Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Blue Stream ? (X Flamini)

Pare che alla Turchia non serva a molto questo capolavoro di ingegneria cui
Eni ha controbuito pesantemente....
Ci possono essere problemi per ENI a livello di Revenues se la Turchia
decidesse di non servirsene?
---------
Turkey has shut down the flow of gas from Russia's new Blue Stream pipeline,
idling the enormous underwater project less than a month after deliveries
began. The move follows years of warnings that Turkey was heading for a gas
glut, but Ankara's new government has also announced that it wants to reduce
the country's reliance on Russian gas.
Boston, 29 April 2003 (RFE/RL) -- Turkey has stopped buying Russian gas from
the recently opened Blue Stream pipeline across the Black Sea, raising
doubts about Ankara's policies and whether the $3.2 billion project was ever
needed at all.
On 25 April, an official of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom told Reuters
that Turkey suspended imports through the underwater line last month after
complaining that the prices were too high. A Turkish energy official
confirmed that deliveries were halted on 12 March.
The date means that the enormous project was pumping gas for less than three
weeks after commercial supplies started on 20 February. Construction of the
1,250-kilometer line took nearly three years, including subsea sections at
record-setting 2,100-meter depths.
Although the project of Italy's ENI oil company and Gazprom qualified as an
engineering triumph, it seems far less likely to be a commercial success.
Analysts have been warning for years that Turkish gas demand forecasts have
been far too rosy. Even before the cutoff, Turkey had negotiated with
Gazprom to reduce this year's flow through the pipeline by half.
Earlier this month, "The Russian Energy" industry newsletter said the lower
volume "will hardly justify the construction of the pipeline for years to
come." Although purchases were supposed to be guaranteed by a take-or-pay
contract, the unnamed Turkish official told Reuters that Ankara can suspend
them within six months without paying a penalty.
Turkey plans to accept gas again in August, but the huge investment may sit
unused until then.
The contracts and forecasts seem to have counted for little as Turkey takes
steps to recover from its worst economic downturn since World War II. Last
year, Ankara negotiated a price cut on Russian gas delivered by a separate
pipeline through Bulgaria.
But Gazprom refused a similar demand for Blue Stream, saying that its price
was already set by international pacts.
The suspension seems to be Turkey's answer to Russia's resistance. Gazprom's
prices have been rising because they follow higher oil prices with a lag of
six to nine months. The price may be only on paper, however, because
Turkey's reaction means that Gazprom is getting no Blue Stream revenue at
all.
At a parliamentary session earlier this month, Energy Minister Hilmi Guler
said that Turkey had already lost $196 million by buying the more costly
Blue Stream gas, the "Turkish Daily News" reported.
But Gazprom's problems could raise questions about the motives of Turkey's
new government under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and
Development Party. It is unclear whether the government is simply trying to
deal with a gas glut, save money, spread its energy sources, or perhaps
steer more business to Iran.
At his parliament appearance, Guler also reportedly said, "The Turkish
government has declared that its strategic goal is to eliminate the
country's dependence on Russian gas." Guler said Russia's share of the
Turkish market should be lowered in the next five years from 70 percent to
30 percent.
"The Russian Energy" newsletter noted that the goal would violate Russia's
contracts, which call for deliveries that would give it 54 percent of the
market by 2008. The newsletter said Turkey's plan is to shift the growth to
Iran, which already has a pipeline and a 25-year supply deal, and
Azerbaijan, where Caspian gas development is just getting under way.
Turkey also has import contracts for liquid natural gas from Nigeria and
Algeria. But in the past week, the most active avenue seems to be with Iran.
Last week, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref met with Erdogan in
Ankara as part of a bilateral economic commission. The talks followed a
joint security committee meeting in Ankara last month.
Iran's ambition to pipe gas through Turkey to Europe won Guler's backing
last week, the official Iranian news agency IRNA reported. Tehran has been
lining up support for the plan from Romania and Bulgaria for the past year.
According to the English-language "Iran News," Iran and Bulgaria are
planning a 4,000-kilometer transcontinental pipeline to Austria. The project
through Romania is called Nabuko, the paper said, citing a Bulgarian news
agency.
Like Russia and Azerbaijan, Iran has tried to turn the problem of Turkey's
gas glut into an advantage by seeking transit routes through the country
that could supply Greece and other countries.
Last year, Turkey also stopped importing Iranian gas on a pretext of quality
problems until it negotiated a lower price. Tehran's patience may now be
rewarded by the new Erdogan government as it tries to reduce its Russian
imports.
But it seems more likely that Turkey will keep playing one side against the
other for economic reasons rather than boosting gas business with Iran
because of the Justice and Development Party's Islamist roots.
At the moment, Iran's gas is believed to be substantially cheaper than
Russian gas from Blue Stream, and after the winter season, Turkey has no
need for both.
Iran's transit plan may also be a tough sell because its gas would flow
north to a region where Russian gas already flows south through existing
lines.
With Turkey's crimp in Blue Stream, Russia will have more than enough gas to
keep Europe supplied, making an investment in new lines for Iranian gas just
as unprofitable as Blue Stream has turned out to be.
--
- Jerry Senfield -
jsenfie...@NOSPAMtin.it

 decidesse di non servirsene?
non più di tanto entro luglio o Agosto 2003 scattano i contratti take or pay
se la turchia non vuole il gas del BS dovrà pagare delle penali
Per quello che riguarda Eni non dovrebbe intaccarne l' utile per vari
motivi, primo fra tutti è che il progetto è entrato nella sua fase operativa
solo quest' anno poi perchè Eni non sta ancora vendendo il suo gas di
Khagaranak, inoltre i quantivi che si dovevano vendere quest' anno erano
poca cosa, circa 4 miliardi di metri cubi (credo tutti di gazprom) a regime
il bluestream dovebbe portare in Turchia 16 miliardi di metri cubi di cui 8
in quota Eni che dovrebbero provenire dal giacimento di Khagaranak una volta
che verrà raggiunto dalle condotte