The Myanmar Revolution (Internal Conflicts in Burma)

On July 25th, 2021, the Myanmar military junta sentenced four proactive democracy activists: Phyo Zeya Thaw, Kyaw Min Yu and Hui Nyo Aung to death,  the country's first execution in more than 3 decades. The killings have brought widespread international sanctions, including warnings from NATO and the United States, who reportedly said "there can be no such business as usual with this regime".

The influential Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, said that the executions are "highly reprehensible". But just how, or what happened with  this southeast Asian country?, and why is it realizing executions in the 21st century? First, we need to understand Myanmar and the revolution it's going through.

Myanmar (or Burma until 1990) is a southeast Asian nation that is greatly affected by its modern day internal conflict, the Myanmar Civil War. Since Myanmar became independent in 1948, it has experienced a series of bloody wars throughout its borderline regions. The two opposing sides are the centralized government, dominated by the Bamar (the largest ethnic group) and the armed groups primarily recruited from ethnic minorities in the country. Overtime this trend grew to over twelve "ethnic armed organizations" (or EAO's), all of them fighting against the Burmese government and the national military, the Tatmadaw.

Fortunately for the government, most ethnic groups live in mountainous terrains on the country's outback. These ethnic minorities perceive themselves and their environment as the marginalized group socially, economically and politically. This made the the regularly "oppressed" group for most of the country's history.

Some of this EAO's established a somewhat similar structure to the one of a sovereign country, and they currently administer their territories freely from the central government.

In 2015, the government and a group of several small EAO's signed a ceasefire agreement named the National Ceasefire Agreement, which prevented both, the government and the ethnic groups from opening fire against each other. The same year, 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi won the country's first-since-1990 free elections. She immediately tried to start a "national peace and reconciliation process" several times, although with little or no success. This thanks to the Tatdamaw, which, quote "perceive themselves as guardians of national unity", and continued fighting against the ethnic group whom they call separatists, even despite the ceasefire act and the government's various orders to stop the conflict.

This, in great measure is because the military has been the mayor political and economical force in the country since 1962. This is why top-ranked generals started a liberalization process in 2010 which have since brought benefits like free elections, freedom of the press and the building of a better government.

On February 25th, 2021 after the National League of Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi won the elections yet again in November of the last year, 2020 in that time.

By this time in the war and with all the national and international pressure the country is facing from NATO and ASEAN after the killings and the revolution, it is "highly unrealistic" that negotiations for peace can be opened between the military and the ethnic groups. Both sides agreed in cooperating in mantainingpeace throughout the nation's borders and are currently operating over a "zero-sum" logic, perceiving the conflict as crucial for the country's future.

The lack of political incentives to compromise each side, and the generals being unwilling to abandon power by force after a military coup has brought uncertainty and instability to Myanmar's future.