What if~The Hungarian Uprising was successful?

The Warsaw Pact. The USSR's answer to NATO (*North Atlantic Treaty Organization*) to form alliances with it's own allies to defend itself with the west.

But, it's original members were unwilling puppet states that were occupied by the Soviets after World War 2. So, it's no surprise that many of these "Puppet States" in Eastern Europe actually wanted \*out\* of this pact.

Like with Hungary as the nation staged an Uprising in October of 1956. Though, it's sovereignty (which the Soviets never acknowledged) was short lived as the Soviets came in and crushed this uprising.

So, what if an an alternate reality, Hungary was able to suceed in it's Uprising and fully withdraw from the Warsaw Pact? That si what this page will try to cover. But first (and always) some historical context. Just scroll down to the "What if?" part of this page if you want to read about the Alternate Scenario.

## Real History

*Note:* Now, I have already made a real history page for this. You can click here if you like to read about it.

In 1948, a Pro-Stalinist *Matyas Rakosi* was appointed General Secretary of a Soviet-Occupied Hungary.

Rakosi used Stalinist Tactics to purge political opposition (such as using Secret Police), this made him quite unpopular with Hungarian citizens, as did the low standards of living.

With the death of Stalin in 1953, Rakosi was replaced by *Imre Nagy*. But Rakosi would regain power in 1955 since Nagy wanted to reform Hungarian policies.

In early 1956, *Nikita Khruschev* then moved for *"De-Stalinization"* and told Rakosi to resign as General Secretary and was replaced by Adres Hagadus. With Khruschev's move to "De-Stalinize", this gave Hungary the freedom to criticize the USSR and make relations with the west.

A few months later. Hungarian students in Budapest waved flags (with the Communist emblem in the middle cut out).

This would continue and escalate into all out fighting by October. At first the rebels were successful in pushing out their Soviet Occupiers. This also allowed them to destroy Soviet monuments (even those depicting Stalin) and rescued political prisoners. They even overthrown the Pro-Communist government and established a new free government with Imre Nagy as Prime Minister.

Some of Nagy's first duties as prime Minister is to allow free elections and put an end to the usage of Secret Police. He even addressed in a Radio Broadcast throughout Hungray that the nation will leave the Warsaw Pact. With this, the Hungarian rebels believed that they have won since most of the Soviets retreated from Hungary

Of course, Khrushchev would spoil the fun for the Hungarians by denying this. By November, the Soviets would move on to invade Hungary and entering Budapest by November 6.

For the next 2 weeks, the Hungarian would fight the Soviets. Nagy even pleaded with the United Nations to help in the revolution, but the UN wouldn't intervene, believing that if it fought the Soviets would mean World War 3. Later in November, the Soviets would succeed in putting down this uprising, imprisoned Nagy (who was then executed in 1958) and a new Pro-Communist government was put in place. It wouldn't be until the fall of the USSR in 1991 when Hungary would be independent once more.

## What if?

Now, here's your favorite question. What if the Hungarians won their uprising?

### Forward

Now, just before I theorize what would happen. I need to say that this alternate scenario is *"Ridiculously Unrealistic"*, and there are a few reasons why.

For one thing, and eventhough Khrushchev wanted to undo a lot of things Stalin has done. But there was one thing he didn't want to do, and that is allow any nation in the Warsaw pact to leave. That is because Eastern Europe itself was a Defense Net against the "Capitalist" west, something that even Khrushchev mistrusted. So, there really was go getting out of the Warsaw Pact, doing so would mean the USSR would be vulnerable to Invasion as it was during World War 2.

Hungary wasn't the only the "forced" Warsaw Pact nation to try to break it's deal. Czechoslovakia (modern-day Czech Republic and Slovakia respectively) also staged an Uprising in 1968 as student protesters and rebels rose in Prague. Romania also rebelled against the USSR in 1989.

Though, only Romania was successful in pushing out their Soviet occupiers. The biggest reason why, was because the USSR was politically and militarily weaker than it was in in the 50's and 60's.

By 1989, with the issues surrounding the USSR, the Politburo and dealing with the Chernobyl disaster has put the USSR itself into a very volitile state, and this was the perfect time for the Romanians to revolt and fight against the weakened USSR.

So, Eastern Europe was vital to the USSR as they wanted to make sure that they're well defended and not have a foreign power invade them again. This remained until the Warsaw Pact dissolved along with the USSR.

The only way for the Hungarians to win their Uprising and leave the Warsaw Pact, is if the USSR.......doesn't care about Hungary in the first place (which is very unlikely), but for the sake of this scenario, let's say they.....don't.

### The Scenario

Let's say the Hungarian rebels were able to push the Soviets out of their country in October of 1956, and everything goes like it did in our reality.

But, when Nagy became Prime Minister and announced that Hungary would leave the Warsaw Pact, Khrushchev does nothing,and very likely would be ousted from his position and replaced with another leader.

What does this change? A lot.

The success of Hungary throwing out it's Soviet occupiers would also encourage other unwilling Warsaw Pact members to do the same thing. Nations like Poland, Czechoslovakia and even Romania would also criticize the Soviet Government, and even try to drive out their own Soviet occupiers by the 1960's.

But this doesn't mean that we would see a *"free-for-all"* of Uprisings in Eastern Europe, nor would we see more of those "unwilling" Warsaw Pact members also leaving. Just because the Soviets failed to take back Hungary, doesn't mean they won't succeed in stopping an uprising in another nation that is a member of the Warsaw Pact. Even with their failure of taking back Hungary, the USSR would not be content of the situation. If another WP member rises up, the Soviets will make sure to put that down as well, and learn from their mistakes in Hungary.

But if the USSR fails to put down other uprisings in other WP nations, than perhaps the USSR would face scrutiny with other WP members and other communist nations such as China.

I would also predict that the political and military power of the USSR will begin to wane by the 1970's, and if the other leaders (such as Gorbachev) were to take charge, than the USSR's eventual demise could take place a few years earlier than in our reality.

But, wait a minute. What about Hungary, how different would it be in this alternate reality?

Well, not much. Though, they would be under constant threat by Soviet Troops for at least the next decade after they won their revolution. But, it would be the same as it was for a few weeks in October of 1956 when Nagy's Government was in charge and it would also be a small NATO power as well.

However, this could also lead to a ramification that can be described as "unthinkable". NATO would also be on often times high alert with the Soviets trying (and failing) to take back their WP members, and if it gets bad enough where western powers (such as the USA) would have to get involved, than yes it could lead to a Nuclear War (one of the reasons why NATO couldn't help Hungary in it's uprising in the first place). The question is, how bad? Well, it depends on "when" NATO or USA intervention happens. Nukes back in the 50's didn't have the power to destroy the entire world as ICBMs have yet to be invented by the 50's. But if this happens in the 60's or later, than perhaps this could push the world closer to WW3 than it ever did with the Cuban Missile Crisis in our reality, and perhaps the world would be destroyed in a blaze of nuclear fire. But I really don't know, this scenario (out of many others) is impossible to accurately predict.

One thing that can be generally assumed is that the USSR will definitely face scrutiny throughout not just the Warsaw Pact and other communist nations, but the entire world. Not to mention that the crises that the USSR would also face which could lead to it's eventual demise earlier.

Well, that is all for this page. What do you think would happen if the Hungarian Uprising succeeded? Don't forget to check out my Games wiki if you like video games, and my Movies wiki if you like movies. Until next time, this is JohnnyOTGS signing out.