Abstract:
The instant invention provides methods for determining, predicting and characterizing the genetic variability of a range of organisms, including, e.g., viruses, microbes, cells and multicellular organisms. Accordingly, the invention provides methods for identifying virulent pathogens, genetic mutations within pathogens that are relevant to animal health, and methods and compositions for prophylactic or therapeutic intervention against such pathogens.

Description:
RELATED APPLICATIONS  
       [0001]     This application is related to U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/585,306 filed on Jul. 2, 2004, U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/587,580, filed on Jul. 13, 2004, U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/590,162 filed on Jul. 21, 2004, and U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/______ filed on Jun. 16, 2005, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.  
         [0002]     The contents of all references, patents and published patent applications cited throughout this application are hereby incorporated herein by reference in their entirety. 
     
    
     BACKGROUND  
       [0003]     Despite remarkable achievements in the development of molecular genetics for understanding human and animal disease as well as determining the genetic nature of pathogens, rules for prediction or prognosis of future disease and pathogen virulence remain elusive. Typically, genetic alterations in cell genomes resulting in disease (or disease susceptibility) or genetic sequence of virulent pathogens is collected a posteriori, cataloged, and then used to make a diagnosis, and determine an appropriate therapeutic. Accordingly, responding therapeutically to the sequelae of genome instability in a subject suffering from a genetic disease (or disease susceptibility) and/or pathogen is typically reactive rather than proactive. This is especially true in treating, for example, human and animal response to pathogens such as viruses.  
         [0004]     Development of viral vaccines presents unique challenges to modern medicine (see, for example, Ault, A. (2004)  Science,  303:1280). Due to the constant evolution of many pathogens, and in particular, viruses, development of effective vaccines is often a difficult, and imperfect, process. Reliable prediction of the future molecular evolution of viral genomes would be expected to advance mankind&#39;s ability to combat such pathogens both prophylactically and therapeutically.  
         [0005]     Viruses are the smallest of parasites, and are completely dependent upon the cells they infect for their reproduction. Of the viruses that infect humans, many infect their hosts without producing overt symptoms, while others (e.g., influenza) produce a well-characterized set of symptoms. Importantly, although symptoms can vary with the virulence of the infecting strain, identical viral strains can have drastically different effects depending upon the health and immune response of the host.  
         [0006]     A better understanding of the molecular events that lead to genome instability not only for understanding human and animal disease but also the evolution of pathogens such as viruses, is needed. Indeed, the ability to predict the molecular evolution of pathogenic genomes would be broadly expected to enhance the design of anti-pathogenic agents.  
       SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION  
       [0007]     The instant invention is based at least in part on the discovery that genome instability across a wide array of organisms, including eukaryotic cells, prokaryotic cells, and viruses occurs as a function of a newly-identified mechanism termed copy-choice recombination. Heretofore, random mutations, gene translocations, and/or gene reassortment were thought to be the predominant mechanisms of viral gene evolution. Indeed, until recently, it was believed that viral evolution has been primarily due to the accumulation of small mutations in the viral genome. However, this mechanism explains only a small part of the evolution of viruses.  
         [0008]     The newly-identified mechanism described herein can account for the acquisition of gene mutations between two or more gene sequences in a cellular or organismal context. Accordingly, the mechanism disclosed herein is predictive for mutations that can occur in multicellular organisms, eukaryotic cells, prokaryotic cells, in pathogens and microbes, and, in particular, viruses.  
         [0009]     Without being bound by theory, the invention provides a mechanism of genetic evolution based upon recombination or acquisition of a previously existing sequence(s) by gene copy recombination, i.e., referred to herein as copy choice recombination rather than through the introduction of de novo genetic mutation(s) based on, e.g., polymerase proof-reading errors, spontaneous point mutations, and the like.  
         [0010]     This mechanism of genetic change can be readily exploited to provide predictive rules by which genetic changes in the genomes of eukaryotic cells, prokaryotic cells, pathogens, microbes, viruses, and the like can be forecast. Accordingly, the likelihood of a genetic alteration appearing in a given genome allows for a priori intervention, e.g., the prediction or prognosis of genetic disease or disorder, or emergence or appearance of a strain of pathogen, e.g., a virulent strain, such that therapy can be rationally designed.  
         [0011]     The predictive rules of the invention, i.e., of copy-choice recombination include, e.g., 1) that the prediction that genetic alterations are acquired in tracts that resemble the haplotypes documented in higher eukaryotic genomic sequence, 2) that the prediction that genetic alterations typically comprise a high frequency of nucleic acid base transitions, and/or 3) that the prediction that genetic alterations are acquired from an existing gene sequence(s) from a parental nucleic acid sequence.  
         [0012]     In one embodiment, the predicative rules of the invention can be used to improve human or animal health by forecasting the likelihood of a disease or disorder or the pharmacogenomic responsiveness of a subject.  
         [0013]     In another embodiment, the predicative rules of the invention can be used to improve human or animal health by forecasting the likelihood of the appearance or emergence of a pathogen, for example, a virulent strain of virus, thereby allowing for therapeutic intervention, for example, administering of an anti-pathogenic agent, for example, an antiviral and/or vaccine (e.g. passive or active vaccine).  
         [0014]     In another embodiment, the invention provides for a comparison of parental viral strains with their mutant progeny viral strains which can be used to define and elucidate selective pressures on rapid evolution. The identification of recombinants can be used to identify genetic instability, which is currently evident in many viruses throughout the world, for example, influenza. The parental viruses can also be used to create recombinants prior to detection in field isolates and such recombinants can be used to make protective vaccines against future recombinants, which cause significant disruptions in animal husbandry and human health.  
         [0015]     In still another embodiment, the invention provides rules that can be applied, e.g., to predict the genetic composition and, optionally, associated phenotypic traits (e.g., drug resistance) of viruses or bacteriae that arise from the mixing within a single host organism of distinct “parental” viruses or bacteriae (e.g., ebola, flu and/or HIV; foot and mouth and Newcastle disease; SARS, HIV and/or astroviruses; HIV and coronavirus; distinct drug-resistant bacterial strains, etc.).  
         [0016]     In yet another embodiment, the invention provides methods of generating libraries of diverse viral sequences to be used, for example, in the manufacture of viral vaccines, or for testing of antiviral compounds. The invention further provides methods of identifying parental viral strains.  
         [0017]     The instant invention also provides methods for monitoring the efficacy of viral vaccines and for monitoring the diversity of a viral population.  
         [0018]     Accordingly, the invention has several advantages, which include, but are not limited to, the following: 
        providing rules for determining the nature of genetic alteration occurring or likely to occur in eukaryotes, prokaryotes, and pathogens and predicting future genetic alterations;     providing methods for prognosis of genetic alterations in a human or animal and/or pharmacogenomic responsiveness of a human or animal;     providing methods for determining gene sequences in a human or animal suitable for modulating thereby preventing or treating a disease or disorder;     methods for identifying rational candidate pathogens for therapeutic intervention;     methods and compositions relating to vaccines and vaccine development against pathogen targets, for example, viral pathogens; and     methods and compositions relating to vaccines and vaccine development against influenza, for example, virulent strains of influenza such as H5N2, H5N1, H7N2, H7N3, H7N7, H1N1, H9N2, WSN/33, H6N1, H1N2, H2N2, H3N2, H3N8 and H2N9.        
 
         [0025]     Other features and advantages of the invention will be apparent from the following detailed description and claims. 
     
    
     BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS  
       [0026]      FIG. 1  depicts a schematic representation of recombination between two copies of DNA. The left panel depicts a single crossover event, while the right panel depicts a double crossover event.  
         [0027]     FIGS.  2 A-H depict the location of polymorphisms in the PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, NA, MP, and NS genes, respectively, from influenza viruses isolated from the Hong Kong pandemic of 2001.  
         [0028]     FIGS.  3 A-H depict the location of polymorphisms in the PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, NA, MP, and NS genes, respectively, from influenza viruses isolated in Hong Kong during 2002-2003.  
         [0029]     FIGS.  4 A-J depict examples of viral recombination. FIGS.  4 A-D depict polymorphisms in two isolates (31.2 and 31.4) from a chicken in Hong Kong.  FIG. 4E  depicts recombination in the NA gene of a H9N2 isolate from Korea.  FIG. 4F  depicts polymorphisms in the PA gene of a Korean avian isolate.  FIG. 4G  depicts polymorphisms in PB2 isolated from a Korean swine indicative of recombination between human lab strain WSN/33 and Korean swine isolates from 2004.  FIG. 4H  depicts recombination in human HA genes isolated in 2002.  
         [0030]      FIG. 5  depicts the Ebola and influenza strain sequences for a conserved 18 nucleotide tract.  
         [0031]     FIGS.  6 A-C depict additional examples of viral recombination among influenza strains.  
         [0032]      FIGS. 7A and 7B  depict additional examples of viral recombination among influenza strains.  
         [0033]      FIGS. 8A and 8B  depict additional examples of viral recombination among influenza strains.  
     
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION  
       [0034]     In order to provide a clear understanding of the specification and claims, the following definitions are conveniently provided below.  
         [0000]     Definitions  
         [0035]     The term, “parental viral strains” is intended to mean the two, or more, viral strains in a population that supply the genetic material to the mutant progeny viral strains in the population through a copy choice recombination mechanism. The parental viral strains are two or more strains of virus that are present in a recently (e.g., within one, two, three, six, twelve, or more months) isolated population of viruses. In one aspect the parental viral strains are the most prevalent sequences in a population. In another aspect, the parental viral strains are the most diverse sequences in a population.  
         [0036]     The term, “mutant progeny viral strains” as used herein is intended to mean the viral progeny derived from the parental viral strains. In one embodiment, the mutant progeny viral strains are created by a copy-choice recombination mechanism using the genetic material provided by the parental strains. In one embodiment, the mutant progeny viral strains are isolated from a population of viruses based on one or more desired criteria, e.g., nucleotide sequence, polypeptide sequence, virulence, host range, or tropism.  
         [0037]     Similarly, the term “parental bacteria strains” is intended to mean the two, or more, bacteria strains in a population that supply the genetic material to the mutant progeny bacteria strains in the population through a copy choice recombination mechanism. The parental bacteria strains are two or more strains of bacteria that are present in a recently (e.g., within one, two, three, six, twelve, or more months) isolated population of bacteria. In one aspect the parental bacteria strains are the most prevalent sequences in a population. In another aspect, the parental bacteria strains are the most diverse sequences in a population.  
         [0038]     Likewise, the term “mutant progeny bacteria strains” as used herein is intended to mean the bacteria progeny derived from the parental bacteria strains. In one embodiment, the mutant progeny bacteria strains are created by a copy-choice recombination mechanism using the genetic material provided by the parental strains. In one embodiment, the mutant progeny bacteria strains are isolated from a population of bacteria based on one or more desired criteria, e.g., nucleotide sequence, polypeptide sequence, drug resistance, pathogenicity, infectivity, etc.  
         [0039]     The term “copy choice recombination” as used herein is intended to mean the mechanism of viral or bacterial recombination in which a progeny viral or bacterial strain is made in a cell or organism that has been infected by two or more parent viral strains and the genetic material of the progeny is a mix of the genetic material of the parent strains. Without being bound by mechanism, copy choice mechanism results from the DNA or RNA replication machinery starting on DNA or RNA from one parent and switching to the DNA or RNA from a second parental strain during duplication of a piece of DNA or RNA. This process can happen one or more times thereby resulting in progeny virus or bacteria that has a DNA or RNA sequence that is a mix of the two parental strains.  
         [0040]     Sequences produced by copy-choice recombination, e.g., progeny sequences, can contain any number of nucleotide changes, including one or more nucleotide changes as compared with parental sequences, e.g., 2-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, 50-100, 100-500, 500 or greater changes, typically by recombination, e.g. copy-choice recombination, occurring within a given length of nucleic acid, between two or more strands of nucleic acid, e.g., within two nucleotides or more, e.g., 3-5, 5-10, 10-100, 100-1 kb, 1 kb-10 kb, 10 kb or more, or any range or interval thereof.  
         [0041]     The term “transition/transversion ratio” as used herein is intended to denote a ratio between the number of times a given sequence has a transition, e.g., the substitution of a purine for a purine, or a pyrimidine for a pyrimidine, versus the number of times the sequence has a transversion, e.g., a purina for a pyrimidine or a pyrimidine for a purine. One would expect the ratio to be 0.5 if it were a random process. However, looking at multiple data sets, it has been determined that the ration is often 2 or higher, indicative that the process is not random and that transitions are favored over transversions (see the Exemplification).  
         [0042]     The present invention, at least in part, is based on the surprising observation that recombination, rather than de novo mutation, is a driving force of viral evolution. The present observation that progeny strains of influenza are effectively derived as haplotypes from divergent, “parental” strains of influenza reveals that dual infections of a single cell or organism with two or more distinct strains of virus (or distinct types of virus, e.g., influenza and HIV, or distinct strains of bacteria) can accelerate viral evolution. The present invention therefore provides rules for predicting the outcome of such real-world or controlled mixing experiments. In certain aspects of the invention, these rules can be applied to predict progeny influenza strains that represent optimal vaccine targets, based upon knowledge (optionally real-time knowledge) of the genetic makeup of the prevalent influenza strains in a population.  
         [0043]     In an additional aspect, the rules of the invention may be applied to enable prediction of the genomic composition and/or phenotypic traits e.g., drug resistance, of progeny bacterial strains derived from at least two parental strains of bacteria. Such bacteria can then be used, e.g., in subsequent drug screening steps.  
         [0044]     In one aspect, the instant invention provides a method for identifying parental viral strains in a population of viruses, wherein the population comprises parental viral strains and mutant progeny viral strains, comprising the steps of: obtaining the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more viral genes from a number of isolated viral strains from the population, the number sufficient to allow for identification of the viral strains most prevalent in the population, the viral strains having the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; identifying the viral strains most prevalent in the population, or viral strains with the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; wherein the most prevalent viral sequences, or the viral sequences with the greatest divergence are the parental viral strains.  
         [0045]     In one embodiment, the parental viral strains are the two most prevalent sequences in the population. In another embodiment, the parental strains are the two strains with greatest sequence divergence.  
         [0046]     In one embodiment, the viruses used in the methods of the invention are from a period of time sufficient to allow for the determination of the parental and mutant progeny viral strains. For example, the period of time in which isolated viruses can be used in the methods of the invention can be 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 4 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years, or more. In one exemplary embodiment, the viruses used in the methods of the invention are from one outbreak season, e.g., one influenza season.  
         [0047]     In another embodiment, the methods of the invention use viruses from a defined geographic area, e.g., one in which infected hosts have reasonable chance of interacting. For example, defined geographic areas are southeast Asia, or the continental United States.  
         [0048]     In a related embodiment, the most prevalent viral sequences, or the viral sequences with the greatest sequence divergence are determined by aligning multiple nucleic acid or polypeptide sequences. In another related embodiment, the mutant progeny viral strains are formed by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism.  
         [0049]     Sequence alignments can be done using, for example, a mathematical algorithm. In one embodiment, the percent identity between two amino acid sequences is determined using the Needleman and Wunsch ( J. Mol. Biol.  48:444-453 (1970)) algorithm which has been incorporated into the GAP program in the GCG software package (available at http://www.gcg.com), using either a Blossom 62 matrix or a PAM250 matrix, and a gap weight of 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, or 4 and a length weight of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. In yet another embodiment, the percent identity between two nucleotide sequences is determined using the GAP program in the GCG software package (available at http://www.gcg.com), using a NWSgapdna.CMP matrix and a gap weight of 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 and a length weight of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. In another embodiment, the percent identity between two amino acid or nucleotide sequences is determined using the algorithm of E. Meyers and W. Miller (CABIOS, 4:11-17 (1989)) which has been incorporated into the ALIGN program (version 2.0), using a PAM120 weight residue table, a gap length penalty of 12 and a gap penalty of 4.  
         [0050]     Further, algorithms based upon sequence alignment programs can be developed that automatically compare viral sequences deposited in a database to determine the sequence identity in a population. Bioinformatic approaches can be used to monitor the amount of sequence diversity as a function of time, and location, thereby alerting medical professionals as to when their intervention, i.e., immunization, efforts should be increased. A Bioinformatics approach would be particularly useful for viral populations where there are large databases that would be difficult to align and/or sort, e.g., by date or location, manually, e.g., HIV or influenza. Bioinformatics can be used to determine the parental viral strains in a population of viruses and/or determine the mutant viral progeny viruses in a population of viruses by sorting the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequences by, for example, the number and/or location of non-identical nucleotides or amino acids, respectively.  
         [0051]     In another aspect, bioinformatics can be used to evaluate databases of viral sequences to identify historically significant sequence variations in a viral gene sequence. The emergence of a previously identified sequence polymorphism is indicative of copy-choice recombination. Without being bound by mechanism, the emergence of a sequence polymorphism in a population of viruses that has not been observed for some time is a sign that there has been copy-choice recombination between two viruses. This approach will allow one of skill in the art to identify, in silico, mutant progeny viral strains that may be problematic, e.g., have high infectivity. Further, analysis of viral sequences in a database for the presence of a known sequence polymorphism that is normally not found in a given geographic area can indicate that copy-choice recombination has occurred.  
         [0052]     In one aspect, the methods of the invention may use a computer based program to identify multiple cross-over points in mutant progeny viral strains. Due to the high number of cross-over points in some genes formed by copy choice recombination (often 10-100 cross-over points per gene) computer algorithms will be useful tools to determine the precise location of cross-over points. These computer algorithms may compare a large database of viral sequences to determine the location of cross-overs in a parental viral strain that gave rise to mutant progeny viral strains. The precise mapping of these locations in combination with analysis of the various polymorphisms will allow one of skill in the art to classify viruses based on genotype rather than the serotype classification currently used.  
         [0053]     In one embodiment, mutant progeny viral strains can be produced by a copy-choice recombination mechanism in combination with reassortment. In another embodiment, the mutant viral progeny viruses are produced by copy-choice recombination in the absence of reassortment.  
         [0054]     Further, in vitro or in vivo techniques can be used to selectively recombine individual genes from different viruses in the population to produce mutant viral progeny viruses. For example, a number of genes from a population of viruses can be analyzed using, for example, sequence alignments. One of skill in the art can isolate genes with desired sequences from the population and use those genes to infect a host cell, egg, or animal to produce a desired set of recombinants. In this situation the genes used to infect the host can come from multiple different viruses (e.g., 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 or more different viruses).  
         [0055]     In one aspect of the invention, the methods of the invention can be used with any viruses that infect a subject. The term “subject” is intended to include organisms which are capable of having a viral infection. Examples of subjects include mammals, e.g., humans, dogs, cows, horses, pigs, sheep, goats, cats, mice, rabbits, rats, and transgenic non-human animals, or birds, e.g., ducks, chicken, geese, and swans. In certain embodiments, the subject is a human. Similarly, the term “host” is intended to include organisms, e.g., mammals, e.g., humans, dogs, cows, horses, pigs, sheep, goats, cats, mice, rabbits, rats, or birds, e.g., ducks, chicken, geese, and swans, and transgenic non-human animals, that harbor a viral strain, nucleotide sequences that recombine via copy-choice recombination, etc.  
         [0056]     In one embodiment, the viruses are RNA viruses. In one embodiment, the RNA viruses are single-stranded RNA viruses. In one embodiment, the single-stranded RNA viruses are positive-sense RNA viruses. In another embodiment, the single-stranded RNA viruses are negative-sense RNA viruses. In a related embodiment, the RNA viruses are double-stranded RNA viruses. In one related embodiment, the double-stranded RNA viruses are positive-strand RNA viruses. In another embodiment, the double-stranded RNA viruses are negative-strand RNA viruses.  
         [0057]     In another embodiment, the viruses are DNA viruses. In one embodiment, the DNA viruses are single-stranded DNA viruses. In another embodiment, the DNA viruses are double-stranded DNA viruses.  
         [0058]     In one embodiment, the viruses are influenza viruses. In another embodiment, the viruses are coronavirus viruses, e.g., SARS CoV.  
         [0059]     In one embodiment, the protein or nucleic acid sequences are from influenza viruses.  
         [0060]     In one embodiment, the influenza nucleic acid or polypeptide sequences are selected from the group consisting of: HA, NA, NP, PA, PB1, PB2, MP, and NS, or combinations thereof.  
         [0061]     In one embodiment, the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequences are obtained by sequencing the isolated viral strains. In another embodiment, the sequences are obtained by sequencing nucleic acid molecules isolated from a subject (e.g., a human or animal) or a tissue sample. In another embodiment, the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequences are obtained from a publicly available database. In certain embodiments, the sufficient number is 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more viral sequences.  
         [0062]     In one embodiment, the one or more viral genes is at least two, three, four or five or more genes.  
         [0063]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of producing a viral vaccine, comprising: infecting a host animal, host animal cell, cell line, egg cell, bacterial cell, or cell extract which supports viral replication with the parental viral strains identified according to the methods described above; and isolating mutant progeny viral strains from the host animal cell line, egg cell, bacterial cell, or cell extract which supports viral replication.  
         [0064]     Viral vaccines of the present invention can be, for example, live vaccines, killed vaccines, attenuated vaccines or subunit vaccines (see, for example, Fields Virology, (1996) Third Edition, Lippencott-Raven Publishers, Philadelphia, pp. 467-469.) Further examples of vaccine production are, for example, Meadors et al. (1986)  Vaccine:  179-184, Poland et al. (1990)  J. Infect. Disease  878-882, Fenner et al. The Biology of Animal Viruses; New York, Academic Press, 1974:543-586, Saban et al. (1973)  J. Biol. Stand.  115-118, and Lowrie et al., DNA Vaccines: Methods and Protocols, Humana Press, New Jersey, 1999.  
         [0065]     An attenuated whole organism vaccine uses a non-pathogenic form of the desired virus. Non-pathogenicity may be induced by growing the virus in abnormal conditions. Those mutants that are selected by the abnormal medium are usually limited in their ability to grow in the host and be pathogenic. The advantage of the attenuated vaccine is that the attenuated pathogen simulates an infection without conferring the disease. Since the virus is still living, it provides continual antigenic stimulation giving sufficient time for memory cell production. Also, in the case of viruses where cell-mediated immunity is usually desired, attenuated pathogens are capable of replicating within host cells. Genetic engineering techniques are being used to bypass these disadvantages by removing one or more of the genes that cause virulence.  
         [0066]     An inactivated whole organism vaccine uses viruses which are killed and are no longer capable of replicating within the host. The viruses are inactivated by heat or chemical means while assuring that the surface antigens are intact. Inactivated vaccines are generally safe, but are not entirely risk free. Multiple boosters are usually necessary in order to generate continual antigen exposure, as the dead organism is incapable of sustaining itself in the host, and is quickly cleared by the immune system.  
         [0067]     One or more polypeptides, or fragments thereof, that are presented by a virus can be formulated into a vaccine that elicits an immune response in a host. These so called “subunit” vaccines often alleviate the safety concerns associates with whole virus vaccines.  
         [0068]     In a related embodiment, the method further comprises attenuating the mutant progeny viral strains to make an attenuated viral vaccine. In another embodiment, the method further comprises killing the mutant progeny viral strains to make a killed viral vaccine. In another embodiment, the method further comprises isolating viral antigens, or portions thereof, from the mutant progeny viral strains to make a subunit viral vaccine.  
         [0069]     In another embodiment, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject against a virus comprising: administering to the subject the attenuated virus vaccine in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject. In one embodiment, the subject is a mammal, e.g., a human, in another embodiment the subject is a bird.  
         [0070]     In one embodiment, the method of immunizing a subject (e.g., a human or animal) against a virus comprising: administering to the subject a killed, or attenuated, virus vaccine in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject. In another embodiment, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject against a virus comprising administering to the subject the subunit virus vaccine in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject. In one embodiment, the parental strains are influenza viral strains. In another embodiment, the parental strains are coronavirus viral strains.  
         [0071]     In one aspect, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject (e.g., a human or animal) against a virus comprising: administering to the subject a first virus representing the first parental viral strain and a second virus representing a second parental viral strain, the first and second parental viral strains identified according to the methods described herein, in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject.  
         [0072]     In one embodiment, the parental viral strains are attenuated prior to administering to the subject. In another embodiment, the parental viral strains are killed prior to administering to the subject. In another embodiment, the method comprises isolating viral antigens, or portions thereof, from the parental viral strains to make a subunit viral vaccine prior to administering to the subject.  
         [0073]     In one embodiment, the parental viral strains are influenza viral strains. In another embodiment, the parental viral strains are coronavirus viral strains.  
         [0074]     In another aspect, the invention provides a viral vaccine composition comprising the parental viral strains identified according to the methods described herein, or antigens, or portions of antigens, therefrom.  
         [0075]     In one embodiment, the viral vaccine further comprises mutant progeny viral strains derived from the parental viral strains, or antigens, or portions of antigens, therefrom. In another embodiment, the vaccine comprises two viral strains, or antigens, or portions of antigens from two viral strains.  
         [0076]     In another embodiment, the vaccine composition, comprising mutant progeny viral strains, or antigens or portions of antigens therefrom, is made by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism of two viral strains whose genomes are made up of non-identical nucleic acid sequences. In one embodiment, the two viral strains are parental viral strains identified according to the methods described herein.  
         [0077]     In one embodiment, the mutant progeny viral strains are produced by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism in a host animal. In another embodiment, the mutant progeny viral strains are produced by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism in cell culture.  
         [0078]     In one embodiment, subjects who should be given a viral vaccine can be determined based on the genotype of the current viral strains in a population. Similarly, the type of vaccine a given subject should receive can be determined based on the genotype of the current viral stains in a population. For example, current viral isolated can be classified by the number of polymorphisms that they have. In one embodiment, the polymorphisms are ones that have been identified in isolates from pervious outbreaks. The identification of sequence polymorphisms in a population of viral isolates can be used to form an exposure timeline. This time line can be used to determine the age group susceptibility to a viral infection. For example, a new isolate with a number of polymorphisms identified in 1970 may be less of a concern to those people born prior to 1970, whereas this same isolate may produce more severe infection in those subjects born after 1970. Based on this timeline, medical professionals can determine which subjects should be administered a vaccine, or what vaccine a given subject should receive.  
         [0079]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of identifying the stability of a genome in a population of viruses, comprising: obtaining the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more viral genes from a sufficient number of isolated viruses from the population; comparing the number of recombinant viral sequences in the isolated viruses; wherein the greater the number of distinct viral sequences, the greater the instability of the viral genome.  
         [0080]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of identifying the stability of a genome in a population of viruses, comprising: comparing the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more viral genes from a sufficient number of isolated viruses from the population; comparing the diversity between parental viral sequences in the isolated viruses; wherein the greater the diversity of distinct viral sequences, the greater the instability of the viral genome.  
         [0081]     Genetic stability can be used to measure environmental or experimental effects on genetic stability. This measurement can be determined actively or passively. Thus animals can be immunized and then co-infected with two parental strains and the progeny can be monitored to see the amount of recombination that occurs. This approach can be used to measure the ability of a vaccine to reduce or eliminate recombinants. Similarly, assaying a natural population at different time points can be used to measure environmental effects on recombination. The amount of genetic stability (or instability) can be used to identify times when aggressive intervention is necessary, even in the absence of overt disease.  
         [0082]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject (e.g., a human or animal) against a virus comprising: administering to the subject mutant progeny viral strains, or antigens or portions of antigens therefrom, made by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism of two viral strains whose genomes are made up of non-identical nucleic acid sequences.  
         [0083]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject (e.g., a human or animal) against a virus comprising: determining the parental viral strains in a population of viruses; allowing the parental viral strains to recombine according to a copy-choice mechanism to produce mutant progeny viral strains; administering the parental viral strains, or mutant progeny viral strains, or antigens or portions of antigens therefrom, in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject.  
         [0084]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method for identifying parental influenza strains in a population of influenza viruses, wherein the population comprises parental influenza strains and mutant progeny influenza strains, comprising the steps of: obtaining the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more influenza genes from a number of isolated influenza strains from the population, the number sufficient to allow for identification of the influenza strains most prevalent in the population, the influenza strains having the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; identifying the influenza strains most prevalent in the population, or influenza strains with the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; wherein the most prevalent influenza sequences, or the influenza sequences with the greatest divergence are the parental influenza strains.  
         [0085]     In a related embodiment, the invention provides a method of producing an influenza vaccine, comprising: infecting a host animal with the parental influenza strains identified; and isolating mutant progeny influenza strains from the host animal.  
         [0086]     In a related embodiment, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject against an influenza virus comprising: administering to the subject a first influenza virus representing the first parental influenza strain and a second influenza virus representing a second parental influenza strain, the first and second parental influenza strains identified according to the methods described herein, in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject.  
         [0087]     In one aspect, the invention provides a method of producing a library of recombinant viral strains comprising: infecting a host cell or animal with two or more viral strains; allowing for recombination of the viruses by a copy choice mechanism of the two or more viral strains, thereby creating a library of viral strains. In one embodiment, the library of recombination viral strains can be isolate for vaccine production.  
         [0088]     In a related embodiment, the viral strains may be different species of viruses. For example, the first virus could be influenza and the second virus could be a coronavirus, e.g., SARS. In a related embodiment, the identification of a DNA sequence from one species&#39; genome that originated in the genome of a distinct species is indicative that this segment of DNA confers an advantageous property to the virus, i.e., increased infectivity or virulence. Targeting these regions of DNA would provide for effective anti-viral therapy.  
         [0089]     In a related embodiment, the library of viral strains can be created in a host cell or animal that has been given an antiviral compound. In a related embodiment, the viral strains that are created in the presence of an antiviral compound are indicative of the antiviral resistant strains that will occur in a population of subjects treated with the antiviral compound.  
         [0090]     In another aspect, the invention provides a vaccine composition, comprising mutant progeny influenza strains, or antigens or portions of antigens therefrom, made by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism of two influenza strains whose genomes are made up of non-identical nucleic acid sequences.  
         [0091]     In other embodiments, art-recognized methods of gene therapy, e.g., RNAi, may be employed to target viral strains, optionally in a strain and/or otherwise sequence-specific manner, e.g., via use of miRNA, siRNA, shRNA, or other such agents.  
         [0092]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method for identifying parental coronavirus strains in a population of coronavirus viruses, wherein the population comprises parental coronavirus strains and mutant progeny coronavirus strains, comprising the steps of: obtaining the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more coronavirus genes from a number of isolated coronavirus strains from the population, the number sufficient to allow for identification of the coronavirus strains most prevalent in the population, the coronavirus strains having the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; identifying the coronavirus strains most prevalent in the population, or coronavirus strains with the greatest sequence divergence in the population, or both; wherein the most prevalent coronavirus sequences, or the coronavirus sequences with the greatest divergence are the parental coronavirus strains.  
         [0093]     In a related embodiment, the invention provides a method of producing a coronavirus vaccine, comprising: infecting a host animal with the parental coronavirus strains identified; and isolating mutant progeny coronavirus strains from the host animal.  
         [0094]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of immunizing a subject against an coronavirus virus comprising: administering to the subject a first coronavirus virus representing the first parental coronavirus strain and a second coronavirus virus representing a second parental coronavirus strain, the first and second parental coronavirus strains identified according to the methods described herein in an amount sufficient to immunize the subject.  
         [0095]     In one aspect, the invention provides a vaccine composition, comprising mutant progeny coronavirus strains, or antigens or portions of antigens therefrom, made by recombination according to a copy-choice mechanism of two coronavirus strains whose genomes are made up of non-identical nucleic acid sequences.  
         [0096]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of producing mutant progeny viral strains for the manufacture of a viral vaccine comprising; infecting a cell or animal with two non-identical viral strains; allowing for recombination of the non-identical viral strains according to a copy-choice mechanism; thereby producing mutant progeny viral strains. In one embodiment, the method further comprises isolating the mutant progeny viral strains from the host cell or animal.  
         [0097]     In one aspect, the invention provides a method of determining the efficacy of a vaccine comprising: obtaining the nucleic acid or polypeptide sequence of one or more viral genes from a number of isolated viral strains from a population that has been treated with a viral vaccine, the number sufficient to allow for number of mutant progeny viral strains in the population; wherein, the lower the number of different mutant progeny viral strain sequences, the greater the efficacy of the vaccine.  
         [0098]     In another embodiment, the invention provides a method of predicting the sequence of one or more genes in a mutant progeny viral strain comprising obtaining the sequence of one of more of the genes from a parental viral strain, determining the location of possible recombination events, thereby predicting the sequence of one or more genes in a mutant progeny viral strain. In a related embodiment, the viral strain is selected from the group consisting of an influenza viral strain, a corona viral strain, and an HIV viral strain. In another related embodiment, the method further comprises using the predicted sequence of the mutant progeny viral strain to develop a vaccine against said virus.  
         [0099]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of producing mutant progeny viral strains comprising infecting a cell or animal with two non-identical viral strains, allowing for recombination of the non-identical viral strains according to a copy-choice mechanism, thereby producing mutant progeny viral strains. In a related embodiment, the method further comprises isolating said mutant progeny viral strains.  
         [0100]     In a related aspect, the invention provides a method of producing mutant progeny virus(es) comprising infecting a cell or animal with two or more non-identical viruses (e.g., ebola and influenza), allowing for recombination of the non-identical viruses according to a copy-choice recombinant mechanism, thereby producing mutant progeny virus(es). In related embodiments, the method further comprises isolating and/or raising vaccine(s) to said mutant virus(es).  
         [0101]     In a further aspect, the invention provides a method of producing mutant progeny bacterial strains comprising infecting a cell or animal with two or more non-identical bacterial strains, allowing for recombination of the non-identical bacterial strains according to a copy-choice recombinant mechanism, thereby producing mutant progeny bacterial strains. In a related embodiment, the method further comprises isolating said mutant progeny viral strains. In another embodiment, the method further comprises assessing a phenotypic trait of a mutant progeny bacteria (e.g., drug resistance, assessed, e.g., via compound screening assays).  
         [0102]     In a related aspect, copy-choice recombination is responsible for the occurrence of non-mendelian inheritance in certain plants, e.g., Arabidopsis. Thus, the invention provides a method for predicting and/or performing non-mendelian inheritance via copy-choice recombination in plants (e.g., Arabidopsis), provided two or more non-identical parental plants.  
         [0103]     In a related aspect, the invention provides a method of predicting a phenotypic trait (e.g., virulence, drug resistance, etc.) of a mutant progeny virus, bacteria or plant through assessment of the range of mutant progeny possible via copy-choice recombination from two or more parental viruses, bacteriae or plants.  
         [0104]     In another aspect, the invention provides a method of producing a population of recombinant genes comprising introducing into a cell two or more non-identical copies of a gene, allowing for recombination of the genes, thereby producing a population of recombinant genes. In a related embodiment, the recombination occurs via a copy-choice mechanism. In a related embodiment, the method further comprises isolating one or more members of the population of recombinant genes. In one embodiment, the genes are viral genes. In another embodiment, the genes are from non-viral species, e.g., plants or animals.  
       EXEMPLIFICATION  
       [0105]     Throughout the examples, the following materials and methods were used unless otherwise stated.  
         [0000]     Materials and Methods  
         [0106]     In general, the practice of the present invention employs, unless otherwise indicated, conventional techniques of chemistry, molecular biology, recombinant DNA technology, immunology (especially, e.g., antibody technology), and standard techniques in electrophoresis. See, e.g., Sambrook, Fritsch and Maniatis, Molecular Cloning: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press (1989); Antibody Engineering Protocols (Methods in Molecular Biology), 510, Paul, S., Humana Pr (1996); Antibody Engineering: A Practical Approach (Practical Approach Series, 169), McCafferty, Ed., Irl Pr (1996); Antibodies: A Laboratory Manual, Harlow et al., C.S.H.L. Press, Pub. (1999); and Current Protocols in Molecular Biology, eds. Ausubel et al., John Wiley &amp; Sons (1992).  
       Example 1  
     Influenza A Emergence and Evolution Via Recombination  
       [0107]     Influenza A is thought to evolve gradually via point mutations and abruptly via reshuffling of its eight segmented genes. Here, Influenza A evolution has been shown to be driven by recombination in hosts infected with two distinct viruses. Most polymorphisms of closely related viruses are bimorphisms, involving third base codon changes, which are silent at the protein level. The recombination generates both versions of the nascent genes and both viruses are viable. The recombination redistributes existing polymorphisms, allowing prediction of the genetic composition of new viruses, before they emerge. This recombination mechanism is common. It generates pandemic H5N1 influenza, as well as most or all, rapidly evolving genomes.  
         [0108]     The looming H5N1 flu pandemic has attracted considerable attention (Peiris et al 2004; Fouchier et al 2005; Osterholm 2005). To determine the molecular mechanisms behind the evolution and emergence of H5N1, recent sequences of isolates from Hong Kong were compared to determine the genetic basis for the evolution of a pandemic strain that has spread through eastern Asia and caused human fatalities in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.  
         [0109]     Influenza has a segmented genome and the reassortment of the eight genes has been used to classify the H5N1 isolates (Guan et al 2002, Alexandr et al 2003). Changes in influenza genetic composition have been described as drifts and shifts (Webster et al 1992). The drifts have been characterized as gradual changes due to replication errors by an RNA polymerase lacking a proof-reading function. Shifts are thought to involve more dramatic changes in genetic composition due to reassortment of the eight sub-genomic RNAs.  
         [0110]     Analysis of the changes of H5N1 isolates indicated that both drifts and shifts were caused by homologous recombination, which generated complementary genomes. Dual infections lead to the recombinants, which resemble point mutations when two closely related viruses recombine. The same mechanism between more distantly related virus can produce much more dramatic changes and create two viable genomes which are complementary. Most of the polymorphisms are transitions, so the positions are largely binary and most of the RNA changes are synonymous. Thus, the polymorphisms in the genetic population are largely bimorphisms represented by either a purine or pyrimidine. The redundancy in the genetic code produces synonymous changes for almost all third base transitions.  
         [0111]     Although many changes are found throughout the database indicating a large number of alterations would produce viable progeny, the changes are limited largely by the resident gene pool and the composition of the recombinants is related to the prevalence of the polymorphisms in co-circulating genotypes. The newly formed recombinants can be predicted by the prevailing gene pools.  
         [0112]     These complementary polymorphisms are used in virtually all biological systems. They are common in rapidly evolving viruses, but similar mechanisms drive repair of polymorphisms at the cellular level. Moreover, non-homologous recombination is used to link together viral genomes that have similar pathologies such as Ebola and pandemic H1N1 and H5N1 influenza.  
         [0113]     Evolution of pandemic H5N1 can be traced to 2001H5N1 Hong Kong isolates. The live market isolates formed five groupings based on reasserted genes (Guan et al. 2002). Representative isolates generated a neurotropic version isolated from mouse brain (Alexander et al 2003). The isolates in Hong Kong had major polymorphisms that were present in at least 20% of the isolates.  
         [0114]     The polymorphisms for all eight genes are listed in  FIG. 1  ( FIGS. 1A-1H ). For each gene, the isolates segregated out into two major genotypes designated Allele 1 and Allele 2. Allele 1 was composed of Group A and for some genes, Group B. Allele 2 was generally Groups C-E. These groupings were present across all eight genes and the polymorphisms were coded with regard to the emerging pandemic strain found in Vietnam and Thailand. The two alleles complement each other and for most positions the polymorphisms were bimorphisms incorporating a purine or pyrimidine at third base positions, thereby producing synonymous changes.  
         [0115]     The complementary nature of the bimorphisms suggested the two alleles were generated via homologous recombination. The use of only a purine or pyrimidine at a third base position generates two RNA versions of the same protein. The number of bimorphisms for each gene suggested some of these genes had already recombined to generate one version that was highly homologous to the pandemic strain and another version that contained the alternate purine or pyrimidine. Thus, for PB2, HA, NA, and NS the number of polymorphisms was small (11-39) and the bimorphisms that matched the pandemic strain were evenly divided between two alleles. In contrast, PB1 had already recombined to place most of the matching bimorphisms in allele 1 and there were 111 polymorphisms. Similarly, PA had also recombined so most of the matching bimorphisms were in allele 2 and there were 114 polymorphisms. M is a smaller gene and not as genetically diverse, so there were only 29 polymorphisms and most that matched the pandemic gene were in Allele 2. NP was somewhat unusual. There were 63 polymorphisms that were evenly divided, but there were 61 additional polymorphisms that were not in either allele, but were already in Group E which was defined by an NP gene that was novel to the other isolates in Hong Kong.  
         [0116]     The genotype data presented in  FIG. 1  also revealed more limited recombination, which could be seen in the paired isolates. In PA, the chicken isolates YU822.2 were from Group A and matched Allele 1. However, the two sequences diverged between positions 933 and 1143. There were 18 bimorphisms in this region and only two positions were the same in both isolates. For the 16 positions that diverged, the mouse brain isolate matched allele 2 at all 16 positions. A similar crossing over event was seen in the PB1 gene. NT873.3 was in Group E and matched allele 2. However, the two sequences diverged between positions 1374 and 1509. The were 10 bimorphisms and NT873.3 matched the consensus sequence for allele 1 at all 10 positions, identifying another cross-over event that had caused a short region of allele 1 to be detected in allele 2.  
         [0117]      FIG. 2  shows the result of much more extensive recombination seen in the Hong Kong isolates from 2002 and 2003 (Strum-Ramirez et al 2004). Panel 1 contains the same bimorphisms from  FIG. 1 . However, the more recent isolates have recombined the polymorphisms from allele 1 and 2 to create a new allele that is highly homologous to the pandemic strain. This recombination was present in all 8 genes.  FIG. 2  also contains the bimorphisms that were present in the pandemic strain but were missing from the Hong Kong isolates from 2001. The genomes recombined in the bimorphisms in Panel A also had most of the polymorphisms not present in Hong Kong in 2001 (Panel B). Thus, not only were the bimorphisms on allele 1 and 2 combined, but the genes now contained most of the missing bimorphisms, which were likely acquired outside of Hong Kong. Panel C lists the bimorphisms not present in the 2002 and 2003 Hong Kong isolates. These bimorphisms can be found in more distantly related mammalian isolates (HLN in preparation). However,  FIG. 2  shows that the bimorphisms from  FIG. 1  recombined and added most of the bimorphisms that were not present in Hong Kong in 2001.  
         [0118]      FIG. 3  displays additional examples of recombination. In the first four panels ( FIGS. 3A-3D ), polymorphisms for the four genes for the replication complex are listed. These bimorphisms were defined by two isolates from the same chicken in Hong Kong, 31.2 and 31.4. The large number of polymorphisms is due to the complementary relationship between 31.2 and 31.4. 31.2 has recombined and is closely related to the pandemic strain. In contrast, the corresponding opposite purine or pyrimidine is found in the 31.4 sequence. These two complementary sequences act as parents of additional recombinants found in Hong Kong live markets, as displayed in the first four panels.  
         [0119]     The number of bimorphisms was high for each of the four genes and the two parental genes were homologous or non-homologous to the pandemic genes. For PB1 ( FIG. 3A ) there were 181 bimorphisms. The recombinant 37.4 was virtually identical to 31.2 through position 1418. The remainder of the available sequence (through position 1890) matched the pandemic strain. Included in panel A is an H5N1 isolate from Fujian province, which is homologous to the 31.2 sequence. The Fujian sequence is complete and was used to define the polymorphisms in the position of the sequence absent for 31.2. The Fujian sequence is one of many sequences outside of Hong Kong that is homologous to 31.2.  
         [0120]     For PB2 ( FIG. 3B ), only a partial sequence was available, but in the 3′ half of the gene beginning at position 1023, there were 144 bimorphisms. For this gene, YU100 is the recombinant and it was virtually identical to the pandemic gene through position 1665 and then matched 31.4 for the remainder of the gene. For comparison, homologous genes from other serotypes (H7N7, H7N3, H9N1, H9N2) from around the world were aligned, and demonstrated that the sequences with the alternate purine or pyrimidine were widespread and not limited to a novel gene found in Hong Kong.  
         [0121]     For PA ( FIG. 3C ), there were 191 bimorphisms and both YU100 and 37.4 were recombinants on this gene. YU100 matched 31.4 through position 1449 and then switched to the 31.2 sequence. In contrast, YU100 matched 31.2 through position 873 and then switched to the 31.4 sequence.  
         [0122]     For NP ( FIG. 3D ), the relationship between the two Hong Kong parental strains had switched. 31.2 was highly homologous to the pandemic strain, to which 31.4 was distantly related. 37.4 was a recombinant in NP, sharing bimorphisms with 31.2 through position 789 and then matching 31.4 for the 3′ half of the gene.  
         [0123]     Thus, FIGS.  3 A-D display the two parental sequences found in chicken 31, as well as one or two recombinants that have a single crossover point. The two parental sequences in chicken 31 are common. The pandemic version was found in genotype Z isolates (Guan et al, 2004) throughout Asia and the sequences with the opposite purine or pyrimidine were found in H5N1 isolates throughout Asia, as well as other serotypes throughout the world. Thus, recombination produced two genes, which differed significantly at the nucleotide level, but were highly homologous at the protein level.  
         [0124]     Recombination was not limited to the internal genes. Evidence of recombination in NA is shown in  FIG. 3E . These sequences were from H9N2 isolates in Korea. In the 5′ half of the gene, two swine (S452 and S81) shared sequences with a chicken sequence (S1), while the remaining 3 swine sequences (S83, S109, S190) formed the opposite bimorphic sequence. However, at position 660, two of these swine sequences switched to the alternate sequence.  
         [0125]     A Korean avian isolate (S16) was a recombinant in PA. The sequence for the first 231 bp was virtually identical to two H9N2 isolates from Hong Kong/Guangzhou. There was only one bp difference with a 2003 avian isolate, and only 2 bp differences with a human H9N2 isolate from 1999. These homologies suggested dual infections between the Korean avian isolate and isolates from Hong Kong. This association was increased by the sequence of the M gene in S16. It was an exact match with a H9N2 1998 swine sequence (10) or differed by a single bp with a second 1998 swine isolate (9).  
         [0126]     Recombination could also be found in human flu genes. Two Korean swine isolates displayed PB2 recombinants between the human lab strain WSN/33 and the 2004 Korean swine isolates.  FIG. 3G  shows the match at the 5′ end of the Genbank sequence of S109 with WSN/33. This match extended to the 5′ end of the gene (Sang Seo, personal communication) and a similar match was found between WSN/33 and S81 (Sang Seo, personal communication).  
         [0127]     Human/human recombination is demonstrated in  FIG. 3H . The 5′ half of HA in 2002 Korean isolates matched current H3N2 isolates, represented by the Wyoming vaccine sequence. These Korean isolates matched Korean isolates from 1991 at the 3′ portion of the gene. Sequences closely related to the 1991 Seoul sequences were identified worldwide in the late 1980&#39;s, but were absent from HA sequences at Genbank from 1991 to 2002, only to re-emerge as recombinants.  
         [0128]     Discussion  
         [0129]     Influenza evolution has been described as a series of drifts and shifts. Drifting was thought to be driven by point mutations generated by an error prone polymerase, while shifting was linked to the reassortment of the 8 sub-genomic influenza RNAs. However, the present invention shows drifts and shifts occur by recombination, and has provided a mechanism for the genetic diversity seen in viruses and other gene systems, and in particular influenza.  
         [0130]     Reassortment between influenza subtype H5N1 and other subtypes has been observed previously. The H5N1 1997 isolates from patients in Hong Kong were reassortants (Guan et al 1999). Internal genes were closely related to genes found in H9N2 and H6N1 isolates. However, this constellation of genes was not seen after H5N1 culling in Hong Kong in 1997. H5N1 was again isolated from humans in Hong Kong in 2003 and these isolates had a very different constellation that was called the Z genotype (Guan et al 2004; Chen et al 2004). Later that year, a related constellation was designated Z+ and this group was found throughout Asia by the beginning of 2004. However, these isolates had regional specific polymorphisms and isolates from patients in Vietnam and Thailand contained polymorphisms unique to those two countries or uniquely shared between those two countries. These polymorphisms will be described elsewhere, but in general the polymorphisms were not found in other H5N1 isolates, but serotypes commonly found in mammals. The biological differences between the Z+ genotypes were due to the polymorphisms, not reassortment. Similarly, the differences between isolates from mouse brains and the parent virus were due to polymorphism, and not reassortment. Some of the differences were clearly generated by short stretches of recombination.  
         [0131]     Although other polymorphisms looked like point mutations, the polymorphisms were not due to recent mutations. They could be found in mammalian serotypes. Similarly, many of the polymorphisms found in the H5N1 pandemic strain could be found in previously-circulating H5N1 isolates. However, as shown herein, these polymorphisms merged via recombination, frequently involving co-circulating haplotypes. These polymorphisms were largely bimorphisms, which were merged via recombination. This process created two viruses simultaneously, which differed in third base codon positions. Since most of these differences were transitions, most of the protein changes were synonymous because transitions in the third base position of 60 of the 64 codons create a synonymous change.  
         [0132]     In Hong Kong in 2001 there were two major closely related genotypes circulating. In genes that had not recently recombined, the new recombined bimorphisms looked like point mutations. Paired samples demonstrated short segments of recombination. Some of the genes had already recombined which led to one haplotype with a large number of bimorphisms that matched the pandemic strain and an opposite version that had a large number of bimorphisms that did not match. Further recombination between these two dissimilar haplotypes created new genes that were chimeras with one end of the gene from one parent and the other half from another.  
         [0133]     In one mechanism, a larger number of crossover events happen in a dual infection in one host; in another mechanism, the multiple crossover events accumulate via a series of dual infections. Some of the recombinants were generated by a single cross over near the center of the gene, while others involved a short region of a few hundred bp. The number of reassortments and recombinations identified in subsequent isolates is much less than the theoretical number that could be generated via a dual infection.  
         [0134]     Recombination is not limited to H5N1 or avian genes. Human genes evolve using the same mechanism and in the Korean swine sequences, genes that were half human and half avian were found. In the example given above, the recombination was with viruses that had been widespread in the late 80&#39;s and early 90&#39;s, but had disappeared from sequences at GenBank for 10 years. Thus, the sequences can be quite stable and reappear within the populations at a later date. These data show that in the absence of recombination, the fidelity of replication is exceedingly high. This conservation of sequence identity can also be found in highly evolving environments. In a 2003 Korean isolate, there was evidence of dual infections with isolates from Hong Kong, a region that has produced rapid genetic change. However, exact copies of the M gene from a 1998 swine isolate in Hong Kong could be found in a Korean avian isolate five years later. These data indicated that the polymerase is not error-prone, or errors are corrected. The diversity seen every year in avian or human isolates is not due to recent mutations. Instead, the changes are clustered bimorphisms, which are distributed via recombination.  
         [0135]     The evolution of virus via recombination is stable. The recombinations seen in 2001 strains in Hong Kong are still present in the 2004 pandemic strains. Hong Kong isolates provided a window on the recombination process, but the same types of recombination were seen elsewhere, including isolates that had recombined genes at an earlier date. Comparison of human H1N1 flu isolated in the 1930&#39;s, such as WSN/33, with classical swine H1N1 also isolated in the 1930&#39;s, identified complementary bimorphisms found in the 1918 pandemic strain. These relationships will be described elsewhere.  
         [0136]     These data have several practical applications. Since the newly-formed recombinants were generated by crossovers between the parental genes, new recombinants could be predicted based on the prevalent genomes in the area. The recombinants align between the two dominant genotypes and complementary versions of the recombinants can be generated. The bimorphisms can be used to determine the origins of the recombinants and can also be used to predict the sequence of the complementary version, since the changes are largely transitions. Therefore, one version predicts the sequence of the complementary version. These rules can be used to identify both future and past haplotypes, which have applications in vaccine development.  
         [0137]     The applications of the rules described herein extend well beyond influenza evolution. Viral sequences at GenBank display high rates of transitions at the codon third base position. The other viruses also use bimorphisms for rapid evolution and complementary versions of viruses are abundant. These complementary relationships can be seen for coronaviruses including SARS (Mara et al 2003; Rota et al 2003), NL63 (va der Hoek et al 2004) and HKU-1 (Woo et al 2005). These relationships will be described elsewhere.  
         [0138]     These relationships can also be found in other systems and can explain the gene repair of higher organisms such as that recently described for Arabidopsis HTH genes. Eleven polymorphisms for the Arabidopsis HTH genes were characterized (Lolle et al 2004), and all eleven were transitions. However, these transitions were selected from mutagenized stocks, so they were not third base transitions and the changes were non-synonymous (Krolikowski et al 2003). However, like influenza, the changes were template-driven and specific. They were found at higher frequencies and under various conditions (Lolle et al 2004). Thus recombination in double-stranded RNA versions of genes can explain the non-mendelian inheritance observed after self fertilization in F3 progeny of Arbidopsis.  
         [0139]     The high frequency recombination in the viral genomes is driven by dual infections. However, dual infections can also play a role in more dramatic evolution involving unrelated genomes. An 18 bp region of H5N1 HA can be found in the Ebola spike gene (HLN in preparation). This particular region contains regional specific bimorphisms in both genomes. Thus, the isolates from Vietnam and Thailand have a specific bimorphism that is not found in earlier H5N1 isolates. Moreover, a second polymorphism generates the HA sequence found in the 1918 pandemic HA. Thus, the high frequency of homologous recombination seen in hosts infected by the same class of virus also extends to viruses of different classes leading to sharing of sequences which can be linked to similar clinical manifestation such as excessive hemorrhaging seen in humans or animals infected with Ebola, H5N1, or H1N1. Details of these relationships will be presented elsewhere.  
         [0140]     Recombination is a strong driver of rapid evolution. In influenza, recombination can produce both drifts and shifts and the same mechanisms have been adopted universally for rapid evolutionary change.  
       Example 2  
     Copy-Choice Recombination Between Distinct Viruses  
       [0141]     The signature of copy-choice recombination can be observed in the mutant progeny of distinct types of parental viruses. In  FIG. 5 , a tract of 18 nucleotides in length has been conserved between Ebola in Africa and the 1918 flu pandemic, connected through intermediate mutant progeny strains of H5 influenza strains. Copy-choice recombination, when combined with selective pressure, can therefore act to conserve blocks of sequence between distinct parental viruses. The conserved block of 18 nucleotides shown in  FIG. 5  likely encodes a small RNA, e.g., a miRNA, possessing functional activity. Similar recombination of sequences from distinct viruses has been observed for SARS, IBV and astroviruses (where a conserved 3′ stem loop structure is shared); foot and mouth disease and Newcastle disesase; and HIV and coronavirus.  
       Example 3  
     Copy-Choice Recombination Applied to Bacteria  
       [0142]     The ability to predict the composition of mutant progeny sequences of bacteria that are likely to arise from combination of parental bacterial sequences can be used to enhance prediction and identification of mutant progeny bacteria(e) that may possess a given phenotypic trait (e.g., drug resistance). Two parental bacterial sequences can be combined in vitro, in vivo, or in silico, with the rules of the present invention allowing for enhanced prediction of which mutant progeny bacteria(e) will exhibit a monitored trait. The present invention can therefore be applied, e.g., to drug screening approaches.  
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       EQUIVALENTS  
       [0168]     Those skilled in the art will recognize, or be able to ascertain using no more than routine experimentation, many equivalents to the specific embodiments of the invention described herein. Such equivalents are intended to be encompassed by the following claims.