Development

Despite their brief history, computers and AI have fundamentally changed what we see, what we know, and what we do. Little is as important for the future of the world, and our own lives, as how this history continues.

### From image recognition to image generation

The previous chart showed the rapid advances in the perceptive abilities of artificial intelligence. AI systems have also become much more capable of generating images.

This series of nine images shows the development over the last nine years. None of the people in these images exist; all of them were generated by an AI system.

The series begins with an image from 2014 in the top left, a primitive image of a pixelated face in black and white. As the first image in the second row shows, just three years later AI systems were already able to generate images that were hard to differentiate from a photograph.

In recent years, the capability of AI systems has become much more impressive still. While the early systems focused on generating images of faces, these newer models broadened their capabilities to text-to-image generation based on almost any prompt. The image in the bottom right shows that even the most challenging prompts – such as *“A Pomeranian is sitting on the King’s throne wearing a crown. Two tiger soldiers are standing next to the throne”* – are turned into photorealistic images within seconds.

### Language recognition and production is developing fast

Just as striking as the advances of image-generating AIs is the rapid development of systems that parse and respond to human language.

Shown in the image are examples from an AI system developed by Google called PaLM. In these six examples, the system was asked to explain six different jokes. I find the explanation in the bottom right particularly remarkable: the AI explains an anti-joke that is specifically meant to confuse the listener.

AIs that produce language have entered our world in many ways over the last few years. Emails get auto-completed, massive amounts of online texts get translated, videos get automatically transcribed, school children use language models to do their homework, reports get auto-generated, and media outlets publish AI-generated journalism.

AI systems are not yet able to produce long, coherent texts. In the future, we will see whether the recent developments will slow down – or even end – or whether we will one day read a bestselling novel written by an AI.

### The evolution of artificial intelligence

AI is divided broadly into three stages: artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial super intelligence (ASI).

The first stage, ANI, as the name suggests, is limited in scope with intelligence restricted to only one functional area. ANI is, for example, on par with an infant. The second stage, AGI, is at an advanced level: it covers more than one field like power of reasoning, problem solving and abstract thinking, which is mostly on par with adults. ASI is the final stage of the intelligence explosion, in which AI surpasses human intelligence across all fields.

The transition from the first to the second stage has taken a long time (see chart), but we believe we are currently on the cusp of completing the transition to the second stage - AGI, in which the intelligence of machines can equal humans. This is by no means a small achievement.

### Risk

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize many industries and improve our lives in countless ways. However, there are also some risks associated with AI that need to be addressed.

One of the main risks is the potential for AI to be used in harmful ways, such as in the development of autonomous weapons or the creation of biased algorithms that perpetuate discrimination. There is also the risk of AI systems becoming too powerful and difficult to control, potentially leading to unintended consequences or negative outcomes.

Another risk is the potential for widespread job displacement as AI systems become more advanced and capable of performing tasks that were previously done by humans. This could lead to economic and social disruptions if not managed properly.

Finally, there are also concerns about the ethical implications of AI, such as issues around privacy, transparency, and accountability. As AI becomes more integrated into our daily lives, it is important to ensure that it is developed and used in a responsible and ethical manner.