Yearly THR assessment

The yearly threat, hazard, and risk (THR) assessment is a survey conducted each year by the Health Agency in Makkada. The results of the assessment are compiled into the THR report, which is made freely available to all Makkadi citizens.

## Methods

To conduct the THR assessment, Health sends over one hundred agents in strike teams of five or six across the three islands to take physical measurements of any past disasters, interview survivors, and try to determine historical risks and hazards.

Strike team members have specific roles: a team leader; a spiromancer with a specialty in knowledge magic; a geologist, often trained in Dhi; a meteorologist, often trained in Ju; and a linguist, to translate old documents and communicate with survivors who do not speak Tak. In recent years, teams have included a behavioral economist, someone who has studied how people behave during disasters, as it is often not entirely rational.

It takes about half a year to collect all the data and another half year to compile it into a report. As such, strike team members are constantly at work. One or two members of each team rotate provinces by year, so strike teams have some expertise and fresh viewpoints each time.

## Results

The most recent yearly report analyzed each province separately.

### Amakka

#### Province

Amakka is one of the smaller provinces by size but the third largest by population, with approximately seven million full-time inhabitants. Almost half of them live in the city of Makkar, the largest in Amakka, and the rest live in the surrounding countryside or in the smaller cities of Tib and Eissan. The province borders the pine straight, and much of its economy is based on internal trading between Umay and Assa. The climate is warm and dry year round, with a short but terrestrial rainy season. Its water infrastructure is in some places lacking.

Literacy is between 90% and 95% and Tak fluency is between 75% and 80%. The population skews older, though there has been a recent influx of 16- to 25-year-olds. Few people are not vouched for by a clan, family, or other institution and in a disaster, most of the elderly and disabled population has someone they can rely on if need be. All cities score well on scores of social trust and cohesion. The largest temples in the cities double as shelters and food distribution centers and their locations are well known. However, most could have improved resiliency from floods and hail.

The province has robust hospital infrastructure, with 1.5 beds per 1,000 citizens in public and private hospitals combined and the ability to expand to 3.4 beds per 1,000 in three decans when necessary. They have mutual aid agreements in place with neighboring provinces to supply healthcare workers, spiromancers, search and rescue professionals, and funerary services in case of a catastrophic disaster. The province's emergency operations plans are up to date, though they lack an adequate evacuation plan.

#### Disaster History

In 140 SE, the Sumee flood swept away almost one thousand houses in low lying areas, killing at least five hundred and leaving thousands without safe shelter for months.

In 134 SE, torrential hail damaged tens of thousands of roofs and killed three. The subsequent ice made it difficult for repair teams to respond.

The 36 SE Mainfay Earthquake devastated the region, destroying hundreds of thousands of houses and killing tens of thousands of people. Most survivors remained without water for a year and a half afterwards.

#### Anticipated Future Disasters

High risk: storm, flood, drought, hail, wind

Medium risk: heat wave, wildfire, dust storms

Low risk: earthquake, volcanism, landslide, tornadoes, hurricanes

### Qurakka

#### Province

With 12 million full time residents, Qurakka has the largest population of the nine provinces. It has four large, thriving cities: Yamid, Sali, Arëna, and Qurash, the capital. Its economy relies on farming, salt collection, information services, and trade.

After the sacking by Kuan-Seprum forces, much of Qurakka had the opportunity to rebuild with a renewed focus on defense and preparedness. Its literacy rates are 95% or higher, and most people are at least passingly fluent in Tak. Qurash especially—sometimes called the city of ten thousand temples—has surplus social support, including places for people to shelter, wash, access clean water, and eat.

Though a member of many mutual aid agreements, Qurakka's hospital system and infrastructure is resilient against disaster and generally provides resources to the other provinces.

#### Disaster History

25 SE: a Kuan-Seprum army arrives in Makkada. They sack numerous cities and kill tens of thousands of civilians.

33 SE: a brutal hurricane season leaves thousands of houses without roofs and forces tens of thousands to sleep on temple floors until bedding can be procured.

34 SE: an attempted rebellion is put down by the sultan with help from Kuan and Seprum soldiers.

40 SE: wind strips roofs off houses and injures dozens.

#### Anticipated Future Disasters

High risk: hurricanes, flood, storm

Medium risk: heat wave, landslide, hail, wind

Low risk: earthquake, drought, wildfire, volcanism, tornadoes, dust storms

### Udamai

#### Province

Udamai is the largest province in Makkada, home to eight million full time inhabitants. Half live the regions largest cities: Damai, Tefani, Zjani, and Uda. The town of Ruatla has a substantial non-native population and a half legion of Kuan-Seprum soldiers in case of outside unrest.

A third of the province is occupied by the Efrit Range, which is cold and dry, treacherous territory that is mostly unexplored. The largest peak is Mt. Galzjan, which is also a semi-active volcano. The mountain range cuts off communication and transportation in the region.

In the cities, literacy is high, but the rural areas, especially in the west and north, have lower rates, in the 70% to 80% range. Populations in these areas also speak rarer languages and dialects and may have difficulty understanding evacuation orders and other advice given in Tak. Mistrust of city-dwellers can be quite high in some of the more mountainous towns, and on many occasions, people in these areas have refused outside help during a disaster.

The province economy is based on mining and trade with countries outside the Spiral Empire. Almost 85% of the population, however, are farmers. Much of the ground is not terribly fertile and without support from other provinces, famine would always be a risk. Natives to the Udamai province report high levels of distrust to outsiders and often report feeling disrespected by other provinces.

#### Disaster History

Mt. Galzjan last violently erupted c. 245 PS, killing tens of thousands in nearby villages and towns and causing a famine in all of Makkada.

41 SE: a landslide cuts off a larger town from communication and help. When rescue workers arrive, two hundred had died.

42 SE: a destructive wildfire season forces much of Uda to evacuate.

51 SE: social unrest in Ruatla leads to a mob and stampede. Kuan and Seprum troops kill thirteen and capture twenty-five for execution later.

#### Anticipated Future Disasters

High risk: earthquake, volcanism, landslide

Medium risk: storm, drought, tornadoes, dust storms, hail, wind

Low risk: flood, heat wave, hurricane