2018 Power Rankings-Week 11

## LOC Honors

Yes, there is a section before the introduction. That's how important it is!

Friday, December 21st, we will be hosting the first ever LOC Honors night in Rhode Island. Location to be determined. Official invite to follow. Save the date. Prepare to be honored.

## Introduction

An absolutely wild week ten has the entire league on high alert as three weeks remain and every single playoff position is still up for grabs.

Both 2-7 teams upset their playoff contending opponents. In doing so, it put the defending three-peat champion on the brink of missing the playoffs and knocked a powerhouse back down to .500. Two Monday Night Football comebacks made Giants vs. 49ers one of the most exciting games of the fantasy season.

MMMS had only scored 127 points and was down 57.51 to Browns4You. That is until Browns4You went to bed early, allowing Breida and Kittle to combine for 61.58 points, enough to mark the biggest comeback of the 2018 season and possibly the biggest upset of the year. A chance to grab a bye spot for Browns4You has now turned into a fight for survival.

RIPDab, meanwhile, has shown more fight than expected. They bested rival The Shotti Bunch for the second time this season. It's the first time that RIPDab has ever swept the season series against TSB. He is now 5-0 against TSB when scoring over 250 points and 1-11 when scoring under 250.

This is the latest in the season that Shotti has ever been at .500 and he is one win away from tying his worst record in franchise history. He has also scored below 200 five times. That's already two games more than they've ever scored below 200 in a single season.

So RIPDab is at 3-7. Normally, a 3-7 team is thinking about next season. But after a strong win in week ten, RIP is the third highest scorer in the league and has a shot at finishing 6-7, which could be enough to punch a ticket to the Festival of Champions.

## Playoffs??

Mathematically, everyone is still in striking distance of the playoffs. The margin for error is razor thin for five teams.

### Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. These take into account scoring differentials between Pain Train/GBM and the rest of the league, hence PT needing 3 wins to guarantee finishing in the top 4.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

### Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Ten Scenarios

* **Garoppoblow Me** clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by one of the following teams: Browns4You, Paddock 9, The Shotti Bunch
* **Pain Train WOO WOO** clinches a playoff spot with:
	+ **Win** *or*
	+ **Loss** by Browns4You and The Shotti Bunch
* **RIPDab** will be eliminated with:
	+ Loss *and*win by The Shotti Bunch or Browns4You
* Bell of Da Ball will be eliminated with:
	+ Loss and win by The Shotti Bunch or Paddock 9
* ma ma momma said will be eliminated with:
	+ Loss and win by two of the following teams: The Shotti Bunch, Paddock 9, Browns4You

## Longest Win Streaks of All-Time (by Team)

With week ten wins, Sweet Dee and GBM both tie their longest ever regular season win streaks. They face off this week, with the winner setting a new high water mark for consecutive wins and the loser having to wait until next year to try and break their own reacord.

I looked back to see what the longest win streaks have been for every active team in LOC history.

\*championship year

## Survivor

Okay, so we're still going with survivor? YOU WANNA GET NUTS? LETS GET NUTS.

## 3-7 Team History

Prior to this season, 10 teams have been 3-7. Of those 10, 2012's Why am I doing this was the only one to go undefeated the rest of the way. But their reward was great. They became the only 3-7 team to ever make playoffs.

 2
 3
 4

Can RIPDab repeat 2012 history yet again?

## 5-5 Team History

23 teams have been 5-5 in LOC history, including the four from this season. It's the most popular record in the LOC, and a sign of the balance that comes with being a contender in the League of Champions. The best 5-5 team ever was 2013's Browns4You team that posted 2304.35 points. That beats out the second best 5-5 team, Browns4You's current squad.

 10
 5
 3

Judging by this, the likelihood of a team going either undefeated or winless is 21%. The one team to go to 8-5 was RIPIDab in 2015. This is good news for Dab, who needs at least two teams to go either 1-2 or 0-3 in order to overtake them for the 6 seed.
It's worth it to note that although just 90% of 5-5 teams that landed at 7-6 made playoffs, no 7-6 teams have missed the playoffs in the 10-team era.

## 6-4 Team History

This year there are two 6-4 teams for the first time in LOC history (weird fact #1,563). Prior to 2018, only 6 teams have been 6-4. They have all made the playoffs. One team, Sweet Dee in 2015, came close to missing the Festival when they finished the season 0-3. Lucky for them, they won the tie-breaker with 7th place JarJar Stinks. JJS had almost 300 fewer points.

 2
 2
 1

While the odds are in their favor, I wouldn't suggest to Papa or Dee that they let up on the gas, especially since they face off in a blockbuster week 13 rivalry game.

## 7-3 Team History

It feels good to be 7-3. Of the 11 7-3 teams in season's past, five of them ended up with a first round bye. Even those that didn't made the playoffs, putting Pain Train and GBM on cruise control for the remainder of the regular season.

 5
 5
 0

GBM has point advantages on everyone, though Duck Punchers is close behind. If they win one more, they almost certainly lock up at least a bye spot. Pain Train can do so with two more wins.

## Power Rankings

### 1(2). Garoppoblow Me (7-3)

* APT: 4-3
* L3: 760.01 (1st)
* RS: 12-18

Obviously this team is very good. They are on pace for 3024.19 points, which would be 7th highest all time. At 51-50, the team is above .500 in the overall regular season standings for the first time since week 7 of 2013. So let's talk about what's not good: the bench. GBM has zero room for error, and an injury to a key component could unravel the whole damn thing. The good news is they traded away Cooper Kupp, who promptly tore his ACL. But can he avoid the injury bug forever? Science says no.

### 2(1). Pain Train WOO WOO (7-3)

* APT: 5-2
* L3: 633.83 (7th)
* RS: 14-16

Choo Choo on that.

### 3(3). WhatCanBrownsDo4You? (5-5)

* APT: 2-4
* L3: 662.31 (6th)
* RS: 14-16

The more research I do, the more I'm beginning to realize the long and painful history of Browns4You. Dating back all the way to 2011, when they saw their Glory Bowl 1 hopes slip away as Matt Ryan completed pass after pass after pass for Papa's Posse, amassing a whopping 34 completions in the era where completions were worth a whole point and ultimately sending Papa to a relatively narrow 18.07-point victory. Since then, he's scored the highest points in a game by a losing team both in the regular season (now unseated by Ball) and in the post-season (a record that still stands). They've also had MNF defeats all season long, thrice to the DiGennaro Boys.

### 4(5). Sweet Dee (6-4)

* APT: 3-2
* L3: 668.76 (4th)
* RS: 20-10 (Toughest)

Sweet Dee is having the best season of their career. They are on pace to break their franchise scoring record and single-season win record. They're outscoring over half the league in November, the most important time to get hot. Lost in the buzz about Kamara/Thomas for GBM, Sweet Dee has to be in the running for Keeper of the Year with Andrew Luck. He is 9th in the league in scoring, 8th among QBs, and was drafted 141st overall (the last QB taken in the draft).

### 5(6). Papa's Posse (6-4)

* APT: 2-4
* L3: 682.68 (3rd)
* RS: 16-14

A MattJinx that Papa should be thankful for. Last week I remarked that Papa had the wins, but didn't have the points. Well, that all changed after a wild 291.40-281.72 point win over Bell of da Ball in which all Papa needed (again) was a little help from the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Exorcising his Alfred Morris demons from earlier in the season, Papa got 12.70 from Goodwin. This is truly an unbelievable score for a team that started Wendell Smallwood, Maurice Harris, Chris Godwin, and Danny Amendola.

### 6(4). Paddock 9 (5-5)

* APT: 2-3
* L3: 577.12 (9th)
* RS: 13-17

Paddock 9 is now 0-3 since Commish levied the MattJinx on him by declaring a Jurassic Renaissance. They are 5-5 for the second straight year and have had the second worst scoring performance between weeks 8-10. Speaking of .500, Their season series with Sweet Dee has now been tied 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5. It's the second time in LOC history that no team has successfully defended a series lead through 10 games.The defense and special teams decision making for Paddok this season has been particularly cringe-worthy. They have scored just 144 defensive points, a whole 134 behind the league leader (Papa's Posse).

### 7(8). RIPDab (3-7)

* APT: 0-6
* L3: 699.09 (2nd)
* RS: 15-15

RIPDab has broken 200 a league best 9 times this season. They are the third highest scoring team this season and second only to GBM over the last three weeks. Yet they have just three wins to show for it. Frustration may have numbed Dab management at this point, but a win this week against reeling Paddock 9 might begin a thaw that could ultimately lead to the most unlikely run in LOC history.

### 8(7). The Shotti Bunch (5-5)

* APT: 4-2
* L3: 598.26 (8th)
* RS: 14-16

Shotti's margin of defeat this season is an astronomical 68.04 points per game. He was handed the biggest blowout of the week for the second week in a row. Unlike in prior years, the health of his first two picks have caused a point-shortage, and moving away frmo the run-heavy offense that has defined this dynasty is proving to be a difficult obstacle to overcome. Now 0-2 in the 2018 Gauntlet of the Gods, they now face the three former champions for a shot at the Festival and a title defense.

### 9(10). Bell of Da Ball (3-7)

* APT: 0-6
* L3: 666.24 (5th)
* RS: 17-13

Bell of Da Ball topples a record that has stood since 2011. They posted the highest ever regular season score for a losing team. 281.72 takes down Browns4You record 275.43 points in a losing effort in 2011. It still falls short of the all-time record. In 2013 Browns4You scored 84.46 points in a postseason loss. It’s been a long history of disappointment for Browns4You, but the two seasons of Ball's career have been even more miserable. A of 4pm Tuesday, Le'Veon Bell has to be considered the biggest draft bust of all time at this point.

10(9). ma ma momma said (3-7)

* APT: 2-4
* L3: 552.51 (10th)
* RS: 15-15

There won't be many highlights for momma when they look back at 2018, but this victory over Browns4You will certainly be one of them. I don't want to say that MMMS owes me or anything, but I did lay the groundwork for this victory when I wrote last week: "This Glory Bowl rematch has all the makings of a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Browns game. It's mostly about padding stats for these two teams..." I guess it was more like a Falcons vs. Browns game.

## Matchups of the Week

All five matchups have major playoff implications this week, with outcomes from every game affecting the other 8 teams in the league. What craziness awaits us in week 11?

### (1st) Garoppoblow Me vs. (3rd) Sweet Dee

Series Record: 3-3

This decisive seventh game in the season series will pit two of the leagues top teams against one another in a rematch of the 239.08-187.88 blowout that Sweet Dee won earlier this season. At 2-3, things were looking dire for Garoppoblow Me. They haven't lost since. While this is the game of the week for plenty of reasons, they biggest might be the unavoidable fact that this is 100% coming down to Monday Night Football, where Jared Godd and Robert Woods will face off against the incomparable Todd Gurley.

### (6th) Paddock 9 vs. (8th) RIPDab

Series Record: 5-5

Remember earlier when I said there were only two matchups that have made it to 10 games without a team successfully defending their series lead? Well this is the other one. Paddock 9 and RIPDab have gone back and forth for eight years, tied at 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and now 5-5. But in all their years, this is the most important regular season matchup ever. Paddock 9 has never scored over 200 in back-to-back showdowns with RIPDab, and they broke 200 earlier this season in a week 5 victory. By sweeping the season series, they would eliminate RIPDab from playoff contention. Similar to the matchup of the week, I don't see how this doesn't come down to MNF. Paddock 9 will unleash Mahomes, Cooks, and Tyreek Hill. RIPDab will have to have a very large lead in order to hold off the onslaught of Paddock 9's air attack.

### (4th) Papa's Posse vs. (7th) The Shotti Bunch

Series Record: 8-1 (TSB leads)

My, how the tables have turned. While there is no question that TSB has dominated this matchup (1-8 lifetime with 0 games below 200), there is little doubt that the team just isn't in rhythm this season. Papa owns a 69.76 point advantage in the standings and has a game in hand. If they lose, they just have to lose by less than that number in order to stay in a playoff spot. But they're not about to play defense. With bye weeks coming to an end, Papa will have all his weapons available. Shotti is only projected to lose this one by 3.

### (5th) WhatCanBrownsDo4You? vs. (9th) Bell of Da Ball

Series Record: 3-0 (Browns4You leads)

I'm not going to make this mistake again. Last week, Browns4You couldn't handle a 2-win team. Maybe they'll have better luck with Bell of da Ball, who has 3 wins but is coming off not only a devestating loss but also a lockerroom controversy as Le'Veon is no longer with the team. Ball is due for a comedown after dropping over 270 points. Can Browns4You pounce on the opportunity and get themselves back on track? The bye is still up for grabs, but so is 7th place.

### (2nd) Pain Train WOO WOO vs. (10th) ma ma momma said

Series Record: 6-5 (PT leads)

You wouldn't think that 2nd place Pain Train would be the team coming in here riding a losing streak and licking their wounds, but that's where we're at in the final of the five matchups going down this week. Between injuries and byes, this looks like a momma loss. But like I said, we can't underestimate these 3-7 teams. They are as strong as the best of 'em on any given Sunday.