Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Cinico ma realista...

Stocks Could Rise When Bullets Fly
Sat February 8, 2003 02:57 PM ET
By Haitham Haddadin
NEW YORK (Reuters) - If history is a guide, rockets raining down on Baghdad
could spark a rally on Wall Street.
Macabre as it sounds, stock market rallies have been a consequence of war in
the past. And an attack on Iraq would remove some of the uncertainty that
has clouded the market.
"As soon as the bullets start to fly we get resolution," says Ken Tower of
CyberTrader Inc. "That's positive for consumers and the economy, so we
expect the market takes off in a continuation of the rally we saw from
October to December."
Tower's forecast comes with a caveat, though. Like others, he warns
investors not to bet the whole farm on the outcome of a potential Desert
Storm II.
"Wars are like snow flakes; no two have the same shape," says Tower, who in
his job as chief strategist at the Charles Schwab unit has studied stocks'
reaction to periods of war.
There seems to be historical evidence that suggests war has been typically
bullish for stocks.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI has posted a significant rise in the
period that follows major events in U.S. history that precipitated war,
according to Gibbons Burke at MarketHistory.com.
The blue-chip Dow on average was up 31.4 percent 18 months after key
incidents leading to U.S. involvement in the Spanish-American War, World
Wars One and Two, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and the 1991 Desert Storm
offensive that ended Iraq's occupation of Kuwait, Burke said.
"When we actually start pulling the trigger has been bullish in the past,"
Burke told Reuters.
Still, many say this time a rally could fizzle because investors likely will
fret about corporate earnings and the sluggish U.S. economy.
Others argue a key difference between now and the period after the Gulf War
is that Wall Street was experiencing a bull market then, which continued
uninterrupted for a decade. Now, however, more than $8 trillion in investor
wealth has been wiped out since stocks peaked in early 2000.
"You can get a near-term bounce, a feel-good rally," said Gary Kaltbaum, who
heads advisory firm Investors Edge Partners. He questions the validity of
comparisons of the present to 1990 and says we are in a long-term bear
market.
"You work off the excesses of the prior bull, and the bigger the froth of
the bull, the bigger the bear," he said.
SELL THE RUMOR, BUY THE NEWS
The stock market often experiences a dip in the months immediately preceding
a war when rumors and speculation about potential military action put
investors on guard.
This time is no exception, with major market gauges off their highs of early
January's rally. So stocks could be poised for a rebound if fighting begins,
Wall Street experts say.
"The old adage that has held true on Wall Street for years is that you buy
the market when the first shots are fired and sell the market when the boys
come home," said Kevin Lane, chief market strategist at Technimentals
Research Group.
The market tumbled when Iraqi President Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in
August 1990, Burke said.
Stocks continued to decline through October until the United States began to
mobilize troops late in 1990.
"When the shooting began in January (1991), the market celebrated with an
amazing rally, and it never looked back," Burke said in a report.
The key to a lasting recovery in the market, analysts say, is a swift
resolution of hostilities.
But the market could quickly stumble if Wall Street doesn't sense very soon
after the start of military action that a quick resolution is in the cards.
"I would give it three weeks," said Charles Payne, analyst at Wall Street
Strategies.
Louis Navellier, who manages $5 billion for Navellier & Associates, said
ousting Saddam would be positive for stocks, whether it's by force or by
exile.
"Oil prices will fall (especially if the Venezuelan strike ends
simultaneously) and businesses will step up to the plate and start
increasing orders," Navellier said in a report.
But Richard Bernstein, chief U.S. strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co., said
investors seem overly confident about the potential war and oil prices.
An Iraqi war may not be as short as everyone assumes, and forecasts of
companies' sales and earnings may be optimistic given that U.S. economic
growth is below 4 percent, he said.
Bernstein said he is increasingly concerned higher energy prices might tip
the economy into recession again.
Alan Ackerman, market strategist at Fahnestock & Co., also warned against
being overly bullish.
"The successful outcome of any war is not a certainty. And the attack on
Iraq may bring more instability to the Middle East than any of us have
predicted," he said.

 wrote:






























Cazzo, sei proprio un Coglione con la C maiuscola 
Ma non sai una parola di inglese....... e posti?
Cosa ti credi d'essere un grande a fare un copia&incolla d'un pezzo
straniero?
Ma levati dalle palle...... fenoccio!!!
-- 
questo articolo e` stato inviato via web dal servizio gratuito 
http://www.newsland.it/news
 segnala gli abusi ad 
ab...@newsland.it

 straniero?
un commento/notizia vale lo stesso in italiano come in inglese, quindi 
perche' te la prendi ? capirei fosse stato in finlandese...

please do not feed the trolls
ai troll non si deve rispondere...
si fa il loro gioco
http://it.geocities.com/roccopapaleo/faq/italiano/PI.txt
Juk
PS trolleggia con nick diversi, ma lo stile e' inconfondibile...

 
http://www.newsland.it/news
 segnala gli abusi ad 
ab...@newsland.it
Ciao Bony....
Ma non ti stanchi mai..'
Quanti nick hai già utilizzato...?
Meglio fare il copia incolla per coloro che capiscono l'inglese...
Che tradurre un articolo per un analfabeta che sa solo fare
i "puntini" sulla schedine dell'Enalotto...!
E crede che la borsa sia una nuova versione della Sisal.
Se non si conosce l'inglese,in Borsa,almeno con i tempi
attuali,ci si riduce come te (212.239.22.xxx) a cercare
di prendere per il culo,invece di prendere azioni....
Cordialmente.
giosusa


Da un tuo post di ieri mi pareva di avere capito che anche il tuo inglese
non č proprio impeccabile.