Historionomy 101

Nation-states all develop following the same pattern, which can be seen as an "emerging phenomenon." This phenomenon appears complex but derives from simple rules.

As soon as a territory is inhabited by a people with a technological foundation robust enough to enable the production and collection of agricultural surpluses, an urbanization and civilization process begins. During this process, elites emerge to control this surplus and seek to establish rules that benefit them within their territory.

The political entities that emerge initially operate on a small scale, primarily for two main reasons:

- Political control is more manageable over shorter distances.

- A common set of rules requires a minimal level of cultural homogeneity among the elites and between the elites and the population. This homogeneity is usually low when urbanization begins.

Given enough time and if the technological foundation allows for control over longer distances, these smaller political entities will gradually consolidate into larger ones. This consolidation is driven by two main mechanisms:

- Conquest, when the elite of a larger polity seeks to take control of the surplus of a smaller one.

- Defense, when a group of polities comes together to form a larger entity as a "confederation" to defend against looters and invaders.

While conquest may appear to be the primary motivation for the growth of a political entity, it is, in fact, relatively uncommon. This is because, to succeed in an invasion, the invader must have a significant advantage over the invaded and must mobilize costly military resources, both to defeat their armies and to maintain occupation by force until complete assimilation.

In reality, defense confederations are a more common means of political growth. This is due to the straightforward fact that voluntary alliances are easier and more cost-effective to maintain over time than military conquest.

Once consolidation begins, it is further fueled by two dynamics:

- A larger political entity can amass a greater economic surplus, enabling it to raise larger armies and conquer more neighbors.

- A larger political entity allows for a unified rule over a larger territory, facilitating labor specialization and generating a larger economic surplus, which in turn leads to the formation of larger armies.

Smaller polities will continue to merge into larger ones over time until they are hindered by two factors:

- There is a cultural limit to the size of confederations. When cultural differences are too significant, solidarity becomes challenging.

- There is a logistical limit to the size of military conquests. When polities cannot exert control through confederation, they must rely on military occupation, which becomes increasingly costly on large territories far from the center of power, while the economic benefits of occupation diminish over distance.

To summarize the situation:

- We have a geographical area capable of economically supporting urbanization.

- Within this area, populations will gradually coalesce into larger political entities, primarily through mechanisms of "confederation" and, to a lesser extent, through military conquest.

- Military conquest will be the less prominent mechanism of consolidation because it requires the existence of substantial power differentials between polities, which only accumulate over extended periods.

The size and location of the "larger political entities" that primarily begin as confederations are mostly determined by:

- Culture: Members of the confederation require a sense of cultural solidarity.

- Geography: Certain geographical factors facilitate the emergence of larger polities.

These geographical factors can be summarized as follows:

- Large and fertile plains produce greater economic surpluses.

- Rivers and coastlines enable efficient transportation, making surplus gathering and labor specialization more manageable.

- Technological advancements can significantly alter territory productivity, communication ease, and warfare efficiency.

The first and second elements imply that large fertile plains and valleys will witness the emergence of larger polities that eventually dominate their neighbors and create substantial nations and empires. This feature can be observed on a map of Europe or the Middle East, where most large plains and valleys served as the cradles of historical nation-states.

Now, let's analyze the mechanism of a confederation in greater detail:

- Such a league of polities will emerge in an area where elites and populations share at least some common cultural values because it's easier to ally with people who share your values, language, and culture.

- A typical confederation will have two main instruments of power:

  - An assembly of the elites of the smaller allied polities, known as "oligarchs."

  - A central authority, an "overlord," initially tasked with military leadership in case of war and ultimate judicial arbitration.

Depending on the culture of the confederates, the central authority might typically be a "priest-king," a Roman "dictator," a Dutch "Stathouder," and so on.

Once a confederation emerges, the natural progression is the gradual growth of the overlord's power, which will lead to a political struggle with the confederation's oligarchs. A common means for the overlord to undermine the oligarchs is to form a political alliance with smaller, emerging elites in the confederation, thanks to the prosperity facilitated by unified rule over a large territory.

It's worth noting that this behavior can be observed at any scale of human societies, down to the tribal level. Since physical coercion cannot effectively work on a personal level beyond the scope of a family, rulers seek willing allies to expand their rule at any societal scale.

A detailed examination of the social dynamics in many polities or nation-states over time reveals that the political dynamics inside a "confederation" typically follow the same steps at a similar pace. We will provide these steps here, illustrated by the example of the history of modern England,

t = 0: A "confederation" is established with an "overlord" as its central authority.

Example : Between 1066 and 1087, William the Bastard, Duke of Normandy, conquers the territory of modern England, establishing a new centralized rule

From t = 0 to t+150 years: The "overlord" gradually consolidates power over the oligarchs. During this period, the country experiences increasing prosperity due to the securement of the territory. New, smaller elites emerge across the country.

Around t+200 years: The overlord begins to create a unified judiciary system that supplants the local authorities of the oligarchs. Smaller elites start organizing themselves, and the overlord often forms alliances with them.

Example : In 1295, King Edward the First established the Model Parliament.

Around t+200 / t+250 years: Thanks to alliances with smaller elites and two centuries of growing authority, the overlord's power reaches its first peak. The overlord, now slowly becoming a "sovereign," applies this newfound power to military expeditions outside the realm.

Example : In 1337, King Edward the Third initiated the Hundred Years' War against France.

Around t+250 / t+300: Foreign military campaigns continue until the realm becomes exhausted and the sovereign weakens. Oligarchs exploit this weakness to incite unrest with the goal of regaining their authority, which escalates into civil wars.

Example : After achieving significant early victories and waging war for over a century, England was eventually expelled from France, leading to the onset of the Wars of the Roses.e Roses.

If the sovereign is strong enough, typically the case for larger polities, it eventually succeeds in reasserting control over the oligarchs.

From t+300 to t+450: The sovereign consolidates its authority over the realm by establishing a centralized administration staffed by the emerging smaller elites, which helps bring the oligarchs under control. Numerous oligarchic revolts may occur during this period, but they are eventually suppressed.

Example : The Tudor dynasty began to consolidate absolute power in England.

From t+450 to t+600: The sovereign attains absolute power internally. The realm becomes increasingly centralized, both administratively and culturally. The sovereign utilizes this newfound power to wage imperialist wars against neighboring states.

Example : Elizabeth I and the later Stuart sovereigns consolidated absolute power over England and initiated the first English colonial empire.

Around t+600: The sovereign conducts wars until the realm reaches economic exhaustion. Conquests cease, and the absolutist elite gradually loses legitimacy. Cultural unification enables smaller elites to achieve a level of solidarity and organization previously unseen.

At this stage, the polity undergoes a phenomenon known as a "national revolution": the sovereign is disqualified and eliminated during significant civil unrest. The smaller elites organize themselves into a representative body that assumes control of the realm, unleashing energies that were previously suppressed by the late Ancien Régime.

During the unrest, a military dictator manages to seize control of the country, capitalizing on the population's resentment stemming from the defeats of the previous regime during its final years. The dictator mobilizes the newfound resources of the fresh elite and enters a brief phase of large-scale military campaigns against neighboring states, culminating in a final defeat. This defeat paves the way for a more stable regime controlled by the parliament, representing the newly and relatively broadly recruited elite. This parliamentary regime evolves into a full democracy by progressively expanding electoral participation and incorporating new social classes into the civic corps.

Example : The English Civil War began in 1642 and lasted until 1651. After the Parliamentarian forces, led by Oliver Cromwell, emerged victorious, England entered a period of political upheaval. Cromwell established the Commonwealth of England and assumed dictatorial powers as Lord Protector.

Following Cromwell's death in 1658, the political situation remained unstable. Eventually, in 1660, the monarchy was restored, marking the end of the English Commonwealth. Charles II, the son of the executed King Charles I, returned from exile and was welcomed back as the king. However, the monarchy was reestablished as a constitutional monarchy, meaning that the monarch's powers were limited by the authority of the Parliament.

This course represents an "ideal" trajectory where major disruptions do not impede the social evolution of the confederation, or what we now refer to as a nation-state. It cannot progress much faster because it is closely tied to human cognitive constants and the speed at which a society evolves and achieves cultural homogenization on a large scale. However, it can slow down, come to a complete halt, derail, or even restart.

One type of disruption occurs when oligarchs manage to prevail in their struggle against the sovereign. This can happen at any point in the process, but it is more likely to occur when the sovereign is weak, such as at the outset, during civil wars, or during a successful "Fronde" in the early stages of sovereign "absolutization." External invasions or disruptions can also weaken the sovereign to the point where oligarchs regain control.

A sovereign's defeat against its oligarchs results in the establishment of an "oligarchic republic." In this type of regime, the oligarchs implement a system characterized by decentralization among themselves and a multitude of checks and balances on executive powers to prevent the emergence of a new sovereign.

Oligarchic republics can generally endure as a regime for a century or two until a new "sovereign" ultimately emerges, despite all the political mechanisms of the regime. This emergence becomes necessary due to the requirement of a centralized authority to lead the country during wartime. This new centralized authority can return the country either to the initial stage of the entire "nation-state" process or to the "absolutist" post-civil wars phase, depending on the level of cultural evolution in society.

A prominent historical example of an oligarchic republic is the United Provinces of the Netherlands. During the 80 Years' War in the 16th and 17th centuries, the Dutch provinces successfully rebelled against their sovereign, the Habsburg Emperor, leading to the emergence of the Dutch oligarchs who took control of the country and established an oligarchic republic.

Over the years, the position of the Stathouder, who served as the military leader of the Republic, gradually expanded in influence and authority. This growth in power ultimately transformed the Stathouder's position into one of absolute power during the 18th century. However, this concentration of power eventually led to discontent and resistance within the Netherlands.

In 1785, a national revolution occurred in the United Provinces, resulting in massive political changes.

Another special case arises when neither the sovereign nor the oligarchs can tip the balance in their favor. In such situations, since the social mechanism of sovereign vs. oligarchs vs. emerging smaller elites occurs at all social scales, the oligarchs themselves begin to act more like absolutist sovereigns within their own polities, each with their own smaller oligarchs. However, the cultural homogenization of the entire confederacy continues, meaning that all populations in all oligarchic polities develop a common sense of solidarity and shared values. In this case, a rapid unification of the entire confederation can suddenly occur within a few years, in a relatively bloodless manner, typically during the "absolutist" phase of the nation-state, as soon as one of the oligarchic polities gains the power to do so.

A typical example of a situation where political fragmentation gave way to unification occurred in Germany and Italy. Both regions had experienced political fragmentation since the late Middle Ages, with numerous independent states, principalities, and entities. However, in the mid-19th century, they witnessed a rapid process of unification, led by their most prominent political entities.

In the case of Germany, the key figure in the unification process was Prussia. Under the leadership of figures like Otto von Bismarck, Prussia successfully unified the various German states into a single nation-state, known as the German Empire, in 1871. This marked a significant transformation from the previous fragmentation.

Similarly, in Italy, the process of unification was spearheaded by the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia, particularly under the leadership of figures like Count Camillo di Cavour. Through a series of diplomatic and military actions, various Italian states and regions were brought together to form the Kingdom of Italy in 1861.

Another disruption can occur when the nation-state unexpectedly achieves military success during its course. These successes often lead to significant growth, extending beyond its natural cultural boundaries, thereby introducing significant cultural heterogeneity. This sudden heterogeneity can slow down or even completely halt the nation-state's progression because neither the oligarchs nor the emerging smaller elites will feel solidarity with their potential counterparts in the newly annexed regions. This effectively undermines the authority of the sovereign and the efficiency of its rule. In this case, the "confederation" can devolve into a more basic "empire," where a central core exercises dominion over provinces. If the empire persists long enough, cultural homogenization can either continue or restart to the point where the empire eventually reverts to the standard trajectory of a nation-state.

This situation occured for China : the unification of the Northern China Plain by the state of Qin during the late 2nd century BC, was too quick to ensure cultural homogenization of the whole chinese civilization. As a result, the Qin Dynasty and the subsequent Han Dynasty faced challenges in governing such a vast and diverse empire. This led to periods of fragmentation and the rise and fall of various dynasties in Chinese history.

Over time, technological progress played a role in facilitating cultural homogenization and administrative centralization. The encounters with Western countries and the recognition of a shared Chinese identity also contributed to the eventual consolidation of China as a unified nation-state.

Another set of perturbations arises from foreign invasions. These invasions can have significant effects, ranging from slowing down, halting, or even completely restarting the entire nation-state course due to the scale of destruction. A foreign annexation over an extended period can also trigger cultural homogenization with the invader to the extent that the country is culturally absorbed. This process may continue or lead to a renewed unified course with the former invader. If homogenization between the occupant and the occupied is significant but falls below a critical level, a national revolution can coincide with independence. In such cases, the smaller elites of the occupied nation organize themselves into a parliament that rejects foreign rule.

An historical example is Belgium: after centuries of foreign influence from France, the Netherlands, and the Habsburgs, Belgium became part of the Kingdom of Holland in 1815, establishing the equivalent of an absolutist Ancien Régime in the country. In 1830, Belgium revolted against Holland and established an independent constitutional monarchy.

Lastly, another perturbation occurs in territories located on a "military frontier" between two large nation-states. The equilibrium between these competing states can lead to the independence of disputed territories through a form of "neutralization." In this scenario, cultural homogenization still occurs, as the populations of the territory share a common rule and increasingly common values. However, a strong sovereign cannot emerge due to the massive influence of neighboring states. This situation closely resembles that of an "oligarchic republic," with the distinction that no occurrence of centralized power is permitted until the neighboring states themselves reach a social state where they allow their smaller neighbors to have autonomous political lives. These small countries can then rapidly progress to the absolutist phase and the national revolution phase.

An historical example is Switzerland: after the defeat of the cantons at Marignano in 1515 and civil unrest during the Reformation, Switzerland slowly became a neutralized country, situated between the influences of France and the Habsburgs. Once France established itself as a constitutional monarchy after 1815, internal tensions abruptly coalesced in Switzerland, leading to the Sonderbund War of 1847, a civil war from which Switzerland emerged as a stabilized modern constitutional confederation.

A variety of perturbations can affect the natural course of events within a single "confederation" or "nation-state." Here, we'll explore the dynamics that occur when multiple nation-states interact.

As previously explained, civilization begins on any territory suitable for urbanization, given a specific technological corpus. Throughout the remainder of this discussion, we will use the terms "mereupory" or "mereuporic civilization" to refer to such a civilizational area. The size of the nation-states that emerge within the civilization's area depends on geographical and technological factors. These nation-states will eventually compete and engage in wars against one another.

Certain geographical features can significantly influence the course of a particular nation-state:

- \*\*Large and fertile plains:\*\* These regions produce more economic surplus, allowing for the emergence of larger nation-states that can dominate their neighbors and create large nations and empires. This feature is commonly observed in historical maps of Europe and the Middle East, where most large plains and valleys serve as the cradles of historical nation-states.

- \*\*Rivers and coasts:\*\* These geographical features facilitate efficient transportation, making it easier to gather surplus and specialize in labor. They also aid in the transportation of goods, enabling trade and economic development.

- \*\*Technological progress:\*\* Technological advancements can significantly affect the productivity of territories, ease of communication, and military efficiency. Technological changes can reshape the course of nation-states.

It's important to note that while these geographical factors influence the trajectory of nation-states, the dynamics within each nation-state also play a crucial role in determining its development. The interplay between internal and external factors can result in diverse outcomes for different nation-states.

Border states

The geographical boundary of the mereuporic civilization is generally determined for a specific climate and technical corpus. Furthermore, the nation-states located on the geographical border of the mereuporic civilization are usually the most subject to the pressure of "barbarians," meaning non-urbanized populations (because they are not urbanizable geographically and technologically). However, the evolution of a nation-state generally triggers technical and socio-military progress, with the latter being particularly significant during the transition to imperial absolutism. Bordering nations that reach an absolutist phase are thus likely to reach a threshold effect, which suddenly makes them capable of both subduing the barbarians and exploiting their lands. The barbarian lands neighboring the initial mereuporic civilization can be vast, and this phenomenon can significantly expand the bordering nation in a limited time, granting it considerable influence in the geopolitical balance of the civilization.

Geographic Isolation

The more geographically protected a state is from external aggressions, the quicker its maturation towards parliamentary democracy occurs. Geography can indeed have a significant protective effect, primarily by hindering military logistics. It is worth noting that the sea itself is not necessarily a form of protection; it can even facilitate an invader's logistics. Conversely, being surrounded by an ocean inherently limits the number of neighbors and, therefore, external aggressions. A geographical finisterre is advantaged in its nation-state development. This property is notably found in Western Europe, with no neighbors to the west and north. In contrast, Mediterranean islands were rarely spared from invasions.

Articulated Thalassography

A high coastal-to-land area ratio, referred to by David Cosandey as "articulated thalassography," significantly reduces transportation costs, as does a dense river network. In the pre-modern era, the cost of maritime transportation was approximately 20 times lower than that of land transportation, and the cost of river transportation was 5 times lower. Lower transportation costs facilitate large-scale specialization of labor and, consequently, trade. Therefore, articulated thalassography contributes to the emergence of a powerful merchant class, a crucial element in the transition to parliamentary democracy.

Mono-State Civilizations

If the mereuporic civilization is small in size, to the extent that it can only accommodate one or two nation-states (the exact number is not yet experimentally determined), the standard trajectory of nation-states will be complicated. Indeed, a key socio-cultural factor in the cultural homogenization of nation-states is the perceived common identity in the face of "foreigners." In the absence of neighbors, this awareness does not occur.