Newsgroup: it.politica.pds
Titolo: Iraq war increases terrorism risk

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=9420
Report: Iraq war increases terrorism risk
Governments must learn lessons about post-conflict peacemakin
Compiled by Daily Star staff 
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
War in Iraq has increased the risk of terrorism against the West, at
least for the short term, the International Institute for Strategic
Studies said on Tuesday in its annual report on the world's
militaries.
The IISS has added a section on Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda network to
"The Military Balance," its authoritative yearly defense handbook,
which lists the size and capabilities of the world's armed forces.
"Overall, the risk of terrorism to Westerners and Western assets in
Arab countries appeared to increase after the Iraq war began in March
2003," it concluded.
"With the military invasion and occupation of Iraq, the United States
demonstrated its desire to change the political status quo in the Arab
world to advance American strategic and political interests," it said.
"Accordingly, the Iraq invasion was always likely in the short term to
enhance jihadist recruitment and intensify Al-Qaeda's motivation to
encourage and assist terrorist operations." 
It said about half of Al-Qaeda's 30 top leaders had been killed or
captured since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, but about 20,000 militants
who trained in camps in Afghanistan remain at large with varying
levels of capability and motivation.
The report also concluded that there are up to 1,000 foreign fighters
in Iraq targeting U.S. troops, whose exposure makes them a tempting
target.
"The substantially exposed U.S. military deployment in Iraq presents
Al-Qaeda with perhaps its most attractive 'iconic' target outside U.S.
territory," the report said.
 
While some U.S. officials have said the influx of foreign fighters
into Iraq makes it easier to kill them because they are concentrated
in a smaller area, the institute's report said "the 1,000 estimated to
be in Iraq is a minute fraction of its Al-Qaeda's potential strength."
The report said last year's invasion of Iraq was a success, but that
the occupation afterward was flawed.
"In the post-conflict phase and in peace-support operations, the
'hearts and minds' of a population become the 'territory' that has to
be captured and held," editor Christopher Langton wrote in the
introduction.
"Governments need to realize that such operations are
manpower-intensive, as the human component replaces the weapon system
as the key enabler to success." 
The report also concluded that the United States should learn from
Iraq that it needs more manpower with extra skills adopted to
"post-conflict" situations. Inadequately trained reservists or private
military companies are no substitute for well-trained regular troops.
"Having started with a fast and successful warfighting campaign,
Operation Iraqi Freedom provided some key lessons for the U.S. and its
allies concerning post-conflict operations," the report said.
"Post-conflict and peace-support operations in all their phases are
manpower-intensive and require extra skills in addition to those used
in the warfighting phase - as well as a fast transition from a combat
posture to one which demands that support to the civilian populations
becomes paramount. - Agencies

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