Document ID: ./input/supremecourt_opinions/opinions/10pdf/09-1233.pdf
Page Number: 89

Cite as:  563 U. S. ____ (2011) 

15 

ALITO, J., dissenting 

trial court selects between the competing views of experts
on  broad  empirical  questions  such  as  the  efficacy  of 
preventing  crime  through  the  incapacitation  of  convicted
criminals,  the  trial  court’s  choice  is  very  different  from  a
classic  finding  of  fact  and  is  not  entitled  to  the  same  de-
gree of deference on appeal. 

The  particular  three-judge  court  convened  in  this  case 
was  “confident”  that  releasing  46,000  prisoners  pursuant 
to  its  plan  “would  in  fact  benefit  public  safety.”    Juris. 
App.  248a–249a.  According  to  that  court,  “overwhelming 
evidence”  supported  this  purported  finding.    Id.,  at  232a. 
But  a  more  cautious  court,  less  bent  on  implementing  its
own criminal justice agenda, would have at least acknowl-
edged  that  the  consequences  of  this  massive  prisoner
release cannot be ascertained in advance with any degree 
of  certainty  and  that  it  is  entirely  possible  that  this  re-
lease  will  produce  results  similar  to  those  under  prior 
court-ordered  population  caps.    After  all,  the  sharp  in-
crease  in  the  California  prison  population  that  the  three-
judge court lamented, see id., at 254a, has been accompa-
nied  by  an  equally  sharp  decrease  in  violent  crime.11 
These  California  trends  mirror  similar  developments  at
the  national  level,12  and  “[t]here  is  a  general  consensus
that  the  decline  in  crime  is,  at  least  in  part,  due  to  more 
and longer prison sentences.”13  If increased incarceration 

—————— 

11 From 1992 to 2009, the violent crime rate in California per 100,000 
residents fell from 1,119.7 to 472.0—a decrease of  57.8  percent.  Simi-
larly, in the United States from 1992 to 2009, the violent crime rate per
100,000  residents  fell  from  757.7  to  429.4—a  decrease  of  43.3  percent.
Dept.  of  Justice,  Federal  Bureau  of  Investigation,  Uniform  Crime
Reporting Statistics, http://www.ucrdatatool.gov. 

12 According  to  the  three-judge  court,  California’s  prison  population 
has  increased  by  750  percent  since  the  mid-1970’s.    Juris.  App.  254a. 
From  1970  to  2005,  the  Nation’s  prison  population  increased  by  700 
percent.  Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison 
Population 2007–2011, 19 Fed. Sent. Rep. 234, 234 (2007). 

13 Paternoster, How Much Do We Really Know About Criminal Deter-