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| WEBVTT | |
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| As part of MIT course 6S099, Artificial General Intelligence, | |
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| I've gotten the chance to sit down with Max Tegmark. | |
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| He is a professor here at MIT. | |
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| He's a physicist, spent a large part of his career | |
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| studying the mysteries of our cosmological universe. | |
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| But he's also studied and delved into the beneficial | |
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| possibilities and the existential risks | |
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| of artificial intelligence. | |
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| Amongst many other things, he is the cofounder | |
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| of the Future of Life Institute, author of two books, | |
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| both of which I highly recommend. | |
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| First, Our Mathematical Universe. | |
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| Second is Life 3.0. | |
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| He's truly an out of the box thinker and a fun personality, | |
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| so I really enjoy talking to him. | |
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| If you'd like to see more of these videos in the future, | |
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| please subscribe and also click the little bell icon | |
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| to make sure you don't miss any videos. | |
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| Also, Twitter, LinkedIn, agi.mit.edu | |
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| if you wanna watch other lectures | |
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| or conversations like this one. | |
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| Better yet, go read Max's book, Life 3.0. | |
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| Chapter seven on goals is my favorite. | |
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| It's really where philosophy and engineering come together | |
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| and it opens with a quote by Dostoevsky. | |
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| The mystery of human existence lies not in just staying alive | |
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| but in finding something to live for. | |
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| Lastly, I believe that every failure rewards us | |
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| with an opportunity to learn | |
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| and in that sense, I've been very fortunate | |
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| to fail in so many new and exciting ways | |
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| and this conversation was no different. | |
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| I've learned about something called | |
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| radio frequency interference, RFI, look it up. | |
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| Apparently, music and conversations | |
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| from local radio stations can bleed into the audio | |
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| that you're recording in such a way | |
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| that it almost completely ruins that audio. | |
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| It's an exceptionally difficult sound source to remove. | |
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| So, I've gotten the opportunity to learn | |
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| how to avoid RFI in the future during recording sessions. | |
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| I've also gotten the opportunity to learn | |
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| how to use Adobe Audition and iZotope RX 6 | |
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| to do some noise, some audio repair. | |
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| Of course, this is an exceptionally difficult noise | |
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| to remove. | |
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| I am an engineer. | |
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| I'm not an audio engineer. | |
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| Neither is anybody else in our group | |
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| but we did our best. | |
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| Nevertheless, I thank you for your patience | |
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| and I hope you're still able to enjoy this conversation. | |
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| Do you think there's intelligent life | |
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| out there in the universe? | |
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| Let's open up with an easy question. | |
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| I have a minority view here actually. | |
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| When I give public lectures, I often ask for a show of hands | |
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| who thinks there's intelligent life out there somewhere else | |
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| and almost everyone put their hands up | |
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| and when I ask why, they'll be like, | |
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| oh, there's so many galaxies out there, there's gotta be. | |
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| But I'm a numbers nerd, right? | |
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| So when you look more carefully at it, | |
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| it's not so clear at all. | |
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| When we talk about our universe, first of all, | |
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| we don't mean all of space. | |
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| We actually mean, I don't know, | |
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| you can throw me the universe if you want, | |
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| it's behind you there. | |
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| It's, we simply mean the spherical region of space | |
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| from which light has a time to reach us so far | |
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| during the 14.8 billion year, | |
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| 13.8 billion years since our Big Bang. | |
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| There's more space here but this is what we call a universe | |
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| because that's all we have access to. | |
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| So is there intelligent life here | |
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| that's gotten to the point of building telescopes | |
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| and computers? | |
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| My guess is no, actually. | |
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| The probability of it happening on any given planet | |
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| is some number we don't know what it is. | |
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| And what we do know is that the number can't be super high | |
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| because there's over a billion Earth like planets | |
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| in the Milky Way galaxy alone, | |
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| many of which are billions of years older than Earth. | |
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| And aside from some UFO believers, | |
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| there isn't much evidence | |
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| that any superduran civilization has come here at all. | |
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| And so that's the famous Fermi paradox, right? | |
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| And then if you work the numbers, | |
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| what you find is that if you have no clue | |
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| what the probability is of getting life on a given planet, | |
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| so it could be 10 to the minus 10, 10 to the minus 20, | |
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| or 10 to the minus two, or any power of 10 | |
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| is sort of equally likely | |
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| if you wanna be really open minded, | |
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| that translates into it being equally likely | |
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| that our nearest neighbor is 10 to the 16 meters away, | |
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| 10 to the 17 meters away, 10 to the 18. | |
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| By the time you get much less than 10 to the 16 already, | |
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| we pretty much know there is nothing else that close. | |
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| And when you get beyond 10. | |
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| Because they would have discovered us. | |
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| Yeah, they would have been discovered as long ago, | |
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| or if they're really close, | |
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| we would have probably noted some engineering projects | |
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| that they're doing. | |
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| And if it's beyond 10 to the 26 meters, | |
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| that's already outside of here. | |
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| So my guess is actually that we are the only life in here | |
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| that's gotten the point of building advanced tech, | |
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| which I think is very, | |
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| puts a lot of responsibility on our shoulders, not screw up. | |
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| I think people who take for granted | |
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| that it's okay for us to screw up, | |
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| have an accidental nuclear war or go extinct somehow | |
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| because there's a sort of Star Trek like situation out there | |
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| where some other life forms are gonna come and bail us out | |
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| and it doesn't matter as much. | |
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| I think they're leveling us into a false sense of security. | |
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| I think it's much more prudent to say, | |
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| let's be really grateful | |
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| for this amazing opportunity we've had | |
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| and make the best of it just in case it is down to us. | |
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| So from a physics perspective, | |
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| do you think intelligent life, | |
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| so it's unique from a sort of statistical view | |
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| of the size of the universe, | |
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| but from the basic matter of the universe, | |
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| how difficult is it for intelligent life to come about? | |
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| The kind of advanced tech building life | |
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| is implied in your statement that it's really difficult | |
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| to create something like a human species. | |
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| Well, I think what we know is that going from no life | |
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| to having life that can do a level of tech, | |
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| there's some sort of two going beyond that | |
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| than actually settling our whole universe with life. | |
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| There's some major roadblock there, | |
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| which is some great filter as it's sometimes called, | |
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| which is tough to get through. | |
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| It's either that roadblock is either behind us | |
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| or in front of us. | |
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| I'm hoping very much that it's behind us. | |
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| I'm super excited every time we get a new report from NASA | |
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| saying they failed to find any life on Mars. | |
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| I'm like, yes, awesome. | |
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| Because that suggests that the hard part, | |
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| maybe it was getting the first ribosome | |
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| or some very low level kind of stepping stone | |
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| so that we're home free. | |
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| Because if that's true, | |
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| then the future is really only limited | |
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| by our own imagination. | |
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| It would be much suckier if it turns out | |
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| that this level of life is kind of a dime a dozen, | |
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| but maybe there's some other problem. | |
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| Like as soon as a civilization gets advanced technology, | |
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| within a hundred years, | |
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| they get into some stupid fight with themselves and poof. | |
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| That would be a bummer. | |
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| Yeah, so you've explored the mysteries of the universe, | |
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| the cosmological universe, the one that's sitting | |
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| between us today. | |
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| I think you've also begun to explore the other universe, | |
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| which is sort of the mystery, | |
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| the mysterious universe of the mind of intelligence, | |
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| of intelligent life. | |
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| So is there a common thread between your interest | |
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| or the way you think about space and intelligence? | |
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| Oh yeah, when I was a teenager, | |
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| I was already very fascinated by the biggest questions. | |
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| And I felt that the two biggest mysteries of all in science | |
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| were our universe out there and our universe in here. | |
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| So it's quite natural after having spent | |
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| a quarter of a century on my career, | |
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| thinking a lot about this one, | |
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| that I'm now indulging in the luxury | |
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| of doing research on this one. | |
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| It's just so cool. | |
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| I feel the time is ripe now | |
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| for you trans greatly deepening our understanding of this. | |
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| Just start exploring this one. | |
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| Yeah, because I think a lot of people view intelligence | |
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| as something mysterious that can only exist | |
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| in biological organisms like us, | |
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| and therefore dismiss all talk | |
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| about artificial general intelligence as science fiction. | |
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| But from my perspective as a physicist, | |
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| I am a blob of quarks and electrons | |
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| moving around in a certain pattern | |
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| and processing information in certain ways. | |
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| And this is also a blob of quarks and electrons. | |
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| I'm not smarter than the water bottle | |
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| because I'm made of different kinds of quarks. | |
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| I'm made of up quarks and down quarks, | |
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| exact same kind as this. | |
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| There's no secret sauce, I think, in me. | |
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| It's all about the pattern of the information processing. | |
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| And this means that there's no law of physics | |
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| saying that we can't create technology, | |
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| which can help us by being incredibly intelligent | |
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| and help us crack mysteries that we couldn't. | |
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| In other words, I think we've really only seen | |
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| the tip of the intelligence iceberg so far. | |
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| Yeah, so the perceptronium. | |
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| Yeah. | |
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| So you coined this amazing term. | |
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| It's a hypothetical state of matter, | |
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| sort of thinking from a physics perspective, | |
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| what is the kind of matter that can help, | |
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| as you're saying, subjective experience emerge, | |
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| consciousness emerge. | |
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| So how do you think about consciousness | |
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| from this physics perspective? | |
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| Very good question. | |
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| So again, I think many people have underestimated | |
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| our ability to make progress on this | |
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| by convincing themselves it's hopeless | |
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| because somehow we're missing some ingredient that we need. | |
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| There's some new consciousness particle or whatever. | |
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| I happen to think that we're not missing anything | |
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| and that it's not the interesting thing | |
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| about consciousness that gives us | |
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| this amazing subjective experience of colors | |
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| and sounds and emotions. | |
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| It's rather something at the higher level | |
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| about the patterns of information processing. | |
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| And that's why I like to think about this idea | |
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| of perceptronium. | |
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| What does it mean for an arbitrary physical system | |
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| to be conscious in terms of what its particles are doing | |
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| or its information is doing? | |
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| I don't think, I hate carbon chauvinism, | |
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| this attitude you have to be made of carbon atoms | |
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| to be smart or conscious. | |
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| There's something about the information processing | |
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| that this kind of matter performs. | |
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| Yeah, and you can see I have my favorite equations here | |
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| describing various fundamental aspects of the world. | |
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| I feel that I think one day, | |
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| maybe someone who's watching this will come up | |
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| with the equations that information processing | |
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| has to satisfy to be conscious. | |
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| I'm quite convinced there is big discovery | |
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| to be made there because let's face it, | |
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| we know that so many things are made up of information. | |
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| We know that some information processing is conscious | |
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| because we are conscious. | |
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| But we also know that a lot of information processing | |
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| is not conscious. | |
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| Like most of the information processing happening | |
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| in your brain right now is not conscious. | |
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| There are like 10 megabytes per second coming in | |
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| even just through your visual system. | |
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| You're not conscious about your heartbeat regulation | |
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| or most things. | |
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| Even if I just ask you to like read what it says here, | |
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| you look at it and then, oh, now you know what it said. | |
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| But you're not aware of how the computation actually happened. | |
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| Your consciousness is like the CEO | |
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| that got an email at the end with the final answer. | |
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| So what is it that makes a difference? | |
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| I think that's both a great science mystery. | |
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| We're actually studying it a little bit in my lab here | |
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| at MIT, but I also think it's just a really urgent question | |
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| to answer. | |
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| For starters, I mean, if you're an emergency room doctor | |
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| and you have an unresponsive patient coming in, | |
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| wouldn't it be great if in addition to having | |
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| a CT scanner, you had a consciousness scanner | |
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| that could figure out whether this person | |
| 12:27.920 --> 12:30.960 | |
| is actually having locked in syndrome | |
| 12:30.960 --> 12:32.440 | |
| or is actually comatose. | |
| 12:33.360 --> 12:37.000 | |
| And in the future, imagine if we build robots | |
| 12:37.000 --> 12:41.480 | |
| or the machine that we can have really good conversations | |
| 12:41.480 --> 12:44.840 | |
| with, which I think is very likely to happen. | |
| 12:44.840 --> 12:47.760 | |
| Wouldn't you want to know if your home helper robot | |
| 12:47.760 --> 12:51.320 | |
| is actually experiencing anything or just like a zombie, | |
| 12:51.320 --> 12:53.520 | |
| I mean, would you prefer it? | |
| 12:53.520 --> 12:54.360 | |
| What would you prefer? | |
| 12:54.360 --> 12:56.200 | |
| Would you prefer that it's actually unconscious | |
| 12:56.200 --> 12:58.560 | |
| so that you don't have to feel guilty about switching it off | |
| 12:58.560 --> 13:02.120 | |
| or giving boring chores or what would you prefer? | |
| 13:02.120 --> 13:06.520 | |
| Well, certainly we would prefer, | |
| 13:06.520 --> 13:08.960 | |
| I would prefer the appearance of consciousness. | |
| 13:08.960 --> 13:11.720 | |
| But the question is whether the appearance of consciousness | |
| 13:11.720 --> 13:15.040 | |
| is different than consciousness itself. | |
| 13:15.040 --> 13:18.200 | |
| And sort of to ask that as a question, | |
| 13:18.200 --> 13:21.760 | |
| do you think we need to understand what consciousness is, | |
| 13:21.760 --> 13:23.520 | |
| solve the hard problem of consciousness | |
| 13:23.520 --> 13:28.240 | |
| in order to build something like an AGI system? | |
| 13:28.240 --> 13:30.440 | |
| No, I don't think that. | |
| 13:30.440 --> 13:34.520 | |
| And I think we will probably be able to build things | |
| 13:34.520 --> 13:36.080 | |
| even if we don't answer that question. | |
| 13:36.080 --> 13:37.720 | |
| But if we want to make sure that what happens | |
| 13:37.720 --> 13:40.960 | |
| is a good thing, we better solve it first. | |
| 13:40.960 --> 13:44.960 | |
| So it's a wonderful controversy you're raising there | |
| 13:44.960 --> 13:47.960 | |
| where you have basically three points of view | |
| 13:47.960 --> 13:48.800 | |
| about the hard problem. | |
| 13:48.800 --> 13:52.800 | |
| So there are two different points of view. | |
| 13:52.800 --> 13:55.160 | |
| They both conclude that the hard problem of consciousness | |
| 13:55.160 --> 13:56.840 | |
| is BS. | |
| 13:56.840 --> 13:59.320 | |
| On one hand, you have some people like Daniel Dennett | |
| 13:59.320 --> 14:01.480 | |
| who say that consciousness is just BS | |
| 14:01.480 --> 14:05.000 | |
| because consciousness is the same thing as intelligence. | |
| 14:05.000 --> 14:06.440 | |
| There's no difference. | |
| 14:06.440 --> 14:11.080 | |
| So anything which acts conscious is conscious, | |
| 14:11.080 --> 14:13.480 | |
| just like we are. | |
| 14:13.480 --> 14:15.960 | |
| And then there are also a lot of people, | |
| 14:15.960 --> 14:18.400 | |
| including many top AI researchers I know, | |
| 14:18.400 --> 14:19.920 | |
| who say, oh, consciousness is just bullshit | |
| 14:19.920 --> 14:22.760 | |
| because, of course, machines can never be conscious. | |
| 14:22.760 --> 14:24.520 | |
| They're always going to be zombies. | |
| 14:24.520 --> 14:27.880 | |
| You never have to feel guilty about how you treat them. | |
| 14:27.880 --> 14:30.880 | |
| And then there's a third group of people, | |
| 14:30.880 --> 14:34.920 | |
| including Giulio Tononi, for example, | |
| 14:34.920 --> 14:37.440 | |
| and Krzysztof Koch and a number of others. | |
| 14:37.440 --> 14:39.520 | |
| I would put myself also in this middle camp | |
| 14:39.520 --> 14:41.880 | |
| who say that actually some information processing | |
| 14:41.880 --> 14:44.160 | |
| is conscious and some is not. | |
| 14:44.160 --> 14:46.960 | |
| So let's find the equation which can be used | |
| 14:46.960 --> 14:49.080 | |
| to determine which it is. | |
| 14:49.080 --> 14:52.040 | |
| And I think we've just been a little bit lazy, | |
| 14:52.040 --> 14:54.960 | |
| kind of running away from this problem for a long time. | |
| 14:54.960 --> 14:57.840 | |
| It's been almost taboo to even mention the C word | |
| 14:57.840 --> 15:00.520 | |
| in a lot of circles because, | |
| 15:00.520 --> 15:03.520 | |
| but we should stop making excuses. | |
| 15:03.520 --> 15:07.920 | |
| This is a science question and there are ways | |
| 15:07.920 --> 15:11.960 | |
| we can even test any theory that makes predictions for this. | |
| 15:11.960 --> 15:13.640 | |
| And coming back to this helper robot, | |
| 15:13.640 --> 15:16.080 | |
| I mean, so you said you'd want your helper robot | |
| 15:16.080 --> 15:18.160 | |
| to certainly act conscious and treat you, | |
| 15:18.160 --> 15:20.880 | |
| like have conversations with you and stuff. | |
| 15:20.880 --> 15:21.720 | |
| I think so. | |
| 15:21.720 --> 15:22.560 | |
| But wouldn't you, would you feel, | |
| 15:22.560 --> 15:23.920 | |
| would you feel a little bit creeped out | |
| 15:23.920 --> 15:27.680 | |
| if you realized that it was just a glossed up tape recorder, | |
| 15:27.680 --> 15:31.560 | |
| you know, that was just zombie and was a faking emotion? | |
| 15:31.560 --> 15:34.560 | |
| Would you prefer that it actually had an experience | |
| 15:34.560 --> 15:37.000 | |
| or would you prefer that it's actually | |
| 15:37.000 --> 15:39.120 | |
| not experiencing anything so you feel, | |
| 15:39.120 --> 15:42.200 | |
| you don't have to feel guilty about what you do to it? | |
| 15:42.200 --> 15:45.040 | |
| It's such a difficult question because, you know, | |
| 15:45.040 --> 15:47.280 | |
| it's like when you're in a relationship and you say, | |
| 15:47.280 --> 15:48.120 | |
| well, I love you. | |
| 15:48.120 --> 15:49.760 | |
| And the other person said, I love you back. | |
| 15:49.760 --> 15:52.640 | |
| It's like asking, well, do they really love you back | |
| 15:52.640 --> 15:55.360 | |
| or are they just saying they love you back? | |
| 15:55.360 --> 15:58.120 | |
| Don't you really want them to actually love you? | |
| 15:58.120 --> 16:03.120 | |
| It's hard to, it's hard to really know the difference | |
| 16:03.520 --> 16:08.520 | |
| between everything seeming like there's consciousness | |
| 16:09.000 --> 16:10.640 | |
| present, there's intelligence present, | |
| 16:10.640 --> 16:13.840 | |
| there's affection, passion, love, | |
| 16:13.840 --> 16:16.200 | |
| and it actually being there. | |
| 16:16.200 --> 16:17.720 | |
| I'm not sure, do you have? | |
| 16:17.720 --> 16:19.400 | |
| But like, can I ask you a question about this? | |
| 16:19.400 --> 16:20.760 | |
| Like to make it a bit more pointed. | |
| 16:20.760 --> 16:22.920 | |
| So Mass General Hospital is right across the river, right? | |
| 16:22.920 --> 16:23.760 | |
| Yes. | |
| 16:23.760 --> 16:26.720 | |
| Suppose you're going in for a medical procedure | |
| 16:26.720 --> 16:29.320 | |
| and they're like, you know, for anesthesia, | |
| 16:29.320 --> 16:31.000 | |
| what we're going to do is we're going to give you | |
| 16:31.000 --> 16:33.160 | |
| muscle relaxants so you won't be able to move | |
| 16:33.160 --> 16:35.040 | |
| and you're going to feel excruciating pain | |
| 16:35.040 --> 16:35.880 | |
| during the whole surgery, | |
| 16:35.880 --> 16:37.600 | |
| but you won't be able to do anything about it. | |
| 16:37.600 --> 16:39.200 | |
| But then we're going to give you this drug | |
| 16:39.200 --> 16:40.760 | |
| that erases your memory of it. | |
| 16:41.960 --> 16:43.440 | |
| Would you be cool about that? | |
| 16:44.960 --> 16:47.600 | |
| What's the difference that you're conscious about it | |
| 16:48.600 --> 16:51.640 | |
| or not if there's no behavioral change, right? | |
| 16:51.640 --> 16:54.520 | |
| Right, that's a really, that's a really clear way to put it. | |
| 16:54.520 --> 16:57.400 | |
| That's, yeah, it feels like in that sense, | |
| 16:57.400 --> 17:01.080 | |
| experiencing it is a valuable quality. | |
| 17:01.080 --> 17:04.800 | |
| So actually being able to have subjective experiences, | |
| 17:05.840 --> 17:09.120 | |
| at least in that case, is valuable. | |
| 17:09.120 --> 17:11.240 | |
| And I think we humans have a little bit | |
| 17:11.240 --> 17:13.600 | |
| of a bad track record also of making | |
| 17:13.600 --> 17:15.480 | |
| these self serving arguments | |
| 17:15.480 --> 17:18.040 | |
| that other entities aren't conscious. | |
| 17:18.040 --> 17:19.160 | |
| You know, people often say, | |
| 17:19.160 --> 17:21.800 | |
| oh, these animals can't feel pain. | |
| 17:21.800 --> 17:24.040 | |
| It's okay to boil lobsters because we ask them | |
| 17:24.040 --> 17:25.960 | |
| if it hurt and they didn't say anything. | |
| 17:25.960 --> 17:27.400 | |
| And now there was just a paper out saying, | |
| 17:27.400 --> 17:29.320 | |
| lobsters do feel pain when you boil them | |
| 17:29.320 --> 17:31.040 | |
| and they're banning it in Switzerland. | |
| 17:31.040 --> 17:33.560 | |
| And we did this with slaves too often and said, | |
| 17:33.560 --> 17:34.680 | |
| oh, they don't mind. | |
| 17:36.240 --> 17:39.480 | |
| They don't maybe aren't conscious | |
| 17:39.480 --> 17:41.160 | |
| or women don't have souls or whatever. | |
| 17:41.160 --> 17:43.200 | |
| So I'm a little bit nervous when I hear people | |
| 17:43.200 --> 17:46.360 | |
| just take as an axiom that machines | |
| 17:46.360 --> 17:48.960 | |
| can't have experience ever. | |
| 17:48.960 --> 17:51.560 | |
| I think this is just a really fascinating science question | |
| 17:51.560 --> 17:52.400 | |
| is what it is. | |
| 17:52.400 --> 17:54.720 | |
| Let's research it and try to figure out | |
| 17:54.720 --> 17:56.000 | |
| what it is that makes the difference | |
| 17:56.000 --> 17:58.880 | |
| between unconscious intelligent behavior | |
| 17:58.880 --> 18:01.120 | |
| and conscious intelligent behavior. | |
| 18:01.120 --> 18:04.680 | |
| So in terms of, so if you think of a Boston Dynamics | |
| 18:04.680 --> 18:07.680 | |
| human or robot being sort of with a broom | |
| 18:07.680 --> 18:11.920 | |
| being pushed around, it starts pushing | |
| 18:11.920 --> 18:13.320 | |
| on a consciousness question. | |
| 18:13.320 --> 18:17.040 | |
| So let me ask, do you think an AGI system | |
| 18:17.040 --> 18:19.720 | |
| like a few neuroscientists believe | |
| 18:19.720 --> 18:22.320 | |
| needs to have a physical embodiment? | |
| 18:22.320 --> 18:25.720 | |
| Needs to have a body or something like a body? | |
| 18:25.720 --> 18:28.280 | |
| No, I don't think so. | |
| 18:28.280 --> 18:30.560 | |
| You mean to have a conscious experience? | |
| 18:30.560 --> 18:31.640 | |
| To have consciousness. | |
| 18:33.160 --> 18:36.080 | |
| I do think it helps a lot to have a physical embodiment | |
| 18:36.080 --> 18:38.440 | |
| to learn the kind of things about the world | |
| 18:38.440 --> 18:41.480 | |
| that are important to us humans, for sure. | |
| 18:42.560 --> 18:45.600 | |
| But I don't think the physical embodiment | |
| 18:45.600 --> 18:47.120 | |
| is necessary after you've learned it | |
| 18:47.120 --> 18:48.760 | |
| to just have the experience. | |
| 18:48.760 --> 18:51.400 | |
| Think about when you're dreaming, right? | |
| 18:51.400 --> 18:52.600 | |
| Your eyes are closed. | |
| 18:52.600 --> 18:54.240 | |
| You're not getting any sensory input. | |
| 18:54.240 --> 18:55.960 | |
| You're not behaving or moving in any way | |
| 18:55.960 --> 18:58.160 | |
| but there's still an experience there, right? | |
| 18:59.720 --> 19:01.400 | |
| And so clearly the experience that you have | |
| 19:01.400 --> 19:03.320 | |
| when you see something cool in your dreams | |
| 19:03.320 --> 19:04.800 | |
| isn't coming from your eyes. | |
| 19:04.800 --> 19:08.640 | |
| It's just the information processing itself in your brain | |
| 19:08.640 --> 19:10.920 | |
| which is that experience, right? | |
| 19:10.920 --> 19:13.640 | |
| But if I put it another way, I'll say | |
| 19:13.640 --> 19:15.120 | |
| because it comes from neuroscience | |
| 19:15.120 --> 19:18.280 | |
| is the reason you want to have a body and a physical | |
| 19:18.280 --> 19:23.280 | |
| something like a physical, you know, a physical system | |
| 19:23.920 --> 19:27.040 | |
| is because you want to be able to preserve something. | |
| 19:27.040 --> 19:30.840 | |
| In order to have a self, you could argue, | |
| 19:30.840 --> 19:35.840 | |
| would you need to have some kind of embodiment of self | |
| 19:36.400 --> 19:37.960 | |
| to want to preserve? | |
| 19:38.920 --> 19:42.400 | |
| Well, now we're getting a little bit anthropomorphic | |
| 19:42.400 --> 19:45.200 | |
| into anthropomorphizing things. | |
| 19:45.200 --> 19:47.280 | |
| Maybe talking about self preservation instincts. | |
| 19:47.280 --> 19:50.560 | |
| I mean, we are evolved organisms, right? | |
| 19:50.560 --> 19:53.520 | |
| So Darwinian evolution endowed us | |
| 19:53.520 --> 19:57.120 | |
| and other evolved organism with a self preservation instinct | |
| 19:57.120 --> 20:00.560 | |
| because those that didn't have those self preservation genes | |
| 20:00.560 --> 20:02.960 | |
| got cleaned out of the gene pool, right? | |
| 20:02.960 --> 20:06.880 | |
| But if you build an artificial general intelligence | |
| 20:06.880 --> 20:10.040 | |
| the mind space that you can design is much, much larger | |
| 20:10.040 --> 20:14.440 | |
| than just a specific subset of minds that can evolve. | |
| 20:14.440 --> 20:17.280 | |
| So an AGI mind doesn't necessarily have | |
| 20:17.280 --> 20:19.880 | |
| to have any self preservation instinct. | |
| 20:19.880 --> 20:21.600 | |
| It also doesn't necessarily have to be | |
| 20:21.600 --> 20:24.040 | |
| so individualistic as us. | |
| 20:24.040 --> 20:26.080 | |
| Like, imagine if you could just, first of all, | |
| 20:26.080 --> 20:27.960 | |
| or we are also very afraid of death. | |
| 20:27.960 --> 20:29.920 | |
| You know, I suppose you could back yourself up | |
| 20:29.920 --> 20:32.000 | |
| every five minutes and then your airplane | |
| 20:32.000 --> 20:32.840 | |
| is about to crash. | |
| 20:32.840 --> 20:36.680 | |
| You're like, shucks, I'm gonna lose the last five minutes | |
| 20:36.680 --> 20:39.520 | |
| of experiences since my last cloud backup, dang. | |
| 20:39.520 --> 20:41.520 | |
| You know, it's not as big a deal. | |
| 20:41.520 --> 20:45.680 | |
| Or if we could just copy experiences between our minds | |
| 20:45.680 --> 20:47.640 | |
| easily like we, which we could easily do | |
| 20:47.640 --> 20:50.360 | |
| if we were silicon based, right? | |
| 20:50.360 --> 20:54.040 | |
| Then maybe we would feel a little bit more | |
| 20:54.040 --> 20:56.560 | |
| like a hive mind actually, that maybe it's the, | |
| 20:56.560 --> 20:59.960 | |
| so I don't think we should take for granted at all | |
| 20:59.960 --> 21:03.000 | |
| that AGI will have to have any of those sort of | |
| 21:04.880 --> 21:07.360 | |
| competitive as alpha male instincts. | |
| 21:07.360 --> 21:10.160 | |
| On the other hand, you know, this is really interesting | |
| 21:10.160 --> 21:13.840 | |
| because I think some people go too far and say, | |
| 21:13.840 --> 21:16.680 | |
| of course we don't have to have any concerns either | |
| 21:16.680 --> 21:20.800 | |
| that advanced AI will have those instincts | |
| 21:20.800 --> 21:22.680 | |
| because we can build anything we want. | |
| 21:22.680 --> 21:26.280 | |
| That there's a very nice set of arguments going back | |
| 21:26.280 --> 21:28.560 | |
| to Steve Omohundro and Nick Bostrom and others | |
| 21:28.560 --> 21:32.280 | |
| just pointing out that when we build machines, | |
| 21:32.280 --> 21:34.680 | |
| we normally build them with some kind of goal, you know, | |
| 21:34.680 --> 21:38.520 | |
| win this chess game, drive this car safely or whatever. | |
| 21:38.520 --> 21:40.960 | |
| And as soon as you put in a goal into machine, | |
| 21:40.960 --> 21:42.760 | |
| especially if it's kind of open ended goal | |
| 21:42.760 --> 21:44.640 | |
| and the machine is very intelligent, | |
| 21:44.640 --> 21:47.000 | |
| it'll break that down into a bunch of sub goals. | |
| 21:48.280 --> 21:51.280 | |
| And one of those goals will almost always | |
| 21:51.280 --> 21:54.200 | |
| be self preservation because if it breaks or dies | |
| 21:54.200 --> 21:56.120 | |
| in the process, it's not gonna accomplish the goal, right? | |
| 21:56.120 --> 21:58.040 | |
| Like suppose you just build a little, | |
| 21:58.040 --> 22:01.000 | |
| you have a little robot and you tell it to go down | |
| 22:01.000 --> 22:04.040 | |
| the store market here and get you some food, | |
| 22:04.040 --> 22:06.200 | |
| make you cook an Italian dinner, you know, | |
| 22:06.200 --> 22:08.400 | |
| and then someone mugs it and tries to break it | |
| 22:08.400 --> 22:09.480 | |
| on the way. | |
| 22:09.480 --> 22:12.920 | |
| That robot has an incentive to not get destroyed | |
| 22:12.920 --> 22:14.720 | |
| and defend itself or run away, | |
| 22:14.720 --> 22:17.720 | |
| because otherwise it's gonna fail in cooking your dinner. | |
| 22:17.720 --> 22:19.560 | |
| It's not afraid of death, | |
| 22:19.560 --> 22:22.960 | |
| but it really wants to complete the dinner cooking goal. | |
| 22:22.960 --> 22:25.040 | |
| So it will have a self preservation instinct. | |
| 22:25.040 --> 22:27.920 | |
| Continue being a functional agent somehow. | |
| 22:27.920 --> 22:32.920 | |
| And similarly, if you give any kind of more ambitious goal | |
| 22:33.720 --> 22:37.000 | |
| to an AGI, it's very likely they wanna acquire | |
| 22:37.000 --> 22:39.840 | |
| more resources so it can do that better. | |
| 22:39.840 --> 22:42.720 | |
| And it's exactly from those sort of sub goals | |
| 22:42.720 --> 22:43.800 | |
| that we might not have intended | |
| 22:43.800 --> 22:47.160 | |
| that some of the concerns about AGI safety come. | |
| 22:47.160 --> 22:50.600 | |
| You give it some goal that seems completely harmless. | |
| 22:50.600 --> 22:53.360 | |
| And then before you realize it, | |
| 22:53.360 --> 22:55.480 | |
| it's also trying to do these other things | |
| 22:55.480 --> 22:56.920 | |
| which you didn't want it to do. | |
| 22:56.920 --> 22:59.160 | |
| And it's maybe smarter than us. | |
| 22:59.160 --> 23:01.000 | |
| So it's fascinating. | |
| 23:01.000 --> 23:05.680 | |
| And let me pause just because I am in a very kind | |
| 23:05.680 --> 23:08.720 | |
| of human centric way, see fear of death | |
| 23:08.720 --> 23:11.840 | |
| as a valuable motivator. | |
| 23:11.840 --> 23:16.440 | |
| So you don't think, you think that's an artifact | |
| 23:16.440 --> 23:19.120 | |
| of evolution, so that's the kind of mind space | |
| 23:19.120 --> 23:22.120 | |
| evolution created that we're sort of almost obsessed | |
| 23:22.120 --> 23:24.400 | |
| about self preservation, some kind of genetic flow. | |
| 23:24.400 --> 23:29.400 | |
| You don't think that's necessary to be afraid of death. | |
| 23:29.480 --> 23:32.920 | |
| So not just a kind of sub goal of self preservation | |
| 23:32.920 --> 23:34.920 | |
| just so you can keep doing the thing, | |
| 23:34.920 --> 23:38.720 | |
| but more fundamentally sort of have the finite thing | |
| 23:38.720 --> 23:43.080 | |
| like this ends for you at some point. | |
| 23:43.080 --> 23:44.160 | |
| Interesting. | |
| 23:44.160 --> 23:47.440 | |
| Do I think it's necessary for what precisely? | |
| 23:47.440 --> 23:50.920 | |
| For intelligence, but also for consciousness. | |
| 23:50.920 --> 23:55.040 | |
| So for those, for both, do you think really | |
| 23:55.040 --> 23:59.120 | |
| like a finite death and the fear of it is important? | |
| 23:59.120 --> 24:04.120 | |
| So before I can answer, before we can agree | |
| 24:05.160 --> 24:06.960 | |
| on whether it's necessary for intelligence | |
| 24:06.960 --> 24:08.360 | |
| or for consciousness, we should be clear | |
| 24:08.360 --> 24:09.800 | |
| on how we define those two words. | |
| 24:09.800 --> 24:11.960 | |
| Cause a lot of really smart people define them | |
| 24:11.960 --> 24:13.320 | |
| in very different ways. | |
| 24:13.320 --> 24:17.080 | |
| I was on this panel with AI experts | |
| 24:17.080 --> 24:20.080 | |
| and they couldn't agree on how to define intelligence even. | |
| 24:20.080 --> 24:22.000 | |
| So I define intelligence simply | |
| 24:22.000 --> 24:24.760 | |
| as the ability to accomplish complex goals. | |
| 24:25.640 --> 24:27.280 | |
| I like your broad definition, because again | |
| 24:27.280 --> 24:29.040 | |
| I don't want to be a carbon chauvinist. | |
| 24:29.040 --> 24:30.400 | |
| Right. | |
| 24:30.400 --> 24:34.600 | |
| And in that case, no, certainly | |
| 24:34.600 --> 24:36.480 | |
| it doesn't require fear of death. | |
| 24:36.480 --> 24:40.120 | |
| I would say alpha go, alpha zero is quite intelligent. | |
| 24:40.120 --> 24:43.080 | |
| I don't think alpha zero has any fear of being turned off | |
| 24:43.080 --> 24:46.320 | |
| because it doesn't understand the concept of it even. | |
| 24:46.320 --> 24:48.440 | |
| And similarly consciousness. | |
| 24:48.440 --> 24:52.240 | |
| I mean, you could certainly imagine very simple | |
| 24:52.240 --> 24:53.920 | |
| kind of experience. | |
| 24:53.920 --> 24:57.200 | |
| If certain plants have any kind of experience | |
| 24:57.200 --> 24:58.560 | |
| I don't think they're very afraid of dying | |
| 24:58.560 --> 25:00.920 | |
| or there's nothing they can do about it anyway much. | |
| 25:00.920 --> 25:04.560 | |
| So there wasn't that much value in, but more seriously | |
| 25:04.560 --> 25:09.200 | |
| I think if you ask, not just about being conscious | |
| 25:09.200 --> 25:14.200 | |
| but maybe having what you would, we might call | |
| 25:14.320 --> 25:16.400 | |
| an exciting life where you feel passion | |
| 25:16.400 --> 25:21.400 | |
| and really appreciate the things. | |
| 25:21.480 --> 25:24.440 | |
| Maybe there somehow, maybe there perhaps it does help | |
| 25:24.440 --> 25:27.880 | |
| having a backdrop that, Hey, it's finite. | |
| 25:27.880 --> 25:31.200 | |
| No, let's make the most of this, let's live to the fullest. | |
| 25:31.200 --> 25:33.800 | |
| So if you knew you were going to live forever | |
| 25:34.880 --> 25:37.400 | |
| do you think you would change your? | |
| 25:37.400 --> 25:39.560 | |
| Yeah, I mean, in some perspective | |
| 25:39.560 --> 25:43.960 | |
| it would be an incredibly boring life living forever. | |
| 25:43.960 --> 25:47.360 | |
| So in the sort of loose subjective terms that you said | |
| 25:47.360 --> 25:50.480 | |
| of something exciting and something in this | |
| 25:50.480 --> 25:53.240 | |
| that other humans would understand, I think is, yeah | |
| 25:53.240 --> 25:57.120 | |
| it seems that the finiteness of it is important. | |
| 25:57.120 --> 25:59.560 | |
| Well, the good news I have for you then is | |
| 25:59.560 --> 26:02.120 | |
| based on what we understand about cosmology | |
| 26:02.120 --> 26:05.120 | |
| everything is in our universe is probably | |
| 26:05.120 --> 26:07.960 | |
| ultimately probably finite, although. | |
| 26:07.960 --> 26:11.560 | |
| Big crunch or big, what's the, the infinite expansion. | |
| 26:11.560 --> 26:13.840 | |
| Yeah, we could have a big chill or a big crunch | |
| 26:13.840 --> 26:18.440 | |
| or a big rip or that's the big snap or death bubbles. | |
| 26:18.440 --> 26:20.040 | |
| All of them are more than a billion years away. | |
| 26:20.040 --> 26:24.600 | |
| So we should, we certainly have vastly more time | |
| 26:24.600 --> 26:27.920 | |
| than our ancestors thought, but there is still | |
| 26:29.160 --> 26:32.360 | |
| it's still pretty hard to squeeze in an infinite number | |
| 26:32.360 --> 26:36.560 | |
| of compute cycles, even though there are some loopholes | |
| 26:36.560 --> 26:37.720 | |
| that just might be possible. | |
| 26:37.720 --> 26:41.960 | |
| But I think, you know, some people like to say | |
| 26:41.960 --> 26:44.760 | |
| that you should live as if you're about to | |
| 26:44.760 --> 26:46.720 | |
| you're going to die in five years or so. | |
| 26:46.720 --> 26:47.960 | |
| And that's sort of optimal. | |
| 26:47.960 --> 26:50.560 | |
| Maybe it's a good assumption. | |
| 26:50.560 --> 26:54.680 | |
| We should build our civilization as if it's all finite | |
| 26:54.680 --> 26:55.680 | |
| to be on the safe side. | |
| 26:55.680 --> 26:56.960 | |
| Right, exactly. | |
| 26:56.960 --> 26:59.720 | |
| So you mentioned defining intelligence | |
| 26:59.720 --> 27:02.960 | |
| as the ability to solve complex goals. | |
| 27:02.960 --> 27:05.440 | |
| Where would you draw a line or how would you try | |
| 27:05.440 --> 27:08.200 | |
| to define human level intelligence | |
| 27:08.200 --> 27:10.680 | |
| and superhuman level intelligence? | |
| 27:10.680 --> 27:13.280 | |
| Where is consciousness part of that definition? | |
| 27:13.280 --> 27:16.640 | |
| No, consciousness does not come into this definition. | |
| 27:16.640 --> 27:20.280 | |
| So, so I think of intelligence as it's a spectrum | |
| 27:20.280 --> 27:21.960 | |
| but there are very many different kinds of goals | |
| 27:21.960 --> 27:22.800 | |
| you can have. | |
| 27:22.800 --> 27:24.000 | |
| You can have a goal to be a good chess player | |
| 27:24.000 --> 27:28.520 | |
| a good goal player, a good car driver, a good investor | |
| 27:28.520 --> 27:31.160 | |
| good poet, et cetera. | |
| 27:31.160 --> 27:34.320 | |
| So intelligence that by its very nature | |
| 27:34.320 --> 27:36.680 | |
| isn't something you can measure by this one number | |
| 27:36.680 --> 27:37.960 | |
| or some overall goodness. | |
| 27:37.960 --> 27:38.800 | |
| No, no. | |
| 27:38.800 --> 27:40.320 | |
| There are some people who are more better at this. | |
| 27:40.320 --> 27:42.360 | |
| Some people are better than that. | |
| 27:42.360 --> 27:45.440 | |
| Right now we have machines that are much better than us | |
| 27:45.440 --> 27:49.040 | |
| at some very narrow tasks like multiplying large numbers | |
| 27:49.040 --> 27:53.200 | |
| fast, memorizing large databases, playing chess | |
| 27:53.200 --> 27:56.280 | |
| playing go and soon driving cars. | |
| 27:57.480 --> 28:00.080 | |
| But there's still no machine that can match | |
| 28:00.080 --> 28:02.720 | |
| a human child in general intelligence | |
| 28:02.720 --> 28:05.720 | |
| but artificial general intelligence, AGI | |
| 28:05.720 --> 28:07.880 | |
| the name of your course, of course | |
| 28:07.880 --> 28:12.880 | |
| that is by its very definition, the quest | |
| 28:13.400 --> 28:16.000 | |
| to build a machine that can do everything | |
| 28:16.000 --> 28:17.800 | |
| as well as we can. | |
| 28:17.800 --> 28:21.960 | |
| So the old Holy grail of AI from back to its inception | |
| 28:21.960 --> 28:25.560 | |
| in the sixties, if that ever happens, of course | |
| 28:25.560 --> 28:27.320 | |
| I think it's going to be the biggest transition | |
| 28:27.320 --> 28:29.040 | |
| in the history of life on earth | |
| 28:29.040 --> 28:33.200 | |
| but it doesn't necessarily have to wait the big impact | |
| 28:33.200 --> 28:35.400 | |
| until machines are better than us at knitting | |
| 28:35.400 --> 28:39.160 | |
| that the really big change doesn't come exactly | |
| 28:39.160 --> 28:41.800 | |
| at the moment they're better than us at everything. | |
| 28:41.800 --> 28:44.120 | |
| The really big change comes first | |
| 28:44.120 --> 28:45.840 | |
| there are big changes when they start becoming better | |
| 28:45.840 --> 28:48.800 | |
| at us at doing most of the jobs that we do | |
| 28:48.800 --> 28:51.160 | |
| because that takes away much of the demand | |
| 28:51.160 --> 28:53.200 | |
| for human labor. | |
| 28:53.200 --> 28:55.640 | |
| And then the really whopping change comes | |
| 28:55.640 --> 29:00.640 | |
| when they become better than us at AI research, right? | |
| 29:01.040 --> 29:03.760 | |
| Because right now the timescale of AI research | |
| 29:03.760 --> 29:08.400 | |
| is limited by the human research and development cycle | |
| 29:08.400 --> 29:10.160 | |
| of years typically, you know | |
| 29:10.160 --> 29:13.480 | |
| how long does it take from one release of some software | |
| 29:13.480 --> 29:15.720 | |
| or iPhone or whatever to the next? | |
| 29:15.720 --> 29:20.720 | |
| But once Google can replace 40,000 engineers | |
| 29:20.920 --> 29:25.920 | |
| by 40,000 equivalent pieces of software or whatever | |
| 29:26.400 --> 29:29.680 | |
| but then there's no reason that has to be years | |
| 29:29.680 --> 29:31.840 | |
| it can be in principle much faster | |
| 29:31.840 --> 29:36.040 | |
| and the timescale of future progress in AI | |
| 29:36.040 --> 29:39.320 | |
| and all of science and technology will be driven | |
| 29:39.320 --> 29:40.960 | |
| by machines, not humans. | |
| 29:40.960 --> 29:45.960 | |
| So it's this simple point which gives right | |
| 29:46.520 --> 29:48.720 | |
| this incredibly fun controversy | |
| 29:48.720 --> 29:51.880 | |
| about whether there can be intelligence explosion | |
| 29:51.880 --> 29:54.400 | |
| so called singularity as Werner Vinge called it. | |
| 29:54.400 --> 29:57.040 | |
| Now the idea is articulated by I.J. Good | |
| 29:57.040 --> 29:59.480 | |
| is obviously way back fifties | |
| 29:59.480 --> 30:01.040 | |
| but you can see Alan Turing | |
| 30:01.040 --> 30:03.640 | |
| and others thought about it even earlier. | |
| 30:06.920 --> 30:10.080 | |
| So you asked me what exactly would I define | |
| 30:10.080 --> 30:12.800 | |
| human level intelligence, yeah. | |
| 30:12.800 --> 30:15.680 | |
| So the glib answer is to say something | |
| 30:15.680 --> 30:18.520 | |
| which is better than us at all cognitive tasks | |
| 30:18.520 --> 30:21.800 | |
| with a better than any human at all cognitive tasks | |
| 30:21.800 --> 30:23.080 | |
| but the really interesting bar | |
| 30:23.080 --> 30:25.760 | |
| I think goes a little bit lower than that actually. | |
| 30:25.760 --> 30:27.920 | |
| It's when they can, when they're better than us | |
| 30:27.920 --> 30:31.760 | |
| at AI programming and general learning | |
| 30:31.760 --> 30:35.360 | |
| so that they can if they want to get better | |
| 30:35.360 --> 30:37.240 | |
| than us at anything by just studying. | |
| 30:37.240 --> 30:40.560 | |
| So they're better is a key word and better is towards | |
| 30:40.560 --> 30:44.120 | |
| this kind of spectrum of the complexity of goals | |
| 30:44.120 --> 30:45.680 | |
| it's able to accomplish. | |
| 30:45.680 --> 30:50.360 | |
| So another way to, and that's certainly | |
| 30:50.360 --> 30:53.040 | |
| a very clear definition of human love. | |
| 30:53.040 --> 30:55.240 | |
| So there's, it's almost like a sea that's rising | |
| 30:55.240 --> 30:56.800 | |
| you can do more and more and more things | |
| 30:56.800 --> 30:58.640 | |
| it's a geographic that you show | |
| 30:58.640 --> 30:59.880 | |
| it's really nice way to put it. | |
| 30:59.880 --> 31:01.560 | |
| So there's some peaks that | |
| 31:01.560 --> 31:03.280 | |
| and there's an ocean level elevating | |
| 31:03.280 --> 31:04.800 | |
| and you solve more and more problems | |
| 31:04.800 --> 31:07.720 | |
| but just kind of to take a pause | |
| 31:07.720 --> 31:09.000 | |
| and we took a bunch of questions | |
| 31:09.000 --> 31:10.240 | |
| and a lot of social networks | |
| 31:10.240 --> 31:11.720 | |
| and a bunch of people asked | |
| 31:11.720 --> 31:14.480 | |
| a sort of a slightly different direction | |
| 31:14.480 --> 31:19.480 | |
| on creativity and things that perhaps aren't a peak. | |
| 31:23.560 --> 31:24.720 | |
| Human beings are flawed | |
| 31:24.720 --> 31:28.720 | |
| and perhaps better means having contradiction | |
| 31:28.720 --> 31:30.200 | |
| being flawed in some way. | |
| 31:30.200 --> 31:34.960 | |
| So let me sort of start easy, first of all. | |
| 31:34.960 --> 31:36.600 | |
| So you have a lot of cool equations. | |
| 31:36.600 --> 31:39.760 | |
| Let me ask, what's your favorite equation, first of all? | |
| 31:39.760 --> 31:42.760 | |
| I know they're all like your children, but like | |
| 31:42.760 --> 31:43.680 | |
| which one is that? | |
| 31:43.680 --> 31:45.560 | |
| This is the shirt in your equation. | |
| 31:45.560 --> 31:48.640 | |
| It's the master key of quantum mechanics | |
| 31:48.640 --> 31:49.880 | |
| of the micro world. | |
| 31:49.880 --> 31:52.800 | |
| So this equation will protect everything | |
| 31:52.800 --> 31:55.840 | |
| to do with atoms, molecules and all the way up. | |
| 31:55.840 --> 31:58.560 | |
| Right? | |
| 31:58.560 --> 31:59.760 | |
| Yeah, so, okay. | |
| 31:59.760 --> 32:02.080 | |
| So quantum mechanics is certainly a beautiful | |
| 32:02.080 --> 32:05.160 | |
| mysterious formulation of our world. | |
| 32:05.160 --> 32:08.760 | |
| So I'd like to sort of ask you, just as an example | |
| 32:08.760 --> 32:12.160 | |
| it perhaps doesn't have the same beauty as physics does | |
| 32:12.160 --> 32:16.960 | |
| but in mathematics abstract, the Andrew Wiles | |
| 32:16.960 --> 32:19.360 | |
| who proved the Fermat's last theorem. | |
| 32:19.360 --> 32:22.040 | |
| So he just saw this recently | |
| 32:22.040 --> 32:24.160 | |
| and it kind of caught my eye a little bit. | |
| 32:24.160 --> 32:27.960 | |
| This is 358 years after it was conjectured. | |
| 32:27.960 --> 32:29.960 | |
| So this is very simple formulation. | |
| 32:29.960 --> 32:32.640 | |
| Everybody tried to prove it, everybody failed. | |
| 32:32.640 --> 32:34.800 | |
| And so here's this guy comes along | |
| 32:34.800 --> 32:38.640 | |
| and eventually proves it and then fails to prove it | |
| 32:38.640 --> 32:41.320 | |
| and then proves it again in 94. | |
| 32:41.320 --> 32:43.480 | |
| And he said like the moment when everything connected | |
| 32:43.480 --> 32:46.040 | |
| into place in an interview said | |
| 32:46.040 --> 32:47.880 | |
| it was so indescribably beautiful. | |
| 32:47.880 --> 32:51.040 | |
| That moment when you finally realize the connecting piece | |
| 32:51.040 --> 32:52.800 | |
| of two conjectures. | |
| 32:52.800 --> 32:55.280 | |
| He said, it was so indescribably beautiful. | |
| 32:55.280 --> 32:57.040 | |
| It was so simple and so elegant. | |
| 32:57.040 --> 32:58.760 | |
| I couldn't understand how I'd missed it. | |
| 32:58.760 --> 33:02.080 | |
| And I just stared at it in disbelief for 20 minutes. | |
| 33:02.080 --> 33:05.240 | |
| Then during the day, I walked around the department | |
| 33:05.240 --> 33:07.880 | |
| and I keep coming back to my desk | |
| 33:07.880 --> 33:09.840 | |
| looking to see if it was still there. | |
| 33:09.840 --> 33:10.680 | |
| It was still there. | |
| 33:10.680 --> 33:11.760 | |
| I couldn't contain myself. | |
| 33:11.760 --> 33:12.880 | |
| I was so excited. | |
| 33:12.880 --> 33:15.880 | |
| It was the most important moment on my working life. | |
| 33:15.880 --> 33:18.960 | |
| Nothing I ever do again will mean as much. | |
| 33:18.960 --> 33:20.800 | |
| So that particular moment. | |
| 33:20.800 --> 33:24.640 | |
| And it kind of made me think of what would it take? | |
| 33:24.640 --> 33:27.960 | |
| And I think we have all been there at small levels. | |
| 33:29.480 --> 33:32.240 | |
| Maybe let me ask, have you had a moment like that | |
| 33:32.240 --> 33:34.880 | |
| in your life where you just had an idea? | |
| 33:34.880 --> 33:37.040 | |
| It's like, wow, yes. | |
| 33:40.000 --> 33:42.480 | |
| I wouldn't mention myself in the same breath | |
| 33:42.480 --> 33:44.760 | |
| as Andrew Wiles, but I've certainly had a number | |
| 33:44.760 --> 33:52.200 | |
| of aha moments when I realized something very cool | |
| 33:52.200 --> 33:56.000 | |
| about physics, which has completely made my head explode. | |
| 33:56.000 --> 33:58.320 | |
| In fact, some of my favorite discoveries I made later, | |
| 33:58.320 --> 34:01.080 | |
| I later realized that they had been discovered earlier | |
| 34:01.080 --> 34:03.240 | |
| by someone who sometimes got quite famous for it. | |
| 34:03.240 --> 34:05.480 | |
| So it's too late for me to even publish it, | |
| 34:05.480 --> 34:07.440 | |
| but that doesn't diminish in any way. | |
| 34:07.440 --> 34:09.760 | |
| The emotional experience you have when you realize it, | |
| 34:09.760 --> 34:11.320 | |
| like, wow. | |
| 34:11.320 --> 34:15.520 | |
| Yeah, so what would it take in that moment, that wow, | |
| 34:15.520 --> 34:17.320 | |
| that was yours in that moment? | |
| 34:17.320 --> 34:21.440 | |
| So what do you think it takes for an intelligence system, | |
| 34:21.440 --> 34:24.520 | |
| an AGI system, an AI system to have a moment like that? | |
| 34:25.640 --> 34:26.760 | |
| That's a tricky question | |
| 34:26.760 --> 34:29.200 | |
| because there are actually two parts to it, right? | |
| 34:29.200 --> 34:33.920 | |
| One of them is, can it accomplish that proof? | |
| 34:33.920 --> 34:37.640 | |
| Can it prove that you can never write A to the N | |
| 34:37.640 --> 34:42.760 | |
| plus B to the N equals three to that equal Z to the N | |
| 34:42.760 --> 34:45.320 | |
| for all integers, et cetera, et cetera, | |
| 34:45.320 --> 34:48.720 | |
| when N is bigger than two? | |
| 34:48.720 --> 34:51.360 | |
| That's simply a question about intelligence. | |
| 34:51.360 --> 34:54.120 | |
| Can you build machines that are that intelligent? | |
| 34:54.120 --> 34:57.280 | |
| And I think by the time we get a machine | |
| 34:57.280 --> 35:00.840 | |
| that can independently come up with that level of proofs, | |
| 35:00.840 --> 35:03.360 | |
| probably quite close to AGI. | |
| 35:03.360 --> 35:07.240 | |
| The second question is a question about consciousness. | |
| 35:07.240 --> 35:11.760 | |
| When will we, how likely is it that such a machine | |
| 35:11.760 --> 35:14.240 | |
| will actually have any experience at all, | |
| 35:14.240 --> 35:16.160 | |
| as opposed to just being like a zombie? | |
| 35:16.160 --> 35:20.560 | |
| And would we expect it to have some sort of emotional response | |
| 35:20.560 --> 35:24.640 | |
| to this or anything at all akin to human emotion | |
| 35:24.640 --> 35:28.320 | |
| where when it accomplishes its machine goal, | |
| 35:28.320 --> 35:31.920 | |
| it views it as somehow something very positive | |
| 35:31.920 --> 35:39.160 | |
| and sublime and deeply meaningful? | |
| 35:39.160 --> 35:41.440 | |
| I would certainly hope that if in the future | |
| 35:41.440 --> 35:45.120 | |
| we do create machines that are our peers | |
| 35:45.120 --> 35:50.160 | |
| or even our descendants, that I would certainly | |
| 35:50.160 --> 35:55.480 | |
| hope that they do have this sublime appreciation of life. | |
| 35:55.480 --> 35:58.840 | |
| In a way, my absolutely worst nightmare | |
| 35:58.840 --> 36:05.760 | |
| would be that at some point in the future, | |
| 36:05.760 --> 36:07.400 | |
| the distant future, maybe our cosmos | |
| 36:07.400 --> 36:10.600 | |
| is teeming with all this post biological life doing | |
| 36:10.600 --> 36:12.880 | |
| all the seemingly cool stuff. | |
| 36:12.880 --> 36:16.480 | |
| And maybe the last humans, by the time | |
| 36:16.480 --> 36:20.120 | |
| our species eventually fizzles out, | |
| 36:20.120 --> 36:21.920 | |
| will be like, well, that's OK because we're | |
| 36:21.920 --> 36:23.600 | |
| so proud of our descendants here. | |
| 36:23.600 --> 36:26.680 | |
| And look what all the, my worst nightmare | |
| 36:26.680 --> 36:30.360 | |
| is that we haven't solved the consciousness problem. | |
| 36:30.360 --> 36:32.880 | |
| And we haven't realized that these are all the zombies. | |
| 36:32.880 --> 36:36.200 | |
| They're not aware of anything any more than a tape recorder | |
| 36:36.200 --> 36:37.840 | |
| has any kind of experience. | |
| 36:37.840 --> 36:40.040 | |
| So the whole thing has just become | |
| 36:40.040 --> 36:41.520 | |
| a play for empty benches. | |
| 36:41.520 --> 36:44.640 | |
| That would be the ultimate zombie apocalypse. | |
| 36:44.640 --> 36:47.200 | |
| So I would much rather, in that case, | |
| 36:47.200 --> 36:52.240 | |
| that we have these beings which can really | |
| 36:52.240 --> 36:57.000 | |
| appreciate how amazing it is. | |
| 36:57.000 --> 37:01.080 | |
| And in that picture, what would be the role of creativity? | |
| 37:01.080 --> 37:04.960 | |
| A few people ask about creativity. | |
| 37:04.960 --> 37:07.080 | |
| When you think about intelligence, | |
| 37:07.080 --> 37:09.840 | |
| certainly the story you told at the beginning of your book | |
| 37:09.840 --> 37:15.200 | |
| involved creating movies and so on, making money. | |
| 37:15.200 --> 37:17.240 | |
| You can make a lot of money in our modern world | |
| 37:17.240 --> 37:18.600 | |
| with music and movies. | |
| 37:18.600 --> 37:20.880 | |
| So if you are an intelligent system, | |
| 37:20.880 --> 37:22.960 | |
| you may want to get good at that. | |
| 37:22.960 --> 37:26.280 | |
| But that's not necessarily what I mean by creativity. | |
| 37:26.280 --> 37:29.640 | |
| Is it important on that complex goals | |
| 37:29.640 --> 37:31.600 | |
| where the sea is rising for there | |
| 37:31.600 --> 37:33.800 | |
| to be something creative? | |
| 37:33.800 --> 37:37.400 | |
| Or am I being very human centric and thinking creativity | |
| 37:37.400 --> 37:41.880 | |
| somehow special relative to intelligence? | |
| 37:41.880 --> 37:47.240 | |
| My hunch is that we should think of creativity simply | |
| 37:47.240 --> 37:50.760 | |
| as an aspect of intelligence. | |
| 37:50.760 --> 37:57.840 | |
| And we have to be very careful with human vanity. | |
| 37:57.840 --> 37:59.520 | |
| We have this tendency to very often want | |
| 37:59.520 --> 38:01.560 | |
| to say, as soon as machines can do something, | |
| 38:01.560 --> 38:03.560 | |
| we try to diminish it and say, oh, but that's | |
| 38:03.560 --> 38:05.920 | |
| not real intelligence. | |
| 38:05.920 --> 38:08.400 | |
| Isn't it creative or this or that? | |
| 38:08.400 --> 38:12.200 | |
| The other thing, if we ask ourselves | |
| 38:12.200 --> 38:14.320 | |
| to write down a definition of what we actually mean | |
| 38:14.320 --> 38:18.840 | |
| by being creative, what we mean by Andrew Wiles, what he did | |
| 38:18.840 --> 38:21.880 | |
| there, for example, don't we often mean that someone takes | |
| 38:21.880 --> 38:26.000 | |
| a very unexpected leap? | |
| 38:26.000 --> 38:29.680 | |
| It's not like taking 573 and multiplying it | |
| 38:29.680 --> 38:33.840 | |
| by 224 by just a step of straightforward cookbook | |
| 38:33.840 --> 38:36.520 | |
| like rules, right? | |
| 38:36.520 --> 38:39.680 | |
| You can maybe make a connection between two things | |
| 38:39.680 --> 38:42.640 | |
| that people had never thought was connected or something | |
| 38:42.640 --> 38:44.480 | |
| like that. | |
| 38:44.480 --> 38:47.720 | |
| I think this is an aspect of intelligence. | |
| 38:47.720 --> 38:53.000 | |
| And this is actually one of the most important aspects of it. | |
| 38:53.000 --> 38:55.520 | |
| Maybe the reason we humans tend to be better at it | |
| 38:55.520 --> 38:57.840 | |
| than traditional computers is because it's | |
| 38:57.840 --> 38:59.640 | |
| something that comes more naturally if you're | |
| 38:59.640 --> 39:04.120 | |
| a neural network than if you're a traditional logic gate | |
| 39:04.120 --> 39:05.720 | |
| based computer machine. | |
| 39:05.720 --> 39:08.640 | |
| We physically have all these connections. | |
| 39:08.640 --> 39:13.800 | |
| And you activate here, activate here, activate here. | |
| 39:13.800 --> 39:16.560 | |
| Bing. | |
| 39:16.560 --> 39:21.040 | |
| My hunch is that if we ever build a machine where you could | |
| 39:21.040 --> 39:29.200 | |
| just give it the task, hey, you say, hey, I just realized | |
| 39:29.200 --> 39:32.320 | |
| I want to travel around the world instead this month. | |
| 39:32.320 --> 39:34.600 | |
| Can you teach my AGI course for me? | |
| 39:34.600 --> 39:35.960 | |
| And it's like, OK, I'll do it. | |
| 39:35.960 --> 39:37.920 | |
| And it does everything that you would have done | |
| 39:37.920 --> 39:39.760 | |
| and improvises and stuff. | |
| 39:39.760 --> 39:43.360 | |
| That would, in my mind, involve a lot of creativity. | |
| 39:43.360 --> 39:45.680 | |
| Yeah, so it's actually a beautiful way to put it. | |
| 39:45.680 --> 39:52.640 | |
| I think we do try to grasp at the definition of intelligence | |
| 39:52.640 --> 39:56.360 | |
| is everything we don't understand how to build. | |
| 39:56.360 --> 39:59.360 | |
| So we as humans try to find things | |
| 39:59.360 --> 40:01.240 | |
| that we have and machines don't have. | |
| 40:01.240 --> 40:03.800 | |
| And maybe creativity is just one of the things, one | |
| 40:03.800 --> 40:05.480 | |
| of the words we use to describe that. | |
| 40:05.480 --> 40:07.200 | |
| That's a really interesting way to put it. | |
| 40:07.200 --> 40:09.520 | |
| I don't think we need to be that defensive. | |
| 40:09.520 --> 40:11.560 | |
| I don't think anything good comes out of saying, | |
| 40:11.560 --> 40:18.080 | |
| well, we're somehow special, you know? | |
| 40:18.080 --> 40:21.040 | |
| Contrary wise, there are many examples in history | |
| 40:21.040 --> 40:27.840 | |
| of where trying to pretend that we're somehow superior | |
| 40:27.840 --> 40:33.120 | |
| to all other intelligent beings has led to pretty bad results, | |
| 40:33.120 --> 40:35.960 | |
| right? | |
| 40:35.960 --> 40:38.440 | |
| Nazi Germany, they said that they were somehow superior | |
| 40:38.440 --> 40:40.080 | |
| to other people. | |
| 40:40.080 --> 40:42.440 | |
| Today, we still do a lot of cruelty to animals | |
| 40:42.440 --> 40:44.440 | |
| by saying that we're so superior somehow, | |
| 40:44.440 --> 40:46.440 | |
| and they can't feel pain. | |
| 40:46.440 --> 40:48.480 | |
| Slavery was justified by the same kind | |
| 40:48.480 --> 40:52.200 | |
| of just really weak arguments. | |
| 40:52.200 --> 40:57.120 | |
| And I don't think if we actually go ahead and build | |
| 40:57.120 --> 40:59.440 | |
| artificial general intelligence, it | |
| 40:59.440 --> 41:01.360 | |
| can do things better than us, I don't | |
| 41:01.360 --> 41:04.080 | |
| think we should try to found our self worth on some sort | |
| 41:04.080 --> 41:09.760 | |
| of bogus claims of superiority in terms | |
| 41:09.760 --> 41:12.120 | |
| of our intelligence. | |
| 41:12.120 --> 41:18.080 | |
| I think we should instead find our calling | |
| 41:18.080 --> 41:23.360 | |
| and the meaning of life from the experiences that we have. | |
| 41:23.360 --> 41:28.720 | |
| I can have very meaningful experiences | |
| 41:28.720 --> 41:32.920 | |
| even if there are other people who are smarter than me. | |
| 41:32.920 --> 41:34.400 | |
| When I go to a faculty meeting here, | |
| 41:34.400 --> 41:36.520 | |
| and we talk about something, and then I certainly realize, | |
| 41:36.520 --> 41:39.080 | |
| oh, boy, he has an old prize, he has an old prize, | |
| 41:39.080 --> 41:40.800 | |
| he has an old prize, I don't have one. | |
| 41:40.800 --> 41:43.760 | |
| Does that make me enjoy life any less | |
| 41:43.760 --> 41:47.560 | |
| or enjoy talking to those people less? | |
| 41:47.560 --> 41:49.560 | |
| Of course not. | |
| 41:49.560 --> 41:54.160 | |
| And the contrary, I feel very honored and privileged | |
| 41:54.160 --> 41:58.760 | |
| to get to interact with other very intelligent beings that | |
| 41:58.760 --> 42:00.680 | |
| are better than me at a lot of stuff. | |
| 42:00.680 --> 42:02.840 | |
| So I don't think there's any reason why | |
| 42:02.840 --> 42:06.080 | |
| we can't have the same approach with intelligent machines. | |
| 42:06.080 --> 42:07.320 | |
| That's a really interesting. | |
| 42:07.320 --> 42:08.920 | |
| So people don't often think about that. | |
| 42:08.920 --> 42:10.600 | |
| They think about when there's going, | |
| 42:10.600 --> 42:13.320 | |
| if there's machines that are more intelligent, | |
| 42:13.320 --> 42:15.080 | |
| you naturally think that that's not | |
| 42:15.080 --> 42:19.080 | |
| going to be a beneficial type of intelligence. | |
| 42:19.080 --> 42:23.000 | |
| You don't realize it could be like peers with Nobel prizes | |
| 42:23.000 --> 42:25.120 | |
| that would be just fun to talk with, | |
| 42:25.120 --> 42:27.560 | |
| and they might be clever about certain topics, | |
| 42:27.560 --> 42:32.240 | |
| and you can have fun having a few drinks with them. | |
| 42:32.240 --> 42:35.880 | |
| Well, also, another example we can all | |
| 42:35.880 --> 42:39.320 | |
| relate to of why it doesn't have to be a terrible thing | |
| 42:39.320 --> 42:42.560 | |
| to be in the presence of people who are even smarter than us | |
| 42:42.560 --> 42:45.600 | |
| all around is when you and I were both two years old, | |
| 42:45.600 --> 42:48.360 | |
| I mean, our parents were much more intelligent than us, | |
| 42:48.360 --> 42:49.040 | |
| right? | |
| 42:49.040 --> 42:51.960 | |
| Worked out OK, because their goals | |
| 42:51.960 --> 42:53.960 | |
| were aligned with our goals. | |
| 42:53.960 --> 42:58.680 | |
| And that, I think, is really the number one key issue | |
| 42:58.680 --> 43:02.280 | |
| we have to solve if we value align the value alignment | |
| 43:02.280 --> 43:03.080 | |
| problem, exactly. | |
| 43:03.080 --> 43:06.520 | |
| Because people who see too many Hollywood movies | |
| 43:06.520 --> 43:10.000 | |
| with lousy science fiction plot lines, | |
| 43:10.000 --> 43:12.200 | |
| they worry about the wrong thing, right? | |
| 43:12.200 --> 43:16.320 | |
| They worry about some machine suddenly turning evil. | |
| 43:16.320 --> 43:21.480 | |
| It's not malice that is the concern. | |
| 43:21.480 --> 43:22.880 | |
| It's competence. | |
| 43:22.880 --> 43:27.440 | |
| By definition, intelligent makes you very competent. | |
| 43:27.440 --> 43:31.920 | |
| If you have a more intelligent goal playing, | |
| 43:31.920 --> 43:33.680 | |
| computer playing is a less intelligent one. | |
| 43:33.680 --> 43:36.120 | |
| And when we define intelligence as the ability | |
| 43:36.120 --> 43:38.600 | |
| to accomplish goal winning, it's going | |
| 43:38.600 --> 43:40.560 | |
| to be the more intelligent one that wins. | |
| 43:40.560 --> 43:43.560 | |
| And if you have a human and then you | |
| 43:43.560 --> 43:47.720 | |
| have an AGI that's more intelligent in all ways | |
| 43:47.720 --> 43:49.520 | |
| and they have different goals, guess who's | |
| 43:49.520 --> 43:50.720 | |
| going to get their way, right? | |
| 43:50.720 --> 43:57.120 | |
| So I was just reading about this particular rhinoceros species | |
| 43:57.120 --> 43:59.200 | |
| that was driven extinct just a few years ago. | |
| 43:59.200 --> 44:02.280 | |
| Ellen Bummer is looking at this cute picture of a mommy | |
| 44:02.280 --> 44:05.080 | |
| rhinoceros with its child. | |
| 44:05.080 --> 44:09.320 | |
| And why did we humans drive it to extinction? | |
| 44:09.320 --> 44:12.800 | |
| It wasn't because we were evil rhino haters as a whole. | |
| 44:12.800 --> 44:14.920 | |
| It was just because our goals weren't aligned | |
| 44:14.920 --> 44:16.000 | |
| with those of the rhinoceros. | |
| 44:16.000 --> 44:17.680 | |
| And it didn't work out so well for the rhinoceros | |
| 44:17.680 --> 44:19.560 | |
| because we were more intelligent, right? | |
| 44:19.560 --> 44:21.240 | |
| So I think it's just so important | |
| 44:21.240 --> 44:27.120 | |
| that if we ever do build AGI, before we unleash anything, | |
| 44:27.120 --> 44:31.840 | |
| we have to make sure that it learns | |
| 44:31.840 --> 44:36.000 | |
| to understand our goals, that it adopts our goals, | |
| 44:36.000 --> 44:37.920 | |
| and that it retains those goals. | |
| 44:37.920 --> 44:40.520 | |
| So the cool, interesting problem there | |
| 44:40.520 --> 44:47.040 | |
| is us as human beings trying to formulate our values. | |
| 44:47.040 --> 44:51.360 | |
| So you could think of the United States Constitution as a way | |
| 44:51.360 --> 44:56.680 | |
| that people sat down, at the time a bunch of white men, | |
| 44:56.680 --> 44:59.680 | |
| which is a good example, I should say. | |
| 44:59.680 --> 45:01.480 | |
| They formulated the goals for this country. | |
| 45:01.480 --> 45:03.760 | |
| And a lot of people agree that those goals actually | |
| 45:03.760 --> 45:05.360 | |
| held up pretty well. | |
| 45:05.360 --> 45:07.160 | |
| That's an interesting formulation of values | |
| 45:07.160 --> 45:09.440 | |
| and failed miserably in other ways. | |
| 45:09.440 --> 45:13.320 | |
| So for the value alignment problem and the solution to it, | |
| 45:13.320 --> 45:19.560 | |
| we have to be able to put on paper or in a program | |
| 45:19.560 --> 45:20.400 | |
| human values. | |
| 45:20.400 --> 45:22.400 | |
| How difficult do you think that is? | |
| 45:22.400 --> 45:24.040 | |
| Very. | |
| 45:24.040 --> 45:25.880 | |
| But it's so important. | |
| 45:25.880 --> 45:28.000 | |
| We really have to give it our best. | |
| 45:28.000 --> 45:30.120 | |
| And it's difficult for two separate reasons. | |
| 45:30.120 --> 45:33.440 | |
| There's the technical value alignment problem | |
| 45:33.440 --> 45:39.120 | |
| of figuring out just how to make machines understand our goals, | |
| 45:39.120 --> 45:40.440 | |
| adopt them, and retain them. | |
| 45:40.440 --> 45:43.200 | |
| And then there's the separate part of it, | |
| 45:43.200 --> 45:44.200 | |
| the philosophical part. | |
| 45:44.200 --> 45:45.920 | |
| Whose values anyway? | |
| 45:45.920 --> 45:48.320 | |
| And since it's not like we have any great consensus | |
| 45:48.320 --> 45:52.040 | |
| on this planet on values, what mechanism should we | |
| 45:52.040 --> 45:54.120 | |
| create then to aggregate and decide, OK, | |
| 45:54.120 --> 45:56.520 | |
| what's a good compromise? | |
| 45:56.520 --> 45:58.440 | |
| That second discussion can't just | |
| 45:58.440 --> 46:01.560 | |
| be left to tech nerds like myself. | |
| 46:01.560 --> 46:05.720 | |
| And if we refuse to talk about it and then AGI gets built, | |
| 46:05.720 --> 46:07.160 | |
| who's going to be actually making | |
| 46:07.160 --> 46:08.480 | |
| the decision about whose values? | |
| 46:08.480 --> 46:12.080 | |
| It's going to be a bunch of dudes in some tech company. | |
| 46:12.080 --> 46:17.240 | |
| And are they necessarily so representative of all | |
| 46:17.240 --> 46:19.400 | |
| of humankind that we want to just entrust it to them? | |
| 46:19.400 --> 46:23.000 | |
| Are they even uniquely qualified to speak | |
| 46:23.000 --> 46:25.240 | |
| to future human happiness just because they're | |
| 46:25.240 --> 46:26.480 | |
| good at programming AI? | |
| 46:26.480 --> 46:30.200 | |
| I'd much rather have this be a really inclusive conversation. | |
| 46:30.200 --> 46:32.560 | |
| But do you think it's possible? | |
| 46:32.560 --> 46:37.560 | |
| So you create a beautiful vision that includes the diversity, | |
| 46:37.560 --> 46:40.960 | |
| cultural diversity, and various perspectives on discussing | |
| 46:40.960 --> 46:43.600 | |
| rights, freedoms, human dignity. | |
| 46:43.600 --> 46:46.520 | |
| But how hard is it to come to that consensus? | |
| 46:46.520 --> 46:50.400 | |
| Do you think it's certainly a really important thing | |
| 46:50.400 --> 46:51.880 | |
| that we should all try to do? | |
| 46:51.880 --> 46:54.240 | |
| But do you think it's feasible? | |
| 46:54.240 --> 47:00.160 | |
| I think there's no better way to guarantee failure than to | |
| 47:00.160 --> 47:02.840 | |
| refuse to talk about it or refuse to try. | |
| 47:02.840 --> 47:05.320 | |
| And I also think it's a really bad strategy | |
| 47:05.320 --> 47:08.560 | |
| to say, OK, let's first have a discussion for a long time. | |
| 47:08.560 --> 47:11.040 | |
| And then once we reach complete consensus, | |
| 47:11.040 --> 47:13.360 | |
| then we'll try to load it into some machine. | |
| 47:13.360 --> 47:16.560 | |
| No, we shouldn't let perfect be the enemy of good. | |
| 47:16.560 --> 47:20.600 | |
| Instead, we should start with the kindergarten ethics | |
| 47:20.600 --> 47:22.120 | |
| that pretty much everybody agrees on | |
| 47:22.120 --> 47:24.360 | |
| and put that into machines now. | |
| 47:24.360 --> 47:25.880 | |
| We're not doing that even. | |
| 47:25.880 --> 47:31.000 | |
| Look at anyone who builds this passenger aircraft, | |
| 47:31.000 --> 47:33.000 | |
| wants it to never under any circumstances | |
| 47:33.000 --> 47:35.600 | |
| fly into a building or a mountain. | |
| 47:35.600 --> 47:38.480 | |
| Yet the September 11 hijackers were able to do that. | |
| 47:38.480 --> 47:41.800 | |
| And even more embarrassingly, Andreas Lubitz, | |
| 47:41.800 --> 47:43.960 | |
| this depressed Germanwings pilot, | |
| 47:43.960 --> 47:47.360 | |
| when he flew his passenger jet into the Alps killing over 100 | |
| 47:47.360 --> 47:50.640 | |
| people, he just told the autopilot to do it. | |
| 47:50.640 --> 47:53.200 | |
| He told the freaking computer to change the altitude | |
| 47:53.200 --> 47:55.040 | |
| to 100 meters. | |
| 47:55.040 --> 47:58.160 | |
| And even though it had the GPS maps, everything, | |
| 47:58.160 --> 48:00.640 | |
| the computer was like, OK. | |
| 48:00.640 --> 48:05.320 | |
| So we should take those very basic values, | |
| 48:05.320 --> 48:08.400 | |
| where the problem is not that we don't agree. | |
| 48:08.400 --> 48:10.120 | |
| The problem is just we've been too lazy | |
| 48:10.120 --> 48:11.480 | |
| to try to put it into our machines | |
| 48:11.480 --> 48:15.520 | |
| and make sure that from now on, airplanes will just, | |
| 48:15.520 --> 48:16.920 | |
| which all have computers in them, | |
| 48:16.920 --> 48:19.720 | |
| but will just refuse to do something like that. | |
| 48:19.720 --> 48:22.160 | |
| Go into safe mode, maybe lock the cockpit door, | |
| 48:22.160 --> 48:24.480 | |
| go over to the nearest airport. | |
| 48:24.480 --> 48:28.080 | |
| And there's so much other technology in our world | |
| 48:28.080 --> 48:31.320 | |
| as well now, where it's really becoming quite timely | |
| 48:31.320 --> 48:34.120 | |
| to put in some sort of very basic values like this. | |
| 48:34.120 --> 48:39.240 | |
| Even in cars, we've had enough vehicle terrorism attacks | |
| 48:39.240 --> 48:42.040 | |
| by now, where people have driven trucks and vans | |
| 48:42.040 --> 48:45.480 | |
| into pedestrians, that it's not at all a crazy idea | |
| 48:45.480 --> 48:48.680 | |
| to just have that hardwired into the car. | |
| 48:48.680 --> 48:50.280 | |
| Because yeah, there are a lot of, | |
| 48:50.280 --> 48:52.240 | |
| there's always going to be people who for some reason | |
| 48:52.240 --> 48:54.800 | |
| want to harm others, but most of those people | |
| 48:54.800 --> 48:56.760 | |
| don't have the technical expertise to figure out | |
| 48:56.760 --> 48:58.520 | |
| how to work around something like that. | |
| 48:58.520 --> 49:01.760 | |
| So if the car just won't do it, it helps. | |
| 49:01.760 --> 49:02.840 | |
| So let's start there. | |
| 49:02.840 --> 49:04.960 | |
| So there's a lot of, that's a great point. | |
| 49:04.960 --> 49:06.800 | |
| So not chasing perfect. | |
| 49:06.800 --> 49:10.840 | |
| There's a lot of things that most of the world agrees on. | |
| 49:10.840 --> 49:11.840 | |
| Yeah, let's start there. | |
| 49:11.840 --> 49:12.680 | |
| Let's start there. | |
| 49:12.680 --> 49:14.560 | |
| And then once we start there, | |
| 49:14.560 --> 49:17.240 | |
| we'll also get into the habit of having | |
| 49:17.240 --> 49:18.520 | |
| these kind of conversations about, okay, | |
| 49:18.520 --> 49:21.760 | |
| what else should we put in here and have these discussions? | |
| 49:21.760 --> 49:23.920 | |
| This should be a gradual process then. | |
| 49:23.920 --> 49:28.600 | |
| Great, so, but that also means describing these things | |
| 49:28.600 --> 49:31.240 | |
| and describing it to a machine. | |
| 49:31.240 --> 49:34.200 | |
| So one thing, we had a few conversations | |
| 49:34.200 --> 49:35.640 | |
| with Stephen Wolfram. | |
| 49:35.640 --> 49:37.080 | |
| I'm not sure if you're familiar with Stephen. | |
| 49:37.080 --> 49:38.360 | |
| Oh yeah, I know him quite well. | |
| 49:38.360 --> 49:42.040 | |
| So he is, he works with a bunch of things, | |
| 49:42.040 --> 49:46.560 | |
| but cellular automata, these simple computable things, | |
| 49:46.560 --> 49:47.960 | |
| these computation systems. | |
| 49:47.960 --> 49:49.880 | |
| And he kind of mentioned that, | |
| 49:49.880 --> 49:52.480 | |
| we probably have already within these systems | |
| 49:52.480 --> 49:54.680 | |
| already something that's AGI, | |
| 49:56.120 --> 49:58.720 | |
| meaning like we just don't know it | |
| 49:58.720 --> 50:00.400 | |
| because we can't talk to it. | |
| 50:00.400 --> 50:04.800 | |
| So if you give me this chance to try to at least | |
| 50:04.800 --> 50:06.720 | |
| form a question out of this is, | |
| 50:07.600 --> 50:10.880 | |
| I think it's an interesting idea to think | |
| 50:10.880 --> 50:12.680 | |
| that we can have intelligent systems, | |
| 50:12.680 --> 50:15.600 | |
| but we don't know how to describe something to them | |
| 50:15.600 --> 50:17.360 | |
| and they can't communicate with us. | |
| 50:17.360 --> 50:19.840 | |
| I know you're doing a little bit of work in explainable AI, | |
| 50:19.840 --> 50:22.040 | |
| trying to get AI to explain itself. | |
| 50:22.040 --> 50:25.520 | |
| So what are your thoughts of natural language processing | |
| 50:25.520 --> 50:27.640 | |
| or some kind of other communication? | |
| 50:27.640 --> 50:30.120 | |
| How does the AI explain something to us? | |
| 50:30.120 --> 50:33.640 | |
| How do we explain something to it, to machines? | |
| 50:33.640 --> 50:35.320 | |
| Or you think of it differently? | |
| 50:35.320 --> 50:39.960 | |
| So there are two separate parts to your question there. | |
| 50:39.960 --> 50:42.440 | |
| One of them has to do with communication, | |
| 50:42.440 --> 50:44.440 | |
| which is super interesting, I'll get to that in a sec. | |
| 50:44.440 --> 50:47.280 | |
| The other is whether we already have AGI | |
| 50:47.280 --> 50:49.240 | |
| but we just haven't noticed it there. | |
| 50:49.240 --> 50:50.080 | |
| Right. | |
| 50:51.800 --> 50:53.000 | |
| There I beg to differ. | |
| 50:54.280 --> 50:56.480 | |
| I don't think there's anything in any cellular automaton | |
| 50:56.480 --> 50:59.040 | |
| or anything or the internet itself or whatever | |
| 50:59.040 --> 51:03.560 | |
| that has artificial general intelligence | |
| 51:03.560 --> 51:05.520 | |
| and that it can really do exactly everything | |
| 51:05.520 --> 51:07.000 | |
| we humans can do better. | |
| 51:07.000 --> 51:11.600 | |
| I think the day that happens, when that happens, | |
| 51:11.600 --> 51:15.600 | |
| we will very soon notice, we'll probably notice even before | |
| 51:15.600 --> 51:17.440 | |
| because in a very, very big way. | |
| 51:17.440 --> 51:18.840 | |
| But for the second part, though. | |
| 51:18.840 --> 51:20.720 | |
| Wait, can I ask, sorry. | |
| 51:20.720 --> 51:24.400 | |
| So, because you have this beautiful way | |
| 51:24.400 --> 51:29.400 | |
| to formulating consciousness as information processing, | |
| 51:30.360 --> 51:31.360 | |
| and you can think of intelligence | |
| 51:31.360 --> 51:32.280 | |
| as information processing, | |
| 51:32.280 --> 51:34.320 | |
| and you can think of the entire universe | |
| 51:34.320 --> 51:38.720 | |
| as these particles and these systems roaming around | |
| 51:38.720 --> 51:41.360 | |
| that have this information processing power. | |
| 51:41.360 --> 51:44.840 | |
| You don't think there is something with the power | |
| 51:44.840 --> 51:49.040 | |
| to process information in the way that we human beings do | |
| 51:49.040 --> 51:54.040 | |
| that's out there that needs to be sort of connected to. | |
| 51:55.400 --> 51:57.880 | |
| It seems a little bit philosophical, perhaps, | |
| 51:57.880 --> 52:00.080 | |
| but there's something compelling to the idea | |
| 52:00.080 --> 52:01.920 | |
| that the power is already there, | |
| 52:01.920 --> 52:05.440 | |
| which the focus should be more on being able | |
| 52:05.440 --> 52:07.360 | |
| to communicate with it. | |
| 52:07.360 --> 52:11.960 | |
| Well, I agree that in a certain sense, | |
| 52:11.960 --> 52:15.360 | |
| the hardware processing power is already out there | |
| 52:15.360 --> 52:19.000 | |
| because our universe itself can think of it | |
| 52:19.000 --> 52:21.000 | |
| as being a computer already, right? | |
| 52:21.000 --> 52:23.800 | |
| It's constantly computing what water waves, | |
| 52:23.800 --> 52:26.120 | |
| how it devolved the water waves in the River Charles | |
| 52:26.120 --> 52:28.440 | |
| and how to move the air molecules around. | |
| 52:28.440 --> 52:30.480 | |
| Seth Lloyd has pointed out, my colleague here, | |
| 52:30.480 --> 52:32.920 | |
| that you can even in a very rigorous way | |
| 52:32.920 --> 52:35.480 | |
| think of our entire universe as being a quantum computer. | |
| 52:35.480 --> 52:37.680 | |
| It's pretty clear that our universe | |
| 52:37.680 --> 52:40.320 | |
| supports this amazing processing power | |
| 52:40.320 --> 52:42.160 | |
| because you can even, | |
| 52:42.160 --> 52:44.920 | |
| within this physics computer that we live in, right? | |
| 52:44.920 --> 52:47.040 | |
| We can even build actual laptops and stuff, | |
| 52:47.040 --> 52:49.000 | |
| so clearly the power is there. | |
| 52:49.000 --> 52:52.040 | |
| It's just that most of the compute power that nature has, | |
| 52:52.040 --> 52:54.240 | |
| it's, in my opinion, kind of wasting on boring stuff | |
| 52:54.240 --> 52:56.520 | |
| like simulating yet another ocean wave somewhere | |
| 52:56.520 --> 52:58.040 | |
| where no one is even looking, right? | |
| 52:58.040 --> 53:00.880 | |
| So in a sense, what life does, what we are doing | |
| 53:00.880 --> 53:03.880 | |
| when we build computers is we're rechanneling | |
| 53:03.880 --> 53:07.200 | |
| all this compute that nature is doing anyway | |
| 53:07.200 --> 53:09.360 | |
| into doing things that are more interesting | |
| 53:09.360 --> 53:11.440 | |
| than just yet another ocean wave, | |
| 53:11.440 --> 53:13.200 | |
| and let's do something cool here. | |
| 53:14.080 --> 53:17.080 | |
| So the raw hardware power is there, for sure, | |
| 53:17.080 --> 53:21.080 | |
| but then even just computing what's going to happen | |
| 53:21.080 --> 53:23.520 | |
| for the next five seconds in this water bottle, | |
| 53:23.520 --> 53:26.000 | |
| takes a ridiculous amount of compute | |
| 53:26.000 --> 53:27.920 | |
| if you do it on a human computer. | |
| 53:27.920 --> 53:29.920 | |
| This water bottle just did it. | |
| 53:29.920 --> 53:33.440 | |
| But that does not mean that this water bottle has AGI | |
| 53:34.760 --> 53:37.040 | |
| because AGI means it should also be able to, | |
| 53:37.040 --> 53:40.160 | |
| like I've written my book, done this interview. | |
| 53:40.160 --> 53:42.080 | |
| And I don't think it's just communication problems. | |
| 53:42.080 --> 53:46.760 | |
| I don't really think it can do it. | |
| 53:46.760 --> 53:49.280 | |
| Although Buddhists say when they watch the water | |
| 53:49.280 --> 53:51.240 | |
| and that there is some beauty, | |
| 53:51.240 --> 53:53.720 | |
| that there's some depth and beauty in nature | |
| 53:53.720 --> 53:54.840 | |
| that they can communicate with. | |
| 53:54.840 --> 53:56.480 | |
| Communication is also very important though | |
| 53:56.480 --> 54:01.200 | |
| because I mean, look, part of my job is being a teacher. | |
| 54:01.200 --> 54:06.200 | |
| And I know some very intelligent professors even | |
| 54:06.200 --> 54:09.800 | |
| who just have a bit of hard time communicating. | |
| 54:09.800 --> 54:12.640 | |
| They come up with all these brilliant ideas, | |
| 54:12.640 --> 54:14.520 | |
| but to communicate with somebody else, | |
| 54:14.520 --> 54:16.920 | |
| you have to also be able to simulate their own mind. | |
| 54:16.920 --> 54:18.360 | |
| Yes, empathy. | |
| 54:18.360 --> 54:20.640 | |
| Build well enough and understand model of their mind | |
| 54:20.640 --> 54:24.400 | |
| that you can say things that they will understand. | |
| 54:24.400 --> 54:26.480 | |
| And that's quite difficult. | |
| 54:26.480 --> 54:28.280 | |
| And that's why today it's so frustrating | |
| 54:28.280 --> 54:32.600 | |
| if you have a computer that makes some cancer diagnosis | |
| 54:32.600 --> 54:34.120 | |
| and you ask it, well, why are you saying | |
| 54:34.120 --> 54:36.120 | |
| I should have this surgery? | |
| 54:36.120 --> 54:37.960 | |
| And if it can only reply, | |
| 54:37.960 --> 54:40.800 | |
| I was trained on five terabytes of data | |
| 54:40.800 --> 54:45.080 | |
| and this is my diagnosis, boop, boop, beep, beep. | |
| 54:45.080 --> 54:49.120 | |
| It doesn't really instill a lot of confidence, right? | |
| 54:49.120 --> 54:51.120 | |
| So I think we have a lot of work to do | |
| 54:51.120 --> 54:54.320 | |
| on communication there. | |
| 54:54.320 --> 54:58.040 | |
| So what kind of, I think you're doing a little bit of work | |
| 54:58.040 --> 54:59.320 | |
| in explainable AI. | |
| 54:59.320 --> 55:01.320 | |
| What do you think are the most promising avenues? | |
| 55:01.320 --> 55:05.240 | |
| Is it mostly about sort of the Alexa problem | |
| 55:05.240 --> 55:07.200 | |
| of natural language processing of being able | |
| 55:07.200 --> 55:11.600 | |
| to actually use human interpretable methods | |
| 55:11.600 --> 55:13.160 | |
| of communication? | |
| 55:13.160 --> 55:16.000 | |
| So being able to talk to a system and it talk back to you, | |
| 55:16.000 --> 55:18.640 | |
| or is there some more fundamental problems to be solved? | |
| 55:18.640 --> 55:21.160 | |
| I think it's all of the above. | |
| 55:21.160 --> 55:23.520 | |
| The natural language processing is obviously important, | |
| 55:23.520 --> 55:27.600 | |
| but there are also more nerdy fundamental problems. | |
| 55:27.600 --> 55:31.640 | |
| Like if you take, you play chess? | |
| 55:31.640 --> 55:33.040 | |
| Of course, I'm Russian. | |
| 55:33.040 --> 55:33.880 | |
| I have to. | |
| 55:33.880 --> 55:34.720 | |
| You speak Russian? | |
| 55:34.720 --> 55:35.560 | |
| Yes, I speak Russian. | |
| 55:35.560 --> 55:38.040 | |
| Excellent, I didn't know. | |
| 55:38.040 --> 55:39.160 | |
| When did you learn Russian? | |
| 55:39.160 --> 55:41.800 | |
| I speak very bad Russian, I'm only an autodidact, | |
| 55:41.800 --> 55:44.560 | |
| but I bought a book, Teach Yourself Russian, | |
| 55:44.560 --> 55:47.720 | |
| read a lot, but it was very difficult. | |
| 55:47.720 --> 55:48.560 | |
| Wow. | |
| 55:48.560 --> 55:49.960 | |
| That's why I speak so bad. | |
| 55:49.960 --> 55:51.960 | |
| How many languages do you know? | |
| 55:51.960 --> 55:53.840 | |
| Wow, that's really impressive. | |
| 55:53.840 --> 55:56.320 | |
| I don't know, my wife has some calculation, | |
| 55:56.320 --> 55:58.400 | |
| but my point was, if you play chess, | |
| 55:58.400 --> 56:01.040 | |
| have you looked at the AlphaZero games? | |
| 56:01.040 --> 56:02.600 | |
| The actual games, no. | |
| 56:02.600 --> 56:05.000 | |
| Check it out, some of them are just mind blowing, | |
| 56:06.320 --> 56:07.720 | |
| really beautiful. | |
| 56:07.720 --> 56:12.400 | |
| And if you ask, how did it do that? | |
| 56:13.760 --> 56:16.520 | |
| You go talk to Demis Hassabis, | |
| 56:16.520 --> 56:18.240 | |
| I know others from DeepMind, | |
| 56:19.120 --> 56:20.600 | |
| all they'll ultimately be able to give you | |
| 56:20.600 --> 56:23.920 | |
| is big tables of numbers, matrices, | |
| 56:23.920 --> 56:25.720 | |
| that define the neural network. | |
| 56:25.720 --> 56:28.080 | |
| And you can stare at these tables of numbers | |
| 56:28.080 --> 56:29.600 | |
| till your face turn blue, | |
| 56:29.600 --> 56:32.520 | |
| and you're not gonna understand much | |
| 56:32.520 --> 56:34.520 | |
| about why it made that move. | |
| 56:34.520 --> 56:37.640 | |
| And even if you have natural language processing | |
| 56:37.640 --> 56:40.280 | |
| that can tell you in human language about, | |
| 56:40.280 --> 56:42.520 | |
| oh, five, seven, points, two, eight, | |
| 56:42.520 --> 56:43.560 | |
| still not gonna really help. | |
| 56:43.560 --> 56:47.480 | |
| So I think there's a whole spectrum of fun challenges | |
| 56:47.480 --> 56:50.520 | |
| that are involved in taking a computation | |
| 56:50.520 --> 56:52.240 | |
| that does intelligent things | |
| 56:52.240 --> 56:56.240 | |
| and transforming it into something equally good, | |
| 56:57.760 --> 57:01.840 | |
| equally intelligent, but that's more understandable. | |
| 57:01.840 --> 57:03.240 | |
| And I think that's really valuable | |
| 57:03.240 --> 57:07.440 | |
| because I think as we put machines in charge | |
| 57:07.440 --> 57:09.760 | |
| of ever more infrastructure in our world, | |
| 57:09.760 --> 57:12.680 | |
| the power grid, the trading on the stock market, | |
| 57:12.680 --> 57:14.320 | |
| weapon systems and so on, | |
| 57:14.320 --> 57:17.760 | |
| it's absolutely crucial that we can trust | |
| 57:17.760 --> 57:19.400 | |
| these AIs to do all we want. | |
| 57:19.400 --> 57:21.520 | |
| And trust really comes from understanding | |
| 57:22.520 --> 57:24.400 | |
| in a very fundamental way. | |
| 57:24.400 --> 57:27.560 | |
| And that's why I'm working on this, | |
| 57:27.560 --> 57:29.160 | |
| because I think the more, | |
| 57:29.160 --> 57:31.840 | |
| if we're gonna have some hope of ensuring | |
| 57:31.840 --> 57:33.520 | |
| that machines have adopted our goals | |
| 57:33.520 --> 57:35.800 | |
| and that they're gonna retain them, | |
| 57:35.800 --> 57:38.800 | |
| that kind of trust, I think, | |
| 57:38.800 --> 57:41.200 | |
| needs to be based on things you can actually understand, | |
| 57:41.200 --> 57:44.240 | |
| preferably even improve theorems on. | |
| 57:44.240 --> 57:46.080 | |
| Even with a self driving car, right? | |
| 57:47.040 --> 57:48.680 | |
| If someone just tells you it's been trained | |
| 57:48.680 --> 57:50.640 | |
| on tons of data and it never crashed, | |
| 57:50.640 --> 57:54.200 | |
| it's less reassuring than if someone actually has a proof. | |
| 57:54.200 --> 57:55.960 | |
| Maybe it's a computer verified proof, | |
| 57:55.960 --> 57:58.800 | |
| but still it says that under no circumstances | |
| 57:58.800 --> 58:02.320 | |
| is this car just gonna swerve into oncoming traffic. | |
| 58:02.320 --> 58:04.640 | |
| And that kind of information helps to build trust | |
| 58:04.640 --> 58:08.080 | |
| and helps build the alignment of goals, | |
| 58:09.400 --> 58:12.200 | |
| at least awareness that your goals, your values are aligned. | |
| 58:12.200 --> 58:13.840 | |
| And I think even in the very short term, | |
| 58:13.840 --> 58:16.360 | |
| if you look at how, you know, today, right? | |
| 58:16.360 --> 58:19.320 | |
| This absolutely pathetic state of cybersecurity | |
| 58:19.320 --> 58:21.720 | |
| that we have, where is it? | |
| 58:21.720 --> 58:25.960 | |
| Three billion Yahoo accounts we can't pack, | |
| 58:27.200 --> 58:31.720 | |
| almost every American's credit card and so on. | |
| 58:32.800 --> 58:34.120 | |
| Why is this happening? | |
| 58:34.120 --> 58:37.960 | |
| It's ultimately happening because we have software | |
| 58:37.960 --> 58:41.200 | |
| that nobody fully understood how it worked. | |
| 58:41.200 --> 58:44.800 | |
| That's why the bugs hadn't been found, right? | |
| 58:44.800 --> 58:47.480 | |
| And I think AI can be used very effectively | |
| 58:47.480 --> 58:49.640 | |
| for offense, for hacking, | |
| 58:49.640 --> 58:52.320 | |
| but it can also be used for defense. | |
| 58:52.320 --> 58:55.360 | |
| Hopefully automating verifiability | |
| 58:55.360 --> 59:00.360 | |
| and creating systems that are built in different ways | |
| 59:00.680 --> 59:02.920 | |
| so you can actually prove things about them. | |
| 59:02.920 --> 59:05.240 | |
| And it's important. | |
| 59:05.240 --> 59:07.680 | |
| So speaking of software that nobody understands | |
| 59:07.680 --> 59:10.640 | |
| how it works, of course, a bunch of people ask | |
| 59:10.640 --> 59:12.160 | |
| about your paper, about your thoughts | |
| 59:12.160 --> 59:14.680 | |
| of why does deep and cheap learning work so well? | |
| 59:14.680 --> 59:15.520 | |
| That's the paper. | |
| 59:15.520 --> 59:18.320 | |
| But what are your thoughts on deep learning? | |
| 59:18.320 --> 59:21.880 | |
| These kind of simplified models of our own brains | |
| 59:21.880 --> 59:26.440 | |
| have been able to do some successful perception work, | |
| 59:26.440 --> 59:29.560 | |
| pattern recognition work, and now with AlphaZero and so on, | |
| 59:29.560 --> 59:30.880 | |
| do some clever things. | |
| 59:30.880 --> 59:33.880 | |
| What are your thoughts about the promise limitations | |
| 59:33.880 --> 59:35.680 | |
| of this piece? | |
| 59:35.680 --> 59:40.680 | |
| Great, I think there are a number of very important insights, | |
| 59:43.080 --> 59:44.640 | |
| very important lessons we can always draw | |
| 59:44.640 --> 59:47.120 | |
| from these kinds of successes. | |
| 59:47.120 --> 59:48.960 | |
| One of them is when you look at the human brain, | |
| 59:48.960 --> 59:51.480 | |
| you see it's very complicated, 10th of 11 neurons, | |
| 59:51.480 --> 59:53.320 | |
| and there are all these different kinds of neurons | |
| 59:53.320 --> 59:55.040 | |
| and yada, yada, and there's been this long debate | |
| 59:55.040 --> 59:57.200 | |
| about whether the fact that we have dozens | |
| 59:57.200 --> 1:00:00.160 | |
| of different kinds is actually necessary for intelligence. | |
| 1:00:01.560 --> 1:00:03.360 | |
| We can now, I think, quite convincingly answer | |
| 1:00:03.360 --> 1:00:07.640 | |
| that question of no, it's enough to have just one kind. | |
| 1:00:07.640 --> 1:00:09.920 | |
| If you look under the hood of AlphaZero, | |
| 1:00:09.920 --> 1:00:11.080 | |
| there's only one kind of neuron | |
| 1:00:11.080 --> 1:00:15.000 | |
| and it's ridiculously simple mathematical thing. | |
| 1:00:15.000 --> 1:00:17.280 | |
| So it's just like in physics, | |
| 1:00:17.280 --> 1:00:20.320 | |
| it's not, if you have a gas with waves in it, | |
| 1:00:20.320 --> 1:00:23.240 | |
| it's not the detailed nature of the molecule that matter, | |
| 1:00:24.240 --> 1:00:26.040 | |
| it's the collective behavior somehow. | |
| 1:00:26.040 --> 1:00:30.720 | |
| Similarly, it's this higher level structure | |
| 1:00:30.720 --> 1:00:31.760 | |
| of the network that matters, | |
| 1:00:31.760 --> 1:00:34.080 | |
| not that you have 20 kinds of neurons. | |
| 1:00:34.080 --> 1:00:37.040 | |
| I think our brain is such a complicated mess | |
| 1:00:37.040 --> 1:00:41.720 | |
| because it wasn't evolved just to be intelligent, | |
| 1:00:41.720 --> 1:00:45.840 | |
| it was involved to also be self assembling | |
| 1:00:47.000 --> 1:00:48.760 | |
| and self repairing, right? | |
| 1:00:48.760 --> 1:00:51.920 | |
| And evolutionarily attainable. | |
| 1:00:51.920 --> 1:00:53.560 | |
| And so on and so on. | |
| 1:00:53.560 --> 1:00:54.720 | |
| So I think it's pretty, | |
| 1:00:54.720 --> 1:00:57.040 | |
| my hunch is that we're going to understand | |
| 1:00:57.040 --> 1:00:59.520 | |
| how to build AGI before we fully understand | |
| 1:00:59.520 --> 1:01:02.600 | |
| how our brains work, just like we understood | |
| 1:01:02.600 --> 1:01:05.560 | |
| how to build flying machines long before | |
| 1:01:05.560 --> 1:01:07.800 | |
| we were able to build a mechanical bird. | |
| 1:01:07.800 --> 1:01:08.640 | |
| Yeah, that's right. | |
| 1:01:08.640 --> 1:01:13.280 | |
| You've given the example exactly of mechanical birds | |
| 1:01:13.280 --> 1:01:15.680 | |
| and airplanes and airplanes do a pretty good job | |
| 1:01:15.680 --> 1:01:18.560 | |
| of flying without really mimicking bird flight. | |
| 1:01:18.560 --> 1:01:20.920 | |
| And even now after 100 years later, | |
| 1:01:20.920 --> 1:01:23.880 | |
| did you see the Ted talk with this German mechanical bird? | |
| 1:01:23.880 --> 1:01:25.040 | |
| I heard you mention it. | |
| 1:01:25.040 --> 1:01:26.520 | |
| Check it out, it's amazing. | |
| 1:01:26.520 --> 1:01:27.760 | |
| But even after that, right, | |
| 1:01:27.760 --> 1:01:29.360 | |
| we still don't fly in mechanical birds | |
| 1:01:29.360 --> 1:01:32.720 | |
| because it turned out the way we came up with was simpler | |
| 1:01:32.720 --> 1:01:33.840 | |
| and it's better for our purposes. | |
| 1:01:33.840 --> 1:01:35.280 | |
| And I think it might be the same there. | |
| 1:01:35.280 --> 1:01:36.280 | |
| That's one lesson. | |
| 1:01:37.520 --> 1:01:42.520 | |
| And another lesson, it's more what our paper was about. | |
| 1:01:42.640 --> 1:01:45.800 | |
| First, as a physicist thought it was fascinating | |
| 1:01:45.800 --> 1:01:48.240 | |
| how there's a very close mathematical relationship | |
| 1:01:48.240 --> 1:01:50.800 | |
| actually between our artificial neural networks | |
| 1:01:50.800 --> 1:01:54.560 | |
| and a lot of things that we've studied for in physics | |
| 1:01:54.560 --> 1:01:57.520 | |
| go by nerdy names like the renormalization group equation | |
| 1:01:57.520 --> 1:01:59.800 | |
| and Hamiltonians and yada, yada, yada. | |
| 1:01:59.800 --> 1:02:04.360 | |
| And when you look a little more closely at this, | |
| 1:02:05.720 --> 1:02:06.560 | |
| you have, | |
| 1:02:10.320 --> 1:02:12.360 | |
| at first I was like, well, there's something crazy here | |
| 1:02:12.360 --> 1:02:13.520 | |
| that doesn't make sense. | |
| 1:02:13.520 --> 1:02:18.520 | |
| Because we know that if you even want to build | |
| 1:02:19.200 --> 1:02:22.560 | |
| a super simple neural network to tell apart cat pictures | |
| 1:02:22.560 --> 1:02:23.400 | |
| and dog pictures, right, | |
| 1:02:23.400 --> 1:02:25.400 | |
| that you can do that very, very well now. | |
| 1:02:25.400 --> 1:02:27.520 | |
| But if you think about it a little bit, | |
| 1:02:27.520 --> 1:02:29.080 | |
| you convince yourself it must be impossible | |
| 1:02:29.080 --> 1:02:31.920 | |
| because if I have one megapixel, | |
| 1:02:31.920 --> 1:02:34.160 | |
| even if each pixel is just black or white, | |
| 1:02:34.160 --> 1:02:36.960 | |
| there's two to the power of 1 million possible images, | |
| 1:02:36.960 --> 1:02:38.960 | |
| which is way more than there are atoms in our universe, | |
| 1:02:38.960 --> 1:02:41.000 | |
| right, so in order to, | |
| 1:02:42.040 --> 1:02:43.200 | |
| and then for each one of those, | |
| 1:02:43.200 --> 1:02:44.640 | |
| I have to assign a number, | |
| 1:02:44.640 --> 1:02:47.080 | |
| which is the probability that it's a dog. | |
| 1:02:47.080 --> 1:02:49.440 | |
| So an arbitrary function of images | |
| 1:02:49.440 --> 1:02:54.440 | |
| is a list of more numbers than there are atoms in our universe. | |
| 1:02:54.440 --> 1:02:57.360 | |
| So clearly I can't store that under the hood of my GPU | |
| 1:02:57.360 --> 1:03:00.640 | |
| or my computer, yet somehow it works. | |
| 1:03:00.640 --> 1:03:01.480 | |
| So what does that mean? | |
| 1:03:01.480 --> 1:03:04.960 | |
| Well, it means that out of all of the problems | |
| 1:03:04.960 --> 1:03:08.200 | |
| that you could try to solve with a neural network, | |
| 1:03:10.120 --> 1:03:12.880 | |
| almost all of them are impossible to solve | |
| 1:03:12.880 --> 1:03:14.560 | |
| with a reasonably sized one. | |
| 1:03:15.480 --> 1:03:17.440 | |
| But then what we showed in our paper | |
| 1:03:17.440 --> 1:03:22.360 | |
| was that the fraction, the kind of problems, | |
| 1:03:22.360 --> 1:03:23.800 | |
| the fraction of all the problems | |
| 1:03:23.800 --> 1:03:26.520 | |
| that you could possibly pose, | |
| 1:03:26.520 --> 1:03:29.480 | |
| that we actually care about given the laws of physics | |
| 1:03:29.480 --> 1:03:32.480 | |
| is also an infinite testimony, tiny little part. | |
| 1:03:32.480 --> 1:03:35.440 | |
| And amazingly, they're basically the same part. | |
| 1:03:35.440 --> 1:03:37.560 | |
| Yeah, it's almost like our world was created for, | |
| 1:03:37.560 --> 1:03:39.000 | |
| I mean, they kind of come together. | |
| 1:03:39.000 --> 1:03:42.800 | |
| Yeah, well, you could say maybe where the world was created | |
| 1:03:42.800 --> 1:03:44.960 | |
| for us, but I have a more modest interpretation, | |
| 1:03:44.960 --> 1:03:46.680 | |
| which is that the world was created for us, | |
| 1:03:46.680 --> 1:03:48.040 | |
| but I have a more modest interpretation, | |
| 1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:50.360 | |
| which is that instead evolution endowed us | |
| 1:03:50.360 --> 1:03:53.120 | |
| with neural networks precisely for that reason. | |
| 1:03:53.120 --> 1:03:54.640 | |
| Because this particular architecture, | |
| 1:03:54.640 --> 1:03:56.040 | |
| as opposed to the one in your laptop, | |
| 1:03:56.040 --> 1:04:01.040 | |
| is very, very well adapted to solving the kind of problems | |
| 1:04:02.480 --> 1:04:05.560 | |
| that nature kept presenting our ancestors with. | |
| 1:04:05.560 --> 1:04:08.120 | |
| So it makes sense that why do we have a brain | |
| 1:04:08.120 --> 1:04:09.280 | |
| in the first place? | |
| 1:04:09.280 --> 1:04:11.880 | |
| It's to be able to make predictions about the future | |
| 1:04:11.880 --> 1:04:12.880 | |
| and so on. | |
| 1:04:12.880 --> 1:04:16.440 | |
| So if we had a sucky system, which could never solve it, | |
| 1:04:16.440 --> 1:04:18.280 | |
| we wouldn't have a world. | |
| 1:04:18.280 --> 1:04:23.280 | |
| So this is, I think, a very beautiful fact. | |
| 1:04:23.680 --> 1:04:24.520 | |
| Yeah. | |
| 1:04:24.520 --> 1:04:29.000 | |
| We also realize that there's been earlier work | |
| 1:04:29.000 --> 1:04:32.040 | |
| on why deeper networks are good, | |
| 1:04:32.040 --> 1:04:34.680 | |
| but we were able to show an additional cool fact there, | |
| 1:04:34.680 --> 1:04:38.360 | |
| which is that even incredibly simple problems, | |
| 1:04:38.360 --> 1:04:41.080 | |
| like suppose I give you a thousand numbers | |
| 1:04:41.080 --> 1:04:42.720 | |
| and ask you to multiply them together, | |
| 1:04:42.720 --> 1:04:46.680 | |
| and you can write a few lines of code, boom, done, trivial. | |
| 1:04:46.680 --> 1:04:49.520 | |
| If you just try to do that with a neural network | |
| 1:04:49.520 --> 1:04:52.440 | |
| that has only one single hidden layer in it, | |
| 1:04:52.440 --> 1:04:53.400 | |
| you can do it, | |
| 1:04:54.320 --> 1:04:57.360 | |
| but you're going to need two to the power of a thousand | |
| 1:04:57.360 --> 1:05:00.920 | |
| neurons to multiply a thousand numbers, | |
| 1:05:00.920 --> 1:05:02.520 | |
| which is, again, more neurons than there are atoms | |
| 1:05:02.520 --> 1:05:03.360 | |
| in our universe. | |
| 1:05:04.600 --> 1:05:05.480 | |
| That's fascinating. | |
| 1:05:05.480 --> 1:05:09.960 | |
| But if you allow yourself to make it a deep network | |
| 1:05:09.960 --> 1:05:13.240 | |
| with many layers, you only need 4,000 neurons. | |
| 1:05:13.240 --> 1:05:14.520 | |
| It's perfectly feasible. | |
| 1:05:16.400 --> 1:05:17.960 | |
| That's really interesting. | |
| 1:05:17.960 --> 1:05:18.800 | |
| Yeah. | |
| 1:05:18.800 --> 1:05:21.040 | |
| So on another architecture type, | |
| 1:05:21.040 --> 1:05:22.720 | |
| I mean, you mentioned Schrodinger's equation, | |
| 1:05:22.720 --> 1:05:26.360 | |
| and what are your thoughts about quantum computing | |
| 1:05:27.240 --> 1:05:32.240 | |
| and the role of this kind of computational unit | |
| 1:05:32.400 --> 1:05:34.880 | |
| in creating an intelligence system? | |
| 1:05:34.880 --> 1:05:39.520 | |
| In some Hollywood movies that I will not mention by name | |
| 1:05:39.520 --> 1:05:41.040 | |
| because I don't want to spoil them. | |
| 1:05:41.040 --> 1:05:44.240 | |
| The way they get AGI is building a quantum computer. | |
| 1:05:45.480 --> 1:05:47.600 | |
| Because the word quantum sounds cool and so on. | |
| 1:05:47.600 --> 1:05:48.440 | |
| That's right. | |
| 1:05:50.040 --> 1:05:52.880 | |
| First of all, I think we don't need quantum computers | |
| 1:05:52.880 --> 1:05:54.920 | |
| to build AGI. | |
| 1:05:54.920 --> 1:05:59.240 | |
| I suspect your brain is not a quantum computer | |
| 1:05:59.240 --> 1:06:00.640 | |
| in any profound sense. | |
| 1:06:01.600 --> 1:06:03.200 | |
| So you don't even wrote a paper about that | |
| 1:06:03.200 --> 1:06:04.560 | |
| a lot many years ago. | |
| 1:06:04.560 --> 1:06:08.120 | |
| I calculated the so called decoherence time, | |
| 1:06:08.120 --> 1:06:10.320 | |
| how long it takes until the quantum computerness | |
| 1:06:10.320 --> 1:06:13.400 | |
| of what your neurons are doing gets erased | |
| 1:06:15.320 --> 1:06:17.960 | |
| by just random noise from the environment. | |
| 1:06:17.960 --> 1:06:21.320 | |
| And it's about 10 to the minus 21 seconds. | |
| 1:06:21.320 --> 1:06:24.600 | |
| So as cool as it would be to have a quantum computer | |
| 1:06:24.600 --> 1:06:27.320 | |
| in my head, I don't think that fast. | |
| 1:06:27.320 --> 1:06:28.360 | |
| On the other hand, | |
| 1:06:28.360 --> 1:06:33.040 | |
| there are very cool things you could do | |
| 1:06:33.040 --> 1:06:34.200 | |
| with quantum computers. | |
| 1:06:35.240 --> 1:06:37.480 | |
| Or I think we'll be able to do soon | |
| 1:06:37.480 --> 1:06:39.360 | |
| when we get bigger ones. | |
| 1:06:39.360 --> 1:06:40.960 | |
| That might actually help machine learning | |
| 1:06:40.960 --> 1:06:43.160 | |
| do even better than the brain. | |
| 1:06:43.160 --> 1:06:45.640 | |
| So for example, | |
| 1:06:47.040 --> 1:06:50.760 | |
| one, this is just a moonshot, | |
| 1:06:50.760 --> 1:06:55.760 | |
| but learning is very much same thing as search. | |
| 1:07:01.800 --> 1:07:03.160 | |
| If you're trying to train a neural network | |
| 1:07:03.160 --> 1:07:06.240 | |
| to get really learned to do something really well, | |
| 1:07:06.240 --> 1:07:07.280 | |
| you have some loss function, | |
| 1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:10.360 | |
| you have a bunch of knobs you can turn, | |
| 1:07:10.360 --> 1:07:12.080 | |
| represented by a bunch of numbers, | |
| 1:07:12.080 --> 1:07:12.920 | |
| and you're trying to tweak them | |
| 1:07:12.920 --> 1:07:15.080 | |
| so that it becomes as good as possible at this thing. | |
| 1:07:15.080 --> 1:07:19.680 | |
| So if you think of a landscape with some valley, | |
| 1:07:20.720 --> 1:07:22.120 | |
| where each dimension of the landscape | |
| 1:07:22.120 --> 1:07:24.120 | |
| corresponds to some number you can change, | |
| 1:07:24.120 --> 1:07:25.640 | |
| you're trying to find the minimum. | |
| 1:07:25.640 --> 1:07:26.760 | |
| And it's well known that | |
| 1:07:26.760 --> 1:07:29.040 | |
| if you have a very high dimensional landscape, | |
| 1:07:29.040 --> 1:07:31.840 | |
| complicated things, it's super hard to find the minimum. | |
| 1:07:31.840 --> 1:07:35.840 | |
| Quantum mechanics is amazingly good at this. | |
| 1:07:35.840 --> 1:07:38.240 | |
| Like if I want to know what's the lowest energy state | |
| 1:07:38.240 --> 1:07:39.720 | |
| this water can possibly have, | |
| 1:07:41.720 --> 1:07:42.560 | |
| incredibly hard to compute, | |
| 1:07:42.560 --> 1:07:45.400 | |
| but nature will happily figure this out for you | |
| 1:07:45.400 --> 1:07:48.000 | |
| if you just cool it down, make it very, very cold. | |
| 1:07:49.800 --> 1:07:50.880 | |
| If you put a ball somewhere, | |
| 1:07:50.880 --> 1:07:52.240 | |
| it'll roll down to its minimum. | |
| 1:07:52.240 --> 1:07:54.280 | |
| And this happens metaphorically | |
| 1:07:54.280 --> 1:07:56.320 | |
| at the energy landscape too. | |
| 1:07:56.320 --> 1:07:59.280 | |
| And quantum mechanics even uses some clever tricks, | |
| 1:07:59.280 --> 1:08:02.520 | |
| which today's machine learning systems don't. | |
| 1:08:02.520 --> 1:08:04.160 | |
| Like if you're trying to find the minimum | |
| 1:08:04.160 --> 1:08:06.960 | |
| and you get stuck in the little local minimum here, | |
| 1:08:06.960 --> 1:08:08.760 | |
| in quantum mechanics you can actually tunnel | |
| 1:08:08.760 --> 1:08:11.840 | |
| through the barrier and get unstuck again. | |
| 1:08:13.480 --> 1:08:14.320 | |
| That's really interesting. | |
| 1:08:14.320 --> 1:08:16.120 | |
| Yeah, so it may be, for example, | |
| 1:08:16.120 --> 1:08:19.160 | |
| that we'll one day use quantum computers | |
| 1:08:19.160 --> 1:08:22.840 | |
| that help train neural networks better. | |
| 1:08:22.840 --> 1:08:23.680 | |
| That's really interesting. | |
| 1:08:23.680 --> 1:08:27.040 | |
| Okay, so as a component of kind of the learning process, | |
| 1:08:27.040 --> 1:08:27.880 | |
| for example. | |
| 1:08:27.880 --> 1:08:29.440 | |
| Yeah. | |
| 1:08:29.440 --> 1:08:33.080 | |
| Let me ask sort of wrapping up here a little bit, | |
| 1:08:33.080 --> 1:08:36.880 | |
| let me return to the questions of our human nature | |
| 1:08:36.880 --> 1:08:40.000 | |
| and love, as I mentioned. | |
| 1:08:40.000 --> 1:08:41.640 | |
| So do you think, | |
| 1:08:44.280 --> 1:08:46.000 | |
| you mentioned sort of a helper robot, | |
| 1:08:46.000 --> 1:08:48.640 | |
| but you could think of also personal robots. | |
| 1:08:48.640 --> 1:08:52.480 | |
| Do you think the way we human beings fall in love | |
| 1:08:52.480 --> 1:08:54.680 | |
| and get connected to each other | |
| 1:08:54.680 --> 1:08:58.040 | |
| is possible to achieve in an AI system | |
| 1:08:58.040 --> 1:09:00.360 | |
| and human level AI intelligence system? | |
| 1:09:00.360 --> 1:09:03.720 | |
| Do you think we would ever see that kind of connection? | |
| 1:09:03.720 --> 1:09:06.160 | |
| Or, you know, in all this discussion | |
| 1:09:06.160 --> 1:09:08.520 | |
| about solving complex goals, | |
| 1:09:08.520 --> 1:09:10.760 | |
| is this kind of human social connection, | |
| 1:09:10.760 --> 1:09:12.560 | |
| do you think that's one of the goals | |
| 1:09:12.560 --> 1:09:16.280 | |
| on the peaks and valleys with the raising sea levels | |
| 1:09:16.280 --> 1:09:17.360 | |
| that we'll be able to achieve? | |
| 1:09:17.360 --> 1:09:20.040 | |
| Or do you think that's something that's ultimately, | |
| 1:09:20.040 --> 1:09:21.760 | |
| or at least in the short term, | |
| 1:09:21.760 --> 1:09:23.640 | |
| relative to the other goals is not achievable? | |
| 1:09:23.640 --> 1:09:25.120 | |
| I think it's all possible. | |
| 1:09:25.120 --> 1:09:27.600 | |
| And I mean, in recent, | |
| 1:09:27.600 --> 1:09:30.840 | |
| there's a very wide range of guesses, as you know, | |
| 1:09:30.840 --> 1:09:33.720 | |
| among AI researchers, when we're going to get AGI. | |
| 1:09:35.120 --> 1:09:37.640 | |
| Some people, you know, like our friend Rodney Brooks | |
| 1:09:37.640 --> 1:09:41.040 | |
| says it's going to be hundreds of years at least. | |
| 1:09:41.040 --> 1:09:42.200 | |
| And then there are many others | |
| 1:09:42.200 --> 1:09:44.040 | |
| who think it's going to happen much sooner. | |
| 1:09:44.040 --> 1:09:45.520 | |
| And recent polls, | |
| 1:09:46.840 --> 1:09:48.640 | |
| maybe half or so of AI researchers | |
| 1:09:48.640 --> 1:09:50.920 | |
| think we're going to get AGI within decades. | |
| 1:09:50.920 --> 1:09:52.720 | |
| So if that happens, of course, | |
| 1:09:52.720 --> 1:09:55.040 | |
| then I think these things are all possible. | |
| 1:09:55.040 --> 1:09:56.840 | |
| But in terms of whether it will happen, | |
| 1:09:56.840 --> 1:10:00.600 | |
| I think we shouldn't spend so much time asking | |
| 1:10:00.600 --> 1:10:03.240 | |
| what do we think will happen in the future? | |
| 1:10:03.240 --> 1:10:05.160 | |
| As if we are just some sort of pathetic, | |
| 1:10:05.160 --> 1:10:07.040 | |
| your passive bystanders, you know, | |
| 1:10:07.040 --> 1:10:09.280 | |
| waiting for the future to happen to us. | |
| 1:10:09.280 --> 1:10:11.640 | |
| Hey, we're the ones creating this future, right? | |
| 1:10:11.640 --> 1:10:15.520 | |
| So we should be proactive about it | |
| 1:10:15.520 --> 1:10:16.920 | |
| and ask ourselves what sort of future | |
| 1:10:16.920 --> 1:10:18.240 | |
| we would like to have happen. | |
| 1:10:18.240 --> 1:10:19.920 | |
| We're going to make it like that. | |
| 1:10:19.920 --> 1:10:22.720 | |
| Well, what I prefer is just some sort of incredibly boring, | |
| 1:10:22.720 --> 1:10:24.320 | |
| zombie like future where there's all these | |
| 1:10:24.320 --> 1:10:26.040 | |
| mechanical things happening and there's no passion, | |
| 1:10:26.040 --> 1:10:28.040 | |
| no emotion, no experience, maybe even. | |
| 1:10:29.600 --> 1:10:32.040 | |
| No, I would of course, much rather prefer it | |
| 1:10:32.040 --> 1:10:35.240 | |
| if all the things that we find that we value the most | |
| 1:10:36.240 --> 1:10:40.680 | |
| about humanity are our subjective experience, | |
| 1:10:40.680 --> 1:10:43.000 | |
| passion, inspiration, love, you know. | |
| 1:10:43.000 --> 1:10:48.000 | |
| If we can create a future where those things do happen, | |
| 1:10:48.000 --> 1:10:50.840 | |
| where those things do exist, you know, | |
| 1:10:50.840 --> 1:10:54.560 | |
| I think ultimately it's not our universe | |
| 1:10:54.560 --> 1:10:57.960 | |
| giving meaning to us, it's us giving meaning to our universe. | |
| 1:10:57.960 --> 1:11:01.840 | |
| And if we build more advanced intelligence, | |
| 1:11:01.840 --> 1:11:03.680 | |
| let's make sure we build it in such a way | |
| 1:11:03.680 --> 1:11:08.680 | |
| that meaning is part of it. | |
| 1:11:09.120 --> 1:11:11.400 | |
| A lot of people that seriously study this problem | |
| 1:11:11.400 --> 1:11:13.600 | |
| and think of it from different angles | |
| 1:11:13.600 --> 1:11:16.880 | |
| have trouble in the majority of cases, | |
| 1:11:16.880 --> 1:11:19.160 | |
| if they think through that happen, | |
| 1:11:19.160 --> 1:11:22.520 | |
| are the ones that are not beneficial to humanity. | |
| 1:11:22.520 --> 1:11:25.560 | |
| And so, yeah, so what are your thoughts? | |
| 1:11:25.560 --> 1:11:29.400 | |
| What's should people, you know, | |
| 1:11:29.400 --> 1:11:32.040 | |
| I really don't like people to be terrified. | |
| 1:11:33.440 --> 1:11:35.040 | |
| What's a way for people to think about it | |
| 1:11:35.040 --> 1:11:39.600 | |
| in a way we can solve it and we can make it better? | |
| 1:11:39.600 --> 1:11:42.960 | |
| No, I don't think panicking is going to help in any way. | |
| 1:11:42.960 --> 1:11:44.840 | |
| It's not going to increase chances | |
| 1:11:44.840 --> 1:11:45.880 | |
| of things going well either. | |
| 1:11:45.880 --> 1:11:48.400 | |
| Even if you are in a situation where there is a real threat, | |
| 1:11:48.400 --> 1:11:51.080 | |
| does it help if everybody just freaks out? | |
| 1:11:51.080 --> 1:11:52.680 | |
| No, of course, of course not. | |
| 1:11:53.640 --> 1:11:56.600 | |
| I think, yeah, there are of course ways | |
| 1:11:56.600 --> 1:11:58.440 | |
| in which things can go horribly wrong. | |
| 1:11:59.560 --> 1:12:03.680 | |
| First of all, it's important when we think about this thing, | |
| 1:12:03.680 --> 1:12:05.280 | |
| about the problems and risks, | |
| 1:12:05.280 --> 1:12:07.160 | |
| to also remember how huge the upsides can be | |
| 1:12:07.160 --> 1:12:08.440 | |
| if we get it right, right? | |
| 1:12:08.440 --> 1:12:12.360 | |
| Everything we love about society and civilization | |
| 1:12:12.360 --> 1:12:13.400 | |
| is a product of intelligence. | |
| 1:12:13.400 --> 1:12:15.320 | |
| So if we can amplify our intelligence | |
| 1:12:15.320 --> 1:12:18.760 | |
| with machine intelligence and not anymore lose our loved one | |
| 1:12:18.760 --> 1:12:21.080 | |
| to what we're told is an incurable disease | |
| 1:12:21.080 --> 1:12:24.800 | |
| and things like this, of course, we should aspire to that. | |
| 1:12:24.800 --> 1:12:26.680 | |
| So that can be a motivator, I think, | |
| 1:12:26.680 --> 1:12:29.120 | |
| reminding ourselves that the reason we try to solve problems | |
| 1:12:29.120 --> 1:12:33.520 | |
| is not just because we're trying to avoid gloom, | |
| 1:12:33.520 --> 1:12:35.760 | |
| but because we're trying to do something great. | |
| 1:12:35.760 --> 1:12:37.680 | |
| But then in terms of the risks, | |
| 1:12:37.680 --> 1:12:42.680 | |
| I think the really important question is to ask, | |
| 1:12:42.680 --> 1:12:45.480 | |
| what can we do today that will actually help | |
| 1:12:45.480 --> 1:12:47.320 | |
| make the outcome good, right? | |
| 1:12:47.320 --> 1:12:49.880 | |
| And dismissing the risk is not one of them. | |
| 1:12:51.240 --> 1:12:54.800 | |
| I find it quite funny often when I'm in discussion panels | |
| 1:12:54.800 --> 1:12:55.960 | |
| about these things, | |
| 1:12:55.960 --> 1:13:00.960 | |
| how the people who work for companies, | |
| 1:13:01.200 --> 1:13:03.120 | |
| always be like, oh, nothing to worry about, | |
| 1:13:03.120 --> 1:13:04.760 | |
| nothing to worry about, nothing to worry about. | |
| 1:13:04.760 --> 1:13:09.600 | |
| And it's only academics sometimes express concerns. | |
| 1:13:09.600 --> 1:13:11.880 | |
| That's not surprising at all if you think about it. | |
| 1:13:11.880 --> 1:13:12.880 | |
| Right. | |
| 1:13:12.880 --> 1:13:15.200 | |
| Upton Sinclair quipped, right, | |
| 1:13:15.200 --> 1:13:18.040 | |
| that it's hard to make a man believe in something | |
| 1:13:18.040 --> 1:13:20.120 | |
| when his income depends on not believing in it. | |
| 1:13:20.120 --> 1:13:24.080 | |
| And frankly, we know a lot of these people in companies | |
| 1:13:24.080 --> 1:13:26.240 | |
| that they're just as concerned as anyone else. | |
| 1:13:26.240 --> 1:13:28.480 | |
| But if you're the CEO of a company, | |
| 1:13:28.480 --> 1:13:30.280 | |
| that's not something you want to go on record saying | |
| 1:13:30.280 --> 1:13:33.440 | |
| when you have silly journalists who are gonna put a picture | |
| 1:13:33.440 --> 1:13:35.720 | |
| of a Terminator robot when they quote you. | |
| 1:13:35.720 --> 1:13:39.040 | |
| So the issues are real. | |
| 1:13:39.040 --> 1:13:41.920 | |
| And the way I think about what the issue is, | |
| 1:13:41.920 --> 1:13:46.920 | |
| is basically the real choice we have is, | |
| 1:13:48.040 --> 1:13:50.840 | |
| first of all, are we gonna just dismiss the risks | |
| 1:13:50.840 --> 1:13:54.480 | |
| and say, well, let's just go ahead and build machines | |
| 1:13:54.480 --> 1:13:57.560 | |
| that can do everything we can do better and cheaper. | |
| 1:13:57.560 --> 1:14:00.200 | |
| Let's just make ourselves obsolete as fast as possible. | |
| 1:14:00.200 --> 1:14:01.720 | |
| What could possibly go wrong? | |
| 1:14:01.720 --> 1:14:03.440 | |
| That's one attitude. | |
| 1:14:03.440 --> 1:14:05.440 | |
| The opposite attitude, I think, is to say, | |
| 1:14:06.400 --> 1:14:08.800 | |
| here's this incredible potential, | |
| 1:14:08.800 --> 1:14:11.960 | |
| let's think about what kind of future | |
| 1:14:11.960 --> 1:14:14.640 | |
| we're really, really excited about. | |
| 1:14:14.640 --> 1:14:18.480 | |
| What are the shared goals that we can really aspire towards? | |
| 1:14:18.480 --> 1:14:19.960 | |
| And then let's think really hard | |
| 1:14:19.960 --> 1:14:22.000 | |
| about how we can actually get there. | |
| 1:14:22.000 --> 1:14:24.160 | |
| So start with, don't start thinking about the risks, | |
| 1:14:24.160 --> 1:14:26.720 | |
| start thinking about the goals. | |
| 1:14:26.720 --> 1:14:28.200 | |
| And then when you do that, | |
| 1:14:28.200 --> 1:14:30.480 | |
| then you can think about the obstacles you want to avoid. | |
| 1:14:30.480 --> 1:14:32.840 | |
| I often get students coming in right here into my office | |
| 1:14:32.840 --> 1:14:34.120 | |
| for career advice. | |
| 1:14:34.120 --> 1:14:35.560 | |
| I always ask them this very question, | |
| 1:14:35.560 --> 1:14:37.920 | |
| where do you want to be in the future? | |
| 1:14:37.920 --> 1:14:40.640 | |
| If all she can say is, oh, maybe I'll have cancer, | |
| 1:14:40.640 --> 1:14:42.480 | |
| maybe I'll get run over by a truck. | |
| 1:14:42.480 --> 1:14:44.280 | |
| Yeah, focus on the obstacles instead of the goals. | |
| 1:14:44.280 --> 1:14:46.880 | |
| She's just going to end up a hypochondriac paranoid. | |
| 1:14:47.920 --> 1:14:49.920 | |
| Whereas if she comes in and fire in her eyes | |
| 1:14:49.920 --> 1:14:51.840 | |
| and is like, I want to be there. | |
| 1:14:51.840 --> 1:14:53.960 | |
| And then we can talk about the obstacles | |
| 1:14:53.960 --> 1:14:55.760 | |
| and see how we can circumvent them. | |
| 1:14:55.760 --> 1:14:58.880 | |
| That's, I think, a much, much healthier attitude. | |
| 1:14:58.880 --> 1:15:03.880 | |
| And I feel it's very challenging to come up with a vision | |
| 1:15:03.880 --> 1:15:08.120 | |
| for the future, which we are unequivocally excited about. | |
| 1:15:08.120 --> 1:15:10.320 | |
| I'm not just talking now in the vague terms, | |
| 1:15:10.320 --> 1:15:12.360 | |
| like, yeah, let's cure cancer, fine. | |
| 1:15:12.360 --> 1:15:14.720 | |
| I'm talking about what kind of society | |
| 1:15:14.720 --> 1:15:15.840 | |
| do we want to create? | |
| 1:15:15.840 --> 1:15:20.360 | |
| What do we want it to mean to be human in the age of AI, | |
| 1:15:20.360 --> 1:15:21.720 | |
| in the age of AGI? | |
| 1:15:22.840 --> 1:15:25.360 | |
| So if we can have this conversation, | |
| 1:15:25.360 --> 1:15:28.200 | |
| broad, inclusive conversation, | |
| 1:15:28.200 --> 1:15:31.400 | |
| and gradually start converging towards some, | |
| 1:15:31.400 --> 1:15:34.240 | |
| some future that with some direction, at least, | |
| 1:15:34.240 --> 1:15:35.400 | |
| that we want to steer towards, right, | |
| 1:15:35.400 --> 1:15:38.160 | |
| then we'll be much more motivated | |
| 1:15:38.160 --> 1:15:39.960 | |
| to constructively take on the obstacles. | |
| 1:15:39.960 --> 1:15:43.560 | |
| And I think if I had, if I had to, | |
| 1:15:43.560 --> 1:15:46.640 | |
| if I try to wrap this up in a more succinct way, | |
| 1:15:46.640 --> 1:15:51.480 | |
| I think we can all agree already now | |
| 1:15:51.480 --> 1:15:56.160 | |
| that we should aspire to build AGI | |
| 1:15:56.160 --> 1:16:05.160 | |
| that doesn't overpower us, but that empowers us. | |
| 1:16:05.160 --> 1:16:08.560 | |
| And think of the many various ways that can do that, | |
| 1:16:08.560 --> 1:16:11.000 | |
| whether that's from my side of the world | |
| 1:16:11.000 --> 1:16:12.720 | |
| of autonomous vehicles. | |
| 1:16:12.720 --> 1:16:14.720 | |
| I'm personally actually from the camp | |
| 1:16:14.720 --> 1:16:16.800 | |
| that believes this human level intelligence | |
| 1:16:16.800 --> 1:16:20.480 | |
| is required to achieve something like vehicles | |
| 1:16:20.480 --> 1:16:23.880 | |
| that would actually be something we would enjoy using | |
| 1:16:23.880 --> 1:16:25.120 | |
| and being part of. | |
| 1:16:25.120 --> 1:16:27.040 | |
| So that's one example, and certainly there's a lot | |
| 1:16:27.040 --> 1:16:30.920 | |
| of other types of robots and medicine and so on. | |
| 1:16:30.920 --> 1:16:33.880 | |
| So focusing on those and then coming up with the obstacles, | |
| 1:16:33.880 --> 1:16:35.920 | |
| coming up with the ways that that can go wrong | |
| 1:16:35.920 --> 1:16:38.160 | |
| and solving those one at a time. | |
| 1:16:38.160 --> 1:16:41.520 | |
| And just because you can build an autonomous vehicle, | |
| 1:16:41.520 --> 1:16:42.800 | |
| even if you could build one | |
| 1:16:42.800 --> 1:16:45.080 | |
| that would drive just fine without you, | |
| 1:16:45.080 --> 1:16:46.720 | |
| maybe there are some things in life | |
| 1:16:46.720 --> 1:16:48.400 | |
| that we would actually want to do ourselves. | |
| 1:16:48.400 --> 1:16:49.240 | |
| That's right. | |
| 1:16:49.240 --> 1:16:51.400 | |
| Right, like, for example, | |
| 1:16:51.400 --> 1:16:53.040 | |
| if you think of our society as a whole, | |
| 1:16:53.040 --> 1:16:56.320 | |
| there are some things that we find very meaningful to do. | |
| 1:16:57.200 --> 1:16:59.640 | |
| And that doesn't mean we have to stop doing them | |
| 1:16:59.640 --> 1:17:02.000 | |
| just because machines can do them better. | |
| 1:17:02.000 --> 1:17:04.080 | |
| I'm not gonna stop playing tennis | |
| 1:17:04.080 --> 1:17:07.360 | |
| just the day someone builds a tennis robot and beat me. | |
| 1:17:07.360 --> 1:17:09.600 | |
| People are still playing chess and even go. | |
| 1:17:09.600 --> 1:17:14.600 | |
| Yeah, and in the very near term even, | |
| 1:17:14.600 --> 1:17:18.880 | |
| some people are advocating basic income, replace jobs. | |
| 1:17:18.880 --> 1:17:20.840 | |
| But if the government is gonna be willing | |
| 1:17:20.840 --> 1:17:24.040 | |
| to just hand out cash to people for doing nothing, | |
| 1:17:24.040 --> 1:17:25.840 | |
| then one should also seriously consider | |
| 1:17:25.840 --> 1:17:27.640 | |
| whether the government should also hire | |
| 1:17:27.640 --> 1:17:29.480 | |
| a lot more teachers and nurses | |
| 1:17:29.480 --> 1:17:32.160 | |
| and the kind of jobs which people often | |
| 1:17:32.160 --> 1:17:34.440 | |
| find great fulfillment in doing, right? | |
| 1:17:34.440 --> 1:17:36.320 | |
| We get very tired of hearing politicians saying, | |
| 1:17:36.320 --> 1:17:39.320 | |
| oh, we can't afford hiring more teachers, | |
| 1:17:39.320 --> 1:17:41.480 | |
| but we're gonna maybe have basic income. | |
| 1:17:41.480 --> 1:17:44.000 | |
| If we can have more serious research and thought | |
| 1:17:44.000 --> 1:17:46.200 | |
| into what gives meaning to our lives, | |
| 1:17:46.200 --> 1:17:48.960 | |
| the jobs give so much more than income, right? | |
| 1:17:48.960 --> 1:17:50.520 | |
| Mm hmm. | |
| 1:17:50.520 --> 1:17:53.320 | |
| And then think about in the future, | |
| 1:17:53.320 --> 1:17:58.320 | |
| what are the roles that we wanna have people | |
| 1:18:00.000 --> 1:18:03.040 | |
| continually feeling empowered by machines? | |
| 1:18:03.040 --> 1:18:06.120 | |
| And I think sort of, I come from Russia, | |
| 1:18:06.120 --> 1:18:07.240 | |
| from the Soviet Union. | |
| 1:18:07.240 --> 1:18:10.160 | |
| And I think for a lot of people in the 20th century, | |
| 1:18:10.160 --> 1:18:14.080 | |
| going to the moon, going to space was an inspiring thing. | |
| 1:18:14.080 --> 1:18:18.080 | |
| I feel like the universe of the mind, | |
| 1:18:18.080 --> 1:18:20.880 | |
| so AI, understanding, creating intelligence | |
| 1:18:20.880 --> 1:18:23.240 | |
| is that for the 21st century. | |
| 1:18:23.240 --> 1:18:24.400 | |
| So it's really surprising. | |
| 1:18:24.400 --> 1:18:25.640 | |
| And I've heard you mention this. | |
| 1:18:25.640 --> 1:18:27.400 | |
| It's really surprising to me, | |
| 1:18:27.400 --> 1:18:29.240 | |
| both on the research funding side, | |
| 1:18:29.240 --> 1:18:31.760 | |
| that it's not funded as greatly as it could be, | |
| 1:18:31.760 --> 1:18:34.760 | |
| but most importantly, on the politician side, | |
| 1:18:34.760 --> 1:18:36.520 | |
| that it's not part of the public discourse | |
| 1:18:36.520 --> 1:18:40.800 | |
| except in the killer bots terminator kind of view, | |
| 1:18:40.800 --> 1:18:44.880 | |
| that people are not yet, I think, perhaps excited | |
| 1:18:44.880 --> 1:18:46.680 | |
| by the possible positive future | |
| 1:18:46.680 --> 1:18:48.120 | |
| that we can build together. | |
| 1:18:48.120 --> 1:18:51.520 | |
| So we should be, because politicians usually just focus | |
| 1:18:51.520 --> 1:18:53.320 | |
| on the next election cycle, right? | |
| 1:18:54.480 --> 1:18:57.160 | |
| The single most important thing I feel we humans have learned | |
| 1:18:57.160 --> 1:18:59.320 | |
| in the entire history of science | |
| 1:18:59.320 --> 1:19:02.040 | |
| is they were the masters of underestimation. | |
| 1:19:02.040 --> 1:19:07.040 | |
| We underestimated the size of our cosmos again and again, | |
| 1:19:08.480 --> 1:19:10.200 | |
| realizing that everything we thought existed | |
| 1:19:10.200 --> 1:19:12.240 | |
| was just a small part of something grander, right? | |
| 1:19:12.240 --> 1:19:16.640 | |
| Planet, solar system, the galaxy, clusters of galaxies. | |
| 1:19:16.640 --> 1:19:17.560 | |
| The universe. | |
| 1:19:18.440 --> 1:19:23.120 | |
| And we now know that the future has just | |
| 1:19:23.120 --> 1:19:25.160 | |
| so much more potential | |
| 1:19:25.160 --> 1:19:27.640 | |
| than our ancestors could ever have dreamt of. | |
| 1:19:27.640 --> 1:19:32.360 | |
| This cosmos, imagine if all of Earth | |
| 1:19:33.600 --> 1:19:35.440 | |
| was completely devoid of life, | |
| 1:19:36.640 --> 1:19:38.520 | |
| except for Cambridge, Massachusetts. | |
| 1:19:39.560 --> 1:19:42.680 | |
| Wouldn't it be kind of lame if all we ever aspired to | |
| 1:19:42.680 --> 1:19:45.560 | |
| was to stay in Cambridge, Massachusetts forever | |
| 1:19:45.560 --> 1:19:47.160 | |
| and then go extinct in one week, | |
| 1:19:47.160 --> 1:19:49.760 | |
| even though Earth was gonna continue on for longer? | |
| 1:19:49.760 --> 1:19:52.800 | |
| That sort of attitude I think we have now | |
| 1:19:54.200 --> 1:19:57.800 | |
| on the cosmic scale, life can flourish on Earth, | |
| 1:19:57.800 --> 1:20:00.840 | |
| not for four years, but for billions of years. | |
| 1:20:00.840 --> 1:20:02.920 | |
| I can even tell you about how to move it out of harm's way | |
| 1:20:02.920 --> 1:20:04.840 | |
| when the sun gets too hot. | |
| 1:20:04.840 --> 1:20:09.520 | |
| And then we have so much more resources out here, | |
| 1:20:09.520 --> 1:20:12.480 | |
| which today, maybe there are a lot of other planets | |
| 1:20:12.480 --> 1:20:14.960 | |
| with bacteria or cow like life on them, | |
| 1:20:14.960 --> 1:20:19.880 | |
| but most of this, all this opportunity seems, | |
| 1:20:19.880 --> 1:20:22.440 | |
| as far as we can tell, to be largely dead, | |
| 1:20:22.440 --> 1:20:23.560 | |
| like the Sahara Desert. | |
| 1:20:23.560 --> 1:20:28.480 | |
| And yet we have the opportunity to help life flourish | |
| 1:20:28.480 --> 1:20:30.280 | |
| around this for billions of years. | |
| 1:20:30.280 --> 1:20:32.680 | |
| So let's quit squabbling about | |
| 1:20:34.080 --> 1:20:36.480 | |
| whether some little border should be drawn | |
| 1:20:36.480 --> 1:20:38.440 | |
| one mile to the left or right, | |
| 1:20:38.440 --> 1:20:41.080 | |
| and look up into the skies and realize, | |
| 1:20:41.080 --> 1:20:44.040 | |
| hey, we can do such incredible things. | |
| 1:20:44.040 --> 1:20:46.640 | |
| Yeah, and that's, I think, why it's really exciting | |
| 1:20:46.640 --> 1:20:49.440 | |
| that you and others are connected | |
| 1:20:49.440 --> 1:20:51.880 | |
| with some of the work Elon Musk is doing, | |
| 1:20:51.880 --> 1:20:54.480 | |
| because he's literally going out into that space, | |
| 1:20:54.480 --> 1:20:57.000 | |
| really exploring our universe, and it's wonderful. | |
| 1:20:57.000 --> 1:21:02.000 | |
| That is exactly why Elon Musk is so misunderstood, right? | |
| 1:21:02.000 --> 1:21:05.000 | |
| Misconstrued him as some kind of pessimistic doomsayer. | |
| 1:21:05.000 --> 1:21:07.640 | |
| The reason he cares so much about AI safety | |
| 1:21:07.640 --> 1:21:12.080 | |
| is because he more than almost anyone else appreciates | |
| 1:21:12.080 --> 1:21:14.280 | |
| these amazing opportunities that we'll squander | |
| 1:21:14.280 --> 1:21:16.640 | |
| if we wipe out here on Earth. | |
| 1:21:16.640 --> 1:21:19.680 | |
| We're not just going to wipe out the next generation, | |
| 1:21:19.680 --> 1:21:23.320 | |
| all generations, and this incredible opportunity | |
| 1:21:23.320 --> 1:21:25.400 | |
| that's out there, and that would really be a waste. | |
| 1:21:25.400 --> 1:21:30.080 | |
| And AI, for people who think that it would be better | |
| 1:21:30.080 --> 1:21:33.600 | |
| to do without technology, let me just mention that | |
| 1:21:34.680 --> 1:21:36.320 | |
| if we don't improve our technology, | |
| 1:21:36.320 --> 1:21:39.320 | |
| the question isn't whether humanity is going to go extinct. | |
| 1:21:39.320 --> 1:21:41.160 | |
| The question is just whether we're going to get taken out | |
| 1:21:41.160 --> 1:21:44.800 | |
| by the next big asteroid or the next super volcano | |
| 1:21:44.800 --> 1:21:48.280 | |
| or something else dumb that we could easily prevent | |
| 1:21:48.280 --> 1:21:49.840 | |
| with more tech, right? | |
| 1:21:49.840 --> 1:21:53.160 | |
| And if we want life to flourish throughout the cosmos, | |
| 1:21:53.160 --> 1:21:54.760 | |
| AI is the key to it. | |
| 1:21:56.120 --> 1:21:59.840 | |
| As I mentioned in a lot of detail in my book right there, | |
| 1:21:59.840 --> 1:22:04.840 | |
| even many of the most inspired sci fi writers, | |
| 1:22:04.880 --> 1:22:08.120 | |
| I feel have totally underestimated the opportunities | |
| 1:22:08.120 --> 1:22:11.240 | |
| for space travel, especially at the other galaxies, | |
| 1:22:11.240 --> 1:22:15.360 | |
| because they weren't thinking about the possibility of AGI, | |
| 1:22:15.360 --> 1:22:17.520 | |
| which just makes it so much easier. | |
| 1:22:17.520 --> 1:22:18.440 | |
| Right, yeah. | |
| 1:22:18.440 --> 1:22:23.440 | |
| So that goes to your view of AGI that enables our progress, | |
| 1:22:24.080 --> 1:22:25.760 | |
| that enables a better life. | |
| 1:22:25.760 --> 1:22:28.320 | |
| So that's a beautiful way to put it | |
| 1:22:28.320 --> 1:22:29.960 | |
| and then something to strive for. | |
| 1:22:29.960 --> 1:22:31.440 | |
| So Max, thank you so much. | |
| 1:22:31.440 --> 1:22:32.560 | |
| Thank you for your time today. | |
| 1:22:32.560 --> 1:22:33.560 | |
| It's been awesome. | |
| 1:22:33.560 --> 1:22:34.400 | |
| Thank you so much. | |
| 1:22:34.400 --> 1:22:35.240 | |
| Thanks. | |
| 1:22:35.240 --> 1:22:40.240 | |
| Have a great day. | |