2020s - East Rising

The year is 2024, and the world stands poised for great change.

In the Middle-East:

ISIS is no more, and in their wake dozens of smaller radical groups have popped up. Gone is the optimism and any remaining semblance of religious zeal- replaced by a bitterness and determination to inflict harm to as much of the West as possible. Since the election of President Donald J Trump in late 2016, American support operations in Syria have increased. The United States Air Force scours the airspace, and together with Marine Artillery and USSOCOM anything even remotely associated with the would-be caliphate is turned to ash.

With a shift in American foreign policy towards a strong-arm approach, Iran has been put on the defensive. In a bid to finally put to rest tensions in the middle east before his time in office is over, President Trump has urged Secretary of Defense General James N. Mattis to put increasing pressure on the radicalized Iranian regime. What started as a twitter feud in 2018 has turned into an arms race- with Iran unable to keep up due to improving American-Russian relations. Seeking a new means of Industrial patronage, the Ayatollah has turned to China for help.

Hamas, crippled by the decrease in Iranian support due to Iran's emphasis on keeping American influence contained, is forced to take matters into their own hands. The gaza strip has once again devolved into a war zone. As per usual, the IDF holds strong in their war of survival, but Hamas’ decision to declare an open Jihad upon the Jewish state has brought forth some of east Africa’s most dangerous Islamic radical groups seeking new homes and wealth through the eradication of Israel.

In Europe:

Since 2019 France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have been on nearly constant high alert. Tension between their relatively large (and growing) islamic populations and the governments has resulted in more deadly attacks like those of January 7, 2015 in Paris. It is colloquially known as the “Age of Terror” in the region.

In late 2019 the Russian Federation's economy teetered on the edge of total collapse due to US pressure on NATO allies to greatly reduce their trade with Russia. With the Russian Ground Forces seriously lacking in funding and morale, Chechnya ignites into a civil war against the Putin regime, this time largely inspired by the ideals of radicalized Islam. As of 2022, American and Russian relations have mostly normalized, with President Putin citing a need to “band together the strongest nations of the West against the common enemy of Islam”. Despite an offer to match US GDP percentage contribution on defense spending, Russia is still kept out of NATO. Germany and France cite a fear of “unchecked Russian influence” in their veto.

Serbia, Bulgaria, and the long forgotten Malta begin to gather about them Christian Radicals in order to combat the “rising tide of radical Islam” threatening to sweep across Europe.

In 2022, as a response to the increase in Russo-American relations and President Putin’s inflammatory comments on Islam, Turkey withdraws from NATO. The United States immediately imposed heavy sanctions and demanded the return of NATO-shared nuclear weapons provided to Turkey by the United States. All but three of the warheads were returned after United Nations intervention, with the Turkish administration claiming the missing warheads were “safely disposed of due to maintenance issues”.

Thanks to increased pressure from the United States, much of NATO finally began to meet their defence spending quotas in 2020. The relative stability of NATO is a stark contrast to the rapidly devolving European Union, with Italy and Poland both having elected to leave it’s umbrella by late 2020, citing a lack of faith in the leadership of Berlin and Paris as well as an opposition to “refugee quotas” being imposed upon them.

The long-standing Ramstein Air Base, home of NATO allied air command, is severely downgraded in 2022 as the United States transfers much of Ramstein’s facilities and responsibilities to the newly constructed Bydgoszcz Airbase in Poland. When questioned on the motives of the move, Secretary of Defense Mattis cited a “need to ensure the continued safety of American service men and women abroad”. Critics of the administration claim this is a snub to Germany, and largely inspired by Poland’s promise of $2 billion to support an American base within their borders.

In Central/South America:

The cornucopia of cartels stands poised to become a global player. The black markets there flourish, their goods being found at all four corners of the world. Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, and  Bolivia have destabilized into illicit paradises. Weapons, drugs, and a multitude of other contrabands are smuggled into the less-reputable locations of the world daily. The governments of these countries are all either complicit, or coerced into cooperation. With assistance from it’s (renegotiated) NAFTA partners, Mexico managed to stabilize itself and now stands as a buffer between the United States and the relative chaos of Central/South America.

In Africa:

After an unsuccessful trade war with the United States, China has devoted even more of its focus on the development of its trade prospects and relationships in Africa. As of 2009, China has been the continent’s largest trade partner- and since then has funded much of the infrastructural and technological growth in the region. From 2010 to 2014 alone, the Sino-African trade had increased from $10 billion to $220 billion.

Both China and Africa proclaim a new, mutually beneficial economic, political, and regional alliance. China sees a source for raw materials and energy, desperately needed to support its feverish industrial and economic growth. Success in this quest means high employment and a higher quality of life for Chinese citizens, as well as increasing social stability and political security for Chinese elites.

This has the following effects:

Chinese oil companies are gaining the invaluable experience of working in African nations which will prepare them for larger projects on the far more competitive world market. The efficiency of Chinese assistance, loans, and proposals generally been praised. Finally, Chinese industry has found in Africa a budding market for its low-cost manufactured goods.

Chinese diaspora in Africa have been actively supported by Chinese embassies, continuously building the 'Blood Brother' relation between China and Africa as perceived victims of Western imperialism.

African leaders earn legitimacy through Chinese partnerships. They work together with the Chinese to provide Africa with key structural infrastructure—roads, railways, ports, hydroelectric dams, and refineries—fundamentals which will help Africa avoid the "resource curse". Success in this endeavor has meant avoiding the exploitation of their natural wealth and the beginning of fundamental social and economic transformations on the continent.

African countries partnering with China are signing with a world superpower. In Africa, this Chinese alliance provides strong psychological consequences. It provides economic hope and shows African elites an example of success which they may take as exemplars of their own future. Writer Harry Broadman commented that if Chinese investments in key sectors of infrastructure, telecommunication, manufacturing, foods, and textiles radically alter the African continent, the main change will have taken place in African minds. With the recent growth and economic improvement, more Africans students are returning to Africa after studies abroad in order to bring their skills and industry home.

As a result, much of Europe and the United States’ influence in Africa has rapidly dwindled. This has ramifications both economically and politically. Units like the French Foreign Legion, once regularly deployed to regions of Africa formerly under French Colonial control, find themselves no longer called upon or welcomed by African nations.

In the Far East:

Having lost it’s only real ally in North Korea due to rapidly stabilizing NK-US relations, Chinese expansionism seaward has become increasingly more desperate.

After altering the post-war pacifist approach of Japanese defense  in 2020, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has put his country well on the path to being a viable threat to China. Coupled with their unconventional alliance with South Korea, Chinese aggression is being met with increasingly equal displays of force.