Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: [OT]Un collasso economico?

Soci�t� G�n�rale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global 
collapse'
Quante brutte notize, no?
Leggiamo, va!
Soci�t� G�n�rale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global 
economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of 
defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. 
In a report entitled "Worst-case debt scenario", the bank's asset team 
said state rescue packages over the last year have merely transferred 
private liabilities onto sagging sovereign shoulders, creating a fresh 
set of problems.
Overall debt is still far too high in almost all rich economies as a 
share of GDP (350pc in the US), whether public or private. It must be 
reduced by the hard slog of "deleveraging", for years. 
"As yet, nobody can say with any certainty whether we have in fact 
escaped the prospect of a global economic collapse," said the 68-page 
report, headed by asset chief Daniel Fermon. It is an exploration of 
the dangers, not a forecast.
Under the French bank's "Bear Case" scenario (the gloomiest of three 
possible outcomes), the dollar would slide further and global equities 
would retest the March lows. Property prices would tumble again. Oil 
would fall back to $50 in 2010.
Governments have already shot their fiscal bolts. Even without fresh 
spending, public debt would explode within two years to 105pc of GDP in 
the UK, 125pc in the US and the eurozone, and 270pc in Japan. Worldwide 
state debt would reach $45 trillion, up two-and-a-half times in a 
decade.
(UK figures look low because debt started from a low base. Mr Ferman 
said the UK would converge with Europe at 130pc of GDP by 2015 under 
the bear case).
The underlying debt burden is greater than it was after the Second 
World War, when nominal levels looked similar. Ageing populations will 
make it harder to erode debt through growth. "High public debt looks 
entirely unsustainable in the long run. We have almost reached a point 
of no return for government debt," it said.
Inflating debt away might be seen by some governments as a lesser of 
evils.
If so, gold would go "up, and up, and up" as the only safe haven from 
fiat paper money. Private debt is also crippling. Even if the US 
savings rate stabilises at 7pc, and all of it is used to pay down debt, 
it will still take nine years for households to reduce debt/income 
ratios to the safe levels of the 1980s.
The bank said the current crisis displays "compelling similarities" 
with Japan during its Lost Decade (or two), with a big difference: 
Japan was able to stay afloat by exporting into a robust global economy 
and by letting the yen fall. It is not possible for half the world to 
pursue this strategy at the same time.
SocGen advises bears to sell the dollar and to "short" cyclical 
equities such as technology, auto, and travel to avoid being caught in 
the "inherent deflationary spiral". Emerging markets would not be 
spared. Paradoxically, they are more leveraged to the US growth than 
Wall Street itself. Farm commodities would hold up well, led by sugar.
Mr Fermon said junk bonds would lose 31pc of their value in 2010 alone. 
However, sovereign bonds would "generate turbo-charged returns" 
mimicking the secular slide in yields seen in Japan as the slump ground 
on. At one point Japan's 10-year yield dropped to 0.40pc. The Fed would 
hold down yields by purchasing more bonds. The European Central Bank 
would do less, for political reasons.
SocGen's case for buying sovereign bonds is controversial. A number of 
funds doubt whether the Japan scenario will be repeated, not least 
because Tokyo itself may be on the cusp of a debt compound crisis.
Mr Fermon said his report had electrified clients on both sides of the 
Atlantic. "Everybody wants to know what the impact will be. A lot of 
hedge funds and bankers are worried," he said. 
-- 
http://cuccona.myminicity.com/
--------------------------
Linux Debian - kernel 2.6.18-4-amd64
_________________________
http://xnews.newsguy.com/

una buona notizia:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji7RvmPeDRs