CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: fr
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: PROJET DE RESOLUTION DU CONSEIL CONCERNANT L' " EFFET DE SERRE ET LA COMMUNAUTE "

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
 ---pagebreak--- Disclaimer
Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 concernant
l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique européenne et de
la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, p. 1) modifié en dernier
lieu par le règlement (UE) 2015/496 du Conseil du 17 mars 2015 (JO L79 du 25. 3.2015, p. 1), ce
dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents classifiés présents dans ce dossier
ont été déclassifiés conformément à l'article 5 dudit règlement ou sont considérés déclassifiés
conformément aux articles 26(3) et 59(2) de la décision (UE, Euratom) 2015/444 de la
Commission du 13 mars 2015 concernant les règles de sécurité aux fins de la protection des
informations classifiées de l'Union européenne.
In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning
the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic Community and the
European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as last amended by Council
Regulation (EU) 2015/496 of 17 March 2015 (OJ L 79, 27.3.2015, p. 1), this file is open to the
public. Where necessary, classified documents in this file have been declassified in conformity
with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation or are considered declassified in conformity with
Articles (26.3) and 59(2) of the Commission Decision (EU, Euratom) 2015/444 of 13 March 2015
on the security rules for protecting EU classified information.
In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar
1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und
der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S. 1), zuletzt geändert durch die
Verordnung (EU) Nr. 2015/496 vom 17. März 2015 (ABI. L 79 vom 25.3.2015, S. 1), ist dieser Akt
der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in diesem Akt in
Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5 der genannten Verordnung freigegeben; beziehungsweise werden
sie auf Grundlage von Artikel 26(3) und 59(2) der Entscheidung der Kommission (EU, Euratom)
2015/444 vom      13.   März 2015     über die   Sicherheitsvorschriften für den Schutz von  EU-
Verschlusssachen als herabgestuft angesehen.
 ---pagebreak--- COMMISSION DES COMMUNAUTES EUROPEENNES
                                                 COM(88 ) 656 final
                                                 Bruxelles , le 16 novembre 1988
                           Communication au Conseil
                   L' EFFET DE SERRE ET LA COMMUNAUTE "
                  " concernant le programme de travail
   de la Commission en matière d' évaluation des options politiques
            permettant de faire face aux risques associés à
                                l "'effet de serre "
                                           et
                                      Projet de
                              Résolution du Conseil
          -  concernant (. '"effet de serre et la Communauté "
                       ( présentés par la Commission )
                                              ESI
                      Sort, /         ,"'o    jfej
                               ?;i IO
 ---pagebreak--- Projet de Communication de la Commission au Conseil
                     concernant
                ■L' EFFET DE SERRE
                 ET LA COMMUNAUTE "
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 2 -
                                   TABLE DES MATIERES
                                                             Paragraphe Page
RESUME ET CONCLUSIONS                                           A-C     4-12'
I.     INTRODUCTION AU PROBLEME DE L' EFFET DE SERRE
      Brève description de l' effet de serre                    1-2     12-13
      Gaz entraînant un effet de serre : sources d' émission   3-10     13-20
      et évolution des concentrations atmosphériques
      Conséquences climatiques possibles des concentrations   11-13     20-27
      croissantes de gaz entraînant un effet de serre
      Incidences possibles des changements climatiques        14-21     27-32
II . CADRE INTERNATIONAL ET PERSPECTIVES
      Introduction                                               22     32-33
      La conférence mondiale sur " Les modifications
      de l' atmosphère " ( Toronto , 27-30 juin 1988 )           23     33-32
      Les développements futurs                               24-28     38-40
III . EXAMEN DES ACTIONS POSSIBLES
      Introduction                                            29-31     40-41
      Activités de reserche                                   32-36     42-44
      Action préventive                                       37-42     44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 3 -
                                                              Paragraph   Page
      Adaptation planifiée                                              48-49
      Coopération avec les pays en développement                 46     49-50
 IV . CONCLUSIONS DE LA COMMISSION                           47-58      51-54
ANNEXE
La conférence de " Villach "                                      A        56
 ( Villach-Austriche , 9-15 october 1985 )
Le symposium CEE sur " le CO^ et les autres gaz entraînant 8           57
un effet de serre " ( Bruxelles , 3-5 novembre 1986 )
Les ateliers sur la " Définition de mesures permettant de '       C     58-60
faire face à la modification du climat " ( Villach - Austriche ,
28 septembre-2 octobre 1987 et Bellagio - Italie ,
9-13 november 1987 )
Le rapport de la Commission Brundtland                            D       61
La résolution du Parlement européen                               E       61
 ---pagebreak---                                            - A -
                                   RESUME ET CONCLUSIONS
 A.          RESUME
 A.1 .       Introduction
            Le 19 juillet 1988 , la Commission a décidé de créer un groupe
             interservice chargé d' avancer , pour la mi-novembre 1988, des idées
            préliminaires sur une éventuelle action communautaire contre
            " l' effet de serre ".
            Le présent document vise à donner un aperçu général de ce problème
            et à présenter des conclusions et des recommandations quant aux
            travaux supplémentaires à entreprendre immédiatement , aux mesures à
            prendre par priorité et au rôle possible de la Communauté européenne
            dans 1e débat international sur ce sujet complexe .
A. 2 .      L' effet de serre
A. 2.1 .    Les conditions climatiques qui prévalent actuellement sur la terre
            sont régies dans une large mesure par la composition de
            l' atmosphère .
           La vapeur d' eau, le dioxide de carbone ( CO^), le méthane ( CH^>, le
           protoxyde d' azote (f^O), l' ozone (Oj) et , depuis peu, les CFC, en
           absorbant une partie du rayonnement infrarouge émis par la terre
           pour équilibrer le rayonnement solaire , accumulent une partie de ce
           dernier dans l' atmosphère .
A. 2 . 2 . L' homme est en train de modifier , comme jamais auparavant , la
           composition de l' atmosphère . Les concentrations de tous les gaz
           entraînant l' effet dit "de serre " augmentent du fait que les cycles
           biogéochimiques de ces substances sont modifiés par les activités
           humaines . L' importance de ces modifications est grande en termes de
           changements climatiques possibles .
           Nous savons aujourd'hui que l' équilibre thermique de la terre se
           modifie et que ces modifications se répercutent inévitablement , en
           fonction de leur ampleur , sur le climat .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 5 -
 A. 2 . 3. Le principal gaz A effet de serre est le COg, dont les émissions
            sont principalement dues â la combustion de combustibles fossiles
            (5 gigatonnes de carbonne par an )
            Actuellement / le CO^ est responsable â un peu plus de 50 X de
            l' effet de serre . Les CFC utilisés dans les aérosols , les
            contionneurs d' air , les réfrigérateurs , les solvants , les
           emballages , etc. en sont responsables à 25 X.     Les autres coupables
           sont le méthane ( CH^), dont la production est liée à l' élevage, aux
           rizières , à l' exploitation du gaz naturel , â la mauvaise combustion
           de la biomasse et du charbon, le protoxyde d' azote (N^O) dont la
           production est liée â la combustion de combustibles fossiles et à
            l' utilisation d' engrais azotés et l' ozone troposphérique dû aux
           processus photochimiques dans l' atmosphère polluée . Les émissions
           de gaz entraînant un effet de serre ont augmenté de manière
           significative au cours des dernières années .
A. 2.4 .   Les résultats des modèles climatiques globaux permettent de conclure
           qu' un doublement de la concentration préindustrielle équivalenté des
           gaz entraînant un effet de serre provoquera une augmentation de
           l' ordre de 1,5 à 4,5° C de la température moyenne.de la surface de
           la terre .   Vu l' évolution actuelle , ce phénomène devrait se produire
           d' ici à 2050 .
A. 2 . 5 . Les modèles climatiques actuels ne permettent pas de procéder â une
           évaluation régionale fiable des modifications climatiques
           potentielles correspondant è l' augmentation moyenne précitée de la
           température en surface . Des évaluations approximatives montrent
           qu' en Europe , l' augmentation de la température pourrait être plus
           importante que dans le reste du monde .
A. 2.6 .   Les conséquences indirectes de ces modifications climatiques
           pourraient être résumées comme suit :
           - une élévation du niveau des mers ( de 30 cm h 1,5 m pour un
              réchauffement de l' ordre de 1,5 è 4,5°C );
           “ une fonte des banquises ;
(1)                      9
       1 gigatonne * 10    tonnes = 1.000 millions de tonnes .
 ---pagebreak---                                               6
              - une diminution des ressources hydriques de certaines régions ;
              - des modifications de la productivité agricole ;
              - une incidence sur la santé humaine et sur l' écologie .
A.3 .         Cadre International et perspectives
A. 3.1 .      Un consensus scientifique sur les éléments de base de l' effet de
              serre tels qu' ils ont été décrits dans le paragraphe ci-dessus a été
              atteint lors de la " conférence internationale sur l' évaluation et le
              rôle du CO^ et des autres gaz entraînant un effet de serre dans les
             variations climatiques et leurs effets corollaires ( Villach ,
              9-15 octobre 1985 ).
A. 3 . 2 .   Les conclusions de la conférence de Villach ont été développées lors
             d' un symposium CEE à Bruxelles ( 3-5 novembre 1986 ) sur " le CO^ et
              les autres gaz à effet de serre : effets climatiques et autres " et
              lors d' un atelier à Villach ( 28 septembre - 2 octobre 1987 ) et d' un
             autre atelier à Bellagio ( 9-13 novembre 1987 ) sur " la définition de
             mesures permettant de faire face â la modification du climat ".
A. 3 . 3 .   L' effet de serre a également été étudié dans le cadre des travaux de
              la Commission Brundtland .  Faisant suite aux recommandations de
             cette commission , une conférence mondiale sur " les modifications de
             l' atmosphère” et implications pour la sécurité globale a été tenue à
             Toronto ( 27-30 juin 1988 ). Les actions suivantes ont été
             recommandées :
           - Ratifier le protocole de Montréal sur les substances qui réduisent
             la couche d' ozone .  Le protocole devrait être revu en 1990 en vue
             d' assurer une élimination presque totale des émissions de CFC
             entièrement halogénés d' ici à l' an 2000 .
           - Mettre en oeuvre des mesures de politique énergétique visant â
             diminuer les émissions de C0^ et des autres gaz à l' état de traces
             et , partant , à réduire les risques de réchauffement global .
           - Fixer comme objectif initial global pour les pays industrialisés une
             réduction d' environ 20 X des émissions de COg entre 1988 et 2005.
           - Fixer des objectifs relatifs â l' amélioration de l' efficacité
             énergétique qui soient directement corrélés â une réduction du COg
             et des autres gaz à effet de serre .
           - Entamer les préparatifs d' une vaste convention globale .
 ---pagebreak---                                             - 7 -
            - Créer un fonds mondial de l' atmosphère .
 A. 3 . 4 .    A court terme , ces actions internationales pourraient déboucher sur
               l' ouverture déjà en 1989 du processus visant la préparation d' un
               accord concernant l' effet de serre et , à plus longue échéance , sur
               la mise au point de protocoles limitant les émissions de gaz à effet
               de serre .
A. 3 . 5 .     Les prochaines étapes essentielles pour la réalisation de cet accord
               seront probablement :
            - l' atelier international en matière de législation et de politique
              qui se tiendra à Ottawa au début de 1989;
           - une conférence politique à haut niveau qui sera organisée en automne
               1989 par le ministère néerlandais de l' environnement ;
           - la deuxième conférence mondiale sur le climat qui se tiendra à
              Genève en juin 1990;
           - la conférence intergouvemementale sur un développement soutenable
              qui aura lieu en 1992 et pourrait être le point cluminant de cette
              série de manifestations .
A. 4 .        Actions possibles
A. 4.1 .      Les stratégies de lutte contre l' effet de serre pourraient inclure
              des actions de prévention et / ou d' adaptation .
A. 4 . 2 .    l' action de prévention est celle qui vise à réduire les émissions de
              gaz à effet de serre et , partant , leurs effets prévisibles .
              Dans le cas du C0^, les domaines d' action les plus concernés sont le
              secteur énergétique en général et le secteur forestier des régions
              tropicales .
              Voici quelques exemples de mesures énergétiques susceptibles de
              contribuer à réduire les émissions de CO^ :
              - amélioration de l' efficacité énergétique (au niveau tant de la
                 demande que de l' offre );
             ~ utilisation de combustibles dégageant moins de carbone ;
                                                                                     /
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 8 -
            - promotion des sources d' énergie renouvelables et de l' utilisation
               soutenable de la biomasse ;
            • promotion de l' énergie nucléaire assortie de toutes garanties de
               sécurité .
            Dans ce contexte , le développement de techniques énergétiques
            innovatrices permettant de mettre en oeuvre de telles mesures revêt
            une grande importance .
            A long terme , de nouveaux sytèmes énergétiques non basés sur le
            carbone pourraient contribuer de manière significative à la
            réduction des émissions de COg .
            Toutes les mesures susmentionnées ne sont certes pas également
            efficaces . De plus , leur viabilité économique devra être
            soigneusement évaluée .
            En matière de politique forestière , il conviendrait de renverser les
           tendances actuelles à la déforestation, notamment dans les régions
           équatoriales . Pour ce faire , il faudrait promouvoir , d' une part des
           produits de substitution du bois , massivement utilisé comme
           combustible dans ces régions , d' autre part des pratiques agricoles
           soutenables ne subordonnant pas le développement agricole à
           l' incendie de larges pans de forêt .
A. 4 . 3 . Les actions qui permettraient de réduire les émissions de gaz tels
           oue le CH H. et le N.,0
                               c
                                   sont moins faciles à identifier , vu les
           incertitudes liées aux émissions de ces substances .
           Les propositions suivantes pourraient être étudiées :
           - Minimisation de la quantité de CH^ dégagée lors de l' extraction,
              du transport et de l' utilisation du gaz naturel ;
           - minimisation de la quantité de CH^ dégagée par les décharges;
           - minimisation des émissions de N^O liées à la combustion de
              combustibles fossiles ;
           - étude des modifications qui pourraient être apportées à la gestion
              du bétail , i la culture du riz et â la gestion des lagunes , en vue
              de réduire les rejets de CH^;
 ---pagebreak---                                             - 9 -
             - étude des modifications qui pourraient être apportées aux
               techniques de fertilisation en vue de réduire les réjets de N^O
                liés â l' utilisation d' engrais azotés .
 A. 4 . 4 .  En ce qui concerne les CFC / il devrait être possible d' éliminer
             complètement leurs émissions d' ici à l' an 2000 en interdisant leur
             production et en recapturant / recyclant ou détruisant ceux qui se
             trouvent dans les produits existants .
A. 4 . S.    Des mesures d' adaptation (visant à prévenir ou â réduire les effets
            négatifs des modifications climatiques et des phénomènes
            corrolaires ) pourraient s' imposer en vue de contrer les effets qui /
            en dépit des actions de prévention/ s' avéreraient inévitables .
            A ce stade / il n' est pas possible de détailler les mesures
            d' adaptation qui pourraient être nécessaires dans la Communauté vu
            l' absence d' une évaluation régionale fiable de ces effets
            potentiels .
            D' une manière générale / les mesures d' adaptation è la hausse du
            niveau des mers pourraient comporter la construction de digues de
            mer / barrières contre les inondations / la mise en place de programmes
            nationaux d' assurance contre les inondations / la construction de
            réservoirs ( en vue de combattre l' augmentation de la salinité )/
            l' abandon des terres basses exploitées / le transfert des populations
            loin des sites vulnérables / la protection des écosystèmes cêtiers .
            Des études supplémentaires devront être menées pour identifier les
            mesures d' adaptations qui pourraient être prises dans d' autres
            secteurs agricole et sylvicole .
B.          CONCLUSIONS CONCERNANT L' ETAT DES CONNAISSANCES AU SUJET DE L' EFFET
            DE SERRE
B.1 .       La composition de l' atmosphère terrestre est modifiée de manière
            significative par les activités humaines .
            Se fondant sur les résultats de modèles climatiques globaux , les
            scientifiques sont d' accord pour affirmer qu' un doublement de la
            concentration préindustrielle équivalenté de CC^ dans l' atmosphère
 ---pagebreak---                                         10 -
          fera augmenter de 1,5 à 4,5°C la température moyenne de la surface
          de la terre . Un tel doublement devrait être atteint endéans la
         première moitié du siècle prochain .
         Selon ces modèles , les modifications qui affecteront les conditions
         climatiques globales moyennes dépasseront "ce qui s' est passé au
         cours des temps historiques et des périodes géologiques récentes ".
 B. 2 .  Les différents effets de ces changements climatiques et leurs
         conséquences socio-économiques ne peuvent être évalués de manière
         détaillée et fiable à l' heure actuelle . Toutefois , les travaux
         préliminaires menés en la matière montrent que les risques sont
         dangereusement élevés et que les conséquences directes et indirectes
         probables peuvent être catastrophiques .
B. 3 .   De récents événements internationaux ont introduit un facteur
         d' urgence dans le débat mondial en la matière . Il est apparu
         clairement qu' il était grand temps d' élaborer des stratégies viables
        et d' accélérer les efforts de recherche .
C.      CONCLUSIONS DE LA COIWISSION
C.O.    Les principales conclusions du présent rapport sont résumées
        ci-dessous . Une présentation complète en est donnée au chapitre IV .
C.1 .   La Communauté devrait mettre pleinement en oeuvre la convention de
        Vienne sur la protection de la couche d' ozone ainsi que le protocole
        de Montréal sur les substances qui réduisent la couche d' ozone et
        devrait participer activement 1 la renégociation de ce protocole .
C.2 .   La Communauté devrait approuver l' ouverture de discussions sur un
        éventuel accord international en matière de protection de
        l' atmosphère . Elle devrait être prête à participer activement à la
        préparation et à la négociation d' un tel accord qui pourrait fixer
        des objectis spécifiques de limitation des émissions incriminées et
        définir des mesures et des programmes de réduction de ces émissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                - 11
  La Commission devrait donc se décider à lancer , dans les plus brefs
  délais , un vaste programme d' étude visant à évaluer la faisablité ,
  les coûts et les résultats probables des mesures éventuelles de
  limitation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre .
 Les principaux secteurs de ce programme devraient être :
 l' identification et l' évaluation technique des mesures et
 technologies capables de réduire les émissions des gaz à effet de
 serre ;
 l' analyse des conséquences économiques , industrielles , énergétiques ,
 sociales et institutionnelles des mesures et technologies précitées ;
 l' établissement et l' évaluation de scénarios , sur la base ,
notamment , des objectifs stratégiques possibles pour le plafonnement
des émissions de CO^ ;
 l' établissement d' un cadre d' analyse de décision ;*
 l' identification et l' évaluation de mesures d' adaptation .
La Communauté et ses Etats membres devraient désormais tenir compte
dans leurs décisions politiques en matière de politique énergétique
ou dans d' autres secteurs concernés ) des changements climatiques
potentiels liés â l' effet de serre . Ce faisant , ils éviteront des
coûts plus élevés à l' avenir .
De plus , une action immédiate devrait être lancée en vue de
renforcer et d' amplifier les efforts visant à économiser l' énergie ,
à améliorer son efficacité , è développer de nouvelles sources
énergétiques et è développer l' utilisation de l' énergie nucléaire
avec toutes les garanties de sécurité . Une grande priorité devrait
être accordée au développement et â la promotion accélérées des
technologies innovatives è l' échelle commerciale dans ces domaines .
Une telle action se justifie pleinement du point de vue tant
énergétique qu' environnemental , quelles que soient les incertitudes
liées à certains aspects scientifiques de l' effet de serre . Il
 ---pagebreak---                                     12 -
      serait particulièrement important de pouvoir quantifier les
      améliorations de l' efficacité énergétique en termes de réduction des
      émissions de CO^-
C.6 . La Communauté devrait soutenir de vigoureux programmes de recherche
      sur tous les aspects de l' effet de serre et devrait promouvoir de
      nouvelles technologies énergétiques pouvant limiter les émissions de
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 12 - t>-S
 I.   AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
     What the "greenhouse effect " Is In short
 1.  The climate conditions we experience on earth are due , among other
     things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
     composition . Without the atmosphere, the average surface temperature of
     the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .
     In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
     the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space , is largely governed
     by the composition of the atmosphere .
     Firstly water vapour, mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere, is an
    effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
     radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
    surface temperature of the earth .
    Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide ( CO^), methane ( CH^),
    nitrous oxide (NgO) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs ) have the property of
    being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
    retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as Idng wavelenght
    infra-red radiation .
    Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
    by the earth . ^
    The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
    coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2.  The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
    significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
    mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
    balance of the earth .
^ Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer") is a strong absorber of
    ultraviolet radiation from the sun . Moreover ozone contributes to the
    absorption of infrared radiation from the earth . Tropospheric ozone
    contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere .    Any change
    in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
    thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                          13 -
      In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of CC^,
      CFCs, CH^, NgO, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
      gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
      and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
     depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
      This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect "
     because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
      incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
     radiation by the ground , warms the air and is then retained by the glass
     from escaping again .
6reenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.   The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
     have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4 . In case of carbon dioxide ( CO^ ) :
     a.   Emission sources :
          Most of anthropogenic CO- emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
                          it       C
          ( around 5 Gtons of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
          contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
          biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity, most likely in
          the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
          of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
          COg world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
          increased in 25 years, since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
          more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
          Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to . emission
          with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each , followed by gas with
          less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
          It is estimated that since one century , around 170 Gt of carbon have
          been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
*               9
   1 Gton = 10    tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 14 -
  The share of COg emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
  parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
  following table :
                  CO2 emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                            and as X of world total
                                             1950 I       1965       I  1980
  I        Region               | Mt /y*  I     X  | Mt /y*      X ¡Mt /y* I X    I
  I North America               I 723     I  44,7  I 1003      32,1 | 1380126,7  I
  I URSS and Eastern Europe     I 291     I  18,0 I 750        24,0 | 1251 ¡24,2 I
  I China                       I 23      I   1,4 I 178         5,7 | 439 1 8,5  I
  I Western Europe              I 379     I  23,4  I 643       20,6 | 853 1 16,5 I
  ¡Japan , Australia            I 45      I   2,8 I 137         4,4 | 300 | 5,8  I
 ¡Developing Countries         I 92       I   5,7 I 250         8,0 1 631 ¡12,2  I
 ¡Others ( worldwide gas       I 63      I    3,9 I 163         5,2 | 310 | 6,0  I
 ¡flaring, bunkers )           I         !                          1      1     I
 I                             I         I                          1      1     I
 ¡World total                  I 1618    I  100   I 3126 100 I 5170(100          I
 I                            I          I                          I      I     I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle "
             US D0E / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka, Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of COj emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 15 -
 The trends of CO2 world emission from different fossil fuels for the
 period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US DOE / cR-0239
 report referred to above ) :
            6000 [         '           '             _
            4000 Η           ^
            3000 -
         i 2000 K.,'                                 -
         I 1000
         “ 800 -                                     ~
         ! 600                                       -
         Z *00 r                  ■/
         «        _
             200 \-      X
             100 L-_I_I-I-
               1950      1960        1970       1980
                                  Year
The steep increase of yearly CO ^ emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and /or solid fuels . Consequently CO2
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
     I Fuel         1 1 985 CO2 emissions in |
    I               Imillion   tons carbon /y |
    I  gas          1           807           I
    I  oi l         1          2189           I
    1  coal         I          2181           I
    1  gas flaring I             52           I
    1  Total        I          5229           I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         16 -
       Per capita CO^ emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
       are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
       I          Country          ( Per capita C0^ emissions (tons j
       I                            | of carbon per inhabitant )    |
              United States         |              4/ 9
              German Dem . Rep .    |              4,9
              Canada v              |              4,4
              Czechoslovakia       |               4,1
              Australia            |               3,9
              Soviet Union         |               3,3
              Poland               |               3,0
              Belgium              |               3,0
              Germany, Fed . Rep . |               2,9
              United Kingdom       |               2,5
              Netherlands          |               2,5
              France               |               2,0
              Japan                |               1 /9
              Italy                I               1/5
              Spain                I               1 /4
              China                |               0/ 5
              Brazil               |               0/ 3
              India                |               0/ 1
              World average        |               1/0
      Calculated from : Smith, X.H. (1988) : CO^ and climate change;
      Draft technical review, EIA Coal Research , London, and UN
      statistical data
  b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
      Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
      CO^ has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
      There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
      was around 275-285 ppm. The rate of concentration increase for CO^
      has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
      year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001%
 ---pagebreak---                                         17 -
          COg concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
          emissions , mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation , on
          the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks ( mainly the oceans
          and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
          emissions and this leads to more CO^ stored in the atmosphere .
 5.  In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) ;
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans , air conditioning , refrigerators , solvents ,
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0,21 to 0,23 ppb* and 0,37
         to 0,39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
         by several orders of magnitude lower than that of CO^, one has to
        note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
        higher than that of CO^, around 5-7X per year , the efficiency in
        trapping heat of some of them is 10,000 higher than CO^' on a
        molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
        of some of these substances is extremely long (up to mere than 100
        years ).
*
  1 ppb * part per billion s 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 18 -
6. In case of methane ( CH ^) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
       paddy fields, natural gas exploitation, burning of biomass and coal .
       Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH^
       cycle 1s not well known .
       Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
       sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
       shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons per year ) :
       Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (♦/- 3 )
      Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50)
      Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
      Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
      Oceans                                 10 (♦/- 3 )
      Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
      Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
      Han-Made Sources (million tons per year ) :
      Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc .) 75 (♦/- 35 )
      Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30)
      Biomass burning                        70 <♦/- 40)
      Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
      Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
      ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                  D0E/ NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 19 -
   b.   Atmospheric concentration trends :
        Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has Increased since old times ( from
        0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1 / 54 and 1 / 68 ppm In the southern and
       northern hemisphere respectively/ 1n 1983 ). Average yearly Increase
       over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1 / 1X .
7. In case of nitrous oxide ( N.,0 ) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Man-made emissions of N^O are mainly due to combustion of fossil
       fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils ( both natural and fertilized )
       seem also to give a significant contribution .
       Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
       Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
       is most difficult .      It is estimated that the overall emissions are
       as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
       brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
       authors ) :
       Natural Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
      Oceans and estuaries                      2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
      Natural soils                             6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
      Man-Made Sources ( million tons of N per year ) :
      Fossil fuel combustion                    4.0 (+/- 1.0 )
      Biomass burning                           0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
      Fertilized soils                          0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
      Cultivated natural soils                  1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
      ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on 6reenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 20 -
       b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
           NgO atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
           290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 . The present rate of increase is
           around 0,25X per year .
  8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
      greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
      natural cycles . Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
      quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
      observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .
  9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
      future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
      those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
      assumptions .
10 .  It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase 1n the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and Its timing .
     From this point of view, uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds, vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for Ct^, 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, NgO and 0^
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 21
   The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
   mentioned gases until the year 2C75 has been tentatively evaluated by
_ the World Resources Institute 1n terms of forecasts for the average
   warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
   about future developments from "do nothing " and high growth to
  voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
  The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
  page 23 .
  It should be underlined that It has not been taken account here of the
   likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
  The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy 1n all
  scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear In
  total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5X by 2025 . In other studies this
  share Is much higher , for example , IIASA = 23X , WEC ( 83 ) = 13%,
  Goldenberg = 7X , Edmons = 19X . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
  sees the share of nuclear In world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
  3.3X, 1990 = 5.4X, 2000 = 7.1X . Environmental costs for nuclear range
  from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
  $1.20/ GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
  Is assigned to renewable energies .
  This model as any other one suffers from both structural and Input data
  limitations . However the usefulness of such models is to help
  structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
  critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak---                                                        - 22 -
The results are summarized in next figure .
        Commitment to Future Warming in the WR1 Scenario*
            WUSawki
     I
    1W0                 I
                      3000        II    m | ]I    1I    P
                                                        I 3000 |I   ^
                                                                  3073
                                □ Ààà À                        À       9mm    Up 4– mi w*c*> double
                                                                       CO, «Mi ifce IWKMI
         Apprmdnate year of commitment to warming
         equal to 14 to 44 Mgrem centigrade above pre-
       " MmfriJ fpwihui.
         Apprestatale jm of cpmmllmmt to warming
       ^ ornai to 14 to 44       amtipadt abovt 1900
Source : Hintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
           URI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                     2 3-
                                                Energy Policies in the WR1 Scenarios
                                                                         Related Energy Model Parameter Value
  Base Cas* Smirto
  • "Burinssa-Aa-Usual." the inertial model of growth and
     diange in the world energy industry
 *   No jinttrlei to stow carbon dioxide emissions
  •  Minima! sdmuiu» to unprove end-uw efficicncy                       (Rate of change • 0.9% per year)
 •   Mode« stimulus for tynfuels drveiopmrnt                            (Final Pnce - S3.1S-S4.23 per C) in 2003 )
 •   Minimal stimulus for devtløpment of soler energy                   (Pinal Price • $16.30 per CJ in 2025)
     systems
 • No policy to ttmit tropical deforestation or to encourage
     reforms Li tion
 • Minimal environmental costa tnduded in price of energy               (S0J0 per C) fot coal $1.00 per C) for lynfucU)
 High Iixi–Wme Scenario
 • Accelerated growth in energy use Is encouraged
 • No policies to slow carbon dioxide emissions
 • No somatas to fcnprove end-use eífieiency                           (Rate of change - 0.7% per year)
 • Modest stimulus for inoeased uae of coal                            (Rate of improvement • 0.75% per year)
 • Strong stimulus for vynfuela development                            (Final Price - $2 75-53JO per C) in 1995)
 • No stimulus for devmoptnent of solår energy systems                 (Final Price - $20 per CJ m 2040)
 • Rapid deforestation and conversion of maigmal lands to
    agriculture
• Token environmental costs Included in price of energy                ($0.15 per CJ for coal; $0.30 per CJ for tyrtiucLs)
Modest Poliaes Scenario
• Strong stimulus for im proved end-use effidency                      (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
• Modest stimulus for solar energy                                     (Final price - S15.00 per Cj in 2025)
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecoeysterr
    protection, more intensive rather than extensive
    agriculture encouraged
• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                    ($0.60 per CJ for coal; $1.50 per CJ for synfuels)
    prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
    ruet-fwitching
Slow Build-up Scenario
• Strong emphasis placed on Improving energy efficiency                (Rate of improvement - 1.5% per year)
• Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged                        (Final Pnct - 512.00 per CJ in 2000)
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
    protection
• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                 ($1.20 per CJ for coal; S3.00 per CJ for synfuels)
    discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                     Total Emissions of C02 in the WR! Scenarios (Cigatons of Carbon per Year)
                  H1          WXJ Semarlet                                             /
                                                                                        J
                           B High Emissions                                        /
                  м        ▲ Вам Сам                                            /
                  y __     if Modest
                           3f Modes! Policies
                                      Policin                                /
                           • Slow Build-up
          k                                                          >
          Î -                                             //
                  2.                                                  *          '     –•
                  0 -|-|-1 -»                                    -1-1-
                    1TO             2000             2023            2000               2073
 ---pagebreak---                                                     - 24 -
  By a different approach . Or . R.A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
  of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK , has recently tried to
  link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
 probabilities to the possible outcome .
 The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                                 RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANOE (FROM 1985     19BS M°C)
       (B) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
       (B ) CLIMATE SENSITIVITY               EQUiuaRiUM UTRANSIENT) "C)        CL(MAT|C CHANGE
                                                                           (C ) CLIMATIC CHANGE
                                                            ^ «,0-3.7 )
                             – – – – – –– – – – Q – – – – – –                     –
       !                                              e.o +
                                                      S.0  •.
                                                              J2.SO.J ) _             _
                                                      B.0 --                                1 fl
                                                      4.0 - ■                                   B
                                                                                          .90   B
                                               «C -3.0
                                                                          ~r~~
                                                        J             BEST GUESS |: .45         ^
                                                                         _t_ _ : _J. [ T
      'n800
         i--zh-!
        800      700
                 700
                             –βΟΟ
                           I SÔO
                                rtr-îI-500JjL ^
                                          600
                                                                                         . J. .
                                                               1885 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
                                                               1985 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
               _ _ __  _ _ I  _  .   I.     I
      • EQUIVALENT
        EOUIVALENT COjCONC (ppmv)          ]J      sM \ \      \                    1    YEAR
                                                                                         YEAR
                                                         +2005
                                        /
                                                            2O2E ^\|
                                                         + 2015
                                                        + 2026
                                                        · - 2036
                                                            2035                      Ν.
                                   * β*                 - -2045
                                                            2045
                                   Μ                                                       \
                                                           YEAR
     (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
   emissions
- T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
   increase due to a doubling of the equivalent COj concentration
- "transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
   due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
   been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 25 -
         The following conclusions i.a . have been drown by the author of the
         above mentioned evaluation :
         "- Given the range of scientific uncertainties / the warming to which
          we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
          outside this range is less than 1% .
       - The "best-guess " range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today .  The
          probability of warming within this range is 45% .
       - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
          best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 .  The presently available climate models predict ( with various degrees of
      uncertainties ) the following climate and associated impacts ^ :
     - Global-Mean Surface Warming ( very probable ). For a doubling of
        atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
        the greenhouse gases )/ the long-term global-mean surface warming is
        expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C .   The most significant
        uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course / the actual
        rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
        rate of greenhouse gases, natural fluctuations in the climate system,
        and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
        climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
     - Global-Mean Precipitation Increase (very probable ).    Increased heating
        of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
        greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
        average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
        decreases in rainfall .
     - Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ). As the sea ice boundary
        is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
        surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
       water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
        surface air by as ouch as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1)
     Source : NRC ( 1987); Current Issues in Climate Change , National Research
                Council , Washington DC, USA
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 26 -
      - Summer Continental Dryness /Warming ( likely in the long term). Several
         studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase ( probable ). As the climate
        warms, the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ).   Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere . The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     " finger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that "the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects (processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WHO , 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 27 -
       As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on " COg and other
       greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
       Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
              Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain, it is now
             believed that Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
             produce a significant change during the 21st century .
           - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
             50 years .
           - Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
             temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
             by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 .  Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
      depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on " CO2 and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
         " The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
           global ecosystems , agriculture, water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years, while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C, sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); " Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     .  heating and therefore expanding the ocean water;
     .  melting of mountain glaciers ;
     .  melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica ;
     .  a possible (but unlikely ) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
         ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28 -
      A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level rise are
      avai labié .
      The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
      seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference, June
      1988 ).
      A significant rise in sea level would :
      . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
      . accelerate coastal erosion ;
      . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
      . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 .  Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .  This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Water Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in' precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes . As well as the Impacts that this will have on
     agriculture, water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption;
     . power génération;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the COg atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 29 -
 into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
 and indirect impacts of increasing COg concentration through climatic
 modifications .
 The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
 altering :
 . total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
   regional level ;
 . length of growing season ;
 . number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change " view : emphasises the significance of gradual
   increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
   long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
   agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
   unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
   from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
   flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
summarised below ^ :
"- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
    plant growth rates ;
      Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
      Variations on Agriculture , Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
      and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 30 -
  - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
  - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality;
  - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources , hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature, the magnitude and
 location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
   levels are high latitude , semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
   areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
   USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen       et al , show
   reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats ,
   due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community ,
regional and national economies, in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs, changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 31
      In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
      give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
      effects of climate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
      about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
      detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
      systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19 .  Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of CO2 on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
        . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
          forest ecosystems ;
        . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
        . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
        . disturbance of timber- and woodproducts markets and trade ;
        . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
          ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
          reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health . It could in particular :
        . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
          temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
        . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies ( extreme
          events );
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 32 -
        Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
        tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
        face health problems .
 21 .   Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
        The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning    :
          . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
          . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
          . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,
            resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;
          . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
            reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
            could migrate ).
       The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
       thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
       Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
       coupled, both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
       capable of being modified by climate .
       However, it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
       fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
       overfishing .
  II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
  Introduction
22 .   Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphire dans les
       équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
       déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius, 1896;
       Chamberlin, 1899 ).
       Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du CO^ par un
       réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 33 -
     Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
     milieux scientifiques ê entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
    tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
     Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
     l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
    Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
    des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the " Villach " conference ( Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract CO^
        rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on "COg and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change" (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bellagio-Italy , 9-13 November 1987);
    . The Brundtland Commission's report
    . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" ( Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
    Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere, implications for global
security" - Toronto, 27-30 iune 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 34 -
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
      Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
     Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
     "- Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended, globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
      - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     "A. Actions by Governments and Industry
       - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                                - 35 -
 - Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of COg and other trace
   gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
    Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of CC^ is an imperative
   goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
   50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
   developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
   which would eliminate or greatly reduce COg emissions and to studies
   undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
- Reduce CO^ emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
   the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly/ the
   industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way , both
   through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
   multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
   reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
   conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
   modifications in supplies .
- Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
   related to reductions in COg and other greenhouse gases . A
   challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
   efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
   precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
   detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
   of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally/
   targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
   reductions in COg and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency/ a
   challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
   supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
   Implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
  to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
   countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
  efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
- Apart from efficiency measures/ the desired reduction will require
   Ci ) switching to lower CO^ emittaing fuels, ( ii ) reviewing
  strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
  advanced biomass conversion technologies ; ( iii ) revisiting the
  nuclear power option , which lost credibility because of problems
  related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 36 -
     proliferation . If these problems can be solved, through improved
     engineering designs and institutional arrangements , nuclear power
     could have a role to play in lowering CO2 emissions .
  - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
  - Initiate management systems in order to encourage , review and
    approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies , in addition to gains made
    through reduction of fossil fuel combustion, to reduce ( i ) emissions
    of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
    environment can bear; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
    tropospheric ozone ; ( iii ) other non-CC^ greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
    the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
    use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations ,
    Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
    framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
    convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
    international exchange of information and support of research and
    monitoring, and should provide a framework for specific protocols
    for addressing particular issues, taking into account existing
    international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
    International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
    in 1989, the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
    Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva, June
    1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
    Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 .    These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
          /
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 37 -
 - Establish a   World Atmosphere Fund, financed in part by a levy on
    fossil fuel  consumption of industrialized countries , to mobilize a
    substantial  part of the resources needed for implementation of the
    Action Plan  for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
 - Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
    to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
    government -to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
 - Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
   within the World Climate Programme , the International Geosphere
   Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
    It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
    regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
   Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
   oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
- Increase significantly the funding for research , development and
   transfer of information on renewable energy , if necessary by the
   establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
   technology transfer with particular emphasis on the, needs of the
   developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
   the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
   agreements .
- Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
   cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
- Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
   proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
   Developments ( WCED ) report , " Our Common Future", including the
  establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
  enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
  sustainably .
- Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
  developing nations to participate in international mitigation
  efforts , monitoring , research and analysis related to the changing
  atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 38 -
        - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
          and the full Proceedings of the World Conference, "The Changing
          Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" (to be published in
          the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations, to the
          conferences mentioned under paragraph 26, and other future meetings
          dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
          establishment of environmental education programmes and public
          awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
          programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
          changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
          environment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
          and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
          given to establishing special groups in university departments for
          addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation , already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 39 -
     - the Second World Climate Conference , Geneva , June 1990;
     • the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development in 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 . The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse issue is concerned could
     probably consist 1n :
     a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries ;
     b ) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
     c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27.  Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
     term development .
28 . Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
     might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
     aspects of the issue .
     In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
     differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
     This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
     ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
        "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change, including policy responses to it , and a number of
         other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
         This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
         impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
         extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
         international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 40
            The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
            ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
            of the difference in regional impact should not , however, be allowed
            to detract from the emphasis on the comuni ty as a whole in facing it .
            Still less should 1t encourage any attempts to divide countries or
            regions into "winners " or " losers ". This is not a " zero-sum" game .
            Unless action is taken , it could be a negative sum game of highly
            uncertain proportions ."
  III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
  Introduction
29 .   Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
       international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
       the greenhouse issue .
       Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview, could
       include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures ( i.e. measures to curb greenhouse gases
              emissions );
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
              to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
              preventive measures ).
30 .   Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
       (a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of COg emissions );
     . (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
            water resources, agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes (conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 41
       ( c ) those of an intermediate character ( e.g. decisions on the energy mix
              to be adopted , taking account of ( a ) and of particular European
              conditions ).
      The group to which any particular measure belongs may determine the time
      necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
      Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
      conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 .  The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
      correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
      In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
      ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
             increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
             ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
             will happen , when , where . Now the " what " becomes increasingly
             uncertain as the range of the " when " and " where" becomes smaller .
             Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
             could consider .
      ( b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
             - which danger, when and where , one has to face and what
                consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
                large are to be expected;
            - how to implement at best the measures decided;
     Therefore, the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two .
     Only 1n this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process , by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 42 -
  Research activities
 32 .  Already since 1980 , the Commission of the European Communities is
       carrying out a research programme in Climatology , whose main research
       areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
       past , with climate modelling , with the man-induced climate change and
       with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
       resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
       was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
       the scientific consensus available at that date .
       Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
      greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
      understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
      vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
      climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
      aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
      effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 .  In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
      will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have,
      on important sectors of the European environment .
      Such intensified research should concern in particular :
      ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
            (prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
            risks for European coastal installations , the impacts on coastal
            ecosystems and coastal land use ).
      ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops, forests , water
            resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
            productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased Ct^ and
            climate change, the Impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
      ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
            aridif ication of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
            meteorological factors on soil degradation, the impact of
            progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 43 -
       ( 4 ) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
             upon agriculture and industry (the impacts of the alternance of
             droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources, the Impacts
             of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European - -
             agriculture and industry ).
      ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
      ( 6 ) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
             probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
             affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
      ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community ,
             due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
             consequences for agriculture , consequences for costline regions of
             the sea level rise , etc .
      Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
34 . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution ,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as CO^ is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques, processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific      energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use      of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity      of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be      gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                            44 -
 35 . Elimination of CO^ at the source could eventually become a new domain of
        resarch .   No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
        available .
        New directions for research in this field should be explored .
 36 . Moreover, the management of the CO^ problem implies both the definition
       of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
       objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
       how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
       reduction .    The implementation action will have to determine the
       economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction , the
       allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
       institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
       System Analysis can , in principle , provide the adequate basis for
       looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
       possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
       Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
       environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
       Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
       systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
       The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
      should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
      energy related CC£ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
      The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
      costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
      on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction)
37 . Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
      in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
      This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
      concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
      greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
      objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 45 -
38 .  The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
      concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including , in case of CO2
      reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39. Carbon dioxide (CO^) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , CO^ emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at CO^ emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO^
         There are several types of technical energy related measures that
         could curb CC^ emissions , as listed below .
         Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
         cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
         physical potential of CO^ emission reduction of a given measure and
         its economic viability .
         The following technical measures , which are listed without any
         ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce CO^ emissions from
         carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs , better insulation , more efficient cars , electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                    46 -
      - improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration,
        introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
        high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHO, etc .);
 b . Energy Supply
     - fuel switching to less CC^ emitting fuels (the relation of CC^
        emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
        the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
        follows : 121 , 100, 88 , 58 );
     - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
        windpower, hydro , geothermal , photovoltaics );
     - increased use of nuclear power .
 c . Biotic sources
     - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
        cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
        the CO^ atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
     - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
       technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
       be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
     - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
       forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
       carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing COg emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 47 -
     System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
    exploring consequences of economic -energy-environmental related
    measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
    information on the feasibility of measures to achieve CC^ reduction
    goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
    technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
    objective and hence should deserve more attention .
B. Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
    a . Conserve forest resources
         - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
           developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
           cause further deforestation ;
        - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
           forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
           sustainable basis ;
        - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
        - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
        - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
           utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
   b . Promote afforestation
        - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
           tropical regions ;
        - promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,
   c . Natural ecosystem protection
       - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
          relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 48 -
 40 .   CFCs Missions
       Possible preventative actions are :
       a . Constrain use
       b . Constrain production
       c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, N^O eaissions
       Actions which could be considered are :
       a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
      b . Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
       c . Minimize N^O emission from fossil fuels burning .
       d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
            cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
      e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
           ^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 .  The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
      greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
      feasible , could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
      measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 .  Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
      Impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
      levels .
      Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
      if it is believed that :
      - Impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
          to in the short term;
      - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
          effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
          now, it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
          atmospheric warming to which we are already committed).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 49 -
      At this stage it is not possible to cover , even in qualitative and
      simple way , all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
      in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
      However, it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
     measures for possible sea-level rise and for Impacts on agriculture .
44 . Possible adaptation aeasures concerning sea level rise could include :
     - Sea walls / flood barriers .
     - National flood insurance programmes .
     - Construction of reservoirs ( to combat increased salinity ).
     - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
     - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
     - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
A5 . Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
     impacts on agriculture are :
     - More efficient use of fertilisers .
     - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production ;
     - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
     - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
        control , water management , etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
A6 . All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
     planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
     needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
     aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
     the greenhouse effect . In particular :
     a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
         prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
         deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
         genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 50 -
b ) by taking into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    Medium-term project planning (e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base line data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 51 -
  IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47 .   The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
       protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
       that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
       application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision ,
       Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 .   The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
       renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
       deplete the ozone layer . The Protocol should be revised so that the
       CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
       recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .   The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
       possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
       the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
       to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
       include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
       greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
       programmes .
50 .   Therefore , the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
       substantial policy-options study programme to evaluate the feasibility ,
       costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
       emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
       international debate on the issue .
       The main areas of such programme should be :
         - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
            in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
            emissions ;
         - analysis of economic , Industrial , energy , social and institutional
            implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
         - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for CO^ emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 52 -
           A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
           this frame .
           The focus of the exercise should be on Europe in a first instance .
         - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
           probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
           benefits .
        - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
           unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
           decision analysis exercise .
      The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
      energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
      policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
      exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
      The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
      research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
      climatology and energy .
      Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem , the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO/UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                          53 -
53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
     efforts in the field of energy savings , energy efficiency improvement ,
     development of new energy sources , use of safe nuclear technology . The
     accelerated development and promotion of Innovative commercial-scale
     technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
     There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
     and environmental requirements , independent of uncertainties on some
     scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
     Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
     efficiency improvements in terms of COg reductions .
54 . The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
     relevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
     technologies having the potential to limit CO^ emissions .
55 . Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
     cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
     aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
     helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
     envi ronment .
56 . The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
     developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
     adaptation measures .
     In particular :
       - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
         which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
         for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
         precariously low, coastal states , etc . Such maping would form a
         reference basis against which policies could be evaluated . It would
         certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
         developing countries .
       - The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
         account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
         for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
         modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
         in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 54 -
         tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems . Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         Increased, in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57.  In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                  ANNEX
Recent aajor events on the greenhouse issue
 ---pagebreak---                                        56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of CO, and of other greenhouse gases In CUMte variations and
   associated impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP, WMO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
        long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
       as irrigation and hydro-power; drought relief; agricultural land use;
        structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
       planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
       without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
        longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
       greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
       global climate in the next century ."
      "While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
       actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
       affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
       fossil fuels , and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
       little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
       magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
       atmospheric CO^ concentration could have profound effects on global
       ecosystems, agriculture, water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 57 -
       "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
         into account the results of this assessment ( Villach 1985 ) in their
        policies on social and economic development , environmental
        programmes, and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
       "Public information efforts should be increased by international
        agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
        change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
        this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
       "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
        regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
        are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless , the understanding of the
        greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
        policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
        effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
        should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on "C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts ( Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Or . K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC, DG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 . It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists, who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric CO^ and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue, mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
          dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote ,
          intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
          closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                           58 -
         - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
             necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
             makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   (Villach ~ Austria, 28 September-2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to "start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        CD Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer ' (thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
       after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
       of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
       emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
       greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
       Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
       energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
       efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing Ct^
       emissions .     Research and development on alternative (non-fossil )
       energy systems must be greatly intensified .
       ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
       Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation,
       e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
       Forest Action Plan, 1987 . Such measures are currently necessary
       because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture,
 ---pagebreak---                                - 59 -
energy , soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
 ( A ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; N^O
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices , etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
 ( 5 ) River and Coastal Zone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise , river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases ( expressed in terms of        equivalence ) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these, regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                - 60 -
  ( 7) Monitoring
  The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
  considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities,
 both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
  changes, atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
 consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
 It is therefore recommended that WMO / WCP ( World Meteorological
 Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP/GEMS ( Unite Nations
 Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
 out a joint study of :
 - what new climate observing system activites are required for
     monitoring the changing climate ;
 - what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
     changing climate .
 The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
 ( 8 ) Research
ICSU, UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme (WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP ) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of Importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 61 -
 0 . The Brundtland Coamission 's report
     The World Commission on environment and Development has been created on
     the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
     body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
     the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
     promoting a sustainable development .
     Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
     Session in the fall of 1987 .
      This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
      international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
      It is suggested to consider :
      "- improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
       - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,
         mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
       - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
         of the causative gases ; and
       - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
         climate changes and rising sea level ."
       The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
       international convention on "management policies for all
       environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E. The European Parliament resolution
    The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
     resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of C0^ in
    the atmosphere :
    ■ The European Parliament
       - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
         research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
         of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
         82-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 62 -
  - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy, Research and
    Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment,
    Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
  A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
      temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
      atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
      burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
      deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up, which is greater at
     the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
     earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and, in some cases ,
     disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
     global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    'number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
     assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
     slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
     order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
     measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
     and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.   Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
     than those currently implemented to combat pollution, provided such
     measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
     propellants , since, contrary to earlier assumption, the latter are
     just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former;
2.   Calls upon the Commission, in future activities in the field of
     agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
     both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
     with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
     benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 63 -
  3.  Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
      from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy , possibly
      in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
      purification respectively ;
  4.  Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation , for which the
      Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
  5.  Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
      put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
      countries ;
  6.  Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
      research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology ,
     especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
     ocean-atmosphere interaction ;
  7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
     essential requirement for climatic stability ;
  8. Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
     the Northern hemisphere , which are largely responsible for
     jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
     given access to the latest technological know-how ;
 9.  Instructs its Members , in collaboration with the relevant scientific
     quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
     directly responsible - about the implications of the human
     activities in question, while explaining the need for effective
     measures ;
10 . Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
     climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
     a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 . Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
     its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---            Programme de travail de la Commission concernant l' analyse
           des options politiques permettant de faire face
                    aux risques associés à 1 " effet de serre "
 I . CONTENU DU PROGRAMME
Le présent programme de travail devrait apporter toutes données utiles
permettant de déterminer le rôle que la Communauté et ses Etats membres
pourraient Jouer dans la définition et la promotion , au sein d' un contexte
 International approprié , des mesures nécessaires pour faire face aux
risques associés à l' effet de serre .
A cette fin . Il portera sur les points suivants :
A. Identification des actions permettant de prévenir ou de
     réduire les émissions de gaz entraînant un effet de serre
Les mesures nécessaires pour réduira conformément aux objectifs
stratégiques fixés en la matière , les émissions des différents gaz
entraînant un effet de serre seront Identifiées .     Pour chacun de ces gaz ,
Il sera procédé à une évaluation détaillée des méthodes de réduction
existantes et du niveau de réduction associé à chaque méthode .     Les
possibilités de réduction ou de prévention des émissions seront étudiées
dans les secteurs suivants :
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 2 -
 - la production d' énergie ;
 - la consommât Ion d' énergie (y compris les transports );
 - la production Industrielle ;
 - l' utilisation de produits ;
 - l' agriculture .
 L' approche choisie devra tenir compte des différences spécifiques existant
 entre pays ou groupes de pays .   Elle devra notamment prendre en
 considération :
 - le stade de développement économique ,
 - la politique énergétique ,
- la géographie .
B. Implications des méthodes de réduction des émissions
Les méthodes de réduction des émissions seront évaluées quant à :
- leurs Implications techniques et Industrielles ,
- leurs Implications financières et économiques ,
- leurs Implications politiques , Institutionnelles et sociales .
  \
C. Mise au point d' un cadre d' analyse de la décision
Ce cadre permettra de structurer les Informations disponibles sur tous les
aspects de l' effet de serre et , partant , d' identifier les avantages
probables ( en termes de diminution des risques de modification climatique ,
etc. ) des différentes méthodes envisageables .    Il tiendra compte :
- des émissions et des réductions d' émission ,
- des implications de ces réductions ,
- des données scientifiques disponibles sur les avantages potentiels des
    différents modes de réduction des émissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 3 -
  Il sera conçu de manière A Intégrer le facteur d' incertitude attaché aux
 émissions , A l' efficacité des contrôles , aux changements climatiques et A
  leurs effets et permettra d' identifier les résultats les plus probables des
 différentes actions .
 Ce cadre permettra également d' étudier les Implications d' un report
 éventuel de l' action . En structurant le problème et en Identifiant les
 principaux facteurs d' incertitude qui Influencent le plus les résultats . Il
 fournira un outil majeur pour évaluer les actions et focaliser la recherche
 future sur des domaines clés .
D. Evaluation . A l' aide du cadre d' analyse de la décision , des avantages
     probables des différentes méthodes de réduction des émissions et
     établissement des scénarios climatiques et d' impact résultant de la mise
     en oeuvre de ces méthodes
Le cadre sera utilisé pour déterminer les résultats possibles des diverses
méthodes de réduction des émissions et de leur calendrier d' exécution
 ( scénarios ).  Il Indiquera également la probabilité relative des résultats
qui seraient atteints .
E. Identification et évaluation des mesures d' adaptation nécessaires dans
     le cadre des différents scénarios élaborés conformément au point D
     cl -dessus
La mise en oeuvre des mesures de réduction des émissions ne fera pas
dlsparaTtre complètement les risques résiduels associés aux émissions
passées et aux émissions futures qui ne peuvent être supprimées . Des
mesures d' adaptation ( actions visant A protéger la population , les biens,
l' agriculture et les ressources naturelles et économiques) devront donc être
prises . L' importance et la localisation des risques résiduels majeurs seront
définies , les coûts en argent et en temps des différentes mesures d' adaptation
évalués . Les mesures d' adaptation devront être classées par ordre de priorité
en vue de garantir que les ressources disponibkés'soient exploitées au mieux et
que l' accent soit placé sur les principaux domaines de préoccupation .
 ---pagebreak---                                                4 -
  I I . LISTE DETAILLEE DES ACTIVITES
 L' exécution du présent programme nécessitera entre autres les activités
 suivantes       :
 A. Analyse         des émissions et méthodes de réduction des émissions
  I)      Etablissement d' analyses       d' émissions pour chaque gaz entraînant un
         effet de serre . Ces émissions devraient être analysées
         par ( a ) réglons , ( b ) par groupes politiques , stratégiques et
         économ 1 ques .
 II )    Définition des facteurs ( autres que les mesures de réduction )
         susceptibles d' influencer les émissions futures . Evaluation de leur
         probabilité et établissement des divers scénarios d' émissions
         correspondants .
 III ) Identification des méthodes de réduction des émissions applicables
         pour chaque gaz entraînant un effet de serre .       Evaluation des
         réductions potentielles dans le cadre des différents scénarios
         d' émissions .
B. Evaluation des Implications des méthodes de réduction des émissions
 I)      Définition de la faisabilité , du coût et du calendrier d' exécution de
         chaque mesure de réduction des émissions .
 II )    Evaluation des effets sociaux et économiques .
 III ) Evaluation des effets sur la distribution ( a ) au sein de chaque pays ,
         ( b ) entre pays , ( c ) entre groupes politiques et stratégiques .
C. Etablissement d' un cadre permettant d' intégrer les Informations obtenues
      au cours du programme de travail
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 5 -
 Ce cadra devrait être conçu da manl ère à :
 - montrer les Implications des différentes actions , y compris les coûts et
     les avantages potentiels ;
- Indiquer les Implications des reports éventuels de l' action ;
- Indiquer le bien-fondé des décisions possibles ( en ce qui concerne les
    stratégies de réduction ou d' adaptation ) compte tenu du caractère
    Incertain des prévisions et des données scientifiques disponibles ;
- mettre en lumière les recherches ultérieures nécessaires pour pouvoir
    prendre les décisions qui s' imposent .
D. Evaluation des stratégies de réduction des émissions
 I)     Détermination des avantages potentiels qui résulteraient de
         l' application des stratégies de réduction des émissions . Ce travail
        nécessitera un examen critique des liens existant entre les
        concentrations de gaz provoquant un effet de serre et le réchauffement
        global , portant notamment sur les systèmes de rétroaction , le
        calendrier d' exécution et les Implications pour les climats régionaux .
Il )    Evaluation , fondée sur l' examen critique précité , de la vraisemblance
        des différentes prévisions et de leurs Implications .     Ce travail
        devrait Intégrer les avis des principaux experts et , si possible ,
        déboucher sur l' établissement de taux de probabilité reflétant le
        degré d' incertitude des différents résultats .
III ) A partir de ces Informations , et des Informations obtenues sur les
       réductions d' émissions ( A ) et leurs Implications ( B ), utilisation du
       cadre de décision visé au point C ) en vue d' évaluer les coûts , les
       avantages et les autres Implications des différentes méthodes de
       réduction des émissions .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - β -
 E. Evaluation des masures d' adaptation
  I)     Etude des Implications des différents niveaux de réchauffement notanment sur
          l' Infrastructure et les ressources alimentaires européennes ;
          Identification d' autres conséquences majeures . Evaluation des effets
         sur d' autres groupes politiques et économiques de pays .
 II )    Examen des méthodes qui pourraient être mises en oeuvre pour faire
         face aux changements potentiels ( I )            ( exemple : nouvelles
         variétés de plantes cultivées , nouvelles méthodes de planification ,
         etc . )
 III ) Détermination , grâce é l' évaluation visée sous ( D ) et au cadre de
         décision visé sous ( C ), des coûts et avantages des différentes mesures
         d' adaptation ; évaluation de l' efficacité probable de ces mesures
         d' adaptation é la lumière des effets prévus .
 III . LIGNES DIRECTRICES POUR L' EXECUTION DU PROGRAMME
A. La Commission tiendra compte , dans l' exécution du présent programme , des
autres activités pertinentes menées aux niveaux communautaire et mondial ,
tel les que :
 - Le programme de recherche de la CE en matière de climatologie et de risques
     naturels ;
 - les programmes du Centre Commun de Recherche concernant l' économie d' énergie ,
     l' énergie solaire et la conversion thermique , la sécurité nucléaire, etc. ;
 - les conférences internationales ( telle la récente conférence sur les modifi ¬
     cations de l' atmosphère , Toronto , juin 19C3);
 - les activités du groupe de travail PNUE /OMS sur les modifications
     climatiques ;
A cette fin , la Commission établira une coopération appropriée avec les
organisations concernées par ces activités .
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 7 -
B. Avec l' assistance du comité visé é l' article 1er de la décision , la
Commission définira les modalités et les mesures concrètes d' exécution du
présent programme de travail ainsi que les Informations que doivent fournir
les Etats membres .
Les organisations et ministères compétents des Etats membres seront
associés au travail par l' Intermédiaire du comité susmentionné .
IV . FINANCEMENT DU PROGRAMME
Les fonds qui sont considérés nécessaires à l' accomplissement du
programme s' élèvent à 6 millions d' ECUS .
 ---pagebreak---                                         Projet
                                          de
             Résolution du Conseil concernant " l' effet de serre et
                                   la Communauté "
 Le Conseil des Communautés européennes ,
vu le Traité instituant la Communauté économique européenne ,
vu le projet de Résolution de la Commission ,
considérant que le traité instituant         la Communauté économique européenne ,
modifié par l' acte unique européen , prévoit le développement et la mise en
oeuvre d' une politique communautaire en matière d' environnement et que ce
même traité prévoit que dans l' élaboration de son action dans ce domaine la
Communauté tienne compte notamment des données scientifiques et techniques
disponibles et des avantages et des charges qui peuvent résulter de l' action
ou de l' absence d' action ;
considérant que la présente résolution s' inspire des considérations figurant
dans la Résolution du 19 octobre 1987 concernant un programme d' action des
Communautés     européennes    en    matière     d' env i ronnement ( 1 ) , à  savoir
l' opportunité d' agir   au niveau approprié ,       ainsi    que    la nécessité de
coordonner les travaux au niveau international , d' évaluer les avantages et
les coûts des actions envisagées et de préparer l' action de façon adéquate
du point de vue technique et politique ;
(1)    J.O. n “ C328 du 7.12.1987 , p.1
 ---pagebreak---                                            - 2 -
   considérant    que   lee  données    scientifiques   disponibles ,  notamment   les
   résultats _ des  programme »  de   recherche en matière    creryJr_Pnnqmcnt  de  le
   Communauté . Indiquent que Is composition de l' atmosphère est en treln d' être
   sensiblement modifiée par lee aotlvlté » de l' homme et que , sur la oaee des
  modèles climatologiques disponibles » cela pourrait entraîner à t*rm« par un
   effet dit de mmrr *,         modifications du Climat St Par r»li            impacts
   Importante sur i '•nvir©nn©fi*»nt , sur l' homme et sur ses activité»!
  considérant que compte tenu de la nature et des dimensions des risques
  entraînée par l' effet de eerre . Il est urgent de procéder A un examen des
  possibilités d' action visant à prévenir ou à réduira cas risquas ;
  considérant qut lors ds réesntss conférences Internat lona les un très largs
  consensus s 'est dégagé concernant la nécessité ds considérer d 'urgence des
. mesuras visant A réduira Iss émissions des gas responsables de l' effet de
                      i
  serre i
  eoneldérant que compte tenu de le complexité du eujet " effet de serre ", des
  vsete» et multiplet Impi lest lone à la foie de cet effet et dee mesures
  envisageables pour en prévenir ou en mitiger les conséquences , un examen
  préalable approfondi des options politiques possibles , réalisées par des
  méthodologies appropriées oui tiennent notamment compte de manière adéquate
  des fnesrtltudss qui subsistent sur plusieurs aspeote du sujet en question ,
  set nécessaires
  considérant qu' il est de la plus haute Importance que la Communauté et ses
  Etate membres soient en mseure de donner une contribution fondamentale à la
  réflexion et à l' élaboration concsrnant les décisions politiques évsntuslles
  à prsndre dans lee enceintes Internationales appropriées afin d' agir de la
 manière la plus efficace contre lee rlequee de modification climatique .
 ---pagebreak---                                             - 3 -
 Accueille      favorablement     la  communication    de  la  Commission  concernant
 " l' effet de serre et la Communauté " et approuve les principales conclusions
 et recommandations qu' elle contient .
 Déclare que la Communauté devrait consacrer une attention grandissante aux
 risques des modifications climatiques possibles associés à l' effet de serre
et     qu' elle  devrait   contribuer    de   façon  substantielle  à  promouvoir   la
réflexion et la discussion concernant les mesures possibles visant à contrer
ces risques .
Accueille favorablement l' initiative de la Commission de lancer un programme
de travail concernant        l' évaluation des options politiques pour faire face
aux risques associés à l' effet de serre et approuve les objectifs de ce
programme .
 Invite     les Etats membres à coopérer activement         avec  la Commission dans
 l' exécution du programme de travail           susmentionné et à coordonner    leurs
activités concernées dans le domaine de l' effet de serre , dans le cadre de
ce programme .
Invite la Commission à présenter au Conseil et au Parlement Européen un
rapport d' avancement à la moitié de 1990 et un rapport final sur les
résultats obtenus par ce programme de travail et sur les conclusions tirées
à la fin de 1991 .