Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: The beige book........

 
 
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  September 8, 2004
Full report
 
 
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Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco based on information
collected before September 1, 2004. This document summarizes comments
received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve
System and is not a representation of the views of Federal Reserve
officials.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reports from the Federal Reserve Banks indicated that economic activity
continued to expand in late July and August, although several districts
indicated that the pace had slowed since their last reports. Districts'
characterizations of the rate of expansion ranged from slow (St. Louis) to
solid (San Francisco), with many districts reporting modest or moderate
growth.
Household spending was reported to have softened in many parts of the
nation, reflecting lackluster retail sales and some cooling in new and
existing home sales. Conditions in the manufacturing sector, on the other
hand, improved further nationwide, especially among capital equipment and
other durable goods makers. Residential construction activity remained at
high levels but slowed a bit in some regions; nonresidential construction
remained tepid, as did demand for commercial and industrial space.
Agricultural conditions were mixed and generally tied to the weather. Demand
for consumer loans softened somewhat, but several districts noted increased
commercial lending. Employers in most districts continued to expand
payrolls, though districts reported some unevenness across sectors. While
persistently rapid increases in nonwage labor costs continued to be a
concern for many employers, wage pressures remained modest. Consumer prices
were generally flat or up modestly, although there were noticeable price
increases for energy and some material inputs.
Consumer Spending
Consumer spending was mixed across districts and across products in late
July and August, with the pace of spending slowing on balance relative to
the previous survey period. Retail sales were described as solid in San
Francisco, mixed in Dallas, and softer in New York, Richmond, and Chicago.
Despite the recent slowing in retail sales, several Reserve Banks noted that
sales were still up on a year-over-year basis. By category, a few districts
singled out computers and other electronics and women's accessories and
jewelry as being in particularly strong demand. Sales of back-to-school
items, especially children's apparel, reportedly were disappointing for
retailers in New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and St. Louis. By
contrast, Kansas City indicated that sales of these items were up solidly
from previous years, and Philadelphia noted that they were in line with
merchants' expectations.
With respect to autos, sluggish sales, high inventories, or both were noted
by contacts in Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas. St. Louis,
San Francisco, and Kansas City, on the other hand, reported improvement in
motor vehicle sales. In terms of composition, Kansas City and Dallas
indicated that SUVs and light trucks did not sell as well as smaller
vehicles, though the opposite was true in Atlanta and Chicago.
Business conditions in the travel and tourism sector were reported to be
strong on balance in the districts of San Francisco, Kansas City, Atlanta,
and New York, and in some areas of the Minneapolis and Boston Districts.
Rainy weather in the Northeast and unusually cool weather in northern
Minnesota damped travel to those areas. Hurricane Charley and Tropical Storm
Gaston deterred travel and tourism to some coastal areas in the Richmond
District. The Atlanta District noted that most central Florida tourist
attractions closed for only one day because of the hurricane, and damage to
the theme parks was limited.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Total manufacturing activity increased throughout the country. Districts
noted that manufacturers of durable goods, including many types of capital
equipment, showed the largest increases. Specifically, strong demand was
reported for aerospace products (Boston, Atlanta, and San Francisco), steel
products (St. Louis), industrial machinery (Richmond and Chicago), and IT
products (Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco). In addition, Philadelphia
noted increased demand for instruments and electrical equipment. The few
indications of weakness in selected manufacturing sectors came from the St.
Louis District, which reported that firms in home fixtures, furniture, and
electronic cable manufacturing anticipate plant closings, and the Cleveland
District, where nondurables manufacturers noted high inventories of
finished-goods and flat to falling capacity utilization. Reduced demand for
transportation equipment in the Philadelphia District and for apparel in the
Richmond and Atlanta Districts also was reported.
The generally robust activity in manufacturing boosted demand for
transportation services in many districts. Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis,
and Kansas City reported strong demand for overland shipping services, which
resulted in bottlenecks in freight movement in some areas. According to the
San Francisco District, high volumes of international trade kept several
West Coast seaports operating at capacity, which also led to increased
demand for rail services. Similarly, New York noted that volume through the
Port of New York and New Jersey rose substantially in July and August.
Regarding other services, activity during the survey period was mixed. St.
Louis and San Francisco noted improvement in demand for health-care
services; San Francisco also reported improved demand for the services of
advertising and media firms. In contrast, in the Richmond District, service
firms reported generally weaker customer demand, and the New York District
cited a contact who reported weakened demand in the securities industry.
Boston noted deceleration in demand for software and IT services in late
July and August, despite increased demand for IT hardware.
Real Estate and Construction
Home price appreciation, home sales, and residential construction activity
remained at high levels in most districts, although there were numerous
reports of slight cooling in market activity. Signs of moderation in the
pace of home price appreciation and/or sales were reported by New York,
Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and San
Francisco. The Dallas report described housing markets in Texas as "lively,"
but noted little increase in median home prices this year.
Commercial real estate markets were little changed from the last survey
period. Most districts reported stable but high vacancies and steady but low
rents. That said, there were, scattered reports of improvement. The New York
District reported that the office market in Manhattan strengthened further
in July and the Richmond District noted commercial leasing activity
increased in the Washington, D.C., area. Also, the St. Louis District
indicated slow improvement in commercial and industrial real estate markets.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Agricultural output and conditions in late July and August varied across the
nation, with weather, as usual, playing the key role. Cooler-than-normal
weather in many parts of the country, most notably the agricultural regions
of the St. Louis, Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis Districts, slowed
crop development. The Dallas, Atlanta, and Richmond Districts noted that
excessive rainfall hampered crop development. The Atlanta and Richmond
Districts bore the brunt of Hurricane Charley, though its damage to crops
reportedly was limited to coastal areas. Atlanta reported that the USDA
estimated that Hurricane Charley ruined around 20 percent of this year's
citrus harvest, including about 10 percent of the orange crop.
Higher energy prices continued to encourage oil and gas extraction. Kansas
City reported that the count of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the
region increased slightly from the previous survey period and was up
strongly from a year ago. Oil drilling activity also was reported to have
increased in the Dallas District.
Financial Services and Credit
Loan demand improved on net in many districts in recent weeks, as an uptick
in demand for commercial loans offset some softening in consumer loan
demand. Credit quality for both loan types was steady to slightly improved.
Reports indicate that demand for commercial and industrial loans increased
in the New York, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and San Francisco Districts.
Commercial lending was flat in Philadelphia, Chicago, Kansas City, and
Dallas. Respondents in two of the districts where commercial lending was
flat--Chicago and Kansas City--indicated that loan demand from businesses
was restrained to some extent by the use of internal financing, as the cash
flow of many businesses improved.
On the consumer side, loan demand moderated somewhat in several districts,
largely due to a falloff in mortgage lending. Some districts reported
continued moderate increases in consumer loans, but several noted softening
demand for home purchase and refinance loans. In characterizing home loan
demand, the Chicago and Kansas City Districts indicated slight increases,
and Richmond reported moderate increases. Cleveland, New York, Dallas, and
San Francisco all noted softening in demand for home loans, while
Philadelphia described demand for such loans as mixed.
Labor Markets, Wages, and Prices
Reports from most districts suggest continued gains in jobs during the
recent survey period, although with some uneveness across sectors and
regions. Several districts noted a pickup in demand for temporary service
workers, including those in manufacturing, and one district (Atlanta)
reported an increase in the rate of conversion of temporary workers to
permanent hires. District reports also mentioned increased hiring in the
energy, transportation services, durable goods manufacturing, and
health-care sectors. The Cleveland and San Francisco Districts reported a
pickup in labor demand among banks. Hiring reportedly was more subdued among
producers of nondurable goods and selected services firms. In some cases,
job losses were recorded: apparel manufacturers continued to shed jobs in
the Atlanta District, and some financial and educational services providers
scaled back employment in the St. Louis District.
Wage increases remained modest overall, although there were reports of
upward wage pressures for selected occupations and industries. Reports
indicated that wage pressures were building for skilled workers, and
remaining flat for other types of workers. District reports continued to
note concerns among businesses about the rising cost of health care and
other employee benefits.
The reports indicated that consumer prices were generally flat or up
modestly in late July and August, although they continued to cite noticeable
price increases for oil, natural gas, steel, lumber, cement, concrete, and
other building materials. This characterization of price developments was
widespread across the districts. In addition, Cleveland and Dallas noted
price increases for processed foods, and Chicago indicated that higher oil
prices have driven up the cost of plastics, rubber, and other
petroleum-based materials. Despite the high oil prices, however, two
districts (Minneapolis and Dallas) reported that gasoline prices had
increased only moderately if at all. In this regard, refiners in the Dallas
District reported that the steep rise in crude oil prices relative to
gasoline has squeezed margins.
 
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Il beige book dice che si può salire......................
Buonanotte......
--------------------------------
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http://arianna.libero.it/usenet/

dai, cosi' e' impossibile...fammi un riassuntino di max due righe, non fare
il lavativo.
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se leggi in fondo.......

 ha scritto nel messaggio
news:eJK%c.280641$5D1.12...@news4.tin.it...

--->e chi ce la fa ad arrivare in fondo?! ^__^



****** concordo :-)) ******

 ****** concordo :-)) ******
Bighelloni!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:-)
P.s. 'st'attentati adesso mi stanno rompendo veramente......stasera contatto
l'astronave madre e vi faccio radere al suolo! Terrestri pazzi!


 Il beige book dice che si può salire......................
...ma ha pure detto che il rientro dal deficit commerciale richiederà misure
severe...
Ocio...


Rialzeranno i tassi.............infondo è quello di cui hanno bisogno
maggiormente.....
Poi che a fine 2005 metà 2006 rientreranno in recessione è un altro
discorso.....adesso voglio godermi i nuovi massimi che faranno....
E adesso ocio al rimbalzone...............fib30 target 27715......
;-)


 E adesso ocio al rimbalzone...............fib30 target 27715......
...domani o lunedě
...questione di timing...
;-)))