Things are getting worse

Lots of people think that world poverty is increasing, the poor get poorer, world hunger is expanding, food production is stagnating, and future prospects are even worse. All figures tell otherwise. Exactly the opposite, in fact,

For recent periods (1960-2012, or 1980-2012 or 1990-2012, etc.) all the following are true according to existing data: Malnutrition prevalence is decreasing (WHO), child mortality rates are decreasing (UNICEF), per capita food production and per capita food consumption are both increasing (FAO), quality of average diet is improving (FAO), rate of undernourishment is decreasing (FAO), farm land productivity is increasing (FAO), prevalence of poverty is decreasing by any measure (World Bank, UNDP/Human Dev Index, and many academic studies). Asia is progressing fastest, followed by Latin America, and even Africa is also progressing fast since 1990-2000 (unlike precedent periods). Much yet to be achieved, of course, but the world is going forwards, not backwards. And projections for the future (e.g. FAO for 2050) envisage further improvement, even after accounting for climate change and other factors.

The belief that a society or institution is tending towards decline is called declinism. Particularly, it is the predisposition, possibly due to cognitive bias, such as rosy retrospection, to view the past more favourably and future negatively.

The theory of declinism had been noted in the United Kingdom. In a 2015 survey, 70% of Britons surveyed agreed with the statement that "things are worse than they used to be," even though at the time Britons were in fact "richer, healthier and longer-living than ever before". However, it was also noted in the survey that many of the things that older people mourned from their youths were no longer existent in modern society.

Declinism has been described as "a trick of the mind" and as "an emotional strategy, something comforting to snuggle up to when the present day seems intolerably bleak."

One factor in declinism is the so-called "reminiscence bump," meaning that older people tend "to best remember events that happened to them at around the ages of 10-30." As one source puts it, "[t]he vibrancy of youth, and the thrill of experiencing things for the first time, creates a 'memory bump' compared with which later life does seem a bit drab." Gopnick suggests that "the idea of our decline is emotionally magnetic, because life is a long slide down, and the plateau just passed is easier to love than the one coming up." Citing the widespread love of "old songs," he writes: "The long look back is part of the long ride home. We all believe in yesterday."

Another factor is the so-called positivity effect, meaning that "as people get older, they tend to experience fewer negative emotions, and they're more likely to remember positive things over negative things."

Both of these factors can lead people to experience declinism. But so, contrarily, can the "negativity bias," meaning that "emotionally negative events are likely to have more impact on your thoughts and behaviours than a similar, but positive, event."

## References

1. ↑ The Oxford Dictionary of American Political Slang edited by Grant Barrett, p. 90.
2. ↑ Etchells, Pete (January 16, 2015). "Declinism: is the world actually getting worse?". The Guardian. Retrieved 20 December 2016.
3. ↑ Steven R. Quartz, The State Of The World Isn't Nearly As Bad As You Think, Edge Foundation, Inc., retrieved 2016-02-17
4. ↑ Lewis, Jemima (January 16, 2016). "Why we yearn for the good old days". The Telegraph. Retrieved 20 December 2016.