ND/The Dwarf War

# Grim Math of the Dwarf War

The typical Legion at war against the Dwarfen Safeholds expects to sustain 90+% yearly casualties among the Orc and Goblin infantry and Kobold engineers. Specialist units, like Ogres, Trolls, Dragons and other great beasts, and especially the Luminal commander and Imperial Noble staff officers, are preserved for breakthroughs and take much lower casualties, though they also see much less action.

In a typical year, a Legion expects to launch 4-6 serious assaults that take 2-3 weeks to resolve. The rest of the year is spent integrating fresh troops into formation, probing the Dwarf lines, and retraining the surviving veterans. Imperial commanders expect to take 20% casualties for no gain in 60% of their battles, 15% casualties for little gain other than a few dead Dwarfs in 32% of their battles, and 15% casualties in exchange for some dead dwarfs in 8% of their battles. Over the course of a five year period, the Legion expects to lose 455% of its initial strength to permanently kill or incapacitate 36% of its Dwarf foe. That exchange rate is unsustainable for the Dwarfs, and should grind the Dwarfs into dust within the next two centuries or less. Once every few decades or so, the Imperials expect to win a breakthrough that forces the Dwarfs back to the next defensive position and inflicts nearly three years of casualties on them. As Dwarf forces diminish and more territory is loss, those breakthroughs should become more common.

## Orc Casualty Rates

An Orc soldier, fresh to the fighting, has about a 60% chance of surviving his first battle. Survival odds increase from there, with about 91% of the Orcs that survivor for four or more battles surviving each subsequent battle. Around half the Orcs in each Legion are veterans of a year or more's service and eligible for retraining and reassignment to one of the veteran regiments. Two-thirds of the veterans survive through the second year, more than a third into the third year, and almost a quarter of the veterans are still alive after four years of service (though they make up only 10% of the total Legion strength).

The Empire does not train Orcs past veteran status nor does it organize long term veterans into more elite units. Other than wizards, Orcs are never rotated back to the home front and do not serve as cadres or instructors.

## Background Math

1. This analysis depends on the mostly balanced Dwarf and Imperial units.
2. 60% of Orc assaults are 1-2 rounds of deliberate attacks against deliberate defenses where the Orcs lose by 1-6 points, and take 20-25% casualties per round to deliver 0-10% casualties per round. The Orcs break off, the dwarfs don't pursue, and the Orcs end up with 15-20% casualties and the Dwarfs hold the field and reduce their casualties to 0%.
3. 33% of orc assaults have the Orcs win on the first or second round, for 30% casualties among the Orcs and 25% casualties among the Dwarfs. The Orcs break off on the third round, reducing their casualties to 15%. The Dwarfs, holding the field, not pursuing, and having triage focus, reduce their casualties to 2%.
4. 8% of orc assaults (ideally) have the Orcs win two rounds, the Dwarfs break contact on the third round, and the Orcs pursue. Final casualties for 10% for the orcs, 22% for the Dwarfs.

The exact composition of an Orc force varies over time, depending on how well they did on their last few battles, but typically 15-20% of the force is fresh meat, 15-20% has survived two or three battles, 5-7% has survived four, and about 55% of the force has survived 5 battles.

Dwarfs, with better equipment and training to start, and mostly fighting on the defensive in the best siege works in the world, take 4-12% casualties per year. Most Dwarf formations are veterans, and dwarfs retrain extensively whenever they have the chance, though the Empire keeps pressure on the Dwarf lines to limit their opportunities to retrain.

### Transport Math

It takes roughly 20-28 days, assuming reasonable winds, for newly trained Orcs to get on the boat at Fornataras, sail to Undikerra or Penela, and walk to the Legions, and another week for Orcs trained at Noiritaras. The recruit spends a week or less on the boat, and few boats are lost at sea. During winter, it takes slightly longer because the northern ports are mostly closed and all recruits have to go through Penela (which isn't optimum for the Gandabria front).

It takes no less than 41 days for a newly trained Orc to march from Hyarnataras to Corsor, Sluggelse, or Culmar, sail to Novyrada, and march up to the Whitewers. Storms on Cape Har are frequent, and roughly 10% of the ships are lost at sea and 1/3rd have to divert to Hoyhuffen, Blutkate, Soroverstine, or (preferably) Yadum or Nadhern Villed in Zerniless. Marching from Venrike or Hanist adds two weeks to the arrival time.

Essentially, Gravecall gets less supplies and priority because the Empire has to pay for her troops for two months before they can possibly be of use, compared to a month for the northern front, and her forces see 10% attrition before they even arrive. (Her transport fleet also deadheads for a month on the return journey, compared to 10 days for the northern front). A single company costs ~$1.7M to raise, and the boat to transport them is around $700K, so the loss rate from the boats is annoying but not a significant factor in Imperial calculations.

Actual math is the Whitewers raise ~17 companies every 2 months (versus 15 for the other 3 Legions and 7 for the Valley Force). The Whitewers need 17 ships to transport their new recruits, while the Gandabria legions need 5 ships each and the Menkgu forces need 3 (total). The Whitewers depreciate their ships at 12% (replace each ship every 8 months!, 12 ships/year) while the others depreciate at 2% (replace each ship at ~50 months, 3 ships/year). The Whitewers pay $4.8M to ship their recruits, versus $570K for the Gandabria legions and $342K for the Menkgu forces, and $233K to raise and maintain them before they reach the lines (versus $180K for the other legions). Overall, supporting the Whitewers in the field costs $870M, versus $625-775M for the other Legions and $320M for the Valley force. It's not a crazy difference but it does matter.