Episode 1199: Two for Ohtani

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Shohei Ohtani’s hot hitting start, revisit the subject of Joey Gallo bunting against the four-man outfield, and critique a retracted Trevor Rosenthal report, then answer listener emails about Bondsian starts to seasons, Tommy Pham’s prophfanity, how data-driven players may impact projections, Seth Lugo’s breakout potential, short-term tanking vs. long-term tanking, new counting-stat thresholds, a version of Giancarlo Stanton who always swings for the fences, a harebrained scheme attempt to break the career hits record, a Mike Trout pitching hypothetical, a Triple-A/MLB role reversal, a star player out for vengeance, and more, plus a Stat Blast about the balls hit hardest by pitchers.*

## Topics

* How long can someone stay above .1422 OPS.
* Tommy Pham’s bad words, and anger towards the Cardinals.
* Will projections become less important as they become more popular
* What should the new counting stat benchmarks be?
* Pitcher Mike Trout
* Defining tanking and when it becomes unacceptable.
* Assuming all minor leaguers get great at one time, when would there be no current MLB players are left.
* Seth Lugo’s crazy spring stats and curveball.
* What if Giancarlo Stanton was told only to try and hit home runs, how many would he get?
* What if a player did everything he could to play against 1 team as possible?
* How much baseball experience would one need to play as long as possible to break Pete Rose’s hit record?

## Banter

* This was recorded before Shohei Ohtani had his 2nd straight game with multiple hits and a home run.
* The guys talk about Shohei Ohtani’s big game.
* Joey Gallo doesn't bunt follow up.
* Bob Nightengale tweeted that Trevor Rosenthal was to join Marlins, then retracted it.

## Email Questions

* Sean: One of the things I’m tracking this year is how long it takes for the last batter to drop below Barry Bonds’ 2004 full season OPS of 1.422. Right now, after just under a week of baseball, there are 9 hitters who are above that mark. How long to you predict someone to stay above that mark? Do you think that someone manages to make it to May? Also, just as an aside, peak Barry Bonds was completely and totally unbelievable.
* Kyle(Patreon): In reading Tommy Phams comments today to STL beat writer Rick Hummel about the SI article, it raised a question in my mind that I thought perhaps Ben, a former editor, could answer. Pham complained to Hummel that there were so many cuss words in the piece (which there certainly are). My question is “is that normal to have word usage like that? And if so, is it unusual to NOT edit them out?” I just imagine many athletes speak with a loose tongue, and then those types of things don’t make it past the editor. Is that the case, or am I wrong? If that is the case, why might an editor decide to leave those words in the piece? I don’t mind them being in the piece, but it certainly makes you think differently about him. Now, obviously, he said those words, so he has to be accountable. My interest was piqued when he seemed surprised to see them used in the piece. I’m mainly curious about the writer/editor side of this question, and how the decision making process unfolds when making decisions on the questions I’ve asked.
* Taylor: There seems to be a lot of discussion lately (including on your podcast) about players making data driven/influenced changes to swing planes, buying into launch angle, designing pitches, etc. and teams potentially using these approaches to change players under contract in lieu of signing free agents who have made these adjustments. With these changes not really being considered heavily in projections could we be entering a period where our projection systems are going to be as inaccurate as they've ever been in the fangraphs era? Or, is it not going to matter that much because making these changes are a) difficult and b) elicit responses from pitchers and possibly managers in terms of strategy? I guess there's also some possibility that these adjustments begin to spread across the league will they become more like the "best shape of his life" type thing (or perhaps not as these changes have a more direct impact on performance?)? What are your thoughts on this? Will Statcast or other current/future data be able to help us either incorporate these changes into projections or at least identify players for whom there will likely be a systematic deviation from projections?

* George: What should the new counting stats thresholds be? With new playing times (more relievers, more off days, etc) is 3000 hits really still an attainable bench mark? What should we consider equally as impressive now? Is 260 ks the new 300ks? Is 20 wins is the new 25 wins? Will 3000 career Ks ever be reached? How should we change our perception of milestones for modern day standards?
* Nick: If Mike Trout insisted on pitching 1 inning every year, how would that affect his market value? How many innings would he have to insist on throwing before teams would actively not want him on their team? Assume that if a team doesn't let him throw the desired number of innings, he would refuse to play until traded or released.
* Cory: Ben's "hope and faith" article got me thinking. It seems like most of the conversation about tanking/rebuilding and whether it's bad for the game has to do with how many teams are competitive at a given time, but I wonder if that's really the most important question. Maybe it matters which methods a team uses to be strategically bad. For example, I agree with you two that there's nothing wrong with a front office prioritizing the future by doing things like trading veteran players or avoiding marginal upgrades on the free agent market. And it's probably even okay for the field staff to think the same way, like by managing young pitchers' innings, or suggesting swing changes that might pay off later but take a player out of their element in the short term. But surely some ways of strategically losing would really be bad for the game, even if they help a team in the long term: pitchers throwing at half effort to preserve their arms, managers benching their best players to get better draft picks, or hitters using at bats to practice their bunting in hopes of being less vulnerable to the shift in future seasons. What do you think distinguishes acceptable and unacceptable ways of prioritizing the future? I used to think it was that, in the good cases, the players were at least trying to win even if the front office was not. But in the case where a manager benches a star player, that seems like it'd be bad for the game even if the replacement player tries their hardest. Any better ideas?

* Adam (Patreon): The Baseball Gods are fickle, and have decided to endow the world's minor league ballplayers with superior skill. Overnight, minor league players' skill levels are elevated beyond those of major leaguers -- all AAA players are better than all MLB players, and Mike Trout couldn't crack the roster of the Salt Lake Bees. However, all AAA players got better in unison, so their statistics won't change as long as the makeup of the minor/major leagues remains the same -- they would have to be called up in order to show off their new superiority. How long until no current major leaguers are in the majors, assuming none of them deserve to be there on talent? (Assume there are enough super-talented AAers that MLers aren't even needed for injury depth).
* Mike: This may be more of an article idea than a question for the podcast (here's looking at you Jeff...), but what do you make of Seth Lugo's spring stats? 17/3 K to BB ratio in 15.2 IPs. That's a dumb and small sample size, yes. However, pair this with the fact that we know that Seth Lugo throws the spinniest curve ball \*of all time\* and do we start to think, hmmm, breakout? I know it's the Mets but maybe someone said, hey Seth Lugo, have you ever heard of this guy Rich Hill (etc. etc.)?

* Andrew (Patreon): Let's say Giancarlo Stanton was under explicit instructions to try and hit a home run, and only a home run, every time he came up. How many would he hit, assuming a healthy full season?
* Michael: Inspired by an episode of Breaking Madden I had a thought - what would happen if a players only focus was to beat another team. Lets say Ronald Acuna gets so angry at the Braves for service time manipulation that when he becomes a free agent he does everything possible to play against the Braves as much as possible? Play for an NL East team? Too easy and not enough vengeance. Sign for the first team the Braves are scheduled to play and in the contract require a trade to the next team to play the Braves after the series? Ronald Acuna is so good at this point (2000 OPS+) that teams are happy just to have him for 6-20 games a year when playing the Braves. Getting through waivers in August - no team will claim him because they don't want to anger him. September trades - Ronald doesn't care about the postseason because the Braves aren't making it with him playing then 162 times a year. My non-hypothetical questions: · How much could a player benefit by just playing the same opponents every time? · How bad could one team be if the best ever player in baseball (in this scenario) was solely focused on beating them for 15 years?

* Ethan: Let's say that an eccentric billionaire owner has decided that Pete Rose holding the all time hits record is a disgrace and has decided to do something about it. His plan is an unusual one: he has decided to pluck a random twenty year old off the street with no baseball experience and sign him to his team. He will hit him first in the lineup every day until either the hits record is broken or this player dies of old age. The terms of the contract are (somehow) such that the player is not allowed to retire until the hits record is broken and the owner has left it in his will that this situation must continue after his own death. Do you think it is possible that this player could break the record before they suffered some catastrophic injury at age 60 that prevented them from even swinging a bat? How could you help this player out? If it's not possible for a random twenty year old, how much baseball experience would be necessary for this player to have before it was feasible?

## Stat Blast

* Is it fair to compare Shohei Ohtani at the plate to other pitchers?
* Top 15 hardest hit balls by pitchers.
* Shohei Ohtani hit a 112.8 MPH single, its the highest in the history of reading exit velo.

## Notes

* “Ohtani has a great smile, its really infectious” - Ben
* 43.2% of 1 bunt attempt guys get the ball down fair, and when people bunt vs shift 58% of the time they reach base.
* Jeff wants to see Joey Gallo bunt every time he comes up.
* Albert Pujols has gone longest with a .1422 OPS since Barry Bonds set the record.
* Ben says you have to print the words that the players say in an interview.
* People complained about the language in “The Only Rule Is It Has To Work”.
* Tommy Pham liked a tweet last year saying that Mat Albers was a bad outfielder.
* Jeff doesn't think projections have gotten better or worse over time.
* Ben went back and noticed this was lowest year to year change of wRC+ in consecutive years since 1961.
* Ben hopes we are in a post milestone era.
* Albert Pujols has a higher launch angle this year.
* Albert Pujols is about 25 hits away from 3,000.
* Jeff and Ben think Mike Trout’s value would be reduced if he pitches above 25 innings.
* The Mets have told Seth Lugo to throw his curveballs more.
* Jeff thinks Giancarlo Stanton would hit 80 home runs and walk much less.

* Jeff thinks it is highly improbable that Pete Rose’s record will ever be broken.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1199: Two for Ohtani
* Bunt, Joey, Bunt! by Russell Carleton