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climate
Next week he will be in Paris , a city terrorized yet again by mass murderers , for a summit with other world leaders on climate change , not terrorism .
fallacy of relevance
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Also , it is increasingly clear that the planet was significantly warmer than today several times during the past 10,000 years .
fallacy of credibility
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They say there is great uncertainty , and they reflected this uncertainty in their fifth and latest assessment for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) .
equivocation
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An important factor in the fires of the past week was that people are building homes in areas that are naturally prone to wildfires , or where naturally dry conditions mean that the kinds of building materials and vegetation that people prefer to use in cities and suburbs are a fire hazard .
intentional
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However , climate scientists are more skeptical , noting that climate change could be one of a variety of factors .
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And last month , Brown told a conference at the Vatican that the world needed β€œ brain washing ” on climate change .
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California Governor Jerry Brown blamed climate change for the California fires that have devastated the state this fall during a visit to assess the damage in Ventura County on Saturday .
false causality
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We have to have the resources to combat the fires , and also have to invest in managing our vegetation and forests and all the ways we dwell in this very wonderful place β€” but a place that ’ s getting hotter . ”
appeal to emotion
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And last month , Brown told a conference at the Vatican that the world needed β€œ brain washing ” on climate change .
fallacy of relevance
climate
Once a year or so , journalists from major news outlets travel to the Marshall Islands , a remote chain of volcanic islands and coral atolls in the Pacific Ocean , to report in panicked tones that the island nation is vanishing because of climate change .
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Once a year or so , journalists from major news outlets travel to the Marshall Islands , a remote chain of volcanic islands and coral atolls in the Pacific Ocean , to report in panicked tones that the island nation is vanishing because of climate change .
fallacy of extension
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Acknowledging this doesn ’ t mean that global warming isn ’ t real , or that world leaders and scientists shouldn ’ t tackle the adverse effects of climate change , but hype and exaggeration serve no one .
fallacy of extension
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Research shows that this process is overpowering the erosion from sea-level rise , leading to net land-area gain .
fallacy of credibility
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In its 2015 human-rights report on the island nation , the U.S. State Department said that significant problems include β€œ chronic government corruption , and chronic domestic violence , ” along with β€œ child abuse , sex trafficking , and lack of legal provisions protecting worker ’ s rights. ”
ad hominem
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Some 52.7 % of the Marshall Islands population lives below the poverty line , according to the Asian Development Bank . Only 39.3 % of the population age 15 years and above is employed .
ad hominem
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It will slow the world ’ s economic growth to force a shift to inefficient green energy sources .
fallacy of extension
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My peer-reviewed research , published last November in the journal Global Policy , shows that even if every nation were to fulfill all their carbon-cutting promises by 2030 and stick to them all the way through the centuryβ€”at a cost of more than $ 100 trillion in lost GDPβ€”global temperature rise would be reduced by a tiny 0.3Β°F ( 0.17Β°C ) .
ad populum
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Instead of simply mandating less carbon output , we need more R & D spending on green energy , including more efficient fission and fusion , cheaper solar and wind , and improved storage . New technology is crucial if green energy is to out-compete fossil fuels .
intentional
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Tackling issues like poverty , health care , corruption and domestic violence would do even more .
fallacy of relevance
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At a cost of between $ 1 trillion and $ 2 trillion annually , the Paris climate agreement , recently ratified by China , is likely to be history ’ s most expensive treaty .
appeal to emotion
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It is understandable why Marshall Island leaders might prefer to talk about global warming .
ad hominem
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Telling viewers in the U.S. starkly that they ’ re β€œ making this island disappear , ” as a report from CNN ’ s John Sutter did in June 2015 , makes for good , blame-laden television .
appeal to emotion
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The polar bear ’ s resilience should have meant the end of its use as a cherished icon of global warming doom , but it didn ’ t . The alarmism is not going away without a struggle .
intentional
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My close examination of recent research has revealed that serious inconsistencies exist within the polar bear literature and between that literature and public statements made by some researchers .
fallacy of credibility
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More food for seals in summer means more fat seal pups for polar bears to eat the following spring , a result that ’ s probably true throughout the Arctic . As long as polar bears have lots of baby seals to eat in spring , they get fat enough to survive even a longer-than-usual summer fast .
faulty generalization
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And while it ’ s true that studies in some regions show polar bears are lighter in weight than they were in the 1980s , there is no evidence that more individuals are starving to death or becoming too thin to reproduce because of less summer ice .
intentional
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Some cancers induce a muscle-wasting syndrome that leads to faster-than-usual weight loss . This is likely what happened to the emaciated Baffin Island bear captured on video in July 2017 and promoted by National Geographic late last year .
faulty generalization
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The videographers claimed it showed what starvation due to sea-ice loss looked like β€” an implausible conclusion given the time of year , the isolated nature of the incident , and the fact that sea ice that year was no more reduced than previously .
fallacy of relevance
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The failure of the 2007 polar bear survival model is a simple fact that explodes the myth that polar bears are on their way to extinction .
fallacy of logic
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My close examination of recent research has revealed that serious inconsistencies exist within the polar bear literature and between that literature and public statements made by some researchers .
fallacy of relevance
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More food for seals in summer means more fat seal pups for polar bears to eat the following spring , a result that ’ s probably true throughout the Arctic . As long as polar bears have lots of baby seals to eat in spring , they get fat enough to survive even a longer-than-usual summer fast .
false causality
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This is likely what happened to the emaciated Baffin Island bear captured on video in July 2017 and promoted by National Geographic late last year .
faulty generalization
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Although the extent of the summer sea ice after 2006 dropped abruptly to levels not expected until 2050 , the predicted 67-per-cent decline in polar bear numbers simply didn ’ t happen .
fallacy of extension
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One reason that the 2007 predictions of future polar bear survival were so far off base is that the model developed by American biologist Steven Amstrup ( now at Polar Bears International , an NGO ) assumed any polar bear population decline would be caused by less summer ice , despite the Beaufort Sea experience .
fallacy of credibility
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This increase may not be statistically significant , but it is decidedly not the 67-per-cent decline that was predicted given the ice conditions that prevailed .
fallacy of relevance
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Prof Tim Benton at the University of Leeds , who was not part of the research team , said : β€œ Ultimately , we live on a finite planet , with finite resources .
fallacy of credibility
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Prof Peter Smith at the University of Aberdeen , who was also not part of the research team , said : β€œ We know food choices are very personal , and that behaviour change can be difficult to encourage , but the evidence is now unequivocal – we need to change our diets if we are to have a sustainable future .
fallacy of credibility
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The research also finds that enormous changes to farming are needed to avoid destroying the planet ’ s ability to feed the 10 billion people expected to be on the planet in a few decades .
appeal to emotion
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The research also finds that enormous changes to farming are needed to avoid destroying the planet ’ s ability to feed the 10 billion people expected to be on the planet in a few decades .
intentional
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This trajectory would smash critical environmental limits beyond which humanity will struggle to live , the new research indicates . β€œ
faulty generalization
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Huge reductions in meat-eating are essential to avoid dangerous climate change , according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of the food system ’ s impact on the environment .
appeal to emotion
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It ’ s a big enough deal that yesterday President Obama even tweeted about it , including a map showing the maximum heat index in some parts of the Midwest and Southeast reaching 110 or 115 degrees on Saturday .
fallacy of credibility
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Well the answer is , it ’ s both , ” said Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe on a press call Thursday . β€œ We get heat waves naturally , but climate change is amping them up , it ’ s giving them that extra energy , to make them even more serious , and have even greater impacts . ”
false dilemma
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A new National Academies study suggests that β€˜ heat waves ’ may be one of the primary climate change markers like home runs were in baseball . ”
faulty generalization
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They may not have science on their side , but those who claim either that climate change is n't real or say it 's not a big problem have a lot of money and media platforms .
faulty generalization
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That combination is deadly : thanks to sea-level rise due to climate change , flooding is going to get much worse .
appeal to emotion
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In other words , record-breaking temperatures this year are specifically from El NiΓ±o , but the general increase in global temperatures is part of the trend due to climate change .
fallacy of logic
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Climatology Professor David Legates adds , β€œ In twelve years it ’ ll be 12 more years . ”
fallacy of relevance
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β€œ You acknowledge though the water is rising ? ” asks Stossel .
equivocation
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So many years ago , the Dutch built dikes to prevent flooding .
fallacy of relevance
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Pat Michaels , former president of the American Association of State Climatologists , says , β€œ It 's warmed up around one degree Celsius since 1900 , and life expectancy DOUBLED … yet [ if ] that temperature ticks up another half a degree … the entire system crashes ? That 's the most absurd belief . ''
fallacy of logic
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The 3 scientists argue that even if the planet warms by 5 degrees , humans can adjust .
false dilemma
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It wouldn ’ t stop global warming but : β€œ You ’ ll sure have an impoverished dark country.
equivocation
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It ’ s hard to believe they are when so many serious people are so worried . I wish there were a real debate !
ad hominem
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Legates interjects , β€œ Yes , the water has been rising for approximately 20,000 years . ”
equivocation
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Well , not a debate … because climate alarmists who were invited didn ’ t show .
ad hominem
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Pat Michaels , former president of the American Association of State Climatologists , says , β€œ It 's warmed up around one degree Celsius since 1900 , and life expectancy DOUBLED … yet [ if ] that temperature ticks up another half a degree … the entire system crashes ? That 's the most absurd belief . ''
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It wouldn ’ t stop global warming but : β€œ You ’ ll sure have an impoverished dark country. ” he continues .
false dilemma
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I wish there were a real debate !
intentional
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This means that thousands of peopleβ€”and perhaps tens of thousands of peopleβ€”are facing a terrifying and all-too-real struggle to survive right now .
appeal to emotion
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In the past 30 years of records , no storms west of Florida have intensified in the last 12 hours before landfall .
ad populum
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Interstates are under feet of water , local authorities have asked boat owners to join rescue efforts , and most of the streams and rivers near the city are in flood stage .
appeal to emotion
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The earth is 15 years from a period of low solar activity similar to that last seen during the `` mini ice-age '' of the 17th century , when the Thames froze .
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β€’ Fiddling with temperature data is biggest science scandal ever ( 31,000 comments )
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In England during this `` Little Ice Age '' , River
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In the winter of 1683-84 the Thames froze over for seven weeks , during which it was `` passable by foot '' , according to historical records .
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The earth is 15 years from a period of low solar activity similar to that last seen during the `` mini ice-age '' of the 17th century , when the Thames froze .
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The earth is 15 years from a period of low solar activity similar to that last seen during the `` mini ice-age '' of the 17th century , when the Thames froze .
false causality
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Maunder minimum , indicating low sunspot activity , was the name given to the period between 1645 and 1715 , when Europe and North America experienced very cold winters .
false causality
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In 2012 , Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter , β€œ The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing noncompetitive . ”
false causality
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Temperatures are heading toward levels that many experts believe will pose a profound threat to both the natural world and to human civilization .
fallacy of credibility
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The U.S. government is at it again , hyping meaningless records in a parameter that does not exist in order to frighten us about something that doesn ’ t matter .
fallacy of extension
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NOAA claims an uncertainty of 14 one-hundredths of a degree in its temperature averages , or near twice the amount by which they say the record was set .
ad populum
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Such misrepresentations are now commonplace in NOAA and NASA announcements . They are regularly proclaiming monthly and yearly records set by less than the uncertainties in the measurements .
intentional
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Temperature , like viscosity and density , and of course phone numbers , is not something that can be meaningfully averaged . β€œ Global temperature ” does not exist .
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There is no super-sized being straddling the planet , feeling global averages in temperature . Global warming does not matter .
fallacy of relevance
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Future generations are bound to ask why America closed its coal-fueled generating stations , its cheapest , most plentiful source of electric power , and wasted billions of dollars trying to stop insignificant changes in imaginary phenomena .
appeal to emotion
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As Jay Lehr , science director of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute said , β€œ It is a scam that dwarfs all others that have come before . ”
fallacy of credibility
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The U.S. government is at it again , hyping meaningless records in a parameter that does not exist in order to frighten us about something that doesn ’ t matter .
intentional
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So , the new temperature records are meaningless .
fallacy of extension
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In the final analysis , it is no more meaningful to calculate an average temperature for a whole planet than it is to calculate the average telephone number in the Washington D.C. phone book .
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No one and nothing would experience it directly since we all live in regions , not the globe .
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Future generations are bound to ask why America closed its coal-fueled generating stations , its cheapest , most plentiful source of electric power , and wasted billions of dollars trying to stop insignificant changes in imaginary phenomena .
appeal to emotion
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Even if enough accurate surface temperature measurements existed to ensure reasonable planetary coverage ( it doesn ’ t ) and to calculate some sort of global temperature statistic , interpreting its significance would be challenging .
circular reasoning
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For some groups of close temperature measures ( and NASA and NOAA are dealing with thousands of very close temperatures ) , one method of calculating an average can lead to a determination of warming while another can lead to a conclusion of cooling .
equivocation
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It gives you that nagging feeling that maybe global warming is real after all .
appeal to emotion
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There 's something about a warm February day that reminds you that something just is n't right .
appeal to emotion
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A Republican congressman from Colorado , Ken Buck , recently called one military proposal part of a β€œ radical climate change agenda . ”
ad hominem
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β€œ We ’ re putting enough heat in the ocean to send water over us , no question , ” Dr. Stoddard said . β€œ Ultimately , we give up and we leave .
appeal to emotion
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The sea has crept up to the point that a high tide and a brisk wind are all it takes to send water pouring into streets and homes .
faulty generalization
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β€œ I ’ m a Republican , but I also realize , by any objective analysis , the sea level is rising , ” said Jason Buelterman , the mayor of tiny Tybee Island , one of the first Georgia communities to adopt a detailed climate plan .
fallacy of credibility
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They are pleading with state and federal governments for guidance and help , including billions to pay for flood walls , pumps and road improvements that would buy them time . Yet Congress has largely ignored these pleas , and has even tried to block plans by the military to head off future problems at the numerous bases imperiled by a rising sea .
appeal to emotion
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A Republican congressman from Colorado , Ken Buck , recently called one military proposal part of a β€œ radical climate change agenda . ”
fallacy of credibility
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As the problem worsens , experts are warning that national security is on the line . Naval bases , in particular , are threatened ; they can hardly be moved away from the ocean , yet much of their land is at risk of disappearing within this century .
fallacy of relevance
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It ’ s a slow , gradual attack , but it threatens the safety and security of the United States . ”
faulty generalization
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It ’ s a slow , gradual attack , but it threatens the safety and security of the United States . ”
faulty generalization
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β€œ I believe it because we ’ re living it , ” Ms. Speights said as she sat on her sofa , nodding toward the nearby tidal marsh that sent water into her living room . β€œ The water has to be rising if we never flooded , and all of a sudden we ’ ve flooded three times in eight years . ”
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As the national response lags , experts warn that the flooding is putting the country ’ s defense at risk .
appeal to emotion
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β€œ When we distract our military with a radical climate change agenda , we detract from their main purpose of defending America from enemies ” like the Islamic State , said Mr. Buck of Colorado , the Republican congressman who sponsored the measure .
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β€œ When we distract our military with a radical climate change agenda , we detract from their main purpose of defending America from enemies ” like the Islamic State , said Mr. Buck of Colorado , the Republican congressman who sponsored the measure .
fallacy of relevance