2018 Power Rankings-Week 12

## Introduction

If there were any questions regarding who the teams to beat were in the 2018 Festival of Champions, week 11 might have answered those questions. Three teams (P9, GBM, and B4Y) had dominating performances. While this can mainly be attributed to the slugfest on MNF, it's impossible to discount:

* 88.43 combined points from E.Elliot and P.Lindsay for GBM in low scoring games.
* Flex-level talent like Tre'Quan Smith and Kenny Golladay combining for 71.80 to help out Browns4You.
* Barkley scoring over 30 points for the 7th time this season for Paddock 9.

As crazy as these performances were, P9 and B4Y have work to do. Neither team can afford to lose out, or risk being overtaken by The Shotti Bunch.

Elsewhere, we say goodbye to three teams' Glory Bowl aspirations.

Through 2016, teams scoring over 220 points won 80% of the time (229-57 record or 0.801). This season, RIPDab is averaging 220.94 points per game, but is just 3-8 (0.273). Prior to this season, the closest 3-8 or worse team to RIPDab in terms of scoring was Sweet Dee’s 2013 2-9 team, which scored 2146.12 through 11 weeks. Dab has 2430.38 points. It's a sad year for Dab, but it's an Even Year. What can you do but tip your cap to the Fantasy Gods?

MMMS might have never had much of a shot after trading away the majority of their talent, but the Cooper Kupp injury sealed the deal. They're the leagues second worst scoring team, having not broken 200 since a backbreaking 246-249 loss to The Shotti Bunch sent momma into a tailspin. They join Paddock 9 as the only other team to miss the playoffs in three consecutive seasons.

Bell of Da Ball could have had it all. We'll never truly know what this team could have accomplished with Le'Veon Bell, but James Connor has had a comparable season for the Steelers and as much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure what a difference it would make. Ball is scoring very well. The problem is they're on pace to smash the record for "most points against in a single season." Brutal schedule to be handed upon a rebuild.

Now that the miracle stories have been extinguished, we turn to this: five teams vying for four remaining spots in the Festival of Champions.

## The 300-Point Club

This week we induct Paddock 9 into the 300-point club with the league's 18th 300+ point game. He is the 9th team to land himself on the list. All active teams who have played more than 2 seasons now sit on the list, which is a nice way of saying everyone but Bell of Da Ball.

Club Members:

Paddock 9's score was good for 3rd all time, just a point behind Pain Train's 2017 playoff performance for 2nd all time. They did post the second-largest margin of victory of all-time in the process.

Not to be outdone, Garoppoblow Me became the first team ever to score over 300 points four times. This 19th 300+ point game made week 11 the first time ever that two teams broke the unbeatable threshold on the same week.

GBM has now broken 300 twice this season. This is the second time they've done this, having broken 300 twice during their phenomenal 10-3 campaign back in 2015.

## The Shitty Bunch?

Shotti is currently on the worst stretch of his LOC career. Prior to this season, The Shotti Bunch had never (yes, NEVER) scored back-to-back games **below** 200. Let that sink in. Well, actually, maybe you need a stat chart to let it sink in. Here's the list of every teams longest streak of sub-200 point games.

List of Consecutive games under 200 by Team

These are just the longest streaks. Plenty of these teams have had smaller streaks of 3-5 games multiple times. You'll notice Shotti at the bottom, who didn't even exist on this chart until two weeks ago. Also notable, Paddock 9 started the League of Champions by failing to break 200 for an entire season back in 2011. Laughably bad season for Paddock.

But the worst part about this streak for TSB is that he hasn't won a game. It's the longest ever losing streak for The Shotti Bunch and means that he will fail to win four straight for just the second time.

But this stretch is merely a microcosm of his season. Shotti ranks dead last in scoring this year and will undoubtably finish with his worst scoring season in franchise history.

Despite all that, they sit just one game back from a playoff spot. With no chance at a scoring tie-breaker, they'll need to win out and get some help from either Sweet Dee, Paddock 9, or Brown4You. If he goes 2-0 and any one of those teams goes 0-2, he's in. Is it that far fetched?

## Survivor

Congrats to Pick or Die for winning this year's Survivor! Week 11 is definitely the longest I've ever seen a Survivor go. It should have gone longer, but I completely overthought my pick. I left Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and KC on the board. I ended up taking the Panthers, who went for two instead of the chance to tie with a field goal. Rough way to go. Pick or Die chose Houston, who squeaked out a win in a wild game that saw Alex Smith's leg turn to jelly. Hard fought battle and a great choice for PoD. Now Pick or Die will get to Pick (or die) his first three opponents of 2019. I hope the decision doesn't weigh him down this off-season.

Whoever he is...

## Playoffs

Mathematically, six teams are still alive for the two bye spots, although GBM's point total will make it difficult for anyone beyond Papa's Posse to knock him out of one of the first two seeds.

### Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. These take into account scoring differentials between Pain Train/GBM and the rest of the league, hence PT needing 2 wins to guarantee finishing in the top 2, while GBM only needs 1.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

### Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Twelve Scenarios

* Garoppoblow Me clinches a bye with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by Pain Train WOO WOO and Papa's Posse
* Pain Train WOO WOO clinches a bye with:
	+ **Win** *and* **loss** by Papa's Posse
* Browns4You clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by The Shotti Bunch
* Paddock 9 clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by The Shotti Bunch
* Sweet Dee clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by The Shotti Bunch
* The Shotti Bunch will be eliminated with:
	+ **Loss** *or*
	+ **Win**by Sweet Dee, Paddock 9, & Browns4You

## Power Rankings

Not much this week due to a lack of time. Yeah, I know, I'm done with my job so I should be free. Great timing though because now there's just my flight to Wisconsin in three hours, then as soon as I get back next week I go to NYC, then after that it's the playoffs. So this regular season was a bust in terms of content, I'll grant you that. Shit timing.

### 1(1). Garoppoblow Me

This team is pretty fucking good. GBM joins Shotti as the only two teams to be in first place for 20 weeks of the regular season. Combined, they've been in first place for 43 weeks or 42% of the LOC regular season.

### 2(3). WhatCanBrownsDo4You?

With a win over Bell of da Ball, Browns4You moves to 4-0 lifetime against the rebuilding franchise. This is a record fourth time that B4Y has started 4-0 against a team in the regular season. They’ve previously started 4-0 against momma, Pain Train, and JarJar. Third place is up for grabs this week as they battle 7-4 Papa's Posse.

### 3(2). Pain Train WOO WOO

Pain Train has moved ahead of RIPDab on the regular season win list and now sits in third place all-time. They've had the easiest strength of schedule by far this season, and since their last two games are against 6-5 teams who notoriously choke in late November,  I have no reason to believe they won't slither their way to the one-seed.

### 4(6). Paddock 9

Now that the bye weeks have mostly ended for P9, we finally got a glimpse of the playoff team that we could be seeing in two weeks time. First thing's first, as one more bye hurdle remains. They have to take care of business in week twelve down Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, with league spoiler Bell of Da Ball coming into town.

### 5(5). Papa's Posse

This is Papa’s 4th 7-win season. They’ve never reached 8 wins but they’ve made playoffs each of the last three times they hit 7-6, including their 2011 championship run. This current team is outpacing that 2011 squad in points per week and it is earliest in a season they've ever hit the 7-win mark.

### 6(4). Sweet Dee

Sweet Dee became the fastest team to 50 regular season losses this week, as they couldn't complete the double-header sweet of Garoppoblow Me. They are 4-5 lifetime against that team, with a potential Festival of Champions matchup pending if they both take care of business in the closing weeks. Sweet Dee is the most at risk of a Shotti surge, as they face the toughest remaining schedule and have the lowest point total of the 6-5 teams.

### 7(7). RIPDab

RIPDab has already seen almost 300 more points scored against than their 2017 team saw and are on pace to break the record for most points against in a regular season. I can't tell if it's going to be sad or beautiful when Shotti and RIP meet in the 2018 Heart and Soul Bowl. I think beautiful.

### 8(9). Bell of da Ball

I'm so unsure of this team. You want to say they're bad, but their last two losses have been at the hands of a team taht scored 268 and another that scored 291. While they couldn't have beaten any of the big three this week, they would have beaten five other teams, including Papa's Posse. Like RIPDab, they just got fucked.

### 9(10). ma ma momma said

The New York Jets of this season. There's just not really much to talk about.

### 10(8). The Shotti Bunch

Decimated by injury, The Shotti Bunch's three season reign atop the regular season has come to a close. AJ Green, Dalvin Cook, Marvin Jones JR. Three guys who were keys to the offense, all missed or missing multiple games. The depth just wasn't there to compensate. If they can win out, anything is possible in the Festival of Champions. But it's looking more and more likely that a team that has made it to six straight Festival semifinals rounds and four Glory Bowls might be making their debut in the consolation tournamant.

## Matchups of the Week

Last week produced a lot of high scoring games, but nothing exciting in terms of who would be winning. In fact, despite the excitement of MNF's 100-point bonanza, none of the five games hung in the balance. It was the first time this season that all ten of us could just watch a game without any stress (besides the obvious "please don't get injured" stress that comes with watching your guys play).

(3rd) Papa's Posse vs. (4th) Browns4You (GAME OF THE WEEK)

* Record: 7-7
* Significance: Browns4You clinches playoff spot with a win. Papa clinches best ever franchise record with win. Papa locks in top 5 spot with win. Rematch of Glory Bowl 1 (PP win).
* Current Projection: 212.96-213.18 (B4Y)

(1st) GBM vs. (8th) RIPDab

* Record: 10-6 (GBM)
* Significance: GBM can clinch 1st round bye with a win. Rematch of week one (GBM win).

(10th) MMMS vs. (7th) TSB

* Record: 7-6 (MMMS)
* Significance: Shotti eliminated with loss. Two-Time Festival Semifinals rematch (MMMS 2-0)/Glory Bowl V rematch (TSB 1-0).

(5th) Paddock 9 vs. (9th) Bell of da Ball

* Record: 2-1 (Bell)
* Significance: P9 clinches a playoff berth with a win. Rematch of week six (P9 win).

(2nd) Pain Train vs. (6th) Sweet Dee

* Record: 7-4 (PT)
* Significance: Pain Train clinches a bye with a win. Sweet Dee clinches a playoff berth with a win.