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Model Card for TTM

TTM, also known as TinyTimeMixer, are compact pre-trained models for Time-Series Forecasting, open-sourced by IBM Research. With less than 1 Million parameters, TTM introduces the notion of the first-ever “tiny” pre-trained models for Time-Series Forecasting.

TTM outperforms several popular benchmarks demanding billions of parameters in zero-shot and few-shot forecasting. TTM is pre-trained on diverse public time-series datasets which can be easily fine-tuned for your target data. Refer to our paper for more details.

Note that zeroshot, fine-tuning and inference tasks using TTM can easily be executed in 1 GPU machine or in laptops too!!

Model Description

TTM falls under the category of “focused pre-trained models”, wherein each pre-trained TTM is tailored for a particular forecasting setting (governed by the context length and forecast length). Instead of building one massive model supporting all forecasting settings, we opt for the approach of constructing smaller pre-trained models, each focusing on a specific forecasting setting, thereby yielding more accurate results. Furthermore, this approach ensures that our models remain extremely small and exceptionally fast, facilitating easy deployment without demanding a ton of resources.

Hence, in this model card, we plan to release several pre-trained TTMs that can cater to many common forecasting settings in practice. Additionally, we have released our source code along with our pretraining scripts that users can utilize to pretrain models on their own. Pretraining TTMs is very easy and fast, taking only 3-6 hours using 6 A100 GPUs, as opposed to several days or weeks in traditional approaches.

Model Releases (along with the branch name where the models are stored):

  • 512-96: Given the last 512 time-points (i.e. context length), this model can forecast the next 96 time-points (i.e. forecast length) in future. Recommended for hourly and minutely forecasts (Ex. resolutions 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, etc) (branch name: main)

  • 1024-96: Given the last 1024 time-points (i.e. context length), this model can forecast the next 96 time-points (i.e. forecast length) in future. Recommended for hourly and minutely forecasts (Ex. resolutions 5 min, 10 min, 15 min, etc) (branch name: 1024-96-v1)

  • Stay tuned for more models !

Benchmark Highlights:

TTM outperforms pre-trained GPT4TS (NeurIPS 23) by …

TTM outperforms pre-trained LLMTime (NeurIPS 23) by ..

TTM outperforms pre-trained Time-LLM (NeurIPS 23) by ..

TTM outperform pre-trained MOIRAI by …

TTM outperforms other popular benchmarks by ….

TTM also outperforms the hard statistical baselines (Statistical ensemble and S-Naive) in M4-hourly dataset which pretrained TS models are finding hard to outperform.

Model Details

For more details on TTM architecture and benchmarks, refer to our paper.

TTM-1 currently supports 2 modes:

  • Zeroshot forecasting: Directly apply the pre-trained model on your target data to get an initial forecast (with no training).

  • Finetuned forecasting: Finetune the pre-trained model with your target data to further improve the forecast.

Since, TTM models are extremely small and fast, it is practically very easy to finetune the model with your available target data to get more accurate forecasts.

The current release supports multivariate forecasting via both channel independence and channel-mixing approaches. Decoder Channel-Mixing can be enabled during fine-tuning for capturing strong channel-correlation patterns across time-series variates, critical capability lacking in existing counterparts.

In addition, TTM also supports exogenous infusion and categorical data which is not released as part of this version. Stay tuned for these extended features.

Recommended Use

  1. Users have to standard scale their data before feeding it to the model (Refer to TSP, our data processing utility for data scaling.)
  2. Enabling any upsampling or prepending zeros to virtually increase the context length is not recommended and will impact the model performance.

Model Sources [optional]

  • Repository: [More Information Needed]
  • Paper [optional]: [More Information Needed]

Uses

Direct Use

[More Information Needed]

Downstream Use [optional]

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How to Get Started with the Model

[Point notebooks]

Benchmarks

Training Data

The TTM models were trained on a collection of datasets from the Monash Time Series Forecasting repository. The datasets used include:

Citation [optional]

Kindly cite the following paper, if you intend to use our model or its associated architectures/approaches in your work

BibTeX:

@article{ekambaram2024ttms, title={TTMs: Fast Multi-level Tiny Time Mixers for Improved Zero-shot and Few-shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series}, author={Ekambaram, Vijay and Jati, Arindam and Nguyen, Nam H and Dayama, Pankaj and Reddy, Chandra and Gifford, Wesley M and Kalagnanam, Jayant}, journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.03955}, year={2024} }

APA:

Ekambaram, V., Jati, A., Nguyen, N. H., Dayama, P., Reddy, C., Gifford, W. M., & Kalagnanam, J. (2024). TTMs: Fast Multi-level Tiny Time Mixers for Improved Zero-shot and Few-shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series. arXiv preprint arXiv:2401.03955.

Model Card Authors [optional]

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Model Card Contact

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IBM Public Repository Disclosure:

All content in this repository including code has been provided by IBM under the associated open source software license and IBM is under no obligation to provide enhancements, updates, or support. IBM developers produced this code as an open source project (not as an IBM product), and IBM makes no assertions as to the level of quality nor security, and will not be maintaining this code going forward.