Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: L'ITALIA ha lo stesso rischio sistemico degli USA (e se lo dicono loro....)...

The chart below compares projected 2010 deficits to net public debt, both 
expressed as a percentage of GDP. Nations below the diagonal line risk 
falling into financial distress. The diagonal represents two risk factors as 
a single measure: (1) the larger your public debt, the more precarious your 
position, and (2) the greater your current deficit (below zero) the faster 
your financial position will deteriorate. The US, for example, with net debt 
below 60 percent is in the same risk category as Italy, because it is 
running larger deficits. Greece and Japan are obviously in the worst 
position, but the UK and Ireland*, with deficits greater than 10 percent, 
risk joining them within the next five years.
*Ireland and Greece announced measures to reduce their national deficit 
which are not taken into account in the OECD projections. Whether Greek 
austerity measures are sufficient to rescue them from the red zone is 
questionable, and may merely serve to slow their rate of descent if further 
steps are not taken.
For the technically minded, I have used the projected change in net public 
debt levels rather than the budget deficit. There are subtle differences, 
with budget deficits often understating the increase in national debt 
levels.
The Two Ds
Governments in financial distress, generally where public debt exceeds GDP, 
have two "quick fixes" available to them:
  1.. default; or
  2.. debase the currency.
Default, informing creditors that you are unable to repay them, is the 
simplest option, but leads to financial distress, not only for creditor 
banks, but also for the nation itself. Defaulting nations lose access to 
normal trade credit, severely restricting international trade.
Debasing the currency through inflation is only effective where debts are 
denominated in the national currency - not an option for members of the 
European Monetary Union, such as Greece. While it may seem the easy way out, 
the cost is financial instability, higher interest rates and higher 
unemployment.
The High Road
The long hard road back from financial distress through austerity is a third 
option. Surpluses, generated by cuts in expenditure or increased taxes, can 
be used to pay down debt over time. Australia set this as a goal during the 
Howard era, paying off its entire public debt within a decade.
The key is to provide a stable financial base to encourage real growth in 
GDP - that is private sector growth, not jobs funded out of present or 
future taxes. GDP growth has a double payoff: not only raising tax revenues 
to generate a larger surplus, but also lowering the debt to GDP ratio - 
making the debt more affordable.
http://i50.tinypic.com/11tpno4.png


ciao orsotoro
non ho capito l'immagine allegata.......
l'italia da un dato di debito di 92 % circa del pil e il pil a circa
-4% ! ! !
ma il dato esatto non è debito 118% e pil a -4,9 / 5% ? ?
help
Cordialmente
Rovettese

 ha scritto
ciao orsotoro
non ho capito l'immagine allegata.......
l'italia da un dato di debito di 92 % circa del pil e il pil a circa
-4% ! ! !
ma il dato esatto non � debito 118% e pil a -4,9 / 5% ? ?
----> I dati riportati sono esatti perch� riguardano: "Projected 2010 
Deficit as % of GDP" e "2009 Net Public as % of GDP".... 

"l'orsotoro�" <orsoUNDER...@yahooDOT.it> ha scritto
...oltretutto la fonte � l'OCSE 
http://www.oecd.org/home/0,2987,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html