Newsgroup: it.economia.investire
Titolo: Re: Hong Kong Bans AUSTRALIAN GOLD SHARES TRADING

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Newcrest told: time's up
JOHN PHACEAS
Newcrest Mining's two-day sharemarket losses crashed through the $1 billion
mark yesterday as analysts warned their patience with Australia's biggest
gold miner was running out after its warning that fresh problems at the
massive Telfer mine would again cost millions in lost profits.
After Thursday's bloodbath, when nearly $750 million was wiped from the
company's worth as its shares plunged more than 9 per cent, the stock
yesterday slumped another $1.19 to $20.89.
The 5.4 per cent plunge wiped another $400 million off Newcrest's market
value, which fell below $7 billion for the first time since December. The
company is now valued at $6.95 billion, almost $2.1 billion less than at the
start of the month when the stock peaked at $27.20.
This week's falls come in the wake of the company's warning on Thursday that
continued metallurgical problems at the $1.4 billion Telfer project in the
Pilbara would cut production by at least 100,000 ounces of gold this year,
and that customers were unhappy with the high levels of impurities in copper
concentrate from the mine.
Adding to the bad news, Newcrest also revealed respected managing director
Tony Palmer wanted to quit around the time of his 60th birthday in the
middle of the year, and that its massive hedge book was more than $1.34
billion in the red at the end of December.
Coming in the wake of more than $200 million in cost overruns at Telfer and
Mr Palmer's public assurances last month that rumours of ongoing processing
problems were untrue, analysts said yesterday Newcrest's credibility was
almost in tatters.
"We feel the market has lost confidence and patience in the 'just around the
corner story'," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Ian Preston said in a research
note. "It is hard to see Newcrest outperforming without positive catalysts
and we fail to see any in the near future."
Mr Preston said Mr Palmer's impending exit also left a major void that would
need to be filled quickly.
That theme was echoed by investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston.
"Board credibility (has been) severely tested," CSFB analyst Michael
Slifirski said in a client note. "Having restated the acceptability of
Telfer's 800,000oz production target on January 30, the sudden downgrade has
not been adequately explained."
Mr Slifirski noted that Newcrest had now gone through four managing
directors and two acting chief executives since the redevelopment of Telfer
was first proposed in the mid-1990s.
Mr Palmer's departure also appeared "premature" given he had previously
indicated his intention to remain on board until Telfer was completed and
running smoothly.
Broker Bell Potter warned investors to "remain cautious" until Telfer began
performing to expectations, especially given that Newcrest's net debt was
now more than $1.67 billion and gearing levels were above 50 per cent.
Still, StockResource co-founder Grant Craighead said investors needed to
remember Telfer was a 40-year project and that the current problems should
be behind it within one to two years.
"There are plenty of challenges in the immediate future, but they will
diminish over time, so what you end up with is a very long-life, large-scale
asset," he said.
"We're probably at the maximum point of pain now for the company, so this is
about as tough as it gets and it's actually coming out the other side."
Though the stock appeared expensive above $20 on its short-term prospects,
Mr Craighead said Newcrest remained cheap compared to North American
predators who were no doubt eyeing the company's long-life assets and its
big reserve base.
"So it looks attractive to longer term investors who believe, as we do, that
sooner or later a predator will take it out," he said.

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