2015 TFC Global Mobile Game Conference

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为期两天的2015第十届TFC全球移动游戏大会已于17日国际会议中心盛大开幕。在18日上午举行的TFC上道移动游戏创业与投资高峰论坛上，斯凯投资合伙人栾威带来了主题为摒弃浮华手游创业者的生存之道的精彩演讲。栾威认为，小众游戏很多人不愿意做，认为不挣钱，用户少，其实恰恰因为它是小众游戏，它够垂直，够细分，它的用户很容易就能找到，会有很多比较特殊的渠道，是大众游戏不做的渠道，你获取的成本会低，用户会忠实。无论是游戏还是其它的创业者，成本意识与韧性很重要，这是成功最关键的地方。
The two-day 10th TFC Global Mobile Game Conference in 2015 opened grandly at the International Conference Center on the 17th. At the TFC Mobile Game Entrepreneurship and Investment Summit held on the morning of the 18th, Sky9 Capital partner Luan Wei delivered a fascinating speech on the theme of "The Survival Way of Mobile Game Entrepreneurs Abandoning Extravagance." Luan Wei believes that many people are unwilling to work on niche games, thinking they are not profitable and have few users. In fact, precisely because it is a niche game, it is vertical enough and segmented enough. Its users can easily be found, and there will be many special channels that mainstream games do not explore. The acquisition cost will be lower, and users will be loyal. Whether it's games or other entrepreneurs, cost consciousness and resilience are crucial, which is the most critical aspect of success.

斯凯投资是在斯凯2011年上市之后才成立的，行业内的同志们都了解，斯凯是比较早的在游戏上赚到钱的公司，当大家都不挣钱的时候，它挣钱了。在上市之后，我们考虑轻度游戏收入还不错，认为移动游戏从2000年开始一直到2011年都没有爆发，在后面应该会有个爆发的阶段，所以，我们成立了一个基金，决定主要投移动游戏方面。还算比较幸运吧，赶上了黄金的这几年。斯凯这几年在本身游戏业务上并没有太多的进展，但好在搭上了一班投资的车，在投资上，还是获得了一些收益。这两年大概投了30来个游戏和游戏相关的企业。斯凯投资的企业存活率是蛮高的，现在大概30个游戏企业里只有2个被清算掉了，其它的20多个活的都蛮好，在存活的成功率大概有90%多。所以，我讲讲我们认为什么样的公司能活下来，我认为这个比较接地气。
Sky9 Capital was established after Sky9 went public in 2011. Those in the industry understand that Sky9 was one of the early companies to make money in the gaming industry. When everyone else was not making money, it was profitable. After going public, we considered that the revenue from casual games was quite good, and we believed that there would be a phase of explosive growth in mobile games from 2000 to 2011. So, we set up a fund and decided to focus on mobile games. Fortunately, we caught the golden years. In recent years, Sky9 has not made much progress in its core gaming business, but luckily, we hopped on the investment bandwagon. In terms of investments, we have still made some gains. Over the past two years, we have invested in around 30 game-related companies. The survival rate of companies invested in by Sky9 Capital is quite high. Currently, out of approximately 30 game companies, only 2 have been liquidated, and the others are doing quite well. The success rate of those still in operation is probably over 90%. So, I will talk about what kind of companies we think can survive, and I believe this is more down-to-earth.

说存活和创业就不能不说大环境，2014年的大环境可以用一个词来形容，叫冰火两重天。2014年，从整体的移动游戏的盘子上来讲，大概290亿上下，其实已经比前面的几年要成长很多了，实际上有很多人在里面挣到钱了，因为它的盘子足够大。从整个投资并购的环境来讲，其实也是非常火热的，有很多创富的奇迹。很多人出来创业，看到的是有这么多企业在这个领域里，做了一年、两年、三年，就从零到几亿、十几亿、几十亿，其实这是最激励创业者的。
When we talk about survival and entrepreneurship, we cannot ignore the overall environment. The environment in 2014 can be described in one word: "contrasting." In 2014, speaking about the mobile gaming industry as a whole, it was approximately around 29 billion in terms of market size, which was a significant growth compared to previous years. Many people actually made money in this industry because the market was substantial. Looking at the overall investment and acquisition environment, it was also very hot, with many wealth-creation miracles happening. Many people ventured into entrepreneurship, and what they saw was the numerous companies in this field going from zero to millions, tens of millions, or even billions in just one, two, or three years, which was incredibly inspiring for entrepreneurs.

到底怎么样才能真正活下去？我认为，现在的创业者想的相对比较少，更多的是看到了这些，比较冲动，或者相对盲目地冲到这个行业里。
But how can one truly survive in this industry? I believe that many entrepreneurs today tend to think relatively less and are more impulsive when they see these success stories or blindly rush into this industry.

到了年底有很多言论，从导向上，都会认为去年整体的游戏泡沫蛮大的，是不是小团队，或者中小团队活不下去了，产品的存活率是不是极低？这些言论很多，本身我干这个的，朋友在一起会经常问，比较多的问题是游戏还能投吗？或者你们基金游戏为主，明年怎么办？现在大家能看到的都是前面所谓的浮华，各种代言，大明星都出来代言游戏。各种IP，原来是几十万的IP，现在不说一千万的游戏，基本上这游戏没法玩。这是一个集团军作战，这时候小团队怎么办？因为我们投的都是十几人、甚至几个人的团队，作为早期投资，也不会投很多，怎么跟这些大团队拼，这也是我们思考的。游戏肯定是能投资的，之前的泡沫是被资本砸出来的，泡沫清了之后，剩下的还是啤酒。所以，行业把泡沫清除掉，在最高速增长的这块，变成一个良性增长，其实是行业走入良性的一个标志，而并不是行业不行的标志。
Towards the end of the year, there were many opinions suggesting that there was a significant gaming bubble in the industry. People wondered whether small or medium-sized teams could survive, and whether the survival rate of products was extremely low. As someone involved in this field, I would often hear these questions from friends. The most common questions were, "Is it still a good idea to invest in games?" or "Your fund focuses on games, what's the plan for next year?" Right now, what everyone can see is the ostentatious side of the industry, with various endorsements and big celebrities endorsing games. There are all sorts of intellectual properties (IP) as well. What used to be IPs worth a few hundred thousand dollars have now become games that cost tens of millions to produce. It's like a large-scale military operation. So, what can small teams do in such an environment? Because we invest in teams of a dozen or even just a few people as early-stage investors, we can't compete head-on with these big teams. This is also something we're pondering. Games can definitely still be invested in. The previous bubble was inflated by capital, and after the bubble burst, what remained was real value. So, when the industry clears away the bubble and transitions to a more stable growth phase, it's actually a sign of the industry moving towards healthier growth, not an indication that the industry is failing.

并购这件事，大家认为之前的并购很火爆，未来并购的机会可能会变少，实际上这是中国的资本市场的问题，中国资本市场的出口比较少，这两年才开始产生并购这件事，其实未来并购将是个常态，未来会有更多的公司通过并购做转型，通过并购来做规划，或者通过并购来保持业绩的高速增长。所以，并购是永远会存在的。从我们的角度来看，移动游戏行业会越来越良性，而且会保持增长，它不可能永远每年增长100%，增长200%，但是每年增长 40%到50%，最起码还能维持两到三年。
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is something that many believe was quite hot in the past, and they anticipate that M&A opportunities may become scarcer in the future. In reality, this is a matter related to China's capital market. China's capital market had relatively fewer exits in the past, and it's only in the last couple of years that M&A has started gaining momentum. In fact, M&A is expected to become a norm in the future. More companies will likely use M&A for transformation, strategic planning, or to sustain high growth rates. So, M&A will always exist. From our perspective, the mobile gaming industry will become more stable and will continue to grow. It may not grow by 100% or 200% every year, but it can at least maintain a growth rate of 40% to 50% for two to three years.

什么样的企业是我们能投的，或者什么样的企业跟大家伙搏斗中有可能生存并有可能发展的？第一，细分和创新是小团队的终极武器。大的游戏既耗人又耗资源，还要有IP，而且很难把它做出花来。细分领域，其实是留给了小团队一个非常好的领域。《崩坏学园2》有多少是它的玩家，大概4个人举手，这说明它是一个小众游戏。小众游戏很多人不愿意做，认为不挣钱，用户少，其实恰恰因为它是小众游戏，它够垂直，够细分，它的用户很容易就能找到，会有很多比较特殊的渠道，是大众游戏不做的渠道，你获取的成本会低，用户会忠实。为什么要细分和创新？因为有很多成功案例。
What kind of companies can we invest in, or what kind of companies have the potential to survive and thrive in the competitive landscape? Firstly, specialization and innovation are the ultimate weapons for small teams. Large games require a lot of manpower and resources, and they often need established intellectual properties (IPs), making it difficult for smaller teams to compete on that front. Specialized niches actually provide an excellent field for small teams. For instance, how many people here have played *Houkai Gakuen 2*? Probably only a few. This indicates that it's a niche game. Many people are hesitant to work on niche games, thinking they may not be profitable and have a small user base. However, it's precisely because they are niche games that they are vertical and highly segmented. Their users can be easily reached, and there are many specialized channels available, which big games don't explore. The acquisition cost is lower, and users tend to be loyal. Why specialize and innovate? Because there are many success stories in this area.

《战剑》是最近很火的游戏，但是它的题材是蛮小众的，而且我认为在座的人玩这个游戏的并不见得比玩《崩坏》的人多。《疯狂点击》有多少人知道这个游戏，大概有7%，这个游戏在国外非常非常火，而且玩过的人肯定都知道，它的玩法非常简单，而且非常特殊，它不像一个游戏，但它真的是一个好游戏，无论是画面和数值，都做的非常好。这种创新的游戏，永远是有生命的，只要你真正坚持下去，能在细分领域做深、做创新。《天天挂机》其实也是一个奇葩游戏，所有人看到这个游戏的时候，尤其是渠道，都会觉得这个游戏能发吗？这个游戏是不是太小众了，会赚钱吗？从我了解，这四个游戏在赚钱上，都是非常非常的利器。所以，如果你要创业，你想创业，不要跟大家伙搏斗，要去跟那些大平台、大CP去斗，就算跟它的品质一样，都做不过他，因为你没有资源。但是，细分领域是一个未来一定会涌现出很多创业公司能有斩获的地方。你一定要是这个细分领域里真正的玩家，真正的爱好者，包括我投的这个团队，投的时候4个人，他们都没有做过游戏，创始人永远跟我讲，他不是做游戏的，说他们做的是二次元产品。做游戏的时候，是逆向的，而是把游戏做成了IP，然后拿IP做动漫，做影视，我认为他们是真正的二次元里面的死忠。
*Zhan Swords* is a recent hit game, but its theme is quite niche, and I believe that not necessarily more people in the audience are playing it compared to *Honkai*. How many people know about *Tap Titans*? Probably about 7%. This game is extremely popular overseas, and those who have played it surely know that it offers a very simple yet unique gameplay experience. It doesn't look like a typical game, but it truly is a great game, excelling in both visuals and mechanics. Innovative games like this will always have a life as long as you persist and innovate within a specialized niche. *Tiantian Guaji* is also an unusual game. When everyone, especially in the distribution channels, sees this game, they might wonder if it can succeed. Is it too niche? Can it make money? From what I know, these four games are all highly effective money-making tools. So, if you want to start a business, don't compete with the giants. Instead, challenge the big platforms and content providers (CP). Even if your quality matches theirs, you won't surpass them because you lack their resources. However, specialized niches are where many entrepreneurial companies can find opportunities. You must be a true enthusiast and player within that niche. For example, the team I invested in consisted of four people, none of whom had prior game development experience. The founder always told me he wasn't in the gaming industry; he said they were making products for the otaku culture (a subculture in Japan). They approached game development from a reverse perspective, turning games into IPs and then expanding into anime and film. I believe they are true devotees of the otaku culture.

你要拥有一些相对特殊的资源和相对特殊的能力，我举这个例子，尖游互动，这是一个上海的公司，不是很有名，但边上这个游戏还是有很多人知道的，《卡牌盟兽》，它在春节期间连续两周被苹果在首页最大的LOGO推荐，这是一个跑酷的休闲游戏，我为什么会举这个例子？我们去芬兰谈一些产品和孵化器的合作，到那儿我碰到一个人，这个人不是做游戏的，他是瑞典世界五百强公司里的一个销售，他是一个华人，在北欧常驻了三到四年，他是一个对北欧文化非常了解的人。当时我们一起去见一些CP，会发现他不像一个中国人。我跟芬兰人交流，有很多理念是不一样的，芬兰人很客气，但他不会真正的跟你交流。但他跟芬兰人聊天的时候，跟你聊的是不一样的，而且很容易取得信任，这是个人才，他拥有最独特的东西，就是他了解北欧文化，而且他对游戏有兴趣。我天使投他，现在芬兰成了他的大后方。像《卡牌盟兽》这个级别的游戏，他签了7个，一共投入不到300万人民币，这个游戏现在月流水已经超过我说的这个数了，但是安卓还没上，只在苹果上了一个月。什么是独特资源，我认为这个创业者就拥有他的独特资源。他能够跟一个特殊市场产生共鸣，产生信任，他就能拿到很多别人拿不到的资源，或者很低成本能拿到。其他人要创业，要想清楚自己是不是有特殊的资源，在某方面有特殊的能力，如果要创业，就要紧紧围绕着特殊资源和特殊能力。
You must possess relatively unique resources and capabilities. Let me give you an example: TipWorks Interactive, a company in Shanghai, may not be very well-known, but people are familiar with its game, *Monsu*. During the Chinese New Year period, Apple featured this casual running game with continuous two-week promotion on its homepage, which is a significant achievement. Why do I bring up this example? We went to Finland for some product discussions and collaboration with an incubator. During our visit, I met someone who was not in the gaming industry; he worked in sales for a Swedish Fortune 500 company. He was a Chinese national who had been based in Northern Europe for three to four years and had an in-depth understanding of Nordic culture. When we met some content providers (CPs) together, you could see he didn't come across as a typical Chinese person. When I interacted with Finns, there were many differences in terms of ideas. Finns are polite but not very communicative, yet when he spoke to them, it was different, and he quickly gained their trust. He possessed a unique talent: he understood Nordic culture and had an interest in games. I made an angel investment in him, and now Finland has become his major base of operations. He has signed seven games at the level of *Monsu*, investing less than 3 million RMB in total. The monthly revenue of this game has already exceeded the number I mentioned, and it's only been on iOS for a month. What is a unique resource? I believe this entrepreneur has his unique resources. He can resonate with a specific market, gain trust, and access resources that others can't or can access at a lower cost. For those considering entrepreneurship, it's essential to clarify whether you possess unique resources or unique abilities in some area. If you want to start a business, focus closely on these unique resources and capabilities.

无论是游戏还是其它的创业者，成本意识与韧性很重要，这是成功最关键的地方。有句话“不要控制失败的风险而应控制失败的成本”，在游戏行业更是这样，因为风险是没有人能控制的。比如我们投了做《星际恋人》，我们认为他做的不错，而且有创新，结果等他产品出来了，腾讯的上线了，这个产品就没有我们预期的好，因为你不知道腾讯会在若干个月之后会上什么产品，但是，我能控制的是成本。钱少花，这个产品只要没火就做下一个，只要有钱就能永远做产品，这是所有创业团队要看到的。因为游戏只要做的多，早晚会有机会，做的少就是赌博。
Whether in the gaming industry or any other entrepreneurial endeavor, cost consciousness and resilience are crucial. This is the most critical aspect of success. There's a saying, "Don't control the risk of failure, control the cost of failure," and this is especially true in the gaming industry because risks are unpredictable. For instance, when we invested in *Xingji Lianren*, we believed it was a good project with innovation. However, once the product was launched and Tencent introduced a competing product, it didn't perform as expected. You can't control the risks, but what you can control is the cost. Spend less money, and if one product doesn't take off, move on to the next one as long as you have the funds. With money, you can keep making products indefinitely. This is something all entrepreneurial teams should keep in mind because in the gaming industry, making more games increases your chances of success, while making fewer is akin to gambling.

米哈游，我投的时候4个人，到《崩坏2》上线的时候120个人，每个人各司其职，去磨产品，《崩坏1》靠广告，反而增长了，我觉得这个就是韧性，就是成本控制，如果这两点做不好，很难成功。
miHoYo, for example, had only four people when I invested in them. By the time *Houkai Gakuen 2* launched, they had grown to 120 people, each person handling their responsibilities to refine the product. *Houkai Gakuen* relied on advertising and saw growth as a result. I believe this is all about resilience and cost control. If these two aspects aren't managed well, success becomes challenging.

我说的太现实了，但是未来是光明的，我希望大家更多的还是来创业，因为游戏行业，永远是一个能够展示个人魅力，能够把兴趣跟收入结合的非常好的行业。如果你要愿意创业，可以来找我投钱，我们一般不会投特别高大上的团队，因为那种团队不缺钱，也不缺人投。我们会投一些相对比较草根，然后有一定经验，并没有那么突出的团队，我认为他们更有韧性，更能够野蛮生长。我只投雪中送炭，我不投锦上添花。谢谢大家!
I might be speaking too realistically, but the future is bright. I hope that many of you will venture into entrepreneurship because the gaming industry is a fantastic platform to showcase personal charisma and combine your interests with income. If you are willing to start a business, you can come to me for investment. We typically don't invest in highly established teams because they don't lack funds or investors. We prefer to invest in grassroots teams with some experience but not exceptionally outstanding, as I believe they have more resilience and the potential for rapid growth. I invest to provide essential support, not to add to what's already successful. Thank you, everyone!