Publish CC-BY-4.0 License and Use section per Terms §13
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README.md
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---
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license: cc-by-4.0
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language:
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- en
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pretty_name: Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards
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tags:
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- prediction-markets
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- calibration
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- brier-score
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- log-loss
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- forecasting
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source_datasets:
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- original
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---
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# Prediction Market Calibration Scorecards
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Monthly Brier + log-loss calibration breakdowns for Kalshi + Polymarket. Each month provides mean Brier, mean log-loss, per-venue and per-category breakdowns, and a 10-bucket calibration histogram (actual vs predicted). Published with a 14-day delay after month-end to capture late resolutions.
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## License and Use
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This dataset is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
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(CC-BY-4.0; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). You may use it
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freely for personal, research, educational, and commercial purposes — including
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training, evaluating, and fine-tuning machine-learning models. Attribution is
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required when the dataset is redistributed in substantially its original form
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or cited in published work; credit as "SimpleFunctions (simplefunctions.dev)".
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Additional terms apply: you may not re-host this dataset, in whole or in
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substantial part, as an API or service that functionally substitutes for a
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SimpleFunctions endpoint. See Terms §13.2 at https://simplefunctions.dev/terms.
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Provenance, update cadence, and schema are documented below.
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## Update cadence
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Monthly (14-day delay).
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## Provenance
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Source: https://simplefunctions.dev
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Generator: SimpleFunctions public data pipeline
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Contact: patrick@simplefunctions.dev
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