a few key issues ;
     - short term research studies responding to the demands of the
        Commission and      other    Community   institutions and        the  Member
        States .
4.   Justification
     The facility to provide the Commission with information and to
     shed light on the long term industrial , economic and social
     challenges brought about by scientific and technological change
     for   the    countries   of   the   European    Community     is  a   necessary
     condition for the effective , coherent and pertinent development
     of the Community 's research programme in relation to other
     Community policies ,        and to national science and technology
     policies .
     The progress        which can be realised at a theoretical ,
     methodological       and operational         level in forecasting and
     assessment in science and technology is a distinct advantage in
     defining common strategies for the development and use of science
     and technology in the general interest of Europe .
5.   Financial Costs of Intervention Activities
     The total cost for          the   estimated    period    ( 1988-1992 )
     millions of Ecus ):
     - Community Budget                      14,0
     - Other Organisations
        at national level                     5,0          ( estimate )
                              Total          19,0
1 EURETA :    European Network for Technology Assessment at a regional
              level
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     The flow of expenditures relevant to the Community budget is as
     follows ( in thousands of Ecus ).
     Commi tments
                           1988      1989   1990     1991   1992     Total
     Personnel ( 1+9 )     1.060     1.100  1.200    1.240  1.300      5.900
    Network research
    and administrative
    costs ( 2+3 )            840       800    800      700    800      3.940
    Contracts ( 5 )          900       900    800      660    900      4.160
    TOTAL                  2.8002     2.800  2.800    2.600  3.000   14.000
    Payments
                           1988      1989   1990     1991   1992    1993 (+)  Total
    Personnel ( 1+9 )      1.060     1.100  1.200    1.240  1.300             5.900
    Network research
    and administrative
    costs ( 2+3 )            840       720    800      710    790       80    3.940
    Contracts ( 5 )          160       480    700      750    810    1.260    4.160
    TOTAL                  2.060    2.300    2.700    2.700  2.900   1.340   14.000
    E Methods of calculation
       a ) Personnel Costs ( cat . 1+9 )
           Personnel requirements for the first year have been estimated at :
 In the preliminary draft budget for 1988 ( APB ),      personnel costs as
at 1st January 1988 , together with related administrative costs are
charged to the budget of the old programme for a total amount of 1.2
million ECU .   Following the adoption of the programme by the Council ,
the budgetary     situation will    be adjusted   to conform   to  the   new
decision .
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    6   ( six ) temporary agents      Grade A      ( scientific researchers );
    2   ( two ) temporary agents      Grade B ;
    A   ( four ) temporary agents -   Grade C.
    These      posts   have  already  been  requested     in   the  Commission 's
    proposed budget for 1988 .
    It should be noted that the personnel requirements for 1989-1992
    have been estimated at :
    8 ( eight ) temporary agents      -  Grade A ( scientific researchers );
    2 ( two ) temporary agents        -  Grade B ;
    5 ( five ) temporary agents       -  Grade C.
    ( the additional posts - 2 Grade As , 1 Grade C - will be requested
    during the budgetary procedure for 1989 ).
    Under this heading is also included the participation by the
    Commission to the expenses of associate researchers ( visiting
    fel lows ) seconded by the Member States . The number of associate
    researchers      has  been estimated at     25 man years     for the period
    1988-1992 .
    Mission expenses ,       representation   costs and possible occasional
    payments are covered .
    It should be borne in mind that FAST 's scientific personnel
    ( central team + visiting fellows ) is composed of researchers who
    will themselves carry out research and not limit themselves solely
    to management / administrative roles .
b ) Network Operation Expens es and Administration Costs ( cat . 2+3 )
    1 ) Network Expenses
          These refer in particular to research expenses ( meetings ,
         diffusion and valorisation of results , conferences , working
          seminars    and debates     in Brussels ,        concise information
         documentation , ad hoc syntheses for the general public ( in
          several languages ) computer aided communications and video
         back-up , etc .) incurred in the direct organisation and direct
         animation by FAST of the network activities .
    2 ) Administrative and Technical Expenses
          These refer in particular to :
         ■ Management Committee meetings ( CEPEST ) and working groups ,
            expert meetings , publication and library costs , costs incurred
            in obtaining data bank information , etc .;
         0 Purchase ,     hire and maintenance        of   computer   equipment ,
            including necessary software .
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      c ) Contract Expenses ( cat . 5 )
          These    refer to   expenses  involved  in  carrying  out   technology
          assessment exercises ,   contributions demanded from certain research
          centres participating in various network activities , and in certain
          diffusion and valorisation activities of FAST II results .
          They also refer to expenses incurred for research contracts ; for
          " scenario writing " scientific and technological monitoring , and
          other long term analyses ; contracts for students and " stagiaires "
          ( travel and training ); expert and auditing contracts ; and other
          operations .
      ■   Funding of Expenses
          The credits necessary to cover the Community contribution for the
          FAST activities must be included in the budgets for the years
          1988-1992 .
      ■   Method of Control
          0 administrative control by the Director General        for  Financial
             Control in putting the budget into effect ;
          0 scientific control :
             - Advisory Management Committee ;
             - Groupe Interservice de Prospective .
          0 Verification of accounts by the Auditor of Accounts in conformity
             with the regulations of the Treaty .
0 (VJ