Horse racing systems

Here is a collection of free Australian horse racing systems that have either been sent, come across, or found in some remote places that we have discarded or not had the time to look in to them to see if they actually work. If you are going to "play" with any on them, do it on paper first. *Do not* invest on them with real money before you know if they are profitable or not. We take *no responsibility* for any outcome you may achieve with these - good or bad! As they say in the classics: *travel at your own risk*!!

Unless otherwise stated, bet level stakes to win on each selection.

### References

CDSystems

Free horse racing systems

RaceRate.com

RaceRate.com (archive)

*Winning Post*

### Additions

1. Consider only welters and open handicaps and class 6 races and 0-82 and better.

2. Eliminate any horse not starting from barriers 1 to 10.

3. Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the last 30 days (inclusive).

4. Eliminate any horse beaten by 6 lengths or more at its last start.

5. Eliminate any female horse in a mixed-sex race.

6. Eliminate any horse that is odds on.

7. The selection is then the remaining horse whose price, added to its weight, returns the lowest total.

### Adelaide only

From the limited testing we have seen of this plan, it does appear to be quite effective but mostly in Adelaide. It does not throw up many bets but seems to have a quite good strike rate of over 40%. Again, insufficient testing done at this stage so travel at your own risk.

Rules:

1) Use this plan on Saturday metropolitan meetings in Adelaide only.

2) Consider only the first and second favourites.

3) Consider only races with a maximum of 15 runners.

4) Eliminate any horse that started more than 15 days ago.

5) Eliminate any horse who did not finish in a place at its last and second-last start.

6) Eliminate any horse that, if it didn't win, was beaten by 3 lengths or more at its last start.

### Against the short prices

Rules:

In any race where the pre-post betting market predicts an odds-on favourite, bet the second-named horse in the pre-post betting market.

Logic:

Short-priced favourites win less often than they are given credit for. As a betting medium, they offer little value in general terms. The true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder.

### All the ticks

(*Winning Post*, 6 February 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Eliminate any horse with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 3: We're working only with horses that have raced this time in.

Step 4: Of those, eliminate any that started at more than $10 last outing.

Step 5: Eliminate any who finished more than three lengths from the winner last outing.

Step 6: Eliminate any who have to carry more weight (after any apprentice claims) than they had last start.

Step 7: Eliminate any who are dropping in distance.

Step 8: Eliminate any who have drawn 10 or wider.

Step 9: If you need a tie-breaker, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Amazing hotpots, aka Hopeful hotpots

This system has been thrown up regularly by one of those punting magazines as the be-all and end-all of systems. We haven't tried it, but here are the rules:

1) Eliminate any horse that is not pre-post favourite according to the morning newspaper.

2) Eliminate any contender unless it won its last start within the previous 21 days.

3) Eliminate any contender unless it won or was placed in two of its last three starts.

4) Eliminate any contender that has not run within 100 metres of today's distance in at least one of its last three starts.

### Backing the best horses

Rules:

1. Bet to win on the horse with the highest official rating at each meeting.

2. When more than one horse shares the top official rating at a meeting, there will be no bet for that meeting.

Logic:

Superior class is often enough to pull a horse through, even when prevailing conditions may not be ideal. This simple trial will assess whether punters underestimate class, particularly when other factors appear negative. According to the official handicapper, the horses backed are all the best on view at their respective meetings.

### Barrier burst

Operates on any race except maidens, class 1 or 0-57.

Don’t bet on straight track races or races 2000m or more.

Don’t bet on rain-affected tracks.

Place a tick beside any horse numbered one to four that also starts from barrier 1, 2, 3 or 4.

If no ticks, back the favourite in the race.

If only one horse has a tick, it is the selection.

If two horses are ticked, back both.

If there are three or four ticks, and the favourite isn’t one of them, back the longest-priced ticked horse.

### Barriers supreme, aka Starters to barriers

1) Consider only those runners drawn in the inside third of the barriers.

 15-17 | 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

2) Eliminate any horse that has not won at the distance (plus or minus 100 metres).

3) Eliminate any horse that did not win or run a place at its last start.

4) If more than one contender, take the one with the best jockey (in your opinion).

### Beaten favourites after a rest

Rules:

Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has had a break of more than 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view of gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.

This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal.

The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form runners.

### Beaten favourites facing lesser opposition

Rules:

1. Operate only on handicap races.

2. Look for runners that were beaten favourites on their latest run.

3. If any of these beaten favourites are clear top on official ratings for today's race, bet them to win.

Logic:

Beaten favourites tend to have a better chance of recouping previous losses if they face lesser opposition on their next run. If they are at the top of the handicap, that will very often be the case.

### Beginners luck

This system is for use at midweek provincial and country meetings and is not designed for use at city tracks.

Rules:

1. Use only in Maidens, Class 1, Class 2 and Class 3 handicap races (Up to 68 Class races in the new terminology).

2. Eliminate any race longer than 1600 metres.

3. Eliminate any race with less than ten runners.

4. Eliminate any horse that is not top weight or equal top weight.

5. Eliminate any horse not ridden by a claiming apprentice.

### Benchmark bankers

(*Winning Post*, 23 January 2021)

Step 1: Look only at benchmark races where apprentices can claim and every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Ignore any horses that the handicapper has weighted on the limit (minimum).

Step 3: Consider the remaining horses to be ridden by claiming apprentices.

Step 4: Eliminate any horse marked at $16 or above in the pre-post market.

Step 5: If you're left with more than one selection, take the one with the highest Whiteway rating.

Step 6: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### The benefit of previous experience

Rules:

In races where more than half the field is unraced, place an each-way bet on the shortest-priced runner with previous experience.

For price comparison, use the pre-post market.

If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there is no bet for that race.

Staking:

Each way on each selection.

Logic:

The benefit of previous experience is often understated in the betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often beat a more illustrious newcomer making its first visit to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will eventually develop into a much better prospect.

No matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first time.

A runner that has seen it all before is likelier to show its true form or improve on what it has already shown.

### Better class

1) Bet only in races Class 6 (0-89) or better.

2) Eliminate every horse that hasn't started in the previous 21 days.

3) Eliminate any horse that has not had at least 5 starts since a spell.

4) Eliminate any female horse running against male horses.

5) Eliminate any horse aged 8 or older.

6) Total the starting prices for the last three runs of remaining contenders and eliminate any whose total is greater than 13.

7) If more than one contender remains, the selection is the one with the most wins in the last five starts.

### Big concessions

Rules:

In handicap races only, select the sole topweight that gives the largest weight differential between a top and a second-top weight.

Logic:

The horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as the best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class advantage.

The effect of weight is often overstated, so the class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.

### Big race press selections

Rules:

1. Each day, locate the race with the highest winner's prize money. If there is more than one qualifying race, bets will be made in each.

2. Next, look at the tipsters' poll for that race.

3. Identify the runner with the most top selections.

4. If more than one runner has attracted the highest number of top selections, there will be no bet for that particular race.

Logic:

Press correspondents tend to spend a lot more time and effort analysing the day's big race than they do lesser events. From a newspaper's point of view, this makes sense for two reasons: firstly, the readership is likely to be more interested in the big race than in lesser events. Secondly, it makes a better subsequent headline to report the selection of a big race winner than that of a lesser event winner.

This trial will determine whether there is any value in following the consensus of these correspondents in the races that attract their best efforts.

### Bonus favourites

This is one of our favourite systems that not only really focus your betting on the best horses but also restricts the number of bets in a year severely.

Rules:

1. Any selection must be equal or outright favourite.

2. Ignore any horse that hasn’t started in the previous 14 days.

3. Eliminate any horse that didn’t win at its last outing or finished more than 2 lengths behind the winner.

4. Eliminate any horse that has not won on today’s track condition.

5. Eliminate any horse without a win strike rate of better than 20%.

6. Eliminate any horse carrying more than 2.5kg more than its last start.

7. Eliminate any horse at odds-on.

8. Eliminate any horse that has not won at today’s distance.

### Bred to swim

(*Winning Post*, 27 March 2021)

Step 1: Look only at meetings where the track is soft or heavy.

Step 2: Look at the Bred to Swim table in the *Winning Post*.

Step 3: Look at the sire table in the left column.

Step 4: Note the three sires that have produced the highest number of wet-track winners and the sire with the highest percentage of the top two.

Step 5: Go through the fields and look for horses who are sired by any of those four.

Step 6: If there is only one in the race, it is the selection.

Step 7: If you need a tie-breaker, take the horse that has won the most races on soft and heavy tracks. If still equal, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 8: If still equal, take the one in the widest barrier (if the rails are off).

### Bush bashers

* Operate only on non-metropolitan meetings every day of the week.
* Eliminate any horse who ran a place or won last start.
* Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 5 days ago.
* Eliminate any horse drawn worse than barrier 12.
* Eliminate any horse who has never won on this track before.
* Eliminate any horse over 10 years old.

### By prize money

1) Operate only on metropolitan meetings and strong provincial meetings.

2) Operate only on open handicaps, welters, WFA, Group races.

3) The only contender is the horse that's won the most prize money.

4) Eliminate any contender showing less than $4.80.

5) Eliminate any contender whose win strike rate is less than 25%.

6) Eliminate any contender not being ridden by a senior jockey.

### Captains table

This system seems to work because you are looking for only horses in winning form at the peak of their form, with as little time as possible in between starts in which they may have “trained off”.

Rules:

1. Selection must have won its last start.

2. Selection is the horse with the least number of days since its last start.

3. If more than one horse is equal, discard the race.

### The CD system

Rules:

Bet any horse that is the only previous course and distance (C) winner in the race, provided there are no other previous course winners in the line-up.

Course winners over other trips do not qualify, even though they may have won over today's trip on a different track.

Logic:

The logic behind the system is fairly obvious. Many horses have their favourite tracks and have an optimum distance. If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over today's course and distance, it has much less to prove than its rivals.

There are other important form criteria, such as race class and ground conditions. Still, the essence of this series of systems is simplicity. Horses are often unfancied due to other criteria but are selected because they comply with a simple system that means it can find the bigger prices that more scrupulous study would often dismiss.

### CD winners returning fresh

Rules:

1. Identify all previous course/distance winners running today (denoted C in the formguide).

2. Select only those C winners returning from a break of 100 days or more.

3. If more than one is in the same race, there is no bet for that particular race.

Logic:

One of the previous trials established a potential for obtaining value from betting runners returning from absences, mainly because punters are often discouraged from supporting them.

Given their proven suitability to conditions, previous C winners returning from absences may have been placed to win first time back. The aim of this trial is to determine whether these runners are underestimated in the market.

### City certs

This system is designed to identify the best chance between highly fancied horses in the same race. In this case, we have restricted it to the top two in betting, and it appears to work best on city tracks.

Rules:

1. The only possible selection is either the favourite or equal favourite in any race.

2. To be a betting proposition, the total points from the following criteria should be at least 220.

3. Better than $2.00 (evens) in the betting: 40 points.

4. Won at today’s distance: 40 points.

5. Win strike rate of at least 20%: 40 points.

6. Last start winner or finished within 2 lengths of the winner: 50 points.

7. Last start within the last 14 days: 50 points.

8. Last start 15-21 days: 20 points.

9. Winner on today’s track condition: 50 points.

10. Staying the same weight or rising less than 2.5kg: 40 points.

### Claiming jockeys in handicaps

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on handicap races.

2. Look for handicap races in which there is only one claiming jockey (a jockey claiming a weight allowance, which is noted after their name).

3. That horse is the selection.

Logic:

Trainers often use claiming jockeys to gain a weight advantage against the other runners in a handicap. When there are several claiming jockeys riding in a race, their weight advantages are compromised. Still, when there is only one runner with a claiming jockey, it has a weight advantage against the field.

### Class trifectas

1) The only horses for consideration are the six top average prize money earners (total prize money divided by the number of starts).

2) Eliminate any of these whose win strike rate is less than 20%.

3) Narrow down the remaining contenders by looking only at the three with the most wins.

4) Still a tie between contenders for the third position, go with the one with the most recent start.

5) If you still can't get the final contenders down to three, skip the race.

### Come back again

1) Eliminate any horse that is not top weight by at least 2kg in any handicap event (after scratchings).

2) Eliminate any horse that has not won at the distance of today's event.

3) Eliminate any horse that is handicapped more than 8kg above the bottom weighted horse after apprentice allowances.

4) Eliminate any horse that is not having its 1st, 2nd or 3rd run back from a spell.

### Consideration points

Rule 1: Operate on any race except maidens.

Rule 2: Allocate points as follows:

Each win in last 2 starts: 5 points.
Each 2nd in last 2 starts: 3 points.
Each 3rd in last 2 starts: 2 points.
Each 4th in last 2 starts: 1 point.
Distance and course winner: 3 points.
Distance winner: 2 points.
Course winner: 1 point.
Had a run in the last 21 days: 3 points.
Top 8 jockey riding: 3 points.
Barrier drawn inside 50% of the total starters: 3 points.
Rule 3: The top point scorer is the selection.

### Country winners

This system is designed to be operated on midweek and provincial tracks with relatively few selections but a good strike rate.

Rules:

1. Eliminate any horse that hasn’t started a minimum of four times.

2. Eliminate any horse that has won in its last four appearances.

3. Eliminate any horse showing more than $26 for the win.

4. Eliminate any horse with a win strike rate of less than 30%.

5. Exclude favourites at odds of less than $3 (2/1).

6. Consider only horses that have run in the last 28 days.

7. Eliminate any horse that is showing less than $4 (3/1).

8. Any remaining contender must have a last three starts form reading of: 11 1x1 212 221 122 132 123 213 231 321 or 312.

9. Of the remaining contenders, the selection is the one with the highest win percentage.

### Course specialists

Rules:

1. Identify all runners who have won over today's race's course and distance (indicated by the abbreviation C in the formguide).

2. Check each one in turn and identify any to have won on the track more than once. Course wins need not all have been over the distance of today's race, provided at least one of them was.

3. Bet each qualifier to win, provided there are no other qualifiers in the same race.

Logic:

Many horses raise their performance levels when returning to their favourite track, to the extent that recent form at other venues becomes insignificant. This means they can often be underestimated in the market.

### Course winners

Rules:

1. Consider horses that have won at the course.

2. The pre-post price must be less than 10/1 ($11).

3. There must be only one selection in the race.

Logic:

It is quite common for a horse to show a definite preference for just one track. Therefore, form from one track is by no means a reliable guide when studying a race to be held on another.

Using the above logic, horses that have already proven themselves as winners on a particular track theoretically have an additional advantage when there are no other course-winning rivals with obvious chances in opposition. The perceived value in backing these qualifiers stems from the fact that runners with no winning form on a particular track may be over-estimated in the market.

### Dollar dazzlers

1) Only bet in races where every horse has had at least six starts.

2) Calculate the average prize money for every runner.

3) Working from the horse with the biggest average down:

a) To be a selection, the contender's last race must have been in the last 18 days.

b) To be a selection, the contender's last run must have resulted in a win, 2nd or 3rd.

4) The first contender, working from the horse with the biggest average down, that fits rules 3a and 3b, is the selection.

### Don't blink

1) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish second at its last start.

2) Eliminate any horse ridden by an apprentice unless that apprentice is in the top 8 on the premiership ladder in their state or top 3 of the track premiership for the season.

3) Eliminate any horse not between $5 and $26 in the betting.

4) Eliminate any horse carrying more than 6 kilograms over the minimum (unless a WFA or set weight race).

5) If more than one contender, the selection is the one with the best win strike rate.

### Double placers

1) Use this on any race except maidens.

2) Eliminate any horse that didn't run in the first, second or third at least twice in their last three starts.

3) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish within 3 lengths from the winner twice in those three starts.

4) From the remaining contenders, back the shortest in the market.

### Down not out

1) The only possible contender is the horse that has the best win strike rate in the field.

2) It must be carrying less weight today than at its last start.

3) The distance of today’s race must be within 200 metres of its last start.

4) Its last start must have been within the preceding 14 days.

### The dream racing system

Study each race to be run that day and write down the names of the five favourites with the lowest odds. If there is a tie, include all such runners for further consideration. From this short list, you will be determining the day's single horse selection.

By following this point system, you will take the guesswork out of your evaluation.

Pre-post price - Points given

1/2 - 67
8/15 - 65
4/7 - 63
8/13 - 62
4/6 - 60
8/11 - 58
4/5 - 55
5/6 - 54
10/11 - 52
Evens - 50
11/10 - 48
6/5 - 45
5/4 - 44
11/8 - 42
6/4 - 40
13/8 - 37
7/4 - 36
15/8 - 35
2/1 - 33
9/4 - 31
5/2 - 28
11/4 - 27
3/1 - 25
10/3 - 23
7/2 - 22
4/1 - 20
Last start

Last-start winner (current campaign): 45
Last-start 2nd or 3rd (current campaign): 40
Any other position in its last start (current campaign): 35
First-up: 35
Prizemoney

The prize money of the previous race was worth at least 20% more than the current prize money: 50
The prize money of the previous race was worth at least 20% less than the current prize money: 30
The prize money of the previous race was less than 20% (plus or minus) than the current prize money: 40
Today's race

Non-handicap race: 40
Handicap race: 30
Size of the field

10 or fewer runners: 45
11-15 runners: 40
16 or more runners: 30
Last-start winners

0-1 rivals which won the last time out: 45
2 rivals which won the last time out: 35
3 or more rivals won their last time out: 30
Horse's form

Previously won on the course: 10
Previously won over the distance: 10
Once you have factored in all these considerations, add up the points you have awarded to each of your five contenders. The horse with the greatest total is your best qualifier for the day's bet.

### Each-way the danger

(*Winning Post*, 28 November 2020)

Step 1: Look only on races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look for races where at least one horse is paying $3 or less.

Step 3: Ignore those horses and look for the next horse in the market, as long as it is marked at $5 or more.

Step 4: If there are two or more horses at that price, consider all.

Step 5: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%. Eliminate any who have raced this time in and finished more than three lengths from the winner last start. Eliminate any who are first-up and hasn't won fresh.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one in the best barrier. Back the selection one unit the win, two units the place.

### Each-way value

Rules:

In any race with 5 declared runners, place an each-way bet on the second-named horse in the pre-post betting market.

In cases where a subsequent non-runner is declared, the bet stands as win-only for system purposes (this provision is made on the basis that bets are often placed early in the day).

Staking:

Bet each-way on each selection.

Logic:

A carefully researched 20/1 shot is only equivalent to a 2/1 winner when placed second or third in an 8-runner race, giving very poor value (a 1-point each-way stake would return 6 points at one-quarter odds, making it equal to a 2/1 win).

Contrary to popular belief, the best value for each-way backers is found in races of 5 runners, where the return for a place is one-third odds. Importantly, the two places in a 5-runner event account for 40% of the total (as against 37.5% for the 1-2-3 in an 8-runner race).

Not generally understood is the fact that each-way betting is more effective at lower prices. The missed profit on winning long shots is never compensated by the poor place returns for those that are narrowly beaten — big prices are always better backed as win-only in the long term.

In races of 5 runners, the each-way value is often found with the second horse in the pre-post betting market. It holds a realistic chance of winning, whilst being expected to beat the other three home, thus saving well over 50% of the total outlay when beaten into second place.

### Earners

1) Only consider the horse with the highest career earnings

2) Eliminate it if it hasn't won at least once in its last five starts.

3) Eliminate it if it has been beaten by 4 lengths or more in consecutive runs in its last five starts.

### Eight step quick step

1) Eliminate any horse that has not had at least two starts since a spell.

2) Add up the horse's last two starts.

3) Eliminate any horse whose last two starts total more than 4.

4) Eliminate any horse showing more than $11.

5) If more than one remaining, eliminate any horse that has not won at today's distance (plus or minus 100 metres).

6) If more than one remaining, eliminate any runner being ridden by an apprentice (unless they have won on its last start).

7) If more than one remaining, eliminate any horse that hasn't won at least 21% of its lifetime starts.

8) If more than one remaining, skip the race.

### Favourites in big fields

Rules:

Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners.

If there are two or more qualifying races, there is no bet.

In each qualifying race, bet the pre-post favourite to win.

Logic:

There is an old saying, "the bigger the field, the better the favourite," and, as in all old sayings, there is an element of substance to it. This trial will hopefully prove just how much.

Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs instead of those with small fields that often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.

Races with big fields are much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.

### Favourites forever

The real problem with favourites is that we know about 70% of them get beaten. This plan may assist you in determining which favourites to bet on.

Rules:

1) Only bet on Saturday races between 1000 and 1500 metres with between 10 and 16 runners.

2) Eliminate any favourite carrying less than 53.5kg.

3) Eliminate any favourite that has not started in the last 23 days.

4) Eliminate any favourite that finished worse than 5th at its last start.

5) Eliminate any favourite that finished more than 2 lengths from the winner at its second last start (but must not have won).

### Field beaters

1) Operate only on races where every horse has had at least three starts.

2) Eliminate any horse rising by more than 3kgs from its last handicapped weight (ignore claims).

3) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the previous 21 days.

4) With remaining contenders:

a) add together their last three finishing positions.

b) add the total number of runners in their last three races and divide this by the total finishing positions in A.

5) The horse with the highest total is the selection.

### Field toppers

1) Do not use this on set-weight races, WFA races or 2YO races.

2) Eliminate any horse not TAB numbers 1 through 6.

3) Eliminate any horse that did not finish 5th or better at its last start.

4) Eliminate any horse that did not win or did not finish within 3.5 lengths of the winner at its last start.

5) Any selection must then be carrying within 2.5kg of the weight it carried at its last start (up or down).

### First consideration, aka Metro marvels

1) Use this only on metropolitan meetings that are being run on a Saturday or public holiday.

2) Do not use this system on days where the track is slow or heavy.

3) Eliminate any race with 12 or more starters.

4) Eliminate any horse that is carrying more than 58kg after allowances.

5) Eliminate any horse whose last three starts are 111.

6) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 28 days ago.

7) Eliminate any horse being ridden by an apprentice except where that apprentice rode it to a win at its last start.

8) Eliminate any horse who was unplaced at its last start unless it finished less than 3.5 lengths from the winner.

9) Eliminate any horse whose win strike rate is less than 20%.

10) Eliminate any horse older than 7.

11) Eliminate any horse that has not won at the distance - allow 50 metres short or 100 metres long for races up to 1600 metres and 100 metres short and 250 metres long for distances greater than 1600 metres.

### Follow the leader, aka Handicappers rule

1) Operate only on handicap events with 8 or more runners.

2) In races with 12 or more runners, eliminate every horse except those with the top 6 weights.

3) In races with 10 to 11 runners, eliminate every horse except those with the top 4 weights.

4) In races with 8 to 9 runners, eliminate every horse except those with the top 2 weights.

5) Eliminate any contender that has not finished in the first four at least two of its last four runs.

6) Eliminate any contender that has not started in the previous 21 days.

7) If more than one contender remains, back the one whose last four runs add up to the least.

### For sprinter's eyes only

This plan originated in the UK - the limited research I've seen on it as applicable to Australian racing is not overwhelmingly convincing (about yours for theirs). Still, perhaps you may like to try out a few new rules and refine them a little. If you do and can supply a substantial workout for your new added rules, please let everyone know via the feedback section on this site.

Rules:

1) Consider only races being run at 1200m or less.

2) Eliminate all horses that did not win last start at 1200m or less.

3) Selection is the highest-rated horse still left with the highest weight being carried after any apprentice allowance.

4) If no last-start winners, go with last-start seconds (at 1200m or less) with the same highest weight eliminator.

5) If no last-start winners or seconds, go with last-start thirds (at 1200m or less) with the same highest weight eliminator.

### The forecast favourite

Check all races with 6 to 10 runners.

Note all horses that have won over the distance and run within the last 23 days.

Check the pre-post odds to see if any of these are the favourite, at odds of between evens and 5/1 (inclusive).

### Formula five

This simple system has been designed to incorporate the strongest selection principles without delving into the evil world of short price betting!

Rules:

1. The selection must have won its last start within the last 19 days.

2. Eliminate any horse not being ridden by one of the top 6 jockeys at the track this season.

3. Eliminate any horse that has not won over the distance of today’s race (plus or minus 100 metres if race is less than 1600 metres, or plus or minus 200 metres if the race is longer than 1600 metres).

4. Eliminate any horse less than $5 (4/1).

5. If more than one horse is still left under consideration, back the one with the best barrier draw.

### Four keys plan

1) Do not use this on set weight races, WFA races or 2YO races.

2) Eliminate any horse not TAB numbers 1 through 6.

3) Eliminate any horse that did not finish 5th or better at its last start.

4) Eliminate any horse that did not win or did not finish within 3.5 lengths of the winner at its last start.

5) Any selection must then be carrying within 2.5kg of the weight it carried at its last start.

### Four-rule metro

1) Use this only on metropolitan meetings in Brisbane, Sydney & Melbourne.

2) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the last 21 days.

3) Eliminate any horse that is not the horse with the best average prize money earner and has a strike rate of more than 28%.

4) Eliminate any horse that has a place record of 50% or better.

### Four score system

Aim: Here’s a system that throws up a few good winners at sometimes surprisingly good prices. It is not intended to operate at midweek provincial or country race meetings. However, some people have reported very good results with it at these venues.

Rules:

1) Operate on Saturday metropolitan races.

2) Selection must have a winning strike rate of greater than 30%.

3) Selection must have had four runs or more from its most recent spell.

4) Selection must have run a place at two of its last three starts.

5) Selection must be a four-year-old.

### 1400m specialists

Rules:

1. Concentrate on all races run from 1350m to 1450m inclusive.

2. In each qualifying race, bet the shortest-priced runner in the pre-post betting market to have recorded two or more wins over the distance of today's race.

3. In races where two or more runners are equal shortest-priced qualifiers, there is no bet for that race.

Logic:

Being neither a sprint trip nor a mile, 1400m is the distance over which the most potent specialists are found. In contrast to failed sprinters raising in distance and failed milers dropping in distance, 1400m specialists are made for the job. Pre-post favourites who have never won over the trip before may be vulnerable against these specialists.

### 14plus14, aka Fortnightly profits

1) Consider any race 1400 metres or longer.

2) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the last 14 days.

3) Eliminate any horse that hasn't won over the distance of today's race, give or take 50 metres if 1400 to 1550, 100 metres if 1551 to 1750, 200 metres if 1800 to 2150 or 300 metres if 2200 metres or more.

4) Eliminate any horse that hasn't won or been placed at the track.

5) Eliminate any horse that hasn't had at least three starts since a spell.

### Front on

1) Bet only on Saturday or Sunday metropolitan meetings.

2) The only contenders can be those that won their last start and either led throughout or from the turn.

3) Eliminate any horse that won its last start at a non-metropolitan meeting.

4) A horse must have a win strike rate of more than 30%.

5) Today's race must not be longer than its last start or shorter by more than 200 metres than its last start.

6) Eliminate any horse first-up after a spell.

### Grand final selections (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 25 September 2021)

This system is based on the 2021 AFL Grand Final. Melbourne finished first and the Western Bulldogs finished fifth at the end of the regular season.

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Consider horses that are either first or fifth in the betting in the pre-post betting market. If you have joint favourites and/or joint fifth favourites, include them all.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a win strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any who have had more than three starts in this distance range and are yet to win.

Step 5: Eliminate any who have had more than three starts at this track and are yet to win.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best win strike rate. If you still have more than one qualifier, the selection is the one that has drawn the best barrier.

### Grand final selections (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 2 October 2021)

This system is based on the 2021 NRL Grand Final. Penrith Panthers finished second and South Sydney Rabbitohs finished third at the end of the regular season.

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Consider horses that are either second or third in the betting in the pre-post betting market. If you have joint second favourites and/or joint third favourites, include them all.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a win strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any who have had more than three starts in this distance range and are yet to win.

Step 5: Eliminate any who have had more than three starts at this track and are yet to win.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best win strike rate. If you still have more than one qualifier, the selection is the one that has drawn the best barrier.

### Handicappers down in class

Rules:

1. System concentrates on handicap races only.

2. A qualifying runner must have the clear highest official rating in the race.

3. It must have finished in the first four home on its last run.

4. Its last run must have been in a handicap of a higher class than today's race.

Logic:

Whilst factors like track type, distance, ground etc are all important, class is the most critical consideration. Even if a horse is ideally suited to today's track, distance and ground, it won't win if it is outclassed.

This system aims to locate handicappers who are not only clear highest-rated in a race, but who have also proved themselves to be competitive at a higher level in recent times.

### Horses for distances

Rules:

In any race, bet a horse if it is the only previous winner over today's distance, provided that it is also on the first three lines in the pre-post betting market.

Logic:

Horses are very susceptible to changes in distance. They may not perform at their best with even a slight increase or decrease in the distance they have to run. Suppose there is only one horse that has previously won over today's distance. In that case, it may well hold a big advantage over the others.

More than half of all winners are on the first three lines in the pre-post betting market, so this qualifying factor eliminates no-hopers whose distance win may have been a long time ago, or in a very low class.

### In-form distance winners

Rules:

Bet any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously won over the distance of today's race.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

This system plays on the advantages of in-form horses, but with the additional option of using more than one selection in any one racing day if appropriate.

The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form runners.

### In the big smoke

1) Use only on Melbourne metro tracks, 1000m to 1200m (maximum 16 starters).

2) Consider only those runners who ran 1st or 2nd at a provincial meeting at their last start.

3) Eliminate any horse that did finish second that was not within one length of the winner at their last start.

4) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 21 days ago.

5) If more than one contender, pass the race.

### In top form

Operates on Sydney & Melbourne metro races.

Use only in 3YO handicaps, 3&4YO handicaps, welters, open handicaps and weight for age races. Ignore all other races.

Eliminate any horse that hasn’t won at the distance or been placed on the track.

Eliminate any horse that hasn’t started in the previous 21 days.

In WFA and welter, races any contender must be 5 years old or less.

In open handicaps, the horse must be 7 years old or less.

If today’s race is 1200m or less, its last start must have been 1000-1400m.

If today’s race is 1201-1400m, its last start must have been 1200-1600m.

If today’s race is 1401-1600m, its last start must have been 1400-1800m.

If today’s race is 1601-1700m, its last start must have been 1400-2000m.

If today’s race is 1701-1800m, its last start must have been 1500-2100m.

If today’s race is 1801-1900m, its last start must have been 1600-2200m.

If today’s race is 1901-2000m, its last start must have been 1600-2400m.

If today’s race is 2001-2200m, its last start must have been 1800-2600m.

If today’s race is 2201-2600m, its last start must have been 2200-3200m.

If today’s race is 2601-3200m, its last start must have been 2300-3200m.

If a tie, go for the horse with most recent start.

If a tie, go for the youngest horse.

If a tie, go for the horse with the most wins over the distance.

If still a tie, pass the race.

### Jockey upgrades

Rules:

Operate on the handicap race with the highest winner's prize at each of the day's meetings.

If there are joint richest handicaps at one meeting, consider each of them.

Consider any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last start.

Its last race must have been in a handicap, run within the last 50 days.

It was ridden last time by a jockey who was claiming a weight allowance.

It is to be ridden today by a jockey who isn't claiming a weight allowance.

If there is more than one qualifier in any race, there is no bet for that particular race.

Logic:

Professional riders in handicaps, generally speaking, are worth the extra weight compared to lesser experienced claiming riders.

In addition, claiming riders in the most valuable handicaps have a very poor record.

A qualifying horse was expected to win last time out, when ridden by a lesser experienced rider.

That lack of experience may well have contributed to its defeat.

Today, it is to be ridden by a professional rider, who doesn't need a weight allowance to compensate for any shortcomings in ability or lack of experience.

### Just off the pace is the place

(*Winning Post*, 26 June 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have raced this time in.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Look for horses that were third or fourth at the 400m mark at their latest run.

Step 5: If there are more than three qualifiers, move on to the next race.

Step 6: Of the remaining qualifiers, eliminate any who finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless they started at $5 or less.

Step 7: If you have two qualifiers, take the runner with the better winning strike rate.

Step 8: If that doesn't split them, take the one in the better barrier.

### Last six tango

Rule 1: Operate on any race with 7 to 12 runners.

Rule 2: A horse must have won or run a place in at least three of its last 6 runs.

Rule 3: It must have won at least once in its last three starts.

Rule 4: It must have won within 100 metres of today’s distance.

Rule 5: Eliminate any contender beaten by more than 6 lengths at its last start unless that race's prize money was double or more than  today's race.

Rule 6: If more than one remains, back them all if prices allow.

### Last start winners

1) Operate only on races between 1200 and 3200 metres but not 2YO races or jumps races.

2) Eliminate any horse that did not win its last start.

3) Eliminate any horse that has won its last three starts.

4) Eliminate any horse drawn wider than barrier 14.

5) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 200 metres shorter or over 300 metres longer than today's distance.

6) Eliminate any horse whose weight last start wasn't within three kilograms of today's handicapped weight (ignore claims).

7) Eliminate any horse handicapped at more than 60kg or less than 54kg (ignore claims).

8) Eliminate any horse whose lifetime win percentage is less than 20%.

9) Eliminate any horse that hasn't been at least placed at today's distance and hasn't been at least placed on the track conditions.

10) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 9 days ago and whose second-last start was more than 17 days before that.

### Last to first

1) Bet on any race.

2) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish last or second last at its last start.

3) Eliminate any contender that didn't run a place at each of its two previous starts.

4) Eliminate any contender going down in weight.

### Laying handicap favourites

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on handicap races.

2. In such events, check for horses which are clear favourite in the pre-post betting market.

3. Then, check each of these in turn to see whether it has ever run on the track before.

4. If not, lay the horse as per the staking instructions below.

Staking:

Lay at the shortest price that can be matched, to an agreed-upon liability (the examples give a potential liability of 5 points).

Example 1: If the target lay price is 7/4 ($2.75), lay a bet of 2.86 pts at 2.75.

Calculation: 5/(7/4) = 2.86 pts at: (7/4) + 1 = 2.75.

Example 2: If the target lay price is 4/7 ($1.57), lay a bet of 8.77 pts at 1.57.

Calculation: 5/(4/7) = 8.77 pts at: (4/7) + 1 = 1.57.

Logic:

If a horse has never run on any track before, there are obvious concerns regarding its suitability. Even if it has previous experience, but on a different track to today's, there are still concerns. In some instances, these concerns can be outweighed by the price, but that is less likely in the case of handicap favourites.

Further notes:

1. Some courses in Australia are right-handed, and others are left-handed. There can often be a preference in that regard.

2. Favourites in handicaps are more likely to be opposed by runners already proven on the track than in non-handicaps, hence the use of handicaps for the trial.

### Laying likelies

This may be a system to identify horses that struggle to win, even though they have seemingly good credentials.

Rules:

1. Operate on Saturday metropolitan races in Sydney or Melbourne.

2. Selection must be priced at more than $5 (4/1).

3. Selection must have won or been placed at its last start.

4. Selection must be carrying less than 53 kilograms. (May need to be increased because of increasing minimum weights.)

5. Selection must be trained by this season’s top trainer.

### Laying older handicappers

Rules:

In handicap races containing 4YOs and above, lay the clear pre-post favourite unless it won its last race.

If there are joint pre-post favourites, there is no bet regardless of whether any of them won last time out.

Staking:

Lay at the pre-post price to a liability of one point for every consecutive race the selection has lost.

For example, suppose the pre-post favourite is 5/2 ($3.50) and is on a losing run of 20. In that case, the potential gain is 8 points (20 divided by 2.5), and the potential liability is 20 points.

Logic:

The most unreliable type of race for favourite backers is a handicap for older horses. These runners often struggle to maintain a consistent level of form and are unlikely to be on the upgrade. They are often struggling on handicap marks that are too high for them because of earlier career successes.

The longer the losing sequence a horse is on, the more difficult it tends to be for its trainer to find a winning opportunity, especially if a string of placed efforts means that the handicapper hasn't relinquished his grip. Therefore, potential liabilities are in line with the horse's current losing sequence.

### Lazy longshots

This plan is designed for those looking for long shots with at least a chance of winning. It will not throw up many selections, but it looks like it may have a chance to produce results over the long term.

Rules:

1) Consider only horses that are showing more than $15 in the betting.

2) Eliminate any contender whose last two starts form does not read as either 22, 23, 32, 33 or 11, 12, 13, 14. However, any horse that ran 2nd or 3rd at its last start within the last 7 days is also considered a contender.

3) In the event of more than one contender in a race, and as they are such long shots, back them all.

### Local knowledge

1. Identify the race with the fewest number of runners after morning scratchings.

2. If two or more races have the same lowest number of runners after scratchings, bet in each race.

3. Check the winning stats for each jockey at the track.

4. The selection is the horse ridden by the jockey with the most wins this season at the track.

5. If two jockeys in the race have ridden the same number of winners this season at this track, there is no bet.

6. Late scratchings do not effect the selections.

7. Applies equally to flat and jumps races.

### Long price

1) Bet on any race.

2) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish in the first four placings last start.

3) Eliminate any horse that hasn't run in the last nine days.

4) Eliminate any horse that was beaten by more than 3.25 lengths last start.

5) Eliminate any horse carrying more weight today than last start.

6) Back any contenders that are left each way, provided they are more than $14.

### Long races

1) Use only on races longer than 1605 metres.

2) Eliminate any horse being ridden by an apprentice claiming more than 1.5kg.

3) Eliminate any horse showing more than $20 with 10 minutes to go in the betting.

4) Eliminate any horse that won or finished 2nd at their last start.

5) Selection is now the lowest weighted horse of those remaining (after allowances).

6) If more than one contender, bet on the longest priced one.

### Low class

This interesting system defies the traditional thinking that you should only bet in top-class races ("they attract the more reliable horses"). Following the market in lower class races is easier to do, and the money isn't being hidden by the flood of mug money in the big races.

Rules:

1. Identify the race carrying the lowest prize money for the day.

2. Back the favourite.

3. In the event of more than one race having the same lowest prize money, bet in each of them.

4. Eliminate any selection not being ridden by a jockey in this season’s top eight at that track.

### Lucky late longshots

(*Winning Post*, 12 December 2020)

Step 1: Look only at the last two races on the card.

Step 2: Look for races priced at $20 or less.

Step 3: Ignore any that are first-up and haven't won fresh.

Step 4: If they have raced this time in, eliminate any that are winless both at this track and over the trip.

Step 5: Eliminate any drawn 10 or wider (1-6 in straight races), unless they have jumped from that type of barrier in their past three starts and finished in the placings.

Step 6: If you're left with more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 7: Still equal, take the one in the best barrier (highest for straight races, lowest for others). Back the selection one unit the win, two units the place.

### Magic fours

(*Winning Post*, 24 October 2020)

Step 1: Look only at horses who have raced this time in and finished fourth at their last start.

Step 2: Eliminate any who finished more than four lengths from the winner.

Step 3: Eliminate any paying $5 (4/1) or less.

Step 4: Eliminate any who have started four or more times at the track for no wins.

Step 5: Eliminate any who have started four or more times over the distance for no wins.

Step 6: If there are more than 10 runners in the race, eliminate any who have drawn in one of the outside four barriers.

Step 7: If you need a tie-breaker, take the runner with the best winning strike rate.

Step 8: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Mares mayhem, aka Mares only

1) Use this plan only in mares races.

2) Only contender is the top weight (or equal).

3) It must be favourite.

4) It must be a last-start winner.

5) It must be drawn barriers 1 through 5.

6) It must be priced at $5 or less.

### Matter of percentages

1) Consider only horses with at least eight starts with a win strike rate of at least 25% and a place strike rate of at least 44%.

2) Eliminate any horse that has not won at the distance or within 100 metres shorter or longer than today's distance at any track.

3) Eliminate any horse that has not been placed at today's track.

4) If more than one contender, the selection becomes the one with the best win strike rate.

5) If the horse is to be ridden by a top 3 jockey, double the bet.

### New season, new campaign

(*Winning Post*, 7 August 2021)

Step 1: Look for first-up horses. Their last start on the fields page will be shown as an "s".

Step 2: Eliminate any that haven't won first-up.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one that has won the most races at the track.

Step 5: If you still can't split them, take the one that has won the most races over the distance.

Step 6: If you've still got more than one, take the runner with the best winning strike rate.

Step 7: If they still can't be separated, take the one in the best barrier.

### No gain no pain

1) Bet on any race.

2) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish in the first four places last start.

3) Eliminate any horse that hasn't run in the last nine days.

4) Eliminate any horse that was beaten by more than 3.25 lengths last start.

5) Eliminate any horse carrying more weight today than last start.

6) Back any contenders that are left each way, provided they are more than $14.

### O, what an unexpected run

(*Winning Post*, 14 August 2021)

Step 1: Look only on races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have raced this time in and have a 7, 8, 9, or 0 in the form figures for their past two starts.

Step 3: Eliminate any horse that started at more than $6 in the race in question.

Step 4: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one that has won the most races at this track.

Step 6: If you still can't split them, take the one that has won the most races at this trip.

Step 7: If you've still got more than one, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 8: If they still can't be separated, take the one in the best barrier.

### Odds on only, aka Odds on get on

This is a system designed for those who like to bet on odds on favourites and have no fear. It flies in the face of "conventional" thinking where punters are generally advised "odds on - look on". You have been warned!

Rules:

1) Eliminate any race with 10 or more starters.

2) Eliminate any race where the odds-on favourite is not a last-start winner.

3) The odds on favourite must be the only last start winner in the field.

4) Eliminate any odds on favourite that has not won at the distance or within 100 metres of the distance of today's race.

5) Do not bet if the track is not rated as Good or better.

Staking:

You only ever operate with a bank of 100 units with a maximum of three bets per bank.

Bet 1: 10 units on the first selection.

If it wins, great, take the profit and a new bank begins. If it loses, advance to bet 2.

Bet 2: 40 units on the second selection.

It doesn't matter if this horse wins or loses, you must advance to bet 3.

Bet 3: 50 units on the third selection.

This concludes the series and a new bank starts again.

### Off-peak specials

(*Winning Post*, 19 December 2020)

Step 1: Work only on tracks rated good.

Step 2: Ignore any race in which there are first-starters.

Step 3: Consider only horses that are first-up, second-up, or third-up.

Step 4: Eliminate unless the horse's number appears in Winning Post's Whiteway top six.

Step 5: If the horse is first-up, eliminate it unless it has won first-up in the past.

Step 6: If the horse is second-up, eliminate it unless it has won second-up in the past.

Step 7: Eliminate any horse that has not won at least 25% of its starts on good tracks.

Step 8: If you're left with more than one selection, take the one with the highest Whiteway rating.

### Ol' 55

Operates on all metro races except maidens and jumps and races with more than 14 starters.

Consider only horses that ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd at their last two starts.

Eliminate any runner not dropping in weight from its last start (before allowances).

Eliminate any horse that’s not drawn barriers 1 through 7.

Eliminate any horse without a place strike rate of better than 54%.

To stay a contender, it must be ridden by a top 10 jockey.

Eliminate any horse that hasn’t been at least placed at today’s distance.

### Older sprinters hitting form

Rules:

Operate on races of 1200 metres or less.

Consider any horse aged four years old or older.

It must have finished in the first three in its last start.

Its latest race must have been within the last 30 days (inclusive).

It must have finished out of the first three on at least three consecutive occasions immediately before its most recent run.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:

Of all the different types of racehorse, perhaps the most prone to alternating sequences of good and poor performance are older sprinters. They can be out of form for a considerable time before suddenly producing one run, which sparks a resurgence. This improved level of performance may continue for a short while before the sprinter begins another decline. The secret is to catch these older sprinters just as they hit one of their purple patches.

### Older two-year-olds

Rules:

In any race for 2YOs where the number of runners with previous experience is less than the number of places available, bet the oldest unraced horse each-way.

Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Staking:

Bet each-way on each selection.

Logic:

Unraced 2YOs can be a bit of a mystery, but the fact is that some are much more developed than others. Though they all share the same official birthday (1 August), some of them can actually be quite a bit older than others. This can prove a big advantage when unraced 2YOs compete against each other.

The each-way element of the bet respects the fact that the runners to have seen a racecourse before, regardless of actual age, have a proven advantage in terms of experience (see System 22).

### On pace is the place

(*Winning Post*, 19 June 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have raced this time in.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Look for horses that were first or second at the 400m mark at their latest run.

Step 5: If there are more than three qualifiers, move on to the next race.

Step 6: Of the remaining qualifiers, eliminate any who finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless they started at $5 or less.

Step 7: If you have two qualifiers, take the runner with the better winning strike rate.

Step 8: If that doesn't split them, take the one in the better barrier.

### One in or none in

Aim: A selection system for provincial races.

Rules:

1) Consider only the horse with the best winning strike rate.

2) If more than one tied, don’t bet on the race.

3) Eliminate if it was beaten by more than two lengths at its last appearance.

4) Eliminate if its last start was more than 56 days ago.

### One to watch (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 3 April 2021)

Step 1: Look for a horse who has been tipped to finish in the top four by one tipster only.

Step 2: On the website, we will list all qualifiers. However, if you want to follow one horse in a race, eliminate any with less than 20% winning strike rate.

Step 3: If you still have more than one, eliminate any who are first-up and are yet to win fresh.

Step 4: If you still have multiple picks, eliminate any who have raced this time in, finished more than three lengths from the winner and started at odds of over $10.

Step 5: If you still need to narrow it down, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 6: Still? Take the one in the best barrier.

### One to watch (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 10 April 2021)

Step 1: Look for a horse who has been tipped to finish in the top four by one tipster only.

Step 2: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 3: If you have more than one selection, eliminate any who are first-up and are yet to win fresh.

Step 4: If you still have multiple picks, eliminate any who have raced this time in, finished more than three lengths from the winner and started at odds of over $10.

Step 5: If you still need to narrow it down, take the two with the best winning strike rate.

Step 6: Still? Take the two in the best barriers. Back them both each way.

### Options, aka Topweight

1. Only consider 1200 to 1400 metre city track races either class 4 or 0-72 and better.

2. Only consider the top weight - if dual or more top weights, discard the race.

3. It must be first or second favourite, and have run first second or third at its last start.

### Out of the doldrums

Rules:

1. Consider only last-start winners.

2. The race came within the last 30 days.

3. It finished out of the first three in each of its three previous like-for-like races (that is, in its last three flat races when the qualifying race is on the flat, or in its last three jumps races when the qualifying race is jumps).

4. It has run at least four times in total under the code of today's race (flat or jumps).

5. There are no other qualifiers in the race.

Logic:

There are many reasons for a horse suddenly hitting form following a period in the doldrums (new yard, low handicap mark, new trip, different tactics, headgear, etc). When this happens, the confidence it restores in the horse is often enough to spark a resurgence, even though it may only be a brief one. If the horse can run again shortly afterwards, it may retain its new-found form and repeat the recent win.

### Over and over

1. Ignore 2YO races.

2. Ignore jumps races.

3. Ignore any race less than 1200 metres.

4. Only contender can be the favourite.

5. Eliminate any horse that is first-up after a spell.

6. Eliminate any horse that didn’t run 1st, 2nd or 3rd at its last start.

7. Eliminate any horse going back in distance from its previous run.

8. Eliminate any horse going up in distance more than 200 metres from its previous run.

### Percentages count

1) Consider only races with over seven runners between 1100 and 1800 metres on a good or fast racing surface.

2) Eliminate any horse that is not ranked in the first three according to their win-strike rate.

3) From the top 3, ascertain the horse with the best strike rate for a *place*.

4) This horse is then the selection.

5) If favourite, consider doubling your normal bet.

### Place your bets

A good friend swears he makes money with this regularly by place betting only.

His system is reproduced here as outlined to us in an e-mail.

Rules:

1. Establish average prize money figures for every horse in the race (lifetime earnings divided by the number of starts).

2. Eliminate any horse not in the first half of the betting. In other words, if there are 12 starters in a race, the horse must be in the top 6 of betting. In an 18 horse field, you are only looking at the top 9.

3. Selection is the horse with the highest average prize money figure in the top half of the betting.

### Place your bets

(*Winning Post*, 17 October 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses marked in the range of $10 to $20 in the pre-post market.

Step 3: Eliminate any that have raced this time in and finished worse than fifth at their latest run.

Step 4: Eliminate any runner that has a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 5: If the horse is first-up, eliminate it if it hasn't won fresh.

Step 6: If you need a tie-breaker, take the runner with the best winning strike rate.

Step 7: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier. Back the selection for the place.

### Plan A, aka Planner

1) Eliminate any horse that did not finish 1st or 2nd at their last start.

2) Eliminate any contender who did not race in a similar or better race class last start.

3) Eliminate any contender that has not started for 21 days (inclusive).

4) Eliminate any contender going down in distance more than 200 metres or up in distance more than 400 metres.

5) From the remaining contenders (if more than one), choose the won with the most recent race start.

6) If still a tie between two, back both. If more than two, skip the race.

### Points allocation

Assess each runner on the following basis and allocate points accordingly. The horse with the most points is selection.

* Good jockey: 8 points.
* Good trainer: 3 points.
* Distance winner (within 100 metres): 8 points.
* Track winner: 4 points.
* Handles going: 6 points.
* Barrier 1 to 5: 5 points.
* Barrier 6 to 10: 2 points.
* Same class as last start: 5 points.
* Down in class from last start: 9 points.
* Winner last start: 6 points.
* Beaten last start less than 1 length: 3 points.
* Handicapped at 55kg or more: 2 points.
* 14 days since last start: 8 points.
* Last start 15 to 21 days ago: 5 points
* Last start 22 to 28 days ago: 2 points.

### Points allocation 2

Assess each runner on the following basis and allocate points accordingly. The horse with the most points is selection.

* 40%+ strike rate at track: 20 points.
* 20%+ strike rate at distance: 20 points.
* Each win last 4 starts: 5 points.
* Each 2nd last 4 starts: 3 points.
* Each 3rd last 4 starts: 2 points.
* Each 4th last 4 starts: 1 point.
* Last 3 form figures total 4 or less: 2 points.
* Top 8 jockey (5 if provincial): 5 points.
* Last start 15 to 21 days ago: 3 points.
* Last start 14 days ago or less: 5 points.

Top point scorer the selection. If more than one, take the one better than $4.
If still equal, back both of them if two. If three or more, ignore the race

### Polling by distance

1. Eliminate all maiden handicap races.

2. Track must be “fast”, “good”, or “dead” at worst.

3. Selection must be the only horse in the race that has won at today’s distance.

4. Selection must be tipped in the morning paper to run 1, 2 or 3.

5. If no newspaper poll is available (country meeting), use selections from the course caller.

### Popular but still value

(*Winning Post*, 24 April 2021)

Step 1: Look at the Most Favoured column in the tipsters' poll for Melbourne and Sydney meetings, showing the top four horses across the eight sets of tips using a 5-3-2-1 points system.

Step 2: A horse qualifies as a selection if it fits the following criteria:

30 or more points and marked as $5 or better in the pre-post market.
20 to 29 points and marked as $6 or better.
10 to 19 points and marked as $8 or better.
Less than 10 points and marked as $10 or better.
Step 3: If you need a tie-breaker, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 4: Still? Take the horse in the best barrier.

### Potentially underestimated pre-post favourites

Rules:

1. Bet any horse that is clear favourite in the pre-post betting market provided it failed to finish in the first four on its last run.

2. Pre-post favourites making their racecourse debut will not qualify.

Logic:

A horse's most recent run, be it good or bad, is often emphasised to a greater degree than is wise. A recent run under unsuitable conditions or another valid excuse for defeat can lead to a horse generating less support than it deserves on its next outing.

Also, finishing positions outside the first four can generally be viewed as poor when they may have been solid or promising runs, and perhaps in better company than today's.

### Power winners

1) Only horses to be considered are last-start winners.

2) Eliminate any last start winner that did not win by better than 2 lengths.

3) If more than one horse remains, back the one at the shortest odds.

### Price chances

1) Bet only in races Class 6 or better.

2) Eliminate every horse that hasn't started in the previous 21 days.

3) Eliminate any horse that has not had at least 5 starts.

4) Eliminate any female horse running against male horses.

5) Eliminate any horse aged 8 or older.

6) Total the starting prices for the last three runs of remaining contenders and eliminate any whose total is greater than 13.

7) If more than one contender remains, the selection is the one with the most wins in the last five starts.

### Prime four

Here’s a system that throws up a few good winners at sometimes surprisingly good prices. It is not intended to operate at midweek provincial or country race meetings. However, some people have reported very good results with it at these venues.

Rules:

1. Operate on Saturday metropolitan races.

2. Selection must have a winning strike rate of greater than 30%.

3. Selection must have had four runs or more from its most recent spell.

4. Selection must have run a place at two of its last three starts.

5. Selection must be a four year old.

### Prize winner, aka Prize winning

This was a prize-winning system from a racing magazine back in the 1990's - does it work now? No testing done, so try it out on paper first. Supposedly it returned a profit on level stakes of over 160%. Here are the rules.

Rules:

1) Eliminate any horse whose last three start form line is not s21, s31, s41, 141, 151 or 161.

2) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the last 28 days unless it has a win strike rate of more than 50%.

3) Eliminate any horse that does not have a lifetime win strike rate of more than 20%.

4) Eliminate any horse not quoted between 3/1 ($4) and 50/1 ($51) in the pre-post market.

### Profit path, aka Winner in three

1) Only horses to be considered are those that won either their 2nd last start or third last start but not their last start.

2) Eliminate any contender that did not finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th at the other two of their last three starts. That is, their form must read either: 122, 123, 124, 132, 133, 134, 142, 143, 144, 212, 213, 214, 312, 313, 314, 412, 413, or 414.

3) The minimum gap between any of the three last starts must not exceed 49 days.

4) Eliminate any horse that has not started in the last 29 days.

5) Eliminate any horse whose win strike rate is less than 14%.

6) If two contenders, remain back the horse at the best price.

7) If both contenders are better than $6 back both.

8) If three or more contenders, back the one at the best price.

### Profitable top weights, aka Top weights only

The handicapper is always right, right? Well, it does seem that way sometimes with a high percentage of top weights winning. But which top weights are real chances, and which ones are just top weights because they finished last in the "race to the bottom"?

Here are a few thoughts on top weights in different races that you may like to consider and try out.

Mares races top weight rules

1) Must be a winner at the track and have run 2nd or 3rd at its last start.
2) Last run must have been within the last 15 days.
Open handicap top weight rules

1) Must be a winner at the track and distance have at least run a place at its last start.
2) Last start must have been within the last 22 days.
3) If the race is less than 1401 metres, it must be drawn between barriers 1 to 5.
All other handicap races

1) Must be a winner at the track and have raced within the last 22 days.
2) If the race is less than 1401 metres , it must be drawn between barriers 1 to 5.
3) Must have run a place or won in two of its last three starts.
### Progressive favourites

1. Selection can only be the favourite.

2. Eliminate if it has not won at today’s track.

3. Eliminate if it has won in its last three starts.

4. Eliminate if it has not started within the last 21 days.

5. Eliminate if it has not won at today’s distance.

6. Eliminate if it has not had at least five starts in its career.

7. Eliminate if its win strike rate is less than 20%.

8. Eliminate if it hasn’t won or run a place at three or more of its past 5 starts.

### Profitable postillions

(*Winning Post*, 24 July 2021)

Step 1: Look at the jockeys' premiership table and note the jockeys with a SP% of 90 or better.

Step 2: Look at the horse ridden of those top hoops.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a win strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Of the remaining qualifiers, eliminate any who are first-up and haven't won fresh. Of those that have raced this time in, eliminate any who have finished more than three lengths from the winner last start.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best win strike rate. If that doesn't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

Note: SP% (starting price percentage) records the percentage return if you had backed every one of that jockey's or trainer's runners at starting price (SP). A figure of 100 means you break even, more than 100 a profit, less than 100 a loss.

### Provincial B

1. Consider only the horse with the best winning strike rate.

2. If more than one tied, don’t bet on the race.

3. Eliminate if it was beaten by more than two lengths at its last appearance.

4. Eliminate if its last start was more than 56 days ago.

### Provincial chances, aka Provincial plan

This system was designed for use at the many provincial meetings.

Rules:

1) Do not bet on Maiden events.

2) Bet only in races from 1100 metres to 2400 metres.

3) Eliminate any horse first-up from a spell.

4) Eliminate any horse that hasn't got a win strike rate of at least 11% and a place strike rate of at least 39.5%.

5) Eliminate any horse that increases its distance from the last start by more than 200 metres or decreases by more than 100 metres.

6) Eliminate any horse that hasn't run in the last 17 days.

7) Eliminate any horse that did not finish with 3 lengths of the winner at its last start if in a provincial meeting or 5.5 lengths if a metropolitan last start.

### Provincial stars

1. Consider only last-start winners.

2. Eliminate any horse not starting from barriers 1 to 5.

3. Eliminate any horse that hasn’t raced in the previous 14 days.

4. Eliminate any horse not carrying 55kg to 59.5kg.

### Quinella trifecta selector

1) The only horses for consideration are the six top average prize money earners (total prize money divided by number of starts).

2) Eliminate any of these whose win strike rate is less than 20%.

3) Narrow down the remaining contenders by looking only at the three with the most wins.

4) Still a tie between contenders for the third position, go with the one with the most recent start.

5) If you still can't get the final contenders down to three, skip the race.

### Ratings request (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 31 October 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at those horses with a Whiteway rating of 70 or more.

Step 3: If the top pick is four points clear of the second horse, it is the selection.

Step 4: If there is less than four points between the top raters, take the one that has won the most races in this distance range.

Step 5: If still equal, take the one that has won the most races at the track.

Step 6: If you still need a tie-breaker, take the runner with the best winning strike rate.

Step 7: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Ratings request (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 7 November 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at the horse with the highest Whiteway rating.

Step 3: If there are equal top raters, pass the race.

Step 4: If the top rater is four points clear of the second pick, it is the selection.

Step 5: If it is 1-4 points clear and has had three or more starts in this distance range without winning, pass the race. Otherwise, move on to step 6.

Step 6: If it has had three or more starts at the track without winning, pass the race. Otherwise, move on to step 7.

Step 7: If it has an overall winning strike rate of 20% or more, it is the selection.

### Ratings request (version 3)

(*Winning Post*, 14 November 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at the horse with the highest Whiteway rating.

Step 3: The top rater must be at least four points clear.

Step 4: Eliminate any top-rater who has raced at this track and hasn't won.

Step 5: Eliminate any top-rater who has raced over this distance and hasn't won.

### Real improvers

This system should turn up a good percentage of improving winners at short prices. However, the test results indicate the winners are in sufficient numbers to turn a small profit over a fair length of time.

Rules:

1. Eliminate any mare from consideration.

2. Selection must have the highest prize money winnings.

3. Selection must be favourite.

4. Selection’s starting price at last start must have been at least ten times more than its price today.

### Really good, aka Rock solid

1) Use this only on 1000 to 1400 metre races with more than 10 runners on any metropolitan track.

2) Consider only runners that won at their second last start but did not win or run a place at their last start.

3) Eliminate any contender that has not had at least two runs since a spell.

4) Eliminate any contender that has not run in the previous 17 days.

5) Eliminate any contender who does not have a win strike rate of better than 10%.

6) If there are still two contenders, bet on the one with the best win strike rate.

7) If there are more than two contenders, skip the race.

### Recent winners

Rules:

On any day, select the horse which has the least number of days since its last win.

If there is more than one qualifier in the same race, the race will be ignored.

Logic:

Horses which are in top form are often likely to follow up a recent win. They are sometimes entered again quickly to avoid big penalties from the handicapper. They are often horses that thrive on quick reappearances, and once they hit form are difficult to stop whilst in the same mood.

### Recovery mission

Rules:

Bet any horse to win that was a beaten favourite on its latest run (within the last 50 days), provided that it is being ridden by the top jockey at today's track.

The top jockey for this purpose is defined as the one (of those riding today) with the most course winners over the last 12 months. Should there be two jockeys with the same total, there is no bet for that meeting.

Logic:

Having been expected to win on its last outing but failing to do so, a horse is now being partnered by the leading jockey at today's track in an attempt to recover previous losses.

### Roughie round up

This system selects long-priced winners at city tracks and is really for the gambler with a strong heart and deep pockets.

Good luck if you’re trying this!

Rules:

1. Any selection must be showing better than $11 (10/1) in today’s race.

2. It must have run worse than 5th in its last start.

3. It must have won at its second-last start.

4. It must have been less than $7 (6/1) at its most recent start.

### Second-up stars

(*Winning Post*, 2 January 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look for horses that are having their second run this time in.

Step 3: Eliminate if the horse hasn't won second-up.

Step 4: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one who has the most wins when second-up.

Step 5: If still equal, add the wins and placings and take the one with the highest tally.

Step 6: If still equal, take the one with the highest winning strike rate.

Step 7: If you're left with more than one selection, take the horse with the highest Whiteway rating.

Step 8: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Sectional selections (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 28 August 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have run this time in.

Step 3: Eliminate any horse that has a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Look at the "last 600m" time for their latest run.

Step 5: Look at the position the horse was the 400m, then subtract that number from the figure.

Step 6: If the horse was beaten last start, add the margin the horse finished from the winner to that figure (0.5 if the margin was a half-length or less).

Step 7: If the horse won its last start, subtract the winning margin (0.5 if the margin was a half-length or less).

Step 8: The horse with the lowest adjusted figure is the selection. If you have equal lowest figures, take the one with the highest winning strike rate, and if still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Sectional selections (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 4 September 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have run this time in.

Step 3: Eliminate any horse that has a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Look at the "last 600m" time for their latest run.

Step 5: Look at the position the horse was the 400m, then subtract that number from the figure. The maximum number to take away is six. So if the horse was seventh or worse, then subtract six.

Step 6: If the horse was beaten last start, add the margin the horse finished from the winner to that figure (0.5 if the margin was a half-length or less).

Step 7: If the horse won its last start, subtract the winning margin (0.5 if the margin was a half-length or less).

Step 8: The horse with the lowest adjusted figure is the selection. If you have equal lowest figures, take the one with the highest winning strike rate. If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Selecting a value bet

(*Winning Post*, 1 January 2022)

Step 1: Look only at races where there is an eight-tipster grid.

Step 2: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 3: Look at the Most Favoured column at the far right hand side of the tipsters grid.

Step 4: Consider any horse that has 30 or more points and is marked at $4 or more in the pre-post betting market.

Step 5: Consider any horse that has 20 to 29 points and is marked at $5 or more in the pre-post betting market.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the horse with the highest WhiteWay rating.

Step 7: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

Note: In the Winning Post, the "most favoured" gives 5 points for top tip, 3 for second, 2 for third, and 1 for fourth.

### Selection box underdogs

Rules:

1. Check the tipsters' selection for each race of the day.

2. In races where just two horses are selected as the top pick, bet the one with the fewest votes.

3. There is no bet for races where two horses are selected with equal votes.

Logic:

The tipsters' poll seems to be a popular tool punters use when making their own choices. What punters don't always realise is that the collective opinion of these tipsters can be greatly exaggerated.

For example, let's say there is a race where two contenders stand out. There is very little between them, but a particular piece of form seems to give one of them a slight edge. Being experienced form readers, the newspaper tipsters will all pick up on this one factor and give a narrow verdict to the same horse. We then see a 12-1 verdict between the two runners in question, which appears to be a very confident majority vote. In actual fact, all the tipsters have realised very little between the two runners in question, but one small factor has swayed them all the same way. Punters, unsurprisingly, interpret a very confident majority verdict, and the market subsequently reflects their belief. This situation is bound to lead to disproportionate prices, sometimes massively so. Nine times out of ten in these situations, the value has to lie with the bigger priced runner.

### Simple as

1) Use this on any race better than Class 1 races.

2) Eliminate any horse whose form figures don’t end in 12, but not where the last two runs have been interspersed with a spell.

3) From the remaining contenders, back the shortest in the market and, if less than $4.90, double your normal bet.

### Simple rating system

Operate on any races except the following:

* Races with more than 12 runners.
* Jumps races.
* Maiden races.
* 2YO races.
* Races where any runner has had less than three starts.

Of the races that are eligible, take each race in turn and award points for the last three running of each horse as follows:

* Last start: 9 points for a win; 6 points for a second; 3 points for a third.
* Second-last start: 6 points for a win; 4 points for a second; 2 points for a third.
* Third-last start: 3 points for a win; 2 points for a second; 1 point for a third.

The horse with the highest total is the selection.

### Simple ratings for punters

Base rating

Add the total of the last 3 starts and deduct from 30
Add 7 points for a win in the last 3 starts
Add 3 points for a place in the last 3 starts
Add 3 points for a last-start win
Add 2 Points for a last start placing
Class rating

Same class as last run: no change
Up in class on last run: deduct 8 points
Down in class on last run: add 8 Points
Jockey rating

Apprentice rider listed (top 15 in state): add 5 points
Any other apprentice rider: no change
Senior rider superior strike (15% or higher): add 10 points
Any other senior rider: add 5 points
Wet track rating

Proven wet track ability: add 5 points
Track rating

Winning form on this track: add 5 points
Distance rating

Winning form at this distance: add 10 points
Weight rating

Allow 10 points for horses on minimum weight
Deduct 1 point for each kilogram more
Pre-post market

Favourite: allow 10 points (including equals)
2nd/3rd favourite: allow 5 points (including equals)
4th favourite: allow 4 points (including equals)
5th/6th favourite: allow 3 points (including equals), then deduct 1 point for each line down from here
Barrier rating

Barrier 1-5: 10 points
Barrier 6-10: 8 points
Barrier 11-15: 5 points
Outside this: 0 points
Recency

Last start 14 days or less: 10 points
Last start 15-21 days: 7 points
Last start 22-28 days: 5 points
First-up: -10 points
Second-up: -15 points
### Six (or five) of the best

(*Winning Post*, 11 September 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses that have run this time in and have a winning strike rate of at least 20%.

Step 3: Look for horses that were fifth or sixth at the 400m last start.

Step 4: Eliminate any who finished worse than sixth.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, eliminate any who finished more than three lengths from the winner.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, eliminate any that have raced at this venue and haven't won.

Step 7: If you have more than one qualifier, eliminate any that have raced in this distance range and haven't won.

Step 8: If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Six rule special

This system should return a good percentage of winners, but prices won’t be over the top. The first rule eliminates the possibility of betting on those ridiculous odds-on favourites.

Rules:

1. Selection must be priced no shorter than $3 (2/1).

2. Eliminate any race with more than 7 runners.

3. Selection must be favourite, and the race must be for mixed sexes.

4. Eliminate any horse that has not started in the last 14 days.

5. Eliminate any horse that is not a colt or gelding.

6. Eliminate any horse older than 6.

### Solid metro

1) Bet only on weekend metro meetings on races longer than 1300 metres.

2) The only contenders to consider are those with the second or third best average prize money figure (i.e. total prize money earned divided by the number of starts). Note: the top average prize money earner is eliminated (generally tend to be over-bet).

3) Eliminate either of the contenders that did not win or run a place at their last two starts.

4) Eliminate any horse rising in handicapped weight (ignore allowances).

5) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started in the last 21 days at a metropolitan track.

### Stamina for stiff tracks

Rules:

1. Concentrate only on handicap races with more than 10 runners.

2. Bet any horse that has previously won a race at a distance of at least 200 metres further than today's contest, provided it is priced at less than 10/1 ($11) in the pre-post betting market.

3. There will be no bet for that race if there is more than one qualifier for any race.

Notes:

For consistency, advertised race distances in metres will be used to determine whether a horse has previously won over 200 metres (or more) further than today's race.

The race a horse won previously (over further) may have been any type of race on any track.

Logic:

Stiff tracks demand stamina, especially when a race is run at a solid pace, which is more likely with bigger fields. A horse that has already won over a longer trip will have no problem with stamina. This advantage can prove crucial in the latter stages of a solidly-run race on a stiff track, when its rivals are running out of steam. The fact that its pre-post price is less than 10/1 for a well-contested handicap means it is deemed to hold a solid enough chance to begin with.

### Stamina specialists

Rules:

Look for the race to be run over the longest distance of the day. If more than one are joint-longest, consider all qualifying races together.

Using pre-post prices, bet the shortest-priced horse that is a previous distance winner.

If more than one qualifier, there is no bet.

If there are no previous distance winners in the longest or joint-longest races, there is no bet.

Logic:

With extra emphasis on stamina, the ability of a horse to get the trip is more important than at shorter distances.

Previous distance scorers have already proven their stamina, and their advantage is magnified at longer trips. They are often able to outstay classier opponents who are going up in distance.

### Starting from scratch (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 5 June 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races that have at least three scratchings.

Step 2: Look at horses that initially had a barrier of 10 or wider.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any horses that has run this time in and finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless it started at less than $4. If it is first-up, eliminate if it hasn't won fresh.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Starting from scratch (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 12 June 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races that have at least four scratchings.

Step 2: Look at horses that initially had a barrier of 12 or wider.

Step 3: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any horses that has run this time in and finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless it started at less than $6. If it is first-up, eliminate if it hasn't won fresh.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Super favourites

* Operates on any Saturday metropolitan race (except maidens / class 1).
* Consider only the favourite.
* Must be between $2.50 and $4.
* Number of runners must be between 8 and 13.
* Race must be no more than 1600 metres.
* Must have won last start or been beaten less than 2 lengths.
* Must have had at least 8 starts and have a win strike rate of 25% or more.
* Must have been placed at today’s track and won at today’s distance (plus or minus 200 metres).
* Last start must have been at a metro track.
* Must have raced in the last 14 days.
* Must not have had more than 6 starts in its current preparation.
* Must be ridden by a top ten jockey.

### Sydney slickers

* Operate only on metropolitan meetings in Sydney on Wednesdays and Saturdays.
* Eliminate any horse over the age of 6.
* Eliminate any horse who finished worse than 6th at its last start.
* Eliminate any horse who didn't run a place 2 starts ago.
* Eliminate any horse who finished worse than 8th 3 starts ago.
* Eliminate any horse who started at more than $10 at either of its last 2 starts.
* Eliminate any horse who has more weight today than at its last start.
* Eliminate any horse who didn't start on a Metropolitan track last start.
* Eliminate any horse who didn't start on a Saturday at its last start.
* Eliminate any horse not in the top 9 average money winners per race.

### Table is set for winners (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 5 September 2020)

Step 1: Look only at horses who have raced this time in and finished in the first four last outing.

Step 2: Look at the horse's win strike rate. If it's in the range of 20-24 they get 1 point, 25-29 = 2, 30-34 = 3, 35-39 = 4, 40+ = 5.

Step 3: Add to that figure the number of races the horse has won over the distance.

Step 4: Then add the number of races the horse has won at the track.

Step 5: Compare today's weight to the weight carried last time. If today's weight is lower, add the difference. If today's weight is higher, subtract the difference. Same weight, no change.

Step 6: Back the horse with the most points (minimum 4). If no horse has 4 points or higher, pass the race. If equal (with 4+), take the one with the best barrier.

### Table is set for winners (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 19 September 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses who have raced this time in and finished in the first four last outing.

Step 3: Look at the horse's win strike rate. If it's in the range of 20-24 they get 1 point, 25-29 = 2, 30-34 = 3, 35-39 = 4, 40+ = 5.

Step 4: Add to that figure the number of races the horse has won over the distance.

Step 5: Then add the number of races the horse has won at the track.

Step 6: Compare today's weight to the weight carried last time. If today's weight is lower, add the difference. If today's weight is higher, subtract the difference. Same weight, no change.

Step 7: Back the horse with the most points (minimum 4). If no horse has 4 points or higher, pass the race. If equal (with 4+), take the one with the best barrier.

### Take three

1) Do not bet on WFA, maiden or 2YO races.

2) The only contenders are those having their third run back from a spell.

3) Eliminate any horse that won first-up after a spell.

4) It must be first or second favourite.

5) It must have run first or second at its last start.

6) If more than one contender, skip the race.

### Ten commandments

1) Do not operate on Maiden, Class 1, jumping or 2YO races.

2) In races up to 1300 metres, eliminate any runner whose last start was not 10 to 24 days ago.

3) In races longer than 1300 metres, eliminate any runner whose last start was not 4 to 17 days ago.

4) Eliminate any contender rising in weight by more than 3 kilograms.

5) Eliminate any contender who did not win or finish within 2.75 lengths of the winner at least one of its last two starts.

6) Eliminate any runner coming back in race distance more than 250 metres or going up in distance more than 400 metres.

7) Eliminate any contender who has not had at least two runs from a spell.

8) Eliminate any horse racing two classes or more above its eligibility (e.g. a Class 2 eligible horse racing in a Class 5).

9) Eliminate any horse whose win strike rate is less than 15% and place rate is less than 30%.

10) Eliminate any horse ridden by an apprentice claiming more than 2 kilograms unless they have won on the horse before.

### Third run back

1) Do not bet on WFA, Maiden or 2YO races.

2) The only contenders are those having their third run back from a spell.

3) Eliminate any horse that won first-up after a spell.

4) It must be first or second favourite.

5) It must have run first or second at its last start.

6) If more than one contender, skip the race.

### Three fourths

1. Eliminate all Maiden races.

2. Operate only on mid-week and country races.

3. The horse must have finished 4th at its last start.

4. The horse must have won at least one race in its last six starts.

5. Eliminate any horse that hasn’t won a race in the last 18 months.

6. Eliminate any horse carrying more than 6kg over the minimum weight.

7. If there are two qualifiers in the one race, back both.

8. If more than two qualifiers in a race, then no bet.

9. Applicable to either flat or jumps races.

### Three times three

1) Eliminate any horse that is not a three year old but do include two year olds in the second half of the racing season.

2) Eliminate any race less than 1200 metres or longer than 1800 metres and any race with less than six runners or more than 15 runners.

3) Eliminate any horse paying less than $3 or more than $16.

4) Eliminate any horse whose win strike rate is less than 27%.

5) Eliminate any horse who did not win in the last 21 days.

6) Eliminate any horse that is second up from a spell.

### 3YO handicaps, aka Classy 3YO handicappers

Rules:

1) Bet only on 3YO handicap races.

2) Working from the top-weighted horse down, select the first one you come to who ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd at its last start.

3) There is no bet if there’s no qualifying selection by the time you are half-way down the field.

Logic:

Three-year-olds at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to older topweights who may be declining, but are still at the top based on what they did a long time ago). In most cases, the effect of weight is grossly overstated, so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for confirmation of current form.

### Three year olds only

1) Eliminate any horse that is not a three year old but do include two year olds in the second half of the racing season.

2) Eliminate any race less than 1200 metres or longer than 1800 metres and any race with less than six runners or more than 15 runners.

3) Eliminate any horse paying less than $3 or more than $16.

4) Eliminate any horse whose win strike rate is less than 27%.

5) Eliminate any horse who did not win in the last 21 days.

6) Eliminate any horse that is second up from a spell.

### Tight as

This is a system designed to eliminate a lot of those "interest" (losing) bets that you tend to have from week to week by supposedly making the rules so stringent that you only end up with the "creme de la creme". Most people would need to be using it seven days a week to get enough bets in a week to make it all seem worthwhile - such is the nature of the "punting beast".

Rules:

1) Operate on races 1100 to 1800 metres, no weight for age, no straight track races, no fewer than 8 runners.

2) Eliminate any horse that did not finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd at its last start or is not first up over 1100 or 1200.

3) Eliminate any horse whose combined win and place career percentages don't total at least 80%.

4) Eliminate any horse not in the first five of the betting with 15 minutes to start time.

5) Eliminate any horse going up 200 metres in distance or dropping more than 100 metres since its last start.

6) Eliminate any horse 7 years old or older.

7) Eliminate any filly or mare in a mixed-gender race.

8) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish within 3 lengths of the winner last start, unless it is a qualifier under the first-up rule.

9) Eliminate any runner that is moving from a provincial race to a city race or from one State to another (be aware however of cross border runners between NSW and Victoria who are trained in that border area in SE Qld and Northern Rivers, NSW - they aren't eliminated).

### Today's the day

1) Eliminate any horse that didn't finish second at its last start.

2) Eliminate any horse ridden by an apprentice unless that apprentice is in the top 8 on the premiership ladder in their State or top 3 of the track premiership for the season.

3) Eliminate any horse not between $5 and $26 in the betting.

4) Eliminate any horse carrying more than 6 kilograms over the minimum (unless a WFA or set-weight race).

5) If more than one contender, the selection is the one with the best win strike rate.

### Top chances only

1) Consider only horses with at least eight starts with a win strike rate of at least 25% and a place strike rate of at least 44%.

2) Eliminate any horse that has not won at the distance or within 100 metres shorter or longer than today's distance at any track.

3) Eliminate any horse that has not been placed at today's track.

4) If still more than one contender, the selection becomes the one with the best win strike rate.

5) If the horse is to be ridden by a Top 3 jockey, double the bet.

### Top distance

1. Only consider open class races or welters at city tracks.

2. Only consider the top weight(s).

3. Eliminate it if it hasn’t won within 100 metres of the distance of today’s race.

4. Eliminate it if it hasn’t got a win strike rate of at least 25%.

5. Eliminate any contender that hasn’t won or placed in its last 5 starts.

### Top jockeys

(*Winning Post*, 17 July 2021)

Step 1: Look at the jockeys' premiership table.

Step 2: Note the jockeys who are in the top three in the state.

Step 3: Consider only races where every horse has had at least one run.

Step 4: Look at the horse ridden by any of those top three jockeys.

Step 5: Eliminate any with a win strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 6: Of the remaining qualifiers, eliminate any who are first-up and haven't won fresh. Of those that have raced this time in, eliminate any who have finished more than three lengths from the winner last start.

Step 7: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best win strike rate. If that doesn't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Top-rated CD winners

Rules:

Bet any horse that is clear top on official ratings provided it is also a course and distance winner (denoted C in the formguides).

A horse's official rating is found under **rating** in the *Winning Post* formguide.

### Top trainers

(*Winning Post*, 3 July 2021)

Step 1: Look at the trainers' premiership table.

Step 2: Note the trainers who are in the top three in the state.

Step 3: Consider only races where every horse has had at least one run.

Step 4: Look at the horse prepared by any of those top three trainers.

Step 5: Eliminate any with a win strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 6: Of the remaining qualifiers, eliminate any who are first-up and haven't won fresh. Of those that have raced this time in, eliminate any who have finished more than three lengths from the winner last start.

Step 7: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best win strike rate. If that doesn't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Top two only

A system designed for use on provincial tracks and focusing on those with the best average earnings – not much action with this plan but may be a good winning percentage.

Rules:

1) Only possible contenders are those with the top or second top average earnings.

2) Eliminate any contender with a win strike rate of less than 10%.

3) Eliminate any contender with a place strike rate of less than 15%.

4) Eliminate any contender that finished worse than tenth at its last start or was beaten by more than 6.5 lengths.

5) Eliminate any horse beaten by more than 3.5 lengths at its second-last start or finished further back than fifth.

6) Eliminate any horse hasn’t started for more than 45 days.

7) Eliminate any horse going up or down in weight by more than 1.5kg.

### Topper stopper

This system is an oldie but a goodie. It eliminates betting on short-priced favourites (the road to perdition and damnation).

Rules:

1. Selection must be top weight.

2. Selection must be last-start winner.

3. Price of selection must be better than $3.50 (5/2).

4. To be a final contender, the horse must have started within the last ten days.

5. Eliminate any race that does not have a maximum of 13 runners.

### Topweights on the flat

Rules:

1. Concentrate on flat handicap races which are run over distances of between 1301m and 2099m inclusive.

2. Bet to win on all clear topweights (ignore any jockey claims).

Logic:

The effect of weight is overestimated in the betting markets. This is especially the case on tight tracks, where horses never get into a long gallop when weight may become an issue. The distance limits of the trial are specifically chosen to make full use of the bends on tight tracks, eliminating straight races whilst also negating any potential stamina issues.

### Twelve trifectas

1) Bet only races with 12 or less runners.

2) First selection is the horse you think can win the race.

3) For second, add the topweight (or equal) if it has run a place in the previous three weeks (if your selection is the top weight, use the second top weight).

4) First trifecta is your selection to win, topweight to run second and the balance of the field for third.

5) Second trifecta is the topweight to win, your selection to run second and the balance of the field for third.

6) Invest total is $20 (less if fewer than twelve runners).

### Two every race, aka Two in one

1) Do not use this system on other than metropolitan meetings.

2) The two horses to focus on are the ones with:

a) The horse with the highest average earnings per start.

b) The horse with the highest prize money earnings in total.

3) If one horse qualifies under both rules, it becomes a double bet.

4) Back both horses using the "dutch betting" method to win a set amount per race.

### Two plus

It is surprising how few horses qualify for this seemingly simple plan that is probably best used on the provincial and country tracks.

Rules:

1. Only possible contenders are those that were last-start winners who won by a minimum of 2 lengths.

2. If more than one horse in the race qualifies, there is no bet.

### Two to won

(*Winning Post*, 4 March 2023)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least one start.

Step 2: Look only at horses that finished second at their latest start. This includes horses who are first-up and finished runner-up at the start before the break.

Step 3: Eliminate any horse with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any horse who finished more than three lengths from the winner last start.

Step 5: Eliminate any who will carry an extra 2kg or more this start.

Step 6: Eliminate any who have had three or runs at the track for no wins.

Step 7: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If they're still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Two up

(*Winning Post*, 21 November 2020)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had at least five starts.

Step 2: Look only at horses priced in the range of $5 to $10 inclusive in the pre-post market.

Step 3: Eliminate any horse with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any horse who finished more than three lengths from the winner last start or is first-up and hasn't won fresh.

Step 5: Eliminate any who have had more than three starts at this track and/or over this distance and hasn't won.

Step 6: If you have more than two selections, take the two with the best winning strike rate. If you still can't get it down to two, take the two in the best barriers. Back them both to win. If you have only one candidate, it is the selection.

### 2YO favourites

Consider all non-handicap races for 2-year-olds.

Select the races with a maximum of 10 runners.

Bet on all clear pre-post favourites that have a 2-point advantage over the second favourite.

### Unbeaten horses

Rules:

1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race listed in its history.

2. Unraced horses are ignored.

3. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race, there is no bet for that race.

Logic:

It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses.

### Unnamed favourites

Rules:

Find the race with the lowest prize money for the winner.

In each qualifying race, bet the pre-post favourite to win.

Logic:

Following the market can be misleading in high-value and high-profile races. The shrewd money is often masked by uneducated money.

That is not the case in low-value races, which are mainly ignored by amateur punters. Following the market in these races tends to be more reliable.

### Unnamed second favourites

Rules:

1. Locate the horse which has attracted the highest number of top selections of the day, as displayed in the tipsters' poll.

2. In that particular race, bet the second favourite in the pre-post market.

3. If there is more than one qualifying race on any given day, bet them all.

Logic:

The most-tipped horse of the day is likely to be over-bet for obvious reasons, and this will create potential value elsewhere in the race. These unnamed second-favourites should therefore provide not only value but also a decent strike rate over time.

### Upper limits

This system was designed for use on city tracks with very restrictive selection criteria that looked for value bets rather than short-priced horses.

Rules:

1. Only consider horses on the first four levels of allocated weight.

2. Ignore races for two-year-olds.

3. Ignore any race not between 1600 metres and 2000 metres.

4. Ignore any horse that did not finish in the first three at its last start, which must have been on a city track.

5. Eliminate any horse showing more than $11.00 (10/1).

### Using pre-post prices as true chances

Rules:

1. Identify any race priced up early by bookmakers.

2. Convert the pre-post prices into percentage chances.

3. Add together these percentage figures.

4. Then divide each percentage figure in turn by the total percentage figure (from step 3) and multiply by 100. This provides a new set of percentage chance figures which add to exactly 100%.

5. Convert bookmakers' early prices into percentage chances.

6. Now divide each of the new percentage figures obtained in step 4 by its corresponding percentage figure from step 5 and multiply by 100. This gives a value index for each runner, and a figure above 100 indicates value.

7. Bet to win on the horse with the highest value index (provided it is over 100), taking the early price offered.

8. Should two or more runners have the same high-value index, there is no bet for that race.

Logic:

The main difference between an amateur and a professional is that an amateur sets out their stall purely in an attempt to unearth the winner of a race. In contrast, the professional is primarily concerned with quantifying the chance of each runner.

The amateur loses in the long run because they will take the best price available for their selection without appreciating its true chance of success. In contrast, the professional will only bet on a horse that they perceive as having a greater chance than the available odds imply. That can only be done by quantifying chance.

This trial sets out to assess the accuracy of the pre-post betting market in expressing true chance.

Note: Although any race with a live market can be analysed in this way at any time of day (not necessarily well in advance), only those races priced up early on the evening before racing are covered in this trial.

### Value favourites

Rules:

1. Using the newspaper tipsters' selections provided by each racecard, note those runners to have attracted more top selections than all the other runners in their race put together.

2. Bet to win on those priced at evens or above in the pre-post betting market.

Logic:

Well-touted favourites generally offer little in the way of value. Still, this method attempts to uncover some of those that might.

Even money represents a 50% chance of success. A horse that attracts more than 50% of the total selections, yet is forecast to return at evens or better, can provide some value.

Further comment: Under live conditions, it would obviously be advisable to use actual market prices rather than the pre-post prices used for this trial.

### Victorious visitors

(*Winning Post*, 29 May 2021)

Step 1: Look for horses who have raced this time in and had their run on a metropolitan track in a state different to the one they've accepted for this time.

Step 2: Eliminate any with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 3: Eliminate any horses that has run this time in and finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless it started at less than $4. If it is first-up, eliminate if it hasn't won fresh.

Step 4: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one who has won the most races at this track.

Step 5: Still equal, take the one with the most wins over this trip.

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Waiting for the last race

Rules:

1. Operate only on the last race of the meeting.

2. Look at the list of jockeys with the most course winners over the last 12 months.

3. Working down this table of jockeys, stop at the first one who is riding in this race but not in the previous race.

4. Bet that jockey's mount to win.

Logic:

There is likely to be a good reason for a leading jockey to be waiting around at the track for over an hour (significantly longer in some cases) to ride in the final event, which is often a lower-class affair, sometimes late in the evening.

### Warren's winners

(*Winning Post*, 15 May 2021)

Step 1: Look at the premiership tables.

Step 2: Take note of the top three riders in each state.

Step 3: Look at their rides this week and eliminate any horses with a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Eliminate any horses that has run this time in and finished more than three lengths from the winner last start, unless it started at less than $4. If it is first-up, eliminate if it hasn't won fresh.

Step 5: Retain if the jockey has been on board in the horse's *Winning Post* form (last three or five starts).

Step 6: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate. If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Weight a minute

(*Winning Post*, 26 September 2020)

Step 1: Operate only on handicap races and set-weights-and-penalties races.

Step 2: Eliminate any horse that has 5kg or more above the bottom weight. For the purpose of this system, use the handicap weights, and don't take apprentice claims into account.

Step 3: Eliminate unless the horse has raced at least twice this time in and finished fourth or better at each of its past two outings.

Step 4: Eliminate any runner that is $10 or more in the pre-post market.

Step 5: If you need a tie-breaker, take the runner with the best winning strike rate.

Step 6: If still equal, take the one in the best barrier.

### Weight minus

1) Do not use this plan on set weight or weight for age or maiden races.

2) Write down each horse's weight after any allowances.

3) Look at the horse's last three starts and then deduct the following from the weight figure:

i) 15 points for each win in last three starts.

ii) 10 points for each second in last three starts.

iii) 5 points for each third in last three starts.

iv) 3 points for each fourth or fifth placing in last three starts.

4) Horse with the lowest number is the selection.

### Weight points

* Operates only on open and welter class races on metro meetings.
* Eliminate any runner handicapped on the minimum weight.
* Draw a line through the field at the 56kg mark. Any horse above the line is a #1 chance and any below the line are #2 chances..
* Looking at the #1 horses check out those on the first three lines of betting:
	+ Favourite: 10 points.
	+ 2nd favourite: 8 points.
	+ 3rd favourite: 6 points.
	+ Same weight last start: 10 points.
	+ Up 0.5kg or 1kg from last start: 8 points.
	+ Up 1.5kgs or 2kgs from last start: 6 points.
	+ Down 0.5kg or 1kg from last start: 8 points.
	+ Down 1.5kgs or 2kgs from last start: 6 points.
	+ Down 2.5kgs or more from last start 3 points.
* Now check any of the #2 list of horses on the same basis only if is favourite.
* The contender with the most points is the selection.
* If equal on points, ignore the race.

### Well-beaten favourites

Rules:

1. Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite on its last run, provided it didn't finish within a length per 200 metres of the winner. For example, if the race was 2000 metres, it didn't finish within 10 lengths of the winner.

2. Should there be more than one qualifier in any race, there will be no bet for that race.

Logic:

A well-beaten favourite is likely not to have run its race for whatever reason. Due to its heavy defeat, punters' confidence will probably be tempered for its next run and its subsequent price might be too big. There was likely a valid reason for a heavy defeat in a race where a horse was thought to be the likeliest winner. Compensation could await at a much bigger price.

### What happened

This system focuses on horses that won two starts ago but may have performed poorly at their most recent start. Seems best suited to city tracks.

Rules:

1) Eliminate any race whose distance is not between 1000 metres and 1400 metres.

2) Eliminate any race with less than 10 starters.

3) Any contender must have won its second last start and must have a career win strike rate of better than 10%.

4) Any contender must not have won or been placed at its last start.

5) Eliminate any horse that has not has at least two runs from a spell.

6) Eliminate any horse whose last start was not between 10 and 17 days ago.

7) If more than one horse remains, back the one carrying the highest weight.

### Wide draw suits

(*Winning Post*, 8 May 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races where every horse has had least five starts.

Step 2: Look at horses that have drawn 10 or wider.

Step 3: Eliminate any that have a winning strike rate of less than 20%.

Step 4: Look at the recent form of the qualifiers (three or five starts in the *Winning Post*). Eliminate any runner that hasn't placed from barrier 10 or wider in that period.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 6: If you still have more than one, take the one that has won the most races at this track. If you still can't split them, take the one drawn widest.

### Winform winners

Consider the top-rated horse in the race, the top selection in a tipsters' poll, or the pre-post favourite.

Eliminate if it is drawn outside barrier 9.

The race must have 8 runners or more.

It must have finished within 3 lengths of the winner last start, or was a last-start winner.

It must be carrying 57kg or less.

Eliminate any horse that was up in class by more than the equivalent of one kilogram.

It must have had at least two starts.

It must be in the top six on average prizemoney, and have averaged at least $1,000 per start.

It must have 15% wins and 50% places in its career to date.

### Winners drop

1) Bet on all races except 2YO races, maidens and jumping events.

2) The only contenders can be those that ran first or second at their last start.

3) Eliminate any horse not dropping 2kg or more in its handicapped race (ignore apprentice allowances).

4) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 21 days ago.

5) If more than one contender, bet on the one dropping the most weight.

### Winning flat sires

Rules:

1. Operate on flat races only.

2. Identify the top three flat sires, in terms of races won by their progeny during the previous racing season. For example, if using the system in 2022/23, check the flat sire stats for races won during 2021/22.

3. Identify the progeny of those sires running today.

4. If there is more than one qualifier in the same race, there is no bet for that particular race.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2017/18 were: Snitzel, I Am Invincible, and Written Tycoon.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2018/19 were: I Am Invincible, Snitzel, and Written Tycoon.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2019/20 were: I Am Invincible, Written Tycoon, and Snitzel.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2020/21 were: I Am Invincible, Written Tycoon, and Snitzel.

The top three sires, in terms of races won by their progeny in 2021/22 were: I Am Invincible, Written Tycoon, and Zoustar.

Logic:

Some sires are responsible for providing many winners, whilst a large percentage produce very few or none. In 2019/20, a total of 1265 sires had progeny running in flat races in Australia.

During that season, 25.25% of all flat race wins (5524 of 21878) were responsible for just 28 (2.21%) of those sires.

Meanwhile, 351 sires (27.75%) failed to provide a single flat winner during the season, although it is true to say that many of them had very few runners.

Three sires were each responsible for 275 or more flat race successes during the 2019/20 season (I Am Invincible 326, Snitzel 291, and Written Tycoon 275). They represented a mere 0.24% of sires with flat runners that season. Still, they were collectively responsible for 4.08% of all flat race wins (892 from 21878). It is worth noting that individual strike rates for sires are misleading because two or more progeny often compete against each other in the same race.

### Winning habits

1) Operate only on races between 1200 and 3200 metres but not 2YO races or jumps races.

2) Eliminate any horse that did not win its last start.

3) Eliminate any horse that has won its last three starts.

4) Eliminate any horse drawn wider than barrier 14.

5) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 200 metres shorter or over 300 metres longer than today's distance.

6) Eliminate any horse whose weight last start wasn't within three kilograms of today's handicapped weight (ignore claims).

7) Eliminate any horse handicapped at more than 60kg or less than 54kg (ignore claims).

8) Eliminate any horse whose lifetime win percentage is not more than 19%.

)9 Eliminate any horse that hasn't been at least placed at today's distance and hasn't been at least placed on the track conditions.

10) Eliminate any horse whose last start was more than 9 days ago and whose second last start was more than 17 days before that.

### Young handicappers

Rules:

1. Bet any horse if it is the youngest runner in a handicap.

2. If there is more than one qualifier in a race, there will be no bet for that race.

Logic:

Unexposed horses are often underestimated in the market because punters are unsure of their potential. Younger handicappers usually have less experience than their older rivals, but they generally possess a greater scope for improvement.

### Young value (version 1)

(*Winning Post*, 6 March 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races restricted to two-year-olds or three-year-olds.

Step 2: Eliminate any first-starters.

Step 3: Eliminate any last-start winners, unless they were at a non-metro tracks.

Step 4: Eliminate any who started at more than $10 last start and finished more than three lengths from the winner.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, eliminate any maidens.

Step 6: If you need a tie-breaker, take the one who has won the most races.

Step 7: If still equal, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 8: If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Young value (version 2)

(*Winning Post*, 13 March 2021)

Step 1: Look only at races restricted to two-year-olds or three-year-olds.

Step 2: Eliminate any first-starters.

Step 3: Eliminate any last-start winners, unless they were at a non-metro tracks.

Step 4: Eliminate any who started at more than $10 last start and finished more than three lengths from the winner.

Step 5: If you have more than one qualifier, eliminate any maidens. If you need a tie-breaker, take the one with the biggest price in the pre-post market.

Step 6: If still equal, take the one with the best winning strike rate.

Step 7: If you still can't split them, take the one in the best barrier.

### Young stayers

Rules:

1. Concentrate on all flat races to be run over 2600 metres or further. (This rule may need to be changed to suit Australian conditions.)

2. In cases where one of the runners is younger than all the others, bet that horse to win.

3. System applies to both handicap and non-handicap races.

Logic:

Younger stayers on the flat traditionally have a very good record against their elders. This trial aims to determine whether they are underestimated in the betting market.