Bolton South East By-Election 2022

This By Election was fought when newly elected MP Dr Yarmid Sheikh was suspended from the Labour party and under the Recall Act 2021 a By Election was forced in her Constituency. Traditionally a very strong Labour Seat but UKIP and the Conservatives have flipped often with a distant second place. Vanguard was less than a year old but after the "March of Freedom" they gained a huge amount of coverage and support and with labour growing more unpopular in the seat Vanguard believed they had a slim chance of gaining their first seat. But most pundits believed Labour would still win comfortably.

Labour selected Fatima Jarvid to stand as their candidate a Councillor on Bolton Council for Little Lever Ward. However throughout the campaign was linked to extremist groups which hugely discredited her campaign.

Vanguard selected their Deputy Leader Hugh Lord to stand for the seat. In a deprived working class constituency and Hugh from only coming from St, Helens, the party saw him the only appropriate choice. Vanguard shipped hundreds of members to the seat and Hugh toured the constituency on a double Decker bus promoting his campaign.

### Swing

-19.0%

Conservatives selected Jessica Richards the 2020 Conservative Bolton South-East Candidate. She currently lives in Salford, Manchester as a Doctor.

Liberal Democrats Selected Fiona Hughes a Solicitor who lives in Bury and was the 2020 Liberal Democrat Candidate for Bury North.

The Green Party Selected Ross Waters a Councillor in Greater Manchester Council who currently works as Lecturer at Salford University.

The Monster Raving Loony Party, UKIP, The Libertarian Party, Renew and 2 Independents were also contesting the seat.

By 14th December the day of the election, Labour were expected to win the By-Election by a margin of 2-1 over Vanguard, with the Conservative slightly behind Vanguard in third. But Hugh Lord still commended the fantastic work by all members and activist for a party less than a year old giving Labour a "run for their money" in a constituency they have held safely for over 100 years.

Throughout the day their was high turnout for a By-Election in a deprived area were it is usually very low.

Hopes were higher for Vanguard during the count when Vanguard began receiving more votes than expected. It seems a larger amount of non-voters, For-Britain, White Working class Labour voters and Conservatives voters had backed Hugh Lord explaining the higher turnout.

### Swing

-17.9%

The final result was:

* Hugh Lord (Vanguard) - 10,344 (34.6%)
* Fatima Jarvid (Labour) - 9,982 (33.4%)
* Jessica Richards (Conservatives) - 4,016 (13.4%)
* Sir Robert Greenfield (Independent) - 2,402 (8.0%)
* Ross Waters (Green Party) - 1,020 (3.3%)
* Fiona Hughes (Liberal Democrats) - 577 (1.9%)
* Peter Reed (UKIP) - 492 (1.6%)
* The Incredible Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony
* Party) - 411 (1.4%)
* Mohammed Salam (Independent) - 322 (1.1%)
* Alicia Peace (Renew) - 315 (1.1%)
* Hugo Blake (Libertarian Party) - 50 (0.2%)

The result was unprecedented as Labour had never lost this seat and a party less than a year old had it's first elected MP. Labour were extremely disappointed by recognized that Vanguard would struggle to hold the seat in a general election. However Hugh Lord stated that "If we can win here, we can swathes of seats over the north." Lucas Fitzgerald welcomed the result as a "Great Victory for the Patriotic Working class."

Hugh Lord would go on to represent the Seat increasing his majority in every election in the seat until 2049 when he resigned to stand for the Presidency of the United Republic.

**Bolton South East- Hugh Lord Results.**

2025- 16,321 / 35.7% (Majority 52) (Turnout 45,739) - Vanguard Gain

2027 - 22,145 / 47.1% (Majority 4,006) (Turnout 47,016) - Vanguard Hold

2029 - 25,894 / 52.0% (Majority 5,435) (Turnout 49,842) - Vanguard Hold

2035 - 31,118 / 67.5% (Majority 15,098) (Turnout 46,132) - Freedom GB Hold

2040 - 37,220 / 74.4% (Majority 29,336) (Turnout 50,026) - Freedom GB Hold

2045 - 39,025 / 74.6% (Majority 21,009) (Turnout 52,301) - Freedom GB Hold

2060 - 43,250 / 71.9% (Majority 39,678) (Turnout 60,130) - Freedom GB Hold