Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Stress test

Per prima cosa vi ricordo che non ho mai lavorato mai un giorno in vita mia 
ci tengo molto a questa cosa.
Stress test results for the biggest European banks are due out on July 23,
2010, while the largest U.S. banks took their first stress tests in May
2009. But most people don't really care how much stress their banks are
under; they are more worried about their own stress levels. One thing that
adds to personal stress is worrying about whether their deposits are in a
safe place. Bob Prechter has encouraged people to find the safest banks for
their money since he originally wrote his New York Times best-selling book,
Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
in 2002. This excerpt explains why banks of all sizes are riskier than they
used to be (think about portfolios stuffed with derivatives, emerging market
debt and non-performing commercial loans). You can also get a list of the
Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks -- two banks per state -- that was just updated in
late June with the latest available data by joining Club EWI and receiving
EWI's Safe Banks report.
* * * * *
Excerpted from Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a
Deflationary Depression, by Robert Prechter
Many major national and international banks around the world have huge
portfolios of "emerging market" debt, mortgage debt, consumer debt and weak
corporate debt. I cannot understand how a bank trusted with the custody of
your money could ever even think of buying bonds issued by Russia or
Argentina or any other unstable or spendthrift government. As At the Crest
of the Tidal Wave put it in 1995, "Today's emerging markets will soon be
submerging markets." That metamorphosis began two years later. The fact that
banks and other investment companies can repeatedly ride such "investments"
all the way down to write-offs is outrageous.
Many banks today also have a shockingly large exposure to leveraged
derivatives such as futures, options and even more exotic instruments. The
underlying value of assets represented by such financial derivatives at
quite a few big banks is greater than the total value of all their deposits.
The estimated representative value of all derivatives in the world today is
$90 trillion, over half of which is held by U.S. banks. Many banks use
derivatives to hedge against investment exposure, but that strategy works
only if the speculator on the other side of the trade can pay off if he's
wrong.
Relying upon, or worse, speculating in, leveraged derivatives poses one of
the greatest risks to banks that have succumbed to the lure. Leverage almost
always causes massive losses eventually because of the psychological stress
that owning them induces. You have already read of the tremendous debacles
at Barings Bank, Long-Term [sic] Capital Management, Enron and other
institutions due to speculating in leveraged derivatives. It is traditional
to discount the representative value of derivatives because traders will
presumably get out of losing positions well before they cost as much as what
they represent. Well, maybe. It is at least as common a human reaction for
speculators to double their bets when the market goes against a big
position. At least, that's what bankers might do with your money.
Today's bank analysts assure us, as a headline from The Atlanta
Journal-Constitution put it on December 29, 2001, that "Banks [Are]
Well-Capitalized." Banks today are indeed generally considered well
capitalized compared to their situation in the 1980s. Unfortunately, that
condition is mostly thanks to the great asset mania of the 1990s, which, as
explained in Book One, is probably over. Much of the record amount of credit
that banks have extended, such as that lent for productive enterprise or
directly to strong governments, is relatively safe. Much of what has been
lent to weak governments, real estate developers, government-sponsored
enterprises, stock market speculators, venture capitalists, consumers (via
credit cards and consumer-debt "investment" packages), and so on, is not.
One expert advises, "The larger, more diversified banks at this point are
the safer place to be." That assertion will surely be severely tested in the
coming depression.
There are five major conditions in place at many banks that pose a danger:
(1) low liquidity levels, (2) dangerous exposure to leveraged derivatives,
(3) the optimistic safety ratings of banks' debt investments, (4) the
inflated values of the property that borrowers have put up as collateral on
loans and (5) the substantial size of the mortgages that their clients hold
compared both to those property values and to the clients' potential
inability to pay under adverse circumstances. All of these conditions
compound the risk to the banking system of deflation and depression.
Financial companies are enjoying big advances in the current stock market
rally. Depositors today trust their banks more than they trust government or
business in general. For example, a recent poll asked web surfers which
among a list of seven types of institutions they would most trust to operate
a secure identity service. Banks got nearly 50 percent of the vote. General
bank trustworthiness is yet another faith that will be shattered in a
depression.
Well before a worldwide depression dominates our daily lives, you will need
to deposit your capital into safe institutions. I suggest using two or more
to spread the risk even further. They must be far better than the ones that
today are too optimistically deemed "liquid" and "safe" by both rating
services and banking officials.
1lm Luciano

 ci tengo molto a questa cosa.
dannazione ... c'avessi avuto pure io lo zio ricco....

 ci tengo molto a questa cosa.
...
non offenderti...quest'affermazione sa un po di demente.

 Per prima cosa vi ricordo che non ho mai lavorato mai...
...quindi, hai lavorato... 

 ha scritto
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