Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: D'uopo è postare....

....il Buffett pensiero. Reiterato appena una settimana fa dalle colonne nel 
NYT:
Se avete della liquidità da destinare all'equity per almeno 5 anni, imho, si 
rischia molto molto poco ora :-)
October 17, 2008
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT, Omaha
The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its 
problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the 
leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will 
rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm 
talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States 
Government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway 
holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking 
attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United 
States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be 
greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, 
gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary 
of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. 
But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound 
companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings 
hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new 
profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of 
the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be 
higher or lower a month - or a year - from now. What is likely, however, is 
that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before 
either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, 
spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on 
July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin 
D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already 
advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when 
things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The 
market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, 
in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the 
economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It 
lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, 
the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive 
military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial 
panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced 
president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money 
during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors 
did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so 
and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. 
They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually 
nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.
Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate 
the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate 
declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, 
probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are 
betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting 
for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: "I 
skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have 
no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow 
the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then 
advertised: "Put your mouth where your money was." Today my money and my 
mouth both say equities.
Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a 
diversified holding company. 

 nel NYT:
"Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements 
of the stock market."
Ciao bello!
Il vecchietto, imho, ha sbagliato anticipando l'entrata.
Cosa di poco conto fra 5 anni...
Ma se si azzeccasse l'ingresso a 18000 o 16500... godremmo come facoceri 
in calore nella taiga...
Avendo offeso il grande vecchio, da fondamentalista mi cospargo il capo 
di cenere con un altro detto:
"Se sei cosě intelligente... come mai non hai fatto i soldi?"
;)
ciao
apuo

 ***probably*** by a substantial degree. (...)
premesso che il discorso di Buffett e' onesto e condivisibile, il punto e' 
tutto qui...

"Nicola Bortolotti" <MIRRORti.ecilaTAtfosbnMIRROR> ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:4905644d$0$1085$4faf...@reader2.news.tin.it...

Ovviamente la certezza non ci può essere. Ma attento, se ci fosse la 
certezza, non ci potrebbero essere nemmeno le ottime occasioni che 
probabilmente ci sono.
Pessimo gioco di parole......ma è la realtà
buondì :-) 

 ;)
A parte che è sicuramente molto più saggio, intelligente ed equilibrato di 
noi (mi permetto il noi ma intendo "me" :-)), il vecio ha avuto la piccola 
fortuna d'incappare nei quattro/cinque decenni di maggior espansione 
economica che la storia dell'uomo ricordi. L'uomo degli anni Venti avrebbe 
mai potuto immaginare di farsi una passeggiata sulla Luna appena 40 anni 
dopo?........per eguagliare le fortune del vecchiardo dovremmo poter aprire 
un mc donald su Marte nel 2050........tutto può essere, ma qualcosa mi dice 
che non se po fà :-)
Buona giornata :-)
P.s.: oggi mi lego al palo per resistere alla tentazione di comperare Basf 
ed Eon....oppure cedo, mò vedo :-)