Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-01 (1045 rows)

2026-01.json

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+{
+  "month": "2026-01",
+  "count": 1045,
+  "mean_brier": 0.0027,
+  "mean_log_loss": 0.0215,
+  "by_venue": [
+    {
+      "venue": "kalshi",
+      "count": 1045,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0027,
+      "mean_log_loss": 0.0215
+    }
+  ],
+  "by_category": [
+    {
+      "category": "Entertainment",
+      "count": 410,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0005
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Sports",
+      "count": 278,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0006
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Mentions",
+      "count": 158,
+      "mean_brier": 0.004
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Companies",
+      "count": 86,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0074
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Politics",
+      "count": 71,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0055
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Crypto",
+      "count": 25,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0224
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Elections",
+      "count": 9,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0219
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Financials",
+      "count": 3,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0001
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Science and Technology",
+      "count": 3,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0018
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Economics",
+      "count": 1,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0009
+    }
+  ],
+  "calibration_buckets": [
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
+      "count": 721,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
+      "count": 10,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
+      "count": 2,
+      "actual_rate": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
+      "count": 0,
+      "actual_rate": null
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
+      "count": 1,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
+      "count": 4,
+      "actual_rate": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
+      "count": 0,
+      "actual_rate": null
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
+      "count": 3,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
+      "count": 4,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
+      "bucket_hi": 1,
+      "count": 300,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    }
+  ],
+  "filter": {
+    "min_volume": 100
+  },
+  "generated_at": "2026-04-18T22:49:34.179Z"
+}