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TVuPwa6aKF0dARLQO10u
|
will-alyssa-farah-run-for-any-offic
|
Will Alyssa Farah run for any office in 2024?
| null | 1,681,616,126,069
| 1,733,993,819,145
| 1,733,993,819,145
|
NO
| 0.010097
| 13,850.483987
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
xtgv88jhfc
|
daily-coinflip-la9hr84ero
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,729,569,968,481
| 1,729,742,340,000
| 1,729,742,612,752
|
YES
| 0.49
| 4,698.017455
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ge2U9EQO6QOVgUyYPMmv
|
will-the-los-angees-angels-make-the
|
Will the Los Angeles Angels make the 2024 postseason?
| null | 1,713,743,130,313
| 1,727,334,149,127
| 1,727,334,149,127
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,515.961276
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
dpoKZWNjhsctQ8GWMxuw
|
will-the-palestinian-authority-take
|
Will the Palestinian Authority take over Gaza deposing Hamas by the end of September 2024 ?
| null | 1,697,033,917,157
| 1,727,668,740,000
| 1,727,887,683,499
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,307.806772
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
1mRMNkXL9Vrbns2lXBTz
|
will-the-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-4538fa41c159
|
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 64% or larger?
| null | 1,705,763,537,896
| 1,735,233,350,944
| 1,735,233,350,944
|
NO
| 0.094816
| 4,690.027519
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
mfu5y57wdq
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-jnhh7rxjpb
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1130 and 1131?
| null | 1,728,413,362,775
| 1,728,914,294,359
| 1,728,914,309,481
|
YES
| 0.92
| 3,051
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
V9mUtMRTpzxhTHGDCE3J
|
will-egan-bernal-win-a-professional
|
Will Egan Bernal win a professional race he competes against Jonas Vingegaard, in the 2024 UCI season?
| null | 1,706,688,047,662
| 1,729,621,724,185
| 1,729,621,724,185
|
NO
| 0.02
| 1,902.919386
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
haoUKaAH1h7t6BKq19Ee
|
will-bitcoin-hit-100k-before-jan-1s
|
Will Bitcoin hit 100k before Jan 1st 2025?
| null | 1,697,151,258,909
| 1,733,418,899,659
| 1,733,418,899,659
|
YES
| 0.997468
| 27,692.017236
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
TDBoeeOV0XkFi7fil08l
|
will-trump-lose-but-not-concede-the
|
Will Trump lose but not concede the next presidential election, and hold a rally in Washington DC on January 6 2025?
| null | 1,701,191,340,386
| 1,730,962,558,920
| 1,730,962,558,920
|
NO
| 0.01
| 20,499.810568
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yjlbpfj6t3
|
will-anyone-be-able-to-get-openais
|
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
| null | 1,726,176,926,163
| 1,734,331,249,243
| 1,734,331,254,770
|
YES
| 0.959635
| 22,680.846671
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
9fyaavlivp
|
will-bidens-approval-rating-be-40-o-b82p33zhqf
|
Will Biden's approval rating be 40% or higher at the end of September 2024?
| null | 1,725,140,827,761
| 1,727,732,760,000
| 1,727,735,863,408
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,054.544293
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0wSyyKuZ0atHDj5N4A1D
|
will-moana-2-be-at-least-as-highly
|
Will Moana 2 be at least as highly rated on RottenTomatoes as Moana?
| null | 1,707,402,005,700
| 1,733,385,540,000
| 1,733,873,385,172
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,301.611837
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
silus6r4p9
|
will-400-of-manifold-users-agree-th
|
Will >= 40.0% of Manifold users agree that weak AGI has been achieved in October 2024?
| null | 1,727,784,422,622
| 1,729,655,940,000
| 1,730,460,438,386
|
NO
| 0.063264
| 7,376.467231
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
xdwIrS1AIPJ5YFOMwGAo
|
will-manifold-demote-any-prize-mark
|
Will manifold demote any Prize Market to regular market ? (2024)
| null | 1,716,959,760,896
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,735,655,761,761
|
NO
| 0.04981
| 8,475.669081
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
tUI0A6QSpO
|
will-mark-farrell-win-the-2024-san--cash
|
Will Mark Farrell win the 2024 San Francisco Mayor's race?
| null | 1,729,873,528,213
| 1,731,050,883,333
| 1,731,050,883,333
|
NO
| 0.010029
| 1,343.12523
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qXunDU7JeiEULwfgaqMf
|
will-i-get-vigorous-exercise-at-lea
|
Will I get vigorous exercise at least 5 days a week for 40 weeks in 2024?
| null | 1,704,148,913,720
| 1,730,861,382,180
| 1,730,861,382,180
|
NO
| 0.33
| 4,402.635553
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
5p9YV3NzSvwn0KrBYZ2W
|
will-notre-dame-cathedral-in-paris
|
Will Notre Dame cathedral in Paris reopen to the public on Dec 8th, 2024?
| null | 1,703,995,586,691
| 1,733,726,563,267
| 1,733,726,563,267
|
YES
| 0.988516
| 6,340.450033
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
K1ZdeejNvuvAhx9V5W9W
|
will-any-company-produce-a-publicly
|
Will any company produce a publicly available AGI model before December 31st 2024?
| null | 1,708,648,751,870
| 1,725,147,300,000
| 1,733,611,155,406
|
NO
| 0.025909
| 2,940.909143
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
qt3gdfmssh
|
will-california-require-cars-to-war
|
Will California require cars to warn drivers for excessive speeding? (SB 961 2024)
| null | 1,726,607,450,578
| 1,727,644,942,022
| 1,727,644,942,022
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,868.310064
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
UqEyt5SsEg
|
daily-coinflip-gZddIyZc6n
|
Daily coinflip 🎉
| null | 1,733,474,086,368
| 1,733,806,740,000
| 1,733,815,371,157
|
YES
| 0.5
| 9,595.219432
|
ENTERTAINMENT
|
GAMING
|
onaz0aqbqg
|
will-democrats-flip-any-governorshi
|
Will Democrats flip any governorships?
| null | 1,727,192,472,647
| 1,730,998,544,363
| 1,730,998,544,363
|
NO
| 0.062672
| 2,136.740548
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
h69yncSzhs
|
will-the-jet-propulsion-laboratory
|
Will the Jet Propulsion Laboratory have a layoff large enough to trigger the WARN Act during the week 11/10/24-11/16/24?
| null | 1,731,299,108,627
| 1,731,558,791,872
| 1,731,558,791,872
|
YES
| 0.987011
| 3,146.82188
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
mpzDZijQxJFtlgkaQfZG
|
will-marjorie-taylor-greene-run-for
|
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene run for President in 2024?
| null | 1,665,544,456,154
| 1,729,976,743,113
| 1,729,976,743,113
|
NO
| 0.02
| 2,233.453011
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1ofxi6ppvn
|
will-rfk-jr-finish-second-in-any-st
|
Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
| null | 1,718,387,154,021
| 1,730,912,050,774
| 1,730,912,050,774
|
NO
| 0.00121
| 88,831.588084
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
wpoxbx5zb
|
will-conservative-party-members-vot
|
Will Conservative party members vote in the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election?
| null | 1,720,604,517,379
| 1,729,582,261,795
| 1,729,582,261,795
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,969.534007
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
7HtUYqt5dFZGmGbYD18t
|
will-nintendo-legally-go-after-palw-98389633dcbe
|
Will Nintendo Legally go after Palworld before Taylor Swift gets engaged/married?
| null | 1,706,991,555,729
| 1,726,704,560,290
| 1,726,704,560,290
|
YES
| 0.9
| 3,169.68071
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
hewgGX3vUjCZR5WqcB2a
|
in-a-year-will-we-think-that-sam-al
|
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?
| null | 1,700,254,452,538
| 1,732,521,540,000
| 1,732,667,946,762
|
NO
| 0.142155
| 211,028.255653
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
DXZL1ZDLe0eqAGtJsEg9
|
will-there-be-a-new-largest-known-p
|
Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2026?
| null | 1,711,003,397,442
| 1,729,525,446,587
| 1,729,525,446,587
|
YES
| 0.99
| 18,644.640071
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
O5LNdZLuhl
|
will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c--cash
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,734,638,014,041
| 1,734,761,152,248
| 1,734,761,450,844
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,207.337953
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
2tQS4HN0vBA5035FNJ9W
|
will-selzer-outpredict-silver-in-th
|
Will Selzer out-predict Silver in the 2024 Iowa presidential election?
| null | 1,684,613,538,715
| 1,730,947,746,900
| 1,730,947,746,900
|
NO
| 0.01455
| 3,867.629483
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
XAej3RwDTXagXd9Y5TsT
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-a7458cd40409
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be born pre 1960
| null | 1,658,767,435,267
| 1,731,652,321,635
| 1,731,652,321,635
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,050.613833
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
EQJeMPI7uNGOLiL0KEKv
|
will-tesla-stock-have-a-new-all-tim
|
Will Tesla stock have a new all time high before 2040?
| null | 1,681,944,596,740
| 1,734,049,242,863
| 1,734,049,242,863
|
YES
| 0.963589
| 3,571.824662
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
wPLuVqqX5EQPFZToSWjM
|
will-verstappen-get-more-points-the
|
Will Verstappen get more Points then Perez in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
| null | 1,713,793,856,000
| 1,732,450,906,862
| 1,732,450,907,254
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,221.875384
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
TL5pYGbHUTncrwDL7KaS
|
will-ron-desantis-be-outed-as-gay-b
|
Will Ron Desantis be outed as gay by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,675,784,811,279
| 1,735,677,003,578
| 1,735,677,003,578
|
NO
| 0.011345
| 5,495.540762
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
IyU6X618SJDzOFzC4nzN
|
will-there-be-a-political-banner-on
|
Will there be a political banner on top of the React.dev website by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,711,438,458,965
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,687,083,800
|
NO
| 0.096105
| 2,258.241464
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
g87oBWpeuVBPfpihdEmE
|
will-a-japanese-development-studio
|
Will a Japanese development studio win Game of the Year at the 2024 game awards?
| null | 1,704,146,909,430
| 1,734,078,788,087
| 1,734,078,788,087
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,324.947638
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
AI9dLRg5At
|
will-sergio-perez-be-one-of-red-bul
|
Will Sergio Perez be one of Red Bull Racing’s two main drivers at the start of the 2025 Formula 1 season?
| null | 1,730,507,206,577
| 1,734,543,673,884
| 1,734,543,673,884
|
NO
| 0.01016
| 1,919.110606
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
NgSu50EQAg
|
polymarket-will-either-candidate-co
|
[Polymarket] Will either candidate concede in November?
| null | 1,730,552,025,519
| 1,731,052,740,000
| 1,731,076,532,765
|
YES
| 0.99
| 22,391.185605
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
fg6ruqku3z
|
will-donald-trump-receive-less-than
|
Will Donald Trump receive less than 40% of the military vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
| null | 1,726,597,502,649
| 1,731,089,717,001
| 1,731,089,717,001
|
NO
| 0.162276
| 1,945.659057
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8eM9t6wpy733Gwmr5aKI
|
if-kamala-harris-becomes-the-democr
|
If Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic nominee, will she win the 2024 election?
| null | 1,642,268,585,570
| 1,730,678,399,000
| 1,730,914,630,100
|
NO
| 0.506378
| 20,406.686659
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
dMj0MKmumcVGbTtpSD9X
|
elon-musk-and-a-current-or-former-u
|
Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025
| null | 1,717,119,185,803
| 1,731,088,884,125
| 1,731,088,884,125
|
YES
| 0.973058
| 5,665.603188
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
oqjpmccn22
|
will-there-be-an-orgy-that-i-hear-a
|
Will there be an orgy (that I hear about) at Love Symposium 2024?
| null | 1,728,442,014,000
| 1,732,175,940,000
| 1,732,176,669,586
|
NO
| 0.019518
| 7,421.934626
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
CdlHl7809EKXbt6wnsA1
|
will-there-be-a-no-labels-ticket-on
|
Will there be a “No Labels” ticket on the ballot in over 25 states in the 2024 US general presidential election?
| null | 1,693,609,343,246
| 1,731,241,808,927
| 1,731,241,808,927
|
NO
| 0.010064
| 7,128.548411
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
O56c3rSmxAc9WrHOL9Ye
|
will-secret-service-protection-be-w
|
Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November?
| null | 1,717,515,299,033
| 1,730,784,077,022
| 1,730,784,077,022
|
NO
| 0.010475
| 1,093.928522
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nf7Di70DAJgH7Xt7EZnm
|
will-red-bull-win-16-or-more-races
|
Will Red Bull win 16 or more races in the 2024 Formula 1 season?
| null | 1,708,319,647,173
| 1,729,525,502,393
| 1,729,525,502,393
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,426.430281
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
6StUuRN5SC
|
will-game-9-of-the-fide-world-champ-IAAcdtggNP
|
Will Game 12 of the FIDE World Champion Gukesh vs Ding, result in a draw?
| null | 1,733,732,085,555
| 1,733,748,926,944
| 1,733,748,926,944
|
NO
| 0.023006
| 6,423
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
hTrtj54jedrM73b4HfaQ
|
will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-a3db2c69e347
|
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Mario Kart 8 Deluxe' at any point before 2025?
| null | 1,684,688,017,315
| 1,735,661,584,924
| 1,735,661,584,924
|
NO
| 0.010001
| 6,918.475076
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
hESEUhlyU0
|
did-luigi-mangione-author-the-manif
|
Did Luigi Mangione author the manifesto 'The Allopathic Complex and Its Consequences' posted on Substack?
| null | 1,733,804,749,653
| 1,733,879,830,272
| 1,733,972,620,810
|
NO
| 0.074283
| 3,255
|
Books & Literature
|
Books & Literature
|
cWDUwgjCUATGTIRGOU2F
|
-will-salt-lake-city-get-a-national
|
🏒 Will Salt Lake City get a National Hockey League team before 2030?
| null | 1,710,641,008,731
| 1,728,626,213,184
| 1,728,626,213,184
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,528.899576
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
7vou8eir9o
|
will-manifold-stop-forcing-sweepsta
|
Will Manifold stop forcing Sweepstakes markets on the home page by default? (by the end of september)
| null | 1,727,159,941,699
| 1,727,277,352,133
| 1,727,277,352,133
|
YES
| 0.99
| 19,994.540723
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
YEVaoZcP05pqHx0FHuGi
|
will-openai-have-a-valuation-either
|
Will OpenAI have a valuation (either public or based on a private raise) above $100B by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,673,041,878,140
| 1,727,901,086,402
| 1,727,901,086,402
|
YES
| 0.98
| 25,749.97046
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
YYa1WtIvYYaspWRWfz2O
|
will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-3f2c61348f2f
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 50,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
| null | 1,710,913,624,491
| 1,731,622,632,542
| 1,731,622,632,542
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,999.011102
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ndNsdd9CpC
|
new-york-proposition-1-2024-passes
|
New York Proposition 1 (2024) Passes
| null | 1,730,429,664,542
| 1,730,864,804,985
| 1,730,864,804,985
|
YES
| 0.98857
| 8,300
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
rCey8oljqnbA0833RMvD
|
-will-apple-announce-a-watch-with-s
|
🩺 Will Apple announce a watch with some kind of blood-pressure monitoring in 2024?
| null | 1,710,773,048,442
| 1,735,686,984,840
| 1,735,686,984,840
|
NO
| 0.025357
| 15,478.778239
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
Ey6zPzCO29
|
will-kamala-harris-win-the-national
|
Will Kamala Harris win the national popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did?
| null | 1,730,480,183,397
| 1,730,882,711,810
| 1,730,882,711,810
|
NO
| 0.018146
| 38,940.092098
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nISAQzIyRl
|
will-the-presidential-election-get
|
Will the Presidential Election get called before Pennsylvania?
| null | 1,730,427,254,056
| 1,730,986,989,864
| 1,730,986,989,864
|
NO
| 0.01
| 32,287.673819
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0n36mvqkhz
|
will-kamala-harris-say-the-phrase-b
|
Will Kamala Harris say the phrase "Build a wall around Windsor, Colorado" in any context?
| null | 1,728,362,630,439
| 1,731,481,140,000
| 1,731,561,572,984
|
NO
| 0.01
| 17,513.521138
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
z79hy538jl
|
will-my-pixel-9-fold-be-money-well
|
Will my Pixel 9 Fold be money well spent?
| null | 1,724,625,960,279
| 1,734,010,795,948
| 1,734,010,795,948
|
YES
| 0.979054
| 8,948.219349
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
c262S55CRp
|
will-kamala-harris-win-north-caroli
|
Will Kamala Harris win North Carolina?
| null | 1,730,730,305,162
| 1,731,090,408,322
| 1,731,090,408,322
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,147.356891
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5CRgsd6Und
|
did-donald-trump-grope-a-teenager
|
Did Donald Trump grope a teenager?
| null | 1,729,722,632,083
| 1,730,786,340,000
| 1,730,806,330,106
|
NO
| 0.022927
| 15,348.390449
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
4qp471u7qu
|
will-nadu-winged-wisdom-be-banned-i-6prtu5t217
|
Will Nadu, Winged Wisdom be banned in Brawl by October?
| null | 1,720,036,573,010
| 1,727,848,740,000
| 1,727,853,166,407
|
NO
| 0.01
| 13,965.202154
|
Gaming
|
undefined
|
HgjLxdArJf6pvkv8Dp39
|
2024-formula-1-season-will-logan-sa-a4b2a3011a5c
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Logan Sargeant finish last in the Drivers Championship?
| null | 1,700,757,657,066
| 1,733,685,735,117
| 1,733,685,735,117
|
YES
| 0.983775
| 15,351.753669
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
i8b78fvhuu
|
will-the-first-confirmed-capture-of
|
Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,729,503,923,212
| 1,735,417,044,803
| 1,735,417,044,803
|
YES
| 0.843127
| 47,486.056343
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
jxrydqvnok
|
-shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-6xhy97g7dx
|
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
| null | 1,726,927,761,270
| 1,726,942,160,660
| 1,726,942,246,737
|
NO
| null | 1,233.351704
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
SqwWxDNXqt4nCGjLTZKZ
|
will-there-be-more-candidates-with
|
Will there be more candidates with 'Bolsonaro' in their ballot names in the 2024 Brazilian elections compared to 2020?
| null | 1,681,003,503,559
| 1,730,399,396,481
| 1,730,399,396,481
|
NO
| 0.016058
| 12,683.138828
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
NGb4UXMJl9JunauGvV17
|
will-openai-raise-over-5b-in-total
|
Will OpenAI raise over $5B in total venture funding by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,673,041,658,581
| 1,727,901,054,493
| 1,727,901,054,493
|
YES
| 0.98
| 5,866.784129
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
tXvOwtYZQC0mrXfptM3n
|
will-helldivers-2-be-awarded-game-o
|
Will Helldivers 2 be awarded Game of the Year?
| null | 1,711,311,418,691
| 1,732,049,126,247
| 1,732,049,126,247
|
NO
| 0.010002
| 12,822.818211
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
QLVGrny7AsAh2M0P2GgN
|
will-a-republican-win-minnesota-in
|
Will a Republican win Minnesota in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,274,736,572
| 1,730,879,548,020
| 1,730,879,548,020
|
NO
| 0.088631
| 3,890.616015
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
IpUqc5tycC
|
will-the-baltimore-ravens-claw-the-pZy6AI0h2u
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Houston Texans? 🏈|🎅 (Christmas Day)
| null | 1,734,024,844,647
| 1,735,178,410,788
| 1,735,178,410,788
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,090.83137
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
zIIOIZuSlZ
|
will-bitcoin-hit-105k-in-december
|
Will Bitcoin hit $105K in December?
| null | 1,734,050,996,095
| 1,734,307,540,122
| 1,734,307,540,122
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,770.135345
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
T6RAPzUgyn3H1ui79YrQ
|
will-the-tipping-point-state-in-the
|
Will the tipping point state in the 2024 election be decided by <1%?
| null | 1,686,112,921,501
| 1,731,473,305,474
| 1,731,473,305,474
|
NO
| 0.01
| 31,874.477352
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
SsAdHNNaI9hRRMe1XqgG
|
will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,670,450,667,281
| 1,730,761,200,000
| 1,730,883,273,851
|
YES
| 0.499907
| 3,750,751.084689
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
h2f1fj7v1r
|
will-democrats-win-oregon-by-15-per
|
Will Democrats win Oregon by 15 percent or more in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,112,838,310
| 1,733,338,111,375
| 1,733,338,111,375
|
NO
| 0.120831
| 2,043
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe
|
will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr
|
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
| null | 1,640,703,303,623
| 1,730,931,473,254
| 1,730,931,473,254
|
YES
| 0.99
| 20,260.78185
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
chhhr8skv
|
will-ukraine-armed-forces-reach-the
|
Will Ukraine armed forces reach the Seim river around Glushkovo and Tyotkino by December 2024?
| null | 1,724,227,112,718
| 1,732,928,340,000
| 1,733,386,567,817
|
NO
| 0.013998
| 2,577.857561
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
pzKI4MB7HaaaNQkPOWQJ
|
will-republicans-gain-control-of-th
|
Will Republicans gain control of the U.S. Senate in the 2024 election?
| null | 1,709,221,045,422
| 1,730,847,540,000
| 1,730,913,454,378
|
YES
| 0.803856
| 1,718.198871
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
rayndg3srp
|
will-the-us-lift-restrictions-on-uk
|
Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia? Aka "Deep Strikes"?
| null | 1,724,761,882,993
| 1,732,351,303,270
| 1,732,351,303,270
|
YES
| 0.965835
| 67,686.196264
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
f628UWN9qpc9wo27PwrT
|
will-any-opensource-model-rank-in-t
|
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at the end of 2024?
| null | 1,703,600,784,392
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,686,272,323
|
NO
| 0.048973
| 4,245.490343
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
3Kg9TzE7LkeTbgFd4d4h
|
will-rick-scott-win-reelection-in-t
|
Will Rick Scott win re-election in the 2024 US senate race in Florida?
| null | 1,680,633,750,446
| 1,731,289,436,570
| 1,731,289,436,570
|
YES
| 0.990853
| 2,381.680493
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8y5uLqs5pq
|
tug-of-war-lRpIlzzy99
|
Tug of war
| null | 1,733,677,589,046
| 1,733,806,740,000
| 1,733,839,633,476
|
NO
| 0.312441
| 2,427.279285
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
354DVfMGdTaWHyu4tabF
|
will-the-next-major-announcement-ab
|
Will the next major announcement about Jimmy Carter's health be his death?
| null | 1,711,125,810,015
| 1,735,517,480,897
| 1,735,517,480,897
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,482.602607
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
3tx8nmAGGQriYaCfrnDo
|
will-i-walk-5-million-steps-in-2024
|
Will I walk 5 million steps in 2024
| null | 1,707,634,598,761
| 1,735,544,376,138
| 1,735,544,376,138
|
YES
| 0.955069
| 7,365.316674
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ULpYWCagL8gSeeOyxKul
|
will-the-nasdaq-composite-index-fal
|
Will the NASDAQ Composite Index fall below 13,000 by the end of September 2024?
| null | 1,709,832,977,956
| 1,727,733,540,000
| 1,727,760,454,798
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,357.264588
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
pUBw0uFIpWxlHE90m3I1
|
will-someone-strengthen-our-goodhar
|
Will someone strengthen our Goodhart's Law result?
| null | 1,684,614,073,202
| 1,711,954,740,000
| 1,729,018,351,930
|
NO
| 0.12
| 1,312.708854
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
eD6mOL25408wS2VkZikE
|
will-the-winner-of-2024-us-presiden
|
Will the winner of 2024 US presidential election be less than 6ft (183cm) tall?
| null | 1,693,847,134,073
| 1,730,887,630,636
| 1,730,887,630,636
|
NO
| 0.448195
| 1,299.403135
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
7do87q375n
|
will-manifold-have-100k-in-mana-sal
|
Will Manifold have $100k in mana sales before the election following our sweepstakes launch?
| null | 1,726,622,405,646
| 1,730,497,655,198
| 1,730,497,655,198
|
YES
| 0.977139
| 72,774.285443
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
7MJVbMPdT7dL8vYVQf7L
|
will-donald-trump-publicly-condemn
|
Will Donald Trump publicly condemn the death of Alexei Navalny before Election Day?
| null | 1,708,309,012,547
| 1,730,782,740,000
| 1,730,787,384,647
|
NO
| 0.016569
| 8,965.256563
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
MAKBjUL2JfSPp9oibm5X
|
will-the-new-york-yankees-win-more-499c823e4499
|
Will the New York Yankees win more games than the New York Mets in the 2024 MLB season?
| null | 1,709,570,709,590
| 1,727,662,814,494
| 1,727,662,814,494
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,442.256755
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
c0PyyOCEq9
|
daniel-penny-serves-no-time-or-trum
|
Daniel Penny serves no time or Trump pardons him by mid 2026
| null | 1,731,459,522,332
| 1,733,794,214,478
| 1,733,794,214,478
|
YES
| 0.971935
| 5,764.197295
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
3DXAyR1kNHyokAdy3JqC
|
experimental-how-will-bitcoin-prefo
|
How will Bitcoin preform in 2024?
| null | 1,709,615,740,134
| 1,733,367,479,879
| 1,733,367,479,879
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,642.655549
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
i05d48l0bd
|
is-manifold-leagues-cohort-randomiz
|
Is Manifold Leagues' cohort randomization coded to put friends and people with similar trading interests together?
| null | 1,727,980,134,451
| 1,728,619,140,000
| 1,728,664,220,376
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,394.340863
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
pt1byeeqfg
|
will-the-first-question-of-the-2024
|
Will the first question of the 2024 Vice Presidential debate be about the Iran-Israel war?
| null | 1,727,805,097,313
| 1,727,836,866,885
| 1,727,836,866,885
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,791.636751
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
97qiy1j0pe
|
will-jd-vance-still-be-trumps-vp-ca
|
Will JD Vance still be Trump's VP candidate on election day?
| null | 1,721,717,902,408
| 1,730,847,540,000
| 1,730,906,524,782
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,965.617373
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
MwDowHgEN26Kq2no0qO3
|
will-donald-trump-still-be-alive-wh
|
Will Donald Trump still be alive when September ends?
| null | 1,710,880,221,860
| 1,727,733,540,000
| 1,727,734,475,930
|
YES
| 0.99
| 7,467.24551
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
vQNwkXqkw93PKAu4mgQ0
|
the-mens-official-marathon-world-re
|
The men's official marathon world record time will be under 2 hours by the end of 2024
| null | 1,697,356,624,291
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,735,670,621,057
|
NO
| 0.021429
| 7,828.594471
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
gNqd80plCz
|
will-this-market-get-at-least-30-un
|
Will this market get at least 30 unique traders?
| null | 1,733,179,736,807
| 1,733,236,860,462
| 1,733,236,860,462
|
YES
| 0.989216
| 10,120.717437
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
fnvex5kmbj
|
israel-military-response-against-ir
|
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
| null | 1,727,868,174,745
| 1,728,141,759,305
| 1,728,141,759,305
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,144.948542
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
p4rxBVmoh58MwnMtnP1a
|
will-online-gambling-be-a-notable-i
|
Will online gambling be a notable issue in the 2024 US presidential election debates?
| null | 1,671,748,574,698
| 1,730,678,340,000
| 1,730,753,442,669
|
NO
| 0.010111
| 9,743.577499
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
yq1fopdl66
|
will-a-new-york-team-win-the-world--cash
|
Will the New York Yankees win the World Series?
| null | 1,729,696,798,171
| 1,730,346,749,265
| 1,730,492,978,773
|
NO
| 0.010458
| 1,310.408991
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
MlMo8Kz2b7HKZbKfGueP
|
will-china-invade-taiwan-in-the-202-54683401eb26
|
Will China invade Taiwan in the 2024 October window?
| null | 1,704,383,865,639
| 1,730,501,940,000
| 1,730,529,342,029
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,815.960474
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
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