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ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA SOCIAL PROTECTION (AMENDMENT) BILL, 20201 NO. OF 2021 No. of 2021 2 Social Protection (Amendment) Bill 2021 Social Protection (Amendment) Bill 2021 3 No. of 2021 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA SOCIAL PROTECTION (AMENDMENT) BILL, 2021 ARRANGEMENT OF CLAUSES CLAUSES 1. 2.
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2. Short title .................................................................................................................................. 4 Interpretation ............................................................................................................................ 4 3. Amendment of section 5 – Establishment of the Board ........................................................... 4 4.
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Amendment of section 6 – Constitution of the Board .............................................................. 4 5. Amendment of section 39 – Composition of the Commission ................................................. 4 6. Amendment of section 44 - Meetings ...................................................................................... 5 7. Amendment of section 54 – Specific eligibility criteria ........................................................... 5 No.
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of 2021 4 Social Protection (Amendment) Bill 2021 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA SOCIAL PROTECTION (AMENDMENT) BILL, 2021 NO. OF 2021 AN ACT to amend the Social Protection Act 2020, No. 22 of 2020 and for other connected purposes. ENACTED by the Parliament of Antigua and Barbuda as follows: 1. Short title This Act may be cited as the Social Protection (Amendment) Act 2021. 2. Interpretation In this Act, “principal Act” means the Social Protection Act 2020, No. 22 of 2020. 3.
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22 of 2020. 3. Amendment of section 5 – Establishment of the Board Section 5 of the principal Act is amended by repealing the word “seven” and replacing this with the word “ten”. 4. Amendment of section 6 – Constitution of the Board Section 6 (1) of the principal Act is amended by inserting immediately after paragraph (g) a new paragraph as follows – “(h) three ordinary members appointed by the Minister” 5.
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Amendment of section 39 – Composition of the Commission Section 39 of the principal Act is amended as follows – (a) by repealing subsection (1) and replacing it as follows: “(1) The Commission shall comprise 10 commissioners who shall be appointed on such terms and conditions as the Minister may specify.” (b) by repealing subsection (3) and replacing it as follows: “(3) The Commission consists of: (a) the Director (b) a member from Barbuda; Social Protection (Amendment) Bill 2021 5 No.
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of 2021 (c) a member nominated by the Minister with responsibility for health; (d) a member nominated by the Minister with responsibility for finance; (e) a member nominated by the Minister with responsibility for education; (f) a member nominated by the Minister with responsibility for labour; (g) four members nominated by the Minister” 6.
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Amendment of section 44 - Meetings Section 44 (6) of the principal Act is amended by repealing the words “5 commissioners” and replacing these with the words “7 commissioners”. 7. Amendment of section 54 – Specific eligibility criteria Section 54(2) of the principal Act is amended by repealing the word “National”. Passed by the House of Representatives Passed by the Senate this day of 2021 this day of , 2021 Speaker President Clerk to the House of Representatives Clerk to the Senate No.
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of 2021 6 Social Protection (Amendment) Bill 2021 EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM The objective of this amendment is to allow for an increase in the membership of persons appointed to the Social Protection Board and the Social Protection Commission and for the making of consequential and other minor amendments to the Act. Clause 1 and 2: Short title and Interpretation: Upon passing, this Bill will be referred to as the Social Protection (Amendment) Act 2021.
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It is an amendment to the Social Protection Act 2020, No. 22/2020 Clause 3: Amendment of section 5 of the principal Act dealing with the Establishment of the Board. The overall membership of the Board is increased from seven to ten members. Clause 4: Amendment of section 6 – Constitution of the Board, the law now makes provision for three (3) ordinary members to be added to the Board. Clause 5: Amendment of section 39- Composition of the Commission.
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Previously, the Commission comprised seven members, this has been increased to ten members. The additional 3 members are to be appointed by the Minister. Clause 6: Amendment of section 44 – Meetings. The Quorum for meetings now set at 5 commissioners has been increased to 7 commissioners as a result of the increased membership. Clause 7: Amendment of section 54 – Specific eligibility criteria.
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The Act refers to the establishment of a social protection Commission and not a National Social Protection Commission. Hence the word “National” which appears in the name of the Commission in this section is now deleted. Minister with responsibility for National Security Hon. Dean Jonas, Printed for HoR Sitting: 28.01.2021 S4:S1
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LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Export Duty (CAP. 162 1 CHAPTER 162 T H E E X P O R T DUTY A C T Arrangement of Sections Section 1. Short title. 2. Interpretation. 3 . Duty on articles in Schedule. 4. By whom duty payable. 5. Declaration of shipment. 6. Non-payment of duty. 7. Cabinet may make interim order. 8. Interim order to be confirmed, amended or revoked by Parliament. 9. Excess duty to be refunded when order expires. 10. Refund of deposit. 1 1. Exemption. SCHEDULE.
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Refund of deposit. 1 1. Exemption. SCHEDULE. E X P O R T DUTY 111941. S.R.O. 6511978. 1811989. 1. This Act may be cited as the Export Duty Act. 2. In this Act- Interpretation. "Comptroller of Customs" includes any Customs Officer. 2 CAP. 162) Export Duty LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Duty o n articles in Schedule. Schedule. 3.
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Schedule. 3. There shall be raised, levied, collected and paid for the use of the Government, in aid of the general revenue, upon the articles enumerated in the Schedule on the export thereof from Antigua and Barbuda a duty at the rate specified in such Schedule. By whom duty payable. 4. All duties payable under this Act shall be paid by the shipper or exporter and for the purposes of this Act the term shipper includes in the case of a steam or motor vessel the agent or the owner of such vessel.
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Declaration of shipment. 5. (1) T h e shipper o r exporter of any article enumerated in the Schedule shall deliver to the Comptroller of Customs a declaration containing particulars as regards. the weight or quantity of any shipment made by him on the form duly provided by the Comptroller of Customs for the purpose. Non-payment of duty. Cabinet may make interim order.
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Cabinet may make interim order. * (2) Any person failing to make such declaration o r making a false declaration shall be guilty of an offence and shall be liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding three thousand dollars. 6.
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6. Any person refusing or neglecting to pay the duty imposed by this Act within seventy-two hours after the exportation of any article enumerated in the Schedule shall be guilty of an offence and shall be liable on summary conviction to a fine not exceeding three thousand dollars in addition to being liable for tKe amount of the duty. 7.
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The Cabinet may by order add new items to the Schedule or increase, reduce, abolish or otherwise alter the export duty leviable on the items set out therein; and from the date of the publication of such order in the Gazette and until the expiry of such order as hereinafter provided, the duties specified in such order shall be payable in lieu of any duties payable prior thereto: Provided that where any duty is reduced by such order, the shipper or exporter by whom any goods liable to the reduced duty are intended to be exported shall pay the reduced duty and in addition shall deposit with the Comptroller of Customs the difference between the duty payable prior to the date of the order and the duty payable LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Export Duty (CAP.
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162 3 under the order until the order expires as hereinafter provided. 8. Every order issued by the Cabinet under section 7 Interim order to shall be submitted to Parliament, and Parliament may by amended or resolution confirm, amend or revoke such order, and upon revoked by Parliament. publication of the resolution of Parliament in the Gazette the resolution shall have effect and the order shall then expire. be confirmed, 9.
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be confirmed, 9. SO much of the duties as shall have been paid under Excess duty to be the order of the Cabinet as may be in excess of the duties payable immediately after the expiry of such order shall be repaid to the persons who paid the same. refunded when expires. 10.
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refunded when expires. 10. So much of any sums which have been deposited :;:$.of in accordance with the proviso to section 7 as, together with the duty paid, shall be equal to the duties payable after the expiry of the order, shall be brought to account by the Comptroller of Customs as duties of customs, and the balance, if any, shall be refunded to the depositor. 1 . T h e provisions of this Act shall apply only to Exemption.
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articles which are the growth, produce or manufacture of Antigua and Barbuda. SCHEDULE No. Article Rate of Duty 1 . Bartes-commercially pure ....... per ton one dollar 2. Cotton Lint-clean ................. per Ib. four cents :'I. 4. Molasses - fancy ................ per 100 gals. sixty cents 1,obsters ............................. per lb. fifty cents 5. Sugar ................................ per ton six dollars 0 . Fish .................................. per lb. ten cents.
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LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court (CAP. 143A (Rate of Pension of Judges) 1 CHAPTER 143A T H E EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPREME C O U R T (RATE O F PENSION O F JUDGES) ACT Arrangement of Sections Section 1. Short title and commencement. 2. Interpretation. 3. Rate of pension. 4. Reduced Pension. 5. Gratuity on death in office. 6. Widow's Pension. T H E EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPREME C O U R T (RATE O F PENSION O F JUDGES) (1st July, 1989.) 611990. 1.
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611990. 1. This Act may be cited as the Eastern Caribbean short title and commencement. Supreme Court (Rate of Pension of Judges) Act and shall be deemed to have come into operation on the 1st day of July, 1989. 2. In this Act- Interpretation. "Judge" means the Chief Justice, a Justice of Appeal or a Puisne Judge of the High Court, as the case may be. LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 2 CAP. 143A) The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court (Rate o f Pension of Judges) Rate of pension. 3.
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3. As from the date of the commencement hereof, the pension payable to a Judge upon his retirement in pensionable circumstances shall be computed as follows- (a) In the case of the Chief Justice, if he has had continuous service as a Judge for a period of not less than ten years, at a rate equivalent to his full annual pensionable emoluments at the date of his retirement.
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I n any other case, he shall receive a pension at a rate 3/4 of his full annual pensionable equivalent to emoluments; (6) In the case of a Justice of Appeal, if he has had continuous service as a Judge for a period of not less than twelve years, at a rate equivalent to his full annual pensionable emoluments at the date of his retirement.
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In any other case, he shall receive a pension at a rate 3/4 of his full annual pensionable equivalent emoluments; to (c) In the case of a Puisne Judge of the High Court, if he has had continuous service as a Judge for a period of not less than fifteen years, at a rate equivalent to his full annual pensionable emoluments at the date of his retirement.
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In any other case, he shall receive a pension at a rate equivalent to 3/4 of his full annual pensionable emoluments; (d) Nothing contained in this Act shall operate to prevent a Judge from opting to have his pension computed under the provisions of the Pensions Act, in lieu of the provisions of this Act. 4.
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4. A Judge upon retirement may opt to receive in lieu of the full pension computed under this Act a reduced pension at a rate equivalent to 3/4 of the full pension plus a gratuity equal to 15 times f/4 of the full pension. 5.
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5. Where a person dies while holding office as a Judge, there shall be paid to his widow a gratuity of an amount equivalent to the gratuity to which the person aforesaid had the right to opt to receive on the assumption that he retired at the date of his death, or one year's salary whichever is greater. If he dies without leaving a widow, the sum ascer- tained as above, shall be paid to his legal personal representatives. Cap. 311. Reduced Pension. Gratuity on death in office.
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Reduced Pension. Gratuity on death in office. LAWS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA The Eastern Caribbean Supreme Court (CAP. 143A 3 (Rate of Pension of Judfes) 6.
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143A 3 (Rate of Pension of Judfes) 6. (1) Where a person dies while holding office as a Judge, or while entitled to or in receipt of a pension under this or any other Act, there shall be paid to his widow a pension at a rate equivalent to (s) the annual pension to which such person aforesaid was entitled, or was in receipt of, provided that such pension shall cease in the event of the remarriage of the widow.
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(2) The provisions of this section shall apply to the widows of all Judges who are surviving at the date of the commencement of this Act. In addition, each such surviv- ing widow shall be paid forthwith a gratuity equivalent to one year's salary of which the Judge was in receipt at the time of his death. (3) A person who retires in circumstances other than under the provisions of this Act, shall be entitled to have his pension computed under the provisions of the Pensions Cap. 311. Act.
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2 Productivity growth and its importance The economic concept of productivity 2.1 Productivity is the measure of production efficiency.1 At a national level it captures the economy’s ability to ‘harness its physical and human resources to generate output and income’.2 Productivity growth refers to an increase in the value of outputs produced for a given level of inputs, over a given period of time.
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2.2 The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) explained: In a very general sense, the best way to think about productivity is by thinking of production. You can have increased production from an increase in inputs, you can have increased production due to a more efficient use of those inputs or a combination of both of those things. In a growth accounting framework you can in simple terms measure productivity by looking at the ratio of output to one or more inputs.
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When you decompose it, in a sense, productivity is actually the residual of that calculation.3 2.3 The main theoretical approach to studying productivity is based on ‘formal growth theory’, where output growth is expressed as a function of growth in inputs and growth in the efficiency with which inputs are transformed into outputs. 1 Productivity Commission (PC), Submission no. 20, p. 1. 2 PC, A Quick Guide to the Productivity Commission, 2009. p.1.
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3 Mr J Russo, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 21. 10 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY 2.4 2.5 2.6 Different approaches to calculating productivity growth can be used, with the ‘neoclassical’ model treating growth as exogenous (based on capital accumulation and national savings); and ‘new growth theory’ incorporating growth as endogenous (through technical change, research and development and capability building activities).
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Productivity as a component of economic growth models did not surface until the post Second World War era.4 As such it was not closely monitored as an economic measure until the 1960s, coinciding with a time when Australia’s productivity growth was relatively rapid. During the 1980s, economic policy direction in Australia embraced the ‘new growth theory’.
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This was characterised by the endorsement of competitive and flexible markets as the means to securing the most productive use of the nation’s resources. The movement to economic management through new growth theory was based on the belief that this would deliver the economy a growth dividend and better living standards.
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The components of productivity 2.7 There are three commonly used measures of productivity: (cid:132) Partial Factor Productivity (PFP)—examples are capital productivity (measured as GDP per unit of capital)5 and labour productivity. Labour productivity is the most used PFP measure. It is usually measured as the volume of output per hour worked.6 Other measures of labour productivity used (mainly for international comparisons) include the value of output (GDP) per employee or per capita.
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Estimating labour productivity is a relatively straightforward exercise.
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The PC notes three reasons for this: ...it is easier to measure as it avoids the need to estimate capital inputs and avoids the need to aggregate capital estimates and hours worked… a rough measure of labour productivity for the entire economy can easily be obtained by dividing GDP by official estimates of total hours worked in the economy (there are no official estimates of capital inputs for the whole economy)…and it 4 The Harrod-Domar model, developed between 1939 and 1946, first included productivity as a component of economic growth.
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The model was refined and independently published in 1956 by American economist Robert Solow and Australian economist Trevor Swann. 5 ABS, Submission no. 16, p. 2. 6 ABS, Submission no. 16, p. 2.
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16, p. 2. 6 ABS, Submission no. 16, p. 2. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 11 allows for a comparison of levels of labour productivity (value added per hour worked) between different parts of the economy or between different economies.7 (cid:132) Total Factor Productivity (TFP)—this is a true measure of productivity which encompasses all the factors of the productivity equation.
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As it is very difficult to measure all the factors of productivity a proxy measure was developed to take account of multiple factors, but not all factors. This is known as multifactor productivity. (cid:132) Multifactor productivity (MFP)—the volume of output from a bundle of both labour and capital inputs. Estimating MFP is a complex exercise. In simple terms, it involves the construction of three separate indexes for labour, capital and output.
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The contributions of labour and capital are weighted according to their respective input contributions, usually measured in value of payments to the factors of production. The calculation of productivity growth is the residual of any difference between the level of output growth and the level of input growth. Labour productivity is only a partial measure as it does not take account of the contribution of other factors of production.
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As such, it needs to be interpreted carefully as changes in labour productivity may reflect factors that are outside of workers’ influence (for example, improved capital input). MFP provides the better indicator of the overall improvement in an economy’s efficiency, as it measures the growth in economic output above that directly attributable to growth in measured capital and labour inputs.
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In other words, MFP informs whether GDP growth originates from productivity growth or merely from increased inputs of labour or capital.8 As such, it captures the influence of improvements in production-related factors such as skills, technology, and management practices that are not incorporated in official capital and labour measures.
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The Treasury states: MFP reflects technological changes, as well as a range of non- technological factors such as industry and firm level adjustment, economies of scale and cyclical effects (OECD 2001a).9 2.8 2.9 2.10 While estimates of output and hours worked are published for the whole economy, productivity is only well-measured in the part the ABS calls the 7 PC, Submission no. 20, p. 1. 8 ABS, Submission no. 16, p. 2. 9 The Treasury, Submission no. 10, p. 4.
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9 The Treasury, Submission no. 10, p. 4. 12 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY 2.11 2.12 ‘market sector’. A detailed description of the market sector is at paragraph 2.58. In these market-sector industries, prices are indicators of quality that can be used to compare the value of new goods and services to that of the old versions they replace.
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For industries outside the market sector —health, education, government administration and property and business services — it is more difficult to separate price changes from changes in the quality and quantity of services. In addition, the voluntary sector is not incorporated in official measures. The proportion of the economy which falls within the non-market sector has grown considerably over the last twenty years.
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In 2008-09 the services sector comprised 72.3 per cent of GDP; whereas it was 63% of GDP in 1983-84. In contrast, the proportion of the economy in the market-sector which the ABS includes in national productivity growth calculations has declined since 1994-95, going from around 73 per cent of GDP to 62 per cent of GDP in 2008-09.10 2.13 For the purposes of this report productivity refers to MFP unless stated otherwise.
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Productivity growth is not production growth 2.14 2.15 Productivity is often confused with production. Productivity is the measure of how efficient the production process is, irrespective of the stand-alone quality or quantity of output, or the stand-alone quality or quantity of inputs in that production process. It is a relative concept and can only be determined when assessing per unit output derived from per unit inputs in the production process.
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This means that productivity will rise when inputs in the production process are optimally utilised to achieve greater levels of output. Achieving productivity gains is therefore not equivalent to working longer (eg longer labour hours) as this will result in a measure of greater inputs for every output. Nor does it necessarily correlate with higher volumes of outputs – as inputs could be increasing at the same or greater pace. 10 PC, Submission no. 16.1, p. 3.
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10 PC, Submission no. 16.1, p. 3. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 13 Productivity levels versus productivity growth rates 2.16 2.17 Similarly, productivity levels are sometimes confused with the rate of growth of the productivity level. The calculation of both labour productivity and MFP provides estimates of the level of productivity. Analysis of trends in productivity levels tends to focus on growth rates.
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Year-to-year changes in productivity growth can be volatile (reflecting changes in market conditions or the influence of the business cycle)—as a result, most research focuses on longer-term comparative changes, such as business-cycle to business-cycle or growth over a decade. Productivity cycles 2.18 2.19 Snapshots of productivity growth between specific periods of time are referred to as productivity cycles.
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The last complete cycle ended in 2003-04 with productivity in that cycle averaging 1.1 per cent.11 The current cycle, since 2004, is considered incomplete, but to 2007-08 it has recorded negative growth of -0.3 per cent.12 International measurement agencies follow the convention of using an arbitrary productivity period for comparison purposes. These are average growth rates between growth-cycle peaks, which are determined as peak deviations of the market sector MFP index from its long-term trend.
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Although productivity cycles of peak-to-peak productivity often correlate to the business cycle this is incidental to their determination. Productivity cycles cannot be determined until after the cycle is completed.
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2.20 This practice has been criticised by Professor John Quiggin as creating distortions in the measurement of productivity growth: Although much was made of the claimed productivity ‘miracle’ in the mid-1990s, these claims depended critically on the way in which the time series was divided into hypothetical ‘productivity cycles’.13 11 ABS, Australian System of National Accounts, Cat. no. 5204.0, 2007-08, p. 43. 12 ABS, Australian System of National Accounts, Cat. no. 5204.0, 2007-08, p. 42.
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no. 5204.0, 2007-08, p. 42. (The average of 2004-05 of -0.6 per cent, 2005-06 of 0.3 per cent, 2006-07 of -0.3 per cent and 2007-08 of -0.4 per cent.) 13 Professor J Quiggin, Submission no. 28, p. 1.
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13 Professor J Quiggin, Submission no. 28, p. 1. 14 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY The importance of productivity growth 2.21 An often quoted summary of the importance of productivity growth is that of distinguished US economist Paul Krugman: Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything. A country's ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise its output per worker.
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World War II veterans came home to an economy that doubled its productivity over the next 25 years; as a result, they found themselves achieving living standards their parents had never imagined.
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Vietnam veterans came home to an economy that raised its productivity less than 10 percent in 15 years; as a result, they found themselves living no better - and in many cases worse - than their parents.14 2.22 Productivity growth at an economy-wide level means more aggregate outputs per aggregate inputs, which translates to greater returns on total inputs, thus more income is available to share around.
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The ABS notes: Key to long term improvements in Australia’s living standards is productivity growth and therefore enhancing national productivity is one of the basic goals of economic policy.15 2.23 At an industry level, productivity growth can be important to allow the industry to compete with other sectors of the economy for resources (labour, capital and raw materials) and maintain international competitiveness.16 2.24 It is important to note, however, that some sectors of the economy have traditionally had low productivity growth but are vitally important to aggregate productivity growth, for example, the health and education sectors.
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The outcomes from these sectors become the inputs to all sectors in the form of skilled, educated and healthy workers. This is also a reminder that government policies which only focus on sectors exhibiting productivity growth could be at the detriment of supporting productivity growth as a whole.
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The Productivity Commission (PC) stated: If policy were directed at moving and supporting high productivity sectors, you would find that you were not actually 14 Krugman, P, The Age of Diminished Expectations: US Economic Policy in the 1980s, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1992, p. 9. 15 ABS, Submission no. 16, p. 2. 16 Master Builders Australia, Submission no. 17, p. 4.
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17, p. 4. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 15 supporting the sectors that in the long term were so important to wellbeing and living standards.17 2.25 At a firm level, productivity growth is important because it can allow the firm to remain competitive within the industry, through paying higher wages or returns to shareholders or to provide funds for investment.
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2.26 2.27 Raising productivity has been a focus for governments over the last two decades, particularly with the transition to a more open economy as levels of protection have fallen, or have been removed and the greater flows of foreign capital and production links in the economy. The importance of having robust national productivity has increased since the worldwide economic downturn and the emergence of new demographic and environmental challenges.
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The Chairman of the PC stated in evidence: It will also affect how well the country recovers from the impact of the global financial crisis as well as its capacity to meet longer term challenges such as population ageing and climate change.18 2.28 The challenges ahead for productivity growth are discussed in further detail in Chapter 5. Economic growth 2.29 The measure of production for an economy as a whole is gross domestic product (GDP).
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GDP is the sum, for a particular period, of the gross value added of all resident producers, where gross value added is equal to output (value of goods and services produced at economically significant prices) less intermediate consumption (value of goods and services consumed in the production process).19 2.30 Economic growth is measured by the change in the level of real gross domestic product from one measurement period to another.
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2.31 Although Australia is still a relatively young country it is now a mature developed economy. It was, however, up until mid last century, subject to the developing industrialised economy pattern. This was characterised by a small population with steady population growth up until the post war ‘baby boom era’ coupled with an economy focussed on a rich endowment 17 Mr G Banks, PC, Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 6. 18 Mr G Banks, PC, Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 2.
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19 ABS, Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, Cat. no. 5216.0, 2000, p. 20. 16 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY of natural resources. This led to very high economic growth in the 1950s and 1960s, with per capita growth rates around four per cent per annum.
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2.32 However, an economy highly reliant on the production of commodities with relatively low income elasticities of demand may have difficulty maintaining very high levels of economic growth on that basis alone.
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This was the story in Australia in the late 1970s, early 1980s when real GDP started to fall and annual per capita growth rates fell to around two per cent.20 2.33 At an economy-wide level, the importance of continuing to achieve historically high rates of productivity growth can be seen in the difference between projections (and associated outcomes) in recent Treasury documents: (cid:132) The sensitivity of the budget bottom line of a negative scenario modelled as part of the 2009-10 Budget Papers — a combination of an equal 0.5 per cent decrease in the participation rate and in labour productivity, resulting in a 1 per cent decrease in real GDP by Year 2 — is to decrease in the underlying cash balance of around $2.5 billion in Year 1 and around $4.0 billion in Year 2;21 (cid:132) The Australian Treasury forecasts that achieving long-term productivity growth of only 1.2 per cent to 2046-47 (below an historical rate of 1.75 per cent) would see a fall in income (GDP per capita) of almost 20 per cent.
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In contrast, achieving long-term productivity growth of 2 per cent to 2046-47 would see a rise in income (GDP per capita) of around 10 per cent.22 2.34 The historical average for labour productivity growth over the last three decades has been 1.6 per cent, which attributed to most of the increase in GDP over this time.23 Living standards 2.35 Realising improved living standards or maintaining high living standards is the main reason why governments strive to improve economy-wide productivity growth.
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20 Steve Dowrick, The Determinants of Long-Run Growth, Proceedings of a Conference—Productivity and Growth, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), July 1995, p.12. 21 Budget Strategy and Outlook 2009-10, Budget Paper No. 1, The Treasury, p. 3-21. 22 The Treasury, Intergenerational Report 2007, p. 99. 23 The Treasury, Intergenerational Report 2010, p. 21. Also, The Treasury, Submission no. 10, p.3.
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Also, The Treasury, Submission no. 10, p.3. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 17 2.36 2.37 In order to improve or maintain living standards and maintain fiscal health, an economy must improve long-term economic growth. Productivity growth is one contributor of improved economic growth.
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Per capita incomes across world regions, but particularly in Western Europe and Western off-shoots have risen dramatically over the last 60 years.24 These increases were accompanied by other improvements in well-being and quality of life.25 2.38 What constitutes higher living standards is not clearly defined. This is because there are qualitative as well as quantitative factors involved.
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Therefore, it can be argued that increased income per capita may not necessarily equal higher living standards; and this can be further complicated by unequal distribution of wealth in the economy. 2.39 However, from an economic viewpoint, living standards are assessed by the ability of a country to produce or acquire the goods and services it demands, and this is mostly measured using GDP per capita.
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Although not a perfect measure of overall living standards, it is a quantifiable and internationally comparable approximation.26 The ABS supported the quality of GDP as a measure, explaining that ‘generally it is accepted as a reasonably robust and established measurement.’27 Mr Davies emphasised the international comparability of the national accounts in that ‘they are more widespread than electricity and telephone plugs’.28 There is also an argument for using GDP per capita to determine living standards because a country with higher GDP per capita will tend to have better social and environmental outcomes, ergo the wellbeing of its people will be high.29 Productivity growth is a critical factor in attaining high living standards; however other frameworks conducive to achieving high average incomes must also be in place.
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2.40 2.41 2.42 One example of this is where a country has productivity gains without strong labour utilisation. This was summarised in a 2007 PC Staff Working 24 RBA, 50th Anniversary Symposium, Sydney 9 February 2010, “Increased Understanding of Supply Side Economics”, Anne O Krueger, Professor of International Economics, John Hopkins University, Ritch Professor Emeritus, Stanford University, Table 1, p. 32.
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25 Including life expectancy increases of around 10 years in industrialised countries and a doubling of literacy rates. 26 Wellbeing and productivity measures are discussed in Chapter 8. 27 Mr M Davies, ABS, Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 26. 28 Mr M Davies, ABS, Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 26.
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29 OECD, OECD in Figures: Statistics on Member Countries, Paris , 2002 18 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY Paper.30 The paper noted that productivity growth in Norway in 2002 (abundant oil extraction production) was leading the productivity frontier, but that poor labour utilisation had reduced average welfare in the economy.31 A number of other European countries also recorded stronger productivity growth than the US but the PC concluded that the US was more appropriately at the productivity frontier because it had productivity improvements through technological progress, not merely through policy or industry distortions.
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Professor Quiggin supported this view: You see, for example, in the data that countries which score very well on productivity numbers often do not do so well on employment. What that suggests is that some of the more problematic participants in the labour force in all countries tend to be shunted out of the workforce.
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The more that happens, the more your measured productivity can increase, but that is obviously not a socially desirable way of proceeding.32 2.43 Dr de Brouwer of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet supported the view that boosting productivity is not desirable where it comes at the expense of workforce participation: Economists generally, and others, would say that the wellbeing of people is also enhanced by participating in society and participating in the workforce.
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There is a stronger sense of belonging, of social cohesion, that goes with that, and it is also important in its own right. So we would not use a very narrow metric of, ‘Is it just increasing productivity?’ There may be economic output increases from participation, which are important, but also the value of people—their sense of self-worth and their wellbeing—is also enhanced by that participation, and that is a broader measure.
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So that would certainly be in the national interest.33 2.44 The Treasury agree that workforce participation is indeed another component of achieving growth in living standards, as well as population growth. Their submission shows, however, that the contribution of labour 30 Dolman, B, Parham, D, Zheng, S, Can Australia Match US Productivity Performance? PC Staff Working Paper, March 2007, p. 12 31 Dolman, B, Parham, D, Zheng, S, Can Australia Match US Productivity Performance?
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PC Staff Working Paper, March 2007, p. 12 32 Professor J Quiggin, Transcript, 19 November 2009, p. 18. 33 Dr G de Brouwer, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Transcript, 4 February 2010, p. 13.
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PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 19 productivity in Australia since 1977-78 has far exceeded the contribution of population and participation.34 2.45 Australia has experienced a favourable shift in the terms of trade over the past decade which has raised prosperity for Australians by delivering higher purchasing power.
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The question which has arisen is whether Australia can rely on favourable terms of trade (due mostly to our rich resource endowments) for future prosperity, or whether increasing productivity growth is required.
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2.46 History reveals that changes in Australia’s terms of trade between 1960 and 2004 have contributed less than five per cent to the increase in real income, yet real income over the same period has increased by almost four fold.35 Productivity improvements during this time have been cited as the ‘largest single source of improvements in real income followed by labour force increases and capital stock increases’.36 The Chairman of the PC stated that over the past four decades MFP growth had ‘directly accounted for over one-third of total real income growth in Australia, with the remaining growth attributable to growth in labour and capital and changes in the terms of trade, with the terms of trade being dominant in more recent times.’37 2.47 It must be borne in mind that a large part of this period was not characterised by the resources boom of the recent ‘noughties’ magnitude and that real income improvements in this century can be largely attributed to this.
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Income improvements through price effects reflect a cyclical trend rather than a structural trend and long-term growth depends on sustainability. Committee conclusion 2.48 Productivity growth is an economic concept derived from national accounting statistics designed to give a measure of efficiency in economic activity. It is not a concept which directly takes into account contributions outside the market sector. The committee notes that although unpaid 34 The Treasury, Submission no. 10, p. 3.
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10, p. 3. 35 W. Erwin Diewert, Denis Lawrence and Meyrick and Associates, Measuring the Contributions of Productivity and Terms of Trade to Australia’s Economic Welfare, Consultancy Report, Report to the PC, March 2006, p. ix. 36 W. Erwin Diewert, Denis Lawrence and Meyrick and Associates, Measuring the Contributions of Productivity and Terms of Trade to Australia’s Economic Welfare, Consultancy Report, Report to the PC, March 2006, p. ix. 37 Mr G Banks, PC, Transcript, 23 October 2009, p. 2.
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20 INQUIRY INTO RAISING THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH RATE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY productivity contributions are not identified in the productivity function they may be potentially reflected within the aggregate MFP measure in the ‘unmeasured’ component. Unpaid productivity growth contributions will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 7.
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2.49 Healthy aggregate productivity growth means that an economy is making efficient use of its resources to produce a given level of outputs which therefore results in higher living standards. Productivity growth is vitally important in a developed economy to obtain strong economic growth (GDP growth) and thus high GDP per capita. 2.50 GDP per capita is the most internationally recognised measure of living standards.
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Although there is considerable debate over whether real GDP per capita is an appropriate measure for overall community wellbeing it is a widely recognised and comparable measure. OECD analysis has also found that higher GDP per capita tends to correlate with higher social and environmental living standards as well as higher income standards. 2.51 Whilst long-term productivity growth is very important for the future growth of an economy, it cannot be the only goal.
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There are other features of an economy which are necessary to lead to overall improvements in prosperity and distribution of that wealth. 2.52 Australia is heading into an era where economic resources will become ever more constrained and need to be utilised in a smarter way. Australian businesses must be vigilant to ensure underlying firm productivity is robust, and all levels of government should ensure policies encourage aggregate productivity growth.
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This is because long-term prosperity relies on ‘achieving more with a given quantity of resources, or equivalently achieving constant results with a lower resource footprint.’38 The official productivity measures What they are designed to measure 2.53 Official productivity estimates are designed to measure productivity in the income generating economy. They are, as the ABS pointed out at a public 38 Professor R Cooper & Professor J Sheen, Submission no. 15, p. 1.
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15, p. 1. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE 21 hearing in October 2009, ‘economic statistics’.39 Mr Don Brunker of the PC reinforced this fact: I think it is also worth stepping back and recognising that productivity measures try to serve a particular purpose, and the particular purpose is about efficiency within business organisations.
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