Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: X Gigi, Giovanni e Giulio Re: Wall Street

Sono in parte d'accordo con voi, ma paradossalmente il +2.2 di venerdi
sembra essere stato un ulteriore segno di negativita' x voi, e se
avesse fatto un -2.2 cosa avreste pensato ?
Io sto provando a legger un po' di ottimismo tra le righe.....ma non
vorrei mi credeste oca giuliva...
grazie x i commenti e saluti a tutti
Alessandro Carotti

Io sto provando a legger un po' di ottimismo tra le righe..
vorrei potere anch'io..
Sperando che tu sappia l'inglese allego qualche riflessione piu'
ufficiale delle mie.. qualche altro spunto di riflessione
Ciao
Gigi
.(Reuters) - Welcome October. 
Yes indeed, stock investors have many reasons to worry about October,
a month traditionally disastrous for stocks: five of the 10 nastiest
market drops occurred in October, in 1929, 1932, 1937, 1987 and 1989. 
Now add to that list the October 1997 fall that wiped out 554 points
from the Dow Jones industrial average. 
That drop, the biggest ever in point terms for the world's most
closely watched stock index, came as global financial markets realized
that there was an economic meltdown in Asia. 
The experts say this year, the market is very susceptible to the
October jinx because of the spreading economic turmoil, which has
dragged the Dow down more than 1,800 points to a recent low of about
7,500, from its record 9,337.97 on July 17. 
The Dow is down 2 percent for the year after being up an impressive 17
percent at its summer peak. 
The outlook is grim and the experts are betting that the economic news
will get worse before it gets better. 
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the 1999 outlook for the
U.S. economy had weakened and some of top Wall Street economists see a
slowdown or a mild recession next year, thanks to the fallout from the
Asian contagion. 
President Clinton put it bluntly this week, telling the International
Monetary Fund and World Bank that the world faces perhaps its ``most
serious financial crisis in a half century.'' 
The big concern is that economic policy-makers are not moving fast
enough to keep global economic growth from coming to a halt. 
``Investors are counting on a lot of things and the worse that could
happen is if people give up on seeing a solution to the current
problems,''  said Arnold Kaufman, editor of Standard & Poor's Outlook
investment advisory newsletter. 
``The market is counting on Japan doing something to get its economy
out of recession, on a rescue plan for Brazil and a continued drop --
as much as 1.25 points -- in interest rates by the Federal Reserve,''
he said. 
Investors have had a crash mentality in October and they'll now be
bracing for the next jolt. 
Wall Street had its first meltdown in October 1929 when the Dow fell
20 percent in just two days. The next unpleasant memory was the
stomach-churning, one-day drop of 23 percent in 1987, which led to the
shortest bear market ever, lasting less than two months. 
That shakeout took place after buying excesses had priced stocks out
of this world. 
Now that the global economy is ailing, wary Wall Streeters are keeping
their eyes wide open, watching for more land mines. 
Adding to the tension is the impeachment inquiry in Congress into
whether President Clinton committed crimes in the White House sex
scandal. 
What's troubling, analysts say, is that investors' mind-set has
changed dramatically and they are magnifying the negatives while
downplaying the positives. This could fuel a compressed market fall. 
The gloom over economic recessions in Japan, other parts of Asia and
Russia is not expected to lift soon. And the contagion is showing
signs of spreading to Latin America, and perhaps the United States. 
Financial markets were disappointed but not surprised this week that
the seven richest countries were unable to do anything to help the
one-third of the world's ailing countries out of their economic mess. 
The problem for Corporate America is that the struggling countries
will not be able to afford to buy U.S. goods and in the end, that will
pressure earnings. 
In the past, bloated stock valuations have played a big role in
greasing the skids for bear markets. Now analysts say investors may be
repeating mistakes by paying too much for stocks based on overly
optimistic views of earnings growth. 
In 1929, the price-to-earnings ratio of the companies in the Standard
& Poor's 500 index was 24 times earnings. In 1987, it was 21. This
summer, the P-E was at a record 30 before investors realized that
trees don't grow to the sky, and the market went into a three-month
correction. 
Kaufman said the P-E has since dropped to 25.6 but stocks still have
room to fall. ``The market is possibly within 5 to 10 percent of fair
value,'' he said. 
Sure, many stocks have fallen 50 percent from their highs. 
``But the speculative excess has still not gone out of the stocks that
make up the Dow and S&P 500 indexes,'' Kaufman said. ''The stocks are
still commanding premiums because people are confident about the
strong U.S. economy and that money will keep pouring into 401(k)
retirement pension plans.'' 
At best, the market could grind sideways for awhile and at worst, one
of the biggest bear markets in years could hit Wall Street. 
The bears may not be out the woods, yet. Not by a long shot. 
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 114.83 points at
7,899.52. The Nasdaq composite index was down 122.49 at 1,492.49. The
Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 18.28 to 984.32. Reut18:10 10-10-98 

 from the Dow Jones industrial average.
Se e' per quello anche Agosto e' statisticamente un mese tranquillo,
invece cosi' non e' stato. Quindi se questo e' l'anno delle
eccezioni....
Sandro.
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