recursal/Fanatic-Fandom huggingface dataset:
Atlantic/2019/13L/Archive/21

History is unfolding tonight. Lorenzo has undergone a completely unexpected and explosive round of intensification this evening. A wide ring of -70C convection now encircles a large and warm eye. Convection near -80C wraps over halfway around the center too. Normal satellite classification at 0z was T5.5/102kt from SAB. However, given the rapid structural changes witnessed since that time, the agency issued a special 01:30z classification assigning T7.0/140kt. This matches the most recent value from UW-CIMSS ADT, although adjusted and raw estimates from there are even higher. Thus, I have high confidence, even in the absence of reconnaissance data, in upgrading Lorenzo to a Category 5 hurricane tonight. At 45W, it is by far the easternmost Category 5 hurricane on record, surpassing the previous record of 54.6W by Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
Water vapor imagery shows that upper-level outflow is beginning to expand to the southwest as a cut-off low nears the Leeward Islands. However, mid-level flow continues to impinge on the hurricane from the southwest, although clearly not to the detriment of Lorenzo this evening. Over the next day, two things are expected to happen. One, the hurricane should turn toward the northeast, meaning the shear vector should become largely parallel to the storm's movement. Second, wind shear is general should slacken somewhat. Ocean temperatures are increasing to around 28C, while mid-level relative humidity values are inching up to the mid-60s percent. Normally, this would present opportunity for further intensification over the short term. However, Lorenzo has already surpassed what we considered to be the theoretical maximum potential intensity. Although Lorenzo has put on a show tonight, I feel most comfortable asserting that the hurricane is finally at its peak strength. The storm should remain very powerful over the next 48 hours before weakening thereafter, transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone by the end of day four.
Lorenzo is deviating to the right of due north this evening. A gradual curve toward the north-northeast and then northeast should occur over the coming days as the hurricane rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge and begins to interact with mid-latitude westerlies. On this track, Lorenzo is expected to pass dangerously close to the Azores about four days from now, where significant impacts are expected regardless of whether the storm is tropical or not.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/9

An Air Force reconnaissance plane has been investigating Dorian this evening, providing a valuable look into the storm's intensity that has been lacking between microwave and satellite intensity estimates. The plane found that the cyclone is not as intense as previously expected, with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial intensity around 45kt as opposed to 55kt. The minimum pressure is also positioned around 1003mb compared to previous estimates of 999mb.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain generally light throughout the period, with only a temporary and slight increase in shear over the eastern Caribbean. Ocean temperatures should remain more than sufficient along the forecast path, so the biggest inhibiting factor for Dorian will continue to be extremely dry mid-level air that occasionally works its way into the cyclone's core. Given the system's appearance and the environment ahead, some intensification is expected over the next 48 hours. However, given the storm's weakened state this evening, I have elected to drop the idea of hurricane status in the Caribbean, at least for now. This decrease in original peak strength is countered by an increase in the strength of Dorian on day 3, as it looks less likely at the moment that the cyclone will interact significantly with the Dominican Republic. Finally, given a favorable environment in the Bahamas on days 4 and 5, I have elected to add a hurricane point. While chances of significant land interaction have decreased, there is still a non-zero possibility that Dorian shifts westward and dissipates over Hispaniola.
The system is moving toward the west-northwest this evening. A west-northwest and then northwest track is expected over the next 2 days as mid-level ridging north of the cyclone weakens. By day 4 and day 5, high pressure should establish itself off the Southeast United States, forcing Dorian toward the west-northwest or west. Given current projections, Dorian should move through the Windward Islands in a few hours, pass between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico late Wednesday, move through the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday, finally arriving at the eastern coastline of Florida late Saturday.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
Atlantic/2018/05L/Archive/2

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Ernesto is beginning its lengthy transition to a tropical cyclone this afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates that convection is bubbly across the entirety of the its circulation, as opposed to being focused in one quadrant like last night. This should allow the storm-scale environment to moisten and become more supportive of convection. Exceptionally cold upper-air temperatures near -57C should provide ample instability for that convection to develop and allow Ernesto to become a warm core tomorrow. The initial intensity is held at 35kt in agreement with ST2.5/35kt from TAFB, but some intensification is expected over the next 24 hours as Ernesto remains over marginally warm ocean temperatures and in a low wind shear environment. Degeneration to a post-tropical cyclone is expected in about 36 hours before it merges with a frontal system around 3 days from now.

Ernesto is moving toward the north but should execute a turn toward the north-northeast in a few hours as a mid-level trough approaches from the west. It should continue on this path for the remainder of the forecast period before merging with the frontal system.

INIT 15/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 16/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 16/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

36H 17/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 17/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 18/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/54

Dorian continues to weaken this morning, with convection near the center waning on infrared satellite imagery. With a frontal boundary developing in the southeast quadrant, the hurricane continues to change its nature from tropical to extratropical. Additionally much of the shallower convection remains in a wide swath north of the center. Dvorak intensity estimates are slowly decreasing which justifies an intensity lowered to 75 kt.
With sea surface temperatures steeply declining and vertical wind shear steeply increasing over the course of the next few hours, Dorian should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics more rapidly. It should complete its transition into an extratropical cyclone in about 18 to 24 hours. Around day 3, Ex-Dorian is expected to be absorbed into another strong cyclone.
Dorian should continue tracking northeastward quickly for the next 36 hours, passing over Nova Scotia tonight as a strong extratropical cyclone, before turning more easterly over Québec and Newfoundland and Labrador late tomorrow. Ex-Dorian will continue out into the North Atlantic until it dissipates.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/13L/Archive/19

Lorenzo has reintensified into a major hurricane overnight. The eye-wall replacement cycle discussed in the previous advisory has completed and the eye has begun to clear out again. A microwave pass at 11Z showed that the replacement is complete and there is now a closed circular and very large eye. The cloud pattern is beginning to show this. Dvorak intensity estimates are up to T5.5/100 kt for SAB and TAFB and T5.7/110 kt from CIMSS ADT. A blend of these give the current intensity, 105 kt for this advisory. This could be conservative as the eye has continued to clear out.
Weakening was expected to continue, but it is impossible to ignore the current trends. With the eye clearing and Dvorak intensity estimates approaching T6.0, it's pretty clear to me that Lorenzo should be strengthening over the course of today. This is mildly unexpected since shear remains moderate, around 15 kt, though other factors remain favourable. Given that the conditions are likely to remain marginal for the next 2 days but current trends, the intensity forecast has been increased and now shows some slight strengthening today and stagnation until day 2. After day 2, shear is expected to decrease while the storm remains over warm waters, so some more strengthening is expected then. By day 4, the storm will begin extra tropical transition and will begin to weaken fairly rapidly. The forecast calls for post-tropical transition to be complete by day 5.
The track forecast remains straightforward. The hurricane is beginning to turn north-northeastward around the periphery of a ridge to its east. This turn will be complete in about a day. By day 3 or 4, a trough will begin to accelerate the storm towards the north-northeast. The hurricane will likely be a very powerful tropical cyclone as it passes near the Azores.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 110 KT 120 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/10

There's not much new to talk about when it comes to Tropical Depression Chantal, which remains a swirl of agitated cumulus with several smaller mesovortices spinning within a defined circular oculus. Buoyed by marine instability, Chantal continues to fire deeper convection in the eastern semicircle. Current intensity estimates sank further to T1.5/25kt from both SAB and TAFB, but given prior evidence of higher winds within the southeast quadrant, I have elected to maintain Chantal as a 30 kt tropical depression.
Chantal is now engaged within the loop depicted in our prior track forecasts, and awaits an approaching trough to pick up Chantal and accelerate it towards the northeast. In the meanwhile, the atmosphere remains devoid of high moisture content, which should keep convection limited despite some recovery of sea surface temperatures and lower shear. We should expected to see a few limited puffs of occasional convection over the next day or so before the thermodynamics become unfavorable for anything organized.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/2A

Tropical Storm Beryl Special Discussion Number 2A

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:45 PM AST Thu Jul 5 2018

This is a special discussion to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Beryl with maximum winds of 45kt. Conventional imagery shows that an eye or eye-like feature has become evident for the past hour, and this feature is faintly apparent on infrared imagery as of late. In addition, a 1724Z SSMI microwave pass showed that Beryl had acquired a formative eyewall. In light of these developments, SAB revised their 1745Z estimate from T2.5/35kt to T3.0/45kt. The initial intensity is raised to 45kt accordingly.

A full discussion and updated intensity forecast will be released at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/6

Ragged convection continues to wrap around the center of Humberto, resulting in a bit of improvement in its satellite presentation but not enough to warrant an increase in intensity. I have opted to maintain the initial intensity at 50 kt.
Warm sea surface temperatures, adequate mid-level humidity, and a favorable upper level environment influenced by an upper-level trough supporting strong upper-level divergence will provide a favorable environment for steady strengthening for the next several days. Increasing shear on day 5 is expected to induce weakening.
Humberto is moving northwest this morning southwest of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda. A weakness in this ridge is expected to develop today and this will result in a northward motion by the end of the day today. An approaching upper trough will further alter this course toward the east-northeast by about 48h. On day 5, this path takes the storm close to Bermuda.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH
Atlantic/2019/06L/Archive/6

The depression has intensified into Tropical Storm Erin. Conventional satellite imagery shows that the low-level circulation has migrated farther south and is partially covered by the large expanse of organized, deep convection. Although satellite intensity estimates were only T2.0/30kt at 0z, these organizational trends lend me to believe the system has intensified at least slightly. The initial intensity is now 35kt. Some increase in strength is possible over the next day or so as upper-level winds decrease ever so slightly and ocean temperatures remain warm. Extratropical transition is expected about 2 days from now, and that post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by a larger non-tropical entity about 3 days from now.
Erin is moving north-northwest this evening. A drift north-northwest or north is expected for the next day before an approaching upper-level trough causes Erin to accelerate northeast. The system is expected to remain east of the United States but may move across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/18

Jerry remains a sheared tropical cyclone this evening, with the low-level circulation located on the western edge of amorphous deep convection. Plentiful spiral banding exists in the eastern semicircle, but the western side continues to be bare in the face of strong upper-level winds. A NOAA plane investigated the cyclone a few hours ago, measuring peak flight-level winds of 57kt; the associated SFMR instrument was malfunctioning. The central pressure had fallen to 993mb. Although the flight-level winds explicitly measured would support a lower intensity, the NOAA mission was brief in nature and barely sampled the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 55kt for this advisory.
An upper-level trough is digging southward, imparting strong vertical wind shear on Jerry. Previous model forecasts showed the tropical cyclone and the trough remaining distinctly separate, providing a favorable 200mb pattern for intensification. The recent trend, however, has been for this trough to cut-off into an upper-level low as it pushes south of Jerry; accordingly, upper-level winds never truly relent in the short term. A brief stint of favorable shear values may exist between 36 and 72 hours, but by then ocean temperatures and mid-level relative humidity values are becoming increasingly unfavorable. The updated forecast is generally the same as the last one.
The cyclone is tracking north-northwest this evening. A gradual curve to the north and then northeast should occur over the coming days as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. Jerry is expected to pass narrowly north of Bermuda in about 2 days from now before continuing into the open Atlantic.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/1

The season's first tropical cyclone in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic has formed this afternoon. Visible satellite animations show that the vigorous tropical wave that had been progressing across the central Atlantic over days prior has acquired a well-defined and closed surface low. In addition, convection has been persisting near and west of the center, with upper-level outflow expanding in that direction. Satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25kt from SAB, T2.0/30kt from TAFB, and T2.1/31kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. These numbers, combined with earlier scatterometer data, support initializing a 30kt tropical depression for this advisory.
The intensity forecast for Tropical Depression Five is complicated. The system is currently experiencing some moderate easterly wind shear from the vigorous African Easterly Jet. This shear should decrease shortly and remain at favorable levels until about day 4, when the system should come into contact with a cut-off low over the central Caribbean. Ocean temperatures are expected to remain around 28-29C through the forecast period, and 700-500mb relative humidity values should slowly increase. The culmination of these factors would feasibly support development for the next several days. This is supported by the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF, which all indicate a Category 1 hurricane. On the contrary, the global models -- the GFS, GFS legacy, UKMET, and ECMWF -- indicate little to no development over the coming days, with dissipation in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Anecdotally, in previous cases with such model bifurcation, global models tend to perform better. That being said, a significant convectively-coupled kelvin wave just passed TD Five, and this may throw a wrench into the intensity forecast versus other cases. For now, I have elected to highlight steady strengthening up to day 4, with weakening at the end of the period. This is a low confidence forecast.
The depression is moving toward the west this afternoon, steered by a 700mb ridge of high pressure to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. This ridge will direct TD Five on a west to west-northwest course for the next 4 days or so, with a curve more toward the northwest on day 5 as the ridge shifts eastward. On this track, the depression will move through the central Leeward Islands (around Barbados) in about 3 days, approaching either Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic by day 5. Models are in good agreement regarding this outlook.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...MOVING THROUGH LEEWARD ISLANDS
96H 28/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/16

Gabrielle has changed little since the previous advisory, with one exception being that deep convection has rotated to the northwest quadrant as opposed to the southwest like seen earlier. The initial intensity remains 45kt based on earlier ASCAT data. Over the coming days, Gabrielle will be embedded within a moderate wind shear, warm ocean temperature, low mid-level relative humidity environment. This should limit intensification to a gradual pace over the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, a track over frigid ocean temperatures, coupled with interaction with interaction with non-tropical features, should lead to extratropical transition by day 3. Dissipation is expected on day 5.
The cyclone is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest. A curve toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the northeast with accelerating pace thereafter. Models remain in good agreement regarding this forecast philosophy.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/04L/Archive/11

Chantal is nearing degeneration into a remnant low. Satellite imagery indicates that the storm's low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and that only sporadic bursts of shower (not thunderstorm) activity continue to form. If deeper, more organized convection does not return soon, this is likely to be Chantal's final advisory as a tropical cyclone. While the system has entered a lower shear, warmer water environment since yesterday, it remains embedded in extremely dry mid-level relative humidity values. Thus, degeneration is expected tonight, followed by dissipation in about 3 days. The system is currently moving south-southeast, but a turn toward the west is expected as a mid-level ridge, currently southwest of Chantal, shifts to the systems' northeast.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0700Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/12L/Archive/8

Karen has fallen apart since the last advisory. Shear has unexpectedly increased, blowing dry air into the systems nascent core, and land interaction from Puerto Rico caused the low level and mid level centres to get tilted once again which the storm still has not recovered from. Given the increased disheveled appearance of Karen, the intensity has been reduced slightly. An aircraft reconnaissance mission into Karen will arrive for the next advisory giving us a clearer idea of her intensity.
Intensity guidance is rather split on the future of Karen. All global models show slow weakening into a remnant low over the course of the next 3 or 4 days. While the statistical guidance is split with some showing slow strengthening and others also showing slow weakening. What is still clear is that the conditions Karen is moving into should get more favourable over the next day or two, so some slightly strengthening is expected. Following that, on days 3 and 4, conditions should be marginal to prevent any strengthening or weakening. On day 5, shear and dry air is expected to start impacting the system and the intensity forecast shows some weakening.
Karen is currently moving northward between a split of a high and an upper-level low. The upper-level low is expected to retrograde west-southwestwards around day 2, allowing ridging north of Karen to balloon in size. The stronger ridge to Karen's north is expected to move her towards the west-southwest by day 3 for the rest of the forecast period. This track has pretty solid consensus with the models.

FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/20

Dorian is in the middle of a restructuring period this afternoon. Deep convection is firing around the storm's center, with lightning detected in the western quadrant of the core. Dorian has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle today, a process that should be in the process of finalizing. In the absence of reconnaissance data, satellite intensity estimates continue to support an initial intensity of 75kt and a pressure around 986mb.
Upper-level outflow is expanding in all directions as Dorian utilizes several outflow channels. With the shear that was plaguing the storm having decreased, dry air entrainment has become less of an issue today. Moving forward, the combination of light upper-level winds, an increasingly moist environment, and ocean temperatures above 28C should favor significant strengthening, with the hurricane's intensity largely modulated by internal core processes like we have seen today. Dorian is still expected to become a Category 4 hurricane before landfall, but it would not be surprising to see the system land on either side of this threshold.
Dorian is moving northwest, a motion that has been ongoing for the past day and a half and a motion that is expected to continue about that long. Beyond 36 hours, high pressure will establish itself off the Southeast United States, forcing Dorian west and, depending on its intensity, perhaps even west-southwest. The big story this afternoon is the continuing trend toward the potential for a recurve northward as the aforementioned ridge weakens by the approach of an upper-level trough. This is a possibility supported by the GFS, the ECMWF, and a significant number of both models' ensembles suites. While the chances that Dorian crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico have decreased lately, the most favored solution still appears to be that an intense Hurricane Dorian strikes the eastern coast of Florida while slowing down.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 120 KT 140 MPH
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/17

Dorian has continued to intensify since the previous advisory. Radar imagery out of San Juan, in conjunction with observations from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, show that the system's eyewall has closed off and become circular. A large feeder band extends east of the circulation, with a pronounced dry slot between it and the central dense overcast, likely the consequence of dry air being pulled off the mountains of Puerto Rico and injected into the circulation via an uptick in wind shear from the southwest. Flight-level and surface wind measurements from the most recent plane support upping the initial intensity to 75kt.
Aside from the brief uptick in wind shear tonight, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely conducive for intensification. In fact, 48 hours from now, Dorian is expected to have three separate mass sinks at its disposal: a broad upper low northeast of the Caribbean, a weakening upper-level trough moving through the Florida Straits, and the mid-latitude jet stream across the Southeast United States. Combined with ocean temperatures above 28C and 700-500mb relative humidity values that should rise in excess of 65 percent, the environment should favor significant development, and Dorian is expected to become a Category 4 hurricane prior to striking the eastern coastline of Florida. Its intensity over the next few days, particularly after it becomes a major hurricane, will likely be modulated by internal core dynamics that are not forecast well in advance. It would not be shocking to see Dorian peak on either side of its current category peak.
The hurricane is moving northwest tonight, and this motion is expected to continue for a little over 36 hours. Beyond that time, high pressure should build off the Southeast U.S. coastline, forcing Dorian west-northwest and eventually west. There is a two-fold split in model guidance this cycle. The first is that dynamical guidance is positioned north of global models, especially the ECMWF and its ensembles. Secondly, there is a split dependent on intensity, with the stronger members focused farther south. Given Dorian's current structure, the forecast environmental parameters, and past trends in previous tropical cyclones, my educated guess is that the southern members will win out in the end. Regardless of exact positioning, an intense and extremely dangerous hurricane is expected to strike the eastern coastline of Florida in a little over 4 days. Some weakening should occur over the state.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 115 KT 130 MPH
Atlantic/2018/04L/Archive/10

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 10

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 9 2018

Debby has opened up this afternoon and is no longer a closed tropical cyclone. High-resolution visible imagery shows that there are no longer Earth-relative easterly winds north of the circulation center; the vulnerability of the storm's northern flanks was noted in the morning ASCAT scatterometer data. Winds are estimated at 35 kt, assuming that the area of gale-force winds observed is still evident towards the system's south. Some highly localized convection has fired on occasion in various parts of the circulation, but this will be quite limited with conditions becoming less thermodynamically unstable. Debby is expected to continue tracking northeast and eventually be absorbed by the extratropical cyclone to the system's north.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 11/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 11/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/07L/Archive/2

The cloud pattern of the system in the Gulf of Mexico has become better organized this afternoon as deep convection fires near the center and a prominent spiral band takes shape in the western semicircle. The circulation itself is partially exposed due to moderate easterly wind shear. Despite this fact, a 1632z ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 35kt in the western quadrant, and so the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand. A NOAA reconnaissance plane is en route to the cyclone to determine its true strength.
Extremely warm ocean temperatures near 31C, mid-level relative humidity values around 60 percent, and 10-15kt of easterly wind shear should promote a little bit of organization before Fernand makes landfall in 36 hours, and the storm is expected to peak with winds of 45-50kt around that time. Quick dissipation should occur once the system moves inland into the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico.
High pressure over the Southwest United States is steering Fernand west, but this motion should become more west-northwest or northwest in short order and remain so for the remainder of the cyclone's life. On that trajectory, Fernand should make landfall in northern Mexico, and the chances that it deviates northward into Texas continue to be low.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/13

Jerry weakened slightly over night. The burst of convection from last night did persist, however it never quite developed into a proper CDO. An aircraft reconnaissance aircraft flew into the storm this morning and found SFMR in excess of 50 kt and some 62 kt flight level winds on the first pass. Normally this would support an intensity of 55 kt. However, by the time of the second pass, the centre had become elongated, pressure increased and winds fell. Maximum flight level winds were just 50 kt on this pass. Initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory.
Jerry still has some more time passing through unfavourable conditions. With shear likely remaining unfavourable throughout the forecast period. As a result, slight intensity weakening is likely throughout the next 36 hours. However, by day 3 Jerry will be entering an environment of divergent flow which is likely to help the system strengthen despite the high shear. This is shown by all global models this morning, despite minimal support for reintensification into a hurricane by intensity models. Both the global models and intensity models show a re-peak in intensity around day 4, as the system is moving past Bermuda. Some slight weakening is expected by day 5 as extra-tropical transition begins.
Jerry has completed its turn to the northwest around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. This movement into the weakeness is expected to continue for the next 2 days before a trough begins to pull Jerry out to the notheast. Current track forecast has the cyclone very close to Bermuda around day 4.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 80 KT 95 MPH
Icchoku Inubashiri

Voz

**Icchoku Inubashiri** es un personaje ficticio de la franquicia *Patlabor*.

## Personalidad

Nacido en Kamata, Tokio. Tiene 28 años de edad. Se sabe muy poco de él, debido a su breve aparición. Es un terrorista clasificado en el nivel ocho de peligrosidad. Es tosco y violento, pero también inteligente y astuto. Tiene buena condición física y es muy hábil en combate cuerpo a cuerpo.

## Historia

### Línea temporal Serie de Tv

En 1993 ingresó en el ejército. Años más tarde, se transfirió al cuerpo aéreo de labors, donde pilotó un Helldiver. Tras licenciarse, se convirtió en un activista del grupo Home of the Sea, participando en varios actos violentos. Fue arrestado en 8 ocasiones, siempre ha sido puesto en libertad por falta de pruebas.

Inubashiri estaba siendo perseguido por agentes de la división de seguridad pública. Su intención era robar un labor para cometer un atentado terrorista. Primero se robó un taxi. Cerca de Utsunomiya, su taxi se quedo sin gasolina y lo abandono. Luego robó una motocicleta y burló a la patrulla que intentaba detenerle. Paso por Shirakawa, Fukushima, Kohriyama, Yanekawa y por Sagae saltándose todos los semáforos. También comió fideos en Tsuruoka y se fue sin pagar la cuenta.

Finalmente, planeaba robar el XR-99 Doshka, que estaba pasando por la ciudad portuaria de Sakata. Sin embargo, Inubashiri no sabía que estaba siendo utilizado, su participación era parte de un elaborado plan creado por el Agente Takahata, en el cual Inubashiri era una distracción para engañar a las agencias y permitir la deserción de un oficial de la KGB llamado Ivan Ivanovitch Ivanovsky.

Cuando Ivanovsky decide desertar de la Unión Soviética, se encarga de pasar de contrabando un par de labors Doshka por la ciudad portuaria de Sakata. Su deserción atrajo la atención de las agencias de espionaje. Ellos planeaban distraer a los agentes fingiendo el robo del labor a manos de Inubashiri. El plan de Ivanovsky fue frustrado por los miembros de la Segunda Sección de Vehículos Especiales.
Atlantic/2019/01L/Archive/4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 4

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

Andrea has lacked convective activity over, or even near, the well-defined circulation since early this morning. In the presence of wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and an abundance of dry mid-level air, showers and thunderstorms are not likely to reform. Therefore, Andrea has degenerated to a remnant area of low pressure. This low is executing a turn toward the east and should continue on that trajectory until it is absorbed by a frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 22/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 22/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED BY FRONT
Atlantic/2019/06L/Archive/2

Six has changed little in organization this evening, with a broad low-level circulation positioned west and north of the deepest convective activity. An ASCAT pass from about an hour ago showed maximum winds remain around 30kt, so that is the initial intensity used for this advisory.
The depression is currently experiencing 15-20kt of vertical wind shear. These winds may slacken somewhat over the next day or two, allowing for some intensification in an environment of warm ocean temperatures and adequate mid-level relative humidity values. The biggest detriment to intensification may instead be the depression's broad and trough-like structure. Intensity guidance does not support a peak quite as high as earlier, so I have reduced that for the purpose of this advisory. Otherwise, transition to an extratropical cyclone is anticipated in about 4 days, with dissipation a day later as the system is absorbed by an even larger non-tropical low.
The depression has moved eastward today, albeit very slowly. Given collapsed steering currents, rather random wobbling is expected for the next day or so. Thereafter, an approaching upper-level trough should cause the system to move northeast while accelerating, keeping it away from the United States. The storm may scrape Nova Scotia and later impact Newfoundland as it is transitioning.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/10L/Archive/2

Convection continues to bubble in association with the central convection of Tropical Depression Ten this afternoon as it sets sail across the central Atlantic. Cloud tops have cooled since the morning's developments, but the system overall has retained its overall organization. High-resolution visible data suggest that the center of circulation may be weighted slightly on the eastern side of convection, perhaps due to some residual 10-15 kt easterly shear. Based on good consensus from available satellite intensity estimates unchanged since the first advisory, the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt.
The combination of a highly impressive convectively-coupled Kelvin wave and the present kinematic and thermodynamic parameters over the central Atlantic bode well for Ten's organization. With a very broad upper-level anticyclone suspended across the main development region, deep-layer wind shear values are expected to fall tomorrow to more ideal values amid 28C sea surface temperatures. If Ten can remain sufficiently compact, it may be able to keep out drier air and maintain muster as we saw with Dorian east of the Lesser Antilles. After two days, a northwesterly flow region between an upper-level ridge and low are expected to increase wind shear to roughly 20kt near the Leeward Islands. Intensity in the late-run is dependent on the degree of interaction with the Greater Antilles, but it is expected that wind shear will begin to diminish at days 4-5 as Ten becomes better aligned with an upper-level ridge centered over the eastern Caribbean. Gradual intensification is depicted throughout the current forecast, with the rate of this intensification largely modulated by the anticipated shear values as all other parameters appear favorable.
Ten is currently moving west-northwestward in response to the large Azores-Bermuda high, keeping the tropical depression within low-level westerlies. It is anticipated that Ten's future track will follow the periphery of this ridge, resulting in a track that curves north after four days as Ten is guided into the weakness carved out by Hurricane Humberto. Most models are in good consensus over a traditional curved track that passes north of the Greater Antilles, with the only outlier being the HWRF which takes a track into the Caribbean due to forecast ridge-building that currently isn't supported by most ensemble fields.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH
Atlantic/2019/02L/Archive/20

Analyses from the Storm Prediction Center show that the low-level moisture transport parameter has fallen below 10 on the western side of Barry's circulation, suggesting that the dry air layer aloft the center of Barry is transitioning to a more deep-layer profile. GFS cyclone phase analyses further indicate that Barry is no longer a deep-layer warm core system, and upper-level characteristics have transitioned to a cold-core thermal profile. There is some convection with modest 25 kft echo tops, but these are sparse and disorganized. On this basis, Barry has been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. The intensity remains at 20 kt based on a wide swath of 18-22 kt surface observations along the Mississippi River. The remnants of Barry should open up into a trough sometime tomorrow as they track north-northeast.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0600Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Atlantic/2019/05L/Archive/41

The structure of Dorian has evolved tonight, with a massive eye reappearing in conventional satellite imagery. I call it the eye, but the whole feature is not really an eye. Instead, an area of dry air, originating from where colder, upwelled waters have stabilized the air temperature above them, is circulating around the southern side of the center. Apart from intermittent breaks in convection on the south side of the storm, the central dense overcast of Dorian remains quite organized. An Air Force reconnaissance plane has been investigating the hurricane over the past few hours, finding peak flight-level winds near 100kt and a minimum pressure that has slowly risen to 961mb. Surface reduction from 700mb supports an initial intensity of 90kt for this advisory.
While Dorian has grown in size, its core remains sufficiently defined that reorganization may be possible in the short term. This re-intensification, if it occurs, would come about from replenished ocean waters from the Gulf Stream. Several models support this scenario, with the ECMWF indicating a substantial pressure fall over the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS/LGEM models depicting a 100kt peak. Wind shear should remain light during that time, so I have updated the forecast to show some slight redevelopment for the first time. After 36 hours, increasing upper-level winds should impart shear and help inject dry air into Dorian, causing it to weaken. Extratropical transition has been moved forward to day 4.
Dorian is moving slowly northwestward today as high pressure north of it weakens. This northwestward motion began a little behind schedule, which has resulted in a westward shift in model guidance tonight since the upper-level trough responsible for eroding the ridge will have more time to lift out. Given the change, Dorian is expected to come dangerously close to the coastline of South Carolina. Landfall in North Carolina is still expected, but not explicitly listed below just due to timing. Dorian should accelerate northeastward, reaching Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as an extratropical cyclone between days 4 and 5.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2019/09L/Archive/22

Humberto has become an exceptionally powerful extratropical cyclone. Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system's low-level circulation has become wholly displaced to the south of the associated deep convection as a dry air slot engulfs the south and west semicircles. A 1416z ASCAT pass showed that a frontal boundary had become attached to the center from the northeast as well. More notably, that same pass depicted a 95kt wind barb, which is an incredible feat considering the 25km grid spacing of the instrument. A slow decline in strength is expected over the new few days, with dissipation not expected until 72 hours.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving rapidly northeastward. Humberto should curve north-northeast tonight as it interacts with a nearby mid-level low, but a turn back toward the northeast is expected by tomorrow night. This should keep the cyclone south of Newfoundland.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Atlantic/2018/02L/Archive/11

Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018

Over the last several days, the low-level and mid-level remnants of Hurricane Beryl, reformed or otherwise, have crept across the Caribbean Sea, and in response to troughing, lifted north into the Sargasso Sea and are now northwest of Bermuda. On Friday, the remnants developed a well-defined low-level circulation, but the system was still a mostly frontal feature. Since that time, the low has become more dissociated with the front and is maintaining its own convective activity. With the increase in organization now more independent of the front while the system remains intertwined under the upper-trough, the remnants are now sufficiently organized to be reclassified as a subtropical storm. Visible imagery shows that the convection is displaced from a gyre-like center of circulation due to shear, but has become more consolidated during the late afternoon. An ASCAT pass at 1453Z showed a slightly elongated center of circulation with gale-force winds in the northeastern quadrant as confirmed by in-situ marine observations. Based on this information, the intensity for Beryl this advisory is set at 35 kt.

Not much to speak of regarding Beryl's forecast track as a weak shortwave trough is responsible for its present northeasterly motion and will continue to propel the system towards the northeast in the direction of Newfoundland. Conditions are not supportive of any tropical transition as Beryl is expected to continue to comingle with the shortwave trough. Sea surface temperatures are a tepid 25C and fall rapidly in 24 hours, while wind shear is high and will remain high. Beryl is currently located in a mid-level sweet spot where the 500 hPa low associated with the upper-trough is coaligned with the surface circulation. However, this is only a brief window of alignment as the trough is expected to dig further as Beryl moves northeast. The current intensity forecast shows Beryl maintaining its current strength for the next day or so before tapering off.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 15/0600 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

24H 15/1800 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

36H 16/0600 30KT 35MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H 16/1800 25KT 30MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H 17/1800 20KT 25MPH...REMNANT LOW/EXTRATROP

96H 18/1800...DISSIPATED
Atlantic/2019/08L/Archive/23

While Gabrielle has improved convective wise since last night, this thunderstorm activity remains pretty disorganized with no evidence of inner core features. A 1306z ASCAT pass showed that maximum winds had decreased to around 40kt; however, to account for undersampling, the initial intensity has only been lowered to 45kt. Continued weakening is expected as Gabrielle enters progressively higher wind shear and rapidly-cooling waters. Extratropical transition is expected in 36 hours, with dissipation around day 3.
Gabrielle has turned northeastward, and this motion should continue without pause during the remainder of the cyclone's life, only at an increasingly rapid pace.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP