Episode 1146: Unmaking Multiple Myths

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about a baseball earthquake in Cleveland and the Miles Mikolas and Mike Minor signings, debunk myths about NPB pitchers and Pud Galvin, and answer listener emails about Shohei Ohtani and Chief Wahoo, Ohtani loopholes, Jerry Dipoto trading his way to Ohtani, the DH and Ohtani, free-agent players prioritizing factors other than money, how the Tigers could win the 2018 World Series, Jose Altuve’s high batting averages, “hit by pitches” vs. “hits by pitch,” paying up front for a 35-year-old Mike Trout, and Adam Jones’s comments about his slow pace between pitches, plus a “Stat Blast” about extreme NPB walk-drawer Kensuke Kondo and post-emails banter about Rafael Palmeiro’s amusingly far-fetched comeback attempt.*

## Topics

* Hypothetical contract requests from Shohei Ohtani
* Jose Altuve's high batting average
* AL teams giving up the DH for Shohei Ohtani
* Detroit Tigers' World Series odds
* Kensuke Kondo's high walk rate
* Free agents prioritizing factors besides money
* Hit by pitch terminology
* Jerry Dipoto trading for Shohei Ohtani
* Offering a contract now for future Mike Trout
* Adam Jones frequent fines for pace of play delays
* Rafael Palmeiro's comeback attempt at age 53

## Banter

* Episode 1144 follow-up: In August of 2011 there was an earthquake during a Cleveland Indians game
* Miles Mikolas signed a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals after playing for three years in Japan.
* Mike Minor signed with the Texas Rangers and will be moving back into a starter role.
* Ben's research into the decline of Japanese pitchers when moving from NPB to MLB.
* Craig Wright's research found that there was little to no evidence that Pud Galvin took any testosterone substances intended to improve his performance.

## Email Questions

* Ben (San Francisco, CA): "Suppose Shohei Ohtani wants to join the Indians but says that in order to do so they must abandon the Chief Wahoo logo and possibly change the team name. You'd have up to two years to transition your team name. What do you think the Indians would do?"
* Cameron: "I don't understand how Jose Altuve consistently has such a high batting average. He is fast, but all those infield hits can't explain this. Is it that perfect launch angle just about the infielders?"
* Joseph: "What would happen if Ohtani demanded the team that signed him, assuming it's an AL team, did not use a DH when he is pitching? How much would this impact his value?"
* Joseph: "Outline the scenario that occurs where the Detroit Tigers win the World Series."
* Nick: "Do we ever foresee a time where it becomes relatively common for players to select teams without regard for money?"
* Marcus: "Hits by pitch or hit by pitches? What say you?"
* Jeff: "If Jerry Dipoto decided he was going to use his trading abilities to secure Ohtani, could he do so by trading assets to the other six finalists in the race? How much value would he need to trade away?"
* Adam: "Mike Trout's agent has found a loophole in the CBA and is currently selling Trout futures. You have the option to offer Trout a binding contract today that will kick in in 2027. What is your max offer for Trout at this age?"
* Nick: "Are we taking for granted that Ohtani wants to be offered some against the rules incentive to sign? Could he just tell teams he wants offers to be made by the book? Should some against the rules dealings come to light after he signs we know the team will get slammed with penalties but what about Ohtani?"

## Stat Blast

* Jeff used DeltaGraphs (NPB stats) to review NPB leaderboards for the previous season.
* Kensuke Kondo walked in 26% of his at-bats in the previous season.
* Kondo had the lowest swing rate in all of NPB and second lowest swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone.

## Notes

* Pud Galvin's 1884 season is the all-time record for single-season pitcher WAR. He had 20.5 WAR, starting 75 games and pitching well over 600 innings.
* This is the first time that Jeff uses the name 'Stat Blast' for the stat segment. In recent episodes he had called it 'Number Blast'.
* In response to Adam's question, Jeff would offer Mike Trout a 3 year, $90-100 million contract.
* Of 144 qualified hitters Adam Jones had the 24th slowest pace during at-bats.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1146: Unmaking Multiple Myths
* Earthquake during Cleveland Indians game
* Shohei Ohtani and MLB's Japanese Pitcher Fragility Myth by Ben Lindbergh
* The Retroactive PED Scandal of...1889 by Craig Wright
* Adam Jones interview on pace of play initiatives