Newsgroup: it.discussioni.misteri
Titolo: I giocatori d'azzardo sono più impulsivi e 'vedono' patterns dove non ce ne sono

Date: April 29, 2015
Source: Springer Science+Business Media
Summary: Gamblers are more impulsive and "see" more illusory patterns 
where there are none, a new study finds. Pathological gamblers "see" 
patterns in things that are actually quite random and not really there, 
to such a degree that they are quite willing to impulsively bet good 
money on such illusory nonrandomness.
 
Pathological gamblers "see" patterns in things that are actually quite 
random and not really there, to such a degree that they are quite 
willing to impulsively bet good money on such illusory nonrandomness. 
This is confirmed by Wolfgang Gaissmaier of the University of Konstanz 
in Germany and Andreas Wilke of Clarkson University in the USA, leaders 
of a study in Springer's Journal of Gambling Studies that sheds light 
on why some people are gamblers and others not.
 
The findings of the study add to a large body of research that suggests 
that cognitive distortions (or people's warped thinking), play an 
important role in pathological gambling. It provides further evidence 
for the assumption that gamblers are particularly prone to perceiving 
illusory patterns and are more impulsive than others.
 
Gaissmaier and Wilke's team focused on probability matching, an anomaly 
of choice that is related to the perception of illusory patterns. In a 
laboratory setting, the researchers compared the betting habits of 91 
habitual gamblers against 70 community members. Participants were shown 
a picture of a casino and two slot machines and had to predict on many 
trials whether a coin would be obtained from the slot machine on the 
right or the left. The probability of winning was higher on one slot 
machine (67 percent winning chance) than on the other (33 percent 
winning chance), and the order of outcomes was completely random.
 
The best thing one can do in this task is to always bet on the better 
slot machine, which yields an expected accuracy of 67 percent. However, 
many people tend to match their response proportions to the outcome 
probabilities -- they bet on the better slot machine in 67 percent of 
the cases, and on the worse one in 33 percent of the cases.) Such 
'probability matching' only yields an expected accuracy of 55.6 
percent. Previous research has shown that an illusory perception of 
patterns in random sequences fuels probability matching: People have 
the false impression that they "know" in which trials they have to bet 
on which slot machine -- which is of course impossible given the random 
order.
 
The results showed that gamblers demonstrated more probability matching 
behavior and are thus obviously more likely to perceive illusory 
patterns. Gamblers also scored much lower on the cognitive reflection 
task, which measures impulsivity. One question of this task is "A bat 
and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much 
does the ball cost?" The answer 10¢ comes quickly to mind, while the 
correct answer (5¢) requires more thought. That is, one needs to resist 
the impulse to "bet" on the intuitive but wrong answer, and gamblers 
were much less able to do so.
 
Humans are generally very good at detecting actual patterns. However, 
as a side effect of that ability, they also fall prey to seeing 
illusory patterns. Probably everyone who played roulette once knows the 
erroneous feeling that "red" is due after five times "black." Yet, for 
gamblers, this seems to be a particularly pronounced problem. "Our 
results suggest that gamblers are more willing to bet impulsively on 
perceived illusory patterns," says Gaissmaier. "They are overly prone 
to accept random series of events as, in fact, nonrandom -- and 
nonrandom enough to be worth betting on."
 
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150429100937.htm
 
 
Mk
 
-- 
"That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without
evidence."
-- Christopher Hitchens (1949 - 2011)



Nelle scommesse e nell'azzardo non esiste il "pattern". Una scommessa è
una scommessa e basta.
 
Solo laddove si può attuare una "strategia" si può tendere a disegnare
un "pattern"
 
Per divenire però "strateghi" non occorre essere scommettitori (anche
se un utilizzo "mirato" della scommessa aiuta a divenirlo in un tempo
minore)
 
Lo studio sopra (link) parte da premesse sbagliate, come nella norma
succede in tutti gli studi "scientifici" i quali si basano solamente su
criteri "OGGETTIVI".)
 
"L'INDIVIDUO" è colui che sceglie secondo i propri parametri. Alcuni di
loro scommettono (questi io li chiamerei scientisti come quello che è
l'autore della ricerca) ed altri usano strategie dettate dalla propria
esperienza.
 
-- 
[Kufon's soul is back]

 AI) ? Non è una critica, sono solo curioso.
 
non ne ho idea.
 
ma qui non si tratta di riconoscimento automatico, si tratta di 
riconoscimento di pattern che non ci sono.


 propria esperienza.
 
ovviamente questo tipo di esperienza non è la classica esperienza
"scientista" bensì quell'esperienza a cui vanno aggiunte le doti
personali "extrasensoriali" [per i cultori del paranormale]
oppure"sensibilità" [per chi vuol restare in un ambito diciamo
naturale]
 
...è solo per chiarire un concetto chiarissimo ed ovvio ai non
scientisti.
 
:)


scientisti.
 
Quelli che ragionano come te si vendono le figlie per giocare al
videopoker.
 
 
 
 
--
Fabam Cattus 
Voluptatem Officium Est

  :P
 
 
quindi? questo che vuol dire?
 
 
Sappi che laddove non si può stabilire una strategia tutto è scommessa.
Al contrario, dove la strategia si può applicare, la scommessa non
esiste più...
 
Ma il tuo problema patologico è a monte Arne Saku etc etc...
 
Perché, se per uno, tutto è "caso" (relativismo), be allora dovrebbe
reputare se stesso come frutto del caso... o meglio dovrebbe ritenere
se stesso come uno scherzo della natura....
 
Dipende principalmente da te cosa pensi di essere, e non da cosa pensi
tu di cosa possano essere gli altri...
 
 
 :)




certo, certo.... :)


 spiegartelo.
 
ah... andiam bene...
mah... che desolazione....


 viene "proiettato" non sempre si realizza :)
 
per questo non capivo. il problema e' che quando si realizza per loro, 
si realizza a prescindere dal pattern che vedono.
