recursal/Fanatic-Fandom huggingface dataset:
Atlantic/2015/02L/Archive/13

## Public advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

10:00 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...BILL CONTINUES INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 10:00AM CDT...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION... 34.9N 96.2W

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 KT...30 MPH...50 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE AT 6 KT...7 MPH...11 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 10:00 am CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at 34.9N, 96.2W, or about 85 miles (135 kilometers) east-southeast of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph, 50 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1002 millibars (hPa; 29.59 inHg), and the system was moving north-northeast at 6 knots (7 mph, 11 km/h).

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 400 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

## Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

10:00 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

There has been little change with Bill over the past few hours. The cyclone continues to remain in tact, with mesonet stations across Oklahoma highlighting a defined low-level circulation. Surface observations continue to support an initial intensity of 25 kt and a pressure near 1002 mb. Over the coming days, Bill is expected to turn northeast and eventually east-northeast in advance of an upper-level trough. The only change to the previous forecast package is to show an earlier post-tropical transition.

INIT 18/1500Z 34.9N 96.2W 25KT 30MPH

12H 19/0000Z 35.7N 95.0W 25KT 30MPH

24H 19/1200Z 36.3N 93.7W 20KT 25MPH

36H 20/0000Z 37.0N 91.9W 20KT 25MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 20/1200Z 38.1N 88.3W 20KT 25MPH...POST-TROPICAL

72H 21/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

Forecaster TAWX14
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/1

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 5 2018

The area of disturbed weather located about halfway between the Leeward Islands and Cabo Verde has acquired sufficient organization to be declared a tropical depression. A 2311Z ASCAT pass showed that, while the low-level circulation was not closed off, it was very close to doing so. More recently, enhanced shortwave imagery shows cyclonic low-level motion to the south and east of the suspected center, confirming that it is well defined. A series of microwave passes throughout the day shows that the system has a vigorous mid-level circulation, and conventional imagery depicts organized and persistent deep convection. Thus, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression with winds of 30kt. It should be noted that the earlier ASCAT pass showed winds of tropical storm force; however, it is unknown how reliable these are.

The depression is moving swiftly west-northwest, steered by two mid-level ridges over the open Atlantic to its north. This motion should continue through the forecast period, steering the system near or through the northeastern Caribbean Islands by day 5, where enhanced precipitation will be possible. Significant impacts, however, are not expected.

Two is currently located in a marginally favorable environment. Anticyclonic flow is established aloft, keeping shear very low; the small size of the storm would make it even more susceptible to shear than average storms, and there is little evidence of that at the current time, confirming that upper-level winds nearby are indeed light. The storm is maintaining a healthy moisture pouch, with aid from the monsoon trough to its south and east. Water temperatures are around 26°C, slightly cooler than average for this time of the year. This environment should allow Two to persist or perhaps strengthen slightly over the next 36 hours. By Saturday, however, it should begin to interact with an anomalously strong TUTT near the Caribbean, and shear is expected to skyrocket to near 30kt. While waters will be warmer, mid-level relative humidity values are expected to fall to near 50 percent. Therefore, degeneration to a remnant low or trough is all but guaranteed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 05/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 06/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 06/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 07/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/46

Dorian continues to make the most of its opportunities. It sports a large eye and an increasingly symmetric central dense overcast with still impressive outflow in all directions. Although aircraft reconnaissance support Dorian holding intensity, these occurred nearly three hours ago and improvements in satellite presentation since then lead me to believe Dorian has intensified further, so the initial intensity has been raised to 105 kt.
Wind shear should remain fairly low today but it is expected to increase drastically tomorrow. In combination with land interaction and dry air entrainment in an increasingly dry environment and increasingly nearer to land which will be a source of further dry air and cooling sea surface temperatures, Dorian is expected to begin a steady weakening trend late today or tomorrow. Until then, Dorian's current stint as a major hurricane is likely to continue, with a little more intensification possible still, which may cause problems for the North and South Carolina coasts. Very hostile wind shear by 48h and Dorian's entry into a baroclinic environment will cause the storm to weaken and begin extratropical transition, which should be completed by the end of day 3.
Dorian is tracking north-northeast, executing its northeastward turn. With falling heights to the north of the storm and a strong mid-level ridge to the southeast, it should accelerate northeast, approaching the coast of North Carolina and making landfall in the Outer Banks around 24-30 hours from now. It will continue to accelerate northeast, approaching Nova Scotia as a strong extratropical cyclone.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/4

After lacking deep convection for most of the past few hours, Chantal has begun firing shower and thunderstorm activity in recent satellite frames, although this activity is concentrated north of the center. Satellite intensity estimates do not support a tropical storm, and given that last night's ASCAT pass showed only borderline tropical storm-force winds, the decrease in organization since that time supports lowering the initial intensity to 30kt. The environment around Chantal will undergo changes over the coming days as upper-level winds decrease and ocean temperatures increase. Given the abundance of dry air, however, strengthening is not anticipated, and Chantal should instead degenerate to a remnant low within 72 hours.
The system is moving quickly eastward and will continue on that trajectory for the coming hours, sandwiched between a strengthening mid-level ridge to its south and an eastward-tracking upper-level trough to its north. Beginning tomorrow, Chantal should gradually curve toward the south. This will be mirrored by a turn toward the north and eventually northeast after 72 hours.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/1

The high-latitude area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Chantal. While the disturbance had been producing organized deep convection since the early morning hours, an ASCAT pass around 15z showed that the circulation was perhaps poorly defined, or possibly even in the midst of a relocation. A later pass indicates a well-defined and closed low, accompanied by 35kt winds. Thus, although the extent of deep convection has decreased relative to earlier, advisories are initiated on the season's fourth tropical storm, ending an unusual streak of tropical cyclone-less activity in the basin.
Chantal is embedded in the upper-level westerlies, closely positioned next to an upper-level trough facing eastward as well. Over the coming days, this trough will continue in the same general direction, but a mid-level ridge over the north-central Atlantic will intensify. Flow on the north side of this high will push Chantal east through 24 hours, with a turn toward the southeast thereafter. By days 3-5, models are in decent agreement Chantal or its remnants may become stationary to the southwest of the Azores.
As of right now, Chantal does not seem poised for much intensification. Upper-level winds are hostile, on the order of 20kt in the near term. These values are forecast to decrease to very favorable levels by day 3, and that decrease will coincide with an increase in ocean temperatures to around 27C. Thus, the only limiting factor is expected to be mid-level relative humidity values. This is a significant barrier, though, since values are expected to be bone dry in the mid-30s to near 40 percent. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF are in agreement against the idea of intensification, a separate solution from the SHIPS and LGEM which indicate some is possible. Given the magnitude of dry air, I find it hard to believe that strengthening is likely. Thus, I show Chantal hanging on as a tropical depression or storm for the next 4 days, with degeneration on day 5. This is a low confidence forecast.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/3

Chantal continues its eastward trawl of the far northern Atlantic, traversing 25-26C sea surface temperatures. In the last few hours, strong upper-level flow has exposed the low-level center of circulation, and is reflected in deep-layer mean wind shear values are estimated between 20-30 kt. Given that the storm's strongest winds have often occurred in deep convection-free areas, the intensity for this advisory remains at 35 kt, keeping Chantal a minimal tropical storm.
No change to the track forecast this advisory given consistent steering parameters. As a relatively shallow system, Chantal is predominantly steered by the low-level Bermuda ridge to its south. As the tropical storm rounds the periphery of this feature, it is expected to curve towards the southeast beginning in a day's time, while an incoming frontal system is expected to induce a northward tug in about 3-4 days. The net result of these two events is a cyclonic loop towards the latter-half of the forecast, which is featured well across the track guidance.
Conditions are predominantly hostile in the northern Atlantic, characterized by an exceptionally dry environment and high wind shear. The inhibition from cool sea surface temperatures is negated somewhat by a cold upper-air environment with temperatures near -55C, resulting in deep-layer thermal differences near 80C, supporting much of the convection we saw yesterday and this morning in the absence of other favorables. The environment should remain in this marginal to unfavorable zone throughout the remainder of Chantal's existence. Increasing thermodynamic stability in the short-term may result in some weakening, and the forecast shows weakening to a tropical depression in a day. At around 48-72 hours, some of the dynamical guidance indicates possible alignment with an upper-level low, and I would not be surprised if we saw a transition to a more subtropical character during that time, coupled with some baroclinic intensification of the winds.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/4

An aircraft reconnaissance mission into the storm has found that Karen has dissipated back into a strong open wave. Given us here at WHPC are not bound to human psychological impacts of degenerating a storm that will likely bring tropical storm impacts to places later down the line we can follow what science says. Science says Karen is now an open wave and is no longer a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory for the time being.
Karen is expected, but it is not guaranteed, to redevelop into a tropical cyclone as it exits the northeast Caribbean. In fact, assuming the circulation does not fully dissipate, it seems very likely that Karen will regenerate. With this in mind, I am writing this advisory assuming Karen will be a tropical cyclone again by day 2. Around 36 hours, the strong shear that killed Karen is expected to lessen and the storm will be in a low shear, 65-70% RH environment that favours strengthening. Intensity models, and some global models, show that the storm will continue strengthening throughout days 3 to 5 despite entering an increasingly dry environment. Our intensity forecast mirrors the consensus on days 2 to 5.
Recon fixes have been unable to find any solid centre, so it is really impossible to get a clear idea of Karen's movement. The storm is expected to move north into a weakness in a ridge caused by Jerry tonight until day 3. After this, a ridge is expected to build over top of Karen and turn her westward. This is a complicated forecast but models are remaining relatively consistent in this. Some outliers do keep the system heading north, and others show the system interacting with Jerry. Track forecast has the storm heading westward between days 4 and 5 but this is of low confidence.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
Atlantic/2018/05L/Archive/3

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Ernesto continues to undergo tropical transition, with moderate to deep convection developing closer to the center. However, there are still no signs of upper-level outflow expanding outward, and a recent ASCAT pass shows that maximum winds remain dislocated from the center. The initial intensity is held at 35kt in accordance with ST2.5/35kt from TAFB. Some intensification is expected over the next day as Ernesto continues its tropical transition over marginally warm waters and in low wind shear, but as the storm accelerates northeast into a more unfavorable environment, it should degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours. A merging with a frontal system from the west is expected in about 3 days.

INIT 16/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 16/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

24H 17/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 17/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 19/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
Atlantic/2019/03L/Archive/2

Poof. Shortly after the issuance of the first advisory, deep convection associated with Tropical Depression Three began to wane. That trend has continued through the time of this advisory, and all that remains at this point is some high clouds. Surface observations indicate that a closed and well-defined circulation remains, but that the pressure has likely risen even further this evening. Given the lack of convection, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25kt. While wind shear will remain light and ocean temperatures will remain warm for the next day, unfavorable surface flow from an approaching front is likely to elongate the surface center, resulting in dissipation sooner than originally anticipated. The time of dissipation reflected in the updated forecast may yet be generous. The remnants of Three should be absorbed in the front shortly thereafter.
The depression is moving northwest around the western edge of a mid-level ridge across the central Atlantic. As the aforementioned front approaches, the depression should curve northeast. Few models maintain Three as a coherent system past 24 hours, but it seems plausible that the cyclone or its remnants could scrape the coastline of eastern North Carolina before being whisked northeast.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/6

Tropical Storm Karen has become significantly better organized this afternoon. Extremely deep convection, cooler than -80C, has been firing since around the time of the previous advisory; this convection is decently organized as well. Spiral banding features have become much more distinct throughout the southern semicircle, and the circulation is substantially more coherent on San Juan radar. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found flight-level winds of 53kt and SFMR values of 45-50kt. The latter value, however, may have been at least influenced by the very high rain rates ongoing in the deep convection. Therefore, the initial intensity has only been slightly increased to 40kt until a new plane can confirm or debunk those measurements.
Upper-level outflow is now expanding in all directions, an indication vertical wind shear continues to decrease. Some mid-level shear is likely to persist throughout the next 5 days, but this should not be enough to deter further organization given ocean temperatures of 28-29C and an adequately moist environment. By days 4 and 5, mid-level relative humidity values will fall to unfavorable levels. However, if Karen is a bonafide tropical cyclone by that time, it may be able to better handle the marginal environment. I have increased the forecast intensities at most time frames during this advisory, and I have decided to remove the idea of weakening on day 5. The biggest change since the previous advisory has been an uptick in modeled strength by dynamical guidance, which is more supportive of the idea of a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane than earlier.
Karen is positioned on the western edge of a mid-level ridge east of the Caribbean, and it is moving toward a broad mid-level weakness created by Tropical Storm Jerry and a nearby trough. Karen is currently on a northward heading, but this trajectory may become more north-northeast once the cyclone exits the Caribbean, concurrent with the eastward progression of the aforementioned trough. After day 3, expansive high pressure should build across the South United States and western Atlantic, forcing Karen abruptly toward the west or perhaps even west-southwest. There is still an opportunity that, if troughing lingers longer than currently anticipated, Karen could escape toward the northeast as shown by the UKMET. This appears to be an outlier solution and less likely than yesterday though.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
Atlantic/2019/11L/Archive/5

Imedla's circulation has been losing definition over the Piney Woods of East Texas this afternoon. While satellite images show a rather well-organized convective structure, surface observations show that the cyclonic wind field has deteriorated significantly, with only marginal 5 kt winds near the center of circulation. Radar imagery shows that decoupling of the vertical circulation is commencing. Still, the system is still closed at the surface and sufficiently organized to warrant continued advisories as a tropical depression, at least for now. Peak winds of 20 kt are assessed on the basis of 25-30 kt winds occurring aloft west of Beaumont from the KHGX radar site. Imelda is expected to open into a trough later today, and remain in southeast Texas, slowly moving north along a weak anticyclone steering current before dissipating in two days.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/0600Z 15 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 15 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/01Q/Archive/8

Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

12:00 PM AST Mon Mar 25 2019

Iba continues to feel the effects of strong northwesterly winds this morning as the tropical storm's central convection has struggled to spread over the low-level center of circulation, elaving it exposed to the northwest. The somewhat unfavorable upper-level winds are being induced by both the subtropical jet to Iba's south and a local vorticity maximum in the broader trough to Iba's north that is both robbing Iba of some of its convergence and producing counteractive outflow aloft. Still, Iba is producing deep convection with some cloud tops cooler than -80C, which has continued on the heels of the overnight convective growth. Both SAB and independent Dvorak analyses have yielded a T3.0/45 kt intensity estimate, but the relative lack of improvement since the last advisory and the rather unconvincing scatterometer data overnight suggest fixing Iba's at 40 kt.

Iba is drifting slowly towards the south-southwest, tracing out the periphery of a distant 588 dm subtropical ridge over the central South Atlantic. While Iba is rather removed from the polar steering current, a shortwave and longwave trough cresting in phase later this week should be enough to begin pulling Iba towards the southeast. The GFS and ECMWF have swapped roles in the latest guidance suite, with the GFS depicting the storm filling aggressively and thus recurivng north Friday while the ECMWF transitions the system into a baroclinic cyclone towards Tristan da Cunha. The current track forecast is for Iba to accelerate southeast, in line with the ECMWF and most ensembles. Iba is expected to more fully detach from its parental trough over the course of the day today and will do so at the expense of moisture content, a potent mix when combined with the system's sheared state. Wind shear is expected to increase quite substantially as it intercepts the subtropical jet, resulting in column shear averages of over 25 kt. The current intensity forecast depicts a final window of possible slight intensification today before hostile conditions set in after day 2. Some reintensification is possible late in the forecast window as an extratropical system due to baroclinic processes.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 26/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 26/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 27/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

48H 27/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 28/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

96H 29/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 30/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/42

Aircraft reconnaissance has found Dorian weaker still this morning. Flight-level winds near 95 kt and SFMR near 80 kt suggest the hurricane has an intensity of 85 kt currently, keeping it a category 2 just barely. On satellite, the storm continues to suffer from the effects of dry, stable air generated by its upwelling over the past few days. The system's eye has opened up entirely on the southwest side as a result of a dry slot reaching the inner core of the system. This is mostly a mid-level feature, though as the storm does not appear quite as affected on radar reflectivity.
Not much has changed regarding the intensity forecast for Dorian. Radar shows the core of the hurricane still mostly in tact and with the storm moving over warmer waters in a somewhat moist environment of low shear, some reintensification is possible over the next day or so. Tomorrow though, shear is expected to increase which will inject further dry air into the storm and resume the weakening trend. Land interaction will also act to weaken the storm beyond day 2. Extratropical transition is expected on day 4.
Dorian is tracking north-northwest, with this motion expected to continue for the next day. This will result in some coastal impacts along the east coast of Florida. Around 36h, the storm will be approaching South Carolina, where more significant impacts are expected. Dorian should turn toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a mid-level trough and this will allow it to parallel the coast of the Carolinas, likely offshore initially but a landfall is still most likely as the storm approaches North Carolina. Effects in the two states will be more severe than in Florida as the storm's wind field expands and the convection is displaced more on the north side of the center. By 72h, the storm will be moving away from the coast, accelerating toward the northeast, and transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Atlantic/2019/01Q/Archive/20

Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 20

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

12:00 PM AST Thu Mar 28 2019

Despite the late night heroics from Iba to resurge back to a tropical storm, there is scarcely any organized convection to speak of this morning. The low-level vortex which once fueled the rare South Atlantic tropical cyclone is now a rather elongated swirl of stratocumulus and cumulus cloud lines, and not particularly organized. Describing the system as a tropical cyclone at this point requires some creative license, but scatterometer data depicted at least tenative cyclonic organization. Dvorak satellite estimates are probably not very effective at this point given the structure and its embedding within a complicating windfield. The system has clearly weakened and currently looks nothing like an organized tropical cyclone, but despite the abject organization SSM/I surface wind data valid 8z suggests keeping the system at tropical storm intensity with winds of 35 kt.

Iba is not an organized system, and without much convection dissipation seems likely as it is stretched out in a developing baroclinic cyclone in an area of increased dry air and wind shear. Despite dissipation being depicted within 24 hours... this forecast could still be quite generous.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 29/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2018/03L/Archive/5

Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Chris continues to become better organized this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows that while some dislocation of the low- and mid-level circulations exist, the overall cloud pattern has become substantially better organized over the past 12 hours, with hints of a mid-level eye developing. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm found peak flight-level winds of 50kt, which would support an initial intensity of 40kt; there was a peak believable SFMR value of 48kt, which would support an initial intensity of 50kt. Therefore, I have taken the middle of the two for a starting strength of 45kt.

There has been little change to the track forecast. Chris is located within a region of collapsed steering currents, with a developing ridge over the Northeast United States and an upper-level low to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. Little motion is expected for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a broader trough digging south from Canada should erode the aforementioned ridge and act to provide an outlet to the northeast for Chris. Models are in generally good agreement for this evolution. A northeast trajectory in the medium range should send Chris, as a post-tropical cyclone by this point, toward Newfoundland, where adverse conditions are possible.

The environment is currently marginally favorable, with a nearby front imparting moderate wind shear on Chris. However, this front is expected to dissipate tomorrow and give way to expansive anticyclonic flow aloft. Ocean temperatures are very warm, and this warm water extends down with depth as is characteristic of the Gulf Stream. Continental dry air will lurk nearby, but in the absence of strong upper-level winds, any intrusions should be temporary. The SHIPS and LGEM continue to indicate a Category 2 and Category 1 hurricane, respectively. However, global models, particularly the ECMWF, are more bullish and suggest the potential for a major hurricane. Given the environment and its current state of organization, the intensity forecast has been raised. Weakening is expected after 72 hours as Chris moves over frigid waters and interacts with the upper-level trough.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 09/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 09/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 10/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 10/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 11/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 12/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 13/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/06L/Archive/5

The depression has changed little in organization this afternoon, with deep convection that is actually fairly organized displaced well south of the low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates remain T2.0/30kt from SAB and TAFB, and earlier ASCAT data supports winds of that intensity as well. Despite warm ocean temperatures, dry mid-level air and hostile upper-level winds are limiting intensification. The trend has been for wind shear to linger longer than originally anticipated, and so I have elected to reduce the storm's peak intensity prior to extratropical transition in about 72 hours.
TD Six has moved very little this afternoon. Little motion is expected over the next few hours either. By tomorrow, though, an approaching upper-level trough should cause the depression to accelerate northeast toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, narrowly avoiding the Northeast United States.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/6

Jerry continues to get better organized this evening. A very powerful convective burst has persisted over the centre since the last advisory and has begun exhibiting some curve banding features. It is unclear whether the system is fully vertically stacked or not yet, and that will be key as to whether this burst will lead to any strengthening into a hurricane. Dvorak estimates remain unchanged since the last advisory, with SAB/TAFB/ADT all at T3.5/55 kt. Intensity is unchanged at 55 kt for this advisory.
Jerry is in a decent environment for strengthening over the next day. Shear will remain low enough, around 5-10 kt, while SSTs are warming. The atmosphere is not particularly moist though and that could continue to inhibit strengthening if it is unable to persist convection to form a central dense overcast. Most intensity guidance shows continued intensification into a hurricane in the next day with further intensification possible before conditions deteriorate. Conditions will slowly deteriorate in the form of increased shear around hour 36. Intensity guidance suggests this will not induce any weakening. On the other hand, global models do show weakening in this period as a result of dry air entrainment. The specifics of the intensity forecast out to day 4 is hard to predict given the uncertainty regarding Jerry's specific location. A slight deviation in track can lead to very different outcomes. Regardless, by day 5 shear is expected to significantly pick up and result in weakening. The intensity forecast shows quick strengthening into a hurricane, followed by a few days of stagnation, then some weakening at day 5.
Jerry is moving at a steady pace towards the west-northwest and this movement is expected to continue for the next 3 days. Around this time, the storm is expected to begin moving north around the western periphery of a ridge weakened by Humberto. Complications emerge with respect to the track forecast and the intensity forecast. An upper level ridge is expected to strengthen over the Southeastern US around day 3. If the storm is strong enough to feel the upper level flow, this ridge could potentially keep the storm further south and west with a recurve likely later on in the period. It is also too soon to rule out any impacts from Jerry on the Lesser Antilles, though the door for significant impacts is closing.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/1

The area of disturbed weather nearing the southeastern Caribbean Sea has organized overnight. Radar and surface observations indicate that a well-defined, closed circulation has developed. This center is positioned on the southeast side of a sheared mass of deep convection, with interesting gravity wave-like features embedded within. Surface observations also indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Karen.
Karen is moving northwest and should continue that trajectory for another 12 hours. Beyond that time, the cyclone should curve northward toward a weakness in mid-level ridging. By days 4 and 5, an impressive and broad area of high pressure should expand across the western Atlantic. Models are in increasingly good agreement this will result in Karen turning toward the west.
Strong vertical wind shear is currently hampering Karen and will continue to do so for the next 48 hours or so. As the cyclone exits the Caribbean into the southwestern Atlantic, it should become co-located with anticyclonic flow aloft. Given warm ocean temperatures and adequate mid-level moisture, Karen should begin a steady intensifying trend.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/18

The run of intensification Dorian was on throughout the day yesterday seems to have stalled for the moment. Over the past several hours, the dry slot evident on TJUA radar reflectivity has made its way and become entrained in the inner core of Dorian. An eyewall replacement cycle may be initiating as the dry air has begun to sequester the eyewall from the main rainband. The last aircraft reconnaissance pass indicated at 0450z that the hurricane was still producing surface winds near 75 kt, so the initial intensity has been held the same. The pressure has been raised to fall more in line with the recon data.
Wind shear has been increasing which has allowed the current dry air intrusion into the hurricane's core as a result of its passage by Puerto Rico, which will halt intensification for the time being. However, late today into tomorrow shear should return to a lower strength and the environment around Dorian should become moister, which means after the current dry air intrusion, conditions are very favorable for intensification. Beyond day 2, Dorian will have a favorable upper level environment with plenty of outflow channels, warm sea surface temperatures near 29C, and mid-level relative humidity near 60% and climbing. This should allow the system to reach major hurricane strength and a category 4 system is still expected at landfall in Florida. The usual caveats apply, with major hurricanes often experience small unpredictable fluctuations in intensity.
Dorian is almost moving north-northwest this morning. A general northwest motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours before the mid-level ridge builds west over the southeastern United States. This will turn Dorian until it is tracking just north of west on day 3. Right about 96h, Dorian will make landfall on the coast near eastern central Florida. The storm's forward motion is also expected to slow throughout the forecast period, especially near the end as the mid-level ridge recedes out eastward once again as a shortwave trough erodes it, passing from the US Midwest into the US Northeast. The storm will then weaken as it moves over land.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/25

Gabrielle has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone just a little earlier than forecast. The system's mid-level eye disintegrated shortly after the previous advisory, which makes sense given the overall decrease in convective temperatures and organization since that time. A 23z ASCAT pass showed a frontal boundary extending all the way into the circulation, meaning Gabrielle no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Maximum sustained winds remain around 45kt according to that same pass, which may be suggestive Gabrielle was a little stronger this afternoon. The cyclone is moving northeast and should continue moving in that direction until dissipation in about 72 hours.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/35

Dorian continues to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle this morning, with radar out of Miami indicating that the inner eyewall has nearly eroded as a larger reflectivity ring encapsulates the tiny core. This has been accompanied by an expansion in the cloud field of Dorian, and a weakening of the storm's convection. However, even still, Dorian remains an exceptionally well-organized cyclone, and the initial intensity has only been lowered to 140kt accordingly. New reconnaissance aircraft are en route shortly to determine its true strength.
Dorian has become stationary over the northwestern Bahamas, and the question is how much upwelling takes place while the storm remains still. Even a decrease from 30C to 27C should be sufficient to bring Dorian below Category 5 intensity, especially coupled with the ongoing internal core changes. Otherwise, wind shear should remain light for another 60 hours or so, maintaining a powerful hurricane near the Southeast United States coastline. Increased weakening is expected on days 3 through 5 as the system interacts with land, entrains dry air, and is finally affected by an increase in upper-level winds. The updated forecast is generally similar to the previous one.
Dorian is stationary, but a gradual curve toward the north should ensue over the coming days as an upper-level trough erodes high pressure off the Southeast United States. One trend we have been monitoring over the past 12 hours is higher 500mb heights across the Southeast United States compared to model forecasts. This indicates that the ridge over the Atlantic is stronger than modeled. As a result, there has been a general trend, albeit by a matter of miles, toward the west in the short term. While Dorian's eye is still expected to remain offshore the coastline of Florida, there is a distinct possibility that a landfall does occur at some point. This westward shift is also affecting the track downwind, with the HWRF and HMON models now sending Dorian into South Carolina. The GFS is not quite that far west, but it does skirt Dorian across the coastline of that state and the Cape Fear region of North Carolina. The bottom line is that a direct strike from Dorian continues to look likely among one, if not multiple, Southeast states.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/47

Dorian is sending mixed signals in terms of its strength this morning. Reconnaissance planes investigating the hurricane are finding lower winds than last night, with peak flight-level winds of 95kt supporting an initial intensity around 85kt. On the other hand, the cloud pattern of the hurricane is quickly becoming better organized again after convection weakened earlier. Given these competing trends, I have elected to only lower the initial intensity to 95kt. Another reconnaissance plane will be in Dorian soon to assess its strength.
Wind shear is taking longer to increase than originally anticipated, as the hurricane's cloud pattern remains symmetric and intense. In addition, ocean temperatures remain more than adequate. Thus, the limiting factor in the short term for Dorian will be continental dry air entrainment. Only slow weakening is expected as Dorian affects the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina. Extratropical transition should occur about 3 days from now.
Dorian turned toward the north-northeast this morning as an upper-level trough erodes high pressure off the Southeast United States. This motion is generally expected to continue for the next 5 days, bringing the hurricane across the eastern coastline of North Carolina tonight, and then into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland about 60 to 72 hours from now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/6

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Chantal's convection has expanded since the last advisory. Aside from that development, the depression remains much the same, with convection displaced east of a well-defined low-level circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates remain at T2.0/30kt from both SAB and TAFB at 06z. Therefore, the intensity of Chantal is held at 30 kt.
Chantal continues to experience strong 20 kt westerly shear, but this is expected to decrease over the coming days, reaching a minumum around 30h, before increasing once again. Sea surface temperatures will remain a near constant 26C, with mid-level relative humidity values in the 30s. Despite the relaxing of wind shear on day 2, the low mid-level humidity is expected to prevent Chantal from gaining any advantage from these conditions. Model guidance is in good agreement that the depression will slowly weaken, becoming post-tropical by day 3 and opening up into a trough shortly thereafter.
Chantal is moving quickly toward the east-southeast along the northeastern periphery of a mid-level ridge in the central Atlantic. This motion is expected to become more southeasterly tomorrow, with motion subsequently slowing as the increasing influence of a trough pulls the storm back north around 72h, returning the storm to the mid-latitude westerlies where it is expected to dissipate.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/10

Jerry has unraveled overnight. Satellite animations show that the cloud pattern has become very disorganized, and in fact, the low-level circulation was partially exposed for a time. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Jerry found maximum flight-level winds of 72kt and peak surface winds of 65kt. Both of these values support an initial strength of 65kt, indicating that the cyclone has weakened today as quickly as it intensified yesterday.
The influence of strong wind shear and abundant dry air has had the expected impact on Jerry, and further weakening is likely over the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, as the cyclone curves northward, it should encounter a more favorable environment for intensification. Shear forecasts on days 4 and 5 are subject to large swings, and model forecast intensities vary significantly right now. Therefore, the updated intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, above guidance like the GFS but below guidance such as the ECMWF.
Jerry is moving off toward the west-northwest. This trajectory should continue for the next 24 hours before a gradual curve to the north and north-northeast ensues. This curve is the result of Jerry reaching the western edge of mid-level ridging while also interacting with an upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. The cyclone poses a threat to Bermuda and should reach the island between 4 and 5 days from now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH