What if~Tokugawa lost the battle of Sekigahara?

Japan, one of the world's finest island nations. It has a history that is soaked in blood, genocide and even distrust amongst clans. It was even ruled by superior officers called Shoguns. The biggest one is one ruled by Ieyasu Tokugawa: said to be a patient military strategist. It has ruled for nearly 3 centuries and has created some of the nation's history and heritage that even modern Japanese people know about. But what would happen to Japan if it wasn't ruled by Tokugawa, what if he lost the most important battle in Japanese history: The Battle of Sekigahara. But first, I have to give you a history lesson. You can just scroll down to see the Alternate History.

## History

In Japan, and the Year 1598, after Toyotomi Hideyoshi filas at his attempt to conquer what is today known as Korea, he is suffering from failing health. He orders the 5 warlord who serve him to his death bed. Then, he tells the 5 elders to take care of his heir: Hideyori (who was only 5 years old at the time) until he enters manhood and can rule Japan. 2 of the 5 elders at Hideyoshi's deathbed was Ieyasu Tokugawa: One of Japan's most powerful and notable warlords, and Mitusnari Ishida: One of Hideyoshi's most loyal Political Ministers. They sworn on Hideyoshi's deathbed to take care of Hideyori once he becomes an adult. But what Mitsunari nor would the other 4 elders would know is that Tokugawa will secretly make his own plans for Japan, seeing that a Japan run by his master's clan could not end Japan's long-running civil war (called the Sengoku Period) which began in the late 15th century. For 2 years, Tokugawa carefully and patiently drew out his plan, and in mid 1600, he carried out with his plan. But this would catch the attention of Mitsunari, who must stop Tokugawa at any cost.

### The Battle of Sekihgahara

On October 21, 1600 Tokugawa and Mitsunari finally met at the crossroad of all Japan, near the village of Sekigahara. They met on the morning in the valley of the mountain where the morning fog has bogged down both sides. Tokugawa's army (known as the Eastern Army) had only 50,000 men comapred to Mitsunari's Army (known as the Western Army) had around 85,000. Tokugawa's initial plan is to wait for his son: Hidetada to come to the fight (not knowing that Hidetada got himself sidetracked and a series of small battles would slow his forces down). But as the morning wore on and the fog lifted, both armies discovered that they are too close for comfort, and Tokugawa's army strikes first. The fight was brutal, and violent. But becuase the Eastern Army was outnumbered nearly 7 to 1, they at one time got themselves surrounded. In a desperate attempt to turn the tide of battle in his favor, Tokugawa orders his cannon fodders to fire on the forces led by Hideaki Kobayakawa that was situated on nearby Mt. Matsuo. This made the largely indecisive Hideaki to order his men to attack.......the Western Army, but were forced to retreat many times, before finally coming down the mountain.

It wasn't long until the warlords fighting for the Western Army turned and fought for the Eastern Army. The battle was won for the Eastern Army.

Around 3 years after the battle of Sekigahara, the Emperor of Japan granted Tokugawa the coveted title of Shogun: The supreme master of the Japanese miltary and the dealer of foreign relations in Japan. His family would rule Japan for the next 250 years after the 16th century. Japan under the Tokugawa Shogunate would see rebellions (one of them led by Hideyori) the Isolation of Japan as well as economic decline and social change. It ended after Foreign Influence and the economic decline became too much for the Shogunate.

## What if?

Now, what if Tokugawa \*LOST\* the battle of Sekigahara? What would become of Japan? Well, there are a lot of factors that would definitely be different in this alternate reality.

### The West Wins

Let's pretend that during the Battle of Sekigahara, that once the Western Army had the Eastern Army completely surrounded, they closed in and defeated the enitre Eastern Army before they had a chance at making Hideaki attack.

How would this play out? Well, the Emperor would grant Mitsunari the title of Shogun. But staying true to his word to his master: Hideyoshi. He would only hold this title for around 15 years, or until at least Hideyori reaches manhood and can rule, and Mitusinari would give up his Shogun duties to the Toyotomi family. But what both Mitsunari and eventually Hideyori would have to deal with clans that still have to pay their debt of loyalty to the Tokugawa family, justas much as the Tokugawas had to deal with rebellion in our reality. But Mitsunari and the Toyotomis would have to deal with more rebellions as Tokugawa before the Battle of Sekigahara had spread his family's influences to many areas and regions around Japan, making their job much more difficult than with the Tokugawas in our reality.

### Foreign Relations

The foreign relations of Japan would also be considerably different in this alternate reality. Though, in our reality when Japan was under the rule of the Tokugawa Shogunate, most of it's foreign policies were actually directed from the Toyotomis, but what happened is that Japanese Christians rebelled against the Shogunate for the strict rice laws and which directly led to the Shimabara Rebellion and because the Shogunate won that battle, it also directly to level up it's already strict foreign policy which is to isolate the country. Hideyoshi himself was no fan of the foriegn influence going on in Japan, but yet wanted to expand his own influence by trying (and failing) to conquer Korea. Though, in this alternate reality, Hideyori (who was given the Shogunate duties from Mitsunari) would try to succeed where his father had failed, which is to conquer Korea. But wanting to benefit from the foreign trade, Hideyori would try to continue trades with the European nations that have already traded with Japan such as The Netherlands, Portugal and Great Britain, but those countries would be under significant restrictions, though not as extreme as with the Tokugawas in our reality. But what about other countries such as France, Russia and eventually the United States? As long as they play by the Toyotomis' rules, these countries can also trade with Japan. Because of this, Japan may also evolve and industrialize much sooner than in our reality, which can also help with their economy which began to stagnate and decline by the mid-19th century and did not improve until the USA helped Japan re-open it's doors.

### The Samurai

The Samurai were Japan's ruling class as they have been since the Minamoto Shogunate in the 1100's. They live to fight and kill. So, the Samurai are basically in every aspect Japan's answer to the Knights in Europe. The Samurai in the 1600's in our reality saw a rapid decline as the Tokugawas forbade them to fight one another which was the Samurai's main purpose, also what happened on our reality is that Hideyoshi himself created Japan's society that would be what Japan meant until the mid-19th century. Even in this alternate reality, the Samurai would see a decline in their purpose as the classes which were supposed to remain separated were beginning to intermingle by the latter part of the 1600's. Very much in the same way the European Knight was also dirven to extinction. Though, what technically killed off both the Samurai and the Knight was industrialization and the standardization of firearms by the latter part of the 1700's, so in this alternate reality when Japan saw industrialization much sooner, the Samurai could've been "killed off" much sooner than it did in our reality.

### Modern Eras

#### Note: This Alternate history page now has gotten into the 20th and 21st centuries. It is possible that in this alternate reality, the Toyotomi Shogunate could last well into the 20th century as it benefited from industrialization.

If the Toyotomis still have control of Japan well into the 20th Century, it is very likely that the Shogunate would try to conquer other regions in Asia such as China and Siberia, this would still throw Japan into World War 2 and against the United States. But because Japan industrialized much sooner in this alternate reality, they would be better at building and even replacing their lost planes and ships and the Pacific Theater would drag on for either a few months or a year or 2 longer than it did in our reality.

Even with this extra time tacked on to the Pacific Theater, Japan under the Toyotomis would still feel the technological superiority of the United States as they would eventually drop the Atomic Bombs on the country. The Toyotomis would have to choice but to surrender to the USA and the other allied powers such as the Soviet Union.

Even with American Occupation, there will be much turmoil within Japan as most would question the authority of the Toyotomi family after their defeat to the USA. Though, there'll still be a lot of Japanese clans that still remain loyal to the Toyotomis, because of this Japan would spiral into a revolution similar to that seen in France and Russia. It'll be between the clans loyal to the Toyotomis and a provisional group influenced by the USA who want political reform. But becuase this provisional group was influenced by the USA it has better weapons and has a better chance of conquering Japan than those loyal to the Toyotomis.

That is all I have to say in this page. What do \*you\* think of what Japan would've been like if Tokugawa lost the Battle of Sekigahara? Until next time, this is JohnnyOTGS signing out.