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widespread digitalization and may continue to do so. |
In addition, newer companies, notably fintechs, do not |
face this issue. The burden of legacy technology will |
therefore likely diminish, a process that generative AI, if |
anything, can accelerate. |
As is the case with any new technology, talent with |
expertise specifically in generative AI is in short supply |
across the economy. For now, financial services |
companies appear to be training staff rather than |
bidding to recruit from a sparse specialist pool. That |
said, the difficulty in finding AI talent is already starting |
to ebb, a process that would mirror those seen with the |
rise of cloud and other new technologies. |
More difficult to overcome may be weaknesses in |
the technology itself and regulatory hurdles to its |
rollout for certain tasks. Financial services companies |
aiming to benefit from generative AI face several |
hurdles. First, general, off-the-shelf tools are unlikely to |
adequately perform complex, specific tasks, such as |
portfolio analysis and selection. Companies will need |
to train their own models, a process that will require |
substantial time and investment. |
Once such software is complete, its output may |
be problematic. The risks of bias and lack of |
accountability in AI are well known. Finding ways to |
validate complex output from generative AI has yet to |
see success. Any new tool has to be designed to avoid |
violating other actors intellectual property (IP) rights; |
and generative AI algorithms may act unpredictably |
even illegallyespecially when interacting with other |
ones. Finally, so-called hallucinations, or confident |
wrong answers, are a worry with any use of generative |
AI. These risks mean that financial services companies |
must be cautious in how they deploy generative AI. |
Financial regulators are certainly wary about how |
these tools may be used. Companies are hoping |
for guidance, but this will take time. Authorities |
acknowledge that they need to study the implications |
of generative AI more, and historically they have rarely |
approved tools before rollout. Meanwhile, the possible |
benefits of any extensive use of generative AI need to |
be weighed against regulatory dangers. |
Adoption of generative AI is growing in the financial |
services sector, but it is so far limited to automation of |
low-value activities where its use can be monitored by |
humans or would not pose unacceptable risks. |
6 |
MIT Technology Review Insights |
02 |
02 |
T |
o much of the public, the release of ChatGPT in |
late 2022 was the first shot in a new |
technological revolution. Since then, interest in |
generative AI has soared. For example, Google |
searches for the term have risen dramatically |
in the past year (see Figure 1). |
With this interest has come rapid adoption by users |
across societies and economies. International Monetary |
Fund (IMF) research shows that uptake of ChatGPT |
alonejust the most prominent of many generative AI |
toolshas been extremely rapid even by the standards |
of popular technology adoption (see Figure 2).4 |
The promise of |
generative AI |
We tend to overestimate |
the impact of any new |
technology in the short |
run and underestimate it |
in the long run. |
Chia Hock Lai, Co-Founder, Global Fintech |
Institute |
Figure 1: The internet discovers a new interest |
Searches for the term generative AI by Google users have surged since late 2022, reflecting rapidly growing |
interest in the technology. |
Note: Interest over time: A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. |
Source: Compiled by MIT Technology Review Insights, based on data from Google Trends, 2023. |
100 |
75 |
50 |
25 |
0 |
Oct. 30, 2022 |
March 5, 2023 |
July 9, 2023 |
Oct. 15-21, 2023 |
Generative AI 80 |
Interest over time |
7 |
MIT Technology Review Insights |
As with every new technology, a degree of excessive |
expectationand fearis inevitably driving the |
discussion. Chia Hock Lai, co-founder of the Global |
Fintech Institute, says he sees a lot of hype now: We |
tend to overestimate the impact of any new technology |
in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. |
Time for a more measured assessment |
Indeed, Gartner reported in August 2023 that |
generative AI had peaked in its emerging technologies |
hype cycle, after which it would likely take two to five |