Abstract:
A computer-implemented method comprises the steps of using a processor to calculate, for a current calendar date, an initial growing degree day (GDD) warmth value based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year corresponding to the current calendar date; calculate a present GDD warmth value; calculate a deviation value from at least the initial GDD warmth value and the present GDD warmth value; calculate for a future calendar date a future growing degree day (GDD) warmth value based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year corresponding to the future calendar date; and determine a predicted GDD warmth value for the future calendar date by applying the deviation value to the future GDD warmth value. An apparatus to perform the method is also disclosed.

Description:
RELATED APPLICATION 
       [0001]    This application claims priority to, and the full benefit of, U.S. Provisional Patent Application Ser. No. 61/981,439 filed on Apr. 17, 2014 and titled NATURE CLOCK. 
     
    
     TECHNOLOGICAL FIELD 
       [0002]    This application relates generally to the field of plant health care and more particularly to the field of phenology-based systems for caring for plants. 
       SUMMARY 
       [0003]    A computer-implemented method can comprise the steps of calculating, on a processor and for a current calendar date, an initial growing degree day (GDD) warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the current calendar date; calculating, on a processor, a present GDD warmth value; calculating, on a processor, a deviation value from at least the initial GDD warmth value and the present GDD warmth value; calculating, on a processor and for a future calendar date, a future GDD warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the future calendar date; and determining, on a processor, a predicted GDD warmth value for the future calendar date by applying the deviation value to the future GDD warmth value. The computer-implemented method can further comprise the step of creating, by using a processor, a set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values, each of which corresponds to a single future calendar date. Still further, the computer-implemented method can comprise the step of generating, by using a processor, a treatment plan based at least in part upon the set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values and an adjustment value. 
         [0004]    The treatment plan can include a target date for a phase of treatment. The target date can be included in a date range. The adjustment value can be one of a growth stage factor and a floral set time. The step of generating a treatment plan can include selecting a treatment option that corresponds to the date range. The computer-implemented method can further comprise the step of updating one or more of the predicted GDD warmth values in the set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values. 
         [0005]    A non-volatile computer-readable medium can comprise program instructions for causing a computer to perform a method that comprises the steps of calculating, for a current calendar date, an initial GDD warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the current calendar date; calculating a present GDD warmth value; calculating a deviation value from at least the initial GDD warmth value and the present GDD warmth value; calculating, for a future calendar date, a future GDD warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the future calendar date; and determining a predicted GDD warmth value for the future calendar date by applying the deviation value to the future GDD warmth value. The method can further comprise the step of creating a set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values, each of which corresponds to a single future calendar date. Still further, the method can comprise the step of generating a treatment plan based at least in part upon the set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values and an adjustment value. 
         [0006]    The treatment plan can include a target date for a phase of treatment. The target date can be included in a date range. The adjustment value can be one of a growth stage factor and a floral set time. The step of generating a treatment plan can include selecting a treatment option that corresponds to the date range. Still further, the method can comprise the step of updating one or more of the predicted GDD warmth values in the set of two or more predicted GDD warmth values. 
         [0007]    An apparatus can comprise a growing degree day (GDD) calculator configured to calculate an initial GDD warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the current calendar date and obtained from an historical temperature data store, a present GDD warmth value obtained from a current temperature data store, a deviation value that is based at least in part upon the initial GDD warmth value and the present GDD warmth value, and for a future calendar date, a future GDD warmth value that is based at least in part upon a past GDD warmth value for a calendar date in a previous year that corresponds to the future calendar date; a phenology engine configured to correspond the future GDD warmth value with phenology information from a life cycle data store and a calendar module to create a life cycle prediction; and a plan generator configured to create a treatment plan by selecting a treatment from a treatment data store based at least in part upon the life cycle prediction. The GDD calculator can be further configured to update the future GDD warmth value. The plan generator can be further configured to update the treatment plan based at least in part upon an updated future GDD warmth value. 
     
    
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
         [0008]      FIG. 1  is a system block diagram of a plant health care planning system. 
           [0009]      FIG. 2  is a plan view of a client user interface. 
           [0010]      FIG. 3  is a system block diagram of a phenology engine. 
           [0011]      FIG. 4  is a flow diagram of a method for calculating warmth values. 
           [0012]      FIG. 5  is a flow diagram of a method for updating warmth values. 
           [0013]      FIG. 6  is a flow diagram of a method for creating a pest treatment plan. 
           [0014]      FIG. 7  is a flow diagram of a method for predicting plant life cycle events. 
           [0015]      FIGS. 8A and 8B  are plan views of prediction curves. 
           [0016]      FIG. 9  is a perspective view of various computer-readable media. 
           [0017]      FIG. 10  is a perspective view of a computer. 
       
    
    
     DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
       [0018]    The following detailed description will illustrate the general principles of the invention, examples of which are additionally illustrated in the accompanying drawings. In the drawings, like reference numbers indicate identical or functionally similar elements. It should be noted that for clarity, brevity, and ease of reading, not every combination or subcombination of components or steps is shown or described. It will be apparent from reading this document that various other combinations, subcombinations, and modifications can be made to what is disclosed and described below without departing from the general principles of the systems and methods disclosed and described here. 
         [0019]      FIG. 1  is a system block diagram of a plant health care planning system  100 . The planning system  100  can include a planning engine  110  for generating plant health care plans based on phonological data and observed temperatures. A client  120  can communicate with the planning engine  110  over network  130 . The client  120  can be a dedicated software application running on a mobile computing device such as a smartphone or tablet, or it can be a web interface displayed using a web browser running on a mobile computing device, a laptop computer, or a desktop computer. Additionally or alternatively, any suitable human-computer interface can be used depending upon particular requirements in a given implementation. 
         [0020]      FIG. 2  is a plan view of a client-side user interface  200 . In this example, the client-side user interface  200  is shown as a graphical user interface, although other suitable types of interfaces, including text-based interfaces, Braille interfaces, and audio interfaces, among others, can be used as the client-side user interface  200 . As shown, the client-side user interface  200  can include a category selection menu  210  that can enable a user to select between an operational mode related to insects and an operational mode related to phenology of plants. 
         [0021]    A location menu  220  can enable a user to manually select a geographic region. As will become apparent from reading this disclosure, geographic location can greatly affect creation of a treatment plan because of regional weather differences and even differences attributable to microclimates within a region. Additionally or alternatively, location information can be automatically obtained or changed by using global positional system location information from a device upon which the client-side user interface  200  is running and also through the use of geofencing techniques. 
         [0022]    A calendar  230  can permit a user to enter a desired calendar date. A duration menu  240  can permit selection of a duration of time or range of dates for which the user desires to obtain information created by the planning system  100  of  FIG. 1 . A display area  250  permits a user to view information from the planning system  100  of  FIG. 1 , such as a treatment plan or phenological data of plants, among others. It should be noted that particulars of displays shown in this example can be, and likely will be, changed according to particular features supported by a specific user interface chosen as the client-side user interface  200  in any particular implementation. 
         [0023]      FIG. 3  is a system block diagram of a phenology engine  300 . The phenology engine  300  can include a calculator  310 . The calculator  310  can access information from an historical temperature data store  320  and a current temperature data store  330 . The calculator  310  can use information from the historical temperature data store  320  and the current temperature data store  330  to create a set of predicted warmth values by using growing degree day (GDD)-based calculations and information. 
         [0024]    A phenology engine  340  can use predicted warmth values from the calculator  310  along with life cycle information from a life cycle data store  350  and calendar information from a calendar data store  360 . The life cycle data store  350  can store information related to life cycles of a variety of plants and insects. This information can be created through observation of life cycles of various plants and insects of interest. 
         [0025]    The phenology engine  340  can correlate warmth information from the calculator  310  with life cycle information from the life cycle data store  350  and calendar information from the calendar data store  360  to determine a specific life cycle-related event for a specific plant or insect of interest. Depending upon implementation, such correlation can be performed based upon matching key values with desired chosen values. For example, with plants, the life-cycle related event to be determined can be releases of pollen that can be used to predict high pollen count days for allergy sufferers, peak times for flower blooms, optimal fertilization or pollination times for crops and ornamental plants, seed germination times, and times for pruning and healing, among others. For insect pests, the life cycle-related event can be hatching from an egg, emergence from dormancy, and mating, among others. 
         [0026]    A plan generator  370  can use correlated information from the phenology engine  340  along with treatment information from a treatment data store  375  to create a treatment plan  380 . The treatment plan can provide a schedule for caring for plants of interest based on predicted conditions for a specified calendar date or range of dates. For example, for a lilac bush, a treatment plan can, for each one of a specified care activity, provide a monitoring period during which conditions should be monitored, a treatment period during which treatment is expected to be effective, and an extended treatment period during which additional benefits of extended care activities are expected to be realized. Care activities can include feeding and pruning of plants. With respect to insect pests, treatments can be targeted to be delivered at points in the insect&#39;s life cycle during which the insect is vulnerable to such treatment. Such targeted pest treatment can deliver treatments when expected to be most effective and additionally can provide guidance for the termination of treatment to manage undesired side effects of treatment such as unwanted effects on other plants or living things. A treatment plan can include instructions as to when to apply certain chemicals, how those chemicals are to be applied, in what concentrations to be applied, and dates upon which treatment should occur. 
         [0027]      FIG. 4  is a flow diagram of a method  400  for calculating warmth values. The method  400  can begin execution at START block  405  and continue to process block  410  where an initial GDD value is calculated. This initial GDD value can be calculated as an average value (mathematical mean) of GDD values for a corresponding month and day for three previous years. Prior historical GDD values can be obtained from a variety of sources, including the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As desired or required in a particular implementation, a different number of years can be used. Additionally or alternatively, an initial value can be obtained by using a weighted average, typically with heavier weighting in more recent years. 
         [0028]    Processing continues to process block  415  where a present GDD value is calculated. This present GDD value can be obtained using the following formula: 
         [0000]      Max. Temp(° F.)+Min Temp(° F.)−Insect Base Temp(50° F.)=GDD  2
 
         [0000]    
       
         
               
               
             
               
               
               
               
               
               
             
               
               
               
               
               
               
             
           
               
                   
                 TABLE 1 
               
             
             
               
                   
                   
               
               
                   
                 Column 
               
             
          
           
               
                   
                   
                   
                   
                 4 
                   
               
               
                   
                 1 
                 2 
                 3 
                 −50° F. Base 
                 5 
               
               
                   
                 Max 
                 Min 
                 Average 
                 Temp = 
                 Aggregate 
               
               
                 Date 
                 Temp F. 0   
                 Temp F. 0   
                 Temp F. 0   
                 GDD/day 
                 GDD 
               
               
                   
               
             
          
           
               
                 March 1 
                 28 
                 12 
                 20 
                 0 
                 0 
               
               
                 March 2 
                 42 
                 39 
                 40.5 
                 0 
                 0 
               
               
                 March 3 
                 58 
                 52 
                 55 
                 5 
                 5 
               
               
                 March 4 
                 60 
                 50 
                 55 
                 5 
                 10 
               
               
                 March 5 
                 64 
                 50 
                 57 
                 7 
                 17 
               
               
                 March 6 
                 65 
                 45 
                 55 
                 5 
                 22 
               
               
                 March 7 
                 70 
                 50 
                 ? 
                 ? 
                 ? 
               
               
                   
               
             
          
         
       
     
         [0029]    At process block  420  a deviation value is calculated by subtracting the initial GDD value from the present GDD value. At process block  425 , a future GDD value is calculated for a specific date. The date upon which that GDD value is expected to be reached or exceeded is determined at process block  430 . At decision block  435  a determination is made whether a set of predicted GDD values has been completely created. Typically a set can include values for an entire calendar year. If NO, processing returns to process block  410  for a new date. If YES, processing terminates at END block  440 . 
         [0030]      FIG. 5  is a flow diagram of a method  500  for updating warmth values. Processing begins at START block  505  and proceeds to process block  510  where a determination is made whether new present GDD data is available for the present day. If NO, processing continues to decision block  515  where a determination is made whether a new year&#39;s worth of predictions is needed. If YES, initial GDD values are calculated at process block  520  and processing returns to decision block  510 . 
         [0031]    If the determination made at decision block  510  is YES, processing continues at process block  525  where present GDD values are updated. Processing continues to process block  530  where predicted GDD values for future dates are adjusted according based on results of processing the new GDD data. Processing concludes at END block  540 . Similarly, processing concludes at END block  540  if the determination made at decision block  515  is NO. 
         [0032]      FIG. 6  is a flow diagram of a method  600  for creating a pest treatment plan. Processing begins at START block  605  and continues to process block  610  where a region is selected. Processing continues at process block  615  where a date is selected and then continues to process block  620  where a pest insect is selected. At process block  625  life cycle information for the selected pest is obtained and at process block  630  treatment information for the pest is obtained. Processing continues to process block  635  where a treatment plan is created. Processing of the method terminates at END block  640 . 
         [0033]      FIG. 7  is a flow diagram of a method  700  for predicting plant life cycle events. Processing begins at START block  705  and continues to process block  710  where a region is selected. Processing continues at process block  715  where a date is selected and then continues to process block  720  where a life cycle for a specified plant selected. At process block  725  GDD information for the selected plant is obtained and at process block  730  information for the plant is correlated. Processing continues to process block  735  where life cycle information for the plant is output. Processing of the method terminates at END block  740 . 
         [0034]      FIGS. 8A and 8B  are plan views of prediction curves.  FIG. 8A  shows results of calculation of a prediction curve based on calculating historical GDD values as an arithmetic mean of 3 previous years.  FIG. 8B  shows correlation between the predicted values and measured values for that year. 
         [0035]      FIG. 9  is a perspective view of various computer-readable media. Program information for a computer-executable program to perform the methods discussed above can be stored and retrieved using an optical disk  910 , a hard disk drive  920 , or a flash drive  930 . 
         [0036]      FIG. 10  is a perspective view of a computer  1000 . The computer  1000  can include a processing unit, non-volatile memory, volatile temporary storage, and various peripheral input/output devices. The computer  1000  can be used as a back-end server or as a client. 
         [0037]    The examples of the apparatuses and methods shown in the drawings and described above are only some of numerous other examples that may be made within the scope of the appended claims. It is contemplated that numerous other configurations of the apparatuses and methods disclosed and described above can be created taking advantage of the disclosed approach. In short, it is the applicant&#39;s intention that the scope of the patent issuing from this application be limited only by the scope of the appended claims.