Shot in the Dark

The **Shot in the Dark** is a mechanic used in *Survivor Winter Park*, introduced in *Island of Desolation*. The mechanic gives players a 1 in 6 chance to be safe in exchange for their vote in Tribal Council.

## Overview

At the start of the game, each player is given a six-sided die. If a player feels unsafe at any Tribal Council, they may choose to roll their die in exchange for their vote at Tribal Council until the final five players remain.

Unlike the television show, the Shot in the Dark is rolled at Tribal Council as a physical die, rather than the exchange of the die for a scroll, allowing every player to potentially be immune if they all roll their Shot in the Dark, as unlikely as the odds would be for such a case to happen. After not voting at the voting booth, the player will publicly announce that they played their Shot in the Dark, selecting a number (or numbers, depending on what their odds are) while turning away from the main table at Tribal Council. The host (in both season it was a mainline twist, Thorin Groth) will then roll the die when commanded by the roller, with all the players turned away. If the die landed on the called number, any votes cast against that player would now be voided in a similar fashion to an idol. Otherwise, the die is removed from the game.

The Shot in the Dark was implemented in both seasons as a way to keep the bigger target returning players around for a little longer, allowing them a possible way to avoid an early elimination despite the low odds of it working.

## Strategy

The Shot in the Dark is meant to be a "Hail Mary" maneuver, in the case that a player is almost certainly doomed for elimination. If a player has nothing left to do and their vote essentially becomes useless, having the Shot in the Dark allows them to bolster their chances ever so slightly, forcing the majority to account for such a play.

When working around the Shot in the Dark, players are forced to keep their plans more secretive than usual in order to prevent the possibility of the Shot dismantling a majority decision. Thus, larger alliances are less likely to exist, due to the potential for splitting votes being increased as the rounds continue.

## Twist History

The Shot in the Dark was first introduced in *Island of Desolation*, allowing any of the all-star players a chance to save themselves at any Tribal Council. Marina Rentz would use hers at the very first Tribal Council of the season, illustrating the difficult of beating the odds by failing to call the right number, leading to her elimination of that round.

Daniel Jaffe would use his Shot in Round 6, the first Tribal Council of the tribe swap, despite not being in trouble. The shot would prove unsuccessful but he would remain in the game, with Clarisa Groff being eliminated instead.

For returning through the Island of Desolation, Rylee Perrault's shot was upgraded with 1-in-2 odds on her side. She would immediately become the nearly unanimous target of the tribe at the first vote of the merge, being clued in to use her shot at that round. For the first time in *Survivor Winter Park* history, the shot would succeed, negating nine votes against Rylee and forcing a 1-1 tie (and subsequent scramble that would change the rest of the game) between Blake Cox and Justin DeLoach.

Similarly to Rylee, Hannah Arnold's shot would also be upgraded to a 1-in-2 chance for returning to the game. This would incentivize her to use it during the Split Tribal Council twist of Round 12 when she was the unanimous target. Unlike Rylee, however, it would prove unsuccessful and she would go on to be eliminated at that vote.

At the Final 5, both Owen Rimes and Samuel Bernbaum were faced with the difficult decision to eliminate long-term ally Zachary Asarnow, knowing they couldn't beat him in the end. However, they didn't want to write his name down, with Sam opting to use his shot in the hopes of being able to save Owen with his idol. His shot would go off but only negate Owen's own vote, with Zachary being eliminated.

The Shot in the Dark returned as a season-long advantage once again in *Clash of the Champions*, with the last point of usage being the Final 6 and the introduction of passing the Shot in the Dark off to players after elimination. Finding himself at the bottom of the tribe, Owen Rimes would be clued in by Charlie Hoeckendorf to use his shot. However, Madison Visconti would recognize herself as the secondary target, and being unsure of how many votes were going her way, she also decided to use her shot. Miraculously, both shots would land in a 1-in-36 chance. In order to potentially bait out his shot in the next round, Cole Groth had told Delaney Gardner to throw a single vote onto George Stedronsky, which would end up being the only vote left eligible after every other negation, resulting in his shocking elimination. This would end the twist of passing the Shot in the Dark off to other players.

Backed into a corner but charged with a 1-in-2 chance, Zachary Asarnow would use his shot during Round 5, with luck failing to be on side and resulting in his elimination.

With a 1-in-3 chance, Blake Cox would see himself at the bottom with Charlie Hoeckendorf and wanted to lean on the sides of the odds for guaranteed safety, knowing he was one of the biggest targets of the season. The shot would not work, and throwing his vote away would result in a tie vote between both himself and Charlie, with Delaney Gardner deciding to flip her vote onto Charlie to keep around Blake for longer, resulting in his blindside elimination.

After the chaos of the Final 7 round, Cole Groth would go on to win immunity, immediately giving it up to Jordan Rotz to test his ability to stay in the game. Cole, wanting to shake the game up instead of floating by with an immunity win, would decide to use his shot for the Final 6 round. This shot would be successful but would not negate the majority of the votes, as Delaney Gardner would be blindsided instead.

The Shot in the Dark returned in an upgrade 1-in-2 form for two different Timeline Twister cards. Cecelia Gutman found the card for *Clash of the Champions* prompting her to look in Cole's shirt pocket, finding the die when she had previously lost her closest ally Kristen Paul and was up against the wall. The Shot would prove successful but would result in the elimination of her only other ally, Diego Lindauer.

Pedro Kawamura would find be given the *Island of Desolation* card from William Turner, being told to use it in Round 15 from allies Griffin Hallemeier and Meaghan Schlossmacher. Once again, the odds would be in Pedro's favor but would result in the elimination of his girlfriend, Ryan Hagerty.

## Trivia

* Rylee Perrault is the first player to play a successful Shot in the Dark and the first player to negate the majority of the votes with it.
	+ Samuel Bernbaum is the first player to play a successful Shot in the Dark without increased odds and the first player to not negate the majority of the votes with it.
* Rylee holds the record for most votes negated with a usage of the Shot in the Dark, with 9.
* Zachary Asarnow is the only player to be eliminated in multiple rounds involving the Shot in the Dark.
* Every successful usage of the Shot in the Dark has negated at least one vote.
* Every player who used the Shot in the Dark has received votes at that Tribal Council.