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values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4lni8wja5j
|
one-month-from-today-will-there-be-5l112so00p
|
One month from Today will there be an official release date for the next Game of Thrones book Winds of Winter?
| null | 1,729,140,184,967
| 1,731,819,540,000
| 1,731,823,587,975
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,475.360102
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
UQ1EDBfPUGmf7RnsX6Nh
|
will-scott-claim-the-cats-cradle-re
|
Will Scott claim the Cat's Cradle review in the 2024 ACX book review contest?
| null | 1,716,173,964,821
| 1,729,594,932,211
| 1,729,594,932,211
|
NO
| 0.01
| 17,387.684119
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
8Mhdxa0oMOnSEI5HjkLb
|
will-republicans-control-the-house-429658f4cc9d
|
Will Republicans control the House after the 2024 election?
| null | 1,696,739,557,558
| 1,731,557,500,683
| 1,731,557,500,683
|
YES
| 0.99
| 15,088.066883
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
jcogua9y1r
|
will-us-supreme-court-grant-a-stay
|
Will US Supreme Court grant a stay, overrule have official hearing on election law challenges before November election?
| null | 1,720,213,600,732
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,917,588,770
|
YES
| 0.300463
| 1,599
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
3zp5y5x0a4
|
will-the-hawk-tuah-girls-podcast-ta
|
Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 10 on Halloween?
| null | 1,727,613,116,554
| 1,730,444,340,000
| 1,730,471,046,991
|
NO
| 0.043496
| 1,099.268161
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
f8zg7nutrc
|
will-all-pixel-watches-get-wearos-5
|
Will all pixel watches get wearOS 5 on the pixel watch 3 release?
| null | 1,723,174,421,385
| 1,726,034,340,000
| 1,727,460,216,875
|
YES
| 0.58
| 1,837.279144
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
gVn2aoLV0vqeqCN0vB8r
|
will-ding-liren-play-in-the-next-wo
|
Will Ding Liren play in the next World Chess Championship match?
| null | 1,713,187,484,592
| 1,732,545,546,811
| 1,732,545,546,811
|
YES
| 0.989923
| 9,610.673383
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
2nzzyvxi6l
|
manifold-lottery-1-in-20-chance
|
Manifold lottery 1 in 20 chance
| null | 1,725,605,856,914
| 1,726,264,740,000
| 1,726,847,914,741
|
NO
| 0.05
| 3,589.585454
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v
|
will-rational-animations-second-vid
|
Will Rational Animations' video about Manifold Markets reach 200k views by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,689,430,421,795
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,686,164,779
|
NO
| 0.009903
| 46,014.810013
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
P2tZul6Ids
|
short-fuse-will-moana-2-gross-200-m
|
[Short fuse] Will "Moana 2" gross >$200 million during its 5-day domestic opening weekend?
| null | 1,732,740,351,601
| 1,733,241,129,279
| 1,733,241,129,279
|
YES
| 0.988783
| 1,293.871964
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
jtdnagchi8
|
will-gpt4-omni-be-released-by-the-e
|
Will GPT-4o ("omni") be released by the end of the year? (see description)
| null | 1,728,403,722,518
| 1,735,657,140,000
| 1,735,664,947,375
|
NO
| 0.186545
| 1,287.686455
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
z52fwwevki
|
one-month-from-today-will-jimmy-car-kgv6n76nq2
|
One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive?
| null | 1,726,460,260,076
| 1,729,137,540,000
| 1,729,140,206,075
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,297.457088
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
55uScQLyqh
|
will-rory-mcilroy-and-scottie-schef
|
Will Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler win The Showdown on December 17?
| null | 1,732,939,578,688
| 1,734,504,918,007
| 1,734,504,918,007
|
YES
| 0.99
| 4,954.384873
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
qak89vpfcv
|
will-intel-corporation-intc-stock-r-770y0ltpxe
|
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $30 USD this year ?
| null | 1,726,895,491,413
| 1,735,678,800,000
| 1,735,679,486,896
|
NO
| 0.012539
| 2,637.797252
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
16jsu3f2sq
|
will-trump-win-texas-by-10-points
|
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?
| null | 1,728,676,451,235
| 1,730,945,714,331
| 1,730,945,714,331
|
YES
| 0.989683
| 1,969.563002
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2wMoBoITkNBdrBCbVjv4
|
nfl-week-6-oct-13-will-the-las-vega
|
NFL Week 6 (Oct 13): Will the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Pittsburgh Steelers?
| null | 1,715,834,036,501
| 1,728,953,569,870
| 1,728,953,569,870
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,001.216571
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
sS5Wd3f0Tzr28O6HzriY
|
did-deep-sea-vision-really-find-ame
|
Did Deep Sea Vision really discover Amelia Earhart's plane?
| null | 1,706,555,628,056
| 1,732,475,662,952
| 1,732,475,662,952
|
NO
| 0.334684
| 3,202.176929
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
TqFP3D5x8b3KjeuSm3yj
|
will-tommy-devito-start-more-games
|
Will Tommy Devito start more games for the New York Giants than Daniel Jones, in the Calendar Year of 2024?
| null | 1,702,426,846,718
| 1,732,328,316,679
| 1,732,328,316,679
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,387.99409
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
Rb8BGBvmuOam2ndsACDA
|
will-both-demi-vollering-and-lotte
|
Will both Demi Vollering and Lotte Kopecky ride for Team SD Worx ProTime in 2025?
| null | 1,708,005,287,675
| 1,730,216,629,537
| 1,730,216,629,537
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,486.664609
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
02dZs9L6Ih
|
will-the-chicago-bears-maul-the-det
|
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Detroit Lions? 🏈|🦃 (12:30pm)
| null | 1,732,589,072,498
| 1,732,846,504,909
| 1,732,846,504,909
|
NO
| 0.01
| 13,763.126519
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
qqhId6hHJDgbtJa7Wr4D
|
will-republicans-maintain-control-o
|
Will Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
| null | 1,681,831,484,019
| 1,731,613,931,875
| 1,731,613,931,875
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,657.182368
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
p597npe3v4
|
will-bitcoin-end-august-31-2024-ove-4xcf3xjfia
|
Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $50000?
| null | 1,725,201,554,766
| 1,730,444,340,000
| 1,730,444,470,352
|
YES
| 0.99
| 17,557.826959
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ZLz3CX7rfAOK51qjUbbR
|
will-carlos-sainz-score-more-podium
|
Will Carlos Sainz score more podium finishes in 2024 than George Russell?
| null | 1,707,387,733,731
| 1,733,256,237,310
| 1,733,256,237,310
|
YES
| 0.988148
| 11,011.218572
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
B7qtNherBMWUKXsJnKTf
|
will-more-than-1000000-acres-burn-d
|
🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
| null | 1,704,584,761,991
| 1,727,727,152,784
| 1,727,727,152,784
|
YES
| 0.94
| 23,212.21241
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
HyryqQCIxdeRtx4GqfkN
|
will-the-time-person-of-the-year-be
|
Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024
| null | 1,701,872,376,014
| 1,734,008,751,263
| 1,734,008,751,263
|
YES
| 0.99
| 16,403.471145
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
sO6BXq85YhYQQv15O69F
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-b69eec529b40
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Nevada?
| null | 1,690,201,245,204
| 1,731,180,852,221
| 1,731,180,852,221
|
YES
| 0.989988
| 2,956.982436
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
z5TjAZ3fM36xX4hBiOzl
|
will-ukraine-joins-nato-before-ther
|
Will Ukraine joins NATO before there is a new largest known Prime number?
| null | 1,711,003,487,099
| 1,729,525,474,554
| 1,729,525,474,554
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,865.197563
|
Geopolitics
|
International Relations
|
AzSMiekbJSExodltJhuq
|
will-a-team-with-less-than-90-wins
|
Will a team with less than 90 wins win the 2024 MLB NLCS? ⚾ National League Championship Series
| null | 1,709,172,338,763
| 1,729,517,968,168
| 1,729,517,968,168
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,377.959887
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
7k9TISSStNJEH3hqYxAv
|
will-a-third-party-candidate-be-bla
|
Will a third party candidate be blamed in the concession speech of the 2024 US presidential race?
| null | 1,711,229,271,177
| 1,735,677,064,862
| 1,735,677,064,862
|
NO
| 0.011467
| 10,005.951086
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lk0fi7Cd28d1oy0w28hz
|
will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-elec
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
| null | 1,668,290,611,929
| 1,730,793,600,000
| 1,730,938,176,786
|
YES
| 0.510782
| 5,642.456709
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
52urria26h
|
will-nikki-haley-replace-jd-vance-o
|
Will Nikki Haley replace JD Vance on the Republican ticket?
| null | 1,722,025,887,173
| 1,730,819,932,680
| 1,730,819,932,680
|
NO
| 0.010541
| 1,082.866054
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yGMHIOxn8Ya60NyQeMq7
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-930c0e470f3a
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Arizona?
| null | 1,690,201,179,007
| 1,731,331,740,000
| 1,731,340,343,877
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,402.896858
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
hxz3wh5c6k
|
will-biden-save-harris-from-a-humil
|
Will Biden SAVE Harris from a humiliating defeat at the ballot box by mounting a HEROIC write-in campaign and WINNING?
| null | 1,727,918,391,408
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,730,872,872,191
|
NO
| 0.01
| 27,372.671924
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
uGpCfgPXpMctP75bcJUI
|
will-sam-altman-sue-openai
|
Will Sam altman sue openAI?
| null | 1,700,256,252,104
| 1,732,559,340,000
| 1,732,827,861,734
|
NO
| 0.016629
| 6,189.246525
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
8hged09le0
|
in-the-2024-united-states-president
|
In the 2024 United States presidential election, will the same party win all three of WI, MI, and PA?
| null | 1,722,876,671,656
| 1,730,988,615,533
| 1,730,988,615,533
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,624.651179
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
jq4xl0wb28
|
will-moldovas-eu-membership-referen
|
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?
| null | 1,729,424,288,380
| 1,730,156,998,983
| 1,730,156,998,983
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,950.010591
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
iK63Ml0C1iSetZUZurhA
|
will-republicans-retain-control-of
|
Will Republicans retain control of the U.S House in the 2024 elections?
| null | 1,674,782,871,622
| 1,731,379,586,053
| 1,731,379,586,053
|
YES
| 0.986718
| 11,199.820321
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1ahs26sicm
|
will-a-korean-team-win-worlds-2024
|
Will a Korean team win worlds 2024? (League of Legends)
| null | 1,729,090,493,537
| 1,730,587,367,821
| 1,730,587,367,821
|
YES
| 0.994526
| 17,545.797044
|
Gaming
|
Esports
|
y35osr7huo
|
will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-i2q9us7obx
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them?
| null | 1,719,164,591,501
| 1,727,793,463,405
| 1,727,793,463,405
|
YES
| 0.91
| 15,676.25688
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
z2PQZMJmaDg5yrXg6spV
|
will-at-least-six-candidates-win-at
|
Will at least six candidates win at least 1% of the national popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
| null | 1,696,882,904,283
| 1,731,380,854,226
| 1,731,380,854,226
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,251.224959
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
nv5364ex7h
|
will-the-2024-dnc-protests-be-serio
|
Will the 2024 DNC Protests be serious enough that a Wikipedia article is made about them?
| null | 1,723,917,914,008
| 1,727,067,540,000
| 1,727,068,535,674
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,353.496641
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qDbuhqu0WJsSIDHbR0Yz
|
will-2024-brazilian-municipal-elect
|
Will 2024 Brazilian municipal elections have more candidates with religious titles than 2020?
| null | 1,681,004,387,422
| 1,728,672,740,414
| 1,728,672,740,414
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,096.562661
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
aSBLsLBdHakRqZgZjvNt
|
will-a-democrat-win-an-absolute-maj
|
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,694,708,907,146
| 1,730,906,559,449
| 1,730,906,559,449
|
NO
| 0.000013
| 44,884.329642
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
W2lTWDpvObmG62igsQtt
|
will-the-candidate-who-wins-michiga
|
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,690,286,698,709
| 1,730,950,952,215
| 1,730,950,952,215
|
YES
| 0.989525
| 14,383.619219
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9SU7r09zT4f6j4r7KGzZ
|
will-i-reach-an-unbroken-500-day-pr
|
Will I reach an unbroken 500 day prediction streak?
| null | 1,695,824,451,015
| 1,733,115,540,000
| 1,733,672,220,697
|
YES
| 0.979025
| 5,893.599489
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
NU0QfRi8sBrEGBuw0ZTV
|
will-trump-be-in-a-state-of-incarce
|
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024?
| null | 1,688,228,279,740
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,904,846,677
|
NO
| 0.01
| 36,851.503285
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
D2DQcGvhDFM8AGpqdz2D
|
will-the-federal-reserve-cut-reduce
|
Will the federal reserve cut (reduce) interest rates before 2025?
| null | 1,715,013,688,097
| 1,727,285,213,530
| 1,727,285,213,530
|
YES
| 0.99
| 19,894.893646
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
6bqwmcr4qz
|
will-lincoln-appear-in-biden-vs-tru
|
Will Lincoln appear in presidential epic rap battle of History 2024
| null | 1,719,365,124,622
| 1,729,897,140,000
| 1,729,962,754,252
|
NO
| 0.48
| 1,434.543617
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
q4j5n5eRi2FlopIwxw3k
|
will-maines-second-congressional-me
|
Will Maine's second congressional district (ME-02) flip blue in 2024?
| null | 1,695,013,353,006
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,934,554,048
|
NO
| 0.097788
| 2,424.42836
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
geho1z0o4z
|
will-belarus-fire-into-ukraine-terr
|
Will Belarus fire into Ukraine territory in 2024
| null | 1,723,390,355,613
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,688,114,588
|
NO
| 0.034643
| 4,912.437338
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
yDxUNFp4JexhMkeCh7t1
|
will-jimmy-carter-die-before-king-c
|
Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III?
| null | 1,711,240,036,069
| 1,735,674,597,321
| 1,735,674,597,321
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,273.421857
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
uglASLdEly
|
how-will-the-how-will-the-will-trum
|
How will the "How will the "Will Trump win >20% of votes in Philadelphia County, PA?" market resolve?" market resolve?
| null | 1,733,031,795,116
| 1,733,838,181,658
| 1,733,838,181,658
|
NO
| 0.01753
| 1,151.349963
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
RtXZ8pAHDIqbBNkDqnKC
|
will-bill-gates-make-1-or-more-twee-9ea43df904fa
|
Will Bill Gates make 1 or more Tweeter(X) posts in Oct 2024?
| null | 1,707,010,771,486
| 1,730,433,540,000
| 1,730,481,090,778
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,659.559139
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
O9UOSIcEygHiZJ9RqgJm
|
will-joe-biden-win-the-nobel-peace
|
Will Joe Biden win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024?
| null | 1,701,181,015,723
| 1,728,014,340,000
| 1,728,956,813,369
|
NO
| 0.01
| 19,489.96342
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lNzH6LADhbjLaIWljOsO
|
will-the-price-of-bitcoin-surpass-1
|
Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025?
| null | 1,704,864,854,620
| 1,733,371,048,540
| 1,733,371,048,540
|
YES
| 0.99
| 18,796.832266
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
w8qmtsh0tp
|
will-harris-lead-in-the-538-electio-rp355k8pzc
|
Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st?
| null | 1,724,793,295,790
| 1,730,123,940,000
| 1,730,393,697,528
|
NO
| 0.038202
| 10,359.706852
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
a000521oe0
|
metaculus-will-a-us-vice-presidenti-smsdn7uohy
|
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?
| null | 1,723,473,613,867
| 1,728,848,513,985
| 1,728,848,513,985
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,108.838792
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
q3teq9qqk2
|
will-september-2024-be-the-hottest-nvik7oaqdv
|
Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data)
| null | 1,725,434,328,917
| 1,729,551,130,825
| 1,729,551,130,825
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,316.918788
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
wNYcRF2ZvouoBcwf4LBr
|
will-djt-stock-close-at-over-75-any
|
Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024?
| null | 1,711,484,306,157
| 1,735,622,170,010
| 1,735,622,170,010
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,136.909687
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
LCqGYaBLA03Bqf19i2Wo
|
will-ftx-retail-investors-get-their
|
What percentage of their assets will FTX.com retail investors get back?
| null | 1,668,067,670,235
| 1,735,390,499,248
| 1,735,390,499,248
|
YES
| 0.970374
| 22,643.502295
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
l7mPHP4P0H5araicV5ve
|
-will-florida-guarantee-the-right-t
|
🗳️🔫🎣 Ballot Props: Will Florida guarantee the right to hunt and fish in the state constitution?
| null | 1,708,879,189,190
| 1,730,870,076,760
| 1,730,870,076,760
|
YES
| 0.973153
| 1,133.923501
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
Msj6cPTl9vVJedT4pkA9
|
will-jimmy-carter-live-to-see-the-n
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Prime Minister of Canada?
| null | 1,711,555,516,624
| 1,735,516,264,784
| 1,735,516,264,784
|
NO
| 0.013389
| 1,409.272003
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
KsOtGPzFqvW9y0bPmYTS
|
will-perez-get-more-points-then-lec
|
Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
| null | 1,713,793,233,390
| 1,732,451,044,734
| 1,732,451,045,736
|
NO
| 0.010661
| 12,626.070693
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
gwWt6kX3xZjSTCAnqUbC
|
will-trump-be-convicted-in-federal-aa9f15f560f2
|
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?
| null | 1,686,274,622,330
| 1,730,824,577,757
| 1,730,824,577,757
|
NO
| 0.017443
| 37,376.799353
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
oqznalvnwx
|
will-israel-launch-a-full-ground-in-h78gttb7a7
|
Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025?
| null | 1,728,560,459,193
| 1,733,739,495,960
| 1,733,739,495,960
|
YES
| 0.8
| 24,882.170056
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
bfn9epzf6e
|
metaculus-will-youtube-be-banned-in
|
[Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
| null | 1,723,127,585,542
| 1,727,880,816,335
| 1,727,880,816,335
|
NO
| null | 11,162.038334
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
2s8rh28nia
|
will-lafc-beat-sporting-kc-2024-lam
|
Will LAFC beat Sporting KC? ⚽ | 🏆 2024 Lamar Hunt US Open Cup
| null | 1,725,212,241,527
| 1,727,350,045,957
| 1,727,350,045,957
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,680.732406
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
mifxod5oqd
|
will-crowdstrike-holdings-inc-crwd-8czxfeg4uj
|
Will Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD) close higher than $350, on 31st October 2024?
| null | 1,728,681,018,985
| 1,730,419,140,000
| 1,730,420,824,192
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,959.797752
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
v541i3v36m
|
nice-market
|
Nice market
| null | 1,727,661,859,413
| 1,728,284,340,000
| 1,729,695,417,079
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,245.358298
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
wzuvJsDqCm6gAX6lFjOr
|
will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $900 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
| null | 1,714,999,595,170
| 1,735,671,427,622
| 1,735,671,427,622
|
YES
| 0.988184
| 20,585.495514
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
mfkeikhxzz
|
will-anyone-attempt-to-assassinate
|
Will anyone attempt to assassinate Kamala Harris before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,726,493,452,095
| 1,735,657,140,000
| 1,735,671,203,075
|
NO
| 0.014913
| 1,035.971864
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
qzgHqcM25tanXhyArECZ
|
will-fortnite-still-be-the-most-sea-a62b947c23fa
|
Will 'Fortnite' still be the most searched game term on Pornhub in 2024?
| null | 1,702,590,783,443
| 1,734,757,140,000
| 1,734,758,799,926
|
YES
| 0.978755
| 1,504.350327
|
Gaming
|
Gaming Culture
|
t8pEkiHRJlHcTTlX6cj4
|
will-manifold-hit-15k-dau-7day-aver
|
Will Manifold "hit 15k DAU (7-day average) by Sept 30th" 2024? (lol)
| null | 1,710,544,942,555
| 1,727,733,540,000
| 1,727,734,259,652
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,793.524244
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
9XKhU6UFXvW09Wtklwb0
|
conditional-on-a-republican-winning
|
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote?
| null | 1,690,391,794,787
| 1,733,032,740,000
| 1,733,044,180,103
|
YES
| 0.99
| 7,034.984685
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
z7QQ2LOkrBuHLAorN8z0
|
will-vincent-keymer-be-ranked-in-th-7ae0579912dd
|
Will Vincent Keymer be ranked in the top 5 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024?
| null | 1,705,487,866,720
| 1,734,053,266,355
| 1,734,053,266,355
|
NO
| 0.01
| 13,052.673688
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
8l0n8xq0rJciWSMXdNRs
|
will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp-444282aeb96c
|
Will there be an attempted autogolpe during 2024?
| null | 1,699,748,172,354
| 1,733,568,294,734
| 1,733,568,294,734
|
YES
| 0.989989
| 1,239.797237
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
hcqj6tk5cl
|
will-the-feds-lower-rates-a-second
|
Will the Feds lower rates a second time in 2024?
| null | 1,726,710,352,911
| 1,731,040,641,130
| 1,731,040,641,130
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,169.945466
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
UGuNEUtNpZdFEO0wEt5R
|
will-they-give-shadow-the-hedgehog
|
Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie?
| null | 1,713,753,361,854
| 1,734,712,834,627
| 1,734,712,834,627
|
YES
| 0.979672
| 10,234.407748
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
vH37oTY7EeewyGbVpGHc
|
will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas-c2da2973e74e
|
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,709,480,841,138
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,686,185,289
|
NO
| 0.022093
| 1,828.362974
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ehq38vbvh9
|
will-kamala-harris-have-a-higher-pr
|
Will Kamala Harris have a higher probability on the Sweepcash market than the Mana market on 10/1/24?
| null | 1,726,614,969,406
| 1,727,852,340,000
| 1,735,343,545,018
|
NO
| 0.27
| 1,175.992497
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
s1ics6d5lv
|
polymarketlinked-will-ukraine-hit-m
|
[Polymarket-linked] Will Ukraine hit Moscow or the Crimean Bridge before October (2.0)?
| null | 1,725,580,237,356
| 1,727,765,940,000
| 1,727,828,626,706
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,651.111311
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
3fOP3bD5ATmNKTD3jpFO
|
will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru-8ac5db413a81
|
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
| null | 1,710,308,160,126
| 1,730,867,681,547
| 1,730,867,681,547
|
NO
| 0.017668
| 3,261.77643
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Ly0ZcIEhUS
|
will-the-pa-secretary-of-state-cert
|
Will the PA Secretary of State certify David McCormick as the winner of the 2024 senate election?
| null | 1,731,967,508,948
| 1,732,235,870,060
| 1,732,235,870,060
|
YES
| 0.949386
| 3,331
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
gk1o1zc5g4
|
will-manifold-return-mana-loans-bef
|
Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,727,873,030,883
| 1,733,573,580,312
| 1,733,573,580,312
|
YES
| 0.992394
| 20,667.064378
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
9ghDMaR9PGTcD3NCEAOY
|
will-the-us-federal-government-char
|
Will the US federal government charge McKinsey criminally for its role in promoting opioid use?
| null | 1,714,006,508,395
| 1,734,309,360,000
| 1,734,328,346,184
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,811.965948
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
FwqSadG0HFW5pGOc9w4s
|
will-michigan-vote-more-republican
|
Will Michigan vote more Republican than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election?
| null | 1,709,326,847,406
| 1,731,283,814,415
| 1,731,283,814,415
|
NO
| 0.05184
| 1,348.870915
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
TDuvEPO3tb56UjIX8Qij
|
nfl-week-15-dec-12-2024-will-the-sa
|
NFL Week 15 (Dec 12 2024): Will the San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,545,103
| 1,734,140,223,029
| 1,734,140,223,029
|
NO
| 0.006944
| 1,314.177868
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
0xh6fc1pg8
|
metaculus-what-is-the-probability-t
|
[Metaculus] What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point bet...and next meeting (10/10)?
| null | 1,728,243,696,555
| 1,728,684,000,000
| 1,728,848,612,073
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,949
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ivAxuMoJn5Y9cwHwjkzi
|
will-manifold-introduce-any-incenti
|
Will manifold introduce any incentives for betting on long term markets this year?
| null | 1,714,037,801,947
| 1,733,505,842,186
| 1,733,505,842,186
|
YES
| 0.99
| 7,780.792065
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
n4W3a6gOE4O9fYqq6Pg5
|
the-us-fed-will-do-a-rate-cut-befor
|
The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.
| null | 1,690,452,488,591
| 1,727,222,991,592
| 1,727,222,991,592
|
YES
| 0.99
| 38,841.860906
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
fplb5cjab0
|
will-harris-or-walz-work-at-mcdonal
|
Will Harris or Walz work at McDonald’s before the election?
| null | 1,729,506,696,218
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,870,713,451
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,272.287467
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
lVSCGQiUgAkk1Q0ztoEb
|
will-bitcoin-reach-100000
|
Will Bitcoin reach $100000
| null | 1,704,308,790,108
| 1,733,489,072,366
| 1,733,489,072,366
|
YES
| 0.998739
| 35,787.633617
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
P04rgDVZclNkcAdPZYu0
|
will-any-of-biden-trump-or-mira-be-9c3dc98ad728
|
Will any of Biden, Trump, or @Mira be elected president in 2024?
| null | 1,709,157,231,118
| 1,731,285,041,750
| 1,731,285,041,750
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,731.019431
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yaxFUesYgkYmBrRFShtU
|
will-aigenerated-text-suggestions-b-416a5d9fabd4
|
Will AI-generated text suggestions be publicly available on Microsoft Outlook by end of 2024?
| null | 1,673,215,767,322
| 1,734,811,393,511
| 1,734,811,393,511
|
YES
| 0.974033
| 1,673.188281
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
pchwKMnbqBuYfZvzqHiT
|
will-demis-hassabis-win-a-nobel-pri
|
Will Demis Hassabis win a Nobel prize?
| null | 1,691,950,375,280
| 1,728,479,966,496
| 1,728,479,966,496
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,345.187574
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
Z7yQiyj6GWtbUQACxEld
|
will-a-manifold-celebrity-appear-on
|
Will a Manifold celebrity appear on the Joe Rogan Experience by EOY 2024?
| null | 1,712,051,593,998
| 1,730,913,531,715
| 1,730,913,531,715
|
YES
| 0.985647
| 9,718.854111
|
Entertainment
|
Celebrity & Pop Culture
|
j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW
|
will-donald-trump-die-of-causes-nat
|
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
| null | 1,717,455,788,487
| 1,730,783,837,005
| 1,730,783,837,005
|
NO
| 0.013144
| 55,083.115217
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
zJswumDJHZJ6qfc4uTDI
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-799138703e51
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height?
| null | 1,658,847,258,409
| 1,731,090,553,088
| 1,731,090,553,088
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,107.360035
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2eV6rBteIBspexWdkhc4
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-445a123e528c
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of New Hampshire?
| null | 1,690,201,613,764
| 1,730,963,258,012
| 1,730,963,258,012
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,037.417885
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
DkglFDF7K7DOVhapb92J
|
will-russia-issue-an-ultimatum-this
|
Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?
| null | 1,711,393,902,729
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,687,783,266
|
NO
| 0.01812
| 7,837.369408
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
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