Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: mattone

mattone sicuro o azioni???
Dipende da quanto voglio rischiare giusto???
Manuela

 Manuela
Mattone sicuro?
Prova a dirlo agli acquirenti di case a San Francisco o Amburgo, Monaco e
Hong Kong.
Le valutazioni degli immobili sono scese del 45-60%.
Sicurissimo non sembra.
Ciao

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 Dipende da quanto voglio rischiare giusto???
Piu che sul mattone punterei sul foratino ...risparmi sull ' intercapedine.
:-D


Scusa mi citi la fonte di questa informazione ?
Neanche nel 1929 il mattone ha ceduto davvero.
New York aparments
period : 1923-30 (boom)  Annual Return +13,4 per cent
period : 1928-40 (crash) Annual Return -0,4 per cent
period : 1928 - 50          Annual Return +1,6 per cent
fonte : 
http://www.aresnet.org/ARES/pdfs/mtg97/longcycl.pdf
Anche perche' basta pensarci, nei periodi di vera crisi i soldi in banca non
sono sicuri, perche' la banche falliscono. Sotto il materasso molto oro non
si puo' mettere, ed e' molto scomodo come mezzo di pagamento. La casa non te
la toglie nessuno, con la fattoria o la terra poi le galline per le uova, la
mucca per il latte e qualche broccolo ti assicurano che non muori.

 mattone sicuro o azioni???
Domenica 24 Novembre 2002, 13:35
Quotazioni
Standard & Poor's Co...
MIB 30  Migliori & Peggiori
Mercati finanziari: il commento di Renato Di Lorenzo
Di Renato Di Lorenzo
In settimana l'euro si è improvvisamente indebolito, salvo che contro
franco svizzero, che quindi, anche grazie ai tassi bassi, sembra si
appresti a diventare una eccellente valuta di finanziamento. Contro
dollaro però non c'è ancora un serio motivo per cambiare posizione; quindi
le posizioni lunghe sul dollaro devono rimanere ancora coperte.
Il trend al rialzo delle obbligazioni, sia in euro che in dollari, è sulla
retta inferiore di supporto, che potrebbe cedere invertendo la tendenza
rialzista. Nei prossimi giorni gli stop loss vanno quindi osservati con
estrema cura.
Sempre bene le borse. Confermo il target di 1120 per lo S&P 500 (notizie)
intorno al 5 di gennaio. State lunghi.
C'è una bolla speculativa sugli immobili? 
Certamente c'è. 
E' pericolosa? 
Assolutamente sì, perché l'immancabile sgonfiamento andrà a toccare la
montagna di mutui che le banche hanno erogato in questi anni. 
Quando avverrà lo sgonfiamento? 
Non ne ho la minima idea. 
Conclusione? 
E' il caso di andare a investire stabilmente su titoli bancari o ad alto
contenuto patrimoniale immobiliare?
-- 
questo articolo e` stato inviato via web dal servizio gratuito 
http://www.newsland.it/news
 segnala gli abusi ad 
ab...@newsland.it

 >
iIl problema più grosso nel nostro tipo di mercato è che il mattone non ha
mai conosciuto un trend realmente ribassista ...al massimo le quotazioni
degli immobili hanno ristagnato per qualche tempo. Cosa succederà quando
anche da noi il mercato degli immobili si comporterà come gli altri mercati
con rialzi e ribassi????
www.striscialaborsa.com
 (pubblicità progresso eh eh...)


Se e' per investimenti di lungo termine mattone meglio delle azioni. Cosa ti
dice che duri molto il rally ? Se venisse una crisi nera  da fame al massimo
non ci guadagni. Ma non ci perdi.


Allora guru contro guru :-)
---------------------
Is housing's number up?
Stats whiz says home sound fundamental investment
---------------------
By Steve Kerch, 
CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov. 19, 2002
NEW ORLEANS (
CBS.MW
) -- Christopher Cagan is a numbers cruncher who gobbles
differential equations for lunch. His is no financial flirtation: He holds a
doctorate in mathematics from UCLA, so you know he's serious about
statistics.
When Cagan talks about housing and what a great investment it is, the
probability is you'd be well-advised to listen.
"A house is the first, basic, bedrock investment that any young family can
make. And it's the best," Cagan said. "In 10 to 20 years, no matter how much
of bear market there may be in that time, without question that house will
be worth a lot more."
Cagan has been working in the background most of his career. He has analyzed
and developed automated-valuation and price-appreciation models for
residential real-estate technology companies and created a residential price
index for KMPG Peat Marwick. He also was a senior marketing analyst for
PacifiCare Health Systems, one of the largest U.S. health-insurance
companies.
Coming out party
But this month at the National Association of Realtors annual convention
here, Cagan debuted in a new, more prominent role. In his current position
as director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate
Solutions (FAF: news, chart, profile), Cagan figures to spend more time in
the spotlight since his position includes media outreach. He got his first
taste of that in an animated press conference before some of the nation's
top real-estate reporters.
"I'd say there is a bull market going on in housing. But not every bull
market can be called a bubble. People are calling it that because they just
saw one in the stock market, in tech stocks in particular, and so they
assume that's what they see here."
The difference? "A bubble is empty inside. But housing is full of
fundamentals that are sound," Cagan said.
In a CBS MarketWatch interview before his press conference, Cagan said
people's perception of housing prices and how fast they are rising is shaped
mostly by what is happening on the East and West coasts, where Los Angeles,
San Diego, San Francisco, Long Island and New York City have seen strong
double-digit gains.
"It's the areas that tend to be in the public eye that have grown the most.
But there are a lot of other markets in the United States that are not the
superstar markets," he said.
(Even in southern California, Cagan says prices have room to rise further.
The long-term price cycle there is anywhere from 8 to 12 years, with values
running from 35 to 40 percent below long-term trends to 35 to 40 percent
above the trend. But current affordability standards, prices could rise 10
percent or more again next year before tailing off.)
What makes housing such a good investment now is that mortgage payments on
30-year loans are less today than they were 10 years ago, even accounting
for huge price gains, because interest rates have fallen so low.
"The price of a residence should not be thought of as the price that is out
there on the sales contract. It should not be measured as a 'stock' or
'cash' variable. The price is really the small down payment, the monthly
mortgage payment, taxes, insurance and maintenance. It is the total monthly
payment, the 'flow' variable," Cagan said.
Free money
When you add in 6 percent mortgages, expected inflation and the tax
deductibility of mortgage interest, "it's almost like getting free money,"
Cagan said. "And real estate is the classic inflation hedge. Somewhere along
the line, inflation is going to rear its ugly head again."
Cagan studies sales prices, interest rates, employment statistics,
business-cycle models and construction costs per square foot in formulating
his housing numbers. He has figures that drill down all the way to the ZIP
code level. He also looks at long-term demographic trends. And almost all of
what he sees is positive for housing.
"I encourage everyone to buy. And there is no reason not to buy -- to live
in the house, though, not to speculate," Cagan said. "Right now real estate
is in an up-phase, and part of the reason is the stock market. I don't think
people should buy and sell homes like stocks -- there is no day trading in
houses -- and anyway few people buy a house with cash with the idea of
selling it in six months or a year to make a profit."
With the supply of new housing constrained in many areas by slow-growth
policies, about the only time bomb lurking in Cagan's basket of statistics
is unemployment.
"The job market is still good. But if we were to see more massive layoffs,
that could take the steam out of the market," he said.
Cagan's already a Southern California homeowner, so he has been poring over
his county zoning and land-use maps -- another tool -- in search of land
that appears to be prime property for baby-boomer retirement housing.
"I look for the rhythms and the patterns and the flow of land sales, land
that is in the path of growth that I think will be prime for the next wave
of retirement development. I look for cheap areas that are surrounded by
high prices and then go back and look at them. Sometimes something is wrong
with it, but sometimes it's just cheap. That's where I invest," he said.
With a minimum 20-year time horizon, "that's not speculative. I'm not
talking about Florida in the 1920s," he said. "Even before the boomers
retire, they're going to be thinking about what they want to do."
There are 65 million baby boomers. And that number will get any
mathematician's attention.
Steve Kerch is the real estate editor of 
CBS.MarketWatch.com
 in Chicago.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B7181D2E6%2D3463%2D4088%2D8
1C1%2D3804813CC584%7D&siteid=mktw

 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:908E9.17382$2B1.4...@twister2.libero.it...
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 Allora guru contro guru :-)
Ma quale guru?
Ancora ricordo quando postai non molto tempo fa,
un post sul ng, in cui sosteneva tra rialzi e ribassi
primari, secondari, terziari e quaternari, ecc.. di RIMANERE INVESTITI  a
32.500
di mib30.
Guru...see..

Neanche nel 1929 il mattone ha ceduto davvero.
Lo sai a quanto "venivano via"  i grattacieli a Manhattan
durante gli anni 80?
Ci son stati degli anni che costava meno Manhattan che Bordighera

potresti provare con questi due fondi immobiliare che li compri in borsa
oltre il 30 % di sconto rispetto al nav
E fu cosě che lupetta [
lupe...@hotmail.com
] nel messaggio
news:arqpr9$ekf$
1...@lacerta.tiscalinet.it
 scrisse:
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 di liquidità potrebbe cedere immobili.
ah... quando a vendere e' uno con bisogno di liquidita' svende pure ai tempi
di boom economico......

 ha scritto nel messaggio
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Se parliamo di lungo periodo non credo proprio che il mattone abbia reso piů
del mercato azionario.
Nel 1990 il dj valeva 2000 circa, ora vale 9000 circa, fai una botta di
conti, e vedi se il mattone ha avuto la stessa rivalutazione.