Episode 1044: How Many Kemps to a Kiermaier?

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan drop the no-Reds rule to banter about Michael Lorenzen and Joey Votto, then answer listener emails about a player who’s always in the rain, stats on baseball broadcasts, a curious scoreboard fun fact, the wave, early closer meltdowns, two framing hypotheticals, how many Kemps equals a Kiermaier, an extended draft drought, a Seinfeld trade proposal, and more.*

## Topics

* Updating stat lines on broadcasts
* Strange scoreboard fun facts
* A player who is always in the rain
* Extended prospect droughts
* Closer meltdowns
* The Wave during games
* Computer umpires and pitch framing
* Pitch framing and mobile catchers
* Matt Kemp and Kevin Kiermaier's defensive value
* Baseball trades from *Seinfeld*

## Banter

* Usage of Michael Lorenzen in the third inning and No Reds Talk
* Joey Votto's high swing rate and long-term plan

## Email Questions

* Charlie: "How long into the season should they wait to make the switch to this year's stats? When does this year's slash line better represent the player's true talent compared to last years?"
* Lindell: [Sent a picture of the scoreboard at a White Sox game that says], "Matt Davidson owns the highest average (.750) in White Sox history of any player with at least four at-bats."
* Joe: "You are chaotic-evil and have the ability to make it rain on one player (the diameter of the field just in case) just enough to allow the game to carry on every time he plays. Which position would you choose and if possible which player? Alternatively, if this is more appealing, the baseball gods cause it to rain on Mike Trout every time he plays. How much closer to a mortal does this make him?"
* Nick: "Imagine that for some reason MLB has several awful drafts in a row. Drafts consisting of prospects that don't even have AA or AAA potential. How many years of these drafts would it take for MLB to be noticeably different? What would the league look like at that point?"
* Dan: "I put up a poll in the Facebook group about The Wave but I'm curious if either of you have an official position on The Wave."
* Marcus: "Let's say MLB decides that all balls and strikes will be decided by real time computers. How will this change the role of catchers? If a computer could automatically call the balls and strikes then pitch framing would not matter. Would this cause the catcher to become a glorified DH?"
* Sean: "Say you had two catchers, one was an average framer and one was a good framer. The good framer can only position himself directly in the middle of home plate whereas the average framer can position himself wherever he and the pitcher wants. Which catcher is more effective at framing?"
* Jacob: "How many Matt Kemps playing center field would it take to have equal defensive value to Kevin Kiermaier? What about Miguel Cabrera or Jeff Sullivans?"
* Peter: "In the *Seinfeld* episode The Caddy (Season 7, Episode 12) George is excited at the prospect of becoming the Assistant GM of the Yankees. In one bit of unbridled enthusiasm he tells Susan, "I think I got it, how about this, how about this, we trade Jim Leyritz and Bernie Williams for Barry Bonds. That way you have Griffey and Bonds in the same outfield, now you got a team." Do you think the Giants take this deal for Bonds?"

## Stat Blast

* Jeff uses the Play Index to examine relief pitchers with the most 'meltdowns', defined as an appearance in which a pitcher lowers the win probability by 6% or more.
* Through seven games Sam Dyson has a WPA of -1.8. He has given up 11 runs in 3 IP. He has three meltdowns this year. This is the worst WPA through seven games.
* There are a few pitchers who have had four meltdowns within a seven game stretch.

## Notes

* In 2016 Red's pitching staff was the first ever to finish with a WAR below zero. So far this season they are 2nd in ERA.
* A question similar to Charlie's was asked in Episode 861.
* When discussing playing in the rain Ben references a question asked of David Aardsma in Episode 940.
* Ben and Jeff figure that Mike Trout's fielding and running performance would be dampened (see what I did there?) but not by a lot. Hitting would not be affected much.
* Jeff thinks it would take 8-10 years before there was a significant drop off in talent if MLB no longer got prospects through the draft. Teams could still acquire players by other means, such as recruiting internationally.
* Jeff finds the Wave silly but understands why it's popular. Ben doesn't mind the Wave, but doesn't participate.
* In Episode 205 Ben and Sam discuss the impact robot umpires would have on pitch framing and catcher value.
* Jeff takes the average framer who can set up anywhere, since league-average framing is still very good. They consider worse and worse catchers until Jeff finally picks the good framer.
* Jeff figures two Matt Kemps is enough to match one Kevin Kiermaier, but notes that a factor of two is still amazing.
* Jeff takes two and a half Miguel Cabreras, assuming the half-Cabrera doesn't freak people out.
* Jeff isn't sure he can even catch a routine fly ball, so an infinite number of Jeff Sullivans would not be enough. If he had an entire off-season to learn, then he estimates three or possibly four.
* Ben thinks there would need to be four of him in order to equal Kevin Kiermaier's defensive value.
* Jeff admits that he has run into things while jogging, so the Jeff Sullivans may end up colliding. The Ben Lindbergs would collide a lot because Ben has a quiet voice so they wouldn't hear each other. They would need to keep spare Bens on the bench when one gets injured.
* Jeff notes that Jim Leyritz would not be a factor in the hypothetical trade, and Bernie Williams is no match for Barry Bonds. The trade would never happen. Maybe if the Yankees threw in Mariano Rivera, who had just completed his rookie season.
* Jeff wonders on a team with Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds, and Derek Jeter, which player would influence the other two. Would Bonds corrupt them all?

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1044: How Many Kemps to a Kiermaier?