CELEX: 51988PC0656
Language: de
Date: 1988-11-16
Title: ENTWURF EINER ENTSCHLIESSUNG DES RATES UEBER DEN " TREIBHAUSEFFEKT UND DIE GEMEINSCHAFT "

ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (88) 656
Vol. 1988/0219
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Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983 concernant
l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique européenne et de
la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983, p. 1) modifié en dernier
lieu par le règlement (UE) 2015/496 du Conseil du 17 mars 2015 (JO L79 du 25. 3.2015, p. 1), ce
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In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983 concerning
the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic Community and the
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In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1. Februar
1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und
der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983, S. 1), zuletzt geändert durch die
Verordnung (EU) Nr. 2015/496 vom 17. März 2015 (ABI. L 79 vom 25.3.2015, S. 1), ist dieser Akt
der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in diesem Akt in
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sie auf Grundlage von Artikel 26(3) und 59(2) der Entscheidung der Kommission (EU, Euratom)
2015/444 vom      13.   März 2015     über die   Sicherheitsvorschriften für den Schutz von  EU-
Verschlusssachen als herabgestuft angesehen.
 ---pagebreak--- KOMMISSION DER EUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFTEN
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                              MITTEILUNG AN DEN RAT
             " Der Treibhauseffekt und die Gemeinschaft "
                                    betreffend   das
           Arbeitsprogramm der Kommission zur Beurteilung der
           politischen Optionen zur Verringerung der mit dem
                    "Treibhauseffekt " verbundenen Risiken
                                          und
                                    Entwurf einer
                             ENTSCHLIESSUNG DES RATES
                       über den      "Treibhauseffekt und
                                 die Gemeinschaft "
                        ( Von der Kommission vorgelegt )
 ---pagebreak--- Entwurf einer Mitteilung der Kommission an den Rat :
                ■ DER TREIBHAUSEFFEKT
                UND DIE 6EMEINSCHAFT"
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 2 -
                                         INHALT
                                                            Absatz  Seite
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UNO SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN                      A-C     4-11
I.     EINFÜHRUNG IN DIE PROBLEMATIK DES TREIBHAUSEFFEKTES
       Der Treibhauseffekt kurz gefaßt                          1-2 12-13
      Treibhausgase : Emissionsquellen und Tendenzen der      3-10  13-20
      atmosphärischen Konzentration
      Potentielle Auswirkungen zunehmender Treibhausgaskon-   11-13 20-27
      zentrationen auf das Klima
      Potentielle Auswirkungen von Klimaänderung             14-21  27-32
II . DEP INTERNATIONALE RAHMEN UND PERSPEKTIVEN
      Einleitung                                                 22 32-33
      Die weltweite Konferenz über " The Changing                23 33-38
      Atmosphère " ( Toronto , 27.-30 . Juni 1980
      Mögliche künftige Entwicklungen                        24-28  38-40
III . ÜBERBLICK ÜBER MÖGLICHE MASSNAHMEN
      Einleitung                                             29-31  4C-41
      Forschungstatigkeiten                                  32-36  42-44
      l/orbeuqende Maßnahmen
      Vorbeugende  Maftnahmen                                37-42  44-48
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 3 -
                                                            Absatz Seite
     Geplante Anpassungsmaßnahmen                           43-45  48-49
     Zusammenarbeit mit Entwicklungsländern                    46  49-50
IV . SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN OER KOMMISSION                      47-58  51-54
ANHANG
Die " Villacher " Konferenz                                     A    56
(Villach-Österreich , 9.-15 . Oktober 1985 )
Das EWG-Symposium uber "CO^ and other greenhouse gases"         B    57
( Brussel , 3.-5 . November 1986 )
Der Workshop " Developing policies for responding               C  58-60
to climatic change " ( Villach - Österreich , 28.September-
2 . Oktober 1987 und Bellagio - Italien ,
9.-13 . November 1987 )
Der Bericht der Brundtland Kommission                           D    61
Entschließung des Europäischen Parlaments                       E    61
 ---pagebreak---                                         • 4 ~
                      ZUSAMMENFASSUNG UND SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN
 A.      ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
 A.1 .   Einleitung
         Am 19 . Juli 1988 beschloß die Kommission, eine interdirektionale
         Gruppe zu bilden , die bis Mitte November 1988 erste Gedanken für
         eine mögliche Gemeinschaftsaktion im Hinblick auf den
         " Treibhausef fekt " entwickeln soll .
         Ziel dieses Dokuments ist es , einen Überblick über diese Problematik
         zu vermitteln und Schlußfolgerungen und Empfehlungen für unmittelbar
        aufzunehmende Arbeiten , dringend einzuleitende Maßnahmen und die
        mögliche Rolte der Europäischen Gemeinschaft in der internationalen
        Diskussion um dieses komplexe Thema zu unterbreiten .
A.2 .   Der Treibhausef fekt
A.2.1 . Die derzeitigen klimatischen Bedingungen der Erde werden weitgehend
        durch die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre bestimmt .
        Wasserdampf , Kohlendioxid (CO^), Methan ( CH^), Distickstoffoxid
        (N^O), Ozon (07 ) und, neuerdings Fluor-Chlor-Kohlenwasserstof fe
        ( FCKW ) absorbieren einen Teil der Infrarotstrahlung , die die Erde
        zur Kompensation der eintreffenden Sonnenstrahlen erzeugt , und
        speichern diese teilweise in der Atmosphäre .
A.2.2 . Der Mensch verändert heute mit einer nie dagewesenen Geschwindigkeit
        die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre . Konzentrationen sämtlicher
        sogenannter " Treibhausgase " sind immer mehr durch den Einfluß
        menschlicher Aktivitäten auf die biogeochemischen Zyklen dieser
        Stoffe bedingt . Diese Einflüsse erreichen ein solches Ausmaß, daß
        sie möglicherweise zu wesentlichen Klimaänderungen führen können .
        Wir wissen heute , daß der Wärmehaushalt der Erde eine Veränderung
        durchläuft und sich daraus je nach Umfang der Umstellungen
        unweigerlich auch Klimaänderungen ergeben werden .
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 5 -
 A.2.3. Das wichtigste Treibhausgas ist CO ^ dessen Emissionen hauptsächlich
           durch die Verwendung fossiler Brennstoffe (5 G-Tonnen Kohle pro
           Jahr *), die Verbrennung von Holz und den Abbau der Biomasse des
           Waldes durch Rodung ( 0/ 5-2 G-Tonnen pro Jahr ) bedingt sind .
           COg verursacht gegenwärtig etwas mehr als 50% des Treibhauseffekts .
           Weitere 25% sind auf FCKW zurückzuführen / die z.B. als Aerosole/ für
           Sprühdosen/ Klimaanlagen / Kühlschränke/ Lösemittel / Verpackungen
          usw . verwendet werden .   Der restliche Treibhauseffekt entsteht durch
          Methan ( CH^) (Viehhaltung/ Naßreisanbau/ Erdgasgewinnung/
           ineffiziente Verbrennung von Biomasse und Kohle )/ durch
          Distickstoffoxid (NgO) (Verwendung fossiler Brennstoffe/
          Stickstoffdüngung ) und durch troposphärisches Ozon, das bei
          photochemischen Vorgängen in der verschmutzten Atmosphäre erzeugt
          wird . Die Treibhausgasemissionen haben in den letzten Jahrzehnten
          erheblich zugenommen .
 A.2.A.   Nach den Ergebnissen globaler Klimamodelle ist davon auszugehen , daß
          die durchschnittliche Oberflächentemperatur der Erde durch eine
          Verdoppelung der vorindustriellen äquivalenten Treibhausgas ¬
          konzentrationen um etwa 1 / 5 - A/ 5 °C ansteigen wird . Bei den
          gegenwärtigen Tendenzen wird dies voraussichtlich bis zum Jahr 2050
          geschehen .
A.2.5 .   Die derzeitigen Klimamodelle können keine zuverlässige
          regionsspezifische Einschätzung der potentiellen Klimaänderungen
          bieten / die dem erwähnten mittleren Anstieg der
          Oberflächentemperatur entsprechen .
          Groben Schätzungen zufolge könnte der Temperaturanstieg in Europa
          größer sein als im weltweiten Durchschnitt .
A.2.6 . Die indirekten Folgen solcher Klimaänderungen lassen sich wie folgt
          zusammenfassen :
          - Anstieg des Meeresspiegels (von 30 cm auf 1 / 5 m bei einer
             Erwärmung von etwa 1 / 5 - A/ 5°C );
          - Abbau des Meereises ;
          - Verringerung der Wasservorräte in einigen Gebieten;
          - Veränderungen der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität ;
          - Auswirkungen auf die menschliche Gesundheid und die Ökologie .
if                 O
   1 G- Tonne = 10    Tonnen = 1.000 Millionen Tonnen
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 6 -
A.3 .     Internationaler Rahaen und Perspektiven
A.3.1 .   Ein wissenschaftlicher Konsens uber die oben beschriebenen
          Grundlagen des Treibhauseffekts wurde auf der " International
          Conference on the assessment and the role of CO ^ and of other
          greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts "
          (Villach , 9.-15 . Oktober 1985 ) erreicht .
A.3.2 .   Oie Schlußfolgerungen der Villacher Konferenz wurden auf einem
          EWG-Symposium (3.-5. November 1986) uber "CO^ and other greenhouse
          gases : climate and associated impacts" und auf Workshops in Villach
          ( 28 . September - 2 . Oktober 1987) und in Bellagio ( 9.-13 . November
          1987 ) zum Thema " Developing policies for responding to climatic
          change " weiterentwickelt .
A.3.3 .   Mi t dem Treibhauseffekt befaßte sich auch die Brundtland-Kommission .
          Im Anschluß an ihre Empfehlungen fand vom 27 . - 30 . Juni 1988 in
          Toronto eine weltweite Konferenz über " The changing atmosphere ,
          implications for global security" statt . Auf dieser Konferenz
          wurden u.a . folgende Maßnahmen empfohlen :
        - Ratifizierung des Protokolls von Montreal über Stoffe , die die
          Czonschicht schädigen . Das Protokoll sollte 1990 revidiert werden ,
          um die nahezu vollständige Beseitigung der Emissionen von
          halogenierten FCKW bis zum Jahr 20CC sicherzustellen .
        - Festlegung von Energiepolitiken zur Reduzierung von CO., und anderen
          Spurengasen , um die Risiken einer künftigen globalen Erwärmung zu
          verringern .
        - Bis zum Jahr 2005 Verringerung von COg-Emissionen um etwa 20% der
          Werte von 1988, als erstes Globalziel der Industrieländer .
        - Zielsetzungen für Verbesserungen des Energiewirkungsgrads , die in
          unmittelbarem Zusammenhang mit der Verringerung von C0^ und anderen
          Treibhausgasen stehen .
        - Einleitung der Arbeiten zur Entwicklung einer Globalkonvention .
        - Schaffung eines "World Atmosphere Fund".
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 7 -
A.3.4 . Kurzfristig werden die obengenannten internationalen Bestrebungen
           möglicherweise bereits 1989 zur Einleitung der Vorbereitungen einer
           Vereinbarung über den Treibhauseffekt führen . Oie
           Emissionsbegrenzung für Treibhausgase würden dann im Rahmen dieser
           Vereinbarung durch Protokolle festgelegt .
A.3.5 . Oie nächstliegenden wichtigen Veranstaltungen zur Vorbereitung
          dieser Konvention werden voraussichtlich sein :
        - der internationale Workshop über Gesetzgebung und Politik , der
          Anfang 1989 in Ottawa stattfinden soll ;
        - eine hochrangige politische Konferenz , die im Herbst 1989 vom
          niederländischen Umweltministerium veranstaltet werden soll ;
        - Die Second World Climate Conference im Juni 1990 in Genf ;
        - Die Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development , die
          1992 stattfinden soll und den Höhepunkt dieser Ereignisse bilden
          könnte .
A.4 .     Hôgliche MaBnahmen
A.4.1 .   Die Politiken zur Verringerung des Treibhauseffekts können
          Vorbeugungs - und /oder Anpassungsmaßnahmen umfassen .
A.4.2 . Vorbeugungsmaßnahmen zielen auf die Eindämmung der
          Treibhausgasemissionen ab, um die voraussichtlichen Auswirkungen zu
          verringern .
          Die wichtigsten Interventionsbereiche in bezug auf Ct^ sind der
          Energiesektor insgesamt und die Forstwirtschaft in den tropischen
          Regionen .
          Beispiele für energiepolitische Maßnahmen, die zur Eindämmung der
          ^-Emissionen beitragen könnten :
          - Steigerung des Energiewirkungsgrads ( in bezug auf Versorgung und
             Nachfrage );
          • Umstellung auf kohlenstoffarme Brennstoffe ;
          - verstärkte Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energiequellen und Biomasse ;
          - verstärkte Nutzung sicherer Kernenergie .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 8 -
        Oer Förderung innovativer Energietechnologien zur Unterstützung
        derartiger Maßnahmen kommt dabei besondere Bedeutung zu .
        Langfristig könnten neue Energiesysteme / die nicht auf Kohle
        basieren/ einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Eindämmung der
        CO^Emissionen leisten .
        Natürlich sind nicht alle der obengenannten Maßnahmen gleichermaßen
        wirksam . Darüber hinaus ist eine sorgfältige Einschätzung ihrer
        wirtschaftlichen Rentabilität erforderlich .
        Zu der Forstpolitik sollte eine Umkehrung der gegenwärtigen Tendenz
        zur Entwaldung , insbesondere in den Äquatorregionen, angestrebt
        werden . Dies würde insbesondere die verstärkte Verwendung von
        Ersatzstoffen für Holz , das in diesen Gebieten vorzugsweise als
        Brennstoff eingesetzt wird, sowie die Förderung beständiger
        Agrartechniken erfordern , so daß die landwirtschaftliche Expansion
        keine weiträumigen Waldrodungen durch Abbrennen beinhaltet .
A.4.3 . Maßnahmen zur Verringerung der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen wie
        CH h. und N,0
                   c
                      sind angesichts der Unsicherheitsfaktoren hinsichtlich
        der Emissionen dieser Stoffe schwieriger zu bestimmen .
        Folgende Möglichkeiten sollten geprüft werden :
        - Einschränkung des CH^-Verlusts bei der Förderung, dem Transport
           und dem Einsatz von Erdgas .
        - Einschränkung der CH^-Emissionen von Mülldeponien .
        - Einschränkung der N20-Emissionen bei der Verwendung fossiler
           Brennstoffe .
        - Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten bei der Viehhaltung , beim Reisanbau und
           dem Betrieb von Klärteichen, um die Freisetzung von CH^
           einzuschränken .
        ~ Verbesserungsmöglichkeiten bei der Kunst st offdüngung , um die
            Freisetzung von NgO aus stickstoffhaltigen Düngemitteln
           einzuschränken .
A.4.4 . Die vollständige Beseitigung der FCKW-Emissionen sollte bis zum Jahr
        2000 durch Produktionsauflagen, Rückgewinnung, Recycling oder
        Vernichtung der FCKW in vorhandenen Erzeugnissen möglich sein .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 9 -
A. 4.5 . Anpassungsmaßnahmen ( z.B. zur Vermeidung oder Verringerung von
         Schäden, die durch Klimaänderungen und deren Folgen entstehen)
         können in bezug auf Auswirkungen notwendig sein, die sich trotz
         vorbeugender Aktionen als unvermeidbar erweisen .
         Zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt ist es nicht möglich ,
         Anpassungsmaßnahmen , die in der Gemeinschaft erforderlich sein
         könnten, näher zu beschreiben, da keine zuverlässigen
         regionsspezifischen Abschätzungen der möglichen Folgen vorliegen .
         Grundsätzlich könnten aufgrund des Anstiegs des Meeresspiegels
         folgende Anpassungsmaßnahmen erforderlich sein : Bau von
         Seedeichen / Flutdämmen , staatliche Flutversicherungen , Bau von
         Reservoirs ( zur Bekämpfung des erhöhten Salzgehalts ), Evakuierung
         entwickelter Regionen in tiefliegenden Gebieten , sonstige Umsiedlung
         von Bevölkerungen aus gefährdeten Gebieten , Schutz der Ökosysteme in
         Küstenlage .
         Weitere Untersuchungen sind notwendig um mögliche
         Anpassungsmaßnahmen in anderen Gebieten wie der Forst - und
         Landwirtschaft zu entwickeln .
B.       SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN BEZÜGLICH DES WISSENSSTANDS ÜBER DEN
         TREIBHAUSEFFEKT
B.1 .    Die Zusammenseztung der Erdatmosphäre wird durch menschliche
         Aktivitäten wesentlich verändert .
         Aufgrund von Ergebnissen globaler Klimamodelle sind sich
         Wissenschaftlicher darüber einig, daß eine Verdoppelung der
         äquivalenten ^-Konzentrationen in der Atmosphäre zu einem Anstieg
         der durchschnittlichen Oberflächentemperatur um etwa 1,5 - A,5°C
         führen wird . Dies wird voraussichtlich Mitte des nächsten
         Jahrhunderts der Fall sein .
         Wissenschaftlichen Daten zufolge wird sich die daraus resultierende
         Änderung der durchschnittlichen globalen Klimabedingungen von allen
         Klimaten unterscheiden , die in der historischen Vergangenheit und in
         den jüngsten geologischen Zeiträumen existieren .
 ---pagebreak---                                      10 -
B.2 .  Die verschiedenen Auswirkungen einer solchen Klimaänderung und ihre
       sozio-ökonomi sehen Folgen lassen sich gegenwärtig im einzelnen noch
       nicht zuverlässig abschätzen . Erste Arbeiten zu diesem Thema zeigen
       jedoch , daß die Risiken alarmierend sind und sich daraus vermutlich
       verheerende direkte und indirekte Folgen ergeben werden .
B. 3 . Kürzliche internationale Veranstaltungen haben ein Bewußtsein der
       Dringlichkeit in der weltweiten Diskussion um diese Fragen geweckt .
       Es hat sich deutlich gezeigt , daß brauchbare Strategien zum jetzigen
       Zeitpunkt zu erarbeiten sind und die Forschungsarbeiten beschleunigt
       werden müssen .
C.     SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN DER KOMMISSION
C.O.   Die wichtigsten Schlussfolgerungen des Berichts sind nachstehend
       zusammengef aßt . Eine vollständige Darstellung ist dem Kapitel IV
       dieses Dokuments zu entnehmen .
C.1 .  Die Gemeinschaft sollte die Wiener Konvention zum Schutz der
       Ozonschicht und das Protokoll von Montreal über Stoffe , die die
       Ozonschicht schädigen , uneingeschränkt anwenden und sich an den
       erneuten Verhandlungen für ein solches Protokoll beteiligen .
C.2 .  Die Gemeinschaft sollte die Einleitung von Gesprächen über die
       Möglichkeiten einer internationalen Vereinbarung zum Schutz der
       Atmosphäre begrüßen . Sie sollte bereit sein, einen wesentlichen
       Beitrag zur Vorbereitung und Aushandlung einer solchen Vereinbarung
       zu leisten . Darin könnten unter anderem spezifische Sollwerte für
       die Begrenzung der Treibhausgasemissionen sowie Maßnahmen und
       Programme zur Emissionsverringerung festgelegt werden .
C.3 .  Daher sollte die Kommission unverzüglich ein umfangreiches Programm
       zur Erarbeitung von Lösungsmöglichkeiten einleiten , mit dem die
       Durchführbarkeit , Kosten und voraussichtlichen Ergebnisse möglicher
       Maßnahmen zur Begrenzung der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen geprüft
       werden .
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 11 -
        Als Schwerpunkte eines solchen Programms wären vorzusehen :
      - Bestimmung und technische Beurteilung von Maßnahmen und Technologien
        zur Verringerung der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen;
      - Untersuchung der wirtschaftlichen, industriellen,
        energiewirtschaftlichen, sozialen und institutionellen Folgen und
        Auswirkungen dieser Maßnahmen und Technologien;
      - Strukturierung und Bewertung politischer Szenarien, insbesondere im
        Hinblick auf etwaige strategische Ziele für ^-Grenzwerte;
      - Erstellung eines Rahmens für die Entscheidungsanalyse ;
      - Bestimmung und Bewertung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen .
C.4 .   Die Gemeinschaft und ihre Mitgliedstaaten sollten bei ihren
        politischen Entscheidungen ( in bezug auf den Energiesektor oder
        andere einschlägige Bereiche ) ab sofort das Problem potentieller
        Klimaänderungen im Zusammenhang mit dem Treibhauseffekt
        berücksichtigen .  Damit lassen sich künftig höhere Kosten vermeiden .
C.5 .   Darüber hinaus sollten schon jetzt dringende Maßnahmen zur
        Verstärkung und Ausweitung der Bemühungen im Bereich der
        Energieeinsparung , der Steigerung des Energiewirkungsgrads , der
        Entwicklung neuer Energiequellen und der Verwendung sicherer
        Kerntechnologien beschlossen werden . Die beschleunigte Entwicklung
        und Förderung innovativer kommerzieller Technologien in diesen
        Bereichen sollte dabei hohe Priorität erhalten .
        Angesichts der Energie- und Umweltanforderungen ist eine solche
        Aktion ohne Zweifel gerechtfertigt , unabhängig von den
        Unsicherheitsfaktoren in bezug auf einige wissenschaftliche Aspekte
        des Treibhauseffekts .
        Von großer Wichtigkeit wäre die Möglichkeit die Energiewirksamkeits¬
        verbesserungen als COg-Verringerungen zu quantifizieren .
C.6 .   Die Gemeinschaft sollte ferner intensive Forschungsprogramme zu
        allen einschlägigen Aspekten des Treibhauseffekts unterstützen und
        neue Energiequellen entwickeln die fähig sind COg-Emissionen zu
        verringern .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 12 -
I.   AN INTRODUCTION TO THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE
     What the "greenhouse effect* Is In short
1.   The climate conditions we experience on earth are due, among other
     things , to the presence of the atmosphere around it and to its present
     composition . Without the atmosphere, the average surface temperature of
     the earth , which is presently of around 15°C , would be as low as -18°C .
     In fact , the heat balance of the earth , which receives radiation from
     the sun and reflects or re-emits it into the space, is largely governed
     by the composition of the atmosphere .
     Firstly water vapour , mostly concentrated in the lower atmosphere, is an
     effective absorber of both incoming solar and outgoing infrared earth 's
     radiation and contributes very significantly to determine the average
     surface temperature of the earth .
     Moreover, other substances such as carbon dioxide ( CC^), methane (CH^),
     nitrous oxide (NjO) and chlorof luorocarbons ( CFCs) have the property of
     being nearly transparent to incoming radiation from the sun but to
     retain some of the energy re-emitted by the earth as long wavelenght
     infra-red radiation .
     Ozone also contributes to the absorption of infra-red radiation emitted
     by the earth . ^
     The overall outcome of this mechanism is that part of the radiant energy
     coming from the sun is trapped in the lower atmosphere .
2.   The present scientific knowledge allows us to conclude that any
     significant change in the atmospheric concentrations of the above
     mentioned substances would result in a change of the global thermal
     balance of the earth .
(1 )
     Stratospheric ozone (the "ozone layer ") is a strong absorber of
     ultraviolet radiation from the sun .   Moreover ozone contributes to the
     absorption of infrared radiation from the earth .   Tropospheric ozone
     contributes therefore to trap heat in the lower atmosphere .   Any change
     in the vertical distribution of ozone would contribute to affect the
     thermal balance of the earth .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 13
     In particular an increase in the atmospheric concentrations of C02,
     CFCs, CH^, N20, tropospheric ozone, which are often called "greenhouse
     gases ", would result in more heat to be trapped in the lower troposphere
     and then in some warming and possible associated climate changes
     depending on the size of such greenhouse gases concentration increase .
     This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "greenhouse effect"
     because its basic mechanism is similar to that in a greenhouse where
     incoming radiation energy from the sun is partly transformed to infrared
     radiation by the ground, warms the air and is then retained by the glass
     from escaping again .
Greenhouse gases : emission sources and atmospheric concentration trends
3.   The atmospheric concentrations of all most important greenhouse gases
     have increased over recent times and are still increasing .
4.   In case of carbon dioxide ( CO.,) :
     a.  Emission sources :
         Most of anthropogenic C0_ emissions are due to fossil fuels burning
         ( around 5 Gtons of carbon per year ). Moreover a significant
         contribution comes from burning of wood and decomposition of
         biomass related to deforestation ( uncertain quantity , most likely in
         the range 0,5 - 2 Gtons of carbon per year corresponding to a rate
         of deforestation in the tropical regions of 10 to 20 millions ha /y ).
         C02 world yearly emissions from burning of fossil fuels have
         increased in 25 years, since 1960, from around 2,5 Gt of carbon to
         more than 5 Gt of carbon in 1985 .
         Coal and oil give by now an almost equal contribution to emission
         with slightly more than 2 Gt of carbon each, followed by gas with
         less than 1 Gt of carbon per year .
         It is estimated that since one century, around 170 Gt of carbon have
         been emitted, of which around 100 Gt in the last 25 years .
*              9
   1 Gton = 10   tons = 1000 million tons
 ---pagebreak---                                     14 -
The share of COg emissions per year from fossil fuels for different
parts of the world and its recent evolution is showed in the
following table :
                CO^ emissions in million tons of carbon/y
                           and as X of world total
                              I           1950   I    1965     I     1980   I
I         Region              | Mt /y*       X I Mt /y* I    X I Mt /y* I X I
I North America               I 723       44,7 I 1003 I 32,1 | 1380|26,7 I
| URSS and Eastern Europe     I 291       18,0 I 750 1 24,0 | 12511 24,2 I
( China                       I 23         1 / 4 ( 178 1 5,7 | 4391 8,5 I
I Western Europe              J 379       23,4 I 643 1 20,6 | 853|16 , 5 I
| japan , Australia           I 45         2,8 ( 137 1 4,4 | 300 I 5,8 I
( Developing Countries        I 92         5 / 7 I 250 1 8,0 1 631 1 12,2 I
lothers (worldwide gas        I 63         3 / 9 I 163 1 5,2 | 310 1 6,0 I
Iflaring , bunkers )          !                  I       1      1        I   I
I                             I                  I       1      1        I   I
( World total                 I 1618     100     I 3126 1 100 I 51701100 I
I                             I                  !       1      1        I   I
Source : " Atmosphere carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle "
            US DOE / ER-0239, edited by J.R. Trabalka , Dec . 1985
* absolute figures are rounded to next million ton .
The figures above show the dramatic increase of CC^ emissions in all
regions of the world from 1950 to 1980 .
The share of the total world emissions of China and developing
countries has significantly increased in the same period due i.a . to
the demographic trends in these regions .
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 15 -
 The trends of CO2 world emission from different fossil fuels for the
 period 1950-1982 are shown in next figure , ( source : US D0E / ER-0239
 report referred to above ) :
            ““F
            _ I
                           '          '  ^
                                           . •
                                                      -
           4000 I-                    /
           3000 -
        O       r
        | 1000
        Z 800 :        Zr                             :
        | 600 - S'                                    -
        “ 400 ^
        o                 .. J. -/
                                   *7
        “       -        &У
            *-         X
            1001-_I_I_I_I
             1950       1960        1970         1980
      _Year
The steep increase of yearly C0^ emissions from oil and natural gas
has been slowed down or even reversed after the first oil crisis ,
thus reflecting the worldwide energy policy efforts to restrict the
use of oil , by improvements in energy efficiency and an increased
use of nuclear energy and/or solid fuels . Consequently CO^
emissions from coal have increased after the first oil shock , from a
yearly rate of 1,72% to 2,59% up to 1982 .
Emission data for 1985 show the following contribution from various
fossil fuels :
     I Fuel        1 1 985 CC>2 emissions in |
    I              1 mi Ilion tons carbon /y |
    I gas          1            807            1
    I oil          1           2189            I
    I coal         I           2181            I
    I gas flaring I              52            I
    I Total        I           5229            I
   Source : I. Mintzer , WRI , 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         - ΊΟ -
         Per capita C02 emissions from fossil fuels for different countries
        are shown in the following table , referred to 1982 :
           I       Country            | Per capita C02 emissions (tons I
          I                           lof carbon per inhabitant )      I
          I     United States         |              4,9               I
          I     German Dem . Rep .    |              4,9               I
          I     Canada                |              4,4               I
          I     Czechoslovakia        |              4,1               I
          I     Australia             |              3,9               I
         I      Soviet Union          |              3,3               I
          I     Poland                |              3,0               I
         I      Belgium               |              3,0               I
         I      Germany , Fed . Rep . |              2,9               I
         I      United Kingdom        |              2,5               I
         I      Netherlands           |              2,5               I
         I      France                |              2,0                I
         I      Japan                 |              1/9               I
         I      Italy                 I              1/5               I
         I      Spain                 I              1 /4              I
         I      China                 |              0,5               I
         I      Brazil                |              0,3                I
         I      India                 |              0,1               I
         !      World average         |              1 /0              I
        Calculated from : Smith, I.M. ( 1988) : CO^ and climate change;
        Draft technical review , EIA Coal Research , London , and UN
        statistical data
    b.  Atmospheric concentrations trends :
        Since 1960 to 1985 the average yearly atmospheric concentration of
        C02 has increased from 315 to 345 ppm.*
        There is evidence that the pre-industrial concentration of this gas
        was around 275-285 ppm . The rate of concentration increase for C02
        has accelerated in recent years : it was an average of 1 ppm per
        year in the 70ties and is by now about 1,5 ppm per year .
*
  1 ppm = part per million = 0,0001X
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 17 -
          C02 concentration increase is determined by the effect of manmade
          emissions^ mostly due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation/ on
          the global carbon cycle : natural carbon sinks (mainly the oceans
          and vegetation ) are no longer sufficient to balance such increasing
          emissions and this leads to more CO^ stored in the atmosphere.
 5.  In case of chlorof luorocarbons ( CFC 's ) :
     a.  Emissions sources :
         CFC 's are man-made chemicals used in a variety of applications such
         as aerosol spray cans, air conditioning/ refrigerators/ solvents/
         packaging , etc .
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends
         The atmospheric concentration of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at four sites
         widely dispersed in the world ranged from 0/ 21 to 0/ 23 ppb* and 0/ 37
         to 0/ 39 ppb respectively in 1985 .
         Even if the present atmospheric concentration of these substances is
         by several orders of magnitude lower than that of C02, one has to
         note that the rate of growth of such concentration has been much
         higher than that of C02/ around 5-7% per year, the efficiency in
        trapping heat of some of them is 10/000 higher than C02 ' on a
        molecule by molecule basis and the residence time in the atmosphere
        of some of these substances is extremely long (up to more than 100
        years ).
*
  1 ppb * part per billion = 0,0000001%
 ---pagebreak---                                          18 -
6. In case of methane ( CH ,) :
   ■" ■■                      ' и
   a.    Emission sources :
         Present man-made emissions of CH^ come mainly from livestock, rice
         paddy fields, natural gas exploitation, burning of biomass and coal .
         Natural emissions from biota are also relevant and the overall CH ,
                                                                            *»
         cycle is not well known .
         Rough estimates give the following emission levels for the various
         sources ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in brackets
         shows the dispersion of estimates made by various authors ) :
         Natural Sources (million tons per year ) :
         Enteric fermentation ( wild animals ) 5 (+/- 3 )
         Wetlands ( swamps , etc .)             110 (+/- 50 )
         Lakes                                  4 (+/- 2 )
         Tundra                                 3 (+/- 2 )
         Oceans                                 10 (+/- 3 )
         Termites and other insects             25 (+/- 20 )
         Other                                  40 (+/- 40 )
         Man-Made Sources ( million tons per year ) :
         Enteric fermentation ( cattle , etc. ) 75 (+/- 35 )
         Rice paddies                           70 (+/- 30 )
         Biomass burning                        70 (+/- 40 )
         Natural gas and mining losses          50 (+/- 25 )
         Solid Waste                            30 (+/- 30 )
         ( Source : US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                    D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                       - ТУ -
   b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
                          v
       Atmospheric concentration of CH^ has increased since old times (from
       0,7 ppm before 1700 A.D. to 1,54 and 1,68 ppm in the southern and
       northern hemisphere respectively, in 1983). Average yearly increase
       over 30 years from 1951 to 1981 has been of 1,1% .
7. In case of nitrous oxide ( N-,0 ) :
   a.  Emission sources :
       Man-made emissions of ^0 are mainly due to combustion of fossil
       fuels and biomass . Agricultural soils (both natural and fertilized )
       seem also to give a significant contribution .
       Natural emissions are due to terrestrial and ocean biota .
       Again the quantitative evaluation of emissions from various sources
       is most difficult .     It is estimated that the overall emissions are
       as follows ( expressed in million tons ; the range indicated in
       brackets shows the dispersion of estimates made by various
       authors ) :
       Natural Sources (million tons of N per year ) :
       Oceans and estuaries                    2.0 (+/- 1.0 )
       Natural soils                           6.5 (+/- 3.5 )
       Man-Made Sources (million tons of N per year ) :
       Fossil fuel combustion                  4.0 (♦/- 1.0 )
       Biomass burning                         0.7 (+/- 0.2 )
       Fertilized soils                        0.8 (+/- 0.2 )
       Cultivated natural soils                1.5 (+/- 0.5 )
       ( Source s US Dept , of Energy - "A Primer on Greenhouse Gases" -
                   D0E / NBB0083 - March 88 .)
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 20 -
     b.  Atmospheric concentration trends :
         NgO atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial
         290 ppb to about 300 ppb in 1985 .  The present rate of increase is
         around 0,25% per year .
 8.  It is to be underlined that the present increase in concentration of
     greenhouse gases is due to the interference of human activities with the
     natural cycles . Yet there are significant uncertainties concerning the
     quantitative relationships between emissions of greenhouse gases and the
     observed increase of their atmospheric concentrations .
 9.  Moreover it is not possible at this stage to give reliable forecasts of
     future emission trends because of the wide range of factors influencing
     those trends . However scenarios may be developed using different
     assumptions .
10 . It is reasonable to expect further and accelerating increase in the
     atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases over the next 50
     years .
 Potential climate consequences of increasing greenhouse gases concentrations
11 . The observed and the expected increases in atmospheric concentrations of
     greenhouse gases ( and then the increase in the heat quantity which is
     trapped in the lower atmosphere ) undoubtedly will result in some warming
     and possible associated climate changes .
     However, very significant uncertainties subsist about the shape and the
     rate of such climate changes and in particular about the degree of the
     warming and its timing .
     From this point of view, uncertainties about the potential role of
     climatic feedbacks due to clouds, vegetation etc . are particularly
     relevant .
     It is estimated that the different greenhouse gases contribute at
     present to the overall greenhouse forcing roughly in the following
     proportion : 55% for CO2* 25% for CFC 's, 20% for CH^, NgO and 0^
     together .
 ---pagebreak---                                     21
The possible development of the overall greenhouse effect of the above
mentioned gases until the year 2075 has been tentatively evaluated by
the World Resources Institute in terms of forecasts for the average
warming commitment with reference to 4 scenarios encompassing hypotheses
about future developments from "do nothing" and high growth to
voluntaristic emission reduction policies .
The hypotheses on which this exercise has been based are presented at
page 23 .
It should be underlined that it has not been taken account here of the
likely positive consequences of the recent Montreal protocol on CFC 's .
The WRI study gives only a very limited role to nuclear energy in all
scenarios . In none of the scenarios mentioned , the share of nuclear in
total primary energy supply exceeds 4.5% by 2025 . In other studies this
share is much higher , for  example , IIASA = 23% , WEC ( 83 ) = 13% ,
Goldenberg = 7% , Edmons =  19% . The Commission 's own energy 2000 study
sees the share of nuclear   in world energy supplies as follows : 1983 =
3.3%, 1990 = 5.4%, 2000 =   7.1% . Environmental costs for nuclear range
from $7.5 to $10 / GJ whereas those for coal are between $0.15 and
$1.20/ GJ . In the case of oil $0.00 to $0.75 / GJ . No environmental cost
is assigned to renewable energies .
This model as any other one suffers from both structural and input data
limitations .  However the usefulness of such models is to help
structuring the policy debate on such a complex issue and to identify
critical areas for further research and study .
 ---pagebreak--- The results are summarized in next figure .
        Commitment to Future Wanning in the WR1 Scenario!
             WHSooutoi
             WXlScWWri»
             fl Klÿi Emkrioni
             50    Mode* Pottdo
             S Modo.
             H SJow BuOd-Up
                                                                                   Ш !! !
    o |-,–I–m–r–i–1-1
    1M0
    MM                 3000
                       MM
                                  A□ ni
                                    I
                                          Àiè r
                                          «M IIIfl
                                          3035
                                                         1 i
                                                         I 3090
                                                           ma   I 3073
                                                                  «m
                                                                À EA&XïltZZL**'
                                                                       9w hM4Jp den net nidi double
                                                                       CO, friÜUft U» fencMl pràd
         Apprarimat* year of commitment to wanning
         equal to 15 to 45 degree* centigrade above pre-
         tnduatrial temperature .
         Appwndmate year of commitment to warming
         equal to 15 to 45 digriu centigrade above 1980
         mperatuna.
Source : Mintzer I.M. ( 1987 ); "A Matter of Degrees ,
           URI , Washington DC , USA
 ---pagebreak---                                                                -2 3-
                                                Energy Policies in the WRI Scenarios
                                                                        Related Energy Model Parameter Value
 Ease Case Scenario
 • ‘'Businesa-As-Usual" the inertial model of growth and
   change in the world energy industry
 • No polídes to alow csrbon diowde emissions
 • Mmimal sdmuhis lo improve end-use effocncy                           (Rate of change - 0.8% per year)
• Mndeit ihmuius for »ynfuels development                               (Final Pnce - S3 . 15- *4.25 per C) in 2005)
• Minimal atiinului for devtlopmcnt of tolar energy                     (Final Price - $16.50 per CJ in 2025)
   lYVtml
• No policy to ttah tropical deforestation or to encourage
   reforestation
• Mmùnal envvorunental costa indudcd in price of energy                 ($0.30 per CJ for cool; SI .00 per CJ for aynfucls)
High Fmiasiona Scenario
• Accelerated growth in energy use is encouraged
• No p*i        to slow carbon dioxide emissions
• No stimulus to improve end-use efficiency                             (Rate of change - 0.2% per year)
• Modest stimulus for increased use of coal                             (Rate of improvement • 0.75% per year)
• Strong stimulus for synfuels development                              (Final Price - S2.75-S3.50 per Cl in 1995)
• No stimulus for development o/ solar energy systems                   (Final Price - $20 per CJ in 2040)
• Rapid deforestation and conversion of marginal lands to
   agriculture
• Token environmental costs included in price of energy                 ($0.15 per CJ for coal; $0JO per CJ for synfuels)
Modcst Foliaes Scénario
• Strong stimulus for improved end-use effiriency                       (Rate of change - 1.0% per year)
• Modest stimulus for solar energy                                      (Final price - $15.00 per CJ in 2025)
• Substantial efforts at tropical reforestation and ecosystem
   protection; more intensive rather than extensive
   agriculture encouraged
• Substantial environmental costs imposed on energy                     ($0.60 per CJ for coal; SI .50 per CJ for synfuels)
   prices to discourage solid fuel use and encourage
   fuel-switching
Slow Build-up Scenario
• Strong emphasis placed on improving energy efficiency                 (Rate of improvement • 1.5% per year)
• Rapid introduction of solar energy encouraged                         (Final Pnce - S 12.00 per GJ in 2000)
• Major global commitment to reforestation and ecosystem
   protection
• High environmental costs imposed on energy prices to                  ($1.20 per CJ for coal; S3.00 per CJ for synfuels)
   discourage solid fuel use and encourage fuel-switching
                   Total Emissions of C02 in the WRI Scenarios (Cigatons of Carbon per Year)
               »Л                                                                           ш
                             WRJ Scenario*
                                 SCUIVIM                                                /
                         flj High Emissions
                         B                                                          /
               ** -!      ▲ Base Case
                          A Base Case                                            /
                   J      4F Modest Policies
                          2F Modest Policies                                  /
                          • Slow Build-up
         l     “■
        | u'                                      /
                2.                                               ~      *          ---
                H-1-1-1-'-
                  1975              3000             2025              2050              2075
 ---pagebreak---                                               - 24 -
 By a different approach , Or . R. A. Warrich of the Climatic Resarch Unit
 of the University of East Anglia in Norwich - UK, has recently tried to
 link emission forecasts and likely climatic changes and to assign
 probabilities to the possible outcome .
 The results of this exercise are summarized in the following graph :
                             RESIDUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE (FROM 1985 W°C)
      (B)
      (B ) CLIMATE
            CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
                    SENSITIVITY          EOUILIBRIUM UTRANSIENT) "C)         (C) CL|MAT(C
                                                                                  CLIMATIC CHANGE
                                                                                              CHANGE
                                                 7-° "J (3:0-3.7)
                           – - – – – 0 – – – – – –                                  –
      I ^^0                                      e.o-
                                                 6.0 +
      ;                                                    (2.5-3 . 1 )
                                                         _(2.5J5J
      1                 \                        6.o - -                               -           p
                                                 4.0 +
                                           v7 -3.0
                                                                                _ U_r .60      .60 вB
                                                 30 T                       “IF                  I '
                                                                        BEST GUESS : .45
                                                                        BEST GUESS                  \
                                                   s+b
                                                   STh    ( 1.0-1
                                                          LJ -o- i -. D
                                                                      1 ) __ L
                                                      1 U – /TV UT - L_
                                                                               t_                  T
                                                        _ _(ŒSI _ Z Z ' _: _ Y
                                                   O. -,     (o.e )
     I                   lll                                                          V •
     r-H-1-1-4                   1-1+-hr-1-1-1-1––I-1-
        800      700        600 |     600
                                      500         A \ 1665  1665 2005       20 15 2025
                                                                    2005 2015     2025 2035
                                                                                         2035 2045
                                                                                              2045
     ( EQUIVALENT CO.CONC
                   C02 C0NC (ppmv)
                     *   I       I
                                       |
                                       A
                                               Xgl I \     \                           I      YEAR
                                                                                              YEAR
     !                   !       I                   +I86I
                                                                                       !
    |                    I                   / 2006  + 2006
                                                    + 2016
                                                                                       I
                               W/ V_x_"2!2l _\*     + 2026
                               '/ /                 - -2035
                                                        2035                              N.
                               1   /O                                                        \
                                 /?                 - -2045                                   \
                               Â                     U                                           \ \
                                                       YEAR
    (A) GREENHOUSE FORCING
Legend :
- WIGLEY , SCOPE , BASE CASE indicate projections of greenhouse gases
   emissions
~   T2X is the climate sensitivity expressed as equilibrium temperature
   increase due to a doubling of the equivalent CO^ concentration
- " transient temperature " is the temperature increase at a given date
   due to the greenhouse forcing
- " equilibrium temperature " is the warming to which earth would have
   been committed at a given date due to the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                            25 -
         The following conclusions i.a. have been drown by the author of the
         above mentioned evaluation :
            Given the range of scientific uncertainties, the warming to which
          we will be committed in 2030 is 0.8-6.4°C . The chance of falling
          outside this range is less than 1% .
       - The "best-guess" range is 1.5-3.1°C warmer than today . The
          probability of warming within this range is 45% .
       - The 90% confidence interval is 1.1-5.1°C .   This median value - the
          best guess - is 2.8°C ."
12 .  The presently available climate models predict (with various degrees of
      uncertainties) the following climate and associated impacts ^ :
      - Global-Nean Surface Warming (very probable ). For a doubling of
        atmospheric carbon dioxide (or its radiative equivalent from all of
        the greenhouse gases ), the long-term global-mean surface warming is
        expected to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C . The most significant
        uncertainty arises from the effects of clouds . Of course , the actual
        rate of warming over the next century will be governed by the growth
        rate of greenhouse gases , natural fluctuations in the climate system,
        and the detailed response of the slowly responding parts of the
        climate system, i.e. , oceans and glacial ice .
      - Globa l-Hean Precipitation Increase (very probable ). Increased heating
        of the surface will lead to increased evaporation and, therefore , to
        greater global mean precipitation . Despite this increase in global
        average precipitation, some individual regions might well experience
        decreases in rainfall .
      - Polar Winter Surface Warming (very probable ). As the sea ice boundary
        is shifted poleward, the models predict a dramatically enhanced
        surface warming in winter polar regions . The greater fraction of open
        water and thinner sea ice will probably lead to warming of the polar
        surface air by as much as 3 times the global mean warming .
 (1 )
      Source : NRC ( 1987); Current Issues in Climate Change, National Research
                Council , Washington DC , USA .
 ---pagebreak---                                         26 -
     - Summer Continental Dryness /Uaralng ( likely in the long term ). Several
        studies have predicted a marked long-term drying of the soil moisture
        over some mid-latitude interior continental regions during summer .
        This dryness is mainly caused by an earlier termination of snowmelt
        and rainy periods , and an earlier onset of the spring-to-summer
        reduction of soil wetness . Of course , these simulations of long-term
        equilibrium conditions may not offer a reliable guide to trends over
        the next few decades of changing atmospheric composition and changing
        climate .
     - High-Latitude Precipitation Increase (probable ). As the climate
        warms, the increased poleward penetration of warm, moist air should
        increase the average annual precipitation in high latitudes .
     To complete the picture of expected direct effects , it is worth
     mentioning also a :
     - Large Stratospheric Cooling ( virtually certain ).  Reduced ozone
        concentrations in the upper stratosphere will lead to reduced
        absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation and therefore less heating .
        Increases in the stratospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and
        other radiatively active trace gases will increase the radiation of
        heat from the stratosphere .  The combination of decreased heating and
        increased cooling will lead to a major lowering of temperatures in the
        upper stratosphere .
     This last effect seems quite important as a possible efficient and rapid
     "f inger-print " of the greenhouse effect given that "the expected changes
     in the upper stratosphere are nearly of an order of magnitude greater
     than the expected surface changes and that they are not affected by the
     ocean thermal inertia and by cloud feedback effects (processes which are
     a source of considerable uncertainty in assessing tropospheric climate
     change )" ( WMO, 1985 ).
13 . It is worth stressing again that uncertainties on the shape , on the
     regional distribution and on the rate of such changes should not hide
     the fact that observed and expected increase in greenhouse gases
     atmospheric concentrations will modify the thermal balance of the earth
     and therefore will bring some warming and possible associated climate
     modification .
 ---pagebreak---                                           27
      As it was put as a conclusion at a symposium on "COg and other
      greenhouse gases : climatic and associated impact " organized by the
      Commission on 3 to 5 November 1986 :
             Although quantitative uncertainties in models remain, it is now
            believed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will
            produce a significant change during the 21st century.
          - ... This warming of 1.5 to 4.5° is expected ot occur over the next
            50 years .
          “ Over Europe the range of model results shows that average summer
            temperatures could increase by 2 - 6°C , winter average temperatures
            by 4 - 10°C . In winter precipitation would increase ..."
 Potential impacts of climate changes
14 . Potential impacts of the above mentioned climate changes will of course
     depend on the size and rate of the latter . At the symposium on " CO^ and
     other greenhouse gases " mentioned in paragraph 13, it was concluded
     that :
        " The expected climatic change will have profound effects on sea-level ,
          global ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea-ice ."
     In particular such impacts could involve :
15 . Sea level rise
     Over the past 100 years, while global mean temperature has increased by
     approximately 0.5°C, sea level has risen by 10-15 cm . ( Source : US-EPA
     ( 1986); "Effects of Changes in Stratosphere Ozone and Global Climate",
     Volume 1 ).
     The projected global warming could have the following results :
     . heating and therefore expanding the ocean water ;
     . melting of mountain glaciers ;
     . melting of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica;
     . a possible ( but unlikely) surge of a major portion of the Antarctic
        ice sheet into the ocean .
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 28
     A wide range of different estimâtes for future sea level ri se are
     avai labié .
     The most likely range for such increase by the middle of next century
     seems to be in the order of 30 cm to 1,5 meter ( Toronto Conference, June
     1988 ).
     A significant rise in sea level would :
     . permanently inundate many coastal wetlands and lowlands ;
     . accelerate coastal erosion;
     . exacerbate coastal flooding and storm damage ;
     . increase the salinity of estuaries and coastal aquifers .
16 . Réduction of Sea Ice
     As the climate warms , total sea ice is expected to be reduced .  This is
     a very probable effect .
17 . Uater Resources Impacts
     Greenhouse warming may result in significant changes in precipitation
     patterns . While it is likely that global mean precipitation will
     increase , some regions may experience decreases in rainfall . Several
     studies predict substantial increases in summer dryness at
     mid-latitudes .  As well as the impacts that this will have on
     agriculture , water resource reduction may affect the following :
     . availability of water for human consumption;
     . power génération;
     . effluent dilution ;
     . navigation .
18 . Agriculture
     It should be mentioned that an increase in the CO^ atmospheric
     concentration would stimulate vegetable growth by increasing
     photosynthesis rate and therefore could have per se a beneficial direct
     effect on crops and vegetation . This direct effect is difficult to
     quantify especially since the concomitant temperature increase would
     reduce the rate of net photosynthesis . Moreover any attempt to take it
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 29
Into account should try to strike a balance between such direct effect
and indirect impacts of increasing C02 concentration through climatic
modifications .
The greenhouse warming could affect agriculture and forestry mostly by
altering :
. total water availability and seasonal distribution of rainfall at
  regional level ;
. length of growing season;
. number of extreme temperature events .
There are two perspectives on the agricultural impacts of climate
change .
- The " Slow change" view : emphasises the significance of gradual
  increases in mean surface temperatures expected to lead to gradual ,
  long-term and cumulative changes in average regional climates and
  agricultural patterns .
- The " Extreme events " view : emphasises changes in the frequencies of
  unusually disruptive events ; impact of climate change comes not only
  from the average but mainly from the extreme event , e.g. droughts ,
  flooding .
There is already concern among some experts that recent regional extreme
events could be more than just climate fluctuations .
The main possible effects of climate variations on agriculture are
                   (2)
summarised below       :
■- changes in length of the potential growing season and changes in
   plant growth rates ;
     Source : Parry M.L. et al ( Eds ) ( 1987) ; The Impact of Climate
     Variations on Agriculture , Volume 1 , Assessments in Cool , Temperate
     and Cold Regions , Reidel , Dordrecht , The Netherlands
 ---pagebreak---                                     30 -
 - changes in mean yield and in the variability of yields ;
 - changes in the level of crop certainty and in the crop quality ;
 - changes in the sensitivity of plants to application of fertilisers,
    pesticides and herbicides ."
Moreover climate changes could indirectly significantly affect
agriculture in certain regions of the world through possible effects on
soil characteristics , water resources, hydrology, pests and diseases
etc .
At present , there is uncertainty about the nature , the magnitude and
location of impacts . Studies so far conclude the following :
- Areas particularly sensitive to shifts in temperature and rainfall
  levels are high latitude , semi-arid and high-altitude regions .
- Warming appears to be detrimental to cereals in the core wheat-growing
  areas of Europe and North-America .
- Investigations of possible impacts in Canada , Finland and Northern
                                                       (1 )
  USSR using climate data from the model by Hansen          et al , show
  reduced yields of spring-sown crops such as wheat , barley and oats ,
  due to the increased moisture stress early in the growing period .
Impacts on agriculture would result in impacts on the local community,
regional and national economies, in particular through changes in farm
income and profitability, changes in regional production costs , changes
in regional and national food production , changes in regional farm
income disparities , changes in regional economic activity and
employment .
Hansen J. et al ( 1983 ) : " Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for
Climate Studies : Models I and II ", Monthly Weather Review III , pp .
609-662 .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 31 -
      In conclusion it is not possible under the present state of knowledge to
      give more than a tentative and qualitative description of possible
      effects of clinate changes on agriculture given the large uncertainties
      about the regional shape and size of such changes and the lack of
      detailed research and studies on the likely response of agricultural
     systems in various regions of the world .
     Urgent efforts are required to improve understanding of these aspects
     both at global level because of the potentially disruptive food security
     effects and at Community level because of the direct potential
     socio-economic impacts .
19.  Forest Ecosystems and Timber Production
     It is worth noticing that the same general comment on the direct
     potential effect of COg on vegetation made at the beginning of
     paragraph 18 applies here too .
     Predicted impacts include the following :
        . modification of botanical and zoological composition of natural
          forest ecosystems ;
        . increase of forest decline in natural and manmade forest stands ;
        . modifications in forest productivity and forest management ;
        . disturbance o/ timber- and woodproducts markets and trade;
        . danger of extinction of certain forest tree species and local
          ecotypes with a limited geographical distribution and by this a
          reduction of global genetic variability of forests .
20 . Human Health Impacts
     It should also be mentioned that a global warming could also have
     impacts for human health .  It could in particular :
        . possibly enable some diseases which require warm year-round
          temperatures to survive at higher latitudes ;
        . cause more frequent famines and shortages of food supplies (extreme
          events );
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 32 -
      Expansion of tropical climates and concurrent expansion of the range of
      tropical diseases would mostly affect developing countries that already
      face health problems .
21 .  Ecology and Fisheries Impacts
      The following potential ecological impacts are worth mentioning     :
        . impacts on less managed ecosystems ;
        . impacts on marine ecosystems ;
        . multiple stresses on some species which could become extinct ,
          resulting in a significant decline in biodiversity ;
        . impact on wildlife reserves ( the impact would depend on whether the
          reserve 's boundaries encompass areas to which plants and animals
          could migrate ).
      The level of impact would depend on the rate of change in climate and
      thus the time allowed for acclimatisation and ecological species shifts .
      Finally it is worth mentioning that since the ocean and atmosphere are
      coupled , both the distribution and abundance of fishery resources are
      capable of being modified by climate .
      However , it is controversial how much observed changes in particular
      fishery stocks are due to climate and other natural causes or to
      overfishing .
 II . THE INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK AND PERSPECTIVES
 Introduction
22 .  Le rôle joué par certains gaz présents dans l' atmosphère dans les
      équilibres thermiques de la terre était connu dans ses grandes lignes
      déjà vers la moitié du siècle dernier ( Tyndall , 1863; Arrhenius , 1896;
      Chamberlin , 1899 ).
      Les premières mesures systématiques de la concentration du COg par un
      réseau mondial ont toutefois démarré seulement en 1958 .
 ---pagebreak---                                         33 -
     Depuis lors l' augmentation observée de cette concentration a poussé les
     milieux scientifiques â entreprendre et à intensifier la recherche sur
     tous les aspects de l' effet serre .
     Ce n' est toutefois que très récemment que ce sujet a commencé à faire
     l' objet de l' attention des responsables politiques .
     Les problèmes bien connus concernant la couche d' ozone qui ont entraîné
     des négociations internationales et des décisions politiques ont en
    effet porté l' attention de ces responsables politiques sur les risques
    globaux liés aux modifications de notre atmosphère causées par l' action
    de l' homme et sur la nécessité de préparer les réponses concrètes à
    donner aux indications scientifiques de plus en plus inquiétantes
    concernant l' éventualité de modifications du climat .
    As a consequence , the following recent events have marked an important
    evolution in attitudes towards the greenhouse issue :
    . the "Villach" conference (Vi llach-Austria , 9-15 October 1985 );
    . the European Parliament resolution on measures to counteract
       rising concentrations ( September 1985 )
    . The EEC Symposium on "COg and other greenhouse gases" (Brussels,
       3-5 November 1986 );
    . The Workshops on " Developing policies for responding to climatic
       change" (Vi llach-Austria , 28 September-2 October 1987 and
       Bellagio-Italy, 9-13 November 1987);
    . The Brundtland Commission 's report
    . The World Conference on " The changing atmosphere" (Toronto, 27-30 June
       1988 ).
    The last event is of particular importance for future development and
    its outcome is presented in the next paragraph .
    Details about the other events mentioned above are given in the Annex to
    this document .
The world conference on "The changing atmosphere, implications for global
security* - Toronto, 27-30 june 1988
 ---pagebreak---                                         34
23 . This high level conference has been organized at the initiative of the
     Canadian government to follow-up some of the conclusions and
     recommendations of the Brundtland commission report .
     More than 300 scientists and policy makers from 48 countries , United
     Nations organizations , other international bodies and non-governmental
     organizations participated in the sessions .
     Of the conference conclusions and recommendations , the following seem
     most important and are therefore reproduced in full :
     "- Humanity is conducting an enormous , unintended , globally pervasive
         experiment whose ultimate consequences could be second only to a
         global nuclear war . The Earth 's atmosphere is being changed at an
         unprecedented rate by pollutants resulting from human activities ,
         inefficient and wasteful fossil fuel use and the effects of rapid
         population growth in many regions . These changes represent a major
         threat to international security and are already having harmful
         consequences over many parts of the globe .
       - Far-reaching impacts will be caused by global warming and sea level
         rise , which are becoming increasingly evident as a result of
         continued growth in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and
         other greenhouse gases . The best predictions available indicate
         potentially severe economic and social dislocation for present and
         future generations , which will worsen international tensions and
         increase the risk of conflicts among and within nations . It is
         imperative to act now ."
     The following immediate actions are recommended :
     " A. Actions by Governments and Industry
        - Ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
          Layer . The Protocol should be revised in 1990 to ensure nearly
          complete elimination of the emissions of fully halogenated CFCs by
          the year 2000 . Additional measures to limit other ozone-destroying
          halocarbons should be considered .
 ---pagebreak---                                   35 -
 - Set energy policies to reduce the emissions of C02 and other trace
    gases in order to reduce the risks of future global warming .
    Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of C02 is an imperative
    goal . It is currently estimated to require reductions of more than
    50 percent from present emissions levels . Energy research and
    developmental budgets must be massively directed to energy options
    which would eliminate or greatly reduce C02 emissions and to studies
    undertaken to further refine the target reductions .
 “ Reduce C02 emissions by approximately 20 percent of 1988 levels by
   the year 2005 as an initial global goal . Clearly, the
    industrialized nations have a responsibility to lead the way, both
   through their national energy policies and their bilateral and
   multilateral assistance arrangements . About one-half of this
    reduction would be sought from energy efficiency and other
   conservation measures . The other half should be effected by
   modifications in supplies .
- Set targets for energy efficiency improvements that are directly
   related to reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . A
   challenging target would be to achieve the 10 percent energy
   efficiency improvements by 2005 . Improving energy efficiency is not
   precisely the same as reducing total carbon emissions and the
   detailed policies will not all be familiar ones . A detailed study
   of the systems implications of this target should be made . Equally,
   targets for energy supply should also be directly related to
   reductions in C02 and other greenhouse gases . As with efficiency, a
   challenging target would again be to achieve the 10 percent energy
   supply improvements by 2005 . A detailed study of the systems
   implications of this target should also be made . The contributions
   to achieving this goal will vary from region to region; some
   countries have already demonstrated a capability for increasing
   efficiency by more than 2 percent a year for over a decade .
- Apart from efficiency measures, the desired reduction will require
   Ci ) switching to lower C02 emittaing fuels, <ii ) reviewing
   strategies for the implementation of renewable energy especially
  advanced biomass conversion technologies ; Ciii ) revisiting the
  nuclear power option, which lost credibility because of problems
   related to nuclear safety, radioactive wastes , and nuclear weapons
 ---pagebreak---                                    36 -
   proliferation . If these problems can be solved/ through improved
   engineering designs and institutional arrangements / nuclear power
   could have a role to play in lowering CO^ emissions .
 - Negotiate now on ways to achieve the above-mentioned reductions .
 - Initiate management systems in order to encourage/ review and
   approve major new projects for energy efficiency .
 - Vigorously apply existing technologies / in addition to gains made
   through reduction of fossil fuel combustion / to reduce ( i ) emissions
   of acidifying substances to reach the critical load that the
   environment can bear ; ( ii ) substances which are precursors of
   tropospheric ozone; (iii ) other non-C02 greenhouse gases .
 - Label products to allow consumers to judge the extent and nature of
   the atmospheric contamination that arises from the manufacture and
   use of the product .
B. Action by Member Governments of the United Nations /
   Non-Governmental Organizations and Relevant International Bodies .
 - Initiate the development of a comprehensive global convention as a
   framework for protocols on the protection of the atmosphere . The
   convention should emphasize such key elements as the free
   international exchange of information and support of research and
   monitoring / and should provide a framework for specific protocols
   for addressing particular issues, taking into account existing
   international law . This should be vigorously pursued at the
   International Workshop on Law and Policy to be held in Ottawa early
   in 1989/ the high-level political conference on Climate Change in
   the Netherlands in the Fall , 1989, the World Energy Conference in
   Canada in 1989 and the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva , June
   1990, with a view to having the principles and components of such a
   convention ready for consideration at the inter-governmental
   Conference on Sustainable Development in 1992 . These activities
   should in no way impede simultaneous national , bilateral and
   regional actions and agreements to deal with specific problems such
   as acidification and greenhouse gas emissions .
 ---pagebreak---                             - 37 -
 Establish a World Atmosphere Fund/ financed in part by a levy on
 fossil fuel consumption of industrialized countries/ to mobilize a
substantial part of the resources needed for implementation of the
Action Plan for the Protection of the Atmosphere .
Support the work of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
to conduct continuing assessments of scientific results and initiate
government-to-government discussion of responses and strategies .
Devote increasing resources to research and monitoring efforts
within the World Climate Programme / the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme and Human Response to Global Change Programme .
It is particularly important to understand how climate changes on a
regional scale are related to an overall global change of climate .
Emphasis shouls also be placed on better determining the role of
oceans and global heat transport and the flux of greenhouse gases .
Increase significantly the funding for research / development and
transfer of information on renewable energy / if necessary by the
establishment of additional and bridging programmes ; extend
technology transfer with particular emphasis on the needs of the
developing countries ; and upgrade efforts to meet obligations for
the development and transfer of technology embodied in existing
agreements .
Expand funding for more extensive technology transfer and technical
cooperation projects in coastal zone protection and management .
Reduce deforestation and increase afforestation making use of
proposals such as that in the World Commission on Environment and
Developments (WCED ) report / "Our Common Future"/ including the
establishment of a trust fund to provide adequate incentives to
enable developing nations to manage their tropical forest resources
sustainably .
Develop and support technical cooperation projects to allow
developing nations to participate in international mitigation
efforts/ monitoring/ research and analysis related to the changing
atmosphere .
 ---pagebreak---                                         38 -
       - Ensure that this Conference Statement , the Working Groupe reports
         and the full Proceedings of the World Conference , " The Changing
         Atmosphere : Implications for Global Security" (to be published in
         the Fall , 1988 ) are made available to all nations , to the
         conferences mentioned under paragraph 26, and other future meetings
         dealing with related issues .
       - Increase funding to non-governmental organizations to allow the
         establishment of environmental education programmes and public
         awareness campaigns related to the changing atmosphere . Such
         programmes would aim at sharpening perception of the issues , and
         changing public values and behaviour with respect to the
         envi ronment .
       - Allocate financial support for environmental education in primary
         and secondary schools and universities . Consideration should be
         given to establishing special groups in university departments for
         addressing the crucial issues of global climate change .
 Future possible developments
24 . A possible short-term outcome of the above mentioned international
     activites is initiation, already in 1989, of the process for preparing a
     comprehensive global convention on the protection of the atmosphere .
     Limitations to the emissions of greenhouse gases would then be agreed by
     specific protocols in the frame of such convention .
25 . Next essential events on the way to that convention might probably be :
     - the international workshop on law and policy to be held in Ottawa
       early in 1989;
     - a high level political conference to be convened in the autumn 1989 by
       the Netherlands Ministry of the Environment ;
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 39
      - the Second World Climate Conference, Geneva, June 1990;
      - the Intergovernmental Conference on sustainable Development In 1992
         which could be the culminating event .
26 .  The substance of the convention mentioned under 24 above ( and of
     ‘associated protocols ) as far as the greenhouse Issue is concerned could
      probably consist in :
      a ) greenhouse gases emission reduction targets for developed countries;
      b) new development aid schemes to help developing countries to limit the
          increase of their greenhouse gases emissions by use of appropriate
          technologies and to reverse deforestation trends ;
      c ) a new impetus to scientific and technical international cooperation
          on all the aspects relevant for the greenhouse issue .
27 .  Renegotiation of the Montreal Protocol on CFC 's is a very likely short
      term development .
28 .  Policy discussions on the way how to deal with the greenhouse effect
      might be very complex because of the many far reaching and interrelated
      aspects of the issue .
      In this respect , it is worth stressing the global , complex and
      differentiated nature of the challenge put by the greenhouse issue .
      This was well presented in the following statement at the Bellagio
      ( 1987) workshop ( see Annex ) :
         "... the participants emphasized the relationship between the issue of
          climatic change, including policy responses to it, and a number of
          other issues , above all in the field of environment and development .
          This relationship underlines the importance of the differences in
          impact by region, and hence by country, of climatic change and the
          extent to which these differences affect the effort of the
          international community in promoting sustainable development .
 ---pagebreak---                                            40
           The report of the Brundtland Commission has explained the
           ramifications of these numerous interconnections . The significance
           of the difference in regional impact should not / however/ be allowed
           to detract from the emphasis on the comunity as a whole in facing it .
           Still less should it encourage any attempts to divide countries or
           regions into ■winners" or " losers ". This is not a "zero-sum" game .
           Unless action is taken, it could be a negative sum game of highly
           uncertain proportions ."
 III . REVIEW OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS
 Introduction
29 .  Preliminary indications from research results and the state of the
      international debate call for urgent consideration of further action on
      the greenhouse issue .
      Such action , of which the following paragraphs give an overview , could
      include :
           - research ;
           - preventive measures Ci.e . measures to curb greenhouse gases
             emissions );
           - adaptive measures ( i.e. measures to adapt to climatic changes and
             to their impacts if those seem likely to be unavoidable despite
             preventive measures ).
30 .  Policy measures may be classed into three groups :
      ( a ) those which have to be taken at an international level and require
            international agreement (e.g. reduction of COg emissions );
      (b ) those which may be taken at a European level (e.g. planning for
            water resources , agricultural and forest planning ) or in specific
            countries e.g. through development aid programmes ( conservation of
            tropical forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems , appropriate energy
            policies , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                             41
      < c ) those of an intermediate character (e.g. decisions on the energy mix
            to be adopted , taking account of <a ) and of particular European
            conditions ).
     The group to which any particular Measure belongs may determine the time
     necessary to its adoption and require a proper approach .
     Measures of an international character may ignore specific local
     conditions ; local measures cannot do so .
31 . The above mentioned factors have to be taken into account in order to
     correctly coordinate the policy decision timing and the research timing .
     In fact this coordination is essential for two reasons :
     ( a ) the uncertainties as regards the climate change and its impacts
            increase with increasing spatial and temporal definition : the
            ultimate answer one is expecting from scientific research is what
            will happen , when , where . Now the "what " becomes increasingly
            uncertain as the range of the "when" and "where" becomes smaller .
            Yet such knowledge is vital for any planning which decision makers
            could consider .
     (b ) in order to take policy decisions it is crucial to know
            - which danger, when and where , one has to face and what
              consequences upon the environment , the economy, the society at
              large are to be expected;
            - how to implement at best the measures decided;
     Therefore, the study of policy options and scientific research have to
     go in parallel , and there must be a continuous feedback between the two .
     Only in this way can one avoid that decisions are unduly delayed or that
     they are taken without taking fully into account research results .
     Research itself should benefit from that interaction process, by being
     continuously reoriented towards specific objectives and actual problems
     and needs .
 ---pagebreak---                                          42 -
 Research activities
32 . Already since 1980, the Commission of the European Communities is
     carrying out a research programme in Climatology, whose main research
     areas are concerned with the study of the evolution of climate in the
     past , with climate modelling, with the man-induced climate change and
     with the impacts that such change could have on European land and water
     resources . The symposium held in Brussels in November 1986 ( Annex B )
     was organised in the frame of this programme and was meant to provide
     the scientific consensus available at that date .
     Research is being focussed especially on the climatic effects of
     greenhouse gases , and climatologically significant processes imperfectly
     understood as yet , such as atmosphere-ocean interactions , the water
     vapour-greenhouse feedback , the cloud feedback , aerosol and cloud
     climatology , biospheric sources and sinks of trace gases , climatic
     aspects of ozone changes and troposphere-stratosphere interactions , the
     effects of glabal warming on the melting rate of ice shelves .
33 . In the near future the Climatology research programme of the Commission
     will put a greater stress on the impacts which climate change could have
     on important sectors of the European environment .
     Such intensified research should concern in particular :
     ( 1 ) The rise in sea level and its impacts on the European coasts
           ( prediction of future sea-level changes , the change in storm surge
           risks for European coastal installations , the impacts on coastal
           ecosystems and coastal land use ).
     ( 2 ) The impacts of a changing climate on European crops, forests , water
           resources ( bioclimatic shifts of crops and forests , changes in
           productivity, the sensitivity of European crops to increased CC^ and
           climate change, the impacts on surface and ground water supplies ).
     ( 3 ) The effects of the climate change as regards the progressive
           aridification of the Mediterranean Europe ( effects of climatic and
           meteorological factors on soil degradation , the impact of
           progressive drought on vegetation ).
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 43 -
      (4) The occurrence and frequency of extreme events and their impacts
            upon agriculture and industry (the impacts of the alternance of
            droughts and heavy rainfall on European land resources, the impacts
            of meteorological extremes such as hail and frost on European
            agriculture and industry ).
      ( 5 ) The melting of Alpine glaciers .
      (6) The study of the social , economic and political factors conditioning
            probable future emission rates of greenhouse gases , and likely to be
            affected by any policy option that could be adopted .
      ( 7) The study of socio-economic impacts , in particular in the Community ,
            due to climatic changes , for the various relevant aspects , such as
            consequences for agriculture , consequences for cost line regions of
            the sea level rise , etc .
     Such research should be supplemented by a sound monitoring of
     atmospheric and oceanic conditions . International agreements should
     allow to place instrumentation where it is needed and to have access to
     space based monitoring systems . A vital component of a monitoring
     programme is the utilisation of space technology to understand the
     processes which control the earth 's climate system and its sensitivity
     to natural and man-induced changes .
34 . Environmental constraints , especially the reduction of air pollution,
     call for a balanced pursuit of environmental and energy objectives .
     As far as COj is concerned, the objective can also be achieved through
     progress in the development and availability of techniques, processes
     and products allowing rational use of energy and the efficient and
     economic use of renewable energy sources and by safe nuclear energy .
     These considerations provide ample justification for a specific energy
     R&D programme in the fields of renewable energies, rational use of
     energy and safe nuclear technology which will ensure continuity of the
     progress made since 1975 and guarantee that optimum benefits be gained
     from the new energy technologies developed so far .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 44 -
35 . Elimination of COg at the source could eventually become a new domain of
     resarch .   No economically or technically feasible technologies are yet
     available .
     New directions for research in this field should be explored .
36. Moreover, the management of the CO^ problem implies both the definition
     of global reduction objectives and the implementation of these
     objectives . The first aspect of the problem requires to determine by
     how much the emissions will need to be reduced and the pace of that
     reduction .   The implementation action will have to determine the
     economic activities that will bear the major part of this reduction, the
     allocation of this reduction among the different actors and the
     institutional approaches to arrive at these objectives .
     System Analysis can, in principle , provide the adequate basis for
     looking at these questions . Energy-Environment models give the
     possibility of finding efficient ways of achieving emission goals ;
     Climate models are there to assess the impact of emissions on the
     environment and to help construct scenarios of adaptive measures ;
     Energy-economy models allow to compute the impact on the economic
     systems of the costs incurred by the reduction of emissions .
     The models developed in the System Analysis Community research programme
     should be adapted and used in the direction defined above for analysing
     energy related CC^ emissions reduction measures and programmes .
     The aim of such research would be to evaluate the feasibility and the
     costs of various reduction objectives as well as to assess their impact
     on the energy and economy sectors .
 Préventive action (greenhouse gases émission réduction )
37 . Preventive action is any action aiming at curbing the expected increase
     in greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations .
     This could mean aiming first at reducing the rate of increase of those
     concentrations and in the longer term at stabilizing them . Reduction of
     greenhouse gases concentrations does not seem at this stage a realistic
     objective but could be a very long term goal .
 ---pagebreak---                                        45
38 . The only way at hand to control future trends of greenhouse gases
     concentrations is limiting man-made emissions including , in case of
     reversing the present trend of deforestation in tropical regions .
     Preventative action is further discussed with reference to the most
     relevant greenhouse gases here below .
39. Carbon dioxide (CO^) emissions
     As shown in paragraph 4 of chapter I , COg emissions are mostly due to
     fossil fuels burning and forest wood burning or forest biomass
     decomposition .
     Preventive action could therefore include measures to be taken in the
     energy sector ( including energy for industry and transportation ) and in
     the forestry and agricultural sectors as far as action in these sectors
     could help to preserve forests .
     A tentative list of actions aiming at CO^ emissions reduction which
     could be studied might include :
     A. Energy related measures for CO ,
        There are several types of technical energy related measures that
        could curb CC^ emissions , as listed below.
        Of course not all those measures are equally efficient or
        cost-effective and one should make a clear distinction between the
        physical potential of COg emission reduction of a given measure and
        its economic viability .
        The following technical measures , which are listed without any
        ranking or priority, may provide ways to reduce COg emissions from
        carbon-based fuels :
        a . Energy Efficiency
            - improving the efficiency of energy demand (e.g. more efficient
              light bulbs, better insulation, more efficient cars, electronic
              regulations , etc .);
 ---pagebreak---                                - 46 -
    - improving the efficiency of energy supply (e.g. cogeneration ,
       introduction of combined cycle possibly integrated with
       high-temperature nuclear reactors , develoment of MHD , etc .);
b . Energy Supply
    - fuel switching to less COg emitting fuels (the relation of CO2
     • emitted quantities with regard to a unit of energy produce for
       the combustion of lignite , hard coal , oil and natural gas is as
       follows : 121 , 100, 88, 58 );
    - increased use of non carbon based renewable energies ( pe . solar ,
       windpower , hydro, geothermal , photovoltaics );
    - increased use of nuclear power .
c . Biotic sources
    - Use biomass for energy purposes ( such as wood for heating or
       cooking in developing countries ) in a sustainable way so that
       the COg atmospheric balance is not affected significantly;
d . CO^ technology abatement
    - Although at present no economically or technically feasible
       technologies seem to be available , this possibility should not
       be excluded for the future .
e . Long-term development
    - Introduction of non-carbon based energy systems in their various
       forms combined with electricity and hydrogen as secondary energy
       carriers .
Any policy decision aiming at reducing CC^ emissions in the energy
sector should be carefully examined taking fully into account the
specific objectives and constraints existing at international ,
community and national level in this sector . On the other hand, any
future decision in the field of energy policy should take into
account the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 47 -
    System analysis models have been extensively used in the past for
    exploring consequences of economic-energy-environmental related
    measures and the use of such analytical models may provide
    information on the feasibility of measures to achieve COg reduction
    goals . Scenarios analysis can complete such information and identify
    technologies which have a good chance of contributing to that
    objective and hence should deserve more attention .
8 . Measures related to forestry and natural ecosystems
    a . Conserve forest resources
        - promote appropriate agricultural practices and organization in
          developing countries to avoid that agricultural land demand
          cause further deforestation ;
        - assist developing countries to improve their ability to manage
          forests in a manner that ensures that they are exploited on a
          sustainable basis ;
        - reinforce prevention and fighting of forest fires ;
        - promote actions to monitor and restore declining forests ;
        - provide alternatives to and improve the efficiency of the
          utilisation of fuel-wood for cooking in developing countries .
    b . Promote afforestation
        - increase reafforestation efforts notably in subtropical and
          tropical regions ;
        - promote agroforestry, especially in developing countries ,
    c . Natural ecosystem protection
        - promote the conservation of ecosystems directly or indirectly
          relevant for the global carbon cycle .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 48 -
40 . CFCs «lissions
     Possible preventative actions are :
     a . Constrain use
     b . Constrain production
     c . Recapture and recycle or destroy
41 . CH^, N^O Missions
     Actions which could be considered are :
     a . Minimize CH^ losses in extraction, transport and use of natural gas .
     b. Minimize CH^ losses from landfills .
     c . Minimize ^0 emission from fossil fuels burning .
     d . Study possible improvements in livestocks management , rice
         cultivation and lagoons management , aiming at reducing CH^ release .
     e . Study possible improved fertilizing management practices to reduce
         ^0 release from nitrogen fertilizers use .
42 . The possible use of mechanisms such as taxation of products that cause
     greenhouse gas emissions or of emissions themselves where this is
     feasible , could be considered to stimulate or complement technology
     measures .
 Planned adaptation
43 . Planned adaptation involves taking account of potential greenhouse
     impacts in long-term planning, most likely at the regional and national
     levels .
     Consideration of such measures in long term planning becomes necessary
     if it is believed that :
     - impacts are likely to occur which society will not be able to adjust
        to in the short term ;
     - implementation of preventative measures is unlikely to be sufficiently
        effective in time ( e.g. even if emission controls were implemented
        now, it is possible that significant impacts will occur due to the
        atmospheric warming to which we are already committed ).
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 49
     At this stage it is not possible to cover, even in qualitative and
     simple way, all the adaptive measures which could be worth considering
     in relation to the various potential impacts of the greenhouse effect .
     However , it is worth giving some indications concerning potential
     measures for possible sea-level rise and for impacts on agriculture .
44 . Possible adaptation measures concerning sea level rise could include :
     - Sea walls / flood barriers .
     - National flood insurance programmes .
     - Construction of reservoirs (to combat increased salinity ).
     - Abandonment of developed regions in low lying areas .
     - Other relocation of populations away from vulnerable sites .
     - Protection of coastal ecosystems .
45 . Examples of measures which could be considered in order to adapt to
     impacts on agriculture are :
     - More efficient use of fertilisers .
     - Changes of land use to optimise and to stabilize production;
     - Changes of policy to maintain national food security;
     - Changes to policies supporting land management , such as soil erosion
        control , water management , etc .
 Cooperation with developing countries
46 . All the above measures , both as regards preventive action and as regards
     planned adaptation , should also be developed to take into account the
     needs of the developing countries , and how the Community 's development
     aid policy can contribute towards the prevention and the adaptation of
     the greenhouse effect .   In particular :
     a ) by enhancing the type of projects that can actively contribute to
         prevention such as those which are directed at reducing
         deforestation , conserving wetlands , coastal ecosystems and the
         genetic diversity or arid ecosystems ;
 ---pagebreak---                                  - 50 -
b) by taking Into account the consequences of the greenhouse effect in
    medium-term project planning ( e.g. agricultural programmes , livestock
    programmes , fisheries and any projects related to long-term
    investments on lowlands which may be affected by the forecasted
    increase of ocean level );
c ) by ensuring that base tine data being gathered for the purpose of
    implementing development projects be made accessible to the Community
    research programme on the greenhouse effect .
 ---pagebreak---  IV . CONCLUSIONS OF THE COMMISSION
47.   The Community should implement fully the Vienna Convention for the
      protection of the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol on substances
      that deplete the ozone layer . This will involve the adoption and
      application by all Member states of the proposed Council Decision/
      Regulation and Resolution agreed to by the Council on 16 June 1988 .
48 . The Community should participate actively in the efforts toward
      renegotiation by 1990 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that
      deplete the ozone layer . The Protocol should be revised so that the
      CFC 's emissions could be almost totally eliminated by the year 2000 as
      recommended by the Toronto conference .
49 .  The Commmunity should welcome initiation of discussions on the
      possibilities of an international agreement for the future protection of
      the atmosphere . It should be prepared to give an important contribution
      to the preparation and negotiation of such an agreement which might
      include the establishment of specific targets for limiting emissions of
      greenhose gases as well as definition of emission reduction measures and
      programmes .
5C .  Therefore / the Commission will take the initiative to launch a
      substantial poli cy-options study programme to evaluate the feasibility ,
      costs and likely results of possible measures to limit greenhouse gases
      emissions . Results of such programme would give useful inputs to the
      international debate on the issue .
      The main areas of such programme should be :
        - identification and technical assessment of measures and technologies
           in various relevant fields capable to reduce greenhouse gases
           emissions ;
        - analysis of economic , industrial , energy, social and institutional
           implications and impacts of the above mentioned possible measures
           and technologies ;
        - structuring and evaluating policy scenarios referred in particular
           to possible strategic targets for COg emission ceilings .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 52 -
         A reliable greenhouse gases emission inventory would be needed in
         this frame .
         The focus of the exercise should be on Europe 1n a first instance .
       - establishing a decision analysis framework in order to link
         probabilistically policy options and their likely results an
         benefits .
       - identifying and evaluating adaptive policies to cope with
         unavoidable effects under the different scenarios resulting from the
         decision analysis exercise .
     The Commission has developed several energy-economy and
     energy-environment models and those models and the experience gained in
     policy analyses of energy-environment interactions should be fully
     exploited when starting new work on the greenhouse issue .
     The above mentioned work programme should be closely linked to the
     research and development activities on relevant subjects such as
     climatology and energy .
     Moreover a framework should be created to allow systematic exchange of
     views and rapid feedbacks among scientists and policy makers .
51 . The greenhouse effect is a global problem, the Community should
     therefore play an important part in the definition of a global policy ,
     involving in particular developing countries , towards a sustainable
     development .
     Community work on the greenhouse issue should be structured and
     scheduled so to allow synergism and collaboration with international
     organizations and third countries . In particular the Commission work
     programme should fully take account of parallel activities in the frame
     of the panel on climate change of WMO / UNEP and of OECD and IEA .
52 . The Community and its Member States should by now take into account in
     their policy decisions ( related to energy or other sectors relevant to
     the issue ) the problem of potential climate changes linked to the
     greenhouse effect .
     Early consideration of such issue could avoid higher costs in future .
 ---pagebreak---                                         - 53 -
 53 . Moreover the Commission will take urgent action to reinforce and expand
      efforts in the field of energy savings / energy efficiency improvement /
      development of new energy sources/ use of safe nuclear technology. The
      accelerated development and promotion of innovative commercial-scale
      technologies in these fields should be given high priority .
      There is no doubt that such action is justified because of both energy
      and environmental requirements/ independent of uncertainties on some
      scientific aspects of the greenhouse issue .
      Of special importance would be the possibility to quantify energy
      efficiency improvements in terms of CO^ reductions .
54 .  The Community should sustain vigorous research programmes on all the
      retevant aspects of the greenhouse issue and should promote new energy
      technologies having the potential to limit COg emissions .
55 .  Activities should be reinforced and expanded in the frame of existing
      cooperation agreements of the EC with mediterranean countries with the
      aim both of promoting sustainable development in those countries and of
      helping them to prevent likely impacts of the greenhouse issue on their
      environment .
56 .  The Commission will also prepare urgent action in the field of aid to
      developing countries both as regards preventive and as regards
      adaptation measures .
      In particular :
        - An attempt should be made to classify and map geographical areas
          which are particularly vulnerable to the greenhouse effect ( such as ,
          for instance , islands whose mean altitude above sea level is
          precariously low, coastal states , etc . Such maping would form a
          reference basis against which policies could be evaluated . It would
          certainly be a first step towards adapting policy as regards aid to
          developing countries .
        - The greenhouse effect should as much as possible be taken into
          account in considering the feasibility of major projects such as ,
          for instance , dams , agricultural projects which involve major
          modifications to the environment and in being particularly cautious
          in evaluating any project which may have a negative input on
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 54 -
         tropical -forests , wetlands , coastal ecosystems or mountain
         ecosystems .  Instruments should be developed to assess the long-term
         sensitivity of development projects to the greenhouse effect .
         Preparedness against natural disaster also at some stage have to be
         increased, in respect of the type of calamities which the greenhouse
         effect may make more likely . ( For example the strength of tropical
         storms which is expected to increase .) In preparing national
         regional conservation strategies one should ensure that adequate
         account is taken of the greenhouse effect .
57 . In parallel to the work needed to evaluate possible policy options ,
     existing research programmes should be strenghten to better understand
     the potential impacts of the greenhouse effect on European regions .
     These programmes should consider both the physical and the
     socio-economic direct and indirect impacts .
     In this frame the risks for the coastline regions of the Community
     related to possible sea level rise should be assessed so that
     information useful for land use planning is available to developers and
     competent authorities .
58 . Finally, the Commission will set up a Committee to exchange information
     on all the aspects of the greenhouse issue . Member States and the
     Commission should be represented in this Committee .
 ---pagebreak---                      55
                 ANNEX
Recent Major events on the greenhouse issue
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 56 -
A. The "VILLACH" Conference ( International conference on the assessment and
   the rate of CO^ and of other greenhouse gases In climate variations end
   associated Impacts (Villach - Austria, 9-15 October 1985))
   This conference was jointly convened by UNEP, WHO and ICSU with
   participation of scientists from twenty nine developed and developing
   countries .
   The following sentences appear in the statement adopted by this
   conference :
      "Many important economic and social decisions are being made today on
       long-term projects - major water resource management activities such
       as irrigation and hydro-power ; drought relief ; agricultural land use ;
       structural designs and coastal engineering projects ; and energy
       planning - all based on the assumption that past climatic data ,
       without modification , are a reliable guide to the future . This is no
       longer a good assumption since the increasing concentrations of
       greenhouse gases are expected to cause a significant warming of the
       global climate in the next century ."
      "While some warming of climate now appears inevitable due to past
       actions , the rate and degree of future warming could be profoundly
       affected by governmental policies on energy conservation, use of
       fossil fuels , and the emission of some greenhouse gases ."
      "Based on evidence of effects of past climatic changes , there is
       little doubt that a future change in climate of the order of
       magnitude obtained from climate models for a doubling of the
       atmospheric CC^ concentration could have profound effects on global
       ecosystems , agriculture , water resources and sea ice ."
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 57 -
       "Governments and regional inter-governmental organizations should take
         into account the results of this assessment (Villach 1985 ) in their
        policies on social and economic development , environmental
        programmes, and control of emissions of radiatively active gases ."
       "Public information efforts should be increased by international
        agencies and governments on the issues of greenhouse gases , climate
        change and sea level , including wide distribution of the documents of
        this Conference ( Villach 1985 )."
       "Major uncertainties remain in predictions of changes in global and
        regional precipitation and temperature patterns . Ecosystem responses
        are also imperfectly known . Nevertheless , the understanding of the
        greenhouse question is sufficiently developed that scientists and
        policy-makers should begin an active collaboration to explore the
        effectiveness of alternative policies and adjustments . Efforts
        should be made to design methods necessary for such collaboration ."
B. The EEC Symposium on " C02 and other greenhouse gases : climatic and
   associated impacts (Brussels, 3-5 November 1986)
   Upon the initiative of Or . K.H. Narjes , Vice-President of the Commission
   of European Communities , a Symposium organised by the CEC , OG XII , was
   held in Brussels from 3-5 November 1986 . It was attended by about 60
   leading European and US scientists , who reviewed the whole issue of the
   climate change that will take place as a consequence of the accummulation
   of the atmospheric CO^ and other greenhouse gases .
   Further to the conclusions on the scientific aspects of the greenhouse
   issue , mentioned in the relevant sections of this document , the following
   recommendations were presented as a conclusion of this Symposium :
      "- The time has come for taking a decisive step toward converting the
          dialogue between scientists and decision makers from a remote,
          intermittent and casual reading of reports of the other party to a
          closer and more interactive exchange of views .
 ---pagebreak---                                         58 -
        - It is recommended that a means be established for obtaining the
            necessary exchange of information between policy analysts , decision
            makers and the scientific community involved in the issue ."
C. The workshops on "Developing policies for responding to climatic change"
   (Villach ~ Austria, 28 September- 2 October 1987 and Bellagio - Italy,
   9-13 November 1987)
   These meetings were called following the scientific consensus reached at
   the Villach conference in order to "start policy analysis to identify the
   widest possible range of social responses for limiting or adapting to
   climatic changes ".
   Apart from the statement mentioned in paragraph 28 of this document , the
   following conclusions / recommendations were presented :
      " Immediate steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions
        ( 1 ) Ozone Protocol Immediate approval and implementation of the
        Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (thereby reducing
        CFC emissions ). Recommend that it be ratified urgently and that
       after expedited scientific review the parties consider acceleration
       of the schedule for reductions in CFCs and eventual elimination of
       emissions not only for ozone layer protection but particularly for
       greenhouse gas limitation .
        ( 2 ) Energy Policies
       Governments should immediately begin to reexamine their long-term
       energy strategies with the goals of achieving high end-use
       efficiency, reducing multiple forms of air pollution and reducing CO2
       emissions .    Research and development on alternative ( non-fossil )
       energy systems must be greatly intensified .
        ( 3 ) Déforestation Policies
       Recommend support for increased measures to reduce deforestation ,
       e.g. locally appropriate actions along the lines of the Tropical
        Forest Action Plan , 1987 .  Such measures are currently necessary
       because of the effects of tropical deforestation on agriculture ,
 ---pagebreak---                                 59 -
energy, soil erosion , flooding and drought , etc . The contribution of
deforestation to greenhouse gas induced climatic change is a powerful
additional reason for measures to reduce deforestation .
 ( 4 ) Other Trace Gases
Measures should be taken to avoid industrial and societal actions in
the future which unduly contribute to emissions of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere . Examples include landfills that emit methane; ^0
reduction strategies ; agricultural practices, etc .
Immediate steps to limit the impact of sea-level rise
( 5 ) River and Coastal lone Policies
International unions of geographic , coastal and geodetic and soil
sciences and /or government agencies should develop maps to identify
coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise, river regulation and
intensifying land-use . Planning for large new industrial , tourist
and urban installations near the sea should allow for the risks of
possible sea-level rise .
Immediate steps to improve understanding of the greenhouse effect and
options for dealing with it
( 6 ) Management tools
Policy and scientific research should investigate further the utility
of particular goals as management tools . An environmental goal
expressed in terms of a rate of change of temperature or sea-level is
easy to relate to observed historic rates of change . Such an
environmental goal is related to the ambient concentration of
greenhouse gases (expressed in terms of CO^ equivalence) and thus to
the emissions and for each of these , regulatory targets can be set in
line with the long-term environmental goal .
 ---pagebreak---                               - 60
 ( 7) Monitoring
The problem of significant climate warming may call for a
considerable increase in existing available monitoring activities,
both with regard to global climate and its variability and sea-level
changes, atmospheric chemistry and rainfall chemistry, as well as the
consequences for the environment of any significant warming .
It is therefore recommended that WMO /WCP (World Meteorological
Organization / World Climate Programme ) and UNEP / 6EMS ( Unite Nations
Environment Programme / Global Environmental Monitoring System ) carry
out a joint study of :
- what new climate observing system activites are required for
    monitoring the changing climate ;
- what activities are required for monitoring the consequences of the
    changing climate .
The IOC through the Global Sea Level Observing System should give
urgent attention to strengthening the monitoring of sea-level changes
worldwide .
( 8 ) Research
ICSU, UNEP and WMO jointly support the World Climate Programme ( WCP ),
which is the focus for the further study of both basic research
issues concerning global climatic change and questions about climatic
impact . The World Climate Research Programme ( WCRP) is an important
component of the WCP, as the assessment of possible or likely future
climatic changes rests on a comprehensive understanding of the global
climate system .
Similarly, the new research programme IGBP ( International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme ), initiated by ICSU, addresses the scientific
problems that we are now confronting when trying to understand the
biological and geochemical interactions that contribute to future
climatic change and are of importance for understanding climatic
impacts .
Increased support for scientific research for both the WCRP and IGBP
should be given high priority ."
 ---pagebreak---                                         61
 D. The Brundtland Commission' s report
    The World Commission on environment end Development has been created on
    the basis of an UN General Assembly resolution in 1983 as an independent
    body to formulate and present proposals and recommandations concerning
    the critical environment and development problems with the aim of
    promoting a sustainable development .
    Its report was presented to the General Assembly of UN during its 42nd
    Session in the fall of 1987 .
     This report asks for a urgent start of negotiating procedures to develop
     international agreement on strategies to cope with the greenhouse issue .
     It is suggested to consider :
     "- improved monitoring and assessment of the evolving phenomena ;
      - increased research to improve knowledge about the origins ,
        mechanisms , and effects of the phenomena ;
      - the development of internationally agreed policies for the reduction
        of the causative gases ; and
      - adoption of strategies needed to minimize damage and cope with the
        climate changes and rising sea level ."
      The report also suggests that such negotiations should aim at an
      international convention on "management policies for all
      environmentally reactive chemicals released into the atmosphere".
E. The European Parliament resolution
   The European Parliament has adopted on 12th September 1986 the following
    resolution on measures to counteract the rising concentration of COg in
   the atmosphere :
   * The European Parliament
      - having regard to the motion for a resolution tabled by Mr. Linkohr on
        research and policy measures to counteract the rising concentration
        of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere ( 'greenhouse effect' ) ( Doc .
        B2-1430 / 84 ).
 ---pagebreak---                                    62 -
 - having regard to the report of the Committee on Energy , Research and
   Technology and to the opinion of the Committee on the Environment ,
   Public Health and Consumer Protection ( Doc . A2-68 / 86 ).
 A. noting the growing scientific certainty that the earth 's average
    temperature s rising as a result of non-natural releases into the
    atmosphere of carbon-dioxide and propellants from fossil-fuel
    burning, intensive farming and industrial activities and
    deforestation respectively .
 B. noting that an increasing temperature build-up, which is greater at
    the poles than at the equator , will bring about a shift in the
    earth 's climatic zones , resulting in radical and , in some cases ,
    disastrous changes in economic-activity patterns .
 C. pointing out that the only scientifically established facts about
    global temperature build-up are the scale thereof and thus the
    number of years remaining until its effects become apparent ,
    assuming no change in human-activity patterns .
 D. pointing out the need to obtain essential scientific data on the
    slow but perceptible changes in the environment of the world in
    order to establish the extent of the changes taking place , and the
    measures to be taken to avoid or reduce their unfavourable effects
    and to exploit beneficial consequences .
1.  Stresses that it is imperative to make more-reaching countermeasures
    than those currently implemented to combat pollution , provided such
    measures are directed at releases of both carbon dioxide and
    propellants , since , contrary to earlier assumption , the latter are
    just as significant a cause of temperature build-up as the former ;
2.  Calls upon the Commission , in future activities in the field of
    agricultural , industrial and energy policy and in negotiations with
    both national and international authorities , to put forward measures
    with a view to a substantial reduction of harmful discharges , thus
    benefiting the environment too;
 ---pagebreak---                                      63 -
  3. Emphasizes in this connection the automatic benefit to be gained
       from large-scale energy-saving and rational use of energy, possibly
       in tandem with exploitation of cleaner energy sources and flue-gas
       purification respectively;
  4. Calls for a worldwide policy of reafforestation, for which the
       Community should provide an example with its own forestry policy;
  5 . Calls for financial Community development policy measures to help
      put an end to the deforestation of rain forests in Third World
       countries ;
  6 . Calls on the Council when drawing up the new framework programme for
      research to allocate more resources to the area of climatology,
      especially relating to changing temperature gradients including
      ocean-atmosphere interaction;
  7.  Stresses that preventing pollution of the world 's seas is an
      essential requirement for climatic stability;
 8.   Recalls that it is incumbent upon the industrialized countries of
      the Northern hemisphere, which are largely responsible for
      jeopardizing climate , to ensure that the developing nations are
      given access to the latest technological know-how;
 9.   Instructs its Members, in collaboration with the relevant scientific
      quarters , to inform the public - and particularly the operators
      directly responsible - about the implications of the human
      activities in question, while explaining the need for effective
      measures ;
10 .  Instructs its committee responsible to include in their opinions a
      climatic-impact assessment of future Community-level activities with
      a view to reducing the current temperature build-up;
11 .  Instructs its President to forward this resolution and the report of
      its committee to the Council and the Commission ."
 ---pagebreak---             Arbeitsprogramm der Kommission zur Beurteilung der
                 Möglichkeiten zur Verringerung der mit dem
                     “ Trelbhauseffekt " verbundenen Risiken
I.  PROGRAMM INHALT
 Das Programm soll die Grundlagen für die Bestimmung der Rolle schaffen ,
 die die Gemeinschaft und die Mitgi iedstaaten bei der Festlegung und
 Befürwortung der notwendigen Massnahmen zur Verringerung der Risiken des
 Treibhauseffekts in den entsprechenden internationalen Gremien übernehmen
 könnten .
 Hierzu sieht das Arbeitsprogramm folgende Themenkreise vor :
 A. Bestimmung der Möglichkeiten zur Vermeidung bzw . Reduzierung
    der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen
    Ermittlung der notwendigen Massnahmen zur         Erreichung strategischer
    Sollwerte    für     die   Verringerung    der   Emissionen  verschiedener
    Treibhausgase .
    Hierzu bedarf es jeweils einer genauen Einschätzung der bestehenden
    Möglichkeiten zur Emissionsverringerung , des entsprechenden Grads der
    Emissionsverringerung und des Massnahmenpakets , das zur Erreichung
    strategischer Sollwerte erforderlich ist .     Das Massnahmenpotential zur
    Vermeidung bzw . Reduzierung der Emissionen soll in folgenden Bereichen
    geprüft werden :
    - Energieerzeugung ;
    - Energieverbrauch ( einschliesslich Verkehr );
    - Industriproduktion ;
    - Verwendung der Produkte ;
 ---pagebreak---                                      - 2 -
   - landwirtschaftliche Erwerbstät Igke I ten .
   Es bedarf eines geeigneten Konzepts , um der spezifischen Situation der
   Länder oder Ländergruppen Rechnung zu tragen .          Insbesondere sind
    folgende Aspekte zu berücksichtigen :
   - Stand der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ;
   - derzeltlge Energlepol it iken ;
   - Géographie .
B. Auswirkungen möglicher Massnahmen zur Emissionsverringerung
   Die Möglichkeiten der     Emissionsverringerung sind unter        folgenden
   Aspekten zu prüfen
   - technische und industrielle Auswirkungen ;
   - finanzielle und wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen ;
   - politische , institutionelle und soziale Auswirkungen .
C. Entwicklung eines Rahmens für die Entscheidungsanalyse
   Entwicklung    eines  Rahmens     zur   Strukturierung  der   vorliegenden
   Informationen    über  alle    Aspekte    des  Treibhauseffekts ,  um   den
   voraussichtlichen Nutzen    ( d.h .  die Verringerung des Risikos einer
   Klimaänderung u.a .) bestimmter Lösungsmöglichkeiten zu ermitteln .
   Dabei sind folgende Gesichtspunkte zu berücksichtigen :
   - Emissionen und Emissionsverringerung ;
   - Auswirkungen der Emissionsverringerung ;
   - verfügbare wissenschaftliche Daten über den potentiellen
      Nutzen alternativer Emissionskontrollen .
   Bei der Festlegung des Rahmens sind die Unsicherheitsfaktoren in bezug
   auf Emissionen , Wirksamkeit der Kontrollen , Klimaänderung und
   Klimaeffekte zu berücksichtigen und die wahrscheinlichsten Ergebnisse
   verschiedener Massnahmen zu ermitteln .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 3 -
    Anhand dieses Rahmens soll ausserdem festgestellt werden , welche
    Auswirkungen eine Verzögerung der Aktion haben wird . Durch
    Strukturierung       des    Problems     und    Ermittlung      wesentlicher
    Unsicherheitsbereiche , in denen konkrete Ergebnisse von entscheidender
    Bedeutung sein können , wird mit diesem Rahmen ein wichtiges Werkzeug
    zur Beurteilung von Massnahmen und zur Ausrichtung der künftigen
    Forschung auf Sch iüsse I fragen der Entscheidungsanalyse geschaffen .
D. Einschätzung des voraussichtlichen Nutzens verschiedener Möglichkeiten
    anhand eines Rahmens zur Entscheidungsanalyse ; Erstellung von Kl ima -
    und Impaktszenarien aufgrund der Möglichkeiten zur Emissionskontrolle
    Anhand    des    Rahmens    werden   die   potentiellen     Ergebnisse   der
    Möglichkeiten zur Emissionsverringerung und die               entsprechenden
    Zeitpläne     ( Szenarios )   ermittelt . Ferner     soll     die   relative
    Wahrscheinlichkeit des damit erreichten Nutzens angegeben werden .
E . Bestimmung und Bewertung der notwendigen Anpassungsmassnahmen für die
    gemäss Punkt D erarbeiteten Szenarios
    Selbst bei Einführung von Massnahmen zur Emissionskontrolle wird es
    noch   immer    Restrisiken   durch   ehemalige  und    weiterhin   erzeugte
    Emissionen in die Atmosphäre geben . Daher sind Anpassungsmassnahmen
    ( z.B. zum Schutz der Menschen , des Eigentums , der Landwirtschaft ,
    sowie der wirtschaftlichen und natürlichen Mittel ) erforderlich , um
    diese Risiken     In den Griff    zu bekommen .  Im Rahmen des Programms
    werden die wichtigsten Restrisiken ihrem Umfang nach bestimmt und
    lokalisiert und die kostenmässigen und zeitlichen Auswirkungen
    verschiedener Anpassungsmassnahmen geschätzt .      Dabei sind Prioritäten
    für diese Massnahmen zu setzen , um die grösstmögl iche Reduzierung der
    Restrisiken mit den verfügbaren Mitteln zu erreichen und den
    Schwerpunkt auf Schlüsselbereiche zu legen .
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 4 -
II . DETAILLIERTE AUFSTELLUNG DER TÄTIGKEITEN
     Die Durchführung des Programms erfordert unter anderem folgende
     Arbeiten :
 A. Emissionsanalyse         und    Bestimmung        der    Möglichkeiten_zur
     Emiss lonsverr Ingerung
      I.     Erstellung von Em iss ionsvor hersagen für die einzelnen
             Treibhausgase . Die Emissionen sind ( a ) nach Regionen und ( b )
             nach    politischen ,     strategischen       und   wirtschaftlichen
             Gruppierungen aufzuschlüsseln .
     ii .    Bestimmung der Faktoren ( abgesehen von Kontroi Imassnahmen ) , die
             voraussichtliche künftige Emissionen beeinflussen werden .
             Einschätzung der Wahrscheinlichkeit dieser Faktoren und
             Entwicklung alternativer Emissionsszenarios .
     iii .   Ermittlung der vorhandenen Möglichkeiten zur Emiss ionskontroi le
            der einzelnen Treibhausgase . Einschätzung des Grads der
            potentiellen Reduktion nach den jeweiligen Emissionsszenarios .
B. Einschätzung der Auswirkungen möglicher Emissionskontrollen
     I.     Bestimmung der Durchführbarkeit , der Kosten und des Zeitplans
            der verschiedenen Massnahmen zur Emissionsverringerung .
     II .   Einschätzung der sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen .
     iii .  Bestimmung der Ausbreitungseffekte ( a ) innerhalb einzelner
            Länder , ( b ) Länderübergreifend , ( c ) in bezug auf politische und
            strategische Gruppierungen .
 ---pagebreak--- C. Festlegung eines Rahmens zur Integration der Im Laufe des Programms
   erarbeiteten Informationen
   Anhand dieses Rahmens sollt(en ) :
        die   Auswirkungen    alternativer    Massnahmen   einschliesslich   der
        Kosten und des potentiellen Nutzens aufgezeigt werden ;
   -    die   Auswirkungen   von   Massnahmen    zu  verschiedenen   Zeitpunkten
        erläutert werden ;
   -    die Fundiertheit etwaiger Entscheidungen ( über Kontroll - und
        Anpassungsstrategien )         unter        Berücksichtigung         der
        Unsicherheitsfaktoren in Bezug auf Vorhersagen und verfügbare
        wissenschaftliche Daten nachgewiesen werden ;
        ein Schwerpunkt auf die künftigen Forschungsarbeiten gelegt
        werden , die zur Unterstützung der erforderlichen Entscheidungen
        notwendig sind .
D. Einschätzung von Strategien zur Emissionskontrolle
   i.       Bestimmung       des       voraussichtlichen        Nutzens      der
            Emissionskontrol ( Strategien .  Diese    Aufgabe   erfordert   eine
            kritische    Überprüfung     der    Zusammenhänge     zwischen   den
           Treibhausgaskonzentrationen und der globalen Erwärmung unter
           besonderer Berücksichtigung der Rückkopplungssysteme , des
            zeitlichen Verlaufs und der Auswirkungen auf regionale Klimate .
   II .    Aufgrund      dieser      kritischen      Überprüfung      ist    die
           Wahrscheinlichkeit     der   alternativen    Vorhersagen   und  ihrer
            Implikationen einzuschätzen .
 ---pagebreak---                                           - 6 -
              Dabei sollen die Meinungen der bedeutendsten Sachverständigen
              berücksichtigt und nach Möglichkeit Wahrscheinlichkeitsfaktoren
              zugeordnet werden , um die Unsicherheit verschiedener Ergebnisse
              zu verdeutlichen .
       lii .  Anhand dieser Daten und der erarbeiteten Informationen über
              Emissionsverringerungen ( A ) und deren Folgen ( B ) werden mit
              Hilfe des Entscheidungsrahmens ( C ) Kosten , Nutzen und sonstige
              Auswirkungen alternativer       Massnahmen zur     Emissionskontrolle
              eingeschätzt .
  E. Beurteilung von Anpassungsmassnahmen
      i.     Prüfung     der     Auswirkungen     versch iedener   Erwärmungsstufen
              insbesondere     auf   die   europäische     Infrastruktur     und   die
             Nahrungsmittel Versorgung ; Bestimmung weiterer wesentlicher
             Folgen . Einschätzung der Auswirkungen auf andere politische
             und wirtschaftliche Ländergruppierungen .
      ii .   Überprüfung      der    Massnahmen ,    die    sich   angesichts     der
             potentiellen       Veränderungen      (i)    anbieten     ( z.B.    neue
             Getreidesorten , Umstellung der Planung , u.a .).
      iii .  Aufgrund der gemäss ( D ) durchgeführten Beurteilung und des nach
             Punkt ( C ) entwickelten Rahmens : Einschätzung der Kosten und
             des Nutzens alternativer Anpassungsmassnahmen ; Beurteilung der
             Wahrscheinlichkeit , dass sich solche Massnahmen angesichts der
             vorhergesagten Folgen als wirksam erweisen .
III . LEITLINIEN FÜR DIE DURCHFÜHRUNG DES PROGRAMMS
 A. Bei der Durchführung des Programms wird die Kommission andere
     einschlägige       Initiativen      berücksichtigen ,     die    sowohl      auf
     Gemeinschaftsebene als auch weltweit durchgeführt werden , z.B. :
 ---pagebreak---                                          - 7 -
           die EG-Forschungsprogramme iiber Kllmatologie und Naturr Is iken -,
           die EG-Forschungsprogramme der Gemeinsamen Forschungsstellen über
           Energieerhaltung ,   Sonnenenergie       und     thermische     Umwandlung ,
           nukleare Sicherheit , usw .;
           die Ergebnisse der Jüngsten Internationalen Konferenzen ( z.B. der
           Konferenz über die Veränderung der Atmosphäre , die im Juni 1988 in
           Toronto stattfand );
           die Tätigkeiten der UNEP/WHO-Arbe i tsgruppe für Klimaänderungen ;
     usw .
     Hierzu wird die Kommission eine sachgerechte Zusammenarbeit mit den
     jeweiligen Organisationen entwickeln .
 B. Mit     Unterstützung   des   in    Artikel   1    des    Beschlusses      genannten
     Ausschusses wird die Kommission die Verfahren und konkreten Schritte
     für     dieses   Arbeitsprogramm      definieren      und    fest legen ,    welche
     Informationen von den Mitgliedstaaten zu liefern sind .
     Die zuständigen Organisationen und Ministerien der Mitgliedstaaten
     werden an diesen Arbeiten über den obengenannten Ausschuss beteiligt .
IV . FINANZIERUNG DES PROGRAMMS
Die erforderlichen Mittel für die Durchführung des Programms werden auf 6
Millionen ECU veranschlagt .
 ---pagebreak---                                  Vorschlag einer
        Entsch I iessung des Rates über den " Treibhauseffekt und
                                die Gemeinschaft "
 DER RAT DER EUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFTEN
gestützt     auf     den     Vertrag    zur    Gründung    der    Europäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft ,
auf Vorschlag der Kommission ,
 in Erwägung nachstehender Gründe :
Der durch die Einheitliche Europäische Akte geänderte Vertrag zur
Gründung der Europäischen Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft sieht die
Entwicklung      und      die    Durchführung     einer    gemeinschaftlichen
Umweltpolitik vor ; er sieht ebenfalls vor , dass die Gemeinschaft bei
der Ausarbeitung ihrer Tätigkeiten auf diesem Gebiet               insbesondere
den wissenschaftlichen und technischen Daten sowie den Vorteilen und
Belastungen ,    die    sich     aus  einer    Massnahme    oder    aus   ihrer
Unterlassung ergeben können , Rechnung trägt .
Die vorliegende Entsch I iessung geht von den Erläuterungen aus , die
in der Entsch I iessung vom 19 . Oktober 1987 bezüglich eines
Aktionsprogrammes der           Europäischen Gemeinschaften für den
Umweltschutz ^) enthalten sind , d.h . der Zweckmässigkeit , auf der
geeigneten     Ebene    tätig     zu  werden ,   sowie   der    Notwendigkeit ,
(1)      ABI .       Nr .       C328      vom       7.12.1987 ,       S.      1
 ---pagebreak---                                       2
 die Arbeiten auf internationaler Ebene zu koordinieren , die Vorteile
und Belastungen      aufgrund der geplanten Massnahmen abzuschätzen
 sowie dieselben     in angemessener Weise technisch und politisch
 vorzubereiten .
Die vorliegenden wissenschaftlichen Daten ,            insbesondere die
Ergebnisse der gemeinschaftlichen Umweltprogramme , weisen darauf
hin , dass die Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre merklich durch die
Aktivitäten des Menschen verändert wird ; in Anbetracht der
vorhandenen kl imatologischen Modelle könnte dies mit der Zeit durch
den    sogenannten     " Treibhauseffekt "  Veränderungen    des   Klimas
hervor rufen und somit wichtige Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt , den
Menschen und seine Aktivitäten haben .
 In Anbetracht der Art und der Dimensionen der Risiken , die durch den
Treibhauseffekt hervorgerufen werden , ist es dringend notwendig , die
möglichen Massnahmen zu untersuchen , die diese Risiken verhindern
                   Λ
oder reduzieren konnten .
Ein    sehr   weiter      Konsensus   wurde   während    der   kürzlichen
 internationalen Konferenz erreicht hinsichtlich der Notwendigkeit ,
dringend Massnahmen in Betracht zu ziehen , um die Emissionen der für
den Treibhauseffekt verantwortlichen Gase zu reduzieren .
Aufgrund der Komplexität des " Treibhauseffektes " , der vielfältigen
und weitreichenden Auswirkungen dieses Effektes und der in Betracht
zu ziehenden Massnahmen zur Verhinderung oder Linderung        der Folgen
ist eine vorhergehende gründliche Prüfung der möglichen politischen
Optionen notwendig . Diese muss mit geeigneten Methodologien
verwirklicht werden , die in angemessener Weise den Unsicherheiten
Rechnung tragen , die auf verschiedenen Gebieten dieses Themas noch
bestehen .
 ---pagebreak---                                   - 3 -
 Es ist von grösster Wichtigkeit , dass die Gemeinschaft und ihre
Mitgliedstaaten in der Lage sind , einen grundlegenden Beitrag zu den
Überlegungen      und    zur   Erarbeitung    eventueller    politischer
 Entscheidungen im geeigneten internationalen Rahmen zu liefern , um
 in wirksamster Weise gegen die Risiken einer Klimaänderung Vorgehen
zu können .
Begrüsst die Mitteilung der Kommission über den " Treibhauseffekt und
die Gemeinschaft " und ist mit deren Schlussfolgerungen und
Empfehlungen einverstanden .
Erklärt    dass    die  Gemeinschaft    den  Risiken   der   durch   den
Treibhauseffekt herbeigeführten potentiellen Klimaänderungen mehr
Beachtung widmen sollte und weitgehend dazu beitragen sollte
Überlegungen und Diskussion über mögliche Gegenmassnahmen             zu
unterstützen .
Begrüsst die Initiative der Kommission ein Arbeitsprogramm über die
Beurteilung der politischen Optionen zur Verringerung der mit dem
Treibhauseffekt    verbundenen  Risiken   zu starten  und  ist  mit  den
Zielen eines solchen Programmes einverstanden .
Ersucht   die   Mitgliedstaaten  aktiv mit   der  Gemeinschaft   in  der
Ausführung des oben genannten Arbeitsprogrammes zusammenzuarbeiten
und ihre relevanten Tätigkeit über den Treibhauseffekt in diesem
Rahmen zu koordinieren .
Ersucht die Kommission dem Rat und dem Europäischen Parlament bis
Mitte 1990 einen Zwischenbericht und bis Ende 1991 einen Endbericht
über die Ergebnisse und Schlussfolgerungen dieses Arbeitsprogrammes
zu unterbreiten .