2022 Power Rankings-Week 12

## Introduction

Is it just me or does everybody suck this year? *This is the first time in LOC history that only one team has reached 7 wins through 11 weeks.* Because of how the matchups stack this week, the league is guaranteed to have at least four teams that are .500 or worse through 12 weeks, with a possibility for six.

Last week, six teams failed to break 200 points, with five falling below 171. Two of the four teams that broke 200 points were 4-6 and both still lost.

2021's highest-scoring team was ma ma momma said, who averaged 231.3 points per week. This season the highest scoring team is Pain Train, who is averaging 221.88 a week. The next highest is Stupid Idiots with 214.13 points per week. That wouldn't even be enough to place either team among the top-20 scorers in league history and it would be the second season in league history that a season was not represented on this list (2015 being the other). Outside of them, nobody has cracked 2300 points through 11 weeks.

On the other hand, the lowest scoring team is Papa's Posse (by a narrow 0.01, Paddock 9 being the second-lowest). If the season ended after week 11, Papa would be the lowest scoring team with a per-game average of 198.88. That is *way* higher than the top-10 lowest scoring teams throughout history. In fact, thanks to the offensive boom in recent years across the NFL, the top-10 lowest scoring teams list has not been cracked since 2017 when JarJar logged the fourth-worst regular season ever.

So maybe everyone doesn't suck...but I'm not convinced. Pain Train may be on track for top score of 2022 but he also has a 126.19 point performance. Stupid Idiots has five games under 180 points. The last place team, Commish, has four games over 220 in addition to his four games under 180.

Seemingly no one has any interest in emerging as the "team to beat," especially with 3rd and 4th place Idiots/Shotti projected for under 200 points in their current matchup, which has massive bye week implications.

All of this simply means that the playoff race is wide open and the six teams that get in all will have a solid shot at the title, but it remains to be seen if the 2022 Glory Bowl champion will "deserve" it.

## Matchup Recap

* Duck Punchers, exactly a year removed from his first loss ever against the defending champion, builds on his staggering win% against The Stupid Idiots (8-1). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Pain Train takes care of business in his annual grudge match against Paddock 9 (13-7). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Ma ma momma said beats up on a pregnant woman and sweeps Sweet Dee (11-6). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* Papa's Posse keeps pace for a playoff berth and earns a season-split against RIPDab (10-11). **Next Matchup: N/A**
* The Shotti Bunch narrowly escapes to keep bye aspirations alive against a disappointed Multiverse of Mattness (12-7). **Next Matchup: N/A**

## Stat Chat

* This is the first time there have been six 6-5 teams in a single season. It's also the latest in the season that there have been six teams with the same record.
* Sweet Dee becomes the fifth and fastest team to reach 90 combined losses.
* Ma ma momma said becomes the fifth team to reach 80 regular season wins.
* Mattness becomes the fourth team to reach 80 regular season losses.
* Pain Train is in a bye spot through 11 weeks despite going the first ten weeks without back-to-back wins. They have won two straight now and are projected for a third straight victory in week 12.
* Papa's Posse has now won two straight games threedifferent times, but has not managed a third straight victory in 2022.
* RIPDab has now lost five games or more in each season since their Glory Bowl loss in 2017.
* Sweet Dee becomes the first team to lose 20 double-headers (6-20).
* Paddock 9 becomes the 7th team to break 200 points in 90 combined games.
* Duck Punchers becomes the first team to win 8 or more games in seven seasons.

## Seasons of 8 or More Wins by Each Team

Seasons of 8 or more Wins by Each Team
 The Shotti Bunch
 RIPDab
 Pain Train
 Mattness
 ma ma momma said
 Papa's Posse
 Paddock 9
 Sweet Dee
 The Stupid Idiots

## Playoffs??

The three bottom-feeders failed to capitalize on a down week for the league, with Dee, P9, and Commish all taking gut-wrenching losses in week 11. There is still hope for all three but it involves a lot of winning on their part and losing on other people's parts.

The key matchups this week will be the battle of the 6-5s, with momma vs. Pain Train and Shotti vs. Idiots. Barring the first ties in LOC history, the losers of those games will be 6-6. This means, at minimum, the 6th and 7th seeds in the league will be 6-6.

That opens the door for Sweet Dee and Paddock 9, but only a crack. They would need to finish the season at least 2-1, if not 3-0, and hope the 6-6 teams both lose out. They would also need to outscore those teams over December.

In the event that there is a third 6-6 team, or a fourth, this task becomes a little easier. P9 & SD would just need two of those four teams to go 0-2 in their last two games.

The road is harder for Commish. He needs to win out and finish 6-8. With a scoring advantage over half the league, it's the wins that will kill him. By beating Papa this week, he creates a third 6-6 team with two to play. If Sweet Dee pulls the Thanksgiving Weekend Upset by taking out RIPDab, we will have four 6-6 teams. If two or three go 0-2 over their last pair of games, Mattness could realistically jump four-five spots. But "realistic" is a big ask. Not only does Mattness have zero margin for error, but it asks that multiple teams suffer huge collapses.

At the top of the standings, we have the opposite scenario taking place. Six teams are tied for the #2 seed and they almost all control their own destiny. By going 3-0 from weeks 12-14, there is a solid chance you have earned a bye. The following 6-5 teams play each other over the next three weeks:

* momma vs. Pain Train (12)
* Shotti vs. Idiots (12)
* momma vs. Dab (13)
* Papa vs. Pain Train (13)
* Shotti vs. Dab (14)

Nobody has more power right now than momma. By beating Pain Train this week they would jump two spots into 3rd place. With Duck Punchers and Pain Train on a collison course for a behemoth week 14 showdown, momma could clear his own path to snag a bye or even steal the Commissioner's Cup.

## Above and Below

RIPDab has now failed to meet projection 23 times over the last 27 weeks as he heads into a must-win game against his wife. Failure to capitalize on this easy matchup could put him in serious danger of missing the playoffs after starting 6-3.

## Absolute Standings

Every team is within one win of their absolute record, essentially meaning that we've all been relatively rewarded/punished for our performances this season.

### Fractional Records

A few weeks ago Nate came up with a unique alternative method for standings that dives deeper than absolute records. The magic formula is to let matchups still carry weight, but to leave the door open for your individual scoring performance to matter more than as a tie-breaker.

What if standings were similar to what they have in the NHL, where you get points for a victory or for an OT loss? In this scenario, you get 10 points for each win. Then, you get points depending on how you scored compared to the other nine teams. The top scoring team gets another 10 points. The second-highest gets 9. The lowest scoring team gets 1.

An example of this is in week 11: Sweet Dee lost her matchup but was the 3rd-highest scoring team of the week. She would be rewarded 8 points. Momma, who won and was the 2nd-highest scoring team, would get 19 points (10 for the win, 9 for the score). Shotti won, but was the 3rd-LOWEST scoring team. He would be rewarded with 13 points (10 for the win, 3 for his score).

I ran the numbers and some interesting patterns emerged. Almost every top-scoring team one week followed up their performance with a low score the next. Idiots went 1st, 10th in scoring weeks 1-2. Momma went 1st, 10th, 8th in weeks 7-9. Mattness went 1st, 7th in weeks 6-7.

Additionally, you could almost always track when a top score was coming. For example, Jared's top score in week 7 was preceded by 8th, 6th, and 2nd best in the three weeks before. Pain Train's current hot streak of 1st and 1st was preceded by 10th, 8th, 4th place scoring in the weeks before.

Add this up through the course of the season, and what do you get? You get the charts below...

The most drastic changes are Mattness, who would sit in 5th instead of 10th, and Dab, who would be in 8th instead of 6th. The top-four, though shuffled a bit, would be roughly the same. This also closely mirrors the rankings for total points scored (though not exactly).

Now we add in the W/L records, with a win being worth an added 10 points.

It would seem from the above that W/L still holds a ton of weight, with the added points from the scoring not being enough to influence the standings outside of 8th and 9th place P9/Dee, though we still have three games left.

I ran the same chart but with wins only worth 5 and this is what we get:

I guess we'll see how the rest of the season plays out but it certainly seems like no matter how you slice it, everyone is where they should be through 11 weeks unless we went by straight up points scored a la Headhunters.

## Power Rankings-Week 12

This week we break down whether teams need to KEEP THE GOOD TIMES ROLLING or NEEDS TO GET IT TOGETHER.

### 1(1). Duck Punchers

Keep the Good Times Rolling: After four straight games over 200, Duck dipped slightly to 192 in week 11 but had his two star RBs on the bye. This week, facing 9th place Paddock 9, Duck will look to put the finishing touches on another solid regular season and officially lock the first playoff spot.

### 2(3). Pain Train

Keep the Good Times Rolling: Score has increased every week in increments of at least 20 points since their 126 point embarrassment in week 6. It is unlikely they surpass the height of last week's masterclass vs. Paddock 9 in week 11, but even if they drop back down by 50 points it'll put them in the 230 range. Once upon a time, Pain Train was thinking about tanking the season. But the return of Allen, the reemergence of Taylor, and the continued success of Davante Adams, has Pain Train right in the hunt.

### 3(2). The Stupid Idiots

Needs to Get it Together: Last week Idiots was the hottest guy in town. But his total has declined each of the last three weeks and culminated in a loss right when it looked like he was set to overtake the league. The catalyst to his success? Justin Fields, who won't be suiting up today for the Bears. Locked into another huge matchup with Shotti, Idiots currently does not have an active QB on his roster. UPDATE: Trevor Lawrence. Fun times.

### 4(4). The Shotti Bunch

Needs to Get it Together: Some teams are blessed by the schedule, and that's been the case for Shotti in 2022. He has faced the fewest points against this year and was the recipient of Commish's two lowest-scoring performances. The two wins against Commish are the difference between playing for a shot at the bye and being down in 7th place.

### 5(5). Papa's Posse

Keep the Good Times Rolling: Any other team and I'd be telling them to get it together. But scoring doesn't seem to really matter with Papa. There is some sort of strange Papa Magic involved with this team. He's 4-1 over his last five games even though he hasn't broken 200 points since Halloween. He's due this week against his son.

### 6(7). ma ma momma said

Needs to Get it Together: Momma has only beaten one team in a playoff position, even though he's 6-5. The next two weeks will be a big test against fellow 6-5 teams, culminating in a grudge match vs. Mattness for what will inevitably be another bubble showdown. He'll get a much-needed boost to Tyler Boyd now that Chase is out.

### 7(6). RIPDab

Needs to Get it Together: Got a new phone on Black Friday and it doesn't work, leaving him out to dry right before kickoff in a must-win matchup. He's dropped two straight games against non-playoff teams and is close to making it a third. Injuries have really hurt this team right after the trade deadline, terrible timing.

### 8(8). Sweet Dee

Needs to Get it Together: After starting 3-1, Dee has gone 1-6. Rinse, wash, repeat.

### 9(9). Multiverse of Mattness

Keep the Good Times Rolling: Everything is fine. I'm not worried.

### 10(10). Paddock 9

Keep the Good Times Rolling: Four of their last five games they have broken 200 points. But they've gone just 2-3. It seems like P9 has been on the brink of a win streak since the end of September, but it just hasn't come to fruition. Still, if they can manage 3-0 to finish the year they are guaranteed a playoff berth. Nuts.

## Matchup of the week

Shotti vs. Idiots carries a ton of weight. Even though they both look like they're going to stink up the joint.