Episode 1056: You Only Swing Once

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jeff’s day off and Ron Fowler’s comments about Jered Weaver, then answer listener emails about baseball’s arbitrary rules, David Ross’s unexpected cultural cachet, the definition of a “slugfest,” Manny Machado’s relationship with the Red Sox, the softening of the tone of sabermetric writing over the past two decades, “Three True Outcomes” percentage and overreactions to changes in the game, pitch-clock countdowns, poor performance during hitting streaks, limiting Mike Trout to one swing per plate appearance, how to root for an independent or minor league team, loaning hitters to the KBO, and more.*

## Topics

* Arbitrary baseball rules
* David Ross' meteoric rise
* Baseball terminology - Slugfest
* Shifting tone of baseball writing
* Rise of three true outcomes
* Manny Machado and the Boston Red Sox
* Mike Trout hypothetical
* Loaning MLB players
* Rooting for independent/MILB teams

## Banter

* Jeff took a day off as part of a successful midnight summit attempt of Mount St. Helens.
* Review of Ron Fowler's mean comments about Jered Weaver.

## Email Questions

* Ezra: "As I watched Chris Davis strike out for the 1,353th time, I wondered: how much of a player's ability is dependent on the arbitrary rules of baseball? If, for instance, strikeouts automatically ended the inning, would Chris Davis have adjusted his approach long ago and still made his way to the Big Leagues, or would he have washed out in single A? If fences were moved fifty feet back, would Giancarlo Stanton be the greatest player of all time, or would *all* of the physical freaks have adjusted? What percent of each player's skill set is unique to the rules of baseball, and what percent would be applicable to any similar sport?"
* Sanjay: "Has any player had their national profile rise as rapidly, and unexpectedly, as David Ross? Going into the 2016 season, David Ross was a solid and unspectacular part-time catcher. Career line of .228/.314/.421, 8 bWAR, reputation as a very good defender and teammate. Looks like a very nice career, a guy that eventually gets a nice SABR biography, maybe carves out a role in coaching or front offices. That said, he was coming off a mediocre year and it seemed like a lot of Cubs fans were ready to DFA him for Willson Contreras before the season started. After that point, he: - Puts up almost 2 bWAR in only 205 PA, and gets attention as the de facto captain of the best team in baseball - Hits a home run in game 7 of the World Series and is carried off the field as the Cubs break the curse - Gets a book deal - Appears on Dancing with the Stars and is, apparently, a semifinalist Has anyone gone from "good, but fairly nondescript career" to "on a reality show not hosted by Dr. Drew" like Mr. Ross has?"
* Andrew: "Last week, a friend and I were having a discussion that I thought could use your input. How many runs need to be scored in a game in order for it to be considered a "Slugfest"? It is strictly a runs thing? Do a certain amount of home runs need to be hit? Do both teams need to be doing the slugging, or does the 23-5 Nationals/Mets game that we saw recently qualify a slugfest?"
* Scott: "Recently, and on more than one occasion, Jeff has referenced baseball writing taking on a more positive tone in recent years, but always dismisses the thought as a topic for another episode. I'm hoping one day soon to hear that episode - or, at least, that portion of an episode. I become more and more intrigued with each mention: what are your perceptions about this shifting tone in baseball writing, and what are your insights in to why the shift is occurring? Are either of you deliberate about this in your own writings?"
* Beau: "How high of a percentage of all plate appearances would have to end in a three true outcome before you guys would see the game as broken?"
* Henchman 21: **"**The Red Sox have a glaring hole at third base and have seemingly chosen not to address it despite having a ton of young, cheap talent elsewhere on the roster. Perhaps they believe in a Sandoval bounce back, but the front office had to have had their eye on Manny Machado right? What are the odds they shot themselves in the foot and already took themselves out of the running for him once he's a free agent?"
* Kevin: "I was at the Rangers' AAA Round Rock game on Friday night and it went into extra innings. The game was fun, but 9 innings was enough for me, so in the bottom of the 10th I started chanting the pitch clock countdown to try and mess with the pitcher. As crowds do, the rest of the fans around home plate quickly joined and it led to a rattled reliever walking the #9 hitter, then allowing a single followed by a walkoff double by Jurickson Profar. My question: Is this type of inevitable crowd behavior a fatal flaw with the pitch clock that the players' union would never approve? Or is it a hidden benefit that would increase fan engagement and home field advantage while also helping the pace of play?"
* Jamal: "It's Opening Day 2020. Mike Trout has just won his 5th MVP after leading the MLB in WAR for the 8th consecutive year. He's all but cemented his Hall of Fame resume. But 2019 Trout had risen to heights unseen, posting career highs in every category. So Rob Manfred institutes a new rule to slow down Trout. (Turns out Trout was taking all the shine from all the other players so Manfred needed to even the playing field). He declares that Mike Trout is hereby allotted one swing per plate appearance. He knows this, opposing pitchers know this, fans at the game and watching TV know this. One swing per plate appearance, that's it. So with this new rule instilled, how do opposing pitchers, and Trout, go about playing under these circumstances? When would be the best time to utilize the swing if you're Trout, and how do you attack Trout at the plate knowing he only gets one chance to swing if you're an opposing pitcher? Does falling behind 3-0 to Trout become the optimal time for him to swing, knowing he's getting a down the pipe fastball? Or to pitchers try and get him to chase out of the strike zone pitches early so they're given the freedom to throw strikes knowing he wasted his swing? How would Trout's K% and BB% look by season's end? And finally, is this the limitation that finally lowers Mike Trout to below replacement level bad?"
* Evan: "After the Eric Thames show couple weeks ago I started thinking about KBO pitchers throwing a lot more junk and forcing him to adjust. I'm sure there are plenty of players to can hit fastballs but are just awful on breaking balls, can you even mentioned that it might be beneficial for some players to go to Korea for the sole purpose of pulling a Thames-ian transformation. Most professional soccer teams will loan players for a season or so for various reasons like getting more experience, playing every day, freeing up space, etc. Would it be beneficial for an MLB team to take, for example, a quad-A player who can't hit off speed, loan them to a KBO team for year to fix their junk problems, and then having them come back stateside once they become Super Good? How do signing rights work when a player goes abroad? Are KBO breaking balls \*better\* than AAA?
* Johnny: "I am a relatively new resident of Saint Paul, MN. I live within walking distance of the Saint Paul Saints' beautiful new stadium and intend to engage as a fan of the team when they begin their 2017 season on May 18. What is the best way to root for an independent league team? Should I love the individual players and root for them to advanced to organized ball? Should I focus on the team and root for victories and a championship? Should I attempt to care as little as possible and let the wonders of baseball wash over me?"

## Stat Blast

What are the worst hitting streaks that players have had, for streaks of at least 20 games? There have been 664 of those streaks going back to 1913.

The worst batting average was a streak in 1970 where the player had a .288 average over 20 games. Eddie Foster had an OPS of .652 during a hitting streak, which was lower than his season OPS of .659.

## Notes

* Jeff thinks a 'slugfest' needs at least 4 or 5 home runs, and with the game being reasonably close. Ben thinks both teams need to score in double digits. If the game is not close they think it could be a 'drubbing' or 'blowout'.
* Sabermetric writers used to be writing/fighting an uphill battle. Now baseball has embraced big data.
* Jeff thinks three true outcomes could reach at least 40% before there would be significant talk about baseball being 'broken'.
* Ben & Jeff think that only being able to swing once would perhaps make Mike Trout below average, but still playable.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1056: You Only Swing Once
* Have Bat, Will Strike out or Homer by Ben Lindbergh
* Robbie Ray is making a whole lot of noise on the mound. Literally. by Eddie Matz
* Eric Thames and the Transformative Power of Boredom by Travis Sawchik