2017 Trade Wednesday

## 2017 Trade Talk

In a season full of action, surprises, upsets, comebacks, controversy, and ducks, a day as insane as Wednesday, November 1, 2017 deserved its own post.

I don't know if Trade Wednesday was a result of the veto period moving from two days to one but the action this season has been unprecedented.

November 1st is a day that will live in LOC lore. Never have we seen this many players moved between teams on one day. Unquestionably, the fate of half the league has been determined, one way or another, by the events that unfolded.

While it deserves its own writeup, I will keep things brief. We all have things to do today (and by "things to do" I mean football to watch).

## The Deadline

On Tuesday, October 31st, ma ma momma said engaged in trade negotiations with as many as four teams. After their loss to Paddock 9 in week eight, the season was all but over. It would take a win-out to stand a chance at grabbing the six-seed, a bit of a stretch even with Bell and Elliot. But Elliot was now once again facing a six-game suspension.

Six games, starting week nine, positions Zeke for a return during the semi-finals of the Festival of Champions.

Of course, there was a chance that his emergency appeal granted a temporary stay of the suspension yet again. I have lost count of how many times he has been re-unsuspended but let's just say it's around the fifth time.

But the dam broke when Jay Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, a move that immediately brought Ajayi back into the fantasy conversation. The insane NFL trade deadline also sent Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills.

Half the league instantly became interested in a move with MMMS, who, as previously stated, was already looking at a second straight consolation tournament run.

## Four Becomes Three

By noon on Halloween, one of the four primary owners engaged in negotiations had dropped out of the hunt for Ajayi and Elliot.

Paddock 9, who has been trying to build on his young RB corps, was willing to part with a draft pick but not a very high one. Let's not forget Paddock 9 sent Ajayi to MMMS last season and even paid MMMS in draft picks for the privilage.

Paddock 9 expressed very little interest in Elliot and withdrew from negotiations when MMMS was not pleased with the draft picks being offered.

## He's a Keeper

With three teams remaining, momma had plenty of takers, and began playing offers off one another to drive up the price. Perhaps no team was more eager for a shot in the arm than GBM, who was riding a four game losing streak.

GBM was coming off of the biggest trade in their franchise history when they sent Tom Brady to RIPDab for Chris Thompson. Though lost in the annals of history, this is actually the second time GBM has sent Tom Brady to another team in exchange for a runningback with the first name Chris. In 2014, GBM traded Tom Brady for Chris Ivory after Brady's week four disaster against the Kansas City Chiefs. We all know how that story ended. Thanks to the first of two historical #MattJinxes, Brady moved on to Cincinnati and a fourth Lombardi, and both GBM and P9 missed the playoffs.

While TDP and TSB were both offering players for Elliot, GBM was ready to part with draft picks and players in order to grab both Elliot and Ajayi.

The tone changed when MMMS and GBM began discussing Michael Thomas as a possible option. GBM considers Thomas their WR1 and their most valuable player because he is a very valuable keeper. When the talk of keepers came up, MMMS removed Ajayi from the table due to his value as a keeper.

## The Trade That Wasn't

GBM has been high on Tate for the entire season, but finally he was willing to give him up. GBM also felt he could dump Philly D and Kroft at no cost to his future. MMMS and GBM drew up the following trade:

 Darren McFadden
 Robert Woods
 Terrelle Pryor Sr.
 11th Round Pick
 12th Round Pick

This trade was what GBM felt comfortable offering given the likelihood of Zeke actually serving the six games effective immediately.

However, as bang-bang as Matt Jinxes can be, no sooner was the trade accepted than Zeke's appeal was denied in court and his suspension began on the spot.

Several members of the league did not feel it was fair for a trade to go through when a player's status has changed post-acceptance/pre-conclusion of the veto period.

League rules dictate that 40% of the league must veto in order for a trade to be reversed and that is exactly what happened less than 24 hours later. Just like that, Zeke was back on the table. Now it was mid-day on Wednesday, November 1st, and the action was just beginning.

## Meanwhile...

Paddock 9 might have removed himself from the discussion for Zeke or Ajayi, but he was still looking for a new starting RB. For that, he went back to a player he had been circling for almost a month...and this time he got his man.

Paddock 9 has always liked rookie Christian McCaffrey. he is a player who has plenty of grit. He is a PPR gem (and a non-factor in non-PPR, but let's not go there). But when Kelvin Benjamin was shipped off to Buffalo, McCaffrey once again became the apple of Paddock's eye. What could be better than a Runningback nearly leading the league in targets playing for a team that just traded its top receiver?

Unlike earlier this season, Papa was ready to deal. The following trade went through:

 9th Round Pick
 12th Round Pick
 14th Round Pick

The Zeke suspension brought Alfred Morris to the forefront in all fantasy formats, and Papa obviously feels he has a chance to be the RB1 in Dallas during Zeke's vacation. Ameer Abdullah has literally been a pile of shit with legs this season, but PP was so frustrated with his team's performance he was ready to take a chance on fresh blood.

The decision to trade even numbered picks is an obvious way for P9 to upgrade Papa's position with little risk to himself. If Papa finishes out of the playoffs he will have high picks in the odd rounds and low picks in the even rounds. So him swapping even rounds with P9 is actually him moving to the top half of the round, which is good.

McCaffrey can pair with Aaron Jones as a very surprising but exciting 1-2 RB punch for P9, who has responded VERY well to the loss of Cooks and Beckham. So far.

## What's COOKing?

Just when you thought things were now going to settle down, that's when things got crazy. Both The Shotti Bunch and The Duck Punchers made it clear to MMMS that their offers from the day before still stood. Momma reopened talks with both, and continued to bargain with GBM to try and gain at least Kroft and Philly defense, if not Tate and Garcon.

While The Shotti Bunch was offering a higher draft pick but a lesser player, momma felt best about the following trade, which was accepted at 8:49pm.

 5th Round Pick
 9th Round Pick

The obvious benefit for TDP is that if the suspension is lifted, he has himself a mighty weapon. If it is not and he serves six straight, DP has that same weapon if he makes it to the semi-finals. Of course, the loss of Cooks makes that a little more difficult. And if he were to lose the bye, he'd have to win a playoff game without Zeke before getting him back and hoping that he isn't rusty.

The benefit to everyone else is that Ezekiel Elliot does not go to a team that is already loaded with Gurley, McCoy, and Gordon.

The traded picks look off at first, but consider that on Halloween momma realized the value of Ajayi as a keeper. Ajayi is worth a 5th round pick as a keeper next year. By trading his 5th pick, it now bumps Ajayi's keeper spot to the 6th round. Duck Punchers gains a 5th, which is Hunt's keeper round. DP will now have a keeper plus a pick in that round if he chooses to keep Hunt.

## One Last Punch

At this point you would think that Duck Punchers was done. But they were not. At 9:56pm the most surprising trade of all came through:

 Duke Johnson Jr.

Since no picks were traded here, this trade is pretty clear to me: Sweet Dee still thinks she is in this race. After all, Dee is one game behind 7th place GBM and only two games back from JarJar Stinks, who sits in a playoff position. Consider this: JarJar and Pain Train (each 4-4) play this week. Even if GBM wins, the 6 seed after this week is guaranteed to be 4-5. ***If Sweet Dee wins, she is just one game out of a playoff spot with four games left to play.***

Duck Punchers clearly wants to cash in on what they believe was the high point of JuJu's season. Is JuJu a real deal of a fluke? SD believes real deal, DP believes fluke. Speaking of fluke, the Duke has cooled off of late and DP believes he is not a necessary keep.

Duck Punchers is very happy with how AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins have performed and build up strength at the RB position with this trade. It remains to be seen if Miller can recoup the value lost with the trade of Cooks to MMMS. They are almost even in points scored on the season and Miller has been hot so it is possible that all this does nothing but net-zero for DP.

## Fallout

So much has happened since Trade Wednesday.

### DeShaun WAT-HAPPENED-son

The biggest news is the loss of Deshaun Watson. That effects three teams (one directly and two indirectly).

Pain Train, who turned down a trade for Brady a week ago, now has lost two MVP candidate QBs in the last three weeks.

Paddock 9, who struck gold with Will Fuller, saw the value of his breakout WR drop significantly. Fuller sees a 58% decrease in fantasy points per game when Watson does not play.

And The Duck Punchers has to wonder how much DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller's value is going to drop with the loss of Watson. Duck Punchers traded away Cooks with the understanding that Hopkins and Green were his guys. Hopkins was seeing 45% more production with Watson under center. If the pass game goes, defenses will be able to stack the box against the run. Miller has seen a 16% FPG decrease with no Watson. DP put all his eggs in one basket and all of a sudden it doesn't look like a very good basket.

#### Pierre Gar-Gone

One day after Pierre was supposed to be traded to MMMS he was placed on season-ending IR with a neck injury suffered in week eight. With Kroft and Philly as merely backups, GBM's trade would now have essentially been Zeke, Woods, McFadden, Pryor for Golden Tate. But that trade was vetoed. Now GBM has a filled IR-spot.

### Zeke..more like YEEK!

Zeke Zigs and Zags through the court process, and is eligible to play in week nine. But is this a blessing or a curse for Duck Punchers? In the scenario where Zeke missed six weeks starting week 9, he's back for the semi-finals. But since he's playing week nine, a six-game suspension now means he is out until week 16, the week of Glory Bowl VII. At that point, will Duck Punchers still be in the mix? If the suspension is pushed and starts even one more week later (week 11), his fantasy season is done.

In the meantime, Alfred Morris becomes useless and that was 33% of the Papa/Paddock trade on Wednesday. With Morris being dead weight, Papa traded McCaffrey (ranked 13th among all RBs in the LOC) for Abdullah (ranked 33rd).

## Where Do We Go From Here?

The future is not yet written. However, I believe the three trades and one veto that occurred on November 1st will dictate the fate of all teams involved. I feel very strongly that the Glory Bowl was decided by Trade Wednesday.

For GBM: what would they look like with no Tate? Would that have tanked their season, or would Zeke end up being the asset late in the year that they needed to take home the title? The veto swung their season, but which way?

For Paddock 9: Being denied Jay Ajayi opened the door for a huge trade for Christian McCaffrey. Is this the RB2 they have been looking for? Or was Ajayi truly the answer? One thing is for sure, P9 is a winner on Trade Wednesday, as he risked very little and got a potential keeper and asset.

For The Shotti Bunch: What would a team with every good runningback look like? They were so close to landing Zeke Elliot that their back to back trophies was probably the only reason they don't currently have the top four runningbacks in football. No one wanted to deal with the champ. Did this moment cost them a third straight? Or would Zeke have ended up costing their team the title?

For Sweet Dee: Is there life for this struggling franchise? They looked great last week and now have turned Willie Snead into some good JuJu. Their season hangs in the balance in week 9 against who else but The Duck Punchers!

For Papa's Pussies: With heart set on Thielen and Ertz as his keepers, was the decision to dump McCaffrey a smart one, or did it kill a season prematurely?

For ma ma momma said: Could this trade actually ignite a run for momma? They turned a player projected for zero points the rest of the season into a much-needed wide receiver who is 5th in the league in reception yards.

For The Duck Punchers: They either won or lost a championship on Trade Wednesday. HUGE moves with two different teams gives DP a completely new look.

The trade deadline is still weeks away so we could be seeing more before this is all over.

Who do YOU think won Trade Wednesday? Vote here.