Long Range Forecast: Ico, Knives Out, and Queen & Slim

This week’s update welcomes the addition of three wide releases currently slated to debut on Wednesday, November 27 as part of the extended Thanksgiving weekend in the domestic market.

Ico

Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 70 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

* Starring an impressive ensemble cast featuring Finn Wolfhard, Millie Bobby Brown, Emma Thompson, Nicole Kidman, Harrison Ford, Andy Serkis, Forest Whitaker, Daniel Kaluuya, Adrien Brody, Orlando Bloom, Ving Rhames, Keri Russell, and Mahershala Ali, the collective star power of all these actors could give more attraction to the film.
* Gingo Entertainment has previously attracted success in fellow videogame adaption “Cool Spot” which legged time $500.7 million domestically last year.
* Early social media trends are outpacing every animated film since last year.
* It opens during the second weekend of “Frozen II” which could take some of that film’s more older audience.

CONS:

* Word-of-mouth may affect whether this film can make more than “Cool Spot” or not.
* Although this film is leaning towards a more adult audience the film may have some of its audiences taken away by the second weekend of Frozen II.
* It’s hefty budget of $300 million shows that the bar to success is high.

Knives Out

Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

* Boasting an impressive ensemble cast led by Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Michael Shannon, Ana de Armas, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, Lakeith Stanfield, and more, the collective star power of accomplished actors on display could be a strong attraction for a diverse range of adult audiences. The “whodunnit?” premise of the film is also one that helped the fellow ensemble-driven Murder on the Orient Express break out to a $102.8 million domestic run two years ago.
* Rian Johnson is no stranger to successful original stories after his success with Looper, Brick, and several episodes of the iconic television series Breaking Bad. His return to original storytelling here is an encouraging element, especially given the film’s stellar 99 percent Rotten Tomatoes score following early industry screenings.
* Early social media trends for the film’s trailers reveal notable enthusiasm for the film as a counter-programmer that could play well through the holiday season alongside Hollywood’s big franchise titles in December.

CONS:

* Those strong early reviews highlight some less-than-subtle comparisons to current social and political goings-on, which could put off some moviegoers seeking escapism of a more neutral flavor.
* Johnson, unfortunately, drew the social media ire of some Star Wars fans with his unique storytelling choices in The Last Jeditwo years ago, although we expect any splash effect on this film to be minimal (or non-existent) given the significantly different target audience.

Queen & Slim

Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

* Daniel Kaluuya’s starring role is an early selling point following his breakout work in 2017’s Get Out, while Universal’s distribution and marketing could be major advantages for the kind of film that is generally given modest promotion from smaller/indie studios.
* Potential award season contention could elevate this film’s lifespan at the box office, particularly as a counter-programmer not facing any direct genre competition upon release. Arthouse crowds are likely to be a strong driver.

CONS:

* Recent performances by similar dramas like If Beale Street Could Talk and The Hate U Give have us leaning cautious for now. A strong award season push could elevate that outlook, though.
* Although this offers a very different kind of film, adult audiences will already have several other high profile choices in the form of Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Knives Out, among other holdovers and late December releases.