National Primary for Prime Minister, 2036

The **National Primary for Prime Minister of New Zealand** was held over May and June 2036, to nominate National's candidate for 2036 Election for Prime Minister of New Zealand. Over 375,000 votes were cast, making it the largest primary turnout in history.

Governor of Auckland Stephanie Kennedy won the nomination against Senator Phil Wilkerson, Congressman Mathew Auberon, Congresman Toby Henry, Senator Tiffany Walters and Senator Roland Keller.

## Primary Structure

Each district in the country was allocated 5 pledged delegates. This was an increase from the 4 delegates per district used in previous primaries after the small field in the 2032 primary saw Harrison McGrath win the popular vote by over 15% despite barely winning the delegate vote. Therefore at the 2033 National Conference the party adopted a resolution to have 5 delegates per district so if only two candidates contested the nomination, the winner of each district would receive an advantage in the delegate count. At the same conference the party also passed a resolution allowing candidates to be nominated by multiple district Committees. This resolution was unused in the 2036 Primary.

## Early Favourites

Governor of Tauranga Ed Palmer was seen as the early favourite for the nomination going into 2036 due to his high approval ratings and experience leading the growing region of Tauranga. However on January 13, 2036 Palmer announced that he would not run for the nomination.

Through the remainder of January attention focused on Senator's Ed Price and Phil Wilkerson who were both reportedly considering a bid. Others potential candidates were Stephanie Kennedy, Tiffany Walters, Roland Keller, Aidan Poole, Amelia Casey and Anna Harrison.

## Late-January: First Entrants

On January 27, 2036 Congressman Mathew Auberon announced he intended to run for Prime Minister.

Despite not registering in early polling or in discussions of potential candidates, Auberon began a nationwide tour that gained extensive media attention and built his support. His early work focused particularly on Christchurch and Selwyn where it quickly became apparent he had remarkably strong support.

On February 3, 2036 Senator Phil Wilkerson announced his campaign for Prime Minister in Kerikeri, receiving the endorsement of fellow Northland Senator Vanessa Robertson and Representatives Millie Peterson, Sam Gillespie and Amy Olson at the event. Wilkeron's announcement speech was broadcast live on television and he was quickly proclaimed the races front-runner.

> *"As early polling shows this race is Phil Wilkerson's to lose. A meticulously built career that has spanned decades alongside an unwaveringly moderate and pragmatic record crafted for electability, Wilkerson has been preparing for this for many years. He is undoubtly the candidate to beat and his emphatic announcement showed off all his best qualities. Other potential candidates may now begin to doubt the value of jumping into the Primary." - NZ Herald Editorial, February 4th, 2036*
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Wilkerson quickly established a lead in polling with Auberon narrowly losing to Ed Price who was still considering entering the race.

 Ed Price
 Mathew Auberon
 Other Candidates
 Undecided

## Early-February: Announcements

On February 11, 2036 Governor of Auckland Stephanie Kennedy announced that she would not run for re-election as Governor of Auckland and instead run for Prime Minister at a rally at the Auckland Museum. In Tamaki's 2nd Congressional District, which she had formerly represented in the House of Representatives, Kennedy highlighted climate change, small business and community as key policy areas.

On February 12, 2036 Senator Marissa Sikes announced she would run for Prime Minister.

On February 17, 2036 Congressman Toby Henry announced he was running for Prime Minister at an event in his Southland district. On the same day Senator Roland Keller announced his intention to run for Prime Minster

On February 18, 2036 Tiffany Walter released a Facebook video announcing she was running for Prime Minister.

On February 20, 2036, Police Commissioner Maria Jacobs announced the policy had opened an investigation into six Congressional representatives from Waikato including Senator Ed Price for alleged campaign finance fraud. High Court Judge Karl Zimmerman was appointed to investigate the allegations. On February 22, 2036, Senator Price indicated he would not be seeking the National nomination for Prime Minster. The Zimmerman Inquiry will release it's report on February 2, 2037.

## Late-February: Diverging Strategies

Stephanie Kennedy campaigned in Wellington, Palmerston North and Dunedin in an attempt to expand support beyond her base in Auckland where she held a confortable lead. The campagin stops were broadly well received except a gaffe on February 21st at a press conference in Palmerston North where she called Congressman William Douglas who was running for Senate "William Davids." After the gaffe Kennedy apologied and suggested the error was momentary confusion.

Phil Wilkerson held 7 policy roundtables focusing on healthcare, agriculture and technology in Opotiki, Masterton, Walkworth, Huntly, Otaki, Wanaka and Kaiapoi. The roundtables gained little media attention.

Marissa Sikes completed a 14-day bus tour from Auckland to Wellington with over 25 campaign stops.

Tiffany Walters held a series of public meet and greets around Auckland and Christchurch.

Toby Henry launched the campaign's first major TV advertising intiative focusing on agricultural support. He also formed a rural voters conference to inform a rural policy platform.

Mathew Auberon ran 4 town halls in Sydenham, Rangiora, Whangarei East and Coromandel.

Rolland Keller spoke at several community events in his Senate seat of Tamaki and appeared as a guest on several media panels.

Polling showed Phil Wilkerson with a narrow lead over Mathew Auberon before a large gap back to Marissa Sikes in third place closely followed by Stephanie Kennedy and Tiffany Walters. Toby Henry and Roland Keller both failed to reach 2% in polls through February.

 Phil Wilkerson
 Mathew Auberon
 Marissa Sikes
 Stephanie Kennedy
 Tiffany Walters
 Toby Henry
 Roland Keller
 Other Candidates
 Undecided

## Early March: Walters Scandal and Policy Announcements

On March 3rd 2036, a voice message from the campaign office of North Shore Senator Tiffany Walter was leaked. The voice message contained audio of Walters criticising two of her staff for taking unreasonable leave.

It was subsequently established one staff member was taking maternity leave while the other was recovering from a shoulder operation. Walters immediately apologied for the criticism, however pledged to remain in the Prime Ministerial Primary.

Due to the scandal, her polling numbers dropped dramatically from 13% in a poll released on March 1st to 2% in a March 9th poll. Mathew Auberon, Marissa Sikes, Toby Henry and Roland Keller all condemned the comments. Both Phil Wilkerson and Stephanie Kennedy went further and called on Walters to suspend her campaign for National's nomination for Prime Minister. Both candidates receieved an increase of support during subsequent polling.

On March 7th, Stephanie Kennedy announced the majority of her policy platform.

The platform focused on an increase in targeted benefits and a reduction in support for structurally unemployed to fund new climate change prevention measures. The policy was well received by many in the party although some critizied the reduction in benefits for the structurally unemployed as being untenable in a general election.

> *"Stephanie Kennedy continues to exceed expectations with a strong policy platform that demonstrates her fiscally conservative roots while embracing her socially progressive tendancies. The announcement also makes her the first candidate to establish a clear climate change policy, an area that has long been a weakness for National candidates." - Stuff, March 8th, 2036*
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On March 10th, Mathew Auberon annoucned his first round of policy. The announcement included an infrastrucuture package focusing on Christchurch as well as capital gains and income tax cuts funded by tightening beneficiary thresholds. The policy was criticised as being to focused on Christchurch particularly after financial analysis by Newsroom showed that Auberon's infrastruture package allowed little money for any additional projects.

> *"Mathew Auberon's numbers add up too well. After telling voters in a Q&A session in Auckland on Wednesday night that he hadn't yet released what infrastructure projects he would prioritise in Auckland his campaign was forced to defend it's policy announcement from Monday that showed his total infrastructure investment budget would be just $21.8 million greater than the expected cost of infrastructure upgrades in the South Island and Wellington. Either the numbers are wrong or Auberon is planning to win elections while committing just pocket change to the countries largest city." - Newsroom, March 14th, 2036*
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Phil Wilkerson began a series of policy announcements