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values | pred_subcategory
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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6UpESdOc8C
|
will-polymarkets-monthly-volume-dec
|
Will Polymarket’s monthly volume decline for three months straight?
| null | 1,739,280,629,418
| 1,743,483,021,523
| 1,743,483,021,523
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,790.802149
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
69hCA9up9Z
|
will-the-next-pope-take-a-first-tim
|
Will the next Pope take a first time name?
| null | 1,745,336,735,542
| 1,746,724,812,244
| 1,746,724,812,244
|
NO
| 0.014357
| 1,631.834719
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
59uZNlNd02
|
will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-april
|
Will I double my net worth by April 1st, 2025?
| null | 1,737,986,639,970
| 1,743,566,340,000
| 1,743,711,790,975
|
NO
| 0.010224
| 1,026.355604
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
OPl99N5Aun
|
will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP--cash
|
Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win?
| null | 1,738,292,208,068
| 1,739,157,678,861
| 1,739,159,229,100
|
YES
| 0.992806
| 7,819.037493
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
nAvTzimJUQkew3sqpOLU
|
will-the-median-home-sold-price-in
|
Will the median home sold price in San Francisco be higher in April 2025 than April 2024?
| null | 1,715,153,313,684
| 1,747,378,740,000
| 1,750,217,842,103
|
YES
| 0.674764
| 4,429.837427
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
Ic520qIRpQ
|
will-wicked-2024-gross-750-million
|
Will "Wicked" (2024) gross >$750 million? (worldwide)
| null | 1,732,123,713,490
| 1,744,922,131,076
| 1,744,922,131,076
|
YES
| 0.998859
| 5,538.454746
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
tstNs5tsnt
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-gQtzNpLUEA
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 18 than it closed on Feb 14?
| null | 1,739,795,485,064
| 1,739,912,415,272
| 1,739,912,415,272
|
YES
| 0.973866
| 8,626.005244
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
Q8h5EunUPl
|
will-israel-attack-greta-thunbergs
|
Will Israel attack Greta Thunberg's ship?
| null | 1,748,976,264,189
| 1,749,476,239,229
| 1,749,567,387,123
|
NO
| 0.150723
| 112,330.464299
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
StzOQ85yls
|
tariffs-on-china-above-150-by-end-o
|
Tariffs on China above 150% by end of June
| null | 1,744,371,405,892
| 1,751,327,940,000
| 1,751,336,499,839
|
NO
| 0.027481
| 3,581.163106
|
Finance
|
Trade & Economics
|
QuNytU9Zz9
|
will-any-state-have-more-than-30000
|
Will any state have more than 300,000 customers without power before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,732,233,607,205
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,742,122,406
|
NO
| 0.024602
| 6,394.432731
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
PZNEuPI2Cn
|
national-injunctions-banned-by-the
|
National injunctions banned by the Supreme Court?
| null | 1,747,323,172,934
| 1,751,037,213,191
| 1,751,037,213,191
|
YES
| 0.266747
| 2,202.970056
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
AEcPqhCc66
|
safa-brian-dies-from-a-cylingrelate
|
Safa Brian dies from a cycling-related accident before 2026?
| null | 1,732,288,160,391
| 1,735,689,600,000
| 1,735,716,477,165
|
NO
| 0.259877
| 792
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
tLI0E0R6N9
|
will-1-usd-be-worth-1500-south-kore
|
Will 1 USD be worth 1500 South Korean Won before the end of January 2025?
| null | 1,735,534,714,816
| 1,738,441,521,895
| 1,738,441,521,895
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,356.965366
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
2052tsOhZU
|
will-luka-doncic-get-a-triple-doubl
|
Will Luka Dončić get a Triple Double tonight?
| null | 1,739,215,982,971
| 1,739,282,050,272
| 1,739,282,050,272
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,969.874371
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
fi8IRWNAdtZhkv6WENU9
|
will-jimmy-carter-outlive-noam-chom
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Noam Chomsky?
| null | 1,715,466,037,859
| 1,737,263,433,399
| 1,737,263,433,399
|
NO
| 0.007622
| 7,092.136158
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
luLghNIQ0Q
|
tug-of-war-nNL5PS8Qcg
|
Tug of war
| null | 1,742,217,678,578
| 1,742,875,140,000
| 1,742,918,030,080
|
NO
| 0.11
| 342.645523
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
06dEOAdtgU
|
will-any-ai-get-a-score-of-at-least
|
Will any AI get a score of at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark before March 11, 2025?
| null | 1,738,605,663,614
| 1,741,640,340,000
| 1,741,706,025,253
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,293.521979
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
gR89Q6dhdI
|
will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-arrested-befo
|
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026?
| null | 1,733,242,131,881
| 1,737,002,035,869
| 1,737,002,035,869
|
YES
| 0.988101
| 22,590.433058
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
EPyC8lOPls
|
ronen-bar-removed-as-shin-bet-chief
|
Ronen Bar removed as Shin Bet chief before April 30, 2025
| null | 1,742,318,423,938
| 1,745,971,200,000
| 1,746,001,785,216
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,132.188062
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
c8LO9nEng5
|
ukraine-conducts-military-action-in
|
Ukraine conducts military action in Moscow on May 9, 2025
| null | 1,746,539,976,965
| 1,746,799,140,000
| 1,749,539,457,792
|
NO
| 0.07038
| 2,186.771669
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
6uSNl6p06h
|
will-trump-go-on-snl-before-the-ina
|
Will Trump go on SNL before the inauguration?
| null | 1,731,968,066,999
| 1,737,359,940,000
| 1,737,388,250,293
|
NO
| 0.010268
| 940
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
T5RzkFcNpR
|
will-link-a-community-alert-about-z
|
Will "[Link] A community alert about Ziz" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,733,566,696,980
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,425,534
|
NO
| 0.03
| 317.158267
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
dCdc8sLCRl
|
xrp-price-exceeds-250-before-july-2
|
XRP price exceeds $2.50 before July 2, 2025
| null | 1,748,894,109,042
| 1,751,414,340,000
| 1,751,471,106,940
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,349.982746
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
p9g8CdAES8
|
will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif
|
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Canada by the end of February?
| null | 1,737,436,953,871
| 1,740,709,920,000
| 1,741,307,471,032
|
NO
| 0.01426
| 7,332.969226
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
9y1gxuntth
|
will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025
|
Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
| null | 1,719,347,314,275
| 1,751,432,340,000
| 1,751,473,381,109
|
NO
| 0.010844
| 13,443.801707
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
phS96cA6Is
|
will-i-get-hired-by-one-of-the-agi
|
Will I get hired by one of the AGI labs in the next 5 years?
| null | 1,738,521,863,863
| 1,749,584,004,173
| 1,749,584,004,173
|
YES
| 0.542843
| 29.751359
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
szr361vzdf
|
will-rfk-jr-get-any-electoral-colle
|
Will RFK Jr. get any electoral college votes?
| null | 1,723,406,689,999
| 1,735,882,805,036
| 1,735,882,805,036
|
NO
| 0.008422
| 17,582.109019
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
bbd1jsqpam
|
will-a-new-donald-trump-affair-be-u
|
Will a new Donald Trump affair be uncovered before March 1st, 2025?
| null | 1,726,253,336,207
| 1,740,884,340,000
| 1,741,698,362,098
|
NO
| 0.010064
| 15,091.722522
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
m71j0802uu
|
usa-will-there-be-fatal-casualties-gzfiru9bwz
|
USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Inauguration Day?
| null | 1,721,577,922,049
| 1,737,500,340,000
| 1,737,502,463,229
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,372.460178
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
SPpEUncuNP
|
will-mitprimes-release-decisions-by
|
Will MIT-PRIMES release decisions by January 10th?
| null | 1,736,229,056,109
| 1,736,540,146,423
| 1,736,540,146,423
|
YES
| 0.393214
| 452.727181
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
AyzOstl6gl
|
will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below
|
Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in April?
| null | 1,744,674,131,296
| 1,745,881,140,000
| 1,746,120,461,932
|
NO
| 0.175867
| 270.433144
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
0xjkk2rro8
|
will-alignment-grantmaking-is-fundi
|
Will "Alignment Grantmaking is Funding-Limited Righ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,720,793,005,360
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,348,656
|
NO
| 0.092482
| 500
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
CtuCUQyO9h
|
will-deepseekr1-beat-o1-on-livebenc
|
Will Deepseek-R1 beat o1 on LiveBench?
| null | 1,737,394,152,589
| 1,737,402,886,489
| 1,737,402,886,489
|
NO
| 0.441379
| 125
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
L98Lp6t0Z6
|
will-sam-fender-play-glastonbury-20
|
Will Sam Fender play Glastonbury 2025?
| null | 1,734,051,879,420
| 1,751,237,940,000
| 1,751,383,526,756
|
NO
| 0.10373
| 2,238.548687
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
A6npQIlh5u
|
will-openai-release-o3-pro-mode-thi-qOhIqpyLRq
|
Will OpenAI release o3 pro mode this month?
| null | 1,748,973,306,792
| 1,749,757,613,231
| 1,749,757,613,231
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,662.656613
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
NNgqsS8NAL
|
will-jeanmarie-le-pen-survive-until-CQ2N9LlAc6
|
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen survive until the end of 2024?
| null | 1,731,506,066,936
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,736,331,776
|
YES
| 0.967499
| 655
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
NAZS5yZ9EL
|
free-money-cQ25tpLdZ8
|
free money
| null | 1,746,716,379,157
| 1,746,731,705,576
| 1,746,731,705,576
|
YES
| 0.947067
| 998.90596
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
qtRPSg8U5z
|
cavs-and-thunder-to-win-a-combined
|
Cavs and Thunder to win a combined 140 games in 2024-25 Regular Season?
| null | 1,736,125,570,037
| 1,742,444,712,266
| 1,742,444,712,266
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Sports
|
Professional sports
|
cUgyIPsSz2
|
will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-tQ0Ons2LhZ
|
Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Musk within 1 week [March 6]? - photo/video
| null | 1,740,676,821,289
| 1,741,334,340,000
| 1,741,359,536,250
|
NO
| 0.03207
| 17,408.218495
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
LuLstpdsEZ
|
will-mike-duncans-martian-revolutio
|
Will Mike Duncan's Martian Revolution (Season 11 of Revolutions) end with a military dictatorship on Mars?
| null | 1,731,207,303,716
| 1,749,789,572,921
| 1,749,789,572,921
|
NO
| 0.167584
| 311.46891
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
On5tNsSIyU
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-ntdRtZ9sgN
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1153 and 1154?
| null | 1,750,701,278,961
| 1,751,241,540,000
| 1,751,246,176,827
|
YES
| 0.756853
| 14,234.266188
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
g0s8j8znb7
|
will-gta6-be-delayed
|
Will GTA6 be delayed?
| null | 1,726,101,189,130
| 1,748,229,883,524
| 1,748,229,883,524
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,472.176097
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
bbe47ykjfw
|
will-barron-trump-join-a-fraternity
|
Will Barron Trump join a fraternity at NYU during his freshman year?
| null | 1,725,658,566,061
| 1,748,442,744,556
| 1,748,442,744,556
|
NO
| 0.035089
| 570
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
x11yusow3i
|
will-taylor-swift-announce-new-conc
|
Will Taylor Swift announce new concerts in Vienna until 2026?
| null | 1,725,212,889,768
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,739,196,899,574
|
NO
| 0.831843
| 125
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
n6gLAQqSlS
|
no-new-experimental-evidence-for-ro
|
No new experimental evidence for Roger Penrose's Orchestrated Objective Reduction theory by 2025-05-20
| null | 1,732,109,957,916
| 1,747,810,740,000
| 1,748,069,422,356
|
YES
| 0.99
| 949.704036
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
y6ZZn5C5Sp
|
babcock-international-babl-up-10-by
|
Babcock International (BAB.L) up 10% by May 31, 2025?
| null | 1,746,374,491,557
| 1,748,735,940,000
| 1,748,853,060,506
|
YES
| 0.975442
| 923.661271
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
l8NUULdE0z
|
will-novak-djokovic-be-a-finalist-a
|
Will Novak Djokovic be a finalist at the 2025 Australian Open?
| null | 1,736,778,335,165
| 1,737,709,288,079
| 1,737,709,288,079
|
NO
| 0.003828
| 1,858.358214
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
RsR69tsnyE
|
i-walk-5000-steps-on-5-days-this-ri
|
I walk 5,000+ steps on 5+ days this week?
| null | 1,744,552,969,194
| 1,745,180,010,429
| 1,745,180,010,429
|
YES
| 0.958129
| 556.218266
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
p57a5ul0t7
|
will-iran-announce-it-is-a-nuclear
|
Will Iran announce it is a nuclear state by end of 2024?
| null | 1,728,315,571,238
| 1,735,689,639,668
| 1,735,689,639,668
|
NO
| 0.030452
| 2,625
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
hhPI0Zn86c
|
nato-raises-defence-spending-target
|
NATO raises defence spending target above 2% GDP by July 2025
| null | 1,734,942,940,208
| 1,750,925,220,271
| 1,750,925,220,271
|
YES
| 0.929976
| 408.341201
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
pct57l6lzx
|
will-biden-pardon-anyone-within-1-m
|
Will Biden pardon anyone with 1 month or less until he leaves office?
| null | 1,729,448,938,607
| 1,737,435,540,000
| 1,737,436,250,707
|
YES
| 0.993618
| 2,429.083312
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
5cluIugdCs
|
will-sam-altman-give-testimony-to-e-2ndSCy5SCn
|
Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2025?
| null | 1,735,953,272,895
| 1,750,037,166,371
| 1,750,037,166,371
|
YES
| 0.96691
| 513.498325
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
hp7eh9rarq
|
will-kendrick-perform-not-like-us-a
|
Will Kendrick perform Not Like Us at the next Superbowl Halftime show?
| null | 1,726,025,280,469
| 1,742,235,972,091
| 1,742,235,972,091
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,930.731023
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
2hpPI8nsIg
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Cyq2yh6U2n
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 5 than it closed on Feb 4?
| null | 1,738,767,057,010
| 1,738,789,293,600
| 1,738,789,293,600
|
YES
| 0.936628
| 4,908.333572
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
6gQP628qQl
|
daily-coinflip-uzQPZI5Usz
|
Daily Coinflip
| null | 1,751,457,432,706
| 1,751,601,540,000
| 1,751,650,743,233
|
YES
| 0.505021
| 3,186.980449
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
9Pdl2Ayu5s
|
20251220-OR9s0sSUUC
|
在当前冲突背景下，以色列是否会在2025年12月20日之前对伊朗进行新的空袭？
| null | 1,750,756,810,029
| 1,750,756,838,208
| 1,750,756,838,208
|
YES
| 0.525505
| 15
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
zdirm4648
|
will-an-unmitigated-vulnerability-b
|
Will an un-mitigated vulnerability be found in Intel's Raptor Lake CPUs before the end of 2025?
| null | 1,723,587,112,938
| 1,747,214,652,114
| 1,747,214,652,114
|
YES
| 0.85
| 386.181216
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
UN92gCN8Nz
|
is-squid-games-season-1-better-than
|
Is Squid Games Season 1 better than Season 2?
| null | 1,735,313,475,745
| 1,740,002,340,000
| 1,740,149,422,185
|
YES
| 0.989993
| 1,503.360253
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
d39o1l4wnq
|
will-meta-reach-700-by-eoy
|
Will META reach $700 by EOY?
| null | 1,728,311,466,424
| 1,735,642,740,000
| 1,735,824,804,361
|
NO
| 0.028485
| 484
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
iqliqhey5n
|
will-the-texas-longhorns-make-it-to
|
Will the Texas Longhorns make it to the CFP final?
| null | 1,729,455,030,534
| 1,736,573,400,000
| 1,736,575,126,000
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,646.066464
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
Octct9Ry9p
|
will-kanye-release-a-coin-before-th
|
Will kanye release a coin before the new pope releases?
| null | 1,740,419,921,594
| 1,746,721,391,344
| 1,746,721,391,344
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,129.058927
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
lguhQOqlhS
|
will-i-come-first-in-my-league
|
Will I come first in my League
| null | 1,747,032,174,873
| 1,748,889,394,997
| 1,748,889,394,997
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,041.8625
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
piap8xqsiu
|
3rd-assassination-attempt-on-donald
|
3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
| null | 1,726,450,842,842
| 1,738,396,740,000
| 1,738,437,594,003
|
NO
| 0.01
| 504,483.962941
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ytNpORdlQQ
|
will-the-minnesota-assassin-be-tied
|
Will the Minnesota Assassin be tied to rightwing politics?
| null | 1,749,922,964,898
| 1,749,951,803,701
| 1,749,951,803,701
|
YES
| 0.970642
| 475
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
gqCRyUQ220
|
la-mayor-karen-bass-ousted-by-end-o
|
LA Mayor Karen Bass ousted by end of Feb?
| null | 1,737,063,315,673
| 1,740,815,940,000
| 1,740,876,776,800
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,210.457217
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1h8q34oqdu
|
trump-to-impose-60-tariff-on-china
|
Trump to impose 60% tariff on China in first year?
| null | 1,722,688,245,710
| 1,747,043,720,530
| 1,747,043,720,530
|
YES
| 0.997626
| 38,670.356054
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
Ehh0S5A0QP
|
this-question-have-29-traders-by-ju
|
This question have 29+ traders by June 1?
| null | 1,746,429,238,443
| 1,748,290,169,417
| 1,748,290,169,417
|
YES
| 0.99
| 6,123.478301
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
0hAUIIP6g5
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-002QnQPqt2
|
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 75 and 76?
| null | 1,743,972,445,777
| 1,744,577,911,406
| 1,744,577,914,717
|
NO
| 0.081364
| 253.986686
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
ZNlRCCI8AE
|
will-january-2025-will-be-the-warme
|
Will January 2025 will be the warmest month of January ever recorded (global) ?
| null | 1,731,094,787,950
| 1,738,450,740,000
| 1,739,790,638,066
|
YES
| 0.915417
| 715.380799
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
Pt5Elln99I
|
will-the-starship-flight-9-ship-be
|
Will the Starship Flight 9 ship be caught?
| null | 1,741,058,227,032
| 1,748,578,527,655
| 1,748,578,527,655
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,271.52428
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ZSQg28zuZQ
|
will-any-state-have-more-than-10000-zRtNRLOdsU
|
Will any state have more than 100,000 customers without power (red on US Power Outage Map) before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,732,412,244,472
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,742,066,270
|
NO
| 0.0099
| 24,156.098168
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
dPU5z8AUAA
|
will-i-receive-my-italian-birth-cer
|
Will I receive my Italian birth certificate this week? (24 - 28 Feb)
| null | 1,740,332,942,044
| 1,740,805,140,000
| 1,740,841,371,987
|
NO
| 0.316366
| 47
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
gNL85uPdsA
|
will-the-buffalo-bills-win-the-supe--cash
|
Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl in 2025?
| null | 1,730,485,321,991
| 1,737,997,980,383
| 1,737,997,980,383
|
NO
| 0.009881
| 1,402.793672
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
2QCh0ZRL68
|
bitcoin-below-90k-in-december
|
Bitcoin below $90K in December?
| null | 1,733,114,420,195
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,718,469,000
|
NO
| 0.010523
| 60,425.987732
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
Bb4cqquvVs420v32QxVO
|
will-i-would-have-solved-alignment
|
Will "I Would Have Solved Alignment, But I Was Worr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,716,697,518,609
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,618,950
|
NO
| 0.121553
| 150
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
aoz7g7jqvy
|
will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-an-is
|
Will Noam Chomsky live to see an Israel-Palestine ceasefire?
| null | 1,718,329,896,259
| 1,742,184,389,875
| 1,742,184,389,875
|
YES
| 0.982718
| 52,300.369529
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
3ucdrrb9rg
|
will-the-la-rioja-currency-the-chac
|
Will the La Rioja currency the "chacho" default in December?
| null | 1,725,400,879,345
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,785,975,658
|
NO
| 0.279921
| 700
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
zhyys5lLzO
|
will-barcelona-fc-win-the-champions
|
Will Barcelona FC win the Champions League 2024/2025?
| null | 1,742,179,629,971
| 1,746,889,846,807
| 1,746,889,846,807
|
NO
| 0.001738
| 4,359.689552
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
NlghhpPh0t
|
will-openais-deep-research-be-avail
|
Will OpenAI’s Deep Research be available to Plus and Team users in the United States before March 31st, 2025?
| null | 1,738,761,122,497
| 1,740,520,447,485
| 1,740,520,447,485
|
YES
| 0.534291
| 90.334342
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
i3wnkdkq0z
|
a-year-from-now-will-manifold-think
|
A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up?
| null | 1,719,379,429,007
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,751,776,522,656
|
NO
| 0.584539
| 1,362.67891
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
8Adp9lL8gq
|
in-the-next-30-days-will-this-marke
|
In the next 30 days, will this market with 100 liquidity earn me more mana than the twin market with 1k liquidity?
| null | 1,740,433,434,372
| 1,743,029,940,000
| 1,743,032,127,652
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,719.907679
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
hOUd98dgQc
|
sam-altman-takes-temporary-leave-of
|
Sam Altman takes temporary leave of absence from OpenAI before June 2025
| null | 1,741,808,710,378
| 1,748,736,000,000
| 1,748,764,765,082
|
NO
| 0.019686
| 2,844.31996
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
gNUURzzuSI
|
will-trump-ever-have-a-net-positive
|
Will Trump ever have a net positive approval rating? (Read Description)
| null | 1,734,108,219,494
| 1,740,065,004,672
| 1,740,065,004,672
|
YES
| 0.978368
| 8,679.850037
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ULp5h0Nulp
|
will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
|
Will I receive the mandate of the people?
| null | 1,749,934,205,656
| 1,750,528,020,000
| 1,751,407,177,117
|
NO
| 0.103653
| 8,602.739826
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qt6dndUSQR
|
will-trump-impose-additional-tariff
|
Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China before April 10?
| null | 1,738,692,010,681
| 1,741,105,625,372
| 1,741,105,625,372
|
YES
| 0.980984
| 8,510.898722
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
7e03nkxoc3
|
will-giant-inscrutable-matrices-may
|
Will "Giant (In)scrutable Matrices: (Maybe) the Bes..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,729,304,582,699
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,306,062,980
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Books & Literature
|
Books & Literature
|
XYzUgUimeMKzgqQ62O7K
|
will-dan-make-a-fully-paywalled-epi
|
WILL DAN MAKE A FULLY PAYWALLED EPISODE BEFORE 2025?
| null | 1,714,926,358,360
| 1,735,865,717,377
| 1,735,865,717,377
|
NO
| 0.323276
| 65
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
OZR0Iqphzn
|
will-openai-release-a-product-with-6LpgOUzROg
|
Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025?
| null | 1,730,259,379,484
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,736,916,358,746
|
NO
| 0.036064
| 5,581.403125
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
0SN2qUQ5O5
|
sp-500-above-6050-on-june-13
|
S&P 500 above $6050 on June 13?
| null | 1,749,604,773,162
| 1,749,846,916,957
| 1,749,846,916,957
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,218.297257
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ctz2EdtCPQ
|
bitcoin-above-97k-on-february-21
|
Bitcoin above $97K on February 21?
| null | 1,739,312,586,547
| 1,740,130,262,973
| 1,740,130,262,973
|
YES
| 0.990382
| 31,880.387425
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
5z5QuLqSn2
|
will-elon-musk-stop-or-step-back-fr
|
Will Elon Musk stop or step back from running DOGE before the end of 2025?
| null | 1,743,637,148,406
| 1,748,664,891,801
| 1,748,664,891,801
|
YES
| 0.969497
| 1,486.108586
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
LyRZPE9RIy
|
will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-N0pOOU6qUn
|
Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Trump within 1 week [March 6]? - credible reporting
| null | 1,740,682,004,088
| 1,741,334,340,000
| 1,741,359,513,606
|
NO
| 0.033124
| 5,163.625418
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
l6SA65nC8Z
|
will-any-of-the-debris-of-the-faile
|
Will any of the debris of the failed 8th Starship Flight injure any civilians?
| null | 1,741,307,957,445
| 1,741,682,803,490
| 1,741,682,803,490
|
NO
| 0.01
| 953.500634
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
uhmaba0ts8
|
will-any-nfl-quarterback-exceed-509
|
Will any NFL quarterback exceed 509 passing yards in a single game before the end of the 2024 season?*
| null | 1,728,055,195,407
| 1,736,131,165,732
| 1,736,131,165,732
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,272.936594
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
OylE9tuN9n
|
will-an-llm-break-1400-elo-on-lmsys
|
Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February?
| null | 1,734,721,071,666
| 1,738,429,425,385
| 1,738,429,425,385
|
NO
| 0.010411
| 150,907.711029
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
2hpgPZA62Q
|
will-iran-hit-israel-within-11-mont
|
Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,738,417,384,331
| 1,749,949,721,525
| 1,749,949,721,525
|
YES
| 0.972241
| 1,118.410507
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
Ag299cC8EZ
|
bitcoins-price-will-outperform-the
|
Bitcoin's price will outperform the floor price of top 10 NFT collections by June 2025
| null | 1,741,798,728,873
| 1,749,513,600,000
| 1,749,891,949,503
|
YES
| 0.764151
| 80
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
RE8dn5uI5C
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-thlqqtEcOS
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 10 than it closed on Mar 7?
| null | 1,741,595,860,242
| 1,741,638,194,433
| 1,741,638,194,433
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,438.698082
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
8dElzcnn0Z
|
will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg
|
Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025?
| null | 1,732,041,364,644
| 1,737,437,049,787
| 1,737,437,049,787
|
YES
| 0.99
| 37,526.535413
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
hzd8sClRR2
|
will-i-be-able-to-rent-an-h100-for
|
Will I be able to rent an H100 for under $2/hr on March 31?
| null | 1,739,895,055,697
| 1,743,569,940,000
| 1,743,738,399,370
|
NO
| 0.753846
| 75
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
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