Chawosauria in the 2024 United States Presidential Election

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held in the United States on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as well as simultaneous elections for Congress and state government. The 2024 U.S. elections will be coincided with the 2024 Chawosaurian elections to elect the 2025-2029 Chawosaurian Government, but Chawosauria will hold their election a month before the U.S. holds theirs. The 2024 U.S. elections will take place during the lame-duck session of the 2020-2024 Chawosaurian Government of Supreme Leader Shang Jong Parker, who won't be up for election again until 2029. As a result of constitutional reforms in 2022 and 2023, the Chawosaurian Imperial Government has no legal right to meddle themselves into foreign politics. Major Amendment XI of the Imperial Constitution of the Empire of Chawosauria forbids the Chawosaurian Imperial Government from involving itself in foreign politics.

The U.S. Democratic Party, as the party that holds the White House via President Joe Biden, will enter 2024 with history because in presidential elections, it is the incumbent President who mostly wins even despite a midterm election which had always saw the President's party getting crushed, but the 2022 U.S. midterm elections under Democratic President Joe Biden did not result in a typical midterm backlash against Biden and when a President wins a midterm election and is up for reelection, the reelection prospects of that President is always widely considered strong. Bush won the 2002 U.S. midterm elections mainly due to the aftermath of the September 11 Attacks in 2001, and Bush went on to win reelection in 2004. President Franklin D. Roosevelt scored historic wins in the 1934 U.S. midterm elections, and he cruised to a landslide reelection in 1936.

Following the Republicans' debacle of a midterm election in 2022, allowing the Democrats of President Biden to gain ground in the U.S. Senate and state governments and did damage control in their loss of the U.S. House of Representatives, but also since the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol and the overturning of *Roe v. Wade* by the Supreme Court of the United States before the midterms were held, the U.S. Republican Party, by supporting the ending of Roe and excusing the January 6th insurrection, has become a pariah in American politics and the Republicans become to be widely seen as a radical, right-wing extremist political party that is out of step from the culturally progressive majority American public that supports legalizing same-sex marriage, abortion access, and social equality. This makes the Republican Party extremely vulnerable to voter backlash in the 2024 U.S. elections similar to the backlash the Barry Goldwater Republican Party suffered in the 1964 U.S. elections.

For eight years, Donald Trump has ruled the Republican Party with an iron fist and he successfully played kingmaker in the Republican primaries during the 2022 midterms with some help from sneaky Democratic Party campaign arms who meddled into Republican primaries in favor of far-right extremists out of the belief that they'd make easier opponents for Democrats to beat in the general election. As a result of the Republicans' embarrassing showing in the midterms and bad press for the Republicans as a result, Trump faced bad blood from fatigued and livid Republicans and conservatives across the country, therefore threatening his rule, and as he enters the 2024 presidential race, he suffered a challenge to his rule therefore forcing him to actually fight for the Republican nomination, something Trump isn't really used to, and as for the Republican Party itself, the party turned on each other as well, resulting in an ugly fight to elect a U.S. Speaker amongst the Republicans' new paper-thin majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Donald Trump was arrested for paying hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels, who Trump allegedly had an affair with when his youngest son Barron was on the way to being born in 2006. The hush money payment was intended to keep Daniels silent about the sexual encounter in hopes to duck voter backlash in the 2016 U.S. presidential election if the information had come out or been discovered by a major media organization. Under U.S. law, it is considered or believed to be unlawful campaign contribution, though U.S. federal laws regarding campaign contributions were complicated by the U.S. Supreme Court's decree in *Citizens United v. FEC* in 2010. On the Democratic side, Biden's grip on the Democratic Party had always been fragile and negotiable which is an environment a President will be bound to go through, but the 2022 midterm elections forced Biden's doubters to concede that the 2022 midterm elections was historic ground breaking for a President in two decades, in this case, being President Joe Biden, who made history in his own right, being the first incumbent President since Franklin D. Roosevelt during the 1934 U.S. midterm elections to defend all U.S. Senate seats and incumbents and not lose any ground in state government. It is not clear if Biden will face a major primary challenger and it was telling how successful of a midterm 2022 was for Biden. In the 2023 U.S. offyear elections, Republicans continue to struggle to capitalize on Biden's unpopularity, getting even worse results in 2023 due to the haunting issue of abortion.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will likely be the first rematch since 1956, and this rematch is widely unpopular, Trump is an unwanted candidate because of the January 6th insurrection, his style of politics, and the criminal investigations and indictments against him, and Joe Biden is unwanted as a candidate because of his age, he is the oldest President in U.S. history at 81 years old throughout most of 2024, and there is universal discontent with elderly generations because of stereotypical backward views and the consequences they had on the country, though President Biden's views are mostly modern, and a fear that he is so old that he could potentially pass away in office, and other issues outside of age, the economy was scarred by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there was a considerable list of unfulfilled 2020 election promises that Biden made, plus his poorly calculated decision to stand with Israel during its war with Hamas, which greatly infuriated many Americans under 50.

## Background

The Republican Party had control of the White House and just one of two chambers of Congress, that being the U.S. Senate at the beginning of 2020, the 2020 U.S. elections, including its head, the presidential election, started with history on the Republicans' side. The party of the incumbent President of the United States who is up for reelection rides on a successful feet in a reelection cycle for the President, the most recent example being 2012, when Democratic President Barack Obama won reelection pretty handily than expected and Obama's Democrats crushed the Republicans down the ballot, hardening their Senate majority at the time and giving a Republican majority in the U.S. House stinging whip-marks on its back.

Unfortunately for Trump's Republicans, the COVID-19 pandemic crushed what would've been a successful reelection story to tell, a booming U.S. economy; and widespread protests and riots that grips the nation over the police killing of George Floyd undermined Trump's ability to argue that he brought stability on America's streets and it didn't look good for Trump's accomplishment on criminal justice reform. Making matters worse for Trump, Bernie Sanders, who would've been easy for Republicans to smear as a left-wing extremist given Bernie openly calls himself a socialist, was clobbered in the Democratic primaries at the hands of former Vice President Joe Biden, a moderate Democrat who would be acceptable to crucial swing voters in the suburbs who had a distaste for Trump. Down in the polls and desperate to gain momentum, Trump and the Republicans went to desperate tactics, trying to blame the George Floyd protests on the Democrats (though the Republicans are the ones in charge) and tried to paint Biden as a socialist (though Biden literally defeated a socialist in the primaries) and the Republicans tried to downplay the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have backfired as it actually infected and killed portions of the Republican electorate, disabling their ability to save the Republicans on the ballot. The Republican message failed to sway independent voters or enough of them that is as Democrats retained control of the U.S. House of Representatives though unexpectedly lost seats mostly due to Trump being on the ballot, but Trump lost reelection to Biden and as a consequence, the Democrats would go on to end Republican rule of the U.S. Senate. For the first time since 2008, Democrats won control of Congress and the presidency and became the first opposition party since ...themselves... during the Hoover years to roll back a trifecta in a single term.

Democrats came to full power on January 20, 2021, but to the full dismay for the Democratic Party, the Biden presidency had not been going so well. Due to stiff Republican resistance, President Biden set a significantly modest record of legislative accomplishments from a Congress that is under full Democratic reign, plus, the U.S. economy getting weakened by inflation caused by pandemic-caused supply chain shortages, the Taliban siege of Afghanistan disrupting the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan into a clusterfuck, ending the U.S. War in Afghanistan for good in U.S. humiliation and the American general public had been disillusioned with Biden ever since. Constant state and local legislative defeats for state and local Democrats on issues of voting and reproductive rights and the eventual electoral defeats for Democrats in the 2021 U.S. state and local elections, especially in Virginia. Going into 2022, it was obviously a crateringly bad year for Biden and the Democrats, the effects of Inflation were too clear for the public, Biden's signature piece of legislation that would complete his Build Back Better agenda, the Build Back Better Act, crumbled when U.S. Senator from West Virginia, Joe Manchin, said he would not support it, and all of these crises overwhelmed the Biden presidency, weakened Democratic morale, and undermined public perception and public morale for President Biden but does create an opportunity for the morale for a change in political leadership, which all threatened Biden's reelection prospects since he made it clear that he is interested in running in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, facing him up against a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump who has his own election prospect risks, and speaking of which, there is a risk for Republicans to screw an opportunity to convince the country to change.

Starting in August 2022, Biden's presidency seemed to have experienced a turnaround from being perceived as an inadequate presidency to a presidency that could potentially succeed; the Democrats seeing their election prospects appearingly improving due to popular backlash against the overturning of *Roe v. Wade* and the Republican support for it costing the Republicans the slim prospects they originally had, alongside inflation easing despite continuing economic uncertainty, and the successful negotiation of Biden's chief agenda of climate action and healthcare reform resulting in the easy passage of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which borrowed provisions from Biden's dead Build Back Better legislation. The Republican Party now has the perception of being a right-wing extremist political party against a more moderate Democratic Party that just had a successful month of August 2022 of legislative success, having passed healthcare for U.S. veterans despite a backfired Republican blockade, a climate and healthcare bill, and inflation calming.

On August 23, 2022 in the U.S. State of New York, Democrats won their first U.S. house special election since the year had started, and in another special election in which Democrats lost, the vanquished Democrat lost with a higher share of the vote than the previous losing Democrat did in 2020. The Democratic victory in New York's 19th congressional district was expected to flip away to the Republicans, but the Democrats defied these predictions and in New York's 23rd congressional district, the Republicans held on that district but with weaker numbers after holding it in a landslide in 2020. These results, plus an anti-abortion law up for popular approval in Kansas which failed by the voters' will, suggested that the Republican Party's successful tide in their decades long crusade to influence the Supreme Court to end *Roe v. Wade* is appearing to have backfired on Republicans as Americans generally do not support the fall of Roe. It was also revealed that Republican U.S. Senate nominee, Herschel Walker had paid an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion which she did, but refused another abortion demanded by Walker; the ex-girlfriend wasn't having it with Walker's anti-abortion rhetoric as he runs to become U.S. Senator for the U.S. State of Georgia, so she contacted the media with proof of the abortion (a receipt, a get-well card from Walker, and a check from him). Walker attempted to lie himself out of the scandal as a sign that such a scandal makes him out to be a hypocrite, making matters worse, Walker's own son, Christian Walker, produced by marriage, said he was a deadbeat father who beats his mother and has several affairs and that he wasn't at home raising him. Christian Walker said these things despite being a popular social media personality on TikTok for the conservatives, an African-American gay gen Zer Republican who "owns the libs", Christian Walker coming out against his own father was a blow to Republicans on so many levels. On August 31, 2022, it was declared that a Democrat has won Alaska's sole congressional district to fill the vacancy of late Republican representative Don Young. For a Democrat to win the only congressional district of the traditionally Republican state of Alaska was widely seen a colossal embarrassment for the Republican Party, especially in a midterm year widely expected to go Republican back in January 2022 due to the presence of a Democrat Commander-In-Chief occupying the White House, This will only add to the internal anxiety being felt inside the Republican Party and further boost morale within the Democratic Party and make Democratic Party insiders so excited about their party's chances in the midterm elections this November that they could hear their own heartbeats.

In October 2022, the Republicans began to make a comeback in the polls. Regaining the potentiality of a Republican Congress or just a Republican House of Representatives but a Democratic Senate leftover for the luck of the Democrats.

Notes and key
* Note II: 🔵 (D) 🔴 (R) denotes eventual party winner regardless of the President's seat performance. Example: a Democratic President 🔵 can gain seats **+5** in a congressional chamber but still fail to win that chamber 🔴. This happened in 1998.
* Note III: **bold plus (+)** means President gained seats and non-bold minus (-) means the President lost seats. In 1978, Democratic President Jimmy Carter losts seats (-3 in the Senate: -15 in the House) but Democrats retained control of Congress 🔵.
* Note IV: when Jimmy Carter's midterm shows the blue team losing seats, that's only because of the presence of a Democratic President
* Note V: In Reagan's second midterm in 1986, the **+8** governor gain under a blue circle does not mean the Democrats gained 8 governorships, it means they have the most governorships but Reagan (a Republican president) flipped 8 governorships from the Democrats

The Democratic Party had a history-defying successful midterm election, excluding losing the U.S. House of Representatives just only leniently than widely expected, the Democrats defended its majority in the U.S. Senate and expand it by only a seat, and Democrats gained ground in state governments which is a rare accomplishment for a party in the White House since 1934 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. What saved the Democrats from a political fall from grace was the unprecedented turnout of the Generation Z, the succeeding generation of the millennials who also voted for Democrats as well, this surge in youth turnout has something to do with anger with the ending of *Roe v. Wade* which for a half century protected abortion rights, as well as President Biden's pardoning of college student debt as well as the president's pardoning of federal marijuana charges, as well as environmental concerns over climate change amongst these two generations. Another reason why Democrats won was the fact that Republicans ran inadequate to in most cases extreme candidates who openly declared the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election to be illegitimate and they ran a campaign based on embracing democratic backsliding to avoid a repeat of the 2020 defeat for Republicans.

The Democratic Party had a history-defying successful midterm election, excluding losing the U.S. House of Representatives just only leniently than widely expected, the Democrats defended its majority in the U.S. Senate and expand it by only a seat, and Democrats gained ground in state governments which is a rare accomplishment for a party in the White House since 1934 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. What saved the Democrats from a political fall from grace was the unprecedented turnout of the Generation Z, the succeeding generation of the millennials who also voted for Democrats as well, this surge in youth turnout has something to do with anger with the ending of *Roe v. Wade* which for a half century protected abortion rights, as well as President Biden's pardoning of college student debt as well as the president's pardoning of federal marijuana charges, as well as environmental concerns over climate change amongst these two generations. Another reason why Democrats won was the fact that Republicans ran inadequate to in most cases extreme candidates who openly declared the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election to be illegitimate and they ran a campaign based on embracing democratic backsliding to avoid a repeat of the 2020 defeat for Republicans.

Distraught and embarrassed by the humiliating performance for an American opposition party in an American midterm election, angry and frustrated Republicans from all sides have pointed the finger at Donald Trump, the man who catapulted these extremist candidates to run in the 2022 midterm elections, only for most of them to lose the general election that were winnable for the Republican Party, the two exceptions were Ohio and North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, storms to a landslide reelection in what was then a swing state, making Republicans rally around DeSantis to the dismay of Donald Trump. Since then, Trump had feared a primary challenge that he never experienced in any of his last primaries. In 2016, Trump faced weaker establishment candidates and in 2020, Trump enjoyed the benefits of presidential incumbency, but 2024, Trump will have neither of that.

## Campaign in the United States

### Presidential Campaign

By the winter of 2023 to 2024, President Biden was at the nadir of his campaign, as Americans have quickly grown really tired of him running for reelection in his 80s, a U.S. economy that is stubbornly not internally recovering, and the president's poorly calculated decision to support Israel during its war with Hamas following an attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Biden's election poll numbers were significantly weaker than they were in 2020, while Trump's has always been stagnant, leading to a situation where Biden and Trump repeatedly led each other by pluralities in the polls, while back in 2020, Biden had always beaten Trump often by simple majorities in polls back to back. Biden's support for Israel alienated many Arab Americans, many millennials and Gen Zers, and progressives; even American Jews believed Biden should press Israel for a ceasefire, despite Jewish Americans continuing their hardline support for Biden. Two other reasons Americans in their 20s were not pumped with Biden was the U.S. economy and the president's struggle to persue student debt forgiveness.

As for Donald Trump, the recent off-year election results from 2023, which showed worsening results for Republicans and Trump's MAGA movement more broadly, revealed that Americans are just as ill with the Republican Party as they are with Biden, and the extremism in the Republican Party that Trump planted in the party have made it so incredibly difficult for Americans to choose the Republican alternative over the Democratic Party of Joe Biden, which suggests two things: which is that only just Joe Biden alone is a doomed candidate but not the Democratic Party as a whole, which means Republicans can win the White House but not unified control of the U.S. Congress, which would mark the first time since 1988 that a new President comes to office without Congress under unified control of the new presidential party, and if this happens, then the Republican president will have a very difficult presidency ahead of him, which will be marked by the difficulty of trying to get his promised agenda through a Congress where one of its two chambers is under Democratic control; or the Democratic Party, including Biden, dominates the entire 2024 election cycle, which means the Republican Party is so unpopular for their extremism that even Joe Biden wins a second term by default despite the economy, despite his age, and despite a slow and lagging platform. A Joe Biden reelection would be incredibly embarrassing for the Republican Party, very particularly, extremely unsignifying for the MAGA movement, who had always saw Joe Biden as an old and weak person yet they still lose to him, as was demonstrated in 2020 elections and the 2022 midterms.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump are rematch candidates, the first since President Eisenhower and Governor Stevenson in 1956. Biden and Trump are unpopular candidates with a significant amount of negatives than positives, however, in a normal presidential election, the unpopular president is a doomed incumbent who is clearly pointless for a presidential nomination by a party, but in the case of 2024, Biden could defy this history because his challenger, Donald Trump, is just as unpopular as Biden, and Trump has so many personal problems and scandals, and this can help Biden neutralize the power of his own unpopularity, allowing him to be competitive, which would make Biden the most competitive unpopular incumbent president, probably in U.S. history, while unpopular one term incumbents of the past: Trump himself (2020), George H.W. Bush (1992), Carter (1980), and Hoover (1932), faced hopeless prospects and they were brutally defeated in their reelection bids, except for Trump who was the strongest performing incumbent to lose a presidential election since Benjamin Harrison in 1892. In 1912, President William Howard Taft lost so bad that he finished third place.

### Congressional Campaign

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the Republican Party got significantly way less than expected in the congressional elections held that year, which is highly unusual for an opposition party to perform this weakly in a midterm election. Out of the midterms, Republicans barely captured a slim majority by the finger nails in the House of Representatives, a majority so small that it was just four seats away from the majority number (218 seats) and a single digit gap over the Democrats, the Republicans control a narrow majority of 222 seats controlled by Republicans and 213 seats maintained by the Democrats, which was a very similar composition from when Democrats themselves controlled the House with a 222-213 margin, which means by gaining control of the House, Republicans flipped 9 seats, which is far below the average number of flips the opposition party gets from the President's party in midterms. The Senate races in 2022 were alot worse for Republicans; not only Republicans failed to flip every single swing state that has a Democratic Senator up for reelection, but Republicans lost a purple state Senate seat of their own, that being in Pennsylvania; Democrats controlled the Senate as well with 50-50 but with the Vice President constitutionally required to cast a tie-breaking vote, but after the 2022 midterms, Democrats controlled the Senate firmly with 51-49.

The start of the 118th U.S. Congress on January 3, 2023 did not kick off to a good start; the Republicans, given how the party operates compare to the Democrats, met the agonizing disadvantages of a razor thin majority, which means when a party turn on each other, holding a narrow majority becomes a real headache, ironically Democrats suffered this in their previous Senate majority, but the Republicans in the House were so divided that they couldn't even do simple tasks, among them, the election of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, a problem the Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer never faced when he won a narrow majority in 2020.

The Republican nominee for Speaker was Kevin McCarthy, but he was loathed by hardline conservatives in the Republican caucus in the House, and a narrow majority with hardliners having the power to heat the seat for Kevin McCarthy proved to be an extreme experience. McCarthy becomes the first person since 1923 to fail to win the Speakership on the first ballot, forcing him to go through four days and 15 ballots to get to the Speaker's gavel, which is actually a treasured dream, but one that become one of those dreams best left a fantasy. McCarthy struggled immensely to govern the House as Speaker without hardliners pressuring him at gun point. To win the Speakership, McCarthy reluctantly agreed to a rule, the motion to vacate the chair, which allows one member to call for a vote to oust the Speaker when that particular Speaker fails to satisfy concerns or fails to honor his or her duty to the country.

## See also

* Chawosauria in the 2020 United States Presidential Election
* Chawosauria in the 2016 United States Presidential Election