Refresh calibration scorecard for 2026-02 (1348 rows)

2026-02.json

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+{
+  "month": "2026-02",
+  "count": 1348,
+  "mean_brier": 0.0039,
+  "mean_log_loss": 0.0271,
+  "by_venue": [
+    {
+      "venue": "kalshi",
+      "count": 1348,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0039,
+      "mean_log_loss": 0.0271
+    }
+  ],
+  "by_category": [
+    {
+      "category": "Mentions",
+      "count": 534,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0002
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Entertainment",
+      "count": 238,
+      "mean_brier": 0.012
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Politics",
+      "count": 166,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0021
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Sports",
+      "count": 122,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0088
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Elections",
+      "count": 118,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0009
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Companies",
+      "count": 86,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0004
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Crypto",
+      "count": 21,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0281
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Economics",
+      "count": 19,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0009
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Financials",
+      "count": 17,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0015
+    },
+    {
+      "category": "Social",
+      "count": 14,
+      "mean_brier": 0.0006
+    }
+  ],
+  "calibration_buckets": [
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.1,
+      "count": 759,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.1,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.2,
+      "count": 17,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.2,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.3,
+      "count": 10,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.3,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.4,
+      "count": 3,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.4,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.5,
+      "count": 2,
+      "actual_rate": 0.5
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.5,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.6,
+      "count": 1,
+      "actual_rate": 0
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.6,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.7,
+      "count": 4,
+      "actual_rate": 0.75
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.7,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.8,
+      "count": 1,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.8,
+      "bucket_hi": 0.9,
+      "count": 8,
+      "actual_rate": 1
+    },
+    {
+      "bucket_lo": 0.9,
+      "bucket_hi": 1,
+      "count": 543,
+      "actual_rate": 0.9963
+    }
+  ],
+  "filter": {
+    "min_volume": 100
+  },
+  "generated_at": "2026-04-18T22:49:33.785Z"
+}