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climate | The methodology widely used to understand sea temperatures in the scientific community may be based on a mistake , the new study suggests , and so our understanding of climate change might be fundamentally flawed . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | The new research suggests that the oceans hundreds of millions of years ago were much cooler than we thought . If true , that means that the global warming we are currently undergoing is unparallelled within the last 100 million years , and far worse than we had previously calculated . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | The research challenges the ways that researchers have worked out sea temperatures until now , meaning that they may be increasing quicker than previously suggested . | false causality |
climate | If true , that means that the global warming we are currently undergoing is unparallelled within the last 100 million years , and far worse than we had previously calculated . | fallacy of extension |
climate | Thawing permafrost can release not just CO2 , but also methane , a much stronger heat-trapping gas . | intentional |
climate | Since CO2 is the primary heat-trapping greenhouse gas — and since the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does today — this means a vicious cycle has begun that will speed up global warming . | appeal to emotion |
climate | But it has little to do with what recent headlines have been saying about the hottest year ever . It is called business as usual . | intentional |
climate | Until last June , most scientists acknowledged that warming reached a peak in the late 1990s , and since then had plateaued in a “ hiatus. ” | fallacy of credibility |
climate | NOAA ’ s alteration of its measurement standard and other changes produced a result that could have been predicted : a marginally significant warming trend in the data over the past several years , erasing the temperature plateau that vexed climate alarmists have found difficult to explain . | ad populum |
climate | But it has little to do with what recent headlines have been saying about the hottest year ever . It is called business as usual . | equivocation |
climate | NOAA ’ s alteration of its measurement standard and other changes produced a result that could have been predicted : a marginally significant warming trend in the data over the past several years , erasing the temperature plateau that vexed climate alarmists have found difficult to explain . | ad hominem |
climate | Whether temperatures have warmed much since then depends on what you look at . | intentional |
climate | If it ’ s science , it isn ’ t consensus . | false dilemma |
climate | Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century . . . . Greenland ’ s ice sheet isn ’ t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago . . . . | intentional |
climate | The extent of global fires has been trending significantly downward . | intentional |
climate | Global crop yields are rising , not falling . | intentional |
climate | Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century . . . . Greenland ’ s ice sheet isn ’ t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago . . . . The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century . ”
But Mr. Koonin is no “ climate denier , ” to use the concocted phrase used to shut down debate . | intentional |
climate | It ’ s a big problem , he says , when models can ’ t retroactively “ predict ” events that have already happened . | intentional |
climate | The rate of sea-level rise has not accelerated . | intentional |
climate | As Mr Koonin illustrates , tornado frequency and severity are also not trending up ; nor are the number and severity of droughts . | intentional |
climate | As Mr Koonin illustrates , tornado frequency and severity are also not trending up ; nor are the number and severity of droughts . | fallacy of extension |
climate | And while global atmospheric CO2 levels are obviously higher now than two centuries ago , they ’ re not at any record planetary high—they ’ re at a low that has only been seen once before in the past 500 million years . | intentional |
climate | But science itself is not conducted by polls , regardless of how often we are urged to heed a “ scientific consensus ” on climate . | intentional |
climate | The word “ denier ” is of course meant to associate skeptics of climate alarmism with Holocaust deniers . | fallacy of extension |
climate | Mr. Koonin finds this label particularly abhorrent , since “ the Nazis killed more than two hundred of my relatives in Eastern Europe. ” | fallacy of relevance |
climate | And while global atmospheric CO2 levels are obviously higher now than two centuries ago , they ’ re not at any record planetary high—they ’ re at a low that has only been seen once before in the past 500 million years . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | Mr. Koonin laments the sloppiness of those using local weather “ events ” to make claims about long-cycle planetary phenomena . He chastises not so much local news media as journalists with prestigious national media who should know better . | ad hominem |
climate | This attribution error evokes one of Mr. Koonin ’ s rare rebukes : “ Pointing to hurricanes as an example of the ravages of human-caused climate change is at best unconvincing , and at worst plainly dishonest . ” | fallacy of extension |
climate | He should know , having written one of the first textbooks on using computers to model physics phenomena . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | Mr. Koonin ’ s science credentials are impeccable—unlike , say , those of one well-known Swedish teenager to whom the media affords great attention on climate matters . | ad hominem |
climate | Mr. Koonin ’ s science credentials are impeccable—unlike , say , those of one well-known Swedish teenager to whom the media affords great attention on climate matters . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | Since all the data that Mr. Koonin uses are available to others , he poses the obvious question : “ Why haven ’ t you heard these facts before ? ” | intentional |
climate | We ’ ll see if that happens in a world in which politicians assert the science is settled and plan astronomical levels of spending to replace the nation ’ s massive infrastructures with “ green ” alternatives . | intentional |
climate | He begins with a kind of trigger warning for readers who may be shocked by the book ’ s contradiction of four points of climate orthodoxy : “ Heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900 ” and “ the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years . . . . | ad hominem |
climate | So no — I would not agree that it ’ s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see . But we don ’ t know that yet . We need to continue the debate and continue the review and the analysis . ” | fallacy of extension |
climate | Yet for all the hyperventilating , Pruitt ’ s answer to the question he was asked — whether carbon dioxide is the climate ’ s “ primary control knob ” — was entirely sound . “ We don ’ t know that yet , ” he said . | ad hominem |
climate | CO2 is certainly a heat-trapping greenhouse gas , but hardly the primary one : Water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of greenhouse gases . | false dilemma |
climate | Adding more CO2 molecules to the atmosphere is like painting over a red wall with white paint — the first coat does most of the work of concealing the red . | fallacy of extension |
climate | The more variables there are in any system or train of events , the lower the probability of all of them coming to pass . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | But for the sake of argument , say there are merely 15 variables involved in predicting global climate change , and assume that climatologists have mastered each one to a near-perfect accuracy of 95 percent . | fallacy of extension |
climate | CO2 is certainly a heat-trapping greenhouse gas , but hardly the primary one : Water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of greenhouse gases . By contrast , carbon dioxide is only a trace component in the atmosphere : about 400 ppm ( parts per million ) , or 0.04 percent . | ad populum |
climate | Adding more CO2 molecules to the atmosphere is like painting over a red wall with white paint — the first coat does most of the work of concealing the red . | faulty generalization |
climate | There is a popular theory that atmospheric CO2 amplifies the creation of water vapor , thereby increasing warming through a “ positive feedback loop. ” But that theory so far is mostly speculative ; climate projections using models based on it have consistently failed , nearly always predicting far more warming than has occurred . | fallacy of logic |
climate | It should go without saying that if scientists can not yet make accurate predictions about future climate change , then their understanding of climate science remains highly incomplete . | circular reasoning |
climate | It is affected by innumerable interacting variables , atmospheric CO2 levels being just one . The more variables there are in any system or train of events , the lower the probability of all of them coming to pass . | ad populum |
climate | Your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2 , but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 — i.e. , ½ x ½ Extending your winning streak to a third guess is even less probable : just 1 in 8 . Apply that approach to climate change , and it becomes clear why the best response to the alarmists ’ frantic predictions is a healthy skepticism . | faulty generalization |
climate | A comprehensive list would run to hundreds , if not thousands , of elements , none of which scientists would claim to understand with absolute precision . | ad populum |
climate | But for the sake of argument , say there are merely 15 variables involved in predicting global climate change , and assume that climatologists have mastered each one to a near-perfect accuracy of 95 percent . What are the odds that a climate model built on a system that simple would be reliable ? Less than 50/50 . ( Multiplying .95 by itself 15 times yields 46.3 percent . ) | faulty generalization |
climate | Is it any surprise that climate-change predictions in the real world — where the complexities are exponentially greater and the exactitude of knowledge much less — have such a poor track record ? | faulty generalization |
climate | The science is far from settled . | false dilemma |
climate | The rate of warming is also remarkable : “ The changes we see today are much faster than anything encountered in Earth ’ s history . In terms of rate of change , we are in uncharted waters , ” said study co-author Katrin Meissner of the University of New South Wales in Australia . | fallacy of relevance |
climate | “ Even with just 2 degrees of warming – and potentially just 1.5 degrees – significant impacts on the Earth system are profound , ” said study co-author Alan Mix , a scientist from Oregon State University . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | In one instance , the administration relied on an assumption that the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees Fahrenheit , or about four degrees Celsius , by the end of the century in arguing that a proposal to ease vehicle fuel-efficiency standards would have only minor climate impacts . | intentional |
climate | That we could get confirmation from atmospheric gases of ocean heat content is extraordinary , ” said Joellen Russell , a professor and oceanographer at the University of Arizona . “ You ’ ve got the A team here on this paper . ” | fallacy of credibility |
climate | 'If we do nothing to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions , the kind of extreme heat we saw this past summer will be the norm when my young son is a grown man . ' | appeal to emotion |
climate | It happened in four years between 1980-2010 , but has now occurred in four out of the last five winters . ” | ad populum |
climate | The rise in Arctic temperatures is probably also tied to a sudden warming of the stratosphere , the atmospheric layer about 30,000 feet high — above where most weather happens — that occurred several weeks ago , Moore said . | false causality |
climate | Whether a blip or indicative of a new normal , scientists have uniformly expressed disbelief at the current Arctic temperatures and the state of the sea ice . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | The impact of humans on Earth is unparalleled , with scientists arguing our actions have tipped the planet into a new era - the Anthropocene - with fallout from nuclear bombs now written into the rocks beneath our feet , and species facing extinction at 1,000 times the usual rate . | faulty generalization |
climate | The impact of humans on Earth is unparalleled , with scientists arguing our actions have tipped the planet into a new era - the Anthropocene - with fallout from nuclear bombs now written into the rocks beneath our feet , and species facing extinction at 1,000 times the usual rate . | intentional |
climate | However the warming trend is slower than most climate models have forecast . | intentional |
climate | Yet , some scientists argue that the gas is not capable of producing the extreme temperature rises seen in recent decades . | intentional |
climate | In its 5th assessment report in 2013 , the IPCC estimated that human emissions are probably responsible for more than half of the observed increase in global average temperature from 1951 to 2010 . | intentional |
climate | Yet , some scientists argue that the gas is not capable of producing the extreme temperature rises seen in recent decades . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | However , some experts argue that carbon dioxide is only a minor player in this atmospheric hothouse effect . | intentional |
climate | CO2 is not powerful in that sense , the only thing it does in the system is make the planet greener . Carbon Dioxide is playing a minor role in the total greenhouse effect . ” | intentional |
climate | Yet other scientists claim this is a red herring because of the positive feedback loop created by water vapour . | faulty generalization |
climate | Even the BBC has admitted to Ofcom that the corporation is now biased on the matter because it no longer thinks there is a counter-argument . | ad hominem |
climate | The MWP lasted from about 950 to 1250AD , and temperature records appear to show it was even hotter than today , allowing grain crops to flourish , the global population to soar and wine grapes to be planted in England for the first time in hundreds of years . | faulty generalization |
climate | Skeptics claim such anomalies prove that Earth can quickly warm and cool even in the absence of carbon dioxide , and any warming today may be caused by similar natural events . | faulty generalization |
climate | The IPCC no longer includes the ‘ Hockey stick ’ chart in its reports . | intentional |
climate | As we have already seen , during this time , the Northern Hemisphere experienced ‘ The Little Ice Age ’ where crops failed and plague wiped out tens of millions of people showing a clear correlation between solar activity and temperature on Earth . Likewise , there was also high solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period . | faulty generalization |
climate | Some scientists believe that solar activity is more likely to influence today ’ s climate than carbon dioxide , and Dr Soon has compiled data showing temperature in America , Canada and Mexico rises and falls in line with solar activity . | faulty generalization |
climate | Contents of the emails suggested scientists had been hiding or manipulating data , preventing people accessing their figures and working to stop papers critical of their findings from being published . | ad hominem |
climate | Just like Dr Mann ’ s ‘ hockey stick ’ graph he had cut off the tree-ring data just at the point where it stopped showing an upward trend and swapped in thermometer temperatures for recent decades , making them look much warmer . | intentional |
climate | In an interview with the BBC after the scandal broke , Dr Jones admitted there had been ‘ no statistically significant global warming since 1995. | intentional |
climate | The figure traditionally cited that suggests 97 per cent of climate scientists agree that global warming is man-made was also found to be flawed . A survey which claimed to have questioned 10,257 academics , was found to have winnowed down the sample to just 77 . | intentional |
climate | A poll of 1854 members of the American Meteorological Society found the number who believe climate change to be man-made to be 52 per cent . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | Climate skeptics argue temperature records have been adjusted in recent years to make the past appear cooler and the present warmer , although the Carbon Brief showed that NOAA has actually made the past warmer , evening out the difference . | intentional |
climate | The difference between recorded temperatures and reported temperatures has been slowly rising in recent years . | intentional |
climate | It is projected to rise another one to four by 2100 . | intentional |
climate | A survey which claimed to have questioned 10,257 academics , was found to have winnowed down the sample to just 77 . | intentional |
climate | Some of Dr Soon ’ s work is paid for by oil companies who clearly have a vested interest in making the blame for global warming fall elsewhere . | intentional |
climate | The figure traditionally cited that suggests 97 per cent of climate scientists agree that global warming is man-made was also found to be flawed . A survey which claimed to have questioned 10,257 academics , was found to have winnowed down the sample to just 77 . A poll of 1854 members of the American Meteorological Society found the number who believe climate change to be man-made to be 52 per cent . | ad populum |
climate | However , some experts argue that carbon dioxide is only a minor player in this atmospheric hothouse effect . | equivocation |
climate | As we have already seen , during this time , the Northern Hemisphere experienced ‘ The Little Ice Age ’ where crops failed and plague wiped out tens of millions of people showing a clear correlation between solar activity and temperature on Earth . Likewise , there was also high solar activity during the Medieval Warm Period . Some scientists believe that solar activity is more likely to influence today ’ s climate than carbon dioxide , and Dr Soon has compiled data showing temperature in America , Canada and Mexico rises and falls in line with solar activity . | false causality |
climate | And , can today ’ s climate models be trusted when scientists have misrepresented the data in the past ? | intentional |
climate | CLIMATE change in Antarctica may be linked to a never-before-seen island emerging from the ocean , experts have said . The uncharted island is actually big enough to spot from space but may have gone unnoticed due to previously being hidden beneath a lot of ice , a Nature report suggests . | false causality |
climate | Extreme melting and changes to the climate may have released pressure on to the continent , allowing the ground to rise up , a Nature report claims . | false causality |
climate | Rebounding ground can accelerate the ice cracking and falling away , which may be what happened with this new island that potentially emerged off the coast of Antarctica around 2010 . | false causality |
climate | According to Nature News , experts are n't sure how long the island has been visible but they think climate change may be behind its appearance . | false causality |
climate | Extreme melting and changes to the climate may have released pressure on to the continent , allowing the ground to rise up , a Nature report claims . | fallacy of credibility |
climate | The slowdown in warming was , she added , real , and all the evidence suggested that since 1998 , the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century . | fallacy of logic |
climate | Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record . | intentional |
climate | But it is almost certain that next year , large falls will also be measured over the oceans , and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998 . | faulty generalization |
climate | Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record . | intentional |
climate | The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end . | intentional |
climate | The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end . | intentional |
climate | Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino , a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years , and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans . | fallacy of relevance |
climate | Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘ pause ’ or ‘ hiatus ’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos . | intentional |