Full Evidence List

## **Evidence List**

Despite claims from scientists close to the Calment case and researchers from Arles that there exists no strong evidence for an ID switch, there are several damning pieces of evidence that cannot be innocently explained away in a non-switch scenario. When confronted with these facts, those who favor the "nonswitch" scenario are unable to offer a plausible explanation. Specifically, key points of evidence from the timespan of 1926-1934 are often downplayed or even ignored in the nonswitch scenario, and instead the nonswitch argument attempts to obfuscate with defeasible arguments like "arguments from authority" and "arguments from incredulity". Another crucial mistake that the nonswitch argument makes is its overreliance on a single species of evidence when multiple species exist. The nonswitch scenario also blinds itself to the phenomen of replication of errors. The official "rebuttal" paper commits all these mistakes and more, yet aims to revalidate Calment's record. It seems the ultimate goal of the pro-Calment publications is not to settle an epistemic truth, but rather to alienate the public from the true argumentation of the ID switch scenario and sway readers with only superficially convincing arguments.

In the name of brevity and clarity, the strongest points of evidence in favor of the ID switch hypothesis are presented here in a concise format. These points aren't necessarily meant to be considered separately, but rather taken together collectively. The points are organized in a way that is meant to make the most logical sense, each point following logically from the last.

* ***The stastiscal improbability of an individual reaching 122.5 years old***

Outside observers intuitively overexistimate the probability of the occurence of a 122 year lifespan (or even longer). Frequent news headlines of erroneous claims of extraordinary longevity originating from remote areas of the world skew the public's persception of what is biologically possible. In reality, the statistical likelihood of a person reaching 122 years old is estimated to be at least one in 100 million, with some estimates (including those from Calment's validators) being even smaller. Calment is the only person to ever be recorded to live to such a great length. This itself is not definitive proof that Calment's record is false, but it shows that it is exceedingly unlikely and therefore we must consider even the most unlikely switch scenarios. Accordingly, it is incorrect to dismiss the switch scenario because one intuits that it is "too far-fetched".

* ***Robert Billot does not recognize Jeanne Calment from the 1920s***

Robert Billot (born 1931), nephew of Joseph Billot, when asked about the photo of Jeanne Calment from the 1920s, said that he was sure that the woman in the photo is not the woman he's known since the 1930s. He appears alongside Madame Calment in several photographs beginning in 1937. He was close in age with Frédéric Billot, son of Yvonne, and the two boys were known to be close. They appear together in many photographs. Robert Billot certainly knew Madame Calment very well, having been around her and spoken with her many times over many years, including in the 1930s, 40s, and 50s. Having been born in 1931, he would no memory of Jeanne Calment if she died in 1934. It is damning that a family member as close with Madame Calment as Robert is confident that Jeanne Calment in ~1929 is not the woman he knew. This point is fairly straightforward, yet nonswitch proponents attempt to wiggle out of it by throwing out obfuscating arguments that aim to muddy the water. Robert Billot's comment was communicated by his daughter, Frederique Skyronka, in the official counterinvestigation Facebook. Frederique has no reason to lie about her father's comments, being "anti-switch" herself. Others prefer to obfuscate by claiming that the 1920s photo of Jeanne Calment is not Jeanne Calment, but some unknown woman. This assertion is outright baseless. This photo originated from Madame Calment's own archives when Paris Match visited her at "Maison-du-Lac" in 1988. This is also confirmed in the article itself. During this visit, Paris Match also produced three other photos of Jeanne Calment. This photo is also visually identical to earlier photos of Jeanne Calment. There can be no doubt it is Jeanne Calment in the photo. The only reason antiswitch advocates argue against this photo in particular is that it is inconvenient for their argument.

* ***Maurice Gilbert (doctor in charge of The Belvedere sanatorium) told his children that Jeanne Calment was his patient***

This key piece of evidence presents an extraordinarily tricky predicament for the nonswitch scenario. The nonswitch scenario would crumble if its proponents conceded that Jeanne Calment was a patient at The Belvedere sanatorium in the 1930s. So instead, dishonest attempts to circumvent this are made by claiming that Luc Régis Gilbert, son of Maurice Gilbert, fabricated details surrounding Jeanne Calment's stay at The Belvedere (which he of course has no reason to do). In fact, he wasn't even aware of the switch scenario when he made these comments.

* ***Jeanne Calment lost significant weight in the early 1930s (consistent with pulmonary TB) whereas Yvonne Calment gained weight (completely incongruent with pulmonary TB)***

Any objective observer will agree that between the ~1929 photo and the 1931 photo, Jeanne has curiously thinned quite a bit. She conceivably could have lost upwards of 50 pounds in this timespan. Such drastic weight loss in an older woman is very rare without an underlying health issue.

As it transpires, pulmonary TB (the kind of TB that The Belvedere specialized in treating) is a wasting disease in which its sufferers lose a large amount of body mass. It's been nicknamed "consumption" for this reason. In contrast, between 1929 and 1931, Yvonne has actually gained a bit of weight, which is inconsistent with the type of TB that she was supposedly withering away from at this time. The actual physicality of these women in 1931 is the complete inverse of what we would expect if we take the nonswitch scenario to be fact. The severity of the impact on the anti-switch argument is such that some even argue it is not Jeanne in the 1929 photo. Others go farther and pretend that no weight loss can be appreciated between these two photos.