2024 Indiana gubernatorial election (Blackford)

The **2024 Indiana gubernatorial election** was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana. The election was held concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election in Indiana, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, United States Senate and state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Eric Holcomb was term-limited, and could not seek a third consecutive term in office. The Republican nominee, United States Senator Mike Braun, defeated the Democratic nominee, former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick by a razor-thin margin of just over 4,000 votes in what was the closest gubernatorial election in the state's modern history. This was the sixth consecutive Republican victory for this seat, continuing a streak dating back to 2004.

The election was the closest state-level election of the 2024 election cycle, and was the subject of significant controversy, with the office of Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales being accused of abusing its power to provide a more favorable outcome for Braun, leading the Indiana Democratic Party to launch a lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the election results and leading McCormick to refuse to concede the race until mid December. The election coincided with Ron DeSantis' landslide victory in Indiana in the concurrent presidential election with 57% of the popular vote, though it did also see the Democrats gain several seats in both chambers of the Indiana General Assembly and saw the Democrats win the concurrent attorney general election.

## Republican primary

### Candidates

* Mike Braun, United States Senator (2019-2025), state representative from the 63rd district (2014-2017)
* Suzanne Crouch, 52nd Lieutenant Governor of Indiana (2017-2025), 56th Indiana State Auditor (2014-2017)

#### Removed from ballot

* Eric Doden, former president of the Indiana Economic Development Corporation

#### Declined

* Todd Rokita, Indiana Attorney General (2021-2025) (*running for re-election, later chosen as nominee for lieutenant governor) (endorsed Mike Braun)*
* Diego Morales, Indiana Secretary of State (2023-2031) *(endorsed Mike Braun)*
* Trey Hollingsworth, former U.S. Representative from Indiana's 9th congressional district (2017-2023) *(refused to make endorsement)*
* Mitch Daniels, former governor (2005-2013) and president of Purdue University (2013-2023) *(refused to make endorsement)*

### Summary

The Republican gubernatorial primary in 2024 was a two-sided affair between United States Senator Mike Braun and Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch. Though Crouch was a vital political ally of the reasonably popular outgoing governor Eric Holcomb, she was expected to suffer the same downfalls that Holcomb himself faced in his ill-fated 2016 Senate campaign, most notably a lack of name recognition. Prior to being appointed lieutenant governor by Holcomb in 2017, Crouch had served as Indiana's state auditor from 2014 to 2017, and as a state representative representing parts of Evansville from 2005 to 2014. In addition, Crouch, similar to Holcomb, generally steered away from making comments on national politics and the national state of the Republican Party. On the contrary was Mike Braun, who was a devoted supporter and close ally of former President Donald Trump, who still remained very popular amongst the Hoosier electorate.

Braun ran his campaign claiming to be a "lifelong Republican voter," leading many critics and political analysts to point out that he had only joined the Republican Party in the late 2010s, and was a prominent member of the Democratic Party in local politics prior to the mid 2010s. Crouch, who had served in numerous levels of government as a Republican for over 20 years, would attempt to use this against Braun. Though Crouch was initially seen as the underdog in the primary and was given "virtually no chance" of winning the primary, her campaign was unexpectedly bolstered when Holcomb endorsed her, despite having previously refused to comment on the 2024 gubernatorial election. By early April, Crouch's opinion polling had improved from roughly 20 to 25% on average to over 45%, leading many pundits to consider the Republican primary in the state to be a toss-up.

Trump endorsed Braun in mid April, followed by Ron DeSantis making a similar endorsement a week later. After a debate which Crouch was widely considered to have botched, Braun's position in opinion polling once again improved, with Braun leading Crouch 70% to 30% in opinion polling by early May, and Braun would end up easily defeating Crouch 69-30% in the primary election. Braun's victory in the Republican primary was considered a major defeat for the so-called "Daniels Republicans", a faction of center-right Republicans who held a significant amount of power in Indiana politics during the early to mid 21st century, taking their name after Mitch Daniels, who served as the state's governor from 2005 to 2013.

## Democratic primary

### Candidates

* Jennifer McCormick, former Republican Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (2017-21)

### Results

Jennifer McCormick ran unopposed.

**Democratic primary results**

## General election

### Predictions

Though the race was initially expected to heavily favor Braun, with a popular outgoing Republican governor and Braun having a major lead in early opinion polls, the race gradually evolved to become viewed as a toss-up by most political analysts as McCormick began an aggressive campaign against Braun and Braun's lead gradually dwindled and eventually diminished altogether in opinion polling.

### Results and analysis

Results by State House district:
     Braun—40-50%
     Braun—50-60%
     Braun—60-70%
     Braun—70-80%
     McCormick—40-50%
     McCormick—50-60%
     McCormick—60-70%
     McCormick—70-80%
     McCormick—80-90%
     McCormick—>90%Results by State Senate district:
     Braun—40-50%
     Braun—50-60%
     Braun—60-70%
     McCormick—40-50%
     McCormick—50-60%
     McCormick—60-70%
     McCormick—70-80%
     McCormick—80-90%The election was extremely close, with Braun only defeating McCormick by 4,034 votes (0.14%), making it one of the closest gubernatorial elections in United States history. This was despite opinion polling having McCormick leading Braun by several points up to Election Day, and most political analysts expecting McCormick to be able to narrowly edge out a victory over Braun, even in otherwise heavily Republican Indiana. Braun's strongest base of support came from the south of the state, which had historically supported populist ideologies, leading to the region rapidly transitioning from a Democratic-leaning region to a Republican stronghold in the early to mid 2000s. McCormick's strongest base of support came from urban and suburban areas, most notably "Hoosier Chicagoland" and by extension South Bend, Indianapolis and its northern suburbs in Hamilton and Boone Counties, Bloomington, Lafayette, the Louisville metropolitan area and areas around Terre Haute and Muncie. 16 of Indiana's 92 counties supported McCormick in the general election, including the state's 5 most populous counties. In comparison, only 5 Indiana counties backed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

McCormick's victory in Hamilton and Boone Counties was especially significant, as both counties had until very recently heavily favored the Republican Party, with Hamilton County frequently supporting the Republicans by 70% to as much as over 80% in presidential races for well over a century, however in the late 2010s and early 2020s began to see a significant political shift towards the Democratic Party as the southern edge of both counties saw rapid population growth. McCormick's victory in both counties was considered to have confirmed this political shift in these counties, and Hamilton County would vote Democratic for the first time in a presidential race since 1912 in the 2028 election cycle, confirming its transformation into a Democratic-favored swing county, though Boone County would continue to be a Republican-favored county for a considerable length of time after this point.

### Legal disputes

The close nature of the election led to confusion on Election Day, with McCormick gaining a lead of nearly 12,000 votes over Braun early on. Though her lead had dwindled to 5,000 votes by the time that over 90% of precincts were reporting, this was still enough for many news organizations to call the race for McCormick early on November 6. McCormick would claim victory at 3:36 am EST on November 6, though Braun would refuse to concede until all the votes were counted. As further precincts reported on the 6th, McCormick's lead would gradually dwindle and eventually diminish altogether, with Braun developing a 4,000 vote lead over McCormick by the end of the day. Though several Democratic-leaning precincts had yet to report, Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales declared Braun the winner of the election shortly before 4 pm EST on November 6, and ordered that the votes stop being counted.

McCormick protested the decision, and threatened to sue the Secretary of State's office, with her campaign estimating that anywhere between 5,000 and 9,000 votes had been left uncounted by Morales' office, more than enough to flip the election in her favor. Braun claimed victory at 6:02 pm EST on November 6, while McCormick announced that she would not concede the race and did not rescind her victory claim. The Indiana Democratic Party formally opened a lawsuit against Diego Morales and the Indiana Electoral Commission on November 9, accusing Morales of "obstructing democratic procedure in order to provide a more favorable outcome for the Republicans". The Indiana Supreme Court would dismiss the case on November 29, allowing Morales' reported results to stand. McCormick would continue to maintain that she had won the election for several more days, however did concede the race to Braun on December 13. Braun was sworn in as Indiana's 52nd governor on January 12, 2025, and his swearing in was accompanied by small protests against his governorship.