2023 Power Rankings-Week 1

## Introduction

On Wednesday, August 30th, 2023, I drove up a hill with Papa on the way to our war room with a cheese pizza and a whole bunch of anxiety. Ahead of us, we saw a deer grazing on the side of the driveway. As we got closer, we saw that this deer had three legs. "She's a survivor," Papa told me.

What did it mean? An hour away from the 2023 draft, and this doe appears. A doe that has been through the shit and come out scathed but not destroyed. In some ways, her injury had made her stronger, smarter, more instinctive.

I think back to all the injuries we suffer as fantasy owners. The crushing Monday night losses. The blowout defeats when you really think you had a chance. The hope of a late-round pick who turns out to be s turd, or a first round pick who doesn't even take the field week one. We all carry the scars of the past with us with each new season. But like the sacred three-legged deer, we endure. We continue to fight.

What does the sacred three-legged deer tell us about 2023? Does it mean we will have a team win their third championship (Paddock 9/momma)? Does it mean that a team with three championship losses will finally win it all (Pain Train)? Or that a team with three Glory Bowl appearances will take the trophy (Duck Punchers)? Does it mean that a team with a key player missing time for a leg injury will ultimately triumph (RIPDab)? That a mother's struggle for survival is the most powerful force in the fantasy universe (Sweet Dee)? That a team who missed three of the first four seasons of LOC will find its way back to the mountain top (Stupid Idiots)? Or does it mean that the two managers who actually saw the deer have been blessed with its mystical powers (Papa's Posse/Mattness)? There is only one thing we know for certain...it isn't saying shit about The Shotti Bunch.

## Opening Day Standings (Minimum Two Games)

Updated 9/20/22

In week one we have several win streaks facing off. Shotti and Pain Train, both coming off week one wins in 2022 and both with seven total wins in week one. Shotti has the slight edge as he didn't play in 2011, but his team is projected to go down to a Kelce-less Pain Train.

Elsewhere, Mattness (the second-winningest week one team, but coming off a loss) faces off against momma (a historically terrible week one team but coming off a win). It is a fitting way to open the 2023 season as this rivalry continues to heat up with each head-to-head.

RIPDab and Sweet Dee start the year in a marital bout. Trends indicate that this is Sweet Dee's to lose. She is one of the best September teams in the league, but she has already taken a huge hit with the performance of Cadaverous Toney.

Not to be outdone, Duck Punchers comes into 2023 as the best week one team in LOC history. They face off against the worst in Stupid Idiots, who has just one win in their franchise history. It's an interesting dynamic considering that over the last few years it has been The Stupid Idiots with more postseason success.

Finally, something has to give in Papa vs. Paddock. Both teams are on three-year week one losing streaks. One of them will tie the record for the longest streak of opening day losses (4), while the other will notch that precious first victory.

## Week One Power Rankings

To open the power rankings, here is each team along with one aspect of their season that they already need to be worried about.

### 1. ma ma momma said

* Draft Day Projection: 12-2

The defending champion came out of the draft with the best Yahoo projection in the league and there is no reason (just yet) to doubt that they are capable of a repeat performance. HOWEVAH, their opening night antics were not without reproach. Running back seems to be a huge question mark. Can first rounder Henry, at age 29 and 1877 touches deep, stay healthy all season? And as you go down the depth chart, is there any back on the roster that inspires much confidence? James "John" Connor, Antonio Gibson, Mattison, McKinnon. Backups, or former backups thrust into starting roles, and some slightly older guys in back offenses.

### 2. The Multiverse of Mattness

* Draft Day Projections: 11-3

Skyy Bore has already put this roster down for a nap with an opening night snoozer that has Commish second-guessing every decision up and down the roster. That said, this appears to be the strongest receiving group in the LOC with a fine pair of keepers to go with Deebo and a projected stud in Darren Waller. An early area of concern appears to be defense, with a week one streamer already plugged in.

### 3. RIPDab

* Draft Day Projection: 6-8

Yahoo has already adjusted RIPDab's projection from 6-8 to 9-5. I'm also sort of high on Dab, IF they can mentally recover from the injury to Cooper Kupp. Losing your first round pick immediately after drafting him isn't the greatest feeling, but this was otherwise a pretty solid draft. Gibbs looks great, despite some pass pro issues that kept him sidelined in favor of Monty for much of the opening game. And Dab has a bench of young studs who are worth flyers and could pop off, creating some much-needed upside to start the year.

### 4. Duck Punchers

* Draft Day Projection: 10-4

You know how directors all have their own style? You always know when you are watching a Tarantino or a Wes Anderson. That's how I feel about Duck Punchers. If you showed me this roster, I would know it was a Zach team. And that's not a bad thing! Duck has had wild regular season success over the year, becoming the first and only team to break 100 wins in 2022. It's especially comforting that Duck passed up on keeping CeeDee, only to grab him in the opening round anyway. While you can't play scared, there is a definite concern with whether Lamar can stay healthy for a full season. If he does, we could be looking at 40-50 points per game out of the QB spot. But if he gets hurt its a big blow to their Glory Bowl chances.

### 5. Pain Train

* Draft Day Projection: 8-6

Pain Train already had a difficult decision to make on Thursday. Kickoff was 330am his time as he is honeymooning in Greece, and he had to decide whether to leave Kelce in his lineup or not before falling asleep. He chose wisely and it could translate to a huge opening week victory of Shotti. Pain Train is one of very few teams who is deep at runningback, and a return to form for Javonte could prove to be massive value as the season progesses. But the Kelce injury cannot be overlooked. He is a freak of nature but he is 34.

### 6. Paddock 9

* Draft Day Projection: 3-11

Paddock will definitely out-perform this projection. I'm not even worried about that. He can make something out of nothing. For example, he is making Deon Jackson something out of nothing because there is no other healthy RB on the Colts. Paddock is scrappy. He'll find a way. But it is concerning that he does not roster a top-20 RB and, as always, his trading of picks cost him some tier 3 talent on draft night. Paddock has TE and QB locked down, though he lacks any depth at those positions.

### 7. The Stupid Idiots

* Draft Day Projection: 6-8

Idiots was going to be ranked lower until TNF, when it became obvious that he hit on a star in Sam LaPorta. To have an immediate impact as a rookie TE tells you a lot about a player's potential, and this guy could be a bonafide league winner at the position if he keeps this up. Elsewhere, Idiots has a very strong WR corp in higgins, Wilson, London, and Diontae on the fucking bench. Barkely and Chubb headline a RB group that includes James Cook in the flex and some wait-and-see Chicago boys on the bench (Roschon and Khalil). Similar to Duck, we have to question the health of the QB. It's silly, because Jackson and Tua are both studs. But history has shown us that they cannot stay on the field. Lucky for Idiots, they have Anthony Richardson in waiting.

### 8. Sweet Dee

* Draft Day Projection: 5-9

Burrow for not-so-Sure-Oh to start 2023 because of his ankle injury, which could limit mobility early on. And the Toney performance was really tough to watch, setting Dee back early in her opening round fight vs. Nate. Plus now she loses Mark MANdrews for Sunday, though Njoku is a very worthy backup and it opens a slot for Dalvin Cook (the reported starter for week one due to Breece's injury). It's really not all bad, but it's just some bad.

### 9. Papa's Posse

* Draft Day Projection: 2-12

I actually thought Papa had a good draft, which goes to show that the competition this season is pretty strong. Sure, he couldn't help himself in taking Adam Thielen, but that wasn't a bad pick! Darnell Mooney? Maybe a bad pick. Christian Watson is a major concern. He was an early pick and hamstring injuries are a pain in the ass (no pun intended). There also isn't much depth on the bench because Papa currently holds two defenses, though that may change after week one since NE isn't facing Philly every week.

### 10. The Shotti Bunch

* Draft Day Projection: 7-7

For the second season in a row, Shotti starts the year projected 10th in the power rankings. In 2022, Yahoo projected them to finish 3-11. They finished 7-7 but lost both consolation games. This year, though projected 7-7, I am worried about their prospects of Glory Bowl win #5. While they got mega value out of Calvin Ridley in the 16th and took the most explosive receiver in the opening round with Hill, there are questionable players at all positions. The football world is high on Justin Fields, but still low on Chicago, and I'm not convinced on his value just yet. Breece Hall is being eased back into action, potentially making him a key component for a playoff push. And the bench/flex spots are suspect. Juju and his exploding knee, Jameson and his suspension, Kamara and his suspension, Zeke and his age, Hopkins and his new team. It's a lot of "what if" and if he can't win early he might be playing catch up late.

## Never Tell Me the Odds!

Yahoo projections are a joke, right? They see your draft and they tell you the future. But teams change. Injuries. Trades. Add/drops. Start/sits. Projections are not reality. But how often has Yahoo's Draft Day Projections been...close? For example, let's just pick a random number: five. Five is a good cut off. Five wins and you're headed to the loser's bracket. How many times did Yahoo project a team to go 5-8 or WORSE? Of those teams, how many defied the odds and made the playoffs? I'm glad you asked.

## Single Season Win/Loss Records

In total, there have been 122 full seasons in the LoC. In 2011, 12 teams played 13 regular season games. Since then, there have been seven more full 13-game seasons played with ten teams in each.

Updated through 2022 season

Mattness logged one of the worst regular seasons in LOC history last season, becoming just the fifth team with 11 losses.

## All-Time Regular Season Win/Loss Records

Below are the all-time regular season records for every franchise in the history of the league, including defunct teams. Records are updated through the 2022 season. There have been 158 regular season weeks since the league's inception in 2011.

It would take quite a run from Pain Train to get to 100 wins in 2023, which means that somehow Duck Punchers will remain the only team with over 100 regular season wins until at least September of 2024, and nobody will be able to catch his win total until late in the 2024 season at the earliest.

## Matchup of the Week

### Multiverse of Mattness vs. Ma ma momma said

These teams are 10-10 lifetime against each other and momma is coming off her first season-sweep of Mattness since 2015. Mattness has not broken 180 points against momma since December 2021, while Momma has broken 190 in each of her last six games in this matchup. Momma begins the defense of her crown against a team that questioned her draft strategy and who desperately wants an early win to shake off the stink of that 3-11 record from a year ago.

Updated through 1/1/23

## Conclusion

Somewhere out there right now, a sacred three-legged deer walks through the woods, protecting her fawn. She is maimed, but not broken. Such is the way of nature and fantasy football, that when we face adversity we must choose to rise up or fall. What will your story be in 2023? Are you the deer who perseveres, or the predator who fails to capture its prize?