Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Grecia: rischio default è ancora concreto

Greece Default Risk Is ‘Substantial,’ Pimco’s Bosomworth Says
September 06, 2010, 6:58 AM EDT
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e-mail this story print this story diggadd to Business Exchange By 
Josiane Kremer
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Greece still faces a “substantial” default risk 
as insolvency prevents the nation from repaying its debt when its 
bailout program expires in three years, Pacific Investment Management 
Co. fund manager Andrew Bosomworth said.
“Greece is insolvent,” Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio 
management at Pimco, which oversees the world’s largest bond fund, said 
in a telephone interview today. “I see it as being quite a substantial 
risk that Greece eventually defaults or restructures.”
In a best-case scenario, Greece’s government debt will swell to 150 
percent of gross domestic product, Bosomworth said. The European 
Union-led rescue package assumes the Athens-based government will tap 
investors for 82 billion euros ($106 billion) during the life of the 
bailout program, “and that’s I think going to be very difficult,” he said.
“Debt servicing as a share of government revenue will increase 
substantially, particularly if current yield levels do not decline,” 
Bosomworth said.
The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds over 
German equivalents is now 902 basis points, compared with 785 basis 
points at the end of June. Greek 10-year debt yielded 11.24 percent 
today. The Spanish spread is at 173 basis points, Portugal’s is at 331 
basis points and Ireland’s is at 340 basis points.
Greek Yields
The premiums investors charge to hold Spanish and Irish debt over German 
bunds are wider than before the EU announced its rescue package on May 10.
If the interest rates of other southern European countries “stay where 
they are, they are going to have some problems as well,” Bosomworth 
said. “You have the contagion risk and until we know precisely how this 
contagion risk will be contained, it is a pretty risky strategy staying 
in the other countries as well.”
The euro slumped 21 percent from a November 2009 peak through a June 
trough this year as the threat of contagion from Greece’s financial 
crisis prompted investors to sell other euro- region assets. The country 
ran up a budget deficit of 13.6 percent of GDP last year on debt of 
115.1 percent of total output, the European Commission estimated in May. 
Greece’s debt will swell to 124.9 percent this year, the commission said.
--Editors: Tasneem Brogger, Craig Stirling
To contact the reporter on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at 
Jkre...@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tasneem Brogger at 
tbro...@bloomberg.net

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 Greece Default Risk Is 'Substantial,' Pimco's Bosomworth Says
che fai come il bony?
che il giorno 25 agosto scrisse che aveva paura della grecia ed invece 
quello fu il minimo di agosto.
Adesso č rimasto con un palmo di naso