Document ID: ./input/supremecourt_opinions/opinions/20pdf/21a23_ap6c.pdf
Page Number: 15.0

Cite as:  594 U. S. ____ (2021) 

7 

BREYER, J., dissenting 

more severe illness than previous strains in unvaccinated 
persons”).  Absent  the  current  stay,  the  CDC  projects  a 
strong  “likelihood  of  mass  evictions  nationwide”  with 
public-health  consequences  that  would  be  “difficult  to  re-
verse.”  86 Fed. Reg. 43247, 43252. 

Third, the public interest is not favored by the spread of 
disease or a court’s second-guessing of the CDC’s judgment.
The CDC has determined that “[a] surge in evictions could 
lead  to  the  immediate  and  significant  movement  of  large 
numbers  of  persons  from  lower  density  to  higher  density 
housing. . . when the highly transmissible Delta variant is
driving COVID–19 cases at an unprecedented rate.”  Id., at 
43248.  The  CDC  cites  models  showing  up  to  a  30%  in-
creased risk of contracting COVID–19 for some evicted peo-
ple and those who share housing with them after displace-
ment.  Ibid.  The  CDC  invokes  studies  finding  nationally
over 433,000 cases and over 10,000 deaths may be traced to
the lifting of state eviction moratoria.  Ibid. 

The public interest strongly favors respecting the CDC’s 
judgment  at  this  moment,  when  over  90%  of  counties  are
experiencing high transmission rates.  See CDC, COVD–19 
Integrated  County  View,  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-
tracker/#county-view.  That figure is the highest it has been 
since at least last winter.  See CDC, COVID–19 State Pro-
file Report 372 (Aug. 20, 2021).  It was in the single digits
when we considered the CDC’s previous moratorium order 
and denied applicants’ earlier motion.  See CDC, COVID– 
19 State Profile Report 476 (June 25, 2021).

On  applicants’  last  trip  to  this  Court,  they  argued  that
the “downward trend in COVID–19 cases and the effective-
ness of vaccines” left “no . . . public-health rationale for the 
[CDC’s then-operative eviction] moratorium.”  Application 
in No. 20A169, p. 4.  These predictions have proved tragi-
cally untrue.  Today they show just how little we may pre-
sume to know about the course of this pandemic.