Twilight 1987 Timeline

##### **May 1981:**

In a closed Politburo meeting, Soviet Secretary-General Leonid Brezhnev and KGB Director Yuri Andropov announce that they believe the United States and its allies are planning a preemptive nuclear strike on the USSR. To counter this threat, the Politburo created Operation RYaN (short for "Ракетное Ядерное Нападение", or "Nuclear Missile Attack"). RYaN is a joint KGB and GRU operation to monitor US and allied nuclear first strike capability and inform the Soviet leadership of an impending attack, reporting directly to the KGB Director.

##### **April 1983:**

The USA and allies undertake FleetEx '83, a joint naval exercise by the USA, Canadian and Australian naval forces in the North Pacific. FleetEx comes very close to Soviet territorial waters.

##### **September 1983:**

Korean Airlines Flight 007 from Alaska to South Korea is shot down over Soviet territory after identified as an intelligence flight by the Soviet Far East air force.

##### **November 1983:**

   Exercise Able Archer begins in Western Europe. Able Archer is a NATO exercise designed to simulate a nuclear strike on the USSR. KGB and GRU agents operating in Western Europe, the UK and the USA as part of RYaN detect Able Archer and report that preparations are beginning. Andropov, now Secretary General, believes that the strike he predicted in 1981 is coming and the Able Archer is the final dry-run. He believes that NATO forces will not attempt a ground attack on the Warsaw Pact during winter conditions, so the Soviets begin preparing for a nuclear exchange in the spring of 1984. Andropov immediately calls for an international summit on disarmament. The United States agrees, but both sides begin building up their force readiness in Europe.

##### **December 1983:**

Reagan and Andropov meet in Vienna while the Soviet Union reinforces its forces in Germany, Poland and Czechoslovakia. The USA, Canada and the UK move more forces into Europe. The summit breaks down as both sides accuse the other of not taking it seriously. Both Reagan and Andropov fly home on the third day, and although negotiators remain for a few days more, neither side will agree to deescalate first. France denounces both sides and claims that it will only defend West Germany if the Soviets initiate aggression. Cuba, intimidated by US shows of force despite its long friendship with the USSR, also claims it is neutral, and Soviet forces in Cuba are asked to leave populated areas in order to avoid risking Cuban lives. China also claims neutrality but begins amassing forces on the Soviet and Vietnamese borders. Austria reaffirms its neutrality, as do Mexico, Australia, Yugoslavia, and most other regional powers.

##### **January 1984:**

The USS *Boston* disappears in the Barents Sea while patrolling outside Soviet international waters. President Reagan announces the disappearance and states that if the *Boston* was attacked by the Soviets this constitutes a declaration of war. After a few days of silence the Soviet Union announces that the *Boston* entered Soviet waters and was destroyed. Without waiting for a formal declaration of war, Andropov orders a full scale offensive against NATO forces in Europe. The war begins at midnight on January 6th when Soviet forces enter West Berlin. The initial Soviet offensive strikes against Norway, West Germany, Turkey, Greece and even neutral Austria. Outside Europe, they also launch an attack on Iran. Nuclear and chemical weapons are not used. World War III begins.

##### **February 1984:**

Soviet forces have pushed forward on all fronts. Their greatest success in Europe is in the North German plain, where they have broken through NATO lines and are rapidly advancing. Attacks on Norway, Greece and Turkey have also been successful. In Iran, they easily overwhelm the ill-disciplined Iranian forces, who were already struggling to fight off Iraqi offensives prior to the Soviet attack. The USA and UK send forces to the Persian Gulf to secure Iranian oil against the Soviets. Despite tensions along the Chinese border, the USSR and China officially remain at peace, but China takes the opportunity to attack Vietnam once more. At sea, the Soviets are less successful - despite some early successes, Soviet naval forces in the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific take heavy losses. Yuri Andropov dies in the second week of February. He is succeeded by Dmitri Ustinov, a former defense industry planner who was responsible for the relocation of Soviet industry to the Urals in World War II, and oversaw the Soviet military space program in the 1970s.

##### **July 1984:**

Soviet forces have overrun most of West Germany, with NATO forces holding out on a narrow strip of land around the Rhine. Soviet forces reach the Dutch border and continue, attacking several Dutch towns. Soviet tanks also over-run Jutland and threaten Copenhagen. With Hamburg in Soviet hands and French ports denied to NATO due to French neutrality, NATO leadership sees the threat that the Soviets will capture Rotterdam and Antwerp, the last remaining heavy port facilities in Europe, effectively cutting off the ability to resupply NATO forces in Germany. Neither side has used nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. However Soviet forces are experiencing severe logistical issues. A Soviet offensive against US-British-German-Dutch forces in and around the Dutch city of Venlo ends in a Soviet defeat and retreat. Partisan activity against Soviet forces in Germany, Austria and especially Iran is becoming a major problem. In the USA, Reagan faces a challenge in Presidential elections as John Glenn, a Democratic US senator from Ohio as well as a former astronaut and Marine aviator, accuses Reagan of being a warmonger and pledges that, if he is elected, he will do his best to negotiate a peace in Europe. Reagan prepares for a counter offensive in Europe, but NATO generals are having difficulty building up sufficient supplies. Nuclear weapons have still not been used, and both sides have pledged not to use them first. The Chinese offensive against Vietnam has stalled, but both sides have taken heavy casualties. The Soviets, in collaboration with Iraq, have occupied two-thirds of Iranian territory but British and American forces are holding out along the coast of the Persian Gulf.

##### **August 1984:**

On the 45th anniversary of the signing of the Molotov-von Ribbentrop pact, Polish workers and students demonstrate against the war in all major cities. The protests, coordinated by independent trade unions and the Catholic church, come as a surprise to the Polish government. While previous Polish governments had tried to balance repression with concessions when faced with Church and labour opposition, Soviet pressure to keep the Polish war industries functioning leads to brutal crackdowns as ZOMO, the Polish mechanised police, clear the streets with extreme force. Footage of the crack down is smuggled to the west via a Swedish independent journalist. Other anti-Soviet demonstrations and uprisings begin to appear in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and even the USSR itself.

##### **November 1984:**

John Glenn wins the US elections and immediately proposes a peace summit in Switzerland. The Soviets, knowing they are not prepared for further offensives and concerned about unrest in Eastern Europe and Iran, declare an armistice. The summit is planned for Christmas, and hope breaks out across the world that the "Christmas truce" will turn into peace.

##### **December 1984:**

Dmitri Ustinov unexpectedly dies. He is replaced by Viktor Grishin, the Moscow party chief and a known hardliner. The Swiss summit is postponed after Grishin's government begins adding preconditions that the USA finds unacceptable, notably including the withdrawal of US forces from Iran without a commitment to similarly withdraw Soviet troops.

##### **January 1985:**

Glenn is inaugurated on January 21st. He announces an end to the armistice and the NATO counter offensive, planned since August, begins. In a diplomatic *volte face* that shocks the Soviets, Sweden declares war on the USSR, citing Soviet incursions on Swedish waters - in fact Sweden's entry into the war had been the subject of negotiations since April of 1984, and had only been postponed to achieve tactical surprise. Swedish forces enter Denmark, liberating Jutland, at the same time that NATO forces in the Netherlands and Germany begin a counter attack along the coast. Soviet troops are demoralised and unprepared, and are driven back in a series of sharp defeats.

##### **March 1985:**

NATO forces operating in Norway cross Finnish territory during an air strike against Soviet forces. Grishin claims that under the Soviet-Finnish Treaty, Finland is obliged to resist NATO forces attacking the USSR through Finland. The Finnish President asks for consultations, but Grishin states that unless Finland declares war on NATO, the USSR will consider the Finnish-Soviet peace treaty null and void. Soviet troops have already begun to enter Finnish Lapland without waiting for a response, and the Finnish government claims it has been invaded and mobilises. Soviet troops over-run the north of Finland and link up with Soviet troops in Norway, even entering Swedish territory, but do not attack the heavily populated south of Finland.

##### **May 1985:**

Soviet troops are being pushed back across Germany, and the first NATO troops - a West German tank unit - cross the old Inner German Border and liberate the East German city of Nordhausen, where they are greeted as liberators.

##### **June 1985:**

Romania, which has been struck by NATO long range air strikes on its oil fields and port facilities but has otherwise remained unscathed, declares neutrality and orders the few Soviet troops stationed there to leave its territory. The USSR instead orders Hungary and Bulgaria to attack their neighbour with the aim of seizing the precious Ploesti oil fields. Romania calls for urgent NATO aid, but its isolation means none is forthcoming. A major uprising breaks out in Soviet Moldova. Hungarian troops entering Romania begin arming the local Hungarian population and discuss annexing Hungarian-majority areas of Romania. West German and US troops reach the outskirts of Berlin.

##### **July 1985:**

Mexican legislative elections take place. Despite long term electoral manipulation by the ruling pro-American PRI, the legislative election is won by a coalition of social democratic, socialist and outright Marxist parties led by Rosario Ibarra de la Garza, a Trotskyist activist. The new legislature is anti-American but does not dispute Mexican neutrality, although it does get into a major conflict with the pro-American, conservative President Miguel de la Madrid who claims only he has the right to set Mexican foreign and defense policy.

    West German troops liberate Berlin. A major uprising in Dresden drives Soviet and East German officials out of the city. Several East German army units desert, as do several Polish units in Germany. In Danzig, a massive uprising of workers and farmers wrecks the city's port facilities and burns local party and police headquarters. There are rumours that British and American special forces units are present in Danzig. Latvian and Ukrainian nationalists in the USSR stage attacks against Soviet police and military forces transiting to the front.

##### **August 1985:**

Grishin informs Glenn via the Moscow-Washington hotline that if NATO forces enter Poland, this will be considered an attack on the Soviet Union itself. Glenn believes this is a bluff and orders US forces to cross the border. A US armoured brigade occupies Kostryzn. The next day, NATO forces are hit by a Soviet tactical nuclear offensive. NATO forces were prepared for Soviet use of nuclear weapons and set into action an immediate counterforce strike, but tens of thousands of NATO soldiers in Germany, Poland and Norway lose their lives as their forces are obliterated by warheads. Soviet strikes hit not only the front line but also the rear area, meaning that the soldiers who survive are short on supplies. Soviet forces taking the brunt of the counter strike take massive casualties in Poland, Norway, Sweden and Finland, as well as the few areas in Germany still held by Soviet and East German forces. Strikes continue for several days before petering out as both sides exhaust their tactical nuclear weapons. Presumably out of fear of a Chinese offensive, the Soviets also initiate a tactical nuclear strike against Chinese forces along the Chinese-Soviet border. The Chinese attempt retaliation, but their crude delivery systems mean only a single tactical weapon gets through, hitting Soviet troops near Birobidzhan. Soviet forces enter Chinese territory to establish a defensive buffer zone. Despite the "nuclear button" being pushed, neither side uses long range strategic nuclear weapons, and no nuclear weapons are used outside the immediate theatre.

##### **September 1985:**

Despite the lack of nuclear strikes outside the European theatre, panic sets in. All major combatants initiate drastic civil defense measures. Hoarding and rationing of food, fuel and water begins, and civil conflicts break across Europe, the USSR and even North America as fear of nuclear strikes leads cities to empty, leading to transport disruption, riots and increasing civil disorder. In some countries, notably China and Iran, civil order breaks down entirely. In most NATO countries and the USSR order is retained but at the price of many deaths during semi-controlled evacuations and food riots. In the USA, Canada and UK, conscription is reintroduced. Many citizens respond eagerly, but others resist either passively or in some cases, actively, with anti-draft demonstrations turning into riots in Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta and Quebec. In Mexico, the President is removed from office by an emergency vote from Congress, with Ibarra de la Garza becoming President. President de la Madrid claims his removal is illegal. The Mexican coalition is breaking down due to the economic crisis brought on by the war and Ibarra de la Garza is rumoured to be in conflict with her own political allies. Soviet forces in Cuba receive a surprise offer from the new Mexican leftist government to relocate - fearing an American nuclear attack on Cuba, they do so, arriving in Tampico at the end of the month. The US government protests but is unable to take action. A major earthquake strikes central Mexico, killing several thousand people and disrupting government functions, leading to local military commanders taking control of several areas to maintain order and provide relief efforts.

##### **December 1985:**

The European frontline has been static for several months with only minor offensives and counter offensives. NATO forces occupy about 70% of East Germany, 50% of Czechoslovakia and Austria, and a few strategic locations inside Poland. Soviet, East German and Polish forces are increasingly occupied in trying to fight civil unrest inside Soviet territory. The main Soviet offensive is against Romania, as Soviet forces in Ukraine occupy the precious Ploesti fields. The anti-Soviet Romanian government remains in control of most of the rest of the country and even manages to take some Bulgarian territory. Snow falls early in December, and military and civilian meteorologists warn of a severe winter, exacerbated by global fuel shortages.

##### **February 1986:**

New US, Canadian and British forces arrive in Europe and begin a new offensive along the Polish front, in coordination with anti-Soviet Polish resistance forces. Many soldiers were recruited only weeks before entering the front line. The Polish government in exile in London arrives in Poland, claiming to represent all anti-Soviet forces in the country, although its effective command and control is spotty. Three major NATO offensives begin, with the goal of driving the Soviets out of Poland and ultimately capturing the fertile farmlands of Ukraine and the oil fields of Romania. A joint US-British attack along the north coast with its objective of the Soviet city of Kaliningrad, a US-German-Dutch attack through central Poland with its objective as Warsaw and the Soviet-Polish border, and the main offensive, a US-German-Canadian attack through southern Poland, aiming to reach north Ukraine by way of Krakow. The Soviets retaliate with tactical weapons, but they are not as effective largely due to NATO counter-force tactics and use of their own tactical weapons. As major nationalist uprisings break out in Ukraine, the Baltics and the Soviet Caucasus, Grishin orders a limited nuclear strike against NATO strategic facilities. The first attack strikes NATO controlled ports in Hamburg and Rotterdam. NATO retaliates with a nuclear attack against the Soviet-controlled Baltic port cities of Kaliningrad and Klaipeda.

##### **March 1986:**

Global nuclear war breaks out, but neither side escalates to a full nuclear exchange. Instead, they focus on targets with strategic value. In Europe, all major port cities are hit by nuclear attacks, as are major strategic resources such as the Romanian oil fields or the German industrial heartlands along the Ruhr. However, major population centres such as London and Amsterdam are spared. Despite French neutrality, the USSR targets several French Atlantic ports to deny their use to NATO. France retaliates with a nuclear strike on the Soviet port facilities in Crimea. The USSR and USA are hit by limited nuclear strikes, again mostly targeting strategic locations. MIlitary command and control facilities are also targets. It is rumoured that both Grishin and Glenn are killed in these decapitation strikes. At this point Soviet and NATO command and control networks "go dark". Communications are equally impossible with NATO headquarters in Belgium as with the Warsaw Pact Combined Command in Warsaw. Commanders in the field are forced to rely on their own intelligence and logistical resources.

##### **April 1986:**

The nuclear attacks trail away. Even without effective command and control, many military leaders continue offensives on their own initiative, either to defend their troops, to seize resources or because they believe they are still fighting in the national interest. The NATO advance in Poland continues, slowed greatly by shortfall of supplies, partisan activity, and several outbreaks of communicable diseases in the civilian population that spread to troops and are aggravated by a lack of military discipline and medical supplies. The Mexican government, facing increasing economic and civil order crises, declares war on the United States over attacks on Mexican citizens during conflicts over food and land in Texas - this is in fact a pretext, as the increasingly fraught leftist government hopes a war will unite the Mexican people. Despite the poor state of the Mexican armed forces, the American border patrol and Texas national guard are also sorely lacking in supplies and morale, and the presence of the Soviet forces known as "Division Cuba" provides the Mexicans with an effective armoured spearhead - the Soviet officers have agreed to assist Mexico in exchange for assistance returning to the USSR. By the end of the month Mexican-Soviet forces have reached San Antonio. In one of the last areas of East Germany held by the Soviets, the Greifswald nuclear reactor explodes. It is not clear whether this was due to a NATO military action damaging the reactor, mismanagement by East German technicians under stress due to the conflict, or even a deliberate action by the Soviet forces in the area designed to economically devastate NATO occupied Germany. Whatever the reason, for several weeks, the reactor burns uncontrollably, showering radioactive smoke over the former East Germany. Tens of thousands of East Germans flee into Poland and West Germany, where central government has broken down. The effect on NATO forces in Poland is brutal, as their supply lines are effectively totally cut off. Inside Germany, the Federal government loses all authority. NATO forces inside Germany take control of their bivouac areas, confiscating food and other supplies. The French army occupies a large area west of the Rhine.

##### **May 1986:**

The three NATO offensives in Poland grind to a halt. A siege breaks out outside Warsaw, and NATO troops are unable proceed southwest due to being stopped by a staunch defense by Polish troops in Czestochowa. The US and German commanders outside Warsaw set in for a long haul, but in Czestochowa the American Major General in charge of the joint NATO forces decides on a full on assault on the town. A few Soviet forces are present, mostly in the form of special forces and artillery, but the main force defending the town are Polish airborne troops and militia. Perhaps due to rumours of NATO forces looting and pillaging, perhaps due to the absence of Soviet troops inside the city, or perhaps due to an impassioned speech given by a Polish Colonel before the Black Madonna of Czestochowa, the people of Czestochowa rally against the NATO forces, who expected to be greeted as liberators. Bloody street by street and house by house fighting breaks out throughout Czestochowa. The Polish forces take heavy casualties and the city is laid waste, but by the end of the month, although the NATO forces have not been decisively beaten, they have run short of the supplies needed to sustain an offensive. An order to retreat is given, as the US and German forces attempt to regroup around Wroclaw, but not before destroying the few remaining transport and industrial facilities in Czestochowa with demolition munitions. The Mexican-Soviet offensive stalls at the Brazos River, stopped by Texan partisans and the remnants of the Border Patrol and National Guard. Mexican forces in California reach Bakersfield before similarly running out of supplies.

##### **June 1986:**

Word of the NATO defeat at Czestochowa spreads throughout NATO forces in the rest of Poland. Desertion and a worsening supply situation, as well as unexpectedly stiff Polish civilian resistance, leads to the abandonment of the siege of Warsaw. Retreating US forces use several tactical nuclear weapons to destroy most of the city. Regrouping US forces find it more and more difficult to communicate due to lack of command and control above the division level, an increasingly precarious supply situation and hostile civilian environment, and above all mass desertion as soldiers, many of them recent conscripts, leave their units to seek the food and water their official supply chains cannot provide. The Mexican army declares the Mexican President and Congress deposed due to failure to properly support the war effort. Miguel de la Madrid, still claiming he was never legally replaced as President, puts himself at the head of this new government. Some military forces are loyal to the Congress and they are supported by worker's militias and some local self defense groups. Civil war breaks out in Mexico between *Federales* loyal to de la Madrid and *Constitutionalistas* loyal to Congress. Mexican forces in the USA are largely loyal to the *Federales* but some join the *Constitutionalistas.* The civil war means that the already tenous supply situation for Mexican forces becomes even worse, inviting attacks by guerillas. The Soviet forces in Texas, wishing no part in the Mexican conflict, remain in occupation of San Antonio.

##### **September 1986:**

Although large scale offensives have ended, fighting still continues. Some NATO and Warsaw Pact units are still trying to fight the war, although on a very small scale. Some units have broken away *en masse*. Some have joined local communities or the increasingly common bands of roving armed men and women who seek to plunder food and supplies. There are even reports of mixed units of NATO, Soviet and Polish troops joining together, either to defend themselves or to prey on hapless communities forced to provide food, supplies and sometimes even weapons. Genuine fuel is rare, and almost all vehicles have been converted to run on ethanol. In Mexico, disputes among *Constitutionalistas* lead to a radical left wing faction of revolutionary militias and indigenous activists breaking away, calling themselves the *Trabajadores.* The Mexican forces in Texas and California do not support them, but the war in Mexico is now a three way civil war.

##### **October 1986:**

The first week of October brings something just as terrifying to the inhabitants of wartorn Poland as disease, violence or nuclear strikes - snow. Although the cold snap is brief and the snow melts quickly, both meteorologists and folklorists know that snow in October means a long, cold winter. With food, shelter and fuel even less available than they were a year ago, the struggle to find a way to survive the coming winter begins...