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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
lU5cnIIhuE
|
will-bitcoin-hit-95k-in-june-polyma
|
Will Bitcoin hit 95k in June? [Polymarket]
| null | 1,748,800,298,083
| 1,751,378,159,580
| 1,751,378,159,580
|
NO
| 0.01
| 56,327.7446
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
cEzUEc0USP
|
will-i-recover-my-lost-clear-waterb
|
Will I recover my lost waterbottle by end of Manifest?
| null | 1,749,230,594,101
| 1,749,447,520,736
| 1,749,447,520,736
|
NO
| 0.157809
| 1,758.596724
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
rc7g5nxqw2
|
will-donald-trump-win-1-or-more-of
|
Will Donald Trump win 1 or more of the following states in the Electoral College: VA, CO, MN, NM, or NH?
| null | 1,721,505,352,761
| 1,722,149,940,000
| 1,735,882,590,684
|
NO
| 0.352053
| 287.550128
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
7ykgwog091
|
will-gixxerbrah-be-arrested-again-i
|
Will Gixxerbrah be arrested again in 2024?
| null | 1,721,317,781,463
| 1,735,660,740,000
| 1,736,526,795,220
|
NO
| 0.193269
| 1,055
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nuox4c2v42
|
will-yann-lecun-remain-the-head-of
|
Will Yann LeCun remain the head of AI at Meta (Facebook) on July 1st 2025?
| null | 1,721,665,347,948
| 1,751,405,002,470
| 1,751,405,002,470
|
YES
| 0.985194
| 62,369.798451
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
mSeesg7i4d
|
will-apocalypse-insurance-and-the-h
|
Will "Apocalypse insurance, and the hardline libert..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,733,350,444,387
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,466,098
|
NO
| 0.105672
| 52.097773
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
56U866ysnz
|
real-id-travel-requirement-postpone
|
REAL ID travel requirement postponed past May 7, 2025?
| null | 1,744,750,933,177
| 1,746,662,340,000
| 1,746,664,535,921
|
NO
| 0.053713
| 69,583.368064
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
IsRNcUqOcI
|
iran-conducts-a-military-strike-on
|
Iran conducts a military strike on Qatar before June 25, 2025
| null | 1,750,694,680,942
| 1,750,697,336,224
| 1,750,697,336,224
|
YES
| 0.75
| 82.966986
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
awt43c1tav
|
will-the-vienna-hypersphere-publish
|
Will the Vienna Hypersphere publish >1 post on Substack or LW before 2025?
| null | 1,727,648,283,432
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,742,772,940
|
NO
| 0.2487
| 1,396.447097
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
lhptQ9psOg
|
will-contrapoints-release-a-new-mai-pZuNEcA0uc
|
Will Contrapoints release a new mainline video essay by the end of March 2025?
| null | 1,735,775,339,376
| 1,742,906,690,567
| 1,742,906,690,567
|
YES
| 0.994627
| 15,270.756566
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
42rv9czc04
|
will-a-case-for-ai-alignment-being
|
Will "A case for AI alignment being difficult" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,726,162,898,527
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,306,065,867
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
0tUgUlIAp2
|
will-rpredictionmarkets-have-more-t-E6ELAdtyug
|
Will r/PredictionMarkets have more than 500 members by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,733,104,947,265
| 1,735,651,740,000
| 1,736,385,422,756
|
NO
| 0.043133
| 371
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
U6LLzyuuln
|
will-the-2025-mit-mystery-hunt-webs
|
Will the 2025 MIT Mystery Hunt website (mitmh2025.com) receive a visual overhaul before kickoff?
| null | 1,736,691,252,263
| 1,737,133,407,949
| 1,737,133,407,949
|
NO
| 0.086062
| 350.123369
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
qvl0q0iz08
|
will-jd-vance-be-charged-with-a-cri-v66qmjx2kr
|
Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,721,103,913,228
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,800,440
|
NO
| 0.041174
| 386
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9LdtcpOIZU
|
will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr-n9zLhl6pSd
|
Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2025?
| null | 1,742,611,671,305
| 1,747,354,305,151
| 1,747,354,305,151
|
YES
| 0.197282
| 2,259
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ovilyci3c4
|
will-keir-starmer-call-any-view-of
|
Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,723,136,311,483
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,735,794,107,520
|
NO
| 0.054507
| 33,530.033035
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE
|
will-trump-face-any-significant-rep
|
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
| null | 1,717,106,554,501
| 1,736,640,309,597
| 1,736,640,309,597
|
NO
| 0.01
| 15,069.189682
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
NNLuUqq26u
|
will-the-uk-government-remove-hts-f
|
Will the UK government remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations by June 1st 2025?
| null | 1,733,761,918,804
| 1,748,818,800,000
| 1,749,299,058,769
|
NO
| 0.011013
| 9,726.477395
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3
|
will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m
|
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,717,815,518,482
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,786,497,141
|
NO
| 0.059405
| 17,408.998258
|
TECHNOLOGY
|
Emerging Technologies
|
dlgctQ6zts
|
will-an-egg-be-worth-more-than-a-do
|
Will an egg be worth more than a dollar before the end of March?
| null | 1,739,401,799,264
| 1,743,479,940,000
| 1,744,435,577,983
|
NO
| 0.016026
| 12,632.748012
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
PcqzQ552hU
|
will-this-question-get-50-traders
|
Will this question get 50 traders?
| null | 1,737,657,888,687
| 1,738,299,540,000
| 1,738,323,626,788
|
YES
| 0.996277
| 3,154.666312
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
RI8OCOdC8u
|
will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash
|
Will there be a stock market crash attributed to a Trump tariff in 2025?
| null | 1,738,499,033,135
| 1,745,416,138,168
| 1,745,416,138,168
|
YES
| 0.989982
| 2,999.747516
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
CNh6cLRpAZ
|
will-the-average-bidding-price-for
|
Will the average bidding price for this question be more than 120 mana?
| null | 1,742,177,249,624
| 1,747,371,540,000
| 1,747,610,761,475
|
YES
| 0.995411
| 15,014.086715
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
jnia6ihssy
|
will-another-medical-miracle-make-t-5tpd48o1n5
|
Will "Another medical miracle" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,721,900,559,184
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,731,171
|
NO
| 0.15
| 12.040495
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
vsm0rmozrp
|
did-generative-ai-have-a-causal-eff
|
Did generative AI have a causal effect on the major outage generated by Crowdstrike?
| null | 1,721,421,318,471
| 1,735,804,740,000
| 1,736,179,509,493
|
NO
| 0.038208
| 5,216.14193
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
vc92lm2gif
|
polymarket-to-emergency-resolve-a-m
|
Polymarket to Emergency Resolve a market to overturn a UMA decision in 2024?
| null | 1,724,634,548,018
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,750,483,400
|
NO
| 0.026264
| 5,516
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qgQUdRcl0c
|
pope-francis-say-urbi-et-orbi-in-pu
|
Pope Francis say 'Urbi et Orbi' in public this Easter?
| null | 1,744,884,613,368
| 1,745,150,488,484
| 1,745,150,488,484
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,198.729468
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
A0yIn2ELQE
|
will-all-individual-yes-traders-in
|
Will all individual "YES" traders in this market a unique MAX PAYOUT when this market closes?
| null | 1,742,847,572,238
| 1,743,461,940,000
| 1,743,474,168,019
|
NO
| 0.025377
| 11,963.913446
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
hRllPtZppZ
|
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-LsOIlCQqI6
|
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 198 and 199?
| null | 1,742,916,990,070
| 1,743,528,841,937
| 1,743,528,844,829
|
NO
| 0.24565
| 85
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b
|
will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti
|
Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025?
| null | 1,718,001,258,281
| 1,748,599,843,783
| 1,748,599,843,783
|
YES
| 0.989913
| 12,735.023195
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
LPEZU6ZQtC
|
will-openai-reference-anthropics-mo
|
Will OpenAI Reference Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP) by the End of 2025?
| null | 1,732,588,409,367
| 1,743,028,939,354
| 1,743,028,939,354
|
YES
| 0.956631
| 7,052.854101
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
z08qm5fsvu
|
will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above
|
Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share?
| null | 1,719,152,076,271
| 1,738,558,740,000
| 1,738,645,437,871
|
NO
| 0.009815
| 2,157.180436
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
suSNN9LpZS
|
will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-OR98LELzzl
|
Will a tropical or subtropical storm be named Tony in 2024?
| null | 1,731,622,787,024
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,729,717,997
|
NO
| 0.011613
| 24,844.640444
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
5v1sik39l5
|
will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-8y7p8a3krk
|
Will the Supreme Court strike down the Texas age verification law for online content?
| null | 1,723,261,490,395
| 1,751,439,540,000
| 1,751,815,406,066
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,817.87836
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
sLuUQcU06c
|
-2024-nfl-will-any-week-18-game-end
|
🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 18 game end in Scorigami?
| null | 1,734,307,416,104
| 1,736,139,540,000
| 1,736,139,739,486
|
NO
| 0.06001
| 430
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
QCSdtut89y
|
will-both-houses-of-the-missouri-st
|
Will both houses of the Missouri legislature pass a stadium bill by June 31, 2025 for the Kansas City Chiefs or Royals?
| null | 1,747,433,324,061
| 1,750,445,408,967
| 1,750,445,408,967
|
YES
| 0.950723
| 37,859.408613
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
U2spctlyEu
|
will-trump-tweet-about-zohran-mamda
|
Will Trump tweet about Zohran Mamdani in June?
| null | 1,750,874,684,458
| 1,751,385,588,823
| 1,751,385,588,823
|
NO
| 0.004847
| 4,029.615644
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yQynENnEON
|
will-jd-vance-meet-pope-leo-in-2025
|
Will JD Vance meet Pope Leo before July 1st
| null | 1,746,749,488,051
| 1,747,654,872,803
| 1,747,654,872,803
|
YES
| 0.997228
| 13,836.336436
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
RdnQQRP8LR
|
will-this-question-get-20-traders-b
|
Will this question get 20 traders by June 1st?
| null | 1,748,289,180,166
| 1,748,822,340,000
| 1,748,829,450,059
|
NO
| 0.15
| 445.247282
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
tsc6yPOA0Q
|
will-i-lift-weights-today-0Uu0p6zp0A
|
Will I lift weights today?
| null | 1,739,166,473,727
| 1,739,249,940,000
| 1,739,262,672,619
|
NO
| 0.31402
| 135
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
f34ikqln6c
|
will-at-least-100-israelis-or-pales
|
Will at least 100 Israelis or Palestinians be killed by Iranian missiles before 2025?
| null | 1,727,808,746,123
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,742,103,944
|
NO
| 0.066711
| 674.400551
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
8qRn8OAyPp
|
will-sp-500-emini-futures-go-limit
|
Will S&P 500 e-mini futures go limit up or down in the Sunday night session 2025-04-06?
| null | 1,743,804,874,164
| 1,744,049,965,932
| 1,744,049,965,932
|
NO
| 0.010189
| 15,145.750376
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
PqNsu5PIUp
|
will-i-lift-weights-today-EZgNps850R
|
Will I lift weights today?
| null | 1,739,338,288,996
| 1,739,422,740,000
| 1,739,431,055,226
|
NO
| 0.229866
| 123.520338
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
szsuZ26tUQ
|
will-starship-flight-7-fly-before-n
|
Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight?
| null | 1,735,931,664,969
| 1,737,028,647,304
| 1,737,028,647,304
|
NO
| 0.006219
| 64,579.644696
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
cUNl9Z2ScI
|
will-simmi-rejoin-kalshi-or-houseco
|
Will Simmi rejoin Kalshi or Housecord Discord Servers by Feb 1 2025?
| null | 1,737,269,980,914
| 1,737,272,412,655
| 1,737,272,412,655
|
YES
| 0.987237
| 2,011.569989
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
uQgNOPOI6n
|
will-laura-loomer-get-her-bluecheck
|
Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday?
| null | 1,735,552,650,579
| 1,735,975,477,897
| 1,735,975,477,897
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,123.645873
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
2ibuuk0l61
|
will-land-of-bad-receive-a-nominati
|
Will 'Land of Bad' receive a nomination for Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards?
| null | 1,721,453,728,556
| 1,740,372,491,536
| 1,740,372,491,536
|
NO
| 0.01
| 897.24346
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
Rnz8yAPLPQ
|
will-i-be-able-to-download-tiktok-o
|
Will I be able to download TikTok on the Google Play store and have it function normally by the end of January?
| null | 1,737,266,582,837
| 1,737,314,024,133
| 1,737,314,024,133
|
YES
| 0.962033
| 5,554.683023
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
spvmebfeu2
|
will-my-first-dnd-campaign-survive
|
Will my first DnD campaign survive until 2025?
| null | 1,728,833,638,423
| 1,735,943,367,032
| 1,735,943,367,032
|
YES
| 0.372036
| 370
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
IyZEcILE26
|
will-twitch-pay-the-withheld-earnin
|
Will Twitch pay the withheld earnings to Russian streamers in full by June 2025
| null | 1,735,630,147,128
| 1,751,068,800,000
| 1,751,291,246,683
|
NO
| 0.010948
| 939.516575
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
en29wk5qxy
|
will-joseph-anderson-release-his-hi-kwsbpb9idd
|
Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of August?
| null | 1,719,782,486,381
| 1,743,782,603,553
| 1,743,782,603,553
|
YES
| 0.947987
| 2,939.457752
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
hOzN0sO5u6
|
daily-coinflip-nytAQZIN0c
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,746,253,057,114
| 1,746,417,540,000
| 1,746,425,241,742
|
NO
| 0.51
| 7,135.674701
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
Lz5qsg09h5
|
kai-and-speed-win-fortnite-today-fe
|
Kai and Speed win Fortnite today? (Febuary 4th Eastern Time)
| null | 1,738,693,449,988
| 1,738,763,749,216
| 1,738,763,749,216
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,438.898676
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
QRS0Z5cPq0
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ClSn9t8sgc
|
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 82 and 83?
| null | 1,748,839,628,117
| 1,749,444,420,000
| 1,749,535,248,482
|
NO
| 0.161225
| 2,099.095629
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
2ZS0858su5
|
will-alien-life-be-discovered-on-eu
|
Will Alien Life be discovered on Europa before June 30?
| null | 1,750,542,308,340
| 1,751,291,953,248
| 1,751,291,953,248
|
NO
| 0.012175
| 1,873.197161
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
ugy5SlSsE2
|
willl-bryan-caplan-author-of-dont-b
|
Willl Bryan Caplan, author of "Don't be a Feminist", write about Gisèle Pelicot before May?
| null | 1,734,628,707,741
| 1,746,144,000,000
| 1,746,152,851,559
|
NO
| 0.029174
| 598.184486
|
Books & Literature
|
Authors
|
nydyCP0phA
|
will-i-meet-the-person-that-i-like
|
Will I meet the person that I like at MOP 2025?
| null | 1,742,262,499,282
| 1,745,252,970,713
| 1,745,378,806,603
|
YES
| 0.211989
| 4,484.587862
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
QdpyOs0Q5t
|
will-eric-adams-have-an-approval-ra
|
Will Eric Adams have an approval rating under 20% by June?
| null | 1,739,236,115,804
| 1,741,212,149,095
| 1,741,212,149,095
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,148.911546
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
p7hyipilsj
|
will-owen-siderius-win-nordiq-canad
|
Will Owen Siderius win Nordiq Canada ski nationals in 2024
| null | 1,727,982,695,491
| 1,741,665,540,000
| 1,743,194,418,776
|
NO
| 0.452489
| 12
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
uySIyq9OlQ
|
will-hasan-be-banned-from-twitch-fo--cash
|
Will Hasan be banned from Twitch for at least 1 day by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,729,874,455,439
| 1,735,671,726,376
| 1,735,761,891,416
|
NO
| 0.014951
| 1,276.721942
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
OPNqOyPO60
|
will-the-faas-primary-warning-syste
|
Will the FAA's primary warning system, NOTAM, be out for more than a day?
| null | 1,738,506,825,057
| 1,738,532,258,557
| 1,738,532,258,557
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
yZ9zQu6Z6t
|
president-trump-will-release-jfk-fi
|
President Trump will release JFK files within the first week of the presidency?
| null | 1,731,055,108,033
| 1,738,079,183,616
| 1,738,079,190,079
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,869.916986
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
wiphjj61eq
|
will-the-biden-government-contract
|
Will the Biden government contract SpaceX to provide rural America with internet?
| null | 1,722,270,473,438
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,761,101,245
|
NO
| 0.05
| 4,215.788348
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
g92z0ZC9Ip
|
will-david-lynch-be-alive-at-the-en-E8O2RqLnRn
|
Will David Lynch be alive at the end of 2025?
| null | 1,735,776,156,670
| 1,737,052,312,594
| 1,737,052,312,594
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,122.251588
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
EQ2d2LLL68
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5yqqC5S69S
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 7 than it closed on Apr 4?
| null | 1,744,013,119,587
| 1,744,057,483,943
| 1,744,057,483,943
|
NO
| 0.01
| 58,863.757028
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QncIcO8sng
|
will-grok-3-top-the-chatbot-leaderb
|
Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
| null | 1,738,937,105,234
| 1,739,863,737,372
| 1,739,863,737,372
|
YES
| 0.99
| 100,815.874163
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
zo6v3r95mq
|
will-china-announce-the-establishme
|
Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
| null | 1,725,646,149,450
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,736,120,160,719
|
NO
| 0.13962
| 3,149.359115
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
tPs9LIuEhl
|
trumps-january-10-sentencing-pushed
|
Trump's January 10 sentencing pushed back?
| null | 1,736,323,093,721
| 1,736,530,423,845
| 1,736,530,423,845
|
NO
| 0.01
| 943.134672
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yhtdqmm84m
|
will-i-be-an-author-on-a-paper-acce
|
Will I be an author on a paper accepted to an academic conference in 2024?
| null | 1,718,679,465,204
| 1,735,703,820,000
| 1,735,725,842,628
|
YES
| 0.964068
| 727.359107
|
Books & Literature
|
Authors
|
gyQlIqyAIR
|
bitcoin-hits-87k-before-97k
|
Bitcoin hits $87k before $97k?
| null | 1,745,359,596,574
| 1,746,121,861,646
| 1,746,121,861,646
|
NO
| 0.01
| 19,321.641269
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX
|
will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a
|
Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure?
| null | 1,716,212,414,731
| 1,737,864,533,887
| 1,737,864,533,887
|
NO
| 0.442693
| 478.593897
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
goszckhgwm
|
will-candace-owens-be-subpoenaed-or
|
Will Candace Owens be subpoenaed or indicted by the USA government by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,725,738,997,458
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,792,247,329
|
NO
| 0.022438
| 570.353215
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
gzugN292RN
|
next-pope-has-a-diacritic-in-their
|
Next Pope has a diacritic in their name?
| null | 1,745,753,130,568
| 1,746,975,919,145
| 1,746,975,919,145
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,875.29519
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
uR8g2LqhIA
|
se-hizo-honduras-un-pais-mas-autori
|
¿Se hizo Honduras un país más autoritario en 2024? / Did Honduras become more authoritarian in 2024?
| null | 1,737,305,725,578
| 1,740,693,488,401
| 1,740,693,488,401
|
NO
| 0.145507
| 179
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
8gLgq9yd8d
|
will-the-manifold-office-lock-be-fi
|
Will the Manifold office lock be fixed before 5pm?
| null | 1,738,194,923,189
| 1,738,197,416,747
| 1,738,197,425,772
|
YES
| 0.88
| 1,805.631849
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
A2IcCh5Sc8
|
will-pope-francis-watch-the-nintend
|
Will Pope Francis watch the Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Direct?
| null | 1,743,518,185,105
| 1,743,738,459,123
| 1,743,738,459,123
|
NO
| 0.01
| 955.368341
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
2bhb5wooau
|
will-ethbtc-trade-below-002500-befo
|
Will ETH/BTC trade below 0.02500 before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,726,633,166,332
| 1,735,714,623,965
| 1,735,714,638,948
|
NO
| 0.057992
| 4,410.902531
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
LUddS6RCS2
|
will-trump-appoint-elbridge-cooley
|
Will Trump appoint Elbridge Colby Secretary of Defense or National Security Advisor
| null | 1,731,299,607,315
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,739,896,147,040
|
NO
| 0.312351
| 154.737346
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
sjn5grzx24
|
will-there-be-a-new-deadlock-charac
|
Will there be a new Deadlock character released before the end of the year?
| null | 1,728,628,964,306
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,972,803,483
|
YES
| 0.917471
| 262
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
2ktq82acu2
|
will-nintendos-project-rockstock-la
|
Will Nintendo's Project Rockstock launch before the release of the Nintendo Switch 2?
| null | 1,729,605,230,808
| 1,749,461,315,872
| 1,749,461,315,872
|
NO
| 0.01
| 907.340378
|
Gaming
|
Gaming Platforms
|
9LCl2QUOnE
|
kilmar-armando-abrego-garcia-confir
|
Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia confirmed alive on or before May 6?
| null | 1,744,658,864,430
| 1,744,938,404,753
| 1,744,938,404,753
|
YES
| 0.883587
| 14,536.627535
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1mcb0lemkm
|
will-section-174-be-reverted-in-202
|
Will Section 174 Allow Full Expensing of SWE Salaries for R&E in 2025?
| null | 1,722,011,124,904
| 1,751,729,505,190
| 1,751,729,505,190
|
YES
| 0.839301
| 1,287
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
yx7xo9clf2
|
will-measuring-and-improving-the-fa
|
Will "Measuring and Improving the Faithfulness of M..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,721,654,138,369
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,965,342,704
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
zy2Sg8zgEL
|
will-there-be-a-way-to-view-your-to
|
Will there be a way to view your total received comment likes on your profile by June 2025?
| null | 1,731,022,633,275
| 1,748,818,740,000
| 1,748,819,866,590
|
NO
| 0.01
| 974.504485
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
CA2tht8PyN
|
trump-declares-martial-law-on-420
|
Trump declares martial law on 4/20?
| null | 1,742,757,461,849
| 1,745,193,540,000
| 1,745,280,141,416
|
NO
| 0.01
| 4,730.458189
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
7jn5aDadcM
|
will-why-im-joining-anthropic-make
|
Will "Why I'm joining Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,734,809,148,593
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,963,623,013
|
NO
| 0.1
| 38.883292
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
ectafw6spf
|
will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6--cash
|
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025?
| null | 1,726,715,563,426
| 1,735,752,347,744
| 1,735,845,827,111
|
NO
| 0.004212
| 2,998.633421
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
uQQ0UELRzL
|
if-there-is-an-offered-ceasefire-an
|
If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th?
| null | 1,741,859,142,965
| 1,746,053,940,000
| 1,746,101,967,762
|
NO
| 0.09184
| 16,881.391488
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
9SI5S2sERA
|
will-the-movie-wicked-hit-1-billion
|
Will the movie “wicked” hit 1 Billion in the box office?
| null | 1,732,065,866,588
| 1,740,815,940,000
| 1,741,138,700,911
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,060.133176
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
lqgl3op27t
|
will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-w9d4l5y1al
|
Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,720,200,936,812
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,721,434,221
|
NO
| 0.033683
| 640
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv
|
will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c
|
Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League
| null | 1,714,918,280,198
| 1,745,435,409,663
| 1,745,435,409,663
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,201.887458
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
LESsgut8UU
|
will-british-airways-announce-effec
|
Will British Airways announce effectively lower thresholds for achieving status?
| null | 1,737,986,801,008
| 1,738,755,134,017
| 1,738,755,134,017
|
YES
| 0.84
| 129.128785
|
Finance
|
Banking & Financial Services
|
hh0chQ5CAO
|
will-the-us-10year-treasury-note-ex
|
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury note exceed 4.5% at any point before July 28, 2025?
| null | 1,745,961,317,606
| 1,747,863,190,067
| 1,747,863,194,214
|
YES
| 0.522359
| 25.42358
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
buismz3qc2
|
will-joe-biden-ultimately-give-jimm
|
Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request?
| null | 1,721,678,625,149
| 1,737,250,745,715
| 1,737,250,745,715
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,167.61838
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
PQR8As55lu
|
will-the-hpmor-anniversary-party-in
|
Will the HPMOR anniversary party in Moscow be larger than the HPMOR anniversary party in Berkeley?
| null | 1,740,689,151,108
| 1,742,185,626,583
| 1,742,185,626,583
|
YES
| 0.816688
| 565.999309
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
dd6P0IyLAR
|
will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-united-5L0tdy5RAO
|
Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2025?
| null | 1,735,995,112,349
| 1,738,215,341,269
| 1,738,215,341,269
|
YES
| 0.97
| 34,530.693394
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
n2UdcP0ggI
|
israels-current-operations-against
|
Israel's current operations against Iran last more than 14 days?
| null | 1,749,814,397,245
| 1,750,748,796,041
| 1,750,748,796,041
|
NO
| 0.570857
| 3,562.07572
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
uqR8yPERz6
|
celac-leaders-summit-in-honduras-re
|
CELAC leaders' summit in Honduras results in new climate change initiative by April 13, 2025
| null | 1,744,164,648,404
| 1,744,588,740,000
| 1,744,595,532,478
|
NO
| 0.029542
| 501
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
s6sQ62d5PZ
|
holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r
|
"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?
| null | 1,737,984,860,605
| 1,751,043,540,000
| 1,751,083,798,743
|
NO
| 0.014313
| 23,385.750554
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ESzClcS2II
|
will-bitcoin-cross-90000-this-month
|
Will bitcoin cross 90,000 $ this month ?
| null | 1,743,505,441,707
| 1,745,373,241,332
| 1,745,373,241,332
|
YES
| 0.980211
| 65,073.017158
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
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