Long Range Forecast: Paradoria 2, Doctor Sleep, Last Christmas, Midway, & Playing with Fire

*Box Office Pro*

This week’s report welcomes the addition of five new films slated to open Friday, November 8 as our preliminary look at the 2019 holiday season continues.

Paradoria 2: Enchanted Realm

Opening Weekend Range: $150M – $195M

PROS:

* Paradoria started off as an immediate surprise success with it’s $113.9 million start four years ago which is currently the record for the best animated opening in March and eventually legged out to $411.1 million domestically – earning praise from audiences and critics alike.
* The first film is regarded as an instant classic due to repeated broadcasting on television and high DVD and soundtrack sales so the sequel can possibly gross even more than the original film.
* The film is already outpacing fellow openings Cool Spot ($138.1 million) as well as fellow November openings Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ($141 million), Twilight: New Moon ($142.8 million), and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158 million).
* The star power of Tom Holland as well as supporting cast member Tom Cruise along with Finn Wolfhard’s growing popularity in the industry from the movie It and the Netflix show Stranger Things can contribute as well.
* As the first tentpole animated release to open since August’s Havoc on the Planet of the Apes (which flopped domestically), demand for a family-driven event should be very high by the time this opens in November.
* With a four-year gap between this sequel and its predecessor, there could be room for audience expansion to include kids who were too young (or not born yet) to see the first pic in theaters.
* Social media buzz of the film is blowing up as it is one of the most talked about movies of all time on various sites including Twitter.

CONS:

* The film can end up opening up to lukewarm reviews similarily to Computeropolis: The Deep Web which can hurt the opening of the film.
* With a debut four weeks before a major holiday weekend in the U.S., some families could opt to wait and see the film until they’re on break from work and school — meaning any goal of achieving a record November opening weekend will be a challenge. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire owns that title with $158.1 million, while the highest opening animated title is 2004’s The Incredibles ($70.5 million) with the latter being easier to achieve.
* Long term, this sequel will face stiff competition for family audiences in Frozen II, Ico, Jumanji: The Next Level, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, and Spies In Disguise from late November/December/early January. The original Paradoria‘s primary source of competition in the same window was a less formidable combo of Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
* The openings of both Computeropolis 4 and Toy Story 4 which both opened below expectations leaves us cautious in our predictions.

PROS:

* Doctor Sleep boasts not only the pedigree of serving as the long-awaited sequel to horror classic The Shining, but star Ewan McGregor and director Mike Flanagan — the latter fresh off major success in the genre with Netflix’s The Haunting of Hill House. Early social and trailer trends are indicative of a potential box office hit should reviews and audience reception prove favorable.
* Last Christmas will offer up a date night-friendly rom-com perfectly timed for the long holiday runway through November and December (perhaps not unlike 2003’s Love Actually). The first trailer was a hit with social media, director Paul Feig (Bridesmaids, A Simple Favor) is no stranger to crowd-pleasing box office success, and stars Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) and Henry Golding (Crazy Rich Asians) should attract their respective fans.
* Adult males will be the target audience for Midway as Lionsgate positions the film in the same corridor they did for Hacksaw Ridge three years ago. With a star-driven ensemble, the film only needs healthy reviews and/or word of mouth to generate a respectable late fall run.
* John Cena’s rise to comedic prowess in films like Blockers and Ferdinand is an advantage for Playing with Fire, particularly among family audiences who don’t have many alternative options in early November.

CONS:

* Doctor Sleep‘s primary barrier to breakout status could be how reliant it is on younger audience familiarity with the source Stephen King novels and/or The Shining. That crowd has proven to be a big element in the breakout nature of recent horror hits.
* Christmas-themed movies have historically been all over the map in terms of box office track records, as have rom-coms in recent years with very few examples of standout performances. Still, so far, Last Christmas looks like a solid candidate to be excluded from those trends.
* Director Roland Emmerich’s most recent films (Independence Day: Resurgence and White House Down) were notable box office misfires, unfortunately. Midway isn’t quite as high profile of a release as those summer films were, so marketing and reception both will be crucial to the bottom line. Overseas performance may ultimately be its strong point, though.
* Last year’s Instant Family aimed for a similar crowd as Playing with Fire and, despite strong reviews, wasn’t able to reach the breakout status Paramount had hoped for by moving its release date up to November. Comparable family-driven titles in past years have misfired or performed modestly, and contending with Frozen II in its third weekend won’t be an easy task.

Opening Weekend Ranges

* *Paradoria 2* ($150 – 195 million)
* *Doctor Sleep* ($20 – 30 million)
* *Last Christmas* ($12 – 17 million)
* *Midway* ($10 – 15 million)
* *Playing with Fire* ($7 – 12 million)

8-Week Forecast