Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: analisi d'oltreoceno

  For the week, the S&P 500 index lost 0.86%. The bulk of this loss occurred 
on August 16, when the index declined 1.17%. This day generated an extremely 
negative sentiment reading. Even though market mood remained largely neutral 
over the other four days, we still consider the overall weekly sentiment 
reading to be strongly negative.
  The week generated an extremely bearish sentiment reading on August 16. 
The last time we saw the generation of similarly low A/D issues and A/D 
volume readings was on April 13, 2005. During that session, the index 
generated an A/D issues ratio of 0.10 and an A/D volume ratio of 0.13. Even 
though market breadth indicators were not as negative on April 13 as they 
were on August 16, sentiment readings on April 13 may be considered to have 
more bearish implications. The reason we consider the April 13 sentiment 
readings to be more bearish is that they were followed by two additional 
sessions where a strongly negative market sentiment prevailed (i.e., on 
April 14 and April 15). In contrast, the extremely low sentiment readings 
noted on August 16 was an isolated incident - market mood over the remainder 
of the week was clearly neutral. Furthermore, the strongly negative 
sentiment that had been recorded on April 14 and 15 was supported by an 
extremely high volume output - April 15's volume was 43.5% above the average 
volume recorded over the previous 10 days. It is also worth mentioning that 
the extremely low sentiment readings recorded this week were not accompanied 
by panic selling levels.

e  per buona  pace del mandelli  .......................
Last week, large caps and blue chips proved to be more resilient than their 
technology counterparts. The S&P 500 index gained 0.32% and the DOW 
outperformed with a gain of 0.40%, but the technology indexes suffered a 
second consecutive week of losses, with the NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ 
100 indexes dropping 0.96% and 0.61%, respectively.
Throughout the second week of this two-week-old pullback, the NASDAQ 100 
index has made some progress in terms of "processing" the overhang of 
resistive volume that had been building up during the recent multi-week 
rally. On a 15-day chart with a 180-minute VMA - as well as on a 30-day 
chart with a 240-minute VMA - we now see new, relatively large supportive 
VMA spikes to the downside. This is positive for strengthening the mid-term 
uptrend; however, there remains an imbalance of relatively recently created 
resistive volume, best seen on a 60-day chart with a 1-day VMA. In addition, 
the market continues to generate conspicuous individual VMA spikes to the 
upside over the short-term, such as near Friday's close (chart reference: a 
one-day view with a 15-minute VMA setting). These factors could contribute 
to add further fuel to the current short-term downtrend. We would therefore 
not be surprised to see the present market weakness extend a little further.
In spite of the possibility of further short-term vulnerability, we still 
anticipate a continuation of the mid-term uptrend. Our positive evaluation 
for this timeframe is largely dictated by the supportive volume spike seen 
in mid-April on a 6-month chart (use a 2- or 3-day VMA). For the S&P 500 
index, this volume surge still exceeds the growing accumulation of resistive 
volume that has taken place since the middle of June. While the NASDAQ 100 
index chart for this timeframe shows a similar same picture, the large VMA 
spike to the upside seen on July 21 is more of a potential cause for 
caution.
For the long-term, we believe there is a high probability the market will 
continue along its long-term uptrend. Using a 5-year chart of the S&P 500 
index (and a 20-day VMA setting), note the (largely unchallenged) dominance 
of the large VMA spikes to the downside seen in August and October 2002.