recursal/Fanatic-Fandom huggingface dataset:
Atlantic/2018/04L/Archive/8

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 9 2018

Debby is on its final leg. Strong wind shear has ripped apart the moderate convection Debby was producing, and the low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it races toward the northeast ahead of an upper-level trough. Given the earlier ASCAT pass that showed winds of at least 40kt, the initial intensity is set only a little lower at 35kt. Appreciable convection is unlikely to return over cold waters and in an environment of dry air and wind shear, therefore Debby should degenerate to a remnant low later today before dissipating early tomorrow.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 09/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/13L/Archive/16

Lorenzo has continued to weaken this afternoon, as any signs of a well-defined eye have vanished from infrared imagery. Microwave passes from around 19z show that the storm's southern eyewall has eroded under the influence of moderate wind shear. A NOAA plane was expected to conduct low-level reconnaissance on Lorenzo this afternoon, but it was diverted for search-and-rescue of a ship that capsized in the powerful hurricane. Current intensity estimates were T5.5/102kt from SAB and T6.0/115kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT. An average of these numbers supports an initial intensity of 110kt.
Wind shear values are expected to be largely in the moderate range over the next 3 days, preventing significant re-intensification as Lorenzo remains in a moist environment over warm ocean temperatures. Eyewall replacement cycles are also likely to be a modulator of the storm's strength. Around days 2 and 3, provided the inner core is in stable shape, upper-level winds may fall just enough to provide the opportunity for reorganization. This is uncertain, though, and continues not to be reflected in the main forecast. By days 4 and 5, a track over colder waters and interaction with upper-level westerlies should cause Lorenzo to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone.
Lorenzo continues to move north-northwest. However, a curve toward the north should occur by this time tomorrow, with a bend toward the northeast thereafter. Model guidance is in fantastic agreement regarding the track of this powerful hurricane, and it is expected to remain a powerful cyclone, tropical or not, as it approaches the Azores five days from now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 90 KT 105 MPH
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/12

Barry made landfall this afternoon around 17z as a Category 1 hurricane. Since that time, the storm's low-level center has continued to move inland. While this center is exposed, with associated deep convective activity confined to the Louisiana coastline and out over the Gulf of Mexico, recent surface observations support an initial intensity of 55kt.
As expected, the storm has been slow to lose strength over the marshes of Louisiana. However, a more brisk weakening pace is expected beginning in a few hours as Barry ventures deeper into the United States. Degeneration should occur in about 36 hours from now, with dissipation around day 4. The cyclone has moved north-northwest today toward a weakness in the mid-level ridge to its north. This trajectory may even become strictly north over the next few hours, and a general north-northwest to north track should continue for the rest of Barry's time as a tropical cyclone. After day three, the remnants of the system should turn north-northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies before dissipating.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/20

Gabrielle is making the most of its small window of relatively light wind shear this evening, carved out by a narrow region between an upper-level anticyclone/cyclone pair. Convection has been growing appreciably in the southwestern quadrant, including several -70C cloud tops appearing on occasion. Microwave data received in the last 6 hours show that the deepest convection is confined to a curved band in the western semicircle. However, the same data shows that Gabrielle has been producing an unusually large amount of ice crystals, whose phase transition may explain how local outflow has been favorable despite the environmental upper-air wind patterns. TAFB estimated T3.5/55kt while SAB remained at T2.5/35kt. Given improvements since the previous advisory, I have increased Gabrielle's intensity to 55 kt. This is in good agreement with the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.
Gabrielle is in the process of turning towards the north and later east-northeast as it navigates an accelerating steering channel produced by an incoming mid-latitude trough, enhanced further by the extratropical remnants of Hurricane Dorian. Gabrielle's forward motion will increase with time as it nears the jet stream and approaches the British Isles.
Despite being north of 30N, Gabrielle has access to sea surface temperatures between 29C-30C. This is aiding convective development, and should continue to be warm enough to support convection over the next day before the waters cool considerably to highly hostile values. Thanks to its origins further southeast, Gabrielle has also dredged a bubble of tropical moisture into the northern Atlantic, which should help sustain the system within the short-term. The combination of these factors support the possibility for slight intensification within the next 24 hours, combined with possible baroclinic enhancement. Afterwards, the combination of the approaching trough and increasingly unfavorable conditions should result in an extratropical transition around day 2-3.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/8

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 6 2018

Beryl has become a bit less organized during the past 12 hours. The pinhole eye disappeared from conventional satellite shortly after 15Z, leaving behind a small central dense overcast. The system appears to be falting under the effects of some light easterly wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.0/65kt from SAB and TAFB at 0z, and given the degradation in overall appearance since earlier today, the initial intensity has been slightly reduced to that strength.

It's hard to evaluate how Beryl may evolve over the next 24 hours. SHIPS analyzed a mere 1kt of shear, but this does not seem accurate based on the storm's current satellite presentation. It remains in a moist environment, and ocean temperatures have increased since yesterday and are more than adequate for intensification. Model guidance has backed off intensification tonight, with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF suggesting that Beryl is close to its peak intensity. Upper-level winds from a TUTT across the eastern Caribbean should begin to affect the storm late tomorrow, and its small stature makes it especially susceptible to unfavorable conditions. Therefore, the intensity forecast has been reduced in the first 36 hours and remains generally constant with the previous forecast thereafter. Beryl is still expected to degenerate to an open trough in about four days.

Model guidance over the past few days has struggled with Beryl, most likely because they're depicted a larger tropical cyclone than what has materialized. Such an error has created significant poleward biases in guidance. With expansive mid-level ridging to the north of the system, a westward track should give way to a more west-northwest motion within 24 hours. That trajectory is expected to continue for the remainder of the period, placing Beryl south of Cuba in 5 days. Most global models and their ensembles suggest the storm should cross Hispaniola and end up in the southwestern Atlantic; however, this seems unlikely for now taking into account the aforementioned biases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 07/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 08/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 08/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 09/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 10/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/7

Gabrielle has the same general convective structure as earlier, with deep convection over its center and in a spiral band that encompasses the northern and eastern quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are unchanged at T2.5/35kt and T3.0/45kt, respectively. ASCAT hit the cyclone at 22z and 0z, showing maximum winds of 45kt. Thus, the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.
The favorable interaction between Gabrielle and the TUTT cell across the North Atlantic is beginning to become an unfavorable one, as southerly wind shear is pushing most convection into the northern semicircle. Upper-level winds should increase further over the next 36 hours, and that should result in some weakening in the short term. After that, wind shear values should fall while mid-level relative humidity values climb and ocean temperatures rise. This should present the opportunity for some intensification after 48 hours. Most model guidance remains bearish regarding this intensification period except the HWRF, which calls for a major hurricane. We have seen many past situations where storms thrive in similar environments, but we have also seen storms that struggle to organize due to unfavorable jet interactions. It is too early to tell which side Gabrielle will lean toward, so for now, the best course of action is to present a forecast very similar to the last one.
There has been no deviation in Gabrielle's northwest motion today, and no deviation is expected until day 4 when mid-latitude westerlies and flow around high pressure near the Azores work in conjunction to force the cyclone northward.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/15

Jerry has remained pretty stagnant this evening. Convection has begun to refire downshear and over the exposed low level centre, showing that Jerry still has some tiny signs of life left in him. Intensity remains at 50 kt due to the lack of change in convective structure from the previous advisory.
Strong mid-level and upper-level shear is really hurting Jerry this evening. On the other hand, the air has moistened slightly recently and the storm is now sporting some banding in all quadrants for the first time in its life. This is unlikely to change the meager outlook on the storm for the next 36 hours until conditions marginally improve. Intensity models are not too keen on the future of Jerry this evening, with even the most bullish ones barely re-achieving hurricane intensity. Global models, which had previously forecasted a favourable interaction with an upper-level trough, have also begun to back away from significant intensification of the system. For this advisory, the intensity forecast remains similar throughout 2 days with a slight lowering of the peak afterwards.
Jerry is rolling along northwestward around the periphery of a mid-level ridge. The system should shortly begin to move towards the north as a result of interaction with an upper-level trough. Shortly thereafter it will have completed it's turn to the northeast. The current track brings the storm very close to Bermuda around day 3.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/39

Dorian continues to evolve this morning as its size increases and its winds decrease. Peak flight-level winds around 105kt and maximum SFMR values around 90kt support an initial intensity of 95kt. While the overall cloud pattern remains organized on conventional satellite, the eye has become obscured. A general leveling off in strength is expected over the next day to day in a half as Dorian finally begins to move and traverses comparatively warmer waters within the Gulf Stream. Beyond that time, an increase in upper-level winds should both shear the storm and inject continental dry air into the hurricane, causing weakening.
Dorian is finally moving this morning, and the initial motion is toward the northwest. A curve toward the north and then an acceleration toward the northeast should occur over the coming days as a shortwave trough over the North United States erodes high pressure off the Southeast coastline. Given this evolution, the eye of Dorian is expected to remain offshore the eastern coast of Florida,, but come dangerously close to both it and the coastline of North Carolina. The system should move east of the Northeast United States in four days and strike either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland in five days as a post-tropical cyclone.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/48

Dorian has weakened a little since earlier, with peak 700mb winds of 91kt and maximum SFMR values of 88kt supporting an initial intensity of 90kt. The minimum pressure has risen slightly to 960mb. Despite this, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains very well organized. Steady weakening is expected over the coming days as upper-level winds increase, helping inject dry air into the circulation. Dorian is also in the initial stages of its jet interaction that should spur extratropical transition between 2 and 3 days from now.
An upper-level trough over the northern United States has eroded high pressure off the Southeast United States, allowing Dorian to turn northeastward. This northeast trajectory should continue generally unabated for the next 5 days, just with increasing acceleration. On this track, Dorian should cross the coastline of eastern North Carolina this evening, impacting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland a little over 2 days from now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Spawner

Spawner
 Mode(s)

**Spawners** are salmon-colored circles with pointy edges scattered around the map in Experimental Mode.

They passively throw pellets out of itself in random directions.

If cells smaller than a spawner go into them, it will kill them and throw their mass around itself as pellets.

When cells feed spawners ejected mass, spawners grow like a fed virus, but shrink back down as they spew what they were fed back in pellets.
Atlantic/2019/11L/Archive/3

Imelda remains well organized on satellite and radar, with a compact low-level circulation positioned near Houston, Texas. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have fallen to 25kt while the central pressure has risen to 1008mb. The system is expected to continue weakening as it moves northward deeper into Texas, and degeneration to a remnant low is expected in about 24 hours. Dissipation is anticipated on day 3.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/14

Aircraft reconnaissance has confirmed that Humberto is beginning to strengthen again now that the eyewall replacement cycle has completed. The latest pass has confirmed that there is an impressive 42 nmi wide circular eye and it is closed. Satellite appearance continues to show a typical ragged eye for a weak category 2 hurricane surrounded by an expanding central dense overcast. Initial intensity is set to 85 kt due to a blend of the 95 kt FL winds found and the 80 kt SFMR from the latest aircraft pass.
Environmental conditions will remain favourable for strengthening and it remains probable that Humberto should be able to attain major hurricane intensity in the next 2 days. The only limiting factors that I can see are unpredictable internal factors, like eyewall replacements and the storms broad size. Beyond day 2, the hurricane will cross the edge of the gulf stream into cooler waters and wind shear will increase. This will result in a quick pace of weakening, with the storm likely to become a post tropical cyclone by day 5.
Humberto is moving at a steady pace towards the east-northeast. It is expected to turn towards the northeast and accelerate further as a result of interaction with a cut off low. The growth in Humberto's size does not bode well for impacts on Bermuda. With an impressive radius of maximum winds and a massive eye, it is entirely possible that Bermuda can get sustained hurricane force winds.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/19

Humberto now appears to have entered a weakening phase, with its eye largely obscured on visible satellite imagery. Radar data from Bermuda shows that the southern eyewall has fully blown open, with the strongest storms now concentrated in a partial band along the northwest flanks of the center of circulation. Both SAB and TAFB lowered their current intensity estimates down to T5.0/90kt, but given the absurdly massive radius of maximum winds observed by recon this morning, I've only dropped the intensity slightly to 100kt.
As we begin to transition to more baroclinic forcings, it seems unlikely that Humberto will be maintaining or in the future regaining major hurricane status. Beginning tonight, the storm will begin to phase into the aforementioned upper-level low and upper-trough, resulting in a rapid evolution of the storm's core tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Most of the storm's convection will likely be sheared away and displaced by and inflow of cold air during this process. This extratropical transition won't complete promptly as Humberto temporarily isolates itself from the trough in about 36 hours, but should be winding down all the while before fully transitioning upon merging with the broader upper-trough afterwards.
Humberto is now making its closest pass of Bermuda, and should remain approximately 80-120 miles northwest of the island. Paired with this morning's reconnaissance data, the current trajectory suggests a high likelihood of Bermuda experiencing sustained winds exceeding 50kt and gusts above hurricane thresholds. Humberto is still caught in a southwesterly steering flow from the broader trough to its north, but will begin to swing north tomorrow in response to a cut-off low detaching from the trough. This will slingshot Humberto in the direction of Nova Scotia, but the storm should be caught in the polar westerlies in roughly two days before reaching the Canadian Maritimes, accelerating towards the far northern Atlantic.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2015/02L/Archive/10

## Public advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 10

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

SUMMARY OF 0400PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION... 33.3N 97.3W

ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM N OF FORT WORTH, TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 KT...30 MPH...50 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 10 KT...11 MPH...19 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 04:00 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at 33.3N, 97.3W, or about 40 miles (60 km) north of Fort Worth, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph, 50 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1003 millibars (hPa; 29.62 inHg), and the system was moving towards the north at 10 knots (11 mph, 19 km/h). Bill is expected to turn northeast and eventually north-northeast in advance of an approaching upper-level trough over the coming days while steadily losing tropical characteristics.

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster Kalassak

## Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

0400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

Tropical Depression Bill continues to be a well-organized system, though its tropical characteristics are deteriorating. Most of the convective activity is located north of the center. The main band's origin appears to be shifting west around the center while the rest of the spiral band extends further east near the coastline. Surface observations reveal that the cyclone continues to maintain a defined low-level center, with minimum pressure around 1003mb. Forecast reasoning remains the same as the last advisory. Slow but steady weakening is as Bill continues to travel inland, and it is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone within 36 hours. The remnant low of the system should become absorbed by an approaching frontal system as the vortex moves on a more northeasterly track.

INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 18/1800Z 35.5N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 19/0600Z 35.9N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW

48H 19/1800Z 36.5N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW

72H 20/1800Z 38.0N 87.5W 15 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW

96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Kalassak
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/2

Humberto remains much the same this morning with its convection displaced to the northeast of the small, but well-defined low-level center. Upper-level outflow to the north and east appears good on infrared satellite but it is impeded on the south and west by west-southwesterly shear from an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. With not much else to say about the cyclone, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.
Wind shear resulting from the aforementioned upper-level low will be the main issue for Humberto in the short term, throughout the day today. Beyond this, an expanding upper-level anticyclone will lower the impeding wind shear. With sea surface temperatures a warm 28C for the duration of the forecast period and mid-level humidity near adequate levels and only dropping slightly, conditions remain ripe for intensification once the storm becomes more vertically stacked. An upper-level trough is also expected to develop on day 3 over the Southeastern United States. For the remainder of the forecast period the trough becomes nestled up against Humberto's upper anticyclone, resulting in some enhanced upper-level divergence and an impressive upper level jet in which Humberto will sit in the right entrance region. This will allow for further support of intensification.
Humberto continues to track northwest around a mid-level inverted trough over the regions of the Bahamas affected by Dorian earlier this month. This motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the day today before it begins to curve north into a weakness in mid-level ridging as it approaches the Florida coastline. The turn will progress toward the northeast on day 3 and eventually east-northeast by day 4 as it is pulled toward a mid-level trough, tracking the cyclone near Bermuda on day 5.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/2

Karen is looking rather disorganized this evening as strong northerly shear has pushed all the convection off the centre. An aircraft reconnaissance plane currently in the system has found sufficient evidence to keep Karen as a tropical storm for the moment.
Karen is unlikely to intensify any time soon, with wind shear from the north of 15-20 kt. This shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt by tomorrow, resulting in an even more hostile environment for Karen. In fact, it seems quite possible to me that Karen may not even survive as a tropical cyclone during this period given its current state. Once Karen exits the Caribbean around day 2, shear is expected to lessen and slow strengthening can commence. The environment will not be perfect for intensification though, with some dry air to contend with, and model consensus is fairly bearish on any intensification in days 3 to 5. The updated intensity forecast is mostly the same as the previous, except showing Karen degenerating back into an open wave over the next day or so before regenerating around day 3.
Karen is moving west-northwesterly at this time and should begin to turn towards the north into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. An abnormally strong ridge is expected to develop north of the system and cut off any northward movement, pushing the storm to the west around days 4 and 5. Model guidance is shockingly set on this forecast, given its complex nature at 5 days out.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/20

Convection has migrated toward the center today as indicated by geostationary satellite imagery, though it remains displaced to the northeast by strong southwesterly shear. The convective structure remains unorganized so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.
Shear remains very high near 40 kt which will keep Jerry steady-state or weakening for the next day or so, although shear is forecast to decrease to moderate levels about 24 hours from now as the upper-trough imparting the shear dips southward away from the storm. Beyond this small window of lower shear, Jerry is expected to be picked up in the mid-latitude westerlies where shear will increase once again, and by this time sea surface temperatures will decrease to marginal levels near 26C. Combined with decreasing mid-level relative humidity this should put the storm on a weakening trend beyond 24-36 hours. Conditions remain marginally favorable to unfavorable the rest of the forecast period.
Jerry continues to track north-northwest into a weakness in the mid-level ridging. This motion will continue until a passing mid-latitude trough sweeps the storm east-northeast. The exact magnitude of latitude increase Jerry will have after the turn tomorrow remains uncertain. Both GFS and ECMWF of the global models take the storm on a dip southeasterly on day 5 as a result of a passing shortwave ridge.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/22

Gabrielle's structure remains much the same this morning, although with warmer convection. The storm presents small, intermittent convective bursts near the southwestern edge of the well-defined low-level center, with ragged banding extending to the west and north. The storm remains not vertically stacked as a result of moderate to high wind shear. Given the generally unchanged character of the storm on infrared satellite, the initial intensity remains 50 kt.
Gabrielle continues to experience strong wind shear near 15-20 kt and it is forecast to increase rapidly today and tomorrow. With sea surface temperatures expected to fall quickly below 26C later today and a very dry surrounding environment, Gabrielle is barely holding on. It should resume weakening later today and begin its transition to an extratropical cyclone by tomorrow. This should be completed fairly quickly by the end of day 2 and the remnants will further dissipate around 72h.
Gabrielle is already beginning to turn toward the northeast, tracking north-northeast for the moment. This turn is expected to be completed near the end of the day as it becomes embedded in the strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow, accelerating as it does so. The extratropical remnants are expected to dissipate as they approach the British Isles.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/21

Gabrielle has become substantially less organized this evening. A 2059z SSMIS microwave pass showed a well-defined mid-level eye, although the low-level circulation was displaced to the northeast due to ongoing wind shear. This pass gives decent confidence in the 55kt intensity assessment this afternoon. Since that time, the coverage and intensity of convection has dwindled, with shallow convection wrapping around the center like seen this morning. Taking into account the decrease in structure, plus most recent satellite intensity estimates, I have lowered the initial strength to 50kt.
Wind shear is already quite hostile around 15-20kt. However, it is forecast to increase significantly more over the coming days, likely reaching values in excess of 35kt while Gabrielle retains tropical characteristics. Ocean temperatures are slowly falling right now and should cool below 26C within 18 hours. Furthermore, mid-level relative humidity values are predicted to tick down into the mid-30s percent. Accordingly, little change in strength is expected over the next 18 to 24 hours, with steady weakening thereafter. Gabrielle is expected to become extratropical in 48 hours and dissipate by day 3.
In contrast to the intensity forecast, the track forecast for Gabrielle has been extraordinarily easy,and it remains so this evening. The cyclone made the turn to the north earlier today, and that motion should continue for the next 12 hours or so before a northeast turn takes place. Gabrielle should accelerate as it moves in that direction. Models remain, as they have for the entirety of the storm, in fantastic agreement.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/15

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 15

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

After roughly a week-and-a-half of monitoring Beryl, it's finally time to say adios to the tenacious cyclone. The waning circulation of Beryl has not generated any sort of widespread organized deep convective activity throughout the day today, with the system now reduced to a swirl of quickly rotating low-level clouds. Unfavorable upper-level winds caused by the unique trough environment Beryl is embedded within is to blame for the ailing storm activity, which has keeping any persistent convective activity to a minimum. Without decent ventilation to recycle moisture, dry air has taken full hold of the system, and the dry environment is now largely capping the circulation. Have not seen much evidence of gale-force winds from marine observations and and GOES-16 visible wind product, with the strongest winds associated with the front to the center's east, so the intensity for this advisory is lowered to 30 kt. The remnants of Beryl are expected to continue tracking northeast towards Newfoundland, though if the system were to survive by that point it would be very weak. Some convective reinitiation is anticipated later tonight into Monday morning as an approaching PV anomaly associated with the shortwave trough passes overhead, but otherwise Beryl appears to be a done deal from here on out.

This is the last advisory on Beryl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 16/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 16/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 17/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/4

The storm's appearance on infrared satellite is consistent, with deep convection firing north of the low-level circulation and strong upper-level outflow toward the north and west. With little change in presentation, the storm's initial intensity remains 35 kt.
Conditions over the the next day or two should be somewhat conducive for some strengthening. Sea surface temperatures will be marginal, but mid-level moisture and wind shear will be favorable. Beginning on day 3, shear will increase steeply as the storm interacts with a TUTT. With the storm forecast to maintain its upper level anticyclone it is possible that despite the shear, the storm will see its upper-level divergence augmented as a result of the TUTT. After this potentially favorable interaction, sea surface temperatures will rise and shear will fall on days 4 and 5, allowing the storm to further strengthen or restrengthen.
While the storm is generally expected to travel toward the northwest into a weakness in the mid-level ridge, and there is little disagreement in the general track, there is some spread in the model guidance as to the true position of the storm, which may affect the quality of its interaction with the TUTT. The storm is expected to make a bit of a shift toward the west on days 4 and 5 as it rounds north of the upper-level low.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/14

Barry continues to have the appearance of an inland tropical cyclone with no central convection. Deep convection is primarily located still over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico with a small band reaching north into southwestern Mississippi as of the past few hours. The center is currently located near Ft. Polk/Peason Ridge where a surface station (KAQV) is reporting a pressure of 1005 hPa. An ASCAT-C pass from 0246z shows winds of at least 40kt still produced over the Gulf. With the storm weakening as it moves inland, the initial intensity has been lowered to this value as well.
Barry continues to track generally north-northwestward over Louisiana. This motion should shift to the north for the next two days or so as it rounds a ridge over the US Southeast and gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. During this time, the storm will become a remnant low. As Barry begins to turn east, around day 3, the low will likely degenerate into an open trough.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2018/05L/Archive/1

Tropical Storm Five Discussion Number 1

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

The area of low pressure situated a few hundred miles west of the Azores has become a subtropical storm. Infrared satellite images show that deep convection has been organized into a comma shape near the low-pressure system, more recently beginning to encapsulate the center. Shortwave imagery and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation had indeed become better defined as compared to its elongated nature earlier today. That same pass showed an area of 35kt winds which is the initial intensity used for this advisory, though it could be conservative by now.

Five is being heavily sheared, but this shear is beginning to decrease and should become at least marginally favorable for the next 72 hours. Water temperatures are expected to hover around 25-26C, which would not typically support tropical transition. However, upper-level temperatures are extremely cold, which should foster more than enough atmospheric instability to produce deep convection over the center eventually. Five is expected to transition to a fully tropical storm in about 24 hours. As it races northeast, it should become involved with a frontal system and track over waters colder than 17C, leading to extratropical transition in about 2 days. It should be fully absorbed by the frontal system a day later.

INIT 15/0900Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 15/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 16/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

36H 16/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 17/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/01Q/Archive/13

Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 13

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

06:00 PM AST Tue Mar 26 2019

The convective activity that grew this morning near Iba's center of circulation has since abated, leaving the center of circulation once again exposed as strong westerly upper-level winds quickly shear any new convection eastwards. New convectie growth this evening is currently limited to a banded region well east of the center, and it appears that a continued local streak in these strong upper-level winds will maintain an unfavorable environment over Iba. SAB estimates have fallen to T2.5/35kt. A blend of the 1212z ASCAT-B scatterometer data and the velocity of the low-level cloud lines supports maintaining the intensity tentatively at 35 kt for this advisory.

There are no changes to either the track or intensity philosophy for this advisory. The system is expected to continue drifting towards the southeast towards a weakeness between two subtropical ridges over the South Atlantic and Uruguay. The impinging subtropical jet jet during this time will continue to shear the system and advect dry air, weakening the tropical storm. The divergent region of the subtropical jet streak may develop a broad trough in the vicinity of Iba's remnants that will likely elongate whatever remains of Iba's circulation are left.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 27/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 27/1800Z 30 KT 40 MPH

36H 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 28/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 29/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY TROUGH
Atlantic/2019/01Q/Archive/19

Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 19

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

6:00 AM AST Thu Mar 28 2019

It is increasingly hard to identify a coherent low-level circulation with Iba. The elongation that was occurring prior to the release of the previous advisory has continued, even as deep convection continues to persist to the south and east of the estimated center. There have been no new scatterometer passes since 0z, and given the lack of high-resolution visible satellite imagery, I have elected to maintain Iba as a 40kt tropical storm for now...but the end is nigh. The continued effects of dry air entrainment and strong westerly wind shear should continue to separate convection from whatever circulation remains, and there is a high probability that Iba dissipates later today.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 28/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/11

Dorian is not a healthy tropical cyclone this morning. Despite a decent appearance on conventional satellite, with an organized convective mass over the low-level circulation and plenty of expanding outflow to the west, observations from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the central pressure has risen since last night. The center is also fairly poorly-organized. Radar frames out of the Windward Islands show little organization to spiral banding features. That being said, data from the recon plane indicate that maximum sustained winds remain around 45kt.
Dorian is moving west-northwest, steered on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge north and east of the Greater Antilles. This ridge will weaken over the next day as a mid-level trough encroaches on it, allowing Dorian to turn toward the northwest as it moves toward Puerto Rico or between that island and the Dominican Republic. At least, that is the most likely solution. An alternate scenario, as we saw around this time four years ago with Tropical Storm Erika, is that the system degenerates and moves more westward over Hispaniola, dying a quick death over the mountainous terrain of that island. Assuming that does not occur, Dorian should progress into the southwestern Atlantic and curve toward the west-northwest again as high pressure builds off the Southeast United States. Such an evolution would send the storm toward Florida about 5 days from now.
Dry air has held Dorian closer to expectations from global models than the dynamical and hurricane guidance that suggested a hurricane by this time. While this dry air is becoming a less prevalent issue as Dorian moves west-northwest into the Caribbean, that remedy will be counteracted by an increase in westerly wind shear about 24 hours from now. Given the current structure of the system, it is increasingly hard to believe that much intensification takes place in the short term, and I have elected to instead show a steady-state system until land interaction, followed by some slight weakening. Once Dorian emerges in the Bahamas, upper-level winds, ocean temperatures, and mid-level relative humidity values should favor intensification. I continue to portray a hurricane near landfall in Florida at the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
Splitting

**Splitting** is an ability.

Splitting can be performed by pressing the `Spacebar` button. When splitting, all your cells which are big enough will split into 2 equal parts, the part that splits is shot with a great speed in the direction that your cursor is facing.

To be able to split you need to have at least 35 mass.

## Merging

Your split cells will have the acquire the ability to merge back together after a certain time after they have been split. To merge two cells back together, just steer one into the other. This can be done by putting your cursor in the middle of the two, so that they will go into each other.

There is a cooldown on merging your cells together meaning that you'll have to wait a certain amount of time to merge after splitting. The cooldown time is calculated as 30 seconds plus 2% of your mass (ex. Mass is 50, cooldown time is 31 seconds).

## Strategy

It can be used as a weapon or as a tactic to survive when you are in a dangerous situation.

Splitting is great for managing the mass of your cells by reducing their size so they lose less mass over time.

Splitting makes you cover a wider area, move quicker, and your camera becomes more zoomed out so that you can see your surroundings more efficiently.

Splitting can be used with ejecting mass to transfer food between your cells.

Bare in mind that a split cell, unlike a single one cell, must be 33% larger than the cell it tries to consume. One single cell only needs to be 10% bigger than its target.

Also, when you split, other players can eat the small cells you split into, as now you are not a single cell anymore, and that opponent that is smaller than you if you aren't splitted could have been easy to eat.
Agar.io:About

The **Agar.io Wiki** is a wiki, based entirely on the browser MMO game *Agar.io*.

## Overview

The *Agar.io* Wiki's goal is to remain a vast, knowledgeable source for all things in *Agar.io*. As the site is a wiki, anybody can edit it, and all are encouraged to do so.

Wikis are often targets for vandalism because of the ability for it to be edited by anyone. However, the Agar.io Wiki is moderated by an user who keep an eye out for vandalism.

## How you can help

It is a good idea that users register an account. This way their IP address can be hidden from public view and they can become part of the community.

*Agar.io* is copyright 2015 to Zeach. The Agar.io Wiki is in no way affiliated with Zeah.

If you see anything that needs changing - change it! If you notice bad grammar, spelling errors, punctuation mistakes, inaccuracies, incompleteness or anything else that needs doing, hit the edit button at the top of the page and correct it yourself.

**Please do not plagiarise copyrighted content from other sites**.

Contribute to the various active discussions we have. The more opinions from the community we get, the better.

You can also help by doing some onerous cleaning duties - checking recent changes for vandalism, creating wanted pages, ensuring that no pages are orphans, making sure that all pages have categories, and generally reorganising information as required.
Mother Cell

Mother Cell
 Removal date
 Mode(s)

The **Mother Cell** was a huge circle existing only in Experimental Mode and located in the middle of the map. It ejected pellets out of itself in random directions, therefore spawning 10% \ 1/7 of the food. The mother cell also ejected any mass it eats into pellets.

A cell larger than it that attempts to eat it will be split up and gain 222 mass, similar to a virus. The large amount of food surrounding the mother cell leads to a high concentration of smaller cell activity, which brings larger cells to the mother cell as well. Using the mother cell for food/hunting is a high risk, high reward activity.

You also have to keep in mind the fact that if you try to move towards the mother cell with a cell smaller than it, you will get devoured!

It was solid, therefore cells couldn't pass through it.

The Mother Cell was added on 2015-06-11 and removed the next day.

## References

1. ↑ http://www.reddit.com/r/Agario/comments/39f475/todays\_experiment/
2. ↑ http://agar.io/changelog.txt
Cell

**Cells** are the units that you control.

In the normal or FFA Mode your colour is random and you will still have a coloured outline if you use a skin.

To control your units you must move your cursor to the point to which you want them to move. They will then move in that direction.

### Teams

*Main page: Teams Mode*

In Teams Mode, all the players are assigned to one of the 3 teams and receive the corresponding colour of either blue, red or green. Skins are disabled in this mode, but there are different shades of the team color to give some variety.

## Abilities

### Splitting

*Main page: Splitting*

You can Split your cells into 2 equal parts by pressing the space bar. (Note: The split ability can be used more than once) When a player splits, all of their cells will divide into half, accelerating towards the mouse cursor. The speed at which this is done is determined by the mass of the cell. The maximum number of cells a player can have without the aid of viruses is 16.

### Ejecting

*Main page: Ejecting*

You can Eject tiny fragments of all your cells by pressing the W button which act as food for any player to eat (including yourself). You can use this in Teams mode to help out your allies by donating them food. Players with less than 35 mass cannot eject mass. When you press W, 16 mass will be ejected, though, only 12 mass will be picked up again.

## Growth

*Main page: Mass*

To grow you must collect Food or eat other cells. Your cell loses mass over time, more quickly with more mass. This forces players with large cells to consume other players to continue growing because food won't compensate for mass loss with large cells.
Options

\**Options** are settings you can customize to how you want. You can set them before spawning or in-game by pressing the `Esc` key.

## List of Options

### No names

Doesn't show any names on cells and disables the leaderboard for you if you are playing in FFA Mode.

If you are playing Teams Mode it will only not show names and show the pie chart leaderboard.

### Dark Theme

Instead of white, the whole background becomes rainbow

### Show mass

Shows the numerical mass of each of your cells.