Newsgroup: it.economia.borsa
Titolo: Orsotò questo è un nostro collega  che dici?

      Tehran: 14:57 ,  2008/07/03  Print version    Email this to a friend
      By Chandra Muzaffar
      Dollar's reign coming to an end?
      TEHRAN, July 3 (MNA) -- One of the most significant trends in the 
global economy in recent years has been the decline of the U.S. dollar. It 
is a trend that has far-reaching consequences for all the inhabitants of 
this planet.
      It is partly because the U.S. dollar has declined so much in value 
since 2003 that the price of oil -- a lot of the oil trade is denominated in 
the dollar -- has shot up. According to an analyst, "Against a basket of 
currencies, the dollar has fallen by 25 percent since 2003, and considerably 
more since its peak in 2001." What this means is that the dollar value of a 
barrel of oil today is much more than it was 5 years ago. Of course, there 
are other reasons why the price of oil is escalating.
      Since oil is the lifeblood of contemporary civilization, the steep 
price hike has impacted upon all areas of life. With the higher cost of 
living, not only the poor but even those who are at the lower echelons of 
the middle class are struggling to make ends meet. The increase in food 
prices on a global scale, for instance, is linked to oil. The rising costs 
of both food and oil -- it has to be reiterated -- are directly connected to 
the decline of the dollar.
      The adverse consequences of the declining dollar go beyond oil and 
food. Since the U.S. runs huge trade deficits with countries like China and 
Japan, the declining dollar will not be in the interest of the latter. 
Neither will it be in the interest of countries which hold most of their 
foreign exchange reserves in the dollar. A number of them are already 
feeling the effects of the diminishing value of their reserves.
      It is not surprising, therefore, that countries are converting part or 
all of their reserves into other currencies, notably the euro. Some 
oil-producing countries are also switching to other currencies. As expected, 
these moves have further weakened the dollar.
      The U.S. is not happy about this, though a weaker dollar may boost its 
exports and reduce its trade deficit marginally. The U.S. knows that it is 
the dominant position of the dollar that enables it to exercise global 
financial and economic hegemony. It is because the dollar is the world's 
reserve currency that the U.S. has so much political clout in the 
international arena. This is why the dollar has been described as one of the 
two principal pillars of U.S. global hegemony, the other being its military 
power.
      It explains why the U.S. leadership was so incensed when former Iraqi 
president Saddam Hussein abandoned the dollar and switched to the euro in 
2000. He also converted Iraq's 10 billion reserve fund at the UN to euros. 
Commentators have argued that it was partly because of these decisions that 
the U.S. and British governments pushed hard for the invasion of Iraq, which 
at the time of the currency switch was already under tough UN sanctions.
      Since 2002, Iran, currently the world's second largest oil exporter, 
has converted all its foreign exchange reserves to a basket of currencies, 
excluding the dollar. In the second quarter of 2008, it went further and 
decided to denominate its entire oil trade in currencies other than the 
dollar. Is it any wonder that Israel, the United States' closest ally, has 
become more bellicose in its threats against Iran in recent weeks? Of 
course, there are also other motives behind the attempts by the U.S., Israel 
and their other Western allies to undermine Iran.
      For the U.S., any move by a major oil exporter to wean itself away 
from the dollar is a direct challenge to its hegemonic power. Look at its 
continuous maneuvers to undermine Venezuela's democratically elected 
president after Hugo Chavez placed a portion of his country's oil trade out 
of the dollar's orbit. It is not difficult to fathom why the U.S. is so 
obsessed with perpetuating the oil-dollar nexus. It is partly because most 
of the oil trade -- more than any other trade -- is denominated in the 
dollar that the U.S. currency is able to dominate the world economy. In 
fact, it was the United States' agreement with Saudi Arabia in 1974 that the 
oil trade would be denominated in the dollar which gave a huge lift to the 
dollar's reign. The U.S. will fight tooth and nail to ensure that that reign 
continues.
      But the supremacy of the dollar must end if U.S. hegemony is to end. 
U.S. hegemony -- like all hegemonies in history -- has been a bane upon 
humanity. It has brought death and destruction to millions through wars and 
conflicts. It has widened the gap between the 'have-a-lot' and the 
'have-a-little' right across the globe. It has reinforced global 
authoritarianism and stymied the growth of global democracy and 
international law. It has given rise to antagonism and antipathy between 
civilizations, especially between the Western and Muslim worlds. It has 
denied equality and respect to civilizations and cultures outside the West. 
It has led to global environmental degradation and a global climate crisis. 
Global hegemony has also provoked a vile and vicious reaction. in the form 
of global terror.
      This is why citizen groups in both the Global South and the Global 
North should campaign with greater vigor to bring global hegemony to an end 
by weakening the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. More 
oil-producing countries should be persuaded to switch from the dollar to 
other currencies. In international trade, countries should shift to other 
currencies which are more conducive to their short and long-term interests. 
If foreign reserves are still in dollars, a concerted endeavor should be 
made to convert them into other currencies which will at least protect their 
value. Citizen groups should also encourage their governments and 
corporations to accelerate regional trade and investment which could be 
conducted in their own currencies. Some Latin American states, such as Cuba, 
Venezuela and Bolivia, are showing greater enthusiasm for regional 
cooperation with the ultimate goal of ensuring that their continent is 
liberated once and for all from U.S. dominance and control. Cuba and 
Venezuela have even stepped up barter trade, the former's health expertise 
in exchange for the latter's oil, which minimizes altogether the role of 
money. Intra-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) trade and 
investment have also increased significantly in recent years. With the 
emergence of China and India as important economic players, ASEAN and other 
states in Asia should consider using one of the major Asian currencies for 
regional trade and not continue to depend upon the U.S. dollar.
      Quite apart from all these efforts, citizen groups should demand 
comprehensive reform of the international financial system. This is the 
right time to make this demand. They should make it abundantly clear to all 
and sundry that the dollar can no longer serve as the world's reserve 
currency. It has to be replaced. Shouldn't we start working now -- even if 
it takes a few decades -- towards a common world currency which is not 
linked to any particular nation or region that can be used for international 
trade? Why shouldn't we let our imagination run ahead of reality at a time 
like this?
      Dr. Chandra Muzaffar is the president of the International Movement 
for a Just World (JUST) and Professor of Global Studies at Universiti Sains 
Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia.
      (July 3 Tehran Times Opinion Column, by Chandra Muzaffar)

      Dollar's reign coming to an end?
E comunque non sono d'accordo con la fine del regno del dollaro.....sì...ha 
perso un po' del suo appeal....ma quale moneta potrà 
sostituirlo....l'euro..lo yuan...la rupia..il rublo? Non credo che, a parte 
l'europa se l'est continua a macinare, tutte queste economie possano 
superare quella USA nel giro di qualche decina di anni.... 

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