Point of Divergence

**The Divergence**

On November 21st of 1916 Karl I ascended to the Imperial throne of Austria-Hungary following the death of his grand-uncle Franz Joseph I. The young emperor desired peace and was more willing than his predecessor to act without German approval. Two of Karl’s brothers-in-law served as officers in the Belgian army. They would provide the means of communication to Entente leadership.

On January 29th, 1917, The emperor’s mother-in-law, Maria Antonia Duchess of Bourbon-Parma met with her sons Sixtus and Xavier in the Swiss town of Neuchatel. She delivered to them a letter from Emperor Karl. The princes opened negotiations by relaying messages to French President Raymond Poincare, Prime Minister Aristide Briand, King George V of England, and the British Prime Minister David Lloyd George.

The initial minimum Entente demands included, the restoration of Alsace-Lorraine to France, Belgian independence, Serbian independence, and the cession of Constantinople to Russia. On March 23-24th, 1917, Prince Sixtus met personally with the Emperor and the Austrian Prime Minister, Otto Graf Czernin, just outside Vienna. Karl agreed to support the Entente’s conditions and pressure Germany to return Alsace-Lorraine to France. However, upon returning, Sixtus found that matters had changed.

A few days before the meeting had taken place, the French Prime Minister, Aristide Briand had resigned in protest over the impending combined French and British offensive planned by the French Commander in Chief, Robert Nivelle. Briand’s replacement, Alexandre Ribot refused to listen to peace overtures on the eve of a grand offensive, and went so far as to refer to them as a trap. In addition, the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sidney Constantino Sinnino had insisted upon adding Italy’s demands to the peace negotiations. Italy demanded half of Dalmatia, South Tyrol, and parts of Istria including the vital port of Trieste.

On April 4th, unaware of the difficulties now arisen on the Entente side, Emperor Karl I informed Kaiser Wilhelm II that he had opened negotiations with the French and the British.

At the beginning of April the Nivelle offensive launched, resulting in minor tactical victories. However, by the end of the month the offensive had stalled, and was called off. Initial projections had anticipated 10,000 casualties for the offensive. The actual number approached 200,000. The loss of tanks and material was also great. The Nivelle offensive gained nothing, exhausted the French army, and resulted in a series of mutinies with French troops refusing orders to attack. General Nivelle was immediately sacked and replaced by Phillipe Petain.

On May 8th, following the failure of the Nivelle offensive, Sixtus met once again with Emperor Karl I. The Emperor agreed to cede Trentino and the Italian speaking regions of Tyrol to Italy. Sixtus returned to an unreceptive Prime Minister Ribot and it appeared as though the negotiations may fail. News of the initiative leaked, however, to a wider circle of French leadership resulting in a firestorm of criticism. Ribot was already unpopular due to the disaster of the Nivelle Offensive and the subsequent mutinies. On May 15th he resigned and was replaced by Paul Painleve.

Unknown to the Italian Foreign Minister, King Victor Emmanuel III, had already ordered the Italian Marshall Luigi Cadorna to communicate to the Austrians that Italy would reduce its territorial demands, but still demanded south Tyrol. With the roadblock of Ribot removed, and news of the Italian agreement, the negotiations moved forward.

In Germany, Kaiser Wilhelm was initially incensed at the news of the Austrians secretly beginning a dialogue with the Entente. The Kaiserin and the Crown Prince Wilhelm, however, supported the idea of peace. It had become clear that the Supreme Army Command (OHL) had effectively taken control of the state, pushing the Kaiser to the side. Even if the Kaiser supported engaging with the peace negotiations, the question remained whether he could wrest control of the country back from the military.

The Crown Prince who, at least in name, commanded an Army Group, organized support among the officer corps, particularly with Crown Prince Rupprecht of Bavaria and Albrecht, Duke of Wurttemberg, who each likewise commanded an Army Group. The German Chancellor Bethman Hollweg could also be counted on to support the peace initiative.

Supreme Commander Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg and General Erich von Ludendorff came to Berlin in an unsuccessful attempt to block the move. The Kaiser curtly informed them that they did not belong in Berlin and doubtless would find ample duties to keep them busy at army headquarters. Following the Reichstag vote, they returned to OHL. Ludendorff proposed that they ought to simply depose the Kaiser and the Chancellor and replace them with a military dictator. Hindenburg, while disgusted with the peace initiative, balked at overthrowing the Kaiser. While Hindenburg vacillated, Ludendorff acted. He dispatched Colonel Max Bauer to Berlin, backed by reliable troops, to arrest the Kaiser and the Chancellor.

Colonel Bauer and his troops were blocked by forces loyal to the Kaiser and fighting soon erupted in the capital. When news of the coup attempt spread, it sent shockwaves through the army. Many of the war weary soldiers were buoyed by the prospect of peace on the horizon. When news of the coup attempt spread, some units were on the verge of mutiny. Officers loyal to the Kaiser prepared to move against Ludendorff. The ensuing chaos threatened to destabilize the front. Though shocked by the news, Hindenburg was forced to act quickly to preserve the operational integrity of the army. He arrested Ludendorff and restored order.

Kaiser Wilhelm initially wanted to dismiss Hindenburg, but was convinced to retain him in order to keep the army in fighting order.

The terms of the subsequent armistice required German occupying troops to be removed from France, Belgium, and Luxemburg within fifteen days. The Germans only agreed to this condition in exchange for the British lifting the naval blockade of Germany. Regardless of withdrawals, the army needed to be ready if the peace negotiations should turn too sour for the Germans. Only the army could give them leverage, and the ability to walk away from the table.

The Armistice went into effect on September 1st of 1917. The subsequent peace conference was held in Brussels beginning on December 1st 1917.