2021 Power Rankings-Week 11

## Introduction

Ten weeks in to the season and there's no telling how the final standings are going to end up. It seems like two teams may be pulling away from the pack, but they play each other this week. Then the seven teams below them are in a compressed cluster-fuck of wins and losses heading to the final quarter of the season. Even though there are still four weeks remaining, we're close to clinching and elimination scenarios for a few teams already. Let's get ready for the best part of the year: the playoffs push! Sorry Pat.

## Matchup Recap

* The Stupid Idiots hangs on to first place by sweeping the season series with The Shotti Bunch (4-4). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Duck Punchers keeps pace with Stupid Idiots with an uninspired win over low-scoring Multiverse of Mattness (11-7). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Ma ma momma said keeps their bye hopes alive with a win over Sweet Dee (9-6). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Papa's Posse keeps their hot streak alive and climbs into a playoff position by taking care of business vs. RIPDab (9-10). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Paddock 9 avoid a 2021 double-header sweep by pulling yet another upset, this time over rival Pain Train (7-11). **Next Matchup: N/A**

## Stat Chat

* The Duck Punchers notches an incredible 10th season of 7 or more wins. No other team has more than 7 such seasons.
* Duck Punchers wins a record 17th double-header with their win over Commish.
* Papa's Posse becomes the 8th team to reach 70 combined wins. This marks the most games ever played before a 70th win (161). Sweet Dee will likely break that mark in 2024.
* The Stupid Idiot ties their longest single-season win streak in franchise history (3).
* Paddock 9 moves into fourth place on the all-time single season roster moves list. He now has the five of the top seven most single-season roster moves, including the top four.
* Sweet Dee remains tied for fifth fewest single-season roster moves (4).
* The Stupid Idiots extends its franchise record streak of consecutive games over 200 to 8 games, tying Duck Punchers for 7th longest streak of all-time.
* Paddock 9 has now spent 26 weeks in last place, leading the rest of the league by half a season (Papa's Posse is 2nd most with 19 weeks).
* Paddock 9 and Commish are the first two teams to complete 10 trades in LOC history.
* The winner of Duck vs. Commish failed to break 200 for the first time in their matchup history (18 matchups).
* Ma ma momma said ties Duck Punchers for most blowout of the week wins (19).

## Absolute Standings

I'm not going to lie, I'm pretty fucking impressed with Papa. He has a 7-3 absolute record, which means 70% of the time he is scoring in the top half of the league. He started 1-4 and have now followed that up with a 4-1 record, turning his entire season around. Kudos to Papa man, that's just great stuff.

## Playoffs??

Mathematically, all ten teams are still alive for the playoffs. Yes, including Pat (though not for long). A seven-win team had never missed the playoffs until last season, when Momma's 7-6 record was only good enough for 7th place. This year, not only do we have seven teams already at 5 wins (just like week 11 last season), but we have that 14th game. It's starting to look like 7 isn't the auto-in that it used to be, though 8 still seems like a safe number. Only time will tell!

### Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. These take into account scoring differentials deemed to be significant.

As you will see below, Paddock 9 is still alive for the 5th and 6th seeds, but he cannot win any other seed. This is because 5-5 Shotti plays 5-5 RIPDab in week 14, meaning one of them will get to 6 wins. The other two 5-5 teams, Papa and Commish, face off in week 12. So at least four teams are guaranteed 6 or more wins, and Paddock 9 cannot win a points tiebreaker with any of them. However, there is a scenario in which Paddock 9 wins out, finishing 6-8, and the losing teams in those two matchups mentioned above LOSE OUT. If that were to happen, and provided that Sweet Dee and Pain Train go 0-4 or 1-3, Paddock 9 could actually still finish as the 5th seed.

You also see that Pain Train does not control their own destiny, yet Sweet Dee does. This is because while Pain Train does have games remaining against 5-5 teams, the points tie-breaker is too close to call. A tie could leave him on the outside looking in. However, Sweet Dee plays RIP, Shotti, and Commish in consecutive weeks. If she wins all three, plus beats Paddock 9, she will have successfully leap-frogged into a playoff spot due to the other scheduled matchups around the league in the coming month.

Both scenarios for the 9th and 10th place teams are a stretch, but it's not impossible.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

### Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Ten Scenarios

* **Paddock 9** is eliminated with:
	+ **Loss** and wins by two of these three teams: Mattness, Shotti, RIPDab

## Trade Tracker

A lot of these trades have gotten so lost in the sauce that it's not worth tracking anymore. We'll keep this Hopkins/Kirk trade, the Goedert/McKissic trade, and add the Rodgers/Mooney trade next week.

Starts (Paddock 9):

* Kirk: 2
* Reagor: 0

Starts (RIPDab)

* Hopkins: 4
* Williams: 1

The fact that RIPDab has only won one more game than Paddock 9 since this trade is slightly insane.

Starts (ma ma momma said):

* Dallas Goedert: 3

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* J.D. McKissic: 3

Was this the perfect bench player trade? Each has filled in three times and scored right around their projection, on average.

Starts (Papa's Posse):

* Darrell Mooney: 0
* Zach Ertz: 0

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* Aaron Rodgers: 0
* Noah Fant: 0

Obviously I'm not looking at this trade objectively, but I think this inaugural trade between Commish and Papa was fair and beneficial to both teams. With Jerry Jeudy already a starting member of Papa's Posse, it made sense to offload Fant for a similar-caliber TE on another team. And Ertz, a Papa's posse HOF-nominee, was a perfect late season fit. Meanwhile, Rodgers was never getting a start on Papa's Posse. He was a "break glass in case of emergency" bench stash that is better served on Mattness, who has had the worst QB play of any team maybe in LOC history. Mooney is a wait and see as the Bears volatile offense returns from the bye. We'll see how things play out next week...

## Power Rankings - Week Eleven

### 1(1). Ma ma momma said

Momma came back with a vengeance, with his main guys Diggs and Swift leading the way. The most remarkable part of Momma's season has been their depth. Losing Henry may have cost them some bite, but this team clearly can still pile up the points and should be considered a serious threat come December.

### 2(2). The Stupid Idiots

It doesn't matter that they are 2nd in the league in points. It doesn't matter that they are getting Chubb back. It doesn't matter that the Chiefs offense seems to be finding its swagger again. All that matters is that since their creation in 2012, they have never beaten their week 11 opponent. Not once. Their final test before getting taken seriously as a Glory Bowl contender is to break through to that elusive 8th win, and in doing so vanquish the Duck Puncher demons.

### 3(3). Duck Punchers

Duck Punchers tried so damn hard to lose their game against Multiverse of Mattness that it's hard to believe they actually scored 50 points MORE than they did the week before. It's a bad sign they couldn't break 180 but a good sign that they are trending back UP instead of DOWN. Nick Folk had an impressive night against the Falcons, putting them in the driver's seat heading into the matchup of the season.

### 4(6). The Shotti Bunch

Strong showing in a loss and games remain against 9th and 10th place teams, so they are set up to make the playoffs yet again. The question is if they will be able to get healthy in time to make an impact.

### 6(5). Pain Train

Season on the line this week against Multiverse of Mattness after two straight games below 170. They're either due for a big one or they are a team that cannot get over the hump. We'll find out soon enough.

### 7(7). The Multiverse of Mattness

Three straight weeks with a QB scoring between 12 and 13 points and that trend lead to one last trade for Aaron Rodgers. Of course, Rodgers has a toe injury and is fatigued from having COVID, so who knows if this is actually a solution to the problem or just another setback.

### 8(8). Papa's Posse

Been playing great of late and they control their own destiny, but Papa always tends to flounder after a month of solid game play. Losing out on the waiver bid for Miami D, as well as getting spanked by the defense they dropped (NE) on Thursday night, plus losing Patterson for the week, all spells a disappointing weekend for Papa.

### 10(10). Paddock 9

P9 turning into one of the best spoiler teams ever, competing every week despite selling every single good player they don't plan to keep.

## Matchup of the Week - Clash of the Titans

At the bottom, Pain Train vs. Commish duke it out for the 6th seed. But at the top. Stupid Idiots and Duck Punchers are fighting for first place outright. It is the most combined wins ever in a matchup between these two teams.

Updated through 10/24/21