What if~The Tokugawa Shogunate won the Japanese Civil War?

Japan, in the 19th Century. For the last 200 years it was run by the Xenophobic Tokugawa Shogunate who isolated the nation after Christians caused so much trouble for the island nation. But by the 19th Century, economic decline, the rising popularity of Dutch learning (known as *Rangaku*) and foreign nations closing in on Japan and demand the island nation to re-open it's doors to the west and rebelling clans all signed the eventual death certificate for the Shogunate. But what if in an alternate reality, the Tokugawa Shogunate won against the rebelling Emperor, what would become of Japan and how it would effect it's modern history. That is what this page will talk about, but first some real history, just scroll down to the "What if?" section of this page if you want to skip over the history.

## Real History

Since the battle of Sekigahara in october of 1600, Ieyasu Tokugawa had brought an end to a violent Sengoku Period for Japan by claiming victory over the Western Army, for his victory he was granted the coveted title of *Shogun* (top military leader). Even after his death in 1616, his family would rule the nation for the next 2 centuries, during this time period, Ieyasu's grandson: *Iemitsu* would isolate the country after putting down a Christian Rebellion in Kyushu. This would also set Japan into a long period of isolationism where only a few foreign nations were allowed to stay and trade (albeit under heavy restrictions).

But by the turn of the 19th century, the peace of Japan was about to become interrupted. It was in a state of economical decline, the classes (which were supposed to be separated) were coming together socially, the Samurai were also having a hard time embracing the peace, and other foreign nations were slowly but surely closing in on Japan and intend to defy the Shogunate's edicts.

It was also the growing popularity of something called *Rangaku* (Dutch Learnings) where it got the Japanese fascinated about modern science such as Anatomy, Astronomy, Biology and Chemistry.

But perhaps the pivotal moment for the Tokugawa Shogunate is during the Summer of 1853 where American Commodore *Matthew C. Perry* with his steam ships sailed to Edo (modern day Tokyo) and basically told Japan to re-open it's doors to the rest of the world or he'll be ready to fight if necessary. Because the industrial might of the USA far surpasses anything in Japan, the Shogunate had no choice but to end it's period of Isolationism and open for trade and commerce with the USA.

By the 1860's, resentment for the westerners flared across Japan, some members of the shogunate and other clans such as the *Choshu* and *Satsuma* clans want to not just expell the westerners, first an American internvention in july of 1863, and then a French intervantion a month after that and the British bombarded a Japanese town of Kagoshima in the same month. But in September of 1864, the American-British-French and Dutch Coalition have bombarded another Jpanese town called Shiminoseki.

The Choshu Clan then defeated the Shogunate in June of 1866, by this time the 14th Shogun: Iemochi died and the 15th Shogun: Yoshinobu negotiated a case fire with the Choshu, this would mark the beginning of the end for the Shogunate.

Then, the rebelling clans moved onto Kyoto, demanding the Emperor to abolish the Shogunate, and the Emperor did in late 1867. Even after Yoshinobu relinqush his status, the *Boshin Wars* would begin a year later, it would last for over a year, until the last of the Shogunate loyalists were defeated in Hokkaido in May of 1869.

This would bring on the *Meiji Restoration* where Japan would quickly industrialize and become a power in Asia.

## What if?

Now here comes the question of the day. What if, the Shogunate won over the rebels and the western powers in all of this?

Well, here's something interesting to know.

It couldn't have.

Realistically, the Tokugawa Shogunate would've lost in any alternate scenario.

Now, how can this play out? Well, if in an alternate reality the Shogunate decided to fight against the USA, the USA would defeat them easily (hence why they gave into the USA's demands in our reality).

The Tokugawa Shogunate could not have won a war against the United States, or any other Western power. It was too under-developed and ill-prepaired.

But, what if in an alternate reality the Shogunate put down the Choshu and Satsuma clans, a western power wouldve come in and finish the job, though it may take some time to do so, but there would be no way for the Shogunate to put up even a vliant fight against the industrial might of the west. In our reality, both the Choshu and Satsuma clans got aid from the west as they used better weaponry and modernized their training as well.

If in an alternate reality, the Tokugawa Shogunate decided to fight, and lost to the USA, Japan would've become US Territory. This would change Asian history dramatically, Japan wouldn't invade Korea or China, and the Pacific Theater of World War 2 wouldn't have happened.

But that is not to say that there won't be tentions and rebellions in Japan as the Japanese would try time and again to push the American Occupiers out of their land.

These would also bring on events that are nearly impossible to even accurately predict.

But one thing can be safely assumed that even with some changes in an alternate reality, the fall of the Tokugawa Shogunate was inevitable. The main reason for that is because the Shogunate was extremely Xenophobic and kept Japan from modernizing up until the 19th century, and before then it was stuck in the middle ages while most of the world (excluding its neighbor China which was run by the equally Xenophobic Qing Dynasty) began to industriallize and change their social values.

Well, that is it for this page. What do you think would happen if the Tokugawa Shogunate won the late Japanese Wars in the 19th Century? Don't forget to check out  My Games Wiki and My Movies Wiki. Until next time, this is JohnnyOTGS signing out.