2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Jarrell)

The **2019 Atlantic hurricane season** was a slightly below-average active Atlantic hurricane season in terms of named storms, producing 11 tropical cyclones, 11 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and ended on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. This year became the latest-starting hurricane season since 2004: no tropical depressions formed until August 13, and the first storm, Ace, was named the following day. Ace also became the first major hurricane of the season on August 17.

Hurricane Glenn was the most intense storm of the season, attaining peak winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) while passing near Bermuda. The costliest and deadliest storm of the season was the late-forming Hurricane Janie. Striking Hispaniola as a minimal hurricane, the storm was forecast to dissipate in the open Atlantic. However, the influence of a deep-layer ridge amid a favorable environment caused the storm to execute a loop and move west, eventually striking North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane, the first since Hurricane Fran in 1996. Two other storms which caused notable effects are Hurricane Fern, which attained Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall as a weakening Category 3 hurricane south of Matamoros, Tampuilas; and Hurricane Daisy, which struck western Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. Collectively, the tropical cyclones of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season caused at least $14.2 billion in damage and 317 deaths.

## **Seasonal forecasts**

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.

### **Pre-season outlooks**

After an extremely active and record-breaking season, the first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season. On December 30, the JMC released its first official forecast of the year, expecting a slightly lower number than that of 2018, with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. The JMC noted the possibility of an El Nino developing, but stated that such conditions had been in the forecasts for the two previous seasons, both of which yielded high amounts of costly storms. On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions. North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes. On May 6, The Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On May 30, TSR released an updated forecast which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.

### **Mid-season outlooks**

On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. On June 11, University of Arizona (UA) predicted above-average activities: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units. On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast. On July 9, CSU released their second mid-season outlook with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast.

## **Seasonal summary**

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, but activity in 2019 began nearly two and a half months later with the formation of Hurricane Ace on August 13, making it the first season since 2009 to not have a named storm before August, as well as the first since 1962 to not see the development of any tropical cyclones before August. It was a below-average season in which 11 tropical depressions formed. All of the depressions attained tropical storm status and seven of these attained hurricane status. In addition, four tropical cyclones eventually attained major hurricane status, which is above the 1981–2010 average of 2.7 per season. The amount of activity was attributed to a La Niña that persisted since the previous year. Two hurricanes and five tropical storms made landfall during the season, causing 317 deaths and $10.1 billion in damage.

## Systems

### **Hurricane Ace**

 Duration
 Intensity

A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 2. Over a week later on August 11, the JMC began to monitor the wave for development when it began to show signs of gradual organization. Over the next two days, the wave's appearance began to improve, and at 7 PM EDT (2300 UTC) on August 13, the first tropical depression of the season formed. Steadily intensification continued, and the depression was named Tropical Storm Ace the following day. Paralleling the coast of the Southeastern United States, Ace continued to strengthen under favorable conditions, eventually peaking as a 120 mph (193 km/h) Category 3 hurricane on August 17, just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Exiting the vicinity of the U.S. eastern coast, Ace began to quickly weaken in a increasingly hostile environment. Ace transitioned to an extratropical cyclone early on August 19.

### **Tropical Storm Brittany**

 Duration
 Intensity

The second tropical depression of the season formed on August 21 in the Gulf of Mexico from a persistent area of convection. Based on reconnaissance data received from an JMC plane investigating the system, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Brittany less than twelve hours later. Brittany gradually weakened while slowly moving inland, weakening into a tropical depression shortly after it made landfall near Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on August 24. At 17:00 UTC on August 26, Brittany weakened into a remnant low over western Georgia.

### **Hurricane Carter**

 Duration
 Intensity

A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa on August 17. The system tracked westward at 17 to 23 mph (27 to 37 km/h) and convection began organizing five days later. On August 23, the wave passed north of the Windward Islands, bringing 5 to 8 inches (130 to 200 mm) on several islands. Although it was a strong tropical wave, the system weakened significantly while tracking steadily northward. However, conditions became favorable for development as it neared Bermuda. It developed into a tropical depression northeast of the Bahamas on August 28. A reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Carter at 1200 UTC that same day.

Soon after becoming a tropical storm, Carter made landfall in Bermuda, though only light damage was reported on the island. The storm quickly strengthened while tracking northeastward and strengthened into a hurricane at 0600 UTC on August 30. By early on August 31, Carter attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 987 mbar (29.2 inHg), and its intensity quickly leveled off as it entered cooler waters. Carter transitioned into an extratropical storm while located south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. On September 1, the extratropical remnants of Carter were absorbed by a frontal low pressure system located in the northern Atlantic Ocean.

### **Hurricane Daisy**

 Duration
 Intensity

An area of disturbed weather developed into Tropical Depression Four at 1400 UTC on September 1 while located about 157 miles (252 km) south of Pensacola, Florida. The depression moved almost due west, and later to the southwest, from a ridge to its north. During this time the system gradually strengthened, and became Tropical Storm Daisy late on September 2. An approaching trough caused Daisy to shift its motion to the northwest, during which time it attained hurricane status. At 1600 UTC on September 5, Daisy attained its peak intensity with sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a minimum pressure in 973 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. It held this strength as it made landfall just east of Sabine Pass, Louisiana less than two hours later. Daisy steadily weakened as it moved inland, falling to tropical storm strength by 0000 UTC on September 6 and later dropped to tropical depression status twelve hours thereafter. The depression degraded to a remnant low near Durant, Oklahoma that afternoon, and the low accelerated northeast before dissipating on September 7 over southwestern Missouri.

### **Tropical Storm Elliot**

 Duration
 Intensity

### **Hurricane Fern**

*Main article: Hurricane Fern (2019)*

 Duration
 Intensity

### **Hurricane Glenn**

 Duration
 Intensity

A well-defined tropical wave exited the western coast of Africa on September 19. The cloud pattern quickly became better-defined, and developed into Tropical Depression Seven on September 21 while located to the southwest of Cape Verde. The depression slowly organized due to moderate wind shear, and by the following day, was named Tropical Storm Glenn as it moved on a steady northwesterly course. Glenn continued to strengthen and was upgraded to a hurricane on September 24. Glenn reached an initial peak intensity of 115 mph (185 km/h) winds before undergoing a eyewall replacement cycle on September 27.

After the cycle was complete, Glenn quickly regained major hurricane status and eventually reached its peak intensity as a strong Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) early on September 29. Following its peak intensity, Glenn began to weaken immediately thereafter, while curving northeastward. The storm moved over decreasing sea surface temperatures and dropped down to Category 1 intensity by October 1, while accelerating to the northeast. The weakening hurricane moved through the Azores the following day, and degraded to a tropical storm after completing its passage through the islands. Late on October 3, Glenn completed its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The extratropical remnants turned to the north-northeast, and later affected the British Isles between October 5 and 6, before dissipating over the North Sea. Minimal impact was reported from Glenn.

### **Hurricane Hope**

 Duration
 Intensity

A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa on September 17. Little development in the system occurred due to an environment of dry air from the presence of the Saharan Air Layer. After tracking west for several days, a passing trough shifted the wave to the northwest. Following a significant increase in convection, it was determined a tropical depression developed at 1900 UTC on September 26, while located 470 miles (756 km) northeast of Antigua. Six hours later, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Hope. Hope further strengthened into a hurricane early on September 28. Uncertainty in the storm's future increased as the nearby Hurricane Glenn began to curve east. Hope subsequently weakened back to a tropical storm from the nearby Glenn's outflow. On September 30, Hope and Glenn passed within 100 miles of each other, but both retained their respective identities. The following evening, Hope began to accelerate northeast and restrengthen, eventually reaching its peak strength as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 965 mbar. Hope retained its Category 2 status until late October 4, when dry air and cooler waters quickly weakened the system. It made a very close pass to Newfoundland as a minimal hurricane early the following morning, degrading to a tropical storm several hours later. Hope became extratropical on October 5 while 230 miles (370 km) east of Cape Freels, Newfoundland, and lost its identity shortly thereafter.

### **Tropical Storm Ian**

 Duration
 Intensity

A weak tropical wave exited the west coast of Africa on October 2. As it neared the Lesser Antilles, ships and satellite observations indicated that a tropical depression developed on the afternoon of October 9, while located about 450 miles (724 km) east of St. Lucia. Early the following morning, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Ian. It later peaked with winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and a pressure of 985 mbar on October 11. Ian made a west-northwesterly curve around a ridge, weakening as it did so. It became extratropical on October 14, having caused only minor impacts in the Lesser Antilles; mostly in Barbuda.

### **Hurricane Janie**

 Duration
 Intensity

### **Tropical Storm Kiev**

 Duration
 Intensity

On October 31, a broad low pressure area developed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. After an increase in convective organization, the system developed into a tropical depression about 110 miles (177 km) southwest of the Cayman Islands on November 2. By the following day, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Kiev. Around 0000 UTC on November 4, Kiev reached its minimum barometric pressure of 1001 mbar (29.9 inHg). Shortly thereafter, the cyclone made landfall on the southwestern coast of the Santiago de Cuba Province in Cuba with winds of 45 mph (75 mph), the highest observed winds in relation to the system. Kiev weakened to a minimal tropical storm while passing over the island, and began to undergo extratropical transition while passing through the Bahamas. Shortly after emerging in the Atlantic on November 5, Kiev completed its transition into a post-tropical cyclone, and eventually dissipated out in the Atlantic. The storm caused only minimal impacts throughout its life.

## **Storm names**

The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This particular list had not been used in any previous season, as it was drafted by the Jarrell Meteorological Center (JMC); a independent branch of atmospheric observation and research stationed in Central Texas. It was the first list from the agency to follow the NHC's trend of alternating male to female names without any overlapping, which had been present in its preceding lists. It was the first use for all of these names since the post-2016 naming change, except for Daisy, Fern, Hope and Ian; which had been previously used in 1962, 1971, 1978, and 2016, respectively. Names that were not assigned are marked in gray.

* Brittany
* Carter
* Daisy
* Eliott
* Fern
* Glenn
* Ian
* Janie
* Kiev
* Laura *(unused)*
* Magnus *(unused)*
* Nelle *(unused)*
* Pamela *(unused)*
* Ron *(unused)*
* Sarena *(unused)*
* Tate *(unused)*
* Venus *(unused)*
* Wilson *(unused)*

### **Retirement**

On March 18, 2020, at the 42nd session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name *Janie* from its rotating naming lists due to the number of deaths and amount of damage it caused, and will not be used again for another Atlantic hurricane. It will be replaced with *Jasmine* for the 2025 season.

## Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.