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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
pq2ApnddSd
|
will-gggong-be-on-a-usaco-platinum
|
will gg_gong be on a usaco platinum leadeboard this season?
| null | 1,739,827,142,699
| 1,743,490,740,000
| 1,744,569,494,139
|
NO
| 0.114924
| 1,285.130862
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
sqc7dzpurw
|
android-llm-backed-keyboard-availab
|
Android LLM backed keyboard available by end 2024
| null | 1,725,194,312,452
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,730,658,682
|
NO
| 0.278432
| 615
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
CEOchdsOpl
|
in-kyle-pauls-recreation-of-mark-ro
|
In Kyle Paul's recreation of Mark Rober's test, will Tesla FSD crash into a Looney Toons poster wall in the road?
| null | 1,742,308,031,529
| 1,742,565,683,027
| 1,742,565,683,027
|
NO
| 0.312788
| 144.145067
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
56O0cz8C66
|
will-my-car-insurance-premium-incre
|
Will my car insurance premium increase more than 30%? (After claiming)
| null | 1,731,386,339,573
| 1,736,216,134,574
| 1,736,216,134,574
|
NO
| 0.315101
| 516
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
I2UpC6qZ9h
|
was-brad-garlinghouse-at-the-inaugu
|
Was Brad Garlinghouse at the inauguration?
| null | 1,737,398,034,646
| 1,737,491,046,354
| 1,737,491,046,354
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0LSNQSpghz
|
biden-pardons-fauci
|
Biden pardons Fauci?
| null | 1,733,194,003,471
| 1,737,405,402,979
| 1,737,405,402,979
|
YES
| 0.999882
| 321,633.488791
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
ONSO2p8uz2
|
will-iran-hit-israel-within-10-mont
|
Will Iran hit Israel within 10 months of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,738,372,674,947
| 1,741,463,673,486
| 1,741,463,673,486
|
NO
| 0.156142
| 191.598183
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
hUyR82c0gc
|
will-feiningforgm-hit-expert-in-1-c-yAcRhn5LhE
|
Will feining_for_gm hit expert in 1 CF contest
| null | 1,747,108,921,034
| 1,748,103,200,112
| 1,748,103,200,112
|
NO
| 0.675545
| 4,957.176646
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
QdtnNAhllI
|
will-this-market-get-more-traders-t
|
Will this market get more traders than a random integer between 0 and 99 inclusive?
| null | 1,739,234,542,348
| 1,741,838,340,000
| 1,741,893,655,021
|
NO
| 0.375383
| 2,782.448238
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
YOM6G0pF8H628Wu7lx5M
|
does-manifold-think-the-covid19-shu
|
Does Manifold think the Covid-19 shutdown worth it?
| null | 1,715,706,504,827
| 1,735,711,140,000
| 1,735,711,363,457
|
YES
| 0.946938
| 344.353877
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
qUUy58zSEu
|
will-270-of-manifold-respondents-ag
|
Will >= 27.0% of Manifold respondents agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth in the January 2025 poll?
| null | 1,737,119,240,345
| 1,738,299,540,000
| 1,738,324,563,233
|
NO
| 0.026775
| 7,903.231669
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
I6t6dhPCys
|
bitcoin-hits-100k-1-month-into-trum
|
Bitcoin hits $100k, 1 month into Trump's Second Term
| null | 1,733,789,161,206
| 1,738,081,087,926
| 1,738,081,087,926
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,583.535992
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QLnqs8OQZz
|
trump-makes-remote-appearance-at-bi
|
Trump makes remote appearance at Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas?
| null | 1,748,422,480,138
| 1,748,473,140,000
| 1,748,528,506,878
|
NO
| 0.226116
| 85
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tI9t2CLQyE
|
will-instagram-stop-sending-me-tren
|
Will Instagram stop sending me “Trending” notifications in a week?
| null | 1,744,998,942,401
| 1,745,689,980,000
| 1,745,782,753,906
|
YES
| 0.221909
| 1,330.408427
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
hEcLAu9lEu
|
will-travis-kelce-propose-to-taylor-RC6CZREQRt
|
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift during Superbowl LIX?
| null | 1,738,274,269,818
| 1,739,159,306,951
| 1,739,159,306,951
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,075.062587
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
6EyzL6zEpd
|
khalil-rountree-beats-jamall-hill-a
|
Khalil Rountree Beats Jamall Hill at UFC Fight Night in Baku
| null | 1,750,495,227,748
| 1,750,547,787,607
| 1,750,547,787,607
|
YES
| 0.68
| 339.959433
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
3uyv5qt9n3
|
will-kirill-shevchenko-be-banned-fr
|
Will Kirill Shevchenko be banned from FIDE for six months or more by the end of 2025?
| null | 1,728,934,864,058
| 1,746,982,063,593
| 1,746,982,063,593
|
YES
| 0.989131
| 8,888.086974
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
NldyN2cn5d
|
who-will-win-the-2025-wisconsin-sta
|
Will the more liberal/Democratic side win the 2025 Wisconsin state supreme court election?
| null | 1,738,441,733,611
| 1,743,564,288,438
| 1,743,564,288,438
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,645.428585
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2v8xt9s4nq
|
will-ana-kasparian-leave-tyt-by-the
|
Will Ana Kasparian leave TYT by the end of June 2025?
| null | 1,727,927,606,590
| 1,751,327,945,556
| 1,751,327,945,556
|
NO
| 0.01
| 933.839223
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
l096guySPz
|
will-gpt45-be-able-to-draw-an-accur
|
Will GPT-4.5 be able to draw an accurate Xbox controller?
| null | 1,740,513,955,842
| 1,741,307,412,221
| 1,741,307,412,221
|
NO
| 0.090189
| 29,562.844839
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
sI2sSI89cz
|
pope-francis-reelected-for-a-second
|
Pope Francis re-elected for a second term?
| null | 1,745,752,326,083
| 1,746,975,951,530
| 1,746,975,951,530
|
NO
| 0.01
| 932.780121
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
9uqzmkegus
|
will-the-minnesota-timberwolves-win-49dv06ah5a
|
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more games than the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024-2025 NBA regular season?
| null | 1,727,188,100,823
| 1,744,055,690,775
| 1,744,055,690,775
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,573.946522
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
LI5hO69LEI
|
trump-admin-official-held-in-contem
|
Trump admin official held in contempt before end of June?
| null | 1,744,831,625,748
| 1,751,327,940,000
| 1,751,337,638,058
|
NO
| 0.024719
| 14,132.167797
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
tN996z8UcN
|
will-ford-q1-2025-gross-profit-exce
|
Will Ford Q1, 2025 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's
| null | 1,731,412,179,160
| 1,746,734,340,000
| 1,746,768,136,748
|
YES
| 0.991704
| 1,135.557259
|
Finance
|
Corporate Finance
|
ysczPR9su8
|
will-wti-crude-hit-100-per-barrel-w
|
Will WTI crude hit $100 per barrel within the month of February 2025?
| null | 1,738,373,537,112
| 1,740,805,140,000
| 1,741,739,998,059
|
NO
| 0.010194
| 941.481194
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
yxi24wbw5m
|
will-davi-alcolumbre-uniaoap-be-ele
|
Will Davi Alcolumbre (UNIÃO-AP) be elected President of the Brazilian Senate for the 2025-2026 term?
| null | 1,720,800,674,342
| 1,738,465,140,000
| 1,738,584,822,661
|
YES
| 0.948565
| 420
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
SPcyCsg9O2
|
aoc-confirmed-pregnant-by-jan-6th
|
AOC confirmed pregnant by Jan 6th? 👶 🇺🇸
| null | 1,731,440,859,829
| 1,736,137,582,233
| 1,736,137,582,233
|
NO
| 0.009998
| 361,222.467138
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
SyERNRPh0q
|
will-i-eat-9-hot-dogs-during-the-cu
|
Will I eat 9 hot dogs during the cubs game
| null | 1,749,832,491,006
| 1,749,846,268,104
| 1,749,846,268,104
|
YES
| 0.979132
| 2,237.476178
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
9IcLEZSCUR
|
will-the-10-year-treasury-yield-at-CllZ5nS5c0
|
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 3/31/2025 be 4.5% or higher?
| null | 1,736,528,601,293
| 1,743,479,940,000
| 1,743,509,164,116
|
NO
| 0.01
| 982.106807
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
dhIpl8N5Rc
|
will-bitcoin-surpass-110000-by-the-09Zq2As9Aq
|
Will bitcoin surpass $110,000 by the end of March 2025?
| null | 1,739,806,742,636
| 1,743,506,727,899
| 1,743,506,727,899
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,902.858351
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
eJaszkCfuFMEEiuKDZPK
|
will-an-aipiloted-fighter-jet-of-us
|
Will an AI-piloted Fighter Jet of US origin see combat in Ukraine before March 2025?
| null | 1,715,029,930,483
| 1,740,787,140,000
| 1,740,788,141,174
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,453.484354
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
lf5ws4bxwtDMPc4gc9tP
|
will-the-adl-have-to-issue-a-statem
|
Will the ADL issue a statement against Kyrie Irving by 12/31/2024?
| null | 1,716,427,863,437
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,857,271,235
|
NO
| 0.026776
| 5,244
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
NAgQ5O6Lt6
|
will-elon-trump-have-a-major-fallin-9CzOs8UUh9
|
Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out by EoY 2025?
| null | 1,740,507,945,370
| 1,749,566,507,688
| 1,749,566,507,688
|
YES
| 0.98266
| 15,461.84379
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
SAIehGxbCln8F9N37J1k
|
will-the-doj-charge-tesla-executive
|
Will the DOJ charge Tesla executives with wire fraud or securities fraud?
| null | 1,715,203,216,618
| 1,746,766,740,000
| 1,746,814,305,870
|
NO
| 0.01
| 950.896293
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
I8UIShSLPh
|
will-i-run-12-times-and-jogwalk-24
|
Will I run 12+ times and jog/walk 24+ times (32+ hours total) in April?
| null | 1,743,382,623,381
| 1,745,082,886,516
| 1,745,082,886,516
|
NO
| 0.778399
| 130
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
6uzRPu2lZ6
|
mavs-trade-number-1-pick
|
NBA Draft - Mavericks trade number 1 pick?
| null | 1,747,136,425,107
| 1,750,901,940,000
| 1,750,964,708,172
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,076.742038
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
2BAH7MUvyu2FO43UNj9g
|
will-one-of-the-top-10-highest-gros
|
Will one of the top 10 highest grossing movies of 2024 be from China?
| null | 1,715,658,883,630
| 1,735,723,767,039
| 1,735,723,767,039
|
YES
| 0.988426
| 1,107.133173
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
l259vlalw3
|
will-a-state-in-the-usa-besides-ban-5ud39o7mro
|
Will a state in the USA ban Uber And/or Lyft outright for all counties and cities by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,718,999,011,501
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,780,864,932
|
NO
| 0.188362
| 110
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
3fxx2v9f8l
|
will-the-save-saving-on-a-valuable
|
Will the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) student loan repayment plan be cancelled by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,723,451,094,286
| 1,735,768,740,000
| 1,748,247,564,925
|
NO
| 0.02232
| 562
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
NzQdush9h6
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-g5glIunUnh
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 25than it closed on Mar 24?
| null | 1,742,909,602,757
| 1,742,932,815,133
| 1,742,932,815,133
|
YES
| 0.99
| 35,380.237782
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
xgtbig43dz
|
will-elon-musks-spacex-land-anythin
|
Will Elon Musk's SpaceX Land Anything Fully Functional According on Mars during 2025?
| null | 1,728,356,678,654
| 1,748,788,140,000
| 1,749,371,083,021
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
bRKNXg3f0EdzV2SlShQh
|
will-the-chinese-army-will-launch-a
|
Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?
| null | 1,716,594,389,393
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,736,741,035,304
|
NO
| 0.018351
| 96,012.514653
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
tpsUzI6tQg
|
minecraft-speedrun-sub-7-in-1161-in
|
Minecraft Speedrun sub 7 in 1.16.1 in 2025?
| null | 1,748,932,459,165
| 1,749,678,066,088
| 1,749,678,066,088
|
YES
| 0.987382
| 9,797.202307
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
g6uuuP0LdR
|
will-i-lift-weights-today-EhhtRhuOPZ
|
Will I lift weights today?
| null | 1,738,129,842,555
| 1,738,213,140,000
| 1,738,218,309,527
|
NO
| 0.45
| 53.696345
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
7r2jxweq58
|
can-an-llm-beat-me-in-chess
|
Can an LLM beat me in chess?
| null | 1,726,758,775,597
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,736,123,981,399
|
NO
| 0.10361
| 283.772445
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
bwbbj21uec
|
will-bryce-young-finish-in-the-top
|
Will Bryce Young finish in the top 20 in QBR in 2024?
| null | 1,722,522,271,124
| 1,739,336,340,000
| 1,739,594,077,098
|
YES
| 0.906904
| 22,362.294324
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
pC6CItSCRc
|
how-to-survive-the-broligarchy-post
|
"How to survive the broligarchy" posting regularly in February 2026
| null | 1,747,967,928,041
| 1,751,777,242,887
| 1,751,777,242,887
|
NO
| 0.635577
| 244.518572
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
1citkm8jtr
|
will-yoyo-yuan-and-barton-rhodes-en
|
Will Yoyo Yuan and Barton Rhodes end up dating?
| null | 1,724,588,796,918
| 1,741,884,534,459
| 1,741,884,534,459
|
NO
| 0.069174
| 270
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
qPrPNakJBq
|
will-bayesian-networks-arent-necess
|
Will "Bayesian Networks Aren't Necessarily Causal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,735,527,130,900
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,963,429,817
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
gZI2lA6Zcc
|
mcdonalds-corp-makes-an-official-st
|
McDonald's Corp makes an official statement about their ice cream machines by 2/1/2025
| null | 1,730,929,238,237
| 1,738,475,940,000
| 1,746,115,674,348
|
NO
| 0.010499
| 1,017.945428
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
ra03enxo4p
|
will-sam-darnold-start-10-or-more-g
|
Will Sam Darnold start 10 or more games at QB in 2024?
| null | 1,719,628,376,379
| 1,737,521,940,000
| 1,737,568,346,732
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,414.149184
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
tNSNIl8tEd
|
will-trump-impose-any-tariffs-at-or
|
Will Trump impose any tariffs at or above 25% on imports from Mexico before the end of 2025?
| null | 1,733,876,236,737
| 1,738,458,053,679
| 1,738,458,053,679
|
YES
| 0.827086
| 448.866047
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
NEnS25husu
|
will-i-get-top-10-on-hmmt
|
Will I get top 10 on HMMT?
| null | 1,739,647,555,056
| 1,739,665,204,165
| 1,739,665,204,165
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,178.4458
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
u1zyv7c8ep
|
will-the-manifold-experience-get-wo
|
Will the Manifold experience get worse after the US election, according to a poll taken 3 months after the US election?
| null | 1,727,889,280,242
| 1,738,821,540,000
| 1,739,427,027,635
|
NO
| 0.102467
| 1,470.990619
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
iwp4iq2jlh
|
will-i-be-on-the-2025-us-ipho-team-6v3py1zkjf
|
Will I be on the 2025 US IPhO Team?
| null | 1,728,192,458,419
| 1,749,052,771,223
| 1,749,052,771,223
|
NO
| 0.010486
| 1,981.040848
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
9IZRdRN6zP
|
will-i-believe-tpot-is-publicly-per
|
Will I believe TPOT is publicly perceived as an extremist group by March 1st, 2025
| null | 1,733,973,418,191
| 1,740,873,600,000
| 1,740,878,612,170
|
NO
| 0.074291
| 2,534
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
4d3c2fe60v
|
will-the-number-of-monthly-active-u
|
Will the number of monthly active users on Manifold drop between November 30th, 2024 and December 31st, 2024?
| null | 1,721,606,258,416
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,736,192,713,745
|
YES
| 0.96944
| 5,380.959762
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
bczq099bmu
|
will-i-make-both-usapho-or-the-fide
|
Will I make both USApHO and the FIDE IM title before the summer of 2025?
| null | 1,719,366,605,389
| 1,750,478,340,000
| 1,750,916,606,436
|
NO
| 0.26338
| 976
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
QUPGBrfssMEx0dCOl2he
|
will-ai-4-introducing-gpt4-make-the
|
Will "AI #4: Introducing GPT-4" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,716,012,979,858
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,305,381,279
|
NO
| 0.135043
| 110
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
6n9CzCcgPl
|
will-a-rider-who-starts-the-first-s
|
Will a rider who starts the first stage of the 2025 Tour de France fail to finish the stage?
| null | 1,751,440,916,556
| 1,751,709,600,000
| 1,751,726,751,121
|
YES
| 0.677572
| 1,104.386276
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
qE5qCyt9y2
|
champions-league-will-psg-advance-a
|
Champions League: Will PSG advance against Aston Villa?
| null | 1,742,768,869,416
| 1,744,743,600,000
| 1,744,751,327,911
|
YES
| 0.924769
| 1,574.095627
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
gS8uhSIEp9
|
will-i-qualify-for-usajmo-with-a-23
|
Will I qualify for USAJMO with a 231.5 10A+I index?
| null | 1,740,078,104,609
| 1,741,665,540,000
| 1,744,046,587,784
|
NO
| 0.01
| 957.592345
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
p2ndk376w3
|
will-invulnerable-incomplete-prefer
|
Will "Invulnerable Incomplete Preferences:
A Forma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,725,027,343,182
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,590,148
|
NO
| 0.10324
| 350
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
EnP5SEzUcd
|
will-barca-win-against-real-betis
|
Will Barca win against Real Betis?
| null | 1,743,815,527,134
| 1,743,897,540,000
| 1,743,902,179,540
|
NO
| 0.040588
| 577.068499
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
9c0QgcAZ9O
|
will-i-like-talking-to-claude-37-mo
|
Will I like talking to Claude 3.7 more than talking to Claude 3.6?
| null | 1,740,465,397,952
| 1,741,075,140,000
| 1,741,077,664,543
|
NO
| 0.359567
| 405.670417
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk
|
president-joe-biden-involved-in-an-x7cg74qn52
|
President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024?
| null | 1,717,051,043,546
| 1,735,660,740,000
| 1,737,388,998,644
|
NO
| 0.018045
| 8,998.505562
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
gqP00y5Oy2
|
will-amazon-amzn-close-higher-on-fe
|
Will Amazon (AMZN) close higher on Feb 7th, 2025 than it did on Jan 31st, 2025
| null | 1,738,506,840,300
| 1,738,967,415,157
| 1,738,967,415,157
|
NO
| 0.28
| 1,004.752163
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
62Z005Uz5N
|
will-a-new-holiday-be-established-b
|
Will A new Holiday be established by the end of April 2025? Trump Adding Holidays?
| null | 1,740,702,090,610
| 1,746,075,540,000
| 1,746,124,726,316
|
NO
| 0.051385
| 370
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
UyuZpIzR9g
|
at-least-5-of-federal-workers-accep
|
At least 5% of federal workers accept Trump administration buyout offer by February 6th 2025
| null | 1,738,213,632,713
| 1,738,886,400,000
| 1,739,466,276,457
|
NO
| 0.054675
| 9,764.49607
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
2u51nzx2ay
|
will-any-of-azncga-states-that-neve
|
Will any of AZ/NC/GA vote more democratic than any of the "blue wall" states in 2024?
| null | 1,724,955,119,885
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,744,416,095,145
|
NO
| 0.025
| 1,124.640588
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
NLLE6hppp0
|
will-china-allow-westerners-to-cont
|
Will China allow westerners to continue interacting with Chinese on Xiaohongshu/RedNote?
| null | 1,736,912,471,460
| 1,741,957,140,000
| 1,742,520,701,178
|
YES
| 0.963842
| 2,522.444483
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
9swh92ekd7
|
will-hungary-receive-oil-from-lukoi
|
Will Hungary receive oil from Lukoil through Ukraine on 2025-01-01?
| null | 1,721,903,392,242
| 1,735,772,340,000
| 1,736,254,629,957
|
YES
| 0.92773
| 303
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
zuPLOLSnly
|
will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-l9tn8tyE90
|
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q2 2025?
| null | 1,743,493,405,774
| 1,751,327,940,000
| 1,751,474,906,556
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,003.69235
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
dAspnCUsNC
|
will-bitcoin-surpass-95000-by-the-e
|
Will bitcoin surpass $95,000 by the end of March 2025?
| null | 1,741,001,601,207
| 1,743,506,701,550
| 1,743,506,701,550
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,900.04537
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
tSmI97iXzTCHLh61JPTs
|
will-ross-ulbricht-be-pardoned-or-h
|
Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?
| null | 1,716,783,511,071
| 1,737,561,797,030
| 1,737,561,797,030
|
YES
| 0.998972
| 170,564.652869
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
AhQLzRl29O
|
will-the-nintendo-switch-2-or-other-ZtqdqN0hAn
|
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed before end of year?
| null | 1,730,631,509,871
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,736,036,311
|
NO
| 0.01
| 15,092.715663
|
Technology
|
Gaming
|
p4jeidt2zp
|
will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-inter-w4fg7958f3
|
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q4 2024?
| null | 1,727,801,454,211
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,721,531,471
|
NO
| 0.057463
| 504.999995
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
UUpg8Phtgz
|
will-the-price-of-eggs-go-up-in-tru
|
Will the price of eggs go up in Trump's first month?
| null | 1,731,692,775,418
| 1,741,873,341,993
| 1,741,873,341,993
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,383.50301
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
dytcgUAIpQ
|
i-win-ten-consecutive-matches-of-ma
|
Will I win ten consecutive matches of Magic before 2028?
| null | 1,744,674,744,990
| 1,746,758,040,475
| 1,746,758,040,475
|
YES
| 0.43595
| 405
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
5hdESARgtz
|
us-nonfarm-payroll-higher-in-may-20
|
US non-farm payroll higher in May 2025 than April 2025?
| null | 1,746,200,020,428
| 1,749,213,221,846
| 1,749,213,221,846
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,085.874371
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
EhZqc0qqyh
|
will-there-be-another-major-plane-a
|
Will there be another major plane accident before the weekend arrives.
| null | 1,739,986,521,641
| 1,740,073,396,372
| 1,740,073,396,372
|
YES
| 0.988961
| 1,015
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
tnpp22lZc5
|
will-former-doge-staffer-marko-elez
|
Will former DOGE staffer Marko Elez be back in the US Govt by end of 2025?
| null | 1,738,896,202,714
| 1,740,701,760,000
| 1,741,607,765,962
|
YES
| 0.955411
| 10,326.350287
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
ZRsz2tRC2A
|
assassins-creed-shadows-achieves-80
|
Assassin's Creed Shadows achieves 80+ Metacritic score by March 1st 2025
| null | 1,735,829,504,654
| 1,740,787,200,000
| 1,741,272,889,377
|
NO
| 0.187454
| 135
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
GtvRHgf3Ua6K61fMNLk9
|
will-anyone-be-successfully-sued-in
|
Will anyone be successfully sued in Texas for having an abortion in another state before 2025?
| null | 1,714,751,103,836
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,740,376,607
|
NO
| 0.01
| 938.493425
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
0sULs82R29
|
will-bluesky-have-70-million-or-mor
|
Will Bluesky have 70 million or more users at the end of 2024?
| null | 1,731,741,525,095
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,877,434,807
|
NO
| 0.010014
| 1,003.000007
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
4fJOJKtgd2PyusFPrLtw
|
will-a-soldier-from-a-nato-country
|
Will a soldier from a NATO country be confirmed killed in action inside Ukraine during 2024?
| null | 1,715,927,995,890
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,739,956,294,964
|
NO
| 0.019112
| 8,492.766715
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
czd6s5Ayzs
|
will-i-be-able-to-track-my-youtube
|
Will I be able to track my youtube consumption for a week?
| null | 1,744,279,695,139
| 1,744,636,456,196
| 1,744,636,456,196
|
NO
| 0.823097
| 379.333011
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
8npdLUAcQZ
|
will-benthams-bulldog-write-a-follo
|
Will Bentham’s Bulldog write a follow-up post to “Don’t Eat Honey” before July 31, 2025?
| null | 1,751,623,987,967
| 1,751,691,428,369
| 1,751,691,428,369
|
YES
| 0.989673
| 1,864
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
8syen48a46
|
will-dan-clancey-still-be-ceo-of-tw--cash
|
Will Dan Clancy still be CEO of Twitch at the end of 2024?
| null | 1,729,695,622,566
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,761,690,413
|
YES
| 0.984979
| 1,699.007932
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
UC9pu9cAhp
|
will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP
|
Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win?
| null | 1,737,943,197,845
| 1,739,157,678,861
| 1,739,157,678,861
|
YES
| 0.995645
| 713,956.211245
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
EEZApCAUUL
|
will-primetime-ratings-for-fox-news
|
Will Primetime ratings for Fox News during week of February 10 exceed the combined primetime ratings of CNN and MSNBC?
| null | 1,737,079,780,667
| 1,740,113,940,000
| 1,740,139,594,462
|
YES
| 0.75
| 73.205081
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
g61ht9kslw
|
will-the-nyc-rat-index-be-65-or-hig
|
Will the NYC Rat Index be 65 or higher at the end of 2024?
| null | 1,720,408,349,351
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,858,536
|
NO
| 0.021374
| 600
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
vhyeoply3z
|
will-steamos-40-come-out-by-the-end
|
Will SteamOS 4.0 come out by the end of March 2025?
| null | 1,723,738,863,154
| 1,743,544,740,000
| 1,743,684,143,746
|
NO
| 0.01
| 914.968262
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
nEpRuzqttR
|
will-a-forbes-30-under-30-winner-of
|
Will a Forbes 30 Under 30 winner of any vintage be arrested before June 1?
| null | 1,737,080,456,183
| 1,748,796,326,538
| 1,748,796,326,538
|
NO
| 0.206044
| 205
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tdqtntsLqO
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-8INN68q6lz
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1138 and 1139?
| null | 1,737,904,780,722
| 1,738,509,474,520
| 1,738,509,477,447
|
NO
| 0.202491
| 12,796.297178
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
izhq9jq94f
|
will-bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggress-5sfazvokkt
|
Will "Bing Chat is blatantly, aggressively misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,723,346,832,744
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,305,373,260
|
YES
| 0.140683
| 525.442131
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
5tsOcdZ8UZ
|
will-manifold-add-back-1-sweepcash
|
Will Manifold add back <1 Sweepcash trades in 2024?
| null | 1,730,250,517,767
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,745,535,974
|
NO
| 0.01
| 904.987435
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
5Zp9PhC8En
|
ncaa-basketball-march-madness-round
|
NCAA Basketball 🏀 March Madness Round 1: Will BOTH Florida(v. Norfolk St) AND Houston (v.SIU Edwardsville) win by 10+?
| null | 1,742,218,669,740
| 1,742,605,143,819
| 1,742,605,143,819
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,166.015039
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
4f09j6om6x
|
will-black-friday-sales-in-2024-be
|
Will Black Friday sales in 2024 be greater than 2023
| null | 1,724,272,033,343
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,745,333,104
|
YES
| 0.873975
| 165
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
S0g6CIlNpQ
|
this-question-has-15-bets-by-may-22
|
This question has 15+ bets by May 22?
| null | 1,747,839,942,947
| 1,747,915,617,012
| 1,747,915,639,825
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,602.495032
|
SPORTS
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
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