Abstract:
A system and method are disclosed for predicting updates to network operations. A system that incorporates teachings of the present disclosure may include, for example, a network management system (NMS) ( 100 ) having a memory ( 104 ), a communications interface ( 110 ), and a controller ( 102 ). The controller is programmed to observe ( 202 ) packet traffic in a network, and predict ( 208, 214 ) a need for updating operations of the network according to the packet traffic and one or more service level agreements (SLAs).

Description:
FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE  
       [0001]     The present disclosure relates generally to network planning methods and more specifically to a system and method for predicting updates to network operations.  
       BACKGROUND  
       [0002]     Telecommunications providers commonly utilize network planning tools to determine when resources in a communications network may need updating. Today&#39;s network planning tools, however, often fail to predict resource shortfalls that might affect service level agreements (SLAs) with existing and prospective future customers. 
     
    
     BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS  
       [0003]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram of communication system incorporating teachings of the present disclosure;  
         [0004]      FIG. 2  depicts a flowchart of a method operating in a network management system according teachings of the present disclosure; and  
         [0005]      FIG. 3  is a diagrammatic representation of a machine in the form of a computer system within which a set of instructions, when executed, may cause the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein.  
     
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION  
       [0006]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram of an NMS  100  coupled to a communications network  101  for serving customer needs according to teachings of the present disclosure. The NMS  100  comprises a communications interface  110 , a memory  104  and a controller  102 . The communications interface  110  utilizes wired or wireless communications technology for interfacing to the communications network  101 . The communications interface  110  can be represented by a circuit switched and/or a packet switched interface.  
         [0007]     The controller  102  utilizes computing technology such as a desktop computer, or a scalable server. The memory  104  utilizes mass storage media such as a high capacity disk drive that can be used by the controller  102  to manage one or more databases in accordance with the present disclosure. By way of the communications interface  110 , the NMS  100  can access independently operated remote systems such as a billing system  120  and/or an activity-based tracking system  130  that can provide information relating to customer service uptake, churn, and other relevant information pertaining to operations of network  101 . Although shown separately, the remote systems  120  and  130  can be in whole or in part an integral part of the NMS  100 . The NMS  100  can also use the communications interface  110  to monitor packet traffic from each of a number of network elements  106  of the communications network  101 . Network elements  106  can be represented by common telecommunication switches (such as SONET, DWDM, Ethernet, an Asynchronous Transfer Mode and Frame Relay switches) and/or or routers (such as an IP/Frame Relay routers).  
         [0008]     In the present illustration, services provided to a customer  108  by network  101  can include Metropolitan Area Networks, Intranets, Internet, and traditional voice services. The communications network  101  can, for example, offer a number of services such as POTS (Plain Old Telephone Service), VoIP (Voice over Internet communications, IPTV (Internet Protocol Television), broadband communications, cellular telephony, and other known or future communication services.  
         [0009]      FIG. 2  depicts a flowchart of a method  200  operating in the NMS  100  according teachings of the present disclosure. Method  200  begins with step  202  where the NMS  100  is programmed to observe packet traffic of the network  101 . The NMS  100  can be programmed to poll each of the network elements  106  for telemetry information. Alternatively, the network elements  106  can be programmed to autonomously send telemetry information to the NMS  100 . Telemetry information can include common telemetry data such as, for example, traffic statistics including a rate of packet flow, traffic delay, loss of packets, jitter, congestion, and so on.  
         [0010]     In step  204 , the NMS  100  can apply regression analysis to the packet traffic telemetry data. With regression analysis, the NMS  100  can predict future events from correlated past events. Bayes&#39; Theorem is a well-known and commonly used regression method. Named for Thomas Bayes, Bayesian logic is a branch of logic applied to decision making and inferential statistics that deals with probability inference using the knowledge of prior events to predict future events. Bayes first proposed his theorem in his  1763  work (published two years after his death in  1761 ),  An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances.  Bayes&#39; theorem provides a mathematical method that can be used to calculate, given occurrences in prior trials, the likelihood of a target occurrence in future trials.  
         [0011]     In accordance with Bayesian or like prediction techniques applied in step  204 , the NMS  100  can detect traffic patterns in step  206 . Upon detecting a pattern, the NMS  100  is programmed to predict in step  208  resource needs from the regression analysis according to packet traffic and one or more performance metrics of one or more corresponding SLAs which the service provider of the network  101  has agreed to support for corresponding customers  108  such as a mid to large-sized enterprise. An SLA can define as a performance metric an expected reliability of network services provided to a customer  108 . Reliability metrics can include a threshold for mean time between failures, a maximum threshold for packet losses and retransmissions, a maximum network congestion threshold, and so on. It would be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art that any performance metric of the network  101  can be applied to an SLA, which can be used in part in step  208  to make predictions on resource needs. In step  210 , the NMS  100  can determine whether there is an anticipated shortfall between present resource capabilities and the predicted resource needs which may violate any one or more of the terms of service provisions of existing SLAs.  
         [0012]     If the NMS  100  predicts a violation will occur in the near future, then the NMS  100  proceeds to step  212  where it presents resource adjustment recommendations. Said recommendations can include, for example, replacing, modifying, and/or adding one or more network resources to network  101 . A recommendation can also include rerouting or reconfiguring traffic between network elements  106  to alleviate an anticipated nonconformance of one or more SLAs. A network resource in the present context can mean a network router such as an IP/Frame Relay router, and/or network switches such as SONET, DWDM, Ethernet, Asynchronous Transfer Mode and Frame Relay switches.  
         [0013]     Whether or not there is an anticipated shortfall in network resources, the NMS  100  proceeds to step  214  where it predicts a supply and demand model from the detected patterns of step  206 , and from other relevant information such as service cancellations, installations, complaints recorded or other relevant information recorded in the billing system  120 , and/or the activity-based tracking system  130 . In step  216 , NMS  100  can check whether there is a need to update services provided by the network  101  according to the supply and demand model. If there is no anticipated need, then the NMS  100  proceeds to step  202  and repeats the foregoing steps.  
         [0014]     If, on the other hand, the NMS  100  anticipates that demand will exceed supply, or supply will exceed demand, the NMS  100  can proceed to step  218  where it recommends an adjustment to services rendered by the network  101 . The adjustment can include, for example, a recommendation to discontinue one or more existing services detected as not being in demand or profitable. The adjustment can also include a recommendation to modify and/or request new services based on patterns detected in customer  108  behavior.  
         [0015]     In step  220 , the NMS  100  can further check whether network resources need to be updated according to adjustments made in step  218 . If, for example, a number of services are added to the network  101 , said adjustment in services may require additional communication resources to maintain conformance to existing SLAs. Alternatively, cancellation of services may provide an opportunity to release resources that can be used to alleviate congestion in portions of the network  101 . Thus, where an adjustment in services is made the NMS  100  can provide recommendations in step  222  for adjusting resources according to techniques similar to those described for step  212 . Upon completing this step, the NMS  100  proceeds to step  202  where it repeats method  200 .  
         [0016]      FIG. 3  is a diagrammatic representation of a machine in the form of a computer system  300  within which a set of instructions, when executed, may cause the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed above. In some embodiments, the machine operates as a standalone device. In some embodiments, the machine may be connected (e.g., using a network) to other machines. In a networked deployment, the machine may operate in the capacity of a server or a client user machine in server-client user network environment, or as a peer machine in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment. The machine may comprise a server computer, a client user computer, a personal computer (PC), a tablet PC, a laptop computer, a desktop computer, a control system, a network router, switch or bridge, or any machine capable of executing a set of instructions (sequential or otherwise) that specify actions to be taken by that machine. It will be understood that a device of the present disclosure includes broadly any electronic device that provides voice, video or data communication. Further, while a single machine is illustrated, the term “machine” shall also be taken to include any collection of machines that individually or jointly execute a set (or multiple sets) of instructions to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein.  
         [0017]     The computer system  300  may include a processor  302  (e.g., a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU, or both), a main memory  304  and a static memory  306 , which communicate with each other via a bus  308 . The computer system  300  may further include a video display unit  310  (e.g., a liquid crystal display (LCD), a flat panel, a solid state display, or a cathode ray tube (CRT)). The computer system  300  may include an input device  312  (e.g., a keyboard), a cursor control device  314  (e.g., a mouse), a disk drive unit  316 , a signal generation device  318  (e.g., a speaker or remote control) and a network interface device  320 .  
         [0018]     The disk drive unit  316  may include a machine-readable medium  322  on which is stored one or more sets of instructions (e.g., software  324 ) embodying any one or more of the methodologies or functions described herein, including those methods illustrated above. The instructions  324  may also reside, completely or at least partially, within the main memory  304 , the static memory  306 , and/or within the processor  302  during execution thereof by the computer system  300 . The main memory  304  and the processor  302  also may constitute machine-readable media. Dedicated hardware implementations including, but not limited to, application specific integrated circuits, programmable logic arrays and other hardware devices can likewise be constructed to implement the methods described herein. Applications that may include the apparatus and systems of various embodiments broadly include a variety of electronic and computer systems. Some embodiments implement functions in two or more specific interconnected hardware modules or devices with related control and data signals communicated between and through the modules, or as portions of an application-specific integrated circuit. Thus, the example system is applicable to software, firmware, and hardware implementations.  
         [0019]     In accordance with various embodiments of the present disclosure, the methods described herein are intended for operation as software programs running on a computer processor. Furthermore, software implementations can include, but not limited to, distributed processing or component/object distributed processing, parallel processing, or virtual machine processing can also be constructed to implement the methods described herein.  
         [0020]     The present disclosure contemplates a machine readable medium containing instructions  324 , or that which receives and executes instructions  324  from a propagated signal so that a device connected to a network environment  326  can send or receive voice, video or data, and to communicate over the network  326  using the instructions  324 . The instructions  324  may further be transmitted or received over a network  326  via the network interface device  320 .  
         [0021]     While the machine-readable medium  322  is shown in an example embodiment to be a single medium, the term “machine-readable medium” should be taken to include a single medium or multiple media (e.g., a centralized or distributed database, and/or associated caches and servers) that store the one or more sets of instructions. The term “machine-readable medium” shall also be taken to include any medium that is capable of storing, encoding or carrying a set of instructions for execution by the machine and that cause the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies of the present disclosure.  
         [0022]     The term “machine-readable medium” shall accordingly be taken to include, but not be limited to: solid-state memories such as a memory card or other package that houses one or more read-only (non-volatile) memories, random access memories, or other re-writable (volatile) memories; magneto-optical or optical medium such as a disk or tape; and carrier wave signals such as a signal embodying computer instructions in a transmission medium; and/or a digital file attachment to e-mail or other self-contained information archive or set of archives is considered a distribution medium equivalent to a tangible storage medium. Accordingly, the disclosure is considered to include any one or more of a machine-readable medium or a distribution medium, as listed herein and including art-recognized equivalents and successor media, in which the software implementations herein are stored.  
         [0023]     Although the present specification describes components and functions implemented in the embodiments with reference to particular standards and protocols, the disclosure is not limited to such standards and protocols. Each of the standards for Internet and other packet switched network transmission (e.g., TCP/IP, UDP/IP, HTML, HTTP) represent examples of the state of the art. Such standards are periodically superseded by faster or more efficient equivalents having essentially the same functions. Accordingly, replacement standards and protocols having the same functions are considered equivalents.  
         [0024]     The illustrations of embodiments described herein are intended to provide a general understanding of the structure of various embodiments, and they are not intended to serve as a complete description of all the elements and features of apparatus and systems that might make use of the structures described herein. Many other embodiments will be apparent to those of skill in the art upon reviewing the above description. Other embodiments may be utilized and derived therefrom, such that structural and logical substitutions and changes may be made without departing from the scope of this disclosure. Figures are also merely representational and may not be drawn to scale. Certain proportions thereof may be exaggerated, while others may be minimized. Accordingly, the specification and drawings are to be regarded in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense.  
         [0025]     Such embodiments of the inventive subject matter may be referred to herein, individually and/or collectively, by the term “invention” merely for convenience and without intending to voluntarily limit the scope of this application to any single invention or inventive concept if more than one is in fact disclosed. Thus, although specific embodiments have been illustrated and described herein, it should be appreciated that any arrangement calculated to achieve the same purpose may be substituted for the specific embodiments shown. This disclosure is intended to cover any and all adaptations or variations of various embodiments. Combinations of the above embodiments, and other embodiments not specifically described herein, will be apparent to those of skill in the art upon reviewing the above description.  
         [0026]     The Abstract of the Disclosure is provided to comply with 37 C.F.R. §1.72(b), requiring an abstract that will allow the reader to quickly ascertain the nature of the technical disclosure. It is submitted with the understanding that it will not be used to interpret or limit the scope or meaning of the claims. In addition, in the foregoing Detailed Description, it can be seen that various features are grouped together in a single embodiment for the purpose of streamlining the disclosure. This method of disclosure is not to be interpreted as reflecting an intention that the claimed embodiments require more features than are expressly recited in each claim. Rather, as the following claims reflect, inventive subject matter lies in less than all features of a single disclosed embodiment. Thus the following claims are hereby incorporated into the Detailed Description, with each claim standing on its own as a separately claimed subject matter.