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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
026dluCPOy
|
at-8-pm-et-on-the-12th-will-the-mar
|
“At 8 PM ET on the 12th, will the market’s assessed probability (in %) be an even number?”
| null | 1,736,633,871,407
| 1,736,640,710,724
| 1,736,640,710,724
|
YES
| 0.659925
| 175.997471
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QznzPgInp5
|
will-alexander-vindman-sue-elon-mus
|
Will Alexander Vindman sue Elon Musk for defamation by the end of May 2025?
| null | 1,733,035,241,144
| 1,748,750,340,000
| 1,748,751,439,934
|
NO
| 0.01
| 956.629207
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6RylyUlCSg
|
will-i-get-honorable-mention-on-usa
|
Will I get Honorable Mention on USAJMO 2025?
| null | 1,741,906,214,023
| 1,742,367,540,000
| 1,745,597,850,215
|
YES
| 0.692308
| 50
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
90Olqqu2gz
|
will-ishiba-be-prime-minister-of-ja
|
Will Ishiba be Prime Minister of Japan by the End of Golden Week 2025?
| null | 1,732,717,698,907
| 1,746,543,540,000
| 1,746,831,672,321
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,165.620993
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
L6d5utRls9
|
will-a-chinese-ai-developer-announc
|
Will a Chinese AI developer announce a model rivaling o3 performance by February 2025?
| null | 1,734,731,247,091
| 1,738,483,140,000
| 1,738,483,541,299
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,928.069067
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
F5I6QSkRRZtL4Blo6zxG
|
will-there-be-a-ussaudi-arabia-join
|
Will there be a US-Saudi Arabia joint defense bill in 2024?
| null | 1,714,885,736,811
| 1,735,804,740,000
| 1,735,805,472,578
|
NO
| 0.030786
| 498
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
TZZPbIdWv2Jq1m8ReCWm
|
will-there-are-no-coherence-theorem
|
Will "There are no coherence theorems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,716,722,334,112
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,457,814
|
NO
| 0.235078
| 105
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
2af0dzfwmw
|
will-nvidia-nvda-end-33-at-or-above
|
Will Nvidia NVDA end 3/3 at or above $333 USD per share?
| null | 1,719,151,536,489
| 1,741,064,340,000
| 1,741,316,667,877
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,206.710066
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
qc5Ngul5Ll
|
clean-swiftie-special-will-the-chie
|
["Clean" Swiftie Special] Will the Chiefs win all four quarters?
| null | 1,738,968,289,215
| 1,739,143,740,000
| 1,739,150,271,900
|
NO
| 0.051533
| 13,628.005179
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
2LHbwe1tWYALUURjszm8
|
will-google-alphabet-announce-plans
|
Will Google (Alphabet) announce plans to acquire Hubspot in 2024?
| null | 1,715,262,258,074
| 1,735,709,313,912
| 1,735,709,313,912
|
NO
| 0.059247
| 494.901465
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
QgZCLZZQtl
|
merab-dvalishvili-submits-sean-omal
|
Merab Dvalishvili submits Sean O’Malley at UFC 316?
| null | 1,748,296,702,263
| 1,749,364,895,560
| 1,749,364,895,560
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,272.006264
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
LsOCppQn8U
|
this-market-resolves-to-min5x-100-w
|
This market resolves to min(5x, 100)%, where x is the number of traders
| null | 1,733,870,882,393
| 1,735,878,461,888
| 1,735,878,461,888
|
YES
| 0.973022
| 1,276.349324
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
l8NP9t6Agh
|
will-iran-use-iraq-to-stage-an-atta
|
Will Iran use Iraq to stage an attack on Israel before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,730,433,624,850
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,720,963,428
|
NO
| 0.034372
| 4,658.984343
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
0O9NCNSUpC
|
will-o4mini-beat-o3-in-any-benchmar
|
Will o4-mini beat o3 in any benchmark reported by OpenAI?
| null | 1,744,817,428,288
| 1,744,829,553,918
| 1,744,829,553,918
|
YES
| 0.99
| 939.236022
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
8LP0ll2Uz5
|
will-houthis-escalate-their-activit
|
Will houthis 🇾🇪 escalate their activities again before EOY 2025?
| null | 1,739,358,608,099
| 1,746,725,414,369
| 1,747,164,819,388
|
YES
| 0.984323
| 1,440.951731
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
02n9uqqCSl
|
will-tulsi-gabbard-be-confirmed-as
|
Will Tulsi Gabbard be confirmed as Intelligence Director?
| null | 1,731,559,221,810
| 1,739,389,994,725
| 1,739,389,994,725
|
YES
| 0.991063
| 503,513.798752
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
9zc8clu8IR
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-unIhzZnLC6
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 14 than it closed on Mar 13?
| null | 1,741,956,222,866
| 1,741,983,483,828
| 1,741,983,483,828
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,633.409763
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
90IL6q6tyh
|
david-kisses-someone-while-visiting
|
David kisses someone while visiting the Bay?
| null | 1,743,192,449,924
| 1,744,329,540,000
| 1,744,556,685,698
|
NO
| 0.189606
| 1,590.762176
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
ha8siwsis8
|
will-michel-barnier-be-the-primer-m
|
Will Michel Barnier be the prime minister of France on Jan 1st 2025?
| null | 1,725,536,609,166
| 1,735,772,340,000
| 1,735,801,143,370
|
NO
| 0.01
| 60,710.597818
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
y69L5u9dzz
|
will-i-obtain-a-switch-2-before-the
|
Will I obtain a Switch 2 before the end of the year?
| null | 1,748,549,453,676
| 1,751,390,359,976
| 1,751,390,359,976
|
YES
| 0.964553
| 686.856871
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
kuqzmhm88u
|
if-trump-wins-will-harris-publicly
|
If Trump wins, will Harris publicly deny the official 2024 election results?
| null | 1,723,134,410,625
| 1,737,435,540,000
| 1,738,480,628,990
|
NO
| 0.011411
| 1,276
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
zlhA9A6n2S
|
daily-coinflip-EcL2pI0EP2
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,747,113,107,731
| 1,747,281,540,000
| 1,747,291,007,876
|
YES
| 0.5
| 2,824.696325
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
cU95y5Ot2L
|
will-eric-weinstein-be-appointed-to
|
Will Eric Weinstein be appointed to any cabinet or federal position by Trump's administration by the end of Feb 2025?
| null | 1,731,536,511,571
| 1,740,805,140,000
| 1,740,805,261,500
|
NO
| 0.01
| 906.987433
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Z8uszP99nn
|
will-cnn-or-foxnews-report-hamas-re
|
Will cnn or foxnews report "Hamas recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost" (Blinken)?
| null | 1,737,051,276,339
| 1,737,428,001,412
| 1,737,428,001,412
|
YES
| 0.36
| 70
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
5uvzuytwcn
|
will-ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up
|
Will "UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,719,947,613,863
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,443,852
|
NO
| 0.09
| 591.788712
|
Books & Literature
|
Books & Literature
|
lsplIEPgdn
|
will-o3-openai-model-be-released-be
|
Will o3 (OpenAI model) be released before March 2025?
| null | 1,738,120,100,741
| 1,740,891,540,000
| 1,740,965,836,933
|
NO
| 0.02257
| 23,133.470456
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
RlIy5CN29Z
|
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-QR0UyPOhyA
|
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 189 and 190?
| null | 1,735,678,113,878
| 1,736,280,971,205
| 1,736,280,975,476
|
NO
| 0.386458
| 260
|
ENTERTAINMENT
|
Movies & Television
|
g555cQquNc
|
will-the-assassin-of-the-minnesota-RS2hugEydg
|
Will the assassin of the Minnesota lawmakers be apprehended alive?
| null | 1,749,914,909,572
| 1,750,620,464,809
| 1,750,620,464,809
|
YES
| 0.991909
| 1,474.228375
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
sR5qSZQ6pI
|
blueskys-daily-active-us-users-exce
|
Bluesky's daily active users exceed 25% of X's daily active users by June 2025
| null | 1,733,971,728,165
| 1,748,736,000,000
| 1,748,788,770,781
|
NO
| 0.06169
| 290
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
u48ZpYkDH1JZRhBRfWzs
|
will-cheese-ball-man-return-in-2024
|
Will Cheese Ball Man return in 2024?
| null | 1,715,025,731,938
| 1,735,793,940,000
| 1,739,315,198,007
|
YES
| 0.917384
| 259.236661
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
c4vt1i7rnp
|
will-rfk-be-allowed-to-participate
|
Will RFK be allowed to participate in any presidential debate alongside Trump or Harris? (2024)
| null | 1,721,776,560,497
| 1,735,793,940,000
| 1,735,795,202,026
|
NO
| 0.00906
| 1,413.835087
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
AzgIhs665d
|
wip-will-the-fertility-crisis-becom
|
[WIP] Will the fertility crisis become an issue for blue tribe before July?
| null | 1,746,206,211,958
| 1,751,380,440,000
| 1,751,980,667,806
|
NO
| 0.021488
| 15,541.759283
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
hSIC9E6ung
|
will-i-go-to-the-gym-twice-a-week-u
|
Will I go to the gym twice a week until July?
| null | 1,747,907,214,504
| 1,749,451,716,185
| 1,749,451,716,185
|
NO
| 0.606264
| 530.790924
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
SA62qIPEzR
|
i-score-5-on-the-ap-physics-1-exam
|
I score 5 on the AP Physics 1 exam in May 2025
| null | 1,748,310,336,036
| 1,748,310,384,782
| 1,748,310,384,782
|
YES
| 0.735294
| 110
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
tShQ8R2QUn
|
will-elon-musk-buy-hasbro-within-6
|
Will Elon Musk buy Hasbro within 6 months?
| null | 1,732,812,655,425
| 1,748,451,540,000
| 1,748,520,292,624
|
NO
| 0.01
| 22,647.888898
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
1qriku6ak2
|
will-a-la-liga-regular-season-match-4e6bn123bi
|
Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year?
| null | 1,723,817,397,865
| 1,735,772,340,000
| 1,735,772,522,072
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,740.152286
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
qIuUAp0y6p
|
i-resolve-this-market-by-may-31-202
|
I resolve this market by May 31, 2025
| null | 1,746,227,852,573
| 1,746,227,992,114
| 1,746,227,992,114
|
YES
| 0.755446
| 1,320
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
9Lp0NzNAph
|
scott-alexander-debates-usaid-at-ma
|
Scott Alexander debates USAID at Manifest?
| null | 1,748,528,462,032
| 1,749,434,400,000
| 1,749,611,517,768
|
NO
| 0.134813
| 2,615.768082
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
v1rg6i4i2k
|
will-women-will-be-having-more-sex
|
Will women will be having more sex with robots than men by 2025?
| null | 1,719,384,080,698
| 1,735,694,026,789
| 1,735,694,026,789
|
NO
| 0.01
| 899.573625
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
RLROucAZIl
|
us-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-th
|
US imposes additional tariffs on third countries in response to China trade war by May 9, 2025
| null | 1,744,200,782,410
| 1,744,761,540,000
| 1,744,788,025,434
|
NO
| 0.222753
| 413.807427
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
IU2yZ6QyqL
|
will-i-implement-my-ai-markets-prof
|
Will I implement my AI markets profitting strategy in H1 2025, and will it work?
| null | 1,735,943,084,118
| 1,751,342,340,000
| 1,751,390,634,120
|
NO
| 0.125722
| 2,051.175965
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
4aaszsmzp2
|
will-there-be-credible-evidence-tha-ahcvpo9l6p
|
Will there be credible evidence that they UK could have unilaterally approved used of Storm Shadow missiles in Russia?
| null | 1,723,671,261,921
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,738,351,683,553
|
NO
| 0.58841
| 2,953.568297
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
OQq9ZdL80U
|
ncaa-basketball-2025-will-duke-flor
|
NCAA Basketball 2025: Will Duke, Florida, AND Alabama all win their games on 3/14?
| null | 1,741,957,476,386
| 1,742,011,681,572
| 1,742,011,681,572
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,907.867344
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
5CPR62ysCq
|
there-will-be-more-than-a-25-increa
|
There will be more than a 25% increase in VR users as a result of this Christmas cycle.
| null | 1,735,083,617,076
| 1,740,902,340,000
| 1,741,453,035,726
|
NO
| 0.090648
| 2,704.171314
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
sLsUS0c9NQ
|
will-the-supreme-court-grant-cert-i-yP8UCqyyRq
|
Will the Supreme Court grant cert in Perez v. United States?
| null | 1,740,596,216,401
| 1,743,487,140,000
| 1,743,515,872,712
|
NO
| 0.169106
| 1,257
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
XqOAM8EVhiMLjXad9A18
|
will-apples-market-cap-exceed-micro
|
Will Apple’s Market Cap Exceed Microsoft’s at the End of 2024?
| null | 1,715,999,836,143
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,737,061,346
|
YES
| 0.986633
| 21,074.649068
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
hPqR8lgqLq
|
trump-approval-rating-450-or-higher
|
Trump approval rating 45.0% or higher on Feb 20th?
| null | 1,735,971,473,520
| 1,740,124,740,000
| 1,740,183,988,489
|
YES
| 0.99
| 98,342.337594
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
sVlJtVqYfXAjnZKjDY4O
|
nfl-week-17-dec-28-2024-will-the-wa
|
NFL Week 17 (Dec 28 2024): Will the Washington Commanders (home) beat the Atlanta Falcons (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,666,707
| 1,735,621,200,000
| 1,737,477,040,099
|
YES
| 0.997391
| 3,873.773317
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
qZRLLPOhnl
|
is-manus-another-deepseek-moment
|
Is Manus another "DeepSeek moment"?
| null | 1,741,438,414,907
| 1,746,676,740,000
| 1,746,699,913,382
|
NO
| 0.016619
| 47,050.271151
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
yS6NqpLCPu
|
any-of-eu-uk-or-us-remove-hts-from
|
Any of EU, UK, or US remove HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) from terrorist list by December 31, 2024
| null | 1,733,750,288,282
| 1,735,689,600,000
| 1,735,728,001,128
|
NO
| 0.128194
| 322
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
SqLCNO6yQq
|
will-the-us-impose-200-tariffs-on-e-UZRg90d0uO
|
Will the US impose 200%+ tariffs on european alcohol imports by the end of April 2025?
| null | 1,743,015,986,585
| 1,746,143,940,000
| 1,746,148,703,178
|
NO
| 0.013243
| 1,078.717367
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
bmTSCtvB3jMFai8LA636
|
will-the-m4based-macbook-macbook-ai
|
Will the M4-based MacBook / MacBook Air have an OLED screen option?
| null | 1,715,102,699,015
| 1,741,187,392,635
| 1,741,187,392,635
|
NO
| 0.036592
| 797.508894
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
2SPL9h0l2Z
|
t-coronae-borealis-erupts-as-a-nova
|
T Coronae Borealis erupts as a nova on March 27th?
| null | 1,743,060,421,646
| 1,743,119,940,000
| 1,743,575,269,288
|
NO
| 0.070561
| 346
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
zrkuwsa29h
|
will-justice-thomas-be-impeached-by
|
Will Justice Thomas be impeached by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,720,651,817,391
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,837,919
|
NO
| 0.027181
| 767.322018
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
6zIRuUZcLp
|
will-blc1-be-confirmed-as-alien-tec
|
Will BLC-1 be confirmed as alien technology before 2025?
| null | 1,730,135,067,645
| 1,735,703,940,000
| 1,735,725,560,476
|
NO
| 0.031567
| 13,577.390152
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
d8AZQQCNLt
|
will-the-supreme-court-permit-the-f
|
Will the Supreme Court permit the firing of Hampton Dellinger by the Trump Administration?
| null | 1,739,754,825,607
| 1,741,373,303,466
| 1,741,373,303,466
|
YES
| 0.871134
| 598.914224
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
dhQ0lq6Sl0
|
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-EypsdNA59A
|
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
| null | 1,743,178,367,605
| 1,744,042,320,000
| 1,744,064,269,950
|
NO
| 0.422318
| 45
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
qp2l2sUOs9
|
will-mark-carney-be-the-prime-minis
|
Will Mark Carney be the Prime Minister after the election in Canada?
| null | 1,744,137,453,241
| 1,745,881,200,000
| 1,745,904,765,905
|
YES
| 0.838671
| 80,265.765385
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
AsOchl6hL8
|
number-of-applicants-for-the-300-fe
|
Number of applicants for the $300 Fermi Model Competition exceeds 10 by February 16th, 2025
| null | 1,738,617,297,038
| 1,739,824,045,167
| 1,739,824,045,167
|
NO
| 0.562933
| 437.605673
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
n5e52r1m3o
|
will-i-release-my-first-original-mu
|
Will I release my first original musical track or cover video this year?
| null | 1,721,329,683,800
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,736,372,667,865
|
NO
| 0.16487
| 371.600656
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
n925az9t4i
|
pavel-durov-leaves-france-in-2024--cash
|
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?
| null | 1,729,699,702,460
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,761,707,008
|
NO
| 0.010985
| 1,481.860909
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
UpNRSZPgLp
|
will-vucic-flee-like-assad
|
Will Vučić flee like Assad?
| null | 1,733,951,696,377
| 1,751,362,110,587
| 1,751,362,110,587
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,120.676403
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
R80stq0EO9
|
china-hasalready-had-access-to-gpt4
|
China has/already had access to GPT-4 weights; proof before 2025
| null | 1,733,321,841,311
| 1,735,689,600,000
| 1,736,441,917,698
|
NO
| 0.051153
| 3,567.127788
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
fy57vk101l
|
will-cyber-monday-sales-in-2024-exc
|
Will cyber Monday sales in 2024 exceed 2023’s
| null | 1,724,272,362,507
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,745,344,262
|
YES
| 0.717182
| 60
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
x3t4y1cd05
|
will-beff-jezos-renounce-eacc-by-eo
|
Will Beff Jezos renounce e/acc by EOY?
| null | 1,719,759,071,374
| 1,735,642,740,000
| 1,735,824,871,631
|
NO
| 0.072829
| 324.469178
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
6hSlnszqOO
|
will-o3-pro-be-released-before-apri
|
Will o3 pro be released before April?
| null | 1,738,881,404,712
| 1,743,544,740,000
| 1,743,551,043,886
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,217.932251
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
AIPuC000Sp
|
will-i-play-magic-the-gathering-thi-nInLA0gh28
|
Will I play magic the gathering this week?
| null | 1,739,311,435,543
| 1,739,779,140,000
| 1,739,801,850,415
|
NO
| 0.590342
| 45
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
I9lzNuRzcO
|
bitcoin-hits-110000-on-coinbase-bef
|
Bitcoin hits $110,000 on Coinbase before June 30 UTC?
| null | 1,750,748,761,043
| 1,751,269,378,012
| 1,751,269,378,012
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,573.326164
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
7c30o25ncd
|
will-one-day-sooner-make-the-top-fi
|
Will "One Day Sooner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,719,255,171,702
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,305,987,411
|
NO
| 0.15
| 12.040495
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
ilakkqoxmw
|
will-a-major-ai-lab-release-a-model
|
Will a major AI lab release a model that does search (e.g monte carlo tree search) at inference-time by 2025?
| null | 1,722,802,141,060
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,757,884,880
|
YES
| 0.92738
| 315
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
weg2cijsi1
|
will-lukashenko-win-the-presidentia
|
Will Lukashenko win the presidential elections in Belarus in 2025?
| null | 1,727,554,801,318
| 1,738,525,210,029
| 1,738,584,691,265
|
YES
| 0.955902
| 570.783192
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
b7vh46quna
|
will-dr-disrespect-be-livestreaming
|
Will Dr Disrespect be livestreaming on Youtube or Kick six months from now?
| null | 1,722,471,557,679
| 1,738,386,625,208
| 1,738,386,625,208
|
YES
| 0.82
| 654.763871
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
96Ch09h5sp
|
will-joe-biden-pardon-henry-cuellar
|
Will Joe Biden pardon Henry Cuellar?
| null | 1,730,966,527,677
| 1,737,514,964,847
| 1,737,514,964,847
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,956.396821
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
SnluPO9d2E
|
was-a-rare-atmospheric-phenomenon-b
|
Was a 'rare atmospheric phenomenon' behind the Spanish power blackout?
| null | 1,745,856,128,875
| 1,748,728,740,000
| 1,748,785,340,923
|
NO
| 0.15623
| 733.378583
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
QFoPicqb0FJUU1es3Eho
|
will-cosmopolitan-values-dont-come
|
Will "Cosmopolitan values don't come free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,716,849,934,735
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,461,453
|
NO
| 0.100024
| 457
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
lEutZOy8cI
|
will-this-market-have-less-than-25
|
Will this market have less than 25 participants on close (in one day)?
| null | 1,742,272,073,141
| 1,742,443,140,000
| 1,742,454,697,305
|
YES
| 0.899575
| 371.129861
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
5LcNdNIQRE
|
will-the-rams-trade-matthew-staffor
|
Will the Rams trade Matthew Stafford by May 7, 2025?
| null | 1,739,569,111,963
| 1,746,763,140,000
| 1,746,790,987,595
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,405.288369
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
h8PNpI5q0p
|
will-my-reddit-post-manifold-tips-a
|
Will my reddit post "Manifold Tips and Tricks" get > 100 karma?
| null | 1,731,867,036,440
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,759,751,007
|
NO
| 0.012005
| 8,332.387469
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
Z0luy6nsQS
|
bitcoin-120k-by-q1-2025
|
Bitcoin $120K by Q1 2025?
| null | 1,732,002,331,002
| 1,743,490,740,000
| 1,743,492,725,610
|
NO
| 0.01
| 80,595.624688
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
yqUdsllRAA
|
ilia-topuria-knocks-out-charles-oli
|
Ilia Topuria knocks out Charles Oliveira?
| null | 1,748,296,495,607
| 1,751,061,180,000
| 1,751,204,844,147
|
YES
| 0.614453
| 298.176372
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
nPcRZU0P5N
|
will-volodymyr-zelenskyy-be-photogr
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be photographed wearing a suit before May 1st, 2025?
| null | 1,741,039,999,187
| 1,746,169,140,000
| 1,746,393,063,555
|
NO
| 0.01
| 484,887.234499
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
3pz9ldxhye
|
will-i-saw-the-tv-glow-be-nominated
|
Will I Saw the TV Glow be nominated for any of the six major awards at the 97th Academy Awards?
| null | 1,724,788,443,140
| 1,737,641,173,018
| 1,737,641,173,018
|
NO
| 0.019469
| 6,129
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
hthh92tQcn
|
will-vwrp-reach-all-time-high-this
|
Will VWRP reach all time high this month?
| null | 1,747,235,318,156
| 1,748,649,540,000
| 1,748,679,391,127
|
NO
| 0.01
| 899.909006
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QH8XyTxB3PJGTofBjSCx
|
will-my-technooptimism-by-vitalik-b
|
Will "My techno-optimism [By Vitalik Buterin]" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,718,218,122,745
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,586,793
|
NO
| 0.099408
| 400
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
yUsCEtZdUq
|
will-nico-robin-do-well-next-chapte
|
Will Nico robin do well next chapter 1147
| null | 1,745,548,006,887
| 1,745,891,761,729
| 1,745,891,761,729
|
YES
| 0.750753
| 120
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
8P0PPPEgh6
|
will-i-send-m2000-by-market-close
|
Will I send ≥Ṁ2000 by market close?
| null | 1,751,136,078,709
| 1,751,734,740,000
| 1,751,904,901,230
|
NO
| 0.210327
| 114.014986
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
jdilycfsoh
|
will-will-the-growing-deer-prion-ep
|
Will "Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,721,024,739,575
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,976,239
|
NO
| 0.435522
| 2,361.147744
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
lQLICcZCSy
|
will-usamts-determine-all-aime-qual
|
Will USAMTS determine all AIME qualifiers through USAMTS before February?
| null | 1,736,730,621,807
| 1,738,348,140,000
| 1,738,361,081,408
|
YES
| 0.74
| 467.748209
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
4nlpu019vj
|
will-trump-publicly-mention-agi-or
|
Will Trump publicly mention AGI or Superintelligence before 2025?
| null | 1,727,289,168,320
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,724,192,868
|
NO
| 0.035663
| 6,569.198742
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
QZONLUc8yu
|
will-tina-show-up-on-time-to-krishn
|
Will Tina show up on time to Krishna?
| null | 1,744,987,629,845
| 1,744,990,309,454
| 1,744,990,309,454
|
NO
| 0.448414
| 30
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
znhERctQyl
|
will-alexander-volkanovski-defeat-d
|
Will Alexander Volkanovski defeat Diego Lopes at UFC 314?
| null | 1,740,506,763,471
| 1,744,578,959,175
| 1,744,578,959,175
|
YES
| 0.99
| 67,517.633806
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
IhkhUaldypVIXsQ4Bzmy
|
will-if-interpretability-research-g
|
Will "If interpretability research goes well, it ma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,718,220,412,082
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,380,729
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
8Cuc20RL5y
|
greta-thunberg-deported-from-israel
|
Greta Thunberg deported from Israel before June 16, 2025
| null | 1,749,468,088,007
| 1,749,542,678,936
| 1,749,542,678,936
|
YES
| 0.989613
| 1,246.926522
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
cdhtuAnnU0
|
senator-mike-lee-resigns-before-jul
|
Senator Mike Lee resigns before July?
| null | 1,750,030,145,350
| 1,751,327,940,000
| 1,751,330,038,302
|
NO
| 0.010329
| 1,041.138963
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
NlggEy5AyC
|
will-proof-team-top-11-at-mathcount
|
will proof team top 11 at mathcounts state
| null | 1,740,938,989,938
| 1,742,681,505,952
| 1,742,681,505,952
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,036.311021
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
8pNIghgSPu
|
bitcoin-above-95k-on-may-10
|
Bitcoin above $95K on May 10?
| null | 1,746,482,088,451
| 1,746,913,268,167
| 1,746,913,268,167
|
YES
| 0.992794
| 26,160.543039
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
U06h5Ey06Z
|
will-jayden-daniels-win-rookie-of-t
|
Will Jayden Daniels win Rookie of the Year?
| null | 1,736,705,780,563
| 1,738,902,924,458
| 1,738,902,924,458
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,016.967175
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
OnnI5l0sSq
|
real-madrid-win-against-alaves
|
Real Madrid win against Alavés?
| null | 1,744,510,145,955
| 1,744,562,622,895
| 1,744,562,622,895
|
YES
| 0.822143
| 115
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
v5pf2uahu8
|
will-a-significant-new-format-desig
|
Will a significant new format designed around cEDH be created by 03/23/25?
| null | 1,727,149,340,712
| 1,742,788,740,000
| 1,742,789,973,858
|
NO
| 0.063435
| 285
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
r3c29h8106
|
will-thailand-formally-join-brics-i
|
Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024?
| null | 1,718,736,171,305
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,857,114,044
|
NO
| 0.040435
| 7,257.576135
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
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