Newsgroup: it.hobby.enigmi
Titolo: [BRI} Probabilità che variano

Nel gioco del bridge ci sono alcune regole che derivano da calcoli già
fatti. Una di queste dice che con 9 carte capeggiate da A e K ed
avendo il J si batte anziché fare l'impasse perché la probabilità che
la Q sia seconda è maggiore di quella di trovarla dalla parte
"giusta".
Io l'altro giorno stavo giocando ed avevo 8 carte con AKJ, ma prima
che potessi battere ho subito un taglio.
La domanda è questa: se prima del taglio era più conveniente per me
fare l'impasse, dopo il taglio diveniva più conveniente battere?
ciao,
margravio

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Ciao margravio!
Se il taglio l'hai subito subito :-), è probabile che chi ha tagliato
abbia più di 3 atout... In ogni caso si può ipotizzare che chi ha
tagliato abbia più atout del compagno e questo fa aumentare la
probabilità che sia lui ad avere la Q. Io gliela battezzerei in mano e
tenterei l'impasse se è dalla parte giusta, altrimenti si batte.
Tutto senza calcoli, eh... :-)
Ciao.
Giorgio

fare l'impasse, dopo il taglio diveniva più conveniente battere?
Questa e' una domanda che si dirama, nel senso che non si
puo' rispondere in modo semplice.
Perche': e' vero che le probabilita' non cambiano, ma e'
vero anche Bayes, ed e' anche vero che in ogni caso bisogna
mettere in conto tutta la situazione della mano, non solo
il colore d'atout.
-- 
Saluti, Dalet

tenterei l'impasse se è dalla parte giusta, altrimenti si batte.
Io farei il contrario... sempre che non siano polli gli
avversari a cercare un taglio con donna terza d'atout (non
parliamo poi se quarta).
-- 
Saluti, Dalet

Giorgio
ciao,
margravio

il colore d'atout.
Ho capito, ora mi vado a guardare cosa dice Bayes (io d'intuito ho
pensato al dilemma di Monty Hall).
Ma perché con donna terza non conviene tagliare (e questo lo posso
capire, ma vorrei me lo spiegassi meglio, perché comunque le prese
sono una sola: forse perché si fanno sprecare più atout all'avversario
per eliminartele?) e *non parliamo poi* di donna quarta: cioè se la
donna è quarta ho *ancora meno* convenienza a tagliare? Perché?
Ciao, grazie
ciao,
margravio


Ciao margravio,
in realtà non avevo assolutamente considerato che tu ti fossi
attardato a fare altre manovre prima di battere le atout. Il "se" non
era dubitativo, ma solo per introdurre il discorso. Il mio sorriso era
legato alle parole "subito subito", che l'ortografia non impone di
accentare ma che vanno intese come "subìto sùbito"... :-)
Riguardo all'osservazione di Dalet, sono anch'io perplesso sulla
opportunità di proteggere la Q rinunciando a un taglio sicuro. Per
quanto si sa (senza conoscere né le proprie carte, né quelle del
morto), tagliando, c'è anche la remotissima possibilità di rientrare
in mano al compagno per un secondo taglio.
Comunque, dicci, questa Q chi ce l'aveva e come era messa?
Ciao
Giorgio

Comunque, dicci, questa Q chi ce l'aveva e come era messa
Avevano tagliato con l'atout secco: dopo ho avuto buon gioco a
catturare la Q terza dalla parte giusta per me, battendo in testa l'A,
vedendo la distribuzione e procedendo poi all'impasse.
ciao,
margravio

donna č quarta ho *ancora meno* convenienza a tagliare? Perché?
Be' non e' che sia una cosa scientifica e poi dipende dalla
mano, pero' ad esempio per un parziale o una manche io non
attaccherei MAI per cercare tagli... e addirittura con donna
quarta SEMPRE per il fuorigioco, cioe' sulla mia lunga.
-- 
Saluti, Dalet

is a remedy. They had their remedy
    from the first in China proper. Well, a remedy in the Mandarin
    Court, where the longest purse prevails, and into which a poor man
    seldom dares to enter a complaint."
    "Lastly, it is said that the lot of these children is far happier
    than if they had been left to their ordinary fate. So say these
    Chinese gentlemen; so said the noble and wealthy, the much
    respected slave trader and holder, a century ago in England. The
    answer to him then is the only answer for these Chinese gentlemen.
    It is a long one which presents itself to everyone who has studied
    the slavery and the slave-trade question. Besides this long
    argumentative answer, one question must be answered:--Is it right
    to do or sanction wrong that good may come?"
    "A very long time has elapsed since I received your letter
    forwarding that dispatch [containing the request of the Secretary
    of State for the Chief Justice to state his views as to Dr.
    Eitel's repre

Colonies, "whether his
attention has been directed to a recent outrage committed ... at Hong
Kong, which is now forming the subject of inquiry by a Commission
appointed by the Governor. And if he will cause special investigation
to be made as to the manner in which the revenue derived from
licensing houses of ill-fame is raised and expended for the service of
the Colony."
In answer to this question, the Commission reported that, "the monies
raised both by the licenses from houses of ill-fame, and from the
fines inflicted under the provisions of these Ordinances, have been
expended in the general services of the Colony; and that the actual
revenue derived from this source, since and including 1857 down to
the end of 1877, amounted to $187,508, to which must be added the
Admiralty allowance from 1870 to 1877, amounting to $28,860, and fines
estimated at $5,000, making a total of $221,368.00."
After July 1st, 1878, the fund derived from brothels was used for the
operation of the provisions of the Contagious Diseases Ordinance only.
Later, on July 28, 1882, Governor Hennessy received in London a large
deputation of gentlemen interested i

management
of "capitalists"--Chinese merchants of large means.
We have made a general statement as to abuses; now for some specified
details. Sometimes the inspectors took their turn as informers, and
often men of higher official rank did so, even to the Registrar
General himself. In 1868, Inspectors Peterson and Jamieson visited
houses as informers, dressed in plain clothes. Jamieson went once
disguised as a soldier. Inspectors Burns, Sieir and Deane were also
employed as informers, this year. In one case, a woman escaped the
persecution of an informer who had intruded into her house by means of
ladder; in another case, a woman risked her life getting out of the
window upon a flimsy shade adjusted to keep the sun out; in another,
a woman managed to escape to the roof; one poor creature let herself
down to the ground from an upper window by means of a spout. When
women were ready to take such risks as these (and undoubtedly the
official records would mention only a few such cases out of the many)
rather than be compelled to keep open houses of prostitution, one
would have thought it would have counted as some proof of the
respectable character of the women,--but it does not seem to have been
reckoned so. The women were generally driven into the business of
keeping an open house of prostitution anyway, and the Government
benefited in cash by just so much more.
"It may be mentioned here," says the report of the Commission, from
which we cull these cases, "that from this date (July 6th, 1868) the
practice has apparently prevailed of apprehending all the women found
in unlicensed brothels" (in more correct language, those houses
penetrated into by informers and reported to the Registrar as
brothels). These accusations were not always true, by any means. Seven
women were apprehended at one time during this year, on the charge of
a watchman, that they kept and were inmates of an unlicensed brothel,
"the chief witness being a child 10 years old ... five of the women
were married, 

for she was no willing slave. When rescued
    she was horribly diseased. Three days before her rescue, the
    Chief of Police and an interpreter had gone through the house
    questioning every inmate as to whether they wished to lead a life
    of shame or not. She was asked the question in the presence of the
    brothel-keeper, the head mistress, and all the girls. She had been
    told beforehand, "If you dare say you want to escape, we will kill
    you." The Chief of Police had it announced in the papers that
    he had made this investigation, and that no slaves existed in
    Chinatown. Immediately after his visit, she was removed to a
    family house, lest her rescue might be effected, and one man and
    two women set to watch her day and night. She feigned willingness
    to lead a bad life, and the two women, lulled into a sense of
    security, turned aside to gossip, while the man dropped off
    asleep. She suddenly rushed out of the house, and but for the
    quick wit and good offices of the colored girl might have missed
    the way to a safe harbor.
The following are cases of rescue reported from the Mission Home of
the Occidental Board of Missions of the Presbyterian Church:
    No. 1. Qui Que. This little girl was taken from a gambling den
    at Isleton, a small town on the Sacramento river. The woman who
    brought her from China died, and she was thus left to the care of
    this gang of gamblers. When Miss Cameron and her escort arrived at
    the house, the little girl of six or seven years sat on a table
    rolling cigarettes for the men who sat around it gambling. They
    were taken by surprise, and before they quite understood the
    situation the rescuers were gone with the little gi

and looking to his further report. The magistrate should always be
    supported if possible; and if he discharged the woman, and put her
    at the bar as a witness, and she was used again at the Supreme
    Court, it might look like a breach of good faith to treat her now
    as a criminal.... As to the druggist's case, I think that the only
    thing that can be said is that it would look to be a breach of
    faith to proceed against him now."
When the case was referred to the Crown Solicitor, he said:
    "As to the druggist the parties had now left the Colony, and there
    were no witnesses against him. The purchase by Chinese of young
    orphans, and indeed of others whose parents are too poor to keep
    them, is a social custom amongst the natives, and is of constant
    occurrence in Hong Kong. These 'pocket-children,' as they are
    usually termed, are often treated with great affection, and are
    far better off than they were previous to their being so bought."
It was the 30th of May when the Chief Justice called the Governor's
attention to these cases. It was July before the Attorney General and
the Crown Solicitor seem to have paid any attention to the cases. It
was no wonder, then, that some of the witnesses could not be found.
Meanwhile the Governor had left the Colony for a trip to Japan, and
W.H. Marsh was acting in his place. On July 16th, he returned answer
to the Chief Justice that he had now received a report on the cases
from the Attorney General, the committing magistrate and the Crown
Solicitor, and
    "I regret to inform you that ... I do not see my way to directing
    the prosecutions o

1878, Sir Harcourt Johnstone asked in the House of
Commons the Secretary of State for the Colonies, "whether his
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deputation of gentlemen interested in the abolition of the Contagious
Diseases Ordinance of Hong Kong. To these he addressed the following
words descriptive of the condition of things at Hong Kong unearthed by
the Commission:
    "I saw in the Colony abuses existing which have effect far beyond
    the range of Hong Kong. Let me instance one or two only. We get
    from Great Britain some European police. They are men selected
    with care for good conduct, and they are sometimes married men;
    their passages and their wives' passages have been paid to Hong
    Kong, where married police quarters are provided. But what
    transpired when that Commission was held? The Registrar General
    had recorded in his book, morning after morning, the evidenc

of Sir John Smale at Hong Kong
terminated.
CHAPTER 13.
THE EXTENSION OF SLAVERY TO THE STRAITS SETTLEMENT.
We have traced the development of slavery from State-protected brothel
slavery to State-tolerated domestic slavery and "adoption" of boys.
Now we turn to Singapore, to find that all these forms of slavery
exist there under the British flag, with the addition of a
coolie-traffic dangerously like slavery, also, and they are all
under the management of the Registrar General, or "Protector of the
Chinese," as he is always called at the Straits. For the general
description of conditions in the Straits Settlements, more especially
at Singapore, we give in full a paper read by an Englishman, a
resident of Singapore for many years, at the Annual Conference of
American Methodist Missionaries, held in Singapore in 1894,--a paper
which was endorsed by that body:
    It has come to be almost universally acknowledged that Singapore
    is indebted as much to Chinese as to British enterprise for its
    present commercial prosperity, and therefore the subject of
    Chinese labour which is vexing America and Australia,