RAPID BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN EUROPE , BUT PROBLEMS INTERNATIONALLY
WITHIN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY THE PATTERN OF BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS TRENDS IN THE RECENT PAST HAS BEEN A COMBINATION OF SEVERAL PROCESSES : THE GENERAL ADJUSTMENT TO THE SECOND OIL SHOCK , CORRECTION IN SOME CASES OF LARGE , TWIN DEFICITS IN THE BUDGET AS WELL AS THE BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CURRENT ACCOUNT ( E . G . DENMARK , IRELAND AND BELGIUM ) , AND CORRECTION IN SOME CASES OF PROBLEMS DUE TO THE MARKED DESYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES ( E . G . IN FRANCE ) .
OVERALL , THIS COMPLEX ADJUSTMENT PROCESS IS PROCEEDING REASONABLY WELL , BOTH AS REGARDS THE SITUATION OF THE COMMUNITY IN THE WORLD , WHICH IS IN MODERATE AND DECLINING DEFICIT ON CURRENT ACCOUNT , AND AS REGARDS THE SITUATION OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBER STATES . SEVERAL COMMUNITY COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE BEEN IN SERIOUS CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICIT HAVE , IN RECENT MONTHS , BEEN REPORTING MUCH BETTER TRADING RESULTS . IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR , DENMARK AND BELGIUM REPORTED THEIR FIRST MONTH OF VISIBLE TRADING SURPLUS FOR MANY YEARS . FOR IRELAND AND FRANCE ALSO A MUCH IMPROVED FOREIGN TRADE PERFORMANCE IS EMERGING , WHEREAS THE RESULTS FOR GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED . IN THE DEFICIT COUNTRIES , THE TRADE ACCOUNTS HAVE RESPONDED QUITE PROMPTLY TO CORRECTIVE MEASURES INCLUDING RESTRAINTS ON INTERNAL DEMAND . VISIBLE TRADE BALANCES OF COURSE GIVE ONLY AN INCOMPLETE PICTURE , AND RISING DEBT SERVICES BURDENS IN DEFICIT COUNTRIES REQUIRE AN IMPROVING TRADE ACCOUNT BEFORE THE CURRENT ACCOUNT BEGINS TO IMPROVE . HOWEVER , CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICITS ARE ALSO BEING REDUCED AND COMMISSION FORECASTS FOR 1984 SUGGEST THAT IN BELGIUM , DENMARK AND FRANCE THEIR SIZE AS A SHARE OF GDP WILL BE CUT BY TWO-THIRDS OR MORE COMPARED TO 1982 . FOR IRELAND AND ITALY THE REDUCTION IS EVEN MORE MARKED , BUT FOR GREECE AN IMPROVING TREND IS NOT YET EVIDENT .
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF CURRENT-ACCOUNT BALANCES AT THE WORLD LEVEL ARE TAKING PLACE :
BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CURRENT ACCOUNTS ( 1 )
( BILLIONS OF US DOLLARS )
* 1980 * 1982 * 1983
EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES * - 37 * - 14 * - 4
UNITED STATES * 0 * - 11 * - 30
JAPAN * - 11 * + 7 * + 18
OPEC * + 111 * - 4 * - 22
OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES * - 76 * - 65 * - 47
( 1 ) THE WORLD BALANCE , IN THEORY EQUAL TO ZERO , DIFFERS FROM ZERO BECAUSE OF STATISTICAL DISCREPANCIES ( NON-RECORDING OF CERTAIN CREDITS ) .
COMPARED TO THE EXTREME 1980 SITUATION , BY 1982 THE INDUSTRIALIZED AND OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES HAD , ON THE WHOLE , COMPLETED THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE SECOND OIL-PRICE SHOCK . HOWEVER , THE INDEBTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HAD DELAYED THEIR ADJUSTMENT AND WERE ALSO CAUGHT HEAVILY EXPOSED TO THE RISE IN WORLD INTEREST RATES . BY 1982 THEIR CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION WAS STILL AS