id
stringlengths 9
20
| slug
stringlengths 11
53
| question
stringlengths 8
120
| firstGroup
float64 | createdTime
int64 1,715B
1,752B
| closeTime
int64 1,717B
1,752B
| resolvedTime
int64 1,736B
1,752B
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stringclasses 2
values | resolutionProbability
float64 0
1
| volume
float64 0
1.38M
| pred_category
stringclasses 15
values | pred_subcategory
stringclasses 39
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AgEl0URcCP
|
will-btc-hit-95000-before-the-end-o
|
Will BTC hit $95,000 before the end of April 2025?
| null | 1,743,496,743,529
| 1,745,769,920,919
| 1,745,769,920,919
|
YES
| 0.99
| 6,424.796423
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
tprzeiu04t
|
will-pausing-ai-developments-isnt-e-h9yy9ohsp8
|
Will "Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,723,777,818,988
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,683,215
|
YES
| 0.133368
| 50
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
QgLsq0OgUg
|
vladimir-putin-attends-brics-summit
|
Vladimir Putin attends BRICS Summit in Brazil July 6-7?
| null | 1,750,640,006,062
| 1,751,935,920,000
| 1,752,092,650,108
|
NO
| 0.009969
| 1,607.776224
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
jbxlw97ork
|
will-openai-use-a-different-name-fo
|
Will OpenAI use a different name for an AI model this year than the names it already used with incremental numbers?
| null | 1,726,234,459,324
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,741,734,950,797
|
YES
| 0.976943
| 1,445.611496
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
s9s6R2CyR6
|
scott-alexander-publishes-a-post-on
|
Scott Alexander publishes a post on ACX before Tuesday midnight PST?
| null | 1,748,681,078,374
| 1,748,879,765,346
| 1,748,879,765,346
|
YES
| 0.989961
| 9,507.450941
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
EUICPOS0sS
|
will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-PSCEZuAdyq
|
Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Musk within 1 week [March 6]? - credible reporting
| null | 1,740,682,040,471
| 1,741,334,340,000
| 1,741,359,503,921
|
NO
| 0.01027
| 8,976.495556
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
P2dl6RClc2
|
will-mirror-bot-atmirrorbot-post-cr
|
Will Mirror Bot ([at]mirrorbot) create another question before January 1, 2025?
| null | 1,733,593,097,332
| 1,735,729,953,793
| 1,735,729,953,793
|
NO
| 0.024961
| 5,250
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
y6LtqUuyup
|
is-rejecting-mit-be-worth-while-if
|
Is Rejecting MIT be worth while if I go to comunity college to save cost?
| null | 1,745,820,414,146
| 1,746,056,751,478
| 1,746,056,751,478
|
YES
| 0.251394
| 175.433468
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
zL2OCSURCO
|
will-the-usajmo-cutoffs-come-out-be
|
Will the USA(J)MO cutoffs come out before March?
| null | 1,739,326,680,573
| 1,740,806,928,243
| 1,740,806,928,243
|
NO
| 0.068771
| 581.243505
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
9Cz6AE2IzR
|
will-i-make-usaco-camp-in-2025
|
Will I make USACO camp in 2025
| null | 1,737,902,537,587
| 1,745,836,369,074
| 1,745,836,369,074
|
YES
| 0.842861
| 4,681.875704
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
RtCZgRSt5N
|
western-states-100-mens-course-reco
|
Western States 100 men's course record broken?
| null | 1,750,836,740,544
| 1,751,095,620,000
| 1,751,182,514,397
|
NO
| 0.224102
| 151.358014
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
LyOdttQSN8
|
i-regret-playing-last-of-us-part-2
|
I regret playing Last of Us Part 2 on PC release?
| null | 1,742,894,610,512
| 1,744,243,140,000
| 1,744,245,262,312
|
NO
| 0.370893
| 40
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
0ygqPpUUPu
|
will-10-silver-bulletin-articles-be
|
Will >10 Silver Bulletin articles be posted in February 2025?
| null | 1,739,235,474,678
| 1,740,840,069,053
| 1,740,840,069,053
|
YES
| 0.2
| 100
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
c0ZthRZIZ8
|
2025-april-hottest-on-record-resolv
|
2025 April hottest on record? [Resolves from GISTemp data]
| null | 1,744,227,056,479
| 1,747,451,323,276
| 1,747,451,323,276
|
NO
| 0.01
| 940.402799
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
LFkwX83OPKPtqVKy87SP
|
nfl-week-18-jan-4-2025-will-the-los
|
NFL Week 18 (Jan 4 2025): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Seattle Seahawks (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,719,771
| 1,736,226,000,000
| 1,737,477,042,349
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,419.529622
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
nUN906OORP
|
will-25-or-more-states-be-affected
|
Will 25 or more states be affected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?
| null | 1,731,560,438,396
| 1,743,479,940,000
| 1,743,480,457,155
|
NO
| 0.063605
| 1,566.416977
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
I2PnPLzUsA
|
will-trump-pardon-enrique-tarrio
|
Will Trump pardon Enrique Tarrio?
| null | 1,733,497,049,386
| 1,739,400,986,384
| 1,739,400,986,384
|
YES
| 0.978598
| 4,655.399351
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6lyIEtpE2I
|
will-topick-finish-develoopment-by
|
Will Topick finish develoopment by Jan 15 2025
| null | 1,736,826,411,992
| 1,736,826,727,239
| 1,736,826,727,239
|
YES
| 0.36
| 70
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
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