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years to become integrated into business productivity |
tools.5 To an extent, the febrile current discussion |
around generative AI, however, obscures some |
attributes that will shape its impact. |
First, generative AI is a rapidly evolving field: it did not |
spring into existence with the release of ChatGPT |
and its development is far from complete. McKinsey |
describes a rush to throw money at all things generative |
AI between 2017 and 2022. During those years, private |
investments in the technology rose at an average annual |
compound rate of 74%, far outstripping the equivalent |
growth rate for AI as a whole of 29%.6 Similarly, tools and |
products incorporating generative AI have continued to |
develop rapidly in recent months (see Figure 3). |
Second, generative AI looks set to build on and |
supplement existing technologies, rather than |
necessarily replace them on a grand scale. As Chia |
notes, you definitely need a clear use case to start |
trying out any new technology. Any such cases will |
arise from what generative AI can do compared to |
existing tools. |
These may be more limited than popular imagination |
appreciates. Tools enabled by older versions of AI, |
for example are now called just software, says John |
Mileham, chief technology officer at Betterment, a |
robo-advisor that assists users in automated investing. |
And such tools have already played a crucial role in |
the ongoing digitalization of financial services firms |
and other companies. Theres little point in deploying |
generative AI where less advanced technologies are |
doing the job as effectively and at low cost. Indeed, |
some analysts project that, while generative AI will have |
a very large economic impact, it will be markedly less |
than that of earlier iterations of AI.7 |
Its not magic |
The use cases will arise from what generative AI |
can deliver that other tools cannot. The striking new |
capacity of generative AI is best illustrated by a brief |
Figure 2: The breakout technology of 2023 |
ChatGPT gained more than 100 million active users across the globe within a span of two months, a much |
faster rate than that of other platforms. |
Source: Compiled by MIT Technology Review Insights, based on data from Generative Artificial Intelligence in Finance: Risk Considerations, International |
Monetary Fund, 2023. |
70 |
60 |
50 |
40 |
30 |
20 |
10 |
0 |
ChatGPT |
TikTok |
Uber |
Instagram |
Telegram |
Pinterest |
Facebook |
Spotify |
Twitter |
Months to gain 100 million users |
8 |
MIT Technology Review Insights |
comparison with older forms of AI. Put simply, older |
AI tools can train themselves on huge amounts of |
structured data and can answer specific questions |
asked in programming-like language. |
Generative AI can learn from an even larger body of |
informationincluding unstructured dataand it can |
create apparently novel content in response to natural |
language questions. Older AI tools, for example, can |
tell users if something is a cat. Generative AI can |
generate a new image of a cat. |
In short, generative AIs strength is that it allows users |
to ask questions in natural language and receive |
output that provides readily comprehensive answers |
in different formats based on a huge corpus of |
information. This can involve, among other things, the |
generation of new text, pictures, computer code, or |
even large data sets. |
The potential value of this creativity is substantial but |
should not be overestimated. For example, generative |
AI can generate a data set based on existing ones, says |
Rama Cont, chair of mathematical finance and head of |
the Oxford mathematical and computational finance |
group at Oxford University. However, while it may be |
even 100 times larger, it wont have more information, |
he explains. It can extrapolate to certain situations, |
provided you have similar data sets on which to train it. |
In the cat example, the picture will rely on existing |
knowledge of cats but will be unable to create something |
new. Such extrapolation of existing data is a nice |
feature of generative AI, says Cont, but not magic. |
Figure 3: Six months in the life of generative AI |
Starting in late 2022, new iterations of generative AI technology have been released several times a month. |
Timeline of major large language model (LLM) developments following Chat GPTs launch |
Nov. 2022 |
Dec. |
Jan. 2023 Feb. March April |