Episode 1187: The Baseball Bounce Pass

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Rays' latest Tommy John surgery victim and the team's potential plans for a four-man rotation, players' decreasing IP and PA totals, exhibition-game walk-off celebrations, Marlins spring-training invitees, and Jon Lester's new bounce pass to first base, then answer listener emails about lower-level clutchness, how quickly changes to the ball would be noticed, Shohei Ohtani's underrated offensive ability, how teams could spend their way out of scrutiny by the Players Association, whether teams should swap outfielders in certain parks, how much MLB might expand in the future, Jason Heyward opt-out scenarios, a non-throwing Mike Trout, the value of a player who doesn't fly for road trips, and how much experience helps players, plus a Stat Blast about league-wide spring-training rates so far.*

## Topics

* When clutch matters
* Baseball change hypothetical
* How would teams solve the MLBPA grievance?
* Why are people down on Shohei Ohtani's hitting?
* How much can baseball expand and still be recognizable?
* Under what circumstances would Jason Heyward opt out?
* Rotating outfielders to fit specific stadiums
* Player value if they refuse to fly
* If Mike Trout could not throw how much value would he lose?
* Value of career experience to hypothetical rookie Mike Trout =

## Banter

* Jose De Leon will need Tommy John surgery. Will the Rays have a 4-man rotation?
* Is the slow off-season a function of the players getting fewer innings or plate appearances?
* Phillip Evans walk off grand slam in spring training split squad game: how do you celebrate this?
* Jon Lester's new bounce pass to 1st
* The Miami Marlins pitching staff game

## E-Mail Questions

* Anthony: "When does clutch matter? It's pretty well-established among analytically-inclined fans and teams that "clutchness" at the MLB level isn't really a separator because of a selection bias. At the same time, there must be some level of baseball at which certain players are mentally affected by big moments. I'm curious as to where you think that cutoff would be? Presumably not at AA or AAA, but could you see a real disparity in players' clutch performance in A-ball? College? If there is a real discrepancy at the low levels of the minors, should scouts or teams mark down an A-ball player for a .500 OPS with runners on base, for example, in a way that no one should/would at the MLB level?"

* Kieran: "Annoyed by everyone talking about the surge in home runs and not leaving him alone, Evil Rob Manfred tells Rawlings to switch tracks: keep the balls “within specs”, but at the very bottom of the allowable range instead of the top of the range that we seem to have now. How long would it take to notice that something is up? How long until you were sure that something is up?"

* Andrew: "Let's say you're Billy's Beane. As a result of the MLBPA grievance, you're ordered to add 50 million in payroll by the end of spring training. Considering your team, what do you do? Take on the Matt Kemp salary for prospects? Sign Arrieta and Lucroy? Extend Khris Davis? How does it change if you're the Rays or Pirates or Marlins?"

* Campbell: "Why are people so down on Ohtani's hitting. I get that he's probably more valuable as a pitcher, but saying he will be like Bumgarner seems really harsh. This guy had a 1.004 OPS with 22 HR in 382 AB as a 21 year old!! That's really good in a AAAA league! That's also while putting up a 1.86 ERA in 140 IP. All of this while reportedly having good enough athleticism to be at least average in the field. It just strikes me that Bumgarner would not be able to do this in Japan even if he went full time hitting. Ohtani was literally pretty much the best hitter in Japan, while being the best pitcher, while being 21. The Bumgarner comp just seems really light. What gives?"

* Stephen: "Just sitting here, putting off writing my dissertation and thinking about future baseball. My question is: how big could MLB potentially get as far as number of teams and still be recognizable to us today? No major US sport has broken the 32 team threshold, and something about that number tells my brain it's the upper limit for a viable league in the current American (plus some of Canada) demographic context...maybe 34 just feels less round to me, I don't know. Could baseball somehow operate with 36+ teams in a truly international format come 2100 (assuming...you know, we're all alive and baseball is still extant)? What about an intersolar 128 team league in 2300 (go Europa Hyper Sox!)?"

* Nick in Chicago: "Extremely long time listener, first time emailer. I have contemplated much deeper questions than this in the past, yet these are the questions that drive me here. Under what scenarios would Jason Heyward opt out of his contract? Is there anything the Cubs could do to goad him into this? I can only think of a few scenarios but I'm not sure how plausible these are: 1) 7+ WAR season 2) bench him immediately, limiting him only to defensive replacement playing time. He becomes super pissed and opts out due to pride/ego 3) the whole clubhouse turns on him and treats him like the stinky kid in fourth grade. The situation becomes so untenable he has to opt out. Is there something I'm missing? I feel terrible for thinking about it this way, as I'm usually on the players side when it comes to getting paid, but it's so darn hard when it's YOUR team and there's a huge free agent class coming next year."

* Rebecca: "Continuing on the outfield-switch topic from a recent podcast, what are your thoughts on fielders rotating based on park factors? The size and difficulty of right and left field varies greatly from ballpark to ballpark yet teams tend to keep outfielders on the same side."

* Sam: "Something that has always bother me about baseball is the MLB's high carbon footprint. 162 games a year means thousands of flights, when one flight is enough to account for one person's "fair share" of carbon emissions for the year. Suppose a major free agent next offseason, such as Bryce Harper, had an environmental awakening, and refused to fly. This player would play only in his team's home games, and whatever road games were close enough to travel to by train or bus. How much would this depress the value of his next contract? Would teams located close to other franchises be more likely to sign him? (sorry, Rockies). Would signing this player be worth the resentment he would likely receive from other players? Assume that this player would still travel to all post season games."

* Shawn: "How much value would Mike Trout lose if he was not allowed to fly on a plane?"

* Merlyn: "Jonah Keri spoke to Buck Showalter on a recent episode of his podcast, and towards the end asked Showalter who the best player he'd managed was (segment in question around 23:50 to 25:20). Showalter optimistically answered, "That's still gonna happen down the road." Keri joked that he took the comment as a signal that the Orioles will pursue Mike Trout when he reaches free agency, to which Showalter responded, "Well, if that means you think he's the best player, you know, if you think he throws well enough to be in that category ...", and then he just stopped talking, until it became clear that this seemingly incomplete sentence was, in fact, over.Moving past how that's ridiculous like losing a Wild Card game with Zach Britton still sat in the bullpen, I wondered: It's established that Trout's arm is his weakest tool and maybe not great by big league standards. But just how bad would Trout's throwing have to be to make him not the best player in baseball, to make him below average, below replacement level, etc?"

* Martin from Canada: "There's the cliché about experience in sports (especially combat sports) that implies that by the time an athlete has reach a mastery level of experience, his or her body is to worn-out to make much use of it. So what kind of additional WAR would rookie of the year Mike Trout have if we could upload retirement year Mike Trout's brain into rookie of the year Mike Trout's body? To make things easier let's ignoring temporal paradoxes and causality - aka oldbrain/Newbody Trout does not relive the same exact timeline. I'm asking about experience, not deja-vu recall.How much would having about 10k PA worth of MLB experience in a rookie's body make Mike Trout even better?Or would this type of bodyswap be more effective on pitchers? All of that experience on the mound and a "fresher" ucl to deal? I know that's assuming the transition to a new body wouldn't cause injuries and/or wildness that we've seen pitchers go through after undergoing massive weight changes. The thought of a 21 year old Mariano Rivera with all of that experience..."

## StatBlast

* Jeff has been collecting Spring Training statistics to see what the season ahead may look like.
* In spring training strikeout and walk rates are up, ground balls are down, and home runs are up.
* The home run rate in 2015 was 9% lower than it is now.
* Walk rates are at an all time high (since 2006, when they started keeping the stat).
* BABIP and runs per game seem to be static from last year.
* Jeff remains confident that baseball will continue on its path from last year.

## Notes

* There are 5 players on the Miami Marlins 40 man roster without MLB.com profile photos.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1187: The Baseball Bounce Pass
* The Jonah Keri Podcast: Buck Showalter
* The Physics and Timing of the Infield Bounce Throw by Andrew Dominijanni