Episode 1110: Pitch-Tipping is Appreciated

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Indians (again), the AL Cy Young race, Jacoby Ellsbury’s new record, the 2018 MLB schedule (and the possibility of a pitch clock), and Shohei Otani’s impending availability. Then they answer listener emails about Mookie Betts, what constitutes the “heart of the order,” ERA hypotheticals, the hot corner, sign-stealing vs. pitch-tipping, and more.*

## Topics

* Defining 'heart of the order'
* Mookie Betts' drop off from 2017
* Team winning percentages based on starter ERA
* Episode 1107 follow-up: The hot corner and Infielder distance to home plate
* Episode 1107 follow-up: Differing impact of pitch tipping or sign stealing
* Episode 1109 follow-up: Up vs. down the line

## Banter

* The Dodgers finally ended their losing streak while the Indians' winning streak continued.
* AL Cy Young race - Corey Kluber and Chris Sale
* Replay overturned a walk-off win by the Phillies (the game went another five innings)
* Episode 1077 follow-up: Jacoby Ellsbury broke Pete Rose's record for reaching on base from catcher's interference.
* Changes to 2018 season start dates
* Implementation of pitch clocks
* Shohei Otani seems likely to sign with a MLB team this offseason. Caps on international spending will severely limit Ohtani's earning potential on his initial contract.

## Email Questions

* Daniel: "The heart of the order in baseball history has meant 3-4-5 but this led to a discuss with my friends about what the true heart of the order is in 2017. Should the heart of the order be 2-3-4, 2-3-4-5, does it vary based on lineup construction? Does it need to be three hitters in a row?"
* Steve: "So why is Mookie Betts failing to live up to last year's MVP caliber season? His OPS+ is down and his power is considerably down. He is also walking more, so is this just a matter of pitchers throwing more conservatively to a known threat? He hasn't been bad by any means but what happened?"
* Robin: "We have Pitcher A who every time he pitches he goes 6 innings and allows 2 runs (ERA of 3). You have Pitcher B who half the time goes 6 IP no runs and the other half the time goes 6 IP and 4 ER (still ERA of 3). Which pitcher would you take?"
* Curtis: "Suppose a pitcher has an ERA of 4.50 and another pitcher has an ERA of 3.50. Now consider if a pitcher has an ERA of 1.50 and another pitcher has an ERA of 0.50. Would you value the one run difference the same? Is the value added from one run difference in ERA diminished in the lower numbers? Where are the greatest returns from a change in ERA?"
* Brian: "Why would sign stealing not help a batter and pitch tipping be devastating to a pitcher?

## Stat Segment

* The stat segment is based on Robin and Curtis' emails.
* Over the past decade when a starter goes 6 IP with 2 ER his team has won 59.2% of the time.
* Over the past decade when a starter goes 6 IP with 0 ER his team wins 84.4% of the time. Over the past decade when a starter goes 6 IP and 4 ER his team wins 34.7% of the time.
* For every 1 ER allowed from 0 to 4 runs the diminishing return is roughly the same (about 12-13% of winning percentage).

## Notes

* Clayton Kershaw has had nearly 40 starts in his career against the Giants. His recent start where he had 6 IP and 1 ER was, by game score, his third worst against the team.
* Catcher's interference counts as a plate appearance but contributes to no other statistics.
* 2018 will be the first time since 1968 that all teams will play on opening day.
* Based on OPS numbers this year Jeff thinks that 2-3-4 would be the heart of the order.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1110: Pitch-Tipping is Appreciated