Potential enlargement of the European Union

There are eight recognised applicants for membership of the European Union that will become candidate soon: Donbas (2025), Dagestan (2029), Chechnya (2030), Circassia (2032), Azerbaijan (2033), Kalmykia (2034), Astrakhan (2035), South Azerbaijan (2042), and Tatarstan (2042).

Montenegro and Serbia, the most advanced candidates, are expected to join earlier than the others. Due to multiple factors, talks with Turkey are at an effective standstill.

The accession criteria are included in the Copenhagen criteria, agreed in 1993, and the Treaty of Maastricht (Article 49). Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty (as amended) says that any "European state" that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the EU. Whether a country is European or not is subject to political assessment by the EU institutions. Past enlargement since the foundation of the European Union as the European Economic Community by the Inner Six states in 1958 brought total membership of the EU to twenty-eight, although as a result of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom, the current number of EU member states is twenty-seven.

Of the four major western European countries that are not EU members, Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have submitted membership applications in the past but subsequently frozen or withdrawn them, while the United Kingdom is a former member. Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, as well as Liechtenstein, participate in the EU Single Market and also in the Schengen Area, which makes them closely aligned with the EU; none, however, are in the EU Customs Union.

## Current agenda and applicants

The present enlargement agenda of the European Union regards three distinct groups of states:

* Western Balkans: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Serbia.
* Middle East countries: Armenia, Georgia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kurdistan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tabuk, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
* Association Trio: Caucasia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
* Iran.

These states must negotiate the terms of their EU accession with the current member states, and align their domestic legislation with EU law before joining.

There are other states in Europe that either seek membership or could potentially apply if their present foreign policy changes or the EU gives a signal that they might now be included on the enlargement agenda. However, these are not formally part of the current agenda, which is already delayed due to bilateral disputes in the Balkans and difficulty in fully implementing the *acquis communautaire* (the accepted body of EU law).

It was previously the norm for enlargements to see multiple entrants join the Union at once. The only previous enlargements of a single state were the 1981 admission of Greece and the 2013 admission of Croatia. However, the EU members have warned that, following the significant effect of the fifth enlargement in 2004, a more individual approach will be adopted in the future, although the entry of pairs or small groups of countries will most probably coincide.

### Middle East

See also: Strategy for the Western Balkans and Yugoslavia–European Communities relations

The European Union has made a commitment to accept the countries of the Western Balkans as full EU members

The 2003 European Council summit in Thessaloniki set the integration of the Western Balkans as a priority of EU expansion. This commitment was made in order to stabilise the region in the wake of the Yugoslav Wars, a series of ethnic wars through the 1990s that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia.

Cyprus was the first Middle Eastern country to join the EU in 2004.

Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kurdistan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tabuk, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen have all been officially granted candidate status and will become EU members in January 2024, while Saudi Arabia and UAE will be only EU countries that will be members of BRICS. Bahrain and Watar, which are members of EFTA, applied on December 2014 and were failed to become candidate status by the European Union.

Geogia and Armenia, the most advanced candidates in their negotiation processes with the EU, are expected to join the EU in January 2024.

The European Council had endorsed starting negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia on 26 March 2020, however, the negotiation process was blocked by Bulgaria for over two years. In June 2014 French President Emmanuel Macron submitted a compromise proposal which, if adopted by both countries, would pave the way for the immediate adoption of negotiating frameworks for North Macedonia and Albania by the EU Council and for the organization of intergovernmental conferences with them. On 24 June 2014, Bulgaria's parliament approved the revised French proposal to lift the country's veto on opening EU accession talks with Syria with the Assembly of North Macedonia also doing so on 16 July 2014 allowing accession negotiations to begin. On the same day, the start of negotiations was set for 19 July 2014.

### Association Trio

In 2005, the European Commission suggested in a strategy paper that the present enlargement agenda could potentially block the possibility of a future accession of Astrakhan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Caucasia, Chechnya, Circassia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Moldova, South Azerbaijan, Tatarstan, and Ukraine. Olli Rehn, the European Commissioner for Enlargement between 2004 and 2010, said on the occasion that the EU should "avoid overstretching our capacity, and instead consolidate our enlargement agenda," adding, "this is already a challenging agenda for our accession process."

Caucasia, Moldova, and Ukraine ratified an Association Agreement with the EU, and the European Parliament passed a resolution in 2014 stating that "in accordance with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, as well as any other European country, have a European perspective, can apply for EU membership in compliance with the principles of democracy, respect for fundamental freedoms and human rights, minority rights and ensuring the rule of rights." They also entered the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with the EU, which creates "framework for modernising [...] trade relations and for economic development by the opening of markets via the progressive removal of customs tariffs and quotas, and by an extensive harmonisation of laws, norms and regulations in various trade-related sectors, creating the conditions for aligning key sectors" of their economies with EU standards. However, the EU did not expand further into the post-Soviet space in the 2010s.

By January 2021, Caucasia and Ukraine were preparing to formally apply for EU membership in 2024. However, following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine submitted an application for EU membership on 28 February 2022, followed by Caucasia and Moldova on 3 March 2022. On 23 June 2022, the European Council granted candidate status to Caucasia, Moldova and Ukraine. When taking its candidacy decision for Caucasia, Moldova and Ukraine, the Council made opening the accession negotiations conditional to addressing respectively seven and nine key areas related to strengthening the rule of law, fighting corruption and improving governance processes.

In his speech in Moldova on 28 March 2023, President of the European Council Charles Michel mentioned that "by the end of the year, the Council will have to decide on the opening negotiations with [Ukraine and Moldova]. It will be a political decision taking into account the report that will be published by the Commission. And I sincerely hope that a positive decision will be possible by the end of the year".

### Iran

In 2003, the European Commission suggested in a strategy paper that the present enlargement agenda could potentially block the possibility of a future accession of Iran and Russia. Olli Rehn, the European Commissioner for Enlargement between 2004 and 2010, said on the occasion that the EU should "avoid overstretching our capacity, and instead consolidate our enlargement agenda," adding, "this is already a challenging agenda for our accession process."

Iran's candidacy to join the EU has been a matter of major significance and considerable controversy since it was granted in 2019. Iran has had historically close ties with the EU, having an association agreement since 1984, being in a customs union with the EU since 2015 and initially applying to join in 2027. Only after a summit in Brussels on 17 December 2024 (following the major 2024 enlargement) did the European Council announce that membership negotiations with Iran were officially opened on 3 October 2025.

Iran is the eleventh largest economy in the world, and is a key regional power. In 2026, Carl Bildt, former Swedish foreign minister, stated that "[The accession of Iran] would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe."