Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Motivi del crollo

Per cortesia,
c'č un motivo x il crollo della borsa di Shangai di ieri? Cioč, cosa sta
alla base di tutto ciň cui ora assistiamo?
grazie

 grazie
Mi sembra che il motivo sia stata una serie di riforme introdotte dal
governo Cinese in materia di investimenti. Credo...
Il risparmiatore
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Partecipa anche tu al blog sul risparmio:
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 grazie
shanghai ha guadagnato il 20% solo a febbraio (nel giro di un anno è salita 
verticalmente, tipo bolla del 2000-01) : se anche perde il 10% (oggi ha già 
recuperato il 4%) non c è niente da stupirsi.
Leggiti il mio posto delle 18.00 di ieri sera per ulteriori commenti.

RECESSIONE.... In America hanno comprato con dilazioni a 120 mesi tutto ciò
che non serve e ora si incomincia a togliere a questi signori le case
ipotecate..... il boom è previsto per fine anno.. L'uomo verede colpisce
ancora....
La recessione è una situazione macroeconomica caratterizzata da livelli di
attività produttiva più bassi di quelli che si potrebbero ottenere usando
completamente ed in maniera efficiente tutti i fattori produttivi a
disposizione.
Tecnicamente si parla di recessione quando il Prodotto Interno Lordo reale
diminuisce per almeno due trimestri consecutivi.
Sintomi tipici delle fasi di recessione sono la diminuzione del tasso di
crescita della produzione, l'aumento della disoccupazione, la diminuzione
del Tasso di interesse in seguito alla riduzione della domanda di credito da
parte delle imprese, il rallentamento del tasso di inflazione causato dalla
diminuzione della domanda di beni e servizi da parte dei consumatori.
Estratto da "
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recessione
"
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 grazie
Today’s market “correction” was a rather rare event. Since 1951 only 33 out
of 14,650 trading days saw a more severe downturn than today’s 3.5%
decline—the observed likelihood for such an event is 0.2%. In this report,
we analyze the triggers of this event and take a closer look at the impact
and outlook for the main asset classes: equity, fixed income, and currency
markets.
One of the biggest questions on investors’ minds of late has been, When will
we see a correction? Well now we know. As of Monday’s close, equity markets
had enjoyed the longest streak of uninterrupted monthly gains in over a
decade, an advance for eight consecutive months. This all came to a
shuddering halt Tuesday as the flight to safer assets classes ensued. In
late afternoon, we saw a capitulation in equity markets, with the S&P 500
closing 3.5% lower on the day at 1400 and the Dow closing down 3.3%. The
pace of the sell-off had trading floors scrambling to keep up with the
decline as volatility spiked to levels not seen since the early summer
sell-off of 2006.
So what drove the “correction”? Probably an unfortunate confluence of
factors. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s comments on re-cession didn’t
help, but the real catalyst was news of tighter regula-tions in the domestic
Chinese stock market, which subsequently spilled over into Asian, European,
and US trading. Chinese domestic A-shares sold off 9% overnight and most
major European markets closed more than 2% lower. Adding fuel to the fire
and of more meaningful con-cern, US durable orders for January came in much
weaker than ex-pected, accelerating the sell-off.
In hindsight, however, several issues have been simmering under the surface
for some time. Concern over the sub-prime mortgage lending market has been
growing. Moreover, we have enjoyed the longest streak of uninterrupted
monthly gains in over a decade. Markets have increasingly been looking for
this correction and at some stage it be-comes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So where do we go from here? In the short term, the news over the next few
days is not likely to provide much upside. On the economic front, we have
two milestones, or stumbling blocks, ahead: on Wednesday, the revised GDP
for 4Q will be published and on Thurs-day, the ISM for February. Real GDP
will likely be revised down sharply in 4Q06. We expect only 2.2% quarterly
annualized growth, com-pared with the 3.5% initial release. Most of the
revision will stem from net exports and inventories. However, all other data
relevant to the revision, namely retail sales and construction spending,
will also weigh on growth.
The ISM business climate index dropped by 2.1 index points in January to
below the boom-or-bust level of 50. Of this fall, 1 index point was due to
the inventory component, which slid to a very depressed level (39.9). While
the inventory component is likely to stay below 50 in February, a relative
improvement is very likely. Regional business cli-mate indices thus far
point to a lower ISM index on balance. However, the probable snapback in the
inventory components drives our estimate to an increase to 49.8 in February
from 49.3 in January, so we could very well stay below the 50 line, giving
bulls little to hang onto.
Taking a longer term perspective, however, equity markets do not appear to
be overvalued. The issue in China is purely domestic—not an economic issue
that is likely to impact the global economy. We have expected weaker
economic data in the US as the long-anticipated con-sensus view of a
domestic slowdown unfolds, so this should not come as a surprise. The key
question for equities remains the magnitude of the economic slowdown. If, as
we forecast, GDP growth remains posi-tive at around 2% in 2007, any further
sell-off could present a good buying opportunity for equities. We remain
modestly overweigh equi-ties versus bonds in our core asset allocation.
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Inviato via 
http://arianna.libero.it/usenet/

 Todays market correction was a rather rare event.
Scusa ho sbagliato, questo è sulla cina:
China's A-share market takes a hit and the World coughs
The sell-off in China affected the domestic A-share market more severely
than the Hong Kong-listed H-share market. The combi-nation of several
negative rumors might have caused the cor-rection; but the rumors seem weak
to us. We currently have an overweight in China in our global allocation and
we are assessing the situation.
The H-share market, which trades out of Hong Kong and is open to foreign
investors, corrected by much less, only 3%. Since the begin-ning of 2007, we
have seen a decoupling of the domestic and foreign Chinese markets with the
H-share index lagging its domestic counter-part the A and B shares (see
Figure 2). Our strategists in Asia have stated that while the A and B share
market has become expensive, the H-share market is not as expensive and
valuations are in line with fun-damentals. Earnings momentum is likely to
remain strong and expecta-tions do not look exaggerated.
In addition to the sell-off weaker-than-expected durable goods orders in the
US weighed on weakened sentiment and sparked a sell-off in global equity
markets with most major European markets closing lower by more than 2% and
the S&P 500 off by 1.5% in intra-day trading.
Concerns about irrational exuberance in the domestic Chinese stock market
have been growing, with the domestic A & B share index in-creasing 140%
since the beginning of 2006 in local currency, compared with a 23% rise in
global markets. Also, as we have noted, the Chinese consumer price index
(CPI) inflation, which was driven largely by food price increases, came in
at 2.2% year over year in January af-ter a surge of 2.8% y/y in December.
With rising inflationary pressure, booming domestic stock markets, and
further increases in property prices, the Chinese monetary authorities are
becoming seriously concerned about an asset price bubble.
Hence, we see a growing likelihood of monetary tightening in China. This
includes hikes in the reserve requirement ratio or higher interest rates, in
addition to newly announced measures such as investigating bank loans
illegally channeled into stock markets. Nevertheless, given strong and
improving fundamentals, we remain positive on China's stock market H-shares,
but not A or B shares.
Global markets have enjoyed the longest uninterrupted rally in over a decade
since the sell-off early last summer. However speculation has been rising as
to when the next sell-off would occur. With weaker economic data expected
from the US later this week, along with to-day’s sell-off, we may begin to
see some of the heat being taken out of equity market rally. That said, we
continue to view current global valuation levels as fair. Indeed, any
meaningful sell-off could present a good buying opportunity. We remain
modestly overweight global eq-uities versus bonds in our global core asset
allocation.
International shares most directly impacted by the sell-off have been those
with the greatest exposure to the Asian region. However, this is not an
economic-data-driven correction and our economic outlook for the Asian
region remains positive.
As an aside, we believe that the recent sell-off in the Chinese equity
market will have only limited effects in Latin America and Brazil. Contrary
to the past, the region is now deep within a declining debt-to-GDP dynamic
and is no longer exposed to dollar-linked deficit financing. Under these
conditions, there is little risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy developing in
the region and any contagion effects should be short-lived.
We are reviewing our Asian market strategy and will communicate any changes
after it is complete.
Riassumendo: alla luce dell'inflazione che sta un po' crescendo e delle
possibili bolle immobiliare ed azionaria, è probabile che vengano adottate
politiche monetarie più restrittive. Se in un mercato normale una notizia
del genere causa un calo normale, in una borsa che è cresciuta verticalmente
il diffondersi di questo consendo causa una caduta altrettanto repentina.
Cmq l'economia cinese non è certo in recessione (anzi, il problema è
frenarla)...
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