tables/pairwise_SQL.csv

model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111
Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115
Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.11,0.081,0.141
Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.131,0.103,0.16
Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168
Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.127,0.097,0.159
Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.208,0.18,0.236
Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.34,0.288,0.386
Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.38
Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.562,0.466,0.655
Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.495
Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521
Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.583,0.684
Chronos-2,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.638,0.581,0.687
TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06
TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022
TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052
TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.053,0.036,0.072
TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08
TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.049,0.005,0.092
TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.85,0.96,0.137,0.107,0.169
TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.281,0.232,0.328
TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.277,0.237,0.32
TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.524,0.417,0.626
TiRex,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.393,0.339,0.445
TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479
TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.605,0.547,0.653
TiRex,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.606,0.545,0.655
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062
TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01
TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.025,0.001,0.048
TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.047,0.026,0.069
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075
TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.043,-0.005,0.087
TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.925,0.875,0.97,0.132,0.103,0.161
TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.276,0.222,0.327
TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.272,0.232,0.319
TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.521,0.413,0.624
TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.389,0.331,0.446
TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474
TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.602,0.543,0.65
TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.604,0.542,0.653
Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.124,-0.164,-0.088
Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01
Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.34,0.53,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001
Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.51,0.685,0.023,0.002,0.045
Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.475,0.655,0.03,0.001,0.055
Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.019,-0.033,0.07
Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.745,0.895,0.11,0.074,0.147
Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.258,0.2,0.309
Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.254,0.207,0.305
Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.51,0.402,0.614
Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.373,0.31,0.431
Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.354,0.465
Toto-1.0,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.532,0.642
Toto-1.0,Drift,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.594,0.53,0.645
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.19,-0.115
Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.056,-0.077,-0.038
Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.027
Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.49,-0.024,-0.047,-0.002
Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.016,0.029
Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.004,-0.055,0.042
Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.855,0.78,0.92,0.089,0.054,0.123
Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.24,0.187,0.292
Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.236,0.189,0.286
Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.5,0.382,0.609
Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.358,0.299,0.415
Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.393,0.343,0.448
Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.583,0.523,0.634
Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.584,0.519,0.636
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123
Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044
Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034
Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.345,0.525,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001
Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.03,0.016
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.63,-0.011,-0.059,0.031
Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.815,0.74,0.89,0.082,0.045,0.116
Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.235,0.184,0.284
Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.92,0.231,0.188,0.277
Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.496,0.379,0.605
Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.354,0.3,0.409
Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441
Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.58,0.524,0.628
Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.581,0.52,0.63
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.146,-0.189,-0.108
TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.052,-0.101,-0.005
TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.045,-0.095,0.005
TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.02,-0.076,0.032
TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.004,-0.044,0.052
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.47,0.37,0.57,0.011,-0.032,0.055
TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.093,0.05,0.135
TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.735,0.645,0.815,0.243,0.19,0.297
TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.239,0.189,0.292
TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.503,0.387,0.611
TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.361,0.302,0.422
TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.396,0.346,0.447
TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.584,0.526,0.636
TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.586,0.521,0.639
Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.263,-0.309,-0.219
Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.095,0.04,0.15,-0.159,-0.203,-0.119
Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.075,0.03,0.125,-0.152,-0.191,-0.115
Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.175,0.105,0.255,-0.124,-0.172,-0.079
Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.145,0.08,0.22,-0.097,-0.14,-0.057
Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.185,0.11,0.26,-0.09,-0.132,-0.047
Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.102,-0.155,-0.053
Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.166,0.096,0.23
Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.162,0.102,0.22
Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.453,0.323,0.576
Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.296,0.226,0.364
Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.334,0.281,0.392
Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.542,0.473,0.598
Sundial-Base,Drift,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.543,0.47,0.602
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.514,-0.63,-0.404
Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.39,-0.488,-0.302
Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.381,-0.485,-0.285
Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.347,-0.448,-0.25
Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.316,-0.412,-0.23
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.307,-0.396,-0.226
Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.265,0.185,0.355,-0.322,-0.423,-0.234
Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.199,-0.298,-0.107
Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.005,-0.049,0.041
Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.365,0.22,0.501
Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.156,0.108,0.208
Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.87,0.202,0.148,0.257
Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.451,0.395,0.503
Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.452,0.394,0.506
AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.507,-0.612,-0.409
AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.383,-0.47,-0.311
AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.374,-0.468,-0.301
AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.341,-0.439,-0.261
AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.309,-0.401,-0.233
AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.08,0.2,-0.3,-0.383,-0.232
AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.315,-0.412,-0.233
AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.193,-0.282,-0.114
AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.005,-0.043,0.047
AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.695,0.615,0.785,0.359,0.211,0.496
AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.16,0.099,0.216
AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.82,0.935,0.206,0.154,0.263
AutoARIMA,Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.454,0.388,0.512
AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.455,0.384,0.516
AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-1.285,-1.897,-0.873
AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.102,-1.673,-0.714
AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.087,-1.662,-0.703
AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-1.041,-1.59,-0.672
AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.999,-1.559,-0.619
AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.983,-1.531,-0.609
AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-1.011,-1.572,-0.632
AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.828,-1.359,-0.478
AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.575,-1.003,-0.282
AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.305,0.215,0.385,-0.56,-0.983,-0.268
AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.345,-0.709,-0.081
AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.545,0.725,-0.268,-0.644,-0.013
AutoETS,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.104,-0.173,0.297
AutoETS,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.103,-0.161,0.297
AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.98,-0.63
AutoTheta,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.646,-0.803,-0.513
AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.636,-0.805,-0.495
AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.596,-0.759,-0.449
AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.07,0.19,-0.558,-0.711,-0.427
AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.547,-0.691,-0.429
AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.565,-0.731,-0.433
AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.42,-0.572,-0.292
AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.184,-0.263,-0.121
AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.19,-0.276,-0.11
AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.257,0.075,0.415
AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.055,-0.038,0.135
AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.35,0.293,0.403
AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.351,0.288,0.408
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745
Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611
Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6
Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548
Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.813,-0.522
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52
Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.655,-0.809,-0.529
Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.502,-0.645,-0.39
Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.275,-0.253,-0.347,-0.174
Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.065,0.18,-0.259,-0.356,-0.182
Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.275,0.455,0.211,0.013,0.392
Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.058,-0.156,0.037
Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.715,0.64,0.785,0.312,0.229,0.386
Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.314,0.222,0.396
Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.758,-2.16,-1.399
Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.532,-1.88,-1.209
Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.516,-1.859,-1.189
Naive,Toto-1.0,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.454,-1.793,-1.135
Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.397,-1.731,-1.095
Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.379,-1.689,-1.099
Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.407,-1.747,-1.111
Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.04,0.16,-1.184,-1.49,-0.898
Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.821,-1.014,-0.653
Naive,AutoARIMA,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.83,-1.05,-0.635
Naive,AutoETS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.116,-0.422,0.148
Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.11,0.25,-0.538,-0.676,-0.414
Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.285,0.215,0.36,-0.454,-0.628,-0.298
Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Drift,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.003,-0.02,0.022
Drift,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.765,-2.19,-1.384
Drift,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.539,-1.898,-1.199
Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.522,-1.883,-1.184
Drift,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.46,-1.816,-1.126
Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-1.403,-1.749,-1.079
Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.386,-1.705,-1.084
Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.413,-1.773,-1.088
Drift,Sundial-Base,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.19,-1.513,-0.886
Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.826,-1.023,-0.65
Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.835,-1.064,-0.623
Drift,AutoETS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.115,-0.423,0.139
Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.542,-0.69,-0.404
Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.458,-0.656,-0.285
Drift,Naive,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.003,-0.023,0.02
Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0