Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Olio crudo 41,88 $

cs


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Dubbi sul trend?
Analysis
Fri 5/28/04 (Crude oil)
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend
is up.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving
average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis,
plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the
fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely
bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due
to the following: price is below the fast moving average. Its possible that
we may see a market pullback here. if so, the pullback might turn out to be
a good buying opportunity.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the
fast moving average is above the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything
in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above
the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous
bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price
is above the fast average and the slow average.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an
overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to
the top band than the bottom band.
Additional Analysis: The market is in overbought territory. And, the market
just signaled a 9 bar bearish key reversal adding to the chance for a
decline here.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving
average.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (1.80) is above zero, indicating an
overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average,
is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP.
Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely. However, a bearish
key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (4.73) is above zero, indicating
an overbought market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average,
is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of
Change is in bullish territory. However, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar
new high here suggests a downside move is possible.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (143.83) recently crossed above the buy
line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position
should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center
region.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because
of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region.
Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to
cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this
interpretation, CCI (143.83) is currently long. The current long position
position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The market just
signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting closing any
long positions here.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 61.50).
This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom
line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises
above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 61.50) suggesting
a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new
high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not
issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above
or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average,
is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is
in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may
indicate a short term decline within the next few bars. A bearish key
reversal off a 9 bar new high here confirms this bearish outlook.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar
moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates
increased liquidity.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving
average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving
average, is UP. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here
suggests a decline.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK
line is below the SlowD line.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend looks a
little toppy. The fact that the last two bars of SlowK are down and we are
trading in a very high area of the stochastic is a little bearish short
term. A possible short term down move may occur.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line;
this indicates a sell signal. The stochastic is in overbought territory
(SlowK is at 81.76); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP.
Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't
be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic
indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are
not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify
bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated
when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the
understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not
designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.
Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae,
and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any
information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation.
 
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