The Black Swan Event

The term "*Black Swan Event*" refers to the fact that events which have not been observed before are nearly

   impossible to predict and plan for. Examples include the effect of a storm in a desert which has not seen rain in hundreds of years, the unforseen technological breakthrough caused by a seemingly unrelated study, or dark plumage on a bird previously believed to be white. Being that Black Swan Events have never been recorded, there is no data on them, or even much knowledge on how to predict what they may be until after they have occured, making them neigh impossible to plan for.

When the Technocrats refer to **The Black Swan Event**, they are referring to a theoretical, yet inevitable event. The single most unpredictable event which humankind is faced with, which has never been recorded and never happened, and yet, which will most certainly have the largest effect on humanity in its history, and most certainly will not be forseen...

The event which leads to the Extinction of the Human Species.

When The Technocracy was founded, the immortals who created revealed their most elaborate and forward-thinking scheme to its members, the scheme of delaying the nearly-inevitable extinction of the human species. This goal has been one of the centralmost machinations of the Technocracy for its entire history, leading to some of the stranger obsessions of the Technocracy, such as deep-Soi drilling studies, polar expeditions, and the construction of some of the largest telescopes on the planet. It is because of this Machination that the Technocracy has also been known to build nigh-impenetrable vaults and bunkers beneath cities, which run their own small, self-sustained ecologies, and could potentially house a small population through the dark days following such an event.

Outsiders do not know about the Machination, for fear of two possible extremes: mass panic and the demand to focus on more pressing issues. Because of this, everything the Technocracy does in this Machination is either mistaken for something else, or completely baffles outside observers.

## Known Potential Events

Before their abdication, the Immortals of the Circle had been searching tirelessly for potential threats. Upon abdication, they left a list of possible threats which boggled the minds of the incoming Technocrats. While some of these threats are more credible than others, some are very plausible scenarios which could be brought to other nations. Other threats seem almost to be a misunderstanding of the nature of other peoples, or at the worst implausible outcomes and fears.

### Goran Expansion

*The Goran are an Expansionist power, right? And they keep breeding and building, right? And that's just their religion, right? So what happens when they run out of room?*

### Weapons of Mass Destruction

*You know how much damage a nitro-bomb can do? The Lost World had weapons that could do that to a PLANET!*

### Irresponsible Experimentation

*You know how we have all those safety regulations and procedures? Not everyone does that.*

The existence of rogue Biomorphs, such as Corpsebloom, is proof of this one's reality.

### Climate Collapse

*Remember what almost happened in Kallipolis? Think that, but Kallipolis is the whole damn planet.*

### Subterranean Temperature Change

*What... Would that mean?*

The Scholars of the Geology Department at first thought of their experiment to measure Soi's core temperatures as being a mere novelty which might have future applications. When the second experiment a decade later showed a drop of several degrees, the Immortals immediately turned their full attention to the news. Another experiment showed a temperature between the two, but the fear was there: the temperature of Soi's core had shown volatility, and volatility meant the potential for disaster.

### Meteor Strike

*See those rocks? They may look small from here, but they're huge, and they're going really fast. What if one of them hit us?*

### Alien Invasion

*If the Immortals are from another world... ...Then who else could be?*

## Preventative Measures

### Pacify the Goran

The Goran are a force with the power to both cause and prevent these events. If their religion and politics could be permenantly shifted in a more thoughtful direction, that could be the difference between a global collapse and an age of peace.

### Educate the Wise Masters

The Wise Masters are very powerful, but have no sense of responsibility. If the Wise Masters were better educated, however, they may have a better understanding of Economics, and how to plan for the future of their company. Granted, a competent The Family Hearth  could be bad in the long run, but at least they won't destroy the planet.

### Infiltrate the Academy

The Technocracy suspects the Academy of using the world as a petri-dish for their experiments, and if the CorpseBloom epidemic was them, they're definitely not concerned with the lives of others. After all, why would they be? They've locked themselves in an impenetrable fortress, refuse to talk to us, and are actively trying to keep the rest of the world from gaining access to new technology. The Director has likened himself to a God, and clearly not a benevolent one. Getting agents inside of the Academy is an important endeavor, as knowing what they're up to would eliminate the unknown.

...Obviously, if such an agent found any weaponry with a high enough yield to destroy the fortress, that might be both the evidence of this fear, and the method by which to solve the problem once and for all.

### Watch the Skies

The Immortal rulers of the other nations know about the dangers of the cosmos. If they saw something big coming through a telescope, most of them would immediately drop their factional divides to make defending the planet a number one priority.