2021 Power Rankings-Week 12

## Introduction

Eight teams. Five spots. Every week the picture gets clearer. With Paddock 9 eliminated, and Stupid Idiots mathematically clinching (albeit not recognized yet by Yahoo), there are five spots remaining in the Festival of Champions and eight teams fighting for those spots. Every year feels exciting and somehow different. And it also feels like this is the year of parity unlike any before. Is this illusion? Or is it fact?

## The 2021 Parity Chart

I usually save the parity chart for the end of the season, but why wait? Every team has beaten the team to their right:

Paddock 9 > Multiverse of Mattness

Mattness > Stupid Idiots

Stupid Idiots > Duck Punchers

Duck Punchers > Pain Train

Pain Train > RIPDab

RIPDab > Papa's Posse

Papa's Posse > Sweet Dee

Sweet Dee > ma ma momma said

Ma ma momma said > Paddock 9

If everyone can beat everyone, then who knows what could happen over the final few weeks of the season?

## Most Wins - 6th-9th

One thing that I have noticed is that the middle of the pack is competitive and not necessarily in a shitty way. We don't have four crappy teams on the bubble this year. We have four good teams who have underperformed or been hit with injuries. We have teams who started off hot and cooled off, while other teams started cool and are getting hot. The result? The 2nd most bubble-wins in LOC history.

We can probably just forget 2011, the 12-team season. Apart from that, 2021 features the most wins combined for the 6th-9th place teams.

## Smallest Win Differential with Three Weeks Remaining (4th-9th)

Here's another thing I've noticed. This time last season there were two games left, but of course we have three. So to really compare this stat I needed to look at week 10 standings from 2011-2020 (in other words, standings with three left to play). Then, I could accurately chart the number of games back the 9th place team was from 4th place. Once again, we end up with the narrowest margin in LOC history.

Updated Through week 11 2021

Once again, 2011 should be considered an outlier. But take that away and there has been only one other season in LOC history where the 9th place team is just two games back of 4th place with three weeks left in the regular season. For a team to be so close to elimination and also so close to 4th place is pretty insane.

Don't give up, Pain Train!

## Matchup Recap

* Stupid Idiots wins the biggest regular season game in team history by finally taking down Duck Punchers (1-7). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Ma ma momma said wins the season series against The Shotti Bunch, drawing even in their matchup history and keeping bye hopes alive (10-10). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Multiverse of Mattness wins consecutive games against Pain Train for the first time in franchise history, winning the season series and moving back into playoff position (6-12). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Sweet Dee also wins consecutive games against her opponent, RIPDab, for the first time in franchise history, knocking her husband out of playoff seeding for the time being (5-10). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Papa's Posse ***also*** wins consecutive games against his opponent, Paddock 9, for the first time in franchise history (5-10). **Next Matchup: N/A**

## Stat Chat

* Ma ma momma said becomes the 5th team to reach 80 combined wins.
* Papa's Posse becomes the 8th team to reach 60 regular season wins.
* The Stupid Idiots notches his 4th straight win, the longest streak in franchise history.
* Pain Train has logged 7 losses for the first time since 2016.
* Papa's Posse has logged 6 wins for the first time since 2018.
* Ma ma momma said becomes the only team with a winning record against The Shotti Bunch in the regular season (minimum 8 games).
* The Stupid Idiots wins 8 games in a single regular season for the first time in franchise history.
* The Stupid Idiots now stands alone with the 7th longest streak of consecutive regular season games over 200 points (9).
* Papa is awarded his third Blowout of the Week this season (league leading). Two of those blowouts were against Paddock 9.

## Seasons of 8 or More Wins by Team

Updated Through week 11 2021

Seasons of 8 or more Wins by Each Team
 Duck Punchers
 Pain Train
 ma ma momma said
 RIPDab
 Multiverse of Mattness
 Papa's Posse
 Paddock 9
 Sweet Dee
 The Stupid Idiots

## Longest Single-Season Win Streaks by Team

This week, Stupid Idiots broke another franchise record: longest single-season win streak. At four games, it doesn't quite shake the earth, but it's still a great accomplishment (and they may not be done yet).

Longest Single-Season Win Streaks by Team
 Multiverse of Mattness
 Duck Punchers
 RIPDab
 The Shotti Bunch
 ma ma momma said
 Paddock 9
 Papa's Posse
 The Stupid Idiots
 Sweet Dee

## Seasons with 4 or More Consecutive Wins by Team

Seasons of 4 or More Consecutive Wins by Team
 The Shotti Bunch
 ma ma momma said
 Pain Train
 Paddock 9
 RIPDab
 Multiverse of Mattness
 Papa's Posse
 The Stupid Idiots
 Sweet Dee

While this is just the first time that Stupid has ever had a season with four straight wins, Duck Punchers has accomplished this an incredible seven times (or 63% of all seasons played). Compare that to Papa's Posse, who has only been able to do this in 18% of seasons played.

## Absolute Standings

PAPA STAYS HOT! What is happening!? Never count yourself out early in the season. 1-4 start, 5-1 since. Top scoring team in the league week 11. SHEESH.

## Playoffs??

The playoff picture got a little clearer in week 11, but there is still a lot to decide with three games left.

Shotti and RIPDab play each other in week 14 and both are currently 5-6 in 6th and 7th place. This means the 6th seed will need AT LEAST 6 wins for a shot at the playoffs. That mathematically eliminates Paddock 9. It also means that Pain Train likely needs to win out for a realistic shot. Their only other real option is for Shotti to go 0-3 and RIPDab to go 1-2 (only beating Shotti) and then Pain Train can afford to go 2-1, provided they close the scoring gap with Dab. It's a tall order. But as I said above: don't give up! Anything is possible.

At the top, Stupid Idiots is locked in. The most wins any non-playoff team can reach is 8, and Idiots is the top-scoring team in the league. Any tie-break will reasonably go to Idiots. So they are shown below as CLINCHED.

There is a massive week 13 game looming between ma ma momma said and The Stupid Idiots with the Commissioner's Cup potentially on the line. Momma only trails Stupid Idiots by 28.60 points, an easy gap to close. If Idiots loses to momma, and momma goes 3-0, they could overthrow him for 1st.

### Magic Number

A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **win** to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. These take into account scoring differentials deemed to be significant.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarantee this spot.

DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories.

* - Indicates First Round Bye

### Elimination Number

An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must **lose** to guarantee losing a given playoff spot.

^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot

X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot

Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot.

MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games.

* - Indicates first round bye

## Week Ten Scenarios

* **The Stupid Idiot** clinches a first round bye with:
	+ **Win** and **losses** by Duck Punchers *and* ma ma momma said
* **ma ma momma said** clinches playoffs with:
	+ **Win**
* **Duck Punchers** clinches playoffs with:
	+ **Win**

* **Pain Train** is eliminated with:
	+ **Loss** and wins by The Shotti Bunch and RIPDab

## Above and Below, Do you Suck or Do you Blow?

Fun little rhyme, doesn't really make sense but whatever.

As I watched my team beat projection for the first time in what seems like an eternity, I got to thinking: how has each team done compared to their projected points? At first I thought that I'd take the average number of points each team finished relative to their projection, but once I realized it involved computing 110 unique numbers, I figured games above vs. games below would be just as satisfying a stat.

### Above/Below?

RIPDab has only beaten his projection two times this season, a shocking stat that proves just how disappointing this roster has been. Multiverse with seven games under projection is also unsurprising. At the top, Duck beating projection 7 times is pretty great compared to the rest of the league. However, Duck has failed to beat projection in three straight weeks.

## The Best of the Rest

With three weeks to play, some of the best matchups of the season are yet to take place. So many games still have an impact on the outcome of this season. Here are some mega-matchups still to come.

### Week 12

* Commish (6-5) vs. Papa (6-5): 4th vs. 5th with three 5-6 teams waiting to pounce on the loser.
* Shotti (5-6) vs. Sweet Dee (5-6): From tanking three weeks ago to in control of their destiny, Sweet Dee can leap-frog Shotti with an upset.

### Week 13

* Ma ma momma said (7-4) vs. Stupid Idiots (8-3): A game that should help decide a bye spot or two, this titanic battle will have a ripple effect down the standings to Duck Punchers and any of the week 12 winners .
* Commish (6-5) vs. Sweet Dee (5-6): If Sweet Dee were to win against Shotti, this matchup could be the season for Dee. A win and they have hopped into playoff position with one to play, a loss and they may be done for 2021. Commish, meanwhile, is in a similar boat if they lose to Papa's Posse.

### Week 14

* The Shotti Bunch (5-6) vs. RIPDab (5-6): No matter what happens in the next two weeks, the Fantasy Gods will likely script it so a week 14 showdown between these two bubble teams determines the 6th and final spot in the 2021 Festival of Champions.
* Duck Punchers (7-4) vs. Papa's Posse (6-5): The league's hottest team and one of the league's coldest will meet up in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 2011.
* Ma ma momma said (7-4) vs. Multiverse of Mattness (6-5): This perennial final week head-ti-head has given us some of the best finishes ever, and week 14's showdown will be no exception. Both teams will have plenty to play for, with momma looking for a bye and Mattness hoping to make playoffs for the first time since 2019.

## Trade Tracker

Will Hopkins ever play again?

Starts (Paddock 9):

* Kirk: 3
* Reagor: 0

Starts (RIPDab)

* Hopkins: 4
* Williams: 1

Ugly stuff here. Hopkins is on the bye this week, meaning that he will have missed four games out of a possible 8.

Starts (ma ma momma said):

* Dallas Goedert: 4

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* J.D. McKissic: 3

Momma, Commish, and their flex players are on a collision course for a week 14 showdown that will be full of drama.

Starts (Papa's Posse):

* Darrell Mooney: 1
* Zach Ertz: 1

Starts (Multiverse of Mattness):

* Aaron Rodgers: 1
* Noah Fant: 0

Really sad day for the haters who think somehow I fleeced Papa in this trade. The Posse converted a player who was literally never going to start for two guys who both boomed in their very first week on the new team. Good times never last, but this was a hell of an opening statement.

## Power Rankings - Week Eleven

* APT: **RECORD AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS**

* L3: **RECORD OVER LAST THREE GAMES**

### 1(2). The Stupid Idiots (8-3)

* APT: 6-2
* L3: 3-0

It can no longer be denied. Momma was the dominant force for most of the season, but when he lost Henry and Idiots gained Hill, the whole dynamic of the season changed. Stupid Idiots is the team to beat. The only question now is if they can take care of business and earn themselves the bye. Their final three games (RIP, momma, Pain Train) will have just as much influence on the rest of the standings as it does on their own seeding.

### 2(1). Ma ma momma said (7-4)

* APT: 4-3
* L3: 2-1

Momma may be 4-2 over their last 6, but they've also failed to break 200 points in three of their last four. Ater scoring over 220 in each of their first seven games, their roster seems to have cooled off at an inopportune time. Games against Paddock 9 and Mattness should help them get to that 8th win and lock them in for the Festival, but a bye might be crucial to their Glory Bowl hopes.

### 3(7). The Multiverse of Mattness (6-5)

* APT: 3-4
* L3: 1-2

And just like that, Multiverse has arrived. Trade after trade after trade. Injuries upon injuries. The stars all finally aligned in week eleven with a massive performance that shot them up the standings. Over the next few weeks nearly every star player on this team has their bye, which is not ideal as they go hunting for one, maybe two more wins. But if they can make the dance, this team is as dangerous as any.

### 4(3). Duck Punchers (7-4)

* APT: 4-2
* L3: 1-2

Duck Punchers is slumping in a big way. This is the second season in a row that Duck Punchers started 5-1 and then fell to 7-4. It's an odd trend and if it continues it could mean another early exit in the Festival of Champions. The loss to Stupid Idiots, a feeling that Duck has never experienced in the LOC, had to rock the lockerroom this weekend. Now, with CeeDee hurt and the NYG offense in shambles (Duck starts both Golladay and Barkley), this team need to hope for some help to sustain their success.

### 5(8). Papa's Posse (6-5)

* APT: 1-4
* L3: 3-0

The best team in week 11 was Papa's Posse. It's the first time they were the top scoring squad since week 13 of the 2018 season. The bad news for them? They aren't favored in any more games this year and they don't currently own any tie-breakers. Beating Multiverse of Mattness this week is their best chance at locking up the playoff race early enough to prepare for the Glory Bowl push. Ultimately, it comes down to if their guys can continue their streak of performing above expectations.

### 6(4). The Shotti Bunch (5-6)

* APT: 2-5
* L3: 1-2

They should get back on track against a Sweet Dee team who is without Patrick Mahomes, but they themselves are without key offensive players like Amari Cooper. On paper this is not projected to be close and Shotti has been one of the league's best teams in terms of beating projection, but there is a lot of Thanksgiving action this week and that can be unpredictable.

### 7(5). RIPDab (5-6)

* APT: 3-3
* L3: 1-2

After starting the season with seven games over 200, they're under 181 in each of their last four. In week 11, without Kupp, Jones, and Hopkins and Murray, RIPDab barely stood a chance against the 4-win Sweet Dee. Now they once again are without Jones and the merry band of Cardinals. Add to that the loss of Travis Kelce to the bye and you've got another big hill to climb.

### 8(6). Pain Train (4-7)

* APT: 2-4
* L3: 0-3

Historically, Pain Train fed on matchups vs. Mattness. This season, however, they have made the difference between a playoff spot and the 9th place seat they currently occupy. Pain Train had their best game since week 7 but it wasn't enough and now they are in a win-or-go-home scenario every week until the end. Lucky for them, they are going up against a Duck Punchers team that hasn't been able to get it together all month.

### 9(9). Sweet Dee (5-6)

* APT: 1-6
* L3: 2-1

Winners of three out of the last four, Sweet Dee might be regretting the trade of Tyreek Hill come December. With a game against Paddock 9 still to play, plus showdowns with two of the teams directly competing with them for a 6th seed, Dee still controls her own destiny. End of the day, they are still set up nicely for next year and whatever happens in 2021 is just a bonus. Besides, four of their five wins have been against non-playoff teams, suggesting that maybe their current run isn't as impressive as it seems.

### 10(10). Paddock 9

* APT: 1-6
* L3: 1-2

I really thought Paddock 9 was turning a corner when they were only losing by 80 but then they lost by 100 and I figured they might be out of it for this season. So after all of that trading, what does P9 have to look forward to in the 2022 draft? Three 4ths, two 5ths, two 6ths, and two 7ths. Between the 3rd-7th rounds they will have 9 picks. Comparatively, Commish and Dab will each have 3.

## Matchup of the Week - A Family Affair

It isn't often that a matchup between Papa and Commish is worthy of a headline, but here we are. Two 6-5 teams going at it with Shotti, Dee, and Dab hot on their heels. Basically the entire bottom half of the league should be rooting for Papa in this one because Commish is such a low-scoring team that it is more beneficial to be caught up in a tie with them on the bybble than with Papa. The top half of the league, meanwhile, should be rooting for Commish for the exact same reason. You'd rather be tied at the top with a several hundred point lead than with Papa, who is nearly identical to Duck Punchers in scoring this season.

Mattness owns a 12-6 edge but has lost three of the last four games against Papa and will be without CEH, James Connor, and probably Alvin Kamara.

## In Conclusion

Hope you all enjoyed this supersized writeup this week. It may be one of the last chances I have to deliver this level of content until Christmas hiatus. I also hope you all enjoy "Hawkeye," on which I have been working since March of this year. It caused me a lot of stress and exhaustion and at least one accidental start/sit decision.