Episode 1074: Time is a Flat Cycle

## Summary

*Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan have an only slightly outdated discussion of Freddie Freeman's potential position change and a Coors Field scoreboard message, then answer listener emails about a ground-rule-double derby, an amateur GM taking over a team, where pitcher mechanics come from, what writers root for, how to tell when a new metric makes sense, Jake Arrieta's free agency, hitters who get plunked more often than they walk, a different way to charge the mound, the predictive power of foul balls, how to pick a favorite team, whether Aaron Judge will be a trailblazer, the relationship between jams and rallies, and more.*

## Topics

* Ground rule double derby
* Amateur GMs
* Developing pitcher mechanics
* How writers enjoy baseball
* How to know a new statistic is reliable
* Jake Arrieta's free agent contract
* Players charging the mound
* Deciding which team to root for
* Predictive power of foul balls
* Developing tall position players
* Baseball terminology - rally

## Banter

* Freddie Freeman possible move to third base when he returns from injury because of Matt Adams' success.
* Nolan Arenado hit for the cycle by hitting a walk off home run at Coors Field. The scoreboard message afterwards celebrated the cycle rather than the home run or Rockies win.

## Email Questions

* Eric (NY): I don't know why my eye was drawn to the Coors Field scoreboard during Nolan Arenado's walk-off home run on Sunday, but I thought you guys might be similarly interested/outraged that the graphic as he rounds the bases reads "CYCLE" instead of "ROCKIES WIN" or "WALK-OFF" or even "HOME RUN". I'm not completely anti-cycle worship, but aren't any of those three labels a little more exciting in that specific moment? Would be interested to know if you're at all bothered by the choice of that nameless Rockies game ops employee.

* Harold: Would you watch a ground rule double derby?  I think I would. I feel like it would be way harder. Maybe it would be the most boring thing ever. Any other derby style events that you think might be interesting? Bunt base hit derby maybe?

* Spencer: Let's say it is Opening Day of this year, and you magically become GM of a team that is both good and has a good farm system. For this hypothetical let's use the Astros. All of your subordinates in the front office treat you with the same amount of respect they would give Jeff Luhnow i.e., every move you make won't be intensely scrutinized because you're new and have no experience. How long do you think it would take for your inexperience to show itself on the field? I would think at least a couple years due to the amount of talent that is under control for a while. How long do you think you would last?"

* Jonny: Quite simply... How does a young beginning pitcher first develop his mechanics that usually stick with him through this career? How much is taught and how much is intuitive? There seems to be a natural character that starts from a very young age that gets refined as a pitcher grows/develops, but often still retains the same quirks.

* Greg: Keon Broxton just hit a home run. A long home run. Naturally, the first thing I thought was, "well, Jeff’s gonna love that." And that got me thinking: I know that neither of you are "fans" exactly, and I know that in the past you've talked about rooting for a game outcome or rooting for a stat to play out fittingly, but I also know that you talk about the banality of baseball in general, so how do you do what Jeff must do when Keon Broxton hits a long home run? How do you maintain enjoyment of the game? As a fan, it's easy to put a finger on the derivation of *our* enjoyment: our own team’s successes, but as a writer, can you put a finger on the heart your own enjoyment?

* JJ: I've been wondering lately how we know when a metric is accurate/trustworthy. xwOBA comes to mind in particular, but it also applies to DRA and some of the other new metrics we have. I don't necessarily have any reason to doubt them, but I also don't have any way of knowing how telling they really are. How does one rectify that? Do we just have to play the waiting game, or a should I be terrified by the fact that Guillermo Heredia has something like a .275 xwOBA?

* John: What is the range of outcomes Jake Arrieta has on his upcoming free agent contract depending on his rest-of-season performance? He seems like an obvious guy that teams should be extremely wary of even if he somehow turns it around, but I suppose it is usually unwise to bet against Boras getting his man a deal.

* Tony: After hearing you talk about the Harper brawl, I wondered if you had any insight in to why batters don't take first base after an HBP then charge the pitcher when the pitcher is less ready for the confrontation.

* Alex: The *Washington Post* had a great story about a dad writing to each of the 30 MLB teams and asking them why his newborn son should be a fan of them. If that dad wrote you and asked who his son should support, who would you say? What factors are most important for picking a team for life? Might you suggest rooting for a non-MLB team? The Nippon-Ham Fighters with Shohei Ohtani (for now) or maybe a minor league team?

* Les: I was watching a game this weekend when a batter fouled a pitch straight back to the screen. I could have predicted what the announcers were going to say next: "He was right on that one." And indeed, they did say something very much like that, indicating that when a batter fouls a pitch straight back, he is timing the pitcher very well, and perhaps beyond that, is very close to doing some damage on one of the next pitches. My questions are: (1) Is this true? (2) If yes, how do we know? (3) If no, why do announcers say it? And finally, (4) What is the "best" kind of foul ball to hit, where "best" means "predictive of success in the at bat"? Thank you!

* Sam: It seems to be commonly accepted that baseball is just going to continue to get bigger, stronger and faster. Is Aaron Judge single-handedly fast-forwarding this timeline? If you hadn't noticed... Aaron Judge has been very good this year. Aaron Judge is also a very large man. Do you and Jeff think that the success of this behemoth may cause coaches/scouts to start evaluating players with less bias instead of dividing the player pool into 6'4 and over (pitchers) and 6'3 and under (position players)? How many of these lousy-hitting pitchers *could have been* Aaron Judge if their high school coach would have let them ride out being the tall, skinny first baseman?

* Cory: In the clip you played of Buck Martinez talking about consecutive pick-offs, he says that when he came to the plate they "still had a rally going." Given that there was never more than one runner on base, does this seem like a rally to you? Maybe this is an application of the "jam" crowdsourcing. One could say that a team has a rally going when it manages to put the opposing pitcher in a jam.

## Stat Blast

Jeff looks at players since 1901 who have finished a season with as many or more hit by pitches as walks drawn.

* This season Josh Harrison has 14 hit by pitches and has drawn just 7 walks.

## Notes

* Jeff wants to see a 'batting accuracy' derby where the hitter has to try and hit a ball into a certain part of the field that lights up.
* Ben and Jeff think their biggest struggles as a GM would be building a staff and establishing connections with other teams.
* Jeff, "Every single thing about a pitcher can be tweaked, even their [scary voice] braiiins".
* Jeff thinks that whichever team signs Jake Arrieta will regret it within a few months.
* Jeff discusses different curses that scouts/players use and notes that charging a pitcher from 1st would be a 'chicken sh\*t' move.
* Ben & Jeff agree that all rallies are jams, but not all jams are rallies. They think that for a team to get a rally going they must be losing the game.

## Links

* Effectively Wild Episode 1074: Time is a Flat Cycle
* 2012 KBO All-Star Bunt King competition
* How to choose your favorite team? A dad asks every MLB team to woo his son by Dan Steinberg