Economic policy of the Tom Kirkman administration

The **economic policy of the Tom Kirkman administration**, frequently referred to as "**Kirkmanomics**," is characterized by individual tax cuts, job expansion and lowered unemployment, balancing the budget, welfare reform, increased wages, and immigration reform.

Kirkman took office at the height of the longest economic expansion in American history. The expansion began in June 2009 and abruptly ended in January 2017, hours after he was first sworn in, due to the Capitol Bombing. The U.S. stock market's futures hit a ten-year low. In response, Kirkman's first term included restoring the Moss administration's baseline banking and market regulation. As the economy recovered, he expanded on his pro-jobs agenda, resulting in record low unemployment with higher wages.

At the start of his second term, as the economy continued to expand to its pre-Capitol Bombing levels, Kirkman further acted on his job creation, welfare reform, and energy policies. As part of the Kirkman administration's budget balancing policy, the 2022 United States federal budget submitted to the United States Congress included an implemented government spending cap. The Department of the Treasury estimated that the spending cap, along with the gradually decreasing budget deficit since fiscal year 2018, would result in a $120 billion surplus, the first since 2001.

## Overview

### Economic outlook

#### 2009-2017

President Kirkman inherited an economy in January 2017 at a record level on numerous key measures, including individuals in the workforce, household income, and stock market level. Many historians and political scientists credit the actions of the Cornelius Moss administration in responding to the Great Recession as a primary cause for the prolonged period of economic expansion. The period continued through the Robert Richmond administration. Inflation, however, was on a very slight rise through Richmond's reelection and second inauguration. In the 2017 State of the Union address, Richmond promoted his social safety-net agenda and called for a response to minor rises in inflation through moderate tax increases on higher income Americans. Kirkman, who served as the secretary of housing of urban development, proposed bipartisan affordable housing proposals, none of which Richmond included in his address, causing a late rift between the two individuals.

#### Post-Capitol Bombing-May 2017

The expansion that first began in June 2009 abruptly ended in January 2017, hours after Kirkman was first sworn in, due to the Capitol Bombing. Government vacancies and bombing scares caused the unemployment rate to jump from 4.8% to 5.1% in February 2017, well above the modern historical rate. Nearly half of civilian workers employed by the federal government left the labor service over terrorism concerns, in addition to the 1,000+ government official casualties in the bombing. Stock market futures plummeted and national banks were predicted to collapse due to the abrupt increase in monetary withdrawals.

#### May 2017-present

In May 2017, the national unemployment rate dropped from 5.1% to 4.7% following the 2017 House of Representatives special elections and Senate appointments, which elected a new United States Congress. Shortly after the convening of the 116th United States Congress, government agencies reported record jobs increases, making up for lost workers in the wake of the attack on the Capitol. The stock market began to improve shortly after it reopened in February, but suffered minor setbacks as a result of the unilateral actions of Peter MacLeish during the 2017 constitutional crisis. Targeted and resulted budget deficits from fiscal years 2018, 2019, and 2020 progressively lowered with the institution of a spending cap. The unemployment rate fell from 4.7% in May 2017 to 3.5% in January 2021 at Kirkman's second inauguration, a 50-year low. Studies have suggested that Kirkman's policies have had a central part in the economic recovery and subsequent expansion following the Capitol Bombing, and increased employment overall.

### Economic strategy

*See also: Political positions of Tom Kirkman*

The economic policies of U.S. President Tom Kirkman have been described as fiscally conservative. Much of his overall spending basis has been likened to that of Cornelius Moss, whom he has repeatedly cited as a mentor. He has combined aspects of economic strategies from both the traditionally conservative Republican Party and liberal Democratic Party. According to analysts, his combination of ideological economic policies have given Kirkman a high approval on jobs and the economy, which provide credibility for his base of centrists, moderates, liberals, and conservative voters.

### Taxation

Despite serving in the Richmond administration, Kirkman was opposed to the 35% corporate tax rate. In the fall of 2017, the Kirkman administration proposed an overhaul of the United States' taxation system.

#### Tax Reform Act

*Main article: Tax Reform Act of 2017*

Kirkman proposed the Tax Reform Act of 2017 in November 2017. The bill would amend Title 26 of United States Code by lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%, replacing numerous individual tax codes with a single, progressive tax code charging proportionally based on annual income, and cutting federal taxes for middle class Americans making under $400,000 yearly.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that the bill would improve private business hiring and employment, and would eliminate most loopholes for tax evasion among the highest earning individuals. Additionally, although not a wealth tax, the bill would raise individual taxes on the highest earning Americans by 5% through the enactment of the single progressive tax code. CBO also reported that the individual tax mandate would pay for the bill itself and the economically-acceptable 25% corporate tax rate would not add to the national debt over ten years.

The House of Representatives passed the bill on November 21, 2017, and the Senate passed it on December 18. President Kirkman signed the bill into law on December 20, 2017, and it immediately took effect in fiscal year 2018.

#### Individual taxes

The Tax Reform Act lowered individual taxes for those earning $400,000 or less annually. Most middle class Americans saw a tax break on their 2018 federal taxes.

#### Corporate taxes

The 25% corporate tax rate set by the Tax Reform Act does not expire, unlike previous tax bills. Further legislation would be required to adjust or amend it.

#### Impact on the economy, deficit, and debt

The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation of the United States Congress published a macroeconomics analysis which reported that the Kirkman administration's tax policy would do the following:

* Gross domestic product would be 1.7% higher on average each year relative to the CBO baseline forecast due to an increase in labor supply and business investment.
* Employment would be 1.2% higher from 2017-2025. The lower marginal tax rate on labor would provide strong incentives for an increase in labor supply.
* Wealth inequality would be substantially narrowed pursuant to the single individual tax mandate eliminating evasion loopholes.
* The economic annual growth rate would, on average, be 3.6% over eight years.

The CBO estimated that implementing the Tax Reform Act would not add to the national debt over ten years because of the 5% individual tax increase on the highest earning Americans. A 1.2% increase in employment with individual tax breaks for Americans earning $400,000 or less annually would allow for higher wages and working class individuals being able to hold on to more of their income.

### Healthcare

#### Health insurance coverage

Kirkman has repeatedly called healthcare coverage a "human right" and has vowed to achieve universal healthcare in the United States by the end of his presidency. He opposes Medicare for All, but has introduced his own universal healthcare plan. Under the Kirkman plan, the Department of Health and Human Services would oversee a universal healthcare system administered by private insurance companies with the federal government setting only coverage requirements. Additionally, Medicare would solely be used to cover all individuals ineligible or those that do not want private insurance. The poor and unemployed would also be covered with no work requirements under Medicaid. Both programs would be fully funded by the federal government, and allows states some oversight but prohibits them from setting their own standards. The United States Congress would also set the maximum prescription drug price at $10. All prescription drugs in the United States would be under $10. Kirkman has frequently criticized pharmaceutical companies controlling drug prices in the U.S., equivalating them to 19th century monopolies, and has said "the time has come to guarantee healthcare as a human right in this country."

According to independent analysis, the plan would achieve universal healthcare in the United States different from that of most other nations. Although not necessarily a single-payer or free healthcare system, the plan would be one of the most affordable in the world. A study estimated that if enacted, the plan would save nearly US$500 billion annually, and would save more than 70,000 lives each year.

#### Legislation

*Main article: Universal Healthcare Act*

Kirkman, as an independent, has been able to achieve bipartisan support for his plan. A majority of Democratic and Republican lawmakers support the plan, including House speaker Margaret Clay and conservative icon Cornelius Moss. In January 2022, Clay introduced the Universal Healthcare Act of 2022, which would achieve universal healthcare in the United States based on the Kirkman plan. A majority of the Republican and Democratic caucuses in both the House of Representatives and Senate support the bill, despite some opposition from some farther-right conservatives, such as U.S. senator Jack Bowman.

The Universal Healthcare Act is currently under review by its respective committees of jurisdiction, where it is highly anticipated to be released for a floor vote. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that if enacted into law, the bill would achieve universal healthcare in the United States while cutting the federal budget deficit by more than a third.

### Federal budget and debt (2017-present)

#### Summary

President Kirkman's budget policies have decreased federal budget deficits and U.S. debt trajectory over the last five years.

* Fiscal year 2018 (FY 2018) ran from October 1, 2017 through September 30, 2018. It was the first fiscal year budgeted by Kirkman. The Department of the Treasury reported that the budget deficit decreased from $666 billion in FY2017 to $487 billion in FY2018. Corporate tax receipts fell by 2%, but was covered entirely by 5% tax increases on wealthy Americans. The 2018 deficit was an estimated 3.2% of GDP, down from 3.5% GDP in 2017.
* Fiscal year 2019 (FY 2019) ran from October 1, 2018 through September 30, 2019. The Treasury Department reported that the budget deficit decreased from $487 billion in FY2018 to $391 billion. Corporate tax rate receipts remained the same from FY2018. The 2019 deficit was an estimated 2.9% of the GDP, down from 3.2% in 2018.
* Fiscal year 2020 (FY 2020) ran from October 1, 2019 through September 30, 2020. The Treasury Department reported that the budget deficit decreased from $391 billion in FY2019 to $263 billion in FY2020. Corporate tax rate receipts continued to remain untouched for the third consecutive fiscal year. The 2020 deficit was an estimated 1.9% of the GDP, the lowest since 1997.
* Fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021) ran from October 1, 2020 through September 30, 2021. The Treasury Department reported that the budget deficit decreased from $263 billion in FY2020 to $143 billion. The 2021 deficit was an estimated 1.3% of the GDP.
* Fiscal year 2022 (FY 2022) the current fiscal year, running from October 1, 2021 through September 30, 2022. For the first time since 1998, the Treasury Department expects to have a budget surplus. The 2022 federal budget, as submitted by the Kirkman administration, estimated a $120 billion budget surplus, 1.1% of GDP. The Treasury Department has stated that the federal budget would remain close to the same as FY2022 for the remainder of Kirkman's presidency. If accurate, the budget surpluses from FY2022 through FY2025 would be used to pay off some of the U.S.' national debt.

Due to the Tax Reform Act of 2017, the Kirkman's largest and only major spending bill, the American Jobs Act, entirely paid for itself.

#### Budget balancing

In a press conference on his 100th day in office, Kirkman vowed to address a series of issues, notably balancing the federal budget. He proposed sharp decreases in government spending over ten years by increasing domestic manufacturing and expanding job creation, thus reducing the welfare state. FY2018 through FY2022 gradually cut the federal budget and lowered the deficit.

Kirkman's primary target for budget balancing is welfare programs. After his job proposals increased employment by 1.2% after the enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 2017, he sharply decreased funding for welfare programs to a proportion level matching current individuals receiving government assistance. Kirkman also cut funding for hundreds of several side agencies, which he viewed as unnecessary, and redirected their focus to larger oversight agencies. The plan also relocated government employment of the respective side agencies to the larger ones, and thus resulted in no job loss.

### Labor market

#### Jobs and unemployment

In 2017, Kirkman promised to create tens of millions of new jobs, primarily in infrastructure and domestic manufacturing. At the start of his second term, the U.S. economy had gained 11 million new jobs since he first took office. The unemployment rate when Kirkman took office was 4.7%, but it rose to 6.4% only hours later after the Capitol Bombing; as of January 2022, it is 3.4%.

The unemployment rate was below the median norm at 4.7% under the Richmond administration. Hours after Kirkman took office, it skyrocketed to 6.4% as a result of the economic drag from the Capitol attack. By the fall of 2017, the unemployment rate had lowered to 5.6%. Employment increased by 1.2% following the enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 2017, lowering the unemployment rate again to 4.4% At Kirkman's second inauguration, the unemployment rate had lowered from 4.4% to 3.4% and a record 10 million new jobs were created in his first term. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the enactment of the American Jobs Act would create an additional 11 million new jobs, bringing total projected job creation under the Kirkman presidency to 21 million. If accurate, the unemployment rate would be an estimated 2.6% at the time Kirkman leaves office, which would be the lowest in over fifty years.

#### Labor force participation

As of January 2022, the U.S. labor force participation rate was 64.3%, nearly 2 percentage points higher than the labor force participation rate when Kirkman took office.

#### Wages

Kirkman promised wage improvement and campaigned on it in his 2020 reelection campaign. Hourly wages for private sector production and nonsupervisory workers began steadily rising in 2012 and continued under Kirkman.

#### Minimum wage

Kirkman supports legislation to raise the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 to $12, believing it is economically acceptable due to the economic growth under his administration.

### Economic growth

U.S. GDP growth under Kirkman has been substantially higher than under past presidents, primarily due to his jobs and domestic manufacturing policies.

### Infrastructure

*Main article: Infrastructure policy of the Tom Kirkman administration*

Kirkman has signed several executive orders focused on domestic infrastructure projects. He has been focused on increasing jobs in the infrastructure sector and promoting American-made materials for domestic infrastructure projects. He vowed to invest in infrastructure over ten years, highlighted by the American Jobs Act of 2021.

### Energy and environment

*Main articles: Infrastructure policy of the Tom Kirkman administration, Environmental policy of the Tom Kirkman administration*

Kirkman accepts the scientific consensus on climate change, but differs with many politicians on how to address it. He opposes progressive movements to eradicate all fossil fuels by a given date, and instead is in favor of a gradual shift to renewable resources and cleaner fossil fuels, such as natural gas. Kirkman solidified the permits on all existing oil and gas pipelines in the United States, but ordered all future energy projects to be renewable. He banned drilling in the Arctic Refuge, but ordered all currently-leased drilling land to be used at full capacity with strict environmental regulation.

Under Kirkman, oil, gas, and general prices overall entered a period of deflation. Coal use continued to sharply decline as new coal-fired power plants were banned under the administration's energy and environental policy. Natural gas production, however, increased, though carbon capture methods were in place. In 2021, the United States reached energy independence under a combined renewable and restricted fossil fuel grid, and the White House announced that no new oil imports had been recorded. Carbon and greenhouse gas emissions have overall decreased under the Kirkman administration.

### Inflation

Inflation over the course of the Kirkman administration has decreased.

* Inflation measures by the consumer price index for all items decreased from 2017 through 2021. This was mainly driven by lower energy prices.
* Core inflation has been relatively flat. The highest national average gas price under the Kirkman administration thus far has been $2.99.

### Trade

#### USMCA

Under Kirkman, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was replaced by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The new agreement entered into effect in 2019.

USMCA is similar to NAFTA, carrying most of the same provisions, but it greatly domestic jobs in each nation. Under the agreement, the three nations would focus on domestic job creation and proportional export rates. This was primarily in response to the negative impact on the United States due to the increase in foreign manufacturing under NAFTA.

#### Trade deficit

Although a free-trader, Kirkman promised to reduce the United States' trade deficit during his presidency. Since he has taken office, it has gradually decreased after several free trade negotiations with numerous nations.

### Manufacturing

Kirkman has prioritized domestic manufacturing as key to his domestic jobs agenda. He signed a series of executive orders on increasing domestic manufacturing. The American Jobs Act, signed into law in 2021, also greatly decreases reliance on foreign imports from China over the next decade by expanding on new domestic manufacturing jobs.

### Immigration

*Main article: Immigration policy of the Tom Kirkman administration*

Kirkman's immigration policies are focused on a system overhaul and the expansion of border security. He proposed building a modernized border barrier on the Mexico-United States border in order to restrict illegal migration. Under Kirkman's policy, a pathway to citizenship is offered to all undocumented immigrants with no criminal record. Individuals are given one opportunity to enter the legalization process or be deported. Any undocumented individual with a criminal record is automatically deported to their country of origin.

In February 2017, Kirkman ordered a fleet of aircraft transporting hundreds of Syrian refugees to Florida to divert and land in Canada after widespread opposition to the intake following the Capitol Bombing. Reaction to his order was mixed, with some politicians praising his decision while others criticized it.

In March 2021, Kirkman instituted the Advanced Asylum Review Policy (AARP), which orders all asylum seekers to remain in their country of origin while their request is being processed by the Department of Homeland Security. While most politicians and Americans overall support the policy, progressive Democrats frequently criticized it.

The United States Congress passed the Advanced Asylum Review Act in February 2022 expanding on the AARP signed by Kirkman.

### Regulation

Kirkman supports baseline economic regulation to stimulate growth, but is opposed to excessive regulation.

### Household financial position

#### Stock market

The stock market standing under Kirkman initially started out weak, but greatly expanded later into his first year. Stock market futures hit a ten year low following the Capitol Bombing, but began to rebound weeks after. They took another dip during the 2017 constitutional crisis as a direct result of the unilateral actions of then-acting president Peter MacLeish, but quickly recovered.

#### Household net worth

Household net worth is the sum of financial, real estate, and business assets (non-corporate), less liabilities. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation) it declined in 2008 due to the Great Recession but resumed steadily rising in 2009 and reached its sixth consecutive annual record high in 2017. This was primarily driven by stock market increases, although housing price increases also contributed.

#### Household income

Real median household income has continued in record territory under President Kirkman.

#### Household Economic well-being

In an annual report, a study found that nearly 80% of American adults surveyed were "living comfortably" in 2022, a record high.

#### Food stamps

SNAP participation had been steadily declining since December 2012 and has continued under Kirkman.