2038-41 Persian Political Crisis

The **2038-41 Persian Political Crisis** was a prolonged period of political tensions, instability, and civil unrest in the Republic of Persia which followed former president Geena Kulmuni's return to Persia in August 2038 and lasted until the formation of a new government after the 2039 general election in November 2039.

## Background

 Main articles: 2034-35 Persian Constitutional Crisis and Treaty of Shanghai
During her eleven year tenure as president of Persia from 2024 to 2035, Geena Kulmuni consolidated large degrees of power in the presidency and was widely criticised for engaging in democratic backsliding and side-lining of political opponents. Her presidency was marked by close ties with the neighbouring Libirachi Fox Dynasty and for authoritarian uses of armed force against protestors. In September 2033, following the Bovido Imperium's invasion of Persian ally Egypt, the Persian government joined with the Fox Dynasty to declare war against the Bovido Imperium; in response, Bovido forces bombed the Persian capital Nupersia in November 2033 and killed prime minister Emanuel Parra. The assault on Nupersia granted Kulmuni the pretext needed to shut down the National People's Congress, and the following year, Kulmuni invoked an article of the constitution to delay elections and prolong her presidency, sparking a constitutional crisis. After an attempted coup nearly removed her from power, President Kulmuni scheduled new elections, which were won by opposition leader Hassen Ahmed; in the wake of her defeat, Kulmuni was appointed as general secretary of the Libirachi-dominated Shanghai Pact and remained a key Libirachi ally.

After nearly five years of war, the Bovido Imperium ultimately capitulated to the Shanghai Pact over the summer of 2038, resulting in the opening of a more formal peace negotiations between the two sides. Following major disagreements between leaders of the Shanghai Pact over the details of such negotiations, President Hassen Ahmed began campaigning for Kulmuni to resign as general secretary; the move has been characterised by historians as being primarily motivated by personal animosity between Ahmed and Kulmuni, rather than any serious policy disagreement. After the campaign gained the backing of influential leaders within the alliance, such as Isgardian president Melinia Vicetti and Ruthenian first minister Alex Glyn, Kulmuni resigned on August 17, 2038 and returned to Persia.

## Political Crisis

### August - September 2038

Following Geena Kulmuni's return to Persia in the evening of August 17, 2038, she immediately assumed full control over the opposition Progressive Party, having delegated control over the party to her deputy Amal Alamuddin during her tenure as general secretary of the Shanghai Pact, though Alamuddin remained as the official leader of the opposition as the most senior Progressive party member in the National People's Congress. On August 24, 2038, Kulmuni's Progressive party tabled impeachment articles against President Hassen Ahmed with the support of parliamentary Union for Persia (UfP) rebels and the Islamic Conservative Party; the support of rebels within the UfP and the backing of the Islamic Conservative party leadership meant that the impeachment proposal was almost certain to succeed. Consequently, on September 1, 2038, President Ahmed unilaterally dissolved the Persian congress and called for new elections in a bid to regain control over the legislature and dismiss the impeachment motion, sparking protests and public denouncements from opposition supporters, who accused Ahmed of attempting a "coup on democracy" to stay in power.

During the ensuing election campaign, the Progressive party pledged to impeach President Hassen Ahmed, whilst Ahmed's Union for Persia pledged to implement constitutional amendments to cap presidential terms at two, thereby blocking Kulmuni from assuming the presidency again. Despite never having contested an election, the newly formed Halqa party under the leadership of Rania Al-Yassin soared in popularity in many densely populated city areas as the movement capitalised on growing frustration with the two-party dominant system in Persia. Despite an intense electoral campaign, the Union for Persia failed to preserve its already slim majority in congress and lost over fifty seats; similarly, the Progressive party lost twenty two seats, whilst Halqa gained over seventy seats and the Islamic Conservative Party gained two. With both major parties having lost seats and minor parties gaining seats, the newly elected congress was a hung parliament with no viable governing coalitions. With the Union for Persia having lost its majority and only narrowly retaining a plurality in congress, prime minister Tamim bin Hamad tendered his resignation to President Hassen Ahmed and returned to the backbenches of the chamber. Following intense political negotiations over the weekend of September 25-26, President Ahmed appointed defence minister Salman Al-Khalifa as prime minister of a minority UfP government after failing to win the support of Rania Al-Yassin's Halqa party for a coalition.

### September 2038 - April 2039

Without a majority in the chamber, Prime Minister Al-Khalifa's government initially struggled to gain the backing of congress, resulting in the Progressive party tabling a motion of confidence against him; however, the abstention of Halqa and the Islamic Conservative Party on the vote allowed Al-Khalifa to remain as prime minister. On October 17, 2038, the Union for Persia and Halqa jointly passed a constitutional amendment which imposed a two term presidential term limit, effectively prohibiting former president Geena Kulmuni from holding office again. A further constitutional amendment in late 2038 shrunk presidential terms to four years and moved forwards scheduled presidential elections to November 2039. Amid the ongoing political crisis and economic downturn, President Hassen Ahmed had become one of the most unpopular presidents in Persian history as voters grew increasingly disillusioned with his style of governance and the failure of his governments to implement many of his 2035 campaign pledges. Against the backdrop of the ongoing crises, former prime minister Tamim bin Hamad began canvassing within the Union for Persia to launch a leadership challenge against President Ahmed's role as head of the party in October 2038 and was supported by several influential party grandees; however, on December 7, 2038, Hassen Ahmed resigned as party leader and appointed prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa as his successor with the support of the party's national executive body as part of a scheme to prevent Tamim bin Hamad taking control of the party.

Having lost control of the Union for Persia, President Hassen Ahmed's position in government became *de-facto* reduced to a political lame duck status with no real power or influence over government policy and reliant upon the support of prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa to remain in office. Equally, Al-Khalifa's position of power both over Ahmed and the congressional UfP delegation *de-facto* made him the most powerful figure within government, though his lack of a congressional majority still left the government in a weak position in relation to the opposition. The removal of Hassen Ahmed from the leadership of the UfP also indicated that the party would seek a new lead candidate for the presidency in the 2039 election, sparking a fierce competition between the conservative and progressive factions of the ideologically diverse party; during the first hustings for the nomination in January 2039, major candidates such as former leader Mohammad Ghalibaf, former prime minister Tamim bin Hamad, prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa, and interior secretary Samir Geagea all launched campaigns for the presidency, indicating a fundamental ideological divide between factions of the party. Opposition leaders were quick to seize on the display of internal division and on February 23, 2039, Geena Kulmuni of the Progressive party tabled a motion of no confidence in the Al-Khalifa Ministry, which passed the following day by a vote of 261-243 after 18 UfP members voted against the government and other major opposition parties abstained. However, because the measure failed to gain the support of more than half of the National People's Congress' 600 members, Al-Khalifa's administration remained in office but significantly weakened by its lack of support from congress.

### April - June 2039

On March 29, 2039, prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa held a press conference in Dubai to announce that the government would be bringing forward the scheduled December budget to April 2039 in order to better position the government ahead of the upcoming general election in November 2039. After the customary presentation of the budget to the National People's Congress for debate and approval by finance secretary Mohammad Al-Katari on April 16, 2039, the budget was defeated by a vote of 339-261 after Halqa leader Rania Al-Yassin came out in opposition to the proposed cuts to education and healthcare budgets, a direct U-turn from the government's earlier pledge in September 2038 to ringfence money for the departments. The failure of the 2039 budget to secure the approval of the Persian congress and the subsequent lack of an alternative budget to be voted upon meant that the legislative session was automatically terminated, and a new legislative election was called for May 11, 2039. During the election campaign, party approaches to cooperation with the governing Union for Persia became a key political issue, whilst the emergence of a series of smaller political parties significantly eroded the voter bases of the established parties, resulting in the election of a hung congress with the UfP as the largest party.

With the results of the May congressional elections having left no party capable of governing by themselves, prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa remained in office in a caretaker capacity with a constitutional mandate until the formation of a new administration. The failure of the Progressive party to gain any new seats in the election prompted significant speculation surrounding the future of party leader Geena Kulmuni after 17 years of leadership, which was furthered by the effective disappearance of Kulmuni between May 18 and May 23, 2039, and the refusal of party spokespeople to comment on Kulmuni's position. During a scheduled press conference on May 23, 2039, Geena Kulmuni made a surprise appearance to announce her resignation as party leader "in the interests of the party" and announced her support for Amal Alamuddin as her successor; with minimal internal opposition, Alamuddin was elected general secretary of the Progressive Party on May 27, 2039 and became leader of the opposition the same day. Similarly, Salman Al-Khalifa's defeat in the election prompted him to pledge his resignation in favour of whomever the Union for Persia selected as their presidential nominee for the 2039 election.

The resignation of Kulmuni and the promised resignation of Al-Khalifa provided a starting point for negotiations between parties in the National People's Congress, and on June 4, 2039, the leaders of both parties met for secret coalition talks. After a negotiation breakthrough on June 9, 2039, the two parties publicly announced their intention to form an interim grand coalition government until the November general election, with the office of prime minister first being held by Salman Al-Khalifa and then rotating to Amal Alamuddin halfway through the government's tenure on August 26, 2039. The following day, President Hassen Ahmed granted Al-Khalifa permission to form a new ministry comprised of both UfP and PP members; during the appointment of ministers, Alamuddin was appointed as deputy prime minister and alternate prime minister.

### June - September 2039

With the formation of the new grand coalition administration on June 10, 2039, President Hassen Ahmed formally chaired the first meeting of the new cabinet on June 12, 2039 and instructed the cabinet to prepare for the general election in November 2039, as well as to "safeguard the pillars of democracy" and to have a prepared contingency plan in the instance that the elections were disrupted. Following a meeting with prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa and deputy prime minister Amal Alamuddin the same day, President Ahmed pledged to conduct a several month-long international tour on behalf of the government, widely perceived by Persian media as a quasi-exile designed to keep the most unpopular face of government out of the country during the ongoing crisis to prevent civil discontent; the tour was criticised by trade unions and opposition media, who raised concerns about constitutional protocol and whether the cabinet had the legitimate authority to govern whilst the president was out of the country for an extended period of time. Ahmed departed for the first leg of his tour on July 1, 2039 to visit Libirachi president Karyn Voor in Beijing, prompting demonstrations in the streets of Dubai and Jeddah. During the protests, several ideologically distinct figures came out in support of the movement, such as former president Geena Kulmuni and former prime minister Tamim bin Hamad; Kulmuni in particular also attacked the Progressive party for joining with the Union for Persia, and denounced "the apparent emergence of a uniparty establishment clique at the seat of government". Amid the ongoing crisis, prime minister Al-Khalifa announced the formation of a new security division within the ministry of the interior, known as the National Security Unit, with the central mission of protecting senior politicians and public property; however, the forces became mired in controversy on August 12, 2039 after videos circulated online showing an NSU guard beating an elderly woman in the streets of Kuwait city, prompting fierce backlash.

On August 26, 2039, prime minister Salman Al-Khalifa resigned as prime minister and handed power over to his coalition partner Amal Alamuddin, who in turn appointed him as deputy prime minister. Under the leadership of Alamuddin, the new government sought to bring forward the presidential election by several weeks to Saturday November 5th, 2039 in order to give enough time for legal challenges and a potential re-run of the election if required; after the passing of the change through the National People's Congress on September 1, 2039, anti-government protests occurred in Dubai and forced the legislative session to end after protesters attempted to storm the congress building. During the first weeks of the new government, the Union for Persia's presidential candidate nomination process entered their final stages; with party leader Salman Al-Khalifa's pledged resignation, the contest had become a *de-facto* leadership election, with Al-Khalifa backing Mohammad Ghalibaf for the position against the popular former prime minister Tamim bin Hamad. On September 13, 2039, Tamim bin Hamad was elected as the party's nominee for the presidency, and the following day Salman Al-Khalifa resigned as leader of the Union for Persia in favour of bin Hamad.

### September - November 2039

Following the appointment of the conservative populist Tamim bin Hamad as leader of the Union for Persia on September 14, 2039, the future of the governing grand coalition between the UfP and the leftist Progressive Party was thrown into considerable doubt; throughout his leadership campaign, bin Hamad had frequently criticised the Progressive party for its role in Geena Kulmuni's presidency and for imposing Keynesian economic theory on the Persian government, and had pledged to end the coalition between the two parties if elected. Similarly, prime minister Amal Alamuddin had denounced bin Hamad as "a crackpot businessman with no understanding of modern society" and pledged to cut ties with a UfP under his leadership. On September 20, 2039, Tamim bin Hamad announced the end of the coalition agreement between the two parties and ordered party members to cease cooperation with the government; however, a delegation of 93 UfP representatives continued to cooperate with the Progressive party and were appointed to fill gaps in the government. The cooperation of UfP members with the government, despite the instructions of party leadership, meant that bin Hamad was prevented from assuming office as leader of the opposition as members of his party were supporting the Alamuddin administration.

In late October 2039, President Hassen Ahmed returned to the country following months of effective exile at the advice of the Al-Khalifa and Alamuddin governments; however, whilst the constitutional head of state and leader of the government, by October 2039 Ahmed wielded almost no power within the government, with executive power having largely seeped down to the prime minister, whilst control over the UfP had been transferred to first Salman Al-Khalifa and then Tamim bin Hamad, meaning that Ahmed's position existed solely as an unpopular figurehead of a struggling government. Even within the Union for Persia, which Ahmed had formed in 2027, the dominant conservative faction explicitly disowned him, whilst the moderate centrist faction distanced themselves from his leadership. On October 1, 2039, the National People's Congress dissolved itself in preparation for new elections; during the campaign process, Tamim bin Hamad held mass rallies in major cities across the country calling for a "democratic revolution" against the country's "institutionalised rulers" and frequently polled as the most popular politician in the country during the campaign. The Halqa party's refusal to engage in the election process meant that the only major opposition to bin Hamad was the deeply unpopular Progressive Party and its leader Amal Alamuddin, who struggled to unite left-wing factions behind her candidacy.

After voting for both legislative and presidential elections concluded on November 5, 2039, exit polls projected a significant decline in popular vote for both the Union for Persia and Progressive Party, whilst Tamim bin Hamad's UfP was projected as the largest party in the National People's Congress. On November 7, 2039, full electoral results were published, which showed bin Hamad as being confirmed as president-elect, whilst the Union for Persia held 199 out of 600 seats in congress, compared to the Progressive Party's 183 and Halqa's 99 seats. The following week, on November 17, 2039, Tamim bin Hamad was formally inaugurated by chief justice Adly Mansour as the tenth president of the Republic of Persia.

## See Also

* 2034-35 Persian Constitutional Crisis
* Conquest of Africa
* Treaty of Shanghai