What if~The Bay of Pigs was successful?

\*sigh\* Yes, I know what you're thinking. Another alternate scenario wiki page about the Cold War. Well, the Cold War was one of the most complex eras in the history of Mankind, an era of distrust and conspiracies.

The 1960s is when the Cold War reached its apex, and it's all thanks to Fidel Castro and his communist regime he set up in Cuba in the early 60s and one of the leading causes of the "Cuban Missile Crisis". Even when his regime in Cuba was new, the United States tried (and failed) to stop him. This event was known as the "Bay of Pigs Invasion"

And, no, this isn't about a bay with actual Pigs on it. It's just a name of a place in Cuba.

But, what if in an alternate scenario, the Bay of Pigs Invasion did succeed? What would happen to Cuba, and what effects it will have on the Cold War? This is what this wiki page will try to cover. But first (and always) some historical context. If you just want to read about the alternate scenario, just scroll to the "What if?" part of this page.

## Real History

Throughout the 1950s, Fidel Castro and his partner in the Cuban Revolution; Ernesto "Che" Guevara defeated Fulgencio Batista and his totalitarian regime by 1958.

As you may already know that Castro defeated one dictatorship, only to replace it with another; his own. Thus, Cuba became a communist nation.

Along with bringing ethnical and gender equality which Batista denied. He also nationalized Cuba's banks and took personal control of the nation's exports such as Oil, Sugar, and Coffee among other things. he also became "Bosom Buddies" with Nikita Khrushchev and the USSR, and (as said before) was one of the leading factors to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

You may also know that in the USA, the Red Scare was in full swing in the 1950s as Russia and China fell to communism (creating the "Domino Theory"), and felt that they must stop communism from taking over the world.

In March of 1961, President Eisenhower had approved around $13 Million to the "Central Intelligence Agency" (or CIA for short) to come up with a plan to overthrow Castro's newly created communist regime.

A month later, a paramilitary force called the "Brigade 2506" (which is an American-led, anti-communist force) with 1,400 troops launched from Guatemala and Nicaragua to land on the shores of Cuba in an area called the "Bay of Pigs" which is around 90 miles southeast of Cuba's capital; Havana.

The invasion would go on for around 3 days, and things quickly went south for the invading armies of Brigade 2506, plus John F. Kennedy was reluctant to send the forces air support. Eventually, on April 20, 1961, the Brigade 2506 surrendered, and the invasion was put off indefinitely.

## What if?

Now, here's your favorite question. What if the invasion succeeded and secured a foothold in Cuba?

Let's say in this alternate reality, Kennedy doesn't hold back air support and bombs strategic places for the Cuban communists, allowing the Brigade 2506 and the US Forces backing them up to topple the communists and storm Havana. They also overthrow Castro and his communist government, now what?

Well, Cuba wouldn't immediately turn democratic. Why? Castro had a lot of support from the Cuban population as Batista's regime wasn't popular (it led to the deaths of around 20,000 Cuban people by the way) and Cubans were happy to seem him go. Though, Castro's regime was in just a few ways different than Batista's but people supported Castro since it was (in the eyes of Cubans) better than Batista.

If the Bay of Pigs invasion was successful, Cuba would dissolve into a Civil War; the Anti-Communists vs. the Pro-Communists. Because of this, this hypothetical "Cuban Civil War" would also be another Proxy War as it'll be "sponsored in part by" the USA and the USSR, meaning both sides would be given money and weapons from their respective supporters.

Now, with research on the Bay pf Pigs invasion, the Cold War and theorizing, I have to split this scenario into 2 separate scenarios. One where the Pro-Communists win the Cuban Civil War, and another where the anti-communists win.

### Scenario 1: Communists Win

I'm going to discuss the scenario where Castro's communists win the Cuban Civil War, because it's kinda uninteresting and little would change.

In this scenario, Castro's communists beat the Anti-Communist rebels. What happens is similar to what happened in our reality with the failure of the Bay of Pigs Invasion. The communist victory in the Cuban Civil War would cement Castro's grip on power in Cuba.

So, the Cuban Missile Crisis would still happen, just a few years later than in our reality.

Just like in our reality with the failure of the Bay of Pigs, the defeat of the anti-communists in the Cuban Civil War would be a huge blow to American Foreign Policy as they have failed to stop the communists.

There's also a possibility where the USA wouldn't gt involved in the Vietnam War, seeing the kind of mistakes the US had made in the Cuban Civil War and don't want to risk making those same mistakes again. If this happens, South Vietnam would fall a few years earlier than in our reality. Further tainting America's image on the global scale.

Yet again, America may actually get involved in Vietnam even in this alternate reality, and get \*more\* involved to try to learn from their mistakes in Cuba, either dragging out the war for a few more years, or even driving the North Vietnamese back. Again, it's a counter-argument due to the "Domino Theory".

Okay, scenario over.

### Scenario 2: Anti-Communists win

This scenario will talk about if the anti-communists won this hypothetical civil war in Cuba. The Anti-Communists defeat the communists, storm Havana, and Castro is either captured or executed (or both).

One thing's for sure, no Cuban Missile Crisis. There, said and done.

But, its more complicated than that. Because the United States backed up the Brigade 2506, more than likely, they would set up some kind of occupation in Cuba, at least for a few years after the civil war.

We have to talk about a man named "Manuel Artime"; the leader of the Brigade 2506, and would more than likely lead the anti-communists in this hypothetical Cuban Civil War, and in this scenario with the anti-communists' victory, would more than likely be the leader of this new US-created Cuban puppet government.

But things in Cuba won't be that "Perfect land of Sunshine and Rainbows" as there will still be a lot of Cubans that support Castro, and hate to have another American occupation in their beloved nation.

As you may already know from my other wiki pages, the relationship between the US and Cuba has been........"complicated" to say the least, the US took Cuba from Spain after the Spanish-American War and for a while was American Territory. That changed in 1940 when Cuba declared independence as they came up with a constitution of their own. After Batista took over, he suspended the 1940 constitution and formed his own regime, but during his reign, he allowed American Companies (namely criminal organizations) to run their lewd businesses in Cuba. As said before, Castro's regime changed all of that.

In this alternate reality, America would once again have influence in Cuba. Though not on the scale that was seen during Batista's reign.

Cuba could deal with some of the same problems South Korea dealt with in our reality after the Korean War. Though, Cuba may not deal with constant regime changes, but with Pro-Castro supporters in Cuba, the nation's political situation could keep this democratic Cuba unstable for a few decades, at least up to the mid to late 1980s.

By the end of the 20th century and into the 21st (and with the death of the USSR), a democratic Cuba could turn into a thriving nation very similar to South Korea in our reality, and Havana would also become a thriving metropolis that can be bigger than any other city in Central America.

Of course, these are just 2 of many \*many\* possible scenarios. But, if the Bay of Pigs did succeed, Cuba would definitely descend into civil war, and would just be another Proxy War for America and the USSR to sponsor.

That'll do it for this alternate scenario. What do you think would happen if the Bay of Pigs invasion succeeded. Don't forget to check out my Games and Movies wikis as well. Until next time, this is JohnnyOTGS signing out.