Datasets:

shubhamg2208
/

lexicap

	WEBVTT

	00:00.000 --> 00:02.520
	The following is a conversation with George Hotz.

	00:02.520 --> 00:04.480
	He's the founder of Comma AI,

	00:04.480 --> 00:07.400
	a machine learning based vehicle automation company.

	00:07.400 --> 00:10.200
	He is most certainly an outspoken personality

	00:10.200 --> 00:13.160
	in the field of AI and technology in general.

	00:13.160 --> 00:16.240
	He first gained recognition for being the first person

	00:16.240 --> 00:18.400
	to carry on lock and iPhone.

	00:18.400 --> 00:21.280
	And since then, he's done quite a few interesting things

	00:21.280 --> 00:24.400
	at the intersection of hardware and software.

	00:24.400 --> 00:27.440
	This is the artificial intelligence podcast.

	00:27.440 --> 00:29.560
	If you enjoy it, subscribe on YouTube,

	00:29.560 --> 00:32.920
	give it five stars on iTunes, support it on Patreon,

	00:32.920 --> 00:34.920
	or simply connect with me on Twitter.

	00:34.920 --> 00:39.120
	Alex Friedman, spelled F R I D M A N.

	00:39.120 --> 00:42.000
	And I'd like to give a special thank you to Jennifer

	00:42.000 --> 00:45.880
	from Canada for her support of the podcast on Patreon.

	00:45.880 --> 00:47.720
	Merci beaucoup, Jennifer.

	00:47.720 --> 00:50.600
	She's been a friend and an engineering colleague

	00:50.600 --> 00:52.800
	for many years since I was in grad school.

	00:52.800 --> 00:55.520
	Your support means a lot and inspires me

	00:55.520 --> 00:57.920
	to keep this series going.

	00:57.920 --> 01:01.600
	And now here's my conversation with George Hotz.

	01:02.720 --> 01:04.720
	Do you think we're living in a simulation?

	01:06.480 --> 01:10.080
	Yes, but it may be unfalsifiable.

	01:10.080 --> 01:12.440
	What do you mean by unfalsifiable?

	01:12.440 --> 01:16.840
	So if the simulation is designed in such a way

	01:16.840 --> 01:19.640
	that they did like a formal proof

	01:19.640 --> 01:22.320
	to show that no information can get in and out.

	01:22.320 --> 01:25.200
	And if their hardware is designed for the anything

	01:25.200 --> 01:27.880
	in the simulation to always keep the hardware in spec,

	01:27.880 --> 01:29.480
	it may be impossible to prove

	01:29.480 --> 01:31.280
	whether we're in a simulation or not.

	01:32.600 --> 01:35.680
	So they've designed it such that it's a closed system,

	01:35.680 --> 01:37.200
	you can't get outside the system.

	01:37.200 --> 01:38.760
	Well, maybe it's one of three worlds.

	01:38.760 --> 01:41.400
	We're either in a simulation which can be exploited,

	01:41.400 --> 01:44.200
	we're in a simulation which not only can't be exploited,

	01:44.200 --> 01:46.440
	but like the same thing's true about VMs.

	01:46.440 --> 01:48.160
	A really well designed VM,

	01:48.160 --> 01:50.520
	you can't even detect if you're in a VM or not.

	01:51.400 --> 01:52.520
	That's brilliant.

	01:52.520 --> 01:55.160
	So we're, yeah, so the simulation is running

	01:55.160 --> 01:56.800
	on a virtual machine.

	01:56.800 --> 01:59.440
	But now in reality, all VMs have ways to detect.

	01:59.440 --> 02:00.280
	That's the point.

	02:00.280 --> 02:04.840
	I mean, is it, you've done quite a bit of hacking yourself.

	02:04.840 --> 02:08.640
	So you should know that really any complicated system

	02:08.640 --> 02:11.000
	will have ways in and out.

	02:11.000 --> 02:14.240
	So this isn't necessarily true going forward.

	02:15.280 --> 02:18.080
	I spent my time away from comma,

	02:18.080 --> 02:21.240
	I learned a cock, it's a dependently typed,

	02:21.240 --> 02:24.360
	like it's a language for writing math proofs.

	02:24.360 --> 02:28.200
	And if you write code that compiles in a language like that,

	02:28.200 --> 02:30.840
	it is correct by definition.

	02:30.840 --> 02:33.560
	The types check it's correctance.

	02:33.560 --> 02:35.000
	So it's possible that the simulation

	02:35.000 --> 02:39.640
	is written in a language like this, in which case, yeah.

	02:39.640 --> 02:42.680
	Yeah, but that can't be sufficiently expressive

	02:42.680 --> 02:43.760
	of language like that.

	02:43.760 --> 02:44.600
	Oh, it can.

	02:44.600 --> 02:45.440
	It can be?

	02:45.440 --> 02:46.280
	Oh, yeah.

	02:46.280 --> 02:48.920
	Okay, well, so, all right, so.

	02:48.920 --> 02:50.640
	The simulation doesn't have to be tearing complete

	02:50.640 --> 02:52.320
	if it has a scheduled end date.

	02:52.320 --> 02:54.600
	Looks like it does actually with entropy.

	02:54.600 --> 02:58.520
	I mean, I don't think that a simulation

	02:58.520 --> 03:02.200
	that results in something as complicated as the universe

	03:03.080 --> 03:07.280
	would have a formal proof of correctness, right?

	03:08.240 --> 03:09.880
	It's possible, of course.

	03:09.880 --> 03:12.720
	We have no idea how good their tooling is.

	03:12.720 --> 03:14.640
	And we have no idea how complicated

	03:14.640 --> 03:16.280
	the universe computer really is.

	03:16.280 --> 03:17.920
	It may be quite simple.

	03:17.920 --> 03:19.680
	It's just very large, right?

	03:19.680 --> 03:22.160
	It's very, it's definitely very large.

	03:22.160 --> 03:24.480
	But the fundamental rules might be super simple.

	03:24.480 --> 03:26.240
	Yeah, Conway's gonna like kinda stop.

	03:26.240 --> 03:30.320
	Right, so if you could hack,

	03:30.320 --> 03:32.400
	so imagine the simulation that is hackable,

	03:32.400 --> 03:33.640
	if you could hack it,

	03:35.040 --> 03:37.960
	what would you change about the universe?

	03:37.960 --> 03:40.560
	Like how would you approach hacking a simulation?

	03:41.640 --> 03:44.360
	The reason I gave that talk?

	03:44.360 --> 03:46.680
	By the way, I'm not familiar with the talk you gave.

	03:46.680 --> 03:50.160
	I just read that you talked about escaping the simulation

	03:50.160 --> 03:51.280
	or something like that.

	03:51.280 --> 03:52.640
	So maybe you can tell me a little bit

	03:52.640 --> 03:55.360
	about the theme and the message there too.

	03:55.360 --> 03:57.680
	It wasn't a very practical talk

	03:57.680 --> 04:00.600
	about how to actually escape a simulation.

	04:00.600 --> 04:03.320
	It was more about a way of restructuring

	04:03.320 --> 04:05.120
	an us versus them narrative.

	04:05.120 --> 04:10.120
	If we continue on the path we're going with technology,

	04:12.360 --> 04:14.160
	I think we're in big trouble,

	04:14.160 --> 04:16.760
	like as a species and not just as a species,

	04:16.760 --> 04:19.480
	but even as me as an individual member of the species.

	04:19.480 --> 04:23.680
	So if we could change rhetoric to be more like,

	04:23.680 --> 04:24.920
	to think upwards,

	04:26.240 --> 04:29.080
	like to think about that we're in a simulation

	04:29.080 --> 04:30.360
	and how we could get out,

	04:30.360 --> 04:32.640
	already we'd be on the right path.

	04:32.640 --> 04:34.800
	What you actually do once you do that,

	04:34.800 --> 04:37.360
	well, I assume I would have acquired way more intelligence

	04:37.360 --> 04:39.760
	in the process of doing that, so I'll just ask that.

	04:39.760 --> 04:42.080
	So the thinking upwards,

	04:42.080 --> 04:43.760
	what kind of ideas,

	04:43.760 --> 04:45.640
	what kind of breakthrough ideas do you think thinking

	04:45.640 --> 04:47.280
	in that way could inspire?

	04:47.280 --> 04:49.800
	And why did you say upwards?

	04:49.800 --> 04:50.640
	Upwards.

	04:50.640 --> 04:51.480
	Into space?

	04:51.480 --> 04:54.120
	Are you thinking sort of exploration in all forms?

	04:54.120 --> 04:59.120
	The space narrative that held for the modernist generation

	04:59.880 --> 05:02.600
	doesn't hold as well for the postmodern generation.

	05:04.560 --> 05:05.480
	What's the space narrative?

	05:05.480 --> 05:06.520
	Are we talking about the same space?

	05:06.520 --> 05:07.360
	The three dimensional space?

	05:07.360 --> 05:08.840
	No, no, space, like going up space,

	05:08.840 --> 05:10.040
	like building like Elon Musk,

	05:10.040 --> 05:11.160
	like we're going to build rockets,

	05:11.160 --> 05:12.080
	we're going to go to Mars,

	05:12.080 --> 05:13.560
	we're going to colonize the universe.

	05:13.560 --> 05:14.720
	And the narrative you're referring,

	05:14.720 --> 05:16.040
	I was born in the Soviet Union,

	05:16.040 --> 05:18.000
	you're referring to the race to space?

	05:18.000 --> 05:18.840
	The race to space, yeah.

	05:18.840 --> 05:19.680
	Yes, explore, okay.

	05:19.680 --> 05:21.760
	That was a great modernist narrative.

	05:21.760 --> 05:23.360
	Yeah.

	05:23.360 --> 05:26.720
	It doesn't seem to hold the same weight in today's culture.

	05:27.640 --> 05:32.160
	I'm hoping for good postmodern narratives that replace it.

	05:32.160 --> 05:35.560
	So let's think, so you work a lot with AI.

	05:35.560 --> 05:39.080
	So AI is one formulation of that narrative.

	05:39.080 --> 05:40.080
	There could be also,

	05:40.080 --> 05:42.320
	I don't know how much you do in VR and AR.

	05:42.320 --> 05:43.160
	Yeah.

	05:43.160 --> 05:45.160
	That's another, I know less about it,

	05:45.160 --> 05:47.600
	but every time I play with it and our research,

	05:47.600 --> 05:49.640
	it's fascinating, that virtual world.

	05:49.640 --> 05:51.840
	Are you interested in the virtual world?

	05:51.840 --> 05:54.200
	I would like to move to virtual reality.

	05:55.360 --> 05:56.440
	In terms of your work?

	05:56.440 --> 05:58.760
	No, I would like to physically move there.

	05:58.760 --> 06:00.240
	The apartment I can rent in the cloud

	06:00.240 --> 06:03.240
	is way better than the apartment I can rent in the real world.

	06:03.240 --> 06:04.760
	Well, it's all relative, isn't it?

	06:04.760 --> 06:07.280
	Because others will have very nice apartments too,

	06:07.280 --> 06:09.200
	so you'll be inferior in the virtual world as well.

	06:09.200 --> 06:11.320
	But that's not how I view the world, right?

	06:11.320 --> 06:12.440
	I don't view the world.

	06:12.440 --> 06:15.640
	I mean, that's a very like, almost zero summish way

	06:15.640 --> 06:16.480
	to view the world.

	06:16.480 --> 06:18.800
	Say like, my great apartment isn't great

	06:18.800 --> 06:20.400
	because my neighbor has one too.

	06:20.400 --> 06:21.640
	No, my great apartment is great

	06:21.640 --> 06:24.320
	because like, look at this dishwasher, man.

	06:24.320 --> 06:26.640
	You just touch the dish and it's washed, right?

	06:26.640 --> 06:28.680
	And that is great in and of itself

	06:28.680 --> 06:30.120
	if I had the only apartment

	06:30.120 --> 06:31.520
	or if everybody had the apartment.

	06:31.520 --> 06:32.400
	I don't care.

	06:32.400 --> 06:34.760
	So you have fundamental gratitude.

	06:34.760 --> 06:39.080
	The world first learned of Geohot, George Hots

	06:39.080 --> 06:42.280
	in August 2007, maybe before then,

	06:42.280 --> 06:44.080
	but certainly in August 2007

	06:44.080 --> 06:46.760
	when you were the first person to unlock,

	06:46.760 --> 06:48.880
	carry on lock an iPhone.

	06:48.880 --> 06:50.520
	How did you get into hacking?

	06:50.520 --> 06:53.080
	What was the first system you discovered

	06:53.080 --> 06:55.040
	vulnerabilities for and broke into?

	06:56.240 --> 07:01.240
	So that was really kind of the first thing.

	07:01.640 --> 07:06.640
	I had a book in 2006 called Gray Hat Hacking.

	07:07.480 --> 07:11.000
	And I guess I realized that

	07:11.000 --> 07:13.480
	if you acquired these sort of powers

	07:13.480 --> 07:15.280
	you could control the world.

	07:16.160 --> 07:18.920
	But I didn't really know that much

	07:18.920 --> 07:20.560
	about computers back then.

	07:20.560 --> 07:22.120
	I started with electronics.

	07:22.120 --> 07:24.200
	The first iPhone hack was physical.

	07:24.200 --> 07:25.040
	Cardware.

	07:25.040 --> 07:28.160
	You had to open it up and pull an address line high.

	07:28.160 --> 07:29.960
	And it was because I didn't really know

	07:29.960 --> 07:31.320
	about software exploitation.

	07:31.320 --> 07:32.960
	I learned that all in the next few years

	07:32.960 --> 07:33.920
	and I got very good at it.

	07:33.920 --> 07:36.560
	But back then I knew about like

	07:36.560 --> 07:38.920
	how memory chips are connected to processors and stuff.

	07:38.920 --> 07:41.040
	But you knew about software and programming.

	07:41.040 --> 07:43.200
	You didn't know.

	07:43.200 --> 07:46.160
	Oh really, so your view of the world

	07:46.160 --> 07:49.320
	and computers was physical, was hardware.

	07:49.320 --> 07:52.400
	Actually, if you read the code that I released with that

	07:52.400 --> 07:55.760
	in August 2007, it's atrocious.

	07:55.760 --> 07:56.760
	What language was it?

	07:56.760 --> 07:57.600
	C.

	07:57.600 --> 07:58.440
	C, nice.

	07:58.440 --> 08:01.480
	And in a broken sort of state machine, ask C.

	08:01.480 --> 08:02.960
	I didn't know how to program.

	08:02.960 --> 08:04.160
	Yeah.

	08:04.160 --> 08:06.600
	So how did you learn to program?

	08:07.520 --> 08:08.440
	What was your journey?

	08:08.440 --> 08:10.040
	I mean, we'll talk about it.

	08:10.040 --> 08:12.680
	You've live streamed some of your programming.

	08:12.680 --> 08:14.400
	This chaotic, beautiful mess.

	08:14.400 --> 08:16.480
	How did you arrive at that?

	08:16.480 --> 08:18.640
	Years and years of practice.

	08:18.640 --> 08:22.240
	I interned at Google after,

	08:22.240 --> 08:24.800
	the summer after the iPhone unlock.

	08:24.800 --> 08:26.720
	And I did a contract for them

	08:26.720 --> 08:29.040
	where I built a hardware for Street View

	08:29.040 --> 08:31.760
	and I wrote a software library to interact with it.

	08:32.680 --> 08:34.920
	And it was terrible code.

	08:34.920 --> 08:36.560
	And for the first time I got feedback

	08:36.560 --> 08:38.760
	from people who I respected saying,

	08:38.760 --> 08:41.160
	no, like, don't write code like this.

	08:42.680 --> 08:45.680
	Now, of course, just getting that feedback is not enough.

	08:45.680 --> 08:50.680
	The way that I really got good was,

	08:51.000 --> 08:54.800
	I wanted to write this thing that could emulate

	08:54.800 --> 08:58.440
	and then visualize like arm binaries

	08:58.440 --> 09:00.040
	because I wanted to hack the iPhone better.

	09:00.040 --> 09:01.960
	And I didn't like that I couldn't see what the,

	09:01.960 --> 09:03.800
	I couldn't single step through the processor

	09:03.800 --> 09:05.200
	because I had no debugger on there,

	09:05.200 --> 09:06.640
	especially for the low level things like the boot ROM

	09:06.640 --> 09:07.480
	and the boot loader.

	09:07.480 --> 09:09.440
	So I tried to build this tool to do it.

	09:10.920 --> 09:13.440
	And I built the tool once and it was terrible.

	09:13.440 --> 09:15.120
	I built the tool second times, it was terrible.

	09:15.120 --> 09:16.320
	I built the tool third time.

	09:16.320 --> 09:18.600
	This by the time I was at Facebook, it was kind of okay.

	09:18.600 --> 09:20.560
	And then I built the tool fourth time

	09:20.560 --> 09:22.560
	when I was a Google intern again in 2014.

	09:22.560 --> 09:24.320
	And that was the first time I was like,

	09:24.320 --> 09:25.880
	this is finally usable.

	09:25.880 --> 09:27.120
	How do you pronounce this, Kira?

	09:27.120 --> 09:28.360
	Kira, yeah.

	09:28.360 --> 09:31.840
	So it's essentially the most efficient way

	09:31.840 --> 09:35.720
	to visualize the change of state of the computer

	09:35.720 --> 09:37.200
	as the program is running.

	09:37.200 --> 09:38.920
	That's what you mean by debugger.

	09:38.920 --> 09:41.760
	Yeah, it's a timeless debugger.

	09:41.760 --> 09:45.080
	So you can rewind just as easily as going forward.

	09:45.080 --> 09:46.280
	Think about, if you're using GDB,

	09:46.280 --> 09:47.880
	you have to put a watch on a variable.

	09:47.880 --> 09:49.680
	If you want to see if that variable changes.

	09:49.680 --> 09:51.480
	In Kira, you can just click on that variable.

	09:51.480 --> 09:53.880
	And then it shows every single time

	09:53.880 --> 09:56.520
	when that variable was changed or accessed.

	09:56.520 --> 09:59.760
	Think about it like get for your computer's, the run lock.

	09:59.760 --> 10:04.760
	So there's like a deep log of the state of the computer

	10:05.640 --> 10:07.840
	as the program runs and you can rewind.

	10:07.840 --> 10:11.480
	Why isn't that, maybe it is, maybe you can educate me.

	10:11.480 --> 10:14.640
	Why isn't that kind of debugging used more often?

	10:14.640 --> 10:16.320
	Because the tooling's bad.

	10:16.320 --> 10:17.160
	Well, two things.

	10:17.160 --> 10:19.360
	One, if you're trying to debug Chrome,

	10:19.360 --> 10:22.920
	Chrome is a 200 megabyte binary

	10:22.920 --> 10:25.440
	that runs slowly on desktops.

	10:25.440 --> 10:27.760
	So that's gonna be really hard to use for that.

	10:27.760 --> 10:30.160
	But it's really good to use for like CTFs

	10:30.160 --> 10:33.200
	and for boot ROMs and for small parts of code.

	10:33.200 --> 10:36.360
	So it's hard if you're trying to debug like massive systems.

	10:36.360 --> 10:38.200
	What's a CTF and what's a boot ROM?

	10:38.200 --> 10:40.480
	A boot ROM is the first code that executes

	10:40.480 --> 10:42.280
	the minute you give power to your iPhone.

	10:42.280 --> 10:43.520
	Okay.

	10:43.520 --> 10:46.040
	And CTF were these competitions that I played.

	10:46.040 --> 10:46.880
	Capture the flag.

	10:46.880 --> 10:47.720
	Capture the flag.

	10:47.720 --> 10:48.560
	I was gonna ask you about that.

	10:48.560 --> 10:49.920
	What are those, those look at,

	10:49.920 --> 10:51.440
	I watched a couple of videos on YouTube.

	10:51.440 --> 10:52.920
	Those look fascinating.

	10:52.920 --> 10:55.560
	What have you learned about maybe at the high level

	10:55.560 --> 10:58.040
	in the vulnerability of systems from these competitions?

	11:00.840 --> 11:04.200
	I feel like in the heyday of CTFs,

	11:04.200 --> 11:08.160
	you had all of the best security people in the world

	11:08.160 --> 11:10.720
	challenging each other and coming up

	11:10.720 --> 11:13.640
	with new toy exploitable things over here.

	11:13.640 --> 11:15.400
	And then everybody, okay, who can break it?

	11:15.400 --> 11:17.160
	And when you break it, you get like,

	11:17.160 --> 11:19.360
	there's like a file in the server called flag.

	11:19.360 --> 11:20.960
	And then there's a program running,

	11:20.960 --> 11:22.680
	listening on a socket that's vulnerable.

	11:22.680 --> 11:25.000
	So you write an exploit, you get a shell,

	11:25.000 --> 11:27.160
	and then you cat flag, and then you type the flag

	11:27.160 --> 11:29.480
	into like a web based scoreboard and you get points.

	11:29.480 --> 11:33.000
	So the goal is essentially to find an exploit in the system

	11:33.000 --> 11:35.280
	that allows you to run shell,

	11:35.280 --> 11:38.040
	to run arbitrary code on that system.

	11:38.040 --> 11:40.200
	That's one of the categories.

	11:40.200 --> 11:41.960
	That's like the Poneable category.

	11:43.560 --> 11:44.400
	Poneable?

	11:44.400 --> 11:45.240
	Yeah, Poneable.

	11:45.240 --> 11:47.600
	It's like, you know, you Pone the program.

	11:47.600 --> 11:48.440
	It's a program.

	11:48.440 --> 11:51.760
	Oh, yeah.

	11:51.760 --> 11:55.360
	You know, first of all, I apologize, I'm gonna say,

	11:55.360 --> 11:56.280
	it's because I'm Russian,

	11:56.280 --> 11:59.120
	but maybe you can help educate me.

	12:00.120 --> 12:01.680
	Some video game like misspelled

	12:01.680 --> 12:02.840
	to own way back in the day.

	12:02.840 --> 12:04.880
	Yeah, and it's just,

	12:04.880 --> 12:06.280
	I wonder if there's a definition

	12:06.280 --> 12:08.000
	and I'll have to go to Urban Dictionary for it.

	12:08.000 --> 12:09.800
	Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what it says.

	12:09.800 --> 12:12.760
	Okay, so what was the heyday of CTL, by the way,

	12:12.760 --> 12:15.480
	but was it, what decade are we talking about?

	12:15.480 --> 12:18.400
	I think like, I mean, maybe I'm biased

	12:18.400 --> 12:21.120
	because it's the era that I played,

	12:21.120 --> 12:25.800
	but like 2011 to 2015,

	12:27.200 --> 12:30.320
	because the modern CTF scene

	12:30.320 --> 12:32.640
	is similar to the modern competitive programming scene.

	12:32.640 --> 12:34.280
	You have people who like do drills.

	12:34.280 --> 12:35.880
	You have people who practice.

	12:35.880 --> 12:37.040
	And then once you've done that,

	12:37.040 --> 12:40.040
	you've turned it less into a game of generic computer skill

	12:40.040 --> 12:42.440
	and more into a game of, okay, you memorize,

	12:42.440 --> 12:44.620
	you drill on these five categories.

	12:45.760 --> 12:48.920
	And then before that, it wasn't,

	12:48.920 --> 12:51.560
	it didn't have like as much attention as it had.

	12:52.800 --> 12:53.640
	I don't know, they were like,

	12:53.640 --> 12:55.200
	I won $30,000 once in Korea

	12:55.200 --> 12:56.120
	for one of these competitions.

	12:56.120 --> 12:56.960
	Holy crap.

	12:56.960 --> 12:57.920
	Yeah, they were, they were, that was...

	12:57.920 --> 12:59.520
	So that means, I mean, money is money,

	12:59.520 --> 13:02.320
	but that means there was probably good people there.

	13:02.320 --> 13:03.600
	Exactly, yeah.

	13:03.600 --> 13:06.800
	Are the challenges human constructed

	13:06.800 --> 13:10.760
	or are they grounded in some real flaws in real systems?

	13:10.760 --> 13:13.080
	Usually they're human constructed,

	13:13.080 --> 13:15.760
	but they're usually inspired by real flaws.

	13:15.760 --> 13:17.320
	What kind of systems are imagined

	13:17.320 --> 13:19.080
	is really focused on mobile?

	13:19.080 --> 13:20.920
	Like what has vulnerabilities these days?

	13:20.920 --> 13:25.120
	Is it primarily mobile systems like Android?

	13:25.120 --> 13:26.680
	Oh, everything does.

	13:26.680 --> 13:28.120
	Yeah, of course.

	13:28.120 --> 13:29.360
	The price has kind of gone up

	13:29.360 --> 13:31.280
	because less and less people can find them.

	13:31.280 --> 13:33.160
	And what's happened in security is now,

	13:33.160 --> 13:34.560
	if you want to like jailbreak an iPhone,

	13:34.560 --> 13:36.960
	you don't need one exploit anymore, you need nine.

	13:37.960 --> 13:39.160
	Nine change together?

	13:39.160 --> 13:40.000
	What would you mean?

	13:40.000 --> 13:40.840
	Yeah, wow.

	13:40.840 --> 13:44.800
	Okay, so it's really, what's the benefit?

	13:44.800 --> 13:48.240
	Speaking higher level philosophically about hacking.

	13:48.240 --> 13:50.400
	I mean, it sounds from everything I've seen about you,

	13:50.400 --> 13:55.040
	you just love the challenge and you don't want to do anything.

	13:55.040 --> 13:58.120
	You don't want to bring that exploit out into the world

	13:58.120 --> 14:01.680
	and do any actual, let it run wild.

	14:01.680 --> 14:02.760
	You just want to solve it

	14:02.760 --> 14:05.400
	and then you go on to the next thing.

	14:05.400 --> 14:08.440
	Oh yeah, I mean, doing criminal stuff's not really worth it.

	14:08.440 --> 14:10.520
	And I'll actually use the same argument

	14:10.520 --> 14:15.440
	for why I don't do defense for why I don't do crime.

	14:15.440 --> 14:16.840
	If you want to defend a system,

	14:16.840 --> 14:19.280
	say the system has 10 holes, right?

	14:19.280 --> 14:22.240
	If you find nine of those holes as a defender,

	14:22.240 --> 14:24.240
	you still lose because the attacker gets in

	14:24.240 --> 14:25.520
	through the last one.

	14:25.520 --> 14:26.360
	If you're an attacker,

	14:26.360 --> 14:28.720
	you only have to find one out of the 10.

	14:28.720 --> 14:30.760
	But if you're a criminal,

	14:30.760 --> 14:34.800
	if you log on with a VPN nine out of the 10 times,

	14:34.800 --> 14:37.760
	but one time you forget, you're done.

	14:37.760 --> 14:39.400
	Because you're caught, okay.

	14:39.400 --> 14:41.160
	Because you only have to mess up once

	14:41.160 --> 14:42.920
	to be caught as a criminal.

	14:42.920 --> 14:44.320
	That's why I'm not a criminal.

	14:45.920 --> 14:47.080
	But okay, let me,

	14:47.080 --> 14:49.520
	cause I was having a discussion with somebody

	14:49.520 --> 14:52.440
	just at a high level about nuclear weapons,

	14:52.440 --> 14:56.240
	actually why we're having blown ourselves up yet.

	14:56.240 --> 14:59.840
	And my feeling is all the smart people in the world,

	14:59.840 --> 15:04.120
	if you look at the distribution of smart people,

	15:04.120 --> 15:06.760
	smart people are generally good.

	15:06.760 --> 15:07.680
	And then the Southern person,

	15:07.680 --> 15:09.480
	I was talking to Sean Carroll, the physicist,

	15:09.480 --> 15:11.400
	and he was saying no good and bad people

	15:11.400 --> 15:14.080
	are evenly distributed amongst everybody.

	15:14.080 --> 15:18.080
	My sense was good hackers are in general good people

	15:18.080 --> 15:20.400
	and they don't want to mess with the world.

	15:20.400 --> 15:21.920
	What's your sense?

	15:21.920 --> 15:24.720
	I'm not even sure about that.

	15:25.920 --> 15:30.520
	Like, I have a nice life.

	15:30.520 --> 15:32.120
	Crime wouldn't get me anything.

	15:34.320 --> 15:36.520
	But if you're good and you have these skills,

	15:36.520 --> 15:38.720
	you probably have a nice life too, right?

	15:38.720 --> 15:40.160
	Right, you can use the father things.

	15:40.160 --> 15:41.120
	But is there an ethical,

	15:41.120 --> 15:44.200
	is there a little voice in your head that says,

	15:46.120 --> 15:49.040
	well, yeah, if you could hack something

	15:49.040 --> 15:50.720
	to where you could hurt people

	15:52.840 --> 15:54.960
	and you could earn a lot of money doing it though,

	15:54.960 --> 15:56.320
	not hurt physically perhaps,

	15:56.320 --> 15:59.000
	but disrupt their life in some kind of way.

	16:00.200 --> 16:02.360
	Isn't there a little voice that says,

	16:03.360 --> 16:04.560
	Well, two things.

	16:04.560 --> 16:06.800
	One, I don't really care about money.

	16:06.800 --> 16:08.680
	So like the money wouldn't be an incentive.

	16:08.680 --> 16:10.640
	The thrill might be an incentive.

	16:10.640 --> 16:14.440
	But when I was 19, I read crime and punishment.

	16:14.440 --> 16:16.120
	That was another great one

	16:16.120 --> 16:18.440
	that talked me out of ever really doing crime.

	16:19.400 --> 16:21.720
	Cause it's like, that's gonna be me.

	16:21.720 --> 16:25.040
	I'd get away with it, but it would just run through my head.

	16:25.040 --> 16:26.480
	Even if I got away with it, you know?

	16:26.480 --> 16:27.640
	And then you do crime for long enough,

	16:27.640 --> 16:28.960
	you'll never get away with it.

	16:28.960 --> 16:30.360
	That's right, in the end.

	16:30.360 --> 16:32.680
	That's a good reason to be good.

	16:32.680 --> 16:34.880
	I wouldn't say I'm good, I would just say I'm not bad.

	16:34.880 --> 16:38.080
	You're a talented programmer and a hacker

	16:38.080 --> 16:40.920
	in a good positive sense of the word.

	16:40.920 --> 16:43.360
	You've played around, found vulnerabilities

	16:43.360 --> 16:44.720
	in various systems.

	16:44.720 --> 16:46.120
	What have you learned broadly

	16:46.120 --> 16:49.480
	about the design of systems and so on

	16:49.480 --> 16:51.520
	from that whole process?

	16:53.280 --> 16:58.280
	You learn to not take things

	16:59.280 --> 17:02.160
	for what people say they are,

	17:02.160 --> 17:05.320
	but you look at things for what they actually are.

	17:07.040 --> 17:07.880
	Yeah.

	17:07.880 --> 17:10.080
	I understand that's what you tell me it is,

	17:10.080 --> 17:11.320
	but what does it do?

	17:12.960 --> 17:14.600
	And you have nice visualization tools

	17:14.600 --> 17:16.720
	to really know what it's really doing.

	17:16.720 --> 17:20.080
	Oh, I wish I'm a better programmer now than I was in 2014.

	17:20.080 --> 17:21.880
	I said, Kira, that was the first tool

	17:21.880 --> 17:23.440
	that I wrote that was usable.

	17:23.440 --> 17:25.360
	I wouldn't say the code was great.

	17:25.360 --> 17:27.360
	I still wouldn't say my code is great.

	17:28.840 --> 17:30.760
	So how was your evolution as a programmer?

	17:30.760 --> 17:32.280
	Except practice.

	17:32.280 --> 17:33.880
	You started with C,

	17:33.880 --> 17:35.560
	what point did you pick up Python?

	17:35.560 --> 17:37.080
	Because you're pretty big in Python now.

	17:37.080 --> 17:39.960
	Now, yeah, in college,

	17:39.960 --> 17:42.520
	I went to Carnegie Mellon when I was 22.

	17:42.520 --> 17:44.200
	I went back, I'm like,

	17:44.200 --> 17:46.640
	I'm gonna take all your hardest CS courses

	17:46.640 --> 17:47.640
	and we'll see how I do, right?

	17:47.640 --> 17:48.560
	Like, did I miss anything

	17:48.560 --> 17:51.520
	by not having a real undergraduate education?

	17:51.520 --> 17:54.240
	Took operating systems, compilers, AI,

	17:54.240 --> 17:56.880
	and they're like a freshman Weeder math course.

	17:56.880 --> 18:01.880
	And some of those classes you mentioned,

	18:03.320 --> 18:04.240
	pretty tough, actually.

	18:04.240 --> 18:05.640
	They're great.

	18:05.640 --> 18:07.640
	At least when the 2012,

	18:07.640 --> 18:10.240
	circa 2012 operating systems and compilers

	18:11.240 --> 18:14.440
	were two of the best classes I've ever taken in my life.

	18:14.440 --> 18:15.640
	Because you write an operating system

	18:15.640 --> 18:16.840
	and you write a compiler.

	18:18.080 --> 18:19.760
	I wrote my operating system in C

	18:19.760 --> 18:21.400
	and I wrote my compiler in Haskell,

	18:21.400 --> 18:26.400
	but somehow I picked up Python that semester as well.

	18:26.400 --> 18:28.080
	I started using it for the CTFs, actually.

	18:28.080 --> 18:30.320
	That's when I really started to get into CTFs

	18:30.320 --> 18:33.360
	and CTFs, you're all to race against the clock.

	18:33.360 --> 18:35.120
	So I can't write things and see.

	18:35.120 --> 18:36.240
	Oh, there's a clock component.

	18:36.240 --> 18:37.840
	So you really want to use the programming language

	18:37.840 --> 18:38.960
	just so you can be fastest.

	18:38.960 --> 18:40.080
	48 hours.

	18:40.080 --> 18:41.440
	Pwn as many of these challenges as you can.

	18:41.440 --> 18:42.280
	Pwn.

	18:42.280 --> 18:43.120
	Yeah.

	18:43.120 --> 18:43.960
	You got like 100 points of challenge,

	18:43.960 --> 18:45.360
	whatever team gets the most.

	18:46.360 --> 18:50.240
	You were both at Facebook and Google for a brief stint.

	18:50.240 --> 18:51.080
	Yeah.

	18:51.080 --> 18:54.920
	With Project Zero, actually, at Google for five months

	18:54.920 --> 18:56.960
	where you develop Kira.

	18:56.960 --> 18:59.280
	What was Project Zero about in general?

	19:01.760 --> 19:05.160
	Just curious about the security efforts in these companies.

	19:05.160 --> 19:08.840
	Well, Project Zero started the same time I went there.

	19:08.840 --> 19:10.080
	What year is it there?

	19:11.080 --> 19:12.320
	2015.

	19:12.320 --> 19:13.160
	2015.

	19:13.160 --> 19:15.040
	So that was right at the beginning of Project Zero.

	19:15.040 --> 19:16.200
	It's small.

	19:16.200 --> 19:18.840
	It's Google's offensive security team.

	19:18.840 --> 19:23.840
	I'll try to give the best public facing explanation

	19:25.680 --> 19:26.520
	that I can.

	19:26.520 --> 19:30.960
	So the idea is basically,

	19:30.960 --> 19:33.240
	these vulnerabilities exist in the world.

	19:33.240 --> 19:35.240
	Nation states have them.

	19:35.240 --> 19:37.440
	Some high powered bad actors have them.

	19:39.840 --> 19:44.200
	Sometimes people will find these vulnerabilities

	19:44.200 --> 19:47.960
	and submit them in bug bounties to the companies.

	19:47.960 --> 19:49.440
	But a lot of the companies don't only care.

	19:49.440 --> 19:50.520
	They don't even fix the bug.

	19:50.520 --> 19:53.760
	It doesn't hurt for there to be a vulnerability.

	19:53.760 --> 19:55.880
	So Project Zero is like, we're going to do it different.

	19:55.880 --> 19:57.840
	We're going to announce a vulnerability

	19:57.840 --> 19:59.640
	and we're going to give them 90 days to fix it.

	19:59.640 --> 20:00.800
	And then whether they fix it or not,

	20:00.800 --> 20:03.200
	we're going to drop the Zero Day.

	20:03.200 --> 20:04.080
	Oh, wow.

	20:04.080 --> 20:05.240
	We're going to drop the weapon on the textbook.

	20:05.240 --> 20:06.080
	That's so cool.

	20:06.080 --> 20:07.480
	That is so cool.

	20:07.480 --> 20:09.200
	I love that deadlines.

	20:09.200 --> 20:10.040
	Oh, that's so cool.

	20:10.040 --> 20:10.880
	Give them real deadlines.

	20:10.880 --> 20:12.320
	Yeah.

	20:12.320 --> 20:15.800
	And I think it's done a lot for moving the industry forward.

	20:15.800 --> 20:20.360
	I watched your coding sessions on the streamed online.

	20:20.360 --> 20:25.280
	You code things up, the basic projects, usually from scratch.

	20:25.280 --> 20:28.200
	I would say, sort of as a programmer myself,

	20:28.200 --> 20:30.360
	just watching you, that you type really fast

	20:30.360 --> 20:34.440
	and your brain works in both brilliant and chaotic ways.

	20:34.440 --> 20:35.800
	I don't know if that's always true,

	20:35.800 --> 20:37.600
	but certainly for the live streams.

	20:37.600 --> 20:41.320
	So it's interesting to me because I'm much slower

	20:41.320 --> 20:43.520
	and systematic and careful.

	20:43.520 --> 20:48.040
	And you just move probably in order of magnitude faster.

	20:48.040 --> 20:51.800
	So I'm curious, is there a method to your madness?

	20:51.800 --> 20:53.040
	Or is it just who you are?

	20:53.040 --> 20:54.720
	There's pros and cons.

	20:54.720 --> 20:58.080
	There's pros and cons to my programming style.

	20:58.080 --> 21:00.360
	And I'm aware of them.

	21:00.360 --> 21:04.480
	If you ask me to get something up and working quickly

	21:04.480 --> 21:06.800
	with an API that's kind of undocumented,

	21:06.800 --> 21:08.880
	I will do this super fast because I will throw things

	21:08.880 --> 21:10.200
	at it until it works.

	21:10.200 --> 21:14.720
	If you ask me to take a vector and rotate it 90 degrees

	21:14.720 --> 21:19.320
	and then flip it over the X, Y plane,

	21:19.320 --> 21:22.280
	I'll spam program for two hours and won't get it.

	21:22.280 --> 21:23.480
	Oh, because it's something that you

	21:23.480 --> 21:26.240
	could do with a sheet of paper or think through design

	21:26.240 --> 21:30.400
	and then just you really just throw stuff at the wall

	21:30.400 --> 21:34.600
	and you get so good at it that it usually works.

	21:34.600 --> 21:36.920
	I should become better at the other kind as well.

	21:36.920 --> 21:39.440
	Sometimes I will do things methodically.

	21:39.440 --> 21:41.200
	It's nowhere near as entertaining on the Twitch streams.

	21:41.200 --> 21:43.520
	I do exaggerate it a bit on the Twitch streams as well.

	21:43.520 --> 21:45.480
	The Twitch streams, I mean, what do you want to see a game

	21:45.480 --> 21:46.840
	or you want to see actions permit, right?

	21:46.840 --> 21:48.200
	I'll show you APM for programming too.

	21:48.200 --> 21:50.280
	Yeah, I'd recommend people go to it.

	21:50.280 --> 21:53.800
	I think I watched probably several hours that you put,

	21:53.800 --> 21:57.480
	like I've actually left you programming in the background

	21:57.480 --> 22:00.400
	while I was programming because you made me,

	22:00.400 --> 22:03.120
	it was like watching a really good gamer.

	22:03.120 --> 22:06.240
	It's like energizes you because you're like moving so fast

	22:06.240 --> 22:08.840
	and so it's awesome, it's inspiring.

	22:08.840 --> 22:11.200
	It made me jealous that like,

	22:12.280 --> 22:14.280
	because my own programming is inadequate

	22:14.280 --> 22:16.960
	in terms of speed, so I was like.

	22:16.960 --> 22:20.520
	So I'm twice as frantic on the live streams

	22:20.520 --> 22:22.680
	as I am when I code without, oh.

	22:22.680 --> 22:23.720
	It's super entertaining.

	22:23.720 --> 22:26.400
	So I wasn't even paying attention to what you were coding,

	22:26.400 --> 22:29.760
	which is great, it's just watching you switch windows

	22:29.760 --> 22:31.400
	and Vim, I guess is the most way.

	22:31.400 --> 22:33.000
	Yeah, does Vim on screen?

	22:33.000 --> 22:35.640
	I've developed a workload Facebook and stuck with it.

	22:35.640 --> 22:37.320
	How do you learn new programming tools,

	22:37.320 --> 22:39.440
	ideas, techniques these days?

	22:39.440 --> 22:42.080
	What's your like methodology for learning new things?

	22:42.080 --> 22:45.920
	So I wrote for comma,

	22:47.200 --> 22:49.280
	the distributed file systems out in the world

	22:49.280 --> 22:50.720
	are extremely complex.

	22:50.720 --> 22:55.280
	Like if you want to install something like like like Ceph,

	22:55.280 --> 22:58.760
	Ceph is I think the like open infrastructure

	22:58.760 --> 23:03.040
	distributed file system or there's like newer ones

	23:03.040 --> 23:05.880
	like seaweed FS, but these are all like 10,000

	23:05.880 --> 23:06.880
	plus line projects.

	23:06.880 --> 23:09.520
	I think some of them are even 100,000 line

	23:09.520 --> 23:11.120
	and just configuring them as a nightmare.

	23:11.120 --> 23:16.120
	So I wrote, I wrote one, it's 200 lines

	23:16.440 --> 23:18.880
	and it uses like engine X of the line servers

	23:18.880 --> 23:21.600
	and has this little master server that I wrote and go.

	23:21.600 --> 23:24.840
	And the way I go, this, if I would say

	23:24.840 --> 23:27.240
	that I'm proud per line of any code I wrote,

	23:27.240 --> 23:29.160
	maybe there's some exploits that I think are beautiful

	23:29.160 --> 23:31.320
	and then this, this is 200 lines

	23:31.320 --> 23:33.720
	and just the way that I thought about it,

	23:33.720 --> 23:35.560
	I think was very good and the reason it's very good

	23:35.560 --> 23:37.640
	is because that was the fourth version of it that I wrote

	23:37.640 --> 23:39.320
	and I had three versions that I threw away.

	23:39.320 --> 23:41.000
	You mentioned, did you say go?

	23:41.000 --> 23:41.840
	I wrote a go, yeah.

	23:41.840 --> 23:42.680
	And go.

	23:42.680 --> 23:43.880
	Is that a functional language?

	23:43.880 --> 23:45.280
	I forget what go is.

	23:45.280 --> 23:47.160
	Go is Google's language.

	23:47.160 --> 23:48.200
	Right.

	23:48.200 --> 23:49.480
	It's not functional.

	23:49.480 --> 23:54.480
	It's some, it's like, in a way it's C++, but easier.

	23:56.160 --> 23:58.200
	It's strongly typed.

	23:58.200 --> 23:59.760
	It has a nice ecosystem around it.

	23:59.760 --> 24:01.680
	When I first looked at it, I was like,

	24:01.680 --> 24:03.800
	this is like Python, but it takes twice as long

	24:03.800 --> 24:05.600
	to do anything.

	24:05.600 --> 24:09.600
	Now that I've open pilot is migrating to C,

	24:09.600 --> 24:11.000
	but it still has large Python components,

	24:11.000 --> 24:12.760
	I now understand why Python doesn't work

	24:12.760 --> 24:15.840
	for large code bases and why you want something like go.

	24:15.840 --> 24:16.680
	Interesting.

	24:16.680 --> 24:18.680
	So why, why doesn't Python work for,

	24:18.680 --> 24:21.720
	so even most, speaking for myself at least,

	24:21.720 --> 24:24.960
	like we do a lot of stuff, basically demo level work

	24:24.960 --> 24:29.240
	with autonomous vehicles and most of the work is Python.

	24:29.240 --> 24:32.440
	Why doesn't Python work for large code bases?

	24:32.440 --> 24:37.440
	Because, well, lack of type checking is a big one.

	24:37.920 --> 24:39.360
	So errors creep in.

	24:39.360 --> 24:41.920
	Yeah, and like you don't know,

	24:41.920 --> 24:45.320
	the compiler can tell you like nothing, right?

	24:45.320 --> 24:48.440
	So everything is either, you know,

	24:48.440 --> 24:49.880
	like syntax errors, fine,

	24:49.880 --> 24:51.800
	but if you misspell a variable in Python,

	24:51.800 --> 24:53.000
	the compiler won't catch that.

	24:53.000 --> 24:56.600
	There's like linters that can catch it some of the time.

	24:56.600 --> 24:57.560
	There's no types.

	24:57.560 --> 25:00.520
	This is really the biggest downside.

	25:00.520 --> 25:02.640
	And then we'll Python slow, but that's not related to it.

	25:02.640 --> 25:04.840
	Well, maybe it's kind of related to it, so it's lack of.

	25:04.840 --> 25:06.600
	So what's in your toolbox these days?

	25:06.600 --> 25:07.760
	Is it Python or what else?

	25:07.760 --> 25:08.600
	Go.

	25:08.600 --> 25:10.240
	I need to move to something else.

	25:10.240 --> 25:12.880
	My adventure into dependently typed languages,

	25:12.880 --> 25:14.240
	I love these languages.

	25:14.240 --> 25:17.520
	They just have like syntax from the 80s.

	25:18.520 --> 25:21.120
	What do you think about JavaScript?

	25:21.120 --> 25:24.000
	ES6, like the modern type script?

	25:24.000 --> 25:27.320
	JavaScript is, the whole ecosystem

	25:27.320 --> 25:29.320
	is unbelievably confusing.

	25:29.320 --> 25:32.840
	NPM updates a package from 022 to 025

	25:32.840 --> 25:34.560
	and that breaks your Babel linter,

	25:34.560 --> 25:38.560
	which translates your ES5 into ES6, which doesn't run on.

	25:38.560 --> 25:42.480
	So why do I have to compile my JavaScript again, huh?

	25:42.480 --> 25:44.040
	It may be the future though.

	25:44.040 --> 25:45.800
	You think about, I mean,

	25:45.800 --> 25:47.400
	I've embraced JavaScript recently

	25:47.400 --> 25:52.280
	just because just like I've continually embraced PHP,

	25:52.280 --> 25:55.360
	it seems that these worst possible languages live on

	25:55.360 --> 25:57.480
	for the longest, like cockroaches never die.

	25:57.480 --> 26:00.760
	Yeah, well, it's in the browser and it's fast.

	26:00.760 --> 26:01.680
	It's fast.

	26:01.680 --> 26:02.520
	Yeah.

	26:02.520 --> 26:05.480
	It's in the browser and compute might stay become,

	26:05.480 --> 26:06.440
	you know, the browser,

	26:06.440 --> 26:09.040
	it's unclear what the role of the browser is

	26:09.040 --> 26:11.800
	in terms of distributed computation in the future.

	26:11.800 --> 26:12.640
	So.

	26:13.600 --> 26:15.240
	JavaScript is definitely here to stay.

	26:15.240 --> 26:16.080
	Yeah.

	26:16.080 --> 26:18.160
	It's interesting if autonomous vehicles

	26:18.160 --> 26:19.480
	will run on JavaScript one day.

	26:19.480 --> 26:21.760
	I mean, you have to consider these possibilities.

	26:21.760 --> 26:24.280
	Well, all our debug tools are JavaScript.

	26:24.280 --> 26:26.040
	We actually just open source them.

	26:26.040 --> 26:28.160
	We have a tool explorer, which you can annotate

	26:28.160 --> 26:30.080
	your disengagements and we have tool Kibana,

	26:30.080 --> 26:32.920
	which lets you analyze the can traffic from the car.

	26:32.920 --> 26:35.240
	So basically any time you're visualizing something

	26:35.240 --> 26:37.720
	about the log using JavaScript.

	26:37.720 --> 26:40.120
	Well, the web is the best UI toolkit by far.

	26:40.120 --> 26:40.960
	Yeah.

	26:40.960 --> 26:41.880
	So, and then, you know what?

	26:41.880 --> 26:42.760
	You're coding in JavaScript.

	26:42.760 --> 26:43.600
	We have a React guy.

	26:43.600 --> 26:44.440
	He's good.

	26:44.440 --> 26:46.080
	React, nice.

	26:46.080 --> 26:46.920
	Let's get into it.

	26:46.920 --> 26:49.120
	So let's talk autonomous vehicles.

	26:49.120 --> 26:50.640
	You found a comma AI.

	26:51.440 --> 26:54.920
	Let's, at a high level,

	26:54.920 --> 26:57.880
	how did you get into the world of vehicle automation?

	26:57.880 --> 26:59.920
	Can you also just, for people who don't know,

	26:59.920 --> 27:01.400
	tell the story of comma AI?

	27:01.400 --> 27:02.920
	Sure.

	27:02.920 --> 27:06.120
	So I was working at this AI startup

	27:06.120 --> 27:09.240
	and a friend approached me and he's like,

	27:09.240 --> 27:12.080
	dude, I don't know where this is going,

	27:12.080 --> 27:15.160
	but the coolest applied AI problem today

	27:15.160 --> 27:16.480
	is self driving cars.

	27:16.480 --> 27:17.720
	I'm like, well, absolutely.

	27:18.800 --> 27:20.520
	You wanna meet with Elon Musk

	27:20.520 --> 27:24.560
	and he's looking for somebody to build a vision system

	27:24.560 --> 27:27.600
	for autopilot.

	27:27.600 --> 27:29.320
	This is when they were still on AP one.

	27:29.320 --> 27:30.840
	They were still using Mobileye.

	27:30.840 --> 27:33.680
	Elon back then was looking for a replacement.

	27:33.680 --> 27:37.320
	And he brought me in and we talked about a contract

	27:37.320 --> 27:39.040
	where I would deliver something

	27:39.040 --> 27:41.640
	that meets Mobileye level performance.

	27:41.640 --> 27:43.920
	I would get paid $12 million if I could deliver it tomorrow

	27:43.920 --> 27:46.720
	and I would lose $1 million for every month I didn't deliver.

	27:47.720 --> 27:49.080
	So I was like, okay, this is a great deal.

	27:49.080 --> 27:50.800
	This is a super exciting challenge.

	27:52.360 --> 27:53.200
	You know what?

	27:53.200 --> 27:55.840
	It takes me 10 months, I get $2 million, it's good.

	27:55.840 --> 27:57.160
	Maybe I can finish up in five.

	27:57.160 --> 27:58.880
	Maybe I don't finish it at all and I get paid nothing

	27:58.880 --> 28:00.880
	and I'll work for 12 months for free.

	28:00.880 --> 28:02.960
	So maybe just take a pause on that.

	28:02.960 --> 28:04.280
	I'm also curious about this

	28:04.280 --> 28:06.360
	because I've been working in robotics for a long time.

	28:06.360 --> 28:08.320
	And I'm curious to see a person like you just step in

	28:08.320 --> 28:12.000
	and sort of somewhat naive, but brilliant, right?

	28:12.000 --> 28:14.000
	So that's the best place to be

	28:14.000 --> 28:17.240
	because you basically full steam take on a problem.

	28:17.240 --> 28:19.720
	How confident, from that time,

	28:19.720 --> 28:21.320
	because you know a lot more now,

	28:21.320 --> 28:23.440
	at that time, how hard do you think it is

	28:23.440 --> 28:25.880
	to solve all of autonomous driving?

	28:25.880 --> 28:30.440
	I remember I suggested to Elon in the meeting

	28:30.440 --> 28:33.120
	on putting a GPU behind each camera

	28:33.120 --> 28:35.120
	to keep the compute local.

	28:35.120 --> 28:38.000
	This is an incredibly stupid idea.

	28:38.000 --> 28:40.080
	I leave the meeting 10 minutes later and I'm like,

	28:40.080 --> 28:41.560
	I could have spent a little bit of time

	28:41.560 --> 28:42.880
	thinking about this problem before I went in.

	28:42.880 --> 28:44.200
	Why is this a stupid idea?

	28:44.200 --> 28:46.280
	Oh, just send all your cameras to one big GPU.

	28:46.280 --> 28:48.240
	You're much better off doing that.

	28:48.240 --> 28:50.160
	Oh, sorry, you said behind every camera.

	28:50.160 --> 28:51.000
	Every camera.

	28:51.000 --> 28:51.840
	Every small GPU.

	28:51.840 --> 28:52.720
	I was like, oh, I'll put the first few layers

	28:52.720 --> 28:54.520
	of my comms there.

	28:54.520 --> 28:56.080
	Like why did I say that?

	28:56.080 --> 28:56.920
	That's possible.

	28:56.920 --> 28:59.000
	It's possible, but it's a bad idea.

	28:59.000 --> 29:00.480
	It's not obviously a bad idea.

	29:00.480 --> 29:01.320
	Pretty obviously bad.

	29:01.320 --> 29:02.960
	But whether it's actually a bad idea or not,

	29:02.960 --> 29:05.240
	I left that meeting with Elon, like beating myself up.

	29:05.240 --> 29:07.080
	I'm like, why did I say something stupid?

	29:07.080 --> 29:09.360
	Yeah, you haven't, like you haven't at least

	29:09.360 --> 29:12.240
	like thought through every aspect fully.

	29:12.240 --> 29:13.200
	He's very sharp too.

	29:13.200 --> 29:15.760
	Like usually in life, I get away with saying stupid things

	29:15.760 --> 29:16.960
	and then kind of course,

	29:16.960 --> 29:18.560
	right away he called me out about it.

	29:18.560 --> 29:19.800
	And like, usually in life,

	29:19.800 --> 29:21.120
	I get away with saying stupid things.

	29:21.120 --> 29:24.640
	And then like people will, you know,

	29:24.640 --> 29:26.080
	a lot of times people don't even notice.

	29:26.080 --> 29:28.200
	And I'll like correct it and bring the conversation back.

	29:28.200 --> 29:30.600
	But with Elon, it was like, nope, like, okay.

	29:30.600 --> 29:33.520
	Well, that's not at all why the contract fell through.

	29:33.520 --> 29:35.520
	I was much more prepared the second time I met him.

	29:35.520 --> 29:36.360
	Yeah.

	29:36.360 --> 29:39.640
	But in general, how hard did you think it,

	29:39.640 --> 29:43.680
	like 12 months is a tough timeline?

	29:43.680 --> 29:45.720
	Oh, I just thought I'd clone Mobileye IQ three.

	29:45.720 --> 29:47.560
	I didn't think I'd solve level five self driving

	29:47.560 --> 29:48.400
	or anything.

	29:48.400 --> 29:51.000
	So the goal there was to do lane keeping,

	29:51.000 --> 29:52.840
	good lane keeping.

	29:52.840 --> 29:55.560
	I saw my friend showed me the outputs from Mobileye.

	29:55.560 --> 29:57.680
	And the outputs from Mobileye was just basically two lanes

	29:57.680 --> 29:59.440
	and a position of a lead car.

	29:59.440 --> 30:01.560
	I'm like, I can gather a data set

	30:01.560 --> 30:03.440
	and train this net in weeks.

	30:03.440 --> 30:04.840
	And I did.

	30:04.840 --> 30:07.600
	Well, first time I tried the implementation of Mobileye

	30:07.600 --> 30:11.240
	in a Tesla, I was really surprised how good it is.

	30:11.240 --> 30:12.320
	It's quite incredibly good.

	30:12.320 --> 30:14.080
	Cause I thought it's just cause I've done

	30:14.080 --> 30:14.920
	a lot of computer vision.

	30:14.920 --> 30:18.880
	I thought it'd be a lot harder to create a system

	30:18.880 --> 30:20.040
	that that's stable.

	30:21.000 --> 30:22.440
	So I was personally surprised.

	30:22.440 --> 30:25.000
	Just, you know, have to admit it.

	30:25.000 --> 30:27.840
	Cause I was kind of skeptical before trying it.

	30:27.840 --> 30:31.200
	Cause I thought it would go in and out a lot more.

	30:31.200 --> 30:33.160
	It would get disengaged a lot more.

	30:33.160 --> 30:35.000
	And it's pretty robust.

	30:36.200 --> 30:39.720
	So what, how, how, how hard is the problem

	30:39.720 --> 30:42.080
	when you, when you tackled it?

	30:42.080 --> 30:45.760
	So I think AP one was great. Like Elon talked

	30:45.760 --> 30:49.040
	about disengagements on the 405 down in LA

	30:49.040 --> 30:51.040
	with like the lane marks were kind of faded

	30:51.040 --> 30:52.960
	and the Mobileye system would drop out.

	30:53.960 --> 30:57.240
	Like I had something up and working

	30:57.240 --> 31:01.440
	that I would say was like the same quality in three months.

	31:02.480 --> 31:04.560
	Same quality, but how do you know?

	31:04.560 --> 31:07.400
	You say stuff like that confidently, but you can't,

	31:07.400 --> 31:12.120
	and I love it, but the question is you can't,

	31:12.120 --> 31:13.880
	you're kind of going by feel cause you just,

	31:13.880 --> 31:15.560
	You're going by feel, absolutely, absolutely.

	31:15.560 --> 31:17.280
	Like, like I would take, I hadn't,

	31:17.280 --> 31:18.480
	I borrowed my friend's Tesla.

	31:18.480 --> 31:20.760
	I would take AP one out for a drive.

	31:20.760 --> 31:22.320
	And then I would take my system out for a drive.

	31:22.320 --> 31:24.440
	And seems reasonably like the same.

	31:26.080 --> 31:30.480
	So the 405, how hard is it to create something

	31:30.480 --> 31:34.200
	that could actually be a product that's deployed?

	31:34.200 --> 31:39.200
	I mean, I've read an article where Elon, this respond,

	31:39.520 --> 31:41.880
	it said something about you saying that

	31:41.880 --> 31:46.880
	to build autopilot is more complicated

	31:47.080 --> 31:51.880
	than a single George Hodds level job.

	31:51.880 --> 31:55.520
	How hard is that job to create something

	31:55.520 --> 31:57.480
	that would work across the globally?

	31:58.960 --> 32:00.640
	Why don't the global is the challenge,

	32:00.640 --> 32:02.240
	but Elon followed that up by saying

	32:02.240 --> 32:04.920
	it's going to take two years and a company of 10 people.

	32:04.920 --> 32:07.920
	And here I am four years later with a company of 12 people.

	32:07.920 --> 32:09.960
	And I think we still have another two to go.

	32:09.960 --> 32:10.800
	Two years.

	32:10.800 --> 32:13.120
	So yeah, so what do you think,

	32:13.120 --> 32:15.960
	what do you think about how Tesla's progressing

	32:15.960 --> 32:19.200
	with autopilot of V2, V3?

	32:19.200 --> 32:23.120
	I think we've kept pace with them pretty well.

	32:24.080 --> 32:26.880
	I think navigating autopilot is terrible.

	32:26.880 --> 32:31.120
	We had some demo features internally of the same stuff

	32:31.120 --> 32:32.720
	and we would test it and I'm like,

	32:32.720 --> 32:34.720
	I'm not shipping this even as like open source software

	32:34.720 --> 32:35.560
	to people.

	32:35.560 --> 32:37.400
	What do you think is terrible?

	32:37.400 --> 32:39.600
	Consumer Reports does a great job of describing it.

	32:39.600 --> 32:41.240
	Like when it makes a lane change,

	32:41.240 --> 32:43.600
	it does it worse than a human.

	32:43.600 --> 32:46.960
	You shouldn't ship things like autopilot, open pilot,

	32:46.960 --> 32:49.760
	they lane keep better than a human.

	32:49.760 --> 32:53.440
	If you turn it on for a stretch of highway,

	32:53.440 --> 32:56.680
	like an hour long, it's never going to touch a lane line.

	32:56.680 --> 32:59.040
	Human will touch probably a lane line twice.

	32:59.040 --> 33:00.080
	You just inspired me.

	33:00.080 --> 33:02.200
	I don't know if you're grounded in data on that.

	33:02.200 --> 33:03.280
	I read your paper.

	33:03.280 --> 33:05.400
	Okay, but no, but that's interesting.

	33:06.720 --> 33:09.840
	I wonder actually how often we touch lane lines

	33:11.200 --> 33:13.400
	a little bit because it is.

	33:13.400 --> 33:14.960
	I could answer that question pretty easily

	33:14.960 --> 33:15.800
	with the common data side.

	33:15.800 --> 33:16.920
	Yeah, I'm curious.

	33:16.920 --> 33:17.760
	I've never answered it.

	33:17.760 --> 33:18.600
	I don't know.

	33:18.600 --> 33:20.000
	I just too was like my personal.

	33:20.000 --> 33:22.400
	It feels right, but that's interesting

	33:22.400 --> 33:23.800
	because every time you touch a lane,

	33:23.800 --> 33:26.760
	that's a source of a little bit of stress

	33:26.760 --> 33:29.320
	and kind of lane keeping is removing that stress.

	33:29.320 --> 33:31.840
	That's ultimately the biggest value add

	33:31.840 --> 33:34.240
	honestly is just removing the stress

	33:34.240 --> 33:35.480
	of having to stay in lane.

	33:35.480 --> 33:39.040
	And I think I don't think people fully realize

	33:39.040 --> 33:41.960
	first of all that that's a big value add,

	33:41.960 --> 33:45.000
	but also that that's all it is.

	33:45.000 --> 33:48.560
	And that not only I find it a huge value add.

	33:48.560 --> 33:50.440
	I drove down when we moved to San Diego,

	33:50.440 --> 33:52.640
	I drove down in an enterprise rental car

	33:52.640 --> 33:53.480
	and I missed it.

	33:53.480 --> 33:55.480
	So I missed having the system so much.

	33:55.480 --> 33:59.200
	It's so much more tiring to drive

	33:59.200 --> 34:00.320
	without it.

	34:00.320 --> 34:02.960
	It's, it is that lane centering.

	34:02.960 --> 34:04.840
	That's the key feature.

	34:04.840 --> 34:05.680
	Yeah.

	34:06.600 --> 34:08.960
	And in a way it's the only feature

	34:08.960 --> 34:11.040
	that actually adds value to people's lives

	34:11.040 --> 34:12.200
	in autonomous vehicles today.

	34:12.200 --> 34:13.840
	Waymo does not add value to people's lives.

	34:13.840 --> 34:15.880
	It's a more expensive, slower Uber.

	34:15.880 --> 34:18.640
	Maybe someday it'll be this big cliff where it adds value,

	34:18.640 --> 34:19.480
	but I don't usually.

	34:19.480 --> 34:20.320
	It's fascinating.

	34:20.320 --> 34:22.560
	I haven't talked to, this is good.

	34:22.560 --> 34:25.840
	Cause I haven't, I have intuitively,

	34:25.840 --> 34:28.320
	but I think we're making it explicit now.

	34:28.320 --> 34:33.320
	I actually believe that really good lane keeping

	34:35.480 --> 34:37.240
	is a reason to buy a car.

	34:37.240 --> 34:38.440
	Will be a reason to buy a car.

	34:38.440 --> 34:39.720
	It is a huge value add.

	34:39.720 --> 34:41.760
	I've never, until we just started talking about it,

	34:41.760 --> 34:43.880
	haven't really quite realized it,

	34:43.880 --> 34:48.880
	that I've felt with Elon's chase of level four

	34:49.440 --> 34:52.360
	is not the correct chase.

	34:52.360 --> 34:56.000
	It was on, cause you should just say Tesla has the best

	34:56.000 --> 34:58.320
	as if from a Tesla perspective say,

	34:58.320 --> 35:00.600
	Tesla has the best lane keeping.

	35:00.600 --> 35:04.160
	Kama AI should say Kama AI is the best lane keeping.

	35:04.160 --> 35:05.640
	And that is it.

	35:05.640 --> 35:06.480
	Yeah.

	35:06.480 --> 35:07.320
	Yeah.

	35:07.320 --> 35:08.160
	Do you think?

	35:08.160 --> 35:09.920
	You have to do the longitudinal as well.

	35:09.920 --> 35:10.960
	You can't just lane keep.

	35:10.960 --> 35:12.920
	You have to do ACC,

	35:12.920 --> 35:15.840
	but ACC is much more forgiving than lane keep,

	35:15.840 --> 35:17.400
	especially on the highway.

	35:17.400 --> 35:22.000
	By the way, are you Kama AI's camera only, correct?

	35:22.000 --> 35:23.440
	No, we use the radar.

	35:23.440 --> 35:26.960
	We, from the car, you're able to get to, okay.

	35:26.960 --> 35:28.800
	We can do it camera only now.

	35:28.800 --> 35:29.640
	It's gotten to the point,

	35:29.640 --> 35:31.600
	but we leave the radar there as like a,

	35:31.600 --> 35:33.440
	it's fusion now.

	35:33.440 --> 35:35.440
	Okay, so let's maybe talk through

	35:35.440 --> 35:37.920
	some of the system specs on the hardware.

	35:37.920 --> 35:42.880
	What's the hardware side of what you're providing?

	35:42.880 --> 35:44.720
	What's the capabilities on the software side

	35:44.720 --> 35:46.800
	with OpenPilot and so on?

	35:46.800 --> 35:51.800
	So OpenPilot as the box that we sell that it runs on,

	35:51.800 --> 35:53.920
	it's a phone in a plastic case.

	35:53.920 --> 35:54.840
	It's nothing special.

	35:54.840 --> 35:56.200
	We sell it without the software.

	35:56.200 --> 35:57.840
	So you're like, you know, you buy the phone,

	35:57.840 --> 35:58.920
	it's just easy.

	35:58.920 --> 36:00.240
	It'll be easy set up,

	36:00.240 --> 36:01.720
	but it's sold with no software.

	36:03.480 --> 36:06.600
	OpenPilot right now is about to be 0.6.

	36:06.600 --> 36:07.880
	When it gets to 1.0,

	36:07.880 --> 36:09.680
	I think we'll be ready for a consumer product.

	36:09.680 --> 36:11.120
	We're not gonna add any new features.

	36:11.120 --> 36:13.800
	We're just gonna make the lane keeping really, really good.

	36:13.800 --> 36:15.120
	Okay, I got it.

	36:15.120 --> 36:16.120
	So what do we have right now?

	36:16.120 --> 36:18.200
	It's a Snapdragon 820.

	36:18.200 --> 36:23.200
	It's a Sony IMX 298 forward facing camera,

	36:23.680 --> 36:24.720
	driver monitoring camera.

	36:24.720 --> 36:26.400
	It's just a selfie cam on the phone.

	36:26.400 --> 36:30.000
	And a can transceiver,

	36:30.000 --> 36:32.320
	maybe it's a little thing called pandas.

	36:32.320 --> 36:35.040
	And they talk over USB to the phone

	36:35.040 --> 36:36.400
	and then they have three can buses

	36:36.400 --> 36:37.560
	that they talk to the car.

	36:38.560 --> 36:40.920
	One of those can buses is the radar can bus.

	36:40.920 --> 36:42.920
	One of them is the main car can bus.

	36:42.920 --> 36:44.920
	And the other one is the proxy camera can bus.

	36:44.920 --> 36:47.320
	We leave the existing camera in place.

	36:47.320 --> 36:49.560
	So we don't turn AEB off.

	36:49.560 --> 36:51.040
	Right now we still turn AEB off

	36:51.040 --> 36:52.280
	if you're using our longitudinal,

	36:52.280 --> 36:54.320
	but we're gonna fix that before 1.0.

	36:54.320 --> 36:55.160
	Got it.

	36:55.160 --> 36:56.000
	Wow, that's cool.

	36:56.000 --> 36:57.960
	So in its can both ways.

	36:57.960 --> 37:02.120
	So how are you able to control vehicles?

	37:02.120 --> 37:05.520
	So we proxy the vehicles that we work with

	37:05.520 --> 37:08.960
	already have a lane keeping assist system.

	37:08.960 --> 37:12.520
	So lane keeping assist can mean a huge variety of things.

	37:12.520 --> 37:16.120
	It can mean it will apply a small torque

	37:16.120 --> 37:18.920
	to the wheel after you've already crossed a lane line

	37:18.920 --> 37:22.720
	by a foot, which is the system in the older Toyotas.

	37:22.720 --> 37:26.360
	Versus like, I think Tesla still calls it lane keeping assist

	37:26.360 --> 37:28.920
	where it'll keep you perfectly in the center of the lane

	37:28.920 --> 37:29.960
	on the highway.

	37:31.240 --> 37:34.000
	You can control like you with the joystick, the cars.

	37:34.000 --> 37:36.600
	So these cars already have the capability of drive by wire.

	37:36.600 --> 37:41.600
	So is it, is it trivial to convert a car

	37:41.600 --> 37:43.320
	that it operates with?

	37:43.320 --> 37:47.480
	It open pilot is able to control the steering.

	37:48.480 --> 37:49.720
	Oh, a new car or a car that we,

	37:49.720 --> 37:52.800
	so we have support now for 45 different makes of cars.

	37:52.800 --> 37:54.880
	What are the cars in general?

	37:54.880 --> 37:56.360
	Mostly Honda's and Toyotas.

	37:56.360 --> 38:00.640
	We support almost every Honda and Toyota made this year.

	38:01.680 --> 38:04.480
	And then bunch of GM's, bunch of Subaru's.

	38:04.480 --> 38:05.960
	But it doesn't have to be like a Prius.

	38:05.960 --> 38:07.320
	It could be Corolla as well.

	38:07.320 --> 38:10.760
	Oh, the 2020 Corolla is the best car with open pilot.

	38:10.760 --> 38:11.720
	It just came out there.

	38:11.720 --> 38:14.200
	The actuator has less lag than the older Corolla.

	38:15.840 --> 38:18.240
	I think I started watching a video with you.

	38:18.240 --> 38:21.480
	I mean, the way you make videos is awesome.

	38:21.480 --> 38:24.320
	It's just literally at the dealership streaming.

	38:25.320 --> 38:26.160
	I had my friend to follow him.

	38:26.160 --> 38:27.560
	I probably want to stream for an hour.

	38:27.560 --> 38:31.120
	Yeah, and basically like if stuff goes a little wrong,

	38:31.120 --> 38:33.160
	you just like, you just go with it.

	38:33.160 --> 38:34.000
	Yeah, I love it.

	38:34.000 --> 38:34.840
	It's real.

	38:34.840 --> 38:35.680
	Yeah, it's real.

	38:35.680 --> 38:42.000
	That's so beautiful and it's so in contrast to the way

	38:42.000 --> 38:44.600
	other companies would put together a video like that.

	38:44.600 --> 38:46.000
	Kind of why I like to do it like that.

	38:46.000 --> 38:46.840
	Good.

	38:46.840 --> 38:49.720
	I mean, if you become super rich one day and successful,

	38:49.720 --> 38:52.280
	I hope you keep it that way because I think that's actually

	38:52.280 --> 38:54.600
	what people love, that kind of genuine.

	38:54.600 --> 38:56.520
	Oh, it's all that has value to me.

	38:56.520 --> 38:59.840
	Money has no, if I sell out to like make money,

	38:59.840 --> 39:00.680
	I sold out.

	39:00.680 --> 39:01.520
	It doesn't matter.

	39:01.520 --> 39:02.360
	What do I get?

	39:02.360 --> 39:04.440
	Yacht, I don't want a yacht.

	39:04.440 --> 39:09.440
	And I think Tesla actually has a small inkling of that

	39:09.440 --> 39:11.240
	as well with autonomy day.

	39:11.240 --> 39:14.000
	They did reveal more than, I mean, of course,

	39:14.000 --> 39:15.680
	there's marketing communications, you could tell,

	39:15.680 --> 39:17.640
	but it's more than most companies would reveal,

	39:17.640 --> 39:20.960
	which is I hope they go towards that direction

	39:20.960 --> 39:23.000
	more other companies, GM, Ford.

	39:23.000 --> 39:25.400
	Oh, Tesla's going to win level five.

	39:25.400 --> 39:26.560
	They really are.

	39:26.560 --> 39:27.800
	So let's talk about it.

	39:27.800 --> 39:33.000
	You think, you're focused on level two currently, currently.

	39:33.000 --> 39:36.160
	We're going to be one to two years behind Tesla

	39:36.160 --> 39:37.160
	getting to level five.

	39:37.160 --> 39:38.520
	OK.

	39:38.520 --> 39:39.320
	We're Android, right?

	39:39.320 --> 39:39.880
	We're Android.

	39:39.880 --> 39:40.680
	You're Android.

	39:40.680 --> 39:42.240
	I'm just saying once Tesla gets it,

	39:42.240 --> 39:43.440
	we're one to two years behind.

	39:43.440 --> 39:45.680
	I'm not making any timeline on when Tesla's going to get it.

	39:45.680 --> 39:46.120
	That's right.

	39:46.120 --> 39:46.360
	You did.

	39:46.360 --> 39:46.960
	That's brilliant.

	39:46.960 --> 39:48.560
	I'm sorry, Tesla investors, if you

	39:48.560 --> 39:50.520
	think you're going to have an autonomous robot taxi

	39:50.520 --> 39:54.920
	fleet by the end of the year, I'll bet against that.

	39:54.920 --> 39:57.720
	So what do you think about this?

	39:57.720 --> 40:03.280
	The most level four companies are kind of just

	40:03.280 --> 40:08.360
	doing their usual safety driver, doing full autonomy kind

	40:08.360 --> 40:08.800
	of testing.

	40:08.800 --> 40:10.880
	And then Tesla does basically trying

	40:10.880 --> 40:15.280
	to go from lane keeping to full autonomy.

	40:15.280 --> 40:16.840
	What do you think about that approach?

	40:16.840 --> 40:18.360
	How successful would it be?

	40:18.360 --> 40:20.680
	It's a ton better approach.

	40:20.680 --> 40:23.960
	Because Tesla is gathering data on a scale

	40:23.960 --> 40:25.200
	that none of them are.

	40:25.200 --> 40:29.560
	They're putting real users behind the wheel of the cars.

	40:29.560 --> 40:34.440
	It's, I think, the only strategy that works, the incremental.

	40:34.440 --> 40:37.000
	Well, so there's a few components to Tesla approach

	40:37.000 --> 40:38.800
	that's more than just the incremental.

	40:38.800 --> 40:41.400
	What you spoke with is the software,

	40:41.400 --> 40:43.720
	so over the air software updates.

	40:43.720 --> 40:44.800
	Necessity.

	40:44.800 --> 40:46.440
	I mean, Waymo crews have those too.

	40:46.440 --> 40:47.560
	Those aren't.

	40:47.560 --> 40:48.080
	But no.

	40:48.080 --> 40:49.800
	Those differentiate from the automakers.

	40:49.800 --> 40:50.080
	Right.

	40:50.080 --> 40:53.440
	No lane keeping systems have no cars with lane keeping system

	40:53.440 --> 40:54.760
	have that except Tesla.

	40:54.760 --> 40:55.720
	Yeah.

	40:55.720 --> 40:59.760
	And the other one is the data, the other direction,

	40:59.760 --> 41:01.840
	which is the ability to query the data.

	41:01.840 --> 41:03.480
	I don't think they're actually collecting

	41:03.480 --> 41:05.240
	as much data as people think, but the ability

	41:05.240 --> 41:09.440
	to turn on collection and turn it off.

	41:09.440 --> 41:13.400
	So I'm both in the robotics world, in the psychology,

	41:13.400 --> 41:15.000
	human factors world.

	41:15.000 --> 41:17.320
	Many people believe that level two autonomy

	41:17.320 --> 41:20.040
	is problematic because of the human factor.

	41:20.040 --> 41:23.280
	Like the more the task is automated,

	41:23.280 --> 41:25.960
	the more there's a vigilance decrement.

	41:25.960 --> 41:27.200
	You start to fall asleep.

	41:27.200 --> 41:30.480
	You start to become complacent, start texting more and so on.

	41:30.480 --> 41:32.200
	Do you worry about that?

	41:32.200 --> 41:35.000
	Because if you're talking about transition from lane keeping

	41:35.000 --> 41:40.960
	to full autonomy, if you're spending 80% of the time

	41:40.960 --> 41:43.080
	not supervising the machine, do you

	41:43.080 --> 41:47.080
	worry about what that means for the safety of the drivers?

	41:47.080 --> 41:49.640
	One, we don't consider OpenPilot to be 1.0

	41:49.640 --> 41:52.880
	until we have 100% driver monitoring.

	41:52.880 --> 41:55.000
	You can cheat right now, our driver monitoring system.

	41:55.000 --> 41:56.080
	There's a few ways to cheat it.

	41:56.080 --> 41:58.160
	They're pretty obvious.

	41:58.160 --> 41:59.680
	We're working on making that better.

	41:59.680 --> 42:02.520
	Before we ship a consumer product that can drive cars,

	42:02.520 --> 42:04.240
	I want to make sure that I have driver monitoring

	42:04.240 --> 42:05.440
	that you can't cheat.

	42:05.440 --> 42:09.000
	What's a successful driver monitoring system look like?

	42:09.000 --> 42:11.680
	Is it all about just keeping your eyes on the road?

	42:11.680 --> 42:12.760
	Well, a few things.

	42:12.760 --> 42:16.600
	So that's what we went with at first for driver monitoring.

	42:16.600 --> 42:17.160
	I'm checking.

	42:17.160 --> 42:19.000
	I'm actually looking at where your head is looking.

	42:19.000 --> 42:19.880
	The camera's not that high.

	42:19.880 --> 42:21.840
	Resolution eyes are a little bit hard to get.

	42:21.840 --> 42:22.880
	Well, head is big.

	42:22.880 --> 42:23.560
	I mean, that's just.

	42:23.560 --> 42:24.640
	Head is good.

	42:24.640 --> 42:28.720
	And actually, a lot of it, just psychology wise,

	42:28.720 --> 42:30.720
	to have that monitor constantly there,

	42:30.720 --> 42:33.400
	it reminds you that you have to be paying attention.

	42:33.400 --> 42:35.080
	But we want to go further.

	42:35.080 --> 42:36.760
	We just hired someone full time to come on

	42:36.760 --> 42:37.960
	to do the driver monitoring.

	42:37.960 --> 42:40.600
	I want to detect phone in frame, and I

	42:40.600 --> 42:42.600
	want to make sure you're not sleeping.

	42:42.600 --> 42:44.880
	How much does the camera see of the body?

	42:44.880 --> 42:47.480
	This one, not enough.

	42:47.480 --> 42:48.400
	Not enough.

	42:48.400 --> 42:50.720
	The next one, everything.

	42:50.720 --> 42:52.920
	What's interesting, FishEye, is we're

	42:52.920 --> 42:55.200
	doing just data collection, not real time.

	42:55.200 --> 42:59.200
	But FishEye is a beautiful being able to capture the body.

	42:59.200 --> 43:03.280
	And the smartphone is really the biggest problem.

	43:03.280 --> 43:03.880
	I'll show you.

	43:03.880 --> 43:07.800
	I can show you one of the pictures from our new system.

	43:07.800 --> 43:08.160
	Awesome.

	43:08.160 --> 43:10.520
	So you're basically saying the driver monitoring

	43:10.520 --> 43:13.080
	will be the answer to that.

	43:13.080 --> 43:15.320
	I think the other point that you raised in your paper

	43:15.320 --> 43:16.920
	is good as well.

	43:16.920 --> 43:20.400
	You're not asking a human to supervise a machine

	43:20.400 --> 43:23.920
	without giving them the they can take over at any time.

	43:23.920 --> 43:25.760
	Our safety model, you can take over.

	43:25.760 --> 43:27.720
	We disengage on both the gas or the brake.

	43:27.720 --> 43:28.880
	We don't disengage on steering.

	43:28.880 --> 43:29.920
	I don't feel you have to.

	43:29.920 --> 43:31.720
	But we disengage on gas or brake.

	43:31.720 --> 43:34.240
	So it's very easy for you to take over.

	43:34.240 --> 43:36.400
	And it's very easy for you to reengage.

	43:36.400 --> 43:39.320
	That switching should be super cheap.

	43:39.320 --> 43:40.800
	The cars that require, even autopilot,

	43:40.800 --> 43:42.400
	requires a double press.

	43:42.400 --> 43:44.360
	That's almost, I see, I don't like that.

	43:44.360 --> 43:46.440
	And then the cancel.

	43:46.440 --> 43:48.320
	To cancel in autopilot, you either

	43:48.320 --> 43:49.920
	have to press cancel, which no one knows where that is.

	43:49.920 --> 43:51.000
	So they press the brake.

	43:51.000 --> 43:53.360
	But a lot of times you don't want to press the brake.

	43:53.360 --> 43:54.560
	You want to press the gas.

	43:54.560 --> 43:56.880
	So you should cancel on gas or wiggle the steering wheel,

	43:56.880 --> 43:57.960
	which is bad as well.

	43:57.960 --> 43:58.920
	Wow, that's brilliant.

	43:58.920 --> 44:01.440
	I haven't heard anyone articulate that point.

	44:01.440 --> 44:04.960
	Oh, there's a lot I think about.

	44:04.960 --> 44:09.800
	Because I think actually Tesla has done a better job

	44:09.800 --> 44:12.920
	than most automakers at making that frictionless.

	44:12.920 --> 44:16.600
	But you just described that it could be even better.

	44:16.600 --> 44:19.320
	I love Super Cruise as an experience.

	44:19.320 --> 44:21.120
	Once it's engaged.

	44:21.120 --> 44:22.800
	I don't know if you've used it, but getting the thing

	44:22.800 --> 44:25.040
	to try to engage.

	44:25.040 --> 44:27.480
	Yeah, I've used the driven Super Cruise a lot.

	44:27.480 --> 44:29.680
	So what's your thoughts on the Super Cruise system in general?

	44:29.680 --> 44:32.640
	You disengage Super Cruise, and it falls back to ACC.

	44:32.640 --> 44:34.600
	So my car is still accelerating.

	44:34.600 --> 44:36.280
	It feels weird.

	44:36.280 --> 44:39.000
	Otherwise, when you actually have Super Cruise engaged

	44:39.000 --> 44:41.200
	on the highway, it is phenomenal.

	44:41.200 --> 44:42.320
	We bought that Cadillac.

	44:42.320 --> 44:43.240
	We just sold it.

	44:43.240 --> 44:45.600
	But we bought it just to experience this.

	44:45.600 --> 44:47.440
	And I wanted everyone in the office to be like,

	44:47.440 --> 44:49.360
	this is what we're striving to build.

	44:49.360 --> 44:52.800
	GM pioneering with the driver monitoring.

	44:52.800 --> 44:55.040
	You like their driver monitoring system?

	44:55.040 --> 44:56.440
	It has some bugs.

	44:56.440 --> 45:01.960
	If there's a sun shining back here, it'll be blind to you.

	45:01.960 --> 45:03.360
	But overall, mostly, yeah.

	45:03.360 --> 45:05.960
	That's so cool that you know all this stuff.

	45:05.960 --> 45:09.960
	I don't often talk to people that because it's such a rare car,

	45:09.960 --> 45:10.960
	unfortunately, currently.

	45:10.960 --> 45:12.760
	We bought one explicitly for that.

	45:12.760 --> 45:15.040
	We lost like $25K in the deprecation,

	45:15.040 --> 45:16.720
	but it feels worth it.

	45:16.720 --> 45:21.280
	I was very pleasantly surprised that our GM system

	45:21.280 --> 45:26.320
	was so innovative and really wasn't advertised much,

	45:26.320 --> 45:28.480
	wasn't talked about much.

	45:28.480 --> 45:31.840
	And I was nervous that it would die, that it would disappear.

	45:31.840 --> 45:33.520
	Well, they put it on the wrong car.

	45:33.520 --> 45:35.680
	They should have put it on the bolt and not some weird Cadillac

	45:35.680 --> 45:36.640
	that nobody bought.

	45:36.640 --> 45:39.520
	I think that's going to be into, they're saying at least

	45:39.520 --> 45:41.840
	it's going to be into their entire fleet.

	45:41.840 --> 45:44.320
	So what do you think about, as long as we're

	45:44.320 --> 45:46.920
	on the driver monitoring, what do you think

	45:46.920 --> 45:51.920
	about Elon Musk's claim that driver monitoring is not needed?

	45:51.920 --> 45:53.680
	Normally, I love his claims.

	45:53.680 --> 45:55.560
	That one is stupid.

	45:55.560 --> 45:56.560
	That one is stupid.

	45:56.560 --> 46:00.320
	And he's not going to have his level five fleet

	46:00.320 --> 46:01.320
	by the end of the year.

	46:01.320 --> 46:04.880
	Hopefully, he's like, OK, I was wrong.

	46:04.880 --> 46:06.280
	I'm going to add driver monitoring.

	46:06.280 --> 46:08.240
	Because when these systems get to the point

	46:08.240 --> 46:10.320
	that they're only messing up once every 1,000 miles,

	46:10.320 --> 46:14.080
	you absolutely need driver monitoring.

	46:14.080 --> 46:15.880
	So let me play, because I agree with you,

	46:15.880 --> 46:17.320
	but let me play devil's advocate.

	46:17.320 --> 46:22.440
	One possibility is that without driver monitoring,

	46:22.440 --> 46:29.400
	people are able to self regulate, monitor themselves.

	46:29.400 --> 46:30.680
	So your idea is, I'm just.

	46:30.680 --> 46:34.160
	You're seeing all the people sleeping in Teslas?

	46:34.160 --> 46:35.280
	Yeah.

	46:35.280 --> 46:38.320
	Well, I'm a little skeptical of all the people sleeping

	46:38.320 --> 46:43.960
	in Teslas because I've stopped paying attention to that kind

	46:43.960 --> 46:45.680
	of stuff because I want to see real data.

	46:45.680 --> 46:47.240
	It's too much glorified.

	46:47.240 --> 46:48.720
	It doesn't feel scientific to me.

	46:48.720 --> 46:52.560
	So I want to know how many people are really sleeping

	46:52.560 --> 46:55.080
	in Teslas versus sleeping.

	46:55.080 --> 46:57.640
	I was driving here, sleep deprived,

	46:57.640 --> 46:59.520
	in a car with no automation.

	46:59.520 --> 47:01.040
	I was falling asleep.

	47:01.040 --> 47:02.120
	I agree that it's hypey.

	47:02.120 --> 47:04.840
	It's just like, you know what?

	47:04.840 --> 47:08.480
	If Elon put driver monitoring, my last autopilot experience

	47:08.480 --> 47:12.200
	was I rented a Model 3 in March and drove it around.

	47:12.200 --> 47:13.640
	The wheel thing is annoying.

	47:13.640 --> 47:15.440
	And the reason the wheel thing is annoying.

	47:15.440 --> 47:17.080
	We use the wheel thing as well, but we

	47:17.080 --> 47:18.720
	don't disengage on wheel.

	47:18.720 --> 47:21.720
	For Tesla, you have to touch the wheel just enough

	47:21.720 --> 47:25.320
	to trigger the torque sensor to tell it that you're there,

	47:25.320 --> 47:29.720
	but not enough as to disengage it, which don't use it

	47:29.720 --> 47:30.440
	for two things.

	47:30.440 --> 47:31.360
	Don't disengage on wheel.

	47:31.360 --> 47:32.400
	You don't have to.

	47:32.400 --> 47:35.360
	That whole experience, wow, beautifully put.

	47:35.360 --> 47:38.360
	All those elements, even if you don't have driver monitoring,

	47:38.360 --> 47:41.080
	that whole experience needs to be better.

	47:41.080 --> 47:43.760
	Driver monitoring, I think would make,

	47:43.760 --> 47:46.200
	I mean, I think supercruise is a better experience

	47:46.200 --> 47:48.440
	once it's engaged over autopilot.

	47:48.440 --> 47:51.600
	I think supercruise is a transition to engagement

	47:51.600 --> 47:55.200
	and disengagement are significantly worse.

	47:55.200 --> 47:57.880
	There's a tricky thing, because if I were to criticize

	47:57.880 --> 48:00.800
	supercruise, it's a little too crude.

	48:00.800 --> 48:03.640
	And I think it's like six seconds or something.

	48:03.640 --> 48:06.080
	If you look off road, it'll start warning you.

	48:06.080 --> 48:09.120
	It's some ridiculously long period of time.

	48:09.120 --> 48:14.120
	And just the way, I think it's basically, it's a binary.

	48:15.840 --> 48:17.440
	It should be adapted.

	48:17.440 --> 48:19.880
	Yeah, it needs to learn more about you.

	48:19.880 --> 48:23.160
	It needs to communicate what it sees about you more.

	48:23.160 --> 48:25.800
	I'm not, you know, Tesla shows what it sees

	48:25.800 --> 48:27.160
	about the external world.

	48:27.160 --> 48:29.120
	It would be nice if supercruise would tell us

	48:29.120 --> 48:30.840
	what it sees about the internal world.

	48:30.840 --> 48:31.960
	It's even worse than that.

	48:31.960 --> 48:33.320
	You press the button to engage

	48:33.320 --> 48:35.480
	and it just says supercruise unavailable.

	48:35.480 --> 48:36.320
	Yeah, why?

	48:36.320 --> 48:37.800
	Why?

	48:37.800 --> 48:41.480
	Yeah, that transparency is good.

	48:41.480 --> 48:43.520
	We've renamed the driver monitoring packet

	48:43.520 --> 48:45.360
	to driver state.

	48:45.360 --> 48:46.280
	Driver state.

	48:46.280 --> 48:48.360
	We have car state packet, which has the state of the car

	48:48.360 --> 48:51.040
	and driver state packet, which has state of the driver.

	48:51.040 --> 48:52.240
	So what is it?

	48:52.240 --> 48:54.080
	Estimate their BAC.

	48:54.080 --> 48:54.920
	What's BAC?

	48:54.920 --> 48:55.920
	Blood alcohol, kind of.

	48:57.360 --> 48:59.240
	You think that's possible with computer vision?

	48:59.240 --> 49:00.080
	Absolutely.

	49:02.560 --> 49:04.520
	It's a, to me, it's an open question.

	49:04.520 --> 49:06.600
	I haven't looked into too much.

	49:06.600 --> 49:08.440
	Actually, I quite seriously looked at the literature.

	49:08.440 --> 49:10.840
	It's not obvious to me that from the eyes and so on,

	49:10.840 --> 49:11.680
	you can tell.

	49:11.680 --> 49:13.440
	You might need stuff from the car as well.

	49:13.440 --> 49:15.760
	You might need how they're controlling the car, right?

	49:15.760 --> 49:17.360
	And that's fundamentally at the end of the day

	49:17.360 --> 49:18.640
	what you care about.

	49:18.640 --> 49:21.640
	But I think, especially when people are really drunk,

	49:21.640 --> 49:23.640
	they're not controlling the car nearly as smoothly

	49:23.640 --> 49:25.160
	as they would look at them walking, right?

	49:25.160 --> 49:27.240
	They're, the car is like an extension of the body.

	49:27.240 --> 49:29.360
	So I think you could totally detect.

	49:29.360 --> 49:30.880
	And if you could fix people who are drunk,

	49:30.880 --> 49:32.840
	distracted, asleep, if you fix those three.

	49:32.840 --> 49:35.480
	Yeah, that's a huge, that's huge.

	49:35.480 --> 49:38.240
	So what are the current limitations of OpenPilot?

	49:38.240 --> 49:41.720
	What are the main problems that still need to be solved?

	49:41.720 --> 49:45.440
	We're hopefully fixing a few of them in zero six.

	49:45.440 --> 49:48.400
	We're not as good as autopilot at stop cars.

	49:49.440 --> 49:54.240
	So if you're coming up to a red light at like 55,

	49:55.200 --> 49:56.880
	so it's the radar stopped car problem,

	49:56.880 --> 49:59.200
	which is responsible for two autopilot accidents,

	49:59.200 --> 50:01.480
	it's hard to differentiate a stopped car

	50:01.480 --> 50:03.640
	from a like signpost.

	50:03.640 --> 50:05.320
	Yeah, static object.

	50:05.320 --> 50:07.520
	So you have to fuse, you have to do this visually.

	50:07.520 --> 50:09.600
	There's no way from the radar data to tell the difference.

	50:09.600 --> 50:10.680
	Maybe you can make a map,

	50:10.680 --> 50:13.840
	but I don't really believe in mapping at all anymore.

	50:13.840 --> 50:14.920
	Wait, wait, wait, what?

	50:14.920 --> 50:16.040
	You don't believe in mapping?

	50:16.040 --> 50:16.880
	No.

	50:16.880 --> 50:21.120
	So you're basically, the OpenPilot solution is saying,

	50:21.120 --> 50:22.480
	react to the environment as you see it,

	50:22.480 --> 50:24.480
	just like human doing beings do.

	50:24.480 --> 50:26.200
	And then eventually when you want to do navigate

	50:26.200 --> 50:30.400
	on OpenPilot, I'll train the net to look at ways.

	50:30.400 --> 50:31.360
	I'll run ways in the background,

	50:31.360 --> 50:32.200
	I'll train and come down a way.

	50:32.200 --> 50:33.560
	Are you using GPS at all?

	50:33.560 --> 50:34.840
	We use it to ground truth.

	50:34.840 --> 50:37.440
	We use it to very carefully ground truth the paths.

	50:37.440 --> 50:39.560
	We have a stack which can recover relative

	50:39.560 --> 50:41.800
	to 10 centimeters over one minute.

	50:41.800 --> 50:43.440
	And then we use that to ground truth

	50:43.440 --> 50:45.880
	exactly where the car went in that local part

	50:45.880 --> 50:47.800
	of the environment, but it's all local.

	50:47.800 --> 50:49.160
	How are you testing in general?

	50:49.160 --> 50:51.400
	Just for yourself, like experiments and stuff.

	50:51.400 --> 50:54.000
	Where are you located?

	50:54.000 --> 50:54.840
	San Diego.

	50:54.840 --> 50:55.680
	San Diego.

	50:55.680 --> 50:56.520
	Yeah.

	50:56.520 --> 50:57.360
	Okay.

	50:57.360 --> 50:59.760
	So you basically drive around there,

	50:59.760 --> 51:02.200
	collect some data and watch the performance?

	51:02.200 --> 51:04.800
	We have a simulator now and we have,

	51:04.800 --> 51:06.440
	our simulator is really cool.

	51:06.440 --> 51:08.120
	Our simulator is not,

	51:08.120 --> 51:09.720
	it's not like a Unity based simulator.

	51:09.720 --> 51:11.840
	Our simulator lets us load in real estate.

	51:12.880 --> 51:13.720
	What do you mean?

	51:13.720 --> 51:16.760
	We can load in a drive and simulate

	51:16.760 --> 51:20.280
	what the system would have done on the historical data.

	51:20.280 --> 51:21.480
	Ooh, nice.

	51:22.520 --> 51:24.360
	Interesting.

	51:24.360 --> 51:26.080
	Right now we're only using it for testing,

	51:26.080 --> 51:28.640
	but as soon as we start using it for training.

	51:28.640 --> 51:29.480
	That's it.

	51:29.480 --> 51:30.840
	That's all set up for us.

	51:30.840 --> 51:33.040
	What's your feeling about the real world versus simulation?

	51:33.040 --> 51:34.320
	Do you like simulation for training?

	51:34.320 --> 51:35.720
	If this moves to training?

	51:35.720 --> 51:40.040
	So we have to distinguish two types of simulators, right?

	51:40.040 --> 51:44.720
	There's a simulator that like is completely fake.

	51:44.720 --> 51:46.720
	I could get my car to drive around in GTA.

	51:47.800 --> 51:51.080
	I feel that this kind of simulator is useless.

	51:51.880 --> 51:53.640
	You're never, there's so many.

	51:54.640 --> 51:57.000
	My analogy here is like, okay, fine.

	51:57.000 --> 51:59.920
	You're not solving the computer vision problem,

	51:59.920 --> 52:02.440
	but you're solving the computer graphics problem.

	52:02.440 --> 52:03.280
	Right.

	52:03.280 --> 52:04.600
	And you don't think you can get very far

	52:04.600 --> 52:08.040
	by creating ultra realistic graphics?

	52:08.040 --> 52:10.360
	No, because you can create ultra realistic graphics

	52:10.360 --> 52:13.160
	or the road, now create ultra realistic behavioral models

	52:13.160 --> 52:14.600
	of the other cars.

	52:14.600 --> 52:16.920
	Oh, well, I'll just use myself driving.

	52:16.920 --> 52:18.280
	No, you won't.

	52:18.280 --> 52:21.640
	You need real, you need actual human behavior

	52:21.640 --> 52:23.320
	because that's what you're trying to learn.

	52:23.320 --> 52:25.840
	The driving does not have a spec.

	52:25.840 --> 52:29.920
	The definition of driving is what humans do when they drive.

	52:29.920 --> 52:32.800
	Whatever Waymo does, I don't think it's driving.

	52:32.800 --> 52:33.640
	Right.

	52:33.640 --> 52:36.400
	Well, I think actually Waymo and others,

	52:36.400 --> 52:38.920
	if there's any use for reinforcement learning,

	52:38.920 --> 52:40.360
	I've seen it used quite well.

	52:40.360 --> 52:41.640
	I studied pedestrians a lot too,

	52:41.640 --> 52:44.360
	is try to train models from real data

	52:44.360 --> 52:46.920
	of how pedestrians move and try to use reinforcement learning

	52:46.920 --> 52:50.040
	models to make pedestrians move in human like ways.

	52:50.040 --> 52:53.520
	By that point, you've already gone so many layers,

	52:53.520 --> 52:55.680
	you detected a pedestrian.

	52:55.680 --> 52:59.640
	Did you hand code the feature vector of their state?

	52:59.640 --> 53:00.480
	Right.

	53:00.480 --> 53:02.880
	Did you guys learn anything from computer vision

	53:02.880 --> 53:04.600
	before deep learning?

	53:04.600 --> 53:07.160
	Well, okay, I feel like this is...

	53:07.160 --> 53:10.840
	So perception to you is the sticking point.

	53:10.840 --> 53:13.760
	I mean, what's the hardest part of the stack here?

	53:13.760 --> 53:18.760
	There is no human understandable feature vector

	53:19.680 --> 53:22.000
	separating perception and planning.

	53:23.040 --> 53:25.120
	That's the best way I can put that.

	53:25.120 --> 53:25.960
	There is no...

	53:25.960 --> 53:29.600
	So it's all together and it's a joint problem.

	53:29.600 --> 53:31.480
	So you can take localization.

	53:31.480 --> 53:32.960
	Localization and planning,

	53:32.960 --> 53:34.760
	there is a human understandable feature vector

	53:34.760 --> 53:36.000
	between these two things.

	53:36.000 --> 53:38.720
	I mean, okay, so I have like three degrees position,

	53:38.720 --> 53:40.560
	three degrees orientation and those derivatives,

	53:40.560 --> 53:42.000
	maybe those second derivatives, right?

	53:42.000 --> 53:44.520
	That's human understandable, that's physical.

	53:44.520 --> 53:48.560
	The between perception and planning.

	53:49.520 --> 53:53.600
	So like Waymo has a perception stack and then a planner.

	53:53.600 --> 53:55.560
	And one of the things Waymo does right

	53:55.560 --> 54:00.000
	is they have a simulator that can separate those two.

	54:00.000 --> 54:02.920
	They can like replay their perception data

	54:02.920 --> 54:03.920
	and test their system,

	54:03.920 --> 54:04.880
	which is what I'm talking about

	54:04.880 --> 54:06.520
	about like the two different kinds of simulators.

	54:06.520 --> 54:08.240
	There's the kind that can work on real data

	54:08.240 --> 54:10.920
	and there's the kind that can't work on real data.

	54:10.920 --> 54:13.880
	Now, the problem is that I don't think

	54:13.880 --> 54:16.160
	you can hand code a feature vector, right?

	54:16.160 --> 54:17.360
	Like you have some list of like,

	54:17.360 --> 54:19.040
	well, here's my list of cars in the scenes.

	54:19.040 --> 54:21.280
	Here's my list of pedestrians in the scene.

	54:21.280 --> 54:23.240
	This isn't what humans are doing.

	54:23.240 --> 54:24.920
	What are humans doing?

	54:24.920 --> 54:25.760
	Global.

	54:27.200 --> 54:28.040
	Some, some.

	54:28.040 --> 54:31.960
	You're saying that's too difficult to hand engineer.

	54:31.960 --> 54:34.120
	I'm saying that there is no state vector.

	54:34.120 --> 54:36.560
	Given a perfect, I could give you the best team

	54:36.560 --> 54:38.520
	of engineers in the world to build a perception system

	54:38.520 --> 54:40.640
	and the best team to build a planner.

	54:40.640 --> 54:42.640
	All you have to do is define the state vector

	54:42.640 --> 54:43.960
	that separates those two.

	54:43.960 --> 54:48.560
	I'm missing the state vector that separates those two.

	54:48.560 --> 54:49.400
	What do you mean?

	54:49.400 --> 54:54.000
	So what is the output of your perception system?

	54:54.000 --> 54:56.880
	Output of the perception system.

	54:56.880 --> 55:01.560
	It's, there's, okay, well, there's several ways to do it.

	55:01.560 --> 55:03.840
	One is the slam component is localization.

	55:03.840 --> 55:05.920
	The other is drivable area, drivable space.

	55:05.920 --> 55:06.760
	Drivable space, yep.

	55:06.760 --> 55:09.000
	And then there's the different objects in the scene.

	55:09.000 --> 55:09.840
	Yep.

	55:11.000 --> 55:16.000
	And different objects in the scene over time maybe

	55:16.000 --> 55:18.720
	to give you input to then try to start

	55:18.720 --> 55:21.560
	modeling the trajectories of those objects.

	55:21.560 --> 55:22.400
	Sure.

	55:22.400 --> 55:23.240
	That's it.

	55:23.240 --> 55:25.160
	I can give you a concrete example of something you missed.

	55:25.160 --> 55:26.000
	What's that?

	55:26.000 --> 55:28.640
	So say there's a bush in the scene.

	55:28.640 --> 55:30.920
	Humans understand that when they see this bush

	55:30.920 --> 55:34.680
	that there may or may not be a car behind that bush.

	55:34.680 --> 55:37.280
	Drivable area and a list of objects does not include that.

	55:37.280 --> 55:38.920
	Humans are doing this constantly

	55:38.920 --> 55:40.920
	at the simplest intersections.

	55:40.920 --> 55:43.880
	So now you have to talk about occluded area.

	55:43.880 --> 55:44.720
	Right.

	55:44.720 --> 55:47.800
	Right, but even that, what do you mean by occluded?

	55:47.800 --> 55:49.640
	Okay, so I can't see it.

	55:49.640 --> 55:51.840
	Well, if it's the other side of a house, I don't care.

	55:51.840 --> 55:53.560
	What's the likelihood that there's a car

	55:53.560 --> 55:55.280
	in that occluded area, right?

	55:55.280 --> 55:58.080
	And if you say, okay, we'll add that,

	55:58.080 --> 56:00.680
	I can come up with 10 more examples that you can't add.

	56:01.680 --> 56:03.960
	Certainly occluded area would be something

	56:03.960 --> 56:06.760
	that simulator would have because it's simulating

	56:06.760 --> 56:11.320
	the entire, you know, occlusion is part of it.

	56:11.320 --> 56:12.680
	Occlusion is part of a vision stack.

	56:12.680 --> 56:13.520
	Vision stack.

	56:13.520 --> 56:16.600
	But what I'm saying is if you have a hand engineered,

	56:16.600 --> 56:20.040
	if your perception system output can be written

	56:20.040 --> 56:22.240
	in a spec document, it is incomplete.

	56:23.120 --> 56:27.800
	Yeah, I mean, I certainly, it's hard to argue with that

	56:27.800 --> 56:30.120
	because in the end, that's going to be true.

	56:30.120 --> 56:31.760
	Yeah, and I'll tell you what the output

	56:31.760 --> 56:32.720
	of our perception system is.

	56:32.720 --> 56:33.560
	What's that?

	56:33.560 --> 56:37.120
	It's a 1024 dimensional vector.

	56:37.120 --> 56:38.000
	Transparent neural net.

	56:38.000 --> 56:39.000
	Oh, you know that.

	56:39.000 --> 56:42.000
	No, that's the 1024 dimensions of who knows what.

	56:43.520 --> 56:45.160
	Because it's operating on real data.

	56:45.160 --> 56:47.000
	Yeah.

	56:47.000 --> 56:48.320
	And that's the perception.

	56:48.320 --> 56:50.360
	That's the perception state, right?

	56:50.360 --> 56:53.520
	Think about an autoencoder for faces, right?

	56:53.520 --> 56:54.720
	If you have an autoencoder for faces

	56:54.720 --> 56:59.720
	and you say it has 256 dimensions in the middle,

	56:59.720 --> 57:00.680
	and I'm taking a face over here

	57:00.680 --> 57:02.800
	and projecting it to a face over here.

	57:02.800 --> 57:05.360
	Can you hand label all 256 of those dimensions?

	57:06.280 --> 57:09.240
	Well, no, but those are generated automatically.

	57:09.240 --> 57:11.360
	But even if you tried to do it by hand,

	57:11.360 --> 57:15.520
	could you come up with a spec between your encoder

	57:15.520 --> 57:16.360
	and your decoder?

	57:17.400 --> 57:20.720
	No, no, because it wasn't designed, but they're...

	57:20.720 --> 57:22.600
	No, no, no, but if you could design it,

	57:23.600 --> 57:26.480
	if you could design a face reconstructor system,

	57:26.480 --> 57:28.080
	could you come up with a spec?

	57:29.240 --> 57:32.320
	No, but I think we're missing here a little bit.

	57:32.320 --> 57:35.080
	I think you're just being very poetic

	57:35.080 --> 57:37.880
	about expressing a fundamental problem of simulators,

	57:37.880 --> 57:41.640
	that they are going to be missing so much

	57:42.480 --> 57:44.680
	that the feature of actually

	57:44.680 --> 57:47.080
	would just look fundamentally different

	57:47.080 --> 57:50.440
	from in the simulated world than the real world.

	57:51.280 --> 57:53.800
	I'm not making a claim about simulators.

	57:53.800 --> 57:57.120
	I'm making a claim about the spec division

	57:57.120 --> 57:58.800
	between perception and planning.

	57:58.800 --> 57:59.640
	And planning.

	57:59.640 --> 58:00.840
	Even in your system.

	58:00.840 --> 58:01.800
	Just in general.

	58:01.800 --> 58:03.360
	Right, just in general.

	58:03.360 --> 58:05.680
	If you're trying to build a car that drives,

	58:05.680 --> 58:07.280
	if you're trying to hand code

	58:07.280 --> 58:08.760
	the output of your perception system,

	58:08.760 --> 58:10.960
	like saying, here's a list of all the cars in the scene.

	58:10.960 --> 58:11.920
	Here's a list of all the people.

	58:11.920 --> 58:13.120
	Here's a list of the occluded areas.

	58:13.120 --> 58:14.920
	Here's a vector of drivable areas.

	58:14.920 --> 58:16.600
	It's insufficient.

	58:16.600 --> 58:18.000
	And if you start to believe that,

	58:18.000 --> 58:20.840
	you realize that what Waymo and Cruz are doing is impossible.

	58:20.840 --> 58:24.320
	Currently, what we're doing is the perception problem

	58:24.320 --> 58:28.200
	is converting the scene into a chessboard.

	58:29.200 --> 58:31.720
	And then you reason some basic reasoning

	58:31.720 --> 58:33.400
	around that chessboard.

	58:33.400 --> 58:38.080
	And you're saying that really there's a lot missing there.

	58:38.080 --> 58:40.240
	First of all, why are we talking about this?

	58:40.240 --> 58:42.840
	Because isn't this a full autonomy?

	58:42.840 --> 58:44.720
	Is this something you think about?

	58:44.720 --> 58:47.680
	Oh, I want to win self driving cars.

	58:47.680 --> 58:52.680
	So your definition of win includes the full five.

	58:53.680 --> 58:55.800
	I don't think level four is a real thing.

	58:55.800 --> 58:59.720
	I want to build the AlphaGo of driving.

	58:59.720 --> 59:04.720
	So AlphaGo is really end to end.

	59:06.160 --> 59:07.000
	Yeah.

	59:07.000 --> 59:09.840
	Is, yeah, it's end to end.

	59:09.840 --> 59:12.480
	And do you think this whole problem,

	59:12.480 --> 59:14.680
	is that also kind of what you're getting at

	59:14.680 --> 59:16.640
	with the perception and the planning?

	59:16.640 --> 59:19.440
	Is that this whole problem, the right way to do it,

	59:19.440 --> 59:21.600
	is really to learn the entire thing?

	59:21.600 --> 59:23.680
	I'll argue that not only is it the right way,

	59:23.680 --> 59:27.640
	it's the only way that's going to exceed human performance.

	59:27.640 --> 59:29.960
	Well, it's certainly true for Go.

	59:29.960 --> 59:31.520
	Everyone who tried to hand code Go things

	59:31.520 --> 59:33.440
	built human inferior things.

	59:33.440 --> 59:36.200
	And then someone came along and wrote some 10,000 line thing

	59:36.200 --> 59:39.800
	that doesn't know anything about Go that beat everybody.

	59:39.800 --> 59:41.080
	It's 10,000 lines.

	59:41.080 --> 59:43.360
	True, in that sense.

	59:43.360 --> 59:47.520
	The open question then that maybe I can ask you

	59:47.520 --> 59:52.520
	is driving is much harder than Go.

	59:53.440 --> 59:56.240
	The open question is how much harder?

	59:56.240 --> 59:59.480
	So how, because I think the Elon Musk approach here

	59:59.480 --> 1:00:01.600
	with planning and perception is similar

	1:00:01.600 --> 1:00:02.960
	to what you're describing,

	1:00:02.960 --> 1:00:07.960
	which is really turning into not some kind of modular thing,

	1:00:08.280 --> 1:00:11.120
	but really do formulate as a learning problem

	1:00:11.120 --> 1:00:13.360
	and solve the learning problem with scale.

	1:00:13.360 --> 1:00:17.120
	So how many years, put one,

	1:00:17.120 --> 1:00:18.880
	how many years would it take to solve this problem

	1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:21.680
	or just how hard is this freaking problem?

	1:00:21.680 --> 1:00:24.560
	Well, the cool thing is,

	1:00:24.560 --> 1:00:27.800
	I think there's a lot of value

	1:00:27.800 --> 1:00:29.840
	that we can deliver along the way.

	1:00:30.840 --> 1:00:35.840
	I think that you can build lame keeping assist

	1:00:36.600 --> 1:00:41.440
	actually plus adaptive cruise control plus, okay,

	1:00:41.440 --> 1:00:46.000
	looking at ways extends to like all of driving.

	1:00:46.000 --> 1:00:47.920
	Yeah, most of driving, right?

	1:00:47.920 --> 1:00:49.760
	Oh, your adaptive cruise control treats red lights

	1:00:49.760 --> 1:00:51.200
	like cars, okay.

	1:00:51.200 --> 1:00:53.480
	So let's jump around with you mentioned

	1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:55.760
	that you didn't like navigate an autopilot.

	1:00:55.760 --> 1:00:57.760
	What advice, how would you make it better?

	1:00:57.760 --> 1:01:00.560
	Do you think as a feature that if it's done really well,

	1:01:00.560 --> 1:01:02.360
	it's a good feature?

	1:01:02.360 --> 1:01:07.360
	I think that it's too reliant on like hand coded hacks

	1:01:07.520 --> 1:01:10.400
	for like, how does navigate an autopilot do a lane change?

	1:01:10.400 --> 1:01:13.400
	It actually does the same lane change every time

	1:01:13.400 --> 1:01:14.320
	and it feels mechanical.

	1:01:14.320 --> 1:01:15.920
	Humans do different lane changes.

	1:01:15.920 --> 1:01:17.360
	Humans, sometimes we'll do a slow one,

	1:01:17.360 --> 1:01:18.920
	sometimes do a fast one.

	1:01:18.920 --> 1:01:20.880
	Navigate an autopilot at least every time I use it

	1:01:20.880 --> 1:01:23.040
	is it the identical lane change?

	1:01:23.040 --> 1:01:24.280
	How do you learn?

	1:01:24.280 --> 1:01:26.800
	I mean, this is a fundamental thing actually

	1:01:26.800 --> 1:01:30.400
	is the breaking and accelerating,

	1:01:30.400 --> 1:01:33.960
	something that still, Tesla probably does it better

	1:01:33.960 --> 1:01:36.800
	than most cars, but it still doesn't do a great job

	1:01:36.800 --> 1:01:39.960
	of creating a comfortable natural experience

	1:01:39.960 --> 1:01:42.680
	and navigate an autopilot is just lane changes

	1:01:42.680 --> 1:01:44.120
	and extension of that.

	1:01:44.120 --> 1:01:49.120
	So how do you learn to do natural lane change?

	1:01:49.120 --> 1:01:52.920
	So we have it and I can talk about how it works.

	1:01:52.920 --> 1:01:57.920
	So I feel that we have the solution for lateral

	1:01:58.720 --> 1:02:00.640
	but we don't yet have the solution for longitudinal.

	1:02:00.640 --> 1:02:03.360
	There's a few reasons longitudinal is harder than lateral.

	1:02:03.360 --> 1:02:06.920
	The lane change component, the way that we train on it

	1:02:06.920 --> 1:02:10.840
	very simply is like our model has an input

	1:02:10.840 --> 1:02:14.040
	for whether it's doing a lane change or not.

	1:02:14.040 --> 1:02:16.360
	And then when we train the end to end model,

	1:02:16.360 --> 1:02:19.560
	we hand label all the lane changes because you have to.

	1:02:19.560 --> 1:02:22.440
	I've struggled a long time about not wanting to do that

	1:02:22.440 --> 1:02:24.280
	but I think you have to.

	1:02:24.280 --> 1:02:25.320
	Or the training data.

	1:02:25.320 --> 1:02:26.520
	For the training data, right?

	1:02:26.520 --> 1:02:28.280
	We actually have an automatic ground truth

	1:02:28.280 --> 1:02:30.600
	or which automatically labels all the lane changes.

	1:02:30.600 --> 1:02:31.680
	Was that possible?

	1:02:31.680 --> 1:02:32.720
	To automatically label lane changes?

	1:02:32.720 --> 1:02:33.560
	Yeah.

	1:02:33.560 --> 1:02:34.800
	And detect the lane I see when it crosses it, right?

	1:02:34.800 --> 1:02:36.680
	And I don't have to get that high percent accuracy

	1:02:36.680 --> 1:02:38.080
	but it's like 95 good enough.

	1:02:38.080 --> 1:02:38.960
	Okay.

	1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:43.200
	Now I set the bit when it's doing the lane change

	1:02:43.200 --> 1:02:44.840
	in the end to end learning.

	1:02:44.840 --> 1:02:47.920
	And then I set it to zero when it's not doing a lane change.

	1:02:47.920 --> 1:02:49.720
	So now if I want us to do a lane change a test time,

	1:02:49.720 --> 1:02:52.360
	I just put the bit to a one and it'll do a lane change.

	1:02:52.360 --> 1:02:54.640
	Yeah, but so if you look at the space of lane change,

	1:02:54.640 --> 1:02:57.320
	you know some percentage, not a hundred percent,

	1:02:57.320 --> 1:03:01.120
	that we make as humans is not a pleasant experience

	1:03:01.120 --> 1:03:02.800
	because we messed some part of it up.

	1:03:02.800 --> 1:03:04.320
	It's nerve wracking to change.

	1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:05.760
	If you look, you have to see,

	1:03:05.760 --> 1:03:06.920
	it has to accelerate.

	1:03:06.920 --> 1:03:09.920
	How do we label the ones that are natural and feel good?

	1:03:09.920 --> 1:03:11.560
	You know, that's the,

	1:03:11.560 --> 1:03:13.360
	because that's your ultimate criticism,

	1:03:13.360 --> 1:03:17.000
	the current navigate and autopilot just doesn't feel good.

	1:03:17.000 --> 1:03:18.520
	Well, the current navigate and autopilot

	1:03:18.520 --> 1:03:21.720
	is a hand coded policy written by an engineer in a room

	1:03:21.720 --> 1:03:25.080
	who probably went out and tested it a few times on the 280.

	1:03:25.080 --> 1:03:28.560
	Probably a more, a better version of that.

	1:03:28.560 --> 1:03:29.400
	But yes.

	1:03:29.400 --> 1:03:30.560
	That's how we would have written it.

	1:03:30.560 --> 1:03:31.400
	Yeah.

	1:03:31.400 --> 1:03:33.480
	Maybe Tesla did a Tesla, they tested it in.

	1:03:33.480 --> 1:03:34.920
	That might have been two engineers.

	1:03:34.920 --> 1:03:35.760
	Two engineers.

	1:03:35.760 --> 1:03:37.400
	Yeah.

	1:03:37.400 --> 1:03:40.120
	No, but so if you learn the lane change,

	1:03:40.120 --> 1:03:42.480
	if you learn how to do a lane change from data,

	1:03:42.480 --> 1:03:44.680
	just like you have a label that says lane change

	1:03:44.680 --> 1:03:48.040
	and then you put it in when you want it to do the lane change,

	1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:49.640
	it'll automatically do the lane change

	1:03:49.640 --> 1:03:51.600
	that's appropriate for the situation.

	1:03:51.600 --> 1:03:54.720
	Now, to get at the problem of some humans

	1:03:54.720 --> 1:03:55.960
	do bad lane changes,

	1:03:57.400 --> 1:03:59.920
	we haven't worked too much on this problem yet.

	1:03:59.920 --> 1:04:03.120
	It's not that much of a problem in practice.

	1:04:03.120 --> 1:04:06.160
	My theory is that all good drivers are good in the same way

	1:04:06.160 --> 1:04:08.440
	and all bad drivers are bad in different ways.

	1:04:09.360 --> 1:04:11.320
	And we've seen some data to back this up.

	1:04:11.320 --> 1:04:12.400
	Well, beautifully put.

	1:04:12.400 --> 1:04:16.560
	So you just basically, if that's true hypothesis,

	1:04:16.560 --> 1:04:19.920
	then your task is to discover the good drivers.

	1:04:19.920 --> 1:04:21.800
	The good drivers stand out

	1:04:21.800 --> 1:04:23.360
	because they're in one cluster

	1:04:23.360 --> 1:04:25.200
	and the bad drivers are scattered all over the place

	1:04:25.200 --> 1:04:27.240
	and your net learns the cluster.

	1:04:27.240 --> 1:04:28.080
	Yeah.

	1:04:28.080 --> 1:04:30.800
	So you just learn from the good drivers

	1:04:30.800 --> 1:04:32.200
	and they're easy to cluster.

	1:04:33.200 --> 1:04:34.240
	In fact, we learned from all of them

	1:04:34.240 --> 1:04:35.840
	and the net automatically learns the policy

	1:04:35.840 --> 1:04:36.920
	that's like the majority.

	1:04:36.920 --> 1:04:38.440
	But we'll eventually probably have to build some out.

	1:04:38.440 --> 1:04:41.560
	So if that theory is true, I hope it's true

	1:04:41.560 --> 1:04:46.440
	because the counter theory is there is many clusters,

	1:04:49.480 --> 1:04:53.680
	maybe arbitrarily many clusters of good drivers.

	1:04:53.680 --> 1:04:55.840
	Because if there's one cluster of good drivers,

	1:04:55.840 --> 1:04:57.600
	you can at least discover a set of policies.

	1:04:57.600 --> 1:04:59.000
	You can learn a set of policies

	1:04:59.000 --> 1:05:00.640
	which would be good universally.

	1:05:00.640 --> 1:05:01.640
	Yeah.

	1:05:01.640 --> 1:05:04.560
	That would be nice if it's true.

	1:05:04.560 --> 1:05:06.560
	And you're saying that there is some evidence that...

	1:05:06.560 --> 1:05:09.720
	Let's say lane changes can be clustered into four clusters.

	1:05:09.720 --> 1:05:10.560
	Right.

	1:05:10.560 --> 1:05:12.040
	There's a finite level of...

	1:05:12.040 --> 1:05:15.280
	I would argue that all four of those are good clusters.

	1:05:15.280 --> 1:05:18.360
	All the things that are random are noise and probably bad.

	1:05:18.360 --> 1:05:20.360
	And which one of the four you pick?

	1:05:20.360 --> 1:05:21.920
	Or maybe it's 10 or maybe it's 20.

	1:05:21.920 --> 1:05:22.760
	You can learn that.

	1:05:22.760 --> 1:05:23.800
	It's context dependent.

	1:05:23.800 --> 1:05:25.040
	It depends on the scene.

	1:05:26.760 --> 1:05:30.440
	And the hope is it's not too dependent on the driver.

	1:05:31.400 --> 1:05:34.240
	Yeah, the hope is that it all washes out.

	1:05:34.240 --> 1:05:36.960
	The hope is that the distribution is not bimodal.

	1:05:36.960 --> 1:05:39.080
	The hope is that it's a nice Gaussian.

	1:05:39.080 --> 1:05:41.640
	So what advice would you give to Tesla?

	1:05:41.640 --> 1:05:45.000
	How to fix, how to improve, navigate an autopilot?

	1:05:45.000 --> 1:05:48.240
	That's the lessons that you've learned from Kamii.

	1:05:48.240 --> 1:05:50.560
	The only real advice I would give to Tesla

	1:05:50.560 --> 1:05:52.920
	is please put driver monitoring in your cars.

	1:05:53.920 --> 1:05:55.160
	With respect to improving it.

	1:05:55.160 --> 1:05:56.000
	You can't do that anymore.

	1:05:56.000 --> 1:05:57.280
	I started to interrupt.

	1:05:57.280 --> 1:06:01.760
	But there's a practical nature of many of hundreds of thousands

	1:06:01.760 --> 1:06:05.760
	of cars being produced that don't have a good driver facing camera.

	1:06:05.760 --> 1:06:07.520
	The Model 3 has a selfie cam.

	1:06:07.520 --> 1:06:08.680
	Is it not good enough?

	1:06:08.680 --> 1:06:10.800
	Did they not have put IR LEDs for night?

	1:06:10.800 --> 1:06:11.640
	That's a good question.

	1:06:11.640 --> 1:06:13.360
	But I do know that it's fish eye

	1:06:13.360 --> 1:06:15.800
	and it's relatively low resolution.

	1:06:15.800 --> 1:06:16.760
	So it's really not designed.

	1:06:16.760 --> 1:06:18.760
	It wasn't designed for driver monitoring.

	1:06:18.760 --> 1:06:21.760
	You can hope that you can kind of scrape up

	1:06:21.760 --> 1:06:24.400
	and have something from it.

	1:06:24.400 --> 1:06:27.520
	But why didn't they put it in today?

	1:06:27.520 --> 1:06:28.280
	Put it in today.

	1:06:28.280 --> 1:06:29.520
	Put it in today.

	1:06:29.520 --> 1:06:31.520
	Every time I've heard Carpathian talk about the problem

	1:06:31.520 --> 1:06:33.240
	and talking about like software 2.0

	1:06:33.240 --> 1:06:35.240
	and how the machine learning is gobbling up everything,

	1:06:35.240 --> 1:06:37.440
	I think this is absolutely the right strategy.

	1:06:37.440 --> 1:06:40.160
	I think that he didn't write and navigate on autopilot.

	1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.240
	I think somebody else did and kind of hacked it on top of that stuff.

	1:06:43.240 --> 1:06:45.680
	I think when Carpathian says, wait a second,

	1:06:45.680 --> 1:06:47.440
	why did we hand code this lane change policy

	1:06:47.440 --> 1:06:48.360
	with all these magic numbers?

	1:06:48.360 --> 1:06:49.360
	We're going to learn it from data.

	1:06:49.360 --> 1:06:49.840
	They'll fix it.

	1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:51.040
	They already know what to do there.

	1:06:51.040 --> 1:06:54.360
	Well, that's Andre's job is to turn everything

	1:06:54.360 --> 1:06:57.480
	into a learning problem and collect a huge amount of data.

	1:06:57.480 --> 1:07:01.120
	The reality is, though, not every problem

	1:07:01.120 --> 1:07:04.080
	can be turned into a learning problem in the short term.

	1:07:04.080 --> 1:07:07.280
	In the end, everything will be a learning problem.

	1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:12.880
	The reality is, like if you want to build L5 vehicles today,

	1:07:12.880 --> 1:07:15.600
	it will likely involve no learning.

	1:07:15.600 --> 1:07:20.320
	And that's the reality is, so at which point does learning start?

	1:07:20.320 --> 1:07:23.480
	It's the crutch statement that LiDAR is a crutch.

	1:07:23.480 --> 1:07:27.240
	Which point will learning get up to part of human performance?

	1:07:27.240 --> 1:07:31.960
	It's over human performance on ImageNet, classification,

	1:07:31.960 --> 1:07:34.000
	on driving, it's a question still.

	1:07:34.000 --> 1:07:35.760
	It is a question.

	1:07:35.760 --> 1:07:39.160
	I'll say this, I'm here to play for 10 years.

	1:07:39.160 --> 1:07:40.280
	I'm not here to try to.

	1:07:40.280 --> 1:07:42.960
	I'm here to play for 10 years and make money along the way.

	1:07:42.960 --> 1:07:45.040
	I'm not here to try to promise people

	1:07:45.040 --> 1:07:47.600
	that I'm going to have my L5 taxi network up and working

	1:07:47.600 --> 1:07:48.200
	in two years.

	1:07:48.200 --> 1:07:49.400
	Do you think that was a mistake?

	1:07:49.400 --> 1:07:50.520
	Yes.

	1:07:50.520 --> 1:07:53.160
	What do you think was the motivation behind saying

	1:07:53.160 --> 1:07:56.640
	that other companies are also promising L5 vehicles

	1:07:56.640 --> 1:08:01.880
	with their different approaches in 2020, 2021, 2022?

	1:08:01.880 --> 1:08:05.720
	If anybody would like to bet me that those things do not pan out,

	1:08:05.720 --> 1:08:07.000
	I will bet you.

	1:08:07.000 --> 1:08:10.800
	Even money, even money, I'll bet you as much as you want.

	1:08:10.800 --> 1:08:13.600
	So are you worried about what's going to happen?

	1:08:13.600 --> 1:08:16.040
	Because you're not in full agreement on that.

	1:08:16.040 --> 1:08:19.160
	What's going to happen when 2022, 2021 come around

	1:08:19.160 --> 1:08:22.800
	and nobody has fleets of autonomous vehicles?

	1:08:22.800 --> 1:08:25.000
	Well, you can look at the history.

	1:08:25.000 --> 1:08:26.880
	If you go back five years ago, they

	1:08:26.880 --> 1:08:29.880
	were all promised by 2018 and 2017.

	1:08:29.880 --> 1:08:32.200
	But they weren't that strong of promises.

	1:08:32.200 --> 1:08:36.240
	I mean, Ford really declared.

	1:08:36.240 --> 1:08:40.560
	I think not many have declared as definitively

	1:08:40.560 --> 1:08:42.600
	as they have now these dates.

	1:08:42.600 --> 1:08:43.320
	Well, OK.

	1:08:43.320 --> 1:08:45.040
	So let's separate L4 and L5.

	1:08:45.040 --> 1:08:46.800
	Do I think that it's possible for Waymo

	1:08:46.800 --> 1:08:50.960
	to continue to hack on their system

	1:08:50.960 --> 1:08:53.400
	until it gets to level four in Chandler, Arizona?

	1:08:53.400 --> 1:08:55.040
	Yes.

	1:08:55.040 --> 1:08:56.800
	No safety driver?

	1:08:56.800 --> 1:08:57.600
	Chandler, Arizona?

	1:08:57.600 --> 1:08:59.600
	Yeah.

	1:08:59.600 --> 1:09:02.440
	By which year are we talking about?

	1:09:02.440 --> 1:09:06.120
	Oh, I even think that's possible by like 2020, 2021.

	1:09:06.120 --> 1:09:09.480
	But level four, Chandler, Arizona, not level five,

	1:09:09.480 --> 1:09:11.480
	New York City.

	1:09:11.480 --> 1:09:15.920
	Level four, meaning some very defined streets.

	1:09:15.920 --> 1:09:17.400
	It works out really well.

	1:09:17.400 --> 1:09:18.280
	Very defined streets.

	1:09:18.280 --> 1:09:20.680
	And then practically, these streets are pretty empty.

	1:09:20.680 --> 1:09:24.680
	If most of the streets are covered in Waymos,

	1:09:24.680 --> 1:09:28.360
	Waymo can kind of change the definition of what driving is.

	1:09:28.360 --> 1:09:28.920
	Right?

	1:09:28.920 --> 1:09:31.720
	If your self driving network is the majority

	1:09:31.720 --> 1:09:34.120
	of cars in an area, they only need

	1:09:34.120 --> 1:09:35.720
	to be safe with respect to each other,

	1:09:35.720 --> 1:09:38.640
	and all the humans will need to learn to adapt to them.

	1:09:38.640 --> 1:09:41.120
	Now go drive in downtown New York.

	1:09:41.120 --> 1:09:42.200
	Oh, yeah, that's.

	1:09:42.200 --> 1:09:43.440
	I mean, already.

	1:09:43.440 --> 1:09:46.040
	You can talk about autonomy and like on farms,

	1:09:46.040 --> 1:09:48.520
	it already works great, because you can really just

	1:09:48.520 --> 1:09:51.320
	follow the GPS line.

	1:09:51.320 --> 1:09:56.800
	So what does success look like for Kama AI?

	1:09:56.800 --> 1:09:58.200
	What are the milestones like where

	1:09:58.200 --> 1:09:59.800
	you can sit back with some champagne

	1:09:59.800 --> 1:10:04.120
	and say, we did it, boys and girls?

	1:10:04.120 --> 1:10:06.320
	Well, it's never over.

	1:10:06.320 --> 1:10:07.800
	Yeah, but don't be so.

	1:10:07.800 --> 1:10:10.400
	You must drink champagne every time you celebrate.

	1:10:10.400 --> 1:10:11.440
	So what is good?

	1:10:11.440 --> 1:10:13.160
	What are some wins?

	1:10:13.160 --> 1:10:19.480
	A big milestone that we're hoping for by mid next year

	1:10:19.480 --> 1:10:20.680
	is profitability of the company.

	1:10:20.680 --> 1:10:28.560
	And we're going to have to revisit the idea of selling

	1:10:28.560 --> 1:10:30.280
	a consumer product.

	1:10:30.280 --> 1:10:32.720
	But it's not going to be like the Kama One.

	1:10:32.720 --> 1:10:36.240
	When we do it, it's going to be perfect.

	1:10:36.240 --> 1:10:39.600
	OpenPilot has gotten so much better in the last two years.

	1:10:39.600 --> 1:10:41.680
	We're going to have a few features.

	1:10:41.680 --> 1:10:43.760
	We're going to have 100% driver monitoring.

	1:10:43.760 --> 1:10:46.720
	We're going to disable no safety features in the car.

	1:10:46.720 --> 1:10:48.760
	Actually, I think it'd be really cool what we're doing right

	1:10:48.760 --> 1:10:51.600
	now, our project this week is we're analyzing the data set

	1:10:51.600 --> 1:10:53.240
	and looking for all the AEB triggers

	1:10:53.240 --> 1:10:55.640
	from the manufacturer systems.

	1:10:55.640 --> 1:10:59.440
	We have better data set on that than the manufacturers.

	1:10:59.440 --> 1:11:02.960
	How much does Toyota have 10 million miles of real world

	1:11:02.960 --> 1:11:05.360
	driving to know how many times they're AEB triggered?

	1:11:05.360 --> 1:11:10.880
	So let me give you, because you asked, financial advice.

	1:11:10.880 --> 1:11:12.440
	Because I work with a lot of automakers

	1:11:12.440 --> 1:11:15.840
	and one possible source of money for you,

	1:11:15.840 --> 1:11:21.400
	which I'll be excited to see you take on, is basically

	1:11:21.400 --> 1:11:29.120
	selling the data, which is something that most people,

	1:11:29.120 --> 1:11:31.800
	and not selling in a way where here, here at Automaker,

	1:11:31.800 --> 1:11:33.000
	but creating.

	1:11:33.000 --> 1:11:35.480
	We've done this actually at MIT, not for money purposes,

	1:11:35.480 --> 1:11:37.760
	but you could do it for significant money purposes

	1:11:37.760 --> 1:11:39.440
	and make the world a better place

	1:11:39.440 --> 1:11:44.240
	by creating a consortia where automakers would pay in

	1:11:44.240 --> 1:11:46.960
	and then they get to have free access to the data.

	1:11:46.960 --> 1:11:52.400
	And I think a lot of people are really hungry for that

	1:11:52.400 --> 1:11:54.200
	and would pay significant amount of money for it.

	1:11:54.200 --> 1:11:55.400
	Here's the problem with that.

	1:11:55.400 --> 1:11:56.840
	I like this idea all in theory.

	1:11:56.840 --> 1:11:59.640
	It'd be very easy for me to give them access to my servers.

	1:11:59.640 --> 1:12:02.280
	And we already have all open source tools to access this data.

	1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:03.400
	It's in a great format.

	1:12:03.400 --> 1:12:05.560
	We have a great pipeline.

	1:12:05.560 --> 1:12:07.120
	But they're going to put me in the room

	1:12:07.120 --> 1:12:10.120
	with some business development guy.

	1:12:10.120 --> 1:12:12.400
	And I'm going to have to talk to this guy.

	1:12:12.400 --> 1:12:15.040
	And he's not going to know most of the words I'm saying.

	1:12:15.040 --> 1:12:17.280
	I'm not willing to tolerate that.

	1:12:17.280 --> 1:12:18.840
	OK, Mick Jagger.

	1:12:18.840 --> 1:12:19.800
	No, no, no, no.

	1:12:19.800 --> 1:12:21.040
	But I think I agree with you.

	1:12:21.040 --> 1:12:21.720
	I'm the same way.

	1:12:21.720 --> 1:12:22.960
	But you just tell them the terms

	1:12:22.960 --> 1:12:24.640
	and there's no discussion needed.

	1:12:24.640 --> 1:12:30.480
	If I could just tell them the terms, then like, all right.

	1:12:30.480 --> 1:12:31.600
	Who wants access to my data?

	1:12:31.600 --> 1:12:36.680
	I will sell it to you for, let's say,

	1:12:36.680 --> 1:12:37.640
	you want a subscription?

	1:12:37.640 --> 1:12:40.680
	I'll sell you for 100k a month.

	1:12:40.680 --> 1:12:41.200
	Anyone?

	1:12:41.200 --> 1:12:42.000
	100k a month?

	1:12:42.000 --> 1:12:43.040
	100k a month?

	1:12:43.040 --> 1:12:45.080
	I'll give you access to the data subscription?

	1:12:45.080 --> 1:12:45.680
	Yeah.

	1:12:45.680 --> 1:12:46.680
	Yeah, I think that's kind of fair.

	1:12:46.680 --> 1:12:48.440
	Came up with that number off the top of my head.

	1:12:48.440 --> 1:12:50.840
	If somebody sends me like a three line email where it's like,

	1:12:50.840 --> 1:12:54.000
	we would like to pay 100k a month to get access to your data.

	1:12:54.000 --> 1:12:56.160
	We would agree to like reasonable privacy terms

	1:12:56.160 --> 1:12:58.360
	of the people who are in the data set.

	1:12:58.360 --> 1:12:59.520
	I would be happy to do it.

	1:12:59.520 --> 1:13:01.200
	But that's not going to be the email.

	1:13:01.200 --> 1:13:03.120
	The email is going to be, hey, do you

	1:13:03.120 --> 1:13:05.560
	have some time in the next month where we can sit down

	1:13:05.560 --> 1:13:07.000
	and we can, I don't have time for that.

	1:13:07.000 --> 1:13:08.360
	We're moving too fast.

	1:13:08.360 --> 1:13:10.040
	You could politely respond to that email,

	1:13:10.040 --> 1:13:13.240
	but not saying I don't have any time for your bullshit.

	1:13:13.240 --> 1:13:15.440
	You say, oh, well, unfortunately, these are the terms.

	1:13:15.440 --> 1:13:19.280
	And so this is what we try to, we brought the cost down

	1:13:19.280 --> 1:13:22.320
	for you in order to minimize the friction, the communication.

	1:13:22.320 --> 1:13:22.920
	Yeah, absolutely.

	1:13:22.920 --> 1:13:26.720
	Here's the whatever it is, $1, $2 million a year.

	1:13:26.720 --> 1:13:28.880
	And you have access.

	1:13:28.880 --> 1:13:31.440
	And it's not like I get that email from like,

	1:13:31.440 --> 1:13:32.720
	but OK, am I going to reach out?

	1:13:32.720 --> 1:13:34.200
	Am I going to hire a business development person

	1:13:34.200 --> 1:13:35.840
	who's going to reach out to the automakers?

	1:13:35.840 --> 1:13:36.480
	No way.

	1:13:36.480 --> 1:13:36.880
	Yeah.

	1:13:36.880 --> 1:13:37.840
	OK, I got you.

	1:13:37.840 --> 1:13:38.520
	I admire.

	1:13:38.520 --> 1:13:39.680
	If they reached into me, I'm not

	1:13:39.680 --> 1:13:40.600
	going to ignore the email.

	1:13:40.600 --> 1:13:42.160
	I'll come back with something like, yeah,

	1:13:42.160 --> 1:13:44.560
	if you're willing to pay $100,000 for access to the data,

	1:13:44.560 --> 1:13:46.080
	I'm happy to set that up.

	1:13:46.080 --> 1:13:48.200
	That's worth my engineering time.

	1:13:48.200 --> 1:13:49.520
	That's actually quite insightful of you.

	1:13:49.520 --> 1:13:50.440
	You're right.

	1:13:50.440 --> 1:13:52.480
	Probably because many of the automakers

	1:13:52.480 --> 1:13:54.480
	are quite a bit old school, there

	1:13:54.480 --> 1:13:56.200
	will be a need to reach out.

	1:13:56.200 --> 1:13:58.440
	And they want it, but there will need

	1:13:58.440 --> 1:13:59.800
	to be some communication.

	1:13:59.800 --> 1:14:00.160
	You're right.

	1:14:00.160 --> 1:14:06.760
	Mobileye circa 2015 had the lowest R&D spend of any chipmaker.

	1:14:06.760 --> 1:14:10.640
	Like per, and you look at all the people who work for them,

	1:14:10.640 --> 1:14:12.120
	and it's all business development people

	1:14:12.120 --> 1:14:15.320
	because the car companies are impossible to work with.

	1:14:15.320 --> 1:14:17.880
	Yeah, so you have no patience for that,

	1:14:17.880 --> 1:14:20.040
	and you're a legit Android, huh?

	1:14:20.040 --> 1:14:21.440
	I have something to do, right?

	1:14:21.440 --> 1:14:24.040
	Like, it's not like I don't mean to be a dick and say,

	1:14:24.040 --> 1:14:25.920
	I don't have patience for that, but it's like,

	1:14:25.920 --> 1:14:29.160
	that stuff doesn't help us with our goal of winning

	1:14:29.160 --> 1:14:30.560
	self driving cars.

	1:14:30.560 --> 1:14:33.800
	If I want money in the short term,

	1:14:33.800 --> 1:14:38.040
	if I showed off the actual learning tech that we have,

	1:14:38.040 --> 1:14:40.160
	it's somewhat sad.

	1:14:40.160 --> 1:14:43.000
	It's years and years ahead of everybody else's.

	1:14:43.000 --> 1:14:43.720
	Maybe not Tesla's.

	1:14:43.720 --> 1:14:45.720
	I think Tesla has similar stuff to us, actually.

	1:14:45.720 --> 1:14:47.640
	I think Tesla has similar stuff, but when you compare it

	1:14:47.640 --> 1:14:50.920
	to what the Toyota Research Institute has,

	1:14:50.920 --> 1:14:53.480
	you're not even close to what we have.

	1:14:53.480 --> 1:14:55.840
	No comments, but I also can't.

	1:14:55.840 --> 1:14:58.440
	I have to take your comments.

	1:14:58.440 --> 1:15:01.960
	I intuitively believe you, but I have

	1:15:01.960 --> 1:15:04.680
	to take it with a grain of salt because,

	1:15:04.680 --> 1:15:07.440
	I mean, you are an inspiration because you basically

	1:15:07.440 --> 1:15:10.000
	don't care about a lot of things that other companies care

	1:15:10.000 --> 1:15:10.880
	about.

	1:15:10.880 --> 1:15:16.600
	You don't try to bullshit, in a sense, like make up stuff,

	1:15:16.600 --> 1:15:18.600
	so to drive up valuation.

	1:15:18.600 --> 1:15:19.960
	You're really very real, and you're

	1:15:19.960 --> 1:15:22.280
	trying to solve the problem, and I admire that a lot.

	1:15:22.280 --> 1:15:26.520
	What I don't necessarily fully can't trust you on about your

	1:15:26.520 --> 1:15:28.440
	respect is how good it is, right?

	1:15:28.440 --> 1:15:33.320
	I can only, but I also know how bad others are.

	1:15:33.320 --> 1:15:36.680
	I'll say two things about, trust, but verify, right?

	1:15:36.680 --> 1:15:38.040
	I'll say two things about that.

	1:15:38.040 --> 1:15:42.360
	One is try, get in a 2020 Corolla,

	1:15:42.360 --> 1:15:46.680
	and try OpenPilot 0.6 when it comes out next month.

	1:15:46.680 --> 1:15:48.400
	I think already, you'll look at this,

	1:15:48.400 --> 1:15:51.400
	and you'll be like, this is already really good.

	1:15:51.400 --> 1:15:54.240
	And then, I could be doing that all with hand labelers

	1:15:54.240 --> 1:15:58.000
	and all with the same approach that Mobileye uses.

	1:15:58.000 --> 1:16:00.040
	When we release a model that no longer

	1:16:00.040 --> 1:16:05.000
	has the lanes in it, that only outputs a path,

	1:16:05.000 --> 1:16:08.720
	then think about how we did that machine learning,

	1:16:08.720 --> 1:16:10.080
	and then right away, when you see,

	1:16:10.080 --> 1:16:11.240
	and that's going to be an OpenPilot,

	1:16:11.240 --> 1:16:13.000
	that's going to be an OpenPilot before 1.0,

	1:16:13.000 --> 1:16:14.400
	when you see that model, you'll know

	1:16:14.400 --> 1:16:15.360
	that everything I'm saying is true,

	1:16:15.360 --> 1:16:16.840
	because how else did I get that model?

	1:16:16.840 --> 1:16:17.320
	Good.

	1:16:17.320 --> 1:16:19.240
	You know what I'm saying is true about the simulator.

	1:16:19.240 --> 1:16:20.600
	Yeah, yeah, yeah, this is super exciting.

	1:16:20.600 --> 1:16:22.680
	That's super exciting.

	1:16:22.680 --> 1:16:25.760
	But I listened to your talk with Kyle,

	1:16:25.760 --> 1:16:30.480
	and Kyle was originally building the aftermarket system,

	1:16:30.480 --> 1:16:34.920
	and he gave up on it because of technical challenges,

	1:16:34.920 --> 1:16:37.360
	because of the fact that he's going

	1:16:37.360 --> 1:16:39.160
	to have to support 20 to 50 cars.

	1:16:39.160 --> 1:16:41.120
	We support 45, because what is he

	1:16:41.120 --> 1:16:43.440
	going to do when the manufacturer ABS system triggers?

	1:16:43.440 --> 1:16:45.480
	We have alerts and warnings to deal with all of that

	1:16:45.480 --> 1:16:48.400
	and all the cars, and how is he going to formally verify it?

	1:16:48.400 --> 1:16:49.800
	Well, I got 10 million miles of data.

	1:16:49.800 --> 1:16:53.240
	It's probably better verified than the spec.

	1:16:53.240 --> 1:16:57.720
	Yeah, I'm glad you're here talking to me.

	1:16:57.720 --> 1:17:01.120
	I'll remember this day, because it's interesting.

	1:17:01.120 --> 1:17:04.160
	If you look at Kyle's from Cruise,

	1:17:04.160 --> 1:17:06.320
	I'm sure they have a large number of business development

	1:17:06.320 --> 1:17:10.200
	folks, and he's working with GM.

	1:17:10.200 --> 1:17:13.280
	He could work with Argo AI, worked with Ford.

	1:17:13.280 --> 1:17:18.520
	It's interesting, because chances that you fail businesswise,

	1:17:18.520 --> 1:17:21.120
	like bankrupt, are pretty high.

	1:17:21.120 --> 1:17:23.880
	And yet, it's the Android model,

	1:17:23.880 --> 1:17:26.440
	is you're actually taking on the problem.

	1:17:26.440 --> 1:17:28.160
	So that's really inspiring.

	1:17:28.160 --> 1:17:30.920
	Well, I have a long term way for comedy to make money, too.

	1:17:30.920 --> 1:17:34.400
	And one of the nice things when you really take on the problem,

	1:17:34.400 --> 1:17:36.760
	which is my hope for autopilot, for example,

	1:17:36.760 --> 1:17:41.040
	is things you don't expect, ways to make money,

	1:17:41.040 --> 1:17:44.160
	or create value that you don't expect will pop up.

	1:17:44.160 --> 1:17:48.560
	I've known how to do it since 2017 is the first time I said it.

	1:17:48.560 --> 1:17:50.440
	Which part to know how to do which part?

	1:17:50.440 --> 1:17:52.520
	Our long term plan is to be a car insurance company.

	1:17:52.520 --> 1:17:53.160
	Insurance.

	1:17:53.160 --> 1:17:55.320
	Yeah, I love it.

	1:17:55.320 --> 1:17:56.680
	I make driving twice as safe.

	1:17:56.680 --> 1:17:57.680
	Not only that, I have the best data

	1:17:57.680 --> 1:18:00.040
	such to know who statistically is the safest drivers.

	1:18:00.040 --> 1:18:02.160
	And oh, oh, we see you.

	1:18:02.160 --> 1:18:03.720
	We see you driving unsafely.

	1:18:03.720 --> 1:18:05.360
	We're not going to insure you.

	1:18:05.360 --> 1:18:08.960
	And that causes a bifurcation in the market,

	1:18:08.960 --> 1:18:10.920
	because the only people who can't get common insurance

	1:18:10.920 --> 1:18:12.760
	or the bad drivers, Geico can insure them.

	1:18:12.760 --> 1:18:15.360
	Their premiums are crazy high, our premiums are crazy low.

	1:18:15.360 --> 1:18:16.240
	We win car insurance.

	1:18:16.240 --> 1:18:18.120
	Take over that whole market.

	1:18:18.120 --> 1:18:21.560
	OK, so if we win, if we win, but that's

	1:18:21.560 --> 1:18:23.800
	I'm saying like how do you turn comma into a $10 billion

	1:18:23.800 --> 1:18:24.640
	company is that.

	1:18:24.640 --> 1:18:25.600
	That's right.

	1:18:25.600 --> 1:18:30.000
	So you Elon Musk, who else?

	1:18:30.000 --> 1:18:32.720
	Who else is thinking like this and working like this

	1:18:32.720 --> 1:18:33.160
	in your view?

	1:18:33.160 --> 1:18:34.800
	Who are the competitors?

	1:18:34.800 --> 1:18:36.160
	Are there people seriously?

	1:18:36.160 --> 1:18:39.480
	I don't think anyone that I'm aware of is seriously

	1:18:39.480 --> 1:18:45.280
	taking on lane keeping, like to where it's a huge business that

	1:18:45.280 --> 1:18:51.400
	turns eventually to full autonomy that then creates

	1:18:51.400 --> 1:18:53.440
	other businesses on top of it and so on.

	1:18:53.440 --> 1:18:56.480
	Thinks insurance, thinks all kinds of ideas like that.

	1:18:56.480 --> 1:19:00.480
	Do you know anyone else thinking like this?

	1:19:00.480 --> 1:19:02.200
	Not really.

	1:19:02.200 --> 1:19:02.960
	That's interesting.

	1:19:02.960 --> 1:19:06.560
	I mean, my sense is everybody turns to that in like four

	1:19:06.560 --> 1:19:07.800
	or five years.

	1:19:07.800 --> 1:19:11.240
	Like Ford, once the autonomy doesn't fall through.

	1:19:11.240 --> 1:19:12.600
	But at this time.

	1:19:12.600 --> 1:19:14.120
	Elon's the iOS.

	1:19:14.120 --> 1:19:16.720
	By the way, he paved the way for all of us.

	1:19:16.720 --> 1:19:18.000
	It's not iOS, true.

	1:19:18.000 --> 1:19:21.520
	I would not be doing comma AI today if it was not

	1:19:21.520 --> 1:19:23.480
	for those conversations with Elon.

	1:19:23.480 --> 1:19:26.840
	And if it were not for him saying like,

	1:19:26.840 --> 1:19:28.600
	I think he said like, well, obviously we're not

	1:19:28.600 --> 1:19:31.280
	going to use LiDAR, we use cameras, humans use cameras.

	1:19:31.280 --> 1:19:32.600
	So what do you think about that?

	1:19:32.600 --> 1:19:33.880
	How important is LiDAR?

	1:19:33.880 --> 1:19:36.960
	Everybody else's on L5 is using LiDAR.

	1:19:36.960 --> 1:19:39.160
	What are your thoughts on his provocative statement

	1:19:39.160 --> 1:19:41.320
	that LiDAR is a crutch?

	1:19:41.320 --> 1:19:43.520
	See, sometimes they'll say dumb things like the driver

	1:19:43.520 --> 1:19:45.680
	monitoring thing, but sometimes they'll say absolutely

	1:19:45.680 --> 1:19:48.400
	completely 100% obviously true things.

	1:19:48.400 --> 1:19:50.840
	Of course LiDAR is a crutch.

	1:19:50.840 --> 1:19:53.040
	It's not even a good crutch.

	1:19:53.040 --> 1:19:54.200
	You're not even using it.

	1:19:54.200 --> 1:19:56.920
	They're using it for localization,

	1:19:56.920 --> 1:19:58.160
	which isn't good in the first place.

	1:19:58.160 --> 1:20:00.480
	If you have to localize your car to centimeters

	1:20:00.480 --> 1:20:04.280
	in order to drive, that's not driving.

	1:20:04.280 --> 1:20:06.320
	Currently not doing much machine learning.

	1:20:06.320 --> 1:20:09.280
	I thought LiDAR data, meaning like to help you

	1:20:09.280 --> 1:20:12.840
	in the task of general task of perception.

	1:20:12.840 --> 1:20:15.320
	The main goal of those LiDARs on those cars

	1:20:15.320 --> 1:20:18.840
	I think is actually localization more than perception,

	1:20:18.840 --> 1:20:20.080
	or at least that's what they use them for.

	1:20:20.080 --> 1:20:20.920
	Yeah, that's true.

	1:20:20.920 --> 1:20:22.480
	If you want to localize to centimeters,

	1:20:22.480 --> 1:20:23.720
	you can't use GPS.

	1:20:23.720 --> 1:20:25.120
	The fancies GPS in the world can't do it,

	1:20:25.120 --> 1:20:26.960
	especially if you're under tree cover and stuff.

	1:20:26.960 --> 1:20:28.480
	LiDAR you can do this pretty easily.

	1:20:28.480 --> 1:20:30.240
	So really they're not taking on,

	1:20:30.240 --> 1:20:33.200
	I mean in some research they're using it for perception,

	1:20:33.200 --> 1:20:35.840
	but and they're certainly not, which is sad,

	1:20:35.840 --> 1:20:38.680
	they're not fusing it well with vision.

	1:20:38.680 --> 1:20:40.560
	They do use it for perception.

	1:20:40.560 --> 1:20:42.400
	I'm not saying they don't use it for perception,

	1:20:42.400 --> 1:20:45.480
	but the thing that they have vision based

	1:20:45.480 --> 1:20:47.680
	and radar based perception systems as well.

	1:20:47.680 --> 1:20:51.440
	You could remove the LiDAR and keep around

	1:20:51.440 --> 1:20:54.040
	a lot of the dynamic object perception.

	1:20:54.040 --> 1:20:56.320
	You want to get centimeter accurate localization.

	1:20:56.320 --> 1:20:59.120
	Good luck doing that with anything else.

	1:20:59.120 --> 1:21:02.880
	So what should a cruise Waymo do?

	1:21:02.880 --> 1:21:05.360
	Like what would be your advice to them now?

	1:21:06.400 --> 1:21:11.400
	I mean Waymo is actually, they're serious.

	1:21:11.400 --> 1:21:13.120
	Waymo out of the ball of them,

	1:21:13.120 --> 1:21:16.120
	are quite serious about the long game.

	1:21:16.120 --> 1:21:20.680
	If L5 is a lot, is requires 50 years,

	1:21:20.680 --> 1:21:24.000
	I think Waymo will be the only one left standing at the end

	1:21:24.000 --> 1:21:26.560
	with a given the financial backing that they have.

	1:21:26.560 --> 1:21:28.640
	They're boo Google box.

	1:21:28.640 --> 1:21:31.040
	I'll say nice things about both Waymo and cruise.

	1:21:32.320 --> 1:21:33.480
	Let's do it.

	1:21:33.480 --> 1:21:34.320
	Nice is good.

	1:21:35.720 --> 1:21:39.200
	Waymo is by far the furthest along with technology.

	1:21:39.200 --> 1:21:41.160
	Waymo has a three to five year lead

	1:21:41.160 --> 1:21:42.880
	on all the competitors.

	1:21:43.960 --> 1:21:48.640
	If the Waymo looking stack works,

	1:21:48.640 --> 1:21:49.720
	maybe three year lead.

	1:21:49.720 --> 1:21:51.280
	If the Waymo looking stack works,

	1:21:51.280 --> 1:21:52.800
	they have a three year lead.

	1:21:52.800 --> 1:21:55.800
	Now, I argue that Waymo has spent too much money

	1:21:55.800 --> 1:21:59.240
	to recapitalize, to gain back their losses

	1:21:59.240 --> 1:22:00.160
	in those three years.

	1:22:00.160 --> 1:22:03.600
	Also self driving cars have no network effect like that.

	1:22:03.600 --> 1:22:04.800
	Uber has a network effect.

	1:22:04.800 --> 1:22:07.120
	You have a market, you have drivers and you have riders.

	1:22:07.120 --> 1:22:09.880
	Self driving cars, you have capital and you have riders.

	1:22:09.880 --> 1:22:11.400
	There's no network effect.

	1:22:11.400 --> 1:22:13.800
	If I want to blanket a new city in self driving cars,

	1:22:13.800 --> 1:22:16.000
	I buy the off the shelf Chinese knockoff self driving cars

	1:22:16.000 --> 1:22:17.160
	and I buy enough of them in the city.

	1:22:17.160 --> 1:22:18.360
	I can't do that with drivers.

	1:22:18.360 --> 1:22:20.840
	And that's why Uber has a first mover advantage

	1:22:20.840 --> 1:22:22.640
	that no self driving car company will.

	1:22:23.960 --> 1:22:26.520
	Can you just a thing, let a little bit.

	1:22:26.520 --> 1:22:28.160
	Uber, you're not talking about Uber,

	1:22:28.160 --> 1:22:29.240
	the autonomous vehicle Uber.

	1:22:29.240 --> 1:22:30.960
	You're talking about the Uber cars.

	1:22:30.960 --> 1:22:31.800
	Yeah.

	1:22:31.800 --> 1:22:32.640
	I'm Uber.

	1:22:32.640 --> 1:22:35.920
	I open for business in Austin, Texas, let's say.

	1:22:35.920 --> 1:22:38.760
	I need to attract both sides of the market.

	1:22:38.760 --> 1:22:41.200
	I need to both get drivers on my platform

	1:22:41.200 --> 1:22:42.720
	and riders on my platform.

	1:22:42.720 --> 1:22:45.320
	And I need to keep them both sufficiently happy, right?

	1:22:45.320 --> 1:22:46.520
	Riders aren't going to use it

	1:22:46.520 --> 1:22:48.960
	if it takes more than five minutes for an Uber to show up.

	1:22:48.960 --> 1:22:50.120
	Drivers aren't going to use it

	1:22:50.120 --> 1:22:52.120
	if they have to sit around all day and there's no riders.

	1:22:52.120 --> 1:22:54.480
	So you have to carefully balance a market.

	1:22:54.480 --> 1:22:56.240
	And whenever you have to carefully balance a market,

	1:22:56.240 --> 1:22:58.280
	there's a great first mover advantage

	1:22:58.280 --> 1:23:01.000
	because there's a switching cost for everybody, right?

	1:23:01.000 --> 1:23:02.120
	The drivers and the riders

	1:23:02.120 --> 1:23:04.080
	would have to switch at the same time.

	1:23:04.080 --> 1:23:08.880
	Let's even say that, let's say, Uber shows up.

	1:23:08.880 --> 1:23:13.880
	And Uber somehow agrees to do things at a bigger,

	1:23:14.800 --> 1:23:17.440
	we've done it more efficiently, right?

	1:23:17.440 --> 1:23:19.800
	Uber only takes 5% of a car

	1:23:19.800 --> 1:23:21.600
	instead of the 10% that Uber takes.

	1:23:21.600 --> 1:23:22.760
	No one is going to switch

	1:23:22.760 --> 1:23:24.920
	because the switching cost is higher than that 5%.

	1:23:24.920 --> 1:23:27.200
	So you actually can, in markets like that,

	1:23:27.200 --> 1:23:28.520
	you have a first mover advantage.

	1:23:28.520 --> 1:23:29.360
	Yeah.

	1:23:30.160 --> 1:23:32.720
	Autonomous vehicles of the level five variety

	1:23:32.720 --> 1:23:34.560
	have no first mover advantage.

	1:23:34.560 --> 1:23:36.800
	If the technology becomes commoditized,

	1:23:36.800 --> 1:23:39.520
	say I want to go to a new city, look at the scooters.

	1:23:39.520 --> 1:23:41.480
	It's going to look a lot more like scooters.

	1:23:41.480 --> 1:23:44.040
	Every person with a checkbook

	1:23:44.040 --> 1:23:45.720
	can blanket a city in scooters

	1:23:45.720 --> 1:23:47.920
	and that's why you have 10 different scooter companies.

	1:23:47.920 --> 1:23:48.760
	Which one's going to win?

	1:23:48.760 --> 1:23:49.600
	It's a race to the bottom.

	1:23:49.600 --> 1:23:51.040
	It's a terrible market to be in

	1:23:51.040 --> 1:23:53.160
	because there's no market for scooters.

	1:23:54.960 --> 1:23:56.520
	And the scooters don't get a say

	1:23:56.520 --> 1:23:57.480
	in whether they want to be bought

	1:23:57.480 --> 1:23:58.440
	and deployed to a city or not.

	1:23:58.440 --> 1:23:59.280
	Right.

	1:23:59.280 --> 1:24:00.120
	So yeah.

	1:24:00.120 --> 1:24:02.080
	We're going to entice the scooters with subsidies

	1:24:02.080 --> 1:24:02.920
	and deals.

	1:24:03.840 --> 1:24:05.480
	So whenever you have to invest that capital,

	1:24:05.480 --> 1:24:06.720
	it doesn't...

	1:24:06.720 --> 1:24:07.560
	It doesn't come back.

	1:24:07.560 --> 1:24:08.600
	Yeah.

	1:24:08.600 --> 1:24:12.320
	They can't be your main criticism of the Waymo approach.

	1:24:12.320 --> 1:24:14.840
	Oh, I'm saying even if it does technically work.

	1:24:14.840 --> 1:24:17.040
	Even if it does technically work, that's a problem.

	1:24:17.040 --> 1:24:18.000
	Yeah.

	1:24:18.000 --> 1:24:21.720
	I don't know if I were to say, I would say,

	1:24:22.840 --> 1:24:23.520
	you're already there.

	1:24:23.520 --> 1:24:24.560
	I haven't even thought about that.

	1:24:24.560 --> 1:24:26.520
	But I would say the bigger challenge

	1:24:26.520 --> 1:24:27.760
	is the technical approach.

	1:24:29.760 --> 1:24:31.840
	So Waymo's cruise is...

	1:24:31.840 --> 1:24:33.000
	And not just the technical approach,

	1:24:33.000 --> 1:24:34.800
	but of creating value.

	1:24:34.800 --> 1:24:39.800
	I still don't understand how you beat Uber,

	1:24:40.760 --> 1:24:43.480
	the human driven cars.

	1:24:43.480 --> 1:24:44.920
	In terms of financially,

	1:24:44.920 --> 1:24:47.160
	it doesn't make sense to me

	1:24:47.160 --> 1:24:50.080
	that people want to get an autonomous vehicle.

	1:24:50.080 --> 1:24:52.800
	I don't understand how you make money.

	1:24:52.800 --> 1:24:56.440
	In the long term, yes, like real long term,

	1:24:56.440 --> 1:24:58.640
	but it just feels like there's too much

	1:24:58.640 --> 1:24:59.960
	capital investment needed.

	1:24:59.960 --> 1:25:01.200
	Oh, and they're going to be worse than Ubers

	1:25:01.200 --> 1:25:02.440
	because they're going to stop

	1:25:02.440 --> 1:25:04.760
	for every little thing everywhere.

	1:25:06.320 --> 1:25:07.360
	I'll say a nice thing about cruise.

	1:25:07.360 --> 1:25:08.440
	That was my nice thing about Waymo.

	1:25:08.440 --> 1:25:09.280
	They're three years ahead of me.

	1:25:09.280 --> 1:25:10.120
	It was a nice...

	1:25:10.120 --> 1:25:10.960
	Oh, because they're three years.

	1:25:10.960 --> 1:25:12.480
	They're three years technically ahead of everybody.

	1:25:12.480 --> 1:25:13.960
	Their tech stack is great.

	1:25:14.800 --> 1:25:17.920
	My nice thing about cruise is GM buying them

	1:25:17.920 --> 1:25:19.160
	was a great move for GM.

	1:25:20.600 --> 1:25:22.240
	For $1 billion,

	1:25:22.240 --> 1:25:25.600
	GM bought an insurance policy against Waymo.

	1:25:26.560 --> 1:25:30.000
	They put cruise is three years behind Waymo.

	1:25:30.000 --> 1:25:32.600
	That means Google will get a monopoly

	1:25:32.600 --> 1:25:35.160
	on the technology for at most three years.

	1:25:36.840 --> 1:25:38.880
	And if technology works,

	1:25:38.880 --> 1:25:40.840
	you might not even be right about the three years.

	1:25:40.840 --> 1:25:41.840
	It might be less.

	1:25:41.840 --> 1:25:42.680
	Might be less.

	1:25:42.680 --> 1:25:44.320
	Cruise actually might not be that far behind.

	1:25:44.320 --> 1:25:47.360
	I don't know how much Waymo has waffled around

	1:25:47.360 --> 1:25:49.760
	or how much of it actually is just that long tail.

	1:25:49.760 --> 1:25:50.600
	Yeah, okay.

	1:25:50.600 --> 1:25:53.600
	If that's the best you could say in terms of nice things,

	1:25:53.600 --> 1:25:55.200
	that's more of a nice thing for GM

	1:25:55.200 --> 1:25:58.560
	that that's a smart insurance policy.

	1:25:58.560 --> 1:25:59.680
	It's a smart insurance policy.

	1:25:59.680 --> 1:26:01.880
	I mean, I think that's how...

	1:26:01.880 --> 1:26:05.200
	I can't see cruise working out any other.

	1:26:05.200 --> 1:26:07.840
	For cruise to leapfrog Waymo would really surprise me.

	1:26:10.400 --> 1:26:13.000
	Yeah, so let's talk about the underlying assumptions

	1:26:13.000 --> 1:26:13.840
	of everything is...

	1:26:13.840 --> 1:26:15.440
	We're not gonna leapfrog Tesla.

	1:26:17.560 --> 1:26:19.240
	Tesla would have to seriously mess up

	1:26:19.240 --> 1:26:20.440
	for us to leapfrog them.

	1:26:20.440 --> 1:26:23.240
	Okay, so the way you leapfrog, right,

	1:26:23.240 --> 1:26:26.120
	is you come up with an idea

	1:26:26.120 --> 1:26:28.560
	or you take a direction, perhaps secretly,

	1:26:28.560 --> 1:26:30.640
	that the other people aren't taking.

	1:26:31.640 --> 1:26:36.640
	And so cruise, Waymo, even Aurora...

	1:26:38.080 --> 1:26:40.080
	I don't know, Aurora, Zooks is the same stack as well.

	1:26:40.080 --> 1:26:41.720
	They're all the same code base even.

	1:26:41.720 --> 1:26:44.120
	They're all the same DARPA Urban Challenge code base.

	1:26:44.120 --> 1:26:45.360
	It's...

	1:26:45.360 --> 1:26:47.760
	So the question is, do you think there's a room

	1:26:47.760 --> 1:26:49.120
	for brilliance and innovation there

	1:26:49.120 --> 1:26:50.560
	that will change everything?

	1:26:51.560 --> 1:26:53.880
	Like say, okay, so I'll give you examples.

	1:26:53.880 --> 1:26:58.880
	It could be if revolution and mapping, for example,

	1:26:59.640 --> 1:27:03.040
	that allow you to map things,

	1:27:03.040 --> 1:27:05.840
	do HD maps of the whole world,

	1:27:05.840 --> 1:27:08.080
	all weather conditions somehow really well,

	1:27:08.080 --> 1:27:13.080
	or revolution and simulation,

	1:27:14.480 --> 1:27:18.840
	to where all the way you said before becomes incorrect.

	1:27:20.480 --> 1:27:21.520
	That kind of thing.

	1:27:21.520 --> 1:27:23.920
	Any room for breakthrough innovation?

	1:27:24.920 --> 1:27:25.960
	What I said before about,

	1:27:25.960 --> 1:27:28.280
	oh, they actually get the whole thing, well,

	1:27:28.280 --> 1:27:32.600
	I'll say this about we divide driving into three problems.

	1:27:32.600 --> 1:27:33.800
	And I actually haven't solved the third yet,

	1:27:33.800 --> 1:27:34.800
	but I haven't had any idea how to do it.

	1:27:34.800 --> 1:27:36.120
	So there's the static.

	1:27:36.120 --> 1:27:38.000
	The static driving problem is assuming

	1:27:38.000 --> 1:27:40.120
	you are the only car on the road, right?

	1:27:40.120 --> 1:27:42.000
	And this problem can be solved 100%

	1:27:42.000 --> 1:27:44.000
	with mapping and localization.

	1:27:44.000 --> 1:27:45.760
	This is why farms work the way they do.

	1:27:45.760 --> 1:27:48.440
	If all you have to deal with is the static problem,

	1:27:48.440 --> 1:27:50.160
	and you can statically schedule your machines, right?

	1:27:50.160 --> 1:27:52.680
	It's the same as like statically scheduling processes.

	1:27:52.680 --> 1:27:54.040
	You can statically schedule your tractors

	1:27:54.040 --> 1:27:56.160
	to never hit each other on their paths, right?

	1:27:56.160 --> 1:27:57.520
	Because then you know the speed they go at.

	1:27:57.520 --> 1:28:00.160
	So that's the static driving problem.

	1:28:00.160 --> 1:28:03.160
	Maps only helps you with the static driving problem.

	1:28:03.920 --> 1:28:06.960
	Yeah, the question about static driving,

	1:28:06.960 --> 1:28:08.800
	you've just made it sound like it's really easy.

	1:28:08.800 --> 1:28:10.160
	Static driving is really easy.

	1:28:11.880 --> 1:28:13.040
	How easy?

	1:28:13.040 --> 1:28:16.480
	How, well, because the whole drifting out of lane,

	1:28:16.480 --> 1:28:18.760
	when Tesla drifts out of lane,

	1:28:18.760 --> 1:28:21.960
	it's failing on the fundamental static driving problem.

	1:28:21.960 --> 1:28:24.440
	Tesla is drifting out of lane?

	1:28:24.440 --> 1:28:27.720
	The static driving problem is not easy for the world.

	1:28:27.720 --> 1:28:30.320
	The static driving problem is easy for one route.

	1:28:31.840 --> 1:28:33.920
	One route in one weather condition

	1:28:33.920 --> 1:28:37.920
	with one state of lane markings

	1:28:37.920 --> 1:28:40.920
	and like no deterioration, no cracks in the road.

	1:28:40.920 --> 1:28:42.600
	Well, I'm assuming you have a perfect localizer.

	1:28:42.600 --> 1:28:44.200
	So that's all for the weather condition

	1:28:44.200 --> 1:28:45.560
	and the lane marking condition.

	1:28:45.560 --> 1:28:46.640
	But that's the problem.

	1:28:46.640 --> 1:28:47.680
	How do you have a perfect localizer?

	1:28:47.680 --> 1:28:50.560
	You can build, perfect localizers are not that hard to build.

	1:28:50.560 --> 1:28:53.360
	Okay, come on now, with LIDAR.

	1:28:53.360 --> 1:28:54.200
	LIDAR, yeah.

	1:28:54.200 --> 1:28:55.040
	With LIDAR, okay.

	1:28:55.040 --> 1:28:56.440
	LIDAR, yeah, but you use LIDAR, right?

	1:28:56.440 --> 1:28:58.640
	Like you use LIDAR, build a perfect localizer.

	1:28:58.640 --> 1:29:00.960
	Building a perfect localizer without LIDAR,

	1:29:03.000 --> 1:29:04.320
	it's gonna be hard.

	1:29:04.320 --> 1:29:05.760
	You can get 10 centimeters without LIDAR,

	1:29:05.760 --> 1:29:07.240
	you can get one centimeter with LIDAR.

	1:29:07.240 --> 1:29:09.280
	I'm not even concerned about the one or 10 centimeters.

	1:29:09.280 --> 1:29:12.680
	I'm concerned if every once in a while you just weigh off.

	1:29:12.680 --> 1:29:17.480
	Yeah, so this is why you have to carefully

	1:29:17.480 --> 1:29:20.040
	make sure you're always tracking your position.

	1:29:20.040 --> 1:29:21.760
	You wanna use LIDAR camera fusion,

	1:29:21.760 --> 1:29:24.480
	but you can get the reliability of that system

	1:29:24.480 --> 1:29:28.000
	up to 100,000 miles

	1:29:28.000 --> 1:29:29.720
	and then you write some fallback condition

	1:29:29.720 --> 1:29:32.160
	where it's not that bad if you're way off, right?

	1:29:32.160 --> 1:29:33.800
	I think that you can get it to the point,

	1:29:33.800 --> 1:29:36.800
	it's like ASL D that you're never in a case

	1:29:36.800 --> 1:29:38.480
	where you're way off and you don't know it.

	1:29:38.480 --> 1:29:40.240
	Yeah, okay, so this is brilliant.

	1:29:40.240 --> 1:29:41.160
	So that's the static.

	1:29:41.160 --> 1:29:42.280
	Static.

	1:29:42.280 --> 1:29:45.960
	We can, especially with LIDAR and good HD maps,

	1:29:45.960 --> 1:29:47.080
	you can solve that problem.

	1:29:47.080 --> 1:29:47.920
	It's easy.

	1:29:47.920 --> 1:29:51.840
	The static, the static problem is so easy.

	1:29:51.840 --> 1:29:54.000
	It's very typical for you to say something's easy.

	1:29:54.000 --> 1:29:54.840
	I got it.

	1:29:54.840 --> 1:29:56.920
	It's not as challenging as the other ones, okay.

	1:29:56.920 --> 1:29:58.760
	Well, okay, maybe it's obvious how to solve it.

	1:29:58.760 --> 1:29:59.760
	The third one's the hardest.

	1:29:59.760 --> 1:30:01.920
	And a lot of people don't even think about the third one

	1:30:01.920 --> 1:30:03.640
	and even see it as different from the second one.

	1:30:03.640 --> 1:30:05.720
	So the second one is dynamic.

	1:30:05.720 --> 1:30:08.560
	The second one is like, say there's an obvious example,

	1:30:08.560 --> 1:30:10.360
	it's like a car stopped at a red light, right?

	1:30:10.360 --> 1:30:12.520
	You can't have that car in your map

	1:30:12.520 --> 1:30:13.720
	because you don't know whether that car

	1:30:13.720 --> 1:30:14.880
	is gonna be there or not.

	1:30:14.880 --> 1:30:17.960
	So you have to detect that car in real time

	1:30:17.960 --> 1:30:21.600
	and then you have to do the appropriate action, right?

	1:30:21.600 --> 1:30:24.800
	Also, that car is not a fixed object.

	1:30:24.800 --> 1:30:26.600
	That car may move and you have to predict

	1:30:26.600 --> 1:30:28.680
	what that car will do, right?

	1:30:28.680 --> 1:30:30.840
	So this is the dynamic problem.

	1:30:30.840 --> 1:30:31.680
	Yeah.

	1:30:31.680 --> 1:30:32.800
	So you have to deal with this.

	1:30:32.800 --> 1:30:36.640
	This involves, again, like you're gonna need models

	1:30:36.640 --> 1:30:38.760
	of other people's behavior.

	1:30:38.760 --> 1:30:40.160
	Do you, are you including in that?

	1:30:40.160 --> 1:30:42.320
	I don't wanna step on the third one.

	1:30:42.320 --> 1:30:46.600
	Oh, but are you including in that your influence

	1:30:46.600 --> 1:30:47.440
	on people?

	1:30:47.440 --> 1:30:48.280
	Ah, that's the third one.

	1:30:48.280 --> 1:30:49.120
	Okay.

	1:30:49.120 --> 1:30:49.960
	That's the third one.

	1:30:49.960 --> 1:30:51.880
	We call it the counterfactual.

	1:30:51.880 --> 1:30:52.720
	Yeah, brilliant.

	1:30:52.720 --> 1:30:53.560
	And that.

	1:30:53.560 --> 1:30:54.920
	I just talked to Judea Pro who's obsessed

	1:30:54.920 --> 1:30:55.760
	with counterfactuals.

	1:30:55.760 --> 1:30:58.640
	Counterfactual, oh yeah, yeah, I read his books.

	1:30:58.640 --> 1:31:03.640
	So the static and the dynamic are our approach right now

	1:31:03.960 --> 1:31:07.600
	for lateral will scale completely to the static and dynamic.

	1:31:07.600 --> 1:31:10.760
	The counterfactual, the only way I have to do it yet,

	1:31:10.760 --> 1:31:14.000
	the thing that I wanna do once we have all of these cars

	1:31:14.000 --> 1:31:16.760
	is I wanna do reinforcement learning on the world.

	1:31:16.760 --> 1:31:18.880
	I'm always gonna turn the exploiter up to max.

	1:31:18.880 --> 1:31:20.440
	I'm not gonna have them explore.

	1:31:20.440 --> 1:31:22.760
	But the only real way to get at the counterfactual

	1:31:22.760 --> 1:31:24.080
	is to do reinforcement learning

	1:31:24.080 --> 1:31:26.360
	because the other agents are humans.

	1:31:27.760 --> 1:31:30.080
	So that's fascinating that you break it down like that.

	1:31:30.080 --> 1:31:31.680
	I agree completely.

	1:31:31.680 --> 1:31:33.600
	I've spent my life thinking about this problem.

	1:31:33.600 --> 1:31:34.920
	This is beautiful.

	1:31:34.920 --> 1:31:37.880
	And part of it, cause you're slightly insane,

	1:31:37.880 --> 1:31:42.880
	because not my life, just the last four years.

	1:31:43.120 --> 1:31:48.120
	No, no, you have some non zero percent of your brain

	1:31:48.920 --> 1:31:52.360
	has a madman in it, which is a really good feature.

	1:31:52.360 --> 1:31:55.920
	But there's a safety component to it

	1:31:55.920 --> 1:31:57.320
	that I think when there's sort of

	1:31:57.320 --> 1:31:59.040
	with counterfactuals and so on,

	1:31:59.040 --> 1:32:00.280
	that would just freak people out.

	1:32:00.280 --> 1:32:03.320
	How do you even start to think about this in general?

	1:32:03.320 --> 1:32:07.600
	I mean, you've had some friction with NHTSA and so on.

	1:32:07.600 --> 1:32:12.600
	I am frankly exhausted by safety engineers.

	1:32:14.280 --> 1:32:19.280
	The prioritization on safety over innovation

	1:32:21.360 --> 1:32:23.720
	to a degree where it kills, in my view,

	1:32:23.720 --> 1:32:26.200
	kills safety in the longterm.

	1:32:26.200 --> 1:32:28.080
	So the counterfactual thing,

	1:32:28.080 --> 1:32:31.560
	they just actually exploring this world

	1:32:31.560 --> 1:32:33.600
	of how do you interact with dynamic objects and so on?

	1:32:33.600 --> 1:32:34.840
	How do you think about safety?

	1:32:34.840 --> 1:32:38.120
	You can do reinforcement learning without ever exploring.

	1:32:38.120 --> 1:32:39.200
	And I said that, like,

	1:32:39.200 --> 1:32:41.560
	so you can think about your, in like reinforcement learning,

	1:32:41.560 --> 1:32:44.320
	it's usually called like a temperature parameter.

	1:32:44.320 --> 1:32:45.360
	And your temperature parameter

	1:32:45.360 --> 1:32:48.080
	is how often you deviate from the argmax.

	1:32:48.080 --> 1:32:50.720
	I could always set that to zero and still learn.

	1:32:50.720 --> 1:32:52.840
	And I feel that you'd always want that set to zero

	1:32:52.840 --> 1:32:54.080
	on your actual system.

	1:32:54.080 --> 1:32:54.920
	Gotcha.

	1:32:54.920 --> 1:32:58.160
	But the problem is you first don't know very much

	1:32:58.160 --> 1:32:59.560
	and so you're going to make mistakes.

	1:32:59.560 --> 1:33:01.680
	So the learning, the exploration happens through mistakes.

	1:33:01.680 --> 1:33:03.240
	We're all ready, yeah, but.

	1:33:03.240 --> 1:33:06.080
	Okay, so the consequences of a mistake.

	1:33:06.080 --> 1:33:09.400
	OpenPilot and Autopilot are making mistakes left and right.

	1:33:09.400 --> 1:33:12.560
	We have 700 daily active users,

	1:33:12.560 --> 1:33:14.080
	1,000 weekly active users.

	1:33:14.080 --> 1:33:18.920
	OpenPilot makes tens of thousands of mistakes a week.

	1:33:18.920 --> 1:33:21.160
	These mistakes have zero consequences.

	1:33:21.160 --> 1:33:22.520
	These mistakes are,

	1:33:22.520 --> 1:33:26.800
	oh, I wanted to take this exit and it went straight.

	1:33:26.800 --> 1:33:28.520
	So I'm just going to carefully touch the wheel.

	1:33:28.520 --> 1:33:29.360
	The humans catch them.

	1:33:29.360 --> 1:33:30.640
	The humans catch them.

	1:33:30.640 --> 1:33:33.120
	And the human disengagement is labeling

	1:33:33.120 --> 1:33:35.000
	that reinforcement learning in a completely

	1:33:35.000 --> 1:33:36.200
	consequence free way.

	1:33:37.240 --> 1:33:39.840
	So driver monitoring is the way you ensure they keep.

	1:33:39.840 --> 1:33:40.680
	Yes.

	1:33:40.680 --> 1:33:42.120
	They keep paying attention.

	1:33:42.120 --> 1:33:43.240
	How's your messaging?

	1:33:43.240 --> 1:33:45.200
	Say I gave you a billion dollars,

	1:33:45.200 --> 1:33:46.960
	so you would be scaling it now.

	1:33:47.800 --> 1:33:49.720
	Oh, if I could scale, I couldn't scale with any amount of money.

	1:33:49.720 --> 1:33:51.640
	I'd raise money if I could, if I had a way to scale it.

	1:33:51.640 --> 1:33:53.320
	Yeah, you're not, no, I'm not focused on scale.

	1:33:53.320 --> 1:33:54.160
	I don't know how to do.

	1:33:54.160 --> 1:33:55.760
	Oh, like, I guess I could sell it to more people,

	1:33:55.760 --> 1:33:56.960
	but I want to make the system better.

	1:33:56.960 --> 1:33:57.800
	Better, better.

	1:33:57.800 --> 1:33:58.840
	And I don't know how to.

	1:33:58.840 --> 1:34:01.080
	But what's the messaging here?

	1:34:01.080 --> 1:34:02.560
	I got a chance to talk to Elon.

	1:34:02.560 --> 1:34:07.560
	And he basically said that the human factor doesn't matter.

	1:34:09.280 --> 1:34:10.360
	You know, the human doesn't matter

	1:34:10.360 --> 1:34:12.280
	because the system will perform.

	1:34:12.280 --> 1:34:14.760
	There'll be sort of a, sorry to use the term,

	1:34:14.760 --> 1:34:16.120
	but like a singular, like a point

	1:34:16.120 --> 1:34:17.920
	where it gets just much better.

	1:34:17.920 --> 1:34:20.800
	And so the human, it won't really matter.

	1:34:20.800 --> 1:34:25.000
	But it seems like that human catching the system

	1:34:25.000 --> 1:34:29.360
	when it gets into trouble is like the thing

	1:34:29.360 --> 1:34:32.720
	which will make something like reinforcement learning work.

	1:34:32.720 --> 1:34:35.640
	So how do you, how do you think messaging for Tesla,

	1:34:35.640 --> 1:34:39.080
	for you, for the industry in general, should change?

	1:34:39.080 --> 1:34:40.840
	I think my messaging is pretty clear,

	1:34:40.840 --> 1:34:43.080
	at least like our messaging wasn't that clear

	1:34:43.080 --> 1:34:45.200
	in the beginning and I do kind of fault myself for that.

	1:34:45.200 --> 1:34:48.480
	We are proud right now to be a level two system.

	1:34:48.480 --> 1:34:50.360
	We are proud to be level two.

	1:34:50.360 --> 1:34:51.640
	If we talk about level four,

	1:34:51.640 --> 1:34:53.200
	it's not with the current hardware.

	1:34:53.200 --> 1:34:55.920
	It's not going to be just a magical OTA upgrade.

	1:34:55.920 --> 1:34:57.280
	It's going to be new hardware.

	1:34:57.280 --> 1:35:00.000
	It's going to be very carefully thought out right now.

	1:35:00.000 --> 1:35:01.560
	We are proud to be level two.

	1:35:01.560 --> 1:35:03.320
	And we have a rigorous safety model.

	1:35:03.320 --> 1:35:05.680
	I mean, not like, like, okay, rigorous.

	1:35:05.680 --> 1:35:06.600
	Who knows what that means?

	1:35:06.600 --> 1:35:08.600
	But we at least have a safety model

	1:35:08.600 --> 1:35:09.560
	and we make it explicit.

	1:35:09.560 --> 1:35:11.800
	It's in safety.md and open pilot.

	1:35:11.800 --> 1:35:13.960
	And it says, seriously though.

	1:35:13.960 --> 1:35:14.800
	Safety.md.

	1:35:14.800 --> 1:35:15.840
	Safety.md.

	1:35:16.840 --> 1:35:18.400
	This is really, this is so Android.

	1:35:18.400 --> 1:35:21.800
	So, well, this is, this is the safety model

	1:35:21.800 --> 1:35:25.520
	and I like to have conversations like if, like, you know,

	1:35:25.520 --> 1:35:27.120
	sometimes people will come to you and they're like,

	1:35:27.120 --> 1:35:29.240
	your system's not safe.

	1:35:29.240 --> 1:35:30.080
	Okay.

	1:35:30.080 --> 1:35:31.080
	Have you read my safety docs?

	1:35:31.080 --> 1:35:32.720
	Would you like to have an intelligent conversation

	1:35:32.720 --> 1:35:33.560
	about this?

	1:35:33.560 --> 1:35:34.400
	And the answer is always no.

	1:35:34.400 --> 1:35:36.880
	They just like scream about, it runs Python.

	1:35:38.240 --> 1:35:39.080
	Okay. What?

	1:35:39.080 --> 1:35:41.560
	So you're saying that, that because Python's not real time,

	1:35:41.560 --> 1:35:44.240
	Python not being real time never causes disengagement.

	1:35:44.240 --> 1:35:47.640
	Disengagement's are caused by, you know, the model is QM.

	1:35:47.640 --> 1:35:49.760
	But safety.md says the following.

	1:35:49.760 --> 1:35:50.600
	First and foremost,

	1:35:50.600 --> 1:35:53.000
	the driver must be paying attention at all times.

	1:35:54.240 --> 1:35:55.320
	I don't consider, I do,

	1:35:55.320 --> 1:35:57.720
	I still consider the software to be alpha software

	1:35:57.720 --> 1:36:00.080
	until we can actually enforce that statement.

	1:36:00.080 --> 1:36:03.280
	But I feel it's very well communicated to our users.

	1:36:03.280 --> 1:36:04.520
	Two more things.

	1:36:04.520 --> 1:36:09.080
	One is the user must be able to easily take control

	1:36:09.080 --> 1:36:10.880
	of the vehicle at all times.

	1:36:10.880 --> 1:36:14.440
	So if you step on the gas or brake with open pilot,

	1:36:14.440 --> 1:36:16.400
	it gives full manual control back to the user

	1:36:16.400 --> 1:36:18.680
	or press the cancel button.

	1:36:18.680 --> 1:36:23.240
	Step two, the car will never react so quickly.

	1:36:23.240 --> 1:36:26.000
	We define so quickly to be about one second

	1:36:26.000 --> 1:36:27.640
	that you can't react in time.

	1:36:27.640 --> 1:36:29.480
	And we do this by enforcing torque limits,

	1:36:29.480 --> 1:36:31.520
	braking limits and acceleration limits.

	1:36:31.520 --> 1:36:36.520
	So we have like our torque limits way lower than Tesla's.

	1:36:36.520 --> 1:36:39.080
	This is another potential.

	1:36:39.080 --> 1:36:40.240
	If I could tweak autopilot,

	1:36:40.240 --> 1:36:41.360
	I would lower their torque limit

	1:36:41.360 --> 1:36:42.960
	and I would add driver monitoring.

	1:36:42.960 --> 1:36:46.240
	Because autopilot can jerk the wheel hard.

	1:36:46.240 --> 1:36:47.520
	Open pilot can't.

	1:36:47.520 --> 1:36:52.080
	It's, we limit and all this code is open source, readable.

	1:36:52.080 --> 1:36:54.880
	And I believe now it's all MISRA C compliant.

	1:36:54.880 --> 1:36:55.800
	What's that mean?

	1:36:57.080 --> 1:37:00.400
	MISRA is like the automotive coding standard.

	1:37:00.400 --> 1:37:03.400
	At first, I've come to respect,

	1:37:03.400 --> 1:37:04.960
	I've been reading like the standards lately

	1:37:04.960 --> 1:37:05.920
	and I've come to respect them.

	1:37:05.920 --> 1:37:07.800
	They're actually written by very smart people.

	1:37:07.800 --> 1:37:09.920
	Yeah, they're brilliant people actually.

	1:37:09.920 --> 1:37:11.320
	They have a lot of experience.

	1:37:11.320 --> 1:37:13.360
	They're sometimes a little too cautious,

	1:37:13.360 --> 1:37:16.800
	but in this case, it pays off.

	1:37:16.800 --> 1:37:18.440
	MISRA is written by like computer scientists

	1:37:18.440 --> 1:37:19.840
	and you can tell by the language they use.

	1:37:19.840 --> 1:37:21.080
	You can tell by the language they use.

	1:37:21.080 --> 1:37:24.440
	They talk about like whether certain conditions in MISRA

	1:37:24.440 --> 1:37:26.520
	are decidable or undecidable.

	1:37:26.520 --> 1:37:28.360
	And you mean like the halting problem?

	1:37:28.360 --> 1:37:31.600
	And yes, all right, you've earned my respect.

	1:37:31.600 --> 1:37:33.120
	I will read carefully what you have to say

	1:37:33.120 --> 1:37:35.760
	and we want to make our code compliant with that.

	1:37:35.760 --> 1:37:38.160
	All right, so you're proud level two, beautiful.

	1:37:38.160 --> 1:37:42.320
	So you were the founder and I think CEO of Kama AI,

	1:37:42.320 --> 1:37:44.320
	then you were the head of research.

	1:37:44.320 --> 1:37:46.080
	What the heck are you now?

	1:37:46.080 --> 1:37:47.480
	What's your connection to Kama AI?

	1:37:47.480 --> 1:37:49.640
	I'm the president, but I'm one of those like

	1:37:49.640 --> 1:37:53.440
	unelected presidents of like a small dictatorship country,

	1:37:53.440 --> 1:37:55.200
	not one of those like elected presidents.

	1:37:55.200 --> 1:37:57.640
	Oh, so you're like Putin when he was like the, yeah,

	1:37:57.640 --> 1:37:58.980
	I got you.

	1:37:58.980 --> 1:38:02.120
	So there's, what's the governance structure?

	1:38:02.120 --> 1:38:04.800
	What's the future of Kama AI finance?

	1:38:04.800 --> 1:38:08.120
	I mean, yeah, as a business, do you want,

	1:38:08.120 --> 1:38:11.640
	are you just focused on getting things right now,

	1:38:11.640 --> 1:38:14.920
	making some small amount of money in the meantime

	1:38:14.920 --> 1:38:17.520
	and then when it works, it works a new scale.

	1:38:17.520 --> 1:38:20.480
	Our burn rate is about 200 K a month

	1:38:20.480 --> 1:38:23.040
	and our revenue is about 100 K a month.

	1:38:23.040 --> 1:38:24.920
	So we need to forex our revenue,

	1:38:24.920 --> 1:38:28.200
	but we haven't like tried very hard at that yet.

	1:38:28.200 --> 1:38:30.160
	And the revenue is basically selling stuff online.

	1:38:30.160 --> 1:38:32.360
	Yeah, we sell stuff shop.com.ai.

	1:38:32.360 --> 1:38:33.920
	Is there other, well, okay.

	1:38:33.920 --> 1:38:35.360
	So you'll have to figure out.

	1:38:35.360 --> 1:38:37.880
	That's our only, see, but to me,

	1:38:37.880 --> 1:38:40.400
	that's like respectable revenues.

	1:38:40.400 --> 1:38:42.640
	We make it by selling products to consumers

	1:38:42.640 --> 1:38:45.040
	for honest and transparent about what they are.

	1:38:45.040 --> 1:38:49.000
	Most actually level four companies, right?

	1:38:50.720 --> 1:38:54.320
	Cause you could easily start blowing up like smoke,

	1:38:54.320 --> 1:38:57.080
	like overselling the hype and feeding into,

	1:38:57.080 --> 1:38:59.080
	getting some fundraisers.

	1:38:59.080 --> 1:39:00.520
	Oh, you're the guy, you're a genius

	1:39:00.520 --> 1:39:01.800
	because you hacked the iPhone.

	1:39:01.800 --> 1:39:02.920
	Oh, I hate that.

	1:39:02.920 --> 1:39:03.760
	I hate that.

	1:39:03.760 --> 1:39:06.360
	Yeah, I can trade my social capital for more money.

	1:39:06.360 --> 1:39:07.320
	I did it once.

	1:39:07.320 --> 1:39:10.320
	I almost regret it doing it the first time.

	1:39:10.320 --> 1:39:11.640
	Well, on a small tangent,

	1:39:11.640 --> 1:39:16.560
	what's your, you seem to not like fame

	1:39:16.560 --> 1:39:18.840
	and yet you're also drawn to fame.

	1:39:18.840 --> 1:39:23.840
	What's, where have you on, where are you on that currently?

	1:39:24.560 --> 1:39:27.200
	Have you had some introspection, some soul searching?

	1:39:27.200 --> 1:39:28.480
	Yeah.

	1:39:28.480 --> 1:39:32.200
	I actually, I've come to a pretty stable position on that.

	1:39:32.200 --> 1:39:33.880
	Like after the first time,

	1:39:33.880 --> 1:39:36.840
	I realized that I don't want attention from the masses.

	1:39:36.840 --> 1:39:39.160
	I want attention from people who I respect.

	1:39:39.160 --> 1:39:41.960
	Who do you respect?

	1:39:41.960 --> 1:39:43.960
	I can give a list of people.

	1:39:43.960 --> 1:39:47.200
	So are these like Elon Musk type characters?

	1:39:47.200 --> 1:39:49.040
	Yeah.

	1:39:49.040 --> 1:39:50.000
	Actually, you know what?

	1:39:50.000 --> 1:39:51.200
	I'll make it more broad than that.

	1:39:51.200 --> 1:39:52.600
	I won't make it about a person.

	1:39:52.600 --> 1:39:54.040
	I respect skill.

	1:39:54.040 --> 1:39:56.880
	I respect people who have skills, right?

	1:39:56.880 --> 1:40:00.280
	And I would like to like be,

	1:40:00.280 --> 1:40:01.400
	I'm not gonna say famous,

	1:40:01.400 --> 1:40:03.760
	but be like known among more people

	1:40:03.760 --> 1:40:05.440
	who have like real skills.

	1:40:05.440 --> 1:40:10.440
	Who in cars, do you think have skill?

	1:40:12.560 --> 1:40:13.720
	Not do you respect?

	1:40:15.000 --> 1:40:17.760
	Oh, Kyle Voat has skill.

	1:40:17.760 --> 1:40:19.880
	A lot of people at Waymo have skill.

	1:40:19.880 --> 1:40:20.840
	And I respect them.

	1:40:20.840 --> 1:40:23.760
	I respect them as engineers.

	1:40:23.760 --> 1:40:24.920
	Like I can think, I mean,

	1:40:24.920 --> 1:40:26.280
	I think about all the times in my life

	1:40:26.280 --> 1:40:27.960
	where I've been like dead set on approaches

	1:40:27.960 --> 1:40:29.160
	and they turn out to be wrong.

	1:40:29.160 --> 1:40:30.000
	Yeah.

	1:40:30.000 --> 1:40:31.720
	So I mean, this might, I might be wrong.

	1:40:31.720 --> 1:40:34.720
	I accept that, I accept that there's a decent chance

	1:40:34.720 --> 1:40:36.600
	that I'm wrong.

	1:40:36.600 --> 1:40:38.400
	And actually, I mean, having talked to Chris Armson,

	1:40:38.400 --> 1:40:40.480
	Sterling Anderson, those guys,

	1:40:40.480 --> 1:40:43.360
	I mean, I deeply respect Chris.

	1:40:43.360 --> 1:40:44.640
	I just admire the guy.

	1:40:46.040 --> 1:40:47.400
	He's legit.

	1:40:47.400 --> 1:40:48.960
	When you drive a car through the desert

	1:40:48.960 --> 1:40:52.400
	when everybody thinks it's impossible, that's legit.

	1:40:52.400 --> 1:40:53.840
	And then I also really respect the people

	1:40:53.840 --> 1:40:55.680
	who are like writing the infrastructure of the world,

	1:40:55.680 --> 1:40:57.360
	like the Linus Torvalds and the Chris Ladin.

	1:40:57.360 --> 1:40:59.080
	Oh yeah, they were doing the real work.

	1:40:59.080 --> 1:41:00.800
	I know they're doing the real work.

	1:41:02.000 --> 1:41:03.760
	Having talked to Chris Ladin,

	1:41:03.760 --> 1:41:05.680
	you realize, especially when they're humble,

	1:41:05.680 --> 1:41:07.680
	it's like, you realize, oh, you guys,

	1:41:07.680 --> 1:41:09.640
	we're just using your...

	1:41:09.640 --> 1:41:10.480
	Oh yeah.

	1:41:10.480 --> 1:41:11.520
	All the hard work that you did.

	1:41:11.520 --> 1:41:13.120
	Yeah, that's incredible.

	1:41:13.120 --> 1:41:17.160
	What do you think, Mr. Anthony Lewandowski?

	1:41:18.440 --> 1:41:21.640
	What do you, he's a, he's another mad genius.

	1:41:21.640 --> 1:41:22.480
	Sharp guy.

	1:41:22.480 --> 1:41:23.320
	Oh yeah.

	1:41:23.320 --> 1:41:27.640
	What, do you think he might long term become a competitor?

	1:41:27.640 --> 1:41:28.840
	Oh, to comma?

	1:41:28.840 --> 1:41:32.400
	Well, so I think that he has the other right approach.

	1:41:32.400 --> 1:41:35.280
	I think that right now, there's two right approaches.

	1:41:35.280 --> 1:41:37.680
	One is what we're doing and one is what he's doing.

	1:41:37.680 --> 1:41:39.800
	Can you describe, I think it's called Pronto AI,

	1:41:39.800 --> 1:41:42.360
	he's starting using, do you know what the approach is?

	1:41:42.360 --> 1:41:43.200
	I actually don't know.

	1:41:43.200 --> 1:41:45.040
	Embark is also doing the same sort of thing.

	1:41:45.040 --> 1:41:47.280
	The idea is almost that you want to,

	1:41:47.280 --> 1:41:51.800
	so if you're, I can't partner with Honda and Toyota.

	1:41:51.800 --> 1:41:56.800
	Honda and Toyota are like 400,000 person companies.

	1:41:57.600 --> 1:41:59.400
	It's not even a company at that point.

	1:41:59.400 --> 1:42:01.400
	Like I don't think of it like, I don't personify it.

	1:42:01.400 --> 1:42:06.400
	I think of it like an object, but a trucker drives for a fleet.

	1:42:07.120 --> 1:42:10.280
	Maybe that has like, some truckers are independent.

	1:42:10.280 --> 1:42:12.080
	Some truckers drive for fleets with a hundred trucks.

	1:42:12.080 --> 1:42:14.960
	There are tons of independent trucking companies out there.

	1:42:14.960 --> 1:42:18.120
	Start a trucking company and drive your costs down

	1:42:18.120 --> 1:42:23.120
	or figure out how to drive down the cost of trucking.

	1:42:23.760 --> 1:42:26.560
	Another company that I really respect is Nauto.

	1:42:26.560 --> 1:42:28.320
	Actually, I respect their business model.

	1:42:28.320 --> 1:42:31.560
	Nauto sells a driver monitoring camera

	1:42:31.560 --> 1:42:33.920
	and they sell it to fleet owners.

	1:42:33.920 --> 1:42:38.920
	If I owned a fleet of cars and I could pay 40 bucks a month

	1:42:39.120 --> 1:42:41.280
	to monitor my employees,

	1:42:42.400 --> 1:42:45.520
	this is gonna like reduces accidents 18%.

	1:42:45.520 --> 1:42:48.960
	It's so like that in the space,

	1:42:48.960 --> 1:42:52.000
	that is like the business model that I like most respect

	1:42:53.400 --> 1:42:55.360
	because they're creating value today.

	1:42:55.360 --> 1:42:57.840
	Yeah, which is, that's a huge one.

	1:42:57.840 --> 1:42:59.800
	How do we create value today with some of this?

	1:42:59.800 --> 1:43:01.680
	And the length keeping thing is huge.

	1:43:01.680 --> 1:43:03.800
	And it sounds like you're creeping in

	1:43:03.800 --> 1:43:06.680
	or full steam ahead on the drive of monitoring too.

	1:43:06.680 --> 1:43:09.240
	Which I think actually where the short term value,

	1:43:09.240 --> 1:43:10.480
	if you can get right.

	1:43:10.480 --> 1:43:12.800
	I still, I'm not a huge fan of the statement

	1:43:12.800 --> 1:43:15.120
	that everything is to have drive of monitoring.

	1:43:15.120 --> 1:43:16.120
	I agree with that completely,

	1:43:16.120 --> 1:43:18.680
	but that statement usually misses the point

	1:43:18.680 --> 1:43:21.920
	that to get the experience of it right is not trivial.

	1:43:21.920 --> 1:43:22.840
	Oh, no, not at all.

	1:43:22.840 --> 1:43:25.280
	In fact, like, so right now we have,

	1:43:25.280 --> 1:43:28.480
	I think the timeout depends on speed of the car,

	1:43:29.560 --> 1:43:32.520
	but we want to depend on like the scene state.

	1:43:32.520 --> 1:43:35.440
	If you're on like an empty highway,

	1:43:35.440 --> 1:43:37.680
	it's very different if you don't pay attention

	1:43:37.680 --> 1:43:40.600
	than if like you're like coming up to a traffic light.

	1:43:42.040 --> 1:43:45.720
	And long term, it should probably learn from the driver

	1:43:45.720 --> 1:43:48.120
	because that's to do, I watched a lot of video.

	1:43:48.120 --> 1:43:49.480
	We've built a smartphone detector

	1:43:49.480 --> 1:43:51.520
	just to analyze how people are using smartphones

	1:43:51.520 --> 1:43:53.400
	and people are using it very differently.

	1:43:53.400 --> 1:43:57.760
	And there's this, it's a texting styles.

	1:43:57.760 --> 1:44:00.320
	We haven't watched nearly enough of the videos.

	1:44:00.320 --> 1:44:01.800
	We haven't, I got millions of miles

	1:44:01.800 --> 1:44:02.960
	of people driving cars.

	1:44:02.960 --> 1:44:05.960
	In this moment, I spent a large fraction of my time

	1:44:05.960 --> 1:44:10.880
	just watching videos because it's never fails to learn.

	1:44:10.880 --> 1:44:13.480
	Like I've never failed from a video watching session

	1:44:13.480 --> 1:44:15.400
	to learn something I didn't know before.

	1:44:15.400 --> 1:44:19.640
	In fact, I usually, like when I eat lunch, I'll sit,

	1:44:19.640 --> 1:44:20.680
	especially when the weather is good

	1:44:20.680 --> 1:44:22.080
	and just watch pedestrians.

	1:44:22.080 --> 1:44:26.400
	With an eye to understand like from a computer vision eye,

	1:44:26.400 --> 1:44:29.280
	just to see, can this model, can you predict

	1:44:29.280 --> 1:44:30.480
	what are the decisions made?

	1:44:30.480 --> 1:44:33.040
	And there's so many things that we don't understand.

	1:44:33.040 --> 1:44:34.760
	This is what I mean about state vector.

	1:44:34.760 --> 1:44:37.880
	Yeah, it's, I'm trying to always think like,

	1:44:37.880 --> 1:44:40.280
	because I'm understanding in my human brain,

	1:44:40.280 --> 1:44:42.000
	how do we convert that into,

	1:44:43.000 --> 1:44:44.960
	how hard is the learning problem here?

	1:44:44.960 --> 1:44:46.960
	I guess is the fundamental question.

	1:44:46.960 --> 1:44:51.800
	So something that's from a hacking perspective,

	1:44:51.800 --> 1:44:54.200
	this is always comes up, especially with folks.

	1:44:54.200 --> 1:44:56.480
	Well, first, the most popular question is

	1:44:56.480 --> 1:44:58.440
	the trolley problem, right?

	1:44:58.440 --> 1:45:01.960
	So that's not a sort of a serious problem.

	1:45:01.960 --> 1:45:05.000
	There are some ethical questions, I think that arise.

	1:45:06.080 --> 1:45:09.600
	Maybe you wanna, do you think there's any ethical,

	1:45:09.600 --> 1:45:11.280
	serious ethical questions?

	1:45:11.280 --> 1:45:14.080
	We have a solution to the trolley problem at com.ai.

	1:45:14.080 --> 1:45:15.920
	Well, so there is actually an alert

	1:45:15.920 --> 1:45:18.000
	in our code, ethical dilemma detected.

	1:45:18.000 --> 1:45:18.960
	It's not triggered yet.

	1:45:18.960 --> 1:45:21.040
	We don't know how yet to detect the ethical dilemmas,

	1:45:21.040 --> 1:45:22.360
	but we're a level two system.

	1:45:22.360 --> 1:45:23.760
	So we're going to disengage and leave

	1:45:23.760 --> 1:45:25.320
	that decision to the human.

	1:45:25.320 --> 1:45:26.680
	You're such a troll.

	1:45:26.680 --> 1:45:28.760
	No, but the trolley problem deserves to be trolled.

	1:45:28.760 --> 1:45:32.040
	Yeah, that's a beautiful answer actually.

	1:45:32.040 --> 1:45:34.440
	I know, I gave it to someone who was like,

	1:45:34.440 --> 1:45:36.600
	sometimes people ask like you asked about the trolley problem.

	1:45:36.600 --> 1:45:38.080
	Like you can have a kind of discussion about it.

	1:45:38.080 --> 1:45:39.720
	Like when you get someone who's like really like

	1:45:39.720 --> 1:45:43.600
	earnest about it, because it's the kind of thing where

	1:45:43.600 --> 1:45:45.600
	if you ask a bunch of people in an office,

	1:45:45.600 --> 1:45:48.360
	whether we should use a SQL stack or no SQL stack,

	1:45:48.360 --> 1:45:50.600
	if they're not that technical, they have no opinion.

	1:45:50.600 --> 1:45:52.360
	But if you ask them what color they want to paint the office,

	1:45:52.360 --> 1:45:54.040
	everyone has an opinion on that.

	1:45:54.040 --> 1:45:56.040
	And that's why the trolley problem is.

	1:45:56.040 --> 1:45:57.280
	I mean, that's a beautiful answer.

	1:45:57.280 --> 1:45:59.240
	Yeah, we're able to detect the problem

	1:45:59.240 --> 1:46:01.960
	and we're able to pass it on to the human.

	1:46:01.960 --> 1:46:03.760
	Wow, I've never heard anyone say it.

	1:46:03.760 --> 1:46:06.160
	This is your nice escape route.

	1:46:06.160 --> 1:46:07.320
	Okay, but...

	1:46:07.320 --> 1:46:08.680
	Proud level two.

	1:46:08.680 --> 1:46:09.760
	I'm proud level two.

	1:46:09.760 --> 1:46:10.600
	I love it.

	1:46:10.600 --> 1:46:14.400
	So the other thing that people have some concern about

	1:46:14.400 --> 1:46:17.800
	with AI in general is hacking.

	1:46:17.800 --> 1:46:21.400
	So how hard is it, do you think, to hack an autonomous vehicle

	1:46:21.400 --> 1:46:25.000
	either through physical access or through the more sort of

	1:46:25.000 --> 1:46:28.240
	popular now, these adversarial examples on the sensors?

	1:46:28.240 --> 1:46:30.720
	Okay, the adversarial examples one.

	1:46:30.720 --> 1:46:32.320
	You want to see some adversarial examples

	1:46:32.320 --> 1:46:34.880
	that affect humans, right?

	1:46:34.880 --> 1:46:38.040
	Oh, well, there used to be a stop sign here,

	1:46:38.040 --> 1:46:40.000
	but I put a black bag over the stop sign

	1:46:40.000 --> 1:46:43.520
	and then people ran it, adversarial, right?

	1:46:43.520 --> 1:46:48.360
	Like, there's tons of human adversarial examples too.

	1:46:48.360 --> 1:46:52.240
	The question in general about security, if you saw,

	1:46:52.240 --> 1:46:54.040
	something just came out today and there are always

	1:46:54.040 --> 1:46:57.560
	such hypey headlines about how navigate on autopilot

	1:46:57.560 --> 1:47:00.960
	was fooled by a GPS spoof to take an exit.

	1:47:00.960 --> 1:47:01.800
	Right.

	1:47:01.800 --> 1:47:03.920
	At least that's all they could do was take an exit.

	1:47:03.920 --> 1:47:06.720
	If your car is relying on GPS in order

	1:47:06.720 --> 1:47:10.240
	to have a safe driving policy, you're doing something wrong.

	1:47:10.240 --> 1:47:12.680
	If you're relying, and this is why V2V

	1:47:12.680 --> 1:47:17.680
	is such a terrible idea, V2V now relies on both parties

	1:47:18.160 --> 1:47:19.800
	getting communication right.

	1:47:19.800 --> 1:47:24.800
	This is not even, so I think of safety,

	1:47:26.080 --> 1:47:28.480
	security is like a special case of safety, right?

	1:47:28.480 --> 1:47:31.880
	Safety is like we put a little, you know,

	1:47:31.880 --> 1:47:33.360
	piece of caution tape around the hole

	1:47:33.360 --> 1:47:35.560
	so that people won't walk into it by accident.

	1:47:35.560 --> 1:47:38.240
	Security is like put a 10 foot fence around the hole

	1:47:38.240 --> 1:47:40.120
	so you actually physically cannot climb into it

	1:47:40.120 --> 1:47:42.360
	with barbed wire on the top and stuff, right?

	1:47:42.360 --> 1:47:44.560
	So like if you're designing systems

	1:47:44.560 --> 1:47:47.440
	that are like unreliable, they're definitely not secure.

	1:47:48.440 --> 1:47:51.240
	Your car should always do something safe

	1:47:51.240 --> 1:47:53.400
	using its local sensors.

	1:47:53.400 --> 1:47:55.240
	And then the local sensor should be hardwired.

	1:47:55.240 --> 1:47:57.400
	And then could somebody hack into your can boss

	1:47:57.400 --> 1:47:58.640
	and turn your steering wheel on your brakes?

	1:47:58.640 --> 1:48:01.240
	Yes, but they could do it before comma AI too, so.

	1:48:02.800 --> 1:48:04.680
	Let's think out of the box and some things.

	1:48:04.680 --> 1:48:09.400
	So do you think teleoperation has a role in any of this?

	1:48:09.400 --> 1:48:13.880
	So remotely stepping in and controlling the cars?

	1:48:13.880 --> 1:48:18.880
	No, I think that if the safety operation

	1:48:21.320 --> 1:48:26.160
	by design requires a constant link to the cars,

	1:48:26.160 --> 1:48:27.560
	I think it doesn't work.

	1:48:27.560 --> 1:48:31.080
	So that's the same argument used for V2I, V2V.

	1:48:31.080 --> 1:48:34.280
	Well, there's a lot of non safety critical stuff

	1:48:34.280 --> 1:48:35.120
	you can do with V2I.

	1:48:35.120 --> 1:48:37.440
	I like V2I, I like V2I way more than V2V

	1:48:37.440 --> 1:48:39.280
	because V2I is already like,

	1:48:39.280 --> 1:48:40.880
	I already have internet in the car, right?

	1:48:40.880 --> 1:48:43.280
	There's a lot of great stuff you can do with V2I.

	1:48:44.280 --> 1:48:46.320
	Like for example, you can,

	1:48:46.320 --> 1:48:48.880
	well, where I already have V2V, Waze is V2I, right?

	1:48:48.880 --> 1:48:50.520
	Waze can route me around traffic jams.

	1:48:50.520 --> 1:48:52.760
	That's a great example of V2I.

	1:48:52.760 --> 1:48:54.440
	And then, okay, the car automatically talks

	1:48:54.440 --> 1:48:55.800
	to that same service, like it works.

	1:48:55.800 --> 1:48:56.800
	So it's improving the experience,

	1:48:56.800 --> 1:48:59.480
	but it's not a fundamental fallback for safety.

	1:48:59.480 --> 1:49:04.160
	No, if any of your things that require

	1:49:04.160 --> 1:49:07.480
	wireless communication are more than QM,

	1:49:07.480 --> 1:49:10.640
	like have an ASL rating, you shouldn't.

	1:49:10.640 --> 1:49:14.200
	You previously said that life is work

	1:49:15.440 --> 1:49:17.480
	and that you don't do anything to relax.

	1:49:17.480 --> 1:49:20.800
	So how do you think about hard work?

	1:49:20.800 --> 1:49:22.200
	Well, what is it?

	1:49:22.200 --> 1:49:24.720
	What do you think it takes to accomplish great things?

	1:49:24.720 --> 1:49:25.840
	And there's a lot of people saying

	1:49:25.840 --> 1:49:28.280
	that there needs to be some balance.

	1:49:28.280 --> 1:49:29.600
	You know, you need to,

	1:49:29.600 --> 1:49:31.120
	in order to accomplish great things,

	1:49:31.120 --> 1:49:32.200
	you need to take some time off,

	1:49:32.200 --> 1:49:34.640
	you need to reflect and so on.

	1:49:34.640 --> 1:49:37.840
	And then some people are just insanely working,

	1:49:37.840 --> 1:49:39.640
	burning the candle on both ends.

	1:49:39.640 --> 1:49:41.360
	How do you think about that?

	1:49:41.360 --> 1:49:43.400
	I think I was trolling in the Suraj interview

	1:49:43.400 --> 1:49:45.600
	when I said that off camera,

	1:49:45.600 --> 1:49:47.240
	but right before I spoke to a little bit of weed,

	1:49:47.240 --> 1:49:49.800
	like, you know, come on, this is a joke, right?

	1:49:49.800 --> 1:49:50.880
	Like I do nothing to relax.

	1:49:50.880 --> 1:49:52.560
	Look where I am, I'm at a party, right?

	1:49:52.560 --> 1:49:53.960
	Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure.

	1:49:53.960 --> 1:49:55.200
	That's true.

	1:49:55.200 --> 1:49:58.040
	So no, no, of course I don't.

	1:49:58.040 --> 1:49:59.800
	When I say that life is work though,

	1:49:59.800 --> 1:50:01.960
	I mean that like, I think that

	1:50:01.960 --> 1:50:04.200
	what gives my life meaning is work.

	1:50:04.200 --> 1:50:05.720
	I don't mean that every minute of the day

	1:50:05.720 --> 1:50:06.560
	you should be working.

	1:50:06.560 --> 1:50:08.000
	I actually think this is not the best way

	1:50:08.000 --> 1:50:09.800
	to maximize results.

	1:50:09.800 --> 1:50:12.040
	I think that if you're working 12 hours a day,

	1:50:12.040 --> 1:50:14.920
	you should be working smarter and not harder.

	1:50:14.920 --> 1:50:17.880
	Well, so it gives work gives you meaning

	1:50:17.880 --> 1:50:20.520
	for some people, other sorts of meaning

	1:50:20.520 --> 1:50:24.560
	is personal relationships, like family and so on.

	1:50:24.560 --> 1:50:27.200
	You've also in that interview with Suraj

	1:50:27.200 --> 1:50:30.720
	or the trolling mentioned that one of the things

	1:50:30.720 --> 1:50:33.400
	you look forward to in the future is AI girlfriends.

	1:50:33.400 --> 1:50:34.360
	Yes.

	1:50:34.360 --> 1:50:38.800
	So that's a topic that I'm very much fascinated by,

	1:50:38.800 --> 1:50:39.840
	not necessarily girlfriends,

	1:50:39.840 --> 1:50:41.880
	but just forming a deep connection with AI.

	1:50:41.880 --> 1:50:42.960
	Yeah.

	1:50:42.960 --> 1:50:44.400
	What kind of system do you imagine

	1:50:44.400 --> 1:50:46.240
	when you say AI girlfriend,

	1:50:46.240 --> 1:50:47.800
	whether you were trolling or not?

	1:50:47.800 --> 1:50:49.720
	No, that one I'm very serious about.

	1:50:49.720 --> 1:50:52.360
	And I'm serious about that on both a shallow level

	1:50:52.360 --> 1:50:53.680
	and a deep level.

	1:50:53.680 --> 1:50:55.720
	I think that VR brothels are coming soon

	1:50:55.720 --> 1:50:57.800
	and are gonna be really cool.

	1:50:57.800 --> 1:50:59.760
	It's not cheating if it's a robot.

	1:50:59.760 --> 1:51:01.080
	I see the slogan already.

	1:51:01.080 --> 1:51:04.320
	Um, but...

	1:51:04.320 --> 1:51:06.200
	There's a, I don't know if you've watched

	1:51:06.200 --> 1:51:08.320
	or just watched the Black Mirror episode.

	1:51:08.320 --> 1:51:09.320
	I watched the latest one, yeah.

	1:51:09.320 --> 1:51:11.320
	Yeah, yeah.

	1:51:11.320 --> 1:51:13.160
	Oh, the Ashley 2 one?

	1:51:13.160 --> 1:51:15.120
	Or the...

	1:51:15.120 --> 1:51:16.920
	No, where there's two friends

	1:51:16.920 --> 1:51:20.160
	who were having sex with each other in...

	1:51:20.160 --> 1:51:21.240
	Oh, in the VR game.

	1:51:21.240 --> 1:51:23.560
	In the VR game, it's the two guys,

	1:51:23.560 --> 1:51:26.720
	but one of them was a female, yeah.

	1:51:26.720 --> 1:51:27.560
	Yeah, the...

	1:51:27.560 --> 1:51:29.560
	Which is another mind blowing concept.

	1:51:29.560 --> 1:51:33.320
	That in VR, you don't have to be the form.

	1:51:33.320 --> 1:51:37.720
	You can be two animals having sex, it's weird.

	1:51:37.720 --> 1:51:38.560
	I mean, I'll see how nice

	1:51:38.560 --> 1:51:40.280
	that the software maps the nerve endings, right?

	1:51:40.280 --> 1:51:41.600
	Yeah, it's weird.

	1:51:41.600 --> 1:51:44.480
	I mean, yeah, they sweep a lot of the fascinating,

	1:51:44.480 --> 1:51:46.440
	really difficult technical challenges under the rug,

	1:51:46.440 --> 1:51:48.360
	like assuming it's possible

	1:51:48.360 --> 1:51:51.160
	to do the mapping of the nerve endings, then...

	1:51:51.160 --> 1:51:52.000
	I wish, yeah, I saw that.

	1:51:52.000 --> 1:51:53.800
	The way they did it with the little like stim unit

	1:51:53.800 --> 1:51:55.400
	on the head, that'd be amazing.

	1:51:56.800 --> 1:51:58.760
	So, well, no, no, on a shallow level,

	1:51:58.760 --> 1:52:01.640
	like you could set up like almost a brothel

	1:52:01.640 --> 1:52:05.160
	with like real dolls and Oculus quests,

	1:52:05.160 --> 1:52:06.200
	write some good software.

	1:52:06.200 --> 1:52:08.280
	I think it'd be a cool novelty experience.

	1:52:09.280 --> 1:52:11.400
	But no, on a deeper, like emotional level.

	1:52:12.800 --> 1:52:16.960
	I mean, yeah, I would really like to fall in love

	1:52:16.960 --> 1:52:18.120
	with the machine.

	1:52:18.120 --> 1:52:23.120
	Do you see yourself having a long term relationship

	1:52:23.120 --> 1:52:27.520
	of the kind monogamous relationship that we have now

	1:52:27.520 --> 1:52:31.360
	with the robot, with the AI system, even?

	1:52:31.360 --> 1:52:32.680
	Not even just the robot.

	1:52:32.680 --> 1:52:37.680
	So, I think about maybe my ideal future.

	1:52:38.200 --> 1:52:43.200
	When I was 15, I read Eliezer Yudkowsky's early writings

	1:52:44.320 --> 1:52:49.120
	on the singularity and like that AI

	1:52:49.120 --> 1:52:53.040
	is going to surpass human intelligence massively.

	1:52:53.040 --> 1:52:55.480
	He made some Moore's law based predictions

	1:52:55.480 --> 1:52:57.400
	that I mostly agree with.

	1:52:57.400 --> 1:52:59.360
	And then I really struggled

	1:52:59.360 --> 1:53:01.360
	for the next couple of years of my life.

	1:53:01.360 --> 1:53:03.360
	Like, why should I even bother to learn anything?

	1:53:03.360 --> 1:53:06.160
	It's all gonna be meaningless when the machine show up.

	1:53:06.160 --> 1:53:07.000
	Right.

	1:53:07.000 --> 1:53:10.520
	Well, maybe when I was that young,

	1:53:10.520 --> 1:53:12.040
	I was still a little bit more pure

	1:53:12.040 --> 1:53:13.160
	and really like clung to that.

	1:53:13.160 --> 1:53:14.720
	And then I'm like, well, the machine's ain't here yet.

	1:53:14.720 --> 1:53:16.800
	You know, and I seem to be pretty good at this stuff.

	1:53:16.800 --> 1:53:18.520
	Let's try my best, you know,

	1:53:18.520 --> 1:53:20.320
	like what's the worst that happens?

	1:53:20.320 --> 1:53:23.440
	But the best possible future I see

	1:53:23.440 --> 1:53:26.120
	is me sort of merging with the machine.

	1:53:26.120 --> 1:53:28.120
	And the way that I personify this

	1:53:28.120 --> 1:53:30.800
	is in a longterm and augments relationship with the machine.

	1:53:32.160 --> 1:53:33.320
	Oh, you don't think there's room

	1:53:33.320 --> 1:53:35.040
	for another human in your life

	1:53:35.040 --> 1:53:37.440
	if you really truly merge with another machine?

	1:53:38.440 --> 1:53:40.240
	I mean, I see merging.

	1:53:40.240 --> 1:53:44.240
	I see like the best interface to my brain

	1:53:45.520 --> 1:53:48.000
	is like the same relationship interface

	1:53:48.000 --> 1:53:49.320
	to merge with an AI, right?

	1:53:49.320 --> 1:53:51.440
	What does that merging feel like?

	1:53:52.440 --> 1:53:55.320
	I've seen couples who've been together for a long time

	1:53:55.320 --> 1:53:57.840
	and like, I almost think of them as one person.

	1:53:57.840 --> 1:54:01.280
	Like couples who spend all their time together and...

	1:54:01.280 --> 1:54:02.120
	That's fascinating.

	1:54:02.120 --> 1:54:03.320
	You're actually putting,

	1:54:03.320 --> 1:54:05.520
	what does that merging actually looks like?

	1:54:05.520 --> 1:54:07.600
	It's not just a nice channel.

	1:54:07.600 --> 1:54:11.640
	Like a lot of people imagine it's just an efficient link,

	1:54:11.640 --> 1:54:13.800
	search link to Wikipedia or something.

	1:54:13.800 --> 1:54:14.640
	I don't believe in that.

	1:54:14.640 --> 1:54:17.120
	But it's more, you're saying that there's the same kind of,

	1:54:17.120 --> 1:54:19.520
	the same kind of relationship you have with another human

	1:54:19.520 --> 1:54:22.960
	as a deep relationship is that's what merging looks like.

	1:54:22.960 --> 1:54:24.480
	That's pretty...

	1:54:24.480 --> 1:54:26.680
	I don't believe that link is possible.

	1:54:26.680 --> 1:54:28.120
	I think that that link, so you're like,

	1:54:28.120 --> 1:54:30.160
	oh, I'm gonna download Wikipedia right to my brain.

	1:54:30.160 --> 1:54:33.360
	My reading speed is not limited by my eyes.

	1:54:33.360 --> 1:54:36.800
	My reading speed is limited by my inner processing loop.

	1:54:36.800 --> 1:54:38.680
	And to like bootstrap that

	1:54:38.680 --> 1:54:42.440
	sounds kind of unclear how to do it and horrifying.

	1:54:42.440 --> 1:54:46.560
	But if I am with somebody, and I'll use somebody

	1:54:46.560 --> 1:54:51.400
	who is making a super sophisticated model of me

	1:54:51.400 --> 1:54:53.200
	and then running simulations on that model,

	1:54:53.200 --> 1:54:54.120
	I'm not gonna get into the question

	1:54:54.120 --> 1:54:55.880
	whether the simulations are conscious or not.

	1:54:55.880 --> 1:54:58.240
	I don't really wanna know what it's doing.

	1:54:58.240 --> 1:55:01.600
	But using those simulations to play out hypothetical futures

	1:55:01.600 --> 1:55:04.880
	for me, deciding what things to say to me

	1:55:04.880 --> 1:55:08.720
	to guide me along a path and that's how I envision it.

	1:55:08.720 --> 1:55:13.720
	So on that path to AI of super human level intelligence,

	1:55:13.720 --> 1:55:15.680
	you've mentioned that you believe in the singularity,

	1:55:15.680 --> 1:55:17.280
	that singularity is coming.

	1:55:17.280 --> 1:55:20.440
	Again, could be trolling, could be not, could be part...

	1:55:20.440 --> 1:55:21.760
	All trolling has truth in it.

	1:55:21.760 --> 1:55:22.840
	I don't know what that means anymore.

	1:55:22.840 --> 1:55:24.520
	What is the singularity?

	1:55:24.520 --> 1:55:26.720
	So yeah, so that's really the question.

	1:55:26.720 --> 1:55:29.280
	How many years do you think before the singularity

	1:55:29.280 --> 1:55:30.920
	of what form do you think it will take?

	1:55:30.920 --> 1:55:34.200
	Does that mean fundamental shifts in capabilities of AI?

	1:55:34.200 --> 1:55:36.960
	Does it mean some other kind of ideas?

	1:55:36.960 --> 1:55:40.120
	Maybe that's just my roots, but...

	1:55:40.120 --> 1:55:42.920
	So I can buy a human being's worth of computers

	1:55:42.920 --> 1:55:46.000
	for things worth of compute for like a million bucks a day.

	1:55:46.000 --> 1:55:47.800
	It's about one TPU pod V3.

	1:55:47.800 --> 1:55:50.240
	I want like, I think they claim a hundred pay to flops.

	1:55:50.240 --> 1:55:51.080
	That's being generous.

	1:55:51.080 --> 1:55:52.320
	I think humans are actually more like 20.

	1:55:52.320 --> 1:55:53.160
	So that's like five humans.

	1:55:53.160 --> 1:55:54.040
	That's pretty good.

	1:55:54.040 --> 1:55:55.560
	Google needs to sell their TPUs.

	1:55:56.840 --> 1:55:58.640
	But no, I could buy GPUs.

	1:55:58.640 --> 1:56:02.280
	I could buy a stack of like, I buy 1080TIs,

	1:56:02.280 --> 1:56:03.880
	build data center full of them.

	1:56:03.880 --> 1:56:07.280
	And for a million bucks, I can get a human worth of compute.

	1:56:08.160 --> 1:56:12.280
	But when you look at the total number of flops in the world,

	1:56:12.280 --> 1:56:14.400
	when you look at human flops,

	1:56:14.400 --> 1:56:17.040
	which goes up very, very slowly with the population,

	1:56:17.040 --> 1:56:19.760
	and machine flops, which goes up exponentially,

	1:56:19.760 --> 1:56:22.360
	but it's still nowhere near.

	1:56:22.360 --> 1:56:24.040
	I think that's the key thing

	1:56:24.040 --> 1:56:25.880
	to talk about when the singularity happened.

	1:56:25.880 --> 1:56:28.560
	When most flops in the world are silicon

	1:56:28.560 --> 1:56:32.280
	and not biological, that's kind of the crossing point.

	1:56:32.280 --> 1:56:35.480
	Like they are now the dominant species on the planet.

	1:56:35.480 --> 1:56:38.720
	And just looking at how technology is progressing,

	1:56:38.720 --> 1:56:40.360
	when do you think that could possibly happen?

	1:56:40.360 --> 1:56:41.680
	Do you think it would happen in your lifetime?

	1:56:41.680 --> 1:56:43.640
	Oh yeah, definitely in my lifetime.

	1:56:43.640 --> 1:56:44.480
	I've done the math.

	1:56:44.480 --> 1:56:47.560
	I like 2038 because it's the UNIX timestamp roll over.

	1:56:49.920 --> 1:56:51.840
	Yeah, beautifully put.

	1:56:52.680 --> 1:56:57.680
	So you've said that the meaning of life is to win.

	1:56:58.000 --> 1:56:59.560
	If you look five years into the future,

	1:56:59.560 --> 1:57:01.000
	what does winning look like?

	1:57:02.640 --> 1:57:03.720
	So...

	1:57:03.720 --> 1:57:08.720
	I can go into technical depth to what I mean by that, to win.

	1:57:11.720 --> 1:57:12.720
	It may not mean...

	1:57:12.720 --> 1:57:14.400
	I was criticized for that in the comments.

	1:57:14.400 --> 1:57:17.720
	Like, doesn't this guy want to save the penguins in Antarctica?

	1:57:17.720 --> 1:57:20.960
	Or like, oh man, listen to what I'm saying.

	1:57:20.960 --> 1:57:23.720
	I'm not talking about like I have a yacht or something.

	1:57:24.720 --> 1:57:26.720
	I am an agent.

	1:57:26.720 --> 1:57:28.720
	I am put into this world.

	1:57:28.720 --> 1:57:32.720
	And I don't really know what my purpose is.

	1:57:33.720 --> 1:57:36.720
	But if you're a reinforcement, if you're an intelligent agent

	1:57:36.720 --> 1:57:39.720
	and you're put into a world, what is the ideal thing to do?

	1:57:39.720 --> 1:57:41.720
	Well, the ideal thing, mathematically,

	1:57:41.720 --> 1:57:43.720
	you can go back to like Schmidt Hoover theories about this,

	1:57:43.720 --> 1:57:46.720
	is to build a compressive model of the world.

	1:57:46.720 --> 1:57:49.720
	To build a maximally compressive to explore the world

	1:57:49.720 --> 1:57:52.720
	such that your exploration function maximizes

	1:57:52.720 --> 1:57:55.720
	the derivative of compression of the past.

	1:57:55.720 --> 1:57:58.720
	Schmidt Hoover has a paper about this.

	1:57:58.720 --> 1:58:01.720
	And like, I took that kind of as like a personal goal function.

	1:58:02.720 --> 1:58:04.720
	So what I mean to win, I mean like,

	1:58:04.720 --> 1:58:08.720
	maybe this is religious, but like I think that in the future

	1:58:08.720 --> 1:58:10.720
	I might be given a real purpose.

	1:58:10.720 --> 1:58:12.720
	Or I may decide this purpose myself.

	1:58:12.720 --> 1:58:14.720
	And then at that point, now I know what the game is

	1:58:14.720 --> 1:58:15.720
	and I know how to win.

	1:58:15.720 --> 1:58:18.720
	I think right now I'm still just trying to figure out what the game is.

	1:58:18.720 --> 1:58:19.720
	But once I know...

	1:58:20.720 --> 1:58:22.720
	So you have...

	1:58:22.720 --> 1:58:25.720
	You have imperfect information.

	1:58:25.720 --> 1:58:27.720
	You have a lot of uncertainty about the reward function

	1:58:27.720 --> 1:58:28.720
	and you're discovering it.

	1:58:28.720 --> 1:58:29.720
	Exactly.

	1:58:29.720 --> 1:58:30.720
	But the purpose is...

	1:58:30.720 --> 1:58:31.720
	That's a better way to put it.

	1:58:31.720 --> 1:58:33.720
	The purpose is to maximize it

	1:58:33.720 --> 1:58:36.720
	while you have a lot of uncertainty around it.

	1:58:36.720 --> 1:58:38.720
	And you're both reducing the uncertainty

	1:58:38.720 --> 1:58:40.720
	and maximizing at the same time.

	1:58:40.720 --> 1:58:43.720
	And so that's at the technical level.

	1:58:43.720 --> 1:58:44.720
	What is the...

	1:58:44.720 --> 1:58:46.720
	If you believe in the universal prior,

	1:58:46.720 --> 1:58:48.720
	what is the universal reward function?

	1:58:48.720 --> 1:58:50.720
	That's the better way to put it.

	1:58:50.720 --> 1:58:53.720
	So that win is interesting.

	1:58:53.720 --> 1:58:56.720
	I think I speak for everyone in saying that

	1:58:56.720 --> 1:59:01.720
	I wonder what that reward function is for you.

	1:59:01.720 --> 1:59:06.720
	And I look forward to seeing that in five years and ten years.

	1:59:06.720 --> 1:59:09.720
	I think a lot of people including myself are cheering you on, man.

	1:59:09.720 --> 1:59:11.720
	So I'm happy you exist.

	1:59:11.720 --> 1:59:13.720
	And I wish you the best of luck.

	1:59:13.720 --> 1:59:14.720
	Thanks for talking today, man.

	1:59:14.720 --> 1:59:15.720
	Thank you.

	1:59:15.720 --> 1:59:20.720
	This was a lot of fun.