Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: interessante, le reazioni storiche delle borse alle crisi ed eventi eccezionali

http://www.globalfindata.com/
The Historical Impact of Crises on Financial Markets
By Dr. Bryan Taylor, Global Financial Data
With the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and
elsewhere in the United States took place on September 11, 2001, there were
immediate concerns about their impact on world financial markets. Although
this event is without precedent, by looking at military and political crises
of the past, we can hopefully learn what to expect from this horrible event.
The general pattern we have found is that there is initially a flight to
safety in financial markets, producing a decline in stock markets and
volatility in commodity markets. The impact of the crisis itself is
short-term. After a brief period of time, calm returns and markets return to
their situation before the crisis. Although financial markets react quickly
to all news, they can also process the information and quickly incorporate
the news into the market to reflect the long-term impact of these crises on
the markets. Financial markets are only impacted if the crisis creates a
long-term change in the fundamental nature of the economy.
Let's see how markets reacted in the past.
World War I
The assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand on June 28, 1914
precipitated a series of events that led to Austria-Hungary declaring war on
Serbia on July 28 and war throughout Europe within a week. All the worlds
financial markets were closed by August 1, 1914. In New York, there was
large selling on the New York Stock Exchange in the last days of July 1914
to raise money and return it to Europe. The selling led to the closure of
the exchange. The New York Stock Exchange remained closed until it was
reopened on December 12, 1914. Londons stock market remained closed until
January 1915, and allowed only limited trading during 1915. The Paris Stock
exchange reopened in 1915 and the Berlin Stock Exchange reopened in 1917.
Although the New York Stock Exchange itself did not reopen until December,
curb trading in New York began in September. The prices of stocks actually
hit their lowest point in October of 1914, and by the time the market
reopened in December, stocks had returned to the level they had been at
before World War I began. The market continued to rise until November 1916.
World War I provided an important lesson for financial markets. Closing them
does not solve any problems. It is best to let markets digest the
information and allow financial prices to reflect the change in
circumstances.
Currency market were initially disrupted by the war, with the British Pound
rising 20% against the US Dollar as people tried to repatriate money to
England, but within a week of the beginning of the war, currency exchange
rates returned to their pre-war levels. Bond markets were generally
unaffected by the war. Interest rates only began to rise once inflation
began to build up later in the war.
This pattern, as we will see, was consistently followed in other crises.
Initially, there is a flight to safety, leading to declines in the market
and increases in the value of commodities. Once the long-term impact of the
crisis is understood, markets return to their conditions before the crisis.
Thereafter, markets move up or down as investors perceive that the crisis
will be resolved.
World War II
There were several phases to how markets reacted to World War II. There were
a series of crises during World War II: the attack of Germany on Poland in
September 1939, the attack on France and the collapse of France in May 1940,
and the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
Surprisingly, the New York Stock Market rose when Germany attacked Poland on
September 1, 1939, primarily because investors thought the United States
would benefit from the demand for goods generated by the war. The market
barely moved until the collapse of France in May 1940. The collapse of
France and Dunkirk precipitated a 25% decline in the market in May 1940 in a
massive sell-off. But again, the market jumped back quickly. The market
first bottomed on May 22 and hit its final bottom on June 11, 1940. As the
news got worse in the war, markets gradually declined throughout 1941, and
when Pearl Harbor was attacked, the market declined around 10% in the next
two weeks. The market bottomed in April 1942, and moved up after that for
the rest of the war as the war moved in the favor of the Allies.
Unlike World War I, the New York Stock Exchange did not close during World
War II. The London Stock Exchange was closed for only one week in September
when Germany attacked Poland. The New York Stock Exchange remained open
throughout the war. In fact, the NYSE was open on Monday, December 8, the
day after the attack on Pearl Harbor. The Stock Exchanges found that people
will find a way to trade stocks and other financial assets outside of the
exchanges if people cannot trade stocks on open markets. Moreover, the
quicker markets are allowed to process news, the quicker markets can adjust
to the economic and financial changes that have occurred.
The Gulf War
During the Gulf War, the market followed the pattern shown in World War I
and World War II. Stock markets sold off and oil prices rose when Saddam
Hussein invaded Kuwait. Oil prices were at $17 a barrel at the end of June
1990, and peaked at $40 on October 9, 1990. The price then proceeded to
decline to $20 a barrel by January of 1991, and continued to decline
throughout most of the 1990s.
The stock market had been rising prior to Saddam Husseins invasion of
Kuwait. The market topped out on July 17, 1990 and declined 20% until the
market bottomed on October 11, 1990. When the attack on Iran finally began,
the market jumped up, rising almost 20% over the next month. The war was
over with in a few days and despite a recession in the United States that
followed the Gulf War, the market did not decline and stayed within a
trading range for the rest of 1991.
During the Gulf War there was a reduction in airplane travel, which did
affect the airline industry. But the long-term impact on stock markets and
even oil markets was minimal, even though it was followed by a recession in
the United States. In fact, the price of oil continued to decline after the
war was over with.
The 1993 World Trade Center Bombing
The World Trade Center was bombed on February 26, 1993. This attack had
virtually no impact on the stock market. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrials
moved up on that day.
A similar situation occurred in August 1991 when there was an attempted coup
in Russia. European markets sold off over 10% within one day, but recovered
all of their losses within a week after the coup attempt collapsed. As in
other crises, the market quickly recovered and never looked back once it was
clear the crisis was over with.
The Terrorist Attack of September 2001
As could be expected, world markets sold off as soon as news of the attack
was heard. The London Stock market was down 5%, Germany 8% and Paris 5%. US
Stock Markets never opened because the attack occurred before 9:30.
What will be the reaction of financial markets to this crisis?
This event is different from the other crises because it was a direct attack
on the financial center of the United States. The World Trade Center houses
many of the most important financial firms in the world, including the New
York Mercantile Exchange, which physically no longer exists. This raises
important concerns because many of the people who operate financial markets
in the United States probably died.
But as we have seen, markets bounce back from these crises and bounce back
quickly. The reason is that markets are efficient at processing information.
They both overreact initially when the crisis occurs, and quickly bounce
back once markets have determined the impact of these crises on the economy
will be minimal.
The primary way in which this attack could impact financial markets is if it
materially impacts the economy. In and of itself, the attack is unlikely to
do this. It all depends upon how the government reacts to return the economy
and the market to normal in the next few weeks. One fear would be that the
attack might lead to greater isolationism in the world economy, but this
would be exactly the wrong reaction. Globalization of markets and trade has
provided immense benefits over the past decades and in many ways was
responsible for the growth in the world economy during the 1990s. If
anything, this attack should make provide us with an even greater commitment
to free trade to defeat the goals of the terrorists.
Although many people worry that the integration of the worlds stock markets
could cause a ripple effect through the worlds markets, and that their
integration makes them all vulnerable to attack. The technology that is
currently available can also help markets to bounce back. Markets such as
Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange require no physical location. One
result of the terrorist attack may be to quicken the move of financial
markets into cyberspace. Exchanges with a single location where stocks or
commodities can be traded are likely to become rarer in the future.
Experience of previous crises shows that people find ways to buy and sell
financial assets regardless of whether markets are officially open or not.
To conclude, markets quickly assess the impact of crises. The quicker
markets are allowed to digest news, the quicker markets can recover from the
crisis. The consistent pattern in past crises is a sell off when the news
breaks, a short period of evaluation, and a bounce back in financial markets
once investors realize that the crisis, in and of itself, will not have a
long-term impact on financial markets. The key to making sure that this
crisis does not impact the rest of the economy and the global economy, and
push an already weak global economy into recession is to keep financial
markets open and promote international trade.

Molto bello ma sembra inesatto e tendenzialmente ottimistico.
Lo
conservo, ma ti incollo un bel intervento trovato nel forum
forum.iol.it/finanza
si parla di ribassi e di crolli del 40 % .
".....
Economicamente rilevante comunque la correlazione tra ribassi e
guerre in area petrolifera.
Probabilmente la risposta delle borse è legata
allo shock dovuto alla guerra del kippur ed alla "guerra" petrolifera
conseguente.
Allora gli indici usa persero il 45% .
Altre crisi in area
petrolifera con forti influenze sulle borse furono quelle nell'area del
golfo. 
La guerra Iran Irak dall'80 all'88.
Questa guerra non coinvolse
direttamente gli Usa ( che però tifavano Iraq, dopo la crisi
dell'ambasciata a teheran ) così la crisi del 80/81 con una perdita
superiore al 40, fu seguita da un rialzo impetuoso ( nel 83 superiore al
60% ). Tra l'altro
coincidente alla crisi del 81 abbiamo l'inizio della
rivolta sandinista in nicaragua sentita in america come una guerra vicina.
La guerra iran irak fu accompaganta da un trend in crescita che portò gli
indici usa quasi a triplicare dai minimi del 82, ma finì con un ribasso del
30% nell'autunno del 87 per la cosiddetta crisi del golfo persico che
coinvolse anche gli Usa.
Fino alla guerra del golfo tutte le altre crisi,
compresa l'invasione di panama non produssero ribassi , anzi l'indice
prosegui la sua crescita senza esitazioni.
Se calcoliamo poi che
l'invasione del Kuwait nel 90 provocò una correzzione "solo " del 15%
rispetto ai massimi di maggio già praticamente recuperata a fine anno, si
comprende che la borsa usa è particolarmente sensibile alla modalità di
entrata in guerra ed alle prospettive della sua durata.
Prova ne sia la
recente crisi in albania, che non ha turbato il gonfiarsi della bolla
speculativa della net-economy.
Tutto ciò in realtà è assai poco
significativo.
Ovviamente straordinario sarà il comportamento della borsa
usa per l'attentato dell'11 settembre.
Sia perchè viene vissuta come
guerra in casa propria, sia perchè arriva in un ciclo economico delle borse
chiaramente distributivo...."
--------------------------------
Inviato via 
http://usenet.iol.it
 

 Molto bello ma sembra inesatto e tendenzialmente ottimistico.
si, infatti nelle valutazioni sarei MOOLTO attento al fattore patriottismo,
che in USA e' qualcosa che neanche ci immaginiamo. Hanno una ferrea volonta'
di rifarsi, e tutte le banche americane (notare, NON la federal reserve, ma
tutte le banche) si sono impegnate a sostenere il mercato. Cosa veramente
nuova.... Ovviamente la borsa dovra' scontare la cosa ma... non c'e' neppure
da essere pessimisti

 
La mia opinione, gia da giovedi, e' che faranno di tutto per evitare 
un crollo alla riapertura.
Potrebbero farlo prima di tutto per dare un segnale fortissimo a chi 
vuole vedere gli USA in ginocchio. La tenuta dei mercati americani 
potrebbe essere la prima reazione forte del governo e di tutti gli 
USA contro i terroristi.
-- 
Will Dephoe
Money for nothin' and your chicks for free