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"""
TFT-ASRO Training Pipeline.
Orchestrates the full training flow:
1. Build feature store from DB
2. Create TimeSeriesDataSet splits
3. Instantiate TFT-ASRO model
4. Train with PyTorch Lightning
5. Evaluate on test set with financial metrics
6. Persist model checkpoint and metadata
Usage:
python -m deep_learning.training.trainer --symbol HG=F
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import json
import logging
import warnings
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Optional
import numpy as np
from deep_learning.config import TFTASROConfig, get_tft_config
# pytorch_forecasting prescalers are fit on DataFrames but transform numpy arrays
# internally on every batch — this produces thousands of identical sklearn warnings.
warnings.filterwarnings(
"ignore",
message="X does not have valid feature names",
category=UserWarning,
module="sklearn",
)
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
def train_tft_model(
cfg: Optional[TFTASROConfig] = None,
use_asro: bool = True,
) -> dict:
"""
End-to-end TFT-ASRO training.
Returns:
Dict with metrics, checkpoint path, and feature importance.
"""
# pytorch_forecasting >=1.0 uses the unified `lightning` package.
# Importing from `pytorch_lightning` gives a different LightningModule
# base class, causing "model must be a LightningModule" at trainer.fit().
try:
import lightning.pytorch as pl
from lightning.pytorch.callbacks import EarlyStopping, LearningRateMonitor, ModelCheckpoint
except ImportError:
import pytorch_lightning as pl # type: ignore[no-redef]
from pytorch_lightning.callbacks import EarlyStopping, LearningRateMonitor, ModelCheckpoint # type: ignore[no-redef]
from app.db import SessionLocal, init_db
from deep_learning.data.feature_store import build_tft_dataframe
from deep_learning.data.dataset import build_datasets, create_dataloaders
from deep_learning.models.tft_copper import create_tft_model, get_variable_importance, format_prediction
from deep_learning.training.metrics import compute_all_metrics
from deep_learning.training.callbacks import CurriculumLossScheduler, SWACallback
if cfg is None:
cfg = get_tft_config()
# ---- 0a. Load Optuna best params if available ----
# When the hyperopt step ran before this trainer, it writes best params to
# optuna_results.json. We apply those params over the default config so that
# the final training run actually benefits from the search.
cfg = _apply_optuna_results(cfg)
# ---- 0b. ASRO loss sanity check (runs before any training) ----
try:
from deep_learning.models.losses import debug_asro_loss_direction
debug = debug_asro_loss_direction()
logger.info(
"ASRO loss direction check: %s | "
"correct_dir loss=%.4f sharpe=%.4f | "
"anti_dir loss=%.4f sharpe=%.4f | "
"zero loss=%.4f sharpe=%.4f",
debug["diagnostics"],
debug["results"]["correct_direction"]["loss"],
debug["results"]["correct_direction"]["strategy_sharpe"],
debug["results"]["anti_direction"]["loss"],
debug["results"]["anti_direction"]["strategy_sharpe"],
debug["results"]["zero_predictions"]["loss"],
debug["results"]["zero_predictions"]["strategy_sharpe"],
)
if not debug["passed"]:
logger.error("ASRO loss direction check FAILED — stopping training")
return {"error": "ASRO loss check failed", "debug": debug}
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("Could not run ASRO debug check: %s", exc)
init_db()
pl.seed_everything(cfg.training.seed)
# ---- 1. Feature store ----
logger.info("Building feature store ...")
with SessionLocal() as session:
master_df, tv_unknown, tv_known, target_cols, _ = build_tft_dataframe(session, cfg)
logger.info("Master DataFrame: %d rows x %d cols", *master_df.shape)
# ---- 2. Datasets ----
training_ds, validation_ds, test_ds = build_datasets(
master_df, tv_unknown, tv_known, target_cols, cfg,
)
train_dl, val_dl, test_dl = create_dataloaders(training_ds, validation_ds, test_ds, cfg)
# ---- 3. Model ----
model = create_tft_model(training_ds, cfg, use_asro=use_asro)
# Log active config so every run is fully reproducible from logs
n_batches = len(train_dl)
total_params = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters())
trainable_params = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters() if p.requires_grad)
logger.info(
"Training config | hidden=%d hidden_cont=%d dropout=%.2f "
"heads=%d lr=%.0e clip=%.1f",
cfg.model.hidden_size, cfg.model.hidden_continuous_size,
cfg.model.dropout, cfg.model.attention_head_size,
cfg.model.learning_rate, cfg.model.gradient_clip_val,
)
logger.info(
"Training data | samples=%d batch_size=%d batches/epoch=%d "
"patience=%d w_quantile=%.2f w_sharpe=%.2f lambda_vol=%.2f",
len(training_ds), cfg.training.batch_size, n_batches,
cfg.training.early_stopping_patience,
cfg.asro.lambda_quantile, 1.0 - cfg.asro.lambda_quantile,
cfg.asro.lambda_vol,
)
logger.info(
"Model params | total=%s trainable=%s",
f"{total_params:,}", f"{trainable_params:,}",
)
# ---- 4. Callbacks ----
ckpt_dir = Path(cfg.training.checkpoint_dir)
ckpt_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
callbacks = [
EarlyStopping(
monitor="val_loss",
patience=cfg.training.early_stopping_patience,
mode="min",
verbose=True,
),
LearningRateMonitor(logging_interval="epoch"),
ModelCheckpoint(
dirpath=str(ckpt_dir),
filename="tft-asro-{epoch:02d}-{val_loss:.4f}",
monitor="val_loss",
mode="min",
save_top_k=3,
save_last=True,
),
]
if use_asro:
callbacks.append(CurriculumLossScheduler(
warmup_epochs=10,
initial_lambda_quantile=0.65,
target_lambda_quantile=cfg.asro.lambda_quantile,
initial_lambda_madl=0.05,
target_lambda_madl=cfg.asro.lambda_madl,
))
callbacks.append(SWACallback(swa_start_pct=0.75))
# log_every_n_steps must not exceed the number of training batches
log_steps = max(1, min(5, n_batches))
# ---- 5. Train ----
trainer = pl.Trainer(
max_epochs=cfg.training.max_epochs,
accelerator="auto",
gradient_clip_val=cfg.model.gradient_clip_val,
callbacks=callbacks,
enable_progress_bar=True,
log_every_n_steps=log_steps,
)
logger.info("Starting TFT-ASRO training ...")
trainer.fit(model, train_dataloaders=train_dl, val_dataloaders=val_dl)
# ---- 6. Best checkpoint ----
best_path = trainer.checkpoint_callback.best_model_path
if best_path:
final_path = Path(cfg.training.best_model_path)
final_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
import shutil
shutil.copy2(best_path, final_path)
logger.info("Best model saved to %s (val_loss=%.6f)", final_path, trainer.checkpoint_callback.best_model_score)
else:
final_path = Path(cfg.training.best_model_path)
# ---- 7. Evaluate on test set (Snapshot Ensemble) ----
# Use the top-k checkpoints saved by ModelCheckpoint and take the
# element-wise median of their predictions. This smooths stochastic
# outliers and improves directional robustness (REG-2026-001 P2-2).
test_metrics = {}
if test_dl is not None:
import torch
from deep_learning.models.tft_copper import load_tft_model
# Collect actual values (same regardless of which model predicts)
y_actual_parts = []
for batch in test_dl:
y_actual_parts.append(
batch[1][0] if isinstance(batch[1], (list, tuple)) else batch[1]
)
y_actual = torch.cat(y_actual_parts).cpu().numpy().flatten()
# Gather top-k checkpoint paths
best_k = getattr(trainer.checkpoint_callback, "best_k_models", {})
ckpt_paths = sorted(best_k.keys(), key=lambda p: best_k[p]) if best_k else []
# Always include the just-trained model as a baseline
all_pred_arrays = []
def _predict_to_np(mdl):
pred = mdl.predict(test_dl, return_x=True)
pt = pred.output if hasattr(pred, "output") else pred
return pt.cpu().numpy() if hasattr(pt, "cpu") else np.array(pt)
# Predictions from the best model (already in memory)
all_pred_arrays.append(_predict_to_np(model))
# Load additional checkpoints for ensemble
for cp in ckpt_paths:
if str(cp) == str(best_path):
continue # already have this one
try:
ckpt_model = load_tft_model(str(cp))
all_pred_arrays.append(_predict_to_np(ckpt_model))
del ckpt_model
except Exception as exc:
logger.debug("Skipping ensemble checkpoint %s: %s", cp, exc)
ensemble_size = len(all_pred_arrays)
logger.info(
"Snapshot Ensemble: %d model(s) for test evaluation", ensemble_size,
)
# Element-wise median across all models
if ensemble_size >= 2:
pred_np = np.median(np.stack(all_pred_arrays, axis=0), axis=0)
else:
pred_np = all_pred_arrays[0]
median_idx = len(cfg.model.quantiles) // 2
if pred_np.ndim == 3:
y_pred_median = pred_np[:, 0, median_idx]
y_pred_q10 = pred_np[:, 0, 1] if pred_np.shape[2] > 2 else None
y_pred_q90 = pred_np[:, 0, -2] if pred_np.shape[2] > 2 else None
y_pred_q02 = pred_np[:, 0, 0] if pred_np.shape[2] > 2 else None
y_pred_q98 = pred_np[:, 0, -1] if pred_np.shape[2] > 2 else None
else:
y_pred_median = pred_np.flatten()
y_pred_q10 = y_pred_q90 = y_pred_q02 = y_pred_q98 = None
n = min(len(y_actual), len(y_pred_median))
test_metrics = compute_all_metrics(
y_actual[:n],
y_pred_median[:n],
y_pred_q10=y_pred_q10[:n] if y_pred_q10 is not None else None,
y_pred_q90=y_pred_q90[:n] if y_pred_q90 is not None else None,
y_pred_q02=y_pred_q02[:n] if y_pred_q02 is not None else None,
y_pred_q98=y_pred_q98[:n] if y_pred_q98 is not None else None,
)
test_metrics["ensemble_size"] = ensemble_size
logger.info("Test metrics: %s", {k: f"{v:.4f}" for k, v in test_metrics.items()})
# ---- 8. Variable importance ----
var_importance = get_variable_importance(model, val_dataloader=val_dl)
# ---- 9. Persist metadata ----
result = {
"checkpoint_path": str(final_path),
"test_metrics": test_metrics,
"variable_importance": var_importance,
"config": {
"hidden_size": cfg.model.hidden_size,
"attention_head_size": cfg.model.attention_head_size,
"dropout": cfg.model.dropout,
"quantiles": list(cfg.model.quantiles),
"use_asro": use_asro,
"lambda_vol": cfg.asro.lambda_vol,
"lambda_quantile": cfg.asro.lambda_quantile,
"max_encoder_length": cfg.model.max_encoder_length,
"max_prediction_length": cfg.model.max_prediction_length,
},
"n_unknown_features": len(tv_unknown),
"n_known_features": len(tv_known),
"train_samples": len(training_ds),
"trained_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
}
_persist_tft_metadata(cfg.feature_store.target_symbol, result)
# Write metadata JSON to disk for CI quality gate
meta_json_path = Path(cfg.training.best_model_path).parent / "tft_metadata.json"
try:
meta_json_path.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2, default=str))
logger.info("Training metadata written to %s", meta_json_path)
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("Could not write metadata JSON: %s", exc)
# ---- 10. Upload to HF Hub (for persistence across HF Space rebuilds) ----
try:
from deep_learning.models.hub import upload_tft_artifacts
tft_dir = final_path.parent
uploaded = upload_tft_artifacts(
local_dir=tft_dir,
repo_id=cfg.training.hf_model_repo,
commit_message=f"TFT-ASRO checkpoint (val_loss={trainer.checkpoint_callback.best_model_score:.4f})"
if trainer.checkpoint_callback.best_model_score
else "TFT-ASRO checkpoint",
)
result["hub_uploaded"] = uploaded
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("HF Hub upload skipped: %s", exc)
result["hub_uploaded"] = False
return result
def _apply_optuna_results(cfg: TFTASROConfig) -> TFTASROConfig:
"""
If an optuna_results.json exists in the checkpoint directory, overlay the
best hyperparameters onto cfg and return the updated config. This connects
the hyperopt step to the final training run so search results are not wasted.
"""
import json
from dataclasses import replace
from deep_learning.config import ASROConfig, TFTModelConfig, TrainingConfig
# optuna_results.json is saved at tft/ root (alongside best_tft_asro.ckpt),
# not inside the checkpoints/ subdirectory.
results_path = Path(cfg.training.best_model_path).parent / "optuna_results.json"
if not results_path.exists():
return cfg
try:
data = json.loads(results_path.read_text())
params = data.get("best_params", {})
if not params:
return cfg
model_overrides = {
k: params[k] for k in (
"hidden_size", "attention_head_size", "dropout",
"hidden_continuous_size", "learning_rate",
"gradient_clip_val", "max_encoder_length",
"weight_decay",
) if k in params
}
asro_overrides = {
k: params[k] for k in ("lambda_vol", "lambda_quantile", "lambda_madl")
if k in params
}
training_overrides = {
k: params[k] for k in ("batch_size",) if k in params
}
new_model = replace(cfg.model, **model_overrides) if model_overrides else cfg.model
new_asro = replace(cfg.asro, **asro_overrides) if asro_overrides else cfg.asro
new_training = replace(cfg.training, **training_overrides) if training_overrides else cfg.training
logger.info(
"Loaded Optuna best params (trial #%d, val_loss=%.4f): %s",
data.get("best_trial", -1),
data.get("best_value", float("nan")),
params,
)
return replace(cfg, model=new_model, asro=new_asro, training=new_training)
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("Could not apply Optuna results: %s", exc)
return cfg
def _persist_tft_metadata(symbol: str, result: dict) -> None:
"""Save TFT model metadata to DB."""
try:
from app.db import SessionLocal
from app.models import TFTModelMetadata
with SessionLocal() as session:
existing = session.query(TFTModelMetadata).filter(
TFTModelMetadata.symbol == symbol
).first()
if existing:
existing.config_json = json.dumps(result.get("config", {}))
existing.metrics_json = json.dumps(result.get("test_metrics", {}))
existing.checkpoint_path = result.get("checkpoint_path", "")
existing.trained_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
else:
session.add(TFTModelMetadata(
symbol=symbol,
config_json=json.dumps(result.get("config", {})),
metrics_json=json.dumps(result.get("test_metrics", {})),
checkpoint_path=result.get("checkpoint_path", ""),
))
session.commit()
logger.info("TFT metadata persisted for %s", symbol)
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning("Could not persist TFT metadata: %s", exc)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# CLI
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
if __name__ == "__main__":
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s %(levelname)s %(message)s")
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Train TFT-ASRO model")
parser.add_argument("--symbol", default="HG=F")
parser.add_argument("--no-asro", action="store_true", help="Use standard QuantileLoss instead of ASRO")
args = parser.parse_args()
cfg = get_tft_config()
result = train_tft_model(cfg, use_asro=not args.no_asro)
print("\n" + "=" * 60)
print("TFT-ASRO TRAINING COMPLETE")
print("=" * 60)
for k, v in result.get("test_metrics", {}).items():
print(f" {k}: {v:.4f}")
print(f"\nCheckpoint: {result.get('checkpoint_path')}")