Episode 1129: The Darvish Dodgers Difference

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the all-time leaders in WAR for two teams, what Yu Darvish has done differently with the Dodgers, and whether Carlos Correa or Corey Seager will have the more valuable career, then answer listener emails about home-field advantage in the playoffs, projecting (and learning from) Charlie Morton’s breakout, why baseball is in a high-BABIP era, whether fielders are getting better or worse, the golden age of interleague play, what we mean when we say “short series,” challengers to Jamie Moyer’s home runs allowed record, and more.*

## Topics

* Home-field advantage in the playoffs
* Charlie Morton and predicting breakouts
* Why baseball is in a high BABIP era
* Judging fielding quality and impact of positioning
* Increase in interleague play
* Pitchers with low strikeout rates
* Defining a short playoff series
* Most home runs allowed record

## Banter

* Ben and Jeff discuss Ben's 'Iron Man' streak of not missing podcast episodes. Ben thinks that he has missed 3 episodes of Effectively Wild but cannot remember the last time he missed a recording.
* All-time San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins WAR leaders
* Positive changes the Dodgers made with Yu Darvish
* Predicting career success for Carlos Correa and Corey Seager

## Email Questions

* Scott: "This year home teams are 23-8. This is well above the 54% I have seen cited as the average home field advantage. Is this just noise or something real going on?"
* Nicholas: "At the start of the year I believe Jeff had positive things to say about Charlie Morton the reason being a small sample of higher velocity. Was there anything else that made people think Morton would do well? What else can be taken into account to show that the projections might be wrong?"
* Charles: "Of the top 20 career BABIP leaders since 1920, 13 of them are active players. Why is this?"
* Dennis: "I realize I've had this perception that baseball is in an era of defensive excellence. However I might just be mistaking optimized positioning for better fielding. Have errors actually gone down?"
* David: "I agree that there are no fans who are fans of the entire league but if such fans did exist now would be the time. We're living in a golden age of interleague baseball."
* Olga: "There was a reference in the last episode to things that can happen in a short series. Can you address that concept? A seven game series (and even the five game division series) will be the longest series any team has had all season. Who started calling playoff series a short series and why? Can we stop?"
* Dylan: "Jamie Moyer holds the record for most home runs allowed in a career (522 home runs). Do you think anyone will ever break that record and if so are there any likely candidates?"

## Notes

* Carlos Correa and Corey Seager each have a career wRC+ of 135.
* Since 2010 the home team in playoff games have gone 155-125.
* There are fewer errors in MLB than in the past as measured by fielding percentage.
* Andrew Vargha is currently working on a video that includes several instances of Jerry Blevins walking pitchers with the bases loaded.
* Bartolo Colon is the active leader for most home runs allowed (407).

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1129: The Darvish Dodgers Difference
* Yu Darvish Reflects How the Dodgers Excel by Jeff Sullivan
* Who Ya Got, Generational Shortstop Edition: Houston's Carlos Correa or L.A.'s Corey Seager? by Ben Lindbergh