recursal/Fanatic-Fandom huggingface dataset:
Atlantic/2015/02L/Archive/14

## Public advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...WELL-ORGANIZED BUT WEAKENING CENTER OF BILL PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

SUMMARY OF 4:00 PM CDT...21:00 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION... 35.5N 94.6W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF FORT SMITH, ARKANSAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 KT...20 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 KT...11 MPH...17 KM/H

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 4:00 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Bill was located at 35.5N, 94.6W, or about 15 miles (25 kilometers) northwest of Fort Smith, Arkansas. Maximum sustained winds were 15 knots (20 mph, 30 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1004 millibars (hPa; 29.65 inHg), and the system was moving east-northeast at 9 knots (11 mph, 17 km/h).

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.

$$

Forecaster TAWX14

## Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER

4:00 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

I sound like a broken record at this point, but Bill continues to maintain a well-defined and closed low-level circulation as documented by the numerous mesonet stations across Oklahoma. However, surface observations from these sites indicate that Bill is gradually winding down, with maximum sustained winds near 20 mph and a minimum barometric pressure up to 1004 mb. Although convection persists near the center, it is weaker than what we have witnessed the past two days. All of this means that the cyclone is steadily losing its tropical characteristics. The updated forecast is largely unchanged from the previous in terms of track, but it indicates a quicker post-tropical transition. Regardless of designation, Bill is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the Central Plains into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic over the coming days.

INIT 18/2100Z 35.5N 94.6W 15 KT 20 MPH

12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 93.9W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

24H 19/1800Z 36.5N 92.1W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

36H 20/0600Z 37.3N 89.3W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H 20/1800Z 38.5N 85.9W 10 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

72H 21/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

Forecaster TAWX14
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/13

Dorian continues across the northeastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon. After looking pretty ragged this afternoon, the convective pattern has regained some symmetry, although the center is located on the southern edge of this thunderstorm activity according to recon. That same reconnaissance plane measured a central pressure of 1005mb, a slight decrease from earlier. Flight-level and surface winds continue to support an initial intensity of 45kt for this advisory.
After reforming north and jogging north-northwest, Dorian has regained its expected west-northwest motion this evening. A west-northwest to northwest track is expected over the next 3 days as mid-level ridging north and east of the Leeward Islands weakens, and as a mid-level trough near the Turks and Caicos Islands asserts its influence. This trajectory should bring Dorian across central Puerto Rico about 24 hours from now. By day 3, high pressure is expected to build off the Southeast United States, forcing Dorian toward the west-northwest. The system should be positioned on or near the eastern coast of Florida at the end of the period.
Upper-level outflow associated with Dorian is fantastic, indicative of a light wind shear environment. Some increase in upper-level winds is expected tomorrow, though these values are expected to quickly return to conducive levels after that. Ocean temperatures will remain 28-29C through the forecast period, while 700-500mb relative humidity values increase from the mid 40s to the lower 70s percent. Given the prevalence of dry air around Dorian still, I find it hard to believe significant intensification is likely in the short term. To be on the safe side, though, I have elected to show slight development within the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected as Dorian moves across Puerto Rico. Beyond that time, conditions are more than favorable for strengthening. There has been a dramatic increase in the forecast strength of Dorian across all model guidance this afternoon, with the GFS, GFS legacy, ECMWF, HWRF, and others indicating a powerful hurricane near the Bahamas. While I am weary of depicting such a high intensity right now, it seems prudent to sharply up the forecast on days 3 through 5. Further adjustments are likely coming down the line.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH....INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/10

Barry's trend of organization has, at least on infrared satellite imagery, stopped for the moment. The structure that the storm began to assume around the time of the last advisory is mostly unchanged. Deep convection continues to fire near (and over!) the center, with much of the convection still limited to the southeastern side of the storm as a result of the continued northerly shear. Radar velocities are showing peak values near 65kt at 14kft. In combination with two ASCAT-A and B passes showing peak surface winds of 50kt and the similar satellite presentation, Barry's intensity is held at 55 kts.
Barry appears to be tracking slowly to the northwest this morning, more northerly than six hours ago. The storm is expected to continue this northward turn and is likely to make landfall near Marsh Island around the next advisory time or shortly thereafter. It will continue generally north and round a ridge to its east and dissipate around day 5 when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
Barry's outflow continues to expand northward, which, as noted last advisory, indicates that the northerly shear has decreased. Sea surface temperatures will continue to be near 30C up until landfall. With the expansion of convection over the center, Barry will have less trouble with dry air. Overall, the environment has improved and is finally more conducive to strengthening, although the storm has taken little advantage of this thus far. Barry will have the potential to strengthen up until landfall and land interaction may even result in some frictional tightening which could enhance wind speeds. At this point, only little more than six hours to twelve hours at the most are left for strengthening, but recon finding hurricane strength winds in their next flight cannot be ruled out. Beyond this, landfall will take its toll and the 12h forecast point once again does not show a hurricane. The forecast reasoning from the past advisory remains in tact. Weakening will be slow at first over Louisiana, but weakening will increase beyond that. Dissipation is currently forecast for day 5, but it may occur as early as day 4.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...LANDFALL
24H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/14

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 14

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5;00 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This is likely to be Beryl's final advisory as a (sub)tropical cyclone. It has been without convection cooler than -50C since 17z, and the low-level circulation is becoming less symmetrical under the effects of 25-30kt of wind shear. Dry air has completely wrapped around the circulation, and it is headed into cooler waters over the next few hours. Degeneration is thus expected within the next few hours, and total dissipation is expected in two days while the remnants are near Newfoundland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 16/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 16/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 17/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/3

Humberto remains a rather odd looking tropical cyclone this morning as a result of southwesterly shear from a rather robust upper-level low of the Gulf of Mexico, with deep convection displaced in a partial ring about 30 miles from the exposed center of circulation. The central vortex has been gyrating east of Great Abaco over the last several hours in an attempt to intercept the convection. Based on aircraft reconnaissance data, the current intensity has been raised slightly to 40kt.
As a result of the aforementioned upper-level low, Humberto has had a pretty rough time organizing near the Bahamas. However, this feature is expected to continue onwards to the western Gulf, leaving the upper-level anticyclone over the Sargasso Sea to fill the void. This should result in a decrease in wind shear to more favorable values and allow for intensification over the very warm waters of the Bahamas. Ocean temperatures remain warm throughout the expected path, and as discussed previously an approaching upper-trough currently over the Rockies is expected to create exceptional divergence over Humberto, promoting intensification in latter half of the forecast. A major hurricane continues to be depicted, at which point the system is expected to be near Bermuda.
In the short-term, low-level ridging across the Southeastern United States is keeping Humberto on a west-northwesterly path. However, a weakeness is expected to develop within this ridge at the coast due to a digging shortwave trough in approximately a day's time. As this trough continues to dig, it should eventually catch Humberto within its flow envelope and draw it on an accelerated track towards the northeast after two days.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
Atlantic/2019/11L/Archive/4

Imelda continues to dump rain over localized parts of Texas this morning. Deep convection remains organized near the centre, thus continuing to meet the requirements for a weak tropical cyclone. Surface observations show that the winds have continued to fallen, to the point where Imelda is now basically just a rain event. Motion continues to be slowly towards the north over Texas. The depression is expected to lose tropical characteristics over the day, with dissipation likely by day 3 over the continental US.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 19/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/06L/Archive/11

Erin remains a tropical depression this morning, though in the past few hours the only new deep convection in the storm's proximity appears to be related to the front, which is now nearly on top of the system. The front is expected to continue to elongate Erin's circulation center as it merges into it, resulting in extratropical transition for the depression. Erin is accelerating northeastward as it is picked up by the front and upper-level trough, on course for Nova Scotia tonight or early tomorrow. The extratropical system Erin becomes should dissipate tomorrow, not longer afterward.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/3

Karen is very poorly organized, with a broad and loose low-level circulation well displaced from messy convective activity. The cyclone is experiencing strong upper-level winds, and this shear may only increase over the next 24 hours. Thus, degeneration continues to look likely as Karen traverses the eastern Caribbean Sea. Once the cyclone emerges into the southwestern Atlantic, it should become better positioned with an upper-level anticyclone. This may present the opportunity for intensification as indicated by the ECMWF and HWRF. An alternate scenario is that Karen is too severely disrupted to reorganize in a few days like indicated by the GFS. For now, the updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.
Recon fixes indicate Karen is bouncing around erratically this evening. The long-term motion should be to the west-northwest, with a curve due north expected after tomorrow. This should bring Karen or its remnants across the island of Puerto Rico about 48 hours from now. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone should slow down and begin to curve toward the west as expansive high pressure builds over the Southeast United States.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/5

Although its convection is not particularly deep and well-aligned with the center of circulation, Chantal has maintained a cohesive area of showers and thunderstorms east of its center of circulation throughout the evening and early night hours. The low-level circulation remains well-defined and clearly evident but is nonetheless displaced given wind shear estimated at around 20 kt per present analyses. A current intensity of 30 kt was estimated by both TAFB and SAB. This is in good agreement with a 2354z ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of such winds in the southwestern quadrant, which has been the dominant sector recently. Thus, Chantal remains a 30 kt tropical depression this advisory.
The tropical depression continues hurriedly eastward tonight but is in the process of losing some latitude as it rounds the periphery of the Azores-Bermuda ridge. An incoming trough is expected to pick up Chantal and cause it to rotate towards the north after about 2-3 days before its eventual absorption with the associated frontal system in 4-5 days. Conditions all the while should continue to be largely unsupportive of any intensification, but there is a small window of opportunity in approximately 36 hours when wind shear is expected to null momentarily before increasing again. Some intensification is possible within this window given the cold upper-air environment, but is unlikely given the otherwise unfavorably dry atmosphere. Rather shallow barometrically, the system should degenerate into a remnant low before dissipating entirely.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/06L/Archive/4

The convective appearance of TD Six has improved since yesterday, and for a time deep convection was focused close to the low-level circulation. Over the past few hours, this center has emerged and is once again exposed north of the convective activity. I contemplated upgrading the depression to a tropical storm given its general improvement since yesterday, but the lack of scatterometer data combined with an average of satellite intensity estimates continues to yield an initial intensity of 30kt.
The depression continues to be strongly sheared, and this shear is helping to inject dry continental air from the United States into the circulation. While upper-level winds should decrease some, the environment is not expected to become completely favorable for strengthening, and the current structure of the system does not support that solution either. I have moved extratropical transition up to 72 hours, with dissipation still expected around day 5.
The system has drifted southward this morning. Steering currents remain weak and so erratic motion is expected to continue today. By tomorrow, though, an approaching upper-level trough should cause the depression to accelerate northeast toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/6

Barry's satellite presentation remains much the same as it has throughout the course of yesterday. The storm consists of a broad circulation with several mesovortices and deep convection situated primarily in the southern semicircle, well removed from the center of circulation under the influence of strong northerly shear. No new aircraft reconnaissance data has come in, Dvorak estimates at 06z remain low, and an ASCAT-C pass from about 6 hours ago shows only a small area of gales. With the minimal change in satellite presentation and storm structure, the intensity is held at 45 kts.
Barry continues to move in a general westward direction slowly. The storm should generally continue in that direction today but by about 18 hours it should be moving on a more northwesterly track, turning north as the influence of the mid-level ridge centered over NM/CO wanes and the storm is steered more strongly by the ridge sitting to its east near The Bahamas. The eastern track guidance has Barry moving inland as early as 24 hours from now near Terrebonne Bay, while the western guidance near Marsh Island would suggest landfall closer to 36 hours.
Regardless of track, Barry continues to struggle with northerly shear. Due to the placement of an upper-level ridge, this shear is not really expected to let up before landfall, which will keep Barry struggling to organize. Sea surface temperatures on the other hand will provide for instability as they are near 30C. The intensity of Barry will depend on how well it can organize in the face of the vertical wind shear. Based on the slow but steady strengthening trend thus far, the storm would be approaching hurricane intensity around landfall, but given the issues with shear that the system is expected to have, the storm will likely have trouble consolidating a convective core which would allow the storm to reach category 1 intensity. Therefore, the intensity forecast remains basically the same as the last advisory, with the caveat that the 36h intensity may be lower as Barry may already be moving inland and it will be struggling to attain hurricane strength.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 60 KT 65 MPH...AT LANDFALL/INLAND
48H 14/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Grand Theft Auto

Number of questions:

***This page is up-to-date as of 13/06/2015.***

 Grand Theft Auto is a video game series published by Rockstar Games, and lead development primarily by Rockstar North.

## Titles

* Level 5: Cluckin' Bell Employee
* Level 10: Citizen Yelling at Phones
* Level 15: Jazz Mags Patron
* Level 20: 8-Ball
* Level 25: Uptown Yardie
* Level 30: NOT a Hipster
* Level 40: Love Fist Fan
* Level 50: GOURANGA
* Level 60: Z-Man (?)
* Level 70: Trailer Park Mafioso (?)
* Level 80: La Vaca Loca (?)
* Level 90: Boomshine Drinker (?)
* Level 100: Champion of Grand Theft Auto (?)

## Questions

IMPORTANT: The questions are in alphabetical order, but in order to facilitate research, you may use the find function on your web browser (CTRL+F) to quickly find the question you desire.
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/13

Barry has continued to move inland across Louisiana, weakening as it do so. Surface observations across the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate that the storm is producing maximum sustained winds of 45kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory. The center passed almost directly over a weather station in DeRidder, and it recorded a minimum pressure around 1002mb.
The tropical storm will continue to steadily weaken as it moves deeper into the United States, and degeneration into a remnant low is expected about 36 hours from now. Barry should move north-northwest until that time, steered into a weakness by a mid-level ridge to its north. Following dissipation in 4 days, the remnants of the storm should be swept north-northeast and into the mid-latitude westerlies.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2018/04L/Archive/9

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 9 2018

Debby has managed to be quite resiient this morning with its convective activity, and despite being sheared, has managed to tow a new area of -55°C to -65°C convection close to its south, though the low-level center of circulation remains largely exposed. SAB continued to estimate a T2.5/35kt current intensity, though an ASCAT scatterometer pass from 1231Z showed a rather larger than expected area of gale-force winds, so once again the intensity for Debby has been set once again at 40 kt. I hope my forecasting colleague is not annoyed by these developments.

This morning's convection draws out the clock for a transition into a remnant low for longer, but Debby's fate as a tropical cyclone is still sealed at this point as it tracks northeast around a larger extratropical cyclone. Interestingly, Debby has proved resilient enough for model guidance to keep Debby around as an extratropical cyclone, and in fact, some models allow Debby to grow baroclinically and absorb the extratropical cyclone currently steering Debby. I'm not sure how valid this specific scenario is, but with respect for good consensus on system maintenance I've extended dissipation out to 36 hours instead of 12-24 hours.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/1500Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 10/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 10/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/3

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Thu Jul 5 2018

Beryl is creating headaches this afternoon. The eye evident on visible imagery has maintained itself for the past few hours, and this feature has been making intermittent appearances on infrared channels. A satellite estimate of T3.0/45kt from SAB was used to upgrade the storm in a special discussion at 17:45Z, and that is the intensity maintained for this advisory. However, in the absence of reconnaissance aircraft or ASCAT, this estimate is of very low confidence.

Beryl has been moving generally west over the past few hours. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow, and that trajectory should continue for the remainder of the period as the storm is steered by expansive mid-level ridging to its north. Such a track should take Beryl toward the Leeward Islands by late Sunday into Monday.

As noted this morning, small storms have a tendency to rapidly intensify and rapidly dissipate. Beryl is a small but well organized storm in an environment with conflicting signals with regard to its favorability, making this one of the hardest intensity forecasts a meteorologist has to contend with. Wind shear is light, the byproduct of vast anticyclonic flow aloft, and it is expected to remain light for the next 36 hours. With aid from the monsoon trough and a healthy moisture bubble, relative humidity values are currently in the ballmark of 60 percent, where they should remain for the next 24 hours. Ocean temperatures, however, are below 26°C, and are expected to remain marginal for the next few days. Such cool waters would typically negate intensification; however, because of the moist atmospheric column, even shallow convection allows intensification processes to continue, as we have seen during the past 12 hours. The most recent infrared frames show some semblance of dry air wrapping around Beryl, but for now, this is located outside the central dense overcast. Both the SHIPS and LGEM now make Beryl a hurricane around 36 hours from now, a massive disagreement from the global models which barely register the system—this isn't necessarily surprising given how tiny it is. The updated intensity forecast is vastly different from the previous one and now shows Beryl becoming a strong tropical storm tomorrow. Increasing wind shear after 36 hours should cause the storm to degenerate to a strong tropical wave by day 4 despite increasingly warm waters. However, it is still likely to be accompanied by strong winds and precipitation as it moves through the northeastern Leeward Islands, and residents there should be vigilant for changes in the future.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH

36H 07/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 07/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 08/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2018/04L/Archive/2

Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 7 2018

Debby has not changed much structurally during the course of the daytime. The broad subtropical center remains exposed with various cumuliform cloud lines evident around the circulation. Convective activity is limited to a wide band that wraps around the north, west, and into the southern part of Debby's circulation, but has expected from subtropical cyclones the deepest convective activity is located in the northern rainband well away from the center of circulation. There is not much reason to change the winds from 35 kt, and microwave-derived winds from an 1834Z SSMIS pass are in agreement with the estimated intensity.

The upper troposphere has been cold enough to support convective activity in the development of Debby. While these temperatures should remain cold, sea surface temperatures are currently dropping and should continue to drop to inhospitably low values. Thus, Debby should either remain fairly steady in strength as a subtropical system or slowly taper off, with no expected transition into a fully tropical system. Debby is moving north in response a trough with which it is embedded within. Another approaching shortwave trough in roughly two days should steer Debby towards the northeast and elongate the system before absorbing it fully

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 08/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 09/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2018/05L/Archive/5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto made the transition to a tropical storm earlier this morning, with the formation of shallow convection near and over its low-level circulation. An earlier ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 40kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. No change in strength is expected as a tropical cyclone, but some increase in winds is likely after Ernesto becomes an extratropical cyclone, which it's expected to in about 24 hours. This process will occur as the storm moves northeast into waters cooler than 20C and interacts with shear higher than 30kt. Global model guidance continue to keep Ernesto a separate entity from the frontal system that will be impinging from west, suggesting the post-tropical cyclone will dissipate over the United Kingdom in about 3 days.

INIT 16/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 17/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 17/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP

36H 18/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2018/04L/Archive/3

Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 7 2018

There is nothing new to report with Debby tonight. The storm consists of a cloud-free center and a band of moderately intense convection to the south. Satellite intensity estimates were ST2.5/35kt from TAFB and ST2.8/41kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. A 0035z ASCAT pass showed winds near 35kt to the east of the center as well, so the initial intensity is left at that value. No intensification is expected over the next 2 days as Debby progresses over cooler ocean temperatures, with dissipation expected on Thursday as it becomes embedded within an approaching upper-level trough. This trough is currently steering the storm north but should whisk Debby toward the northeast before destroying its circulation. The updated forecast is not appreciably different from the last.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 08/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

24H 09/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

36H 09/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/8

Chantal has changed little in organization since the previous advisory, with deep convection occurring mainly east of the low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data continue to support an initial intensity of 30kt. Wind shear is in the process of falling to conducive levels, and ocean temperatures have risen to marginal levels. However, the mid-level relative humidity environment remains extremely unfavorable. Thus, no intensification is forecast, and Chantal is instead forecast to degenerate to a remnant low about 48 hours from now. Dissipation is expected on day four.
Chantal is moving east-southeast, steered by an intensifying mid-level ridge. This ridge will force the cyclone to execute a curve west and then back north to the west of the Azores over the coming days.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/12

Humberto has deepened today, with its central pressure falling at a rate of roughly 1mb every hour. The 11mb drop since the 11am advisory has not resulted in an increase in maximum winds, however, and in fact reconnaissance data from the past few hours only barely supports an initial intensity of 75kt. The hurricane is well organized on satellite, with a clear eye and deep convection around the center. The Hurricane Hunters found a very broad pressure trace this afternoon, which was one explanation for the large radius of maximum winds but relatively modest intensity in general. A 2152z SSMIS pass showed concentric eyewalls, with deeper returns in the outer eyewall and an open inner eyewall. This makes sense given the stronger flight-level winds well removed from the center, and it too explains why Humberto has not strengthened today. Moving forward, environmental conditions are likely to favor intensification once the inner core restructuring is complete, and Humberto should become a major hurricane by Wednesday morning. After 72 hours, a sharp increase in wind shear should weaken the cyclone; further interaction with the trough responsible for the shear may cause post-tropical transition around day 5.
Humberto has moved almost due east today. An east or east-northeast trajectory should continue for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, the aforementioned upper-level trough should cut-off into a mid-level low, and that low may divert Humberto north or north-northwest. This curve is expected to be temporary, with a general northeasterly track on days 4 and 5. The exception to this solution is the GFS model, which shows Humberto trapped by high pressure over eastern Canada, sending Humberto to the south. This model appears to be an outlier right now.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH
Atlantic/2019/03L/Archive/3

Three has regained some convection since the last advisory, as indicated by infrared satellite imagery, although it remains highly disorganized. Several scatterometer passes from 02-03z, around the time of the last advisory, found only a very small region within the depression with 20kt winds. Given that the system is located near land, these winds may not totally represent the intensity of Three. Nonetheless, given the combination of ragged convection and the unimpressive scatterometer data, Three is held at 25 kt for this advisory.
Three is currently experiencing relatively little wind shear, but this is likely to increase by as soon as 12 hours from now. Sea surface temperatures along the track of Three are warm, ranging from the current values near 30C to more modest 28-29C temperatures. Mid-level moisture is forecast to remain adequate for the system. Overall, the main factor keeping the depression weak is going to be the increasing wind shear and the approach of the front. Some strengthening is possible for the next 12 hours or so, and the depression may even get a name as aircraft reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate later today, but beyond this, conditions are hostile for this system.
The depression is moving generally northward as it rounds a mid-level ridge located to its east. It will begin to turn to the northeast late today as it does so, while it also begins to be picked up by the front, which should completely destroy the system. By about this time tomorrow, Three is likely to have dissipated.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/55

This special advisory will supplant the earlier 15z advisory in lieu of recently-received ASCAT data that supports an initial intensity of 85kt. This increase in winds may be the result of baroclinic processes as Dorian continues its transition to an extratropical cyclone, or it may be suggestive that the cyclone was stronger than even what we assessed yesterday. Regardless, Dorian does not have the appearance of a Category 2 hurricane this afternoon, with an exposed center and all associated convection in the northern semicircle. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete within the next 12 hours. Dissipation is expected in about 3 days when the storm will be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low.
Dorian has taken on more of a north-northeast movement today, but a curve back toward the northeast is expected by tomorrow morning. Dorian should make landfall in Nova Scotia in eight to ten hours as an extratropical cyclone, continuing into the northwestern shoreline of Newfoundland tomorrow morning. The cyclone will continue into the far North Atlantic from there.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/12

Jerry has continued to weaken this evening as a result of strong shear. A very strong and so far persistent burst of convection has redeveloped a strong central dense overcast. A microwave pass from 5 hours ago hinted that the system could be trying to redevelop an eyewall, yet no evidence of that can be yet seen on radar. These early signs hint towards some intensification of the system overnight. An aircraft reconnaissance plane just measured a maximum flight level wind of 62 kt, which supports the 55 kt intensity for this advisory.
It is clear from the systems current convective pattern that the 15 kt mid-level shear is not as damaging as was thought 6 hours ago. An upshear band has developed and seems to be preventing dry air entrainment and giving the system a chance to redevelop an inner core. These sorts of internal dynamics are notoriously hard to predict and at this point I can't come to any conclusion on the short term intensity of the system. It remains to be seen if this will continue and the storm will intensify, or once DMIN hits, the convection will dissipate and we will be left with a sheared mess. However, an upper level anticyclone has developed near the system an the storm is likely to move underneath it helping to improve the conditions for the storms outflow for the next day or two. I have elected to show no weakening during this period, though it is of very low confidence. Following this, shear is once again expected to pick up and induce some weakening. Around day 4, the system is expected enter an area of divergent flow which should help to intensify the system. Global models have pretty much unanimously picked up on this strengthening, so Jerry has the potential to become quite an intense hurricane near Bermuda.
Jerry continues to navigate west-northwestward around the periphery of of the subtropical ridge. A weakness is expected to develop around day 2 or 3 and allow the system to move northwards. Global models hint at a forecast track near Bermuda on day 4, though it is impossible to say this far out what impacts are possible. Increased uncertainty with the track forecast has to do with potential interaction with a potential tropical cyclone to its south.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/1

The area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas has organized into Tropical Storm Humberto. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system this evening found a well-defined and closed low-level circulation. Peak flight-level winds were 41kt, with believable SFMR values around 35kt. Both of these values support an initial intensity of 35kt.
An anomalously strong and very large upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico is imparting moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear atop Humberto in the near term. Beyond 12 to 24 hours from now, upper-level high pressure is expected to expand near Humberto, providing an environment of light wind shear with multiple outflow channels available. Ocean temperatures are expected to remain around 28-29C while mid-level relative humidity values remain near adequate levels. Thus, once wind shear decreases and the storm's circulations become aligned with convective activity, the stage is set for intensification that may be rapid toward the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF all have a storm near major hurricane intensity by day 5, while the LGEM/SHIPS are slightly less bullish. That being said, the latter two models are likely influenced by the large grid size of the SHIPS model which is keying in on higher environmental wind shear that is unlikely to be affecting Humberto in reality. Therefore, the intensity forecast is more weighted toward the hurricane and global guidance.
Humberto is moving toward the northwest today, steered into a weakness around the Southeast United States. The cyclone should begin to curve northward by this time tomorrow, with a sharp recurve toward the east on days 2 through 4 as a mid-latitude trough passes to Humberto's north. An east or east-northeast motion should continue through the remainder of the forecast period, positioning the cyclone in the vicinity of Bermuda by the end of day 5.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH
Atlantic/2018/03L/Archive/10

Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris looks fairly healthy this morning as it tries to build a complete eyewall and distribute deep convection around the system. A wide shield of -50°C to -65°C cloud tops extends across the system's northeastern flanks, with a decently strong banding feature southwest of the center. An eye is also readily apparent in all traditional wavelengths. Some dry air is still seen rotating around the center in the interface between the eyewall and outer rainbands, but this is quickly being siphoned off. A microwave pass at 1134Z showed an intensifying Chris featuring a nearly complete eyewall open to the southwest, and aligning the microwave data with infrared data, it would appear that this eyewall has largely closed off. We do not have new aircraft reconnaissance available for this advisory cycle, but satellite intensity estimates over the past 18 hours have aligned well with reconnaissance data. UW-CIMSS ADT gives T4.1/67kt as a constrained final intensity with higher preliminary estimates. SAB estimated T4.0/65kt while TAFB gave T3.5/55kt. SATCON consensus has increased to 68kt. As Chris is moving away from its upwelled water and placing itself in more supportive waters of 26-27°C, winds reflective of satellite estimates are likely reaching the surface. On this basis, Chris has been upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane.

Chris is now moving northeast as a shortwave trough now over the Atlantic approaches from the northwest. Chris will continue to accelerate towards the northeast, potentially making landfall on Newfoundland as a transitioning system before curving east and being absorbed by a polar extratropical cyclone in about Chris or five days. Until that time, Chris has some warm sea surface temperatures and slightly more moist air to work with in the interim to intensify tropically. Some northerly shear is currently affecting Chris, but the system's tigh tcore at this moment seems to be developing enough to sustain localized radial outflow. Warm waters continue out to about 36 hours before the system leaves the Gulf Stream area and enters hostile conditions where extratropical processes will quickly take over. The intensity forecast has remained largely unchanged, with strengthening to 36 hours followed by gradual tapering off afterwards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 65KT 75MPH

12H 11/0000Z 70KT 80MPH

24H 11/1200Z 80KT 90MPH

36H 12/0000Z 80KT 90MPH

48H 12/1200Z 70KT 80MPH

72H 13/1200Z 60KT 70MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 14/1200Z ... DISSIPATED

120H 15/1200Z ... DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/11L/Archive/1

Yet another tropical cyclone has formed today. An ASCAT pass around 15z showed that the area of low pressure in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico was closed and well-defined. Since that time, convection has expanded and persisted. On radar, the circulation is very compact, with bright reflectivity returns east of the center. Maximum winds in this region have varied around 40-45kt at an elevation of just under 2,500ft. Average reduction supports an initial intensity of 30-35kt. In addition, a weather station positioned just offshore Freeport, Texas, just measured a sustained wind of 43 mph, with a maximum gust of 51 mph. Given these data points, I have elected to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Imelda.
Imelda will make landfall near Freeport, Texas, quite literally in a matter of minutes. Thus, the window for intensification is already closing. As the cyclone moves inland, a slow decay is likely, with degeneration expected about 36 hours from now and dissipation by day 3.
The tropical storm is moving off toward the north, and this trajectory should continue over the coming days as the cyclone remains on the western periphery of mid-level ridging over the Tennessee Valley.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1745Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/13

Gabrielle is stronger this evening. ASCAT passes shortly before 0z showed that maximum sustained winds have increased to 45kt. Those same passes indicated that Gabrielle may be in the middle of a center reformation, with the circulation stretched from its usual exposed location south of the convection into the thunderstorm activity itself. Overall, the associated cloud pattern looks better organized, and it appears that upper-level winds are beginning to increase. This drop should be fairly rapid according to the SHIPS text output, leaving about 72 hours of favorable conditions for Gabrielle to intensify in. There was little change to model guidance this cycle except that LGEM now also forecasts a hurricane. Therefore, the new prediction is similar to the previous one. Weakening should begin after day 3 as Gabrielle quickly moves over frigid ocean temperatures and into an insanely high shear environment.
The cyclone is moving toward the northwest. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours before the approach of an upper-level trough and Hurricane Dorian force the cyclone north and northeast at an increasing pace. Models remain tightly clustered regarding Gabrielle's track forecast.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/01Q/Archive/7

Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 7

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

6:00 AM Mon Mar 25 2019

Iba has become a bit better organized this morning. Just like last night, deep convection has blossomed across the eastern semicircle, with cloudtops cooler than -80C featuring frequent lightning activity. Unlike last night, however, the low-level circulation has actually become embedded within this convection. On one hand, the pair of ASCAT passes around 0z showed a confined area of 30-35kt winds, which would continue to make a 40kt initial intensity most reasonable. On the other, the most recent satellite intensity estimate from SAB has increased to T3.0/45kt. Given that the effects of shear continue to be evident, combined with the uncertainty of whether organization will continue up to the next advisory, I have decided to leave Iba's strength at a now-comfortable 40kt.

Assuming wind shear remains in the ballpark of 10-15kt, some intensification is possible over the next day, as indicated by the GFS. Even the GFS, though, has trended somewhat weaker with Iba's peak intensity, and the ECMWF continues to struggle beyond a weak tropical storm. Given satellite trends this morning and the amount of time left to organize, I have left the peak intensity at 50kt; quick weakening is expected on days three and four. By day five, there are some new indications that Iba may begin to gain strength as a post-tropical entity. There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning. A drift toward the south and then acceleration toward the southeast continues to appear likely through the forecast period.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 25/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 26/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH

36H 26/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 27/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

96H 29/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 30/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/11L/Archive/6

Deep convection has ceased to remain sufficiently organized or near the centre with Imelda, so this is the final advisory. While the surface low is intact, the winds have long since weakened far below that of a regular sea breeze. The remnants will continue to track slowly towards the north before eventually dissipating around day 2 over the continental US.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 15 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/000Z 15 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW