Episode 1143: Giancarlohtani

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter, as always, about Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, as well as the slow start to the offseason and baseball takeaways from news about basketball and football. Then they look for players who performed better in team losses, talk about two twins, and answer listener emails about the most valuable memo writer, robot bloggers, Stanton’s opt-out clause, two Ohtani hypotheticals, Mike Trout’s defensive position and spot in the batting order, Steve Matz’s future and starter-reliever conversions, Aaron Judge’s maximum contact rate, the best team superpower, and more, before wrapping up with a brief aside about Bitcoin.*

## Topics

* Players that are better in losses than in wins
* Johnny and Eddie O'Brien
* Most valuable memo writers
* Computer generated baseball writing
* Giancarlo Stanton's opt-out clause
* Nelson Cruz's outfield value
* Linking Mike Trout's defensive position and batting position
* Starter to reliever conversions
* Lowering Aaron Judge's strikeout rate
* Player development superpowers
* MLB teams sharing players

## Banter

* Miami Marlins' plans for pressuring Giancarlo Stanton into accepting a trade
* Scott Boras' comments about the signing of Shohei Ohtani and the Japanese posting system
* What are the reasons for a slow offseason and free-agent market?
* Pressure from teams to stay below the luxury tax threshold
* Large number of offseason front office changes
* How far would a team go to sign Shohei Ohtani?
* Signing and draft takeaways from football
* The baseball equivalent of a 3 on 5 basketball game (Alabama vs. Minnesota)

## Email Questions

* Ezra: "Imagine in a world in which one person is far and away the best 'come play here' memo writer on earth and will only sell his or her services for one team. How much do you think he or she would be paid to write the Ohtani memo?"
* David: "How soon until computer software writes the majority of what we read, both on baseball and other subjects? How will the BBWAA deal with this?"
* Jeremy: "Could the Dodgers use Stanton's negotiating window to try to convince Stanton to exercise his opt-out clause immediately, effectively making it a 3-year $77 million contract? It would make the trade more palatable to the Dodgers or any other team."
* Mike: "If the Mariners sign Ohtani they will have to DH him the days he is not pitching. In order to make DH room they will have to put Nelson Cruz in the outfield? How much WAR would Ohtani have to put up as a hitter to counter Cruz's negative value as an outfielder?"
* Joe (Houston, TX): "Suppose Mike Trout were required to have a spot in the batting order that matched the numerical value of his defensive position. What would the optimal spot be?"
* Dylan: "Do you believe that health problems for starters can be mitigated by switching to the pen? Would it work for Steven Matz?"
* Eric: "How low could Aaron Judge get his strikeout rate if his only concern was making contact?"
* Eric: "Imagine three teams equal in every way except that each has a team building superpower. Team is by far the best at identifying which top 100 prospects will be all stars. Team B can identify which non prospects will end up as average regulars and Team C is the best at identifying when established stars will fall off and be replacement level. Which team wins the most World Series?"
* Aiden: "Would a MLB team every consider making a deal to share a player with another ballclub? Small market teams might be more able to go in for big free agents knowing they'd only be on the hook for half the contract."

## Stat Segment

* Jeff uses tOPS+ to examine players that were better in losses than wins. (37:31)
* Rick Wise had a 119 tOPS+
* Johnny O'Brien is the career leader in tOPS+ in team losses (minimum 500 PA). He had a tOPS+ of 107 in his team losses.
* Eddie O'Brien also had a career tOPS+ of 107 in losses.
* Jeff momentarily believed the two career leaders were the same person: "Wait a second. Hold on... Okay, no. This is impossible... Are they the same person? No. N-n-n-no... My hands are shaking. Right now my hands are actually shaking." (43:15)

## Notes

* There is evidence to suggest that waiting to sign players does benefit teams. In one sample players signed before January 1st were worth 5.5 WAR on average and those after were worth 3.6 WAR.
* Jeff thinks that Shohei Ohtani has an extreme amount of leverage and could make crazy requests of teams that they would cede to. He says, "Shohei Ohtani could ask for blood and I think some teams would give it."
* Ben comments that the Stat Segment needs a catchier name. Jeff excitedly suggests 'number blast!'.
* In Episode 458 Sam Miller conducted a Play Index segment that was the reverse of Jeff's segment in this episode. Sam looked up players who were worse in games that their team won.
* Johnny O'Brien was interviewed in Episode 1153.
* Jeff, on the O'Brien twins, "Forget Alabama vs. Minnesota, this is the most unbelievable thing in the history of sports."

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1143: Giancarlohtani
* Four reasons why MLB's Hot Stove is lukewarm by Jeff Passan