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Titolo: INTERVIEW WITH DR. KURT RICHEBACHER ... mette paura

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December 24, 2002
INTERVIEW WITH DR. KURT RICHEBACHER
Dr. Kurt Richebacher has shown an uncanny ability to spot future
economic
problems. This former chief economist of the Dresdner Bank warned
about the
recession and the NASDAQ crash months before they happened. He
forecast the
collapse of the Asian Tigers in 1998 and blew the whistle on corporate
profit tricks long before Enron. When virtually everyone was certain
of a
V-shaped recovery, he argued that it was impossible.
A master of classical economics, and perhaps, the best analytical
economic
thinker in the world today, Dr. Richebacher writes a monthly
newsletter,
"The Richebacher Letter." Given his impressive record of accurate
warnings
and predictions in the face of almost unanimous disagreement from
establishment economists, we think the following interview should be
read
with deep thought and reflection.
Q Back in March of 1997 you warned that serious problems loom in the
heavily
indebted miracle economies of the Far East. What caused you to spot
this
problem?
A Their boom was credit induced. They went heavily into debt to
overbuild.
Q Same old story?
A Yes, runaway money and credit growth and the typical symptoms
associated
with overheating economies - inflation, speculation and financial
excess.
Q Then in June of 1998 you said, "Later this year the U.S. economy
will
abruptly slow down." What did you see?
A Earnings were faltering and corporations were favoring
self-defeating
financial tricks and accounting ploys, including heavy speculation and
leveraging. I wrote that a few were immensely enriched by exploding
paper
wealth, but savings and capital formation were deplorable.
Q Then you predicted the collapse of the stock market and the
technology
bubble. How?
A The great speculative manias in history were connected with
innovations
that generated great popular excitement. That was the case with the
Internet
and, along with it you had the ever-present deluge of money and
credit. Yes,
I wrote that a bear market was inevitable.
Q Late in 1999 you were calling it a classic speculative blowoff. Why
you
and nobody else? I mean, Lawrence Kudlow was saying the Internet was
more
important than the Fed, and the Dow would be 30,000, then 50,000 and
higher.
A Yes, this kind of nonsense was helping to fuel the Wall Street boom.
We
expected that a sharp decline in tech stocks would be a death blow to
the
greater U.S. stock market bubble, and it was.
Q In the fall of 2000 the belief was widespread that the U.S. economy
would
have a soft landing. What were your thoughts on that?
A Well, I wrote hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy were
completely
misplaced. The credit excesses of the late 1990s were many times worse
than
those in the 1980s and even those of the 1920s. So were the imbalances
in
the economy and the financial system. You only needed to notice the
zero
personal savings rate and the stupendous trade deficit. To speak of
the U.S.
economy's excellent fundamentals in the face of these disastrous facts
required a lot of stupidity.
Q Was it the worst credit bubble in history?
A Absolutely.
Q What did you say about the V-shaped recovery that all the experts
were
predicting back then?
A I wrote that it will come as a great surprise how fast the U.S.
economy
weakens in the near future.
Q What did you base the prediction on?
A Profits were collapsing, heavily indebted corporations were slowing
their
spending and new investment in capital goods had caved in. Serious
problems
were everywhere.
Q That brings us up to today. Will we tip over into recession again?
A Yes. Drastic weakness of the U.S. economy is the great shock waiting
to
happen for the world. A slumping dollar will turn it into a nightmare.
Q How can you be so certain? Most economists see a recovery.
A I am dismayed at the low level of U.S. economic thinking. Elementary
insights into economic processes that have been accepted by all
schools of
thought for more than 200 years are unknown, discarded or even put on
their
head. The facts are that you have serious structural problems that
exclude
any possibility of a sustained economic recovery.
Q Such as?
A A profits decline, a record savings shortfall, a capital spending
collapse, an unprecedented consumer borrowing and spending binge, a
massive
current account deficit, ravaged balance sheets and record high debt
levels.
Q Sounds terrible. Is one just as bad as the other?
A Tops among them are the depression of profits and capital spending.
They
propel each other downward in a vicious spiral.
Q Why are there no mainstream economists saying anything like this?
A Not only economists, but U.S. policymakers and the public are in
denial of
the gravity of the economic and financial situation.
Q But why?
A The main problem is a lack of understanding and blind faith in the
omnipotence of the Federal Reserve.
Q Well, the Fed has aggressively lowered rates. It's worked in the
past hasn
't it?
A This downturn differs dramatically from all previous postwar
recessions.
It hasn't been brought about by tight money, but by unsustainable
spending
excesses that have left behind an overextended financial system.
Q You mean low interest rates aren't working?
A For the first time in the whole postwar period, the U.S. economy and
even
the stock market has slumped against a backdrop of the most aggressive
rate
cuts by the Federal Reserve and the most rampant money and credit
growth
ever. The forces depressing the U.S. economy this time are radically
different from those that fueled past recession.
Q In what respect?
A The profits implosion is the most obvious and the most important.
Q The Fed has pushed down rates to prop up spending. You say low rates
aren'
t working, but people are taking advantage of the low rates to keep
spending, aren't they?
A That's right. America is fighting the recession with still more
consumer
spending excesses.
Q Could the consumer keep the ship afloat?
A Consumer sentiment has been falling. More importantly, the economics
data
for the past several months conclusively suggests that the American
consumer
has started to retrench.
Q You never hear that.
A Nobody wants to believe it. One reason may be that there is nothing
else
in sight to prop up the U.S. economy.
Q But isn't the consumer's income still growing?
A No, growth has stalled and a lot of the growth that there was came
from
the tax cut.
Q So, consumer spending may stagnate?
A Especially if the consumer continues to rebuild savings, which has
just
recently been running at three to four percent of disposable income.
This
will probably increase in the future. That's the kind of thing that
will end
the borrowing and spending excesses of the boom.
Q Why?
A Any rise in savings exerts a drag on economic growth and this
squeezes
profits.
Q Well, so far the consumer hasn't slackened measurably.
A They have postponed the day of reckoning by loading themselves with
more
debt. Much of this debt can't be repaid.
Q As you say, people have faith in the monetary authorities. That's
one
reason they keep spending.
A This faith is utterly amazing. It overwhelms the facts. It's based
on the
Federal Reserve creating money and credit with reckless abandon and
the
consumer borrowing and spending with reckless abandon. Nobody seems to
understand the extraordinary excesses of these two and how they have
been
responsible for the present economic and financial mess.
Q I have to agree with you. People don't see anything foreboding in
these
developments.
A It's time they did. The economic news is going from bad to worse.
Never
before has the world experienced such massive destruction of stock
market
wealth and never before have business profits and business capital
spending
suffered such steep declines.
Q You see business profits as key to the whole crisis don't you?
A We have continually warned of the economy's unusually poor profit
performance during the prior boom years. As the economy sharply slowed
during 2001, it turned into a virtual profit implosion. Profit margins
are
at their lowest since the Depression in the 1930s. Moreover, there is
nothing in sight that might reverse this progressive profit erosion.
Q What are the consequences?
A CEO's have capitulated to the profits disaster. Their solution has
been a
savage curtailment of their investment spending.
Q Why are investment spending and capital formation so important?
A In the end, it is all about capital investment. It is the critical
mass in
the process of economic growth that generates all the things that make
for
rising wealth and living standards. Capital investment means the
construction of new buildings, plants and equipment. This creates
demand,
employment, income, profits and tangible wealth. The installation of
these
capital goods creates growing supply, productivity, employment,
incomes and
profits that, by the way, also repay the debts. Always remember that
capital
formation is strategic for generating general prosperity.
Q Okay. So, what's causing the profits decline that's ruining capital
investment?
A First, let me say that when you consider the key role of profits in
shaping economic activity, it's puzzling how little attention this
exceptional profits carnage is getting. Especially since there is
nothing in
sight that might improve U.S. corporate profitability and stimulate
business
capital investment.
Q Give us the cause of the profits problem.
A Corporate cost cutting, for one. The widespread measures that
individual
firms take to improve their own profits have, in the aggregate, the
opposite
effect on the profits of other firms. Business spending is the key
source of
business revenues, not consumer spending. A retrenchment in business
spending cuts business revenues. Higher profits and higher prosperity
cannot
possibly come out of general cost cutting.
Q What else impacts profits?
A Rising depreciation charges on plants and equipment are a drag on
profits.
Q And?
A Corporations took on an enormous amount of new debt and the interest
charges are a record high expense. For example, in 1997, interest
expense
accounted for 23% of manufacturing profits; in 2001 for almost 100%.
Q But this borrowed money went into productive assets that improved
profits,
didn't it?
A Very little went to net new investment. It's great bulk went into
mergers,
acquisitions and stock repurchases, adding nothing to the economy's
productive capacity. Huge amounts were dissipated in worthless
goodwill,
reflecting absurdly high payments for acquisitions.
Q None of this borrowing helped profits?
A No. As profits went down, corporations effectively devastated their
balance sheets and credit ratings. The deterioration in credit quality
has
been unbelievable.
Q Let's get back to the discussion about the profits problem. Any
other big
drags on profits?
A The most important one of all. The U.S. trade deficit has ravaged
U.S.
business profits. In four years this deficit has soared from $128
billion to
$450 billion annually.
Q How does the trade deficit squeeze profits?
A By directing current income and spending away from domestic
producers to
foreign producers. The trade deficit implements a direct transfer of
profits
from the United States to foreign countries. Considering the deficits
monstrous size, it massacres U.S. profits.
Q What does this profits decline imply for the stock market?
A U.S. stocks today are still overvalued. The worst part of the bear
markets
is still to come and it will result in the wholesale destruction of
the
financial wealth derived from the bubble economy.
Q Only a few years ago we heard stories about an endless boom and a
new era.
What went wrong?
A Americans new brand of capitalism didn't work. Corporate managers
concentrated on creating shareholder value through stock buybacks,
cost
cutting, mergers and acquisitions. This strategy helped drive share
price to
absurdly high levels, but the effects on the economy were destructive.
Q Why?
A Mr. Cook, these strategies do not build factories. They do not
increase
business revenue. To the extent that they curb new investment, which
they
do, they reduce profits.
Q Could you elaborate?
A Rising prosperity and rising living standards do not come from
existing
factories, but from new factories. It's not productivity that creates
wealth. It's investment spending alone and not consumer spending that
propels economic growth. The wealth effects of free enterprise have
always
accrued through the building of factories, not through the stock
market or
reckless consumer borrowing and spending.
Q You mean these companies used their capital for financial
engineering and
speculation rather than building productive facilities?
A Absolutely. As an example, most of the profits in the high tech
sector
came from huge gains in the stock market.
Q Are you saying the new information technology didn't deliver
profits?
A Yes, and it's the greatest irony that the worst profit numbers have
come
from the high tech sector for which Wall Street was trumpeting
unprecedented
miracles of productivity and profit growth. These poor profits
subsequently
turned into a profits collapse.
Q What's your explanation for this failure?
A The importance of information and information technology for
production
and wealth creation was ridiculously overestimated.
Q Doesn't high tech have the greatest productivity gains?
A Such productivity growth is statistical hot air.
Q I won't go there. I know you think hedonic pricing is statistical
nonsense.
A When you see this statistical fudging, it makes us wonder if
systematic
delusion lies behind these practices.
Q Okay, let's move on. You didn't mention the effect on corporate
balance
sheets of the new era financing of mergers, acquisitions and stock
buybacks.
A Corporate managers leveraged their balance sheets with the
recklessness of
desperadoes who have everything to gain in the short run and nothing
to lose
in the long run. They ruined their balance sheets to conceal and
offset the
increasingly disappointing profit performance.
Q Sounds ugly.
A They substituted more expensive debt for equity. The trick was to
fool
investors by shrinking the number of shares.
Q I have to say that you were blowing the whistle on these dubious
practices
long before anyone else.
A The sudden outbreak of profit chicanery was based on the common
desire to
hide a disastrous profit performance. That's the key point to
recognize.
Q Some would argue that it lifted share prices?
A Only temporarily. At best they are saddled with debt that depresses
profits and at worst they've ruined their reputations and their
future.
Q What are the ramifications of taking on so much debt?
A Declining credit availability for corporations and the possibility
of a
credit crunch. Badly ravaged, highly fragile balance sheets and very
poor
profit performance have severely reduced corporate creditworthiness. I
cannot imagine a good outcome from this predicament.
Q Let's talk for a moment about savings. What are your concerns about
the
low savings rate?
A Savings is the indispensable condition for economic growth. Without
savings out of current income there can't be an increase in productive
facilities or capital stock.
Q How come economists here don't see this as a problem?
A There's a general refusal to see reality. The total carnage of
national
savings is the U.S. economy's most important predicament. This is the
economy's supply of capital.
Q What's happened to the savings we've already accrued?
A They've been squandered to pay for spending the consumers can't
afford
from their current income. And corporations have been funding dividend
payments out of their retained earnings.
Q What happens to countries with low savings?
A They have low investment, low wages and low profits.
Q But the government economists and the Fed are saying we don't have
to get
it done with savings; we can do it with spending and credit. What
about
that?
A Ha! I don't think you can turn vice into virtue.
Q Why not?
A Credit creates spending power out of nothing. Credit alone can't
sustain a
growing economy for long. Today's soaring debt load has to be repaid.
I have
little doubt that a debt crisis lies ahead. When most of the debt is
used
for unproductive purposes like consuming and speculation, it must
eventually
lead into a debt trap. The reckless pursuit of debt is economic
insanity.
Q A lot of this is mortgage refinancing isn't it?
A One is tempted to say that the American public is monetizing their
homes.
Q And this alarms you?
A I can only say that in Europe to use one's home as collateral is
something
that neither homeowners nor bankers would consider, except perhaps in
the
case of an emergency.
Q I've never heard any American economist or Wall Street spokesman
speak
against it. In fact, they encourage it.
A No doubt. Mortgage refinancing and home equity lending have been at
the
epicenter of the credit explosion. I must admit to have grossly
underestimated this component of the American bubble. I can only say
it has
removed any doubts that this is by far the greatest and the worst
credit
bubble that the world has ever seen.
Q But only you and a small handful of critics make mention of it. The
public
likes it and everybody in the mortgage business is making hay.
A They should enjoy it while they can. The U.S. financial system today
hangs
in a precarious position. It's a house of cards built on nothing but
financial leverage, credit excess, speculation and derivatives.
Q Are we going to fall down and go boom?
A I would say prepare for much worse to come.
Q What's the nature of this recession you predict?
A It will prove unusually severe and long.
Q Why?
A The key to fathoming the severity of the future crisis lies in
appreciating the vulnerability of an economy and financial system that
have
for years been exposed to the most reckless financial expansion and
speculation in history.
Q That's Austrian business cycle theory, right?
A Yes, the length and severity of recessions or depressions depend
critically on the magnitude of the dislocations and imbalances that
have
accumulated in the economy during the preceding boom.
Q And that's why you consistently predicted that the U.S. economy was
in for
a hard landing?
A Yes. Allow me to summarize. The U.S. economy of the 1990s ranks as
the
worst bubble economy in history. The boom was built on nothing but
leverage
upon leverage. A vanishing supply of domestic savings was more than
subsidized by boundless credit creation for leveraging asset holdings.
Q And the Fed's the culprit?
A The all-important thing to see is that the Federal Reserve abandoned
any
control of money and credit creation. The power of the American credit
machine to create credit out of the blue is unique and unprecedented.
Q Well, some would say it's saved the economy.
A This excessive monetary looseness has only postponed and magnified
the
coming inevitable crisis.
Q Let's talk about the dollar. You have said that it will weaken, and
to
some extent, it has. Is there more weakness to come?
A We regard it as an inescapable event. Growing disillusionment with
the
U.S. economy is the trigger.
Q But doesn't the world like a strong dollar?
A It suited the rest of the world because it boosted their exports and
it
suited the United States as a boost to its financial markets. In
actual
fact, the huge capital inflows have become the U.S. financial markets'
single most important pillar. Take this pillar away, and those markets
will
instantly collapse with devastating effects for the U.S. economy,
turning
quickly into a savage credit crunch.
Q Could it happen that fast?
A The fact is that the exposure of the U.S. financial markets to
foreign
investors and lenders has grown to such preposterous magnitude during
recent
years that controlled, gradual dollar devaluation no longer appears
feasible. Under today's extreme circumstances, the alternative is only
between a strong and a collapsing dollar.
Q Is there any cure for that?
A In order to avoid the worst, the Fed may be forced to drastically
raise in
terest rates?
Q My goodness!
A The dangers that loom on the currency front are immense. The grossly
overleveraged U.S. financial system is hostage to a strong dollar and
permanent, huge capital inflows. The U.S. trade deficit and the
accumulated
foreign indebtedness have reached a scale that defies any possible
action by
central banks. The fate of the dollar is beyond any control.
Q Thank you, sir.

 
Un po' lunga ma veramente molto interessante, grazie.
Specialmente il concetto che e' il risparmio, e non i debiti a far
crescere l'economia andrebbe ripetuto in ogni occasione.
Invece, ci tocca vedere quell'insulsa pubblicita' che invita a
spendere...
se io consumo le mie risorse per qualcosa di inutile, l'economia girera'
anche, ma non per molto.
Ciao
Jorge Luis


Se questo eminente profeta di sventure economiche ci azzecca
anche questa volta,e temo proprio che abbia ragione,sono guai grossi
in vista.
Speriamo che questa volta non ci azzecchi...
giosusa