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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2RIAQSUU2Q
|
kash-patel-fbi-director
|
Kash Patel FBI Director by Jan 31, 2025?
| null | 1,731,549,890,963
| 1,738,396,740,000
| 1,738,437,705,290
|
NO
| 0.01
| 32,749.7912
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
7ZPAWBfmAEVtmSU1b0sC
|
will-manifold-help-me-pivot-my-care
|
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,717,959,607,998
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,932,329,223
|
NO
| 0.440678
| 13,801.12202
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
ztdnPqSpS8
|
will-nonhuman-intelligence-become-a
|
Will non-human intelligence become a leading "mainstream media" theory for the cause of the "drones" before end of 2024?
| null | 1,734,202,072,777
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,737,748,955
|
NO
| 0.03893
| 6,368.829884
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
slf8viq4dt
|
will-the-number-of-manifold-league
|
Will the number of Manifold league types have changed at any point in time before 2025?
| null | 1,719,883,452,803
| 1,735,772,340,000
| 1,738,719,307,346
|
NO
| 0.010006
| 895
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
QgLtsc6ZSl
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-cANOsPuZup
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1135 and 1136?
| null | 1,734,901,406,463
| 1,736,015,612,589
| 1,736,015,615,237
|
YES
| 0.52503
| 384
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
JaJ3tILIudSQIBeC9UJ3
|
will-apple-release-a-smart-ring-wea-2402d875b4f1
|
Will Apple release a smart ring wearable product by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,715,269,805,080
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,775,643,235
|
NO
| 0.064649
| 435.51172
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
Eh9OzUlQNy
|
will-i-make-usamo-2025
|
Will I make USAMO 2025
| null | 1,732,637,972,112
| 1,741,130,498,974
| 1,741,130,498,974
|
YES
| 0.961352
| 1,187.116342
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
ERtS88I5uq
|
tiktoks-us-status-unchanged-by-may
|
TikTok's US status unchanged by May 1?
| null | 1,743,113,410,093
| 1,746,143,940,000
| 1,746,146,339,341
|
YES
| 0.99
| 904.749342
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
gcVrckjiFoKmM07QbvQJ
|
will-credible-corroborated-gpt4o-mo
|
Will credible, corroborated GPT4o model details leak before 2025?
| null | 1,715,673,518,230
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,735,717,217,973
|
NO
| 0.36
| 283.991248
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ndUgsdQdIn
|
will-i-believe-in-100-days-that-the
|
Will I believe in 100 days that the $100 billion statement by Elon Musk is accurate?
| null | 1,739,115,864,604
| 1,747,781,940,000
| 1,748,265,424,306
|
NO
| 0.041559
| 9,151.011685
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
lgAP2puS56
|
lionel-messi-makes-an-appearance-ag
|
Lionel Messi makes an appearance against Cavalier FC in Jamaica
| null | 1,741,369,121,521
| 1,741,962,074,807
| 1,741,962,074,807
|
YES
| 0.99
| 970.821613
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
lU56O5ElQE
|
usamo-qual-2025-ydUtEyIpCP
|
USAMO qual 2025? ๐๐๐
| null | 1,740,061,493,292
| 1,741,177,603,197
| 1,741,177,603,197
|
NO
| 0.01
| 979.762272
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
7OAsOZv8QahwdewRy0gs
|
will-we-see-any-cp0-member-in-chapt-f833c4cb9781
|
Will we see any cp0 member in chapter 1115?
| null | 1,715,267,714,440
| 1,716,501,540,000
| 1,751,069,680,958
|
YES
| 0.451975
| 8,273.864989
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
Iu5gzIP8Od
|
will-andrew-cuomo-announce-he-is-ru
|
Will Andrew Cuomo announce he is running for NYC mayor by the end of January?
| null | 1,737,316,695,220
| 1,738,472,340,000
| 1,738,472,574,209
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,000.526121
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
LNAnAUINO6
|
will-trump-end-the-russiaukraine-wa-RAy2L5I05I
|
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 weeks of his inauguration?
| null | 1,739,280,443,863
| 1,751,925,540,000
| 1,751,950,409,044
|
NO
| 0.01
| 117,758.190057
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
qIRuAEgIIS
|
overunder-55-people-will-show-up-to
|
Over/under 5.5 people will show up to PLC on 3/20/2025
| null | 1,742,166,032,427
| 1,742,483,251,503
| 1,742,483,251,503
|
YES
| 0.99
| 910.987437
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
CEpNPhhpAy
|
iaea-confirms-russian-responsibilit
|
IAEA confirms Russian responsibility for Chernobyl drone attack by April 1st 2025
| null | 1,739,558,847,453
| 1,743,465,600,000
| 1,743,691,098,812
|
NO
| 0.021619
| 6,633.931799
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
lgO29cUEzt
|
will-the-insured-mana-fund-have-100
|
Will the Insured Mana Fund have 10000+ shares outstanding by EOY 2028?
| null | 1,745,586,235,779
| 1,746,680,818,051
| 1,746,680,818,051
|
YES
| 0.989613
| 958.100469
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
I5QsPul5us
|
will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-p-A8SQC2NgAI
|
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock price close at or above $21 on February 28th?
| null | 1,739,242,813,793
| 1,740,776,569,315
| 1,740,776,569,315
|
YES
| 0.988544
| 924.928865
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ycS8LRIAEy
|
will-mark-rober-post-a-video-by-jun
|
Will Mark Rober post a video by June 19th
| null | 1,748,901,847,355
| 1,750,366,961,450
| 1,750,366,961,450
|
NO
| 0.06
| 2,841.976726
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
AEzO2Pzysg
|
iran-nuclear-deal-in-2-months
|
iran nuclear deal in 2 months
| null | 1,742,405,237,972
| 1,747,713,540,000
| 1,747,758,803,636
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,931.726982
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
vd1gxqel8p
|
will-the-6d-effect-when-companies-t
|
Will "The 6D effect: When companies take risks, one..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,724,629,270,680
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,738,964,625,892
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
PZ5n6QNUu6
|
wwill-nvidia-outperform-the-sp-500
|
Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in the first half of 2025?
| null | 1,738,357,847,240
| 1,751,439,540,000
| 1,751,471,131,403
|
YES
| 0.991185
| 1,718.415614
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
Z60Q8tdNtZ
|
will-any-of-trumps-cabinet-be-confi
|
Will any of Trump's Cabinet be confirmed by the Senate on Inauguration Day?
| null | 1,733,399,546,445
| 1,737,418,764,582
| 1,737,418,764,582
|
YES
| 0.97395
| 5,869.999988
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yNlyPOCUI9
|
will-the-wikipedia-article-for-jose
|
Will the Wikipedia article for Jose Luis Ricon MAKE IT THROUGH the end of EOY2025
| null | 1,743,983,523,902
| 1,745,277,222,525
| 1,745,277,222,525
|
NO
| 0.076275
| 248
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Z0zcqLl92U
|
solana-up-5-today
|
SOLANA up 5% today?
| null | 1,748,426,733,941
| 1,748,470,093,916
| 1,748,470,093,916
|
NO
| 0.44
| 243.9018
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
QpplzhlQ6c
|
will-the-plurality-of-zvis-june-202
|
Will the plurality of Zvi's June 2025 AI use be from OpenAI?
| null | 1,747,320,485,030
| 1,751,414,340,000
| 1,751,415,982,830
|
NO
| 0.249141
| 5,091.242025
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
PLpQlhCu8q
|
will-mikal-bridges-score-over-25-po
|
Will Mikal Bridges score over 25 points in tonight's contest against the Nets? (1/21/25)
| null | 1,737,478,175,673
| 1,737,524,467,217
| 1,737,524,467,217
|
NO
| 0.547511
| 10
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
CItSdhcnys
|
nuggets-win-tomorrow
|
nuggets win tomorrow
| null | 1,746,912,426,340
| 1,746,912,581,455
| 1,746,912,581,455
|
YES
| 0.547738
| 1,004.618676
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
ngp7nej6iz
|
will-the-president-inaugurated-be-d--cash
|
Will the president inaugurated differ from [Trump] the winner of the 2024 presidential election first called by AP?
| null | 1,728,349,181,386
| 1,737,419,166,517
| 1,737,577,444,271
|
NO
| 0.007937
| 2,172.780786
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6nfdcra9w5
|
will-donald-trump-win-the-republica-d6s2ags4m9
|
Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?
| null | 1,719,009,322,679
| 1,737,476,219,363
| 1,737,476,219,363
|
NO
| 0.01
| 189,779.668901
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ghLQCS0PLN
|
solana-pumps-today
|
Will Solana pump today?
| null | 1,748,426,403,628
| 1,748,426,468,769
| 1,748,426,468,769
|
YES
| 0.5
| 0
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
pEgqAPhEPs
|
will-the-referenced-market-resolve
|
Will the referenced market resolve before 2/19?
| null | 1,739,848,032,311
| 1,739,951,517,843
| 1,739,951,517,843
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,497.94971
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
5xu604kutx
|
will-bangladesh-hold-new-general-el
|
Will Bangladesh hold new general elections in the next 6 months?
| null | 1,722,881,924,303
| 1,738,780,140,000
| 1,738,787,006,591
|
NO
| 0.01
| 60,739.360925
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
faoijknmcw
|
will-how-bad-a-future-do-ml-researc
|
Will "How bad a future do ML researchers expect?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,722,991,808,200
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,979,509
|
NO
| 0.104296
| 525
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
OncO8hhOcd
|
samsung-vs-apple
|
Samsung vs Apple - Round 1
| null | 1,735,213,739,730
| 1,735,842,540,000
| 1,735,844,893,117
|
NO
| 0.246154
| 75
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
RlC5EZQSR0
|
daily-coinflip-0Z9PIA9I8p
|
Daily Coinflip
| null | 1,751,277,359,617
| 1,751,428,740,000
| 1,751,457,410,392
|
YES
| 0.500945
| 2,399.772509
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
n9q5PZuNQQ
|
will-bitcoin-hit-90k-by-thursday
|
Will Bitcoin hit $90k by Thursday?
| null | 1,740,656,967,038
| 1,740,718,839,326
| 1,740,718,839,326
|
NO
| 0.022946
| 903.448753
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
fnr3p4t34h
|
will-manifold-have-multiplechoice-p
|
Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?
| null | 1,722,214,758,107
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,735,819,938,035
|
NO
| 0.228242
| 154
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
ZOS0sNnzQ6
|
russiaukraine-ceasefire-by-easter
|
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Easter?
| null | 1,742,737,047,371
| 1,745,193,540,000
| 1,745,194,925,628
|
NO
| 0.010064
| 7,296.772369
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
O8O5UEQh5A
|
will-this-question-close-on-a-prime
|
Will this question close on a prime number of traders? (closes in one day)
| null | 1,742,012,853,752
| 1,742,183,940,000
| 1,742,220,123,098
|
NO
| 0.005638
| 1,897.733145
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
O5R9IAuhIL
|
will-a-congressconfirmed-2025-cabin
|
Will a Congress-confirmed 2025 cabinet pick resign or be removed before June 30, 2025?
| null | 1,736,518,607,062
| 1,751,425,900,928
| 1,751,425,900,928
|
NO
| 0.012547
| 1,307.972724
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
vkbwemicbh
|
will-resolution-criteria-be-mandato-h1il222gib
|
Will resolution criteria be mandatory for new Yes/No markets on 03/03/2025?
| null | 1,726,037,744,416
| 1,741,042,740,000
| 1,741,075,118,420
|
NO
| 0.01
| 900.409471
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
pLIcdcEgIt
|
daily-coinflip-C8plNlSzRZ
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,741,551,642,845
| 1,741,665,540,000
| 1,741,681,682,177
|
NO
| 0.51
| 3,624.215706
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
lSpAtILdIu
|
will-south-korea-be-under-martial-l
|
Will South Korea be under martial law on January 1st 2025?
| null | 1,733,235,197,547
| 1,735,624,800,000
| 1,735,765,904,856
|
NO
| 0.015484
| 11,710.082798
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
pRcc8UgNU8
|
kilmar-abrego-garcia-returned-home
|
Kilmar Abrego Garcia returned home by judge's deadline?
| null | 1,744,037,143,285
| 1,744,070,340,000
| 1,744,071,798,204
|
NO
| 0.026243
| 5,100
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
99y62qNcR6
|
us-and-saudi-announce-ai-project-be
|
US/Saudi announce AI project before May 16?
| null | 1,747,138,826,202
| 1,747,353,540,000
| 1,747,408,593,889
|
NO
| 0.030709
| 585.740689
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
UOUEgL2qqO
|
will-mats-applications-open-in-marc
|
Will MATS applications open in March?
| null | 1,742,146,024,703
| 1,742,490,400,313
| 1,742,490,400,313
|
YES
| 0.991538
| 10,677.656333
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
9gCC60y6Ed
|
bbc-reports-american-deaths-from-ir
|
BBC reports American deaths from Iranian attacks in June 2025?
| null | 1,750,719,473,888
| 1,751,353,200,001
| 1,751,392,972,730
|
NO
| 0.022829
| 62,546.89123
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
QyQ8sc6gRI
|
will-gran-turismo-7s-next-update-be
|
Will Gran Turismo 7's next update be released this month?
| null | 1,746,114,647,071
| 1,747,493,427,111
| 1,747,493,427,111
|
YES
| 0.810993
| 130
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
0uguLINUCd
|
will-my-usamo-score-be-higher-than
|
Will my USAMO score be higher than David's USAJMO score?
| null | 1,741,884,084,829
| 1,745,442,422,564
| 1,745,442,422,564
|
NO
| 0.00941
| 12,988.521375
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
tVjwOnjKLbDqtyjB2kG4
|
will-the-king-and-the-golem-make-th
|
Will "The King and the Golem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,715,981,407,858
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,982,206
|
NO
| 0.148272
| 10
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
6gn68nZSAh
|
will-musk-actually-bring-a-sink-int
|
Will Musk actually bring a sink into the Oval Office after inauguration?
| null | 1,731,182,697,771
| 1,740,124,740,000
| 1,748,180,552,042
|
NO
| 0.012985
| 14,197.414454
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
wXifAhkiPEcdfCCD3em1
|
will-max-finish-the-book-i-loaned-h
|
Will Max finish the book I loaned him?
| null | 1,716,207,283,121
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,707,693,175
|
NO
| 0.584417
| 270
|
Books & Literature
|
Books & Literature
|
6RZ99CpUPt
|
will-trump-coin-official-trump-surp
|
Will $Trump coin (Official Trump) surpass the fully diluted valuation of $DOGE (Dogecoin) by April 2025?
| null | 1,737,268,840,666
| 1,737,277,478,164
| 1,737,277,478,164
|
YES
| 0.961069
| 4,450
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
s7z05zlksn
|
will-grok-3-release-before-mamma-mi
|
Will Grok 3 release before Mamma Mia 3?
| null | 1,724,644,209,504
| 1,740,369,232,075
| 1,740,369,232,075
|
YES
| 0.984939
| 1,102.006261
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
eg6pdxigjh
|
will-david-zaslav-resign-or-be-fire
|
Will David Zaslav remain CEO and president of Warner Bros. Discovery for all of 2024?
| null | 1,723,100,226,285
| 1,735,711,140,000
| 1,735,714,014,113
|
YES
| 0.99
| 10,494.379328
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
6QRmzLDIdtJsIkVqWiuo
|
will-elon-musk-serve-time-in-prison
|
Will Elon Musk serve time in prison at any point in 2024?
| null | 1,714,942,870,289
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,735,737,090,861
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,724.733702
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
gdfh2h6boi
|
will-israels-proposed-hostagesinwar
|
Will Israelโs proposed hostage/Sinwar deal be accepted?
| null | 1,726,783,108,109
| 1,735,689,540,000
| 1,735,716,484,207
|
NO
| 0.01
| 898.477615
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
5gdOJHOFmNhHQTiqPXk2
|
will-destiny-join-a-twitter-spaces
|
Will Destiny join a Twitter Spaces room with Elon Musk, both as Speakers, in 2024?
| null | 1,714,956,254,871
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,692,333,635
|
NO
| 0.04287
| 698.877072
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
PUgOn8z6yt
|
another-us-military-action-against
|
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?
| null | 1,750,562,216,623
| 1,750,651,288,701
| 1,750,651,288,701
|
NO
| 0.048429
| 6,605.117787
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
qjtbjiu91k
|
is-ukraines-offensive-in-the-kursk
|
Is Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region a diversion?
| null | 1,723,576,390,831
| 1,735,738,944,441
| 1,735,738,944,441
|
NO
| 0.09674
| 4,159.737289
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
4y57ykvT7eIY4Wuty44z
|
will-meta-release-a-llama-3-405b-mu
|
Will Meta release a Llama 3 405B multi-modal open source before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,715,153,506,830
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,771,252,755
|
NO
| 0.051499
| 5,782.699308
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
u0Un0c55PR
|
will-manifolds-users-find-a-prompt
|
Will Manifold's users find a prompt to make AI assisted questions draw an ASCII horse in June?
| null | 1,748,687,707,062
| 1,751,320,740,000
| 1,751,368,312,696
|
NO
| 0.047086
| 5,904.951704
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
2ShOQLlshh
|
short-fuse-will-i-be-able-to-get-a
|
[short fuse] Will I be able to get a Nintendo Switch 2 preorder on the first day?
| null | 1,745,451,472,886
| 1,745,510,732,738
| 1,745,510,732,738
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,580.034286
|
Technology
|
Gaming
|
i7v26sr47v
|
will-notes-on-teaching-in-prison-ma
|
Will "Notes on Teaching in Prison" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
| null | 1,719,755,071,413
| 1,738,368,000,000
| 1,739,304,577,510
|
NO
| 0.14
| 0
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
qCEd5uROsc
|
will-there-be-at-least-one-uci-cycl
|
Will there be at least one UCI cycling professional road race in the Netherlands before 1 September 2025?
| null | 1,732,734,101,288
| 1,745,207,075,998
| 1,745,207,075,998
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,296.122765
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
tt00NhtZzp
|
ras2025-will-samsung-feature-smart
|
RAS2025: Will Samsung feature smart glasses at the Unpacked event?
| null | 1,736,520,151,471
| 1,737,500,399,000
| 1,737,639,262,664
|
NO
| 0.896888
| 6,636.632953
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
5SId2zn5hI
|
will-donald-trump-repay-elon-musks
|
Will Donald Trump repay Elon Musk's backing in good faith?
| null | 1,730,939,292,568
| 1,740,630,210,963
| 1,740,630,210,963
|
YES
| 0.99
| 201,564.918435
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Qt0P96PCPc
|
will-i-get-into-the-junior-program
|
Will I get into the Junior Program of PRIMES-USA
| null | 1,736,480,351,092
| 1,736,524,657,063
| 1,736,524,657,063
|
NO
| 0.5
| 0
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
z8l9ZA0INE
|
will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif-gySLNnA8Rq
|
Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Mexico by the end of February?
| null | 1,737,436,971,005
| 1,740,709,920,000
| 1,741,185,790,416
|
NO
| 0.01
| 15,587.989948
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
0NdUnhR8A8
|
will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-febru
|
Will I double my net worth by February 2025?
| null | 1,734,099,887,511
| 1,737,387,901,609
| 1,737,387,901,609
|
YES
| 0.992068
| 2,193.916544
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
oss1pml9cq
|
will-there-be-a-disaster-this-year
|
Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
| null | 1,721,237,425,837
| 1,735,707,540,000
| 1,739,773,068,257
|
NO
| 0.033519
| 19,395.937079
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
ES0RLLsPgg
|
will-i-win-the-open-weight-division
|
Will I win the open weight division of my jiu jitsu tournament?
| null | 1,737,391,381,929
| 1,739,099,109,497
| 1,739,099,109,497
|
NO
| 0.803768
| 1,436.139262
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
1u51akc5nz
|
will-astronauts-sunita-williams-and
|
Will astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore return to Earth before the end of February 2025?
| null | 1,727,215,442,658
| 1,740,808,740,000
| 1,741,197,672,259
|
NO
| 0.014729
| 8,396.664074
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
2Q9ZINquCs
|
will-bitcoin-fall-below-100k-by-jun
|
Will Bitcoin fall below $100k by June 30th?
| null | 1,748,313,149,273
| 1,750,690,476,519
| 1,750,690,476,519
|
YES
| 0.99
| 25,078.006744
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
CnLZz0pqRZ
|
apple-stock-closes-above-210-on-jun
|
Apple stock closes above $210 on June 27?
| null | 1,750,261,989,607
| 1,750,676,400,000
| 1,751,560,503,946
|
NO
| 0.08
| 4,400.161728
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
lywrojwurm
|
will-mira-murati-work-at-an-ai-lab
|
Will Mira Murati work at an AI lab at the end of Q2 2025?
| null | 1,727,293,512,342
| 1,751,439,540,000
| 1,751,439,892,064
|
YES
| 0.99
| 22,571.123783
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
2IU5ZPqsUn
|
grok-35-available-before-june
|
Grok 3.5 available before June?
| null | 1,748,023,207,645
| 1,748,757,540,000
| 1,748,760,385,604
|
NO
| 0.018157
| 9,625.180732
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
E96g0sL5Lp
|
will-auston-matthews-score-40-goals
|
Will Auston Matthews score 40+ goals during the 2024-2025 NHL regular season?
| null | 1,735,868,279,944
| 1,744,948,740,000
| 1,744,983,653,903
|
NO
| 0.010874
| 908
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
4c9mtjocso
|
will-a-manifold-user-leave-delaware
|
Will a Manifold user leave Delaware, Idaho, Michigan, Washington, or DC to be eligible for Sweepstakes?
| null | 1,726,609,100,347
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,764,916,995
|
NO
| 0.272651
| 65
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
0IyyugAzz5
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-lRsILtuygy
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 14 than it closed on Feb 13?
| null | 1,739,540,037,444
| 1,739,602,998,214
| 1,739,602,998,214
|
NO
| 0.009445
| 13,494.002424
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
gEQygUsypE
|
will-tiktok-be-on-the-app-store-by
|
Will TikTok be on the App Store by Friday?
| null | 1,737,505,885,970
| 1,737,716,340,000
| 1,737,825,161,156
|
NO
| 0.01
| 12,759.954307
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
4dxz1c7p8f
|
will-toyota-announce-a-sixth-genera-xdnasn9gdf
|
Will Toyota announce a sixth generation RAV4 in 2024?
| null | 1,724,097,866,556
| 1,735,718,340,000
| 1,735,746,171,934
|
NO
| 0.026271
| 89,469.686022
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
LhgZ9ZqU0E
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-yh25SpQ5ER
|
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 66 and 67?
| null | 1,737,904,849,227
| 1,738,510,482,757
| 1,738,510,487,945
|
NO
| 0.210023
| 1,260.574
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY
|
did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-8d38660948d1
|
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
| null | 1,715,707,178,633
| 1,735,711,140,000
| 1,735,711,454,603
|
NO
| 0.211221
| 16,797.048082
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
S5SdSUqIS9
|
will-mathieu-van-der-poel-lead-the
|
Will Mathieu van der Poel lead the 2025 Criterium du Dauphine after Stage 4?
| null | 1,749,615,210,411
| 1,749,650,400,000
| 1,749,660,871,352
|
NO
| 0.322954
| 1,372.428571
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
8NLypCtqpN
|
in-february-will-the-israel-defence
|
In February, will the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) carry out โฅ5 fatal airstrikes in Gaza whilst a ceasefire is active?
| null | 1,737,124,534,364
| 1,740,787,140,000
| 1,743,534,717,060
|
NO
| 0.231063
| 4,755.216204
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
yPPdunqCIP
|
will-the-standard-deviation-of-the
|
Will the standard deviation of the bets on this question exceed 80?
| null | 1,742,232,499,734
| 1,747,457,940,000
| 1,747,610,804,865
|
YES
| 0.990851
| 2,031.909207
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
O2P9AU0NUL
|
will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-cgSA5ERRnZ
|
Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 199 and 200?
| null | 1,743,528,861,612
| 1,744,148,560,180
| 1,744,148,565,437
|
NO
| 0.171233
| 120
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
lRZgUUl8As
|
iranian-rial-reaches-1-million-to-o
|
Iranian rial reaches 1 million to one USD in unofficial markets by end of 2025
| null | 1,734,542,446,989
| 1,742,304,638,708
| 1,742,304,638,708
|
YES
| 0.77941
| 1,059.706558
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
yQQg6lU6O9
|
will-the-sp-500-recover-by-eoy
|
Will the S&P 500 recover by EOY?
| null | 1,741,973,308,352
| 1,751,054,768,126
| 1,751,054,768,126
|
YES
| 0.99
| 16,909.72515
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
oOXo53dEmCvcKkiXnPLa
|
will-the-aimo-artificial-intelligen
|
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2025?
| null | 1,715,998,610,033
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,753,626,906
|
NO
| 0.088055
| 4,893.405546
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
d1pyc7lyhn
|
will-kim-jong-un-go-abroad-in-2024--cash
|
Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2024?
| null | 1,727,732,633,455
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,761,724,022
|
NO
| 0.01396
| 1,060.393779
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
AAglI5lUNE
|
will-the-bank-of-canada-cut-interes-cO9ERAUhpn
|
Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in Q1 2025?
| null | 1,735,721,603,154
| 1,738,525,508,920
| 1,738,525,508,920
|
YES
| 0.753846
| 75
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
ZlQgA095Pn
|
will-my-net-worth-be-above-m30000-i-EEIqLdlQE0
|
Will my net worth be above แน30,000 in a week?
| null | 1,743,901,382,504
| 1,744,506,000,000
| 1,744,506,004,252
|
NO
| 0.177507
| 291.22703
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
oxcm9yvrs9
|
will-there-be-a-model-with-a-69-cha
|
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
| null | 1,726,732,365,757
| 1,748,169,877,395
| 1,748,169,884,404
|
YES
| 0.955511
| 24,383.124302
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
89PIc5nAII
|
this-market-resolves-to-the-xor-of-8uNAqt99A0
|
This market resolves to the xor of all other markets referencing "Will three different individuals create a market ..."
| null | 1,739,842,297,316
| 1,741,064,340,000
| 1,741,168,391,550
|
NO
| 0.253699
| 5,968.997765
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
685AhZcqII
|
will-alexander-ovechkin-score-a-goa
|
Will Alexander Ovechkin score a goal in his first game back?
| null | 1,733,796,670,420
| 1,735,711,140,000
| 1,749,500,170,884
|
YES
| 0.380287
| 330
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
wfwdyj6y6m
|
will-jimmy-carter-attend-the-state
|
Will Trevor Levin of Harvard bet on a Jimmy Carter market?
| null | 1,727,990,885,037
| 1,751,249,694,151
| 1,751,249,694,151
|
NO
| 0.097064
| 205
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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