Newsgroup: it.cultura.religioni.cristiani
Titolo: Iraqi war likely to stop Sudanese peace [Africanews]

. Iraqi war likely to stop Sudanese peace: experts
By Cathy Majtenyi
As the government of Sudan and the rebel Sudan Peoples' Liberation
Movement/Army (SPLM/A) head back to the negotiating table in Nairobi,
officials and observers are analysing how an U.S.-led war against Iraq
could potentially stall or even stop the Sudan peace talks.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has been stepping up its efforts to win
support to wage a first strike against Iraq, ostensibly to halt
Iraq's
alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction. But the alignment
of powers in the West and Arab world, and the war effort itself, will
spill over into the delicate negotiations for peace in Sudan as well
as Somalia, analysts say.
French Ambassador to Kenya Pierre Jacquemot, whose country vehemently
opposes a war against Iraq, publicly voiced these concerns February
28. He was quoted as saying: "If there is a war, everything will stop.
No more negotiation between the Arab people from the north, and the
Christians from the south. It's just one example of what would
happen
if there was a war in Iraq, and all the good efforts made would stop."
He also wrote a similar commentary in the March 5 edition of The
Nation, Kenya's national newspaper.
Kenyan Foreign Affairs Minister Kalonzo Musyoka subsequently re-stated
Kenya's commitment to the Sudan and Somali peace talks, adding
that
both talks were going well. At a meeting of the Inter-governmental
Authority on Development (IGAD) - which is sponsoring the talks - in
Nairobi March 2, he told journalists: "We don't want to get to
that
now because the war has not taken place. If and when it happens, we
will know what to do."
The first implication of a war against Iraq would be that the Sudan
peace talks - currently receiving a lot of attention from the U.S. due
to strategic, political, and religious considerations, Africa, and the
rest of the world - would take a back seat to the Iraqi war. "This
peace process is very high profile now; if there's a war, it
won't be
as high profile," said Dirdeiry Ahmed, Sudanese Deputy Ambassador to
Kenya.
"Nobody is going to expect any assistance to come to the warring
parties from the international community if the donor countries are
already preoccupied by a major event like that," he said, adding that
the government and the SPLM/A are on the verge of finalising a deal,
and need money and technical support to do so. Without that support,
the talks might stall or stop altogether.
However, both the Sudan government and the SPLM/A could take advantage
of this diversion of the U.S.'s and other countries'
attention away
from the Sudan peace process to achieve their own goals, which could
also stall or stop the negotiations.
On the side of the SPLM/A, the Iraq war could buy time for the full
implementation of the Sudan Peace Act by the U.S. government, Prof.
Cirino Hiteng, a lecturer of international relations and politics at
the United States International University - Africa Campus in Nairobi,
told The East African. Among other things, the legislation imposes
sanctions against the Sudan government if it does not negotiate with
the SPLM/A - a strong recipient of U.S. military aid - in good faith
and come to a settlement with the south.
No longer under the microscope, Sudan government troops could -
despite the presence of outside monitors - attack SPLA positions in
the south, especially in the oil-rich Upper Nile area, and commit
other violations of the ceasefire currently signed between the two
groups, said Hiteng.
"Even the [international] monitors will have nobody listening to them"
as the U.S. and others concentrate on the "body-bag factor" of the
U.S.' military action against Iraq, he said.
The Sudan government could also muster more support for its cause from
Arabic countries by characterising Sudan's civil war as being a
conflict between Muslims and Christians, said Hiteng.
"[The war] will give them the leverage to mobilise the Arab world.
They will now define the southern Sudanese, the fighting forces as
Christians; not as Sudanese, but as proxies of allied forces."
Both Dirdeiry and Dr. Samson Kwaje, spokesperson for the SPLM/A,
denied that an Iraq war would affect relations between north and south
Sudan. "Southern Sudan is not part of the U.S.," said Kwaje. "To link
the issue of southern Sudan to a possible Arab backlash against the
U.S. because of this [war with Iraq] will not be fair at all."
Kwaje said that a possible war against Iraq and the Sudan conflict are
"absolutely different. That one [Iraq] is disarmament; this is a civil
war and the approach is different." He felt that the Sudan government
was not involved with preparations for war against Iraq.
However, Kwaje noted that there had been a rumour going around that,
as far back as the late 1990s, Sudan has been safekeeping chemical and
other weapons for Iraq.
"If the Government of Sudan torpedoes the peace talks because of Iraq,
then it confirms our fears that they have a link; otherwise, it [the
war] should have nothing to do with the talks," he said.
If the U.S. was to wage war against Iraq, the Sudan government could
potentially be caught in the middle. On the one hand, the Sudan
government is trying to maintain good relations with the U.S. for
several reasons, including the Sudan Peace Act and the removal of
Sudan from the U.S. government's list of terrorist countries and
the
wooing of American oil firms to the Sudanese oil fields.
On the other hand, by Sudan's membership in the Arab League, "I
think
the idea of asking us to support any action against Iraq is completely
out of the question," said Dirdeiry. The siding of Sudan with Iraq
could potentially antagonise the U.S.
But, in fact, this seeming quandary may actually be minimal or non-
existent. "There isn't very much hostility against the government
of
Sudan as such," said Dr. Moustafa Hassouna, lecturer at the University
of Nairobi's Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies.
"There seems to be this feeling by many in the Bush administration
that the time has come to do business with the Sudan government,"
despite a powerful "missionary" lobby pressuring the U.S. government
to be tough on the Sudanese government, said Hassouna, who had just
returned from Washington, where he discussed Sudan and other issues
with the U.S. Sub-Committee on the Middle East.
Hassouna noted that the U.S. imports US$50 million per month of gum
arabica - used in colas and pharmaceuticals - from Sudan. The U.S.
also wants to sell agricultural machinery to Sudan, as well as get in
on the oil activity.
Also strengthening the Sudan government's relationship to the
U.S. is
the way it co-operated with the U.S. government in the hunt for
terrorists after the September 11 attack against the twin towers, said
Hassouna.
In the meantime, the Sudan government "is happy to hide behind the
umbrella" of the Arab League and African Union and repeat the
group's
opinion of a war against Iraq.
Rather, those in Washington are increasingly "shifting the whole
burden of change" onto the SPLM/A and will pressure the SPLM/A to
"stop making funny demands, like we want a secular Khartoum," said
Hassouna. There is the increasingly feeling in Washington that SPLM/A
leader John Garang "is not serious about peace."
The Sudan government and SPLM/A came back to Nairobi March 4 for two
weeks to discuss Abyei, the Nuba Mountains, and the Southern Blue
Nile. The three conflict areas technically fall within the boundaries
of north Sudan, but the SPLM/A is pushing for the right of those areas
to be able to chose whether to stay with the north or fall within the
boundaries of south Sudan.
This session, headed by Kenyan mediator Lazaro Sumbeiywo, is being
conducted outside of the regular, IGAD-led talks. Those talks are
expected to resume March 19.
ENDS
-- 
MOTHERS OF THE DISAPPEARED 
Midnight, our sons and daughters
Were cut down and taken from us
Hear their heartbeat
We hear their heartbeat
In the wind
We hear their laughter
In the rain
We see their tears
Hear their heartbeat
We hear their heartbeat
Night hangs like a prisoner
Stretched over black and blue
Hear their heartbeat
We hear their heartbeat
In the trees
Our sons stand naked
Through the walls
Our daughters cry
See their tears in the rainfall


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