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60d2798bef286f5055d44785 | My Conversation with Elijah Millgram | divpelijah is one of my favorite contemporary philosophers here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeselijahmillgram target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is part of the summaryp
blockquotepelijah joined tyler to discuss newcombs paradox the reason he doesnt have an opinion about everything the philosophy of dave barry style and simulation theory why philosophers arent often consulted about current events his best stories from taing for robert nozick the sociological correlates of knowing formal logic the question of whether people are more interested in truth or being interesting philosophical cycles what makes nietzsche important today the role that meaning can play in a persons personality and life mill on bentham the idea of true philosophy as dialogue the extent to which modern philosophers are truly philosophical why he views aesthetics as critical to philosophy and morepblockquote
phere is one excerptp
blockquote
pstrongcowenstrong a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprob target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdecisioncausalnewcprobnewcombs paradoxa are you a oneboxer or twoboxer and whyp
pstrongmillgramstrong ive never been able to take a stand on that mostly because theres this moment in robert nozicks a relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7 target_blank datahrefhttpslinkspringercomchapter1010072f9789401714662_7discussion of the newcomb paradoxa should we pause to tell the audience p
pstrongcowenstrong no no this is not for them this is for us they can google p
pstrongmillgramstrong oh this is for us ok nozick said look heres what happens when you get a class or not even a class people talk about newcombs paradox some people end up having one view and some people end up having the other view each side has the argument for their own view but they dont have the explanation of whats wrong with the other argument then nozick says and i think this is absolutely on target it doesnt help to just repeat your own argument more slowly and more loudlyp
psince i dont know whats wrong with the whichever other argument it is i dont have a viewp
pstrongcowenstrong if you dont have a view doesnt that by default put you close to the onebox position it means you dont consider the dominance principle selfevident because youre not sure that in fact youre getting more by opting for the two boxes quantum mechanics is weird aliens may be weirder yet you dont know what to do why not just take the slightly smaller prize and opt for one box not with extreme conviction but you would be a default mildly agnostic oneboxerp
pstrongmillgramstrong who knows what i would do if somebody turned up and gave me the p
pbut let me say something a little bit to the meta level and then ill speak to the view that i would be a oneboxer i live in a world where i feel disqualified from a privilege that almost everybody around me has people are supposed to have opinions about all kinds of things they have opinions about politics and they have opinions about sports teams and they have opinions about who knows whatp
pim in the very peculiar position of being in a job where im paid to have opinions i feel that i cant have opinions unless ive worked for them and i can back them up and that means that unless ive done my homework unless i have an argument for the opinion i dont have it so i dontp
pnow going back from the meta level kind of one level down lets stop and think about whats built into the p
pwhen you a relnoopener hrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategy target_blank datahrefhttpscorporatefinanceinstitutecomresourcesknowledgeotherdominantstrategyexplain dominancea to a classroom you say look here are the different options you have and i guess the options are used to the column and here are the different states of the world and you can see that for each state of the world this option does better than that option so you should take p
ptheres a lot built into that already for example that the world is carved up into these different the state space is carved up and your option space is carved up and you dont get to rethink recharacterize the characterization of the things that you do is already given to you and its fixed its an idealizationp
puntil the situation arrived and i had a chance to face it and think about it i wouldnt know whether to accept that idealization i know that sounds really coy but the principled view is that since i dont have an argument i dont have an opinionp
blockquote
precommended and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwelijahmillgramnet target_blankelijahs home page and researchap
divpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwithelijahmillgramhtmlmy conversation with elijah millgrama appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap
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60d2798bef286f5055d447c9 | My Conversation with the very very smart David Deutsch | divpi think this episode came off as weird and testy as i described it to one friend but i like weird and testy here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesdaviddeutsch target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is one excerptp
blockquote
pstrongcowen stronghow do you think the manyworlds interpretation of quantum mechanics relates to the view that just in terms of space the size of our current universe is infinite and therefore everything possible is happening in itp
pstrongdeutsch strongit complicates the discussion of probability but theres no overlap between that notion of infinity and the everettian notion of infinity if we are infinite there because the emdifferentiationem as i prefer to call what used to be called splitting when i perform an experiment which can go one of two ways the influence of that spreads out first i see it i may write it down i may write a scientific paper when i write a paper about it and report the results that will cause the journal to split or to differentiate into two journals and so on this influence cannot spread out faster than the speed of lightp
pso an everett universe is really a misnomer because what we see in real life is an everett bubble within the universe everything outside the bubble is as it was its undifferentiated or to be exact its exactly as differentiated as it was before then as the bubble spreads out the universe becomes or the multiverse becomes more differentiated but the bubble is always finitep
pstrongcowen stronghow do your views relate to the philosophical modal realism of a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewis target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesdavidlewisdavid lewisap
pstrongdeutsch strongthere are interesting parallels as a physicist im interested in what the laws of physics tell us is so rather than in philosophical reasoning about things unless they impinge on a problem that i have so yes im interested in for example the continuity of the self whether if theres another version of me a very large number of lightyears away in an infinite universe and its identical is that really me are there two of me one of me i dont entirely know the answer to that its why i dont entirely know the answer to whether i would go in a emstar trekem transporterp
pthe modal realism certainly involves a lot of things that i dont think exist at least not physically im open to the idea that nonphysical things do exist like the natural numbers i think exist theres a difference between the second even prime which doesnt exist and the infinite number of prime numbers which i think do exist i think that there is more than one mode of existence but the theory that all modes of existence are equally real i see no point in that the overlap between everett and david lewis is i think more coincidental than illuminatingp
pstrongcowen strongif the universe is infinite and if david lewis is correct should i feel closer to the david lewis copies of me the copies or near copies of me in this universe or the near copies of me in the multiverse it seems very crowded all of a sudden something whose purpose was to be economical doesnt feel that way to me by the end of the metaphysicsp
pstrongdeutsch strongit doesnt emfeelem like that to you well a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwjstororgstable40885126seq1as wittgenstein is supposed to have saida i dont know whether he really did if it were true what emwouldem it feel like it would feel just like thisp
blockquote
pmuch more at the link andp
blockquote
pstrongcowen strongare we living in a simulationp
pstrongdeutsch strongno because living in a simulation is precisely a case of there being a barrier beyond which we cannot understand if were living in a simulation thats running on some computer we cant tell whether that computer is made of silicon or iron or whether it obeys the same laws of computation like a relnoopener hrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachine target_blank datahrefhttpsplatostanfordeduentriesturingmachineturing computabilitya and a relnoopener hrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362 target_blank datahrefhttpsyoutubemckubqc6gkut362quantum computabilitya and so on as ours we cant know anything about the physics therep
pwell we can know that it is at least a superset of our physics but thats not saying very much its not telling us very much its a typical example of a theory that can be rejected out of hand for the same reason that the supernatural ones if somebody says zeus did it then im going to say how should i respond if i take that on board how should i respond to the next person that comes along and tells me that odin did itp
pstrongcowenstrong but it seems youre rejecting an empirical claim on methodological grounds and i get very suspicious philosophers typically reject transcendental arguments like oh we must be able to perceive reality because if we couldnt how could we know that we couldnt perceive reality it doesnt prove you can perceive reality rightp
blockquote
pand thisp
blockquote
pstrongcowen stronga few very practical questions to close given the way british elections seem to have been running that the tories win every time does that mean the errorcorrection mechanism of the british system of government now is weakerp
pstrongdeutsch strongno unfortunately the so as you probably know i favor the a relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepost target_blank datahrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgusdictionaryenglishfirstpastthepostfirstpastthepost systema in the purest possible form as it is implemented in britain i think that is the most errorcorrecting possible electoral system although i must add that the electoral system is only a tiny facet of the institutions of criticism and consent in general its just a tiny thing but it is the best onep
pits not perfect it has some of the defects of for example proportional representation proportional representation has the defect that it causes coalitions all the time coalitions are badp
pstrongcowen strongyou have a delegated monitor with the coalition right with a coalition say in the netherlands which is richer than the united kingdom you typically have coalition governments some parties in the coalition are delegated monitors of the other parties parties are better informed than voters isnt that a better popperian mechanism for error correctionp
blockquote
pi also tried to sum up what i think he is all about and he reacted with scorn that was an excellent part of the conversation and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommichael_nielsenstatus1400097799971115013 target_blanka good twitter thread from michael nielsena about the conversationp
divpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202106myconversationwiththeveryverysmartdaviddeutschhtmlmy conversation with the very very smart david deutscha appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap
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60dd5a057b17b52c881680e3 | My Conversation with Richard Prum | divpprum is an ornithologist at yale here is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesrichardprum target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is part of the summaryp
blockquoteprichard joined tyler to discuss the infidelity of australian birds the debate on the origins of avian flight how the lack of a penis explains why birds are so beautiful why albatrosses can afford to take so many years to develop before mating the game theory of ornithology how flowers advertise themselves like a can of coke how modern technology is revolutionizing bird watching why hes probird feeders yet anti outdoor cats how scarcity predicts territoriality in birds his favorite bird artist how oilbirds got their name how falcons and cormorants hunt and fish with humans whether birds exhibit a g factor why birds have regional accents whether puffins will perish why hes not excited about the idea of trying to bring back passenger pigeons the dumb question that marks a talented perspective ornithologist and morepblockquote
phere is one excerptp
blockquote
pstrongcowen strongputting path dependence aside if you were trying to give us the most fundamental explanation of why sexual dimorphism is different in birds compared to mammals what would that bep
pstrongprum strongwell thats actually a emreallyem big question [laughs]p
pstrongcowen strongof course but the most fundamental factor what is itp
pstrongprum strongthe most fundamental factor is that most birds dont have a penisp
pstrongcowen strongtalk me through the equilibrium therep
pstrongprum strong[laughs] theres a lot thats where we start most birds dont have a penis which means that one of the things that happens in avian evolution thats distinct from mammals is that the kids require a lot of care theyre growing up in the nest theyre hatching out of an egg but theyre very very vulnerable until they can flyp
pbirds have a very rapid period of rapid development that means that they grow up and leave the nest and you need two parents to do that efficiently in most diets or most kinds of ecologies that means the dads got to be at the nestp
pwe usually thought that you have social monogamy at least two birds helping raise the young because the young are so needy and they have to grow up quickly but theres another possibility which is that they could evolve to be so needy and grow up quickly embecauseem they managed to get males at the nestp
pone of the things that happened in the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticlesnature15697phylogeny of birdsa youve got ostriches and their relatives and youve got chickens and ducks and then youve got the rest of birds and thats a bunch thats the vast majority of them and in that lineage leading to the rest of birds the penis evolved away and the question is why my own theory is that female birds preferred mates that did not have a penisp
pone of the ancillary benefits of that one of the correlated benefits of that is that they were no longer subject to sexual coercion or sexual violence they could be coerced behaviorally but they couldnt be forcibly fertilized that means that they have freedom of choice and what do they do with their freedom of choice a relnoopener hrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285 target_blank datahrefhttpsroyalsocietypublishingorgdoi101098rstb20110285they choose beautya one of the reasons why birds are so beautiful is that males dont have a penis they have to be subject to choice in order to effect reproduction and also they have to invest if females require itp
pstrongcowen strongnow sometimes albatrosses dont breed until theyre 20 years old or even on average maybe its what 10 years old what are they doing in the meantime thats so importantp
pstrongprum strongwell that is a deep questionp
blockquote
precommended this was one of my favorite cwt episodesp
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60ef7428375b1898198db929 | My Conversation with Alexander the Grate | phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesalexanderthegrate target_blankthe audio video and transcripta recorded outside in sw washington dc and no that is not a typo he does call himself alexander the grate his real name shall remain a secret here is the event summaryp
blockquote
palexander the grate has spent 40 years more than half of his life living on the streets and heating grates of washington dc he prefers the label nfa no fixed address rather than homeless since in his view were all a little bit homeless even millionaires are just one catastrophe away from losing their mansions its a life that certainly comes with many challenges but that hasnt stopped him from enjoying the immense cultural riches of the capital he and his friends have probably attended more lectures foreign films concerts talks and tours at local museums than many of its wealthiest denizens the result is a perspective as unique as the city itselfp
palexander joined tyler to discuss the littlerecognized issue of toilet insecurity how covid19 affected his lifestyle the hierarchy of local shelters the origins of the cootie game the difference between being nfa in dc versus other cities how networking helped him navigate life as a new nfa how the capitol hill freebie finders fellowship got started why he loves school field trip season his most memorable freebie food experience the reason he isnt enthusiastic about a universal basic income the economic sword of damocles he sees hanging over america how local development is changing dc his design for a better community shelter and morep
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pandp
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p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongwhats the best food you end up with where is it from whats an a for a food dayp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyou want my classification systemp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen stronglets hear it absolutely im a foodie toop
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongokay youre jumping around toop
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongyes this is the point of the podcast this is the jumparound podcastp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyeah but lets consummate one thought at a time theres some cool stuff here fun stuff alright thats the beginning of the bums banquet for those that are not fully acclimatized we had astrong strongclassification system this is a class a it hasnt even been taken out of its wrapper class b maybe theres one bite tyo trim your own we found some of it still in its wrapper double a would be from the hand of the person donating to us triple a would still be hotp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongwhats a d cp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongonly the rats know that a lot of forks here but well keep it to the general stuff first anyway after hours at the picnic tables of the [library of congress] madison building thats where this happened eightfoot diameter tables so we could fit 10 people around there that was a continuation of the freebie finders and the bums banquet and all thatp
p dataselectableparagraphbut one more thing about the lunches were an overfed population the affluent society are you really hungry three times a day its a luxury to have that many when people have to hesitate what am i going to eat now truth to tell i dont really need it but its become a tradition a tradition of the affluent we dont need to eat as much as we do its more habit than anythingp
p dataselectableparagraphbut the kids the juniorhigh kids throwing their lunch away they didnt know that at the bottom of the bag their mamma left a napkin with a stick figure on it saying hi hope youre having a good time in dc love mom mothers love comes along with a peanut butter sandwich but under the napkin is up to 2 in change or bills for drink money [laughs] so theres cash left behind there toop
p dataselectableparagraphalright lets back up a few tangents here man you have a lot of things out on the floor herep
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen stronga lot of things going balls being juggledp
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p dataselectableparagraphandp
blockquote
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongsome economists i know have promoted the idea its called universal basic income and its something like every person would get 10000 including nfas is this a good ideap
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongyes finland okay save that for that because im going to ask you p
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongyou can ask me your question now but also just indicate if you think thats a good idea bad idea in between and then you ask me yoursp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongalright i want to ask you just the answer national debt this was before the multitrilliondollar relief bills had been signed into law by the presidentp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongcorrectp
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate stronga progressive algorithm no doubt but i dont know if theyll factor in if its the fiveyear plan for the 5 trillion and theyll add 1 trillion automatically to this amount but its pushing 30 trillion which is what you can scan this quick 84000 for every man woman and child in americap
p dataselectableparagraphstrongcowen strongso youre a fiscal conservativep
p dataselectableparagraphstrongalexander the grate strongim just an observer at this point the point is i see this number and i see a sword of damocles hanging over the economic head of america i know a lot of its built in but theoretically if all this came due catastrophically overnight do we have a planp
blockquote
p dataselectableparagraphrecommended you wont find many podcast episodes like this one it is noteworthy that alexander has a better and bigger vocabulary than the median cwt guest also this is one episode where listening and reading are especially different due to the ambient sounds alexanders comments on the passing trains and so on parts are beckettesquep
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61144d7b1e2c3bfc273a1deb | My Conversation with Andrew Sullivan | phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodesandrewsullivan target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is part of the overviewp
blockquotepandrew joined tyler to discuss the role of the aids epidemic in achieving marriage equality the difficulty of devoutness in everyday life why public intellectuals often lack courage how being a gay man helps him access perspectives he otherwise wouldnt how drugs influence his ideas the reasons why hes a passionate defender of sats and iq tests what niall ferguson and boris johnson were like as fellow undergraduates what americans get wrong about british politics why so few people share his admiration for margaret thatcher why bowie was so special why emairplaneem is his favorite movie what oakeshottian conservatism offers us today whether wokeism has a positive influence globally why he someday hopes to glower at the sea from in the west of ireland and morepblockquote
pand here is one excerptp
blockquote
pstrongsullivan strongwell and so you get used to real conversations about people and you dont mistake credentials for intelligence you realize that people outside of the system may be more perceptive about whats going wrong with it than people buried within it i honestly find life more interesting the more variety of people you get to know and meet and that means from all sorts of different ways of lifep
pthe good thing about being gay i will tell you is that that happens more often than if youre straight because its a great equalizer you are more likely to come across someone who really is from a totally different socioeconomic group than you are through sexual and romantic attraction and indeed the existence of this subterranean world that is taken from every other particular class and structure than you would if you just grew up in a straight world where you didnt have to question these things and where your social life was bound up with your work or with your professional peersp
pthe idea for me of dating someone in my office would be absolutely bizarre for example i cant believe all these straight people that just look around them and say oh lets get married whereas gay people have this immense social system that can throw up anybody from any way of life into your social circlep
blockquote
pinteresting throughout and again here is andrews new book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomoutlimbselectedwriting19892021dp150115589xrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsandrewsullivanqid1628685510sr81 target_blankout on a limb selected writing 19892021ap
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61159e9a21e7fdae5c6a2fde | That was then, this is now, climate change edition the median voter theorem remains underrated | blockquotephigher gasoline costs if left unchecked risk harming the ongoing global recovery the price of crude oil has been higher than it was at the end of 2019 before the onset of the pandemic while opec recently agreed to production increases these increases will not fully offset previous production cuts that opec imposed during the pandemic until well into 2022 at a critical moment in the global recovery this is simply not enough president biden has made clear that he wants americans to have access to affordable and reliable energy including at the pump although we are not a party to a datalinknamein body link hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancombusinessopec datacomponentautolinkedtagopeca the united states will always speak to international partners regarding issues of significance that affect our national economic and security affairs in public and privatepblockquote
pthat is uma relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomcommentisfree2021aug12pushingoilproductionusjoebidenkillingclimatepledges target_blanknot from the trump administrationa ratherp
ppigou club getting smallerp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thatwasthenthisisnowclimatechangeeditionthemedianvotertheoremremainsunderratedhtmlthat was then this is now climate change edition the median voter theorem remains underrateda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61159eaa21e7fdae5c6a2fe0 | Fluvoxamine seems to work against Covid-19 | blockquote datawidth500 classtwittertweet datadnttrue
p langen dirltrinterim results of a hrefhttpstwittercomtogethertrialref_srctwsrc5etfwtogethertriala of ivermectin and fluvoxamine for early treatment of a hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagcovid_19srchashref_srctwsrc5etfwcovid_19a a hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagivermectinsrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwivermectina no significant effecta hrefhttpstwittercomhashtagfluvoxaminesrchashref_srctwsrc5etfwfluvoxaminea risk of hospitalization by 31brthese important results deserve a 1n a hrefhttpstcoosy1p91hs2httpstcoosy1p91hs2ap
p julien potet julienpotet a hrefhttpstwittercomjulienpotetstatus1425751466271195137ref_srctwsrc5etfwaugust 12 2021apblockquote
pp
pthat is from a project funded by fast grantsp
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61159ee621e7fdae5c6a2fe6 | The TGA is Worse than the FDA, and the Australian Lockdown | pi have been highly critical of the fda but in australia the fda is almost a model to be emulated steven hamilton and richard holden a hrefhttpswwwafrcompolicyhealthandeducationoncovid19themedicalregulatorycomplexhasfailedus20210809p58hawdo not mince wordsap
blockquotepat the end of 2020 as vaccines were rolling out en masse in the northern hemisphere the tga [therapeutic goods administration at] flatly refused to issue the emergency authorisations other regulators did as a result the tga didnt approve the pfizer vaccine until january 25 more than six weeks after the us food and drug administration fda itself not exactly the poster child of expeditiousnessp
psimilarly the tga didnt approve the astrazeneca vaccine until february 16 almost seven weeks after the ukp
pin case youre wondering what difference does six weeks make think again were our rollout six weeks faster the current sydney outbreak would likely never have exploded saving many lives and livelihoods in the face of an exponentially spreading virus that has become twice as infectious six weeks is an eternity and indeed nothing has changed the tga approved the moderna vaccine this week eight months after the fdap
pit approved looser cold storage requirements for the pfizer vaccine which would allow the vaccine to be more widely distributed and reduce wastage on april 8 six weeks after the fda and it approved the pfizer vaccine for use by 12 to 15yearolds on july 23 more than 10 weeks after the fdap
pand then theres the tgas staggering decision not to approve inhome rapid tests over reliability concerns despite their widespread approval and use overseasp
pwheres the approval of the mixandmatch vaccine regimen used to great effect in canada where astrazeneca is combined with pfizer to expand supply and increase efficacy wheres the guidance for those whove received two doses of astrazeneca that theyll be able to receive a pfizer booster laterp
pin the aftermath of the pandemic when almost all of us should be fully vaccinatedthere will be ample opportunity to figure out exactly who is to blame for whatp
pbut the slow insular and excessively cautious advice of our medical regulatory complex which comprehensively failed to grasp the massive consequences of delay and inaction must be right at the top of that listpblockquote
pyou might be tempted to argued that the tga can afford to take its time since covid hasnt been as bad in australia as in the united states but that would be to ignore the costs of the australian lockdownp
particle 13 of the a hrefhttpswwwunorgenaboutusuniversaldeclarationofhumanrightsuniversal declaration of human rightsa states thatp
blockquote
ol
lieveryone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each stateli
lieveryone has the right to leave any country including his own and to return to his countryli
ol
blockquote
pa hrefhttpscovid19homeaffairsgovauleavingaustraliaaustralia has now violated each and every clause of this universal human righta and seemingly without much debate or objection it is deeply troubling to see people prevented from leaving or entering their own country and a hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58021718soldiers in the streeta making sure people do not travel beyond a perimeter surrounding their homes the costs of lockdown are very high and thus so is any delay in ending these unprecedented infringements on libertyp
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611c537c2654b3ac01ebf2c0 | Biden’s most heartless betrayal | pive been clear president joe biden a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtmltolda the american people on monday that human rights must be the centre of our foreign policy not the periphery but the way to do it is not through endless military deployments its with our diplomacy our economic tools and rallying the world to join usp
pas i listened to those words i found myself admiring the political skill of bidens speechwriters and despising their utter callousness i wanted to shout at the tv but what about the a relnoopener hrefhttpsdataworldbankorgindicatorsppoptotlfeinlocationsafmost_recent_value_descfalse target_blank19 million womena now sentenced by american foreign policy to a life of darkness under the taliban surely they deserve human rights toop
pdo you seriously expect anyone to believe that american diplomacy will make the taliban treat women fairly is rallying the world remotely likely to keep afghan girls in schools or allow women to walk down the streets of kabul with their faces uncovered do you take us all for foolsp
divdiv
pthe biden administrations cool calculated and yet incompetent abandonment of the afghan people stems from two core problemsp
pthe first is a failure of imagination biden claimed to have planned for every contingency so did he not consider evacuating the afghans who qualified for special immigrant visas and their families an estimated a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomworld20210816afghanswhohelpedwestleftlimboevacuationturnschaotic target_blank800000 individualsa before withdrawing all us special forces was the pandemonium at the airport so very hard to foreseep
pon a larger scale there was a massive failure to imagine what american interests in the region are how to protect them and what the repercussions of ignoring them could be a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210816uspoliticsbidentalibanafghanistanspeechhtml target_blankto bidena americas only vital national interest in afghanistan [is] preventing a terrorist attack on american homeland this is shortsightedp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages1204741868scalede16290370942841024x6081300x178jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarh5can the taliban bring peaceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108canthetalibanbringpeacerefinnarspanbyspan aris roussinosapdivadiv
pin reality this chaotic humiliating withdrawal significantly increases the risk of a terror attack on the us homeland aside from revealing a dysfunctional american foreign policy apparatus in intelligence terms afghanistan is now a black hole even if we are able to extricate some of our afghan intelligence assets the us has lost a key source of information on jihadist activityp
pa little bit more imagination would also have revealed how china iran and other current adversaries will likely use the afghan fiasco to their advantage did the president not consider how his actions in afghanistan could embolden xi jinpings dream of a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldchinachinasxipledgesreunificationwithtaiwanpartysbirthday20210701 target_blankreunificationa with taiwan is the us now in a stronger or weaker negotiating position with regard to the iranian regime did the president project enough power this week to convince his russian counterpart to crack down on the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorg202107091014512241russiancyberattackspresentseriousthreattous target_blankransomware attacks that appear to emanate from his territoryap
pand what about our allies will india trust the us as the leading partner of the quad along with australia and japan designed to check the growing power of china how about our european partners and the transatlantic alliancep
pthe second problem informing bidens approach concerns the moral decay of western civilisation when a fish decays the head rots first the same can be said for the west weve become so focused on microaggressions in america that we have lost sight of the emmacroaggressionsem happening to women around the worldp
pin my latest book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwharpercollinscomproductspreyayaanhirsialivariant32126595203106 target_blankempreyema i argue that the modernday feminist movement in the west does not take seriously the concerns of women in workingclass communities many of whom have immigrant backgrounds and who face a steady rise of sexual harassment and assault on the streets of their own neighbourhoodsp
pin todays perverse american culture however more attention is devoted to the use of preferred gender pronouns than to the plight of women whose most basic rights to education personal autonomy the right to be present in a public space are either removed or under serious threatp
pwhat weve witnessed this week in afghanistan is a watershed moment in western decline american culture today tells us not to be proud of our country not to believe in the superiority of american values not to promote the rights we are afforded by our constitution so that they can be enjoyed by people around the worldp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108f43fr3gr3g4e16291313319521300x154jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarh5the west has lost its virtueh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whythewestwillcollapserefinnarspanbyspan paul kingsnorthapdivadiv
pwhen rights are promoted they tend to be progressive interpretations weve reached a point where we proudly flew the lgbt flag from our a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlgbtqnationcom202106usembassiesflownprideflagantilgbtqcountriesearthyear target_blankembassy in kabula when the going was good but have now abandoned afghanistans gay population to the taliban meanwhile a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnavymilcnoprofessionalreadingprogramsailors target_blankthe us navys reading lista now includes books such as emsexual minorities and politics emand emhow to be an antiracistem both of which paint a bleak picture of the united states its history and its identityp
phow then can we hope to defend the basic rights of women and minorities elsewhereem emamerican selfconfidence has morphed into nihilism were all talk and no action beyond retreat that is why womens rights activists interpreters and anyone who has worked with the american people have been forced to hide in afghanistan while the taliban go a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomfrudbezhanstatus1427214496444162049 target_blankdoortodoor looking for themap
pwhat will now happen to the women of afghanistan when asked if womens rights will be respected the taliban governor of the andar district in ghazni province mawlavey kamiil a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvljn7kifjqqit4s target_blanksaida we assure this to people all over the world especially the people of afghanistan islam has given rights to everyone equally women have their own rights how much islam has given rights to women we will give them that much similarly a member of the talibans cultural commission enamullah samangani has a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewsweekcomfemaleanchorsdefytalibancontinuingpresentafghanistannewschannel1620053 target_blankpromiseda that women should be in the government structure according to sharia lawp
pthis caveat is important women will only have the rights afforded to them by islam under orthodox sharia law women can inherit property but not at the same level as men generally half as much women can testify in court but their testimony is not equal to a mans word women have a right to divorce under specific circumstances but not a unilateral right as men have a male guardian is essential for a woman a woman can have one husband whereas a man can have up to four wivesp
pyet the texts of sharia law do not fully capture the brutal reality of daily life for women under a regime like the talibans in the last period of taliban rule which ended with the invasion of 2001 women were forced to wear the burka when outside if they were allowed to leave the house at all they were not educated in any meaningful sense other than in some cases the most basic religious education they were forced into marriages often as young girls with men who used them as chattels brutal punishments for small transgressions made women little better than slavesp
pwe must not forget a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnprorgsectionsthetwoway20101013130527903bibiaishadisfiguredafghanwomanfeaturedontimecovervisitsus target_blankbibi aishaa who was featured on the cover of emtimeem magazine in 2010 as a young woman she attempted to escape from her abusive husband whom she had been forced to marry but when the taliban caught her they had her ears and nose chopped off or malala yousafzai who was shot in 2012 by a taliban fighter because she dared to advocate for girls educationp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages475256249scalede16272289313921024x5601300x164jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarh5americas spiteful foreign policyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107howtoinvadeaforeigncountryrefinnarspanbyspan ayaan hirsi aliapdivadiv
pnow the taliban are claiming that women and girls will be able to continue their education as long as they wear full burkas taliban spokesperson suhail shaheen a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsavworldasia58223530 target_blankexplaineda that the policy is that women can have access to education and to work however the reality for afghan women seems rather different they are now for example barely to be seen on the a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjohnbermanstatus1427582623845601281s12 target_blankstreets of afghan citiesap
pyes the modernised taliban has done some media training but we should not be fooled the islamic emirate of afghanistan will be governed by the same draconian sharia law as the taliban regime of the past a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwhindustantimescomworldnewstalibanasksforlistofgirlswidowstobemarriedtotheirfightersreports101626413987086html target_blankreportsa are already emerging of girls being taken as child brides with the taliban ordering local religious leaders to give them a list of girls over 15 years of age and widows under 45 to marry their fightersp
pwomens faces are being a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbusinessinsidercomkabulsalonposterswomenpaintedovertalibanarrival20218 target_blankwhitewasheda from billboards throughout kabul women in kandahar a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificafghanwomenbankersforcedrolestalibantakescontrol20210813 target_blankhave been tolda not to return to their jobs at azizi bank and that instead male relatives could take their place in a small village in the faryan province the taliban a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnncom20210817asiaafghanistanwomentalibanintlhnkdstindexhtml target_blankknocked on doors and demanded to be feda if women protested they were beaten and even killed this is just the beginningp
pover the last several days ive wept bitter tears for the women and girls whose futures are now blighted through no fault of their own i have felt an overwhelming sense of impotence even as i have personally tried to help get vulnerable people out of kabul but this sense of impotence is now giving way to a feeling of anger and of renewed purposep
pwe have to do better we have to solve this disease of moral decay within our own society and improve our imaginative skills american decline is not inevitable it is a choice standing by our allies is a choice standing up for human rights is a choicep
phaving blundered into this wholly predictable mess biden has no option but to fight until every american is safely out of afghanistan but he cant stop there he should throw his weight behind saving every afghan who has risked life and limb for america he needs to get womens rights activists and leaders out of the countryp
pthe islamic emirate of afghanistan may be the future for afghanistan but it will cant be the future for the brave people who risked their lives to fight barbarityp
a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108bidensmostheartlessbetrayalappcommentsview commentsa |
611d88003e00864ef8e3e1a5 | More reasons to use #NewRoaring20s unironically | pi hope new roaring twenties becomes a hashtag more like greatstagnation rather than infrastructureweek and by that i mean newroaring20s becomes sincere shorthand for describing something real and important rather than something that could have been important but turned into a joke well until recently that isp
psome evidence for that former scenario can be found in a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210818usproductivityboom target_blankthe us could be on the verge of a productivity boom a gamechanger for the economya by ace washington post reporter heather long after highlighting the recent upsurge in the productivity stats labor productivity grew 43 percent in the first quarter and 23 percent in the second versus an annual average of just 12 percent since the global financial crisis long explains why some analysts think a level of acceleration might stick around the optimism this time derives partly from congress and the white house taking steps to make significant investments in physical and digital infrastructure and partly from the coronavirus pandemic forcing rapid and widespread adoption of the digital economy robots and artificial intelligencep
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pone of the many interesting bits of evidence in longs richly reported piece highlights how ai machine learning is diffusing more widely into the economy she notes for example that california software company cadence design systems recently unveiled a new software dubbed cerebrus meant to make microchip engineers more productive longp
blockquote classwpblockquotepon a recent call with wall street analysts cadence executives said cerebrus makes chip engineers 10 times more productive the kind of gain that could ultimately lower chip costs not to mention getting faster turnaround for new products i believe cerebrus is a fundamental breakthrough said anirudh devgan president of cadence design systems on a recent earnings callpblockquote
pcerebrus is a good example of ai complementing workers and making them more productive rather than merely replacing workers i would also point out that the phenomenon being described here by long is a big reason why economist and productivity optimist erik brynjolfsson thinks productivity growth over the next decade will exceed consensus forecasts as he recently a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpslongbetsorg868 target_blankexplaineda in long bet with economist and productivity pessimist robert gordonp
blockquote classwpblockquotepai is a generalpurpose technology that is affecting almost every industry while accelerating the pace of discovery recent breakthroughs in machine learning will boost productivity in areas as diverse as biotech and medicine energy technologies retailing finance manufacturing and professional services the productivity benefits of generalpurpose technologies typically take years to show up in the official statistics in fact productivity is initially suppressed as organizations invest time and effort creating intangible assets like new business processes new skills new goods and new services however later these investments are harvested boosting productivity the result is a productivity jcurve recent research indicates that are approaching the rising part of the productivity jcurve for the ai and related technologiespblockquote
pnot surprisingly perhaps i urge policymakers to assume this is a productivity blip rather than a boom as they think about policies from immigration to environmental regulation to research investmentp
p divpstronglearn more stronga hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicssomereasonsforfaster2020sproductivitygrowthsome reasons for faster 2020s productivity growtha a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsalongbetonfasterproductivitygrowthandanewroaringtwentiesa long bet on faster productivity growth and a new roaring twentiesa a hrefhttpswwwaeiorgarticlesbidensbudgetpredictstheroaringtwentieswillendin2022uhohbidens budget predicts the roaring twenties will end in 2022 uh ohapdiv br
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgeconomicsmorereasonstousenewroaring20sunironicallymore reasons to use newroaring20s unironicallya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwaeiorgamerican enterprise institute aeiap |
611d88223e00864ef8e3e1a6 | What should I ask Ed Glaeser? | phe has a new book out with david cutler namely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationap
pi will be doing a joint cwt with them sequentially rather than simultaneous so what should i ask ed glaeser there is a separate post for suggestions for cutlerp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskedglaeserhtmlwhat should i ask ed glaesera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
611d88233e00864ef8e3e1a7 | What should I ask David Cutler? | phe has a new book out with ed glaeser namely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsurvivalcitylivingthrivingisolationebookdpb08v896zd6refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsdavidcutleredglaeserqid1629204629sr81 target_blanksurvival of the city living and thriving in an age of isolationap
pi will be doing a joint cwt with them sequentially rather than simultaneous so what should i ask david cutler there is a separate post for suggestions for glaeserp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whatshouldiaskdavidcutlerhtmlwhat should i ask david cutlera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
611d882f3e00864ef8e3e1aa | A reader’s wishes for Covid coverage | pfrom my emailp
pin the last 1819 months why have these stories not been writtenbr
why no stories on hospice care in the united states relating to covid19 statistics hospice has been removed from our common lexicon ive asked you this before i knowbr
why no stories on the earnings of publicly held life insurance companies br
why no stories about strategies written about the myriad of home health care providers in this country what is their role in lessening hospital stays in the last 18 months did they play a rolebr
why know detailed explanation of how excess deaths are calculated what are the excess death estimates for the next 5 years i assume the data is easily foundbr
no actuaries providing keen information and insightsbr
detailed investigations and stories of the traveling nurse industry i know several interesting stories to say the least mostly regarding compensationbr
no keen insights from the coroners industry the inexact science of cause of death in the last 100 yearsp
pwould love you thoughts on my questions and why have there been no stories about the abovep
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108areaderswishesforcovidcoveragehtmla readers wishes for covid coveragea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
611d887b3e00864ef8e3e1b1 | Those new service sector jobs? — drive your own kid to school | blockquotepbus drivers are in such short supply that eastside charter school in wilmington del is offering parents 700 to drop off and pick up their children for the school yearpblockquote
pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcombusiness20210816schoolshortagesbusdriverscounselorscomputer target_blankthe articlea is interesting throughout it turns out there is a shortage of bus drivers a shortage of buses with working ac chip issues and some schools are flush with cash due to government stimulusp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thosenewservicesectorjobsdriveyourownkidtoschoolhtmlthose new service sector jobs drive your own kid to schoola appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
611d88843e00864ef8e3e1b2 | Slow economists, crowding each other out | blockquoteppublishing in economics proceeds much more slowly on average than in the natural sciences and more slowly than in other social sciences and finance it is even relatively slower at the extremes we demonstrate that much of the lag especially at the extremes arises from authors dilatory behavior in revising their work the marginal product of an additional round of resubmission at the top economics journals is productive of additional subsequent citations but conditional on resubmission journals taking more time is not productive and authors spending more time is associated with reduced scholarly impact we offer several proposals to speed up the publication process these include norevisions policies limits on authors time revising articles and limits on editors waiting for dilatory refereespblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29147fromrss target_blankthe full papera by aboozar hadavand daniel s hamermesh and wesley w wilson and from lester r lusher winnie yang and scott e carrell here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw29153fromrss target_blanka related studyap
blockquoteppublishing takes a long time in economics consequently many authors release working versions of their papers using data on the nber working paper series we show that the dissemination of economics research suffers from an overcrowding problem an increase in the number of weekly released working papers on average reduces downloads abstract views and media attention for each paper subsequent publishing and citation outcomes are harmed as well furthermore descriptive evidence on viewership and downloads suggests working papers significantly substitute for the dissemination function of publication these results highlight inefficiencies in the dissemination of economic research even among the most exclusive working paper series and suggest large social losses due to the slow publication processpblockquote
pis less attention for each paper necessarily a bad thingp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108sloweconomistscrowdingeachotherouthtmlslow economists crowding each other outa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
611ed9e7f50d6f279653f5f1 | Who Wrecked Afghanistan? | hrimg altwho wrecked afghanistan srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202108desertjpgphtml herepphow did it all go wrong jennifer brick murtazashvili a leading scholar of afghanistan joins damir and shadi to dissect the talibans victory and discuss what it tells us about the failures of americas nationbuilding effort why did the afghan government collapse so quickly have the technocrats and ngos in the democracy promotion industry been completely discredited and for the sake of the afghan people should we now help the taliban succeed in governing the country things get heatedppmurtazashvili is director of the center for governance and markets and associate professor at the university of pittsburgh and the author of ema hrefhttpswwwamazoncominformalorderafghanistanjennifermurtazashvilidp1107534585refsr_1_1dchild1keywordsinformalorderandthestateinafghanistanqid1629341396sbookssr11informal order and the state in afghanistana emshe lived in afghanistan for 3 years conducting fieldwork in rural villages across the country and previously worked at the us agency for international development and the afghanistan research and evaluation unit ppemrecommended readingempullijen murtazashvili a hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcompolitics20210728northernafghanistanoncekeptouttalibanwhyhasitfallensoquicklythistimein the emwashington postemaliliquotafghanistan is not the balkansquot by thomas barfield a hrefhttpswwwresearchgatenetpublication309781126_afghanistan_is_not_the_balkans_ethnicity_and_its_political_consequence_from_a_central_asian_perspectiveresearchgatealiliemafghanistan a cultural and political historyem by thomas barfield a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomafghanistanculturalpoliticalprincetonpoliticsdp0691154414amazonalilia hrefhttpstwittercomshadihamidstatus1428025114642325505s20nassim taleba on the talibans refusal to deadliftliliquota hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcominternationalarchive201804terrorismgovernancereligion556817utm_sourcegltwwhen terrorists and criminals govern better than governmentsaquot by shadi hamid vanda felbabbrown and harold trinkunas emthe atlanticemliulhrpif youre not yet a paid member now is a great time to subscribe which you can do a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivesubscribeherea for a few dollars a month pp a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdsliveportalsignup target_blankappyoull also get access to our paywalled a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivefriday_essaysfriday essaysa as well as to special memberonly conversations with guests like glenn greenwald ross douthat and sohrab ahmari p |
611eda47f50d6f279653f5f9 | How to think about third doses | pthe immediate topic is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcoviddatasciencecompostisraelidatahowcanefficacyvsseverediseasebestrongwhen60ofhospitalizedarevaccinated target_blankhow to interpret the israeli dataa important and mostly good news relatively speaking that is i am reluctant to excerpt for fear of misleading you please do read through the complexity simpsons paradoxp
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611eda4af50d6f279653f5fa | Who are the most rational people? | pa relnoopener hrefhttpslinkspringercomarticle101007s11109019095790 target_blankfrom john a doces and amy wolaverap
blockquotepwe examine the question of rationality replicating two core experiments used to establish that people deviate from the rational actor model our analysis extends existing research to a developing country context based on our theoretical expectations we test if respondents make decisions consistent with the rational actor framework experimental surveys were administered in cte divoire and ghana two developing countries in west africa focusing on issues of risk aversion and framing findings indicate that respondents make decisions more consistent with the rational actor model than has been found in the developed world extending our analysis to test if the differences in responses are due to other demographic differences between the african samples and the united states we replicated these experiments on a nationally representative analysis in the us finding results primarily consistent with the seminal findings of irrationality in the us and cte divoire highly educated people make decisions that are less consistent with the rational model while lowincome respondents make decisions more consistent with the rational model the degree to which people are iirrationali thus is contextual possibly western and not nearly as universal as has been concludedpblockquote
pspeculative and not replicated but the point remains of definite interest via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupforwhomthebelltolls target_blankkevin lewisap
p p
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611eda6ff50d6f279653f5ff | Don’t blame testosterone for male violence | pwhen he appeared on channel 4s emafter darkem to discuss do men have to be violent with radical feminist kate millett actor oliver reed was drunk a woman will never ever forgive a man if he fucks her he explained you are the receivers you take our seed look after our babies and well go do the hunting for youp
pit was 1991 the height of the gulf war and the debate on militarism masculine stereotypes and violence towards women was punctuated with references to testosterone at one point after he had nipped to the loo and topped up his glass reed leant over to kiss millett much to her disgust leading one male guest to pronounce a man can never have too much [testosterone]p
pin her new book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone the story of the hormone that dominates and divides usema carole hooven explores how the hormone is often presented as both a justification and excuse for male dominance over women women have far lower levels of testosterone so it has often been argued that housework and childrearing come naturally to them men on the other hand are programmed to be hellbent on impregnating as many women as possible fighting off male rivals and dragging a carcass home for dinnerp
pbut as hooven acknowledges in her fascinating book despite the undeniable effect of the hormone on our behaviour how we relate to others is based on evolving and complex external forcesp
pboth sexes produce testosterone though men create up to twenty times more testosterone then is at the heart of the nature versus nurture debate for feminists it is our culture rather than hormones that most influences gendered behaviours there are for instance enough studies which show that women enjoy a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomlifeandstyle2018oct13astronglibidoandboredbymonogamythetruthaboutwomenandsex target_blankplenty of sexa and risk on par with the most testosteronefuelled menp
pits the same with male and female behaviour neither of which can be reduced to binary a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvo1tfbk3971s target_blankken and barbiea stereotypes as a lesbian and gender nonconforming feminist i know this only too well when i rejected traditional female toys and dress i was frequently told i had too much testosterone and that was what made me a tomboy even into adult life i have lost count of the times i have been told im a lesbian or that i will grow a beard and never feel a desire to reproduce because i have too much testosteronep
pits a load of nonsense but it raises an important question how is it that the genetic and hormonal components of sex can create two distinctly different reproductive systems and yet human male and female behaviour shows itself to be flexible diverse and often surprisingly similarp
phoovers expertise is in natural sciences and biological anthropology and the answer she suggests is that testosterone might strongly influence how we behave too much of it can make males more aggressive and those with raised levels often end up taking too many risks so they tend to crash and burnp
pthat may seem logical but it does not explain violence against women or rape as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcordeliafinecom target_blankcordelia finea author of the acclaimed emtestosterone rex em2017 points out most men are emnotem violent which leaves a hole in the theory that testosterone drives behaviourp
pnevertheless if we are to properly understand sex differences we still need to educate ourselves about testosterone crucially the controversy around trans women in sport namely that going through male puberty results not just in far higher levels of tesosterone but also greater bone and muscle mass is tackled headon by hoover you may be wondering if natural variation in t [testosterone] levels has anything to do with being transgender in the first place she writes and given what we know about testosterone thats a logical question the answer is we dont knowp
pindeed hooven found that there is not much relation between higher testosterone levels and performance among professional athletes when compared to others of the same sex between the two sexes however the link is very much stronger and this is because t levels are dramatically higher in males and have a lot to do with the fact that they are stronger faster and more aggressive than the vast majority of their female counterparts that is of course why we have sexsegregated sports in the first placep
pif we accept that testosterone can cause aggression in males and change behaviour which hooven does should it be used as an excuse in cases of male sexual assault no says hooven because even behaviour related to biology is not hardwired and unchangeable even if biology is a factor in social ill it does not make it determinedp
pyet it is disappointing that hooven relies on questionable data to challenge the reality of male violence for example in picking apart the trope that male violence towards women is inevitable because it is hormonedriven she looks to the violence perpetrated by women on male partners and concludes that with caveats women are as likely to be violent to male partners as viceversa but less likely to kill i have campaigned to end violence towards women and girls for 40 years and every bit of a relnoopener hrefhttpwwwrefugeorgukfilesstatisticsdomesticviolenceandgenderpdf target_blankevidencea from around the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsroomfactsheetsdetailviolenceagainstwomen target_blankworlda concludes this is simply not the casep
pbut how much does testosterone affect the way men emviewem women one example hooven relies on is that of trans man griffin hansbury and his reaction to t injections during the early days of his transitionp
blockquotepi remember walking up fifth avenue and there was a woman walking in front of me says hansbury and she was wearing this little skirt and this little top and i was looking at her ass and i kept saying to myself dont look at it dont look at it and i kept looking at it and i walked past her and this voice in my head kept saying turn around to look at her breasts it was like being in a pornographic movie house in my mind and i couldnt turn it off i could not turn it off everything i looked at everything i touched turned to sexpblockquote
pwhile even i a hardline social constructionist concede that testosterone can cause strange behaviour and be as potent as oestrogen is for females i strongly suspect there are other explanations for his behaviour surely for example we should put at least emsome emof it down to the privilege and arrogance afforded to men including trans menp
pafter all hansbury is still living in a world where male entitlement and lack of punishment can lead to the dehumanising and oversexualisation of women hansburys testosteroneinduced journey from his previous life as a selfdescribed butch dyke who used to perform poetry about street harassment cannot be blamed on t alonep
pas hooven observes to bring about changes in male behaviour it is not necessary to depress testosterone changes in attitudes and culture can do that all by themselves she is right even if the likes of oliver reed may suggest otherwisep
a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolenceappcommentsview 16 commentsa |
61202d3457de7a37c0e100c6 | *Against White Feminism* | blockquotepin emzero dark thirtyem and the truish story behind it american feminism once a movement that existed in opposition to the state as a critique of its institutions and mores was recast as one that served the states interests through any means imaginable this identification with state interests and the idea of going out to conquer the world with the same mindset of subjugation and domination possessed by white men seems to have become a warped feminist goal put another way white women wanted parity with white men any at any cost including by avidly taking on the domination of black and brown peoplepblockquote
pthat is from the new and noteworthy a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomagainstwhitefeminismnotesdisruptionebookdpb08l6x1ytmrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsagainstwhitefeminismqid1629422492sr81 target_blankagainst white feminism notes on disruptiona by rafia zakaria or how about thisp
blockquotepsecurofeminism thus bound white american feminism to the neoimperial and neoliberal project of nationbuilding around the world one that harvard professor niall ferguson had articulated in his history of angloglobalization proposing that young americans should be taught to go overseas and transform other nations in their own image much as britain had done caught in its fevers american feminists did not question loudly enough the wisdom of exporting feminism through bombs and dronespblockquote
porp
blockquotepwhite feminists in the colonial era were all about spreading their civilized ways but neocolonial white feminists want to illustrate their courage and compassion often while providing moral subsidy for cruelties inflicted in feminisms name times may have changed but the commitment of whiteness to extracting value wherever it can and dominating the narrative to frame this extraction as benevolence persistspblockquote
precommended sort of and here is a relnoopener hrefhttpslithubcomhowthewaronterrorbecameamericasfirstfeministwar target_blankthe author with more detail on securofeminismap
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61202d5b57de7a37c0e100cd | The Most Impressive AI Demo I Have Ever Seen | pthis is jawdropping it starts slow but watch the whole thing i dont think i would have been more amazed had i witnessed the first flight of the wright brothersp
piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedsguccjhtmgyversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep
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61202d7957de7a37c0e100d2 | U.S.A. fact of the day | blockquotepaccording to one recent measure ninetythree of the top one hundred american television programs watched live across a single year have been sports related more people watched the super bowl than the oscars emmys grammys golden globes and tonys emcombinedempblockquote
pit is for this reason that i find it puzzling when some people simply are not interested in sports at all i find the sports are just stupid attitude defensible though it is not my view but that would in turn seem to make sports all the more interestingp
pthat is from jonah lehrers a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommysteryseductionstrategyjonahlehrerebookdpb08ldv4rbrrefsr_1_1dchild1keywordsjonahlehrerqid1629415076sr81 target_blankmystery a seduction a strategy a solutiona just published by simon and schusterp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108usafactoftheday9htmlusa fact of the daya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61202d7c57de7a37c0e100d3 | They had better hurry up and distribute those AstraZeneca doses | blockquotepmovement data from last weekend show melburnians engaging in what experts have called thousands of small transgressions with the potential to drive covid19 infections higher as the effect of 200 days of lockdown takes an emotional tollp
pgoogle mobility data compiled by ithe age ireveals that across the state last friday and saturday people were moving more than at any time since midjuly last year when complacency prompted premier daniel andrews to plunge the state into stagefour lockdown and mandatory maskwearingp
plast weekend saw a spate of breaches a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriavictoriarecords25newcaseslessthanhalfisolatingwhileinfectious20210815p58it4html datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankincluding an organised takeaway pub crawl in richmonda and an a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamedicalprofessionalsamongguestsatillegalengagementparty20210816p58j4chtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankengagement party in caulfield northa attended by 69 guests the couple involved in the illegal party have received 5400 fines two of their parents were also fined and other guests are being interviewedp
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psome metropolitan municipalities including glen eira and bayside recorded their highest lockdown movement levels last week ahead of a number of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwsmhcomaulifestylehealthandwellnessmelbournesuburboncovid19alertassexworkertestspositive20210818p58jychtml datatrackrelatedarticleinarticlelink target_blankmystery cases appearing in st kildaap
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blockquotepprofessor mike toole from melbournes burnet institute who lives in a mobility hotspot in the inner south said he was shocked to witness large groups of people gathering in parks at the weekendpblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheagecomaunationalvictoriamovementlevelsinvictoriareachhighestinlockdown20210819p58k5thtml target_blankthe full articlea via rich dewey and the sydney lockdown is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbbccomnewsworldaustralia58277503 target_blanknow extended until the end of septembera with masks mandated for outside as well elsewherep
blockquotepwalmart target and lowes by contrast all lifted sales forecasts this week after beating expectations for the three months to the end of july while demand for toilet paper and cleaning supplies has cooled after 2020s pantry hoarding the appetite for other products was broadbased party supplies apparel and travel gear flew off walmarts shelves at home depot an early cache of halloween decorations sold out almost immediately swimsuits and childrens clothing were similarly popular at target and in another sign of confidence more customers returned to walmart and target store aisles after a year of browsing onlinepblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent4c92cae402104c769d95507e4c1e8884 target_blankthe associated ft articlea which set of values do you prefer which do most people preferp
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61202d9557de7a37c0e100d7 | How sad that our regulatory state is still failing us | div
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p dataeltextwhen pfizer representatives met with senior us government health officials on july 12 they laid out why they thought a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210817boostershotsbidenadministrationitidlk_inline_manual_2 target_blankbooster shotsa would soon be necessary in the united states data from israel showed the vaccines effectiveness waned over time especially in older and immunocompromised peoplep
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p dataeltextbut officials from the centers for disease control and prevention disagreed saying their own data showed something quite different according to four people with direct knowledge of the meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymityp
p dataeltextother senior health officials in the meeting wereb bstunned why hadnt the cdc looped other government officials on the data could the agency share it at least with the food and drug administration which was responsible for deciding whether booster shots were necessary but cdc officials demurred saying they planned to publish it soonp
p dataeltextthat episode say senior administration officials and outside experts illustrates the growing frustration with the cdcs slow and siloed approach to sharing data which prevented officials across the government from getting realtime information about how the delta variant was bearing down on the united states and behaving with greater ferocity than earlier variants an information gap they say stymied the responsep
p dataeltextits not acceptable how long it takes for this data to be made available said a senior cdc official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal mattersb bits done in a very academic way cross every t and dot every i and unfortunately we dont have that luxury in a global pandemic theres going to be a need to have a significant cultural shift in the agencyp
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p dataeltexthere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomhealth20210818cdcdatadelaydeltavariant target_blankthe full washington post storya by yasmeen abutaleb and lena h sunp
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61217f15d1adae9750a0737f | The economics of Taliban finance | blockquotepan example of islamist governance can be found on the stretch of road from kabul to the mile 78 border crossing in southwest farah province that borders iranp
pthe road has more than 25 government checkpoints and a fee is charged at multiple points on the journey by contrast the taliban who police the same road have far fewer checkpoints and give a receipt so only a single payment is necessaryp
pibraheem bahiss an afghanistan consultant at international crisis group said the taliban sought to portray themselves as better administrators increasingly they began coopting government infrastructure to offer [improved] service deliveries said bahiss explaining that the taliban in some areas ensured that teachers and nurses showed up to workp
pin recent years the taliban has widened its tax base from centuriesold taxes of oshr a onetenth tithe of harvest produce and zakat a religious tax of 25 per cent of disposable income for the poor although collection is often lowerp
pin nimroz province levies on transit goods such as vehicles and cigarettes formed 80 per cent of taliban revenues odi research concludedp
pillegal mining and taxes on imported fuel are further sources of funds taliban earnings on fuel imported from iran were as high as 30m last year according to the alcis consultancypblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwftcomcontent25b489672d8c4acd8699e0cbdf164cb8 target_blankthe full ft storya you will note that the bandits side of the taliban are able to raise this revenue in part because afghanistan suffers from the misfortune of being a landlocked country with sea routes as a possible alternatives to goods and services such fiscal systems would be harder to pull off for both the taliban and the previous government i might add landlocked countries often have it tough by the way much of the rest of the article considers drugs as a revenue sourcep
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theeconomicsoftalibanfinancehtmlthe economics of taliban financea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61217f24d1adae9750a07383 | Covid markets in everything, certified air ambulance regulatory arbitrage edition | div
blockquotepwe werent sure what was going to happen if they were going to separate us or put us in a hospital said mcelroy i didnt know if i was going to need a respiratorp
pnone of that happened within 72 hours the couple was on a learjet back to arizonapblockquote
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blockquotepbefore they left underwood purchased memberships with a relnoopener hrefhttpscovacglobalcom target_blankcovac globala a medical evacuation company launched by the crisis response firm hri in the spring of 2020 it meant the couple didnt pay a dime for their repatriation said mcelroyp
pcommercial airlines and private jets cant fly travelers with covid19 home but certified air ambulances staffed with medical teams canp
pwhile some companies evacuate travelers who require hospitalization covac global retrieves travelers who test positive for covid19 and have one selfreported symptom about 85 of evacuees are returned home while the rest need hospital attention said ceo ross thompsonp
pwhen cnbc a hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210401howtoflyhomeifyoutestpositiveforcovidhtmlfirst spoke with the company in marcha it was performing about two to three medical evacuations every month now that number has climbed to about 12 to 20pblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210820whattogethomeifitestpositiveforcovidwhiletravelinghtml target_blankthe full storya via shaffin shariffp
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61217f26d1adae9750a07384 | What is going on with productivity? (from my email) | blockquotepvarious web sources but none of this seems controversialp
p1 us gdp is now higher in fact a fair bit higher then when the pandemic beganp
p2 us labor force participation is about 15 lower than when the pandemic beganp
pwas there really slack to the tune of a few million people in jan of 2020p
phas inflation really changed enough to make the gdp numbers misleadingp
phas total factor productivity improved that much in that time under those stressesp
por is this all a sign that the structure of the economy is more stratified than we think that there are millions of people in moreorless filler jobs who can be cast out and the economy just keeps on running along yes there are all sorts of reports of labor shortages and all manner of supply chain hiccups which seem to often be associated with off shoring but general activity is still high or is it are the numbers reporting vapor gdp or are the inflation adjustments really out of whack so real gdp is not what we think it ispblockquote
pthat is all from bryan willmanp
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6122d2907b6607035110e0e8 | The problem with fitting third doses into a regulatory structure | pthat is a key theme of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20210822firstcovidimmobilizedusnowgovernmentsarecmpid3dsocialflowtwitterviewutm_contentviewutm_campaignsocialfloworganicutm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwittersrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna here is one excerptp
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pin the us president joe bidens administration is now pushing third booster shots for people who already have been vaccinated that might be a good idea but it too creates additional uncertainty for travel and migration and for social interaction more broadly if three doses are so important should people be allowed to travel or for that matter interact indoors with only two doses the bar is raised yet againp
pof course the issues do not end with the third dose if the efficacy of the second dose declines significantly in less than a year might the same happen with the third dose how long before four doses are necessary or maybe five or what if yet another significant covid variant comes along and only some people have a booster dose against that strain what then counts as being sufficiently vaccinatedp
pmany americans a relnofollow noopener hrefhttpspbstwimgcommediae9f9vyjwyaa1fhhjpg target_blankseem to be keena to get their third dose but by the nature of counting that number is fewer than the number willing to get two doses furthermore many people might just tire of the stress of dealing with an ongoing stream of obligatory booster shots and stop at one or twop
pthe sad reality is that the twodose standard may not last very long whether abroad or domestically the same is true of the even weaker onedose standard with johnson amp johnson and astrazeneca vaccine mandates will become harder to define and enforce will be less transparent and will probably be less popularp
pif you tell people that three doses are needed for safety but two doses are enough to get you into a concert or government building how are they supposed to sort out the mixed messages it is not obvious that enough people will get the third dose in a timely manner to make that a workable standard for vaccine passportsp
padd to that the a relnofollow noopener hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108thefdaandcdcstandardsonthejjvaccineandtheimmunocompromisedareunintelligiblehtml target_blankproblemsa with the johnson amp johnson vaccine which originally the government urged people to get now those people are not being given comparable chances to obtain boosters in fact they are not yet being given specific guidance at all are they orphaned out of any new vaccine passport system or will supposedly dangerous exceptions be made for them or do they just have to start all overp
pthe big international winner from all this is likely to be mexico which has remained an open country and is not relying on vaccine passports in general i do not admire mexicos lackadaisical covid response but the country may end up in a relatively favorable position most of all when it comes to tourism and international business meetingsp
pas for the us and europe the temptation to escalate required safety measures is understandable but the previous vaccine standards were largely workable ones if they are made tougher they might break down altogetherp
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6122d2bd7b6607035110e0eb | The Afghani dollar | pa relattachment wpatt81773 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlzafghaniimg sizesmaxwidth 1600px 100vw 1600px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg alt width1600 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghanijpg 1600w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani300x91jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1024x311jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani768x233jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zafghani1536x467jpg 1536w classwpimage81773 height486ahere is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwxecomcurrencyconverterconvertamount1fromafntousd target_blankthe sourcea the surprises are to me how early the plunge came how in percentage terms it appears manageable 0013 to 00124 is noticeable but not earthshattering and the rebound at the very end caveat emptor of course and almost certainly these markets have a low level of liquidity and possibly are manipulated as wellp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108theafghanidollarhtmlthe afghani dollara appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
6122d2bd7b6607035110e0ec | Ashish Kulkarni interviews me | piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedzyfxi4frqjwversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep
pabout half is about india including on how to construct an ideal india trip and also on the legacy of british colonialism the other half is his very careful memoryrich questions about earlier strongmrstrong posts i was happy with how it turned outp
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6122d2c07b6607035110e0ed | Quillette's Best on Critical Social Justice | figureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wilfridlaurierpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figureimg altquillettes best on critical social justice srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108criticalsocialjusticepngpstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20171121wilfridlauriercreepcriticaltheorywilfrid laurier and the creep of critical theorya stronguri harrisbrbrwere moving away from the multidimensional bottomup approach to discourse that has characterised and helped shape western societies and towards a singular topdown approach that more resembles how western societies looked before the enlightenmentpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108blankbookpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180415stiflinguniformityliterarytheorystrongthe stifling uniformity of literary theorystronga strongstrong neema parvinippeither you are with the oppressed and therefore on the side of the angels or you are implicitly supporting the side of the oppressors and a damnable and unrepentant sinnerpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108ffm_adornogedenktafeljpeg altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height749figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190103thefrankfurtschoolandpostmodernphilosophystrongthe frankfurt school and postmodern philosophystronga strongstrong matt mcmanusppwhile they were often reticent to simply accept full irrationalism in all its nihilistic connotations postmodern philosophers were often willing to flirt with deep skepticism and even mysticism as a default philosophical outlookpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108deadendpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadenda hrefhttpsquillettecom20190923postmodernismsdeadendstrongpostmodernisms dead endstronga a maximilian wernerppaccording to this culturally relative view of the world then truth is arbitrary and exclusive rather than evidentiary and shared the consequence is divisivenesspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108statuepng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20200305acloserlookatwhitefragilitytheorystronga closer look at white fragility theorystronga strongstrong valerie taricoppwhite fragility theory simultaneously rejects racial essentialism and embraces it perhaps this paradox reflects where many americans are in the long arc of struggle toward equity and justicepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108whitefragilitypng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180824theproblemwithwhitefragilitytheorystrongthe problem with white fragility theorystronga strongstrong jonathan churchppit appears that diangelo and her disciples have become so focused on white illiteracy in the conversation about race that they are prepared to sacrifice the scientific method on the altar of fighting institutional racismpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108kaufmannpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepstronga hrefhttpsquillettecom20181027whiteprivilegeisrealbutwellmeaningwhiteliberalsarehelpingtoperpetuateitwhite privilege is real but wellmeaning white liberals are helping to perpetuate ita strong eric kaufmannpprather than imagining a world of conflicting groups in which whites oppress nonwhites we should think of white privilege as a complex structure which all people of all races and ethnicities bear some responsibility forpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108peggymcintoshpng altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height812figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20180829unpackingpeggymcintoshsknapsackstrongunpacking peggy mcintoshs knapsackstronga strongstrong william rayppevery time identity politics has been used by any faction in human history for any reason violence eventually followspfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp1png altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20190822whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart1strongwhy white privilege is wrongpart 1stronga strongstrong vincent harinam and rob hendersonppclearly differences exist between ethnic groups in the us but as weve shown white privilege does not explain them in fact white privilege condenses the complexities of group outcomes into a simple narrative that does not help anyonepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202108wp2jpeg altquillettes best on critical social justice width1200 height800figurepa hrefhttpsquillettecom20191016whywhiteprivilegeiswrongpart2strongwhy white privilege is wrongpart 2stronga strongstrong vincent harinam and rob hendersonppwhite privilege gives you a simple answer and a clear enemy but if we truly want to understand and mitigate group differences then taking a closer look at the data is a far better approachp |
61242516ec6d177dabef069a | Fortschritt | blockquote
p datatestidparagraph0germany has decided to stop using the coronavirus infection rate as its yardstick for deciding if restrictions should be in force to contain the spread of the virus chancellor angela merkel said on mondayp
p datatestidparagraph1the sevenday incidence rate was a key measure in determining whether restrictions could be imposed or lifted with infection thresholds of 35 50 and 100 per 100000 people triggering the opening or closure of different parts of societyp
p datatestidparagraph2but as the number of people who are fully vaccinated rises calls have grown for the incidence rate to be dropped as a measure to determine whether lockdowns are necessaryp
p datatestidparagraph3we decided today that we no longer need comprehensive protective measures when the number of cases or incidence is 50 because a large proportion of the people are vaccinated merkel saidp
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p datatestidparagraph3when will california do the same here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldeuropegermandropincidencelevelskeycovidyardsticksources20210823 target_blankthe full storyap
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61242539ec6d177dabef069d | The Rise (and Fall) of the Modern Bank of England | pthe notion of an essentially contestable concept means an issue which by its very nature can never be definitively settled no matter how much brilliance is expended on it and about which no logic or evidence can ever force disputing parties to agree thus they are in the words of stuart hampshire permanently and essentially subject to revision and question in short the debate never ends how many such essentially contestable propositions have we seen macroeconomics like politics and philosophy is full of themp
pin macroeconomics one essentially contestable issue is what the ideal nature and functions of a central bank should be given the immense financial and political importance of central banks in a world that runs entirely on the fiat currencies they create and inflate these are critical questions but no answer though it may be in fashion for a time turns out to be permanent crises occur theories run up against surprising reality the debates resume and central bank evolution has no end no ideal final statep
pharold james ema relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20 target_blankmaking a modern central bankaspan [1]spanem is a very instructive book in this respect it relates in great and often exhausting detail the lengthy debates concerning the functions and organization of that iconic central bank the bank of england in the midst of the financial events of the years 19792003 with a brief but essential update at the end on what has happened since then the bank of england seemed to be engaged in a constant quest to determine what its real function might be james observes the quest involved lots of brilliant minds and colorful personalities and they remind us that it is easier to be brilliant than right when dealing with the economic and financial futurep
pin the longer historical background of these debates and important to their psychology is that the bank as the book usually refers to it had had a great run as the dominant central bank in the world under the gold standard it had impressive traditions going back to its founding in 1694 then in the wake of the financial destruction as well as all the other destruction of the first world war the role of the worlds leading central bank was taken over by the federal reserve representing the newly dominant us dollarp
pstill the bank of england punches internationally above its weight james writes not because of the strength of the british economy but because [quoting paul krugman] of its intellectual adventurousness this intellectual flair is well displayed in the book moreover in its institutional history the bank calls on long experience in the grand sweep of economic and financial evolution in 1979 it was approaching its 300th anniversary while the fed was less than 70 years oldp
pat that point the bank of england was facing severe stress the 1970s were years of crisis everywhere but especially in the uk there was in particular the collapse of the fixed exchange rate world of bretton woods which was the final disappearance of the gold standard over which the bank had once presided there were the two oil price shocks generating substantial instability the global great inflation was roaring the british pound sterling kept getting weakerp
paccording to james the policy discussions of the uk in 1976 were dramatic and humiliating they turned into an indictment of a britain that had failed because of the foreign exchange crisis the governor of the bank of england and the chancellor of the exchequer could not make their scheduled journeys to the imf [international monetary fund] annual meetings the prime humiliation was that britain once a vast imperial and financial power had been forced to ask the imf for a loan which imposed heavy cuts in the government budget goodbye great britain said a 1975 emwall street journalem headlinep
pof course there were different ideas about what to do there was a struggle between differing parts of the british economic establishment a clash [between] treasury and bank the discussions debates and political dialectic between the treasury and the bank are a central theme of the entire book can a central bank be truly independent or is it instead just a subsidiary and a servant of the treasury or is it something in betweenperhaps independent within the government as the federal reserve used to incoherently but diplomatically say for james the relationship between treasury and bank remained permanently haunted by potential or actual controversyp
palways in the background in the bank of england case james points out is this provision of the bank of england act of 1946p
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe treasury may from time to time give such directions to the bank as after consultation with the governor of the bank they think necessary in the public interestpblockquote
pthats pretty clear there is certainly nothing in the federal reserve act about giving directions in that fashion although the us treasury department and the white house always do want to give directions to the fed and sometimes succeed as donald kettl observed in emleadership at the fedem the feds power continues to rest on its political support and james shows how true this is of the bank of englandp
pthe bank of england act of 1998 is more nuanced but does not change who the senior partner isp
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe objectives of the bank of england shall bea to maintain price stability and b subject to that to support the economic policy of her majestys governmentpblockquote
pit is the treasury her majestys government that gets to determine what price stabilitya relnoopener target_blankathat is the inflation targeta relnoopener target_blanka will be not the bank the bank thus has operational independence but not target independence in contrast the federal reserve has had the remarkable hubris to assert it can set an inflation target define price stability by itself in most other countries it is given by or negotiated with the governmentp
figure classwpblockpullquote
blockquotepthroughout these challenging events the roles of the bank of england as promoter of systemic financial stability provider of financing to combat the panics and financial instability coordinator and regulator of the banking firms and creator of moral hazard by bailouts are prominentall in addition to its key monetary inflationcontrolling rolepblockquote
figure
pas the book proceeds the bank moves from 1970s humiliation to what appears to be a successful modern central bank by 2003 although that afterwards turns out to be ephemeral along the way were many crises all interestingly related for those with a taste for financial historyp
pthere was another foreign exchange crisis involving more humiliation on black wednesdayseptember 16 1992the pound sank in spite of very costly and ultimately futile support by the bank of england breaking the european exchange rate mechanism of fixed parities and famously making giant profits for george soros and other speculators the experiment in european cooperation had ended in failure bringing a progressive distancing of the uk from europe and was an earlier version of brexit james suggestsp
pthere were multiple credit and banking crises and bailouts these included a deep real estate bust when house prices fell from 1989 to 1993 and many banks fell along with them a larger one national home loans had twofifths of its loan book over two months in arrears there was the scandalous collapse of bcci the bank of credit and commerce international popularly dubbed the bank of crooks and cocaine international in 1991 it looked as if there might be a panic and a run on the midland bank one of the largest banks the bank of england considered midland indeed too big to failp
pthe famous firm of barings londons oldest merchant bank collapsed in 1995 from the notorious losses of a rogue trader in asia barings had also failed in 1890 from argentine entanglements when it was rescued by the bank of england this time it got sold to a dutch bank for one pound the 1995 barings crisis involved a particularly british problem the worry that the queen had very nearly lost some of her fundsp
pthroughout these challenging events the roles of the bank of england as promoter of systemic financial stability provider of financing to combat the panics and financial instability coordinator and regulator of the banking firms and creator of moral hazard by bailouts are prominentall in addition to its key monetary inflationcontrolling role how many functions should the bank of england have this kept being debatedp
pin the 1990s the bank began to specify essential or core purposes in particular initially three currency or price stability financial stability and the promotion of the uk financial service sector james points out however the bank still had fourteen highlevel strategic objectives twentyseven area strategic aims fortynine business objectives and fiftyfive management objectivesp
pand then came the big redesign complex intensely political intellectually provocative negotiations among strong personalities in the government and the bank related in enjoyable journalistic detail led to the 1998 bank of england act this act sharply focused the bank on the core function of maintaining price stability which as defined turned out to be an inflation target the bank would get to choose the methods to achieve this though it would be given the target the act also took financial supervision away from the bank and moved it all to a new consolidated regulator the financial services authority fsap
pthe result was an independent modern central bank in line with the international central banking theories and fashion of the new 21st century as james explains a modern central bank has a much narrower and more limited set of tasks or functions than the often historic institution from which it developed the objective is the provision of monetary stability nothing more and nothing less for the bank of england by the early 2000s that task looked like it had been achieved with stunning successp
pit takes the book 450 scholarly pages to reach this outcome the remaining 11 pages relate how it didnt work the modern central bank turned out to be far from the end of central banking history or the end of the related debatesp
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe monetary and financial governance which appeared to have been functioning so smoothly and satisfactorily was severely tested after 20072008pblockquote
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe crisis required central banks to multitask feverishlypblockquote
blockquote classwpblockquotepa new wave of institutional upheaval set inpblockquote
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe 2012 financial services act abolished the fsapblockquote
blockquote classwpblockquotepby 2017 something that looked rather more like the old bank was being recreatedpblockquote
blockquote classwpblockquotepthe old theme of the bank as provider or guarantor of financial stability came backpblockquote
pand so in central banking the great evolution and cycling of ideas and of fashions continues the essentially contestable concepts keep being contestedp
divh3endnotesh3ollispanmaking a modern central bankspan httpswwwamazoncommakingmoderncentralbankmacroeconomicdp1108799493taglawliberty20lioldivpthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorg20210823theriseandfallofthemodernbankofenglandthe rise and fall of the modern bank of englanda appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwrstreetorgr streetap
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61242566ec6d177dabef069f | Simple facts about Afghanistan | blockquoteptrade will be a particular source of difficulty the last a hrefhttpswwwimforgenpublicationscrissues20210628islamicrepublicofafghanistanfirstreviewundertheundertheextendedcreditfacility461288imf reporta on the country prior to the collapse of the government counted imports at about 7 billion annually a huge fraction of afghanistans 19 billion gdp imports exceeded exports by about a factor of five while that high level of imports was sustainable under the unusual circumstances of the us presence it wont be sustainable going forwardp
pso on top of its other problems afghanistan will need to balance its trade deficit a deeply painful process that will one way or another reduce the number of imports available to afghan civilians given that its currency reserves have been a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210818businessafghancentralbankhtmlfrozena to prevent the taliban from accessing them it will need to balance its trade deficit quickly without any adjustment periodpblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsfullstackeconomicscomafghanistantradeshocktaliban target_blankmorea via matt yglesias do a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwslowboringcom target_blanksubscribea note that electricity and medical supplies are among the most important afghani importsp
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6124256fec6d177dabef06a5 | Data-Driven Parenting: A Conversation with Emily Oster | pimg sizesmaxwidth 1430px 100vw 1430px srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1430x794jpg width1430 alt srcsethttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzerjpg 1430w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer300x167jpg 300w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer1024x569jpg 1024w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108oster_holzwarthsalzer768x426jpg 768w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height794p
pp
pemhow can better data help parents make better decisions thats the question emily oster has made it her mission to answer oster is a professor of economics at brown university and the author of three books about datadriven parenting the first emexpecting betterem focused on how to make informed decisions during pregnancy the second emcribsheetem tackled the first early years of parenting now her latest book ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankthe family firm a datadriven guide to better decision making in the early school yearsaem focuses on the notoriously tumultuous elementary yearsemp
div classwpblockimagefigurea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks639450thefamilyfirmbyemilyoster target_blankimg alt srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202108ffcover199x300jpeg classwpimage33508afigurediv
pemshe recently joined samuel salzer and aline holzwarth on ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycombehavioraldesignpodcast target_blankthe behavioral design podcasta emto discussem the family firmem below is an excerpt of their conversion which covers why oster feels its so important to bring data and decisionmaking strategies to parenting the reasons the elementary age range is trickier than the younger years and why a family google doc might feel offputting but doesnt have to be a full recording of their conversation a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankcan be found hereaemp
pemheather graci editorial teamemp
div classwpblockspacerdiv
pstrongsamuel salzer to start us off it would be interesting to hear about why you wrote your books on parenting what is it that you hoped they would bring to the discussion what do you hope will be different with these books in the worldstrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong there are two things that im trying to add with the books that i think are missing from some of this discussion one is a kind of translation theres an expert scientific consensus around something but when we express that to people we very rarely try to translate emwhyem we think that but for many people they would like to understand why you came to that conclusionp
blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongwhen we come out with results in science we rarely frame it inside how should you make decisions differently based on thisstrongpblockquote
pthe other thing and this is more salient in the emfamily firmem is bringing in a piece of the idea that when we come out with results in science we rarely frame it inside how should you make decisions differently based on this a lot of the tools im trying to give people are how you can combine decisionmaking with some of these pieces of data to incorporate them in your life rather than just be like okay i dont know what to do with thisp
pstrongsamuel salzer one of the main premises [in emfamily firmem] is that we dont really have a problem with taking an organized systematic approach to decisionmaking at work but we fail to do the same in the context of the home you argue that in some ways we should treat our personal family decisions a little bit more like we treat business decisions why do you think these environments bring out such different decisionmaking behavior from usstrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong i think there are a couple of things one is that this isnt the way were socialized into running our households when you arrive at work they tell you heres the way were doing it but when you arrive in a household we dont have that to begin with theres something deeper which is that when you are at your home with the people that you love there is a temptation to think well because i love these people it should just kind of work i shouldnt have to sit down and have a meeting with my spouse about how were going to organize our life because we love each otherwere just going to make it work togetherp
psome of these tools i talk aboutyou could have shared google docs and you could send each other follow up emailspeople are like who are you married top
pstrongaline holzwarth another economiststrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong yeah another economist but because of the feeling that this is so impersonal people have been reluctant to adopt some of these tools theres a little bit of a shift that could be useful to say hey i can have a happy loving emotionally rich relationship with these people and also use google forms and that may not bring in as much conflict as we think in fact i may be able to have a nicer relationship with this person if im not always resentful about why they arent doing things the way that i said even though i never told them that those things were important to me because we didnt have enough google docsp
blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthere is a temptation to think well because i love these people it should just kind of work i shouldnt have to sit down and have a meeting with my spousestrongstrongstrongpblockquote
pstrongsamuel salzer i have two friends one of them is a behavioral scientist as well they got into conflict based on him sending a calendly link for them to catch up shes like who am i to you its not supposed to be this way between friends have you come across similar kinds of reactionsstrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong people do have this reaction i think its one thing with your friends its even a further step with your spouse i will explain to people that when jesse and i are trying to work through something frequently we will have a conversation about it and then he will send a followup email in our conversation we agreed on the following bullet points let me know if im missing anything love jessep
pi explain to other people and theyre at first like what is that but then you say well why is that valuable later if theres something that ive missed in the conversation i can be like oh hey that isnt how i remember that i thought we said this then its not that i do something different and later you yell at me or i yell at you it generates a common efficiency knowledge that lets us move forward in making better decisions in these spaces sometimes when i explain that to people they reflect a little bit like actually that doesnt sound as terrible as i thought i did when you first said itp
pstrongaline holzwarthstrong strongin the book you present a framework of the four fs for helping with some of the mediumsized decisions could you give us the twosentence version of the four fs framing the question factfinding coming up with a final decision and then following upstrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong the idea is to give people a way to think about these mediumsized decisions and to structure their decisionmaking decisions like thiswhat school should we pick or even smaller things should we do this activitytend to take over peoples brains they take all the space but you never find the moments to really focus on them and that is not a good way to make decisions the idea here is that for these decisions you really do need some focus time but you also dont need emallem the timep
pstrongsamuel salzer im curious which one of these [four steps] have you noticed that people find the least intuitive which one do people struggle with moststrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong people have a very hard time saying what their alternatives are its very easy for us to say should i do this or not its much harder to say should i do this or that after you have made a decision you should schedule a time to think about whether it was the right decision and no one ever does that p
blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongpeople have a very hard time saying what their alternatives are its very easy for us to say should i do this or not its much harder to say should i do this or thatstrongpblockquote
pstrongaline holzwarth the factfinding step incorporates other personal criteria that people bring to the table as well some of the things you cover are whats your budget how much time do you have what are the logistics involved do you have to drive to six different places and you cant be in more than one at the same timestrongp
pstrongwhat are your thoughts on this combined approach in general this sort of meshing together of data and preference do you think that pulling these two together will help people make better decisionsstrongp
pstrongemily osterstrong i think that this is the big challengethis part of parenting in emcribsheetem when i write about little kids theres framing around how to think about the effect sizes and the decisions but a lot of it is really that the data tells you enough part of why i was initially very resistant to writing a book about older kids in this age range is that its almost never the case that the data is enough there are so many logistics and family preferences and heterogeneity across kidsp
pthe approach in the book is really to say look there is this data and heres a bunch of stuff in the book where i can tell you something about that data and you can use it but youll then need these other pieces but these other pieces arent something nebulous like how do i feel about it a lot of them are also really practical facts like what does my schedule look like if my kids do these two activities two hours away from each other at the same time on thursday someone will need to drive each of them thats it and thats going to be part of your logistics so the insight in the book is to say its not just the data its this other piece but this other piece isnt something that we cant wrangle its something we can wrangle in the same wayp
pemfor the full conversation including why oster thinks optimism is underrated spellcheck is overrated and why theres so much to love about every stage of parenting check out a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwhabitweeklycompodcastepisodesthefamilyfirmwithemilyoster2 target_blankthe full conversation on the behavioral design podcastaemp
hr classwpblockseparator
pemdisclosure aline holzwarth is a member of the center for advanced hindsight which has provided financial support to embehavioral scientistem as an organizational donor organizational donors do not play a role in the editorial decisions of the magazineemp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgdatadrivenparentingaconversationwithemilyosterfamilyfirmdatadriven parenting a conversation with emily ostera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgbehavioral scientistap |
61242583ec6d177dabef06a7 | The cultural life extension query | pa relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomrebeccamakkaistatus1428925599914016769 target_blankrebecca makkai asksap
blockquotepyou have the power to grant fifty more productive years to an artist of any discipline writer musician painter etc who died too young who do you pickpblockquote
pmy answer was schubert and here is whyp
p1 schubert was just starting to peak but we already have a significant amount of toptier mozart and i take mozart to be the number one contender for the designation schubert composed nine symphonies and number seven still wasnt that great some people think number eight was unfinished number nine is incredible furthermore i believe the nature of his genius would have aged well with the manp
p2 john keats is a reasonable contender but perhaps his extant peak output is sufficient to capture the nature of his geniusp
p3 after the 19821984 period there was decline in the quality of basquiats output his was the genius of a young man and drugs would have interfered with his further achievement in any casep
p4 buddy holly had already peaked and he didnt quite have the skills or ambition to have morphed into something significantly more no one from popular music in that time period didp
p5 frank ramsey is a reasonable choice but i am more excited about schubert we still would have ended up with the same neoclassical economicsp
p6 perhaps kurt cobains genius was that of a young man as well nonetheless he is in my top ten if only for curiosity reasons hank williams and hendrix are competitors toop
p7 carel fabritius anyonep
pa relattachment wpatt81778 hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomattachment_id81778img sizesmaxwidth 982px 100vw 982px srchttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg alt width982 srcsethttpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritiusjpg 1965w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius300x233jpg 300w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1024x796jpg 1024w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius768x597jpg 768w httpmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202108zfabritius1536x1194jpg 1536w classwpimage81778 height764awho else caravaggio egon schiele eva hesse i feel they all have styles that would have aged well unlike say with jim morrison seurat thomas chatterton i can pass on maybe stephen crane or sylvia plath from the side of the writersp
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612576d4c6c9840cea8591e3 | More on Australia, from an MR reader | pa random observation in four sentencesp
ol
lii continue to see huge numbers of australians eg politicians like dan andrews the victorian premier and also huge numbers of random people on my facebook say if we dont continue to lockdown the health system will be overwhelmed we have no choiceli
limost of the atrisk population in australia has already been vaccinated with at least one dose which reduces hospitalisationmortality risk by something like 70 or perhaps even better in practice the smh today reports 94 people in icu 83 unvaccinated 11 have one dose and 50 of adults have 1 dose and obviously are very negatively selected on ageli
lithe us never saw widespread overwhelming of the hospital system lots of media reports of hospitals in x about to hit capacity but it to date has always been one of those just wait two weeks thingsli
lipeople in australia widely believe the quality of the us hospitalhealthcare system is substantially inferior to the single payer hospitalhealthcare system in australiali
ol
pit would seem extremely difficult for these four things to mutually coexistp
pstrongtc againstrong here is a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomcharlieemmaukstatus1429471216260235266s21 target_blanka short video from australiaa how about some astrazeneca and a bit of testing regime instead a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomemmavitzstatus1429965937772429314photo1 target_blankgg is righta that the video resembles a bad dystopian science fiction movie from past decades you will note that some segments of the american intelligentsia are so invested in criticizing the us red state approach and so warm toward collectivist mandates that they wont raise a peep about what is going on herep
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108moreonaustraliafromanmrreaderhtmlmore on australia from an mr readera appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
6125771dc6c9840cea8591e6 | Thailand and The WHO on Fractional Dosing | pthailand will a hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldasiapacificthailandexploreinjectingcoronavirusvaccinesunderskin20210819study fractional dosingap
blockquote
p datatestidparagraph0thailand is studying the possibility of injecting coronavirus vaccines under the skin to try to stretch its limited supply a health official said on thursday as the country races to inoculate the public faster amid a worsening epidemicp
p datatestidparagraph1our previous experience shows that intradermal injections uses 25 of a muscular injection but triggers the same level of immunity head of the medical science department supakit sirilak told reportersp
blockquote
pi am also pleased that the whos sage has issued an a hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementondosesparingstrategiesforcovid19vaccinesfractionatedvaccinedosesinterim statement on fractional dosesap
blockquotepwho with support of the strategic advisory group of experts sage on immunization and its covid19 vaccines working group is reviewing the role of fractionating doses as a dosesparing strategy in light of global vaccine supply constraints sage is continuously reviewing the literature and has reached out to vaccine manufacturers and the research community for available informationp
pwhile sage acknowledges the potential public health benefits of dosesparing strategies to increase vaccine supply and accelerate populationlevel vaccination coverage and possibly also a reduction in reactogenicity sage considers there is currently insufficient evidence to recommend the use of fractional doses any use of a fractional dose at this point in time constitutes an offlabel use of the vaccine sage encourages research in the area with a particular emphasis on research into using fractionated doses as potential boosters and fractional doses in children and adolescents programmatic and operational considerations should be considered from the startpblockquote
pthe statement is reasonable but could have used some costbenefit analysis given shortages id push for a challenge trial or some field trials i agree that if we are to have boosters and to vaccinate young children we should be looking very hard at fractional doses as they are likely to be sufficient for purpose and to preserve as much supply as possible for the rest of the worldp
pby the way i think you can also see some a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108statusquobiashtmlstatus quo biasa in the a hrefhttpswwwwhointnewsitem10082021interimstatementoncovid19vaccineboosterdoseswhos position on boostersa they are not yet enthusiastic about increasing supply with fractional doses but they are very negative about reducing supply with boosters what a miracle that the status quo is just rightp
blockquotepin the context of ongoing global vaccine supply constraints administration of booster doses will exacerbate inequities by driving up demand and consuming scarce supply while priority populations in some countries or subnational settings have not yet received a primary vaccination seriespblockquote
pthe who also doesnt note that if developed countries go for boosters then the case for fractional doses elsewhere to make use of the even more limited supply is likely even strongerp
pheres my paper with coauthors a hrefhttpsbfiuchicagoeduworkingpaper202168on fractional dosesap
phat tip witoldp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108whoonfractionaldosinghtmlthailand and the who on fractional dosinga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61257731c6c9840cea8591e8 | How to tell when you are reading a truly great history book | pwhen it treatment of secondary topics is better than what you can find anywhere else for instance i am reading alexander mikaberidzes a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomnapoleonicwarsglobalhistorydp0199951063refsr_1_2dchild1keywordsnapoleonicwarsqid1629751822sr82 target_blankthe napoleonic wars a global historya just in the span of a few pages his treatment of dessalines and his plan to rule haiti is excellent then his discussion of the french motivations for allowing the louisiana purchase is amazing yet a page later his take on the evolution of the swiss confederation while offered only in passing is more instructive than ive found in books written solely on switzerlandp
pthis is in the very top tier of history books i ever have read highly recommendedp
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61257738c6c9840cea8591e9 | A temporary equilibrium only? | blockquotepthe tax policy center estimates that last year nearly 107 million households or about 61 percent owed no income tax or even received tax credits from the government howard gleckman a senior fellow at the tax policy center a hrefhttpswwwtaxpolicycenterorgtaxvoxcovid19pandemicdrovehugetemporaryincreasehouseholdsdidnotpayfederalincometaxnoted last weeka the spike is likely to be temporary however the share of nonpayers will decline to about 102 million or 57 percent this yearp
pn recent prepandemic years the percentage of tax returns with no income tax liability has been closer to 44 percent in tax policy centers figures though it has trended upward over timep
pthe percentage of filers with no income liability has generally increased from where it was nearly 40 years ago the national taxpayers union foundation a hrefhttpswwwntuorgfoundationtaxpagewhodoesntpayincometaxesreporteda in 2018 this trend is indicative of a progressive income tax code under which higherincome earners pay a larger share of taxes while lowincome earners are generally shielded from significant income tax liabilitiespblockquote
phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsreasoncom20210823thepandemichasmostamericanspayingnofederalincometaxesutm_mediumemail target_blankmore from reasona via ray lopez in so many other areas the pandemic has accelerated trends that already were presentp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108atemporaryequilibriumonlyhtmla temporary equilibrium onlya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61257753c6c9840cea8591eb | Why I became trans | ptranssexuals like me never asked to be at the centre of one of the most toxic debates in society we just wanted to transition and get on with our lives but what was once a niche medical condition has become a civil rights issue so big that it now challenges our understanding of what it means to be a emmanem or emwomanemp
ptransgender ideologues tell us that everybody has a gender identity an innate and immutable feeling of maleness and femaleness that determines whether we are women or men or perhaps something else if that conflicts with the sex assigned to you at birth then come join us under the transgender umbrella we will even give you a flag to make sure you feel specialp
pbut what if gender identity is bunkum to the true faithful who dutifully chant transwomen are women even asking the question is tantamount to blasphemyp
divdiv
pthe term gender identity was a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukeconomyenvironmentalaccountsarticleswhatisthedifferencebetweensexandgender20190221definitionsanddifferences target_blankcoined bya robert stoller in 1964 he a relnoopener hrefhttpspsycnetapaorgrecord196601754001 target_blankdescribeda it as a congenital perhaps inherited biological force but evidence is lacking a relnoopener hrefhttpsmediumcomarcdigitalwhatisgenderidentity10ce0da71999 target_blankasa a relnoopener hrefhttpwebmiteduabyrnewww target_blankalex byrnea professor of philosophy at mit has observed if there is some kind of gender identity that is universal in humans and which causes dysphoria when mismatched with sex it remains elusivep
prather like the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbritannicacomscienceethertheoreticalsubstance target_blankluminiferous ethera of the 19th century a hypothetical substance used to explain the transmission of light gender identity was invented rather than discovered but when einstein showed that ether was unnecessary to explain its existence that idea was abandoned presumably then if transsexualism can be explained without a mysterious biological force gender identity can join it in the history booksp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108gettyimages826418482scalede16293873874951e1629467582538300x160jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarh5why did sadiq khans office fire meh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whydidsadiqkhansofficefiremerefinnarspanbyspan joan smithapdivadiv
psince the whole debate rests on the distinction between men and women it makes sense to consider emthe differences between themem in humans adult males tend to be taller while females tend to have wider hips but the crucial difference which defines male and female in emanyem species is the production or potential for production of one of two gametes ova in females and sperm in malesp
phaving fathered three children in the usual way there can be no doubt which gametes i produced i am male and hence i am a manp
pso why am i also transsexual what could have caused psychological distress so severe that i felt i had no choice but to transition at the time nine years ago the urge to change not only my social presentation but also my body was irresistible but can this be explained by differences in psychology rather than a mysterious forcep
pmale and female psychologies are a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0029265 target_blanknot the samea the most obvious difference is sexual orientation according to the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwonsgovukpeoplepopulationandcommunityculturalidentitysexualitydatasetssexualidentityuk target_blankoffice of national statisticsa 934 of men are attracted to women while 939 of women are attracted to men but to attract partners men and women also signal sexually in grooming dress and presentation and they tend to do it differently no doubt some of this will be socially conditioned but that cannot explain our observations of other species peacocks not only possess distinctive plumage they show it offp
pin her bookstrongstrong a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktestosteronestoryhormonedominatesdividesdp1788402928 target_blankemtestosterone the story of the hormone that dominates and divides usemaem emcarole hooven currently the codirector of undergraduate studies in human evolutionary biology at harvard builds a persuasive case that testosterone emin utero emaffects the psychology as well as the physiology of the developing embryo she tells me however that unlike other species what particular [sexual] signals we use are heavily dependent on culturep
plike sexual orientation sexualem semignalling applies differently to the two sexes but it is also overt and pervasive extending far beyond clothes and makeup even the words emmanem and emwomanem evoke their sexual signals when we hear a real man we dont picture an authentic producer of small gametes we think of a man with sexually attractive testosteronedriven male qualities strong and tough and probably not wearing a dressp
pand so sexual signalling is more than mere gender expression while gender is a poorly defined term and rooted in culture sex is the reason our species is here sexual attraction involves two vectors sexual orientation is the sex we are attracted to and sexual signalling is how we make ourselves attractive neither can be disconnected from sex and the biological impetus to reproducep
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages73539617scalede1629313833906300x203jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarh5dont blame testosterone for male violenceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108dontblametestosteroneformaleviolencerefinnarspanbyspan julie bindelapdivadiv
pjust as people with an atypical sexual orientation can be labelled as gay those driven to atypical sexual signalling can be labelled as trans so isnt sexual signalling just gender identity by another name yes and nop
pyes it is an innate quality that is hardwired into us it is not something that we can choose and it can lead to transsexualism if we are driven to signal in the way typical of the other sex rather than our own but no sexual signalling does emnotem supplant biological sex when transgender activists chant transwomen are women they are in effect demanding that gender identity replaces biological sex when we demarcate men and women the deleterious impact of that approach on female people a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticlewarofwordsriskswipingwomenfromourlanguagedjhp2mwjg target_blankbirthing bodiesa according to one female health charity is profoundp
psexual signalling is also an observable reality and it is a starting point to understand emwhyem some people are trans there may be multiple different reasons but i will focus on the group i know most about heterosexual males who transitioned in midlifep
pnot only can our maleness not be wished away we are members of the sex that produces sperm after all i would claim that the reason why this group wants to wear dresses and makeup grow out our hair and develop breasts is linked inextricably to our maleness to quote another transsexual anne a lawrence we are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncouktrappedmensbodiesautogynephilictranssexualismdp1461451817 target_blankmen trapped in mens bodiesa that was the title of lawrences book that contained a series of narratives written by autogynephilic maleto female transsexualsp
pautogynephilia was a term introduced in 1989 by the americancanadian sexologist ray blanchard blanchard told me that autogynephilia denotes a natal males tendency to be sexually aroused by the thought or image of himself as a woman he added in the western hemisphere and englishspeaking commonwealth countries the overwhelming majority of adult natal males presenting with gender dysphoria are of the autogynephilic typep
pits not difficult to conceive why autogynephilia can lead to severe psychological distress in heterosexual men attracted to their own bodies because their sexual and romantic interest is directed inwards a target location error a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomblanchardphdstatus1006180220183904256langen target_blankaccording to blanchard a they respond by sexually signalling to themselves but while their interest is in females they are heterosexual their bodies are male clothing may help to create an illusion of femaleness but for some medical transition may seem to be the only way to square the circlep
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2021082gettyimages1052439366scalede16279151904381300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspansuggested reading spanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarh5how artists lost their courageh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108howartistslosttheircouragerefinnarspanbyspan jess de wahlsapdivadiv
pthis scientific approach to just one form of maletofemale transsexualism is a world away from a metaphysical claim that transwomen are women but the concept of gender identity has been comforting and politically useful for autogynephilic transsexuals in a society that stigmatises unusual male sexuality unsurprisingly blanchards theory provokes a very strong reaction in somep
pit should not however be ignored gender identity has caused significant collateral damage to a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthetimescoukarticleitfeelslikeconversiontherapyforgaychildrensayclinicianspvsckdvq2 target_blankchildrena and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwindependentieentertainmentbooksgirlswhowouldbeboystheriseinteengenderdysphoria39975855html target_blankadolescentsa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesthetransgenderwaronwomen11553640683 target_blankwomens rightsa a relnoopener hrefhttpsbariweisssubstackcompmedschoolsarenowdenyingbiological target_blankbiomedical sciencea and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtelegraphcouknews20200214policecomparedstasigestapojudgerulesinterferedfreedom target_blankwestern political lifea moreover it is as unnecessary as the ether transsexuals and other gender nonconforming people do not need to invent an innate gender identity to understand ourselvesp
pwe just have a need to communicate ourselves sexually signal as other human beings do just in a way more typical of the opposite sex there may be a host of reasons why that happens of which autogynephilia is just one but gender identity explains nothing worse it hinders exploration into the conditions that make us the people we arep
a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108whyibecametransappcommentsview 24 commentsa |
61257753c6c9840cea8591ec | Is this the end of white America? | pfor years the idea of a great replacement that white americans and europeans are purposefully being replaced through immigration has obsessed many on the extreme right its a fringe belief but concerns will doubtless have been exacerbated by a recent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomdcmdva20210812censusdataraceethnicityneighborhoods target_blankheadlinea in the emwashington postem number of white people falls for first timep
pthe article stated that the results of last years census marked the first time the absolute number of people who identify as white alone has shrunk since a census started being taken in 1790 similar refrains rang out across numerous other news outlets a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwaxioscomamericaswhitepopulationexpectedtoshrinkd3d8f07e2121498a8fb8f8073497524bhtml target_blankamericas white population set to shrinka a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlescensusracepopulationredistrictingchanges11628714807 target_blankamericas white population shrank for the first timea a relnoopener hrefhttpsslatecomnewsandpolitics2021082020censusshrinkingcountiesvotedtrumphtml target_blankvast stretches of america are shrinking almost all of them voted for trumpap
divdiv
pthere was jubilation among the left michael moore called the announcement a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercommmflintstatus1426028604723445762s20 target_blankthe best day ever in us historya for cultural radicals such as he the census marked the end of white supremacy and the start of a millennium of progressive dominance and racial equity similarly neoconturnednevertrumper jennifer rubin gushed that a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomjrubinbloggerstatus1425899248269266947s20 target_blankthis is fabulous news now we need to prevent minority white ruleap
pmeanwhile on the right tucker carlson while condemning the lefts gloating went on to a relnoopener hrefhttpsvideofoxnewscomv6267862568001spshowclips target_blankclaima without evidence that the opioid crisis in white communities explained the decline likewise the news will only confirm views held by the a relnoopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsthememo567841thememofallinwhitepopulationcouldaddfueltonativistfire target_blankfarrighta whereby white nationalists have warned that white decline is being orchestrated by globalist elites and minorities and which will lead to dire consequences for white people and their childrenp
phowever despite the charged rhetoric doing the rounds the number of people american society considers to be white has almost certainly emincreasedem since 2010 white america is not shrinking and whites are not being racially supplanted its a false narrative with serious political repercussions a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0185389 target_blankstudya after a relnoopener hrefhttpsosfiokmsncdownload target_blankstudya has found that reminding white americans about their impending minority status shifts their policy attitudes in a conservative direction and increases support for rightwing populism so while this announcement may make the cultural left feel good it largely benefits the trumpist rightp
pbut what do the actual findings indicate isnt the census reporting the facts as they stand that the number of white people in the country is declining well its certainly true 51 million fewer nonhispanic americans ticked their race as white alone in 2020 compared to 2010 but to take this number out of context is to paint a misleading picture of social realityp
pany quantitative social science student knows that when you change the wording of a survey question you can alter often substantially the pattern of responses the 2010 census questionnaire offered single tick boxes for white and black the 2020 version was changed so that people were not only asked to tick a box but also prompted to write their ethnic group in a text box below research from pew a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgsocialtrends20210514americansoriginsandconnectionstotheirfamiliesroots target_blankshowsa that around 15 of black and white respondents did not write anything in the text box or they wrote something that doesnt make sense hispanic americans were also told for the first time that hispanic is not a racesupa hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaen19184511asup when asked to define theirs it is likely this prompted people to question their choice of which box to mark opting for a multiple race or other race category instead this would depress the number ticking the white alone boxp
pin addition to the change in census wording the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcambridgeorgcorebookswhiteidentitypolitics5c330931ff4cf246fca043ab14f5c626 target_blankpoliticisation of white identitya in the trump era may also have led liberals to distance themselves from the category the 2010s bore witness to a sharp a hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201932218259865greatawokeningwhiteliberalsracepollingtrump2020risea in cultural progressivism during this decade the share of liberal democratic white citizens saying they felt a relnoopener hrefhttpswwweconomistcomspecialreport20210514thesoulsofwhitefolk target_blankcold towards white peoplea increased by roughly 10p
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202107gettyimages1215364978scalede16272284365731300x177jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarh5what liberals get wrong about raceh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202107whatliberalsgetwrongaboutracerefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv
ptheres also the fact that many a relnoopener hrefhttpsdictionarycambridgeorgdictionaryenglishwasp target_blankwaspa americans such as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwfactcheckorg201810thefactsonelizabethwarrensdnatest target_blankelizabeth warrena have some native american ancestry and some such as a relnoopener hrefhttpsethnicelebscombradpitt target_blankbrad pitta believe they do even when such claims cannot be substantiated similarly since 8 in 10 black americans have white or other racial backgrounds in their family history and 1 in 10 white southerners has a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwvoxcom201412227431391guesswherewhiteamericanshavethemostafricanancestry target_blankafrican ancestrya the scope for expansion in the mixed or other race categories is potentially enormousp
pso did these changes affect what people wrote on the 2020 census much of this depends on three things whether their answers reflect a their own identity b how they think others see them or c some judgement about the preponderance of panethnic origins in their backgroundp
pfigure 1 below shows that the number of americans ticking white alone as their race dropped by 193 million between 2010 and 2020 while the number ticking white alongside some other category increased by 236 million much of this shifting took place within the hispanic population but even among nonhispanics white alone declined by 51 millionp
piframe srchttpsdatawrapperdwcdnnetrnigm2 titlechange in total population by group height545iframep
pat the same time the census recorded a rise of 248 million in the two or more races group and a jump of 281 million in some other race the increase of 36 million in the population of those with mixed american indian and alaska native and other racial background is also noteworthy given that this group numbered just 23 million in the 2010 census hardly any of this shift can be explained by aboriginal birth or death ratesp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105fireboy1300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarh5israels population time bombh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105israelspopulationtimebombrefinnarspanbyspan eric kaufmannapdivadiv
pindeed its striking that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorgfacttank20150611americanindianandwhitebutnotmultiracial target_blankmosta biracial white and native indian americans are effectively considered white and view themselves as such meanwhile the assimilation process means that with each generation a hrefhttpswwwpewresearchorghispanic20171220hispanicidentityfadesacrossgenerationsasimmigrantconnectionsfallawayfewera descendants of hispanic and asian immigrants especially those of mixed background identify with their origins it is therefore difficult to conceive that the number of americans considered white is in declinep
pyet none of this means there is emnothingem happening with the nations ethnic demography the balance between white births and deaths taking into account the small flow of some 200000 white immigrants a year is nearly equal the nonhispanic white population using the old question was essentially a hrefhttpswwwcensusgovnewsroompresskits2020populationestimatesdetailedhtmlflatlininga between 2010 and 2019 white americans have maintained a north european a relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabiesvsimmigrantsmustwereallychoose target_blankfertility patterna with a total fertility rate between 15 and 2 since the seventiesp
pthough relatively high for the developed world this is still below the magic 21 replacement level the unmixed white american population along with white ethnic majorities in the rest of the developed world will start to gradually decline in the decades ahead but the big demographic story of the 2010s wasnt about white americans but the big a relnoopener hrefhttpsifstudiesorgblogbabybustfertilityisdecliningthemostamongminoritywomen target_blankdrop in hispanic fertilitya which is rapidly converging with the more stable white rate so even while the share of unmixed whites will probably dip below 50 by 2050 the share who are considered socially white is likely to be a majority into the foreseeable futurep
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202006gettyimages1184543313300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarh5why the rich are revoltingh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202006whythericharerevoltingrefinnarspanbyspan ed westapdivadiv
peither way to be more informative the us census needs an update social scientists and pundits are interested in peoples subjective racial identity but we also want to know about the balance of objective racial categories the latter shapes peoples decisions about where to live who to marry who to vote for and can affect their life chances one option might be to ask people how others perceive their race in northern ireland peoples growing tendency to state their religion as none or not stated led census takers in 2011 to a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnisragovuksitesnisragovukfilespublicationsbackgroundtothereligionandreligionbroughtupinquestionsinthecensusandtheiranalysisin2001and2011pdf target_blankadd a questiona asking about the religion people were brought up inp
pultimately though until the results of such a question show a real decline in those considered to be quotwhitequot the zeal to foreground the great replacement tells us more about ideological hopes and fears than any emerging social reality one of the few seeking to dispel such illusions is leading american sociologist of ethnicity richard alba however his important book a relnoopener hrefhttpspressprincetonedubookshardcover9780691201634thegreatdemographicillusion target_blankemthe great demographic illusionema failed to garner reviews because it a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwcityjournalorgrichardalbaondemographicchangewallit_nosession1 target_blankdoesnt fita the prevailing narrative instead the media are attracted to demographic stories which heighten white threat perceptions gratifying progressives while increasing support for trumpismp
pso while the definition of white may be blurring at the edges the white american majority isnt going anywherep
div
h6footnotes
ol
li for this survey hispanic origins are not racesquot was the wording alongside the what is your race questionli
ol
a hrefhttpsunherdcom202108isthistheendofwhiteamericaappcommentsview 24 commentsah6div |
6126c8a6fcfe0170ea6bf5e2 | The Delta Variant and Vaccine Protection | divimg sizesmaxwidth 600px 100vw 600px srchttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg width600 alt srcsethttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1jpg 600w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1300x300jpg 300w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1500x500jpg 500w httpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpresswpcontentuploads202106healthcaretriagethumbnail1150x150jpg 150w classwppostimage height600divpspan dirautowhats the deal with covid variants how well do the different covid vaccines protect against them today well tell you about the several variants including the delta variant that is prevalent in the us and well talk about the studies that have looked at vaccine efficacy against these variantsspanp
p p
piframe allowfullscreenallowfullscreen srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedt4vnlxiisey width500 height281iframep
pa hrefhttpstwittercomdrtiff_phddrtiff_phdapthe post a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthedeltavariantandvaccineprotectionthe delta variant and vaccine protectiona first appeared on a hrefhttpstheincidentaleconomistcomwordpressthe incidental economista |
6126c8abfcfe0170ea6bf5e4 | My Conversation with Zeynep Tufekci | phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeszeyneptufekci target_blankthe audio video and transcripta here is part of the summaryp
blockquotepzeynep joined tyler to discuss problems with the media and the scientific establishment what made the lableak hypothesis unacceptable to talk about how her background in sociology was key to getting so many things right about the pandemic the pitfalls of academic contrarianism what max weber understood about public health crises the underrated aspects of kemel mustaphas regime how emgame of thronesem interested her as a sociologist until the final season what americans get wrong about turkey why internetfueled movements like the gezi protests fizzle out whether islamic fundamentalism is on the rise in turkey how shed try to persuade a covid19 vaccine skeptic whether public health authorities should ever lie for the greater good why she thinks america is actually less racist than europe how her background as a programmer affects her work as a sociologist the subject of her next book and morepblockquote
phere is one excerptp
blockquote
pstrongcowen stronga relnoopener hrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500 target_blank datahrefhttpswwwthoughtcocommaxweberrelevancetosociology3026500max webera overrated or underrated as a sociologistp
pstrongtufekci strongunderratedp
pstrongcowen strongwhyp
pstrongtufekci strongpart of the reason hes underrated is because he writes in that very hardtoread early 19thcentury writing but if you read max weber 90 percent of what you want to understand about the current public health crisis is there in his sociology not just him but sociology organizations and how that works hes good at that i would say underrated partly because its very hard to read its like shakespeare you need the modern english version conceptually for more people to read itp
pi would say almost all of sociology is underrated in how dramatically useful it is just ask me any time early on i knew we were going to have a pandemic completely based on sociology of the moment in early january before i knew anything about the virus because they werent telling us but you could just use sociological concepts to put things together max weber is great at most of them and underratedp
pstrongcowen stronga relnoopener hrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtml target_blank datahrefhttpwwwbbccoukhistoryhistoric_figuresataturk_kemalshtmlkemal mustafaa overrated or underratedp
pstrongtufekci strongunderratedp
pstrongcowen strongwhyp
pstrongtufekci strongwhy my grandmother she was 12 or 13 when she was in the mediterranean region central asia but mediterranean region very close to the mediterranean she was born the year the turkish republic had been founded 1923 and she was 13 or so she was just about to be married off but the republic was a little over a decade same age as her they created a national exam to pick talented girls like her the ones that won the exam got taken to istanbul to this elite one of the very few boarding high schools for girlsp
pthe underrated part isnt just that such a mechanism existed the underrated part is that the country changed so much in 13 years that her teacher was able to prevail upon the family to let her go to have a 13yearold be sent off to istanbul completely opposite side of the country to a boarding school for education that kind of flourishing of liberationp
pim not going to deny it was an authoritarian period and minorities like kurds during that period were brutally suppressed i cant make it sound like there was nothing else going on but in terms of creating a republic out of the ashes of a crumbling empire i think its one of the very striking stories of national transformation globally within one generation so underratedp
blockquote
pthere are numerous interesting segments on varied topics to be found throughout the dialogp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myconversationwithzeyneptufekcihtmlmy conversation with zeynep tufekcia appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
6126c8f0fcfe0170ea6bf5e8 | Why Doesn’t the United States Have Test Abundance?! | pwe have vaccine abundance in the united states but not test abundance germany has test abundance tests are easily available at the supermarket or the corner store and they are cheap a hrefhttpstwittercomoverseasdemstatus1429326478903291914five tests for 375 euroa or less than a dollar each billiger in great britain you a hrefhttpswwwgovukordercoronavirusrapidlateralflowtestscan get a 14 pack for freea a hrefhttpshealthcanadacaenrapidteststhe canadiansa are also a hrefhttpswwwnewswirecanewsreleasesgovernmentofcanadamakesrapidantigentestsavailabletomoresmallandmediumsizedorganizationsthroughnewpharmacypartners800078761htmldistributing packs of testsa to small businesses for free to test their employeesp
pin the united states the fda has approved less than a handful of true athome tests and partially as a result they are expensive at 10 to 20 per test ie more than ten times as expensive as in germany germany has approved a hrefhttpsantigentestbfarmdeordsfp1101004793921863454over 50 of these testsa including tests from american firms not approved in the united states the rapid tests are excellent for a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202008infectedversusinfectioushtmlidentifying infectiousnessa and they are an important weapon alongside vaccines for controlling viral spread and making gatherings safe but you cant expect people to use them more than a handful of times at 10 per usep
pwe ought to have testing abundance in the us and not lag behind germany the uk and canada as usual i say if its good enough for the germans a hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncomsreciprocitypharmaceuticalits good enough for meap
pstrongaddendumstrong the excellent michael mina continues to a hrefhttpstwittercommichaelmina_labstatus1428178138807287811s20bang the drumap
pimg draggabletrue srchttpspbstwimgcommediae9x82kgxeamjxbfformatjpgnamelarge altimage width724 height965p
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108testingabundancehtmlwhy doesnt the united states have test abundancea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
6126c923fcfe0170ea6bf5eb | Is the scolding equilibrium shifting, and if so why? | pas the pandemic evolves so is the tendency of people to take moral positions they would not normally endorse most notably many leftwing commentators are becoming moral scolds stressing ideals of individual responsibilityp
pconsider these wordsp
pso its time to stop being diffident and call out destructive behavior for what it is doing so may make some people feel that theyre being looked down on but you know what your feelings dont give you the right to ruin other peoples livesp
pif i had read that paragraph two years ago i might have thought it was a conservative columnist lamenting innercity crime or perhaps complaining about the behavior of homeless people in san francisco but no it is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20210819opinioncovidmasksvaccinemandateshtml target_blankpaul krugman discussinga those who will not get vaccinated or wear masks he calls it the rage of the responsible and it is emblematic of a broader set of current leftwing attitudes most of all toward the red state responses to the pandemicp
pto be clear i agree with krugmans point and i frequently express similar sentiments all the same i wonder about the rules here when exactly are the responsible allowed to express their quiet rage on which issues and on which termsp
pthe alternative to this rage is the language of victimhood for example many on the left tend to portray the homeless as hostages to circumstances largely beyond their control the high cost of housing unjust eviction policies a tattered social welfare state perhaps mental illness or drug addictionp
pthere is some truth in all those hypotheses still when it comes to the homeless am i also allowed to express the quiet rage of the responsible or is only the rhetoric of victimhood allowedp
pthere is no doubt that homeless people suffer very real injustices but it could be argued that allowing oneself to become homeless is a greater abdication of responsibility than refusing to be vaccinated it is also worse for your health and bad for the community as anyone from san francisco can tell youp
pone rejoinder might be that a pandemic is different maybe so but if this were the 1980s during the peak of the hivaids epidemic one could imagine a moral majority advocate expressing sentiments similar to krugmans about gay men who engage in unsafe sex today such a view would be considered uncouth at least in the mainstream media and thats not only because there are now effective treatments against hivaids this kind of scolding has mostly gone out of fashion especially when the recipients have been victims of prior or current social discriminationp
por consider the question of suicide there was a time in america when it was common to view suicide as a violation of christian doctrine now there is largely sympathy for those who have killed themselves is this change for the better maybe but its not clear that this issue has been given serious evidencebased consideration scolding sometimes helps to limit the number of wrong deeds and everyone does it to some degree even when it is sometimes not appropriatep
pthen there are alcohol and drug abuse which have some features of epidemics in that they exhibit social contagion your drunkenness for example on average encourages some of your friends to experiment with the same but scolding alcoholics also is out of fashion even though the social costs of alcohol abuse are extremely high especially when considered cumulatively as a teetotaler i sometimes express my own quiet rage of the responsible and my reaction is mostly considered a strange curiosityp
pit is not only leftwing thinkers who have ended up in strange ideological positions governor ron desantis of florida a conservative republican and one of americas leading rightwing politicians has essentially expanded public healthcare coverage in his state by setting up mobile units to administer monoclonal antibodies to covid19 sufferers im all for that at the same time i notice he continues to oppose medicaid expansion in floridap
pwhat explains the attitudinal shifts we are seeing one possibility is that leftwing thinkers are getting more puritanical and are more comfortable in their new role as scolds including with respect to sex and vaccination and maskwearing that would leave trumpist republicans as the defenders of medical choice and the sexual libertinism of the 1960s and 1970sp
panother possibility not mutually exclusive is that few of us are intellectually consistent and so our scolding is increasingly shaped by affective political polarization the left will scold the practices of trump supporters while the right will scold the woke and views on any particular issue will be adjusted to fit into this broader pattern if an issue is not very partisan such as alcohol abuse or suicide scolding simply will declinep
phere is an article on a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwiredcomstorywoulditbefairtotreatvaccinatedcovidpatientsfirst target_blankthe movement to treat vaccinated patients firsta fine by me but what exactly are the egalitarians supposed to say is meritocracy now allowed to rear its ugly head or do no other social outcomes have anything to do with your merit only this one reallyp
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108scoldhtmlis the scolding equilibrium shifting and if so whya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61281abe03bf0981917649a0 | My emails to Arnold Kling about the correct inflation model | pafter i cited low tenyear securities yields arnold asked for my basic model of inflation here was my first emailp
ul
liprice level dynamics and money supply processes are murky at least in recent timesli
lithe median voter hates inflationli
lithe fed wont let inflation happenli
ul
pis my modelp
pi would add a dose of inflationary pressures really do seem to be distributed pretty unevenlyp
pend of email here was my second email to arnoldp
pi think the fed knows the true model in gross termsbr
i also think there is a good chance the fed will create a recession in limiting inflationp
pbut look at japan the eu even italy its not just the usp
ptemporary inflation pressures all over the place due to covid and postcovid adjustments no fiscal financial crises no longterm inflationary expectations of much note not in the developed nationsp
pthe stock of saved wealth is now quite high relative to debt and deficits especially if you count human capitalp
pso both the basic model and the markets predict no catastrophe and also no runaway inflation and central banks know how to boost the demand for money when neededp
pseigniorage returns from inflation are especially low in the contemporary environment checking another motive for inflation no assignats revenue is in the works herep
pi just dont see what weve got in the toolbox to override all of thatp
pend of email i should note that i agree with summers that inflation is higher than it needs to be that is bad and it is because we overshot on our combined monetaryfiscal responsep
pill also repeat my standard challenge are you short the long bond are you buying those puts im not so convinced if all youve got is im not buying so many equities any morep
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108myemailstoarnoldklingaboutthecorrectinflationmodelhtmlmy emails to arnold kling about the correct inflation modela appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61281b0103bf0981917649a8 | Crypto-Volcano Sentence of the Day | blockquotepthe 40yearold president also wants to lure foreign investors to develop geothermal power from volcanoes to supply the large amounts of electricity needed for mining the cryptocurrencypblockquote
pthis is from the wsjs article on a hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticleselsalvadorgetsreadyforariskybitcoinexperiment11629966845__el salvadors adoption of bitcoinap
phat tip scott lincicomep
pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202108cryptovolcanosentenceofthedayhtmlcryptovolcano sentence of the daya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap |
61281b4003bf0981917649ae | *Smashing the Liquor Machine* | pthe subtitle is ema global history of prohibitionem and the author is mark lawrence schrad i blurbed the book with thisp
blockquotepthe best book on prohibition period it is a revelation on the causes and nature of the prohibition movement and takes a properly international perspective considering colonies and indigenous peoples as well you will never look at prohibition the same way againpblockquote
phighly recommended you can buy it a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomsmashingliquormachinehistoryprohibitiondp0190841575refsr_1_1dchild1keywordssmashingtheliquormachineqid1629914368sr81 target_blankhereap
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61281b7a03bf0981917649b0 | Does Jordan Peterson believe in God? | pjordan peterson is not known for being shy about his opinions yet a hrefhttpswwwthepublicdiscoursecom20180421281the most influential biblical interpreter in the world todaya is very coy about saying whether or not he believes in godp
pi dont like the question peterson always replies when put on the spot acknowledging that he is obsessed with religious matters several millions of people can attest to that having watched his fascinating a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvui_qcd030xw target_blankthe psychological significance of the biblical storiesa youtube series which focuses on the book of genesis but when it comes to gods existence peterson doesnt want to declare his hand why i dont know exactly he replies a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomqandastatus1100000553432637440s20 target_blanki act as if god exists and i am terrified that he mighta some think peterson is being deliberately shiftyp
pas a result of the professors engagement with religion a fulllength study on the question of him and god has been published emjordan peterson god and christianity the search for a meaningful life emin it christopher kaczor and matthew r petrusek a couple of american academics generously acknowledge all that he has done to draw out the psychological insights of biblical narratives while seeking to encourage him over the line into what they think of as fullblown belief both admire peterson but just cant quite get over the fact that he is unwilling publicly at least to make what they take to be the ultimate declaration of faith his faith they say is the sort of thing you might have in the parking lot outside the church as if he is nearly there but not quite you can sense their frustration throughout is acting as if god exists enough to be counted as a believing christian close they think but not close enoughp
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pin the end the difference between acting as if god exists which peterson says he does and believing in god and acting accordingly which peterson says he is not ready to do may seem inconsequential yet the difference between the two is as vast and relevant as the difference between reading a great love story and falling in love yourselfp
pwhat is at stake here though is something more than wanting to sign peterson up as a proper member of team christianity what is at stake is deciphering what we mean by really believing and here even as a priest i am much more in the peterson camp unlike the authors of this book i am really not that bothered by petersons apparently indeterminate statusp
pi remember a terrible moment on the first night at theological college in oxford i had unpacked my trunk ready for three years of training to be a priest i lay on the bed staring up at the ceiling and a terrible thought struck me did i really believe in all this stuff was i now writing the cheques of religious commitment that i didnt have the intellectual recourses to cash in other words was i a fraudp
pafter a quarter of a century as a priest i still dont have a satisfactory answer to this question and after a great deal of soulsearching on the matter i have come to a similar conclusion to peterson theres something wrong with the questionp
pmy conversion to christianity was both instantaneous and drawn out as an atheist philosophy student i discovered a surprising love of the biblical literature and of those existentialist philosophers who took it seriously writers such as dostoevsky and kierkegaard brought it to life for me much as they did for peterson friends would describe christianity as my funny sort of hobby i thought of it as a kind of secular moral philosophy then all of a sudden i came to the realisation that i wasnt on the outside of this system of thought looking in i was on the inside looking out something huge had changed but i was unable to say precisely what it wasp
pi think wittgenstein best describes the nature of my conversion in his emphilosophical investigationsem he has a little illustration below of what is known as a duckrabbitp
pimg sizesmaxwidth 395px 100vw 395px srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png alt width395 srcsethttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein300x263png 300w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein768x674png 768w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgenstein600x527png 600w httpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202108wittgensteinpng 800w classwpimage197819 height346p
phe notes how it is possible to see these lines as the drawing of a rabbit but then suddenly you see them as the drawing of a duck what were ears become the ducks bill the image is not looking right but looking left everything about the image looks different and yet nothing has changed the lines havent movedp
pmy conversion was remarkably similar nothing changed about the world i still thought it contained the same stuff but the way i looked at it had been turned on its head this was no longer a tree but an expression of gods creation the people in my life were no longer fleshy units of individual consciousness but made in the image and likeness of god nothing changed yet everything changed i suspect that being obsessed with religious matters makes this sort of change and you can build your life around it as i havep
pbut hang on an observer might say surely the lines have changed after all you now believe in god so there must be an emadditionalem element to the picture but it doesnt work like that thomas aquinas observed that if you decided to embark upon a crazy impossible project of listing all the things that existed in the world shoes cars clouds stars atoms etc then god wouldnt be on the list because god is not a created object he is the creator itself which is remarkably close to saying that god does not exist however emexistenceem is not the right sort of thing to say about god to talk of his existence is to relegate god to just one more thing about the universe big and powerful admittedly but fundamentally ontologically just one more thing among others and what the great doctors of the church repeatedly say about god is that he just isnt like thatp
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pthe authors of this new book contrast petersons acting as if god exists faith with that of cs lewis for them a representative of the really believing kind of christian for them petersons faith is kind of second bestp
pwhat they dont mention however is the fascinating exchange when the marshwiggle puddleglum is captured by a witch in cs lewiss emthe silver chair emand taken to her underground lair seeking to disabuse puddleglum of the idea that he might survive imprisonment she attempts to convince him that narnia and aslan do not exist it is lewiss take on platos parable of the cavep
ppuddleglum doesnt have half the intellectual resources of the nihilistic witch but he makes a spirited defence that has her infuriated yes he might be a dreamer yet his made up world feels a lot more important that her real worldp
psuppose we have only dreamed or made up all of those things then all i can say is that in that case the madeup things seem a great deal more important than the real onesi am going to stand by the play world im on aslans side even if there isnt any aslan to lead it i am going to live as like a narnian as i can even if there isnt any narniap
pthis might sound like puddleglum doesnt emproperlyem believe something along the lines of i will believe in god even if there isnt any god but in fact as rowan williams put it puddleglum isnt saying it doesnt matter whether its true or not hes saying i have no means of knowing whether this is or isnt truebut i know theres something here that i cannot let go of without letting go of myselfp
pto be fair its not as if the authors of the peterson book think there is no value in this position indeed they include a nifty quote from fr richard john neuhaus that makes another kind of defence of us puddleglums if you would believe he said act as though you believe leaving it to god to know whether you believe for such leaving it to god is faith but whereas they think this is not quite up to scratch i take it that this position is as authentic an expression of faith as one could hope to findp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads201805peterson300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanfurther readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarh5what peterson shares with pelagiush5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom201805jordanpetersonsharespelagiusrefinnarspanbyspan giles fraserapdivadiv
pthats why i think petersons faith is not in any way lacking some extra element that turns it into the real thing aquinas described the authentic religious inquiry as emfides quaerens intellectumem faith seeking understanding in other words it is not understanding that comes first you dont need to have a fully worked out philosophy of god before you can profess any sort of faith the understanding bit is always a work in progressp
pi am perfectly happy to say that i believe in god not because i totally know what that means as a kind of intellectual assent still less proof to some proposition about the world but rather because i say it as a kind of existential commitment this is where i stand this is how i see the worldp
pit seems to me perfectly obvious that peterson is doing something very similar when jesus called the fishermen by the sea of galilee he said come follow me he didnt offer proofs or even any sort of argument he didnt supply any sort of checklist of their metaphysical commitments he just asked them to follow in a more metaphysically sceptical world they might well have explained their actions thus i act as if god exists and i am terrified that he mightp
pthis isnt being shifty this is precisely what faith looks likep
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61281b7b03bf0981917649b1 | Never trust a scientist | pin 2002 a harvard professor named marc hauser made an exciting discovery about monkeys cottontop tamarins to be specific the monkeys just like human infants were able to generalise rules that theyd learned across different patterns this was a big deal if monkeys had this capacity it would provide key insights into how human language evolvedp
pexcept it was all fake in the experiment which relied on the monkeys looking in particular directions when shown certain patterns hauser had simply pretended that they were looking in the direction relevant to his languageevolution theory they hadnt been when a research assistant questioned how hauser himself kept finding the results he wanted when nobody else who looked at the data could he turned into a browbeating bully i am getting a bit pissed here he a hrefhttpswwwchroniclecomarticledocumentshedslightoninvestigationatharvardwrotea in an email there were no inconsistenciesp
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pit is just a tiny bit ironic then that hauser had also written a book about morality a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikimoral_minds target_blankemmoral mindsem emthe nature of right and wrongema came out in 15 years ago and described hausers theory that we have an inbuilt evolved morality module in our brains perhaps his had gone somewhat awry not only did he fake the data in that monkeylearning paper but there were also allegations that hed lifted many of his books ideas most notably the idea that morality has a universal grammar like language from another academic john mikhail a relnoopener hrefhttpwwwprincetoneduharmanmikhail20and20hauserpdf target_blankwithout crediting hima at allp
pyou might have expected better from an ivy league university professor but the hauser case was a classic reminder of how even the most highpowered intellectuals from the most august institutions should never be given our implicit trustp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202010gettyimages1227715546300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarh5how the experts messed up on covidh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202010howtheexpertsmesseduponcovidrefinnarspanbyspan stuart ritchie and michael storyapdivadiv
psadly we now have yet another story that underlines this lesson something similar might have happened again another ivy league psychology professor another popscience book another set of results that arent real and were never real to begin with another set of credible though i hasten to add at this time unproven allegations of scientific fraud and another irony because the potentially dishonest results were in a study about honestyp
pduke universitys dan ariely has written several books that made a big splash in the world of popular psychology and behavioural economics his combination of humour and what appears to be deep psychological insight made them fly off the shelves in 2008 a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikipredictably_irrational target_blankempredictably irrationalema provided an apparently a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20080316booksreviewberrebythtml target_blankrevolutionarya argument for why economists were wrong to assume rationality on the part of the average consumer in 2012 a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikithe_honest_truth_about_dishonesty target_blankemthe honest truth about dishonestyema used some of arielys own research to explain what makes people break the rules arielys slick charismatic ted talks have racked up millions of views one of them titled a hrefhttpswwwtedcomtalksdan_ariely_our_buggy_moral_codeour buggy moral codea explains why we think its okay to cheat or stealp
punfortunately it seems someone involved with arielys research thought it was okay to cheat last week an a relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorg98 target_blankindepth statistical analysisa showed that a dataset from one of his 2012 papers was essentially beyond doubt fraudulent the study had apparently showed that people were more honest about how much mileage their car had done if you made them sign a i promise this information is true statement embeforeem they reported the mileage rather than at the bottom of the page but it hadnt shown that in fact it seems no such study ever happened and the data was just produced using a random number generatorp
pariely responded to the claims he said that hed had a car insurance company collect the data so someone emthereem must have faked it impressively the faker made the results of the study line up perfectly with arielys theory in other words his crime was one of sloppiness rather than fraud since he didnt doublecheck the data he wont say which insurance company it was his responses were a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbuzzfeednewscomarticlestephaniemleedanarielyhonestystudyretraction target_blankdescribeda by embuzzfeed newsems investigative journalist stephanie lee as vague and conflicting nor will duke university reveal any of the details of the investigation they claim to have made into the matter the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpnasorgcontent1093815197 target_blankstudya with the allegedly fraudulent data which has been cited over 400 times by other scientists is to be retractedp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202104gettyimages3248886e1618856233966300x167jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarh5the empty promise of pop psychologyh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202104theemptypromiseofpoppsychologyrefinnarspanbyspan sarah ditumapdivadiv
plike hausers paper on monkeys which has been cited more than 175 times that apparently faked paper on honesty has already done damage to the scientific literature each of those 400 citations used it to a greater or lesser extent to buttress some scientific argument they were making in every case they seem to have been misled this is part of the tragedy of fraud in a cumulative endeavour like science the least ariely could do now is provide every possible detail of the provenance of the fake dataset so the scientific community can get to the bottom of itp
pbut in the case of ariely reticence is something of a pattern in 2010 he told an interviewer a fact about the extent to which dentists agree on whether a tooth has a cavity he said it was only 50 of the time his apparent source delta dental insuranceuu denied this ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwburorgnpr131079116shouldyoubesuspiciousofyourdentistornprssource target_blankclaimeda someone at delta dental had given him the information but he wouldnt reveal anything about them other than the fact theyd definitely not want to talk to anyone else about itp
pand just a few months ago another of his papers from 2004 was given a special editorial expression of concern because of over a dozen statistical impossibilities in the reported numbers these couldnt be checked ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoi10117709567976211035782 target_blanksaida because hed lost the original data filep
pmaybe its worth looking at arielys own theory about cheating and dishonesty in his ted talk he described an a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoifull101111j14679280200902306x target_blankexperimenta of his in which the participants had been more likely to cheat on a dollarpercorrectanswer maths test if they only had to selfreport their number of correct answers having shredded the answer sheet that is when nobody could check the details dishonesty kicked in someone should probably check the data in that study is legitimate thoughp
diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202105gettyimages1211656392594x5941300x194jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarh5how science has been corruptedh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105howsciencehasbeencorruptedrefinnarspanbyspan matthew crawfordapdivadiv
pscience is supposed to be all about emnullius in verbaem take nobodys word for it everything down to the tiniest detail is supposed to be readily verifiable even if a scientist has done everything completely above board they shouldnt have to rely on the dog ate my homework or i do have a girlfriend but she goes to a different school so you wouldnt know her excuses the whole idea of having a scientific record is to well emrecordem things a literature thats full not just of fraud but also unverifiable claims is a strange contradiction in termsp
peven if this is the end of the ariely affair and no other issues with his research are found its still a perfect illustration of so many of the problems with our scientific system a patchy literature of unclear veracity researchers losing track of their data allowing error and sometimes fraud to slip in scientists building lucrative careers on a foundation of dodgy research while the people that clean up their mess the fraudbusters and data sleuths go largely unsung bestselling popular books spreading untrue and unverifiable claims to thousands of readersp
pyou need only look at previous massivelysuccessful books on the topics of a relnoopener hrefhttpsunherdcom202105youremorebiasedthanyouthink target_blankhuman biasesa and the a relnoopener hrefhttpsguzeycombookswhywesleep target_blankimportance of sleepa to see how lowquality research and sloppy scientific arguments can reach enormous audiences at best the implications of this are that dinnerparty conversations will contain even fewer solid facts than usual at worst patients or their doctors will make decisions about their health on the basis of some unproven vaguelyreported fact they read in some famous professors popular bookp
pits easy to get distracted by the tangles of irony of these cases the immoral morality expert the dishonesty expert who at best got duped by dishonesty as amusing as the stories are they also have rather grim consequences no matter the subject area and no matter how impressive the credentials our trust in the experts keeps being betrayedp
pand in some sense this is a good thing scandals like this remind us to take nothing at face value emnullius in verbaem after all in response to the new fraud revelations ariely a relnoopener hrefhttpdatacoladaorgstorage_strongdanblogcomment_aug_16_2021_finalpdf target_blankwrotea that he did not test the data for irregularities which after this painful lesson i will start doing regularly whether or not you trust arielys research or his books any more its good advicep
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