Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation - Verbatim

1. DIFFUSION 2.
3. Diffusion
Process by which
A new idea is communicated
Or spread in a social group
And becomes an innovation
Diffusion is a type of social change
Diffusion is behind “implementation”
4. Diffusion
M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea , not an innovation!
5. Diffusion
Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation!
(training process, adoption scheme)‏
6. Innovation idea #21
All innovation requires a diffusion process.
Social change is the result of this process.
Otherwise, it's just a good idea.
7. Social change
8. Social change
9. Social change
10. Videos SUV / mobile phone videos
11. Innovation idea #22
The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates opportunities and incentivates certain behaviours over others
12. Change: co-causality
From social to individual:
Generation of new ideas
From individual to social:
Evaluation of new ideas
13. Diffusion
“ The process by which new ideas become real solutions”
Solutions available to social groups
Adopters' evaluation
Adoption or rejection decisions
14. Diffusion
Diffusion is uncertain:
Lack of predictability, structure, and information
15. Diffusion
Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly:
Even when they have obvious, proven advantages
16. Innovation idea #23
The diffusion rate of a new idea is only marginally related to how good or bad it is.
Many other issues can become crucial: politics, culture, “timing”, etc
17. Diffusion
“ Perceived newness”
It matters little whether or not an idea is objectively new
20. $500 dollars
22. Diffusion curves
Sigmoid function
S-shape curves
time: cumulative adoption number of adopters
23. Diffusion curves
‘ Tipping point’
At about 10 to 25% adoption\*
‘ Inflection point’
At about 75 to 90% adoption\*
Technology clusters
Hard to distinguish start/end of diffusion
24. time: cumulative adoption types of adopters
25. The S-shape curve
Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off
Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down again
26. Critical mass
Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining
That means:
“ Diffusion continues no matter what”
27. the foundation sold 55 million bracelets in 2005, says www.livestrong.org “ Rubber bracelets are today's version of bumper stickers, buttons, ribbons or flags” http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271282-3/bsection/Livestrong\_bracelets\_began\_healthy\_trend/
28. Adopter categories ‘ Innovators ’ Early adopters Mass adopters Late adopters Laggards
29. Innovation idea #24
People fall into different adopter categories for different types of products.
Clichés are not useful: aim to understand and design for your target adopters
30. Enabling strategies
Target opinion leaders
Shape individual’s perceptions of the innovation
Target early adopters first, but do not focus only on them
Provide incentives for adoption
Promote negotiation and interpretations
Any design strategies?
32. Varying critical mass, same end result Constant critical mass, different end result
33. Critical Mass of Head-Up Displays?
34. Characteristics of innovations
Relative advantage
Perceived as a better solution
Compatibility
Perceived as consistent with values, experience, needs
Complexity
Perceived as difficult to understand and use
Trialability
Experimented with on a limited basis
Observability
Results are visible to others
35. Innovation idea #25
Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have:
- greater perceived advantages
- greater compatibility
- greater trialability
- greater observability
- less complexity
36. Perceived advantages
37. Trialability
38. Observability
39. Compatibility
40. Compatibility
41. Complexity
43. Uncertainty
Adopters’ experience
Influence perception of next innovation
Competitors
Non-intended uses
Social and cultural events
Reinterpretations or re-inventions
44. Re-invention
Degree to which an innovation
Is changed or modified
By third-party (users, mkt, competition)‏
During diffusion
And implementation
At least some degree of re-invention occurs at the implementation stage
For many innovations
And by many adopters
45. Reinvention

## References

1. ↑ Sosa, R. (2011, March 10). Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation. Retrieved March 23, 2015, from http://www.slideshare.net/rsm/diffusion-adopters-and-innovation?qid=1aa9d31f-c501-4752-8aac-7ce513c14f56&v=default&b=&from\_search=4