Newsgroup: it.sport.calcio.milan
Titolo: [ot] la vittoria di obama

vista da un punto di vista europeo
 
se 4 anni fa aveva trionfato per aver fatto sognare, a sto giro ha vinto 
prospettando un incubo, quello della vittoria di romney
 
se quello di 4 anni fa era un voto pieno di speranze, questo appare più 
disincantato, pragmatico
 
-- 
 
 
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 disincantato, pragmatico
 
vedi che a volte ti quoto?
 
-- 
Matteo
 
http://tinyurl.com/nonpossiamo
 
 

un po' banale come analisi, no? :-)
chi ha davero spostato gli equilibri per esempio in stati repubblicani 
come virginia o nevada sono le minoranze, d'altronde obama ha fatto una 
legge per gli immigrati mentre i repubblicani nelle primarie parlavano 
di immigrazione in un modo che avrebbe fatto rabbrividire borghezio 
(perchï¿œ il loro target ï¿œ una classe bianca sia ricca che povera e poco 
istruita)
se queste minoranze (che generalmente votano poco) prendono l'abitudine 
di andare a votare potrebbero ricreare una maggioranza strutturale ai 
democratici (come quella che c'ï¿œ stata dalla depressione agli anni 
'80), detto questo ï¿œ molto probabile che tra 4 anni avremo un 
presidente repubblicano
 
 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2012/11/07/why-obama-won-hispanics-millenials-were-the-difference-makers/
 
 
Why Obama Won: Hispanics, Millenials Were The Difference
 
President Obama won re-election primarily because he did so well with 
two key, and expanding, constituencies: Hispanics and members of the 
Millennial Generation. Throughout the campaign, Democratic pundits 
predicted that these two groups would be the key difference makers. 
They were right.
Let’s start with Hispanics, arguably the biggest deciders in this 
election. Exit polling shows Obama winning this group — which gave up 
to two-fifths of their vote to George Bush — by over two to one. In 
2008, Obama improved his winning margin with Latino voters from 67% in 
2008 to 69% in 2012. And for the first time they represented 10% of the 
overall electorate.
Obama and the Democrats went after this constituency hard, taking some 
risks along the way of sparking a backlash among whites. Obama’s move 
to not deport young illegals if they came to this country as a child 
and met certain other criteria blurred any negative impact from a still 
weak economy. In contrast, Romney’s platform of more or less making 
life so horrible that illegals leave canceled out all of the GOP 
candidate’s credible economic and social proposals that might have 
appealed to this group.
To this Republican political malpractice there is an even greater 
threat: the loss of younger voters. According to CNN exit polls, 
millennials voted for Obama 60% to 36% and accounted for 19% of all 
voters, up from 17% in 2008. Although white male millennials turned 
slightly less enthusiastic, the President’s huge margin among white 
women as well as minority millennials — roughly 40 percent of this huge 
generation — more than made up the difference.
Why did this happen? Generational theorists Mike Hais and Morley 
Winograd attribute this to several factors. One is the intrinsic 
optimism of millennials, even in the face of very difficult economic 
challenges. This blunted Romney’s main argument. Other issues such as 
gay marriage, favored by most millennials, as well as a more tolerant 
attitude toward immigration drove them away from the GOP and towards 
the President.
When you combine millennials and minorities, especially Hispanics, the 
road to recovery for Republicans gets more and more difficult. If you 
win close to 60% of the white vote and lose the electoral college 
decisively, you are heading into very difficult territory. In addition, 
Hais and Winograd note, there are other constituencies — women, 
particularly singles as well as those with graduate degrees broke 
strongly for the President.
Together, they conclude, these groups constitute what they describe as 
a “21st Century Democratic majority coalition for the next few decades 
at least.”
So where does this leave the now hapless GOP? Certainly they can’t 
blame evangelicals and white working-class voters who, for the most 
part, rallied to their cause. The problem now is based in history and 
demographics. The old Reagan coalition– as has been evident here in 
California for a decade — is literally too old, and too white, to 
overcome the combination of minorities, millennials and educated 
professionals that Hais and Winograd have identified.
What should the Republicans do now? They certainly will need to move 
away from the immigrant-bashing that cost them dearly among the key 
ascendant voting blocs of millennials and Hispanics. They will also 
have to turn their family friendly message into something more 
positive; Romney’s tragedy was to embrace Rick Santorum’s views on 
issues of gay marriage and contraception instead of embracing family, 
which is a core value among millennials.