Contract Over/Under Draft

The Contract Over/Under Draft is an annual Effectively Wild competition where the participants take turns choosing free agents and declaring whether they believe their eventual contract will be worth more or less than the predicted value published by an agreed upon third party source. The draft is typically held immediately after the conclusion of the World Series before free agents begin to be signed.

## Basic Rules

Though they have changed slightly over the years, the basic framework remains the same:

1. MLB Trade Rumors' free agent contract predictions are used as a baseline. (In earlier years, it was ESPN.)
2. Each participant drafts a player from the list along with a prediction of whether the actual contract will be "Over" or "Under" the baseline.
3. A participant earns or loses "money" based on the amount by which the actual value of each contract is in the predicted direction. Example: If a player's baseline is $10 million, and a participant chooses "Over", then the participant earns the amount by which the contract exceeds $10 million but loses the amount by which the contract is below $10 million.
4. The full guaranteed value of the contract is used, not the average annual value.
5. Starting in 2019, a $10 million bonus is earned for predicting the direction correctly.
6. Highest total wins.

## Rules lawyering

* Only guaranteed money is counted. Vesting options, performance bonuses, and club options do not count. (Examples from the inaugural 2014 draft: Jon Lester, Hanley Ramirez, and Nori Aoki all had vesting options. Aoki and Luke Gregerson had performance bonuses. 2014 Jason Grilli's club $3 option did not count toward his total.)
* Shohei Ohtani's unusually-structured contract threw the 2023 draft into disarray in Episode 2096. In Episode 2097, Episode 2098, Ben invites listeners to submit "amicus briefs" on how it should be counted in the draft, and put it to a vote in Episode 2098. The conclusion, as reported in Episode 2099 is that the total guaranteed value remains unadjusted.
* If a player does not sign an MLB contract, no score is recorded. (Citation: 2014 Hiroki Kuroda signed with NPB's Hiroshima Toyo Carp and scored no points in either direction.)

## Results Summary

Scores are in millions of dollars and have been rounded.

## 2014

* Episode: 578
* Date: November 21, 2014
* Competitors (in draft order): Sam Miller, Ben Lindbergh
* Predictions source: Jim Bowden on ESPN Insider ($).

* **WINNER: Ben Lindbergh**

## 2015

* Episode: 766
* Date: November 13, 2015
* Competitors (in draft order): Sam Miller, Ben Lindbergh
* Predictions list: Jim Bowden on ESPN Insider

* **WINNER: Ben Lindbergh**

## 2017

* Epsidoe 1136
* Date: November 14, 2017
* Competitors (in draft order): Ben Lindbergh, Jeff Sullivan
* Prediciton list: MLB Trade Rumors

* **WINNER: Jeff Sullivan**

## 2018

* Episode: 1293
* Date: November 07, 2018
* Competitors (in draft order): Jeff Sullivan, Ben Lindbergh
* Prediction list: MLB Trade Rumors

* **WINNER: Jeff Sullivan**

## 2019

* Episode: 1455
* Date: November 11, 2019
* Competitors (in draft order): Sam Miller, Ben Lindbergh
* Prediction list: MLB Trade Rumors
* Notes: This is the first year a $10 million bonus is added to every correct prediction, to increase the value of predicting low-value contracts correctly.

* **WINNER: Sam Miller**

## 2020

* Episode: 1614
* Date: November 10, 2020
* Competitors (in draft order): Sam Miller, Ben Lindbergh

* **WINNER: Ben Lindbergh**

Note: Jake Odorizzi was the last free agent to sign, and he gave Ben a come-from-behind victory.

## 2021

* Episode: 1770
* Date: November 10, 2021
* Competitors: Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, Ben Clemens

* **WINNER: Ben Lindbergh**

Note: An interim scoreboard erroneously calculated Ben Clemens's score for predicting Kevin Gausman's contract as +37 instead of +38. Ben Lindbergh used the erroneous value when reporting the results in Episode 1826. Fortunately, the error did not affect the standings.

## 2022

* Episode: 1929
* Date: November 15, 2022
* Competitors: Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley

* **WINNER: Ben Lindbergh** (discussed in Episode 1946)
* Note: Carlos Correa initially signed for $350 million with the Giants but failed his medical evaluation. He then signed with the Mets for $315 million, but failed that medical evaluation as well. He then signed with the Twins for $200 million. This drama unfolded starting in Episode 1945.

## 2023

* Episode: 2087
* Date: November 18, 2023
* Competitors: Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley

* Winner: TBD

## Footnotes

1. ↑ The intention of the bonus is to reward predicting the direction of small contracts.