Chapter 135: The Hall Of Mirrors

### Story Date

Tuesday 28 June, AD 1043/6551 ε.Κ/17 Dhu I-Qa’da 434 AH/17 He-Yue Huangyou Era Year 1/17 Sólmánuður ÅrO -1

## Appearances

### Locations

Berk
Saint-Malo
Vinland
Azaq

*One category of recurrent problems that are endemic to the field of espionage are those of ‘cognitive traps’—systemic biases in thinking and analysis that lead the intelligence analyst down blind alleys and towards incorrect conclusions. These can come about from the personal biases of the individual analyst or from larger scale biases on the part of the organization to which they belong, but in all cases, it is a systemic issue that can cause large scale problems based on the garbage-in, garbage-out principle—if your assumptions about why an action was taken are incorrect, then your conclusions will also be incorrect.*

*The most common cognitive trap is that of ‘mirror imaging’—the assumption that the subject of the analysis thinks, considers, and acts in a manner much like that of the analyst themselves, thereby rendering their actions in the structure of “How would I act if I was in their place?” This particular trap is pernicious, as it can be hard to recognize unless confronted—and when it reaches the organizational level, it can be hard for individual analysts to challenge, as the conclusions, even if flawed, typically come from senior members of their organization who will be acknowledged experts.*

*But this trap is particularly dangerous, beyond how it can lead to incorrect conclusions, as it can cause an inexperienced analyst to view a dissenting viewpoint as a personal attack on themselves, which can result in them growing more attached to their own analysis in response. Such entrenched opinions, especially in a person of responsibility and decision-making power, can be catastrophic. Having the ability to bring in dissenting voices, especially from other backgrounds, can be helpful in combating this, but the analyst needs to hear those opinions and have the experience and necessary dispassion to be able to separate themselves and their personal egos from the structure of their work…*

*—Statecraft: The Great Game of Diplomacy, Espionage & War By Other Means, 1732, Rouen University Press*

## Chapter Overview

* Duckquack informs William that he won't follow him back to Normandy and that he's interested in Káyọ̀dé.
* Camilla shares with Astrid the news of the Romans learning about the Bog Burglars, and that Inga is one of them, She also recounts how Scholar Milhalis is convinced the Bog Burglars are the original Amazons.
* Henry, Joan and Godefroy conspire on a plan to unseat Duke William.
* Bladewit questions Fishlegs on his 'kommunes' proposal to the Citizenship Conclave and he explains that his goal there is that he's hoping he can structure businesses and other institutions to be able to run without worrying about tyrants getting the leadership position.
* Kasim petitions Drago to approve a scouting mission deep into Akdoğan’s territory that Drago approves. Gürer suggests they also attack a Roman town but Drago rejects that on the grounds they can't afford to open another war on another flank while the Pechenegs have their civil war.
* Durgelel begins proselytizing to Drago and Kelebek for Christianity.
* Fishlegs tells Heather about Jesus Christ being a Jew.
* Heather recruits Yishai as an analyst.

## Trivia

Scholar Milhalis's theory is an example of the concepts of interpretatio graeca/romana/germanica. See also the prologue of the Prose Edda, which claims that Norse deities were descended from Trojans (though the Prose Edda has not yet been written at the time of ATOV).

## Characters

### Humans

* William of Normandy
* Duckquack Hensteethsson
* Cami Berthasdóttir
* Eret Eretsson
* Astrid Hákonsdóttir clan Haddock
* Hiccup clan Haddock
* Wulfhild of Norway
* Hawiz Breizh
* Godefroy of Brittany
* Henry of Brittany
* Joan of Brittany (first appearance)
* Unnamed guard
* Fishlegs clan Ingerman
* Bladewit Drorsdóttir
* Valka Gawkeyesdóttir
* Drago Bludvist
* Kasim
* Gürer
* Kelebek
* Durgulel
* Heather
* Yishai ben Yaakov

### Dragons

* Dauntless (first named appearance)
* Mjolnir
* Toothless
* Bluetooth
* Silverlight
* Cloudjumper
* Furious's Second (first appearance)
* Furious

## Analysis

### Epigraph Tie-In

* The epigraph discusses Mirror Imaging, a cognitive trap where a person assumes another person thinks and acts like them, in the context of espionage. The chapter shows Heather being unable to make sense of the Byzantines spending a lot of money to rebuild a church in another nation until Fishlegs explains that church is held as particularly sacred to Christians.