2019 Power Rankings-Week 13

## Introduction

I got up at 3am, drove three hours in near blizzard conditions to the airport, where a valve froze and needed to be de-iced, flew my ass from Wisconsin to ATL, took a Lyft with a Jamaican man who believes that our DNA coding is actually passed down to us from a civilization that existed billions of years ago and was so advanced that it built a weapon that accidentally disintegrated their Universe, causing the Big Bang, walked into my apartment where I'd left berries out on the counter since before Thanksgiving, flies buzzing everywhere as mold oozed from the container, sat in my winter gear in 80 degree temperature because the shades were left open and the livingroom has basically been an oven for 72 hours, just so I could finish this writeup and post it with 9 minutes to spare.

so let's do this....

Three teams fighting for one remaining playoff spot.

Three teams fighting for two bye spots.

Two teams hoping to play spoiler.

And Papa vs. Butt, the most vanilla of all matchups and yet packed with a controversy we have never seen before.

## Joe Mac Invitational Donation

So I received donations from four teams (five including me). I haven't sent the donation to WWP yet because I thought I'd be getting a few more so if anyone else wants to add to the pot, feel free. Obviously there is no pressure. I am going to wait and send it together with Pat when I'm home for the holiday. RIP Joe Mac. We miss you.

## Absolute Standings

Absolute Standings is simply this: what if instead of matchups, the top five teams got a W every week and the bottom five took an L?

If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today:

This is about what you would expect to see. Shotti being 7-5 was actually the biggest surprise for me, but he has consistantly been the 4th or 5th highest scorer each week, earning him W's more often than L's. RIP and GBM would be swapped, while momma and Dee are at exactly the record that they deserve.

## Who's Hot, Who's Not?

Scoring Over Last Three Weeks
 Garoppoblow Me
 Paddock 9
 Duck Punchers
 Bell of Da Ball
 RIPDab
 Shotti Bunch
 Papa's Posse
 ma ma momma said
 Sweet Dee

The hot/not is an unreliable indicator of how teams will fair in the playoffs. in 2017, the week 12 hot/not chart accurately predicted the outcome of 5 out of the 7 playoff games, with the "hotter" team prevailing over the less hot team.

However, in 2018 it predicted just 2 out of the 7 games.

## Series Recaps

* Paddock 9 splits the season series with RIPDab and now leads the all-time franchise series (7-6).
* Bell of Da Ball gets their first ever win against GBM, securing a playoff berth in the process. They still trail the franchise series (1-3).
* Duck Punchers sweeps the season series with Sweet Dee and now has the franchise lead (6-5).
* Momma sweeps the season series against Papa and commands the franchise series (11-6).
* Pain Train splits the season series with Shotti but still trails in the series (3-9).

## Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. For now, these don't really take into account the points tie-breaker.

^ - Means Team will Finish This Playoff Spot or Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

## Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Twelve Scenarios

* **The Shotti Bunch** wins the Commissioner's Cup with:
	+ Win *and*Loss by Duck Punchers
* **The Shotti Bunch** clinches a first round bye with:
	+ Win *or*
	+ Loss by Pain Train
* **Duck Punchers** wins the Commissioner's Cup with:
	+ Win *or*
	+ Loss by The Shotti Bunch
* **Pain Train** clinches a first round bye with:
	+ Win *and* Loss by Shotti Bunch
* **Garoppoblow Me** clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ Win
* **Garoppoblow Me** is eliminated with:
	+ Loss
* **RIPDab** clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ Win *and* Loss by Garoppoblow Me *and* do not get outscored by 44.75 by Momma
* **RIPDab** is eliminated with:
	+ Loss *or*
	+ Get outscored by at least 44.75 by Momma
* **ma ma momma said**clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ Win *and* Loss by RIPDab *or*
	+ Win *and* Outscore RIPDab by 44.75
* **ma ma momma said** is eliminated with:
	+ Loss

## Stat Chat

For the final week of the season, here is one final chart and perhaps it is the most important one of all. Here is everyone's record in week 13 games:

Updated 1/1/19

GBM has a tall task ahead of them as they will have to overcome their top two players underperforming, but perhaps momma should be the one who is nervous. Garopppblow Me is the most dominant week 13 team of all time. They've won three straight games and a whopping 6 out of 8. Momma has only won 2 out of 8.

Sweet Dee is on the biggest losing streak in LOC history at five games, having only won a single time way back in 2013. They are giving Shotti a run for his money this week.

Here are our other stats for the final regular season week of the decade:

* Duck becomes the 2nd team to win 80 combined games, joining Shotti from last week.
* Paddock 9 becomes the 7th team to reach 60 combined wins.
* Paddock 9 also becomes the 7th team to reach 50 regular season wins.
* Shotti becomes the 8th team to hit 40 combined losses.
* RIPDab is exactly .500 through 134 gaes (67-67). This game will not only decide their playoff future but whether they are a winner or a loser through nine years of fantasy football (no pressure).
* Pain Train becomes the 8th team to reach 50 regular season losses.
* Papa outscored Sweet Dee this week and moved into 9th place by 5 points. That means instead of breaking the record for most weeks in last place, Papa remains in a tie for 1st with momma. Sweet Dee notches their 15th week in last.

## Week 13 Through the Ages

Week 13 is packing a punch yet again this season. This year, the league's two most relevent rivalries of late are facing off with massive playoff stakes.

Let's take a look back at some of the most memorable week 13 showdowns.

### 2011 - A Legend is Born

At 6-6, Papa needed a win *and* a loss by either GBM or Brak and Yellow to make playoffs. Meanwhile, Pain Train (9-3) was facing RIPDab (9-3). The winner was getting a bye, the loser was playing in the quarterfinals. Let's take a look at the results:

7th > 2nd
 Papa's Posse

9th > 5th
 bob's bananas

With those two results, Papa jumped from 7th to 6th and Brak and Yellow fell from 5th to 7th. Papa would go on to win the Glory Bowl by defeating Duck Punchers again. Meanwhile...

1st > 3rd
 RIPDab

Tied for first heading into the week, Pain Train is defeated handily by RIPdab and is forced into the 3-seed, where they would lose in the opening round to none other than Papa's Posse.

### 2012 - First 6-7 Team Ever Clinches Playoff Berth in Upset Victory

Pain Train (4-8, 7th) almost became the first and only 5-8 team to make the playoffs. They needed a win and a loss by Why am I doing this (5-7, 6th). In one of the most surprising performances and playoff berths in history, "Why am I doing this" upset the soon-to-be Glory Bowl II champion MMMS (9-3) in week 13, knocking Pain Train into the consolation tourney. Pain Train had outscored WAIDT on the season by close to 400 points.

6th > 2nd
 Why am I doing this

### 2013 - Pain Train Takes Down the Momma Dynasty

All six playoff spots were decided by week 13, with 6th place IAMGROOT (6-6) two games ahead of 7th place Paddock 9 (4-8). But at the top of the standings, a powerhouse showdown determined the 2-seed in the league. Defending champion momma (9-3) took on Pain Train (8-4), with the winner getting a first round bye and the loser forced to play in the quarterfinals.

3rd > 2nd
 Pain Train WOO WOO

With an absolute beatdown of MMMS, PT won the bye spot while momma would go on to defeat IAMGROOT in the quarterfinals, only to be taken down again by Pain Train in the semifinals. Pain Train single-handedly vanquished the momma dynasty that year.

### 2014 - IAMGROOT Clinches by Less than 1 Point

Paddock 9 (5-7, 7th) was in a race against IAMGROOT (6-6, 6th) yet again. This time, they needed a win against momma (10-2, 1st) and a Groot loss against Sweet Dee (2-10, 10th) and they would be in. The odds were stacked against them and these two games proved to be the most close, exciting showdowns to determine a playoff spot...ever.

7th > 1st
 Paddock 9

6th > 10th
 IAMGROOT

IAMGROOT makes the playoffs by less than 1 point. Despite the victory, Paddock 9 finished in 7th, a game back. They still managed to unseat momma from the 1-seed, which was taken by Duck punchers. DP went on to defeat momma in Glory Bowl IV.

### 2015 - History Repeats Itself: Papa vs. Duck Play Win-or-Go-Home

For those who don't remember just how storied the rivalries in this league are, hopefully this section has served as a reminder.

Duck (5-7, 7th) owned the points tie-breaker with Papa's Posse (6-6, 6th). The two faced off in week 13, with the winner guaranteed a playoff spot and the loser guaranteed the Consolation Tournament. It is one of the few pure win-or-go-home games we have ever seen in week 13. Even this week we don't have a true win-or-go-home since a momma victory would still require an RIPDab loss in order to ensure a playoff spot.

Papa took care of business and sent the defending champion packing.

6th > 7th
 Papa's Posse

This would be the first (and still only) time that Duck Punchers missed the playoffs, though their legacy still has not completely recovered.

### 2017 - Three Teams, Two Spots. Sound Familiar?

This year's race for the Festival of Champions did not disappoint. Garoppoblow Me (5-7, 7th) was in a tight race all season with ma ma momma said (6-6, 6th) and now the two teams would go head-to-head, with the winner punching their ticket to the big dance. Meanwhile, Paddock 9 (6-6, 5th), was at risk of falling into 7th if they lost and got outscored by momma (momma was only 8 points behind them for the point tie-break).

7th > 6th
 Garoppoblow Me

5th > 4th
 Paddock 9

Momma was sent, once again, into the consolation tournament, where they still reside to this day. P9 and PT faced off again in the quarterfinals, where Pain Train won the rematch. GBM made it to the semis, where they were curb-stomped by Glory Bowl VII champion, The Shotti Bunch.

And as we have seen, defending Glory Bowl champions do not fair well in bubble games...

### 2018 - The Death of a Dynasty

The Shotti Bunch (6-6, 7th) faced Duck Punchers (6-6, 5th), with the winner automatically in. Sweet Dee (6-6, 6th) was also guaranteed entry into the Festival of Champions if they could win against Papa's Posse (3rd, 8-4), but also gets in if they could retain season scoring leads over the loser of the TSB vs. DUCK mega-match.

Papa wouldn't even consider throwing the match to help block one of the two former champions. They had an outside shot at a bye spot, if Pain Train (9-3, 2nd) were to fall to rival Paddock 9 (7-5, 4th).

5th > 7th
 Duck Punchers

3rd > 6th
 Papa's Posse

2nd > 4th
 Pain Train

Sweet Dee lost week 13, but caught a break when Duck defeated Shotti on a garbage time 40+ yard completion from Tom Brady to James White. With both Shotti and Sweet Dee losing, it came down to a score tie-breaker. Sweet Dee had the edge by over 100 points, so for the second time in LOC history, Dee clinched the 6-seed as a sub-.500 team.
Duck, with their victory, had helped decide the 2018 Glory Bowl champion. Had they lost, they would have been 6-7 but owned the tie-breaker over 6-7 Sweet Dee. They'd have been the 6th seed, with Shotti as the 5th and Dee eliminated. Instead, that one play to James White got Dee into the tournament. And the rest is history.
This week 13 marked the end of the league's biggest dynasty ever. The Shotti Bunch's shocking fall from grace after three straight Glory Bowls changed the history of the league forever.

### 2019 - Deja Vu All Over Again

Fans of 2017 are in for a treat. Momma (8th seed) is once again going up against GBM (6th seed) with the final playoff spot there for the taking. If GBM wins, they are automatically in with a 7-6 record. If they lose, GBM is automatically out because MMMS will own the points tie-beaker (they currently lead by a narrow 2 points).
RIPDab, at 5-7, is taking on the league leading Duck Punchers (9-3). If Duck wins, they finish the season in first place and win the Commissioners Cup for a record 3rd time. They would also eliminate RIPDab in the process. If RIPDab wins, they can make the playoffs as long as GBM also loses.
Meanwhile, Pain Train and Paddock 9 renew their storied rivalry. Paddock 9, with a win, will prevent Pain Train from getting a first round bye.
Papa has long said if they ever finish last, they'll quit. This week they face Bell of Da Ball, who is contemplating a week 13 tanking in order to have a better shot at facing Pain Train than the more intimidating Paddock 9. If Bell loses, Papa has a good shot at finishing in 9th and playing again in 2020. If Papa loses, who knows what will happen.

## #TankGate

So there is an unconfirmed rumor floating around in the fantasy thread that Butt might try to throw their game against Papa's Posse. By losing and hoping for a GBM win, they could fall to the 6th seed. As the 6, they would face Pain Train (2527.52 points this season) or Shotti (2426.52) instead of finishing 4th or 5th and facing Paddock 9 (2757.67). Of course, if they win they likely play Duck Punchers in the semis. And this league has a history of fucking over people who try to overstrategize.

There are mixed feelings about this move but here is my feeling: as long as whatever actions you are taking are done with the intention of trying to improve your chances of winning the Glory Bowl and conform to the non-collusion laws of the game, I don't see an issue. All is fair in love and war. That being said, I could see this backfiring spectacularly.

## Power Rankings

* X - Secured a Playoff Spot
* Y - Secured a Bye
* E - Eliminated
* APT - Against Playoff Teams

### 1(2). The Duck Punchers (9-3) (Y)

Duck has a bye week locked in due to a one game and 170-point advantage over 3rd place Pain Train. However, they can play spoiler by beating RIPDab and knocking him out of the playoffs. They can also clinch the Commish Cup with a win.

### 2(3). Pain Train (8-4) (X)

The hottest team in the league faces a tough test this week with MVP Lamar Jackson facing that staunch 49ers Defense and he also has to contend with Paddock 9's constant trolling.

### 3(2). Paddock 9 (6-6) (X)

ROAR. The team who told me he "just wants to catch one break" while he was actually winning last week's game vs. RIPDab went on to catch a huge break when Hollywood Brown ran amok against the Rams defense on MNF. P9 is in due to their high point total and they are hoping to keep their nemesis Pain Train out of the bye spot this week with a win.

### 4(5). Garoppoblow Me (6-6)

GBM is the second highest scorer over the last three weeks but after a really tough game on Thanksgiving from Kamara and M.Thomas it is going to take a big showing from his top three picks (OBJ, Gurley, Ingram) in order to stay alive against a MMMS team that is due for a scoring bonanza.

### 5(4). The Shotti Bunch (9-3) (X)

The team with the best record is going against the team with the worst record and I am pretty sure the team with the worst record is better.

### 6(6). The Stupid Idiots (6-6) (X)

It seems like heresy to rank Bell this low but he is tempting the Fantasy Gods so it's hard for me to think of a reason to rank him any higher.

### 7(7). RIPDab (5-7)

The eight season character arc for RIPDab has been one of the more well-written storylines of the LOC show. In 2011, RIPDab came in as the cockiest manager of the bunch (and there were 12 teams back then). He won a shit ton of games in 2011 and 2013 (21-5). But years of losing to Shotti in the playoffs has neutered this #dog and they are a shell of their former selves. In week 12 they lose their 7th game, making it the first time that RIPDab will finish with a losing record in an odd year.

### 8(8). Papa's Posse (3-9) (E)

Papa is none too pleased with the decision by Stupid to attempt benching the win, believing it to be a slap in the face to all his hard work. Papa likes to earn his wins. I was quick to point out that he shouldn't assume his piece of shit team is going to make projections since it's prone to finishing well below them of late.

### 10(10). ma ma momma said (5-7)

Fantasy Gods about to fuck me for trolling momma and ranking him last every week. But at this point the jinx is already in so I might as well lean fully into it. Fuck this shitty one-and-done lookin' ass team. Also congrats on the engagement.

## Matchup of the Week - I Want My Momma

Really quick, since Momma vs. GBM was already highlighted above:

GBM vs. Momma is the matchup of the week. GBM wins, they're in. Momma wins, they are in as long as they can outscore RIP by 44.75 or RIP loses.

Sweet Dee vs. Shotti - The two latest champions go head-to-head for the first time since Sweet Dee's points tie-breaker knocked Shotti out of the playoffs in 2018 for the first time in franchise history. Sweet Dee will not be defending her title, but will hope to honor the Gods with one more Gauntlet victory.

P9 vs. PT - The rivalry some call the dumbest in sports, Paddock 9 and Pain Train can wound each other's playoff chances but not end them today. However, depending on the outcome the seeding will be altered and perhaps set up a rematch as early as next week.

RIP vs. Duck - One seeks a playoff miracle, one seeks the Commissioner's Cup.

Stupid Idiots vs. Papa - The controversial decision to try benching points is one which will surely screw Stupid.

Best of luck to all and to all a good fight.