Episode 1197: Real Baseball is Back

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jeff’s research into the performance of college teams vs. MLB teams in spring training, then reach into the grab bag for a selection of topics inspired by actual baseball, including Kyle Schwarber’s defense, the Astros’ four-man outfield (and whether Joey Gallo should bunt to beat it), Mike Trout’s un-Trout-like start to the season, Felix Hernandez and Noah Syndergaard, the optimal order of starting pitchers in the first week of the season, the bypassed bullpen cart, Gabe Kapler’s divisive decision-making, and more. Lastly, they critique and respond to ESPN writer Jerry Crasnick’s latest survey of baseball executives about the season’s biggest stories.*

## Topics

* Kyle Schwarber's defense
* Matt Davidson's three homer game
* Opening day Statcast data
* Houston Astros' four-man outfield
* Bunting against the shift
* Bullpen cart
* Aroldis Chapman's fastball speed
* Gabe Kapler's decisions
* Felix Hernandez
* Opening Day rotation order
* Jerry Crasnick's GM survey

## Banter

Ben & Jeff discuss Jeff's article about college teams playing MLB teams in spring training.

## Email Questions

* Joseph: "I assume you guys saw the Astros' defense of Joey Gallo yesterday, is there a situation that he should bunt against that type of defense? Being faster than your average power hitter would mean that his bunt wouldn't even have to be as good for him to get on base. Obviously a walk is a 1.000 OBP but if no one would complain if you walked every time against the shift why would people complain if you were able to bunt 50% of the time successfully?"
* Mark: "I've got a question that's probably only relevant this week. On the Mariners preview if I remember right Jeff said something like 'I'm not sure if Felix deserves to be the opening day starter' and in a Mariners group on Facebook there was a fairly silly debate about whether Felix or Paxton should start on opening day. But, I'm not sure, does it even matter? Is there any evidence that starting your pitchers 1-5 from best to worst is the best order? Could there be an advantage to starting your best pitcher against the other guys' #3 or 4? I'm certain the order doesn't matter in the least after the first couple weeks once guys every team starts getting hurt, days off, etc. But for the first week is there really an optimal order to the rotation?"

## Notes

* From 2009-18 MLB teams are 63-4 against college teams in spring training games.
* Mike Trout failed to reach base in the Angels' opener, it was the first time he did not reach base in his career when getting 6 plate appearances.
* Alex Bregman caught Joey Gallo's pop up after being positioned in left field, but still counts as a third basemen in the official rules.
* No relievers in the Diamondbacks/Rockies game used the bullpen cart.
* The Mariners no longer distribute 'K' signs to the Kings Court fan section when Felix Hernandez pitches, and are trying to get him to pitch to contact more.
* Ben thinks Bryce Harper will sign with the Nationals. Jeff guesses the Dodgers.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1197 Real Baseball is Back
* When College Teams Face the Pros by Jeff Sullivan
* Defining Positions in the Age of the Shift by Ben Lindbergh
* Aaron Nola, 68 pitches, and the first evidence that Gabe Kapler's Phillies will ride the numbers without regrets. Yet. by Matt Gelb
* On rotation order and win probabilities by Dan Lependorf
* Opening Day survey: $400 million for Harper? A Yankees letdown? MLB execs size up 2018by Jerry Crasnick