CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: el
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: Σχέδιο ψηφίσματος του Συμβουλίου για το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και την Κοινότητα

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
 ---pagebreak--- Disclaimer
Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 concernant
l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique européenne et de
la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, p. 1) modifié en dernier
lieu par le règlement (UE) 2015/496 du Conseil du 17 mars 2015 (JO L79 du 25. 3.2015, p. 1), ce
dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents classifiés présents dans ce dossier
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conformément aux articles 26(3) et 59(2) de la décision (UE, Euratom) 2015/444 de la
Commission du 13 mars 2015 concernant les règles de sécurité aux fins de la protection des
informations classifiées de l'Union européenne.
In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning
the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic Community and the
European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as last amended by Council
Regulation (EU) 2015/496 of 17 March 2015 (OJ L 79, 27.3.2015, p. 1), this file is open to the
public. Where necessary, classified documents in this file have been declassified in conformity
with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation or are considered declassified in conformity with
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on the security rules for protecting EU classified information.
In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar
1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und
der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S. 1), zuletzt geändert durch die
Verordnung (EU) Nr. 2015/496 vom 17. März 2015 (ABI. L 79 vom 25.3.2015, S. 1), ist dieser Akt
der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in diesem Akt in
Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5 der genannten Verordnung freigegeben; beziehungsweise werden
sie auf Grundlage von Artikel 26(3) und 59(2) der Entscheidung der Kommission (EU, Euratom)
2015/444 vom      13.   März 2015     über die   Sicherheitsvorschriften für den Schutz von  EU-
Verschlusssachen als herabgestuft angesehen.
 ---pagebreak--- ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗ ΤΩΝ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΩΝ ΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΩΝ
                                            CΟΜ(88 ) 656 τελικό
                                           Βρυξέλλες , 14 Δεκεμβρίου 1988
         ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ ΠΡΟΣ ΤΟ ΣΥΜΒΟΥΛΙΟ
                            με θέμα
         " ΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ ΚΑΙ Η ΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΑ "
                              και
                             Σχέδιο
                     ΨΗΦΙΣΜΑ ΤΟΥ ΣΥΜΒΟΥΛΙΟΥ
       για το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και την Κοινότητα
                ( υποβληθείσα από την Επιτροπή )
 ---pagebreak--- Ανακοίνωση της Επιτροπής προς το Συμβούλιο
            με θέμα
      "ΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ
           ΚΑΙ Η ΚΟΙΝΟΤΗΤΑ "
 ---pagebreak---                                    ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΜΕΝΑ
                                                              Παράγραφο ι Σελ ( ία
ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ ΚΑΙ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ                                        Α-Γ        4-11
I.    ΕΙΣΑΓβΓΗ ΣΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΕΡΜΟΚΗΠΙΟΥ
      Τι e ( ναι εν ολίγοις το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου             1-2      12-13
      Αέρια θερμοκηπίου : πηγές εκπομπών και τάσεις της          3-10     13-20
      ατμοσφαιρικής συγκέντρωσης
      Ενδεχόμενες κλιματικές συνέπειες των αυξανόμενων
      συγκεντρώσεων αερίων θερμοκηπίου                           11-13    20-27
      Ενδεχόμενες επιπτώσεις των κλιματικών μεταβολών             14-21   27-32
II .  ΤΟ ΔΙΕΘΝΕΣ ΠΛΑΙΣΙΟ ΚΑΙ 01 ΠΡΟΟΠΤΙΚΕΣ
      Ε ιοαγωγή                                                  22        32-33
      Το παγκόσμιο συνέδριο για την"Μεταβαλλόμενη Ατμόσφαιρα"     23       33-38
      ( Τορόντο, 27-30 Ιουνίου 1988 )
      Μελλοντικές πιθανές εξελίξεις                               24-28    38-40
III .  ΕΠΙΣΚΟΠΗΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΠΙΘΑΝΗΣ ΔΡΑΣΗΣ .
      Ε ιοαγωγή                                                   29-31    40-41
      Ερευνητικές δραστηριότητες                                  32-36    42-44
      Προληπτική δράση                                            37-42    44-4 «
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 3 -
                                                             Παράγραφοι   Σελίδα
     Προγραμματισμένη προσαρμογή                                  43*45    48*49
     Συνεργασία με τις αναπτυσσόμενες χώρες                          46    49*50
IV . ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΤΗΣ ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ                                   47*58    51-54
ΠΑΡΑΡΤΗΜΑ
Το συνέδριο "νΐ^ΑΟΗ*·                                                   Α  56
(νΐϋ-ΑΟΗ-Αυστρία, 9-15 Οκτωβρίου 1985 )
Το συμπόσιο ΕΟΚ      "ΟΟ^ και άλλα αέρια θερμοκηπίου"                   Β  57
(Βρυξέλλες/ 3*5 Νοεμβρίου 1986 )
Τα συνέδρια πρακτικής εργασίας (ΜΟΚΚ$ΗΟΡ$ ) με θέμα                     Γ  58*60
" Διαμόρφωση πολιτικής για την αντιμετώπιση των
κλιματικών μεταβολών " ( νΐΙΛΑΟΗ * Αυστρία , 28 Σεπτεμβρίου*
2 Οκτωβρίου 1987 και ΒΕυ,ΑΟΙΟ - Ιταλία, 9*13 Νοεμβρίου 1987)
Η έκθεση της επιτροπής ΒΚϋΝ0ΤΙ_ΑΝ0                                    Δ    61
Το ψήφισμα του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου                                Ε    61
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 4 -
                           ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ ΚΑΙ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ
Α.      ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ
Α.1 .   Ε ισαγωγή
        Στις 19 Ιουλίου 1988 η Επιτροπή αποφάσισε να συστήσει διυπηρεσιακή
        ομάδα με στόχο να επεξεργασθεί μέχρι τα μέσα του Νοεμβρίου 1988
        ορισμένες προκαταρκτικές ιδέες για ενδεχόμενη κοινοτική δράση
        όσον αφορά το " Φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου".
        Στόχος του παρόντος εγγράφου , το οποίο βασίζεται στο έργο της ανωτέρω
        ομάδας , είναι η ανασκόπηση του ζητήματος αυτού και η υποβολή συμπερασμά¬
        των και συστάσεων για τις περαιτέρω ενεόγειες που πρέπει αμέσως να αρχίσουν ,
        για τη δράση που πρέπει να σναληφθεί επειγόντως και για τον πιθανό
        ρόλο της Ευρωπαϊκής Κοινότητας στη διεθνή συζήτηση σχετικά με το
        σύνθετο αυτό πρόβλημα .
Α.2 .   Το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου
Α.2.1 . Οι τρέχουσες κλιματικές συνθήκες στη γη διέπονται σε μεγάλο βαθμό από
        τη σύνθεση της ατμόσφαιρας .
        Οι υδρατμοί , το διοξείδιο του άνθρακος (Οί^), το μεθάνιο (ΟΗ^) το υπο-
        ξείδιο του αζώτου ^0), το όζον (03) και , πιο πρόσφατα, οι χλωριο-
        φθοριωμένοι υδρογονάνθρακες ( ΟΡΟ , απορροφώντας μέρος της υπέρυθρης
        ακτινοβολίας που εκπέμπεται από τη γη προς αντιστάθμιση της εισρέουσας
        ηλιακής ακτινοβολίας , αποθηκεύουν μέρος της τελευταίας στην ατμόσφαιρα .
Α.2.2 . 0 άνθρωπος μεταβάλλει με πρωτόγνωρους ρυθμούς τη σύνθεση της ατμόσφαιρας .
        Οι συγκεντρώσεις όλων των λεγόμενων " αερίων θερμοκηπίου " αυξάνονται ,
        λόγω της παρέμβασης των ανθρώπίνων δραστηριοτήτων στους βιοχημικούς
        κύκλους των ουσιών αυτών . Το μέγεθος των μεταβολών αυτών είναι
        σημαντικό από πλευράς ενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών .
        Γνωρίζουμε σήμερα ότι το θερμικό ισοζύγιο της γης αποσταθεροποιεί τα ι ,
        και ότι θα επακολουθήσουν ορισμένες θερμαντικές και πιθανές συναρτώμενες
        κλιματικές μεταβολές , ανάλογα με το μέγεθος της εν λόγω αποσταθεροποίησης .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 5 -
Α«*.3 . Το αέριο που έχει τη μεγαλύτερη ευθύνη για το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου
         είναι το 0θ£ , οι εκπομπές του οποίου οφείλονται κατά κύριο λόγο
         οτην κΐύοτ] ορυκτών καυσίμων (5 (3Τ0Ν8    άνθρακα /έτος*), οτην καύση
         (υλών και στην αποσύνθεση της δασικής βιομάζας που συνδέεται με την
         αποδάσωση (0, 5-Ζ0Τ0Ν5 άνθρακα /έτος ).
         Γήμερα το €02 είναι υπεύθυνο σε ποσοστό κατά τι μεγαλύτερο του 50 X
         για το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου . Ένα 25 X του φαινομένου βαρύνει τους
         χλωριοφθορι ωμένους υδρογονάνθρακες ( €ΡΟ που χρησιμοποιούνται σε
         σειρά εφαρμογών όπως τα αεροζόλ , τα δοχεία σπρέΰ, τα μηχανήματα
         κλιματισμού, τα ψυγεία, οι διαλύτες , η συσκευασία , κλπ . Το υπόλοιπο
         ποσοστό αποδίδεται στο μεθάνιο ( €Η^) από τα ζώα εκτροφής, τους
         ορυζώνες , την εκμετάλλευση φυσικού αερίου , την ατελή καύση βιομάζας
         και άνθρακα, το υποξείδιο του αζώτου (^0) που προέρχεται από την
         καύση ορυκτών καυσίμων και από τη χρήση αζωτούχων λιπασμάτων , καθώς
         και το τροποσφα ιρικό        όζον που οφείλεται σε φωτοχημικές διεργασίες
         στη ρυπαρή           ατμόσφαιρα .       Οι εκπομπές αερίων θερμοκηπίου
         έχουν αυξηθεί σημαντικά τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες .
Α.2.4 . Με βάση τα αποτέλέσματα των κλιματικών μοντέλων σε παγκόσμια κλίμακα ,
         συνάγεται το συμπέρασμα ότι η γη άγει προς αύξηση της μέσης θερμο ¬
         κρασίας της επιφάνειας , της τάξεως των 1 , 5-4, 5Έ , λόγω τουδιπλασιαφού της αιγκέν-
         τρωαπς τνν προβιομηχανικών  ισοδύναμων αερίων θερμοκηπίου . Με τους σημε ¬
         ρινούς ρυθμούς , αυτό αναμένεται να συμβεί πριν το έτος 2050 .
Α.2.5 . Τα σημερινά κλιματικά μοντέλα δεν είναι οε θέση να παράσχουν αξιόπιστες
         περιφερειακές εκτιμήσεις των ενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών που να
         ανταποκρίνονται στην προαναφερθείσα μέση αύξηση της επιφανειακής
         θερμοκρασίας .
         0ι πρώτες εκτιμήσεις υποδηλώνουν ότι στην Ευρώπη η αύξηση της θερμο -
         κραφίας ενδέχεται να είναι μεγαλύτερη απύότι ο παγκόσμιος μέσος όρος .
Α.2.6 . 0ι έμμεσες επιπτώσεις των κλιματικών αυτών μεταβολών θα μπορούσαν να
         συνοφιοθούν ως εξής :
         - αύξηση της θαλάσσιας στάθμης (από 30 αη οε 1,5 σι προκειμένου περί
            αυξήσεως της θερμοκρασίας της τάξεως των 1,5-4, 5 * Ο ,
         - μέίωση των πάγων της θάλασσας ,
         “ μείωση των υδάτινων πόρων οε ορισμένες περιοχές ,
         - μεταβολές της γεωργικής παραγωγικότητας ,
         - επιπτώσεις οτην ανθρώπινη υγεία και την οικολογία .
 * 1 βίοη- ΙΟ^τόνοι ι · 1.000 εκατομμύρια τόνοι·
 ---pagebreak---                                                - 6 -
ΛА.З
  . 3 ,,    Το διεθνές πλαίσιο και οι προοπτικές
 Α.3.1 . Γτο "Διεθνές Συνέδριο για την εκτίμηση και το ρόλο του ύΟ ^ και άλλων
            αερίων θερμοκηπίου οτις μεταβολές του κλίματος και                   αυναρτώμενες
            επιπτώσεις" ( νΐΙΙ-ΑΟΗ , 9-15 Οκτωβρίου 1985 ), επετέύχθη επιστημονική
            συναίνεση για τις βασικές συνιστώσες του φαινομένου θερμοκηπ ( οι^ που
            αναφέρονται στις προηγούμενες παραγράφους ,
Α.3 . 2 .   Τα συμπεράσματα του συνεδρίου του νΐ!_Ι_Α0Η αναπτύχθηκαν περαιτέρω σε
            συμπόσιο της ΕΟΚ στις Βρυξέλλες (3-5 Νοεμβρίου 1986) με θέμα " το 00^
            και άλλα αέρια θερμοκηπίου : κλίμα και αυναρτώμενα φαινόμενα" και αε συνέδρια προκτικής
            εργασίας (ΗΟΚΚ5ΗΟΡ8 στο νΐΙΙΑΟί (28 Σεπτεμβρίου - 20 Οκτωβρίου 1987) και το ΒΒ1Λ2Ι0 (9-13
            Νοεμβρίου 1937) με θέμα "διαμόρφωση πολιτικής για την αντιμετώπιση των κλιματικών
            μεταβολών ".
Α.3 . 3 .   Το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου απετέλεσε επίσης το αντικείμενο τ >ν εργασιών
            της επιτροπής ΒΚυΝΟΤΙΑΝΟ . Κατόπιν συστάσεων της εν λόγω επιτροπής ,
            πραγματοποιήθηκε στο Τορόντο παγκόσμιο συνέδριο με θέμα "η μεταβαλλόμενη
            ατμόσφαιρα , επιπτώσεις για την παγκόσμια ασφάλεια " ( 27-30 Ιουνίου 1988 ).
            Το συνέδριο αυτό συνέστηοε μεταξύ άλλων και τις ακόλουθες ενέργειες ;
          - Κύρωση του πρωτοκόλλου του Μοντρεάλ για τις ουσίες που προκαλούν
            μείωση του στρώματος όζοντος . Το πρωτόκολλο πρέπει να αναθεωρηθεί
            το 1990 ώστε να εξασφαλισθεί η σχεδόν ολοσχερής εξάλειψη των εκπομπών
            πλήρως αλογονωμένων χλοριοφθοριωμένων υδρογονανθράκων ( ΟΡΟ το έτος
            2000 .
          - θέσπιση ενεργειακής πολιτ ικής για τη μείωση των εκπομιπών 00^ και άλλων ιχνών
            αερίων προκειμένου να μειωθούν οι κίνδυνοι μελλοντικής παγκόσμιας
            θέρμανσης .
          - Μείωση των εκπομπών ^ κατά 20 X πεήιπου των επιπέδων του 1988 κατά
            το έτος 2005 , ως αρχικός συνολικός στόχος των εκβιομηχαν ισμένων χωρών .
          - Καθορισμός στόχων για βελτιώσεις της ενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικότητας
            που συνδέονται άμεσα με περιορισμούς του 00^ και άλλων αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
          - Έναρξη της κατάρτισης          μίας ευρείας παγκόσμιας σύμβασης .
          - Δημιουργία ενός Παγκόσμιου Ταμείου Ατμοσφά ίρας .
Α.3.4 , Μια πιθανή βραχυπρόθεσμη απόρροια των ανωτέρω διεθνών δραστηριοτήτων
            είναι η ήδη από το 1989 έναρξη της διαδικασίας για την κατάρτιση
            συμφωνίας σχετικά με το θέμα του θερμοκηπίου , που θα περιελάμβανε
            ενδεχομένως πρωτόκολλα για τον περιορισμό των εκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 7 -
Α.3.5 . Επόμενοι βασικοί οταθμοί στην πορεία για τη σύναψη της συμφωνίας αυτής
          θα είναι πιθανότατα :
        - το διεθνές συνέδριο πρακτικής εργασίας (ΜΟΚΚδΗΟΡ) για τπ νομοθεσία και
          την πολιτική, που θα πραγματοποιηθεί στην Οττάβα στις αρχές του 1989,
        “ μια υψηλού επιπέδου πολιτική συνδιάσκεψη που θα συγκληθεί το φθινόπωρο
          του 1989 από το Υπουργείο Περιβάλλοντος των Κάτω Χωρών ,
        - η Δεύτερη Παγκόσμια Συνδιάσκεψη για το Κλίμα, Γενεύη, Ιούνιος 1990,
        - η Διακυβερνητική Συνδιάσκεψη για την τόνωση της Ανάπτυξης το 1992 , που
          θα μπορούσε να αποτελεόει το κορυφαίο γεγονός·
Α.4 .     Δυνατές ενέργειες
Α.4.1 . Η πολιτική αντ ιμετώπ ι οη$ του φαινομένου θερμοκηπίου θα μπορούσε να
          περιλαμβάνει προληπτικά μέτρα και /ή μέτρα προσαρμογής ,
Α.4.2 .   Οι προληπτικές ενέργειες αποβλέπουν στη μείωση των εκπομπών αερίων
          θερμοκηπίου προκειμένου να αμβλυνθούν οι αναμενόμενες επιπτώσεις .
          Όσον αφορά το         ο ενεργειακός τομέας εν γένει και η δασοκομία
          στις τροπικές περιοχές αποτελούν τους σημαντικότερους τομείς προς
          παρέμβαση .
          Μεταξύ των ενεργειακών μέτρων που θα συνέβαλλαν στη μείωση των εκπομπών
              θα μπορούσαν να περιλαμβάνονται :
          - η αύξηση της ενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικότητας ( τόσο από πλευράς προμήθειας
            όσο και από πλευράς ζήτησης ),
          - η στροφή προς καύσιμα που περιέχουν λιγότερο άνθρακα,
          - η προαγωγή ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας και η αύξηση της χρήσης της
            βιομάζας ,
          - π προαγωγή της ασφαλούς πυρηνικής ενέργειας .
          Ιδιαίτερη σημασία φαίνεται να έχει η προαγωγή καινοτόμων ενεργειακών
          τεχνολογιών για τη στήριξη των μέτρων αυτών .
          Σε μακροπρόθεσμη βάση, η δημιουργία νέων ενεργειακών συστημάτων που δεν
          βασίζονται στον άνθρακα, θα μπορούσε να ουιΐάλει σημαντικά στον
          περιορισμό των εκπομπών
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 8 -
        Βεβαίως , τα παραπάνω μέτρα δεν έχουν όλα την ! ( δια αποτελεσματικότητα .
        Επιπλεόν , απαιτείται προσεκτική εκτίμηση της οικονομικής βιωσιμότητάς
        τους .
        Στόχος της δασικής πολιτικής πρέπει να είναι η αναστροφή των σημερινών
        τάσεων αποδάσωοης , ιδίως στις περιοχές του ισημερινού . Προς το σκοπό
        αυτό ειδικότερα , θα ήταν αναγκαία η προαγωγή υποκατάστατων του
        ξύλου που χρησιμοποιείται σε μαζική κλίμακα ως καύσιμο στις περιοχές
        αυτές , και η προαγωγή βάσιμων γεωλογικών πρακτικών , κατά τρόπον ώστε
        η γεωργική ανάπτυξη να μη συνεπάγεται ευρείας κλίμακας καύση δασών
        για τον καθαρισμό εδαφών για γεωργικές χρήσεις .
Α.4.3 . Οι δυνατές ενέργειες για τον περιορισμό των εκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου
        όπως το ΟΗ^ και ^0 είναι λιγότερο σαφής , δεδομένης της αβεβαιότητας
        που χαρακτηρίζει τις εκπομπές των εν λόγω ουσιών .
        Τα εξήςοημεία θα μπορούσαν να δ ιερευνηθούν :
        - η ελαχιστοποίηση της διαφυγής         κατά την εξόρυξη   μεταφορά και
           χρησιμοποίηση φυσικού αερίου .
        - Η ελαχιστοποίηση της διαφυγής ΟΗ^ από τους χώρους ελεγχόμενης
           εναπόθεσης .
        - II ελαχιστοποίηση της εκπομπής Ν^Ο κατά την καύση ορυκτών καυσίμων .
        - Η μελέτη δυνατών βελτιώσεων στη διαχείριση του ζωϊκού κεφαλαίου ,
           στην ορυζοκαλλ ιέργε ια και στη διαχείριση των λιμνοθαλασσών , με
           στόχο τη μείωση της αποδέσμευσης ΟΗ^.
        - Η μελέτη των δυνατοτήτων βελτίωσης των διαχειριστικών πρακτικών
           λίπανσης , με σκοπό . την μείωση της απελευθέρωσης Ν^Ο κατα τη
           χρήση αζωτούχων λιπασμάτων .
Α.4.4 . Στην περίπτωση των χλωριοφθοριωμένων υδρογονανθράκων (ΟΡΟ , η
        σχεδόν ολοσχερής εξάλειψη των εκπομπών ΟΡΟ θα ήταν δυνατή κατά
        το έτος 2000, με τον περιορισμό της παραγωγής και την ανάκτηση ,
        την ανακύκλωση ή την καταστροφή των ΟΡΟ στα υφιστάμενα προϊόντα .
Λ.4,5 . Ενδέχεται να απαιτηθεί η λήψη μέτρων προσαρμογής (δηλαδή μέτρων
        που απαιτούνται για την πρόληψη ή τον περιορισμό των καταστροφών
        που οφείλονται σε κλιματικές μεταβολές και συναρτώμενα φαινόμενα )
        προκειμένου να αντιμετωπισθούν οι επιπτώσεις που, παρά τα προληπτικά
        μέτρα, καθίστανται ενδεχομένως αναπόφευκτες .
        Στην παρούσα φάση δεν είναι δυνατόν να καθοριστούν λεπτομερώς τα
        μέτρα προσαρμογής που θα χρειαζόταν να ληφθούν στην Κοινότητα,
        λόγω της έλλειψης μιας αξιόπιστης περιφερειακής εκτίμησης των
        ενδεχόμενων επιπτώσεων .
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 9 -
      Σε γενικές γραμμές , τα μέτρα προσαρμογής για την αντιμετώπιση της
      ανόδου της στάθμης της θάλασσας θα μπορούσαν να περιλαμβάνουν θαλάσσια
      αντ ιπλημμυρ ι κά φράγματα, εθνικά ασφαλιστικά προγράμματα κατά των
      πλημμυρών , κατασκευή τεχνητών λιμνών (για την αντιμετώπιση της ηυξημένης
      περιεκτικότητας σε αλάτι ), την εγκατάλειψη ανεπτυγμένων περιοχών οε
      ζώνες χαμηλού υψομέτρου, επανεγκατάσταοη πληθυσμών μακρυά από τις
      ευπρόσβλητες περιοχές, προστασία των παράκτιων οικοσυστημάτων .
      Χρειάζεται περισσότερη μελέτη για τον καθορισμό πιθανών μέτρων προ¬
      σαρμογής σε άλλους τομείς όπως η γεωργία και η δασοκομία .
8.    ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΓΙΑ ΤΟ ΤΙ ΓΝΩΡΙΖΟΥΜΕ ΣΗΜΕΡΑ ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΜΕ ΤΟ ΦΑΙΝΟΜΕΝΟ ΘΒ’ΤΐΧΗΊΙΟΥ
8.1 . Η σύνθεση της γήινης ατμόσφαιρας μεταβάλλεται σημαντικά από τις
      ανθήωπινες δραστηριότητες .
      Με βάοη τα αποτελέσματα παγκόσμιων κλιματικών μοντέλων , οι επιστήμονες
      συμφωνούν ότι ο διπλασιασμός της ισοδύναμης ατμοσφαιρικής συγκέντρωσης
      ΟΟ^ θα έχει ως αποτέλεσμα μια αύξηση της μέσης επιφανειακής θερμοκρασίας
      της τάξεως των 1,5-4 , 5*ε .  Ένας τέτοιος διπλασιασμός είναι πιθανό
      να συμβεί το πρώτο ήμισυ του επόμενου αιώνα .
      Σύμφωνα με τα κλιματικά δεδομένα , η επακόλουθη μεταβολή των μέσων
      παγκόσμιων κλιματικών συνθηκών θα "ξεπερνά το φάσμα * των κλιμάτων
      που υπήρξαν στο ιστορικό παρελθόν και κατά τις πρόσφατες γεωλογικές
      περιόδους.”
Β.2 . Τα διάφορα φαινόμενα που θα συνοδεύουν τις εν λόγω κλιματικές μεταβολές και οι
      λεπτομερείς κοινωνικοοικονομικές συνέπειες τους δεν μπορούν επί του
      παρόντος να εκτιμηθούν κατά τρόπο αξιόπιστο , δστόσο, από τις προκα¬
      ταρκτικές εργασίες που έχουν γίνει σχετικά με το θέμα αυτό, προκύπτει
      ότι οι κίνδυνοι είναι εξαιρετικά υψηλοί και οι ενδεχόμενες άμεσες
      και έμμεσες επιπτώσεις ενδεχομένως διαλυτικές .
8.3 . Πρόσφατα διεθνή γεγονότα έχουν προσδώσε ι έναν επείγοντα χαρακτήρα
      στην παγκόσμιας κλίμακας συζήτηση που διεξάγεται . επί του θέματος .
      Είναι σαφές πλέον άτι τώρα είναι η στιγμή για τη χάραξη βιώσιμων
      στρατηγικών , επιταχύνοντας παράλληλα την ερευνητική προσπάθεια .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 10 -
Γ.      ΣΥΜΠΕΡΑΣΜΑΤΑ ΤΗΙ ΕΠΙΤΡΟΠΗΣ
Γ.Ο .    Ακολουθεί περίληψη των κυριότερων συμπερασμάτων της παρούοας έκθεσης .
         Το κεφάλαιο IV του παρόντος εγγράφου περιλαμβάνει πλήρη παρουσίαση
         των εν λόγω συστάσεων .
Γ.1 .    Η Κοινότητα πρέπει να εφαρμόσει πλήρως τη ούιιβαοη της Βιέννης για
         την προστασία του στρώματος όζοντος και το πρωτόκολλο του Μοντοεάχ
         για τις ουσίες που εξασθενίζουν το στρώμα όζοντος# και να συμμετάσχει
         ενεργά στην επαναδιαπραγμάτευση του εν λόγω πρωτοκόλλου .
Γ.2 .    Η Κοινότητα πρέπει να ενθαρρύνει την έναρξη συζητήσεων για τις δυνα ¬
         τότητες ιιιας διεθνούς συμφωνίας νια τη μελλοντική προστασία της
         ατμόσφαιρας , θα πρέπει να είναι έτοιμη να συμβάλει σημαντικά στην
         προετοιμασία και διαπραγμάτευση μιας τέτοιας συμφωνίας , η οποία θα
         μπορούσε να περιλαμβάνει τον καθορισμό συγκεκριμένων στόχων για
         τον περιορισμό των εκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου , καθώς και καθορισμό
         των μέτρων και προγραμμάτων για τη μείωση των εκπομπών .
Γ.3 .    Κατά συνέπεια ,       η     Επιτροπή θα         αναλάβει     την πρωτο ¬
         βουλία της έναρξης ενός ουσιαστικού προγράμματος μελέτης των επιλονών
         πολ ιτ ικής για την αξιολόγηση του εφικτού , του κόστους και των
         αναμενόμενων αποτελεσμάτων ενδεχόμενων μέτρων περιορισμού των εκπομπών
         αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
         Οι κύριοι τομείς ενός τέτοιου προγράμματος πρέπει να είναι :
      - προσδιορισμός και τεχνική αξιολόγηση μέτρων και τεχνολογιών που μπορούν
         να μειώσουν τις εκπομπές αερίων θερμοκηπίου,
      - ανάλυση των οικονομικών , βιομηχανικών , ενεργειακών , κοινωνικών και
         θεσμικών επιπτώσεων των ανωτέρω ενδεχόμενων μέτρων και τεχνολογιών ,
      - διαμόρφωση και αξιολόγηση σεναρίων πολιτικής που να αναφέρονται ειδι ¬
         κότερα σε πιθανούς στρατηγικούς στόχους ανωτάτων ορίων εκπομπής €0^ ,
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 11
        “ δημιουργία ενός πλαισίου ανάλυσης των αποφάσεων ,
        - 6 ιαμόριρωοη και αξιολόγηση πολιτικών προσαρμογής .
 Γ..4 .    Η Κοινότητα και τα κράτη μέλη πρέπει από τώρα να λαμβάνουν υπόψη
           στις αποφάσεις τους για τη χάραξη πολιτικήο (όσον αφορά την ενέργεια
          ή άλλους τομείς που αφορούν το εν λόγω ζήτημα) το πρόβλημα των ενδε ¬
          χόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών που συνδέονται με το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου .
          Η ενσωμάτωση της παραμέτρου αυτή θα απέτρεπε υψηλότερες δαπάνες στοτ>
          μέλλον .
Γ.5 .     Επιπλέον, .η Επιτροπή θα αναλάβει άμεση δράση για την ενίσχυση
          και επέκταση των προσπαθειών οτον τομέα της εξοικονόμησης       ενεργείας ,
          της βελτίωσης της ενεργειακής αποτελεσματ ικδτητας , της ανάπτυξης νέων
          ενεργειακών πηγών , της χρήσης ασφαλούς πυρηνικής τεχνολογίας .
          θα πρέπει να δοθεί υψηλή προτεραιότητα στην επιτάχυνση της ανάπτυξης
          και προαγωγής καινοτόμων τεχνολογιών εμπορικής κλίμακας στους εν λόγω ·
          τομείς .
          Δεν υπάρχει αμφιβολία ότι οι ενέργειες αυτές δικαιολογούνται τόοο
          λόγω ενεργειακών όσο και λόγω περιβαλλοντικών αναγκών , ανεξάρτητα
          από την αβεβαιότητα που χαρακτηρίζει ορισμένες επιστημονικές πλευρές
          του φαινομένου θερμοκηπίου .
          Εξαιρετικά σημαντική θα ήταν η δυνατότητα της ποσοτικοποίησης , σε
          όρους μείωσης του (^, των βελτιώσεων της ενεργειακής αποτελεομα-
          τ ικδτητας .
Γ.6 .     Η Κοινότητα πρέπει να υποστηρίξει δραστήρια ερευνητικά προγράμματα
          που αφορούν όλες τις πλευρές του φαινομένου θερμοκηπίου και να
          δημιουργήσει νέες ενεργειακές τεχνολογίες που να έχουν τη δυνατότητα
          περιορισμού των εκπομπών 002 »
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 12 -
I. AN INTRODUCTION TO THE 6REENH0USE ISSUE
   What the "greenhouse effect" is in short
1- The climate conditions we experience on earth are due / among other
   things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
   composition . Without the atmosphere/ the average surface temperature of
   the earth , which is presently of around 15°C / would be as low as -18°C .
   In fact / the heat balance of the earth / which receives radiation from
   the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space , is largely governed
   by the composition of the atmosphere .
   Firstly water vapour , mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere , is an
   effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
   radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
   surface temperature of the earth .
   Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide ( COg), methane ( CH^),
   nitrous oxide (N^O) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs ) have the property of
   being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
   retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
   infra-red radiation .
   Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
   by the earth . ^
   The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
   coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2. The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
   significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
   mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
   balance of the earth .
   Stratospheric ozone ( the "ozone layer ") is a strong absorber of
   ultraviolet radiation from the sun . Moreover ozone contributes to the
   absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
   contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere . Any change
   in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
   thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 13 -
    In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of C02,
    CFCs, CH^, N20, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
    gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
    and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
    depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
    This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect "
    because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
    incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
    radiation by the ground, warms the air and is then retained by the glass
    from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases t emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.  The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
    have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4 . In case of carbon dioxide ( CO^) :
    a.  Emission sources :
        Most of anthropogenic C02 emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
         ( around 5 Gtons* of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
        contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
        biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
        the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
        of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
         C02 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
         increased in 25 years, since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
        more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
         Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to emission
        with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each, followed by gas with
         less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
         It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
         been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
* 1 Gton = 109 tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                      14 -
The share of Ct^ emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :
                 CO2 emissions in million tons of carbon /y
                            and as X of world total
                               I           1950 I      1965   I     1980   I
I          Region              I Mt /y* I     X | Mt /y* I  X | Mt /y*| X  !
I North America                I 723    I  44,7 I 1003 I 32,1 | 13801 26,7 I
 | URSS and Eastern Europe I 291        I  18,0 I 750 1 24,0 | 12511 24,2  I
| China                        I 23     I       I 178 1 5,7 | 439 1 8,5    I
I Western Europe               I 379    I  23,4 I 643 1 20,6 ! 853(16,5    I
 | Japan , Australia           I 45 I       2,8 I 137 1 4,4 ( 300 1 5,8    I
( Developing Countries         I 92 I       5,7 I 250 1 8,0 | 631(12,2     I
I Others (worldwide gas        I 63 I       3,9 I 163 1 5,2 1 31 0 1 6,0   I
Iflaring , bunkers )           I        I       I        1    1        I   I
I                              I        I       I        1    1        I   I
| World total                  I 1618 I   100   I 3126 Moo I 5170|100      I
I                              I        I       I        I    I        I   I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle"
             US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka, Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of COg emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 15 -
The trends of CO2 world emission from different fossil fuels for the
period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US DOE / ER-0239
report referred to above ) :
          5000 I            1             1  :   n  *• -
          4000 _                                       u
          3000 _
          2000 L
       i 2000                                          -
       0       r
      1 1000
          1000 *-
       s 800 :                                         ï
       | 600 -
       U       /                        •/
       O
        « 400 r-             . e*'  X
                                     X
       “        -
           200 -         f
                  s•
           100 L-_I-1-1_
             1950         1960          1970     1980
                                     Year
The steep increase of yearly CO2 emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels . Consequently C02
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
    I Fuel           1 1 985 C02 emissions in |
    I                1 mi Ilion tons carbon /y |
   I gas             1              807        1
   I oi l            1             2189        I
   1 coal            I             2181        I
   1 gas flaring I                   52        I
   1 Total           I             5229        I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         16 -
        Per capita COg emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
        are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
         I        Country           | Per capita CO2 emissions (tons |
         I                          I of carbon per inhabitant )     |
               United States        |              4,9
               German Dem . Rep .   |              4,9
               Canada               |              4,4
               Czechoslovakia       |              4,1
               Australia            |              3,9
               Soviet Union         |              3,3
               Poland               |              3,0
               Belgium              |              3,0
               Germany, Fed . Rep . |              2,9
               United Kingdom       |              2,5
               Netherlands          |              2,5
               France               |              2,0
               Japan                |              1 /9
               Italy                I              1/5
               Spain                I              1 /4
               China                I              0/ 5
               Brazil               |              0/ 3
               India                |              0/ 1
               World average        |              1 /0
        Calculated from : Smith, I.M. ( 1988) : C02 and climate change;
        Draft technical review, EIA Coal Research , London, and UN
        statistical data
    b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
        Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
        COg has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
        There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
        was around 275-285 ppm. The rate of concentration increase for COg
        has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
        year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
*
  1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 17 -
         COj concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
         emissions, mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation, on
         the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans
         and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
         emissions and this leads to more C02 stored in the atmosphere .
5.   In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans, air conditioning, refrigerators, solvents,
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
         to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
         by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
         note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
         higher than that of C02, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
         trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than C02 ' on a
         molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
         of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100
         years ).
   1 ppb = part per billion = 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 18 π
6.  In case of methane ( CH .)  :
   ■ ■      ■                H
    a.  Emission sources :
        Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
        paddy fields , natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
        Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH .
        cycle is not well known .
        Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
        sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
        shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
        Natural Sources (million tons per year ) :
        Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )
        Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50 )
        Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
        Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
        Oceans                                 10 (+/- 3 )
        Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
        Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
        Man-Made Sources ( million tons per year ) :
        Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc .) 75 (+/- 35 )
        Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30)
        Biomass burning                        70 (+/- 40 )
        Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
        Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
        ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 19 -
b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
    Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
    0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
    northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983 ). Average yearly increase
    over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
In case of nitrous oxide (N^O) :
a.  Emission sources :
    Man-made emissions of NgO are mainly due to combustion of fossil
    fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
    seem also to give a significant contribution .
    Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
    Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
    is most difficult .    It is estimated that the overall emissions are
    as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
    brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
    authors ) :
    Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
    Oceans and estuaries                   2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
    Natural soils                          6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
    Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
    Fossil fuel combustion                 4.0 (+/- 1.0)
    Biomass burning                        0.7 (+/- 0.2)
    Fertilized soils                       0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
    Cultivated naturai soils               1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
    ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                D0E /NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                        20 -
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
         N^O atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
         290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .  The present rate of increase is
         around 0,25% per year .
 8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
     greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
     natural cycles . Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
     quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
     observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .
 9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
     future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
     those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
     assumptions .
10 . It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
     From this point of view, uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for COg, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, ^0 and 0j
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 21 -
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83 ) = 13% ,
Goldenberg = 7%, Edmons = 19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4% , 2000 = 7.1% .   Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20/GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 /GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations . However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                                 22 -
The results are summariEed in next figure .
           Commitment to Future Warming in the WRJ Scenarios
               WRJ Scenarios
   U.0 L.       _                                                            _
                I I Hlgh
                fl   High Emissions
   «•« [-       Щ Base
                H    Вме Case
                          Сж                                               /                                    |'М.
                     Modest PoUdes
                     Modest   PoUdes                                     i                                      B
       r        E3 Slow
                     Sow Build-Up
                           Build-Up                                     /                                       ffcj'
     °1                     I            | A! ι I ρA I                        ι                                     1
      1960                2000
                                       □□ ÀAAEJ
                                         !
                                                    BEJ 1A 1A
                                               2025 I    I     I 2050 I     2075
                                                                                 Slow Bufld-Up does not reach double
                                                                                 COj within the forecast period
            Approximate year of commitment to wanning
            equal to 1.5 to 4-S degrees centigrade above pre -
            industrial temperature .
            Approximate year of commitment to wanning
            equal to 1J to 45 degrees centigrade above 1960
            temperatures.
Source : Kintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees /
               WRI , Washington DC / USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                     2 3-
                                                Energy Policies in Ihc WRI Scenarios
                                                                        Related Energy Model Parameter Value
 But Cue Scenario
• 'Business-As-Usual," the inertia] model of growth and
  change in the world energy industry
• No policies to slow carbon dioxide omissions
• Minimal stimulus to improve end-use efficiency                        (Rate of change • 0.8% per year)
• Modest stimulus for synfuels devclopment                              (Fimi Price - S3.15-J4.25pet CJ in 2005)
• Minimal stimulus for development of solar energy                      (Finii Pri« - $16.50 per GJ in 2025)
  systems
• No policy to limit tropical deforestation or lo encourage
  reforestation
• Minimal environmental costs included in price of energy               ($0.30 per GJ for coal; $1.00 per CJ for synfuels)
High Emissions Scénario
• Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
• No policies to slow carbon dtoxide emtssions
• No shmulus to improve end-use efficiency                              (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coal                             (Rate of improvement - 0.75% per year)
• Strong stimulus for synfuels development                              (Final Price - S2.75-S3.50 per CJ in 1995)
* No stimulus for development of soiar energy systems                   (Final Price - 520 per GJ in 2040)
• Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
  agriculture
* Token environmental costs included in price of energy                 ($0.15 per GJ for coal; $0.50 per C) for synfuels)
Modest Polidcs Scénario
• Strong stimulus for improved end-use efficiency                       (Rate of change • 1 .0% per year)
• Modest stimulus for solar energy                                      (Final price ■» $15.00 per CJ in 2025 )
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
  protection; more intensive rather than extensive
  agriculture encouraged
• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                     ($0.60 per GJ for coal; $1.50 per CJ for synfuels)
  prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
  fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
* Strong emphasis placed on Improving energy efficiency                 (Rate of improvement ■ 1.5% per year)
* Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged                         (Final Price - $12-00 per CJ in z00U)
* Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
  protection
* High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                  ($1.20 per G] for coal; $3.00 per GJ for synfuels)
  discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                  Total Emissions of C02 in the WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)
              “1J           WR1 Scénario»
                            WRl Scénario»                                                /
                                                                                          y
                         B High Emissions                                           y
                          ▲ Base Case                                            /
                         if
                         Jf Modest Policies                                  /
                          9 Slow Build-up
                                   Buüd-up                                /
         s                                                           s*
        *                                                         /
         1                                                 /
       4(3    11 .                                  /
                                                     X
         §    14 ‘                            /
       0      14 -                        /
               2.                                                                        -*
               D -,-–,-1-1-
                 1975               2000              2025             2050               2073
 ---pagebreak---                                                   24 -
 By a different approach . Or . R. A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
 of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
 link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
 probabilities to the possible outcome .
 The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                             RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 IN°C)
      (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
      (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY            ÊQUILIBRIUM UTRANSIENT) (C          ~C)) CLIMATIC
                                                                                  CL|MAT,C CHANGE CHANGE
      r42>>_-_ _- _7-rd 5°_-3_7)_
       I                                          e.o --
                                                  6.0 +
      i                                                  _(( 2.5^3_1
                                                             2.5-3 . 1 ) _
                                                                         _              __
      L.                                          «- 1 ■"                                            n
                                                  4.0 +                                              I  В
                                                                                                   .90  B
                                                          -                 “f                          ,
                                                    J                  BEST GUESS
                                                                       BEST   GUESS   : -45             ,
                                                    vTb
                                                      1° 0.0-1.12
                                                              /TT (TT -   _ i_
     I                    l      T–                    -a
                                                       'a -(o - 6! _
     r±: 800
            -r+r-'rrtr\-ir-Sv
                  700     ' 600 jJ    500          yjfl\l995
                                                            . 1 , 2005
                                                            1995 2005
                                                                     . J. . 2015
                                                                            .J. . 2025 2020:' : . 20-45
                                                                            2015 2025
                                                                                                  J. .
                                                                                                  2045
     ‘EEQUIVALENT
          QUIVALENT CO,
                    C02 CONC
                      • C0NC (ppmv)
                          I  (ppmv) |j
                                 I     A
                                                           \
                                                                                      j           YEAR
                                                                                                  YEAR
    !                     I                             2006 Х''Ч'ч^ч\ I
                                                     +2005
                                                     + 2016
                          r x--2026 N. I
                                                     + 2026
                                                     -■ 2035
                                                     +
                                                     - -2045
                                                     +  2045                                      \
    Wmfrrj?                   У*                      uYEAR                                            \
    (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
   emissions
-   T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
   increase due to a doubling of the equivalent Ct^ concentration
- " transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
   due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
   been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 25 -
        The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
        above mentioned evaluation :
            Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which
         we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
         outside this range is less than 1% .
       - The "best-guess" range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
         probability of warming within this range is 45% .
       - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
         best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 . The presently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
      uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts ^ :
      - Globa l-Wean Surface Harming (very probable ). For a doubling of
        atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
        the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
        expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C . The most significant
        uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course, the actual
        rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
        rate of greenhouse gases, natural fluctuations in the climate system,
        and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
        climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
      - Globa l-Wean Precipitation Increase (very probable ). Increased heating
        of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
        greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
        average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
        decreases in rainfall .
      - Polar Winter Surface Harming (very probable ).   As the sea ice boundary
        is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
        surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
        water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
        surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1 )                                                          National Research
      Source : NRC ( 1987); Current Issues in Climate Change,
                Council , Washington DC , USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 26 -
     - Suaaer Continental Dryness/Waraing ( likely in the long term ). Several
        studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods, and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ). As the climate
        warms, the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ). Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere . The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that "the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects (processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO, 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 27 -
     As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "C02 and other
     greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
     Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
            Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain, it is now
            believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
            produce a significant change during the 21st century .
         - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
            50 years .
         - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
            temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
            by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 . Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on "C02 and
     other greenhouse gases" mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        " The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
          global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years, while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C, sea level has risen by 10-15 cm. ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); "Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     . heating and therefore expanding the ocean water ;
     . melting of mountain glaciers ;
     . melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica;
     . a possible (but unlikely) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28 -
     A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
     avai labié .
     The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
     seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1 / 5 meter ( Toronto Conference/ June
     1988 ).
     A significant rise in sea level would :
     . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
     . accelerate coastal erosion ;
     . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
     . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 . Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .   This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Water Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes .  As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption;
     . power génération;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the CO^ atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 29 -
into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .
The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :
. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
  regional level ;
. length of growing season;
. number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change" view : emphasises the significance of gradual
  increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
  long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
  agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
  unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
  from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
  flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
       . . .below
summarised    -    ( 2 ) .:
"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
   plant growth rates ;
     Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
     Variations on Agriculture, Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
     and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 30 -
 - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
 - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality;
 - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature, the magnitude and
location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
  levels are high latitude , semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
  areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
                                                       (1)
  USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen         et al , show
  reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats ,
  due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs, changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 31
     In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
     give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
     effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
     about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
     detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
     systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19 . Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of Ct^ on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
       . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
         forest ecosystems ;
       . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
       . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
       . disturbance of timber- and woodproducts markets and trade ;
       . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
         ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
         reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health . It could in particular :
       . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
         temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
       . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme
         events );
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 32 -
      Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
      tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
      face health problems .
21 .  Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
      The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
        . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
        . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
        . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,
          resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;
        . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
          reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
          could migrate ).
      The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
      thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
      Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
      coupled , both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
      capable of being modified by climate .
      However , it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
      fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
      overfishing .
 II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
 Introduction
22 =  Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
      équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
      déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
      Chamberlin , 1899 ).
      Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du CO2 par un
      réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 33 -
    Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
    milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
    tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
    Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
    l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
    Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
    des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the "Villach" conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract C02
       rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change" (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987 );
    . The Brundtland Commission' s report
    . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
     Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere, implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         34 -
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
     Canadian government to followup some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
     Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
         Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended , globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
      - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     " A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 35 -
                                                  l
Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of CO2 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of C0£ is an imperative
goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce COg emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
Reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly, the
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
modifications in supplies .
Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gases . A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally,
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in COg and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency, a
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
( i ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels, ( ii ) reviewing
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes, and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 36 -
   proliferation . If these problems can be solved, through improved
   engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
   could have a role to play in lowering Ct^ emissions .
 - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and
   approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made
   through reduction of fossil fuel combustion , to reduce ( i ) emissions
   of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
   environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
   tropospheric ozone; Ciii ) other non-COg greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
   the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
   use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations ,
   Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
   framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
   convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
   international exchange of information and support of research and
   monitoring , and should provide a framework for specific protocols
   for addressing particular issues , taking into account existing
   international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
   International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
   in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
   Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference pn Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                               (
                             - 37 -
Establish a World Atmosphere Fund, financed in part by a levy on
fossil fuel consumption of industrialized countries , to mobilize a
substantial part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government -to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
Increase significantly the funding for research , development and
transfer of information on renewable energy, if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
agreements .
Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Developments ( WCED ) report , " Our Common Future", including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts , monitoring, research and analysis related to the changing
atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Croupe reports
         and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
         Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" (to be published in
         the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
         conferences mentioned under paragraph 26 , and other future meetings
         dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
         establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
         changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         environment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation, already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 39 -
     - the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva, June 1990;
     - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist in :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 . Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     ■ ц
     In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
     ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
         "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
          other issues, above all in the field of environment and development .
          This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
          impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
          extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
          international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                            AO -
           The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
           ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
           of the difference in regional impact should not , however, be allowed
           to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it
           Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
           regions into "winners " or " losers ". This is not a " zero-sum" game .
           Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
           uncertain proportions ."
 III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
 Introduction
29 .  Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
      international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
      the greenhouse issue .
      Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview , could
      include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
             emissions );
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
             to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
             preventive measures ).
30 .  Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
      ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of Ct^ emissions );
      (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
            water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 41
     ( c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
           to be adopted/ taking account of (a ) and of particular European
           conditions ).
     The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
           increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
           ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
           will happen / when , where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
           uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
           Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
           could consider .
     ( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
           - which danger / when and where/ one has to face and what
             consequences upon the environment / the economy/ the society at
             large are to be expected;
           - how to implement at best the measures decided;
     Therefore/ the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel / and there must be a continuous feedback between the two.
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process/ by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 42 -
 Research activities
32 . Already since 1980, the Commission of the European Communities is
     carrying out a research programme in Climatology , whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling, with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
     resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases, and climatological ly significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shel.es .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations , the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops , forests , water
           resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased CO ^ and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation, the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 43 -
     ( 4) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
           upon agriculture and industry ( the impacts of the alternance of
           droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources, the impacts
           of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
           agriculture and industry ).
     ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
     ( 6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
           probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
           affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
     ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community,
           due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
           consequences for agriculture , consequences for costline regions of
           the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
34 . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution ,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as CO2 is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 44 -
35 . Elimination of COg at the source could eventually become a new domain of
      resarch .    No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
      avai lable .
      New directions for research in this field should be explored .
36. Moreover, the management of the COg problem implies both the definition
     of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
      objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
      how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
      reduction , the implementation action will have to determine the
      economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction, the
      allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
      institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
      System Analysis can , in principle, provide the adequate basis for
      looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
      possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
     'Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
     environment and to help construct Scenarios of adaptive measures ;
      Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
      systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
      The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
      should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
      energy related CC^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
      The aim of such research would be to evaluate the 'feasibility and the
      costs Of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
      oh the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction)
37 . ‘Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
      in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
     'This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
      concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
      greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
     objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                             - 45 -
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including, in case of COg,
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39 . Carbon dioxide (CO^,) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I, C02 emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) end in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .                                      'fe'l
     A tentative list of actions aiming at         émissions réduction whiç,h
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO.,
        There are several types of technical energy related measures tjiat
        could curb iCO^e'missions , as listed below .
        Of course ^o&?atft' 'those measures are equally efficient or     i iv :
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between! the
        physical poterttial of C02 émission réduction of a given measurè and
        its économie viability .                                             |
        The following technical measures, which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce C02 emissions ^from
        carbon-basetf ’fuels :
                           . o      r    *■
                                                                        ' V ‘
                                                                            V'
                                                                            >: -
                                                                            h ■
            Energy Etfî'ciency                                             r
                 " ■ ; r'Çfcl                                            ,i ■
                               ‘!'À * ?'•
           - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light tsulbs, better insulation, more efficient cars , electronic
              régula^ ons , etc. );                              :         ÿ
                                                                           ft-'
                                                                           V
                                                                           *;■
                     f                '■ *                   •
                       ‘ '* ' >                             i  ,
                             ,.<S .                            *
 ---pagebreak---                               - 46 -
    - improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration,
      introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
      high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);
b . Energy Supply
    - fuel switching to less CO^ emitting fuels (the relation of C02
      emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
      the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
      follows : 121 , 100, 88, 58);
    - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
      windpower , hydro, geothermal , photovoltaics );
    - increased use of nuclear power .
c . Biotic sources
    - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
      cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
      the CO2 atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
    - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
      technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
      be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
    - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
      forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
      carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing COg emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 47 -
   System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
   exploring consequences of economic-energy-environmental related
   measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
   information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CO2 reduction
   goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
   technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
   objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
   a . Conserve forest resources
        - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
          developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
          cause further deforestation ;
        - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
          forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
          sustainable basis ;
        - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
        - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
        - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
          utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
        - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
          tropical regions ;
        - promote agroforestry/ especially in developing countries ,
    c . Natural ecosystem protection
        - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
          relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 48 -
40 . CFCs eaissions
     Possible preventative actions are :
     a . Constrain use
     b . Constrain production
     c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, NgO eaissions
     Actions which could be considered are :
     a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
     b . Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
     c . Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
     d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
         cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
     e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
         N^O release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 . The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
     greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
     feasible , could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
     measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 . Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
     impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
     levels .
     Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
     if it is believed that :
     - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
        to in the short term ;
     - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
        effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
        now, it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
        atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 49 -
       At this stage it is not possible to cover, even in qualitative and
       simple way, all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
       in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
      However, it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
      measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
 44 . Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
      - Sea walls / flood barriers .
      - National flood insurance programmes .
      - Construction of reservoirs (to combat increased salinity).
      - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
      - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
      - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 .  Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
      impacts on agriculture are :
      - More efficient use of fertilisers .
      - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production;
      - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
      - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
0
         control , water management , etc .
  Cooperation with developing countries
46 .  All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
      planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
      needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
      aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
      the greenhouse effect . In particular :
      a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
          prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
          deforestation , conserving wetlands, coastal ecosystems and the
          genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 50 -
b ) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 51
 IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 . The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
      protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
      that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
      application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision,
      Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 . The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
      renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
      deplete the ozone layer . The Protocol should be revised so that the
      CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
      recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .  The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
      possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
      the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
      to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
      include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
      greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
      programmes .
50 .  Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
      substantial poli cy~options study programme to evaluate the feasibility,
      costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
      emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
      international debate on the issue .
      The main areas of such programme should be :
        - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
           in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
        - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
           implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
        - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for C02 emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 52 -
         A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
         this frame .
         The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
       - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
         probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
         benefits .
       - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
         unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
         decision analysis exercise .
     The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
     energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
     policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
     exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
     The above mentioned work programme should be closely link.d to the
     research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
     climatology and energy .
     Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem, the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy ,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources, use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of CO^ reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit COg emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     envi ronment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
          which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
          for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
          precariously low, coastal states, etc . Such maping would form a
          reference basis against which policies could be evaluated . It would
          certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
          developing countries .
       - The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
          account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
          for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
          modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
          in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 54 -
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         increased, in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally , the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                    - 55 -
                 ANNEX
Recent aajor events on the greenhouse issue
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of CO., and of other greenhouse gases In climate variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP , WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
        long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
        as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
        structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
        planning - all based on the assumption that past climat’c data ,
        without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
        longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
        greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
        global climate in the next century ."
      " While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
        actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
        affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
        fossil fuels , and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
        little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
        magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
        atmospheric      concentration could have profound effects on global
        ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 57 -
      "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
        into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
        policies on social and economic development / environmental
        programmes/ and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
      " Public information efforts should be increased by international
        agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
        change and sea level / including wide distribution of the documents of
        this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
      " Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
        regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
        are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless / the understanding of the
        greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
        policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
        effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
        should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels/ 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC , DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 . It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric C02 and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue , mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
          dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
          intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
          closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                         58
       - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
           necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
            makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops bn "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   (Villach ~ Austria, 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio ~ Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to "start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned irt paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
        CFC emissions )* Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
        after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
        of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
        emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
        greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
        Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
        energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
        efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing COg
        emissions . Research and development on alternative (non-fossil )
        energy systems must be greatly intensified .
        ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
        Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation,
        e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
        Forest Action Plan , 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
       because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture,
 ---pagebreak---                               - 59 -
energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
                                    4
( A ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; N20
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices, etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise, river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools .   An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed in terms of C02 equivalence) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these , regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                               - 60 -
( 7) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities /
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes / atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry/ as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / GEMS ( Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
    monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
    changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU/ UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP )/
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP ) is an important
component of the WCP/ as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly/ the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme )/ initiated by ICSU/ addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 61
D. The Brundtland Commission 1 s report
    The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
   the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
   body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
   the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
   promoting a sustainable development .
   Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
   Session in the fall of 1987 .
     This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
     international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
     It is suggested to consider :
     "- improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
      - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins,
        mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
      - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
        of the causative gases ; and
      - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
        climate changes and rising sea level ."
      The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
      international convention on "management policies for all
      environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E. The European Parliament resolution
   The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
   resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of CO^ in
   the atmosphere :
   " The European Parliament
      - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
        research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
        of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
        82-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up, which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and, in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
                     Λ
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution , provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since , contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;
2.  Calls upon the Commission , in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 63 -
 3. Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
     from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
     in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
     purification respectively;
 4 . Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation, for which the
     Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
 5.  Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
     put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
     countries ;
 6.  Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
     research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
     especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
     ocean-atmosphere interaction;
 7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
     essential requirement for climatic stability;
 8.  Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
     the Northern hemisphere, which are largely responsible for
     jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
     given access to the latest technological know-how;
 9.  Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
     quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
     directly responsible - about the implications of the human
     activities in question , while explaining the need for effective
     measures ;
10 . Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
     climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
     a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 . Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
     its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---                                            1
                         Πρόγραμμα εργασίας της Επιτροπής
                  σχετικά με την ανάλυση των επιλογών πολιτικής
                 για την αντιμετώπιση των κινδύνων που συνδέονται
                            με το " φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου"
I. ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΜΕΝΟ ΤΟΥ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΟΣ
   Στόχος του προγράμματος αυτού είναι η ανάδειξη των δεδομένων που χρειάζονται
   για να καθοριστεί ο πιθανός ρόλος της Κοινότητας και των κρατών μελών της
   όσον αφορά τον προσδιορισμό και την προώθηση , στο κατάλληλο διεθνές πλαίσιο ,
   των μέτρων που είναι αναγκαία για την αντιμετώπιση των κινδύνων που
   συνδέονται με το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου .
   Προς το σκοπό αυτό το παρόν πρόγραμμα εργασίας          διαλαμβάνει τα ακόλουθα
   θέματα ;
   Α . Διαμόρφωση των επιλογών πολιτικής για την πρόληψη / περ ιορι ομό των εκπομπών
       αερίων θερμοκηπίου .
       θα καθοριστούν τα μέτρα που χρειάζονται για να επιτευχθούν στρατηγικοί
       περιορισμοί των εκπομπών των διαφόρων αερίων θερμοκηπίου . Για κάθε αέριο
       θερμοκηπίου , αυτό συνεπάγεται λεπτομερή εκτίμηση των διαθέσιμων επιλογών
       για τη μείωση των εκπομπών , το επίπεδο της μείωσης των εκπομπών που
       συνεπιφέρει κάθε επιλογή , και τη δέσμη των μέτρων που χρειάζονται για να
       επιτευχθούν στρατηγικές μειώσεις . Οι δυνατότητες πρόληψης / περιορισμού των
       εκπομπών θα εξετασθούν για τους ακόλουθους τομείς :
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 2 -
    - παραγωγή ενεργείας ,
    - κατανάλωση ενεργείας (συμπεριλαμβανομένης της μεταφοράς ),
    “ βιομηχανική παραγωγή ,
    “ χρήση προϊόντων ,
    - γεωργικές δραστηριότητες .
    Θα χρειαοτεί μια κατάλληλη προσέγγιοη ώοτε να ληφθούν υπόψη οι
    ιδιαιτερότητες χωρών ή ομάδων χωρών . Ειδικότερα θα χρειαοτεί να ληφθούν
    υπόψη τα ακόλουθα οημείσ :
    - το επίπεδο οικονομικής ανάπτυξης ,
    ~ η τρέχουοα ενεργειακή πολιτική ,
    - η γεωγραφία .
Β · Επ ιπτώοει ς των επιλογών για τη μείωοη των εκπομπών .
    Οι επιλογές μείωσης των εκπομπών θα εξεταστούν προκειμένου να εκτιμηθούν
    τα ακόλουθα σημεία :
    - τεχνικές και βιομηχανικές επιπτώσεις ,
    - δημοσιονομικές και οικονομικές επιπτώσεις /
    “ πολιτικές , θεσμικές και κοινωνικές επιπτώσεις .
Γ . Δημιουργία πλαισίου ανάλυσης των αποφάσεων .
    Θα δημιουργηθεί ένα πλαίσιο ταξινόμησης των διαθέσιμων πληροφοριών για
    όλες τις πλευρές του φαινομένου θερμοκηπίου , κατά τρόπον ώστε να καταστεί
    δυνατός ο προσδιορισμός των ενδεχόμενων οφελών (από πλευράς μείωσης των
    κινδύνων κλιματικών μεταβολών , κλπ .) που αντιστοιχούν σε διαφορετικές
    επιλογές πολιτικής . Το πλαίσιο θα λαμβάνει υπόψη :
    - τις εκπομπές και τη μείωση των εκπομπών ,
    - τις επιπτώσεις της εν λόγω μείωσης ,
    - τα διαθέσιμα επιστημονικά δεδομένα για τα ενδεχόμενα οφέλη εναλλακτικών
       ελέγχων των εκπομπών .
 ---pagebreak---                                        3
     Το πλαίοιο θα διαμορφωθεί κατά τρόπον ώστε να λαμβάνεται υπόψη η
     αβεβαιότητα που αφορά τις εκμπομπές , την αποτελεσματ ικότητα των ελέγχων ,
     τις κλιματικές μεταβολές και τις συνέπειες ,        και θα επιτρέπει   τον
     προσδιορισμό των πιθανότερων αποτελεσμάτων των διαφόρων ενεργειών .
     Το πλαίσιο θα επιτρέπει επίσης την εξέταση των αποτελεσμάτων των
     επιβραδυντικών μέτρων.,      Διαγράφοντας, τις βασικές συνιστώσες του
     προβλήματος και εντοπίζοντας βασικές παραμέτρους αβεβαιότητας που
     επηρεάζουν στο μεγαλύτερο βαθμό τα αποτελέσματα , το πλαίοιο θα αποτελέσει
                                                                              ί,
     σημαντικό εργαλείο για την αξιολόγηση των μέτρων και για την επικέντρωση
     των μελλοντικών ερευνών σε θεμελιώδους σημασίας ζητήματα προς λήψη
     αποφάσεων .
Δ... Αξιολόγηση των ενδεχόμενων θετικών αποτελεσμάτων διαφόρων επιλογών
     πολιτικής με τη βοήθεια ενός πλαισίου ανάλυσης αποφάσεων και κατάρτιση
     σεναρίων για την εξέλιξη του κλίματος και τις σχετικές επιπτώσεις ως
     αποτέλεσμα της υλοποίησης επιλογών για τον έλεγχο των εκμπομπών .
     Το πλαίσιο θα χρησιμοποιηθεί για τον προσδιορισμό των πιθανών
     αποτελεσμάτων των εναλλακτικών επιλογών μείωσης των εκμπομπών , και το
     χρονοδιάγραμμα εφαρμογής τους ( σενάρια ). θα προσδιορίζει επίσης τις
     σχετικές πιθανότητες επίτευξης θετικών αποτελεσμάτων .
Ε . Προσδιορισμός και αξιολόγηση των μέτρων εφαρμογής που χρειάζονται στο
     πλαίσιο των      διαφόρων σεναρίων που έχουν καταρτιστεί_βάσει          της
     προηγούμενης παραγράφου Δ .
     Ακόμη και με την εφαρμογή πολιτικής ελέγχου των εκπομπών , παραμένουν
     κίνδυνοι που συνδέονται με τις παρελθούσες και τις μελλοντικές εκμπομπές
     στην ατμόσφαιρα . Ως εκ τούτου , θα χρειαστεί να προσδιοριστούν μέτρα
      προσαρμογής ( δηλ . μέτρα για την προστασία των ανθρώπων , της ιδιοκτησίας
     και της γεωργίας ), για την αντιμετώπιση των κινδύνων αυτών . θα
     προσδιοριστεί η έκταση και θα εντοπιστούν γεωγραφικά οι βασικοί
      παραμένοντες κίνδυνοι και 6α αξιολογηθούν οι επιπτώσεις από πλευράς
     κόστους και χρόνου από τη λήψη διαφόρων μέτρων προσαρμογής . Τα μέτρα
     προσαρμογής θα χρειαστούν ιεράρχηση, ώστε να εξασφαλιστεί η μέγιστη
     δυνατή μείωση των παραμενόντων κινδύνων με τους διαθέσιμους πόρους , και
     ώστε η προσοχή να επικεντρωθεί σε βασικούς τομείς σπουδα ιότητας .
 ---pagebreak---                                            4
II - ΛΕΠΤΟΜΕΡΗΣ ΚΑΤΑΛΟΓΟΣ ΔΡΑΣΤΗΡΙΟΤΗΤΩΝ
     Η υλοποίηση του προγράμματος αυτού θα απαιτήσει μεταξύ άλλων και τις
     ακόλουθες δραστηριότητες :
     Λ ■ Πρόβλεψη εκπομπών και επιλογές για τη μείωση των εκπομπών .
         ι   Κατάρτιση προβλέψεων για τις εκπομπές κάθε αερίου θερμοκηπίου .
             Οι εκπομπές αυτές πρέπει να αναλύονται ( α ) κατά περιοχή ( β ) ανά
             πολιτικές , στρατηγικές και οικονομικές ομάδες .
         ίϊ 0 καθορισμός παραγόντων ( εκτός της άσκησης ελέγχου ) που είναι δυνατό
             να επηρεάσουν τις μελλοντικές εκπομπές . Εκτίμηση του κατά πόσο είναι
             πιθανοί και ανάπτυξη εναλλακτικών σεναρίων εκπομπών .
         ίίί Καθορισμός των διαθέσιμων επιλογών ελέγχου των εκπομπών για κάδε
             αέριο θερμοκηπίου . Εκτίμηση της έκτασης των ενδεχόμενων μειώσει:·, στο
             πλαίσιο των διαφόρων σεναρίων εκπομπής .
     Β . Εκτίμηση των επιπτώσεων των επιλογών ελέγχου των εκπομπών
         ί   Αξιολόγηση της πρακτ ι κότητας , του κόστους και του χρονοδιαγράμματος
             εψαρμογής για καθένα των μέτρων περιορισμού των εκπομπών .
         Ιί  Εκτίμηση των κοινωνικών και οικονομικών επιπτώσεων .
         ίίϊ Εκτίμηση των επιπτώσεων από πλευράς κατανομής ( α ) σε μεμονωμένες
             χώρες , ( β ) μεταξύ χωρών , ( γ ) μεταξύ πολιτικών και στρατηγικών
             ομάδων ,
     Γ . Δημιουργία   πλαισίου   για    τη   ουστηματοποίηοη  των  πληροφοριών   που
         προκύπτουν κατά τη διάρκεια του προγράμματος εργασίας
 ---pagebreak---                                          5
    Το πλαίσιο πρέπει :
    - να       προβάλλει     τις     συνέπειες   των    εναλλακτικών    μέτρων ,
        συμπεριλαμβανομένων του κόστους και των ενδεχόμενων οφελών ,
    - να ηροβάλλε ;      τις επιπτώσεις από τη λήψη μέτρων σε διαφορετικές
        χρονικές επιλογές ,
    - να προβάλλει την εγκυρότητα πιθανών αποφάσεων ( για τις στρατηγικές
        ελέγχου ή τις στρατηγικές προσαρμογής ),        λαμβάνοντας υπόψη τις
        αβεβαιότητες όσον αφορά τις προβλέψεις και τα διαθέσιμα επιστημονικά
        δεδομένα ,
 ■  - να προβάλλει την περαιτέρω έρευνα που απαιτείται για τη στήρ ·ξη των
         ληπτέων αποφάσεων .
Δ . Αξιολόγηση των στρατηγικών ελέγχου των εκπομπών
     ί     Καθορισμός των πιθανών θετικών αποτελεσμάτων που θα προέκυπταν από
           τις στρατηγικές ελέγχου των εκπομπών . Το έργο αυτό θα απαιτήσει μία
           κριτική ανασκόπηση των μηχανισμών που συνδέουν τις συγκεντρώσεις
           αερίων θερμοκηπίων με την πλανητική θέρμανση , με ιδιαίτερη αναφορά
           σε συστήματα ανάδρασης , τα χρονοδιαγράμματα και τις επιπτώσεις για
           τα περιφερειακά κλίματα .
     ΐΐ    Με βάση την κριτική ανασκόπηση , προετοιμασία μιας εκτίμησης των
           πιθανοτήτων των εναλλακτικών προβλέψεων και των επιπτώοεών τους . Η
           εργασία αυτή πρέπει να συστηματοποιεί τις απόψεις των κυριότερων
           εμπειρογνωμόνων και να κρίνει τη σκοπιμότητα του συγκεκριμένου
           καθορισμού πιθανοτήτων που να αντανακλούν την αβεβαιότητα των
           διαφόρων σεναρίων .
     ί ι ϊ Με βάση τις πληροφορίες αυτές , και τις πληροφορίες για τους
           περιορισμούς των εκπομπών ( Α ) και τις επιπτώσεις τους ( Β ), το
           πλαίσιο αποφάσεων που αναφέρεται στο σημείο Γ θα χρησιμοποιηθεί για
           να αξιολογηθούν το κόστος , τα οφέλη και οι άλλες επιπτώσεις των
           εναλλακτικών επιλογών ελέγχου των εκπομπών .
 ---pagebreak---                                              6
     Η . Αξιολόγηση των μέτρων προσαρμο γής
          ί     Ανασκόπηση των επ ι πτώσεων των διαφόρων επιπέδων θέρμανσης στην
                υποδομή και τον ανεφοδιασμό της Ευρώπης σε τρόφιμα * εντοπισμός άλλων
                βασικών επιπτώσεων . Αξιολόγηση των επιπτώσεων σε άλλες πολιτικέ ; και
                οικονομικές ομάδες κρατών .
          ιι    Ανασκόπηση των επιλογών για την αντιμετώπιση των ενδεχόμενων
                μεταβολών ( ι ) στην Ευρώπη ( π.χ , νέες καλλιέργειες , μεταβολή
                πρακτικών προγραμματισμού κλπ .).
          ϊίΐ Με βάση την αξιολόγηση υπό ( Δ ) και το πλαίσιο που αναφέρεται υπό
                ( Γ ),  εκτίμηση του κόστους και των οφελών από εναλλακτικά μέτρα
                προσαρμογής " εκτίμηση των πιθανοτήτων να αποδειχθσύν αποτελεσματικά
                τα εν λόγω μέτρα προσαρμογής , λαμβανομένων υπόψη των προβλεπόμενων
                επ ι πτώσεων .
III . ΚΑΤΕΥΘΥΝΤΗΡΙΕΣ ΓΡΑΜΜΕΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΥΛΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΤΟΥ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΟΣ
       Α . Κατά την εκτέλεση του προγράμματος αυτού η Επιτροπή θα λάβει πλήρως
            υπόψη τις άλλες σχετικές δραστηριότητες , τόσο σε κοινοτική όσο και σε
            παγκόσμια κλίμακα , όπως :
            - το ερευνητικό πρόγραμμα ΕΚ για την κλιματολογία και τους φυσικούς
               κ ι νδύνους ,
            - τα αποτελέσματα πρόσφατων διεθνών συνεδρίων ( όπως το συνέδριο για τη
               Μεταβαλλόμενη Ατμόσφαιρα , Τορόντο , Ιούνιος '88 ),
            - την ομάδα εργασίας υΝΕΡ / ΜΜΟ για τη μεταβολή του κλίματος ,
            κλπ .
            Προς το σκοπό αυτό η Επιτροπή θα δημιουργήσει το κατάλληλο πλαίσιο
             συνεργασίας με τους αρμόδιους οργανισμούς που ενέχονται σε τέτοιες
             δραστηριότητες .
 ---pagebreak---                                            •* 7
       Β . Επ ι κουρούμενη από την επιτροπή που αναφέρεται στο άρθρο 1 της απόφοιτης ,
           η Επιτροπή Οα καθορίσει τις διαδικασίες και τις συγκεκριμένες ράοε<ς
           του εν λόγω προγράμματος εργασίας , καθώς και τις πληροφορίες που θα
           πρέπει να παράσχουν τα κράτη μέλη .
           Οι αρμόδιοι οργανισμοί και οι κυβερνητικές υπηρεσίες των κρατών μ : .\ ών
           θα συνδεθούν με το πρόγραμμα εργασίας μέσω της ανωτέρω επιτροπής .
IV . Χρηματοδότηση του προγράμματος
     Οι πόροι που υπολογίζονται ως αναγκαίοι για την εφαρμογή του
     προγράμματος       ανέρχονται σε 6 εκατ . ΕΘΙΙ .
 ---pagebreak---                                   Σχέδιο
       ίΡηφισμα του Συμβουλίου για το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
                              την Κοι νότητα
 Το Συμβούλιο των Ευρωπαϊκών Κοινοτήτων ,
 Έχοντας υπόψη :
 τη συνθήκη για την ίδρυση της Ευρωπαϊκής Οικονομικής Κοινότητας,
 το σχέδιο ψηφίσματος που υπέβαλε η Επιτροπή ,
 Εκτιμώντας :
ότι η συνθήκη για την ίδρυση της Ευρωπαϊκής Οικονομικής Κοινότητας, όπως
 τροποποιήθηκε από την Ενιαία Ευρωπαϊκή Πράξη προβλέπει τη διαμόρφωση και
εφαρμογή μιας κοινοτικής πολιτικής για το περιβάλλον και ότι η ίδια η
συνθήκη προβλέπει επίσης ότι κατά την επεξεργασία της δράσης της στον
τομέα αυτόν , η Κοινότητα λαμβάνει υπόψη τα διαθέσιμα επιστημονικά και
τεχνικά δεδομένα και τα πλεονεκτήματα και τις επιβαρύνσεις που μπορούν
να προκόψουν από τη δράση ή την απουσία δράσης ,
ότι το παρόν ψήφισμα αντανακλά τις σκέψεις που διατυπώθηκαν στο ψήφι ¬
σμα της 19ης Οκτωβρίου 1987 σχετικά με το πρόγραμμα δράσης των Ευρω¬
παϊκών Κοινοτήτων σε θέματα περιβάλλοντος ( 1 ) δηλαδή από τη σκοπιμό¬
τητα της    ανάληψης δράσης σε κατάλληλο επίπεδο και την ανάγκη συντονι ¬
σμού των    δραστηριοτήτων σε διεθνές επίπεδο, της στάθμισης των πλεονε¬
κτημάτων    και επιβαρύνσεων των μελετώμενων ενεργειών και της κατάλληλης
τεχνικής    και πολιτικής προετοιμασίας της εν λόγω δράσης ,
ότι τα διαθέσιμα επιστημονικά δεδομένα, και ειδικότερα τα αποτελέσματα
από τα Κοινοτικά Προγράμματα Περιβαλλοντικής Έρευνας, δείχνουν ότι
η σύνθεση της ατμόσφαιρας μεταβάλλεται σημαντικά από ανθρώπινες δρα¬
στηριότητες και, σύμφωνα με τα διαθέσιμα κλιματικά μοντέλα, το γεγονός
αυτό μπορεί τελικά να συνεπιφέρει , μέσω του λεγάμενου "φαινομένου
θερμοκηπίου ", κλιματικές μεταβολές που συνεπάγονται σημαντικές επι ¬
πτώσεις στο περιβάλλον, στους ανθρώπους και τις δραστηριότητές τους ,
ότι , δεδομένης της φύσης και του μεγέθους των κινδύνων που συνεπάγε¬
 ται το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου είναι επείγον να εξεταστούν οι δυνατό¬
 τητες δράσης με στόχο την πρόληψη ή των περιορισμό των κινδύνων αυτών,
( 1 ) ΕΕ αριθ . Ο 328 της 7.12.1987, σ . 1 .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 2 -
ότι στα πρόσφατα διεθνή συνέδρια έχει επιτευχθεί ευρύτατη συναίνεση για
την ανάγκη της επείγουσας εξέτασης μέτρων για τον περιορισμό των εκπο^
μπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου ,
ότι , δεδομένης της συνθετότητας του φαινομένου θερμοκηπίου και των πο¬
λυάριθμων και εκτεταμένων συνεπειών τόσο του εν λόγω φαινομένου όσο
και των μέτρων πρόληψης και περιορισμού των επιπτώσεών του, απαιτείται
προσεκτική εκ των προτέρων εξέταση των πιθανών επιλογών πολιτικής , η
οποία θα έπρεπε να γίνει με κατάλληλες μεθοδολογίες , στις οποίες λαμβά-
νονται κυρίως υπόψη κατά τρόπο επαρκή οι αβεβαιότητες που παραμένουν
όσον αφορά πολλές πλευρές του εν λόγω θέματος ,
ότι έχει εξαιρετική  σημασία το να μπορεί η Κοινότητα και τα κράτη μέ¬
λη της να συμβάλουν  καθοριστικά στη διαμόρφωση και επεξεργασία; των
αποφάσεων πολιτικής  που ενδεχομένως να ληφθούν στα κατάλληλα διεθνή
πλαίσια προκειμένου  να αναληφθούν οι αποτελεσματικότερες ενέργειες
κατά των κινδύνων κλιματικών μεταβολών,
εγκρίνει την ανακοίνωση της Επιτροπής " το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
η Κοινότητα " και υιοθετεί τα κυριότερα συμπεράσματα και συστάσεις της ,
δηλώνει ότι η Κοινότητα οφείλει να δώσει μεγαλύτερη προσοχή στους
κινδύνους ενδεχόμενων κλιματικών μεταβολών που συνεπάγεται το φαινό¬
μενο θερμοκηπίου και οφείλει να συμβάλει ουσιαστικά στην προαγωγή
του προβληματισμού και της συζήτησης γύρω από τπθανά μέτρα αντιμετώ¬
πισης των     λόγω κινδύνων ,
προσυπογράφει γην πρωτοβουλία της Επιτροπής για την έναρξη προγράμμα¬
τος εργασίας σχετικά με την αξιολόγηση των επιλογών πολιτικής για την αντιμε¬
τώπιση των κινδύνων που συνδέονται με το φαινόμενο θερμοκηπίου και
εγκρίνει τους στόκους του προγράμματος αυτού,
καλεί   τα κράτη μέλη να συνεργαστούν ενεργά με την Επιτροπή για την
εκτέλεση του ανωτέρω προγράμματος εργασίας και να συντονίσουν στο
πλαίσιο αυτό τις σχετικές δραστηριότητές τους όσον αφορά το φαινό¬
μενο θερμοκηπ ίομ,
καλεί την Επιτροπή να υποβάλει στο Συμβούλιο και το Ευρωπαϊκό Κοι
νοβούλια έκθεση στα μέσα τομ 1 990 και , στα τέλη του 1991 , τελική
έκθεση για τα αποτελέσματα του εν λόγω προγράμματος εργασίας και τα
προκύψαντα συμπεράσματα .
 ---pagebreak---         COMISIÓN DE LAS COMUNIDADES EUROPEAS
                                      COM ( 88 ) 656 Fi Lan
               Comunicación de La Comisión al Consejo
" EL PROBLEMA DEL EFECTO INVERNADERO Y LA COMUNIDAD "
             Æy            A     \
            o il    •;>
            “-i SL .       '        I
            Vÿ ,-
              \^s. *• /
                       - «
 ---pagebreak---               Comunicación de la Comisión al Consejo
" EL PROBLEMA DEL EFECTO INVERNADERO Y LA COMUNIDAD"
 ---pagebreak---                                         ÍNDICE
                                                            Apartado   Página
                                                                    /·
RESUMEN EJECUTIVO Y CONCLUSIONES                              A-C        4-11
I.    INTRODUCCIÓN AL EFECTO INVERNADERO
      El efecto Invernadero en pocas palabras                 1-2      12-13
     Los gases de invernadero : fuentes de emisión y
      evolución de su concentración en la atmósfera           3-10     13-20
      Posibles consecuencias sobre el clima del aumento
      de la concentración de gases de invernadero            11-13     20-27
      Posibles repercusiones de los cambios climáticos       14-21     27-32
II . EL CONTEXTO INTERNACIONAL . PERSPECTIVAS
      Introducción                                               22     32-33
      La conferencia mundial de " Cambios en la Atmósfera "      23     33-38
      ( Toronto , 27 a 30 de junio de 1988 )
      Posibles avances en el futuro                          24-28      38-40
III . ANÁLISIS DE LAS MEDIDAS POSIBLES
      Introducción                                           29-31     40-41
      Actividades de Investigación                           32-36     42-44
      Medidas preventivas                                    37-42     44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 3 -
                                                     Apartado Página
     Adaptación planificada                           43-45   48-49
     Cooperación con los países en desarrollo            46 * 49-50
IV . CONCLUSIONES DE LA COMISIÓN                      47-58   51-54
ANEXO
La Conferencia " Villach "                               A       56
(Villach , Austria, 9 al 15 de octubre de 1985 )
El Simposio de la CEE sobre el "COg y otros gases
de invernadero "                                         B       57
( Bruselas , 3 a 5 de noviembre de 1986 )
Los seminarios sobre " Estrategias de adaptación a       C    58-60
los cambios climáticos " ( Villach , Austria , 28 de
septiembre a 2 de octubre y Bellagio , Italia , 9
a 13 de noviembre de 1987 ).
El informe de la Comisiôn Brundtland                     D       61
La resolución del Parlamento Europeo                     E       62
 ---pagebreak---                                 RESUMEN EJECUTIVO Y CONCLUSIONES
' A.     RESUMEN
  A.1 .      Introducc16n
             -                                                           ^
             EL 19 de julio de 1988 , la Comisión decidió crear un grupo formado por
             personas de distintos servicios para que presentase , a mediados de
             noviembre del mismo ano , un conjunto de ideas preliminares acerca de
             posibles medidas comunitarias contra el efecto invernadero .
             El objetivo del presente documento, basado en el trabajo de dicho grupo ,
             es ofrecer una visión general del tema y presentar sus conclusiones y
             recomendaciones referentes al trabajo que se ha de emprender
             inmediatamente , a las medidas que hay que adoptar urgentemente y al
             papel que puede desempeñar la Comunidad en el debate internacional de un
             tema tan complejo .
  A. 2 .     El efecto invernadero
  A. 2.1 .     Las condiciones climáticas actuales de la Tierra vienen determinadas
               en gran proporción por la composición de la atmósfera .     El vapor de
               agua , el dióxido de carbono ( CO^), el metano ( CH^), el óxido nitroso
               ( NjO ) , el ozono (0j >, y , desde hace poco , los CFC
               ( clorof luorocarbonos ), absorben parte de los rayos infrarrojos que
               emite la Tierra para compensar los que recibe del sol y los almacenan
               en la atmósfera .
  A. 2 . 2 .   El hombre está alterando la composición de la atmósfera a un ritmo sin
               precedentes . La concentración de los llamados " gases de invernadero "
               esté aumentando debido a la interferencia de la actividad humana en
                los ciclos biogeoquimi eos de dichas sustancias .    La envergadura de
               estas alteraciones es      tal que   puede suponer  importantes cambios
               climáticos .
               Actualmente sabemos que el equilibrio térmico de la Tierra está siendo
               modificado , lo que va a producir un fenómeno de calentamiento y
               posiblemente cambios climáticos relacionados con el mismo , según la
                importancia de esta alteración .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 5 -
A. 2 . 3 . El gas de invernadero más abundante es el C0?, emitido sobre todo por
            La combustión de combustibles fósiles (5 gigatoneladas de carbono al
            año ), de madera y por la descomposición de la biomasa forestal
            producida por la despoblación forestal ( entre 0,5 y 2 gijptoneladas de
            carbono al año ).
            El C(>2 es , en efecto, la causa de más del 50X del efecto Invernadero .
            Otro 25% del fenómeno se puede atribuir a loa CFC empleados en
            múltiples usos como aerosoles , aire acondicionado, disolventes ,
            material de embalaje y empaquetado, etc . El resto se le puede achacar
            al. metano ( CH^> procedente del ganado, campos de arroz , explotaciones
            de gas natural ,    combustión inadecuada de biomasa y carbón ; al óxido
            nitroso (^0) producido por la combustión de combustibles fósiles y
            por los abonos nitrogenados y al ozono troposférico procedente de los
            procesos fotoquimicos de la atmósfera contaminada . Las emisiones de
            " gases de invernadero " han registrado un aumento considerable durante
            las últimas décadas .
A. 2 . 4 .  Si nos fijamos en la evolución de los tipos climáticos mundiales ,
            podemos deducir que la Tierra va a ser sometida a un ascenso de las
            temperaturas medias de superficie que oscilará entre 1,5 y 4,5° C ,
            debido a la duplicación del equivalente de la concentración de gases
            de invernadero en la era pre-industr1al . Al ritmo actual , se espera
            que este fenómeno se desencadene antes del año 2050 .
A , 2 . 5 . Los patrones climáticos actuales no pueden ofrecer una evidencia clara
            y fidedigna de las posibles alteraciones climáticas derivadas del ya
            mencionado aumento de Las temperaturas de la superficie de la Tierra .
            Según estimaciones aproximadas, el aumento de temperatura en Europa
            podría ser superior a la media mundial .
A. 2 . 6 . Las repercusiones indirectas de tales cambios climáticos se podrían
            resumir del modo siguiente :
            - subida del nivel del mar ( entre 30 cm y 4,5 m . correspondientes a un
               calentamiento entre 1,5 y 4,5° C );
            - disminución de la cantidad de hielo marino ;
            - disminución de los recursos acuáticos en algunas zonas ;
            - alteraciones de la productividad agraria ;
            - repercusiones en la salud humana y en los sistemas ecológicos .
* Gigatonelada « 1D9 t * 1.000 millones de toneladas .
 ---pagebreak---                                                 - 6 “
  A. 3 .     EL contexto Internacional . Perspectivas
»
  A. 3.1 . En La "Conferencia Internacional sobre la evaluación del papel del COg
               y otros gases de invernadero en las alteraciones climáticas y sus
               repercusiones" (ViLlach, 9 a 15 de octubre de 1985 ) sC alcanzó un
               consenso    científico    acerca    de  los    hechos   básicos   del  efecto
               invernadero .
  A. 3 . 2 .   Las conclusiones de la Conferencia de Villach se ampliaron en un
               simposio de la CEE que se celebró en 8ruselas ( del 3 al 5 da noviembre
               de 1,986);     " El COg y otros gases de invernadero :          repercusiones
               climáticas y derivadas", y en un seminario en Bellagio (9 al 13 de
               noviembre    de    1987):   " Estrategias   de   adaptación a    los  cambios
               climáticos ".
  A. 3 . 3 . También la Comisión Brundtland incluyó el tema en su programa de
               trabajo . De acuerdo con sus recomendaciones se celebró en Toronto , del
               27 al 30 de junio , una " Conferencia mundial sobre los cambios en la
               atmósfera y sus consecuencias para la seguridad mundial ". En ella se
               aconsejaron , entre otras , las siguientes medidas :
               - Ratificar el Protocolo de Montreal sobre sustancias que destruyen la
                 capa de ozono . El Protocolo debería ser revisado en 1990 para
                 garantizar la eliminación casi total de las emisiones de CFC
                 totalmente halogenados para el año 2000 ;
               - Adoptar políticas energéticas que tiendan a reducir las emisiones de
                 COg y de otros gases traza para disminuir eL riesgo de calentamiento
                 de la tierra ;
               * De aquí al año 2005 , un objetivo de alcance mundial de los países
                 industrializados debería ser reducir aproximadamente un 20X de las
                 emisiones de COg y de otros gases de Invernadero .
               - Empezar los preparativos para una convención mundial .
               - Crear un Fondo Mundial de la Atmósfera .
  A. 3 . 4 . Uno de los resultados a corto plazo de estas actividades
               internacionales es el posible Inicio del proceso de preparación, ya er»
               1989, de un acuerdo sobre el efecto Invernadero que puede Incluir
               protocolos para limitar las emisiones de gases de invernadero .
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 7 -
A. 3 . 5 . Entre los próximos acontecimientos que van a desembocar en dicho
             acuerdo , hay que mencionar sobre todo :
             - el seminario internacional sobre derecho y política que se ha de
               celebrar en Ottawa a principios de 1989 ;
             - una conferencia política de alto nivel , que será organizada en el
               otoño de 1989 por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de los Países
               Bajos ;
             - la Segunda Conferencia Mundial del clima ( Ginebra, junio de 1990 );
             - la Conferencia Intergubernamental de Desarrollo en 1992 , que puede
               ser el acontecimiento culminante .
A. A.      PosibLes medidas
A. 4.1 .     Las medidas para luchar contra el efecto invernadero deben revestir
             carácter preventivo y / o de adaptación .
A. 4 . 2 .   Medidas preventivas son aquéllas que tratan de frenar las emisiones de
             gases de invernadero para así reducir los efectos previstos .
             En el caso del CO^,       los sectores en los que hay que actuar con
             prioridad son el energético y La silvicultura en las zonas tropicales .
             Algunos ejemplos    de medidas    en el   sector energético que pueden
             contribuir a limitar las emisiones de CO^:
             - aumentar el rendimiento energético ( tanto en La vertiente de la
               oferta como en la de la demanda );
             - pasar a utilizar combustibles que contengan menos carbono ( por
               ejemplo , gas natural en lug8r de carbón );
             - fomentar el uso de fuentes de energía renovables y el uso rentable
               de biomasa ;
             - fomentar el uso de energía nuclear segura .
             El impulso a las nuevas tecnologías de la energía como apoyo de estas
             medidas reviste una especial importancia .
             A largo plazo , los sitemaB energéticos no basados en el carbono pueden
             contribuir significativamente a frenar las emisiones de COg .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 8 -
           Está claro que no todas Las medidas mencionadas tienen el mismo grado
           de eficacia ; además , es preciso calcular su viabilidad económica .
           Las medidas en el ámbito de la silvicultura deberían ^orientarse a
           contrarrestar las actuales tendencias de despoblación forestal ,
           concretamente en las zonas tropicales . Esto supondría fomentar el uso
           de sustitutos de la madera , combustible de primer orden en dichas
           zonas , e impulsar prácticas agrícolas racionales , para que la
           expansión agrícola no implique la quema de grandes extensiones para
           obtener terrenos de cultivo .
A. 4.3 .   Es más difícil dictar medidas para reducir Las emisiones de gaBes de
           invernadero como el CH^ y el N^O, debido a la falta de conocimientos
           en lo referente a la emisión de estas sustancias .
           Sería necesario introducir medidas como las siguientes :
           ■ reducir al mínimo las pérdidas de CH 4. durante la extracción ,      el
             transporte y el uso de gas natural ;
           - reducir al mínimo las emisiones de CH^ de los vertederos ;
           - reducir al mínimo las pérdidas de N^O durante La combustión de
             combustibles sóLidos ;
           - estudiar la posibilidad de       mejorar las técnicas de gestión del
             ganado ,   de los campos de arroz y de Las zonas pantanosas , para
             reducir las emisiones de CH^;
           - estudiar    la posibilidad de     racionalizar el uso de abonos para
             reducir las emisiones de N^O procedentes de los abonos nitrogenados .
A. 4 . 4 . En lo que respecta a los CFC ,    debería ser viable la total eliminación
           de las emisiones de CFC para el año 2DQ0 ,       limitando su producción,
           recuperando ,   reciclando o destruyendo los CFC contenidos en productos
           ya existentes .
A. 4 . 5 . Pueden ser necesarias ciertas medidas de adaptación ( las destinadas a
           prevenir o a paliar los perjuicios causados por los cambios climáticos
           y los efectos derivados de los mismos ) para hacer frente a situaciones
           que resulten inevitables a pesar de las medidas preventivas .
           A estas alturas no es posible precisar qué medidas de adaptación serán
           necesarias en la Comunidad debido a la falta de una evaluación local
           fidedigna de las posibles repercusiones .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 9 -
          En general ,   las medidas de adaptación relativas a la subida del nivel
          del mar constarán de : construcción de barreras contra las mareas y las
          inundaciones , programas nacionales de seguros contra inundaciones ,
          construcción de pantanos ( para combatir el aumento de l£ salinidad),
          abandono de zonas desarrolladas situadas en terrenos bajos , nueva
          ubicación de las poblaciones en lugares no expuestos a riesgos y
          protección de los ecosistemas costeros .
          Es necesario profundizar más en las investigaciones para establecer
          posibles medidas en otros sectores como la agricultura y la
          silvicultura .
B.    CONCLUSIONES    SOBRE   EL  ESTA60   DE   LOS   CONOCIMIENTOS  ACERCA   &E  LA
      PROBLEMÁTICA DEL EFECTO INVERNADERO
B.1 . Las actividades del ser humano están alterando de modo significativo la
        composición de la atmósfera terrestre .
        Basándose   en   la  evolución de   los   tipos  climáticos mundiales ,  los
        cientiflcos han     llegado a    la conclusión de que si       se dobla el
        equivalente de la concentración atmosférica de CC^, se producirá un
        aumento de la temperatura media de La superficie que oscilará entre 1,5
        y 4,5°C . Este fenómeno puede suceder a mediados del próximo siglo .
        Si nos fiamos de los datos climáticos , el resultado del cambio en las
        condiciones climáticas medias mundiales quedará " fuera de la gama de
        climas que ha existido durante el pasado histórico y durante las eras
        geológicas recientes ".
B.2 .   En este momento ,      no se pueden calcular exactamente las distintas
        repercusiones de estas alteraciones climáticas y sus consecuencias
        socio-económicas . Sin embargo , todas las investigaciones incipientes
        realizadas al respecto revelan la existencia de riesgos alarmantes y de
        unas posibles consecuencias directas e Indirectas muy perjudiciales .
B.3 .   En los recientes encuentros internacionales se           le ha otorgado un
        carácter urgente al debate mundial del problema . Ha quedado muy claro
        que ha llegado el momento de poner en práctica soluciones viables al
        tiempo que se acelera el ritmo de las investigaciones .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 10 -
c.    CONCLUSIONES DE LA COMISIÔN
C.O.    A continuación se resumen Las principales conclusiones de este informe .
        En el capitulo IV de este documento se ofrece una descripción más
        detallada de las mismas .
C.1 . La Comunidad deberia aplicar el Convenio de Viena paré la protección de
        la capa de ozono y et Protocolo de Montreal sobre sustancias que
        destruyen la capa de ozono, adem|s de participar de forma activa en la
        negociación de dicho Protocolo .
C.2 .   La Comunidad deberla impulsar el Inicio de debates sobre la posibilidad
        de un acuerdo internacional para la futura protección de la atmósfera .
        Debería hallarse en condiciones de contribuir de modo significativo a la
        preparación y a la negociación de un acuerdo de tales características
        que podría fijar objetivos precisos para limitar las emisiones de gases
        de Invernadero y establecer medidas y programas de reducción de las
        mi smas .
C.3 .   Por lo tanto , la Comunidad va a tomar la iniciativa de lanzar un
        programa intensivo de estudio de las posibilidades existentes donde se
        evalúe la viabilidad , los costes y los posibles resultados de las
        distintas medidas para limitar las emisiones de gases de invernadero .
        El programa debería constar de varias partes esenciales :
        - creación y evaluación técnica de medidas y tecnologías destinadas a
           disminuir las emisiones de gases de invernadero ;
        - análisis de las repercusiones económicas , industriales ,   sociales e
           institucionales de dichas medidas y tecnologías ;
         - esquemas de actuación ,    estructuración y evaluación especialmente
           referidos a los posibles objetivos estratégicos para fijar un tope a
           la emisión de CC^.
 ---pagebreak---                                       11
      - marco de análisis de decisiones ;
      - crear y ponderar medidas de adaptación .
C.4 . La Comunidad y sus Estados miembros deberían, a partir de ahora,
      Incorporar a sus políticas ( energéticas o de cualquier otro sector
      relacionado con este tema ) el problema de los posibles cambios
      climáticos producidos por el efecto invernadero . Un enfoque preventivo   i*
      del asunto puede evitar costes más elevados en el futuro .
C.5 . Se deberían tomar más decisiones urgentes para reforzar y aumentar los
      esfuerzos ya existentes para ahorrar energía , mejorar el rendimiento
      energético , desarrollar nuevas fuentes de energía e investigar en el
      campo de la tecnología nuclear segura .
      Debería dársele un carácter prioritario al rápido desarrollo y al
      fomento de técnicas comerciales innovadoras en estos sectores .
      No cabe duda de que tales medidas están más que justificadas debido a
       las necesidades energéticas y medioambientales , a pesar de la falta de
      conocimientos que aún rodea a algunos aspectos científicos del fenómeno .
      La posibilidad de valorar las mejoras del rendimiento energético en lo
      que se refiere a la disminución del C02 resulta especialmente
       importante .
C.6 . La Comunidad deberla apoyar programas intensivos de investigación de
       todos los aspectos relacionados con el efecto de invernadero y lanzar
       nuevas tecnologías energéticas capaces de reducir las emisiones de COg .
                                                                             S
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 12 -
I. AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
   What the "greenhouse effect" Is in short
1. The climate conditions we experience on earth are due , among other
   things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
   composition . Without the atmosphere , the average surface temperature of
   the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .
   In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
   the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space , is largely governed
   by the composition of the atmosphere .
   Firstly water vapour , mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere , is an
   effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
   radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
   surface temperature of the earth .
   Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide ( CC^), methane ( CH^) ,
   nitrous oxide ( N^O) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs) have the property of
   being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
   retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
   infra-red radiation .
   Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
                  (1)
   by the earth .
   The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
   coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2. The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
   significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
   mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
   balance of the earth .
   Stratospheric ozone ( the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
   ultraviolet radiation from the sun .   Moreover ozone contributes to the
   absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
   contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere . Any change
   in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
   thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 13 -
    In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CC^
    CFCs, CH^, ^0, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
    gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
    and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
    depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
    This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect "
    because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
    incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
    radiation by the ground , warms the air and is then retained by the glass
    from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.  The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
    have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4.  In case of carbon dioxide ( CO ^ ) :
    a.  Emission sources :
        Most of anthropogenic CO^ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
         (around 5 Gtons* of carbon per year). Moreover a significant
        contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
        biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
        the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
        of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
         CO2 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
         increased in 25 years , since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
        more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
         Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to emission
        with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each, followed by gas with
         less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
         It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
         been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
* 1 Gton = 109 tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 14 -
The share of COg emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :
                CO2 emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                           and as X of world total
                              I           1950 I      1965   I     1980   I
I         Region              I Mt /y* I     X | Mt /y* I  % I Mt /y* I X I
I North America               I 723 I     44,7 I 1003 I 32,1 | 13801 26,7 I
| URSS and Eastern Europe     I 291    I  18,0 I 750 1 24,0 | 12511 24,2  I
I China                       I 23     I   1,4 I 178 1 5,7 1 439 1 8,5    I
| Western Europe              I 379    I  23,4 I 643 1 20,6 | 853 1 16,5  I
I Japan , Australia           I 45     I   2,8 I 137 1 4,4 | 300 1 5,8    I
I Developing Countries        I 92     I   5,7 I 250 1 8,0 | 631 1 12,2   I
I Others (worldwide gas       I 63     I   3,9 I 163 1 5,2 | 310 | 6,0    I
Iflaring , bunkers )          I        I       I        1    1        1   I
                              I        I       I        1    1        1    I
| World total                 I 1618 I   100   I 3126 | 100 I 51701100     I
I                             I        I       I        I    I        I    I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle "
            US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of COg emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 15 -
The trends of CC^ world emission from different fossil fuels for the
period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US DOE / ER-0239
report referred to above ) :
           5000 I                1              1             *•  -
           4000 _
           3000 _
       –                                               .••*•
        |> 2000 l _>^r           Co«'          X
                                                  / ' Uvt.iv'Lj.* -
         9                         , i I    *
       I 1000
           1000
       ~ 800 I                                                    :
        | 600 -X                                                  -
       “p 400 Ç                  .. x.x
                                           y
        °        -              ьру
            200 -             X
                               грХ
                       X•
                     /»
                    X»
            1001--1-1-I-
              1950             1960           1970         1980
     _Year__
The steep increase of yearly CO^ emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels . Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
    I Fuel                1 1 985 CO2 emissions in |
   I                      1 mi Ilion     tons carbon /y |
   I  gas                 1               807            1
   I  oi l                1              2189            I
   1  coal                I              2181            I
   1  gas flaring I                        52            I
   1 Total                I              5229            I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                        16 -
      Per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuels for different      countries
      are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
       !        Country            | Per capita CO2 emissions (tons   I
       I                           | of carbon per inhabitant )       I
       I     United States         !              4,9                 I
       I     German Dem . Rep .    1              4,9                 I
       I     Canada                1              4,4                 I
       I     Czechoslovakia        1              4,1                 I
       I     Australia             I              3,9                 I
       I     Soviet Union          I              3,3                 I
       I     Poland                I              3,0                 I
       I     Belgium               I              3,0                 I
       I     Germany , Fed . Rep . I              2,9                 I
      I      United Kingdom        I              2,5                 I
       I     Netherlands           I              2,5                  I
       I     France                I              2,0                  I
       I     Japan                 I              1,9                  I
       I     Italy                 I              1,5                  I
       I     Spain                 I              1,4                  I
       I     China                 I              0,5                  I
       I     Brazi l               I              0,3                  I
       I     India                 I              0,1                  I
       I     World average         I              1,0                  I
      Calculated from : Smith , I.M. ( 1988 ) : CC^ and climate change ;
      Draft technical review , EIA Coal Research , London , and UN
      statistical data
  b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
      Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
      CO2 has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
      There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
      was around 275-285 ppm . The rate of concentration increase for CO^
      has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
      year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                          17 -
          COg concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
          emissions, mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation, on
          the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans
          and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
          emissions and this leads to more C02 stored in the atmosphere.
5.    In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
    . a.  Emissions sources :
          CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
          as aerosol spray cans , air conditioning, refrigerators, solvents,
          packaging , etc .
      b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
          The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
          widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb and 0,37
          to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
          Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
          by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
          note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
          higher than that of C02, around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
          trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than C02 ' on a
          molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
          of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100
          years ).
*
   1 ppb = part per billion = 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 18 -
6. In case of methane ( CH ,) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
       paddy fields, natural gas exploitation , burning of biomass and coal .
       Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH .
                                                                          4
       cycle is not welt known .
       Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
       sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
       shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors * :
       Natural Sources (million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3.)
       Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50)
       Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
       Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
       Oceans                                 10 (+/T 3 )
       Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
       Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
       Man-Made Sources (million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( cattle . etc. ) 75 (+/- 35 )
       Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30 )
       Biomass burning                        70 (+/- 40 )
       Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
       Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                  D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 19 -
   b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
       Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
       0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
       northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983 ). Average yearly increase
       over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
7. In case of nitrous oxide (N^O) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
       fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
       seem also to give a significant contribution .
       Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
       Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
       is most difficult .     It is estimated that the overall emissions are
       as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
       brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
       authors ) :
       Natural Sources (million tons of N per year ) :
       Oceans and estuaries                    2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
       Natural soils                           6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
       Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
       Fossil fuel combustion                  4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
       Biomass burning                         0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
       Fertilized soils                        0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
       Cultivated natural soils                1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
       ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 20 -
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
         NgO atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
         290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .  The present rate of increase is
         around 0,25% per year .
 8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
     greenhouse gases is due to  the interference of human activities with the
     natural cycles . Yet there  are significant uncertainties concerning the
     quantitative relationships  between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
     observed increase of their  atmospheric concentrations .
 9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
     future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
     those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
     assumptions .
10 . It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential cliaate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However , very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
     From this point of view , uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds , vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for CC^, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, ^0 and 0^
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 21 -
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83 ) = 13%,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons = 19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4%, 2000 = 7.1% .   Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20 / GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .   However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                                   22 -
The results are summarized in next figure .
            Commitment to Future Warming In the WRj Scenario*
                WRI Scénario*
   14 0 *        Q Hl*h Emissions                                                                                            '
   13.0 -        i Bue Cac                                                     /                                      f-H .
                 jTT] Modes! Polides                                         g                                        » :■ .
   14 0 -             _ _ .                                                 /                                         IM-
                      Slow Bui!d*Up                                         B                                          I l^T
  r"'                                                                /                                                 Il
  i-                                                            /                                                      1}
  19.o .                                                                                ■ Islf j|
      01980          ––13000             iI      r~n
                                               2025  I    I
                                                                n2050    iI       1
                                                                                2075
                                       n
                                       fl       A pAl
                                                À   rb tTJ]
                                                        f771   JL
                                                               >V       JL
                                                                        A      £3
                                                                               R3 A Stow   Bufld-Up don
                                                                                     ®ow Bufld*Up
                                                                                     Stow            do« not
                                                                                                           not reach
                                                                                                           nol reach  double
                                                                                                               nweh double
                                        LJ          LJ ILaJ
                                                    U   LaJ £A£i\      ia
                                                                       MJCk          CO, within
                                                                                     COj
                                                                                     COj  within the  fortcut period
                                                                                                 the lorectst
                                                                                                      fortca»t prriod
                                                                                                               period
             Approximate year of commitment to warming
             equal to 13 to 43 degree! centigrade above pre -
             industrial temperature .
             Approximate year of commitment to wanning
             equal to 13 to 43 degrees
                                degree* centigrade above 19B0
             temperatures .
Source : Mintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
                WRI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                - 23-
                                                Energy Policies in the WRI Scenarios
                                                                        Related Energy Model Parameter Value
Base Case Scenario
• " Business- As-UsuaJ," the inertia] model of growth and
  change in the world energy industry
• No pólices to slow carbón dioxide emissions
• Minima] stxmuJus to improve end-use efficicncy                        (Rale of change • 0.8% per year)
• Modest stimulus for synfuels devclopment                              (Final Price - S3.15-S4.25 per C) in 2005)
• Minimal stimulus for development of solar energy                      (Final Price - $16.50 per GJ in 2025)
  systems
* No policy to limit tropical deforestation or to encourage
  reforestation
• Minimal environmental costs included in price of energy               ($0.30 per CJ for coal; SI .00 per Cj for synfuels)
High Emissions Scénario
• Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
• No policies to slow carbón dioxide emissions
• No stimuJus to improve end-use efficicncy                             (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coal                             (Rate of improvement - 0.75% per year)
• Strong stimulus for synfuels development                              (Final Price - S2.75-S3.50 per Gj in 1995)
• No stimulus for development of solar energy systems                   (Final Price - $20 per GJ in 2040)
« Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
  agriculture
• Token environmental costs included in price of energy                 ($0.15 per C) for coal; $0.50 per G] for synfuels)
Modest Policies Scenario
• Strong stimulus for improved end-use efficiency                       (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
• Modest stimulus for solar energy                                      (Final price - $15.00 per Gj in 2025)
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
  protection; more intensive rather than extensive
  agriculture encouraged
• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                     (S0.60 per GJ for coal; $1.50 per GJ for synfuels)
  prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
  fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scénario
• Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency                  (Rate of improvement ■ 1.5% per year)
• Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged                          (Final Price • $12.00 per GJ in 2000)
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
  protection
• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                   ($1.20 per CJ for coal; $3.00 per GJ for synfuels)
  discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                  Total Emissions of C02 in the WRI Scenarios (Gigatons of Carbon per Year)
              “1
              jQ J           WRJ Scuuriof
                             WRJ Scuurioi
                                                                                         /
                                                                                          S
                         B High Emissions                                            /
                          A Base Case                                             /
                    I     if Modest
                          if Modest Policies
                                      Policies                                /
                   |      • Slow Build-up
                          #                                                y'
       \
        J      M-
        U      16 .                                 /
       1 14 -                             /
                2. '                                   '                 * -•
                0-I                               -1-1-1-
                  19»                2000             2025             2050                20»
 ---pagebreak---                                                    24 -
 By a different approach . Dr. R . A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
 of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
 link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
 probabilities to the possible outcome .
 The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                            RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 IN °C)
      (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
      (B ) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY            EQUILIBRIUM |<( TRANSIENT
                                          EQUILIBRIUM
                                                   7.0
                                                           TRANSiENT)) (C    “C)) CLIMATIC
                                                                                  CL,MAT,C CHANGE
                                                                                                CHANGE
               - J l' d (3.0-3 .7 )_ _
      r42>*.-. -                                         \
     j                                             6.0 ••
     î                                                        (2.5-3. 1 )
                                                   6.0 - - ' ” _                        -' H
                                                   4.0 +
                                                       --                                             B
                            _               _          Jpci?-0~2-1
                                                            IM-LU) _ _ ._ L _. -8°               . 90 B
                                                                                                      B
                                                  3 -o r - r~~                                      i  <
                                                     „I                 BEST GUESS : .4 5
                                                                        BEST GUESS                    'r
                                                      sTL    ( 1 .0-1.1 )
                                                      ■ > U – i-rr rrr
                                                                              t_– LU.                 T
                                                         ‘a
     I                   III                                                           V
     rrh-ztz-r~±n-                                         .                        < .      ' nJ.v
       800       700       βόο I\
                           6Ô0         500          Λ*|\. 1695 1695 2005
                                                                      2005 2015
                                                                           2015 2025
                                                                                  2025 20352035 2045
                                                                                                2045
     'EQUIVALENT  C022 C0NC
       EQUIVALENT C0   C0NC (ppm
                            ( ppmvv))   !                   \\                          ‘‘      VEAR
                                                                                                YEAR
    I                    [                     / 2006 Х'ЧЧ\.
                                                       +2006
                                                       + 2016
                                                                                        I
                                        V          x +•'2026
                                                          2026
                                                                                   \i
                                      /               "2035
                                                      "2M5
                                                      + 2045
                                                                                                   \
                                                          YEAR
    (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
   emissions
~   T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
   increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CO^ concentration
- “ transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
   due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
   been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 25 -
        The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
        above mentioned evaluation :
           Given the range of scientific uncertainties , the warming to which
         we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
         outside this range is less than 1% .
       - The "best-guess" range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
         probability of warming within this range is 45% .
       - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
         best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 .  The presently available climate models predict ( with various degrees of
                                                                    (1 )
      uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts       :
      - Global-Mean Surface Warming ( very probable ). For a doubling of
        atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
        the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
        expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C .   The most significant
        uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course , the actual
        rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
        rate of greenhouse gases , natural fluctuations in the climate system,
        and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
        climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
      - Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ). Increased heating
        of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
        greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
        average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
        decreases in rainfall .
      - Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ).   As the sea ice boundary
        is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
        surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
        water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
        surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1 )
      Source : NRC ( 1987 ); Current Issues in Climate Change , National Research
                Council , Washington DC , USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 26 -
     - Sumer Continental Dryness /Warming ( likely in the long term ). Several
        studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ).   As the climate
        warms , the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ). Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere .   The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling wi l l lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that "the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects ( processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO , 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 27 -
     As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "C02 and other
     greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
     Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
            Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain , it is now
            believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
            produce a significant change during the 21st century .
          - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
            50 years .
          - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
            temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
            by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 . Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on "C02 and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        " The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
          global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years , while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C , sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986 ); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     . heating and therefore expanding the ocean water ;
     . melting of mountain glaciers ;
     . melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica ;
     . a possible (but unlikely ) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28 -
     A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
     avai table .
     The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
     seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference , June
     1988 ).
     A significant rise in sea level would :
     . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
     . accelerate coastal erosion;
     . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
     . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 . Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .  This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Hater Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes . As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption ;
     . power génération ;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the COg atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 29 -
into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .
The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :
. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
  regional level ;
. length of growing season;
. number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change" view : emphasises the significance of gradual
  increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
  long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
  agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
  unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
  from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
  flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
        . . below
summarised   . ,   (2) :
   changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
   plant growth rates ;
     Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
     Variations on Agriculture, Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
     and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 30 -
 - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
 - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality;
 - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers/
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics / water resources / hydrology/ pests and diseases
etc .
At present / there is uncertainty about the nature / the magnitude and
location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
  levels are high latitude / semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
  areas of Europe and North-Ameri ca .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
                                                       (1 )
  USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen          et al , show
  reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats,
  due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies , in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability , changes in regional production costs , changes
in regional and national food production, changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et a l ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 31
     In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
     give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
     effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
     about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
     detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
     systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19 . Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of      on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
       . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
         forest ecosystems ;
       . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
       . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
       . disturbance of timber- and woodproducts markets and trade;
       . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
         ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
         reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health .  It could in particular :
       . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
         temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
       . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme
         events );
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 32 -
      Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
      tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
      face health problems .
21 .  Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
      The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
        . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
        . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
        . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,
          resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity;
        . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
          reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
          could migrate ).
      The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
      thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
      Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
      coupled , both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
      capable of being modified by climate .
      However, it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
      fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
      overfishing .
 II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
 Introduction
22 .  Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
      équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
      déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
      Chamberlin , 1899 ).
      Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du COg par un
      réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 33 -
    Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
    milieux scientifiques à entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
    tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
    Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
    l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
    Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
    des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence, the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the " Villach " conference ( Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract COg
       rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on " CC^ and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change" (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987);
    . The Brundtland Commission' s report
    . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
     Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere, implications for global
security" – Toronto, 27–30 3une 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 34 -
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
     Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
     Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
         Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended, globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
       - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     " A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 35 -
Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of CO2 and other trace
gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is an imperative
goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
which would eliminate or greatly reduce C02 emissions and to studies
undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
Reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly/ the
industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way/ both
through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
modifications in supplies .
Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
related to reductions in COg and other greenhouse gases . A
challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally/
targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
reductions in COj and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency/ a
challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
Apart from efficiency measures / the desired reduction will require
 (i ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels/ ( ii ) reviewing
strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 36 -
   proliferation . If these problems can be solved/ through improved
   engineering designs and institutional arrangements / nuclear power
   could have a role to play in lowering Ct^ emissions .
 - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage / review and
   approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies / in addition to gains made
   through reduction of fossil fuel combustion/ to reduce ( 1 ) emissions
   of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
   environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
   tropospheric ozone; (iii ) other non-CO^ greenhouse gases .
   Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
   the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
   use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations /
   Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
   framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
   convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
   international exchange of information and support of research and
   monitoring , and should provide a framework for specific protocols
   for addressing particular issues, taking into account existing
   international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
   International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
   in 1989 , the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
   Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 37 -
Establish a   World Atmosphere Fund/ financed in part by a levy on
fossil fuel   consumption of industrialized countries / to mobilize a
substantial   part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan   for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government -to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme / the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
Increase significantly the funding for research / development and
transfer of information on renewable energy / if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
agreements .
Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Development's ( WCED ) report / " Our Common Future"/ including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
 Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts , monitoring/ research and analysis related to the changing
 atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
         and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
         Atmosphere * Implications for Global Security" (to be published in
         the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
         conferences mentioned under paragraph 26, and other future meetings
         dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
         establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
         changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         environment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation, already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 39 -
     - the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva, June 1990;
     - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
        which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist in :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
         increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
         technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
         on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 . Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
     ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
        "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
         climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
         other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
         This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
         impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
         extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
         international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                            40 -
           The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
           ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
           of the difference in regional impact should not , however, be allowed
           to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
           Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
           regions into "winners " or " losers ". This is not a "zero-sum" game .
           Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
           uncertain proportions ,"
 III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
 Introduction
29 .  Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
      international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
      the greenhouse issue .
      Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview, could
      include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
             emissions );
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
             to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
             preventive measures ).
30 .  Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
      ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international rlevel and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of C0^ emissions );
      (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
            water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 41
     ( c ) those of an intermediate character Ce.g . decisions on the energy mix
           to be adopted, taking account of (a ) and of particular European
           conditions ).
     The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
           increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
           ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
           will happen, when , where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
           uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
           Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
           could consider .
     (b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
           - which danger, when and where , one has to face and what
             consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
             large are to be expected;
           - how to implement at best the measures decided ;
     Therefore, the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two .
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---  Research activities
32 . Already since 1980 , the Commission of the European Communities is
     carrying out a research programme in Climatology, whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
     resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B)
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations, the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops , forests , water
           resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased COg and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridification of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - A3 -
     ( A) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
           upon agriculture and industry ( the impacts of the alternance of
           droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources, the impacts
           of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
           agriculture and industry ).
     ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
     ( 6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
           probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases, and likely to be
           affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
     ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community ,
           due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
           consequences for agriculture , consequences for cost line regions of
           the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
3A . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution ,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as CO^ is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques , processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 44 -
35 . Elimination of COg at the source could eventually become a new domain of
      resarch .   No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
     avai lable .
      New directions for research in this field should be explored .
36. Moreover, the management of the CO^ problem implies both the definition
     of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
     objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
     how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
     reduction .    The implementation action will have to determine the
     economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction , the
     allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
     institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
     System Analysis can, in principle , provide the adequate basis for
      looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
     possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
     Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
     environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
     Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
     systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
     The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
     should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
     energy related CO^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
     The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
     costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
     on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action ( greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37 . Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
     in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
     This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
     concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
     greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
     objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 45 -
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including , in case of
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39. Carbon dioxide (CC^) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I, COg emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at CO ^ emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO^
        There are several types of technical energy related measures that
        could curb CO^ emissions , as listed below .
        Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
        physical potential of COg emission reduction of a given measure and
        its economic viability .
        The following technical measures , which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce COg emissions from
        carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs, better insulation, more efficient cars , electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                               - 46 -
    “ improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration,
      introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
      high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);
b . Energy Supply
    - fuel switching to less COg emitting fuels (the relation of CO^
      emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
      the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
      follows : 121 , 100, 88, 58 );
    - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
      windpower , hydro, geothermal , photovoltaics );
    - increased use of nuclear power .
c . Biotic sources
    - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
      cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
      the CO^ atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO2 technology abatement
    - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
      technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
      be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
    - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
      forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
      carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing CC^ emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 47 -
   System analysis models have been extensively used to the past for
   exploring consequences of economic -energy-environmental related
   measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
   information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CO2 reduction
   goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
   technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
   objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
   a . Conserve forest resources
       - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
         developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
         cause further deforestation ;
       - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
         forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
         sustainable basis ;
       - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
       - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
       - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
         utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
       - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
         tropical regions ;
       - promote agroforestry/ especially in developing countries ,
   c . Natural ecosystem protection
       - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
          relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 48 -
40 . CFCs Missions
     Possible preventative actions are :
     a . Constrain use
     b . Constrain production
     c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, N20 émissions
     Actions which could be considered are :
     a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
     b . Minimize CH , losses from landfills .
                     4
     c . Minimize N^O emission from fossil fuels burning .
     d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
         cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
     e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
         N20 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 . The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
     greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
     feasible , could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
     measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 . Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
     impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
     levels .
     Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
     if it is believed that :
     - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
        to in the short term ;
     - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
        effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
        now, it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
        atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 49 -
     At this stage it is not possible to cover/ even in qualitative and
     simple way/ all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
     in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
     However , it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
     measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
44 . Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
     - Sea walls / flood barriers .
     - National flood insurance programmes .
     - Construction of reservoirs (to combat increased salinity ).
     - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
     - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
     - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 . Examples of aeasures which could be considered in order to adapt to
     impacts on agriculture are :
     - More efficient use of fertilisers .
     - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production ;
     - Changes of policy to maintain national food security ;
     - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
        control , water management , etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
46 . All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
     planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
     needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
     aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
     the greenhouse effect . In particular :
     a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
         prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
         deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
         genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                     50 -
b) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term  project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments  on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of  ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---  IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 .  The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
      protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
      that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
      application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision,
      Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 . The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
      renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
      deplete the ozone layer . The Protocol should be revised so that the
      CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
      recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .  The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
      possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
      the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
      to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
      include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
      greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
      programmes .
50 .  Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
      substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the feasibility ,
      costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
      emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
      international debate on the issue .
      The main areas of such programme should be :
        - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
           in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
        - analysis of economic , industrial , energy , social and institutional
           implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
        - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for COg emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 52 -
         A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
         this frame .
         The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
       “ establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
         probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
         benefits .
       - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
         unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
         decision analysis exercise .
     The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
     energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
     policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
     exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
     The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
     research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
     climatology and energy .
     Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem, the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                          53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources, use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of COg reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit CO^ emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     environment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
         which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
         for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
         precariously low, coastal states , etc . Such maping would form a
          reference basis against which policies could be evaluated .   It would
          certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
         developing countries .
       - The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
          account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
          for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
          modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
          in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 54 -
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         increased , in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                   - 55 -
                 ANNEX
Recent Major events on the greenhouse issue
                                (
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of CO., and of other greenhouse gases 1n climate variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP, WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
       long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
       as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
       structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
       planning - all based on the assumption that past; climatic data ,
       without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
       longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
       greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
       global climate in the next century ."
      "While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
       actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
       affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
       fossil fuels, and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
       little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
       magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
       atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
       ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea ice ,"
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 57 -
       "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
        into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
        policies on social and economic development , environmental
        programmes, and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
      "Public information efforts should be increased by international
        agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases, climate
        change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
        this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
      "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
        regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
        are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless, the understanding of the
        greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
        policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
        effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
        should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases ; climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Dr. K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC , DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 . It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric CC^ and other greenhouse gases.
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue , mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
          dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
          intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
          closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                         58 -
            It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
            necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
            makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   (Villach ~ Austria, 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to " start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ( thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
        after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
        of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
        emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
        greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2) Energy Policies
        Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
        energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
        efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing CC^
        emissions .   Research and development on alternative ( non-fossil )
        energy systems must be greatly intensified .
        ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
        Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation ,
        e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
        Forest Action Plan , 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
        because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture ,
 ---pagebreak---                                 59 -
energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
( A ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; NgO
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices, etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed in terms of Ct^ equivalence) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these , regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                              - 60 -
( 7) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities ,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes , atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP/ GEMS ( Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
   monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
    changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea - level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU , UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP ) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak--- D. The Brundttand Co»»1ssion's report
   The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
   the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
   body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
   the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
   promoting a sustainable development .
   Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
   Session in the fall of 1987 .
    This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
    international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
    It is suggested to consider :
       improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
     - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins /
       mechanisms / and effects of the phenomena ;
     - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
       of the causative gases ; and
     - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
       climate changes and rising sea level ."
     The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
     international convention on " management policies for all
     environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere ".
E. The European Parliament resolution
   The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
   resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of COg in
   the atmosphere :
   " The European Parliament
     - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
       research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
       of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
       B2-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up, which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator, will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and, in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 p. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution, provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since , contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;
2.  Calls upon the Commission , in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 63 -
 3. Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
     from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
     in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
     purification respectively;
 4 . Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation , for which the
     Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
 5 . Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
     put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
     countries ;
 6.  Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
     research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
     especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
     ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
 7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
     essential requirement for climatic stability;
 8.  Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
     the Northern hemisphere, which are largely responsible for
     jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
     given access to the latest technological know-how;
 9.  Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
     quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
     directly responsible - about the implications of the human
     activities in question , while explaining the need for effective
     measures ;
10 . Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
     climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
     a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 . Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
     its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---                                      1
                   Programa de trabajo de La Comisión
    sobre el estudio de Las di stintas políticas que pueden aplicarse
  para hacer frente a la " problemática    del efecto     de invernadero "
I. CONTENIDO DEL PROGRAMA
    Este programa ha de proprocionar los elementos necesarios para de ¬
    finir el papel potencial de la Comunidad y sus Estados miembros a
    la hora de establcer y fomentar en los foros internacionales perti ¬
    nentes ta medidas necesarias para hacer frente a los riesgos
    originadas por el efecto invernadero .
    Con este objetivo / este programa de trabajo tratará los siguientes
    temas :
    A. Determinación de las distintas políticas para evitar / reducir las
       emisiones de gases del efecto de invernadero
       Se determinarán las medidas necesarias para poder reducir las
       emisiones de distintos gases del efecto de inver¬
       nadero hasta alcanzar unos objetivos estratégicos . Esto supo¬
       ne que para cada gas del efecto de invernadero se
       llevará a cabo una valoración detallada de las distintas opcio ¬
       nes de las que se dispone para reducir la emisión        para cal ¬
       cular el nivel de redución de emisiones que se puede obtener
       con cada opción , asi como el paquete de medidas necesarias para alcanzar
       las redudones establecidas como objetivo estratégico . El poten ¬
       cial disponible para evitar / reducir las emisiones se estudiará
       en los siguientes sectores :
 ---pagebreak---                                     2
   - producción de energía ;
   - consumo de energía ( incluido el transporte );
   - producción industrial ;
   - utilización de los productos ;
   - actividades agrarias .
   Será necesario abordar el problema de manera adecuada para tener en. cuenta las
   distintas situaciones especificas de cada país u grupos de países .
   Concretamente , habrá que considerar los siguientes factores :
   - nivel de desarrollo económico ;
   “ políticas energéticas en vigor ;
   - geografia .
B. Implicaciones derivadas de las distintas opciones para reducir las enisiones
    Cada opción para reducir las emisiones se examinará con objeto de
   valorar los siguientes puntos :
   - Implicaciones técnicas e industriales ;
   - implicaciones económicas y financieras ;
   - implicaciones políticas , Institucionales y sociales .
C. Creación     fe un marco de análisis de decisiones
   Se creará         un marco que permita estructurar la información
   disponible sobre todos los aspectos del efecto Invernadero
    de forma que se puedan             determinar las ventajas proba"
   bles ( redución del riesgo de modificar el clima , etc ) de cada una
    de las distintas políticas . Este marco tendrá en cuenta :
   | y                 ^      f *
   - las emisiones y la reducción de las emisiones ;
   - las implicaciones que conllevan estas reducciones ;
   - los datos científicos disponibles sobre las ventajas potencia¬
       les de los controles de emisiones alternativas .
 ---pagebreak---                                - 3 -
   . Este marco se creará para recoger la incertidumbre sobre las eli ¬
     siones , la eficacia de los controles , los cambios climáticos y
     los efectos que tienen las emisiones sobre el clima , y además per ¬
     mitirá determinar los resultados más probables derivados de las
     diferentes actuaciones
     El marco también permitirá examinar las implicaciones que se de ¬
     rivarían de que la actuación en este área se retrase . El marco
     supondrá un Importante instrumento para estudiar las actuaciones
     y concentrar la Investigación futura en puntos clave de decisión
     al quedar estructurado el problema y haberBe terminado las áreas
     principales de Incertidumbre en las cuales los resultados pueden
     variar de manera más sensible .
D.   Estudio de las posibles ventajas de las distintas políticas me ¬
     diante la utilización del marco de análisis de decisiones y de ¬
     terminación del esquema evolutivo climático y el 'el impacto p^-o-
     vocado por la aplicación de las distintas opciones de control de
     emisiones .
     El marco se empleará para establecer los posibles resultados de
     las distintas opciones alternativas de reducción de emisiones ,
     así como sus pasos de aplicación ( esquema evolutivo ). También
     podrá indicar el grado de probabilidad de que las ventajas que
     se pueden obtener con estas opciones se lleguen a materializar .
E.   Determinación y estudio de las medidas de adaptación necesarias
     para los distintos esquemas evolutivos propuestos en el punto D .
     Aunque se apliquen políticas de control de las emisiones se man ¬
     tendrán aún una serie de riesgos procedentes de la9 emisiones del
     pasado y de las emisiones a la atmósfera futuras . Por tanto , ha ¬
     brá que establecer medidas de adaptación para hacer frente a es ¬
     tos riesgos ( por ejemplo, medidas para proteger al hombre , la pro¬
     piedad y la agricultura ). Se determinarán la magnitud y el empla ¬
     zamiento de los riesgos residuales claves , y se estudiarán las
     implicaciones de costes y tiempo de las distintas medidas de adap¬
     tación . Las medidas de adaptación gozarán de prioridad para garan ¬
     tizar que los riesgos residuales se reducen al mázimo mediante el
     empleo de los recursos disponibles , y que asimismo se preste es ¬
     pecial atención a las áreas que suscitan mayor preocupación .
 ---pagebreak---                                         4
II . LISTA DETALLADA DE ACTIVIDADES
     La ejecución de este programa requerirá , entre otras , Las siguien¬
     tes actividades :
     A. Previsión de emisiones y opciones de reducción de las mismas .
         1    Preparar una previsión de emisiones para cada, gas del " inver¬
              nadero". Estas emisiones han de analizarse por (a ) regiones, y
              (b ) por grupos políticos , estratégicos y económicos .
         1i   Determinar factores (dejando aparte la aplicación del control)
              que probablemente influyan .            sobre . las emisiones fu ¬
              turas . Valorar los grados de probabilidad e idear esquemas
              evolutivos de las emisiones alternativas .
     B. Evaluación de las implicaciones de las distintas opciones de
         control de ' emisiones
          I   Determinar la viabilidad, coste y pasos de aplicación de
              cada una de las medidas de reducción de emisiones .
          II   Evaluar los efectos . sociales y económicos .
          III Evaluar los efectos que estas opciones tendrán (a ) en los
              distintos países, (b) entre los distintos paí ¬
              ses, ( c ) entre las distintas agrupaciones políticas y
              estratégicas .
      C. Creación de un marco para integrar la Información recabada du
          rante el programa de trabajo
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 5 -
    Este marco ha de estar concebido para :               ,
    “ presentar Implicaciones de las distintas opciones , Incluidos
       costes y posibles ventajas ;
    - señalar        Implicaciones que se derivarían de la actuación en
       distintos momentos ;
    - evaluar la solidez de las posibles decisiones ( sobre estrate ¬
       gias de control o de adaptación ) teniendo en
       cuenta la poca seguridad de las predicciones y de los datos
       científicos disponibles ;
    - centrarse en la Investigación que sea necesaria para respaldar Las
       decisiones que haya que tomarse .
0 . Evaluación de las estrategias de control de emisiones
    I    Determinar las posibles ventajas que se puedan derivar de
         la aplicación de estrategias de control de emisiones . Esta la ¬
         bor exigirá que se lleve a cabo una revisión crítica de los me ¬
         canismos que relacionan las concentraciones de gas del " Inver ¬
         nadero" con el calentamiento del globo., y tratando en particular
          los temas de los sistemas de alimentación .de datos , los pa¬
         sos de aplicación y      las consecuencias que afectan a los
         climas regionales .
    II   A partir de la revisión critica, preparar un. estudio                 para
         determinar el grado de probabilidad de que las distintas predicciones al¬
         ternativas y de sus consecuencias . Este trabajo ha de recoger las
         opiniones de los principales expertos y ha de reflejar el grado de
         áocertldumbre de toA...distintos resultados .          .
         i                (   »
    üi A partir de la información obtenida sobre reducción de emisiones (A) y sus
         Implicaciones ^ IB ), el marco para tomar decisiones creado en el
         apartado C se empleará para evaluar los costes , ventajas y
         otras Implicaciones de las distintas opciones de control de
         emisiones .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 6 -
      E. Evaluación de las medidas de adaptación
         i    Revisar las : implicaciones que tendrán los distintos niveles de ca¬
              lentamiento sobre la infraestructura europea y su abaste¬
              cimiento alimentario ; Identificar otras implicaciones cla ¬
              ves . Evaluar los efectos que tendrán estas medidas sobre otras
              agrupaciones políticas y económicas de países .
         ii   Revisar las opciones que podrían
              aplicarse para responder a los cambios potenciales ( 1 )
              en Europa (por ejemplo, nuevas variedades de cultivos ,
              sistemas de planificación variables , etc ).
         iii A partir de la evaluación llevada a cabo en el epígrafe
              D y empleando el marco creado en el epígrafe C , evaluar
              los costes     y ventajas de las distintas
              medidas de adaptación ; teniendo en cuenta los efectos que se
              prevé que tendrá cada una de ellas; valorar el grado de
              probabilidad de que tales medidas de adaptación resulten
              eficaces .
XXI . DIRECTRICES PARA LA APLICACIÓN DEL PROGRAMA
      A. A la hora de ejecutar este programa la Comisión tendrá muy
         en cuenta otras actividades relevantes en este terreno lle ¬
         vada a cabo tanto en la Comunidad como en el resto del mun ¬
         do , tales como :
         - el programa de investigación de la CE sobre climatología
            y riesgos naturales ;
         - el resultado de las conferencias internacionales celebra ¬
            das recientemente ( tales como La conferencia sobre la
            Atmósfera en Proceso de Cambio , Toronto, junio 88 );
         - el grupo de trabajo del PNUMA / OMM sobre cambios            climáti ¬
            cos ;
         etc.
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 7 -
         A estos efectos / La Comisión establecerá Los lazos de cooperación
         adecuados con Las organizaciones pertinentes encargadas de ta -
         Les actividades .
      B. Asistida por el Comité mencionado en el articulo
         1 de La ftecisión / La Comisión definirá Los procedimientos y con ¬
         cretará los pasos que han de darse en este programa de trabajo /
         asi como La información que han de proporcionar Los Estdos Miem¬
         bros .
         Las organizaciones competentes y Los Ministerios gubernamentales
         de Los Estados Miembros participarán también en estos trabajos a
         través del Comité arriba mencionado . *
IV . FINANCIAMIENTO DEL PROGRAMA
     Se calcula que los fondos necesarios para la aplicación del programa
     ascienden a 6 millones de ECU .
 ---pagebreak---                                      Proyecto
                                        de
                   Resolución del Consejo relativa al " efecto
                           invernadero y la Comunidad "
El Consejo de las Comunidades Europeas ,
Visto el Tratado constitutivo de la Comunidad Económica Europea ,
Visto el proyecto de Resolución de la Comisión ,
Considerando que el tratado constitutivo de la Comunidad Económica Europea ,
modificado por el Acta Única Europea , dispone el desarrollo y la aplicación
de una política comunitaria de medio ambiente , y que el mismo tratado esti ¬
pula que para tomar medidas en este campo la Comunidad deberá tener en cuen¬
ta los datos científicos y técnicos a su disposición y las ventajas y perjui ¬
cios que pudieran resultar de su actuación o de la ausencia de la misma ;
Considerando que la presente Resolución se inspira en las consideraciones ex ¬
presadas en la Resolución de 19 de octubre de 1987 relativa a un programa co¬
munitario de medio ambiente ( 1 ), concretamente la conveniencia de actuar en
el nivel apropiado , así como la necesidad de una coordinación internacional
del trabajo , de evaluar las ventajas y los costes de las medidas consideradas
y de preparar adecuadamente dichas medidas desde el punto de vista técnico y
político ;
Considerando que los datos cientificos disponibles indican , en particular los
resultados de los programas de investigación en materia de medio ambiente
comunitarios , que las actividades del ser humano están alterando de modo
significativo la composición de la atmósfera y que , si nos basamos en los
modelos climatológicos existentes , esto
( 1 ) D.O. n° C 328 de 7.12.1987, pâg . 1
 ---pagebreak--- podría acarrear al cabo de cierto tiempo , debido al Llamado efecto invernade ¬
ro , modificaciones climáticas con importantes repercusiones sobre el medio am¬
biente , el hombre y sus actividades ;
Considerando que , teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza y las proporciones de los
riesgos que supone el efecto invernadero , es urgente examinar las posibles
medidas para prevenir o reducir dichos riesgos ;
Considerando que en las recientes conferencias internacionales se ha alcanza ¬
do un consenso muy amplio en lo que respecta a la necesidad de considerar ur ¬
gentemente medidas para reducir las emisiones de los gases que provocan el
efecto invernadero ;
Considerando que , dada la complejidad del problema del efecto    invernadero
y de las múltiples y profundas implicaciones tanto de este efecto como de las
posibles medidas para prevenir o paliar sus consecuencias , se impone analizar
un minucioso examen previo de las diversas opciones políticas mediante méto ¬
dos adecuados que tengan especialmente en cuenta las incertidumbres que aún
subsisten en torno a varios aspectos del problema ;
Considerando que es sumamente importante que la Comunidad y sus Estados miem ¬
bros se hallen en situación de contribuir significativamente a la reflexión
y a la elaboración de las decisiones políticas que se puedan tomar en los fo¬
ros internacionales apropiados para actuar del modo más eficaz contra los ries ¬
gos de modificaciones climáticas ,
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 3 -
Aprueba la Comunicación de la Comisión acerca del " problema del efecto inver¬
nadero y la Comunidad " asi como sus principales conclusiones y recomendaciones ;
Declara que la Comunidad debería prestar un interés creciente a los peligros
encerrados en los posibles cambios climáticos relacionados con el efecto in ¬
vernadero y contribuir de modo significativo a fomentar la reflexión y los
debates en torno a las posibles medidas para contrarrestar dichos riesgos ;
Aprueba la iniciativa de la Comisión de lanzar un programa de trabajo relati ¬
vo a la evaluación de las opciones políticas para enfrentarse con los riesgos
relacionados con el efecto invernadero así como los objetivos de dicho progra ¬
ma .
Invita a la Comisión a presentar al Consejo y al Parlamento Europeo , a media¬
dos de 1990 , un informe de los progresos realizados y un informe final de los
resultados obtenidos por el programa de trabajo y de las conclusiones extraí ¬
das , a finales de 1991 .