CELEX: 51983PC0359
Language: en
Date: 1983-07-26
Title: Proposal for a COUNCIL REGULATION (EEC) laying down, in respect of hops, the amount of aid to producers for the 1982 harvest (submitted to the Council by the Commission)#COMMISSION REPORT TO THE COUNCIL on the production and marketing of hops (1982 harvest)

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (83) 359
Vol. 1983/0142
 ---pagebreak--- Disclaimer
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In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983
concerning the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic
Community and the European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as
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file have been declassified in conformity with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation.
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Februar 1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen
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 ---pagebreak---       COMMISSION OF THE E U R O P E A N COMMUNITIES
                                                                            COM(83) 3 5 9 f i n a l
                                                                            B r u s s e l s , 26 J u l y 1 9 8 3 .
                                                         Proposal    f o ra
                                                   COUNCIL REGULATION (EEC)
                 l a y i n g down, i n r e s p e c t o f h o p s , t h e amount o f a i d t o p r o d u c e r s
                                                     for  t h e 1982  harvest
                               (submitted to the C o u n c i l by the Commission)
                                          COMMISSION       REPORT TO T H E COUNCIL
                        on t h e p r o d u c t i o n and marketing      o f hops (1982 h a r v e s t )
COM(83) 3 5 9 f i n a l
 ---pagebreak---                                      EXPLANATORY         MEMORANDUM
 This report, presented                    each    year   according to the disposition of Article                       11
 of R e g u l a t i o n  ( E E C ) No 1 6 9 6 / 7 1 b y t h e C o m m i s s i o n t o t h e C o u n c i l  concerns
 the hops harvest              o f 1982. I t covers            particularly:
- the production               and market s i t u a t i o n :
    a) on t h e w o r l d         level
    b) on t h e Community                Level,
- medium-term f o r e c a s t s ,
- the development               of returns t o the producer.
The     report      i s a c c o m p a n i e d by a p r o p o s a l f o r a i d which i s assessed           by group o f
varieties.          As a r e s u l t , t h e average          amount o f a i d p a s s e s   from      191 E C U / h a i n
1981 t o 2 8 0 E C U / h a i n 1 9 8 2 . T h i s i n c r e a s e i s n e c e s s a r y    due t o a d e c l i n e i n
r e t u r n s i n most o f t h e Community a s a r e s u l t o f a d e p r e s s e d               world    market s i t u a t i o n ,
compounded by v e r y             h e a v y y i e l d s i n t h e Community a t t h e 1982 h a r v e s t .
 ---pagebreak---                                                      P r o p o s a l for    a
                                         COUNCIL REGULATION              (EEC)
l a y i n g down/ i n r e s p e c t o f h o p s , t h e amount o f a i d t o p r o d u c e r s f o r t h e
1982        harvest
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES,
 H a v i n g r e g a r d t o t h e T r e a t y e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e European Economic Community/
 and i n p a r t i c u l a r A r t i c l e 43 t h e r e o f ,
 H a v i n g r e g a r d t o C o u n c i l R e g u l a t i o n (EEC) No 1696/71 o f 26 J u l y 1971 on
 t h e common o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e market i n hops ( 1 ) , as l a s t amended by t h e
  1979 Act o f A c c e s s i o n , and i n p a r t i c u l a r A r t i c l e 12 (7) t h e r e o f ,
  H a v i n g r e g a r d t o t h e p r o p o s a l from t h e C o m m i s s i o n ,
  Having r e g a r d t o t h e o p i n i o n o f t h e European P a r l i a m e n t ( 2 ) ,
   Whereas A r t i c l e 12 o f R e g u l a t i o n (EEC) No 1696/71 p r o v i d e s t h a t a i d may
   be g r a n t e d t o hop p r o d u c e r s t o e n a b l e them t o a c h i e v e a f a i r income;
   w h e r e a s . t h e amount of- t h i s a i d i s f i x e d per h e c t a r e and d i f f e r s a c c o r d i n g
   t o g r o u p s o f v a r i e t i e s / t a k i n g i n t o account t h e average r e t u r n on t h e a r e a s
    i n f u l l p r o d u c t i o n i n c o m p a r i s o n w i t h t h e average r e t u r n s f o r . p r e v i o u s
    h a r v e s t s , the. c u r r e n t p o s i t i o n of t h e market and p r i c e t r e n d s ;
    Whereas an e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e 1982 h a r v e s t sf.o*s t h e need
    to f i x a i d f o r c e r t a i n g r o u p s o f v a r i e t i e s o f hops c u l t i v a t e d i n t h e
     Community;
     Whereas hops c u l t i v a t e d i n G r e e c e a r e e l i g i b l e f o r a i d as from t h e               1981
     h a r v e s t ; w h e r e a s , p u r s u a n t t o A r t i c l e 90 o f t h e 1979 A c t o f A c c e s s i o n ,
     A r t i c l e 68 o f t h a t A c t s h o g l d a p p l y f o r p u r p o s e s o f c a l c u l a t i n g t h e amount
     o f t h e a i d f o r hops h a r v e s t e d i n G r e e c e ;
      1) OJ NO L 175, 4.8.1971, p. 1.
 ---pagebreak---                                                           -2-
 HAS ADOPTED THIS REGULATION:
                                                       Article 1
 1. F o r t h e 1982 h a r v e s t , a i d s h a l l be g r a n t e d t o t h e p r o d u c e r s o f hops
       cultivated          I n t h e Community f o r t h e groups o f v a r i e t i e s s e t out i n
      t h e Annex.
2. The amount o f t h e a i d s h a l l be as s e t out i n t h e Annex.
                                                       Article 2
T h i s R e g u l a t i o n s h a l l e n t e r I n t o f o r c e on t h e t h i r d day f o l l o w i n g i t s p u b l i ­
c a t i o n i n t h e O f f i c i a l J o u r n a l o f t h e EurODean Communities.
T h i s R e g u l a t i o n s h a l l be b i n d i n g 1n i t s e n t i r e t y and d i r e c t l y a p p l i c a b l e
i n a l l Member States..
ram      .at B r u s s e l s ,
                                                                               For t h e C o u n c i l
 ---pagebreak---                                                   ANNEX
A i d g r a n t e d f o r the. 1982 h a r v e s t t o hop   p r o d u c e r s i n t h e Community
Grouo o f v a r i e t i e s                                             A i d (ECU/ha)
                                                      For t h e Community
                                                      as a t 31 December 1980                For G r e e c e
Aromatic                                                        350                              77,5
Bitter                                                          200                              41,0
Others'                                                         350                              77,5
 ---pagebreak---                    COMMISSION REPORT TO THE COUNCIL
                    ON THE PRODUCTION AND MARKETING
                           OF HOPS (1982 HARVEST)
 CONTENTS
                                                 Page
Introduction                                     1
World Situation:                                6
   - 1.1 Structure of the market                 6
   - 1.2 Patterns of International Trade         7
   - 1.3 The International Market in 1982/3 10
   - 1.4 The 1982 world harvest                11
   - 1.5 Medium-term forecasts for the
          world market:                        13
          - Structure of the International
            market                             13
          - Medium-term balance of the
            world market                       16
European Community:
   - II.1 Situation i n 1982                   19
   - II. 2 Medium-term forecasts for the       24.
            Community
   - II.3 1982 Community harvest               26
          - Areas under hops                   26
          - Prices and contracts               27
          - Returns per hectare                28
Conclusions:                                  30
Units and Abbreviations                        35
List of Tables and Graphs                     37
Statistical Appendix:
          - Tables 1 - 1 7
          - Graphs 1 -12
 ---pagebreak---                           COMMISSION REPORT TO THE COUNCIL
                       ON THE PRODUCTION AND MARKETING OF HOPS
                                        (1982 HARVEST)
   This        report   i s the twelfth that the Commission has l a i d before
   the Council on the production             and marketing       of   hops   of   each
   successive         crop since the adoption o f the common organization of
   the market i n hops i n 1971, as provided             for in Article        11 of
  Council Regulation (EEC) No. 1696/71.
  The       conclusions     to each report include proposals on a i d t o hop
  producers, where necessary, to afford a supplement to the income
  derived         from   the previous calendar year's harvest. This report
 deals with that of 1982.
 I t i s impossible f o r       the Commission,       a t the outset        of   this
 report,          to conceal the f a c t that the outlook on the world market
 for hops a t the time of going t o press i s very threatening i n the
 short-term.          After  a   1981 crop      which    i n a l l main     producer
 countries both inside and outside the Community                  was   broadly i n
line       with     overall   needs,     and thus    f u l l y compensated f o r the
s h o r t f a l l caused by the inadequate harvest of 1980 i n the Federal
Republic,          the world's largest producer, world area i n 1982 rose
by a further 2%,           and production was a l l o f 21% higher         than i n
the previous year.
 ---pagebreak---                                                       2
   Following         the       growing r e a l i z a t i o n that i t was fast outstripping
   demand, a tendency which already characterized the market in                                   the
   mid-seventies,              the       increase      i n area began to be mitigated by a
   small amount            of      grubbing        and    non-harvesting.         The    danger    of
   runaway expansion had been detected by the Commission as early as
   1979,   a f t e r the substantial reduction                   in      area     and    consequent
   re-balancing           of       the      world    market achieved by the Community by
  means of the s t r u c t u r a l measures adopted by the Council in                           1977.
  The    last       three Annual Reports have in consequence contained the
  appropriate warning i n t h e i r Introductions.
  The    proportion            of       forseeable       production        in    the     Community
  committed f o r d i s p o s a l under pluriannual contracts (other than i n
 Belgium, and i n the United Kingdom a f t e r 1985)                           continues     to   be
 satisfactorily              high.         A   goodly     proportion        of   these contracts
 continue to be at high                      prices offered i n 1979          and    particularly
 following         the       inadequate          1980 harvest in the Federal Republic.
However, a record crop i n                      1982    in   the   Federal        Republic      (28%
 higher      than the five-year average tonnage) caused prices for the
consequently          large remaining amount of (jommunity                      hops available
on    the     spot or free market to plunge to levels approximating to
those of the l a s t bottom trough of the cycle i n 1977. Despite the
continuing          s a t i s f a c t o r y contract p r i c e l e v e l s , therefore, grower
returns have suffered i n a l l Member                        States       except     the   United
Kingdom.
 ---pagebreak--- The   grave    danger i s therefore that, since low p r i c e s encouraged
brewers to purchase             the     1982   crop    without    much    hesitation,
Ccranunity   stock      l e v e l s a t the eve of the 1983 harvest w i l l turn
out to be very high and the 1983 crop                  marketed    very    sluggishly
even   if    only      average        in    size,   with   consequent      very great
pressure on contract prices.
The Commission shares the view that the l i k e l y 2000 ha                 reduction
in world area f o r the 1983 crop i s not nearly enough. The current
world area now appears to be about 14% greater than the 84000                          ha
first    recommended       in      the    report    on   the   1979   harvest to be
appropriate f o r 1982. This acreage recommendation                  may    well      now
appear    to   have     been a l i t t l e conservative, taking i n t o account
better knowledge which since then has                  become   available     of     the
world    market,      but nevertheless world demand f o r beer has f a i l e d
to  maintain      the    levels        of    annual    increase    reached    in     the
nineteen-seventies,          and     the     dosage    itself   of hops i n beer i s
undoubtedly continuing to d e c l i n e slowly.            Taking    a l l available
information     i n t o account, including the need t o f u l f i l l e x i s t i n g
contract sales,        the     Commission       takes    the   view   that    in     the
medium-term     world      acreage        should    not   be allowed t o exceed an
absolute maximum of 90 000 ha as compared with the                    estimated        96
000   of   the    1982     crop.       This    area    would seem t o be p e r f e c t l y
adequate    to    satisfy        overall      demand    even   in   the    event      of
under-average harvests, i f stock l e v e l s are taken i n t o account.
 ---pagebreak---                                         4
 On  the world l e v e l , i t i s none the less clear that the exchanges
 of information and views which the Commission, working              in    close
 collaboration         with    the professional organizations i n the sector
 constituted a t both Community and international level has               sought
 to  promote       over      the  past  few   years  between   the   principal
 producing countries have not remained            entirely   without    effect.
This i s r e f l e c t e d i n the beginnings of voluntary grubbing on both
 sides of the A t l a n t i c announced f o r the 1983 crop.
Admittedly, any           concept   of  a   rigidly  static   balance    on   so
 inelastic    a commodity market as that for hops would be i l l u s o r y ,
and the most that can reasonably be sught             is   rather  a   dynamic
balance,     within acceptable l i m i t s , as between user (i.e. brewer)
demand, and p r i c e l e v e l s a t  which   production   continues    to   be
viable.   Thus,          in   the  United   States,  stagnating   prices     and
contract sales over the past two years have undoubtedly played as
large   a r o l e as any other element in persuading growers to grub.
A large measure of agreement i s f o r the f i r s t time discernible as
to the causes and location of the problem and the need f o r urgent
adjustment of supply p o t e n t i a l to within a     reasonable    range    of
demand.    I t i s to be hoped that positive action w i l l follow these
expressions of cooperation.
 ---pagebreak---                                            5
As       regards          the    Cornmunity,  i t continues  to  maintain i t s
all-important             export   market,   and  as  stated  above    the  high
contract            level   would   seem   to  preclude the need f o r more than
moderate area reduction. The Commission has therefore                 not  found
it        appropriate         to    propose   either  structural  measures    or
r e s t r i c t i v e conditions as to the payment of the a i d f o r the   1982
crop,         as     provided    i n Regulation 1696/71. Nevertheless, i n the
event of a very depressed market following an abundant 1983 crop,
 it     reserves        the   right    to put forward accompanying measures i n
addition to any a i d proposal.
 ---pagebreak---                                      6
I. WORLD SITUATION
1.1 Structure of the market (Tables 1 & 2, graphs                  1-4)
     Since substantial quantities of hops are traded on the world
     market,           many   more     countries being    consumers      (i.e. beer
     producers) than hop producers, prices are greatly influenced
     by      the       relationship      between  supply   and   demand a t world
     l e v e l . In p r a c t i c e , prices everywhere tend t o   follow      those
     prevailing           on    the    markets of the main producer countries,
     except where i n t e r n a l l y fixed a t a central l e v e l .
     Thus the world            market     may  be  said   to   consist      of  five
     r e l a t i v e l y homogenous sectors:
     1 - Community                                    : net exporter i n 1981
                                                        -82 of 28% of i t s
                                                        production
                                                         (1980-81 l e v e l : 23%)
     2 - United States                                : net exporter in 1981
                                                        -82 of 33% of i t s
                                                        production
                                                         (1980-81 l e v e l : 53%)
     3 - Cane con                                     : net importer of 5 -
                                                        10% of i t s require­
                                                        ments
     4 - Other main producer countries                : net importers of 5 -
                                                        10% of their require
                                                        rrents
    5 - Other countries, mainly non-producers:
                                                        net importers of 95%
                                                        of their requirements
 ---pagebreak---                                                    7
1.2. Patterns of international trade
      Substantial         q u a n t i t i e s are,    of  course, traded within and
      between     each        of     these     sectors,    and    the   Community         in
      particular        is     very dependant f o r i t s o u t l e t s on the United
      States (which i s a substantial net exporter of                      bitter       hops
      but    imports         large        amounts     of  aromatic     hops       from   the
      Community)        and      the      third    world.    Practically          all    the
      developing        countries           are non-producers except the People's
     Republic of China, which i s estimated usually to have                            about
      40   000       Ztr       available         for   export   after     its       domestic
      requirement.         Most       of     the   other   state-trading countries
      increase     their         area       only   in   line   with    their       own  beer
     production, which f o r reasons                 of   currency     shortage        among
     others i s now increasing only very marginally. The exception
     to this i s the People's Republic of China,                     which c u r r e n t l y
     projects      a     20% annual r a t e of increase i n beer production,
     admittedly from a very small current per capita                         consumption
     and   a   l i t t l e export (beer production i n 1982 was                  stated by
     Chinese sources to have been 12.3 mio                     hi   or   not       yet   one
     eighth    that        of the Federal Republic, which i t s e l f only has
     one-sixteenth of China's population.)
     The Introduction to this report necessarily concentrated                             on
     the   supply-side            aspects       of   the current s i t u a t i o n . On the
 ---pagebreak---                                        8
demand side, i t has to be concluded that the overall                 annual
 rate of increase i n world beer production has decreased from
the 3% or more which prevailed i n the nineteen-seventies                   to
 less   than    2%.      To  visualize     what this means for producer
countries i t should be           recalled     that  at current      hopping
rates    even     t h i s one-percent of world beer production means
over 23 000 Z t r of hops, i n other words almost              the    entire
production o f a smaller producer such as France.
Under    these conditions, i t i s necessary once again to refer
to the increasing competitiveness of this market not only in
terms of hop production, but also by reference, to the demand
f o r alpha, i . e . the combination         of   active   ingredients i n
hops    sought     after     by    brewers     which give beer i t s b i t t e r
flavour    and a i d preservation. Prices              are    increasingly
determined      not      simply    by quantity      of   hops but by their
content i n alpha or "bittering value". Hops from the United
States    a r e becoming        increasingly      competitive   i n that an
increasing proportion of U.S. area i s being               replanted    with
newly    developed v a r i e t i e s giving consistent very high alpha
content,     even      within    the l i m i t s  of  the overall       area
reduction      taking place i n that country. This means that the
brewer's b i t t e r i n g  requirements       can be   obtained    from      a
smaller quantity of hops.
 ---pagebreak---                                               9
      Seven        countries    are    normally        net exporters  of   hops:
      estimates of t h e i r surplus of production           over   requirements
      are given below:
      1982:     Z t r (= 50 kg) rounded t o nearest 5000
                              PRODUCTION        DOMESTIC     SURPLUS
                                                REQUIREMENT
      F.R. Germany        (1) 840 000            225 000     615 000
      United States (2) 720 000                  380 000     340 000
      Czechoslovakia          250 000            110 000     140 000
      Jugoslavia              110 000              45 000     65 000
      Australia                55 000              25 000     30 000
      Poland                   45 000              35 000     10 000
      China (P.R. )            90 000              50 000     40 000
      T o t a l amount of hops p o t e n t i a l l y
      available f o r international trade                  1 240 000
       (i.e. 42% of 1982 production)
(1) Harvest 28 percent ever 12-yr. average tonnage, but very low average alpha
content (see table 1): i n f a c t the " b i t t e r i n g value" produced i s no greater
than that of the 1981 crop, which was of broadly average q u a l i t y and amount.
(2) Based on hopping r a t i o of 82 grammes per h e c t o l i t r e (source: U.S. Dept.
of Agriculture)
 ---pagebreak---                                                 10
1.3. The International Market i n 1982/1983 (Tables 9 and 10;
      graphs 4,5,7,8)
      The       Community      continued     to   hold   i t s own    on the export
      market, and indeed net exports of hops and hop products rose
      once       again     to 13 240 tonnes (whole hop equivalent) for the
      marketing year Sept. 1981 - Aug. 1982 a f t e r a drop to 10 600
      tonnes         in   the previous year. The Federal Republic attained
      i t s highest- ever          level   of    exports    i f both    intra-   and
     extra-Community trade i s taken into account. Community gross
     exports to t h i r d countries a t 22 682 tonnes were twice their
     1973        level,     whereas    U.S.    exports    to    the Community have
     m u l t i p l i e d by four. Again since 1973, Community imports from
     all       t h i r d countries have risen by 20%, the United States by
     23%.
     Well over half the t o t a l world harvest i s now              estimated   to
     be     processed        after    harvesting into products - powders and
     extracts. T h e i r increasing usage over the past               two   decades
    has       undoubtedly        contributed     to the worldwide reduction i n
    hopping r a t i o s , which has i t s e l f     played     a   major   role  in
     slowing          down   the   rise   i n demand, in conjunction with the
    stagnation i n           beer   production     already     referred    to.  The
    technological           economies     i n hopping thus achieved have been
    compounded, as described              in    previous    reports,    by   public
    demand,           both in the industrialized countries and i n the new
 ---pagebreak---                                                   11
     export outlets               represented     by    the      developing   and      newly
     i n d u s t r i a l i z e d countries, f o r l i g h t e r and less b i t t e r beers.
     Moreover,             the    scarcity    of   hops         of   certain      hitherto
     particularly                sought-after      varieties         in    1980/81,       and
     corresponding very high spot market                        prices,   seem     to    have
     brought           about a further reduction i n hopping i n many cases,
     which i s u n l i k e l y        to   change    upwards       again   with     greater
     a v a i l a b i l t y and lower prices.
1.4. The 1982 world harvest (Tables 1 and 5; graphs 5,8,10)
     After         the       broadly     average hop y i e l d s i n most countries i n
     1981       (1.39 tonnes per hectare o v e r a l l ) , the Commission notes
     an      exceptionally high              average      yield,      reflected      i n most
      countries, of 1.50               t/ha i n 1982. Despite 530 ha grubbed               and
      a further 830 ha l e f t to stand a t harvest-time in the United
      States, almost exactly thesame weight was                        harvested      as    in
      1981.        The       very heavy crop i n the Federal Republic and most
      other grower countries has already                       been   referred      to.    The
      result          i s worth        underlining: the 1981 world harvest was a
      quarter-of-a-mi 11ion Zentner or 10% heavier than that of the
      preceding year, and t h i s was              compounded by an almost exactly
      i d e n t i c a l r i s e f o r the 1982    crop.
      The immediate result of t h i s was                   the    marked   reduction       in
      spot        market         prices i n the Community t o very low l e v e l s due
      to the higher quantity thus becoming a v a i l a b l e on                    the    free
      market.           These      now    approximate       to those which had already
 ---pagebreak---                                                        12
     prevailed i n the United States since 1981, and a                          disastrous
     decline          in     growers'         returns i n the Community for the          1982
     harvest has             been     avoided         only   by    the  relatively     large
     proportion            of production (68% even of this very large crop,
     which would have been 95% i f the harvest had                          been   average)
     guaranteed            an     outlet       by     existing     satisfactorily    priced
     contracts.
     I t was       noted      in    the      Commission's        1981   report    that    the
     harvest         of that year had been marketed briskly without spot
     prices having f a l l e n unacceptably, even i f a                    decline     (86%)
     from       the     extraordinary              levels of 1980 was inevitable. The
     reason         for       this       apparently          balanced     situation      was
    undoubtedly               that     stocks        had    not   thereby    increased     to
    abnormally          high l e v e l s (see Table 3, l i n e 6: before the            1982
    harvest          (i.e. 1         Sept.        1982) world stocks would appear to
    have been i n f a c t only s l i g h t l y over               the  six-month     norm).
    The       1982      harvest        was a l s o marketed more easily, thanks to
    the cheap spot hops a v a i l a b l e , and possibly also due to                     the
    r e l a t i v e d e c l i n e i n i n t e r e s t rates, i n the Community than i n
    the United States, but i t                      is   to   be   feared   that   a   high
    proportion           of      i t will         have    been stocked by brewers, and
    accessorily              by      merchants,           over     and   above       normal
    requirements.              This     i s reflected i n the projected excess of
    stocks amounting to 26 000 tonnes or 43% over the                            six-month
    norm as a t 1 Sept.               1983.
(2)
 ---pagebreak---                                               13
     In      the Federal Republic of Germany, prices were as set cut
     below:
     P r i c e per Z t r                  Free market                     Contract p r i c e
      (50 KG) i n ECU          1979         1980       1981     1982      1981      1982
     Varieties:
     Aromatic
     Hallertauer               140.62       557.83     257.47   74.94     155.84  167.75
     Tettnanger                171.49       655.95     265.00  104.85     182.84  202.31
     Hersbruecker Spaet 145.80              492.05     220.96   52.81     149.06  160.76
     Bitter
     Northern Brewer           119.42       477.88     263.49   85.43     132.50  143.68
     Brewers Gold              111.50       472.79     190.09   46.60     123.09  134.74
1.5. Medium-term forecasts f o r the world market
1.5.1. Structure of the International Market
     The Cjommission maintains i t s remarks made in the            report    on
     the      1981   harvest under this same section, i n p a r t i c u l a r as
     regards the continuing preference on              the part    of   certain
     large      U.S.   and   developing        country  brewers f o r Canmunity
     hops. However, the a v a i l a b i l i t y of cheap alpha acid     on the
     world      market   i n the form o f hop extracts, with a very long
     shelf l i f e , has increasingly come          to mean   that    in  those
     cases where a brewer can simplify h i s "recipe" and thus save
     costs and increase security of supply by              excluding    demands
     for special v a r i e t i e s , he w i l l do so. The exceptions to this
     rule are happily formed            by    many  Community  brewers,     both
     large and small, i n addition t o the largest U.S. brewer with
     30% of the domestic beer market (70 m i l l i o n        hectolitres     or
     two-thirds       of  the e n t i r e output of the Federal Republic i n
     1981), who continue to purchase a substantial proportion of
 ---pagebreak---                                                     14
  their          requirement i n the form of cone hops or products from
  the Community.              The       limited      supply      of   certain    Community
  varieties,            aromatic i n p a r t i c u l a r , means that a substantial
  premium over prices prevailing elsewhere                            will   be   paid   to
  secure          them.     But in the long term t h i s advantage cannot be
  reckoned           upon     to     protect        the    Community's      market   share
  indefinitely,             e s p e c i a l l y at the price differences currently
  e x i s t i n g between contracts for Community supplies                      and    spot
 market l e v e l s i n the             U.S.
 A     word       must      be     added as to growers' t a c t i c a l approach to
 committing successive harvests under contract. In the                                U.S.,
 the very high p r i c e s generated by the small Federal Republic
 harvest           of    1980      incited        the    U.S.    Hops      Administrative
 Committee            to    raise        the "saleable" percentage for the crop
 years         up     to   1984       to      130%    of    U.S.    total     requirement
 (including contracted exports). This gave many U.S.                             planters
the opportunity to                  follow       the     example     of   those   in   the
Community and s e l l ahead at these very good price levels. At
the same time i t was                 realized on both sides of the             Atlantic
that         such      prices       were       bound    to cause the very excess of
speculative planting over and above that amount                              secured    by
contracts           which       i s a t the root of the present imbalance on
the world           market.          A     reduction       in    this   U.S.    "saleable
quantity"              has    been tentatively announced but only for the
harvests as from               1985.
 ---pagebreak---                                        15
  For a combination of reasons more growers reacted                       correctly
  to the near certainty of a downturn i n the market by s i g n i n g
  contracts f o r at l e a s t a basic portion           of      their   potential
  crops   up   to  1987      i n the Community than d i d i n the United
  States. The negative aspect of            this     situation         is   however
  that,   quite   aside      from   the     reduction          in   grower income
 brought about by the         low   1982      spots,       which,     as    already
 indicated,     will  continue       or    worsen        if      the 1983   crop i s
 average i n quantity l e t alone higher, lower priced contracts
 being    signed as from now w i l l begin to have t h e i r e f f e c t on
 successive years' o v e r a l l income. This may               wall    rrean  that
 even   with   some   further       grubbing       in     1983, mostly i n the
 United States, an improvement in market balance may not show
 itself    before 1985 or 1986. An examination of sample p r i c e s
offered f o r contracts beyond 1984 i n f a c t reveals the danger
that,    without    seme     element of much higher-priced contract
sales and/or reasonable         spot p r i c e s ,  o v e r a l l returns     could
be   inadequate    to    cover     rising       costs of production. This
would force further grubbing which might otherwise not                         have
taken    place and thus further endanger the Community's share
of the market.
                                                                                     4
 ---pagebreak---                                                  16
1.5.2     Medium-term balance of the world              market     (Tables     3/4    and
        7/8: graphs 5,6,7,10)
        From     estimates announced by the various producer countries,
        i t i s clear that there w i l l at          least   a   2   000    ha   or    2%
       reduction i n world area f o r the 1983 crop. Whether more area
       w i l l be grubbed o r at least          not    harvested     in   the    United
       States,       over and above the 10% reduction already announced,
      depends b a s i c a l l y on the     development      of    prices ever        the
      coming       few    months:     by   the time this report i s before the
      Council the U.S.         area "strung" f o r harvest         will    have    been
      confirmed. A very depressed market situation i n that country
      has      persisted     to    date,    with     very   little    interest       in
     contracts         beyond     1984 and indeed even lower prices than i n
     the Community f o r 1982 spot hops, when the l a t t e r have                been
     sold a t a l l . (see Tables 2 and 5). As a t 1 Sept. 1982 stocks
     i n the United States were 37% higher than a year                   previously
     (Community:         29%).    The    major    de-stocking      of   1980/81 has
    therefore been more than compensated on both                    sides     of   the
    Atlantic          over      the   past    two    years,    and   the    moderate
    encouragement of higher stock               levels     deriving     from    cheap
    spot       hops    and,    secondarily,       lower    interest     rates    than
    heretofore, which can be detected i n the Community, does not
   appear        to    have    had   the sane effect in the United States.
   Moreover, i t may be expected that credit w i l l                not     continue
   easily        to   be    available      for     new   area   development, the
   produce        of    which    is   not    guaranteed     an     outlet      under
  piuri-annual contracts.
 ---pagebreak---                                         17
It   emerges      from the a l t e r n a t i v e forecasts suggested                (table
4) that even a very modest y i e l d i n 1983                 (1.34 t/ha) from an
area   f u l l y 5 000 ha less than that recorded i n the world i n
1982, although producing a             weight       of      hops        only     1%    over
projected       demand f o r 1983, would cause a stock l e v e l on the
eve of the 1984 harvest 31% higher than                       the      conventionally
adopted      six-month       norm.  The worst hypothesis (alternative
IV) of a high y i e l d (1.46        t/ha       -   still         lower        than    this
year's) on an area reduced only by the 2 000 ha announced t o
date would r e s u l t in 55% excess stock.
I t follows that a greater reduction of                     area         for    the     1983
harvest        than      that    already          undertaken             i s absolutely
imperative i f the balance on t h i s market i s                       not     to   be    so
disturbed       that     a   panic reaction t o anything except a very
small 1983 harvest, and the ensuing f a i l u r e of                         spot   prices
to   rise      even modestly, force so large an area reduction as
to cause i n s e c u r i t y of supply in the short-term                      once   again
and   with i t the beginnings of new               i l l - c o n s i d e r e d expansion.
 ---pagebreak---                                                18
  I f supply p o t e n t i a l can be brought back t o within reasonable
  l i m i t s without delay, there i s every prospect that a lasting
 balance, within            the natural           limits  referred   t o in the
 introduction, can be achieved and preserved.
 In such a s i t u a t i o n , f i r s t l y , future spot price fluctuations
 would         be confined t o the amplitude             determined     by   yield
 variations. Secondly, the international hop trade, which has
 to face such rapid and extreme variations i n price from year
 to      year       whilst being bound, on the other hand, by delivery
and p r i c e constraints from i t s brewer              customers     formalized
 in      piuri-annual       commitments,           would be spared much of the
 i n s e c u r i t y under which i t has had to labour for          many    years
past.         Thirdly,     considered         expansion   of area    could take
place,           by   international       concertation     to    the     apparent
beginnings of which a l l u s i o n was made in the introduction to
t h i s report, only where j u s t i f i e d by demand development. The
latter          i s most    l i k e l y to come about in the developing and
newly-industrializing countries and might                     well   not begin
until         a     clear  end i s seen           to the current  international
recession.
 ---pagebreak---                                    19
I I . The European Comnunity
II.1. S i t u a t i o n i n 1982 (Tables 1, 2, 9,            and    12   -    17;    graphs
2,3,4,7,8,9)
         In    1982    the    Community accounted f o r 29% of the world area
        under      hops    and    39%   of     world     hops    production       (but    an
        estimated        37%   of   the    t o t a l world alpha acid o r b i t t e r i n g
        requirement). In 1981 i t had accounted f o r 28%                   of    the   hop
        area     and    35%    of the world harvest. The Ctommission further
        notes that, whereas          the    varieties       with    high     alpha     acid
        content        and    the      aromatic         varieties      had      accounted
        respectively f o r 29% and          70%      of   Community     production       in
       1971,      the     corresponding       figures f o r 1982 were 50% and           48%
       respectively (cf.          50%    and      48%    in  1981,     unchanged      from
       1980).
       In     1982   Community      production         was   1   127 496 Ztr (56 375
       tonnes) from an area of 27 566 ha.                  This   area     was    800   ha
      greater       than     in   1981    and 2 200 ha more than i n 1980.             The
      changes over the past two years may be broken down by Member
      State as follows:
                                                                 ha  +/-
                                                 1982 c f 1981          1982 c f 1980
      Federal Republic of Germany                     +796                   +2031
      France                                            -10                       -7
      Belgium                                           +14                     +37
      United Kingdom                                                           +153
      Ireland + Greece p.m.                _
     T o t a l area increase EC ("10")                  800                    2214
 ---pagebreak---                                                   20
    Production          was      up 22% on 1981 and 25% above the average of
    crops since 1972. In terms of b i t t e r i n g value, however,                the
   very        large     Federal German crop only produced 7% more alpha
   a c i d than i n the previous year or 14% more than the                    average
   since         1972.    Alpha      yields     i n both France and Belgium ware
   a l s o below average, and the result was that despite                    a   good
   crop        in    the    United     Kingdom, the overall alpha content of
  Community hops was only 5.7% as opposed to the. 6.45%                      of 1981
  and the 6.2% average since 1972.
  As     described under section 1.3 above, Community net exports
  rose s a t i s f a c t o r i l y once more after a f a l l in      the    previous
 year,         gross     exports       to  t h i r d countries i n 1981-82 having
 accounted f o r 49% of the 1981 crop, and imports 21%. 85%                        of
 net exports were accounted f o r by the Federal Republic.
Turning           to   demand      within     the    Community, beer production
 continues to stagnate or r i s e only                  very   modestly    in most
Member            States,      whether    because       of   stabilization    at    a
r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l    (Belgium)      or    for  deeper   and   more
general          economic        reasons   including        changing   consumption
patterns. In the Federal                 Republic,       a   slight  increase     of
about        1%     seems to be l i k e l y for 1982, and i t i s satisfying
 ---pagebreak---                                      21
to note that i n I t a l y , and t o a lesser           degree   France,   the
marked   decline      i n table wine consumption i s a t l e a s t being
accompanied by a r i s e i n the case of beer. However, f o r              the
second   year   running       a  marked        fall      in  consumption   was
registered i n the United Kingdom, and the t o t a l decrease               in
that Member State now amounts to 12% since the peak o f 1979.
Demand f o r hops on both a world and a Community basis cannot
be exactly calculated, i n the absence of precise information
as to the amount of hops used by each brewer                   in   his  beer,
but  has    to  be      derived   by i n f e r e n t i a l modelling from the
available data on both hops and beer production. In the case
of  the   Community model, t h i s can be done with a r e l a t i v e l y
greater   degree      of    confidence         thanks       to   the    annual
                                                                              1
declarations    by      the   brewers',        merchants',      and   growers
professional organizations of Community stock l e v e l s , and o f
course also o f f i c i a l trade s t a t i s t i c s .
 ---pagebreak---                                                 22
     Thus,         demand i n terms of hops within the Community seems to
      be s t i l l d e c l i n i n g a t a rate of 3.5% annually (1) f o r 1981 -
      1982.          This      gradual     decline   continues    to   reflect    the
      increasing technological economies achieved, inter                    alia   by
      the      use      of more and batter hop products, i n hop usage. The
     point i s reinforced by the               apparently    steeper     decline in
     demand          f o r alpha      acid   than f o r hops within the Community
      (2). These figures, when compared t o                the   equivalent     rates
     for       the world market (Tables 7/8; graphs 5, 5A, 6), further
     bear out the importance                to  the   Community    of    the   export
     market i f i t s share of the l a t t e r i s to be maintained.
     On      the p r i c e front, the most noticeable feature of the 1982
     market was the rapid further drop of spot prices to very low
     levels,           as compared with the moderate levels of 1981 and i n
     p a r t i c u l a r with the extremely high         levels   of   1980,    which
     reflected            the       shortage   of  specific     varieties    i n the
     last-mentioned crop. These were the clearest                    indication    of
     the      very       substantial       surplus   now   present    on   the world
     market.
(1) see tables 12/13, l i n e 4.
(2) see tables 14/15, l i n e s 9 and 10
 ---pagebreak---                                           23
 I t has to be added, nevertheless, that within the Community,
 although        some   hops    not    committed under contract remained
 unsold as a t 31 March 1983, more e s p e c i a l l y i n     Belgium       and
 France,       with    some   i n the United Kingdom, average contract
 prices i n f a c t rose s l i g h t l y again   due   to  the   continuing
 effect      of    high-priced      contracts    from 1979 and e s p e c i a l l y
 1980. T h i s , combined with the r e l a t i v e l y rapid sale   of       the
 bulk of the spot hops available thanks to the a t t r a c t i v e           new
 low p r i c e s , helped t o avoid an even greater f a l l in       average
grower returns. Although             the advance contract market in the
Federal       Republic    quietened        considerably    perhaps     fairly
early on (end 1982), this was doubtless as much a r e f l e c t i o n
of the large amount of existing contracts covering                 much       of
domestic        requirement     for     the   years ahead, as of the f a c t
that brewers had stocked up heavily on cheap 1982 spot hops.
Furthermore,         spot   buying by Producer Groups a l s o helped t o
maintain a c e r t a i n firmness i n the market.
 ---pagebreak---                                                 24
       The quantités sold on the free market in the Community                  have
       been as follows i n recent years. The comparison with average
       spot p r i c e s i n the Federal Republic         has    been  appended   to
       demonstrate            the   extent    to   which   these    are  inversely
       proportional t o spot market a v a i l a b i l i t y . (1)
                                         Ztr sold           Weighted average
                                                             of spot prices
                                          (most important varieties)
                                without contract            DM
                               1982      363  795            167
                               1981      154  754            606
                               1980        67 385          1400
                               1979      150  000            533
                               1978      166  000            290
                               1977      327  000           128
                               1976     174   000           264
                               1975     203   000           221
II. 2  Medium-term forecasts f o r the Community (Tables 12 - 15)
      According to the previsions of the              producer     Member   States
      themselves,         Community     area    to  be registered f o r the 1983
      harvest w i l l be 500 ha or nearly 2% less than the 1982               crop
      area,    half       of this reduction being i n the Federal Republic
      and almost a          further    third   in   the   United    Kingdom.   The
      resulting       t o t a l area of 27 058 ha, at average yields, would
      produce between 48 000 and 52 000 tonnes or                 about  8%   less
(1) See a l s o t a b l e 5 and graph 8 f o r comparison with U.S. )
 ---pagebreak---                                                25
     than i n 1982, but nevertheless around 12% more than i n 1981,
     the       latter   crop being estimated t o have been reasonably i n
     line,       within   the   Community,        with  internal   demand    plus
     exports i n 1981-82.
     Sales       under advance contract to date f o r 1983 are estimated
     at 39 650 tonnes (see Table 2): therefore, even i n the                  case
     of an average crop on the above basis, anything up to 13                  000
     tonnes (260 000 Ztr) might be offered from               the   1983    crop.
     This amount, as w i l l be readily deduced from the spot market
     volume figures given above, i s already 45% higher               than     the
     average       1975   -   1981,     and     of  course  in   the event of a
     higher-than-average y i e l d i n the Community          might   be     still
     higher.       Internal Community demand i n the same period can be
     estimated t o have f a l l e n by 8%, although exports have            risen
     by 20%.
     According        to  the   Commission's forecasts, a r e l a t i v e l y low
     y i e l d and stationary exports would r e s u l t in stock        of    hops
      (1)      at  the   eve   of    the 1984 harvest amounting t o 105% of
     estimated annual demand, whereas s l i g h t l y lower exports            and
     a higher y i e l d would r e s u l t in a figure of 143%.(2)
(1) Table 13, l i n e 8, a l t e r n a t i v e 1
(2) i b i d . , alternative IV; cf.Tab. 15, l i n e s 16/18.
 ---pagebreak---                                                 26
II.3 1982 Comnunity harvest
II.3.1 Area under Hops (Table 1)
     In 1982 the area under hops                in the   Community  once   again
     increased from 26 698 ha to 27 566 ha.
     There was a reduction i n the following varieties:
     Hallertauer                      W.G.V.         Viking
     Hueller                          Tutsham (>0)    Strisselspalt
     Challenger                       Bramling X     Bourgogne
     Progress                         Saxon          Perle
     Saaz                             Bullion        Record
     Goldings                         Keysworth's Midseason
     and an increase i n the following:
     Tettnanger                       Star            Target
     Hersbruecker                     Northdown      Yeoman
     Zenith                           N. Brewer      Brewers' gold
     O v e r a l l , therefore, aromatic varieties have increased by 212
     ha, b i t t e r v a r i e t i e s by 524 ha. Of the registered varieties,
     no plantings of Tutsham or T r i p l o i d appear to be extant.
     On t h i s area, production was 1 127 496 Ztr or 56 375 tonnes,
     g i v i n g an average y i e l d of 40.9 Ztr or 2.04 tonnes       per   ha,
     the highest         recorded.
 ---pagebreak---                                              27
New plantings (1)
       In 1981, 1543 hectares i n the Ccmnunity ware i n t h e i r         first
       year  of    production,        having    been   planted i n the previous
       year. I t w i l l b e recalled that      European   growers   expect   an
       average   yield       of   40%   at   the    first  harvest, 65% a t the
       second, a f u l l y i e l d from the t h i r d year onwards.
III.3.2 Prices and Contracts (2)
       Hop prices f o r the 1982 harvest were as follows, compared t o
      1980 and    1981:
                                Average Community p r i c e s (ECU/Ztr)
                                1980    1981    1982    1982/81% 1982/80%
      Contracted                  133    163     177        +8.5       +33.1
      Non-contract       (spot) 469      226      65       -71.2       -86.1
(1) See Table 17, second column.
(2) See Table 16.
 ---pagebreak---                                          28
        Quantities marketed under advanced contracts increased once
        again for the third year running:
        Year           Contracts              %        Spot        %
        1978           686 210                80.5     166 036     19.5
        1979           745 308                83.2     150 109     16.8
        1980           723 983                91.5       67 385      8.5
        1981           759 433                83.0     154 754     17.0
        1982           763 701                67.4     363 795     32.3
   III.3.3 Returns per hectare (Table 17, 17a)
        Returns per hectare f e l l in 1982 after having risen i n each
        of the four successive years:
        ECU/ha for areas i n f u l l production
         (i.e. from the third year after planting)
         (i) by variety group
        ECU/Ztr        1980        1981     1982   1982/81%    1982/80%
        Aromatic       4 833       6 468    6006    -7.1        +24.3
        Bitter         5 139       6 288    6393    +1.7        +24.4
        Others         6 801       5793     4663   -19.5        -31.4
0)
 ---pagebreak---                                        29
   ( i i ) by country
                     1980       1981       1982     1982/81%     1982/80%
  FR Germany         4 482      5 979      5 505     -7.9           +23
  France             6 179      6 261      4 920   -21.4   .     -20.4
  Belgium          10 586       9 119      5 272   -42.2        -50.2
  U.K.               5 740      7 255     8 288    +14.2        +44,3
  Ireland           3 938      7 079      7 986    +12,8       +102.3
 Growers'        total    returns    therefore    remained    practically
 unchanged as compared with 1981 and 1980:
                            ECU
                            1978: 94 323 773
                            1979: 115 510 745
                            1980: 126 832 608
                            1981: 158 407 425
                            1982: 158 736 799
The Canmission notes that in 1982 there were 6494 growers i n
the      Community, of whom about 130 were independent. With the
formation of a Producer Group i n the United Kingdom              by a l l
except       two    of   that   Member    States'   growers,    and i t s
subsequent recognition,         the   proportion    of   Ccmmunity     hop
growers who are members of recognized groups rose to 98%.
                   x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x
 ---pagebreak---                                       30
                                                 III
                                            CONCLUSIONS
 III.l
 In   the l i g h t of the background and medium-term prospects set out
 in the foregoing report on the world                   and Community            hop market
 situations,         the Commission,            in proposing      a i d f o r the 1982
 harvest, i s seeking t o pursue the following aims:
 (1) to afford a modest supplement to grower incomes,                           which    fell
       substantially                i n a l l producer Member         States      with the
       exception of the United                 Kingdom,  i n comparison           with the
      generally            adequate       revenue obtained from the 1981 harvest.
      As has been i l l u s t r a t e d , this was the result                 of unusually
      high       yields         which produced a corresponding increase i n the
      amount needing t o be sold on                  the free    market,         prices   on
      which        fell       t o levels which were l a s t seen i n 1977. In the
      two smaller producer Member States - France and Belgium - a
      very      marked          fall     i n returns was registered bringing them
      below estimated production costs.
(2)  to d i f f e r e n t i a t e , i n so doing, between    the relative            in cane
      derived         from the d i f f e r e n t groups of v a r i e t i e s : income from
 ---pagebreak---                                                   31
      aromatic v a r i e t i e s f e l l , on the greater          part        of   Ctammunity
      area,      while       that      from       bitter    varieties        stayed    almost
      unchanged. This          was       not      merely    the  consequence          of   the
      prevailing        world      surplus and the unexpectedly higher y i e l d
      in 1982:     i n f a c t most aromatic hops i n the                Community       would
      have   attracted         s a t i s f a c t o r y contract p r i c e s i f i t had    not
      been f o r circumstances a f f e c t i n g           trade   for      which     growers
      were i n no way        responsible.
It   has been shown that the p r e v a i l i n g world surplus i s even more
marked i n terms of b i t t e r         hops,        and   since   Community         aromatic
varieties    play       an    important          part     on the l a t t e r * s substantial
export market, i t has been thought appropriate to demonstrate                              in
the    proposal       the     Commission's            wish   to  continue          supporting
Community growers, not only i n the face of an adverse                             short-term
market,   but     also p a r t i c u l a r l y i n that part of the i n t e r n a t i o n a l
market where s p e c i f i c    Community            hops   are  particularly          sought
after.
Bearing   in    mind these considerations, the l e v e l of a i d proposed
has been c a r e f u l l y judged so as neither to              create        an   incentive
for further excessive planting, nor a r t i f i c i a l l y to d i s t o r t p r i c e
formation on the world market.
 ---pagebreak---                                                           32
F i n a l l y , i t i s proposed t o allocate the higher l e v e l of aid a l s o
to      the t h i r d           group      of v a r i e t i e s ("others"), since i t includes
promising             new      varieties        with        combined   aromatic     and          bitter
c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s t i l l i n a r e l a t i v e l y early stage of introduction
onto the market, and o f f e r i n g                      good    sales  prospects,         but for
which,          f o r t u i t o u s l y , a substantial f a l l i n income was registered
in 1982.
(3) to continue to provide the means whereby                               voluntary        Producer
         Groups,           which         now  account          for practically      the whole of
         Community area, may contribute to the rational management of
          the      market. Community a i d has i n recent years been deployed
          by these groups, to t h i s end, i n a variety of cost-effective
          ways,         i n accordance            with        the revised    provisions of the
          common organization of the market.                          Such   action was            also
          taken        i n 1982 with              the object of p a r t i a l l y r e l i e v i n g the
         d i f f i c u l t market situation which followed the harvest.
 ---pagebreak---                                         33
III. 2 The Oxnmission therefore proposes the following amounts of
      aid:
                      Variety Group                     A i d (ECU/ha)
                      Aromatic                                350
                      Bitter                                  200
                      Other                                   350
      The average a i d l e v e l per hectare, a t 280 ECU, would thereby
      r i s e i n comparison with the 1981 harvest (191 ECU;         1980   =
      227     ECU). Average      income    on established areas (including
      such aid) would thereby be brought          to  6405    ECU/ha   (1981:
      6567 ECU/ha; 1980: 5470 ECU/ha), and, by v a r i e t y groups to:
                                                        income        ECU/ha
      including a i d
                                                        1982         1981
                    Aromatic                            6356         6668
                    Bitter                              6593         6468
                    Other                               5013         5993
      (The amount of the a i d thus proposed represents only 4.9% of
      the     average price par Zentner, given the very high y i e l d i n
      the axnmunity i n 1982. (1981 = 3.4%)
 ---pagebreak---                                34
The impact of t h i s proposal on the E&GGF  budget,  Guarantee
Section,  at  exactly     7.7   mio ECU,  would thereby r i s e i n
comparison with the previous year (1981: 5.9 MIO ECU,        1980:
6.2 MIO ECU, 1978: 10 MIO     ECU).
 ---pagebreak---                                                           35
  A.  UNITS + ABBREVIATIONS               USED
  ALGJD      (Tab.     3,   4,  7,    8)   =    aIgorhythmn.
             Hypothetical         world      stock     position         at   1 Sept.        (i.e.    at    eve   of  a  given
             year's     harvest)       calculated          from production              and   apparent         demand   (see    above)
             by   iterative       mathematical            methods.
             Notgj    the    stock     position        given       for   the     Community       (Tab.       12,   13,  14,   15)    is
                      not    thus    inferred         but    is    as   indicated         by  the    Community       professional
                      organizations           (for     the     first     time      for    1 Sept.       1979).
                      The    same f i g u r e    is    used     for    EEC s t o c k      expressed        in   bittering     value
                      tenus     (Tab.     14 -      15,    L.   18,     19)    simply      by   multiplication         by   the    alpha
                      content      in    % of    each Community              harvest       (depreciated          to  bitterinq
                     value,      see above;          and    Table       6).
 "ALPHA"   = ALPHA       ACID    CONTENT
 UNITS     -   AS % o f     Hops     weight
          -    AS T o n n e s  (T)    Alpha      Production
          -    AS K G / H A   = KGS A l p h a      Acid
                                 per    Hectare         (yield)
          -    AS G M / H L   = Grammes p e r          Hectolitre          (in     beer)
 ALTS     Alternative          (forecasts)           (Tab.      4,   8,    13,     15)
 BV       Bittering         value     in   Tonnes       i.e.     Alpha      Acid      content     or     production
          depreciated          by   storage        loss     (see     Tab.      6)
 DREG     Hypothetical          demand       estimate         arrived       at    from p r o d u c t i o n    (hops,   alpha,     BV)
          by    a   regression        method     -    linear,        1st,    2rd,      or   3rd   order      or   autoregressive
          etc.
GH/jjL    1)    Hopping       ratio    (Grammes p e r          Hectolitre           in   beer)
          2)    Alpha A c i d Dosage          (  '                 "                    "
KT        (Kilotons)         = 1.000       tonnes      = 20.000          Ztr.
 ---pagebreak---                                                          36
    L.          LINE      (e.g. L2/L6 result             obtained  by d i v i d i n g  Line 2  (of a table)
                by     line    6
    MHJL        Millions         of  Hectolitres         (beer)
    T/HA        Tonnes per          Hectare    (yield      of  hops)
    ZJR         (Zentner)         = 50 kg
    Calculation       of    return/ha      EEC ( T a b l e  17)
    NP -  New P l a n t i n g s   (first    or  second      year)
    PP -  Established planting              (third      year  and  older)
    TP -  Total    area      i.e.    P P + NP ( 1 )     + NP ( 2 )
B. PRODUCER MEMBER            STATES:
   BRD -    Federal      Republic
   UK
   B
   F
   IRL
   GR
C. EXCHANGE    RATES      EMPLOYED       FOR R E T U R N   CALCULATION
   As  at  1 N o v . 1982
                                                                     (as at date last
   1 ECU =     N A T I O N A L CURRENCY                              m o n e t a r y change t o ECU)
              DM                          2,57524                           22.10.82
              fc ST                       0,618655                            1-    ^-80
              FB/BF                     44,9774                             22.10.82
              FF                          6,37174                           22.10.82
              b   IRL                     0,691011                          26. 6.82
 ---pagebreak---                                                               37
                                          List   of  Tables      and  Graphs
 STATISTICAL              TABLES
 TAB.         1:     Characteristics           of   the    1982   world     harvest,    by  major    producer       country
                     1A    1981     harvest
                     1B    1980     harvest
                     1C    1978    and     1979    harvests
 T A B . . 2j_       Estimated        forward     sales      1983  -  1987    for   EEC a n d   IHB  producer     Member
                    States
 T A B . . . _3,:   Wor.!^.y\op3_33SkslLWJ>5- J"—1?83 =                   T   production      and   apparent     demand     with
                    resulting        stock      levels
                        r
TABj.A.-.           Wp. .ld_JTORS-JlgJ-h-gt.v       alternative       forecasts      for   1 Sept    1984    market
                    balance      b a s e d on    Tab.    3   result   for    1983   and  four    alternative        combination:
                    of    area   and     yield    in   1983
JAB.., 5 :          World    harvests        1969    -   1982:    summary     of  essential      statistics,        with
                    averages       and     Index    for    1982   at  1969    =  100
T A B . . . _6:     IHB_.countjjjes         compared       to  other    world    producers:      comparison      of   area
                    needed     to    produce      apparent       demand     with  area   forecasted      for    1983   harvest
T A B . J7:_        World    market        balance     1972    -  1983;     expressed    in   terms   of  demand      and
                    apparent       stock      level    2    bittering       value
JAJB-..A.I          Alternative          forecasts       for   1 Sept.      1984  derived     from   TAB. 7     (cf.   Tab.  4)
                  :
TAB.*-              Annual     alpha      acid    depreciation        hop    cones/products
TAB... _9_'_        EC E x t e r n a l   trade    in   hops    and   processed products          Sept.   81   -  Aug.    82
                    (marketing         year)
                               n
T A B . _1,0_:      }dplXAJ 3I^?^-l?JJ*^.Z.A?3^J.                    apparent     demand    trends    for   3   hop   variety
                    groupings        (based     on   production       figures     from   Joh. Barth      + Sohn      O.H.G.,
                    Nurnberg)        (annual       reports)
 ---pagebreak---                                                                    38
    JABj-JJ-?.. W o r l d            beer   production        by c o u n t r y    1975 - 1982
                           (Joh.     Barth   + Sohn,       and o t h e r     sources)
   . J A B„._ ,.12_: E C , . m a r k e t , ba.1 a n c e„ _1973_    J 9 83_;   production          and apparent         demand
                          with     resulting       stock     levels
   JABJ-JJS:. Alternative                    forecasts        for    1 Sept.       1 9 8 4 b a s e d o n T A B . 12 r e s u l t     for
                          1983     and four      alternative         combinations          of    area and y i e l d       i n 1983
   J.AB .,JA-
           J          1  ^-J^3lK?J^balancj^J97Z_J983                        expressed i n terms            of   apparent          stock
                          level     in bittering          value    (basis      f o r next      table)
  T A B , . , J 5 , : . EEC^ market^J983,          ,-.J984^      alternative          forecasts       f o r 1 Sept        1984 s t o c k
                         levels       (bittering        value)     derived       from     Table     14 ( 4 a l t e r n a t i v e   yield
                        and export          hypotheses)
 JABJL..3.6.:, _E_E,C m a r k e t . :
                              r             quantities         and p r i c e     levels     contract       and spot          markets
                         (1982      harvest)
 JAJB!-·_JZl,             E
                        K -P_AgJlV-est_J_98_2_:_ s y n o p s i s o f Member S t a t e s r e t u r n s          per variety:           -
                        area      (NP, P P ) , prices        (ECU) s p o t / c o n t r a c t ,    returns    ECU/HA        a n d ECU
                        total       revenue
 GRAPHS
    1
      -   Wor_ld. H o p s , a r e a       1969 - 1983
   2.     Wpr.l.d. Hops_ areaj             percent        annual     variation        US/EEC.
   3.     Percentage of                world T   a_rea,.by     country
   4.     Wprj.d_„Hpp_s. m a r k e t , J 9 6 9 _ - 1 9 8 , 2 , :   Production, estimated                stocks      (world);        declared
          stocks            (EEC + USA)
-5.       Alternatj_y_e         i   demajid_jstjjnates         hops      1969 - 1985
  5A: G M / H L         hopping        ratio      world     + EEC
 6
    -   A,lp^ha A c j d _ : P r o d u c t i o n       and e s t i m a t e d  demand 1969 - 1983
 7      H
   -      P P . exports,           1969 -     1 9 8 1 - USA a n d EEC
 ---pagebreak---                                                         39
 8- H,op pxices.:.
             T                Fed. Republic        + USA s p o t / c o n t r a c t   (nominal)
 9. Hop.pr.i_c.es;           EC p r o d u c e r  Member States       at     constant     prices  (GDP d e f l a t e d -
                             1982    prices)
10. P e r . c e n . t a q e annuaJL__v_a_rja _t_iqnj W o r l d area      cf.       Fed. Republic  average       contract
                             price
11. EC r e t u r n s        ECU
12: EC r e t u r n s :       Percentage         annual  variation
 ---pagebreak---                                        Note
 PRODUCTION       FIGURES     (TAB. 1)
 For the EC Member              States'      1982 harvest,          these     are
 slightly       higher       than     the o f f i c i a l returns     (Tab. 16,
 17), since       quantities       registered      after     31 March        1983
 are      included.
 The figures        for world hops and alpha production                  used in
 Tab. 7 & 8 are for some years also                     slightly      different
 from    the      "master"        figures     given in Tab. K+A-C) and
 Tab.5: t h i s i s purely         due to       rounding.
 STATISTIQUES        DE LA PRODUCTION          (TAB.lì
 Les quantités indiquées au Tabi 1. pour les récoltes de
 1982      des       états       membres        producteurs        de la CEE
 apparaissent           légèrement         supérieures          aux      relevés
 officiels        tels     qu'ils      figurent       aux tabi. 16 et 17;
 cette   différence est due au fait                que le tabi. 1 a été
mis     au jour le plus tard possible                 et comprend donc les
 quantités éventuellement enregistrées après le 31 mars
1983.
Les     chiffres        concernant        la production          mondiale      de
houblons      et d'acide       alpha figurant         aux tabi.        7 et 8
peuvent       également        différer       légèrment des i n d i c a t i o n s
définitives des tabi. 1 (+a,b,c) et 5 à cause du                           besoin
d'arondissement.
VERMERK zur               Produktionsangaben.
Die      in      der       Tabelle        1 enthaltenen              endgueltigen
Erntemengen            1982         fuer       die            hopfenerzeugenden
EWG-Mitgliedstaaten              sind     etwas     hoeher als die in den
Tabellen     nr. 16 und 17 zusammengefassten                           ambtlichen
Erhebungen ; die erstgenannte                 Tabelle     enthaelt     auch die
eventuelle       nach 31 maerz abgewogene Mengen.
Die in den Tabellen            7 u. 8 verwendeten          Angaben fuer die
Welthopfen-           bzw.     Alphasaureproduktion            koennen      auch
wenig      von den in            den Tabellen          l(+a+b+c)        und     5
enthaltenen         endgueltigen          Angaben      abweichen : dies ist
auf die Abrundung                 zurueckzufuehren.
 ---pagebreak--- ELFC-M-VI-EO H_PS/HCFFEN/HDJ6L(_N: VVCRLD FRCD. A^^TERZELG__NG^PRCD. NCNDIALE (REV. 14. 1.83 )
TAB. 1 (83/6)
      I       II              IIA             I IB              III               IV         V           VI        VII       VIII          IX        X
COUNTRY     AREA             AREA           AREA              FRCD            YIELD       FRCD        PERCENT YIELD BEER FRCD FCRLCAST AREA
              HA              HA              HA              ZTR               T/HA ALPHA T           ALPHA     ALPHA       M/HL        AREA     CHANCE
                             (+/ -)       (+/ -)              EST.              EST.      EST.         EST.      KG/HA (BARTH)            HA        HA
   1982      1982 1982-81 1982-1978 1982                                       1982        1982       1982        1982       1982        1983 1983 - 82
BUNDESREP       19985              795            2363         849741              2.13        2188       5.15     109.49     94.816       19700       -285
DEUTSCHLD
FRANCE              750            -10            -137            34692             2.31          84      4.84     112.00       22.41         703        -47
BELGIUM             859              13                 8         40406             2.35         120      5.94      139.70       14.7         834        -25
LNITED            5871               63               34       205747               1.75         811      7.88    • 138.14      59.78        5721      -150
KIN_EC_M
 IRELAND               75              0              10            1755            1.17            7     8.00        93.60       5.59         75           0
GREECE                 25               0               0             570           1.14            2      8.00       91.20         2.9         25          0
EEC (INC.        27565             861             2278       1132911               2.05        3212       5.67     116.54          238     27058       -507
 IRL + CR)                                                                                                                  (CEE"10")
LNITED           16874           -549              4349         716876               2.12       2688       7.50      159.30     228.03      15000      -1874
 STATES
AUSTRALIA          1378             203              463           52540             1.91         263     10.00      190.64     19.682        1400          22
 JLDC6LAV.         3331               69             194        114840               1.72         353      v6.15     105.97        13.4       3380          49
 ESPANA            2003                 0            200           47495             1.19         166       6.99       82.88    21.499        2003           0
CJZbLHO-         11759              -68              -77        250960               1.07         517       4.12       43.97    23.911       11772          13
 SLCVAKIA
 DDR               2210               90             106           66880             1.51         228       6.82   • 103.17           25      2250          40
 POLSKA            2502               57             102           54280             1.08         122       4.50       48.81       10.3       2502           0
 HUNGARY             560              -2               10          14500             1.29          30       4.14       53.57     7.825         563            3
 TOTAL I(-B      68182              661             7625       2451282               1.80       •7579       6.18     111.16    587.647       65928      -2254
 + EEC
 ========== ============ ========= ====== ========= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _                       __________  ========= ========= ========== ============ =====
 JAPAN             1108             -21             -130           29820             1.35          91       6.10       82.13                  1050         -58
 USSR EST.       17000              500             4000         200000              0.59         450       4.50       26.47                 17000           0
 F-JVPNIA »        1800             400              700           34000             0.94          77       4.50       42.50                  2000         200
 BULGARIA"         1142               81            -248           18272             0.80          37       4.00       32.00                  1500         358
 CHINA FR"         5000           1000              2000           90000             0.90         225       5.00       45.00                  5000           0
 OTHERS "          2000             100                  0         60000             1.50         180       6.00       90.00                  2000           0
 __________ ____________        ZZ = — - — ~ — — —= = = -:--:= = _= _= = = = = ========
                                                                               =          =================== ==================== ============ =====
 V\CRLD          96232            2721            13947        2883374               1.50       8638        5.99       89.76    964.15       94478     -1754
 ADDED                                                                                                                      FCREEAST
 VVCRLD
 AGREED
                                                                                          ==========:======== ========= ==========
 ========== _;-_;_: — _;;_ —                                 =========         ---------                                                                = -===
  (*)USA TOTAL STRUNG FCR HARVEST: ACTUALLY HARVESTED AREA 1982: 16026 HA
 (*)US-0:SA^FI_AECHE ALFQELEITET FUfR ERNTE: QIERNTET WJRDEN 16026 Hf\
 (*) USA: SUPERFICIE EXISTANATE A LA OUEILLETTE: SEULES 16026 HA FLRENT RBXLTEES
 ---pagebreak--- COEUR VI-E-3 HOP S / HOUB LON / HOPF EN : TAB. 1A (82/4r REV 1 SEPT 82)
     I      II         II I         IV        V        VI         VI I       VΤ 1 I
COUNTRY    AREA        PROD      YIELD      PRCO     PERCENT YIELD BEER PRrm
            HA          ZTR       T/HA     ALPHA Τ    ALPHA     ALPHA       M/HL
   1981    1981                                                 KG  /HA   (BARTH)
                      1981       1981       1981     1981       1981        1981
=================================== =:=    ===============: = ===
                                                                =====: = _______
                                                                          =
BUNDESREP    19190     674074        1. 76     2019     5. 99     105. 21       93 . 7
DEUTSCHLD
FRANCE          760     28729        1. 89        93    6. 47     122. 37        21 . 8
BELGIUM         846     31437        1. 86       101    6. 43     119. 39           15
UNITED         5808    186788        1. 61       754    8. 07     129. 82       61 . 5
KINGDOM
IRELAND          75       1537       1. 02         7    9. 11      93. 33         5. 8
GREECE           25        800       1. 60         3    7. 50     120. 00         2. 9
EEC (INC.    26704     923365        1. 73     2977     6. 45     111. 48      236 . 8
IRL + GR)                                                                   ( "10")
UNITED       17442     717955        2. 06     2520     7. 02     144. 48      228 . 9
STATES
AUSTRALIA      1175     47538        2. 02       228    9. 59     194. 04       20 . 2
JUGOSLAV.      3262    108050        1. 66       310    5. 74      95. 03          12
ESPANA         2003     50509        1. 26       177    7. 01      88. 37       20 .9
CZECHO­      11827     257700        1. 09       618    4. 80      52. 25       23 . 9
SLOVAKIA
DDR            2120     54608        1. 29       182    6. 67      85. 85          24
POLSKA         2445     56860        1. 16        90    3. 17      36. 81       11 . 3
HUNGARY         562      15080       1. 34        37    4. 91      65. 84         7. 8
TOTAL IHB    67540    2231665        1. 65      7139    6. 40     105. 70      585 . 8
+ EEC
JAPAN          1129     25700        1. 14        65    5. 06      57. 57       46 . 5
USSR         16500     180000        0. 55       550    6. 11      33. 33          65
ROMANIA        1400     22300        0. 80        50    4. 48      35. 71       11 . 5
BULGARIA       1061     14900        0. 70        33    4. 43      31. 10         5. 4
CHINA PR       4000     80000        1. 00       220    5. 50      55. 00             7
"OTHERS"       1900     51000        1. 34       153    6. 00      80. 53       P.M.
WORLD        93530    2605565        1. 39     8210     6. 30      87. 78      949 . 9
ADDED
WORLD                                                                             950
AGREED
 ---pagebreak---                                                                                                                          TABL.          Ì B (82-2)
   COUNTRY    AREA                    PROD                  YIELD                  PROD              PERCENT                  YIELD BEER PRO
                HA                       MR                   T/HA               ALPHA T ALPHA                                ALPHA H/RL
      -
                                                                                                                              KG/HA (J.BARTHK
     1980     1980                     1980                       1980                  1980              1980                 1980         1980
                                     a a a si a a at at a       a s i xtstai ars                        =am at sis
«»===:a:====
BUNDESREP          17954               537849                     1.50                  1541                   5.73              85.83         92.309
DEUTSCHLD
FRANCE                  757               28181                   1.86                         74              5.25              97.75         22.009
BELGIUM                 823               28646                   1.74                         90              6.28            109.36             14.5
UNITED               5718               194989                    1.71                      714                7.32            124.87          66.605
KINGDOM
IRELAND                    75               1530                  1.02                           5             6.54               66.67           5.99
                                                                   1.40                          3             8.57             120.00             2.5
GREECE                      25                 700
                                     31 3 St=C 31 = 3C3S :                       sxat3s===:=£=sa        ataiacxsssan
EEC & I R L        25352                791895                     1.56                  2427                  6.13                95.73        238.04
AND GREEC
                                     at ai 3s at at at at 3     arac=:=aa        83C3£ = 3I3t3E3::  at at a s at as at at 3» =2 at at at a
=========:= 3  = 31=3 31 =X = = 31 =                        :
UNITED              15003               683120                      2.28                  2405                  7.04             160.30        227.746
STATES
AUSTRALIA             1071                 410520                   1.89                     180                8.88             168.07         19.433
                                                                    1.54                      316               6.51             100.16         11.712
JUGOSLAV.              3155                97017                                                                                                20.027
ESPANA                 1852                43006                    1.16                      161               7.49                86.93
CZECHO-             11100               200722                      0.90                      351               3.50                31.62       23.393
SLOVAKIA
 DDR                   2156                47270                    1.10                      138               5.84                64.01            24
POLSKA                 2474                34380                    0.69                        68              3.96                27.49       11.185
HUNGARY                   556              13372                    1.20                        36              5.38                64.75           7.8
                                                                                                             sa aaaassara asaass
========= =========== ========
TOTAL IHB
 AND EEC            62719             1951302                        1.56                 6082                  6.23                96.97      583.336
                                                                E S 3 3 = X =           • a : scat 31=         casataaaaaaaaaaaaaaasraaa
 ========= r  ==x=:s33:=;3!S3{ax3t3i==: =
 JAPAN                 1161                36180                     1.56                       90              4.98                77.52        45.138
 USSR               14000                200000                      0.71                     400               4.00                28.57           70
 ROMANIA               1200                25000                     1.04                       50              4.00                41.67 « 8.5
 BULGARIA              1600                18000                     0.56                       36              4.00                22.50          5.4
 CHINA PR              3200                55000                     0.93                     151               5.50                47.27             6
  "OTHERS"             1800                50000                     2.25                     150                6.00               83.33      N/A
 ========= ===========:                = = = = = = = =
 WORLD:
 ADDED              85680             2335482                        1.36                  6959                  5.96               8 1 . 2 2 937.802
                                                                                                               ••«•si
 WORLD:
 AGREED             85380             2339480                        1.37                  7055                  6.03                82.63
TOTAL
 ---pagebreak---                                                                                 T.ABL 1      (82-1)
   comtTRX      AUSA           MOD        YIELD           PROD       rmctm            Y I E L D BKBR PRO
                            1
               - ** .          . ZTR     , T/HA          ALPHA T ALPHA                ALPHA            M/HL
                                                                                      KG/HA <J .BARTH >
      1979      1979            1979            1979         1979         1979         1979            1979
BUNDESREP          17305        624202          1.80         1902               6.09   109.91           91.623
DEUTSCHLD
FRANCE                768     . 31182           2.07            87              5.58   113.28           22.793
BELGIUM               803         35457         2.21           107              6.04   133.25           13.681
UNITED               5709      .206509          1.81           732              7.09   128.22           67.416
KINGDOM
IRELAND                 65         1635         1.26              6             7.34     92.31            6.039
              BasBBanaisisasBssaisa;es=s-;3saa:                                                      asaassa
EEC (9)            24650        898985          1.82         2834               6.30   114.97         237.078
                                         _8ssa ai ssassi
                                                                                      =—  •
                                                                                          _•== —  •
                                                                                                  _==_=_•====
UNITED             12890        496748          1.93         1746               7.03   135.45         215.809
STATES
AUSTRALIA            1006         44560         2.21           224           10.05     222.66           19.678
JUGOSLAV.            3106         88046         1.42           255              5.79     82.10          11.254
ESPANA               1852         51716         1.40           194              7.50   104.75           19.712
CZECHO­            11745        236265          1.01           520              4.40     44.27            23.61
SLOVAKIA
DDR                  2160         72220         1.67           272              7.53   125.93                  23
POLSKA               2447         45000         0.92           137               6.09    55.99          11.127
HUNGARY                568        12448         1.10             34              5.46    59.86               7.5
E^- -   - — —=
             -                                                                             - "e - =
TOTAL I H B        60424       1945988          1.61         6216                6.39  102.87         568.768
AND E E C
JAPAN                1200         36300         1.51             91              5.01    75.83          44.758
USSR               12500        220000          0.88           580               5.27    46.40                 70
ROMANIA              1200         22000         0.92             70              6.36    58.3 3              8.3
BULGARIA             1500         17000         0.57             40              4.71    26.67               5.5
CHINA PR                  0            0             0            0              0.00      0.00                  5
 "OTHERS"            3900       103000           1.32          340               6.60    87.18               N/A
              ;3S=a= =_:====i            - --  - : -   -            - - - - - -
WORLD              80724       2344288           1.45         7337               6.2     90.89        909.285
ADDED:
                                                   _                 -    -L—-----       - -   - — - :a.=axa: a: as a.
WORLD              80724       2366420          1.47         7266                6.14    90.01
AGREED:
COUNTRY          AREA           PROD       YIELD           PROD        PERCENT         YIELD        BEER PRO
                  HA              ZTR        T/HA        ALPHA T ALPHA                 ALPHA            M/HL
                                                                                       KG/HA =
     1978        1978            1978         1978         1978             1978       1978             1978
 BUNDESREP          17622        606602          1.72         1705               5.62    96.75          91.656
 DEUTSCHLD
FRANCE                 887         30027         1.69            95              6.33   107.10           22.781
 BELGIUM               851         27727         1.63            86              6.20   101.06            13.83
 UNITED               5837       187612          1.61           724              7.72   124.04             65.8 8
 KINGDOM
 IRELAND                 65         1450         1.12              6             8.28    92.31            5.824
EEC & IRL          25262         853418          1.69 2 6 1 6 6.13                     103.55          233.424
UNITED             12525        499496          1.99         1550                6.21  123 .75        210.135
STATES
AUSTRALIA              915        37180         2.03           186            10.01    203 .28          19.511
JUGOSLAV.            3137         87616         1.40           274               6.25    87 .34         10.005
ESPANA               1803         41796         1.16           156               7.46    86,.52         18.653
CZECHO­            11836        201757          0.85           366              3.63     30..92         22.058
SLOVAKIA
DDR                  2104         47730         1.13           135              5.66     64..16                23
POLSKA               2400         38840         0.81             80             4.12     33..33         11.378
HUNGARY                550        11800         1.07             37             6.27     67..27           7.244
TOTAL IHB          60532       1819633          1.50         5400               5.94     89..21       555.408
AND E E C
JAPAN                1238         44800         1.81           134              5.98   108..24          ' 44.3
USSR               12000        200000          0.83           436              4.36     36..33                65
ROMANIA              1100         22000              1           55             5.00     50,.00             8.15
BULGARIA             1500         21000         0.70             47              4.48    31,.33             5.16
CHINA PR                  0            0             0            0
 "OTHERS"            2800         64000         1.14           216               6.75    77 .14             N/A
WORLD:
ADDED              79170       2171433          1.37         6288               5.79     79.42        873.079
WORLD:
AGREED             7tl?0       2171440          1.37         6252                5.76    78 .97
TOTAL
 ---pagebreak--- TAB. 2     (83/2)     CCMEURVI-E-3       REV. 15.4.83
(SOURCE/QUELLE:     IHB ECON. COMMITTEE X I 1 / 8 2
COUNTRY/ E S T . FORWARD SALES/ GESCHAETZTE VORVERKAUEFE
LAND/PAYS             VENTES ESTIMEES SOUS CONTRAT
YEAR:            1983       1984     1985         1986    1987
BR DEUTSC     590000      590000   580000    400000     250000
HLAND
FRANCE          15216       7176     5760           100     40
BELGI QUE/     10600        6000     5500             0       0
BELGIE                                     —
UNITED        175500      123000    77500             0       0
KINGDOM
 (IRL+ GR        2300       2300     2300         2300    2300
P.M. )
EEC/EWG       793616      728476   671060     402400    252340
USA           559100      508182   374545     201819    100909
AUSTRALIA       48000      45000    31500        31500        ?
JUGOSLAV.       92010      81000    75200        60060   50050
ESPANA *        50000      50000    50000        50000        ?
CSSR     *    240000      240000   250000     250000
DDR             64000      68000    72000        73000   75000
POLSKA          40000      40000    40000        40000   40000
MAGYARORS       15000      15000    15000             0       0
ZAG/HUNG.
TOTAL IHB    1901726     1775658  1579305   1108779     518299
% CF/VGL.           79        73       65            46      21
PROD.'82
% CF/VGL            92        86        76           53      25
PROD.
MOYEN/DURCHSCHNITT IHB 1978-82
 *  ESTIMATE
 ---pagebreak---  TAB. 3 .83/3 KPS: VCPLD PRCD. & DEKRO/KPFEN:VCLTERZEUOJN3 & NCHWCE EC COM VI -E-3 R£V 15 4 83
                                    1969          1970       1971    1972    1973    1974     1975     1976       1977    1978    1979    1980     1981        1982    1983
L.  NO
 1    FRCDLCTIGN T                 94946       102536      96050  105172  118301  111176  113502   106760      117796  108497  117234  116774   130278      143413
 2    DBvWJD                       94094        95082      98685  104085  105864  109032  113632   114363      118170  118188  116850  116662   118394      121106  120153
              (L12XL10)                                                                                                                                (83/82+%=         -1
3     + (-)                          852         7454      -2635    1087   12437     2144    -130   -7603        -374   -9691      384     112   11884       22307    ··»»
4     STOCK 1 S E P T .           47517         48369     55823    53188   54275   66712   68856    68726       61123   60749   51058   51442    51554       63439   85746
      ALGD.
5     STOCK "hCFMOL               47047         47541     49343    52043   52932   54516   56816    57182       59085   59094   58425   58331    59197       60553   60077
      6 NCNTHS
6     + (-)                          470           828      6481    1146    1343   12196   12040    11545        2038    1655   -7367   -6889    -7643        2886   25669
6A    L 4 = N 3 NCNTHS                  6             6         7       6       6       7        7        7          6       6       5        5        5          6       9
7                                 66982        70666      75042    78015   81247   82083   80527    78206       79262   79170   80439   85680    93511      96232     ALTS
8     + /- SINOE F B E                           3684       4376    2973    3232      836  -1556   -2321         1056     -92    1269    5241     7831        2721
      VI OJS YEflR
9     YIELD      T/m                1.42         1.45       1.28    1.35    1.46    1.35     1.41    1.37        1.49    1.37    1.46    1.36     1.39        1.49   ALTS
10    B E E R PRCD N H L             630           658       689     731     771      802   • 826    V
                                                                                                       848 •      873     909     938     950      964         978     993
      (NEXT \ R / N ° £ C H S T E S J / / W M . S U I V )
11    % <+> C F PREV V R / A N M .        PREC.             4.71    6.10    5.47    4.02    2.99     2.66    .   2.95    4.12    3.19    1.28     1.49       1.48    1.45
12    OM/I-L    (GREG)               143           138       135     135     132     132      134      131        130     126     123     121      121         122     121
13    CM/HL:%+/-PB£V.\R/A.P                    -3.50      -2.17     0.00  -2.22     0.00    1.52   -2.24       -0.76   -3.08   -2.38   -1.63      0.00       0.83   -0.82
 ---pagebreak---                                                  TAB.    4:ALT.    FORECASTS/PREVISIONS      ALTERNATIVES
          8 3 / 3 HOPS          ALT I                 ALT    II              ALT I I I              ALT IV
                               1983       1984       1983         1984      1983        1984       1983     1984
L. NO
1     PRODUCTION T          120600               131400                  125960                 137240
      ( A L T S : L7 X L 9
2    DEMAND                 120153      120947   120153         120947   120153       120947    120153    120947
              (L12XL10))
3     + (-)                     447                11247                    5807                  17087
4     STOCK 1 SEPT.          85746       86193     85746         96993    85746        91553      85746   102833
     ALGO.
5     STOCK "NORMAL          60077       66536      60077        66536    60077        66536      60077     66536
      6 MONTHS
6     + (-)                  25670       19657    • 25670        30457    25670         25017'    25670     36297
6A    L4=NO MONTHS                 9           9          9          10          9          _9_         9      10
                                                                   • =^
7     HA ALTS                90000                  90000                  94000                  94000
8     + / - SINCE PRE
      VIOUS YEAR
                         ALTS.   +/-!5DEV/ECART TYP E / S T ANDARDABWEICHUNG
9    YIELD T/HA                1.34                  1.46                    1.34                   1. 46
10    BEER PROD MHL             993        1008        993        1008        993        1008        993     1008
      (NEXT YR/NAECHSTES J . / P R O C H . ANNEE
11   % <+> CF PREV                         1. 50                    1. 5                  1. 5                1. 5
12   GM/HL        (DREG)        121         120        121          120       121         120        121      120
 ---pagebreak--- EURCCM VI - E - 3 .   TAB.5(83/4)
WORLD HOP B A S E S E R I E S 1 9 6 9 - T O DATE           EEC/1 HB/USDA/CCMvERCI   A L & VARIOUS SOURCES LAST UPDATE:                   15.04.83
****##*»* ••••J***************************************************                 *******************************************
YEAR          AREA HA     PROD ZTR = P R C O .        YIELD PR ALPHA    PERCENT      ALPHA      B E E R PROD P R I C E DM P R I C E DM P R I C E US
                                          TONNES       T/HA   TONNES     ALPHA     KG/HA              MHL     CONTRACT        SPOT      $ / L B AVGE
                                                                                                                 BRD          BRD       A L L VARS.
**#»*»************#*#*#*#***»»*******#»***»»*#»*#»***^
  1969              66982   1898920          94946     1.42       5276      5. 56      78.   77          605          370          350             . 5
                    70666   2050720         102536     1.45       6038     5.89        85. 44            630          367          415           .56
  1970
  1971              75042   1921000          96050     1.28       5377      5. 60      71.65             658          353          622           . 65
                    78015   2103440         105172     1. 3 5     6174      5.87       79. 14            689          332          372           .71
  1972
                            2366020         118301     1.46       7468      6. 31      91. 92            731          331          207           .76
  1973              81247
                            2223520         111176     1. 3 5     6627      5. 96      80. 74            771          331          235           .79
  1974              82083
                    80527   2270040         113502     1.41       7230      6. 37      8 9 . 78          802          331          221           . 83
  1975
                    78206   2135200         106760     1. 37      6137      5.75       78. 47            826          327          264           . 85
  1976
                    79262   2355920         117796     1. 4 9     7066      6. 0 0     89.15             848          319          128             . 9
  1977
                    79170   2169933         108497     1. 3 7     6275      5. 78      7 9 . 26          873          297          290             . 9
  1978
                            2344688         117234     1.46       7266      6. 20      9 0 . 33          909          324          533           . 97
  1979              80439
                                            116774     1. 3 6     6959     5.96        8 1 . 22          938          341         1400            1.5
  1980              85680   2335482
                            2605565         130278     1.39       8226      6. 31      8 7 . 97          950          377          606          1.52
  1981              93511
                                                                  8638     5. 99       89. 76            964          390          167          1.75
  1982              96232   2883374         144169     1. 50
*********************************************** ****************************************************                                          ******
AVERAGE            80504    2261702         113085     1.40       6768      5. 97      83. 83            800          342          415          0. 94
INDEX    69 =         144          152          152      106        164       108  1
                                                                                            114          159          105            48          350
                                                                                                                                                 ***
100    (1982                                                       ***                                   *·*          »* »
INDEX    77 =         121          122          122      101        122       100           101           114          122          130           194
 100   (1982
 1982:   FORECAST     FOR BEER;     PRICES    VERBAND DEUTSCHER   HOPFENPFLANZER     + US HOPS        ADMIN   CGVMITTEE
 ---pagebreak--- E L R D C M V I - E - > HOPS / l - O J B L C N / H Z P F E N  TAB 6 ( 8 3 / 1 ) REV 1 5 . 4 . 8 3 .
DEMAND C F A S E A / C Q v P N D E V I S - A - V I S       SUPERFICIE/NOCHFRAGE VGL FLAEQHE: IH3                                                                           %  INZR
                                                                                                                                                                             EST.====:
                                        1973             1974         1975        1976            1977          1978      1979        1980            1981        1982     DEM°tO         1983           1984             1985
IHB MDvBER
  CXUNTRIES:
                                    102440             970-42        96288       90744          99265        90909       97217      97453         110876        121692
PRODUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                                    INT.  DEMPND +32% F O R EXPCRT
INTERNAL
                                     60784             64253         66564       66229          67076         66031      65859       66455           66540       67761       +0.1%       89598          89746            89133
DENWD            (CREG)
                                                                                                                                                                             *****
                                      41656            32789         29724       24515          32189         24878      31358       30998           44336       53931
  +     (-)                                                                                                                                                                         (N3 A V E R A G E Y I E L D / R E N D . M > \
                               (NOTE Y R S C F B A L A N C E ( 1 9 7 5 , 7 7 , 7 9 , 8 0 :      32% A V A I L . F O R EXPORT I N E A C H : T H E R E F O R E 32% ADDED
                                T O DEMAND C A L C U L A T E D F O R 1 9 8 3 , 4 , 5 )                                                                                              IH3 1 9 7 8 - 8 2 = 1 . 6 1 T / H A )
                                        1.66             1.52          1.52       1.47             1.63           1.5      1.61        1.56            1.64         1.79                   1.58            1.59               1.6
YIELD.I        (T/HA)
                                      62490            63759         63374       61592           61767         60467     60359       62619            67605       68082   (L2*L4)        56708           56444            55708
ALT      I   (HA)
                                                                                                                                                                                             1.6           1.61              1.62
YIELD II         (T/HA)
                                               (HA I &        I I : 1973-82 ACTUAL, 1983 -85 = L . 2 / L . 4 / L . 6        )                                             (L2*L6)         55999          55743             55020
ALT      II  (HA)
                                                                                                              •                                                                           65928
HA EST 1 1 1 / 8 3      ( I H 3 P A R I S M=R 8 3 )
                                                                                                                                                                                          *****
OTHER       (N3N-IH3)
PRODUCTION                            14057            14134         17214       16016           18361         17517      19833       19097           18983       21721
                                                                     15849       16281           16836         17516      18318       19244           20294       21468        1.06       22763           24183            25558
DEMAND        (CREG)                  15355             15540
                                                                                                                                                                         *********
                                      -1298             -1406         1365        -265              1525             1     1515        -147           -1311
   +    (-)
 ---pagebreak---                    HOUBLON-HOPS-HOPFEN: WORLD MARKET BALANCE-EQ.UILIBRE   MARCHE MONDIAL- H E L TMmKTBILWZ: ALPHA TAB 7(83/2)
                                                                                                                   REV 15.4.83
                                                                                1975         1976     1977    1978      1979     1980    1981     1982
                   LINE NO. UNIT.      CALC.         1972     1973      1974
                                                                                [13.5    106.76      117.8   118.5    117.23   116.77  130.28   143.41
PRODUCTION HOUBLON1         KILOTONS DATA          105.17    118.3    111.18
HOP/ERZEUGUNG
                                                                                 6.37        5. 75        6   5.78        6.2    5.96    6.31         6
CONTENU/ANTEIL       2      PERCENT DATA             5.87     6.31      5.96
CONTENT: ALPHA
                                                                                             6139     7068    6849      7268     6959    8221     8605
                                                     6173     7465      6626     7230
ALPHA ACID
PRODUCTION/ERZEUG. 3        ALPHA T. LI X L2
                                                                                 8.56        8.56     7.84     7.84     7. 76    7.36    6.56     6.34
PERTE/AN VERLUST      4     PERCENT V. TAB 6A        9.28     9.12      8.88
JflHR/ YEAR LOSS                       §6M = 50%
MINUS PERTE/LOSS/                                                                                              6581     6986     6703    7951     8332
                            BV         L3-0.5XL4     5887      7124     6332     6921        5876     6791
 VERLUST =            5
                                                                                  826          848      873     909       938     950      964     978
PROD. BEER/BIERE      6     M/HL       DATA            731      771       802
 BIERERZEUGUNG
                                                                             4       3           3        3        4         3       1        1       2
 BEER */-             7     PERCENT                                5
 ANNUEL/YEAR
                                                                          7.7      7.9         7.7      7.6     7.4        7.2     7.1     7.1      7.1
 CONTENU/ANTEIL       8      GM/HL     DREG EST        7.9       7.7
 CONTENT: ALPHA                         (COMEUR)
 DEMAND/ NACH                           L6 X L8                                                                                                   6947
                                                      5775     5937      6175    6525         6530     6635    6727      6754    6745    6844
 FRAGE ALPHA          9      ALPHA T.
                                                               5666      5901    6246         6250     6375    6463     6492     6497    6620     6727
 BESOIN/BEDARF       10      BV: T.     L9 - L4X      5507
 REQUIRED :B. V.
                                                               1458        431     674        -374      416     118        495     207    1331    1605
 SURPLUS(DEFIC)      11      BV: T.      L5 - L10       380
  UBERSCHtDEFIZ)
                                                               2939      4411     4842        5516     5142    5558      5676     6171    6377     7890
  STOCKS/BEST AND    12      BV: T.                   2559
  1 SEPT.                     (ALGQ)     EC COM.
                                                                2833      2951    3123        3125     3187    3231      3246     3248    3310     3363
  STOCKS/ BEST AND    13      BV: T.     0.5 X L10     2753
  6 MDIS (NORMAL
                                                                    6         9       9          11       10      10        10      11       12      14
  STOCKS/ BESTAND     14      MONTHS L12/L10               6
  AS MONTHS SUPPLY                       X 12
                                                                    1       15       17          24       20      23        24      29       31      45
   PERTE A N/VERL.    15      BV: T.      § IX            -2
   LOSS YE AR
                                                                81.2        82    80.5         78.2     79.3    79.2      80.4    85.7    93.5     96.2
   SUPERF/ FLAECHE    16       000 HA. DATA               78
   AREA
                                                                                 -1.50       -2.30      1.10  -0.10       1.20    5.30     7.80    2.70
   *(-) PA R AN/      17       000 HA.                          3.20      0.80
    JflHR/YE m
                                                                                   1.41        1.37     1.49    1.50      1.46    1.36    1.39     1.49
   RENDEME NT/ERTR 18            T/HA.    L1/L16        1.35     1.46     1.36
    AG/YIEL D
 ---pagebreak---                    TAB 8(83/2)            ALTERNATIVE   FORECASTS
                  HOUBLON-HOPS-HOPFEN:
                                                              I                 II                  III                 I*
                                                      1983      1984    1983       1984      198J       1984     1983      1984
                  LINE NO UNIT.      CALC.
                           KILOTONS DATA             120.6             131.4               125.29              136.51
PRODUCTION HOUBLON1
HOP/ERZEUGUNG
                           PERCENT AVERAGE            5.97              5.97                 5.97                5.97
CONTENU/ANTEIL       2
CONTENT: ALPHA                       1969-82
                                                       7200              7845                 7480                8150
ALPHA ACID
PRODUCTION/ERZEUG. 3       ALPHA T. LI X L2
                                                       6.05      5.63    6.05       5.63      6.05       5.63     6.05     5.63
PERTE/AN VERLUST     4     PERCENT V. TAB 6A
JAHR/ YEAR LOSS             (DREGl §6M = 50%
MINUS PERTE/LOSS/                                                                             7254                7903
                            BV        L3-0.5XL4        6982              7607
VERLUST =            5
                                      EST ECOM/          993     1008      993      1008        993     1008       993      1008
PROD. BEER/BIERE     6    M/HL
BIERERZEUGUNG     NEXT YR/AN PROCH. J. BARTH
BEER +/-             7      PERCENT =* 1.5%
ANNUEL/YEAR                           PER ANNUM EST/VORSSCHAETZ.
                                      DREG EST           7.2       7.1     7.2        7.1       7.2        7.1      7.2       7.1
CONTENU/ANTEIL       8      GM/HL
CONTENT: ALPHA                         (COMEUR)
DEMAND/ NACH                           L6 X L8
                                                        7151      7157    7151       7157      7151      7157      7151      7157
FRAGE ALPHA          9      ALPHA T.
                                       L9 - LAX        6934       6956   6934        6956      6934      6956      6934     6956
BESOIN/BEDARF       10      BV: T.
REQJJIRED:B.V.
                            BV: T.     L5 - L10           48               673                  319                 969
SURPLUS! DEFIC)     11
UBERSCHl DEFIZ)
                            BV: T.                     5495       9542   9495      10168      9495       9814      9495    10463
STOCKS/BESTAND      12
1 SEPT.                      (ALGO)    EC COM.
                                       0.5 X L10       3575       3579   3575        3579      3575      3579      3575     3579
STOCKS/ BESTAND     13      BV: T.
6 MOIS (NORMAL
                                                          16        16      16         18        16         17       16        18
STOCKS/ BESTAND     14      MONTHS L12/L10
                                                                               »#»»»»»**            »#*»**»»»
AS MONTHS SUPPLY                       X 12
                                                          59        60      59         66        59         62       59        69
PERTE A N/VERL.     15      BV: T.      £ IX
LOSS YE AR
SUPERF/ FLAEChE     16      000 HA.    ALTS.              90                90                93.5                 93.5
AREA                                                     ALTERNATIVVORSCHAETZUZUNGEN/PREVISIONS ALTERNATIVES
         R AN/     17       000 HA.                   -6.20             -6.20                -2. 70              -2. 70
+(-) PA
JAHR/YE  AR
RENDEME NT/ERTR    18          T/HA.  ALTS.            1.34              1.46                 1.34                1-46
AG/YIEL D                             SDEV/STANDARDABWEICHUNGEN /ECART TYPE 1969-      •82
 ---pagebreak---               EURCCM V I - E - 3 HOPS: TAB 9 ( 8 3 / 1 )
                                                 REV.10.2.83
EEC 10 EXTERNAL TRADE IN HOPS AND PRODUCTS
            COMMERCE EXTERIEUR HOUBLON ET PRODUITS
            HANDEL MIT DRITTLAENDER HOPFEN U . PROD
PERIODE: SEPT 81-AUG. 82 SOURCE: EC(NItvEXE)
*********************************************
*********      C O N E S        PCWDERS        EXTRACT TOT. EQUI
   XI00 KG DOLDEN               POUDRES        EXTRAITS HOP/CONES
*********                       PULVER         AUSZUEGE DOLDEN*
C C T / T D O 1 2 . 0 6 . 1 0 1 2 . 0 6 . 9 0 1 3 . 0 3 . 1 6 <GZT NR)
BR DEUTSC
IMPORT.                  53251             415             759     56364
EXPORT.                  80273        66005           16138      209362
FRANCE
IMPORT.                    1546            629             120      2658
EXPORT.                    4775            195                0     4990
BELG/LUX.
IMPORT                   13371           2730              209     17106
EXPORT                      220            627             734      3479
UN. K I N G .
IMPORT                     5385            843             511      8101
EXPORT                     3077          2461              469      7426
HELLAS
 IMPORT                       0               0               0         0
EXPORT                        0               0               0         0
 IRELAND
 IMPORT                     659          1398              632      4409
EXPORT                       75            528             259       1562
 I TALIA
 IMPORT                      77            244               21       419
 EXPORT                        0              0               0         0
 DANMARK
 IMPORT                        0              0               7        25
 EXPORT                        0              1               5        19
 NEDERLAND
 IMPORT                        0             10          1533        5377
 EXPORT                        0              0              28        98
 TOTAL E E C
  IMPORT                 74289            6269            3792     94457
 EXPORT                  88420         69816           17600      226818
 =EEC NET
 EXPORTS.                 14131        63547           13808      132361
 KILOTONS                                                           13.24
 ---pagebreak---  ELfOMVI-E-3: KFSA^jLBXN/fCFFEN: WORD CfMtO TRENS FOR. V/RIETY GRXFS          T/810(83/l: FEV. 24.4.83)
                                   TvfR_ÆNQ€IA_: TB_m_S DE L'CIFRE CES DIVERS CSOPES DI V/RIETES
L. ND                              WELTMJKf: TETCENSM DER NCMTVGE CER 9QRIEKRH-N         (SORE/hAX: 0. EflSIH & 33N, N _ER_)
flrlM\nC<5cFU\E /R              1969     1970   1971    1972    1973      1974      1975       1976      1977   1978     1979   1980    1981   19820ML % aiPE          1963   1984    1985
 (CR 'A + B"):                                                                                                                                      PAAtE 1982/81:
1 FRD/&BHJXK5            T    42260     45205  33931   40230   45005    40589     42670      34611     41452   36549   39002   40767   48897  56550Cn-HR)
2 m^^DMHRaCE TCTJREQ          44634     42391  40607   39281   38414    33006     38056      38565      39533  4D959    42844  45187   47989  51250             6.80  54969  59147   63783
                                                                                                                                                    9-ML3=
3W-                      T    -2374      2814  -6676      949   6591      2583      4614     -3954       1919  -4410   -3842   -4420      903   5300        2
N T INIH^OT. W O
ED/tHCUflJMSKT-
CBJUG (CR. ' O
4      wa)/smntG         T    27788     28870  27675   23867   25332    29289     30242      30187      30808   32459   41261   40957   25917  26750
5 LB^/hPCHWCE T(QREG)         28385     27144  26650   26744   27266    28059     28962      29817      30464   30746   30502   29574   27803  25030           -9.97   21099  15846    9113
                                                                                                                                                     OJML6=
6+1-                      T     -597     1726   1025   -2877   -1934      1230      1280     '.  3 7 0
                                                                                                           344   1713   10759   11383   -1886    1720 24256
BITTER//MR (CR'D"                                                                                               >
7 FKE/ffQELCUG            T    24828    28513  34393   40916   47964     41303     40590      41962     45026   39912    41605  45071   56244  59900
8    C&RO/NOfWOE. T(dREG)      23722    30845  36049   39603   41780     42849     43081      42747     42118   41465 ' 41058    41167  42065  44021             4.65  47304   52189  58944
                                                                                                                                                     3-ML9=
9+/-                      T     1106    -2332  -1656     1313   6184     -1546     -2491        -785      2908  -1553      547    3904  14179  15879 35657
10 TOTA^VtRDFR
    WOEFNIEMNE
    (=A6O0)»*             T   94876    102568  95999  105013  118301   111176    113502     1D6760     117286  108920  121868  126795  131058 143200
11 CBvfld/hPCMR     TORE)     97792    100068 102344  104621  106897   109173    111450     113726     116002  118279  120555  122831  125108 127384             1.82 129660 131937
                                                                                                                                                     9_MI_L2=
12 +/-                   T     -2916     2520  -6345      392  11404      2003      2052      -6966       1284  -9359     1313    3964   5950  15816 21112
***NZJEAERvJFK: TCTA. A T m BRTH: 33ÆYEÆ5 3_ICHTLY DIHTERENT tTWELKIlvyihB CFFICIA. FIGS (TÆ. 1,3,5,7)
                 CE5*4EPZaQ>G NOH ÆGP6E FA. BRTH; K W FUR QNICE J=t-PEN VOM B2/IH3-ÆO?B£N LEICHT ÆÆD-EN
                 FRXLCTIOJ TCT. D'ÆBE5 BOTH: FELT RIR CERTA[fÆ5 AsT_ES DIFFERER LfTfftMNT CES OHFrRES QFFOELLES CE/IH3
 ---pagebreak---                                                               PRODUCTION         >!•>•/    BIERBRZCUCUNC/          BBBR     PRODUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                      TABL 11 (B3 -        1)(WP 0099S
000 H E C T O L I T R E S )                                                                                                                                           16 APR 1 9 8 3 .
Sourest :                                                         1                                         :                    !                                     I
Joh. B a r t h u . SohD
CBHC                                  197*    :        1975              1976                  1977                 1978                1979                1980       :         1981             1982
EEC COMMISSION                  I                                                                           I
                                t                                                       t                   I
CEB / EWS / E E C                  226    735      229    020         236    507       :   232      297         232     320         234     878         238     040         237 3 3 7    :    238    037
                                                                                                                                                                       :   (EST.CEE)
X * (-)     par      yaar             1,2     :         1.0       :        3,3         :         (1,8)                           :       1,1        !        1.3       >                          0.3
           U S A               s   182    262     188     420     :   192     182      :   200      165    :    210     135         215    809     :    227     746         228    950        EST    229
X * (-)     par      year             4,6             2,8        :        2,0                  4,1         :         5,0                2,7                5,5        :          0,05            + 0
US8R                                50   800        60    000          62    500       :     65     000    :     65     000     :     70   000     :     70     000          65    000         68    000
Romania                               5  000          7   449            8   200       :       7    910            8    150            8   300             8    500          11    500         11    500
Bulgaria                             4   000          4   000            5   200       :       5   200     :       5 160               5   500             5    400            5 400             6  000
Poland                              12   440        12    860          12    318            12     069           11    376           11   127            11     185          11    300         10   300
DDR                                 19   800        20    200          21    000            22     000           23    000           23   000            24    000           24    000         25   000
CSSR                                22   138        22    373          2 2 SOO              22 SOO               22    058           23   610            23    393           23    930         24   921
Hungary                              6   458          6   631            6   738              7    003             7   244             7 SOO               7 800               7   800          7 825
Cuba                                 1    851         3   300            3   500              3 SOO               3    000             2  307             2    365            2    400    EST   2   400
TOTAL COHECOM                     122    987      136     813        141     956          145      182         144     990         151    344         148      128        151     330        155    950
X • (-)     par     yaar          •   4,0       +    11,2            +    3.8             +     2.3                 -              +    4,4            (3)    -   1       •    2.2           + 3
Australia                           18   300        19   340           19    717            19     511          19     511           19   678           19    433           20    170         19    682
Sapana                              13   481        16    618          17    127            18     600          18     653           19   712           20 027      :       20 9 2 0   :      21    499
Japan                               36  084         39   290           36    393            41     242          44 3 0 0       :    44    758           45    138           46    480         47    335
Canada                              19   133        21   238           20    227            20    227           20 3 8 9      :      20   386           20 6 6 9    :       20 5 0 0   : EST    20 SOO
Argentina                            4   578         4    123           2    680              2    543            2    043            2 100      :        2   328             2 370    :        2   237
New Z e a l a n d                    3   990         4   140            4   095               4    180            4    371            4 200      :        3   783             3   800           3   900
JugoalavlJe                          9   429         8   477            8    685              9    588          10 0 5 5      :     11    300           11    712   :       12 0 0 0   :        3   402
TOTAL GROUP        4              106   995       113    226        108     924           116 053        :    119     319          122    228         123 0 9 0     :    126 070       :    128     555
It + ( - )  per     year          +   1.9         + s.«             -    4,0              +    6,5            *   2,8         :    + 2,4        :     + 0,7         :    •    2,4      :      + 2
Autraa/anda r e / O t h e r a     130   615       134    928        138     986           153     694         167     361          185 0 2 6    :     194     400        206      216       212     458
X + (->     par     yaar             8,0             3,3                3,0                 10,6                  8,9               10,5        :         5,0                 6,0      :          3
VRLD/HONDE/WELT K / H L :               7 70             802    :           819      :            847                 873     :          909          931    404         949      903    EST        964
   t   X                      ,            4                4                  2     :               4                   3                   4                   3                  2           1.5
                                                                                                        I                                       I
 ---pagebreak--- TAB. 12 83/1 HOPS/HCPFEN/HCXIBLON: CEE/EWG/EEC-MARKET BALANCE/MQRKTBILANZ/EQUILIBRE DU tvWRCHE (CCMEUR VI -E-3 REV29 4 83
—  =
    * — — — —— — — — — — — — — — —
                                                                 1976     1977     1978    •1979     1980      1981     1982     1983
                                    1973      1974     1975
L.   NO                                                                                     44. 9    39. 6     42.1     56. 2
                                    52. 6     47. 9    44. 6     39. 9    47.8     42. 7
1        PRODUCTION
                                                        10.8      9.4     10.5      9.6     14. 2    10.6      13. 2    13.5
2        NET EXPORT                 10. 2     10. 6
      ! SEPT - AUG
                                              37. 3     33.8     30. 5    37.3     33.1     30.7        29      28.9    42.7
3        NET SUPPLY EC              42. 4
         L I - L2
                                             38.04    32.97     35.91    34. 84   33.77     32.7    31.64     30.57     29.5    28. 43
4        DEMAND EC                  39.1
                                                                                                                                -3%PA
         DREG EC COVM.
                                      3.3     -.74        .83   -5.41     2. 46    -.67        -2   -2.64     - 1 . 67   13.2
5        EXCESS OR DEF
          (L10 - L13)
                                                      26.09     26. 92   21. 51   23.97      23.3     20.3       15. 9   16. 4   29.60
6         STOCK 1 SEPT             23. 53    26.83
                                                                                                                                   EST
          (PROF. ORGS.)
                                             19. 02  16.485    17.955    17.42   16.885    16.35    15.82    15.285     14.75    14. 22
7         STOCK "NORM"             19. 55
          (6M; =.5 X L4)
8     ! EXC/DEF OVER (L19-L22)                                                                                                   15.39
                                               7.81   9. 605    8. 965     4.09  '7.085      6. 95    4. 48      . 615    1. 65
          NORM STCCK+/-              3.98                                                                                     7      12
                                                   8         9        9.       7         9        9        8          6
8A        L.6=NO MONTHS                  7
                                                                  27.8     27.2     25.3     24. 6    25.3       26.7     27. 6      27
9         000 HA                    29. 5      29. 3        29
                                                                                                                                   EST
                                                                  1. 44    1.76     1.69     1.83     1. 57      1.58     2.04
 10       YIELD T/HA                 1. 78 .   1. 63     1.54
                                                                             232     233      231       237         238    239      240
 11       BEER PROD MHL               2 27      229        237     232
           (NEXT YR/NAECHSTES         JAHR/ ANN. PRCCH.
                                                                             150     145      142       134         128    123      118
12        GM/HL (L11/L4               172       166        139     155
                                                                     11       -3       -3       -2       -6          -4      -4      -4
13        GM/HL %> P . A .                        -4       -16
          LINES 1 TO 8: UNIT IS KILOTONS (= 1000 T , 20 000
 ---pagebreak--- COMEUR V I - E - 3 : HOPS/HCUBLON/HOPFEN. ALT. FORECASTS/ALTERNATIVE VCRAUSSCHAETZUNGEN/PREVISIONS^ALT.
TAB.13 83/1 REV 15 APR 83               ALT I                ALT II            ALT III          ALT IV
                                       1983       1984      1983      1984    1983      1984   1983     1984
L . NO
1      PRODUCTION                         41               50.49                41            50.49
2      NET EXPORT                      12.5                 12.5              13.5             13.5
     ! SEPT - AUG                ALT. ESTS
3      NET SUPPLY EC '                28.81                37.99             27.81            36.99
       L I - L2
                                       28. 4      27.4      28.4      27.4    28.4      27.4   28. 4    27.4
4      DEMAND EC
       DREG EC CGMv).
5      EXCESS OR DEF                   0.41                 9.59              -.59             8. 59
       (L10 - L13)
 6     STOCK 1 SEPT                    29. 6     30.01      29. 6    39.19    29. 6    29.01   29.6    38.19
       CARRYOVER= 82+ L5(82)
 7     STOCK "NORM"                    14. 2      13.7      14. 2     13.7    14. 2     13.7   14.2     13.7
        (6M; =.5 X L4
 8     EXC/DEF OVER
       NORM STCCK+/-                   15.4      16. 31     15. 4   .25.49    15. 4    15. 31  15.4    24.49
 8A     L19=NO MONTHS STOCK                13        13        13        17      13        13     13       17
 9       000 HA                            27                  27                27               27
                                 ALTS.   +/-SDEV/ECART   TYPE/STANDARDABWEICHUNG
  10    YIELD T/HA                      1.53                 1.87              1.53            1.87
  11    BEER PRCO M-IL FORECAST          240        241       240       241     240       241    240      241
         (NEXT YR/NAEC PREVIS.
  12     GM/HL (L11/L4                   118        114       118       114     118       114    118      114
  13     GM/HL %> P . A .                  -4         -4
         LINES 1 TO 8:
 ---pagebreak---                                                                         B / ^ L A N C E / B I L A N A L P H A 0LPHAVERSCRGUN35BI       LfiNZ          TAB 14(83/1)
                             HOJBIXJN-HCPS- rCPrEN:CEE/BAG       ALPHA
                                                                                                                                                     R E V 23.4.83
                                                                      1973             1974             1975          1976         1977         1978         1979         1980        1981        1982
                                                     CALC.
                             Lire ro.   UNIT.
                                                                   1056022          959182           893587         797988       956763       853418       898985       791895      922909     1132911
                                1      ZTR           DATA
P F G X J C T I C N t-OJBLQN                                         52801            47959           44679          39899        47838        42671        44949        39595       46145       56646
rCP/ERZEUaN3                            TCNNES       Ll/20
                                                                      7.30              6.47                          5.70         6.25         6.13         6. 30        6.13        6.44        5.65
CCNTENJ/ANfTEIL                  2      PERCENT      L3/L1
CENTENT: ALPHA
                                                                      3854               3102            2928         2274          2988        2616          2834        2427         2974        3200
ALPHA ACID
 PROXCTICN/EBZEUG.               3      ALPHA T. LI X L2
                                                      V. TAB 6A       9.12               8.88            8. 56        8.56          7.84         7.B4         7.76         7.36        6. 56       6. 34
 PERTE/AM VERLUST                4      PERCENT
                                                      96M = 50%
 JArR/ YcLOR LOSS
 MINUS P E R T E / L Q S S /                                                              2964            2803         2177         2871         2513         2724         2338        2876        3099
                                         BV           L3-0.5XL4        3678
 VERLUST =                        5
                                                      DATA              227                 229             237          232          232          233          231          237         238         239
 FRCD. BEER/fllERE                6    MM.                                                                                                                                                         PREV
  BI£RCT(2BJQJN3               NEXT YR/NAECH5TE5 J/W/AMsEE PROCHA1NE : J . EVRTH
                                                                       2205                      1              3          -2            0            0           -1            3           0           0
  BEER +/-                        7      PERCENT
  ANJNLEL/YEm
                                         CM/HL         L10/L6          9.71                               6.19         6.34          5.40         5.63         4. 62        5.81        5.13        4.88
  CCNTENJ//WEIL                   6
  CCNTENT: ALPHA
  CEtvWO/ N°CH                                         DREG EST
                                         ALPHA T. (CCMEUR)             3022                2520            2191         2003         1927         1929         1978         2042        2091        1929
  FRAGE ALPHA                      9
                                         BV: T.        L9 - L4%        2884                2408            2097         1917         1851         1853         1901         1967        2022        1868
   BESOIN/BEQAR-"                10
  REQJIRED:B.V.
                                          KT HEPS      EURDSTAT/        17.5               18.7                20       18.4         17.5          17.5         22.5        20.3         22.7
   E>PCRT/AUSFUhR 6              11
   A-PHA% EEC/EWGCL2)                          = ===   NIMEXE
                                          KT HEPS ELRD5TAT/               7.3                 8.1            9.2             9            7         7.9           8.2         9.7         9.4
                     r
    IivpERT/EIN Ll-R 8           11A
   ALPHA% ^CRLDAvODE                           ===== NIMEXE
                                          KT HEPS       Lll-LllA        10.2                10.6            10.8           9.4        10.5           9.6        14.3         10.6        13.3        13.5
   E>PCRT5 .NET                   12
                                                                                                                                                                                              PREV.
                                           T ALPHA      Lll-LllA           817                 727            725          531         673           616          910          666        870          763
    EXPERTS ,N£T                  13
                                           T B.V        IDEM - L5           779                694            694          508         647           592          875          642         841         739
    EXPERTS .NET                  14
                                  15       BV: T.       L5 - (L10        -123                -250             -82        -335           297            -8        -129        -346          -56         431
    SURPLUS (DEFIC)
    U3ERSCH(0EF1Z)                                      +L14)
     STOCKS/BEST AND               16      BV: T.       EC PRO-".        1641                1517            1267         1185          850         1148         1140         1011         903         988
     1 SEPT.                               STAT 80-XTGSCPREVIOJS YEAR'S ALPHA)
     STOCKS/         EESTAND       17       BV: T.       0.5 X L10        1442                1204           1049           959         926           927          951          983       1011          934
     6 NOIS            ;NCRVPL
     STOCKS/ BESTAND               18      'vCNTHS/     L16/L10                  7                 8              7            7            6            7            7           6           5           6
     AS tvOMTHS SUPPLY                     MDIS         X 12
     PERTE ANNJEL/VERLU 19                  BV: T.        S 1%                   2                 3              2            2            0            2            2           0           0           1
     S T ' Y E A R ' S LOSS
      SUPER'"/        FLAECHE       20       000 HA.     DATA           29333               29153           29045        27821        27232        25262        24650        25352       26698       27565
      A3EA
      • / - P.3R AN/PR JA-R 21               000 HA\                                   -180.00          -108.00 -1224.00           --589.00 -1970.00         -612.00       702.00     1346.00       867.00
      SINCE LAST YEAR
      REM»E            N17ERTR      22          T/rW.     L1/L20            1.80               1.65           1.54         1.43         1.76         1.69          1.82        1.56        1.73        2.05
      A3/YIEL        D
 ---pagebreak---                              K1BLCN-I-CPS-I-CR-"£N:        ALTERNATIVE FORECASTS ALPHA EEC/BAG             TAB. 15(83/1: REV 23.4.83)
                                                                                 1    =============11                    III                  IV
                                                                        1983       1984      1983     19B4      1983         19B4     1983       1984
                             L I N E ND UNIT.         CALC.
FRCOUCTICN HOUBLCN                1     T             DATA            41399                 50598             41399                  50598
KP/ER2EUQJN3
CCNTENJ/ANTEIL                    2     PERCENT       AVERAGE           6.01                 6.01               6.01                  6.01
ŒNTENT: ALPHA                                         EC/EW3 72-82
ALPHA ACIO                                                              2488                 3041               2488                  3041
PRCLXJCTICN/ERZELG.               3     ALPHA T. LI X L2
PERTE/AN VERLUST                  4     PERCENT       V. TAB 6A         6.05       5.63      6.05     5.63      6.05         5.63     6.05        5.63
 JAhR/ YEAR LQ5S                         (CREG)       36M = 50%
MINUS PERTE/LOSS/
 VERLUST =                        5     BV            L3-0.5XL4          2413                 2949              2413                   2949
 FRCD. BEER/6IERE                  6     M/HL          EST                 240       241        240     241       240          241       240        241
 BIERERZELDJNG                                         ELFCCM
 BEER +/-                          7     PERCENT       FCRECAST                     1.00
 ANNJEL/YEAR                                           PER ANNJM
 CCNTENJ/ANTEIL                    8     CM/HL         CREG EST          5.11       5.11      5.11     5.11      4.86         5.11     4.86        5.11
 CONTENT* ALPHA                                         (COvELR)
  DEMVsD/ NACH                                         DREG EST
  FRAŒ ALPHA                        9     ALPHA T., ELR C O M             1979      2043      1979     2043      1979         2043     1979        2043
  EES01N/BEDARF                   10      BV: T.        L9 - L4%          1919      1986       1919    1986      1919         1986      1919      1986
  REQJIR£D:B.V.
  EXPORT/AUSFUrR i                11      KT HCPS
  ALPHA% EEC/EW3(L2)                           ====
  INPCRT/ElrfU-R a                11A     K T HOPS
  ALPHA% W T Î L D / N C N D E                  === =
                                  12      KT HEPS       PREV ALTS         12.5       13.5      12.5    13.5      13.5         13.5      13.5       13.5
  E>PCRTS NET
  EXPCRTS NET                     13      T ALPHA       9 AV72-82           751       811        751     811       811          811       811        811
                                                         IDEM - L5          729        789       729     789       787          789       787        789
   EXPERTS NET                     14      T B.V
   SLRPLUS(DEFIC)                  15      BV: T.        L5 - (L10         -294                  242               494                  1030
   LBERSCH(DEFIZ)                                        +L14)
                                                                                                1419    1661      1419         1913      1419       2449
   STOCKS/BESTAN3                  16      BV: T .       L15 + L16         1419      1125
    1 SEPT.                                               C82) =83
                                                                                                  989   1022        989        1022        989      1022
   STOCKS/     EE STAND            17      BV: T.         0.5 X L10          989      1022
    6 NOIS      (NERvPL
                                                                                                    9     10           9         12           9        15
    STOCKS/    BESTANO              18     MENTHS         L16/L10              9         7
                                                                                                                        ***»*»»*»
   AS NONTHS SUPPLY                                       X 12
                                                                                                            6          4           9          4
    PERTE AfNJEL/VERLU 19                   BV: T .        9   1%              4          1         4
    ST/ YEAR'S LOSS
                                                                                               27058             27058                  27058
    SUPER-""/   FLAECHE             20      HA            PREVISICN       27058
    AREA                                    V . TAfi 1 :(IHB/EC)
                                                                                            -507.00           -507.00                -507.00
    + / . P/-R AN/PR JAHR 21                HA                         -507.00
    SINCE LAST YEAR
                                                          L1/L20            1.53                 1.87              1-53                   1.87
    RENDEME NT/ERTR                 22          T/HA.
    AG/YIEL D                                                   STANDARD AEMElCHLbG/ECART TYPE/STAMWD CEVIATICN 1972-82
 ---pagebreak--- VI-E-3                                                                                                            TAB. 16 (83-1)
                     Pourcentage de houblon vendu sous contrat et relation prix hors contrat - sous contrat
                     Prozentsatz von Vertragshopfen und V e r h ä l t n i s Preise Freihopfen - Vertragshopfen
                     Percentage of hops sold under contract and relation p r i é e s without contract - under contract
                             hors contrat          sous contrat             % sous contract        hors contrat        sous contrat
                              Frei hopfen         Vertragshopfen            % Vertragshopfen        Frei hopfen       Vertragshopfen
                           without contract       under contract            % under contract     without contract     under contract
                                50 kg                 50 kg                                         ECU/50 kg            ECU/50 kg
                                   1                     2                          3                    A                   5
A) CE
    1975                       202.672               689.378                        77                 72,80              114,13
    1976                       174.172               620.353                        78                 95,18              121,49
    1977                       327.043               623.643                        66                 46,45              118,76
    1978                       166.036               686.210                        81                106,29              111,73
    1979                       150.109               745.308                        83                182,12              118,30
    1980                        67.385               723.983                        91                469,00              133,00
    1981                       154.754               768.155                        83                225,63              162,78
    1982                       363.795               763.131                        68                 65,18              176,93
B) CE (1982)                                                                                       81        82        81        82
    BR Deutschland             288.580               555.746                        66             228       65        142       154
           1
    France                      17.702                16.990                        49             205       58         140      155
    Belgique/BeLgi?             27.450                12.956                        32             215       66        252       195
                   1
    United Kingdom              30.063               175.684                        85             192       69        217       249
    Ireland                                            1.755                       100                                 325       338
   Greece/HelLas                                          570                      100
  Noch unverkauft am 31.3.83 / S t i l l unsold as at 31.3.83 / Toujours invendus au 31.3.83 : Ztr = F + 4.000; B + 2.000; UK 13.315
 ---pagebreak---                             TAB. 17        SYNOPSIS OF MEMBER STATES' RETURNS/ERL.&S BERECHNUNG/CALC . DE L A RECETTE             - 1 -
  <WP 02168)
                                                1       :     2      :     3      :       4     :      5   :      6      :       7         TA B17
                1982                    :    TP/ha      :   NP/ha    :   NP/ha    :    PP/ha         TP          PP      : Production
                                                                                                                                        P1     P2
                                             1982       :   1982     :   1981     :    1982        ECU/ha     ECU/ha     :  (50 kg)
                                                           (x 0.40) :   (x 0.65)  :   (x 1.00) :    1982      1982    1) :    1982
                                                                                                                                        P3     F4
Hallertauer                      D      :   2 638,0     :     35,0 :       94,0       2 509,0       4 958      5 009         89 174
                                 F      :                                                                                               P5     P6
                                 B            124,6     :       5,2  :       6.3  :     113,1       4 895      5 114          5 426
                            CEE         :   2 762,6     :     40,2   :    100,3       2 622,1       4 947      5 055     :   94 600     P7     P8
Hersbrucker                      D          4 921,0          309,0   :    520,0   :   4 092,0       5 447      5 780     :  227 932
                                 B      :
                            CEE         :   4 921,0 :        309,0   :    520,0   :   4 092,0       5 447      5 780     :  227 932
Huller                           D      :
                            CEE         :   1 379,0     :       8.0  :     11,0   :   1 360,0       4  487     4  511        50 109
Spalter                          D      :     295.0     :       4,0  :     11,0   :     280,0       5  272     5  338         9 737
                                 B      :         9,4   :       0,9  :       0,2  :         8,3     6  385     6  828            399
                            CEE         :     304,4     :       1,3  :     11,2   :     288,3   :   5  307     5  381        10 136
Tettnanger                       D      :     940,0     :     36,0   :     36,0   :     868,0       5  350     5  538        29 222
                                 B      :         0,7   :                                   0,7     2  686     2  686             20
                            CEE         :     940,7     :     36,0   :     36,0   :     868,7   :   5  348     5  536        29 242
Progress                       UK
                            CEE               129.1     :                    1.2  :     127.9   :   4  951     4  967         4 416
Fuggles                         B                 9,3   :                                   9,3 :   2  063     2  063            215
                               UK             590,4     :     18,7   :     25,6   :     546.1       7  379      7 640        17 763
                               IR               12.1    :                                 12,1      6  310     6  310            238
                             CEE              611,8     :     18,7   :     25,6   :     567,5       7  276      7 524        18 216
Goldings                       UK
                             CEE               532,9          17 ,3        32,0         483,6       9 405       9 802        19 620
W.G.V.                         UK
                              CEE              244,6            1.4          2,3         240,9      5 946       5 986          7 757
 Bramling                      UK
                              CEE        :      320,8                                    320,8   :   4 494  :   4  4 94      11  288
 Challenger                      B       :         1,1   :       0,4  :       0,4  :        0,3  :   6 945  :  10 685              38
                                UK       :      855,0          38,8   :     62.0   :      754,2  :   8 941  :   9  437    :   34 290
                              CEE        :     856,1     :     39.2   :     62.4   :     754.5   :   8 939  :   9 439     :   34 328
 Saaz                             B
                              CEE        :       11,9                              :.      11,9 ,:   2 687  :   2 687            361
 Strisoolspalt                    F
                              CEE        :     181,7     :       1,2. :       6    :     174,5   :   4 819  :   4 895          6 569
     (1) C o l . 6 = c o 1  2
                           ' - *   A
                                         = x: c o l . 5 S.
                       col.        1 S.
 ---pagebreak---    (WP 0216S)                                                                                                                       - 2 -
                      :      8    :      9             10              11        :     12    :     13        :     14       :          15
            1982      : Rendem.   :         Production                       P R I X         :        RETURN/GESAMTERLOS (ECU)
                      : 50 kg/ha  : "contrat"      "spot"      " c o n t r a t " : "spot"    : "contrat" :        "spot" :        Total
                      :   (7:1)     (50 kR>        (50 kc)     ECU/50 ks: :ECU/50 kK         : (9 x 11) : (10 x 12) : (13 + 14)
Hallertauer        D  :     33,9      68 639       20 535          167,75             74,94     11 519 603: 1 535 679 : 13 055 281
                   F
                   B  :     43,5        1 380       4 046          239,76             69,02        330 854:       279 268 :        610 122
                 CEE  :     34.2  :    70 019   :  24 581          169.25             73.84     11 850 457: 1 814 947 • 13 665 403
Hersbrucker        D  :     46,3  :  136 604    :  91 328          160,76             52,81     21 973 153- 4 833 327          26 806 480
                   B
                 CEE       46,3   :  136 604    :  91 328          160,76             52,81   : 21 973 153      4 833 327      26 806 480
Huller             D
                 CEE       36,3   :   34 000       16 109          156,10             54,75   :   5 302 659       884   767 :    6 187 426
Spalter            D       33,0   :     6 259   :   3 478          192,21            100,96   :   1 203 421:       351  777 :    1 555 197
                   B       42,4           198   :        201 :      213,65            88,66   :      42 303         17  820 :          60 123
                 CEE       33,3         6 457   :    3 679   :      192,93           100,46   :   1 245 724       369   597  :   1 615 320
Tettnanger         D       31,3   :   20 174    :    9 048         202,31            104,85   :   4 080 329       948   829  :   5 029 158
                   B       30,2                 :         20                          88,95                   :       1 779  :          1 779
                 CEE       31,1   :   20 174    :    9 068         202,31         :  104,83   :   4 080 329 :      950  608  :   5 030 937
Progress         UK
                 CEE       34,2   :     2 135   :    2 281         232,70         :   62,34   :     496  8 0 21    142  403 :       639   205
Fuggles            B       23,2                          215                          88,95   :        _      :     19  124 :          19 124
                  UK       30,1   :   15 434    :    2 329         269,02             87,69   :   4 152 042:       204  230 :    4 356    272
                  IR       12.1           238   :      -           319,46         :     -     :       76 031:        —       :         76 031
                 CEE       29.8       15 672        2 544          269,79             87.80   :   4 228 073 :      223  354 :    4 451    427
GoldingS          UK
                 CEE       36,8       16 879    :   7.   741       281,38             95,77   :   4 749 614:       262 506 :     5 012 120
W.G.V.           U K
                 CEE       31.7   :     5 593       2 164          231,44             73,95   :   1 294 439       160 028            5
                                                                                                                                JL* * .M _  7
Braiuling         UK
                 CEE       35.2         6 128   :    5 160         192.08             51.26   :   1 177  071      264 502 :      1 441    573
Challenger         B       34,0            35              3       212,34            111,18   :        7 432 :          333 :           7 765
                  UK       40,1       30 765    :   3 525          241,07             64,72   :   7 416  622      228 138        7 644    760
                 CEE       40,1       30 800        3 5?8          214^04             64.76      7 424   054 :     228 471 :     7 652    525
Saaz               B
                 CEE       30,3                         361                           88, 70                  :     32 022           32 022
Strisselspalt      F
                 CEE :    36,2   :     5 528        1 040          146,05             65 ,40        807 403         68 034 :        875 437
 ---pagebreak---     (WP 0216S)                                                                                 -  3 -
                        1           2             3            4          5        6              7
          1982        TP/ha       NP/ha        NP/ha         PP/ha       TP       PP      * Production
                      1982        1982         1981          1982     ECU/ha   ECU/ha        (50 leg)
                                 (x 0.40) :   ( x 0.65)    (x 1.00)    1982    1982 ( 1 )      1982
Bourgogne        F
               CEE        4,8                                    4.8   1   784  1   784           121
Star             B
               CEE        4,6  :     1,0                         3,6   4 896    5  630            205
Perle            D      77,1      243,0        264,0          264,0    4 195    5 896         29 69S
                 B        0,1       0,1           0,1   :         0,0  1 438    3 384               2
               CEE     771,1      243,1        264,1          264,0    4 194    5 896         29 697
Saxon           UK
               CEE      58,3                                   58,3    5  438   5 438          1 905
Sunshine        UK
               CEE        0,9                                    0.9   1 885    1  885             21
Aroma            O  10944,0       635 ,0       936,0       9  373,0    5 107    5  389       435 869
                 F     186,5                      6,0         179,3    4 740    4  825         6 689
                 B     161,7        7,6           7,0         147 ,2   4 661    4  871         6 666
                UK  2 732,0        76,2        123,1       2 533,0     7 610    7  865        97 060
                IR      12,1                                   12,1    6 310    6  310            238
                6R                                                                   1
               CEE 14  036,3      718,8     1  072,0      12 065,3     5  584   6  006       546  522
Nb.  Brewer      0    5788,0      160,0        151,0       5 477,0     5  448   5  586       251  789
                 F     106,9                                  106,9    4  802   4  802         3  716
                 B     310,7        3,0           7,7         300,0    6  064   6  153        13  089
                UK     250,9                     27,1         223,8    7  574   7  872         7  802
                IR      48,6                                   48,6    4  871   4  871         1  084
               CEE  6 505.1       163 .0       185 .8      6 156.3     5  561   5  704       277  480
Brewer's Gold    D    2863,O      349,0        454,0       2 06O.0     5  SS2   5  919       144  869
                 F     451,3        1.3           1.5         448,5    4  963   4  977        24  112
                 B     349,1       15 ,8         11,1         322,2    4  220   4  388        19  141
                UK      28,1                                   28,1    5  588   5  588         1  159
               CEE  3 691,5       366,1       466.7        2 858,8     5  145   5  740       189  281
Bullion         UK     255,7        5.5          11.7         238,5    4  714   4  854         9  725
                IR        0,2 •                                  0,2   6  874   6  874              6
               CEE     255,9        5.5          11,7         238,7    4  717   4  857         9 731   :
 ---pagebreak---     (WP 0216S)                                                                                                                  _  4  _
                              8            9      :      10       :     11     :    12     :     13      :        14     :        15
             1982         Rendent.            Production          :        P R I X         :        RETURN/GESAMTERLÔS (ECU)
                         50 kg/ha    "contrat" :     "spot"       : "contrat" :   "spot"   : "contrat" :     "spot"      :     Total      :
                           (7:1)      (50 kK)        (50 k*)      : ECU/50 k* : ECU/50 kfc :  (9 x 11) : (10 x 12) : ( 1 3 + 1 4 ) :
Bourgogne           F
                  CEE       25,3                            121   ·                70,62   :                     8 546   :        8 546 :
Star                B
                  CEE       44,3              80            125       155,68       81,79           12 453·     10 224    :       22 677
Perle               D        38,5       13 251         16 444         173,96       56,31       2 307 154      927 093        3 234 247
                    B        21,6                              2                   66,71                            133              133
                  CEE        38.5       13 251         16 446         173,96                   2 307 154      927 226        3 234 370
Saxon              UK
                  CEE        32,6         1 496             409       197,09       54.25    :     294 841:      22 188    :     317 029
Sunshine           UK
                  CEE        23,3  s               :          21               :    50,00                  :      1,697   :        1  697
Aroma                D :     39,8  :   278   927     156    942    :   166,25      60,34    : 46 386 318: 9 481 472       :55 867    790
                    F  :     35,9         5  528   :     1   161   :   146,06  :    65,96   :     807 403       76 580    :     883   983
                    B        41,2  :      1  693   :     4   973   :   232,16  :    72,53   :     393 042:     360 703    :     753   745
                   UK  :     35,5  :     78  430       18   630    :   249,66  :    65,00   : 19 580 834: 1 210 950       :20 791     784
                   IB  :     12,1  :         238                   :   319,46               :       76 034                :       76  031
                   6R
                  CEE        38,9  :  364    816   :  181    706   :   184,32  :    61,25   : 67 243 628:11   129    705   :78  373  333
N t . Brewer        D        43,5  :  172    450   :    79   339·  :   143768   :   85,43   : 24 752 135 : 6   781   701   :31  533  835
                    F  :     34,7         1  486   :     2   230   :   195,95   :   99,72   :     291,187 :    222   366   :     513  553
                    B  :     42,1         6  674   :     6   415   :   203,73   :   81,70   :   1 359 686 :    524   118   : 1  883   804
                   UK        31,1         7  498   :         304   :   251,04   :   59,13   :   1 882 300:      17   976   : 1  900   276
                   IB        22,3  :      1  084                   :   316,03               :     342 577                  :    342   577
                  CEE       42.7      189    192   :    88   280   :   151,32   :   85,48   : 28 627 885 : 7   546   161   :36  174  046
Brewer's G o l d    D        50,6       94   919   :    49   950   :   134,74   :   46,60   : 12 796 703 : 2   324   772   :15  121  475
                    F        53,4         9  826   :    14   286   :   153,62   :   51,16   :   1 509 389:     730   542   : 2  239   931
                    B
                             54 ,8        4  380   :    14   761   :   167,24   :   51,19   :     732 554:     740   740   : 1  473   294
                   UK
                            41,3          1  159                   :   135,47               :     157 013                  :    157   013
                  CEE        51.3     110    284   :    78 997     :   137.79   :   48,05   : 15 195 659 : 3   796 054     :18  991   713
Bullion            UK       38,0          8  937   :         788   :   128,10   :   47,54   :   1 144 855 :     60 553     : 1  205   408
                   IR       26,9               6                   :   274,99               :        1 650                 :       1  650
                  CEE       38,0          8 943    :         788   :   128,20   :   47,54   :   1 146 505 :     60 553     : 1  207   058
 ---pagebreak---     (WP    0216S)                                                                                                    -  5 -
                                   1       :      2     :       3     :      4             5     :      6               7
               1982        :     TP/ha     :    NP/ha   :    NP/ha    :    PP/ha    :    TP      :     PP        Production  :
                                 1982           1982    :    1981          1982     :  ECU/ha    :  ECU/ha    :   ( 5 0 kg)
                                               (x 0.40) :   (x 0.65) :    (x 1.00) :    1982     :  1982 <1) :        1982
Target                  B  :         0,7   :      0,6   :       0,0   :        0,0  :   3 499    :   3 768    :           21
                      UK        1 246,2    :     63,3   :    108,6    :   1 074,3   :   9 111    :   9  703   :     46 714   :
                     CEE   :    1 246,9    :     63,9        108,6        1 074,3   :   9 107    :   9  702   :     46 735   :
K. M i d s e a s o n  UK   :
                     CEE   :      100.8    :                                100.8   :   4  294       4  294   :       4 233  :
Northdown                B           0,0   :      0,0   :                      0,0  :   2  143       2  143   :            1 :
                       UK       1 001,0    :     33,3   :     45,9    :     921,8       9  345       9  694   :     36 546   :
                       IS  :        14,0   :                    1,1   :      12,9   :  12  243      12  587   :         427  :
                     CEE   :    1 015,0    :     33,3   :     47,0    :     934,7   ·   9   386      9   736        36 974
Amer                     D :    8 651,0    :    509.0   :    605,0    :   7 537,0   .   5  393       S 688        396 658    :
                         P        558,2    :                    1.5   :     556,7       4   574      4 578          27 828   :
                         B        660,5          19,4         18,9    :     6??, 2      5   089      5 234          32 252   :
                       UK       2 882,7         102.1   :    193,3        2 587,3       8   459      8 855        106 179
                       IR           62,8                        1.1          61,7       6   520      6   560          1 517
                       6R
                     CEE       12  815^2        630, 5       819,8       11 364,9       6   061   :   6  393      564 434
Record                   D        390,0          14,0          29,0         347 ,0   :   4  550   :   4   701  :     11 799   :
                         F            5,7                              !        5,7  :   5   992  :   5   992  :         175
                         B  :        36,8                              :       36,8  :   4   100  :   4   100  :       1 485
                     CEE    :      432,5    :     14,0   :      29.6   :     389.5   :   4   531  :   4   734  :     13 459   :
Vlking                  UK
                     CEE    :          3.8                             :        3.8  :   6   5/7  :   6 577    :         122  :
 Yeoman                 UK
                      CEE          199.6    :    143.6    :     54 .3  :        1.7      1  876   :   3 965    :       1 605  :
 Zenith                 UK
                      CEE    :       48,4    :    32,1    :     15,9   :        0,4  :   3 238    :   6 648    :         764  :
 ---pagebreak---    (WP   0216S)                                                                                                                              -   6 -
                                    8             9            10      :      11     :    12      :       13                 14                15
                   1982         Rendent.             Production                  P R I X          :          RETURN/GESAMTERLttS (ECU)
                               50  kg/ha     "contrat" :     "spot"    : "contrat" :    "spot"    : "contrat" :        " s p o t tt        Total
                                  (7:1)       <50            (50 k K )    ECU/50 k R : ECU/50 k K :    (9 x 11) : (10 x 12)              (13 + 14)
Target                       B     30, 7             21                     113,85                :          2 391:          —                  2 391
                           UK      37,5        40 916         5 798         266,01        81,00      10 884 131:         469 638 :11 353 769
                     -    CEE      3/ ,5       40 937         b 798         265,93        81,00      10 886 522:         469 638 :11 356 160
K. M i d s e a s o n       UK
                          CEE      42,0         3 300           933         118,73        44,03           391 771:         41 080           432 851
Northdown                    B     24,1                -           1    :      -          89,00              -      :               89              89
                           UK      36,5        33 560         7 986         273,01    :    64,49   :   9 162    226:      192 567      : 9  354 793
                           IR      30,5             427            -    :    404,38   :                   172   670:          -             172 670
     •                    CEE      36 ,4       33 987         2 987     :    274,66   :    64,50   :    9 334   896:      192     656  : 9  527 552
Amer                         D     45 ,6      267 369     • 129 289     :    140,51   :    70,43   :  37 548    838:  9 106       472  :46  655 310
                             F     47,3        11 312        16 516     :    159,17   :    57,70   :    1 800   576:      952     908  : 2  753 484
                             B     48,8        11 075        71 177     :    189,28   :    59,73   :    2 096   281:  1 264       947  : 3  361 228
                           UK      36,8        95 370        10 809     :    247,69   :    70,55   :  23 622    195:      762     575  :24  384 7 70
                                                                   -                  :
                           IR
                           GR
                                   24,2         1 517                   :    340,74                        516  897:
                                                                                                                              -             516 897
                          CEE      44,0    : 386 643      : 177 791     :   169,62    :   67.98    : 65 584 787: 12 086 902 : 77 671                689
Sëcord                  ' ~D"    " 30,3    _.   ç^JJJg        2™3T9         170.86        68,34        1 614 141          160 253        1 774     394
                             F     30,1             1 bO          75        225,21        17 ,26            33 782                432          34  213
                             B     40,4             188       1 297         213,14        85,46             40 071        110 841           150    913
                          CEE      31,1         9 788         3 671         172,46         73,97       1 687 994          271 526        1 959     520
Vlklng                     UK
                          CEE      32 ,0            122                     204^86                          24 993                             24 993
Sfeoman                    UK
                          CEE_      8_j, 0      1 303           302         266,42        90,13            347  139         27 219          374 358
Zenith                     UK
                          CEE      15.8             442         322         298,50        76,91           131 937           24     765^     156    702
 ---pagebreak---      <WP 0216S)                                                                                            -   7 -
                            1               2               3          4     :     5         6      :          7
           1982          TP/ha            NP/ha          NP/ha       PP/ha        TP        PP      :  Production
                         1982             1982           1981        1982      ECU/ha  : ECU/ha     :   ( 5 0 kg)
                                        (X   0.40)     (X   0.65)  (X  1.00)    1982     1982 ( 1 ) :       1982
 - autres         D
                  F
                  Β           0,1             -               -          0,1 :  2 154  : 2 1524                   3
                 UK           4,4             -               -          4,4       777       777                 17
                 IR
                 GR
                CEE           4.5             _                          4.5       819       819                 20
AUTRES            D           3,9             1,4           29,0      347 ,0    4 550     4 701     :       11 799
                  F           5,7             -               -          5,7    5 992     5 992                 175
                  Β        36,9               -               -        36,9     4 097     4 097     :        1 488
                 UK       256,2            175,7            70,2       10,3     2 183     4 432              2 508
                 IR           -               -               -          —           _         _                  _
                 GR
                CEE       688,8            189,7            99,2      399,9     3 657     4 663            15 970
GRAND TOTAL       D   19  985,0         1  158,0       1  570,0   17  257,0     5  219    5         :     844
                                                                                             505                326
                  F       750,4               2.5             7,5     740,4     4  893    4  920           34   692
                  Β       859,5             27 ,0           25 ,8     806,7     5  117    5  272           40   406
                 UK    5 870,9             354,0          386,6    5 130,5      7  797    8  288         205    747
                 IR         74,9              1.1             -        73,8     7  916    7  986             1  /55
                 GR
                CEE . 27   540,7        1  542,6       1  990,0   24  008,1     5 764     6 125       1  126 926
ι• •
                    :           Grèc<ì 25  h a = 57() Z t r .
i
 ---pagebreak---   <WP 0216S)
                                                                                                                                  8
—^——
                           8              9               10    :         11        :   12     :     13             14     :     15     :
            1982       Rendent.               Production        :               P R I X                 RETURN/GESAMTERLÖS (ECU)        :
                      50 kg/ha    " c o n t r a t " : "spot"    : " c o n t r a t " : "spot"   : "contrat" :      spot"    :  Total     :
                        (7:1)       (50 k )   K         (50 k )
                                                              K    ECU/50 k«t : ECU/50 kK : (9 T I l i : (10 x 12) : (13 + 14)          :
- autres           D
                   17
                   B     24,2                 —               3                         88,85                          267 «         267:
                  UK       3,9              17                -       201,19             -              3 420                      3 420:
                  IR
                  GR
                 CEE       4,4              17                3       201,19         :   89,00          3  420         267         3 689:
AUTRES             D     30,3         9 450          :    2 349  :     170,86        :   68,34  :  1 614   141     160 253 :  1 774  394:
                   F     30,1   :          150               25  :     225,21        :   17,26         33  782         432        34 213:
                   B     40,3             188        :   1 300   :     213,14        :   85,47         40  071     111 108      151  180:
                  UK       9,8        1 884                 624       269,37         :   83,17        507  493      51 898      559  391:
                  IR       -    :              -              -  :                   :    _                          _
                  GR
                 CEE     23,2       11 672               4 298   :     188,10        :   75,31  :  2 195 487       323 691 :  2 519 178:
GRAND TOTAL        D     42,2     555     746          288  S80  :     153,77        :   64,85  : 85 549 295 : 18 748 197 :104  297  492:
                   F     46,2       16    990           17  702       155,48         :   58,18  : 2 641 761 : 1 029 920 : 3     671  680:
                   B     47,0       12    956           27  450       195,11         :   65,78  : 2 527 743 : 1 809 992 : 4     397  736:
                  UK     35,0     175     684           30  063       248,81            68,69   : 43 711 936 : 2 065 027 : 45   7 76  963:
                  IR     23,4         1   755                 -       337,85         :                592 928        —          592  928:
                  GR
                 CEE     40,9 .   763 131              363 795        176,93         :   65,18  :135 023 663 : 23 713 136 :158 736 799:
 ---pagebreak---             GR.l'    HORLD H0P8 AREA
0
9
0.
H
       S0URCE = EC C 0 i l M I S S 1 0 H / 1 H E
   1 9 8 3 : E S T I M A T E IHB MARCH 1983
 ---pagebreak--- m  t < PISCENT ANNUAL VARIATION IN ARES
       P E R C E N T A G E CHANGE I N AREA
               OUER P R E V I O U S YEAR
                       :
           SOURCE EEC COHMISSION
                                            8
  GR,3< HQRLD mZP, BY COUNTRY
                  F
                               R    BRD  HH       13'-;
                               B    UKHH          10*
                               D j^^jJEJ -    m   F"'
                               19S    9
                                         1
      HQRLO AREA BY COUNTRY 1SS£
                               A B R U HA       21'4
                               B UKHA             6>;
                               C US_HA          1S 3i
                                 ]
                               E fê&i&\^m 43X
                               1982
       SOURCE      :
                       E C COMMISSION/ IHB
 ---pagebreak--- EURCOM      UL I N  1•     III  a          SI?IF 1 i i M i i  i s i|£Î JSL  %c i N I S U
VI-E-3
PR. 4   20 FEB 83
            DEMAND 8 STOCK     ESTIMATES : v. TAB. 3     (world)
          finilRr.FQ:              Ff; m M M T                   TflN i ; n F p i H n %
  WORLD S T O C K                  E S T I M A T E S . US S T O C K - USDA
                         :
      n u o ! uuK                rKurcooL               UHHL,      U       H h c \ i u N o
 ---pagebreak---  GR.5< WORLD HOPS PRODUCTION I DEMAND
FA
                          :
      DEMAND E S T TAB. 3 , 12 - B f t S i y
A U T O - P E G R E S S I U E 4YR MOUING AVERAGE ON
      WORLD PROD S I N C E 1 9 5 0 / B E E R M-'HL
  GR ZP. WORLD I E E C E S T I HINTED HOP R A T E
              EC COM U I - E - 3 E S T I M A T E S
               ( S E E T A B S . 3/4 & 1 2 / 1 3 )
 POLYNOMIAL A U T O R E G R E S S I U E MOUING A U G E i
  GR 6- HQRLD A L P H A PROD 1 BEffAHO E S T 8
                               :
DEMAND E S T I M A T E S         A - EURCOM ( T A B 7 , L 9 >
                                 B- EARTH REPORTS
  <A = GM-'HL HOPS X AUGE ALPHA 5.395J)
 ---pagebreak--- GR 7  MORL   Ufjp    BfWPfjlSYfl i iTl* p
 ROUNDED TO N E A R E S T 1 0 0 0 ZTR (= 5 0 MT)
     TOTAL E X P O R T S OF HOPS i t PRODUCTS
 CONUERTED TO HOP E Q U I V A L E N T ( E C E X T R A )
 ---pagebreak--- EURCOM
VI-E-3
                                 cl K 1=1 EL U i El L s h  i™= i r ï H itJ
GR. 8  20 FEB 83
             EMIs                                         il
                             EC COMMISSION
          ma      c =*= asm*
          jUyKwC<-       5
                                                                    USDA/HAC
 ---pagebreak---     C
      * 9'_ EC HDP           mEM&E HOP PR ICES
P R I X EN MONNAIE CONSTANTE                  (PRIX 82)
  I N F L A T I O H S K O R R I G I E R T AUF 8 2 E R WERT
 GR S i     1
               •1Q J^Iftgi-PglgPJ AW                  PgFL^TE 0
                                           :
    P R I X MONΝ. C O N S T A N T E C H A N G E M E N T S U R
 ANNEE P R E C E D E N T E EEN • · : + / - ; I H F L A T I O H S ­
                                         :
    KORR I G I E R T E P R E I S E N              JAEHRLICH
 ---pagebreak--- EURCOM
       ùyyi|ûi         1^ jpj sij[ ^ jgf
VI-E-3
6R.10: 20 FEB 83
          P E R C E N T A G E CHANGE OUER PREUIOUS         YEAR
            POURCENTAGE DE M A R I A T ION ANNUELLE
                  J A E H R L I C H E AENDERUHG IN U . H .
 ---pagebreak--- GR 11' E E C RETURHB/EiLQÊSE EHG
 ESTABLISHED        AREAS/ALTFLAECHE
 S U P E R F . EH P L E I N E PRODUCTION
 ---pagebreak--- GR 12            B
                   Si =5°^   Sp^3
                                  jjjf'^j3| || || ^fc^f^ g^''^ /D'j3^
V. CHANCE OMER P R E U I O U S VE AR ••••'PROZENT
AENDERUNG UEBER U 0 R J A H R / P 0 U R C E N T A G E
    V A R I A T I O N SUR ANNEE P R E C E D E N T E
 ---pagebreak---                        FINANCIAL                                 STATEMENT
                                                                                                                            D m      1
 1. B U D G E T    HEAD1NG :             Art.           181     (HOp)                                                       APPROBATIONS            198S           6 Mio    ECU
 2.   Tint       i    P r o p o s a l f o r a C o u n c i l r e g u l a t i o n f i x i n g t h e amount o f t h e a i d t o
                      p r o d u c e r s f o r t h e 1982 h a r v e s t i n t h e hop s e c t o r .
 j.    LEGAL     BASIS      :        A r t i c l e 12 o f R.1696/71 o f t h e C o u n c i l .
 A.    AIMS     OF P R O J E C T I           F i x i n g o f t h e a i d f o r t h e 1982 h a r v e s t t o hop p r o d u c e r s
                                             i n o r d e r t o g u a r a n t e e a n e q u i t a b l e i n c o m e l e v e l . The average
                                               r e t u r n d e c l i n e d i n 1982 making i t n e c e s s a r y t o i n c r e a s e t h e
                                              the amounts o f a i d f o r t h e v a r i e t y groups " a r o m a t i c " and
                                              "others".
 S.    FINANCIAL         IMPLICATIONS                                   PEIIOD Or 1 2 MONTMJ           CURRENT M N M C I A L        VEAR    FOLLOWING     FINANCIAL « A »
 5.0     EXPtN0ITU«E
        - C H » « C ( 0 TO T H E tC B U D G E T
             X *& I M W S / I N T E R V E N T I O N S )                     8,5          M1o ECU          8,5     M l o ECU
                                                                                                                                                          p.m.      (1)
        -    own « E S O U H C E S or       THE EC
              UEVUS/CUSÎOHS               PUT1ES)
        -     NATIONAL
                                                                                                                                                       1
  5.0.1      ESTIMATED         EXPENDITURE                                                   only concerns              t i e 198.3 budget
  5.1.1      ESTIMATED         RECEIPTS
  5.2   "ETMOO Of C A L C U L A T I O H
          Groups                                          Area (ha)                            Aid level per ha                                T o t a l M i o ECU
          Aromatiques                                       14.036                                   350   ECU                                         4.91
          Amères                                            12.815                                   200   ECU                                         2.56
           Autres                                                689                                 350    ECU                                        0.24
           Total                                            27.540                                                                                     7.7f (A)
                                                                                                                                            l .e.      8.5 ( B )
  6.0    CAN THE P R O J E C T BE FINANCED                  FROM A P P R O B I A T I O N S ENTERED I N T H E R E L E V A N T C H A P T E R OF T H E C U R R E N T BUDGET 1
                                                                                                                                                                (2) YES/Mo
  M x x xmx *xœx mm                       rax         BKX *:iKiKKiXK8x K*X * x i u œ m x s x m x x i x w s n w m x x i w x î n œ
                                                                                                                                                                         X88X
  6.2     I S A S U P P L E M E N T A R Y BUDGET B E N E C E S S A R Y Ì
                                                                                                                                                                   (2) "NO
                                                                                                                                                                        >H*K8
                               <
  OBSERVATIONS           i T h e a p p l i c a t i o n f o r a i d must b e l o d g e d w i t h i n 5 m o n t h s o f t h e
    p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s Regulation i n the OJ:                                            I t may b e e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e w h o l e
    amount o f t h e a i d w i l l b e p a i d o u t d u r i n g t h e c o u r s e o f 1 9 8 3 .
(2) I t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e e x p e c t e d s h o r t f a l l i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t i o n f o r A r t i c l e 181
          w i l l be met o u t o f t h e t o t a l furyis f o r Chapter 18 (56 Mio ECU). I f t h i s were
         not s o , t h e n e c e s s a r y a d j u s t m e n t s w i l l be p r o p o s e d by t h e Commission i n t h e
          1983 s u p p l e m e n t a r y b u d g e t .