Episode 1193: Unicorn on the Cobb

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Alex Cobb’s surprising windfall with the Orioles and the ever-present overlap between baseball and social issues, follow up on non-throwing outfielders, and answer listener emails about challengers to Mike Trout’s email-episode throne (and Trout’s spring training strikeout-less streak), whether tanking is actually bad for baseball or becoming more common, what might make Clayton Kershaw opt not to opt out, players whom cutting-edge stats overrate, how hitters can discourage teams from shifting against them, whether Alex Rodriguez stood out for beating up on bad pitchers, and the possibility of a pitcher getting a loss and a save in the same game, plus a Stat Blast on the best-projected teams and rapid roster improvements.*

## Topics

* Non-throwing outfielders
* Mike Trout's Effectively Wild email throne
* Is tanking become more common, and is that bad?
* Best projected teams by WAR
* Clayton Kershaw opt-out
* Players beating the shift
* Players overrated by Sabermetrics
* Alex Rodriguez vs. good pitching
* Pitcher save & loss hypothetical

## Banter

* Alex Cobb's 4 year, $57 million deal
* Baltimore Orioles offseason moves & payroll
* Overlap of baseball & social issues
* Minor leaguer pay
* Impact of strength of schedule

## Email Questions

* Kazuto Yamazaki: "In final years of his career, the Hanshin Tigers' Tomoaki Kanemoto was notorious for being in the lineup and playing left field despite his complete inability to make a throw. Having sustained a severe shoulder injury in a pre-season game in 2010, Kanemoto was unable to toss a baseball even 90 feet when the season started. However, since he hadn't missed an inning of a regular season game in the previous 10 years, the manager kept having him patrol left field (Hanshin is in the non-DH Central League) to keep the streak going before eventually snapping it at 1,492 games two weeks into the season. The streak was later recognized as a Guiness World Record. In those two weeks and the times where he did play in the field in the following three seasons, watching him try to make a throw was painful."
* Damian: "When will Trout be overtaken as the most emailed about player and how old/at what level is the player at currently?"
* Doug: "There was a recent quote from Jerry Dipoto that went something like "you could argue there is more competition to get the No. 1 pick in the draft than to win the World Series." Based on this comment, I wanted to do a little research to see how many teams were closer to getting the 1st pick in the draft than they were to making the playoffs. I found that 9 teams were closer to getting the no. 1 overall pick than they were to getting the second wild card spot in their league. There was obviously a bit of hyperbole is his statement but there were almost as many teams last year closer to that first pick as there are teams that make the playoffs. There were also a few teams (Orioles, Athletics, and Blue Jays) that were very close to the no. 1 pick tipping point. Will Jerry Dipoto be right and we will have a season with more teams closer to the No. 1 pick than they are to getting a wildcard spot? How boring or good would that season be? And any ideas on how to make sure Jerry Dipoto's prophecy isn't fulfilled?"
* Eric: "We’ve discussed (well...you’ve discussed, I’ve just listened) what would have to happen for Jason Heyward or David Price to opt out of their contracts. On the flip side, how bad would Clayton Kershaw have to be this year to NOT opt out?"
* Sean: "With teams emphasizing optimal defensive shifting perhaps more now than any other period of time, I was wondering what you think the threshold is for how many times a player could beat “his shift” and still have opposing teams trying to use it. For example, if Anthony Rizzo started the season 30/30 hitting the ball against the shift, do you think you would immediately see teams abandon the shift against him? Do you think it would happen in waves as more “forward thinking” teams came to this realization? At what point would teams start to see the player’s success as more than a fluke, but rather as an intentional strategy?
* Shawn: "In the quant-y fangraphs world, posts on players use highly quantifiable numbers like team-control years, EV, xFIP, and a host of other stats that are not used by most traditional outlets so player profiles vary. Let's do some introspection! Strictly within the sabermetric circle, who do you guys think is the most overrated player in the game today?"
* Joel: "Today on the Braves-Astros broadcast, one of the commentators used Alex Rodriguez as an example of a player that didn't hit top pitchers well, saying "He's an example of a guys that's going to feast on your 3-4-5 guys, going 10-13, then occasionally show out against your aces." Is there any evidence that that is true or was he talking out of his ass? Who is an example of someone who really did that?"
* Dylan: "It's May...Team A is playing Team B. The game starts, and Jimmy Smith comes out of the bullpen in the 5th inning. He blows the lead for the team that eventually loses (Team A). What happens in this game however, is that it starts to pour immediately after he gives up the lead. The game is postponed to a later date in August. On July 31st, Jimmy Smith is traded to Team B, where he is promoted to the closer position. When the game resumes in August, is Jimmy Smith allowed to pitch for Team B, and close the game, therefore giving himself the loss and the save for that game?"

## Stat Blast

* Jeff looks at the best ever projected teams by WAR and how they actually finished. He then looks at the best and worst 5 year changes in WAR for a single team.
* The 2018 Astros are projected for 55 WAR, tied for the 42nd best ever projection.
* Since 1998 only six teams have ever finished as good as the Astros project. The 2016 Cubs had 58.6 WAR, and the 2017 Indians had 59 WAR.
* From 1975 to 1979 the Athletics went from 50.8 to -1.7 WAR.

## Notes

* Jeff thinks that Trout will get the most mentions in emails for at least another three years.
* Mike Trout has not struck out in 44 spring training plate appearances.
* A listener question in Episode 265 asked about a scenario similar to Doug's question, in which all NL teams with a winning record were on track to make the playoffs.
* Ben & Jeff think that a back injury would be the only reason for him to not opt out of his contract after this year.
* Jeff names Yasmani Grandal and Rhys Hoskins as players overrated by advanced stats. Ben mentions Tyler Chatwood and Nick Castellanos.
* In his career Alex Rodriguez had a tOPS+ of 87 against power pitchers and a tOPS+ of 113 against finesse pitchers. This is close to the 2017 league tOPS+ averages of 84 and 112 against power and finesse pitching, respectively.
* The Ringer MLB show is returning, Ben will be using its original theme music at the end of Effectively Wild episodes.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1193: Unicorn on the Cobb
* Tomoaki Kanemoto throwing video
* Tanking Hasn't Killed Baseball's Hope and Faith by Ben Lindbergh
* Here Are the Projected 2018 Strengths of Schedule by Jeff Sullivan
* Economics of Playing In Minors Prompts Cardinals Prospect to Retire by Trey Nielsen
* Can you guess what Mike Trout hasn't done this spring? by Jeff Fletcher