Patent Abstract:
Time series consumer spending data, point-in-time balance information and consumer panel information provide input to a model for consumer spend behavior on plastic instruments or other financial accounts, from which approximations of spending ability and share of wallet may be reliably identified and utilized to promote additional consumer spending.

Full Description:
CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS 
       [0001]    This application is a divisional application of U.S. application Ser. No. 11/257,379, filed Oct. 24, 2005, which is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety herein. In addition, this application was filed on the same day as the following application with the same title, ______ [EXP.017A2DV1], which is also hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety herein. 
     
    
     BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 
       [0002]    1. Field of the Invention 
         [0003]    This disclosure generally relates to financial data processing, and in particular it relates to credit scoring, customer profiling, consumer behavior analysis and modeling. 
         [0004]    2. Description of the Related Art 
         [0005]    It is axiomatic that consumers will tend to spend more when they have greater purchasing power. The capability to accurately estimate a consumer&#39;s spend capacity could therefore allow a financial institution (such as a credit company, lender or any consumer services companies) to better target potential prospects and identify any opportunities to increase consumer transaction volumes, without an undue increase in the risk of defaults. Attracting additional consumer spending in this manner, in turn, would increase such financial institution&#39;s revenues, primarily in the form of an increase in transaction fees and interest payments received. Consequently, a consumer model that can accurately estimate purchasing power is of paramount interest to many financial institutions and other consumer services companies. 
         [0006]    A limited ability to estimate consumer spend behavior from point-in-time credit data has previously been available. A financial institution can, for example, simply monitor the balances of its own customers&#39; accounts. When a credit balance is lowered, the financial institution could then assume that the corresponding consumer now has greater purchasing power. However, it is oftentimes difficult to confirm whether the lowered balance is the result of a balance transfer to another account. Such balance transfers represent no increase in the consumer&#39;s capacity to spend, and so this simple model of consumer behavior has its flaws. 
         [0007]    In order to achieve a complete picture of any consumer&#39;s purchasing ability, one must examine in detail the full range of a consumer&#39;s financial accounts, including credit accounts, checking and savings accounts, investment portfolios, and the like. However, the vast majority of consumers do not maintain all such accounts with the same financial institution, and the access to detailed financial information from other financial institutions is restricted by consumer privacy laws, disclosure policies, and security concerns. 
         [0008]    There is limited and incomplete consumer information from credit bureaus and the like at the aggregate and individual consumer levels. Since balance transfers are nearly impossible to consistently identify from the face of such records, this information has not previously been enough to obtain accurate estimates of a consumer&#39;s actual spending ability. 
         [0009]    Accordingly, there is a need for a method and apparatus for modeling consumer spending behavior which addresses certain problems of existing technologies. 
       SUMMARY OF THE DISCLOSURE 
       [0010]    It is an object of the present disclosure, therefore, to introduce a method for modeling consumer behavior and applying the model to both potential and actual customers (who may be individual consumers or businesses) to determine their spend over previous periods of time (sometimes referred to herein as the customer&#39;s size of wallet) from tradeline data sources. The share of wallet by tradeline or account type may also be determined. At the highest level, the size of wallet is represented by a consumer&#39;s or business&#39; total aggregate spending, and the share of wallet represents how the customer uses different payment instruments. 
         [0011]    In various embodiments, a method and apparatus for modeling consumer behavior includes receiving individual and aggregated consumer data for a plurality of different consumers. The consumer data may include, for example, time series tradeline data, consumer panel data, and internal customer data. One or more models of consumer spending patterns are then derived based on the consumer data for one or more categories of consumer. Categories for such consumers may be based on spending levels, spending behavior, tradeline user and type of tradeline. 
         [0012]    In various embodiments, a method and apparatus for estimating the spending levels of an individual consumer is next provided, which relies on the models of consumer behavior above. Size of wallet calculations for individual prospects and customers are derived from credit bureau data sources to produce outputs using the models. 
         [0013]    Balance transfers into credit accounts are identified based on individual tradeline data according to various algorithms, and any identified balance transfer amount is excluded from the spending calculation for individual consumers. The identification of balance transfers enables more accurate utilization of balance data to reflect consumer spending. 
         [0014]    Using results of the size of wallet calculations, together with a customer&#39;s known spending using a given payment instrument, such as a given credit card, allows for a calculation of the given payment instrument&#39;s share of wallet, or percentage of total spend, for the customer. An electronic notification of the share of wallet information may be transmitted to an interested party, such as to the issuer of the credit card. 
         [0015]    When consumer spending levels and share of wallet levels are reliably identified in this manner, customers may be categorized to more effectively manage the customer relationship and increase the profitability therefrom. As one example, the information may be used to determine whether to offer an incentive and/or to select a type of incentive to be offered to the customer to encourage the customer to more frequently use the payment instrument or to transfer balances to the payment instrument. 
         [0016]    For purposes of summarizing embodiments of the invention, certain aspects, advantages, and novel features of the invention have been described herein. It is to be understood that not necessarily all such aspects, advantages, or novel features will be embodied in any particular embodiment of the invention. 
     
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
         [0017]    Further aspects of the present disclosure will be more readily appreciated upon review of the detailed description of its various embodiments, described below, when taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, of which: 
           [0018]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram of an exemplary financial data exchange network over which the processes of the present disclosure may be performed; 
           [0019]      FIG. 2  is a flowchart of an exemplary consumer modeling process performed by the financial server of  FIG. 1 ; 
           [0020]      FIG. 3  is a diagram of exemplary categories of consumers examined during the process of  FIG. 2 ; 
           [0021]      FIG. 4  is a diagram of exemplary subcategories of consumers modeled during the process of  FIG. 2 ; 
           [0022]      FIG. 5  is a diagram of financial data used for model generation and validation according to the process of  FIG. 2 ; 
           [0023]      FIG. 6  is a flowchart of an exemplary process for estimating the spend ability of a consumer, performed by the financial server of  FIG. 1 ; 
           [0024]      FIG. 7-10  are exemplary timelines showing the rolling time periods for which individual customer data is examined during the process of  FIG. 6 ; and 
           [0025]      FIG. 11-19  are tables showing exemplary results and outputs of the process of  FIG. 6  against a sample consumer population. 
       
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS 
       [0026]    As used herein, the following terms shall have the following meanings. A trade or tradeline refers to a credit or charge vehicle issued to an individual customer by a credit grantor. Types of tradelines include bank loans, credit card accounts, retail cards, personal lines of credit and car loans/leases. For purposes herein, use of the term credit card shall be construed to include charge cards, except as specifically noted. Tradeline data describes the customer&#39;s account status and activity, including, for example, names of companies where the customer has accounts, dates such accounts were opened, credit limits, types of accounts, balances over a period of time, and summary of payment histories. Tradeline data is generally available for the vast majority of actual consumers. Tradeline data, however, does not include individual transaction data, which is largely unavailable because of consumer privacy protections. Tradeline data may be used to determine both individual and aggregated consumer spending patterns, as described herein. 
         [0027]    Consumer panel data measures consumer spending patterns from information that is provided by, typically, millions of participating consumer panelists. Such consumer panel data available through various consumer research companies such as COMSCORE. Consumer panel data may typically include individual consumer information such as credit risk scores, credit card application data, credit card purchase transaction data, credit card statement views, tradeline types, balances, credit limits, purchases, balance transfers, cash advances, payments made, finance charges, annual percentage rates, and fees charged. Such individual information from consumer panel data, however, is limited to those consumers who have participated in the consumer panel, and so such detailed data may not be available for all consumers. 
         [0028]    Technology advances have made it possible to store, manipulate, and model large amounts of time series data with minimal expenditure on equipment. As will now be described, a financial institution may leverage these technological advances in conjunction with the types of consumer data presently available in the marketplace to more readily estimate the spend capacity of potential and actual customers. A reliable capability to assess the size of a consumer&#39;s wallet is introduced in which aggregate time series and raw tradeline data are used to model consumer behavior and attributes, and to identify categories of consumers based on aggregate behavior. The use of raw trade-line time series data, and modeled consumer behavior attributes, including but not limited to, consumer panel data and internal consumer data, allows actual consumer spend behavior to be derived from point-in-time balance information. 
         [0029]    In addition, the advent of consumer panel data provided through internet channels provides continuous access to actual consumer spend information for model validation and refinement. Industry data, including consumer panel information having consumer statement and individual transaction data, may be used as inputs to the model and for subsequent verification and validation of its accuracy. The model is developed and refined using actual consumer information with the goals of improving the customer experience and increasing billings growth by identifying and leveraging increased consumer spend opportunities. 
         [0030]    A credit provider or other financial institution may also make use of internal proprietary customer data retrieved from its stored internal financial records. Such internal data provides access to even more actual customer spending information, and may be used in the development, refinement and validation of aggregated consumer spending models, as well as verification of the models&#39; applicability to existing individual customers on an ongoing basis. 
         [0031]    While there has long been marketplace interest in understanding spend to align offers with consumers to and assign credit line size, the holistic approach of using a size of wallet calculation across customers&#39; lifecycles (that is, acquisitions through collections) has not previously been provided. The various data sources outlined above provide the opportunity for unique model logic development and deployment, and as described in more detail in the following, various categories of consumers may be readily identified from aggregate and individual data. In certain embodiments of the processes disclosed herein, the models may be used to identify specific types of consumers, nominally labeled ‘transactors’ and ‘revolvers,’ based on aggregate spending behavior, and to then identify individual customers and prospects that fall into one of these categories. Consumers falling into these categories may then be offered commensurate purchasing incentives based on the model&#39;s estimate of consumer spending ability. 
         [0032]    Referring now to  FIGS. 1-19 , wherein similar components of the present disclosure are referenced in like manner, various embodiments of a method and system for estimating the purchasing ability of consumers will now be described in detail. 
         [0033]    Turning now to  FIG. 1 , there is depicted an exemplary computer network  100  over which the transmission of the various types of consumer data as described herein may be accomplished, using any of a variety of available computing components for processing such data in the manners described below. Such components, may include an institution computer  102 , which may be a computer, workstation or server, such as those commonly manufactured by IBM, and operated by a financial institution or the like. The institution computer  102 , in turn, has appropriate internal hardware, software, processing, memory and network communication components that enables it to perform the functions described herein, including storing both internally and externally obtained individual or aggregate consumer data in appropriate memory and processing the same according to the processes described herein using programming instructions provided in any of a variety of useful machine languages. 
         [0034]    The institution computer  102  may in turn be in operative communication with any number of other internal or external computing devices, including for example components  104 ,  106 ,  108 , and  110 , which may be computers or servers of similar or compatible functional configuration. These components  104 - 110  may gather and provide aggregated and individual consumer data, as described herein, and transmit the same for processing and analysis by the institution computer  102 . Such data transmissions may occur, for example, over the Internet or by any other known communications infrastructure, such as a local area network, a wide area network, a wireless network, a fiber-optic network, or any combination or interconnection of the same. Such communications may also be transmitted in an encrypted or otherwise secure format, in any of a wide variety of known manners. 
         [0035]    Each of the components  104 - 110  may be operated by either common or independent entities. In one exemplary embodiment, which is not to be limiting to the scope of the present disclosure, one or more such components  104 - 110  may be operated by a provider of aggregate and individual consumer tradeline data, an example of which includes services provided by EXPERIAN. Tradeline level data preferably includes up to twenty-four months or more of balance history and credit attributes captured at the tradeline level, including information about accounts as reported by various credit grantors, which in turn may be used to derive a broad view of actual aggregated consumer behavioral spending patterns. 
         [0036]    Alternatively, or in addition thereto, one or more of the components  104 - 110  may likewise be operated by a provider of individual and aggregate consumer panel data, such as commonly provided by COMSCORE. Consumer panel data provides more detailed and specific consumer spending information regarding millions of consumer panel participants, who provide actual spend data to collectors of such data in exchange for various inducements. The data collected may include any one or more of: credit risk scores, online credit card application data, online credit card purchase transaction data, online credit card statement views, credit trade type and credit issuer, credit issuer code, portfolio level statistics, credit bureau reports, demographic data, account balances, credit limits, purchases, balance transfers, cash advances, payment amounts, finance charges, annual percentage interest rates on accounts, and fees charged, all at an individual level for each of the participating panelists. In various embodiments, this type of data is used for model development, refinement, and verification. This type of data is further advantageous over tradeline level data alone for such purposes, since such detailed information is not provided at the tradeline level. While such detailed consumer panel data can be used alone to generate a model, it may not be wholly accurate with respect to the remaining marketplace of consumers at large without further refinement. Consumer panel data may also be used to generate aggregate consumer data for model derivation and development. 
         [0037]    Additionally, another source of inputs to the model may be internal spend and payment history of the institution&#39;s own customers. From such internal data, detailed information at the same level of specificity as the consumer panel data may be obtained and used for model development, refinement and validation, including a categorization of consumers based on identified transactor and revolver behaviors. 
         [0038]    Turning now to  FIG. 2 , there is depicted a flowchart of an exemplary process  200  for modeling aggregate consumer behavior in accordance with the present disclosure. The process  200  commences at step  202  wherein individual and aggregate consumer data, including time-series tradeline data, consumer panel data and internal customer financial data, is obtained from any of the data sources described previously as inputs for consumer behavior models. In certain embodiments, the individual and aggregate consumer data may be provided in a variety of different data formats or structures and consolidated to a single useful format or structure for processing. 
         [0039]    Next, at step  204 , the individual and aggregate consumer data is analyzed to determine consumer spending behavior patterns. One of ordinary skill in the art will readily appreciate that the models may include formulas that mathematically describe the spending behavior of consumers. The particular formulas derived will therefore highly depend on the values resulting from customer data used for derivation, as will be readily appreciated. However, by way of example only and based on the data provided, consumer behavior may be modeled by first dividing consumers into categories that may be based on account balance levels, demographic profiles, household income levels, or any other desired categories. For each of these categories in turn, historical account balance and transaction information for each of the consumers may be tracked over a previous period of time, such as one to two years. Algorithms may then be employed to determine formulaic descriptions of the distribution of aggregate consumer information over the course of that period of time for the population of consumers examined, using any of a variety of known mathematical techniques. These formulas in turn may be used to derive or generate one or more models (step  206 ) for each of the categories of consumers using any of a variety of available trend analysis algorithms. The models may yield the following types of aggregated consumer information for each category: average balances, maximum balances, standard deviation of balances, percentage of balances that change by a threshold amount, and the like. 
         [0040]    Finally, at step  208 , the derived models may be validated and periodically refined using internal customer data and consumer panel data from sources such as COMSCORE. In various embodiments, the model may be validated and refined over time based on additional aggregated and individual consumer data as it is continuously received by an institution computer  202  over the network  200 . Actual customer transaction level information and detailed consumer information panel data may be calculated and used to compare actual consumer spend amounts for individual consumers (defined for each month as the difference between the sum of debits to the account and any balance transfers into the account) and the spend levels estimated for such consumers using the process  200  above. If a large error is demonstrated between actual and estimated amounts, the models and the formulas used may be manually or automatically refined so that the error is reduced. This allows for a flexible model that has the capability to adapt to actual aggregated spending behavior as it fluctuates over time. 
         [0041]    As shown in the diagram  300  of  FIG. 3 , a population of consumers for which individual and/or aggregated data has been provided may be divided first into two general categories for analysis, for example, those that are current on their credit accounts (representing 1.72 million consumers in the exemplary data sample size of 1.78 million consumers) and those that are delinquent (representing 0.06 million of such consumers). In one embodiment, delinquent consumers may be discarded from the populations being modeled. 
         [0042]    In further embodiments, the population of current consumers is then subdivided into a plurality of further categories based on the amount of balance information available and the balance activity of such available data. In the example shown in the diagram  300 , the amount of balance information available is represented by string of ‘+’ 0′ and ‘?’ characters. Each character represents one month of available data, with the rightmost character representing the most current months and the leftmost character representing the earliest month for which data is available. In the example provided in  FIG. 3 , a string of six characters is provided, representing the six most recent months of data for each category. The ‘+” character represents a month in which a credit account balance of the consumer has increased. The “0” character may represent months where the account balance is zero. The “?” character represents months for which balance data is unavailable. Also provided in the diagram is the number of consumers falling into each category and the percentage of the consumer population they represent in that sample. 
         [0043]    In further embodiments, only certain categories of consumers may be selected for modeling behavior. The selection may be based on those categories that demonstrate increased spend on their credit balances over time. However, it should be readily appreciated that other categories can be used.  FIG. 3  shows in bold two categories selected for modeling. These groups show the availability of at least the three most recent months of balance data with balances that increased in each of those months. 
         [0044]    Turning now to  FIG. 4 , therein is depicted an exemplary diagram  400  showing sub-categorization of the two categories of  FIG. 3  in bold that are selected for modeling. In the embodiment shown, the sub-categories may include: consumers having a most recent credit balance less than $400; consumers having a most recent credit balance between $400 and $1600; consumers having a most recent credit balance between $1600 and $5000; consumers whose most recent credit balance is less than the balance of, for example, three months ago; consumers whose maximum credit balance increase over, for example, the last twelve months divided by the second highest maximum balance increase over the same period is less than 2; and consumers whose maximum credit balance increase over the last twelve months divided by the second highest maximum balance increase is greater than 2. It should be readily appreciated that other subcategories can be used. Each of these sub-categories is defined by their last month balance level. The number of consumers from the sample population (in millions) and the percentage of the population for each category are also shown in  FIG. 4 . 
         [0045]    There may be a certain balance threshold established, wherein if a consumer&#39;s account balance is too high, their behavior may not be modeled, since such consumers are less likely to have sufficient spending ability. Alternatively, or in addition thereto, consumers having balances above such threshold may be sub-categorized yet again, rather than being completely discarded from the sample. In the example shown in  FIG. 4 , the threshold value may be $5000, and only those having particular historical balance activity may be selected, for example those consumers whose present balance is less than their balance three months earlier, or whose maximum balance increase in the examined period meets certain parameters. Other threshold values may also be used and may be dependent on the individual and aggregated consumer data provided. 
         [0046]    As described in the foregoing, the models generated in the process  200  may be derived, validated and refined using tradeline and consumer panel data. An example of tradeline data  500  from EXPERIAN and consumer panel data  502  from COMSCORE are represented in  FIG. 5 . Each row of the data  500 ,  502  represents the record of one consumer and thousands of such records may be provided at a time. The statement  500  shows the point-in-time balance of consumers accounts for three successive months (Balance  1 , Balance  2 , and Balance  3 ). The data  502  shows each consumer&#39;s purchase volume, last payment amount, previous balance amount and current balance. Such information may be obtained, for example, by page scraping the data (in any of a variety of known manners using appropriate application programming interfaces) from an Internet web site or network address at which the data  502  is displayed. Furthermore, the data  500  and  502  may be matched by consumer identity and combined by one of the data providers or another third party independent of the financial institution. Validation of the models using the combined data  500  and  502  may then be performed, and such validation may be independent of consumer identity. 
         [0047]    Turning now to  FIG. 6 , therein is depicted an exemplary process  600  for estimating the size of an individual consumer&#39;s spending wallet. Upon completion of the modeling of the consumer categories above, the process  600  commences with the selection of individual consumers or prospects to be examined (step  602 ). An appropriate model derived during the process  200  will then be applied to the presently available consumer tradeline information in the following manner to determine, based on the results of application of the derived models, an estimate of a consumer&#39;s size of wallet. Each consumer of interest may be selected based on their falling into one of the categories selected for modeling described above, or may be selected using any of a variety of criteria. 
         [0048]    The process  600  continues to step  604  where a further categorization of the consumers takes place. For example, with respect to bank card or credit card customers the categorization may identify whether each consumer of interest is a ‘revolver,’ typically revolving balances among cards and paying off only a portion of the balance on each statement, or whether the consumer is a ‘transactor,’ typically using the card and paying off the full balance of each statement. 
         [0049]    A variety of algorithms may be used to categorize customers as revolvers or transactors. As one example, for a selected consumer, a paydown percentage over a previous period of time may be estimated for each of the consumer&#39;s credit accounts. In one embodiment, the paydown percentage is estimated over the previous three-month period of time based on available tradeline data, and may be calculated according to the following formula: 
         [0000]    
       
         
           
             
               Paydown 
                
               
                   
               
                
               % 
             
             = 
             
               
                 ( 
                 
                   
                     
                       
                         The 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         sum 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         of 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         the 
                       
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         last 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         three 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         
                           months 
                           &#39; 
                         
                       
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         payments 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         from 
                       
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         the 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         account 
                       
                     
                   
                 
                 ) 
               
               / 
               
                 
                   ( 
                   
                     
                       
                         
                           The 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           sum 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           of 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           three 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           
                             months 
                             &#39; 
                           
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           balances 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           for 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           the 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           account 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           based 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           on 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           tradeline 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           data 
                         
                       
                     
                   
                   ) 
                 
                 . 
               
             
           
         
       
     
         [0000]    The paydown percentage may be set to, for example, 2% for any consumer exhibiting less than a 5% paydown percentage, and may be set to 100% if greater than 80%, as a simplified manner for estimating consumer spending behaviors on either end of the paydown percentage scale. 
         [0050]    Consumers that exhibit less than a 50% paydown during this period may be categorized as revolvers, while consumers exhibiting a 50% paydown or greater may be categorized as transactors. 
         [0051]    As another example of an algorithm for categorizing, the following algorithm may be implemented to identify a consumer as a revolver or a transactor with regard to individual credit cards or other tradelines associated with the consumer:
       First, examine a history of the consumer&#39;s tradeline balances for a recent given timeframe of interest, such as for six, twelve, or twenty-four months, and quantify any change in balance values between each two consecutive months.   For each two consecutive monthly balances, where MONTH 1  is the earlier balance, and MONTH 2  is the subsequent balance:   CHANGE=MONTH 2 −MONTH 1     If|CHANGE|&lt;=10% of MONTH 1 , then this is a REVOLVING CHANGE   If|CHANGE|&gt;10% of MONTH 1 , then this is a TRANSACTING CHANGE (but if MONTH 1 =0 and MONTH 2 &gt;0, then this is a   TRANSACTING CHANGE   For a given tradeline, if 75% or more of the changes within the timeframe are REVOLVING CHANGES, then the consumer is considered a revolver with respect to that tradeline. If 75% or more of the changes within the timeframe are TRANSACTING CHANGES, then the consumer is considered a transactor with respect to that tradeline. Otherwise, the consumer may be categorized as ‘undetermined’ for the tradeline.       
 
         [0059]    Categorizing a consumer of a given tradeline as a revolver or a transactor, by one of these or another method, may be performed to initially determine what, if any, purchasing incentives are to be made available to the consumer, as described later below. 
         [0060]    The process  600  then continues to step  606 , where balance transfers for a previous period of time are identified from the available tradeline data for the consumer. The identification of balance transfers is desirable since, although tradeline data may reflect a higher balance on a credit account over time, such a higher balance may simply be the result of a transfer of a balance into the account, and thus not indicative of a true increase in the consumer&#39;s spending. It is difficult to confirm balance transfers based on tradeline data since the information available is not provided on a transaction level basis. In addition, there are typically lags or absences of reporting of such values on tradeline reports. 
         [0061]    Nonetheless, marketplace analysis using confirmed consumer panel and internal customer financial records has revealed reliable ways in which balance transfers into an account may be identified from imperfect individual tradeline data alone. Three exemplary reliable methods or “rules” for identifying balance transfers from credit accounts, each of which is based in part on actual consumer data sampled, are as follows. It should be readily apparent that these formulas in this form are not necessary for all embodiments of the present process and may vary based on the consumer data used to derive them. 
         [0062]    A first rule identifies a balance transfer for a given consumer&#39;s credit account as follows. The month having the largest balance increase in the tradeline data, and which satisfies the following conditions, may be identified as a month in which a balance transfer has occurred:
       The maximum balance increase is greater than twenty times the second maximum balance increase for the remaining months of available data;   The estimated paydown percent calculated at step  306  above is less than 40%; and   The largest balance increase is greater than $1000 based on the available data.       
 
         [0066]    A second rule identifies a balance transfer for a given consumer&#39;s credit account in any month where the balance is above twelve times the previous month&#39;s balance and the next month&#39;s balance differs by no more than 20%. 
         [0067]    A third rule identifies a balance transfer for a given consumer&#39;s credit account in any month where:
       the current balance is greater than 1.5 times the previous month&#39;s balance;   the current balance minus the previous month&#39;s balance is greater than $4500; and   the estimated paydown percentage from step  306  above is less than 30%.       
 
         [0071]    In estimating consumer spending, any spending for a month in which a balance transfer has been identified from individual tradeline data as described above may be set to zero for purposes of estimating the size of the consumer&#39;s spending wallet, reflecting the supposition that no real spending has occurred on that account. 
         [0072]    In addition to the three above-described rules, when tradeline balance history for all or a plurality of a consumer&#39;s tradelines is available, identification of a balance transfer event may include identification of both a first tradeline from which a balance was transferred out and a second tradeline into which the balance was transferred. 
         [0073]    According to one such algorithm that examines monthly changes in individual tradeline balances, a balance transfer may be identified for two tradelines (T 1  and T 2 ) that meet the following conditions:
       T 1  has a negative balance change (NEG_BAL) and T 2  has a positive balance change (POS_BAL) that occur within three months of one another.   |NEG_BAL|&gt;=$500, and |POS_BAL|&gt;=$500   At least one of |NEG_BAL| and |POS_BAL|&gt;=$1000   NEG_BAL occurs before POS_BAL, unless T 2  has just been opened.   |NEG_BAL|&gt;=50% of T 1 &#39;s previous monthly balance   the smaller of POS_BAL and NEG_BAL is greater than or equal to 50% of the larger of POS_BAL and NEG_BAL       
 
         [0080]    When a balance transfer is identified according to this algorithm, the monthly balances used to calculate customer spend may be adjusted to reflect the identified balance transfer. 
         [0081]    The process  600  then continues to step  608 , where consumer spending on each credit account is estimated over the next, for example, three month period. The estimated spend for each of the three previous months may then be calculated as follows: 
         [0000]    
       
         
           
             
               Estimated 
                
               
                   
               
                
               spend 
             
             = 
             
               
                 ( 
                 
                   
                     
                       
                         
                           
                             
                               
                                 the 
                                  
                                 
                                     
                                 
                                  
                                 current 
                               
                                
                               
                                   
                               
                             
                           
                         
                         
                           
                             
                               balance 
                               - 
                             
                           
                         
                       
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         the 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         previous 
                       
                     
                   
                   
                     
                       
                         
                           month 
                           &#39; 
                         
                          
                         s 
                          
                         
                             
                         
                          
                         balance 
                       
                     
                   
                 
                 ) 
               
               + 
               
                 
                   ( 
                   
                     
                       
                         
                           the 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           previous 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           
                             month 
                             &#39; 
                           
                            
                           s 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           balance 
                           * 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           the 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           estimated 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           paydown 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           % 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           from 
                         
                       
                     
                     
                       
                         
                           step 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           604 
                            
                           
                               
                           
                            
                           above 
                         
                       
                     
                   
                   ) 
                 
                 . 
               
             
           
         
       
     
         [0000]    The exact form of the formula selected may be based on the category in which the consumer is identified from the model applied, and the formula is then computed iteratively for each of the three months of the first period of consumer spend. 
         [0082]    Next, at step  610  of the process  600 , the estimated spend is then extended over, for example, the previous three quarterly or three-month periods, providing a most-recent year of estimated spend for the consumer. 
         [0083]    Finally, at step  612 , this in turn may be used to generate a plurality of final outputs for each consumer account. These may be provided in an output file that may include a portion or all of the following exemplary information, based on the calculations above and on information available from individual tradeline data: (i) size of previous twelve month spending wallet; (ii) size of spending wallet for each of the last four quarters; (iii) total number of revolving cards, with revolving balance, and average pay down percentage for each; (iv) total number of transacting cards, and transacting balances for each; (v) number of balance transfers and total estimated amount thereof; (vi) maximum revolving balance amounts and associated credit limits; and (vii) maximum transacting balance and associated credit limit. 
         [0084]    After step  612 , the process  600  ends with respect to the examined consumer. It should be readily appreciated that the process  600  may be repeated for any number of current customers or consumer prospects. 
         [0085]    Referring now to  FIGS. 7-10 , therein are depicted illustrative diagrams  700 - 1000  of how such estimated spending is calculated in a rolling manner across each previous three month (quarterly) period. In  FIG. 7 , there is depicted a first three month period (i.e., the most recent previous quarter)  702  on a timeline  710 . As well, there is depicted a first twelve-month period  704  on a timeline  708  representing the last twenty-one months of point-in-time account balance information available from individual tradeline data for the consumer&#39;s account. Each month&#39;s balance for the account is designated as “B#.” B 1 -B 12  represent actual account balance information available over the past twelve months for the consumer. B 13 -B 21  represent consumer balances over consecutive, preceding months. 
         [0086]    In accordance with the diagram  700 , spending in each of the three months of the first quarter  702  is calculated based on the balance values B 1 -B 12 , the category of the consumer based on consumer spending models generated in the process  200 , and the formulas used in steps  604  and  606 . 
         [0087]    Turning now to  FIG. 8 , there is shown a diagram  800  illustrating the balance information used for estimating spending in a second previous quarter  802  using a second twelve-month period of balance information  804 . Spending in each of these three months of the second previous quarter  802  is based on known balance information B 4 -B 15 . 
         [0088]    Turning now to  FIG. 9 , there is shown a diagram  900  illustrating the balance information used for estimating spending in a third successive quarter  902  using a third twelve-month period of balance information  804 . Spending in each of these three months of the third previous quarter  902  is based on known balance information B 7 -B 18 . 
         [0089]    Turning now to  FIG. 10 , there is shown a diagram  1000  illustrating the balance information used for estimating spending in a fourth previous quarter  1002  using a fourth twelve-month period of balance information  1004 . Spending in each of these three months of the fourth previous quarter  1002  is based on balance information B 10 -B 21 . 
         [0090]    It should be readily appreciated that as the rolling calculations proceed, the consumer&#39;s category may change based on the outputs that result, and, therefore, different formula corresponding to the new category may be applied to the consumer for different periods of time. The rolling manner described above maximizes the known data used for estimating consumer spend in a previous twelve month period. 
         [0091]    Based on the final output generated for the customer, commensurate purchasing incentives may be identified and provided to the consumer, for example, in anticipation of an increase in the consumer&#39;s purchasing ability as projected by the output file. In such cases, consumers of good standing, who are categorized as transactors with a projected increase in purchasing ability, may be offered a lower financing rate on purchases made during the period of expected increase in their purchasing ability, or may be offered a discount or rebate for transactions with selected merchants during that time. 
         [0092]    In another example, and in the case where a consumer is a revolver, such consumer with a projected increase in purchasing ability may be offered a lower annual percentage rate on balances maintained on their credit account. 
         [0093]    Other like promotions and enhancements to consumers&#39; experiences are well known and may be used within the processes disclosed herein. 
         [0094]    Various statistics for validating the accuracy of the processes  300  and  600  are provided in  FIGS. 11-18 , for which a consumer sample size was analyzed by the process  200  and validated using twenty-four ( 24 ) months of historic actual spend data. The table  1100  of  FIG. 11  shows the number of consumers having a balance of $5000 or more for whom the estimated paydown percentage (calculated in step  604  above) matched the actual paydown percentage (as determined from internal transaction data and external consumer panel data). 
         [0095]    The table  1200  of  FIG. 12  shows the number of consumers having a balance of $5000 or more who were expected to be transactors or revolvers, and who actually turned out to be transactors and revolvers, based on actual spend data. As can be seen, the number of expected revolvers who turned out to be actual revolvers ( 80539 ) was many times greater than the number of expected revolvers who turned out to be transactors ( 1090 ). Likewise, the number of expected and actual transactors outnumbered by nearly four-to-one the number of expected transactors that turned out to be revolvers. 
         [0096]    The table  1300  of  FIG. 13  shows the number of estimated versus actual instances in the consumer sample in which there occurred a balance transfer into an account. For instance, in the period sampled, there were 148,326 instances where no balance transfers were identified in step  606  above, and for which a comparison of actual consumer data showed there were in fact no balances transferred in. This compares to only 9,534 instances where no balance transfers were identified in step  606 , but there were in fact actual balance transfers. 
         [0097]    The table  1400  of  FIG. 14  shows the accuracy of estimated spending (in steps  608 - 612 ) versus actual spending for consumers with account balances (at the time this sample testing was performed) greater than $5000. As can be seen, the estimated spending at each spending level most closely matched the same actual spending level in comparison to any other spending level in nearly all instances. 
         [0098]    The table  1500  of  FIG. 15  shows the accuracy of estimated spending (in steps  608 - 612 ) versus actual spending for consumers having most recent account balances between $1600 and $5000. As can be readily seen, the estimated spending at each spending level most closely matched the same actual spending level as compared to any other spending level in all instances. 
         [0099]    The table  1600  of  FIG. 16  shows the accuracy of estimated spending versus actual spending for all consumers in the sample. As can be readily seen, the estimated spending at each spending level most closely matched the same actual spending level as compared to any other actual spending level in all instances. 
         [0100]    The table  1700  of  FIG. 17  shows the rank order of estimated versus actual spending for all consumers in the sample. This table  1700  readily shows that the number of consumers expected to be in the bottom 10% of spending most closely matched the actual number of consumers in that category, by 827,716 to 22,721. The table  1700  further shows that the number of consumers expected to be in the top 10% of spenders most closely matched the number of consumers who were actually in the top 10%, by 71,773 to 22,721. 
         [0101]    The table  1800  of  FIG. 18  shows estimated versus actual annual spending for all consumers in the sample over the most recent year of available data. As can be readily seen, the expected number of consumers at each spending level most closely matched the same actual spending level as compared to any other level in all instances. 
         [0102]    Finally, the table  1900  of  FIG. 19  shows the rank order of estimated versus actual total annual spending for all the consumers over the most recent year of available data. Again, the number of expected consumers in each rank most closely matched the actual rank as compared to any other rank. 
         [0103]    Prospective customer populations used for modeling and/or later evaluation may be provided from any of a plurality of available marketing groups, or may be culled from credit bureau data, targeted advertising campaigns or the like. Testing and analysis may be continuously performed to identify the optimal placement and required frequency of such sources for using the size of spending wallet calculations. The processes described herein may also be used to develop models for predicting a size of wallet for an individual consumer in the future. 
         [0104]    Institutions adopting the processes disclosed herein may expect to more readily and profitably identify opportunities for prospect and customer offerings, which in turn provides enhanced experiences across all parts of a customer&#39;s lifecycle. In the case of a credit provider, accurate identification of spend opportunities allows for rapid provisioning of card member offerings to increase spend that, in turn, results in increased transaction fees, interest charges and the like. The careful selection of customers to receive such offerings reduces the incidence of fraud that may occur in less disciplined card member incentive programs. This, in turn, reduces overall operating expenses for institutions. 
         [0105]    All of the methods and steps described herein may be embodied within, and fully automated by, software modules executed by general-purpose computers. The software modules may be stored on any type of computer readable medium or storage device. 
         [0106]    Although the best methodologies of the disclosure have been particularly described above, it is to be understood that such descriptions have been provided for purposes of illustration only, and that other variations, both in form and in detail, can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope thereof, which is defined first and foremost by the appended claims.

Technology Classification (CPC): 6