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1
+
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+ 00:00
3
+ 00:00
4
+ so I guess the easiest way to put it is manufacturing using 3d printers will it
5
+ 所以我想最简单的方法就是使用 3D 打印机进行制造,可以吗?
6
+ create a net positive of jobs and will it be moved back to the US great
7
+ 创造净正就业机会并将其转移回美国吗?
8
+ question it will in the US I think it is
9
+ 问题是在美国我认为是这样
10
+ it's a net positive for places that have seen manufacturing jobs leave their
11
+ 对于那些制造业岗位流失的地方来说,这是一个净利好消息
12
+ country right I would say China is probably gonna be in trouble I read a
13
+ 国家权利 我想说中国可能会遇到麻烦 我读过一篇文章
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+ blog post recently about how Foxconn is looking to automate 30 percent of their
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+ 最近的博客文章介绍了富士康如何寻求实现 30% 的自动化
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+ workforce in the next three years I think they have a million employees
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+ 未来三年的劳动力 我认为他们有 100 万员工
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+ right so that's 300,000 people that might lose their jobs due to automation
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+ 是的,有 300,000 人可能会因自动化而失业
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+ the hope obviously is that things are growing right it's not a zero-sum game
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+ 显然,我们希望事情能够顺利发展,这不是一场零和游戏
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+ and so why are they losing jobs they're gonna be replaced by robotics they send
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+ 那么为什么他们会失去工作,他们会被他们派来的机器人取代
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+ a low-cost option essentially and now robots are the low-cost option you can
25
+ 本质上是一种低成本选择,现在机器人是您可以选择的低成本选择
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+ deploy them anywhere so they're they're getting beaten at their own game
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+ 将他们部署在任何地方,这样他们就可以在自己的游戏中被击败
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+
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+ 00:01
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+ 00:01
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+ essentially and help us understand why in particular this is happening today
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+ 本质上并帮助我们理解为什么今天会发生这种情况
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+ how are the robots of today any better in terms of their technology or
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+ 当今的机器人在技术或技术方面有何进步?
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+ capabilities than the robots we've seen for a long time yeah I think there's a
36
+ 比我们长期以来看到的机器人的能力是的,我认为有一个
37
+ few trends that are converging robots are becoming a lot cheaper is so just
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+ 融合机器人变得越来越便宜的趋势很少如此
39
+ focusing on the hardware side first we actually use a collaborative robot you
40
+ 首先关注硬件方面我们实际上使用的是协作机器人
41
+ are 10 it's called and this is a $35,000 robot so depending on your perspective
42
+ 是 10 它是一个价值 35,000 美元的机器人,所以取决于你的观点
43
+ that's either really expensive or really cheap it's cheap if you're used to
44
+ 要么真的很贵,要么真的很便宜,如果你习惯的话,那就便宜了
45
+ spending money on hundred and fifty thousand dollar robots the other
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+ 花钱买十五万美元的机器人
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+ advantage of the collaborative bots is that you can just plop them into a work
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+ 协作机器人的优点是您可以将它们放入工作中
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+ environment and you don't have to spend a ton of money on safety equipment
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+ 环境,您无需在安全设备上花费大量资金
51
+ robots are really dangerous because if you're like working around them it will
52
+ 机器人真的很危险,因为如果你喜欢在它们周围工作,它就会
53
+ able to just kill you honestly if you're in the wrong place at the wrong time so
54
+ 如果你在错误的时间出现在错误的地点,他就能诚实地杀死你
55
+ these are designed to accommodate that by you know they have force sensing and
56
+ 这些设计是为了适应您知道它们具有力感应和
57
+
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+ 00:02
59
+ 00:02
60
+ stuff like that so they don't hurt people this started as a research trend in
61
+ 诸如此类的东西,这样它们就不会伤害人们,这最初是作为一种研究趋势
62
+ Boston with this company called rethink robotics and they released their first
63
+ 波士顿这家名为 rethink robots 的公司发布了他们的第一个机器人
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+ arm in like 2011 so not only did the price come too
65
+ 就像2011年那样,不仅价格也来了
66
+ but they also kind of got easier to integrate into the workplace you can
67
+ 但他们也更容易融入工作场所
68
+ actually train them now just by like taking an arm and dragging it to a place
69
+ 实际上现在就训练它们,就像拿起一只手臂并将其拖到一个地方一样
70
+ and saying like move here and like move here well go into that a little bit
71
+ 说喜欢搬到这里,喜欢搬到这里,我们稍微讨论一下
72
+ deeper because we talked about it when you were giving me the tour like I'm
73
+ 更深入,因为当你像我一样带我参观时我们讨论过它
74
+ very curious about how you actually program an arm there are so many
75
+ 非常好奇你实际上是如何对手臂进行编程的,有这么多
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+ different ways the software side of it I think is the other interesting part of
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+ 我认为软件方面的不同方式是另一个有趣的部分
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+ the industry which is pretty pretty young there's at all you can probably
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+ 这个行业还很年��,你可能可以做到
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+ talk to this even more but there's kind of like software of old with robotics
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+ 更多地谈论这个,但有一种类似于机器人技术的旧软件
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+ which is very rigid and structured and focused around safety and then there's
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+ 这是非常严格和结构化的,并且注重安全
84
+ like software of new which is all five years old or less and most of that has
85
+ 就像新软件一样,这些软件都是五年或更短的,其中大部分已经使用了
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+
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+ 00:03
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+ 00:03
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+ been developed around this one system called Ross robot operating system and
90
+ 围绕这个称为罗斯机器人操作系统的系统开发
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+ Ross is really exciting for the industry because it's very accessible you can
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+ 罗斯对这个行业来说真的很令人兴奋,因为你可以很容易地接触到它
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+ program it it's open-source but it obviously has a lot of a lot of things
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+ 对其进行编程,它是开源的,但它显然有很多很多东西
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+ to be improved before it's like quite ready for highly structured environments
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+ 在为高度结构化的环境做好准备之前需要改进
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+ where reliability is key I don't know you could probably talk a little bit
98
+ 可靠性是关键 我不知道你能不能谈谈
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+ more about what we've been planning on doing here yeah I mean the the
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+ 更多关于我们在这里计划做什么的事情是的,我的意思是
101
+ cooperative arms are really nice because even before you get to the level of we
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+ 合作手臂真的很好,因为即使在你达到我们的水平之前
103
+ need to integrate Ross to add vision or something else like that the you are 10
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+ 需要整合罗斯来增加视野或其他类似的东西,你是10
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+ is actually at the point where you just pop open a socket and send it some ascii
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+ 实际上就是你只需打开一个套接字并向其发送一些ascii
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+ commands and you have it moving around immediately so the interface there is
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+ 命令,你让它立即移动,所以那里的界面
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+ really easy and actually we've been able to treat most of our robotics projects
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+ 非常简单,实际上我们已经能够处理我们的大部分机器人项目
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+ to this point just as software projects we're definitely interested in bringing
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+ 到目前为止,就像我们绝对有兴趣引入的软件项目一样
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+ people in with robotics automation experience who can sort of handle or
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+ 具有机器人自动化经验的人可以处理或
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+
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+ 00:04
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+ 00:04
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+ think about the corner cases more and things like recovering from failure but
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+ 更多地考虑极端情况以及从失败中恢复之类的事情,但是
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+ as far as getting a prototype together it's basically just a software project
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+ 就制作原型而言,它基本上只是一个软件项目
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+ okay and so to make this more clear like how are you guys actually integrating
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+ 好的,为了让这一点更清楚,比如你们实际上是如何整合的
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+ robots because you know on the surface you're doing 3d printing and those are
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+ 机器人,因为表面上你知道你正在做 3D 打印,而这些是
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+ confined boxes so why do you need arms 3d printers are robots I'm just gonna
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+ 密闭的盒子所以你为什么需要手臂 3D 打印机是机器人我只是要
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+ say definition ok we're definitely adding adding more to
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+ 说定义好吧,我们肯定会添加更多内容
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+ the mix so I think the cool thing it's it's actually a pretty
131
+ 混合所以我认为很酷的事情它实际上是一个漂亮的
132
+ straightforward application of the arm and it's something that people have been
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+ 直接使用手臂,人们已经习惯了
134
+ using robotics for for awhile which is just your classic machine tending so
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+ 使用机器人一段时间,这只是你的经典机器,所以
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+ basically you know you have some high value piece of equipment that's churning
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+ 基本上你知道你有一些高价值的设备正在运转
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+ out these jobs for you you want to be able to run it 24/7 so you just have an
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+ 为您完成这些工作,您希望能够 24/7 运行它,所以您只需一个
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+ arm sit there and your machine is so high value that every second you can
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+ 手臂坐在那里,你的机器价值如此之高,以至于你的每一秒都可以
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+ keep it producing is worth money to your
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+ 保持生产对你来说是值得的
144
+ company we actually have a slightly more exaggerated case of that where we have
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+ 公司实际上有一个稍微夸张一点的例子
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+
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+ 00:05
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+ 00:05
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+ you know 160 3d printers so it's not one-armed tending one machine like I
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+ 你知道 160 台 3D 打印机,所以它不像我一样用一只手看管一台机器
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+ think you tend to see in the traditional deployment of this technology we have
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+ 您认为您倾向于在该技术的传统部署中看到我们有
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+ one arm tending fifty or a hundred machines so it's very valuable to us
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+ 一只手臂照顾五十或一百台机器,所以这对我们来说非常有价值
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+ essentially to be able to to do something like this with the arm okay
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+ 基本上能够用手臂做这样的事情
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+ and so why have you guys opted for the machines the 3d printers that you've
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+ 那么为什么你们选择了 3D ��印机呢?
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+ gone with we we use big about replicator twos we use them because we know they
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+ 随着我们的使用,我们使用大量的复制器二元组,我们使用它们,因为我们知道它们
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+ work and we we actually used to work at MakerBot the manufacturer of the printer
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+ 工作,我们实际上曾经在打印机制造商 MakerBot 工作
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+ and so when we were there we obviously got a lot of experience with these
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+ 所以当我们在那里时,我们显然在这些方面获得了很多经验
165
+ they're kind of older technology at this point so we're definitely looking to
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+ 目前它们是一种较旧的技术,所以我们肯定会寻求
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+ integrate the next thing pretty soon mm-hmm and because they're like so
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+ 很快就会整合下一个东西,因为它们就像这样
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+ people understand the landscape there's a whole range or 3d printers right like
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+ 人们了解情况,有全系列或 3D 打印机,就像
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+ in the past I mean when did it start like 20 years ago people started doing
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+ 过去,我的意思是从什么时候开始,就像 20 年前人们开始做的那样
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+
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+ 00:06
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+ 00:06
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+ 3d printing 83 I think was like the first like patent around 3d printing so
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+ 3D 打印 83 我认为这就像第一个围绕 3D 打印的专利,所以
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+ in the past 30 years expensive printers like $100,000
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+ 过去30年昂贵的打印机大约10万美元
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+ printers the cheapest printer was maybe like $20,000 printers have been the name
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+ 打印机 最便宜的打印机可能是 20,000 美元 打印机已经被称为
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+ of the game and these are all used for prototypes starting in around 2007 those
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+ 游戏的所有内容都用于 2007 年左右开始的原型
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+ original patents expired and people started developing desktop printers
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+ 原始专利到期,人们开始开发桌面打印机
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+ which is what really spurred the 3d printing explosion of like 2012 and fall
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+ 这才是真正刺激 3D 打印在 2012 年和秋季爆发的原因
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+ from maybe you know there was kind of this curve of like oh my god we're
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+ 也许你知道有这样一条曲线,就像天哪,我们是
190
+ really excited about 3d printing everything is going to be 3d printed
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+ 对 3D 打印感到非常兴奋,一切都将被 3D 打印
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+ then the reality set in there's a lot of work that needs to be done before we're
193
+ 那么现实情况是,在我们之前还有很多工作需要完成
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+ there so cheap printers which is the desktop printers that we use are just
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+ 有这么便宜的打印机,我们使用的桌面打印机只是
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+ low-end commoditize hardware the technology was invented you know a few
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+ 低端商品化硬件这项技术的发明你知道几个
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+ decades ago and people just figure out how to make them really cheaply in scale
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+ 几十年前,人们刚刚弄清楚如何以真正便宜的规模制造它们
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+ and that's what we're built on and you guys have opted into those cheaper
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+ 这就是我们的基础,你们选择了那些更便宜的
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+
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+ 00:07
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+ 00:07
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+ printers just so you can have more jobs running simultaneously it's it's the
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+ 打印机只是为了让您可以同时运行更多作业
207
+ Google Amazon method to reliability essentially and it sort of flips the
208
+ 谷歌亚马逊的可靠性本质上是一种颠覆
209
+ current or old style 3d Service Bureau on its head very valuable machines
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+ 当前或旧式 3D Service Bureau 是非常有价值的机器
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+ creating very valuable parts in small quantities for us it's all about scale
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+ 为我们小批量生产非常有价值的零件,这一切都与规模有关
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+ and and cheap parts so going back to robotics for a second if I'm listening
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+ 和廉价的零件,所以如果我在听的话,请回到机器人技术
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+ to this podcast today and I'm kind of interested in getting into robotics but
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+ 今天的播客,我对进入机器人技术很感兴趣,但是
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+ I don't really know where to start what should I do
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+ 我真的不知道从哪里开始我应该做什么
219
+ that's a great question there are really cheap robotic arms out there that you
220
+ 这是一个很好的问题,那里确实有便宜的机械臂,你可以
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+ would start with so like craig and i were actually talk about this earlier
222
+ 会像克雷格一样开始,实际上我之前就讨论过这个
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+ you can buy like a five axis arm which is you know servos yeah there's a few
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+ 你可以买一个五轴臂,你知道伺服系统是的,有一些
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+ different ones I actually haven't heard of that one they use servos they can
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+ 不同的,我实际上没有听说过,他们使用伺服系统,他们可以
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+
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+ 00:08
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+ 00:08
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+ lift a few hundred grams and you can just like put on your desk and have it
231
+ 举起几百克,你就可以把它放在桌子上
232
+ like you know move your pen from one point to the other you know and you can
233
+ 就像你知道的那样,将你的笔从一个点移动到另一个点,你知道你可以
234
+ actually obviously add more complex tasks on top of that so pick up one of
235
+ 实际上显然在此基础上添加了更复杂的任务,所以选择其中之一
236
+ those and then start using one of the open-source libraries out there
237
+ 这些,然后开始使用其中一个开源库
238
+ programming a robotic arm is a lot easier than maybe it was a long time ago
239
+ 对机械臂进行编程可能比很久以前容易得多
240
+ because they handle all the complicated stuff like how do you get from point A
241
+ 因为他们处理所有复杂的事情,比如如何从 A 点出发
242
+ to point B you can kind of just tell it move to these coordinates and XYZ and
243
+ 对于 B 点,您可以告诉它移动到这些坐标和 XYZ 以及
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+ then sometimes you tweak it a little bit for like how it moves there but the
245
+ 然后有时你会稍微调整一下它的移动方式,但是
246
+ details are handled right now by software that's been developed over the
247
+ 详细信息现在由开发的软件处理
248
+ last 10 20 years and when you guys are programming your larger cool or arm are
249
+ 过去 10 20 年,当你们编程时,你们的大酷或手臂是
250
+ you doing any of it in simulation are there any good software packages to be
251
+ 你在模拟中做任何事情有没有好的软件包可以
252
+ to be had there I think we we had an intern working on
253
+ 我想我们有一个实习生在那里工作
254
+
255
+ 00:09
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+ 00:09
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+ on that project over the summer and I think just at the end he discovered some
258
+ 整个夏天他都在研究这个项目,我想就在最后他发现了一些
259
+ simulation tools and yes basically you can you can get a simulation that shows
260
+ 模拟工具,是的,基本上你可以,你可以得到一个显示的模拟
261
+ your environment shows actually this is one of the built-in features to Ross
262
+ 您的环境实际上表明这是罗斯的内置功能之一
263
+ it's just a module that you can include and it'll let you simulate and just sort
264
+ 它只是一个您可以包含的模块,它可以让您模拟并进行排序
265
+ of show you exactly where the bot is or if you're running simulations where you
266
+ 向您显示机器人的确切位置,或者您是否正在运行模拟
267
+ think it is so the tooling around this I think has
268
+ 我认为围绕这个的工具我认为有
269
+ been improving and actually today is in a you know it has a lot of things that
270
+ 一直在进步,实际上今天你知道它有很多东西
271
+ we could use but it's it's in a pretty good spot today I think that's also an
272
+ 我们可以使用,但它今天处于一个非常好的位置,我认为这也是一个
273
+ excellent point to bring up because that is going to be the future of Robotics
274
+ 提出这一点非常好,因为这将是机器人技术的未来
275
+ simulating so that the robot can teach itself how to do things and basically
276
+ 进行模拟,以便机器人能够自学如何做事,基本上
277
+ humans can train robots to do more kind of like objective oriented tasks and
278
+ 人类可以训练机器人做更多类似目标导向的任务
279
+ then it can figure out the details for you our goal is to eventually build a
280
+ 然后它可以为您找出详细信息我们的目标是最终建立一个
281
+
282
+ 00:10
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+ 00:10
284
+ system for let's say assembling a product that we're making on an assembly
285
+ 比方说,用于组装我们正在组装上制造的产品的系统
286
+ line we would love an arm that is dexterous enough to replicate actions
287
+ 我们希望有一只足够灵巧的手臂来复制动作
288
+ that human hands can do and maybe just have like a video camera and have a
289
+ 人手可以做到,也许就像摄像机一样
290
+ human assemble one and then the arm will
291
+ 人类组装一个然后手臂就会
292
+ teach itself how to do that from a video that would be amazing
293
+ 通过视频教自己如何做到这一点,这将是令人惊奇的
294
+ that is what we want to build I think that requires simulation is what we're
295
+ 这就是我们想要构建的,我认为这需要模拟,这就是我们要做的
296
+ working towards interesting and does anyone manufacture today anything that
297
+ 努力变得有趣,今天有人制造任何东西吗?
298
+ resembles human dexterity in terms of you know fingers so there's there's
299
+ 类似于人类的灵巧程度,你知道手指,所以有
300
+ definitely some robot arms that are meant to like grab objects and they have
301
+ 肯定有一些机器人手臂是用来抓取物体的,而且它们有
302
+ fingers and they're slow they're not the best there's probably two two movements
303
+ 手指,它们很慢,它们不是最好的,可能有两个两个动作
304
+ when it comes to like grippers in the robotics world there's the hard you know
305
+ 当谈到机器人世界中的抓手时,你知道有什么困难
306
+ rigid like one or two AXI actuators and then there's the soft grippers so the
307
+ 像一两个 AXI 执行器一样刚性,然后是软夹具,因此
308
+
309
+ 00:11
310
+ 00:11
311
+ hard actuators you designed to do one task and like you optimize it for that
312
+ 您设计用于执行一项任务的硬执行器,并且您为此优化了它
313
+ and it can do that over and over again and it's cheap and simple this
314
+ 它可以一次又一次地做到这一点,而且便宜又简单
315
+ soft actuators which are not as mature are kind of designed to like pick up
316
+ 不太成熟的软执行器是设计来喜欢拾取的
317
+ objects that are weird like this without
318
+ 像这样奇怪的物体没有
319
+ breaking it a lot of them even work with like air sacks that just kind of like
320
+ 他们中的很多人甚至使用类似气囊的东西来打破它
321
+ closed around things and those really aren't dexterous enough for precise
322
+ 封闭在事物周围,而这些事物确实不够灵巧,无法精确地
323
+ enough I haven't seen anything yet that is like as good as a human hand
324
+ 够了,我还没见过像人手一样好的东西
325
+ just kind of weird following the line of training yourself to learn robotics
326
+ 遵循训练自己学习机器人技术的路线有点奇怪
327
+ where are the areas that you see developing right now that are super
328
+ 您认为目前正在发展的超级领域有哪些?
329
+ interesting in high value to companies where people can start contributing to
330
+ 对公司具有高价值,人们可以开始为之做出贡献
331
+ to open-source projects so if I were in undergrad or getting my Master's right
332
+ 开源项目,所以如果我是本科生或获得硕士学位
333
+ now I would be learning Ross and I would
334
+ 现在我要学习罗斯,我会
335
+ be focusing on research that was towards that training problem this is also
336
+ 专注于针对该培训问题的研究,这也是
337
+ problem that opening eye is working on and has published some cool videos and
338
+ Open Eye 正在解决这个问题,并发布了一些很酷的视频和
339
+
340
+ 00:12
341
+ 00:12
342
+ papers about if you're really just looking to get a job there's kind of two
343
+ 关于如果你真的只是想找一份工作的论文,有两种
344
+ flavors of Robotics right now there's like the research side which is what
345
+ 现在机器人技术的风格有研究方面
346
+ we're talking about and then there's the industrial automation side industrial
347
+ 我们正在谈论工业自动化方面
348
+ automation is very different industrial automation is about performing one task
349
+ 自动化是非常不同的工业自动化是关于执行一项任务
350
+ over and over again really efficiently and cost-effectively companies most
351
+ 一次又一次真正高效且最具成本效益的公司
352
+ manufacturing companies will invest hundreds of thousands of dollars
353
+ 制造企业将投资数十万美元
354
+ building a machine that just does one thing really efficiently so it's not
355
+ 建造一台只真正高效地做一件事的机器,所以它不是
356
+ flexible is the main difference to do that you need to be a mechanical
357
+ 灵活是主要的区别,你需要成为一个机械人
358
+ engineer an electrical engineer and have a little bit of software knowledge and
359
+ 工程师一名电气工程师并具有一点软件知识
360
+ then you can become an industrial automation expert and go work you know
361
+ 那么您就可以成为工业自动化专家并从事您熟悉的工作
362
+ for Toyota automating their next assembly line or Tesla may be a little
363
+ 对于丰田来说,自动化他们的下一条装配线或特斯拉可能有点
364
+ bit cooler so there there are two paths there's the research path which is
365
+ 有点酷,所以有两条路,其中一条是研究路
366
+ probably more interesting for the intellectual folks who like to think
367
+ 对于喜欢思考的知识分子来说可能更有趣
368
+
369
+ 00:13
370
+ 00:13
371
+ about problems that have been solved yet and then there's the industrial
372
+ 关于尚未解决的问题,然后是工业
373
+ automation path which is a little bit more practical a little bit more like
374
+ 自动化路径更实用一点更像
375
+ classical engineer I'm just gonna like build stuff in so Daniel what's come
376
+ 古典工程师我只是想在里面建造一些东西所以丹尼尔会发生什么
377
+ across your desk with the AI grants related to robotics yes so Justin back
378
+ 办公桌上放着与机器人相关的人工智能补助金,是的,所以贾斯汀回来了
379
+ color AI grant is a kind of decentralized research lab
380
+ 色彩人工智能资助是一种去中心化的研究实验室
381
+ where people can fill out an application in about five minutes and within a
382
+ 人们可以在大约五分钟内填写一份申请
383
+ couple of weeks we let them know for giving them a grant for what that has
384
+ 几周后,我们让他们知道我们为他们提供了一笔补助金
385
+ both cash and twenty thousand dollars in GPU training credits and we've gotten
386
+ 现金和两万美元的 GPU 培训积分,我们已经得到了
387
+ almost a thousand applications for the second round of AI grant
388
+ 第二轮人工智能资助近千份申请
389
+ many of them focus on of the ones involved in robotics they're almost all
390
+ 他们中的许多人都专注于与机器人技术有关的人,他们几乎都是
391
+ entirely in simulation the advantage to simulation is you could
392
+ 完全在模拟中模拟的优点是你可以
393
+ do this from you know your pajamas at home you don't have to buy anything and
394
+ 这样做你知道你在家穿睡衣,你不需要买任何东西
395
+ they all they're all kind of very similar to the work opening eyes trying
396
+ 他们都和睁开眼睛尝试的工作非常相似
397
+
398
+ 00:14
399
+ 00:14
400
+ to do where you want to give an agent a video feed like a human would get and
401
+ 执行您想要向代理提供像人类一样的视频源的操作
402
+ try to get it to learn to do something I you know all of the approaches are kind
403
+ 尝试让它学会做某事我你知道所有的方法都是友善的
404
+ of as far as I could tell somewhat similar to what general research is
405
+ 据我所知,与一般研究有些相似
406
+ doing so if you have to come across something incredibly different and weird
407
+ 如果您必须遇到一些非常不同和奇怪的事情,请这样做
408
+ but I'm eager to find it and help that person get their paper published if they
409
+ 但我渴望找到它并帮助那个人发表他们的论文,如果他们
410
+ have if they're listening to this podcast now yeah well what are the
411
+ 如果他们现在正在听这个播客,那么有什么
412
+ approaches people are using because I don't think it's I mean AI is obviously
413
+ 人们正在使用的方法,因为我不认为这是我的意思是人工智能显然是
414
+ of interest to many people but robotics specifically within a I like how
415
+ 很多人都感兴趣,但机器人技术尤其是我喜欢的领域
416
+ training in a simulation even works could you just walk through that for
417
+ 模拟训练甚至有效,你能简单地演练一下吗?
418
+ people who want to understand yeah and and I'm sure they're there folks
419
+ 想要理解的人是的,我相信他们就在那里
420
+ that are significantly more expert in this than me but the rough idea is even
421
+ 他们在这方面比我更专业,但粗略的想法是
422
+
423
+ 00:15
424
+ 00:15
425
+ beyond a simulation in reality which what you're doing is you set up a camera
426
+ 除了现实中的模拟之外,你所做的就是设置一个相机
427
+ and you use you know about the 2014-15 technology that we we've uncovered as a
428
+ 你使用你知道的 2014-15 技术,我们发现了作为
429
+ species which is we've managed to teach computers how to look inside images to
430
+ 我们已经成功教会计算机如何查看图像内部的物种
431
+ get a general understanding of what the agent is looking at and then you'll
432
+ 大致了解代理正在查看的内容,然后您将
433
+ traditionally you'll have you know ideally a human performance ask so you
434
+ 传统上,您会理想地了解人类的表现要求,以便您
435
+ know you're moving a ball from one hand to another or you moving a ball from one
436
+ 知道您正在将球从一只手移至另一只手,或者将球从一只手移至另一只手
437
+ point to another and then there's kind of two sinner
438
+ 指向另一个,然后就有两个罪人
439
+ here there's one we're totally on a free-form basis the robot arm will try
440
+ 这里有一个我们完全在自由形式的基础上机器人手臂会尝试的
441
+ to do the same exact thing and it's just trying to emulate what the human hand
442
+ 做同样的事情,它只是试图模仿人手的动作
443
+ saw there's another approach which is that the robot arm has some type of goal
444
+ 看到还有另一种方法,那就是机器人手臂有某种类型的目标
445
+ function that it is looking to maximize and so it kind of flails around and
446
+ 它希望最大化的功能,所以它有点摇摆不定
447
+ realizes okay like randomly moving around in space bad idea because that's
448
+ 意识到就像在太空中随机移动一样是个坏主意,因为那是
449
+
450
+ 00:16
451
+ 00:16
452
+ not increasing my goal function you know touching this ball seemingly
453
+ 没有增加我的目标函数你知道似乎触摸这个球
454
+ slightly better you know moving this ball across the coordinates of the right
455
+ 稍微好一点,你知道将这个球移动到右侧的坐标上
456
+ place even better and so in particular this is done with things that where you
457
+ 地方甚至更好,所以特别是这是通过你所在的地方完成的
458
+ could measure very clearly the objective function like unscrewing a cap from a
459
+ 可以非常清楚地测量目标函数,就像拧开盖子一样
460
+ bottle and then you basically try to match those two things together into an
461
+ 瓶子然后你基本上尝试将这两个东西匹配在一起
462
+ end-to-end system as far as I can tell this at a truly end-to-end system you
463
+ 据我所知,这是一个真正的端到端系统
464
+ know that the works in the physical world I don't think has been
465
+ 知道我认为物质世界中的作品并没有被
466
+ demonstrated by anyone yet but but I may be wrong
467
+ 已经被任何人证明过,但我可能是错的
468
+ there was one gnarly unnamed research lab that had a just a goal Maximizer
469
+ 有一个粗糙的无名研究实验室,它的目标只有一个:Maximizer
470
+ robot arm I think with a bottle cap and this thing was it wasn't even given any
471
+ 机器人手臂,我想是带着瓶盖的,这东西甚至没有给它任何东西
472
+ image priors it was just he'll try to unscrew the cap and so the arm which is
473
+ 先验图像只是他会尝试拧开盖子,因此手臂是
474
+ quite strong is flailing around trying to unscrew the cap and it's it's not
475
+ 相当强劲,正在尝试拧开盖子,但事实并非如此
476
+
477
+ 00:17
478
+ 00:17
479
+ smart it's just trying to unscrew the cap you know don't don't blame it and
480
+ 聪明,它只是想拧开盖子,你知道,不要责怪它,
481
+ then apparently the store so the server is told it grabs onto a researchers arm
482
+ 然后显然是商店,所���服务器被告知它抓住了研究人员的手臂
483
+ and it's like oh let me try to squeeze in screws okay that's not working
484
+ 就像哦,让我尝试拧入螺丝,好吧,这不起作用
485
+ I said no harm was done but I think it's an interesting example to how a I true
486
+ 我说没有造成任何伤害,但我认为这是一个有趣的例子,说明了我是如何做到这一点的
487
+ AI could be actually like not evil pretty harmless it's just doing this
488
+ 人工智能实际上可能并不邪恶,相当无害,它只是这样做
489
+ other thing where it just wants to get more paperclips and then by accident
490
+ 其他它只是想获得更多回形针然后意外地发生的事情
491
+ destroys this all yeah hopefully the goal function isn't like take over the
492
+ 摧毁这一切是的希望目标函数不像接管
493
+ world launch nuclear missiles I guess my point is even with a simple goal
494
+ 世界发射核导弹 我想我的观点是即使有一个简单的目标
495
+ function like get more energy to run faster you could accidentally kind of
496
+ 功能就像获得更多能量跑得更快,你可能会意外地有点
497
+ cause a lot of damage protect humans from themselves kill them all I mean
498
+ 造成很多伤害 保护人类免受自身伤害 杀死他们 我的意思是
499
+ who's putting in the bounds right now obviously open AI is doing ton of
500
+ 现在谁在限制显然开放人工智能正在做很多事情
501
+ research around this but yeah I mean when you hit a level of intelligence
502
+ 围绕这个进行研究,但是是的,我的意思是当你达到一定的智力水平时
503
+ maybe slightly passed unscrewing someone's arm word of Constraints people
504
+ 也许稍微通过了拧开某人的手臂的话约束人
505
+
506
+ 00:18
507
+ 00:18
508
+ are trying to create an AI right now boy it's an active area of research and
509
+ 现在正在尝试创建一个人工智能,男孩,这是一个活跃的研究领域
510
+ tweeting of Elon Musk so I mean I think there's a lot of people working on safe
511
+ 埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)发推文,所以我的意思是,我认为有很多人致力于安全
512
+ AI I'm personally pretty skeptical on the regulation approach that people keep
513
+ 人工智能 我个人对人们所采取的监管方法持怀疑态度
514
+ on proposing because it's not clear to me how you could make it global and and
515
+ 关于提议,因为我不清楚如何才能使其全球化并且
516
+ I don't think that you know all the smart people are in America I think
517
+ 我认为你不知道所有聪明人都在美国
518
+ they're spread across the world so I think regulation would just mean that
519
+ 它们遍布世界各地,所以我认为监管意味着
520
+ America's lost to the game I think there's folks working on you know kind
521
+ 美国输给了这场游戏,我想有人在为你工作,你知道吗?
522
+ of failsafe or Deadman switch is something that
523
+ 故障保护或 Deadman 开关的作用是
524
+ would stop an algorithm before it starts hitting folk hurting other humans
525
+ 会在算法开始攻击伤害其他人类之前停止它
526
+ there's people working on algorithms that are cooperative in their style so
527
+ 有人正在研究以他们的风格合作的算法,所以
528
+ open and deep mind actually published a paper on this where that the training is
529
+ 开放而深刻的思想实际上发表了一篇关于这方面的论文,其中培训是
530
+ done with a human in the loop who's actively making suggestions and the
531
+ 与一个积极提出建议的人一起完成
532
+ hypothesis I believe is that well if that would always happen at least the
533
+ 我相信如果这种情况总是发生的话那就很好了,至少
534
+
535
+ 00:19
536
+ 00:19
537
+ human could direct the AI to be like Oz bad
538
+ 人类可以指挥人工智能像奥兹国一样糟糕
539
+ let's stop hurting my arm type of thing and I'm sure there's plenty other
540
+ 让我们停止伤害我的手臂之类的事情吧,我相信还有很多其他的事情
541
+ approaches that I'm not not even aware of I am personally I haven't heard it's
542
+ 我什至不知道的方法我个人我没有听说过
543
+ it's quite fascinating when there's a area like this there's an open problem
544
+ 当像这样的领域存在一个悬而未决的问题时,这是非常有趣的
545
+ which is the AGI problem which we're all aware of we're all talking about you
546
+ 这是我们都知道的 AGI 问题,我们都在谈论你
547
+ know over dinner oh my gosh what's gonna happen and no one's really thought of a
548
+ 晚餐时就知道天哪会发生什么,但没人真正想到过
549
+ clean answer and it's kind of made me wonder if there is one at all because
550
+ 干净的答案,这让我想知道是否有一个答案,因为
551
+ it's one of those things where I feel like who's an obvious one it would have
552
+ 这是我觉得谁是显而易见的事情之一
553
+ it would have come up by now there's a lot of smart people thinking about it
554
+ 现在应该已经出现了,有很多聪明人都在考虑这个问题
555
+ and so I've kind of resigned myself to believe that from AGI you know killing
556
+ 所以我有点听天由命地相信,从 AGI 中你就知道杀戮
557
+ us it's not clear to me that there is a smart answer
558
+ 我们不清楚���否有一个明智的答案
559
+ I mean depressingly if you go online you read stories about what we do to other
560
+ 我的意思是,令人沮丧的是,如果您上网,您会读到有关我们对其他人所做的事情的故事
561
+ species we consider less intelligent right we're not that moral like there's
562
+ 我们认为智力较低的物种,我们并不像那里那样有道德
563
+ a great slash very sad reddit thread about how people abuse characters from
564
+ 一个关于人们如何滥用角色的伟大斜线,非常悲伤的 Reddit 帖子
565
+ The Sims oh no and you know we all did this you know you like build a house
566
+ 模拟人生哦不,你知道我们都做过这个你知道你喜欢建造一座房子
567
+
568
+ 00:20
569
+ 00:20
570
+ put him in the pool and then you take out the yeah the ladder and we all
571
+ 把他放进游泳池然后你拿出梯子然后我们都
572
+ thought it was hilarious but you think about it and you're like well that's
573
+ 觉得这很搞笑,但你仔细想想,你会觉得这就是
574
+ kind of the same thing if you superimpose it onto a super smart AI to
575
+ 如果你把它叠加到一个超级智能的人工智能上,就会得到同样的结果
576
+ us obviously we crush ants without giving it another thought I am skeptical
577
+ 显然,我们压死了蚂蚁,没有再想一想,我对此表示怀疑
578
+ that we will find a way to fix that I am
579
+ 我们会找到一种方法来解决我的问题
580
+ optimistic that that that's not gonna be
581
+ 乐观地认为那不会是这样
582
+ what kills us as a species though okay I because I think there are far more
583
+ 是什么杀死了我们作为一个物种,好吧,我因为我认为还有更多
584
+ threatening things that are closer for example the use of AI by a human to
585
+ 威胁更接近的事物,例如人类使用人工智能
586
+ create some you know some type of nefarious damage so what's what's
587
+ 制造一些你知道的某种类型的邪恶损害,那是什么
588
+ happening is there's this AI hype right now and so more and more industries are
589
+ 现在正在发生这样的人工智能炒作,所以越来越多的行业正在
590
+ moving their infrastructure to kind of non-deterministic machine learning based
591
+ 将他们的基础设施转移到基于非确定性机器学习的
592
+ stuff cars are going to be using machine learning to drive the electricity grid
593
+ 汽车将使用机器学习来驱动电网
594
+ will manage itself using machine learning and so as a result it will be
595
+ 将使用机器学习进行自我管理,因此它将是
596
+ more susceptible to attacks from that same thing as opposed to being manned by
597
+ 更容易受到同一事物的攻击,而不是由
598
+ a human and so the power grid is now constantly being regulated by an
599
+ 人类,因此电网现在不断受到
600
+ algorithm instead of a human could that algorithm be interrupted by another
601
+ 算法而不是人类该算法是否会被另一个算法打断
602
+
603
+ 00:21
604
+ 00:21
605
+ smarter algorithm in a way that would been easier than to interrupt the human
606
+ 更智能的算法,比打断人类更容易
607
+ eye I think so so I suspect war will actually not be
608
+ 眼睛我这么认为所以我怀疑战争实际上不会
609
+ from a GI war and damage and carnage will be from weaponized dumb AI yeah
610
+ 来自大兵战争,伤害和屠杀将来自武器化的愚蠢人工智能 是的
611
+ well to kind of like concretely connect the dots
612
+ 有点像具体连接点
613
+ your robots currently right now are fixed to the ground but they're going to
614
+ 您的机器人目前固定在地面上,但它们将会
615
+ start moving at some point right yeah they're gonna be put on mobile bases not
616
+ 在某个时刻开始移动,是的,他们将被放置在移动基地上,而不是
617
+ dissimilar from like a table azad warehouse right and so have you begun
618
+ 与像桌子一样的仓库不同,所以你开始了吗
619
+ that training process no we've gotten a few demos but the
620
+ 培训过程我们已经得到了一些演示,但是
621
+ hardware is actually really early when Amazon acquired Kiva they just took that
622
+ 硬件实际上很早,当亚马逊收购 Kiva 时,他们就拿走了它
623
+ out of the market and so right around now is when people are starting to
624
+ 退出市场,所以现在人们开始
625
+ release mobile bases again but they're all in beta I think there are a few that
626
+ 再次发布移动基地,但它们都处于测试阶段,我认为有一些
627
+ you can actually buy so no we haven't gotten started on the moving problem wow
628
+ 你实际上可以购买,所以不,我们还没有开始解决搬家问题哇
629
+ so amazon's acquisition of Kiva you think this kind of slowdown innovation
630
+ 所以亚马逊收购 Kiva 你认为这种放缓创新
631
+
632
+ 00:22
633
+ 00:22
634
+ like five years Wow something like that it took a long time for everyone else to
635
+ 大约五年了 哇这样的事情其他人花了很长时间才
636
+ catch up yeah what about the the automated can I mean have you been to a
637
+ 赶上是的,自动化怎么样?我的意思是你去过吗?
638
+ shipping container port ever I grew up in Long Beach California there's a
639
+ 我在加州长滩长大的集装箱港口
640
+ massive yeah but I haven't like got the tour
641
+ 很大,是的,但我不喜欢参加这次巡演
642
+ there are basically trailers that are autonomous I wonder I don't know who is
643
+ 基本上都有自动驾驶的拖车 我想知道我不知道是谁
644
+ producing those but I don't think it was Cuban no keep it just does warehouse
645
+ 生产这些,但我不认为这是古巴的,没有保留,它只是做仓库
646
+ robot yeah that's what I thought which is all like they can play picking pack
647
+ 机器人 是的,这就是我的想法,就像他们可以玩拾取包一样
648
+ and stuff like that okay I think that's also the the shipyard example is an
649
+ 诸如此类的事情,好吧,我认为这也是造船厂的例子
650
+ interesting it's an interesting example that shows how robotics scale in a way
651
+ 有趣的是,这是一个有趣的例子,展示了机器人技术如何以某种方式扩展
652
+ that humans don't you could build a little mini shipping yard and train it
653
+ 人类不知道,你可以建造一个小型的小型船场并训练它
654
+ on that or do it digitally right - it totally is a simulation and then roll it
655
+ 对此或者以数字方式进行 - 这完全是一个模拟,然后滚动它
656
+ out and start moving around like multi-ton objects very quickly yeah
657
+ 出去并开始像数吨重的物体一样快速移动是的
658
+ that's just a process that doesn't scale like it scales weight more efficiently
659
+ 这只是一个不能像衡量体重那样更有效地扩展的过程
660
+ than a human process does which is a little bit scary what challenges do you
661
+ 比人类流程做的事情有点可怕,你面临什么挑战
662
+
663
+ 00:23
664
+ 00:23
665
+ guys see if you wanted to scale to like a hundred thousand square-foot warehouse
666
+ 伙计们看看你是否想扩大到十万平方英尺的仓库
667
+ you know for us it's actually so right now what we're building is kind of like
668
+ 你知道对我们来说实际上现在我们正在构建的东西有点像
669
+ this footprint unit Factory which has 160 printers and we'll have like two
670
+ 这个占地单位工厂有 160 台打印机,我们将有大约两台
671
+ arms moving around doing machine tending and then as parts come off of the
672
+ 手臂四处移动,进行机器维护,然后当零件从机器上脱落时
673
+ printers they have to be post-process QC packed and shipped out I think when we
674
+ 打印机,他们必须经过后处理质量控制包装并发货,我想当我们
675
+ automate each of those steps they each scale very easily most of the challenges
676
+ 自动化每个步骤,每个步骤都可以轻松应对大多数挑战
677
+ getting the first part of it automated everything beyond that is kind of like
678
+ 让第一部分自动化,除此之外的一切都有点像
679
+ can you buy the hardware quickly enough and traditional software scaling issues
680
+ 您能否足够快地购买硬件以及传统软件的扩展问题
681
+ many of which are solved so going from a 1,800 square foot factory to a hundred
682
+ 其中许多问题都得到了解决,因此从 1,800 平方英尺的工厂到 100 平方英尺的工厂
683
+ thousand square foot Factory is kind of like how many more arms do we need and
684
+ 千平方英尺的工厂有点像我们还需要多少手臂
685
+ like how many AWS servers do we need to send up it's an engineering problem it
686
+ 比如我们需要发送多少台 AWS 服务器,这是一个工程问题
687
+
688
+ 00:24
689
+ 00:24
690
+ actually doesn't seem that hard dude as CTO I mean so yeah I think there are
691
+ 作为首席技术官,实际上看起来并不那么难,我的意思是,是的,我认为有
692
+ probably economies of scale that we could realize in a hundred thousand
693
+ 可能我们可以通过十万个来实现规模经济
694
+ square foot space that we obviously can't get here but yeah I mean the easy
695
+ 平方英尺的空间,我们显然无法到达这里,但是是的,我的意思是简单
696
+ answer to scaling would just be pound this footprint out as many times as we
697
+ 缩放的答案就是将这个足迹重复我们的次数
698
+ can into that hundred thousand square foot space and we know basically like we
699
+ 可以进入那十万平方英尺的空间,我们基本上知道就像我们一样
700
+ will keep costs basically where they are to
701
+ 将把成本基本控制在原来的水平
702
+ but you know then we can slowly merge cells reorganize as we need to so this
703
+ 但你知道我们可以根据需要慢慢合并单元格重组
704
+ is sort of our worst case scenario right now but we could in theory pop these
705
+ 这是我们现在最坏的情况,但理论上我们可以弹出这些
706
+ open across the country if we needed to hmm it's very different from scaling a
707
+ 如果我们需要的话,在全国范围内开放 嗯,这与扩大规模有很大不同
708
+ factory traditionally and this is a contentious top topic but scaling a
709
+ 传统上的工厂,这是一个有争议的热门话题,但扩展
710
+ factory of robots is so much easier than scaling factory of people hiring people
711
+ 机器人工厂比扩大雇用人员的工厂容易得多
712
+ is difficult as everyone knows hiring people who are good hiring people who
713
+ 是很困难的,因为每个人都知道雇佣优秀的人雇佣优秀的人
714
+
715
+ 00:25
716
+ 00:25
717
+ you know show up to work on time etc hiring people in a different country if
718
+ 你知道准时上班等在不同国家雇用人员,如果
719
+ your company doesn't speak that language it's difficult you know requires an
720
+ 你的公司不会说这种语言,这很难,你知道需要一个
721
+ on-the-ground expert in the theoretical fully automated Factory case none of
722
+ 理论全自动化工厂案例的实地专家 没有
723
+ those problems are real hmm if you can run a hundred thousand square foot
724
+ 如果你能经营十万平方英尺的话,这些问题都是真实存在的
725
+ factory or a hundred thousand machine factory with 200 people it's a lot
726
+ 工厂或者十万个机械厂有200人就很多了
727
+ easier than like a thousand people running a factory so that's I mean kind
728
+ 比一千个人经营一家工厂容易,所以我的意思是善良
729
+ of the idea that Voodoo's built on is it'll be a lot easier to scale as we
730
+ Voodoo 的构建理念是,随着我们的发展,它会更容易扩展
731
+ build out this footprint right but you're also factoring in being really
732
+ 正确地构建这个足迹,但你也要考虑到真正的
733
+ close to many people who are interested in manufacturing right I heard on one
734
+ 接近许多对制造感兴趣的人 我听说过
735
+ podcast that you offer like pickup for certain folks yeah is it still the case
736
+ 您为某些人提供的播客,例如接送是的,情况仍然如此
737
+ yeah I'll be worried Brooklyn we're right outside up ahead okay so do you have a
738
+ 是的,我会担心布鲁克林,我们就在前面,好吧,你有吗
739
+ vision of just you know many factories or would you rather one giant one we
740
+ 愿景只是您知道许多工厂,还是您希望我们拥有一家大型工厂
741
+ think of it kind of like server farms it's semi local so maybe there's not a
742
+ 认为它有点像服务器群,它是半本地的,所以也许没有
743
+
744
+ 00:26
745
+ 00:26
746
+ server from right down the street from everyone in the world but there might be
747
+ 服务器来自世界上每个人的街道,但可能有
748
+ one within one day delivery distance yeah or potentially in pickup distance
749
+ 一日内送货距离是的或可能在取货距离内
750
+ for for larger customers it's actually really common in manufacturing for a
751
+ 对于较大的客户来说,这实际上在制造业中很常见
752
+ company like Toyota to contract with somebody who's gonna make you know a sub
753
+ 像丰田这样的公司会与能让你了解潜艇的人签订合同
754
+ component of one of their cars and then require them to set up a factory right
755
+ 他们的一辆汽车的组件,然后要求他们建立工厂权利
756
+ next to the Toyota factory with like a conveyor belt literally moving the parts
757
+ 靠近丰田工厂,就像传送带一样移动零件
758
+ from one to the other it's kind of a crazy thing that they can just say we're
759
+ 从一个到另一个,他们可以说我们是,这是一件疯狂的事情
760
+ gonna work together but you're gonna build this factory right next to us
761
+ 我们会一起工作,但你要在我们旁边建这个工厂
762
+ we're not going to build it you are that's also a lot easier with a robotic
763
+ 我们不会建造它,你是,使用机器人也容易得多
764
+ Factory you know and you can you can customize it so it's just the right size
765
+ 您知道的工厂,您可以定制它,使其尺寸合适
766
+ on the topic of Toyota how do you kind of see the future of the materials that
767
+ 关于丰田的话题,您如何看待这种材料的未来
768
+ you can use in 3d printing evolving so today I think when people think of 3d
769
+ 你可以在不断发展的 3D 打印中使用,所以今天我认为当人们想到 3D 时
770
+
771
+ 00:27
772
+ 00:27
773
+ printing they think of the like basically little plastic parts are you
774
+ 印刷他们认为基本上是小塑料部件,你是吗
775
+ always going to be stuck with that or is there a strategy where that kind of
776
+ 总是会被困住,或者是否有一种策略可以使这种情况
777
+ changes in expands so our vision for Vudu is definitely to move past just 3d
778
+ 变化不断扩大,因此我们对 Vudu 的愿景肯定是超越 3d
779
+ printing but even within 3d printing you know it's been around since the 80s I
780
+ 打印,但即使在 3D 打印中,你也知道它自 80 年代以来就已经存在了
781
+ think Boeing is 3d printing titanium parts for all of their planes now so 3d
782
+ 认为波音现在正在为他们所有的飞机 3d 打印钛零件,所以 3d
783
+ printing as a technology if you consider the entire range is a very capable
784
+ 如果您认为整个系列都非常强大,那么印刷作为一种技术
785
+ technology and you know generally technology trickles down to the low end
786
+ 技术,你知道技术通常会流向低端
787
+ that's what we'll see here so Vudu is building an infrastructure for
788
+ 这就是我们将在这里看到的内容,因此 Vudu 正在构建基础设施
789
+ onboarding digital manufacturing technologies so it doesn't matter if
790
+ 采用数字化制造技术,因此无论是否
791
+ it's 3d printing if it's capable of doing plastic metal whatever you know
792
+ 如果它能够打印出你所知道的塑料金属,那么它就是 3D 打印
793
+ we're interested in anything that takes a digital file as input and outputs a
794
+ 我们对任何以数字文件作为输入并输出的东西感兴趣
795
+ physical object at the end so that's how we're going to handle the quality and
796
+ 最后是物理对象,这就是我们如何处理质量和
797
+
798
+ 00:28
799
+ 00:28
800
+ material questions that come up we got a question from from Twitter about the
801
+ 出现的重大问题我们从 Twitter 收到了一个关于
802
+ future of 3d printing and this point is probably the biggest
803
+ 3D打印的未来,这一点可能是最大的
804
+ barrier to like a 3d printer being in everyone's home 3d printers just right
805
+ 像 3D 打印机一样进入每个家庭的障碍 3D 打印机恰到好处
806
+ now don't have the material capabilities or the multi-material capabilities to
807
+ 现在不具备材料能力或多材料能力
808
+ produce most of the objects in your house right most things are a
809
+ 生产你家里的大部分物品,大多数东西都是
810
+ combination of plastic components multi-step plastic components electrical
811
+ 塑料部件的组合 多步塑料部件 电气
812
+ you know PCBs wiring soldering batteries like all of this stuff which is
813
+ 你知道 PCB 接线焊接电池就像所有这些东西
814
+ currently assembled it seems like people don't think about when they say the
815
+ 目前组装的似乎人们在说的时候没有想到
816
+ future is gonna be a 3d printer in my house making my stuff maybe like 1% of
817
+ 未来我家里会有一台 3D 打印机,可以打印我的东西 1%
818
+ the objects you own could be made by a 3d printer right now because they're
819
+ 您拥有的物品现在可以通过 3D 打印机制作,因为它们是
820
+ just a single material so I think eventually we're gonna hit that
821
+ 只是一种材料,所以我想最终我们会实现这一点
822
+ future where it's like the Star Trek replicator mm-hmm
823
+ 未来就像星际迷航复制机一样嗯嗯
824
+ it's not gonna happen with any of the current technologies out there until
825
+ 现有的任何技术都不会发生这种情况,直到
826
+
827
+ 00:29
828
+ 00:29
829
+ then digital manufacturing is still a thing
830
+ 那么数字化制造仍然是一件事
831
+ digital file the physical product but it's gonna be a multi-step process which
832
+ 对物理产品进行数字归档,但这将是一个多步骤的过程
833
+ I think benefits from economies of scale from a centralized facility what verse
834
+ 我认为从集中设施的规模经济中获益是什么?
835
+ yeah what about even just literal objects kill just a plastic on this
836
+ 是的,即使只是字面上的物体也只会杀死上面的塑料呢
837
+ chair yeah what is the time frame look like to where we could just have 3d
838
+ 椅子 是的,我们可以拥有 3d 的时间范围是多少
839
+ printers making at least this part for us yeah
840
+ 打印机至少为我们制造这部分是的
841
+ 3d printing right now is not super cost-effective for big stuff meaning big
842
+ 目前 3D 打印对于意义重大的大东西来说并不是超级划算
843
+ meeting anything larger than like a loaf of bread okay when you get bigger than
844
+ 遇到任何比一条面包更大的东西,当你变得比
845
+ that it just gets prohibitively expensive and
846
+ 它只是变得昂贵得令人望而却步
847
+ so printing that chair might cost a few hundred dollars there are big printers
848
+ 所以打印那把椅子可能要花几百美元,有大型打印机
849
+ out there so people are definitely working on that problem but you kinda
850
+ 所以人们肯定正在解决这个问题,但你有点
851
+ have to balance quality with speed and so I think the next wave of 3d printed
852
+ 必须平衡质量和速度,所以我认为下一波 3D 打印
853
+ parts in the world and digital manufactured parts are all gonna be like
854
+ 世界上的零件和数字制造的零件都会像
855
+
856
+ 00:30
857
+ 00:30
858
+ consumer packaged goods like smaller things that fit kind of again and just
859
+ 消费包装商品,例如可以再次安装的较小物品
860
+ like loaf of bread size shape yeah you're not gonna start printing tables
861
+ 就像一条面包的大小形状是的,你不会开始打印表格
862
+ and houses and stuff without significant improvements of the technology okay and
863
+ 以及房屋和东西,如果技术没有显着改进,还可以
864
+ it's just expensive because it's a large amount of plastic it really comes down
865
+ 只是价格昂贵,因为它含有大量塑料,而且确实会下降
866
+ to the extrusion rate of the Machine so let's say that that share is either
867
+ 到机器的挤出率,所以我们可以说该份额是
868
+ injection molded or roto molded different moulding technologies you have
869
+ 您拥有的注塑或滚塑不同的成型技术
870
+ like a physical mold which costs probably tens of thousands of dollars to
871
+ 就像一个物理模具,可能要花费数万美元
872
+ make and you have a machine that very rapidly injects hot plastic into it and
873
+ 制造并且你有一台机器可以非常快速地将热塑料注入其中并且
874
+ so the the rate of injection of those machines is probably like a thousand
875
+ 所以这些机器的注射速度可能是一千
876
+ times faster than your average 3d printer so based on that fact alone you
877
+ 比普通 3D 打印机快几倍,因此仅根据这一事实,您就可以
878
+ know you can just take the cost of the Machine time and the injection rate and
879
+ 知道您可以只考虑机器时间和注射速率的成本
880
+ approximate how much it costs to build something and large objects just are too
881
+ 估算建造某物的成本,大型物体也太贵了
882
+
883
+ 00:31
884
+ 00:31
885
+ expensive the ratios don't work yet so there's one handful of questions
886
+ 价格昂贵,比率还不起作用,所以有一些问题
887
+ from Twitter one is about IP in China you remember this one yeah so Wyatt
888
+ 来自 Twitter 的一篇是关于中国知识产权的,你还记得这个,所以 Wyatt
889
+ Sanders asked how do you deal with intellectual property in China how hard
890
+ 桑德斯问你在中国处理知识产权问题有多难
891
+ is it finding support for new hardware as opposed to software I'm trying to
892
+ 它是否正在寻找对新硬件的支持,而不是我正在尝试的软件
893
+ understand the question exactly I read it and I have a few questions about the
894
+ 完全理解这个问题我读过它并且我有一些关于
895
+ question but I'll do my best since this is a in person question so honestly I
896
+ 问题,但我会尽力而为,因为这是一个面对面的问题,所以老实说,我
897
+ you know I think with IP unless you're incredibly restrictive about like what
898
+ 你知道我认为知识产权除非你对什么有非常严格的限制
899
+ gets out basically anything that isn't a well guarded trade secret somebody else
900
+ 基本上泄露了其他人没有严格保护的商业秘密的任何内容
901
+ will have the most interesting I guess story I heard is when you're
902
+ 我想我听到的最有趣的故事就是当你
903
+ manufacturing in China IP is thought about very differently than it is here I
904
+ 中国对制造业知识产权的看法与这里截然不同
905
+
906
+ 00:32
907
+ 00:32
908
+ think there's kind of this belief that like things are just shared and so
909
+ 认为有一种信念,即类似的事物只是共享的,所以
910
+ that's why you like everybody gets the sneak peek of an iPhone because in
911
+ 这就是为什么你喜欢每个人都抢先体验一下 iPhone,因为
912
+ reality culturally let that culturally it's not a big as big of a deal to just
913
+ 现实文化上让文化上这并不是什么大不了的事
914
+ kind of like share stuff I feel like so it's very different in China than it is
915
+ 有点像分享我喜欢的东西,所以这与中国的情况有很大不同
916
+ in the u.s. so if you're getting something made in China I wouldn't
917
+ 在美国。所以如果你要买中国制造的东西我不会
918
+ really count on IP being a big factor and even if you can keep something
919
+ 真正依靠知识产权作为一个重要因素,即使你可以保留一些东西
920
+ totally under wraps like let's say you're building a top-of-the-line drone
921
+ 完全保密,就像假设您正在建造一架顶级无人机
922
+ or something once this out of the market somebody in
923
+ 或者一旦这个东西退出市场,有人在
924
+ China will buy one and then in like two or three months just replicate it mm-hmm
925
+ 中国会购买一个,然后在两三个月内复制它,嗯嗯
926
+ it's not very difficult for them to do that with hardware hardware is becoming
927
+ 对他们来说,用硬件做到这一点并不难 硬件正在变得
928
+ easier and easier to replicate over time and so it's getting closer to software
929
+ 随着时间的推移,复制变得越来越容易,因此它越来越接近软件
930
+ so I think hardware IP will actually work a little bit more like software IP
931
+ 所以我认为硬件IP实际上会更像软件IP
932
+
933
+ 00:33
934
+ 00:33
935
+ which is difficult to protect so actually an interesting to talk about
936
+ 这是很难保护的,所以实际上是一个有趣的话题
937
+ voodoo again a little bit and where we fit into this one of the benefits of
938
+ 再次巫毒一点,我们融入其中的好处之一
939
+ digital manufacturing is that you're not rebuilding your molds all the time when
940
+ 数字化制造的特点是您不必一直重建模具
941
+ your iterating on your product so actually
942
+ 实际上你对你的产品进行了迭代
943
+ the avenue for manufacturing companies protect protecting their products could
944
+ 制造公司保护其产品的途径可以
945
+ be just iterating more rapidly and using companies like us to really stay ahead
946
+ 只是更快地迭代并利用像我们这样的公司来真正保持领先地位
947
+ of the market mm-hmm how did Apple think about it
948
+ 市场的嗯嗯苹果是怎么想的
949
+ you'd have to ask them no comment all right next question
950
+ 你必须问他们下一个问题不要发表评论
951
+ Enrique asks I don't know if you would even have an answer to this but um 3d
952
+ 恩里克问我不知道你是否能回答这个问题,但是 3d
953
+ printed solar panels have you heard of this no I didn't even see that question
954
+ 印刷太阳能电池板 你听说过这个吗 不 我什至没有看到这个问题
955
+ came in on Facebook man I don't know anything about to do that yes yeah what
956
+ 进来了 Facebook 伙计,我不知道该怎么做 是的,什么
957
+ do we have any context for this question the context is and I'm adding a word
958
+ 对于这个问题我们有任何背景吗?背景是,我要添加一个词
959
+
960
+ 00:34
961
+ 00:34
962
+ here what has been the progress regarding 3d solar panels which I assume
963
+ 我认为 3D 太阳能电池板的进展是什么
964
+ means 3d printed solar panels got it my guess is middle a lot of like
965
+ 意味着 3D 打印太阳能电池板得到了它,我猜是中间很多像
966
+ processes that you use in making chips or dealing with silicon wafers have the
967
+ 您在制造芯片或处理硅晶圆时使用的工艺具有
968
+ same names as 3d printing processes so there's like stereo lithography is a
969
+ 与 3D 打印工艺同名,所以立体光刻是一种
970
+ common way of getting parts 3d printed basically that just means you have like
971
+ 获得 3D 打印零件的常见方法基本上意味着您有喜欢的
972
+ a laser that's itching some pattern into
973
+ 激光在其中刻画出一些图案
974
+ something so I can imagine a world where you can make solar panels with three
975
+ 所以我可以想象一个世界,你可以用三个来制造太阳能电池板
976
+ versions but I actually don't know anything about it all right next
977
+ 版本,但我实际上不知道接下来的一切
978
+ question then bit-bit asks what will 3d printing will it ever be incorporated
979
+ 那么 bit-bit 会问 3D 打印会被纳入什么领域吗?
980
+ into our educational system the other way the way other technologies have
981
+ 以其他技术的方式进入我们的教育系统
982
+ definitely that's a pretty simple answer yeah I mean I actually the first time I
983
+ 这绝对是一个非常简单的答案是的,我的意思是我实际上第一次
984
+ used a 3d printer was in high school oh really
985
+ 高中时用过3D打印机哦,真的
986
+ yeah to go to high school I went to this
987
+ 是的,为了上高中,我去了这个
988
+
989
+ 00:35
990
+ 00:35
991
+ really nerdy school in California called the California Academy of math and
992
+ 加州有一所非常书呆子的学校,叫做加州数学学院
993
+ science it was a public school but they got sponsorships from like engineering
994
+ 科学这是一所公立学校,但他们得到了工程等的赞助
995
+ companies to help us get things like 3d printers so yeah I think it's definitely
996
+ 公司帮助我们获得 3D 打印机之类的东西,所以是的,我认为这绝对是
997
+ moving in that direction and that when I was in high school that the $2,000
998
+ 朝着这个方向前进,当我上高中时,2,000 美元
999
+ printer didn't exist so it was a big deal to have this like $30,000 machine
1000
+ 打印机还不存在,所以拥有一台价值 30,000 美元的机器是一件大事
1001
+ in the you know that we could use hmm so machines are cheap enough there they
1002
+ 你知道我们可以使用嗯,所以那里的机器足够便宜
1003
+ cost the same amount as a computer it'll just follow the same trend like
1004
+ 成本与计算机相同,它只会遵循相同的趋势,例如
1005
+ computers started ending up in classrooms in the 90s right yeah so if
1006
+ 计算机在 90 年代开始进入教室,是的,所以如果
1007
+ today is the 90s of computers in 20 years right I think kids will probably
1008
+ 今天是 20 年后计算机的 90 年代,我想孩子们可能会
1009
+ using them to make all sorts of things okay I did have a couple questions about
1010
+ 用它们来做各种各样的事情我确实有几个问题
1011
+ just your experience in YC were you guys in this group reading Daniels group yes
1012
+ 只是你在 YC 的经历 你们这个小组里的人读过丹尼尔斯小组吗 是的
1013
+
1014
+ 00:36
1015
+ 00:36
1016
+ yeah yes we were now I can connect the dots we can talk about Daniel off the
1017
+ 是的,是的,我们现在可以把这些点联系起来,我们可以谈论丹尼尔
1018
+ record but what was your uh what was your experience like it well I see being
1019
+ 记录一下,但是你的经历是什么,我认为是这样的
1020
+ a hardware company do you find it was any different ah yes I mean we're we're
1021
+ 一家硬件公司,你发现它有什么不同吗?是的,我的意思是我们是我们是
1022
+ not quite a hardware company is the other side of it so we I think before we
1023
+ 另一面不完全是一家硬件公司,所以我们我认为在我们之前
1024
+ went to IC we didn't quite know how to position ourselves with investors or
1025
+ 去了 IC,我们不太知道如何向投资者定位自己,或者
1026
+ other people because we're not a hardware company we're not a software
1027
+ 其他人,因为我们不是一家硬件公司,我们也不是一家软件公司
1028
+ company exclusively so I think being in YC and talking to Daniel and talking to
1029
+ 公司独家所以我认为在 YC 并与 Daniel 交谈并与
1030
+ Sam basically helped us find ourselves as a robotics company that's that's
1031
+ 山姆基本上帮助我们找到了一家机器人公司,就是这样
1032
+ really what it comes down to which is the intersection of hardware and
1033
+ 真正归结为硬件和技术的交集
1034
+ software and if we succeed in the future we will have contributed significant
1035
+ 软件,如果我们在未来取得成功,我们将做出重大贡献
1036
+ gains to the world of robotics and automation in manufacturing hmm do you
1037
+ 制造领域的机��人和自动化世界的收益嗯,你呢
1038
+
1039
+ 00:37
1040
+ 00:37
1041
+ remember what they were like in the beginning yeah grabbing pretty pretty
1042
+ 还记得他们一开始的样子是的,抓得很漂亮
1043
+ formidable I think they were more formidable by the end though and I think
1044
+ 强大我认为他们到最后更强大而且我认为
1045
+ why see the hope is that Y C gives founders a lot of things but one that
1046
+ 为什么看到希望是 Y C 为创始人提供了很多东西,但其中一个
1047
+ often people discount because it's I think a little bit hard to capture in a
1048
+ 人们经常打折,因为我认为在一个例子中捕捉到这一点有点困难
1049
+ couple of bullet points you can read on the Internet is it really changes
1050
+ 您可以在互联网上阅读的几个要点是否真的发生了变化
1051
+ founders mentality and the way they think of just how big their company
1052
+ 创始人的心态以及他们对公司规模的看法
1053
+ could be and I'm not saying that you guys were Myka when you came in you were
1054
+ 可能是,我并不是说你们进来时就是 Myka
1055
+ already great you had already had a great business but I have found that
1056
+ 已经很棒了,你的生意已经很棒了,但我发现
1057
+ with the the Voodoo founders and and a lot of other folks it it hopefully takes
1058
+ 与 Voodoo 创始人和许多其他人一起,希望这需要
1059
+ it to the next in terms of figuring out how to position
1060
+ 下一步是弄清楚如何定位
1061
+ their company when talking to investors internally and frankly to themselves
1062
+ 他们的公司在内部与投资者交谈并坦白地自言自语时
1063
+ hmm um a question we get often times is uh what is it like being a solo founder
1064
+ 嗯嗯,我们经常遇到的一个问题是,作为一名独立创始人是什么感觉
1065
+ and why I see you guys are kind of on the opposite end of the spectrum with
1066
+ 以及为什么我看到你们有点处于光谱的另一端
1067
+ four correct correct what's that experience been like uh we had a it was
1068
+ 四个 正确 正确 那段经历是怎样的 呃我们有过一次
1069
+
1070
+ 00:38
1071
+ 00:38
1072
+ actually really helpful for us because we're based in New York and ycs
1073
+ 实际上对我们很有帮助,因为我们的总部位于纽约和ycs
1074
+ obviously in California we kind of had this dilemma because we can't just move
1075
+ 显然,在加利福尼亚州,我们遇到了这种困境,因为我们不能只是搬家
1076
+ the whole company there when we get into
1077
+ 当我们进入时整个公司都在那里
1078
+ IC we have a factory we've got people so it was really helpful to kind of break
1079
+ IC,我们有一家工厂,我们有员工,所以这对打破僵局真的很有帮助
1080
+ up going to YC on different weeks so that we could focus on like building
1081
+ 在不同的星期去YC,这样我们就可以专注于建设
1082
+ things here but also make sure that somebody was there like talking to
1083
+ 这里的东西,但也要确保有人在那里,比如与人交谈
1084
+ partners getting advice building the company otherwise you know I think our
1085
+ 合作伙伴寻求建设公司的建议,否则你知道我认为我们
1086
+ founding story kind of goes back to the fact that we've known each other for a
1087
+ 创立故事可以追溯到我们相识很久的事实
1088
+ long time we founded a previous company together
1089
+ 很长一段时间我们一起创立了以前的公司
1090
+ sold that company and the typical pitfalls that you would find with a
1091
+ 出售该公司以及您会发现的典型陷阱
1092
+ four-person team we've been lucky to avoid usually with four people I'd
1093
+ 我们很幸运能够避免四人团队,通常我会和四个人一起
1094
+ imagine you run into like serious issues of like who owns what or you know two
1095
+ 想象一下你遇到了像谁拥有什么或者你认识两个这样的严重问题
1096
+ people might not get a longer that there could be so many different problems
1097
+ 人们可能不会花更长的时间来了解可能存在这么多不同的问题
1098
+
1099
+ 00:39
1100
+ 00:39
1101
+ because your your graph gets bigger we are used to working together so luckily
1102
+ 因为你的图表变得更大,所以幸运的是我们习惯了一起工作
1103
+ we haven't had any any issues then Oliver maybe you can confer no i would
1104
+ 我们没有任何问题那么奥利弗也许你可以商量不我会
1105
+ just agree with what max is saying i think it's important to sort of carve
1106
+ 只是同意麦克斯的说法,我认为雕刻很重要
1107
+ out roles for everybody and making sure that people are getting input to the
1108
+ 为每个人分配角色,并确保人们能够获得意见
1109
+ things that they're really bringing value to but at a certain point you know
1110
+ 他们真正带来价值的事情,但在某个时刻你知道
1111
+ not everybody is involved with every decision day to day right on a large
1112
+ 并非每个人都参与日常决策
1113
+ founding team I think that sometimes hurts feelings or rubs people the wrong
1114
+ 创始团队 我认为有时会伤害感情或惹恼别人
1115
+ way but for us I think we've done a pretty good job of defining what
1116
+ 方式,但对我们来说,我认为我们在定义什么方面做得很好
1117
+ everyone's role is on the team and making the hard decisions together but
1118
+ 每个人的角色都是团队中的一员,共同做出艰难的决定,但是
1119
+ also making sure that you know we're not taking things personally when hey
1120
+ 还要确保你知道我们不会把事情当成是针对你个人的,嘿
1121
+ somebody had a meeting and a decision was made
1122
+ 有人开会并做出决定
1123
+ it's it's I think everybody buys into the idea that we're a team and we're
1124
+ 我认为每个人都相信我们是一个团队,而且我们
1125
+ doing this together and everybody's got a part to play there even if it's not
1126
+ 一起做这件事,每个人都有自己的一份工作,即使不是
1127
+
1128
+ 00:40
1129
+ 00:40
1130
+ always exactly in the direction they want to go mm-hmm
1131
+ 总是准确地朝着他们想去的方向嗯嗯
1132
+ just for folks that are listening to this inner maybe single founder is
1133
+ 只适合那些正在倾听这位内心的人,也许是单身创始人
1134
+ wondering how to meet co-founders how how did you guys originally all meet we
1135
+ 想知道如何认识联合创始人,你们最初是怎么认识我们的
1136
+ have a very funny story I would say no sorry go on
1137
+ 有一个非常有趣的故事我会说不抱歉继续
1138
+ so voodoo has four founders three of us went to college together
1139
+ 所以 Voodoo 有四个创始人 我们三个人一起上大学
1140
+ Oliver was actually that great above me and John who's one of our founders John
1141
+ 奥利弗实际上比我和约翰更伟大,他是我们的创始人之一约翰
1142
+ and I actually kind of decided we wanted
1143
+ 我实际上决定我们想要
1144
+ to start a company while we were juniors we had internships that summer that we
1145
+ 在我们大三的时候创办一家公司,那年夏天我们进行了实习
1146
+ like didn't like so we dropped them starting a company Oliver had graduated
1147
+ 喜欢不喜欢所以我们放弃了他们创办了一家公司奥利弗已经毕业
1148
+ already and had a job at teradata and we convinced him to quit his job and
1149
+ 已经在 Teradata 工作了,我们说服他辞职了
1150
+ move back to Claremont which is where we went to school and live in a house with
1151
+ 搬回克莱蒙特,那是我们上学的地方,住在一所房子里
1152
+ two people who were still in school so I I was doing training with teradata I'd
1153
+ 两个人还在学校,所以我正在使用 teradata 进行训练
1154
+
1155
+ 00:41
1156
+ 00:41
1157
+ been there I think for six weeks or something like that and I had to go quit
1158
+ 我想在那里呆了六个星期或类似的事情,我不得不退出
1159
+ basically during a training program and so that was difficult and then and then
1160
+ 基本上是在训练计划期间,所以这很困难,然后然后
1161
+ had to move basically across the street from the college I had just graduated is
1162
+ 基本上不得不搬到我刚毕业的大学街对面
1163
+ a bit humbling at the time but clearly sitting here I think the right decision
1164
+ 当时有点谦卑,但显然坐在这里我认为这是正确的决定
1165
+ well what was that pitch like because that that's another very common question
1166
+ 那个音调是什么样的,因为这是另一个非常常见的问题
1167
+ like how do I convince someone to join my team that's that's a really good
1168
+ 就像我如何说服某人加入我的团队,这真的很好
1169
+ question I'm interested in hearing Oliver's perspective beca