Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Ricevo e pubblico... . . . . .

Outlook for the remainder of 2008
Oil prices lack sustainability at current levels outside of a world war 
breaking out or a horrific hurricane in the Gulf. The reality is the market 
premium is not geopolitical. It is not what I like to refer to as Bush 
premium. It is not seasonal.  It is not supply or demand.  It is not due to 
fund buying.  It is all of the above.  Trying to attribute prices to one 
specific cause gets you nowhere. The general panic is priced in and the 
market has topped.  Expect a severe correction in energies through 
September, creating a commodity industry-wide price relief.
Outlook for the remainder of 2008
The stock market needs a meltdown badly to finish this correction.  The key 
area for me is between 1100 and 1150 on the S&P, above that there is little 
market value.  Now history has proven that Fed intervention has prematurely 
supported the market and forced a delay in the ultimate market failure. 
Look for a fake out rally to sucker value hunters in through much of July 
and then watch out!  The dollar on the underhand is creating a rounding 
bottom that will be supported by a global meltdown.  The world needs to 
catch up to the U.S. failure - we took the beat down early and will see 
dollar strength as the European and Asian markets feel the effects in their 
own right.  Look for a dollar run to near 80 by year end.  The yen, euro and 
Canadian dollar are shorts with a key level on the Canadian at 9675 and 152 
and change on the euro.  Bonds will remain choppy with a range between 119 
and 112.  The Fed has to make up their mind and bonds are stuck until they 
do.
Conclusion
2008 began with a bang and will end with a thud. The dynamic of oil's 
collapse will send commodity prices reeling through the majority of the rest 
of 2008, with the dollar's surge being the icing on the cake. Look for short 
bursts of volatility expansion in markets like gold, oil and soybeans as the 
price collapse happens in a blink of an eye. Wheat and rice are good 
examples of what many of the other markets will look like when they begin to 
truly break down. Option traders should seek out low volatility long put 
option opportunities using only a 6-8 month historical volatility reference. 
Futures traders should avoid some of these over priced markets because there 
is nothing worse than getting wiped out by a shake out. The year is just a 
little more than half over, but the fun is just beginning for us contrarian 
bears. 

 beginning for us contrarian bears.
Questa parte sopra non la condivido.
Secondo loro il 2008 è iniziato con un "colpo" e finirà con un "tonfo" e il 
"divertimento" per loro, orsi contrarian, deve iniziare.....spiegano anche 
le loro motivazioni (petrolio caro e dollaro che si apprezzerà)...tuttavia i 
prezi del petrolio scontano una guerra mondiale (che non c'è...proprio in 
questi giorni l'Iran ha detto che USA e Israele sono stati amici...cercando 
di riavvicinarsi...) e l'S&P500 è prossimo al 100% del ritracciamento con 5 
= 3 (1100 --- 1150)....manca circa un 10% che secondo i miei studi arriverà 
entro il 10 agosto 2008... 

 entro il 10 agosto 2008...
Quindi ti rimangi la precedente versione
LOL :_)))
MARIOOOOOOOOOOOO
lo stiamo perdendooooooooooo 

 ha scritto nel 
messaggio news:FXXgk.2354$Pw....@tornado.fastwebnet.it...

L'ho pubblicata poco sopra a questo post.....mi hai risposto per dare fiato 
alla bocca?!?!?!?!?!
:-D :-D :-D :-D 

> Look for a dollar run to near 80 by year end
non possono ragionevolmente intendere 0.8, ma se parlano di 1.8 e' un 
ulteriore deprezzamento.
Vero che subito dopo parlano di Euro short, ma cacchio, da 1.6 a 0.8 in 6 
mesi !!

 ha scritto nel messaggio 
news:gqYgk.2399$Pw....@tornado.fastwebnet.it...

Scusa.....per gli americani il "DOLLARO" è il "DOLLAR INDEX"...che alla 
chiusura di venerdì u.s. quotava 72.43....
Per cui un ritorno a 80 significherebbe un recupero del dollaro (sul paniere 
che compone l'indice...o anche su una sola valuta se il rialzo percentuale è 
maggiore di tutte le altre...) e specificano anche su quali valute: 
YEN...EURO e DOLLARO CANADESE. 

 quali valute: YEN...EURO e DOLLARO CANADESE.
hai ragione, ci sarei dovuto arrivare da solo