Kashmir War

A devastated neighbourhood in Barramulla

- 45,234 injured

- 8 Mig-23BN downed

- 10 Mig-21 downed

- 2 Mil mi-24

- 4 SEPECAT Tiger

- 3 Mirage 2000

Pakistan:

- 21,359 killed

- 53,425 injured,

- 11 Mirage V downed

- 9 Dassault Mirage III

- 1 C-130 Hercules

- 12 Chengdu J-7 downed

- 3 Aerospatiale SA 330 Puma destroyed

China:

- 4,242 killed

- 12,953 injured

United States:

- 4 killed

- 16 injured

- 1 C-130J destroyed

Soviet Union:

- 1 killed

- 6 injured

- 1 Antonov AN-32 destroyed

Civilian casualties:

- ~20,000 killed in Jammu and Kashmir

- ~4,000 killed in Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir.

The Kashmir War is a major conflict currently occurring in the Kashmir region, with the main participants in the war being China, Pakistan and India, along with Soviet and US support for their respective allies.

## Background

The onset of the war was relatively slow at first. Available information from whistleblowers and various intelligence agencies indicate that the initial planning for the war began in 1996, shortly after the 1996 Pakistani coup d'etat, which saw Benazir Bhutto being overthrown by the Chief of Army Staff Abdul Waheed Kakar following a series of corruption scandals and anti-military decisions undertaken by her. While Kakar pledged to improve relations with India, he and his military allies planned an emergency operation where Pakistan would mount an ambitious invasion of Kashmir if either relations were to collapse to a point where a sudden and swift invasion of Kashmir would heavily benefit Pakistan, or in the far future where a surprise attack during a cordial period of relations would stun India and catch them by surprise. Several methods of appearing friendly to India during 1996 and 1997 while strengthening Pakistan's position were undertaken, such as cooperating on the opening of bus lines and transport routes between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir, which was used by the Pakistani military to send militant forces and spies into Jammu and Kashmir.

Unfortunately for Pakistan, tensions were heavily strained between the two after May 1998, when India tested a nuclear device in the sands of the Thar Desert. According to leaked documents and transcripts, this heavily worried many Pakistani generals, who came to believe that India already knew of their plans to invade Kashmir and had been playing along the entire time. It is unknown if this was indeed the case or if India was simply too distrustful of Pakistan and possibly China to not pursue nuclear weapons. Pakistan had long been developing its own nuclear weapons, allowing it to test its own weapons almost immediately after India in response. Relations between the two collapsed to a situation worse than what had been the case before the supposed improvement in relations. These new developments eventually convinced Pakistani military planners that a war was inevitable, and any chance of victory would require a proactive and fast move.

## Onset of war

As part of their planning, Pakistani forces began and eventually engaged with India in large shelling campaigns in the Doda District, intending to draw Indian forces to the west and distract them. Pakistani forces faked retreats elsewhere to further the idea that Pakistan was focusing on the west. Many Indian ground forces were deeply suspicious, but government officials took the Pakistani bait and diverted forces to retaliate against Pakistani shelling and reinforce the western regions of Jammu and Kashmir, a fact that many have attributed to Indian officials wanting to appeal to their voter bases. Many Indian forces were moved away from specific regions against their will, opening up areas for Pakistan to take over.

At exactly 4:24am Indian standard time, Pakistani forces crossed the border north of the strategic town of Kargil, overwhelming police forces and token Indian forces in the area within hours. Smaller numbers of troops occupied key peaks and valleys elsewhere in Kashmir, while Indian forces scrambled to counterattack effectively.

Pakistan's first major victory was during the Battle of Kashmir, where approximately 12,000 Pakistani forces surrounded the town on the 26th of April, surrounding a force of barely 3,000 Indians. While Indian soldiers attempted to break free, Pakistani forces were able to eventually able to force Indian troops into a surrender due to the general hopelessness of the situation for Indian forces. Political backlash and religious tension as a result of this was intense in India, with large rallies and protests shocking the streets of India. For instance, 53 people were killed in a riot and subsequent anti-Muslim lynching in Junagadh, Gujarat on the 29th, with survivors reportedly claiming that they had been attacked in suspicion of being Pakistani spies.

## Battles in the skies

By the 6th of May, Indian reinforcements were large enough to begin stalling the Pakistani advance in several areas. Pakistani advances south of Kargil were negated and pushed back by Indian counterattacks. From this point onwards, India began focusing more on air attacks to cripple Pakistani forces before sending in ground forces. These attacks greatly weakened Pakistani forces, especially around Kargil. In retaliation against Indian airstrikes, Pakistan began airstriking Indian positions as well, as well as key Indian-controlled towns and cities in Kashmir. On the 11th of June, the city of Barramulla endured aerial attacks by Pakistani Mirage Vs, before being pushed back by Indian Mig-21s and Mig-23s in a battle now referred to in India as the *Battle of Barramulla*, in similar tone to the Battle of London during WW2. Airstrikes by both sides were common, although many have noted the key Indian advantage in terms of both quantity and quality.

Both sides received considerable material support from both of their respective allies in the USSR for India, and China and the US for Pakistan. Indian airstrikes against Muzaffarabad Airport in July resulted in a costly victory for India, although with the successful destruction of many Pakistani planes and infrastructure. However, furor in India erupted following the discovery that out of 2 C-130 Hercules aircraft destroyed during the attack, one was a plane operated by the USAF. Media reports in the United States soon confirmed that multiple US servicemen had been killed as well. This sparked large protests against the United States, as well as reports of Indian students cancelling their visas to the US. In a similar fashion, Pakistan's attack on Barramulla earlier in June was soon discovered following media leaks in October to have destroyed a Soviet An-32, although backlash against the USSR by Pakistan was far more limited due to many Pakistani civilians already harbouring a dislike of the Soviet Union. The USSR continued to give material aid to India, in response to US support to Pakistan.

## Pakistan's new campaign

Little progress was made by Pakistan for several months following the Battle of Barramulla, with Pakistani troops now struggling to hold against a steady stream of Indian soldiers. By the end of September, Kargil was on the verge of recapture by India, with Pakistan's stand in the war becoming increasingly unsustainable. Pakistan was increasingly reliant on US support, which saw a large surge after the September 11 attacks. Similarly, the Soviet Union began supporting India with far more zest following the Moscow Attack. On the 9th of October 2001, Pakistan launched a large attack on Barramulla and Kupwara Districts, with estimated troop numbers hovering around 30,000. Indian forces were unable to hold the tide initially but were soon able to regain their footing, preventing Pakistan from reaching Sopore or Barramulla. Kashmiris in both cities as well as other parts of Kashmir began increasing their resistance against India, with a large surge of militant activity soon initiating.

While Pakistan had long supported militant groups in Kashmir, it began actively and directly training separatist forces in Kashmir. This resulted in greater numbers of Indian counter-militant operations in Kashmir alongside its own war against Pakistan, resulting in occasional civilian deaths, which often further inflamed issues between India and local Kashmiris. Many Western but mainly US news outlets portrayed Indian forces as bloodthirsty and menacing. In response, more Indian news outlets began projecting the United States as an imperialist power supporting a terrorist state.

## Civilian suffering

Allegations of warcrimes filled newspapers worldwide, especially following the Pakistani counterattack to the north-west. Allegations of pillaging and mass-murder were reported by refugees, stating that some Pakistani forces had taken it upon themselves to organise militant groups in occupied areas to round up and massacre non-Muslims and purported supporters of India, while Pakistani officials claimed that these massacres were done purely by mobs with no connection to the Pakistani government. Multiple Indian forces have reported Pakistani forces executing or torturing their forces, while similar allegations have been leveled by Pakistan against India.

Indian forces were also criticised in particular for mass rapes and massacres in various villages and towns, with a BBC report claiming that Indian forces had rounded up 312 people from a village accused of welcoming Pakistani forces and massacring everybody there. India was already facing a great deal of criticism for their heavy-handed response to rising extremism in Kashmir pre-war, including major allegations of massacring protestors, mass-rapes, and extreme powers being granted to Indian officers through the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, which was applied to Jammu and Kashmir in 1990. Many refugees have fleed to Pakistan from areas recaptured by India or on the verge of it, giving reports of horrendous crimes being committed by Indian soldiers in the area.

As a whole, information is extremely hard to gain from the Kashmir region due to an unwillingness from both Indian and Pakistani forces to allow journalists into occupied areas, except for state-approved reporters. Attempts by journalists and reporters to gain access into the region and report in secret have been attempted, until reports that multiple Al Jazeera journalists had been killed in late-October due to unknown reasons.

Many observers have also noted the polarised and incredibly divergent reporting of the war depending on the source. Newspapers and stations in Western Europe and the US placed greater emphasis on Indian warcrimes, while the press in the Eastern Bloc have placed greater emphasis on Pakistan's role in starting the conflict.

## China enters the conflict

Chinese support for Pakistan had been limited to material and financial support as well as diplomatic backing until November of 2001. China entered the war first by overpowering Indian posts in eastern Ladakh, with China hoping to advance west and distract Indian forces combating Pakistan. While China managed to tie up Indian forces in the east, Chinese forces were not as prepared for the terrain or general warfare as India or their Pakistani counterparts, resulting in Chinese forces suffering higher casualty rates than either of them. Chinese forces were larger in number than the Indian forces dedicated to fighting them, yet generally suffered more deaths even in victory. For instance, the Chinese capture of the village of Tegar resulted in 432 deaths against 109 Indian deaths. Despite this, Chinas entry into the war was still incredibly concerning for India, with it now dealing with 2 active fronts in north-west Kashmir and Ladakh, and 1 dormant and largely forgotten front near Kargil.

## Ceasefire

On the 5th of December, Pakistani nationalists protested what they deemed a lacklustre Pakistani campaign by surrounding a military facility in Multan that coincidentally housed nuclear weapons maintenance facilities. After several hours of protesting, a group of protestors managed to overpower soldiers guarding the facility, nearly breaking into the main compound before being gunned down by panicked Pakistani soldiers. While it was virtually impossible that there was any chance of the protestors beginning a nuclear war, the effects of this incident sent shockwaves globally, with the idea that the war was merely an inch away from devolving into an outright nuclear conflict causing both the USSR and US to begin stalling aid to both India and China and Pakistan respectively, while attempting to bring the three to a ceasefire at the very least. Concerned policymakers on both sides agreed to a ceasefire on the 28th of December. Civilians in both India and Pakistan still hound for blood and refuse to accept any form of defeat, meaning that a continuation of the war is inevitable.