Modern Handbook of Aquilan Geopolitics

*10th dawn, Thermidore, 4852*

*For scholarly purposes, Chalise Jelani*

*Agadir, Oceanic Repository of World Studies*

The 4850s are a time of skyrocketing growth in Aquila. This is evident through both the massive leaps in science and technology and the profound changes we are witnessing in population and its dynamics. The question facing every scholar worth his salt, then, is how to keep up with these changes. As we enter an era ruled by the empirical and the visual, we need proven ways to translate into data the geopolitical development of every state. We need trustworthy models that allow us to predict our current strengths and weaknesses, as well as to reliably extrapolate data about the future. Statistics has the answer.

## The Four Basic Metrics

The following four metrics are the key four included on most reputable Encyclopaedic articles, and give a general view of a particular country's state of being and way of life.

**Population Curve**

The simplest metric is a **population curve**. Population data points are laid out on a chart and connected using the most accurate regression curve possible. To recap, a regression curve is a unique function that connects data and illustrates a correlation, and the best regression curve is found by seeking the coefficient of determination (r2) closest to 1. This metric allows us to visualize population phenomena of a state over the years and predict future population size, as well as determine the population growth rate at a given time. Consider the following equation of the regression curve pictured above...

# P
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{\displaystyle P = 1559.9e^{0.0278893t}+220.549}

... where t is measured in years. This equation yields the approximate population of the given territory in thousands. However, instantaneous population growth rate can simply be calculated by finding the derivative at a point:

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{\displaystyle {dP \over dT}\|\_t = Population~growth~rate~in~year~t}

The use of the population curve, then, is simple and universal. It is the metric that allows us to visualize the scale and size of growth, infer the nature of national events, predict future needs and consumption, and discuss the demographic transition stage in which the country finds itself. However, it is worth to note that for the time being, places with weaker infrastructure or national intraconnectivity will report less reliable data and the accuracy of our predictions and conclusions may be stunted. It is wise for the contemporary social geographer to be wary of this.

**Aquilan Development Index (ADI)**

The next basic metric is the **Aquilan Development Index (ADI)**, which gauges a state's development on a scale of 1 to 100. Factors in the consideration of the ADI calculation include, from most to least weighted: infant mortality rate, literacy rate, intraconnectivity, political freedom, and interconnectivity. Additionally, there is an intuitive scale for verbalizing a country's relative development:

Most states at the moment find themselves in the "Medium" range, with a handful reaching into "High." It is predicted that, if world trade continues to flourish, many more developing countries can leap forward through the ranks. However, there still exists the issue of political freedoms and national intraconnectivity, which hinges largely on the state leaders themselves. Regardless of what we can interpolate or extrapolate, the ADI curve is proven method of gauging a country's growth momentum as well as their dedication to their residents. We should continue to pursue this as a primary analytical method and aggrandizing the prestige of the higher rankings, so that some more self-centered despots feel incentive to advance.

**Percent Agrarianism (PA)**

The third basic metric is **Percent Agrarianism, PA**, which gauges the percent of a country's labor force with employment related to the production of food. Someone with multiple jobs is still considered an agrarian worker if one of the jobs is in this field. This metric is not necessarily a measure of development; there still exist developed or progressively developing countries with high PAs or slowly decreasing PAs. However, it is a crucial economic measure and when combined with research on scientific development and national intraconnectivity it illuminates the sources of a country's sustenance as well as their efficiency. PA also works to shed light on international trade and patterns within, as countries with a lower PA are likelier to engage in trade with more agriculturally gifted countries. It is possible to use PA to calculate Agricultural Density I (AGD1), which is defined as the number of food producers per unit area;

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{\displaystyle \frac{PA\bullet Pop.}{land\ area} = PA\bullet Pop. Density =AGD1}

Both are distinct expressions of the same phenomena.

**Urban/Rural Ratio (URR)**

The final metric is the Urban/Rural Ratio, or URR, which gauges the size of the urban populace in comparison to the rural populace. Mathematically, URRs>1 denote a more urbanized society while URRs<1 denote those with a more rural-dwelling populace. Like the PA, the URR is not necessarily to be construed as a measure of development; it is much better used to analyze a country's way of life and its culture, and when combined with other metrics, it can be used to extrapolate migration and employment patterns. Depending on the fortitude of the nation's economy, it is also indicative of a country's intraconnectivity. For statistical purposes, urban residents are those who live in a square kilometer populated by at least 1,000 people. There are a number of algebraic operations available with the URR:

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{\displaystyle \frac{Urban\ Pop.}{Rural\ Pop.} = URR}

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{\displaystyle \frac{Pop.}{URR\ + \ 1} = Rural\ Pop.}

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{\displaystyle \frac{Pop\bullet URR}{URR\ + \ 1} = Urban \ Pop.}

there are multiple valuable numbers hidden as part of the URR.