Abstract:
The present invention provides a system and method for providing an alert notification prior to occurrence of a consequent event. The present invention provides a decision maker with the means to reconstitute his unfiltered operational environment such that the information needed to make an informed decision is extracted from a vast array of data available and presented in a manner that allows the decision maker to focus on the aspects of the decision that are most important to arriving at the best course of action under the exigent circumstances that are present when a response to an unexpected and possibly deleterious event is required.

Description:
CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS 
     This application claims the benefit of priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/644,579, filed on May 9, 2012, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference. 
    
    
     BACKGROUND 
     The present disclosure relates to a system and method for providing decision support. More particularly, the present disclosure relates to a system and method for providing decision support, using precursor networks to predict an event. 
     Many events of significance (Consequent Events) are preceded by a network of other events that have geospatial and time relationships both to one another and to a particular Consequent Event that they precede (each of such other events being a Precursor Activity and the network of such Precursor Activities being a Precursor Activity Network). 
     In many cases, the relationships among specific Precursor Activities that constitute a Precursor Activity Network and between a Precursor Activity Network and the Consequent Event that it precedes can be documented by, or from information gathered from, subject matter experts (SMEs). In some cases, such documentation has consisted of studies or scholarly works (see, for example, the study funded by the U.S. Department of Justice entitled “Pre-Incident Indicators of Terrorist Incidents: The Identification of Behavioral, Geographic, and Temporal Patterns of Preparatory Conduct” by Brent L. Smith, Kelly R. Damphousse, and Paxton Roberts, Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College, University of Arkansas). 
     Presently, the Precursor Activities are manually documented and searched against suspect events, which renders real time or near real time alert of certain events impossible or impracticable. Accordingly, there is a need to establish an automated method and system so as to quickly search for precursor activities, identify evolving Consequent Events, and provide alerts to users on a real time or near real time basis. 
     SUMMARY 
     The above and other needs are addressed in illustrative embodiments of the present invention set forth below. One objective of the present invention is to provide a system and a method that may automate the process by which the specialized knowledge of a subject matter expert (SME), memorialized in computer software program, may be used by the computer software program to examine available information and apply rules developed by the SME to identify possible Precursor Activities and possible Consequent Events, as to the possible time and location, and bring them to the attention of individuals who are without specialized training so that alarms and notifications may be made and other steps taken to prevent the occurrence of an identified Consequent Event or to minimize the adverse effects thereof. 
     According to one aspect, the method of the present invention comprises providing, in a non-volatile computer memory, a precursor network comprising data associated with a plurality of precursor activities, each of the precursor activities having a weighting factor associated with, the precursor network being associated with a consequent event; upon occurrence of an actual event, determining whether the actual event is consistent with at least one of the precursor activities in a precursor network, in accordance with criteria associated with each of the precursor activities; if the actual event is consistent with at least one of the precursor activities in the precursor network, updating the precursor network by noting the occurrence of the additional precursor activity in the precursor network; calculating an indicative value of the updated precursor network by aggregating the weighting factors for all of the precursor activities that have occurred in the precursor network; if the indicative value exceeds a predefined threshold value, issuing an alert notification indicating an increased likelihood for the consequent event; and displaying, on a display panel, the alert notification to an operator. 
     According to another aspect, the method of the present invention comprises: (a) creating multiple Precursor Activity Networks based upon relationships developed by SMEs, each related to a specific type of Consequent Event; (b) as actual events unfold, aligning and realigning these Precursor Activity Networks in a systematic process by identifying the precursor activities in the various Precursor Activity Networks that are consistent with actual events in accordance with the precursor activity characteristics set by the SME; and (c) when the aggregate sequence of activities from a Precursor Activity Network that have actually occurred exceed a defined threshold, instructing the computer is to issue an alert or otherwise bring to the attention of an operator the increased likelihood of the Consequent Event. 
     The method further comprises identifying one or more SMEs that has knowledge of the conditions/events that presage a Consequent Event; for each Consequent Event to be considered, based on interviews and/or evaluation of written materials prepared by the SMEs, determining the precursor activities, alert type, alert keywords, and or other alert characteristics that indicate the occurrence of a precursor activity, the characteristics that define relationships between precursor activities (for example temporal and geospatial) and the Consequent Event as described previously; for each precursor activity in the Precursor Activity Network, based on interviews and/or evaluation of written materials prepared by the SMEs, identifying any confirmatory action that must be initiated to determine that a precursor activity has in fact occurred, and; for each precursor activity in the Precursor Activity Network, based on interviews and/or evaluation of written materials prepared by the SMEs, identifying a relative weighting for each precursor activity in the Precursor Activity Network such that the sum of the weighting factors of appropriate combinations of precursor activities will reach or exceed a preset total that will indicate increased likelihood of the Consequent Event. 
     The method further comprises using TACCS™ (see, for example, U.S. patent application Ser. No. 12/208,738, filed on Sep. 11, 2008) or a similar system to gain access to alerts from as many sources as available; when each alert is received, comparing the alert categorization and accompanying text to determine if the alert matches the characteristics that indicate the occurrence of a precursor activity in one or more Precursor Activity Networks; if the alert matches the characteristics that indicate the occurrence of a precursor activity in one or more Precursor Activity Networks, activating those Precursor Activity Networks, triggering the precursor activity in that Precursor Activity Network; if the precursor activity occurs in an activated Precursor Activity Network, triggering the precursor activity in that activated Precursor Activity Network; keeping each precursor activity triggered in an activated Precursor Activity Network in the triggered state until the relationships to the Consequent Event is such that it no longer satisfies the criteria set forth in the Precursor Activity Network, and; keeping each Precursor Activity Network activated until there are no triggered precursor activities remaining. 
     The method further comprises upon the occasion of triggering a precursor activity, calculating the total weighting of all triggered precursor activities for all Precursor Activity Networks; for each Precursor Activity Network that has a total weighting that exceeds a preset value, creating an alarm that notifies the operator of the increased likelihood of the Consequent Event and lists the detailed information that accompanied the alerts that triggered precursor activities in the Precursor Activity Network; presenting a visualization of the triggered activity network to assist with processing and analysis. 
     One such embodiment may include a geospatial display that indicates the location of each alert that triggered a precursor activity and a shaded circle around the alert with a radius that corresponds to the geospatial relationship between the corresponding precursor activity and the Consequent Event as defined in the Precursor Activity Network, and; Incrementally increasing the degree of shading if the shaded areas surrounding the alerts overlap. 
     Further, according to one aspect, a system of the present invention may enable individuals without specialized training to determine in real or near real time that an event of consequence is likely to occur. The system comprises a module for creating multiple Precursor Activity Networks based upon relationships developed by SMEs, each related to a specific type of Consequent Event; as actual events unfold, a module for aligning and realigning these Precursor Activity Networks based upon their characteristics in a systematic process by identifying the precursor activities in the various Precursor Activity Networks that are consistent with actual events in accordance with the geospatial, temporal, and other precursor characteristics set by the SME; and when a sufficient number of the precursor activities embedded in a Precursor Activity Network have occurred to indicate the likelihood of a Consequent Event, a module for presenting the information in real or near real time and in a manner that it can be understood and acted upon by an individual without specialized analysis training. 
     In view of the above, embodiments of the present invention provide a decision maker with the means to reconstitute his unfiltered operational environment such that the information needed to make an informed decision is extracted from the vast array of data available and presented in a manner that allows the decision maker to focus on the aspects of the decision that are most important to arriving at the best course of action under the exigent circumstances that are present when a response to an unexpected and possibly deleterious event is required. 
    
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWING 
       Embodiments of the present invention are described in connection with the accompanying drawings. 
         FIG. 1  illustrates a representative logic diagram for sample consequent event, precursor activities, and precursor activity network, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. 
         FIG. 2  is a flow diagram illustrating a method, embodied in a Precursor Activity Network, implementable by a computer software perform, in accordance with another embodiment of the present invention. 
         FIG. 3  is a schematic block diagram illustrating components of an event system, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. 
         FIG. 4  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing an elevated level of progress toward a Consequent Event and the location of the satisfied precursor activities. 
         FIG. 5  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing the status of a precursor activity network with three precursor activities having been satisfied. 
         FIG. 6  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing a search for critical infrastructure and key assets associated with the Consequent Event presaged by the satisfied precursor activities. 
         FIG. 7  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing the location of a highly likely Consequent Event based on the satisfied precursor activities. 
     
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
     Embodiments of the present disclosure are described more fully hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is to be understood that the detailed descriptions are presented for illustrative purposes only. Any computer configuration and architecture satisfying the speed and interface requirements herein described may be suitable for implementing the system and method of various embodiments of the present disclosure. 
     The system and method of the present invention may be implemented as a computer software program stored in a computer memory (non-volatile) and executable on one or more computers (hardware or virtual). In one embodiment, the computer software program may be configured to identify (1) the likely occurrence of one or more Precursor Activities that are related to one or more possible identified Consequent Events, (2) the increased likelihood of the occurrence of one or more of such identified Consequent Events, and (3) the general characteristics (such as geographical area, time, target profile, and attack method) associated with each such Consequent Event so identified as being likely to occur. 
     One objective of the present invention is to automate the process by which the specialized knowledge of a subject matter expert (SME), memorialized in computer software program, may be used by the computer software program to examine available information and apply rules developed by the SME to identify possible Precursor Activities and possible Consequent Events, as to possible time and location. These identified activities and/or events may be brought to the attention of individuals who are without specialized training so that alarms and notifications may be made and other steps taken to prevent the occurrence of an identified Consequent Event or to minimize the adverse effects thereof. 
     The process embodied by the present invention creates multiple precursor activity networks based upon relationships developed by SMEs, each related to a specific type of Consequent Event. As actual events unfold, these precursor activity networks are geospatially and temporally aligned and realigned in a systematic process by identifying the precursor activities in the various precursor activity networks that are consistent with actual events in accordance with the geospatial, temporal, and other precursor characteristics set by the SME. Simplistically, the SMEs create a template of precursor activities along with relationship constraints including geospatial, temporal, and/or other elements, but without specification as to precise location and/or time of occurrence. These precursor activity networks are subsequently anchored in space and time based on the occurrence of actual events. 
     The methodology may be analogized to that of assembling multiple puzzles piece-by-piece on a map. As actual events occur, additional pieces are added until pictures of evolving precursor activity networks and Consequent Events emerge overlaid on a geospatial region. The computer may be instructed that, when sufficient information has been gathered and embodied in a precursor activity network, the computer is to issue an alert or otherwise bring to the attention of an operator that a precursor activity network of critical significance exists. Otherwise, the computer, upon instruction, will create and provide reports that show the status of its various precursor activity networks using such parameters as the operator may determine. 
     Referring now to  FIG. 1 , there is illustrated a representative logic diagram for sample consequent event, precursor activities, and precursor activity network. As shown in  FIG. 1 , representative actual events that satisfy the criteria for a precursor activity are shown.  FIG. 1  also shows representative geospatial and time relationships used to define whether or not satisfied precursor activities should be treated as part of the same precursor activity network. Further,  FIG. 1  shows resulting instructions to be implemented by the computer as a result of a precursor activity network attaining a specified criteria. In this illustration colors may be used to indicate the relative weighting of each of the precursor activities should an actual event occur. 
     Referring again to  FIG. 1 , precursor activity  101  pertains to the recruitment of a terrorist suspect, and satisfactory events for precursor activity  101  include communication intercept and informant intelligence. Precursor activity  101  should remain active for a period of, for example, 6 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 50 miles. 
     Precursor activity  103  pertains to the funding of a terrorist activity, and satisfactory events for precursor activity  101  include large cash deposit and money theft. Precursor activity  103  should remain active for a period of, for example, 4 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 30 miles. 
     Precursor activity  105  pertains to target specific threats, and satisfactory events for precursor activity  105  include internet charter, informant intelligence, communication intercept, and voiced threats. Precursor activity  105  should remain active for a period of, for example, 1 month and within a geographical range of, for example, 0 miles. 
     Precursor activity  107  pertains to general threats, and satisfactory events for precursor activity  101  include internet charter, informant intelligence, communication intercept, and voiced threats. Precursor activity  107  should remain active for a period of, for example, 6 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 20 miles. 
     Precursor activity  109  pertains to improper access of building, and satisfactory events for precursor activity  109  include theft of uniforms or badges, and failure of alarm system. Precursor activity  109  should remain active for a period of, for example, 1 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 0 miles. 
     Precursor activity  111  pertains to surveillance equipment, which may be monitored upon occurrence of precursor activity  103 . Satisfactory events for precursor activity  111  include surveillance equipment purchase. Precursor activity  111  should remain active for a period of, for example, 3 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 30 miles. 
     Precursor activity  113  pertains to bomb making equipment, which may be monitored upon occurrence of precursor activity  103 . Satisfactory events for precursor activity  113  include purchase of fertilizer, purchase of explosives, and purchase of certain electronics. Precursor activity  113  should remain active for a period of, for example, 2 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 30 miles. 
     Precursor activity  115  pertains to surveillance, which may be monitored upon occurrence of precursor activity  101  or precursor activity  111 . Satisfactory events for precursor activity  113  include photography, alarm system probes, and questions to employees. Precursor activity  115  should remain active for a period of, for example, 2 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 0 miles. 
     Precursor activity  117  pertains to bomb manufacturing, which may be monitored upon occurrence of precursor activity  113 . Satisfactory events for precursor activity  117  include purchase of fertilizer, purchase of explosives, and purchase of certain electronics. Precursor activity  115  should remain active for a period of, for example, 2.5 months and within a geographical range of, for example, 10 miles. 
     Precursor activity  119  pertains to action, which may be monitored upon occurrence of precursor activities  115 ,  117 ,  105 ,  109 , and  109 . Satisfactory events for precursor activity  117  include suspicious package at potential target. 
     As shown in  FIG. 1 , precursor activities  101  through  119  form a precursor activity network. Each of the precursor activities  101  through  119  may be associated with a weighting factor, which may be designated by an SME, in this case by assigning a color. Upon occurrence of one or more of precursor activities  101  through  119 , the system of the present invention may continuously calculate an indicator value using the weighting factors of the precursor activities  101  through  119 . Once the indicator value exceeds a pre-defined threshold value, the system of the present invention may generate an alert signal indicating that consequent event  121 , such as hotel bombing, is likely to occur. 
     Below Table 1 illustrates another exemplary precursor activities network. As shown, the precursor activities may be recruitment, funding, general threats, target-specific threats, attempts to gain unauthorized access, ID theft, theft or purchase of surveillance equipment, theft or purchase of bomb making equipment, surveillance, evidence of bomb manufacturing. Each of the precursor activities may be associated therewith spatial and time relations. For example, the spatial relation of the “evidence of bomb manufacturing” precursor activity is a maximum of 10 miles distance from a consequent event; and the temporal relation of the “evidence of bomb manufacturing” precursor activity is a maximum of 1 month time before a consequent event. Further, each of the precursor activities in this illustration is assigned a numerical weighting factor. For example, a weighting factor of 70 is assigned to the “evidence of bomb manufacturing” precursor activity. 
     
       
         
               
             
               
               
               
               
             
               
               
               
               
             
           
               
                 TABLE 1 
               
             
             
               
                   
               
               
                 Exemplary Precursor Activities Network 
               
             
          
           
               
                   
                   
                 Max Time  
                 Weighting  
               
               
                   
                 Max Distance  
                 Before 
                 Factor 
               
               
                   
                 from Consequent  
                 Consequent  
                 (Event Alert  
               
               
                 Precursor Activity 
                 Event (miles) 
                 Event (months) 
                 Preset = 100) 
               
               
                   
               
             
          
           
               
                 Recruitment 
                 25 
                 6 
                 20 
               
               
                 Funding 
                 50 
                 12 
                 20 
               
               
                 General threats 
                 25 
                 12 
                 35 
               
               
                 Target-specific 
                 No Limit 
                 18 
                 70 
               
               
                 threats 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 Attempts to gain 
                 0.1 
                 1 
                 70 
               
               
                 unauthorized access 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 ID theft 
                 0.1 
                 0.5 
                 35 
               
               
                 Theft or purchase of  
                 50 
                 6 
                 20 
               
               
                 surveillance 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 equipment 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 Theft or purchase of  
                 100 
                 6 
                 35 
               
               
                 bomb making 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 equipment 
                   
                   
                   
               
               
                 Surveillance 
                 1 
                 1 
                 35 
               
               
                 Evidence of bomb 
                 10 
                 1 
                 70 
               
               
                 manufacturing 
               
               
                   
               
             
          
         
       
     
     Referring to  FIG. 2 , there is illustrated a flow diagram for a method for providing an alert prior to the occurrence of an actual event, in accordance with another embodiment of the present invention. The method may be embodied in a Precursor Activity Network, such as that show in  FIG. 1 , and implementable by a computer software perform. 
     As shown in  FIG. 2 , the method begins from Step  201 , in which an actual event occurs and is reported to a computer system configured to carry out the method. In Step  203 , the actual event may be classified in accordance with various different event types (e.g., planning, funding, specific threat, surveillance, equipment/material acquisition, device creation, etc.). In Step  205 , the actual event may be associated with key assets, such as a location information of the actual event, captured by a geographic information system (GIS). In Step  207 , the actual event may be compared with a plurality of precursor activities. In one embodiment, a network of the precursor activities may be prepared and stored in a computer memory as a simulation/analysis database  210  by, for example, one or more subject matter experts, prior to the occurrence of the actual event, and data of the precursor activities may be retrieved by the computer from database  210  so as to perform the comparison in Step  207 . 
     Further, in Step  209 , the computer system determines whether the actual event constitutes a possible match for one or more of the precursor activities in the precursor activities network stored in database  210 . If the actual event does not constitute a possible match, then the actual event is ignored in Step  211 . In Step  213 , if the actual event constitutes a possible match, then the precursor activities network in database  210  is updated by adding the actual event to database  210 , and an updated simulation/analysis database  220  is stored in a computer memory. 
     The computer system continues to monitor actual events occurred at different times and locations as an ongoing analysis process in Step  215 . In Step  217 , if one of the qualifying actual event remains inactive in the precursor activities network beyond a predefined time period, for example, the computer system then removes the inactive actual event from the precursor activities network. In one embodiment, each precursor activity in the precursor activities network may be associated with a number counter which may be used to count the number of active qualifying actual events. As the monitoring process continues, the computer system calculates an indicator value based on the number of active precursor activities and the weighting factors (see Table 1 above) associated with the active precursor activities. In one embodiment, the indicator value may be calculated by summing the weighting factors of all triggered precursor activities. In Step  219 , if the total indicator value exceeds the event alert preset value (in this particular case, 100), then an alerting notice is sent to a system operator indicating an increased likelihood that a consequent event would follow. In Step  221 , the alerting notice is displayed to the system operator, showing a listing of ranking for the precursor activities network, selected precursor activities in timeline, and/or the geospatial influence zone of the precursor activities network. 
     In sum, each Precursor Activity within the Precursor Activity Network for a representative Consequent Event can be identified, along with the maximum time and distance set by the SME for the occurrence of the Precursor Activity to be related to the Consequent Event. In addition, the criteria for determining whether an alert should trigger a Precursor Activity (alert type and keyword contained in the text accompanying the alert) is provided. Any confirmatory action that is to be automatically initiated to determine if the precursor activity should be triggered is also identified. Finally, each Precursor Activity is assigned a weighting factor. The weighting factors of all triggered Precursor Activities are summed, and, if the total exceeds the event alert preset value, the system operator is provided notice of the increased likelihood of the Consequent Event along with a summary of the alerts that triggered Precursor Activities in the Precursor Activity Network. 
     Referring to  FIG. 3 , there is illustrated a schematic block diagram showing components of an event system, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention. The event system includes a precursor activity network database  309 , a computer simulation/analysis program, and a simulation/analysis manager  315 . Precursor activity network database  309  may be constructed by performing blocks  301  through  307 . 
     Specifically, in Block  301 , an SME may identify precursor activities and consequent events. In Block  302 , the precursor activities and consequent events are formatted as elements in logic networks (precursor activity networks) that embody the geospatial, time, and/or other relationships of individual precursor activities to each other. A relation is also established between the precursor activities and the consequent events that they presage, all as specified by SME-created rules. Precursor activities may include the presence of a known individual with acknowledged skills. When possible, the characteristics of critical infrastructure and key assets (CI/KR) associated with precursor activities and Consequent Events are identified (e.g., hotels, chemical suppliers, etc.). 
     In Block  305 , the elements of actual events that cause the criteria for a precursor activity to have been satisfied are identified (e.g., types of suspicious activity reports (SARs), which are a method adopted by state and federal government agencies to document activities that may relate to illegal activities). Once an actual event that satisfies the criteria established for a precursor activity has occurred, the information relating to the actual event and the satisfaction of the precursor activity are recorded in a database in Block  307 , using a suitable computer simulation/analysis program  311 . In this embodiment, the Priority 5 Touch Assisted Command and Control System (TACCS™) UnitySM simulation/analysis manager  315  may be used. 
     At the time the criteria for a precursor activity have been satisfied by an actual event, that precursor activity is associated with the geospatial location of the actual event; and the precursor activity and associated actual event may be displayed using a suitable GIS viewer, such as TACCS™. 
     Once the criteria for a precursor activity have been satisfied, the precursor activity network containing that precursor activity remains active in the simulation/analysis program  311  until the geospatial, temporal, and/or other relationships that exist between the precursor activities in the precursor activity network can no longer be satisfied. 
     Behavior rules that have been developed by SMEs or others may be assigned to each precursor activity and to each precursor activity network to stipulate the action to be taken by the simulation/analysis program  311  upon the occurrence of an actual event that satisfies the criteria for any precursor activity and upon the occurrence of sufficient events such that the criteria for a critical number of precursor activities within a particular precursor activity network have been satisfied. Such behavior rules may include the following: 
     a. Whether or not there is an active precursor activity network containing the precursor activity, which embodies geospatial, temporal, and/or other relationships that exist between the precursor activities such that the precursor activity should be treated as part of the active precursor network; and 
     b. Whether or not the satisfaction of the criteria for a particular precursor activity represents sufficient progress towards a Consequent Event, such that operator notification is warranted based on the number of precursor activities the criteria for which have been satisfied. 
     Operator notifications may be generated, which may include: 
     a. Notice of the existence of an active precursor activity network, including the extent of progress toward a Consequent Event; and 
     b. Alerts indicating the progress toward a Consequent Event, including: (i) the location of actual events that have satisfied the criteria of precursor activities; and (ii) critical infrastructure and key assets associated with the precursor activities and Consequent Events that meet the established geospatial range criteria. 
       FIG. 4  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing an elevated level of progress toward a Consequent Event and the location of the satisfied precursor activities. 
       FIG. 5  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing the status of a precursor activity network with three precursor activities having been satisfied. 
       FIG. 6  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing a search for critical infrastructure and key assets associated with the Consequent Event presaged by the satisfied precursor activities. 
       FIG. 7  illustrates a graphic user interface on a display panel, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention, showing the location of a highly likely Consequent Event based on the satisfied precursor activities. 
     Advantages of the present invention includes, but are not limited to: 
     1. The task of identifying significant patterns of events within large amounts of data has been automated, not by examining data and looking for possible patterns on a case-by-case basis, but by establishing all patterns identified by the community of subject matter experts and associating actual events with these patterns as the actual events occur. 
     2. By using communities of subject matter experts to create rules that define patterns, and using new experience to refine the rules and thus better define the patterns, the process or method by which data are sought may thus be made more “expert.” Because the process, being automated, can be made widely available, the higher levels of analyses that can be achieved through continuous refinement will also be made widely available. 
     3. By using one or more computers to automate the search for precursor activities, the process of identifying evolving Consequent Events and providing alerts to users can be achieved on a real or near real time basis. 
     In view of the foregoing, it can be seen that the present disclosure provides a system and a method to automate the search for precursor activities, identify evolving consequent events, and provide alerts to users in real time or near real time, thereby supporting the decision process. It is to be understood that embodiments of the present disclosure are described in detail for exemplary and illustrative purposes only. Various modifications and changes may be made by persons skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the present disclosure as defined in the appended claims.