Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: STM - domani

STM 2000 results seen stellar, outlook key
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 24, 2001 10:43:00 AM EST
By Catherine Bremer
PARIS, Jan 22 (Reuters) - French-Italian chip maker STMicroelectronics is
expected to post stellar 2000 results on Thursday but analysts will be on
tenterhooks for its 2001 outlook amid signs that growth in the chip market
is slowing.
While STM's profit margins have increased steadily in recent quarters,
analysts said its third-quarter order book pointed to a slowdown in 2001
sales, notably in the first quarter, and said they also feared a pause in
mobile phone sales might weigh.
"So far they've been right in their bullish forecasts but the market is set
to slow down next year and they won't be able to escape that," said analyst
Remi Thomas at CAI Cheuvreux.
The concerns were fanned by Texas Instruments TX, the company seen to have
the closest profile to STM, when it said on Monday it expected a 10 percent
sales drop in the first quarter.
According to consensus figures from the JLC group, analysts expect
STMicroelectronics to post 2000 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.6,
rising to $2.1 per share in 2001. The same analysts forecast 2000 net profit
at $1.49 billion, a jump of 172 percent, and sales up 70 percent to $7.9
billion.
"STM has seen a fabulous progression in margins, mostly due to cost cutting,
capacity increases and a better product mix, said a London-based analyst,
forecasting a fourth-quarter EBIT margin of 25.2 percent.
"But since their September forecast the market has turned on its head,
especially the mobile sector, and a lot of chip buyers have high
inventories," he said.
CUSHIONED FROM PC SLOWDOWN BUT MARGINS UNDER THREAT
STMicroelectronics, the world's seventh largest seller of semiconductor
chips, said in September it was banking on market growth of 25 to 30 percent
in 2001 and it expected to do better than the sector. If its 2000 sales beat
7.88 billion euros, it will over take Motorola MOT as world number six chip
seller.
Analysts fear it will be hard pushed to keep to that given industry
expectations recently slid to around 10 percent from earlier forecasts of
25-30 percent.
Yet analysts said there should be nothing to worry about for 2000 and said
the fourth quarter -- the last piece of the puzzle still to be published --
should see a strong rise.
"We expect a very strong fourth quarter," said one one, forecasting
fourth-quarter EPS of $0.48 versus $0.45 in 1999.
Having weathered the mid-1999 downturn in the chip market better than its
rivals due to high sales to the robust telecoms and consumer electronics
markets, which cushioned it from a tailing off in PC sales, STM is seen
continuing to fare better than its rivals but margins could still come under
pressure.
"STMicroelectronics has had a phenomenal 2000 but we're waiting to see the
impact of the sector slowdown during the past two months," said Schroder
Salomon Smith Barney analyst Lionel Rayon, who predicted 2000 earnings per
share of $1.57.
Analysts expect telecoms to account for a third of 2000 sales, up from a
quarter in 1999, and see sales to the consumer electronics market at 25
percent from 22 percent. Sales to the more sluggish PC market, where STM
supplies peripheral gadgets like printers rather than PC memories, are seen
slipping to around 22 percent, from 25 percent in 1999.
"STM has done fantastically well so far, but what we need to know now is
where it forecasts market growth in 2001 and what it's hearing from its
biggest clients, like Nokia and Alcatel, about inventories," said the
London-based analyst.
(Additional reporting by William Emmanuel)
Rtr 10:43 01-24-01

perchè non so, ma quando ci sono le trimestrali da sogno STM scende; anche
semplicemente perchè il Nasdaq non ha forza, indipendentemente dai risultati
del titolo.
Vai a capire questa Borsa bisca...

 share of $1.57............................
CUT---->>>>>_---->>>>>CUT

Mi sembra che si stia SCOMMETTENDO su un warning, dato che l'anno sara'
ultrapositivo cmq, per la regola  base di parecchi analisti, secondo
cui" quasi tutti hanno lanciato profit warning tocca anche a STM". Sono
curioso.
--
Ciao
London Ray
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ICQ  56476275
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