2021 Power Rankings-Week 13

## Introduction

Week 13. Usually this is the week where we run back the history of all the season finales. We talk about the history (or in some cases, the Shitstory) of the teams competing for playoff spots in this week. Usually there's one win-and-in scenario throughout. If we're lucky, we could get two matchups with massive playoff implications.

Not this year. This year, this is just the penultimate episode of the season 11 saga. With the new week added, you could be forgiven for thinking that we are at the conclusion of what has been an up-and-down season for just about every team, regardless of record. The new IR rules thanks to COVID have made it so that any player with a bruise on their shin can get a three-week stint on IR nowadays. But no, week 13 is just another week.

As far as just another week goes, this week is still PACKED with drama.

Two teams can be eliminated.

Two teams can clinch.

Three teams are already in the dance and fighting for the byes.

It's going to be another fun one in the LOC.

## Who's Hot, Who's Not?

Just as a reminder: charts are color-coded on the website but only if you read on your computer. Nothing has color on mobile.

Scoring Over Last Three Weeks
 The Stupid Idiots
 Multiverse of Mattness
 Papa's Posse
 The Shotti Bunch
 Duck Punchers
 Paddock 9
 Pain Train
 Sweet Dee
 RIPDab

BAD look for Nate to be down here with three non-playoff teams. That being said, he has been without Murray and Hopkins. Yeah, we've all been without key players. Not an excuse. But we should see what he can do with his two best boiz back in week 13.

## Matchup Recap

This is the first time in LOC history that all five matchups in a single week were second legs of a double-header and all five were won by the same team that had won the first matchup.

* Multiverse of Mattness gets a step closer to the Festival with a double-header win vs. Papa's Posse (13-6). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* RIPDab gets back on track with a win, albeit a shitty one, vs. powerhouse Stupid Idiots (3-6). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Duck Punchers beats Pain Train into the consolation tourney, extending their matchup win streak to five games in the process (11-6). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Ma ma momma said moves into first place with a take-down of last place paddock 9 (9-7). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* The Shotti Bunch is back in control of his own destiny after knocking off Sweet Dee (10-3). **Next Matchup: N/A**

## Stat Chat

* Duck Punchers becomes the 1st team to reach 90 regular season wins!!!!
* Duck Punchers ties Shotti Bunch for the most seasons with 8 or more wins (6).
* Duck Punchers breaks the record for most blowout of the week wins (20).
* Mattness becomes the 6th team to reach 70 regular season wins.
* Paddock 9 becomes the 2nd team to reach 80 regular season losses.
* Paddock 9 has SMASHED the single-season moves record, set by him four times over. He is the first team to break 80 regular season roster moves and has the potential to break 90 moves before the week is up.
* Pain Train is on a four-game losing streak for the first time since 2016.
* Paddock 9 becomes the 16th team to lose 10 games in a regular season. Only three teams have lost 11 games. No teams have ever lost 12.
* Shotti clinches a 9th season of 6+ wins.
* Pain Train is the only team that has had a 4-8 record through 12 weeks since 2013. He has been 4-8 three times during that span.

## Seasons of 10 or More Losses

Paddock 9 joins Commish at the top of this awful list.

Seasons of 10 or more Losses by Each Team
 Paddock 9
 Papa's Posse
 ma ma momma said
 RIPDab
 Sweet Dee
 The Stupid Idiots
 The Shotti Bunch
 Duck Punchers

## Playoffs??

So, here's where things stand:

5th-7th is all knotted up with 6-6 records. 8th place Dee is 5-7 which means if she makes playoffs it will have to be with a 7-7 record. For the moment, let's remove her from the equation.

Papa, RIPDab, and Shotti all face different teams this week. They could all win. That would make them all 7-7. With me so far?

Here's the rub: Shotti and Nate play each other in week 14. So even in the scenario where all three teams go into week 14 7-6, one of those teams is guaranteed to lose. What does that mean? It means **it is mathematically impossible for the 7th seed to have more than 7 wins.** At most, two of the three 6-6 teams can get to 8-6. The third will either be 7-7 or 6-8.

Now that the boring math is out of the way...Congratulations to momma and Duck Punchers. With their wins in week 12, they have clinched the playoffs. Momma has been in a severe drought and this is their best regular season record in six seasons. They join The Stupid Idiots as the three teams already guaranteed a playoff spot.

With the right wins/losses, two more teams can clinch this week while two others can be officially eliminated.

### Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. These take into account scoring differentials deemed to be significant.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarantee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

### Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Thirteen Scenarios

* **ma ma momma said** clinches a first round bye with:
	+ **Win** and **loss** by Duck Punchers
* **The Multiverse of Mattness** clinches playoffs with:
	+ **Win** or
	+ **Losses** by The Shotti Bunch and RIPDab
* **Papa's Posse** clinches playoffs with:
	+ **Win** and **losses** by The Shotti Bunch and RIPDab

* **Sweet Dee** is eliminated with:
	+ **Loss** or
	+ **Wins** by two of The Shotti Bunch, RIPDab, and Papa's Posse
* Pain Train is eliminated with:
	+ **Loss** or
	+ **Wins** by two of The Shotti Bunch, RIPDab, and Papa's Posse

## Above and Below

I liked this chart last week so I'm keeping it up the rest of the year.

### Above/Below?

Eight teams failed to meet projection this week. Only Duck and Momma, in playoff clinching performances, beat their projection.

## Best Case Scenarios

What is the best case scenario for each team in week 13?

Win and...

1. Momma - Losses by Duck, Commish, and Shotti
2. The Stupid Idiots - Losses by Duck, Commish, and Shotti
3. Duck Punchers - Losses by Idiots, Commish, Shotti, and Dab
4. Commish - Losses by Idiots, Shotti, Dab, and Papa
5. Shotti - Losses by Idiots, Mattness, Dab, and Papa
6. Dab - Losses by Idiots, Commish, Shotti, and Papa
7. Papa - Losses by Idiots, Commish, Shotti, and Dab
8. Dee - Losses by Shotti, Dab, and Posse
9. Pain Train - Losses by Shotti, Dab, and Dee
10. Paddock 9 - Losses by Dee and Pain Train

## Trade Tracker

Hopkins is about to be back!

Starts (Paddock 9):

* Kirk: 3
* Reagor: 0

Starts (RIPDab)

* Hopkins: 4
* Williams: 1

Starts (ma ma momma said):

* Dallas Goedert: 4

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* J.D. McKissic: 3

Mattness benched McKissic and his two-TD performance in week 13. Now he's hurt, but could play a crucial role in the playoffs if Kamara can't recover from his injuries.

Starts (Papa's Posse):

* Darrell Mooney: 2
* Zach Ertz: 1

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* Aaron Rodgers: 2
* Noah Fant: 1

All of a sudden, Mooney is a hot ticket. But Mattness did what he needed to do and has yet to lose with his new QB.

## Power Rankings - Week Thirteen

* APT: **RECORD AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS**

* L3: **RECORD OVER LAST THREE GAMES**

### 1(2). Ma ma momma said (8-4)

* APT: 4-2
* L3: 3-0

Not really fair to say momma "hasn't skipped a beat" since losing Henry. More accurately, they skipped one or two beats but then got back on the beat after that. One thing to be concerned about: Chase seems to have cooled off a bit, maybe even hit a "rookie wall," That, and losing Swift right before playoffs for an undisclosed amount of time, adds up to some unwanted questions.

### 2(4). Duck Punchers (8-4)

* APT: 4-3
* L3: 2-1

Pretty tough couple of games to end the season here for Duck with a 12-12 combined record. Their team may be superior to Dabs, but it's a rough looking schedule for his guys. Allen against New England on Monday night, Lockett against San Francisco, Harris vs. Buffalo. It's not ideal.

### 3(1). The Stupid Idiots (8-4)

* APT: 5-3
* L3: 2-1

Regardless of what happens to Nick, he's had his best regular season ever. It's a small consolation at this point. Glory Bowl or bust seems to be in the cards after sacrificing a 3rd for Tyreek Hill, who returns this evening vs. Denver. They're off to a solid start with Harris double projections vs. Dallas while Prescott proved to be lackluster vs. New Orleans.

### 4(3). The Multiverse of Mattness (7-5)

* APT: 3-4
* L3: 2-1

Scoring about 20 over the league average over the last four weeks, 2nd most wins, and things are lining up for the entire team to be back JUST in time for playoffs. Everything seems great. There's only one problem. They still don't have a points tie-breaker with anyone they are competing with. All it would take is a not-farfetched 0-2 finish, coupled with a single win for each of the 6-6 teams, and this squad could be at full strength just in time to compete for a Heart and Soul Bowl.

### 5(6). The Shotti Bunch (6-6)

* APT: 1-5
* L3: 1-2

The loss of Deebo Samuel cannot be understated. It's been one thing after another all season for Shotti and you just wonder how many more hits they can take.

### 6(5). Papa's Posse (6-6)

* APT: 2-6
* L3: 2-1

They were due for a game like this, it just came at the worst possible time. Now they are without Dalvin Cook and in need of at least one, probably two more wins in order to lock in a playoff spot. The good new is that even though they're the 7th seed, they are in control of their own destiny. Just go 2-0 and you're in.

### 7(7). RIPDab (6-6)

* APT: 3-2
* L3: 1-2

It's not enough that his two top guys are back. They need to actually play well. Chicago in adverse weather conditions isn't an ideal first game back, and projections for Hopkins reflect that. We also have to wonder just when the Rams are going to get their offense back on track. Questions will be answered today, one way or another.

### 8(8). Pain Train (4-8)

* APT: 3-6
* L3: 0-3

Somehow not eliminated yet, but it would take literally everything to go right over the next two weeks. It starts with beating Papa today and hoping at least one of Shotti and Dab loses (and whoever of them loses this week also would need to lose next week).

### 9(9). Sweet Dee (5-7)

* APT: 3-5
* L3: 1-2

Always plays Commish tough, so expect a pretty big game from Dee today and possibly a improbable win-and-in vs. Paddock 9 in week 14. As far as 5-7 teams go, this isn't a terrible position to be in right now.

### 10(10). Paddock 9

* APT: 1-6
* L3: 1-2

Hilarious strategy by Paddock 9 to scoop up as many defenses as possible so that Shotti had limited options on the waiver wire. It sort of worked. The Chargers are giving up a lot of points and haven't broken 20 FPs since week 4. If this Pinky and the Brain scheme somehow results in an upset victory, it would be pretty sweet revenge for how things turned out in 2021. After all, Paddock 9 won a championship by trading all his picks to Shotti. And here we are.

## Matchup of the Week - Showdown for the Summit

Momma vs. Stupid Idiots. Winner pretty much guaranteed a bye. Loser likely out of the running for the Commissioner's Cup.