2019 Parliamentary Elections

The Veldenland 2019 General Election was held in December 2019 and was held following the end of Green Solidarity's first term timed out. Green Solidarity, riding high in polling entered the elections a clear favourite to win, whilst rising star Phoenix formed, filling the void of a gap on the centre-right and offering a strong opposition, polling second. Three other parties, The Conservative Union which had a new leader and had adopted a religious conservative position; The Dutch National Party which had moved to the left and been rising in support since 2017 and The Cooperative Party, an amalgamation of previously conservative left parties, all entered the election in strong third party positions.

The Election left a Hung Parliament, the second in the past three elections. Green Solidarity and the Cooperatives were able to cobble together the most MPs, and thanks to the abstention of the Conservatives, formed a minority government.

## Background

From 2017 to 2019, Green Solidarity held a majority in the House of Representatives and in spite of some crises, such as the 2017 August Destroyer Incident which brought embarassment on the government and two budgets blocked by former President Alyssa Moritz which saw the country enter the 2017-2018 Constitutional Crisis as the question of power lying in Parliament or the Presidency was laid bare. In spite of this, by late 2018, Green Solidarity were seen as very much in control of Government and was able pass meaningful legislation and a budget which introduced Universal Basic Income. By the time the election was called, the Government enjoyed a 22 point lead and 42% in the polls.

Phoenix which had only formed in the early half of 2019, entered the election as the favourite to form the Opposition, and was polling at 20% when the election was called. The Party had attempted to fill the void in the centre-right political landscape that had been left open by the collapse of the New Democrats and the absence of the Conservative Party as a serious right wing party. The party had received much attention early into it's creation as a range of politicians, four Brabant Assembly Members and 4 MPs defected to the newly formed party and gave it a voice in political institutions immediately. Entering the election, the party had caught a moment in Velden Politics, however, faced issues of the return of a competent Conservative Leader.

The Conservative Union had faced a difficult two years following it's first time in Government, trying to rediscover itself. Sebastian Kurz became the leader of the party and lurched the party to the right. Facing ill health and a divided party, he was unable to be an effective Leader of the Opposition and was seen as an absent member of Parliament. In 2018, the South Seafolk By-Election produced a strong result for the Conservatives which was unexpected, but also a strong MP in Aidan Smith, who just half a year later would come to lead the Party. His leadership sought to assert the party on religious issues and strong unionism to reinvigorate the party base, however despite his strong leadership polling continued to decline for the party.

The Dutch National Party had a good term in the 2017 to 2019 Parliament, able to see rising polling and recovery from it's poor two seats in the 2017 Election. Forming a strong opposition, the DNP held the Government's feet to the fire constantly over the August Destroyer Incident and undermined the Government by being ahead of it on Gay Marriage in Brabant. The party moved to the left and saw support in Hoogerheide, a former GS stronghold grow. Some commentators saw parallels with the 2015 SNP who had similairly come to seek to challenge the main centre-left party, Labour, in the United Kingdom. The DNP however faced it's own problems. The Brabant Parliament was without a government after a coalition which they led fell apart. By 2019, the case for devolution was on the decline in spite of the success of the party in pushing for a Referendum on Fiscal Autonomy.

The Cooperative Party were attempting to consolidate the plethora of left conservative parties that had existed since 2015, whilst being the most moderate conservative left party yet. It had effectively split off from the Labour Party which itself was a re-branding of the Social Patriots Union which had become strong in the 2017 Brabant and National Elections. In the 2019 Presidential Election, both the Labour Party and Cooperative Parties stood against one another and both failed to break the 2 digits, with the Cooperatives coming last. In spite of this, Labour disbanded and most its voters moved to the Cooperative Party which boosted its credentials.

Opinion Polling since 2017 showed a rough picture for the challengers. However, the variety of competitors declined dramatically as the 2019 election loomed from more than 7, to just 5 key competitors in the election.

## The Campaign

#### Background of Campaigning

Throughout the campaign, Green Solidarity slowly declined in polling, Phoenix and the DNP surged and the Conservatives and Cooperatives struggled to get attention. Issues around Brabant, Universal Basic Income, Toxicity in Politics, The Environment, Infrastructure Inequality and Faith in Politics were at the forefront of the debate. Campaigning was competitive, and much national attention was given to a number of races, notably Kesmuiden which became swarmed with campaigners from the DNP, Phoenix and Green Solidarity who sought to win this constituency, making national headlines. Phoenix were able to flex the largest campaigning team and fought across Veldenland, from Skoveland in the North to Bredehoven and Zoutelande in the South. The Party attempted to win over seats from all parties and create a path to Government. Green Solidarity were criticized for being too optimistic about their chances and ran a small campaign.

#### Leaders Debate

VNN hosted a leaders debate in which the Leaders of the Major Parties - or in Green Solidarity's case Chancellor Gwen Harmon - debated each other on the major issues. The debate saw the issues of Universal Basic Income, Harmon's flagship policy debated in which the DNP and Phoenix criticized the policy and advocated reform. Gender Inequality was brought up and saw Green Solidarity violently attacked for claiming it bore no responsibility to the Gender Wage Gap. The European Union was debated which saw the DNP and Greens make a pro European argument, Cooperatives an anti-European argument and Phoenix & Conservatives to say the status quo wasn't acceptable, with Phoenix arguing for a referendum. Following this, debate got ugly as a question about toxicity in politics saw Aidan Smith and Kyrsten Sinema clash dramatically as Aidan Smith blocked the moderator from moving on to challenge Sinema's assertion that his party had endorsed Phoenix.

#### Policies

The flagship policies of each party seemed to differ greatly. Green Solidarity ran a campaign of keeping things as it has been for two years and did not release a manifesto for a second election in a row - something which brought it great criticism. Phoenix argued for a Negative Income Tax strongly and focused strongly on discrimination laws and infrastructure. The Conservatives focused on faith based politics, localism and abolition of the Brabant Assembly. The Cooperatives argued for social democracy and soft euroscepticism. DNP argued, as it always has, for the secession of Brabant.

## Results

The Results of the 2019 Election left a hung parliament, with no practical coalition open. Neither the left or the right parties were able to govern without the support of the DNP. Some suggestions of the Cooperatives, Conservatives and Solidarity working together, or a National Government, were shot down very early.

In total, the election was a phyrric victory for the Green Solidarity Party. Although they had won the most seats, they had lost their majority substantially and momentum was strongly against them. Phoenix were seen as big winners of the night, however they were unable to win as many seats as many had suspected they might. The Conservatives were able to become overrepresented, something rare for third parties, as their support was decimated in the cities and liberal areas. The DNP claimed 4 seats, many claim in large part to agreements to stand down which stopped them getting 6 seats and helped Phoenix win 16. Cooperatives won the 5 conservative left seats they were expected to win, but struggled to break out of these areas.