Newsgroup: it.discussioni.energie-alternative
Titolo: Il fotovoltaico cresce anche in Svezia

 
Dopo le notizie di un fotovoltaico competitivo in Finlandia, ecco anche la
Svezia:
 
https://www.pv-tech.org/alight-to-build-swedens-largest-solar-farms-signs-ppas/
 
 
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Alight has signed agreements to build three solar parks in Sweden that
according to the company will be the largest in Sweden once built with a
total installed capacity of 90MW.
(...)
Axel Johnson and co will buy all the electricity produced for at least ten
years at a fixed price to protect themselves against volatility in the
electricity market. Its president and CEO, Mia Livfors, said the
announcement marked a “significant leap forward for the Swedish market for
large-scale solar energy”.
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"Photovolatility: What’s caused the surging price of PV modules?"
 
"Several factors have overseen an increase in the price of modules.
  Some of them look sure to ease, while others may be more persistent."
 
"Module prices have risen by up to 25% in the last year as the cost
  of raw materials and transportation have soared, dampening downstream
  demand and disrupting the entire solar supply chain. The main driver
  of this has been an increase in the price of polysilicon, almost
  tripling in cost since its low in 2020. While analysts believe the
  cost of polysilicon, and in turn modules, will come down, there is
  uncertainty as to when, with most predicting higher prices continuing
  into 2022."
 
Ripeto:
 
"The main driver of this has been an increase in the price of
  polysilicon, almost tripling in cost since its low in 2020."
 
Continua:
 
"While polysilicon supply is the most significant factor impacting
  module costs, shipping chaos borne from COVID-19 has also caused
  upward pressure on prices. As the true significance of the pandemic
  dawned in March 2020, both demand and supply of freight collapsed
  as countries around the world went into lockdown. Since then, demand
  has recovered but supply, beset by COVID-19 complications, has not
  increased to meet it, resulting in significantly higher transport
  costs. While polysilicon prices are expected to fall next year,
  shipping costs are not, with insiders telling PV Tech Power that
  the freight industry may never be the same again."
 
"The price of basic monofacial modules at the factory gate in China
  rose from below US$0.19/w last summer to US$0.24/w as of August,
  according to Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at BloombergNEF
  (BNEF), and prices look set to rise further still in the short term.
  This was largely due to fierce demand for polysilicon coupled with
  curtailed availability. As a result, wafer manufacturers sought to
  lock in supply, signing long term contracts that put further upward
  pressure on prices. Compounding this was glass shortages and increases
  in the cost of silver at the end of 2020, although these pressures
  have abated. Analysts expect last year’s supply shortages to end as
  some of the largest manufacturers bring significant capacity expansions
  online."
 
Ho trovato la notizia usando la logica. Se il prezzo dell'energia in
Cina sta aumentando (per la fine del carbone, e intendo che hanno
iniziato la fasce discendente del carbone indigeno, e quindo ora
devono importarne sempre di piu' (pare dall'Australia), allora
non possono piu' resistere a lungo con la loro azione di dumping.
E quindi ho cercato "PV prices rise". Ed ecco la notiza, come
sospettavo, nel dettaglio la componente ad alto costo energetico:
 
"Polysilicon has gone from a low of around US$6/kg last year to
  upwards of US$28/kg today, says Chase, which has in turn forced
  the price of modules up by around 25%. PV InfoLink data supplied
  to PV Tech Power puts the puts the price at a slightly tighter
  range, showing polysilicon soaring from a low of US$8.7/kg in 2020
  to US$22.2/kg this year. Worldwide demand for polysilicon in 2020
  was 140GW, while supply only reached 133GW by the end of the year,
  according to Corrine Lin, chief analyst at PVInfoLink. Lin argues
  that planned capacity expansions by polysilicon manufacturers were
  not brought online soon enough to meet demand."
 
Notare che ci sono anche tesi diverse. Vedremo. Ma a quanto pare
ci sono incrementi anche nei materiali per formare i moduli
(le celle fotovoltaiche da sole servono a poco):
 
"Other material factors include the cost of silver and glass.
  In November last year, module manufacturers started to lobby
  the Chinese government to intervene as the price of solar-grade
  glass went “out of control” after more than doubling in four months.
  Chase predicts that a recovery of the glass supply, which had brought
  the cost of modules down US$0.02/w to US$0.18/w earlier this year,
  will pose no further issues moving forward. Similarly, rising silver
  prices should not trouble the industry as modules continue to
  incorporate less of the precious metal and alternatives such as
  copper-nickel alloys are explored."
 
Se potete mettere le mani sugli ultimi scampoli di moduli, fattelo ora.
 
Ma c'e' chi e' ottimista:
 
"The analyst now expects prices to be flat at around US$26.5/kg moving
  into the new year. In 2022, it expects the price of polysilicon to
  drop significantly to US$13.4/kg, down 40%. In turn, modules are
  expected to plateau at around US$0.246/w in Q4 2021, not coming down
  to lower levels until at least Q1 or Q2 2022. Nonetheless, both Chase
  and Lin were certain that prices would come down, it is just a matter
  of precisely when."
 
Ma i trasporti non sono piu' quelli di una volta:
 
"It currently costs around US$17,000 to move a 40-foot container from
  Asia to Europe, says George Griffiths, global pricing specialist at
  S&P Global Platts. A year ago, it cost US$1,650. Asia to the west
  coast of North America is up from just below US$3,000 a year ago to
  US$6,500 today, Griffiths notes. This, in turn, puts upwards pressure
  on module prices as the cost of transportation is now several times
  what manufacturers are used to."
 
"With carriers now able to charge up to US$17,000, why would they ever
  let them drop again to US$800? asks Griffiths. “The days of three
  figure freights from Asia to Europe are long behind us,” he says,
  adding that while crates could come down to under US$10,000 from
  Asia to Europe, they will never return to the lows of 18 months ago."
 
Per ora, l'aumento delle taglia ha ridotto il danno:
 
"he EPCs agreed that increased module cell sizes have helped to
  offset some of their costs."
 
Ma non puo' continuare all'infinito e poi una domanda di fotvoltaico
pompata sempre ai politici non puo' che aumentare la pressione sui
prezzi. Ora i cinesi cominciano a fare cassa.


 
Per ora pare che sul mercato europeo gli incrementi per i moduli standard
siano intorno al 13% dall'inizio dell'anno:
https://www.pvxchange.com/Price-Index
 
 
Ma sono aumentate tutte le materie prime. Immagina l'effetto che questi
aumenti stanno avendo sui cantieri per la costruzione delle nuove centrali
nucleari, dove gią in condizioni normali i costi tendono a raddoppiare
rispetto ai programmi...

 rispetto ai programmi...
 
E' certamente probabile che nei cantieri nucleari in essere avremo
un aumento dei costi (anche per la crescita dei salari come conseguenza
del "caro vita"), ma sospetto che l'impatto sara' piu' devastante
nel settore fotovoltaico, salvo i governi non tornino di nuovo a
scialaquare quantita' industriali di soldi dei contribuenti.