2015 United Kingdom General Election

The **2015 United Kingdom general election** was held on Thursday, 7 May 2015 to elect 650 members to the House of Commons. It was the first general election at the end of a fixed-term Parliament.

Polls and commentators had predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would result in a second consecutive hung parliament that would be either similar or more complicated than the 2010 election. Having governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, the Conservatives won only 261 seats and 31% of the vote share, giving them the smallest share of seats since 2005.

The Labour Party, led by Angela Rayner, saw an increase in its share of the vote to 38%, and a net gain of seats to return 302 MPs, making them the largest party (although without a majority) and allowing Angela Rayner to become the second female Prime Minister in history and the first to come from the Labour Party. The Scottish National Party, enjoying a surge in support since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, as it won 44 of the 59 Scottish seats to become the third-largest party in the Commons.

The Liberal Democrats, led by Elaine Little-Brown, had their worst result since their formation in 1988, holding just twelve out of their previous 57 seats. Nigel Farage succeeded in winning the seat of South Thanet (although as an Independent, not part of UKIP). The Green Party won its highest-ever share of the vote with 6% and won two new seats. The Conservative's Spiffing. In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party returned to the Commons with ten MPs after a five-year absence, while the Alliance Party lost its only seat.

## Election process

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) led to the dissolution of the 55th Parliament and the scheduling of the election on 7 May, the House of Commons not having voted for an earlier date.

All British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over the age of 18 on the date of the election were permitted to vote. In general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect members of parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the dominant (historically termed the lower) house of Parliament. Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the "first-past-the-post" system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.

Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act. Of the 650 constituencies, 533 were in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current "first-past-the-post" system to an alternative vote (instant-runoff) system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum. The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change. The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first-past-the-post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500, and for them to be elected using a proportional system.

Ministers increased the amount of money that parties and candidates were allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice. The election saw the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which the Conservative Party spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.

This was the first UK general election to use individual rather than household voter registration.

## Contesting political parties and candidates

### Overview

As of 9 April 2015, the deadline for standing for the general election, the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties included 428 political parties registered in Great Britain, and 36 in Northern Ireland. Candidates who did not belong to a registered party could use an "independent" label, or no label at all.

The Conservative Party and the Labour Party had been the two biggest parties since 1922, and had supplied all UK Prime Ministers since 1935. Polls predicted that these parties would together receive between 62% and 72% of votes, and would together win between 84% and 89% of seats; and that, as such, the leader of one of those parties would be the prime minister after the election. The Liberal Democrats had been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties had risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election. *The Economist* described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Greens and the Scottish National Party (SNP). *Newsnight* and *The Economist* described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, ruled that, for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain were the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru (PC) in Wales, and that the Greens were not a major party. The BBC's guidelines were similar but excluded UKIP from the category of "larger parties" in Great Britain, and instead stated that UKIP should be given "appropriate levels of coverage in output to which the largest parties contribute and, on some occasions, similar levels of coverage". Political parties based in Northern Ireland were ignored, despite the DUP being the fourth largest party in the UK in the previous election, in terms of seats won, and the UUP almost gaining the same number of seats as the Liberal Democrats in this election.

### National

Several parties operate in specific regions only. The main national parties, standing for seats across all (or most of) the country, are listed below:

* Conservative Party: led by Elliot Spiffing, the Prime Minister. The Conservative Party was the larger party in the coalition government, having won the most seats (306) at the 2010 election. The party stood in 631 seats (every seat except for in Northern Ireland and the Speaker's seat).
* Labour Party: led by Angela Rayner, the Leader of the Opposition. Labour had been in power from 1997 to 2010. The party constituted Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition (also called the Official Opposition) after the 2010 election, having won 258 seats. It stood in 631 constituencies, missing only the Speaker's seat. The Labour Party does not stand candidates for election in Northern Ireland.
* Liberal Democrats: led by Elaine Little-Brown. The Liberal Democrats were the junior member of the 2010–15 coalition government, having won 57 seats. They contested the same 631 seats as the Labour Party. The party did not stand candidates in Northern Ireland.
* United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP): led by Richard Tice, who had not previously been in parliament. UKIP won the fourth-most votes at the 2010 election, but failed to win any seats. It subsequently won two seats at by-elections in 2014—both having been sitting Conservative MPs who resigned from the party, stood down voluntarily from their seat to fight a by-election, and won it for their new party - and won the highest share of votes at the 2014 European elections. It contested 631 seats across the United Kingdom.
* Green Party: Led by Oscar Martin, who had not previously been elected to Westminster. The Greens stood in 649 seats.

#### Minor parties

Dozens of other minor parties stood in 2015. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, founded as an electoral alliance of socialist parties in 2010, had 135 candidates and was the only other party to have more than forty candidates. Respect came into the election with one MP (George Galloway), who was elected at the 2012 Bradford West by-election, but stood just four candidates. The British National Party, which finished fifth with 1.9% of the vote for its 338 candidates at the 2010 general election, stood only eight candidates following a collapse in support. 754 other candidates stood at the general election, including all independents, Scottish-based, Northern Ireland-based and Wales-based party candidates, and candidates from other parties.

### Northern Ireland

The main parties in Northern Ireland (which had 18 constituencies) described by Ofcom, the BBC and others were:

* Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): in 2010 the UUP shared an electoral alliance with the Conservative Party, and finished fourth in terms of votes in Northern Ireland, but won no seats. The party has one MEP, having placed third in the 2014 European elections. It was fourth in the 2011 Assembly elections. The UUP contested all 18 seats.
* Sinn Fein: Sinn Fein won the most votes in Northern Ireland in 2010, but came second in seats, winning five constituencies. It was second in the 2011 Assembly elections, but first in the 2014 European elections. The party also operates in the Republic of Ireland, where it does take seats in parliament. It was standing in all 18 Northern Irish constituencies.

Smaller parties in Northern Ireland included Traditional Unionist Voice (standing in seven seats) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (standing in five seats). In 2015 TUV and the Greens each held one seat in the Legislative Assembly. The North Down seat was retained by independent Sylvia Hermon. The Northern Ireland Conservatives and UKIP fielded candidates, whereas Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not contest elections in Northern Ireland.

### Scotland

* Scottish National Party (SNP): led by Andrew McCoy. The SNP only contested seats in Scotland and stood in all 59 Scottish constituencies. The party received the second-most votes in Scotland and sixth-most overall in 2010, winning six seats. It won the 2011 election to the Scottish Parliament and had a surge of support since the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014, in which it was the main political party behind the losing Yes campaign. Most projections suggested that it would be the third-largest party overall after the 2015 election, in terms of seats won, overtaking the Liberal Democrats.

Smaller parties in Scotland include the Scottish Libertarian Party, but none of the smaller parties make much of an impact in general elections in Scotland.

### Wales

* Plaid Cymru: led by Caryl Davies. Plaid Cymru organises only in Wales, where it contested all forty Welsh constituencies. The party has three MPs and was fourth in Wales (eighth overall) by vote share in 2010, later finishing third in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections.

Wales has a number of smaller parties which, again, do not tend to make much impact in the general elections. In 2015, the Labour Party continued to dominate Welsh politics at the general elections.

## Campaign

### Constitutional affairs

The Conservative manifesto committed to "a straight in-out referendum on our membership of the European Union by the end of 2017". Labour also supported this commitment. The Lib Dems were against this position, and explicitly supported the UK's continuing membership of the EU.

In relation to Scotland, the Conservative manifesto also stated "and the question of Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom is now settled". None of the three major party manifestos supported a second referendum.

### Government finance

The deficit, who was responsible for it and plans to deal with it were a major theme of the campaign. While many parties and politicians opposed austerity, the Conservatives did claim that it was necessary.

Conservative campaigning sought to blame the deficit on the previous Labour government. Labour, in return, sought to establish their fiscal responsibility. With the Conservatives also making several spending commitments (*e.g.* on the NHS), commentators talked of the two main parties' "political crossdressing", each trying to campaign on the other's traditional territory.

### Possibility of a Hung Parliament

Hung Parliaments have been unusual in post-War British political history, but with the outgoing Government a coalition and opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, it was widely expected and predicted throughout the election campaign that no party would gain an overall majority, which could have led to a new coalition or other arrangements such as confidence and supply agreements. This was also associated with a rise in multi-party politics, with increased support for UKIP, the SNP and the Greens.

The question of what the different parties would do in the event of a hung result dominated much of the campaign. Smaller parties focused on the power this would bring them in negotiations; Labour and the Conservatives both insisted that they were working towards winning a majority government, while they were also reported to be preparing for the possibility of a second election in the year. In practice, Labour were prepared to make a "broad" offer to the Liberal Democrats in the event of a hung Parliament. Most predictions saw Labour as having more potential support in Parliament than the Conservatives, with several parties, notably the SNP, having committed to keeping out a Conservative government.

Conservative campaigning sought to highlight what they described as the dangers of a minority Labour administration supported by the SNP, the "coalition of chaos". This proved to not be effective in stopping Labour from winning.

The Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties rejected the idea of a coalition with the SNP. This was particularly notable for Labour, to whom the SNP had previously offered support: their manifesto stated that "the SNP will never put the Tories into power. Instead, if there is an anti-Tory majority after the election, we will offer to work with other parties to keep the Tories out".

The Liberal Democrats said that they would talk first to whichever party won the most seats. They later campaigned on being a stabilising influence should either the Conservatives or Labour fall short of a majority, although they were becoming more friendly towards Labour after they left the coalition.

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats ruled out coalitions with UKIP. UKIP say they could support a minority Conservative government through a confidence and supply arrangement in return for a referendum on EU membership before Christmas 2015. They also spoke of the DUP joining UKIP in this arrangement. UKIP and DUP said they would work together in Parliament. They opposed the SNP being involved in government. The UUP also indicated that they would not work with the SNP if it wanted another independence referendum in Scotland.

The Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party all ruled out working with the Conservatives, and agreed to work together "wherever possible" to counter austerity. Sinn Féin changed their abstentionist stance (altough four of their candidates stated that they would still abstain and not take the oath).

## Exit poll

An exit poll, collected by Ipsos MORI and GfK on behalf of the BBC, ITN and Sky News, was published at 10 pm at the end of voting:

This predicted the Labour Party to be 18 seats short of an absolute majority.

## Results

After all 650 constituencies had been declared, the results were:

The following table shows final election results