Episode 1182: Turning the Corners

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Rangers’ Tim Lincecum signing, the Phillies’ corner-outfield experiment, and the Royals’ Lucas Duda signing, then follow up on a knuckleball question and answer listener emails about relievers’ and starters’ quality of opponents, an Albert Pujols basestealing challenge, the post-signing aging patterns of free agents, a Rusney Castillo hypothetical, surprising 2018 team projections, an opt-out what-if, teams trading places in divisions, time-traveling players as advanced-stat ambassadors, hand-picking the best three true outcomes, and two Waxahachie Swap scenarios, plus a Stat Blast about Billy Burns and extreme pop-up rates.*

## Topics

* Albert Pujols base stealing hypothetical
* Reliever & starter quality of opponents
* Free agent aging patterns
* Rusney Castillo call-up hypothetical
* 2018 projection surprises
* Billy Burns & pop-up rates
* Team friendly opt-outs
* Trading divisions hypothetical
* Time traveling players
* Three true outcomes hypothetical
* Waxahachie swap hypotheticals

## Banter

* Tim Lincecum was signed by the Texas Rangers.
* Jeff thinks pitchers should start rock climbing as an off-season training regimen.
* The Philadelphia Phillies are experimenting with outfield corner swaps. Discussion about Russell Carleton's 2013 article about whether this is worth it.
* The Kansas City Royals signed Lucas Duda.
* Follow-up from Episode 1179 about pitchers adding a knuckleball.

## Email Questions

* Bobby: "If Albert Pujols decided next season that he was going to try to steal as many bases as he could and he did so by stealing every single time he got to first with no runner in front of him, would he reach 10?  Assume the Angels are for some reason willing to put up with this and play him as much as they would if he were not doing this. On one hand he's very slow and other teams would pretty quickly know he was going but on the other hand I mean plenty of catchers probably screw up the throw right?"
* Chris: "Obviously Chad Green was much better as a reliever than starter and this is true about every pitcher in his situation I can recall. It's assumed that in a RP role that the pitcher can just 'let it fly' and therefore has his stuff play up somewhat. Isn't it likely that a sizable chunk of the decrease in performance as a SP due to an overall higher level of quality in opponents? After all every start sees a pitcher facing 1-4, likely twice whereas any number of relief appearances involve 6-8 or 7-9, etc. Is there any way to quantify this?"

* Leo: "I was discussing the rumor of the Indians trading Edwin Encarnacion with my grandfather. My Grandpa didn’t like this idea because he thinks Edwin will improve this year. I asked why, and said that he thinks that free agents improve in the second year of their contracts because they are more comfortable in the home city and clubhouse. Is there any validity to this?"

* Trevor: "Before Tim Britton left the Providence Journal, he had mentioned something interesting about Rusney Castillo a while back. Castillo's money doesn't count towards the luxury tax, but if he gets called up to the majors, then the money will count and the Red Sox will be over the $237M limit. Obviously unless the Red Sox go over it in the coming weeks, Castillo is pretty much guaranteed to stay in the minors the entire year no matter how well he does. Tim had an interesting question that I wanted you guys to answer though: how many hits in a row would Castillo have to get to begin the season for him to finally get called up to Boston? I feel like it would have to be something extraordinary, because it seems like the Red Sox are going through a lot of effort to avoid the top penalty."
* Cory: "In the interest of giving you some non-economics stuff to talk about, here's a follow-up on the question about how unlikely an outcome has to be before you'd be surprised by it. One of the things you pointed out in your answer was that even if things go as projected, they can happen in a surprising way. While folks might have expected the Yankees to be a wildcard contender last season, no one expected Aaron Judge to be such a big part of that. In addition to this, I think the projected outcomes themselves can be surprising. For example, someone who believes in the Brewers' breakout might think they're better than the projections are saying, and so would be surprised if they turned out to play to their projection. To turn this into a question: last year it seemed like you were surprised by how well the Dodgers projected, are there any teams whose projections surprise you this year?"
* Jonathan: "After reading many comment sections (why I would subject myself to that, I can't explain), I've heard a lot of opinions that think opt-outs are team friendly, especially about the JD Martinez contract. I know the Saber argument is, no, opt-outs are always player-friendly, but can't there be specific circumstances where they can help teams? Let's say JD opts out of the final $60m over 3 years, and his market value would be something like $70m over 3 years, so if he hadn't opted out, he would be a small bargain to Boston. Boston doesn't want to re-sign him at $70m/3 years, because they would rather allocate that money to a Mookie Betts extension, and sign a cheap DH in a buyers market for $5m. I know the argument is that JD has surplus value, and thus would bring back something positive in a trade if he hadn't opted out. But if the surplus value is small and not super obvious, and other big-spending AL teams don't have an opening at DH, it could still be hard to move him. Thus, Boston is happy, because they are able to extend Betts, and able to replace most of JD's production cheaply, and aren't left with an expensive contract that they would have a hard time moving. Is this correct, or is there something else I'm missing?"

* Sam: "I have a question that comes from playing Out of the Park. Recently, I have been playing as the Rockies. Due to some lucky player improvements I have been over the 85 win mark for five years and reached a high of 92. Unfortunately, these 5 years have coincided with a phenomenal Dodgers team that hasn’t dropped below 105 wins during that time. This got me thinking; I am a team built to win now but I'm competing against a behemoth. Meanwhile, the Marlins are tearing down and so don't mind playing the Dodgers regularly, in fact, it'll help their race to a first overall draft pick. I am aware that I am probably about to give the Marlins too much credit here. I could trade my place in the NL West to the Marlins, along with a few prospects and we would both benefit. My question is this, if you could trade division spots; would teams do it? What is a division spot worth? Would the Red Sox or Yankees eat the remaining years and money on Miguel Cabrera's contract in order to move to the AL Central?"
* Jordan: "I have a hypothetical question about advanced stats and specifically shifting.  If a very progressive thinking player say Zack Greinke was teleported to the early 1910's to play on an MLB team and tried to implement an advanced strategy such as the shift, or launch angle increases how do you think it would be received? Would that old school brand of baseball be totally closed minded? With his skill set, he would probably be one of if not the best pitcher in the league, so would that help his case?  What era could he be teleported back to and have success?"
* Sam (Seattle, WA): "We’re seeing a rise in the three true outcomes, which some say means a decrease in excitement. If you could pick any three outcomes as the only possible outcomes to every at bat, what would they be? Go small ball with single, double, and ground out? Go big with home runs, doubles, and fly outs? Go weird with foul outs, infield singles, and dropped third strikes?"

* Dirk: "I was reading Tom Tango, et al's The Book the other night, and was intrigued by the section where he argued that one could create more value by having a platoon at pitcher, playing matchups, and Waxahachie swap Swapping the pitcher in and out of a corner outfield position.  I love this notion.  The Angels are not primed to do it, obviously--their best lefty is Tyler Skaggs and he doesn't project to throw nearly as well.  However, I was thinking what if the angels did a 5 man rotation without Ohtani. Instead, he would platoon with Skaggs and Heaney, their two best left-handed relievers.  Would his number of batting appearances increase this way?  Would this effect the war he generates positively nor negatively?"
* Chris: "On their 40-man roster, the Houston Astros have two corner infielders who were also pitchers in college, JD Davis and AJ Reed. Davis, a righty, can hit for power and play a passable third base. Last year, he got three strikeouts in two scoreless relief appearances. Reed, a lefty,  has yet to prove he can hit in the majors, but he was an acclaimed two-way player in college, winning the Golden Spikes award. He was arguably the Astros top prospect as recently as 2016. And he is reportedly "in the best shape of his life" this year in spring training. The presence of these two players on the roster opens up the possibility of a Waxahachie platoon. Davis and Reed could switch back and forth between pitcher and first base, functioning in effect as a switch pitcher.  Of course, the Astros would have to forfeit the DH to pull this off, or happen to be playing an interleague game on the road. But still. What are the chances of the Astros doing this in a game? How good would Davis and Reed have to be for the Astros to do this regularly?"

## Stat Blast

* Billy Burns has been a ground ball hitter for most of his career, but has been a "pop-up machine". 21.7% of Burns' fly balls have been pop-ups.
* Jeff wanted to see who was 'getting the most out of their pop-ups' by looking at the difference between home run rate per fly ball and pop-up rate per fly ball.
* Aaron Judge has a home run rate of 28% higher than his pop-up rate.
* Lenny Harris has a pop-up rate of 24.8% higher than his home run rate.

## Notes

* A fly ball hit to the pull side is more likely to be hit harder (and be a hit) than those hit to the opposite field.
* Ben & Jeff agree that Albert Pujols would not get the 10 steals needed in the hypothetical scenario.
* Hitters faced by relievers were slightly better than hitters faced by starters (103 vs. 101 RPA+)
* Ben is surprised at how high the Blue Jays are projected for 2018. Jeff is surprised by the Brewers projection.
* Ben & Jeff's three true outcomes: Singles, triples, and robbed home runs.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1182: Turning the Corners
* The Corner-Outfield Inefficiency by Russell Carleton
* The Phillies have seen the future and it includes mid-inning outfield position changes; Hoskins: 'It's definitely different'by Matt Gelb
* Whether to Waxahachie by Russell Carleton