CELEX: 52013PC0388
Language: en
Date: 2013-05-29 00:00:00
Title: Recommendation for a COUNCIL DECISION abrogating Decision 2004/918/EC on the existence of an excessive deficit in Hungary

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		52013PC0388
		
			Recommendation for a COUNCIL DECISION abrogating Decision 2004/918/EC on the existence of an excessive deficit in Hungary /* COM/2013/0388 final */
			
				
		
		
			
			   	Recommendation for a
COUNCIL DECISION
abrogating Decision 2004/918/EC on the
existence of an excessive deficit in Hungary
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,
and in particular Article 126(12) thereof,
Having regard to the recommendation from
the Commission,
Whereas: 
(1)       The Council has decided on
5 July 2004, in accordance with Article 104(6) of the Treaty establishing the
European Community (TEC), that an excessive deficit exists in Hungary and adopted
a recommendation under Article 104(7) TEC with a view to bringing the excessive
deficit situation to an end by 2008[1].
(2)       On 18 January 2005, in
accordance with Article 104(8) TEC, the Council considered that Hungary had not
taken effective action in response to its recommendation and issued another
recommendation based on Article 104(7) TEC on 8 March 2005, confirming the 2008
deadline for the correction of the excessive deficit. On 8 November 2005, the
Council decided that Hungary had for the second time failed to comply with the
recommendations under Article 104(7) TEC. Accordingly, it addressed a third
recommendation under Article 104(7) TEC to Hungary on 10 October 2006,
postponing the deadline for the correction of the excessive deficit to 2009. On
7 July 2009 the Council concluded that the Hungarian authorities could be
considered to have taken effective action in response to the recommendation
from October 2006 and, against the background of the severe economic downturn,
issued a revised recommendation under Article 104(7) TEC, setting once more a
new deadline for correction, i.e. 2011. On 27 January 2010 the Commission
concluded that Hungary had taken effective action in response to the latest
Council recommendations, with which the Council concurred in its conclusions on
16 February 2010, but alerted about considerable risks. 
(3)       According to the
provisions of Article 126(8) TFEU, the Council decided on 24 January 2012 that
Hungary had not taken effective action in response to the July 2009 Council
recommendation within the period laid down in this recommendation. While the 3%
of GDP Treaty reference value was not breached in 2011, this was not based on a
structural and sustainable correction and hinged upon substantial one-off revenues.
This was accompanied by an estimated cumulative structural deterioration of
over 2% of GDP in 2010 and 2011 compared to a recommended cumulative fiscal
improvement of 0.5% of GDP. Moreover, while the authorities were implementing
structural measures in 2012, which were expected to largely offset the previous
deterioration, the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value would again be respected in
2012 only thanks to one-off measures of close to 1% of GDP and would be
breached in 2013. 
(4)       On 13 March 2012, the
Council adopted a new recommendation in accordance with Article 126(7) TFEU for
Hungary to bring the excessive deficit to an end by 2012. The Hungarian
authorities were asked to undertake the following steps in particular: (i) to
put an end to the excessive deficit situation by 2012 in a credible and
sustainable manner; (ii) to undertake an additional fiscal effort of at least
½% of GDP to ensure the attainment of the 2012 deficit target of 2.5% of GDP;
and (iii) to take the necessary additional measures of a structural nature to
ensure that the deficit in 2013 remains well below the 3% of GDP threshold. At
the same time, the government debt ratio was recommended to be brought back on
a declining path as soon as possible so that it represents sufficient progress
towards compliance with the debt reduction benchmark. The budgetary adjustment
also needed to be supported by the proposed improvements in the fiscal
governance framework. The Council established the deadline of 13 September 2012
for the Hungarian government to take effective action. Also on 13 March 2012,
the Council decided to suspend a part of the Cohesion Fund commitment
appropriations for the year 2013 for Hungary (in line with Article 4 of Council
Regulation (EC) No 1084/2006).
(5)       On 30 May 2012, based on
the 2012 convergence programme and further specification of the savings
measures, the Commission concluded that Hungary had taken effective action
regarding the correction of the excessive deficit. In particular, the general
government deficit was expected to reach 2.5% of GDP in 2012 and remained well
below the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value in 2013 as recommended by the
Council in March. Moreover, it was acknowledged that some progress had been
made on enhancing the fiscal governance framework even though in this area
overall progress could have been considered slow. Against this background, the
Commission adopted on 30 May a proposal for lifting the suspension of the
Cohesion Fund commitment appropriations. On 22 June 2012 the Council concurred
with this assessment and adopted a decision lifting the suspension of the Cohesion
Fund commitment appropriations. 
(6)       In accordance with Article
4 of the Protocol on the excessive deficit procedure annexed to the Treaties,
the Commission provides the data for the implementation of the procedure. As
part of the application of this Protocol, Member States have to notify data on
government deficits and debt and other associated variables twice a year,
namely before 1 April and 1 October, in accordance with Article 3 of Council
Regulation (EC) No 479/2009 of 25 May 2009 on the application of the Protocol
on the excessive deficit procedure annexed to the Treaty establishing the
European Community[2].

(7)       When considering whether a
decision on the existence of an excessive deficit should be abrogated, the
Council should take a decision on the basis of notified data. Moreover, a
decision on the existence of an excessive deficit should be abrogated only if
the Commission forecasts indicate that the deficit will not exceed the 3% of
GDP Treaty reference value over the forecast horizon[3].
(8)       Based on data provided by
the Commission (Eurostat) in accordance with Article 14 of Regulation (EC) No 479/2009
following the notification by Hungary before 1 April 2013, the Commission 2013 Spring
Forecast and the assessment of additional corrective measures adopted on 13 May
2013 in a government decree, the following conclusions are warranted:
–              
In 2012, on the basis of a considerable fiscal
effort, the general government deficit reached 1.9% of GDP. This was also
thanks to one-off revenues amounting to ¾% of GDP, including the higher than budgeted one-off revenues of 0.2% of GDP related
to further transfer of assets from the private to the public pension pillar.
The adopted 2012 budget targeted a deficit of 2.5% of GDP on the basis of a
0.5% growth. The budget contained an extraordinary reserve of 1.1% of GDP and numerous
consolidation measures, most notably: (i) revenue-increasing measures of around
1¾% of GDP, including hikes in indirect taxes and social security
contributions; (ii) structural measures on the expenditure side of ¾% of GDP,
such as a review of social benefits; and (iii) expenditure constraints of ¼% of
GDP in the public sector, including a nominal wage freeze in most sectors. In
order to counterbalance the constantly deteriorating growth outlook, the
government adopted two main additional corrective packages in April and October
(totalling 0.7% of GDP), comprising mainly further cuts in the appropriations
of the budgetary institutions, of which around half was implemented. In
addition, the balance of the local government sector improved by around 0.7% of
GDP compared to the budgeted plans, mainly due to their low investment
activity. In the context of the October 2012 EDP Progress Report, the official 2012 deficit target was revised upwards from 2.5% to
2.7% of GDP. Overall, effectively implemented corrective
measures of around 3% of GDP adopted by the central government and the
improvement of the local government sector's balance eventually resulted in a
deficit of 1.9% of GDP, i.e. an overachievement of the original deficit target
by 0.6% of GDP. The activation
of the budgeted extraordinary reserves counterbalanced the budgetary slippages,
partly related to the worse than earlier expected macroeconomic environment.
–              
The Hungarian 2013 convergence programme projects
the general government deficit to stay at 2.7% of GDP in both 2013 and 2014. However,
the Commission 2013 Spring Forecast foresees a deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2013
and 3.3% of GDP in 2014, which suggests that the excessive deficit has not been
brought to an end in a durable way. On 13 May 2013, following the release of
the Commission 2013 Spring Forecast, the Hungarian government adopted further
corrective measures amounting in gross terms to about 0.3% and 0.7% of GDP for 2013
and 2014, respectively. The Commission's updated fiscal assessment, which takes
into account the net deficit improving effect of these additional corrective
measures, projects a deficit of 2.7% and 2.9% in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Thus, the deficit is expected to remain below the Treaty reference value of 3%
of GDP over the forecast horizon. In addition, according to the Commission's
estimation, the cyclically-adjusted budget balance, net of one-off and other
temporary measures, will stand at -¾% and -1½% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, and
hence will be consistent with the Hungarian medium-term objective of -1.7% of
GDP. 
–              
The debt-to-GDP ratio was reduced from a peak of
close to 82% in 2010 to 79.2% in 2012, thanks to substantial one-off capital
transfers linked to the abolition of the mandatory private pension pillar and a
number of consolidation measures. According to the 2013 convergence programme,
the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to decline, falling to 78.1% and 77.2% in
2013 and 2014, respectively, and remaining on a downward path thereafter. Even
after incorporating the impact of the new consolidation measurres adopted on 13
May 2013, the Commission forecasts a higher trajectory for the debt-to-GDP
ratio by around 1 pp for both 2013 and 2014.
(9)       As to fiscal governance,
the Council asked the Hungarian authorities to establish a truly binding
medium-term framework and broaden the analytical remit of the Fiscal Council in
view of its veto right over the annual budget. The 2013 convergence programme announces
the intention to move forward in this area in autumn 2013. Progress will
continue to be closely monitored in the context of the European Semester.
(10)     The Council recalls that,
starting from 2013, which is the year following the correction of the excessive
deficit, Hungary should maintain a fiscal stance in line with its medium-term
objective, including respecting the expenditure benchmark, and make sufficient
progress towards compliance with the debt criterion in accordance with Article
2(1a) of Council Regulation (EC) 1467/97 of July 1997 on speeding up and
clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure.[4]
(11)     In accordance with Article
126(12) of the Treaty, a Council Decision on the existence of an excessive
deficit is to be abrogated when the excessive deficit in the Member State
concerned has, in the view of the Council, been corrected. 
(12)     In the view of the Council,
the excessive deficit in Hungary has been corrected and Decision 2004/918/EC should therefore be abrogated,
HAS ADOPTED THIS DECISION:
Article 1
From an overall assessment it follows that the
excessive deficit situation in Hungary has been corrected.
Article 2
Decision 2004/918/EC is hereby abrogated.
Article 3
This Decision is addressed to Hungary.
Done at Brussels, 
                                                                       For
the Council
                                                                       The
President
[1]               All documents related to the excessive deficit
procedure of Hungary can be found at:          
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/deficit/countries/hungary_en.htm
[2]               OJ L 145, 10.6.2009, p. 1. 
[3]               In line with the “Specifications on the
implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact and Guidelines on the format
and content of Stability and Convergence Programmes”, as agreed by the Economic
and Financial Committee on 3 September 2012. See:            
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/economic_governance/sgp/pdf/coc/code_of_conduct_en.pdf

[4]               OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6.