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Normally, I might not deal with a four year old paper by James Hansen, the NASA doyenne of serial doomcasters. However, I note that this paper has been cited ten times this year alone, so I thought I might comment.
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He makes yet more appeals to authority, that these poor scientists have such great difficulty in transmitting their superior knowledge to the masses, that the only answer is to say that the majority of scientists agree on the main issues. Of course this is also how they try to stifle dissenting voices from climate scientists who are just as qualified to address the climate issues, if not more so, than the main protagonists.
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Vecchi and Knutson report that "the estimated trend for 1900-2006 is highly significant (+~4.2 storms century -1 )," but they say that this trend "is strongly influenced by a minimum in 1910-30, perhaps artificially enhancing significance," whereas using their base case adjustment for missed TCs leads to an 1878-2006 trend in the number of TCs that is only "weakly positive" and "not statistically significant." In addition, they say that "the trend in average TC duration (1878-2006) is negative and highly significant." What it means
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In the words of the authors, "there has been no significant warming or cooling during the entire period 1876-1993 for the annual data and the seasonal temperature data." What it means
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The reason why NASA/NCDC surface data doesnt match satellite data, is because their surface data is fraudulent
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An MIT study led by ex-CIA director John Deutsch and Ernest J. Moniz, a former undersecretary of energy, recommended expanding the use of nuclear power around the world to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The MIT panel said that it shared "the scientific consensus that emissions must be reduced and that the US will eventually join with other nations in the effort to do so."
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China does not control the agenda of next week's U.N. climate meeting in the northern port city of Tianjin, which runs from October 4-9. Beijing is not expected to announce any new carbon-cutting measures in the talks.
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officials and public planning experts" scheduled to meet with Rosenberg will manage to find private transportation and hold their global warming forum today, or whether the record snow and bitter cold will force it to be rescheduled.
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There is not yet reason to assume, say the scientists, that the mercury in the world??s thermometers will now rise any higher than it would have risen during two or three other unusually warm periods since the beginning of our calendar. These were not years which scorched the globe as fatally as the ice ages had frozen it. But they were years of mild winters and hard summers. In some parts of Central Europe, Africa and the Americas they brought drought.
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She has seen in the North American trees the feathery but unmistakable signatures of the Medieval Warm Period , a era from 1100 to 1375 A.D. when, according to European writers of the time and other sources, the climate was so balmy that wine grapes flourished in Britain and the Vikings farmed the now-frozen expanse of Greenland; and the Little Ice Age , a stretch of abnormally frigid weather lasting roughly from 1450 to 1850.
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House Republican leaders take issue with the Federal Communications Commission's plan to implement net neutrality regulations.
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Percentage of peak grid power supplied by 7000 wind turbines in Northern Europe in 2004
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I had personally grown pessimistic about our chances when the panel was appointed, but had thought there were arguments we could win and that we might get a good dissent from Judge Sentelle at least on the authority of EPA to tailor the statutory PSD permitting thresholds. Such a dissent would have enhanced the prospects of a motion for the full court to rehear the case en banc and a petition for certiorari to the Supreme Court.
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I said I dont want you to put polar bears on the Endangered Species list.
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"The United Nations's Convention on Biological Diversity is expected to either ban outright or limit research into space sunshades. Although NASA and other organizations are looking into these sunshades as a possible way to slow climate change, environmental advocates have criticized this research as providing only a short-term fix that wouldn't affect the underlying issues, like humanity's overuse of fossil fuels. There are also serious questions about how blocking out part of the Sun's rays could affect weather patterns, ecosystems, and agriculture."
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CEI Expert Available to Comment: Technology Analyst Peter Suderman on how video downloads and other new technologies make cable a la carte laws unnecessary.
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Weve been very clear in our national waste plan. Reuse, materials recycling, and waste reduction are what weve called for, she said.
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Plus there are these other studies which purported to validate positive water feedback, but which don't. Now what the modelers are more interested in is the cloud feedback and how clouds respond. And I've got some results to show you from that. These are the two main things I want to talk about, is water vapor feedback and cloud feedback and then aerosols is getting interesting. You probably had heard that the excuse for the reason why we haven't seen as much global warming as we should have by now has been that the man-produced aerosols are reflecting sunlight. But now, it is being better understood that, apparently, aerosols don't have as much cooling effect as we had thought and indeed might absorb an awful lot of sunlight. And may not have as much cooling effect on the climate as we thought and if we can't blame it on aerosols, maybe we need to go back to water vapor feedback as the culprit.
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Unfortunately, it gets worse. In recent months, EPA has issued two regulationsthe Utility Maximum Achievable Control Technology rule and the Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plantsthat effectively ban the construction of new coal-fired power plants. Thus, EPA has effectively taken coal, one of America's most abundant and reliable energy sources, off the table.
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Watts, A. (2009). Is The U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? Downloaded from http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport spring09.pdf .
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They concluded, "Forests, farms, and grasslands have the potential to absorb more (greenhouse gases), ameliorating climate change. Properly managed, they could buy time for the world's people to make major reductions in greenhouse emissions." They admitted that despite the findings, "There is much we still must discover" (The Australian, May 11)
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There are astonishing differences in the modeled estimates of the past, present and future imbalances and the three components that make up the top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget. That is, there is no agreement on the magnitude of TOA Earths energy imbalance in the models, and there are even wider disagreements in the calculated components that make up that energy budget, how they evolved in the past, and how they may evolve in the futureall suggesting, among the models, there is little agreement in the modeled processes and physics that contribute to global warming now, contributed to it in the past and might contribute to it in the future.
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The warming of the 20 th century was not unprecedented. On the evidence of the warming of 1694 to 1733 in central England, it was well within natural variability.
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And as in Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia, those least able to defend themselvesminorities, the poor, particularly in the Third Worldwould be the principle victims of ideological pseudo-science.
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Indeed, there is no evidence that hurricanes are intensifying anyway. For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization: "Reliable data since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased."
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"As I have said, over and over again, the fundamental point has always been this: Climate change is governed by hundreds of factors, or variables, and the very idea that we can manage climate change predictably by understanding and manipulating at the margins one politically-selected factor (CO2), is as misguided as it gets," Stott wrote.
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itself. The study also catalogues a series of errors and distortions in the Stern Review any one of which would have caused it to fail peer review.
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Three centuries ago, the world ran on green power. Wood was used for heating and cooking, charcoal for smelting and smithing, wind or water-power for pumps mills and ships, and whale oil or tallow for lamps. People and soldiers walked or rode horses, and millions of horses and oxen pulled ploughs, wagons, coaches and artillery.
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One of the 17 attorneys general who vowed last week to target climate change fraud issued a subpoena Thursday to the free-market Competitive Enterprise Institute in what its counsel described as an attack on free speech.
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I want to know when global warming will start. Im still freezing my ass off at the end of April.
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First of all, Im glad that the question of RE significance has been picked up. We raised the issue of spurious RE significance in our GRL article, but the only discussion of it so far has been Huybers 2005 and Wahl and Ammann (in their rejected GRL submission) both of which were critical and sought to restore the old benchmark of 0. Burger and Cubasch, together with the Zorita review, are the second discussion to appreciate that there is a real issue with RE significance.
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2. Arctic sea ice has been established in peer-reviewed papers to fluctuate dramatically, and was far lower than today 7,000 years ago during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. The papers authors showed that wave patterns on the shores of northern Greenland were one proof of several for the open ocean during the period.
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The first wake up call came from attorney Peter Glaser in testimony (November 8, 2007) before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. The U.S. Chamber reinforced Glaser's message in a December 12, 2007 open letter to Congress. The free market coalition also weighed in via the aforementioned letters to President Bush (Dec. 16, 2007) and Sen. Feinstein (Feb. 20, 2008).
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friend-soon he'll think the world of you." I was right.) Dr. Maestripieri's most intriguing chapter is entitled
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M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
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FRACKING, NOT OBAMA POLICIES, RESPONSIBLE FOR CARBON DIOXIDE DECLINE
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In May of last year at Georgetown University, Sen. Clinton gave her first major campaign speech on health care in which she expressed concern that Americans are too obese and committed to seeing Americans lose weight when she s elected president. Last September, Senator Clinton gave another major health-care speech, and again she avoided controversial details: in fact, her whole plan totaled only ten pages " and emphasized consumer choice. Though not quite as innocuous as she claimed, the plan was still a far cry from the HillaryCare of old.
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During the Second World War Allied airfields brought wonderful treasures to New Guinea, and when the war ended the natives, believing the airplanes were from the gods, built their own airports, hoping to use sympathetic magic to bring back the planes and their wondrous treasures. Richard Feynman coined the phrase "cargo cult science" to illustrate a form of pseudo-science, something that looked like science but was not like the "airports" of the islanders.
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No secrets surrounding SEIU's political contributions:
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Yet, we have ample evidence of negative thermometers (actual surface stations measuring air temperature where the resultant data is inverted after processing) in the Steig et al Antarctica is Warming paper, ( Nature, Jan 22, 2009 )thanks to the careful analysis of Jeff Id and RyanO
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While all this has been going on, CFACT continues to reach out to friends and allies here in Peru. Last night, the organization Tradici n y Acci n por un Per Mayor (Tradition and Action for a Greater Peru), hosted an event featuring CFACT speakers Walt Cunningham, Marc Morano and me. The room was packed and our speakers well received.
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Green Tracking Library Exposes Environmental Activists
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The real joker in the deck is that a continuing food shortage will not even cause much hunger. If food is in short supply, farmers around the world will simply plow more and poorer land to grow more low-yield crops. The Green Revolution spared about 7 million square miles for wildlife in the 1960s?the land area of South America. That benefit from ?high-yield conservation? could be lost in the coming decades.
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Heat Dome Creates Several Metres Of New Ice
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In this instance journalist Peter Stanford falls for Pachauri?s claim that he?s being targeted in a shoot-the-messenger scenario. According to this narrative, the public doesn?t want to confront the danger of climate change so the person delivering the unwelcome news gets attacked.
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PayPal hands over 1,000 IP Addresses to the FBI:
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So: The worst of these potential extreme events is the possible disappearance of the summer Arctic ice, an outcome that IPCC now views only as "likely" with "medium confidence," and only under an RCP8.5 scenario. "Extreme" may be in the eye of the beholder; but even in the AR5 there is little confidence in the inevitability of such events, let alone in the broader scientific debate, Sachs's assertions notwithstanding.
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Finally, we looked at a recent article from the scientific journal entitled Coral Reefs written by ten scientists from French Polynesia, France, Florida, and California. Apparently, doing work on the reefs of Moorea (an island in French Polynesia) attracts a crowd? Adjeroud et al. studied the Tiahura Outer Reef Sector (TORS) in Moorea from 1991-2006 (sign us up for this duty) and they noted that Coral assemblages in Moorea, French Polynesia, have been impacted by multiple disturbances (one cyclone and four bleaching events between 1991 and 2006). Their conclusions include the statement In addition, our results reveal that corals can recover rapidly following a dramatic decline. Such decadal-scale recovery of coral cover has been documented at some locations, but our results are novel in demonstrating rapid recovery against a backdrop of ongoing, high frequency, and large-scale disturbances.
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CO2 is not a pollutant. When the Dinosaurs roamed, the CO2 content was 6 to 9 times current and the planet was green from pole to pole; almost no deserts. If we doubled the atmospheric content of CO2, young pine trees would grow at twice the rate and nearly every crop yield would go up 30 to 40%. We, the animals and all land plant life would be healthier if CO2 content were to increase.
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Any true man born on December 5th could get where he did, about 100 km from Spitsbergen, including Pugh, Glashow, Heisenberg, Knut the bear, and your humble correspondent, especially if they had 8 assistants!
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Truth n1 The Mean Global Temperature has been stable since 1 997, despite a continuous increase of the CO 2 content of the air: how could one say that the increase of the CO 2 content of the air is the cause of the increase of the temperature?
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Part 2 tomorrow, Why the world will not agree to pricing carbon ,evaluatesthe output from the most widely cited and accepted climate economics model and shows that at realistically likely participation rates, carbon pricing would be economically damaging for all this century.Costs would exceed benefits for all this century and probably forever. Negotiators recognize these facts so they will not sign up .An alternative approach is suggested that may be worth more consideration than it has received to date.
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"The new capitalism which emerges from the crisis has to be environmental, or it won't be new," she said.
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To clarify the planetary energy balance equation and its (mis) application to interpreting the greenhouse effect, I am posting section 14.3 from my text Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans. If you have been following the Postma thread, you should be familiar with the starting point in this section.
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Thanks are certainly due to my hosts - Peter Gill and Josh - for their hospitality and to Benny and everyone at the GWPF for inviting me to the Vaclav Klaus talk.
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Can any of the areas of the science now be considered settled as a result of AR5s publication, if so which? Unfortunately very few things are settled in the global warming debate. There is only one solid fact: the greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and humans are causing this increase. A second fact is that the climate is warmer than a century ago. How much warmer exactly is still a matter of debate. And how much of the warming is attributable to humans is also far from settled.
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Lets be straight, I dont doubt for a moment that he is acting out of genuine belief. If someone with money was going to pick a front man for the carbon campaign, theyd pick someone with more PR nous and human savvy than Stephan Lewandowsky.
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Atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former founding Director of the U.S. Weather Satellite Service. He is author of Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings Unfinished Debate (The Independent Institute).
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Budziszewski uses three examples abortion, promiscuity, euthanasia to illustrate his central premise: the more radical our attempts to evade the commands of conscience, the harsher the recoil. Our conscience condemns us no matter how fast we run. Indeed, the faster we run, the louder the snap of condemnation.By virtue of this mechanism, we are, in fact, declining at a faster rate socially, which is why I dare to take on Libertarians, or anyone who stands ready with a pattern of excuses. On the other hand, this post is not about Libertarians, or any particular group. It is about the most precious part of YOU: your conscience. St. Paul drove this point home with deadly precision in the second book of Romans, which I reproduce here in its entirety. Read it! See if it does not present you with incontrovertible proof that your actual convenant with the Creator is your conscience.
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Last fall, Paul Crutzen, a Nobel-prize-winning chemist, confirmed these findings. Crutzen and his coauthors found that
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/s/ Leroy Day Hdq. Deputy Director, Space Shuttle Program, 19 years
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The Obama administration announced plans yesterday to create a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Service..
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The programme focuses in on the two Oklahoma tornadoes of May 2013, as an example. They fail to point out though, only one was of the strongest category, an EF-5, of which 59 have occurred since 1953.
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Surface temperature measurements show an increase of less than 0.2 C per decade since the late 1970s, at the low end of the forecast. However, more precise satellite and balloon measurements find no statistically significant increasing temperature trend.
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a perturbative naturalness argument: having a smaller Planck mass than dictated by the inequality above would be a form of fine-tuning
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2. Are the 80 temperature proxies used in the paper sufficiently accurate to establish a solid global temperature chronology?
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There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change
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"The Center for Biological Diversity, one of the nation's most aggressively litigious environmental groups, has not challenged the Ivanpah project. It signed a confidential agreement not to oppose the project in exchange for concessions for the desert tortoise mandating that BrightSource buy land elsewhere for conservation.
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The NOAA HAS made adjustments to US temperature data over the last few years that has increased the apparent warming trend. These changes in adjustments have not been well-explained. In fact, they have not really be explained at all, and have only been detected by skeptics who happened to archive old NOAA charts and created comparisons like the one below. Here is the before and after animation (pre-2000 NOAA US temperature history vs. post-2000). History has been cooled and modern temperatures have been warmed from where they were being shown previously by the NOAA. This does not mean the current version is wrong, but since the entire US warming signal was effectively created by these changes, it is not unreasonable to act for a detailed reconciliation (particularly when those folks preparing the chart all believe that temperatures are going up, so would be predisposed to treating a flat temperature chart like the earlier version as wrong and in need of correction.
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More evidence if any were needed that winter endangers public health and welfare. Tomatoes are a great source of anti-oxidents and other health-enhancing nutrients. And they are delish!
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If you're wondering whether to trust the Environmental Protection Agency on mercury, ozone, climate change or other regulatory actions, you need look no further than how it has handled particulates.
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Tough state laws have induced some illegals to return home, and in Idaho immigrant farm labor is so scarce that the state is hiring out prisoners to harvest crops.
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Thus, three of the four variations contributing to the composite in the medieval period are dominated by NH proxies. Bristlecones, contaminated sediments and Luterbacher??s European instrumental-using network all contribute in varying degrees to three of the four variations, proving my point.
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Not sure what I can say about that, except that I dont understand it in the slightest. My guess is that what has happened is that a faulty computer program has been applied to fudge the record of every temperature station on the planet. The results have then been used without the slightest attempt at quality control.
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None of the IPCC models skillfully predicted the major weather pattern variations (and their observed variations in frequency over time) for the 20 th century. The 1930s and 1950s droughts in the United States , for example, have not been accurately simulated by the IPPC models. The one climate metric that they focus on (the global average surface temperature trend) has been reasonably simulated primarily because they can determine what level of aerosols in the atmosphere over the past decades is required to explain the observed variations of warming and cooling during this time period.
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This year marks the 10th anniversary of Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. The documentary was a critical and box-office success here in the U.S., but not so much in the U.K. In 2007 a High Court ruling in Great Britain found that Gore's documentary on climate change contained key scientific errors and breached education law, making it unacceptable for viewing by students. "Representing partisan political views," the film could only legally be shown if accompanied by a warning about political indoctrination.
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A Dormant Sun: In February, TWTW reported a study from the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia stating that if the current solar cycle pattern continues, with little solar activity, the globe may experience a new Little Ice Age. To the researcher, what is necessary to understanding the influence of the sun is the response of the earth is lagged behind the solar cycles. http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754/10140
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Whats the most-often-presented falsehood theyve manufactured about El Nio and La Nia?
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Coming from India where we routinely suffer power cuts due to mixed-market policies of the government, I found this fantastic. Let's use the wavelength of both light and philosophy to keep darkness at bay.
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Growth rates in the long-term experiment (LTE) did not follow the negative trend with increasing p CO2 observed in the short-term incubation. Instead, growth rate, which was comparable to that of the control treatment in the short-term experiment, stayed high at elevated CO2 levels Although not statistically signicant, a linear regression analysis reveals an increasing trend of coral growth with rising p CO2 concentration . *
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Hans von Storch anvnde hr term with only the occasional grumbling that I have freely Translated by tying nven in a trouser pocket. The whole point p English:
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With respect to the proposed expansion of renewable energy production: wind and solar power receive subsidies per kilowatt-hour vastly larger than those purportedly received by conventional generation, and it remains the case that renewables simply are uncompetitive, in substantial part because the energy content of wind and sunlight is too diffused to be useful without massive capital investment. For a discussion of the economics of renewable power and the weakness of the arguments in support of policies subsidizing it, see this AEI report.
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Iremember warm November days at the beach in Bournemouth during the 1960s, but global warming has turned the weather cold.
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The post-hole syllogism is a clear example of subreption, as are some claims made in the bushfire debate. Some news media reports, or papers in refereed journals of ecology, may mislead public, and hence political opinion. As an example, it may be said that vegetation has been destroyed, without a close definition of that word. Although they may appear to be dead, many Australian plants are well adapted to bushfire, have lignotubers, and resprout readily soon after it. They are no more destroyed, by mild fire, than a garden shrub which is pruned. Other Australian plants need fire, or smoke, in order to flower, or germinate from seed. Words can be deceptive, as philosophers such as Locke, Hobbes and Wittgenstein noted.
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MOOSE: Ha! He cant even keep his metaphors straight. Cmon, Spunky. Were never going to get through to this guy. So long, Socrates.
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The Met Office figures are generated using historical weather patterns and long-term climate data.
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In an extraordinary turn of events, on July 31, the Senate ceased debate on the omnibus energy bill, S.14, and instead agreed unanimously to bring last year's energy bill back to the floor. It passed on a vote of 84 to 14. S.14 had seen slow progress, constantly interrupted by other issues such as judicial nominations, and still faced hundreds of potential amendments. The deal surfaced after majority leader Bill Frist (R.-Tenn.) proposed a cloture motion which many thought unlikely to pass. The Senate therefore faced the prospect of a genuine stalemate which would lead to no energy bill passing at all.
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UPDATE: Ive located this photo also. What looked to be a sidewalk turned out to be a big chunk of concrete. Heat sink anyone?
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During the past year, the wave of bankruptcies in solar has devastated the entire industry, while solar investors have lost almost ?25bn on the stockmarket.
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Tom Wigley, a senior scientist and Trenberth associate at the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggested in another e-mail to Mann: ?If you think that Saiers is in the greenhouse skeptics camp, then, if we can find documentary evidence of this, we could go through official channels to get him ousted? .
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Based on the last 25 years, 2013 was the fourth coldest. If we look at the average temperatures for the last 25 years, we see that they have pretty much remained constant.
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The last thing that I should be doing is working on new proxies without finishing off work in hand, but this new data is interesting and, with it in hand, Thompson et al is even more frustrating. There are some weird splices that you don??t notice at a first read, but start to stick out when you have some data to compare it to. Here??s some more curiosities. See also a previous post here.
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Schellnhuber claims he is not at all surpisedby the 15-year absence of warming. Chart source: www.drroyspencer.com .
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Let us be clear about what that would mean. The electric power supply will be interrupted when it cannot meet demand. Lights will go out. Offices will cease to function. People will freeze or swelter. Elderly people will die. If sustained, this situation will severely damage the economy. Jobs will be lost. Health will suffer. The poor will get poorer. Flows of money from America to the developing world will shrink.
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* STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 55 MPH?? RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS?? INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON?? AND WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY FROM 2 PM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
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Ethanol and Energy Security. The fundamental thermodynamic limitations of biofuels will render them little more than niche sources barring massive technological breakthroughs. These limitations undercut claims that biofuels and renewables will increase America's military or energy security.
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In popular science journalism thelatestis always the best. With all the explanations for the pause in global surface temperatures since 1997 there are now over 30 of them it is always the most recently published one that is the answer. This time its the Atlantic Ocean thats to blame. A paper published in Science says that a 30-year periodicity warms and cools the world by sequestering heat below the oceans surface and then releasing it. You dont have to look very deeply at the science to realise that, despite the headlines, no one has come up with an answer to the pause. --David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 26 August 2014
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Never fear, however, the Met Office has now rushed to the rescue. According to its computer models, any cooling caused by the lack of sunspots will only retard the worlds inexorable warming by two years, implying that by 2100 temperatures could have risen by as much as 6 degrees.
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North America and Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake Map
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Now predicting the exact date of the next Bond Event could be a bit hard. Some folks count the L.I.A. as the last one, but I think it was a Half Bond event . That would make Bond 1 the start of The Dark Ages in 540 AD and put the Bond Event Zero at 1470+540= 2010 AD or so start date. Just about the time the sun went quiet (or 2040 AD if you use a 1500 year pulse). Or right about now. Do realize that D.O. Events are warming often preceding a cold plunge. A related thing is the Heinrich Event that is similar but shows ice rafted debris when still in a cold phase. Bond Events catch the cold plunge after the warm, during interglacials. So one reasonable surmise is that the recent warming period from 1970 to now was just a D.O. event, before the Bond Event drop.
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