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values | pred_subcategory
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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
O8sNnC9lhE
|
will-mikheil-kavelashvili-be-electe
|
Will Mikheil Kavelashvili be elected as President of Georgia
| null | 1,733,810,432,650
| 1,734,232,948,959
| 1,734,232,948,959
|
YES
| 0.959286
| 4,643
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
OwSPcspntKHKdalqx0wL
|
will-the-german-ampel-coalition-bre
|
Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term?
| null | 1,712,873,158,258
| 1,731,047,430,870
| 1,731,047,430,870
|
YES
| 0.989275
| 10,919.33138
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
iEIWmBeurHpdwEguYkAH
|
will-elon-musk-run-for-a-political
|
Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024?
| null | 1,703,875,896,518
| 1,733,416,484,485
| 1,733,416,484,485
|
NO
| 0.017295
| 5,517.109721
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
dlyoxo896f
|
will-harris-win-a-state-in-the-2024
|
Will Harris win a state in the 2024 election that Biden lost in 2020?
| null | 1,721,649,404,837
| 1,731,594,099,838
| 1,731,594,099,838
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,130.732218
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8ylZuRghEg
|
will-iran-hit-israel-within-7-days
|
Will Iran hit Israel within 7 days of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,730,143,556,330
| 1,730,679,870,117
| 1,730,679,870,117
|
NO
| 0.01142
| 1,533.339487
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
pElt68lcZu
|
will-pennsylvania-da-stop-elon-musk
|
Will Pennsylvania DA stop Elon Musk PAC from $1M daily voter giveaways before Election Day?
| null | 1,730,128,207,241
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,961,831,835
|
NO
| 0.058504
| 3,763.222565
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5azc3vhrjljwPwxQLtg2
|
will-a-llm-beat-human-experts-on-gp
|
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?
| null | 1,700,594,124,333
| 1,734,723,530,620
| 1,734,723,530,620
|
YES
| 0.926415
| 41,863.851275
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
HBU2tCo53ImhNBQldfZN
|
nfl-week-3-sep-22-will-the-clevelan
|
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Cleveland Browns beat the New York Giants?
| null | 1,715,833,606,460
| 1,727,068,268,798
| 1,727,068,268,798
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,168.247731
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
Oy6ys8ZqZn
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Acgp2PE8S0
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 11 than it closed on Dec 10?
| null | 1,733,856,362,607
| 1,733,950,985,143
| 1,733,950,985,143
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,012.84458
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
m03zr1nxok
|
will-kamala-harriss-brat-summer-car
|
Will Kamala Harris’s "Brat Summer" carry through till November?
| null | 1,722,345,570,217
| 1,730,851,140,000
| 1,731,824,574,718
|
NO
| 0.204109
| 1,116.354436
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8ZO545W9vF98wQYYviN6
|
will-dan-osborn-independent-be-with
|
Will Dan Osborn (Independent) be within 10 points of Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent) in the Nebraska Senate election?
| null | 1,713,069,610,043
| 1,730,934,723,643
| 1,730,934,729,244
|
YES
| 0.986017
| 8,340.543162
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tPTVg4UozPQSvj5iItDc
|
will-bitcoin-hit-80000-before-40000
|
Will Bitcoin hit $80,000 before $40,000?
| null | 1,709,217,073,459
| 1,731,246,097,325
| 1,731,246,097,325
|
YES
| 0.99
| 47,846.751319
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
sFLi7CTIN4zrZaH8nPB2
|
will-doug-burgum-win-the-2024-unite
|
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 United States presidential election?
| null | 1,686,151,917,849
| 1,731,149,586,066
| 1,731,149,586,066
|
NO
| 0.007653
| 2,005
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
fconw8iu68
|
daily-coinflip-ik7e8vxmds
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,727,244,755,796
| 1,727,402,400,000
| 1,727,403,519,368
|
NO
| 0.51
| 59,165.718906
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
3LshbzTunxtF3qcdalCD
|
will-godzilla-x-kong-have-a-higher
|
Will GODZILLA X KONG have a higher Rotten Tomatoes audience score than the next Palme d'Or winner at Cannes?
| null | 1,710,618,404,996
| 1,730,682,616,242
| 1,730,682,616,242
|
YES
| 0.925301
| 2,827.964364
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
x607d0fuir
|
will-anthropic-release-an-api-relat
|
Will Anthropic release an API related to agent use on October 22, 2024?
| null | 1,729,348,927,483
| 1,729,611,423,184
| 1,729,611,423,184
|
YES
| 0.91
| 7,051.183637
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
9mxcrrv1ax
|
will-i-cynthia-get-a-full-time-job
|
Will I (Cynthia) get a full time job by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,724,467,861,915
| 1,729,717,935,540
| 1,729,717,935,540
|
YES
| 0.95
| 2,069.286442
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
aulPr98FjLbWqRB7VKrz
|
will-soon-to-be-former-dutch-pm-mar
|
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO?
| null | 1,698,872,283,428
| 1,727,790,729,805
| 1,727,790,729,805
|
YES
| 0.99
| 26,814.466704
|
Politics
|
International Relations
|
1yijb82cab
|
will-the-certified-electoral-votes
|
Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election?
| null | 1,724,614,506,145
| 1,735,665,821,519
| 1,735,665,821,519
|
NO
| 0.010557
| 12,926.504298
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tghj848kzk
|
will-new-hezbollah-leader-hashim-sa
|
Will presumptive Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine survive 2024?
| null | 1,727,648,917,178
| 1,729,672,513,147
| 1,729,672,513,147
|
NO
| 0.01
| 69,769.074263
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
QaUtFAI23DerCCshdbyu
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-33a44c108f7d
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 200k views?
| null | 1,707,014,153,630
| 1,727,464,991,086
| 1,727,464,991,086
|
YES
| 1
| 2,077.203789
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
h9cCGh6LUGimrBkTFSN0
|
will-guilherme-boulos-be-elected-ma
|
Will Guilherme Boulos be elected mayor of São Paulo in 2024?
| null | 1,684,624,551,258
| 1,731,190,877,497
| 1,731,190,877,497
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,055.870197
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
6EKcapcDXgaC5EzSItXE
|
will-caroline-ellison-be-sentenced
|
Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time?
| null | 1,696,949,846,661
| 1,727,247,644,809
| 1,727,247,644,809
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,345.918035
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
jQZYnRSVHRqYdjQDnRFb
|
will-the-democrats-control-the-penn
|
Will the Democrats control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives after the 2024 election?
| null | 1,704,222,729,307
| 1,731,604,904,936
| 1,731,604,904,936
|
YES
| 0.99
| 5,436.741603
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2owceagehe
|
does-manifold-think-ai-is-rightwing
|
Does Manifold think AI is right-wing technology?
| null | 1,728,737,716,627
| 1,731,387,540,000
| 1,731,497,454,110
|
NO
| 0.02215
| 1,185.533423
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ulsg6lg0Qu
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-sPI0t8dO86
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Nov 14 than it closed on Nov 13?
| null | 1,731,531,450,739
| 1,731,618,143,911
| 1,731,618,143,911
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,120.240461
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
319f5s7ju0
|
will-israeli-troops-enter-the-count-2qvqtleb4q
|
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September?
| null | 1,725,077,035,891
| 1,727,742,652,209
| 1,727,742,652,209
|
YES
| 0.99
| 33,371.715803
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
xknBVAxqxwFTdMiVBe1d
|
will-barack-obama-make-8-or-more-tw-5d17976af9ba
|
Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in Oct 2024?
| null | 1,707,273,122,157
| 1,728,619,707,205
| 1,728,619,707,205
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,953.857936
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
c6KOAHoJV4drd2klLt7p
|
will-a-third-party-candidate-qualif
|
Will a third party candidate qualify for at least one U.S. presidential debate in 2024?
| null | 1,704,147,314,710
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,732,666,660,672
|
NO
| 0.02021
| 12,860.003413
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1ufn364r13
|
will-pat-gelsinger-be-removed-or-an
|
Will Pat Gelsinger be removed or announce he is stepping down as Intel CEO by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,723,320,370,461
| 1,733,153,307,200
| 1,733,153,307,200
|
YES
| 0.9895
| 8,449.571671
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
gw7cf6av4k
|
will-me-and-peterbennett-handbrain
|
Will me and @PeterBennett (hand-brain) defeat @NicholasCharette at chess?
| null | 1,728,093,781,712
| 1,728,110,927,695
| 1,728,110,927,695
|
NO
| 0.11
| 1,092.580459
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
hOZOaLtMTthlPHWY4JR1
|
will-russian-forces-take-vuhledar-i
|
Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024?
| null | 1,708,415,238,742
| 1,728,022,024,207
| 1,728,022,024,207
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,298.943271
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
YnjR2huDdNVOoYUAEiLb
|
will-bottas-get-more-points-then-zh
|
Will Bottas get more Points then Zhou in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
| null | 1,713,793,344,915
| 1,733,669,822,788
| 1,733,669,824,585
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,038.377427
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
Xu6Qi1wfBQ4Zl3XpMboN
|
will-trump-run-as-a-third-party-can
|
Will trump run as a third party candidate in 2024?
| null | 1,668,124,435,690
| 1,730,929,674,518
| 1,730,929,674,518
|
NO
| 0.015379
| 15,213.646863
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
d8gNKnlOCiiLaFECAjhX
|
will-wizards-of-the-coast-release-a-cb4917d83d30
|
Will Wizards of the Coast release any white-bordered cards before 2025?
| null | 1,699,041,779,886
| 1,726,721,335,641
| 1,726,721,335,641
|
YES
| 0.99
| 6,583.478471
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
FsMUw6WBeMzWlvZ6V4an
|
will-california-vote-the-same-party
|
Will California vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
| null | 1,686,435,548,725
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,731,555,214,734
|
YES
| 0.989612
| 2,220.277294
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
pFweJ36XbX7GpZgmVipl
|
will-trump-win-at-least-ten-states
|
Will Trump win at least ten states?
| null | 1,682,814,528,112
| 1,731,201,168,263
| 1,731,201,168,263
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,062.688294
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
OuA9NwUOtl5bm1qqiJug
|
will-vivek-ramaswamy-run-for-presid
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy run for president in the 2024 election as a Libertarian or Independent?
| null | 1,702,072,276,923
| 1,719,817,140,000
| 1,730,753,127,517
|
NO
| 0.010788
| 5,543.398948
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
YC2uZVhcQvtwUA1vl6ph
|
will-sol-solana-reaches-more-than-2
|
Will $SOL (Solana) reaches more than $250 USD anytime within 2024?
| null | 1,704,999,918,427
| 1,733,848,659,720
| 1,733,848,659,720
|
YES
| 0.97951
| 23,132.694725
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
b95gz1tkxv
|
will-joe-biden-and-donald-trump-pla
|
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election?
| null | 1,719,544,223,631
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,904,322,879
|
NO
| 0.022995
| 10,799.049461
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
RLt8Q8zPq2NMouT17cIn
|
will-trump-say-all-50-states-before
|
Will Trump say all 50 states before the election?
| null | 1,716,751,026,573
| 1,731,088,740,000
| 1,731,164,975,745
|
NO
| 0.026163
| 12,258.723814
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
VtGPolSazS6M5Mwuck7w
|
will-league-of-legends-team-t1-who
|
Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2023) win Worlds in 2024?
| null | 1,700,786,516,158
| 1,730,653,616,820
| 1,730,653,616,820
|
YES
| 0.99824
| 23,824.296889
|
Gaming
|
Esports
|
b0kdgz3ar6
|
will-opus-35-be-released-this-week
|
Will Opus 3.5 be released this week?
| null | 1,729,385,652,946
| 1,730,098,740,000
| 1,730,738,817,283
|
NO
| 0.010951
| 10,503.30723
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
w5rle7kDonttJRRbQ4m7
|
nfl-week-3-sep-22-will-the-atlanta
|
NFL Week 3 (Sep 22): Will the Atlanta Falcons beat the Kansas City Chiefs?
| null | 1,715,833,646,551
| 1,727,068,293,192
| 1,727,068,293,192
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,249.29051
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
XIE4oVYv8Yn5y4X63g0p
|
will-any-player-on-the-atp-tour-pas
|
Will any player on the ATP Tour pass 1000 aces in the 2024 season?
| null | 1,704,430,343,983
| 1,735,562,368,560
| 1,735,562,368,560
|
NO
| 0.01478
| 9,054.323542
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT
|
will-there-be-any-upsets-in-the-202
|
Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?
| null | 1,716,162,019,551
| 1,730,935,085,471
| 1,730,935,085,471
|
NO
| 0.04375
| 13,873.114119
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nptSynLgnS
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-ZdZLZnngdy
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1133 and 1134?
| null | 1,733,185,461,272
| 1,733,676,984,443
| 1,733,676,991,302
|
YES
| 0.798673
| 1,299.246214
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
ox6eoa7ors
|
will-marvels-agatha-all-along-be-go
|
Is Marvel’s Agatha All Along going to be good? 🧙♀️🪄📺
| null | 1,725,333,870,540
| 1,730,444,340,000
| 1,730,470,031,023
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,548.396526
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
Fy6byt24aTiIpi3kWHDz
|
will-tesla-officially-reveal-the-te
|
Will Tesla officially reveal the Tesla "Model 2" in 2024?
| null | 1,692,790,449,022
| 1,735,674,914,861
| 1,735,674,914,861
|
NO
| 0.104331
| 8,485.686841
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
8iduje5knz
|
will-minimarkets-cost-at-least-m250
|
Will Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ250 and adding answers to MC-Mini-Markets cost at least Ṁ25 before October 1st?
| null | 1,724,940,720,026
| 1,727,766,000,000
| 1,727,766,847,214
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,931.700614
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
d4awdl7vxr
|
will-the-bank-of-england-cut-rates
|
Will the Bank of England cut rates by more than 25bps in November?
| null | 1,727,953,504,098
| 1,730,980,893,751
| 1,730,980,893,751
|
NO
| 0.021783
| 7,238.319736
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
DPJX028iCWZA58DfRjsv
|
nfl-week-10-nov-10-2024-will-the-ka
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the Denver Broncos (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,209,562
| 1,731,291,756,692
| 1,731,291,756,692
|
YES
| 0.990976
| 2,620.041459
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
ix3pgpKtv6596DIhXbwg
|
will-nintendo-legally-go-after-palw
|
Will Nintendo legally go after Palworld in some way before EOY 2024?
| null | 1,705,886,780,030
| 1,726,704,503,695
| 1,726,704,503,695
|
YES
| 0.97
| 72,640.563595
|
Technology
|
Gaming
|
2AC5eSVotznfENPtEVb3
|
will-a-trump-supporter-attempt-to-p
|
Will a Trump supporter attempt to physically assault Mike Pence before the 2024 election?
| null | 1,691,343,577,804
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,909,478,720
|
NO
| 0.091098
| 3,683.975957
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tytavkzj1q
|
does-our-team-win-trivia
|
Does our team win trivia?
| null | 1,727,134,891,847
| 1,727,144,747,304
| 1,727,144,747,304
|
NO
| 0.02
| 36,423.726133
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
kwbcdx330c
|
will-shohei-ohtani-hit-more-than-5--cash
|
Will Shohei Ohtani hit more than 5 home runs in the 2024 postseason?
| null | 1,729,696,846,371
| 1,730,379,705,621
| 1,730,396,788,886
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,418.724436
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
jd13wqh2cw
|
destiny-releases-his-j6manifesto-be
|
Destiny releases his J6-manifesto before November
| null | 1,728,413,267,528
| 1,730,437,200,000
| 1,730,448,335,741
|
NO
| 0.010172
| 10,612.824738
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Wuae37tRNQFtRFzO9FoM
|
will-trump-do-jail-time-in-2024
|
Will Trump do jail time in 2024?
| null | 1,696,900,359,977
| 1,731,157,140,000
| 1,731,182,399,202
|
NO
| 0.042149
| 7,364.772467
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
RVoIehlN008OrKYoH0bS
|
will-the-2024-time-person-of-the-ye
|
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way?
| null | 1,710,455,286,843
| 1,734,027,667,920
| 1,734,027,667,920
|
NO
| 0.01
| 15,857.697675
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
Qh3HYoKMfqfl9A0PcW5v
|
will-the-cubs-win-84-or-more-games
|
Will the Cubs win 84 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season?
| null | 1,705,733,129,532
| 1,727,683,086,183
| 1,727,683,086,183
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,400.515068
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
lX9zbjEQwVlhLPrp54c7
|
will-allan-lichtmans-the-keys-to-th
|
Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?
| null | 1,678,752,835,058
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,914,121,304
|
NO
| 0.311481
| 5,904.311577
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
EQ8VA6PqaMAd4CbCCv9O
|
will-i-train-or-play-soccer-with-my
|
Will I train or play soccer with my brother in law at his club in 2024
| null | 1,706,947,164,975
| 1,729,355,743,153
| 1,729,355,743,153
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,899.742863
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
AAACQ9udIQ
|
was-there-russian-meddling-in-the-2
|
Was there Russian meddling in the 2024 Romanian presidential election?
| null | 1,733,411,345,933
| 1,733,511,575,163
| 1,733,511,575,163
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,949.874371
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
vq7xnmbod1
|
will-donald-trump-flip-miamidade-co
|
Will Donald Trump flip Miami-Dade county in 2024?
| null | 1,728,249,304,060
| 1,730,859,832,783
| 1,730,859,832,783
|
YES
| 0.90749
| 13,469.158283
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
makevn4wF2BkxHx8V9ai
|
will-violent-jay-and-shaggy-2-dope
|
Will Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope win the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,689,734,486,798
| 1,733,032,740,000
| 1,733,044,149,517
|
NO
| 0.01
| 26,910.649547
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5nqgo5GLYQByKqcMgjdA
|
will-we-add-periodicfilling-limit-o
|
Will we add periodic-filling limit orders in 2024?
| null | 1,718,296,005,607
| 1,730,406,161,841
| 1,735,684,967,401
|
NO
| 0.43663
| 9,420.204598
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
N5Nz0ZqggA
|
will-arcane-season-2-get-a-100-on-r
|
Will Arcane Season 2 get a 100% on RottenTomatoes?
| null | 1,730,695,135,784
| 1,732,607,940,000
| 1,733,873,397,285
|
YES
| 0.99
| 6,628.308469
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
zjUVDY1pyvKHUbEf6XxW
|
will-the-braves-win-the-2024-world
|
Will the Braves win the 2024 World Series?
| null | 1,698,929,848,728
| 1,729,018,816,727
| 1,729,018,816,727
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,706.224951
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
8AUNz8lzs6
|
was-the-jake-paul-vs-mike-tyson-fig
|
Was the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?
| null | 1,731,745,615,450
| 1,732,487,256,748
| 1,732,487,256,748
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,820.831809
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
QN3KDbdq32tYJapOgnnA
|
will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-d1be5531b14f
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election happen as scheduled on 5 November?
| null | 1,704,577,672,146
| 1,730,876,340,000
| 1,730,913,269,520
|
YES
| 0.98
| 3,092.159826
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
k6wSpdOBdZ61ResH0hxB
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-9c5f3dfa84a4
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 500k views?
| null | 1,707,191,227,741
| 1,729,275,100,059
| 1,729,275,100,059
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,841.542413
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
wL5jJ8sevkO72552yieL
|
nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-phi
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Philadelphia Eagles (home) beat the Carolina Panthers (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,517,302
| 1,733,853,600,000
| 1,735,276,237,003
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,070.474036
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
vQTDcxudJs2C3RuFCSZV
|
will-a-third-party-candidate-spoil
|
Will a third party candidate “spoil” the 2024 US Presidential election?
| null | 1,690,082,375,133
| 1,730,782,740,000
| 1,730,930,202,918
|
NO
| 0.171522
| 1,730.453365
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lx7pmfx7iu
|
will-the-price-movement-of-djt-stoc
|
Will the price movement of DJT stock accurately predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
| null | 1,726,664,918,221
| 1,730,902,683,357
| 1,730,902,683,357
|
YES
| 0.757341
| 1,150
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lTtSs2ddfKgwRRdoxNJI
|
will-selzer-outpredict-fivethirtyei
|
Will Selzer out-predict FiveThirtyEight in the 2024 Iowa presidential election?
| null | 1,672,353,422,806
| 1,730,947,822,079
| 1,730,947,822,079
|
NO
| 0.022196
| 4,729.320447
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
oavv6awe2m
|
was-acx-book-review-nine-lives-writ
|
Was ACX book review "nine lives" written by Scott Alexander?
| null | 1,726,238,691,741
| 1,728,641,717,128
| 1,728,641,717,128
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,258.16073
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
2gelOcB6s2drOX4HV2Mf
|
will-jason-weens-youtube-channel-re-b0d1bb6a9b07
|
Will Jason Ween's Youtube channel reach 650k subscribers in 2024?
| null | 1,712,766,823,869
| 1,729,613,443,040
| 1,729,613,443,040
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,138.504699
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Id0tzLzl8q
|
will-the-ny-giants-stomp-the-dallas
|
Will the NY Giants stomp the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈|🦃 (4:30pm)
| null | 1,732,589,149,368
| 1,732,846,602,100
| 1,732,846,602,100
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,206.217011
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
IA69Hy6uKTluG4Nemg6r
|
lionel-messi-will-score-a-hattrick
|
Lionel Messi will score a hat-trick in a match for Inter Miami by 2025
| null | 1,692,076,215,268
| 1,729,532,385,139
| 1,729,532,385,139
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,230.505545
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
YplVU4tKTFOksdAyzs6e
|
will-a-democrat-win-alaska-in-the-2
|
Will a Democrat win Alaska in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,275,896,762
| 1,731,036,004,236
| 1,731,036,004,236
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,973.868931
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ic21c1vl16
|
will-travis-kelce-endorse-trump-bef
|
Will Travis Kelce endorse Trump before the election?
| null | 1,726,025,493,634
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,955,679,781
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,717.484155
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8GIQED9HVaDcEW4K40uh
|
will-barack-obama-declare-the-2024
|
Will Barack Obama declare the 2024 election as the most important of our lifetimes?
| null | 1,699,252,743,276
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,731,767,693,783
|
NO
| 0.266817
| 3,326.915948
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1z71romwcj
|
will-jeanmarie-le-pen-die-in-octobe
|
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen die in October 2024?
| null | 1,725,883,071,198
| 1,730,415,540,000
| 1,730,452,018,632
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,144.213223
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
sNSrm1QtmTvxiJipjNKe
|
will-spacex-successfully-catch-a-bo-5ddb59c643b5
|
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first ten Starship flights?
| null | 1,712,469,076,213
| 1,728,880,811,751
| 1,728,880,811,751
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,975.352512
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
yfkHEOHjKozJ0ohgj3Oj
|
will-jimmy-carter-outlive-any-curre
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive any current or former POTUS?
| null | 1,698,808,496,608
| 1,735,515,447,229
| 1,735,515,447,229
|
NO
| 0.009036
| 25,240.940108
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
y6iFIhq9M1loky1T2OsZ
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-8f0026346e7b
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 20M views?
| null | 1,706,582,234,461
| 1,727,530,258,389
| 1,727,530,258,389
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,510.027778
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
TtLevYrKi2X17JndeDf9
|
will-i-get-a-date-on-manifold-datin
|
Will I get a date on Manifold Dating?
| null | 1,698,209,419,968
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,686,116,463
|
NO
| 0.035659
| 1,805.0176
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
mkgw0wz4uf
|
will-there-be-major-economic-news-t
|
Will there be major economic news that affects the 2024 US election?
| null | 1,722,700,646,533
| 1,730,875,386,974
| 1,730,875,386,974
|
NO
| 0.118294
| 4,079.830319
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
WK2NWYZpqH6iA6wPx6Ui
|
will-barack-obama-make-12-or-more-t-8142569a654d
|
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Nov 2024?
| null | 1,708,381,181,252
| 1,733,029,199,950
| 1,735,076,013,777
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,870.960828
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2j2hjm4b2m
|
polymarketlinked-trump-caught-with
|
[Polymarket-linked] Trump caught with Loomer again in September?
| null | 1,726,562,815,989
| 1,727,765,940,000
| 1,727,778,863,872
|
NO
| 0.02
| 1,921.342723
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
umpr4usbhy
|
will-anyone-say-bitcoin-crypto-bloc
|
Will anyone say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", "Blockchain", "World Liberty Financial" or similar during the Vance vs Walz debate?
| null | 1,727,815,245,478
| 1,727,837,741,479
| 1,728,349,735,709
|
NO
| 0.04
| 9,222.31052
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nZNuODQCxN0LfvO2db1R
|
will-there-be-a-way-for-two-users-t
|
Will there be a way for two users to bet against each other without paying Manifold? [6 months]
| null | 1,715,864,323,804
| 1,731,801,540,000
| 1,731,837,246,403
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,045.75849
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
hfmpbugzqo
|
will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-on-ch9blokoaq
|
Will Donald Trump still be alive on October 1st, 2024?
| null | 1,725,274,306,972
| 1,727,762,340,000
| 1,727,788,073,907
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,492.225975
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yCIjO2bL6XURozSRW7SI
|
will-samesex-marriage-become-legal-0ace612bd91e
|
Will same-sex marriage become legal in Japan in 2024?
| null | 1,710,698,011,289
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,683,020,719
|
NO
| 0.033338
| 4,695.530479
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
wo1dv7xp55
|
will-the-dutch-government-successfu
|
Will the Dutch government successfully implement the 'noodwet' for the 'asylum crisis'?
| null | 1,728,459,848,907
| 1,730,120,506,638
| 1,730,120,602,756
|
NO
| 0.1
| 2,262.239575
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
XVWeziWumsCmym0B21Jh
|
will-there-be-significant-blm-riots
|
Will there be significant BLM riots preceding the 2024 US presidential election?
| null | 1,672,014,885,582
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,891,220,044
|
NO
| 0.0385
| 4,400.582005
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
05el1ng5r1
|
biden-facilitates-ceasefire-in-ukra
|
Biden facilitates ceasefire in Ukraine before Election Day
| null | 1,722,544,980,953
| 1,730,713,338,987
| 1,730,713,338,987
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,351.424905
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
92trxy2k11
|
will-harris-become-president-before
|
Will Harris become president before the end of Biden's term AND win the 2024 election for president?
| null | 1,721,595,661,356
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,930,481,808
|
NO
| 0.028035
| 9,000.521732
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ezIHRBEJyTwo3kwjnugc
|
will-manifold-successfully-predict-ca0b18fb8ac6
|
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
| null | 1,702,047,549,467
| 1,733,612,340,000
| 1,734,076,045,333
|
YES
| 0.78758
| 4,379.823745
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
aUeXZaAOExK7k6bkfTTZ
|
will-pod-save-america-host-jon-love
|
Will Pod Save America Host Jon Lovett make it to the final five in Survivor Season 47?
| null | 1,716,435,724,786
| 1,726,770,108,610
| 1,726,770,108,610
|
NO
| 0.04
| 6,143.29921
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
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