Podos v1 Baseline

Podos is a small baseline transformer model for soccer match prediction.

Model Details

Model Description

  • Developed by: Bettensor | Nickel5
  • Model type: PyTorch Transformer
  • Parameters 276K parameters

Uses

Podos predicts soccer match outcomes based on 23 input parameters including sportsbook odds, recent team performance, win/loss streak, and more.

Direct Use

For direct use, download the source pytorch class, label_encoder (optional), and load the model.

PodosTransformer.from_pretrained("Bettensor/podos_soccer_model")

The label encoder contains the id mappings to all teams the model was trained on. Ensure you have Torch installed with:

pip install torch

scikit-learn version 1.4.2 if you want to use the label_encoder:

pip install scikit-learn==1.4.2

newer versions of sklearn may work but are untested.

You also need HuggingFace_hub and safetensors, install with:

pip install huggingface_hub

pip install safetensors

model expects 23 parameters for input, with team names mapped as ids:

  • HS - Home shots
  • AS - Away shots
  • HST - Home shots on target
  • AST - Away shots on target
  • HC - Home corners
  • AC - Away corners
  • HO - Home offsides
  • AO - Away offsides
  • HY - Home yellow card
  • AY - Away yellow cards
  • HR - Home red cards
  • AR - Away red cards
  • oddsH - Home win odds
  • oddsD - Draw odds
  • oddsA - Away win odds
  • home_encoded - Home team id
  • away_encoded - Away team id
  • WinStreakHome - Home win streak
  • LossStreakHome - home loss streak
  • WinStreakAway - Away win streak
  • LossStreakAway - Away loss streak
  • HomeTeamForm - Home team recent performance
  • AwayTeamForm - Away team recent performance

The label_encoder currently contains mappings for 569 unique teams

Downstream Use

Model is available to use with Bettensor at https://github.com/Bettensor/bettensor

Bias, Risks, and Limitations

podos v1 presents some home team bias, and may provide overconfident scores to its predicted outcome.

Recommendations/Future work

  • reduce bias by encoding home field advantage
  • more teams and leagues, especially with more rigorous performance metrics
  • Additional layers for larger input size
  • team embedding layers
  • individual player performance

Training Data

Model was trained on 100,000 games with 569 individual teams.

Model Card Authors

qucat | Nickel5

Model Card Contact

www.nickel5.com

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