Results

## Winners Stats

* Every Season winner has won at least 2 main challenges.
* Every Season winner, except four, were the 1st of their season to win 2 or more main challenges.
* With the exception of Abbi & Merissa, every season winner won their 1st main challenge within the 1st 3 weeks of competition.
* No season winner has placed in the bottom 2 more than once.
* With the exception of Hannah, no season winner who has placed in the bottom 2 did so until at least the 8th week of competition.
* With the exception of Kimberly, every season winner has won at least one mini challenge.
* With the exception of Abbi, no season winner has won the role of Team Captain.

## Runners-Up Stats

* With the exception of Jorge, Melanie, and Toni Alvarado all runner-ups won their first main challenge within the 1st 3 weeks of competition.
* With the exception of Bella & Claire, all runner-ups did not place in the Bottom 2 more than two times.
* With the exception of Melanie, most runner-ups who placed in the Bottom 2 did not do so until at least the 6th week of competition.
* With the exception of Melanie, most runner-ups did not win more than 3 mini-challenges.
* With the exception of 3 contestants, most runner-ups were never team captains.
* With the exception of Toni Alvarado, all runner-ups won more than one challenge.

## Placing in the Bottom Two

Oddly, to place as a top 3 finalist, a contestant has a better chance if they have 0 to 1 bottom two placings, yet to win the competition, a contestant has a better chance if they have only one bottom 2 placing. No contestant has ever won the entire season with more than one bottom 2 placing.

### **Never Placing in the Bottom 2**

Historically, every contestant to have never once placed in the bottom 2 on any episode has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Kimberly & Valerie of Season 2, Ceaser & Alyssa of Season 3, Kayli of Season 5 & Merissa of Season 6 have all accomplished this feat, with Kimberly, Ceaser, Kayli, and Merissa to be the only Season Winners to have done so. Never placing in the bottom 2 guarantee's a contestant a spot in the top 3. Based on this statistic alone, a contestant with zero Bottom 2 placings has a 3/7 chance of winning the crown, and a 1/7 chance of placing into the Top 3 without winning the title.

### **Placing Once in the Bottom 2**

Aside from Kimberly, Ceaser, Kayli, and Merissa who won their seasons without ever once placing in the Bottom 2 during any episode, every other Season Winner has placed in the Bottom 2 at least once. Although it is possible to win the competition with one Bottom 2 placing, or even place as a Top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, no contestant has ever won the competition with 2 or more bottom 2 placings. Any contestant to have placed in the Bottom 2 two or more times has an a 0% chance of winning the season. Oddly, placing in the Bottom 2 only once gives a contestant a 4/7 chance of winning the season, which is a greater chance of winning than not ever placing in the Bottom 2 at all, which gives a contestant a 3/7 chance of winning the crown.

### **Placing Twice in the Bottom 2**

Molly of Season 3, Yen of Season 3 (New), Abby & Melanie of Season 5, Danielle of Season 6 are the only contestants to place in the top 3 with two Bottom 2 placings each. The chances of a contestant placing in the Top 3 with only two Bottom 2 placings are 4/21. Although it is possible to place as a top 3 finalist with two Bottom 2 placings, the chances of winning the competition are zero.

### **Placing 3 Times in the Bottom 2**

Bella of Season 1, & Claire of Season 2 are the only two contestants ever to place in the top 3 with a total of three bottom 2 placings each. Both contestants ranked 3rd in the competition. Having three bottom 2 placings makes the chances of placing in the top 3 very slim with a 2/21 chance, while putting the chances of winning the season at 0%.

## Winning Main Challenges

Statistically, in order to win the entire season, a contestant must win at least 2 main challenges. Winning the most main challenges over every other contestant also currently guarantees that a contestant will win the entire season.

### **Winning the 1st Main Challenge**

With the exception of Mariah of Season 4, every contestant who's won the very first main challenge of their season has gone on to place in the top 3. Season winners Kimberly, Ceaser, Kayli, all won the first main challenges of their season (Ceaser being the first winner on the first episode he appeared on). Based on this statistic alone, a contestant who has won the first main challenge of their season has a strong chance of winning the season with a 3/8 chance of winning the competition and a 5/8 chance of at least placing in the top 3.

### **Winning 1 Main Challenge**

With the exception of Toni Alvarado, every top 3 finalist has won at least 2 main challenges. Winning only one Main Challenge means a contestant has a 2/21 chance of placing as a finalist and a 0% chance of winning the crown.

### **Winning 2 Main Challenges**

Every single Season winner in The Race history so far has won at least 2 Main Challenges, (Kimberly, Ceaser, Kayli, and Merissa have each won 3, while Malia has won 4) meaning that in order to win the entire season, a contestant statistically needs to have won at least 2 main challenges.

With the exception of Joe of Season 1, Yen of Season 3, Caitlin of Season 3 (New), Abby J. of Season 4, Litzy of Season 5, Grant, and Haley of Season 6, most contestants who've won 2 main challenges have gone to place in the top 3, making a 3/8 chance what a queen with two Main Challenge wins wil make the Top 3. Every top 3 finalist afterwards has won at least 2 main challenges. Out of six Season Winners, one have won with only two Main Challenge wins, making it a 3/7 chance that the winner will have had only 2 Main Challenge wins.

### **Winning 3 Main Challenges**

So far, every single contestant who has won 3 main challenges has gone on to place as a top 3 finalist. Out of all seven Season Winners so far, four of them where crowned after winning three Main Challenges (Kimberly, Ceaser, Kayli & Merissa). Malia is the only contestant and Season winner to have won more than three with four main challenge wins. Due to these statistics, any contestant who's won 3 main challenges is guaranteed a spot in the top 3, and has a 1/2 chance of winning.