CELEX: 51987PC0502
Language: en
Date: 1987-10-26
Title: PROPOSAL FOR A COUNCIL DECISION concerning Community action in the field of forecasting and assessment in science and technology (FAST) (submitted by the Commission)

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (87) 502
Vol. 1987/0254
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 ---pagebreak--- COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
    VERSION PROVISOIRE                                COM(87 ) 502 final
                                                      Brussels , 26 October 1987
                      PROPOSAL FOR A COUNCIL DECISION
        concerning Community action in the field of forecasting
                and assessment in science and technology
                                    ( FAST )
                     . V i *■ I
                     (submitted by the Commission )
                  \ (submitted
           / /
                               <i
                 '4^--.             Щ
                       V *   'V . /
C0MC87 ) 502 final
 ---pagebreak---                                 EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
          The present communication and the proposal for decision in the
          Annex concern the continuation of FAST activities .       FAST is the
          research programme for forecasting of long term changes in the
          field of science and technology and assessment of their
          implications and consequences for the future development of the
          Member States .         The programme aims to contribute to the
          definition of priorities for the Community 's RTD    policy .
          The FAST programme was approved in 1978 for an experimental phase
          of five years ( 1978-1983 ).      As the results of this phase were
          considered positive and worthwhile , a second FASJ programme was
          agreed in July 1983 .       The second programme will come to an end
          on 31st December , 1987 .
 I       FORECASTING OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF FAST
 1.     The Purpose of Forecasting
        The essential role of forecasting is to examine the possible and
        probable evolution of science and technology and study its
        implications and consequences for the socio-economic development
        of a particular country , region .... In this respect forecasting is
        an indispensable tool in the elaboration of any science and
        technological policy .
2.      The Achievements of the FAST Programme
        FAST I ( 1978-1983 ) was the originator of the preparatory work
        which gave rise to the ESPRIT programme .       It also contributed to
        the elaboration of a European policy on biotechnology and to the
        creation of CUBE ( Concertat ion Unit for Biotechnology in Europe ).
        For its part ,. FAST II not only contributed to the identification
        and definition      of  certain  research activities  included   in  the
        second " Framework Programme for Scientific and Technological
        Activities of the Community ", but its achievements also resulted
        in :
        .    the assessment of the importance of the growth in s ervices and
             " immaterial " technologies during the next 15-20 years ,    and an
             understanding of why success in " Europe of the Services " is so
             important and represents a challenge to European innovation and
             the economic policy ;
1
    RTD :    Research and Technological Development
 ---pagebreak---                                              -2-
             .  the   alerting   of   researchers ,    industrialists     and   public
        - ■     officials to the fact that better man-machine communication in
                complex systems    will in the future be one of the central
                challenges   at    the    heart   of   technological     development 7
                Henceforth errors in this field will be of major consequence to
                the increasing vulnerability of the systems present in our
                society ;
             .  The identification of the convergence and integration of
                technologies as one of the major sources of future turbulence
                in the productive system ( in 10-15 years ).       As a result , the •
               mastering of these phenomena will               condition Europe 's
                industrial competitiveness in the long term ;
   Ο Ί
            .   The realisation by public and private decision makers that an
               effective long term science and technology policy cannot be
 • ! ;■        governed solely by the objective of improving the supply of
        -e     technology , but that European competitiveness must also take
               into account the process of diffusion and the capacity to
               invent new uses for technology which respond to a real social
               need .
           In its role as a catalyst for new initiatives , FAST has had an
           impact within the Member States both on public authorities , and in
          academic and industrial circles . The following can be mentioned :
           .   the national research programme " in support of the FAST
               programme " set up in Belgium to look into the socio-economic
               consequences of scientific and technological development .
           .   the promotion of close cooperation in the field of cognitive
               sciences   between   the  most   renowned  research   centres   in  the
               European Community .
           .   the role played by the FAST network covering the 12 countries
               of the Community and organised by the research centre of an
               industrial federation     in the elaboration of the Commission 's
               " Forestry Action Programme ".
          .    The promotion of new forecasting and assessment activities in
               science and technology on a national ( governmental and /or
               parliamentary ) and regional level ( see below )).
II        FAST ACTIVITIES : A NEW DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE
          The Commission recognises the importance of the results of the
          FAST programme .      It also remains convinced of the necessity for a
          continuous observation of scientific and technological change , of
         a long term forecasting analysis of the possibilities and
          challenges for Europe together with an accurate assessment of the
          social impact        of the development and diffusion of new
         technologies . It has therefore included long term forecasting and
         assessment of science and technology ( FAST ) amongst the priorities
         of the Framework Programme for Scientific and Technological
         Activities of the European Community .               Furthermore , during
         discussions related to the " Framework Programme ", several Member
 ---pagebreak---                                         -3-
    States explicitly attached high priority to the FAST activities ,
    which were considered an essential element in the planning process
    of the Community research programme .
    However , the Commission deems it necessary to modify the work and
    mode of operation of FAST to take into account :
    a ) changes which have come about within the field of operation of
        FAST at the level of the European Community and within the
        Member States i.e. , the existence of new Community research
        programmes such as BRITE , EURAM , ESPRIT , RACE , NON-NUCLEAR
        ENERGY , and activities such as CUBE , MEDIA , COMMETT ; equally ,
        one should mention the creation by the European Parliament of
        STOA ( Scientific and Technological Options Assessment ),
        together with the setting up in several Member States of new
        activities or institutions for forecasting and assessment in
        science and technology , such as NOTA in the Netherlands ( 1986 ),
        the Teknologinaevnet in Denmark ( 1986 ),                   the National
        Forecasting and Assessement Agency in Spain ( 1987 ),                   the
        Programme for Information and Communication Technologies ( PICT )
        in     the    U.K.      ( 1986 ),      the     " Sozialwissenschaftliche
        Techni kforschung " activity of the BMFT in the Federal Republic
        of Germany ( 1986 );
     b ) the new responsibilities and Community tasks ratified by the
         Single Act . This
         - has determined that Community actions in the field of
           research and technological development be included in a
           " pluriannual framework programme ".            Consequently , FAST 's
           activities now have a definite " client ", the " Framework
           Programme ",    and their mandate         is clearly      defined :   to
           contribute to     the    periodic     revision     of  the   " Framework
           Programme ";
         - has fixed 1992 as the         date for    the establishment       of the
           " internal market ".    This calls for FAST to pay still greater
           attention    to the effects of the " internal market " on the
           long term development of science and technology beyond 1992 ;
         - has reaffirmed the objective of stimulating greater economic
           and social cohesion in the Community , particularly through
           lessening the gap between the various regions and the
           underdevelopment of the least favoured areas . In accordance
           with this objective ,         it seems appropriate that FAST 's
           activities should also analyse long term scientific and
           technological trends from the angle of their input to
           economic and social cohesion in the Community ;
     c ) new requirements to which forecasting and assessment ^f
         science and technology must         respond in the years to come .
The   notion   of  assessment    in  the    context   of    FAST  should    not  be
confused with the notion of assessment of research programmes or R&D .
The meaning of assessment in the FAST context , as it is understood in
the term " Technology Assessment ", has as its objective the study of
the short and long term implications and consequences of scientific
and technological developments on a sectoral or global level for
research , industry , the economy , the environment and society in general .
 ---pagebreak---          Particularly necessary is the development of scientific tools
         to provide decision makers with an adequate analysis and
         understanding of complex systems .
Ill  THE NEW FAST : INSPIRING PRINCIPLES
     Two major principles should inspire the modification of the FAST
     activities , the formal operation of which will commence in 1988,
     taking into account the results of an evaluation of the programme
    which is presently being carried out by a group of independent
    experts .   Their report will be ready end December 1987 .
     First principle : a greater integration of the FAST activities
     into the different stages of the planning of the Community
    research programme .
    To date , FAST’s analyses , focused on the long term , have been at
    a level removed from the process of defining the priorities of
    the Common R&D Programme .     Following the signing of the Single
    Act and the approval of the Framework Programme , FAST activities
    must also include as part of their function the forecasting and
    assessment analysis of economic and social impacts integrated
    into the different stages       of the planning of the Community
    research programme .
    This principle implies two practical innovations :
    I first , the need for flexibility in the research activities and
       methods of action of FAST in order that it responds efficiently
       to the different requirements of the Commission .       From this
       follows the demand for executing short term research studies in
       line with the requirements which emerge during the execution of
       the Framework Programme or from other demands expressed by the
       Commission .  It also follows that it is impossible to define in
       advance the entire range of research topics for the entire
       period of the new FAST .       It  is nevertheless necessary to
       identify a few key themes of major interest and of a global
       nature to which the Commission wishes to pay particular
       attention by stimulating research studies over 2-3 years .
       These studies are indispensable because , through their focus on
       key issues , they will give the necessary macroscopic and global
       overview of the long term changes in science and technology ;
    ■ Secondly ,    greater   coordination   and  integration    of  the
       cross-discipCinary ,  multisectorial activities of FAST and the
      activities of the other DsG .    As already noted , these have now
       incorporated dimensions of forecasting changes of strategic
       importance .
 ---pagebreak---                                        -5-
        It   is  clear   that   the  FAST activities ,     as   a  tool   for  the
        planning of the Community research programme , are of concern
        not only to DGXII - JCR , but are also of direct interest to
        DGXIII and DGIII ( particularly in view of the completion of the
        Internal Market in 1992 ). It is also clear that , to the extent
        that FAST research stimulates the awareness of the scientific
        and technological dimension in other Community policies , and
        vice-versa , FAST 's work and results are of interest and direct
        concern to the other Commission services .          FAST research must
        therefore take into account the work carried out by the other
        services in order to be better integrated               and   to   respond
        effectively to their needs and requests .
        Hence the opportunity and reasons exist for setting up a
        " Groupe Interservices de la Prospective " ( GIP ).        GIP will have
        the task of participating in the orientation of FAST
        acitivities and ensuring that they are followed up and
        valorised by the Commission services directly concerned .               It
        will also serve to enhance the diffusion and valorisation of
        long term analyses and assessments            realised^ by the other
        services in their specific areas of competence .
     Second principle :       reinforce links between FAST type activities
     at the national level and the Community FAST .
     The FAST networks ^ should be reinforced in their role as tools
     for the promotion of intra-European cooperation and for
     integration between national and Community activities in the
     field of science and technology forecasting and socio-economic
     assessment of technology .
     This role is the subject of continued demands from researchers ,
    national and local agents involved in science and technology
    policies and industrialists , regarding matters which concern , for
    example :
    o the availability at Community level of a facility allowing the
       exchange of information and experience in the development and
       utilisation of science and technology indicators , the aim of
       which is to take into account             the   different     aspects   and
       evolution of S & T in Europe .
       These indicators should encourage the reflection and analysis
       by the different actors within the science and technology field
       and serve as bases for discussion and negotiation between the
       actors , allowing for better clarification of the challenges and
       decisions     involved .     Such   is  the   role  of    the   indicators
       developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation .
There exists     an official    network of    12 national     FAST units .      In
addition , there are multiple ad hoc research networks ( cognitive
sciences , services , forestry , technologies of light , food and health ,
EURETA ..).       The development of these cooperative European networks
represents another important accomplishment of the FAST programme' 1
 ---pagebreak---                                      -6-
         The availability of these indicators is both important and
        useful for European decision makers .     Thus , most of the Member
        countries have made efforts      in this direction on a national
         level and within the framework of international organisations
         ( notably the OECD ), particularly in comparing the indicators
        available .
        It is inconceivable and unrealistic for one organisation to
        centralise the development o? these European indicators .        It
        therefore follows that it is out of the question for FAST to
        conceive and formulate Community indicators .        The needs made
        most apparent by the Member States are : the stimulation of
        contacts , exchanges of information and experience ; the study of
        the means available to improve the production of these
        indicators ;     the development of new indicators ;        and the
        utilisation of the existing tools for analyses at Community
        level .    FAST 's precise task will be to create an environment ,
        by means of its network activities , favouring the establishment
       of closer links at a European level between the manufacturers
        ( researchers ) and users ( public authorities , private sector ..)
       of these indicators .      To this end , FAST will also rely on the
       new " scientific monitoring" unit created within D6 XII and the
       work of this nature carried out by the JCR concerning
       technological strategic analyses , together with the activities
       of CODEST .
     o Theoretical development and the promotion of exchange of
       experiences in matters of methodology ,            organisation and
       uti lisation of long term research and " Technology Assessment "
        in Community countries .
       Methodological problems , both at a theoretical and practical
        level , are becoming increasingly accentuated . This is because
       of the complexity of the phenomena studied , the stochastic
       character of their dynamics and the consequent uncertainties of
       the actors involved .      We are far removed from the certainties
       implied by the forecasting and assessment experts of the 60s
       and 70ss.'  One of the contributions of FAST will be to stimulate
       advances in methodology through seminars , meetings between
       researchers and users , and the production of ad hoc " state of
       the art " methodological reports . The results obtained could be
       shared with developed countries , such as the U.S. and Japan ,
       and with Latin American , African and Asian countries , wh^ch are
       interested in carrying out work similar to that of FAST .         It
       will be done in close cooperation with the relevant
       Directorate's of DGXII and DGI .
This is the case notably in five Latin American countries ( Argentina ,
Brazil , Columbia , Mexico and Venezuela ) which have recently launched
a joint forecasting and assessment programme on science and
technology for Latin America with explicit reference to the Community
FAST programme .      It is called the Projecto Lat ino-Amer i cano de Alta
Technologi a Ano 2000 .
 ---pagebreak---                                   -7-
       To be effective , it is essential that the organisation and
       realisation of the FAST networks be based , more extensively
       than in the past , on national FAST units and decentralised
       modes of operation .       This would involve a more active
       participation by the Member States in the financing , operation
       and valorisation of FAST activities .
IV  FUNCTIONS OF THE NEW FAST ( CONTENT AND APPROACH )
    The actions of the new FAST will       respond to three principal
    functions :
   - a " Forecasting " function ;
   - an " Assessment " function ;
   - a " Monitoring " function .
   While these functions are interrelated and difficult to define in
    isolation ( particularly on an operational level ),1' the following
   characteristics of each function can be outlined .
   The Forecasting function consists of presenting hypotheses and
   shedding light on the long term opportunities , problems and
   challenges to Europe of the major scientific , technological ,
   social and economic mutations .     It will focus on a number of key
   areas of a global nature such as :
   I The long term implications for European industry and its
      competitivity in the context of the internationalisation of the
      economy and the increasing convergence and interaction between
      different technologies ( notably : materials , microelectronics ,
      advanced production technologies , and light technologies ). The
      integration between agriculture , the chemical industry and
      energy , which was already studied in FAST II , should be further
      investigated in depth ;
   D The implications and long term consequences for the smaller
      countries of the Community ( in terms of population , market
      size ,   etc .) of the development and diffusion of new
      technologies ;
   I The long term implications of developments in human biology ;
   H The long term implications of scientific and technological
      development in transport , energy , communication etc . for the
      Community 's urban areas as we enter the XXIst century .
   The Technology Assessment Function will involve three types of
   analyses :
   - factual analyses concerning the prospects of change for a
      technology , sector or scientific field , the analysis of an
      important report or a major event ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        -8-
       - anticipation and impact analyses into the technological ,
          economic and social implications of likely developments in a
          particular field ,   family of technologies or at the interface
          between a number of different technologies and sectors ;
       - strategic analyses of the European situation ( strengths and
         weaknesses , interregional comparisons within the Community ,
          international comparisons ) in order to contribute to the
         coordination of national research policies ( COPOL activity ) and
         to complement the work of the JCR .
12 .  The " Monitoring " function will include analyses of scientific        and
      technological indicators ,         methodology of forecasting          and
      technology assessment ,         and the institutionalisation           and
      utilisation of long term analyses ,                 together with      the
      identification of new trends related to problems investigated          and
      methods used .    Particular attention will be paid to :
      - new methods of studying complex systems ;
      - improving methods of formulating and using scenarios ;
      - the analysis of the relevance and usefulness of public opinion
         surveys concerning science and technology ;
      - relations     between    researchers     and    users   for   a   better
         realisation of the results           of    long   term   research   and
         ''Technology Assessment ".
      The " monitoring" function will be strictly complementary to the
      " scientific monitoring" activity undertaken by DGXII-JCR and by
     other Commission Services ( notably within OsG VI , XII , XIII ) and
     to the Stimulation Programme and CODEST . It will equally rely on
     the various " scanning " and "monitoring " activities of the Member
     States .
     To a greater extent than in the past , the work of the new FAST
     will incorporate on a world scale the dynamics of production ,
     consumption and diffusion of science and technology ,                 their
     implications for the Common RTD policy and Europe 's long term
     strategies for scientific and technological cooperation with
     other developed countries and the Third World countries .
     To successfully fulfil its objectives , FAST will draw on its own
     internal resources ,       on highly qualified visiting scientists
     seconded from the - Member States , external expertise ( contracts )
     and European networks of researchers .           Use will also be made of
     " panel groups " and " workshops ", which have given good results in
     other forecasting and technology assessment exercises .
     Finally ,    particular attention ( rendered possible by         the human
     and financial
     diffusion         resources made
                 and valorisation          available
                                    of results   3 . ) will be paid to the
 It is interesting to note in this context that the forecasting and
 technology assessment programme SOTECH of Rhenanie-Westphalia , FRG ,
 has just allocated 3 million DM solely for diffusing the results of
 the programme over a period from 1985-1988 .
 ---pagebreak---                                   -9-
V  OPERATION OF THE NEW FAST : THE PROPOSAL
   In the light of the above ,           it is proposed that the FAST
   activities continue , conforming to the priorities defined by the
   " Framework Programme ",     for a further period of 5 years
   ( 1988-1992 ).    The   FAST   activities    are  considered a  basic
   instrument     in the   formulation     of   the   Community research
   programme .
   Bearing in mind the need for flexibility and in order to define
   the precise content of the major research themes , together with
   the testing and instigation of the modifications deemed necessary
  on the basis of the principles given above , it is proposed to
  proceed on a step by step basis .
   The first year must allow for :
  - the completion of the diffusion and analysis of the FAST II
      results in respect of their utilisation within the services of
      the Commission and the Member States .
  - the testing of the feasibility of proposals submitted by the
      independent evaluation group of FAST which will report at the
      end of December 1987 , as well as the new methods of operation
      already identified and retained by the Commission .
  - the definition of the precise content of the key research
      issues mentioned above for the years 1989-1992 ,          and the
     detailed programme of further FAST studies for 1989-1990 .
  The Commission will define the            detailed programme of FAST
  activities for 1991-1992 in 1990 ,        in the light of the previous
  years' experience .
  For this purpose ,   the Commission will be assisted by the General
  Advisory Committee ( GAC ),    the creation of which is mentioned in
  Article 4 of the Decision .
                                       *
                                     *   *
                                       *
  The Council is invited to approve the Decision contained herein
  for a new FAST programme .
 ---pagebreak---                                      1
                              FINANCIAL ANNEX
1. Allocation of Budget
   7300   Forecasting and assessment in the field of          science and
          technology ( FAST )
2. Legal Bas i s
   Article 130 Q , § 2 .
3. Description of Research Activities
   The objective of the FAST activities is to contribute to the
   identification and definition of new directions and priorities to
   be taken for the research policy and technological development of
   the European Community .      To this end , FAST will analyse the long
   term scientific and technological changes and study their
   implications and consequences for the socio-economic development
   of the Member countries .
   In order to carry out its function , FAST will , amongst other
   factors , promote intra-Community cooperation between centres and
   research units     in the   Member States   involved in the field of
   forecasting and assessment of science and technology ,       by setting
   up European ad hoc research networks .
   In order to ensure the best possible integration of FAST
   activities at the various stages of the planning of the Community
   research programme , FAST 's work will be developed and executed in
   response to requests expressed by the Commission and the Member
   States as needs emerge during the execution of the " Framework
   Programme ".     It is not therefore possible to define in advance
   the entire    list of  research themes for the overall duration of
   the new FAST .    It is thus necessary to proceed step by step .
   The work programme of the first year ( 1988 ) is clearly defined .
   Also defined are the possible key research themes for the years
   1989 - 1992 .
   During the first year , the precise content of the work programme
   for the years 1989 - 1990 will be elaborated , always respecting
   the principle of flexibility .
   In 1990 , the work programme for the years 1991 and 1992 will be
   finalised in the light of the previous years' experience .
   The first year ( 1988 ) will therefore comprise three lines of
   action :
   I     The diffusion and valorisation of the        results of   FAST II
        within the Commission ,        other  Community institutions and
        Member States ,
 ---pagebreak---                                            2
    II     The testing and validation of new methods of effecting the
           forecasting and assessment of science and technology within
           the Commission with a view to increasing their value and
           operational usefulness ,
    III    The setting up of a certain number of research activities
           ( two exercises of technological assessment ; network studies
           on science and technology indicators ^ in the Community ,
           experimental phase of the network EURETA ,                a working group
           on methods of        forecasting and assessment           in   science and
           technology ) .
    As far as the activities of the following years ( 1989-1992 ) are
    concerned , they will revolve around :
    - pluriannual research activities based on a few key issues ;
    - short term research studies responding to the demands of the
       Commission and       other    Community    institutions       and   the  Member
       States .
4.  Justification
    The facility to provide the Commission with information and to
    shed light on the long term industrial , economic and social
    challenges brought about by scientific and technological change
    for the countries of the European Community is a necessary
    condition for the effective , coherent and pertinent development
    of the Community 's research programme in relation to other
    Community      policies ,     and   to   national    science      and   technology
    policies .
    The progress         which      can be realised at               a theoretical ,
    methodological        and operational          level    in      forecasting and
    assessment in science and technology is a distinct advantage in
    defining common strategies for the development and use of science
    and technology in the general interest of Europe .
5.  Financial Costs of Intervention Activities
    The total       cost   for   the   estimated     period     ( 1988-1992 )  is  ( in
    mi l lions of Ecus ) :
    - Community Budget                        14,0
    - Other Organisations
       at national level                       5,0           ( estimate )
                               Total          19,0
 EURETA :    European Network for Technology Assessment at a regional
             level
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 3 -
    The flow of expenditures rel evant to the Community budget is as
    follows ( in thousands of Ecus ).
    Commitments
                          1988     1989   1990     1991   1992     Total
    Personnel ( 1+9 )     1.060    1.100  1.200    1.240  1.300     5.900
    Network research
    and administrative
    costs ( 2+3 )           840      800    800      700    800     3.940
    Contracts ( 5 )         900      900    800      660    900     4.160
    TOTAL                 2.8002    2.800  2.800    2.600  3.000   14.000
    Payments
                          1988     1989   1990     1991   1992   1 993 ( + )  Total
    Personnel ( 1+9 )     1.060    1.100  1.200    1.240  1.300               5.900
    Network research
    and administrative
    costs ( 2+3 )           840      720    800      710    790      80       3.940
    Contracts ( 5 )         160      480    700      750    810    1.260      4.160
    TOTAL                 2.060    2.300   2.700    2.700  2.900   1.340     14.000
    ■ Methods of calculation
      a ) Personnel Costs ( cat . 1+9 )
           Personnel requirements for the first year have been estimated at :
 In the preliminary draft budget for 1988 ( APB ),    personnel costs as
at 1st January 1988 , together with related administrative costs are
charged to the budget of the old programme for a total amount of 1.2
million ECU . Following the adoption of the programme by the Council ,
the budgetary situation will be adjusted to conform to the new
decision .
 ---pagebreak---     6 ( six ) temporary agents          Grade A       ( scientific researchers );
    2 ( two ) temporary agents          Grade B ;
    4 ( four ) temporary agents -       Grade C.
    These    posts     have   already   been    requested    in   the  Commission 's
    proposed budget for 1988 .
    It should be noted that the personnel requirements for 1989-1992
    have been estimated at :
    8 ( eight ) temporary agents        -  Grade A ( scientific researchers );
    2 ( two ) temporary agents          -  Grade B ;
    5 ( five ) temporary agents         -  Grade C.
    ( the additional posts - 2 Grade As ,          1 Grade C - will be requested
    during the budgetary procedure for 1989 ).
    Under this heading is atso included the participation by the
    Commission to the expenses of associate researchers ( visiting
    fellows ) seconded by the Member States .             The number of associate
    researchers has been estimated at 25 man years for the period
    1988-1992 .
    Mission expenses ,        representation     costs and     possible occasional
    payments are covered .
    It   should    be    borne   in  mind   that    FAST 's  scientific   personnel
    ( central team + visiting fellows ) is composed of researchers who
    will themselves carry out research and not limit themselves solely
    to management / admi ni st rat i ve roles .
b ) Network Operation Expenses and Administration Costs ( cat . 2+3 )
    1 ) Network Expenses
        These refer in particular to research expenses ( meetings ,
        diffusion and valorisation of results , conferences , working
        seminars      and debates       in Brussels ,         concise   information
        documentation , ad hoc syntheses for the general public ( in
        several languages ) computer aided communications and video
        back-up , etc .) incurred in the direct organisation and direct
        animation by FAST of the network activities .
    2 ) Administrative and Technical Expenses
        These refer in particular to :
        B Management Committee meetings ( CEPEST ) and working groups ,
          expert meetings , publication and library costs , costs incurred
          in obtaining data bank information , etc .;
        Q Purchase ,       hire and maintenance          of   computer   equipment ,
          including necessary software .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 5 -
c ) Contract Expenses ( cat . 5 )
    These   refer  to   expenses   involved in carrying  out   technology
    assessment exercises , contributions demanded from certain research
    centres participating in various network activities , and in certain
    diffusion and valorisation activities of FAST II results .
    They also refer to expenses incurred for research contracts ;     for
    " scenario writing " scientific and technological monitoring , and
    other long term analyses ; contracts for students and " stagiai res "
    ( travel and training ); expert and auditing contracts ; and other
    operations .
■   Funding of Expenses
    The credits necessary to cover the Community contribution for the
    FAST activities must be included in the budgets for the years
    1988-1992 .
■   Method of Control
    ° administrative control by the Director General       for Financial
       Control in putting the budget into effect ;
    ° scientific control :
       - Advisory Management Committee ;
       - Groupe Interservice de Prospective .
    0 Verification of accounts by the Auditor of Accounts in conformity
       with the regulations of the Treaty .
 ---pagebreak---                                              1
                    PROPOSAL       FOR THE DECISION OF COUNCIL
                                       of .
         concerning Community action in the field of forecasting and
                        assessment in science and technology
                                           FAST
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,
Having regard to Article 130 Q § 2 of the constitutive Treaty of the
European Economic Community ,
                                                   1
having regard to the Commission proposal ,
                                                       2
in cooperation with the European Parliament ,
having
Commi ttee
            regard to the advice given by the Economic and Social
whereas the Commission aims at the promotion of a harmonious economic
and social development between the Member States in the context of
growing economic and commercial relations with other countries and
whereas      scientific       and    technological   changes  play     a role  of
increasing importance in             future economic and social development ;
whereas closer technological and scientific cooperation between
universities ,         research centres and enterprises within the Member
States , in hand with extra-Community cooperation ,                 is absolutely
necessary to safeguard a capacity for long term European strategies
in high technology ,              comparable to other world economic and
technological powers ;
whereas the increasingly complex and stochastic relations between
science and technology , on the one hand , and the phenomena of growing
integration between the different sciences and basic technologies , on
the other , call for continuous and vigilant monitoring ;
whereas the internationalisation of technologies and markets , in the
light of intense competition , increasing R & D costs , reduction in
the life cycle of products and great uncertainties on a regulatory
and monetary level ,            require efficient monitoring of research and
technology , particulary on an international and European level ;
1
  J .0 .
"J . 0 .
  Adv ice : J . 0 .        ( Application : J.O.        Amendment : J . 0 . )
 ---pagebreak--- whereas forecasting in science and technology based on European
cooperation p oves - in the context of the Single Act - indispensable
for formulating common " visions " and strategies with regard to the
 long term economic and social outcomes to be given to the development
and utilisation of new technologies ;
whereas in 1986 the European Parliament approved , on an experimental
basis , the setting up of an assessement body of scientific and
technological options ( STOA : . Scientific and Technological Options
Assessment ) ;
whereas   the  Economic  and  Social Committee has on      several occasions
emphasised the importance and usefulness it gives to forecasting and
assessment of the implications and socio-economic            consequences of
scientific and technological changes ;
whereas several important initiatives have been taken in most of the
Member States regarding the institutionalisation ,             either within
governmental bodies or at par l i amentary level , of activities for
forecasting and assessment in science and technology ;
whereas in the last few years other Commission services have
developed the means for strategic analysis of long term developments
in their fields of interest ,      including the impact of technological
change related thereto ;
whereas   the   promotion and   development   of   Community    networks    for
cooperation and research between organisations specialising in
forecasting and assessment of science and technology constitutes one
of the most significant attainments of the FAST activities to date ;
whereas the framework programme of Community action for research and
technological development ( 1987-1991 ) envisages the realisation of a
horizontal Community activity in forecasting and assessment of
science and technology ( encompassing all technological sectors and
fields of application , calling for a t ransdi sc i pi i nary approach );
whereas the work programme of such an action , in its function as a
tool for the planning of Community research , must be defined on a
flexible basis to adapt to the needs which emerge in the execution of
the " Framework Programme ";
whereas the    Scientific and   Technical Research Committee      ( CREST ) has
delivered its opinion on the Commission proposal ;
has decided as follows
                                  Article 1
A new Community action in the field of forecasting and assessment of
science and technology ( entitled FAST ),          defined in the Annex ,
following the FAST II research programme , will be adopted for a
period of 5 years , beginning 1st January , 1988 .
4J.O. C0M(86) 430 final ,   Brussels , 5th August , 1986
 ---pagebreak---                                     3
                                Artide 2
The credits necessary to cover the contribution of the Community in
the execution of the new FAST are estimated at 14,0 million Ecus over
5 years , including personnel costs ( 6A , 2B , 4C for 1988 and 8A , 2B ,
5C for the following years ) and the cost of researchers seconded to
FAST by the Member States to a maximum of 25 man years .             The
allocation of this amount is given in the Annex .
                                Article 3
The Commission guarantees the execution of the FAST activities .      It
will be assisted in its work by a General Advisory Committee ( GAC ) in
accordance with the resolutions laid down in Decision 84 / 338 Euratom ,
CECA , CEE . The GAC-FAST will be called the European Committee ^or the
Forecasting and Assessment of Science and Technology ( CEPEST ).
                                Article 4
The decision is published in the Official Journal of the European
Communities . It takes effect from the day of publication .
 Comité Europeén de la Prospective et de l' Evaluation Scientifique et
Technique .
 ---pagebreak---                                          4
                                     Annex
   Action of research in the field of forecasting and assessment in
                    Science and Technology ( New FAST )
1.  The   aim   of   the   FAST   activities    is    to  contribute   to  the
    identification and definition of new directions and priorites for
    a common policy for research and technological development in the
    European Community and the links with other Community policies .
    To this end FAST will analyse long term scientific and
    technological      changes    and    study     their    implications   for
    socio-economic development and the quality of life in the
    countries of the Community .
2.  The actions of the new FAST will            respond to three principal
    functions :
    - a " forecasting" function ,
    - an " assessment " function ,
    - a " monitoring " function .
    ■ The forecasting function will develop hypotheses and shed light
      on the long term opportunities , problems and challenges to
      Europe of scientific , technological , social and economic
      developments .     It will focus on a number of key problem areas
      of a global nature , such as .
      . the long term implications and consequences for European
        industry and its competitiveness in the context of the
        internationalisation of the economy ,             of the increasing
        convergence and interaction between different technologies
        ( notably : materials , microelectronics , advanced production
        technologies and light technologies ).                The integration
        between the agricultural ,         chemical and energy industries
        which was already studied in          FAST II    should be developed
        further ;
      . the implications and long term consequences for the smaller
        countries of the Community ( in terms of population , market
        size ,    etc .) of the development and diffusion of new
        technologies ;
      . the implications and long term consequences of developments
        in human biology ;
      . the long term implications and consequences of scientific and
        technological        development       in      transport ,     energy ,
        communications ,     etc . for the Community 's urban areas as we
        enter the XXIst century ;
    ■ The Technology Assessment function will comprise three types of
      analyses :
      . factual analyses concerning the prospects for a technology ,
        sector or scientific field , the analysis of a major event ;
 ---pagebreak---                                                  5
       . anticipation and impact analyses into the technological ,
         economic and social implications of likely developments in a
         particular field , family of technologies or at the interface
         between a number of different technologies and sectors ;
      . stra tegic analyses of the European position                 ( strengths and
         weaknesses ,         interregional comparisons with the Community ,
         international comparisons ).
   B The " Monitoring " function will include analyses on scientific
      and technological indicators , the methodology of forecasting and
      technology assessment and their institutionalisation and
      ut i l i sat ion .
II Mode of Operation
3. The preceding paragraphs have laid down the general framework -
   and the major guidelines - of the FAST activities in relation to
   which the work programme is defined .                Bearing in mind the nature
   of forecasting and assessment activities and the integrative
   function of FAST in the different stages of the planning process
   of Community research , the work programme has been defined on a
   flexible basis to correspond to the needs of the Commission and
   Member States             as they     emerge during      the execution of       the
   " Framework Programme ".
4. The work programme will be defined and put into effect by the
   Commission ,          in cooperation with CEPEST ,            according to the
   following arrangements .
5. For    the     first     year   ( 1988 )   three  lines of    action are    to be
   fol lowed :
   Line of Action I concerns activities of diffusion and analysis of
   the results of FAST II in view of their utilisation :
   a ) Within the Commission
        - organisation of internal seminars for the presentation and
           debate of the results and proposals of FAST by groups of
           Directorates General according to the subject , and also to
           CODEST ,       IRDAC and other consultative committees of the
           Commission ;
        - diffusion         of   short      information    flashes    on   the   most
           significant results .
   b ) In the Member States with the aid and active participation oi
        the Members of CEPEST :
        - organisation of seminars and working meetings in each Member
           State of the Community with specialised audiences ,                   ( for
           example those responsible for R & D , or industrialists in
           the European food system ) based on                    strategic and / or
           exploratory synthesis dossiers already                produced by FAST
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 6 -
          before December 1987 ; also to a larger public in the form of
          one-day conferences focused ,           for example ,      on the
          presentation of the second FAST final report ;
       - drafting and translating into Community languages of new
          short synthesis documents presenting principal messages
          issuing from FAST 's research ;
       - continuation of the publication of articles in specialised
          scientific reviews ;
       - publication of the results of FAST in bulletins , journals or
          reviews of national ministries responsible for research and
          scientific development policy .
   Line of Action II aims in particular at experimenting with and
   verifying :
   - the capacity of FAST to produce short term studies responding
      to demands expressed by the Commission ;
   - the function of the GIP ( Groupe Interservi ces de Prospective );
      and
   - conditions which     must be    met  in   order that   FAST 's work  can
      analyse problems at a world level more effectively than              in
      the past .
   Equally under this line of action will figure the experimentation
   and verification of propositions submitted by the evaluation
   group of FAST II and retained by the Commission in cooperation
   with CEPEST .
   Line    of  Action III    concerns   the   realisation  of   the  research
   activities themselves :
   a ) two assessment exercises on the long term implications and
       consequences of scientific and technological change ; the first
       would aim at developing an in-depth assessment of the impact
       of new technologies on land use within the perspective of a
       common European policy on land use ; the second would refer to
       the implications and consequences over the next 20-30 years of
       the development and diffusion of new technologies for the
       smaller countries of the Community ( in terms of population ,
       market size , etc .);
   b ) the development of two cooperative networks , one on science
       and technology indicators in the European Community ; the other
       on research methodologies for technology assessment and
       forecasting .
6. In conformity with § II . 3 above ,      during the course of the first
   year the Commission will define :
   - the precise content of the central             key  areas   of  research
      mentioned in § 1.2 for 1989-1992,
 ---pagebreak---                                   -7
   - the detailed programme of further FAST activities for the years
     1989-1990 .
7. The  Commission  will  define  the  detailed    programme  of   FAST
   activities for 1991-1992 in 1990 .
8. The structuring of FAST activities does not exclude the
   possibility of carrying out studies of short duration which
   correspond to the particular circumstances of the Commission .
9. The setting up of the FAST activities will involve the following
   elements :
   ° the development and reinforcement of the FAST " 12 + 1 " network ,
     comprising 12 national   FAST units    nominated   by the   Member
     States ;
   0 The association of research centres or teams in the Community
     countries specialised in the work of forecasting and assessment
     in science and technology for the realisation of the three
     lines of action mentioned above by , for example , setting up
     ad-hoc European cooperative networks ;
   0 The detachment to the FAST unit by Community and national
     institutions of high level scientific " visiting fellows " ( to a
     maximum of 5 men for 1988 ) each of whom will actively
     participate in the realisation of the activities described
     above .