Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: STICAZZI, MO TOCCA A NOI

PRESS RELEASE: Moody''s Places Italy''s Aa2 Ratings On Review For 
Possible Downgrade
Ora: 17/06/2011 21:15
Testo:
Frankfurt am Main, June 17, 2011 -- Moody''s Investors Service has today
placed Italy''s Aa2 local and foreign currency government bond ratings on
review for possible downgrade, while affirming its short-term ratings at
Prime-1.
The main drivers that prompted the rating review are:
(1) Economic growth challenges due to macroeconomic structural weaknesses
and a likely rise in interest rates over time;
(2) Implementation risks surrounding the fiscal consolidation plans that
are required to reduce Italy''s stock of debt and keep it at affordable
levels; and
(3) Risks posed by changing funding conditions for European sovereigns
with high levels of debt.
Moody''s review will evaluate the weight of these growing risks in light
of the country''s highrating but also relative to some
credit-strengthening trends that have been observed in recent years and
are expected over the coming years, such as improved fiscal governance,
lower budget deficits and a modest economic recovery.
RATIONALE FOR REVIEW
First, the Italian economy faces growth challenges in an environment
characterized by long-term structural impediments to growth and
potentially rising interest rates. Structural economic weaknesses --
mainly low productivity and important labour and product market
rigidities -- have been a major impediment to growth in the last decade
and continue to hinder the economy''s recovery from the severe recession
it experienced in 2009. Italy has so far only recovered a fraction of the
nearly seven percentage points in GDP that it lost during the global
crisis, despite low interest rates, which are likely to rise in the
medium term. Growth prospects for the Italian economy in the comingyears
will be a crucial factor that will determine the government''s revenues
and the achievement of fiscal consolidation targets.
Second, there are implementation risks to the fiscal consolidation plans
that are required to reduce Italy''s stock of public debt to more
affordable levels. Against a backdrop of rising interest rates and weak
economic growth, the government may find it difficult to generate the
primary surpluses that are needed to place the public debt-to-GDP ratio
and the interest burden on a solid downward trend. The adoption of
additional conservative fiscal policies may prove more difficult in the
near future because the current government''s electoral support is
weakening, with the government facing challenges in gaining public
approval for its policies. For example, the government''s recent energy
and water supply proposals were rejected by popular vote.
Third, the fragile market sentiment that continues to surround European
sovereigns with high levels of debt poses additional risks for Italy.
The continued stability of market demand for Italy''s debt is uncertain
at current yields. Although future policy actions within the euro area
could reduce investors'' concerns and stabilize funding costs, the
opposite is also possible. In any event, going forward, investors appear
likely to differentiate more among euro area sovereign borrowers than
they did prior to the financial crisis, to the disadvantage of euro area
countries with higher-than-average debt burdens, like Italy.
FOCUS OF RATINGS REVIEW
Moody''s review of Italy''s sovereign rating will focus on the growth
prospects for the Italian economy in coming years, and particularly the
prospects for a removal of important structural bottlenecks that could
hinder a stronger economic recovery in the medium term. The review will
also examine the government''s ability to achieve ambitious fiscal
consolidation targets and to implement further plans to generate
substantial primary surpluses in the medium term. This will include an
analysis of the vulnerability of the Italian government debt trajectory
to a rise in risk premia, as well as the options for the government to
react. The government''s new fiscal plan, which is expected to be
announced shortly, will be considered during the review.
In addition, any broader developments across the euro area, in particular
with regard to the resolution of the euro area debt crisis and its impact
on funding costs, could be important determinants of the outcome of
Moody''s rating review.
PREVIOUS RATING ACTION AND METHODOLOGY
Moody''s last rating action affecting Italy was implemented on 15 May 2002,
when the rating agency upgraded Italy''s Aa3 government bond ratings to
Aa2 with a stable outlook. The rating action prior to that was taken on
3 July 1996, when the rating agency upgraded Italy''s A1 government bond
ratings to Aa3.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Sovereign Bond
Ratings", published in September 2008.
Moody''s Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

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 ..era ora..!!
A tavola, che i maccheroni sono pronti...
:-(