Iceland Crisis

The **Iceland Crisis** was a diplomatic standoff between **Poland-Lithuania** and the **Kingdom of Snocbar** over who controlled the island of Iceland. It was caused when Snocbar established an outpost in Western Iceland after Poland had announced its jurisdiction over the entirety of Iceland. This was the major geopolitical event of the 1050s decade and is notable for involving the international community as this conflict was thought to be a potential cause of a world war. It started with the Polish colonisation of Eastern Iceland in 1048 (day 25) and ended with the signing of the **Treaty of Iceland** in 1056 (day 29), though the terms of the treaty are yet to take effect.

## Iceland Before Colonisation

Iceland has been a well-known location in the world of Oilycraft Season 3 since the founding of the server. The Korvămotkă Chronicle attributes the server's foundation to an eruption in Iceland's volcanic region. Despite being outside the claim limits, it has been a region of interest for several of the world's inhabitants, including the traveller Noorullah who claims to be the first to have reached Iceland in his travels. Since then, several others have visited the island and left their mark through signs or structures. Some of these include: King Diego of Safineis, King Luxtay II of Gedania, King Tine Dorcha of Munster, King NeonFish of the Kingdom of Middle Earth, Cardinal Violett of Éire (later Polabia) among others. Of note is the "Flag area" in the southwest of the island where large Victorian and Munsterian Flags are located. These are the result of those countries' respective expeditions to the island. In 1030 (Day 16), Isopod of Nariño described Iceland as the "Antarctica of Oilycraft" given its fame, numerous expeditions, and the unspoken consensus among the international community that it would remain free from any nation's control.

## Lead-up to the Crisis

### Polish Colony

Ammaren and Asmo (Igngath) of Tavastia had been intent on securing the control of Iceland for some time, but they did not have the men or the resources to do so. However, their overlord Verak of Poland-Lithuania was aware that in 1048 (Day 25), nations with 5 or more residents would be allowed to claim outposts outside of the claim limit core-area of the server. As such, Verak offered to colonise Iceland for them. HIs motivations were largely based on the strategic value of a colony in the northwest of the map with access to the North Sea, as well as the Tavastians' proposed plans for the island.

In early 1048, Poland became the first nation to establish an outpost outside of the core area, claiming large swathes of Eastern Iceland. The king of Munster was the first to publicly call attention to this. In response, Verak formally declared that Poland affirmed its jurisdiction over the entirety of Iceland and that it was not to be contested by any other nation, even if their colony currently only controlled the eastern portion of Iceland. This declaration had the desired effect of securing its sovereignty over its newfound colony and dissuading other major powers from contesting it. Shortly thereafter, several nations joined the **Scramble for Colonies outside the Core Zone.**

### Snocbar's Intervention

Having been founded in 1040, relatively late in the server's history, and being confined to a few islands on the northwest edge of the Core Zone, the Kingdom of Snocbar, based on the Faroe Islands, sought to expand but was aware of the limited space they had left to colonise. In response to this, they began a policy reclaiming land from the sea in order to expand their territory, and colonised the Hebrides, which incurred a warning from nearby Nariño. Seeking to peacefully settle the matter of its claims with Nariño, Snocbar agreed to become a vassal of Victoria and join the **Council of Nations.** Not long afterwards, they delimited their borders in the Hebrides with Nariño and joined the **North Sea Defensive Alliance** of which the nations of the British Isles were already a part of (except for Zetland).

Nevertheless, still seeking more land, Snocbar attempted to claim territory in Iceland, a natural colonial target given its size and proximity, but were unsuccessful as it lay beyond the Core Zone. In 1046, King Dwergenkoning of Snocbar asked Chancellor Vladwick of Occitania when the Core Zone would expand, to which the latter responded that it never would. At the time, neither was aware that very soon, nations with 5 or more residents would be able to claim outposts outside this area. Believing that it had no more good options of where to expand, Snocbar continued on its policy of land reclamation, eventually transforming the Faroe Islands into an almost perfect rectangle of dirt in the North Sea.

However, as soon as the International Community became aware of Poland's colony on Eastern Iceland and understood the nation-size and outpost allowance rule, Snocbar, which had recently reached a population of 5 members, immediately mobilised its forces to establish a colony on western Iceland, which they succeeded under Halo and Captain in 1052.

## The beginning of the Crisis

1052 was an *annus nefastus* for international diplomacy. As the Oland insurgency was reaching its most turbulent moment, Snocbar was settling its colony in Western Iceland and claiming land that was broadly regarded as a neutral heritage site by the international community.

### Munsterian Condemnation

In establishing their colony of **Faroese Iceland**, Snocbar claimed the **Flag Area** in southwestern Iceland which supported the flags of Victoria and Munster, as well as signs from other travellers who had visited the site. This area was considered to have a high symbolic and cultural importance by the international community, especially by the nations of the British Isles, who believed it should remain as state-free cultural heritage. When Snocbar enforced its rule over the Flag area, several nations were outraged. This led the Kingdom of Munster to issue an official condemnation:

> ***Ríocht Mhumhain officially condems the acts of @Halo Fox | Hebrides (Snocbar) and Constituents over the actions of claiming the west of Iceland***
> *- Tine Dorcha, King of Munster*
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The condemnation divided the Faroese court. On the one hand, there were those like Halo arguing that as the land was unclaimed, it was fair game for them to have taken control over it regardless of its previous structures. This faction even offered free passage for Munster and Victoria to come to the Flag Area and take down their flags to rebuild them elsewhere. Others, like King Dwergenkoning, admitted that they had not known the rich history of Iceland before their colonial enterprise and offered to keep that area neutral and allow others to build their flags there.

Bapo of Frisia would make a statement reflecting the international community's view, relaying that it was unjust for the Faroese to have claimed the Flag Area when there was so much more unclaimed land around.

This phase of the crisis was soon resolved as Dwergenkoning's faction won out and they decided to unclaim the Flag area, returning it to its neutral international status and claiming other parts of Western Iceland in compensation. During the devolution of the Flag Area, Dwergenkoning expressed his appreciation for the history of Iceland and declared Snocbar to be a peaceful, friendly nation, which would work towards solving disputes over their colony. With this, Tine Dorcha retracted his condemnation.

## Polish Ultimatum

In early 1054 (Day 28), Poland finally decided to take action concerning the Iceland situation and issued a public ultimatum to Snocbar. They demanded that the Faroese colony be relocated elsewhere, preferably Greenland, under the threat of war:

> *Poland-Lithuania does not recognize the claims in Western Iceland and request them to be abandoned as soon as possible or for the members of Snocbar to reach an agreement with us regarding the future of the island. If they're looking for somewhere to expand we recommend Greenland but they should leave Iceland lest a conflict starts*
> *- Emperor Drakengard (formerly* Dragon*) of Poland-Lithuania.*
>
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The strong-worded Polish declaration immediately escalated tensions as it evinced that open war was under consideration. This was of major international concern because of the current alliance system in place in the world; Poland was a major power with several vassals and Snocbar was a member of the NSDA and vassal to Victoria, there was therefore a serious risk that the crisis over Iceland could develop into a full-blown world war. The International Community's outlook on the developing crisis can be summed up in a comment from Luxtay II of Gedania:

> This war is absolutely hysterical; two nations thousands of blocks away from each other fighting over an area outside of the claim limit
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King Neonfish of Middle Earth would later add to this feeling of absurdity in reminding all that Iceland was nothing more than *"a barren area with only ice"*. To which Drakengard responded that he loved ice. Tine Dorcha would later comment that, when asked about how the world came to an end, people would respond that *"it all started over a block of ice meant for another person unrelated to the situation".*

After protests from the international community on the discord server, the Emperor subsequently elaborated his position in an international forum:

After this exchange, President Braden remarked that Scorn had not been in any war yet, which to some like Pierre, was deeply *shocking* given Scorn's former warmonger reputation. Chancellor Vladwick of Occitania clarified that this was due to the clauses of the Aragorn-Zelenskyy Pact between Scorn and Poland-Lithuania and added rather reassuringly that *"as long as both Poland and Scorn respect this, the Snocbar Iceland Incident will not lead to WW1"*. However, King Tine Dorcha of Munster pointed out that the Pact only prohibited a direct conflict between Poland and Scorn but did not stop any war whatsoever, leaving the possibility of a world war still very much alive. Emperor Drakengard then further clarified that the Pact did not stop a war from happening but it would block Scorn from joining it against Poland. However, as Tine Dorcha remarked: *"It would still be York, Victoria, Nariño (and Snocbar) versus Poland and vassals"*. Hence, any war over Iceland would not be as global, but in Drakengard's own words: *"Yeah, still a big war"*.

In further comment about Scorn-Poland relations and the Aragorn-Zelenskyy Pact's significance to a potential conflict, Chancellor Vladwick elaborated that:

> It would mean that no direct conflict would occur, but a Vietnam-style proxy war is definitely still possible, though I doubt we want an all-out-war over iceland
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Sensing that the international community was becoming ever more worried about the prospect of global war, Emperor Drakengard reiterated his position in a softer and clearer tone:

> I would like to avoid it (war) but we are not giving up Iceland, we are willing to partially fund a resettlement to Greenland for Snocbar, but they must leave Iceland. Yeah, WW1 over Iceland would be truly one of the moments of all time (chuckles to lighten the mood and calm the audience)
>
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The Emperor then called the attention of Halo from the Faroese delegation to respond to the Polish ultimatum as swiftly as possible.

## The Alliance System and Entanglements

Tensions continued to escalate in 1054, and the risk of war was still increasing, as perceived by the international community. Braden of the Hellenic Republic observed that, contrary to Chancellor Vladwick's claims, the Aragorn-Zelenskyy Pact would not stop direct conflict between Poland and Scorn because it would likely be broken if Poland actually declared war on Snocbar given the intricate alliance system of the British Isles.

    Snocbar was a vassal of Victoria, which meant that Victoria would fight for it if Poland attacked Snocbar. Victoria would call in its allies in the English Confederation and Council of Nations, so York and Nariño would also join Snocbar's side. The Kingdom of Munster, part of the Council but not the Confederation, was the keystone, as if it decided to support Snocbar, it had the right to invite its ally Scorn on Snocbar's side too. In theory, Scorn would have to deny the invitation due to the terms of the Aragorn-Zelenskyy Pact, but in practice it might be incentivised to break the Pact in order to prevent Poland from conquering another major power, Victoria. However, even if Munster were unwilling to join, Victoria could have invited Scorn as well because of a previous alliance between both nations. If Scorn were to join against Poland, it would likely bring in its allied nations of Occitania, the Artificer's Guild, the Roman Empire, and Syracuse, into the war.

Moreover, both Snocbar and Victoria could chose to invoke the NSDA's protection clauses onto their side, thus potentially dragging Danskia, Oppland (Lom), Gotland, and Gedania into the war.

Similarly, along with its multiple vassals, Poland could invite its ally the Dacian Kingdom into the war, and Poland's vassal Venice could invite the other members of the Italian Alliance, mainly Arboria and Safineis, into the war on Poland's side, rendering the conflict over Iceland truly a world war. One interesting case, however, would be Frisia, which was a member of the NSDA and a Polish Protectorate at the same time, so it is unknown whether and what side it would take in the potential war.

Another curious case is that of the Ottoman Empire and the Hellenic League which were technically allied to Dacia, a Polish ally, Middle Earth, a Polish Vassal, and Scorn at the same time. It is therefore also hard to predict what they're policy would be in the advent of global war, but their foreign policy thus far suggests they would have favoured neutrality.

It is thus clear that the existence of the complex Alliance System led to much speculation that Iceland Crisis could escalate to a global war. While some favoured the prospect of all-out-war, most were unwilling to fight over what they perceived to be an irrelevant colony. It thus became paramount for these members of the international community to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis at hand. As Chancellor Vladwick summed up in his pronouncement about Scorn's position:

> To be honest, what needs to happen is a Council of Nations and Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Congress to settle the dispute. I speak for Scorn & Co. when I say that we would rather not have to get involved.
>
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Along these lines, Pope Pollo of the Potatoist Church offered to mediate the dispute in a *"Potatoist Council of Nations"* as most nations in question and in the world were Potatoist at the time. Unfortunately, it seems his proposal was mostly ignored.