CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: da
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: UDKAST TIL RAADETS RESOLUTION OM DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN OG FAELLESSKABET

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
 ---pagebreak--- Disclaimer
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In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning
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In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar
1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und
der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S. 1), zuletzt geändert durch die
Verordnung (EU) Nr. 2015/496 vom 17. März 2015 (ABI. L 79 vom 25.3.2015, S. 1), ist dieser Akt
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2015/444 vom      13.   März 2015     über die   Sicherheitsvorschriften für den Schutz von  EU-
Verschlusssachen als herabgestuft angesehen.
 ---pagebreak--- iKOMMISSIONEN FOR DE EUROPÆISKEFÆLLESSKABER
                                          KOM(88 ) 656 endelig udg .
                                          Bruxelles , den 14 . december 1988
               KOMMISSIONENS MEDDELELSE TIL RÅDET
                                 om
           " Drivhusproblematikken og Fællesskabet II
                                 og
                             Udkast til
                         RÅDETS RESOLUTION
           om drivhusproblematikken og Fællesskabet
                   ( forelagt af Kommissionen )
                                    #
 ---pagebreak---   Kommissionens meddelelse til Ridet
             om
" DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN OG
       FÆLLESSKABET "
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 2 -
                                  INDHOLDSFORTEGNELSE
RESUMÉ OG     KONKLUSIONER                                    Punkt  Side
I.    EN INDLEDNING TIL DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN                  A-C   4-11
      En kort redegørelse for drivhuseffekten                  1-2  12 - 13
      Drivhusgasser : emissionskilder og udviklingen i        3-10  13- 20
      atmosfærens koncentration
      De mulige konsekvenser for klimaet af de voksende      11-13  20-27
      koncentrationer af drivhusgasser
      De mulige virkninger af klimaændringerne               14-21  27-32
II . BAGGRUND OG FREMTIDSUDSIGTER I INTERNATIONAL SAMMENHÆNG
      Indledning og resumé                                       22 32 - 33
      Verdenskonferencen om " atmosfæren i forandring "          23 33- 38
      ( Toronto , 27.-30 . juni 1988 )
      Fremtidsudsigterne                                     24-28  38-40
III . OVERSIGT OVER AKTIONSMULIGHEDERNE
      Indledning                                             29-31
                                                             29-31  40-41
      Forskningsaktivi teter                                 32-36  42-44
      Forebyggende foranstaltninger                          37-42  44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                                                 Punkt  Side
      Planlagt tilpasning                                       43-45  48-49
      Samarbejde med udviklingslandene                              46 49-50
IV . KOMMISSIONENS KONKLUSIONER                                 47-58  51-54
BILAG
" Vi llach"-konferencen                                           A       56
( Villach , Østrig , den 9.-15 . oktober 1985 )
EF-symposiet om " CO2 og andre drivhusgasser"                     B        57
( Bruxelles , den 3.-5 . november 1986 )
Workshops om " Foranstaltninger til imødegåelse af                C    58-60
klimaændringer " ( Villach , Østrig , 28 . sept.-2 . okt . 1987
og Bellagio , - Italien , 9.-13 . nov . 1987 )
Brundt land-kommi ssionens rapport                                D        61
Europa-Par lamentets beslutning                                    E       61
 ---pagebreak---                                              - 6 -
A.3 .   Baggrund og fremtidsudsigter i international sammenhæng
A.3.1 . Pa den internationale konference om bedømmelse af CO^'s og andre driv¬
        husgassers rolle for klimaændringer og virkningerne i tilknytning hertil
        ( Villach , den 9.-15 . oktober 1985 ) nåede de videnskabelige kredse til
        enighed om de ovenfor omhandlede grundlæggende kendsgerninger med hensyn
        til drivhusproblematikken .
A.3.2 . Konklusionerne fra Vi l lach-konferencen blev yderligere udbygget på EF -
        symposiet i Bruxelles den 3.-5 . november 1986 om " CO^ og andre drivhus¬
        gasser : klima og virkninger i tilknytning hertil " samt på workshops i
        Villach ( 28 . sept.-2 . okt . 1987)og i Bel'lagio . ( 9.-13 . nov . 1987 ) om " for ¬
        anstaltninger til imødegåelse af klimaændringer ".
A.3.3 . Drivhusproblematikken blev også taget op af Brundt land-kommi ssionen . Ef ¬
        ter henstilling fra denne kommission blev der i Toronto den 27.-30 . juni
        1988 holdt en verdenskonference om atmosfæren i forandring , konsekvenser ¬
        ne for den globale sikkerhed . Følgende foranstaltninger blev anbefalet
        på denne konference :
        - Ratificering af Montreal-protokol len om stoffer , der nedbryder ozonlaget .
           Protokollen bør revideres i 1990 med henblik på at sikre næsten fuld¬
           stændig eliminering af emissionerne af fuldt halogenerede CFC'er inden
           år 2000 .
        - Opstilling af energipolitiske foranstaltninger med henblik på at redu¬
           cere emissionerne af CO^ og andre sporgasser og dermed mindske risikoen
           for fremtidig global opvarmning .
        - Nedbringelse af (^-emi ssionerne med omkring 20% af 1988-niveauet inden
           år 2005 som et foreløbigt globalt mål i de industrialiserede lande .
        - Opstilling af mål for energieffektivitetsforbedringer , med direkte sig¬
           te på begrænsning af CO^ og andre drivhusgasser .
        - Forberedelse af en omfattende global konvention .
        - Oprettelse af en fond for den globale atmosfære ( World Atmosphere Fund ).
A.3.A. Et sandsynligt resultat på kort sigt af de ovennævnte internationale ak¬
        tiviteter er , at der allerede i 1989 kan indledes forberedende foranstalt ¬
        ninger til en aftale om drivhusproblematikken , som senere skal omfatte
        protokoller om begrænsning af emissionen af drivhusgasser .
 ---pagebreak---                                                  - 7 -
   A. 3 . 5 . De næste vigtige skridt herimod denne aftale vil sandsynligvis være :
              - en international workshop om lovgivning og foranstaltninger , der skal
                afholdes i Ottawa i begyndelsen af 1989;
              - en politisk konference pi højt plan, som det nederlandske miljømini ¬
                sterium vil indkalde til i efteråret 1989;
              - den 2 . konference om det globale klima , Genève , juni 1990;
              - en regeringskonference om den acceptable udvikling i 1992 , som vil
 Μ
                kunne blive den kulminerende begivenhed .
   A. 4 .     Mulige foranstaltninger
   A. 4.1 .   Taktik til bekæmpelse af drivhuseffekten kan omfatte forebyggelses - og /
              eller tilpasningsforanstaltninger .
   A. 4 . 2 . Forebyggende foranstaltninger går ud pi at begrænse emissionerne af driv¬
              husgasser for at mindske de forventede virkninger .
              Med hensyn til CO^ bør der først og fremmest gribes ind i energisektoren
              og i skovbruget i de tropiske egne .
              Af eksempler på energiforanstaltninger , som vil kunne bidrage til at be¬
              grænse CC^-emi ssionerne , kan nævnes :
              - øget energieffektivitet ( både på forsynings- og efterspørgselssiden )
              - overgang til mindre kulintensive brændstoffer
              - fremme af nye energikilder og acceptabel anvendelse af biomasse
J
              - fremme af risikofri kerneenergi .
                                                                                        U
              Fremme af nye energiteknologier til støtte for disse foranstaltninger
              synes at være af særlig stor betydning .
              På lang sigt vil nye ikke-kulbaserede energisystemer kunne bidrage be¬
              tydeligt til en nedbringelse af CC^-emissionerne .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 8 -
        De ovennævnte foranstaltninger er naturligvis ikke alle lige effektive ,
        og der kræves desuden en omhyggelig vurdering af deres økonomiske leve¬
        dygtighed .
        I skovbrugspolitikken bør man søge at vende den nuværende tendens mod
        skovrydning , især i ffkvatorområdet . Dette vil navnlig indebære, at der
        findes erstatningsbrændsel for træ , som i udstrakt grad anvendes som
        brændsel i disse egne , at der gives incitament til acceptable dyrknings-
                                                                                     i ■
        metoder , siledes at landbrugsudvikling ikke medfører , at store skovom¬
        råder afbrændes med henblik pi at rydde landområder .
A.4.3 . Det er vanskeligere at angive mulige foranstaltninger til at nedbringe
        emissionen af drivhusgasserne CH^ og N^O, i betragtning af usikkerheds¬
        momenterne omkring emissionerne af disse stoffer .
        Følgende muligheder bør udforskes :
        - Mindskelse af CH^-tab i forbindelse med udvinding , transport og an¬
          vendelse af naturgas .
        - Mindskelse af CH-tab fra lossepladser .
                            H
        - Mindskelse af ^O-emissionen fra afbrænding af fossilt brændsel .
        - Undersøgelse af mulige forbedringer i husdyrbrug , risdyrkning og for¬
          valtning af laguneområder, med henblik på at begrænse CH^-f rigørelsen .
        - Undersøgelse af muligheden for bedre gødningspraksis med henblik på at
          nedbringe ^O-frigørelsen fra kvælstofgødning .
A.4.4 . Hvad angår CFC , skulle det være muligt fuldstændig at eliminere C F C–
        emissionen ved år 2000 ved at begrænse produktionen af CFC og ved at genvinde ,
        genanvende eller destruere CFC i eksisterende produkter .
A.4.5 . Der vil eventuelt blive behov for tilpasningsforanstaltninger      ( forebyg¬
        gelse eller mindskelse af skader som følge af klimaændringer og virknin¬
        gerne heraf ) til afbødning af konsekvenser , som, på trods af de forebyg¬
        gende foranstaltninger , viser sig at være uundgåelige .
        Det er ikke på dette stadium muligt detaljeret at angive , hvilke til ¬
        pasningsforanstaltninger , der i givet fald vil være behov for i Fælles ¬
        skabet , da der ikke foreligger nogen pålidelig regional bedømmelse af de
        mulige virkninger .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 9 -
       Tilpasningsforanstaltninger til afbødning af havstandens stigning kan
       f.eks . omfatte diger /barrierer , nationale oversvømmelsesforsikringsprogram¬
       mer , anlæg af reservoirer ( til bekæmpelse af øget saltindhold ), fraflytning
       fra udviklede egne i lavtliggende områder , anden indkvartering af befolk¬
       ningen fra sårbare områder , beskyttelse af kystøkosystemer .
       Der bør foretages yderligere undersøgelser for at fastlægge mulige tilpas ¬
       ningsforanstaltninger på andre områder , såsom landbrug og skovbrug .
B.     KONKLUSIONER VEDRØRENDE DEN NUVÆRENDE VIDEN OM DRIVHUSPROBLEMATIKKEN
B.1 .  Atmosfærens sammensætning er i færd med at ændre sig betydeligt som følge
       af menneskelige aktiviteter .
       De videnskabelige kredse er , på grundlag af globale klimamodeller , nået
       til enighed om , at en fordobling af (^“koncentrationen i atmosfæren vil
       medføre en stigning i den gennemsnitlige overfladetemperatur på 1,5-4,5°C .
       En sådan fordobling vil sandsynligvis indtræde inden midten af det næste
       århundrede .
       De klimatologiske data viser , at den heraf følgende ændring i de gennem¬
       snitlige globale klimaforhold vil være større end de klimaændringer , der
       er indtruffet i historisk tid og i de seneste geologiske tidsaldre .
 B.2 . Det er ikke på nuværende tidspunkt muligt at foretage en pålidelig vurde¬
       ring af de forskellige virkninger af sådanne klimaændringer og disses
       socio-økonomi ske konsekvenser . De foreløbige undersøgelser på dette
       område viser imidlertid , at risiciene er foruroligende store , og at de
       sandsynlige direkte og indirekte konsekvenser er potentielt ødelæggende .
 B.3 . Internationale tildragelser i den senere tid har givet den verdensom¬
       spændende debat om dette spørgsmål en påmindelse om, at sagen haster .
       Det fremgår klart , at det nu er tid til at udarbejde brugbare strategier
       og samtidig fremskynde forskningsindsatsen .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 10 -
C.      KOMMISSIONENS KONKLUSIONER
C.O.    De vigtigste af rapportens konklusioner er kort gengivet her . I kapitel
        IV er de anført uforkortet .
C.1 .   Fællesskabet bør fuldt ud gennemføre Wienerkonventionen om beskyttelse
       af ozonlaget og Montreal -protokollen om stoffer , der nedbryder ozon ¬
        laget , og det bør deltage aktivt i genforhandlingen af denne protokol .
C. 2 .  Fællesskabet bør bifalde , at der indledes forhandlinger om en interna ¬
       tional aftale om beskyttelse af atmosfæren . Fællesskabet bør være rede
       til at yde et betydeligt bidrag til udarbejdelsen og forhandlingerne af
       en sådan aftale , som vil kunne indebære , at der opstilles specifikke mil
        for begrænsning af emissionen af drivhusgasser og fastlægges foranstalt ¬
       ninger og programmer med sigte pi nedbringelse af emissionen .
C. 3 . Kommissionen vi l derfor tage initiativ til at iværksætte
       et omfattende program til undersøgelse af de foreliggende aktionsmulig-
        heder , således at de mulige foranstaltninger til begrænsning af emissio¬
       nen af drivhusgasser kan vurderes med hensyn til gennemførlighed , omkost
       ninger og sandsynlige resultater .
        Programmet skulle omfatte følgende hovedemner :
       - indkredsning og teknisk vurdering af foranstaltninger og teknologier ,
          som vil kunne nedbringe emissionen af drivhusgasser
       - analyse af de ovennævnte foranstaltningers og teknologiers økonomiske ,
          industrielle , energimæssige , samfundsmæssige og institutionelle kon¬
          sekvenser og virkninger
        - opstilling og evaluering af scenarier for de forskellige aktionsmulig¬
          heder, navnlig på basis af mulige strategiske CC^-mål
 ---pagebreak---                                               - 11
       - skabelse af en rammestruktur for beslutningsanalyse
       - fastlæggelse og evaluering af tilpasningsforanstaltninger .
C. 4 . Fællesskabet og dets medlemsstater bør allerede nu i deres politik ( vedrørende
       energi og relevante        andre områder ) tage hensyn til problemet med po¬
       tentielle klimaændringer i tilknytning til drivhusgaseffekten . Hvis dette
       spørgsmål behandles på et tidligt stadium , vil der kunne undgås højere
       omkostninger i fremtiden .
C. 5 .  Allerede nu vil Kommissionen enavidere tage initiativ til hasteforanstaltninger
       for at øge indsatsen med henblik på energibesparelser , bedre energiud¬
       nyttelse , udvikling af nye energikilder og forskning i risikofri kemeteknologi .
       Hurtig udvikling og fremme af imovative teknologier i kommerciel målestok bør prioriteres højt.
       Der er ingen tvivl om, at der er behov for sådanne foranstaltninger , både
       ud fra energimæssige og miljømæssige hensyn , uanset den usikkerhed , der
       hersker omkring visse videnskabelige aspekter af drivhusproblematikken .
       Det ville være af særlig stor betydning at kunne " kvantificere " forbed¬
       ringer i energieffektiviteten i form af (^“ reduktioner .
C. 6 . Fællesskabet bør fremme målrettede forskningsprogrammer vedrørende alle
       de relevante aspekter af drivhusproblematikken , og det bør udvikle
       nye energiteknologier , som kan begrænse CC^-emmi ssionerne .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 12 -
I.   AN INTRODUCTION TO THE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
     What the "greenhouse effect " is in short
1.   The climate conditions we experience on earth are due , among other
     things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
     composition . Without the atmosphere , the average surface temperature of
     the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .
     In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
     the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space, is largely governed
     by the composition of the atmosphere .
     Firstly water vapour , mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere , is an
     effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
     radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
     surface temperature of the earth .
     Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide ( Cl^), methane ( CH^),
     nitrous oxide ( N^O) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs ) have the property of
     being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
   - retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
     infra-red radiation .
     Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
     by the earth . ^
     The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
     coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2.   The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
     significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
     mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
     balance of the earth .
(1)
     Stratospheric ozone ( the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
     ultraviolet radiation from the sun .   Moreover ozone contributes to the
     absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
     contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere . Any change
     in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
     thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 13 -
     In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CC^,
     CFCs, CH^, NgO, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
     gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
     and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
     depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
     This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect "
     because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
     incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
     radiation by the ground, warms the air and is then retained by the glass
     from escaping again .
6reenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.   The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
     have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4.   In case of carbon dioxide ( CO ., ) :
     a.   Emission sources :
 *       ' 1
          Most of anthropogenic C0_ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
                          *
          ( around 5 Gtons of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
          contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
          biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
          the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
          of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
          CO2 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
          increased in 25 years , since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
          more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
          Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to emission
          with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each , followed by gas with
          less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
          It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
          been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
£               O
   1 Gton = 10    tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 14 -
The share of CO2 emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :
                CO2 emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                           and as X of world total
                                          1950 I       1965      I     1980
I         Region              | Mt /y* I     X   Mt / y* I     X I Mt /y* I X  1
I North America               I 723    I  44,7    1003   I 32,1 | 1380 1 26,7  1
| URSS and Eastern Europe     I 291    I  18,0      750  1 24,0 | 1251 1 24,2  1
I China                       I 23     I   1/4      178  1 5,7 | 439 1 8,5     1
I Western Europe              I 379    I  23,4      643  1 20,6 | 853 1 16,5   1
I Japan , Australia           I 45     I   2/8      137  1 4,4 | 300 1 5,8     1
( Developing Countries        I 92     I   5/7      250   1 8,0 1 631 1 12,2   1
lOthers ( worldwide gas       I 63     I   3/9      163   1 5,2 | 310 | 6,0     1
Iflaring , bunkers )          I        I                  1      1        1     1
I                             I        I                  1       1       1     1
| World total                 I 1618 I   100      3126    1 100 i 51 70 1 1 00  1
I                             I        I                  !       I       1     1
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle "
            US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of CO2 emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 15 -
The trends of COg world emission from different fossil fuels for the
period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US D0E / ER-0239
report referred to above ) :
            5000 I                '            1         ~7T,*• “
           4000 -                              /
           3000 "
      i                           Co»'        X                 -
      O          ^              1.72%/
       **                    • .-î^–Z
      o 1000
       s 800 :                                                  ï
      | 6oo - ys                                 y*^**~^ -
      UJ         f                          •/
        «s. ^00 r                        -X
      °           -
             200 -            S
                     S»
                    s»
             100 t--1-1_–I_
               1950             1960         1970         1980
                                         Year
The steep increase of yearly C0g emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and/or solid fuels. Consequently COg
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
   I Fuel                 1 1 985 CO2 emissions in |
   I                      1 mi Ilion tons carbon /y |
   I gas                  1             807            1
   I oi l                 1            2189            I
   I coal                 I            2181            I
   I gas flaring          I              52            I
   I Total                I            5229            I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
                       *• W.
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 16 -
        Per capita COg emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
        are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
         I        Country            | Per capita COg emissions (tons |
         I                           I of carbon per inhabitant )      |
               United States         |              4,9
               German Dem . Rep .    |              4,9
               Canada                |              4,4
               Czechoslovakia        |              4,1
               Australia             |              3,9
               Soviet Union          |              3,3
               Poland                |              3,0
               Belgium               |              3,0
               Germany , Fed . Rep . |              2,9
               United Kingdom        |              2,5
               Netherlands           |              2,5
               France                |              2,0
               Japan                 |              1,9
               Italy                 I              1,5
               Spain                 I              1,4
               China                 |              0,5
               Brazil                |              0,3
               India                 |              0,1
               World average         |              1,0
        Calculated from : Smith , I.M. ( 1988 ) : CO., and climate change ;
        Draft technical review, EIA Coal Research , London, and UN
        statistical data
    b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
        Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
        CO2 has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
        There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
        was around 275-285 ppm . The rate of concentration increase for CO2
        has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
        year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
*
  1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 17 -
         C0£ concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
         emissions, mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation, on
         the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans
         and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
         emissions and this leads to more CC^ stored in the atmosphere.
5.   In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans , air conditioning , refrigerators , solvents ,
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
         to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
         by several orders of magnitude lower than that of COg, one has to
         note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
         higher than that of C0£, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
         trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than COg' on a
         molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
         of some of these substances is extremely long ( up to more than 100
         years ) .
   1 ppb = part per billion = 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 18 -
6. In case of methane ( CH ,)    :
                           –'i –
   a.  Emission sources :
       Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
       paddy fields , natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
       Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH ,
                                                                          4
       cycle is not well known .
       Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
       sources (expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
       shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )
       Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50 )
       Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
       Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
       Oceans                                 10 (+/- 3 )
       Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
       Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
       Man-Made Sources ( million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc. ) 75 (+/- 35 )
       Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30 )
       Biomass burning                        70 (+/- 40 )
       Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
       Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                  D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                         19 -
   b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
       Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times ( from
       0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
       northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983). Average yearly increase
       over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
7. In case of nitrous oxide ( N.,0 ) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
       fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
       seem also to give a significant contribution .
       Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
       Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
       is most difficult .     It is estimated that the overall emissions are
       as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
       brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
       authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
       Oceans and estuaries                    2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
       Natural soils                           6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
       Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
       Fossil fuel combustion                  4.0 (+/- 1.0)
       Biomass burning                         0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
       Fertilized soils                        0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
       Cultivated natural soils                1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                        20 -
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
         N20 atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
         290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .  The present rate of increase is
         around 0,25% per year .
 8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
     greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
     natural cycles . Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
     quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
     observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .
 9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
     future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
     those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
     assumptions .
10 . It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
     From this point of view , uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for C02, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH4, N20 and 0j
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 21
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83 ) = 13% ,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons = 19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4% , 2000 = 7.1% . Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20 / GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .   However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                             - 22 -
The results are summarized in next figure .
          Commitment to Future Wanning in the WR1 Scenario*
       !             Scénarios
               WRI Scenario*
       |       n
               ("1 High Emissions                                                                                 r
               H} But
               (mi   – Coe-                                              m
               (g]   Modest Pollda
               gJJ Modot     Polides                                    /                                      få
               Q
               H Slow Build-Up                                         g
     «1-,-.-1–|-|-Γ-Γ--,-Γ-1
     I960                 3000           I     202» I    I    I 2050 I     2073
                                       □ Am 1                        A          Slow Build-Up does not reach double
                                                                                COj within the forecast period
           Approximate year of commitment to warming
         Q equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above pre¬
            industrial temperature.
            Approximate year of commitment to wanning
            equal to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade above 1980
            temperatures.
 Source : Mintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
               WRI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                       2 3-
                                                  Energy Policies in the WRI Scenarios
                                                                          Related Energy Model Parameter Value
   Base Cue Scenario
   * "Business-Aa-Usual," the inertial model of growth and
     change in the world energy industry
   • No policies to sk>w carbon dioxide emissions
   • Minimal stimulus to improve end-use efficicncy                       (Rate of change • 0.6% per year)
   • Modest stimulus for synfuels devclopment                             (Final Pnce - $3.15-$4.25j>crCJ in 2005)
   • Minimal stimulus for development of solar energy                     (Final Pricc •> $16.50 per CJ in 2025)
     systems
   • No policy to limit tropical deforestation or to encourage
     reforestation
   • Minimal environmental costs included in price of energy              ($0.30 per GJ for coal; $1.00 per C) for synfuels)
   High Emissions Scenario
   • Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
   • No policies to slow carbon dioxide emissions
   • No shmulus to improve end-use cfficicncy                             (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
   • Modest stimulus for increased use of coal                            (Rate of Improvement • 0.75% per year)
   • Strong stimulus for synfuels devclopment                             (Final Price - S2.7S-$3.50 per CJ in 1995)
   • No stimulus for development of solar energy systems                  (Final Price - $20 per Gj in 2040)
». • Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
     agriculture
   • Token environmental costs included in price of energy                ($0.15 per GJ for coal; $0.50 per CJ for synfuels)
   Modest Policies Scenario
   • Strong stimulus for improved end-use efficiency                      (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
   • Modest stimulus for solar energy                                     (Final price - S15.00 per CJ m 2025)
   • Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
     protection; more intensive rather than extensive
     agriculture encouraged
   • Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                     (SQ.60 per G] for coal; $1.50 per GJ for synfuels)
     prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
     fuel-switching
   Slow Build-up Scenario
   • Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency                 (Rate of improvement - 1.5% per year)
   • Rapid Introduction of solar energy encouraged                         (Final Price - $12.00 per G] in 200<J)
   • Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
     protection
   • High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                  ($1.20 per CJ for coal; S3.00 per G) for synfuels)
     discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                     Total Emissions of C02 in the WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)
                  “1
                  20 J          WRI Scénarios
                                WRI Scenarios                                              /
                                                                                            /
                             H High Emissions                                          /
                             ▲ Base Case                                            /
                     J       if Modest
                             if Modest Policies
                                         Policies                               /
                      |      • Slow Build-up
                                      Build-Up                               y'
            :     M-
            I “*                                                //
           Io !i»j                                    /
                                                        'λ
                   0 -|-|-1-1-
                     197$               2000             2025            2050                2073
 ---pagebreak---                                                 24 -
By a different approach . Or . R. A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
 link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
probabilities to the possible outcome .
The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                           RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 IN°C)
     (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
     ( B ) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY         EQUILIBRIUM UTRANSIENT) (C         ~C)) CLIMATIC
                                                                               CÜMAT1C CHANGE
                                                                                            CHANGE
               - _7'l"d
               -                                                       _
                                                0.0”
                                                         ( 2.5-3 . 1 )
                                                6.0 --                        - - -T£
                                                4.0 +                                             В
                                            -,4                          _ f __    U         ... y
                                                  J                  BEST GUESS
                                                                     BEST GUESS    : .4 5      M:
                                                      u (1 .0-1 . 1 ) _
                                                      U – rrr crr – – –
                                                                           t_  – –
                                                                                                  T
    i                    i                                                         *              Y
    1–I-1- !-1 !-H – – -1-1-1-1–i–l-1-
      800        700     ! eôo
                           Θ00 |    500          Λ^\1ΘΘ5  1995 2005
                                                                 2005 20   15 2025
                                                                        2015   2025 2035
                                                                                       2035 20-45
                                                                                            20-45
    I EQUIVALENT CO,CONC
                  CO , CONC (ppmv)
                     *   I      I
                                     j
                                     k
                                                        \\                          I*      YEAR
    !                    !      !                                                    !
                                                    ''2006
                                                    +2006                          {
                                                   + 2015
                                                x +- -2026
                                                       2026
                                                                                \ I
                                                   - - 2036
                                                   - - 2045
                                                   +
                                                      YEAR
                                                      YEAR                                          \
    (A ) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
   emi ssions
    T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
   increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CC^ concentration
- " transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
   due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
   been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 25 -
       The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
       above mentioned evaluation :
          Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which
        we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
        outside this range is less than 1% .
      - The "best-guess" range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
        probability of warming within this range is 45% .
      - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
        best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 . The presently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
                                                                   (1 )
     uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts       :
     - Global-Mean Surface Warming ( very probable ). For a doubling of
       atmospheric carbon dioxide ( or its radiative equivalent from all of
       the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
       expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C . The most significant
       uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course, the actual
       rate of  warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
       rate of  greenhouse gases , natural fluctuations in the climate system,
       and the  detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
       climate  system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
     - Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ). Increased heating
       of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
       greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
       average precipitation , some individual regions might well experience
       decreases in rainfall .
     - Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ). As the sea ice boundary
       is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
       surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
       water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
       surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1)
     Source : NRC ( 1987 ); Current Issues in Climate Change , National Research
               Council , Washington DC , USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 26 -
     - Suaaer Continental Dryness/Uarming ( likely in the long term ). Several
        studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ). As the climate
        warms , the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ). Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere . The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that " the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects ( processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO , 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape, on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 27 -
     As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "CO^ and other
     greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact" organized by the
     Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
        "- Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain , it is now
            believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
            produce a significant change during the 21st century .
         - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
            50 years .
         - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
            temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
            by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 . Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on " COg and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        " The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
          global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years , while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C , sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     .  heating and therefore expanding the ocean water;
     .  melting of mountain glaciers ;
     .  melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica ;
     .  a possible (but unlikely ) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28 -
     A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
     avai labié .
     The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
     seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference, June
     1988 ).
     A significant rise in sea level would :
     . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
     . accelerate coastal erosion ;
     . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
     . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 . Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .  This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Water Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes . As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption ;
     . power génération ;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the COg atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 29 -
into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .
The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :
. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
  regional level ;
. length of growing season ;
. number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change " view : emphasises the significance of gradual
  increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
  long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
  agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
  unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
  from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
  flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
summarised below       :
"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
   plant growth rates ;
      Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
     Variations on Agriculture, Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
     and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 30 -
 - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
 - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality ;
 - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers ,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature , the magnitude and
location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
  levels are high latitude , semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
  areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
                                                      (1)
  USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen        et al , show
  reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats ,
  due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs, changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 31
     In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
     give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
     effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
     about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
     detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
     systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19 . Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of CO^ on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
       . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
         forest ecosystems ;
       . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
       . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
       . disturbance of timber- and woodproducts markets and trade ;
       . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
         ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
         reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health . It could in particular :
       . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
         temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
       . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme
         events );
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 32 -
       Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
       tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
       face health problems .
21 .   Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
       The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
         . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
         . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
         . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct /
           resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;
         . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
           reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
           could migrate ).
       The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
       thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
       Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
       coupled/ both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
       capable of being modified by climate .
       However , it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
       fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
       overfishing .
  II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
  Introduction
22 . Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
       équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
       déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
       Chamberlin , 1899 ).
       Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du COg par un
       réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 33 -
    Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
    milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
    tous tes aspects de l' effet serre .
    Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
    l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
    Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
    des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the "Villach " conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract CO^
       rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on "CC^ and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change " (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987);
    . The Brundtland Commission' s report
    . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
    Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing ataosphere, implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 34 -
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
     Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries / United
     Nations organizations / other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations / the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
     "- Humanity is conducting an enormous / unintended / globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities /
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
      - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     " A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 .  Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 35 -
Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of CO2 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of CC^ is an imperative
goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce C0£ emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
Reduce COg emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly, the
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
modifications in supplies .
Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in CO^ and other greenhouse gases . A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally,
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in CC^ and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency, a
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .      ,
Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
 (i ) switching to lower Ct^ emittaing fuels, Cii ) reviewing
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
nuclear power option , which lost credibility because of problems
related to nuclear safety , radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                    36
   proliferation . If these problems can be solved, through improved
   engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
   could have a role to play in lowering CC^ emissions .
 - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and
   approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made
   through reduction of fossil fuel combustion , to reduce ( i ) emissions
   of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
   environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
   tropospheric ozone; ( iii ) other non-CC^ greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
   the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
   use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations ,
   Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
   framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
   convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
   international exchange of information and support of research and
   monitoring , and should provide a framework for specific protocols
   for addressing particular issues, taking into account existing
   international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
   International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
   in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
   Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 37 -
Establish a  World Atmosphere Fund/ financed in part by a levy on
fossil fuel  consumption of industrialized countries / to mobilize a
substantial  part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan   for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government-to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
Increase significantly the funding for research , development and
transfer of information on renewable energy , if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
agreements .
Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Developments ( WCED ) report , " Our Common Future", including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts , monitoring, research and analysis related to the changing
atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement / the Working Groupe reports
         and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
         Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" (to be published in
         the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
         conferences mentioned under paragraph 26 , and other future meetings
         dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
         establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
         changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         envi ronment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation , already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 39 -
     - the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June 1990;
     - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist in :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b ) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 . Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
      ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
         "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
          other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
          This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
          impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
          extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
          international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 40 -
           The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
           ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
           of the difference in regional impact should not , however , be allowed
           to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
           Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
           regions into "winners " or " losers ". This is not a " zero-sum" game .
           Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
           uncertain proportions ."
 III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
 Introduction
29 .  Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
      international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
      the greenhouse issue .
      Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview, could
      include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
             emissions ) ;
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
             to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
             preventive measures ).
30 .  Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
      ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of CC^ emissions );
      (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
            water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 41
     < c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
           to be adopted , taking account of ( a ) and of particular European
           conditions ).
     The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
           increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
           ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
           will happen , when, where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
           uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
           Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
           could consider .
     ( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
           - which danger , when and where , one has to face and what
             consequences upon the environment , the economy , the society at
             large are to be expected;
           - how to implement at best the measures decided ;
     Therefore , the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two .
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 42 -
 Research activities
32 . Already since 1980, the Commission of the European Communities is
     carrying out a research programme in Climatology , whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
     resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations , the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops, forests , water
           resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased COg and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 43 -
     (4) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
            upon agriculture and industry (the impacts of the alternance of
            droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources/ the impacts
            of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
            agriculture and industry ).
     ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
     ( 6) The study of the social / economic and political factors conditioning
          ' probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases, and likely to be
            affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
     ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community ,
            due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
            consequences for agriculture , consequences for cost line regions of
            the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
34 . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution ,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as COg is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 44
35 . Elimination of CC^ at the source could eventually become a new domain of
     resarch .   No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
     available .
     New directions for research in this field should be explored .
36. Moreover, the management of the CC^ problem implies both the definition
     of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
     objectives .   The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
     how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
     reduction .   The implementation action will have to determine the
     economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction , the
     allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
     institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
     System Analysis can , in principle , provide the adequate basis for
     looking at these questions . Energy-Envi ronment models give the
     possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
     Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
     environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
     Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
     systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
     The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
     should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
     energy related CO^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
     The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
     costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
     on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action ( greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37 . Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
     in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
     This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
     concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
     greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
     objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 45 -
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including, in case of COg,
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39 . Carbon dioxide (CO^) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , CO^ emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at CC^ emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO .,
        There are several types of technical energy related measures that
        could curb CO^ emissions, as listed below .
        Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
        physical potential of CO^ emission reduction of a given measure and
        its economic viability .
        The following technical measures , which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce CC^ emissions from
        carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs , better insulation , more efficient cars , electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                  46
    - improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration,
      introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
      high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);
b . Energy Supply
    - fuel switching to less CO ^ emitting fuels (the relation of CO^
      emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
      the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
      follows : 121 , 100 , 88, 58 );
    - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
      windpower , hydro, geothermal , photovoltaics );
    - increased use of nuclear power .
c . Biotic sources
    - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
      cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
      the CO2 atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
    - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
      technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
      be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
    - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
      forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
      carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing COg emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 47 -
   System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
   exploring consequences of economic-energy-environmental related
   measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
   information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CC^ reduction
   goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
   technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
   objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
   a . Conserve forest resources
       - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
         developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
         cause further deforestation ;
       - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
         forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
         sustainable basis ;
       - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
       - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
       - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
         utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
       - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
         tropical regions ;
       - promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,
   c . Natural ecosystem protection
       - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
         relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 48 -
40 . CFCs Missions
     Possible preventative actions are :
     a . Constrain use
     b . Constrain production
     c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, N^O Missions
     Actions which could be considered are :
     a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
     b. Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
     c . Minimize NgO emission from fossil fuels burning .
     d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
         cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
     e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
         ^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 . The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
     greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
     feasible, could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
     measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 . Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
     impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
     levels .
     Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
     if it is believed that :
     - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
        to in the short term ;
     - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
        effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
        now, it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
        atmospheric warming to which we are already committed).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 49 -
     At this stage it is not possible to cover, even in qualitative and
     simple way, all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
     in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
     However, it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
     measures for possible sea~level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
44 . Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
     - Sea walls / flood barriers .
     - National flood insurance programmes .
     “ Construction of reservoirs (to combat increased salinity).
     - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
     - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
     - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 . Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
     impacts on agriculture are :
     - More efficient use of fertilisers .
     - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production;
     - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
     - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
        control , water management , etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
46 . All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
     planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
     needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
     aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
     the greenhouse effect . In particular :
     a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
         prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
         deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
         genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                    50 -
b) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 51
 IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 . The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
      protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
      that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
      application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision ,
      Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 .  The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
      renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
      deplete the ozone layer . The Protocol should be revised so that the
      CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
      recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .  The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
      possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
      the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
      to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
      include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
      greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
      programmes .
50 .  Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
      substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the feasibility,
      costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
      emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
      international debate on the issue .
      The main areas of such programme should be :
        - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
           in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
        - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
           implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
        - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for CO- emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                        52 -
         A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
         this frame .
         The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
       - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
         probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
         benefits .
       - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
         unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
         decision analysis exercise .
     The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
     energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
     policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
     exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
     The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
     research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
                                               *
     climatology and energy .
     Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem , the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy ,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of CO^ reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit CO^ emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     envi ronment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
          which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
          for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
          precariously low , coastal states , etc . Such maping would form a
          reference basis against which policies could be evaluated .   It would
          certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
          developing countries .
       - The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
          account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
          for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
          modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
          in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 54 -
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         increased , in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally , the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                    - 55 -
                 A N H E X
Recent major events on the greenhouse issue
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of CO., and of other greenhouse gases in cliaate variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP , WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
        long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
        as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
        structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
        planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
        without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
        longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
        greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
        global climate in the next century ."
      " While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
        actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
        affected by governmental policies on energy conservation , use of
        fossil fuels , and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      " Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
        little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
        magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
        atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
        ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 57 -
      "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
       into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
       policies on social and economic development , environmental
       programmes, and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
      "Public information efforts should be increased by international
       agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
       change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
       this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
      "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
       regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
       are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless , the understanding of the
       greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
       policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
       effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
       should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC , DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 .    It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric CC^ and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue, mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
         dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote ,
         intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
         closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 58 -
       - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
            necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
            makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   CVillach ~ Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to " start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol  Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
        after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
        of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
        emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
        greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
        Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
        energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
        efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing CO2
        emissions . Research and development on alternative (non-fossil )
        energy systems must be greatly intensified .
        ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
        Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation,
        e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
        Forest Action Plan , 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
        because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture ,
 ---pagebreak---                               - 59 -
energy, soil erosion, flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
( A ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; NgO
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices, etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and / or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed in terms of CO^ equivalence) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these, regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 60 -
( 7) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities ,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes, atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / GEMS (Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
   monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
   changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU, UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority . *
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 61
0. The Brundtland Commission's report
    The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
    the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
    body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
    the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
    promoting a sustainable development .
    Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
    Session in the fall of 1987 .
     This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
     international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
     It is suggested to consider :
     "- improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
      - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,
         mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
      - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
         of the causative gases ; and
      - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
         climate changes and rising sea level ."
      The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
      international convention on "management policies for all
      environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E „ The European Parliament resolution
    The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
    resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of C02 in
    the atmosphere :
    " The European Parliament
       - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
         research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
         of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
         B2-1430 / 84 ).
                           /
 ---pagebreak---                                    62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up, which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and, in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution, provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since , contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;
2.  Calls upon the Commission , in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges, thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                    63 -
 3. Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
     from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
     in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
     purification respectively;
 4 . Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation, for which the
     Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
 5.  Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
     put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
     countries ;
 6.  Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
     research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
     especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
     ocean-atmosphere interaction;
 7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
     essential requirement for climatic stability;
 8.  Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
     the Northern hemisphere , which are largely responsible for
     jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
     given access to the latest technological know-how;
 9.  Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
     quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
     directly responsible - about the implications of the human
     activities in question , while explaining the need for effective
     measures ;
10 . Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
     climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
     a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 . Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
     its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---                                         1
                        Kommissionens arbejdsprogram om
                       en analyse af mulighederne for at
              imødegå risiciene forbundet med " drivhuseffekten "
I. PROGRAMMETS INDHOLD
   Med dette program som udgangspunkt skulle det være muligt at bestemme , hvil ¬
   ken rolle Fællesskabet og dets medlemsstater vil kunne spille i de relevante
   internationale kredse med hensyn til at fastsætte og fremme de fornødne for ¬
   anstaltninger til at imødegå risiciene i tilknytning til drivhuseffekten .
   Arbejdsprogrammet omfatter følgende emner :
   A. Indkredsning af de mulige foranstaltninger til at forebygge / begrænse
      emissionen af drivhusgasser
      Foranstaltningerne til at realisere strategiske mål for begrænsning af
      emissionen af forskellige drivhusgasser vil blive fastlagt . Dette vil
      for hver enkelt drivhusgas betyde en detaljeret vurdering af de fore ¬
      liggende muligheder for emissionsbegrænsning , af det niveau for emissions
      begrænsning , som hver enkelt aktionsmulighed vil kunne medføre , samt af
      de foranstaltninger , der behøves til at realisere de strategiske mål .
      Mulighederne for forebyggelse / begrænsning af emissionerne vil blive gen ¬
      nemgået for følgende sektorer :
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 2 -
   - gnergifremsti lling
   - energi forbrug ( herunder transport )
   - industriproduktion
   - anvende Ise af produkter
   - Undbrugsakt i vi teter .
   Der skal vælges en fremgangsmåde, som tager højde for de forskellige landes el ¬
   ler landegruppers særlige situation . Navnlig følgende skal tages i betragtning :
   - det økonomiske udviklingsstade
   - den aktuelle energipolitik
   - de geografiske forhold .
B. Konsekvenserne af de forskel lige muligheder for emissionsbegrænsning
   Hver enkelt aktionsmulighed med hensyn til at nedbringe emissionen vil blive
   gennemgået med henblik på at vurdere følgende aspekter :
   - de teknsike og industrielle konsekvenser
   - de finansielle og økonomiske konsekvenser
   - de politiske , institutionelle og samfundsmæssige konsekvenser .
C. Udvikling af en rammestruktur for beslutningsanalyse
   Der vil blive udviklet en raimestruktur, hvori al den foreliggende viden om alle aspekterne af
   drivhusproblematikken kan samles , således at de sandsynlige fordele (i form
   af mindskelse af risikoen for klimaændringer osv .) ved de forskellige aktions ¬
   muligheder kan indkredses . Denne struktur vil omfatte :
   - emissioner og emissionsbegrænsning
   - konsekvenserne af begrænsningen
   - de foreliggende videnskabelige data om de mulige fordele ved alternative
     former for emissionsbekæmpelse .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 3 -
    Rammestrukturen vil blive udformet således , at der tages hensyn til usikker¬
    hedsmomenterne omkring emissionerne , bekæmpelsesforanstaltningernes effekti ¬
    vitet , klimaændringerne og virkningerne heraf , og således at de mest sand¬
    synlige resultater af de forskellige foranstaltninger vil kunne beregnes .
    Inden for denne ramme vil det tillige være muligt at undersøge konsekvenserne
    af en eventuel udsættelse af foranstaltningerne . Ved at strukturere problemet
    og indkredse de usikkerhedsmomenter , som har størst indflydelse på resultater ¬
    ne , vi l denne rammestruktur kunne tjene som et vigtigt værktøj til at evaluere
    de forskellige aktioner og fokusere den fremtidige forskning på de vigtigste
    spørgsmål .
0 . Vurdering ved hjælp af en rammestruktur for beslutningsanalyse af de sand¬
    synlige fordele ved de forskellige aktionsmuligheder og opstilling af klima -
    og konsekvensscenarier for de forskellige emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder
    Rammstrukturen vil blive anvendt til at indkredse de mulige resultater af de
    alternative aktionsmuligheder for emissionsbegrænsning og tidspunkterne her ¬
    for ( scenarier ). Den vil samtidig vise den relative sandsynlighed for , at
    de forskellige fordele vil kunne opnås .
E. Fastsættelse og vurdering af tilpasningsforanstaltninger , der behøves under
    de forskellige scenarier , som er omhandlet i afsnit D ovenfor
    På trods af emissionsbekæmpelsesaktionerne vil der stadig være risiko forbun¬
    det med tidligere emissioner og fortsatte emissioner i fremtiden . Det vil der¬
    for være nødvendigt at fastlægge tilpasningsforanstaltninger ( dvs . aktioner
    til beskyttelse af mennesker , ejendom og landbrug ), som kan afbøde disse risi ¬
    ci . De alvorligste af disse " resterende " risici vil blive vurderet og lokali ¬
    seret , og de omkostnings - og tidsmæssige konsekvenser af forskellige tilpas¬
    ningsforanstaltninger vil blive evalueret . Det vil være nødvendigt at opstil ¬
    le tilpasningsforanstaltningerne i en prioriteringsrækkefølge for at sikre ,
    at de resterende risici imødegås bedst muligt med disponible ressourcer , og
    for at sikre , at indsatsen koncentreres om de vigtigste problemer .
 ---pagebreak---                                               - 4 -
II . DETALJERET LISTE OVER AKTIVITETERNE
     Gennemførelsen af dette program vil bl.a . indebære følgende aktiviteter :
     A. Forudberegning af emissioner og aktionsmuligheder med henblik pi emissions -
        begrænsning
        i)    Forberedelse af emissionsprognoser for hver enkelt drivhusgas . Disse
              emissioner bør analyseres for ( a ) geografiske omrider og ( b ) politiske ,
              strategiske og økonomiske landegrupper .
        ii )  Bestemmelse af de faktorer ( bortset fra bekæmpelsesforanstaltninger ),
              der vil kunne indvirke på den fremtidige emission . Bedømmelse af sand¬
              synligheden for sidanne faktorers indvirkning og udvikling af alterna¬
              tive emissionsscenarier .
        iii ) Indkredsning af de bestående emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder for hver
              enkelt drivhusgas . Vurdering af omfanget af de mulige emissionsbe¬
              grænsninger under de forskellige emissionsscenarier .
     B. Vurdering af konsekvenserne af de forskellige emissionsbekæmpelsesmuligheder
        i)    Bestemmelse af praktisk gennemførlighed, omkostninger og tidsplan for
              hver enkelt emissionsbegrænsningsforanstaltning .
        ii ) Vurdering af de samfundsmæssige og økonomiske virkninger .
        iii ) Vurdering af distributionsvirkninger ( a ) i de enkelte lande , ( b ) mellem
              landede , ( c ) mellem politiske og strategiske landegrupper .
     C. Skabelse af en rammestruktur for integrering af oplysninger , der indhentes
        i forbindelse med arbejdsprogrammet
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 5 -
   Denne rammestruktur skal udformes således , at den kan :
   - vise konsekvenserne af alternative aktionsmuligheder , herunder omkostnin ¬
      ger og potentielle fordele
   - vise konsekvenser af indgreb på forskellige tidspunkter
   - vise gennemførligheden af mulige beslutninger ( vedrørende bekæmpelsesstra ¬
      tegier eller tilpasningsstrategier ) under hensyntagen til usikkerhedsmomen¬
      terne i prognoserne og de videnskabelige data
   - vise hvilken yderligere forskning , der behøves for at tilvejebringe det
      nødvendige beslutningsgrundlag .
D. En vurdering af emissionsbekæmpelsesstrategierne
   i)    Indkredsning af de sandsynligste fordele ved emissionsbekæmpelsesstra ¬
         tegierne . Hertil kræves en kritisk gennemgang af de mekanismer , hvor ¬
         ved drivhusgaskoncentrationerne er knyttet til den globale opvarmning .
         Opmærksomheden skal særlig rettes mod tilbagekoblingssystemerne , tids ¬
         aspekterne og konsekvenserne for regionale klimaforhold .
   ii )  Sandsynlighedsvurdering , på basis af den kritiske gennemgang , af de
         alternative prognoser og di sses konsekvenser . Dette arbejde bør bygge
         på udtalelser fra de vigtigste eksperter på området , og de forskellige
         alternative prognoser vil , hvis det er praktisk gennemførligt , blive
         tildelt en sandsynlighedsskala , som kan afspejle usikkerhedsmomenterne
         ved de forskellige resultater .
   iii ) På grundlag af disse oplysninger og data om emissionsbegrænsning ( A )
         og konsekvenserne heraf ( B ) vil den under C omhandlede beslutningsram¬
         me blive anvendt til at vurdere alternative emissionsbekæmpelsesmulig ¬
         heder og disses omkostninger , fordele og andre konsekvenser .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 6 -
      E. Vurdering af tilpasningsforanstaltninger
         i)    Gennemgang af forskellige opvarmningsniveauers konsekvenser for
               inf rastrukturerne og levnedsmiddelforsyningerne i Europa; ind¬
               kredsning af andre vigtige konsekvenser . Vurdering af virkninger¬
               ne pa andre politiske eller økonomiske landegrupper .
         ii )  Gennemgang af de aktioner , der vil kunne iværksættes med henblik
               på at imødegå de mulige ændringer ( i ) i Europa ( f.eks . nye af¬
               grødesorter , ændret såningspraksis osv .).
         iii ) Vurdering af omkostningerne og udbyttet ved alternative tilpas ¬
               ningsforanstaltninger på basis af den under ( D ) omhandlede vurde¬
               ring og med anvendelse af den under ( C ) omhandlede rammestruktur ;
               vurdering af sandsynligheden for , at sådanne tilpasningsforan¬
               staltninger vil være effektive under hensyntagen til de forudsete
               virkninger .
III . RETNINGSLINJER FOR PROGRAMMETS GENNEMFØRELSE
      A. Ved gennemførelsen af dette program vil Kommissionen fuldt ud tage hen¬
         syn til andre relevante aktiviteter , både i Fællesskabet og i verden
         som helhed , som f.eks .:
         - EF-forskningsprogrammet for klimatologi og naturkatastrofer
         - resultaterne af nylige internationale konferencer ( f.eks . konferen¬
            cen om atmosfæren i forandring , Toronto, juni 1988 )
         - UNEP / WMO-arbejdsgruppen vedrørende klimaændringer
         osv .
         I dette øjemed vil Kommissionen skabe passende samarbejde med relevan¬
         te organisationer , der beskæftiger sig med disse aktiviteter .
 ---pagebreak--- B. Med bistand fra det i afgørelsens artikel 1 omhandlede udvalg vil Kom ¬
   missionen fastlægge , hvilke procedurer og konkrete skridt der skal tages
   med hensyn til dette arbejdsprogram , sivel som hvilke oplysninger , med¬
   lemsstaterne skal tilvejebringe .
   Relevante organisationer og myndigheder i medlemsstaterne vil blive knyt ¬
   tet til arbejdet via det ovennævnte udvalg .
FINANSIERING AF PROGRAMMET
Det beløb, der skønnes nødvendigt til gennemførelsen af programmet ,
andrager 6 mio ECU .
 ---pagebreak---                                       Udkast
          RÅdsts resolution om dr Ivhuaproblsm^t lkkan oa Fæl lesskabet
Rådet for De Europnlske Fællesskaber ,
som henviser til Traktaten om Oprettelse af Det Europæiske økonomiske
Fællesskab , »om henviser til udkast til resolution , forelagt af Kommis¬
sionen , og
som tager følgende I betragtning :
Traktaten om Oprettelse af Det Europa I ske økonomiske Fallesskab , andret ved
Den Europa I ske Falles Akt , Indeholder bestemmelser om udvikling og gennem¬
førelse af en fel lesskabspol It Ik på miljøområdet samt bestemmelser om , at
Fel lesskabet ved udarbejdelsen af foranstaltninger på dette område skal
tage hensyn til de eksisterende videnskabelige og tekniske data og
fordelene og ulemperne ved foranstaltningernes gennemførelse eller mang¬
lende gennemførelse ;
denne resolution bygger på betragtningerne I resolutionen af 19 . oktober
1987 om et handlingsprogram for Det Europalske Fallesskab på miljø¬
området ^, hvorefter der er behov for foranstaltninger på et passende
niveau og behov for at samordne arbejdet på Internationalt plan , at vurdere
fordele og omkostninger ved de påtankte foranstaltninger og gøre passende
tekniske og politiske forberedelser til sådanne foranstaltninger ;
de foreliggende videnskabelige data , navnlig resultaterne af Fel lesskabets
ml I Jøfor8knlngaprogrammer , viser , at atmosferens sammensætning er l ferd
med at endre sig betydelig som følge at menneskelige aktiviteter ; I henhold
til de foreliggende klimamodeller kan dette , som følge af den såkaldte
drivhuseffekt , medføre klimaændringer , der indebærer betydelige virkninger
på miljøet , på menneskene og på disses aktiviteter ;
 I betragtning af dr ivhusprob lernet ikkens art og omfanget af risiciene for¬
bundet hermed er det vigtigt hurtigst muligt at undersøge mulighederne for
 foranstaltninger til forebyggelse eller mindskelse af disse risici ;
 ---pagebreak---                                           2
på nyliga Internationale konferencer om emnet er der nået til meget bred
enighed om bshovat for hurtigst muligt, at overveje foranstaltninger til
mindskelse af emissionen af drivhusgasser ;
 I betragtning af dr I vhusprob lemat Ikkena kompleksitet og ds mange og vldt -
rakkenda     konsekvenser af  såvel    drivhuseffekten      eom  af   de  mulige  for ¬
anstaltninger til at forebygge eller afbød® konsekvenserne heraf er det
væsentligt , at der foretages forudgående undorsøgelsa af de foreliggende
aktionsmuligheder ; danne bør bygge på egned® metodo log i er , hvori der
navnlig tagsa passende hensyn til ti® fortsat bestående usikkerhedsmomenter
omkring flere af aspskterna af dette emne ;
det er af størst® vigtighed , st Fællesskabet og dets medlemsstater kan yde
et afgørende bidrag til overvejelserne over og udarbejdelsen af de beslut ¬
ninger , som senere skal trsffaa I de relevante Internationale Instanser ,
således st risikoen for k I Imaændr I nger kan Imødegås på den most effektive
måde ;
b l fa I der Kommissionens meddelelse om      " dr I vhuaprob lemat Ikken  og  Fælles¬
skabet " og tilslutter sig de vigtigste konklusioner og henstillinger heri ;
ork lerer . at Fællesskabet bør hellige risikoen for klimaændringer Bom følge
af drivhuseffekten voksende opmærksomhed , og at døt bør bidraga væsentligt
til overvejelserne og drøftelserne vedrørende mulighederne for at imødegå
denne risiko ;
bifalder Kommissionens Initiativ til at Iværksatte et arbejdsprogram for
bedømmelse af mulighederne for at Imødegå risikoen forbundet med drivhus¬
effekten og tilslutter sig målsætningerne med dette program ;
opfordrer med lenwtaterne     til   at  samarbejd© aktivt       med Kommissionen om
gennemføre I een af det ovennævnte arbejdsprogram og at samordne deres rele¬
vante aktiviteter vedrørende drivhusproblematikken Inden for disse rammer ;
opfordrer Kommleslonen til Inden midten af 1090 at forelægge Rådet og
Europa-Far lamentet en f remakr I dtarappor t og Inden udgangen af 1991 en
slutrapport om resultaterne af arbejdsprogrammet og om konklusionerne
heraf .