Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: OT ( visto che qui gli argomenti sono altri )

Today, the recent strong buildup of supportive volume led to a first rally 
in six sessions on the NASDAQ 100 index and the DOW. During the upswing, the 
market generated a surplus of resistive volume (chart reference: a one-day 
view; apply a 15-minute VMA), but this volume registers only as a small 
protrusion on a 5-day chart with a 60-minute VMA - we do not think it should 
significantly hamper the market's progress to the upside at this time.
As outlined yesterday, our new call is for a mid-term uptrend, as we see the 
current market picture being dominated by the recent significant addition of 
supportive volume. We believe the two latest VMA spikes to the downside that 
can be seen on a 15-day chart (apply a 180-minute VMA setting) will act as a 
strong catalyst in the near future, putting the bulls back in charge over 
the mid-term.
A 60-day chart (with a 240-minute or a 1-day VMA setting) shows the volume 
situation as it has been evolving since mid-April. Note the dominant VMA 
spikes to the downside on April 15 and April 21. These two volume surges 
still control the mid-term volume landscape; they have not been eclipsed by 
the resistive volume spikes that subsequently appeared and brought about the 
modest mid-term correction we now believe has ended.
We believe the large VMA spikes to the downside produced on June 23 and 
during the morning of June 27 (see a 5-day chart with a 60-minute VMA for 
more detail) will drive an extension of the previous mid-term uptrend.
*************************************************************************************
Our outlook for the long-term currently remains unchanged: we continue to 
see a high probability that the market will continue along its long-term 
uptrend.
***************************************************

Oil prices lost some of their hypnotically attractive power today, as crude 
pulled back. This was seen as a catalyst for the market to push higher after 
several days (up to six for the DOW and for the NASDAQ 100) of market 
weakness. Some commentators speculate that crude oil has now topped out - at 
least for the short term - implying that the stock market will profit from 
this turn of events.
As we noted yesterday, there are only a few trading days left in this month 
and quarter. This will perhaps put pressure on some fund managers who have 
not yet squared their positions. There is again talk of a possible 
end-of-quarter window-dressing rally
The newest consumer confidence data released today had a boosting effect on 
the market. The confidence of consumers seems to have perked up in June, as 
it rose more than economists had anticipated for a second consecutive 
month - in spite of oil's relentless climb.
The newest consumer confidence data released today had a boosting effect on 
the market. The confidence of consumers seems to have perked up in June, as 
it rose more than economists had anticipated for a second consecutive 
month - in spite of oil's relentless climb; however, opinions diverge 
sharply over whether oil's march to the $60 level will allow for positive 
consumer confidence numbers in the near future. While some analysts seem to 
think that the current positive mood will spill over, others say that 
because the numbers predate $60 oil, consumers' confidence levels will 
likely recede. As long as sentiment levels stay around above 90, confidence 
levels should remain consistent with a phase of moderate economic growth. 
The current level for June is 105.8; it was the highest since June 2002 
where the index hit 106.3.