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The summaries of the weather reports for the last 1 days are day 1: nan | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | Given the meteorological reports from the last 1 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | Given the meteorological reports from the last 1 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 1 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | Given the meteorological reports from the last 1 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 2 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 3 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | Given the meteorological reports from the last 2 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 3 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 5 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL, day 5: nan | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL | Given the meteorological reports from the last 5 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 4 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 6 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT SUN APR 06 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 09 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WED/D3... ANOTHER
SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE EAST
BEFORE HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH SFC TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM
OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NORTHERN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
EASTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST... PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN/D7...TROUGH ENERGIES SHOULD
ORGANIZE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND WITH A WAVY NWRN
US/N-CENTRAL US FRONTAL SURGE THAT COMBINE TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONTS...AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH POST-FRONTAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE
ENHANCED SPRING CENTRAL ROCKIES SNOWS.
SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 08 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 12 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
EXITING LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS PRECIP SHIELD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN CANADA AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. A
SECOND SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SRN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE US NRN TIER. PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL THEN
ERN CONUS DAYS 4-6/WED-FRI...COOLING WITH WAVY FRONTAL PASSAGE
THOUGH SWD PENETRATION SHOULD BE MEASURED AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK ASHORE INTO CA AND
INTO THE SWRN US HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS.
SCHICHTEL, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 07 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 11 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
LEAD EASTERN SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF MODEST RAINS EAST
OF 90W... WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OFFSHORE LATE WED/D5... DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE WEST WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PUSH EASTWARD PAST THE ROCKIES AS HEIGHTS
RISE THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. MODEST WARMING WILL PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION NEXT THU-FRI SHOULD
BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS... LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN TIER AS A SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ALSO INTO SOME PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AS THE ENERGY NEARS THE
COAST.
SCHICHTEL, day 6: nan | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE | Given the meteorological reports from the last 6 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 2 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 3 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE | Given the meteorological reports from the last 1 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 3 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 10 2014 - 12Z MON APR 14 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE U.S. NORTHERN TIER AND THE
ZONE BETWEEN I-40 AND I-70 ON THU/FRI. PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY THEN INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OUT WEST...PACIFIC TROUGH
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD WORK
ASHORE INTO CA AND INTO THE SWRN US ALONG WITH LIGHT/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME COOLING TEMPS. BY SUN-MON/D6-7...NORTHERN STREAM
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SHOULD SUPPORT COMBINED BUT ELONGATED
FRONT WITH ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SETS UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. COOLER
AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BURKE | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 4 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2014
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
SPLIT LONGWAVES CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM
RANGE. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS
THAT REFLECTED THE TREND, AVOIDING THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS THAT
WERE ENTIRELY ON ONE SIDE OF THE TRENDING FENCE OR THE OTHER--E.G.
00Z/08 ECMWF, 06Z/08 GFS. UNTIL THE TRENDING RESOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SMALLER-SCALE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. THE LARGER-SCALE EVENT DAYS 5 AND 6 HAS A TREMENDOUS
ENERGETIC POTENTIAL. EVEN WITH MODEST PHASING OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH AND THE POLAR JET, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
OPEN WIDE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES, WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 2 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 4 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT WED APR 09 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 12 2014 - 12Z WED APR 16 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...
THE CLUSTERING HAS TIGHTENED WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH MOST
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SPRAWLING, COMPLEX CYCLONE TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MANY ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
CONVERGE FOR THIS EVENT--THE CLOSED LOW EJECTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY, AN AMPLIFYING POLAR JET, AND TWO DISTINCT INTRUSIONS OF
ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWED THE HYBRID MASS FIELDS OF THE 00Z/09 ECENS
MEAN, WITH A STRONG VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM THE 06Z/09 GEFS MEAN.
THE ONLY CAMP NOT ON BOARD WITH THE WHOLE EVENT IS THE CANADIAN
SUITE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE EVOLUTION
DEPICTED BY THE MANUAL PROGS, SO CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN
MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED WITH A WHOLE MODELING CENTER SUITE OUT
OF SYNC.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THREATS WITH THE BIG SYSTEM ARE MANY, AND
DIFFER WITH TIME. INITIALLY, PARTS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY SNOW, WITH HIGH WINDS
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO AT
THE HEIGHT OF THE UPSLOPE. AS THE EVER-DEEPENING CIRCULATION PULLS
ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS, THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE TAPPED IN
EARNEST, WITH OUTBREAKS OF HEAVY SHOWERS--AND EVENTUALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS--AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DIVIDE SOAKING RAINS TO THE EAST FROM HEAVY SNOWS TO THE
NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHEN THE STORM REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, LATE-SEASON SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 2 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 4 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 3 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 3 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 1 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 1 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 3 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 1 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 3 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 6 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1144 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 14 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 18 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE EAST COAST...
THE IMPORTANT SYNOPTIC DETAILS CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER WITH
EACH NEW DATA CYCLE REGARDING THE SHARP, HIGHLY ENERGETIC FRONTAL
COMPLEX CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RELIED ON THE 00Z/11 ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS AS SYNOPTIC
TEMPLATES, MANUALLY TIGHTENING GRADIENTS AND ADDING LARGER
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER. RELIANCE ON ANY
ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL WOULD EXCLUDE IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
THREATS FOR DIFFERENT AREAS, SO KEPT AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. A
MYRIAD OF HAZARDS ARE INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM--INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH, TORRENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND DAMAGING GRADIENT WINDS. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING
ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND
APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD
SEASON.
THE BLOCKY, SLOW-MOVING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST TWO FOCUSED
WAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE ONCE
THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS HIGH AND DRY.
CISCO, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT THU APR 10 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2014 - 12Z THU APR 17 2014
...MAJOR SPRING STORM FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...
THE CONVERGENCE OF HIGHLY DISPARATE AIRMASSES OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AN EXTREMELY
ENERGETIC COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE SYSTEM. ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX,
WHERE REMARKABLE DISCONTINUITIES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-PLUNGING COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC-REINFORCED DRYLINE. AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS
SHOULD MARK THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A NEW SWATH OF SNOW BLOOMING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SHOULD HIT THE WALL OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ASTRIDE THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY--PRESERVING OR EVEN STRENGTHENING THE
DISCONTINUOUS NATURE OF THE THEN MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED COLD FRONT.
USED RECENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS FOR THE DETAILS OF THIS
SPRAWLING SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THAT MODEL'S
STABILITY FOR THE PAST FEW CYCLES. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/10 ECENS MEAN--AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAEFS
MEAN--AS GUIDANCE FOR THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG FRONT. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE EAST.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LATE-SEASON
SNOWFALL IN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST IF THE WHOLE
SYSTEM GETS HUNG UP JUST OFFSHORE. THE ONLY PART OF THE NATION
SHELTERED FROM THE ENERGETIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHWEST.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER | Given the meteorological reports from the last 6 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 2 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 2 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER | Given the meteorological reports from the last 4 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 2 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 3 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 6 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO, day 7: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1117 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2014
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG, ENERGETIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL
THE GUIDANCE TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE DAY 3, A SLOWING OF
THE WEST-TO-EAST PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
IS MAKING FOR HIGH SPREAD AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BEHAVIOR OF
INDIVIDUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AFTER DAY 5. WITH NO CLUSTERING AMONG
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, RELIED ON
THE HOPEFUL POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 00Z/12 ECENS AND
NAEFS MEANS. THE WEAKER SYSTEMS AND HIGH SPREAD ARE TAKING THEIR
TOLL ON MANUAL PRESSURE, WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND POP FORECASTS,
WITH FAIRLY DILUTE, UNIFORM MASS FIELDS DAYS 6 AND 7. THE SAFEST
THING TO SAY ABOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS
SHELTERED FROM DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVES.
CISCO | Given the meteorological reports from the last 3 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 6 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 5 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014
...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
...
...HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.
THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER | Given the meteorological reports from the last 4 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 5 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 7 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014
...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
...
...HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.
THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 7: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1150 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 16 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014
CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE ECENS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THIS MEAN HAS AFFORDED THE SMOOTHEST TRANSITION TO
THE FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG SHORT-RANGE STORM. THE
HALLMARK OF THE NEW FLOW WILL BE EVER-DIMINISHING WEST-TO-EAST
PROGRESSION OF WAVES ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. MASS FIELD REMNANTS
FROM DAY-THREE SYSTEMS MAY TAKE MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE WASHING
OUT IN THE SHORTWAVE PILEUP. RELYING ON ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONAL
RUN WOULD NEEDLESSLY DRAW ATTENTION TO ONE AREA OF FORCING AT THE
COST OF ANOTHER. IN GENERAL, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST COAST
LOOK WETTEST, WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION--INCLUDING SNOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3 AND 4--OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. THE
SOUTHWEST STILL LOOKS DRY.
CISCO | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 5 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 27 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST MIGRATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINE AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COOL...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO DAY
4.
ACTIVE BUT ISOLATED DRYLINE CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES
PRECEDE THE EJECTION OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN...SHOWERS AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE SIERRA AND CASCADES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DAKOTAS AND EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. PERHAPS A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IN THE
DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXIT
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IE...MORE HOT WINDS AND ANOTHER
DRYLINE EVENT(S) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SIERRA...CASCADES AND GREAT BASIN REMAIN
ACTIVE REGIONS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN END OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MOISTURE-LADEN...BUT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014
...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
...
...HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.
THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.
VOJTESAK, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER | Given the meteorological reports from the last 7 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 5 days |
The summaries of the weather reports for the last 7 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 27 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST MIGRATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINE AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COOL...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO DAY
4.
ACTIVE BUT ISOLATED DRYLINE CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES
PRECEDE THE EJECTION OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN...SHOWERS AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE SIERRA AND CASCADES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DAKOTAS AND EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. PERHAPS A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IN THE
DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXIT
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IE...MORE HOT WINDS AND ANOTHER
DRYLINE EVENT(S) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SIERRA...CASCADES AND GREAT BASIN REMAIN
ACTIVE REGIONS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN END OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MOISTURE-LADEN...BUT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VOJTESAK, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014
...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
...
...HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.
THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.
VOJTESAK, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014
VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z WED APR 23 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
GENERATE AREAS OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN PSBLY INCLUDING SOME POCKETS OF
SNOW IN NRN AREAS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SERN COAST MAY SEE
LINGERING CLOUDS/RNFL DUE TO A SLOW MOVING/CLOSED MID LVL SYSTEM
AND ASSOC SFC WAVE. UPSTREAM THE COMBINATION OF A NRN STREAM
PLAINS SHRTWV AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SW WILL SUPPORT AN AREA
OF RNFL SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND NERN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE LOCALLY HVY.
EXCEPT FOR NRN AREAS MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE WARM TEMPS
SAT-MON WITH SOME 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. AS THE AMPLIFYING
ERN PAC TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE WEST NEXT WEEK EXPECT A COOLING
TREND WHILE THE WARMTH HEADS INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE AREAS FROM
THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF PCPN. MSTR COULD EXTEND FARTHER SWD OVER
THE WEST IF THE TROUGH ALOFT ENDS UP BEING DEEPER/MORE CLOSED AND
SLOWER THAN EVEN THE MOST RECENT 16/00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE.
VOJTESAK/RAUSCH, day 6: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014
VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AS THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY...THE NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH AS THE PATTERN TURNS A BIT
MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY BEING
INFLUENCED BY ABOVE 540-DM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. GIVEN MODEST
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ANOMALIES IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREES F RANGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROF USHERS IN COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD BE QUITE A
WET PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE IF THE
00Z UKMET/ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS VERIFY. THESE MODELS
SHOW AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RUBIN-OSTER, day 7: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1158 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE CO ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
FAVORED TERRAIN. GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
PLACE...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WARMER THICKNESSES PREVAIL. AS
THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES EASTWARD...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...IT MAY BE QUITE
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE...BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN THE COMMON
THEME FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
RUBIN-OSTER | The summaries of the weather reports for the current day and the next 4 days are day 1: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014
VALID 12Z THU APR 24 2014 - 12Z MON APR 28 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE NRN TIER/MS VLY ON THU WILL SPREAD PCPN
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
LIKELY NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACKING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE MS VLY ON THU.
RNFL IS FCST TO TREND LIGHTER AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD LATER IN
THE WEEK... THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING
PART OF THE FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER S-CNTRL PARTS OF THE CNTRL-ERN
STATES. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE SFC/UPR SYSTEM DEVELOPS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PCPN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
EXPECT MSTR TO MOVE INTO THE NWRN STATES AS OF THU WITH AN
INCREASINGLY BROAD SHIELD OF PCPN SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST IN
ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSING THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
MDT-HVY PCPN IS PSBL OVER FAVORED NRN-CNTRL TERRAIN DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. AS HGT FALLS REACH THE PLAINS
EXPECT INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF HVY RNFL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MS VLY FROM SAT NIGHT INTO MON. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER EXACTLY HOW FAR NEWD
RNFL MAY EXTEND CORRESPONDING TO SPREAD WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
THE MOST PERSISTENT/EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS SHOULD BE OF THE
COLD VARIETY OVER THE NRN TIER WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 5-15F
BELOW NORMAL... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAKING IT FEEL COOLER THAN
THAT AT TIMES.
RAUSCH, day 2: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014
VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 27 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST MIGRATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINE AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A COOL...POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO DAY
4.
ACTIVE BUT ISOLATED DRYLINE CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENINGS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES
PRECEDE THE EJECTION OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN...SHOWERS AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOWS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE SIERRA AND CASCADES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...DAKOTAS AND EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. PERHAPS A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IN THE
DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS ITS EXIT
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IE...MORE HOT WINDS AND ANOTHER
DRYLINE EVENT(S) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SIERRA...CASCADES AND GREAT BASIN REMAIN
ACTIVE REGIONS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN END OF THE PACIFIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MOISTURE-LADEN...BUT SHOULD BE BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
VOJTESAK, day 3: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014
...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
...
...HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.
THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.
DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.
VOJTESAK, day 4: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2014 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGIES OVER THE CENTRAL US DAY 3
INTERACT OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 5. MODEST
PCPN/SOME STRONGER CONVECTION IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
EARLY DAY 6.
UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BIG HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...LOWER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
DIVIDE...THEN WELL-ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY
FOCUS MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW
TRACK ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
OFFER A CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WITH
ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE NWRN US IN ABOUT A WEEK.
VOJTESAK/SCHICHTEL, day 5: ...Metadata...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1044 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014
VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z THU APR 24 2014
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE CUTOFF LOW ENTERING THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH TIME ACROSS THE
SIERRA...GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...SUGGESTS A VERY
BROAD AND DEEPENING LAYER OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
SURGING INTO THE MT/WYO PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE DEVELOPING
CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPREADS A BROAD OCCLUSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN BY PERIOD'S END...WITH POCKETS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS A SHALLOW...HIGHLY-MODIFIED CANADIAN
AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IS THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT.
IN THIS ANTICIPATED PATTERN...A DRY/VERY WARM GREAT BASIN-4
CORNERS AIRMASS WILL PERIODICALLY SPILL DOWNWIND AND DOWNHILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED DRYLINE-TYPE...BUT
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG THE MIDDLE THIRD OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE.
DOWNSTREAM...
BY DAY 5-6...VERY WARM TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH SOME HIGHS APPROACHING LEVELS THAT WILL BE 15F-20F ABOVE
NORMAL.
DAY 4-5...THE MULTI-WAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY...FEATURES A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL OK/TX PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
AND GA/NE FL COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER NEW ENGLAND...PRIOR
TO THE WARMUP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DAY 6.
VOJTESAK | Given the meteorological reports from the last 7 days, generate meteorological reports for the current day and the next 4 days |
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