GM/Polls

General Media occasionally conducts polls for news-related information as to how well various officials are faring according to the populace and how people stand on various issues.

## 10.15.12 Poll

16 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate.

Note: Nathan Maine was excluded from the ending poll results and also did not participate in the survey due to how new he is to the Union.

* **The Triumvirate as a Whole:** 71.88%
* **The PEACE Act:** 63.75%
* **The GUARD Act:** 65.63%
* **Progressive Party:** 57.5%
* **Establishment Party:** 57.5%
* **Union Party:** 61.88%
* **Major Executive and Head of Commerce and Industry Stavrok:** 68.67%
* **Minor Executive and Chief Ambassador Ehtya:** 82%
* **Chief Attorney Arnold Ogamon:** 66%
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 48%
* **Head of Research Mitar Curesse:** 38%
* **Head of the Treasury Andrew Hester:** 60%
* **Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl:** 53.33%
* **Deputy Speaker Nremni:** 52%
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 66.67%

#### Most Favored/Least Favored

Each person polled was allowed to name two most favored, and two least favored individuals out of any Triumvirate citizen.

**Most Favored:**

* 62.5% named Minor Executive Ehtya as one of their most favored
* 50% named Major Executive Stavrok as one of their most favored
* 50% named Arnold Ogamon as one of their most favored
* 18.75% named Andrew Hester as one of their most favored

(Those with less than 15% ommitted)

**Least Favored:**

* 58.06% named James Schay as one of their least favored
* 32.26% named Mitar Curesse as one of their least favored
* 25.81% named Speaker Andrew Mearl as one of their least favored
* 19.35% named Deputy Speaker Nremni as one of their least favored
* 19.35% named Ascencia as one of their least favored

(Those with less than 15% ommitted)

#### Analysis

There are three big things to draw from this particular set of polls:

**1. The Progressive and Establishment Parties are essentially tied.**

We can say this because both, against all odds, had the exact same approval rating of 57.5%. Also, both of their famous laws, the PEACE Act for Progressive and the GUARD Act for Establishment are practically tied as well (around 64% approval for both). While Major Executive Stavrok does have a slightly higher approval rating than Arnold Ogamon at the moment, Mitar Curesse's extremely poor score offsets that. The rating of each of the two Speakers of the Administrative Branch (Mearl and Nremni) are also very close (53.33% and 52%). Progressive champion Stavrok is completely ried with Establishment champion Ogamon as for most favored, but some of Ogamon's support may come from his background and appreciation for that.

**2. Among Executives, though the political power belongs to Ogamon and Stavrok, the Union Party is quietly gaining a lead**

If you look at the relative approval ratings, the Union Party is more favored over the two other political parties, and while this is expected due to it being the most moderate therefore drawing support from members of both Progressive and Establishment alike, it reflects a significant political issue: the Union Party is relatively unchallenged and will come to dominate if this remains. This will likely fix itself as the Union Party will rise to the spotlight if it remains unchallenged and as such will draw challenge, perhaps spawning a fourth political party. The members of the Union Party are not despised by either of the other two political parties which is what gives their members relatively good approval ratings.

**3. Public Activity Matters**

The two lowest rated members of the Executive Branch are the ones who are the least publically active, neither Ascencia nor Mitar Curesse have ever given a public speech or statement (besides Ascencia's statements in court, but those are likely hurting his score). The three highest rated are extremely public: Ehtya is considered a voice for the people in the Executive Branch and a war hero by many, Arnold Ogamon was the frontman for the Triumvirate for an entire year and continues to be vocal in his opposition to the current Major Executive, Stavrok is the Major Executive and has presented speeches and frequently speaks with almost everyone. Andrew Hester is in the middle, he does have some public events like a few speeches, but he's not as close with individuals as Stavrok or Ehtya are, that is not necessarily a bad thing though. Hester was given high scores by other Executives, where he lost points was how people, especially those in the Adminsitrative Branch (many of whom have never met him), viewed him.

Being in the spotlight means more support for now, but a balance needs to be maintained. Considering that Ehtya's 82% approval would be down by an estimated 15-20% were it not for the events of the Countdown Crisis, he can be considered an outlier in looking at this. It looks like Stavrok's balance of it is almost perfect, he is public enough that people know him and feel like he is approachable and friendly, but he still maintains the respect in the Executive Branch that is necessary for him to push his policies. Ogamon is close to Stavrok but where he may be losing points is that he doesn't have as much influence over the Executive Branch anymore, he's riding on public support and his past record, not current initiatives. Hester is also getting up there, and while he's very active and successful in the Executive Branch, he doesn't have the same touch with the people that Stavrok or Ogamon do which is where he's lost points. Ascencia and Curesse lack both support from the public and political power which is why they are below a 5.

## 12.4.12 Poll

18 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

Note: Brady Becker was excluded from the ending poll results and also did not participate in the survey due to how new he is to the Union.

* **The Triumvirate as a Whole:** 68.33% (-3.6%)
* **The Tax Code:** 57.22% (N/A)
* **The Supreme Court:** 66.67% (N/A)
* **Progressive Party:** 60.00% (+2.5%)
* **Establishment Party:** 57.78% (+0.3%)
* **Union Party:** 62.78% (+0.9%)
* **Major Executive and Head of Commerce and Industry Stavrok:** 55.29% (-13.14%)
* **Minor Executive and Chief Ambassador Ehtya:** 84.12% (+2.1%)
* **Chief Attorney Arnold Ogamon:** 52.29% (-13.1%)
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 47.65% (-0.4%)
* **Head of Research Mitar Curesse:** 29.41% (-8.6%)
* **Head of the Treasury Andrew Hester:** 54.71% (-5.3%)
* **Head of Education Nathan Maine:** 67.65% (N/A)
* **Administrative Liaison Elliot Neil:** 54.12% (N/A)
* **Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl:** 64.12% (+10.8%)
* **Deputy Speaker Nremni:** 46.47% (-5.5%)
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 68.24% (+1.5%)

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 55.70% (-4.7%)

#### Most Favored/Least Favored

Each person polled was allowed to name two most favored, and two least favored individuals out of any Triumvirate citizen.

**Most Favored:**

* 50% named Ehtya as one of their most favored
* 44.44% named Stavrok as one of their most favored
* 27.78% named Arnold Ogamon as one of their most favored
* 22.22% named Andrew Hester as one of their most favored
* 22.22% named Nathan Maine as one of their most favored

(Those with less than 15% ommitted)

**Least Favored:**

* 61.11% named James Schay as one of their least favored
* 38.88% named Ermier as one of their least favored
* 38.88% named Mitar Curesse as one of their least favored
* 22.22% named Stavrok as one of their least favored
* 16.67% named Nremni as one of their least favored

(Those with less than 15% ommitted)

#### Analysis

**1. The entirety of the conflict on taxes cost many a lot while it elevated a few others**

The tax arguments have dominated the last month, so it makes sense that they had a huge impact on these polls. What is interesting is that while the Triumvirate was fairly divided on the tax, that doesn't necessarily reflect in the polls, in fact, there is nothing indicating that individual's stances on the tax really affected people's approval ratings, it only indicates that for some people the tax really helped them and for others it really hurt them. Let's discuss the two who lost the most from the tax: bitter opponents Stavrok and Ogamon, previously nearly tied for the second most popular Executive, they have now each fallen by over 10% in approval. Granted, Stavrok remains the third most popular Executive, but Ogamon has really fallen behind, now sixth in popularity. While Ogamon's loss is likely attributed to what many, even in his own party, considered "intolerance for change", Stavrok's loss is likely reflecting his role in the tax as a whole and how he may have overreacted to some things like the challenge of the law in court. People are beginning to see less of a leader in Stavrok and more of a behind the scenes person, something that will hurt him in the long run as Major Executive. It has been a long time since Stavrok took his message directly to the people and that is showing in his significant loss of approval.

Andrew Hester and Nremni each lost around 5.5% as a result of both the tax code and their attachment to Stavrok. Nremni has become fairly unpopular in the Administrative Branch and his very liberal stance alienates him from the Establishment-controlled Administration. Hester however lost points because he was similar to Stavrok in the last month and now that they are running mates it makes sense that if either Stavrok or Hester take a hit, they will both lose a bit.

Ermier and James Schay, two who were completely unwilling to compromise on the law were both rated the two least favored people in the Triumvirate (note: Ermier tied with Mitar Curesse at 38.88%). Another definite outcome of the tax arguments.

On the subject of what the tax argument did to elevate others, there are a clear two who got a significant bounce from the it, Speaker Andrew Mearl and Head of Education Nathan Maine. Maine's bounce is fairly easy to justify, his surprising stance and becoming a major player in the tax argument gave him a lot of points and if he can hold to the gains he made there, he may ascend much like Arnold Ogamon did in his early months with the Executive Branch. Maine's direct challenge to Arnold Ogamon made Maine look strong and resilient while it made Ogamon look weaker which also might explain why Ogamon lost points (along with Ogamon's very unpopular attempt to impeach Maine) and Maine gained some. Of course Maine's strong stance cost him some significant points by those who were really opposed to the tax but surprisingly even those who are considered more conservative gave Nathan a fairly moderate to decent rating. On Andrew Mearl, the Speaker, his gain was predicted. Since he became Speaker, it has been fairly evident he may amount to something evry significant and that perhaps, if he can use his political connections well, he could build a strong career in even the Executive Branch should he want to later on. Speaker Mearl was willing to compromise on the tax law and as such he gained points from moderates and Progressives but he did suffer a little from his own party who rated him slightly lower than last time.

In conclusion on what happened with the tax's effect on approval ratings, it appears that overall the more willing to compromise someone was (and the more active they were about it), the better they were rated (indicating the increase in ratings for Speaker Mearl and Maine). On the other side, as this was Stavrok and Hester's idea originally, and they are given much of the credit for it, they took most of the fall for the law passing.

**2. The Stavrok for Major and Hester for Minor is still the most popular option overall**

Even acknowledging the drop in popularity for both Stavrok and Hester, they are still clear choices in the election and are the most popular option among the people. The only forseeable challenger would have been Elliot Neil but her approval rating, though extremely close to Hester's (both 54%), does not even begin compare to the incredible advantage Stavrok has. It would take Stavrok having at least 10% less popularity than her for him to lose the election to her, and as she hasn't even said she will be running Stavrok and Hester are almost guaranteed to be elected. Even ignoring the approval ratings in this poll, the Establishment Party simply lacks power in the Executive Branch, they only have two seats while the Progressive Party has four and the Union party has two. An Establishment challenger to Stavrok or Hester would get only three votes if it were done totally on party lines which still gives Stavrok or Hester a landslide victory of 2/3 of the Executives supporting them.

Stavrok and Hester were each rated as most favored with Stavrok being considered one of the two most favored by 44.44% of people and Hester being one of the most favored by 22.22% of people. That combined with their approval ratings averaged between the both of them (55%) shows that they are the definite choice for Major and Minor and while many in the Triumvirate are not fond of their ideals, they hold a lead that is good enough to win.

**3. Executives are becoming less popular**

If you look at the data, the Executive Branch lost 4.7% approval since two months ago. The average approval for an Executive is 55.7% which leaves only two Executives with an "above average" approval rating: Ehtya and Nathan Maine. Big longtime figures in the Executive Branch like Major Executive Stavrok, Arnold Ogamon, and Andrew Hester all took a pretty big hit largely as a result of the tax arguments. Out of the only four people who have an approval rating over 60%: Ehtya, Chief Justice Esteemi, Nathan Maine, Speaker Andrew Mearl - only two of them are Executives. This shouldn't be interpreted to discourage Executives who have an approval rating above 50% as that is still good, it means most people think you are a positive force in the Triumvirate, it is just interesting to note that the Administrative and Judicial branches are really stepping into the main scene as major players in the Triumvirate political field as well. It is also interesting to note that most are more satisfied with the respective leaders of the Judicial and Administrative Branches whereas only 55.29% are satisfied with the biggest figure in the Executive Branch, the Major Executive. Granted, Zerouh did acknowledge this would happen eventually, and that there would be changes in which branch of government was preferred depending on the time. By the time the next poll comes around, the Executive Branch may once again be incredibly popular, it all depends what happens in the next two months.

## 2.1.13 Poll

18 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticeable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

* **The Triumivrate as a Whole:** 74.44% (+6.11%)
* **The PEACE Act:** 66.11% (+2.36% from October 2012)
* **The Supreme Court:** 65% (-1.67%)
* **Committees:** 69.44% (N/A)
* **Progressive Party:** 48.33% (-11.67%)
* **Establishment Party:** 65% (+7.22%)
* **Union Party:** 61.11% (-1.67%)
* **Major Executive and Administrative Liaison Elliot Neil:** 72.94% (+18.82%)
* **Minor Executive Head of the Treasury Andrew Hester:** 50.59% (-4.12%)
* **Chief Ambassador Ehtya:** 85.29% (+1.17%)
* **Chief Attorney Arnold Ogamon:** 72.35% (+19.41%)
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 61.76% (+14.11%)
* **Head of Commerce and Industry Stavrok:** 54.12% (-1.17%)
* **Head of Research Mitar Curesse:** 13.53% (-15.88%)
* **Head of Education Nathan Maine:** 70.59% (+2.94%)
* **Head of Disaster Preparation Brady Becker:** 20.56% (N/A)
* **Head of Law Enforcement Aym Uluto:** 59.41% (N/A)
* **Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl:** 65.29% (+1.17)
* **Deputy Speaker Jackson Mearl:** 61.18% (N/A)
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 67.65% (-0.59%)

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 62.35% (+6.65%)

#### Additional Questions

**Average Triumvirate Member's Real World Political Affiliation:** 3.5 (0 is extreme liberal, 10 is extreme conservative)

**Age Range:**

* **17-18 years old:** 55.56%
* **19-21 years old:** 22.22%
* **15-16 years old:** 11.11%
* **22-25 years old:** 11.11%

**Biggest Focus Should Be:**

* **Recruiting:** 72.22%
* **Cultural Projects:** 16.67%
* **Political Reform:** 5.56%

**Best Major Executive (out of Zerouh, Ogamon, and Stavrok):**

* **Arnold Ogamon:** 61.11%
* **Zerouh:** 27.78%
* **Stavrok:** 11.11%

**Best Executive Ever:**

* **Ehtya:** 50%
* **Arnold Ogamon:** 38.89%
* **Elliot Neil:** 11.11%

#### Analysis

**1. Conservatism Is Popular Again**

In this poll you'll note that Arnold Ogamon, the person who perhaps best represents the Triumvirate, gained a whopping 19.41% since the last poll, and now has a 72.35% approval rating, making him the third highest rated person in the Triumvirate (behind Ehtya and Major Executive Neil). You can also see that ratings of the Progressive Party fell to bellow 50%, while the Establishment Party, now the most popular political party, has a 65% approval rating. This reflects on how the Triumvirate is taking a political shift away from Progressive movements as a withdrawal from Stavrok in office as Major Executive. The Triumvirate overwhelmingly chose Arnold Ogamon as their favorite Major Executive (even over Zerouh) and around 39% called him the best Executive ever. It is interesting to observe the relationship in the rise in popularity of the PEACE Act as well which may be attributed to the Major Executive's statement that it would remain law, and it may indicate a shifting view in the Establishment Party towards the internationalist law.

**2. If Neil does not run, Maine has a tremendous advantage**

Elliot Neil, a freshman Executive, and the youngest Major Executive ever, has become tremendously popular since taking office, and is now rated at around a 73% approval rating. Her moderation, willingness to compromise, and game-changing ideas on government efficiency and revitalizing the Triumvirate system have all worked to her favor. Several even went so far as to call her the best Executive ever. With the election in April still many weeks away, Neil does appear to hold the advantage. She is beloved by the Executive Branch and by the citizens, and her agenda is widely supported. However, there is speculation she may not run, which leaves two frontrunners for the position: Nathan Maine (Progressive) and Andrew Hester (Union). Nathan Maine is up in the polls against Hester, but that might be due to his own charisma and connections among Establishment Party members. Hester is also speculated not to run based on his own desires (which some are calling a wise call on his part due to his business savvy and his own political future), which makes Nathan almost the definitive candidate to become Major Executive if Neil does not run.

## 6.10.13 Poll

18 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticeable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

* **The Triumivrate as a Whole:** 76.67% (+2.23%)
* **The Membership Retainment Act:** 47.78% (N/A)
* **Progressive Party:** 62.22% (+13.89%)
* **Establishment Party:** 65.56% (+0.56%)
* **Union Party:** 72.78% (+11.67%)
* **Libertarian Party:** 56.11% (N/A)
* **Major Executive Nathan Maine:** 71.76% (+1.17%)
* **Minor Executive and Head of the Treasury Andrew Hester:** 65.88% (+15.29%)
* **Chief Ambassador Ehtya:** 76.47% (-8.82%)
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 64.12% (+2.36%)
* **Head of Commerce and Industry Lanclot Rice:** 55.29% (N/A)
* **Head of Media Spencer:** 50% (N/A)
* **Head of Research Mitar Curesse:** 33.53% (+20%)
* **Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl:** 63.53% (-1.76%)
* **Deputy Speaker Ryan Bleitze:** 42.94% (N/A)
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 72.94% (+5.29%)
* **Arnold Ogamon (In Hindsight):** 78.89%
* **Stavrok (In Hindsight):** 63.33%
* **Elliot Neil (In Hindsight):** 84.44%

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 59.58% (-2.77%)

#### Additional Questions

**Do you approve of how the Major Executive is handling his job?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 83.33%
* **No:** 16.67%

**Who Is the Worst Major Executive:** (Zerouh, Ogamon, Stavrok, Neil, and Maine all included)

* **Stavrok:** 38.89%
* **Zerouh:** 27.78%
* **Nathan Maine:** 16.67%
* **Arnold Ogamon:** 16.67%
* **Elliot Neil:** 0%

**What Should be the Smallest Priority of the Government?:**

* **Security:** 44.44%
* **Political Overhaul:** 38.89%
* **Foreign Affairs:** 16.67%
* **Cultural Projects:** 0%
* **Economy:** 0%
* **Recruiting:** 0%

**Which Department is the most productive?:**

* **Department of Intelligence:** 50%
* **Department of Naturalization:** 33.33%
* **Department of the Treasury:** 16.67%

#### Analysis

**1. With new members comes new concepts of government**

27.78% of those taking the poll were completely new members who did not participate in the last poll. The effects of this influx of new members with new ideas are very clear. Approval ratings on some of the older historical figures (like Ehtya) took a decrease, while the Progressive and Union Party both increased in popularity substantially (both over 10% increases from last poll). It's very hard to say where these 27.78% lie politically as some would be considered liberal, some conservative, and some moderate, so while they may not really impact the politics in the Triumvirate, they are changing how government and the Triumvirate are viewed. Modernistic concepts, an increase in party appreciation, and high approval of the Triumvirate all show that these new members are increasing morale and while idealistically they are very similar to older members, in desires and drives they are very different.

**2. Elliot Neil made a huge mark**

If you look at Neil's ratings in hindsight (84.44%, which, to note, is the highest approval ever seen in any GM poll before), note that not a single person considered her the worst Major Executive (and the highest number actually said that the person she beat out was the worst), and then note that not a single person polled rated Elliot Neil lower than a six, it's fairly clear that the Triumvirate has a deep love for Ms. Neil, though she was only around a short time. This infatuation allowed her party to retain a high approval rating of 65.56% and possibly for Mearl, Hester, and Maine, three of her closest associates during her term as Major, for also have high approval ratings.

**3. The Union Party gets the lead again, but may see long-term challenges**

Though the Establishment Party overtook the Union Party last trimester in terms of approval, the Union Party soared back with a 11.67% gain since the poll four months ago. Combine that with Hester's increase of 15.29% and the Union Party has set itself up to be the public's favorite for some time. This all looks great on the surface, but there are some significant indicators that the Union Party's rating is temporary, or simply false. The greatest increase in Union Party ratings came, generally, from its own members, who rated it higher this trimester. This shows that they are becoming more unified, but it doesn't show anything about how the outsiders view the party. While outsiders to the party did rate it higher on average than they did last trimester, some went lower. It's as though people are viewing the Union Party as elite, out of touch, pro-business, and successful, while not very in touch with the average citizen. That, combined with a sharp rise in totalitarian principles in dissent of the Union Party, may pose some problems to the party later on this year or next.

**4. Nathan Maine will be reelected**

As a result of this poll, but with the next election two months away, we can be fairly confident when we say Nathan Maine will be reelected to a second term as Major Executive unless there is a massive scandal which brings him down or, possibly, if Andrew Hester decides to run for Major Executive. Though Maine has a higher rating that Hester at the moment (by about 5%), Hester is considered to have better political connections and can draw in conservatives, liberals, and moderates whereas Maine's base is generally just the left and some moderates. As Hester has expressed no intention to run though, it is likely that Maine and Hester will remain in their respective positions (Major Maine, Minor Hester) throughout 2013. There is no dark horse candidate to challenge Maine similar to how Neil challenged Stavrok, and Maine is incredibly popular at the moment (with a 83.33% job approval rating and 71.76% general approval rating) after experiencing a boost from his State of the Union and from his new slate of laws he's proposed. Maine is also fortunate to be dealing with an Executive Branch composed almost entirely of moderates and liberals, with no Establishment or Libertarian Party presence for now, which practically guarantees that the Triumvirate will be seeing Nathan Maine as a leader for quite some time.

## 10.2.13 Poll

21 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticeable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

* **The Triumvirate as a Whole:** 82.38% (+5.71%)
* **The 2013-II Economic Stimulus and Infrastructure Investment Act:** 62.86% (N/A)
* **Progressive Party:** 62.86% (+0.64%)
* **Establishment Party:** 55.71% (-9.85%)
* **Union Party:** 65.24% (-7.54%)
* **Libertarian Party:** 65.71% (+9.6%)
* **Humanitarian Party:** 44.29% (N/A)
* **Authority Party:** 42.38% (N/A)
* **Major Executive Nathan Maine:** 73.50% (+1.74%)
* **Minor Executive and Head of Commerce and Industry Lanclot Rice:** 50% (-5.29%)
* **Chief Ambassador and Chairman of the JCC Jackson Mearl:** 68% (N/A)
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 54% (-10.12%)
* **Head of Media Spencer:** 42.5% (-7.5%)
* **Administrative Liaison Mitchell Carrick:** 40% (N/A)
* **Head of the Treasury Ryan Bleitze:** 43% (+0.06%)
* **Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl:** 56.5% (-7.03%)
* **Deputy Speaker Edward Stenbach:** 60% (N/A)

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 52.5% (-7.08%)

#### Additional Questions

**Do you approve of how the Major Executive is handling his job?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 81%
* **No:** 19%

**Do you approve of the creation of the Executive position of Senator as is?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 71%
* **No:** 29%

**Which political party deserves more representation in the Executive Branch?:**

* **Establishment:** 33%
* **Libertarian:** 33%
* **Progressive:** 14%
* **Authority:** 14%
* **Humanitarian:** 5%

**What is your real-world nationality?:**

* **United States of America:** 86%
* **United Kingdom:** 5%
* **Australia:** 5%
* **Germany:** 5%

#### Analysis

**1. The Progressive Party becomes top dog**

For the first time in nearly a year, the Progressive Party has come out ahead of the Establishment Party in approval. Nathan Maine's approval ratings are through the roof, the 2013-II ESIIA is rated very well, and the key Establishment Party figures cannot even compete (Administrative Liaison Carrick is even down to 40% approval, rated as the lowest Executive). At this point, it is not only just possible, but it is extremely likely the Progressive Party will take control of the Administration. With even Speaker of the Administration Andrew Mearl's (who is regarded as one of the finest and most well suited politicians in the Triumvirate by even the most ardent supporters of Nathan Maine) rating dropping over 7% since our last poll, and Maine's signature stimulus act (which was originally challenged by even some of the more liberal people in the Triumvirate) now rated as high as the Progressive Party, the Progressive Party will likely fare very well in the opening of 2014.

Despite all of this, it is worth noting that while people seem to favor Progressive ideas and a Progressive Administration to come, and widely support Nathan Maine, most feel that the Executive Branch is too liberal and would like to see more Libertarians and Establishment Party candidates elected to the Executive Branch instead of more liberals.

**2. Union, Humanitarian, and Authority struggle while the Libertarians gain the upper hand**

Unexpectedly, though the Union Party traditionally held the "top rated political party" spot... a new party has emerged to take that spot this trimester: the Libertarian Party. Seen as non-political, with popular Theodore Crown and John Brayer at its head, the Libertarian Party has edged out a spot that may set it up for success in 2014. Also, citing that a third of all people polled stated they wanted more Libertarian representation in the Executive Branch, it seems that the Libertarian Party has made some public investments in political capital that are finally about to pay off.

The Union Party, which many see as "unsustainable" due to the relative political strength of the Progressive and Establishment parties each pulling each direction on it along with its "out of touch" criticisms due to being linked to large businesses, dropped around 7.5% while the Libertarian party rose nearly 10%. Authority and Humanitarian both trail behind the four major parties, each in the low 40% range, indicating public disapproval of each, potentially pushing them to merge with the next closest party (Progressive for each of them).

**3. Nathan Maine will not only be reelected, but his legacy may surpass that of his predecessors**

Since his joining the Triumvirate over a year ago, Nathan Maine has never once (even if you include polls performed by those other than General Media) declined in rating. Now rated in the mid-70% range, with his signature legislation and his party about 10% below him (but still in the strong mid-60% range), to say the Triumvirate approves of Major Executive Maine is an understatement... the Universal Triumvirate *adores* Nathan Maine.

Nathan Maine's time as Major Executive has experienced many firsts: his first term was the first time that the Administrative Branch had neither the Speaker nor Deputy Speaker as someone from the Major's own party; this term was the first time that the Administrative Branch had both Speaker and Deputy Speaker (despite every odd imaginable) from the same party (unfortunately for Maine, from the party that opposes him the strongest); he's had to deal with the first market switches towards public companies and monetary policy; and who knows what else he will face in the rest of this trimester to come. Despite this, his biggest challenger in the Executive Branch, Mitchell Carrick, has an incredibly low rating (lower than anything else that was subject to the poll), and the only thing that he scores lower than is the Triumvirate in general (which increased 5.71% over the last poll. There is no doubt he will be reelected. It would likely take nothing less of Zerouh returning to the Executive Branch and running for Major Executive for Maine to lose reelection.

To comment on the other side, Nathan Maine has weaknesses. He is widely considered egotistical, arrogant, and defiant... but perhaps that is what the Triumvirate adores in him, as in many ways the Triumvirate views him as the second coming of our greatest figure. To put things in perspective, neither Arnold Ogamon or Elliot Neil (besides in hindsight) ever scored as high as Nathan Maine has, and with reelection a near certainty, Nathan Maine will have served a year in office and will have defined his legacy as possibly... just possibly... the greatest Major Executive the Triumvirate has seen.

## 2.7.14 Poll

22 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that).

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticeable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

* **The Triumvirate as a Whole:** 86.36% (+3.98%)
* **Recruitment Incentives Program:** 65% (N/A)
* **Progressive Party:** 64.09% (+1.23%)
* **Establishment Party:** 58.64% (+2.93%)
* **Union Party:** 67.27% (+2.03%)
* **Libertarian Party:** 59.09% (-6.62%)
* **Authority Party:** 46.36% (+2.07%)
* **Major Executive Nathan Maine:** 82.38% (+8.88%)
* **Minor Executive and Head of Commerce and Industry Lanclot Rice:** 60.48% (+10.48%)
* **Chief Ambassador and Chairman of the JCC Jackson Mearl:** 67.14% (-0.86%)
* **Head of Intelligence Ascencia:** 55.24% (+1.24%)
* **Head of Media Spencer:** 50% (+7.5%)
* **Head of Naturalization Satine Ehtya:** 64.76% (N/A)
* **Senator Clark McDearny:** 71.9% (N/A)
* **Chief Attorney Edward Stenbach:** 66.67% (+6.67% from Deputy Speaker)
* **Head of the Treasury Ryan Bleitze:** 48.1% (+5.1%)
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 68.57% (N/A)
* **Speaker of the Administration Carlson Tyler:** 55.71% (N/A)
* **Deputy Speaker John Brayer:** 60.48% (N/A)

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 63% (+10.5%)

#### Additional Questions

**Do you approve of how the Major Executive is handling his job?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 91%
* **No:** 9%

**Should recruitment incentives and increasing membership have priority over the government's fiscal well-being? (i.e. should recruitment incentives be raised so more members may come in, even though it would significantly increase the government's debt?):** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 59%
* **No:** 41%

**Should the Triumvirate be involved in the Desolaran Civil War?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 64%
* **No:** 36%

**Should the tax rate be raised, lowered, or kept as is?:**

* **Raised:** 27%
* **Lowered:** 41%
* **Kept as is:** 32%

(this would indicate that 59% are happy with the current tax rate, meaning they either want it higher or at the same rate)

**Which political party deserves more representation in the Executive Branch?:**

* **Libertarian:** 46%
* **Establishment:** 18%
* **Progressive:** 18%
* **Authority:** 18%

* **Average age of Triumvirate members:** 18.41

**Who Was the Best Major Executive (out of Zerouh, Ogamon, Stavrok, Neil, and Maine)?:**

* **Arnold Ogamon:** 45%
* **Nathan Maine:** 41%
* **Elliot Neil:** 14%

#### Analysis

**1. Maine is solid, Progressives aren't**

Major Executive Nathan Maine, per his usual, rose in the polls once more (this time jumping 10% in approval rating (with only 9% - 2 people - saying they did not approve of how he was handling his job; and getting an 82% overall). He came impressively close to topping out Arnold Ogamon as the best Major Executive (older members and conservatives largely voted Ogamon, newer members and Progressives largely voted Maine). Maine's signature recruitment incentives program stand strong with a 65% score and 59% of the public believes, as Maine does, that recruitment should come before a balanced and sound budget. Furthermore, 64% of those polled said they supported Triumvirate involvement in the Desolaran conflict, further adding to Maine's all-around support. And finally, 59% of those polled stated that they are pleased with the tax rates as is (or would like them raised), meaning only a minority of 41% actually want them lowered. Say whatever you may about the Major Executive, but he has successfully convinced the Triumvirate that taxes should be higher, a foreign war that doesn't involve the Triumvirate is good, that recruitment incentives are a stroke of genius, and that he is one of the Triumvirate's finest. The first successful Progressive in many ways, Maine has defined himself as an icon of the Triumvirate for a long time.

However... while Maine and his policies look strong, things aren't looking as good for his party, the Progressives. Speaker Tyler (probably the second most powerful Progressive behind the Major Executive) is at a 56% rating, nearly 5% behind the Deputy Speaker who is a Libertarian. The Progressives rose very little in popularity in this poll and their strength in the Executive Branch seems to be weakening. Minor Executive Rice did shoot up in the polls (an impressive increase of over 10%), but even he is lagging behind Executives like Satine Ehtya, Clark McDearny, Jackson Mearl, and Edward Stenbach. What this indicates is not that people don't like him (because they clearly do), but more that they're not convinced that the rising leader of the Progressives is a path they want to take, preferring more moderate Executives. The Progressives also display a certain split, between the "modern Progressive" (which takes on Maine's model) that Maine and Cannon represent, and the "liberal Progressive" (which is more keen on Stavrok's original ideals for the party) that Speaker Tyler and former Executive Curesse embody. Despite all of this, the Progressive Party is strong, controlling the Administration, Major Executive, and Minor Executive. How they act for the duration of this trimester and how they act when Maine leaves will absolutely define their future.

**2. Libertarians struggle with image but are still in demand**

The Libertarian Party did take a hit from the last poll, dropping nearly 7%, likely due to the realization that what they actually stand for is quite contrary to the ideas of the Progressive status quo and the fact that they are transforming into a neo-Establishment party, representing pure economic conservatism and freedom. Libertarian ideals are strongly against the ideals of the current Major Executive (though his Chief of Staff and closest confidant is a Libertarian) in that they do not support international affairs, recruitment incentives, tax increases, or government spending while the Major Executive is a powerful advocate for all of the above. Despite this, more people want to see a Libertarian in the Executive Branch (as they currently have no seat there) and the Libertarian Party, if it can manage to lure in some new members, will likely get a new Executive before the Establishment or Union Party manages to. The Libertarians also control the position of Deputy Speaker, which was a major achievement in that this trimester was the first time they grabbed a hold of one of the four major offices in the Triumvirate, but there is little indication that their power in the Administration will grow next trimester, even if they retain the position.

**3. This election could be close**

With the election for Major Executive in April still more than two months away and no candidates announced, this poll may give interesting data as to the field. Potential candidates for Major or Minor in the Executive Branch are many (Jackson Mearl, Clark McDearny, Satine Ehtya, Lanclot Rice, Edward Stenbach, Ryan Bleitze) but the only one who seems to be noticeably dragging behind the others in terms of public appeal is Bleitze. Be that as it may, if the Progressives throw their lot in with Bleitze, the Union Party and Establishment Party are in for a fight. Of all of those listed potential candidates, McDearny is the most favored, but he lacks the experience that Rice, Bleitze, Stenbach, and certainly Mearl all have. Bleitze, Rice, and McDearny all have low defense experience but high political experience, whereas Mearl is in the opposite position. Stenbach has a solid portfolio of both defense and political experience, but as one of the last remaining remnants of the nearly-extinct Establishment Party which is trying to recover from its crippling defeat in the shutdown last trimester, he has little backing. With the election coming up more quickly than one might think, it's still a very open field and we won't know who is running or even who the victor may be for quite some time.

## 7.12.14 Poll

24 total responded to the poll (note: on voting on specific people's approval ratings, those who were the subject were not permitted to vote on that). Also please note that this poll was conducted in the range of 7.12.14 - 7.16.14, the last end of which was marred by the resignation of Ryan Bleitze and ascension of Edward Stenbach as Major Executive.

#### Approval Ratings

Out of a maximum of 10, anything above 5 means it/they is/are considered as a positive force in the Triumvirate. Noted next to it is the net gain/loss from the last poll), you may use this general guide to determine what that means:

* 10% and Above Loss: Extremely major, something was extremely detrimental to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 5-10% Loss: Significant but moderate, something was moderately harmful to the approval ratings of this person/institution.
* 2-5% Loss: Not an unusual occurrence but perhaps something to look at.
* Between 2% Loss and 2% Gain: No significant change in approval ratings.
* 2-5% Gain: Not an unusual occurrence but shows minor increase of approval.
* 5-10% Gain: Significant but moderate increase in popularity. Something gave this person or institution a noticeable improvement over last poll.
* 10% or Above Gain: Extremely major, something was extremely helpful to the increase in approval ratings to this person/institution.

* **The Triumvirate as a Whole:** 65.19% (-21.17%)
* **Progressive Party:** 59.57% (-4.52%)
* **Establishment Party:** 63.75 (+5.11%)
* **Union Party:** 66.67 (-0.6%)
* **Libertarian Party:** 63.33% (+4.24%)
* **Authority Party:** 39.58% (-6.68%)
* **Cosmopolitan Party:** 62.08% (N/A)
* **Major Executive Ryan Bleitze:** 22.61% (-25.49% from Head of the Treasury)
* **Minor Executive and Chief Attorney Edward Stenbach:** 66.52% (-0.15%)
* **Chief Ambassador and Chairman of the JCC Jackson Mearl:** 66.52% (-0.62%)
* **Head of the Archive Theodore Crown:** 73.91% (N/A)
* **Head of Education Lanclot Rice:** 64.48% (+4.3%)
* **Head of Media Spencer:** 55.65% (+5.65%)
* **Senator Clark McDearny:** 69.57 (-2.33%)
* **Head of the Treasury Andrew Hester:** 57.39% (N/A)
* **Administrative Liaison Charles Sessions:** 65.22% (N/A)
* **Head of Commerce and Industry Vulpes Arenas:** 56.09% (N/A)
* **Head of Intelligence Fenner Plecrov:** 52.17% (N/A)
* **Speaker of the Administration Luke Cannon:** 68.7% (N/A)
* **Deputy Speaker John Brayer:** 62.61% (+2.13%)
* **Chief Justice Esteemi:** 68.26% (-0.31%)

**Average for the Executive Branch:** 58.93% (-4.07%)

#### Additional Questions

**Do you approve of how the Major Executive is handling his job?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 12.5%
* **No:** 87.5%

**Should the Major Executive be impeached?:** (yes or no)

* **Yes:** 66.67%
* **No:** 33.33%

**Who is your choice for Major Executive in the upcoming election (of Bleitze, Stenbach, Rice, and Mearl)?:**

* **Edward Stenbach:** 43.5%
* **Lanclot Rice:** 26.1%
* **Jackson Mearl:** 17.4%
* **Ryan Bleitze:** 13%

**Name an individual who is most deserving of the Triunity High Honor Emblem:**

* **Ascencia:** 39.1%
* **Stavrok:** 34.8%
* **Andrew Mearl:** 21.7%
* **Jackson Mearl:** 4.3%

**What do you believe is the most powerful position in the Triumvirate?:**

* **Speaker of the Administration:** 50%
* **Major Executive:** 33.33%
* **Chief Justice:** 16.67%

**Which party deserves more representation in the Executive Branch?:**

* **Establishment:** 26.1%
* **Cosmopolitan:** 21.7%
* **Progressive:** 17.4%
* **Authority:** 17.4%
* **Union:** 13%
* **Libertarian:** 4.3%

#### Analysis

**1. Ryan Bleitze is the biggest loser**

With an overwhelming and record-breaking 87.5% of Triumvirate citizens saying they do not approve of the Major Executive, and a stunning two-thirds of them saying he should be outright impeached, Ryan Bleitze is clearly the loser in this poll. He dropped 25% in approval as a person since becoming Major Executive and his party, the Authority Party, also dropped a depressing amount. If it weren't the fact that he was impeached and then resigned shortly before the release of this poll, I'd have said that there is no way he wins a second term as Major Executive. What is interesting to notice though is that the Union Party, the biggest opponents to Bleitze's policies and agenda, did not get any bump from Bleitze's failures. In fact, they all stayed more or less the same in the polls, and only 13% of the Triumvirate feels the Union Party deserves more seats in the Executive Branch and only 17% of them want the Union Party's candidate for Major Executive, Jackson Mearl, to be elected. Back to the subject, it will be something to watch to see if the Authority Party, in dismay, survives and manages to make a comeback. Speaking of comeback...

**2. The Establishment Party is the Comeback Kid**

They managed to pull it off, despite having probably their worst year on record, causing a government shutdown, and being crushed by Nathan Maine's year of Progressivism, the Establishment Party has managed to make their comeback as a party of moderation, decency, and sensible politics. For the first time in over a year they are finally rated higher than the Progressive Party (at nearly 64% compared to the Progressive's near 60%), their chairman (and now Major Executive) Edward Stenbach has a solid 66% approval, and they are the second highest rated party in the Triumvirate at the moment. Granted, some of this was predictable, considering the fact that the Progressives have held the Administration two trimesters now, and held the Major Executive for a full year, and then Ryan Bleitze pushed conservatism back into the popular spotlight again, but it is still an uplifting thing to see for the Establishment Party who seeks to enter back into power. Careful though, don't neglect the subtle power of the Progressive Party. Their Speaker, Luke Cannon, is tremendously popular, guaranteeing the Progressives solid hold of the Administration for some time. Their party's chairman, Lanclot Rice, is also popular, especially among liberals, though he is respected by all. How 2014 works out for both the revitalized Establishment Party and the powerful Progressive Party could be dramatic. Either the two cooperate, learning from the mistakes of 2013, or they set themselves up for another showdown in the fall... one which, this time, without Nathan Maine, could backfire on the Progressives.

**3. Stenbach vs. Mearl vs. Rice**

On to the big topic on everyone's mind, the election in the fall. Based on polling, it's clear that Jackson Mearl is not the public's choice over either Lanclot Rice or Edward Stenbach, but... he is the second choice for nearly everyone, which may give him power if either Stenbach or Rice fall out of favor. Stenbach has managed to eek in support from Libertarians which gives him a large boost in this poll, but the Cosmopolitans, Authoritarians, and Progressives all align with the more liberal Lanclot Rice. An early analysis predicts a Stenbach victory this August (though keep in mind, public opinion does not have a choice in the matter, only the Executive Branch does, where the election is much closer), but even the revitalized Establishment Party cannot compete in the numbers game that will come into play this December, if Lanclot Rice should decide to run again. As for Jackson Mearl, despite being the more experienced of the three candidates, his weak polling may come from the fact that he lacks the spirit that Lanclot Rice and Edward Stenbach have. Long story short, Rice and Stenbach have set themselves up to a great rivalry, one which could benefit the Triumvirate with moderate ideals and smart expansion, and will both go down as champions of their respective causes.

One last note on this poll... a warning to every party... beware the Libertarians. They are a silent bunch, but as these polls demonstrate, they've become quite a power in the Administration and in the Executive Branch. Rife with conservatism, the Progressive Party might be in trouble if the Libertarians and Establishment continue to team up.